Enough stimulation

Let’s consider one small hick city in Ontario. Guelph has 135,000 people, an historic and busy downtown, a Home Depot (the true measure of urban sophistication) and a direct commuter train to downtown Toronto, which is about 70 minutes away by car on a death highway known as the 401.

This week there were 21 listings in the entire place. Only 13 single-family homes. Local realtors say this has never happened before. Prices year/year are up 40% and DOM has dropped to just ten. There are 0 months inventory for sale, in other words. There’s also a lot of Omicron, just like K-W next door and 416 down the road. It’s a weird time everywhere.

The virus did not thwart the real estate market. Instead, it fed the human juices that make people want to nest, get away from a metropolis of six million, and retreat to space, leafy hoods and perceived safety. Thus, a sales explosion, listings contraction and price inflation that is without precedent.

Today’s pathetic blog post will update yesterday’s effort, since it rings truer today.

First the facts. Unless Omicron has other plans, we’re headed for an entire year of monetary upheaval. The economy is throwing off jobs and shedding inflation like crazy. The unemployment rate in the States is now just 3.9% and in Canada (where we count differently) it’s 5.9% – down from 14% in 2020 and slightly above the 2019 level of 5.7%.

This is big.

Wages are growing smartly in the States while the pace of new employee hiring is slowing. This comes while there are record job openings and a historic quit rate. It all suggests employers are shelling out more for help because full employment’s been reached and power is shifting to the workers.

In Canada, same story. Job creation strong, wages rising, and now Omicron’s temporary decimation of worker ranks underscores the message. Over 123,000 new full-time jobs were created last month and a ton of part-timers found career work. In all of 2021 the country pumped out 886,000 – a record. We are 240,000 jobs ahead of where we were when you’d never heard of “Covid-19”. Clearly this economy no longer needs to be on life support.

Yes, CBs will raise interest rates in 2022 and Friday’s labour market stats seem to seal the deal. The data shows central banks are actually behind the curve right now, that wage demands will stoke inflation more, and the cost of money may have to move up sooner, and further, than previously expected.

As mentioned yesterday, that’s what the bond market has been trying to tell us. Yields on US treasuries have catapulted from 1.4% to 1.7% and will likely be at 2% within weeks. Oil prices have pushed back into the $80 range from the mid-sixties. Despite the variant we’re all obsessing about, the numbers tell a different tale.

So here’s the latest forecast: a 90% chance the US Fed will start raising rates in March. The betting is there will be four hikes (the Fed had previously hinted at three). In Canada, markets are now pricing in five (yes, 5) rate increases during 2022, and some econoguys believe it could all kick off with the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled announced on January 26.

Despite all the vaxing, masking, closures, pissed-off Quebec drinkers and people jumping off the sidewalk in front of you, the virus was no match for the economy. Employment is at the same level as the BeforeTimes. Participation rates are robust. Wages are up about 3% year/year and last month alone another 31,000 people were hired by government. There are 307,000 more civil servants than there were in 2019.

So that’s it. Little or no slack in the economy. Everybody who wants to work can get a job. The jobless rate at a 50-year low. Labour shortages starting to occur. And a wage-price spiral is clearly on the horizon. “We’ve probably reached full employment,” says RBC.

The only question now is what three, four or five mortgage rate increases in the coming months will do to a housing market that clearly flipped out.

People with historic windfall gains afraid to sell have no idea what may lie ahead.

About the picture: “Thank you for your blog,” writes Chris. ” It has helped me make better financial choices, and I really appreciate that you take the time to post every day for our edification! As for the picture, the caption says it all.  Poor pooch.”

105 comments ↓

#1 DON on 01.07.22 at 3:17 pm

#168 Quintilian on 01.07.22 at 1:00 pm
#157 DON on 01.07.22 at 11:38 am

Just to point out how ridiculously ignorant of economics and heavily influenced by hype and to what degree RE is a cult in Canada, particularly in BC. I was travelling on Vancouver Island when Meghan Markle and Prince Harry moved there, a radio talk show had a real estate “expert” to explain how that might affect the housing market.

There is nothing but hype holding this gasbag together.

**********
I get and see your point and example.

Easy credit is the fuel that enables the cultural hype stream.

The royal thing is so over, ask Prince Andrew and the King of Spain. lmao.

#2 Faron on 01.07.22 at 3:27 pm

#126 DON on 01.07.22 at 1:33 am

W/re y’all:

Was following the KY tornado outbreak on Twitter a month ago. Sometimes people put their pronouns on their profile. One fellow’s read:

He/him/y’all

Made an otherwise heavy night a bit lighter.

#3 Prince Polo on 01.07.22 at 3:28 pm

History has shown that our dear Photo-op Minister cares not for fiscal restraint. What is actually stopping this guy from introducing 50yr amortizations? The message is clear – unless you own a house, you are a complete loser in Canadian society.

#4 Old Salt on 01.07.22 at 3:34 pm

In my part of Kitchener a realtor search shows a 5 to 1 ratio of houses for rent to those for sale. It used to be the opposite.

Would like to know how many are move up buyers and budding amateur landlords that hope the old house will rent out and pay for them both.

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 3:35 pm

The issue we’re having in the Lower Mainland now, is that because of the low inventory, no one wants to sell, because there are no units to buy.
If they sell, they could be without a place to live.
It’s kinda a catch 22 situation.
Going deeper down the rabbit hole of RE insanity.

#6 BOC on 01.07.22 at 3:40 pm

The Bank of Canada can’t hike more than the Fed can they?

#7 Faron on 01.07.22 at 3:45 pm

#162 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 11:47 am
Picked up some NASDAQ index today at -8% below 52-week low.

Wait, what? It’s nowhere near the 52wk low. -8 relative to what?

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 3:46 pm

Regarding tats.
Not a big fan of them.
Is it not what we tried to get away from when we left the jungle?
What societal purpose if filled by people sporting tats?
Aside from providing income for tattoo ” artists?
What concerns me that all these tats on your body can cover up any malignant moles.
Maybe somebody has some insights into this.
Also, it can’t be healthy for your skin.
Dr. V, what’s your take on this?
Just kidding.

#9 TurnerNation on 01.07.22 at 3:46 pm

#142 KLNR on 01.07.22 at 9:00 am
So what you are saying Bro is a few hundred people are in ICU – out of 15,000,000 in Ontario. And you personally STILL don’t have the right to go to a gym, or sit in a restaurant or see a hockey game. And the Charter still is suspended (since WW3 was declared March 2020). Got it.


How we KNOW this is a War on Small Business. You may sit down and eat only while at the Airport.
Science in Kanada. Sure…the Re-Closing Act.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2022/01/indoor-dining-open-some-restaurants-ontario-it-would-be-expensive-meal/
“But there is at least one place people can go for indoor dining in the GTA — the airport. Under the Reopening Ontario Act, the ban on indoor dining does not apply to “establishments on hospital premises or in an airport”


— The eggheads no longer can ignore this Planned shutdown.

“Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Andrew Grantham said in a note to clients on Thursday: “Exports showed a solid advance. … However, even if that momentum has continued into the start of 2022, it is unlikely to be enough to offset the drag to overall economic growth from renewed service sector restrictions.” He was referring to public-health measures brought in to combat the Omicron variant.” (stockwatch.com)

— Oh yes, our World Class health care system and jacked taxes. Worth it!
One of these things is not like the other:

.The Ontario Hospital Association is urging Premier Doug Ford’s government to steer clear of ordering hospitals or other public sector employers to rehire workers who were terminated for refusing to be vaccinated against COVID-19. (thestar.com)

.Canada headed for nursing shortage ‘beyond anything we’ve ever experienced’: experts (globalnews.ca)

.Ontario tells hospitals to stop non-urgent surgeries, procedures to preserve critical-care capacity (cbc.ca)

#10 E J on 01.07.22 at 3:49 pm

sell before it’s too late

#11 vanreal on 01.07.22 at 3:51 pm

It sounds like we need increased immigration to keep wages from going up. Increase from 400,000 to 800,000 per year. that will also pump the price of houses.

