Okay, Monday sucked. For a while – until a thousand-point loss turned into 100-point gain in the Dow. What a ride. Through all this volatility, let’s remember three things. First, if you’re feeling moany about equity markets, spare some sympathy for the kids and their crypto. Stocks have shed less a relative pittance after hitting a record high. Bitcoin has been crushed 50%.
Second, people with B&D portfolios got a reminder Monday of why they are invested thus… when stocks went down, bonds went up. Preferred shares held.
Third, read yesterday’s post again. Corrections are normal. They are good. They mow the weeds, prune the trees, chase away the varmints and pave the way for growth. It matters not what markets did on any one day in any year. The point of investing is to finance life’s goals when they roll around. And given enough time, markets get over everything.
Remember when Covid hit? Stocks promptly crashed 35%. They recovered. We forgot about it. Actually equities swoon a lot. In 2014 commodity prices took them down. In 2011 it was the US debt ceiling crisis. Before that we had the 2008-9 credit crisis. Seven years earlier it was the dot-com crash. Before that, Y2K. And before that… well, you get the picture. If you go back in time and read the terrified comments scratched on the innermost caverns of this blog by early online humanoids, you’ll witness the same stuff, over and again.
Our recency bias is overwhelming. What happened in the last 24 hours (or maybe a week) we believe will go on forever. Trouble is, that’s never happened. Nor will it.
So was the end of trading today the bottom? Will investors start selling again tomorrow?
No idea. Sentiment is at the worst level since the pandemic started. The reopening, ‘Roaring Twenties’ trade got ahead of itself. The immediate catalyst is hot inflation and the realization CBs are definitely going to do something about it. Rates up. It starts in two days in Canada. Mix in Putin and pandemic, and poof.
Remember, however, that the global economy is expanding. We’re just in Year Two of a recovery cycle after the worst of the plague. Less than 40% of the world is vaxed, and as the Pfizer phlows more growth will come online. In other words, we are not going backwards.
But meanwhile the bears temporarily gain control. After ridiculous levels of speculation and vats of testosterone (Reddit, Robinhood, GameStop, AMC, crowdfunding, manipulation, NFTs and crypto) those who were leveraged, on margin, over-extended or just willfully blind, have smoke coming off their rumps. Hard to be sorry. But that’s human nature.
Reasonable people will show bemusement and do nothing. Some will buy and do well. Those who sell in a storm will suffer. They always do. I ran into a woman on the weekend who sold her mutual funds at a heroic loss in the tempest of March, 2009, and has been in cash since. We ran some numbers sowing there’s a good chance she’ll now run out of money before she runs out of life. Shocked. She was floored.
Also shocked are those who thought a correction would never come. And here it is. Way overdue. Stop whining.
Now, even more people believe the same of residential real estate. It can never seriously fall, they say. If it did, people would run in fast and buy up distressed properties a bargain prices in a blink. But housing lives in the same world as all other assets. It has been inflated by a decade of ridiculously-cheap interest rates, easy credit and accommodating politicians. The immediate catalysts have been virus, nesting, WFH and a wave of real estate speculation as 25% of all sales go to investors.
Could tis turn as abruptly? Surprisingly?
You bet.
“It’s showtime!” say economists at Scotiabank, who now forecast six Bank of Canada interest rate increases in 2022 starting the day after tomorrow. Current odds are 70% in favour of a Wednesday launch for a multi-year tightening cycle. This will be like the stock market correction – talked about forever but without many really believing it. The truth is that CBs cannot leave rates in the ditch. They fuel inflation. That destroys the currency. They create speculation and asset bubbles. They make income and wealth disparity worse. They punish savers and people on fixed incomes. They put society at risk if another economic downturn comes and the central banks are unable to drop rates. The evidence is legion that these guys are already remiss.
So mortgage costs will go up. At the same time little birdies (vultures) are telling me the feds are about to bring da hammer down on investors, with a requirement for larger down payments, a beneficial ownership registry and restricted use of leverage.
And the WFH/virus/move-to-Hicksville thingy? Fading in May. Gone by August.
In short, use your noodle. You may think this is about the stock market. It’s not.
About the picture: “HI Garth, it was really a very nice event the discovery of your blog back in 2016,” writes Francisco. “I’ve been reading every single article since then and it has definitely helped me in my financial decisions and those of my closest friends and family. Please continue with your hard work, it is really appreciated. This is Carmeline. Last week was the one year anniversary of her death after 9 precious years in the family, we really miss her deeply. It would be nice if she can make the picture selection.”
155 comments ↓
I’m financially ruined.
Havent even read the post yet, but EY has updated their tax rate sheets
https://www.ey.com/en_ca/tax/tax-calculators
“After ridiculous levels of speculation and vats of testosterone…” not to mention, Adele.
This looks like a market catastrophe coming down, and God knows how many wars we may be about to try to avoid. Messy times for sure.
The countdown to 100 million population is on! They have a live score dashboard.
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
…which is why we’re being prepped. Life in a crowded, fetid UN Smart City.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/draft-report-housing-task-force-ontario-1.6324869
“Why a 4-storey apartment could be coming to a residential street near you”
—
–Control over our feeding. The pictures of empty shelves in this Former First World Country.
Why always the meat? We know our elites want us off meat and eating bugs.
No so random shortages I’m saying. YEAR THREE of this planned #reset:
https://twitter.com/sunsaunaandste1/status/1485342188254990349
https://twitter.com/KatherineGlend4/status/1485313227676397575
—
–On the Economic Shutdowns.BTW in the USA there is no thing as “Capacity Restrictions”. He forgot the curfews.
https://twitter.com/Anthony__Koch/status/1485399663205355527
“I just left a game with over 65000 maskless people in attendance and no vaccines required for entry.
I return tomorrow to a land where I am required to show proof of vaccination to enter a Canadian Tire at 50% capacity and where it is illegal for me to have friends over.#cdnpoli”
Diamond hands, Apes.
I hope this correction does not bring back the gold bug-gers? It was so refreshing not to weed through all their nonsense lately. Gold has done nothing lately while the markets continue to chug higher even with corrections along the way.
In short, use your noodle….
Funny…:)
I needed it on the day like today.
Thank you Garth for always being strong willed and able to keep the things in the perspective.
Much appreciated !
Yep, not just about stock markets. Up next housies!
Low interest rates have been punishing savers and rewarding speculation for over 2 decades—-that attitude is about to change.In the 70’s and 80’s many never even thought about stocks(too many horror stories)and made out just fine in certificates of deposit—those days are about to return imo.This last big drop(it will continue)along with rising rates will ensure the shift.5-6% returns won’t shoot out the lights but they allow you to sleep at night especially in an aging demographic.(Inflation stings but people will just have to learn how to shop around—it can be done)
Yeah,
It’s Showtime!
Bring on the “Roaring Twenties Part II”.
I think enough folks got a taste of life in hicksville and told enough of their friends that it’ll try to have legs. Don’t know how they’ll do it, but I don’t apply logic and reason to limit the things Canadians will do to own a home anymore. They’ll basically do anything. I’d much rather they all just stayed within the confines of the GTA though, so hopefully Mr. T is correct and most get called back to their cubicles.
Here’s hoping everything blows to hell. I want to like my fellow Canucks again. If not, there’s always Northern Ontario and the East Coast. I wish I was fluent in French because Northern PQ is nice too.
VIX is part of the fuel for relief rallies. Leading to the US election in 2020, VIX climbed as worry about election nonsense grew and folks bought insurance on the S&P 500. Once the event had passed (despite there being a little nonsense) the relief rally was immense partially fuelled by the options positioning corresponding to a high VIX that had to be unwound.
VIX almost hit 40 today, similar to election time. So, seeing a sharp retrace of the lows of the day. unlike last week when VIX was fairly quiet probably having a lot to do with VIX monthly options expiring. S&P up 3% off the lows now.
Also, go back and look at what daily RSI in the 20s means for the indexes. In the COVID crash, it lead to a week of stability before the next leg down. Other times, it’s marked the turnaround mark.
I still think that the market is looking to rebalance out of the fraud/meme/profitless garbage stonks and it wont stabilize until there’s a good bit of fear there. However, there are a lot of big names that are 50% or more off of their high, so maybe that’s been taken care of for now?
For RE, here is something to think about. Do you really think houses didn’t correct lose value over the last few days?
Don’t confuse price with value. Imagine we could plot a chart of house true values over the last few years? Would it look like a bunch of straight lines connecting OREA frankennumbers? Not a chance. Nothing looks more alien to nature than a straight line or a bus stop poster realturd.
Minute quotes of house value virtually exist and do look like geometric brownian motion. Thing is they are not observable. What we see reported is based on price, not on value. The number of transactions for RE that result in price discovery is so low, the transactions take such a long time and are done in a way that makes it look smooth. Imagine we judged stock market value based on monthly or quarterly quotes.
If people saw that today they lost, say, 40 grand on their 1 mil house, they’d freak out and list immediately. But they are ignorant of the value volatility, so they don’t have the same fear as that poor soul who sold in 2009.
Dear Garth ,
we are absolutely going down a dark path , my friend . I am sticking with a B&D portfolio but if war starts , and that warmonger Biden ( well , maybe his handlers) will make sure to give it a big push , that too will succumb to the markets. I am really looking to head for the woods and take a break from society for a while
Just got over a 4 day COVID, Cold, Flu.
