While the stench of political crisis hangs over the capital, Covid rules fade, inflation roils and central banks put their fingers on the rate trigger, it’s hard to diminish the madness of crowds around us. This blog told you days ago that 2022 would be a year of history. It’s happening now.
Like on Pinewood Avenue in a definitely-not-the-best-hood part of Toronto.
The utterly pedestrian house of just 1,800 square feet at Number 127 was listed for an eye-watering $2.4 million. It sold. The same day. For $3,000.000. Plus $123,000 in land transfer tax. Here it is…
It’s insane of course. This is tulip bulb time in Toronto, and most other Canadian cities. Listings have collapsed (just 1.6 months of inventory across all of the country – a record low), FOMO has hit a new high as prices romp, the spring market started in January this year and now the spectre of rate increases has turned buyer desire into blind-bidding delirium.
I had a long convo with Jake and Susan yesterday. They sold a couple of years ago due to a job relocation and have been sitting on a million in cash (in a HISA) while they rent and wait for prices to cool. That didn’t happen. Now they’re panicking – ready to jump. Buy anything. Any price. Just. Get. In.
Across Canada last month sales fell a little because of lack of inventory. Prices did not. The year/year increase was 21% on average and 28% for the realtor Frankenumber. More records. The average of all properties of all types in all cities everywhere is now $748,450. Fear of missing out is the driving market factor. Because logic certainly isn’t.
What do we know about 2022?
First, an interest-rate tightening cycle begins in a few weeks. US Treasuries this week soared past 2% – a very big deal. Markets think the Fed will jump its rate a half point next month, then another half after that. Our guys will follow. Mortgages at 2% will be 4% by Christmas. More next year.
Every time in history rates have fallen, houses got more expensive. That happened in spades when Covid came to town. History also shows when rates rise, house prices are hit. People can carry less debt, after all. So will this inverse rate-price relationship hold firm again, or be broken for the first time ever? If so, we are in deep trouble.
Second, the feds have a real estate strategy. Could change a lot. The spring budget will reveal. Pushing the market will be a CMHC loan ceiling increase, an enhanced buyer tax credit and that crazy FHSA. On the pull side will be a national anti-Chinese-dude tax and rules making it harder for people to buy and finance properties they’re not going to live in. Plus we have new empty-houses taxes, big property tax increases and the distinct possibility of a speculation tax. In short, lots of stuff for the market to digest.
The end result of whacking property investors and cooling the market with rate hikes could be a swell in listings. After all, a quarter of all recent buys have been by non-occupiers. If their assets stop generating big annual capital gains and deliver only negative cash flow (because almost all renters are subsidized), why not bail?
Third, Covid. It’s ending, Restrictions, lockdowns, quarantines, cross-border tests and lots of WFH will be but a memory in a year or so. Aggressive nesting will fade. The burning desire to move to Bunnypatch and Armpit will be gone. Cities will repopulate (Toronto’s PATH started coming alive this week). The boss will want to see your buns in a swivel chair. Over time, all of the crazy, emotional, virus-laded reasons people became ultra house horny will be gone, along with the slimy little pathogen. Those who thought life was forever altered will be, well, wrong.
The above is not conjecture. Higher rates. More political diddling. Post-Covid life. They are all coming.
So why would Jake and Susan jump into the housing market cauldron just prior? Why on earth enter a bidding war with a pack of crazies all burning to spend their pre-authorized mortgages on any piece of junk that hits MLS? How could this not be peak house as we sit on the precipice of rate roulette?
As stated, there is only one driver now. Fear. Fear prices will rise forever like the realtors tell you. Fear that nobody will want to list their home and you’ll end up being Hoovered by a blood-sucking landlord who then throws you out so her cousin’s failed son can move in. Fear if you don’t buy in 2022 you’ll never own anything, anywhere. Fear of missing out on guaranteed gains because, you know, real estate never goes down. Fear the average house will, like 127 Pinewood, hit three million and keep going.
Is this you?
Then find another blog. This one’s for people devoid of emotion.
About the picture: “Here’s Billie, our 7 year old boxer who came to us via Boxer Rescue LA,” writes James. “After starting life in foster as an aid dog, she came to us very timid and afraid but has blossomed into the sweetest, gentlest friend who has an uncanny way of putting other dogs at ease. Here she is on a trip through the dandelions at a friend’s lodge on Vancouver Island.”
195 comments ↓
Here’s a mid-week message of hope.
A couple of days ago I nearly posted this. But it sounded extreme, far fetched. Too radical. Today is the time.
-Do you really believe you’ll be allowed to keep $1-3 million in primary residence gains.
-Do you really think you will be allowed to sit fat and happy on a multi million dollar portfolio churning out independent income.
-Do you sincerely believe your land parcels will not be expropitated or, at least, blocked from future development (“Climate”/green zoning rules you see).
-Do you think that any independence from our local arm of the Global State will be allowed?
Oh sure for some. The Party Elites and Friends of the Party.
Your weakness is that you do not believe how far these people will take this. And they will not lose a night’s sleep over it. Does a wolf regret savaging a herd of sheep? Leaving a bloody and writhing mess? It’s just instinctual.
Else, you will be given one small kando apartment block unit. UBI. And free so-so health care.
BOC decided not to raise rates in January and house prices increased by $150,000 in one month!!
Get ready for some new headlines and rates will stay the same. It would be suicide for the federal government not to keep real estate red hot.
Why does everyone think that they must own a house? There is no rational explanation for this.
Rates will not increase materially either in the US or here in the next while (Canada’s BoC follows the Fed’s rate decisions like good little lap dogs). We just need to be afraid that they will rise, so the central banks can get away with printing burgeoning debts.
Raising the Federal Funds rate will detonate the national debt in the US, now above $40 Trillion.
Sorry Garth, but anyone with half a brain who understands this knows you’re just trying to scare us.
Not working on me so far.
i just wonder what the conspiracy theorists will complain about next. economy opening up. mandates dropped. masks eventually will come off.. bill gates didn’t inject them with a microchip. the great reset didn’t happen..
what new tragedy will befall us? can’t wait…
At this point buying real estate is a form of self-harm.
Why would anyone drop so much money for that house? Upzoned?
Reminds me of Newton and GWT. Even the best of minds can be duped into a manufactured reality. Distract, separate, conquer…
Open your eyes kiddoes. I know, kinda hard while you’re watching me on your phones…I got yur *oxy* right here…the fun is just getting started!
Og
Not insane at all. Forward thinking. Your traitorous corrupt puppet government plans to create over 440,000 new people this year and they cant live outside.
Apparently Canadians exist for the benefit of corporations. Here I was thinking corporations exist for the benefit of humanity. I was so wrong to move back to Canada. I regret it every day. Unfortunaltey leaving is much harder than arriving.
Fear is indeed a powerful emotion that can make people do irrational things. In Vancouver we’re already seeing a large uptick in new inventory hitting the markets. We should see a more balanced market over time. :)
But the other question if you’re a net saver, is where do you allocate extra cash when inflation is high, and the stock markets are volatile? I can understand how real estate can still look attractive for some investors.
Houston we have a problem
If you get an interest free loan, that house is only ten thousand a month for twenty five years.
$327.87/day. plus plus!
hyperinflation and dictatorships coming hand in hand in banana republics?
#3 Richard L on 02.15.22 at 2:45 pm
“Why does everyone think that they must own a house? There is no rational explanation for this”
>>>>>>
Wanna bet?
Og
If the role of the Bank of Canada is to simply parrot the Federal Reserve, why cant we replace the overpaid useless clowns running the Bank of Canada with an actual, you know, Parrot.
Polly want a mortgage?
#8 Neo on 02.15.22 at 2:54 pm
“Your traitorous corrupt puppet government plans to create over 440,000 new people this year and they cant live outside”
———————————————————
The government doesn’t create people; people create people.
If ‘Billie’ is sitting in dandelions right now I’m envious! Shoveled snow this morning, more to come.
Oddly enough I was looking at multifamily building listings in the GTA just yesterday. Was wondering what a small apartment building goes for. Saw a 6 unit GTA building located close to lakefront (two blocks off as per Google Maps). Looked to be in decent shape as per the photos. Priced at $3 million. Seems to me the folks who bought that 1,800 square foot abode would have been better off buying the apartment building. I mean, if you are going to spend that much presumably that building would be far better value per $. This RE market just boggles the mind.
Martial law powers for the PM when no a single shop window has been broken in 3 weeks.
Even with all the murders, violence and looting of the BML protests the US never went that far!
But I guess some of that crowd has “inacceptable views”, that is it seems enough in Canada these days.
Politicians of this country (past and present) are either blind or cowards to let that pass. And the press is even worse.
I don’t subscribe to the Globe so I can’t see this paywalled-article, but apparently Canada’s housing minister just told landlords that he won’t do anything to “harm” them (i.e. will never let RE prices decline).
Basically a green light for investors to grab what they can and non-owners to panic, exactly what Garth just said not to do.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-government-doesnt-want-to-harm-mom-and-pop-real-estate-investors/
I ‘dunno Garth.
“Third, Covid. It’s ending, Restrictions…”
‘Been watching Denmark that got rid of all restrictions etc. Feb. 1st.
How its been going = not good.
https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1492941843272810497
Omicron deaths 2X Delta in 1/3 the time.
And now they are heavily vaxd compared to when they got hit by Delta.
Lungs are lungs.
Mother Nature not fussy about their location be it Denmark, Italia or Canada.
————–
People & Govs can convince themselves of whatever but per the above, clear Mother Nature doesn’t give a damn of what they think or believe in.
People will begin to notice the ambulances and hearse mobiles exiting hospitals soon enough, even in
COVID-19 no longer a ‘socially critical disease’ in Denmark
Aug. 27
COVID-19 no longer a ‘socially critical disease’ in Denmark
Jan. 26
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke
———————
Third time’s a Charm?
Feds could raise a whole lotta funds if they quietly implemented a FOMO tax!!!! When will filming of The Big Short 2.0 start?
#5 don’t poke the bear on 02.15.22 at 2:51 pm
Killary Hunter used a laptop to tell Antifa to disguise the Ottawa War Memorial as a urinal, in order to make the humble, salt-of-the-Earth, God-fearing patriots look bad.
I’m sick of hearing about this issue being a supply issue and justifying current house prices. There was virtually no population grow during the past 2 Covid years yet prices went up. Yes, people leaving the city increased demand for detached houses in the burbs but with virtually no population grow cities should have seen a drop in demand. They didn’t. We have a people collecting houses problem. That’ll be solved once prices go down and stay that way for a while.
What would that house rent out for?
The average sale price in 1990 was $255,000; however, the 90s saw an 11% drop in this average over the course of a decade, finishing at $228,000 in 1999.
History doesn’t repeat, but it could rhyme. We currently don’t have the unemployment issues nor immigration issues they had in the 90’s to hit RE valuations. But the rates, my oh, my the rates.
The average mortgage rate in 1990 was 10.13%, and it slowly fell, dipping below 7% to 6.94% in 1998.
So what happens when unemployment is at all time lows, immigration is up, and rates go from 2% to 4+% over a few years. Stay tuned.
everything you say is conjecture
the FED may increase the rates, but by april inflation can be down to 3% due to base effect and fewer supply chain issues, so they can undo the increase very easily – especially if the markets get too disturbed
Why are we encouraging speculation during a housing shortage? Why not tax the %&%%( out of people sitting on multiple properties in the big cities where there is a housing shortage? That will fix the problem overnight.
