Vertigo

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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What was the biggest market story last year?

For the majority of the year the answer seemed easy: inflation.

After all, by November, US consumer prices had shot up 6.8% y-o-y—the largest annual increase since 1982. You remember 1982? Kids were moonwalking to Michael Jackson’s Thriller, E.T. was phoning home and Argentina was repossessing a tiny South Atlantic island filled with Brits. In other words, entire generations (generation Z, Y and a good chunk of X) had never seen inflation this high in their lifetimes. Even baby boomers, who would rather forget, were forced to uncomfortably recall the late 70s when inflation soared into the double-digits.

So inflation cruised through the first 11 months of 2021 as the year’s clear top story.

But then December arrived, and with it Omicron.

South African scientists discovered it first and by mid-December South Africa’s daily Covid cases, based on the rolling 7-day average, spiked to almost 25,000 from a near-zero level in November. In only a matter of days, Omicron spread throughout most the world, reaching the US in early December. At the time of this writing, US daily Covid cases, based on the rolling 7-day average, have now jumped to almost 500,000. At the start of December, US daily cases were averaging only about 85,000. Needless to say, the rise in infections terrified the public and made media outlets salivate. Nothing sells like fear.

Yet, ironically, despite inflation’s spectacular surge and Omicron’s unbelievably rapid spread, neither qualifies as an important market story in 2021 because equity markets largely ignored both. The S&P 500, for example, advanced 29% on a total-return basis in 2021 with almost 5% of this gain coming in December alone—the month when Omicron exploded. By year-end, both stories were relegated to the category of potential market risks, but they certainly didn’t meaningfully affect market performance.

So why was this?

In the case of inflation, markets concluded that a rapidly improving labour market would eventually ease supply-side constraints, a key inflation contributor. Markets also surmised that natural demand destruction would further ease soaring prices. Take that 6.8% November US CPI number, for instance. It was driven by a 33% y-o-y increase in energy costs and a 58% y-o-y rise in gasoline prices. But did incomes rise by 58% over this same period? Of course not. So markets simply priced in the likely consumer response: less driving and therefore price moderation. Time will tell, of course, but gasoline prices have already started to decline.

It was also assumed that central banks would step in and raise rates to control inflation and by year-end three rate increases were forecast from the Fed in 2022, up from zero anticipated hikes at the start of the year. Normally, the prospect of central bank tightening would cause some temporary market disruption, but not this time. Markets viewed inflation as the greater of the two evils and welcomed the Fed’s new hawkish tone.

In the case of Omicron, markets focused on its reduced severity and the lower (for now) number of hospitalizations. South Africa also provided a possible infection roadmap for other developed nations: after surging to, as mentioned, almost 25,000 Covid cases per day in mid-December, less than three weeks later daily cases plunged below 8,500—a far sharper drop in cases than in any of the country’s previous Covid waves. Markets also quickly recognized that Omicron was arriving at a time when, unlike 2020, developed countries were more prepared, far more vaccinated, using masks more regularly and had highly effective booster shots on the way.

So, this brings us to what qualifies as the actual top market story from last year: the spectacular equity-market returns.

The S&P 500 was the world’s best-performing major market last year with its previously highlighted 29% total return. It also achieved 70 new closing highs, the second most ever for one calendar year. Every single one of its 11 major sectors had double-digit gains led by the Energy sector’s mind-boggling 55% return. In fact, the Index’s worst performing sector was Utilities, but even its return was impressive at 18%. But the US wasn’t alone. Our benchmark, the S&P/TSX Composite, gained 25%, its best yearly advance since 2009, with similar outstanding sector performances. In short, it was a breathtaking year for equities.

However, all of the above creates a potentially dangerous situation for inexperienced investors. The relentless media focus on inflation and Omicron creates fear (likely an unfounded fear for the reasons I’ve detailed), which in and of itself can lead to poor investment decisions. But when this fear’s combined with a perception that equity markets have become dangerous because they’re at record highs, the likelihood of poor investment decisions increases even more.

In the past, I’ve highlighted that an equity market hitting a record high should never form any part of an investor’s sell discipline. Selling at a ‘high’ has the feel of a sensible investment decision, but it isn’t. One arbitrary fact (markets are at record highs) isn’t proof of a future outcome. Markets can decline for many reasons—central bank policies, a weakening economy, excessive corporate debt, valuation, geopolitics, war, etc.—but the state of simply being ‘high’ isn’t one of them.

In truth, record highs occur constantly. As the chart below indicates, there can be a continuous stream of them in any given calendar year:

S&P 500 Index all-time highs

Click to enlarge.
Source: LPL Research, FactSet. The S&P 500 hit one more all-time high in 2021 (to reach 70) which is not reflected in this chart.

Naturally, markets hitting all-time highs creates anxiety for investors, but it shouldn’t. New record highs never equate to reliable sell signals. To illustrate, as impressive as the 70 record highs were last year, the S&P 500 hit an even more impressive 77 record highs in 1995 (a record of records, so to speak). But the S&P 500 then went on to have four more years of 20% or better annual returns—and more and more record highs.

So here we are in 2022 and guess what? The S&P 500 has started off the year by hitting yet another record high.

So you tell me, is it time to sell?

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

139 comments ↓

#1 the Jaguar on 01.08.22 at 9:01 am

‘So you tell me, is it time to sell?’ +++

I’ll take a wild guess based on my complete lack of knowledge of such matters.

No. It’s not the time to sell. It might be the time to fasten your seat belt for turbulence, and there might be a ‘dip’ headed the way of Mr. Market, but I would stick with the idea that we are headed into a renaissance period of sorts after Covid. If a person is invested in the right mix they will be richly rewarded. What that looks like, I dunno. Some industries will flourish and others will fall by the side of the road. One need only review what has happened with some during to Covid to learn how the world can spin on a dime.
It’s going to be similar to the introduction of the Ford Model T in the horse and buggy age……..

ok, back down my rabbit hole………….

#2 the Jaguar on 01.08.22 at 9:06 am

I meant to add: Buy Rail, Pipelines and Energy, and anything that relates to home improvement and health products. omg, I’m turning into an investment guru. Just kidding, no chance of that ever happening.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:13 am

It’s TFSA and RRSP top up month.
I’m committed…. long term.
:)

P.S.
Gas hit $1.71 in the Lowerbrainland yesterday.
Could someone at Turner Investments please inform the big gas Co’s out here that fuel is dropping in price…?

#4 ogdoad on 01.08.22 at 9:18 am

Good morning!

Too bad media couldn’t incorporate hope and optimism instead of drawing off one of our most basic and powerful emotions. Even in SM, posts that depict despair, anger, and fear receive more views than those of…well…anything else.

We have so much market data spanning who knows how many years. There are already algorithms working and making major decisions as board members (China) and on behalf of clients portfolios (2010 anyone) – no emotion, no second thoughts…just pure, data backed, intelligence.

I have a question: Back in early 2020, when COVID started making news, the market crashed…huge. B/D portfolio dropped like a stone, but recovered. We could assume, with some confidence, that something similar will happen again. Do we plan or stay the course? What would AI do?

Og

#5 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 01.08.22 at 9:19 am

it’s only time to rebalance! Starting with the $6K to TFSA…

any idea when the housing tax-free account is going to be unleash’d? It’s almost time for my mid-life crisis….tick-tock.

#6 TurnerNation on 01.08.22 at 9:24 am

Large divergence between Financials and Tech on Fri. One broke out.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=xle
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=qqq&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

—–

The Future. Many have gathered that this all will not be ‘going away’. It was not designed to.

On the Economic Shutdowns in the engine of the country. Ontariowe. What’s the “re-opening plan”?
Hint hint there isn’t one. Come summer, they let us out of our cages (as farm animals) in time for the provincial election. The noose will tighten soon afterwards
Yes, come Fall 2022 the new Ontario digital ID will be ready. Guess what it will be used for.

–As farm animals our elite rulers look in our waste, any reason for permanent lockdowns:

.’It was stunning’: Wastewater data shows high levels of Omicron variant in Waterloo Region (kitchener.ctvnews.ca)


— War on Small Business. See, self sustaining business is bad in the New System. You must become dependent upon the Global State – and UBI.
At current I would not be surprised to see troops and checkpoints on the streets by February, and the UBI in Q2. (Read that stupid leaked email again…in order to get the UBI you will have to agree to something else too.

Coming soon to every Former First World Country – All fun is banned in in the New System:

.Germany tightens COVID-19 restrictions on bars and restaurants Customers will now need to provide a negative COVID test or proof of a booster shot to enter restaurants. (dw.com)

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:00 am

@#98 Wrk.dover

http://billmackowskitraditionals.com/

That feller has quite a hankering fer all things woven.
I disappeared down that website rabbit hole for a while.
Some nice stuff.

#8 TurnerNation on 01.08.22 at 10:09 am

UBI is here in the form of $300/week in ON – given to those deemed Non Essential to the New System.
Double it, gives $15/hr. Yep the global Maximum Wage is $15/hr . Flip what our leaders tell us. New Minimum wage = Maximum wage under Globalism.


— The future. Q2: Yes get ready for armed checkpoints and Troops on the street . No expense spared here. But the hospital capacity guys? (As noted back in Q2 2020, every system designed to protect us has been turned against us)

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2022/01/07/nouvelles-mesures-sanitaires-quebec-envisage-tous-les-scenarios
“New health measures: Quebec is considering all scenarios. This restriction would involve police checks to verify the vaccination status of Quebecers who would circulate during curfew hours.”

— Troops everywhere. That leaked email? We will be so healthy!

Nova Scotia requests federal help with vaccine rollout (ctvnews.ca)
“Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston spoke to Power Play Wednesday. At the time he told Evan Solomon a couple dozen members of the military were expected to arrive and help get vaccines into arms over the next couple of weeks.”

