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By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Over the years I have noticed this interesting and funny pattern where stock and investment bubbles/manias garner almost all of the financial media attention when going up and ‘crickets’ when these bubbles pop and inevitably come crashing back down to earth.
That latest craze was of course the Reddit and WallStreetBets forums where people like these two geniuses above would share ideas, get everyone to jump in and try to drive up stock prices. Essentially, this is a modern day version of an old ‘pump-and-dump’ investment scam. These scams have been around forever, which entails a promotor hyping up a stock to push it higher then sell and cash-in leaving the remaining shareholders holding the bag.
I came across this interesting article that reminded me that I hadn’t checked in on Gamestop and AMC in a little while so I pulled up the charts and boy there’s a lot of blood in the streets. I called for these stocks to come crashing down last year and it was more of a question of when then if. And when is now.
In the article the author profiles these two young, ‘average joe’ dudes, AJ Vanover and George Adams, who is better known as ‘Rash’ in their circles. Apparently these two worked at a store selling batteries in Missouri earning $35k/year but during the pandemic opened a Robinhood trading account to see if they could parlay their knowledge of batteries into making a living trading stocks and options.
They made risky option bets on stocks promoted on the WallStreetBets chat room and turned a small sum into hundreds of thousands of dollars overnight. George or ‘Rash’ (one on the left with shades) did pretty well selling everything after the big run and netting $900,000. Vanover held on too long and saw his portfolio fall from its peak of $1.2 million before cashing out for $300,000. Still a lot of money for these guys so they do what any sensible person would do in their shoes, quit their jobs and start trading full-time.
Here’s where it gets interesting. AJ and Rash kept on trading thinking they are the next Jesse Livermore, the stock trading legend from the early 1900s. But now their luck has run out and they are mounting some major losses with the recent market correction. Vanover, for example, has lost over $400,000 in recent months, giving back a good chunk of the profits he made from GME. This is a classic example of a novice trader/investor confusing luck for skill. In Vanover’s words ‘I don’t feel like a pro, but I’m acting like a pro.’ That about sums it up.
The point of this is to not get caught up in these highly speculative bubbles as they almost always implode leaving behind battered portfolios and tears. To be a successful investor requires a bit more than a chat room and an investing app on your phone.
To further hit home this point, let’s check in on Gamestop and AMC Entertainment to see how that’s been playing out. Oh surprise, surprise, they’ve blown up!
Gamestop was the most absurd of the meme trading phenomenon rallying over 1,700% and peaking at $483/share in January 2021. Well, it’s been a tough go as of late for the bricks-and-motor video game retailer with the stock down 80% from its peak, sitting at roughly $100. Now there’s only a few suckers who bought near the high of $480 but still this has wiped out billions in equity and I’m sure has left behind untold damage to thousands of investors and their depleted accounts.
In the chart I also include AMC Holdings, which is the largest theatre owner in the US and clearly a rough industry to be in during a pandemic. It has dropped from its high of $70 in July 2021 to around $15 today or 80% from the top.
Finally, in the chart I include the general thought process of probably most of these investors throughout the roller-coaster trade.
At first the stocks are surging and this quick success leads to overconfidence and thinking they are investing geniuses. In their view fundamentals don’t matter. Momentum and a good ‘short squeeze’ are all that needed to make money in the stock market. And because many novice investors have no sell discipline and greed often takes over, they let their profits ride in hopes that the good times will keep on rolling.
Of course it never goes on forever and before you know it the stocks have their first big setback. Now much of the gains have been wiped out and they think/hope ‘it’s going to bounce’ but then it gaps down again as short-term, momentum traders rush for the exits to get out of the way of this speeding train. The opportunity to sell has passed and now they’re holding some crappy company with little prospects of recovering.
GME and AMC are Down 80% from their Peaks
Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments
Having been around for a while I’ve seen my fair share of hot fads, momentum stocks and bubbles that rise spectacularly to then top out and come crashing back down. Don’t fall into this trap as almost always these bubbles inevitably pop with just a few early (and lucky) investors profiting, while the majority of investors take huge losses. Of course the financial media has moved on by that time so it’s rare you’ll ever hear the stories from these investors.
We’ve said it numerous times before and it bears repeating again. Maintain a balanced and globally diversified portfolio and don’t be like our buddy Rash who swings for the fences on some stupid meme stock with no fundamentals. We know how these all end.
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.
147 comments ↓
On the Economic Shutdowns/reset.
The “Re-opening Act” in Ontariowe is of course the “Re-closing Act”. Our rulers love to taunt us.
Somebody I know is down in the USA working a trade show.
Trade Show????? No we don’t have those here Comrade. The government controls out economy. Quotas, Non-Essential industries, UBI. 3rd year running.
Why is Kanada being reset? Answer: what are wars fought over? LAND. This is the 2nd largest country by size.
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— Supply Chain. Truckers thing – is this part of the reset agenda?
https://twitter.com/brianlilley/status/1491577178559066113 Political columnist for the Toronto Sun
Toyota will not produce vehicles at their three Ontario plants this week. The Ambassador Bridge is effectively shut down. The Blue Water is slowed. Peace Bridge may shut this weekend.
Good jobs may leave Ontario forever.
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— The Digital ID rollout continues. BC has new mandates.
.B.C. expands health-care vaccine mandate to include dentists, chiropractors and other regulated professionals (cbc.ca)
–A reminder the Digital ID and tracking is permanent. That’s why it was rolled out globally.
.Edmonton exploring own proof-of-vaccination program after Alberta’s cancelled (edmonton.ctvnews.ca)
.Health minister says Ontario has no immediate plans to follow Alberta in scrapping vaccine passport (cp24.com)
The only good thing that ever came out of AMC was Breaking Bad.
Mister WHITE!
Better call SAUL (S’all Good, Man)
Jesse Pinkman
Tuco (TIGHT! TIGHT!)
Crypto, SPACS, NTF’s, drug stocks, real-estate, some major indexes all in bubble territory together. What can go wrong?
You can re-post this article in the near future with a find and replace. Gamestop and AMC for Bitcoin and Art NFTs
Classic FOMO – let’s get in at the top, brah!!
The trifecta of guest posts is now complete, and I wonder if I will have to go cold turkey tomorrow or the cycle begins anew? There’s always the small possibility of a guest poster, in which case, my inconsequential vote’s for tractor guy.
Good post Ryan.
Thanks for contributing.
Hey Ryan; good advice as always.
I can remember driving past Nortel’s campus, Carling and Moodie in Ottawa, listening to the news, and Nortel’s then president Roth was spewing on about how Nortel was going to “Reinvent the Internet”.
My first thought was “Yeah, right”, being involved in said Internet since before its’ birth, and of course, not many months later, Nortel imploded.
I did work later with more than a couple ex. Nortellians, who should have been retired, but lost everything, including pension and “stock options”.
You guys pushing diversification and building a stable financial platform over time is SPOT ON.
There is shortage of stocks to short in this market, not with P/E’s at a lofty 38x earnings and a wide array of stocks that had no business flying high to begin with. It’s easy to see where they are with earnings and balance sheets.
Still, it’s a cautionary tale. Take Game stop. It dipped to $94 and closed yesterday near $125 (currently @ $120). Do you put at put on it in the $130’s and try to cash in near term? (that’s gambling as those placing naked puts on GME @ $95 found out) Or you do short it over the long term with a small call bet knowing you need to cover? (that’s investing, assuming you learned how to use a calculator)
Which brings us to the point of gambling. Of course its a gamble to use naked puts and calls unless you are hedging an investment. That would change it to investing.
It takes patience to see it play out and wait for investor sentiment to turn (sectors of this market are crying for shorts) but I believe we won’t have to wait forever. Inflation is running at 7.5%. It’s not done climbing, 7.7… 7.8% next month if commodities continue their ascent, what will the Fed do, raise rates a mere quarter point?