This blog has been good for my sanity. Thank you.
Bidding wars have reared their ugly head here in Calgary. Have never seen that before, and glad to see folks coming back downtown. Good for everyone here I think.
indeed it is insane. I have a childhood friend who bought a 1.8M detached house in Whistler at the end of 2016 and has done a little DIY work, but not much. Has spent the past 5 years skiing and doing some freelance work. House is on sale now for just over 5M. If he is successful it will be essentially 500K per year untaxed profit (even after the real estate commission) . He can then completely retire as he plans to do. All of this is super-crazy and for those young families trying to make a start (not in Whistler of course, but in now so many areas of the country) they are largely out of luck.
Yesterday on the Regime’s Media Network they had a fellow on from an organization , “Centre for International Governance Innovation”
Hmmm I thought….”Innovative Governance”
In my Canada
You commit an act or do something against an agreed upon clearly promulgated law; then you then get a fine or go to jail etc. The system to govern the population is clear, understood and largely seen as fair.
People have the traditional Western protections that have been fought for and evolved over centuries. Magna Carta etc
In “New” Post National State Canada with the feature of “Innovative Governance”; corporate power fully integrated with Government & Media power’
– You are compelled to do something, that is not a Law and will be forced out of your job if you do not do it.
– If you have a taboo thought or question some unassailable narrative you will never be hired. Holding some opinions is now verboten!
– If you say certain things in public regardless of any perceived “Freedom of Speech” you will most certainly lose your job.
– If you are accused of breaking a rule, forget jail, fines, court, it is bank seizure of all property and freezing of accounts.
Now I will admit these new governance innovations are more efficient, no pesky traditional rights, limits or recourse, you don’t really even need a law to be broken anymore, just an administrative regulation. All this nudging innovative governance sure makes the use of power for our Globalist Elite much easier…
Insert evil laughter….
Hi Folks,
No point complaining about not making money or possibly losing money in the future. Just pick your entry point in any financial asset you feel comfortable investing in. I chose RE in Toronto over 30 years ago and even though there have been some down years, just limit your leverage and you will be just FINE!. Even today, there are many possible areas for RE investment or just a home to live and raise your family. Do your research (schools, transit, crime rate, rental / principal mix ratio, green space), then enter the market. You could have bought in 2017 in the Applefield Dr neighbourhood of Scarborough for $900k. That area is now $1.2 to 1.4 mil. Not bad considering all the bears were predicting a crash in 2017.
Tune out the noise and think for yourselves. You’ll be better for it.
Real estate situation is more disheartening than ever. Is it cruel of me to fantasize about 50% price correction?
Our landlord jacked up our rent by more than the legal, prescribed percentage.
We’re paying up because we have nowhere else to go .
Greed is a terrible disease.
This property has gone up by $4000 PER MONTH since we’ve lived here, in addition to the monthly rent we pay, but the owner doesn’t see that.
They’re very much aware that the penalty is one year’s rent for breaking the law.
We can’t report it right now, but you can bet that if we get a renoviction notice, ( so they can bring in someone paying more), our action will be swift.
Billie looks happy as can be out in the boonies.
“More political diddling…”
That’s a given, considering this crew.
Singh’s running the joint.
Tulips indeed! Assets that have temporarily increased in value become attractive in spite of the fact that there is no relationship between their intrinsic value and their highly inflated extrinsic value.
How can a virtual coin that is actually imaginary when you look behind the curtain be worth $56,000. By imagining that the value of 127 Pinewood will increase by $300,000 in 2022 the intrinsic value becomes irrelevant.
Many investors live in an imaginary world in their quest for Alpha. No need for economic fundamentals just look on the internet for tales of instant wealth generated in an imaginary world where the value of an asset always increases and the cost of borrowing money always remains low.
Looking for sanity in a world where reality has been temporarily suspended is an exercise in futility. Best to wait for reality to emerge from the current chaos.
Don’t get me wrong on restrictions (vis-à-vis my prior Comment). As eager as anyone on Planet Earth to get rid of them in totality, the sooner the better.
A very good Math Medical based source on Twitter that I follow, unbiased, is Dr. William Ku, Ph.D.
Some great Tweets by him for those of you interested in this whole Covid-19 mess – latest and greatest.
Samples:
One benchmark that countries and states consider before easing #COVID19 restrictions… [CFR]
https://twitter.com/DrWilliamKu/status/1491788117522534404
As states rush to drop #COVID19 mitigation measures…more important than ever for the elderly and the immunocompromised to fend for themselves… [medicines advice etc.]
https://twitter.com/DrWilliamKu/status/1492455531621011460
#BA2 is surging exponentially in the US and if #Sotrovimab is 27X less effective we are left with fewer options for #Omicron that have yet to be proven against the #BA2.
https://twitter.com/DrWilliamKu/status/1493608099881656321
[his way of expressing concern without going histrionic, why I like him]
——————
3 flavours of Omicron. BA.2 just beginning to surge in the US and it’s bad news (see prior Denmark Comment). Other 2 flavours dropping in the US.
Suspect the same in Canada but Canada doesn’t test anymore and sequencing only 7.4% of new cases (of which it isn’t counting much to start with).
In the end, it will be about ambulances, overflowing hospitals and far too many hearses parked outside the morgue.
Time will tell.
Fingers crossed.
“Now they’re panicking – ready to jump. Buy anything. Any price. Just. Get. In.”
…………………………………………
This is what traditionally happens at the height of madness of any cycle. A prelude to a gasbag about to burst traditionally speaking. As in the days without the gargantuan lies being spread about at an unprecedented scale as never before seen.
The lies at an unprecedented scale that have grown this bubble ever larger than most anyone ever dreamed possible.
The gullible masses going along, only perpetuate the living lie expanding the bubble as never before seen.
Debt driven lies have made those in the forefront smart enough to capitalize on them by selling RE at these price levels rich people. Its been by those lies that’s done that for them.
Good on them provided they don’t become blinded by their own greed and allow themselves to be sucked back into the debt vortex with greater plans to expand further, risking it all.
All in all, the one good thing about the ongoing lies stoking real estate, is when they make you rich…that is, until the music stops and they no longer do when the ponzi ends.
If the RE ponzi isn’t ended by high interest rates, then the very height of capitol stupidity will seal it.
As for the rest….all the rest will be left with the perpetuated lies and massive debt that doesn’t go away. For many…barely outside of bankruptcy anyway, down the road, as the reality of mindless frenzy long wears off and reality settles in as the economy falters.
In general disinterested in those whole Trucker thing in Canada.
Apparently, it’ just me.
Trudeau just tweeted another his raison d’etre 25 min ago.
2739 comments (counter looking like a Vegas slot machine after you pull the handle)
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1493687072510681090
Perused a few. Oh man…
Open hand slapping forehead emoji + bewilderment emoji.
How many are pulling their inheritances forward for these house acquisitions?
Poof goes the DP equity.
And then, not so much inheritance later.
(I have stories about parents leveraging for these DP gifts so this is another interesting twist.)
I just don’t understand. Who is buying these places for that obscene amount of money? Property developers? REIT investment firms? Shell companies? Surely not ordinary Canadians looking for a family home with a mortgage?? Our housing policies are really messed up. It used to be ‘forget buying a mansion. Be realistic and content with a humble starter home and work your way up the RE escalator.” That place is not a mansion.
Just a clarification – Pinewood is in a very nice neighbourhood. $3 million is insane but for context… This detached home would have been listed and gone for at least $1.8 million in the before COVID times. I sold my old row house right near it in 2019 – no parking, backed onto a high rise, and attached on both sides…. just over $1 million in 2019. It’s been nuts for a long time.
Wow, Garth, the price for 127 Pinewood is just surreal.
Full disclosure – I have lived for years just a couple streets away from this address.
The whole area is filled with lower educated, lower income families, many with illegal or just ugly basement apartments now, as few can afford even basic expenses, repairs and upgrades without taking in renters.
St Clair west was gutted thanks to the long delayed transit expansion years back, and is slowly recovering, mostly with – you guessed it – the building of overpriced, tiny condos on the main drag.
The SFH street environment is sketchy, with far too many violent incidents and murders along Vaughan Rd, Oakwood and St Clair. Not a safe place to let your kids hang out. You have to train them about when they are seeing drug transactions on the streets around there and how to get away quietly. The only local high school is notorious Oakwood Collegiate, and nobody local dares send their teens there if they can avoid it. Sadly, this leads to a lot of snooty parents driving their kids for miles everyday to go to second tier ‘elite’ schools, breaking more community connections.
Pinewood is just two streets away from where a sick dude tossed his wife off the balcony to her death a fews years ago on Raglan Ave. Lots of locations in the area are reminders of past murders and other serious crimes. 10-20 per year is normal around there.
All along St Clair, from Bathurst to past Dufferin, the bars and pubs and small restaurants are notorious hangout spots for local wannabee hometown mafia types. There have been numerous busts by Toronto Police for illegal gambling operations. Walking along the street in the summer there will fill your ears with aggressive, stupid, thug talk. You’ll wonder if you’re living in an episode of the Sopranos. To the north,along Eglinton is an even more troubled area, being thrown into further chaos by the long delayed Eglinton crosstown project shutting down businesses.
The neighbours I’ve had there have been often dealing with a lot of family drama and addiction issues. The people on both sides of my house there and across the street had all emigrated from Portugal and Italy forty of more years ago, but barely spoke English so we really couldn’t converse much. Little connection with any of them, unfortunately. But lots of leaf blowers and backyard yelling.
The area has little of interest to walk to, and is infested with illegally parked cars, trucks, and vans, people who warehouse their vehicles illegally for months on the road, on Pinewood, Rushton, Atlas and it gets even worse west across Oakwood to Conway, Glenholme, Northcliffe and other streets, filled with ugly unused vehicles and no law enforcement. It has been a disaster with the recent heavy snow, neighbourhoods that are almost impassable for cars now with all the leftover vehicles and snowbanks this last month.
The house prices around Pinewood, should they be $3
million!? Yikes, that’s even well above Leaside, where the average household income is about $300K – near Pinewood, it’s closer to 85K. That plus education levels is the best indicator of what kind of people are in your hood.
The house at 127 Pinewood was probably worth about $250K in reasonable times before the bubble started.
After the eventual correction, I’d say it could be worth $350-450K, but not much more.
People in areas like this just don’t get it – it’s not the bubble price of your house that matters, but the quality of your neighbours.
That’s why I cashed out and started renting a while back.
Good luck to the buyers – get yourself a high quality alarm system asap. And don’t go out walking at night without an emergency plan.
One of my golfing buddies just sold his 17 year old, 1800 sq. ft. rancher in Parksville BC for over ask, his ask was 1,075,000.00. 5 viewings on the first day, not sure on the final number but two were bidding at the end, sale closed in 12 hours. Trying to wrap my head around this house horny fever but is continues to roll on. Nuts, just insane.
Surprising that Canada haven’t seen some civil unrest…Oh wait, the truckers.
There is NO future for young people in Canada. NONE.
How about 4 bed, 4 bath on 2.3 acres 12 minutes from downtown Omaha, and of course right next to the majestic Missouri River for $600k?