— 4th wave of bankruptcies is here. By design.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2022/01/toronto-restaurants-shutting-down-not-offering-takeout/
“A new wave of Toronto restaurants are choosing to shut down completely without even offering takeout or delivery, following a recent ban on indoor dining.”

#9 Tdsoiler on 01.08.22 at 10:11 am

Last week it was suggested that small caps may do well in the coming year. I have not found any that I like! Any suggestions?

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:16 am

The ripple effects of inflation in the Lowerbrainland.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/they-hit-all-of-us-gas-thief-drains-vehicles-on-entire-burnaby-street-4935407

A $1.71 a litre will do that.
Just wait until it hits $1.78 next week…

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 01.08.22 at 10:17 am

Omicron is still burning through the unvaxxed dry tinder, so it has a few more weeks to claim victims. What do we do about these self-righteous dunderheads who are putting everyone at risk and occupying hospital beds?

Inflation hopefully tamps down as supply chains re-attach. The Joker Putin remains a wild card.

#12 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 10:34 am

I don’t know if it’s time to sell. All my stuff is a mixture of equities and safe stuff. I dont think I can sell stuff or not. Just increase or decrease my risk level, and get the weightings favorable.
If I invested in individual stocks, then I might be concerned.
Just hold the line as this is the advice of this blog.

#13 willworkforpickles on 01.08.22 at 10:49 am

The markets know the Fed will do anything to maintain a dis-inflationary illusion, now taking it one step beyond a manipulative CPI index where even that has gotten away from the inflation numbers they like to artificially project.
Further,… in that regard, by announcing interest rate increases to start in March or maybe sooner, the illusion grinder the market is tethered to at the hands of the Fed is all that matters in keeping the markets buoyant.
Artificial dis-inflation is being factored in now and the markets are set for more increases for a while yet.
Most of 2022 likely.
Dis-inflation … real or imagined is what the markets thrive on…never on unchecked rising inflation as i have said here many times before.
Who can better bring about an imaginary artificial inflation rate than the Fed using their sources.
They keep adjusting the illusion when the market expects it, all in good timing before its left to flounder.
Now with coming Fed-speak rate increases, the dis-inflationary illusion it provides lives and breathes a spell longer while the average consumer will struggle on with real inflation.
When the Fed runs out of bullets and is left shooting blanks, there will be blood in the streets…next year perhaps.

#14 Born in Hamilton on 01.08.22 at 10:49 am

Rebalance perhaps. But never sell.

Back to the couch now.

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:58 am

An excellent article from The Atlantic on how the Republican party is preparing to win the 2024 presidential election with Trump at the helm.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/january-6-insurrection-trump-coup-2024-election/620843/

Trump in 2024? 2028?

God help us all.

#16 THE DANDADA on 01.08.22 at 11:00 am

It’s not time to sell……100%

But it is time to take a little bit off the table.

Don’t get burnt by being too GREEDY!

The markets WILL fall and then they will RISE again.

……SHAME ON THE UN-VAXED!!!
Your ruining mankinds progress to prosperity.

#17 Andrewski on 01.08.22 at 11:18 am

Time to moonwalk your $6K 2022 TFSA contribution in to Canadian bank stock. Love those divvies.

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 11:22 am

@99 KLNR
“what made you folks so bitter?”

+++
No bitterness involved.
Merely stating an obviously unpopular opinion.
Apologies if it offends the Tattooed among us.
Rack up the Credit Card and go get another copytat.
You’ll feel better.

#19 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 11:23 am

#5 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 01.08.22 at 9:19 am
it’s only time to rebalance! Starting with the $6K to TFSA…

any idea when the housing tax-free account is going to be unleash’d? It’s almost time for my mid-life crisis….tick-tock.
****
If you are mid life, you are too old to qualify. Need to be less than 40.

Just buy a Ferrari. Your spouse will love you for it. You’ll be the coolest old fart on the block.

#20 mark on 01.08.22 at 11:30 am

#4 ogdoad on 01.08.22 at 9:18 am
Good morning!

Too bad media couldn’t incorporate hope and optimism instead of drawing off one of our most basic and powerful emotions. Even in SM, posts that depict despair, anger, and fear receive more views than those of…well…anything else.

We have so much market data spanning who knows how many years. There are already algorithms working and making major decisions as board members (China) and on behalf of clients portfolios (2010 anyone) – no emotion, no second thoughts…just pure, data backed, intelligence.

I have a question: Back in early 2020, when COVID started making news, the market crashed…huge. B/D portfolio dropped like a stone, but recovered. We could assume, with some confidence, that something similar will happen again. Do we plan or stay the course? What would AI do?

Og

********************************************

I have asked that question in a round about way several times about drawdowns/crashes and I hope one of the boys can NERD out and let retiree’s know how much of a loss will endure with a B&D portfolio based on common assets of stocks, bonds, preferred’s etc,
I think -30% as a guess, but I don’t know where/how to nerd out to do calculations based on portfolio construction.

If your close to retirement that a Huge hit!.

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 11:31 am

As I previously posted…

The European Union is banning all coloured ink in tattoo parlours…… something about….skin cancer?

https://www.geo.tv/latest/391761-eu-bans-cancer-threat-chemicals-in-tattoo-ink

#22 Yukon Elvis on 01.08.22 at 11:46 am

Had to deploy 6k to the tfsa early in the week. Due diligence. No real good safe deals out there, everything seems overpriced to me. Ended up buying a pipeline that was $51 at this time last year but trading at $39 now with a 6.39% div. Possible price appreciation plus the div should keep pace with inflation. I hope. Sitting in cash loses value so I had to put it somewhere. Optimistic on the pipelines, almost impossible to build new ones now and they will be with us for the foreseeable future.

#23 Russ on 01.08.22 at 11:55 am

crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:16 am

The ripple effects of inflation in the Lowerbrainland.

A $1.71 a litre will do that.
Just wait until it hits $1.78 next week…

=================================

There are still many places on The Island where gas is still $1.50/ltr or less.

But most of Victoria is above 1.60 now, so we can expect prices moving up around here soon.
My fill-up earlier this week was at 1.47 after you mentioned Vancouver prices.
Thanks

Cheers, R

#24 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.08.22 at 12:09 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:13 am

Gas hit $1.71 in the Lowerbrainland yesterday.
Could someone at Turner Investments please inform the big gas Co’s out here that fuel is dropping in price…?
============================
Another 50 bucks a ton for carbon is going to add .11c to a liter to boot.
bag tax, cup tax, house tax…the tax pigs are going to insure destroying low or medium income folk.
T2 the disaster that he is.

#25 Alicia on 01.08.22 at 12:19 pm

Adam Vaughan reiterated that Canadian real estate is excellent for foreign capital. He vows that the investments made by, for example, Kazakhstan elites, will NEVER go down in value.

#26 CJB on 01.08.22 at 12:38 pm

My B&D portfolio did 19.1% in 2021. Can I get a job Garth…lol

#27 Diamond Dog on 01.08.22 at 12:48 pm

So you tell me, is it time to sell? – Doug

Depends on what you own right?

https://www.ped30.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screen-Shot-2022-01-07-at-8.28.17-AM.gif?x88361

Inflation should be down marginally next week, but it’s not a lock. If it is down, $ media will spin it as positive but inflation still comes down to money supply and Fed policy which presently is? Inflationary.

There are other causes that factor into inflation, touched on some of them yesterday and could add a couple more (productivity and currency flux) but if inflation does drop on Wednesday, it will likely continue higher next month and the Fed will be forced to act meaning rate hikes, so…

#28 Quintilian on 01.08.22 at 1:04 pm

Timing the market is gambling.
Nobody can know the future. There are almost 8 billion people on earth, each making decisions which aren’t all rational or line up with the good of the whole but they impact the economy.

However, the stock market does not reflect the real economy. That relationship ended long ago.

The stock market is a casino, and as with all casinos, it dishes out some positive reinforcement to keep the gamblers coming.

But the house always wins, and so do the dealers.

#29 Doug Rowat on 01.08.22 at 1:08 pm

#5 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 01.08.22 at 9:19 am
it’s only time to rebalance! Starting with the $6K to TFSA…

—-

Correct! Rebalancing isn’t emotional, it’s disciplined.

—Doug

#30 Deaner on 01.08.22 at 1:13 pm

990k to own the Chilliwack home famous for youtube videos of drug addicts and criminals:
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23919898/46230-reece-avenue-chilliwack?MapSlideIn=true&_=1641665312293&utm_source=mobilenativesharing&utm_medium=social-organic&utm_campaign=socialsharelisting&propertyIds=23919898

#31 ogdoad on 01.08.22 at 1:25 pm

#20 mark on 01.08.22 at 11:30 am

Well, of course, no one can predict the future. Or how deep a sell off can go. But AI can work a lot faster and accumulate data from all over the world in fractions of a second. Then buy/sell accordingly without the middleman, or waiting for the ‘red’ phone to ring.

I think it may be a sticky topic as the more trust we put in AI over, say, emotions the more irrelevant the ‘red’ phone becomes.

30% is a huge hit indeed. In my opinion, someone much smarter than me has to be at the helm.

Og

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 1:27 pm

@#23 Russ
“My fill-up earlier this week was at 1.47 after you mentioned Vancouver prices…”

+++

Some stations in the Lowerbrainland have hit $1.74 this am.
If this is what we are experiencing in January…
I expect $2.00/litre by July.

Can you say inflation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Come_the_Seventies

A CBC award winning documentary series ( remember those CBC?) in the early 1970’s predicting future trends that may soon be coming to Netflix.

Unfortunately they didnt see Inflation coming….

:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37z6eAp3D4A

#33 Victor V on 01.08.22 at 1:33 pm

#9 Tdsoiler on 01.08.22 at 10:11 am
Last week it was suggested that small caps may do well in the coming year. I have not found any that I like! Any suggestions?

=========

XCS and VBR are good options to consider for small cap ETFs.