#12 Mid-wife crisis on 01.07.22 at 3:57 pm

#124 Faron on 01.07.22 at 12:06 am
#99 Haters gonna hate tattoos on 01.06.22 at 9:04 pm

All I ask is that you send Garth a glossy photo so we can all have a look and a laugh!

Trigger easily? Rhetorical question.

I usually put question marks at the ends of questions even if only rhetorical.

Indeed, triggered by dunces who hate tattoos enough to invent screen names and rant about them.

—————-
You know you’ve won the battle AND the war when thudforks like this guy resort to such silly tactics as criticizing others grammar and punctuation on an informal blog. If only you were correct about that.

FYI, Mr. know-it-all

“Depending on the context, a rhetorical question may be punctuated by a question mark (?), full stop (.), or exclamation mark (!),[5] but some sources argue that it is required to use a question mark for any question, rhetorical or not.”

Just so you are clear… I hate most tattoos. You will not change my mind because i find most of them ugly and despjcable.

Probably best you give up while you are behind… way behind. You’ve embarrassed yourself far too much already!

#13 Oakville Rocks! on 01.07.22 at 4:07 pm

Guelph – small hick city? Surely you jest Garth.

On this dog friendly blog, how can you talk about Guelph and not mention that Guelph is the home of Ontario’s agriculture/veterinary/animal husbandry school. Lots of cutting edge farming / livestock research is done here. The Yukon Gold potato was invented here.

Guelph along with Kitchener Waterloo is part of Ontario’s high tech triangle.

And Guelph has a picturesque downtown, a river runs through it.

Not everyone measures a town’s worth by how far it is from the Big Smoke or if it has GO Train service, although those are nice to know & have.

Lastly, if you are feeling over stimulated – enjoy this webcam of people skating in Guelph’s market square.
https://guelph.ca/living/arts-and-culture/market-square-2/

#14 Southpark Sammy on 01.07.22 at 4:14 pm

Gee, wonder why? Can it be inflation is out of control and wages haven’t really went up? Who knew if you run out of cash to survive you run up your credit cards and make the banks even more wealthy? AMAZING.
Yet the 1% who control the banks don’t have a care in the world as they control the FED, banks and politicians and the 99% of us sit here like lemmings and just watch….Nice system if you can create it…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shocking-consumer-credit-numbers-us-credit-card-debt-soars-most-record-savings-long-gone

#15 Brian on 01.07.22 at 4:14 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#16 Faron on 01.07.22 at 4:16 pm

New post COVID crash high for the 10yr. Good time to check data on how various sectors respond to higher rates and tune accordingly. I.e. you may have noticed your bank stocks holding up very nicely lately.

Haven’t seen high yield corp debt sell off yet. It will come and will signal that the real rotation is under way IMO.

Equity markets still have some support from option dealer positioning (the guys buying your call selling). A big chunk goes away Jan 19th ish At MOpEx. I expect a bounce between now and then as the selling seems a bit ripe for the BTFDers. Then correction (with upper reference being recent Maths) then in Feb the pieces get picked up and quality companies will prevail as profitless garbage continues to wither.

My ideas/opinions.

#17 Love_The_Cottage on 01.07.22 at 4:17 pm

In Canada, markets are now pricing in five (yes, 5) rate increases during 2022, and some econoguys believe it could all kick off with the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled announced on January 26.
_______
Should be a 25 bp increase on Jan 26 and we’ll see from there. I am skeptical of seeing 5 increases (I’ll take under 4.5 if anyone is willing to take the over) but the first 2 or 3 are long overdue.

#18 Nonplused on 01.07.22 at 4:21 pm

Be nice if this chart were updated for 2021:

https://www.bls.gov/emp/graphics/total-employment.htm

If you chose original data for total employment from this widget:

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

You can get a graph showing “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”. Or you can get a table. I don’t know why they always want to leave out farm payrolls but I doubt it is a big factor. Anyways, the US is as of Jan. 7th still about 5 million jobs short of the peak just before covid. It’s getting better but the unemployment statistic is not useful because the denominator is detached from either jobs or working population, and instead floats around on an arbitrary definition of what constitutes looking for work hard enough, i.e. you have to have been employed within so many months or you get dropped from the stat.

I posted some graphs a few days ago on labor participation rates, which remain historically low. This contradicts the unemployment statistic but confirms the total employment statistic. Fact is they simply aren’t counting 5 million jobs that have disappeared when they tell you what they think the unemployment rate is. It is a bunk number, only useful if the total employment and labor participation rates are assumed to be more or less constant or growing, which they have not been.

So be careful with those stats, folks! Margarine isn’t butter, so make sure and read the ingredients when baking your cookies (or stats)!

———————————————–

As I said yesterday, I am not sure rising rates will make houses more affordable for our typical steerage section would be purchaser, i.e. no down payment, lousy job, young, student loan, votes liberal. Sure, house prices may drop, taking perhaps some of the capital gains discussion and making it moot (capital loses are tax deductible), but will the monthly drop? A smaller loan perhaps, but at higher interest rates. Utilities aren’t going down, in fact they are set to rise substantially as the rest of the carbon taxes kick in. Property taxes aren’t going down because the city just adjusts the mill rate. Maintenance only goes up with inflation. And everybody seems to think more and higher taxes is just what wee need, leaving less income to pay for things like housing.

———————————–

So in summary, the jobs market ain’t that great, they are lying with statistics again, and no, housing is not going to get more affordable as rates rise.

#19 Southtown Sammy on 01.07.22 at 4:27 pm

Gee, wonder why? Can it be inflation is out of control and wages haven’t really went up? Who knew if you run out of cash to survive you run up your credit cards and make the banks even more wealthy? AMAZING.
Yet the 1% who control the banks don’t have a care in the world as they control the FED, banks and politicians and the 99% of us sit here like lemmings and just watch….Nice system if you can create it…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shocking-consumer-credit-numbers-us-credit-card-debt-soars-most-record-savings-long-gone

#20 mj on 01.07.22 at 4:28 pm

who is in better shape, Canada or the U.S.

#21 Jake on 01.07.22 at 4:52 pm

My daughter went to Guelph and to visit her pre-covid times the commute from T.O. was usually a brutal 90 mins to 2 hours. Everything slows to a crawl around Milton. She’s graduated now, don’t miss the ride one bit.

#22 Squire on 01.07.22 at 4:56 pm

Surprise ! I guess universal health care is not exactly the best. The USA is definitely in better shape. They are not as meek and scared as Canadians either LOL
They also have more respect than we do as they don’t regularly bash Canadians like we bash Americans because in Kanada we think we are so smart.

#23 Damifino on 01.07.22 at 5:00 pm

The only tattoos that put me off are found on attractive young women that look like they’ve let their seven-year-old brother have at them with a felt marker. Makes them look like they’ve done some hard time.

#24 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 5:03 pm

#7 Faron on 01.07.22 at 3:45 pm
#162 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 11:47 am

Picked up some NASDAQ index today at -8% below 52-week low.

——–

Wait, what? It’s nowhere near the 52wk low. -8 relative to what?

——–

I bet you can figure it out

#25 KLNR on 01.07.22 at 5:06 pm

@#12 Mid-wife crisis on 01.07.22 at 3:57 pm
#124 Faron on 01.07.22 at 12:06 am
#99 Haters gonna hate tattoos on 01.06.22 at 9:04 pm

All I ask is that you send Garth a glossy photo so we can all have a look and a laugh!

Trigger easily? Rhetorical question.

I usually put question marks at the ends of questions even if only rhetorical.

Indeed, triggered by dunces who hate tattoos enough to invent screen names and rant about them.

—————-
You know you’ve won the battle AND the war when thudforks like this guy resort to such silly tactics as criticizing others grammar and punctuation on an informal blog. If only you were correct about that.

FYI, Mr. know-it-all…

You’ve embarrassed yourself far too much already!

pot meet kettle.

#26 Søren Angst on 01.07.22 at 5:25 pm

Gratified to read yesterday that:

Canadians Prefer Rate Hikes to high inflation

87% of them, even though 51% know they will be negatively impacted – Nanos Bloomberg poll.

