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By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Are you having fun yet? When I said in our outlook blog post that the equity markets would be more volatile this year, I didn’t expect it to come in the first few weeks of January. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is down 9% and the hard-hit Nasdaq is down 15%, while the TSX is down a gentler 3%. What gives?
Well as I predicted, higher interest rates and tighter monetary policies from key central banks would likely trigger these short-term bouts of volatility as the equity markets recalibrate to these tighter policies. The days of easy money from central banks are over and markets are adjusting accordingly.
Indeed, since December the US 10-year treasury yield has surged from 1.4% to 1.8%. And this week we saw the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) set the stage to start hiking rates at the next meetings in March.
Bond Yields Surge Higher
Source: Stockcharts, Turner Investments
I actually think the BoC made a mistake by not hiking this week as they clearly have to with inflation at a 30-year high. Additionally, the markets had largely priced in a hike so when markets give you a pass or ‘green light’ you take it. But nonetheless, rates are going up, which has led to this recent market volatility and pullback. And based on decades of market history, this is exactly what we should expect.
Below is a chart that shows the average performance of the S&P 500 around past Fed tightening cycles. I calculated the average 1, 3, 6 and 12 month performance following the start of these cycles going back to 1980.
Note how the S&P 500 typically declines in the first month and quarter following the beginning of the rate tightening. But critically, the S&P 500 then recovers and is up on average 2.5% six months following and up 5.9% one year later. In fact, in only one of the seven tightening cycles was the S&P 500 down 12 months following the start of the Fed hiking and it was down just 1.3% (1984 cycle).
So, equity markets quickly re-align to the higher interest rates and tighter monetary policies but then rally as the economy keeps growing and corporate profits keep rising. That’s the key point. This is normal, and remember that the central banks are hiking rates because the economy is doing better, which is supportive of corporate profits and stock prices.
S&P 500 Average Performance Following Fed Rate Hikes
Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Moreover, market volatility is normal! Nothing goes straight up. The markets need to pullback from time to time to digest gains, ensure markets don’t overheat too quickly, and to recharge ‘internal energy’ to steel a phrase from my old pal and colleague Jeff Saut.
Let’s review some important market facts:
- First, on average the S&P 500 experiences three 5% pullbacks and one 10% correction per year. Currently, the S&P 500 is in official correction mode (down more than 10% from the peak) but this is nothing out of the ordinary.
- Second, take a look at the chart below. While it’s a busy chart it provides a lot of info and insight. The chart shows the annual return for the S&P 500 (in blue) and the largest intra-year decline (red diamonds) for each year going back to 1980. For example, in 2020 the S&P 500 had an intra-year or peak-to-trough decline of 35% (that was one for the books) yet managed to return 16% on the year. So this shows that it’s common to see large declines but then still experience positive returns on the year. The other key takeaway from this chart is the average selloff for the S&P 500 in any given year is 15%, yet with an average annual return of over 10%.
- Finally, bear markets, defined as a greater than 20% market drop, are mainly (70%) driven by economic recessions, which we do not see in the cards for 2022. So while this correction has been unpleasant we don’t see it spiraling into a bear market.
I subscribe to Winston Churchill’s belief that “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”, which is why I’ve always studied and leaned on market history in making my calls and recommendations over the years. It’s not infallible of course, but based on market history, combined with our views that the global economy will continue to recover and grow this year, we remain optimistic that markets will grind higher throughout year. But as we’ve stated clearly in recent posts here, it’s going to be a bumpier ride so buckle up.
S&P 500 Annual Returns with Intra-Year Selloffs
111 comments ↓
Speaking of rising interest rates, at what minimum spread, does a margin loan stop making sense? My uneducated brain says 5%.
Time for the steerage section to rip me apart for playing with margin…
My wife asked me if I wanted to have sex.
After looking at that bottom chart, I said not now honey I’ve got a headache…
M47BC
Thank you Ryan,
That explains a us portion of a balanced portfolio and no questions we know what to do with the US component (assuming investment in total us market or s&p500 without tilting on growth vs value small cap overweight etc…)
Would the same logic apply to Canadian, international developed and emerging market equities?
What is their history and impacts on aggregate (knowing that individual countries control their rates and newer establishment of European Union and that central bank instead of individual countries etc.)
For example if us raises rates dollar appreciates isn’t that bad for emg markets?
Thanks
Great post, Ryan. Thanks.
How will markets perform if Russia decides to act? What have we learned from history in this respect?
I think we are in for a wild ride this year. Not only financially but also socially. Hopefully the surprises are limited but I will not hold my breath.
Very lucky that I can view from my armchair without threat.
#2 Flop… on 01.29.22 at 10:53 am
Dood! To put this in financial terms for the sake of this blog: What the hell are you thinkin’, man?
Og
The only possible path to continuing economic contravention would be introduction of multi-generational mortgages. Unfortunately, I can also see our dear Photo-op Minister announcing that this will magically make houses more affordable…*facepalm*
Thanks Ryan. As markets are forward looking, how long before we should start recalibrating the fixed income portion of our portfolio to reflect a neutral / stable interest rate environment?
Some very safe ETFs are having a great start to the year.
ZEB up 4.6%
XEI up 3.7%
VDY up 5.0%
Good sir,
I appreciate you providing lifting news in times of decline. It is both caring and informative; your intentions are good and your words of encouragement to the “hold the line” are backed by good historical data providing sensible reasons to not panic as it usually works out well.
Thank you for digging up this info and more so for sharing it with your readers at no cost. Much obliged.
That’s us in the pic, Ryan – coming to CRASH THE PARTY!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd5ZLJWQmss
Ryan, I really enjoy and look forward your analysis week in and week out – the way that you state your position and then clearly articulate the reasoning with historical trends is very persuasive.
And couldn’t agree more, the market had baked in a BoC rate hike, why they’d want to surprise by standing pat is beyond me.
Stock Market is in a historic bubble. Listen to Grantham, one of the the best investors who predicted the 2000 bubble and 2008 bubble and other insiders who have liquidated their stock holdings.
Ha! Good pic choice Ryan :)
“which is why I’ve always studied and leaned on market history in making my calls and recommendations over the years.”
No sure if at the present time you can extrapolate anything useful from history that would apply at present.
When was the last time that full employment, fast climbing inflation and the bank rate at .25 existed simultaneously?
Uncharted territory.
1st Tiff, then Jay, removed any hope of any of the world’s markets finishing in the black this year.
Obviously there is no strength on either side of the border moving forward from the moment either of them spoke.
We are living in an era of ‘once in a hundred year’ events occurring frequently.
And magic recoveries isn’t one of them!
8 Penny
“Some very safe ETFs are having a great start to the year.”
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Indeed. The big Canadian dividend payors have fared well.
I note that many of these ETFs claim to be “index” funds
– DJ, NASDAQ etc. I equate this more to what i consider
to be “rule based” investing, as the indexes can have
strict performance and/or cap requirements. Often
slants toward the banks, with energy and utilities
making up smaller chunks.
Regardless, if cdn divvies are the goal, they do the trick.
“But nonetheless, rates are going up”
The ECB has not raised rates in the face of 5% inflation. Instead, they ended one money printing program and increased the volume of another money printing program to compensate.
The Fed continues to print money. They have not raised rates once, despite official inflation being even worse in the U.S.
