The victim

Yesterday, this pathetic blog intoned, a lot of people 40ish or younger will have to learn a new economic reality. Inflation. Rising interest rates. And the consequences of tightening credit. Another good lesson involves recency – the naïve belief that what exists today will dictate tomorrow. In time, you learn that’s just not so.

But we all love to think we live in unique times. That we’re victimized in a special way. And that others who came before us had it so much easier. Like, say, Josh.

Mr. Falken (fake name), is apparently a Millennial with no real estate but a big chip on his shoulder. He’s probably urban – Toronto or Vancouver – although his IP says Munich, Germany. This tells us he’s maybe an IT guy in Ontario, living with mom and dealing with all the vile emotions that brings.

Well, he came here yesterday to take this dump on my site:

“Adulting is hard. Welcome.” Thanks for this, Garth. A slap in the face of all us young and middle-aged folks who’ve had their chance of ever generating wealth taken away from them. Insane RE prices over >10 years, now rampant inflation and an about-to-implode stock market. No matter how hard one works, there is no safe place. Maybe this is the reason behind the “mysterious” Great Resignation? Corrupt politicians who have implemented policies over decades which coincidentally only benefitted their own old-money friends, throwing the younger generations under the bus. Meanwhile, I get to work my a** off in toxic, stressful, burnout-creating work places so that some old fart can buy their third house. At the same time, it’s been clear for a while that I will never be able to afford even one – and now also no nice car or vacation anymore. I’ve had it – I will focus on my family, my health, my hobbies. Good luck with your “capitalism”.

Classic victim talk. Poor Joshua. The chance to generate wealth ripped from him forever. Corrupt politicians purposefully throwing young adults under the bus. Forced to work in a toxic place. Denied a house because old farts are buying them all. And now ‘rampant’ inflation of 5% (in 1980 it was 12.5%) means never affording a vacation. Or a car. Waah. It’s not me. It’s them. Unfair.

Is any of this true? Or is the kiddo a drama queen? The stereotypical entitled Mill who expects to graduate into a six-figure job and retire at 45?

Beats me. But the whining and moaning here on a gratis blog of financial, real estate and canine advice seems churlish. So let’s just review a few of the things that Mr. Fake IP has been gifted over the last few years, pre-pandemic and during the Covid years.

When the wailing over urban real estate prices hit a crescendo in 2017 the blog advice was simple. Get out of Dodge. Leave YVR or the GTA and relocate in a community you can afford. Yeah, maybe it’s an hour away with no Starbucks but if real estate is that important, the path to affording some would lead to Squamish or Woodstock or a plethora of other places where houses cost half, or less.

And now? The greatest price appreciation has been in the burbs, the hinterland, the hick cities lying outside the urban commutershed. Values there have soared by 40% or better, beating gains in 416 or Kits. Those who followed this advice took a meaningful step onto the property ladder while those who stayed in the city and whimpered are SOL.

In the autumn of 2021, when the pandemic had eased then flared again, this blog pointed out condo prices in all major markets had slipped significantly. In the GTA, for example the decline was 15% overall and 20% in the core. If that’s the kind of real estate you want, we said, bite it. And now condo listings are scant, demand is growing rapidly as the cities repopulate and prices have erupted.

During the Covid-induced market collapse of March, 2020, this pathetic blog told you pandemics are always temporary and the stock plop was something to ignore or (if you had the money) to take advantage of. We also told you there’d be a reopening trade as vaccines were developed and deployed and maintaining a balanced portfolio would be wise. And it was. The B&D return over the next two years was almost 30%.

The blog told you, poor Josh, how to harness the TFSA and what exactly to put into a portfolio. We showed you how to mitigate investing risk even as stock markets set record after record. How to corral volatility and avoid the seriously weird mistakes being made by the Reddit crew, the crypto maniacs, the GameStoppers and Robinhooders. We gave you (for free) an historic perspective because none of this is new. Except to you.

The blog told you when 10-year mortgage rates had hit the lowest point in history (the 2% range) and suggested it would be a wise move to lock in, given what was likely to come over the next few years. Now that rate’s gone. Maybe forever, as you fretted.

The blog is now telling you where rates are headed. When the increases will start. How many hikes there will likely be, and what to do about it. It’s also detailing the expected impact on house prices and sales, in the next three months, and then beyond when supply increases and demand is hobbled by tighter credit.

In short, Joshanonymous, you’ve been handed lots of decent chances to build wealth, save on tax, position for the future, take advantage of opportunities and, yeah, get your covetous hands on some real estate. I know it’s a lot easier to bitch and flummox, to blame your elders, and me (giving you free advice) than it is to act on the information and facts handed to you.

But grow up, son. It’s about to get real.

About the picture: “OREO is a 10 year old shih tzu – mini dachshund cross,” writes Rod. “He, like most Canadians, has seen some element of restrictions in daily life over the last several years.”

265 comments ↓

#1 Summertime on 02.17.22 at 1:44 pm

The 5.1 % is actually higher than the 1980-es 12.5 %
if we use the same measure of inflation and not comparing apples to oranges. How mush were the rates in 1980-es, 18 %?

What should we expect now, 20 %? or 2 %?

#2 Mike on 02.17.22 at 1:48 pm

Well said Garth!

#3 Stratovarious on 02.17.22 at 1:51 pm

Perhaps your best blog post EVER.

Time to confront the entitled generation with cold hard reality. Unfortunately, they likely don’t have any money because it all went to $10 coffees and new I-Phones. Perhaps you could remind “Josh” that a lot of “old farts” went without to build wealth. It is called priorities.

I am liking the more aggressive Garth.

#4 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 1:56 pm

Mr. Falken (fake name), is apparently a Millennial with no real estate but a big chip on his shoulder. He’s probably urban – Toronto or Vancouver – although his IP says Munich, Germany. This tells us he’s maybe an IT guy in Ontario, living with mom and dealing with all the vile emotions that brings.
———————-
He could be in Germany.
Germany’s RE is going through the roof, too.
Whining and blaming the Elders is called “The Rich World Syndrome”.

#5 Blobby on 02.17.22 at 1:57 pm

When I look at the genuine poverty my parents grew up in (their first house didn’t even have indoor plumbing! And for the first 10 years of my life, the toilet was a bucket in the bedroom, or down the bottom of the “garden”, garden being not exactly descriptive of the reality).

And then the poverty my grandparents had, and they had a war too!

To see kids moaning nowadays that they have it so hard, when their standard of living is amazing, blows my mind. “I have it so hard, I have to quit my job because I can’t afford a Tesla or a 5 bedroom house”.

Cry me a river.

#6 Summertime on 02.17.22 at 1:58 pm

Mr. Falken (fake name),

This was amazingly honest and correct representation of how the majority of young Canadians feel these days. Screwed at best, while trying to retain integrity when authorities have no integrity whatsoever which is hard and wrong.

#7 Dave Ahem on 02.17.22 at 1:59 pm

If you could cash in your TFSA and non-registered accounts and pay off your mortgage, would you?

I have been thinking about this for a long time. I would still have about 200K in RRSP’s and a DB Pension with a bit in it but not much else. I’m 41. With the looming rise of inflation and a stock market that has reached record highs, does it make sense to lock in my portfolio returns by selling and paying off my mortgage so I have no exposure to potentially skyrocketing rates?

Opinions welcome.

#8 Lee on 02.17.22 at 2:01 pm

There are still a lot of older single family homes in the GTA just bordering Toronto in the very low $1M range. What appears to be bringing up the average are the newer build resales and the reconstructed McMansions. I don’t know what percentage of the inventory they are but probably quite a bit. They also cost a ton. My advice to the kid: buy one of these older dumps in Markham or Newmarket and then in 20 years rebuild. If you work from home, its an easy call. No granite or rainfall shower heads, but you get your dirt for now, and your investment for the future. Or rent.

#9 willworkforpickles on 02.17.22 at 2:04 pm

DELETED

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 2:07 pm

CPI calculation?
Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, those in farm households, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and MENTAL HOSPITALS.
———————————-
No sure why so many posters are complaining about inflation.
Many of you are not affected by it, it seems.

#11 Felix on 02.17.22 at 2:08 pm

The top part of this photo is very constructive and encouraging. Perhaps just crop that to leave out the bottom portion.

#12 Km on 02.17.22 at 2:09 pm

If you hate your job change it, best time ever in the last few decades, stop eating out so much and get an older car , less streaming and cell phone plans.We do eat out quite a bit and could have saved more but are ok with it as we price it in. Most of my friends are in crazy cc debt and own mostly crap. Our place is full of high end teak from going to thrift stores. We live on one and a half income and have high rent but are able to still put money away. We are now about to move so we can live in a more affordable area, is it like the loft we are leaving right by the beach? Hell no, it will however be a more stable environment for our kids. There is still options in life, sure we will rent forever but my parents owned and rented and they are no worse off then anyone else was in the end. Life can be good but as my mom always said but our choices affect that. It is your choice, I hated hearing her say that. Now as an adult I say the same to my kids, perhaps he needs to hear it as well as a reminder.

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 2:10 pm

#1 Summertime on 02.17.22 at 1:44 pm
The 5.1 % is actually higher than the 1980-es 12.5 %
if we use the same measure of inflation and not comparing apples to oranges. How mush were the rates in 1980-es, 18 %?

What should we expect now, 20 %? or 2 %?
——————-
Inflation becomes a real problem when it starts affecting the interest rates charged by banks.
Mortgages in the 80s were almost 20%.

#14 Diharv on 02.17.22 at 2:12 pm

Most Boomers and Gen Xers (me) worked long and hard for what they have, not living high on the hog and working their way up the property ladder. I would almost think that too much delayed gratification was practiced by these generations, always socking away for a rainy day. The grasshoppers of today want it all. Now.

#15 Cochrane on 02.17.22 at 2:12 pm

Common sense 1 Whiners 0
Absolutely appreciate your continued wisdom, patience and humor.
Thanks again.

#16 B on 02.17.22 at 2:17 pm

100 Garth.

#17 Left GTA on 02.17.22 at 2:17 pm

Awesome! This is exactly it! Young people today…. education grants as well if your parents don’t make much. I just read on reddit last night some guy complaining about credit card debt and student loan debt not being able to pay much on it because of high cost of living but he was financing a 2018 car… PRIORITIES KIDS!! Oh wait there was one even better some guy financed a more than $80,000 bmw over 7 yrs and now wants to sell it because he doesn’t need it. Upset because he owes more than it is worth LMAO. Put the iphone down get a dog and go for walks instead. A dog does not care what car you drive. Best antidepressant around.

#18 All lies and manipulated on 02.17.22 at 2:20 pm

Garth that was great advice!
while YVR was going nuts seems as always I headed the Van Isl. and sifted through all the commercial RE and found a huge piece for the price of a tear down in Van.
Owners had a couple deals fall through and needed cash for anther project. Its time, money hard work but now its worth closer to 8 figures.

#3 Stratovarious on 02.17.22 at 1:51 pm
============================
I hear that…..my step son, great boy but no clue. Doesn’t want to learn or listen to me. I’m an ass hole for pushing him.
While he was living in Van, with a great lady, on minimal salaries for 8 years.
concerts, dinning out video games ect.
Then he lost his job and I paid his rent and then paid to move him up the coast to where they would have a chance.
In the mean time a 29 years old has no chance of owning anything.
He had opportunities but while….
While my wealth grows at say a mill+ a year they can barely afford rent still.
It ain’t our fault….I warned…

#19 WTF on 02.17.22 at 2:21 pm

You would have preferred not to be asked? – Garth
—————————————————————–
Fair question.

Perhaps, in the interest of transparency, the line of questioning be formulated to also address the largest government expenditure which will impact every Canadian for decades. The Debt/deficit. It didn’t.

The “questionnaire” is a ham fisted prop to guide people to choose the lesser of several evils which fit the governments narrative. They can then claim consensus.

It is clear, fiscal discipline isn’t in the cards for this iteration of “leaders”

#20 XEQT and chill on 02.17.22 at 2:24 pm

#3 Stratovarious on 02.17.22 at 1:51 pm
Perhaps your best blog post EVER.

Time to confront the entitled generation with cold hard reality. Unfortunately, they likely don’t have any money because it all went to $10 coffees and new I-Phones. Perhaps you could remind “Josh” that a lot of “old farts” went without to build wealth. It is called priorities.

I am liking the more aggressive Garth.

——

I was hoping to buy an average home in Canada, but I accidentally spent $750K on coffees and avocado toast instead. Whoopsie!

#21 Drake on 02.17.22 at 2:26 pm

I would be more worried about NDP, Liberals Singh, Trudeau, Freeland taking your RRSP, TFSA, non-registered than inflation.

#22 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:27 pm

#157 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 8:18 am

Good work to the women’s hockey team! Even though it’s a bit painful personally since I have long-running $5 bets on any US-CAN sports matchups with all my Canadian amigos, it was worth it for the good game. Unfortunately, that $20 is gone forever with no chance to win it back on the men. Sigh.

Good game. The Canadians dominated start to finish IMO. Put the puck in the net four times with an offsides recalling the first goal. The shots on goal would tell another story with the US 2:1 over Canada. 6 on 4 with 1:30 to play was good TV.

Been out almost every night this week BTW. Great to get some normalcy back.

#23 Parksville Prankster on 02.17.22 at 2:29 pm

Garth, I’ll have to download and print a new picture of you. My wife kisses the previous one every morning, and she has worn the ink right off of it. Thanks for everything you do to try and help the unwashed masses like us.

#24 Guy in Calgary on 02.17.22 at 2:30 pm

I am a millenial and the first home my wife and I purchased was a disgusting, blue student house in St Catherines with a rental suite in basement for $197,500. The basement generated $900/month at the time and we pretended we had no rental and pocketed and saved/INVESTED all the money. This was 2013ish?

We sold a few years later, moved to YYC in 2016ish and bought a nice family detached for 500ish and found better paying jobs. Now at age 33, RRSP’s are maxed, TFSA’s are maxed, have 2 awesome young kids and a dog. We are also enjoying the outdoor lifestyle that YYC offers.

We made a conscious choice to leave the GTA and a conscious choice to buy a beater of a house years ago as we never intended to live in it forever.

We have stayed invested through all the crashes and rallies.

This victim mentality is a self fulfilling prophecy because it is so much easier then taking action or taking some risk. They probably have friends that feel the same way so they can all gather together and talk about how oppressed they are. Honestly, it is nauseating.

#25 "NUTS!" on 02.17.22 at 2:30 pm

Well, you couldn’t sum up what is wrong today any better than unpacking Josh’s worldview. Most of the real estate purchases in the last 10 years have been made by non-boomers. Hence, they are the ones who have driven prices to where they are. Most Boomers could never afford to purchase homes at today’s rates. True, they have amassed equity, thanks to the escalating prices brought on by new buyers.

I fear for this generation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmK0GWsXg2g

#26 jess on 02.17.22 at 2:37 pm

These “good” people seemed to be well known?
https://www.antihate.ca/

So let those “good” people do the “dirty work”and then the hypocrites — team up with Kenny, Moe, and the US foes claiming to be the victims of Joe.

https://www.splcenter.org/hate-map

================================

the Wall Street Journal dropped the bombshell that the Justice Department has been conducting raids on prominent short-sellers,…. the Justice Department “has seized hardware, trading records and private communications….” Reuters reported yesterday that the Justice Department’s probe is “part of a wide-ranging investigation into short-sellers and hedge funds focused on suspected coordinated manipulative trading, according to two people familiar with the matter.”

FBI Raids and Subpoenas Have Been Occurring on Wall …
https://wallstreetonparade.com › 2022/02 › fbi-raids-an…
4 hours ago — Reuters reported yesterday that the Justice Department’s probe is “part of a wide-ranging investigation into short-sellers and hedge funds

#27 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:37 pm

#180 WTF on 02.17.22 at 12:09 pm

My MP sent me (well, spammed me) a link to a questionnaire “Pre-Budget Consultations 2022”. Let ’em have it everyone.

“I was an MP. I asked. I tabulated all comments, presented them to ministerial colleagues and reported them to constituents. I hope you responded. Or you don’t matter. – Garth”

Does that mean you stop trying? – Garth

Last summer I worked for a party-neutral campaign publicity person (they work on issue promotion). Anyhow, they were very informed about election dynamics. From her I learned that these surveys also get used for campaigning and identifying constituents who may be on the fence. I don’t think letting the party you typically vote for know better who you are is a bad thing. If it helps modify the party platform, all the better. Postage is paid and surveys take 5 seconds to fill out…

#28 Tom Frisby on 02.17.22 at 2:39 pm

Well done, Garth. Let’s just hope for Josh’s sake that he is in the process of maturing and growing up. Some tough love will do him some good.

Otherwise, he will be old and bitter, instead of grabbing the proverbial horns on the bull and making something happen for himself and taking some pride of accomplishment in that.

Generational musing aside, this recipe has always worked: wake up each day, work hard, have some fun, budget, don’t live beyond your means and keep an eye on the future. Oh and don’t get sucked into FOMO too often, it usually is a mistake.

#29 Kirk on 02.17.22 at 2:40 pm

I regret not taking a 10 year mortgage back in April of 2021 on my re-finance. Rate was 2.5-2.8% (I can’ remember exactly).

But at least I locked in a Fiver at 1.69% they matured in 2026.

#30 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:41 pm

#143 Sail Away on 02.16.22 at 11:11 pm

I wish Chick-Fil-A was a public company. Ain’t nobody giving up that slice of heaven no matter the cost!

