Singin’ in the rain

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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January’s thankfully over. But such months are the market’s way of checking to see if we’re all still awake.

Putin lined up more troops on the Ukraine border (and brought in, ominously, blood and medical supplies), US inflation hit a vertigo-inducing 7% annual rate and, to further feed the market’s anxiety, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said—with extraordinary directness for a central banker—“we’ll be raising rates over the course of the year”. Investor reaction was predictable: sell everything.

The end result was a 5% drop for the S&P 500, including an intra-month plunge of more than 10%, and—the double whammy—losses for most bond indices as well (albeit more modest declines).

However, one asset class held in well: Canadian preferred shares, which managed to trade flat.

This is a handy benefit of a diversified portfolio—even in bad months there’ll be something that performs relatively well. But the inclusion of Canadian preferred shares in our client portfolios has been part of a much longer and carefully planned interest-rate-hedging strategy.

In short, when interest rates and bond yields move higher, Canadian preferred shares do well.

Why? The Canadian preferred share market is about 79% weighted to rate-resets. Most rate-reset preferreds have their dividends indirectly pegged to the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield. If bond yields rise, preferred dividends are ‘reset’ higher, usually at a predetermined spread above the 5-year bond yield. So not only are investors getting a better monthly or quarterly payout, but price appreciation is likely as well. It’s no different than a company raising its dividend: the improved payout is the first benefit, but a higher share price is likely the other.

And given Canada’s booming economy (Canada created a record 886,000 new jobs in 2021, for instance) and similar inflation problem to the US, the Bank of Canada will soon be joining most of the other major central banks with benchmark interest-rate increases (see chart). Naturally, this threatens to drive the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield even higher. A good thing for preferred share owners.

Expectations for benchmark interest rates from major central banks

Source: Raymond James

But there’s another lesser-known source of potential price appreciation for preferreds: redemptions. Redemptions occur when issuers exercise their right to have shareholders sell back their shares at a set price, effectively eliminating a particular series of preferreds from the market. The Canadian preferred share sector had about $8.9 billion worth of redemptions last year alone. This is significant given that the entire market cap of the Canadian preferred share sector is less than $60 billion. The potential exists for another $8 billion or so of redemptions this year. We’ve already seen three series of preferred shares redeemed in January.

Why are preferreds being aggressively redeemed? The redemptions are occurring mainly in the banking sector, which is the largest segment of the preferred share market. A ruling from the Canadian banking regulator in 2020 gave a particular class of debt security called Limited Recourse Capital Notes (LRCNs) equal stature to rate-reset preferreds in terms of calculating a bank’s capital requirements. Features of the LRCNs can be more favourable to an issuer than those of rate-reset preferreds, particularly from a taxation perspective, so the predictable is occurring: LRCNs are being issued and preferred shares are being called.

A called pref can lead to an immediate capital gain—the average price of a Canadian preferred share sits at around $23 and call prices are typically at par values of $25 or greater. But redemptions also reduce the number of available preferred shares on the market. In other words, more money chases less supply, which results in, you guessed it, higher preferred share prices.

All of the above contributed to a nearly 20% total-return gain for the Canadian preferred share market last year. Some of the interest-rate/bond-yield upside has, naturally, been priced in to preferred share prices. After all, the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield has risen from about 1.2% to 1.7% in just the past few months. However, not all of it has. The last Bank of Canada tightening cycle (2015–18; five benchmark rate increases) saw the Government of Canada 5-year bond yield peak near 2.5%. Five BoC interest-rate increases this year isn’t a certainty, but it’s a likelihood.

We also don’t yet know how inflation will respond to higher rates. If it turns out that central banks have moved late with their rate action and inflation persists, we could have benchmark interest rates moving higher well into 2023. This hasn’t been priced into the preferred share market.

But regardless, preferred share yields are attractive at nearly 4% (if owned through a broadly diversified ETF). There are worse things than collecting a yield 3x greater than, say, a 3-year big-bank GIC while waiting for the inflation picture to come into focus. Here are RBC’s current GIC rates, for example, as a point of comparison: https://www.rbcroyalbank.com/investments/gic-rates.html

Persistently higher interest rates aren’t a certainty, but if the sky turns dark, the wind picks up and you hear thunder, it’s probably going to rain.

Think of preferred shares as your portfolio umbrella.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

117 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 02.09.22 at 9:04 am

The Guest Bloggers (forever known as the ‘New guys’, according to blog lore) are in overdrive.

–Tesla….again. At some point it will drown in lawsuits.

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-chip-shortage-fix-was-to-pull-steering-components-1848498652
The change could pose safety concerns and puts CEO Elon Musk’s promise of over the air-only software updates for Full Self-Driving in jeopardy

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-fsd-beta-caught-hitting-something-on-camera-for-t-1848491265
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Beta veered a Model 3 off the road and into a bollard separating a protected bike lane

—- Control over our Feeding. Meat slowing being phased out/banned; our rulers want us like animals eating bugs. ADM is an agricultural giant:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/flies-for-breakfast-archer-daniels-partners-with-biotech-company-to-bring-insects-to-pet-food-with-human-food-on-the-horizon-11644345661
“Flies for breakfast? Insects are about to be pet food, and the effort will aim for human plates as well”

—-
—-Who?

“Toronto-based Equitable Group Inc. says it has agreed to acquire digital rival Concentra for $470 million, a move that will make it Canada’s seventh-largest bank.

Saskatoon-based Concentra, which rebranded as Wyth Financial in 2021, is the country’s 13th-largest schedule I bank with $11.3 billion in assets. Equitable is also purchasing Concentra Trust, known as Wyth Trust. (investmentexecutive.com)

#2 Charity on 02.09.22 at 9:14 am

First…… (after 14 years always wanted to do that)

Hi Doug
I noticed Altagas called in it’s series k for these notes. What happens to the etfs if all companies go this route?
Glad to see finances are to soup du jour. Great job.

#3 LH on 02.09.22 at 9:17 am

Still limit long stocks and real estate, the only way to be. Risk reset prefs are good for the less adventurous.

#4 TurnerNation on 02.09.22 at 9:27 am

The FUTURE: – Your Smart Cities are coming. As we know the A.I. is running this global ‘New System’. Big tech is in control. Expect more monitoring, electronic control. Governments exist only the write the cheques for this stuff.

— That cold week of March 2020 dozens of now-empty downtown intersections were torn up, telecom contractors rapidly lay the new fibre for the 5G control network. I saw it myself. What timing guys.

Today:
“Telus Corp. is partnering with Google Cloud and NXN Digital to deliver the next generation of sustainable, efficient, secure and innovative Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that will empower businesses, communities and their residents through a vast ecosystem of people-first solutions… the three organizations are transforming the way municipalities operate in our increasingly digital world.”
“Telus smart city solutions fall within four foundational pillars….”
“Public safety and security: Smart city solutions that contribute to public safety and security include advanced video systems that provide not only on-premise security, but video and data analytics.”
—-
—- Why are the provinces backing off? Because the Digital ID is in place and rolled out. You got one. Our forum host mentioned he had to upload his to travel

It was right in front of us. https://id2020.org/ March 2020 was the global kickoff.