The Bank of Canada has not raised rates once, despite inflation running above its 1% to 3% target band for the better part of a year.
Come the spring economic growth is likely to be slow. That will be the excuse to do nothing yet again.
It’s institutional failure. Prioritizing portfolios over people, speculators over workers.
Stealth “Thank you Ryan, That explains a us portion of a balanced portfolio and no questions we know what to do with the US component (assuming investment in total us market or s&p500 without tilting on growth vs value small cap overweight etc…) Would the same logic apply to Canadian, international developed and emerging market equities?”
Yes, same applies. The US economy/markets largely dictate/drives what happens globally and here in Canada. The aim of today’s blog is to show the ‘big picture’ that rising rates don’t derail bull markets, at least initially. Later in the rate tightening cycles, when the higher rates are actually weighing on the economy, and we start to see an ‘inverted yield curve’, then we have to start getting worried about a rollover in the economy and markets. – Ryan L
@#14 Quinty’s Querky Questions.
“No sure if at the present time you can extrapolate anything useful from history that would apply at present.”
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Ahhh yesssss.
Because humanity’s thinking has advanced so much further in the past 5 years.
Lizard brains and poo flinging monkeys come to mind as I watch the Cronvoy descend on Ottawa.
Shaggy “Ryan, I really enjoy and look forward your analysis week in and week out – the way that you state your position and then clearly articulate the reasoning with historical trends is very persuasive. And couldn’t agree more, the market had baked in a BoC rate hike, why they’d want to surprise by standing pat is beyond me.”
That’s very kind of you. Thank you! We (Garth, Doug and myself) have a lot knowledge about the markets/economy and we’re on a quest to share this with as many people as we can. Do we get it all right? Absolutely not, but we do the best we can with the info/knowledge we have and feedback like this is what motivates to do these blog posts, BNN interviews etc. – Ryan L
Bigger crowd on my TV screen than at Girth-Wind&Liar’s inauguration ceremony!
Yuge but sad.
Safe question “Thanks Ryan. As markets are forward looking, how long before we should start recalibrating the fixed income portion of our portfolio to reflect a neutral / stable interest rate environment?”
At least another year or two. We haven’t even started the rate tightening yet. I just did some analysis for a client (looked at the difference between variable and fixed rates based on our expectations for rate hikes) and the typical tightening by the BoC is around 250 bps or ten 25 bps hikes over the full cycle. Currently the market is pricing in 175 bps to the end of 2023. So I would say by the end of 2023 we’re getting closer to a neutral/stable rate environment. Until then keep bonds short-term, more corporate bonds, floating rate bonds and prefs. Towards the end of 2023/2024, then we start looking at those long-term government bonds again. – Ryan L
Borrow to invest?
#1 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 01.29.22 at 10:51 am
Speaking of rising interest rates, at what minimum spread, does a margin loan stop making sense? My uneducated brain says 5%.
Time for the steerage section to rip me apart for playing with margin…
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Borrowing to invest is very dependent on the risk of the investment and where the person is in age and financial profile and probably domestic profile (are you risking for yourself or also for a wife and even kids?).
Personally I look at borrowing $100k to make $5k and the $5k is just not exciting compared to my income and assets. Around $25k I start to get interested. But then I would have to borrow $500k which I can barely do on an Edmonton house.
I am just simply not interested in getting into debt at 61 years of age. Especially not putting up the house to do so. The $500k investments could easily fall to say $400 temporarily and I don’t need that stress or the feeling of having made a wrong decision.
Younger single people with lower incomes and few assets might want to swing for the fences and leverage. Especially if you think you have a sure sire winner.
So, there is no one-size-fits-all answer to your question.
To each his own.
In these fast approaching apocalyptic times, I am ever more grateful for our now 2yo Munsterlander. He’s a German-origin versatile hunting dog bred over hundreds of years to be a complete package for putting provisions of all types in the larder. Amazing instinct, athleticism, biddability and durability. Burrs don’t stick to him, cactus doesn’t bother him, he scoffs at full day -10 degree waterwork, and would go over Mt Everst for a retrieve. He fears only one thing: the Benson Gorge cable-stayed pedestrian bridge. Luckily it’s easy to bypass by sprinting waay down the vertical canyon walls, swimming a whitewater rapid, traversing extensive log dams and climbing the opposite canyon wall. No biggie.
The hardest part for us was learning German.
Remember Monday’s lesson
“Predictions are difficult.” Especially when they involve central banks.
#2 Flop… on 01.29.22 at 10:53 am
My wife asked me if I wanted to have sex.
After looking at that bottom chart, I said not now honey I’ve got a headache…
M47BC
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This one’s for the lady: peel your eyes away from that chart and go take care of your gold.
And after that go online and order her a fantastic Valentine’s Day gift… something beyond essential.
Markets are supposed to girate, but don’t let your relationship drop off a cliff!
#11 Shaggy on 01.29.22 at 12:06 pm
“And couldn’t agree more, the market had baked in a BoC rate hike, why they’d want to surprise by standing pat is beyond me.”
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Definitely sketchy and a sign something isn’t quite right. One of my guesses is that they in fact have no intention of ever raising rates. It actually seems like they’re waiting for the onset of some kind of financial accident to provide them with even more cover. Could it be Russia, Taiwan, more Evergrande spilloff? Time will tell, but I’m convinced their inaction was by design.
Ryan, I agree with your stance on the BoC – they ‘should’ have begun to raise rates. What I’m wondering is whether they actually will. Realistically if the Fed raises rates the BoC follows, but given that the BoC has hinted they won’t raise rates until the CPI is back to the 2% range I’m wondering if they will continue to do nothing. Beware the Ides of March:)
Ryan, i am torn between two etf’s for the floating rate component of bonds.
Xfr. Is floating rate bond etf
Xrb is real return bond etf
Supposedly both provide interest rate protection. Would real return bond be a good replacement for floating rate ones? Looking at the net asset value, real return is almost double in size
The BOC has no bullets left to counter the next recession so it makes no sense to not start reloading when they have the green light, being that the first quarter point is insignificant in the grand scheme of things but stronger as a message. But to me it was not a surprise as I couldn’t see them doing it until the US does it first . Canada acts reactively, not proactively. And the oil bulls should be careful about what they wish for because prolonged oil prices well north of $100 will surely tip a fragile economic recovery into a recession.
Now that was an informed analysis. Good read.
Like walking a tight rope into the future.
Much appreciated Ryan. You can’t find this type of analysis in the mainstream media.
#27 Cici on 01.29.22 at 2:35 pm
#11 Shaggy on 01.29.22 at 12:06 pm
“And couldn’t agree more, the market had baked in a BoC rate hike, why they’d want to surprise by standing pat is beyond me.”
_____________________________________________
Definitely sketchy and a sign something isn’t quite right. One of my guesses is that they in fact have no intention of ever raising rates. It actually seems like they’re waiting for the onset of some kind of financial accident to provide them with even more cover. Could it be Russia, Taiwan, more Evergrande spilloff? Time will tell, but I’m convinced their inaction was by design.
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Maybe they are cashing in their investments before they pull the trigger? Could just be hubris or political. Or they could be worried about the affect on the over indebted…as in Timber to personal finances. The warning shots have been fired telling people, rates are rising and so are variable mortgages so lock in now. Just check out bloombergs headlines for the past 4 weeks.