Talk about doing the RIGHT THING and a GOOD people.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/canadians-prefer-rate-hikes-during-highest-inflation-since-2003

—————–

Pretty sure the CB reads the news like I do.

Increases it is then and probably much sooner than later.

#27 yorkville renter on 01.07.22 at 5:29 pm

and some econoguys believe it could all kick off with the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled announced on January 26

This should help the Spring RE market as all those investors take the first rate hike as an indicator that the party is over and it’s time to sell.

hoping for a deluge, but I think it’ll be a light sprinkle – we’ll see!

#28 the Jaguar on 01.07.22 at 5:29 pm

“This week there were 21 listings in the entire place. Only 13 single-family homes. Local realtors say this has never happened before. Prices year/year are up 40% and DOM has dropped to just ten. There are 0 months inventory for sale, in other words. There’s also a lot of Omicron, just like K-W next door and 416 down the road. It’s a weird time everywhere.” – GT ++++

So, I am reminded of something I read in the past which was:

“So, I will say it once more. In crayon.
Sales fall first. Prices later. Usually a lot later. For example the US housing market peaked in the autumn of 2005 in terms of sales, but prices did not crest until two years later. The reason is simple. There are always people ready to buy a house who don’t follow the capital markets, monetary policy or leading indicators. Instead they have hormones, emotions and parents screaming at them to grow a set and get a mortgage.

So sales may decline, but prices stick. And as few foolish buyers show up with offers, more homeowners take their properties off the market. So listings fall, while prices don’t. This stage can last for some time – maybe a year, even – until economic conditions change, forcing people to sell their homes.

Those could include a moribund economy in which families have too much debt, rising interest rates or taxes, another financial crisis, or it could be house-rich retiring boomers realizing all of the above. Whatever. Once real estate has achieved unaffordable levels, and people realize it is both overpriced and vulnerable, then falling sales become falling prices” – GT.

So…………..my question to you GT, is how exactly do we know that the current listings/sales numbers are related to low supply versus several of the factors you wrote about previously, i.e. are people holding back from listing their properties because there are fewer foolish buyers showing up? So many of the factors you mentioned are present in the current day scenario……………. (?)

(full disclosure: Home Dept, Lowes, and essentially any hardware store that sells seasonal items is a magnet for the Jaguar. I love clever little lawn sprinklers more than IHCTD9 loves tractors. The best ones come from independent stores in the USA.

#29 Nick on 01.07.22 at 5:30 pm

Housing in Lower Brainland doubles every 5years. Last cycle was 4 years. With 90% leverage from taxpayer funded insured mortgage, it’s a no brainer to buy anytime. It’s upa-up…..dirty laundered money needs to go somewhere – either UK or Canada. Prime destinations.

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 5:34 pm

#20 mj on 01.07.22 at 4:28 pm
who is in better shape, Canada or the U.S.
—————
I don’t by into the mantra “Never bet against America”.
In the 80s and early 90s, the Mantra in the IT departments was “No one got ever fired for buying IBM”.
So they bought IBM personal computers and Microsoft DOS, which was preinstalled on the computers.
Even though most experts said that the computers and Microsoft DOS were inferior products to what was out there.
Apple Computers were considered not fit for serious business applications.
And Bill Gates said “Why would anyone need more than 640 Kb of memory?”
Some genius.

#31 Faron on 01.07.22 at 5:38 pm

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 3:46 pm
Regarding tats.
Not a big fan of them.
Is it not what we tried to get away from when we left the jungle?
What societal purpose if filled by people sporting tats

Sorry Ponz, but you’ve outdone yourself here. Occasionally your euro lefty-ness reveals it’s superficiality. Can you tell me what societal purpose any fashion has? Should we all just be wearing tan tunics of various thicknesses to meet our thermal needs?

#12 Mid-wife crisis on 01.07.22 at 3:57 pm

Please continue, I need the entertainment today (you are batting 0.150 at the mo)! This tattoo thread is 1) 100% predictable and 2) incredibly revealing. I’m engaging because I find it utterly fascinating how much people care about a non-issue like this that is easily a stand-in for numerous other issues nobody should care about but our remnant Victorian manners (and religious or conservative tropes) have us see as important.

LMAO when you are treated with utter care and professionalism and friendliness by a doc and, as you hoist yourself off the guerney, note a trace of sleeve tattoo poking out from under her scrubs. JFC.

#32 Søren Angst on 01.07.22 at 5:39 pm

World in a p!ssy Mood and lashing out at anyone not towing the line.

The Swiss find a “Djoker” Instagram post where according to them he is esoteric.

Djokovic * said: “Personally, I am against vaccinations. I don’t want someone forcing me to take a vaccine in order to travel .“

The Serb never gave precise reasons for his point of view.

However, it is known that Djokovic is considered a fan of esotericism.

In May 2020, shortly after his vaccination statements, he appeared in an Instagram Video with:

Chervin Jafarieh, a self-proclaimed alchemist.

In it, the Iranian said that:

You can change the molecular structure of water just by thinking.

https://www.20min.ch/story/deshalb-wehrt-sich-novak-djokovic-gegen-die-corona-impfung-368331762149

—————–

* Djokovic did not pursue any education post-graduation from high school and instead began his tennis career at 13 (German tennis academy).

Google Kindness Code for a:

Grade 8 Junior High School Dropout.

#33 Faron on 01.07.22 at 5:42 pm

#184 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 2:27 pm

Nah, not me. You have me confused for one of the other Americans here. You know, the one who loves Tesla and takes gov’t handouts and may or may not have adjusted his businesses balance sheet in a manner that allowed him to buy TSLA when the CEWS rolled in. Maybe you know him?

#34 Dreamweaver on 01.07.22 at 5:43 pm

No listings means no one is in the realtors cars looking.
Imagine that?
Hungry realtors would have armloads of listings if they had people looking or knew others in their office with people looking.
Real estate freeze up like the 90s.
No sales, no income, welfare line for many realtors.
Expect tens of thousands to pack it in and tear up their licenses.
It always ends this way.
You have to list to last.

#35 Soviet Capitalist on 01.07.22 at 5:48 pm

Will need to see rates rise and stay there for more than a couple of months before I start believing it.

#36 Kilo on 01.07.22 at 6:03 pm

Quick update. You featured our Kilo in one of your blog photos shortly ago (I believe in November, the ice fishing one), we had to put him down last night.

Thanks for giving him a day on this blog. He will be missed.

My thoughts are with you. – Garth

#37 AA Dog Sponsor on 01.07.22 at 6:07 pm

That dog has a drinking problem. The bottle is already empty and he still won’t let go of it.

#38 zee on 01.07.22 at 6:09 pm

Hi Garth

Can you tell me why higher rates are negative for the Housing market if everyone is already being stress tested at much higher rates and can afford it and are going ahead with their purchase.

#39 Gravy Train on 01.07.22 at 6:14 pm

18 Nonplused on 01.07.22 at 4:21 pm
“The unemployment statistic is not useful because the denominator is detached from either jobs or working population, […]” You have no idea what you’re talking about. “The basic concepts involved in identifying the employed and unemployed are quite simple:
• People with jobs are employed.
• People who are jobless, looking for a job, and available for work are unemployed.
• The labour force is made up of the employed and the unemployed.
• People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labour force.”

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#concepts

To see who is counted as unemployed, click the link below.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed

To see who is not in the labour force, click the link below.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#nilf

“The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labour force.”
https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#unemp

“[…] and instead floats around on an arbitrary definition of what constitutes looking for work hard enough, i.e. you have to have been employed within so many months or you get dropped from the stat.” No, there are six alternative measures of unemployment: U-1 to U-6. The measure most often reported in the press is U-3. For the latest measures, click the link below.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

“I posted some graphs a few days ago on labour participation rates, which remain historically low. This contradicts the unemployment statistic but confirms the total employment statistic.” There’s no contradiction. The denominator of the unemployment rate is the labour force.

