Tomorrow

One of the billion-dollar hedge fund managers who comments on this pathetic blog – or maybe it was your BIL who owns four Tesla shares – told us Friday there’d be a 1,200 point crash on the Dow tomorrow (Monday). That would wipe away 4% of the market’s value. This is consistent with scary Jeremy Grantham’s recent rant that $35 trillion in market value is about to be erased as stocks plunge by 40% before they bottom.

Let’s review this.

Why would financial markets have a cow just as we are looking at emerging full-force form a two-year global plague? After all, the bond market says otherwise (rising yields forecast inflation, not recession). Commodities say it ain’t so (oil hit a seven-year high last week on expected increased demand). Corporate earnings confirm it (year-over-year growth in 2021 was 45%). The labour market denies it (back to pre-pandemic levels in Canada and the US). And the performance of markets themselves over the last twelve months (ahead 27%) belies the moans of doomsayers.

In short, Putin-vs-Ukraine, Omicron, inflation and rising interest rates are vexing, but not terminal. Markets are gyrating because of headlines and investors taking profits as central banks start to remove the punch bowl of cheap rates, but they’ll get over it. They always do.

In short, if you woke up today worrying about your portfolio, well, you have the wrong portfolio. And you have most likely lost perspective.

Remember what history shows. The biggest threat to markets at this moment is a hike in the cost of money. That comes because inflation is hot, there are more open jobs than available workers and the pandemic has made everything more expensive. Look at houses. But rising rates are a sign of economic expansion, not contraction. They are meant to moderate an overcharged economy, temper growth and dampen demand for credit.

How have stocks, for example, done during these tightening cycles? Just fine, as it turns out. What spooks investors far more are recessions – times when earnings fall, unemployment rises and CBs have to cut rates to stimulate investment. That’s not now. The opposite.

Okay, so what’s up with recent losses?

As of this weekend, the S&P 500 is down 8% from the all-time high it touched a few weeks ago – on January 3rd. Could it fall more tomorrow? Is Drake a tedious egomaniac? Of course. But, so what? The odds of this being the start of a bear market as opposed to a garden-variety correction seem low – given the factors stated above.

Keep your perspective. What happens in the next day, or week or month (even year) will have little or no bearing on where your TFSA, RRSP or joint non-registered account sit in five years, or the day you need money to buy a house, send your kid to medical school or retire by the sea. Financial markets can be volatile and irrational in the short-term (and usually are). But it almost always ends up okay. The best tool you have to ensure that is time – assuming you didn’t blow the load on meme stocks or cypto.

Given enough time, there’s nothing markets won’t overcome. Jumping in and out simply augments risk. How do you know when to exit? When to re-enter? Missing a few of the best days is way more consequential than avoiding a few of the worst. And hiding in cash, GICs or HISAs for years is a recipe for penury in retirement for most people. That’s not safe or smart. Sadly most will not understand that until it’s too late to recover.

Try to remember that corrections are normal. They’re good. They blow off excess speculation, weed out the cowboys and help re-establish sound valuations. The things that cause them seem monumental at the time, yet are scarcely recalled a few years later. Higher returns in the long run are only possible because we endure losses in the short term. Without these blow-offs, prices would become completely detached from economic reality because of human nature. So, we go too far. We get spanked. We move on.

Here’s a little summary worth remembering. Most years have corrections. In fact since 1950 there have been 36 corrections, ten bear markets and six crashes. The average draw-down per year has been just under 14%, and yet the average annual gain since the S&P 500 index was created (1957) has been 11%. Conclusion: anyone who ignored the routine, normal, terrifying dips did swell.

In summary. Anything can go wrong. Putin could invade. Omicron could birth another evil variant twin. Inflation could rage and rates jump (check back here on Wednesday). We could see a tsunami, terrorist attack or a Celine Dion revival. None of this can you control, nor should prevent you from waking up and celebrating each day.

So invest in a diversified way. Eschew individual stocks. Go with index ETFs. Have global exposure, not just maple. Be invested across many sectors, and in large and small enterprises. Have balance with insurance-type fixed income assets. Get interest rate protection with preferreds and other floating-rate securities. Use the tax shelters you have been given, fully. Understand pullbacks are normalities, not punishments. Forget the bears. They almost always have something to sell. Ignore the noise. It’s just distracting.

Focus on what matters. You know.

About the picture: “This is my son’s girlfriend’s sister’s chienne,” writes Leslie. “Edmonton born, living in Paris, and vacationing in BC — on a day trip in Vancouver area recently. She doesn’t need your blog, as life is already as good as it gets, but I do.”

125 comments ↓

#1 Flop… on 01.23.22 at 2:48 pm

So the Georgia Straight ran a story about the some of the real estate nuttiness going on in Flopville.

The details…

950 Ringwood Ave, Vancouver.

Asked 1.24m

Assessment 1.36m

Previous year 1.12m

Sold for 1.83m

26 offers and 580k over asking.

https://www.straight.com/news/photos-cottage-style-home-in-vancouver-gets-26-offers-and-sells-580000-over-asking-for-183

Most people in the hood seem to be asking around 10-15% over assessment, so it probably should have started around 1.5-1.55 but the low starting asking price just the competitive juices flowing with low inventory.

The house is 110 years old, and so if it was in Europe, it would just be getting worn in and beginning to lose that new home smell…

M47BC

#2 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 01.23.22 at 2:50 pm

I am very sorry for what you let me do to your country.

#3 Prince Polo on 01.23.22 at 2:53 pm

That chart looks like it’s off of The Compound! Are you a secret fan?

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.22 at 2:54 pm

I remember going to a financial investment seminar many many years ago in the early 1990’s in the Lowerbrainland.
There was a guest speaker who was a “futurist”.
His name escapes me but his knowledge on tech trends, finances, politics were very intuitive as it turns out.
He was paid to be there and gave a very entertaining hour long talk about where he thought the world in general, markets, politics, etc were going short and long term.
A lot of his predictions were bang on.
During the question and answer, after his talk, one of the first questions asked was,
” Where do you think the Dow will be in 25 years?”
( most people were in their mid 40’s so 25 years in the future would have been start of their retirement).

He immediately said ” The Dow will be around 26,000.”

Shocked silence from the crowd. A few people laughed out loud.
The Dow was sitting at about 3000 at that time.

He then gave a multitude of reasons why.
Seems he was right.

#5 Cheese on 01.23.22 at 2:56 pm

There are things you can’t control, I remind myself to watch this now and then to feel a little better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPeavDDlJpM

It doesn’t always work……

#6 TurnerNation on 01.23.22 at 2:56 pm

WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON. Laid out bare

1. Media Control. Only the manufacturing of consent.
The proof is here: https://imgur.com/a/gW0KXqU

2. Why is Kanada targeted for Financial destruction. Social destruction, Cultural destruction?

(Somebody who got just back from Mexico wrote this. We at North Korea levels here folks: “”People in other countries don’t know what is happening in Canada. I tell them, no sports, no restaurants. Why they ask?””)

ANSWER: We have the LAND. Yep Land is the goal of any war.
That cold March week, 2020, which (battle) campaign kicked-off? It was “Keep your Rent”. To end property rights and get you off your LAND.