I can’t see Russia or China moving yet. Could be wrong but they need to appear to be stable and exhibit diplomatic behaviour if they want to attract trade partners, support etc.
#2 Flop… on 01.29.22 at 10:53 am
My wife asked me if I wanted to have sex.
After looking at that bottom chart, I said not now honey I’ve got a headache…
M47BC
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Good you didn’t reply…’With who?’
You say…..
“central banks are hiking rates because the economy is doing better”
…………………………………….
You didn’t say anything about inflation and where it came from… having (for the most part) been created out of rampant government spending to keep a great multitude of workers home and off the job with government support payments. And in that with a much lower production of goods and supplies that didn’t keep pace with normal supply and demand. Then there’s all that free money that didn’t create near enough replacement goods and supplies that was spent consuming diminishing stockpiles, with resultant shortages and steadily rising inflation because of that.
So the economy is doing ok… and to a significant extent due to cash support hand-outs adding to the national debt. Just not as a result of real overall production leading to this inflation. Hiking rates is not solely due to a better economy as it is more to do with the runaway inflation created by this artificial economy built on debt creation and the need to get inflation under control.
You say….
“I subscribe to Winston Churchill’s belief that “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it”, which is why I’ve always studied and leaned on market history in making my calls and recommendations over the years. It’s not infallible of course, but based on market history, combined with our views that the global economy will continue to recover and grow this year”
…………………………………
I would say observing history applies to many things, just not an economy that’s entered uncharted territory with unprecedented levels of debt peculiarly squandered by the (former US) and existing government that’s led to the now irreparable inflation bomb barrelling out of control to oblivion.
In this regard history lessons of the past were ignored long ago.
Now we have unprecedented consequences and the fallout to deal with as a result of the Fed irresponsibly kicking the can of tough measures for lasting solutions down the road again and again.
Today we stand at the point where getting back to and undertaking such viable solutions of the past of gradually increasing rates the Fed should have done long ago (now surely past) , would now require an interest rate increase of 7 full percentage points and more to get ahead of inflation that would in time see it all slowly subside to a more historical economic state.
Not happening….at least not until the Fed is and will be forced to make such moves.
Instead, inflation which is only just tearing through the excess of 2019 and the pre-pandemic debt creation currently, hasn’t yet, but soon will spill out the inflation effects of the pandemic spending excess.
The goofy measures planned by the Fed now of paltry interest rate increases that should have started 10 years ago already and been maintained that would have worked then, are little more than that now…just as goofy as the Fed with their bs bag of tricks can get.
The only way the economy grows and stays growing will be through more inflationary driving debt creation and because of the building inflation that’s projected still to come, add more debt creation yet still to service existing debt driving more inflation.
It all ends with historically normalized interest rates that beat inflation or we default and implode…but inflation and ever increasing inflation is here to stay.
Expect an inflation/stagflation depression in the years ahead without real historical normalizing interest rates and that is about the only history… economically speaking left, bearing any viability in these unprecedented times.
#30 ‘Diharv’ – but in Alberta, the current UCP government is doubtless sacrificing chickens as they pray for the return of an oil & gas boom which they can then take credit for. Already there have been headlines that the current oil prices have ‘erased the deficit’ – provincially, that is. Not sure what would have to occur to erase the federal government deficit!
CPI greater than 7% in the US
greater than 5% in Canada
interest rates at 0.25%
threat of raising rates to 1.75% 2%? who cares.
won’t do a thing. markets are going much much higher.
sadly, they will create another bubble that will eventually pop. but it won’t happen now.
not unless CPI climbs even higher and Central banks start raising at 50bps per meeting
not to say the market doesn’t have problems.
i. AD Line well below NOV peaks. (you know this is how tops are formed. every market top was preceded by a failure of the AD line to make highs and diverged weeks to months)
ii. MONSTER amount of NEW 52 week lows on NYSE and Nasdaq. (30% + Comp stock at new 52 week lows)
iii. 40% + of nasdaq stocks have lost 50% from peaks
iv. recent surge in defensive stocks vs high fliers
v. the VIX has stayed historically HIGH, refusing to drop to the 8-12 level. higher VIX levels indicate investor anxiety.
vi. energy prices. you could see140$ crude this year and NatGas prices rise by 3-4X from where they are today. no question if that happens, the economy is sunk. the refusal by governments not to act on Nuclear power is just idiotic. it’s the only way we’ll get out of the energy mess over time. wind and solar are a disaster.
I don’t think stock markets are going higher this year. It looks more like a big correction coming in 2022. What we have seen so far is nothing in my humble opinion.
Should emotional concerns factor into investing decisions?
Todays current events like variants and Putin are just as precarious as the market dump when the pandemic started.
Buying opportunities don’t present themselves often enough.
#2 Flop… on 01.29.22 at 10:53 am
My wife asked me if I wanted to have sex.
After looking at that bottom chart, I said not now honey I’ve got a headache…
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Hmm… Im not seeing what you are seeing. Mine says… All systems go!
Been married 20 years later this year, before COVID if you asked me how we are going to celebrate, I probably would have said with a trip to Hawaii.
Dunno what will happen later this year, but I suspect we’ll be just fine either way.
Going from 3 trips a year to nil is a bit of a lifestyle change, yes, but also I refused to be a victim of the transformation in current society, and upgraded my employment situation and financial portfolio’s as I head into the final 3rd of my work career.
Yes, my joke up thread was a little risqué, but this is Greaterfool, not some walk in the park, vanilla, financial newsletter with cobwebs on it.
My wife is fine with me joking about her on here, quite often if she comes through the door at night and sees me reading the blog, she’ll ask “What’s Garthie got to say about things today?”
She actually helped me when I was banned from certain websites when I had my spin-off real estate blog Pink Snow, and has seen Garth admonish me for doing something stupid and sincerely thanked for showing him some information, or taking time to scrape moss off the headstone of his great-grandfather’s gravesite.
Overall the friendship has been beneficial to both sides, I suspect.
I’m not a yes man.
I would rather be myself and upset a true friend occasionally then be fake, and just be a friend of convenience.
Back to Mrs Flop.
How often should you tell your spouse you love them?
I probably don’t do it enough, but I’m an action man.
Not a day goes by when she doesn’t realize that I sacrificed a lot to allow her to continue to live here with all her friends and family on hand, while I have tried my best in the last 2 decades to build my own secondary support system, one best friend that does everything is better than 50 flakes.
So in December if there’s one foot of snow on the ground, and we decide to stay in to mark the occasion and I serve up soup, I live with no fear that I will be yelled at for insufficient effort.
It won’t be just any soup, it’ll be her favourite…
M47BC
https://vancouversoupcompany.com
“I actually think the BoC made a mistake by not hiking this week as they clearly have to with inflation at a 30-year high.” – RL
Yes, they should have girded their loins and pulled the trigger, but they chickened out. Nervous Nellies. We need a guy like Paul Volcker who turns on the dentist drill without any anesthetic.
About this ‘volatility’ that is expected: What happened to the ‘Roaring Twenties’ hypothesis?I thought there was tons of cash lying around and opportunities to be seized?
Jaguar is sticking with the prediction that markets and the economy are going to take off like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
The Pandemic is over after 24 rounds of ‘rope a dope’. Time to take Covid out behind the barn and then ‘shoot, shovel, and shut up’ about it.
