A few days back a two-bedroom condo in a seven-year-old building with yucky broadloom carpeting located in a dreary xburb an hour west of DT Toronto listed for an outrageous $869,000 and sold for just under $1.1 million. Gulp.
Even further west a Lilliputian bung in a hick city tethered to the GTA by a commuter busline changed hands in 2020 for $444,000. Eighteen months the same place (no renos) was offered in the eights. It just sold with multiple offers for well over a million. A $700,000 bump, or 160%, in a year and a half.
In Toronto in the last four weeks the average price for low-rise homes (with dirt, or a facsimile) averaged $1.63 million. The month before it was $1.49 million. That’s a 30-day increase of 9.3%, or $140,000. Expressed as an annualized increase, it’s 112%. In fact in January of 2020 the average property (includes condos) cost $855,000. Last January that has risen to $1.1 million. This January it’s $1.45 million. And the gain in the last month alone was 10%.
Yikes. Look at this.
Few houses for sale as inventory plops:
Source: Scott Ingram, CPA, CA; TRREB
And here’s what that does to prices…
Source: TRREB, MLS
There’s more.
The typical condo now changes hands for $740,000 in the Toronto area. Last years sales of new units exploded by 69%. It costs an average of $1,322 to buy one foot. Vancouver’s a mess, too. The average property price of $1.2 million there is up 18.5% in the last year. Inventory levels have crashed in both urban regions. Says the local TO real estate board, plainly: “There is fierce competition for a scarce number of homes for sale, which, in turn, increases prices.”
In Toronto, by the way, a 44% drop in the number of houses for sale has yielded an 18% decline in sales. The well is drying up. So properties escalate. Now the average hike for all residential real estate is 29% year/year – or six times the official inflation rate.
This is a blatant failure of public policy. It’s stunning. Especially coming six months after a federal election which, arguably, was about houses, houses & more houses. In that space of time the escalation has surpassed anything we saw in 2017 when politicians freaked and moved fast to corral the market. This time they’ve given up. Let ‘er rip. It’s an abdication the federal government has been allowed to get away with while we all fussed over omicron. Now, truckers. The consequences could be a disaster.
Why?
Simple. The majority of people who don’t own a home at this moment in time never will, unless the market corrects. The majority of those who currently own can’t afford to move. They couldn’t acquire their own homes at current valuations. The market has frozen. Listings sit at the lowest level in memory. Prices are at the highest in history. Demand continues as the population grows and matures. The single biggest cohort is now the Mills, in their prime nesting years, as we head into the traditional annual rutting season. Whoa. Stand back.
And more gas on the fire? Yup. Mortgage rates. In a month central banks in Canada and the US say they’ll begin a tightening cycle which will likely last a couple of years and increase rates by 600%. Home loans will follow. In fact yesterday fixed-rate mortgages popped at a couple of banks.
Because everyone knows CB rates can’t stay at one quarter of one percent, the kiddos have been madly pre-approving, and are now hot to pull the trigger, unleashing their borrowed bucks in the next couple of months. The change in monetary policy, in other words, is pulling demand forward. What the virus, loose CB policy, willing lenders, WFH, speculation and FOMO have done to housing is breathtaking. And, like the pandemic, it cannot last.
Peter Routledge is a guy worth listening to. He’s the boss over at OSFI, which is the federal bank regulator. Property prices will be going down as interest rates go up, he proclaims. In fact, the haircut could be 20%. The economy will be okay (“We can absorb that volatility”) but this could be seriously uncomfortable news for buyers now scrambling to get on the property ladder.
After all, a 20% drop in Toronto would shave $240,000 off the average property’s value. So someone buying with, say, 10% down would end up under water – owing more then they own. Debt would exceed equity – plus all the onerous and recurring costs of residential real estate. Not a happy situation, potentially taking years to unwind.
What now?
Well, rates are going up. That’s a done deal. Routledge is probably worth listening to. And there are zero bargains right now in any major market. Buyers will be paying top dollar and can only hope that the insanity continues to paper over their blinding house lust.
The wild card is government. After sitting on their collective hands through this, it’s likely politicians will pounce. New restrictions on investors will dampen sales and could increase listings. But hiking the CMHC limit to $1.25 million and bringing in that crazy FHSA will spike demand and swell debt. As the pandemic eases, WFH will diminish and that will impact the burbs and hinterlands.
“Canada’s housing market isn’t about to buckle,” says RBC. Quite so. But for the nesting gen, this is agony. Will they react?
About the picture: “This is Jessie, or as she was AKA, Jessie The Wonder Dog,” writes Alan. “She had the softest and most luxurious fur, and was without a doubt, the smartest animal I’ve ever seen. I trained her in sentences rather than single word commands, thus she would dazzle guests with her “human-like” understanding. For example, on one occasion she was snuggled up next to me on the couch when company arrived. I looked down at Jessie and simply said, “Jessie, I don’t think there’s enough room up here for you”. She looked at me, hopped off the couch and went to her dog bed to continue her relaxation. Needless to say, everyone was amazed. She’s been gone now for over 10yrs, and is sorely missed. I still have yet to see a smarter dog.”
Have a beast to share with the pack? Send me a picture and words – to “[email protected]” – Garth
190 comments ↓
Simple. The majority of people who don’t own a home at this moment in time never will, unless the market corrects. The majority of those who currently own can’t afford to move. They couldn’t acquire their own homes at current valuations. The market has frozen. Listings sit at the lowest level in memory. Prices are at the highest in history.
====================================
Can’t move up.
Can’t move out.
Just rent and focus on other important things in life:
1. Mental Health
2. Physical Fitness
3. Vacation Travel
4. Social Interaction/Friends
And focus less on:
1. Reading Toronto Life Real Estate Stories
2. Re-Roofing Bills
3. One-Upping The Neighbours
Love this guy. I know we will be seeing him around a lot more upcoming. Poilievre is going to rock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mapxta3nKcA
Bank of England just raised rates today by 50 pips. Why can’t Canada do the right thing and follow suit?
I really don’t care about people living beyond their means , what I care is inflation . That beast needs to be tamed as soon as possible .
Went grocery shopping yesterday and meat prices are even higher than a month ago!
Let alone the empty shelfs , but we know whose fault that is … eh Justin?
Hi Garth, long-time reader. I am one of those mills, 40 married, kid, dog, will never own. I am hopeful since one single level Government can’t solve the problem of housing, or even who can remove protestors. What are your thoughts on making rent tax deductible? I just feel that if I can only afford to rent with a young family, having a tax-deductible rent for living would help offset the economic disadvantage of tax-free gains on a house. I understand as a renter I don’t pay maintenance, but I feel this wouldn’t punish homeowners or landlords either. Doesn’t pop a bubble, and let’s be honest, at this point that is clearly the goal of Government.
Looking forward to $5M avg prices. Thanks Canada! I will react by staying a loser renter…
Why all this DOOM AND GLOOM, Garth???
Relax… It will all sort itself out.
It’s time to take a Holiday….. you really deserve one.
So the worst case is correcting to prices from 2 months ago?
The $1M dollar dream!
It costs about $5000 a month of after tax dollars to mortgage $1M @ 3%. Add another $1000 a month for property taxes, maintenance & other misc. stuff.
$6000 to own vs. $2500-$3000 to rent.
It just doesn’t make sense to buy unless you plan on flipping the place before the tides turn.
I can’t see how any normal person wanting to buy their own property, who isn’t an investor or bankrolled by family can get into the market.
Surprised we aren’t hearing much from the millenials these days. Have they all given up too?
How many of the central banks could have raised rates already this year and did NOT.
Come March, another supply chain issue, Covid or war.
Pls pick one from the above list and realize NO Interest Rate Hikes.
My god, after over a decade is has not gone up. Governments could not pay their debt if rates went up….real estate slows down….less taxes. That is political death. Trudeau will NOT let this happen.
BoE jumped to a half point today. Try to keep up. – Garth
This society is hooked on debt, and soon it’ll be time to pay the piper. Then cue the whining and demands for the gubmint to save their hides. Blaming anyone but themselves for becoming the greatest fools of all. Pity the fools.
Some people are hitting the jackpot. Why even work?
So about a 700K profit on a 20k investment in 18 months and you wonder why ordinary people are continuing to buy housing. Even if housing crashes 50% we are back to last years prices and the same people will buy up any stock.
I put an offer in to buy a townhouse and was told I was one of 35 offers that they were considering, but I would need to substantially sweeten the bid(200K) to even make it to the top five.
No rate hikes coming, economic suicide now.
With no sale there are no profits. And, yes, rates will rise. – Garth
There’s one big factor keeping this party going…Baby Boomers. Boomers are making a killing on their properties and gifting down payments/money to their kids. This transfer of wealth is the only way for Mills to get in the market at this point. It’s keeping everything afloat.
If only this photo was true, if only dogawful canines would just stay away, the world would be so much better……………….
This footage of the Bank of Canada governor speaking to the senate regarding inflation is wild – Stephen Punwasi
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1489073403059388417
I wouldn’t touch a condo. Who knows how much value there will be in 30 years when things start to fall apart if the board members cheap out on maintenance.
In other news, crude is now at 90 USD. While I’m not optimistic about the government, Canadian equities will do very well at these prices.
Forgot to add this to the previous comment….
No taxes for $447,000 in profits in one year.
Don’t worry, Canada will shake down small businesses and service people to carry the tax load.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1488994637012508672
Peter Routledge is one to listen to???? How about the former head of BOC – he said approx 20% decrease in prices! Since then…prices have gone up 30+%.
Not to mention IMF and World Bank raising concerns over the decade.
Yet NO Rate hikes!!!
The worst part is, Prime Minister Poilevre isn’t going to do a thing about it.
$5000/mo mortgage, property taxes, insurance
$650/mo car
$400/mo Kraft dinner
$1000/mo retirement savings
$400/mo gas and car insurance
——-
$7500/mo net
= negative amount of disposable income from a gig job to buy product from dividend paying investment companies.
The party is so over!
“Buyers will be paying top dollar and can only hope that the insanity continues to paper over their blinding house lust.”
…………………..
The inflation it would take to do that would kill the value of the dollar completely.
Is there any saving this country before it does?
What could a NEW Conservative government do to save Canada.
(I know what i would do)
They could immediately announce they will be spending only to subsidize all who are making less than a – to be specified – amount of income per year in order to keep up with inflation for food energy and rent specifically with little other spending for 5 years.
Force the banks to reset all mortgages without penalty at the same existing rates already locked in today and set the re-set for 5 years.
After the mortgage re-set … raise the interest rate 2 points ahead of the inflation rate and keep it there until inflation subsides.
Then in 5 years drop the interest and mortgage rates back down to where they are today so all can renew their mortgages without any real hardship.
Nobody will want to buy houses via mortgages in those next 5 years save for the straight cash deals and none will want to sell unless they have to at reduced prices that will in 5 years time see a reduction in inflated house prices.