Bike downtown to watch Warren and Charlie at the next 30 Berkshire shareholders meetings. Invite your friends. Spend a lifetime exploring the Missouri by canoe. Omaha has the greenest, lushest grass in the world. And pheasants. Oh boy, the pheasants.
Didn’t this blog call Peak House already in spring 2021? Gov came out today and said they will support the “mom and pop” investors. Tiff moving goalposts for rate hikes earlier this week. Gov will move heaven and earth to keep the party going.
The government did not say that, and the BoC moved no goalposts. – Garth
And the house…
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/20278-Old-Lincoln-Hwy-Council-Bluffs-IA-51503/76830716_zpid/
@#23 Daveyboy on 02.15.22 at 3:37 pm
What would that house rent out for?
–
probably chopped up into 6 little firetraps
going for $1200 each
#91 DON on 02.14.22 at 9:29 pm
Faron…easy goes it on Russ. He’s a good egg.
—
Good point. I re-read Russ’ comments and read too much of what the others were saying into his claim about comorbidities. I’m sorry Russ.
The contrarian view ,for the fun of it starting from the same premise that rates will go up and newly minted owners will go underwater .
Prices will go down at the beginning as some speculators will need to sell,vast majority of people will not as long as they can do the mortgage payments (maybe ranting a basement at evem more overpriced rents as people become more desperate due to lack of rentals in the short term ,AirBnB will be back, same as more immigrants and lateral movement).
Those that bought in the past 2 years have 3 years to mortgage renewal to worry about assessment in order to renew.
So most people in will not sell their SFH ‘s.
Now the interesting one will be the condos but given that everything here is presold I suspect a bunch will hit the market at once ,we will see maybe 6 mo ths of a small correction, then up we go again.
For over 30 years those that bet against RE in Canada have fared much worse in the long term ( remeber at a safe 4% drawdown on your return one needs a minimum 1 mil. portfolio to pay for a super crappy rental apartment) and I strongly doubt that our under siege govt. will risk aggravating the biggest block of voters a.k.a home owners.
Trudeau Word Salad Tweet on why Emergencies Act.
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1493687072510681090
+5,200 Comments. 1 hr. May well be a Cdn record.
Some Comments funny. Personal favorite, dictator to dictators:
https://twitter.com/O_20X/status/1493693344068911104
And of course Babylon Bee (fake news you can trust) not one to waste another golden Trudeau opportunity, giving Trucker and Galactic Empire Tips:
https://babylonbee.com/news/8-tips-for-keeping-money-safe-if-your-prime-minister-turns-out-to-be-a-fascist-lunatic
https://babylonbee.com/news/trudeau-reorganizes-canada-into-the-first-galactic-empire-for-a-safe-and-secure-society
——————-
One thing about Trudeau, he is not without controversy.
@#17 pPrasseur on 02.15.22 at 3:27 pm
Martial law powers for the PM when no a single shop window has been broken in 3 weeks.
Even with all the murders, violence and looting of the BML protests the US never went that far!
–
enforcing curfews, the US had the military out shooting rubber bullets at folks on their porches.
I believe ‘light ’em up’ was the term they used.
Wow Some crazy buyers out there. Good luck lol
T2 strikes again out of control. It was ok to burn churches?
In the US they were burning federal buildings hurting people NP your free to go. Trudeau has no support of we the people all over the globe.
Here’s a level headed trucker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_5Z2sHO4oU
Houses less than 40 minutes outside London (the real one in the UK, not the landfill near Detroit) can be bought for approx £320000 to £400000. Use xe.com to convert.
And we’re talking 40 minutes to what a real world class city has to offer, like, mmm history, culture, food, shopping
Canada has gone insane. I’d never thought would come a day when my relatives in Europe would laugh at us, but yep, it finally came. oh well, we will be able to travel soon.
I’m so happy I’m renting, which means I can up and go within a few weeks. The ‘proud’ owner of this 3 million dollar beauty can’t
Dare not besmirch the character of Forest Hill-adjacent property.
#115 Sail Away on 02.15.22 at 6:50 am
In good news [ I <3 Elon ]
—
It's really endearing, in a twelve-year-old-kid-who-believes-in-santa kinda way (which means both endearing and a little creepy) how Sail Away has made the evidence-less leap between the donated shares and the UN shenanigans that, as far as anyone knows, only ever existed on Twitter.
I'd give 3 in 4 odds that Elon did make this donation to the UN (likely more for tax purposes and PR) but there is no evidence. That is funny because Sail Away likes to ask people for evidence and logical facts when they make illogical leaps like this one. Yet he allows himself to fail at that. Integrity. Again.
An aside:
Because Sail Away announced that he has a dossier on me, I decided to download all of the comments so I would have my own record of what has transpired here. I used linux/bash, it took one line of code. Sorry for the bandwidth use Garth, if you tell me what 138Mb costs you to host, I will donate that to a charity of your choice or interac it directly to you.
One of the first interactions Sail Away had in this comments section was a claim that Trump has never implemented a racist policy. He demanded hard evidence. Tater quickly provided it by pointing at the Muslim ban. It was embarrassing for Sail Away. And now Sail Away is making baseless claims of his own. Oh how times have changed.
Anyhow, back to Elon. The parts that don't jive are that Elon is a small-government libertarian, so I would be surprised if he at all supported a liberal, big government program that the libertarians of the world love to hate. Second, donating to the UN Food Programme would be a massive PR freebie, so why not claim it? Thus far he hasn't even though he donated the shares in Q4, 2021. Hmmm.
So, the 1 in 4 odds against would be under the equally specious scenario that Elon set up a charitable organization as a tax shelter to which he donated the shares Donald Trump style. And, in time, he'll figure out a way to get that org to donate to Tesla thus both getting an income deduction tax benefit for donating the shares and a future benefit to himself.
Time will tell, but Sail Away once again has shed his integrity in the name of his obsession with a pseudo engineer.
Provinces seem to be ignoring science and listen to public opinion on lowering restrictions.
Only problem is, virus doesn’t really care about public opinion… So I fear that we will get a mass influx of hospitalizations, etc… forcing restrictions back, but harder… same as last time.
Free of emotion on this blog?
NAH! It’s chalk full of wingnuts, conspiracy theorists, the forever-frightened and people who have so little in their life they think the government is out to get “them” because THEY know better than everyone else.
Back to the question at hand… we decided we’re probably not going to buy this year and we’ll see how prices go when rates hit 5%
It’s just math. Prices MUST come down if rates go up.
If covid is soooo contagious, why isn’t everyone at the freedom convoy sick?
Alberta too cold?
#153 Barb on 02.15.22 at 3:28 pm
Affordable houses in Alberta?
Still doesn’t make up for an AB winter…bad enough in BC interior. But AB? Nope.
*********************************
You can dress for the cold. It’s bearable except when its under minus 30 with a wind which is thankfully rare. Minus 35 with even a little wind really bites, had that last year in February.
Tough it out for 20 years and by then you can afford an annual winter trip. Maui was real nice all this January!
We actually don’t get much snow in Edmonton. And the summers don’t have many rainy days. But true, you do not come to Alberta for the weather. You come for good jobs and it features lower house prices.
To each her own. Choices…consequences.
#40 Dominoes Lining Up
“Good luck to the buyers – get yourself a high quality alarm system asap. And don’t go out walking at night without an emergency plan.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
And that’s without mentioning the peeping toms and b&e artists roaming around backyards and alleys at night there.
One good ground floor security plan in that hood without being obvious would be and is, to build a sub-frame around your windows large enough to hang a closed set of curtains in the window giving off a normal looking subterfuge from the outside. Then board off the window attaching the boards to the newly constructed extended frame around the entire window inside. Then you put up another set of curtains over that to give off an appearance of normalcy from the inside.
As the world gets weirder and weirder. And the stomach churns in some and turns in others with each new insane house sale price increase.
I knew a guy named Dom from that neighborhood many years back.
@#52 sailedaway on 02.15.22 at 4:48 pm
I’m so happy I’m renting, which means I can up and go within a few weeks. The ‘proud’ owner of this 3 million dollar beauty can’t
–
proud owner is probably going to rebuild the place and flip for 5mil.
#17 pPrasseur on 02.15.22 at 3:27 pm
Welcome back Garth!
Tomorrow’s January inflation rate is announced. Anyone think it will be over 5%??
Let the Neighbours Cash out too
#40 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.15.22 at 4:15 pm
Wow, Garth, the price for 127 Pinewood is just surreal.
Full disclosure – I have lived for years just a couple streets away from this address.
The whole area is filled with lower educated, lower income families, many with illegal or just ugly basement apartments now, as few can afford even basic expenses, repairs and upgrades without taking in renters.
*****************************
Would be great to see lower educated lower income probably hard working people cash out big if their houses have become insanely valuable.
They can retire to a lower cost place with the proceeds – like maybe Beverly Hills. Worked for “old Jed”
As the vaxxed die-off continues(Major insurance companies in the US are already showing a 40% increased mortality rate in non-covid deaths in 2021)
There will be a immense increase in listings. 2022-2023 Real-estate will be Biggest bust in history- next to the bond market.
Every time in history rates have fallen, houses got more expensive. That happened in spades when Covid came to town. History also shows when rates rise, house prices are hit. People can carry less debt, after all. So will this inverse rate-price relationship hold firm again, or be broken for the first time ever? If so, we are in deep trouble.
————-
True enough for SFH since interest rates (and emotions) are the largest contributors to their selling price.
That’s why you want to hold REITs. Investment properties are valuated by their ROI or cap rate. Since less people will be able to afford to carry heavy mortgages, demand for multi-unit housing will be extremely strong. Not to mention they locked in the lowest financing costs ever offered, for as long as they could which reduces the long term ownefship costs of operating properties.
Despite what many think, properly managed REITs can thrive tbru pediods of rising interest rates. And if the economy is healthy, they will be able to increase rents.
That house looks okay, it would sell here in Saskatoon for about 10% of that price!
Riverfront detached houses here in Saskatoon, decked out with floor to ceiling windows, underground parking garages, rooftop patios, that overlook the downtown core cost about $3M.
People say “but who would want to live there??”
You should see our company’s Indeed applications. 90% are from the GTA. The young people want out of that loonyville, and are wiling to deal with some cold winters if it means they can afford a decent life.
#53 [email protected]
“Dare not besmirch the character of Forest Hill-adjacent property.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Never!
Mansions most can only ever dream of owning there !
But you still have the city all around it, like Vaughn rd and Pinecrest to the west.
Then there’s always Spadina village in between.
Not too shabby !
Covid may not be over. It’s entirely possible that we may be victims of another variant, which could even be worse than what we’ve had previously. God, I hope not. But just because we do away with mandates doesn’t mean that things are going to be “normal”. We may be playing make believe.
I’m good to go. I’ve transferred all my emotions into schadenfreude. Bring on the victims.