A hint was that new condo construction never got shut down. The globalists want us to 100 Million people here:

https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/


— Every system designed to protect us has been turned against us The hospital capacity guys??

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/01/22/orangeville-hospital-using-kitchen-staff-to-fill-nursing-vacancies-union/amp/
“Orangeville hospital using kitchen staff to assist with nursing shortage: union”

https://tnc.news/2021/12/16/provinces-sacked-almost-10000-health-care-workers-over-vaccine-mandates/
“Provinces sacked almost 10,000 health care workers over vaccine mandates

#7 Beagleface on 01.23.22 at 3:06 pm

Oh contraire, mon ami, everyone needs to read Garth’s blog. Life just gets better and better after reading his daily words of wisdom.

#8 ogdoad on 01.23.22 at 3:08 pm

Well, if buddy boy is right about a 12000 pt. plop then I hope everybody has some excess cash sitting around. I smell buying op.

Question is – if there is a small sell-off, could investment algorithms exacerbate the situation, causing it to be much worse?

I’m sure you’re right, Garth. In the case of unforeseeable outcomes, I’m sure your plan is too.

Og

#9 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 3:24 pm

But it almost always ends up okay.

——————————————

“almost”. Nice caveat.

#10 TurnerNation on 01.23.22 at 3:25 pm

THE FUTURE. On the permanent electronic Lockdowns.
What did you ever use a QR code for? What do you use Blockchain for? Nothing. It was built for us.

https://www.weforum.org/videos/common-pass-travelling-the-world-in-the-covid-era
https://id2020.org/


— Fool me once. Is this how they will ruin small business for good. They are “Non Essential” right?

.Some Ottawa-area public health experts would like to see the province’s COVID-19 vaccine passport require Ontarians have a booster shot in order to enter a range of indoor establishments. (cbc.ca)

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-germanys-bars-and-restaurants-in-despair-amid-changing-pandemic-curbs/a-60519089
“Germany’s bars and restaurants in despair amid changing pandemic curbs. “In Germany, it is generally only people who have been fully vaccinated (three shots) who are allowed to step inside a restaurant or cafe without first taking a COVID-19 test”

https://twitter.com/Mark_G_Davies/status/1330068794753110024
Klaus Schwab’s “COVID-19: The Great Reset”:
We will see how CONTACT TRACING has an unequalled capacity and a quasi-essential place in the armoury needed to combat COVID-19, while at the same time being positioned to become an enabler of MASS SURVEILLANCE.

https://twitter.com/cadcitizen/status/1484747617519255554
Canadians, your QRCode can now be globally scanned.
Ont’s vxpass now has links globally including DE,IL,HI,NY,VA,CO,WA,PR, Australia. One QRcode system for the globe. Australian scanners will block access to Ont residents QRcodes https://files.ontario.ca/apps/verify/verifyRulesetON.json

#11 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 3:32 pm

12,000 point crash is 4%.

Huh

#12 Søren Angst on 01.23.22 at 3:33 pm

“Why would financial markets have a cow just as we are looking at emerging full-force form a two-year global plague? … (oil hit a seven-year high last week on expected increased demand)”

Exactement Mon Liège.

And, yeah oil.

—————————

“Omicron could birth another evil variant twin.”

It officially just did (unofficially found in early Dec 2021).

BA.2

‘Stealth Omicron’

#13 Concerned Citizen on 01.23.22 at 3:34 pm

Stagflation has been a thing before, and it can be a thing again. So rising rates don’t necessarily have to be a sign of only economic growth.

The data tells us excess savings accumulated during COVID-19 have mostly been by high income and/or already wealthy households. Everyone else is struggling as real wages fall and housing costs have gone stratospheric. Not a recipe for boom times in my opinion – in fact I’d argue it’s a recipe for medium to long-term stagnation.

As for markets, U.S. markets have rarely been more expensive in history than they are now. And surely the recovery has been priced in by now, if not significantly more than priced in. If central banks start doing their job, I expect this bubble will end much like the previous ones have. We’ll have to see…

#14 Mr Happy on 01.23.22 at 3:40 pm

So last night I had a chat with a retired Doctor who knows quite a bit about viruses etc.

I asked him… So what happened to the virus that was killing people? He said it is gone, burnt out and then explained it to me.

The Corona Virus came out, it was bad and killed a lot of people. But then it mutated to the Delta variant. Very contagious but not quite as bad. Then it mutated again to the Omicron variant. Highly contagious but very mild. He said viruses mutate then slowly burn themselves out. There is a 99% chance that we will ALL get the Omicron virus. But is is mild. We have friends that just had it and as one friend put it…no big deal! That said, friends that got it were triple vaxxed so no idea what happens if not vaccinated. One friend had absolutely NO symptoms!! Tested because of an exposure to another person and the test was positive. Otherwise they would not even have known they had it!!

All that said… it is time for the governments to stop all the Covid protocols, passports etc. Let it run its course and we will have herd immunity by March and we can get back to some semblance of normal!!

#15 RE_Investor on 01.23.22 at 3:42 pm

……. Forget the bears. They almost always have something to sell. Ignore the noise. It’s just distracting.

Excellent advice ! ! ! I always stick to my RE plan, which has always worked for the last 32 years.

#16 Søren Angst on 01.23.22 at 3:44 pm

Re:

‘Stealth Omicron’

Here’s what we know…

https://www.forbes.com/video/6292926504001/heres-what-we-know-about-stealth-omicron–the-fast-moving-sublineage-of-the-variant-gaining-ground-in-europe/?sh=1d7766644a17

= Not much.

——————–

Better watch out Omicron Kenobi.

Stealth is going to put a bite in your buttocks that will take a month of Sundays to shake off.

#17 espressobob on 01.23.22 at 3:44 pm

A 40% correction is the stuff dreams are made of. It’s what seperates the wheat from the chaff.

Bring it on!

#18 Leichendiener on 01.23.22 at 3:47 pm

Bloomberg is covering Jeremy Grantham’s dire predictions. Hang on to her Newt, she’s headed for the rhubarb. As always, do nothing and watch.

#19 Linda on 01.23.22 at 3:48 pm

Today’s dog photo shows joy in ‘the simple things’:) So much for doom & gloom!

#20 Dave on 01.23.22 at 3:50 pm

Garth, why is housing immune to corrections? I would have expected something to happen by now, yet prices continue going up. At least BTC had the good graces to crash like crazy.

#21 WTF on 01.23.22 at 4:01 pm

Time in, not timing…….

https://www.ft.com/content/0b4be1bc-1790-49bc-b5c6-bfff2e52e02b

#22 Quintilian on 01.23.22 at 4:02 pm

Your chart 1928-2021 is meaningless.

Totally new paradigm.

From 1928 forward economic fundamentals have gradually gave way to hype, and elaborate maneuvering of creative spreadsheet tinkering, as well as enhanced manipulation of the business reporting media.

All that, and a sprinkling of corrupted politicking and it makes forecasting short term stock market moves no more scientific than the horoscope.

Monday the market could dive or spike, but not for economic reasons.