It’s more likely that they’ll raise the Fed rate .5% and try to break market behavior that way. (March will be a rough month for longers) The only thing that could stop this is war and even then, I don’t think the Fed can avoid raising rates now.
With inflation running so hot, stagflation has likely already begun. All of the hopium for past markets, its changed from inflation this high. Just look at the percentage of earnings meeting more beating expectations from the S/P500 and it’s trending down. Bubblenomics is no longer a “thing”.
That’s all I have time for, Good day everyone.
Official inflation at 7.5 %. 40 years high, considering that the methodology has changed to significantly underreport it.
Unofficial aka Cost of Living, or using the old methodologies: north of 15 %.
And accelerating.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-10-2022-234054560.html
Interest rates should be in double digits, not 0.25 %, and ‘potentially’ rising to 1-1.5 %.
If your salary/income or ‘indexed’ benefits have increased by 2-3 % annually (if lucky) you are probably 10 % poorer in just one year.
Central bankers (BOA) asking the workers not to ask for salary increases as this will drive inflation up further.
Interesting times ahead.
Let’s see what kind of ‘tools’ the guys with no balls will use against the inflation, as you have to ‘rest assured that they have the inflation under control and all the tools to achieve it’.
Alberta may be dropping masks and vaxx passports, but Edmonton’s Mayor, Amarjeet Sohi, the former Natural Resources Minister of Canada and pipeline killer, has decided to bypass the province and bring in more their own vaxx passport and c0vid restrictions…. as if there wasn’t enough division. I am sure the truckers in Alberta will take kindly to this… the circus continues!! LOL
Here you go brother:
I liked wallstreetbets better when it was just people posting screenshots of their losses for everyone to make fun of them.
Buy and hold blue chip dividend paying stocks .
Drip the dividends until you need the income.
Or call Turner investments.
It was a hoot watching the diamond hands troop on WSB last year. The “loss porn” posts were not long after. Some even expressed regret and admitted they got caught up in the fray. There was a lot of humour over there though with all the “hold!” and ‘I will never sell!” memes they made up. Good entertainment for someone with no skin in the game.
Similar to those kids, I thought I Could learn about the market. I studied and read books… but I wasn’t passionate about it, so I looked for a professional to manage my savings. Ca-ching!
Two regrets: I listened to my folks about GICs and didn’t invest sooner. In few years I’ve been with Turner Investments, I made infinitely more than I ever made on any GIC or with any dim bank advisor. And let me tell you, bank advisors take hours of your time, like ‘time’ was the investment. I just wanted to make some money.
I feel good, I was scared at first, but now, it’s not just me bringing home the bacon any more.
I mean… they invested $4k and got houses, cars and still some money left over. If they had a B&D – they’d have about $6k maybe and no house or car, so cut them some slack!
Couldn’t agree more, Ryan. I’m a pro at paying a pro to do it. Shifting blame and responsibility…
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#1 TurnerNation on 02.10.22 at 8:29 am
Why is Kanada being reset?
Man, you go on and on…who cares? Do you have the power to stop it? If its land they want who is going to stop whoever from taking it, you? Same with jobs and immigration and that thing the truckers want.
People, a lot smarter than us Canadians, want to live here…its going to happen and keep happening long past our lives.
Like the other heros on this blog…blah blah blah…then we die…
now, go get yur squeeze, talk nice, and get a little mushi. Before its too late.
Og
Inflation at highest level since 1982.
Realize that was when it was on the way down, after almost a decade.
Shortage of housing, off topic but some thoughts:
My father, may he RIP, built homes, immigrated to Canada. He worked 9-5 and bought land with his pay, and lived off my mom’s.
They live in an immigrant neighborhood. Friends that were brick layers, plumbers, or just workers would come after work and help my dad, in exchange he would help them. They exchanged work for work. They enjoyed a beer together on hot days and I grew up sweeping up sawdust, painting tar on foundations, and roofing. I loved it. Good memories.
Quickly my Dad went to night school got his plumbing license, then his electrical license. Built a few more homes, was renting out his other homes. Then he got his inspectors license. He built 63 homes, and helped a ton of others build theirs too.
40 years ago that was all you needed. NOW you need a ticket or license or permit or registration number just to spit in your back yard.
You wanna build a home now? God help ya!
The government dips its fingers into everything and now everything you do – needs a license, registration, permits, approval. No dam wonder there is a shortage of homes. I get lumber is up, but today, building a home is for multi-millionaires… not common folk.
And the gap widens…
Who is buying the pull back on Meta & Netflix?
…LAND. And what do you do with land? Why you Farm it.
A gigantic Tax Farm with 100 million residents handing you money. Then the Queen’s Banker Blog Dog Carney will hand it over to the banking cartel and Friends of Party, to be spent on “green” climate initiatives.
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
Growing our population to 100 million by 2100
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The State-funded media in Kanada is amazing. Not only did they locate a trucker who died of CV but also an anti-mandate protestors who…wait for it…got sick while at a rally! What are the chances guys? And that both stories hit the news this week!
The message here is not so subtle: Do not protest. And you dare protest the government you might die.
Shameless propagandization of people’s misery.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/trucker-protest-freedom-convoy-1.6339862
This trucker died of COVID-19. Now, his mother has a message for convoy protesters
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/02/09/her-mom-died-of-covid-after-attending-anti-vaccine-rallies-now-this-toronto-woman-wants-to-warn-others.html
Her mom died of COVID after attending anti-vaccine rallies. Now this Toronto woman wants to warn others
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But why? Here is is. All our leaders are on board with this UN global plan. Kicked off in March 2020.
https://www.bccic.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Localizing-the-2030-Agenda-in-British-Columbia_2020.pdf
Localizing the 2030 Agenda in British Columbia -September 2020
https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/programs/agenda-2030/national-strategy.html
Towards Canada’s 2030 Agenda National Strategy
#20 baloney Sandwitch on 02.10.22 at 11:01 am
Who is buying the pull back on Meta & Netflix?
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Not Meta, but I did add to my Netflix position. It divebombed for no fundamental operational reason- that’s a plum to be plucked. A plucky plum.
With historical returns of 10yr-1700%, 5yr- 350% it has stability and longevity, even though this event dropped the 1 yr return to zero-ish.
It’s gambling, not investing. The mistake is thinking luck played no part.
The Conservatives are now 100% associated with Trumpism.
It’s time for a new Progressive Centrist party.
I lay blame for this mess at the feet of Pete McKay, who sold out the Progressives.
Thanks Ryan!
A good advisor can make lock in financial independence; a bad one can destroy the future.
After consistently mediocre to poor advisor experiences up until 15 years ago, I resolved to learn the game and spent a full year taking courses, studying, tracking and setting up accounts before transferring everything over to self-directed- beginning with full ETF/index and slowly branching out to many other strategies. I now directly handle my portfolios, and also work with two advisors (one Canada, one US) who have access to and knowledge about products beyond my reach.
It’s fascinating and lucrative… but only if it interests you. Very few people have the interest.
In which case, a full service advisor should be used. Garth’s group is top notch. It’s my first recommendation to those outside the SA family group.
Is it still the position of Turner Investments that Bitcoin is nothing more than unicorn “gas”?
Did Garth go to Ottawa to support the Truckers ?
So here I am reading through today’s informative post and hit up Ctrl+F: Citadel Melvin. ! . nothing….
How can one not address an entity(ies) that “oversees” hundreds of billions of USD mostly on short positions, and then asking to shutdown the market a couple of times as a favor to which the operator obliges to? They must have an easy backdoor for loss stopages…
https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/
… and there’s are volumes worth of documented illegal crap that is in plain sight… like threads and threads and threads.
Pump and dump has been the whole economic activity. How else do you put wild valuations that have come to be norms.
Income —> Investment —> Growth —> Profits —> Accumulate —: Retire!