Close to home:
https://diacc.ca/

#5 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 02.09.22 at 10:28 am

Step 2 (of 12) of the greaterfool withdrawal program is another morning post! You guys never fail to impress.

I understand that preferreds are typically priced at $25 par, but is it possible to determine how far away from “par” a preferred ETF is? For example, CPD is near $14, but I can’t imagine if all of the preferreds contained inside were redeemed, that this ETF would be trading at $25 as well…thanks for your clarification!

#6 Chris on 02.09.22 at 10:49 am

Been reading this blog on and off for many years. Got to admit I follow almost none of the recommendations. However I did buy a preferred ETF (my only ETF) a few years back when the price tanked, and it’s been a good holding. Thanks for that idea and for the explanation of preferreds today.

#7 John Lately on 02.09.22 at 10:58 am

Marc Carney said it was more important to give oil and gas profits to third world countries than it was to keep Albertsons working and for resource revenue to stay in Canada.

Trudeau obviously buys into that because Canadas energy complex has been mortally gored by the Greta Twins, the Justin and Gerry Show.

Canada can ‘substitute’ . Workers will go elsewhere, into the marijuana fields or sticking solar tiles on suburban rooftops. Never mind the wage cap. Canada is a low wage country don’t you know?

Canada has plenty of room for added taxation. Somalia doesn’t. So what globalists explain is that they can dig the dirty wealth while Albertas clean ethical oil can be left in the ground.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil-edges-higher-after-report-points-to-falling-u-s-stockpiles-1.1720470

Now we see that classic treason again. Biden wants to give Iran the nuke Obama promised them and billions in oil revenues while Canadians starve and Europeans shiver to death. This is how globalists think. To hell with Alberta workers and Israel’s security.

And you wonder why the protests against Trudeau are building?

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 11:03 am

Very useful information about preferred shares.
I’ll discuss it with my better side, who is in charge of investments and finances.
Never stop learning.

#9 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 11:09 am

#4 TurnerNation on 02.09.22 at 9:27 am
The FUTURE: – Your Smart Cities are coming. As we know the A.I. is running this global ‘New System’. Big tech is in control. Expect more monitoring, electronic control. Governments exist only the write the cheques for this stuff.
———————
The future:
Smart Cities full of stupid people.
Sure, bring it on.
People worry about Big Government.
Big Tech worries me more.

#10 Doug in London on 02.09.22 at 11:31 am

It wasn’t that long ago a lot of whiners here in the steerage section were complaining about the “poor performance” of these ETFs, despite the fact they paid out good monthly dividends. They were like those huge generators at Bruce Power, humming along night and day producing reliable base load power to keep the lights on. Seems like a good investment to me.

#11 FriedEggs on 02.09.22 at 11:34 am

Basically the children of the future will need to make at least $100 per hour if they want any chance at living poor.

How deep are you in your spiritual investments? Completely decayed or non existent? The abyss is waiting.

#12 XEQT and chill on 02.09.22 at 11:49 am

Pretty much anything has beaten preferred shares over the long run. Go to portfoliovisualizer.com and see for yourself:

VAB beats ZPR, and is less volatile.
ZWC beats ZPR, and didn’t crash as hard
VFV beats ZPR, and didn’t go negative since 2012 unlike ZPR.

Talking about a good calendar year when the long term is crap is disingenuous.

#13 Another Deckchair on 02.09.22 at 12:00 pm

Hey #7 John Lately;

“sticking solar tiles on suburban rooftops”

My yearly indicator of when winter starts is when the neighbours’ 2nd story roof-mounted solar panels get covered in snow; I know summer is on it’s way when the ice and snow finally melts. Still fully covered as of this morning.

Going green is easy on paper, it’s the details that get you.

Investing content: Clean energy is tough. Tougher than the Big Government lets on. Expect smoke and mirrors, see through it, and invest accordingly.

#14 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 12:03 pm

Thanks Doug!

Preferred shares. My move into prefs was June 2019, as (of course, for legitimacy) noted here when done. Capital appreciation from those stand at:

BBD.PR.D +64%
TA.PR.J +35%
BAM.PR.S +45%
TA.PR.H +48%
ALA.PR.G +50%
CPD +15%
ZPR +19%

…at an average overall yield of 6.2%, resulting in a total 32 month return for the whole kit and kaboodle of 56%, or CAGR of 18%.

Not bad for fixed income allocation. Not bad at all.

Prefs have been flattish for the last 6-7 months, but still churning out the yield.

#15 willworkforpickles on 02.09.22 at 12:04 pm

“If it turns out that central banks have moved late with their rate action and inflation persists, we could have benchmark interest rates moving higher well into 2023.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………

I have come to the above conclusion in a number of recent comments here.

A few quarter point rate increases in 2022 won’t put a dent in inflation as monetary policy is forward looking projecting future inflation. There is much inflation to work its way through the system to come still.
The tiny rate increases so tiny will likely add to inflationary pressures later on than help cool it down.
The Fed is attempting to provide an elixir of a modicum of dis-inflation to balance the markets for now , but its little more than smoke and mirrors the market still seems jittery about at best.
Real inflation is going to snowball making it hard/impossible for the Fed to convince anyone the skewed CPI rate of inflation is coming down anytime soon. Interest rates are indeed going to be pressured upwards into 2023, and likely at .50 increments then.
Stormier seas lay ahead for 2023.

#16 Hans on 02.09.22 at 12:23 pm

Best ideas for etf exposure to preferreds? Or individual company prefs?

#17 SoggyShorts on 02.09.22 at 12:25 pm

#21 Søren Angst on 02.08.22 at 12:33 pm
High dividend ETFs the ticket. So far up YTD thanks to this equation:

Dividends > Change in Market Value.
******************
I’m curious, how did you calculate that?

Did you remember to take the annual dividend and divide it by 12 first, or did you straight compare 1 month’s change to 12 months dividends?

#18 Doug Rowat on 02.09.22 at 12:41 pm

#5 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 02.09.22 at 10:28 am
Step 2 (of 12) of the greaterfool withdrawal program is another morning post! You guys never fail to impress.

I understand that preferreds are typically priced at $25 par, but is it possible to determine how far away from “par” a preferred ETF is? For example, CPD is near $14, but I can’t imagine if all of the preferreds contained inside were redeemed, that this ETF would be trading at $25 as well…thanks for your clarification!

—-

ETF prices don’t directly cross over to ‘average’ preferred share prices. Therefore ETF prices can’t be used to determine potential call upside.

—Doug

#19 Flop… on 02.09.22 at 12:54 pm

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 11:03 am
Very useful information about preferred shares.
I’ll discuss it with my better side, who is in charge of investments and finances.
Never stop learning.

//////////////////

You’re going to discuss this with Uncle Crowdie?

Well, I never…

M47BC

#20 Faron on 02.09.22 at 1:17 pm

#13 Sail Away on 02.08.22 at 11:24 am

the ETF is +23% and pays no dividend. Both good choices.

XBM has a 2.8% 12m trailing yield. Recent distribution was 6.29% annualized. The ETF was (and is) the better, lower risk, choice.

#21 Faron on 02.09.22 at 1:19 pm

#66 Sail Away on 02.08.22 at 6:14 pm

Frantic politicians to truckers: ‘Go home! You can’t be here you bad, evil, (list of all possible -ists and isms). Invoking the mighty power of outrage, we insist you WILL leave!’

