On the edge

In early spring, 2020, Covid hit. As we now know, infections were relatively modest but the disease scary. Governments freaked. Restrictions, lockdowns and quarantines were put in place. Unemployment in Canada spiked to 14%, the GDP went negative and equity markets crashed into bear territory in a frenzy never seen before.

The quickest bruin ever. Stocks took a 35% haircut in merely a few weeks. At the very worst of Covid, infections in India topped 440,000 in a day. Trump was voted out in no small part because three hundred thousand Americans were being infected every 24 hours.

People with balanced portfolios were shielded from much of the bloodshed. Investors with gonads of lithium waded into the sea of guts and plunked out bargains. In a few months Mr.Market decided that all pandemics are temporary, there would be vaccines, and it was time to roar back to life.

Man, what a ride that was.

Well, look at now. Yesterday new infections in the United States alone exceeded one million in a single day. Officially. In real terms, it might have been 5 million. Or more. Testing facilities are whacked. Lots of people with symptoms have been self-testing and not reporting the results. The pandemic is deeper, wider and more unstoppable than ever. And this is despite the fact 77% of all Canadians have had (at least) two vaccinations, and 62% of Americans are fully vaxed. These days there’s also a mad scramble to jab the kiddies and boost the wrinklies. In fact everyone over 18 (in most places) is now being urged to go for that third shot.

Ontario shuts down again tomorrow. RTW has been eaten by Omicron. Rioters in Quebec are opposing the curfew. Government officials are being infected. And Dog help anybody trying to run a restaurant.

In short, we have not seen anything on this scale in our lifetimes. Schools shut. Parents vexed. Employers stymied. Entrepreneurs vivisected.

And the equity markets keep getting juiced.

So 2022 opened with all-time record intraday highs in New York for both the Dow and the S&P 500. Over the last 12 months, the Dow and Bay Street are up 22% while the S&P has gained 29%. What’s equally important right now is that volatility has dropped (the VIX is back at 17 – nice and calm), while bond yields have increased (showing confidence in future economic growth).

Oil’s back into the upper seventy-buck range, and that telegraphs a belief in a strong and sustained recovery. More global growth = higher commodity demand = rising prices. Oil and energy stocks are doing well. Banks, too, since investors expect CBs to carry through with their plans to hike interest rates in 2022. Plus, a better economy means more jobs, more consumer spending and fatter bank earnings.

Now, look at resignations. Over 4.5 million of them last month in the US. People don’t walk away from salaries, wages and benefits when they lack confidence or fear what’s coming. Meanwhile there are 11 million job openings in the States at the moment – a record. In fact for every unemployed soul to the south (six million), 1.5 jobs go begging.

Source: New York Times

What are markets trying to tell us? What is human behaviour inkling at? Why are we at this stage when a million Americans a day are being infected and kids in Timiskaming can’t go to class?

Only one conclusion. Omicron sucks and politicians have lost the battle to the virus. Eateries and airlines are in trouble. Governments are out of bullets. But this is not 2020. Not even close. 2022 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion that is somewhat everywhere, somewhat all of the time and kills an acceptable number of humans.

The day Pfizer announced the vax was the day we turned.

True, trading has barely started this year. And hopium can be addictive. It’s only early January. But, dammit, the sap is coming.

About the picture: “Greetings from Manitoba Whale. Love the blog and have been following it for years. Here is 5 month old  Millie, who is a friendly, but busy Australian Shepherd pup that loves watching the birds outside the window. Always willing to learn something new, she has been a great distraction as Covid drags on.”

166 comments ↓

#1 BlogDog123 on 01.04.22 at 3:42 pm

Pols like Trudeau and Ford will see this Omicron as an opportunity to spend, spend, spend with impunity…

I bet Trudeau tires of his job and makes an exit late 2022 leaving CF to carry on.

#2 tbone on 01.04.22 at 3:49 pm

Nice day to own bank stocks .
Got topped up with a 3rd shot of Pfizer yesterday .
Im good.

#3 Daveyboy on 01.04.22 at 3:53 pm

I am in phoenix and no one cares about covid. No mask and no restrictions pretty much everywhere. I have personally seen, my families neighbors kids play outside with the other children while infected with it. Its wild. Go get your Boosters!

#4 KLNR on 01.04.22 at 3:54 pm

nice pup.
hope you have the energy she’ll demand.
maybe get some sheep she can herd.

#5 TurnerNation on 01.04.22 at 4:01 pm

Why “Non Essential”/”Essential” has been pushed non-stop for 2 years. Guess who will be given the UBI. -War on Small Business. Do we also decend into socialism?

https://www.restaurantscanada.org/industry-news/statement-in-response-to-ontarios-latest-restrictions/
“The data that we have seen show that restaurants are NOT the problem, yet we continue to be singled out and have never been allowed to meet with the Chief Medical Officer or the Ministry of Health to discuss data and strategies for restaurants, but have been turned down at every turn.
Restaurants Canada is asking the provincial government to take these actions to support our industry:

.Dan Kelly @CFIB The Ontario Finance Minister’s Office contacted us to say that a small business grant program is in the works. This would be a much-needed relief for small businesses and can’t come soon enough.


— So…when they finally let us out of our cages – this lockdown will last for months – what will be the new restrictions? Look to EU. Yep this will further destroy small business. Permanent electronic lockdown is here – QR Code.

.PeterSweden @PeterSweden7 In the German city of Hamburg, the double vaccinated will no longer be allowed to eat in restaurants without also taking tests. Only the triple vaccinated will be allowed without having to take tests.
.Mr. P @Fnmthots Replying to @PeterSweden7 Same in Luxembourg. Already in place


— Gee the more people get ‘treatment’ the sicker they get. How can this be.