Play the short term game, but don’t be under the illusion that it is anything more than a casino.

#23 Søren Angst on 01.23.22 at 4:07 pm

Proof that Omicron Kenobi’s (a.k.a., BA.1) days are numbered…

https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1484190295453581314

Poor Denmark.

Soon to be poor rest of us.

——————

Meanwhile…Canada well positioned to test and find BA.2 and convinced it has reached peak *:

https://i.imgur.com/OQ9rEZF.png

* by Divination.

#24 DML on 01.23.22 at 4:20 pm

I started investing in 1980’s
This is what I’ve learned (the hard way)about a balanced, diversified portfolio:

Black Monday 1987
Best option- buy more
Second best option- do nothing
Worst option- Sell

Tech crash 2000
Same

Financial crisis 2008
Same

Covid crash 2000
Same

Obvious in hindsight I know , but emotions can really mess with your thinking in the moment.
GLTA

#25 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 4:22 pm

#11 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 3:32 pm
12,000 point crash is 4%.

Huh

———————————————

Try a google search before you push submit with your dumb dumb comments. It’s a wonder you make any money at all in the markets!

#26 Wrk.dover on 01.23.22 at 4:27 pm

#82 Shaggy on 01.23.22 at 12:13 pm
#72 Wrk.dover
_________________________

Thanks for such a well detailed tutorial.

What I apparently have placed, are open market orders, on a percentage of the shares inside a few of the dozen equity positions, in my D&B portfolio.

I had voluntarily sold several equities at the top, on Ex date, and picked up a to buy list from my advisor, which I am timed purchasing into the expected dip, which grew beyond my wildest expectation, all over an impending 0.1% interest increase.

I’m not going all nutso but for one example just facing the reality of Fang heavy ETF’s being revalued somewhat closer to Earth by the broad market. I’m second guessing everything because of being advised to buy SPY a few weeks ago in our Non-reg USD acct., among several well advised diversified holds in my TSFA.

I finally tried owning SPY on Thursday, but sold Friday, causing much less pain than buying a few weeks ago would have yielded. Our consolidated portfolio would now be down 0.5% if I had gone on that one lone sled ride.

I do fix everything else I own, so I’m being somewhat proactive rather than a being ghost client this month, which is working in my favor, while all wintered in.

#27 Toronto_CA on 01.23.22 at 4:28 pm

“told us Friday there’d be a 12,000 point crash on the Dow tomorrow (Monday). That would wipe away 4% of the market’s value.”

Should that be 40%?

Obviously an extra zero invaded. Make that 1,200. – Garth

#28 Søren Angst on 01.23.22 at 4:28 pm

#14 Mr Happy

“Czech folk singer dies after intentionally catching COVID-19”

https://globalnews.ca/news/8524409/hana-horka-czech-singer-covid-death/

——————

I’d get a new Doctor if I were you.

But WTF, there is bound to be an ICU near you; thus, you should go there (sans mask), waft the breath from an Omicron patient towards your nose and mouth, catch it and let us know how it worked out for you.

You know, money where your keyboard’s at.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/590401-people-should-not-try-to-intentionally-catch

Heck, even righty Fox News thinks your Doc is a nutter…

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/trend-of-intentionally-catching-omicron-variant-is-never-a-good-idea-doctor-warns

#29 kc on 01.23.22 at 4:31 pm

coming into a town near you…. trucks are heading to Ontario

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fURTdBZBJhg

#30 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.23.22 at 4:33 pm

WHILE AT THE SHREDDER.
There is a lot of recession talk going around. Clarification. It is not a supply driven recession. There is no such thing. It has always been demand driven. The demand collapsed in 2020, so corporations reacted by cancelling orders. Now the demand has picked up a bit and corporations are trying to get some supply back. But it’s not easy to suddenly increase capacity and nobody wants to take large risks, such as investing a lot of money to increase supply, only to realize that the demand is not there in the end. It’s demand driven in the large scheme of things. Repeat, all the supply issues in the short term are driven by demand. New point. There is no way on God’s green earth that the current economy can walk on it’s own, especially with inflation surging. The Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner and at this belated juncture is picking our poison. Inflationist, enjoy the moment, your time is about up. Crashing demand will see to that. Without revenue even the too big to fail companies can, and will bleed out pretty fast. They have a ton of fixed costs, just to keep the lights on. I am not a sophisticated investor and I do not have a room full of trading tool monitors to decipher the Delphi Oracle’s secret information. No, just a whole lot of common sense. Sleep tight my beauties.

#31 twofatcats on 01.23.22 at 4:48 pm

Jan 23 Today’s flipped ‘Principal Residences’

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/LzQ1y5Eqw9dyqdeK/49-MCCRAE-Drive-Welland-40198888-40198888-X5469306

https://www.zolo.ca/st-catharines-real-estate/251-pelham-road#sold-history

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/gAaOyL8QVMZyGxMb/264-OAKDALE-Avenue-202-St-Catharines-40195888-X5470389

#32 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.23.22 at 4:51 pm

#20 Dave on 01.23.22 at 3:50 pm
Garth, why is housing immune to corrections? I would have expected something to happen by now, yet prices continue going up. At least BTC had the good graces to crash like crazy.
==============================
Dave BTC is what really?
Ya cant eat it live in it or anything else. It swings wildly and one solar flare would ruin your day.

Housing has piles of reasons its boomed.
For one there’s not near enough to supply the demand. I think I saw there’s about 1/3 of the listings as last year.
There’s only so many places to put all that paper money that pays a yield and is an inflationary hedge. Bonds sure ain’t
Building materials sky rocketed.
The cost in taxes permitting and getting a raw piece of land up and ready to build on is expensive. Add on all the build taxes and the cost is off the charts thanks to your government making sure they get their fair share.
Talking up affordable housing policies to save us is absolute crap. They have done EXACTLY the opposite of helping.
I feel sorry for first time buyers. Its sad days and I sure as heck don’t see a crash.
I know a few things as I’ve developed, built and own a fair chunk of RE..

#33 Mark Caldwell on 01.23.22 at 5:00 pm

hold my bag. lots of you boomers will be the greatest fool, i doubt walmart’s gonna need door greeters when this all goes down, whatever will you do?

#34 earthboundmisfit on 01.23.22 at 5:03 pm

Unless, of course, it’s all been pre-engineered in Davos, as part of the Great Reset.

#35 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 5:17 pm

#25 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 4:22 pm
#11 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 3:32 pm
12,000 point crash is 4%.

Huh

———————————————

Try a google search before you push submit with your dumb dumb comments. It’s a wonder you make any money at all in the markets!

////////////

I guess you were oblivious to the fact there was a typo in the first paragraph (which has since been corrected).

You are Stone’s little bitch aren’t you.
Good dog.

#36 T-Man on 01.23.22 at 5:28 pm

The mainstream mockingbird media beats the drums for war. They belong to multinational corporations, who also own the military industrial complex. War is very profitable for them. Same with big pharma, who push their poisons through their brethren over at the msm. It’s a small club, and we’re not in it. They crave war, because $$$$. They don’t send their own children to war, but they will send yours. So is it ethical to support such entities by owning their stocks? Yur with us, or ur with the t’rrists: Dubya

#37 AACI Homedog on 01.23.22 at 5:36 pm

Maybe Adele & Drake could go away on a quick flight to Mars someday soon…sigh…

#38 Amanda Fisher on 01.23.22 at 5:55 pm

Now is the best time to buy Toronto real estate. Brad Lamb has given me the opportunity to profit bigly in the booming Canadian economy.

