Let’s step back from the airhorns, the impending trucker assault on innocent Toronto, the failure of Canadian law enforcement, the bullying and the Tory party eating its own head and look at the big picture. Are things getting better or worse? What to expect, and how to invest?
The big news Friday was jobs. Huge jump in the States. Big fail here. But in Canada nobody’s worried too much that we shed 200,000 positions in February. “We expect a big bounce back,” the economists at TD said as the numbers rolled in. The losses were almost all in the service sector, mostly in Ontario, and 100% because of Omicron. Small businesses were whacked just before Christmas with new restrictions, so they punted workers and went dark. Now that is changing. Fast. “Canadian businesses and workers have been incredibly resilient through all the stops and starts over the last two years,” says the bank. “This wave should be no exception.”
Stateside, the economy sizzled. Payrolls shot up by 476,000 when only 150,000 new jobs were expected. Almost all were private sector creations and wages are on the rise – up 5.7% in a year. Huge. In fact the labour participation rate is almost back to 2019 levels, and still there are ten million jobs going begging.
As a result, Mr. Bond Market resumed pumping yields. In Canada the five-year govy rate is back above 1.7% (it was under 0.8% six months ago) and US Treasuries have swelled. Lost on nobody is the fact the Bank of England hiked its benchmark rate again this week, and the CB in that country has traditionally led North American monetary policy.
“The Bank of Canada should be confident that employment will rebound swiftly and will still execute on its first rate hike in March,” adds the TD Bank. “Market pricing hasn’t budged off this and Canadian bond yields are up this morning.” And this from Desjardins Securities: “With the Bank of Canada on a mission to head off further inflationary pressures, central bankers are still on track to hike rates in March.”
Indeed. We are still primed for lift-off four weeks from now. Market indicators suggest four rate increases (at least) in 2022, which will move the chartered bank prime to 3.45%, taking HELOCs and VRMs along with it. Are you ready?
Meanwhile, look at oil. It rocks. Crude flew past the $90 mark yesterday and appears ready to breach a hundred dollars. When I talked to a manufacturing company exec in Calgary yesterday he was feeling frisky. “Been a long time since I smelled this kind of optimism in the city,” he said. And look at Cowtown real estate. Early February sales are up 88% year/year and the length of time it takes to flog a house has dropped by half.
Yesterday we yakked about the housing market in Toronto and Vancouver, and last week about he economy itself – which is growing at about 6% annually (the US is expanding at around 7%).
So, more jobs on the way. A fatter GDP. Consumer spending has increased. The pandemic is fading. Interest rates about to rise. Commodity prices hiking. The bond market signaling growth and inflation. Corporate profits (other than poor, confused Meta) doing just fine. The world’s biggest company on a roll (Apple). Stock markets within a few percentage points of their record highs. Less than 40% of the world vaccinated yet with much more expansion to come as inoculations spread.
How is this a dreary picture? Are the Roaring Twenties intact, despite today’s Canuck jobs bomb?
The future will bring whatever it does. But here are the consensus expectations….
Balanced portfolios will deliver routine historic returns (6-7%) by the end of 2022. Interest rates will shoot higher by about 1.25%. Savers will see the first meaningful bumps in HISA and GIC returns in almost a decade – but will still lose to inflation. That will run hot at 5% before the rising cost of money starts cooling things off. House prices will go nuts until more inventory arrives, likely mid-year, plus new regulations. Then the fever cools fast. The Dow, S&P and TSX will be much more volatile than in 2021, but still bounce off a number of new record highs. Unemployment will go down, wage demands will go up, the pandemic will be a nothingburger by September and the boss will be sending you an email saying she’s lonely.
Many people swear the last two years changed everything. Believing that would be a mistake.
About the picture: “Indy was brought into the care of the local SPCA in deplorable condition,” writes Jackie in northern Alberta. “Emaciated with multiple broken bones poorly healed, infected gashes everywhere, and teeth that needed to be removed. Having been homeless adjusting to a hone and a family was a bit of a challenge and he was street wise weary but through it all he was a lover. As his trust grew he relaxed into a home filled with beds, bone, kibble and tons of cuddles. He is the most loving and affectionate dog I have ever met. We should all have someone who looks at us the way Indy looks at my husband.”
126 comments ↓
Go oil! When people are busy they forget about national unity bickering. And I have oil stocks that are still underwater from 8 years ago.
Better?
Maybe, better than a bug.
But cats are Best.
Happy Feline Friday!
AD 0 = 2020.
AD 2:
Throw everything out the door it’s a brand new ballgame.
yeah oil.
thanks Mark?
(+$1.73 from yesterday’s disaster of -$85.24, Feb 4, 2:23:19 PM UTC-5 · USD · NASDAQ)
For the curious, last November WSJ reporter Joanna Stern went for 24 hr in Mark’s Metaverse (and 1/2 bodies):
https://youtu.be/rtLTZUaMSDQ
[7:33 min]
——————
Expect the unexpected.
Lucky dog!
I for one share your grim/rosy outlook.
Back to normal by September! (Wow, did anyone else just get an eerie sense of deja vu?)
Everyone I know say something really bad is going to happen soon.
All of this supply chain, covid, war drums is leading us to a dark place.
Something is going to break soon….Are you ready?
PS Metaverse:
Mark dropped to 10th richest in the World from 3rd.
https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
Yesterday cost him personally $31B.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/04/tech/mark-zuckerberg-billionaire-ranking-intl-hnk/index.html
—————–
Oh, the humanity.
– Herbert Morrison
Wait. So the economy is expanding at 6% and we lost 200k jobs?
Maybe the whole “labour shortage” thing is just a mirage. That or the 6% growth is a “sugar high” from all the money printing.
There are 180,000 more people working now than before the pandemic. Job growth in 2021 was robust. One month of Omicron data is irrelevant. – Garth
#1 McSteve on 02.04.22 at 2:19 pm
Go oil! When people are busy they forget about national unity bickering. And I have oil stocks that are still underwater from 8 years ago.
____________________________________________
I hear you! Oil still rules the world and electric cars are for the middle and ultra wealthy only unless you purchase a Nissan Leaf type of basic plain box. Even that is going to run you $40K. So I will stick with oil and gas for my Ford SUV which is still cheaper than the average electric.
DELETED
While on the subject of billionaires…
BBC today reporting about the increase in US Amazon Prime prices:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60252907#:~:text=Amazon%20is%20raising%20the%20price,to%20%24139%20for%20annual%20membership.
Little did they know Bezos burdened with the cost of dismantling a bridge in the NL so he can get his $500M 417 foot superyacht out to sea – passing costs on to the US Consumer:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/world/europe/jeff-bezos-yacht-rotterdam-bridge.html#:~:text=The%20Dutch%20city%20of%20Rotterdam%20on%20Thursday%20walked%20back%20plans,had%20not%20yet%20been%20made
—————–
A clear case of the normally on top of things BBC having missed the boat on that one.
#152 DON on 02.04.22 at 10:38 am
#135 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.04.22 at 1:52 am
96 Paula on 02.03.22 at 8:12 pm
Real estate in Canada will fall hard and most will think it would never happen, 25% cut in 2 years, 40% cut in 5 years, welcome to your destitute future real estate junkies.
————————–
Whats the catalysts? Pease do explain.
I know all the risks as I’ve make alot in RE and know a thing or 2.
Talking a 40% haircut would kill the economy and likely bring in a depression.
There needs to be panic selling for reasons.
