Remember this week. It may foretell one of the more interesting years in ages.
Stock markets went nuts, of course. We’ve just seen some of the wildest rides in history with thousand-point gyrations in the space of mere hours. Investors can’t seem to agree if this is the Eve of Destruction or the birth of the Roaring Twenties.
Then the truckers rolled through. Roadkill everywhere, especially in the comments section. Most Canadians have worked cooperatively to get through the worst public health crisis in a century. Others whine and moan and now seek to divide us into ‘sheep’ and ‘patriots’. It’s a sad moment.
And, of course, we had shocking news from the central bank. Despite the worst inflation in decades, average people locked out of home ownership and an obvious mistake in monetary policy, our central bank sat on its hands. Its rate stays at an absurd one quarter of one per cent. At least for another five weeks. Then it all changes.
Regarding markets and financial assets, the best advice is to hang in there, fully invested. This year will likely bring more volatility, reasonable (not fantastic) corporate earnings, modest GDP growth, sustained inflation, higher rates and single-digit portfolio returns. Stay the course. Balanced and diversified, plus prepared for multiple CB increases.
As for the truckers, well, they’ll be forgotten about the same time they roll back into the hinterland. Pandemic restrictions are being unwound and the greatest impact may end up being political. The poor Cons played this one wrongly, and will suffer for it. Prime Minister Chrystia is not far off, and the pissy 18-wheelers will end up with some of the credit.
Real estate? Wow. What an interesting time we’re heading into.
Mortgages remain in the 2% range for now, and inventory is at the lowest point in memory. Maybe in history. Bidding wars have erupted again, new house porn is filling the media and the spring federal budget is expected to both stroke and slap the market. We anticipate cooling measures in the form of enhanced down payment requirements for investors and restricted use of HELOC funds. Big news since a quarter of all transactions involve mom-and-pop and amateur-landlord buyers.
But at the same time, the Libs have promised an enhanced tax credit for newbies to pay closing costs, a huge jump (25%) in CHMC insurance limit to $1.25 million allowing more debt and a new tax shelter (FHSA) so under-40 buyers can turn Bank of Mom loans into tax-deductible down payments. Suck and blow. Classic.
What do we expect now?
A sustained active market for the next couple of months, with rising prices and subdued sales due to crazy-low listings. Affordability will get worse for a while, then way worse after that. The Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark rate in the first week of March (maybe even by half a point), or it will lose all remaining creds. Meanwhile the US Fed is expected to lift-off in March as well. By Christmas most economists are predicting Americans will have seen four rate increases and Canadians at least as many.
CIBC economist Benny Tal had an interesting comment this week on the non-action by our central bank: ““It was really a PR exercise basically saying, ‘We are moving, without moving. We are not moving, but we are going to move. So, be ready for higher interest rates’. That’s the message as far as the housing market is concerned.”
A warning, in other words. So all those folks with variable-rate mortgages have a big decision. They took that financing because it was cheap. But by the end of 2022 they could have home loans at rates a full 1% (or more) higher. Not cheap any more. And while monthly payments usually stay the same, the pace of debt reduction falls. By the time borrowers face renewal at substantially higher costs in 2024 or 2025, it could be a bomb – particularly if a bump in mortgages has flatlined or reduced real estate values.
So do they bite the bullet, pay a three-month interest penalty and lock into a fixed rate loan while those rates are still reasonable? And how about prospective new buyers – should they absolutely get a pre-approval now and dive into the market?
The first question has an easy answer: of course. Pay it. Lock up. The savings over the next three or five years will be totally worth it as monthly payments chip away at the principal debt. You have a few weeks to get this done. Don’t squander it, as all loan rates will be rising with or in advance of the CB move.
It’s over.
House prices? They’ll stay elevated until listings increase and buyers find financing costs overwhelm their cash flow. It’s probably not far off. The anticipation of higher rates over the last few months accelerated a lot of buying decisions, and resulted in the insanity seen in markets like Kitchener-Waterloo. Uncommutable to the GTA, yet with a 45% increase in prices in a single year. Insane.
So 2021 is not 2022. Stock prices will not jump by a quarter. Covid fear will melt like the snow banks in April. WFH, nesting and house lust will dissipate. The real estate hyperinflation will pass. Restaurants and retail will open and thrive. We’ll relearn what normal means.
You might even like trucks again.
About the picture: “My wife and I have been reading the blog for years even while working overseas in Abu Dhabi and Thailand for 13 years,” writes Bob. “We searched for homes in Victoria pre-Covid submitting offers but due to absurd bidding wars and owners only moving forward with list price, we have decided to hang back and continue renting here in Edmonton waiting for the market to chill. Since the pre-Covid times prices have skyrocketed & as you have indicated numerous times the real estate frenzy it beyond insane.. would say its ‘Covid Psychosis’ Since you are now featuring puddy kattos on the blogs I’d like to introduce you to Scoobie. He loves his wet food (we refer it ‘to his crack’) in the morning. Scoobie is now well trained for his crack high five, lay down and dancing on his hind paws.”
147 comments ↓
“Prime Minister Chrystia is not far off, ”
She will never become an elected prime minister. It may appear like that’s the path they want but it won’t happen.
Garth, to what extent are these housing prices going to be sticky? Are we stuck with prices staying where they are? While rationally, I would think prices would drop with interest rate rise, all we’ve seen are static rates and significant price increases. What difference is a 1% increase going to do if everyone’s stress tested?
The federal policy is a bloody joke that won’t change anything for the better. It’s the usual empty-headed stupidity from the Liberals. Will we ever see prices connected to income again or is that finished forever? I know people say ‘it’s not different this time’ but maybe this time, it is different. Maybe those who don’t own now won’t ever. When people with 1% incomes can’t find anything that isn’t a disaster area to buy, how does it continue when nothing actually changes?
When productivity is based on a healthy middle class, what sort of future does Canada have if young people have no opportunity to grow businesses because the wages they pay aren’t connected to cost of living?
Happy Feline Friday!
Make yourselves smarter, let a cat be your boss.
We keep hearing about how the unvaxxed must pay their own medical freight. A much more Canadian approach would be to give us all our tax money back and everyone pays their own freight when they land up in hospital.
That way smokers, sugar eaters, thrill seekers, jabbed, unjabbed, or whatever your flavour may be, you stay healthy or pay the price.
Cat pictures on Saturdays only and we will call it Caturday, just kidding.
Like the cat!
Jeesh! This blog is like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail – Gets its legs chopped off in the comment section only to declare it’s only a flesh wound.
Keep on truckin’, Garth! (sorry)
Og
If the convoy was about lifting restrictions, now and forever, I might consider vocally supporting them. How we can have one of the highest vaccination rates in the world and yet still be crapping on small business owners and masking young kids in school is beyond ridiculous.
But it’s not about that. It’s simply whining about a mandate which just so happens to involve the USA. They’ll be forgotten by Valentines.
It’s over?
It ain’t over until the fat lady sings.
Am I allowed to say that nowadays?
You can thank Trudeau for screwing up the housing market and continuing to dither as it reaches absurd levels. He’s so beholden to wealthy Chinese businessmen who attended his cash for access fundraisers;;https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-trudeaus-housing-promises-still-not-materializing
Let the truckers have their protest. I can’t tell you how often the teachers held parents and kids hostage almost every 2 years with their protests and work to rule and no one labeled them as racist and misogynistic. This PM is not fit to run this country. We are about 2 years into this pandemic and so far government and hospitals have not increased capacity. One would think this was important last year but here we are. The unvaccinated didn’t hold us back but the lack of appropriate plans did.
Think what you like Garth and it’s your blog. Delete me or post it I don’t care but we can no longer blame unvaccinated for our problems.
And Willow the Cat just bought the White House… Now that’s a house purchase any old dog would love…
Some others may also be interested in todays YouTube video from Dr. John Campbell 21min
Data, we want it all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDxkloJ-4kE
Gotta hand it to you yesterday Mr. T for allowing a wide range of comments. Thank you for allowing opposing P.O.V.’s, especially with a such a strong P.O.V. as you present. Gotta hand it to you for sticking your neck out.
No wonder politics didn’t pan out. An honest caring politician do not last. Too much of a radical.
– Atlanta Fed already is showing contraction in the eCONomy….perfect cover for not raising rates.
– Truckers getting more support worldwide.
– Division in for/against comments here yesterday represent the country.
– It’s not the covid, it’s the debt and the cost of oil from here on out.