#39 Tom on 01.23.22 at 6:07 pm

The market shouldn’t go down IF it wasn’t at an overinflated level. Since asset prices are in the stratosphere, really don’t need any reason for the housing and stock market to crash so hopefully we’ll see that soon. So far, it’s nothing (unless you “invest” in ARKK type nonsense)

#40 Network Admin on 01.23.22 at 6:39 pm

FYI, it is not really “Putin-vs-Ukraine”, it is more like “Russia demanding security guarantees”. Ukraine is small part of it. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato

#41 Sunshowers on 01.23.22 at 6:45 pm

At least the market won’t crash as much as bitcoin did.

#42 Naga on 01.23.22 at 6:46 pm

Garth – I m not saying it’s going to happen but look back at the 70’s into the early 80’s.

Stagflation killed the equity markets.

History has a habit of repeating itself.

I am happy to be enjoying my position on stage regardless of what happens.

#43 Omicron Kenobi on 01.23.22 at 6:51 pm

‘Omicron could birth another evil variant twin.’

Ha. More like triplets and quintuplets.

Garth, I AM their father.

#44 JR on 01.23.22 at 6:52 pm

This is a keynesian beauty contest, featuring the stock market.
You don’t actually think that stocks are worth less on monday, but you think your neighbor thinks the stocks are worth less.. So what do you do? Whats the nash equilibrium?

#45 Nonplused on 01.23.22 at 6:58 pm

“The labour market denies it (back to pre-pandemic levels in Canada and the US).”

Actually, no. The unemployment rate is looking good but that is due to a large increase in the number of people “not in the workforce”. But the trend is in the right direction.

This is one you can check with your eyes. Just look at all the shops closed down and how hard it is to get someone to help you find something at Home Depot. Restaurants at 50% capacity. Car dealers with no cars to sell. Good times are probably ahead, but they are going to be better than this! This still sucks.

#46 Greg on 01.23.22 at 6:59 pm

Usually after 3 days of downtrend the market upticks. Next week should be greener. They seem to have left over infusion funds still lingering around for a prop up.

#47 Barb on 01.23.22 at 7:23 pm

Leslie, it looks as though that pup loves Vancouver the best!

“The best tool you have to ensure that is time”.
Agreed, but more than a few of us worry about investments as we’re heading towards the 9th inning.
The REAL consolation is knowing Garth’s team looks out for us all.

As for tomorrow, James Webb Space Telescope arrives at L2!
https://scitechdaily.com/webb-space-telescopes-million-mile-journey-to-l2-is-nearly-complete

Science will grow by leaps and bounds with JWST.

#48 Meh on 01.23.22 at 7:23 pm

#22 Quintilian on 01.23.22 at 4:02 pm
Your chart 1928-2021 is meaningless.

Totally new paradigm.

From 1928 forward economic fundamentals have gradually gave way to hype, and elaborate maneuvering of creative spreadsheet tinkering, as well as enhanced manipulation of the business reporting media.

All that, and a sprinkling of corrupted politicking and it makes forecasting short term stock market moves no more scientific than the horoscope.

Monday the market could dive or spike, but not for economic reasons.

Play the short term game, but don’t be under the illusion that it is anything more than a casino.

——————————————————————
Bingo.

Fundamentals, no central bank manipulation and free price discovery markets are so 14 years ago.

#49 Dogman01 on 01.23.22 at 7:34 pm

Just want to juxtapose a couple of articles:

China mined a record amount of coal in 2021. It might produce even more this year
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/business/china-coal-production-record-intl-hnk/index.html

Why is it Canada’s ‘duty’ to destroy its economy and Confederation in the pursuit of net zero?
Rex Murphy: Why is it Canada’s ‘duty’ to destroy its economy and Confederation in the pursuit of net zero? | National Post

We displace our wealth and industry for the benefit of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia, while making not a whiff of difference to the Climate.

I recall an ethics class; ensure your own well-being before trying to take on cause to help others, Canada’s current economic health:
“can be accurately caricatured as a crystal vase full of excrement parked on the very edge of a high shelf over a hard marble floor. The hope is that nobody is going to sneeze because the sound pressure might cause it to go over the edge.”

#50 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 7:36 pm

#35 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 5:17 pm
#25 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 4:22 pm
#11 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 3:32 pm
12,000 point crash is 4%.

Huh

———————————————

Try a google search before you push submit with your dumb dumb comments. It’s a wonder you make any money at all in the markets!

////////////

I guess you were oblivious to the fact there was a typo in the first paragraph (which has since been corrected).

You are Stone’s little bitch aren’t you.
Good dog.

————————————————

Lol! I win!

#51 Garth's Son Drake on 01.23.22 at 7:38 pm

Bitcoin is down 50% from November, when it was trading around 70k.

#52 Canadarm2 on 01.23.22 at 7:45 pm

If you’ve been investing for a while, say 15+ years, I’d hazard a guess that, hopefully, by this point, it’s not even “your” money that you’re losing during market dips but rather, simply a nibble or two at those illustrious gains, especially since the start of 2019. To have benefitted from a 35%+ gain over just these short years in a B&D portfolio should never make you scared of a 5% dip ever again…

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.22 at 7:46 pm

@#37 Homedog
“Maybe Adele & Drake could go away on a quick flight to Mars someday soon…sigh…”

++++

Is mars far enough?
Only a 20 minute time lag on communications.
On second thought.
Could they take Kim, Kanye and Ponzie ?

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.22 at 7:50 pm

@#47 Barb.

Yep.
That Webb telescope is some amazing tech.

I’ve been googling ( sorry Ponzie) the flight the past week or so watching it “slow down” as it climbs out of earth’s gravity.

https://jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbLaunch/whereIsWebb.html

Its almost there after 29 days and 900,000 miles.

#55 WTF on 01.23.22 at 8:23 pm

#15 RE shill. “Excellent advice ! ! ! I always stick to my RE plan, which has always worked for the last 32 years.”
_______________________________________________________________________
You Perfectly timed it troll. Got in Just after the last immolation of the RE market……….

No doubt u have purchased many props to secure your future…..

#56 conan on 01.23.22 at 8:25 pm

Sometimes Captain Correction knocks on the door.

#57 Drinking on 01.23.22 at 8:27 pm

I will do what I have done in the past nothing and let it ride out. Could be the biggest mistake of my life when so many of the top investor groups including Buffet are saying take precautions. This is going to be a whirlwind year. This not like the past; this is a whole new ball game!

