What does the Russian aggression mean for you, me and your money?
First, keep your cool. Things always suck when they’re unfolding. We went through this two years ago. Covid came out of nowhere. Stocks crashed 35% in a couple of weeks. A bear market. The global economy essentially shut down. If the lights were going to go out on life as we know it, that was the time.
But you remember what happened. We survived and actually thrived. The experience of the last two years is consistent with my own. My personal holy-shit moment came in 1987, sitting in my newspaper business editor’s office and wondering how to explain a one-day 22.6% collapse in the Dow. I lacked context then. I did my job badly, adding to a sense of panic that subsequent days showed to be unwarranted. And in every ‘disaster’ since – from Y2K to Nine Eleven, the credit crisis and a pandemic – the pattern’s been the same, I’ve learned. Fear. Overreaction. Losses. Recovery. Gains. And here we go again.
But rest assured, there will be some consequences.
For example, stock declines, economic sanctions, a 30% drop in the Russian market, surging oil, a flight from equities to fixed income, falling bond yields and spiking volatility will probably save your mortgage. For a while. The odds of a whopping Fed bank rate increase (half a point) in a couple of weeks, followed by a slew of hikes later in 2022 is kaput. At least for today.
This puts the Bank of Canada in a vice. The first of five rate jumps this year was scheduled to take place next Wednesday. But Vlad got in the way. Look at the Government of Canada five-year bond yield – it plopped by almost 5% when the first shots were fired.
This is a tough call for the CB. Oil at a hundred bucks is wildly inflationary and comes at a time when a wage-spiral spiral is just taking off. But raising rates to cool things down when the Ruskies are threatening Europe and bond yields are falling amid a flight to safety takes guts. Will Tiff be stiff and get ‘er done next week? Or fold like a cheap suit? Stay tuned. (But I still wouldn’t borrow variable).
Okay, stock markets shed points as Putin pounced. But most of the investor blood was in Moscow, not flowing in the gutters of Wall and Bay Streets. Should we worry about this, or is it another blemish on a stock chart that marches higher each decade?
I asked my suspender-snapping, bow-tied, omniscient, chart-smitten portfolio manager buddy (Ryan) to share some of our thoughts with you:
When these unsettling world events occur it’s easy for the emotions to take over, which can lead to poor investment decisions. So let’s step back and review some key economic stats with respect to Russia and how these historical military events have impacted the equity markets.
First, Russia is not a major world economic power. Its economy ranks 11th and represents just 1.3% of the global economy. The US forms 16% of the global economy and Canada, despite having one fourth the population of Russia, is the 9th largest economy – 2% of world GDP.
Given these stats I don’t see this conflict, and the ensuing sanctions on the Russian economy derailing this economic recovery. Yes, this will likely weigh on overall growth but this conflict should not engender a major downturn. Frankly, the bigger economic issue with this conflict is with oil, especially if prices hit US$125/barrel level.
Second, while these military conflicts and major geopolitical events can lead to sell-offs in the equity markets, they tend to be fleeting. Below is a table of key historical military conflicts and the impacts they had on the equity markets.
The average price decline from these events is 13% – coincidently where we stand today from the January peak. The average recovery time from these crises is three months, with the S&P 500 up 27% (on average) one year after these events.
Impact of Military Conflicts on the S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg, Mackenzie Investments
Finally, we (Garth, Doug, Sinan, myself) have been through many of these geopolitical flare-ups and market disruptions. They have shaped us and made us battle-hardened. This is not our first rodeo! Through these experiences I have learned two indelible market lessons. First, they always recover. And second, it’s critical to keep emotions in check, block out the noise, what you see on the TV and stick to the long-term plan. If you do this, you’ll make it through this terrible event currently gripping the world. Meanwhile our thoughts and prayers go out to the Ukrainian people in their time of need.
<<< >>>
The truckers came. They camped. They honked. They partied. They scared the cops. The feds brought down the big hammer. The siege ended in a flurry of batons, police horses and tow trucks. Bank accounts of those funding the occupation were frozen for less than a week, then thawed. Emergency powers ended, and Tamara stayed in jail. Freedom Convoy 2022 was officially kaput.
But wait. The anti-government, anti-vax Peterbilt warriors then opened a new front, claiming the financial freeze was so chilling that Canadians in the last few days initiated a giant run on the banks – since a rogue government in Ottawa was clearly willing to commit wide scale thievery upon its own people. It you didn’t vote for Justin, in other words, you might be retiring on Whiskas.
For the record, seems 281 bank accounts containing just under $8 million associated with key funders of the protest were rendered inactive for about five days. It’s useful to remember 99% of Canadians have at least one bank account – of which there are almost 100 million.
But this piffle didn’t stop more sewage being pumped from the putrid well of disinformation.
“Based upon reliable sources, Trudeau has been forced to abandon his Emergency Act as a staggering amount of money has fled Canadian banks,” wrote pseudo-economist (and convicted felon) Martin Armstrong yesterday.
Canadians have moved accounts to the United States by the tens of thousands following Trudeau’s freezing bank accounts without a court order which has even included credit cards. Canadians began withdrawing all of their money from their bank accounts with most turning to cash, others to gold, and some to BitCoin. The demand for US dollars more than tripled in the past week.
The sheer amount of money withdrawals from Canadian banks was massive. There appears to have been a 500% increase just in the previous 24 hours. Trudeau has driven a stake through the heart of the Canadian economy and that means that international capital will be skeptical about trusting Canada as long a Trudeau is in power.
Well, it’s a fabrication. He made it up. So did the posters on this pathetic blog who came here to lie about a bank run and deliberately throw the financial system under the bus so they could pee on the prime minister.
Meanwhile the Canadian Bankers Association reports no run (of course). Anyone showing up at their bank wanting five grand in cash last week was treated as always – denied, since such a request must be made in advance. The frozen accounts (flagged by the RCMP) were largely back to normal yesterday.
“While most customer accounts have been unfrozen, it is important to remember that some accounts may be frozen for a variety of other reasons, including to comply with court orders or proceedings related to illegal activities or other unrelated legal matters,” said the CBA.
Let’s remember the folks claiming our banks are teetering are the same ones who told you Bill Gates spiked the Pfizer brew with microchips and young athletes globally are falling over dead with hearts poisoned by the Covid vaccine.
It was hard to imagine we could sink lower than deliberately-unmasked people shutting down a shopping centre or openly humiliating health care workers. But not any more.
About the picture: At just 16 weeks of age, Vimy was chosen for police work by the OPP. Two years later he joined the Canadian Forces as a military police dog, stationed in Halifax. His training was completed in 2009 and he spent the next 12 years tracking criminals, locating evidence, finding missing persons and detecting narcotics. After a distinguished career serving his nation, Vimy recently retired. Thank you for your service.
184 comments ↓
So the BOC does have an excuse not to raise rates…..inflation to the MOON
BoC has many levers…why not QE to keep things moving forward and increase rates to cool inflation
Why are preferred shares tanking on the war news?
How is a decline of less than 1% today ‘tanking’? Read the post. It’s about bond yields. -= Garth
Now we see the next step of WW3. It was kicked off globally that cold winter week, March 2020 — if you were paying attention.
When every system designed to protect us was turned against us. Under the guise of the Anti-human “Rules”. (Being scrapped everywhere on cue.)
But, still (we pay high taxes for all the stuff we get);
https://twitter.com/2drinks2go/status/1496848598658600960
“Neighbors surgery postponed this week for the 3rd time in 20 months. Citing no icu beds available. 60,000 full time residents. 1 patient testing positive between 2 hospitals. #muskoka #huntsville ”
—
>>>
Repost – From May 2020: almost two years ago and since, what has changed?:
****
#1 TurnerNation on 05.29.20 at 1:30 pm
Potential economic outcome for Kanada.
As mentioned we are in WW3 – a 24/7 war propaganda campaign convinced us we all are walking bio-weapons…Wartime rules in effect: all events, culture, travel was cancelled; curfews, rations with war-time govt spending levels were unleashed. Military sent to care homes in ON, QC – getting us accustomed to this are they?
Wars are fought over land. Big box stores have enough land, they can endure the economic weapon known as “Distancing”.
Small business has not this land. I spoke with an owner they cannot open one half of their store with its own revenue stream due to ‘distancing’. Kneecapped at 50% revenue, this is the UN-enforced poverty, to turn 1st world countries into 2nd.
****
Putin just wants his peacekeeping forces to settle in for the long haul and have the Ukraine back in the fold…
Wonder how Estonia and other countries feel right now… tick, tick, tick,…
#1 Dave
Exactly, perfect cover for no rate hikes….wonder when they are coming down? If they go up, right after NOV 2022 midterms.
Also oil will likely stay up here a while and before mid terms will lower to see if Joe can rescue the sinking ship.
A perfect time to load the oil LONGS.
Anyone notice Biden and club didn’t do a thing directly to Putin or any restrictions on the sale of Russian Oil?
The club knows they need Russian oil and Vlad knows it too, hence why we are here today…Watch the players and what they don’t say vs what they think you want to hear.
What are the odds of a BoC .25 interest rate bump in March??
Putin just wants his peacekeeping forces to settle in for the long haul and have the Ukraine back in the fold…
If you do not say/write the Ontario or the Saskatchewan why would you say/write the Ukraine?
Now I do go to the bar but I live in BC, not the BC.
They came. They camped. They claxoned.
…and ya, they partied (for awhile).
———————
You tipped the market off with your fancy, smancy table.
S&P 500 +1.39%
Feb 24, 3:50:47 PM UTC-5
Even the Dow up.