As for individual small caps, I think base metals like copper will do well with continued growth in electrification, EVs etc. Take a look at Los Andes Copper in particular as they have one of the largest properties in South America and are one of a few players there that have not yet done any M&A. Here’s a CEO interview to help with DD: https://omny.fm/shows/dig-deep-the-mining-podcast/los-andes-copper-milestones-with-michael-jones

#34 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 1:35 pm

Price, price, price.

That’s all the young ever talk about ’cause it’s so Phallic.

Dividends, dividends, dividends.

That’s all Retired Boomer’s like me care about ’cause it’s so Viagra.

Dividend yield for my Threadbare Portfolio varies from 4% (Garth’s beloved, drag the dividend yield ship down, Prefs) to a high of 21.6% (high risk ETN).

Weighted average dividend yield:

18.08%

The best is that all of them pay monthly dividends, save one (Qrtrly).

There can be a 100 highs this year and I don’t care. Won’t sell. Just keep the cash flowing in.

#35 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 1:43 pm

The Atlantic.

I like it.

Though at times is just a high brow, lefty conspiracy theory version of its antithesis:

ZeroHedge.

If Biden keeps doing what he’s doing, Trump will get his revenge.

Which is fine, I live in the EU…poor Canada though.

And from a personal point of view, when Trump was President the Twitter Hive was all that much more fun to read esp. when he would go postal on his own personal account vs. his Presidential account – basically what he officially did vs. what he was really thinking as a Trash Talking New Yorker.

#36 BC_Doc on 01.08.22 at 1:44 pm

The Schiller PE ratio is in nosebleed territory— not a tool to market time, but an indicator that equities are very pricy:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

#37 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 1:51 pm

The Twitter Hive got excited today, besides the usual Omicron, about Djokovic’s Lawyers claiming that:

Djokovic had a Covid infection on 16 December.

BBC has taken, like me, an unnatural interest in the 13 yr old high school drop out, alchemy loving jock.

The Hive fact checked and it’s all in the Comments section of this Tweet (Zen = he’s a lying sack of manure):

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1479719472378298368

Did not know there were that many Philadelphia Lawyers in the UK. But, there are.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.22 at 1:51 pm

#24 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.08.22 at 12:09 pm
#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:13 am

Gas hit $1.71 in the Lowerbrainland yesterday.
Could someone at Turner Investments please inform the big gas Co’s out here that fuel is dropping in price…?
============================
Another 50 bucks a ton for carbon is going to add .11c to a liter to boot.
bag tax, cup tax, house tax…the tax pigs are going to insure destroying low or medium income folk.
T2 the disaster that he is.
————————
Higher gas prices are not an Act of God.
You can avoid it with proper planning.
That’s separates us from the monkeys.
And I know what your rebuttal will be.
So don’t bother.

#39 NFL on 01.08.22 at 1:55 pm

Wonder how empty the NFL stadiums will be in US this weekend? 50% capacity? 25% capacity? Surely not 100% capacity?

Wonder how many people will be wearing a mask?

Can we please find out NFL’s secret Omicron shield method and deploy it more broadly?

#40 Shawn on 01.08.22 at 1:55 pm

2001 through 2011 was an interesting dry spell for new highs. At the same time there were incredible gains made when buying at the lower points. I think it was around November 2002 and certainly the 666 S&P bottom March 2009.

Buy and hold got a very bad name 2000 to 2010 or so but ultimately proved its worth.

#41 DON on 01.08.22 at 1:59 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:13 am
It’s TFSA and RRSP top up month.
I’m committed…. long term.
:)

P.S.
Gas hit $1.71 in the Lowerbrainland yesterday.
Could someone at Turner Investments please inform the big gas Co’s out here that fuel is dropping in price…?

********
$1.77 at some stations in Victoria in Oak Bay or on Douglas Street. I get the upcoming maintenance at refineries in Washington state. At the moment less demand for oil as China is still pursuing zero covid in some cities.

I can’t ever remember paying $1.70 a litre and oil is approx $78 – 80 buckaroos a barrel. Yikes!

#42 Dogman01 on 01.08.22 at 2:08 pm

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:58 am

The Atlantic is a core establishment flag bearer platform. It is quite terrible when you try to read it, their article is hyperbolic, righteous, relies on anecdotes of radicals and works on emotion, it should be tossed in the total BS bin. Yes, Trump has a group of loons whom support him, many older, some racist, some senile some into conspiracy stuff but….. In 2020 almost Half the US voters went for Trump even after actually experiencing 4 years of Trump. The Establishment guys put up were so bad that they could not crush a polarizing figure like Trump.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/january-6-insurrection-trump-coup-2024-election/620843/

Biden had his chance to address the grievance that brought Trump in the first place but instead (as this article clearly demonstrates) the US Establishment is blind to those grievances. Biden has pursued wacky policies while maintaining the core economic status quo which only serves to further alienate the middle of the US voting base.

…and now not only have they not addressed the grievance, they have performed so very badly that Trump is encouraged to come back. It is weird.
It is like they are trying to construct a crisis in US Democracy by doing all they can to create an environment where Trump could succeed.

Let’s go out on a limb and channel “Turner Nation” : USA’s tradition and culture of freedom, citizenship, personal firearm ownership, etc. is the greatest impediment to the “Great Globalist Reset”. The only way to get the US “Citizen” out of the way is to manufacture a crisis in the USA. Biden\US Establishment appears to be constructively performing so bad that they are setting the table for that crisis of Donald Trumps return.

This Professor (a Social Democrat) has some good insights into the macro trends which spawned Trump and continues to sustain the phenomena:
Big tech and woke are destroying the middle class | Joel Kotkin interview; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yXBHDyCx3o

#43 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 2:11 pm

#26 CJB on 01.08.22 at 12:38 pm
My B&D portfolio did 19.1% in 2021. Can I get a job Garth…lol.
****
Lackluster results. No job for you until you return 80%.

#44 DON on 01.08.22 at 2:15 pm

I don’t think inflation got a fair chance to become the number one story. Not many believed in the little engine that could.

As for a good portion of Gen X being to young to really understand what went on…a big YUP. A year or two makes a difference ejen you are that young. I used to listen to Jack Webster on the radio and had family in the forest sector and trades and witnessed the turbulance. Hard to forget.

Stay balanced and diversified and live within your means.

Thanks for the info Doug.

#45 greyhound on 01.08.22 at 2:21 pm

The old saying is, “sell half and be half right.”

#46 Grunt on 01.08.22 at 2:24 pm

Financial gurus the future is opaque. Much like the industry.

Glasses & mask what a foggy 2 years it’s been.

#47 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 2:33 pm

Oh FFS:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1479862993076826112

Hot off the Hive.

#48 DON on 01.08.22 at 2:35 pm

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:58 am
An excellent article from The Atlantic on how the Republican party is preparing to win the 2024 presidential election with Trump at the helm.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/january-6-insurrection-trump-coup-2024-election/620843/

Trump in 2024? 2028?

God help us all.

******************

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/01/03/Iran-threatens-revenge-for-Soleimani-killing-if-former-US-President-Trump-not-tried

In another article the Iranian General threatened to send a team to the US. Trump may have to hire an army. lol

Off topic but timely?

#49 Eco Capitalist on 01.08.22 at 2:49 pm

SELL EVERYTHING! Buy an off grid bunker and a few years of ammo and freeze dried food!

Where is that Armageddon guy? His job is harder than it looks. Perhaps no internet in his bunker?

#50 Wrk.dover on 01.08.22 at 2:53 pm

Candle light and hand crank 4th world radio last night in NS. Generator plugged into the generlink thumping away right now to charge the freezers, take a shower and read this blog. Solar schmolar, nothing without grid.

Not quite the GTA life!

#51 I don’t know on 01.08.22 at 3:20 pm

28 Quintilian on 01.08.22 at 1:04

Short term the market may be more “casino-like” but long term it most definitely is not.

Participants who invest long term are essentially betting on continued human progress and innovation moving forward. It’s a really good bet, and is why markets advance most of the time, and if given a long enough time frame, all of the time.

It’s no surprise that the most pessimistic and frustrated are usually permabears.

#52 KLNR on 01.08.22 at 3:23 pm

@#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 11:22 am
@99 KLNR
“what made you folks so bitter?”

+++
No bitterness involved.
Merely stating an obviously unpopular opinion.
Apologies if it offends the Tattooed among us.
Rack up the Credit Card and go get another copytat.
You’ll feel better.

I meant bitter in general.
you folks get triggered on the weirdest things.

#53 espressobob on 01.08.22 at 3:29 pm

Taking profit in my view is never wrong, not maintaining core positions however, would be.

Adding and subtracting around quality equity holdings can actually be fun.

Pays for a few bad habits…

#54 KLNR on 01.08.22 at 3:30 pm

@#42 Dogman01 on 01.08.22 at 2:08 pm
#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:58 am

The Atlantic is a core establishment flag bearer platform. It is quite terrible when you try to read it, their article is hyperbolic, righteous, relies on anecdotes of radicals and works on emotion, it should be tossed in the total BS bin. Yes, Trump has a group of loons whom support him, many older, some racist, some senile some into conspiracy stuff but….. In 2020 almost Half the US voters went for Trump even after actually experiencing 4 years of Trump…

most of the folks were just voting party not for t-rump specifically. I mean, its no zerohedge but the Atantic is reputable. Take your blinders off and get outta the bunker for a bit of fresh air.

#55 KLNR on 01.08.22 at 3:31 pm

@#49 Eco Capitalist on 01.08.22 at 2:49 pm

Where is that Armageddon guy? His job is harder than it looks. Perhaps no internet in his bunker?

didn’t get vaxxed.

#56 The Watcher ... Tenth Post on 01.08.22 at 3:33 pm

Turner Nation – What are your comments on this ?

‘I see it coming’: Mandatory vaccinations on the horizon, federal health minister says

21 hours ago

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/health-minister-believes-mandatory-vaccinations-coming-to-canada?r&fbclid=IwAR3ekKSDQYITWzZ79Kicsw0CBrZhoqqY1vtPCLUsHKGfuig-n7iEwy82KPk#Echobox=1641576455

#57 Flop… on 01.08.22 at 3:33 pm

Robax, Happy New Year Brother.