#58 JSS on 01.23.22 at 8:27 pm

Let’s play opposite and say that tomorrow Monday, the markets will be green

#59 Mattl on 01.23.22 at 8:39 pm

So invest in a diversified way. Eschew individual stocks. Go with index ETFs. Have global exposure, not just maple. Be invested across many sectors, and in large and small enterprises. Have balance with insurance-type fixed income assets. Get interest rate protection with preferreds and other floating-rate securities. Use the tax shelters you have been given, fully. Understand pullbacks are normalities, not punishments. Forget the bears. They almost always have something to sell. Ignore the noise. It’s just distracting.

————————————————

Love this, right to the point and timeless

#60 Mattl on 01.23.22 at 8:52 pm

Stone – YYD portfolio update please.

#61 truefacts on 01.23.22 at 9:08 pm

@29 kc…

And the truckers wanted to raise $1 million to offset their costs to protest all these lockdowns, but look at the support they’ve received from thousands of people…

https://www.gofundme.com/f/taking-back-our-freedom-convoy-2022

#62 Bagholding Redditor on 01.23.22 at 9:17 pm

I bought BMO ZJK at $19.54. Should I HODL or dump the junk stock?

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.23.22 at 9:47 pm

#25 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 4:22 pm
#11 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 3:32 pm
12,000 point crash is 4%.

Huh

———————————————

Try a google search before you push submit with your dumb dumb comments. It’s a wonder you make any money at all in the markets!
——————-
Well, I would not do that.
You know that Google searches are ordered in sequence of which article gets the most hits, not which is the
the most accurate.
That’s how they make the money.
It’s like going to the Library and and asking the librarian which books she recommends.
If she gets paid by the books she recommends……..
Even CEF knows that.

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.23.22 at 9:49 pm

#58 JSS on 01.23.22 at 8:27 pm
Let’s play opposite and say that tomorrow Monday, the markets will be green
———————
Sustainable (green) industries are the now and future.
Bet accordingly.

#65 Sail Away on 01.23.22 at 9:54 pm

#52 Canadarm2 on 01.23.22 at 7:45 pm

If you’ve been investing for a while, say 15+ years, I’d hazard a guess that, hopefully, by this point, it’s not even “your” money that you’re losing during market dips but rather, simply a nibble or two at those illustrious gains, especially since the start of 2019. To have benefitted from a 35%+ gain over just these short years in a B&D portfolio should never make you scared of a 5% dip ever again…

———

Exactly. Well said. But almost nobody thinks logically.

When I mow my dandelions, liberating the seeds to float freely throughout my neighbours’ manicured lawns, I, along with the bees, enjoy the profusion of new dandelion life, but fully recognize that the dandelions themselves did most of the work.

#66 Sail Away on 01.23.22 at 10:02 pm

#60 Mattl on 01.23.22 at 8:52 pm

Stone – YYD portfolio update please.

——–

He’s down -42%. Turns out a portfolio fully diversified across all the weed stocks is prone to correction. Who knew?

#67 Ronaldo on 01.23.22 at 10:07 pm

How would you like a variable mortgage rate at .85%. Check this out.

https://www.canwise.com/rates

#68 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 10:21 pm

#50 The Woosh on 01.23.22 at 7:36 pm
#35 Penny Henny on 01.23.22 at 5:17 pm

You are Stone’s little bitch aren’t you.
Good dog.

————————————————

Lol! I win!

///////////////

Yes you win Woosh!

We crown you king of the losers.

#69 Doug t on 01.23.22 at 10:23 pm

I just finished watching Don’t Look Up – sooooo hellz bellz lol let er rip

#70 Doug in London on 01.23.22 at 10:32 pm

If stocks take a big drop tomorrow then what? We’ll see Boxing Day sales come a month late, bring it on!

#71 Stl on 01.23.22 at 11:00 pm

Loved the shot at Drake

#72 Shannon Brock on 01.23.22 at 11:35 pm

This is the second time I’ve almost agreed with you. Close but no cigar.

1) Bonds still suck. Lots of high paying dividend value shares on sale. Lip smacking. Will you throw your cell phone through the mail slot at Bell? Not likely. Yummy 6% yield there. Dollar cost averaging is the ideal strategy. I suspect it might last through May..even July. It’s a perfect time to chill and buy across the trough.

2) Putin is not building a Blitzkrieg Front in Ukraine. Biden and Trudeau are in big trouble at the polls.

3) Trudeau has lost all of Canada except the 57 GTA Bloc Votes his buddy Gerry and his Super Genius Team assure will tear Canadas flag down to half mast.

4) Pied Pipers will always find enough op-ed writers and other mindless rats to take control of daily media. Do nothing.

5) Trudeau wants fear. Fear is an opposition killer. One mask, two masks, three jabs, four? Empty shelves , empty promises? A military distraction in Ukraine? As long as our HOC is closed Trudeau will continue to find ways to erode your freedom and continue to fund oil and gas exploration in Somalia rather than Alberta jobs.

#73 MalcolmM on 01.24.22 at 12:23 am

Earnings may be up 45% over last year but last year isn’t a good comparison. How about comparing to pre pandemic?

Any successful investor knows markets are forward looking. So listing some positives in the economy as justification for today’s absurd valuations is misleading. Those are baked into today’s valuations, more like over baked in.

#74 Ustabe on 01.24.22 at 12:33 am

I had a dream that I had you all for dinner…haven’t had a scary dream in a long while!

Anyway, here is what we enjoyed (for 2)

Gather a bottle of strained tomatoes, a bottle of clam nectar, some olive oil or butter, some fresh basil, clams (steamers, in shell), prawns, head off not peeled, some scallops, some halibut or cod or other firm white fish.

Get your saute pan hot, oil it, add some chopped up onions, some red pepper flakes, some S&P and when onions are soft a whole bunch of minced garlic. Stir 3 times and dump the fry pan into your soup pot.

Now, one by one put a nice crust of all the fish, prawns, etc. Don’t cook through. Into the soup pot. Hopefully your saute pan is crusty, a splash of white wine, a glug of the clam nectar and scrape the fond off…Into the soup pot. Add the rest of the clam nectar, the strained tomatoes and more white wine til your liquid looks proper depth. Remember the clams will release more liquid.

Bring the soup to a low simmer and add the clams to steam open.

Don’t add crab, it tends to dissolve into small flecks and salmon tends to dominate the whole thing.

As soon as your clams are open and done sprinkle the basil , cut in chiffonade, stir and serve with a sliced baguette.

If it is two of you don’t buy too much fish….a pound of clams because they are all shell, 300 grams of prawns, 200 grams of everything else. Peel the prawns if you will but do incorporate the shells into the soup pot from the very beginning including the saute part, pick them out before service.

Takes about 20 minutes, start to sitting, eating.

#75 protea on 01.24.22 at 12:41 am

Can anyone shed any light as to why we don’t see Dolce Vita posting on the daily weblog !! I for one enjoyed getting his perspective from an Italian point of view??I trust and hope that he is doing well and that we will see his frequent posts once again.

#76 Damifino on 01.24.22 at 12:55 am

#52 Canadarm2

it’s not even “your” money that you’re losing during market dips
——————————-

Interesting take. Call me old fashioned, but…

I can’t seem to shake the idea that any money coming my way from whatever source (except for what the CRA extracts) is actually “mine” regardless of how far ahead of the game I may be. Even if I win a trifecta on the nags, it all belongs to Yours Truly.