It’s useful to remember 99% of Canadians have at least one bank account – of which there are almost 100 million.-GT
I guess I’m a 1%’er
Tweet of the day to me:
https://twitter.com/driusan/status/1496862481876193284
Putin said that Ukrainians are actually Russians. He has that backwards. The Kievan Rus, descendants of Vikings, were the cultural progenitors of Ukraine, and from them sprang Russia.
Doesn’t mean anything when the bullets start flying, but the Ukrainians were there first.
Thanks for the rational comments.
Anonymity ruined the internet. Allows people to lie without consequence.
As I type behind an alias…..
How will he pay the mercenaries ? through SWIFT
According to these links: “Wagner Group is far from being the sole Russian private military company. Anna Maria Dyner lists several other Russian private military companies that have operated abroad, such as the E.N.O.T. Corporation in Syria and the Feraks group in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Sri Lanka, as well as the Antiterror-Orel Group and many others.
https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state
https://pism.pl/publications/The_Role_of_Private_Military_Contractors_in_Russian_Foreign_Policy
I worry less about financial upheaval and COVID, than I do about the stupidity and paranoia of a minority of the population who take the rubbish on social media as gospel. Oh yes, some forms of religion can be scary too. Those preachers on Parliament Hill and the other ones supporting the anti-vaxers don’t look like the meek types who are supposed to inherit the earth.
Can politicians please stop saying they stand with the Ukraine
Again, the west in the face of expansionist aggression from Putin roll out a response that will do not to stop the invasion. And western politicians pay lip service by saying ‘we stand with the Ukraine”. I can only imagine how insulting this sounds to Ukrainians being invaded by Russia.
What is missing from the commentary is that this is war – 10s of thousands of Ukrainians will die over the coming years because of this invasion. Hundred, maybe thousands, of individuals that may present a political threat to Putin will be disappeared/executed.
Yes it is complicated, with Europe letting itself become so energy dependant on a despotic dictator. But at some point a line in the sand needs to be drawn or Putin will understand he is free to run rampant into former USSR counties with impunity.
One can only hope the difficulty of managing the occupation of the Ukraine, will deplete Russian finances and make further invasions more difficult. With the wests acquiescence to Putin, it will really be up the the people of the Ukraine over the next few years to “defeat” Putin’s occupation/take over, but it will come at a massive cost in Ukrainian lives.
Macklem will fold like a cheap suit and use the invasion as an excuse to keep rates low.
Hi Doug,
Could you add the impact of WWI and WW2 declarations to your market stats/table please? For WW2, one could look at two dates, I suppose— Hitler’s blitzkrieg through Poland (September 1, 1939) and/or Japan’s sneak attack on Pearl Harbour.
Much appreciated,
BC Doc
There’s one thing I’m certain of and it’s that the oligopoly known as the Cdn banks are the envy of the world and if they were in serious trouble, we’d either be:
A) overrun by zombies (staring at ur social media?)
B) bowing to alien overlords…
Too much Marvel Universe for this guy!
Some predictions for the year:
US and friends have chosen Taiwan over Ukraine. China will not invade Taiwan.
Gas prices will fuel inflation (Obvious).
Earnings will soar in third quarter.
2022 will end with good positive returns in US and much better in Canada.
If you see this flights map around Ukraine, that was me 11 hr ago:
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1496785058484654083
Made the rounds, clipped by others but I know it’s mine. I think NBC or somebody like that used it. And a few others. Unoriginal prats.
A lot of copy cats after that with lame Flightradar24.
Concerning financial Ryan is correct all the way.
As for Trudeau’s reaction of course no runs on banks.
This was just informative as a sample of how socialist welfare state establishments can and will react when face with true opposition.
The great French economist (yeah I know…) Frederic Basiat predicted way back in 1848 (before it even existed) the rise and fall of the utopian nanny state.
“(The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else.)”
All threatened regimes get nasty, this one will be no exception.
Hello Comrade Turner,
I follow your advice and maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio of 3 stocks on the Russian stock exchange.
Unfortunately the index plunged 45% today, and then closed down 33%.
Can you help me recover?
I’ll need to recoup my losses by Monday, or I’ll have to invade Lunenburg to get the money from you personally.
Markets are saying that Ukraine is holding up very well. Not surprising given that Ukrainians are almost as gun crazy as the US. Now it depends if the Russians want to go all in. Probably rate hikes are kaput for now. Need consumers to keep spending !
Wow, V looks all business!
What’s happening with all those trucker millions?
Specifically those that were released from GFM/GSG?
Thank you for once again being the voice of reason at a time of crises, fear, and confusion.
Canada is and will be largely unaffected by the Ukraine mess, but it’s interesting to watch live history on TV.
This is Germany’s mess, they decided to make themselves Putin’s bitch and completely reliant on an energy tap that he controls.
It does send a warning to the liberal virtue signalers in this country that there are consequences for the rabble when you shut down the production side of the energy business but not the consumption side, and the EU has done this worse than anyone.
It won’t affect you decision to fill up your jet to fly to the Caribbean for the weekend, but it will hurt the many that have to drive to get to work and the cost of everything in the grocery store.
If the ruling class wanted to, Canada could be running a huge surplus with much lower taxes. Instead we get gender pronouns and debt.
I was about to ask. I assume this puts the kibosh on rate hikes March 2, and probably the next few months?
Awful hard to transition an economy to a war footing when rates are going up.
Turns out all the folks in steerage who said rates wouldn’t go up were right. Maybe for the wrong reasons, but they did say there was no way rates could rise. This seems to add support to that.
To quote Jeff Goldblum in ‘Jurrasic Park’….
“I’m fairly alarmed here”
Russia may no be a world economic power but they have Nukes. And in a TV address this morning, Putin pretty much implied their use was on the table if the West interfered.
This could get very ugly.
I didn’t sleep very well last night. I’m getting pretty tired of living thru historical times.
Only time I panicked was 10 h ago when I saw this:
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1496810485349556225
Thoughts of Slim Pickens from Dr. Strangelove came to mind. One B52 held and circled over Poland the over Sweden for awhile.
While I watched a ton more NATO MIL aircraft became airborne. And what you see is what they let you see.
There were at least 3 fuel tankers in the air around Poland, Hungary etc. doing there usual loop but with no aircraft shown around them. So, you know…
At that moment is when I thought of Slim Pickens.
Some of this post hits on the things that baffle me the most about our current times. There is a small, but not insignificant, segment of the population that so willing latches on to lies and conspiracy theories. As a matter of fact the bigger more outrageous the lie is the more quickly and tightly these people grasp it. Obviously the ease of spreading disinformation plays some role but when you talk to these folks it’s like cultists or religious fanatics. It’s beyond my ability to comprehend.
The Dogs Of War
Pink Floyd
Dogs of war and men of hate
With no cause, we don’t discriminate
Discovery is to be disowned
Our currency is flesh and bone
Hell opened up and put on sale
Gather ’round and haggle
For hard cash, we will lie and deceive
Even our masters don’t know the web we weave
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
Invisible transfers, long distance calls,
Hollow laughter in marble halls
Steps have been taken, a silent uproar
Has unleashed the dogs of war
You can’t stop what has begun
Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion
We all have a dark side, to say the least
And dealing in death is the nature of the beast
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
The dogs of war don’t negotiate
The dogs of war won’t capitulate,
They will take and you will give,
And you must die so that they may live
You can knock at any door,
But wherever you go, you know they’ve been there before
Well winners can lose and things can get strained
But whatever you change, you know the dogs remain.
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
Just a quick message to Dennis and Colleen of yesterday’s photo.
Next time you cut off a doberman’s ear tips in a photo, you are banned from sharing photos – lifetime.
I don’t make the rules. Doberman Admirer Society of Canada does.
You’ve been warned.
#11 Joe Schmoe
As I type behind an alias…..
———
THAT was good.
Self-awareness the road to recovery.
Love you Garth but if Martin is irrelevant why do you quote him?
But nice to have a different point of view that might be true. Remember everything is not just Black and white but rather in colour.
Armstrong is relevant as another example of the ethical swamp and destructive engine that social media has become. – Garth
First, Russia is not a major world economic power. Its economy ranks 11th and represents just 1.3% of the global economy. The US forms 16% of the global economy and Canada, despite having one fourth the population of Russia, is the 9th largest economy – 2% of world GDP.
—————__
Oh, Canada!
If you multiply 2% by 10, we’d be at the top of the world.
The little engine that could.
Just like there will be no military intervention when China takes Taiwan, there will be no big military intervention by NATO in the Ukraine except maybe the Ivan Franco/Lviv area that Russia does not really care about so they can save face about the impending defeat. Putin’s disarmament demands will be met as the Kiev regime collapses.
It is curious how if you overlay all the Russian target strikes over the map of the US bioweapon laboratories it is a really tight fit just like OJ’s glove.
#28 Elon Fanboy on 02.24.22 at 4:37 pm
To quote Jeff Goldblum in ‘Jurrasic Park’….
“I’m fairly alarmed here”
Russia may no be a world economic power but they have Nukes. And in a TV address this morning, Putin pretty much implied their use was on the table if the West interfered.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Putin also knows that he would get nuked in return if he tried that. It would be the end of Russia. Nato / USA have prepositioned nuclear weapons at six Nato bases in Europe which could be delivered by the stealthy F35 without any warning or radar signature to track. Not to mention the rest of Nato’s nuclear arsenal.
#19 Crystal ball futurist on 02.24.22 at 4:20 pm
Some predictions for the year:
US and friends have chosen Taiwan over Ukraine. China will not invade Taiwan.
Gas prices will fuel inflation (Obvious).
Earnings will soar in third quarter.
2022 will end with good positive returns in US and much better in Canada.
——————–
Meh, I don’t think so. How about this prediction;
US loses both Ukraine and Taiwan since both Russia and China taste the weak knee west resolve ( or lack of it )
Woke western governments realize woke gets you broke and decide that investing in energy still matters.