Tough measures for tough times but doable without the greater bloodletting of a hard-nose recession…but a softer one that will see Canadians through to much much better times than being led down the garden path by today’s governments to total economic ruin.
Led by government, the banks, realtors and all the other conmen who should be made to suffer with the rest of us a minimum of 5 years.
Crazy? Insane? … not near as crazy and insane as things are going to get without doing something along those lines.
…but crazy and insane is what we’ll get and you can bet your lives on it.
This is a blatant failure of public policy. It’s stunning. Especially coming six months after a federal election which, arguably, was about houses, houses & more houses.
———
No it wasn’t. You know that, Garth, better than most. It was about politicians getting reelected no matter the cost. Promise anything. And a fine job those politicians did. I give them an A++ on retaining 6 figure incomes. Absolute genius!
Just as “the budget will balance itself”, housing will balance itself too.
What? The budget hasn’t balanced itself? Oh. Oh crap!
Well, my wonderful B&D portfolio continues to do as promised, keeping balanced and globally diversified at -0.31% ytd. I elect to maintain the B&D approach.
Thanks Garth, very well written. We were talking this week with our 16 year old daughter and her friends, all talented straight A students eager to head off to university and start careers. These are our future leaders and they already are mention that they may never own a home. At that age I could not care less about owning anything other than a Camaro – mortgages were for old, boring people like my parents and renting was freedom. It shows how screwed up we are now about home ownership.
This interview with Trudeau’s brother was fascinating for anyone who would be interested in his perspective.
https://rumble.com/vtl5nf-interview-with-kyle-kemper-half-brother-of-justin-trudeau.html?fbclid=IwAR0oQgZjfMW8c1zo5tDcvvG512h3nDd60-MAa5D5wxnlvnLhdfv4WR_L7G0
“Stay away” is so right!
Don’t come up for here for cross-country skiing, or snowmobiling or ANYTHING!
Do you understand, all you selfish southern hillbillies with your slimy pathogens from Oakville?
Don’t put any more stress on our healthcare resources.
You are all parasites.
Stay.
Away.
A MOMENT OF SILENCE, PLEASE..
I suspect that the overindebted have fallen into the trap of the time honored view that since we cannot know the future, there is no point in trying to second guess how events might pan out. The possibility of a catastrophic rise in interest rates never enters their feeble minds and therefore tends to be ignored until it actually happens. New topic, the bankers moving forward will not be pulling their punches, before long you will be seeing a great number of the overindebted with blank stares and missing teeth. Now a moment of silence, please, for our fallen real estate agents. They have all lost their jobs (no listing inventory) many are unemployable without any marketable skills. As they live and die by commission, and with no buffer of rainy day savings, I am hopeful that a “Go Fund Me Account” can be set up. With numerous happy past clients, all contributing generously, I am hopeful, if we pull together, we can get these struggling pillars of society back on the beam. Sleep tight my little beauties.
Personally I am not upset at what is happening I am just worried about what is going to happen and the fact it is almost impossible to insulate yourself from potential carnage and also it is impossible to plan for the kids future.
And another example of how insane it is right now….
Even the real estate bulls are shocked…
Ben Rabidoux
@BenRabidoux
I want to start a super thread of insane Canadian home sales that show just how wild the market is right now. They have to be REPEAT sales of the same property. Let’s see what you’ve got. I’ll post the craziest.
139 Glynde Burnaby BC
$1 500 000 TAX Free in 24Months…
https://twitter.com/vandanwood/status/1489240014231781379
Garth, like they say you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
Unless you can suck and blow at the same time.
In 2014 I remember looking at a house in North Van for $700k and thinking man this is overpriced.
8 years later it now sells for ~2x or $1.4M and I am thinking man this is really overpriced now haha.
I guess I should have bought then? When does it end? Who can afford it? I’ve thought about it all.
One thing I realized is that today we have millennial power couples (MPC) where both hubby/wifey are making ~$100k+ each. IE: Nurse/Fire Fighter, Sales Rep/Dental Hygienist, Engineer/Coder, etc. It seems like there are a lot of them out there.
If we benchmark a ~$200k household income, free daycare from Nana, downpayment help from Papa, $200k-$300k in equity from the apartment they sold to buy the house, adding a “tax-free” tenant in the basement and what are we left with? Whatever the maximum $ is the bank will give to this couple to buy. Prices will never drop below what a MPC will max out at.
This is where the $1M+ detached houses come from.
Only interest rates and qualification rules can change this. They will always spend the max they can get.
#257 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.03.22 at 3:19 pm
If that means ” Mr. $500 Billion in 5 years” Debt guy is gone….
I’d hold my nose and elect Bonobo the Clown..
—
Huh. Not me.
Best case scenario is you wind up with the likes of Trump, Orban, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Putin… Worse case… well…
I’m wondering why we pay these politicians a full salary when we are receiving (at best) part time leadership. The investing advice to ‘sit tight & do nothing’ for those with B&D portfolios when markets do the mambo seems to have become the new leadership style for our politicians.
Given that housing has become the moral equivalent of winning a lottery how does that impact the political announcements of affordable housing for the masses? Isn’t there a ‘Minister of Housing’ who is tasked with creating housing for low income individuals? With housing being so expensive, how is that going to work? Is there the possibility that a ‘low income’ person who acquires one of these government builds could then sell it on the open market? Talk about your lottery win if that comes to pass…..
To all you masochists who still think buying a house is cool let me break it down for you:
– cutting lawn (lame – like seriously. This is not 16th century France)
– renos (trying to impress or, more likely, ’cause HGTV told you so. And are you going to like it? Nope…more renos )
– animal/bug infestations (almost certain – and sooo embarrassing if your friends find out – loser)
– trucker neighbors (get out your pooper-scooper)
– pot smoking neighbors (oh, but think about the children – ref. to next point)
– pompous narcissists who scrape their noses on icicles while trying to remove the ice from their Teslas (high density here – and, as many will attest to – YAWWNN)
Oh, and if you realize your dreams and get a nice, big house 13″ from your neighbor with a lawn and garage? Do what everyone else does by making sure a screen is in every room. Wouldn’t want to miss out on your daily dose of dupedness*Og*.
Og
Garth, what affect( if adopted) digital currency do to our privacy?
Stock market getting into trouble reduces the “wealth effect,” and causes folks to put off real estate purchases.
BOC should consider tying Canadian dollar to house price index as a standard as they don’t have any gold reserve anyways. Our dollar could be the strongest among G7.
The Liberals are absolutely destroying future Canadians.
Cdns have to look in the mirror and realize they are the problem when it comes to RE.
Gov gives the people what they want, basically a get rich quick Ponzi scheme that is tax free.
What’s not to like?
Everywhere else a home is just a home and not an ATM piggy bank and/or retirement income scheme.
It’s greed, plain and simple.
A 20% correction?
Or a 50-70% CRASH?
In my area, a 50% crash (or ‘correction’, for the tender snowflakes out there), would merely bring prices back to 2015 levels – when prices were still ‘too high’.
So, logic would have it that we will get something big enough to ‘normalize’ prices again. All bubbles eventually pop, don’t they?
REPLY TO #5 Ryan on 02.03.22 at 4:13 pm
Hi Garth, long-time reader. I am one of those mills, 40 married, kid, dog, will never own. I am hopeful since one single level Government can’t solve the problem of housing, or even who can remove protestors. What are your thoughts on making rent tax deductible? I just feel that if I can only afford to rent with a young family, having a tax-deductible rent for living would help offset the economic disadvantage of tax-free gains on a house. I understand as a renter I don’t pay maintenance, but I feel this wouldn’t punish homeowners or landlords either. Doesn’t pop a bubble, and let’s be honest, at this point that is clearly the goal of Government.
________________________________
What you are asking for is to make your rental more affordable by the government /taxpayer kicking in the benefit to you. It is no different than the government adding liquidity to the market with their proposed rise in CMHC amount or even the same as lowering interest rates to lower costs to purchase a house. Ultimately the added liquidity would result in a rise in price in your rental as now you and everyone else in your boat has more disposable income and the “greedy” landlords can now ask for more money because you will pay it to rent because if you don’t the next person will. Adding liquidity to any market results in a rise in prices. So while it may work for the first year, by year 2 prices will have risen to meet the level of tax deduction you received negating any benefit to you. Ultimately people without assets in the last couple years of inflation and printing of money by the government benefit the most and those without assets/renters and first time buyers without a pile of investments are screwed by Trudeau and his financial wizards. The reality is while Trudeau preaches he is for the middle and lower class and not the wealthy, his policies have benefitted the wealthy the most. Good luck
Alan, yes what a lovely creature Jessie was. Such expressive eyes.
Condolences; even after 10 years (we’re at 6), we miss our wonder dogs! Thank dog for great memories.
For today’s FOMOers: yes, that’s a lawn in a back yard.
Ain’t it grand? Many, many, many grand actually.
Where I live, the locals cannot buy, nor can they rent. Really serious problem.
What I cannot figure, is how do immigrants do this? How is it people coming this year, next year, next several years, live, anywhere, anyhow? And clearly, they do/will.
If locals, Canadians resident their entire lives, cannot do this, what does it say about us, when immigrants can do it?
Everyone is a millionaire until they aren’t. The pendulum is about to swing the other way. The future belongs to those that see it coming.
Penny Henny BANNED??
That’s disappointing. I thought they gave 3 pretty good
ETF recommendations the other day.
Sigh……
Madness – What to Do
If you own a house in Toronto or Vancouver…
If retired, sell and move to Alberta or any rural place with far lower house prices.
If still working, consider if you can do the same and work from home in a cheaper area.
If you can’t move can you find a piece of cheap dirt and build a house of two or more on it. Can you add a residential unit to your existing house to rent or sell? Bull dozer guy IHCDT9, you can do this?
REPLY TO #5 Ryan on 02.03.22 at 4:13 pm
Hi Garth, long-time reader. I am one of those mills, 40 married, kid, dog, will never own. I am hopeful since one single level Government can’t solve the problem of housing, or even who can remove protestors. What are your thoughts on making rent tax deductible? I just feel that if I can only afford to rent with a young family, having a tax-deductible rent for living would help offset the economic disadvantage of tax-free gains on a house. I understand as a renter I don’t pay maintenance, but I feel this wouldn’t punish homeowners or landlords either. Doesn’t pop a bubble, and let’s be honest, at this point that is clearly the goal of Government.
________________________________
What you are asking for is to make your rental more affordable by the government /taxpayer kicking in the benefit to you. It is no different than the government adding liquidity to the market with their proposed rise in CMHC amount or even the same as lowering interest rates to lower costs to purchase a house. Ultimately the added liquidity would result in a rise in price in your rental as now you and everyone else in your boat has more disposable income and the “greedy” landlords can now ask for more money because you will pay it to rent because if you don’t the next person will. Adding liquidity to any market results in a rise in prices. So while it may work for the first year, by year 2 prices will have risen to meet the level of tax deduction you received negating any benefit to you. Ultimately people without assets in the last couple years of inflation and printing of money by the government benefit the most and those without assets/renters and first time buyers without a pile of investments are screwed by Trudeau and his financial wizards. The reality is while Trudeau preaches he is for the middle and lower class and not the wealthy, his policies have benefitted the wealthy the most. Good luck
____________________________________
Sorry error there, change “Ultimately people without assets” to “WITH” assets.