Conversely, any money I happen to lose is also, in fact, “mine”. Or, more accurately, it “was” mine. It brings me no comfort pretending it never really existed.

I’ll grant you though, that any money I’ve spent is no longer mine. That I can live with.

#77 I'mshort_corpdebt on 01.24.22 at 1:08 am

Why would financial markets have a cow just as we are looking at emerging full-force form a two-year global plague?
———————–

Sine today the comments were on the light side, I thought I’d add my 2 cents. At first I thought it might be an awfully long comment but I think I found a way to shorten it and keep it as brief as possible.

So, how can $35T in market value possibly vanish into thin air just like that? You don’t have to search very far if one is to google the family office of Bill Hwang and the Archegos blowup. The leverage and the methods used in this insane world of financial engineering is not one freak incident. Everything related to the Wall Street finance groups all around the planet use the same methods to create 10x,20x,30x leveraged bets to jack the system. So how likely has $3.5T of assets been pumped 10x to make it look like $35T during this 2yr pandemic? We’re likely to find out, soon enough.

#78 Balmuto on 01.24.22 at 1:13 am

Why would financial markets have a cow just as we are looking at emerging full-force form a two-year global plague? – Garth

The reopening trade is so last year. Fully priced in. Even after last week’s correction the S&P 500 is still 30% higher than the prepandemic all time high that it hit on Feb. 19, 2020. It’s like COVID never happened.

#79 Estalabun on 01.24.22 at 2:09 am

High inflation of 15% or more(shadow stats by John Williams) if they dont raise interest rates this will kill US dollar and the whole economy(hyperinflation) , but if they raise rates and tightening the bonds and assets purchases (QT- Quantitative tightening) global depression, its bad for both ways but what can we do

#80 Bronze Bullet on 01.24.22 at 2:24 am

Yes, markets go up as value of money in which it is measured goes fast down.

How about reverting to the mean growth after the excessive valuations as of lately? That could wipe out 50 % of market value easily and that is Grantham’s statement, pretty much a 3 sigma event in valuations.

And no, it was not a rant, it is a pretty detailed and convincing statement supported by data.

The only way he could we wrong is lack of any increase in rates which based on current inflation will be catastrophic to any economy. At some point the Fed will be forced to act strongly, you can’t have a strong currency and bubbles everywhere due to low rates as Grantham point out.

It will be a political choice between the value of the dollar and the markets, at which point the dollar will be
forcefully chosen as the more important piece of the puzzle.

Nasdaq has increased from 1600 in 2008 to 14 k now, is that sustainable?

Based on that argument I can argue that housing will keep going up + it is tax free on the first residence, what can go wrong?

The expectations of any returns in the next decade different from preservation of value in inflation protected assets + some value stocks is naive.

#81 Bronze Bullet on 01.24.22 at 2:36 am

Just to show you how delusional are the idiots in power:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rush-immigrants-slow-bank-canada-151404309.html

The inflation will be sustained as there will new wave of cheap debt slave labour to be imported.

Apparently:

Somewhere out there are tons of skilled qualified workers who would like to come here and work for peanuts.

Pay 2 millions for an old shack, soon to be 3 millions with 30 k salary, if lucky.

Pay big taxes, will extremely high cost of living, only to increase.

No increase in salaries whatsoever is driving real inflation of 12-15 %.

—————-

The wet dreams of failed economic model based on cheap credit and beating the victims with a stick to pay it back.

My bet is on the import of low skills immigrants who wont be able to melt in quickly and will be more of a burden mid to short term vs. driver of growth.

Yes, the banks will give them cheap credit, CHMC will insure their mortgages, thinks will look great on paper but as for the real economy.

The thingy is literally hitting the fan.

As for the die hard supporters of this economic regime:
That’s it folks, you are just cheap labour, to be replaced by even cheaper by the greedy, stingy, stupid owners.

#82 Bronze Bullet on 01.24.22 at 3:53 am

The notion that Canadian inflation is lower than the US inflation is idiotic.

Yet the statistics that ‘measures inflation’ based on spending habits of broken and deeply in debt sheeple reports exactly that.

Cost of living in the meantime increases in double digits.

Why?

Because the cost of everything that matters except housing is based on international prices – energy, food etc.

For house prices we know that based on cheap credit it skyrocketed.

So how exactly low/capped wages here will influence the international market’s price of oil and food? Hint: It will not.

The sheeple will spend less on food and energy staying in the cold and hungry and it will be reported as lower inflation, an excuse to keep the rates lower and to keep the housing perpetum mobile, the only engine of the economy left running.

Theoretically the prices of services should not increase that fast, but can someone on this blog please report such experience as of lately?

Enjoy the show.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.22 at 7:40 am

A two front war with Russia and China?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa/u-s-carriers-in-south-china-sea-taiwan-reports-further-chinese-incursion-idUSKBN2JY0O7

Putin has nothing to lose but his stolen billions.
Xi has nothing to lose but face and a billion people…

The next two weeks could be interesting.

#84 One of those cowboys on 01.24.22 at 7:47 am

Wait!! Read the room!! What if there are changes afoot that will change everything?? What would Trudeau do If he puts Canada on a war footing and cancels parliament. Rate change will mean nothing. This is Trudeaus big chance to take control. In all honesty, what leader wouldn’t?

1) Russia will come to the aid of Donetsk within weeks. Oil will go ballistic. The only sanction left to apply on Putin is Energy. NATO will have to shut down Nordstream and a deep freeze will let Putin negotiate anything he wants.

2) Seeing Putin’s success China will Blitzkrieg Taiwan. Semis will skyrocket. Aircraft carriers burn a lot of oil. Chinas property crash will disappear. Domestic liquidity will flood CB. Biden has no possibility to fight on two fronts.

Take away. China has space to move, so does Putin. Biden creates a generational opportunity to gain large. Xi will can the Olympics in exchange for Taiwan. Front Two will be a full invasion of the South China Sea.

This is historic. NATO will capitulate. Canada will lose the Arctic as soon as UK draws in its ships currently there to protect themselves.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.22 at 8:06 am

Has Canada decided what type of new jets it requires?

We’ve been talking about it for 25+ years.

Most of the pilots flying our CF-18’s weren’t born when we acquired them.

Perhaps when all our jets are shot out of the sky in the first week of an international “incident” our dithering, handwashing, politically correct politicians will make a decision.
Alas.
Far too little, far far too late.

#86 macduff on 01.24.22 at 9:08 am

One of the most fascinating elements of social media, and blog comment sections, is that they enable people with zero credibility to espouse their opinions with the belief that someone will actually take them seriously.

#87 same old song on 01.24.22 at 9:55 am

“But rising rates are a sign of economic expansion, not contraction.”
__________________________

that is not totally correct..

rates are rising because “inflation” (ie, cpi, not real inflation) is 7%

that’s because the US FED PRINTED 80% of all USD in existence in the last 2 years. so, “inflation” will continue at these high levels of 5-7% at least for another year or two, if not longer, depending how slow they move to removing the stimulus. if they blink, and don’t remove it.. you’ve then got serious inflation problems like the 70’s.

supply chains and worker shortages have nothing to do with inflation. it’s got everything to do with money printing. if they didn’t print money, price levels would be the same. actually, they would gently decrease over time. if there are worker shortages, and workers demand higher wages, the money has to come from somewhere. workers wages rise, but prices have to fall somewhere else.

in this case, everything is rising because of money printing. that’s the sole reason for “inflation”.