Not tested, they don’t do this any more in BC.
Felt like your average winter cold.
In any case, I’m glad I had my flu, and COVID booster shot.
Cover all the bases, they say.
It’s just like having a B&D portfolio, which is also holding up well.
Next up is the Shingle vaccine. 2 doses.
I heard Shingles is like burning in hell.
Much worse than COVID.
Vaxxed to the hilt.
That’s Ponzie, always ahead of the crowd.
No vaccine against CEF, yet, though.
BUY THE DIP!!
Just a minute now Jake. Your starting to tread on one of my primaries in the 6G portfolio. Gold Guns Girl Garden God & Garth.
Showtime my buttocks:
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1485717923754827780
In my twenties I had a goal: To not work in a 9-5 purgatory past 45yo. Surpassed this goal by about 4 years. Baby steps people. You made breakfast? Boom! Goal achieved. Lets hug!
Last week a head hunter called me about a position he thought I would fit nicely into (rep. must reach farther than I though). After a few pleasantries like ‘when hell freezes over’ and ‘sure, when every neuron is mapped’ the conversation turned to how I retired at such a young age with 10-pack abs? So, I asked him what his goals were…crickets. In fact, most peoples idea of achievement are probably as trivial as the “buy now” button on amazon – goal achieved!
Our society should be labelled as “the great Dupe”…goals of today? A house? Ya, if you’re a masochist. Teslyaaaaawn? Ask yourself why? Is that YOUR goal? Or the goals of highly consumer centric, growth oriented culturalization of narrow minded human cattle?*Og*
Today’s goal – Hug an anti-vaxxer.
Og
An up day on the markets… surf those waves!!
Apocalypse where are ya bro!!!???
Are we all gonna die? Will I have time to get some brew before the LCBO closes?
Bull markets make you money.
Bear markets make you RICH.
“…you’ll witness the same stuff, over and again.”
So true.
Basically sell early in the year at a premium, buy late in the year at a big discount. ’87, ’90.
Same for ’81 except wait a year. History repeats.
————————
LAZARUS. PHOENIX ASHES.
2207 h CET
Dow +0.29%
S&P 500 +0.28%
Hopefully soon to be saved by the bell.
…and, yeah oil.
Nice turnaround in the Dow today; yup, the sky is falling.
What a complete and utter JOKE.
Rates haven’t raise a .000001 in North America by a Central bank and ALREADY the odds of any rate hike have dropped SUBSTANTIALLY.
See all it took was a tiny drop and all bets are off.
Mr. Turner, you still think my 2 rate hike call is silly?
After today’s JOKE of a cough market, let’s see if anyone has the nerve to actually even do ONE hike.
The PPT out in full force today. FREE markets? IMPOSSIBLE.
The eCONomy can’t take getting off the financial heroin.
INFLATION to the moon. THE FED and fellow central banks DO. NOT. CARE.
They want it ALL. 100% ALL OF EVERYTHING and will destroy EVERYTHING in their goal.
Today was the biggest joke on humanity of all times…hope you had the time to witness the charade.
Looks like a nice dip to buy more brain dead index funds. Added some SPY and VGRO to the TFSA. History will tell.
Beware the hopium of thinking covid will fade by the spring and disappear by the summer. There will be more waves to come.
Now the ‘stealth’ subvariant BA.2 which is even more transmissible than Omicron is rising in Europe and may be here too soon (if it isn’t here already – how will we know as public PCR testing has been widely curtailed?)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/new-covid-variant-ba2-omicron-b1999247.html
Until the world makes a concerted effort through global vaccination AND targeted measures to crush community transmission, we will be on the covid roller coaster indefinitely.
Why covid will never become endemic: https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/01/15/why-covid-19-will-never-become-endemic/164216520013155
Omicron is not mild in all. The problem is it is so infectious it will sicken way more people, finding those who are not protected and filling hospitals as a result and resulting in delayed lifesaving procedures and surgeries. Our universal health care system is under serious threat.
Covid is not a respiratory virus. It infects multiple organs and systems including the brain:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/colin-furness-covid-vaccine-kids-1.6319438
s
On days like this, TSE always lags the fall and lags the rise. Delayed copy cat.
Pretty easy to see when to buy CDN, therefore, but I yawned at the certain uptick.
My wife’s TSFA is unmolested, I’m all unbalanced being cashed out of my equities. It’s fun.
Mr. T:
Please do an updated version of today’s post.
The BEARS are NOT in control. The so called BEAR market couldn’t last for more than A DAY.
EVERYTHING BUT OIL IS NOW GREEN. YES GREEN.
THE FED IS IN CONTROL and ALWAYS WILL BE. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS> NADA> NOTHING>
FOREVER until it blows everything in it’s path to smithereens….
SP500 and Nasdaq closed up?
https://www.saltwire.com/halifax/news/local/covid-deal-pays-out-65-million-to-nova-scotia-doctors-100683751/
Hold on GT – If I’m hearing you correctly
‘ The truth is that CBs cannot leave rates in the ditch –which they did for far too long
They fuel inflation — which they love (inflate or die is the banks’ M.O.
That destroys the currency – in which they don’t care
They create speculation and asset bubbles — for their 1% friends
They make income and wealth disparity worse — again for their 1% friends
They punish savers and people on fixed incomes — which they hate
They put society at risk if another economic downturn comes and the central banks are unable to drop rates — which they have planned and thus why they must hike to lower them again, soon after.
So how many years do you suspect the Great Deflate will last?
Hey Garth,
I have been focusing on the bigger picture recently. Look at stocks once a month, get an idea of whats going on through your blog but really stay away from the day to day stuff. Who cares about today if you are balanced.
My question is cost of goods and inflation… I use to work in a good quality retail furniture chain. Mid priced good value, don’t have to throw it out in 4 years ect. The pricing for furniture and other goods has gone through the roof. Pre pandemic a container of goods would cost 2500 USD from Asia. We could fit 64 cbm of goods and the freight cost for a big leather sectional might be $400 per piece. Now the rates are $15000-$20000 for the same container. The cost of freight is now more than the first cost of the product. This has to be killing any market that is importing and I can’t see how this is not going to lead to significantly increased inflation unless these shipping rates come down. I like the idea of more manufacturing in Canada which could be competitive but I am so perplexed by the amount of smaller retail that will be wiped out due to the increased costs leaving only walmart, costco, amazon and the like replacing small businesses. Do you see this happening as inflation grips the economy with wages stagnating?
serious question;
do people who voted for Trudeau have any regrets? if so,WHY?
thks
:)
Quicky Stealth Omicron, BA.2 update.
Denmark.
Variant “market share” chart and hospitalizations chart.
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1485568241900695555
—————————-
Americani…
Anyone that’s been to Dublin will tell you the guys just being typical Irish:
Irishman busted for refusing to wear mask, mooning Delta flight attendant, passengers: feds
https://nypost.com/2022/01/23/irishman-busted-for-refusing-to-wear-mask-mooning-delta-flight-attendant-and-passengers/
20 years in jail threatened.
#12 IHCTD9 on 01.24.22 at 3:30 pm
If not, there’s always Northern Ontario
————–
Nope….sold out here too!
Here in the great white north, off grid housing has really taken off. There is a huge demand for lots in unorganized townships as taxes are dirt cheap and few rules apply. Of course they don’t have their own garbage dumps or other niceties but people just love the idea of living on the cheap. Temiskaming is dealing with three new communities being advertised in unorganized townships with the promise that building codes do not apply. If you check out the website you’ll see it’s been sold out.
http://www.borealvillages.ca/#:~:text=Boreal%20Forest%20Medieval%20Villages%20(BFMV,looking%20to%20live%20off%2Dgrid.&text=Our%20purchase%20formula%20is%3A%20Waterfront,with%20no%20municipal%20planning%20boards.
The wife and I live in the middle of nowhere north of Temiskaming and within a few miles I see folks living in shanties, trailers, and even tents. It’s rare indeed to see a for sale sign anymore. It was -30 here this morning. Sure hope they don’t have kids living with them, and let’s hope they have a five star sleeping bag.
Something I heard the other day was that there was a lot of short term bond issuance (1 – 5 years) by the Canadian bond market to fund the deficit over the past 2 years. The BOC was buying these bonds up to drive down the yield. What happens when these bonds need to rollover and the BOC is no longer buying bonds ? Yields will go up because buyers will demand higher returns (absent BOC buying).
As yields go up, so will mortgage rates as cost of funding increases. If short term GIC yields 4%, everyone will start taking money out of their bank accounts to go buy GICs. It might not matter what the overnight BOC rate is after all.
Correction? What you talkin’ ’bout, Willis?
Irishman busted for refusing to wear mask, mooning Delta flight attendant, passengers: feds
…….
lol. the gig is nearly up with the little bug. catastrophic failure of public health/politicians
they closed businesses 2 yrs later with vaccines/boosters /masks available?
enough, we needed a Churchill but we got a trudeau instead(voted in TWICE, LOL!) . Reap what u sow Canada.
There is chaos under heaven and the situation is excellent.
Things on the market look fine now 1:45 B.C. time.
