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By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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March is going to be an important month for the economy and markets with the Fed and Bank of Canada (BoC) set to kick-off a new interest rate tightening cycle. I don’t envy their roles and the hard decisions that lay ahead as they contend with multiple crosscurrents and threats.
Over the last 10+ years we’ve been fortunate to have fairly low inflation in North America – roughly around 2%. In a way we’ve been lulled into a false sense of security, thinking that inflation and interest rates will always remain low. Well those days look to be over.
Currently, US inflation is at 7.5% y/y (5.1% in Canada), levels not seen since the 1980s. Initially, it was rising prices for oil, gasoline and other commodities but this has spread out to numerous items that people consume in their daily lives. Meat prices in the US are up 24% y/y, used vehicles are up 26% and now wages are on the rise. According to Moody’s, these price increases amount to an extra $250 a month in expenses for the average American household.
So the Fed (and BoC) has to act and quickly by hiking interest rates to help curb these inflationary pressures. As we saw in the early 1980s, once the ‘inflation genie’ is out of the bottle, it’s hard to get it back in.
US Inflation is up 7.5% Y/Y
Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
But as the Fed and BoC begin to hike rates this brings in a number of risks and challenges for the economy.
First, is the impact of higher rates on all the outstanding debt. The US federal debt continues to surge, which I have been railing against for years now. Since Covid-19 hit in early 2020, US federal government debt has risen by nearly 30% to now $30 trillion. At a 2% interest rate that translates into $600 billion of interest charges and almost a trillion dollars if rates get to 3%. As interest expenses rise this can crowd out other government spending.
US Federal Government Debt is Up 30% Since Covid-19
Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Second, is the impact of rising rates on the housing market. Similar to Canada, US housing prices have surged over the last year and are up 19% y/y. US housing contributes roughly 15-18% to GDP through direct residential investment (3-5%) and through spending on housing services (12-13%). So as mortgage rates rise this could start to weigh on housing and the overall economy.
Finally, the senseless and horrific invasion of Ukraine will also make the Fed and BoC’s jobs harder. As a result of the war (‘peacekeepers’, what a joke!) and sanctions on the Russian economy this will likely weigh on global growth while contributing to the already worrisome inflation picture.
Oil prices have jumped on this invasion/war and some are calling for oil prices to hit US$120/bl in the near-term. We’ve also seen wheat and corn futures spike with Ukraine and Russia responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s wheat and corn production.
So with the high inflation readings the Fed and BoC has to act now with rate hikes before it gets out of control. However, the Fed needs to consider these crosscurrents in their rate decisions.
With the invasion of Ukraine the prospect of a 50 bp increase is now completely off the table for this meeting. Fed Fund futures are now pricing in six rate hikes by the end of the year but if this conflict continues then we could see the Fed pare this back.
Regardless, rates are going higher and the Fed and BoC will be a walking a fine line in the coming months as they balance the inflation pressures with all these other factors.
Futures Point to Six Rates Hikes in 2022
Source: Bloomberg
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.
111 comments ↓
The FEDS won’t raise rates until maybe Q4 at earliest.
Inflation will soon be called the “normal” price, we already know the transitory thing is B.S.
Corporate profits will rise, wages will rise, and as usual the rich will just keep getting richer.
If the history is of any lesson, it is worth studying the charts through the exogenous market shocks recorded in the past.
500% moves in markets follow inflation.
https://twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1497285223045861377/photo/1
Remember….. at the end of the day it’s all just monopoly money. There’s an endless supply of it.
With the weakness at the BoC’s last opportunity to raise rates will they go up by at least 50 basis points? I hope so.
Hello, thanks for the Info Mr. Fluenza.
What is your take on real inflation being closer to 20-30% rather than those fictional CPI numbers, based simply on the observation that money supply was increased by approx. 20-30% by both the BoC and Fed?
My fear is increasing M2 is akin to “diluting” the value of shares outstanding in a public company.
Taylor Swift being banned from Russia is the only good thing that is going to come out of all this…
M47BC
Some excellent points Ryan.
The huge govt debt, inflation and interest rate increases….
Then a black swan event of war…
Govt rate increase rock …meets…. recession?
I’m staying invested and will continue to invest, with zero debt and starting to load up on a bit of extra cash.
1 or 2 years from now may offer some deals.
So, what will rising rates do to the stock market when the economy is the most indebted evah?
Thanks Ryan for the great overview of what most likely is ahead this year. Look forward to any guidance you might share in terms of navigating these rough waters. Specifically as someone near retirement, the inflation rate is a big factor. I am wondering if I should assume a higher structural inflation rate going forward.
Haha there will be no rate hikes Ryan. Perhaps one or two for show followed by reversals once the S**t hits the fan. This blog has predicted rising borrowing costs for years and something always stops the CBs. In fact I argue they don’t want to raise rates or they would have by now as they’ve had 10 years to raise.
Russia tracking ETF touched 2020 lows.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RSX&p=w&tas=0
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#111 DENNIS BENDER on 02.26.22 at 4:21 am
Trudeau just declared war on Russia. Trudeau wants Russia removed from Swift. Wow.
^^
The wags and internet Consp. Theorists tell us we are living a reset, and that World Wars end with usually a currency reset or a country being plunged into debts, or bankrupted or fun stuff like this.
This IS WW3 – and it kicked of March 2020.
But we are so close to back to normal guys! Feb 2019 here we come. Probably Just Two More Weeks.
–
– How many here believe that Russia is in the wrong. Put up your hands.
Ok, how many of the Russian soldiers have defected or deserted or refused orders. Exactly.
Rightly or wrongly there always will be people willing to fight for their cause. That was my point with truckers. I’m not saying support them I’m saying it proves that people — even in this country — will fight for ‘a’ cause in strength.
Hello Dawgs, I need some help. I see National Bank of Ukraine has set up a special account to help defend Ukraine. But I can’t figure out how to actually donate. I have a BMO account, but it looks like I’d have to wire transfer the money. But if I do that, it looks like the recipient would need my account number and some other info to actually be able to receive the cash. Sorry but not sorry in advance for the blonde… I’ve never done a wire transfer before and I tried to call BMO but there’s a FIVE (5) hour wait! Here’s the info they give you on their site:
https://ukraine.ua/news/donate-to-the-nbu-fund/
For CAD remittances:
BENEFICIARY: National Bank of Ukraine
BENEFICIARY BIC: NBUA UA UX
BENEFICIARY ADDRESS: 9 Instytutska St, Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine
ACCOUNT NUMBER: 3144-1044-166
BENEFICIARY BANK NAME: BANK OF MONTREAL, Toronto
BENEFICIARY BANK BIC: BOFMCAM2
BENEFICIARY BANK ADDRESS: 100 King Street West, 24th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5X 1A1, Canada
PURPOSE OF PAYMENT: for crediting account 47330992708
So if anyone knows, please let me know the best way to do this and what exact information I need to provide to ensure they get the cash. If it is even still safe to do so (don’t want $ falling into the wrong hands).