US is starting to retract with companies sitting on record inventories. Rates hikes I’d say are not guaranteed yet. We need the US gov to get the fiscal packages passed to change course.
#4 Weltschmerz on 01.29.22 at 11:14 am
Great post, Ryan. Thanks.
How will markets perform if Russia decides to act? What have we learned from history in this respect?
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We’ve learned that the Bidens owe Burisma a turn for that $50,000 a month Hunter was making to do nothing in an area he knew nothing about for a company with whom he couldn’t communicate because he didn’t speak the language.
It’s all about North Stream 2 and control of the European energy market. The Ukraine doesn’t like the Russian gas going around them. Maybe if they’d have stopped stealing it in transit Russia wouldn’t have had to go around, but hey.
The US, on the other hand, would rather the Europeans buy LNG from the US. Little do they know they don’t actually have that much gas to sell, and if they aren’t supposed to use it in the US for climate reasons how does it make sense to sell it to the Europeans?
There is no planned “Russian invasion”.
#24 Sail Away on 01.29.22 at 1:50 pm
In these fast approaching apocalyptic times, I am ever more grateful for our now 2yo Munsterlander. He’s a German-origin versatile hunting dog
++++++++++++++
I hope you named him Hermann.
My belief is that the Trudeau gang is hell bent on raising revenue to 437b by 2024, as per their published budget. Without the additional revenue their plan for a better Canada eventually falls apart. So, we need approx. 140b in more revenue by 2024, and they’ll do whatever it takes to make it happen. Higher interest rates certainly won’t help, which is why Tiff held off this week on raising them. I’m also thinking CF’s upcoming budget has something to do with it. More taxes on the way, meaning more needed revenue, and hopefully cooling inflation at the same time.
Was thinking earlier that CBC today filming a shot of an empty side street in Ottawa reminded me of the Singapore press during election time.
Then my wife walked in and said exactly the same thing.
A thought on the convoy:
How big is it? Is it a “fringe element” or only people with “unacceptable views”?
– No major logistics or trucking firms are participating, for obvious reasons. Therefore pretty much all the trucks are independently owned.
– Loaded and booked trucks likely adhered to their schedules, even the independent ones. Hauling someone’s furniture to Ottawa and back in the middle of a move wouldn’t have gone over well.
– Truckers don’t need to bring their trucks. The private vehicles are part of the convoy.
– Therefore we can conclude that of the available trucks and truckers, the turnout is pretty big.
– Lots of support on the side of the road. Even the Hutterites were handing out burgers.
– Supposedly the largest trucker convoy the world has ever seen already and it’s still growing. Sympathetic protests are popping up in other parts of the world and now it looks like even the US.
– The usual leftist media talking points are all over the place. All protestors are “misogynous”, “racist”, “anti-science”, “violent”, “unpatriotic”, “sexist”, “extremist”, “right-wing”, “anti-vaxxers”, and probably “climate deniers” and “smell of elderberries” too. Oh and now the CBC figures they are in Putin’s back pocket, because Russia has nothing better to worry about than trucking regulations in Canada.
It’s insane. Not the convoy, the reaction to it.
The pandemic is over.
(Disclaimer: I am vaxxed. I even wear a mask. Especially at Walmart, but that’s mostly because it’s Walmart.)
#41 the Jaguar on 01.29.22 at 4:40 pm
Jaguar is sticking with the prediction that markets and the economy are going to take off like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
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Starts with T, ends with A, ESL in the middle.
#41 the Jaguar on 01.29.22 at 4:40 pm
like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
++++++++++++++++++++++
I thought i was the only one in the world who knew or remembered that. Most people never heard of it. There was a computer chip that would make it go even faster. I saw one parked on the street a block from my house about 3 months ago. Looked mint. I thought about stealing it but decided not to.
My high quality post yesterday got banned.. what gives !
12 Bubble
Stock Market is in a historic bubble. Listen to Grantham, one of the the best investors who predicted the 2000 bubble and 2008 bubble
———————
Here’s the prediction magic investment newsletter sellers use.
Make 50-60 predictions each year. That gives them at least one or two correct predictions to point to. Helps sell subscriptions.
Unless a person fancies themselves a trader as opposed to an investor, going to cash makes zero sense. If you go to cash and are wrong, you’re screwed as you watch the market run away from you and wait in vain for it to correct.
But let’s say miraculously you are right and the market takes a big drop. Do you know when it bottoms? Do you wait for it to drop more? When it starts to recover do you wait thinking it’s a dead cat bounce? So you not only have to be right about the correction , but you also have to be right about when to re-enter.
And if the account is not a RRSP or TFSA you have paid taxes on any gains you made from going to cash.
Simply stay invested. When markets correct they always recover and make new highs. As the saying goes “it’s time in the market, not timing the market.”
#44 Yukon Elvis on 01.29.22 at 5:16 pm
#24 Sail Away on 01.29.22 at 1:50 pm
In these fast approaching apocalyptic times, I am ever more grateful for our now 2yo Munsterlander. He’s a German-origin versatile hunting dog
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I hope you named him Hermann.
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That’s a fantastic name! Next one (because there will be more).
#43 Nonplused on 01.29.22 at 5:15 pm
Hello, thanks for your reply.
I will never pretend that I know the details that you speak of but I’m sure your resources are sound.
What I do know is the anxiety that even the prospect of an invasion brings. All those people in the area will act in different ways. Some will follow suit. By that I mean following the herd. Selling, buying, moving. Including those with all the money.
This to me is just the next unknown.
Ryan – what did the 1970’s teach if we are putting history in perspective?
2022 is a pause and recalibrate for me. No new money will be invested in either the markets or RE.
#47 Nonplused on 01.29.22 at 5:45 pm
– Therefore we can conclude that of the available trucks and truckers, the turnout is pretty big.
Supposedly the largest trucker convoy the world has ever seen already and it’s still growing. Sympathetic protests are popping up in other parts of the world and now it looks like even the US.
—————————————————————-
What are the sources of your info?
According to eyewitnesses:
⚠️ TRUCK CONVOY UPDATE ⚠️
As of 9:35 am all roads have reopened and all trucks and passenger vehicles have departed #ygk and are now EB on Hwy 401.
Our count:
❄️17 full tractor trailers
❄️104 tractors w no trailers
❄️424 passenger vehicles
❄️6 RVs
— Kingston Police (@KingstonPolice) January 28, 2022
#41 Jag
About this ‘volatility’ that is expected: What happened to the ‘Roaring Twenties’ hypothesis?I thought there was tons of cash lying around and opportunities to be seized?
—————
There is.
Except it’s not being spend on fancy clothes, parties and dancing shoes.
It’s going straight into buying rental condos.
At least here in the Lower Mainland.
2022 could prove to be a bumper year for investors. One never knows really,and this is why buy and hold has merit over the decades.
Contrarians lay in wait for weakness and take full advantage of oversold positions while maintaining core positions.
Trying to predict the future is pointless as it always has been.
#47 Nonplused on 01.29.22 at 5:45 pm
A thought on the convoy:
Any thoughts on the Nazi , Swastika flags being flown?
Any thoughts on the partying on the Tomb of the Unknown Solider?
Any thoughts on the defacing of the Terry Fox statue?