STOCK prices MAY be determined by earnings, but they are ALSO determined by INTEREST rates. you know. present value of future earnings and dividends? if rates are 0.25% today, and rise to 2% next year, what do you think that will do to VALUATIONS of stock prices?

where you ARE correct is if you have the right portfolio, then you should be able to weather these ups and downs. that doesn’t stop people from speculating. or stocks from crashing.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.22 at 10:10 am

@#86 macduff

” with the belief that someone will actually take them seriously.”

+++

Seriously?

#89 the Jaguar on 01.24.22 at 10:13 am

Snippet- NP. (Honey, I left the keys on the kitchen counter. The place is all yours. )

‘The Great Urban Exodus’

“New data released by Statistics Canada shows that, for the first time in a generation, the population of Toronto and Montreal actually shrank, in what has become a bona fide urban exodus across this country.’

Over the past six years, the number of Torontonians annually moving to other parts of Ontario doubled, and the number of Montrealers moving to other parts of Quebec tripled.

Though correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation, it’s hard not to draw a relationship between rising housing prices and demographic decline.

In the past, population decline due to intraprovincial migration was obscured by international immigration. Toronto and Montreal bleed residents every year, but the arrival of new Canadians from all over the globe has historically more than made up for these losses. When the pandemic cratered immigration, it pulled back the curtain on our current system to starkly reveal the demographic costs of overheated and unaffordable housing markets.”

#90 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 10:14 am

Interesting times, folks, interesting times. There may be exciting plays coming.

Retail investors panicking, stop losses being triggered, folks going underwater… emotion rules the hour. It’s a sea of red out there.

Watch and wait. Suppress the chortles. Identify the prey.

#91 miketheengineer on 01.24.22 at 10:15 am

Any idea on how many trucks are headed to Ottawa?

Will our leaders actually be there?

#92 Margin Call on 01.24.22 at 10:19 am

To quote the late Lou Rukeyser;

” The Patsies are selling “

#93 Blister on 01.24.22 at 10:20 am

#85 Crowded.

The Canadian Air Force doesn’t fly in tandem with our allies due to antiquated satellite technology and would never engage an enemy at war. You’re right, they’d be wiped out in seconds by air missiles they would see coming . The Chinese might take them home and use them for taco stands.

#94 Dharma Bum on 01.24.22 at 10:40 am

“The day you need money to buy a house, send your kid to medical school or retire by the sea.” – Garth
——————————————————————————————————

Check.
Check.
Check.

Thanks Garth!

#95 Dharma Bum on 01.24.22 at 10:43 am

#85 Crowdie

Perhaps when all our jets are shot out of the sky in the first week of an international “incident” our dithering, handwashing, politically correct politicians will make a decision.
———————————————————————————————————

The decision has been made LONG ago.

We have a stellar air defence system.

It’s called the United States Air Force.

Dog bless America – defenders of our sorry nation.

#96 Stone on 01.24.22 at 10:58 am

#86 macduff on 01.24.22 at 9:08 am
One of the most fascinating elements of social media, and blog comment sections, is that they enable people with zero credibility to espouse their opinions with the belief that someone will actually take them seriously.

———

I enjoyed that one.

#97 Bill zufelt on 01.24.22 at 11:26 am

Dow is now down 3300 pts since Jan 4—long way to go.The last 2 years was pure nonsense so we got a ways to go.

#98 Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager on 01.24.22 at 11:31 am

Half way to 1200… we’re gonna make it!

#99 SlantySemi on 01.24.22 at 11:48 am

Of the anticipated 1200 point drop on the Dow which you somewhat pooh-pood…

811 points down, 389 to go.
Four trading hours left for more carnage!

The NASDAQ is almost at 4% loss.

Goes to show, even the best bloggers can’t predict market gyrations!

I made no editorial comment on the prediction. The point was, it’s irrelevant. If you invest day-to-day, you ae a fool. Sounds like that may include you. – Garth

#100 Doug in London on 01.24.22 at 12:08 pm

So where’s this big correction? I was hoping for Boxing Day sales and instead got a wussy, pansy minor pullback. I’M DISAPPOINTED!

#101 Slanty-Semi on 01.24.22 at 12:10 pm

I made no editorial comment on the prediction. The point was, it’s irrelevant. If you invest day-to-day, you ae a fool. Sounds like that may include you. – Garth

Quite the contrary, actually. I meet with my advisor twice a year and do minor tweaks as needed for rebalancing etc.
Just keep the bimonthly contributions going and don’t change a thing as the year unfolds.

You are therefore forgiven. – Garth

#102 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 12:17 pm

I must confess to a low-level baseline of adrenaline today, similar to the day of a race, big business deal, or stalking a trophy. The things that make life worth living.

#103 Shawn on 01.24.22 at 12:21 pm

TIMBER!! ? (asking for a friend)

#104 the Jaguar on 01.24.22 at 12:35 pm

@#97 Bill zufelt on 01.24.22 at 11:26 am++

Bill, Bill, Bill……. ( aren’t you the Hedge Fund guy?)

Allow the Jaguar to show you how to weather this storm. Consider these three things as they might apply to the current situation :

-Consider the case of Air Canada Flight 143 with 61 passengers and 8 crew on board, which went into ‘freefall’ on July 23, 1983 from 41,000 feet. Captain Pearson brought her down utilizing the ‘side slip’ method used by glider pilots. Here’s a small video clip reenactment that captures the excitment that day. Maybe the Tiffster and Jerome Powell have seen the movie and will pull this manoever out of their toolbelt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QV-VjJj1F0

– Another way to calm nerves is to employ the ‘Emerson Method’ ( Ralph Waldo). Clutch your pearls and repeat or chant ‘A deep man believes in miracles, waits for them, believes in magic, believes that the orator will decompose his adversary; believes that the evil eye can wither, that the heart’s blessing can heal; that love can exalt talent; can overcome all odds.’

-Or as a last resort, remember the wisdom of Ray Stevens in his timeless classic ‘The Streak’, and simply “Don’t Look, Ethel”.

#105 Quintilian on 01.24.22 at 12:41 pm

Will the Greenspan Put save the day- Again?

#106 Georgie on 01.24.22 at 12:48 pm

To quote the late Lou Rukeyser;

” The Patsies are selling “

……..

lol, not even close

waiting on Powell

there isnt a country in the world that can bail the USA debt. He speaks Wed…..buckle up

Canada is dependent on USA, of course. Those proud nutty Canadians make up 4% of world GDP, a grain in the sand, But think they r important as real estate is high so how can that not be? :)

#107 Shawn on 01.24.22 at 1:06 pm

Georgie says

Those proud nutty Canadians make up 4% of world GDP, a grain in the sand,

*****************************
A grain of sand that is one of only 25 such grains. That seems pretty significant. More like a boulder. Go Canada!