The 1/2 pt increase was a sure bet until the Ukraine invasion wiped that off the table and put in doubt the pace and number of rate increases going forward.
This confirms the future is unknown. It’s rosy until it’s not. The FED is out of bullets and in a pickle. Move too quick and we crash. Move too slow and the greater the risk becomes of combating the next economic shock.
If I had to choose between the two evils, I would take the more aggressive move now. It will slow the economic recovery caused by covid but the operative word here is recovery. Waiting too long risks another black swan event with almost zero rates, a far worse scenario to deal with.
Sorry, SCRATCH THAT!
Finally got through to someone via Western Union, and all transfers to Ukraine have been suspended “temporarily.”
SH!T, something very bad is brewing.
“So the Fed (and BoC) has to act and quickly by hiking interest rates to help curb these inflationary pressures. As we saw in the early 1980s, once the ‘inflation genie’ is out of the bottle, it’s hard to get it back in.”
“So with the high inflation readings the Fed and BoC has to act now with rate hikes before it gets out of control. However, the Fed needs to consider these crosscurrents in their rate decisions.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
This is getting way too funny around here at this late stage.
…And so the Fed has to act now with rate hikes before inflation gets out of control you say.
I began saying this with regard to the Fed 2 years ago here and railed on it ever since.
… the Fed (and BoC) has to act and quickly by hiking interest rates to help curb these inflationary pressures. As we saw in the early 1980s, once the ‘inflation genie’ is out of the bottle, it’s hard to get it back in.
-You don’t say…hmmm
-Are you joking?
I’ve been posting comment on this message board non stop this past year in how the time for the Fed to curb inflationary pressures is long past. The inflation genie’s well out of the bottle and it’s not going back in.
All I can continue to say, as I’ve said a hundred times already…A few quarter point interest rate increases or even half point increases this year, won’t put a dent in inflation sitting at , even the manipulated and phony, CPI rate of 7.5
I’ve said over and over, because of the national debt , interest rates cannot be set near high enough to offset inflation. The Fed knows interest rates need to be set at or near the inflation rate to begin cooling inflation. And with those kind of rates in these times of unprecedented National debt , they would bury the markets and the economy.
The Fed knows its past the point of no return and they know they created this mess to begin with.
Their only alternative is to merely pretend they are attempting to get inflation under control with the most timid of measures possible. Doing so as not to greatly roil the markets, or cause a recession. Doing that by raising rates a paltry quarter point a few times in 2022. They have nothing but games and juggling acts left in their arsenal to cool inflation.
Now they’ll fiddle with tiny increases and hope the masses will keep buying their utter bs.
They (the masses) will for a while longer, until inflation really begins to sink its teeth into the average consumer …then its game on.
There’s no catching this all the way out of the bottle genie by the tail. That time is past, thanks (no thanks) to the Fed.
Worth noting, inflation and wage pressures do not seem to be following the same trend in Canada. Apparently, we have significant vacancies, but wages are not rising. I think this will be a bigger deal here. I for one am asking for a large raise given average rental price for a 3 bed is now $4,000/mth.
hmmm.
A possible Poilievre vs Charest battle looming?
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/poilievre-vs-charest-a-conservative-leadership-race-where-sparks-could-fly
It is okay for housing and real estate prices to jump on average 10% to 15% per year over the last 10 to 20 years but if we see interest rates normalized like back in the late 90’s early to mid 2000’s, 4.5% to 6% GIC, bond rates, 5% to 7.5% mortgage rates then there is a problem.
This is total BS and the problem is out of control money printing, currency devaluation, higher taxes, higher inflation mainly in housing, energy, gas, utilities, property taxes, now spreading in many other areas from food, rent, gas etc. not interest rates in the 4% to 6% range.
“A fine line”
No, it’s an impossible line.
Inflation picks up steam quickly and grows exponentially very fast.
With an implied rate of 1.8 by 2023, inflation will continue to run hot, and real rates still below zero.
Central bankers have been castrated by politicians.
@#127 Tea man
“Have you considered changing your lame handle? How old are you? I was offended just typing it”
+++
Mission accomplished.
So happy to offend another Wokester.
:)
Do you have an opinion on anything else?
Inflation?
Interest rates?
The War in Ukraine?
Or is it all about your offended sensitivities?
Boo Hoo.
Grab another tissue.
#1 THE DANDADA
“Remember….. at the end of the day it’s all just monopoly money. There’s an endless supply of it.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Its people like you that believe/d in that is why we have un-repairable levels of runaway inflation that’s going to get worse , not better.
Believe what you want … at any rate, its your right to that matters most in a still free society.
My thought for the day :
Railroads and bridges leading into Ukraine from Russia have been destroyed. Roadways have been mined and booby trapped at choke points and are covered by Javelin missiles. Russian tanks and troops will run out of gas and ammo and will not get resupplied. Airfields have been cratered and are covered by Stinger missiles. The Russians will be trapped inside Ukraine. Internal resistance, sniping, roadside bombs, IEDs, and ambushes. Perhaps the Russian army will have to surrender. I am looking for a Go Fund me page so I can help the Ukrainians out a bit. I will use a low value bank account and hope T2 doesn’t freeze it.
Look back 50 years. Biden and Xi should be jointly putting pressure on Vlad the bad. The problem is there’s no Nixon.
willworkforpickles, your spot on. They need to aggressively raise rates to choke off inflation. The problem this presents is higher deficit financing which is totally bought up by the BOC anyway. Higher unemployment, business’s closing and tax revenue falling. Don’t raise rates and soon we get the Great Reset. The central banks have dug a hole so deep they can’t get out of it.
Update: The account info above is legit. I finally got in touch with Bank of Montréal, which confirmed the account is legit. Tried to do a global wire transfer online, but it didn’t work (probably because I need to update my crappy old phone). Don’t know why Western Union phone rep said the account had been temporarily suspended; it’s a BMO account and BMO said it had not been suspended. Someone should look into that further.
This invasion must not stand! To warn other potential bullies, for the sake of our kids and for the future of our democracies, Putin’s gamble must not be allowed to succeed, no matter the cost.
@Yukon Elvis
I provided a link above. You can wire $ through BMO that will go to a special fund to support the Ukranian defense effort.
Here it is again and the BMO account details for both US and CDN currency are listed on the page:
https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi
An excellent post, Ryan. The supply chain disruptions due to Covid had a flow through effect. In addition there have been climate based supply chain issues. Drought, fire, heat waves etc. have had a deleterious effect upon crops. In North America, many farmers ended up harvesting what crops they had to feed to livestock. Farmers also had to reduce livestock numbers as there simply wasn’t enough forage to feed them. The B.C. floods damaged farmland; in addition large numbers of livestock drowned. Folks might be able to put off purchasing ‘nice to have’ items like new vehicles etc., but everyone needs to eat.