Gas – I’ll agree with that one but that’s also because EV will only grow.
Vimy may have recently been retired, but his eyes say he is ready for his next assignment. He embodies the hard work, steadfast, loyalty ethic. Could teach a few things to some of the dogs on this blog, but many are untrainable. The 10% a popular author has talked about. Good boy, Vimy.
If you check your investments once a year, the likelihood of it being red will be much smaller than if you check it every day.
Noise misleads. Ignore
#4 PutinPal on 02.24.22 at 3:37 pm
Putin just wants his peacekeeping forces to settle in for the long haul and have Ukraine back in the fold…
Wonder how Estonia and other countries feel right now… tick, tick, tick,…
———————————————————–
Estonia is NATO; Poland, Czech and Slovakia republics, Lithuania and Romania are also Ex-Warsaw pact members that are part of NATO.
If Putin directly attacks any NATO member, then we will be in WWIII.
Belarus may be absorbed into Russia.
Moldova, however, is not part of NATO and it borders Ukraine. It could be next on Putin’s invasion plan.
I made a run on my bank… withdrew THOUSANDS in USD!
but, it’s for my family vacation next week – SO EXCITED to get back on a plane and sit on a beach.
I propose if we must go to war, the first to go should be:
#1- Politicians and their sons and daughters.
#2- All mainstream media personalities and their families.
#3- All corporate leaders who sell weapons.
#4- Every armchair general who thinks war is just and noble.
….And in every ‘disaster’ since – from Y2K to Nine Eleven, the credit crisis and a pandemic – the pattern’s been the same, I’ve learned. Fear. Overreaction. Losses. Recovery. Gains.
I agree with your statement Garth. As an investor of any financial asset (stocks, fixed income, or Real Estate), you should have a plan and execute this based on your risk tolerance. As a RE_Investor, my main goal was and is Positive Cash Flow, so Rental RE met this goal plan for the last 32 years in Toronto. Of course now, I don’t have any leverage at all, but that was all due to careful planning, saving, and investing the +ve cash flow properly. Now I’m branching out to Mississauga and also looking at other areas. It’s amazing the power of +ve cash flow!
Good Luck everyone. I’m sure anyone reading this blog isn’t sitting on their hands and missing any market gains, right?! Oh wait, I do read the whinny comments every now and then, so I guess there is the random fool out there!
Have to say ‘Vimy’ looks pretty darn frisky for a 14 year old canine! May his retirement be full of pets & lazy days in the sun:)
I believe Tiff won’t pull the trigger – the current war/invasion mess will provide ‘reasonable doubt’ for doing so. However, said mess will likely add to inflationary pressures, at least in the short term. So sad to see folks having to flee yet another conflict:(
@#4 Putins pal
“Putin just wants his peacekeeping forces to settle in for the long haul and have the Ukraine back in the fold…”
+++
And there in lies the problem.
It’s one thing to invade and conquer in a Blitz lasting a few weeks or months.
And make no mistake.
Russia is the invader.
Hated by the current majority population of Ukraine for the destruction and the deaths.
Now?
Try and hold on to it.
Tens of dead soldiers/occupiers per week?
Hundreds of dead per week?
The longer it drags on and the cost escalates….the more unpopular Putin will become in his own country.
The US learned the hard way in Iraq and Afghanistan…
At least in a democracy the leader can be booted out.
Putin isnt going to retire.
He’ll be replaced in a coup and imprisoned for life or shot.
An incredibly insightful and useful post. Especially to those that get emotional and hyperbolic with everything related to markets and finance.
To those individuals:
-Higher inflation = hyper inflation.
-Rising interest rates = crushing rates hikes
And so on.
Will they listen? Probably not. Grantham’s new “prediction” gets all the clicks. YouTube videos, Facebook, and Reddit replace finance textbooks. Fear sells.
Of course markets will recover and be higher in the future. Is it a good time to buy? Any time you have the cash is a good time. The sooner the better. Thinking you are smarter than the market, while holding a huge pile of quickly depreciating cash and waiting for a 50% drop? A recipe for disaster.
This is true for equity markets and real estate.
Times like this are really where the boys are separated from the men in the financial world.
IDK
This is for you Observer!
About that video on the MSM showing Russian Airstrike in Ukraine. Turns out it’s a video of Israeli airstrike on the Gaza Strip in 2021.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-969210303435?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=APFactCheck
The last day has witnessed 3 sets of airstrikes:
1. Israeli strikes against the Syrian military
2. Saudi strikes against Yemeni civilians
3. Russian strikes against Ukrainian military installations
Nobody’s talking about 1 or 2, because they’re business as usual for imperialism
Ponzies Perjorative Pot Putdown
“Oh, Canada!
If you multiply 2% by 10, we’d be at the top of the world.
The little engine that could.”
++++
And Austria is where on the global rankings Mr Pot calling Kettle black?
#1 in pickled Rutabaga sales three decades in a row?
My my my
Seems protesters in Russia aren’t too pleased with Czar Putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-cracks-down-home-front-its-troops-invade-ukraine-2022-02-24/
Well, its good to see some of them aren’t accepting Putins version of events.
Your table didn’t include how long it took market to recover from the 1979 Iran revolution.
I think this would be instructive since that revolution had two things in common with the Ukraine invasion. It took place during a period of high inflation and it greatly impacted energy markets. I will try to track this data down myself but so far have not been able to.
Keep up the great work Garth and Ryan.
Does anybody have any information on how the Russian
soldiers are treating the Ukraine people?
Good points today Garth.
I still don’t think anybody knows what is going on in Ukraine. There are posts circulating showing Russian aircraft flying in formation that were taken at air shows and an explosion that occurred in China. Pure fabrication. Something is happening, that’s for sure, but it’ll take some days to find out what it is/was.
Tamara should be released on bond. “Mischief” isn’t punishable by death and I don’t think she’s dangerous at this point, if she ever was. The truckers aren’t coming back.
It’ll take a year before we know whether Trudeau or the truckers won. The mandates will come off either way. I suppose it will be the next election that shines light on that.
But for sure life will go on.
We live in interesting times indeed. More information is available at the touch of a button to more people than could have been conceived a generation ago, but you can’t trust any of it. I guess honesty has never been a hallmark of human nature and false reporting probably predates the printing press, so it is best to be skeptical in all things. And stick with strategies that have stood the test of time.
#30 Freeeee-DUMB on 02.24.22 at 4:49 pm
Some of this post hits on the things that baffle me the most about our current times. There is a small, but not insignificant, segment of the population that so willing latches on to lies and conspiracy theories. As a matter of fact the bigger more outrageous the lie is the more quickly and tightly these people grasp it. Obviously the ease of spreading disinformation plays some role but when you talk to these folks it’s like cultists or religious fanatics. It’s beyond my ability to comprehend.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Chris L. This is you.
I certainly hope they start to raise in March. What will the Feds do if we hit an unexpected recession with the lowest rates in recorded time?
#15 Reality Check on 02.24.22 at 4:10 pm
Exactly, how can they say they stand with Ukraine when they haven’t done anything to protect or defend them. Actually, some CBs are going to profit from this mess.
The real onslaught has begun. Mainstream media and all the other fake media’s 24/7 fear porn extravaganza. Putin BAD, N.A.T.O. GOOD. All slanted to what their teleprompter tells them to say, according to Mockingbird Media Inc.
“If the people knew what we have done, they’d be hanging us from lamposts”…. George H.W. Bush
#37 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.22 at 5:07 pm
#28 Elon Fanboy on 02.24.22 at 4:37 pm
To quote Jeff Goldblum in ‘Jurrasic Park’….
“I’m fairly alarmed here”
Russia may no be a world economic power but they have Nukes. And in a TV address this morning, Putin pretty much implied their use was on the table if the West interfered.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Putin also knows that he would get nuked in return if he tried that. It would be the end of Russia. Nato / USA have prepositioned nuclear weapons at six Nato bases in Europe which could be delivered by the stealthy F35 without any warning or radar signature to track. Not to mention the rest of Nato’s nuclear arsenal.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Maybe Putin is willing to risk going down in a blaze of glory as a second best outcome.
Bloomberg’s Transcript: Vladimir Putin’s Televised Address on Ukraine
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-on-ukraine-1.1728035
#37 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.22 at 5:07 pm
#28 Elon Fanboy on 02.24.22 at 4:37 pm
To quote Jeff Goldblum in ‘Jurrasic Park’….
“I’m fairly alarmed here”
Russia may no be a world economic power but they have Nukes. And in a TV address this morning, Putin pretty much implied their use was on the table if the West interfered.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Putin also knows that he would get nuked in return if he tried that. It would be the end of Russia. Nato / USA have prepositioned nuclear weapons at six Nato bases in Europe which could be delivered by the stealthy F35 without any warning or radar signature to track. Not to mention the rest of Nato’s nuclear arsenal.
—————————————-
Nuclear bombs and suicide bombers have a lot in common.
DELETED
#54 Nonplused on 02.24.22 at 6:11 pm
I still don’t think anybody knows what is going on in Ukraine. There are posts circulating showing Russian aircraft flying in formation that were taken at air shows and an explosion that occurred in China. Pure fabrication. Something is happening, that’s for sure, but it’ll take some days to find out what it is/was.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Are you living on a different planet?
Recent events showing what an incredible lack of historical perspective the “Freedom Convoy” folks had. And to think they actually thought they didn’t have any freedom. Look at what’s happening in Ukraine or in Russia with the protestors. See what lack of freedom actually looks like.
Ok I could not find Data as good as Ryans for after the Iran revolution but I did find a table of stock market returns.