Like maybe a pandemic? Did work out.
Only a depression would trigger a collpase and if that happens the stock market gets liquidated first.
The only peeps wishing for a wipeout are those that aint in RE.
There’s not enough housing now. They can turnup immigration and that wont help.
Houses are full of renters and owners and as Garth says….. NO RECESSION..
So please do tell how it crashes?
Read the Big Short and learn something.
************
Worried?
What did you learn from the big short…perhaps that any downturn overshoots what the expert realtors or banks forecast. Inflation is a new variable…have you factored that in. Things change and 10-12 years is not a lifetime but a short term trend…buy more real estate…it worked for you before.
===========================
I should have added Don AND the steps to proceeding the criminal activity that was THE catalysts to the collapse. Bob Black warned I saw him on 60 Minutes pleading for people to listen. The FBI ignored the warnings of it as well. If you could fog a mirror you could get a mortgage.
If you got an appraisal it was “pushed” and the mortgage included your down in the scam.
Appraisers, relators… everyone was all in on it. It was a hell of a party and the bigger the party the bigger the hangover. I know as I warned some family members that ended up losing everything.
Things have gotten nutty now but…..top caller have been killed for years.
If you buy you better know what your doing.
You better have a good buffer for years to come. int rates, maintenance, insurance food cost all going up.
I won’t let my kid buy it would be to much of a burden.
Inflation is a key reason for this big move. We are living in the most UNREPORTED inflation in resent history in my view. It show everywhere.
Thanks mostly to monetary policies of recent years. Low rates, easy money, monetizing debt and crap ton of handouts.
For RE to fall hard your going to need a lot of people that NEED to get out to provide lower prices. There no catalysts for that.
When the govs spending is insane what do you do with cash.
Buy art?
Buy a Shelby Mustang?
Buy a house fast!? Yup all of the above
Oh ya stocks too.
Real-estate always works out if you know what your doing.
I wouldn’t buy another house but I’m building commercial warehousing.
There big demand and I’m not pay some fool premium buy building.
In the states their at 8sqft per capita and here we are at 3sqft. We are way behind.
My rental return is 4 fold housing. RE does not mean residential.
If one wants to get into RE….follow Jeff Olin at Vision.
You can find discount RE REITs in the markets. That’s the only place you can these days.
Use the arbitrage in the markets to physical. You get a DIV to wait while you can realize price appreciation. In their funds they can short overpriced REITs. Their very successful and outperformed.
At least someone can start a leg up while being diversified.
We could have a deflationary crash at some point….Nothing you can do.
I’ve got no debt so I’m never worried just looking for opportunities.
You’re right about the hot market here in the YYC Garth. Seeing and hearing of multiple bids everywhere, with the average premium over ask at 20%. Hopefully Alberta doesn’t become the same kind of overheated market as the rest of the country. Fingers crossed rate rises and future inventory temper this insanity.
Nearing the end of my holdings for oil…it’s been a great ride. Thank you “renewable energy”…for not even coming close to replacing it.
Toss your money in quick, the ride is almost over! Well…the main one, then there’s the overshoot, which I will hang on threw.
Oil to $200? It’s certainly going to overshoot $100.
And most Canadian small caps are still undervalued.
PS
Jeff Olin reported, history shows increasing interest rates are NOT directly correlated to a decrease in RE values.
Yes they are. Evidence abounds. – Garth
“House prices will go nuts until more inventory arrives, likely mid-year, plus new regulations. Then the fever cools fast. “
Prices will likely rise by about 55K per month.
The threat of rising rates, and the rush not to miss out on the low rates might supersize the price escalation even more.
The unknown is how long it will take for the bubble to burst.
We do not know of all the creative financing schemes, proceeds of crime, and the power of the RE hype machine and its effects on stupidity; but I don’t think the pin will be mortgage rates.
DELETED
There’s talk of a 50 basis point hike by the Fed in March.
Poor Tiff
#178 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.22 at 1:46 pm
Garth, any chance the gastropods in Ottawa will hammer us with a 0.5 % raise in March?
—
IMO, it depends on what the bond market does in the coming month. US 1Y rose by 0.1% today and the 6Mo by almost the same. Likely rose on jobs report. If those short bond yields go up enough a 0.25% hike will still leave that end of the curve quite steep and the CBs may see that as undesirable.
Garth:
I agree that the return to pre-pandemic normalcy will happen fast. I do hope that lessons learned during the pandemic will stick around for a while. Both personal and political.
“When I talked to a manufacturing company exec in Calgary yesterday he was feeling frisky. “Been a long time since I smelled this kind of optimism in the city,” he said. And look at Cowtown real estate.”
Commercial vacancy rate nears 30% in Calgary’s Downtown core, a level not since since the 1930s. Oil companies used to compose 57% of the downtown occupancy, now reduced to 32%, due to various acquisitions, mergers and corporate insolvency:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-downtown-vacancy-record-2021-1.6112956
The reference was to the residential market. Obviously. – Garth
The bank elite says “ Nobody is worried about losing 200,000 jobs” uh I think the folks that lost their jobs are worried. Pierre Poilievre for PM!
As stated, the view is that employment will rebound in February. Your quote is fictitious. What’s your agenda?- Garth
everyone going back to work soon enough. out of pj’s into suits again. what a tough life. covid is for all intents and purposes over.
would have been done sooner if everyone just got vaccinated.
buildings will be full again. cant wait to pay $2/L for gas soon enough and be asking for 10% wage hikes.
Bless you and your husband, Jackie, for making up for the horrendous abuse little Indy has suffered. His eyes show his gratitude.
And may the sickos who treated him so badly suffer similarly in their lives! Karma.
“With the Bank of Canada on a mission to head off further inflationary pressures, central bankers are still on track to hike rates in March.”
………
-Some mission! ….They won’t get inflation under control with 3 or even 4 quarter point rate hikes in 2022.
Not real inflation that makes a difference at the checkout.
Inflation expected from recent government spending and its distribution has yet to fully kick in even…and still remains to be factored in with current inflation.
Those planned much too little too late interest rate increases will only add to inflation as they’ll be interpreted as a signal the BoC isn’t doing near enough to get inflation under control.
“Meanwhile, look at oil. It rocks. Crude flew past the $90 mark yesterday and appears ready to breach a hundred dollars.”
……………………
-A biggie for driving inflation .
“Yesterday we yakked about the housing market in Toronto and Vancouver, and last week about he economy itself – which is growing at about 6% annually (the US is expanding at around 7%).
So, more jobs on the way. A fatter GDP. Consumer spending has increased”
……………………………..
-The growth of over 6 percent in the last quarter of 2021 the best qtr in 2021 – was due mainly to many big companies buying up diminishing goods and supplies from manufacturers and producers in anticipation of shortages and steady inflating costs and prices looking forward. Not as a result of any real sustained growth overall.
Those stockpiles as they’re sold off at higher prices still, are and will increase inflationary pressures further. Consumer spending is increasing just to pay for the climbing costs of everything.
DELETED
Now with the patch picking up watch wages for trades go through the roof, so many young people going into tech and wanting to WFH has created a shortage already.
We are bumping our trade rate up to $54/hr to try and keep our trades because the hall is paying red seal millwrights $62.74/hr, $45/hr for apprentices, they need to fill 500 positions.
A young person who now gets their first year done while in high school can now get $45/hr to start with a great pension and training right after graduation. It is very difficult to compete with that and you know the big oil guys will be offering a way more competitive wage to crew up again(just do not piss it away).