Let’s face it, whoever is in power now is in a no win situation. However, the leaders do themselves no favours at all by their actions….the truth is too much for the general public to handle.
Like Elvis sang “Blame it on Cain, don’t blame it on me.
It’s nobody’s fault but we need somebody
to blame.”
Remember we are in the first season of the new reality tv show “Survival games.” where people start expressing their frustrations, shortages become common and countries start positioning for the remaining resources left while inflation runs rampant….Guaranteed to be MUST WATCH TV.
.
Lower Brainland house prices Uppa up $50,000/month for last 1 year. Will never be down.. Who needs a regular job. Just buy in lower Brainland now!!
Interesting that there’s been so little coverage of the truckers in non-Canada media. Parliament surrounded & police calling in reinforcements could develop into something more than what folks are apparently expecting.
Nice kitty. All our Cat has to do to get fed is remain silent for 10 consecutive seconds. Anything more than that and it’d be total war.
Re: housing, there are plenty of things the Feds could do:
– tax domestic investors up the wazoo
– constrain funding sources (HELOCs, etc.) available for real estate investing
– ban foreign buyers and/or tax them up the wazoo
– introduce a beneficial ownership registry, so that foreign students with no income can no longer own millions in property (among other absurdities reported now and then)
– get rid of CMHC insurance for all but first time buyers of primary residences (why should the taxpayer be on the hook for the craziness we’re seeing?)
– work to ensure Canadian real estate is no longer a bonanza for money launderers/criminals
– tie any federal funding on housing to higher density construction
But you know what? They won’t do any of it, and if they do it will be so watered down with loopholes that they may as well not have. Because if they did take meaningful action, that would mean house prices would come down, and in present-day Ottawa, an asset price going down is seen as policy failure. Housing up 40% in two years and hardly anyone able to afford their own home? Great success! Home prices down 5%? Utter calamity.
Yesterday’s post No 369. I just can’t go over all those posts again to see which one I was responding to.# 291 may be the wrong number ?
What a gorgeous cat!
#336 – This whole “co-morbidities” argument is so unbelievably vile and sinister, it makes me sick. You are the real “sadistic sociopath.” SHAME ON YOU
_–++++++++++++
I feel so triggered now. I am going to go and CANCEL MYSELF. hahahahaha
Nobody said kill the oldies, for all I care u can live like the “boy in the bubble” for the rest of your life. And carry a vaccine IV drip if u want.lol
But the second you are requesting the idiot GOVT to destroy the livelihood of future younger generations, which they are happy to oblige, bc you are narcissistic hypochondriacs, and the largest VOTING BLOC, that moment you are a legitimate target of any normal, sane and educated parent.
AND there are many of us.
Trudeau plan in two, scare the Oldies/tardies and destroy the young.
Divide et Impera. That is in Latin.
Sell Now and go into 100% Cash or Cash + Bonds. You will not regret it. Stock Market is in the biggest bubble of all time.
I ‘dunno Garth.
I like the picture you paint so don’t get me wrong.
But reading Leger’s Jan 2022 Canadian Economic Confidence Report* gave me pause on 2 items:
1. 51% think that Canada is in recession.
2. 28% say their household finances are poor/very poor (68% very good/good).
True, it’s economic perception but recessions are 1/2 economy and 1/2 perception.
The perception now is recession and 28% is by far a larger number than what it took to bring down the US economy in 2007-8.
As for Covid-19 Canada will soon find out why BA.2 is called Stealth Omicron. Canada has just found today a few hundred cases…from what is happening here in Europe I will tell you this:
Brace.
——————–
* https://leger360.com/surveys/the-state-of-the-canadian-economy-january-26-2022/?utm_source=newsletter-leger&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=economic-report&utm_content=26-january-2022&mc_cid=ac394326c8&mc_eid=357dd3041a
https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Economic-Confidence-Report_CANADA.pdf
Garth…. time for you to take Dorothy out for a holiday in the southern parts of the world. You both deserve R&R without all this noise. Hopefully you can take your puppy with you, or have a reliable sitter.
Really Garth… it’s time… clocks a ticking…
I love and understand your eternal optimism Mr. Turner.
From your well earned perch and business that you are in, your comments are rarely if ever surprising.
At times they remind me of a Republican I know who financially was very sound and had strong opinions.
Of course they were based on his limited knowledge of the world.
I invited him one day to leave his cozy upscale suburb digs for a ride through the nearby city’s ghetto.
Naturally he had never been, nor had encountered many people outside his status group, thus his reactions were priceless.
Yesterday’s blog comments just gave you a hint of how the other half lives without the net worth that you have earned, the opportunities you were graced by.
Take time to cross the other side of the tracks for a day or two…it’s always good to learn what’s out there so your not surprised when people express their frustrations about inflation, feeding their family, etc.
Sail Away, I’m sorry that I made you feel personally threatened enough to respond that way. I had assumed that by commenting as myself it would be clear that I offer no IRL threat because of assured destruction of me. I have no interest in your life or meddling with it. I apologize. Have a good weekend.
East side of town Lucinda Williams
You think you must do god
But you don’t know what you talking bout
When you find yourself on morning bud
You can’t wait to get the hell out
You wanna see what remains on the [?]
You wanna see what gets you down
No, why don’t you come over
To the east side of town
You think your dog are mean
But you ain’t see nothin’ here
I saw things you never see and you won’t forget
You wanna see what the other half will
You wanna see how we’ve be round
Why don’t you come on east side of town
You got your ideas and your vision
And you say some simple thoughts
You look but you don’t listen
There’s no apathy in your heart
You make all kind of promises
And every party falls down
And now you wanna come shake my hand
On the east side of town
So why you don’t come find me
I’m on east side of town
Why don’t you come over?
On east side of town
Why don’t you come visit?
On east side of town
Come on over to the
To east side of town
Everyone’s stereotyping the truckers in insane unvaxxed and not proud Canadians. Majority of them are intelligent vaccinated men women friends and care a lot more about this country than the folks at the top like the government and polticized medical experts. We need to stop painting anyone who is tired of being locked down for over two years and tired of governments printing money to fund stocks and houses as tent cities pop up everywhere. Hospitals were jammed before Covid but no one seemed to care or want to address why so many people get sick with cancer heart and other ailments. Let’s stop and think before we speak. And no, rates aren’t going up in March. One and done if that. Enjoy the weekend and peace to all.
No point dissing the BOC, it’s Fed-dependent and will move in lock-step come March.
As for real estate, well, kinda think there’ll be more sucking than blowing. Squeezing HELOC’s will do more damage than you think – both the Bank of Mom and amateur investors depend on this source of funds for down payments and, especially if the Liberals have the audacity to require principal to be paid back, the party’s over. Coupled with a rapid increase in mortgage rates, it could be a stampede.
I admit to having a couple of real estate agent friends and they say that listing inquiries are off the charts, but it’s a Mexican standoff until the budget.
Hope you diesel heads back east get a chance to check out the “convoy”. The Merritt section has the worn out equipment. Too funny & us B.C.ers are getting a huge laugh. Bunch of stump ranchers, broken down truckers, failed prospectors, leathery women haven’t even hit town & lil potato has gone to his hidey hole. Don’t you guys back there have some kind of bunker or tunnels to bunkers or something from the cold war ? lil potato will be safer in there.
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Home buyers are already stress tested for 2% above posted 5 year fixed rate so unless bench mark interest rate goes over 4.5 percent they will be able to afford even on renewal if they stay on variable. If BOC is unable to increase by even 0.25 I doubt they will go to 4 percent by 2024. Only time will tell.
The stress test and cash flow are two different animals. – Garth
From Kingston Police this morning:
“TRUCK CONVOY UPDATE ⚠️ As of 9:35 am all roads have reopened and all trucks and passenger vehicles have departed #ygk and are now EB on Hwy 401.
Our count: ❄️17 full tractor trailers ❄️104 tractors w no trailers ❄️424 passenger vehicles ❄️6 RVs”
Just a shade under 50,000 trucks. lol
Still airforce black outs here in Europa.
All I could find was a lone Dornier over the Adriatic looking like it was headed to Aviano air base – flight from Cyprus into the great void that is now AVB:
https://i.imgur.com/IUkyH7w.png
Canada is giving more than $$$ to Ukraine (and yes, I waved towards the East along with a great big Woo-hoo!):
https://i.imgur.com/7vK8tuR.jpg
Ramstein void (Ramstein is a USAF base in southwestern Germany, HQ for the USAF in Europe, Africa and also for NATO Allied Air Command):
https://i.imgur.com/3fYhJbF.png
Understandable all of it.