“Fact is they simply aren’t […]” Do us all a favour, and take an introductory macroeconomics class. You’re embarrassing yourself. :P

#40 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 6:16 pm

#28 the Jaguar on 01.07.22 at 5:29 pm

full disclosure: Home Dept, Lowes, and essentially any hardware store that sells seasonal items is a magnet for the Jaguar. I love clever little lawn sprinklers more than IHCTD9 loves tractors.

——–

IH does indeed love his cumbersome and unwieldy chunks of non-working turn-of-the-century mechanical statuary that can be restored with a relatively insignificant outlay of 164,000 man-hours and a bare-bones fabrication shop, including but not limited to: welders, lathes, sanders, polishers, hoists, air tools, hand tools, breaker bars, pry bars, micrometers, multiple hammers, as well as a good working knowledge of all mechanical history since the dawn of time.

Similar to Wrk.Dover in that, actually, except that W crafts his own tools from mammoth tusks and iron ore deposits.

More power to you, Jag!

#41 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:19 pm

31 Faron. Yes, you need something to do today.

I want snowshoes. Need something to do when the biking isnt so great around here. Interested if you have
an opinion for what is best, or what are the tradeoffs for the conditions that are typical around these parts. I envision most hikes starting on some lower level wet icy stuff before getting to anything resembling deep powder
or packed powder.

Leaning towards a plastic/composite deck for robustness with longtitudenal serrated edges or crampons for grip on the slick stuff.

Also need to know how best to judge max loads. Is it better to buy near the top of the spec, or leave a good safety margin? I would only be wearing a day pack, at
least to start, so adding maybe 10kg to body weight.

Thanks

#42 Søren Angst on 01.07.22 at 6:20 pm

Some of the Twitter Hive tweets over the past few days keep saying that…

Omicron is not mild.

For example, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding:

“People forget the nature of exponential math. If you have 10x, 20x greater number within 2-3 weeks, that out swamps any benefit of 2x lower mild. That’s why we see hospitalization rates surging across multiple countries”

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1479536664380944390

Decided to fact check if that were true.

Sought out Canary in the Coal Mine UK data first, view charts: Patients admitted to hospital and Patients in hospital.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

1/1

Went to the other Canary in… Denmark at Our World in Data. Same thing. Steep rise in Hospital Admissions and Hospital Patients (Denmark not as steep a rise as the UK for the latter).

2/2

There is a time lag between increasing hospitalizations and deaths. ICU patients flat in the UK, on the rise in Denmark (Our World in Data).

Vax still holding.

In both UK and Denmark, a little over 50% of their populations boosted.

————–

Italia doing well at 108K new cases today (UK had 204K per ZOE) and France this past Monday had 400K new cases – a EUROPEAN RECORD (so far). Germans still burying their heads in the sand with the ROCK BOTTOM lowest test rates in the EU. For example, Tests per 1000 people, rounded:

Germany = 3
Italy = 12
France = 15
UK = 21
Denmark = 25

Still, Italia freaking out looking at what is happening in the rest of EU + Brexit.

————–

SIGN OF THE TIMES.

Not sure this is what Diane Lane and Sandra Oh had in mind in UNDER THE TUSCAN SUN…

https://i.imgur.com/XADQ2lR.png

PCR left, JAB right.

#43 I don’t know on 01.07.22 at 6:23 pm

“ People with historic windfall gains afraid to sell have no idea what may lie ahead”

-More of the same. Ditto for equity markets. More people working, making money, and buying things isn’t exactly a recipe for disaster.

Higher interest rates indicate health, not sickness.

#44 Penny Henny on 01.07.22 at 6:24 pm

#12 Mid-wife crisis on 01.07.22 at 3:57 pm

#99 Haters gonna hate tattoos on 01.06.22 at 9:04 pm

FYI, Mr. know-it-all

“Depending on the context, a rhetorical question may be punctuated by a question mark (?), full stop (.), or exclamation mark (!),[5] but some sources argue that it is required to use a question mark for any question, rhetorical or not.”

Probably best you give up while you are behind… way behind. You’ve embarrassed yourself far too much already!

///////////////

Yikes!
Glad she’s not my wife

#45 VladTor on 01.07.22 at 6:28 pm

… There are 307,000 more civil servants than there were in 2019.

*************
I’m shocked !!!!!

Only one question – why so much…. parasites, sorry (my English still not good) – may be better – very useful for economy employee?
By the way, each of them need at least chair + table +computer + printer+ modem + …etc.

Stat info:

Canada population is 38100000 (38.1 million) with infant, retired, students, pregnant women etc.

In 2020, about 14.8 million people aged 15 years and older were employed on a full-time basis in Canada.

So, in addition , each new of 50 total employed was civil servants and not producing useful goods and GDP.

Guys, If my number is wrong – feel free to recount.

Question for Garth and everybody – you still believe in future Canada economy?

#46 Trigger happy on 01.07.22 at 6:29 pm

34 comments in and this Faron guy has 5 of them. Wow.. Literally every 7th comment is his. Thousands of views but one guy has to be front and center.

His personality can’t handle people who disagree with him. His bosses probably laugh behind his back and are just waiting for him to “pull plug” .

I despise tattoos. Sorry your sloped forehead (and receeding hairline) brain can’t handle that, but thats my choice.

Wonder how much more he will post today? BTW, most losers dont even know they are losers, so i expect more to follow.

#47 Hans on 01.07.22 at 6:32 pm

I don’t get it. Small businesses shutter, yet there’s a hiring spree everywhere? We’re nearing full employment with the virus ramping up again. I don’t understand how 1 – 1 = 2.

#48 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:32 pm

175 facts 176 DON – thanks for your input. I can only speculate on the reason(s) for this apparent high vacancy at a time of extreme prices.

If the vacant home number is correct, or close to it as an indicator of truly unused units, the “crisis” may only be
market driven, and prices have simply gotten ahead of themselves. The shortage of listings may only indicate a combination of bewilderment and apprehension of sellers not being able to buy back in.

Perhaps a little rate hike will fix it all.

#49 Jens on 01.07.22 at 6:35 pm

I am curious what our labour stats will look like once the COVID economy winds down and all the government-funded vaccinators, passport checkers, testing lab personnel, and cleaners have been sent home? Will they all be able to find regular jobs again?

#50 Jens on 01.07.22 at 6:48 pm

Well, there is the possibility of a high-speed train, which would make Guelph a very attractive place to commute from. And with a bit of luck, those millennials will be able to ride it just before they go into retirement.

#51 mark on 01.07.22 at 6:52 pm

Don’t get screwed by your employer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGO-ZXkd3Hg

Basic severance and EI if you leave because of employer policy?

#52 Søren Angst on 01.07.22 at 6:53 pm

Gave more thought to the if all vehicles were a Tesla 3 in 2018 only 13M would be able to charge with the surplus power generated in Canada meaning 22M would not be able to charge (35M vehicles total in Canada then).

Of course they are NOT all going to charge on the same night at the same time.

HOWEVER it does mean that Utilities will somehow ensure that EV charging is staggered during the day, night and over the week OR make it very expensive so fewer people can afford to charge.

Like saying Gasoline Rationing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odd%E2%80%93even_rationing

One thing for sure, Canada has to add a WHACK more of power to its grid by 2050 to support EV’s.

Seems like Canada is doing that (not much at 8,703 MW or 8,703,000 kWh, power running full tilt around the clock):

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/outlook-2020-long-planned-hydro-gas-plants-in-canada-expected-in-service-56637778

But the new capacity is largely renewable energy and mostly in AB.

Still not much, short fall in 2018 was:

92,567,536,308 kWh to run all 35M EVs (Tesla 3 the standard).

At the above power replacement pace, in 10,600 years or so Canada will get the job done.

—————

Some time in the future to 2015 expect Power RATIONING or HIGH power costs to discourage charging if every motor vehicle in Canada is an EV.

TSLA stock since Jul. 2, 2010 to today:

+26,643.75%

#53 WokeMeUpBeforeYouGo on 01.07.22 at 6:58 pm

Garth, can you explain what you mean when you say markets are pricing in X number of rate increases? How does one calculate or verify that?