Stunningly hypocritical from a guy who couldn’t stand CHOP/CHAZ and spoke vehemently about clearing it out. Just incredible.

#22 Observer on 02.09.22 at 1:44 pm

#21 Faron on 02.09.22 at 1:19 pm
#66 Sail Away on 02.08.22 at 6:14 pm

Frantic politicians to truckers: ‘Go home! You can’t be here you bad, evil, (list of all possible -ists and isms). Invoking the mighty power of outrage, we insist you WILL leave!’

Stunningly hypocritical from a guy who couldn’t stand CHOP/CHAZ and spoke vehemently about clearing it out. Just incredible.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Some people enjoy seeing democracy attacked and weakened while they get richer and richer.

#23 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 1:49 pm

#21 Faron on 02.09.22 at 1:19 pm
#66 Sail Away on 02.08.22 at 6:14 pm

Frantic politicians to truckers: ‘Go home! You can’t be here you bad, evil, (list of all possible -ists and isms). Invoking the mighty power of outrage, we insist you WILL leave!’

———

Stunningly hypocritical from a guy who couldn’t stand CHOP/CHAZ and spoke vehemently about clearing it out. Just incredible.

———

Well, except for those murders and sexual assaults at CHOP/CHAZ.

I understand that’s pretty much the same to a radical leftist as carefully placing a toque and upside down flag on Mr. Fox’s statue, but the truth is that murder is quite significantly different for non-crazies.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/7/2/21310109/chop-chaz-cleared-violence-explained

I promise to revoke my general acceptance of the convoy if rape and murder starts. Deal?

#24 Doug Rowat on 02.09.22 at 1:55 pm

#12 XEQT and chill on 02.09.22 at 11:49 am

Talking about a good calendar year when the long term is crap is disingenuous.

—-

Pref weightings should be adjusted over time. No claim here otherwise.

But cherry-picking outperformers with the benefit of hindsight bias would be disingenuous too, no?

—Doug

#25 Slim on 02.09.22 at 2:04 pm

How long before the armed forces are called in to help clear out the rabble in Ottawa and Windsor, before the economy takes too big of a hit?

#26 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 2:09 pm

24 Doug Rowat on 02.09.22 at 1:55 pm
#12 XEQT and chill on 02.09.22 at 11:49 am

Talking about a good calendar year when the long term is crap is disingenuous.

—-

Pref weightings should be adjusted over time. No claim here otherwise.

But cherry-picking outperformers with the benefit of hindsight bias would be disingenuous too, no?

—Doug
———————
Exactly my point about stock pickers.
Never hear about those who lost their shirts.

#27 Weltschmerz on 02.09.22 at 2:16 pm

Hello Doug. Very informative blog post.

I have a question for you or whoever wants to answer. You said: “In short, when interest rates and bond yields move higher, Canadian preferred shares do well”

So, in an environment like we have today in Canada where higher rates are almost guaranteed why wouldn’t we just highly weight our portfolio in preferred shares? Sounds like its a win-win….

#28 Celine on 02.09.22 at 2:26 pm

Doug, thanks for the detailed overview of preferred shares and the forecast. This was very informative.

#29 Faron on 02.09.22 at 2:35 pm

#23 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 1:49 pm

First, the record here was that I was pro CHOP more or less and am also pro demonstration in Ottawa (even though I think the message and people carrying it are idiots).

How about non-hypocritical consistency from you? It would look like this: illegal blockades are illegal and should be stopped. But that’s not what we are getting from you (no surprise). We are getting CHAZ was bad (because reasons) but truckers good because they are slightly less violent. You are either law and order or you are not. You don’t get to pick based on politics who has to follow the laws and who doesn’t.

And to that end: attempted arson on behalf of the “truckers” is cool? And assaulting people who are wearing masks, who are reporting, who are simply shooting video is fine? Breaking the law is okay as long as there aren’t any incidental big, American city-related issues (in Ottawa, where gun regulations make shootings far far less likely)? Did you even read the VOX article? Here’s a quote:

violence against women, which some residents told Vox was a problem in the neighborhood (a nightlife hot spot in the city) even before CHOP was established

You pretend to be a neutral purveyor of truth but you are a right wing shill no better than lefties who silo themselves.

#30 Faron on 02.09.22 at 2:58 pm

#23 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 1:49 pm

It’s also amazing that you will leverage sexual abuse allegations as credible if it benefits your point of view, but utterly deny them if the allegations are against someone you admire and are thrown out for however bare a reason.

There’s also this:

https://ottawa.citynews.ca/local-news/enough-is-enough-national-victim-advocacy-group-says-about-trucker-convoy-protests-5030626

and this:

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/geiger-bardswich-but-did-he-hit-you-the-parallels-between-the-freedom-convoy-and-domestic-violence

#31 Suspender defender on 02.09.22 at 3:11 pm

Personally, I prefer the blogs written by our stable of ghostwriters. Much more Informative, less repetitive and far less controversial and divisive by all accounts.

Please don’t tell Mr. Big. He needs his “me” time!

#32 Gentlemen prefer preferreds on 02.09.22 at 3:22 pm

#27 Weltschmerz on 02.09.22 at 2:16 pm
Hello Doug. Very informative blog post.

I have a question for you or whoever wants to answer. You said: “In short, when interest rates and bond yields move higher, Canadian preferred shares do well”

So, in an environment like we have today in Canada where higher rates are almost guaranteed why wouldn’t we just highly weight our portfolio in preferred shares? Sounds like its a win-win….
_________

Because you read this blog to learn how to invest, not speculate.

I suggest you take the time to truly understand the nature of preferred shares from an unbiased source or two. The equity component of the security could get a real good haircut nearly similar to the common share. LRCNs may have contributed to any gains you made last year but they might not do that this year.

Finally, have a look at the track record of prefs before jumping in with both ballbearings.

#33 Doug Rowat on 02.09.22 at 3:29 pm

#27 Weltschmerz on 02.09.22 at 2:16 pm

So, in an environment like we have today in Canada where higher rates are almost guaranteed why wouldn’t we just highly weight our portfolio in preferred shares? Sounds like its a win-win….

—-

“Almost guaranteed” has ruined many an investor. Remember: interest rates are only at rock-bottom levels in the first place because the entirely unexpected occurred—Covid.

—Doug

#34 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.09.22 at 3:34 pm

A little piece on food inflation.
Listen to The Mikey Ds old CEO interview. Box of chicken was $40 now $170. NUTs… we live in the most unreported inflation in recent history.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/inflation/shrinkflation/
Good thing all those government workers got a pay increase while people had to lock their doors on their business’s.

#35 Plaid on 02.09.22 at 3:36 pm

#14 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 12:03 pm
Thanks Doug!

Preferred shares. My move into prefs was June 2019, as (of course, for legitimacy) noted here when ….

…at an average overall yield of 6.2%, resulting in a total 32 month return for the whole kit and kaboodle of 56%, or CAGR of 18%.

Not bad for fixed income allocation. Not bad at all.

_____________

Isn’t this guy the “genius” who was bragging how he was “rocking the casbah” with his ibonds jus a week ago?