One thing I’ve noticed, which means you’ve probably noticed it, the rotation out of Chinese Equities in Indian Equities continues.

Return 1 week… Chinese Equities… minus 2.2%

Return 1 week… Indian Equities….plus 2.2%

1 year return…Chinese Equities…..minus 25%

1 year return….Indian Equities….plus 27%

It’s like a mirror.

My decision to put oil companies in my wife’s TFSA this year, instead of jumping on the Brownie Train, means I could have some ‘splaining to do come December.

If it goes pear-shaped, I’ve got 6k just laying around, It’ll be easier to just give her a refund for services not up to snuff…

M47BC

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.22 at 3:36 pm

italist on 01.08.22 at 2:49 pm
SELL EVERYTHING! Buy an off grid bunker and a few years of ammo and freeze dried food!
Where is that Armageddon guy? His job is harder than it looks. Perhaps no internet in his bunker?
———————————-
He may be using a shortwave radio.
Surprisingly, it’s still around. About 300 mill users worldwide.

You can use shortwave to transcend government restrictions, cultural oppression, and more. 
For those who want to share a specific message, shortwave can also be one of the most cost-effective ways of reaching a massive audience with no access to the internet. People can listen to this content on fairly affordable equipment in every country worldwide. 
If, for instance, a country wasn’t able to listen to news because of the rules of a dictator, then a shortwave radio would be a way to bypass this law. 

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 3:43 pm

@#42 Dogman 01

I agree that The Atlantic mag has a bias towards the Democrats I found it interesting that their article ( Jan. 6th was Practice) has been followed up by this weeks Economist mag ( Cover Story: Walking Away : The Republican Party and Democracy) warning about the exact same thing.
A Republican end run around the entire democratic election process with new rules and laws which are designed to effectively “gerrymander” Democrat leaning states to make it easier to disallow voters, or questionable ballots.
If it’s easier to disallow thousands or millions of voters or ballots in a tight race….( and it WILL be a tight race if its Trump against Biden ( a pathetic choice as President but the best the Dems had??? And Kamala Harris is a non starter in the polls ).

Both magazines are raising the warning flags two years before 2024 and if the Democrats dont wake up and see whats happening all around them.

The big money behind this doesn’t care about the election process. All it cares about is winning …at any cost.
Unless he’s on trial or in jail before 2024.
Trump WILL be re-elected in 2024 and will be eligible to run again in 2028 .
The man is certifiable.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 3:45 pm

@#49 Eco Money
“Where is that Armageddon guy? His job is harder than it looks. Perhaps no internet in his bunker?”

+++
Rumour is……, his mom kicked him out.

#61 Dr V on 01.08.22 at 3:50 pm

Thanks for all the responses on snowshoes.

Millmech – MSRs were popular locally a couple of years
back. I think that most were opting for the composite decking for apparent durability though. The serrated
frames look like a big plus.

Faron – ouch sorry to hear that. I have broken ribs myself so here is my advice

1) Do not watch the comedy channel
2) you will learn that sneezing is a voluntary reaction. I
didnt know that until I went one whole month
without doing it.

#62 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 4:05 pm

#47 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 2:33 pm
Oh FFS:

https://twitter.com/business/status/1479862993076826112

Hot off the Hive.

———-

I dub thee ‘Sir Yawnicron’.

#63 Faron on 01.08.22 at 4:30 pm

How many out there realize that the purpose of the recent Matt Damon ad was to lasso a herd of retail bag holders for a last pump n dump?

#2 the Jaguar on 01.08.22 at 9:06 am

Yes, yes, yes and no IMO. When home prices slump HELOCs will dry up and Home Depot stock (among others) will wither FAST. Back to $230 by year end. Many stocks that are way above their Jan, 2019 level will wind up back there. Not all, but many.

#64 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.08.22 at 4:54 pm

SHILLER P/E is at 40.
Highest was 44 in 1999
Lowest was 5 after the roaring 20’s dance floor gave way.
Average is 17 over the past 150 years.

You gotta be NUTZ to think this is sustainable for much longer without a tidal wave correction.

REVERSION TO THE MEAN……Google it.

#65 Dr V on 01.08.22 at 5:02 pm

Great post Doug with so many good points to discuss and many good comments.

If we have low volatility, and a market rising even modestly, there should be a large number of record
highs. It’s just math, acting like a daily interest savings account.

Faron/Sailo – from yesterday, a quick check showed NASDAQ at 14935 v high from last fall of 16212 = 7.9% drop. Will watch closely esp when Fed finally pulls trigger.

It’s time to sell if you’ve made $$, need the money, and can do so tax efficiently. Don’t get greedy!

Utilities during inflationary times. I’m trying to recall the logic. Is it that utilities are often locked into long-term contracts and may not be able to increase prices?

20 Mark – the 30% drop actually helped propel me to retirement. I deployed a considerable amount at that time. A co-worker’s SIL/BIL got scared and sold
everything just retaining their original investment. I
asked him to thank them for me. I think this is another
reason to take CPP early (this month!). A little cash or “cash-like” is nice too, even if just used to buy bargains.

22 Yukon – your analysis sounds good. Hope it works out.

Ponz/Fartz – gas $1.60 here, up from $1.47. still sitting at 3/4 tank in the F150 egoboost.

#66 Faron on 01.08.22 at 5:02 pm

#102 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 10:01 am

Sincere thanks for the empathy.

Welp, like all accidents, it was dumb. Biked to work after Weds night snowmageddon (that was nothing like up-Island has had). Slushy, gross, little drifty. Deployed MTB skills and zero dabbed it. It was fun! I love the snow. Makes life more fun/interesting.

As I departed work for the return trip it was raining hard and all slush piles gave way easily. So, in crossing from parking lot to bike path I figured I could ram through one particular lump. Nope, it was a parking bumper. Would have been fine, but I went down ribs first onto the crown of a fire hydrant. Never howled in pain like that before.

Partner picked me up and drove me home. I refused emerg because I wasn’t at all shocky so no internal bleeding, no sign of punctured lungs, I figured it was just bruising and there’s not much to be done for ribs even if broken. took a couple T3s and drifted off. In the morning, moving was excruciating so I relented and went to get checked out. Yeppers. Glad I went because the hypodermic shot of NSAIDs was magic and I got a re-up on T3.

The breaks are low ribs so breathing isn’t bad which keeps one out of the woods regarding pneumonia. Comfortable resting, moving sucks. Could have been worse. Clumsy AF on a mode of transport that is second nature to me. Complacency I guess. Maybe a karmic rebalance for being a jerk here from time to time?

Wanna hear the weird thing? Somehow my sense of smell and taste that COVID wrecked came partly back. Could be coincidence, but strange timing.

#67 Nonplused on 01.08.22 at 5:25 pm

“So you tell me, is it time to sell?”

If the market is moving higher, it must make record highs.

As always an annual rebalancing will prevent too much exposure to certain sectors or names.

But as a side note I don’t think the inflation story is over. Inflation is not being cause by supply constraints, a supposedly strong labor market, high energy prices, or any number of other possible excuses. It is being caused by too much money being made available at too low interest rates. Everything else is more of a symptom than a cause.

—————————————–

But back to the job market, the stats still look mixed to me. Sure, U3 is low, but a deeper dive shows that there are still 4-5 million less people working in the US than there were prior to covid. Some pundits call it “the great resignation” and cite 4 million. The government’s own stats put it about 5 million. Mike Rowe put it at 4.5 million and cited “the skills gap”. Some people think it is government handouts that are causing it. All this proves is that nobody really knows for sure, except that the number is between 4 and 5 million. That’s a lot.

Consumer credit is also setting new records. Not just in absolute terms, it does that all the time, but in the rate of increase. That is not a sign of a healthy economy unless you can construct a contorted argument that it shows that consumers have more faith in their future ability to repay than at any time in recent history, or perhaps all of history. Seems to me that with total employment still quite low an an equally plausible explanation is that they just don’t have any other way to pay the bills.

Anyway, the combination of low total employment numbers, high inflation, and exploding consume credit is a combination that warrants monitoring.

#68 cuke and tomato picker on 01.08.22 at 5:34 pm

SELL SOME AND BUY BMO.

#69 fishman on 01.08.22 at 5:44 pm

I’ve known a few people who have been through monetary/civil security collapses in their countries. They say the most dangerous spot is isolated, way out in the sticks. Hungry gangs of feral young men. Hunting like wolf packs.. In the city your out the door early. Walking, public transport, hustling for necessities. Back at home before dark. The criminals, police/army rule the night. The highest standard of living was suburban/big lots,small acreage neighbourhoods with active, armed local organized security. Kinda like where all the latest big gains in R/E across Canada have been.

#70 Balmuto on 01.08.22 at 5:53 pm

“ Dividend yield for my Threadbare Portfolio varies from 4% (Garth’s beloved, drag the dividend yield ship down, Prefs) to a high of 21.6% (high risk ETN).” – Soren Angst

Curious to know what ETN pays a dividend yield of 21.6%. Care to share?

#71 Quintilian on 01.08.22 at 6:00 pm

#51 I don’t know
“Participants who invest long term are essentially betting on continued human progress and innovation moving forward”

No disagreement on that point, but you can invest in private equity companies, and avoid the cesspit of the stock exchange.

#72 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 6:15 pm

#62 Sail Away

Same guy in early 2021 that was yawning when I was trying to warn you all from Italia.

“Oh it’s the flu.”

So there Mr. Yawn, what do you think of your yawn back then?

Don’t you feel stup… right now.

Hopefully the new thing is contained, since it’s on an island.

Now go back to sleep, hug your bird gun.

#73 Alma Mater on 01.08.22 at 6:15 pm

#26 CJB on 01.08.22 at 12:38 pm

My B&D portfolio did 19.1% in 2021. Can I get a job Garth…lol

__________________

Rule #1. Never outshine the boss.