Hell is truth seen too late.
Thomas Hobbes
10 yr at 1.87% — only 13 bps to 2%
US 10 yr 1.93%
Don’t see bond prices & stock prices going down together very often. #inflation
Stocks down? Hardly. We are 4% below all-time highs. – Garth
So much for the +476,000 payroll number for January!
In summary, while the markets had been trading for months on fake data when the BLS failed to catch up to covid reality, and was applying stale seasonal adjustments, they are doing so again today, only in the opposite direction with the BLS now overextending itself in the opposite direction, with a January seasonal adjustment that has never been greater!
So for those who feel like discounting the Seasonally Adjusted data, please do: the bizarre Seasonal Adjustment that created distortion and distorted the underlying trend for much of 2021 is back, only now it’s in the other direction.
What is the take home message? It’s two fold:
First, we can effectively ignore covid’s effect going forward. As Southbay notes, “It would appear that COVID is no longer a brake on employment or on the economy” which is good news: the end of the artificial covid restrictions couldn’t come too soon.
Second, while the January report was stellar, its all downhill from here, because “January’s win is a loss for February payrolls” or put otherwise, this month’s strong payrolls will come at a price: i) Seasonal Adjustment will unwind – reducing payrolls in future months and ii) Seasonal workers will be laid off, resulting in a roughly 100K downside to February and/or subsequent months.
Meanwhile, here in sleepy little Parksville on Vancouver Island (median age ~75), where we literally roll up the sidewalks at 9 P.M., from January 2020 until January 2022, average SFH prices have increased 40%, now topping out at just over 940K! What gives? Who are these seniors that are snapping up the properties? Who would offer a mortgage to the fixed income 75+ set?
Stranger and stranger.
Frank Beats the Banks
#109 Frank on 02.03.22 at 9:33 pm
We haggled with my mortgage broker and he got me a 10 year fixed mortgage at 2.529% months ago and he got us our RRSP, TFSA in a 10 year GIC at 3.35%, compounded rate really works out to annually 3.902% GIC just this week.
************************************
That’s an interesting situation. Great job Frank. A few observations:
1. Using mortgage and investment brokers can be useful, they can get you a better deal sometimes and they don’t charge you. The lender (mortgage) or GIC bank pays the broker. Win, win!
Here Frank gets a 10 year Mortgage at 2.529% from one bank or lender. Meanwhile a presumable quite different financial institution (almost certainly a small one) give s him a 10 year GIC at a HIGHER rate of 3.35%.
A question arises: Why does not the mortgage lender just put its money into the smaller instituion paying 3.35% for ten years rather than lend to Frank at the lower 2.529% for ten years? Banks are allowed to put cash on deposit with other institutions. They are perfectly free to buy the GICs of the small institution.
But there is a problem. Small institutions don’t want a single large depositor like a bank putting money into GICs becasue they might take it away. But wait if this is locked in for 10 years that might not apply.
The bigger concern is probably that while Frank’s mortgage is insured by CMHC the GIC of a little institution is not insured for banks at least not over $100k.
Interesting situation. Anyone with knowledge that can shed some light on this strange situation?
“One month of Omicron data is irrelevant. – Garth”
Do not ever call me irrelevant, sir.
Or I will spread my pathogens even faster and show your species what that word truly means.
#12 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.04.22 at 3:03 pm
One possible catalyst is the over indebted who are getting saueezed by inflation and then life happens…financial hardship, stress, divorce etc.
Meanwhile, a small central European country’s central bank takes decisive action to combat inflation:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/czech-central-bank-increases-key-interest-rate-82647147
“The hike of three-quarters of a point, to 4.5%, was the sixth straight increase since June, and analysts expected it. The bank, which considers high consumer prices a major threat, also had indicated it would raise the rate. It’s now at the highest level since January 2002.”
Two countries with smaller economies than their neighbours and trading partners, both with minor secondary currencies. Yet the contrast in policy is striking: 4.5% vs 0.25%.
It’s nice to know that the BoC doesn’t seem to regard consumer inflation as much of a threat…have they checked with their citizenry on that? Or maybe the worry is that the Canadian economy simply can’t sustain increases of that magnitude? Or of ANY magnitude?
Oops. No more levers to pull. Canada will just keep tagging along behind the Fed as usual.
Moral hazzard! Dufer Tiff does not know what to do so he is trying the gradual approach which never works if you are already behind the curve. The result is loss of confidence in the Bank of Canada and higher inflation with much higher interest rates which knocks the legs off the housing stool and causes a bad recession. You had 10 years of easy whatever it takes money and now the central bank is out of amunition so we are looking at a 5 to 10 year housing correction and high unemployment. Pick up truck re-possesions will abound. Plus don’t forget to over lay political interference which will provide Garth with plenty of ideas for this blog.
INFLATION Garth, you seem to paint a roaring 20s picture but what about the elephant in the room. You know it’s min 10% in real terms, not the phoney 4-5 % the government state. Rates will have to be 6-7% to deal with it. Food up,gas up,property taxes way up, wage demand increases up. You actually think Tiff and Freeland have this under control? Really Garth, take the rosey glasses off please.
Garth everybody believes everything changed around freedom
Garth, I think you mentioned this before. Should I be putting lump sum payments on my mortgage now and it gets applied directly to the principle before renewal comes up? This is better to do than putting extra money investing in ETF’s and stuff?
Have about 4 years to go before renewal.
Why pay down a 2% mortgage with money that should earn three or four times that return? Build the portfolio then apply a lump sum upon renewal. – Garth
#34 DON
#12 All lies and manipulated u decide
“One possible catalyst is the over indebted who are getting squeezed by inflation and then life happens…financial hardship, stress, divorce”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
So true… I had the opportunity to buy 3 of those properties in my life being sold under divorce settlement duress.
Bought 2 of them…all 3 were very cheap.
That’s not slush out on your streets and sidewalks
It’s my slimy little pathogens.
We are taking over.
Everywhere.
Enjoy your days. While they last.
31 Parksville
“Who are these seniors that are snapping up the properties? Who would offer a mortgage to the fixed income 75+ set?”
———————
Ah…… you cant be serious.
P/Q has been a Canadian retirement hotspot for decades. Probably the highest RE prices for comparable housing than all other major island markets except
Victoria.
Don’t be fooled. These people do NOT require mortgages. There is a LOT of money there.
#39 Ballingsford on 02.04.22 at 4:50 pm
Garth, I think you mentioned this before. Should I be putting lump sum payments on my mortgage now and it gets applied directly to the principle before renewal comes up? This is better to do than putting extra money investing in ETF’s and stuff?
Have about 4 years to go before renewal.
Why pay down a 2% mortgage with money that should earn three or four times that return? Build the portfolio then apply a lump sum upon renewal. – Garth
********
Thanks Garth! I didn’t have the full picture. Save and then pay down just before renewal.
‘Indy’ looks very sweet & obviously is living a much better life:)
One thing about Calgary house prices, they are still within reach of working folks. Ditto pretty well anywhere in Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba. That having been said, prices are going up though not (as yet) at the rate seen in other locales.
High energy prices could spark another boom. Thing about those booms, they can bust just as quickly. The smart & experienced keep that fact in mind & take steps to ensure that they don’t end up with nothing but regrets.
With so many jobs going begging Stateside one wonders how many qualified folks in Canada may try out employment opportunities south of the border? Especially those being penalized for success with ever increasing taxes? Throw in the bigger bang for the RE buck & those golden geese may well fly south on a permanent basis.