#54 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.07.22 at 7:08 pm

NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.
A big time rock star Realtor from the big smoke, has just ran a two page Centre spread in our little paper , (Kawartha Lakes This week) Heading ” We have Toronto buyers, Get more for your property, let us show you how.” He then sets the hook with “MULTI- MILLION DOLLAR GUARANTEED HOME SELLING SYSTEM. Oh, by the by, he just happens to head up the # 1 Real Estate team in the world. And, by the by, he also sponsor’s, The Children’s Miracle Network, and wait there’s more, The Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation. What’s not to like? I suspect the local Realtor’s who have spent years getting up to speed on wells, septic systems, zoning issues , environmental concerns, etc, are thrilled to have a heavy hitter move into our area. Apparently, you don’t need local experience, besides a Real Estate license allows you to trade anywhere in Ontario. I am sure the local realtors, some who work for the same parent company will be more than happy to welcome a big hitter to town. I am thinking along the lines of a cold, cold, shoulder. Sleep tight my beauties.

#55 cuke and tomato picker on 01.07.22 at 7:10 pm

Your last line hit the nail on the head yes we had a great windfall this year but as we get older we will need a place with less work outside but where to go is the question.

#56 ValleyBoy on 01.07.22 at 7:11 pm

Raising rates works well for curbing inflation. Just look at turkey, and Venezuela.

#57 VladTor on 01.07.22 at 7:16 pm

In addition on my post. I predict some objections.

I clearly understand that some civil servants we need – polices, firefighters, nurses. Canada population growing!

How many of them was hired from 307000?

Lets do quiz! My number not more than 25000. Any other ideas?

We have huge deficit and what would do smart government – cut existing positions civil servants which of course not include my list above and instead hire employees who is important for country.

Push other work harder – for what we have computers and sophisticated software?

They have to work 8 hrs instead 2 hrs and 6 hrs just doing bla-bla-bla.

#58 That didn't age well on 01.07.22 at 7:17 pm

#26 Roial1 on 12.30.20 at 3:36 pm
#19 Catalyst on 12.30.20 at 3:19 pm

1) We have no stock market. It’s comprised of gov’t allowed monopolies in financials and utilities. Nobody has made any money and in fact lost massive amounts of purchasing power by owning Canadian companies the last 20 years. Lately, the TSX
______________________________________

This door knob does not know squat.

As a Canadian investor, We (my wife and I) have almost doubled our net worth over the last 10 years.
We do our due diligence in getting advice from our 1%er and mostly fallow it.

There are LOTS of great opportunities in Canadian companies.

Bet this dolt has never heard of a co. called Boralex. Just one example of what’s out there. and of coarse Shopify. Just stop the negative and open your eyes.

……………

Wow. What a difference a year makes! I guess this “dolt” is thanking his stars that he hasn’t heard of these.

BORALEX – down 43%
SHOPIFY – down 5%

Any other picks you made so we know which ones we should avoid? Or is it pretty well every one you tell us about?

Good things the job market is pretty good. You and your wife might be able to go back to work.

Much like Faron, that didn’t age well!

#59 NewWest on 01.07.22 at 7:18 pm

#28 the Jaguar on 01.07.22 at 5:29 pm

(full disclosure: Home Dept, Lowes, and essentially any hardware store that sells seasonal items is a magnet for the Jaguar. I love clever little lawn sprinklers more than IHCTD9 loves tractors. The best ones come from independent stores in the USA.

————————–

I love hardware stores too. My January treat will be a trip to Home Depot and Home Hardware once it warms up and starts raining here again. Weather stripping, new outdoor electrical outlets, power bars – way better than Winners!

When I’m back in Vancouver it’s Northern Building Supply and Lee Valley. And on the prairies it’s hands down Peavey Mart. I mean, toy John Deere combine harvesters! horse fly masks! chick brooder kits! live bees! What’s not to love?

#60 Ustabe on 01.07.22 at 7:20 pm

@ #41 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:19 pm

I’m not Faron but I have done many miles over many years on snowshoes.

There is a far longer explanation but basically First Nations that lived on the Prairies used snowshoes that were quite a bit different that those of the Boreal forest tribes.

The rounded “bear paw” shoes that are short, almost as wide as they are long with minimal upturn to the front and no tail to the rear are ideal for walking in the bush and on prepared trails.

For cutting trail on open ground you want the longer, narrower, upturned nose and long tail dragging behind.

Its not the snow so much as the terrain that dictate what type you want. Flat, rolling or mountainous.

Flat terrain are least expensive but won’t come with heel lift which you need in rolling terrain. Rolling won’t come with the types of traction available on mountain shoes. Etc.

So, like life, its a compromise. Don’t buy at CanTire or Cabellas, do buy at REI or MEC, somewhere where they have subject matter experts on hand.

#61 Barb on 01.07.22 at 7:23 pm

#36 Kilo on 01.07.22 at 6:03 pm

Feel so sad at this news…condolences. I know the pain.
Thank dog for memories; they’ll sustain you now.
—————————–

As to Chris’ posted photo today, wonderful to see a member of the family that recycles.

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 7:24 pm

#31 Faron on 01.07.22 at 5:38 pm
#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 3:46 pm
Regarding tats.
Not a big fan of them.
Is it not what we tried to get away from when we left the jungle?
What societal purpose if filled by people sporting tats

Sorry Ponz, but you’ve outdone yourself here. Occasionally your euro lefty-ness reveals it’s superficiality. Can you tell me what societal purpose any fashion has? Should we all just be wearing tan tunics of various thicknesses to meet our thermal needs?
—————–
If the topic of the day would have been fashion, I’d say the same.
Fashion, what is it good for?
And Kant would have agreed with me. I’m sure.
No issue with tunics, or buffalo leather coats or camel coats. Had one myself. Great for snowy days.
As long as the clothes fit the weather.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 7:40 pm

Talking about fashion and ” swoosches” and “Just do it” logos.
You ever wonder why these t-shirts cost twice as much as an identical without a logo.
Should’nt NIKE be paying you to wear their stuff.
After all, You are a living, walking advertisement for them.
Pretty stupid, is it not?

#64 Cowtown Cowboy on 01.07.22 at 7:44 pm

Dang, just tested positive for the ‘Rona..

Here I thought it was just a regular cold/flu, good news I got to call in sick on my 2nd day of full-time work, I think I can get use to this.

#65 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 7:45 pm

#37 AA Dog Sponsor on 01.07.22 at 6:07 pm
That dog has a drinking problem. The bottle is already empty and he still won’t let go of it.
—————
I always chuckle when people say: “He/she has a drinking problem”.
I reply: no, he/she is drinking just fine.

#66 TurnerNation on 01.07.22 at 7:52 pm

–Just another day in a Former First World Country being wound down. Did ya notice in the ‘news’ today things intensified? Because: every human must be put into the Blockchain (QR Code) for a Cert. Of. V. I.D.
Every adult. Every child. Why the governments, corporations, school boards are changing the rules by the day. Science is different in Kanada:

.”Chart shows school closures (all levels) in the world due to COVID as of today. Canada in great company with Ukraine, Philippines, India (very controversial there as schools have essentially been shut for almost two years) and Krygystan. No major western country on this list.”
https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/1478943977550274561

.Lachine Hospital ER to stay closed overnight due to COVID-19 outbreaks, lack of staff (montreal.ctvnews.ca)

.Some federal prisons in Québec ‘very close’ to staff shortages: guards’ union (cbc.ca)

.Ontario introduces grant for small businesses forced to close amid COVID-19 restrictions(toronto.ctvnews.ca)


— How to get on the No Fly List in Kanada. a) Be an international terrorist. b) be a young person who dared having some fun.