.2 GTA hospitals declare ‘code orange’ as Ontario prepares to tighten public health measures (cbc.ca)

Ahem:
.https://globalnews.ca › news › hamilton-health-sciences…Jul 5, 2021 — Two Ontario field hospitals in Hamilton and Toronto are shutting down as per directions from the Ministry of Health due to declining …

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 4:03 pm

Well an Australian Sheep dog that enjoys bird watching will have endless fun when the skeeters start a swarming….

#7 Cowtown Cowboy on 01.04.22 at 4:05 pm

Just a little anecdotal info on lease vs buy.

I just sold my ’18 Tundra for about $19k more then I owed on it this fall, the plan is to keep the ’21 for ever, buy it out and see if I can put over 500k km on it.
We’ll roll over the other daily driver every 3 yrs and can usually make a little on it as well as it is a high demand vehicle. When we get close to retirement, probably get a Lexus that should get us through the first 15-20yrs of retirement without much issue.

My advice is to get vehicles with high quality ratings/resale value..you can’t go too wrong.

#8 Brian on 01.04.22 at 4:11 pm

The Cameroon Mutation – Is This the Next COVID-19 Vaccine Escapee?

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-cameroon-mutation-is-this-next.html

#9 Søren Angst on 01.04.22 at 4:15 pm

” But, dammit, the sap is coming.”

You better be right. I’m counting on it.

——————

If depressed embrace Kierkegaard Angst – you too Garth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9JCwkx558o

For those that refuse to realize it can only get better, here then, DEPRESS yourselves further:

IHU

https://www.firstpost.com/health/france-detects-new-covid-19-variant-ihu-more-infectious-than-omicron-all-we-know-about-it-10256521.html

– Søren

#10 Chris L. on 01.04.22 at 4:16 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#11 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 01.04.22 at 4:18 pm

Still lots of room to run for the Canadian oil stocks.
More gains on the way.

I’m buying OVV.TO (formerly Encana)

And Cenovus CVE.TO

You’re welcome. Happy New Year!

#12 Cowtown Cowboy on 01.04.22 at 4:21 pm

…once the Lexus craps out, i should have enough saved for the Convertible 911 Turbo…I’ll be 80 but so what :-)

#13 James on 01.04.22 at 4:23 pm

My wife is a nurse downtown and she said this isn’t your fake news story. We are now almost at 100% capacity with covid. Oh and the best part the hospital staff are now infected and can only do minimal interface with patients.
WTF?

#14 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.04.22 at 4:23 pm

A few more months of uppity up then…..

LOOK-OUT!!

Don’t get greedy.

#15 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 4:24 pm

There’s no hope anymore for the indebted beyond their means. Not nations nor individuals.

#16 I’m stupid on 01.04.22 at 4:24 pm

You reap what you sow.

Has anyone thought about the reason pcr test have been limited to at risk groups?

I think that giving pcr tests to anyone will increase the hospital numbers. I see 2 types of people, house cats and ally cats. The ones that had to face the pandemic from day 1 outside their homes and the ones that had the luxury of hiding indoors. I think the house cats would flock to the hospital if they receive a positive pcr test not because they need medical attention but because the fear and anxiety of COVID will manifest into more severe illnesses than actually exist. The majority of omicron hospital cases will be treat and release but an attending physician can’t send you home if you’re saying you’re having difficulty breathing. Anxiety also causes difficulty breathing but it still takes time and resources to get through 1000s of scared people.

The government and media scared the crap out of everyone and how they have a society of cowards.

#17 uncle dave on 01.04.22 at 4:26 pm

Another upbeat read that sure beats watching CityPanic 24.

#18 XGRO and chill on 01.04.22 at 4:27 pm

The people I know who express worry about Covid are only worried about long covid. They know their vaccinations will protect them massively from a serious case. They are more worried about losing lung function, their sense of smell, etc. That’s the fear now. Fear of not being able to smell stuff. Of not being able to run a 5k. No longer of death.

#19 Penny Henny on 01.04.22 at 4:29 pm

Don’t forget to top up your TFSA

#20 Penny Henny on 01.04.22 at 4:29 pm

Is Millie a mini?

#21 Island Girl's Dad on 01.04.22 at 4:30 pm

I will feel a little better when we find out that Omicron hasn’t taken advantage of it’s super contagiousness to spawn a new variant that is both more contagious and more deadly. I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I don’t think we are out of the woods yet.

#22 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.04.22 at 4:39 pm

WALKING DOWN MEMORY LANE.
Dog on the ledge, is he going to fall? Who knows? However you really don’t need a crystal ball or the north star to predict the direction the economy will be heading for in 2022. No sir. Take a walk down main street and pay attention to the business owners. They may have something to tell you about how 2022 is going to unfold. Walking down memory lane, much like walking past a grave yard, you will come across a number of “See Through Outlets” as in vacant storefronts, in addition to liquidation, going out of business, downsizing, bankrupt and retirement sales banners everywhere, even Stevie Wonder can read the writing on the wall for 2022. Despite the main stream media’s, incessant, hopes and dreams, business owners must deal with actual sales at levels more commonly associated with ongoing recessions rather than recoveries. Of course, like a broken record, this remains my argument over the last couple of years. But while the media keep touting the strength of the consumer, the reality is quite different. If such were indeed the case, there would be no need to inject billions of dollars in stimulus to keep individuals afloat. Rising inflation, surging labor costs and concerns over additional socialistic policies and mandates will continue to weigh on small business confidence. Business owners need stability within which to operate and a constructive environment to make long term commitments to employment and business development. When these concerns get coupled with weak growth in actual sales, you can understand caution. Looping back to the start, Talk to the actual people with “Boots On The Ground” meaning the small business owners, you will get a much truer reading as to the direction the economy is heading . Sleep tight my little beauties.