@#20 Yukon Elvis.
I worked with a Ukrainian about 30 years ago.
He had spent 4 years conscripted in the Russian army as part of his compulsory service.
( make no mistake, there are THOUSANDS of ex military Ukrainian men that have been trained in Russian tactics… ).
We we watching the Bosnian Serb war unfold and there was one event that caught my eye.
A Russian special forces group parachuted into an airfield and seized it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport
The airport was immediately surrounded by NATO troops.
Power, water , etc was cut off to the airport.
After a tense standoff of a week or so the Russian troops began negotiations for food, water, etc.
I commented to my Ukrainian co-worker as to the lack of logistical planning to resupply the troops.
He smiled and said,
” Russian Generals don’t give a sh!t about their own men. It’s all about reaching the objective THEN they worry about getting the necessary supplies and reinforcements.”
This invasion is on a far grander scale but it will be interesting to see how the supply lines get affected.
Its one thing to conquer a country.
Its another thing to hold a country.
Putin may be a ruthless prick but…..he aint no General
THE DANDADA “ The FEDS won’t raise rates until maybe Q4 at earliest.”
What is that based on? The Feds have clearly indicated rates are going up imminently and inflation is above 7%. – Ryan L
Watertower “ Thanks Ryan for the great overview of what most likely is ahead this year. Look forward to any guidance you might share in terms of navigating these rough waters. Specifically as someone near retirement, the inflation rate is a big factor. I am wondering if I should assume a higher structural inflation rate going forward.”
Inflation will peak so we’re not looking at 6-7% inflation going forward. When doing financial plans for clients we used to use 2% long-term inflation and we’re probably looking at 3% average over next 5+ years. – Ryan L
RichardTO “ Hello, thanks for the Info Mr. Fluenza.
What is your take on real inflation being closer to 20-30% rather than those fictional CPI numbers, based simply on the observation that money supply was increased by approx. 20-30% by both the BoC and Fed?”
It’s probably above the 5% the government says it is but nowhere near 20-30%. You’re only looking at certain items like food and gas. Have you seen flight prices or the cost of TVs these days? – Ryan L
#22 Brian
Except for the great reset which i don’t agree with… All you have said in your comment is basically covered in what I’ve been saying here for at least the last 2 years and longer.
As well, unending deficit spending is inflationary and will continue to worsen.
#23 Cici
Be careful of donating anything online, all it takes is a change of mood by the powers that be and you are now supporting terrorists.
Just ask the people who supported the truckers and who are now being run out of their jobs for doing what every free person should be allowed to do.
Kind of like all those hero health care workers that we are now firing since the “pandemic” is winding down, 2500 workers let go and they will not release the number of “Heroic” doctors and nurses who will now be discarded like a used candy bar wrapper in the near future. Hero today, zero tomorrow.
R.L. quote: “We’ve also seen wheat and corn futures spike with Ukraine and Russia responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s wheat and corn production.”
==================
So, when is a good time to start discussion on moving foodstock production, corn, sugar beet, etc., from being a gasoline additive (ethanol) back into food security?
Cheers, R
Hey Cici.
I just got back from the bank, and they gave me $1000 of my own money, which means I no longer need you to donate me some funds.
You are my sister from another Mister…
M47BC
People criticize Biden for being weak imposing sanctions.
Sanctions are a long term game.
You need to have the resolve to starve half the Russian population to be successful and create internal regime change.
It is the people who can’t stomach that reality who are weak.
Enforce blockades with a concerted effort for however long it takes, they will come to the table. The Chinese will rip them off while they weaken.
The Kyiv [email protected]·1m⚡️
Germany to send 1,000 unspecified anti-tank weapons and 500 FIM-92 Stinger air defense missiles.
Russia’s all-out invasion is a turning point in Germany’s long-standing opposition to providing Ukraine with lethal weaponry, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said.
#33 Russ on 02.26.22 at 2:11 pm
R.L. quote: “We’ve also seen wheat and corn futures spike with Ukraine and Russia responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s wheat and corn production.”
==================
So, when is a good time to start discussion on moving foodstock production, corn, sugar beet, etc., from being a gasoline additive (ethanol) back into food security?
Cheers, R
*******************************
The pressure on fertilizer prices was discussed on this blog months ago. My wifes family farm locked in this summer at double past costs. This will be considered a bargain now. NG is a key fertilizer input. This attack on Ukraine will push food inflation much higher. I know PP, the poor can just go to the farmers market and buy organic rutabagas.
Canada does not include used cars in CPI figures but the United States does. If Canada’s figures included used cars it would probably be closer to the US figure which is higher. ( https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-the-pandemic-drove-up-used-car-prices-in-canada-but-the-impact-on/ )
The price of grain rising could cause more political instability in poor countries like Egypt where food cost makes up a huge percentage of people’s total expenditures.
#29 Ryan Lewenza
“Inflation will peak so we’re not looking at 6-7% inflation going forward. When doing financial plans for clients we used to use 2% long-term inflation and we’re probably looking at 3% average over next 5+ years.” – Ryan L
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
No you shouldn’t be looking at 6-7% inflation but much higher inflation going forward.
…3% average over the next 5+ years?
You really are dreaming now.
About the scary US debt. Inflation makes the real value of the debt decline. Basically bond holders are subsidizing the US government whenever US government bond rates are lower than the rate of inflation. Of coarse if the government is borrowing a lot more every year (which it is) than the real value of the debt can still go up.
Very lucky at times like this.
Australia is surrounded by shark filled oceans.
Canada is surrounded by obese rednecks.
These are our protectors.
This is what the Unofficial Australian National Anthem would sound like under Russian rule…
M47BC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etOq30rF0gE
#30 Ryan Lewenza
“It’s probably above the 5% the government says it is but nowhere near 20-30%. You’re only looking at certain items like food and gas. Have you seen flight prices or the cost of TVs these days?” – Ryan L
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
No. The real rate of inflation stateside anyway (Canada not far behind) is double that of the manipulated CPI rate at 7.5% with more to come likely to 10% CPI figures later this year.
The Fed doesn’t have even the tools left to manipulate the CPI rate any further, as rising costs at the checkout counter blasts holes in that worse than a rural Kansas town limits sign.
#33 Russ has a great point. It is time to dial back those ethanol requirements. Higher food costs cause political instability in poor countries which may cause more inflation here.
I would also exempt truckers from the border vaccine mandates as crossing the border does not put you at much higher risk of catching COVID19. Preventing 10% of drivers from crossing the border is inflationary. Since it raises the cost of healthy food from the USA and Mexico it may even be counter productive from a public health perspective.