For 1979 the S&P rose an impressive 12.3% and for 1980 it rose 25.8. That is very good but they did follow 2 years of bad returns. 1978 stocks only rose 1.1% and in 1977 they went down 11%.
So the data was not as instructive as I had hoped for.
However the Arab Oil Embargo 1973-1974 did have a big impact. In 1973 the market declined by 17% and in 1974 if fell by a whooping 30%. However it recovered again in the 1975 – 1976 period. Plus 31% and plus 19% respectively.
Source: https://www.forecast-chart.com/historical-sp-500.html
The Contract Factory’: Inside Danske Bank Estonia’s Money Laundering Machine
banksters
https://www.occrp.org/en/azerbaijanilaundromat/the-contract-factory-inside-danske-bank-estonias-money-laundering-machine
one of Europe’s largest ever money laundering scandals.
by Holger Roonemaa, Oliver Kund, Martin Laine
23 February 2022
Also published by our partners Eesti Ekspress (Estonia, in Estonian) and Berlingske (Denmark, in Danish).
https://www.occrp.org/en/azerbaijanilaundromat/the-contract-factory-inside-danske-bank-estonias-money-laundering-machine
The Pegasus Project
A World of Surveillance
A consortium of journalists gained access to a leak of more than 50,000 phone numbers entered into a system used for targeting by Pegasus, a sophisticated spyware product made by the Israeli company NSO Group. Governments around the world paid the company vast sums of money to gain access to Pegasus and let them use it to attack their targets.
Although the specific government agencies that purchased the software aren’t named in the data, their countries of origin can be deduced from the geographical clustering of the leaked phone numbers.
NSO Group insists that its software is meant to be used only against criminals and terrorists — but we found hundreds of journalists, activists, academics, lawyers, and even world leaders in the leak. In this interactive, you can explore a small sample of the data. It will be updated as more names are revealed.
Read the full project
#48-49 Brian
Thanks for showing us that we’re all equal, but some are more equal than others. The de-nazification of Ukraine has begun, with her oligarchy already gone. Leaving ordinary Ukrainians behind to deal with this shit show.
#51 Fartz – it’s not just a few Russians! I’m heartened by the sight. I’m sure many Russians have relatives in Ukraine too
Ukraine the West etc.
The West should not have been dangling NATO membership and arms sales to Ukraine, Ukraine should have remained very much like Finland has for the last 90 years. Independent, westernizing but not in the West’s camp.
The West has blown the last 30 years unipolar system by not adhering to a principles but instead being pragmatic….not walking the talk and promoting our system. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bFs6ZiynSU
#165 All lies and manipulated on 02.24.22 at 10:53 am
Unfortunately Leaders like Putin and XI made their countries better.
The West now has a very weak hand and that blame falls on the West’s “Globalist Elites”
For 30 years our elites have been gleefully increasing their wealth while outsourcing Western Industrial capacity and technology to China.
Our elites, on a binge to destroy our O&G energy sector, creating a deliberate dependence being created on sketchy foreign actors.
The West’s economies have piled high the debt, Not a position of strength.
No way around it the West is in decline and I lay it at the feet of the Global Elite class we harbour. Like parasites they send production overseas, hurt the society they reside in, destroy our industry and Jobs while they benefit immensely. Free Trade with completely unlike economies and ideologies, a 40 year cancer on Western societies.
While I do not like Pierre Poilievre questioning style I like his talk with Canada’s poster boy for Global Elitism; Mark Carney on pipelines:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPY_SxyNB5M
War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.
#59 Observer on 02.24.22 at 6:17 pm
Nato / USA have prepositioned nuclear weapons at six Nato bases in Europe which could be delivered by the stealthy F35 without any warning or radar signature to track. Not to mention the rest of Nato’s nuclear arsenal.
—
No this is very poor, Hollywood level strategy that shouldn’t even be bandied about at the bar.
Russia has missiles aimed at all major cities in the west, just as the west has missiles aimed at Russian targets. Even a “successful” first strike by NATO nations via F35 would be immediately followed by the launch of hundreds of nuclear enabled ICBMs positioned remotely from where the NATO strikes occurred including nuclear subs likely within easy striking distance of NA and western Europe.
The counter-strike would result in annihilation of 100 million+ US, Canadian and European civilians within hours and generations of exposure to nuclear fallout.
The odds of success are vanishingly small and certainly not worth contemplating.
Don’t even talk about it.
deliberately-unmasked people
never ever shall we tolerate them, not in a thousand years! Those misogynists, taking up space, clearly holding unacceptable views.
They broke the mask mandate law. Purposefully. Lock ’em up. – Garth
Good point on Martin Armstrong. His track record as a felon, is well know.
Their is a money talk show host, on the Left Coast that has him on, along with a so called Real Estate Guru who had class action court cases against him. Why even listen to these types of people with that type of track record.
So, August 1968, Russians invade Czechoslovakia for similar reasons. World is aghast, as it should have been.
Dow July 1968 = 7113
Dow Oct 1968 = 7585
On the other hand, the Dow had plummeted to 5102 by May 1970, but that was due to inflation and a spike in interest rates, not to mention the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
And “Hey Jude” was #1 for 7 weeks.
Attaboy, Vimy, bet you scared the hell out of the baddies. Well done. Enjoy your retirement.
Germany suspending Nord Stream 2 was a gutsy play, presumably to hit Russia hard right off the bat. Might make a few European allies angry though. But nothing, and I mean nothing will erase the blood from the despot’s hands. Putin’s a criminal.
“strongly encourages all Canadian organizations to take immediate action and bolster their online cyber defences.”
===============
The NotPetya attack of 2017, which devastated Ukrainian businesses, was a wiper attack that encrypted computers irretrievably and spilled over into other countries, causing $10bn (£7.5bn) of damage worldwide.
Massive cyber-electronic disruption is coming ASAP from Russia.
Combined with sudden shutdowns of 3G networks starting this week:
“Ending 3G service sparks fears of an “alarmaggedon”
https://www.axios.com/att-3g-sunset-wireless-disrupt-devices-728228cf-e15e-48b4-9896-d32dfd93e0ce.html
Putin has timed this well.
Be alert for cyber hacks and electrical shutdowns.
Assume that your primary defenses and back-up plans will be sabotaged.
This will get much, much worse.
PREPARE
P.S. My advisor keeps 1/4 of my twenties!!!
So I got 15 in ten months from 560 “invested”.
Putin is deserving of the same fate as Czar Nicholas II. Sooner, rather than later.
#43 T-Man
That’s funny.
You a comedian?
#54 Nonplused on 02.24.22 at 6:11 pm
Good points today Garth.
I still don’t think anybody knows what is going on in Ukraine.
—
Of course you don’t. It took you half a year to understand that Trump actually lost the election.
I dreamt last night I was sitting on our porch swing looking across the water to Vancouver, when suddenly appeared a bright flash, mushroom cloud and an all-encompassing roaring black curtain filling the sky.
Interpretation anyone?
Thanks Garth for introducing me to Mr Martin “reliable sources” Armstrong.
What a carefully constructed alternative reality he lives in. It’s interesting to see where some of the very strange ideas from the alt-right, Q-Anon, antivax world originate.
Kind of sad that people buy this stuff, literally as he sells a financial newsletter that pushes the preposterous “great reset” theory.
Having worked in big evil government and big evil private sector companies, I can assure everybody the ability for some secret billionaire club to carefully plan the enslavement of the world is purely James Bond evil genius stuff. Big organizations are simply incompetent at getting anything “big” done, especially in secret.
Even if this secret club existed good luck to them trying to control the world, people and the world are just are too unpredictable. It would be like herding cats that have had few espressos.
Look how a vanishing small group of antivaxxers made fools out of three levels of Canadian government, held hostage Ottawa and disrupted trade. All done without impunity for 3 weeks.
“Reliable Sources” – ha, ha. Seriously are people actually that gullible?
#2 Joel Wilson on 02.24.22 at 3:31 pm
Why are preferred shares tanking on the war news?
How is a decline of less than 1% today ‘tanking’? Read the post. It’s about bond yields. -= Garth
______________
Do you people not understand what a preferred share is and how they behave? Yet you still purchased them.
For the most part, when common shares plunge, prefs won’t be far behind. They offer dividends to keep you hooked, but you will rarely participate in most of the equity upside potential.
Banks took a huge hit today – some 3 or 4%.
Pref ETFS are heavily weighted in banks.
What were you expecting?
@#37 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.22 at 5:07 pm
#28 Elon Fanboy on 02.24.22 at 4:37 pm
To quote Jeff Goldblum in ‘Jurrasic Park’….
“I’m fairly alarmed here”
Russia may no be a world economic power but they have Nukes. And in a TV address this morning, Putin pretty much implied their use was on the table if the West interfered.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Putin also knows that he would get nuked in return if he tried that. It would be the end of Russia. Nato / USA have prepositioned nuclear weapons at six Nato bases in Europe which could be delivered by the stealthy F35 without any warning or radar signature to track. Not to mention the rest of Nato’s nuclear arsenal.
—————————
putin is clearly insane though so who knows how this ends.
@#43 T-Man on 02.24.22 at 5:39 pm
I propose if we must go to war, the first to go should be:
#1- Politicians and their sons and daughters.
#2- All mainstream media personalities and their families.
#3- All corporate leaders who sell weapons.
#4- Every armchair general who thinks war is just and noble.
————————–
nah, do everyone a favour and ship off
the freedumb fighters we have here.
hold the line dipshits.
All I know is this kind of stuff didn’t happen when our man Harper was in office. :)
I think after a few months of the invasion hype it was already priced in. Many stocks started to uptick around 1-2pm today. Stocks that would normally tank during a wartime launch, went up. Surrender terms are already on the table and it seems the event will be over with by the weekend. Very odd.