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SAYS WORKING WITH UKRAINE TO MAKE SURE RUSSIAN FORCES SHOW VALID PROOF OF VACCINATION BEFORE INVADING UKRAINE
This little market event is a nothing burger so far. Just normal “mowing the lawn”. Still no good deals out there on blue chip value stocks. If this carries on for another month or so we might get some deals out there. But that is doubtful imho.
#10 Big Bucks on 01.24.22 at 3:21 pm
Low interest rates have been punishing savers and rewarding speculation for over 2 decades—-that attitude is about to change.In the 70’s and 80’s many never even thought about stocks(too many horror stories)and made out just fine in certificates of deposit—those days are about to return imo.This last big drop(it will continue)along with rising rates will ensure the shift.5-6% returns won’t shoot out the lights but they allow you to sleep at night especially in an aging demographic.(Inflation stings but people will just have to learn how to shop around—it can be done)
———————————————————-
My guess is you’re wrong. The CBs will keep printing and pumping the asset rich at the expense of the paycheck earning low-life deplorables. It won’t change until there’s a political change and the dementia patient has finished Jimmy Carter’s 2nd term, and maybe some change up north?
Then the pain required to get back to anything resembling a sound currency will be as hard or worse than the early ’80’s.
Talk about the roaring 20’s?
Its gonna roar in the 20’s alright. Some good investment now would be state of the art security systems, guaranteed to spike in demand and value.
The chaos is building with supply shortages becoming endemic. Store shelves emptying. Many items looking to become in permanent short supply or ended altogether. Street crime, violence, robberies, muggings, home invasions, homicides… all up exponentially and set to explode. Ain’t seen nothing yet….Canada not immune.
#7 Jake on 01.24.22 at 3:15 pm
you’re out of luck. it’s about to explode
My guess is you’re wrong. The CBs will keep printing and pumping the asset rich at the expense of the paycheck earning low-life deplorables. It won’t change until there’s a political change and the dementia patient has finished Jimmy Carter’s 2nd term, and maybe some change up north?
Then the pain required to get back to anything resembling a sound currency will be as hard or worse than the early ’80’s.
——
yup, N America has gone the path of Japan. We must learn from Japan and have kids/immigration to fuel the gross fiscal irresponsibility
Under Trudeau ? has spent more than ALL previous PMs COMBINED. let that sink in fellas. This country is not the same, tremendous balance sheet damage. but as long as it doesnt hurt anyone in the pocket book short term, who cares? Trudeau certainly doesnt….busy counting cases :)
Thinking about what Doug said yesterday about trimming growth stocks for value stocks.
Only stock I had that actually gained today, +0.36%, was my Nasdaq 100 ETF – a mix of value, growth and in between stocks (not biased either way).
Says something about being diversified instead of vested in single stocks.
B&D works.
Thank you Turner et. al.
And yeah oil (ETF lost $0.01 off its share price today, ETN no change – glad for that Mr. Market mercy).
See what happens tomorrow…
I’m good with the CB raising rates, though I’m sure it will cause plenty of folks some sleep. About the possible drop in RE, I’m wondering whether the resumption of immigration is going to keep the housing supply tight, which in turn would keep prices from dropping. Folks have to live somewhere.
“At the same time little birdies (vultures) are telling me the feds are about to bring da hammer down on investors, with a requirement for larger down payments, a beneficial ownership registry and restricted use of leverage.”- GT
‘God is in the details.’ (Nietzsche). Those never seem to be available from our Federales. Only broad, sweeping statements that reek of ‘chicken hawk talk’.
The vanity and grandiosity of such statements is only exceeded by their naivety. The perps are already miles ahead of you.
Carmeline’s expression says it all….” Ya gotta be kiddin’ me..
Carmeline’s sweet face shows her love of being with her family. Condolences on her loss. It hurts like hell I know.
Husband’s guessing investors will buy in–big time–tomorrow. But he also thinks we don’t need a new roof. *grin*
#33 I’mshort_corpdebt
“They put society at risk if another economic downturn comes and the central banks are unable to drop rates — which they have planned and thus why they must hike to lower them again, soon after.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
The Fed at any rate is not going to raise rates enough in 2022 to bring on an economic downturn. Their smoke and mirrors play will have virtually little to no effect on stalling inflation in 2022 either.
The paltry 3 individual quarter point rate increases suffice now in their world bag of tricks as a dis-inflationary throttle down on inflation that will merely get them through another year.
Lowering rates again doesn’t look likely as unprecedented debt levels begin to change the rules .
bubblettes?
https://pressprogress.ca/conservative-mps-photo-of-empty-canadian-grocery-store-actually-taken-in-northern-england-not-canada/
Canada Proud’ Claims This Photo of an Empty Grocery Store Shows Life Under Justin Trudeau. It Was Actually a Snow Day.
#40 fred on 01.24.22 at 4:43 pm
Irishman busted for refusing to wear mask, mooning Delta flight attendant, passengers: feds
…….
lol. the gig is nearly up with the little bug. catastrophic failure of public health/politicians
they closed businesses 2 yrs later with vaccines/boosters /masks available?
enough, we needed a Churchill but we got a trudeau instead(voted in TWICE, LOL!) . Reap what u sow Canada.
———————————–
The gig is already up. Media is pivoting to the covid is ending narrative. The only issue is, how are they going to undue all the fear. It’s easier to fool people than convince them they were fooled and to move on…. There are serious structural psychological issues that will be difficult to unwind. Buckle up for the lawsuits and public inquiries coming.
bubblettes?
https://pressprogress.ca/conservative-mps-photo-of-empty-canadian-grocery-store-actually-taken-in-northern-england-not-canada/
Canada Proud’ Claims This Photo of an Empty Grocery Store Shows Life Under Justin Trudeau. It Was Actually a Snow Day.
………..
need a picture of the hundreds of small busineeses Trudeau destroyed
2 yrs later–we have the vaccines galore in various flavours actually, boosters, masks for the overly frightened …and yet….yet….. he shutting down businesses and leaving the walmarts and costcos open? what’s up with dat?
STOCK MANIPULATION ? TELL ME IT AIN’T SO.
Meanwhile back in the real world, inflation is crushing the Wee Little People who have absolutely zero exposure to the vaporware stock companies. All overlaid on recent abuses of credit. They are gambling with unprecedented drunkenness with our future. This is probably one of the most comical things I’ve seen in my life. Such an obvious massive market manipulation has seldom been seen before. And as my mom used to say “it’s all fun and games until someone gets their eye put out.” Sleep tight my little beauties.
No food shortages here in Italia. Shelves full. Went shopping today.
Having said that, Italians eat seasonally & have the natural advantage of stuff grown year round courtesy of Puglia, Calabria and Sicilia.
That is to say, you cannot get avocados, kumquats here year round. Nor do we buy franken produce from Holland. Just GMO free stuff. Just what’s in season.
Helps a lot. Also, small country so transport costs low.
Italia inflation projection for 2022 is 2.8% to 3%.
Now how you do that in Canada I do not know.
You can start by eating seasonally and producing more locally (yes, yes, it’s freezing in Winter but heck, if you can grown Cannabis year round why not…). And not depending upon the vagaries of other countries across the World for your food supply.
The other thing I don’t get is how a country rich in energy like Canada can have such large increases in its cost.
Boggles my mind.
“Mix in Putin and pandemic, and poof.”
Wait… What???
Putin, me thinks, has a lot less to do with anything than the fake news would have us believe. This is another case of “one screen, two movies”.
The movie the fake news would have us watch has a menacing Putin about to invade poor little Ukraine for who knows what reason and this should be of major concern to everybody, even folks in Texas.
But the movie on the same screen forces one to reckon with the fact that if Putin wanted to invade Europe, he’d already be in Berlin, and there wouldn’t be a damn thing anybody could do about it without resorting to nukes. All sending “lethal aid” to Ukraine will do is provide Putin with some legitimate military targets, which Ukraine at present sorely lacks.
The other question that nobody seems to ask is why on earth Putin would want to invade Ukraine. They have nothing Russia lacks. Of course taking him at his word that there will be no short range NATO missiles pointed at Moscow in Ukraine is beyond comprehension.
So anyway don’t lose too much sleep over the imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. It probably won’t happen, and if it does it probably won’t affect North America much.
Now Taiwan on the other hand…. You think the supply chain problems are bad now? Imagine no computer chips at all for anything at all for 2 years or more.
Buy all the things. Ya, even a used car if you need one. Who knows what they are going to cost in one year, if you can even get one. Who knows, maybe in one year the inflation is over and used cars are cheap. But as with all things unknowable, one should consider both potential outcomes.
#54 jess on 01.24.22 at 5:37 pm
bubblettes?
https://pressprogress.ca/conservative-mps-photo-of-empty-canadian-grocery-store-actually-taken-in-northern-england-not-canada/
Canada Proud’ Claims This Photo of an Empty Grocery Store Shows Life Under Justin Trudeau. It Was Actually a Snow Day.
————–
Excellent example why you should never trust Mr. Google.
Always verify by doing your own research.
Lots of reputable sources out there.
Don’t be lazy.
What an incredible job today by the plunge protection team.