#23 Brian on 01.04.22 at 4:44 pm

They Said They Would Slow the Spread!

What’s remarkable right now is the undeniable arrival of Covid to a degree to which hardly anyone could have imagined all that time ago, when so many experts set out to deploy their fabulous new system for stopping the spread of a disease.

Imagine how much worse it would have been without vaccines. Think 1919. – Garth

#24 Shawn on 01.04.22 at 4:45 pm

Home sales in Calgary up 45 percent in December versus the prior year. Alberta is back even if office towers sit empty.

#25 yvr_lurker on 01.04.22 at 4:46 pm

We should all be THANKFUL that omicron is proving significantly milder than Delta for most of us. However, it has been a year of many surprises with this nasty replicating bug. We should all hope that no new variant emerges somewhere on our interconnected globe that has the virulence of Delta and an R of omicron. If this happens in the next year we are, frankly, toast. With how little protection they have in China even to omicron, if such a lethal variant emerges my money is that it will come once again from China. The CCP will have an impossible task of keeping omicron away from their 1.4 Billion, and the WHO will once again prove to be essentially useless in doing anything of value.

#26 Faron on 01.04.22 at 4:52 pm

Different year for markets. Not down, per se, but confronting the inflation and high rate realities in a reducing QE regime. Anyone want to wager that we see an equity correction before January is out? Sometime Jan 20th or later?

Not linked to the above, but Jan, 2021 probably marked the peak of a certain ilk of equities — profitless garbage. Be B+D and for the equity component hold stuff that is solidly profitable and flows cash like crazy.

Check out this guy’s portfolios; one that track profitless garbage and another that tracks strong corps that are well entrenched. Political commentary will be a crowd favourite around here as an added bonus.

He has a pet name for Tesla that some will enjoy.

https://twitter.com/JTSEO9

#27 JSS on 01.04.22 at 4:54 pm

was reminiscing today of the days when we gallantly walked the streets with no masks. Back in 2019.

wearing the mask will become as normal as wearing underwear

#28 Neo on 01.04.22 at 4:58 pm

It’s time to stop the hate. Stop the division. Stop the finger pointing. Stop the mandates. Stop the boosters and just get back to normal and live with this. We are not going to lockdown ourselves out of this. We are not going to vaccinate our way out of this. We are not going to mandate our way out of this.

Once mother nature decides to deploy the natural vaccine in the form of a benign variant that is highly transmissible but not as harmful (ie. Omicron hopefully) we will achieve the elusive herd immunity then lets just get back to normal. Enough is enough already.

Think about it this way. When the first wave started back early 2020 hospitalizations peaked at 1,017. By the end of this week that will be how many people fully vaccinated will be in the hospital. Christmas Day it was sitting at 189 but by Jan. 1st it was at 667. So at this point everything that has been done hasn’t gotten us out of this and we are still in the same place we started. Stop looking for government or pharmaceutical companies to fix this. They can’t.

#29 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 5:04 pm

#22 NOSTRADAMUS

Thumbs up to that post.

#30 Faron on 01.04.22 at 5:09 pm

#4 KLNR on 01.04.22 at 3:54 pm

maybe get some sheep she can herd.

Good tip. Contact Garth, Maybe he can spare some folks from steerage.

#31 bdwy on 01.04.22 at 5:09 pm

The US as all will be made aware of in several years time will become the great formidable force of yesterday.
Too soon to be debatable now, but not too far off either.
……………………………

like 200 years?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_R._Ford-class_aircraft_carrier

#32 bdwy on 01.04.22 at 5:13 pm

#27 JSS on 01.04.22 at 4:54 pm
was reminiscing today of the days when we gallantly walked the streets with no masks. Back in 2019.

————————
plenty of places you still can today. not so much in canada though.

some places nobody wears them. no problem.

#33 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 5:24 pm

“2022 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion that is somewhat everywhere, somewhat all of the time and kills an acceptable number of humans.”

——-

This will disappoint many self-appointed Guardians of the Galaxy.

#34 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 01.04.22 at 5:31 pm

New variant in France. It has 46 spikes compared with omicron which has 26 therefore it is twice as infectious. If we all get it does that mean finally herd immunity???

#35 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 5:32 pm

#26 Faron on 01.04.22 at 4:52 pm

He has a pet name for Tesla that some will enjoy.

——-

Give it up, F, you’ve been quite impressively wrong about Tesla ever since you started spouting off about it here 3 years ago.

In that time, TSLA has returned +2,550%. And I invited you to join me on the Tesla juggernaut way back then.

Embrace the failure. Excise the bitterness. Gather your buddies, pool your money, and buy a share. Catharsis awaits.

#36 T-Rev on 01.04.22 at 5:33 pm

As a double vaxxed, 40-ish, otherwise healthy dude who eats good and exercises regularly, I can tell you first hand how much the Omicron sucks, at least for some. Bedridden days 1-3 with exhaustion and fatigue, not to mention the worst sore throat x10 (it was like razors) of my life. Extreme throat pain still unable to swallow but able to function a bit otherwise days 4-5. Turned the corner day 6 and I could eat and drink again. By day 8 my throat was only mildly irritated, but here at day 11 I still don’t have more than about 4 hours of gas in me at a time, and god forbid I do anything that requires any cardiovascular output. Thankfully, I booked 3 weeks of holidays and I’ve got about a week left so it didn’t affect employment, but it put me on my a** in a way I never thought possible. Im grateful I got the “mild variant”, and that I’ve had two jabs. For the record, I don’t get sick often, and I’ve taken exactly three sick days in the last 20 years and can tell you the dates of each.

Double vaxxed wife got the worst head cold of her life but otherwise didn’t fare too badly. Unvaxxed elementary aged kids got sniffly and cranky, and have been a bit less energetic than usual, but they barely noticed it. Triple vaxxed in-laws, with significant health issue and in their early golden years were asymptomatic but positive.