Compare the AVB and Ramstein voids to the US (military aircraft):
https://i.imgur.com/hUxSR5N.png
The only thing with juice they were willing to identify were T38’s…was tracking a fighter jet but no ID.
And everyone steering clear of Ukraine except for the Ryanair Airlift to Kyiv (4 aircraft, 2 in, 2 out just before this screenshot):
https://i.imgur.com/pmN6IIK.png
It is unlikely that many people vacationing in Kyiv this time of year. Tried booking a flight to Kyiv at Ryanair (any time, any day in Jan) and no dice from TSF that flies there.
So you know something else is up with them. Also, a lot of Lufthansa flights into Kyiv as well, many also originating out of Hungary (France a few days ago vowed to defend Hungary if invaded).
——————
Plucky Irish, EU and Canada. Of course, with Uncle Sam’s might.
#25 – Oh, give it a rest, Billy Buoy. Your ongoing cackling is getting annoying. There is a variety of people on this blog, you don’t get to sermonize about the downtrodden…sheesh.
This PM is not fit to run this country. We are about 2 years into this pandemic and so far government and hospitals have not increased capacity.
_________
The concerns about our health care system are legit, but given that health is a provincial matter you might want to focus your rage somewhere else.
@#336 Forest Gump
“It is a well known fact that the older boomers are mostly sadistic sociopaths ….”
+++
Only when dealing with the terminally stupid.
Don’t think of us as sociopaths….
Consider it euthanasia.
Lots of parties in Ottawa this evening with people from all across Canada, exchanging emails.
One of our property assessments just dropped six fold!
Should I appeal? FOMO
#22 sell, already sold my equities last week, made my gains, 250% in 7 years and now with owing bonds, GICs making another 6% a year over the next 7 years until 2028, averaging 20%+ a year with all my money, no more stocks to be concerned about.
DELETED
Yo Millennials.
Get your paperwork in order.
CRA may be knocking
https://globalnews.ca/news/8542116/cerb-repayment-letters-canada-revenue-agency/
As you all know.
We Boomers have nothing to worry about.
We’re already rich.
Don’t need govt handouts.
:)
House on my street just sold for 700k. Big deal, you might say? Its 1000sqft. Has a yard so small you have to move your car first to enjoy it and its basement is unfinished…and half dirt. Listed as a condo alternative.
I look forward to meeting my new neighbors…where oh where will the conversations go?
Og
#22 sell on 01.28.22 at 3:31 pm
Sell Now and go into 100% Cash or Cash + Bonds. You will not regret it. Stock Market is in the biggest bubble of all time.
*****
It’s up there as the worst bubble of the last 100 years. But that doesn’t mean it can’t continue and/or get even worse.
The latest Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP forecast is basically zero growth. That will be the excuse for not raising rates in March.
The central bankers are never going to raise rates. That would cause pain for their wealthy speculator buddies. Far better to destroy the middle class/society instead.
As for Covid-19 Canada will soon find out why BA.2 is called Stealth Omicron. Canada has just found today a few hundred cases…from what is happening here in Europe I will tell you this:
Brace.
_—-+±++————
I am bracing myself for bouts of uncontrollable laughter…. HAHA HAHA HAHA
Except for the mentally damaged by media, normal people are done with this Covid shi.t
Garth I think you missed the mark yesterday. Doing what we can to end Covid is sensible. What if we ended mandates and made strong recommendations? As we know it is not really a choice if strong levers are applied to each person. By the way I am vaxed & an identified as essential worker, so not on the so called fringe. People may just want to get back to their lives. Quality of life is important not just the length of life.
#26 Faron
Should be fine. TSLA clawed back 2.1% of the 11.5% it lost yesterday.
It doesn’t matter.
People that bought TSLA 5 years ago are:
+1,583.61%
All for it. One of my ETFs is based on the Nasdaq 100 and TSLA is #5 on the list measured by index weight.
So, not only:
yeah oil
but
yeah TSLA
Jan 28, 4:33:40 PM UTC-5
A half point increase in March could happen, but we all doubt it. Should it. Maybe. But Tiff doesn’t seem to be too aggressive with the inflation fighting. Plus I think the big report comes out in April. So my best guess as of today is a .25 increase in March and in April, with more to come.
It is too bad in a way, the sheeple have had lots of warning. A half point increase would surely send a stronger message than the BoC has thus far.
#1
Exactly my sentiments.Like Paul Martin she plays great fiddle but would be a quivering type in power.Way smarter than Justin does not mean she would be more popular with the female vote—quite the contrary she may turn them off.But I guess if her ambition is to be PM and she does appear ambitious she might get the chance—but she wouldn’t be a long term PM imo.
Check out the whiskers on Scoobie. What a doll. His expression very poker-like. It says ” Look around the table and if you can’t spot the sucker, it’s you”.
This was a really good post: #351 Paul Heinz on 01.28.22 at 1:24 pm.
Lots of good points made, including:
“Absurdly incompetent PM ruling by decree from cottage, zero parlamentary oversight, just left-wing twitter mob calling the shots”., and ..
“Canadians seem to be sleepwalking into totalitarianism. If you think it can’t happen here you are just not paying attention.”
Given these comments and many similar ones on a daily basis it really begs the question:
Who voted them in? We just had an election less than six months ago. All the usual suspects voted the same old way they always do. So don’t we have the government we wanted and deserve?
The real suffering comes from incompatibility. Getting a lot worse.
To paraphrase one of my favourite writers..
” Being forced to live among incompatible people, whose acceptance of you, and yours of them is based on an enforced ideology of sameness, contradicted at every turn, with the resulting ethos a chimera – a nonviable composite entity that is ever in search of a means to destroy itself. ”
Can’t we just get a divorce?
#29 Leftover
Agree.
If the Libs do as said, it will not end well. CB increases will only exacerbate matters.
Though not statistically relevant, small sample size, STILL your “listing inquiries are off the charts” makes a person think either folks want to move up, or cash out.
After the Leger Survey I think not all is well in Dodge. More like cash out because they will have to.
Still saying 25% drop in RE prices mid year, maybe 35% by end of year. Over half of the people are thinking recession and far too many households in poor/very poor shape financially, 28%.
Could go either way but for today, it’s not looking good to me.
Canadians overwhelmingly followed public health’s advice for two years. They donned the masks, stayed home, watched Netflix, 90% got vaccinated, and people showed their papers to go out to the movies, eat or go to Costco.
The end result of all this compliance is everyone is going to get Covid-19 anyways. But because of these failed policies, we doubled the national debt, have the highest inflation in 40 years, missed untold cancer screenings, caused overdose deaths of despair, and shamefully violated natural rights, destroyed thousands upon thousands of small businesses. Public health and the government failed us completely. If Canadians kept following public health and government’s recommendations we’ll wake up 5 years from now with us still wearing masks and showing our papers.
These truckers have already changed the narrative. Now Ontario’s Medical Officer of Health is already talking about learning to live with Covid-19.
So keep on trucking!
#44 @Soren Angst – so funny it’s sad on 01.28.22 at 4:38 pm
Saving your Comment.
You have NO IDEA what is coming your way. NOT.A.CLUE. BA.2 is no cold. Hospital, deaths up all over Europa.
Give it a month or so, maybe sooner.
War on Small Business. He found the DMZ. Science in Kanada.
https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2022/01/ontario-restaurant-indoor-dining-allowed-toronto-airport/
“On Monday morning, while passing through Toronto Pearson Airport, Adam Matthews, owner of 72 Bolton Sports Café in Bobcaygeon, Ont., spotted a bar full of patrons.
“We walked by one of the bars outside the terminal and just did a double-take. And I’m like, there’s people sat there at the bar at the tables eating, drinking,” Matthews says.
“My business has been forced to close, my friends’ businesses have been forced to close and you know, everybody’s holding on by a thread,” he says
The province is allowing indoor dining at 50 per cent capacity starting on Jan. 31, but it is too late for many restaurants.
“I’ve got friends and colleagues that own restaurants that are hanging on by a thread, they’re actually some of them have closed down because they’ve lost all their money,” he says.”
—
—
Ottawa/Convoy. A good effort but it might be a distraction for what’s to come.
Is this setting up pretext – to protect the government buildings? From that silly “leaked email”:
“”
– Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.
– Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.
“
#26 Faron on 01.28.22 at 3:37 pm
Sail Away, I’m sorry that I made you feel personally threatened enough to respond that way. I had assumed that by commenting as myself it would be clear that I offer no IRL threat because of assured destruction of me. I have no interest in your life or meddling with it. I apologize. Have a good weekend.
———-
Thanks. I assume we can agree that accusations based on scientific quackery do not a productive discussion make?
Hi Garth, you said housing affordability will get worse and then way worse, if this does happen it would take a 40-50% drop in prices to even get us back to a semi-affordability level, people will be packing up to go to the US and a lot of young people will say what’s the point of working myself crazy when I can never own a house might as well then take the easiest job and enjoy whatever time I have left.
Well Garth I’m not so sure that this whole anti-mandate thing is going away anytime soon. Looks like its only beginning.
This week at my daughters old high school all the kids jump on the anti-mandate bandwagon and refused to wear their masks during class. It wasn’t a few kids or just a few classes, it was pretty much the whole school. We’re talking 1800+ students.
Like it or not, good or bad this thing has legs and isn’t going away anytime soon. Just my 2 cents.
Children can be childish. What’s your excuse? – Garth
Scoobie looks very distinguished and wise!
PM Chrystia said “No … can’t afford the increased interest on THE DEBT”. Tiffster kowtowed. BOC independence? I think not.
‘Scoobie’s expression looks like he is denying doing any dance of joy. That’s a doggy thing:)
On a conference call with siblings, one of whom was parked along the highway watching the truck convoy pass by. Wanted to witness history regardless of relevance! Not sure how fast the convoy was moving but said had been sitting for more than an hour watching vehicles pass by. Sibling held up phone at intervals so others on the call could see the action as we discussed family matters. Eventually had to drop out of call as had to move vehicle.
Even though the convoy won’t achieve the goal of being able to enter the USA without vaccination, I think it’s fair to state it is time to discuss ‘living with Covid’. Unless we’ve all been fed a line I’d say it is clear that Covid is endemic & that the virus will continue to mutate & pass through the population from now on. So those who get the annual flu shot may now need to add the annual Covid shot, with the same chance that the shot may not work if the latest variant that runs amok is not the variant the shot was developed to counter. If so we may as well accept that reality & reopen society while continuing to emphasize the value of washing one’s hands & staying home if sick.
Both the Fed and the BoC want the stock markets to correct, but they can’t afford an interest rate increase. So, they jaw about raising the rates, the markets correct, and they never suffer the consequences of raising the rates.
If jawing doesn’t work, then and only then will they raise rates. It’ll get messy when the markets realize this.
It happens in March. Patience. – Garth
Well, Scoobie is one handsome dude. My cat has long fur, too, but a different colour than Scoobie. His name is Baxter. Maybe one day his photo will shine on this blog.
If you want to talk about whining, look in the mirror. It seems there’s a lot of it here, whether it’s whining about low interest rates, horney millennials, fomo, or any of the other reoccurring themes whined about here.
At least the truck convoy is whining about things like freedom, vaccine bullying, and other things that seem to be resonating with a lot of Canadians.
52 Adam
These truckers have already changed the narrative. Now Ontario’s Medical Officer of Health is already talking about learning to live with Covid-19.
—————
Well first of all I wouldn’t say it was the truck protest that changed the narrative. It’s been obvious for year now that there will always be the tinhat antivaxxers that will provide a breeding ground for covid. Ya, ya, I hear you, “but the vaxxed can get covid too” – true but at a much lower rate per capita and with much lower viral load/transmissibility.
The public health measures worked as intended by slowing covid infection to the most vulnerable until vaccines could be developed and widely administered. But because we will always have 10% of the population refusing to get vaxxed we will always have covid floating around and mutating. So we are going to have to learn to live with it.
If that means masking up and denying the unvaxxed access to certain thing I am ok with that. And sorry tinhatters, wearing a mask and using hand sanitizer does not mean the lizard people, or Bill Gates have taken over.
Thank you for all of the sound financial advice over the years. Take care. Nobody knows the future.
ALL of our discord – across NA – is due to one thing (generally speaking) and that is the lack of hope.
If you think your future prospects are dimming, you get angry and look for scapegoats… the pandemic, and now inflation, are accelerating that feeling by 10.
#23 Søren Angst on 01.28.22 at 3:33 pm
I ‘dunno Garth.
I like the picture you paint so don’t get me wrong.
But reading Leger’s Jan 2022 Canadian Economic Confidence Report* gave me pause on 2 items:
1. 51% think that Canada is in recession.
2. 28% say their household finances are poor/very poor (68% very good/good).
———
And 92% don’t know how to tie their own shoelaces and would prefer velcro.
Gotta wonder how many of that 51% are passport holding CERBians.
#52 Adam
Ya’ll are hilarious LMAO “The Truckers have changed the narrative” Yes because that’s how our government makes public health decisions.
They were already planning on pulling back some lockdown measures for Monday. But yeah, keep telling yourself this will make any difference at all LOL.
#63 Jim
Yet, here you are.
“As for the truckers, well, they’ll be forgotten about the same time they roll back into the hinterland. Pandemic restrictions are being unwound and the greatest impact may end up being political. The poor Cons played this one wrongly, and will suffer for it. Prime Minister Chrystia is not far off, and the pissy 18-wheelers will end up with some of the credit.”
Well, maybe. It’s hard to tell how these things go. Right now it is inspiring shadow protests in Europe and even Brazil. It even made the Joe Rogan Experience. Musk is onboard. Most fires start small. I personally am not going to make any long term predictions. But I think we can replace “Groundhog Day” with “Trudeau Day” this year. Check to see if he can see his shadow when he emerges from the cabin. If so, 6 more weeks of protests.
The pandemic is ending whether Trudeau wants it to or not.
(Disclaimer: I am vaccinated. They even let me in to the most recent excuse for a Flames game, pathetic as it was both on and off the ice.)
GIMMEE A BREAK.
The Talking Heads are blaming the mess we are in on the Fed’s threat of 4- 1/4 point interest rates hikes. Gimmee a break. If the threat of 1% Fed funds are to blame, who ever is doing the blaming is Confirming and Admitting the fragility of these markets. Repeat, can’t handle a 1% rate hike with 7% inflation, something is wrong with this market, as in seriously wrong. The overindebted have signaled by their actions and body language that they actually believe there will be no serious consequences. maybe they are just young for their age. Sleep tight my beauties.
#33 Ustabe on 01.28.22 at 4:04 pm
From Kingston Police this morning:
“TRUCK CONVOY UPDATE ⚠️ As of 9:35 am all roads have reopened and all trucks and passenger vehicles have departed #ygk and are now EB on Hwy 401.
Our count: ❄️17 full tractor trailers ❄️104 tractors w no trailers ❄️424 passenger vehicles ❄️6 RVs”
/////////////////
truth be told I saw more than those numbers from my ride to Toronto from Niagara yesterday. and that was just the niagara hamilton bunch
#50 the Jaguar on 01.28.22 at 4:43 pm
To paraphrase one of my favourite writers..
” Being forced to live among incompatible people, whose acceptance of you, and yours of them is based on an enforced ideology of sameness, contradicted at every turn, with the resulting ethos a chimera – a nonviable composite entity that is ever in search of a means to destroy itself. ”
Can’t we just get a divorce?
———————————-
Ok, so who is the writer?
Been noticing for several years that my values are fundamentally at odds with what appears to be a new set of values. Not a negotiable gap simply incompatible values. Making me realize that Canada as a “Post-National State” may no longer be my nation and not merit my respect.
….but then maybe that is the intended results of all this?
“Others whine and moan and now seek to divide us into ‘sheep’ and ‘patriots’. It’s a sad moment.”
What do you expect when Trudeau himself does this. Either accept the official government narrative or you are cancelled from society, like the large minority coming to Ottawa. According to JT their “views are unacceptable”.
Unacceptable views if they don’t match the government view. It is pretty sad that Canada is starting to resemble the communist place I left long ago to come to free Canada for exactly that reason – no freedom of thought. JT gets to decide what views are acceptable. Absolutely deplorable.
And you wonder why the run on Ottawa… let’s hope it ends well.
I like the trucks.
Its time Canadians had some heart.
Old time hockey.
#43 ogdoad on 01.28.22 at 4:31 pm
House on my street just sold for 700k. Big deal, you might say? Its 1000sqft. Has a yard so small you have to move your car first to enjoy it and its basement is unfinished…and half dirt. Listed as a condo alternative.