Well, it’s a known bastion of conservative Christians meaning myself and a good chunk of Americans will never buy their food. Thus the TAM isn’t as large as it could be. Maybe room for growth? Maybe a good reason to avoid?

#31 Andy on 02.17.22 at 2:45 pm

In 1980 my dad and mom immigrated to Canada, refugees from Vietnam after living in a refugee camp for a year. Barely knew how to speak English. Dad started as a janitor at McDonalds, learning English on the go, while Mom worked as a line cook, but never really got the hang of the language.

Eventually Dad found work out in the field, working in construction, long 3-week shifts away from the family and kids. We never had much growing up, no nights out or vacations, but we had what we needed.

In 1990 my parents bought our first house, the house that my mom still lives in to this day (Dad unfortunately passed recently). They bought it CASH. Debt was never something he wanted to have. Looking back, to see this man grind for like he did for our family… amazing.

His resistance towards debt and his commitment to savings was transmitted to me. Graduating from engineering in 2005, my path was a lot easier than my dad’s. We rented a 750 sq ft place for a fraction of our income, lived frugally, putting every extra penny saved into the markets. At the age of 29, my wife and I bought our house with cash, and had our RRSPs and TFSAs still at their limits to boot.

People might say what I did was an incredible accomplishment but compared to my dad, I’m doing life on easy mode. Thank God I was born a millennial in Canada, unlike my father.

#32 IHCTD9 on 02.17.22 at 2:45 pm

Late Mils and Gen Z’s have some great advantages:

A fully-fledged internet and global supply chain. Gen Z will never, ever, in a million years truly understand how easy they’ve got it with the www at their finger tips, and consumer goods being so insanely cheap. I still burst out laughing when I see todays price tags. They get credit if they can fog a mirror, and it’s oh so cheap. Student wages are up huge compared to the costs of goods (which have gone down).

Not a day goes by where I don’t see a ~30 year old cruise by in a 70K truck, pulling a 5K trailer, hauling a 15K ATV. This was utterly impossible to achieve for 99% of Gen X for a host of reasons.

Yes houses are very expensive, but they don’t have to be. The problem is there are a million excuses why the young guy/gal “can’t leave” the GTA/GVRD/Canada. So they’re really just sticking it to themselves. Now they’ve got even less options than prior to the pandemic.

#33 None on 02.17.22 at 2:46 pm

A concept that is difficult to grasp is that the quality of an investment decision is not based on his outcome.

Extreme leveraging in Residential real in large urban centres in Canada (minus AB) has carried substantial risk since 2010. If you did take on these risks you have been rewarded handsomely. Does that mean NOT investing in Res RE was a mistake? Not at all. Things could have very well gone very sideways (and the risk that they do increases every day).

Buying gamestop at $200 was a high risk move which was genius if you sold at $400. Not so smart if it was on the way down. Regardless, each trade is a high risk trade – the outcome of that high risk trade doesn’t change that fact.

#34 Dave on 02.17.22 at 2:48 pm

Inflation hasn’t been this high since 1991.

HAHAHAHA…inflation does NOT take into account real estate prices.

This is unique times…..$150,000 increase in a house in Vancouver in 1 month. Where in history has anything come close.

Now BoC is coming to the rescue..good grief. Watch how pathetic their rate increases will be. Then in 6 months….no more increases or maybe even a decrease due to Covid.

There should be a 30% to 40% correction but government will bring in Rich immigrants who are house horny

#35 X on 02.17.22 at 2:48 pm

Stop voting in parties that only have 1 solution to everything. More taxes. If you want to grow wealth, vote in the party that will be most likely to help you create that.

Gov’t needs to keep hands off on RE market, all they seem to do is juice it up more.

In regards to the house lust, patience Josh, patience. Prices are getting out of this world, no doubts valuations will return to earth, as rates return to historical norms.

#36 Man from UP on 02.17.22 at 2:49 pm

I rarely comment on anything, but I am indeed of the older generation. I get minimum wage, buy old cars, and don’t buy a new phone every 6 months. I can’t even afford an i product. I don’t care.

I do have investments from when I worked 2 jobs and saved. It’s going to stay invested. It’s the only way to beat inflation. Learn from the wise one: Garth. And stop complaining.

#37 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 02.17.22 at 2:49 pm

Hard being a victim and not realizing it. All I can say to “Josh” is that I came to Canada with nothing (the minimum 6 months of expenses) with basic English and I know a lot of people who had the same outlook as you and they are still there in the same boat scraping from month to month while others like myself are looking at early retirement.
How did we get there you may wonder ?
Simple, hard work and 2,3 jobs at a time ,a budget for expense control ,buying things second hand for well over a decade and no vacation for a decade.
Oh ,and started with a very small place as the first home and changed jobs for better opportunities, putting up with bad managers and executives on power trips focusing on what was important, the pay cheque.
Majority of people who actually have assets have a similar hard work story and expense control.
Opportunities always come to those who are prepared to take them.

#38 T-Man on 02.17.22 at 2:54 pm

Speaking of victims, the king of apologies just jumped the shark. Yur with us, or ur with the people who wave swastikas. What an petulant man-boy he is. Does Herr Schwab approve? After all, he’s got half the liberal cabinet in his back pocket. Ottawa police completely failed to stop a convoy they knew was coming. They’re victims too. Go suck an egg, Josh.

#39 T2 or bust on 02.17.22 at 2:59 pm

So interesting day today.

Started getting reports from folks who have had their assets frozen and claim no connection to the truck protests.

Asking if there is an appeal process.

The short answer seems to be “no”.

One guy says to me “the police, without knowing anything about me, have decided I am a convoy supporter. How do I appeal this? How do i show that i actually support the great reset, the new normal, that I am a big Trudeau fan and love his work?:

He was scared. Mortgage payment due along with all his other bills. 2 kids under 5. And they have no money now.

I am wondering if Trudeau thought this through before he made himself into Castro of the North?

He is basically finished now. There will be scars from this. I can’t see how he will ever win another election. Freeland is done too I think.

#40 Dave..Just Dave on 02.17.22 at 3:02 pm

When will younger people stop blaming the “older generation” for this crazy real estate bubble?

FACT: prices are determined by the BUYER not the seller. If I list my home for $1m and some dumbass offers me $1.3m, I am going to take that deal and laugh.

If on the other hand, the best offer I get is $900K then I either take the offer or take my home off the market.

It can not be repeated too often, the BUYER sets the price.

FOMO and financial illiteracy is the problem.

And for the record, you will not gain financial literacy in a 30 minute google search. Nor by gabbing with your equally illiterate friends for that matter.

Math is hard. Deal with it and LEARN.

#41 Linda on 02.17.22 at 3:03 pm

Kudos Garth for laying it on the line! It is such a waste of time & energy blaming others/circumstances for your woes. Far better to look around for opportunities & figure out how to get on with life. I’d add that the TFSA as well as the possible FHSA are golden opportunities for the under 40 crowd in particular. The old fogies can also benefit from the TFSA but time is money. They won’t have the decades of tax free growth the younger set will have should they seize the chance to build wealth.

#42 Millennial 1%er on 02.17.22 at 3:06 pm

I could tell you for sure this guy doesn’t work in tech. If you work in tech, you have 0 money problems.

#43 Millennial 1%er on 02.17.22 at 3:07 pm

I’m a younger millennial too. I’ve got quite a bit of disdain for people who complain. Like man, all you have to do is learn to code and you could be making 400k a year.

Just move to the states if you don’t like it, TN status is laughably easy to get

#44 Millennial Realist on 02.17.22 at 3:09 pm

Born on third base, convincing yourselves you hit a triple…..

Paleo boomers are so predictably cute.

And Josh is correct. We have to deal with epic income disparity and lack of opportunity unlike the easy path the boomers had, plus hugely inflated home prices unlike the 2-3X salary level that boomers enjoyed.

Millennials are now the dominant demographic in Canada. Boomers will be gone and/or irrelevant in a decade. We are getting ready for that.

Then we get to spend the rest of our lives trying to correct the economic and environmental calamity that earlier generations have imposed upon us.

Be part of the change, Boomers.

Or be run over by it.

(Or just take your whiny, financialized sense of entitlement and get the hell out of our way.)

#45 SunShowers on 02.17.22 at 3:10 pm

You think Trudeau and Freeland are lefties?

Wait until you see the people Josh and me are gonna vote in if things don’t change soon.

#46 Fortune500 on 02.17.22 at 3:12 pm

#7 Dave Ahem we are the exact same age and in similar situations ($500,000 invested, no DP, house paid). That is what we did. The math will say it is the wrong move, but in our case we appreciate the flexibility that not having the mortgage payment gives us. This is much more of a personal comfort, emotions question though than a straight personal finance one.

PS. Joshua I feel for you and agree with a lot of what you said. My dad paid off a house by his 40s, raised a family and we went on holidays and he only had a 2 year diploma. He worked for the local factory his whole life. I have tons of friends with Masters degrees, decades of work experience being underpaid who never had a chance to grab the rung of the insane Canadian property ladder (no family money, OSAP loans to pay). Garth gives good advice, but I would also remind readers that in 2008-2012 there were also a lot of warnings on this blog to be wary of the Canadian real estate market.

#47 Brett in Calgary on 02.17.22 at 3:14 pm

“But grow up, son. It’s about to get real.”

Yep — 2022 is going to open some eyes.

#48 Prince Polo on 02.17.22 at 3:15 pm

Mr. Falken (fake name), is apparently a Millennial with no real estate but a big chip on his shoulder.

Gives new meaning to the Millennial Falken from Star Wars…i much prefer the Han Solo version! For the record, I’m an urban loser-rentin’ Millennial.

#49 Søren Angst on 02.17.22 at 3:15 pm

I like it when you get all snarly and gnarly My Liege.

Because of that many of the Comments today were hilarious!

See what happens when you empower your coven and there’s a Mill to skewer:

Salem, 2022.

A great I TOLD YOU SO and you did. That you have over the years.

A hoot Blog read today, same for the Comments.

#50 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 3:16 pm

It’s possible that Josh doesn’t realize his options, just as a young pup doesn’t realize it can swim. So, time to toss you in, young J. Your problems are over. Just call me Godfather:

Enlist in the US military under their naturalization program, gain excellent experience and contacts while saving money with zero liabilities, then leverage your new dual citizenship to build a respectable life. Service is respected in the US. You may also grow a strong ‘non-whining’ backbone in the process.

https://www.uscis.gov/military/naturalization-through-military-service

#51 jimmy zhao on 02.17.22 at 3:18 pm

Squamish BC house prices are high. Not affordable.

#52 Shawn on 02.17.22 at 3:19 pm

Don asked if I would back up my arguments with facts and sources and plain language. Don quoted me then asked at 192 yesterday.

Shawn said “Write that up in an actual article and run the numbers you are talking about, provide some sources for your claimed facts, and then edit it a number of times for clarity and you might have something.”

**********
I take it you will do the same to back up your arguments as well?

*******************************
Yes. I am not going to repeat the link to my article. (look it up from I believe yesterday’s session if you care to) But my article was plainly written and understandable and was expressed more as opinion and why I had that opinion as opposed to just making a bunch of claims.

I don’t write nearly as well as Garth does but my stuff is quite readable.

What I attempted to do was understand the debits and credits of government bond issuance and central bank bond buying and looked at which transactions actually created bank deposits (i.e. money). I also looked at how commercial bank lending creates money.

Any further questions?

#53 ogdoad on 02.17.22 at 3:19 pm

hey Joshua, josh boy…take a break, man. Unplug and start reading some books. I’d recommend some but the world needs balance. Yin-yang, ritch-poor, duped and unduped, bosses and pions. Ask yourself why this happening instead of blaming…not the old dudes fault – They are just as duped as you are. Same emotions, same desires…part of the herd, except the wires are now petrified into place.

Hug more. That can help. My loooong, shapely arms are embracing you as I type.

Oh, and Garth – so what if you actually achieve the stereotypical Mills desires? realistic goal? It is in my mind. So is the Sucht for L-DOPA. Mmmm, not dead yet, my friends.

You said it almost right, but real is here…somebody’s going to have fun…

Og

#54 I don't know on 02.17.22 at 3:19 pm

An insightful post by our host tonight.

Indeed opportunities were, are, and will be everywhere for those who look, are ambitious and take advantage.

The frustration around housing is understandable, no one is denying that. But in this day and age, where an investment portfolio is easier to build than ever, there really is no need to feel left out and isolated. Wealth can be built a number of ways beyond just real estate.

IDK

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

#22 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:27 pm
#157 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 8:18 am

Good work to the women’s hockey team! Even though it’s a bit painful personally since I have long-running $5 bets on any US-CAN sports matchups with all my Canadian amigos, it was worth it for the good game. Unfortunately, that $20 is gone forever with no chance to win it back on the men. Sigh.

Good game. The Canadians dominated start to finish IMO. Put the puck in the net four times with an offsides recalling the first goal. The shots on goal would tell another story with the US 2:1 over Canada. 6 on 4 with 1:30 to play was good TV.

Been out almost every night this week BTW. Great to get some normalcy back.
——————-
Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
Women soccer is much closer to the real thing.

#56 alexinvestor on 02.17.22 at 3:24 pm

Inflation is good if you are young and have skills people want. That means that you can charge a lot more for your skills, and that your earning period is still fairly long.

Inflation is bad if you’re old, stuck on a fixed pension plan, and don’t have a pile of assets. Sure, B&D returned 30% in the past 2 years, but it could do nothing for the next 5 years, meanwhile inflation is eating away your assets and there’s not much you can do about it.

#57 Elon Fanboy on 02.17.22 at 3:26 pm

Reminds me of the Mike and the Mechanics song “The Living years”

‘ Every generation
Blames the one before
And all of their frustrations
Come beating on your door…’

#58 T-Man on 02.17.22 at 3:28 pm

These protests have accomplished 1 thing: We are ruled by cowards and idiots. I have to say then I mention names like Mrs Merkel, even Vladimir Putin and so on they have all been Young Global Leaders of the World Economic Forum. But what we are really proud of now with the young generation like Prime Minister Trudeau, President of Argentina and so on, is we penetrate the cabinets…It is true in Argentina and it is true in France now… Herr Claus Schwab

#59 Shawn on 02.17.22 at 3:32 pm

Energy Bills in Alberta remain a bargain

#71 DM in C on 02.16.22 at 5:10 pm
#17 Shawn:
“…just move to Alberta to participate in the boom. Here’s a nice selection of brand new houses at good prices:”

Yeah, don’t tell them that the cap on utilities was removed and everyone is seeing $200+ monthly price increases. We have a small bungalow and all in (electric/natgas/water) our utilities cost $733 this month.

That’s as much as our first house’s mortgage payment. at 8.5%.

*******************************
The complaint is about a $733 month utility bill in Alberta – higher than before. This for heat / hot water, water and electricity also the water bill would include the sewage drainage cost.

As I said yesterday, the Atlantic provinces have faced $1000 dollar utility bills for decades.

So happens the fuel oil truck came today to the house I am at in Nova Scotia. Second time here since Christmas so the interval must be seven weeks at the most and possibly more like four weeks. Not sure.

The bill: 494 liters of fuel oil at $1.30 = $687 Harmonized sales tax $95.50 (15% versus 5% in Alberta)

Then some kind of discount $64, net bill $669. Last bill also about $600 I am told.

This is just for heat and for a month to possibly 7 weeks.

Albertans have no idea how low their heating bills are compared to Atlantic provinces. Just no comparison. Electricity also higher in the Atlantic Provinces. Toronto I suspect also considerably higher than Alberta for natural gas but especially for electricity.

#AlbertaAdvantage.

The suggestion that people should not move to Alberta from Ontario because of high utility costs is understandable but completely off base. I’m not sure the comparison to B.C. where electricity is probably cheaper, not sure about natural gas.

#60 Faron on 02.17.22 at 3:33 pm

#26 jess on 02.17.22 at 2:37 pm

Wow, the details behind Jeremy MacKenzie are unsettling. This “freedom” convoy was a surfacing and legitimization of the far-right in Canada in their mingling with otherwise innocent people who are frustrated by COVID. Essentially using them as cover.

Fortunately, we don’t have a leader in power nationally who is giving tacit approval of these thugs as the US had under Trump. But, we do have such a leader in Alberta with Jason Kenney and the PPC is cuddly with these guys. I’ve always thought that Canadian politics was a couple of election cycles behind what was going on in the US. Unfortunately, this shows that Canada is catching up with the most hateful elements in the US fast.

The underground of far-right ex-military guys who are organizing with stolen military weapons (i.e. Here is probably as present here as it is in the US where it is rampant. This is a problem throughout Europe as well. I’m quite certain that this is a major reason Trudeau implemented the emergency act.

#61 Billy Buoy on 02.17.22 at 3:36 pm

I can’t help it regarding rate “hikes”.

Hiking INTO a recession? Noooooooooooo.

Except for once since the 1970’s when Paul Volker did it, rate hikes never crossed the 5 yr treasury yield. Today it stands at 1.843%…so from where we are 7 hikes IF they happen is it.

7 rate hikes constitutes a a roughly 7 fold (700% increase) from where they are now. There is no way this happens. Even when Volker hiked, rates were already at 5%, constituting a 250% increase by the time he was done.

A 700% increase in rates? Please..If anyone in the world believes they can do that, let us know. Ain’t gonna happen.

A 1% raise in rates adds 75 BILLION on the US DEBT.

The middle class is dead, finished.

Buy that house, protest, do what you want….enjoy the time you have left before the real nasty action starts.