I can’t ever remember the dow being down by 1100 points mid day only to finish the day a couple of hours later in the positive LOL
The market really hates the idea of rate hikes. You would think as things are improving and economic activity should bounce that the market would be happy, but nope.
That is because the stimulus punch bowl being taken away is more powerful than any pandemic. The stimulus punch bowl IS the market.
Nope. Rates will rise. So will markets. We fully expect the year to contain four Fed hikes and a positive outcome for major indices. – Garth
#28 Hurtin’ Albertan on 01.24.22 at 4:14 pm
“Covid is not a respiratory virus. It infects multiple organs and systems including the brain:”
It affects the brain all right but the main transmission mechanism seems to be the fake news.
Covid is over. We won (mostly). And all in I am not sure it was any worse than AIDS. We seem to forget that so far that one has killed 33 million people and is still getting up to a million a year. It may never go away. But we live with it.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/how-many-people-have-died-of-aids-48721
I don’t know why politicians interfere where, if left alone, the market would sort everything out. So, some people like to invest in real estate. So what? Dreaming up regulations and rules just to accommodate the millennials (which hasn’t worked anyway) is a waste of time and money. Forcing people who own a second property in BC to pay a “fee” because the owner is non-resident or the property is considered to be underused is a form of extortion. It’s disgusting.
For the first time in my life I have to take my words back.
We got A statement from the BCTF pension plan today and the actual money left over to be put in our bank accounts amounts to some real money usually it is eaten up by deductions for INCOME TAX, EXTENDED HEALTH,
AND ENHANCED DENTAL. Maybe it is alright to go to university for a low paying job.
Oh scratch that… I see you fixed it ;-)
God Save America.
Their centuries old Constitution based on a 5,000 year old story book.
Tribalism as it’s best.
Some states are still fighting the results of the election over a year ago.
And with the support of the Supreme Court, Trump could be back in the White House without a single ballot being cast.
Me being sarcastic.
But I just like our system where the election results are cast in stone within a couple of days.
And we go one with our lives.
Lawyers have too much power in the States.
What a day in the life of the investors and the investment advisers…..
All I can say is GREAT JOB Garth, Ryan, Doug and all the staff at the Turner Investments.
Garth, your call on today’s trading events is bang on !
In the beginning of the day the sea of the red and at the end of the day nothing else but the green pastures….;).
I guess some people got scared with all the fear mongering in the MSM, panicked and sold, while other people waited to pick up easy one percent dip.
Thank you for always keeping the things in the perspective !
The last two times that the S&P 500 dropped 4% and rebounded into the green were as follows:
Oct 16, 2008 = down -4.63% and closed up 4.25% – EU, US, Japan coordinated action to guarantee bank financing, Paulson shifts TARP to buying equity in banks.
Oct 23, 2008 = down -4.28% and closed up 1.26% – Fed bailed out MM funds.
But things are a little different this time. As Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes, stock markets have not had to deal with a Fed raising rates out of inflation concerns for almost 30 years.
The markets are so sensitive to rate hikes that just talking about them can cause stocks to crater. The market is saying to the Fed: continue being my friend with benefits.
@#12 IHCTD9
“If not, there’s always Northern Ontario and the East Coast. I wish I was fluent in French because Northern PQ is nice too.”
+++
A lot of small towns in northern Ontario are french.
I drove north on the highway from Thunder Bay ( up through Timmins) and every small town in Ont we stopped for gas or coffee was predominantly french.
Headed further north from Val D’Or Quebec to Chibougamau to Saguenay down around to the St Lawrence.
LOTS of gravel road and stumpy pine forest.
Carmeline sure was a beauty. Sad to hear of her passing Francisco.
#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.24.22 at 6:38 pm
God Save America.
Their centuries old Constitution based on a 5,000 year old story book.
Tribalism as it’s best.
Some states are still fighting the results of the election over a year ago.
And with the support of the Supreme Court, Trump could be back in the White House without a single ballot being cast.
Me being sarcastic.
Lawyers have too much power in the States.
——–
Give it up, Ponz. We know you were stopped at the border and turned back. The ideological superiority ploy is thin soup.
Sad.
#67 Grandv!ew on 01.24.22 at 6:40 pm
Garth, your call on today’s trading events is bang on !
In the beginning of the day the sea of the red and at the end of the day nothing else but the green pastures….;).
I guess some people got scared with all the fear mongering in the MSM, panicked and sold, while other people waited to pick up easy one percent dip.
——–
More like:
+6% NasdaQ / +3.8% SP500. One day!
Geez Louise.
Double Diamond Hands
Hold on!
Interesting times we live in ….
Buying for need , a roof over your head.
Stocks based on Fundamentals will win out…
David Pylyp
TORONTO
#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.22 at 6:46 pm
@#12 IHCTD9
“If not, there’s always Northern Ontario and the East Coast. I wish I was fluent in French because Northern PQ is nice too.”
+++
A lot of small towns in northern Ontario are french. I drove north on the highway from Thunder Bay.
——————
I just happen to be in Thunder Bay tonight. Probably better off speaking Finnish in these parts.
Thunder Bay was home to 13,565 people of Finnish descent,[40] the highest concentration of people of Finnish origin in Canada.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunder_Bay
Sauna anyone?
“A correction is nothing more than a Wall Street euphemism for losing a lot of money very rapidly.”
– Peter Lynch
Only if you sell. – Garth Turner
#120 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 2:16 pm
Take some deep breaths, amigo, then buy some index yourself. Or ATVI, which gained another 3% to the upside.
—
This week on conservatives telling lies hoping no one notices…
#7 Jake on 01.24.22 at 3:15 pm
I hope this correction does not bring back the gold bug-gers? It was so refreshing not to weed through all their nonsense lately. Gold has done nothing lately while the markets continue to chug higher even with corrections along the way.
—————————————————————
Poor man’s gold up 6.9% Gold up 1.8%. Beats bonds.
The fed has no credibility left, the markets clearly does not believe that any meaningful rate increase is in the cards.
As I stated: super-stagflation of double digits inflation – around 15 % reported as 7-8 % with interest rates max at 2 %, average around 1-1.5 % in the next decade – decade and a half.
Stock market returns below real inflation as consumption and the economy contracts, services deteriorate, cost of living skyrockets thanks to inflation and the green policies and real standard of living flushed down the toilet.
Houses on their way to 3, then 5 millions, retirement mission impossible, CPP equals to one cup of coffee and one bread per day, the pleasure of capped salaries and increases of 1- 2%, as the owners stated – no salary increases here.
Rich on paper for some, in reality 95 % much much poorer, 5 % living the life.
Oil in triple digits soon, 200-300 $ on the horizon.
Fun times ahead.
Hair cut 30-50 bucks for men, 80 -100 for women.
Cost of services increasing, quality decreasing.
Rents or housing with utilities and taxes – mission impossible.
Kids – mission impossible, no wonder the owners dream of cheap labour import as the local sheeple stock is headed for the cull.
Sorry folks, no kids, giant mortgage instead for you.
#72 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 7:07 pm
More like:
+6% NasdaQ / +3.8% SP500. One day!
Geez Louise.
—
Weird, more delusion.
Interesting times.
Welcome to the era of 12 trading day bear markets and 2 hour corrections.
Garth how can we possibly feel that any of this is remotely normal and on the level? I’m fully invested but nothing has seemed right in years and especially since April of 2020 Should I just buy Bitcoin while I’m at it too?
Cost of materials and energy is never going down.
Europe has lower inflation as credit expansion is lower and people have savings but the inflation of food is noticeable.
Food inflation will be the killer as well as housing/rent.
Basically, after years and decades of ‘growth’ the basic stuff – shelter and food, retirement, kids becomes impossible to manage.
It was way more than possible with Dow 3-4 k, impossible now at 10 times that.
People with no education could raise 3 kids, support them through university, have a house and retire.
Now an educated couple can not afford a home alone, god forbid kids, retirement.
On the quality of food I won’t even touch.
Oh well I was off by a few days on my annual January bulk contributions & rebalancing. No way to perfectly predict the bottom of a baseless selloff.
Seems the BTFD people furiously turned it in the green.
Well let’s see.
#74 Bezengy on 01.24.22 at 7:29 pm
#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.22 at 6:46 pm
@#12 IHCTD9
“If not, there’s always Northern Ontario and the East Coast. I wish I was fluent in French because Northern PQ is nice too.”
+++
A lot of small towns in northern Ontario are french. I drove north on the highway from Thunder Bay.
——————
I just happen to be in Thunder Bay tonight. Probably better off speaking Finnish in these parts.
Thunder Bay was home to 13,565 people of Finnish descent,[40] the highest concentration of people of Finnish origin in Canada.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunder_Bay
Sauna anyone?
———- –
Heh, I was born and raised in Thunder Bay. Lots of Finns and Ojibwe.
#62 Nonplused on 01.24.22 at 6:29 pm
“Covid is over. We won (mostly). And all in I am not sure it was any worse than AIDS. We seem to forget that so far that one has killed 33 million people and is still getting up to a million a year. It may never go away. But we live with it.”
I agree with your comparison with AIDS to a point, and COVID also messes up the immune system:
https://khn.org/news/article/covid-autoimmune-virus-rogue-antibodies-cytokine-storm-severe-disease/
But one major difference is that COVID is airborne and thus way more transmissible than AIDS. One infectious person can unknowingly infect many just by sharing the same air.