I look forward to meeting my new neighbors…where oh where will the conversations go?
Og
////////////////
So what you are saying is you live in a shitty neighbourhood? Did I get that right?
“The Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark rate in the first week of March (maybe even by half a point), or it will lose all remaining creds. Meanwhile the US Fed is expected to lift-off in March as well. By Christmas most economists are predicting Americans will have seen four rate increases and Canadians at least as many.”
“Only the arsonist can tell you when the next fire will be.”
#57 Poutine Lover on 01.28.22 at 5:06 pm
Well Garth I’m not so sure that this whole anti-mandate thing is going away anytime soon. Looks like its only beginning.
This week at my daughters old high school all the kids jump on the anti-mandate bandwagon and refused to wear their masks during class. It wasn’t a few kids or just a few classes, it was pretty much the whole school. We’re talking 1800+ students.
////////////
+10000
this is good to hear
What would the effect on the stock market if Russia attacks the Ukraine?
#66 yorkville renter on 01.28.22 at 5:49 pm
ALL of our discord – across NA – is due to one thing (generally speaking) and that is the lack of hope.
If you think your future prospects are dimming, you get angry and look for scapegoats… the pandemic, and now inflation, are accelerating that feeling by 10.
*****
Yep. And they want us fighting among themselves, to distract from the pillaging that is happening in earnest. The future is being sold to speculators right out from under us. Greed trumps responsibility in Canada. The policymakers want an end to upward mobility. A landed gentry and a much larger pool of serfs – that is the clear way forward.
Thought experiment here.
-we all know now that the vaxxed and unvaxxed can still contract Covid
-we hope that vaxxed or unvaxxed will isolate if showing symptoms
-we also know that the vaxxed will more likely to show mild or no symptoms
-so for the fact that the vaxxed are less likely to show symptoms would they not be more likely to spread it?
Me, double vaxxed. Wife triple. Dogs nothing, we cross our fingers and pray.
FREEDOM!
–
Thank you muchly #60 Linda, for a little bit of calm, critical thinking, and thinking for yourself! Instead of following the mass herd on either side of the Covid fence. I hope Garth reads your comment! Cheers, Willem
They say that cats use their whiskers to determine whether they can fit through a hole. Today’s picture looks about right.
#79 Zach on 01.28.22 at 6:32 pm
“What would the effect on the stock market if Russia attacks the Ukraine?”
The stock market, like the rest of the world, will turn into a giant radioactive crater. Whatever game is afoot here, it isn’t that. At least not yet.
@#63 Jim on 01.28.22 at 5:39 pm
If you want to talk about whining, look in the mirror. It seems there’s a lot of it here, whether it’s whining about low interest rates, horney millennials, fomo, or any of the other reoccurring themes whined about here.
At least the truck convoy is whining about things like freedom, vaccine bullying, and other things that seem to be resonating with a lot of Canadians.
–
that rolling temper tantrum is the vocal minority.
thats it, thats all.
caught some of their sad little parade on the 401.
was amusing but quickly forgotten.
@#81 Penny Henny on 01.28.22 at 6:40 pm
Thought experiment here.
-we all know now that the vaxxed and unvaxxed can still contract Covid
-we hope that vaxxed or unvaxxed will isolate if showing symptoms
-we also know that the vaxxed will more likely to show mild or no symptoms
-so for the fact that the vaxxed are less likely to show symptoms would they not be more likely to spread it?
Me, double vaxxed. Wife triple. Dogs nothing, we cross our fingers and pray.
FREEDOM!
–
FREEDUMB in your case
#81 Penny Henny on 01.28.22 at 6:40 pm
Thought experiment here.
-we all know now that the vaxxed and unvaxxed can still contract Covid
-we hope that vaxxed or unvaxxed will isolate if showing symptoms
-we also know that the vaxxed will more likely to show mild or no symptoms
-so for the fact that the vaxxed are less likely to show symptoms would they not be more likely to spread it?
Me, double vaxxed. Wife triple. Dogs nothing, we cross our fingers and pray.
FREEDOM!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What a twisted attempt at logic!
You really think “unvaxxed” will isolate to the same degree as “vaxxed” when showing symptoms?
And you missed the part about “unvaxxed” being a major drain on our healthcare system despite being a minority of the population.
No one is FREE from this pandemic until and unless we work together which includes getting vaccinated. Yes, that means sacrificing by rolling up your sleeves (easy peasy for the most part). Freedom is not free.
Goodness gracious me.
Just when you almost forgot about the Liberal scandals ( WE Charity, SNC Lavalin trial, on and on).
While everyone focused on Covid.
Along comes this new “rank”ing for Canada.
https://www.alaskahighwaynews.ca/bc-news/corruption-in-canada-worst-in-a-decade-finds-international-watchdog-5001721
13th
Gee I wonder when our corruption index will intersect with our Health care ranking…..
Canada’s leadership….slowly turning us into a 3rd world country.
The accumulative monetary policies of the Fed these last 12 years have brought us to the brink where every investor needs to re-think and readjust their financial futures.
A need to distance from old complacent ways of doing with money as what’s been the norm and prepare in the next 9 months for the real tsunami of inflation that will soon kick in and is unavoidably coming will prove all too real.
The Fed can’t fix the inflation problem they’ve created. They’ve kicked that can irresponsibly down the road for too long and much too far for any solution other than what can and will bring economic calamity – and are leading us all unavoidably right into it.
Continuing with the ways that worked where investing in the stock market that worked well the past dozen years is about to change drastically.
Nonetheless…
The Fed has fashioned a kind of eye of the storm and relative calm…a wall of deceit we will likely sail through for most of the rest of this year.
The current subterfuge should hold for another 9 months or so in the markets…but a horror show on the other side of their last ditch effort smokescreen of too little too late planned measures awaits beyond.
Hundreds(or more) of screaming un-vaccinated idiots in close proximity in dry conditions. Perfect environment for a highly transmissible respiratory virus. They’ll be clogging up work and overflowing the wards if they hang about in town, we’re already full here, go away.
This is why we cant have nice things.
Expect this to be in the news in the next week or two.
also nothing will change in regards to border mandates, they wasted thousands of litres of fuel when there’s already a problem with excess carbon.
That’s entirely ignoring the catastrophic waste of money and resources to corral and control said parade of fools.
Let also find out where those large anonymous ‘donations’ to their gofundme came from.
@64 Reaity Check…
“Ya, ya, I hear you, “but the vaxxed can get covid too” – true but at a much lower rate per capita…”
____________________________________
Not according to the data (Ontario before the limited testing).
“With 59,259 tests processed…Of the cases logged today, most were found in fully vaccinated individuals at 8,221 while 1,514 were found in unvaccinated individuals.”
SO…NO reduction in Covid cases even adjusting for percent of population that have been vaxxed.
Here’s the link:
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-reports-record-10-436-new-covid-19-cases-three-more-deaths-1.5722139
Vaccines don’t prevent people who lack caution from getting infected. But they help prevent bad outcomes and death. What about that do you not understand? – Garth
I am an old retired guy and have seen Wealth One Bank of Canada has a 3.18% 5 year GIC, RRSP, TFSA special promo. It is not bad for a cash component as with compounding 3.38878% a year or 16.9439% total over 5 years.
I personally believe the highest GIC rates will be at least 3.6% to 3.75% over the the next 6 months maybe a little later or 19% to 20% total 5 year compound interest for one’s cash component of their investments.
Why would you put your money somewhere that guarantees a loss? Inflation is 5%. – Garth
what was the total amount of trucks that participated in the event?
Are they back home now or are they gathering for an extended protest?
After 2022 its still going to be the Fed’s choice, the only 2 choices left.
Measures that will lead only to massive out of control inflation.
or…
The kickoff to normalizing historical normalized interest rates.
Eventually it will be both… and in that order.
Hundreds(or more) of screaming un-vaccinated idiots in close proximity in dry conditions. Perfect environment for a highly transmissible respiratory virus. They’ll be clogging up work and overflowing the wards if they hang about in town, we’re already full here, go away.
This is why we cant have nice things.
Expect this to be in the news in the next week or two.
Brainwashed idio.ts on some posts
Totally off topic sorry, but hopefully it will get Fartzy into a rant.
Fartz, I just called my car insurance company to inform them I had bought winter tires and to get the winter tire discount.