Any thoughts on the piss filled Gatorade bottles and the poop filled Walmart bags being strewn around?
Any thoughts on them parked on a war memorial then blaming the government for not telling them that they couldn’t park there? For their rally against the government telling them what to do.
This is a fund raiser/grift for the Maverick Party, the same party that used the Yellow Vest protests to grift money from the gullible…same lady that ran the funds for that is “in charge” of this GoFundMe too.
My thought; Any time I’m supporting a group that flies Nazi flags I’m supporting the wrong side.
BoC has no intention on hiking the rates.
The real inflation is red hot of 15 %, official fake numbers of 5-7 %, rate at 0.25 (?!?) and they are not raising rates?
Total failure to ensure price stability as their core mandate.
And what we get at a press release?
economic slack, blah bah blah
supply chain disruptions, blah blah blah
key mandate – inflation of 2 %, expecting ‘inflation’ to go down to 3 % by the end of the year.
My gut feeling is that inflation will only accelerate.
Almost certain number of 15-20 % this year alone official fake number of 6-8 %
and an apology if they get it wrong, with the message:
—
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged during a press conference that prices have risen to uncomfortably high levels.
“Canadians can be assured that we will use our monetary policy tools to control inflation,” he said.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-canada-holds-benchmark-interest-rate-150924783.html
—
These people will make sure that inflation will stay very high, in double digits for a very long time, while lying and doing nothing about it, keeping rates low, which is the equivalent of one time hyperinflation with return to elevated inflation after that.
The cherry on the cake?
The government ‘benefits’ including pensions will be indexed with 1-2 %.
These people believe that the population is comprised of idiots and the sheeple does nothing to disprove them.
And this is just starting, wait until it gets really, really interesting.
… But nonetheless, rates are going up …
I keep hearing that since 2008-2009. And as a result rates are at historic low of 0.25 % now.
Do you really believe that?
I don’t.
#49 Yukon Elvis on 01.29.22 at 5:56 pm
#41 the Jaguar on 01.29.22 at 4:40 pm
like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
++++++++++++++++++++++
I thought i was the only one in the world who knew or remembered that. Most people never heard of it. There was a computer chip that would make it go even faster. I saw one parked on the street a block from my house about 3 months ago. Looked mint. I thought about stealing it but decided not to.
——-
They made a special model of the GN called the GNX, that’d be the one to steal!
#58 Ustabe on 01.29.22 at 8:31 pm
All of your points are cherry picked and or completely irrelevant.
If you are incapable of seeing the bigger picture, just stay out of the way.
Don’t be such a negative Nelly bud.
The Americans are in relatively good shape, despite atrocious governance by democrats.
But China is going down and Canada is going down with it. Not sure about the when, but this country is screwed on a major scale.
#61 IHCTD9 on 01.29.22 at 9:33 pm
#49 Yukon Elvis on 01.29.22 at 5:56 pm
#41 the Jaguar on 01.29.22 at 4:40 pm
like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
++++++++++++++++++++++
I thought i was the only one in the world who knew or remembered that. Most people never heard of it. There was a computer chip that would make it go even faster. I saw one parked on the street a block from my house about 3 months ago. Looked mint. I thought about stealing it but decided not to.
——-
They made a special model of the GN called the GNX, that’d be the one to steal!
++++++++++++++++++
That is the one ! 3.8 turbo , 12.5 ish quarter mile, 0-60 under 5 sec. Hot car for the mid 80’s. Lotsa room and a back seat too.
#55 Joseph R. on 01.29.22 at 7:55 pm
#47 Nonplused on 01.29.22 at 5:45 pm
– Therefore we can conclude that of the available trucks and truckers, the turnout is pretty big.
Supposedly the largest trucker convoy the world has ever seen already and it’s still growing. Sympathetic protests are popping up in other parts of the world and now it looks like even the US.
—————————————————————-
What are the sources of your info?
According to eyewitnesses:
⚠️ TRUCK CONVOY UPDATE ⚠️
As of 9:35 am all roads have reopened and all trucks and passenger vehicles have departed #ygk and are now EB on Hwy 401.
Our count:
❄️17 full tractor trailers
❄️104 tractors w no trailers
❄️424 passenger vehicles
❄️6 RVs
— Kingston Police (@KingstonPolice) January 28, 2022
———-
There’s no way 50,000 trucks showed up. Looks like the estimates are about 1-1.5K trucks, and it would surprise me if even that many actual semi’s showed up. That said, the largest truck convoy in history was only 480 trucks.
GN’s are selling for serious money these days. Someone sure remembers them.
#33 DON on 01.29.22 at 3:17 pm
#2 Flop… on 01.29.22 at 10:53 am
My wife asked me if I wanted to have sex.
After looking at that bottom chart, I said not now honey I’ve got a headache…
M47BC
********
Good you didn’t reply…’With who?’
———————————————————–
I had a similar request. She wanted it in the back of a pickup truck and she wanted me to drive.
#61 IHCTD9 on 01.29.22 at 9:33 pm
#49 Yukon Elvis on 01.29.22 at 5:56 pm
#41 the Jaguar on 01.29.22 at 4:40 pm
like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
++++++++++++++++++++++
I thought i was the only one in the world who knew or remembered that. Most people never heard of it. There was a computer chip that would make it go even faster. I saw one parked on the street a block from my house about 3 months ago. Looked mint. I thought about stealing it but decided not to.
——-
They made a special model of the GN called the GNX, that’d be the one to steal!
++++++++++++++++++
That is the one ! 3.8 turbo , 12.5 ish quarter mile, 0-60 under 5 sec. Hot car for the mid 80’s. Lotsa room and a back seat too.
——————–
The only problem with them, I’m told, is that the sub-frames would rust out…
#64 Yukon Elvis on 01.29.22 at 10:21 pm
#61 IHCTD9 on 01.29.22 at 9:33 pm
#49 Yukon Elvis on 01.29.22 at 5:56 pm
#41 the Jaguar on 01.29.22 at 4:40 pm
like a Buick Grand National in the spring. (fastest production car in the world in its heyday).
++++++++++++++++++++++
I thought i was the only one in the world who knew or remembered that. Most people never heard of it. There was a computer chip that would make it go even faster. I saw one parked on the street a block from my house about 3 months ago. Looked mint. I thought about stealing it but decided not to.
——-
They made a special model of the GN called the GNX, that’d be the one to steal!
++++++++++++++++++
That is the one ! 3.8 turbo , 12.5 ish quarter mile, 0-60 under 5 sec. Hot car for the mid 80’s. Lotsa room and a back seat too.
———
If so, that is a super rare car, only about 600 made. Those numbers are awesome for the late 80’s! That’s right around the time we all started realizing that the death of the carburetor may not have been such a bad thing after all :)
The economy is doing better??? I doubt it.
#65 IHCTD9 on 01.29.22 at 11:00 pm
“What are the sources of your info?”
The internets. Anyway I agree it is nowhere near 50,000 trucks. A 50,000 truck convoy would be 1,150 km long (also from the internets). 50,000 people protesting across the nation I might believe.
I don’t know who came up with “50,000 trucks”. Sounds like “poisoning the well”.
I think we are talking in the order of 1,000 trucks, maybe less, maybe more, plus vehicles, plus supporters.
Probably still more than the army can put together.