#62 Faron on 02.17.22 at 3:37 pm

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm
#22 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:27 pm

“real hockey”.

the real thing.

What do you mean by the above? Looked pretty real to me. Ice, sticks, pucks, goals, penalties, tussles, very high level of athleticism. The whole 9 yards. Were you expecting Disney on Ice? UFC? Do tell.

#63 I don't know on 02.17.22 at 3:37 pm

#153 willworkforpickles on 02.17.22 at 7:36 am
#150 I don’t know

You really and truly don’t have a clue.

#9 willworkforpickles on 02.17.22 at 2:04 pm
DELETED

^And it looks like neither do you either.

Joking aside, as with all things in life, the truth lies in the middle between the extremes.

-Inflation will be high, but we won’t have hyper inflation like some predict. It also will come down from where it is now due to the reopening and lessening of restrictions.
-Rate hikes are coming, but the tightening cycle won’t be as harsh as predicted. Raising too harshly into a recovery is not a good policy.
-Stocks will correct, shrug, then resume their upward trajectory (like almost every other tightening cycle in the past)
-Some real estate will correct (condos, small towns), but some real estate will continue it’s upward trend (sfd in large urban areas).

We aren’t special. We aren’t living in some unique time. No one knows the future. The average person’s best bet is to stay invested, buy dirt when they can, and ignore the fear, noise, conspiracies, and other social media driven distortions of reality.

IDK

#64 Quintilian on 02.17.22 at 3:39 pm

Oh, the curmudgeons forgot to tells us that if we only stopped going to Starbucks for an Americano, we could afford a house.

#65 T-Man on 02.17.22 at 3:42 pm

Waiting in the wings, for when our hypocrite P.M. and Al Jolson admirer takes a long walk on a short pier, Crystia (Global Leader of Tomorrow class of 2000) I’m not a witch, Freeland. You can’t make this **** up.

#66 Wrk.dover on 02.17.22 at 3:42 pm

Plenty of Got-Miners here today!

I remember my nice apartment on 3rd St in New Toronto for about triple minimum wage/month, in 1976.

The park out back had a full view of the big T.O.

#67 Overheardyou on 02.17.22 at 3:43 pm

Could not agree more Hon. Mr. Turner.

Maybe we should split the Millennial group into the whiners and doers though, some of us work hard and play hard.

#68 Wrk.dover on 02.17.22 at 3:45 pm

Edit; one third of minimum wage, is what it cost.

#69 DON on 02.17.22 at 3:46 pm

#52 Shawn on 02.17.22 at 3:19 pm
Don asked if I would back up my arguments with facts and sources and plain language. Don quoted me then asked at 192 yesterday.

Shawn said “Write that up in an actual article and run the numbers you are talking about, provide some sources for your claimed facts, and then edit it a number of times for clarity and you might have something.”

**********
I take it you will do the same to back up your arguments as well?

*******************************
Yes. I am not going to repeat the link to my article. (look it up from I believe yesterday’s session if you care to) But my article was plainly written and understandable and was expressed more as opinion and why I had that opinion as opposed to just making a bunch of claims.

I don’t write nearly as well as Garth does but my stuff is quite readable.

What I attempted to do was understand the debits and credits of government bond issuance and central bank bond buying and looked at which transactions actually created bank deposits (i.e. money). I also looked at how commercial bank lending creates money.

Any further questions?

*************

Akward you are. I will read your piece…no further questions. Is it your vast education that makes you feel superior when asked a simple question?

I know lots of folks that have vast credentials that miss read the data and forget to watch the streets so to speak…again just a question.

#70 yvr_lurker on 02.17.22 at 3:48 pm

#46 Fortune 500
PS. Joshua I feel for you and agree with a lot of what you said. My dad paid off a house by his 40s, raised a family and we went on holidays and he only had a 2 year diploma. He worked for the local factory his whole life. I have tons of friends with Masters degrees, decades of work experience being underpaid who never had a chance to grab the rung of the insane Canadian property ladder (no family money, OSAP loans to pay). Garth gives good advice, but I would also remind readers that in 2008-2012 there were also a lot of warnings on this blog to be wary of the Canadian real estate market.

—————-

Very good post. I do agree that there is little point in complaining about one’s situation, and the idea is to find some way to navigate the financial landscape that exists. Perhaps this fellow lost his job during the lockdown and/or did not have access to the bank of Mom and Dad to float a loan to get onto the ladder when prices were low (condos during COVID, the hinterlands before COVID etc). No point in complaining, but it is perfectly clear to me that young people without family resources are increasingly out of luck in many parts of Canada now (not just urban areas…).

#71 OK, Doomer on 02.17.22 at 3:48 pm

I was an MP. I asked. I tabulated all comments, presented them to ministerial colleagues and reported them to constituents. I hope you responded. Or you don’t matter. – Garth

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t doubt that you took your job seriously. If the Liberals had MP’s like you we wouldn’t have the War Measures Act and the Trudeau in our bank accounts checking to see if we’re spending our money in ways that he approves.

Years ago, I made the mistake of telling Harvie Andre what I thought one time. He was quite shocked that an unwashed peon such as I had an unwelcome opinion. But I didn’t get my bank account shut down because of holding an unapproved opinion.

#72 Søren Angst on 02.17.22 at 3:50 pm

I may well jinx an entire continent with this Comment but here she goes…

IS IT ALMOST OVER?

I think so.

First time since the deep dark days of April 2020 here in Italia that I feel more than just hope.

Case Fatality Rates (CFR) are now close to those of the flu, about 0.1% (US as a reference since lungs are lungs no matter where they reside).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Europa CFRs today:
https://i.imgur.com/BLO3kma.png

And no they were not that low over the recent weeks to a month.
https://i.imgur.com/qkQre7t.png

There is an optimism in the air here in Europa, the Swiss have it.
https://www.20min.ch/story/weltweit-kehren-laender-zur-normalitaet-zurueck-658480319944

Of course you don’t throw caution into the wind BUT

wouldn’t THAT be something if it’s true…the pandemic is on the wane.

———————

Canada CFR today

0.75%

Not out of the woods yet Canada but getting there.

As for Europa, if it keeps up like this…Carnevale in Venezia for me next week is going to be extra special – going on Fat Thursday.
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1493143467945562114

And soon enough…
https://stream24.ilsole24ore.com/video/italia/spiagge-ecco-cosa-cambia-gare-canoni-proroga-concessioni-fine-2023/AE2fbREB

#73 Concerned Citizen on 02.17.22 at 3:50 pm

What you fail to mention, Garth, is that real rates weren’t -7% throughout the 70s and 80s. It’s just a little harder to generate wealth in a world where junk bonds pay considerably less than the rate of inflation, don’t you think?

This comment thread has all the usual suspects. From the , “If they just didn’t eat avocado toast they’d be able to afford that $4,000 mortgage for that neighbourhood slum”, to, “When I was younger I worked 30 hours a day in frozen north with only one leg, and things worked out for me!” Then there are the posts telling that professional couple that is emigrating due to the cost of living just how good their quality of life is here in Canada.

Let’s look at the facts:

– Housing is grossly out of step with incomes in many, if not most, parts of the country. Canada’s housing bubble is by far the worst of any major global economy.

– Not many decades ago, a single person could support a family and enjoy a comfortable middle class lifestyle on one income. Today, even dual income professional couples are priced out in many major centres.

That said, I agree that the victimhood mentality is toxic. That doesn’t mean the policymakers aren’t out to get you of course – after all, policy is not designed today to promote a healthy society that seeks upward mobility for all, but rather to hoover up more wealth for existing asset holders. This is why I encourage young people not to be part of this sick society. Try to find opportunities elsewhere in Canada away from the craziness – however sparse they may be, particularly if you’re a young professional that needs to be close to the major centres. Barring that, see opportunities abroad. Your government has shown that it views you as no more than a slave to the rent-seeking class, so why should you subject yourself this to this abuse and maintain any loyalty to the country?

#74 zxcvbnm on 02.17.22 at 3:52 pm

I’m going to respectfully side with Josh on this one. I’m not struggling by any means, but to imply that success for this generation is equivalently difficult as success for the previous generation just doesn’t jive with my experience, mannn. Your post is dismissive and unhelpful (unlike most of your advice).

#75 T-Man on 02.17.22 at 3:55 pm

#44- Millennial Realist: Let me guess, you and Josh are currently renting a mouldy basement from one of your mommies? But you can’t afford rent because playing video games don’t pay very well?

#76 Carl on 02.17.22 at 3:55 pm

My friend bought a modest size house for $75,000 out in the countryside in Ohio. He is going to put another $25,000 in improvements and paying all cash. It is only 20% of his net worth and is never going in debt.

#77 Doug t on 02.17.22 at 3:56 pm

YO Joshie – I was 36 with a family and living pretty much paycheck to paycheck- started a business at that point and now 58 and quite comfy – take a chance

#78 Not a Boomer on 02.17.22 at 3:57 pm

#44 M Realist

Now this is cute. Hate to break it to you, but the Boomers are not in your way. You are where you are of your own fruition. The only fault the Boomers hold (probably incudes your parents BTW) is giving this generation the most privileged upbringing in human history.

#79 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 3:59 pm

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
Women soccer is much closer to the real thing.

———

Well, they’re obviously not as good as men, but still ok to watch. Similar to women’s soccer. Remember the champion soccer team soundly trounced by 15yo boys?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/a-dallas-fc-under-15-boys-squad-beat-the-u-s-womens-national-team-in-a-scrimmage/amp/

Biology is actually a fairly important component regardless of any histrionics to the contrary.

#80 Søren Angst on 02.17.22 at 4:04 pm

Ukraine update.

UK’s turn to get a closer look at the borders.
https://i.imgur.com/A940sLe.png

Uncle Sam did it the other day.
https://imgur.com/2pGiGHb

UK & Uncle Sam have the right idea.
https://i.imgur.com/PSn75oH.png

Even the Russians are flying around the Ukraine.
https://imgur.com/uRuIiuF

#81 Alberta Ed on 02.17.22 at 4:07 pm

Gosh, I didn’t realize that after 40+ years of often toxic, stressful, burnout-creating work places, taking chances when new opportunities beckoned, saving for years to buy our first house, raising kids (not to mention dogs and cats), investing when we were able, we were just throwing younger generations under the bus. I feel just awful (not).

#82 RE_Investor on 02.17.22 at 4:08 pm

I like the progress in Toronto with the LRT and subways, as well as the updating of zoning by-laws. Toronto in 10 years will be amazing. Also so many bike lanes, paths, and parks to enjoy. And wow, the Don River outlet will be amazing. Toronto is and will be a world class city. I’m glad I live here and raised my family in a nice neighbourhood. Buy a house with land and this will ensure you help your family secure a piece of the rock! I’m sure you will figure out how to do this. Just don’t complain so much, because it really shows how defeatist you are to everyone around you.

#83 Gb on 02.17.22 at 4:13 pm

Ya….but it sort of depends on how old Joshua is right?

My daughter is 18…in university and I worry about her future.

I often have wondered if we haven’t been living in a sort of “ponzi scheme” world where our leadership (and elders….me included) haven’t in fact pilfered from the younger generation?

I do believe the under 25 crowd who are just getting started have some legitimacy to their gripes. There is no way an average house should be over 800,000$.

And exactly how would a just starting out 25 year old find employment (generally) in say…..Perth Andover these days?

Like I said, don’t know the details on joshanoymous….but if he’s 25 and under….I get it to a degree.

#84 Midnight’s on 02.17.22 at 4:15 pm

To Josh,
Whether You Think You Can, or Think You Can’t … You’re Right.
Henry Ford

#85 Faron on 02.17.22 at 4:22 pm

Elon Musk invokes Hitler (trigger warning = Hitler) then deletes it because he, apparently, has the self-control of a 9 year-old:

https://twitter.com/BradMunchen/status/1494305441291337731/photo/1

Nice to see the CEO of one of the largest market cap corporations in the world doing totally unhinged stuff.

Any word on the UN WFP receiving that $6B?

#86 Neo on 02.17.22 at 4:29 pm

Mr Potato Head.. Mr Potato Head..

The solution is simple. You need to though Falken’s Maze.

The password is Joshua.

Would you like to play a nice game of chess?

Or global thermo nuclear war?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dGZHmKLl8w

#87 Søren Angst on 02.17.22 at 4:33 pm

Yet another Mr. Market slaughter today.

https://imgur.com/I29gHcK

Ya, those are the top weighted Nasdaq 100 stocks.

Only green I saw was, you guessed it…

yeah oil

A lot of uncertainty about the Ukraine and Covid. After dumping the Nasdaq 100 ETF a couple of days ago (glad I did) I did not get hit with my ETFs.

Cheap. Liquid. Value. *

Good advice from My Liege et. al.

* plus my retiree mantra of high dividends paid monthly.

#88 Jontown on 02.17.22 at 4:33 pm

As the older, wiser person in the discussion, I’d expect you to take the high road here Garth. I really enjoy your advice but dunking on Josh and stoking inter-generational feuds is beneath a man of your stature.

As for the Boomers piling on in the comments, grow up. You’re in your 60s FFS. Don’t you have better things to do than trash some poor young fellow frustrated by the current economic challenges?

Mills (myself included) face an long list of very real uphill battles (starting careers in the GFC, then COVID, the RE mess) and I’m sure the Boomers had their fair share of challenges too.

A little compassion would go a long way here, instead look at this S-show of a post and the ensuing comments. Sad all around.

#89 sailedaway on 02.17.22 at 4:34 pm

To take it a notch down and keep it real:e despr

I know, from work, so many people in their late 50’s and 60’s that believe they ‘own’ real estate.

but what they really own is a pile of beaver barf with a heloc, and they are desperately trying to refi their debts using said pile of beaver barf.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 4:38 pm

#62 Faron on 02.17.22 at 3:37 pm
#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm
#22 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:27 pm

“real hockey”.

the real thing.

What do you mean by the above? Looked pretty real to me. Ice, sticks, pucks, goals, penalties, tussles, very high level of athleticism. The whole 9 yards. Were you expecting Disney on Ice? UFC? Do tell.
——————–
Did not expect anything. That’s why I did not watch any of the games.
No decent hockey fan will watch Women’s Olympic Hockey.
Booring, and predictable.
Vegas odds were probable 1000to1 on Canada winning.
Pittsburgh is playing the Leafs tonight.
Now, that is hockey.
Think I am anti women in team sports?
I think Sinclear Stevens, Burnaby born and bred, is/was an incredible soccer player. So are many Americans.
And Canadian and American soccer is immensely entertaining.
And there are other high level teams, mostly in Europe.
So there is some real competition in the big tournaments

#91 Barb on 02.17.22 at 4:38 pm

Joshanonymous needs to learn how to become proactive versus reactive.

Proactive lets you see opportunities for yourself and your family.
Reactive? you see only the caboose.

#92 Observer on 02.17.22 at 4:44 pm

#39 T2 or bust on 02.17.22 at 2:59 pm
So interesting day today.

Started getting reports from folks who have had their assets frozen and claim no connection to the truck protests.

^^^^^^^^^^^
Did they donate to the convoy?

#93 Nonplused on 02.17.22 at 4:51 pm

#7 Dave Ahem on 02.17.22 at 1:59 pm
If you could cash in your TFSA and non-registered accounts and pay off your mortgage, would you?

I have been thinking about this for a long time. I would still have about 200K in RRSP’s and a DB Pension with a bit in it but not much else. I’m 41. With the looming rise of inflation and a stock market that has reached record highs, does it make sense to lock in my portfolio returns by selling and paying off my mortgage so I have no exposure to potentially skyrocketing rates?

Opinions welcome.

———————————-

What skyrocketing rates? So far it is a lot of talk but no action. Forecasts. Now is not the time to pay off mortgage debt, but maybe lock in any variable rates. Pay off credit cards though, rates on those were always insane.

Inflation: 5% but probably higher in the real world
B&D portfolio: 6-7%
House prices: up around 20% just this year
Used car retention index: Up 40%
Interest rates: Unchanged. Talk of endless 0.25% hikes but nothing yet.

It is time to buy all the things. Except houses and used cars.

Buy or add to your B&D portfolio. Stock your pantry. Get your roof fixed. If you need a car buy new at MSRP, if you can find what you need that isn’t 8 months out for delivery.

#94 greyhound on 02.17.22 at 4:53 pm

Absolutely terrific thought-provoking conversation between Lacy Hunt and Michael Green —
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhzw4TTMrDs

Reminds me of 2005 when I though we should sell our US property and rent for a couple years. Now I’m again getting that same feeling…

#95 Pink Dictator on 02.17.22 at 4:54 pm

Watch out for those Canadian bank runs!

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bank-run-canadas-top-banks-mysteriously-go-offline

Probably just a DOS attack. But with things like this trucker thing you never know how something like this is going to turn out. Knowing where something begins doesn’t always tell you how it will end. And it will only escalate, as Trudeau has been escalating. After all, after calling the trucker movement a bunch of “Nazi-racist-terrorist-grandma killers”, he can’t very well negotiate now. He has painted himself into a corner where only escalation can occur from this point on.

The trucker movement isn’t really about the vax card to come into Canada. Truckers already can’t go to the states without being vaccinated so how could they come back? It’s about 2 years of government overreach that so far hasn’t proven itself to have done a damn thing. But that’s hard to communicate in a press-sized sound bite.

Anyway, don’t be using #HonkHonk! on social media or your accounts may be frozen. Trying to get that undone will be like trying to get off the no-fly list, even if you can prove your innocence. There is no mechanism for adjudication. The courts have been bypassed. Good luck.