Besides, there wouldn’t be room for all that ego in the same office!

#74 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 6:18 pm

Agree! Sell everything. Life isn’t about living

#75 R on 01.08.22 at 6:21 pm

Most likely, the DOJ will find Trump guilty of tax evasion and hang a felony on him. ( Same as Capone, only Capone was a much nicer guy). This would disqualify Trump from running in 2024 .

#76 Bad Tattoo on 01.08.22 at 6:42 pm

Me. I’m not sure which I despise more. Tattoos …. or the people that attack those that voice their opinions about their distaste for tattoos… or anything for that matter. They are both pretty ugly in my opinion.

Just imagine if you were to say, break a couple of ribs….

LMAO when you are treated with utter care and professionalism and friendliness by a doc and, as you hoist yourself off the guerney, you don’t note a trace of sleeve tattoo poking out from under his scrubs. JFC

Karma is a beach.

#77 Doug Rowat on 01.08.22 at 6:45 pm

#64 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.08.22 at 4:54 pm
SHILLER P/E is at 40.
Highest was 44 in 1999
Lowest was 5 after the roaring 20’s dance floor gave way.
Average is 17 over the past 150 years.

You gotta be NUTZ to think this is sustainable for much longer without a tidal wave correction.

—-

P/Es, particularly the Shiller P/E, have little correlation to future market direction.

Also, as I highlighted last post (https://www.greaterfool.ca/2021/12/25/the-chorus/amp/), examining one metric is pointless when it comes to assessing valuation.

—Doug

#78 Oakville Rocks! on 01.08.22 at 6:58 pm

@ #100 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 9:41 am

“Sorry. Yukon Gold was invented in PEI (Prince Edward Island in case you don’t recognize the acronym).”
=======

Sorry but you are mistaken,

Yukon Gold is a large cultivar of potato most distinctly characterized by its thin, smooth, eye-free skin and yellow-tinged flesh. This potato was developed in the 1960s by Garnet (“Gary”) Johnston[1][2] in Guelph, Ontario, Canada, with the help of Geoff Rowberry at the University of Guelph. The official cross bred strain was made in 1966 and ‘Yukon Gold’ was finally released into the market in 1980.[3]

From Wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yukon_Gold_potato )
in case you don’t know how to use the Internet..

And I have been to PEI and loved it. No doubt they grow Yukon Gold but they did not invent it.

#79 tbone on 01.08.22 at 7:00 pm

# 39 NFL

The football game down in Denver , correction up in Denver , since they are playing at Mile High Stadium seems to be sold out . It holds 76,000 and the odd fan has a mask. They seem to consider the virus over as far as they are concerned. Similar story all year with the college and NFL games .

#80 Ronaldo on 01.08.22 at 7:11 pm

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:16 am
The ripple effects of inflation in the Lowerbrainland.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/they-hit-all-of-us-gas-thief-drains-vehicles-on-entire-burnaby-street-4935407

A $1.71 a litre will do that.
Just wait until it hits $1.78 next week…
—————————————————————-
Better get out and buy some of those plastic gas cans while they are still available.

#81 Drinking on 01.08.22 at 7:17 pm

Good question, buy or sell???
The real question is inflation; pop this up on carbon tax, plus tax just to stay alive in a country as rich and cold as we are is just insulting..
This system is just not working, the number of bottle pickers in my back lane; many are well dressed is just sad. Many are not too far away from that..
What to do???

#82 Tomás de Torquemada on 01.08.22 at 7:27 pm

In the case of inflation, markets concluded that a rapidly improving labour market would eventually ease supply-side constraints, a key inflation contributor. Markets also surmised that natural demand destruction would further ease soaring prices.

——————————————–

‘Supply-side constraint’ are just convenient excuse to blame something else and not the central ‘bankers’ for the inflation. Now when most of these fictitious ‘constraints’ are eliminated what exactly has come down in price?

List those please.

Improving labour market drives increased demand, and consequently increase in inflation, not decrease.

The inflation is actually driven not by supply-side constraints but by the exactly that increased demand due to excessive credit and money printing and zero interest rates.

And it is just starting. The expectation that inflation will be avoided by not being acknowledged is naïve.

Yes, we can keep lying and reading lies about inflation bit it after all is here to stay for a very long time.

‘Growth’ of markets by 25-30 % while economy grows at 4-5 % with 10-15 % inflation can not be sustained.

Think about the damage of reporting low inflation which defines increase in benefits of 2 % while inflation is north of 10 %, it gives room to politicians to openly steal from all of us, our pensions and benefits.

If you are fine with that I am not,

Hot labour market drives inflation and demand, it does not destroy them, it is thought in the 1st year at University. Repeating the opposite only because ignorant media keeps repeating it along with the lies for ‘peak inflation’ can only harm one’s reputation.

Inflation is just starting and will explode further. Watching MLS prices lately also proves that, it is equal to practical hyper inflation for all intends and purposes.

It makes me really wonder how the poor folks living in the big cities except Montreal can scrap up a living.

#83 Tomás de Torquemada on 01.08.22 at 7:31 pm

The other funny thing that I read is how in the past 2 years due to decreased economic activities, excessive money printing and exploding debt we became actually ‘richer’ as house valuations exploded.

That’s right, the deeper in debt we go, the less we do, the better we are.

Insane stuff.

#84 Incoming on 01.08.22 at 8:01 pm

Cyprus reportedly discovers a Covid variant that combines omicron and delta.

We are really screwed now.

#85 Pandemic Is Over on 01.08.22 at 8:03 pm

Needless to say, the rise in infections terrified the public and made media outlets salivate. Nothing sells like fear. — Doug

How true. It’s a huge conflict of interests, for the media (fear sells) and for the government (power grab). They are motivated to keep the perception of pandemic dragging forever…

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.22 at 8:28 pm

#80 Ronaldo on 01.08.22 at 7:11 pm
#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 10:16 am
The ripple effects of inflation in the Lowerbrainland.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/they-hit-all-of-us-gas-thief-drains-vehicles-on-entire-burnaby-street-4935407

A $1.71 a litre will do that.
Just wait until it hits $1.78 next week…
—————————————————————-
Better get out and buy some of those plastic gas cans while they are still available.
—————-
I’m worry more about the price and/or a shortage of toilet paper.
It’s an essential product.
Off to CostCo, first thing tomorrow.
Gas is also cheaper, around 10 cents.

#87 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 8:34 pm

@Faron

Ribs are a double threat- painful at the location of break and often equally painful at the spinal connection. No choice now but to take it easy for a while. Don’t cough, laugh or sneeze and only breathe as necessary.

#88 Gravy Train on 01.08.22 at 8:52 pm

#67 Nonplused on 01.08.22 at 5:25 pm
“[…] But back to the job market, the stats still look mixed to me. Sure, U-3 is low, but a deeper dive shows that there are still 4-5 million [fewer] people working in the US than there were prior to [COVID-19]. Some pundits call it ‘the great resignation’ and cite 4 million. The government’s own stats put it about 5 million. Mike Rowe put it at 4.5 million and cited ‘the skills gap’. Some people think it is government handouts that are causing it.” “In December, 3.1 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic—that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic. This measure was down from the level of 3.6 million in November. Among those who reported in December that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 15.9 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the prior month.
Among those not in the [labour] force in December, 1.1 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, little changed from November. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)” For more details on the U.S. employment situation—December 2021, click the link below.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

“All this proves is that nobody really knows for sure, except that the number is between 4 and 5 million. That’s a lot.[…]” You’re still not reading, but still bloviating, I see! Maybe you’re just a lost cause! :P

#89 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 8:55 pm

#72 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 6:15 pm
#62 Sail Away

Same guy in early 2021 that was yawning when I was trying to warn you all from Italia.

“Oh it’s the flu.”

So there Mr. Yawn, what do you think of your yawn back then?

Don’t you feel stup… right now.

Hopefully the new thing is contained, since it’s on an island.

Now go back to sleep, hug your bird gun.

———

More similar to a cold than a flu, actually. A healthy individual’s healthy immune system is quite adept at dealing with coronavirusi.

The mortality rate is, in reality, quite low, and has not changed since the initial control cases on cruise ships. Except Omi is less lethal, which is the usual progression from lethal-ish to less lethal. My sentiment remains the same: if we were not able to sequence this, the last two years would have been ‘bad flu years for the oldsters’, no more. 2% mortality is not an emergency unless we turn it into an emergency.

Someone needs to introduce acceptable risk to the discussion.

#90 Dr V on 01.08.22 at 9:23 pm

71 Quintillian

Informative article here. Not easily directly accessible to small investors.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mutualfund/07/private_equity.asp

I do not see how it would be more or less “cesspit” than the markets. Perhaps a small portion of a B & D portfolio thru vehicles noted.

My allocation is currently with the CPP investment board
:)

#91 Nonplused on 01.08.22 at 9:40 pm

#48 DON on 01.08.22 at 2:35 pm

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/01/03/Iran-threatens-revenge-for-Soleimani-killing-if-former-US-President-Trump-not-tried

In another article the Iranian General threatened to send a team to the US. Trump may have to hire an army. lol

Off topic but timely?

——-

Was Soleimani not an Iranian general responsible for Iranian proxies in Iraq during a time of war and on Iraqi soil? Did he not coordinate military action that killed numerous Americans and their Iraqi supporters?
Seems like a legitimate military target to me, no matter how ham-fisted the strike was. What’s that phrase? “Live by the sword….”

It’s all just talk anyway. An Iranian sponsored terrorist attack on US soil will seal their fate. They should go and ask Bin Laden how such things work out.

#92 Observer on 01.08.22 at 9:41 pm

#89 SailAway

“2% mortality is not an emergency unless we turn it into an emergency.”