Please show us income growth overlapping valuation growth for normies! Other than that this is concentrated activity which indeed doesn’t reflect broad population/activity. May even be described as a Bubble.
____________________________________________________
One a different note lets look at some very intelligent (to me) ways of generating yield:
https://docs.geniusyield.co
Turing complete and all….
Peace
Central Banks are now going to contend with much higher interest rates now with annual inflation staying at 7%+ for years. 9% to 10% GIC and bond rates coming soon, rewind back to the 1990’s.
Been down the road of speculation.
Like those that play the ponies would say, ‘ you can beat a race but you won’t beat the track’.
Thanks for the post today Ryan. Your analysis always resonates with me.
I can think of at least one meme stock “investor” who comments here who has been really quiet since the pop in AMC/GME/BB/NOK etc. etc. After proclaiming at least one of those names was about to take off.
W/re the CPI print: look at those 1yr and shorter US bond yields. 19 basis pt move in the 1yr, 15 in the 6 month. 10 year cracking 2% with an 8bp move. Net flattening of the yield curve. Junk bonds also getting hammered. May want to look at your holdings and their credit ratings. Profitless junk will have a harder time staying afloat if they can’t roll their debt.
Do not ignore the bond market right now. It’s starting to price in a 0.5% rate raise in March from the US Fed.
It is enough to make a sane person wish that the only thing digital in Canada were fingers and toes.
RE: but today, building a home is for multi-millionaires…
This is why Canada will perish if nothing else.
#99 Dr. V
90 Ponz – my goodness, what did you say??
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In Vino Veritas
This ones a little off topic, but that never stopped anyone on this blog. It’s for all of Pierre Pepper fans who think he would make a fine P.M. Check the date and circumstances surrounding this reasonable response from a true leader.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PnPCBC/status/1228108588696121344?s=20&t=L1ihUYP0sEaxwAdzBqyEOw
Apologies if already posted
https://financialpost.com/investing/canadas-big-banks-positioned-for-years-of-dividend-growth-brian-belski
The trick, of course, is to be one of the early/lucky ones. As I am neither, I stick with boring B&D. I wish I’d learned about that earlier, too!
How is this much different seeing all those gambling commercials on US TV that you can bet $5 and it can become $280. Since New York let in online sports betting there are so many TV commercials and infomercials it is so in your face.
This is a classic example of a novice trader/investor confusing luck for skill. – Ryan
THAT was good.
Up down World of stocks like you said in your 2022 prediction. Took to heart your dividends idea (already had acted and retired) but that was Royal Assent to me; thus, continuing on.
So far this year Dividends > Change in Market Value.
Year of the Dividend?
The only market certainty in 2022 thus far will be:
Expect the unexpected.
#28 CanadianOne on 02.10.22 at 12:54 pm
You’re NGMI
8 Diamond Dog
“There is shortage of stocks to short in this market, not with P/E’s at a lofty 38x earnings and a wide array of stocks that had no business flying high to begin with. It’s easy to see where they are with earnings and balance sheets.”
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Hello DD. I am not an expert on shorting, but this
statement seems counter-intuitive. I would have thought a high valuation would mean a stock is a strong candidate for shorting. Or is it that the demand is overwhelming the supply mechanism for shorting?
Thanks for any clarification you can provide.
Wasn’t the whole GME story about criminal hedge fund managers shorting the stock with shares that do not exist. Naked shorting I believe it’s called. The corrupt financial market allowed this to continue until the stock price started to come down. It is still happening.
Why is naked shorting legal?
For that matter why is money laundering not only legal in Canada but a critical part of the economic strategy employed by our traitorous government.
Working for a living and paying taxes is futile until there is a complete sweep of criminals running the financial system and our government.
Collecting EI is the best strategy until the house of cards comes crashing down.
Get your daily dose of RAGE here young people.
https://old.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/
And some newbies learned the hard way how Margin accounts work.
Off topic unless you live in Ottawa or Toronto or at some Canada-US border crossing.
Babylon Bee (fake news you can trust) have got it in for Trudeau.
Besides accusing him of having Mounties gun squad execute blindfolded Canada Geese for fascist honking support of the truckers, their latest:
Trudeau Demands Protesters Stop Shutting Down City So That He Can Shut Down City
https://babylonbee.com/news/trudeau-demands-protesters-stop-shutting-down-city-so-that-he-can-shut-down-city
AND…
For those of you that can remember HAL 9000, well Alexa becomes…Daisy, Daisy…:
Alexa Refuses To Play Joe Rogan’s Podcast
https://babylonbee.com/video/154
Catalyst “I mean… they invested $4k and got houses, cars and still some money left over. If they had a B&D – they’d have about $6k maybe and no house or car, so cut them some slack!”
These dudes are the lucky ones having pulled out early and locking in some decent gains. But as I covered they have deluded themselves into thinking they know what they are doing and they can continue to earn a living from this. Dollars to donuts they lose it all and will be submitting a resume back at the battery store they came from. My point is trading/speculating is hard!! Lastly, these are the lucky ones. CNN didn’t reach out to the hundreds if not thousands that have been wiped out by investing in GME and AMC. – Ryan L
A further $7 billion
https://youtu.be/mapxta3nKcA
4+ minute of near-silence.
The ‘pump and dump’ scam – I thought there were laws in place to prevent that from occurring? If AMC & GameStop are examples of said scam, why didn’t they get shut down?
Excellent story and thanks for sharing. I had my first taste of greed in January of 2000 and had my ass handed to me by April. I lost more in those 4 months than I have combined since then, or 22 years later. Boring wins every time, but few have the patience.
Certain commenters who have said COVID is NBD may want to look at this:
https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-takes-serious-toll-heart-health-full-year-after-recovery
Other papers out this week show that long COVID can have neurological impacts similar to Alzheimers.
As one who likely has long COVID, this news is not welcome.
They look like the losers in the video store in the 80s movies. You know the guy who peaked in high school and was living with his mom in his 40s.
The old saying was when the cab driver was giving you advice on a hot stock, it’s time to sell.
#10 Jesse on 02.10.22 at 9:46 am
Fortunately in Calgary only our ‘woke” mayor and few of her fellow nutbars refused to stay in their lane.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-council-balks-at-possibility-of-local-vaccine-passport-system
Peace , Order and Good Government – not so much in Canada anymore.
Faron, the 10 to 30 year US will be between 6.25% to 6.75% in next few months, 18 max. This is back to the 2000 high of US treasury bond market.
Ryan,
One did not too bad netting 900k, if he was smart he would invest that in a B&D portfolio, and start again.
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/snqigi/so_if_i_understand_correctly_if_lyft_drops_to_30/
$54,000 in four days, not a bad week.
Options are not always the boogeyman. Care and monitoring of positions is needed.
Thanks Ryan, enjoyed this post!
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/edmonton-exploring-possibility-of-implementing-own-vaccine-passport-program-mask-mandate-remains-in-place-for-ages-two-and-up
Cities passing vaccine passport rules in contravention of provincial? Seems counter-intuitive…not to mention inconsistent.
I feel sorry for kids and families that have dealt with this morass for two years now, for what benefit?
If masks really worked would Japan and other Asian countries be dealing with massive outbreaks?
Why do we need 3rd doses and considered ‘behind’ if we have only had one dose 10 months ago, or none? That’s like showing up for a flu shot and being told we have to have the 2018 shot, and the 2019 shot, and the 2020 shot before we are ‘up to date’…when the general consensus is the MRNA ‘wears out’ after six months…and yet that’s what the passport does. Someone correct me if I’m wrong
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-council-balks-at-possibility-of-local-vaccine-passport-system
Yup, we are over-governed and over-regulated. How can the province have public health legislation and the cities are able to go their own way?
And how can one City say it’s not unconstitutional and the other say the opposite?