…First, Russia is not a major world economic power. Its economy ranks 11th and represents just 1.3% of the global economy.
**********
GDP is not good indicator – if you analyze what west countries including in it (some parts pretty fun). Need use purchasing power parity. Using this Russia has rank 6, Canada – 17 (some sources – 16).
https://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=20&v=65
Of course the police horses in Ottawa were pissed…. The anti vax clowns in the crowd had stolen their Ivermectin.
#44 RE_Investor on 02.24.22 at 5:45 pm
…
Good Luck everyone. I’m sure anyone reading this blog isn’t sitting on their hands and missing any market gains, right?! Oh wait, I do read the whinny comments every now and then, so I guess there is the random fool out there!
_______________
Yup, taking full advantage.
I’ve resurrected my options trading program.
Rolling in a grand a day for a few minutes work each day.
And what thanks do I get?
Wife, at tax time: Honey, what are these put and call thingies? Seemingly annoyed by the extra paperwork.
Even a grand a day doesn’t begin to move the needle on an eight figure portfolio.
So I do it just because I can… and I am currently bedridden.
Why not?
#43 T-Man on 02.24.22 at 5:39 pm
I propose if we must go to war, the first to go should be:
#1- Politicians and their sons and daughters.
#2- All mainstream media personalities and their families.
#3- All corporate leaders who sell weapons.
#4- Every armchair general who thinks war is just and noble.
Personally, I would have put Convoy Protesters at the top of my list. They have all the signature trademarks of the most successful warriors in history.
– inflated egos and sense of entitlement
– would show no empathy or compassion for others, innocent or otherwise
– well-funded
-well armed and many highly trained in the use of firearms
– willing to lay down their lives for the cause du jour.
Vladimir and company would be sent back home with their tails between their legs!
Yup… BOC is definitely going to hike.
Noticed that my HISA now pays a pathetic 0.45% instead of the soul crushing 0.25% it did last week. Not that I keep much cash, but it’s a noteworthy change.
Was the state of the economy and life in general better in 2019 than it was in 2020?
Was it better in 2020 than it was in 2021?
Was it better in 2021 than it is now in 2022?
Yes to all of the above.
Will 2022 be better than 2023?
Will 2023 be better than 2024?
Will 2024 be better than 2025?
Again…Yes to all of the above.
We are not in a time of gradual improvement year over year but of steady decline now.
The writings been on the wall for many years since the great recession but continually ignored.
There was this belief over the years we’d come to this eventually … but it would be a long way off so why worry.
We have been conditioned to believe we can just kick that can down the road to infinity, so let some future generation deal with the reckoning.
Few ever believed it would be arriving this early.
#69 Sail Away on 02.24.22 at 7:17 pm
I dreamt last night I was sitting on our porch swing looking across the water to Vancouver, when suddenly appeared a bright flash, mushroom cloud and an all-encompassing roaring black curtain filling the sky.
Interpretation anyone?
+++++++++++++++++
Don’t smoke the whole thing all at once. Just a puff or two will do it.
@#70 Sail away
“….suddenly appeared a bright flash, mushroom cloud and an all-encompassing roaring black curtain filling the sky.
Interpretation anyone?”
++++
A mild stroke.
As long as you also didn’t smell “burnt toast”….
Nothing to worry about.
@#53 cukes and tomatos
“Does anybody have any information on how the Russian
soldiers are treating the Ukraine people?”
+++
They’re shooting missiles, bombs, bullets and rockets at them.
So… I’d say, not very well.
Cardi B is weighing in on the Russia/Ukraine crisis:
“I’m really not on NATO’s side”, she continued. “I’m really not [on] Russia’s side. I’m actually in the citizens’ side, because in the end of the day, the world is having a crisis right now.”
“Wish these world leaders stop tripping about power and really think about whose really getting affected (citizens) besides the whole world is in a crisis,” “War, sanctions, invasions, should be the last thing these leaders should worry about.
Cardi B for President.
Perhaps we could send the “truckers” over to the Ukraine. According to them, they can defeat a tyrannical dictator in under 3 weeks with zero violence.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/02/23/russia-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion/
#53 cuke and tomato picker on 02.24.22 at 6:08 pm
Does anybody have any information on how the Russian
soldiers are treating the Ukraine people?
_________
Yes, I have it on reliable authority that Russians have been imparting psy op techniques by curtailing any and all perogies and potato pancakes meals henceforth.
I knew Vladimir was capable of nuclear warfare but this is just beyond incredibull!
#48 Brian on 02.24.22 at 5:54 pm
This is for you Observer!
About that video on the MSM showing Russian Airstrike in Ukraine. Turns out it’s a video of Israeli airstrike on the Gaza Strip in 2021.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-969210303435?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=APFactCheck
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thanks. From the link you gave: “Facebook users shared the image with the caption, “The invasion of Ukraine has begun.” However, a reverse-image search shows it was taken in May 2021 and was captured by the AFP photographer Mahmud Hams. ”
So, some people posted this image (you suggested video) on their facebook (you suggested MSM).
And your point is?
I’m wondering about that rate hike assessment…to me the bounce back so fast was proof of market resiliency. If it can recover from from a severe event like an attack on the Ukraine that easily then mere rate hikes won’t bother market sentiment at all.
Green light with a major unknown now known.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Pretty tough to get out the door to work this morning.
I woke up to 5 centimetres of snow and 6 feet of Faron’s posts…
M47BC
The ethical nightmare or swamp and the destructive nature of Social Media, is also carried over to traditional media, in terms, of journalistic qualifications, ethics, morals, and general anger. Granted a lot of the deterioration in reporting is the result of self preservation on part of the for profit media, being squeezed, hard, but we are all subject to the effects of the Deterioration. Seemed, to start with some newer media outlets in the US, that adopted the Tabloid, nonsense, and the surprise, to me, is how quickly folks, have embraced this crap. Dirty Laundry!!!
I see no such deterioration in Canada’s national media where editors and professional reporters provide a much-needed filter. Trump started a war on the MSM so he could rule via Twitter. Apparently it worked. – Garth
Bush
#59 Observer on 02.24.22 at 6:17 pm
#37 Yukon Elvis on 02.24.22 at 5:07 pm
#28 Elon Fanboy on 02.24.22 at 4:37 pm
To quote Jeff Goldblum in ‘Jurrasic Park’….
“I’m fairly alarmed here”
Russia may no be a world economic power but they have Nukes. And in a TV address this morning, Putin pretty much implied their use was on the table if the West interfered.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Putin also knows that he would get nuked in return if he tried that. It would be the end of Russia. Nato / USA have prepositioned nuclear weapons at six Nato bases in Europe which could be delivered by the stealthy F35 without any warning or radar signature to track. Not to mention the rest of Nato’s nuclear arsenal.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Maybe Putin is willing to risk going down in a blaze of glory as a second best outcome.
**********
That’s the wild card, what one man is willing to risk assuming Putin has the ability to call all the shots. Maybe he stops at Ukraine or parts of it…we’ll find out soon enough. Perfect distraction for China to make a move.
On another front:
Let inflation go unchecked and people lower their spending in a consumer driven economy. Momentum lost? Recession?
Where are Ukraines allies?
DELETED
82 Sailo
“I dreamt last night I was sitting on our porch swing looking across the water to Vancouver, when suddenly appeared a bright flash, mushroom cloud and an all-encompassing roaring black curtain filling the sky.
Interpretation anyone?”
———————————————–
CEF playing with matches again??
Never been to Ukraine.
Guess the closest I got was when I journeyed through Slovakia and Hungary.
Had time to go further East or up to Poland on that trip but when 3 skinheads came up to us in Bratislava and spat in our direction we decided to head south towards Croatia.
My wife was already a bit leery of Eastern Europe because of her brown skin and thought she might get mistaken for a Roma Gypsie.
Anyway we head through the underrated and beautiful Slovenia and finished up in Dubrovnik without further incident, after starting six weeks earlier in Prague.
That incident did spoil the trip a little though.
Not because they were terribly threatening, but because I couldn’t get Fleetwood Macs Gypsy song out of my head for the last half of the trip.
You see your Gypsy…
M47BC
———————————————————-
Visual Capitalist article on Ukraine.
Key facts about Ukraine.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/map-explainer-ukraine/
Brian, This is for you! And it’s from (not about) MSM:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to false or misleading videos and photographs being posted on social media claiming to be from the conflict.
Some of those checked by the BBC include footage from previous conflicts in Ukraine or elsewhere in the world, and images of troops on exercises.
Social media platforms such as Twitter seem to be taking a proactive role in confronting misleading content, removing several videos shown to be misleading by fact-checkers and researchers.
https://www.bbc.com/news/60513452
DELETED??? Wow, maybe war has begun…
Isn’t the truth the first casualty of war?
You were deleted for defamation, not facts. – Garth
Put was a KGB officer in the DDR when the wall came down. He called Moscow for back up. There was no reply.
He’s wet the bed ever since.
100 Fartz – yeah pretty imposing to have one of those drive by your house.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S19_Msta#:~:text=The%202S19%20Msta%20(Russian%3A%20%D0%9C%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0,%2D72's%20diesel%20engine.
104 Flop – good one!!
#94 willworkforpickles on 02.24.22 at 8:21 pm
Tons of people are thriving. We just don’t hear from them on here as much. And they definitely aren’t on any social media.
As our host has mentioned many times, “live quietly among the masses” is smart advice for the happy, successful, and content.
IDK
It was hard to imagine we could sink lower than deliberately-unmasked people shutting down a shopping centre or openly humiliating health care workers. But not any more.