Sounds like the fixed side of his portfolio is outperforming most of your equity portions!

And he still drives an outdated Tesla? Pity …

#36 Preferred Whiner on 02.09.22 at 3:45 pm

#10 Doug in London on 02.09.22 at 11:31 am

It wasn’t that long ago a lot of whiners here in the steerage section were complaining about the “poor performance” of these ETFs, despite the fact they paid out good monthly dividends. They were like those huge generators at Bruce Power, humming along night and day producing reliable base load power to keep the lights on. Seems like a good investment to me.

———-

Oh Doug. You’ve probably never taken 2 minutes to verify the performance of your beloved pref ETFs. Have a look at the 1, 5 and 10 year record of Canada’s oldest prefer ETF (hint: ishares) before getting on your high horse. Pay paticular attention to the one year record and it’s impact on the long term performance.

Then learn about LRCNs and decide if you want to tie your high horse to them.

While you are at it, read about a phenomenon called “confirmation bias”.

#37 Mother Truckers on 02.09.22 at 3:50 pm

#2 Charity on 02.09.22 at 9:14 am
First…… (after 14 years always wanted to do that)

_________

Please, no one break the news to him.

It’s bad enough being a loser, but being called out on a public forum as such might just push Charity to become a truck driving protestor!

#38 604_housing on 02.09.22 at 3:51 pm

So we are all on the same page- Garth taking a few days off to put together his run at the Cons Leadership?

#39 Paddy on 02.09.22 at 4:01 pm

Very informative post today Doug. Great job on hosting the podcast this week as well. Glad to have some exposure to prefs in my portfolio, via the prudent team at Turner Investments of course.

#40 Honest Realtor on 02.09.22 at 4:18 pm

Great advice about preferreds and investments, Doug.

Now here’s some fresh, breaking news math perspective on properties in Canada:

*BREAKING NEWS TODAY*

Canada’s population is right now about 37,000,000 and we are “the fastest-growing country in the G7”

The population growth rate here is TWICE that of the G7 average!

Wow!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/census-2021-release-population-cities-1.6344179

Expect about 50,000,000 in a decade or not much longer.

(This, btw, assumes just regular continuing immigration rates, not the highly likely explosion we are about to see – stay tuned for that upsurge)

Now, pause and just imagine what this will do to the demand for real estate……..

We will all live to see 50,000,000 in Canada.

Millennials today will live to see a country with 75,000,000 plus.

Real estate demand will help build the future for all of us and our heirs.

Invest in a B&D portfolio, by all means.

But don’t miss the historic opportunity to grow your wealth through property.

#41 Stealth on 02.09.22 at 4:20 pm

Thank you for the post and for stepping in.

Here is a real scenario:
Assume prefs we’re about 1/2 of fixed income side say 20% of the total portfolio and then in 2020 they dropped more than equities. Now portfolio risk looked like you were 80%+equities and only had remaining 20% left in bonds and cash to rebalance.
Needless to say one would not be a happy camper.

Folks can talk all they want about great dividend and 2 year performance and certainty of interest rate increases or anything else because I am certain the ones who felt the gut punch don’t and have cursed quite a bit.

Also if held in non registered account where you can realize the tax credit is also not great since the gross up increases your income disproportionately increasing tax and dividend tax credit is good but it does not lower the income back down.

So not all roses and sunshine, not at all.

Nevertheless it is a good post can’t debate that and thank you.
Please don’t leave as well.:)

#42 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.09.22 at 4:22 pm

Down with Trudeau please. He’s been a BIG part of the problem. Remember when flights from China we going to be stopped when the bug hit. He called it racist. LOL
Mr Disaster.
I’ve said it for years. I’m done and we are not going to take it anymore.

#43 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 4:41 pm

#35 Plaid on 02.09.22 at 3:36 pm

Isn’t [SA] the “genius” who was bragging how he was “rocking the casbah” with his ibonds jus a week ago?

——–

???

Strange characterization as bragging genius for ibonds, which do indeed pay an absolutely secure 7.12%.

Informational, nothing more. Because I care.

#44 Doug Rowat on 02.09.22 at 4:53 pm

#36 Preferred Whiner on 02.09.22 at 3:45 pm

———-

Oh Doug. You’ve probably never taken 2 minutes to verify the performance of your beloved pref ETFs. Have a look at the 1, 5 and 10 year record of Canada’s oldest prefer ETF (hint: ishares) before getting on your high horse. Pay paticular attention to the one year record and it’s impact on the long term performance.

—-

10 years ago? The pref market was entirely different. Show me where I wrote about prefs 10 years ago.

And the one year of great returns is now almost 2 years. You’re looking at the long-term performance of an asset class that had an entirely different structure in the past to undermine its current price-appreciation potential.

It’s like saying Apple sucks because nobody bought the Lisa.

—Doug

#45 willworkforpickles on 02.09.22 at 4:56 pm

With regard to higher rates…no guarantees?.
Its going to be a battle by years end with rising inflation and outrage over it. Then they can choose to leave rates alone, having accomplished nothing with the qtr. point increases in 2022 and let inflation explode upwards.
Or deal with the angry masses by trying to cool inflation and start raising rates substantially into 2023 … beating up housing, the markets and the economy.

Its been said throughout the past dozen years , as long as they continue to kick the can of fiscal responsibility down the road, the worse its going to be when the SHTF with no way left to fix it.
That tomorrow that never comes is almost here.
2023 will be the real beginning of those put off well into the distant consequences.
Inflation isn’t going away. And inflationary spending won’t be reined in by any significant degree for very long either.
Those two economic realities (at the very least) are pretty much guaranteed.

#46 Mother truckers on 02.09.22 at 4:58 pm

As your handle name indicates your likely a Dyck and accomplish nothing in life, keep up the good work of offering nothing to this blog like apocalypse now. No wonder Garth is taking a break from losers like you.

#47 kommykim on 02.09.22 at 4:58 pm

RE: #38 604_housing on 02.09.22 at 3:51 pm
So we are all on the same page- Garth taking a few days off to put together his run at the Cons Leadership?

=======================================

I think Garth has been pretty disgusted as to what passes for a Conservative in the steerage section these days.

#48 willworkforpickles on 02.09.22 at 5:06 pm

So by not raising rates substantially into 2023 to actually cool inflation for real…will the Fed let runaway inflation blow up the markets instead?
Unchecked runaway inflation is anathema to the stock market.
2023 … the year “between a rock and a hard place” takes on a whole new meaning!

#49 kommykim on 02.09.22 at 5:07 pm

RE: #41 Stealth on 02.09.22 at 4:20 pm
Also if held in non registered account where you can realize the tax credit is also not great since the gross up increases your income disproportionately increasing tax and dividend tax credit is good but it does not lower the income back down.

==============================================

Just wrong. I’ve run these scenarios through CRA approved tax software. Here in BC, if you have a mix of income in a lower tax bracket, additional income from eligible dividends can have a NEGATIVE tax rate. (Up to almost -10%)
The only bad scenario is if your income is really high in retirement and the gross up causes clawback of OAS… But that won’t be the case for most people.

#50 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 5:13 pm

#29 Faron on 02.09.22 at 2:35 pm

And to that end: attempted arson on behalf of the “truckers” is cool?