Poor little kiddies and parents. children need to breathe! And see peoples’ faces to learn…
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-council-balks-at-possibility-of-local-vaccine-passport-system
Pfizer has submitted vaccine for 6 months + to 5 year olds from this virus. Coming to Canada soon? Plus interprovincial mobility rules tied to vaccine status? Federal Transport Minister
Thank god for councillors with common sense in YYC
#35 rosie on 02.10.22 at 1:39 pm
This ones a little off topic, but that never stopped anyone on this blog. It’s for all of Pierre Pepper fans who think he would make a fine P.M. Check the date and circumstances surrounding this reasonable response from a true leader.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PnPCBC/status/1228108588696121344?s=20&t=L1ihUYP0sEaxwAdzBqyEOw
*******
This will haunt him.
Pierre in Feb 2020 compared to Feb 2020.
Ah ha ha what we get with false idols.
A person the yaps all the time should at least remember what they yapped about two years ago.
Face meet a double palm!
#35 rosie on 02.10.22 at 1:39 pm
This ones a little off topic, but that never stopped anyone on this blog. It’s for all of Pierre Pepper fans who think he would make a fine P.M. Check the date and circumstances surrounding this reasonable response from a true leader.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PnPCBC/status/1228108588696121344?s=20&t=L1ihUYP0sEaxwAdzBqyEOw
******* oops typo on second date
This will haunt him.
Pierre in Feb 2020 compared to Feb 2022.
Ah ha ha what we get with false idols.
A person the yaps all the time should at least remember what they yapped about two years ago.
Face meet a double palm!
#52 Jake on 02.10.22 at 3:15 pm
Faron, the 10 to 30 year US will be between 6.25% to 6.75% in next few months, 18 max. This is back to the 2000 high of US treasury bond market.
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No, I disagree. A rate of change that high would force a risk-off event in equities that would result in cessation of bond sales and rate rises to pause. May get there eventually, but certainly not in a few months.
The rate of change of rates matters to equities more than the absolute rate right now. Ultimately, corporate cost of borrowing can be fed over to the consumer and planned for. But unexpected increases in costs of borrowing will cut into earnings and force equity prices to compensate downward. That is happening today as equities are realizing that the fed may have to go for a 0.5% increase next month.
Uh where’s Waldo…I mean garth ?
@#49 Faron on 02.10.22 at 2:52 pm
Certain commenters who have said COVID is NBD may want to look at this:
https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-takes-serious-toll-heart-health-full-year-after-recovery
Other papers out this week show that long COVID can have neurological impacts similar to Alzheimers.
As one who likely has long COVID, this news is not welcome.
–
hehe, you really think they’re going to click on a link with the word ‘science’ in it?
#114 Sail Away on 02.10.22 at 8:11 am
I would happily never engage with Faron
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Oh, I see. That’s why you troll me out of the blue about stonk prices and whatever else. Hypocrisy much? Member that self-control thing you harp on? Yeah, you aren’t very good at it.
It’s not stalker-ey as much as fascination for the train-wreck your comments often are.
Crypto fits in with the BB et al. meme stocks.
Here’s an interview with a guy who went all in on Doge-coin and multiplied his money many-fold… and then watch a lot of it evaporate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/14/podcasts/the-daily/dogecoin-cryptocurrency-bitcoin.html
and the follow up 7 months later:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/podcasts/the-daily/dogecoin-cryptocurrency.html
“Why is naked shorting legal?”
If it is legal it is largely for the purpose of regulating the price of precious metals to make them look less precious than currencies and other debt instruments.
Gaaaa….so the St Louis fed person says they gotta hike rates 100bp by July to quell the worst inflation in 40 years.
Result? Markets drop back into the red across the board.
Just wish they would do it a quarter point at a time consistently, so as to be a steadying influence. Oh well, maybe another buying dip coming up……
Good Gaud, I am the only one sick of the covid questions??? “should I get the third dose?” Seriously??
Don’t be like these two guys in Ryan’s post. Book an appointment with your doctor already, and have a chat.
Or search here:
https://www.canadianhealthcarenetwork.ca/blogs
Ryan,
For context after one year of savings in a B&D portfolio of 10% after tax income and returning around 8% what would that be for these guys. Also how many years would it take for them at their current salary and saving 10% to achieve what they achieved in that short time span using options. It is nice to have perspective.
Thanks.
#20 Baloney
“Who is buying the pull back on Meta & Netflix?”
_________________________________________
Meta! First time buying. Cash-flow statement is too juicy.
#61 KLNR on 02.10.22 at 3:58 pm
@#49 Faron on 02.10.22 at 2:52 pm
hehe, you really think they’re going to click on a link with the word ‘science’ in it?
—
Hah.
Duh, silly me. I should have html-wrapped that link so it looked like it came from Rebel News or The Post Millennial.
Nevada drops mask mandate effective immediately (Superbowl is on Sunday)
California drops mask mandates on Feb 15th (in time for the Oscars)
Didn’t even need a convoy, just a surge in GOP support.
@#62 Faron.
Did you constantly pick at your scabs when you were a child?
#40 Faron on 02.10.22 at 1:51 pm
#28 CanadianOne on 02.10.22 at 12:54 pm
You’re NGMI
_____________________________________________________
Faron,
Care to explain?
@33 Steven Rowlandson
“RE: but today, building a home is for multi-millionaires…”
I think I remember you are in the building trade. Maybe you can answer my question below.
In my ‘hood, the 1950s houses (like we own) get bulldozed, and a 1.5 to 2.5 mil palace put up in its’ place. Or, they get another story put on, or an “extension” out the back that is larger than the original home.
Why is this? What makes a 1.5 or 2.5 million house more of a home than the one super-sized or replaced?
Maybe someone who knows houses can pipe in and tell me. (it’s an honest question, not a troll, ok?)
Well this is all fine and true Ryan, but you have to admit that all these stock shenanigans are a “net zero” game. For all the money these AJ and George guys supposedly lost, they got it all free from the market first. What the market giveth, the market can taketh away. In reality if you mark their book to the purchase price they probably didn’t “lose” much of anything.
But even the fools who bought at the top only provided an opportunity for someone else to sell. So the process only causes money to change hands, no money or “wealth” if you will is actually created or destroyed. A fantastic share price settle only means on this particular day certain fools were parting with their money at a certain price per share. It means nothing else. That is why ascertaining “wealth” based on share price is such a fool’s game. Tomorrow is a different day, and it will be met with a different share price. It isn’t money until you sell.
It’s also why I don’t feel sorry for folks who become overnight millionaires on a stock one day and then “lose it all” the next. Unless they invested real hard earned money in the stock that they didn’t get back, they didn’t lose anything. And even if they did, there was someone else on the other side of the trade who sold and got the money. Only the central banks can create money. The market does not.
On the other hand, when you let “professors in film studies, Asian studies, religious studies, history, accounting, English, art history, philosophy…pretty much any social science discipline you can imagine” decide energy policy things can really go off the rails and you can end up with a game where we all lose.
https://boereport.com/2022/02/10/maybe-were-better-off-if-we-cant-find-our-politicians-an-ocean-of-ignorance-guides-western-energy-policy/
For those who suffer from cognitive dissidence and thus cannot read such articles I will sum it up for you: There is no “energy transition”. The amount of energy we get from renewable sources is larger today and continues to grow, but as a percentage of total energy production it hasn’t changed in 30 years. We have made zero progress. We are unlikely to make any serious progress, because all the good dam sites are dammed, and wind and solar don’t work.
#109 Dr V on 02.09.22 at 1:26 am
100 Ponz
“My name is John, and I’m a Stock Picker.”
————————————–
Now that was actually….funny!
—————–
Yep.
Gallow humor is my specialty.
Right after sarcasm.
But seriously, Daytrading can lead to serious addicting issues, just like gambling and can ruin your life.
A co-worker and good friend of mine used office time and resources to Day Trade.
He eventually got caught and was fired.
But he continued on the same bath, and eventually lost his house and his family. (sounds familiar?).
And I’m said to say, he’s no longer with us.