Great points Garth. I will say though, that wfh may be more inbedded than you think. Had a town hall at BMO today, and wfh is “the default” now for Capital Markets and Tech / Operations. Perhaps we go into the office 2 days a week max (depending on function). This is now a permanent change.
Nothing is permanent. – Garth
1 Kitty
“Can’t move up.
Can’t move out.”
———
Kittys are so smart.
A lot of sabre rattling going on here in Europa.
NATO going on a full court press to show Russian aircraft intercepts, troop increases here and there and a large navy training go on in the Adriatic (too close to home for me).
https://twitter.com/USNavyEurope/status/1489268413612625922
https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1488898482186428416
https://twitter.com/JFC_Naples/status/1488883667124563970
Strategic Turkey showing clearly where its allegiances are…
https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1489222656670973952
————–
How it ends I do not know but this all started in the last couple of days.
At least live 10 nm from Uncle Sam’s AVB where they have F16s and Stealth Fighters. I hope I don’t get a front row seat to hostilities…
Good news is that Vald is still talking.
https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/1488989645891420160
And congratulating.
https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/1489217934962704384
There’s at least to remain hopeful.
Diversity is strength. TSX is up. What is everyone complaining about.
Canada is worth far more than Canadians are selling it for.
Pierre Pollievre does not, and can not appeal to most Canadians. If he becomes leader we can expect another Conservative loss at the polls.
The Liberals are looking more and more like the only viable centrist option.
#8 SWM
“So the worst case is correcting to prices from 2 months ago?”
Exactly!!! Actually, if you factor what G is saying will happen over the next few months with all the pre-approved buyers rushing in to by before rates rise, the post correction prices will be higher than now.
It always overshoots. 20% is a joke…. more like 33%.
DELETED
Btw,
too bad about Penny Henny. I had a sig. other in high school named Henny. Super cute.
Oh well. Hurts so good, I guess.
Og
I know the stats say low inventory, I’m really surprised to see that. I’m seeing ALOT of houses being posted for sale in my area just north of the GTA. I’ve never seen them list so quickly in February. Barrie had something like 200 for sale last week now they have over 300 today.
“Peter Routledge is a guy worth listening to. He’s the boss over at OSFI, which is the federal bank regulator. Property prices will be going down as interest rates go up, he proclaims. In fact, the haircut could be 20%. ” – GT
Riddle me this then. If the chicken hawks at OSFI are correct, and interest rate increases are a fait accompli, then why doesn’t it get more press attention? Why isn’t it a news item somewhere on the front pages of the daily newspapers instead of buried in a small column in the lower page of the business section, if it makes it there at all? Likewise for Evan Siddal’s warnings in the past.
I guess ‘Russiaphobia, Russaphobia’ is just far more in the public interest.
Advice to Millennials: hunt down and stream an old ‘Boomer’ movie from 1973 called ” The Sting” ( Robert Redford & Paul Newman).
If you can’t identify the “mark” in this current real estate grifter play, it’s ‘you’.
A lot of expression in that dog Jessie the Wonder Dog’s eyes. They seem to say ” I know it was you Fredo…”
I must say — when I saw “Jessie The…” my brain filled it in as “Jessie The Body Ventura”. Tres Gen X.
Bank of Canada governor says it’s unclear how quickly inflation will drop
Tiff Macklem reiterated that interest rates would have to start going up this year to tackle inflation
via Financial Post
Quickly as opposed to how long.
Then this:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-wages-parliament-column-don-pittis-1.6334912
New signs of wage inflation may force Bank of Canada’s hand in raising rates
Friday’s expected jobs decline may offer little inflation relief as wage demands grow
#262 Prime Mistral on 02.03.22 at 4:02 pm
…fatties…
—
First, Wow!
Second: fun fact, morbidity associated with body composition is a U-shape and the bottom (i.e. longest living) of that U incorporates people you would probably call “fatties”. Why a U instead of a J? Skinny people can be very unhealthy. They also tend to break when they fall over.
Exercise says more about health than body composition. Don’t be a jerk.
#50 Rach on 02.03.22 at 5:59 pm
I know the stats say low inventory, I’m really surprised to see that. I’m seeing ALOT of houses being posted for sale in my area just north of the GTA. I’ve never seen them list so quickly in February. Barrie had something like 200 for sale last week now they have over 300 today.
—————
Nothing, absolutely nothing on the market in my area.
As the say “RE is local”
Funny stats:
For the average house in Canada, you can buy 3 in the States.
Time to move, boys.
Covid restrictions are being dropped by many countries. Canada still requires a negative test to enter the country even though the science behind this is out of date. Proof of vaccination is reasonable .
https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-02-02/new-turning-point-more-countries-easing-covid-restrictions
Appreciate you calling it like it is, Garth. It’s what attracted me to your blog in the first place.
Not only is it a failure of public policy, but it’s also deeply immoral. The so-called COVID heroes – the poor service workers who have kept store shelves stocked and take-out orders flowing – have seen their rents absolutely skyrocket. Meanwhile the laptop crowd have been able to work from home, and earn more money from their assets appreciating than from working. I am fortunate enough to be in the laptop crowd, but I see clearly what’s happening. It’s sick, bordering on sociopathic, policy – feeding on the young and asset-poor so that foreign and domestic speculators (sorry, “investors”) can own more.
And what do the Liberals do in response? Ramp up immigration to spur even more demand, and propose a new savings account that will do nothing to improve affordability. We are dealing with sheer incompetence or sheer greed, or perhaps some combination of the two.
A 20% decline in prices would get us back to what – mid-2021 price levels?
The government doesn’t understand the scale of the cluster-you-know-what that now exists.
#26 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 02.03.22 at 4:50 pm
Speaking of parasites: there is a reason cities exist. They are integrated labour markets, are ferociously efficient in their use of resources and are responsible for most of our wealth creation. Rural residents generally contribute much less to GDP than their urban cousins, and take more in the way of government services than they contribute in taxes. There are individual exceptions but, as I wrote, there are reasons cities exists. People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
I’m not an expert but how can it not go down more than 20%? I mean even at that most people still can’t afford to buy a house. You briefly mention the trucker nonsense when earlier today the media say they have an internal memo where Candice Bergen thinks it’s a good thing to play political games with. Naturally.
The market may see a run of the mill 5-10% correction, but it will be temporary and prices will rise again. Some basic math:
2021 was a record year for home sales at 667,000 homes sold. That represents only 2.5% of Canada’s adult (25 and older) population. Or if those sales were all done by couples (unlikely), approximately 5% of Canada’s adult population.
These are high earners, some of which will have home equity already for a down payment and others will be gifted a down payment from their parents. Others will have saved the old fashioned way. And the vast majority are qualifying for their mortgage at 5.25%. In other words, there is easily plenty of demand to have home prices continue to go up, even if supply increases slightly due to new regulations on investors.
#42 wallflower on 02.03.22 at 5:30 pm
Where I live, the locals cannot buy, nor can they rent. Really serious problem.
What I cannot figure, is how do immigrants do this? How is it people coming this year, next year, next several years, live, anywhere, anyhow? And clearly, they do/will.
If locals, Canadians resident their entire lives, cannot do this, what does it say about us, when immigrants can do it?
****
A lot of immigrants to Canada have a lot of money when they come over. Being an immigrant doesn’t necessarily mean they are poor or come from a third world country. Far from it.
Refugees however, usually don’t have much.
As we often see, Toronto is home to the dumbest people on the planet.
CTV News
CRA to send out new round of letters checking eligibility from CERB recipients
1 week ago
Yikes!
DELETED
You know, there are days you wished people that want to live a Virtual Life would just go buy a dog or a cat instead…wait until Halloween to dress up.
FB • NASDAQ
Meta Platforms Inc
$237.76
-26.39%
-$85.24 Today
Closed: Feb 3, 6:36:43 PM UTC-5 · USD · NASDAQ
My Nasdaq 100 ETF thanks you Mark.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-02/meta-s-earnings-flop-threatens-to-derail-nasdaq-100-rebound
re #5 “What are your thoughts on making rent tax deductible? ”
Bet that would raise rents asap!
#265 Brian on 02.03.22 at 4:29 pm
@Brian
You may find this article educational.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/covid-19-transmission-scott-moe-1.6336479
Observer you have shown your intelligence by using a link to the CBC!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Brian you have shown your LACK of intelligence by using an ad hominem attack!
Ottawa police chief Sloly says 911 operators receiving a lot of nuisance calls, such as people asking about PM Trudeau’s whereabouts.
Canada has been using CMHC and BoC to (indirectly but very efficiently) print money via the RE sector for years.
And that was before the more recent Trudeau extravaganza!
The result: Off the charts housing inflation and inflation in general.
That’s how, along with high immigration, you attempt to feed GDP nominal growth to maintain the unsustainable socialist welfare state a bit longer… (Despite that our rationed health care is already imploding)
That this is not going to end well is the understatement of the decade!
You can see it coming can’t you?
This is getting crazy. Calgary is becoming infected with this disease now too. Inventory drying up at a rapid pace for houses and now condos, bidding wars which, have never happened before, and rents are jumping. The economy is not even fully opened up and we know there will be record immigration to Canada this year.
I doubt there will even be a spring inventory jump because there is nowhere to move to and new build houses are at least a year out and that’s as of right now. Only to get worse.
They’ve painted themselves in to a corner which was inevitable with such low rates, easy monetary and fiscal policies that no politician has the guts to fix and a slow pace of new housing builds. They all just hold their breath and hope the music doesn’t stop with no chairs to sit on while they’re still in office.
A CB that is too scared to raise even a meagre 25bps.
Brian, try to understand what the medical experts quoted in the article are saying. Don’t get distracted because CBC is quoting them.
RE prices in my area of W09 in the GTA is up 100% in 1 year. The houses I noticed were bought in late 2020, renovated, then flipped 100% over purchased price recently. Nice quality renos! Some were purchased, sold 1/2 year later for 50% more, with approved building plans but pending building permits. A few houses within blocks of my house that were flipped for 100%, have new families just moving in. Young millennials with 1 or more small kids. Very nice to see they have a chance to raise a family in a nice suburb. I talked to some of them on my daily walk and they confided that their parents were moving in soon with them as soon as they sold their home. Smart move, free daycare, mom’s cooking.