——-

Oh, the Ottawa arson department has declared that? Huh. In yesterday’s public announcement they said there was no known arson link to the protesters/demonstrators (starting about 25:15):

https://www.cpac.ca/episode?id=fa5721d6-af8b-48d9-9848-73dcf1459838

You must have more updated information to call that ‘attempted arson on behalf of the truckers’, no?

Otherwise that statement would sorta represent, you know, quack science.

#51 OK, Doomer on 02.09.22 at 5:21 pm

Everyone please just give the PM a break. He’s finally run across a problem that he can’t mollify by throwing billions of taxpayer dollars at.

The cognitive dissonance he’s experiencing must be painful. Not sure how he’s going to get himself out of this pickle, but maybe he should apologize. Seems to have worked for him every other time.

#52 Moonshine on 02.09.22 at 5:49 pm

#16 Hans on 02.09.22 at 12:23 pm

Best ideas for etf exposure to preferreds? Or individual company prefs?

DXP or TPRF

#53 Cici on 02.09.22 at 5:50 pm

Only 51 comments? Garth is going to be jealous, Doug!

Thanks for the info about redemptions and how they can affect the value of share prices. I had no idea ;-0

#54 Mark Taylor on 02.09.22 at 6:00 pm

Hi Garth
Read your blog daily, but skip the comments.
Hope you get back writing soon and do the same.
Missing my daily read.

#55 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.09.22 at 6:15 pm

DELETED

#56 Dave on 02.09.22 at 6:23 pm

30 year old house in Surrey…ok neighborhood at best.

$2.2 M sold in 1 day.

Nothing else matters….if you don’t own real estate your screwed. Good luck with 5% safe returns cause with the current inflation your money has no value.

#57 AM in MN on 02.09.22 at 6:32 pm

How long until Jr. caves?

Anyone who thinks this ends soon doesn’t understand the anger. Probably hasn’t had to cross the border for a long time, hasn’t had their business shut down.

If the cops could have called in tow truck drivers, they would have by now, but all the towing companies have refused. Same with the Military, most would rather be on the side of the truckers against mandates.

The ongoing lies from the “Science” community about children and natural immunity has ruined their reputations for a generation. The toll this has taken on children, teenagers etc. is heavy, and was not necessary.

It is not possible to gin up fake anger like this, and certainly not on this scale.

A lot of this anger is also a more general feeling that the money printing has transferred wealth to the asset rich from the working poor, and they are right. They may not understand how corrupt modern Central Banking has become, but they feel the effects when they go shopping or pay their fuel bills.

The protests will dissipate organically when the mandates end. This includes going back to free border crossings.

#58 Not Stone on 02.09.22 at 6:34 pm

Why try to get the truckers out of Ottawa?
Why not move Ottawa.

#59 Stone on 02.09.22 at 6:35 pm

Yes, a rate reset pref ETF is a good component of a B&D portfolio. ZPR is 25% of my wondrous B&D. At one time, I thought it might be a bit much but when I converted that portion of VAB to ZPR at the end of March 2020 and the rest to VSB, it felt like the right move and continues to be. Recognize DXP may be the better choice but things are still rolling nicely. My B&D portfolio sitting at a sweet +0.80% YTD. Yummers!

#60 Observer on 02.09.22 at 6:46 pm

Until those responsible are found, arrested, charged, and trialed, we won’t know for sure whether or not it was protestors who attempted to set fire to the apartment building and taped shut the front doors to trap residents.

It could have just been a coincidence that a few hours prior to the incident residents got into an altercation with several protestors.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/police-arson-unit-probes-ottawa-fire-allegation-in-heat-of-anti-mandate-protest

#61 TrueLies on 02.09.22 at 6:46 pm

TO FARON … the Commie

From your hit-piece City(Fake)News:

“I live in Ottawa as well, so I’m seeing it first-hand,” CRCVC’s executive director Aline Vlasceanu said. “After seeing all the hateful messages and the harassment and things like that, we really wanted to put it out there that we’re standing with the folks that are affected. People might not think of this as violent, but it is a type of masked violence because it can look very different. … It can take many forms.”

“hateful messages” and “harassment”???

Utter nonsense and you’re gullible enough to believe it. Typical leftie snowflake bs.
She was probably ‘threatened’ by all the dancing and unity shown by all kinds of people- especially the children unmasked!
I’ve been monitoring events very closely and in touch with people on the ground ( I actually watch the video interviews right from ground-zero, and have friends there as well.)

Go there yourself – and open your eyes.

#62 R on 02.09.22 at 6:50 pm

DELETED

#63 Faron on 02.09.22 at 6:54 pm

#50 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 5:13 pm

26:10

Incidents like that are creating great amounts of community concern in the neighbourhoods that are surrounding this demonstration

WRT quack science.

Your certifying body, APEG-BC, says in it’s position statement:

A. APEGBC accepts that there is strong evidence that human activities, in particular
activities that emit greenhouse gases, are contributing to global climate change.

B. APEGBC Registrants1 have the potential to influence greenhouse gas emissions through
their professional activities, and are expected to consider the impact of their work on the
climate.

So, you are saying that you are in direct contravention of the professional body that certifies its practitioners yet are also operating an engineering firm and are presumably certified by said agency? Interesting.

More foolhardy is doing so in light of the recent infrastructure impacts associated with November flooding in BC (that included damage to a highway in Nanaimo not far from where your firm did some intersection work if I’m not mistaken) including the destruction of parts of the Coquihalla. The province is doing some serious soul searching on adjusting design practice for future, more severe events under climate change, so you would have no business doing the work that you do with your archaic viewpoint. If you do such work, your comments make it extremely likely that you will have a liability suit on your desk before the decade is out for intentionally underdesigning for environmental conditions that are a near certainty in the lifetimes of the built environment when any due diligence would show that to be the case.

Good luck Mr. “Climate change will never affect me…”

This is not a threat. This is a statement of how disjointed from reality you are and what kind of a clown show business you must operate if your quack science comment translates to its work. I hope for your sake that your business partners’ cooler thinking prevails.

#64 Observer on 02.09.22 at 6:54 pm

Does anyone else find it interesting that prior to the “demonstrations” at US/Canada borders which are now severely hampering trade, the anti-mandate(for truckers) crowd(including certain CON politicians) was claiming vaccine mandates for truckers were causing grocery shelves to be empty?

They were not.

Yet now, anti-vaccine mandate “protestors” are actually setting Canaadians up to have empty grocery shelves.

#65 VladTor on 02.09.22 at 6:54 pm

Doug …Canada created a record 886,000 new jobs in 2021, for instance

***********
Doug do you believe in this optimistic numbers.

After reading similar optimism for US :

But the U.S. economy did not add 467,000 jobs last month.

It actually lost 2.8 million jobs.

So how does a loss of 2.8 million jobs become a gain of 467,000 jobs?

see here —> http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the-truth-behind-the-economic-lies/

I start understanding how they creating numbers.
I personally don’t after explanation fake trick.

#66 willworkforpickles on 02.09.22 at 6:56 pm

So lets let rising inflation assist the Fed in getting us out from between a rock and a hard place of depleted economic solutions looking ahead.
This and rising GDP should do it many assume.