Besides the fact that 2% mortality is a lot of dead people, the “emergency” is that our healthcare system is severely compromised with the high numbers of COVID patients which means that 100% of us are at risk of experiencing negative health implications.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:42 pm

@80 and 86 Ronaldo and PP

Don’t worry about me fellas.
My company pays for the gas.
:)

#94 Faron on 01.08.22 at 9:46 pm

#87 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 8:34 pm

In my case, the abdominal muscles (insofar as they exist on me) are connected to the broken ribs so certain motions HURT.

To stave off pneumonia, one has to consciously take deep breaths every now and then. Pneumonia plus -/- ribs would be hell. Otherwise just avoiding comedy.

#76 Bad Tattoo on 01.08.22 at 6:42 pm

Careful everyone, b**t hurt chimera comin’ through.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:49 pm

@#52 KLNR
“you folks get triggered on the weirdest things.”

+++

Its the constant barrage of Wokeness, political correctness, BLM, on and on and on.

I figured I’d join the bandwagon.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:54 pm

@#69 fishman

“They say the most dangerous spot is isolated, way out in the sticks. Hungry gangs of feral young men. Hunting like wolf packs.. ”

++++

True.
I mentioned that to a friend who lives in a remote location with his wife.
He laughed and said, “No one comes near my place because they all know….Im crazy and Im a good shot.”

And he’s 100% correct on both points.

#97 Drinking on 01.08.22 at 9:55 pm

Off topic!
Just to lighten the mood a little. For those who follow science; remember a few weeks back about the Chinese rover seeing a cube like figure on the moon? Well, they drove there rover over to the location only to find this. I mean this in a funny not derogative way, us nerds get it! Geesh!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/curious-cube-shaped-hut-on-moon-just-another-rock-1.5732492

#98 Greg on 01.08.22 at 9:59 pm

What would be the catalyst for the much speculated upcoming crash?

#99 Russ on 01.08.22 at 10:00 pm

Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 8:55 pm


“Oh it’s the flu.”
————————————————
So there Mr. Yawn, what do you think of your yawn back then?

Hopefully the new thing is contained, since it’s on an island.

Now go back to sleep, hug your bird gun.

———

More similar to a cold than a flu, actually. A healthy individual’s healthy immune system is quite adept at dealing with coronavirusi.

The mortality rate is, in reality, quite low, and has not changed since the initial control cases on cruise ships. Except Omi is less lethal, which is the usual progression from lethal-ish to less lethal. My sentiment remains the same: if we were not able to sequence this, the last two years would have been ‘bad flu years for the oldsters’, no more. 2% mortality is not an emergency unless we turn it into an emergency.

Someone needs to introduce acceptable risk to the discussion.
================================

Hear hear.

We hear nothing of this discussed in public. What is the acceptable risk? We have had 2 years to protect the elderly and still fail. Or have we?

Not everyone needs to be vaccinated. Only the one who wish to protect themselves.

I’m reminded of the cute bathroom message board, probably bought at public art market, on display in my in-law’s bathroom (intended audience is her kids):

“You do not have to brush all of your teeth, only the ones you want to keep”

Do not do dental care = lose teeth
Do not get a covid vaccine = get sick

It is a now personal choice now with so many in the community being protected. And the survivors of the un-vaccinated can expect to have better protection then the rest of us.

Maybe OMG variant is becoming just the flu, check the B.C. hospital curve to the case counts (and remember Bonnie stopped alot of testing weeks ago).

https://bccdc.shinyapps.io/covid19_global_epi_app/

Cheers, R

#100 Faron on 01.08.22 at 10:04 pm

#89 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 8:55 pm
#72 Søren Angst on 01.08.22 at 6:15 pm

COVID was noted and sequenced because it is severe! If it was just another cold the profile would never have been high enough to garner attention. The common cold is rarely tested for because it’s NBD. So, it’s blatantly untrue that technology made COVID noteable. Drs in slammed hospitals would have been ringing the alarms under any medical or technological regime of the last few hundred years. You do the medical profession a massive, undeserved disservice by claiming otherwise. Doing so when healthcare workers are hitting exhaustion levels never before seen is callous and rude.

And, pre-sequencing, virologists had a variety of ways to differentiate among virus types. Excess deaths haven’t been this high in decades. Sorry SA, you are dead wrong here. Yes, we are lucky it wasn’t more severe, but COVID up to Omicron, has been incredibly deadly and impactful.

#101 Ronaldo on 01.08.22 at 10:25 pm

#20 mark on 01.08.22 at 11:30 am
#4 ogdoad on 01.08.22 at 9:18 am
Good morning!

Too bad media couldn’t incorporate hope and optimism instead of drawing off one of our most basic and powerful emotions. Even in SM, posts that depict despair, anger, and fear receive more views than those of…well…anything else.

We have so much market data spanning who knows how many years. There are already algorithms working and making major decisions as board members (China) and on behalf of clients portfolios (2010 anyone) – no emotion, no second thoughts…just pure, data backed, intelligence.

I have a question: Back in early 2020, when COVID started making news, the market crashed…huge. B/D portfolio dropped like a stone, but recovered. We could assume, with some confidence, that something similar will happen again. Do we plan or stay the course? What would AI do?

Og

********************************************

I have asked that question in a round about way several times about drawdowns/crashes and I hope one of the boys can NERD out and let retiree’s know how much of a loss will endure with a B&D portfolio based on common assets of stocks, bonds, preferred’s etc,
I think -30% as a guess, but I don’t know where/how to nerd out to do calculations based on portfolio construction.

If your close to retirement that a Huge hit!.
—————————————————————
Well, I have no idea when the next big correction will happen or what it will do but I can tell you based on my own experience and with the funds I invest in what occured in the last two major downturns in 2008 and 2020.

Here is what my balanced and diversified 60/40 or thereabouts portfolio did.

In 2008, this fund dropped 18.2% by March 23/09. By end of year 2009, it had recovered by 19.3%. It would have had to recover by 22 1/2% to get back to even. By end of 2010 it recovered by 8.6% so that the fund was now about 6% above what it was before the crash.

So, it took from March 23rd./09 to mid year 2010 to fully recover. However, 2011 was not a good year and the fund dropped 3.06% bringing it back to just 2.1% above the pre crash total. So, 2.7 years of basically no growth from the March 23/09 bottom.

From that point on the gains were: 2012 – 7.8, 2013 – 13.7, 2014 – 11.1, 2015 – 5.1, 2016 – 7.6, 2017 – 9.7, 2018 – minus 2.9, 2019 – 15.8, 2020 – 14.2 and 2021 – 11.5. Only 2018 was a down year.

Now the second major crash that occured on March 23, 2020 the fund dropped 20.7% and then fully recovered by mid June. ( 3 months) and ended the year up 14.2%. Anyone selling out at the March bottom would have taken massive losses.

Now I have to confess that I did not take the loss as stated above in 2009 since in January of 2008 feeling that the situation was very similar to what had happened in January 2001 I decided to adjust my portfolio to 30/70 from 60/40. In addition in September 24th of 2008 I went 90/10 when the Fed Chairman came on TV and basically stated that the world was going to end if the government did not go for the 800 billion dollar bailout. As a result my portfolio was only down slightly more than 5%. In February of 2009 when the banks all hit the 50% drop mark I reverted back to 60/40. I realize that market timing is a no no but there did not appear to be much downside at that point.

I did not have any inclination to do anything with my portfolio in the March 2020 crash. Instead I jumped into the market with cash I had sitting around and purchased copper and energy stocks which turned out to be an exceptionally good move.

For this coming year because of the interest rate rises expected I have reduced the exposure to certain bonds and increased my equity exposure to 70%. Will see what happens.

#102 Doug Rowat on 01.08.22 at 10:31 pm

#82 Tomás de Torquemada on 01.08.22 at 7:27 pm

Yes, we can keep lying and reading lies about inflation bit it after all is here to stay for a very long time.

‘Growth’ of markets by 25-30 % while economy grows at 4-5 % with 10-15 % inflation can not be sustained.

Think about the damage of reporting low inflation which defines increase in benefits of 2 % while inflation is north of 10 %, it gives room to politicians to openly steal from all of us, our pensions and benefits.

If you are fine with that I am not,

Hot labour market drives inflation and demand, it does not destroy them, it is thought in the 1st year at University. Repeating the opposite only because ignorant media keeps repeating it along with the lies for ‘peak inflation’ can only harm one’s reputation.

—-

So did you participate in all that market growth last year and just suddenly arrive at these dire conclusions at the start of the new year? Probably not.

I might sound as bitter and pretentious (you can only understand economics if you went to university?) if I missed out on those double-digit returns last year too.

—Doug

#103 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.08.22 at 10:37 pm

#66 Faron on 01.08.22 at 5:02 pm

Partial or complete fracture? If complete, just be prepared for something closer to 12 weeks.

#104 Dr V on 01.08.22 at 10:40 pm

66 Faron – Yes, it’s not the snow, leaves or water. It’s what’s under the snow, leaves or water.

Clarification to my comment at 61 – should be “have had broken ribs” or “have broken ribs before”. Nothing broke at the moment.

Rest up. Get well soon.

#105 yvr_lurker on 01.08.22 at 10:44 pm

#66 Faron
——–
Hope you are okay with the ribs. I enjoy your posts (generally). A few years ago, after celebrating my kids 15th B-day at the Sandbar on Granville island, I tripped over a step in the dark on one of those little toy boats where the kids play on granville island near the toy stores and landed on the steering wheel of the boat… cracked a few ribs and it was my own stupidity… yet it was funny trying to pretend my kid was 5 years old again…

#106 Dumb Tattoos on 01.08.22 at 10:49 pm

#76 Bad Tattoo on 01.08.22 at 6:42 pm

Me. I’m not sure which I despise more. Tattoos …. or the people that attack those that voice their opinions about their distaste for tattoos… or anything for that matter. They are both pretty ugly in my opinion.

Just imagine if you were to say, break a couple of ribs….