-2017 Mustang Conv
-Full coverage including 2 mil liability, 500 deduct
-forgive and forget in case some A-hole pisses me off and I want to ram him/her (happens more often these days it seems)
– Total $462/ year
So it took a week to invest some money in my TSFA, even though the money was already in there.
Red numbers pretty much since last Thursday.
Today all the numbers are green.
I think I found a way to time the market…
M47BC
Pandemic restrictions are being unwound….
********
That dictator idiot in Quebec obviously didn’t get the memo.
DELETED
Very nice cat today, I like him very much! 10/10 fluffiness and excellent glower.
Thanks for providing some light on the dodgy CB moves and this insanely volatile market. Much appreciated!
My father, mother both came here from Trinidad have always been investing in guaranteed investment certificates and term deposits since the early 90’s and the same old mantra of inflation is higher than their interest rates on their cash investments, non cash investments RRSP, TFSA since 2009.
They have a house paid off worth $900,000 in GTA, RRSP worth $540,000, TFSA worth $92,000, cash investments worth $910,000 and they are both debt free for decades now. The funny thing if their friends, family members knew they were this financially doing well they would never believe them with averaging 4.5% over 31 years from now. They just retired and between CPP, OAS, $165,000 LIRA just transferred in interest from there before union pension fund goes wobbly and all other interest income a year they are $87,000 a year.
Most of they know try to make easy money, quick score, trading etc. and they are in debt, have investments that will probably, likely run out before my parents will. High returns of 8% to 12% a year over years are made by few and are now going to be there for most Canadians. If interest rates are 3% to 4% max, 8% to 12% are going to have to revert t o the mean and 6% at most will be the new norm.
Living life to only worry about dying is not living- Penny Henny 2020
Fully vaxxed and looking to get me some VID, natural immunity and all.
Observer and KLNR back underneath the bed for you.
The new headlines are “We have to learn to live with Covid”
Well…yesterday I told you about the lady contestant on Jeopardy and her depressed dog who didn’t like humans, but loved cats. (She won yesterday by the way)
Today…the family watched “The Pen” and “The Dog”.
That’s right, we’re running Seinfeld front to back and today was Farfel.
WHAT A MASTER PIECE! …of course.
“If aliens are watching this through telescopes, they’re gonna think the dogs are the leaders. If you see two life forms, one of them’s making a poop, the other one’s carrying it for him, who would you assume was in charge?”
If you’ve seen it, you know Jerry ends up with a drunk’s dog for a week, and it’s not a pleasant experience. It leads to this exchange:
Jerry: Going to the dog pound, everybody! Going to the dog pound, come on down. (To Elaine) What?
Elaine: Do you have to?
Jerry: What am I supposed to do? I don’t want to do it. I like dogs. I’m not sure this is a dog.
Elaine: You know, the guy might have just lost your number.
Jerry: I’m in the book and I have a machine.
Elaine: Jerry, do you know what they do to dogs at the pound? They keep them there for a week and then if nobody claims them, they kill them.
Jerry: Really? How late are they open?
As I said…Meow.
As we all know, boomers are the single worst generation that ever existed in the history of humanity. They are especially the most selfish. What young people did in the last two years (lockdowns, masks, social distancing, vaccines, etc.) for boomers, young boomers would have never done for their elders in the 60s, 70s, 80s or 90s.
keep on rockin’ in the free world, … man
#84 Nonplused on 01.28.22 at 6:59 pm
#79 Zach on 01.28.22 at 6:32 pm
“What would the effect on the stock market if Russia attacks the Ukraine?”
———-
The stock market, like the rest of the world, will turn into a giant radioactive crater. Whatever game is afoot here, it isn’t that. At least not yet.
———-
Haha. But unlikely. The Ukrainian president told Biden to stop causing trouble yesterday:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/27/politics/biden-zelensky-call/index.html
Hey, a comment I read that never occurred to me. I actually think it is very interesting way of looking at this issue that never occurred to me.
“ We should be applauding and thanking the people who are not being vaccinated as they serve as an excellent control group on the short, medium and long term implications of vaccines assuming of course that we are actually interested in real science.”
Why nobody talking about rent price.
Just have a look:
….These conditions fostered double-digit spikes in the average price of both one-bedroom and two-bedroom condominium apartment rentals, rising by 13.7 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively.
As of the recently-concluded Q4 2021, it costs renters a monthly average of $2,099 for a one-bedroom unit and $2,763 for a two-bedroom unit.
—> https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/01/toronto-rent-prices-spiked-double-digits/
This is real problem for economy. Pretty soon will be hard to find employee in cities b’s of that.
Government has no ideas how to fix it. Rent control should be provided totally and new rent rules established .
Children can be childish. What’s your excuse? – Garth
‐‐-
Commonsense.
So I was given 2 rapid antigen COVID test kits.
I think people are selling them online for decent money, but I’m going to keep mine for a special occasion.
I will use it on the next federal election night to see if I’m supposed to be sick for the next 4 years…
M47BC
#14 Billy Buoy on 01.28.22 at 3:16 pm
Gotta hand it to you yesterday Mr. T for allowing a wide range of comments. Thank you for allowing opposing P.O.V.’s, especially with a such a strong P.O.V. as you present. Gotta hand it to you for sticking your neck out.
No wonder politics didn’t pan out. An honest caring politician do not last. Too much of a radical.
– Atlanta Fed already is showing contraction in the eCONomy….perfect cover for not raising rates.
– Truckers getting more support worldwide.
– Division in for/against comments here yesterday represent the country.
– It’s not the covid, it’s the debt and the cost of oil from here on out.
****************
Saw the Atlantic Fed statement then remembered that they need to raise rates knowing full well that a recession is around the corner but better to tame inflation sooner than later they made that mistake before. The stimulus has been unprecendented. Do you think Biden can take the political hit that will come if he doesn’t get on inflation. Heinz just raised their prices again and how about the price of oil.
What happens when a recession does hit and rates are still at 0.25? Greed turns to fear under a different context. Context matters and we are no longer in 2018 times.
As for ALL those Truckers…where did they originate from? Why so few trucks? I didn’t see Smokey and the Bandit there.
As for the division, it seemed more like a wide range of opinions and lots of grey areas…that’s Democracy and that is the underlying theme of this blog and Garth’s good work on this planet.
“Trucker Vaccination Rule Worsens Supply Chain Woes, Kenney Says” Maybe he could ask the Governors to allow unvaxxed folks into the US.
Bloomberg
Hmmmmmmm. I think i saw a putty kenney…I did I did see a putty kenney.
Scoobie has a great set of whiskers! Now it’s time for me to show my lack of knowledge but can someone please tell me what a B & D Portfolio is? I’ve searched high and low for the definition and have come up short, no pun intended… The best I can determine is that it means “Boring & Dull”?? Many Thanks in advance.
#90 Cheese
“Let also find out where those large anonymous ‘donations’ to their gofundme came from.”
======================
It’s been reported that Jagmeet Singh’s brother donated 13K. And then asked that it be returned.
When will the comment section of this blog be updated
so we can reply to other comments directly under
their comments.
Never. It’s not an argument. – Garth
Someone wise said this started as a virus and mutated into an IQ test.
Most if not all participants of the karenconvoy have unfortunately failed.
“Not according to the data (Ontario before the limited testing).
“With 59,259 tests processed…Of the cases logged today, most were found in fully vaccinated individuals at 8,221 while 1,514 were found in unvaccinated individuals.”
SO…NO reduction in Covid cases even adjusting for percent of population that have been vaxxed.
Here’s the link:
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-reports-record-10-436-new-covid-19-cases-three-more-deaths-1.5722139
Vaccines don’t prevent people who lack caution from getting infected. But they help prevent bad outcomes and death. What about that do you not understand? – Garth”
——————
With this people don’t understand base rate fallacy, meaning there are 9 times as many vaccinated people in Ontario than unvaccinated. What’s even more interesting is that the 9% of unvaccinated are responsible for just over 50% of ICU capacity, meaning that if everyone was vaccinated there would be no need for any restrictions as the system would not be overloaded with covid patients. Go figure, the ones fighting for freedom are actually directly responsible for it’s loss.
Faron.
Whats up?
The James Bay Medical clinic in Victoria is the THIRD medical clinic to close in the last three weeks.
Most of the DR’s seem to be closing their clinics because they don’t want to deal with “face to face” billable hours.
Online medical consultation merging with larger companies seems to be the way Doctors are moving in BC.