#96 Lightman on 02.17.22 at 4:57 pm

Nice Wargames reference…

#97 Hasty is wasty on 02.17.22 at 4:59 pm

#7 Dave Ahem on 02.17.22 at 1:59

I’m 41. With the looming rise of inflation and a stock market that has reached record highs, does it make sense to lock in my portfolio returns by selling and paying off my mortgage so I have no exposure to potentially skyrocketing rates?

Opinions welcome

__________

Since you are asking, you must have a VRM.

I posted a detailed post about this yesterday.

Here is a quick synopsis.

Rather than making hasty decisions, hedge your bets.
If you feel you want to reduce your exposure, maximize your annual 15% down payment. This is huge because it is 15% of the amount of your mortgage. Additionally, you could double down on your payments.

Doing so for just a couple of years will reduce your balance significantly.

Keep in mind these increases are gradual, so you will still be in a relatively good position come 2024, even after numerous rate increases. After that, just do the math to figure which makes the best sense. Don’t let fear be your guide post!

And if your term comes up, you will have reduced the balance so much that the payments will be much smaller, though the portion going towards interest will have increased as a percentage.

#98 Shirl Clarts on 02.17.22 at 5:01 pm

Josh if you think society doesn’t care about you now, just wait till you get old.

Your youth is priceless. You have something Warren Buffett does not have – time.

You need to put down your TikTok for 5 seconds and play with a compound interest chart. Make it happen, Josh. No one cares if you do, or don’t. Garth told you this also, so maybe one person does care.

#99 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.22 at 5:05 pm

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
+++++++++++++++++++

The only thing missing was the NHL bone crushing body checks but it was entertaining and fun to watch our gals win a close one and a gold medal. Well done ladies, we are proud of you.

#100 TurnerNation on 02.17.22 at 5:06 pm

Y’all recall how in 2020 we were trained on Essential/Non Essential travel. And those armed inter-provincial checkpoints?
This is why. Sigh — just another day in WW3.
Papers please in the War Zone – the State of Emergency/reset is PERMANENT. The next lockdown is Electronic.

“Bell said Thursday there will be a secure area with over 100 checkpoints to make sure only those working and living in the downtown core will be allowed in, as well as those with a “lawful reason” to be in the area, such as for a medical appointment.”
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-secured-area-in-downtown-ottawa-1.5785593


— War on small business. Yes these movement restrictions will hurt them. This is “lockdown lite” – being tested in Ottawa.
Would you expect any less in a city with three sixes in its logo? https://tinyurl.com/39dee7mn

#101 Shawn on 02.17.22 at 5:07 pm

Don Burns me:

Akward you are. I will read your piece…no further questions. Is it your vast education that makes you feel superior when asked a simple question?

*************************
A good burn and I will admit I deserved it. No hard feelings I hope.

#102 XEQT and chill on 02.17.22 at 5:07 pm

Why do millennials complain so much?

Hmm. Well, at age 10 we watched 2000 people die on live television and then literally nothing ever got any better.

#103 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 02.17.22 at 5:10 pm

Ha, you think boomer is a pejorative now, just wait until the end of the year when markets manage to eek out new gains for the Garthians while all the fledgling millennial home buyers are underwater and the ones that did not buy still can not afford to.

#104 Don Guillermo on 02.17.22 at 5:12 pm

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm
#22 Faron on 02.17.22 at 2:27 pm
#157 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 8:18 am

Good work to the women’s hockey team! Even though it’s a bit painful personally since I have long-running $5 bets on any US-CAN sports matchups with all my Canadian amigos, it was worth it for the good game. Unfortunately, that $20 is gone forever with no chance to win it back on the men. Sigh.

Good game. The Canadians dominated start to finish IMO. Put the puck in the net four times with an offsides recalling the first goal. The shots on goal would tell another story with the US 2:1 over Canada. 6 on 4 with 1:30 to play was good TV.

Been out almost every night this week BTW. Great to get some normalcy back.
——————-
Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do
*************************
Well done PP. You’ve “obviously” been watching Flames hockey this year!

Well done PP.

#105 Drew on 02.17.22 at 5:15 pm

Josh is 100% being a drama queen. I’m an older mill (almost 40) too, and I’ve been building wealth by investing for a mere 6 years (I started late unfortunately), but I’ve been a saver my whole life.

I’m surrounded by people that whine about not having a house or being screwed over, but are constantly talking about what they bought or will buy. The same people that believe TFSAs and saving $6000/yr is something only rich people can do.

Becoming financially literate and saving takes discipline. Whining and buying junk is much easier. Or when in doubt blame “capitalism” or “late capitalism” whatever the hell that’s suppose to be.

#106 Barb on 02.17.22 at 5:17 pm

#74 zxcvbnm

“…to imply that success for this generation is equivalently difficult as success for the previous generation just doesn’t jive…”
—————————————

We boomers waited 45 years to finally “make it”.
Mills want it after one year.

Patience, grasshopper, patience.
Don’t just sit there and wait for it to fall out of the sky.
Do something that has value, and stick with it.

#107 PeterfromCalgary on 02.17.22 at 5:25 pm

Just a reminder you can buy a modest detached house in Calgary for about 400K. Their a lots of IT jobs here as well.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24020365/1608-2-street-nw-calgary-crescent-heights

#108 Gravy Train on 02.17.22 at 5:27 pm

Mr. Falken (fake name), is apparently a Millennial with no real estate but a big chip on his shoulder.

Joshua Falken refers to the 1983 American Cold War science fiction techno-thriller film WarGames.

I know. As stated, fake. – Garth

#109 fishman on 02.17.22 at 5:36 pm

Exactly! Thats why this duplitious old rich guy is putting his chips (not all) on the Convoy Cowboys. Loser woke snivelling wanna be commies are just that. Snivelling losers. Now populist losers of that age are a different matter. The former are relatively harmless while the latter can be “difficult” The former relying on state & regulations to allocate meager rations. The latter, feral. Not good in long lines all masked up. The former going for state sponsored authority. Holding on to their middle class with the desperation of a lifer bureaucrat. The latter, making “opportunity”alliances with shitrats & criminals as they grind their way up through the working class. Squirming, trying to worm their way back into the middle class. Fear? Which side do you fear the most? Those are the ones you wanna have as friends.

#110 mark on 02.17.22 at 5:41 pm

I wouldn’t discount this. I have a decent amount of liquid wealth, but no house and I’m increasingly feeling militant.
It’s the rewards for nothing and the smugness. I saved, and learned about Fama/French, the efficient horizon etc now remain globally diversified. Then you have to watch impulsive smooth brains get paid off after putting in a pittance, while guys like Adam Vaughn say they shouldn’t let the housing market drop 10% because those people might get hurt.
I’ve been wondering how long it is before someone disaffected confronts a central banker or housing minister.

#111 DON on 02.17.22 at 5:42 pm

#101 Shawn on 02.17.22 at 5:07 pm
Don Burns me:

Akward you are. I will read your piece…no further questions. Is it your vast education that makes you feel superior when asked a simple question?

*************************
A good burn and I will admit I deserved it. No hard feelings I hope.

*******
Nope, no hard feelings. We have to have thicker skin being part of this comments section.

I am just interested in the truth of the matter.

#112 Gravy Train on 02.17.22 at 5:43 pm

#114 Faron on 02.16.22 at 8:05 pm
Basic guide:

Faron, how did you manage to type out HTML tags without having them execute their commands? (Very impressive.)

#113 Wrk.dover on 02.17.22 at 5:49 pm

#99 XEQT and chill on 02.17.22 at 5:07 pm
Why do millennials complain so much?

Hmm. Well, at age 10 we watched 2000 people die on live television and then literally nothing ever got any better.
______________________________________

American Boomer boys were handed a draft card at 18, while 58,000 of their classmates perished in a tropical hell hole, because they weren’t a Bush or Cheney.

#114 Faron on 02.17.22 at 5:53 pm

Food for thought. The devil’s advocate if you will.

Inflation is cranking right now by any metric and, at current rates, the CB-set interest rates should be hundreds of basis points higher. High inflation is not good, higher inflation is worse. Charlie Munger recently pointed out that unchecked inflation becomes a societal problem. If this is true and seen as a large-scale societal issue, there will be political will to put a hard brake on inflation. Pretty sure we can all agree on that (except maybe projections that inflation will get much above the teens).

Okay, central banks are in a jam. Economies are still a little precarious coming out of COVID. Asset ownership in the form of housing and equities is all in bubble territory. There is a lot of consumer and public debt that will be sensitive to the higher rates needed to quell inflation using traditional means. Yet, inflation is screaming out for rising rates.

Now, here’s the contrarian take. A shock to the system through a real estate crash and an equity crash will utterly crush consumer spending at this point and that will bring the rate of inflation down fast. Central banks could achieve this through a big and unexpected rate rise, with a sharp sell of some of their balance sheet assets and messaging. Some sabre rattling or even a light war in Ukraine would add impetus to a correction. Motivation to do this could only come from seeing inflation getting out of hand and the benefits would have to outweigh the pain in the form of a recession, deflation and a burden on social safety nets.

This isn’t a prediction. But, as always, look around when a dominant narrative takes hold. That narrative is for ongoing high rates of inflation, a solid economic outlook and recovery from the virus and an overall soft landing.

#115 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 5:58 pm

#85 Faron on 02.17.22 at 4:22 pm

Elon Musk

Any word on the UN WFP receiving that $6B?

———

Why do you think Elon would give $6B to the UN?

I expect he donated to the organization he feels is most effective.

#116 JSquared on 02.17.22 at 6:08 pm

Why do millennials complain so much?

Hmm. Well, at age 10 we watched 2000 people die on live television and then literally nothing ever got any better.
>>>
I’m assuming you’re referring to 9/11. Newsflash…the entire world watched 2000 people die on live television. It was sh*tty. History is full of horrible events. Life isn’t fair or easy, but as soon as you accept that reality, life becomes a little easier. Lower your expectations and stop whining. Quit screaming into the void because no one is listening, or cares, because they’re busy taking care of their own lives.

The world doesn’t care about excuses.

#117 Observer on 02.17.22 at 6:09 pm

OPP, RCMP and OPS together got their $#!+ together!

Secure area established, highway access blocked, one organizer arrested.

#118 Faron on 02.17.22 at 6:11 pm

#112 Gravy Train on 02.17.22 at 5:43 pm
#114 Faron on 02.16.22 at 8:05 pm

Faron, how did you manage to type out HTML tags without having them execute their commands? (Very impressive.)

I googled “escaping html characters” thinking that something must exist. The result led me to the ASCII HTML codes. These allow one to display such characters by typing in:

& # XX ;

without spaces and with X replaced by numbers. Here’s a list:

https://ascii.cl/htmlcodes.htm

Now Garth will be four times more annoyed by all of us in steerage.

a test of some:

☢ ♿

#119 Faron on 02.17.22 at 6:15 pm

This one might come in handy

🤡

Back to work.

#120 Bezengy on 02.17.22 at 6:21 pm

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
+++++++++++++++++++

I watched the Flames beat the Blue Jackets Tuesday at the Saddledome. Nice to see the Flames in action up close. Can’t say I was that impressed however with some of the guys earning upwards of 7 million per/year, unlike the ladies who earn every penny. I’ve reffed a lot of women’s ice sports over the years, and make no mistake, these are very talented players. I’m proud of their accomplishment. You should be too.

#121 G on 02.17.22 at 6:23 pm

Thank you Garth for the free (priceless) finical advice that everyone can read here.
I’m sure it has/is/will help many, more than you know.

Your Greaterfool.ca is the one web site I suggest people need to look at, if they like Dog pics and sometime cat. And want to learn what they could do to have some money for retirement. We all will get old eventually.
Some say much quicker than you think, but it still will happen to us all, hopefully.
We will need a way to pay for stuff to live on then after all.

Unfortunately most high school don’t teach kids the knowledge you freely share, but they should use some financial example in at least math class. Instead of buying as much XYZ, instead put it into… and with compounded % growth over time, by age X it will be…

The high school kids I run into in retail jobs can take advantage the most to the marvels of compound growth over time after all. And everyone else might pick up a thing or two to help themselves and their families. Even if some “bitch” about it.
Some might simple not have a clue how to start saving/investing, or have not even thought about it at all yet.
People surely will absorb some information for their betterment, hopefully am sure.

Thanks you for still trying to help others freely with your whole team’s knowledge of investing.

#122 Bruce W. on 02.17.22 at 6:25 pm

Yippe ki yay Mr. Falken!

#123 K Shaped Recovery on 02.17.22 at 6:26 pm

There is a lot to be angry about.

Lots of time to change the narrative Josh – but it won’t be in Canada.

There is lots of opportunity all over the world, don’t let Canada get you down. Leave this declining second world country behind.

I believe in ya man! Everything you need to live the life you want already exists. Go get it! :)

#124 Faron on 02.17.22 at 6:27 pm

#115 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 5:58 pm
#85 Faron on 02.17.22 at 4:22 pm

Why do you think Elon would give $6B to the UN?

—-

Uh, I dunno, this (your own assembly of the facts and leap of logic) this and this:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/02/14/love/#comment-828714

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1454808104256737289?lang=en

https://twitter.com/WFPChief/status/1456041431051735040

Of course, real charitable giving looks like J.R. Shaw giving $35 million to a museum and for founding an art institute in Calgary. You know, a guy who loves his community. Love or hate Shaw, this is the least a mega-capitalist can do.

#125 Shawn on 02.17.22 at 6:27 pm

Don’t Have Anything Better to Do?

#88 Jontown on 02.17.22 at 4:33 pm

As for the Boomers piling on in the comments, grow up. You’re in your 60s FFS. Don’t you have better things to do than trash some poor young fellow frustrated by the current economic challenges?

******************************
No, clearly boomers and everyone else idling their time away on this blog don’t have anything better to do. It’s good clean entertainment. Especially on dark winter nights. Who can we gang up on next?

What fool will dare to tell us how tough life is while sitting warm and well-fed and well entertained?

#126 Howard on 02.17.22 at 6:28 pm

#3 Stratovarious on 02.17.22 at 1:51 pm
Perhaps your best blog post EVER.

Time to confront the entitled generation with cold hard reality. Unfortunately, they likely don’t have any money because it all went to $10 coffees and new I-Phones.

—————————————-

So true. Millennials should forego the avocado toast and instead devote half their salaries to a chain-smoking habit, just like the Boomers did. If I’ve calculated correctly, replacing avocado toast with chain smoking should magically make homes more affordable.

#127 Ed on 02.17.22 at 6:31 pm

So I didn’t get my bank account frozen today…most likely because I put Justin Trudeau as the name of donor.

#128 "NUTS!" on 02.17.22 at 6:40 pm

#102 XEQT and chill
“Why do millennials complain so much?

Hmm. Well, at age 10 we watched 2000 people die on live television and then literally nothing ever got any better.”

Oh my, yes now we see. The Boomers you’re slamming, yes well, they witnessed 1.3 mission die in a nonsensical war in Vietnam. The Boomers grew up listening to the stories their parents endured in one of the most costly wars in human history. But I can see why your situation is special, that’s becoming very clear the more you speak.

#129 Howard on 02.17.22 at 6:50 pm

You can’t choose your birth year, so there’s no use complaining about it. Boomers won the birth-year lottery, but it’s not their “fault”. Or I should say, they won the birth year lottery…so far. Their old age might be less luxurious given the combination of persistently negative real rates (a certainty given the $350 trillion in global debt) and fixed incomes.

What young people absolutely should be protesting is the government and central bank interventionist policies intended to transfer more wealth from the pockets of wage-earning young people to asset-owning old people. Unfortunately most people don’t even understand the terms fiscal and monetary policy, let alone their societal impact.

#130 Ivan the Moderate on 02.17.22 at 6:59 pm

Way to blame the victims.

#131 Nonplused on 02.17.22 at 7:00 pm

#12 Km on 02.17.22 at 2:09 pm
If you hate your job change it, best time ever in the last few decades, stop eating out so much and get an older car , less streaming and cell phone plans.

———————————-

Lots of people still on the older car bandwagon, and I have to admit I have been for all my life, until recently.

Fact is with what has happened to used car prices, the economics of buying new have never been better, assuming you can buy at MSRP and find what you are looking for. Get a new Corolla and you can sell it in 2-4 years for barely less than you paid for it. That is, assuming the used car retention index doesn’t crater as fast as it rose, which I don’t think it will because I believe it will take years to clear out the pent-up demand whilst simultaneously keeping up with current demand. Eventually they will, but not tomorrow.

The economics of all things has been turned on its head. Some things still make sense, like the B&D, but some things are upside down in a once in a lifetime kind of way. Heck even gold is heading for all time highs, which is a sign of inflation, not higher rates. I expect that to change when rates do finally start to rise enough to curtail inflation. But that is the wild card. How long and how many 0.25% increases before inflation comes down? House prices have to come off first, as they are pumping up the HELOC’s again as well as providing windfalls to anyone who does sell. A 0.25% rate increase or even several of them is not going to deter a 20%/y market. Several 2% increases might.

(And yes, I am talking my book. I have a new driver in the house, and he’s getting the old car. By old I mean 2006. But it is still in good shape and runs good. Regular maintenance helps. But that means I need a new one. I looked for a 2-4 year old car. And I looked and I looked. Plenty available, but hardly cheaper than a new one, warrantee mostly gone, and 70,000-100,000 km on the odo. Weird times they are, where it makes more sense to buy new, if you can find what you are looking for and pay MSRP.)