Sadly I see society eroding into the swamp more and more – decency, compassion, kindness out the window and damn the torpedoes
This current situation with Russia and Ukraine goes back to when Trump began telling Nato and Europe to start pulling their weight militarily much more than they have been and to rely less on US resources.
And when Putin resolved to restore the old soviet buffer zone between Russia and Europe before a European army of threatening military force could become a reality.
The Ukraine is his with nobody to stop him now.
With the failure of a Nato resolve, Putin will move into Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania, pushing Nato out after securing the Ukraine.
Russia takes Ukraine – next up China takes Taiwan
Isn’t the truth the first casualty of war?
You were deleted for defamation, not facts. – Garth
———————————————————-
Sheesh, everyone is so sensitive these days.
I’ll try again,
“Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of war”
It’s unfortunate that the US’s current energy policies preclude them from any meaningful sanctions against Russia as they are still importing 10’s of millions of barrels of oil every year from Russia.. The Keystone XL may have helped with that, oh well C’est la vie..but I do hope, like John Kerry, that Russia won’t slip up on their climate change commitments now that they’re trying to re-annex much of Eastern Europe….
Interesting how the news gets skewed.
As the quote goes, nothing happens within the government by accident.
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-officials-who-met-with-ukrainian-unit-linked-to-neo-nazis-feared-exposure-by-news-media-documents/wcm/24a6d3f0-8da6-4f3c-ae60-72a5da758579/amp/
#67 T-Man on 02.24.22 at 6:31 pm
The de-nazification of Ukraine has begun
—
Garth, I’m surprised you let this Russian propaganda line through.
Wasn’t it stated here in recent days the “market” was 100% on a BoC rate hike next Wednesday. Dang, how things can change on a dime. I guess the market isn’t so smart. Given the situation was still looming, 100% was maybe a bit ambitious? Well, I guess they still could go, but not if the Fed hike is off the table. Tiff hasn’t got the stones.
They have taken every excuse not to raise each time. I don’t see this being any different.
Our thoughts with all those in the Ukraine.
Who cares about buying a house when people are losing their homes and possibly their country to a maniac.
#81 Faron on 02.24.22 at 7:12 pm
Good points today Garth.
===============
You were suppose to put down the key board and stop kissing butt.
The best comment by a politician so far on Putin’s folly.
“A deluded autocrat creating misery for millions…”
They broke the mask mandate law. Purposefully. Lock ’em up. – Garth
Hmmm…. before this moment, I thought law is something that is produced by properly elected legislators through the proper parliamentary procedure. But clearly in this brave new world this definition is outdated.
Ottawa has a mask mandate. What part of ‘law’ do you not understand? – Garth
The Ukrainians have already won..they won their “identity”. Come on Russia..welcome home to the end of this one and only adventure in this century because Canada has enough oil and gas to keep the herd hot in winter and cool in summer till the cows come home. By the way, Canada has decades of carbon left to fuel democracy. Lots of Love from the Great White North.
Martial law. Nobody 16-60 can leave Ukraine. So much for Canadian corporations and housing speculators salivating over Ukrainian immigrants.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/24/7325577/
It was among the most worrying developments on an already shocking day, as Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday: warfare at the Chornobyl nuclear plant, where radioactivity is still leaking from history’s worst nuclear disaster 36 years ago.
Russian forces took control over the site after a fierce battle with Ukrainian national guards protecting the decommissioned plant, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told The Associated Press. The condition of the plant’s facilities, a confinement shelter and a repository for nuclear waste is unknown, he said.
An official familiar with current assessments said Russian shelling hit a radioactive waste repository at Chornobyl, and an increase in radiation levels was reported. The increase could not be immediately corroborated.
…
Ukrainian Interior Ministry adviser Anton Herashenko warned that any attack on the waste repository could send radioactive dust over “the territory of Ukraine, Belarus and countries of the EU.”
…
The International Atomic Energy Agency said it is following the situation in Ukraine “with grave concern” and appealed for maximum restraint to avoid any action that may put Ukraine’s nuclear facilities at risk.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/chornobyl-no-go-zone-targeted-as-russia-invades-ukraine-1.5794537
Tainting of our banks international brand is the problem. That and the slam dunk class action suit from people who were frozen out.
Attacking through Chernobyl was diabolical, the least defended spot. Hopefully Putin victory won’t embolden China to try something on Taiwan.
#63 Observer on 02.24.22 at 6:23 pm
#54 Nonplused on 02.24.22 at 6:11 pm
I still don’t think anybody knows what is going on in Ukraine. There are posts circulating showing Russian aircraft flying in formation that were taken at air shows and an explosion that occurred in China. Pure fabrication. Something is happening, that’s for sure, but it’ll take some days to find out what it is/was.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Are you living on a different planet?
—————————.
Gotta go with Nunplused on this on.
To early to call.
#82 Sail Away on 02.24.22 at 7:17 pm
I dreamt last night I was sitting on our porch swing looking across the water to Vancouver, when suddenly appeared a bright flash, mushroom cloud and an all-encompassing roaring black curtain filling the sky.
Interpretation anyone?
——————
Haha,
Don’t tempt us.
if you are wondering about Trumpists and freedom truckers it may be informative that humans share 50% of their DNA with bananas
Who do you think has done more lying, the example you gave, along with a few others, or the combined federal,provincial, and local gov’ts?
Add in the bought media, and the truth gets kinda sketchy.
I’ll take my chances with some ‘fringe truckers’ who actually see the outside world happening
Garth just so you know for your readers, here over the pond, the term suspender-snapping refers to ladies or drag queens pulling up their skirts and snapping the suspenders that hold up their stocking to entice chaps. I believe that what Ryan has on his hairy chest are braces. These are elastic items that go over the shoulders to hold your trousers up. These are often red in London and hence we have the term ‘the red brace brigade’ a collective noun for Ryan’s sort. I’ve seen his photo though and he can snap his braces at me any time he wants.
Yes I read your column in 1987 and sold my stocks and lost a lot as the stocks recovered over a short window. But I learned too and you are forgiven.
Garth, why isn’t Canada supplying Europe instead of Russia? Why is Biden rushing a nuclear deal with Iran to supply oil? Shouldn’t that money stay here to build hospitals etc? Where is the logic of Carney and Kerry to kill Canada’s energy but open it widely elsewhere when there’s no green industries in Iran? Can you explain?
Any deviations from Trudeau and our governments narrative was exposed by live video feed of the actual events.
Our media and politicians were exposed as you couldn’t dispute what people and other politicians worldwide were seeing.
The video feeds were absolutely brutal in how PM Trudeau wasn’t political material and now has a toxic name.
I don’t see another politician on this planet wanting to associate with the Trudeau government regime.
Here in warm sunny Miami the price of jumbo stone crabs at Joe’s is $130.00. February 2020 they were $90.00
You do know that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish, and that Vladimir Putin is the aggressor, right? I hope I never find myself in a foxhole next to you! :(
@#137 Joe LaLonde
“I don’t see another politician on this planet wanting to associate with the Trudeau government regime.”
+++
Give it time.
I’m sure Putin will come around.
@#135 Jane24
“Garth just so you know for your readers, here over the pond,”
+++
Apologies if Garth offended less than one tenth of one percent of his viewing audience.
Not to worry.
This is politically correct Canada
We’ll change 99.99% of Canadian terms so we don’t offend even the smallest minority of people.
Even if they don’t live here and pay taxes here.
Woke terminology is now enshrined in our Laws.
Canada is one big safe space where bunny rabbits and wolves frolic together in harmony.
A Ukrainian woman tells Russian invaders as she offered them sunflower seeds,
“Put sunflower seeds in your pockets so when you die here our national flower will grow..”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/youll-die-here-ukrainian-woman-tells-russian-troops-ks9jhgc2p
They didnt take her up on her offer of free seeds
@#121 Faron on 02.24.22 at 10:35 pm
#67 T-Man on 02.24.22 at 6:31 pm
The de-nazification of Ukraine has begun
—
Garth, I’m surprised you let this Russian propaganda line through.
–
more surprised that dope and his ilk haven’t been banned.
Putin is a good man.
He made sure that the Russian soldiers were all fully vaccinated and masked before they stormed the Ukrainian border.
The Ukrainian population is safe, because COVID is the real enemy.
Ask Justin Trudeau.
#136 Debbie Rondah on 02.25.22 at 3:40 am
Garth, why isn’t Canada supplying Europe instead of Russia? Why is Biden rushing a nuclear deal with Iran to supply oil? Shouldn’t that money stay here to build hospitals etc? Where is the logic of Carney and Kerry to kill Canada’s energy but open it widely elsewhere when there’s no green industries in Iran? Can you explain?
============
T2 and his stupid green plan crushing pipelines and stopping natgas cause is bad is an ignorat disatetous policy with all his idiotic carbon tax is only adding to the inflation problem at the same time reducing our independance.
Sad head shaker.
The guys a nut.
#64 Perspective
Recent events showing what an incredible lack of historical perspective the “Freedom Convoy” folks had. And to think they actually thought they didn’t have any freedom. Look at what’s happening in Ukraine or in Russia with the protestors. See what lack of freedom actually looks like.
———————————————————————————————————
If the Canadian Freedom Convoy converged on the Kremlin, Putin would be brought to his knees.
**********************************************
If Faron is reading this, don’t say anything.
It’s JOKE, ok?
I’m KIDDING!
Sheesh.
Unfortunately XI and Putin have the same plan.
XI to take Hong Kong Taiwan and keep moving.
Putin to take Ukraine the baltics and continue to expand.
Europe they have unelected dumb asses in Brussles and Europe’s a failed entity.
USA and Kanada have Dumb and Dumber at the helm.
And Put and XI know it.
The worlds likely to change alot and not for the good. Democracy is on the roaps.