#58 Ustabe on 01.29.22 at 8:31 pm
#47 Nonplused on 01.29.22 at 5:45 pm
A thought on the convoy:
Any thoughts on the Nazi , Swastika flags being flown?
Any thoughts on the partying on the Tomb of the Unknown Solider?
Any thoughts on the defacing of the Terry Fox statue?
Any thoughts on the piss filled Gatorade bottles and the poop filled Walmart bags being strewn around?
Any thoughts on them parked on a war memorial then blaming the government for not telling them that they couldn’t park there? For their rally against the government telling them what to do.
This is a fund raiser/grift for the Maverick Party, the same party that used the Yellow Vest protests to grift money from the gullible…same lady that ran the funds for that is “in charge” of this GoFundMe too.
My thought; Any time I’m supporting a group that flies Nazi flags I’m supporting the wrong side.
————————————-
I have not seen any Nazi flags. And the Maverick party? It is important to take your meds every day.
Buick GN stuff…
Didn’t think I’d ever see this subject pop up on this forum! I’ve been fortunate enuff to own a few of these cars, and they’re FUN! Definitely a left turn for the sport when all us gearheads were still living the V8 dream in the 80s; a turbocharged V6 seemed heretical in our world…
Until you drove one, or pulled up beside one at a stoplight…my tastes in Buicks are a bit more old school (as some might gather from the stage 1 handle) but I personally wouldn’t try to build a 455 to compete with an intercooled car; certainly not one that had decent driveability.
Btw, the T-Types used to be a bit cheaper than the black GNs, but feature the same driveline. (I haven’t kept up with the market lately, btw) If you’re lucky enuff to find a Limited, you’ll have all the senior citizen chrome and a vinyl roof to fit in at the country club, a 60/40 split bench, velour interior, (or leather) granny shift, all the bells n whistles, and a car the wife can take to Superstore…and she’ll have no idea what its capable of, unless she let’s it spool up and sticks her foot into it. Real sleepers!
The only thing giving it away is the small hood bulge and the “3.8 SFI TURBO” emblem on the hood.
Incidentally, the 84 and 85 cars are NOT intercooled, and not as quick as their 86-87 cousins. You can get a “hot air” car to run hard, but you’ll go thru a bunch of money…the intercooled cars offer a lot more possibility for serious power mods, and MAY be more collectible long term.
(The black GNs are rare enuff in all 4 years I personally dont think the hot air cars are going to be much cheaper than the later intercooled ones; the cars “Darth Vader” image is whats selling it)
Buick also built a carb turbo version of this engine from 78-83, and they’re a nice driving car (especially with the true hi back buckets!) but you won’t win too many races, and you need to chase the tuning continually. (Had a couple of them too)
One last point, the 87 GNs (and I believe the GNXs) have a clearcoat applied over the black, and I’ve seen several with “peeling” issues. Given the cost of cosmetics in this day and age, fixing this can be a considerable expense…even if no bodywork and/or rust issues are present.
Lastly, besides having owned several, I’ve worked on dozens; and if they’ve been exposed to weather and/or driven hard there’s a bunch of issues that will empty your wallet in a hurry: dogleg of the rear framerails rot out because of drainage issues, lower door rot due to condensation, lower rocker rust issues in front of rear wheels, and if its a T bar car remove the panels and peel back some of the weatherstrip to check for rust out, especially the R & L windshield posts (A pillar area) I’ve seen 2 that needed total replacement, and that should be the strongest part of the vehicle. One had cracks extending 5″-6″ onto the top of firewall fer chrisakes!
Lastly, check out the RH sail panel above the rear wheel in good light and several angles, if the cars been run hard at the track with serious power and WITHOUT proper chassis setup and rear axle tech, there will be a visible “wave” or slight depression in this area; because of the tourque the RH rear tire gets planted harder on an OEM car and it will actually wrinkle the body in this area.
Check out V8buick.com or one of the turbo Buick websites for more info.
Wow…first post in a long time where I wasn’t bitching about something…maybe I should buy another one.
23 Borrow money – to make 5% . Agreed, I would never risk borrowed money for a paltry before tax return of 5 %. Nor would I put out my own capital unless the after tax return is substantially higher. I say no a lot.
Is 41-year period history? It’s a blink of an eye. This way we can say we have averaged one global pandemic each century. So are we statistically in the clear now?
My prediction is that in March we will be saying I told you so again – no rate increase. OR if they do raise than later this year they reverse course. If you say let’s go by history what says then this is 2018 again. If they wanted to raise rates they have had 10 years to so. And now they’re still delaying a measly .25% lift. What does that tell you? This blog has been predicting rate increases and housing cliff for a decade now.
Thanks Ryan. Another blogger indicated you do not see this type of analysis elsewhere in the MSM, and I think they are right. Thanks for this perspective.
And changing the topic, the truck convoy seems so unproductive to me. Heard a caller on a call-in radio show who was a supporter, say there was 150,000 trucks going to Ottawa. These are the people you like to play poker with at the casino …. I hope they get back soon. I would like to know the number of supporters Erin the Tool is losing this week. What a week for T2, he should force another election to get a majority!
#63 Pbrasseur on 01.29.22 at 10:13 pm
“[…] China is going down and Canada is going down with it. Not sure about the when, but this country is screwed on a major scale.” I take it you didn’t invest in maple last year. My maple account in 2021 earned a rate of return of 27.38%. So sorry to hear that your investment decisions are based on ideology, not facts and math. You just may be as ignorant and unteachable as Nonplused. :P
@#47 Nonplused
“I am vaxxed. I even wear a mask. Especially at Walmart, but that’s mostly because it’s Walmart.”
+++
Good one.
@ #62 alf on 01.29.22 at 10:04 pm
#58 Ustabe on 01.29.22 at 8:31 pm
All of your points are cherry picked and or completely irrelevant.
If you are incapable of seeing the bigger picture, just stay out of the way.
Don’t be such a negative Nelly bud.
–
Nah, his points have merit. That parade was a charade.
I’m sure a % were decent people but that whole debacle was just a bug light for the fringe.
@ Ryan
Another good article with charts to soothe the nervous investors.
But you’re preaching to one of the converted.
I’m planning to continue pumping more cash into my B&D portfolio unless Anna Kournikova dumps that rich, good looking, loser hubby and decides to call.
Still waiting.
@#144 Sam Waxman the Wise
“We’re always ready for anything.”
+++
I’ve heard that tax audits can come as quite a shock.
#72 Nonplused on 01.29.22 at 11:56 pm
I have not seen any Nazi flags. And the Maverick party? It is important to take your meds every day.
If you have not seen any swastikas placed on Canadian flags, Nazi flags carried right beside the upside down Canadian flag, etc then you aren’t very well informed. All you have to do is check out CTV, Global, social media of any sort.
As to your surprise that I mentioned the Maverick Party, it is a Maverick Party officer who is listed on the convoy’s GoFundMe, Tamara Lich. Who has disappeared with that first million released it would seem. Just as she did with the Yellow Vest funds, same playbook because apparently it works.
Your little shot about me needing meds is low, even for you.
Talked to an old coworker and friend from Ottawa yesterday.
He told me he “pulled a Crowdy today! You would have been proud of me!”
He was forced to walk to work because of the protestors and street blockades.
He was wearing a mask.