He always said he was not addicted to it.
Addiction comes in many ways and many places.
Not just the bums on the Down Town Eastside.
Also, the executives in the Downtown high rises.
Hi Ryan:
So where do you reckon is the southern Ontario detached housing market on that graph?
Steve.
#72 CanadianOne on 02.10.22 at 5:06 pm
#64 Steven Rowlandson on 02.10.22 at 4:19 pm
#42 Lord Garth of Izar on 02.10.22 at 1:56 pm
Ryan, what have you done??? Naked shorting, Melvin Capital, Citadel. All the meme stock tropes are weeping back through the coat of paint time has put over January, 2021.
Faron, Save your “Thank you Ryan : Your analysis always resonates with me”, for when Ryan might be in a bad mood & takes it out on innocent you by pressing DELETE. But it is a good one. Not original. I’ve tried it on a few ladies. With varying degrees of success.
Interesting that a side effect of the truckers excitement is that so many Americans are being forced to notice Canada & the interdependence of the two countries.
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2022/02/conservatives-demand-trudeau-end-freedom-convoy-protest-they-fully-support-and-hope-continues/
not really even satire anymore lol.
How Hard is it to Build a House?
@33 Steven Rowlandson
“RE: but today, building a home is for multi-millionaires…”
*********************************
Maybe that’s right. With a shortage of homes for sale and prices through the roof, there ought to be enterprising tradespeople who would buy an empty lot or a “tear-down” house and build a house or a duplex or even a small apartment building.
Are there just too many barriers these days that make it far harder to do?
What about builder mortgages? Are those available and at reasonable interest rates? Is sweat equity allowed such that there is little or no down payment? Have things in this regard changed?
Is labor the problem? Is it harder now to hire the other trades that you can’t do yourself?
Has house building changed such that it’s more automated these days? And the do it your selfer can’t compete?
#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.22 at 4:45 pm
Why, are you bleeding?
Another fad for sure is specuvesting 1B1B condos.
In my city, they are queuing up on MLS rental.
NOT renting. Sitting.
DOMs growing ever longer.
Occasional price drop.
Will this become the rout of the plunge?
49 Faron Am so sorry to hear that. Get well soon and thank you for your daily contributions to this pathetic blog. God bless
We do not smoke, drink or have anything to do with cannabis. However when it became legal both cannabis
and later the edibles were popular stocks to buy. It does not look like these stocks which we AVOIDED have paid off as predicted.
#74 Nonplused on 02.10.22 at 5:20 pm
“[…] There is no ‘energy transition’. The amount of energy we get from renewable sources is larger today and continues to grow, but as a percentage of total energy production it hasn’t changed in 30 years. We have made zero progress. We are unlikely to make any serious progress, because all the good dam sites are dammed, and wind and solar don’t work.” Rooftop solar energy provides numerous benefits to power companies to meet government goals: a) the energy supply is free of carbon emissions; b) there is no energy production cost; c) the lifetime of a solar array is far longer than other energy production systems; d) less energy in the power grid is lost over transmission lines; e) energy production coincides with peak demand; f) there’s no noise pollution; g) its scalability, modularity and flexibility means it’s simpler, easier and cheaper to meet energy needs, esp. in remote locations; h) the efficiency and security of the power grid is improved by helping to protect against blackouts, voltage dips, overloads and fires; i) its energy supply is inexhaustible (and not subject to market price fluctuations); and j) the installations promote local job creation.
Since Faron voted me 2022 GreaterFool’s Most Likeliest To Make Him Laugh, I’ll try and lighten the mood between The Bert And Ernie of the blog.
Hey Faron, did you here Dutch authorities decided not to rush putting that bridge back up after Jeff Bezos’s super-yacht passes under so Sail Aways ego can go through any time it likes…
M47BC
Ryan
Just like all the weed stocks turned into a bubble and I watched everyone that is clueless about markets (warned a few) lose their shirts. I tripled my loot, bailed out and added to my RE portfolio that can’t blow away.
#74 Nonplused on 02.10.22 at 5:20 pm
====================
If a stock gaps up or down big when the markets closed due to a news event like META. Where does the loot go or come from? Only works if if the the market is balanced. Market cap can disappear.
Plus one on the energy post.
I’ve been calling out this disaster for years. T2s right at the top for his carbon polices.
It all just making life way more expensive. An absolute sham.
Just take the new Ford F150 Lightening…May only go 120Kms with a big load.
I’ll keep my super cab Dually Duramax. I’ve got a 4,800lb 2 slide camper and can get 700+kms on a tank.
It can also pull my 40ft 5 side 5th Wheel. Go diesel power!
We got an electric car for doing the groceries and light duties. Love that car BECAUSE near zero maintenance and 350Km ride for about $5.00
You have to pick and choose what suits.
Politicians are absolutely clueless.
Nukes or hydrogen maybe the only large scale viable solution…If they get and keep them to be safe.
Still going to need Diesel and Natgas.
millmech “Ryan, For context after one year of savings in a B&D portfolio of 10% after tax income and returning around 8% what would that be for these guys. Also how many years would it take for them at their current salary and saving 10% to achieve what they achieved in that short time span using options. It is nice to have perspective. Thanks.”
What about the thousands of other investors who were not that lucky and lost their shirt? And as I mentioned, those gains are now evaporating. – Ryan L
It’s like AfterPay… except for houses!
What could go wrong?
https://www.9news.com.au/national/property-news-ownhome-startup-helping-sydneysiders-get-into-housing-market/14e7212a-cc02-42d2-a777-a59aedd73d36
… Maintain a balanced and globally diversified portfolio …
Charlie Mungers on diversification:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCVvSsm5HtI
For those who don’t know Mungers is long lime Warren Buffet business partner.
Been following their philosophy for a long time, results? My TFSA is closing on 250K
Just don’t care about market corrections!
#74 Nonplused on 02.10.22 at 5:20 pm
====================
If a stock gaps up or down big when the markets closed due to a news event like META. Where does the loot go or come from? Only works if if the the market is balanced. Market cap can disappear.
******************************
Yes of course market cap can disappear. Stocks and houses and all financial assets other than actual money are MEASURED in units of money (loot, if you will) but are not money as such.
In the example you cite, wealth is created from thin air when a stock gaps up and is destroyed and simply disappears when a stock gaps down.
Measuring wealth by market value is not always ideal but it is the best available way to do it.
Again, financial assets are worth money. They can be converted to money but are not money. The value of financial assets as measured in money can change rapidly. That does not mean that the value is in any way fake. It’s just variable. In some cases it’s also just an estimate because there is no instant market for things like houses.
#89 Ryan Lewenza on 02.10.22 at 6:47 pm
=============================
Ryan that’s the same as a gamblers mentality. You always here about the winners…NEVER their losers. Vegas is so shinny!
And comments on houses….cost ect.
Got a plumbing quote always shocking.
$155 an hr now 2 guys 1 day $2,325.00 WTHell!?
Called up the lumber yard custom cut fir 8x8x10ft. If they can get them $220 ea.
I’m heading to my saw mill tomorrow and stop reading this blog and watching Dr. Phil lol….I’ve got a logging truck of fir sitting there.
Can make a $4,000 day cash. Crazy.
Houses are expensive, labors nuts, materials are stupid.
A millions chicken feed now.
Ill be doing the pluming too because I can.
What a world.
#84 habitt on 02.10.22 at 6:13 pm
Thanks. Luckily my taste for beer came back. Along with it came my ability to smell my own BO. Take the good with the bad I guess.
Thanks for the humor Flop. Fishman, if I waited until Ryan was in a bad mood before thanking him, that would be self-serving.
Waaaaay too much from me today.