LMAO when you are treated with utter care and professionalism and friendliness by a doc and, as you hoist yourself off the guerney, you don’t note a trace of sleeve tattoo poking out from under his scrubs. JFC

Karma is a beach.

—-

Are tattoos now being used as symbolism for vaccines?

Are you talking about a doctor with a medical exemption?

Or an unvaccinated health care worker taking care of a person in their hour of need?

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.22 at 10:53 pm

#89 Sailo

More similar to a cold than a flu, actually. A healthy individual’s healthy immune system is quite adept at dealing with coronavirusi.

The mortality rate is, in reality, quite low, and has not changed since the initial control cases on cruise ships. Except Omi is less lethal, which is the usual progression from lethal-ish to less lethal. My sentiment remains the same: if we were not able to sequence this, the last two years would have been ‘bad flu years for the oldsters’, no more. 2% mortality is not an emergency unless we turn it into an emergency.

Someone needs to introduce acceptable risk to the discussion.
—————————
Garth did the other day.
Not too many takers.
I remember DG chimed in.
Of course he must have a high tolerance for risk.
But in general, it’s a relative concept.
Take the crazy guy who tries to climb Mt. Everest in winter without oxygen.
Ask him why he’s doing it.
He’ll quip “Because it’s there”.

#108 DON on 01.08.22 at 11:55 pm

#91 Nonplused on 01.08.22 at 9:40 pm
#48 DON on 01.08.22 at 2:35 pm

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2022/01/03/Iran-threatens-revenge-for-Soleimani-killing-if-former-US-President-Trump-not-tried

In another article the Iranian General threatened to send a team to the US. Trump may have to hire an army. lol

Off topic but timely?

——-

Was Soleimani not an Iranian general responsible for Iranian proxies in Iraq during a time of war and on Iraqi soil? Did he not coordinate military action that killed numerous Americans and their Iraqi supporters?
Seems like a legitimate military target to me, no matter how ham-fisted the strike was. What’s that phrase? “Live by the sword….”

It’s all just talk anyway. An Iranian sponsored terrorist attack on US soil will seal their fate. They should go and ask Bin Laden how such things work out.

*********

I wouldn’t think they would attempt a hit on US soil. Regardless, a threat still makes one think twice.

Would going after Trump warrant the same response as Bin Laden and the Office Towers?

Just posting the news.

#109 Harley on 01.09.22 at 12:07 am

Our sun gradually warms, heating the planet ever si slightly. Eventually as the sun expands it engulfs the planet. No amount of sustainable development shifting Of money to the third world will have any effect in the universe. How stupid are we to have listened to the cabal if Green Goons who deny science for the sake of their own enrichment.

Sky News: Astronomers spot dying star just before it explodes and record supernova.
https://news.sky.com/story/astronomers-spot-dying-star-just-before-it-explodes-and-record-supernova-12510823

Yes Mr Carney, I know how your scam works.

#110 Faron on 01.09.22 at 12:53 am

#103 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.08.22 at 10:37 pm
#66 Faron on 01.08.22 at 5:02 pm

Partial or complete fracture? If complete, just be prepared for something closer to 12 weeks.

I didn’t pursue it when the doctor told me I had two broken ribs. I did have the LPN take a photo of the x-rays and the films don’t scream out “thems R broken!” But I’m also not a radiologist. So, I’ll say fractured. Also based on the mild pain at rest and ease breathing all things considered and low impact speed. Fully broken and I imagine breathing would be hell even in a 0g environment.

#105 yvr_lurker on 01.08.22 at 10:44 pm

Ow. Sounds like a similar level of doofishness. Similarly, a friend was resting on a beach during a solo sea kayak and leaned back thinking the backrest beach log was closer than it was. Wound up concussed.

Take home for me is that accidents are like stock market crashes. You can’t really see them coming. Don’t be reckless, but best not to live your life trying to avoid the unavoidable.

#111 Faron on 01.09.22 at 1:15 am

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.08.22 at 10:53 pm
#89 Sailo

I agree in principle, but it’s not possible in reality.

Who decides acceptable risk? Do you think, given the levels of misinformation and outright disinformation that society will make good choices that will correctly assess the ramifications of those choices? No, it won’t. In the same way that fully unregulated capitalism leads to a spoiled environment. Some constructs of society lack the foresight to manage certain phenomena.

Read up on the epidemic intelligence service:

https://www.cdc.gov/eis/index.html

Long before COVID, they had done a ton of careful research on messaging around epidemics and put together a game plan (the movie Outbreak is essentially based on their playbook). Fauci and Henry follow this to a T. It worked (more or less) in BC where there is sufficient education and trust in the common good. In the US it led to a split where 2/3 of the pop think Fauci is a hero and 1/3 wants him hung. All due to a shoddy media landscape and poorly educated populace in the US.

Having the gen pop set public health policy or assess pandemic risk is about like having a bunch of Halo gamers (or climatologists) set middle east military strategy. Fail! Waiting for politicians to enact policy is too slow for a pandemic and political mindedness will always be in direct conflict with effective pandemic management (see also Trumps messaging blunders).

#112 Stealth on 01.09.22 at 2:29 am

Thank you Doug.
In summary point of the article is stay the course and rebalance no matter what.

I think it is proven that DYI get a failing grade at rebalancing. In a future blog perhaps and only if you deem worthwhile could you elaborate on the benefit and perhaps a decent system/mechanism for rebalancing.
From what I heard most folks get the math part however miss the psychological part and benefit on why do it, and how often. Probably the point around selling winners and buying losers would be my guess.

Also, to make things more interesting everyone seems to hate rebalancing by buying bonds instead taking the strategy of paying down the mortgage with an explanation of it being equivalent to buying fixed income.

Thank you again

#113 willworkforpickles on 01.09.22 at 6:52 am

The markets aren’t as shaky now as they will likely be by the end of the year.
They are currently factoring in the Fed’s initial interest rate increases as positive for bringing in a dis-inflationary smoke shield.
Further increasing the interest rates beyond this year will be necessary as the rate increases coming just ahead will do next to nothing to curb inflation in real terms.
Market conditions for most of 2022 shouldn’t become too volatile.
With the Fed out of bullets left firing blanks, next year the hard push to keep rates still moving upward, is going to affect the markets getting caught up in stormier seas.

#114 Habitt on 01.09.22 at 7:37 am

Thanks Mr Doug for the informative post.

#115 ogdoad on 01.09.22 at 8:11 am

#101 Ronaldo on 01.08.22 at 10:25 pm

Holy $hit, dude. Well done! What do you charge your clients ;)

Og

#116 THE DANDADA on 01.09.22 at 9:18 am

#98 Greg on 01.08.22 at 9:59 pm
What would be the catalyst for the much speculated upcoming crash?
—————————-

When it feels to good to be true.

#117 millmech on 01.09.22 at 10:04 am

#92 Observer
The health care system was overwhelmed before COVID, stories of patients stuck in hallways and cloakrooms going back a while.
It has been two years now, how many hospitals could have been built, LPN/RNs trained by now with that 400 billion. They fixed the highways and bridges in weeks because of their importance, why not one COVID hospital per province, we need more anyways.
A 1000 patient hospital was built in seven days!
https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-51280586#:~:text=Xiaotangshan%20Hospital%20was%20built%20in%20seven%20days%2C%20allegedly,record%20for%20the%20fastest%20construction%20of%20a%20hospital.

#118 Sponge on 01.09.22 at 10:17 am

Here’s a history lesson for all you financial cowboys and listeners.. Late 1990s, with a bad financial advisor, sold all company shares and put into Dynamic Power funds, Bell (Nortel spin off time) and labour sponsored funds for the extra tax credit. Fortune financial was a dotcom bust. Waiting for a market all time high for tennish years is a long time! Stay balanced and diverse..

#119 millmech on 01.09.22 at 10:21 am

Dr V
I recommend getting a SPOT emergency beacon, every time I go out it comes with me, have seen it in action twice and it was amazingly accurate.
All it takes is a tumble or a twist and that mile or two to the car could be life or death now with the weather right now.

#120 Sail Away on 01.09.22 at 10:33 am

@Ronaldo

Please share the B&D portfolio that returned 19%.

Sharing is caring. And legitimacy.

#121 mark on 01.09.22 at 11:00 am

#101 Ronaldo on 01.08.22 at 10:25 pm
#20 mark on 01.08.22 at 11:30 am
#4 ogdoad on 01.08.22 at 9:18 am
Good morning!

Too bad media couldn’t incorporate hope and optimism instead of drawing off one of our most basic and powerful emotions. Even in SM, posts that depict despair, anger, and fear receive more views than those of…well…anything else.

We have so much market data spanning who knows how many years. There are already algorithms working and making major decisions as board members (China) and on behalf of clients portfolios (2010 anyone) – no emotion, no second thoughts…just pure, data backed, intelligence.

I have a question: Back in early 2020, when COVID started making news, the market crashed…huge. B/D portfolio dropped like a stone, but recovered. We could assume, with some confidence, that something similar will happen again. Do we plan or stay the course? What would AI do?

Og

********************************************

I have asked that question in a round about way several times about drawdowns/crashes and I hope one of the boys can NERD out and let retiree’s know how much of a loss will endure with a B&D portfolio based on common assets of stocks, bonds, preferred’s etc,
I think -30% as a guess, but I don’t know where/how to nerd out to do calculations based on portfolio construction.

If your close to retirement that a Huge hit!.
—————————————————————
Well, I have no idea when the next big correction will happen or what it will do but I can tell you based on my own experience and with the funds I invest in what occured in the last two major downturns in 2008 and 2020.

Here is what my balanced and diversified 60/40 or thereabouts portfolio did.

In 2008, this fund dropped 18.2% by March 23/09. By end of year 2009, it had recovered by 19.3%. It would have had to recover by 22 1/2% to get back to even. By end of 2010 it recovered by 8.6% so that the fund was now about 6% above what it was before the crash.