Well I certainly don’t have all of the answers but I do think that housing issues need to be #1 priority – if people can’t afford to live there is going to be more rioting on the streets
I am starting to see ALOT of anti-immigration sentiment (whether it makes sense or not is besides the point) by even well educated, tolerant people as they worry about the effect that more newcomers will have on the already limited housing supply
Maybe we need to rethink the usage of houses that we have. Many vacant. There are lots of single family houses on my street that occupy a total of 1 person. Sometimes 2-3. Many immigrant families are happy to live about 10 to these houses, but it’s considered so far from our cultural norm that nobody will rent to them (but they still want $5K/mo). I am seeing tons of newcomers pack 7-9 people in two-bedroom apartments so IDK maybe that’s what they’ll continue to do
We really need a plan here
I fear we will have another couple years of FOMO as rates increase. People will get pre-approved before a rate increase then panic buy anything before their pre-approval expires. Then a new group of people get pre-approved at the higher interest rate and panic buy before their pre-approval expires. And so on with each increase in rates. Add to this the upward price pressure new Liberal programs like the FHSA and prices, unbelievably, could spike higher. At the level if housing debt people are carrying God help Canada if we ever have a severe recession or interest rates reach long run normal levels. Not even the Liberals could subsidize their way out.
Just out of curiosity… what would be a property tax per year on that property and insurance? Anybody?
Garth is still pushing the false narrative of higher interest rates and falling home prices in spite of evidence to the contrary. Interest rates will not substantially increase and we’ll be in another recession by 2025 and rates will be dropped again. We will never see 5% interest rates or falling house prices. There are too many vested interests wanting to keep house prices elevated. Add in increased immigration with those people placing huge value in home ownership and prices are not declining.
All around increasing costs to carry with spiralling upward moving inflation will be the undoing of many newbie home buyers soon enough going into 2023 and 24.
Looking at 127 pinewood on Housesigma. The taxes for the home are only 6646 a year. Out here in Portland Oregon, a home at that cost , is around 28k a year in taxes. There is no way that this will end well.
I’ve been waiting for it to get better for over a decade.
Fundamentals left the building a long time ago, so its hard to see how it will revert back there…..
On the ground in TO…. Friends in the game feel stuck in what they got. Not a bad thing, at least they got on board.
For the rest of us who missed the boat. Hopeless doesn’t even begin to describe what it feels like. I have friends in IB and even they are having trouble breaking into the market. And they are the poster children for high salaries and ‘success’.
With 400k immigrants inbound(per year) and lack of supply…. we would need a miracle to put the flames out.
Why is Canada’s Covid death rate so much lower than US?
From the BBC
Far more Americans were ending up in intensive care as well. Last month during the Omicron wave, the number peaked at nearly 79 per million when Canada’s was 32 per million.
“That has to be a function of healthcare systems. [Canada] is intervening quicker, and in different ways, than the US,” Dr Cameron said. “That’s where severe cases are ending up when other approaches and interventions have failed.”
The availability of universal health insurance is the “simplest” explanation for Canada’s lower infections and deaths, said Ross Upshur, a professor of public health at the University of Toronto.
“Most Canadians would not swap the health system we have, with all its faults, for the US system,” he said.
For those who like charts and stats go here:
https://apple.news/AjFM8wsqiSeeoGMo6sTbwdQ
Pinewood- good luck getting a conventional mortgage for 75% of the purchase price. No appraiser worth their salt is going to ascribe a value of $3 million.
A great example of a buyer who lost their mind (and shirt) in their quest for dirt amidst mindless bidding.
I’m sure some saw this.
My friends and family are drivers. Not racists as T2s proposes with his propaganda.
As he sends a half billion to the Ukraine. (Not our fight and were broke)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQIW-80Irf0
The utterly pedestrian house of just 1,800 square feet at Number 127 was listed for an eye-watering $2.4 million. It sold. The same day. For $3,000.000. Plus $123,000 in land transfer tax. Here it is… -GT
—
It is obviously looking absolute stupidity at first right, but then
The first question is this: Can this be just explained with FOMO or low interest rates?
The second question is: Why would anyone give $3M to this piece of crap?
And there is definitely someone who purchased that for some valid reason not listed in this blog post…
#18 Howard on 02.15.22 at 3:28 pm
I don’t subscribe to the Globe so I can’t see this paywalled-article, but apparently Canada’s housing minister just told landlords that he won’t do anything to “harm” them (i.e. will never let RE prices decline).
Basically a green light for investors to grab what they can and non-owners to panic, exactly what Garth just said not to do.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-government-doesnt-want-to-harm-mom-and-pop-real-estate-investors/
********
So we are just reading the headlines and assuming?
#48 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 02.15.22 at 4:42 pm
The contrarian view ,for the fun of it starting from the same premise that rates will go up and newly minted owners will go underwater .
Prices will go down at the beginning as some speculators will need to sell,vast majority of people will not as long as they can do the mortgage payments (maybe ranting a basement at evem more overpriced rents as people become more desperate due to lack of rentals in the short term ,AirBnB will be back, same as more immigrants and lateral movement).
Those that bought in the past 2 years have 3 years to mortgage renewal to worry about assessment in order to renew…
********
Is the assumption that everyone had a fixed term mortgage?
DELETED
#31 ‘BC’ – What is your point? That the potential increase to resale value of your landlord’s property doesn’t justify increasing your rent? Also, why complain about the rent increase being higher than the legislated amount if you aren’t going to do anything about it?
#23 Daveyboy on 02.15.22 at 3:37 pm
What would that house rent out for?
———
Took a look on MLS (icky) and saw one house for rent just West of Pinewood at 55 Atlas Ave: $3,990/month (I wonder why the floors at 55 Atlas are covered in water).
Just plugged in $3 million home price minus 20% downpayment, 2.50% interest rate over 30 year amortization. Monthly mortgage payment: $9,467/month. That’s just the mortgage payment. Nothing else.
Does anyone feel the urge to poo or projectile vomit?
#54 Faron on 02.15.22 at 4:59 pm
Because Sail Away announced that he has a dossier on me, I decided to download all of the comments so I would have my own record of what has transpired here. I used linux/bash, it took one line of code. Sorry for the bandwidth use Garth, if you tell me what 138Mb costs you to host, I will donate that to a charity of your choice or interac it directly to you.
/////////////////
Faron it’s a full moon.
Notice the trend?
Back on August 1st 2017 I postulated via a post here that a single detached bungalow in my home town (Oakville) maybe upto 3.5M in 25 years… geez, I was way off.
————————————————————————————————
Can an average bungalow in Oakville be worth 3.5M in 25 years, maybe.
70’s 30-90K
80’s 90-220K
90’s 160-270K
00’s 270-450K
10’s 400-1200K
20’s 900-2300K
30’s 1700-3400K
Not sure who to blame.
The TO house that went for 3 million will sell for 6 million in five years time. Inflation will not end with a measly one or two percent interest rate increase over the next two years. To stop inflation interest rates should already be at 15%. The FED wants inflation and they said they will not crash assets. The game is rigged and the game will continue.
Yes, let’s all go and “buy” a mouldy heap that needs another 2.5 million thrown at it in order to be minimally habitable.
What could be wrong with that?
#72 Ifriend on 02.15.22 at 5:41 pm
Just out of curiosity… what would be a property tax per year on that property and insurance? Anybody?/
////////////
Property tax around $8,000- $10,000.
Insurance maybe $1200-$1500
#50 KLNR #61 Faron
No US martial law was invoke to crush BML, the (very real) violence was dealt with as needed wherever things got insufferable for local authorities…
As opposed to Canada as a whole declaring martial law basically for one peaceful protest in Ottawa. This is ridiculous and a dangerous precedent.
Next time the “unacceptable views” maybe yours… we’ll see how casual you stay about it then!
#77 Ponzius Pilatus
““That has to be a function of healthcare systems. [Canada] is intervening quicker, and in different ways, than the US,””
Does anybody in their right mind believe that?
BTW Quebec which had the most severe restrictions in North America got about the same death rate as the US.
Canadian state monopoly health care is a giant waiting list, the worse system in the developed world, this pandemic has proven it beyond any doubt.
#5 don’t poke the bear- Conspiracy Alert!! Global leaders of tomorrow graduates of the World Economic Forum and Herr Claus Schwab:
Tony Blair
Angela Merkel
Bono
Richard Branson
Vladimir Putin
Justin Trudeau
aaaand Crystia Freeland
God help us
For the LOVE of Larry, can we please stop the GUESSING at future interest rates pricing?
We know what they should do, want to do, etc BUT can they?
There are a zillion and 1 factors that influence their decision and by the hour they seem to change.
Live life, take a risk…no one has a flying clue what March will bring.
The ONLY sure thing is oil prices going UP and ALL of us will feel the impact.
Ottawa police chief resigns….surprise, he wasn’t indecisive at all, maybe he was, not sure, surprised he hasn’t recanted it then resigned again….
I’m not indecisive I just can’t decide….
#117 NoName on 02.15.22 at 7:38 am
#114 Howard on 02.15.22 at 6:16 am
Easier sad than done…i spent twice as much than i consumed, hungry every day to loose only 20lbs.
But on a bright note my blood work looks like i am athleete rady to compeete on olympicks.
—
This is exactly what I’m talking about regarding how callous it is to disclaim COVID deaths when people have “co morbidities”. We don’t know what you weigh, but if you are visibly overweight, someone like Howard would have resigned you to the COVID dustbin despite the fact that there is literally no health consequence to a broad range of weights from slightly under to over weight. And, at the extreme ends, being underweight is almost as risky as being over weight.
As you say, NoName, your blood work is impeccable. I bet you will live to a fine old age yet if you were to die from COVID Howard would shrug and say “well, he had pre-existing co morbidities”. It’s gross man.
#90 Full Moon Faron on 02.15.22 at 6:34 pm
Hi Penny, I thought you were banned?
I just feel that FOMO is fuelled by the media. I can easily find articles about how a smiling couple who bought their dream home after deciding to pay 6 figures over asking.
If speculation is gasoline then the Realtor industry holds the match stick that can easily engulf prices the moment they publish an article about prices going up and up and up.
“Government doesn’t want to harm ‘mom and pop’ real estate investors, housing minister says”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-government-doesnt-want-to-harm-mom-and-pop-real-estate-investors/
There you have it. The Liberals side with speculators. Protecting and increasing the gains of wealthy speculators and foreign investors is the priority. There is not a care in the world for housing affordability for Canadians, nor of the ramifications that will have for the real economy going forward.
Young people – get out while you can. This country has totally forsaken you. They’re not even hiding it now. The birth rate is going to plummet and tens if not hundreds of thousands will emigrating from this country that is so outwardly hostile to young people. Look for immigration to be a million a year in less than 10 years to compensate – gotta keep a steady flow of future renters to live 10 to a 1 bedroom apartment in order to keep “mom and pop” happy. As an added bonus, they’ll keep wages down, leading to lower real costs for employees! Win win!
I will never vote Liberal ever again. I have never seen this level of downright malicious and/or incompetence. We’re all in this together, my behind. It’s a party of virtue signalers – while society crumbles in front of them. Just mind boggling and tragic.
Looks like the average house will be north of $1M by this time next year.
It’s no longer T2.
His name is T4
Written in the dirt of a white pick up truck on a Vancouver street.
“Trudeau The T******* Tickler”
#86 Full Moon Faron on 02.15.22 at 6:21 pm
#54 Faron on 02.15.22 at 4:59 pm
One line of code Penny. I put random sleeps in it so as not to clog up Garth’s bandwidth. From there, finding individual posts is a cake walk. Maybe 15 minutes invested to protect against a guy who has been assembling a dossier on me for months. MAD has worked for nuclear relations between the armed states and I presume it will work with Sail Away. If he escalates, I’ll build a keyword searchable database and post it on sailawaysagoof.com.