Finally we need to build Energy East. Having our East coast dependent on Russian oil is a totally unnecessary risk to our economy.
This is just to confirm that my wire transfer to Ukraine went through, and the account cited through the link above is a legitimate account operated by BMO and then transferred to National Bank of Ukraine.
#32 millmech on 02.26.22 at 2:10 pm
I hear you but I’ll take the risk. This is a very serious situation.
Lots of refugees pouring over into Poland at the moment too. They will need food, water and other provisions very soon.
There will also be a dire need for emergency medical supplies and first responders over the coming days and weeks too.
Give generously if you can!
#20 Yukon Elvis on 02.26.22 at 12:39 pm
My thought for the day :
Railroads and bridges leading into Ukraine from Russia have been destroyed. Roadways have been mined and booby trapped at choke points and are covered by Javelin missiles. Russian tanks and troops will run out of gas and ammo and will not get resupplied. Airfields have been cratered and are covered by Stinger missiles. The Russians will be trapped inside Ukraine. Internal resistance, sniping, roadside bombs, IEDs, and ambushes. Perhaps the Russian army will have to surrender. I am looking for a Go Fund me page so I can help the Ukrainians out a bit. I will use a low value bank account and hope T2 doesn’t freeze it.
——————–
Ever heard of the AirForce?
The American AirForce took the Iraqi army in 3 days.
According to American “Intelligence”, the Iraqi Army was the 5th strongest at that time.
Who knows where The Ukraine stands militarily?
#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.26.22 at 10:16 am
Some excellent points Ryan.
The huge govt debt, inflation and interest rate increases….
Then a black swan event of war…
Govt rate increase rock …meets…. recession?
I’m staying invested and will continue to invest, with zero debt and starting to load up on a bit of extra cash.
1 or 2 years from now may offer some deals.
——————-
CEF, a few more finance courses, and you can apply to join Garth’s gang.
Or at least get a coveted spot on the weekend rotation.
Almost there, buddy.
#41 Flop Canada is surrounded by obese rednecks.
I see a lot of obese double masked people every day!
#12 Cici on 02.26.22 at 11:05 am
Sorry, SCRATCH THAT!
Finally got through to someone via Western Union, and all transfers to Ukraine have been suspended “temporarily.”
SH!T, something very bad is brewing.
——————
You are lucky.
Your “donation” would have gone straight into Putin’s bank account to finance his new DACHA on the Black Sea.
Well, that’s what the rumor mill is saying.
Very good summary of economic affairs with what we know as of today Ryan.
ONE THING: the economic impact of targeted or the complete ban of Russia from SWIFT?
Canada has said that it supports this, per Trudeau today. *
Expect the unexpected this time, war.
——————
Quote of the Day:
Zelensky refuses U.S. offer to evacuate, saying ‘I need ammunition, not a ride’
Some good humour with the bad news of war (so true reading Amerian Tweets the past 24 h):
https://babylonbee.com/news/americans-will-now-be-required-to-identify-ukraine-on-a-map-before-being-able-to-post-opinion-on-ukraine
also,
https://babylonbee.com/news/russians-unveil-new-tank-that-opens-up-to-reveal-consecutively-smaller-tanks
——————
* Germans last to hold out on this in the EU. A few hours ago they agreed to a targeted SWIFT ban of Russia. And they to now are sending arms etc. to the Ukraine.
America the beautiful still has to agree to the SWIFT ban.
A UNITED EUROPA + BREXIT sending money, arms, you name it to the UKRAINE. We are UNITED in this as am I.
As for Russian fuels to Europa, I WOULD RATHER FREEZE than give that War Criminal Putin the satisfaction.
Claudio Cerasa said it well today:
“There are no penalties that have no cost. This applies to energy imports. For SWIFT. For luxury. The question therefore is: if we are neither ready to fight on the ground nor to govern economic sacrifices, what credibility do we expect to have in the future and in the immediate future?”
Applies to you too Canada:
https://twitter.com/OilsandsAction/status/1497599165978726404
and America (imports 150,000 to 200,000 barrels of Russian oil and about 500,000 barrels of refined products a day):
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIM_NUS-NRS_1&f=M
#37 Don Guillermo on 02.26.22 at 3:03 pm
#33 Russ on 02.26.22 at 2:11 pm
R.L. quote: “We’ve also seen wheat and corn futures spike with Ukraine and Russia responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s wheat and corn production.”
==================
So, when is a good time to start discussion on moving foodstock production, corn, sugar beet, etc., from being a gasoline additive (ethanol) back into food security?
Cheers, R
*******************************
The pressure on fertilizer prices was discussed on this blog months ago. My wifes family farm locked in this summer at double past costs. This will be considered a bargain now. NG is a key fertilizer input. This attack on Ukraine will push food inflation much higher. I know PP, the poor can just go to the farmers market and buy organic rutabagas.
————-
Hey Donny,
Good to see you’re still alive.
Started to worry about you.
Well, there are lots of community gardens sprouting up in the LML.
It just takes someone to take charge and make sure that veggies grown there are being distributed to the needy, and not left to rotten.
Not saying its the solution, but a good start.
Also, food bank customers should go through needs test, so that only the real needy are allowed to use them.
Too many people driving Teslas using them, I hear.
Just to put your mind at ease, I’m happy to report that we’ve expanded our small backyard garden, sacrificing some flower space for the veggies which are full of potent vitamins, minerals, and anti-inflammatory substances.
In conclusion, I am glad to hear your wife and yourself will soon be back in Beautiful Alberta.
And providing Canadians with much need agricultural stuff.
Thank you for your service.
Your’s truly
The little Austrian Ruttabaga.
The Kyiv [email protected]·12m⚡️
BREAKING: German government says allies cutting Russia out of SWIFT
For the NON SWIFT Literati, what the EU will do (other stuff too like no more Russian Golder Passports) *:
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1497696413492334599
Basically, financial transactions for Russia back to email and the phone.
* Read the last panel. Not done with Russia the Invaders yet.
von der Leyen laying the boots to Vlad:
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497694812018991112
America just agreed to ban Russia from SWIFT 2 min ago:
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1497702751693901827
and America to freeze Russian Central Bank assets, $643 billion (unconfirmed yet):
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497701621345800198
—————-
All the way, USA.
One last thing for today, well unless the European Union declares war on Russia is this:
ELON ROCKS !!!
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1497701484003213317
Why is he doing it?
Twitter, FB reporting Russia trying to shut down Internet service & accounts that are telling the truth about what they are doing in the Ukraine.
People this AM asked Elon to divert Starlink to them. For that I hope his stock DOUBLES.