.Air Canada blocks 19 passengers from Sunwing plane party; organizer decries ‘presumptions’ by airline (montreal.ctvnews.ca)


— Food Supply/China! Yep control over our feeding

Mike Milliam, President of the Private Motor Truck Council of Canada
“70% of the 700 billion in trade between Canada and the US is moved by truck. This will have a dramatic effect on supplies and services reaching their destination and getting in the hands of those who need them”
http://www.pmtc.ca/CMFiles/CanadianandUSLandBorderVaccinationMandatesForEssentialWorkers.pdf

#67 Braggadocious on 01.07.22 at 7:59 pm

#14 Southpark Sammy on 01.07.22 at 4:14 pm
Gee, wonder why? Can it be inflation is out of control and wages haven’t really went up? Who knew if you run out of cash to survive you run up your credit cards and make the banks even more wealthy? AMAZING.
Yet the 1% who control the banks don’t have a care in the world as they control the FED, banks and politicians and the 99% of us sit here like lemmings and just watch….Nice system if you can create it…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shocking-consumer-credit-numbers-us-credit-card-debt-soars-most-record-savings-long-gone

—-

Ever think to yourself that pitchforks were about to come out against us 1% pre-2020 and this pandemic thankfully ensured we are safe for another decade?

Got the 99% locked down. Divided. Crabs pulling each other down into the buckets, while we sit and watch our investments mushroom!

Plus…I’ve had zero issues travelling. Oh sure a minor inconvenience here or there…nothing a few dollars didn’t solve. Way less riff ruff to deal with everywhere. They all all defeated and compliant and most importantly muffled or silent.

Space everywhere and finally something I’ve always wanted – for people to get out of my way! When it appears they won’t I clear my throat with a soft caught – they jump out of the way like I’m a bus.

1% is where it’s at. I hope this pandemic never ends!

There. I said it.

#68 Oakville Rocks! on 01.07.22 at 8:13 pm

I always thought tattoos were just for sailors and then I saw Victor Davis & Alex Baumann’s maple leaf over their heart tattoo and thought it was the coolest thing ever.

Personally, no tattoos yet but who needs tattoos when you have scars.

Other people’s tattoos, none of my business, live & let live and they are probably the least offensive form of personal style.

I would rather endure a 50 minute subway ride with a car full of tattooed realtors prattling on about their latest deal than have to spend another minute at a traffic light next to some dope with the windows down blasting Cardi B’s WAP. Whatever happened to subtlety?

#69 All Mine! on 01.07.22 at 8:33 pm

#53 willworkforpickles on 01.06.22 at 5:54 pm
#5 Sublime

“There is something beautiful about boomers selling out their homes at interest-rate driven price peaks to millennials, which will be followed by boomers investing their cash in conservative high-yield investments as rates rise while millennials flounder in debt.

Stick it to millennials on the way down and on the way up. Beautiful.”

……………………………………………………………………………………………………

When millenials start losing their houses possibly by the millions across NA in the not too distant future, and are left with unbearable taxes, bills and the costs of everything… blame on everything that’s wrong in life and society will fall heavily on the boomers.
It will be the young taking it out on the old then.

If you are a boomer, it might be wise to move to a rural gated community.
Or you could remain in the city under siege. But you may need to then invest heavily in solid steel doors and bullet proof glass if your staying.

—–

Millenials have figured out very early on that Covid is but a minor inconvenience to them. They can read the death chart stats even with just a Grade 8 education.

Where as the Boomers…well…it’s a bit more serious to them, isn’t it? They make up the bulk of the death stats. Which is why they are locking down all the young.

I agree, the Boomers might have to be wise to move to a rural gated community because the Millennials have the necessary weapon on their side in this Covid war – youth.

Boomers scared silly. Boomers make the rules.

Boomers must remember, you can’t take it with you to the grave. And when Boomers die Millennials will take it all. Unless it was all left in the will to the cat. The house, the car, the portfolio, the collection of booze and the loafers and Nana’s soaked mattress.

Remember, you can’t spell Millennial with ALL MINE!

#70 Diamond Dog on 01.07.22 at 8:40 pm

When we look at what insiders are doing, insider selling is up 30% yoy and 79% above the 10 year average. The Elon Musk’s and Jeff Bezos of the world are dumping their stock. Why wouldn’t they, look at their nosebleed valuations and contrast with future risk/reward.

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/2021/12/16/joan-lappin-record-insider-selling-may-warning-investors/8906012002/

First come the highest risk assets like Crypto and small caps. Then the high flying techs that earn no money. Next comes the NASDAQ, then the DOW. As retail runs out of money to invest from losses, there’s no more juice left and down she goes. The trigger to all this?

Rising rates. As rates rise, disposable income falls and assets like real estate drop in value. What contributed to a wealth effect now contributes to a poverty effect and the billionaires with more intel than us plebs, are reacting in kind by dumping stock.

Where else can rates go but higher, with inflation on a romp. Let’s talk about where it comes from. Some brilliant minds will say inflation comes entirely from the Fed and that’s true to a point because the Fed has the power within some environments to do so. With this present period of inflation, the largess of inflation has most definitely come from the Fed. All one needs to do is look at the money supply and why stock and bond markets are so bloated with real estate above pre GFC levels and monetary policy overheating economics, to know who is to blame.

There are other factors unrelated to the Fed concerning inflation however, it’s not entirely about the Fed. Commodities can run short leading to inflation. During the pandemic, commodity exploration ground to a halt. This took out excess supply and led to higher commodity prices in energy and metals. A bug did this, not the Fed.

The world is in the throws of a La Nina leading to scorched earth amplified by climate change causing crop failures and floods the world over creating shortage of agricultural supply. Human pollution and weather cycles did that. Prices are poised to stay strong until La Nina runs it’s course. These are examples of inflationary forces beyond the control of the Fed.

Same goes for government deficit spending and government stimulus leaving the Fed reactionary to government choices of the day. Boomers are retiring early as a consequence of wealth and health and a tight job market is driving up wages, also beyond the control of the Fed.

When we look at where inflation is coming from outside of the Fed… wages, climate, labor, demographics, the effects of a pandemic removed from monetary policy, public deficit spending, we see that inflation is about more than monetary policy but monetary policy is still the largest overall contributing factor.

I bring all this up because for decades the Fed has being saying “we are targeting inflation above 2% and we’d like to see full employment”. Not hard to forget, they drilled it into our brains. Full employment comes along and the Fed rate remains near zero. Then 6.8% inflation comes along and the Fed says “we had no idea inflation would run this high”.

The money supply swelled by 50% over 18 months and they had no idea. Crops were scorched across the world and still, no idea. Job markets tight as a drum jacking income, supply chain disruptions, bubbles blowing up everywhere and the Fed still had no idea.

Then the reaction by the Fed with inflation hitting 6.8%, “maybe we’ll look at tapering a little sooner, maybe in March”. Does anyone believe the Fed when they say they had no idea inflation would run this high? It’s their job to know!

Why is Biden so unpopular with the economy right now? He kept Powell for one. Let’s remind, Powell led the Fed through an ongoing scandal among his years there:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-timeline-of-the-federal-reserves-trading-scandal-104415556.html

This scandal involves Clarida who runs the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs as Vice Chair Clarida, Chair and Oversight Governor for R&S, MA, and IF. This is a big deal as he’s vice chair of the Fed:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm

Clarida was in a position to steer the narrative of policy decisions within the Fed that would directly enrich himself and that’s exactly what he did. Again, look at his position within the Fed.

And now, with an everything bubble on everyone’s hands and the systemic risk this poses, North America could well be headed for another dot.com styled meltdown or certainly the risk of it, we are now forced to ask, potentially because of the greed of just one man.

#71 baloney Sandwitch on 01.07.22 at 8:45 pm

Canada must be doing OK – Covid deaths are 1/3rd of the US adjusted for population.

#72 DON on 01.07.22 at 8:58 pm

Good post JAG and good question on the turning point.

Assumption: A larger percentage of those ready and able to sell are the vaxxed older crowd. And there are more unvaxxed folks in the younger buyers pool.

Are the potential vaxxed sellers feeling confident enough in letting the unvaxxed (heavily tatted) persons walking through their houses, hmmm?!