I run a moderately sized division of an international company, and was on conference calls and e-mails today trying to stay on top of things a bit while on vacay, and it sounds like there’s some significant absenteeism in the ranks already. I told the crew to buckle down and prepare for a wild ride in January and to communicate relentlessly with staff and clients to ensure that we had as much foresight as possible into how this is going to affect our workforce and our scheduling priorities for the next month or two. We’ve managed to avoid workplace transmission so far for the most part, but I’m not sure that trend will hold in the face of this variant.

Say what you will about the way govt has handled this (incompetently and unimaginatively I believe, by failing to adapt our systems to offer expanded, Covid specific elasticity in the system so it doesn’t affect regular healthcare delivery as much), or the treatments available (I think it’s criminal that the vaccines, while clearly effective, are the only treatment so far widely available when it appears many poorer countries and the anti-vaxxed have found some cheap and readily available early intervention treatments that are at least partially effective at reducing severe disease and death, yet we’ve failed to make these known or available), but the vaccines do work and this is a serious disease, at least for some. I’m as skeptical as anyone about our religious like focus on vaccines both as the sole option to fight this and in the way we’re pushing mandates, but I encourage all to get their booster and go on living- the lockdowns aren’t right and we need to learn to live with this as the worst of the endemic flus and get back to normal. Life goes on.

#37 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 5:34 pm

#148 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 3:51 pm

The US will no longer dominate the future of high tech warfare.
China (among others) far outpace US R&D funding rates by nearly 10 times and will only pick up speed while US funding retreats
——

Where the heck are you getting this stuff? Of the *entire* global spending on military, the US accounted for 39% of the total. China is #2 at 13%, Russia #4 at 3.1%. India outspent Russia on military (that number will increase too, wanna guess why?). The US spent over 3X what number 2 – China did.

You need to get better sources, the US already has a prototype warship run by AI. No one is even close. The US is the ultimate global military superpower *by far* on every front except for their standing army. This absolutely will not change in your lifetime.

#38 Doug t on 01.04.22 at 5:41 pm

#28 neo

Yup – we are starting to act ridiculous – imagine how people will react when we are faced with something truly frightening

#39 Nonplused on 01.04.22 at 5:56 pm

Here are some charts for perspective:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate

(click on 10 or 25 years)

“In United States, the employment rate measures the number of people who have a job as a percentage of the working age population.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

(click on 10 or 25 years)

“The civilian labor force participation rate is the number of employed and unemployed but looking for a job as a percentage of the population aged 16 years and over.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

(again, 10 or 25 years)

“In the United States, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.”

What these charts show is that even though the trend in labor force participation has been in a long term downtrend, it is now as low as it’s ever been except for the covid panic. Since GDP is largely a measure of labor productivity, what this means is that the unemployment rate is near useless as a predictor of economic growth. Sure, of the people who are looking for work, not many of them can’t find it, but the fact remains a lot of people just aren’t looking. More people than ever. Whether these people are in school, retired, just plain wealthy, or happy to live on government programs is not contained in the data. But what is clear is that less people than ever in a long time are working as a percentage of the population. And the rebound from from the covid panic seems to have run out of steam. This is not good news for those wishing to predict robust GDP growth. More people than ever just aren’t working, no matter what the unemployment numbers say.

So what of all the unfilled jobs? Well, the first question to be answered is whether they are a mirage. You can post all the jobs you like, but if they pay less than the available government programs people aren’t going to sign up. Why would they?

We also have, more so than at anytime in history, a segment of the population for whom living off student loans is a way of life. These are the people advocating for student loan forgiveness in politics. We could go into arguments about whether it is fair to take tax money from the plumbers of the world and give it to the fine arts majors, but that would be a long discussion. Suffice it to say that the student loan forgiveness proposals would make even Marx blush. “From each according to his ability, to each according to his need” may be the socialist mantra, but these people aren’t contributing anything and are taking way more than they “need”. That’s all fine when it is part of an economic calculation and the student pays it back later, but free student loans?

Anyway, my point is the unemployment rate by itself is too convoluted of a number to use for forecasting in and of itself, because of the way it excludes so many potential workers simply for not having filled out an application recently or perhaps taking a sabbatical. The larger trend in the employment rate indicate we are no where near out of the woods. Thus, use caution when making forward economic growth forecasts. These trends could be long lasting instead of “transitory”.

#40 habitt on 01.04.22 at 5:57 pm

Love the optimism Garth, regarding omnicron. We will see.
Stay safe all and thanks to everyone for your posts. This MAY get real ugly.

#41 DC on 01.04.22 at 5:59 pm

was reminiscing today of the days when we gallantly walked the streets with no masks. Back in 2019.

————————
plenty of places you still can today. not so much in canada though.

some places nobody wears them. no problem.

—————————–

Too true bdwy. Son lives in southern England: he says there is virtually no discussion of it, masks are not mandatory, and the media does not ram it down people’s throats 24-7.

#42 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 6:03 pm

I remember the mid to late 80’s in extreme contrast to today.
Phones ringing off the hook from before 7.00am in the morning to past 10.00pm at night 7 days a week. Sales though the roof. Pockets stuffed with cash a hair from bursting at the seams. Trips daily to the bank and i remember days walking to the bank holding the tops of my pockets closed out of a real fear the bills stuffed in them well beyond the max would explode out all over the sidewalk as i made my way in the front door.
I was just a kid at the time and did business in that manner then.
People would show up and at times literally force the money into my hands before i even had my hand out.
I sold used auto parts in those days. And sold specialty accessories from California along with them.
I had two guys show up at the same time on many an occasion after the same part. Even with two showing up once both throwing their money on the counter for a part, with it being the last one out of California I’d be getting for awhile … they went crashing out the front door fists flying punching the hell out of each other over who would be the lucky buyer.
I’ve had people drop huge wads of cash to the ground standing in front of me as they couldn’t get it out of their hands and into mine fast enough.
Those fantastic days of fast money coming in like never before are long gone as i always knew they would be.
And true enough, they never did return but not anywhere near as good anyway.