Also, Twitter, FB doing all they can to thwart Russian attempts at internal censorship.
@#46 Ponzie’s Praise
“CEF, a few more finance courses, and you can apply to join Garth’s gang.
Or at least get a coveted spot on the weekend rotation.
Almost there, buddy.”
+++
Thanks buddy.
I knew you’d come around to recognize natural born, unsophisticated, uneducated, brilliance…..
Please pass that on to Tea man.
Sorry, for the DONATION CHALLENGED here…
https://twitter.com/VancityReynolds/status/1497639815185055750?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497639815185055750%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ctvnews.ca%2Fcanada%2Fcanadians-including-ryan-reynolds-opening-wallets-to-support-ukraine-1.5797633
https://give.unrefugees.org/220224ukr_emer_d_4983?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=generalmedia&utm_campaign=US_PS_EN_UA___220225&utm_content=support&SF_onetime=7011K0000022eOkQAI&SF_monthly=7011K0000022eOpQAI
Sorry, for the DONATION CHALLENGED here…
For Sail Away and Americans…prior Comment.
#19 willworkforpickles on 02.26.22 at 12:33 pm
“What you said two years ago” is what everyone already knew: inflation would go up. That’s not enlightening or useful at all. That’s why there has been such a rush into assets over the past decade.
This will continue.
Everyone also knows rates are rising. Those who are smart will pay attention to how to build and preserve their wealth throughout the coming hike cycle (b and d portfolio and buying dirt the moment they can afford to).
Listening to the hyperbolic rhetoric from Reddit, Facebook, and YouTube videos about imminent hyperinflation and 1980’s level rate hikes is what will do the exact opposite.
IDK
you fail to mention the inflation we’re seeing is a direct result of central bank policies. they are the sole cause of inflation. they enable governments to borrow trillions at low rates. they enable home owners to borrow and big house prices ever higher.
commodity prices rising can’t cause inflation without an increase in the money supply. crude going to $150, in the absence of more printed money, will only take away spending from other parts of the economy. same with corn, wheat, copper etc. Russia in invading Ukraine doesn’t cause inflation.
central banks are the root cause of inflation.
so unless you understand that first, you can’t get anywhere in the discussion.
there is no “fine line” here.
“Currently, US inflation is at 7.5% y/y (5.1% in Canada), levels not seen since the 1980s.”
i really dislike the terminology as an economist. These numbers are not “inflation” they are CPI – Consumer Price Index.
by definition, it does not measure all prices in the economy nor does it measure asset prices. All the CPI does is capture a variety of consumer prices. That is it.
if my house has gone from $1M to $2M in the last 5 years, a 15% compounded increase in price, that’s NOT reflected in CPI…
you know what IS reflected? interest rates went down, and so the cost to carry my mortgage decreased, and so, we have deflation …
it’s a whole load of baloney …
so, CPI does NOT equate to inflation.
inflation in the true sense of the word for economic purposes is the “inflation of the money supply” .
for years, money has been going to assets NOT measured by CPI. so, for decades, the CPI has been 2% +/-, has not reflected actual inflation. money going into real estate, stocks and bonds and even collectibles, does not show up in CPI.
but now, they have printed SO much money, have sent cheques to almost EVERYONE, CERB, etc that its no longer possible to hide what’s happening.
the cat is out of the bag, and unless drastic steps are taken, a-la Volcker, we’re in for a bad few years.
Anyone here receiving an OMERS pension?
How much extra are you getting due to inflation?
Is it capped?
The Kyiv [email protected]·4m⚡️
Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system providing internet access is now active in Ukraine.
Russian Tanks out of fuel on the highway.
Ukrainian offers to tow them back to Russia.
They laughed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14gVDF2b1vA
One wonders how many of these Russian soldiers think this is an absolute farce dreamt up by Putin and his corrupt cronies..
After two years of Covid restrictions aren’t you rightfully pissed?
How about we take it out on Putin, free Ukraine and protect democracy and freedom.
Now that sound like a plan!
Gee.
“Russian commanders didnt plan for Logistical support…”
Where have I heard that before?
++++
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-forces-frustrated-by-viable-ukrainian-resistance-us-official-2022-02-26/
Its a shame the Ukrainians didnt have more anti tank missiles.
The Russians are running out of fuel….. everywhere.
Sitting ducks.
Putin’s an idiot.
#50 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.26.22 at 5:29 pm
#37 Don Guillermo on 02.26.22 at 3:03 pm
#33 Russ on 02.26.22 at 2:11 pm
R.L. quote: “We’ve also seen wheat and corn futures spike with Ukraine and Russia responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s wheat and corn production.”
==================
So, when is a good time to start discussion on moving foodstock production, corn, sugar beet, etc., from being a gasoline additive (ethanol) back into food security?
Cheers, R
*******************************
The pressure on fertilizer prices was discussed on this blog months ago. My wifes family farm locked in this summer at double past costs. This will be considered a bargain now. NG is a key fertilizer input. This attack on Ukraine will push food inflation much higher. I know PP, the poor can just go to the farmers market and buy organic rutabagas.
————-
Hey Donny,
Good to see you’re still alive.
Started to worry about you.
Well, there are lots of community gardens sprouting up in the LML.
It just takes someone to take charge and make sure that veggies grown there are being distributed to the needy, and not left to rotten.
Not saying its the solution, but a good start.
Also, food bank customers should go through needs test, so that only the real needy are allowed to use them.
Too many people driving Teslas using them, I hear.
Just to put your mind at ease, I’m happy to report that we’ve expanded our small backyard garden, sacrificing some flower space for the veggies which are full of potent vitamins, minerals, and anti-inflammatory substances.
In conclusion, I am glad to hear your wife and yourself will soon be back in Beautiful Alberta.
And providing Canadians with much need agricultural stuff.
Thank you for your service.
Your’s truly
The little Austrian Ruttabaga.
******************************
Yes PP, we are back to beautiful AB mid April. We too grow back yard vegies but Calgary is a difficult place to garden. Obviously nothing like where you live but still fun to try. Just an hour east or north of YYC the growing greatly improves. The farm is 1 1/2 hrs east so produce and grains grow very well. I also support community gardens. We belong to one and have been in charge of common area produce for the food bank over the years. One good thing about sunny AB is that we rarely need to use the dryer even when temps are cool. Solar and wind powered clothes lines do the trick. We’re kind of green but I still love my IC wheels.
Saludos de Mexico (where clothes lines also work exceptionally well)
DG
Say, did anyone order a global Reset, one country at a time?
Just another day in the Global WW3.
What oh what do the Globalist elites have planned for this world:
Ursula von der Leyen
President of the @EU_Commission
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Second, we will paralyse the assets of Russia’s central bank.
This will freeze its transactions.
And it will make it impossible for the Central Bank to liquidate its assets.