HOORAY FOR OIL STOCKS
BURN THE PLANET TO ASH
I AM A FILTHY CAPITALIST AND LOVE MY STOCK RETURNS
The ETF that can’t get no respect. XBI – Biotech
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=XBI&p=w&tas=0
–Downtown Toronto is filling up with Tractors. How’d they all get down here, and from where?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W09Kyr1wK8c
— Control over travel – the name of the game. Even more completely than last time. Suggest re-naming EU to PFE.
.France bans tourists with no Covid booster: Anyone who was double-jabbed more than nine months ago will be refused entry without ‘compelling …( dailymail.co.uk)
Meta is loved by grandmothers everywhere. I prefer not to support entities, which yield way too much power. And led by the human version of Star Treks’ Data. Minus Data’s humanlike qualities, like empathy towards humanity and real intelligence. Meta- face knows more about you than God.
#46 TurnerNation on 02.04.22 at 5:41 pm
–Downtown Toronto is filling up with Tractors. How’d they all get down here, and from where?
—
During this summer’s bike tour a tractor let us by on a highway. Turned out that he was about as fast as us. Trying to stay ahead of them on the last incline before an awesome downhill was hard! Based on that, I’d say they can travel about 20kph. There’s farmland within 50km of DT Toronto.
Or flatbed
I think this is a good time to have a survey and ask how many of your readers think interest rates will go up? Today I spoke to a Non-greaterfool blog reader who believes that rates will stay low for a long time because of the recent job numbers. He then proceeded to tell me that I should just buy a house, anything I can afford because GTA has the highest growth rate apparently and so demand will never go down nor will price. Who knows? But I’m curious to know how many other people think the same.
U.S. jobs report:
“seasonal, covid and population control adjustments”
Recession?
…………………..it’s already starting!
Interest rate increases?
…………………..not gonna happen. The Fed has the true data not the lies everyone else gets.
Russia/Ukraine war?
…………………..also not gonna happen.
All is not what it seems.
You can’t make some stuff up.
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1488660359422648320?
I think this must be fake. If it is not fake, Dog help us.
Canada loses 200,000 jobs? But did we?
Brian at 30 mentioned suspect seasonal adjustments in the U.S. labour data. Good point!
Every time the Canadian jobs report comes out, almost everyone seems to accept it as gospel. Like it’s an actual accurate count of jobs. It’s not. It’s not manipulated it just has uncertainty.
Surely we should ask about measurement error in the data.
It’s only a SAMPLE. The household sample is supposed to be random. How do you draw a random sample these days when most people don’t have published phone numbers? Are the sort of people who refuse to participate or just fail to report in really similar to the sort of rule-followers that do? Point is the sample can never be truly random.
Plus with all the gig work and part-time internet work how easy is it to self-identify as in the labour force or not. What if you are 60, on a pension, earn some money from part-time self-employment and would like to be earn more and willing to take a full -time job. Do you report yourself as working or not?
Even if the sample is random there is statistical error. I believe the stated error rate is something like plus or minus 30,000 jobs 19 times out of 20 and a bigger error the 20th time! That’s significant.
Then comes the seasonal adjustment. How the heck do you do a proper seasonal adjustment in the middle of a pandemic when one January might look very different from another.
The bottom line is, take every monthly jobs report with a large grain of salt. Interpret it over at least three to four months.
Dolce Vita used to dig out the unadjusted numbers and they told a different story typically.
Freedoms Lost??
Let’s face it the protest that was relabelled as anti-measures is really antivax. Recall it started off as an antivax protest by truckers that did not want border vax requirements. It was then quickly relabeled an anti measure protest when the antivax message was looking to knuckle dragging Neanderthal.
I question what are these draconian, neofascist measure people are willing to freeze their butts over in an Ottawa winter?
As a tripled vaxxed person I am pretty much free to do everything I did before covid with minor exceptions. I can go to restaurants/pubs, play team sports, go to movies and shop for everything. Maybe I have to wear a mask or social distance – big frikin’ deal. If I fly internationally I have to spend $50-100 for a covid test – typical 1st world problem.
No, this truckers’ protest is all about antivaxxers wanting measures removed so they can move about freely without being vaxxed. Basically they want the same rights as the vaxxed without doing the socially responsible thing (getting vaxxed).
Just Get vaxxed! And stop listen to quack vitamin selling “doctors” and tinhat wearing podcast hosts.
Time to feast on the rich:
https://www.marxist.com/canada-food-prices-set-to-soar-capitalism-to-blame.htm
#45 Andrew Richards on 02.04.22 at 5:40 pm
HOORAY FOR OIL STOCKS
BURN THE PLANET TO ASH
I AM A FILTHY CAPITALIST AND LOVE MY STOCK RETURNS
———————————-
Turn your computer off because you truly are adding to CO2 emissions unnecessarily.
(While you are at it sell your car, turn off the heat and power in your house, and stay off the bus!)
Remember folks, corporations do not cause CO2 emissions, consumers do. Corporations just sell what people want to buy. If you don’t buy it, they won’t make it.
Canadian Western Canadian Select Oil is at record high!
So said Rory Johnson of Commodity Context in a radio interview today.
He explained that last time Western Canadian Select was high back in 2014 or 2008 (I did not catch which exactly) the Canadian dolllar was at or above par with the U.S. dollar.
Therefore with the low Canadian dollar today, the Canadian dollar price of Western Canadian Select (U.S. $78.37) is right around $100 even in Canadian dollars and a RECORD high.
Seriously, Alberta is now on a roll. This is the province to watch this year. The unemployment rate in Alberta will likely plummet and soon.
What are the highest paying blue collar jobs?
‘We should all have someone who looks at Indy the way he looks at my husband’. Jackie+++
We should also all have someone to whom we can look to with equal admiration for their compassion and sacrifice. Bless you and thank you for giving Indy a beautiful life.
Good news!
GoFundMe supports peaceful protests and we believe that was the intention of the Freedom Convoy 2022 fundraiser when it was first created.
We now have evidence from law enforcement that the previously peaceful demonstration has become an occupation, with police reports of violence and other unlawful activity.
To ensure GoFundMe remains a trusted platform, we work with local authorities to ensure we have a detailed, factual understanding of events taking place on the ground. Following a review of relevant facts and multiple discussions with local law enforcement and city officials, this fundraiser is now in violation of our Terms of Service (Term 8, which prohibits the promotion of violence and harassment) and has been removed from the platform.
Organizers provided a clear distribution plan for the initial $1M that was released earlier this week and confirmed funds would be used only for participants who traveled to Ottawa to participate in a peaceful protest. Given how this situation has evolved, no further funds will be directly distributed to the Freedom Convoy organizers — we will work with organizers to send all remaining funds to credible and established charities verified by GoFundMe.
https://medium.com/gofundme-stories/update-gofundme-statement-on-the-freedom-convoy-2022-fundraiser-4ca7e9714e82
More good news!
Organizers of the Freedom Convoy that has gridlocked downtown Ottawa for the last week are facing a $9.8-million class-action lawsuit over relentless horn noise, filed on behalf of residents of the city’s downtown core.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/lawsuit-filed-against-convoy-organizers-seeking-damages-on-behalf-of-downtown-ottawa-residents-1.5768731
@#35 BillyBob
“It’s nice to know that the BoC doesn’t seem to regard consumer inflation as much of a threat…have they checked with their citizenry on that? ”
++++
Unfortunately,
Prime Minister “Give everyone everything they desire” is too frightened to actually raise rates….unpopular decisions don’t compute…
P.S.Welcome back. Making tons of dough flying to an fro I suspect.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
@#45 Andrew the Brutally honest Capitalist
”
I AM A FILTHY CAPITALIST AND LOVE MY STOCK RETURNS”
++++
I admire your conviction.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
@#57 Bruce
“What are the highest paying blue collar jobs?”