I’m way behind on comments. OK – how about this:
We (whatever is my fictitious future firm) believe it would be an adequate opportunity to examine one’s portfolio and considering slight tweaks from overweight to underweight positions.
DISCLAIMER: i’m an anonymous fool on a pathetic blog
Thanks for any feedback, Mr. Sail Away! All in good fun.
PS and T2 speaks about demoracy its hot air as hes the last one to truly defend it.
Whahoo Cancun here we come lookout Cartel!
#132 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.25.22 at 1:53 am
#82 Sail Away on 02.24.22 at 7:17 pm
I dreamt last night I was sitting on our porch swing looking across the water to Vancouver, when suddenly appeared a bright flash, mushroom cloud and an all-encompassing roaring black curtain filling the sky.
Interpretation anyone?
———-
Haha,
Don’t tempt us.
———-
I viewed it as a bleak warning based on recent disturbing events and reached this conclusion:
Never, ever, under any circumstances allow Faron access to nuclear codes.
#139- Gravey Train; Which country has been spoiling for a fight here? Well, now they’re soiling their britches, and NATO ain’t riding to the rescue. So what if he’s Jewish, ask the Right Sector and Azov Battalion soldiers if they approve. Or the Bandera worshippers among the population of Ukraine. I wouldn’t be cowering in a foxhole with the likes of you, Graveyard Train.
The UKrain war is over , let’s move on to the important stuff , like Trudeaus war on Canada. Why are Trudeau and Carney killing Canadian energy jobs in favor of UAE and Iran exporting oil ? Doesn’t Canada need to build schools and hospitals too? Keep that money here and export Canadas ethical oil, not buy dubious Saudi oil. It’s stupid.
If rates started rising in 2010 at weenzy 0.25% per year,… by 2018 they would have been 2%+. add another 1% for the tightening cycle prior to covid and they would have been 3%! it would have been so easy considering the leverage/debt of the time.
Alas, but it seems to me that they will forever find an excuse not to normalize. Ukraine war is a beautiful excuse! In fact, considering the circumstances, Canada can still drop -0.25 in the next year or so and still keep rates at “0”! That’s above negative!!!
Housing in Canada couldn’t care one shred about world affairs in some eastern block country…but, if there’s money to be made and debt is free, to the moon it will go…Greater fools be damed!!!
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/how-putins-invasion-will-worsen-inflation-170305059.html
Inflations is Russian’s fault apparently.
91 CALLing PUTin on 02.24.22 at 8:11 pm
Yup, taking full advantage.
I’ve resurrected my options trading program.
Rolling in a grand a day for a few minutes work each day.
And what thanks do I get?
Wife, at tax time: Honey, what are these put and call thingies? Seemingly annoyed by the extra paperwork.
Even a grand a day doesn’t begin to move the needle on an eight figure portfolio.
So I do it just because I can… and I am currently bedridden.
Why not?
—————-
Sorry to hear you’re bedridden, get well soon!
Good to hear you’re not sitting still with your investments.
Same with me on the 8 figures. Just passed that mark, but yeah, just on paper with Real Estate. Even if prices decline, I’m set with the +ve cash flow.
Good Luck and keep playing those option spreads!.
#148 Prince Polo on 02.25.22 at 9:26 am
#18 Sail Away on 02.21.22 at 4:08 pm
#10 Prince Polo on 02.21.22 at 3:32 pm
…one should capitalize on market sales by opportunistically rebalancing from winners to losers.
———
If your career plans include client interactions in the wealth management profession, a bit of wordsmithing may be helpful.
———
I’m way behind on comments. OK – how about this:
We (whatever is my fictitious future firm) believe it would be an adequate opportunity to examine one’s portfolio and considering slight tweaks from overweight to underweight positions.
DISCLAIMER: i’m an anonymous fool on a pathetic blog
Thanks for any feedback, Mr. Sail Away! All in good fun.
———
Haha. That probably would work better than:
‘After examining your returns, Margaret, my advice would be to sell the winners and buy a bunch of losers.’
Why are the Russians even using military force in this situation, can they not just get 400 truckers of their own and use them as an occupational force for insurrection like what just occurred in our country.
We should be thankful that the truckers did not get access to our launch codes for our perpetual dry docked submarine fleet or our grounded brand new helicopter squadrons, along with fighter squadrons that basically are at half capacity because there a so few spare parts. I guess the ground forces could have been called into action but guns are now bad so they will have to be unarmed, unable to get peoplekind to stop because they will not know which pronoun to use to get them to follow orders.
You also have to admire the brave media who are now upset over the fact that truckers were swearing in the background of the interviews, can you fornicating believe that those rectums had the testicles to use that type of language in front of the media. I guess they will now need to have someone to accompany every reporter on every interview to cover the reports ears whenever a bad word comes out so as to not trigger them.
This is exactly what our media is coming to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24ib5pMkprY
@Sil Away
Would the resident sociopath care to elaborate?
Stick to the finances Garth. Your views are no different than the duped citizens of the Nazi regime. Soon you’ll be justifying the next unthinkable thing.
Give us a honk, Kyle. – Garth
“The odds of a whopping Fed bank rate increase (half a point) in a couple of weeks, followed by a slew of hikes later in 2022 is kaput. At least for today.”
That was a silly prediction/guess as I said many times before.
No one can predict on scientific basis what will happen next quarter, never mind several quarters into the future.
There are almost 8 billion people on earth, motivated by fear, greed, and guided by a half broken moral compass.
You cannot make guesses anchored on wishful thinking and call it analysis.
No guess was made, however market odds were given. And rates will rise. – Garth
Comrade Turner,
I will need that MOEX share price recovery quickly.
Please use your client funds to purchase my stocks at ask price by Monday 5 pm Moscow time.
Would you like a visit as well? That can be arranged.
#158 Faron on 02.25.22 at 10:23 am
@Sil Away
Would the resident sociopath care to elaborate?
——-
Ad hominem.
Ad nauseum, ad infinitum. Iterum atque iterum.
Forget the noise. Forget the bs. The Fed has no choice but to start raising rates.
DELETED (Anti-mask)
There is nothing the Fed is going to do to upend their plan of pretending to get inflation under control.
I smell a hate on sailo and Faron.
Time to grow up or find a sand box.
But then again everyone loves a show.
The use of terms like “siege”, “invasion”, “occupation” to describe the Ottawa protests rings absolutely absurd in light of the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Language matters and so do false equivalencies. I’m pretty sure the Russians are heading to Kyiv with more than air horns, hot tubs, and street hockey gear.
Likewise the invocation of the Emergencies Act (basically a renamed War Measures Act.) Quite the “war” that was there in Ottawa. At some point people defending the decision will have to make up their minds: the situation was so dire it was completely imperative, yet somehow only needed for about 5 minutes? And if the protest was so quickly and easily defeated just how dangerous WAS it? Can’t have it both ways.
And don’t bother trying to claim that the domestic backlash, global condemnation, and likely negative Senate vote had nothing to with Trudeau’s farcically hasty backtrack. This is a clown who governs by opinion polls, not policy. Canada is a global laughingstock. In a tragic way I’m sure JT is grateful the spotlight has been shifted completely by the war.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-why-were-still-suing-the-trudeau-government-over-its-use-of-the-emergencies-act
@#164 Chris L. on 02.25.22 at 12:01 pm
DELETED (Anti-mask)
–
more like Anti-intellectualism
Stock market up as Ukraine war rages
It’s almost disgusting and to see the U.S. market up 2% today on top of a gain yesterday.
This goes to show how hard things are to predict. Those who are great at predictions like this are welcome to make a fortune day trading. Not something I could ever do.
I am doing nothing but nibbling a very little on dips. I may be over-exposed to equities but so be it. I will ride it out. Today’s reaction to the ride is a very muted “whee”. It would be impolite and heartless to celebrate this gain other than very very quietly. Who knows what the morrow brings? (Well, Monday).
Scoff at those who predicted lasting declines because of a regional war. They do not know history. – Garth
#166 All lies and manipulated on 02.25.22 at 12:20 pm
I smell a hate on sailo and Faron.
Time to grow up or find a sand box.
But then again everyone loves a show.
——-
Hate? By no means. Or definitely not on my side. I can’t remember ever hating anyone or anything, although I did get quite annoyed with my cousin once when he filled my boots with water and froze them solid at hunting camp for a joke.
I am happy to cheerfully disagree with points of view, but will occasionally call out/mock someone who resorts to name-calling or melts down into all-out take no prisoners, salted earth nuclear annihilation animosity.
That’s just uncivilized.
#136 Debbie Rondah on 02.25.22 at 3:40 am
Garth, why isn’t Canada supplying Europe instead of Russia? Why is Biden rushing a nuclear deal with Iran to supply oil? Shouldn’t that money stay here to build hospitals etc? Where is the logic of Carney and Kerry to kill Canada’s energy but open it widely elsewhere when there’s no green industries in Iran? Can you explain?
===
Very good point. Long-term, green energy is good, it will cripple a few dictatorships that currently thrive on oil and gas exports.
But in the interim, it is utterly stupid to suppress our own oil and gas production only to have it replaced with foreign fossil fuels, and empower the said dictatorships.
The green energy transition must be based on robust technical planning, not on the populist desire to look as “green” as possible.
Meanwhile the Canadian Bankers Association reports no run (of course). – Garth
Of course no run on banks… BUT I’m sure it hasn’t gone unnoticed that the Canadian government can at any moment of its choice freeze or seize ordinary Canadian’s bank accounts, they can do it even without voting a law, they can do it by just declaring an imaginary emergency and announce it behind a microphone, the Police and the Canadian bank cartel will oblige no questions asked.