I also calculated comment frequency. Sorry Crowdy, you win the prize. Ponz, you take second (these are years 2019 through 2022). Sail Away outcomments me by 10 to 20 %. Maybe check your full-moon stats there guy.
#5 don’t poke the bear on 02.15.22 at 2:51 pm
i just wonder what the conspiracy theorists will complain about next. economy opening up. mandates dropped. masks eventually will come off.. bill gates didn’t inject them with a microchip. the great reset didn’t happen..
what new tragedy will befall us? can’t wait…
==============================
Its ain’t the push of a button.
Cell phones 10X better than a chip. I built those networks.
Maybe you own Alexa?
Google has more information on you than the NSA (US side)
More laws, More regulations and oversight. That’s the deal.
I have to register my well? Why?
Now all my RE holdings to satisfy I’m not money laundering! See LOTA and $4000 to my lawyer.
Every year the paper work gets WAAAY thicker and oh more expensive.
Its called Tyranny any way you slice it.
While the power to be listen less to the people.
That why peeps are pissed.
Many news casters US side calling T2 a dumb dumb right on the Telly. Their finally getting on my page. lol
RE_Investor
You could have bought in 2017 in the Applefield Dr neighbourhood of Scarborough for $900k
where?
Does ANYONE IN THE WORLD really think interest rates are going to rise how enough to blow up the stock market OR KEEP printing to infinity..
If they blow up the stock market and housing markets WHO I ask WHO is going to be responsible for taking care of the masses hurt by this?
The 1% won’t. You and I can’t. The government? Where would they get the $$$$? BY PRINTING.
Play the players, not the reality.
Most pre-constructed condos are getting snapped up by investors in one day pushing out any normal person that just wants to buy one for themselves, add 410,000 new Canadians arriving in 2022, and one third will land in GTA (the equivalent of adding Oakville Ontario every year)…..where will they live ??
US 30y mortgages. Our THOUGHTS & PRAYERS are with those who have recently bought property with little equity, above asking price. Chart @PPGMacro
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1493563057481650176
#99 Concerned Citizen on 02.15.22 at 7:08 pm
===========================
Yes your getting it.
50% of marriages in Canada eventually end up in divorce. Why shack up and pay a multi-million dollar mortgage for 25 years to end up worse off than where you started. One party wins, YOU LOSE.
#91 pPrasseur on 02.15.22 at 6:35 pm
Next time the “unacceptable views” maybe yours… we’ll see how casual you stay about it then!
—
You mean like RCMP coming out in full tactical gear (camo, flak jackets, assault rifles, shields) to shoo a group of unarmed first nations people off of a blockade being held on their own land?
Or the RCMP who $9 million in taxpayer dollars on an operation to clear a crowd of hippies off of a forestry road on Vancouver Island making numerous arrests and then dropping arrestees off in the middle of nowhere with no equipment to fend for themselves? Yeah, it sucks. With protest comes consequence. Whining about the consequences of the freedumber’s actions is disingenuous.
#99 concerned citizen
Already happening. “International students” are working in those warehouses and factories for minimum wage. Next will be international students doing welding, plumbing and construction jobs for minimum wage.
The public sector has hired “international students” to work in the hospitals and municipal offices, which can explain why Canadians are getting threatening scam calls from Asia.
For sure there are some rich immigrants who come to this iceberg for greater business opportunities.
But most come here with 6 months of living expenses.
Their impact is minimal on price appreciation.
To keep the ponzi scheme going you need new entrants, with the means to pay.
No matter how much supply is suppressed by the local civic politicians, and no matter how artificially low interest rates are set by federal politicians, at some point, whether by political backlash, or economic forces, the housing market will crash.
#101 Faron
I also calculated comment frequency. Sorry Crowdy, you win the prize. Ponz, you take second (these are years 2019 through 2022). Sail Away outcomments me by 10 to 20 %. Maybe check your full-moon stats there guy.
———————
Darn it!
CEF outposted me again.
But it’s quality over quantity.
And I have to say, my Full-Moon posts are my best.
#103 All lies and manipulated on 02.15.22 at 7:30 pm
Many news casters US side calling T2 a dumb dumb right on the Telly. Their finally getting on my page. lol
———————
Yeah,
“Trucker” Carlson hates him.
JT is just more handsome.
#11 Wrk.dover on 02.15.22 at 3:08 pm
If you get an interest free loan, that house is only ten thousand a month for twenty five years.
$327.87/day. plus plus!
———————————————-
The problem with this calculation is that people assume the price of the house will keep going up, such that when they sell in 25 years they will get $6 million. Thus, by that reasoning, they are making $328 per day.
Real estate will always have some residual value (unless it is in Detroit). So it is not quite the same thing as say a car where the value when you are done paying it off after 96 months is quite close to zero as compared to what you paid for it.
We are moving out to Bridgewater area and my inlaws want us to buy asap site unseen, my spouse is also leaning that way. They are afraid we will miss out as we chose not to buy years ago and it keeps going up past what out incomes will allow. I figure we wait and see, I rather have money to retire and rent then be house poor the next two decades. Sadly buy now seems to be all I hear from everyone and buy it as an investment at the very least. Hard to keep them at bay. I remember the last time housing crashed, my parents almost lost everything all at the same time my oldest brother died. Makes pulling the trigger a little more sobering when you have seen how crushing life can be.
# 76 enthalpy
“I’ve been waiting for it to get better for over a decade.
Fundamentals left the building a long time ago, so its hard to see how it will revert back there”…..
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Its the Fed with their corrupt monetary policies the last decade that reflect on the BoC doing the same that has come down to the insanity of a $3 million dollar purchase for a dump like that one, cockroaches (big ones) included… on Pinewood.
Now I am really starting to laugh at the number of ill-informed on this message board who have so obviously never once looked into the inner workings of the Fed.
More so in the way they speak as if in the hands of the Fed all will be worked out. Wow!
What fools.
The corrupt Fed has only lies left to tell and is all there is left for them to prop up their continued existence after 12 years of creating this whacked delusional world around us.
North America is headed straight for economic meltdown, no two ways about it and the sheep turned lemmings are headed for the cliff.
I sympathize with those who long for simpler times.
The world is not laughing at Canada but doing the opposite, lamenting the loss of a once great country that many of us from different countries fell in love with long ago.
#73 beaner on 02.15.22 at 5:44 pm
Garth is still pushing the false narrative of higher interest rates and falling home prices in spite of evidence to the contrary. Interest rates will not substantially increase and we’ll be in another recession by 2025 and rates will be dropped again. We will never see 5% interest rates or falling house prices. There are too many vested interests wanting to keep house prices elevated. Add in increased immigration with those people placing huge value in home ownership and prices are not declining.
—- –
You’re not totally wrong, but you’re not looking at the big picture. If the Fed raises, eventually so will we. Canada is nothing on the world stage. If you want to know where we’re headed, watch the Fed, and the ECB. Will Canadians be content to buy dumps like this pinewood shitbox when a bag of milk costs 15.00?
Canada is in a world of trouble. Trudeau let it get to the point where it’s out of our control. Now we’re just along for the ride. All those vested interests you mention will be getting their asses kicked despite Trudeau’s best efforts to pump the gasbag. The only other option is 10.00/lb chicken and 12.00 cauliflower.
#15 Joseph R on 02.15.22 at 3:25 pm
#8 Neo on 02.15.22 at 2:54 pm
“Your traitorous corrupt puppet government plans to create over 440,000 new people this year and they cant live outside”
———————————————————
The government doesn’t create people; people create people.
————————————————–
Are you part of the 25%? It was clear, to me anyway, that Neo was questioning current immigration levels when the people who are here now can’t find a decent paying job and can’t afford a place to live even if they have a decent paying job.
Current immigration targets are based on economic projections that are no longer valid.
Seems jobs are not the problem. Finding workers is. – Garth
@#113 Perturbed Ponzie Pretend Playtime.
“CEF outposted me again.
But it’s quality over quantity.”
++++
Yes you do tend to ramble on.
Vino + Full Moons = DELETED.
#Beaner
That’s right! Adam Vaughan told Canadians on TVO that he will ensure that the foreign investors get their YoY returns on Canadian real estate. This includes the dictator from a third world country or the Russian oil barons.
In France, politicians like Adam Vaughan would be guillotined in the Champs D’ Ellysees.
He did not say that. – Garth
@#117 willworkforpickles on 02.15.22 at 8:11 pm
# 76 enthalpy
“I’ve been waiting for it to get better for over a decade.
Fundamentals left the building a long time ago, so its hard to see how it will revert back there”…..
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Its the Fed with their corrupt monetary policies the last decade that reflect on the BoC doing the same that has come down to the insanity of a $3 million dollar purchase for a dump like that one, cockroaches (big ones) included… on Pinewood.
Now I am really starting to laugh at the number of ill-informed on this message board who have so obviously never once looked into the inner workings of the Fed.
More so in the way they speak as if in the hands of the Fed all will be worked out. Wow!
What fools.
The corrupt Fed has only lies left to tell and is all there is left for them to prop up their continued existence after 12 years of creating this whacked delusional world around us.
North America is headed straight for economic meltdown, no two ways about it and the sheep turned lemmings are headed for the cliff.
I sympathize with those who long for simpler times.
The world is not laughing at Canada but doing the opposite, lamenting the loss of a once great country that many of us from different countries fell in love with long ago.
____________________
lol you tell ’em pickles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqE9TS4jsJM
DELETED
But realistically how low would any correction actually go? I have been in the Lower Mainland since 2006, and reading this blog since 2007 or so. To get to an affordable price
range here, it would need to be double-digit declines, for multiple years, before the market approached sane levels again.
#109 Quintilian on 02.15.22 at 7:57 pm
For sure there are some rich immigrants who come to this iceberg for greater business opportunities.
But most come here with 6 months of living expenses.
Their impact is minimal on price appreciation.
To keep the ponzi scheme going you need new entrants, with the means to pay.
No matter how much supply is suppressed by the local civic politicians, and no matter how artificially low interest rates are set by federal politicians, at some point, whether by political backlash, or economic forces, the housing market will crash.
—- –
More big picture required. TFW’s, Immigrants, and international students all fuel the rental market which is being supplied largely by Mom and Pop “investors”. Indeed the newcomers aren’t buying homes – of course not – they’re renting. You can call it “trickle up” economics. A City of Brampton inspection found 20… TWENTY international students renting in a single SFD. Under the table tax free, bro. Do the math. As long as this kind of stuff is allowed to carry on, there is room for prices to grow in places like the GTA and GVRD.
You can thank Trudeau…
#5 don’t poke the bear on 02.15.22 at 2:51 pm
i just wonder what the conspiracy theorists will complain about next …
——
Remind me again next year at this same bat time, same bat channel how “over” all of this is.
See ya then
CT
4 Alberta border protesters charged with conspiring to murder RCMP officers.
There is a poster here who some of you adore but he has an issue with me posting links, gets triggered and posts recipes where he specifies white bread.
So, C&P the first sentence into Bing to read the full story. Good Alberta boys, all of them.
Recall Howard having a conniption fit on me back prior to the last election when I put forth the proposition that US style tactics were being imported into Canada.
And here we are…Truckers? Not so much. White Supremacists, Proud Boys, Oathkeepers and more. The truckers and their adherents got duped and used, not unlike many posting on here.
#8 Neo
Stop crying and leave already. This country has enough whiners as it is.