Probably unknown to them, Toronto just passed a new zoning by-law addendum to allow garden suites. Previously Toronto passed an addendum for secondary suites and also laneway housing. Next on the vote list will be allowing lot splits for all single family detached lots in Toronto. With all of these zoning changes, property prices will continue that climb, and anyone that was fortunate to get into housing in the Toronto area have now secured their families fortune and legacy. Congratulations on your purchase and you have no worry about pending corrections as long as your intention was to raise your family in a safe neighbourhood!
#49 Søren Angst on 02.03.22 at 5:41 pm
A lot of sabre rattling going on here in Europa.
NATO going on a full court press to show Russian aircraft intercepts, troop increases here and there and a large navy training go on in the Adriatic (too close to home for me).
https://twitter.com/USNavyEurope/status/1489268413612625922
https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1488898482186428416
https://twitter.com/JFC_Naples/status/1488883667124563970
Strategic Turkey showing clearly where its allegiances are…
https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1489222656670973952
————–
How it ends I do not know but this all started in the last couple of days.
At least live 10 nm from Uncle Sam’s AVB where they have F16s and Stealth Fighters. I hope I don’t get a front row seat to hostilities…
Good news is that Vald is still talking.
https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/1488989645891420160
And congratulating.
https://twitter.com/KremlinRussia_E/status/1489217934962704384
There’s at least to remain hopeful.
+++++++++++++++++
Maybe u did not know :
The United States also has an estimated 100 B-61 nuclear gravity bombs that are forward-deployed at six NATO bases in five European countries: Aviano and Ghedi in Italy; Büchel in Germany; Incirlik in Turkey; Kleine Brogel in Belgium; and Volkel in the Netherlands. The total estimated U.S. B-61 stockpile amounts to 230.
Still earning 2005 wages, but homes cost three times what I paid in 2005 (not to mention non-shelter inflation), and rents are starting to climb fast. My first child is on the way. At an age now where we either start a family now or just give up forever. My grandparents grew up in a wooden shack on the prairies, seven to a bed. We’ll make it work, but how sad this is where Canada has ended up.
Glad our investments are keeping us in the black with no debt.
The hollow threat of rate hikes will actually spur demand and higher prices.
Tiny rate increases aren’t going to have a big impact. There are “professionals” who can work around the little math problem to make monthly payments doable.
What will crash the market are prices, and they won’t stop going up by over 100k per month until the stupid people run out of available credit.
Negative rates will take along time to reach neutral, by the then the bubble will have burst.
And the record low rates will still be in place to help the rest of the rest of the economy.
SWM on 02.03.22 at 4:19 pm
So the worst case is correcting to prices from 2 months ago?
—————————-
Ya, house prices are extremely sticky on the upside. People would rather sell grandpa’s Victoria Cross than sell their house for less then what it was worth 6 months ago.
In order to get a meaningful correction you need a situation in which people have to sell or they default – that’s what happened in the US in 2008/09.
In Canada we have a lot of fat in the system that will maintain house prices in the event of any whiff of house price meltdown. People have all kinds of areas that they can cut – eating out, $100/month cell phone plans, $2000 goal camp for the kid, two late model leased cars….. The of course there is the parents – parents will do everything they can to keep junior in the house – truly on mark of failure to have the kid lose his/her house.
Then of course you have the federal government that is no longer constrained by the idea of any fiscal prudence. What another few hundred billion to support those at risk of losing there house. The federal government can also lean heavily on banks and/or legislate against the banks to delay or prevent foreclosure.
Ultimately not many people will be forced to sell.
The last time in Canada people were forced to sell houses was in the late 1980s, early 1990s in Ontario, due to the combination of rising interest rates and a recession. My recollection is that prices fell about 25% in the Toronto area in the early 1990s and remained at that level for the rest of the 1990s.
Think of those poor 5,000 real estate agents across the GTA. In spite of average sales <8 days, prices going through the roof with multiple offers there is zero inventory so little business for agents in the greatest real estate bonanza ever!
Just bought an investment property in Lower Brainland.
20% down approx 400k..
5 years from now it will be double approx $3.8M bought by some money launderers from abroad (blessings of our politicians).
Profit $1.9M tax free in 5 years.
Where else you get that type of return…oh, Bitcoin.
#205 CJ on 02.03.22 at 9:18 am
The peaceful truckers’ protest is the reason Canada’s Premiers are lifting mandates and restrictions.
…
This morning 50% of all LTC homes in Ontario have outbreaks and 2,200 workers there are sick, creating a desperate situation. I know you want to buy beer without a mask on, but try to grasp the bigger picture. It ain’t over. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++
But what is your point? Patients in LTC, and the staff, have all been triple vaxxed (if not 4 doses). Masks have been mandatory from the get-go, and also were required with flu outbreaks anyways. This will not change if restrictions are dropped for the general population.
BTW, an “outbreak” in Ontario w.r.t Covid is defined as 2 or more cases within a 14 day window at one facility. Not what many people associate with the term.
75 people dead in Ontario today. Worst daily toll yet. It ain’t over, even if you do not care. – Garth
Big deal, even when the BoC finally gets their head out of their backside and maybe gets to 1% overnight by 2023, even a outlandish catastrophic 50% price hair cut just brings us back a year or two.
Thing is then borrowing costs are correspondingly much higher so no more affordable either.
I guess the Feds really don’t care leaving this super dangerous bubble to ever inflate? No worries apparently to eventually bail out the CHMC & the Banks holding on to overpriced concrete boxes in the sky and pressboard sheds in Milton.
30 B
“One thing I realized is that today we have millennial power couples (MPC) where both hubby/wifey are making ~$100k+ each. IE: Nurse/Fire Fighter, Sales Rep/Dental Hygienist, Engineer/Coder, etc. It seems like there are a lot of them out there.”
———————
2 good incomes is/was not uncommon with Boomers,
and even more so with gen Xers.
Just thinking close by – HD mech/med tech (boomers),
acct/engineer (Xers), mgr/teacher(silent gen), dental
asst/forestor, telus tech/lawyer, acct/dr. (all boomers)
surveyor/police, muni worker/dr (tailend Xers).
FYI the lawyer, one acct and both drs are women. The boomer couples are either both retired, or one of them retired.
fraud and corruption and chase out the rogues
A new report by the a consumer watchdog Public Citizen analyzed data from Good Jobs First’s database on corporate misconduct – Violation Tracker – and found that 111 known U.S. Chamber member corporations have violated state and federal law at least 15,895 times. Since 2000, the group has racked up penalties of over $154 billion since 2000.
bailouts
Read Public Citizen’s full report.
Public Citizen’s analysis of data from Violation Tracker, which compiles enforcement data, found that:
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce fears law enforcement against corporate wrongdoers because its ranks are filled with corporate wrongdoers. After the FTC announced plans to pursue much more aggressive enforcement against law-breaking corporations, the Chamber claimed such action would amount to a “war against American businesses” and vowed to respond with every tool it has.
The 111 known U.S. Chamber member corporations have violated state and federal law at least 15,895 times and racked up penalties totaling over $154 billion since 2000. All of the known Chamber members (the Chamber does not disclose its members) have paid penalties for misdeeds.
The U.S. Chamber represents corporate criminals. Public Citizen identified 19 Chamber members that pleaded guilty to crimes at the parent or subsidiary level. An additional four are reportedly under criminal investigation.
The U.S. Chamber represents big banks that break the law. Three multinational megabanks account for more than half of the total amount paid in penalties by known Chamber members: JPMorgan Chase ($35 billion), Citigroup ($25 billion) and Wells Fargo ($21 billion).
The U.S. Chamber represents big tech monopolists. Amazon, Facebook and Google parent company Alphabet are all under investigation by federal and state authorities for antitrust violations. So far they have been penalized for misdeeds 130 times and paid nearly $6 billion in penalties.
The U.S. Chamber represents corporate polluters. The known Chamber members have paid more than $20 billion in penalties for over 2,600 environmental misdeeds. Oil and gas corporations like Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and Marathon Petroleum have recorded more than 1,600 violations totaling $8.9 billion in penalties.
The U.S. Chamber represents wage thieves. More than half of the known Chamber members have records of wage and hour violations, which collectively total 284 violations requiring payment of $119 million in penalties.
…..
The oil, gas, and coal industries, including Occidental Petroleum, Duke Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Chevron, are also prominent members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and have been frequent violators of state and federal laws.
Occidental Petroleum was fined the most out of any energy company, hit with penalties an estimated 235 times. The bulk of the fines came from a massive $5.15 billion settlement between a subsidiary and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency over the company’s attempts to evade its environmental cleanup liabilities by shifting troubled assets to a shell company.
Another notable example is Duke Energy, which has paid more than $2.8 billion in penalties since 2000, much of which are related to the massive 2014 coal ash spill in North Carolina.
Discover Which Corporations are the Biggest Regulatory Violators and Lawbreakers Throughout the United States
Violation Tracker is the first wide-ranging database on corporate misconduct. It covers banking, consumer protection, false claims, environmental, wage & hour, safety, discrimination, price-fixing, and other cases resolved by federal regulatory agencies and all parts of the Justice Department since 2000 — plus cases from state AGs and selected state regulatory agencies. In all: 502,000 civil and criminal cases from more than 300 agencies with penalties of $774 billion. We also cover selected types of class action lawsuits. Violation Tracker is produced by the Corporate Research Project of Good Jobs First.
https://www.citizen.org/article/us-chamber-penalties-violations-ftc-report/
Tiff is already hedging his bets on rate increases. Said this week that the scale of increases will be dictated by consumer spending:
““It’s clear that interest rates need to be on a rising path. The slope of that path is going to depend on economic developments, and if consumers spend more, the slope of that path will likely have to be steeper,” Mr. Macklem told the Senate’s standing committee on banking, trade and commerce on Wednesday.”
Not exactly a strong statement on rate increases. If the economy stumbles at all, I full expect the BOC to get cold feet.
#69 Cowtown Cowboy on 02.03.22 at 6:37 pm
As we often see, Toronto is home to the dumbest people on the planet.
—
Because they travelled there from Alberta last week?
5 to 10 year GIC rates will be 4% to 4.5% in the next 12 to 18 months, they are currently 2.8% to 3.0%. This means mortgage rates will be 5% to 5.25% in 12 months to 18 months. RBC economist on radio show this weekend said the Bank of Canada is hiking rates by 150 basis points or 1.50% percentage point in the next year or two meaning the Bank of Canada rate will be 1.75% by then.
I say he is being cautious, careful with his interest rates forecast, the Bank of Canada rate will have to be at least 2.5% when it is done.
Every so often or once in a blue moon or two, Garth drops a bombshell and/or surprise of sorts. On that note, would it surprise many if he suddenly announced in one of his daily blogs he’s throwing his hat in the ring for the vacant conservative-ship.
It would floor near every reader I’m sure. The cheers would be deafening around here to say the least.
Canada would eventually then have their own Churchhill to fight the looming economic malaise that lays ahead.
Or will it be Pet ro Poi le vre to the rescue. Doubt it. Doesn’t want it.