So, it took from March 23rd./09 to mid year 2010 to fully recover. However, 2011 was not a good year and the fund dropped 3.06% bringing it back to just 2.1% above the pre crash total. So, 2.7 years of basically no growth from the March 23/09 bottom.

From that point on the gains were: 2012 – 7.8, 2013 – 13.7, 2014 – 11.1, 2015 – 5.1, 2016 – 7.6, 2017 – 9.7, 2018 – minus 2.9, 2019 – 15.8, 2020 – 14.2 and 2021 – 11.5. Only 2018 was a down year.

Now the second major crash that occured on March 23, 2020 the fund dropped 20.7% and then fully recovered by mid June. ( 3 months) and ended the year up 14.2%. Anyone selling out at the March bottom would have taken massive losses.

Now I have to confess that I did not take the loss as stated above in 2009 since in January of 2008 feeling that the situation was very similar to what had happened in January 2001 I decided to adjust my portfolio to 30/70 from 60/40. In addition in September 24th of 2008 I went 90/10 when the Fed Chairman came on TV and basically stated that the world was going to end if the government did not go for the 800 billion dollar bailout. As a result my portfolio was only down slightly more than 5%. In February of 2009 when the banks all hit the 50% drop mark I reverted back to 60/40. I realize that market timing is a no no but there did not appear to be much downside at that point.

I did not have any inclination to do anything with my portfolio in the March 2020 crash. Instead I jumped into the market with cash I had sitting around and purchased copper and energy stocks which turned out to be an exceptionally good move.

For this coming year because of the interest rate rises expected I have reduced the exposure to certain bonds and increased my equity exposure to 70%. Will see what happens.
******************************************

Thanks for sharing how your portfolio did during a downturn, such a contentious subject, depending on portfolio assets and what kind of loss one can incur depending on what assets in portfolio, Thanks.

M.

#122 Satori on 01.09.22 at 11:21 am

#76 Bad Tattoo on 01.08.22 at 6:42 pm

That is to say, tattoos tend to attract attention. … That seems to suggest that tattoos represent attention-seeking behavior, which is a hallmark of narcissism…

An insecure person might acquire tattoos as a way of fostering their masculinity or toughness. The person might get more and more tattoos as there are never enough tattoos to cover their own insecurity and fear.

There’s the mental health analysis, as for ink being poison… no one cares.

#123 Prince Polo on 01.09.22 at 11:26 am

#19 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 11:23 am
#5 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 01.08.22 at 9:19 am
any idea when the housing tax-free account is going to be unleash’d? It’s almost time for my mid-life crisis….tick-tock.
****
If you are mid life, you are too old to qualify. Need to be less than 40.

Just buy a Ferrari. Your spouse will love you for it. You’ll be the coolest old fart on the block.

I am less than 40 and too tall to sit comfortably in a Ferrari. What else ya got?

#124 Satori on 01.09.22 at 11:29 am

#81 Drinking on 01.08.22 at 7:17 pm
This system is just not working, the number of bottle pickers in my back lane; many are well dressed is just sad.
___________________
Ditto, one of the guy who collect in our lanes…a few blocks away I was walking, and he was loading the bags from his cart into his white Mercedes SUV.

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.22 at 11:46 am

Another anti vax wing nut trying to convince everyone the “conspiracies” are real.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/former-calgary-mayoral-candidate-arrested-at-u-s-border-after-skipping-canadian-jail-appearance-1.5727503

And his “escape plan” was to hike across the US border and plead ‘asylum”.
Aparently.
Waaaay too much time on the internet QAnon sites causes brain softening…

Toss him in prison AFTER giving him a Vaccine
:)

#126 Damifino on 01.09.22 at 11:54 am

Hearing that a disease ripping through the population like a bush fire in July is “more like the flu” brings no comfort to me whatsoever.

Twice in my life I’ve had bouts of influenza that were utterly horrendous. And that was when I was much younger and more robust. I’d have done anything to avoid it then and even more so now.

I haven’t missed an annual flu vaccination for about 30 years. Usually on the very day they become available. I’m also thrice vaccinated for COVID-19.

Although I though I was getting Covid about eight times since this pandemic began, it was just old fashioned hypochondria every time. Lucky me.

People call anything “the flu”. But real influenza is a serious respiratory disease not to be trifled with. It’s legacy is more formidable than COVID, so far.

It was said during the 1918-1920 flu pandemic you could be feeling well in the morning and dead by nightfall. An exaggeration probably, but not too far off the mark for many.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.22 at 12:43 pm

@#123 Prince Polo
“I am less than 40 and too tall to sit comfortably in a Ferrari. What else ya got?”

+++

I hear Dodge Caravans are pretty roomy.
Enough room for you AND your polo mallets.

#128 KLNR on 01.09.22 at 12:43 pm

@#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 9:49 pm
@#52 KLNR
“you folks get triggered on the weirdest things.”

+++

Its the constant barrage of Wokeness, political correctness, BLM, on and on and on.

I figured I’d join the bandwagon.

just stay away from the news and anybody under 60 :)
you’ll be fine.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.22 at 12:46 pm

@#124 Satorical
“….he was loading the bags from his cart into his white Mercedes SUV….”

+++

Yeah.
The price of gas in the Lowerbrainland is forcing a lot of Leased vehicle owners to find new sources of income.
$.10/can adds up!

#130 leebow on 01.09.22 at 12:49 pm

#120 Sail Away

May I inquire, are you doubting that a B&D could make 19% last year, or that the specific poster made 19%, or that his portfolio is B&D? Do you think seeing his portfolio will improve yuour investment returns next year?

And why do you care?

All this return sharing creates a number of biases in posters and readers, makes everybody worse off. Especially when the shared information is incomplete, such as return without risk profile.

#131 DON on 01.09.22 at 12:55 pm

#122 Satori on 01.09.22 at 11:21 am
#76 Bad Tattoo on 01.08.22 at 6:42 pm

That is to say, tattoos tend to attract attention. … That seems to suggest that tattoos represent attention-seeking behavior, which is a hallmark of narcissism…

An insecure person might acquire tattoos as a way of fostering their masculinity or toughness. The person might get more and more tattoos as there are never enough tattoos to cover their own insecurity and fear.

There’s the mental health analysis

*********

Or some people could just like tattoos.

Just like some people like Buick cars or likef the Ford Pinto. Tattoos have been around in some cultures for a long time.

I made the choice to never get one. To each their own. Life is too short for these hang ups. Besides where I grew up you wouldn’t point and laugh at someone who had a tattoo. Most were army, loggers, fisherman, and HA.

#132 Quintilian on 01.09.22 at 1:28 pm

“#98 Greg on 01.08.22 at 9:59 pm
What would be the catalyst for the much speculated upcoming crash?”

Too many to mention- not accustomed to write long decertations like some of the pretentious regulars here.

But let’s start with the world wide realization that Central Bankers and politicians are prophets of the same false gods.

#133 Faron on 01.09.22 at 2:15 pm

#117 millmech on 01.09.22 at 10:04 am

No field hospitals have been built because this is a country with regs and standards (more or less). There weren’t enough staff to support them given that, even without COVID, we were facing a Dr. and nurse shortage. That would leave recruiting volunteers or bringing on minimally trained staff. How do you think patients would have reacted if they learned they were being intubated by a clerk from GameStop?

In China the gov’t can do pretty much whatever the heck it wants including moving docs and nurses around the country against their will and forcing severe lockdowns. This makes containment and amplifying treatment capacity much more doable.

The US, with it’s large military and large military medical system was more capable in this regard.

#134 Tarth Gurner on 01.09.22 at 2:17 pm

I’m more concerned about the P/E ratios. What are the chances that corporate earnings increase by 50% within the next year?

#135 Faron on 01.09.22 at 2:22 pm

#126 Damifino on 01.09.22 at 11:54 am

Good points. I’m also triple vaxxed with a few delta antibodies rolling around for good measure. Taking precautions against Omicron, but not personally worried about getting it. However, if I do get it I’ll do everything I can to not spread it. I expect a mild case for me, but I can’t speak for the health status of whomever I could pass it to. N95s only for me right now.

Unfortunately, the vaccine against crashing one’s bike like a doofus hasn’t been invented yet.

#136 @baloney brain on 01.09.22 at 2:23 pm

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 01.08.22 at 10:17 am
Omicron is still burning through the unvaxxed dry tinder, so it has a few more weeks to claim victims. What do we do about these self-righteous dunderheads who are putting everyone at risk and occupying hospital beds

Dude u are such a ret.ard it’s unbelievable. Were u groomed by Garth T??

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.09.22 at 3:07 pm

Our Heath Care ranks 30th in the world.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-canada-is-shutting-down-during-omicron-while-the-u-s-stays-open-their-health-care-systems

On another note
Pierre Polivier had a good label for our non finance Finance Minister.

He called her the Minister of Inflation.

#138 Phylis on 01.09.22 at 6:59 pm

#133 Faron on 01.09.22 at 2:15 pm
#117 millmech on 01.09.22 at 10:04 am

No field hospitals have been built because this is a country with regs and standards (more or less). There weren’t enough staff to support them given that, even without COVID, we were facing a Dr. and nurse shortage. That would leave recruiting volunteers or bringing on minimally trained staff. How do you think patients would have reacted if they learned they were being intubated by a clerk from GameStop?

In China the gov’t can do pretty much whatever the heck it wants including moving docs and nurses around the country against their will and forcing severe lockdowns. This makes containment and amplifying treatment capacity much more doable.

The US, with it’s large military and large military medical system was more capable in this regard.
Xxxxxx
Well there was at least one. Let’s see if it get re-installed. Probably a good training exercise either way.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/sunnybrook-begins-removing-medical-equipment-from-field-hospital-1.5499910

#139 Sail Away on 01.10.22 at 10:19 am

Ah, another down day. And fairly uniform across sectors. Beauty.

Good morning to snorfle index while waiting to see further movement. I wonder if Cthulu and yawnicron can team up to deliver a 20% drop? Off to the altar.