Depends.
What do you consider “Blue Collar”?
Anyone that works with their hands?
Commercial Airline Pilots?
Doctors?
Cops?
Plumbers? ( Ponzie’s fave trade).
Electricians?
Carpenters?
Refrigeration mechanics?
Insulators?
Sheet metal workers?
Cement finishers?
Laborer’s?
Steel workers?
mechanics?
Drivers?
On and on it goes
And do they work for themselves as owner operators?
If they own their business…..
The sky is literally the limit.
Apprentices can make $100k per year LEARNING the trade.( overtime included of course)
Red Seal trades? $125-150k
Owners $150-200k and up.
“This is Jessie, or as she was AKA, Jessie The Wonder Dog,” writes Alan. “She had the softest and most luxurious fur, and was without a doubt, the smartest animal I’ve ever seen. She’s been gone now for over 10yrs, and is sorely missed. I still have yet to see a smarter dog.”
———–
Funny, never met her… But couldn’t agree more!
I sensed all of those things just from the picture.
Probably because we were privileged enough to have one of her furfathers join our family…. 50 years ago.
DELETED
#53 Reality checker
Freedoms Lost??
Let’s face it the protest that was relabelled as anti-measures is really antivax. Recall it started off as an antivax protest by truckers that did not want border vax requirements. It was then quickly relabeled an anti measure protest when the antivax message was looking to knuckle dragging Neanderthal.
I question what are these draconian, neofascist measure people are willing to freeze their butts over in an Ottawa winter?
………………………..
How nice of you to describe the front line workers who supply you with groceries, clothes, basic essentials and toilet paper.
I guess you are an elite who consumes a nice Cabernet with tapenade on a gourmet cracker in front of a crackling fireplace and type this crap to feel better about yourself.
The truckers are far above your imagination as a Neanderthal person. Shame on you!
Next time get a backpack and haul your own living essentials yourself!
#51 Nonplused on 02.04.22 at 6:11 pm
You can’t make some stuff up.
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1488660359422648320?
I think this must be fake. If it is not fake, Dog help us.
++++++++++++++++
Saw that too. Seems pretty much like his standard rhetoric.
The US created a lot of private sector jobs and Canada created a lot of public sector jobs but still lost 200,000.It should be concerning that too many jobs in Canada are in government and even when restaurant/bar jobs etc come back is Canada really producing anything but debt.We are bringing in $10 daycare(funded by taxpayers) so people can be freed up largely to go their government jobs.Debts are incomprehensible as every new program just goes on the gov’t credit card.Roaring 20’s?Maybe to some extent as government continues to grow and they get inflation matched raises but inevitably it looks like an economy built on mush not anything solid.
#51 Nonplused on 02.04.22 at 6:11 pm
…Dog help us.
—
Care to elaborate here pal? Do you have evidence that there haven’t been any of those things? From your time on the ground on Ottawa the past week? We already know a form of antisemitism was on display…
Melbourne is not getting back to normal any time soon.
“When working from home is set to end.
Victorians will continue to work from home a little while longer, as business leaders warn the move will cost the economy tens of millions of dollars a week.”
I must be getting old, I only go to downtown Vancouver once every 10 years to slam $250 on the counter at the Australian embassy, to walk out with a passport I never use.
Let’s see what Sydney’s up to.
“Ping-pong tables and free transit: plan to re-energise Sydney’s city centre.”
Well, why didn’t anyone tell me earlier ping-pong is the way out of this pandemic…
M47BC
43 Ballingsford
“Thanks Garth! I didn’t have the full picture. Save and
then pay down just before renewal.”
——————–
First ask yourself the following
– is your income secure (gov’t worker v self employed)?
– have you stretched yourself to get this mortgage?
– can you afford the payments on the remaining balance
at a 2.5% higher rate?
– are there any (more) children planned?
– can you predict with certainty what your investments will be worth at the time of renewal?
– have your considered the capital gains inclusion and tax rate at that time?
I think if you’ve borrowed within your means, and will have steady income, Garth’s advice is very likely correct.
…we will work with organizers to send all remaining funds to credible and established charities verified by GoFundMe.
*************
Scammers!
Do you have mandate for that from people who donated money?
First ask those who gave the money whether they agree or not send all remaining funds to credible and established charities or return the unused money to people who send to you.
Premier Horgan is back from cancer surgery.
About time.
Somebody who speaks his mind, unlike the other Premiers who cave in to anarchist protesters.
The Next Prime Minister in waiting.
#63 Sail Away on 02.04.22 at 7:19 pm
DELETED
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I wonder what could have got his knickers in a knot.
#53 Reality Check on 02.04.22 at 6:14 pm
Freedoms Lost??
Let’s face it the protest that was relabelled as anti-measures is really antivax. Recall it started off as an antivax protest by truckers that did not want border vax requirements. It was then quickly relabeled an anti measure protest when the antivax message was looking to knuckle dragging Neanderthal.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Exactly. And obviously anti-vaxxers are also anti-vax mandate, so it was an easy stretch of truth in attempt to make them look less kookoo.
Time to move forward.
Og
#63 Sail Away on 02.04.22 at 7:19 pm
DELETED
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Maybe he is upset because he just found out that his anonymous Freedom Convoy GoFundMe donation is now going to charity.
Well they rode her up, till they have been selling by the square foot in Laneways, in Van… so time to switch out the posture, and hit the hard line strategy, now that many/most are in the Bag. Next up is Climate Change 3.0…
Gofundme will return donations. Gosendme now taking donations.
SailAway, Good news!
I just read that you can get back your donation to the Freedumb Convoy if you fill out a form on the GoFundMe site.
Our failing medical system Part V
Last Wed. morning the ENTIRE city of Vancouver was being serviced by ONE ambulance at 6:30am
The Union said staff shortages were to blame.
Paramedics are burning out largely due to the Fentynal overdose crisis.
Recruitment is a problem.
Govt officials said that there were actually 40 ambulances available all over the Lower mainland at 6:30 am and can be dispatched to bordering Cities..
Hope, Faith, & Charity in the air tonight.
Premier Horgan of British Columbia looks a bit gaunt, but stands on his own two hind legs before the cameras. A speedy recovery wished for you from your eastern Alberta neighbour, Mr. Horgan. Dog Speed.
Numerous news reports appear to support an imminent re-opening of the economy. Looks like there will be an ‘Indian Leg Wrestle’ ( can I still say that? really, who cares…), between the provincial and municipal government in Alberta. Just tell them to piss off, Jason, we’re all fed up and hate the new Mayor, so the probable outcome will be intentional civil disobedience anyway.
Let’s all just burn our bras. You too, Blog Dogs if you wear one.
And best of all, eerily similar to a long ago event in the early morning at Whaling Station, Stromness, South Georgia, May 20, 1916 , where three eerie creatures emerged from the rugged interior of South Georgia, here returns Captain Ross @ #35 BillyBob on 02.04.22 at 4:33 pm.
Missed you kiddo.
@#64 Go Freedumb Fighters ! on 02.04.22 at 7:33 pm
#53 Reality checker
Freedoms Lost??