I went super bullish on RE 5 years ago, backed up the truck and bought more and not in Prince Albert.
The best thing one could do is to partner up on a shed with a legal suite. Maybe a couple family members.
A part ownership works but you would need to setup a legal binding contract with an out if one side wanted to bail down the road.
But if you can find the right deal and the best thing to do is never sell or move if you can help it. Moving costs are very high now and damaging to your long term financial plan.
Biggest mistake I made was sell a nice revenue piece now worth 8 mil…but found another.
#85 Nick on 02.03.22 at 7:22 pm
Just bought an investment property in Lower Brainland.
20% down approx 400k..
5 years from now it will be double approx $3.8M bought by some money launderers from abroad (blessings of our politicians).
Profit $1.9M tax free in 5 years.
Where else you get that type of return…oh, Bitcoin.
============================
Let see ya dump that kinda dough in bitcon with leverage and survive.
Un and down like a toilet seat. Bitcon doesn’t pay you to wait. RE is not a race and forecasting is a waste of time.
Luck!
Real estate in Canada will fall hard and most will think it would never happen, 25% cut in 2 years, 40% cut in 5 years, welcome to your destitute future real estate junkies.
26 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 02.03.22 at 4:50 pm
Okay dude. Who snowmobiles anymore? For fun. Cross country skiing?
Don’t know what stuff you’re into , but….
Actually, who wants to go up north Canada, in the winter, for fun?
Don’t worry. We’re staying away.
Give yur gerbils the ‘all’s clear’!
Og
What do they call people from Coutts, Alberta?
Cooties…
M47BC
@#62 Preapproved Ponzie’s Packing Party!
“For the average house in Canada, you can buy 3 in the States.
Time to move, boys.”
+++
I’ll help you pack….
So how does one actively make money in a housing market crash? Are there any sectors of the stock market that are negatively correlated with housing?
Looking forward to hearing about some opportunities!
The horns are getting louder, can you hear them yet? …Something about farmers, and a border crossing in Ontario.
“HONKHONKHONK! HONKHONKHONK! HONKHONKHONK! HONKHONKHONK! HONKHONKHONK! HONKHONKHONK!”
• Abusive, obscene or disrespectful commenters will not be published, and are subject to banning from this forum.
Why is this fool still around Garth? What a waist of skin.
#26 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 02.03.22 at 4:50 pm
“Stay away” is so right!
Don’t come up for here for cross-country skiing, or snowmobiling or ANYTHING!
Do you understand, all you selfish southern hillbillies with your slimy pathogens from Oakville?
Don’t put any more stress on our healthcare resources.
You are all parasites.
Stay.
Away.
Inflation?
What inflation?
Canadian Dairy Marketing board has allowed an 8.5% increase across the board for milk and its byproducts.
This is DOUBLE the largest ever increase allowed by the Board since its inception.
A 4 liter jug of milk in NS has risen almost 10%
Ont. 12% and western Canada 15%.
I guess this justifies the govt bureaucrats existence.
#66 Linvin’ in a van down by the river on 02.03.22 at 6:26 pm
I’m not an expert…
———
Did I need to read further?
#100 Crash and burn on 02.03.22 at 8:23 pm
So how does one actively make money in a housing market crash? Are there any sectors of the stock market that are negatively correlated with housing?
—
Discretionary spending will get axed in a housing downturn (i.e. how many trips to Home Depot will people be making when they can’t even afford their mortgage and HELOCs are toast?) HD lost 60% in the GFC in ’07-’08. It’s even more bloated now due to post COVID house horniness.
Would be pretty hard on the financial sector to the extent that mortgages are on the banks’ books. But, the banks make a ton of money and all have a solid dividend, so share price would have cushion.
Short Vanguard’s VCR if you really think it’s going to happen. Changes are high you will go broke waiting though.
#83 Reality Check
“Ultimately not many people will be forced to sell”
That won’t prevent a crash.
It’s just that the few who are forced to sell may not have anyone to sell to after the crash.
The speculators, and there is a high ratio of them in this bubble market, will rush for the exit, usually after they stayed in the market too long.
A day too late, is worse than a year too early.
The inventory will swell, and prices fall after the crash, not during the bubble.
ogdoad on 02.03.22 at 5:59 pm
Btw,
too bad about Penny Henny. I had a sig. other in high school named Henny. Super cute.
Oh well. Hurts so good, I guess.
Og
============================
Umm, oh my.
Penny Henny is a dude. Did you know?
So now, care to further a comment?
Friends just trying to help…
Cheers, r
#45 Shawn on 02.03.22 at 5:32 pm
Madness – What to Do
If you own a house in Toronto or Vancouver…
If retired, sell and move to Alberta or any rural place with far lower house prices.
If still working, consider if you can do the same and work from home in a cheaper area.
If you can’t move can you find a piece of cheap dirt and build a house of two or more on it. Can you add a residential unit to your existing house to rent or sell? Bull dozer guy IHCDT9, you can do this?
— ——
I’m gonna try. My place is on a 4 acre corner lot, but the province has some restrictions on it so I’ll have to put it in front of city council. It is all zoned residential though. You have to be granted a severance making 1 lot into two. If successful, I’ll build next door and sell the bunker complex. Then probably sell again upon retirement and move.
We haggled with my mortgage broker and he got me a 10 year fixed mortgage at 2.529% months ago and he got us our RRSP, TFSA in a 10 year GIC at 3.35%, compounded rate really works out to annually 3.902% GIC just this week. Instead of paying off all our $360,000 left on my mortgage we are actually going to make $48,000 total minimum more interest for paying our regular monthly mortgage payment instead of paying it all off. All fixed rates and all guaranteed.
Well, pretty much everything Trudeau has done to make houses “more affordable” has been to make borrowing money easier. That adds to the demand side, not supply. The supply side will have to come at the municipal level via zoning and the reduction of bureaucratic obstacles. However I don’t see that happening, the municipalities are happy with the sky high pricing.
If you look at somewhere like Calgary, which is restricted by developer cartels but development is not overly constrained by the city, you don’t see this craziness. There was the boom in 2006 due to the oil boom, but other than that the market has been much more normal. It’s still expensive, but a place to live can still be had for less than a doctor’s salary.
#100 Crash and burn on 02.03.22 at 8:23 pm
So how does one actively make money in a housing market crash? Are there any sectors of the stock market that are negatively correlated with housing?
Looking forward to hearing about some opportunities!
======================
Short REITs
Even Dr. Michael Berry missed on the timing 2008 so you don’t have a chance in hell.
I called it within 5 months 2008 in The US.
It ain’t happening here. You’ll get short squeezed and smoked into the ground. LOL
Credits fine still. Int rates still cheap. zero product ect ect
IT AINT HAPPENING.
Police are asking hospital workers along Toronto’s Hospital Row not to wear their regular uniforms or anything else that would identify them to work this weekend as a number of anti-vaccine truckers plan to hold a demonstration at Queen’s Park.
“Toronto police service suggests that street clothes are worn when coming to the hospital – not clothing which identifies you as a hospital worker,” a memo sent to hospital workers and obtained by CP24 states.
Police are also advising “out of an abundance of caution” that staff at hospitals including Women’s College, Mt. Sinai and Sick Kids avoid the downtown core this weekend if they are not working.
https://www.cp24.com/news/police-announce-plans-to-close-roads-as-tory-says-city-must-do-everything-it-can-to-prevent-repeat-of-ottawa-disruption-at-weekend-trucker-protest-1.5766200?cache=yes%3FclipId%3D263414%2F7.348508%2F7.327594%2F7.327594
Any truth to the rumour the newly-built convoyer shack has received 64 blind bids?
#85 Nick on 02.03.22 at 7:22 pm
Just bought an investment property in Lower Brainland.
20% down approx 400k..
5 years from now it will be double approx $3.8M bought by some money launderers from abroad (blessings of our politicians).
Profit $1.9M tax free in 5 years.
Where else you get that type of return…oh, Bitcoin.
================================
Buying and selling an investment property is subject to capital gains. What are you talking about ‘tax-free’?
91 Faron on 02.03.22 at 7:51 pm
#69 Cowtown Cowboy on 02.03.22 at 6:37 pm
As we often see, Toronto is home to the dumbest people on the planet.
—
Because they travelled there from Alberta last week?
Last I checked, Ottawa wasn’t Toronto ya twit
75 people dead in Ontario today. Worst daily toll yet. It ain’t over, even if you do not care. – Garth
+++++
Attacking the poster and sowing division…and all you do is say that “others” are dividing the nation…(eye-roll emoji)
#88
2 good incomes is/was not uncommon with Boomers,
and even more so with gen Xers.
Just thinking close by – HD mech/med tech (boomers),
acct/engineer (Xers), mgr/teacher(silent gen), dental
asst/forestor, telus tech/lawyer, acct/dr. (all boomers)
surveyor/police, muni worker/dr (tailend Xers).
——–
Indeed there are lots of high earning couples; we know
many who are u.proff/u.proff (pulling in 300K+ combined). However, owing to the rapid appreciation of housing prices in the past decade, spiked even further by T2 and his policies of uber-low rates and 54% marginals, they are usurped by a couple earning 80-100K per year combined who comes from rich parents who either donates them grandma’s house or 400K as a downpayment. We know families of both kinds on our street.
With this new reality, it depends more on who your parents are and your lineage than on what you have accomplished on your own…. an unfortunate fact in our U^*&^&^*^* up country.
#88 Dr V on 02.03.22 at 7:32 pm
30 B
“One thing I realized is that today we have millennial power couples (MPC) where both hubby/wifey are making ~$100k+ each. IE: Nurse/Fire Fighter, Sales Rep/Dental Hygienist, Engineer/Coder, etc. It seems like there are a lot of them out there.”
———————
2 good incomes is/was not uncommon with Boomers,
and even more so with gen Xers.
Just thinking close by – HD mech/med tech (boomers),
acct/engineer (Xers), mgr/teacher(silent gen), dental
asst/forestor, telus tech/lawyer, acct/dr. (all boomers)
surveyor/police, muni worker/dr (tailend Xers).
FYI the lawyer, one acct and both drs are women. The boomer couples are either both retired, or one of them retired.
————-
There’s quite a few “XPC’s” out there, and these folks got the best Canada has ever had on offer, or ever will. Timed just right to get life on the go as we crossed peak prosperity.
Buying houses just before prices started climbing and paying down the mortgage as rates went straight into the dumpster. A supercharged equity building machine. Education was still reasonable, immigration was still mild. Great politicians right up till 2015. The low mortgage payments allowed meaningful retirement savings, and a great standard of living. The age of the Internet had just blossomed, lots of good paying jobs from both old and new industries were available, and you didn’t need 3 degrees to get hired.
Now in 2022, there’s gotta be a ton of X’ers sitting on mortgage free houses worth 6-8X what they paid for them 20 years ago, and a stash destined for 7 figures to boot.