#132 Bezengy on 02.17.22 at 7:01 pm

Great advice from Garth as usual. Priorities must be established and sacrifices must be made. But clearly, we do have a housing crisis in this country, and we all will pay a price for it. One by one I see young folks packing it up and heading south or elsewhere looking not so much for better employment opportunities, but for cheaper housing. If this country is going to remain competitive we can’t be paying everyone $200k plus just so they can put a roof over their heads, and eat, and own a car to get to work. Do the math. Say some single dude makes $60k per year, $15 k comes off the paycheck for deductions and another $24k ($2k per month) for rent leaves $21k, or $57.00 per day. Perhaps we should all try living on $57 per day so we can try to relate to dudes like Mr. Falken. $60k is a pretty good salary too, in my books anyway.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 7:02 pm

@#113 Wrk.dvr
“American Boomer boys were handed a draft card at 18, while 58,000 of their classmates perished in a tropical hell hole, because they weren’t a Bush or Cheney.”

+++

Yep.
I worked with a guy who’s brother died in Vietnam 2 weeks before his 20th birthday and 1 month before he was supposed to fly home.
It wasn’t Call of Duty video over there.

#134 Howard on 02.17.22 at 7:02 pm

Latest Nanos tracking poll from February 11th shows the Liberals and Conservatives still tied, at 31% apiece.

Would be funny if we come out of this historic freedom convoy event and it has absolutely no impact on any party’s support.

#135 Ray Skunk on 02.17.22 at 7:16 pm

Was going to write a message asking Garth to go easy on Josh.

But then I realized Josh likely joined his cohort in voting T2 in. So screw him. You reap what you sow.

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 7:17 pm

I cant make any ¢ of why I cant lose £

#137 pPrasseur on 02.17.22 at 7:22 pm

The real victims is and will be the working class.

People like those who prepare and bring your food to you doorstep.

They are pissed (with reason) now, but just wait…

#138 Nonplused on 02.17.22 at 7:29 pm

#137 pPrasseur on 02.17.22 at 7:22 pm
The real victims is and will be the working class.

People like those who prepare and bring your food to you doorstep.

They are pissed (with reason) now, but just wait…

————————————

Maybe try tipping???

#139 I can relate on 02.17.22 at 7:32 pm

#31 Andy,,

Beautiful story my friend.
Matches my heritage too, different country but the same ethic of my parents. They were successful and so will you.

#140 Reality Check on 02.17.22 at 7:32 pm

Millennial Realist
Then we get to spend the rest of our lives trying to correct the economic and environmental calamity that earlier generations have imposed upon us.
——————————

Trust me, you Millennials will come up with your own calamities future generations will have to unravel.

Like maybe the absurd housing prices Millennials have created by their collective housing-lust or the “wokism” that is cancelling freedom of expression.

#141 Faron on 02.17.22 at 7:38 pm

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 7:17 pm

👍

Can’t say I haven’t done anything for ya fartzy.

(I’ve unleashed a monster[s]. 🤮)

#142 Ottawan on 02.17.22 at 7:46 pm

Don’t wish for it, work for it.

#143 Quintilian on 02.17.22 at 7:52 pm

The elders don’t realize that big part of their “success” translation= (The equity in their home for the most part) is the result of a kleptomaniacal political cadre and a central banker’s trick.

Naturally as with all trickery the illusion comes to an end.
The CB can no longer indirectly reduce mortgage rates by 2000 BPS

The accumulated debt used to pad the GDP has to be paid back, which will act a drag on the economy.

Boomers note:

Your gain has been predicated on hidden inflation, and negative interest rates; an unsustainable combo.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#144 Mr Canada on 02.17.22 at 7:59 pm

Josh needs to transition from an entitlement mindset to a mindset of accountability.

#145 cuke and tomato picker on 02.17.22 at 8:01 pm

Just got off the phone with my daughter who is 38 her and her husband paid off their custom built house 4 days before she turned 34. They both have good jobs university degrees hard working with leadership ability.
They have travelled frequently before covid and plan to
retire at 55 with a place in Hawaii. She feels those younger than her complain about money but never do an overtime shift.

#146 Sail Away on 02.17.22 at 8:03 pm

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 7:17 pm

I cant make any ¢ of why I cant lose £

——–

It might be the secs?

#147 DON on 02.17.22 at 8:12 pm

At these prices it is hard for those starting out to save for a down payment with house prices in the nose bleed area.

But there is no sense complaining, rather look for opportunity elsewhere especially at a young age. Take the chances and move…enjoy life experiences before life gets more complicated/complacent.

@Faron

With the debt levels some households are carrying inflation doesn’t have to increase much more to sting. The context will change as conditions change, tossing recency bias out the window. Gas just went up 14 cents in one day.

#148 Phylis on 02.17.22 at 8:21 pm

Shoot.
Here is my 2¢s.

#149 willworkforpickles on 02.17.22 at 8:25 pm

#153 willworkforpickles on 02.17.22 at 7:36 am
“#150 I don’t know

You really and truly don’t have a clue.

#9 willworkforpickles on 02.17.22 at 2:04 pm
DELETED

^And it looks like neither do you either.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………..

Normally I would ignore this but my two deleted comments had nothing to do with you in any way.
Now in fact, the last 3 deletes I’ve gotten have all been on the same topic …covid related…
Now I’m not anti vax…I’ve been dosed twice and i have rarely posted on the topic here at any rate, but am done with ever posting anything related to it here ever again.

With regard to you Mr. don’t know…my assessment of you stands. You really don’t know what you are talking about at the best of times. Now you have every right to say your piece right or wrong, no response will you get from me, That is…until you begin directing misinformed (as usual) comments at me and I’m compelled to respond.
I do endless hours of research on the very subjects you appear to know little to nothing about.
And that’s okay. You can doubt what i say all you like.

Just that there’s a limit to how far i will go attempting to set you straight before i have to respond to you …
“you really don’t know”.

#150 DON on 02.17.22 at 8:26 pm

Couldn’t Mr. Focker (sp) be using a VPN…pinging outta Germany.

#151 Wrk.dover on 02.17.22 at 8:27 pm

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 7:02 pm
Yep.
I worked with a guy who’s brother died in Vietnam 2 weeks before his 20th birthday and 1 month before he was supposed to fly home.
It wasn’t Call of Duty video over there.
______________________________________

I built Beach Condos in SW Fla with all fresh off the boat veterans in the winter of 73/4. They were there for the climate, as was I.

These guys weren’t your average milk and cookie Bieber kiddies like me at that time, anymore.

#152 Flop... on 02.17.22 at 8:33 pm

I saw a young guy crossing the street near where I live with a Booster Juice in one hand, and a cigarette in the other.

Couldn’t figure out if he was on a health kick, or slowly trying to kill himself…

M47BC

#153 Ballingsford on 02.17.22 at 8:49 pm

#23 Parksville Prankster on 02.17.22 at 2:29 pm
Garth, I’ll have to download and print a new picture of you. My wife kisses the previous one every morning, and she has worn the ink right off of it. Thanks for everything you do to try and help the unwashed masses like us.

******

When you get the new picture, tape it to the mirror on the ceiling over the bed. She won’t be able to reach it to kiss every morning.

#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 8:56 pm

99 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.22 at 5:05 pm
#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
+++++++++++++++++++

The only thing missing was the NHL bone crushing body checks but it was entertaining and fun to watch our gals win a close one and a gold medal. Well done ladies, we are proud of you.
———————-
Obviously,
Do you watch any NHL games?
The bone crushing and fights are long in the past.
Speed, skill, pin point passing ,smarts is the name of the
modern hockey game.
The ladies just are not there yet.
Without competitive rivals, like the men had from Russia in the seventies and eighties, they never will get better.

#155 kommykim on 02.17.22 at 8:57 pm

RE: #20 XEQT and chill on 02.17.22 at 2:24 pm
I was hoping to buy an average home in Canada, but I accidentally spent $750K on coffees and avocado toast instead. Whoopsie!

=======================================

First time buyers only need a 5% down payment… So you’d need to have saved $37,500 to buy the $750K house. If you’d just skipped your daily $10 coffee and avocado toast for 10 years you’d have had your down payment by now. But you didn’t and now you whine.
If your squeeze had done the same, it would have been an even shorter time period.

#156 Garth's Son Drake on 02.17.22 at 9:03 pm

Are you kidding? Squamish BC is not affordable. 1.5 for an old beat down house there. Nowhere in BC is affordable anymore.

Woodstock is affordable though.

BC employers no longer required to allow employees to work from home.

Back to the office in the un-affordable neighbourhoods we go.

Good ol’ commute with used cars costing 45% more and fuel going to the moon.

Does it get any better than this? Blessed.

#157 The Reality is... on 02.17.22 at 9:10 pm

Generation X are the real winners. They are killing it like no other generation in history.

2009 opened the greatest RE buying opportunity of the last 30 years. And Gen X was perfectly primed to nail it, which many did and are not sitting quietly like Boomers.

And Gen X are receiving their big inheritance on top of all of this.

Gen X is living large and retiring in 40’s with nice house paid for.

Boomer didn’t do that until age 55.

Some millenials slipped in on this, but that generation and lower are screwed. Lost generations.

Life is good for some. The younger generation might want to consider JT’s comments about making housing more affordable. He lied to you on that #1 election issue and is moving forward on pumping the RE market harder than ever before. You watch.

I vote with my investment decisions.

#158 Faron on 02.17.22 at 9:12 pm

#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 8:56 pm

Without competitive rivals…they never will get better.

The men’s competition and skill that arose came from the NHL, not USA/CAN v. CCCP at the Olympic level.

You do realize that, by not viewing, you are influencing the status of their sport in such a way that they will never get said opportunities to improve. 👁👁👁 = 💵💵💵 .

And you are criticizing a game your didn’t even watch!

#159 Re-Cowtown on 02.17.22 at 9:19 pm

Millions of dollars of damage and destruction by protestors of the Coastal Link LNG pipeline. Will Trudeau use the War Measures Act to protect pipeline workers from injury and protect critical infrastructure?

Of course not, it’s only the energy industry and he wants the oil industry killed for politicval ideological reasons.

Carry on burning and destroying pipleines. And your financial pipeline from the US is protected by the PM.

This is what the protests are about; a nod and a wink to protestors the PM agrees with, criminal charges for those he doesn’t.

#160 KLNR on 02.17.22 at 9:20 pm

@#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 8:56 pm
99 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.22 at 5:05 pm
#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
+++++++++++++++++++

The only thing missing was the NHL bone crushing body checks but it was entertaining and fun to watch our gals win a close one and a gold medal. Well done ladies, we are proud of you.
———————-
Obviously,
Do you watch any NHL games?
The bone crushing and fights are long in the past.
Speed, skill, pin point passing ,smarts is the name of the
modern hockey game.

until the playoffs arrive.
then its back to slow, plodding, grinding fourth liner style hockey :(

#161 Reality is stark on 02.17.22 at 9:21 pm

No one rides for free Josh.
Today’s market is toxic. It’s cheaper to rent than to buy.
They don’t make them today like they used to, today’s product will fall apart by the time it reaches 50.
Enjoy the freedom that comes from renting. As the abode ages it becomes much more difficult to manage. If you finally must settle down wait until you are 50 and get one no more than 30 years old.
Stay disciplined, keep an arm’s length attitude as you will feel a lot of peer pressure to sign up. It’s nothing but a death wish right now.
Your time will come later, you will thank me, and you’ll be shocked at how much choice you’ll have with a load of invested cash in your pocket.

#162 Nonplused on 02.17.22 at 9:22 pm

I can’t believe anybody is actually watching the Olympics.

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 9:22 pm

@#143 Quinty’s Quantum Leap

” the result of a kleptomaniacal political cadre and a central banker’s trick.”
++++

Cadre?
My god.
How did you manage to leaf through Mao’s Little Red Book while simultaneously clutching it near to your heart OR did you just finish listening to a Venezuelan dictators rousing, hours long speech to the starving?

#164 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 9:27 pm

114 Faron on 02.17.22 at 5:53 pm
Food for thought. The devil’s advocate if you will.

Inflation is cranking right now by any metric and, at current rates, the CB-set interest rates should be hundreds of basis points higher. High inflation is not good, higher inflation is worse. Charlie Munger recently pointed out that unchecked inflation becomes a societal problem. If this is true and seen as a large-scale societal issue, there will be political will to put a hard brake on inflation. Pretty sure we can all agree on that (except maybe projections that inflation will get much above the teens).

Okay, central banks are in a jam. Economies are still a little precarious coming out of COVID. Asset ownership in the form of housing and equities is all in bubble territory. There is a lot of consumer and public debt that will be sensitive to the higher rates needed to quell inflation using traditional means. Yet, inflation is screaming out for rising rates.

Now, here’s the contrarian take. A shock to the system through a real estate crash and an equity crash will utterly crush consumer spending at this point and that will bring the rate of inflation down fast. Central banks could achieve this through a big and unexpected rate rise, with a sharp sell of some of their balance sheet assets and messaging. Some sabre rattling or even a light war in Ukraine would add impetus to a correction. Motivation to do this could only come from seeing inflation getting out of hand and the benefits would have to outweigh the pain in the form of a recession, deflation and a burden on social safety nets.

This isn’t a prediction. But, as always, look around when a dominant narrative takes hold. That narrative is for ongoing high rates of inflation, a solid economic outlook and recovery from the virus and an overall soft landing.
————————
Faron who are you?
You started out as a weather man.
Then you became a financial/stock expert.
And lately, a ladies hockey commentator.

#165 Tom from Mississauga on 02.17.22 at 9:33 pm

Garth is back!

#166 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 9:34 pm

#160 KLNR on 02.17.22 at 9:20 pm
@#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 8:56 pm
99 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.22 at 5:05 pm
#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
+++++++++++++++++++

The only thing missing was the NHL bone crushing body checks but it was entertaining and fun to watch our gals win a close one and a gold medal. Well done ladies, we are proud of you.
———————-
Obviously,
Do you watch any NHL games?
The bone crushing and fights are long in the past.
Speed, skill, pin point passing ,smarts is the name of the
modern hockey game.

until the playoffs arrive.
then its back to slow, plodding, grinding fourth liner style hockey :(
———————
I agree with you.
At the playoffs, grit usually prevails.
That’s why teams usually bulk up before the playoffs.
Still a beautiful game of speed, skill, smarts and incredible skating.
And this comes from a guy who comes from a soccer background.

#167 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 9:41 pm

#158 Faron on 02.17.22 at 9:12 pm
#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 8:56 pm

Without competitive rivals…they never will get better.

The men’s competition and skill that arose came from the NHL, not USA/CAN v. CCCP at the Olympic level.

You do realize that, by not viewing, you are influencing the status of their sport in such a way that they will never get said opportunities to improve. = .

And you are criticizing a game your didn’t even watch!
————————
Buddy,
Stop right there.
This is way above your pay grade.
Just ask Gretzky’s father who introduced and taught Russian skill and passing hockey to The Great One.
Stick with your stock analysis and your rivalry with Sailo.

#168 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.22 at 9:43 pm

#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 8:56 pm
99 Yukon Elvis on 02.17.22 at 5:05 pm
#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 3:23 pm

Obviously, you guys don’t watch a lot of “real hockey”.
As I do.
Total unwatchable joke.
+++++++++++++++++++

The only thing missing was the NHL bone crushing body checks but it was entertaining and fun to watch our gals win a close one and a gold medal. Well done ladies, we are proud of you.
———————-
Obviously,
Do you watch any NHL games?
The bone crushing and fights are long in the past.
Speed, skill, pin point passing ,smarts is the name of the
modern hockey game.
The ladies just are not there yet.
Without competitive rivals, like the men had from Russia in the seventies and eighties, they never will get better.
++++++++++++++
Hahaha. You are the one who is not watching.

https://youtu.be/lpgYS4Cdpjc

#169 Doug t on 02.17.22 at 9:47 pm

#145 cuke and tomato

Ah god buddy do you and the family live in a snowglobe- your posts sound like Hallmark movies

#170 DON on 02.17.22 at 9:55 pm

#134 Howard on 02.17.22 at 7:02 pm
Latest Nanos tracking poll from February 11th shows the Liberals and Conservatives still tied, at 31% apiece.

Would be funny if we come out of this historic freedom convoy event and it has absolutely no impact on any party’s support.

*************

The ‘hacked’ donation file also pointed to Mr. Siebel and other conservative christian folks.

No wonder Homeland Security was monitoring the situation a month ago. Do they have hackers? Even Biden offered advice and services to deal with the matter.

If this is a religous/far right proud boy conservative/ Trumpian movement then the Conservatives suffer and Carney enters the fray….if former Central Bankers are still seen in good light after stalling to act on consumer price increases. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see Federal NDP win…under a more charismatic leader.

Time will tell.

As for Trudeau, there is a line in the sand with the use of those emergency powers. Once the blockades are cleared the emergency should be declared over. Trudeau failed twice to get a majority back, he’s done unless a war comes along.

The talk of war is all around…how did World War 1 start again…oh yah a giant pissing match that got out of control. Most fights start that way.

#171 Quintilian on 02.17.22 at 9:55 pm

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 9:22 pm
“Cadre?
My god.
How did you manage to leaf through Mao’s Little Red Book”

Not at all I draw my material from the activities of your BC Christy Clark, and at the Fed scene Poloz et al.

#172 Concerned Citizen on 02.17.22 at 9:58 pm

Yes, it’s clearly a millenial demand problem. If only these greedy millenials weren’t so selfish as to want a roof over their head, and would simply raise their families in tents down by the river like the boomers used to do. And what about the immigrants – who gave them the idea that they had a right to shelter in Canada?