Those factors get a failing grade due to there being no legitimate economic growth in over a year with more of the same to follow. What we had was people spending money. And they spent lots more because everything thing that was being bought cost more.
Inflated rising prices, not a growing economy, is what fueled the gain in the GDP in 2021 .
A lot of people received support and continue to.
Support that was and is non-productive, buying up diminishing supplies of goods driving inflation.
A growing bubble economy (and it is) will not suffice for long as for any kind of economic fix or solution, but only provide a temp smokescreen (as it does now) over the economic problems the Fed faces.

#67 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.09.22 at 6:57 pm

Wow… Just spent some time getting caught up on the comments for a week… Wth?

In what world does Mr. Turner deserve to become a lightning rod? This country has gone bananas…

#68 VladTor on 02.09.22 at 7:01 pm

to #53 Cici on 02.09.22 at 5:50 pm
Only 51 comments? Garth is going to be jealous, Doug!

***********

That is b’s article like this reading only real investors.

This analysis always coming from REAL professional investor… for free. Especially important are advices … for free too!

For investors all Doug posts are very useful. make them think using they…..a.. (sorry) head.

#69 Cristian on 02.09.22 at 7:02 pm

Hi

Is CPD a good ETF for preferred ? I own it since March 2020 (Covid plunge)
Thanks

#70 Kevin on 02.09.22 at 7:03 pm

Thank you Doug and Garth for introducing me to Prefs a few years back. Great insghts.. .they’ve been balancing my bond losses!

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 7:03 pm

#38 604_housing on 02.09.22 at 3:51 pm
So we are all on the same page- Garth taking a few days off to put together his run at the Cons Leadership
———-
Haha
Good try.
Garth never backs a loser

#72 mike from mtl on 02.09.22 at 7:05 pm

#41 Stealth on 02.09.22 at 4:20 pm

Folks can talk all they want about great dividend and 2 year performance and certainty of interest rate increases or anything else because I am certain the ones who felt the gut punch don’t and have cursed quite a bit.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Have perfs for years and yes in retrospect are useful in these low rate decades however, their real volatility gets brushed off. It’s not far off from owning the common tickers.. almost.

Everything can be great clipping coupons until sudden selloffs tank them at exactly the wrong moment. Take the stairs up and elevator down so to speak.

#73 Marc Roger on 02.09.22 at 7:24 pm

My ZPR is happy but my ZUP is sad.

#74 DON on 02.09.22 at 7:53 pm

Thanks for the info and reasoning Doug. Especially the following:

“Think of preferred shares as your portfolio umbrella”

Persistently higher….raised an eyebrow though. Like watching the preview to a horror movie.

“Persistently higher interest rates aren’t a certainty, but if the sky turns dark, the wind picks up and you hear thunder, it’s probably going to rain.”

#75 DON on 02.09.22 at 8:02 pm

#65 willworkforpickles

When you first made your prediction my eyebrow raised but I thought you were to far out in terms of timelines. Your timeline appears to be on track. I have been consuming every piece of information I can come accross to try and see the chain of events from your perspectives…like pieces of a puzzle.

Thank you for the rational perspective. Any suggested reading?

#76 Been there done that on 02.09.22 at 8:12 pm

The last year has been ok for Pref’s. I’ve invested in Pref’s over the last 20 years and lost money including distributions. I note that financial advisors no matter how successful, only talk up investments when they are making money. Otherwise, Pref’s have a losing ROR.

#77 Silly Investor on 02.09.22 at 8:20 pm

“Investor reaction was predictable: sell everything.”

“However, one asset class held in well: Canadian preferred shares, which managed to trade flat.”

Commodities (a textbook inflation hedge) did above 8% for the month of January 2022 and close to 50% in 2021. Long exposure could be gained with ETFs like PDBC, DBC, DBA, DBB, etc. I personally don’t like going just long commodities; so I go long/flat based on momentum signals. This I do manually; but it could also be put in autopilot with ETFs like the Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF.

Another interest rate/inflation hedge would be to get exposure to Break Even Rate of Inflation. There’s an ETF for that also. This one is not about realized inflation but about inflation expectations.

Then there’s TIPs (realized inflation). These are treasuries at the end of the day so I keep the duration short while the FED is tightening (VTIP)

Inflation I find should be approached from many angles; which includes also the equity side of the portfolio (how to get exposure to stocks that have pricing power or that otherwise are not as rate sensitive)

Other more exotic alternatives I am exploring but I have not invested in: art, wine, farmland, carbon market.

#78 Dr V on 02.09.22 at 8:27 pm

63 Faron – please understand the difference between
specifications and design. I’ve pasted a little blurb
that is typical for government work.

“An electronic copy of the report shall be submitted for review and acceptance…… Any infrastructure that will be maintained…….. by the Ministry shall include climate
change considerations within the design. The Professional Engineer shall follow the Engineers & Geoscientists British Columbia guideline Developing Climate Change-Resilient Designs for Highway Infrastructure in British Columbia……”

And all this from a few years back.

So they are telling the engineer what to do and how to do it, and the Ministry engineers will review it. I am confident Sail Away will colour within the lines.

#79 Capital One on 02.09.22 at 8:31 pm

Doug,

Would you consider convertible bonds to share the same space as preferred shares in a balanced portfolio?

Thanks

#80 Solution for protesters on 02.09.22 at 8:59 pm

Stinking in the rain;

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34227609

#81 Doug in London on 02.09.22 at 9:24 pm

@Preferred Whiner, post #36:
As I said, they have paid out reliably all those years I had those preferred share ETFs. And now the punch line, I scooped up more 2 years ago when they, along with many other asset classes like oil companies were on sale. That is what you’re supposed to do, isn’t it?

#82 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.22 at 9:25 pm

Well these ‘protesters’ have crossed the line to become domestic terrorists. Blocking critical supply chains across the Ambassador Bridge, including food/medical supplies.

They need to removed by force, now.

Unbelievable have a bunch a big semi’s allow the law to be completely bypassed.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.09.22 at 9:34 pm

BC Medical system hits the wall.
Fentanyl and Covid have paramedics reaching the tipping point.
Toxic street drugs kill record numbers in BC in 2021

2,224 ODs up 26% from 2020
80% were men
83 % involved fent
7500 have died in the last 7 years

Its getting worse.

#84 Observer on 02.09.22 at 9:36 pm

Joint statement from Canada’s unions on the Ottawa occupation.

https://canadianlabour.ca/joint-statement-from-canadas-unions-on-the-ottawa-occupation/

#85 MalcolmM on 02.09.22 at 9:37 pm

I’ve had two of my rate reset prefs redeemed. I made money on them but I’m not happy due to the tax implications. Of course I knew they could be redeemed but never expected it in such a low interest rate environment. I’m done with rate reset prefs – I can get similar yields buying the common of the issuer. Risk goes up a bit buying common over prefs but I’ll accept that.

From what little I know of LRCN they are products of financial engineering that shouldn’t be allowed to exist. Figures the regulator would allow them.

#86 Ustabe on 02.09.22 at 9:57 pm

#82 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.22 at 9:25 pm

Well these ‘protesters’ have crossed the line to become domestic terrorists. Blocking critical supply chains across the Ambassador Bridge, including food/medical supplies.