LMAO, Ryan you have no clue what happened in Gamestop/AMC, etc and what has continued to happen all of last year … naked shorting, synthetic shares, blatant manipulation, removing the BUY button..etc etc….do some research …. AMC is going to squeeze here soon in the next few months….this post won’t age well…
#87 Flop… on 02.10.22 at 6:34 pm
Since Faron voted me 2022 GreaterFool’s Most Likeliest To Make Him Laugh, I’ll try and lighten the mood between The Bert And Ernie of the blog.
Hey Faron, did you here Dutch authorities decided not to rush putting that bridge back up after Jeff Bezos’s super-yacht passes under so Sail Aways ego can go through any time it likes…
M47BC
********
I was thinking:
Tom and Jerry or
Tweety and Sylvester
But settled on
Leghorn Foghorn and the Barnyard Dog!
If they team up they are a shoe in for Heckle and Jeckle.
Will Sir Conrad Black of High Tower, soon write an opinion piece on the fifteen boxes of documents that showed up at Mara Lago?
well, when it come to fools and their money, they are soon parted… well, that’s what happens…
Where’s Garth?
The Canada 5-year bond yield is jumping.
Brace for impact.
The Southern Ontario Housing Market is above the parameters on that graph (i.e. off the charts).
Lot of calls lately for washing machine clogs – pulling out dollar bills.
#85 cuke and tomato picker on 02.10.22 at 6:26 pm
We do not smoke, drink or have anything to do with cannabis. However when it became legal both cannabis
and later the edibles were popular stocks to buy. It does not look like these stocks which we AVOIDED have paid off as predicted.
**************
Weed stocks were the new flash in the pan just because it was legal. The ones that realized that, got out with profits. When everyone is winning I start looking at the exits. I got burned in the dot.com days, at least I was young and just lost my gains.
‘You’ve got to know when to hold em
Know when to fold them
Know when to walk away…’
#85 cuke and tomato picker on 02.10.22 at 6:26 pm
We do not smoke, drink or have anything to do with cannabis. However when it became legal both cannabis
and later the edibles were popular stocks to buy. It does not look like these stocks which we AVOIDED have paid off as predicted.
===========================
They paid off if you bail out on the parabolic moves.
It pure human psychology. When anything becomes a mania you better bail or put in a stop loss.
Dot com mania, weed mania all nuts.
Media and Wall street push this as there is so much greed out there its disgusting.
If we didn’t have the internet we would not have most of the problems these days Including a refugee problem, human trafficking ect ect Its the medium of choice for cheap plentiful access to everything.
#90 DON on 02.10.22 at 7:40 pm
=================
LOL just saw that Don.
I almost put know when to holdem and foldem quote.
#88 All lies …sweet truck.
Nukes(fusion someday _ see jet tokamak news and iter ) …yes. hydrogen …no
….
86 gravy. Some good points but ..energy production coincides with peak demand… is exactly false in cold climates obvoiusly.
Nevada sun reqd to really make it work.
85 pickler. …We do not smoke, drink or have anything to do with cannabis.
Despite those flaws you still seem nice!
There’s always time to learn new skills
The pot bubble was the strongest shorting opportunity I’ve seen in 30 years of watching markets and likely ever will again.(am a bit of an expert in this area)100s of billions in market cap was chasing a sub3 billion market. I tried to find put options but couldn’t. We do have the very best prices on the planet for very good weed.
Best deal is grey market if you’re looking.
Roll out the barrel, and tune your iPad to this while partaking of its contents:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3217H8JppI
Use headphones, and be sure to crank it up for movement #2 “ Scherzo” at 16.00.
Bloody sweet!
Dear Canadian:
I would like to remind you that our gov is working hard to make housing the only pillar of our country and perpetually increase its value.
1. We will always backstop the financial securitization of housing with tax dollars and take the risk off the table for our to-big-to-fail big banks to encourage home buying (insurance and direct mortgage bond buying and swapping).
2. We will tax every angle of housing development, capping supply and increasing demand.
3. We will keep the sale of our housing stock available for the world to purchase for whatever interests, including investment purposes (for a small tax fee that we can reinvest into increasing lending insurance guarantees).
4. We are working diligently with the BoC to keep rates low and keep the printing press running 24/7, which will increase the money in circulation and reduce the purchasing power of that money being used to further increase the sticker price of your home.
5. We are also bringing record level immigration to add to the low housing supply crunch and put the pressure on builders to start building at any cost. In the meantime, sleeping temporarily in a tent may be necessary until you cave into signing onto a massive mortgage and carry massive debt load. Don’t worry about higher interest rates. Your rent paid to the hedge fund landlord is accelerating much faster.
Nobody likes owning a house worth less than a million dollars.
But I urge you to be patient and remember this.
We will eventually get the value of every Canadian home up to 5 million dollars per unit.
Soon my friends, soon.
Faron, I gave up on getting 6%+ GIC, bond rates so I just cut a crap load of costs, expenses for years and managed to save $400,000 in 13 years in my RRSP, TFSA 85% of all my money, $71,000 in cash investments 15% of all my money. They re all in 3.11% to 3.57% GICs, mostly all tax sheltered and reinvested all the RRSP tax refunds. My debt, mortgage is paid off last year and now boosted my monthly savings of not paying a mortgage payment so it is $60,000 a year versus in which $6,500 a year is my RRSP tax refund. I would not be surprised we see 4.5%+ provincial bond rates and 3.75% to 4% GIC rates next year. I am 34 now but by 44 to 45 I am looking at $1.5 million for sure.
#101 DON
#85 cuke and tomato picker
,……………………………………..
Some weed stocks are good for a swing trade as long as they have consistent earnings each qtr. Dump them for a profit around quarterly earnings release time and let the shorts take them back down … then start over again…just don’t hold them long term.
Alot of people will be soon losing their homes in the US as 5.5% to 6% mortgage rates will be here in the next 12 to 18 months and will sink alot of homeowners plus the combined double yammy of much higher taxes, living costs, inflation not see in decades. It is going to be really bad. The debt freeloaders are going to finally get it.
So I go over to Visual Capitalist to re-jog my memory on what companies they focused on in this recent story to see if any correlation with Rhino’s effort today.
Nope, the investing world has moved on
“Seeing Red: Is the Heydey of Pandemic Stocks Over?”
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/seeing-red-is-the-heydey-of-pandemic-stocks-over/
Then this article jumped out at me because I don’t remember seeing it when it first came out.
I checked for the usual suspects, Canada and Australia.
“How People Around the World Feel About Their Economic Prospects.”
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-people-around-the-world-feel-about-their-economic-prospects/
So the gap between Australia and Canada wasn’t that big but Canada was written in red writing.
Was does this mean?
In Canada, Italy, France,Germany, Netherlands, Japan, United States, Malaysia and China economic optimism is at an all time low.
Canada only dropped down one percentage point though in the 12 month period, compared that to the more volatile China that wiped 8% of its economic fuzzy good- times dashboard.
Indonesia jumped a massive 11% during the pandemic, no less, passing where 4 out of 5 people have hope for the future.
Still not as optimistic as Columbia though.
That could be the cocaine doing the talking…
M47BC
#99 Garth’ Son Drake
“The Canada 5-year bond yield is jumping.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Sure is….
,i> #96 DON on 02.10.22 at 7:27 pm
#87 Flop… on 02.10.22 at 6:34 pm
Since Faron voted me 2022 GreaterFool’s Most Likeliest To Make Him Laugh, I’ll try and lighten the mood between The Bert And Ernie of the blog.
Hey Faron, did you here Dutch authorities decided not to rush putting that bridge back up after Jeff Bezos’s super-yacht passes under so Sail Aways ego can go through any time it likes…
M47BC
********
I was thinking:
Tom and Jerry or
Tweety and Sylvester
But settled on
Leghorn Foghorn and the Barnyard Dog!
If they team up they are a shoe in for Heckle and Jeckle.
The Roadrunner and the Coyote?
Beep, beep.