The big problem with COVID is that it is like a horrid lottery. Some get it and die. More get very sick but recover. Even more have a mild or even barely noticeable infection. The severity is seemingly random, though it most certainly is not random. But because it is so unpredictable and not everyone gets severely sick, people do not respect or even believe in the threat, and we end up with much disagreement and division over how to deal with COVID, even within families.
If COVID was more fatal like Ebola you can bet the public health responses would be much more aggressive, there would be way less anti-vaxxers and COVID-deniers, and those who persisted in this would die out very quickly.
https://bangordailynews.com/2022/01/04/news/world-news/what-past-diseases-can-tell-us-about-how-covid-19-might-end/
I do not expect that the world will get vaccinated against COVID to the extent required to eliminate the virus from the planet. Governments are too inept or corrupt, too many people are vaccine ignorant/hesitant, and most corporations are too greedy.
We will need to adapt.
There is hope in that new treatments are being developed and implemented so mortality should decrease. However sickness and health complications and business/supply chain disruptions will persist, and long COVID and future manifestations of the virus, as happens with measles/shingles, are significant concerns.
COVID will also to continue to amplify inequity. Those with means can afford more effective masks, better ventilation and air-filtration systems, to work from home, longer quarantine periods, to pay for mandatory COVID testing for travel, insurance for travel interruptions, COVID-safe recreational and vacation activities/opportunities, etc.
As the public health care systems struggle to cope with COVID (initial severe infections, and long COVID health complications) there will be increasing pressure for private fixes to these immediate and long term COVID ills.
Again, those with means/privilege will be better able to afford this.
Same as it ever was…
#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.22 at 6:46 pm
@#12 IHCTD9
“If not, there’s always Northern Ontario and the East Coast. I wish I was fluent in French because Northern PQ is nice too.”
+++
A lot of small towns in northern Ontario are french.
I drove north on the highway from Thunder Bay ( up through Timmins) and every small town in Ont we stopped for gas or coffee was predominantly french.
Headed further north from Val D’Or Quebec to Chibougamau to Saguenay down around to the St Lawrence.
LOTS of gravel road and stumpy pine forest
— —
Yep, some more than others. Kapuskasing is pretty french. I can handle 50/50, but northern PQ is super French, you’d need to be pretty fluent to fit in. My dental hygienist is from northern Quebec, and her given name is freaking unpronounceable. She goes by a simpler common name.
Stefane Marion, chief economist at NBF:
“If the BoC chooses to keep its policy rate unchanged this week, it will be because of geopolitical concerns (Ukraine), not because of a lack of strength in Canadian economic data”
***********
O my God!!! What an incredible delirium. Have they all (in BoC) lost their minds? Is this dude really an economist?
#37 Bezengy on 01.24.22 at 4:37 pm
#12 IHCTD9 on 01.24.22 at 3:30 pm
If not, there’s always Northern Ontario
————–
Nope….sold out here too!
—- —
Oh there’s still plenty along hwy 11, and for great prices too – for the right dude. Not everyone is going to want to move to Nipigon or Wawa, but I could totally do it, and love it. Northern Ontario is ultra-massive, beautiful, and affordable, yet generally forsaken. Just what the doctor ordered!
The house I am in right now, in Gilbert Arizona, sold for its original price of 217k in 2007 and was bought in 2012 for 103k Ouch! Its now worth 420K. If the original owner kept it, they would’ve of returned 93.5 percent on the home right now. Thats not including taxes, maintenance, hoa fees and other expenses. The snp 500 in that same time period has returned 341 percent with dividends. Big Difference! I know where i am putting my money.
#82 mike from mtl on 01.24.22 at 7:56 pm
Oh well I was off by a few days on my annual January bulk contributions & rebalancing. No way to perfectly predict the bottom of a baseless selloff.
Seems the BTFD people furiously turned it in the green.
Well let’s see.
——————————————————————
So, TSX closed friday at 20622. Opened today at 20151 down 471 or 2.28%. Hit low of 19960, down 662 or 3.2%. Closed the day at 20571 down 35 points from friday close. Total non event but I bet there were a lot of people sweating at the low and bailed.
Gotta believe what’s in your best interest…I wonder if the investor below factored inflation in as it also happened in the past.
****************
http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-housing-market-is-betting-rates-will-never-rise-1.1712555
“It’s investors, whose participation in the housing market has grown faster than any other kind of buyer, who are more likely to sell, said Rosenberg. As of mid-2021, investors accounted for a fifth of all homes purchased in Canada, according to the most recent data from the central bank.
Investors look at their properties as a source of profit, so they may have fewer qualms about selling than owner-occupiers when the economics turn less favorable, research by the Bank of England has suggested. Plus, the greater proportion of debt investors carry relative to their income may make them even more sensitive to changes in interest rates, according to research from the Bank of Canada. And in late 2020, about 40 per cent of investors were only breaking even — making that group completely reliant on price appreciation to earn a return, according to an informal survey of investment-property owners by Toronto’s Veritas Investment Research.
Taken together, this may mean even investors who passed the government’s stress test decide it’s just not worth their while if rates actually rise.
“The investors tend to be leveraged up to the eyeballs,” Rosenberg said. “That’s where the selling is going to initiate, but it will spread like dominoes.”
But investors, average homebuyers and mortgage brokers alike don’t seem to believe that the Bank of Canada will actually raise interest rates significantly.
Vlad Maevskiy, a housing investor who owns about 17 properties around Southwestern Ontario and just got a variable-rate mortgage in August, says if the past is any indication, things will be fine.
The Bank of Canada hasn’t had a policy rate higher than 1.75 per cent since before the 2008 financial crisis, with rate-tightening cycles tending to be both brief and shallow. And as the pandemic still rages across the country, Maevskiy sees plenty of reason for the central bank to keep borrowing costs low.
“I don’t believe they are going to increase as many times as they project,” he said. “Even if it goes higher it’s not going to last. There’s going to be another crisis, there’s going to be another something that’s going to bring all those rates down again. So you’re better off still paying variable”
Faron,
Sorry, my fault: working with engineers, I sometimes expect a base level of comprehension/extrapolation/math competency. Not always the case! Haha. Anyway, briefly:
NasdaQ day low to close: +6%, SP500 day low to close +3.8%, ATVI currently 3% lower than when the arbi opportunity started, so +3% benefit.
#62 Nonplused on 01.24.22 at 6:29 pm
AIDs is not contagious. It’s transmissible. Two totally different virus types.
Time to start nibbling the market…back up the truck when spike down through 200 day moving average.
Public Service Post.
I tried to make Bill zufelt laugh a little today given the roller coaster market machinations, but no way to know if he came out of cardiac arrest.
Maybe the best thing to calm all the hand wringing and heart palpitations is just to share this interview with Art Berman.
Special attention to be paid to what he says about the relationship of inflation to oil at 25:00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyxddYfXaQk
Ignore all the flotsam jetsam and focus on the fundamentals. Like packing for the return to the beach, which will be chock-a-block full of Russians! What a great time to be alive!
#79 Faron on 01.24.22 at 7:46 pm
#72 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 7:07 pm
More like:
+6% NasdaQ / +3.8% SP500. One day!
Geez Louise.
—
Weird, more delusion
___________________________________
Faron: buy the bottom, sell the top, all the same day!
How do you like me now Sailor A?
Thank god for the FED’s Plunge Protection Team coming to the rescue and saving our bacon again! I almost sold all of my portfolio. Perish the thought. It looks like they are determined to keep this ponzi scheme going for a while longer, until they can’t. Then look out below.
Myth. – Garth
@#66 Ponzies Purgatory …Prussian Pals
“Tribalism as it’s best.”
+++
Odd, I considered the Nazi Party the worst form of tribalism.
Jan 6th 2020 was a bit of a warm up to Trump’s next coronation in 2024
Carmeline. What a beautiful dog !
#95 Wrk.dover on 01.24.22 at 9:02 pm
#72 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 7:07 pm
More like:
+6% NasdaQ / +3.8% SP500. One day!
Geez Louise.
———
buy the bottom, sell the top, all the same day!
How do you like me now Sailor A?
———-
I’ve always liked you, W.
#96
Thought the same thing.Last time we saw this kind of whiplash was in 2008 when the Dow dropped 52% from over 14,000 to less 7,000.We’ll see how it plays out into February and March—they can’t catch a falling knife forever.
Are coming to town. Will Turdeau order the army to open fire on them…lmao
Except on this gubbermint blog everyone talks about it including the liEberal yahoos from Yahoo..
Fed will panic when stocks go down enough, and restart stimulus, likely bigger than before.
Question is, how far down is down enough?
***Corrections are normal. They are good. They mow the weeds, prune the trees, chase away the varmints and pave the way for growth.***
If corrections are ‘good’, bear markets are even better – precisely for the reasons mentioned above.
Given the extreme valuations (ie. bubbles) almost everywhere, a bear is coming and it’s inevitable. I would say that’s it’s already here. Prepare!