“Rates are going up. Rates are going up”.
No they aren’t going up soon in any meaningful way. The creep will be a decade away or more. You don’t understand markets or politics. Liberals Like Power. Rates won’t even effect the price of latte’s for most. Trudeau is not interested in balancing the economy. What has he done to give you that idea, seriously? Tiff is jawboning, Moms have plenty more to lend, taxes are no where near 100%. OFSI says 20% collapse? Nonsense. I see 20% more upside at least. Stop trying to get your name in the funny papers.
Move To Alberta!
West Texas Intermediate oil is at US $90. Western Canadian Select is at US $76. Volume is at a record despite the slow progress on pipelines. (Some pipeline capacity has been added in various ways)
Alberta Natural Gas is at Canadian $5.57 significantly higher than the dirt-cheap prices of the past decade.
In other words, money is sloshing all over the place in Alberta. The budget deficit is shrinking fast. Watch for big government spending soon as Kenney tries to restore at least some popularity.
House prices remain very affordable.
The job market is improving.
Oh yeah, and vaccine mandates soon to lifted (for good or bad, but if you like that…)
Come one, come all to Alberta.
Is it me or is it that every time some banker or some top dog economist mentions anything about a price drop the realtor marketing vultures start sending out articles about prices going up? Of course everyone is going to take advice from the car salesmen… Sorry I mean realtor.
Sure hope someone has not put their retirement funds into one stock – Facebook, now Meta.
Knew of a guy who had his entire retirement funds in Nortel. At the top he thought he should sell and his “financial advisor” told him to hold on to it since it was the best stock in Canada. He followed the advice and ended up riding it all the way down. Lost everything!
Toronto Police
@TorontoPolice
To clarify some commentary today, we would not direct healthcare staff on whether or not to wear uniforms.
Healthcare workers remain a priority for the Toronto Police and officers will be present around hospitals this weekend to ensure they feel safe going to and from work.
Observer you should stop watching CP24 also!
#115 Cowtown Cowboy on 02.03.22 at 9:47 pm
https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2022/01/27/truckers-and-supporters-gather-in-gta-for-freedom-convoy-to-ottawa/
Ya twit.
This is a blatant failure of public policy. It’s stunning. Especially coming six months after a federal election which, arguably, was about houses, houses & more houses. In that space of time the escalation has surpassed anything we saw in 2017 when politicians freaked and moved fast to corral the market. This time they’ve given up. Let ‘er rip. It’s an abdication the federal government has been allowed to get away with while we all fussed over omicron. Now, truckers. The consequences could be a disaster.
It is a blatant failure and blame needs to put on the Federal Government. It controls interest rates, CMHC regulations, buying mortgage-backed bonds from the banks and the FHSA tax shelter but Ontario’s Housing Affordability Task Force doesn’t blame the Federal Government.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/draft-report-housing-task-force-ontario-1.6324869
The Chairman of the Task Force, Jake Lawrence is also CEO of Scotiabank. I think he’s a pretty smart guy but somehow he missed the obvious answers: raise interest rates, tighten CMHC regulations, stop buying mortgage-backed bonds from the banks and cancel the FHSA tax shelter.
Number 121 Shawn “come to Alberta” vert funny we do
not have the ability to make a negative comment but
when it comes to Alberta we will let others enjoy Alberta.
DELETED
Everything is happening as intended. You will own nothing and be happy…or not
117 lurker / 118 IHCTD9
Thank you both for your comments.
Of those couples I listed, 1 has built new in the last 5 years (sold former house which was nearby), 1 moved into present house maybe 5 years ago, all others have been in their houses 15-35 years, of which 4 built new at the time.
So none of them have contributed to the current mania, and most even predated the mania of 2007ish. Yet we are often blamed by younger prospective purchasers for the current extreme prices. We had little if anything to
do with it, and I personally would not care if the market corrected 30%. I’d rather have a good selection of houses to choose from.
To IHCTD9’s observation, I too look at some of the Xers and marvel at how well they are (apparently) doing. But I do suspect some still have debt. The Mils were get their turn too.
Regardless, each generation should be richer than the previous in nominal terms. If $1M is enough to retire at 65 now, it will be closer to $2M in 10 years, and probably $3M in 25.
I have intentions. Fortunately, I survived them. But that stop me. I am out to win.
I was talking to my doctor. I wanted to change my meds to generic because I was getting pressure from my insurance company over the cost. She looks at me. So why we would will change a winning team? She is a hell of a gal. I listen to her.
On inflation:
30 % yearly inflation of houses, 10 % in the last month alone, 850 k 2 years ago is now 1.45 mil.
Skyrocketing prices of food and energy.
Real inflation/aka cost of living at 15 % +.
Rates at 0.25 %. And while lying that inflation is 5-6 %, we have this:
Tiff Macklem reiterated that interest rates would have to start going up this year to tackle inflation
Is this guy for real?
Rates should have been 10 % already.
All he does is saying how it should go up. To what level? Maybe to 1 % this year and 1.5 next. Big deal.
We are witnessing close to hyperinflation event, quick and irreversible destruction of currency without the proper increase in salaries, compensation of savers (punished by banks with fees instead of being paid interest) or benefits.
It is a coordinated theft by central banks and government through excessive credit and inflation.
It beats me what could be the pleasure of living in expensive house that your kids can not afford, while saving on food and energy, staying in the cold and eating cheap crap as you can’t afford real food.
And this is just starting.
Houses prices will not go down, on the contrary, will accelerate. As inflation rages, and it could be 20 % this year, nobody in their right might will sell.
And the idiot central bankers will keep ‘monitoring the situation’, ‘assuring Canadians that they have inflation under control and all the tools to fight it’ while doing practically nothing and the little they do adds fuel to the fire,
We will speak down the road but what unravels won’t be pretty, specially combined with the green/carbon policies.
And of course wages will be capped and stagnant.
Severe inflationary depression and stagflation for decades to come.
Every excuse to keep rates lower and continue the inflation insanity will be used.
And of course, the hungry herd/livestock would have to be controlled, it would be interesting to see what the elite and their sheppards will do in that regard in order to keep things under control. More freedom being the least unlikely policy.
According to my 1983 Casio watch/calculator, every man woman and child in the USA has ~$99,000.00 in debt.
#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.22 at 6:17 pm
Funny stats:
For the average house in Canada, you can buy 3 in the States.
Time to move, boys.
——–
Or more. In Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota… outdoor paradise awaits for a pittance, although you may also want to arrange a few months of snowbirding for those cold times. But don’t worry: if you sell a crappy Toronto or Van lean-to, you’ll have ample cash to cover everything.
#108 IHTCD9
I’m gonna try. My place is on a 4 acre corner lot, but the province has some restrictions on it so I’ll have to put it in front of city council. It is all zoned residential though. You have to be granted a severance making 1 lot into two. If successful, I’ll build next door and sell the bunker complex. Then probably sell again upon retirement and move.
——————
Restrictions on what to do with your property?
Buddy, we can’t have that.
This is an infriction on your freedoms protected by the Charter.
Time to call up your buddies and fire up the dozers.
And off to Ottawa you go.
96 Paula on 02.03.22 at 8:12 pm
Real estate in Canada will fall hard and most will think it would never happen, 25% cut in 2 years, 40% cut in 5 years, welcome to your destitute future real estate junkies.
————————–
Whats the catalysts? Pease do explain.
I know all the risks as I’ve make alot in RE and know a thing or 2.
Talking a 40% haircut would kill the economy and likely bring in a depression.
There needs to be panic selling for reasons.
Like maybe a pandemic? Did work out.
Only a depression would trigger a collpase and if that happens the stock market gets liquidated first.
The only peeps wishing for a wipeout are those that aint in RE.
Theres not enough housing now. They can turnup immigration and that wont help.
Houses are full of renters and owners and as Garth says….. NO RECESSION..
So please do tell how it crashes?
Read the Big Short and learn something.
#44 Dr V on 02.03.22 at 5:32 pm
Penny Henny BANNED??
That’s disappointing. I thought they gave 3 pretty good
ETF recommendations the other day.
Sigh……
///////////////////
Only the good die young.
Echo chamber (((((Echo chamber))))
Just for fun my Asian based nomad son has been buying digital land in a digital space, the Sandbox. Yes it doesn’t exist, yes it cost him real American dollars to purchase his lot but his non-existent self (Avatars) can build whatever we want on it, rent it out to tenant avatars who will pay him rent in real American dollars. Our new non-real neighbors are Warner Brothers so he fancies building a supplementary restaurant hub where other Avatar owners will pay him in real American dollars for their digital toys to enter and eat there. Our digital neighborhood is on the up! You have to laugh.
I would not have believed any of this last year even. So Canadian RE is not the only crazy thing in our post-covid world. Have you tried the new digital horse racing games mania? Great fun, especially if you own the non-existent horses so earn winners money. There is a massive wall of money in Asia for pay for digital play and owning such assets if you can call them that. Son says that when he lived in Japan and Korea he noted that digital games are an ordinary adult bloke thing. They don’t go down the pub as we do on a Sunday, adult males go and play digital games and spend and gamble big money. Yet again as I have told you lot 1000 times, getting out of Canada and traveling can pay off.
Govt here in Britain are concerned that Covid has driven up house prices here by 10.6% in the last year. Another good laugh.
They sure are making a STINK over there in Ottawa aren’t they?
It’s all fun and games until someone gets hurt!
– Too many buyers chasing too few houses. Client is accepting offers on Monday. 20, yes 20 , bully offers have been declined. Monday should be epic for them. First time buyers will need extraordinary incomes or help from Parents, otherwise impossible. Working and middle are shut out and will never own in 416 at these prices.
Toronto Garden Suites – I wonder if new builds or extensive Reno’s will come to include these. Too bad for NIMBY’S because it’s as of right. One day backyards with just grass and trees could be all filled in with tiny houses .
Inflation – everywhere, sold my 03 Harley in one day last Saturday. Middle of winter buyer came with cash and a trailer. One down , one to go. I thought selling a bike in winter would be difficult.
#107 Russ on 02.03.22 at 9:24 pm
Umm, oh my.
Penny Henny is a dude. Did you know?
So now, care to further a comment?
Friends just trying to help…
Cheers, r
———————————-
I had a sig. other in high school named Henny. How’d ya infer it was a girl? How’d ya infer I was male?
Sexist much?
Og
All the thinking in the last dozen years about kicking the can of fiscal responsibility further and further down the road, leading to consequences far worse than any seen in the great recession, turns out today to be more an illusion than anything real.
Greed inspired by governments, the banks and people of all stripes in general floating in a bubble of illusion.
Keep on kicking that can down the road.
It used to be about how much it will affect us all later. Now its all about how it will never come to any consequence that will ever affect us. That’s just fantasy now … The new and adjusted reality we’ve grown so accustomed to. Just keep kicking that can down the road and any and all negative fallout that could ever come of it will magically dissolve is all there is to it now.