Let’s face it the protest that was relabelled as anti-measures is really antivax. Recall it started off as an antivax protest by truckers that did not want border vax requirements. It was then quickly relabeled an anti measure protest when the antivax message was looking to knuckle dragging Neanderthal.
I question what are these draconian, neofascist measure people are willing to freeze their butts over in an Ottawa winter?
………………………..
How nice of you to describe the front line workers who supply you with groceries, clothes, basic essentials and toilet paper.
I guess you are an elite who consumes a nice Cabernet with tapenade on a gourmet cracker in front of a crackling fireplace and type this crap to feel better about yourself.
The truckers are far above your imagination as a Neanderthal person. Shame on you!
Next time get a backpack and haul your own living essentials yourself!
–
I mean, the other 90% of truckers are actually working.
Unlike the Neanderthals clogging up Ottawa in so many ways. They are definitely not frontline workers
#65 Yukon Elvis on 02.04.22 at 7:37 pm
#51 Nonplused on 02.04.22 at 6:11 pm
You can’t make some stuff up.
https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1488660359422648320?
I think this must be fake. If it is not fake, Dog help us.
++++++++++++++++
Saw that too. Seems pretty much like his standard rhetoric
While you two engage in legitimate political discourse might I be able to help you a bit?
Go to r/ottawa or their Zello, Insta, Twitter accounts. Go to any of the Ottawa media, CTV, Global, even the much reviled CBC. The local newspapers, etc.
Even put on fresh panties and go to Vice or any of the fake media.
See what is going on, how the citizens of Ottawa actually feel about this, look at screen caps of “protest” organizers sending social media critics death threats, threats to come to their towns and burn them to the ground, etc.
They are physically attacking citizens who are wearing masks, they are terrorizing homes that have any semblance of gay pride stuff in their windows, they are flinging poo, literally, at houses out in the suburbs, no where near the “protest”.
Its all there, on screen caps of social media, on video and in first person accounts. If you chose to look and see…
Or carry on, you both prove what kind of Canadian you are on here over and over.
You also don’t get to blame BLM or Indigenous blockaders for every looting or burning this and that and go one to dismiss these egregious and ongoing acts of domestic terrorism on a few bad actors.
My Senator resigned from Senate Conservative Caucus today citing he couldn’t align with former and current conservatives supporting/glad-handing the convoy leftovers.
https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/nunavuts-senator-defects-from-conservative-caucus/
He stepped up when former MP Qaqqaq couldn’t handle “The Hill” and was generally well received as Nunavut’s British Columbian Senator.
Garth – did you ever have a chance to meet and talk to Patterson, initial impressions of the guy?
We pay high taxes for all the stuff we get! Stuff.
GEE I wonder what happened to some of them and why.
.Ontario’s nursing shortage is worse than ever. How did we get here (thestar.com)
—
— Follow the money.
— Booster Nation. Guess what will be in the ‘news’ for the next 2-3 years. Non Stop. Daily.
There’s only 38 million people here…so by my math that means……roll up the shirt rim to win.
https://twitter.com/rubiconcapital_/status/1488936107370758156?cxt=HHwWmICy0Yfg4akpAAAA
“Canada has 65m total Pfizer doses on order for ’22 & ’23, w/options for 60m more.
(in addition to 76m already ordered, of which only ~52m doses admin’d)
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-services-procurement/news/2021/04/government-of-canada-secures-vaccine-supply-beyond-2021.html
Better ? Hmmmm I dunno about that but we shall see – I watched Don’t Look Up the other day lol – that dark comedy is a mirror of our sad society in soooo many ways :(
#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.22 at 9:16 pm
Our failing medical system Part V
Last Wed. morning the ENTIRE city of Vancouver was being serviced by ONE ambulance at 6:30am
The Union said staff shortages were to blame.
Paramedics are burning out largely due to the Fentynal overdose crisis.
Recruitment is a problem.
Govt officials said that there were actually 40 ambulances available all over the Lower mainland at 6:30 am and can be dispatched to bordering Cities..
———————-
Are you making this up again?
#82 Ustabe
Excellent comment. Ottawa residents have never been terrorized like this. It won’t be forgotten.
On parliament investing GOFUNDME:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGiz2UcY_m4
edit: On parliament investigating GOFUNDME
#63 Sail Away on 02.04.22 at 7:19 pm
DELETED
———
These are my favourite type of comments from Sail Away.
Like a breath of fresh air. Ahhhhhh!
You submit and praise your woke leaders who actively destroy the oil business in this country.
Then you celebrate oil being back up! Little hypocritical no?
Rebalancing the last 6 weeks into Canadian small/mid cap energy stocks. ETF NNRG looks like the best. Portfolio looks good.
Garth, with oil at $93 why is C$ still at .78. Shouldn’t it be near par? Do Canucks switch to C$ hedged for S&P 500?
Garth, you forgot to include REITS in your 2022 assessment. Allow me to make you shine like the star that you are…
– REITS, overall, will continue to have yet another spectacular year or two
– They are valued differently than SFH. No emotions, no FOMO … just pure bottom line yield.
– Since demand for SFHs will take a hit at some point because fewer consumers will be able to carry them, there will be increased demand for rental units, such as multifamily.
– the smart REITS loaded up on the longest term, lowest rates available when remortgaging over the past 20 months. This means their WACC cost to borrow will be very low when compared to historical numbers
– despite potential cap rate problems because of higher interest costs, the positive state of the economy including inflation and salary increases bodes well for rental increases to be absorbed
– industrial/commercial REITS will thrive, Multifamily will excel and high quality retail will lag slightly but still outperform most other assets. Retail that contains essential type businesses anchored by a large grocery chain were little affected thru the pandemic.
You’re welcome, Garth!
#6 Dave on 02.04.22 at 2:41 pm
Everyone I know say something really bad is going to happen soon.
All of this supply chain, covid, war drums is leading us to a dark place.
Something is going to break soon….Are you ready?
__________
Reminds me of an acquaintance that was worried about the DOW being at $17K … not even 5 short years ago! I’m not sure he ever got back in…or at what price!
Or a few others that were going to cash out their portfolios back in the fall of 2020 because of the supposed “black winter”.
They lost out on some pretty spectacular gains.
Time to get yourself some new friends and set the bar a little higher!
#67 Faron on 02.04.22 at 7:53 pm
#51 Nonplused on 02.04.22 at 6:11 pm
…Dog help us.
—
Care to elaborate here pal? Do you have evidence that there haven’t been any of those things? From your time on the ground on Ottawa the past week? We already know a form of antisemitism was on display…
and #82 Ustabe on 02.04.22 at 9:22 pm
————————————
I was merely commenting on the rhetoric that Trudeau was using. For all I know Ottawa has been overrun by a multitude of transphobic Putin-Nazi racists, but it just hasn’t made the news. But if not then what we are dealing with is the frightened (terrified I’d say) reaction of someone with the mentality of a 13 year old. You don’t just get to throw every “ism” in the book at anyone you don’t like. It looks like a complete mental breakdown.
Perhaps Trudeau was referring to a subset of the crowd who is behaving very badly. But if so, those actions haven’t made the news, and he didn’t make that clear. He seemed to paint the whole crowd with one brush, with accusations that appear to be largely imaginary and hugely derogatory. If he was hoping to make matters worse, he couldn’t have found a better way. He may as well have told everyone that their grandmothers can’t cook.