Were the dirty 30’s ever as bad as the times were in now. With government support the answer is no…but i don’t collect government support.
Nonetheless , business now is just non existent for far too many.

#43 Concerned Citizen on 01.04.22 at 6:12 pm

“What are markets trying to tell us?”.

The markets are trying to tell us that since the pandemic started, the Fed and ECB have expanded their balance sheets by $9T (that’s trillion, not billion) dollars. That (digitally, mostly) printed money needs to go somewhere.

That’s the simple reason why valuations – in everything from stocks to homes – have gone to the Moon and beyond. The boomer central bankers have protected their assets and been perfectly happy – enthusiastic, even – in sacrificing young people and future generations to do so. Young people can live 10 to a basement so long as stocks never go down and home prices compound 10-20% per annum ad infinitum.

Who needs increased productivity when you can just print more money? Who needs to work when your home makes you more per year than your salary? It’s almost like the people in charge have no idea what they’re doing and/or are totally ignorant of history. This monetary policy is not without significant costs to society.

#44 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 6:16 pm

#31 bdwy

200 years you say.

6 to 6.5 years, but within this decade i say.

#45 Søren Angst on 01.04.22 at 6:17 pm

2022 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion…

2023 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion…

2024 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion…

————-

– Guardians of the Galaxy

(they came with bird guns + Hopium and saved the day)

#46 Diamond Dog on 01.04.22 at 6:19 pm

An excellent post, Garth.

Weird times. Of course, Omicron numbers are explained somewhat by a backlog and over counting (someone comes in for something else and tests positive) but numbers over the last week suggest at least a half mil a day. That’s still a lot!

The DOW keeps climbing. When we look at the yearly DJIA, what we see is that the DOW didn’t dip below 5% of it’s highs all year. Was it 67 daily all time records last year? A record in itself. 27% gains for the year. This is a chart readers will not often see. (take a picture)

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI

Why did that happen specifically? 2 big reasons, firstly the Fed. Won’t spend much time on the Fed, we know inflation, as Garth accurately labels “a currency killer” gives everyone a haircut, rich or poor. 27% gains on the markets, 20% gains in real estate, we can afford a 6.8% haircut right? Everyone except people who don’t own stocks and real estate of course.

Sure, we can go on about 2 currencies reminding each other that should one fall, the other picks up the pieces and continues it’s incumbent world reserve currency or replaces one. We know its the dollar or the Euro and what these 2 CB’s have by way of policy sets the tone for the western world.

We can speculate not only on what the Fed will do, but what it’s central bank competition will do in Europe. What will Europe do to fight inflation? What can happen to impact rates there this year? Will they raise rates forcing the U.S. to do the same?

But I wander. We know tomorrow rates are in a ditch even if inflation roars higher so, up she goes.

The 2nd reason the markets are swooning? The age of retail investors. Robin Hood. The hoodies changed the game from Gamestop to Jim Kramer’s “buy on the dip” $ media spam. “The trend is your friend” and “10x, 50x, to the moon” are prevalent themes throughout. Is this generation of culture loaded with gamblers? Look at crypto and you tell me. Of course they are.

Fundamentals don’t matter, truth doesn’t matter, get rich quick is all that matters now. Youth doesn’t invest in productivity, youth invests in where they can make the quickest buck. Get in and out quick before it goes broke! Who cares about the fallout, everyone one is doing it!

The pop in options from retail is something to behold. The entry level into the casino world of degenerate gambling is something else altogether not just in the world of crypto and options, we are seeing it unfold in indexes while Fed money is cheap and Omicron roars.

I’ve been recently researching just how corrupt Crypto really is. (It’s corrupt, boy is it corrupt) For example unbeknownst to some, the largest Crypto exchange in Canada (QuardrigaCX) closed up shop. The 30 year old hoodie who ran it died (mysteriously) and some $ 190 million was drained from everyone’s wallets. Key lesson, you as a digital wallet holder are not the only one with keys to your account (exchanges and cryptocurrency creators creators have them too. Do you trust them? Companies that require less than 3 pages of paperwork and no physical address?):

https://decrypt.co/5853/complete-story-quadrigacx-190-million

Needless to say, there is a plan to do a heavily garrulous comment on Crypto, giving it the links and justice it deserves but I wander. Point is, it isn’t about fundamentals anymore. Earnings, book, sales, yields, none of that matters, how can you pitch these valuations anyway, it’s about culture. (until Friday, we shall see)

I mean, check the video out below. It’s a nerd with 1.2 million followers (and they aren’t grey hairs) showing you how to 3x leverage your crypto within a day and lay your bets down for 42x gains (if they don’t go broke first). Do you see it yet?:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tAemoKKCpo

#47 Dogman01 on 01.04.22 at 6:19 pm

#128 Cici on 01.04.22 at 11:23 am
Québec government’s coming down hard on the non-vaccinated, who no longer have the right to buy pot or alcohol:
https://www.journaldequebec.com/2022/01/04/passeport-vaccinal-obligatoire-pour-entrer-a-la-saq-et-a-la-sqdc
While I appreciate what they are trying to do (get more people vaccinated to alleviate the hospitals so people who need surgeries and chemo can actually have access to treatment), I fear most of that crowd will just turn to the black market and become more reactionary. So, like the Americans, we can probably expect more political strife on our own turf in the coming months.