I remember my grandfather taught me one thing of people. The more they talk and say they know what is best for you run far, run really far. He died 6 years ago a multi-millionaire with a house, no debt at all, a bunch of money in the bank, savings bonds, a wife and 4 kids left with a bunch of money and insurance proceeds when most Canadians live in or near a lower standard of living than they were when working even with Canadian social programs, pensions. He started his welding business with $1,000 back in 1966 and he would ashamed of what a bunch of Canadians believe in now, socialism, Trudeau, Freeland, NDP complainers. There are too many losers who think the government can make them winners. They are are living in delusion land.
74 nonplussed…..We are unlikely to make any serious progress, because all the good dam sites are dammed, and wind and solar don’t work…
Maybe add,
*** in all places and at all times, making them unsuitable as a primary source ***
If god given resources in sufficient quantities exist it can work on a local scale ie. Bc and que – hydro nevada/az/ca – sun
Uk -wind (flew back last nite from 2 weeks there and saw HUGE offshore farms. I did not know wind made any real serious power but apparently its 24% in uk which is massive. If you havent done london you must. just bring big bucks. Costs are 150% of vancouver for most things.
A fusion tokamak (jet) just made enough energy to boil like 60 kettles. The baby steps are coming more quickly.
101 DON. I got burned in the dot.com days, at least I was young and just lost my gains
Same. Big up. Big down. My luck was i quit my job in ’99. Stonks ever since. Was poor for a bit but deliriously happy. These days warren buffet is my main portfolio guy. Im 70/30. 70 brkb and 30 zeo(oil etf i learned right here thx garth)
Sleep easy. Killing it lately . Did get some amzn sub 2800 on the fb shitjicking the other day.
Profitless bubbly stuff always has a sell by date.
Rates got goosed today. More coming. Nasdaq more pain. Trust warren.
Just ate another millennial for lunch today. Why do they idolize our low cost lifestyles so much?
Most GIC rates are higher right now than provincial bond yields but 19 year provincial strip bonds are around 3.15% to 3.20%. I would not be surprised these will be 4.5% to 4.75% by this time next year, 2023-February maybe May-2023 the latest. An RRSP, RESP, RDSP and TFSA could be a good for these.
Money, Money Money…
#100 Washing Machine Repair Man on 02.10.22 at 7:35 pm
The Southern Ontario Housing Market is above the parameters on that graph (i.e. off the charts).
Lot of calls lately for washing machine clogs – pulling out dollar bills.
**************************************
Happening in Alberta too because we are awash in money due to the high oil prices. Money sloshing around all over. Threatening to eliminate deficit. Sent some truck loads of the stuff to Quebec but they got diverted to Ottawa.
#5 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 02.10.22 at 9:06 am
Classic FOMO – let’s get in at the top, brah!!
The trifecta of guest posts is now complete, and I wonder if I will have to go cold turkey tomorrow or the cycle begins anew? There’s always the small possibility of a guest poster, in which case, my inconsequential vote’s for tractor guy
——— –
Ha! Mr. T keeps my knuckle dragging tendencies well hidden via regular ghostings of my (often drunken) postings. I try to keep things fair, but with a little help from Mr. Cabernet Sauvignon, things tend to go off the rails right quick. If I were offered a blog post right now, it would 100% be on the convoy. Probably nothing G would want to hear right now! :)
#83 wallflower on 02.10.22 at 6:09 pm
Another fad for sure is specuvesting 1B1B condos.
In my city, they are queuing up on MLS rental.
NOT renting. Sitting.
DOMs growing ever longer.
Occasional price drop.
Will this become the rout of the plunge?
————————————————–
Go on Redfin, 1B1B are selling over asking!
I just looked today and a ton of recently sold places SOLD Over Asking $85,000+. Its nuts now. Officially.
One 1B1B was $110,000 over asking, and these are condos that are listed at 400 – 500Gs ?!?! When places are selling over asking… likely no plunge.
#85 cuke and tomato
We do not smoke, drink or have anything to do with cannabis.
Well SHOCK AND AWE – never saw that coming LOL
Too bad the same can’t be said for houses…
Thanks Ryan – good story. Enjoyed the human element.
=============
#86 Gravy Train on 02.10.22 at 6:30 pm
…
Rooftop solar energy provides numerous benefits to power companies to meet government goals: a) the energy supply is free of carbon emissions; b) there is no energy production cost; c) the lifetime of a solar array is far longer than other energy production systems; d) less energy in the power grid is lost over transmission lines; e) energy production coincides with peak demand; f) there’s no noise pollution; g) its scalability, modularity and flexibility means it’s simpler, easier and cheaper to meet energy needs, esp. in remote locations; h) the efficiency and security of the power grid is improved by helping to protect against blackouts, voltage dips, overloads and fires; i) its energy supply is inexhaustible (and not subject to market price fluctuations); and j) the installations promote local job creation.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Indeed there is a place for rooftop solar. Can make financial sense (without subsidies) in very sunny climate, and in others can be beneficial for diversity of supply or simply makes one feel good. I am all for it.
However, the world cannot move beyond fossil fuels by wind & solar (or geothermal, waves, etc). Those are all unreliable and intermittent, and cannot make up the majority of the grid. They are also far too low density (take up too much land). I would also not agree on the claim of longevity – solar panels are 20-25 years max, which is far less then a NG or nuclear plant.
The only (for real) way to displace majority of fossil fuel is with nuclear power. Full stop. It is not even a debate. Intermittent, replaceable (every 20 years), “renewables” cannot get there. Not even close.
In the battle between platitudes and physics – physics wins every time…
This is relevant to today’s topic and I hinted at it earlier.
One of my favourite fundamental stock analysis Twitter follows, @keubiko, has a running theme: Adventures in Gooberland in which he lampoons his favourite stock shill (TSLA bull Gerber Kawasaki) by tracking Gerber’s tweets. I decided to spend some time this evening to put together a bit from a certain single stock investor who comments here (name redacted). This illustrates the thought process on the way up for bubble stocks and the utter silence on the way down. Not a peep since June, I believe.
Here’s what I call Adventures in Sagiland as it pertains to BlackBerry, one of the meme stocks (that may now be at a decent valuation). There’s a bonus comment at the end very relevant to the freedom convoy nonsense.
SAGI — 01.14.21: “I think BB is a sleeper that’s waking up.”
SAGI — 01.20.21: “Blackberry is starting to fly. A Canadian bright spark. Pay attention.”
Faron — 01.21.21: “r/wallstreetbets will go hard on the week expiring near the money calls and force gamma squeezes that reflect absolutely nothing about the company’s fundamentals. 3 weeks later their attention will drift away and BB will fade back to oblivion” [was 20% lower 3 weeks later]
SAGI — 01.21.21: “Not my expectation since fundamentals have improved greatly, but I don’t daytrade and rarely swing trade. Let’s revisit in a year.” [it’s down 40% or so since then, but in fairness spiked from $12US to $25US after this]
SAGI — 05.28.21: “Blackberry continuing the third day of big volume and outsized leaps. Will it have legs? Some predict yes…”
SAGI — 06.01.21: “Hmmm… is Blackberry returning as a Canadian success story? Nice to see the business fundamentals are being recognized.”
SAGI — 06.08.21: “Today may be the day Blackberry reaches orbit. Just printing $.”
SAGI — 06.08.21 [at the dead-nuts top of BlackBerry from which it has fallen >50%]: “Now, meme stocks: Yowza! This is fun. Every morning is like SA Christmas. My son has been joining as well. Being a bad influence has been a rewarding bonding experience. Highly recommended.”
Oh, I found this while I was digging up the BlackBerry comments.
SAGI — 06.30.21 at 3:46 pm: “Democracy’s biggest current threat is tolerance of militant social justice warriors who actively break laws and deny their neighbours’ rights.“
#104 Bdwy on 02.10.22 at 8:02 pm
#88 All lies …sweet truck.
Nukes(fusion someday _ see jet tokamak news and iter ) …yes. hydrogen …no
….