Owners could just be waiting out the worst of the worst weather. All of BC is still covered in melting snow…even Victoria. We all got a fresh dump off snow. Two weeks of snow on the ground in the Lower Mainland and most parts of Van Isle is rare. Freezing rain is next…

#73 Satori on 01.07.22 at 9:20 pm

#69 All Mine! on 01.07.22 at 8:33 pm

And when Boomers die Millennials will take it all.
______________________________________

LOL!! You skipped a generation.

Baby Booms have Gen X kids….And Any Boomer who had a millenial kid, definitely has a reverse mortgage! They need the extra money to support them and their partners.

#74 Nonplused on 01.07.22 at 9:28 pm

Hmmm….

https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-absolute-and-percentage-terms-consumer-credit-jumps-the-most-ever

Seems this recovery is less and less what it seems. And it is not just the government blowing their minds out on debt.

#75 Dog-faced Pony Soldier on 01.07.22 at 9:40 pm

Has anyone else noticed that the new Bobblehead of Trudeau with the beard looks more like Garth Turner than it does Trudeau ?

#76 DON on 01.07.22 at 9:42 pm

@Dr V

Family member decided not to list as prices were high all over and they might get into a bidding war. They got their current house for a quarter of current assessment. Not ready to rent and they already have a good house they have spent time fixing over the years. Another factor is seniors getting reverse mortgages for up to 55% of the house values and what about the growing debt from Helocs.

Yikes!

@Diamond Dog

The cascading effect from the perfect storm. All starting with the lonely hearted…I mean over indebted. How long can folks tread water. Money problems can strain a marriage.

#77 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.07.22 at 9:45 pm

#33 Faron on 01.07.22 at 5:42 pm
#184 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 2:27 pm

Nah, not me. You have me confused for one of the other Americans here. You know, the one who loves Tesla and takes gov’t handouts and may or may not have adjusted his businesses balance sheet in a manner that allowed him to buy TSLA when the CEWS rolled in. Maybe you know him?

—–

Give me a break, isn’t your entire source of income gov’t handouts?

#78 Gone Girl on 01.07.22 at 9:47 pm

I think Tiff will raise only if Trudeau can bank some sharp tax increases to cover his big spending plans. Once addicted to free money, votes can only come through pandering and direct bribery. Without a big tax increase Trudeau can’t spend. It’s simple.

And hey Garth, you’re getting lapped by Suze Orman who’s crapping on the 60/40 and going all in on stocks as “the only asset class that can beat inflation”.

I love this battle set up, two antiques at loggerheads. Let the lip-slapping begin.

#79 Nonplused on 01.07.22 at 9:52 pm

#39 Gravy Train on 01.07.22 at 6:14 pm

You are reading the same definitions as me but coming to different conclusions.

My whole point is that the “labor force” as you are using it (employed plus unemployed) is a different construct than the working age population. Who counts as “unemployed” is arbitrary in my opinion. I consider the total number of employed divided by the total number of working age people to be a better stat, although it would take some getting use to because it is not always 4.1%, it is much higher. (Yes I know it would be 1-E/WA.)

My whole point is that the “unemployed” number is a sausage and how they decide what goes in it is arbitrary. The total employed and the total working age population are 2 numbers you can’t mess with.

#80 IHCTD9 on 01.07.22 at 10:09 pm

#40 Sail Away on 01.07.22 at 6:16 pm
#28 the Jaguar on 01.07.22 at 5:29 pm

full disclosure: Home Dept, Lowes, and essentially any hardware store that sells seasonal items is a magnet for the Jaguar. I love clever little lawn sprinklers more than IHCTD9 loves tractors.

——–

IH does indeed love his cumbersome and unwieldy chunks of non-working turn-of-the-century mechanical statuary that can be restored with a relatively insignificant outlay of 164,000 man-hours and a bare-bones fabrication shop, including but not limited to: welders, lathes, sanders, polishers, hoists, air tools, hand tools, breaker bars, pry bars, micrometers, multiple hammers, as well as a good working knowledge of all mechanical history since the dawn of time.
——-

Sounds about right, just add a vertical boring mill and a cutting torch to the equipment list. Sadly, I culled the herd by 33% this fall, and that will rise to 66% in the spring. That’ll leave just one lonely track layer out in the drive shed with only a mower for company. As it turned out, one bulldozer is enough.

#81 IHCTD9 on 01.07.22 at 10:19 pm

#65 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 7:45 pm
#37 AA Dog Sponsor on 01.07.22 at 6:07 pm
That dog has a drinking problem. The bottle is already empty and he still won’t let go of it.
—————

I always chuckle when people say: “He/she has a drinking problem”.
I reply: no, he/she is drinking just fine.
——-

“People say I got a drinkin’ problem, but I got no problem drinkin’ at all”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7f6HiQ2LuU

#82 THE DANDADA on 01.07.22 at 10:38 pm

Does anyone believe that the jobs numbers mean anything at the moment? Until COVID goes away and everyone returns to work, these numbers are meaningless. We still have a Potemkin economy. The numbers are still a facade.

GET VAXED or be the PROBLEM!

#83 45north on 01.07.22 at 10:52 pm

BOC The Bank of Canada can’t hike more than the Fed can they?

no and if they do you can sue them

#84 Faron on 01.07.22 at 11:06 pm

#41 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:19 pm

I defer to Ustabe. I will wear skis anywhere anyone else will snowshoe. Tight brush is the only place skis lose out, but the glide elsewhere is worth the tradeoff.

So, not an expert on snowshoes although recognize that they are the right choice for many people in many situations.

General take is:

–snow here is denser, so you need less shoe on avg. Make sure recommendeded sizes are for coastal snow. If you plan to take them inland, size to the lighter snow.
–your feet will get wet, so goretex socks would be helpful plus gaiters.
–quality gear is essential in winter. You don’t want to posthole home if a plastic strap breaks.

Happy to share my eletist view on skis vs snowshoes.

I have time on my hands because I broke two ribs last night.

#85 IHCTD9 on 01.07.22 at 11:12 pm

#76 DON on 01.07.22 at 9:42 pm

Family member decided not to list as prices were high all over and they might get into a bidding war. They got their current house for a quarter of current assessment. Not ready to rent and they already have a good house they have spent time fixing over the years.

————-

I’ll bet this is a common sentiment. Personally, you’d have to drive me out of my current place with a bull whip. No way would I willingly wade into the southern Ontario RE sh!it-show. Don’t have to. Half the homes on my local MLS are over a million, not even one worth looking at for the cost.

#86 Happenstance on 01.07.22 at 11:16 pm

#84 Faron on 01.07.22 at 11:06 pm
#41 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:19 pm

I have time on my hands because I broke two ribs last night

_____________

Uh, that explains the foul mood and the foul mouth today!
Do tell what supid thing you were doing!

#87 Garth's Son Drake on 01.07.22 at 11:17 pm

…which is why the market is not happy. No stimulus, market freaks out.

Wait until the inflation kicks it into high gear once Omicron fades in a few months. You think they are behind the curve now? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

5-rate hikes? Wow! Let’s see if it happens.

Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze should not be representing generation squeeze when he owns a 2M Vancouver home.

The guy represents the government. More taxes, really?

Fix supply! Either whack anyone with more than one home to be used for living in and don’t allow them to be sold to anyone other than resident of Canada.

Rents have gone mental. Am I am not a renter.

We have built more than enough homes for every single Canadian resident. The problem is hoarding and greed.

And it ain’t going to change.

#88 Penny Henny on 01.07.22 at 11:57 pm

Novak Djokovic or Novax Djokovic. Hmmmm

#89 Penny Henny on 01.08.22 at 12:02 am

#48 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:32 pm
175 facts 176 DON – thanks for your input. I can only speculate on the reason(s) for this apparent high vacancy at a time of extreme prices.

If the vacant home number is correct, or close to it as an indicator of truly unused units, the “crisis” may only be
market driven, and prices have simply gotten ahead of themselves. The shortage of listings may only indicate a combination of bewilderment and apprehension of sellers not being able to buy back in.