Many are expecting the “Roaring 20s”, but after the Spanish Flu pandemic we actually had a depression:
The Depression of 1920-1921: Why Historians—and Economists—Often Overlook It
https://fee.org/articles/the-depression-of-1920-1921-why-historians-and-economists-often-overlook-it/
#95 Wrk.dover on 01.24.22 at 9:02 pm
No, I got it, but what I didn’t get was the fudging. But Sailor has put his hand on your shoulder to show he has always liked you. Lucky fella.
#91 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 8:50 pm
Silly me, I expected engineers to get their numbers right.
Close enough (but incorrect) on the Nasdaq (depending on which version). But not even close on the S&P. ATVI didn’t move 3% today as per your words. Integrity pal.
I hope you aren’t the kind of engineer that fudges the numbers like you did above. And if you do, please don’t hide it like your pseudo-eng deity so often does.
And, no, I’m not writing as I lick my wounds. Today was brilliant in the money I manage thanks to the SAGI indicator. Based on your chirping today and where futures are right now, SAGI would have yielded another win tomorrow. Alas.
The United States of America is about to go to war with the United Socialist Soviet Republic.
All you millennials should buy the dip!
Live life like your gonna die! Because your gonna!
#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.24.22 at 6:38 pm
God Save America.
Their centuries old Constitution based on a 5,000 year old story book.
——————————————
What is this 5,000 year old story book you reference? Even the Epic of Gilgamesh isn’t that old.
In any case human nature doesn’t change that quickly, so there is some wisdom to be found in the classics.
#84 Hurtin’ Albertan on 01.24.22 at 8:15 pm
#92 Cici on 01.24.22 at 8:52 pm
Yes AIDS and covid have different transmission mechanisms. But I remember when AIDS first came to the public attention, it too was going to kill us all. It didn’t.
In some ways AIDS is worse because you can have it and be contagious or transmissible I guess if AIDS is not contagious for years before you know you have it, transmissible the whole time. And it never really goes away. Once you have it you have it for life.
But it is a good example of hygiene standards evolving to deal with a new threat, things we take for granted now like sterilization and masks at the dentists, no open wounds on the sports field, and a widespread but unsuccessful attempt to get teenagers to wear condoms (which works about as well as mask mandates).
I’m pretty sure we aren’t dealing with a “12 Monkeys” scenario. Personally, when I allow myself to think about it, I am still more concerned by nuclear war than I am about just about any other modern crisis. Luckily I, like Dr. Strangelove, have learned to stop worrying and love the bomb. As it seems so has everybody else.
I asked myself, ” Did any companies I own announce bad news, like a dividend cut?”
No? Then STFU and relax. When BCE says it’s no longer providing cell service, when CP Rail no longer hauls grain…or Teck gives up on copper etc etc etc.
Not even if Trudeau makes an ensconced tribal warlord Finance Minister or Greta siding with the Taliban neither of whom can find Canada on a map of Canada, or decides to CO-PM with Gerry Butts boss-goon Carney at Eurasia Group, will I worry about an apocalypse.
If Biden invades Ukraine to ambush Fox News and Xi bombs Taiwan I will not waver. It has to be good for investors somehow . Cheer up guys. Those guys will destroy themselves with greed and stupidity eventually and we’ll be collecting dividends while they do.
First, if you’re feeling moany about equity markets, spare some sympathy for the kids and their crypto. – Garth
Nope, none. :) Gamblers need to be taught a lesson. Live and learn.
Bears are in charge… it looked like lots of short selling at the end of the day. We may see a bull trap develop at some point tomorrow even though futures are down, but it’s difficult to say. We have a busy week in the earnings schedule with some broad representation. The rest of the week could drift on it’s own merits and cut through some noise.
That being said, the PMI is down. Consumers are racking up credit card debt. Stimmies are gone. Omicron is disrupting demand and Q1 looks like it will lay and egg, but it’s difficult to say if demand picks up once Omicron fades.
Inflation hasn’t peaked if commodities is any indication meaning the Fed will likely remain hawkish at least, in language. Inflation is rising world wide partly as a consequence of commodities being priced in U.S. dollars but mainly from monetary policy by the Fed (expanded money supply looking for a home). As a world currency, the Fed will have it’s hands tied and be forced to raise rates regardless of what the markets do, one would think but then there’s the prospect of war.
What Europe does in response is the big question. If Russia invades Ukraine (sure has that feel to it), one would think Europe wouldn’t raise rates. On the other hand, Europe has inflation of it’s own, albeit partly driven by commodities priced in dollars. Europe may not wish to give up ground against the dollar, or try to put the brakes on a slide (thus, I see more coordination in raising rates from both CB’s or none at all).
I would think the markets would roil world wide with an invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. markets would bounce back first but it’s difficult to say to what extent as valuations are historically high. Chinese real estate… more La Nina and man made climate change… more corporate self regulation (not a good thing for long term economics if readers are wondering), Putin, Omicron (shouldn’t be much of a factor next winter but we thought that for this winter), smaller market bond disruption, slower global growth coupled with still high U.S. market valuations across the board, 2022 is a year for market headwinds.
Chief reason among them all, high valuations.
#1 RichardTO on 01.24.22 at 3:02 pm
I’m financially ruined.
—————
Are you serious? Do tell….
You have access to the world’s best advisors on this blog.
And Garth too!
Carmeline was gorgeous. Taken much too soon. 9 years is not normal for this breed and size. She would have been my BFF without a doubt!
Eurasia Head Globalist Bremmer who controls Carney and Butts who in turn control Trudeau announced that “Covid will be over by summer”. Believe him?
Trudeaus popularity is lower than a snake penis. The Butts Plan to gut democracy with his super genius manipulation of 57 GTA seats might be cracking.
Or, is Trudeaus pulling the rug on thousands of qualified skilled immigrants not going over so we’ll? Asking too much? Greedy hands renaming city parks after bloody dictators losing political bag men?
Any way you shovel it, the top guy ( Brenner) suddenly pops up and makes a call on Canada’s Covid fiasco? Suspicious that he openly makes a statement that he’s been using Trudeaus mouth to make. Brenner is like a ghost otherwise. Is Justin too broken to fix now?
My friend Henry Blodget told me to buy Bitcoin , other cryptos ,and NFTs, they are a no-brainer.
Yesterday one of the webmasters earned 23011$, but how much can you earn? Best CPA Affiliate Program https://store.admitad.com/ru/promo/?ref=be611b327e
“At the same time little birdies (vultures) are telling me the feds are about to bring da hammer down on investors, with a requirement for larger down payments, a beneficial ownership registry and restricted use of leverage.”
More on this soon? I’m shocked
@113 Jane Bond++
John Ivison captures it in this mornings NP on the topic of immigration, but it applies equally to what Garth referenced with respect to planned initiatives to cool the housing market:
“It has been a hallmark of this government that it has not been very effective at implementing policies, often because it is too focused on communications, and not enough on making things happen after they’ve been announced. This reflects a prime minister, who, in the words of one of his own senior members of staff, is “much more about: ‘what’s new?’. ”
“He’s good at getting people super-excited, setting bold visions. But it creates real challenges in execution,” the staffer said.”
Food supply. More empty meat sections in Ontariowe, Soviet Kanada. The War on Meat….is carefully planned. Alllmost back to normal guys!!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ5hnpnWUAcwH1P?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ4oXbtXEAEmOn6?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://twitter.com/Thegoodwife22/status/1485729436184023047
— This is why the world and “Old System” was shut down that cold winter week March 2020.
Flip what our rulers tell us 180 degrees, to make sense. They…even call it the New Agenda. Food shortages. Yup.
https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda
“Alongside continuing development priorities such as poverty eradication, health, education and food security and nutrition…”
“The interlinkages and integrated nature of the Sustainable Development Goals are of crucial importance in ensuring that the purpose of the new Agenda is realised”
—-
—-
The abusdity of Life in Kanada. Need a dentist? No problem. Many offices steps to me.
Need a Chiropractor. Ditto. They are found at the base of most new Condo buildings.
Pharmacist? There are 5 pharmacies within a 5-8 minute walk of me. Optomitrist? No worries.
All, highly skilled long-education career paths requiring lifelong learning. You even can PAY one out of your own pocket.
How about seeing a DOCTOR? Hold on there bucko, you can’t just get a doctor in Canada. We cannot train that fast! Taxes! Shortages! We must ration that supply. To Save the Health Care System. 3-5 year wait to get a family doctor in most areas.
Thank god we pay 50% and more of our incomes in direct and indirect taxes.
#107 Nonplused on 01.25.22 at 12:37 am
#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.24.22 at 6:38 pm
God Save America.
Their centuries old Constitution based on a 5,000 year old story book.
——————————————
What is this 5,000 year old story book you reference? Even the Epic of Gilgamesh isn’t that old.
—————————-
According to the Hebrew Calendar, we are now in year 5782.
@#106 Bob Dog
“The United States of America is about to go to war with the United Socialist Soviet Republic.”
+++
I would define it as
The US is about to go to war with a corrupt, murderous dictator.
Russian soldiers are pawns being led to the slaughter
Putin has used any means necessary to get and remain in power.
Murder of political rivals, journalists, former friends jailed…
The richest man in the world?
Maybe.
But all that money doesnt matter if your popularity is in the toilet.
Drum up a “little” war that no one wants but him and that he can stop at any time.
Gets the Russian populations mind off their crappy lives and the pigs that run the country.