# 31 and 84 ‘BC’ – What is your point? That the potential increase to resale value of your landlord’s property doesn’t justify increasing your rent? Also, why complain about the rent increase being higher than the legislated amount if you aren’t going to do anything about it?
———————
Perhaps you haven’t had to rent in decades Linda, and so have no understanding or empathy with the situation this family is in.
Mom and Pop Landlord increases rent by way above the allowed limit. There are very few rentals available. If the family challenges the increase with the rental board, there will likely be reprisals; renoviction, other BS, etc.., which will force them out in the end. Perhaps a good idea to fight it anyway with the rental board, but there will likely be blowback. If they are forced out, it might prove very difficult to find a comparable rental. This is what happens when the rental market is tight. (go look up the dire situation in Victoria).
I fully realize that the nuances of all of this are beyond what you might have experienced in the past 3 decades.
P
Chrystia Freeland, member of the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum and Finance Minister of Canada said Tuesday that her government would be “broadening the scope of Canada’s anti money laundering and terrorist financing rules so that they cover crowd-funding platforms and the payment service providers they use. These changes cover all forms of transactions, including digital assets such as crypto-currencies. The illegal blockades have highlighted the fact that crowd-funding platforms and some of the payment service providers they use are not fully captured under the proceeds of crime and terrorist financing act.”
People are speculating whether the actions taken by Freeland are being used to further the agenda outlined in policy by the World Economic Forum as part of the digital authoritarian goals of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. The clampdown on crypto-currency may be being used in order to create a new central bank digital currency.
There are enough outrages in the world to fret over without having to fabricate new ones. The Fintrac and AML widening to crowdfunding and cryptos makes perfect sense. – Garth
Garth, I really hope you’re right on this one. Real people come to this blog and look for real advice, and the consequences of that have real impacts on their lives.
Maybe my gen is crazy and full of house lust. But affording a house, starting a family and living a modest life doesn’t seem all that bad to have if you live next to it….better than the slum shack with 12 students pouring out of it.
Last Friday, Goldman Sachs revised its 2022 Fed forecast. They now anticipate seven rate hikes of 25 basis points each for every Federal Reserve meeting left in 2022. Bank of America predicts the same. Why does this matter? Higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs… don’t forget Garth’s stat of 50%+ Canadians taking VRMs in the last 24 months.
#128 A J on 02.15.22 at 9:42 pm
#8 Neo
Stop crying and leave already. This country has enough whiners as it is.
==================
Not really just need to boot the management out.
If they were accountable for their actions and I mean it hit their own personal wallets boy you would see a different country.
If I was incompetent as you know who Id resign.
Fortunately I’m accountable and we are flush with cash in my Opps as I don’t have tax payers to bleed to death at will.
Hopefully we can turn this train wreck around but unfortunately its getting worse before it gets better.
Didn’t you know your a socialist’s?
Good luck with that pee poor attitude.
I always read TI cause there’s always some great advice.
Never stop learning.
We’ve entered a time where big lies make us more than enough money so all truth be damned.
Let the Fed go on lying as long as they keep making us big RE profits and big money in the stock markets.
Never-mind the monstrous bubbles growing with them.
Just keep in mind…the bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash .
Forget all the justification regarding nothing more than a soft landing. They’re just lies too.
Mainstream double-speak blinded and deceived.
You’re ok for now…you just don’t want any part of later.
Just did this personality test Ms IH linked up. I got ENTJ, I guess I should be the CEO of GM, but I might be a sob of a boss… looking at the “sample results”, it seems pretty bang on:
Your energy style is Extraversion (in contrast with Introversion). This dimension describes how you manage your energy.
Your Energy Style:
Lively
Energetic
Quick-Witted
Clever
Your cognitive style is Intuition (in contrast with Sensing). This dimension describes how you process information.
Your Cognitive Style:
Inventive
Imaginative
Entrepreneurial
Futuristic
Your values style is Thinking (in contrast with Feeling). This dimension describes your orientation to personal values.
Your Values Style:
Analytical
Logical
Objective
Unsentimental
Your life style is Perceiving (in contrast with Judging). This dimension describes how you organize your life.
Your Life Style:
Open-Minded
Adaptable
Spontaneous
Changeable
Take the test! :
https://www.truity.com/test/type-finder-personality-test-new
Connect the Dots.
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/new-brunswick-man-made-75-000k-donation-to-freedom-convoy-1.5782549
#18 Howard on 02.15.22 at 3:28 pm I don’t subscribe to the Globe so I can’t see this paywalled-article, but apparently Canada’s housing minister just told landlords that he won’t do anything to “harm” them (i.e. will never let RE prices decline).
^^^^ Err I would flip that statement 180 degrees to make sense.
In late 2019 the “Minister of Middle Class Prosperity” [sic] was coined, How’d that work out — as we face double-digit inflationary pressure of food, rent, insurance, used cars; more karbon taxes incoming; the “non essential” people were denied work for up to 2 years.
— Flip this 180 degrees:
https://twitter.com/Breaking_NewsCA/status/1493467856775704576
“Trudeau voiced support for farmers in India who blocked major highways to New Delhi for more than a year in 2021, saying at the time: “Canada will always be there to defend the right of peaceful protest”
—
— Control over Travel. Israel? That place already on it’s 4th?
.CDC adds Japan and Israel to ‘very high’ COVID risk category, warns travelers to ‘avoid’ 130+ countries(usatoday.com)
—Attn. serfs your new tiny State kandos are ready
https://www.blogto.com/city/2022/02/quayside-waterfront-toronto/
“If you were disappointed to see the previous plan…the new plan is a sight for sore eyes.”
Approaching the two-year anniversary of the shelving of Sidewalk Labs’ controversial neighbourhood of the future, Toronto is getting a first taste of the jaw-dropping development….
#40 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.15.22 at 4:15 pm
Wow, Garth, the price for 127 Pinewood is just surreal.
Full disclosure – I have lived for years just a couple streets away from this address.
The whole area is filled with lower educated, lower income families, many with illegal or just ugly basement apartments now, as few can afford even basic expenses, repairs and upgrades without taking…
——————————————
Well, I must congratulate you. It takes a really big person to decide to slum it with the uneducated, low income folks. So, which basement are you renting…the illegal or the ugly one?
#127 Ustabe on 02.15.22 at 9:26 pm
4 Alberta border protesters charged with conspiring to murder RCMP officers.
There is a poster here who some of you adore but he has an issue with me posting links, gets triggered and posts recipes where he specifies white bread.
So, C&P the first sentence into Bing to read the full story. Good Alberta boys, all of them.
Recall Howard having a conniption fit on me back prior to the last election when I put forth the proposition that US style tactics were being imported into Canada.
And here we are…Truckers? Not so much. White Supremacists, Proud Boys, Oathkeepers and more. The truckers and their adherents got duped and used, not unlike many posting on here.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I wonder where those 2000 guns stolen in Peterborough ended up.
“Seems jobs are not the problem. Finding workers is. – Garth”
I was kind of referring to “decent paying jobs” that might lead one to be able to afford a house. I know, I know, with house prices doing what they are doing it’s hard to fault the job market, at least solely. But even if we take jobs out of the equation, I think the point still stands that more immigrants is a tough call when we don’t have enough housing for the people that are already here and can’t seem to do anything about it (i.e. build more). As others have pointed out, they have to live somewhere.
And yes, I know, the Canadian population is not replacing itself, so some immigration is necessary to just stay at our current population. But to target growth when we have an absolutely out of control housing crisis seems counter-productive.
And it’s not like we don’t have a large percentage of people who are “not in the workforce”. Maybe they would be if there was any point to working. But if you have to live in a van or your parent’s basement either way, maybe it’s better to just get your CERB.
I think it is fairly possible that the CERB experiment will end up proving once and for all that if you pay people to not work, then not work is what they will do. Especially if working offers no material upgrade to their lifestyle. You can’t afford a house either way.
John Pasalis said today on BNN that:
“Ontario is only building about 65k homes per year and to get to 150k per year is not possible.”
“The reality is that these imbalances we are having right now is because policy makers decided to push our population growth a lot faster than our ability to build homes and that is a challenge because housing supply cannot accelerate as quickly as our population growth.”
“What they needed to be doing was setup this task force 10 years ago, figure out the supply problem and then accelerate our population growth, but they are doing things backwards right now.”
Consciously I might add…and he is absolutely right.
The Federal Government of Canada in partnership with the BoC and the big banks have always been the ones behind the housing game and they will never let it fail. This is their bread and butter. And it trickles down to the provincial and municipal levels who play their owns games to squeeze it even more for their piece of the pie.
And Trudeau keeps telling millennial voters he is going to make housing more affordable!
This market has turned into a frankemonster and it is far from over, but we are going to see straight lines going up and down and all over the place now that housing is a volatile investment vehicle the will perpetually rise in value over the long term – because big banks.
BTW, has anyone seen the price of lumber? Speaking of a bitcoin chart – after a historic crash like a few months ago, lumber is right back up in a straight-line flirting with a new record – wow!
I bought a house in Pilger, Saskatchewan before Christmas. Listed for $35k. Made an offer for $25k cash no conditions, they took the deal. I’ll spend about $5k in minor fixes then move in this spring.
All in monthly expenses including utilities, insurance and taxes = under $500 a month.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/15/as-turkeys-inflation-rate-climbs-workers-strike-for-pay-hikes
So Turkey lowered rates in the face of inflation. Now inflation is surging and some workers are getting 32% pay increases.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/economy/january-inflation-producer-prices/index.html
9.7 % producer price index
Doesn’t look like inflation will be over by April. Perhaps the blog dog who left the comment would like to reconsider.
Synch your watches Putin attacks Ukraine on Wednesday…emotional news readers are standing by with a breaking news play by play.
DELETED
I always laugh when the Canadians try to “quell” housing prices. There are a few solutions – but one I always think about is a proper speculation tax.
Here in Switzerland – the tax is 100% of the gain unless you have held the property for 5 years. That’s right – you cannot make any gain unless you held it for 5 years. Then it is a sliding scale – and it also applies to your principal residence (but you can get roll over if you move and buy again).
You could also – for example – expropriate 100% of the properties owned by foreigners in Canada. Give them 2 years notice to sell into the market or be forced to sell by way of Government action at the end of that time. That will create some serious supply pretty quick.
@#130 Einstein Island
“These changes cover all forms of transactions, including digital assets such as crypto-currencies. The illegal blockades have highlighted the fact that crowd-funding platforms and some of the payment service providers they use are not fully captured under the proceeds of crime and terrorist financing act.”
+++++
More layers of Govt rules…..
Because it worked so well for the housing/laundry market?
Garth, I´ve been waiting for the big RE correction for 12 years and counting. They told me houses are desperately overpriced when they were at 40% of today´s valuations. I have given up hope… rate increases will come late and be modest… and when they come, in an RE-based economy, stocks will correct no less than RE. In fact, any move to severly reset house prices to anything realistic would lead to a recession unlike anything we have seen in a century. Your logic is flawless, as always, but your predictions will be as wrong as they have been for many years. Proof that you can be the smartest guy in the room and still be wrong when you are surrounded by enough idiots, which we all are. Personally, although I am doing very well financially, I will never not regret not having bought a house ca. 2012, when everybody already thought the “bubble” was about to burst.
#40 – Great post . You summed it up exactly. The quality of your neighbours is so often overlooked but is crucial to a persons enjoyment.