They need to removed by force, now.

Unbelievable have a bunch a big semi’s allow the law to be completely bypassed.

I used to know some fellows out of North Main, Winnipeg who could go all Peaky Blinders on them back in the day, sadly they would be as old as I am now…

I’m not allowed by Sail Away to post links any longer as they have been deemed hokey click bait but one of the many ways various health authorities track the pandemic is by measuring the markers in sewage.

Any guesses as to what happened to the Covid markers in Ottawa’s sewage shortly after the Freedom Convey hit town? For some funny reason meth markers went up as well.

So let us all remember these are Sail Away’s people, he praises them.

#87 DON on 02.09.22 at 10:07 pm

#64 Observer on 02.09.22 at 6:54 pm
Does anyone else find it interesting that prior to the “demonstrations” at US/Canada borders which are now severely hampering trade, the anti-mandate(for truckers) crowd(including certain CON politicians) was claiming vaccine mandates for truckers were causing grocery shelves to be empty?

They were not.

Yet now, anti-vaccine mandate “protestors” are actually setting Canaadians up to have empty grocery shelves.

*********

Yup…and it is pissing me off! That’s the red line.

#88 Faron on 02.09.22 at 10:34 pm

#78 Dr V on 02.09.22 at 8:27 pm

Thanks, I appreciate your clarification.

In Sail Away’s case, I don’t think it’s exactly wise to cry out that the reason the lines he has to colour between are where they are is because of “quack science”.

It certainly wont be helpful to be on record saying as much when a bridge he consulted on lost its footings.

#89 cramar on 02.09.22 at 10:49 pm

#82 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.22 at 9:25 pm

Well these ‘protesters’ have crossed the line to become domestic terrorists. Blocking critical supply chains across the Ambassador Bridge, including food/medical supplies.

They need to removed by force, now.

Unbelievable have a bunch a big semi’s allow the law to be completely bypassed.

====

The police don’t see it that way. They say their job is to “keep the peace” so do nothing. If a week ago a lone individual, parked his truck blocking Huron Church Road, and stood outside holding a protest banner, he would be quickly arrested. Freedom of protest, my foot! He would be arrested for breaking numerous laws, and probably charged with being a public nuisance. When 100 do so, it is classed as an allowed demonstration based on the Charter of Rights and the police do nothing. In reality they are afraid, and have not the spine to immediately end it.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 10:56 pm

DELETED

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 11:00 pm

Who is doing the moderating and deleting now?

#92 PastThePeak on 02.09.22 at 11:05 pm

#103 Nonplused on 02.08.22 at 11:00 pm

Anybody else have this problem? My son claims he cannot remember much of anything before covid (BC). Not camping, not skiing, not the zoo, not anything. He knows he’s done those things, but claims he cannot remember. Could it be trauma? Will he get better? Are there others? Is it widespread? Did we just screw up an entire generation? Did we steal their childhood? I’m in my 50’s and I can still remember much of my youth, at least the highlights.
+++++++++++++++++++

Hey Nonplused,

Not the same – but my son (19, 2nd year university) just confessed to some real depression after these latest Ontario lockdowns. He lost much of his grade 12 (last 4 months, prom, grad), two birthdays in lockdowns, lost 1st year uni (frosh times, meeting new people), and now back online for the 2nd half of year 2. The profs don’t care, and marks are all are down while stress is up.

This is the time when these kids really branch out – but they are stifled. He is really angry, as he (and all his friends) knows that their risks to Covid are very low. He hates ALL politicians. And public health. I was quite surprised (but understanding) of the depth of his anger.

Now of course most of the bilge section here will say “whoopy do, so the teenagers can’t party as much, who cares”…which just shows how clueless they & our “leaders (that is a joke) are.

The mental health of the young is completely ignored…and it will come back to bite…

#93 Shannon Whitebear on 02.09.22 at 11:09 pm

Bought a whack of preferred’s at $11.87. Doing OK with that, but IMHO they are acting sluggish due to BOC weasel wording on rates while continuing to fund Trudeau. Time for an independent BOC. Go Truckers and all Freedom Loving Canadians.

Kid had a great point on his show at 95.3, Trudeau wants to track your kids with his vaccine mandate code. Like in the states they’ll be subject to being “Switched Off” by the Facist Woke if they do or say anything that isn’t.

#94 PastThePeak on 02.09.22 at 11:21 pm

Thanks Doug for your informative post. Completely agree, and I am looking to take some capital gains on rate resets later this year as BoC does (at least some) raises.

All of my perpetuals are above par as well. Not sure if I should sell them now or not…

#95 DON on 02.09.22 at 11:32 pm

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 10:56 pm
DELETED

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 11:00 pm
Who is doing the moderating and deleting now?

*********

Obviously the moderating is spot on.

#96 Sail Away on 02.09.22 at 11:33 pm

#86 Ustabe on 02.09.22 at 9:57 pm

So let us all remember these are Sail Away’s people, he praises them.

———-

Praise may be an overstatement, but they are my countrymen and I’m not condemning them.

It will be fun to watch this unfold. Candice Bergen’s strategy is excellent… ‘Prime Minister, what are you going to do?’

…as he scurries cravenly out the door once again…

Concerted, directed and unequivocal action is needed. Does T2 have backbone? Let us see, shall we?

#97 Nonplused on 02.09.22 at 11:50 pm

#92 PastThePeak on 02.09.22 at 11:05 pm

Thanks for sharing. Our kids are some years apart but it seems both having their own “lockdown issues”.

I can’t imagine having to go through high school or university the way the kids are. Or even elementary and middle school actually.

#98 willworkforpickles on 02.10.22 at 12:02 am

#75 Don
Well as i have said numerous times, predictions are guesses for the most part.
I spend a lot of time researching subjects from national and global perspectives and am able to project an outcome from much of the conclusions that reveal themselves without being too timeline specific. Timelines, being and are, difficult to pin down at the best of times.
I don’t give up links to my research, as much of what i put together comes from numerous sources too many to list.
Research is the key at any rate in getting through the fog of contemporary beliefs. The more the better with some subjects.

#99 Dr V on 02.10.22 at 12:35 am

92 PTP – good post. I’ve also thought of how it would
have affected me at that age. Would have missed a lot of
stuff. Grades might have held up though.

Re: Prefs. Seems to be you love them or hate them.

90 Ponz – my goodness, what did you say??

#100 IHCTD9 on 02.10.22 at 12:37 am

#82 Elon Fanboy on 02.09.22 at 9:25 pm
Well these ‘protesters’ have crossed the line to become domestic terrorists. Blocking critical supply chains across the Ambassador Bridge, including food/medical supplies.

They need to removed by force, now.

Unbelievable have a bunch a big semi’s allow the law to be completely bypassed.
—————

Removed by force? The protestors outnumber the cops probably 5:1. Tow companies are refusing to help. Lots of families with children mixed in with the protestors. The entire world is covering this protest on the front page. It’s inspiring similar movements all over the world. The last thing Trudeau wants is to be connected to instigating a crapload of violence in the nations capital while every nation in the UN and beyond watches his actions closely, every single day.

And you suggest sending in the army with water cannons and rubber bullets?