So the realities of the consequences for our actions at all levels of society have become fantasies as we are mindlessly drawn down the road toward today’s radical woke destruction.
Fixing the mess that’s been created out of unprecedented societal greed would require some real pain. No fantasy or illusion about it.
First…interest rates would have to be set above the fixed rate of inflation.
Then… by fixing the skewed fixed rate of inflation eventually converting to the real rate of inflation and keeping interest rates just above that until inflation levels out to the optimum 2 percent range with rates holding steady at 1 point above that.
Fact is, its much too late for the only nation rescuing measures that would rescue the country from economic destruction anyway. Too far gone. They won’t happen.
The reality turned to fantasy will turn back to reality again.
#9 B on 02.03.22 at 4:21 pm
The $1M dollar dream!
It costs about $5000 a month of after tax dollars to mortgage $1M @ 3%. Add another $1000 a month for property taxes, maintenance & other misc. stuff.
$6000 to own vs. $2500-$3000 to rent.
It just doesn’t make sense to buy unless you plan on flipping the place before the tides turn.
—————————————
Ummmm ya dream on dude. You may get the basement for $3000 per month.
And this blog (all of us) was shocked at 2009 prices. Wonder what ever happened to that 20 percent correction followed by a 10 year melt forecasted years ago when houses sold for a fraction of what they cost today.
Lenders at all levels that bankroll this insanity are 100 percent to blame. Take the cocaine away and all of this ends immediately, but good luck with that. Canada has nothing else going except rampant speculation and pot growers. Such a productive and innovative country.
Millions of American dollars flooded into Canada attacking both fair elections and funding anti energy campaigns. Now Go Fund Me has to confiscate money going to truckers?
The CBC say “overseas money,” is involved. Hey CBC I’m on vacation overseas but as a Canadian have an internet connection and made a donation. Are the leftists banning me?
The CBC reported in June 2019 that millions in American money was flowing in Canada but they never accused the American donors as terrorists.
How the hell can Mayor Watson say “Get out of town and we’ll give you you’re money”? What does Watson know?
Go Fund me is being hauled up on charges in the US over this. Why is out government trying to starve out legal protest, especially when we know Trudeau funds radical protestors here. Isn’t this ban very wrong in the eyes of every Canadian?
@#102 easily manipulated
“What a waist of skin.”
+++
Before I point out that your comment was abusive obscene , and disrespectful for all snowflakes everywhere that lack a sense of humor….
I would like to ask.
Was that a large waist of wasted skin?
:)-
@#116 Over the Peak
“Attacking the poster and sowing division…”
+++
Is that what we’re calling a rebuttal to your comment that is factual?
(eye roll emoji)
@#113 Sail Away
“Any truth to the rumour the newly-built convoyer shack has received 64 blind bids?”
++++
Careful.
In our WOKE country.
Blind people everywhere could file a class action suit for your derogatory, visionist slur to visually impaired people everywhere.
( I’ve always found the term “visually impaired” a slur on blind drunks…but that’s another topic for another day)
So many WOKE terms to fix.
Which raises the question.
Can a blind person view a property?
Can a blind realtor show a property?
Or do they just go directly to a blind bid?
What’s next for this occupied nation? What will the Globalist-led regime cook up?
We have a family political Dy-nasty running the show. Gunning to introduce (again) some type of War Measures Act/military on the streets. (Well we ARE in global WW3 – as of March 2020).
This time, in Ottawa.
(Would you expect anything less from a city whose logo is three sixes https://tinyurl.com/3w2twwdn ?)
— The only ‘opposition’ is likely to be a new hard-right populist Con leader installed, soon.
— Those Voluntary (wink wink) Isolation sites/camps are being built at a frenzied pace in each Province. Who’s ready for a stay? If you think this will be ‘over’ any time soon…
I am told that police departments, the country over, are on full alert for this weekend’s protests, all hands on deck and all leave requests denied.
Expect more street battles during this WW3.
—
— We shall have one of the the best climates in the world! The Queen’s banker Blog Dog Carney – and the Big 6 Banks – are all about ‘Climate measures’. Nothing more. Combined with more taxes that will give us a world-class climate.
Hey Garth,
GTA millenial over here. More and more of my nesting peers are moving to the east coast. They have given up on Ontario. Even London, Windsor, etc have ridiculous prices. Apparently in Halifax my peers are known as “Onterribles” because due to this flood of home buyers, even house prices out east seem to be inflating. My peers are making choices to leave their friends and extended families behind, so they can provide a better lifestyle for their children. Rent in Ontario is not as ridiculous as buying, but even rent here is becoming unaffordable for a lot of people. I hope your predictions materialize sooner than later.
#85 Nick on 02.03.22 at 7:22 pm
Just bought an investment property in Lower Brainland.
20% down approx 400k..
5 years from now it will be double approx $3.8M bought by some money launderers from abroad (blessings of our politicians).
Profit $1.9M tax free in 5 years.
Where else you get that type of return…oh, Bitcoin.
===========================================
Hey Nick…if you’re going to make that much from this one property, why didn’t you buy two properties?
Come on Nick….your crystal ball tells you you’ll be making 1.9 mil in 5 years…..lets go for 3.8 mil, or 5.7 mil, or 10.83 mil. Come on Nick grow some balls and buy more!
Moving closer toward a full UBI. Kanadian Kommunism.
They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.
Cradle to grave.
Just Turn on, Tune in and Drop out.
Why do you think that new condo construction never got shut down? Those endless towers will become our subsidised or State-owned housing Blocks.
Comrades everything old is new again.
Equality = all in poverty. Excepting the elites and Party Faithful.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8591644/ontario-portable-health-benefits-workers/
Ontario intends to develop a “portable benefits” system for workers who don’t have health, dental or vision coverage, with the package intended to move with the individuals if they change jobs.
The concept was recommended in a recent report from an expert committee tasked by the government with addressing labour disruptions from the pandemic. It’s intended to cover workers in the gig economy, retail and hospitality jobs who don’t have benefits, and accommodate people who may change careers throughout their lives.
At least OPS is not describing the downtown Ottawa occupation as a “peaceful protest” anymore. Ottawa police on twitter:
@ottawapolice
continues to work national security agencies, the
@RCMP
, the
@OPP
and other police agencies. We’re also working with all three levels of government to affect a safe, timely and lawful end to this unlawful and unacceptably dangerous demonstration.
#135 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.04.22 at 1:52 am
96 Paula on 02.03.22 at 8:12 pm
Real estate in Canada will fall hard and most will think it would never happen, 25% cut in 2 years, 40% cut in 5 years, welcome to your destitute future real estate junkies.
————————–
Whats the catalysts? Pease do explain.
I know all the risks as I’ve make alot in RE and know a thing or 2.
Talking a 40% haircut would kill the economy and likely bring in a depression.
There needs to be panic selling for reasons.
Like maybe a pandemic? Did work out.
Only a depression would trigger a collpase and if that happens the stock market gets liquidated first.
The only peeps wishing for a wipeout are those that aint in RE.
Theres not enough housing now. They can turnup immigration and that wont help.
Houses are full of renters and owners and as Garth says….. NO RECESSION..
So please do tell how it crashes?
Read the Big Short and learn something.
************
Worried?
What did you learn from the big short…perhaps that any downturn overshoots what the expert realtors or banks forecast. Inflation is a new variable…have you factored that in. Things change and 10-12 years is not a lifetime but a short term trend…buy more real estate…it worked for you before.
Re #146
Garth, please remove this disgusting ableist comment.
Thank you.
The tale of the 2 economies:
US – 500 k job gains, Canada – 200 k jobs lost
US – salaries increase, hot job market, Canada – salaries capped, no increase.
USD – strong, loonie – weak
US – capital investments, Canada – capital flight
All that despite the spike in Commodity prices!
House prices in GTA 4 times higher than those in Chicago.
Mississauga as expensive as Manhattan.
I am rent which a beautiful place, walk to work… until a Mil couple moved in above me, with two toddlers.
They live in the only place in this rental building with no carpeting. No consideration, even after the kids are in bed they bang and slam windows. Both parents don’t work other than the odd acting gig, home all day. Home school the kids, don’t believe in vaccination and besties with the building manager… nothing happened after my complaints… why? because they can tack on another $600-$700 bucks in renting this place to new people.
I’ve lived here 15+ years, so now it is time to move… but WHOA!! looking everywhere in greater Vancouver, a one bedroom is at lowest $1700 for a dumpy old musty small suite, a nice one but small is $2500 plus.
I make a “living wage” work at the hospital supporting 4 red zone Covid units, I love my job and the people I support…but higher rent, hydro, internet, groceries and my monthly ‘living wage’ is gone. $3000/month is my take home which use to be a ton.
I get renting is great, but there are the down sides… this inflation, housing stuff is effecting everyone, even renters. Bad neighbors, waking up at 4am to kids screaming is the norm, society has changed. I always considered my neighbors, but most DT people just don’t care. As for the cheap rent, complaints get ignored because the landlords can get more money for your rental. Why keep the lower-priced renters happy?
I get a stomach ache just thinking about it. :(
#150 TN
Ontario intends to develop a “portable benefits” system for workers who don’t have health, dental or vision coverage, with the package intended to move with the individuals if they change jobs.
The concept was recommended in a recent report from an expert committee tasked by the government with addressing labour disruptions from the pandemic. It’s intended to cover workers in the gig economy, retail and hospitality jobs who don’t have benefits, and accommodate people who may change careers throughout their lives
——————————
“Portable jobs”= “Portable economy” = “Portable benefits”.
Sign of the times.
So NOW I support those truckers.
Why?
We are Fully vaxed, take a 4 day trip to Birch Bay in our private car. Had contact with 3 people sis, bro in-law and niece.
Wife and I do a 2 PCRs cost $300 pass them down there.
Cross back to Kanada (now a authoritarian regime that’s to Trudeau the admiration of communism) and get randomly selected for another PCR test. Done and sent and then receive an email to STAY HOME 14 days or until you receive a second test of negative result.
Why? Double vaxed zero symptom’s, had contact with near zero people
Wasn’t on a bus a plane whatever. My bro in-law is a denturist and very careful but also has been on numerous holidays with ZERO issues in the USA.
So why the hell would a trucker want or need a shot or 3? It means absolutely shit. They still can get lockdown and they NEED to roll and supply all us goons and pay their bills. So they don’t fill up the hospital and die?
Tell me why? Why can my family do what they want in the US with WAY less bullshit.
Theirs no logic in any of this and the real problem is our loser leader…you know the guy that hides whenever their any critical questions. That’s why he shut down parliament when we really needed answers and leadership.
That’s why they kicked the plug out of the wall when being questioned by Pierre Poilievre.
BTW my cousins and a buddy got covid bad and their vaxed.
Its a good thing I don’t need a pay cheque to survive.
I’m going to my other residence. They can pack it on the quarantine.