I was told that Rogers and Shaw are merging. This means that Shaw employees will be laid off en masse. I have insider info on these things.
Rogers just reported shutting down their warehouses and distribution centres by the summer; they are cutting employees and laying off left, right and center.
The price for telecoms is an extortionate racket.
Whether you want to long Rogers and Shaw stock is up to you.
It seems that there is going to be a MASSIVE layoff this summer. Remember that Rogers and Shaw employ over 50,000 Canadians directly and indirectly in the GTA.
Re: Donating to the Ukraine:
Would it not be safer and smarter to donate to the Red Cross once the humanitarian crisis unfolds? Which it will.
Who knows where your money might go to a”Ukrainian Defence” effort?
#61 Yukon Elvis on 02.26.22 at 6:24 pm
The Kyiv [email protected]·4m⚡️
Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system providing internet access is now active in Ukraine.
———
Yep, that’s Elon to a tee. Similar to when he donated to the Flint water system repairs, and the more recent $6B to charity.
Also, I’m quite sure his satellite system includes top of the line surveillance and possibly weaponry for the US Defense Dept- probably all tracking Russia in real time.
When we are going to round up all Russians in Canada? I know a lot of them live in North York and Thornhill, Ontario.
@#67 Telus
“It seems that there is going to be a MASSIVE layoff this summer. Remember that Rogers and Shaw employ over 50,000 Canadians directly and indirectly in the GTA.”
+++
Hopefully all those city dwelling, Liberal voting Torontonians will put the blame where it belongs……on Trudeau.
Time to hollow out the urban Liberal strongholds…they’re starting to smell.
Vote accordingly.
#32 millmech on 02.26.22 at 2:10 pm
#23 Cici
Be careful of donating anything online, all it takes is a change of mood by the powers that be and you are now supporting terrorists.
Just ask the people who supported the truckers and who are now being run out of their jobs for doing what every free person should be allowed to do.
Kind of like all those hero health care workers that we are now firing since the “pandemic” is winding down, 2500 workers let go and they will not release the number of “Heroic” doctors and nurses who will now be discarded like a used candy bar wrapper in the near future. Hero today, zero tomorrow.
__
I used to be a proponent of free speech until I started reading this blog and comments like yours.
Do me and others a favor before your next comment? Watch the latest 5th estate on the trucker convoy.
Then remember the old adage.
‘It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled’ -Mark Twain
#69 Sail Away on 02.26.22 at 7:55 pm
#61 Yukon Elvis on 02.26.22 at 6:24 pm
The Kyiv [email protected]·4m⚡️
Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system providing internet access is now active in Ukraine.
———
Yep, that’s Elon to a tee. Similar to when he donated to the Flint water system repairs, and the more recent $6B to charity.
Also, I’m quite sure his satellite system includes top of the line surveillance and possibly weaponry for the US Defense Dept- probably all tracking Russia in real time.
+++++++++++++++
My opinion of him just went from impressed to very impressed. We only find out what we are made of when the shyt hits the fan.
#58 I don’t know
Its not worth my time or anybody elses for that matter to further respond to your shallow inane comments and thinking.
On occasion, I visit the local Philosopher’s Cafe.
Quite a few Russian Expats there.
Pretty smart guys, mostly into Schopenhauer, Hegel and Nietzsche.
Proud of their heritage, Mother Russia etc.
But not fond of Putin.
That’s why they left.
Always challenge me for a game of chess.
I do the smart thing and graciously decline.
#70 Proud Truck Driver on 02.26.22 at 7:55 pm
When we are going to round up all Russians in Canada? I know a lot of them live in North York and Thornhill, Ontario.
————————-
Sure,
I think first we should go after the “Proud Truck Drivers”
My guess is most of the Russians living in Canada are proud Canadians, thankful for the freedoms this great county offers.
#9 TurnerNation
Yup – been saying this all week and peeps look at me like I’m nutz
How will freezing Putin’s money affect Republican’s chances in the midterms?
Internet rumour has it that Putin is upset. Thought it would all be over by now. Instead he has a cluster….vehicles running out of fuel, no re-supply in sight. The entire world turning on him. Dead Russian soldier/mercs being delivered to the International Red Cross daily.
Remember even China failed to acknowledge his Crimea take over so they don’t seem to be fully on board.
Going to be an outbreak of suicides in Russia soon I think.
77 Doug t
At the present time, people who speak the truth, will be hated.
Freedom First
@ #70 Proud Truck Driver on 02.26.22 at 7:55 pm
When we are going to round up all Russians in Canada? I know a lot of them live in North York and Thornhill, Ontario.
–
Luckily most Canadians think losers like you should be the ones rounded up.
It’s probably above the 5% the government says it is but nowhere near 20-30%. You’re only looking at certain items like food and gas. Have you seen flight prices or the cost of TVs these days? – Ryan L
—
How many TVs precisely are you eating, driving, living in, using for heating or wearing?
The cost of you TV’s (programming excluded) expenses is probably close to 0.1 % of your total expenses averaged, maybe even less.
Inflation if measured as in 80es including all items and house prices would have been north of 15 %, more close to 18-20 % with house prices that account for over 50 % of average household expenses alone up around 25-30 %.
5 % is an insulting to any intelligence number. What exactly has increased less than 15 % in the last year?
CPI was invented by charlatans to mask the true inflation and to minimize budget related payments.
With lower inflation it ‘worked’ by slowly impoverishing the recipients of such payments, now that is fast accelerating and true inflation numbers can not be hidden any more.
The expectation for this year is for the CPI to keep accelerating and to hit 10 % (in Canada probably 7 % as we are far less honest in our numbers) with real inflation double that, so the pathetic 5 years of 3 % ‘inflation’ will be achieved in probably 8-10 months, not 5 years.
The fallback is that soon CPI + old age ‘benefits’ combined soon won’t be enough to rent a bachelor or a room with shared bathroom and the real inflation is just starting.
If somebody thinks that anything less than double digit interest rates will fix the inflation problem, he/she is delusional.
‘Potential’ rate increases to 1.5 % are a joke. Even 5-6 % is a joke. And I am sure central ‘bankers’ will find many excuses to stop and revert the increases, so far it has been only talks and no action for close to 12-15 years, why would someone think that this will change is beyond me and is the very definition of insanity.
Typo
The fallback is that soon CPI + old age ‘benefits’
should read:
The fallback is that soon CPP + old age ‘benefits’
Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal
Background
The Ukraine Humanitarian Relief Committee has been established jointly by the Ukrainian Canadian Congress and the Canada Ukraine Foundation to formalize a coordinated approach in providing humanitarian assistance quickly and efficiently to those in need in Ukraine to address any further aggression by Russia. The main efforts of cooperation are to provide humanitarian assistance/relief in the areas of Assistance to displaced persons, Medical care, Emergency Shelter and Food security.