Some lady in a car stuck in traffic yelled at him,
” You don’t need to wear that mask its all fake!”
He walked over to her and pull his mask down and coughed once and said, “Then you don’t have anything to worry about.”
Her eyes went as wide as saucers and she started screaming obscenities at him as he walked away into the crowd.
To all you Tonka Truck lovers out there; Fun and games are over. The kids that were left loose unsupervised in the candy shop can go home now. Nice touch dancing on a grave!
Can’t wait to see if the vaccine mandate will change – oh right. It won’t!
Nice little road trip, though. Definitely an excuse to tie one on a couple of times. I’m sure our capitol has many pot shops. Doesn’t the hill sell edibles in the souvenir shop?
Hey, on the way home you can storm wall street. And idle your truck no more (ya know, climate change and all that). I’m sure Jordan and Joe will appreciate.
Og
Bronze Bullet “ … But nonetheless, rates are going up …
I keep hearing that since 2008-2009. And as a result rates are at historic low of 0.25 % now.
Do you really believe that?
I don’t.”
Yes I do believe that. The BoC has already increased rates since 2009. They hiked the rate from .25 to 1.75 just before Covid hit. This time we have a 30 year high in inflation so yes I see rates heading back up. – Ryan L
It never ceases to amaze me that the “Children of the Internet” aka Millenials…
Don’t quite grasp the significance of their “15 seconds of fame” when it’s recorded and then immediately posted for the entire world to see in all it’s drunken stupidity.
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/defence-chief-criticizes-protesters-for-dancing-on-national-war-memorial
Weltschmerz “Great post, Ryan. Thanks.
How will markets perform if Russia decides to act? What have we learned from history in this respect?”
I think Russia is posturing and will not invade but if they do then markets will likely sell off. But if not a full blown and long conflict then markets recover and generally pretty quickly. – Ryan L
#76 Sam
“This blog has been predicting rate increases and housing cliff for a decade now.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
So as not to be lumped in with those making predictions only…I have for one, the past 18 months or so (only) made – projections – regarding interest rates. And based them on the debt fueled inflation to come. Projections derived from extensive research for a time yet future tense.
Of this continuing debt bomb in the making these last 2 years that has put the national debt (of both economically linked countries) to never before seen absurd levels – past their previous but still manageable limits and into new territory of unsustainable debt.
As i have said countless times right here, this unprecedented level of new and now unmanageable debt piled on the last two years, makes all the difference in the world over the still manageable debt accumulated the previous 10 years you and many others can’t ever seem to differentiate from.
This unmanageable debt now as never before seen, changes times and history, and the debt will only continue to increase from here, bringing on never before seen levels of inflation … and forget the lies being told about it.
If economic suicide is what the Fed wants, then economic suicide is what we’ll get.
By not raising rates, and reigning in the mindless out of control spending, perpetually upward spiralling inflation reaching explosive new levels guarantees it.
And its what the Fed will opt out for…inflation…inflation…inflation…right up until they are forced to historically normalize rates later.
…but for now…a few insignificant tiny increases for 2022 will suffice from the Fed-book that will do nothing to quell real inflation.
Some people like predictions…I have no use for them.
Some projections take extensive research to come to.
Others are practically a no brainer with very little to research.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-david-searle-construction-worker-shortage-1.6329914
Now… the author is understanding why housing is cheaper outside of the GTA.
So, yeah forget about nice restaurants, store bought beer and vegetables, or stay in the GTA, and pay a million dollars for a chance to pay 10,000 property tax bills, and have all that too!
#73 stage1dave on 01.30.22 at 12:50 am
Buick GN stuff…
——
I figured you owned a GS based on your handle, or maybe a GSX? Looks like the GN/GNX kinda borrowed the naming strategy from the GS eh? I remember those GN’s quickly running 10’s after they came out, all still with perfect street manners. IMHO, the GN is also iconic because it ushered in the turbo/EFI street car era. 10 years later, turbo Civics were running 10’s!
I’ve only owned 2 turbo cars, a Merkur XR4ti, and a SAAB 900, both with a bleed valve installed in the wastegate actuator line :). Fun cars, V8 torque, V6 fuel economy.
I was a foxbody stang guy back in the day – lots of turbos ended up on those too! I just love the sound of a high compression, cammed Windsor small block Ford – this car made Flowmaster a successful company all by itself :). My quickest car was a 10 second ‘84 GT, 11:1, big nasty cam, all the usual mods, T5, 4:11’s, with 200 hp on top courtesy of the blue bottle (just in case a GN pulled alongside!).
#132 stage1dave on 01.29.22 at 2:44 am
^Your story is the perfect example, this WW3 is for our MINDS. You might as well have told him you were a Russian spy. Can’t be allowed in his shop.
#80 KLNR on 01.30.22 at 8:49 am
@ #62 alf on 01.29.22 at 10:04 pm
#58 Ustabe on 01.29.22 at 8:31 pm
All of your points are cherry picked and or completely irrelevant.
If you are incapable of seeing the bigger picture, just stay out of the way.
Don’t be such a negative Nelly bud.
–
Nah, his points have merit. That parade was a charade.
I’m sure a % were decent people but that whole debacle was just a bug light for the fringe.
———-
Probably more the other way around: 99% good people, 1% @sshole. You can’t get 100% good folks if you gather 100 or more together no matter what you do. That is how humans be, and it don’t matter what the cause is.
100% of the dumb things documented so far re the convoy, were committed by said demographic. Whether dancing on graves or toppling statues, Jan 6 or looting stores and burning cars. Idiots, every large group has them, it’ll never be any different.
#51 Reality Check on 01.29.22 at 6:04 pm
Correct and well stated. I would add that permabears stay quiet while the market advances 200%, perk up when it corrects 20%, then go back to been quiet as it advances another 200%. The next crash is always around the corner. Their favourite time frame is typically around 1 to 1.5 years from now.
Also, as the market continues to advance, and it becomes evident the permanbear’s predictions are wrong, they double down. Rhetoric becomes more extreme. You hear terms like “super bubble”, “mega bubble”, “super duper bubble” and so on. Ignore and stay invested.
Interest rates: they are going up. But not as high as everyone thinks. The reason is a lot (not all) of the inflation present is still a result of covid driven supply chain issues. These will work themselves out in time as covid fades. Also, after the shock of the pandemic, raising rates too high too fast will stifle economic growth while it is still somewhat delicate. Lastly, current debt levels provide a constraint. Prior to covid we got to 1.75%. This point would be the upward bounds of my prediction this time around as well. Volcker is not coming back, and neither is the 80’s. Those days are done.
IDK
Thanks Ryan,
With talk of markets being in bubble territory anyway it seems to me the smallest (not saying UKR-RUS is small) of influences could send them into a large sell off.
I am by no means a market professional. Even novice would be too high a praise. But I do understand commonality of human behavior where blind over reactions of the herd can be dangerous. So too, is being over informed.
What’s happening to crypto? The imaginary currency?
Ustabe, not sure how your buddy Dan Grec is getting on in Tasmania, but let’s hope he doesn’t run into anything sinister like these folks did.
This is an advertisement for a new podcast about people who have gone into the Tasmanian wilderness and never been seen again.
If you want to see some Tasmanian bush scenery click on the 2:40 minute preview video.