—————————————
“The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers”. – Princess Leia Organa

The more authoritarian the Woke\Establishment Axis becomes the more people will join the Rebel Alliance. The Individual Liberty over the Social Credit model of China.

“We see that as soon as we surrender the principle that the state should not interfere in any questions touching on the individual’s mode of life, we end by regulating and restricting the latter down to the smallest detail. The personal freedom of the individual is abrogated. He becomes a slave of the community, bound to obey the dictates of the majority.” – Ludwig von Mises

#48 Wrk.dover on 01.04.22 at 6:42 pm

Worldometers: USA serious critical 19786 patients.

Only uppa 23% ish since Christmas.

#49 RichardTO on 01.04.22 at 6:42 pm

DELETED

#50 the Jaguar on 01.04.22 at 6:48 pm

Alberta, wild child of all things resembling restraint is going to hold the line. ( or what Garth likes to refer to as ‘going cowboy’).

“Broader social health’ cited by our Premier Jason Kenney as a reason to ‘hold the line’ and not introduce any new closure measures re Omnicron/Covid surge.

Thank you Jason Kenney. You have my full support. Hope you put on your steel underpants this morning in anticipation of this announcement, but who am I to advise a seasoned political operative like you anyhoo.

“Kenney laid out three things Albertans can do to protect themselves: get vaccinated, limit in-person contacts and take rapid tests “when appropriate.” He stopped short of announcing any new public health measures to stem the spread of the highly-transmissible Omicron variant, saying the cabinet committee meets Wednesday.

The premier said his government is committed to students getting back into classes across the province on Jan. 10, as announced last week by Education Minister Adriana La Grange, and that was not on the cabinet committee agenda.

“We know that in-class transmission has not been a problem,” Kenney said at the Tuesday news conference.

Kenney also called on the federal government to approve Paxlovid, an oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 that has been approved by the U.S. government.”

It’s January 4th, and notwithstanding ‘Omnicron blowback’ as detailed by our hand wringing media ( thanks Tara Henley for blowing the whistle on them, front page National Post), and poor little Jaguar practically being strip searched for Covid at Pearson airport recently on a recent return from international travel, Alberta currently has 61 in ICU, 436 in hospital.
When Delta ‘flaired up’ this fall, we were at breaking point for ICU – 268 peeps.

Calgary’s civic motto is “Onward”. Enough said.

#51 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.22 at 6:52 pm

#107 Albertaguy in AB on 01.04.22 at 12:09 am
The economics of car ownership…at least of 2nd car ownership

…fact most cars sit idle about 90% of the time
…depreciate 30% per year require insurance and maintenance
…do the math…you can take a lot of uber rides for that
…and you can rent for a week or two for long haul driving

So for a $40,000 car…

year 1 12,000 depreciation + ~5,000 (gas + insurance)
year 2 8,400 depreciation + ~5,000 (gas + insurance)
year 3 5,800 depreciation + ~5,000 (gas + insurance)

Not to mention parking, tickets, repairs, etc.

After year 3 the depreciation drops off but the maintenance starts to ratchet up

So the first 3 years of driving cost you $41,000.

Assume you actually need the car every day (unlikely) you could alternatively spend $37 every day on an uber or renting a vehicle when you need to go on holidays or road trip. When Elon unleashes his fleet of FSD taxis, the economics of NOT owning a car will even look more appealing.
——————-
You got that almost right.
Just add interest charges, if financed.
Or opportunity cost of cash if paid outright.
And substitute an F-150 for the car in your sample, and you’re talking real money.
Probably 150k in 3 years.
And it’s after tax money.
Think about that when you tailgate a Honda Fit with your F-150.

#52 Garth's Son Drake on 01.04.22 at 7:01 pm

A bottom in rates formed that ended in September of 2021. Mark this date.

Rates are going up, not only in the short cycle, but also in the long cycle.

The bottom is in on rates.

#53 Diamond Dog on 01.04.22 at 7:02 pm

#46 Wrk.dover on 01.04.22 at 6:42 pm

Yep. And anti vaxxers are yelling loud, “vaccines don’t work! Everyone is getting sick”! Weird times. :/

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.22 at 7:02 pm

#27 JSS on 01.04.22 at 4:54 pm
was reminiscing today of the days when we gallantly walked the streets with no masks. Back in 2019.

wearing the mask will become as normal as wearing underwear
——————
You got that one right.
Real men like anti vaxxers don’t wear underwear.
It restricts their Charter Right “freedom” to move unhindered.
The boys don’t like being restricted.

#55 Joe Rogan on 01.04.22 at 7:03 pm

Is there such a thing as an “acceptable” amount of deaths?

#56 Søren Angst on 01.04.22 at 7:05 pm

B.C. businesses must prepare to have 1/3 of staff out sick with Omicron, officials warn

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-businesses-must-prepare-to-have-1-3-of-staff-out-sick-with-omicron-officials-warn-1.5727017

BC talk for 2/3 since they can’t test, thus count.

——————-

No sign of Omicron burning itself out, hopefully it will?

https://i.imgur.com/Eijb8M1.png

——————-

All things being equal if you use UK Dec 31 Omicron hospitalizations/deaths %’s vs new cases and apply to today’s US 1M new cases you get this as a result:

Hospital 4,627
Deaths 354
[apparently takes a few weeks to happen]

Acceptable? Dow not bothered, +214.59 pts as I type (except for Tesla -4.18%).

1M self-isolating another matter wrt essential services, supply chains, economy, etc.

See how it all shakes out.

#57 Shawn on 01.04.22 at 7:10 pm

Pref shares have a problem

Pref shares of either the perpetual or the rate reset variety can have their place in a portfolio. But it may be that buying should be restricted to periods when they are down nicely below $25 on either an individual basis or as an ETF.