86 gravy. Some good points but ..energy production coincides with peak demand… is exactly false in cold climates obvoiusly.
Nevada sun reqd to really make it work.
85 pickler. …We do not smoke, drink or have anything to do with cannabis.
Despite those flaws you still seem nice!
There’s always time to learn new skills
The pot bubble was the strongest shorting opportunity I’ve seen in 30 years of watching markets and likely ever will again.(am a bit of an expert in this area)100s of billions in market cap was chasing a sub3 billion market. I tried to find put options but couldn’t. We do have the very best prices on the planet for very good weed.
Best deal is grey market if you’re looking.
*******
85 pickler…ah ha ha ha ha!
The grey market has more quality for sure. BC is leaning to allow more micro mom pop growers to attract them to the legal taxable market.
DELETED
Via BBC News
Russian Foreign Minister meets with British counterpart over Ukraine.
When asked how the meeting went, Mr. Lavrov replied ‘It was like a deaf person talking to a mute’ lmao…ah ha ha
The Boris Johnson take the pressure off side show.
118 IHCTD9
“If I were offered a blog post right now, it would 100% be on the convoy. Probably nothing G would want to hear right now! :) ”
————————–
I thought your comment 100 yesterday was very astute
for a “red green” kind of feller. Kudos.
105 IHCTD9
Started catching up on my PVR but felt a nap coming on
so turned to the Galaxie chamber music station and woke up to a vaguely familiar tune. The info button told me it was Schumann Piano quintet. Checked my alphabetically ordered collection and verfied I did have
that particular one – opus 44.
I find piano quins almost hypnotic. Just the right amount of tunefulness and dynamics.
#39 Søren Angst on 02.10.22 at 1:50 pm
So far this year Dividends > Change in Market Value.
**************
Again, I ask:
How did you calculate this?
Did you take yearly dividend divided by 12 vs market change,
or
Did you simply take yearly dividend vs 1-month fluctuation in the market price?
There’s a Yuge difference…
#122 PastThePeak on 02.10.22 at 10:07 pm
That’s all you need to know. If it makes financial sense, then it’s the superior choice in capitalist systems. That it doesn’t emit as much CO2 is just a bonus.
All you armchair pundits forget the massive external costs that come with burning fossil fuels. That, currently, are paid for (i.e. through rebuilding after weather related disasters, crop insurance, healthcare costs) in a way that’s disconnected from the source. That will change soon.
This is such a naive argument. You do realise that huge amounts of capital has to flow into your “long lived” plants to keep them well maintained, staffed and operating, right? As well as a continuous stream of fuel that, at times like these, gets quite expensive. Give your head a shake man. Just ’cause a plant occupies the same space and has the same cooling towers year after year doesn’t make it free to operate. They literally burn materials to do their job.
Note that I am pro Nuclear.
They actually can get a good chunk of the way. Foot dragging that slows us from getting along that path is needlessly damaging
oops got the quote backwards… ‘mute talking to a deaf person’.
#126 DON on 02.10.22 at 11:27 pm
Via BBC News
Russian Foreign Minister meets with British counterpart over Ukraine.
When asked how the meeting went, Mr. Lavrov replied ‘It was like a deaf person talking to a mute’ lmao…ah ha ha
The Boris Johnson take the pressure off side show.
#118 IHCTD9 on 02.10.22 at 9:11 pm
If I were offered a blog post right now, it would 100% be on the convoy. Probably nothing G would want to hear right now! :)
———
I can attest to that per my most recent Delete award, heh.
Ah, turmoil!
But the drunken posts are the most truthful! RIP Smoking Man, wherever you are in the cosmic dust right now.
#73- No HST/GST on used residential .
When a builder pops the top off or extends the rear, they are still selling used residential vs. a new build which is taxable. In new residential, builder includes HST/GST in sale price and receives a rebate – Max rebate is 24k ,but tedious and requires the “builder” to report entire transaction to CRA ,as they should, but too many don’t . Also many are not registered and are “rogue” builders. Illegal, but most buyers don’t care.
As canada dithers, deflects and delays……
Finland orders new F-35 jets.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-sign-deal-bringing-us-built-stealth-jets-russian-border-2022-02-11/
We will be so far down the waiting list for new jets.
The average age of our pilots will be 1/2 the age of the F-18 they are flying.
One wonders when the plane manufacturer will pull a Microsoft and stop supporting them with parts….
If Ford gets tough with the protests he’s got a chance to get re-elected. I’m just saying most of the public will be with him on this.
#123 Faron on 02.10.22 at 10:36 pm
SA — 06.08.21: “Today may be the day Blackberry reaches orbit. Just printing $.”
SA — 06.08.21 [at the dead-nuts top of BlackBerry from which it has fallen >50%]: “Now, meme stocks: Yowza! This is fun. Every morning is like SA Christmas. My son has been joining as well. Being a bad influence has been a rewarding bonding experience. Highly recommended.”
———
Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Yes, the timing was exquisite. A great bonding memory my son and I will share forever.
One of the reasons my taxes are so insanely high this year, actually.
#123 Faron on 02.10.22 at 10:36 pm
SA — 06.30.21 at 3:46 pm: “Democracy’s biggest current threat is tolerance of militant social justice warriors who actively break laws and deny their neighbours’ rights.“
———
Thanks for reprinting that.
Absolutely. Lawbreaking and restricting the rights of others should not be tolerated.
I wonder about Ottawa’s will to act.
Covid data from Statistics Canada
To those interested: Fill your boots. See the tables.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220211/dq220211c-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan
Statistics Canada is impartial
Contrary to what many believe:
“Statistics Canada is leading the mini-campaign for the first principle [of statistics], which focuses on relevance, impartiality, and equal access.”
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220211/dq220211h-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan
Yes a lot of young people and some older people I know are stock picking thinking they are now day traders. Well to be honest I did that as well when I was young and stupid but got burned by dot com and bre x. Finally woke up after the 2008 crash and did the couch potato portfolio, and then really lucked out when I found this blog! I try and tell people there is no get rich quick scheme and that B&D is the way to go for most. Well they all roll their eyes at me but I smile while I sip my wine in poolside while they are at work. :) sigh you can’t fix stupid.
It looks like the no risk/no reward portfolio of putting away 10% a year($3000) for 30 years at 7% gives them $326,000.
The take a shot and profit and make $900,000 put that to work and add $3000 to that every year gets one $6,850,000.
They who dare, win
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJjKP8vYjpQ
#142 millmech on 02.11.22 at 11:45 am
It looks like the no risk/no reward portfolio of putting away 10% a year($3000) for 30 years at 7% gives them $326,000.
The take a shot and profit and make $900,000 put that to work and add $3000 to that every year gets one $6,850,000.
They who dare, win
——–
Yes! And when the game is won, the security portion is never again risked. Your life becomes totally and unequivocally free.
@ Millmech and SA Well that is the problem they don’t make smart moves and take it and put it to work. They throw it back into the market and lose it in a pump and dump scheme.
#144 Left GTA on 02.11.22 at 2:07 pm
@ Millmech and SA Well that is the problem they don’t make smart moves and take it and put it to work. They throw it back into the market and lose it in a pump and dump scheme.
———-
The point is that it’s not an either-or scenario. You can choose to take calculated risk and stockpile the windfall if you’re successful.
After that, your risks are not really risky since the cash is discretionary. For that matter, with a proven record of success, it’s easy enough to get others to share in putting up cash, so you gain leveraged reward at far lower risk.
@SA ok but most would be more foolish
Great post Ryan! One more factor to consider is that many amateur investors have been trading on margin because Robinhood makes it so easy. I have a friend who made a killing on meme stocks using a mixture of his own money and borrowed money from Robinhood, but sadly, just as the stocks started to plumet, Robinhood made their margin calls and he was forced to sell at a major, major loss. It’s a sad but cautionary tale for today’s amateur investors, never trade on margin.