Next thing you know, millenials will start demanding food and clothing, too! Those lazy, greedy millenials… how much lower can these degenerates possibly stoop?

In reality, demand is very much the problem – demand from “Mom and Pop”, corporate, and foreign speculators – all feasting on -7% real rates enabled by the central bankers. You take that away, and a big part of the problem goes away. But we can’t do that, because if the boomers can’t keep their 50% windfall gains then western society as we know it collapses. Far better to screw a few generations out of a reasonable chance to own a home and build wealth. Heck, we can just tell them it’s because they’re lazy and eat too much avocado toast.

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 10:00 pm

@#162 minus
“I can’t believe anybody is actually watching the Olympics.”

++++

Yep.
Between ANOTHER “non russian” Russian failing a dope test.
And the rousing, blood pumping, hand biting excitement of gold medal curling…

The Olympic officials conveniently ignore the fact that China has 1,000,000 people in internment camps, Hong Kong’s democratic process has been kicked in the teeth, dissenters arrested and Newspapers closed…..because…..
The Lords of the Rings only care about advertising revenue and the billions of $$$$$ China has bought them with.

“Rhymes with Doors” might properly describe what the olympic games organizers that have sold themselves to become.

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 10:04 pm

#162 Nonplused on 02.17.22 at 9:22 pm
I can’t believe anybody is actually watching the Olympics.
————————
Why?

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 10:04 pm

Garth.
Any comment to The Economist stating that for the past 70 years, every time govts try and slow down inflation with interest rate hikes….. a recession is inevitable?

#176 D Apostrophe on 02.17.22 at 10:15 pm

How real? Russia operating in Canada real. They LOVE to gum up the borders. Did you ever wonder what Radicalization looks like if it happened in your country? You don’t have to wonder anymore. Market is gonna realize this VERY soon.

#177 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 10:24 pm

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 10:04 pm
Garth.
Any comment to The Economist stating that for the past 70 years, every time govts try and slow down inflation with interest rate hikes….. a recession is inevitable?
————————-
Link?
You expect Garth to read every issue and articles of The Economist”?

#178 Brandon Love on 02.17.22 at 10:35 pm

Mic drop.

#179 Observer on 02.17.22 at 10:36 pm

“Zexi Li, the 21-year-old Centretown resident who is the lead plaintiff in a class-action suit against the “Freedom Convoy,” says that one of the protestors backed his pickup truck onto a sidewalk in an attempt to hit or frighten her Thursday morning.”

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/class-action-complainant-alleges-trucker-threatened-her-by-backing-pickup-onto-sidewalk

#180 Faron on 02.17.22 at 10:43 pm

#164 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 9:27 pm
114 Faron on 02.17.22 at 5:53 pm
Faron who are you?

You forgot professional emoji applications trainer.

I don’t need to know much about hockey to know that having a well-paying professional league in any sport will always draw in more talent and make for better competition. If you think women’s hockey sucks and don’t watch it, that doesn’t help the problem.

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 10:00 pm
@#162 minus
“I can’t believe anybody is actually watching the Olympics.”
++++
Yep.
Between ANOTHER “non russian” Russian failing a dope test.


I’ve been enjoying the Olympics, but been having a hard time getting excited about anything where the Russkies are competitive and the event athletic. Watched some XC skiing and when the Russians pulled away from the Norwegians by an insane amount, it seemed like a done deal that more than just training was at play.

The sport I care most about, non XC skiing, has less of a problem apparently.

The downhill run alone cost $500 million to construct.

#181 FatiguedBuyer on 02.17.22 at 10:47 pm

Big fan Garth, and thank you for the free advice. But I gotta say, this response was a little insensitive. The comments section is also full of tone deaf responses that further fuel the divide between generations, and the haves and have-nots.

The “just move” argument to real estate prices is incredibly frustrating because it’s never that easy. It is bad out there for the younger folks. Comparing it to how it was in the 80s is a deflection. We should be moving the needle forward toward a better quality of life with each generation.

Calm down. The response was measured and merely pointed out concrete opportunities the blog has underscored in the past few years. People can act on these things, or complain and dump on me for my birth year. Their choice. – Garth

#182 DON on 02.17.22 at 10:50 pm

#171 Quintilian on 02.17.22 at 9:55 pm
#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 9:22 pm
“Cadre?
My god.
How did you manage to leaf through Mao’s Little Red Book”

Not at all I draw my material from the activities of your BC Christy Clark, and at the Fed scene Poloz et al.

********
You mean the Wicket Witch of the West?

#183 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 11:10 pm


#180 Faron

I’ve been enjoying the Olympics, but been having a hard time getting excited about anything where the Russkies are competitive and the event athletic. Watched some XC skiing and when the Russians pulled away from the Norwegians by an insane amount, it seemed like a done deal that more than just training was at play.
—————
I always thought that the scientist in you would make you more willing to see both sides of an argument.
But obviously, you’re just another American red -baiter like Sailo.
Talking about doping:
The Russians have nothing on the Americans, Lance Armstrong, the King of Doppers, who single handidly destroyed professional cycling, and many baseball players come to mind.

#184 Mike Rotch on 02.17.22 at 11:12 pm

A long time ago, I ( mid-late X) entered the workforce with a graduate level education in a demand field, and got my entry level gig making what a lot of people thought was good money….. And, by the time I settled rent on a modest pad, car payment + car insurance on a modest ride, I had about 1/3 of my take-home to cover groceries, telecoms, gas, clothing and entertainment.

Life’s rough, get an effing helmet

#185 NoName on 02.17.22 at 11:15 pm

At sally farts

Virtual/preteng weight loss cap is 1.4bill per year, i can just imagine cap of real one… Lots of pounds to loose and sents to make.

https://blog.marketresearch.com/virtual-weight-loss-market-grows-to-1.4-billion

#186 Mike on 02.17.22 at 11:22 pm

Could not have said it any better Garth!! Well done!

#187 DON on 02.17.22 at 11:28 pm

#177 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 10:24 pm
#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 10:04 pm
Garth.
Any comment to The Economist stating that for the past 70 years, every time govts try and slow down inflation with interest rate hikes….. a recession is inevitable?
————————-
Link?
You expect Garth to read every issue and articles of The Economist”?

********

I’ve read a recession comes about 18 – 24 months after raising rates in an effort to tame inflation. Then, I read this happens some/most of the time. The Economust was the latest to enter the fray.

Ponzie…google is your royal friend.

#188 Airfix on 02.17.22 at 11:30 pm

#145 cuke and tomato picker on 02.17.22 at 8:01 pm

Might be time to do some critical thinking and ask yourself how they were able to do that by 34?
How’s your other over achieving spawn?
Enjoying the Tesla?
Just joking, don’t care.
A lot of us have children we are proud of, no need to tell us your stories.

#189 Faron on 02.17.22 at 11:33 pm

#183 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 11:10 pm

just another American red -baiter

Dipping into the rosé tonight I see.

We aren’t talking about Lance Armstrong. And, last I checked, pro cycling is still a thing and is still wildly popular.

I would think Sail Away quite likes Mr. Putin, if I had to guess. Seems to be into strongman nationalist types.

Do you really think the WDA had Russia banned from competing as a nation for political reasons?

#190 Robert Ash on 02.17.22 at 11:39 pm

Very hard to compare a Young person’s outlook to a Boomer’s life experience and opportunities. Most Boomers started their careers, with a World population of between 3-4 Billion inhabitants. Today almost twice as many folks, inhabiting the planet, and competing for resources, opportunities, and a better life. Boomers lived with minor number of immigrants. 1970 there were 147K people, and more wide open spaces, and less red tape, so those are places Josh can start to research some previous trends, and it will make him happy. I would like to see his face when he learns, many Adults, only had a Black and White CRT.

#191 Privileged Millennial on 02.18.22 at 12:16 am

I count myself fortunate. And an example of someone who was able to be a “make it millennial” I was born in 1987, parents financially literate I was determined not to be. After high school worked a few years then became and RN. Borrowed and lived with my partner with roommates in Mississauga where I was born and raised. We drove one old beater and only borrowed for school.
We moved to Kelowna in 2017. Big box stores and Mountain Biking! What’s not to like? We rented a basement apartment. After the move my fiancée found a good trade job and went to school for a year. We drove the old car and rode our bikes while saving for a house. A house was important to us despite Garth’s sage advice.
In 2019 we bought detached house with rental suite in a downturn market and continued to live in our rental. We rented it out and have just moved in. During that time we have been able to add some balance by saving more in our TFSA’s and RRSP’s. My Golden DB pension plan was not able to be transferred to the BC plan from ON. So It was transferred to a LIRA and RRSP filled with Garth approved 60/40 mix of ETF’s. This is where the luck happened. The transfer took about 5 weeks and funds were withdrawn in late Feb 2020. They were then deposited in Late March 2020 so missed the crash and have seen great gains. Once in a lifetime I’m sure. The house is also now worth 30% more. I say all this to show that it was possible, but we had each other for support and worked hard and didn’t live too fancy. We know that a house means sacrifice but have tried to eschew lifestyle creep and the pressure to buy more real estate or Upsize. Instead we work, play outdoors, plan to travel and adopt a baby. For my peers in other situations I say be bold. Get married, put some money away and move!

#192 Tedfiftyfour on 02.18.22 at 12:36 am

If you can’t afford 18% interest rates
Sell don’t buy, if you find yourself underwater because prices fall 35% and you can’t sell or afford the payment then walk fold or go bankrupt. If you find yourself in a new City in U Hall 3 kids and $200 to your name then it’s time to start again. Get up early fight like hell every day
and in the end you will be debt free owning your house
no car payments and independently wealthy. If all you do is bitch and complain about it then you are truly lost and that’s on you.

#193 mousey on 02.18.22 at 12:57 am

Mr. Falken (fake name),
My parents came to Canada as refugees in 1958. They rented a one bedroom apartment for 13 years before they could by a crappy house on a busy commuter street. Two of our cats got run over while we lived there. We lived in Vancouver, and by the time I was out of university and hoping to buy a place, circa 1990, prices were insane. My hubby and I bought a tiny apartment and a few years later we bought a grungy little house on a super small lot in a quasi crappy area. The bathtub was the size of a small roasting pan. No granite. I’m not sure what your expectations are – my point is that it has been hard to get into the market for 30 plus years. The only people we knew that were buying actual decent houses had received loans/gifts/inheritances and so plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.

#194 Dr V on 02.18.22 at 1:28 am

183 Ponz

“…Lance Armstrong, the King of Doppers, who single handidly destroyed professional cycling….”

Actually no, he wasn’t really the king, as so many in the sport doped.

What he did, or maybe more so the media did, was sell the fairy tale of the cancer comeback, in a real Hollywood kinda way. The naive bought it completely.

How he did negatively affect cycling though was over concentration on its premier event – the tour de France.
He and the USPS assembled the most capable single mindset team for that sole purpose. He and the team dominated so completely the other teams were intimidated.

Speaking of intimidation, he also ruined other peoples lives and careers whenever he felt his kingdom under threat.

Now the Olympics. It’s just the socioeconomic political globalization of sport.

#195 Daryl Poblando on 02.18.22 at 3:09 am

“It’s about to get real”? We’re under Martial Law. Our bank accounts are being confiscated . Our freedoms are gone. Our free speech is gone. Our government is a propaganda monster colluding with commercial dictatorships that attack our children if their social media is non conforming. Our official opposition is blocked from exposing the dictatorships foreign support.

Specifically Garth. Housing is now free if you’re black or de facto a vote bloc designed to undermine voting. What is “about to get real”?

#196 Joshua Falken on 02.18.22 at 4:12 am

Wow, thanks for the honor, Garth! Seems I must have hit a nerve. A little disappointed by the pseudo-doxing attempt. Great Reset conspiracy theorists and anti-vax nuts are allowed to roam the comment section freely and in complete anonymity. But when one highlights certain uncomfortable economic truths, one is fair game. Noted – I will take my scandalous fake name and am out of here.

Figures. – Garth

#197 Søren Angst on 02.18.22 at 4:58 am

:-? is equivalent to

#198 Søren Angst on 02.18.22 at 5:00 am

used to convey emotions in your writing. They are a great way to brighten up posts.

yes they do

#199 Søren Angst on 02.18.22 at 5:06 am

😜
I will display 😜
I will display 😜

#200 Joe Lalonde on 02.18.22 at 5:36 am

Trudeau’s EXEMPTIONS LIST of individuals that cops can’t touch is truly revealing.
In what reality would this document ever be put up into law?

Where Cops can’t touch or harass individuals as they have an exemption from the law.

https://t.co/pP2iDKz9wE

Is it a wonder that Ottawa, Canada is a shit show where the law enforcement hands are tied.

No wonder they can’t find a Police Commissioner to enforce this.

It’s truly a joke!

I hope you don’t get robbed or harass by an Exempt person.
The cops can’t do anything about it.

#201 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 7:08 am

@#181 Fatigued deaf and blind buyer
“The “just move” argument to real estate prices is incredibly frustrating because it’s never that easy. It is bad out there for the younger folks. Comparing it to how it was in the 80s is a deflection.”

++++

Just wait until the recession hits…

#202 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 7:19 am

@#177 Pedantic Ponzie poo poo’s predictions.
“You expect Garth to read every issue and articles of The Economist”?”

+++++

I do.
Excellent magazine to inform you of the political, economic, and general goings on all over the world.
The “Letters to the editor” are somewhat amusing when a foreign leader rips into the editors for a previous weeks article.

But you never really deal in facts do you Pedantic Prussian Ponzie?
Just endless naysaying about everything everyone has an opinion about.

Ok.
Issue Feb 5 to 11. How High Will Interest Rates Go?
Page 11.
Last paragraph on the page ( just so you don’t have to tire your lips reading all those other big words )

There are few examples of central banks taming inflation without the economy suffering a recession. The last time America’s inflation fell from over 5% without a downturn was over 70 years ago. Fighting inflation could put the world in a slump. If so, the prospect that rates will one day fall back again would only be some consolation.

#203 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 7:45 am

@#171 Quinty’s Questionable Quotes
“Not at all I draw my material from the activities of your BC Christy Clark….”

+++

Once again the Maoists live in the past.
Newsflash Quinty.
Ms Clarke was replaced 4 years ago by the NDP.
But not to worry.
I always expect the current crop of slogan shouting intelligentsia coming out of University to tow the politically correct line.
Its easier that way.

Year Zero in the Pol Pot calendar of new socialist ideas never ceases to disappoint.
The corrupting waste of taxpayer money continued unabated after the Liberals were deservedly booted.

The particularly egregious expenditures included
The Site C Dam; 5 billion spent as Preem Queen Christy was booted.. the NDP could have stopped the grossly over budget, unwanted, seismically unstable, vanity legacy to Christy’s stupidity, then…..
But the NDP Preem Horgy Porgy swallowed hard and kept those 1000’s of union jobs going.

Now? Its $11 billion and still not finished, and they keep finding reasons to spend more billions, because its not built on solid rock. Its in a seismically unstable area. The fracking all around it causes miniquakes.

But look on the bright side comrade….
Land is cheap below the dam.
You could buy some and work from home in the NDP nirvana of the Peace River Valley…. just have an escape plan.

#204 Steve-0 on 02.18.22 at 7:49 am

Hi Garth,

Back in fall of 2020 when you were talking about mortage inerest rates starting to go up, I decided to renew my mortage early even though the savings on the existing mortage would be a about a wash with the penality. Because of that, i am now sitting with a 5 year fixed (with 4 years left) at 1.5% interest rate, while inflation is >5%. This will save me thousands of dollars on my existing term. Not a bad return on free advice.

I probably would not have done this without your advice. Plus all the financial advice valuable too, but I can’t give you full credit for that one because I use many difference sources.

Thank you for all that you do. FYI, if the comment section gets to cumbersome for you, shut it down, it doesn’t really add that much value other than leaving the odd thank you that might make it to you.

#205 THE DANDADA on 02.18.22 at 8:01 am

“Over the next 100 years the currency is going to zero” ….Charlie Munger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOvmwQ84MWg

#206 Howard on 02.18.22 at 8:03 am

#162 Nonplused on 02.17.22 at 9:22 pm
I can’t believe anybody is actually watching the Olympics.

—————————————-

Didn’t even know it started until Day 3 or 4.

Me not having a television and avoiding legacy media partly explains that, but I do get the sense that nobody cares. Have not heard a single friend or coworker say a word about it.

#207 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.18.22 at 8:05 am

#202 CEF
I had a company paid subscription to The Economist for over 25 years.
Just like any News magazine they have a bias.
They are mostly directed towards British Expats.
But, alas the Brits are now longer ruling the seas.
And let’s not talk about facts.
These are well articulated opinions.
No one can predict the future.
Not even you.

#208 chalkie on 02.18.22 at 8:21 am

Mr. Falken, all Mommie’s does not necessary always do the right things, they nature their kids to long and to soft, Grow up and let go of Mommies Apron strings Mr. Falken and venture out into the world and face it head on. I lived the days, when a full size Chocolte bar was a nickel and Gas was 38 cents a gallon ( 4.54 Litres ) as I sported around the big smoke in my beatle car, on my full $1.10 an hour job.
But I was able to turn my job into a career and today, I have no Problem of paying $3.00 for the same Chocolate bar and $5.50 a gallon gasoline because My mommie pushed me out the door and said, you are ready to face the world, go get um.
Your Mommie right now Mr. Falken, should step forward and give you a little push, Do the math, your opportunities are endless Joshua, get rid of the frown and smile to the world and be thankful.