I feel for the fine people of Ottawa that have nothing to do with the government or the mandates and would like to just carry on with their very peaceful and unobtrusive lives without inconveniencing anyone or being inconvenienced themselves. But unfortunately if you choose to live near the pig farm you have to live with the smell.
#82 Ustabe on 02.04.22 at 9:22 pm
Go to r/ottawa or their Zello, Insta, Twitter accounts. Go to any of the Ottawa media, CTV, Global, even the much reviled CBC. The local newspapers, etc.
Even put on fresh panties and go to Vice or any of the fake media.
See what is going on, how the citizens of Ottawa actually feel about this, look at screen caps of “protest” organizers sending social media critics death threats, threats to come to their towns and burn them to the ground, etc.
They are physically attacking citizens who are wearing masks, they are terrorizing homes that have any semblance of gay pride stuff in their windows, they are flinging poo, literally, at houses out in the suburbs, no where near the “protest”.
Its all there, on screen caps of social media, on video and in first person accounts. If you chose to look and see…
Or carry on, you both prove what kind of Canadian you are on here over and over.
You also don’t get to blame BLM or Indigenous blockaders for every looting or burning this and that and go one to dismiss these egregious and ongoing acts of domestic terrorism on a few bad actors.
———–
Oh my. That sounds terrible.
These atrocities don’t show up on the first three pages of ‘convoy protest’ Google search, though, and then I was unfortunately drawn away by an ad to lose belly fat with one simple trick. Might try again later.
Some dogs might be interested in one local Ottawa residents attempt to engage with the honking truckers.
https://maybury.ca/the-reformed-physicist/2022/02/03/a-night-with-the-untouchables/
@#86 Ponzie’s Penultimately Perfect Prayer Paradigm
“Are you making this up again?”
+++
As much as I’d like to say it’s all an exaggeration…. sadly no.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/extreme-bc-paramedics-union-on-shift-with-only-1-staffed-ambulance-in-vancouver/ar-AATurtJ
There’s a new invention called “Google”.
You should try it some time
That News story search took 2 seconds
But you just keep on telling yourself that everything in the Medical system is perfect and pray that when you, or someone near and dear to you ( me?) need an ambulance….they won’t all be tied up dealing with the endless drug addicts overwhelming the system.
Seems to me the paramedics have been screaming the same story to the useless politicians and bureaucrats for almost 5 years now and they’re reaching their limit.
Burned out, frustrated, hopelessly overworked, ready to quit…
Perhaps a perfect storm of a Welfare Wednesday, a “hot” batch of deadly Fentynal on the same Wednesday and all the paramedics call in sick the same day ….
50 dead in one night? 100 dead?
Will the govt do anything?
Probably not.
@#90 Stoned
“These are my favourite type of comments from Sail Away.”
+++
Now now.
Don’t forget the saying, ” People in glass houses shouldn’t get stoned”
Most of us have been delegated to the DELETED shed at one time or another.
Consider it a right of passage.
Like being searched at a concert by the cops and having to pour out your booze.
It sucks but life goes on.
#69 Dr V on 02.04.22 at 8:16 pm
43 Ballingsford
“Thanks Garth! I didn’t have the full picture. Save and
then pay down just before renewal.”
——————–
First ask yourself the following
– is your income secure (gov’t worker v self employed)?
– have you stretched yourself to get this mortgage?
– can you afford the payments on the remaining balance
at a 2.5% higher rate?
– are there any (more) children planned?
– can you predict with certainty what your investments will be worth at the time of renewal?
– have your considered the capital gains inclusion and tax rate at that time?
I think if you’ve borrowed within your means, and will have steady income, Garth’s advice is very likely correct.
*****
Yah, I’m good in all that. I don’t have as much disposable income now than when I rented, but do have some extra left over.
If things were different though, what would be different in your mind from what Garth says? It shouldn’t matter.
I get that interest rates are bound to rise, and there is a psychological effect to this. But what is your take on supply?
With the number of new Canadians coming in, and Boomers choosing to hold on to their homes vs. downsize, plus the fact that so many Canadians now own multiple properties which they have been stress tested for … Do you think this mutes the correction? Do you see panic in the streets as interest rates rise?
I am trying to see how things change, and I get it from an interest rate perspective (although I am doubtful it will rise as high as people think, or hold very long), but from an inventory and demographic/immigration stance … it is less clear to me.
@#97 Another Angle
A very interesting blog.
https://maybury.ca/the-reformed-physicist/2022/02/03/a-night-with-the-untouchables/
And from a govt bureaucrat no less!?!?
Garth…. Interest rates will shoot higher by about 1.25%
*************
This is funny! need at least 3%. Look at healthy economy of Russia:
We expect that next Friday, the Bank of Russia will increase the key bet on 100 b. p. up to 9.5%. As in December, (when the Central Bank raised the rate on the same 100 b.) Signs of deceleration of inflation are still absent. We believe that the raising rate is 150 b. n. is an unlikely scenario, since the predicted increase of 100 b. P. – And so a very big step for the Central Bank, “says SberciB Investment Research, Sbercib Investment Research Radovy Rapokhin.
Yes, Oil is one a tear, Biden pleads for the middle east to increase supply so gas prices drop in time for the mid term elections. Meanwhile, our C$ is dropping in spite of the record rise in Oil and planned increase in BOC rates. Not good at all.
Took some profits on Apple and bought more Meta. Buy when there’s blood in the streets said a wise man.
@#103 Vlad
“We expect that next Friday, the Bank of Russia will increase the key bet on 100 b. p. up to 9.5%.”
++++
Sadly,
Russia is viewed by the rest of the free world as a barely functioning dictatorship.
Where the ruler, jails, poisons or murders all political opposition.
Not a great way to run an open and transparent economy if the banks are forced to appease the whim of billionaire Czar Putin.
I suspect that eventually things like bread and eggs will become so expensive even Czar Putins billions won’t save him from the starving mobs of serfs howling for his head on a pike.
Perhaps if he is lucky enough to escape with planeloads of bullion and diamonds he can flee to China and live in a gilded cage while the peasants back in Russia tour his billion dollar Black Sea palace…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oELvi4Qy754
#104 Mr Canada on 02.05.22 at 9:38 am
Yes, Oil is one a tear, Biden pleads for the middle east to increase supply so gas prices drop in time for the mid term elections.
Pleads?
He just should invade them.
He would get the oil and then look “strong” and the Dems would win in a landslide.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Governor Ron DeSantis says it is “fraud GoFundMe to commandeer donations” from the truckers. The governor promises to work with Flordia’s attorney general to investigate GoFundMe’s “deceptive practices.”
Antifa group Riot Kitchen was arrested in Kenosha by US Marshals while planning attacks in the city and filling fuel cans. Their
@GoFundMe
is still active.
#77 Brian:
“in the responsibility of every believer to make disciples, be ambassadors of Jesus Christ this world, and to love others as Christ has loved us.”
One of the mission statements from the GoSendMe webpage, that is now taking donations supporting the “freedom convoy”. I wonder how that squares with the actions of the protesters and mission statement?
CEF is on a tear this morning.
Commenting with authority on all things local and international.
All from a few strokes on his computer.
Is there any reason why the CCTV camera’s on Parliament Hill have been offline since last Saturday?
DELETED
Re: #106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.05.22 at 10:21 am
Russia and Brazil understand how to quell inflation. You raise interest rates above the inflation rate. Hopefully the rest of the world wakes up soon.