Donations in support of humanitarian relief can be made through:
http://www.cufoundation.ca
And talking about the ZIRP scam that’s kept dishonest politicians spending on scamming the public with Green Nonsense and sustainable development thievery, , but, those same green scammers allowed into existence by sleazy politics have been bilking the brainwashed who invest in Green ETFs and ESG scams out of billions. Guys like Trudeau and Carney have some explaining to do.
https://financialpost.com/investing/green-investing-the-risk-of-a-new-misselling-scandal
Say, wasn’t some guy named Trump or something grumbling awhile back about how NATO countries weren’t pulling their own weight and contributing enough to their own defense etc??
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724
To give an idea of the general morale of the invaded forces, a friendly message from a Ukrainian soldier, speaking in Russian to be understood. (Translation contains some expletives.)
https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824
Bravado perhaps, but the whole invasion depended on swiftness and that ship has sailed.
Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter is out:
This is must-read material. The integrity and intelligence of Warren Buffett shine through.
He said he is a business-picker, not a stock picker. That observation alone is golden.
This letter is carefully crafted and edited multiple times over a period of months or at least weeks. In the end it shines like a diamond. The writing quality is suburb. The information conveyed is golden.
If that’s boot-licking, I don’t care. I recognize and appreciate quality when I see it.
Read the letter! Now!
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2021ltr.pdf
@#85 Funny Bunny
“…how NATO countries weren’t pulling their own weight and contributing enough to their own defense etc??”
+++
Yep.
The best thing that has happened to NATO rejuvenation in 75 years is…… Vladimir Putin.
His ill thought out invasion was stupidly conceived on so many different levels.
Inflation not measured properly?
Bronze Bullet at 81 contends inflation is 15% and seems to suggests that in the official numbers televisions get a big weight.
In the unlikely event he is interested in the actual weights consider the following:
From a very recent Stats Can publication “For example, 29.78% of total consumer expenditures in scope of the CPI accounted for shelter-related goods and services.”
Here is a link to information on the weights:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021011-eng.htm
#70
Isn’t Thornhill populated by Russians of Jewish descent? Lots of synagogues with Russian languages written as a second language…
There was that guy in the 1920s who wrote a book, and then rounded up the people he wrote about twenty years later. Millions murdered.
crowdedelevatorfartz “Its a shame the Ukrainians didnt have more anti tank missiles. The Russians are running out of fuel….. everywhere. Sitting ducks. Putin’s an idiot.”
He’s much more than an idiot. He’s a vile monster! If Kyiv is sacked, Zelensky (a true hero!) is murdered and the government falls, a new phase of this war will commence with the Ukrainian people then fighting back through an insurgency similar to what was seen in Iraq. Russia would then install a puppet pro-Russian government and again the Ukrainian people will fight back and protest like they did during the Orange Revolution and the 2014 Maiden Revolution. The Ukrainian people are proud, determined and strong, and will not lay down to the tyrannical Putin as he believed. This was Putin’s biggest strategic error. All the while that this is unfolding, these historic global sanctions (SWIFT, central bank, freezing assets of banks and oligarchs etc.) will drive the already weak Russian economy into the ground, driving the rubble lower, and hyperinflation potentially taking over. One way or another, this does not end well for the tyrant and warmonger Putin. I believe this will prove to be one of the biggest strategic errors in history, akin to Hitler deciding to fight on both the western and eastern flanks. Now I need to get ready for the march downtown to support my Ukrainian brothers and sisters during their time in need. – Ryan L
I believe deflation is the biggest threat. Supply chains going back to normal will push prices down to pre-covid levels and interest rates will increase the cost of burrowing which will show up in margin accounts and mortgages resulting in lower home prices. THen there is the largest demographic shift occurring as the boomers retire. They are the ones that tend not to spend money.
Todays inflation will be temporary IMO and we are facing a decade of collapsing prices.
#87 Shawn on 02.27.22 at 7:39 am
Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter is out:
This is must-read material. The integrity and intelligence of Warren Buffett shine through.
He said he is a business-picker, not a stock picker. That observation alone is golden.
This letter is carefully crafted and edited multiple times over a period of months or at least weeks. In the end it shines like a diamond. The writing quality is suburb. The information conveyed is golden.
If that’s boot-licking, I don’t care. I recognize and appreciate quality when I see it.
Read the letter! Now!
———
More like well-deserved accolades. Excellence should always be cheered and encouraged.
I eagerly await the letter’s arrival in the mail and enjoy reading it carefully while making notes, then rereading a few more times as thoughts occur.
I’ve seen quite a few comments regarding folks driving high end vehicles patronizing food banks. The perception is said folks are gaming the system, they can afford to purchase food & are literally taking food from the mouths of those in lower economic circumstances. That may well be the case, but I offer an alternate theory. Said folks in the high end cars don’t actually own those cars, or their clothing, or the place they live etc. They are carrying so much debt that all their income goes to service the carrying charges & using the food banks is how they are staying afloat, because otherwise they’d not have enough to service the debt they owe. They might ‘look’ rich, but they are anything but. Should interest rates rise, expect to see more of them at the food banks – minus the fancy cars, as they’ll be repossessed for non-payment.
#91 Ryan Lewenza
All the while that this is unfolding, these historic global sanctions (SWIFT, central bank, freezing assets of banks and oligarchs etc.) will drive the already weak Russian economy into the ground, driving the rubble lower…
——————————————————————————————————–
The rubble will definitely be driven lower and lower into the ground.
So will their currency – the Ruble.
Yah…I know….low hanging fruit.
#72
No worries
I come here for the expert advice like yours when someone who donated to a cause when it first started with good intentions is labelled a terrorist and is cancelled as was my point.
Ryan,
Napoleon said it best “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
This is the end of Putin and this blunder will go down in the history books.
Hi #66 TurnerNation,
Thought you and some others might be interested in this.
(The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author)
Why does this influential, unelected globalist entity really exist?
Much more light must be shed on the World Economic Forum’s agenda and its string-pullers
https://www.rt.com/news/550523-wef-davos-agenda-covid-schwab/
#60 ‘Pension’ – don’t know the rules as OMERS isn’t my workplace pension, but as per Google OMERS pension recipients received a 2.74% COLA increase to their pension for 2022. Given that CPP/OAS recipients received a 2.7% increase for 2022 based on CPI looks like OMERS uses much the same formula as the Government of Canada when it comes to COLA increases.
RE:#28 Ryan Lewenza on 02.26.22 at 1:50 pm
THE DANDADA “ The FEDS won’t raise rates until maybe Q4 at earliest.”
What is that based on? The Feds have clearly indicated rates are going up imminently and inflation is above 7%. – Ryan L
=======================================
It’s based on the fact that most people have lost faith in central banks.
ie: Charlie Brown no longer trusts anything Lucy says.