50 Acres north of the City means I don’t see or hear my neighbours. Priceless .
#135 IHCTD9 on 02.15.22 at 10:37 pm
“Just did this [Myers-Briggs] personality test […]. I got ENTJ, […]. […] Your life style is Perceiving (in contrast with Judging).[…]” You’ve made a mistake. Either you’re an ENTP, or you’re a Judger, not a Perceiver. Which is it? As an aside, I’d always assumed you were an ESTJ. I’d guess that your Holland Code is Realistic, Conventional, Enterprising (or RCE). :P
First time reading this blog, sound opinion piece. Thoughts: The comment section reads like the blog, a lot of ego flying around and, like all endeavors, everyone has their own agenda to push. Owners present arguments for ever rising prices while non owners offer the bearish case. Here’s my two cents, I’m a non owner, something I think everyone should disclose as part and parcel with their opinion: You can’t add a bunch of money into the supply without increasing the price of everything. Its simply not possible to pump air into anything perpetually without bursting it. It’s also impossible to burst something open without ruining the structural integrity of its shell. When money is cheap people borrow money until the bubble is over-inflated, the way this inflation is curbed is by making money not so cheap anymore. The argument of owners that the government simply will not let this bubble burst is ridiculous. The government cannot protect your gains and keep rates low without turning the country into Venezuela where a loaf of bread requires a stack of cash that needs a brown paper bag to hold it all and citizens are limited on how much they can withdraw everyday to avoid runs on the banks. Every bubble in the history of mankind was said by the bulls to be impossible to burst and yet they all did just that. Bubbles bursting is actually how the economy heals from impractical exuberance, it’s a tool of the central banks, they have no interest in protecting your gains, for them and their cronies are lying in wait to scoop up dirt cheap assets when there is blood in the streets
Since the Fed Announced It Was “Tapering” Last November, It’s Actually Added $332 Billion in Liquidity with New Debt Security Purchases
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/02/since-the-fed-announced-it-was-tapering-last-november-its-actually-added-332-billion-in-liquidity-with-new-debt-security-purchases/
“ Most Americans understood the Fed to mean last November that it had stopped easing and was now tightening credit market conditions to address inflationary pressures that were taking root in the economy. Instead, the $332 billion in additional debt purchases actually represented the equivalent of a quarter-point cut in interest rates.
As Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab tweeted on February 11: “Important to remember that balance sheet shrink is also a form [of] tightening (approximate relationship is $300b of shrink = ~25bps hike)…”
Conversely, if you increase (rather than shrink) your balance sheet by $332 billion in new debt purchases, you’ve effectively eased by 25 basis points (bps), the equivalent of a quarter-point interest rate cut. (25 basis points equal one-quarter point.)
Is it any wonder that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, hit a 40-year high of 7.5 percent year over year in January?”
@#139 Observer
“I wonder where those 2000 guns stolen in Peterborough ended up.”
++++
Dont worry about it.
They are no illegal guns in Canada.
The Liberal ads have cranked back up for the new gun legislation rules and they’ll be cracking down on the legal gun owners again.
@#142 Allan
“I bought a house in Pilger, Saskatchewan …
++++
Another 150 miles North and you could have been living in the exact geographic center of the Province.
Report back in August on the “skeeter” situation.
#142
Are you posting in the year 1957 or what? $25,000 for a home? That can’t even buy a handbag for the modern woman in Bay St.
#151 Gravy Train on 02.16.22 at 6:11 am
#135 IHCTD9 on 02.15.22 at 10:37 pm
“Just did this [Myers-Briggs] personality test […]. I got ENTJ, […]. […] Your life style is Perceiving (in contrast with Judging).[…]”
You’ve made a mistake. Either you’re an ENTP, or you’re a Judger, not a Perceiver. Which is it? As an aside, I’d always assumed you were an ESTJ. I’d guess that your Holland Code is Realistic, Conventional, Enterprising (or RCE). :P
___
I just pasted the results. I did it twice and got ENTJ both times. There was a big explanation of the results as well with a percentage of how much you skewed one way or the other, I only had a few that were over 70%. The description was hideously accurate!
#147 YVR2ZRH on 02.16.22 at 1:19 am
Here in Switzerland – the tax is 100% of the gain unless you have held the property for 5 years. That’s right – you cannot make any gain unless you held it for 5 years
___
This is a workable plan. Trudeau says he’ll do the same – but for just one year. I could hear all the specuvestors laughing when that was announced. “Horrors! I now must hold for 1 whole year!”
Canadians move on average, every eight years. A 5-year hold is ridiculous and would impact the labour market by curtailing mobility. – Garth
I hope you will also make two more websites:
1) faronsagoof.com
2) faron&sailawayaresecretBFFs.com whereby you will post all of the times you & SA agreed with or apologized to, each other.
#149 JoshuaFalken I very much agree with your take. I too waited and waited to enter the market. Full disclosure I own a home in Ontario free and clear, but I would have paid half the price if I had bought back then when Garth was saying similar things a decade ago.
The truth is, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I lived overseas for many years, and have traveled extensively. I think the thing that finally pushed me to buy in this kind of market is the fact that every second person I met in developing countries told me how they had family that just moved to Canada, or how they couldn’t wait to move to Canada, or how they owned a house in Toronto etc. etc.
The image that Canada has portrayed to the world is powerful and is a big part of where we are today. That plus the lack of coordination between the Federal governments and municipal levels (building).
The reality of the class system having entered the country is another reason this is unlikely to change. We have true generational wealth now hoarding and speculating and at is a bit of a winner-takes-all scenario between this class and big investment companies.
If you are a young person, I would just be wary of waiting for a crash. As Garth always says, don’t over-extend, try to apply the rule of 90, consider your options both outside of Canada’s major centers and overseas.
Good luck. Your politicians at all levels, and from all parties have failed you …
ArticFox spreads Fake BS on FED Tapering
#153 Arcticfox on 02.16.22 at 7:24 am
Since the Fed Announced It Was “Tapering” Last November, It’s Actually Added $332 Billion in Liquidity with New Debt Security Purchases
#154 Arcticfox on 02.16.22 at 7:26 am
“ Most Americans understood the Fed to mean last November that it had stopped easing and was now tightening credit market conditions to address inflationary pressures that were taking root in the economy. Instead, the $332 billion in additional debt purchases actually represented the equivalent of a quarter-point cut in interest rates.
**********************************
What a load of BS and not justified outrage.
Surely most Americans did not in fact think that “tapering” meant “ceasing”. Or that turning back the tap on easing meant they were already at tightening. Also then there is the leap of faith to believe that the bond buying was somehow equivalent to a cut in interest rates.
Why quote and spread such garbage? I mean the quoted article is trying to get people outraged at the fact the FED did exactly what it said it would do: to wit, taper.
“Canadians move on average, every eight years. A 5-year hold is ridiculous and would impact the labour market by curtailing mobility. – Garth”
___
Doubt it. Recent owners can still sell, they’ll just have to pay CG tax on 100% of any gains. They still put some of the gain in their pocket at the end of the day. If there were little/no gains, they pay little/no tax. Selling a house soon after purchase hurts more from the costs of selling than anything else, that part ain’t going anywhere.
So you are okay with e government dictating how and when people should move? Strange words for a tractor guy. – Garth
More peaceful protest news: 4 charged with conspiracy to murder after raid on Coutts blockade
https://globalnews.ca/news/8622765/conspiracy-to-murder-weapons-chargers-coutts-blockade-raid/
#34 Sore Ang
“In the end, it will be about ambulances, overflowing hospitals and far too many hearses parked outside the morgue.”
—————————————————————————————-
Hyperbole.
That’s been the fear mongering cry of the ignorant masses all along.
Ain’t gonna happen.
And, if by some chance it does? Well, societies have decided to accept that new reality and move on. It’s a price we’re all willing to pay instead of living under martial law, endless restrictions, and perpetual lockdowns.
Add “COVID Forever” to the list of perils that humankind has learned to adapt to over the centuries.
Cowering in lockdown and capitulating to governmental abuse and overreach will not be tolerated.
Governments need to start shifting their priorities.
Instead of funding stupid causes and pandering to special interest groups, they must spend money and concentrate their efforts on fixing all infrastructures – including the medical and healthcare systems, meaning MORE hospital beds, MORE ICUs, ancillary facilities that are COVID specific, more doctors, more nurses, more technicians, more support staff.
Their pockets are deep enough. They just squander the cash on the wrong things now. For votes. You all know.
Garth, as an ex-minister I’m interested in your opinion on these:
-The current immigration policy and its impact on the housing market? Adding an extra 200k people when there isn’t enough housing for the current population seems to be assurance for those depending on rising values.
-Health care. Everybody who wants vax’s has them, they work fabulously, and the infection numbers are less consequential. Can we now criticize the health care system or is it a sacred cow that can’t be altered? As the denominator of mandates which destructed our economy it warrants criticism but will politics allow?
Marrying unusual elective risks (antivax, poor lifestyle choices) to access limitations or extra fees.
-I know you won’t answer – who should lead the cons???
#129 ‘yvr’ – ‘if they are forced out, it might prove very difficult to find a comparable rental’. Exactly. These folks have apparently found a rental that they can afford despite rental increases ‘above the legal limit’. They have chosen to accept said increases instead of taking on the hassle of filing a complaint with the rental control board & possibly facing landlord reprisals (which if documented & proven in court would not end well for said landlord). While you are correct that I have not been in the rental market for literal decades, I am not yet senile; I clearly recall my own years of renting & the hassles of having to find new digs on short notice. BC’s post was looking for someone to take up their cause & provide sympathy for the implied unfairness of their situation – ‘having’ to accept injustice because they didn’t want to take on the hassle of dealing with legal issues. I chose not to provide said sympathy – ‘BC’ is presumably an adult & made a choice to accept injustice instead of fight it. Complaining about making that choice & trying to put the ‘blame’ for that choice on their landlord is not adult behavior.
#104 45north on 02.15.22 at 7:31 pm
RE_Investor
You could have bought in 2017 in the Applefield Dr neighbourhood of Scarborough for $900k
where?
lol….use housesigma for past sales. That’s part of the due diligence required for financial security … lol
https://housesigma.com/web/en/map?zoom=18.87¢er=%7B%22lat%22%3A43.76789530641237,%22lng%22%3A-79.26237928060912%7D&list_type=%5B3%5D&id_listing=510Qqyp00D8yLGlV
126 Applefield Dr sold for $890k in April 14, 2017
The surrounding neighbourhood has gone up a minimum of 50%.
If it wasn’t so sad it would be quite funny. A decade + of rampant Money Laundering and shady financial antics, involving hundreds of millions of $ in the B.C. property market and a total blind eye from the Fed’s.
A few million in a Go Fund Me account supporting a cause the Fed’s oppose, and the full weight every agency the Government has is mobilized on highest priority.
#140 Shawn on 02.15.22 at 1:20 pm
Houses are affordable in Alberta and there are jobs.
’nuff said? Next “move” is up to any young Canadians who want a house and can’t afford one where they live.
If their parents did not move to better their situation, surely their grand parents or great grand parents did. Maybe moved continents and came to Canada not speaking French or English. Ambitious people always do what they need to do to get ahead.
============================================
Or if the opposite is true and you’re unambitious and want to suck on a government teat, leave the US and move to Canada. Stare at a screen all day, pretend to be useful, and make 27 yappy-dog comments/day on a financial blog.