Treat them like most consumer goods, buy only when on sale. Stock up when on sale.

The problem as many learned these past 10 years or more is that they can decline a lot in price under certain circumstances such as interest rates moving the wrong way. Those are times to buy and indeed Garth has said to buy during those times.

On the other hand their upside is almost always capped. The issuers have the right to buy them back usually periodically and usually at the $25 issue price. So if their yields happen to get really juicy and above market the issuers just buy them back.

Case in point. Enbridge has a lovely rate reset pref that has a 5.1% rate minimum reset. It’s coming up for the five year reset on March 22. Enbridge just announced they will buy it back at $25. So that was a good one it had no real downside due to the 5.1% minimum but it also had no upside. The 5.1% however was nice while it lasted.

#58 espressobob on 01.04.22 at 7:29 pm

Ascending markets are so boring. On the other hand, a good correction that appears to have no bottom, well that’s ecstasy.

Contrarians?

#59 sean on 01.04.22 at 7:32 pm

RE:

like 200 years?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_R._Ford-class_aircraft_carrier

——————-
Off topic, but the inconvenient math of 1 (small/cheap) nuke = 1 aircraft carrier means they have always been irrelevant to nuclear state conflicts.

Carriers are only useful for throwing your weight around against smaller, non-nuclear groups who have the temerity to oppose your foreign policy.

#60 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 7:33 pm

#37 IHCTD9
Where’s the argument.
Your focus is on US military hardware and might that i agree no question is globally superior.
The focus of my last half dozen posts on the topic have been specifically and only on the advanced cyber-tech aspect of future warfare.
Read a little more carefully.

#61 Jim on 01.04.22 at 7:42 pm

-“as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion that is somewhat everywhere, somewhat all of the time and kills an acceptable number of humans” haha, whatever happened to “if all these restrictions and lockdowns and billions of dollars save just one life, it’ll be worth it.” So 2020…

#62 DON on 01.04.22 at 7:58 pm

@#46 Diamond Dog

Apparently the ECB does not see enough inflation yet…they need more evidence. I heard the US is sending LNG ships in a flotilla to supply Europe. Nord Stream 2 is held up by international politics. Colder winter than expected…so perhaps rising energy costs may be the final trigger in Europe.

Adding to the nuttiness:
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/property-assessments-skyrocket-on-vancouver-island-in-2022-1.5727314
Average increase 15 to 35% increase with dome places up 40% and Port Alberni up a whopping 47%.

If this can happen, so to can the reverse.

Will be interesting to see if Helocs rise as well.

Municipalities in BC are not permitted to run deficits. The mill rate always covers their yearly budgets and the Island munis have been spending a lot over the past 10 years. They get their taxes and are aggressively hiring bylaw officers to boot.

#63 Daivey on 01.04.22 at 8:08 pm

Real Estate has been on a tear recently and I don’t think it’s going to let up soon. We don’t know what to do with our properties… we purchased our house in 2005 for 400k and its worth just over 2 million now in Toronto and bought two pre construction condo’s for our children which they are staying in while they study at UofT…. we don’t know if we should lease or sell them when they graduate because we could make a large profit on them. Hopefully prices don’t let up before then. We are getting close to retirement and are thinking about downsizing while living like royalty from the proceeds

That decision would take me four seconds. – Garth

#64 Russ on 01.04.22 at 8:15 pm

Hi Garth,

You got me at .”.. But, dammit, the sap is coming.”

It took me back a hundred years to an ol’ Scouts skit that I remembered.

https://scoutorama.com/the-sap-keeps-runnin-skit

https://www.scoutscan.com/skits/skits.html (go to ‘Spring’ on this simple site)

Anyhow, my contrarian nature and your calm guidance back in March 2020 yielded some mighty fine results as I deployed a bit o’ cash. The little woman thought I was nuts but tried to smile.

Today we are retired, with RE value under the rule o’ 90 guideline, just waiting for spring and renewal. So the sap can get running again.

BTW, wasn’t it Trump who released a billion dollars to Pfizer for vaccine research in 2020, something maybe, WarpSpeed?

Cheers, R

#65 Lumber on 01.04.22 at 8:21 pm

…and now here comes the IHU variant, with 46 mutations instead of Omicron’s 30…. Maybe history doesn’t always repeat? Maybe this is something new? I’ll take a second helping of hopium today, thanks.

#66 fishman on 01.04.22 at 8:28 pm

lil potato’s adviser Dan Gardner urged on twitter to no longer call the “other side” enemies, but opponents. I’ll take that as a win when a mortal enemy succumbs to calling one an opponent.
Four container ships anchored in the harbour. Anther big one in Victoria with engine problems. More anchored & going around in circles beyond Jaun de Fuca? $20k for a container from China now? 10k full containers/ship? Thats a lot of Chinese crap & money in limbo. Will Crappy Tire & Wally give the plebeians a deal (deflation) or lean on the pencil (inflation)? Some of those cans are are full of tasty treats for Canuckleheads. Christmas with arbitrage pudding for a long time.

#67 Faron on 01.04.22 at 8:29 pm

#35 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 5:32 pm

#26 Faron on 01.04.22 at 4:52 pm

He has a pet name for Tesla that some will enjoy.

——-

Give it up, F

Sorry I didn’t send you a trigger warning. LOL. I bought some TSLA when it dipped this year and rode it for a couple hundred and then dumped it ’cause garbage. Thanks for the stonk tip tho.

“Number go up” doesn’t mean it’s a corp worth anything more than the rabidity of the fanbois and paid trolls. I dunno, wake me up when Elon says anything remotely intelligent and/or stops lying. Until then I’ll enjoy a very long snooze.