Re: #101 Fortune500 on 02.05.22 at 7:56 am
The Canadian real estate market will follow the U.S. residential real estate market. To a lesser extent up and to a greater extent down. Disposable income and wage gains are almost non-existent in Canada.
Nothing’s gonna change.
Boomers still gonna rule!
We are real “cling-ons”.
#23 all done on 02.04.22 at 3:31 pm
everyone going back to work soon enough. out of pj’s into suits again. what a tough life. covid is for all intents and purposes over.
would have been done sooner if everyone just got vaccinated.
buildings will be full again. cant wait to pay $2/L for gas soon enough and be asking for 10% wage hikes.
_____________________________________________
Yes, yes and yes!!!
Thank Dog, there is still some intelligent life floating around out there!
#95 Nonplused on 02.05.22 at 12:31 am
“[…] but it just hasn’t made the news.” You just need to turn on the TV or read the newspaper. It’s all over the news. But you only follow Fox News and alt-right social media, don’t you?”
“[…] But unfortunately if you choose to live near the pig farm you have to live with the smell.” So in your analogy the Parliament Buildings are the pig farm, and lawlessness is acceptable but only if it’s done by right-wingers. If I’ve interpreted you correctly, your comment just may be your stupidest ever. :(
#93 The REIT stuff on 02.04.22 at 11:41 pm
Garth, you forgot to include REITS in your 2022 assessment. Allow me to make you shine like the star that you are…
– REITS, overall, will continue to have yet another spectacular year or two
– They are valued differently than SFH. No emotions, no FOMO … just pure bottom line yield.
– Since demand for SFHs will take a hit at some point because fewer consumers will be able to carry them, there will be increased demand for rental units, such as multifamily.
– the smart REITS loaded up on the longest term, lowest rates available when remortgaging over the past 20 months. This means their WACC cost to borrow will be very low when compared to historical numbers
– despite potential cap rate problems because of higher interest costs, the positive state of the economy including inflation and salary increases bodes well for rental increases to be absorbed
– industrial/commercial REITS will thrive, Multifamily will excel and high quality retail will lag slightly but still outperform most other assets. Retail that contains essential type businesses anchored by a large grocery chain were little affected thru the pandemic.
You’re welcome, Garth!
==========================
I guess my post got deleted as I THOUGHT I gave golden advice. WHY?!
Im not repeating the details.
You are correct REITs go on sale to0. You can capture value then.
I personal own commercial warehouses and I have no gov in my face on rent controls and other gov BS. 2.2 mil invested 5 years ago is 6mil now with major cash flow.
REITS are the answer for peeps that cant afford RE.
to #106 crowdedelevatorfartz
*************
Mark what is true:
1. Watching CNN news on regular base?
2. Drunk?
3. Sick?
4. All above?
#118 Gravy Train on 02.05.22 at 12:37 pm
=======================
Hay Gravy
If a person has any critical think abilities at all.
One would know we live in a matrix of BS and manipulation.
Take T2 and all his scandals…. He cant even answer for his scams.
He’s still our leader? Still WT Hell.
Campbells monologs got it correct.
Here we are our pig government.
If you got a water well you need to register it and pay tax on it NOW.
My neighbor’s a driller. You can drill a 400ft DRY hole for $25,000.
Do they want to pick up that tab for that?
These guys are out of control pigs.
Zero risk and all the benefits.
Now the LOTA….register all you commercial properties to prove your not a money launderer. I have 14 that $4000 down the crapper.
We have out of control gov that are absolute pigs…but then again real pigs don’t waist stuff.
#112 Brian on 02.05.22 at 10:56 am
Is there any reason why the CCTV camera’s on Parliament Hill have been offline since last Saturday?
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The truth hurts the agenda.
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#118 Gravy Train on 02.05.22 at 12:37 pm
#95 Nonplused on 02.05.22 at 12:31 am
“[…] but it just hasn’t made the news.” You just need to turn on the TV or read the newspaper. It’s all over the news. But you only follow Fox News and alt-right social media, don’t you?”
“[…] But unfortunately if you choose to live near the pig farm you have to live with the smell.” So in your analogy the Parliament Buildings are the pig farm, and lawlessness is acceptable but only if it’s done by right-wingers. If I’ve interpreted you correctly, your comment just may be your stupidest ever. :(
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You didn’t score very high in English class, did you? The pig farm reference was an analogy alluding to the fact that protests usually end up in front of parliament, as one would expect, and if you live there you kind of have to expect that sort of thing from time to time. This one is longer and bigger (and more noisy) than most, but you never know how such a thing is going to turn out. I chose pigs because the whole operation of politics stinks (figuratively).
No, I do not watch Fox News, except maybe the odd clip on YouTube. They are MSM just like the rest of them, and thus political in nature.
If you are going to try and ridicule someone you should try and get close.
The worst thing I’ve seen so far is a protester get run over in Winnipeg in what was clearly an attempted murder. It is clear from the video that the protesters were letting the cars through but this guy went out of his way to ram someone.
#124 Nonplused on 02.05.22 at 6:36 pm
“You didn’t score very high in English class, did you?” I’ve won academic awards, and received professional commendations. Can you truthfully say the same?
“[…] This [protest] is longer and bigger (and more noisy) than most, but you never know how such a thing is going to turn out.[…]” Ottawa’s police chief Peter Sloly has described this as a ‘siege’ and an ‘occupation’. He said approx. 150 officers are patrolling with a focus on addressing ‘unlawful, threatening conduct,’ i.e., mischief, hate, harassment, intimidation and other similar behaviours.
“No, I do not watch Fox News, except maybe the odd clip on YouTube. They are MSM just like the rest of them, and thus political in nature.” You’ve linked articles from Zero Hedge and Breitbart News in the past, so don’t gaslight me and others.
“If you are going to try and ridicule someone you should try and get close.” Take your blinders off. I’m trying to help you to find the better angels of your nature.
“The worst thing I’ve seen so far is a protester get run over in Winnipeg in what was clearly an attempted murder.[…]” Police said they’ve opened 50 criminal investigations, 11 related to hate crimes. Stop following alt-right social media.
#119 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.05.22 at 4:29 pm
#93 The REIT stuff on 02.04.22 at 11:41 pm
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I guess my post got deleted as I THOUGHT I gave golden advice. WHY?!
Im not repeating the details.
You are correct REITs go on sale to0. You can capture value then.
I personal own commercial warehouses and I have no gov in my face on rent controls and other gov BS. 2.2 mil invested 5 years ago is 6mil now with major cash flow.
REITS are the answer for peeps that cant afford RE.
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Wow. The audacity of this poster. In his vain attempt to provide “golden advice” on my very solid perspective of REITS over the next 2 years, he gets his comments deleted by Garth. He then has to ask Garth WHY? I would love to see your “golden advice” that managed to trigger Garth to the point he felt he needed to delete it!
So rather than reworking his deleted comments and providing some useful dialogue to the post, he chooses instead just to tell everyone how smart he was with his own investments.
Well, sorry to tell you, my REIT investments had returns in a similar ballpark. Yet, I assumed significantly less risk because of the huge diversification I had (hundreds of properties, several geographic locations, in Canada and internationally). I also spent next to no effort managing properties and took advantage of economies of scale, reducing my overall expenses.
I also said no such thing in my post ……”You are correct REITs go on sale to0″
Finally, I CAN afford owning property directly and have so in the past. But I chose to live my life and worked overseas on numerous occasions, travelled extensively ….all while choosing not to be tied down by property ownership.