My 21yr+ OMERS pension is possibly being terminated along with my job this spring. Imo, a couple of years ago I started to believe if their will be sustainable monies in that fund when i can early retire in 6 years – let alone 10,15 etc… So i’ll take what i can get now (40%), before i get nothing.
BTW – How is everyone’s spiritual wealth doing? Its the most important and only ‘currency’ that gets you to the next level. Especially in days we live in right now.
God Bless!
It is relatively affordable to look rich, but expensive to be.
#91 Ryan Lewenza on 02.27.22 at 9:43 am
He’s much more than an idiot. He’s a vile monster! If Kyiv is sacked, Zelensky (a true hero!) is murdered and the government falls, a new phase of this war will commence with the Ukrainian people then fighting back through an insurgency similar to what was seen in Iraq. Russia would then install a puppet pro-Russian government and again the Ukrainian people will fight back and protest like they did during the Orange Revolution and the 2014 Maiden Revolution. The Ukrainian people are proud, determined and strong, and will not lay down to the tyrannical Putin as he believed. This was Putin’s biggest strategic error. All the while that this is unfolding, these historic global sanctions (SWIFT, central bank, freezing assets of banks and oligarchs etc.) will drive the already weak Russian economy into the ground, driving the rubble lower, and hyperinflation potentially taking over. One way or another, this does not end well for the tyrant and warmonger Putin. I believe this will prove to be one of the biggest strategic errors in history, akin to Hitler deciding to fight on both the western and eastern flanks. Now I need to get ready for the march downtown to support my Ukrainian brothers and sisters during their time in need. – Ryan L
============================================
This is where Ms. BB and I were this afternoon, Ryan. Wenceslas Square, Prague. Incredible site. This country is no stranger to Russian tyrants imposing their rule.
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/obrazem-obrazem-plnym-vaclavakem-znelo-slava-ukrajine-190842
This was last week here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60543994
They were throwing eggs at the bank branch. The branch has since shut down and the employees already rehired by competing banks as the unemployment rate here is so low.
Absolutely bizarre stories coming out of Ukraine. Civilians coming across Russian troops in tanks out of gas, lost, with only paper maps. (Ukrainians have been removing road signs a la Britain in WWII.) VERY young captured soldiers put on the phone with their mothers in Russia who ask them why they’re in Ukraine and they answer “I don’t know, I don’t understand” over and over. Love this guy with his cigarette removing a land mine:
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497953787079712774?s=20&t=X4zoc3DR_EPsA_DZGP9_CQ
Weirdest invasion ever.
But a humiliated Putin is perhaps the most dangerous version of all…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-puts-russia-nuclear-deterrence-forces-on-high-alert-ukraine
re: With the invasion of Ukraine the prospect of a 50 bp increase is now completely off the table for this meeting. Fed Fund futures are now pricing in six rate hikes by the end of the year but if this conflict continues then we could see the Fed pare this back.
why would the conflict have the Fed pare back increases?
inflation is inflation no matter where it comes from
94 Linda
“That may well be the case, but I offer an alternate theory.”
————————-
Actually Linda, I think your “alternate” is indeed what was always implied.
directional movements
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3-a4qWCtIg
#70 Proud Truck Driver on 02.26.22 at 7:55 pm
Can we leave the Russian PEOPLE out of this? Both the Russian and Ukrainian communities of Québec have been banding together to denounce this Kremlin-led assault. And if you haven’t noticed, many citizens in Russia have been risking their lives to protest in the streets. That’s an incredible risk to take under an authoritarian regime and as a result many have been jailed.
And to be honest, lots of the video footage at early stage of this invasion is very telling. The Russian soldiers don’t look particularly enthused about being there. They obviously had zero choice in the matter.
I think most of us (myself included) take the freedoms we have for granted because we’ve never known the absolute horrors of living under a true fascist regime. And I pray that we never will.
#60 Pension dissension on 02.26.22 at 6:19 pm
Anyone here receiving an OMERS pension?
How much extra are you getting due to inflation?
Is it capped?
________
OMERS is still under pressure recovering from the incompetent Conservative Party meddling by Mike Harris, which stopped contributions in the ‘good times’ of the 1990s, leaving it unprepared for the recessions that lay ahead.
As a result, a potentially significant change will happen in ten months, putting indexing in doubt for all inflation affected earnings after 2022, so the plan won’t be as vulnerable to such changes. (If it had just been left alone by Mike Harris, it would have built its own B&D buffer.)
https://www.omers.com/sites/OMERSFuture/sri.html
Another reminder of how utterly incompetent Conservatives in Canada have been when it comes to financial planning.
We need leaders to be practical, not political.
Kenney, Ford, Poilievre etc…. are all political hacks and financial numbskulls.
Thank dog for Paul Martin and his kind.
It’s a sad truth of Canadian economic history. For 50 years, Conservative have proven to be the most dangerous risks to our economy.
Pension envy is misguided and petty, financially illiterate jealousy at best. Most government workers contribute a huge chunk of cash to these plans, and contract negotiations routinely lower wages in exchange for keeping pensions more stable. Few in the private sector would make that sort of bargain, they just want all the money now. Good public sector pensions provide a bulwark against this natural, emotional type of money management. It’s like having your own investment advisor, like Garth’s firm, already in place, for most government workers.
Correction…in that last post…meant to say 80% petroleum trade between Russia and Europe. 38% consumer goods.
#73 Yukon Elvis on 02.26.22 at 8:28 pm
#69 Sail Away on 02.26.22 at 7:55 pm
#61 Yukon Elvis on 02.26.22 at 6:24 pm
You poor sots tripping over yourselves to SEC.
At least one of you claims to like logical discussion which, I presume, would mean facts. So, care to tell us what the facts are here? i.e. who, exactly, is accessing the internet right now in Ukraine via Starlink? If not now, when will it happen? AFAIK the answers are nobody and not for months.
Here’s a fact — Elon and his brother are the subject of a new insider trading investigation by the SEC. You know, for fraud. That kind of thing might ding TSLA’s stock price.
Another generally accepted principle (among non-sociopaths) is that it is distasteful or even outright abhorrent for a hundred billionaire (or for anyone really) to use an ongoing, illegal and lethal armed conflict as a PR opportunity.
1. CBs do NOT want to increase the rates, outstanding debt is just too much.
2. inflation is what CBs want, it dilutes the outstanding debt. it is the best way getting out the mess CBs created themselves.
3. so they will increase rates one or two times, then find other excuses to stop(they will call it pause)
4. housing bubble will not be punctured by the rate increases, it will be something else. nobody knows when and by what. it will not be pretty for sure.
5. You have no idea how monetary policy works. – Garth