Has the current govt system become too onerous and bureaucratic ?
More doctors shutting down their clinics seems to be a fairly good indication…
Doctors aint happy.
@#96 Pennies from Heaven
“– Total $462/ year”
++++
Thats all you’re paying for insurance on a 2017 Mustang?
My God.
Where do you live?
Turkmenistan?
#106 Salutations Sally on 01.28.22 at 9:05 pm
Scoobie has a great set of whiskers! Now it’s time for me to show my lack of knowledge but can someone please tell me what a B & D Portfolio is? I’ve searched high and low for the definition and have come up short, no pun intended… The best I can determine is that it means “Boring & Dull”?? Many Thanks in advance
B&D refers to a Balanced and Diversified portfolio.
Google this site for that, Garth periodically provides a tutorial.
Hey, Everyone:
When using HTML remember to close your tags.
#79 Zach on 01.28.22 at 6:32 pm
What would the effect on the stock market if Russia attacks the Ukraine?
**********
Good question…here’s another one.
How much does Russia stand to lose by starting a proxy war with NATO and losing the expected proceeds from the Nordstream #2 pipeline to Germany? Time to peel back the onion.
You and the blog bitches are the only ones I’ve heard doing any whining.
Keep stomping your feet little fella.
Better yet, get out there on your balcony and bang some pots and pans for some real Canadian heroes.
The pro mandate/ pro all the other bullshit side has always been about whining and imposing their will on the rest of Canadians.
The right side has only been asking to be left alone since the beginning.
Which is the more noble position? Hint: I’m certain that you and the blog bitches will answer this incorrectly.
#96 Penny Henny on 01.28.22 at 7:52 pm
Totally off topic sorry, but hopefully it will get Fartzy into a rant.
Fartz, I just called my car insurance company to inform them I had bought winter tires and to get the winter tire discount.
-2017 Mustang Conv
-Full coverage including 2 mil liability, 500 deduct
-forgive and forget in case some A-hole pisses me off and I want to ram him/her (happens more often these days it seems)
– Total $462/ year
*************
I’m in BC and my insurance went from $1100 to $645. Couldn’t believe it
, I thought it was a typo.
Why would you ram anything with a Stang?
#79 Zach
Why worry about something that’s not going to happen? (C) HBO Chernobyl
But seriously Russia engaged in 3 international wars since Putin. And so what? Unless you invest in Russian stocks, you will hardly notice it.
In any case we are probably good until the third week of Feb. Either that or no more Olympics in Beijing.
I lived in Ottawa years ago and if I was there now I would go nowhere near these protests. Why? Because I much prefer to associate with responsible mature adults.
@Matthew, post #104:
What you say is a bunch of rubbish. I’m 61 years old now and if this virus came along when I was a lot younger I would have done the EXACT SAME responsible actions I’ve done over the last 2 years. You don’t need a genius IQ to understand controlling of a viral disease. I’ve known what antibodies are since I finished Grade 2 in June 1969, and understood the general idea of how vaccines work by the time I finished Grade 11 in June 1978. Say, you heard about that new album Some Girls by The Stones? How about that song about my Maserati does 185, I lost my license, now I don’t drive?
@David, post #117:
I see you get it, where a lot of idiots don’t, even in this day in age of abundant information.
I hope you are wrong. There is so much complacency and fear, comfortableness for people in this country.
Even if you had freedom you wouldn’t know what to do with it.
Your comment about truckers is just unnecessary. Yes, it will create havoc and put more burdens but it’s nothing compared that created by the spineless politicians all across different parties.
People living in this country have become so conditioned to the idea they are incapable of having options. There are so many beautiful places in this world to live, much more relaxed and inclusive, yet we are stuck in this mindset, still pursuing an illusion.
Home prices are crazy, off the charts, they reflect nothing about real value and quality of life.
A place anywhere outside GTA is a million dollars. It’s like money grow on trees. No matter how you slice it, there isn’t always bank of mom, even people who profit from it and do a lot of house flips shake their heads and wish the situation would be different.
We are addicted to it.
Again, it’s your blog, your site, your rules, I don’t expect it to make it past your moderation.
Money Printer Go BrrrRRRRRRRR!!!!!
FED’S KASHKARI: A PAUSE IN RATE HIKES IN THE SPRING IS POSSIBLE.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/feds-kashkari-says-rate-hike-pause-conceivable-in-spring
Then the truckers rolled through. Roadkill everywhere, especially in the comments section. Most Canadians have worked cooperatively to get through the worst public health crisis in a century. Others whine and moan and now seek to divide us into ‘sheep’ and ‘patriots’. It’s a sad moment.
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Ignorant and Idiotic, much like yesterdays Post. Shame. The only fool out to divide us is PM T2 and clearly, You!
Sorry but the BoC says one thing and does the other. Just look at the facts. Rates have been dropping for 30 years, as in trending down, not up. There might be minor pops up, like in the next few months, but the overall trend is down – lower. Zero is not the floor. Negative interest rates are an option. They are behind closed doors right now already talking about the next stimulus package.
Lastly, the decision in the UK recently to cancel the pandemic and basically get back to the office and normal life as before is proving me wrong – I didn’t think this was going to happen, but – now it is because high level government have made that call. Just like that!
Canada will follow in the UK in the coming months and I think Vancouver and Toronto offices are going to repopulate quickly by mid year. I wish is wasn’t so and we have already set precedence that you can work from home.
But let’s face it – the Western economic model is about building cities and infrastructure like schools, airports and highways for these centres, and the energy needed to get around and having people populate them is at the core of economic activity. And just like dirty oil energy, it is impossible to stop this way of living anytime soon without sending the world into a depression where the lights don’t come back on.
Time to sell the remote property.
#1 CL…. right! A lot can unravel in teh next few months.
My bet? Carney is the choice.
Been away from the real world for a few days due to some ongoing family drama on the wife’s side, plus there’s that work thing…and the further frustration of trying to collate another mid-grade set of 71 OPC baseball in my spare time, and these bloody hi #s are killin me…
I do try to get my morning dose of Covid TV so I know whats going on in the world (and traffic/local weather) with am coffee binge and a few smokes, before flipping the channel to reruns of The Outer Limits…reality sux lately.
Noticed that yesterday’s raucous debate in the comments section hit the big time tho, there was a link to it on ZH fer chrisakes! I’m thinking if a mention of GF shows up on Lew Rockwell, all members of the steerage section will be obligated for the mandatory suckup…
Bypassing the Ottawa-bound convoy for now (looks like it was dealt with ad nauseum yesterday, and I missed it) thought I’d relate a story about 2 mature people dealing with the ongoing Vax debate:
A twice a year customer called me last week about lettering a couple trucks in southern AB, couple days work, about a grand billable; early spring timeline…after a brief dump on the unvaxxed running around infecting everybody, he inquired as to my vax status…Im one of those people infecting everyone, I replied.
Awkward silence (Im really not running around infecting people btw, been far too busy with family stuff when not fondling various OPC cards)
Would you get vaxxed to do my trucks? he asked; No, I replied…he says his entire shop is vaxxed, and he can’t have me in there working for two days without a valid QR code.
More silence…no worries I told him, your shop, your rules. Yet more silence…finally he asks if I can hook him up with someone else that could do the the work? Yup, you bet, here’s his contact info. (no idea about HIS vax status, btw) After some random convo we agreed to grab a timmies together later in the winter.
No “othering”, no stereotyping, no insults, no BS…exchange opinions and requirements and move on; its not a permanent deal breaker. FORCING people to do something they have made an informed choice NOT to do will be.
On a happier note, another great cat pic!
And more on topic, I’m wondering how soon these potential IR increases are going to be seen in decreased housing prices? Certainly no moderation yet in my neck of the woods (Edmonton area)
#76 Penny Henny on 01.28.22 at 6:17 pm
Depends what your idea of a $hitty neighborhood is.
Og
If China is so worried about Olympic “face”…
Perhaps ALL western countries should boycott the brutal dictatorship?
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/sports/chinese-media:-us-paying-athletes-to-disrupt-beijing-olympic
The entire school world must be turned upside down for one persons right.
https://theprovince.com/news/world/transgender-swimmer-lia-thomas-teammates-uncomfortable-sharing-locker-room-with-her-report/wcm/d58d537d-7efb-42a1-9067-a0c3f7a5c59f
Would the wealth-effect work in reverse if the above happens? Underwater mortgage-holders’ HELOCs slam shut, which results in no ability to further binge on electronics & vacation-spending in order to maintain GDP. In any case, I appreciate all of your commentary on the coming train-wreck of a housing sector…too bad we are too arrogant to learn from The Big Short movie.