#108 MARK on 01.24.22 at 1:22 pm

OMG BOOMERS, BUY THE DIP!!!! GET IN THERE DOLCE AND SAIL AWAY BUY THE DIP!!

DONT FORGET YOUR FACEMASKS!!!

#109 Trudeau on 01.24.22 at 1:27 pm

hows the covid case count today?

can r kids afford a house in N Bay?

we waiting on the Americans next move?

WHO voted this guy? u idiots happy?

#110 Penny Henny on 01.24.22 at 1:29 pm

#91 miketheengineer on 01.24.22 at 10:15 am
Any idea on how many trucks are headed to Ottawa?

Will our leaders actually be there?

//////////////

Maybe they should go to Tofino.

#111 Faron on 01.24.22 at 1:30 pm

#102 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 12:17 pm

If day trading gets you pumped you have a gambling problem. Being filled with adrenaline means you are blindered. Careful.

Also, can we chortle and seek prey at the same time?

#112 trump vs trudeau on 01.24.22 at 1:35 pm

who is laughing now fellas?

at least ya got 3 washrooms in your universities in case your kid is confused

SUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!

deep breadth ..usa WILL bail canada, …or else we will fall like a rock. DUMB CLOWNS

#113 Sean on 01.24.22 at 1:36 pm

Re #28: the singer died from Delta, but who cares, right – why not omit that detail and tell people Omicron will kill them all, right?
Stop deceiving people and take it easy on that alarmist nonsense, Dolce Vita. We’ve had enough. You and Covid have lost.

Good timing for a post about micro-crash!
Stocks will indeed recover, but as several of us have been saying for years, it won’t happen without deep negative interest rates or more money printing. There are two ways to end this 13 year crisis and only one is politically viable. Let’s just hope those price gains will be nominally worth something.
At least gold is having a good day today, for those of you with properly diversified portfolios!

#114 Diamond Dog on 01.24.22 at 1:36 pm

The DOW is down 1,000. Well, there’s still time for the BIL to pick ’em and close down another 200. So we aren’t prophet’s (save the billion dollar hedge fund manager or BIL which yet remains to be seen) but do we need to be?

The DOW @ 40x earnings coinciding with 6.8% or 7% inflation and a Fed rate near zero is not a market one should logically go long in. Look at the chart below and tell me what you see (big hint, it’s risk):

https://www.financialsamurai.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/inflation-10year-yield-fed-funds-rate.jpg

Every time there’s a spike in inflation, a recession follows. It’s not just from the gut punch of inflation crushing purchasing power, it’s the head punch of the rising Fed rate eating into growth. There is no magic cure for a swollen money supply other than to change human behavior, gobble up excess $ and raise rates. We had our long bull run both rich and poor and now comes the pain.

It’s not just the signs like the Crypto melt or the Russel slide or the tech tumble leading up to this, we should know augmented risk by now when we see it.

If we were looking for earnings signs in Q4, JP Morgan Chase and GS earnings were it on the first day. Inflation took a sizable bite into their bottom line. Earnings season started wrong footed with an economic growth slowdown afoot. Bubbly DOW 40x earnings coupled with 7% inflation and slowing growth, we should not have been surprised by what follows (today is now officially a bear market).

Btw, it isn’t just scary Jeremy predicting a market collapse. His elders, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet aren’t as dramatic, but have widely cautioned investors saying pain will come, they just don’t know when:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMLVvHL4Ad8

Charlie has some short, sweet, excellent advice @ the 13 minute mark in the link above for all ages. “Check our mental bias”. The one mental bias we all struggle with I believe, is confirmation bias. We all look for opinions to match our own because we want to be right until we surrender our egos for the simple want to know the truth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

#115 DER on 01.24.22 at 2:07 pm

Real estate market peaked?

I think so …in every type of market there always seems to be the “last high” reached that just happens right before common sense returns and the downward pressure starts. . For real estate, this happened last week in Stratford, On. There is virtually no listings and this modest house on a 39 ft lot came on at 499 K and I would have thought , OK, they are likely to get 550 K …the agent informed me 72 showings and 12 offers sold at 813K ( 62 % over ask)!! Surely, this is the beginning of the end??

#116 I'mshort_corpdebt on 01.24.22 at 2:07 pm

Merrill Lynch wealth adviser arrested, fired after calling teen smoothie shop worker an ‘immigrant loser…

Hmmm, I’m thinking the staff at Merrill are getting edgy as the mass layoffs (circa 2008) are around the corner as NIRP, ZIRP, Infinity QEeees, Re-hypothecations, etc, etc,etc… are about to come to a grinding halt?

Just enough time to let the rates go up – just slightly – to be ready for credit easing ounce the economy goes down the toilet 2023-24 — BTFD?

#117 re. shawn on 01.24.22 at 2:10 pm

A grain of sand that is one of only 25 such grains. That seems pretty significant. More like a boulder. Go Canada!

…….

LOL!!!!!!

we cant even make our own car. typical canadian, dumb as a box of rocks.

go trudeau! LOL!!!!!!!!!!

#118 leebow on 01.24.22 at 2:12 pm

Superior investments you could have bought today will return 5% more in 2022 than inferior investments of yesterday.

#119 Faron on 01.24.22 at 2:13 pm

Watch Bitcoin and Tesla. Dumb money brought this market up and dumb money will save it if it is to be saved. Oh, and Apple.

#120 Sail Away on 01.24.22 at 2:16 pm

#108 MARK on 01.24.22 at 1:22 pm

OMG BOOMERS, BUY THE DIP!!!! GET IN THERE DOLCE AND SAIL AWAY BUY THE DIP!!

——-

Well, yeah… obviously.

Take some deep breaths, amigo, then buy some index yourself. Or ATVI, which gained another 3% to the upside.

#121 Amurica! on 01.24.22 at 2:43 pm

I’m balanced and diversified (my definition) – 100% US and international equities index funds. I’m also in my 30’s and coming up on my peak earning years, so bring on the correction. If housing falls and I can actually buy a place to live even better.

That said, Garth is wrong that a balanced and diversified portfolio will be unscathed by the Everything Bubble popping while housing falls. Rising interest rates will affect all asset prices. Stocks, bonds, crypto, housing, whatever it is, it is going to get less valuable as interest rates fall.

I just keep buying because I’ve got time on my side. In the long run it almost always works out…

Good luck, boomers. You’ve treated my generation so well by forbidding reasonable housing construction, pushing down wages in a million ways, increasing university fees and medical prices, messing up our political system, etc (sarcasm). I’m sure we’ll return the favor!

#122 espressobob on 01.24.22 at 2:54 pm

Carnage and mayhem in the markets?

Buying opportunities come when all hope is lost.

Love the emotional mindset.

#123 fred on 01.24.22 at 2:59 pm

hows the covid case count today?

………

lol, that stuff is like religion in Canada.

#124 vatodeth on 01.25.22 at 5:10 am

Stagflation – Low economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.

#125 Get Sorted on 01.25.22 at 10:08 am

There’s nothing like a little crash to squeeze out the weak

Today’s another day of misery. More margin calls, more panic, more busted “Diamonds”.