Ruthless, corrupt leadership trying to revert to the “glory days” of former Russia.
Putin HAS to win or he’s going to be like a rat in a a gilded cage.
He’s no fool. A fomer KGB colonel who spent years running spy rings in the West.
Where can he go with his billions if he’s forced to step down?
The body bags will arrive home and the anger from within will grow.
6 months? 12? Who knows before the protests start in earnest.
Putin won’t leave quietly ( just like Trump) and he has access to nukes.
Russians will immediately want his money seized.
Prison? Venezuela? Iran? Somewhere in Africa?
It should be interesting when the Russian people realize they’ve been gamed.
If he doesnt resort to nukes first.
The long term result of this nasty skirmish in the Ukraine?
If China ever decides that the far eastern territories of Russia full of clean water, minerals, arable farm land….. are just too juicy to pass up…..who will come to help Russia fight against China?
Europe? The US?
Not likely.
So this nasty little war will destroy the Ukraine and probably be the eventual end of Putin.
Thousands or tens of thousands of lives lost and ruined.
To keep a dictator from jail or a firing squad.
Who knows…maybe one of his closest associates will poison him.
It seems to be the Russian way .
Right Ponzie?
@#113 JB
“Trudeaus popularity is lower than a snake penis. The Butts Plan to gut democracy with his super genius manipulation of 57 GTA seats might be cracking.”
+++
That paragraph deserve repeating.
Too many Freudian phrases to pass up.
True-doughs popularity may be dropping but it doesn’t really matter when the Conservatives don’t have a viable leader to oppose him at the next election.
Speaking of invisible…..
Has anyone seen Jaggy… the NDP leadership gadfly lately?
Besides propping the minority True-dough govt up and getting his wife preggers on a consistent basis….has he done anything else?
@#119 Ponzies Psalm preferences
“According to the Hebrew Calendar, we are now in year 5782.”
++++
Saints preserve us!
Ponzie’s using Judaic references to defend his arguments?
….because google is garbage…..
What’s next ?
Quotes from Gollum in Lord of the Rings?
God bless you Ponze.
Stubborn has reach a whole new level.
@#118 Turner Nation
“How about seeing a DOCTOR? Hold on there bucko, you can’t just get a doctor in Canada. We cannot train that fast! Taxes! Shortages! We must ration that supply. To Save the Health Care System. 3-5 year wait to get a family doctor in most areas.”
++++
Careful TN.
Canada has done an excellent job of inDOCtrinating the public to believe our “health” care is the best in the world ( even though we rank 30th in the world).
You will make the brainwashed very angry if you question their “free health care” beliefs or try and wake them up.
Canada’s vaunted health care is a religion.
Never question it.
Just accept that it is “the one”, “the only”, the best
Or you will be branded a Judas and hounded mercilessly.
#120 crowdedelevatorfartz
Y. It was never about any NATO buffer or security. Only his power. The whole incident was intended for internal consumption and is now blowing beyond the scale he expected. If he wanted security against NATO he’d be investing in education, industry, science, healthcare. THings modern army impossible without. instead he steals money and builds palaces.
Canada is at war with Russia, ask any Newfoundlander whose health care system was hacked by failed state Russia. They basically murdered people waiting for life saving surgeries. PUTIN must be taken down. Prepare for war folks. TINA
#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.22 at 8:38 am
Speaking of invisible…..
Has anyone seen Jaggy… the NDP leadership gadfly lately?
Besides propping the minority True-dough govt up and getting his wife preggers on a consistent basis….has he done anything else?
———
Sure. He was doing branded sponsorship of a rocking chair just last week:
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/made-in-canada-rocker-lands-jagmeet-singh-in-ethical-trouble
Nope. Rates will rise. So will markets. We fully expect the year to contain four Fed hikes and a positive outcome for major indices. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++=
The only way the markets will be higher by end of the year, with 4 rate hikes, is if there is a major market drawdown or US recession which causes the Fed to reverse course and supply lower rates + more QE. Which is entirely possible…
I will be saving this quote.
Go ahead. Rates are rising. The world will get over it. – Garth
#84 Hurtin’ Albertan on 01.24.22 at 8:15 pm
#62 Nonplused on 01.24.22 at 6:29 pm
…
The big problem with COVID is that it is like a horrid lottery. Some get it and die. More get very sick but recover. Even more have a mild or even barely noticeable infection. The severity is seemingly random, though it most certainly is not random. But because it is so unpredictable and not everyone gets severely sick, people do not respect or even believe in the threat, and we end up with much disagreement and division over how to deal with COVID, even within families.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This statement is completely false, and is a result of the deliberate fear campaign of government and media. It is very well known who is most at risk of death from COVID:
– The elderly (75+)
– The obese (as they tend to have multiple risk factors)
– Other immunocompromised / multiple risk factors (but are not obese)
It is very easy to see this if you look at any dataset that shows deaths due to age group. The overwhelming majority are 75+. Many studies, even the US CDC, outline that those most at risk have 4-5+ risk factors.
It is not some “random lottery”…far from it.
If you are obese, I would say to hit a gym, but they are closed…go figure…
#117 the Jaguar on 01.25.22 at 8:01 am
@113 Jane Bond++
“It has been a hallmark of this government that it has not been very effective at implementing policies, often because it is too focused on communications, and not enough on making things happen after they’ve been announced. This reflects a prime minister, who, in the words of one of his own senior members of staff, is “much more about: ‘what’s new?’. ”
“He’s good at getting people super-excited, setting bold visions. But it creates real challenges in execution,” the staffer said.”
____________________________
The difference between J. Powell and J. trudeau is a pair of glasses on one and dyed hair on the other.
Both have ruined our futures with delayed reaction to action.
#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.22 at 8:38 am
True-doughs popularity may be dropping but it doesn’t really matter when the Conservatives don’t have a viable leader to oppose him at the next election.
———
Ok, ok. I will accept the helm to get this country back on track. A few minor changes may be needed.
#56 Trudeau on 01.24.22 at 5:54 pm
===========================
Yup he’s a first class idiot. This country has or had the resources to be on the top of the heap of all developed nations.
We are closing in on the bottom area now.
Steaks going to be for the rich.
Russia is not going to invade the Ukraine. The bigger picture is the middle east. Russia and China are financing and helping to develop energy projects in the middle east. Syria will be joining the Arab League and we will see the pressure on the US to leave the region. The US banks are heavily involved with much of the financing in the oil business in the middle east.
Any thoughts?
#117 the Jaguar on 01.25.22 at 8:01 am
@113 Jane Bond++
John Ivison captures it in this mornings NP on the topic of immigration, but it applies equally to what Garth referenced with respect to planned initiatives to cool the housing market:
“It has been a hallmark of this government that it has not been very effective at implementing policies, often because it is too focused on communications, and not enough on making things happen after they’ve been announced. This reflects a prime minister, who, in the words of one of his own senior members of staff, is “much more about: ‘what’s new?’. ”
“He’s good at getting people super-excited, setting bold visions. But it creates real challenges in execution,” the staffer said.”
———————————-
What you’re describing is called “abstract thinking” commonly referred to “out-of-the-box” thinking.
Common trait among good leaders.
But to be successful they have to be surrounded by competent staff, who buy into the vision.
And the goal should be to under-promise und over-deliver. This avoids distrust and being called a lier.
Biden is doing the opposite.
That’s why he’s in trouble right now.
#5 TurnerNation on 01.24.22 at 3:08 pm
The countdown to 100 million population is on! They have a live score dashboard.
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
==============================
That’s because the god dang things a ponzi scheme! Need more more more input or it fails. IDIOTs.
How about fire the majority of government and their lavish pensions and expense accounts for one.
Then lets talk sustainable. Too many pigs at the trough. Waist and stupidity is full speed ahead dam the torpedo’s.
#120, 121, 122, 123 CEF
Just when I tried to come up with just one sentence in which to use “snake penis”, without offending about half the planet; along comes CEF with four long posts, offending pretty much the whole planet.
Genius, Pure Genius.
Everyone seems to have forgotten why Biden cares so much about Ukraine!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1485605588721876993
#128 Peaked
If you are obese, I would say to hit a gym, but they are closed…go figure…
————————
Another defeatist.
So many ways to get fit.
People were much fitter before there were gyms on every corner.
#132 Brian on 01.25.22 at 10:36 am
Russia is not going to invade the Ukraine. The bigger picture is the middle east. Russia and China are financing and helping to develop energy projects in the middle east. Syria will be joining the Arab League and we will see the pressure on the US to leave the region. The US banks are heavily involved with much of the financing in the oil business in the middle east.
Any thoughts?
————————
Your guess is as good as any.
He will either invade, or not invade.
So it’s 50/50.
Toss a coin.
Head of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government in 2017:
“What we are very proud of, is that we penetrate the global cabinets of countries with our WEF Young Global Leaders… like Trudeau”
https://twitter.com/i/status/1485982015048622090
#132 Brian
“Russia is not going to invade the Ukraine. The bigger picture is the middle east.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Oil is a matter of concern in the big picture in the mid-east, but not near that of Iran in their quest to eliminate the state of Israel entirely with Israel’s gathering preparedness to prevent it.