#209 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.18.22 at 8:21 am

194 Dr V on 02.18.22 at 1:28 am
183 Ponz

“…Lance Armstrong, the King of Doppers, who single handidly destroyed professional cycling….”

Actually no, he wasn’t really the king, as so many in the sport doped.

What he did, or maybe more so the media did, was sell the fairy tale of the cancer comeback, in a real Hollywood kinda way. The naive bought it completely.

How he did negatively affect cycling though was over concentration on its premier event – the tour de France.
He and the USPS assembled the most capable single mindset team for that sole purpose. He and the team dominated so completely the other teams were intimidated.

Speaking of intimidation, he also ruined other peoples lives and careers whenever he felt his kingdom under threat.

Now the Olympics. It’s just the socioeconomic political globalization of sport.
—————————-
Yeah,
The Tour the France was one of my favourite sports event to watch.
Rolling through the beautiful French countryside with the old villages. And the French Alps.
And then finishing on the Champs Élysées.
A great spectacle.
He completely ruined it for me.
No rider could be trusted anymore after him

#210 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.18.22 at 8:33 am

#187 DON on 02.17.22 at 11:28 pm
#177 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.17.22 at 10:24 pm
#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.17.22 at 10:04 pm
Garth.
Any comment to The Economist stating that for the past 70 years, every time govts try and slow down inflation with interest rate hikes….. a recession is inevitable?
————————-
Link?
You expect Garth to read every issue and articles of The Economist”?

********

I’ve read a recession comes about 18 – 24 months after raising rates in an effort to tame inflation. Then, I read this happens some/most of the time. The Economust was the latest to enter the fray.

Ponzie…google is your royal friend.
—————————-
Oops.
You raise interests and that slows down the economy!
That’s pretty basic EC0 101.
Don’t need to google that.

#211 Shawn on 02.18.22 at 8:40 am

The “We Myth”

#195 Daryl Poblando on 02.18.22 at 3:09 am
“It’s about to get real”? We’re under Martial Law. Our bank accounts are being confiscated . Our freedoms are gone. Our free speech is gone. Our government is a propaganda monster colluding with commercial dictatorships that attack our children if their social media is non conforming. Our official opposition is blocked from exposing the dictatorships foreign support.

*************************
Sorry, I’m not part of your “we” or “our”. This is a common thing to believe you represent the majority. You speak for yourself and no one else. As do I.

I’m fine with clearing out these illegal protestors by the means proposed. They have been warned in advance.

There comes a time in battle when retreat is a wise survival strategy.

#212 NoName on 02.18.22 at 8:58 am

Sicling

IMHO Pedro Delgado is to bicycle what was Alan Prost to F1, Best.

And interesting read about British people on bicycles.

https://jamesclear.com/marginal-gains

#213 Rosco on 02.18.22 at 9:08 am

With respect to the War/ Emergency Measures Act, Robert Stanfield profusely regretted voting with Pierre during the FLQ crisis as many innocent French Canadians got jailed with no recourse.
Jagmeat Singh is in a similar position.
World War |
World War ||
Trudeau |
Trudeau ||

#214 Dharma Bum on 02.18.22 at 9:18 am

Ever notice that losers hate capitalism?

Funny thing is, they’d be losers under any system.

Just the way it is.

#215 Flop… on 02.18.22 at 9:34 am

This chick was awarded 22k after her landlord stiffed her.

Now she can afford to rent a Shaughnessy mansion for one month…

M47BC

“A year’s free rent awarded to Port Coquitlam tenant after landlord chose not to move into apartment

Tenant owed more than $22,000 after the purchaser of the apartment she was living in changed their mind about moving in and rented it out to someone else.

Finding an apartment to rent is hard enough, but being unfairly evicted is a matter for dispute resolution with the Residential Tenancy Branch.
That’s exactly what one Port Coquitlam woman did after getting tossed out of her apartment because a new owner wanted to move in.

Now, she’s been awarded more than $22,000 — one year’s worth of rent at the rate she was paying — after the landlord decided they didn’t want to move in and ultimately gave the apartment to someone else.

While it’s not unusual for purchasers to ask tenants to leave so they can live in an apartment, they can’t simply leave the place vacant and re-rent it at a higher price a few weeks later.

According to the Residential Tenancy Act, the new landlord has to live in the unit themselves for at least six months.”

#216 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 9:35 am

Once again a reminder to send the ruling govt a message….

https://www.letstalkbudget2022.ca/let-s-talk-budget-2022/survey_tools/questionnaire1

I skipped all the politically correct, non binary, non racial answers they offer you to choose from and went directly to “other” so I could voice my opinion.

I highly recommend people “voice their opinion” to the govt.

Please pass this on to all like minded friends, coworkers, etc.
:)

#217 Senator Bluto on 02.18.22 at 9:35 am

The Great Account Freeze has begun. I never thought I’d live to see the day when the Canadian Government would turn on it’s own people to cover up its own incompetence and mistakes of it’s own creation.

A CBC commenter last night said that the War Measures Act would never have been invoked if the protests were in any city other than Ottawa. I agree.

But really, what’s the harm in throwing a few people in jail and destroying their financial lives to make sure that Ottawa is cleared out before the Family Day long weekend?

Trudeau needs the photo op of him and his family skating on the Rideau Canal on Family Day. Who cares how many lives get torn apart for that?

Sad, sad day for Canada.

#218 Dharma Bum on 02.18.22 at 9:36 am

#50 Sail Away

Enlist in the US military under their naturalization program, gain excellent experience and contacts while saving money with zero liabilities, then leverage your new dual citizenship to build a respectable life.
———————————————————————————————————-

I am applying today!

Do you think they’ll be excited about recruiting a guy in his sixties? I bet they will be! After all, experience counts!

Can’t wait to be a citizen of the U.S.A.

I’ll be able to get my Trader Joe’s fix regularly.

I can then also wear my MAGA hat, for real.

I love Tucker Carlson. The only media icon that calls out Justin Trudeau for the pathetic pseudo-leader he is.

#219 Re-Cowtown on 02.18.22 at 9:39 am

Just a quick question Garth. If/when the feds start asking for the names of all the people who post comments critical of the government on your website will you throw us all under the bus or will you tell them to pound sand?

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 9:48 am

@#207 Pretentious Posing Ponzie
” I had a company paid subscription to The Economist for over 25 years.”

+++

And it languished in the reception room, on a coffee table , unread….. because “you didn’t have time to read it”.

Typical.

As far as “bias”.

I disagree.
I like it because it has a British/European world view to counter the onslaught of American and Canadian media sensationalist ” cat stuck in tree” pap.

ALL the articles are untitled which causes the reader to focus on the story at hand , not the ” famous” author of the story.

THE Economist printed a full page retraction a few years back that must have cost them millions.
They had obviously slandered a Saudi Prince and were threatened with a massive, punitive lawsuit.
Hence, a full page, groveling retraction that apologized, admitted they were wrong and promised they would never, ever, EVER do it again.
Quite amusing for a world ranked, respected, weekly magazine.
I guess billionaires CAN get even when wronged unlike the rest of us plebes.

I noticed that Canada’s MacLeans magazine has copied their no nonsense format in the past few years and their subscription rate has climbed again.

Stick with what works.
Hard hitting, factual, objective news.

Sorry you couldnt be bothered to expand that narrow wooden block you call a mind Ponzie.
Go for another 10km walk.

#221 Diamond Dog on 02.18.22 at 9:50 am

#202 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 7:19 am

Just shy of 10%. We will likely see inflation peak in the low 9’s (potentially a bit lower depending on the Fed) but this is if and only if the Fed gets off it’s behind and starts doing its job with aggressive hikes.

Inflation goes back to Trump & Fed policy in 2021 with the massive increase to the money supply, a whopping 29% first year of pandemic m2 increase in the money supply by the Fed. The annual average post 2000 is 7%.

When we see this kind of pop in the money supply, high inflation is sure to follow. When we look at the timeline of all this newly printed money, it falls under Trump. Trump is without a doubt in my mind, the most inflationary president since crooked Nixon. Needless to say, they are both cut from the same cloth. Someone, anyone want to disagree with me on this? Good. Have at ‘er, can’t wait to shred it.

How dangerous is inflation or should I say high inflation? There’s a money manager out of San Diego (although his accent is undeniably NY) that has caught my eye over the last couple months. Talked to another manager who put him on my radar in March of last year when he had 15k followers on Youtube. I wished my memory would have served me better back then. He is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lchphqIHcQ

The Maverick of Wall Street. Readers looking for gems should take him in because he’s consistently good. Note what our uncle has to say about our elder Charlie Munger specifically.

“You can argue inflation is the way democracy’s die. When democracies have died in Latin America, inflation is a big part of it. When you’ve got a populace that votes it’s self money and you over do it, it hurts civilization.” – Charlie Munger

Couple this with Friedman who lays it plain when there is a rapid increase in the money supply. I’m ad libbing here, “It’s a party. Everyone has more money so they spend more. This increases productivity and demand and at first, everyone is making money and markets soar and real estate soars… until inflation hits and business costs rise and as inflation soars higher, incomes drop lower as a result of higher costs of labor costs and costs of materials and everything else, recession hits and the hangover begins. But in the early days, you don’t see the effects of inflation, you only see boom times.”

Can inflation end democracies if left unchecked? So the theory goes, it starts with a populace backlash morphing to civil unrest that evolves into revolution which devolves into civil war. How does inflation create civil unrest? Try poverty.

For example, 16% of the population or 20% of adults are seniors. Of this 20%, 8% rely solely on government pensions. U.S. inflation is running at 7.5% but CPI has rents pegged at 3% which makes up 30% of CPI. Rents have increased by 20% in some cities and 15+ in quite a few meaning true inflation is easily in double digits. Let’s say it’s a mere 12% average over 2 years, perfectly normal expectations at this point (if the Fed acts of course). Purchasing power of 8% of the population is down by 24%. Does anyone think a government faced with austerity due to higher rates on it’s bonds will give pensions a bump?

2 years go by and maybe 8% of the population is skipping the odd meal. 3 years go by and a good chunk of them are trying to make it on cat food. Add a bit of currency devaluation and purchase power further declines, maybe spinning the economy into depression.

I’m not saying it will be as dramatic as this, but it could be. It could be if the Fed doesn’t act and raise rates to lower inflation by sucking money out of the supply and change business/consumer behavior and if the dollar weakens significantly for lack of international confidence, God help us all.

I’ll close this by reminding readers, inflation is the fault of the Trump presidency. His administration appointed the governors that chose, pitched and modeled rapid expansion of the money to the 7 governors for a vote. His administration benefited from the initial wealth effect created by it. And now the Biden administration is the one left holding the bag and being blamed for it. Whatever you hear or read, the numbers that fall in the timelines don’t lie:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

#222 Benjamin on 02.18.22 at 9:54 am

Josh is correct though. Real estate has siphoned off record amounts of wealth into a bottomless pit of non-productivity. There will be a retirement crisis in Canada because of this horrible misallocation of resources. The nation’s economy is a total disaster. It is sad to see what the country has become.

#223 Diamond Dog on 02.18.22 at 9:55 am

A quick message for fake Falken.

A sure sign of maturity is when someone owns their mistakes, takes their lumps and in stoic fashion, moves on. Until you learn to do that much, go piss with the pups.

#224 Big Car Dealer on 02.18.22 at 10:02 am

Dear Garth,

You are going to have to keep the Kia for longer, your Porsche order is delayed. Don’t fret though, the Kia is going up in value.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/02/17/ship-carrying-1100-porsches-and-other-luxury-cars-is-burning-and-adrift/

#225 In disbelief on 02.18.22 at 10:05 am

Bullcrap Garth, Mr Falken is right on all counts. People like him are permanently screwed and have been for a long time. Your solutions, missed “opportunities” and consolations are a joke on so many levels, I’d need hours to take them apart.

Give your entitled and privileged head a shake. The greed, ridicule and dismissal is shameful. Simply unbelievable to read how truly disconnected you are. My unearned wealth has exploded the last 2 years and I’d be happy to give it all back and then some, to give the future a fighting chance. That’s what separates true empathy from narcissism.

I await your usual non sequitur and ad hominem reply.

#226 Sail Away on 02.18.22 at 10:11 am

#218 Dharma Bum on 02.18.22 at 9:36 am
#50 Sail Away

Enlist in the US military under their naturalization program, gain excellent experience and contacts while saving money with zero liabilities, then leverage your new dual citizenship to build a respectable life.

———–

I am applying today!

Do you think they’ll be excited about recruiting a guy in his sixties? I bet they will be! After all, experience counts!

Can’t wait to be a citizen of the U.S.A.

I’ll be able to get my Trader Joe’s fix regularly.

I can then also wear my MAGA hat, for real.

I love Tucker Carlson. The only media icon that calls out Justin Trudeau for the pathetic pseudo-leader he is.

———-

Good luck.

We had one really old guy in my boot camp. I think he was 26.

#227 Observer on 02.18.22 at 10:12 am

#193 mousey on 02.18.22 at 12:57 am
Mr. Falken (fake name),
My parents came to Canada as refugees in 1958. They rented a one bedroom apartment for 13 years before they could by a crappy house on a busy commuter street. Two of our cats got run over while we lived there.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Maybe your parents should have kept the cats in the house like responsible owners do.

#228 Dimaond Dog on 02.18.22 at 10:14 am

Second quick message for fake Falken.

An even surer sign of maturity is when someone is willing to “own” the mistakes of others. Get to that level and you can hunt with the pack.

#229 wk on 02.18.22 at 10:19 am

The first rule of being an adult is to take responsibility.

#230 The Peg..Help! on 02.18.22 at 10:35 am

Great advice!…I’m 51, I live in the flat part of Canada, I have one of those near fossil state DB pension plan (sorry!) which I’m hoping to put into use in 5-7 years and bought my house 21 years ago (also sorry!). Things are OK here!

That being said I wish I had this type of advice available when I was 25 years old! Or least showed interest in learning this stuff. Things would be different. The financial mis-calculations I’ve made over my adult life will serve my offspring well (fingers crossed). Invest early, invest wisely and invest within your means. Time is your friend, exercise at least modest restraint. It’s a long game!

This blog should be mandatory reading in our high schools!! The exam and final grade handed out at age 65! Pass/Fail or somewhere in between.

Keep up the great work!!

#231 Sail Away on 02.18.22 at 10:38 am

#228 Dimaond Dog on 02.18.22 at 10:14 am

An even surer sign of maturity is when someone is willing to “own” the mistakes of others. Get to that level and you can hunt with the pack.

——–

Does it count to apologize for the mistakes of others thereby passive aggressively exposing their failings a la T2?

#232 Shawn on 02.18.22 at 10:48 am

Currency to zero in 100 years?

#205 THE DANDADA on 02.18.22 at 8:01 am
“Over the next 100 years the currency is going to zero” ….Charlie Munger

******************
Okay, he said that is a safe working assumption.

In fact in 98 year old Charlie Mungers lifetime a dollar at his birth now buys about 7 cents worth at official U.S inflation numbers. So not far off zero.

How has this harmed him? Not at all.

The danger now is for people to misinterpret what Munger would advise doing. We know he hates Bitcoin and crypto.

What he likes is owning shares in great businesses. These are valued and measured in dollars but are not investments in dollars.

What he presumably would never buy today is a very long term bond. That is an investment in actual dollars.

There is a vast difference between an investment that is measured in dollars and one that is actually in dollars such as a bond, or GIC or bank account. (And do note that a dollar in a bank account is not noting to zero anytime soon).

#233 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.18.22 at 10:49 am

220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 9:48 am
@#207 Pretentious Posing Ponzie
” I had a company paid subscription to The Economist for over 25 years.”

+++

And it languished in the reception room, on a coffee table , unread….. because “you didn’t have time to read it”.

Typical.

As far as “bias”.

I disagree.
I like it because it has a British/European world view to counter the onslaught of American and Canadian media sensationalist ” cat stuck in tree” pap.
—————————
Not sure you noticed but Britain is no longer part of Europe.
The called it Brexit.
The were never part of Europe, anyway.

#234 Quintilian on 02.18.22 at 10:51 am

CEF:
You are free to think and believe what you want.
But as I schooled, gratis, Shawn earlier, Monetary Policy is a blunt tool.

Can Central Bank engineer a soft landing?

Possibly, but unlikely; their record speaks for itself.

In theory they could, but because they are actually a political tentacle, they serve their masters until there is no more pillaging left to be done.

They will leave my generation to deal with the disaster /distortions.

The growing wealth gap is evidence you cannot ignore.

#235 paulie walnuts on 02.18.22 at 10:55 am

Garth, you’ll need to post a picture of your shoe…..because I’ve never seen you break your foot off in a whiny brat’s ass quite like you have done in this post. Hats off to you Don Turnerone. To the kid, the world and its generations that came before you owe you precisely ugatz. But, thanks for bringing your entitled victim mentality to this blog for all to see you be made an example of. I’d warn you about the door hitting your ass on the way out……but,….Garth’s foot…marone!

#236 Diamond Dog on 02.18.22 at 11:14 am

#231 Sail Away on 02.18.22 at 10:38 am

I get what you are saying. I was thinking I should have clarified, “own the damage or fallout” from others” but in a sense, own other people’s mistakes suggests that one is willing to own the mistakes as a whole. For example, you belong to civilization and own the mistakes of civilization as a consequence because you are a part of the whole. But yes, owning the mess (be willing to clean it up, own the damage) of others suggests very much so that you are ready to hunt with the pack, maybe lead it.