Sorry. I forgot it’s all about you and your inconvenience. BTW, 167 more citizens died of Covid in the last 24 hours. – Garth
I say let this bubble blow up in classic tulip bulb style. It’s clear the gov and BoC are scared to death.
#151 Observer on 02.04.22 at 10:36 am
Not believing it until I see pepper spray and arrests in which they take the perp far away and drop them in the wilds to walk home.
#51 Not Pierre on 02.03.22 at 5:44 pm
Pierre Pollievre does not, and can not appeal to most Canadians. If he becomes leader we can expect another Conservative loss at the polls.
The Liberals are looking more and more like the only viable centrist option.
=================
Your a liberal fool. Is his logic and ethic to pointed for you?
Its obvious a lot of Canadian’s are clueless.
Were near last in all columns of the developed countries.
You know GDP, health care ect ect
#3 dennis on 02.03.22 at 4:12 pm
Love this guy. I know we will be seeing him around a lot more upcoming. Poilievre is going to rock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mapxta3nKcA
===================================
Thanks for that LOL that’s it in a nut shell.
I contacted him for my full support including monetarily..
#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.22 at 7:38 am
@#102 easily manipulated
“What a waist of skin.”
+++
Before I point out that your comment was abusive obscene , and disrespectful for all snowflakes everywhere that lack a sense of humor….
I would like to ask.
Was that a large waist of wasted skin?
:)-
===================
A broken record waist of skin.
Get some new MAT
#33 ‘og’ – thanks for the smile. However in response to your post I list the following: 1) most new builds these days have about as much lawn as a plate garnished with parsley in a fancy restaurant. A pair of scissors could be used to cut it. Alternatively lawns are so old school that new landscaping techniques result in no need to cut a lawn whatsoever – it is all garden; 2) insects are everywhere. Never read ‘The Secret House’ by David Bodenais if you are someone who gets antsy about bugs or germs! Also, wipe counters, wash dishes, put food away & vacuum once in a while. Funny how that keeps insect infestations to a minimum; 3) Nasty neighbors are everywhere. At least in a house you have some space, even if it is only 13″ away:)
#65 ‘Kurt’ – I get you are responding to the crazed cottager, but keep in mind that cities are in general dependent on the rural areas for food. It takes a LOT of land to feed literal millions, especially when those millions are mostly omnivores. Even if all those urban types converted their lawns to garden space for food we’d still need farmers. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
@#154 Summertime on 02.04.22 at 10:46 am
The tale of the 2 economies:
US – 500 k job gains, Canada – 200 k jobs lost
US – salaries increase, hot job market, Canada – salaries capped, no increase.
USD – strong, loonie – weak
US – capital investments, Canada – capital flight
All that despite the spike in Commodity prices!
House prices in GTA 4 times higher than those in Chicago.
Mississauga as expensive as Manhattan.
–
Biden doing a great job.
A huge thanks to Bronze Bullet and TurnerNation.
Can the number comments by one person be limited? I’m tired or scrolling past Faron’s posts.
#164 Brevity is the Soul of Wit
You and me both.
Stats Can update;
Canada lost 200,000 jobs in Jan.
Some or all due to Covid closures?
#164 Brevity is the Soul of Wit on 02.04.22 at 12:22 pm
A huge thanks to Bronze Bullet and TurnerNation
=======================================
Brevity? Kind of ironic isn’t it, when TurnerNation is the most wordy and repetitive poster here.
#157 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.04.22 at 11:27 am
Sorry. I forgot it’s all about you and your inconvenience. BTW, 167 more citizens died of Covid in the last 24 hours. – Garth
Its beyond that. Taking the most expensive tests that are both negative for one. If one was positive it would certainly raise the question and likely trigger more testing.
So we were in contact with 3 peeps in 3 weeks.
So now I need to attend one of my properties for an important maintenance check….65 tenants there.
Where as I don’t need to be in contact with any of them and I have my own residence.
Ya it a major inconvenience and all unnecessary.
So how effective is the Vax….it ain’t.
If it was so very effective we would have better results and you wouldn’t be able to use the death count as guilt? You might as well blame all the vaccinated as well.
My logics OK. I pose no threat going to my property in my vehicle to work on my equipment.
Hope that helps.
Another ‘brilliant’ central banker:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60206564
Workers should not ask for big pay rises, to try and stop prices rising out of control, the Bank of England governor has told the BBC.
Yep, apparently salary increase are the reason for the roaring inflation and not the central banks uncontrolled money printing.
@#160 All lies and manipulated u decide on 02.04.22 at 11:49 am
#3 dennis on 02.03.22 at 4:12 pm
Love this guy. I know we will be seeing him around a lot more upcoming. Poilievre is going to rock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mapxta3nKcA
===================================
Thanks for that LOL that’s it in a nut shell.
I contacted him for my full support including monetarily..
–
a fool and his money are soon parted.
#157 All lies and manipulated u decide
“Wife and I do a 2 PCRs cost $300 pass them down there.”
—————————
My PCR test in WA state was free in November. Don’t go to Walgreens. Results (negative…yay) were emailed from Seattle lab, and I met the 72-hour return deadline.
You simply have to do some research and look around, enquire.
The worst part was the ArriveCAN app, which bombed on Question 14. Even the border guard admitted they had “had a lot of complaints about it”.
I’m guessing the Phoenix payroll system people created it for T2.
Back to the Nany state Garth.
People can still drink and drive and they do and there are all sorts on repercussion’s for doing so.
I think I can use my own discretion as an adult….but now not treated as one.
1 wine? 2 or none.
More rules means more pissed off people.
My Bro-inlaw in the US runs the dental office and going to Mexico AGAIN.
Been home a week Id be sick by now. 14 days REALLY?
#162 Linda on 02.04.22 at 12:06 pm
– thanks for the smile.
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Hey, emotion! Maybe we’re not doomed after all. :)
Og
P.S. There are people in my neighborhood who treat their piece of parsley as if its only thing protecting them from the second coming.
#163 KLNR
House prices in GTA 4 times higher than those in Chicago
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Did you see the crime rates in Capone’s hometown?
Blind Bids on houses?
Remember when bids were open and you knew what others were offering? Well I don’t! When I bought in 1989, 1990 and 1995 I had to bid “blind”
The difference was credit was not so easy to get, there was lots of supply. Buyers were not crazy. People remembered that house prices could go down (Alberta circa 1980 National Energy Program. The whole country in recession circa 1990.) The market was relatively balanced.
If bidding today is blind, that’s not new. What seems to be new in the bidding process is bids accepted only on one day and the idea of asking the top 3 or whatever to up their bids. What is also different is a lot more use of offering prices that are intentionally vastly low so that people have no idea what to bid. There must be a better word /term for today’s system than blind bidding?
@#161 easily manipulated
“A broken record waist of skin.
Get some new MAT”
+++
Why , when I have so much to work with?
:)
DELETED
Britain has raised the Bank rate by 0.5%
Now this….
https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-start-rate-hikes-with-bang-not-likely-2022-02-04/
The Tiff-ster has been coming out almost weekly with warnings that the Bank of Canuckda will be raising rates…
Garth, any chance the gastropods in Ottawa will hammer us with a 0.5 % raise in March?
#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.22 at 1:10 pm
@#161 easily manipulated
“A broken record waist of skin.
Get some new MAT”
+++
Why , when I have so much to work with?
:)
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Ok standing by……..
#155 Beth on 02.04.22 at 10:47 am
Hi Beth,
I know the solution to the problem of inconsiderate neighbors above you, as I have lived under similar circumstances.
Step 1 – Talk to said neighbor, discuss exactly what the problems are and attempt to arrive at a fair solution.
Step 2 – Do the exact same thing with the management of your building. (start and maintain a paper trail)
Step 3 – If it continues, attempt to contact all local authorities (landlord tenant board etc.) and , once again, start and maintain a paper trail.
In BC you have a right to 24 hour peaceful enjoyment of your living space.
Step 4 – Allow a reasonable amount of time to elapse in order to see if conditions improve. (1 or 2 months)
Step 5 – Let them know one more time if conditions have not improved.
Step 6 – Allow another reasonable amount of time to elapse.
If it continues unabated move on to Step 7. (Absolute last resort)
Step 7 – Find out when they sleep.
Purchase an Indian rubber ball.
Choose unpredictable intervals during their known sleeping window to bounce your rubber ball on your ceiling/their floor.(No more than ten times)
Step 8 – Do not answer your door and deny til you die.
This method generally quiets inconsiderate neighbors down, though it may be more difficult with neighbors who are unemployed or under employed, as they have nothing but time to figure out how to retaliate.
It is always better to make an inconsiderate neighbor move than to move yourself. How else will they learn.
(Disclaimer: I do not endorse or recommend the above method, it is strictly for educational purposes)
I see Bill C-10 is enacted here!
Inflation will continue for the next 2 years. House prices will move sideways.
When the inflation problem starts getting out of hand, BoC will get serious. They do have the tools and will use them.
That’s when the floor will drop by around 25%.
We have seen this movie before 1976-1982.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/remember-when-what-have-we-learned-from-80s-interest-rates/article24398735/
Just an FYI.
$1.45 M, @ 29% annual increase, means that just one year more than a typical 25-year mortgage, the average home price will be $1,088,179,324.50. At the moment there are 56 Canadian companies with market cap $1B or more.
Real Estate agents have not really helped themselves at all by pushing up the price so much as there are far fewer houses for sale and, even though those that do sell create a tidy commission for the lucky agents, there are far fewer than normal that do sell so far fewer agents make any money! Bad all around….with just a few winners!
The hard truth is coming. We are in a global debt bubble that WILL unwind in a nasty and uncontrolled implosion. China first then the world.
I would not touch any inflated asset right now.
#185 BROCK on 02.04.22 at 4:36 pm
hehe,
how do you make a digital laughing sound like you need to sleep after??
#180 alf on 02.04.22 at 1:59 pm
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Thank you Alf!! I’m totally on Step 7 and I got a rubber ball too…migrating to the sleeping room tonight at shortly after midnight… LOL :D xo
#187 Beth
Happy to help.
#133 Sail Away on 02.04.22 at 1:23 am
#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.22 at 6:17 pm
Funny stats:
For the average house in Canada, you can buy 3 in the States.
Time to move, boys.
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Or more. In Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota… outdoor paradise awaits for a pittance, although you may also want to arrange a few months of snowbirding for those cold times. But don’t worry: if you sell a crappy Toronto or Van lean-to, you’ll have ample cash to cover everything.
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I’ve been half-heartedly checking out some pretty nice spots down here within lazy walking distance to the beach all for under 100K.
Just imagine selling that GTA/VAN 1m crack shack and buying the entire condo building here instead.
Live in 1 or 2 and rent out the rest
20% drop? Whoa.
In the US what happened in 2008, owners simply walked away from their negative equity…Who was left holding the bag? The Banks, that’s who.
2008 was a very icy situation, like we now have.