#64 Reality Check on 01.28.22 at 5:43 pm
52 Adam
These truckers have already changed the narrative. Now Ontario’s Medical Officer of Health is already talking about learning to live with Covid-19.
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Well first of all I wouldn’t say it was the truck protest that changed the narrative. It’s been obvious for year now that there will always be the tinhat antivaxxers that will provide a breeding ground for covid. Ya, ya, I hear you, “but the vaxxed can get covid too” – true but at a much lower rate per capita and with much lower viral load/transmissibility.
The public health measures worked as intended by slowing covid infection to the most vulnerable until vaccines could be developed and widely administered. But because we will always have 10% of the population refusing to get vaxxed we will always have covid floating around and mutating. So we are going to have to learn to live with it.
If that means masking up and denying the unvaxxed access to certain thing I am ok with that. And sorry tinhatters, wearing a mask and using hand sanitizer does not mean the lizard people, or Bill Gates have taken over.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Time to reality check you.
It is not just a few vaxxed that are getting infected. In fact, since about mid-Dec to mid-Jan, the % infected *per capita* is higher for the vaxxed vs. unvaxxed. Not just absolute numbers (which has been the case for 2 months). No one knows exactly why, but there it is.
So the cold hard *reality* is that current “shots” do not prevent infection very much. So this continued (wrong) suggestion that the unvaxxed are the only well of people that will cause SARS-Cov-2 to stick around is *completely* false.
And perhaps having the virus mutate in vaccinated individuals is more likely to produce a variant that is even more resistant? Ever give thought to that, genius?
Vaccines don’t prevent people who lack caution from getting infected. But they help prevent bad outcomes and death. What about that do you not understand? – Garth
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What you don’t understand is what a vaccine is supposed to do. Every vaccine I have taken, prior to now, has PREVENTED me getting the disease. I might need to get a booster every 10 years.
It is *not* a vaccine. It is a therapeutic shot to boost immune response that reduces the risks (but does not eliminate them) of bad outcomes in those that are in the *risk categories*. They are highly tailored to the spike protein, and hence effectiveness is greatly reduced through any mutations.
You also imply that people need to get these shots, but also practice all the measures prior to having said shots anyways.
I am afraid you have lost the plot sir.
Garth should go to Kitchener, Waterloo, Guelph and Cambridge more often. Its where half of new immigrants to all of Canada go. Yes, half, the area is busting at the seams. crazy real estate offers, yes, because there is no supply, like really no supply, people dont move from the area, they work, raise there kids,educated and there kids live there raising there family. Adding a crazy amount of new arrivals is just going to make it even more expensive.
In terms of commutable to Toronto, well Toronto is not the centre of the universe, with home grown companies, work and educated people everywhere, like everyone in the area, under 50 have degrees. Its a very desirable place to live relative to almost any other Canadian area. I dont lock my car door in my driveway in my crescent, never had an issue in years. Man the stories in Prince Albert sask I can tell you, i had one person sleeping in my car when I came out in the morning, sound asleep in the back seat, not to mention breaking windows of the car, breaking in etc. for anything , change or whatever. and I locked it there, and it happens.
Many people drive down the 401 to the GTA every day as well, but with covid, remote work and home grown business’s. It will be its own home grown centre in 20 years. so yes, 1.5 million for regular house now, or whatever it sells for after the 15 offers and 75 viewings for each house. Dont get me wrong, I have millions in the local real estate market and I am happy, but since I was a kid I have no idea what the attraction of the area was.
Until I started travelling from NFLD to Van Island, and wow, now I know, not everyone comes from a good family, has an education, has services availabe if need be, etc, most of rural canada is a wasteland in all respects. thats why you can get a nice place in rural sask for 79K. for a reason , no one wants to live there.
But if your single and poor and no family, I recommend living in a small town in no whereville for 6 months and leaving the country for 6 months. Collect your cdn pension and live in a warm place for 6 months. I dont know why more people dont do it.
An easy google search shows TSLA traded between $932.50 down to $829.10 on 01/27.
Therefore, $829.10 < $854 < $932.50.
Faron man – this is getting sad.
@#136 Prince Polo
Interesting.
I spoke with a Millennial friend last night.
He bought a house in the Lowerbrainland for 1.1 million in Dec 2020.
Was offered 1.5 for it this Jan 2022.
He’s rejected the offer and has decided to “use the equity I’ve earned to finance another house purchase…..”
I told him he could lose both if this all goes sideways.
Utterly refuses to believe house prices will drop.
I guess Canada is special and contravenes the economic rules that have crushed real estate bubble believers worldwide for generations.
This will not end well.
Cat named Scoobie?
The stones on these cat owners reappropriating ethnic dog culture! Fantastic.
Just look at that cat. You know he smokes the pipe on the evening and plays chess. Do you have any doubts about the performance of his portfolio? Oh yeah? He doesn’t care.
In some ways Canada’s bubble is different. A significant minority of potential buyers have funding that is not tied to a conventional Canadian middle or upper middle class income. Canada is seen as a safe place to hold family wealth compared to what is the case in a number of other countries. The ownership is legit, a legal Canadian immigrant or their born in Canada offspring. But a good chunk of the money comes from the extended family still in the home country.
It puts people who are tied to a Canadian income at a real disadvantage.
In many cultures the family structure works like a collective organization. Money is pooled for the greater good of the family.
In the Western tradition we generally don’t work like this. At least within the ranks of Middle class and lower family’s. Each household {a married couple in most cases} more or less operates as a single economic unit.
The pooled resources of the non western family structure blows western tradition , individual couple, family’s out of the water when it comes to buying Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto real estate.
Also a big help that many countries have way lower overall tax rates than what a middle class earner faces in Canada.
Real estate prices aren’t going anywhere. RRSP’s are a joke. People want more. Buying a secondary place is better than RRSP’s and much less risky than the stock market and you can give it to your kids and your grandchildren and keep collected the rent instead of depleting your savings and leaving behind what’s left. Asking for a larger down payment doesn’t stop landlords once established. It’s easy to shift around equity. Taxing people with places above 1 million, landlords will just buy everything below that price. Play with the HELOC, we’ll just create a new product. Any expense to the landlord is going to the renters. We’re always ready for anything.
Re: #92 Gerard on 01.28.22 at 7:40 pm
The CDIC insurance is only $100,000. At Oaken its $200,000 as Home Bank and Home Trust are separate entitles. If you have money the only place you can put it is in the Manitoba credit unions and their rates at best today are 2.3 percent for 5 years.
Great read today Garth,
I went to the ‘protests’ in Ottawa yesterday to see for myself what it was all about. (I’m a local business owner) who has had my business closed by restrictions for over 400 days in the last two years [So admittedly I’m a little biased and frustrated] . And what I saw when I showed up was anything but what the media has been depicting.
What I saw was Canadians, of all ethnicities, cultures, careers, ages, and religion. Parents wanting their kids to have a normal life, kids wanting to be able to play sports again, doctors, police officers, and nurses laid off, veterans wanting the charter to be upheld, indigenous communities, immigrants, and every creed you could imagine. All coming together with slightly different perspectives. But for the most part with a sentiment opposing excessive ‘government control’. It wasn’t an anti-vax protest, it wasn’t a passport protest, it wasn’t a lockdown protest. It was a pro-freedom protest.
I live about 30 minutes outside the city, and I was shocked by the overwhelming number of people who are in support of ending these restrictions, and regulations on the people. Every bridge on the way to DT was filled with people, the Ottawa Senators parking lot packed, IKEA parking lot packed. And it was the most ‘Canadian’ and collective I’ve felt in a long time.
I really think if you put your boots on the ground, you’d have a change of heart. This was not
If you people would turn off the tee vee, with all its propaganda to coerce you into accepting the great reset that they crow, and I mean the Davos crowd, the world economic forum crowd, the young globalist crowd of which Trudeau and Freeland are part.
And the plan?
Destroy the little guy, the economy, your family and business. Take all property that has anything owing.
PAY IT OFF NOW, TAKE THE HIT. Market crashes from march. Oh and war.
Order out of chaos. Build back better, or 6uild 6ack 6etter.
You will take the mark of convenience to buy and sell.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/we-vaccinated-4-billion-people-and/comments