#237 Happy Family Day Weekend!! on 02.18.22 at 11:33 am

Happy Family Day weekend to all!

And nothing says Family Day to our PM like bustin’ heads and rounding up political prisoners!

Now we know what the rush to use the Emergencies Act was about. Can’t waste a long weekend in our glorious nation’s capital.

#238 Shawn on 02.18.22 at 11:46 am

Too Much of the Economy in Real Estate?

#222 Benjamin on 02.18.22 at 9:54 am

Josh is correct though. Real estate has siphoned off record amounts of wealth into a bottomless pit of non-productivity. There will be a retirement crisis in Canada because of this horrible misallocation of resources. The nation’s economy is a total disaster. It is sad to see what the country has become.

***************************
I’m not so sure…

A true misallocation of resources would be too much labor and material going into creating too many houses.

We apparently still have a shortage of houses (I doubt so-called empty houses is much of a thing or has increased much).

When millennial Joe buys a formerly $500k house from Geezer Frank and pays $1 million, Joe has a problem. But Frank has the million dollars (an extra $500k).

Where is the misallocation of resources?

No money got used up here. It just got created by a bank loan and then flowed to Geezer Frank.

This is not too much resources into housing. (Not too many nails and drywall etc)

More like too much in old Frank’s pocket and young Joe stuck with the debt so intergenerational inequity seems more the crime here.

#239 TurnerNation on 02.18.22 at 11:54 am

Lads looks like we have a NASDAQ BEAR market.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NQ&p=w1

#240 Sail Away on 02.18.22 at 12:00 pm

Need a full-service bunker? Ponzie, this is right up your alley:

https://www.terravivos.com/secure/vivosxpoint.htm

#241 Legal Beagle on 02.18.22 at 12:03 pm

Middle/Young end mill here with one of those rare 6 figure jobs – married, kids, and the Mrs. in the same boat career wise. Fake name but no fake IP.

The Mrs. and I are making a go of life here in the frozen tundra – “adulting” as hard as we can. We see what’s going on but don’t complain, just quietly keep trucking along… (please don’t freeze my bank accounts)

What I will say though is that many, many, many of our friends and colleagues in the same boat as us (educated professionals, and well paid) not only get where Mr. F is coming from, but feel and actively express those same sentiments. This goes for those who own both Real Property and those who don’t.

This is the major problem that gets lost in all of the back and forth. Whether justified or not “these people” (to quote JT again) feel hard done by.

Many are leaving, but others are just removing themselves from the workforce and society in general. Paralyzed from enjoying themselves, starting a life, or otherwise becoming engaged/active members of our society.

It really is sad. I’ve already seen the term “lost generation” bandied about here and I really think it’s true. If this is the case for the “upper end” of the wage scale I can’t imagine what it’s like for someone lower down the ladder.

How this plays out is anyone’s guess, but the problem – from my perspective, is much bigger than this blog and much more complicated than boomer vs. mill.

I will end by saying I do appreciate all the free advice on this blog and it has helped me and my family tremendously.

#242 Observer on 02.18.22 at 12:13 pm

OPS tweeting that peaceful protestors/occupiers/insurrectionists (depending on your viewpoint) have put children between themselves and advancing police.

#243 Barb on 02.18.22 at 12:20 pm

#225
“My unearned wealth has exploded the last 2 years and I’d be happy to give it all back and then some, to give the future a fighting chance.”

——————————
OK, then do.
Nice to hear from a REAL socialist.

#244 Katherine on 02.18.22 at 12:22 pm

#225 In Disbelief

I totally agree!!!! I have a 35 year old daughter. She and her 37 year old husband are both professionals earning well over $200,000 a year. They have been renting in the GTA and investing for years hoping to purchase a house for their family (2 little kids). Many posts have told them to wait and now they can’t afford to get into the market. Garth will say just move to a city or town that is more affordable. That isn’t always palatable for many as family is very important. Happiness isn’t always about money.

#245 Anyone Else See The Irony... on 02.18.22 at 12:44 pm

….of cops (one of the lowest vaccination rates in Canada) arresting truck drivers (and one of the highest vaccinated groups).

Another Monty Python moment brought to you by the Liberal/NDP Cabal; your partners in political purity and the new owners of your bank account.

You just can’t make this stuff up.

It’s civil insurrection. What does vaccine status have to do with anything? – Garth

#246 TheDood on 02.18.22 at 12:48 pm

#230 The Peg..Help! on 02.18.22 at 10:35 am
Great advice!…I’m 51, I live in the flat part of Canada, I have one of those near fossil state DB pension plan (sorry!) which I’m hoping to put into use in 5-7 years and bought my house 21 years ago (also sorry!). Things are OK here!

That being said I wish I had this type of advice available when I was 25 years old! Or least showed interest in learning this stuff. Things would be different. The financial mis-calculations I’ve made over my adult life will serve my offspring well (fingers crossed). Invest early, invest wisely and invest within your means. Time is your friend, exercise at least modest restraint. It’s a long game!

This blog should be mandatory reading in our high schools!! The exam and final grade handed out at age 65! Pass/Fail or somewhere in between.

Keep up the great work!!
_________________________

Couldn’t have said it better. The information available here is priceless and free.

People who don’t take an interest in their own personal finances are likely doomed to struggle for their entire lives. They can blame all they want but blame fixes nothing. To the younger generation – get educated and get out of this country.

#247 DON on 02.18.22 at 1:05 pm

#234 Quintilian on 02.18.22 at 10:51 am
CEF:
You are free to think and believe what you want.
But as I schooled, gratis, Shawn earlier, Monetary Policy is a blunt tool.

Can Central Bank engineer a soft landing?

Possibly, but unlikely; their record speaks for itself.

In theory they could, but because they are actually a political tentacle, they serve their masters until there is no more pillaging left to be done.

They will leave my generation to deal with the disaster /distortions.

The growing wealth gap is evidence you cannot ignore.

**********

To engineer a soft landing one would have to have some control over the whole event. Maybe its already too late. They sat on their hands the last time inflation took off. History may not repeat but Human nature does. Take a moment and read some of the info from the early 80’s. They sat on their hands until they were forced to move.

Maybe we should turn the subject on what will happen if they don’t raise rates in a timely manner. I wonder what happens if you leave an over heating car engine running.

#248 Paul on 02.18.22 at 1:07 pm

#244 Katherine on 02.18.22 at 12:22 pm
#225 In Disbelief

I totally agree!!!! I have a 35 year old daughter. She and her 37 year old husband are both professionals earning well over $200,000 a year. They have been renting in the GTA and investing for years hoping to purchase a house for their family (2 little kids). Many posts have told them to wait and now they can’t afford to get into the market. Garth will say just move to a city or town that is more affordable. That isn’t always palatable for many as family is very important. Happiness isn’t always about money.
———————————————————————————————
But this blog is all about money.

#249 Sail Away on 02.18.22 at 1:26 pm

“It’s civil insurrection. What does vaccine status have to do with anything? – Garth”

——-

We have our own civil insurrection going on in BC. Luckily the Emergency Act is already in place nationwide to help solve this as a two-fer-one:

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/coastal-gaslink-site-attacked-overnight-with-millions-in-damage-to-equipment

#250 Anyone Else See The Irony... on 02.18.22 at 1:28 pm

….of cops (one of the lowest vaccination rates in Canada) arresting truck drivers (and one of the highest vaccinated groups).

Another Monty Python moment brought to you by the Liberal/NDP Cabal; your partners in political purity and the new owners of your bank account.

You just can’t make this stuff up.

It’s civil insurrection. What does vaccine status have to do with anything? – Garth
——

This whole thing was sparked by a group of people being identified, marginalized and vilified based on their vaccine status. Not sure how you missed that.

But Civil Insurrection?? Seriously??

I see an out of control tailgate party that bears as much resemblance to the FLQ crisis as a pillow fight does to the Battle for Iwo Jima. Totally outrageous abuse of power to cover up government incompetence and intransigence. Calling it an insurrection is just silly.

There was more massively more damage done by protestors tearing down the statue of Gassy Jack in Vancouver last week. And infinitely more on the Coastal Pipeline project yesterday.

The difference was none of them happened in Trudeau’s back yard.

#251 Sail Away on 02.18.22 at 1:29 pm

Actually, millions in targeted destruction to a critical piece of energy infrastructure probably reaches the level of domestic terrorism.

I’d personally consider the Gas Link attack more of an issue than the truckers…

#252 Disbelief on 02.18.22 at 1:42 pm

243 Barb on 02.18.22 at 12:20 pm

_______________________________
I’m worth 5 fold minimum what you are, guaranteed so no socialist here.

But spoken like a bonafide crony capitalist Barbed Wire. I didn’t earn my wealth through speculation and off the backs of others.

#253 Daveyboy on 02.18.22 at 1:51 pm

Living in the U.S., you quickly realize , no one cares about Canadian real estate

#254 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 2:13 pm

700,000 Ukrainians are on the move.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-breaks-out-east-ukraine-west-moscow-dispute-troop-moves-2022-02-17/

Monday Feb21st at Midnight?
After the Olympics end?

Putin ‘s meeting with his dictator buddy Xi a few weeks ago to hammer out the details?

“Don’t rain on our Olympic parade”

#255 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 2:19 pm

@#233 Ponzies pathetic pinprick
“Not sure you noticed but Britain is no longer part of Europe.
The called it Brexit.
The were never part of Europe, anyway.”

+++
Great rebuttal.
I expected as much.

Any comments on the Russian ordered evacuation of eastern Ukraine?
700,000 people bussed to Russia?
Putin gearing up nuclear missile tests?

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-oversee-nuclear-drills-during-standoff-over-ukraine-2022-02-18/

Does the wind blow west towards Austria in the Spring?
Radioactive fallout might be an issue for edible Rutabagas.

#256 jakethesnake on 02.18.22 at 2:34 pm

Josh is right about some things. It’s inarguable that the world is a much more competitive, cut-throat, insane place than it was for North American-based boomers growing up in the 60s-80s period. Back then, you needed less certifications, education, experience, connections, etc. to land a good, high-paying or even mediocre-paying job. My dad, who arrived here is a non-English speaker in the mid 70s with nothing but the shirt on his back recalled how he could literally walk into a restaurant or up to a factory, tell them he’s looking for work, and as long as he doesn’t look like he’s crippled or insane, would be asked “can you wash dishes, or cook spaghetti, or lift more than 40lbs, or push this button on this assembly line?” As long as his answer was yes, the reaction was, “can you start on Monday at xxxx o’clock?”

Now, as a PhD (not that those are worth anything, but still), you have to fill out applications and go through rounds of interviews and compete against 10 other highly educated young people to land a factory job or restaurant job. This is irrefutable.

I’m not complaining, I’m a millennial who through the grace of God / Allah alone (along with hard work, perseverance, some wise decisions, and militant savings practices) have done well for myself and I give thanks to no one but Him. I own assets, have a pretty decent net worth for not living in the centre of the universe, and could likely retire today at 41 as long as my assets perform reasonably well over the next few decades. But anyone my age or slightly younger who is even missing ONE of the ingredients I listed above and thankfully have myself, is likely far from in my boat. It is a hard world out there right now, arguably harder than it was from the 60s-90s, what with another 4 billions souls all competing for the same limited resources. Not having plumbing or electricity growing up (like a lot of immigrant boomers or grandparents experienced) has nothing to do with ability to grow and be successful. Those are irrelevant data points that don’t contribute to or hamper one’s ability to prosper if in fact one is seeking prosperity. Opportunity is all that matters, and people without plumbing have that opportunity to succeed if they simply are able or want to move to the West. Sure many people in Canada and the US didn’t have running water or electricity until perhaps the 40s or 50s, but the ecosystem around them (the growing West) is all that matters — if you’re in a growing environment that is advancing and providing you with opportunities, you can prosper if you take advantage. It seems like the West is now stagnant or on the decline. That is the source of angst that Josh is displaying, because it means it’s much harder to make a go of it. It’s easier to make a go of it when the walls are expanding, much harder when the walls are closing in on you, despite flashes of opportunity here and there as a consequence of tech advances that quickly dissipate or dissolve into obsolescence for you if you’re
not in the right place at the right time.

#257 Faron on 02.18.22 at 2:35 pm

#239 TurnerNation on 02.18.22 at 11:54 am

Lads looks like we have a NASDAQ BEAR market.

Nice work TN, you almost bottom ticked it. Up more than 0.50% since then. Are you the inverse of the SAGI? The TuNCosI perhaps? TurnerNation Conspiracy Index? Calling bottoms is even more valuable than calling tops. Upside is always unlimited. Best you can do unleveraged short is 100%.

VIX is deep red while the indexes are also in the red (as of 11:25 PST) suggests that a VIX compression may be underway. VIX floor seems to be about 20 with uncertainty from the fed. Anything above that is rocket fuel for a rally out of easing of Ukraine war fears.

Anyhow, I’m probably top ticking this now. LOL

#258 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.18.22 at 2:36 pm

@#241 Legal Beagle
“How this plays out is anyone’s guess, but the problem – from my perspective, is much bigger than this blog and much more complicated than boomer vs. mill.”

+++

Total agreement.
The “leaders” don’t have any answers other than throwing billions more tax dollars at anyone that complains rather than making unpopular decisions ( raising interest rates 2, 4, 6 years ago, abolishing CMHC, taxing housing sales, etc.,etc., etc.)

#259 Faron on 02.18.22 at 2:38 pm

#233 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.18.22 at 10:49 am

Are you vying for my position as the full-moon wild man? Chin up bub. Long weekend, you live in “the best place on earth”.

#260 Howard on 02.18.22 at 2:51 pm

It seems posts that cite actual facts (with sources) to refute the Boomer talking points are censored here?

No, just you. – Garth

#261 Dr V on 02.18.22 at 3:12 pm

252 Disbelief

“I didn’t earn my wealth through speculation and off the backs of others.”
———————————-

Everybody speculates. Your spouse, education, career and place/country you choose to call home. Choose wisely, it should work out well. And you have doubled your “unearned wealth”? However you did it, that is speculation.

And that impressive wealth – must be 8 figures. Have
employees? Customers? Clients? Sounds like “others” to me.

Feel free to distribute that unearned wealth as you see fit throughout your family and community. Many wealthy people do that.

#262 Chris on 02.18.22 at 3:23 pm

My grandparents and parents now in their 60’s, 80’s are very conservative, cautious with their money and always have been. RRSPs, TFSAs, RESPs, RDSPs, cash joint accounts and filled with staggered GICs, provincial bonds, strip bonds, savings accounts, cashable GICs have served them well. They are completely debt free, have a modest house for many years now, don’t have to rely on leveraging on other real estate or stocks, bonds, mutual, etfs etc., don’t have to get a reverse mortgage to survive or live a decent life.

People are too focused and obsessed with getting a high return 9%, 10%+. It is way more important to have a high savings rate 30% of net minimum and reinvest RRSP tax savings to the fullest, max out TFSAs, RRSPs, other tax deferred, tax free plans and get rid of debt, avoid speculation and trading, expecting high returns. All my family members in their 30’s, 40’s are minimum net worth $400,000 to $500,000 and in their 50’s, 60’s+ are minimum $750,000 to $1 million each. People make it so complicated but it really is not. It is not easy but it is simple to do. It takes time and discipline and people are just too without patience and look at what works.

#263 Barb on 02.18.22 at 3:46 pm

And now (drumroll) the Libs are quoting the CBC.

ttps://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/furey-liberals-cite-cbc-analysis-to-justify-freezing-bank-accounts?fbclid=IwAR0gGqNU3b3HuvyiXJoOK5BQp_iWhAt0OTaoHzf0pT5wrVGSgp__mSUJWmU

So…what came first: chicken or egg?

#264 Barb on 02.18.22 at 3:47 pm

oops…should be an “h” at beginning of link.

#265 inOttawa2012 on 02.18.22 at 5:05 pm

Josh is gonna need lots of Aloe for that BURN! Thanks for all you do, Garth!

#266 Disbelief on 02.19.22 at 9:43 am

261 Dr V on 02.18.22 at 3:12 pm
252 Disbelief

“I didn’t earn my wealth through speculation and off the backs of others.”
———————————-

Everybody speculates. Your spouse, education, career and place/country you choose to call home. Choose wisely, it should work out well. And you have doubled your “unearned wealth”? However you did it, that is speculation.

And that impressive wealth – must be 8 figures. Have
employees? Customers? Clients? Sounds like “others” to me.

Feel free to distribute that unearned wealth as you see fit throughout your family and community. Many wealthy people do that.

________________________________

For someone who fancies themselves a doctor, you’re not very bright. My net worth doubled through rampant real estate and bs stock market inflation, all manipulated by central bank policies and speculation. Try and follow along. I’d be happy for that to revert back at least 5 years (more like 10+) to help the young generations and lock up bankers who get away with this garbage, they are solely to blame in case you didn’t know. The bulk of it was back breaking hard work and serving my clients 7 days per week for the past 27 years.

But you hang on to your little cupcake of a nest egg with all of your might Dr Victor Frankenstein, we wouldn’t want to you think of anyone but yourself.

#267 Prince Polo on 02.19.22 at 10:22 am

Free advice (from another Millennial) for Josh Falken.

#21 Prince Polo on 02.05.21 at 2:54 pm
Invest 15-20% of your gross each year for 25 years and let time do the heavy lifting. I’m currently into year 16 of 25. Unfortunately, nobody wants to hear about the surest way to wealth.

Now to quote Detective John Kimble:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fzGRyHANAU