I’m pretty sure many Canadians did at the very least ask themselves if it would be a good idea to open a bank account somewhere else, just in case… I know I did and I am.
In the past 2 years you’ve seen how easy it was for politicians in this country, without even voting on it, to control what you can and cannot do, entire business sectors closed, curfews, not to mention the various vaccine mandates, and much more!
What’s going to happen in the next crisis, which could be a real emergency. For example if there is a severe financial crisis (not unlikely at all in Canada) what is to stop them to steal your money.
Whose money was stolen? You really need a new schtick. This drama is old. – Garth
#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.25.22 at 7:17 am
@#135 Jane24
“Garth just so you know for your readers, here over the pond,”
+++
Apologies if Garth offended less than one tenth of one percent of his viewing audience.
Not to worry.
This is politically correct Canada
We’ll change 99.99% of Canadian terms so we don’t offend even the smallest minority of people.
Even if they don’t live here and pay taxes here.
Woke terminology is now enshrined in our Laws.
Canada is one big safe space where bunny rabbits and wolves frolic together in harmony.
****************
I don’t think Jane24 was offended but rather pointing out the difference between UK (and Australian, NZ, South African) English terminology vs American. The latter of which Canada is increasingly using.
DELETED
I’m off stateside for some R+R in the coastal town I hope to retire to one day. I’m sure you will all miss me! Here’s one roll-up reply. Maybe one more before I go.
#143 KLNR on 02.25.22 at 8:46 am
@#121 Faron on 02.24.22 at 10:35 pm
#67 T-Man on 02.24.22 at 6:31 pm
The de-nazification of Ukraine has begun—
I am also surprised and disappointed especially because this person has trolled under other handles.
#166 All lies and manipulated on 02.25.22 at 12:20 pm
Ya think!? Hate-on is a bit strong. More like disgust on my end.
#162 Sail Away on 02.25.22 at 11:35 am
First of all, your attack was an out-of-the-blue slanderous insult. And, because it wasn’t an argument or a valid position, my response cannot be seen as an ad hominem attack. Sorry. You wield impeccable spelling and grammar and occasional wordiness to no useful ends as always.
Regardless, you have provided this comments section with zero evidence that you are anything but a sociopath. Expressions of humility, remorse, non-wealth-based appreciation of your fellow humans are exceedingly rare while you continually carry water for racists (i.e. Trump among others) killers (i.e. Rittenhouse) agit-prop “journalists” (Ngo) frauds (Musk; happy to provide links in support of all of these) while minimizing the deaths of thousands due to COVID and tittering about things like running over cyclists yourself several times or occurrences of same in far-flung corners of the globe (that race baiting and hateful bizpacreview article) while calling the war in Ukraine a “thingy”.
Everyone who reads this comments section sees this. A portion think it’s kind of cool while the rest see it as gross and kinda wonder WTF is wrong with you.
I know precisely what is wrong with me and, in a less shark-infested venue, would share that. It’s a struggle. Fixing one’s crap is tough. You seem to think you are perfect while continually outpacing me in comment volume in all the years I’ve commented here. You are long overdue for a hard look at yourself if your activities here are any indication.
NPK.TO, nice 17% bump up today.
#167 RicardoRich on 02.25.22 at 12:20 pm
“This is a clown who governs by opinion polls, not policy.”
Best comment! And very accurate for sure.
How convenient this war is for central bankers. Makes you wonder if that may have played a role in conning Ukraine into applying for NATO membership…
Does this make sense:
1) Russia is causing inflation (statements in US media)
2) Because of war we’ll keep interest rates low
As far as I can tell that increases inflation.
What excuse for not raising interest rates will they invent after this war is over?
> Apocalypse NOW
Oh, man… He’s back.
DELETED
#169 Shawn on 02.25.22 at 1:34 pm
Scoff at those who predicted lasting declines because of a regional war. They do not know history. – Garth
Garth is right of course and the economic numbers this week were solid. I’ll add that one should expect volatility as macro impacts of the war come into and leave view. In addition to Garth’s macro, there is a shorter-term market reflexive dynamic that explains both the index decline on war fears and sharp bounce after the war starts.
As I noted a few days ago, when VIX spikes it implies a lot of hedging in the S&P options chain from which the VIX is calculated. The hedging means options market-makers selling puts. They then have to short the underlying to stay delta neutral (meaning not exposed to the movement of the underlying — their income is in harvesting premium).
As soon as the market doesn’t crash, the market makers have to unwind those shorts because of decaying theta and vanna meaning buying the underlying. This forms a feedback loop that amplifies the market moves. This is one component of a short-squeeze that gives rise to the truth in the saying “markets climbing a wall of worry” and “sell the rumor, buy the news”. High VIX can act as fuel and is not just a passive market metric, but an interactive component of equity prices.
Yesterday, the indexes saw massive moves after the spike in the VIX probably for this reason.
Whose money was stolen? You really need a new schtick. This drama is old. – Garth
Protest funding money was stolen.
No, it was refunded. Stop trying to create an outrage that does not exist. – Garth
#175 Faron on 02.25.22 at 2:05 pm
…while you continually carry water for racists (i.e. Trump among others) killers (i.e. Rittenhouse) agit-prop “journalists” (Ngo) frauds (Musk; happy to provide links in support of all of these)
——
Ad hominem, or at least slurs. Except Rittenhouse, who is indeed a killer.
I feel a civic duty to point out intellectually dishonest arguments. It’s a bit of a calling.
Understand with the above that I am criticizing your words, not you as a person. This is important to honest and intelligent debate.
My two cents,
#1, First thing, I hope, ideally, no one dies due to any wars. Yes I know it’s just wishful thinking.
Hopefully it doesn’t go nuclear at all.
Information in the fog of wars is never clear. I’m sure there are two sides to the storey. What’s that saying the winners get to write the history books.
What is true, I have no idea? If communication that happened before hand, some part of it, sending info, receiving info, and understanding info, didn’t work again, if it even could have stopped this.
Mankind and history, why can’t we all just get along seems to keep repeating, most unfortunately and immediately for any of the people in the line of fire. And people keep making weapons to kill other people. What a mad mad world it is we are born into. At least there are some nice things in this world/life to think about also.
#2, Stay invested, yes. It will pass like other times most likely, and you can’t time the markets, trying to just mean you miss out on the up side or lose money selling in a panic. If it gets bad enough, most likely not, there will be worse things to worry about than money anyway. Stick to the plan, we will all get old and need money to live on after all. Don’t over worry, take a deep breath and stop watching the news if you find it helps you feel better.
#3, I have no inside info on bank run thing, I don’t have any inside banker contacts.
And I certainly don’t want the system to fail. That would be very bad for everyone.
But I don’t recall hearing any of the bank say the freezing of people accounts was perhaps a bad idea if you want people to keep thinking it is safe to use them without question. But maybe I missed see that part.
re:”Anyone showing up at their bank wanting five grand in cash last week was treated as always – denied, since such a request must be made in advance.”
I’m not sure what bank you use, but the green one, my statement that arrive in the mail yesterday shows I took out 5x cash on both on the 15th and 16th, no phone call needed by me, I just walked in. I was not denied just limited to 5x. And if I wanted another 5x same day she said I could use the machine by the door on my way out. If you need a photo of my statement sent as proof, I’ll keep it on holding for a bit.
And not sure what you can infer if anything from this, on the 21st, family day, my wife did some machine banking at the S… bank for her bowling ledge and the machine didn’t give her any 20’s or smaller she was expecting, only 2 50’s.
#4, I can’t confirm this but, one contact guy I know personally clams to have moved his money to credit union and then took it out as cash, a lots more than me, to put in his floor safe (How need a floor safe, not me). He told me he and 6 friend have chartered a plane to leave soon to go live in Texas, with the fire arms they own, which some I’m sure will think is a good thing they are leaving Canada LOL.
Given the T2 government demonstration that one day they can decide they don’t like you, what you think and say or your future CCP social credit score is low and they cut off access to your own money.
That WEF, you’ll own nothing and be happy. Or they’ll starve you, doesn’t seem so unimaginable now.
Yes they would need the EP act again, but the bar seems now to be set not so high, and the senate wasn’t even allowed to vote on it at all. I’m guessing because it wouldn’t have passed given the conditions had changed so much for the better by then.
What else is T2 planning on pushing though soon.
More surveillance, more censorship, more CCP social credit score AI controls for the people taking up space with views that he finds unacceptable.
#5, Sociopaths thankfully there aren’t very many % wise (hopefully) but some can cause terrible problems for the many normal (whatever that means) people in the whole world. Some are very hard to spot unfortunately. You’re always lucky if you can spot them, and with a bit of luck you can then stop them from causing you and others unnecessary harm.
I’ve heard couple people mention they wondered if Putin and/or T2 are maybe … I guess that may depend on your point of view.
And not being an ‘expert’ at all on the subject, hopefully of the few in the world that might be sociopaths they are able to go throw live without bothering others much at all. Again wishful thinking on my part perhaps.
#5, inflation isn’t good for the average person at all and the higher it is the worse it is. So if the CB raising rates actually can help bring it back down without making it terrible worse than letting it going up a lot. And given they saying they will start raising rates, hopefully they at least start doing so a bit. I hope it helps control inflation without slowing the economy too badly which would hurting people too.
I’m wising they can get it right for the people and there kids.
Latest Warren Buffett annual letter is out:
This is must-read material. The integrity and intelligence of Warren Buffett shine through.
He said he is a business-picker, not a stock picker. That observation alone is golden.
This letter is carefully crafted and edited multiple times over a period of months or at least weeks. In the end it shines like a diamond. The writing quality is suburb.
If that’s boot-licking, I don’t care. I recognize and appreciate quality when I see it.
Read the letter! Now!
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2021ltr.pdf