If you close your eyes up 90% of the way, and sneeze at the same time, some of it looks like Vancouver Island or Olympic Peninsula…
M47BC
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/the-lost-ones/the-lost-ones-a-new-podcast-about-whos-vanished-in-the-tasmanian-wilderness/news-story/98fcfdc9e3042c69a6d05f0af3dd9645
#4
Massive use of troops in a ground war is a distraction, Canada already has stopped an insurrection by the Russians from occurring. A feather in our cap for our intelligence agency that barely made the news, traces of this action can be found on the media in bits and pieces.
The CSIS agents stopped the tipsy Russian Junior hockey team from departing and having an emergency stop over in Kiev where the plan was to have the drunken group take over the capital building without a shot of alcohol being spilled.
The Russians watched the near perfect planning of the insurrection in the USA and have learned well.
I have a Buick in my distant past. A 69 GS 400. Pretty much as out of the box except a mild cam. Unfortunately not a Stage car, even base engine Canadian GS’s are rare enough. The cam made it pretty hard on fuel. I was young enough that I didn’t have a good understanding of how Q jet’s worked. Once leaded premium dried up the writing was on the wall. Fun times.
#91 IHCDT9
Right on all points, tho my lone GSX has been gone for a while, sold it in 07. A 10 second ‘stang is plenty quick, nothing I’ve built would go that fast unless I dropped it out of an airplane…sounds like quite a ride!
NOS is icing on the cake
A Merkur XR4ti is a pretty special car, on of bass playing buddies’ GFs had one new in 87 I think…I remember David E Davis said in his review it was one of the best balanced cars he’d ever driven. Ford did their homework on that turbo 2.3 too, a bit peaky (and wish they’d got rid of that plastic timing belt) but it just got stronger the next year.
I’ve been thru several fox bodies btw, but all Capris. Still have an 84 5.0/T5 car, but it got driven ONCE last year…I’m losing my touch. Most of my stuff is pretty much stock anymore, so hiway onramps are my big thrill these days…
#92 TurnerNation
Maybe I should sell this 5.0 Capri to Putin…
Hmmm, why they didn’t raise rates? Could it be because there is no Bigger Borrower than the Canadian Government?
With the national debt so high, low rates offer the opportunity to save potentially billions of dollars as the government rolls over its debt. Eventually they will also have to refinance at a higher rate… right?
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.30.22 at 9:42 am
It never ceases to amaze me that the “Children of the Internet” aka Millenials…
Don’t quite grasp the significance of their “15 seconds of fame” when it’s recorded and then immediately posted for the entire world to see in all it’s drunken stupidity.
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/defence-chief-criticizes-protesters-for-dancing-on-national-war-memorial
—————————————————–
They aren’t “Children of the Internet”. They were the Convoy protesters who did that.
They also harassed the Shepherds of Good Hope soup kitchen staff:
https://twitter.com/sghottawa/status/1487630726111576068
Blinded by their hatred of Canadian democracy, they forgot about food.
@#97 Floppie
No need to go all the way to Taz.
The North Shore mountains are full of lost skiers, snowboarders, hikers that disappeared….never to be found.
Then there is the recently discovered plane crash missing since the 1940’s behind Mt Seymour.
https://www.nsnews.com/living/downed-plane-a-mystery-for-47-years-2976722
Total wilderness right on the doorstep of a city of 2.5 million.
90 Wrk.dover – thank you for this link.
From the article
“Now, for most trades, you are looking at a year or two of college and a couple years of on-the-job experience at a labourer wage before you can move through your journeyman and complete the Red Seal.
Now you’ve entered the education-debt cycle that many turned to the construction industry to avoid in the first place.”
I dont agree with this statement however. A year or two to gain marketable skills is nothing. Way better than a comparitively useless uni degree. I explained this to many young people who would enquire about work. I would explain that it’s 20 months and one summer job
at most. Still, many did not want to commit to even that.
#100 stage1dave on 01.30.22 at 11:48 am
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I have not seen a bubble back Capri in person in ages, they must be pretty extinct. That GSX must have went for a pretty penny, not many made/survived. The Merk was a nice handling/riding car in its day, but no powerhouse. They made an RS version with a Cosworth DOHC 16V head and an intercooler, 275 hp iirc, but for Europe only. That would have been a sweet car with huge potential.
Some days I feel like I want another fox, but it’s doubtful it’d get driven much, and they go to hell if you let them sit.
#51 Reality Check on 01.29.22 at 6:04 pm
But let’s say miraculously you are right and the market takes a big drop. Do you know when it bottoms? Do you wait for it to drop more? When it starts to recover do you wait thinking it’s a dead cat bounce? So you not only have to be right about the correction , but you also have to be right about when to re-enter.
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Or, the bell rings at the top, (DEC 31), BoBo sells, gets back in @5% down.
Doesn’t matter if it drops yet more, he is 5% ahead of you.
#100 stage1dave on 01.30.22 at 11:48 am
A Merkur XR4ti is a pretty special car.
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Yes it is, i have few nice memories and one bad one when car decided to introduce its self to garbage container. it was european version of it ford sierra with 2.3l reg asp diesel engine and 5spd.
Funny thing about car was odometer only went up to 100k, one i drove probably went over than down to zero few times.
“The most important step in becoming successful in anything is to first become interested in it.”
— Sir William Osler
How true. When interested, you learn and retain everything possible, even the small details. After learning in that way, it’ll always be in your toolbox, so move on to the next passion with skill and knowledge from the first firmly established.
#94 I don’t know
“Interest rates: they are going up. But not as high as inflation present is still a result of covid driven supply chain issues. These will work themselves out in time as covid fades.”
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Yes…you really don’t know.
So a lot but not all of the present inflation is still a result of covid driven supply chain issues that will work themselves out in time as covid fades you say…
You need to do some research of your own before you post comment instead of accepting as fact off the cuff statements of others who are as equally ill informed as you are.
The inflation we are experiencing right now is due to excess US spending and debt accumulation from before the pandemic spending infusions, with that former spending now turning inflationary into the early pandemic created shortages.
We haven’t even felt the effects of the inflation we will from the government largesse created from the start of the pandemic and beyond.
We will soon start working through the fallout of that debt creation with much more and higher inflation for years to come without raising interest rates significantly.
Canada’s rate of inflation equivalent to CPI adjusted rates is at 4.8 percent currently. The US rate of inflation as per the CPI rate is currently over 7 percent.
Regardless of both countries joined at the hip economically speaking, the difference in the inflation rates is that Canada has yet to experience the Trudeau effect of the unprecedented government largesse borne of the pandemic of just under $400 billion having worked through the system as of yet. The fallout will soon be felt and with an inflation rate more in line with the US soon enough with the same consequences of doing too little too late in raising interest rates.
And this doesn’t begin to touch on the effects to come as both governments continue to recklessly pile on more and more debt yet still.
Hi Garth,
The original line was “Out with the truckers, and the kickers and the cowboy angels”.
From Gram Parsons’ “Grievous Angel”.
For me, things are just fine in Calgary and in Fort McMisery, but the weather is milder in Calgary.
Cheers,
WUL
P.S. FLOP, whassup?
Garth,
Apologies!
I left out the best part of the line in Grievous Angel. It shoulda read:
“Out with the truckers, and the kickers and the cowboy angels,
And a good saloon in every town.”
Thx,
WUL