Perhaps a little rate hike will fix it all.
////////////

Dr V, you have what many don’t don’t. An open and rational mind.
Keep on keepin on.

#90 Great Rant Bro on 01.08.22 at 12:15 am

#30 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.07.22 at 5:34 pm
#20 mj on 01.07.22 at 4:28 pm
who is in better shape, Canada or the U.S.
—————
I don’t by into the mantra “Never bet against America”.
In the 80s and early 90s, the Mantra in the IT departments was “No one got ever fired for buying IBM”.
So they bought IBM personal computers and Microsoft DOS, which was preinstalled on the computers.
Even though most experts said that the computers and Microsoft DOS were inferior products to what was out there.
Apple Computers were considered not fit for serious business applications.
And Bill Gates said “Why would anyone need more than 640 Kb of memory?”
Some genius.

==============================================

Apple Computer: #1 company in the world by market cap

Microsoft: #2 company in the world by market cap

Bill Gates ( founder of…uh…Microsoft): 4th richest man on the planet

Three of the top 4 wealthiest men in the world (Musk, Bezos & Gates) – American

Keep sneering at “Amis”, makes you look smart.

#91 Midnight's on 01.08.22 at 12:20 am

A perfect gift for him or her, lmbo.

https://youtu.be/yj5J-yzLLqA

#92 Sam Waxman on 01.08.22 at 1:42 am

It’s too bad that if the government creates more taxes to try and curb the RE market it will come at the expense of renters trying to buy their own place.

#93 under the radar on 01.08.22 at 5:59 am

So much of the economy is predicated on the real estate merry go round and bank lending that despite rising rates the show must go on. Economy is apparently on fire, so rates will rise, prices on everything up, and the wage /price inflation cycle is off and running. If CB’s get it wrong, watch for a 7% prime rate. Reminds me of the late 1980’s.

#94 Gravy Train on 01.08.22 at 7:22 am

#79 Nonplused on 01.07.22 at 9:52 pm
“You are reading the same definitions as me but coming to different conclusions.” You aren’t reading the definitions—or at least you’re not understanding them—and you’re making up your own, like ‘working age population.’

“My whole point is that the ‘labour force’ as you are using it (employed plus unemployed) is a different construct than the working age population.” Of course it is. ‘Working age population’ is not a concept in economics. You won’t find it in any economics textbook or statistic published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics. You just made it up. It’s meaningless and easily refutable.

“Who counts as ‘unemployed’ is arbitrary in my opinion.” It’s really very simple. If you’re jobless, looking for a job, and available for work, you’re unemployed. See the link below to see who is counted as unemployed.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed

“I consider the total number of employed divided by the total number of working age people to be a better stat, […]” Your idea of ‘working age people’ makes no sense. I can be age 89 with a job, or I can be retired or going to school at age 56. If I’m jobless at age 45, looking for a job, and available to work, I’m unemployed, but, if I’m hooked up to an IV drip in the hospital, I’m not in the labour force. Get it now? No? I give up! :P

“[…] although it would take some getting use to because it is not always 4.1%, it is much higher. (Yes I know it would be 1-E/WA.)” There are six alternative measures of unemployment. Here are the latest figures:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

“My whole point is that the ‘unemployed’ number is a sausage and how they decide what goes in it is arbitrary. The total employed and the total working age population are [two] numbers you can’t mess with. No, your misguided idea of ‘working age population’ is true sausage-making. You won’t find it in any economics textbook. As a final admonition: read more, and bloviate less! And use your cabeza! :P

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 7:44 am

@#168 Dumb Tats

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ba/ac/15/baac156db9046f7802e5805a36a7a064.jpg

“Thing is, anyone trying to copy this is going to be just lame. It’s one of those things were only 1 per humanity is allowed, and that’s brilliant. Next guy who did it…LAME!”

+++
Exactly.
There in lies the crux of most tats.
People “see” an awesome tat on someone else and have a copy tattoo’ed on their body….and once they have “Crossed the Rubicon” with that first tat….

They see another awesome tat, then another, and another….
Totally awesome dude.
Your skin becomes a banner for other people’s awesome tats and a declaration of your own unoriginality.

Tattoo
How unoriginal.
How lame.
How sad.

Haiku over.

#96 millmech on 01.08.22 at 7:51 am

#41 Dr V
MSR Lightning Explore at MEC

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 8:04 am

@#86 Happenstance
“Do tell what stupid thing you were doing!”

+++

I hear Tiling in Bathrooms can be pretty dangerous.
Typing rebuttals is a close second.

#98 Wrk.dover on 01.08.22 at 8:49 am

#60 Ustabe on 01.07.22 at 7:20 pm
@ #41 Dr V on 01.07.22 at 6:19 pm

I’m not Faron but I have done many miles over many years on snowshoes.

There is a far longer explanation but basically First Nations that lived on the Prairies used snowshoes that were quite a bit different that those of the Boreal forest tribes.
________________________________________

I knew this guy a very long time ago. He became a bush pilot in the 70’s and researched the daylights out of snow shoes north of 60 in remote villages, talking to the elders.

Apparently he know more about the subject than Sail Away knows about anything at all!

http://billmackowskitraditionals.com/

#99 KLNR on 01.08.22 at 9:02 am

@#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.08.22 at 7:44 am
@#168 Dumb Tats

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ba/ac/15/baac156db9046f7802e5805a36a7a064.jpg

“Thing is, anyone trying to copy this is going to be just lame. It’s one of those things were only 1 per humanity is allowed, and that’s brilliant. Next guy who did it…LAME!”

+++
Exactly.
There in lies the crux of most tats.
People “see” an awesome tat on someone else and have a copy tattoo’ed on their body….and once they have “Crossed the Rubicon” with that first tat….

They see another awesome tat, then another, and another….
Totally awesome dude.
Your skin becomes a banner for other people’s awesome tats and a declaration of your own unoriginality.

Tattoo
How unoriginal.
How lame.
How sad.

Haiku over.

what made you folks so bitter?

#100 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 9:41 am

#13 Oakville Rocks! on 01.07.22 at 4:07 pm
Guelph – small hick city? Surely you jest Garth.

On this dog friendly blog, how can you talk about Guelph and not mention that Guelph is the home of Ontario’s agriculture/veterinary/animal husbandry school. Lots of cutting edge farming / livestock research is done here. The Yukon Gold potato was invented here.
****
Sorry. Yukon Gold was invented in PEI (Prince Edward Island in case you don’t recognize the acronym).

#101 Ballingsford on 01.08.22 at 9:45 am

#37 AA Dog Sponsor on 01.07.22 at 6:07 pm
That dog has a drinking problem. The bottle is already empty and he still won’t let go of it.
*****
I think he’s taking the bottle back to get the deposit and use it towards getting another. Dogs are good with their money. That’s why they are all rich.

#102 Sail Away on 01.08.22 at 10:01 am

@ Faron

Ouch. Broken ribs are the worst. I do not envy your next five weeks. From a fall?

#103 ts on 01.08.22 at 10:27 am

#56 ValleyBoy

“Raising rates works well for curbing inflation. Just look at turkey, and Venezuela.”

—————————————————————–
Actually…….

“Turkey has cut interest rates again, despite red hot inflation and a worsening currency crisis. … In a statement, Turkey’s bank compared its decision to those of other major Western central banks.”

#104 Froggy2 on 01.08.22 at 3:15 pm

#3 if u think history involves
10 years you have alot to learn
It feels like history is repeating its
self with intrest rates at 5 -6 percent
in 2024 let me know what housing does then

#105 I'mshort_corpdebt on 01.08.22 at 9:01 pm

The Canadian economy has been for the past 30yrs mostly reliant on the FIRe economic model. F8nance, Insurance and RE. The combination of low interests, low dollar and the multitude of insurance products has given foreign money a playground for the uber rich including the 1% which own most assets. The other 90% of Canadians not so much, massive debt and Helocs to assure real wealth is never achieved.

Welcome to the Canadian Aristocracy. Btw, did anyone ever inquire why municipal bonds in Canada are never made available to the Canadian public at auction? Ask the queen of England…