Between the long Covid and the constant bile consumption, guy’s a shoo-in for an early dirt-nap. “Full Moon” ain’t wrong, something is off mentally there.
“The burning desire to move to Bunnypatch and Armpit will be gone.”
Sadly, however the damage has been done.
The civic politicians (who usually are also the land barons) in Bunnypatch and Armpit have tasted the spoils of what the refugees from the big city can bring.
The remaking of serfdom is well underway to a suburb and rural community near you.
Builder financing, rent to own, private lending, and a great opportunity to get in the money laundering business.
Naturally it will eventually come tumbling down, and the contagion will spread to the cities.
#158 IHCTD9 on 02.16.22 at 8:45 am
“I just pasted the results. I did it twice and got ENTJ both times.” That’s fine, but please note: J = Judger, P = Perceiver. Thus your lifestyle is Judging (in contrast with Perceiving). Just trying to clarify.
Here’s a diagnostic test that anyone reading this comment can take to find out their Holland Code:
https://www.mynextmove.org/explore/ip
#167
I have a different view on this one. The poster was simply articulating a dilemma that they have, with likely no good outcome no matter what direction they take. Is this not a problem?. In a very tight rental market, if a tenant fights a Mom and Pop landlord’s rental increase (above the allowed limit) with the rental board, they will likely be ousted anyway by a fake renoviction notice, need to occupy the premises by bogus family members, and other BS. Not accepting the increase and moving is a huge headache and may not have a better outcome anyway with alternative digs, and the landlord can then jack up the rent. So in your view, you seem perfectly fine with landlords jacking up the rent beyond allowable limits as in a tight market they will likely win in either event (even if the rental board disallows the increase).
If there were more rental supply this would not be as problematic. With the huge influx of immigrants planned for each and every year going forward, and with housing supply unable to catch up, the issue described by this couple will be a common event. Have some empathy…
Faron on 02.15.22 at 4:39 pm
#91 DON on 02.14.22 at 9:29 pm
Faron…easy goes it on Russ. He’s a good egg.
—
Good point. I re-read Russ’ comments and read too much of what the others were saying into his claim about comorbidities. I’m sorry Russ.
=============================================
Hi Faron,
Thanks for the reply. I didn’t get back to the thread due to binge-watching Olympics. Fortunately Garth had stopped moderating the comments by then.
On a topic due to your recent disclosure, I have a query that has me puzzled.
Our Olympic viewing is via the CBC streaming service.
Typically we view on the “big screen” multi-media machine running Linux (Lubuntu vr 16** due to age of processor).
Two other devices I use occasionally are PC w Windoze 10 or an Android tablet. On all machines priority browser is up-dated Firefox.
The PC and tablet both suffer the normal CBC ads but the Linux machine has the “snowflake” feature or a splash screen in place of ads.
This is preferable but leads me to question, why/how that is…
Cheers, R
Andrew Scheer is a Conspirator.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-conservative-private-members-bill-takes-bank-of-canada-attacks-to-next/
House up the street from us just listed for 1.3 million, the last time they listed it, they tried for 800, I guess they are hoping to cash out on the insanity. Funny thing is, every time they list it, they change the layout of the house. First it was a full house where both floors were connected by a stairwell, then the last time they listed it, they had removed the stairs and made it 2 seperate units with 2bed/2bath upstairs and 1bed/1bath downstairs. Must not have been a big hit, because the stairs are back and it’s back to one house with three bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. It’s fully renovated, but it’s still significantly smaller than our house.
I guess we’ll see if it sells this time, it’s the third time they listed.
#151 Gravy Train on 02.16.22 at 6:11 am
I’d guess that your Holland Code is Realistic, Conventional, Enterprising (or RCE). :P
_____
Pretty close!
Realistic 25
Investigative 11
Artistic 15
Social 0
Enterprising 8
Conventional 3
#164 Observer on 02.16.22 at 9:44 am
More peaceful protest news: 4 charged with conspiracy to murder after raid on Coutts blockade
https://globalnews.ca/news/8622765/conspiracy-to-murder-weapons-chargers-coutts-blockade-raid/
———————-
This was never about the vax mandates.
People are so gullible
It’s time for the Ottawa protesters to pack it up. They have triggered massive overreach against citizens for what was, for all intents and purposes, a peaceful protest as enshrined in the Charter of Rights.
The border blockades are separate. These were illegal. And, unfortunately for the narrative, were cleared without needing the emergency act.
So, summarizing: the emergency act was invoked to remove peaceful protesters in Ottawa who were complying with legal injunctions and were beginning to cooperate as soon as an official (the mayor, in this case) engaged respectfully with them without insulting and saber rattling.
Those are the optics for many here, and especially outside the country. India especially, and definitely the US. Good political capital to run with.
I like Candace Bergen. PP seems reactive and, honestly, lightweight. Constant mudslinging criticism is not respectable work for a full grown adult.
#172 Gravy Train on 02.16.22 at 11:32 am
#158 IHCTD9 on 02.16.22 at 8:45 am
“I just pasted the results. I did it twice and got ENTJ both times.” That’s fine, but please note: J = Judger, P = Perceiver. Thus your lifestyle is Judging (in contrast with Perceiving). Just trying to clarify.
—
You wana do “new” test, ray dalio did that principle you recently, similar to belbin but little bit more descriptive.
Thing about belbin you get to be “judged/rated/scored by other people that you chose. When i did mine i picket two guys that liked me that much, and third that absolutely didn’t, but he was p.eng so answers were more “mechanical” than emotional, from what i remember he score me 80% same as i did my self, except he thought that i could be dificult and unruly at the times, what i find hard to believe… But i fix that.
Thing about principles you is that adds up and “measures” some of social traits on few levels and spits out very good report in 4 categories.
—arch type— (3 basic/dominat traits of person)
1-How you prefer to think
2-your engagment with others
3-how do you aply yourself
4-you in contekst
PrinciplesYou dot com
Now i’ll go and look for that alphabet test, that some of you took.
142 Allan – congrats on your purchase in Pilger, Sask.
Unfortunately, I don’t believe this will meet blogger Vlad’s criteria for affordable housing in a non-rural area.
I did suggest to Vlad to search listings in Prince Albert.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/saskatchewan/pilger
-26 at time of posting.
‘This one’s for people devoid of emotion.’
You forgot the ‘edited’ button Garth ;)
16 Linda
“If ‘Billie’ is sitting in dandelions right now I’m envious! Shoveled snow this morning, more to come.”
———————————
Another sunny day on the island today. Frost this morn, but high temp shown as 8C with sunshine. Snow on the
mountains – where it belongs.
Yard work yesterday, bike ride today. Optional BBQ this
evening.
WOW! Mr. Turner … you said the comments were becoming more and more unhinged, and you weren’t kidding. Besides the antivaccine ignorance, I am astonished to see how many people are saying that “Interest rates cannot rise.” Uh … the BoC has said they absolutely will be raising them. Every economist worth their salt is saying that this is inevitable. And still people say “it can’t happen!” This beggars belief. I can see why it’s wearing. Keep writing, because I love the reading.
Best wishes,
Ian from Oshawa
#179 Sail Away on 02.16.22 at 12:26 pm
Candace claims the Emergency act is against all Canadians. No Candace, it’s against your wingnut supporters.
#174 Russ on 02.16.22 at 11:59 am
Faron on 02.15.22 at 4:39 pm
Nice work using a Ubuntu flavour. Linux brings new life to “slow” older machines.
The only thing that comes to mind is something called the “user agent”. This is a short string of text that your browser sends to the server telling the it what OS and browser you are using. I see this same issue with our viewing the Olympics on an old version of Max OS. If you want to see the ads (hah!) you can download a user agent switcher plugin for firefox that will cause your browser to tell the server whatever you want from a selection of devices. Might be useful if you run into otherwise inexplicable issues connecting to other services.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-CA/firefox/addon/uaswitcher/
Faron
#180 NoName on 02.16.22 at 12:38 pm
#172 Gravy Train on 02.16.22 at 11:32 am
#158 IHCTD9 on 02.16.22 at 8:45 am
Use caution with these personality tests. You are giving an unknown service enough information to construct a profile on you and tracking cookies can further this development. That data almost certainly gets sold to parties outside of your control. Make sure you are comfortable with that possibility or that you see a clear statement that your private data will not be used outside of the test.
The great toilet paper crises was an early warning!
You may remember that a COVID19 outbreak in Albany, Georgia USA led to a large toilet paper factory curtailing production. This caused a regional shortage in the American South. This shortage in turn caused panic buying all over North America. Making the problem much worse.
Well since that crisis we have had the computer chip shortage, lumber shortage, car shortage, herbicide shortage, energy shortage, chemical fertilizer shortage (cows still make tons of the natural stuff). I could go on. Do you see the pattern here?
Since the 1990s manufactures have tried to reduce inventories and costs by adopting something called JIT (just in time). However, when their is a disaster like 2011 floods in Thailand (computer hard drive shortage) or a much bigger one like a global pandemic manufactures can’t get things just in time. So they shut down causing more shortages.
This is why inflation has been so persistent lately.
#177 IHCTD9 on 02.16.22 at 12:23 pm
“Pretty close! Realistic 25, Artistic 15, Investigative 11.”
I was way off! :P
Do the occupations in the attached list seem like a good fit for you? (Click the link.)
https://www.onetonline.org/explore/interests/Realistic/Artistic/Investigative/
The government must know these interventions will only make housing issues worse. Surely some of the smart people around them have told them so.
Then I think Ford just floated getting rid of the cost for renewing license plates. Apparently that’s worth a billion. Why? Was someone clamoring for this? Couldn’t he have accomplished the same thing just but rolling the cost back to what it was before the last increase?
Then it occurs to me Ontario has an upcoming election, Trudeau is in a shaky minority. Our politicians are always just chasing the next vote no matter what it costs us nowadays. Maybe I’m wrong but it didn’t use to be like this or at least not so overtly.
#173 ‘yvr’ – you may wish to read BC’s post again. First, they noted that their landlord’s property was increasing in value. Then they complained about said landlord increasing their rent above the proscribed percentage. Rather than taking action regarding this the poster complained. By implication, their landlords good fortune should have translated into a lower rent increase or even none at all. This ignores that prices for goods & services have gone up substantially & that in many cases the rent collected may not cover the actual cost of providing accommodation. If what BC says is true – the rent was increased beyond the proscribed percentage – then I don’t support the landlord doing so. However i can’t empathize with BC trying to put the blame for their decision on their landlord.
#187 Faron on 02.16.22 at 1:35 pm
“Use caution with these personality tests. You are giving an unknown service enough information to construct a profile on you and tracking cookies can further this development.[…]” My link should be relatively harmless. The Occupational Information Network (O*NET) is a free online database that was developed under the sponsorship of the US Department of Labor. The benefits of this site, I think, far exceed any potential costs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupational_Information_Network
https://www.onetonline.org/
Trudeau officially a monster in my book.
Maybe he had flags planted? That seems how things work these days?
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/stand-with-swastikas-emergencies-act-debate-turns-ugly-as-opposition-grows
As i mention here if you want more control just impoverish the people.
“Inflation can be ‘the way democracies dies’: Charlie Munger.”
https://news.yahoo.com/inflation-can-be-the-way-democracies-die-charlie-munger-183158672.html
Thanks for this article.