Good grief buddy…

The authorities are doing a bang-up 100% professional job on this situation. The protestors aren’t burning cop cars, smashing windows, or looting and pillaging. The Ottawa Police are doing exactly the kind of job they should be doing imho. That is making it tougher and tougher to stay, without instigating a riot.

This protest seems to be super well organized, ridiculously well funded, and literally globally supported. You’re just going to have to stay your blood-lust, and be patient.

#101 DON on 02.10.22 at 1:01 am

#93 Shannon Whitebear on 02.09.22 at 11:09 pm
Bought a whack of preferred’s at $11.87. Doing OK with that, but IMHO they are acting sluggish due to BOC weasel wording on rates while continuing to fund Trudeau. Time for an independent BOC. Go Truckers and all Freedom Loving Canadians.

Kid had a great point on his show at 95.3, Trudeau wants to track your kids with his vaccine mandate code. Like in the states they’ll be subject to being “Switched Off” by the Facist Woke if they do or say anything that isn’t.

***********

Well there’s your problem…getting your news from 95.3. Stupid is what stupid listens to.

#102 Damifino on 02.10.22 at 1:12 am

#91 Ponzius Pilatus

Who is doing the moderating and deleting now?
————————————-

The same person who has always done it.

#103 april on 02.10.22 at 2:02 am

#25 – According to a professor who is expert in these matters bringing in the military is exactly what the organizers want… violence.

#104 april on 02.10.22 at 2:36 am

#25 – According to a university professor who is an expert in these matters says the organizers want the military called in… they want violence.

#105 mousey on 02.10.22 at 3:07 am

Wow, a lot to chew on today. Pref shares – yep makes sense and thanks for the post. I take a chill break from the blog for a few weeks – yep, makes sense too, but then Garth gone and ??? Also, on the comment front, maybe we should mandate a time out for Faron and Sailo – the personal nastiness is escalating and reflecting poorly on both. Sorry guys, but you would both be in the corner at my house. Are they brothers or ex lovers or ???

#106 under the radar on 02.10.22 at 5:16 am

Too complicated for me – I put out 600k yesterday for 1 yr at 8% interest only, with a 3 % lenders fee. First mortgage with a LTV of about 40%.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.22 at 6:13 am

@#91 Pouting Ponzie
“Who is doing the moderating and deleting now?”

+++

Very intelligent people.

#108 I don’t know on 02.10.22 at 6:39 am

5 DON on 02.09.22 at 8:02 pm

Those predictions are quite standard and ubiquitous. If one reads through the lines it can be completely distilled into the following issues:

-None of this is sustainable.
-The breaking point is coming soon (usual time frame given is 1 to 1.5 years).
-We are living through unparalleled times and are somehow special.
-Some belief that there is order in the universe. You’ll notice a latch onto some chosen factor that will bring it all down (some current fashionable favourites: central banks, interest rates, inflation. Past favourites: ozone layer, aids, inflation).

You’ll notice that these issues/worries can be applied to any time in human history, really. There are always issues at hand, yet we keep progressing and improving. To believe that we are somehow special and unique is human fallacy.

In short, entertaining to read, but nothing more.

IDK

#109 I don’t know on 02.10.22 at 6:58 am

5 willworkforpickles on 02.09.22 at 4:56 pm

-Today’s inflation level is not “unchecked”, but simply higher than what we have become accustomed to in the last two decades.

The reasons for current levels of inflation are quite obvious and particularly acute right now. There are massive supply chain issues. This is the main factor, and it will resolve itself as covid retreats and lockdowns/capacity limits are dropped. This appears to be happening soon. The other, as you mentioned, is interest rates. All central banks have indicated rates are rising. That is a given, yes, but it will be a slow gradual process. It has to be this way, since we are just emerging from the covid sparked recession. The real anathema to stock markets is uncertainty, and this is why rate hikes will be slow an measured. Central banks have been consistent with this messaging.

IDK

#110 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 02.10.22 at 7:05 am

It’s like saying Apple sucks because nobody bought the Lisa.

—Doug

They should have made a companion product called the Apple Bart!
Hmm….no wonder Garth took a break from these idiotic comments from the pathetic steerage section. D’oh!

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.10.22 at 7:24 am

@#93 Shannon

“Kid had a great point on his show at 95.3, Trudeau wants to track your kids with his vaccine mandate code. ”

+++

Kid Carson was given the “hook” by the Station Management after going off on a conspiracy rant that he was repeated warned not to do.

His diatribe included …and I quote, “……the powers-that-be are trying to control children through “a digital ID that will control every aspect of their lives that can be switched off any time.”

Spewing unverifiable paranoid ravings on air is typically not the mandate of Licensed radio stations…that want to keep their license.

He also took the time to inform listeners that “he probably wouldnt be on air much longer” and listeners could find him on a podcast he was setting up.

Another reason to be fired.
Encouraging cutomers to follow you to your new job.

Nah,
Kid Carson….radio DJ…. Who’s specialty is talking.

Another self important pseudo intellectual with a small following of the vapid, intellectually stunted, internet surfing, sheeple that lap up his internet conspiracy ravings.

sad.

#112 Weltschmerz on 02.10.22 at 7:54 am

#33 Doug Rowat on 02.09.22 at 3:29 pm

Thanks for your response.

Nice to know that those at the helm take into account the almost certainty of surprises.

#113 Are U sure about that? on 02.10.22 at 8:07 am

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.09.22 at 7:03
———-
Haha
Good try.
Garth never backs a loser

——————————————————————-

The fact he tolerates your presence here convincingly dismantles that statement.

#114 Sail Away on 02.10.22 at 8:11 am

#105 mousey on 02.10.22 at 3:07 am

Also, on the comment front, maybe we should mandate a time out for Faron and Sailo – the personal nastiness is escalating and reflecting poorly on both. Sorry guys, but you would both be in the corner at my house.

———

I would happily never engage with Faron, but it’s a bit difficult when I appear to be the sole reason he comments. Six posts by him today and the subject of all is… me. No engagement with the topic, just single-minded, stalker-ish obsession.

Difficult not to respond. I resolve to go grey rock from this point forward.

#115 Gravy Train on 02.10.22 at 8:42 am

#97 Nonplused on 02.09.22 at 11:50 pm
“[…] I can’t imagine having to go through high school or university the way the kids are. Or even elementary and middle school actually.” I never went through high school and university during a global pandemic. Or maybe you think it’s all a hoax (many do).

#116 willworkforpickles on 02.10.22 at 9:46 am

#109 I don’t know

Its true…as i said before, you really don’t know and need to research these subjects beyond the common word on the street that you appear to know little beyond.

#117 Elon Fanboy on 02.10.22 at 12:33 pm

#100 ICDHT9 “ And you suggest sending in the army with water cannons and rubber bullets?

Good grief buddy…”

————-

These occupiers are blocking critical supply lines, food and medical supplies in particular.

$400M in goods delayed so far.

Thousands if not 10’s of thousands of autoworkers were idled yesterday at Ford, GM, Toyota, etc due to parts supply drying up.

This is now a matter of national security. The fact that the occupiers aren’t rioting/looting is irrelevant.

They are threatening the economic stability of this country, not too mention food and medical supplies.

They are domestic terrorists.