Iran is on the cusp of capability to hit Israel via nuclear air strike.
Israel now estimates Iran being nuclear ready as early as late this year and will as they intend, strike them down beforehand, possibly with nukes of their own.
A war in the mid-east of never before seen dimension could soon/eventually will unfold there.
#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.25.22 at 11:10 am
#128 Peaked
If you are obese, I would say to hit a gym, but they are closed…go figure…
————————
Another defeatist.
So many ways to get fit.
People were much fitter before there were gyms on every corner
++++++++++++++++++++++
You clearly lack the ability to understand irony as humour…
Tor F :
“people who ruin their own lives have a strong tendency to blame other people when things go wrong ”
who pays for the truckers roads they drive on?
#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.22 at 8:30 am
It should be interesting when the Russian people realize they’ve been gamed.
————–
100 years of being gamed and counting. They are gonna realize it any moment now ha-ha )
Truth is most Russians think Ukraine belongs to them. They may dislike Putin for corruption, but *not* for trying to subdue Ukraine. Consider this, some of the opposition Putin faces domestically is not that he is not democratic enough, but because he did take Kiev in 2014.
I could not help myself, ‘ kept thinking it was SA & Ponz playing here.
https://twitter.com/slender_sherbet/status/1484877357445963780?s=20
many people who died here had no underlying health problems? sad
https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/
I’ve been skiing all week.
Wha’ happened?
Skiing is fun.
But it has its ups and downs……
BADABING! Ooooooooooooooooh!
@# 132,136 & 139- Brian on 01.25.22 at 11:09 am +++
You’re too smart for this room, Brian. That ‘bragging Brandon’ video clip you posted never did get much traction from the western media, did it? That’s been the pattern. The ‘Hunter Laptop’ scandal also went MIA.
The problem for those who drink the kool-aid of what Tara Henley ( who quit the CBC) referenced as ‘ to sign on, enthusiastically, to a radical political agenda that originated on Ivy League campuses in the United States and spread through American social media platforms that monetize outrage and stoke societal division’.
People pick the narrative they prefer, but Dwight Eisenhower warned the world in his speech years ago ( miliarty-industrial complex). It’s only been ramped up over the years.
If real war starts again it won’t be the Ukraine. ( A failed state by its own doing). My bet would be Kosovo and environs. Everything is tribal.
Cyber attacks on infastructure, such as the Colonial Pipeline attack, are grounds for war. The failed state of Russia needs to rid itself from Putin.
https://kyivindependent.com/
#146 Dharma Bum on 01.25.22 at 12:34 pm
I’ve been skiing all week.
Wha’ happened?
Skiing is fun.
But it has its ups and downs……
BADABING! Ooooooooooooooooh!
——–
I went skiing once and it started out fine, but after getting off the lift everything went downhill. A slippery slope.
Ran into a tree on the way down and lost my left arm and leg. Ended up being all right.
#142 jess on 01.25.22 at 12:14 pm
Tor F :
“people who ruin their own lives have a strong tendency to blame other people when things go wrong ”
who pays for the truckers roads they drive on?
============================
Everyone that fills up pays plenty of fuel tax?
EVs are going to fix everything….NOT!
Brandolini’s law, also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, is an internet adage that emphasizes the difficulty of debunking false, facetious, or otherwise misleading information: “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude larger than to produce it.”
CHECKING THE CHECKERS
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-doctors-fall-into-the-same-trap-as-antivaxxers/
“https://retractionwatch.com/2021/10/04/author-defends-paper-claiming-covid-19-vaccines-kill-five-times-more-people-over-65-than-they-save/#comment-2073713
#127 PastThePeak
“Nope. Rates will rise. So will markets. We fully expect the year to contain four Fed hikes and a positive outcome for major indices. – Garth”
…………………..
“The only way the markets will be higher by end of the year, with 4 rate hikes, is if there is a major market drawdown or US recession which causes the Fed to reverse course and supply lower rates + more QE. Which is entirely possible…”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I posted this along those lines a week ago.
willworkforpickles on 01.21.22 at 8:44 am
-Once the market newbies & weak hands have jumped ship , the markets can settle down and get comfortable with the Fed smoke and mirrors show of paltry interest rate incremental increases through 2022.
The bail-out newbs and weak hands don’t get it, they think the interest rates scheduled to come will hurt the markets.
This is where the Fed smoke and mirrors show comes into play that will to the contrary, prove to have a positive effect on the markets going forward.
Positive in that 3 paltry rate increases for 2022 (not 2023 yet) will give way to the dis-inflationary effect (illusion) the market needs right now to stay buoyed.
Persistent high inflation has always harmed the equities market.
Some dis-inflation (of sorts) is whats needed now regardless of the fact its only an engineered smoke and mirrors show for 2022 that will ultimately in real terms…actually have no effect on real inflation numbers by years end.
The hard medicine comes in 2023.
But the markets should get healthy after an initial sell-off blip and stay healthy for the rest of 2022, at least until the real unavoidable chit starts hitting the fan next year.-
It doesn’t matter who says it first. (as i did) What we say means nothing here no matter what until Garth says it himself. I must go along with Garth on this one. I’d be contradicting myself otherwise.
Later i said…
-The Fed at any rate is not going to raise rates enough in 2022 to bring on an economic downturn. Their smoke and mirrors play will have virtually little to no effect on stalling inflation in 2022 either.
The paltry 3 individual quarter point rate increases suffice now in their world bag of tricks as a dis-inflationary throttle down on inflation that will merely get them through another year.
Lowering rates again doesn’t look likely as unprecedented debt levels begin to change the rules-
Speaking of unprecedented debt levels (as I’ve said before) the QE that brought rates down with unprecedented cash infusions fueling the artificial economy we’ve had in the last 12 years, won’t continue to effect lower rates as they did before debt reached the unsustainable levels now never before seen … created by it (QE debt) today.
#128 PastThePeak on 01.25.22 at 10:01 am
#84 Hurtin’ Albertan on 01.24.22 at 8:15 pm
#62 Nonplused on 01.24.22 at 6:29 pm
…
The big problem with COVID is that it is like a horrid lottery. Some get it and die. More get very sick but recover. Even more have a mild or even barely noticeable infection. The severity is seemingly random, though it most certainly is not random. But because it is so unpredictable and not everyone gets severely sick, people do not respect or even believe in the threat, and we end up with much disagreement and division over how to deal with COVID, even within families.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This statement is completely false, and is a result of the deliberate fear campaign of government and media. It is very well known who is most at risk of death from COVID:
– The elderly (75+)
– The obese (as they tend to have multiple risk factors)
– Other immunocompromised / multiple risk factors (but are not obese)
It is very easy to see this if you look at any dataset that shows deaths due to age group. The overwhelming majority are 75+. Many studies, even the US CDC, outline that those most at risk have 4-5+ risk factors.
It is not some “random lottery”…far from it.
If you are obese, I would say to hit a gym, but they are closed…go figure…
———————————————————
I agree that based on the severe health outcomes from COVID that have been documented to date, the risk is much higher for those who are older or who have underlying health conditions:
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#vaccine-outcomes
My comparison of COVID to a sick lottery is not just the risk of dying, it is the risk of getting the sickest one has ever been in their life or the risk of developing long-COVID. Some people don’t even know they have it. Some, no matter how fit and healthy they are when they get it sure know they have it and feel like they are going to die, even if they don’t even end up in hospital.
What about the millions of previously young and healthy people who will struggle with long-COVID? Current estimates are that between 10% and 1/3 of people who contract COVID will struggle with long term health issues resulting from their COVID infection:
https://www.macleans.ca/longforms/chronic-exhaustion-derailed-lives-and-no-way-out-this-is-long-covid/
Those who underestimate the risk of COVID to their own personal health do so not only at their own peril but also to the peril of their family members and to the peril of the greater health and well-being of our society.
Garth,
From Vancouver. Long time reader, first time making a comment. How is a ‘ beneficial ownership registry’ going to effect the housing market. BC already has one and houses are running ramped!!!
I’m 35 years old, have a wife, a 2 year old, a 3 month old and of course a Labradoodle named Paisley (my best friend).
I’m living downtown in a 2 bedroom apartment (950sq/ft). With a smokin deal on rent ($2,200). That being said we’re quickly outgrowing our condo and need to move. After looking around for a 3 bedroom, I can’t find anything for less then $3,500-4k a month. Not to mention there is 50 applications being submitted for anything decent. So I’m in a dilemma that keeps me up every night and spins through my head all day every day.
We have our TSFA’s maxed out, solid chuck of change in out RRSP’s, wife is a nurse so she has a full pension coming at 60. Combined we make over 300k a year. In addition to all this we have 500k saved for a down payment on a house, but yet I sit here feeling like I can’t afford one. Houses have sky rocketed 20% in the last year, avg price for a house in Vancouver is 1.9mill!! I don’t want a mortgage for over 1mill that I’m going to be a slave to for the next decade.
I’ve been reading tour blog since 2018, anticipating a pullback that doesn’t seem to be coming. I need a house for my family to live in and am truly at a loss as to what I do.
Any advise would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you,
Tyler
https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/real-estate-bc/land-owner-transparency-registry
#153 Hurtin’ Albertan on 01.25.22 at 5:02 pm
Ok Karen