#68 DON on 01.04.22 at 8:32 pm

#37 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 5:34 pm
#148 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 3:51 pm

The US will no longer dominate the future of high tech warfare.
China (among others) far outpace US R&D funding rates by nearly 10 times and will only pick up speed while US funding retreats
——

Where the heck are you getting this stuff? Of the *entire* global spending on military, the US accounted for 39% of the total. China is #2 at 13%, Russia #4 at 3.1%. India outspent Russia on military (that number will increase too, wanna guess why?). The US spent over 3X what number 2 – China did.

You need to get better sources, the US already has a prototype warship run by AI. No one is even close. The US is the ultimate global military superpower *by far* on every front except for their standing army. This absolutely will not change in your lifetime.

*******
I understand the US pays more for their weapons as it’s a lucrative business in the US with many sub contracts and middlemen. Read an article that questioned the expensive contracts…big dollar low quality in relation to other competing countries. Russia has focused a lot of time and energy on missle defense selling the S300 and S400 series all over the World.

Turkey a potential NATO member was on track to buy F35s from the US and the S400 from Russia. The US immediately objected for obvious reasons…Putin didn’t object in the same manner…hmmm.

In terms of we don’t know what we don’t know, I have a hard time believing the US empire’s final demise will occur in my lifetime…then again never say never.

#69 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 8:40 pm

#60 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 7:33 pm
#37 IHCTD9
Where’s the argument.
Your focus is on US military hardware and might that i agree no question is globally superior.
The focus of my last half dozen posts on the topic have been specifically and only on the advanced cyber-tech aspect of future warfare.
Read a little more carefully.
—- –

The US is way ahead on tech. AI directed warships. Does anyone else have them? Twin nuke carriers? Lasers? Rail guns? Anyone knocked an ICBM out of space from a ship, besides the USA? How about multiple remote drone kills from half the world away? Anyone?

Nope.

The standing US army is small for a reason. The Chinese standing army is humongous for a reason. Why? Because the USA does not need a whole lot of humans to wage war, thanks to their world leading military technology. Best in the world. Surpassed by no one. Not even close.

#70 bdwy on 01.04.22 at 8:41 pm

55 Joe Rogan on 01.04.22 at 7:03 pm
Is there such a thing as an “acceptable” amount of deaths?

……………
7.5 billion-ish. just a matter of timing.

#71 Vanreal on 01.04.22 at 8:41 pm

How did post 49 make it through the filter

Now terminated. – Garth

#72 mike from mtl on 01.04.22 at 8:47 pm

Mr. Market is still high off fumes from the Fed’s printer, a passing reflectance to the real world. So far so good apparently.

Yeah persecute, then fire staff at the already terribly run health system. To then be right at numbers of patients of last year – pure genius! They bet the farm on Vaxes but well nature is a bitch.

Back in backwater country rube Canada, even the Corona Broadcasting Corp followers are starting to wake up. Two years of the same crap everything done “by the book” right back to square one, was a waste of time.

Problem is T2 and WEF Co. are still full on with the same agenda, free money, doubling down on stupid.

I guess the only saving hope is the US will soon force them back to sense.

#73 Elon Fanboy on 01.04.22 at 8:49 pm

Mankind got lucky, real lucky.

We could have been facing Omricon contagiousness with Delta severity pre-vaccine.

That would have been a doomsday scenario.

As it is were facing every supply chain on the planet losing upto a 3rd of it’s workforce at the same time. What will be the ramifications of that I wonder?

#74 Diamond Dog on 01.04.22 at 8:49 pm

#39 Nonplused on 01.04.22 at 5:56 pm

The chart you provided when going to max chart:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

Compared to a population pyramid:

https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/

Tells a story. What do we see when we compare them? 16.3% are 65 or older. Zero to 14 years old is 18.4%.
34.7% of the population is too young or old to work. Add up 16.3 + 18.4 = 34.7% inversed is 65.3%. The participation rate chart indicates participation rate is 61.6% as of Nov 5th.

Point is, is the labor participation rate really this high? It appears as though if you can fog a mirror, you are participating in employment. When we add up the car wrecks and the infirm and mentally and physically disabled and the chronically ill and the homeless and the kiddies 15+ in schools college/universities that don’t have time for work, is this really only 3.9% of the population? Count the early retired and living on nest eggs and I have to question the legitimacy of this number.

As for inflation being transitory, the labor average hourly earnings chart sure doesn’t look transitory at 4.9% yoy in November:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-hourly-earnings-yoy

Back in 09’… 10′, inflation took a pop driven somewhat by stimulus but also by a pop in commodities catching up to under exploration and development. Same thing happened post pandemic but note the difference in hourly wages. We simply didn’t see the pop in wages we are seeing now.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 8:56 pm

@#66 fishman
“More anchored & going around in circles beyond Jaun de Fuca? $20k for a container from China now? 10k full containers/ship? Thats a lot of Chinese crap & money in limbo. ”

++++

Yep.
Apparently the US govt has ordered the container ships to “stagger” their anchorage offshore…out of sight.
Los Angeles, Seattle etc….
Ships sitting out of sight, waiting to be unloaded.
A container that 4 years ago used to cost $2000 US now costs up to $20,000 US to ship.

Get ready to pay more….much much more for that Crap.

The Chinese govt has $300 Billion in Evergrande debt to collect before the rest of the property specuvestors in China demand their demand loans to be paid.

Aiiii yaaaaa.

#76 april on 01.04.22 at 9:05 pm

#53 – the vaccine does not prevent infection only severe disease and worse. The overwhelming number of people in ICU and on ventilators are the unvaccinated.

#77 Johnny D on 01.04.22 at 9:07 pm

Wasn’t Jacques LeGauthier from Timiskaming, Quebec… Or was it Jacques LeGatineou?

https://youtu.be/n3LMSflEN54

#78 canuck on 01.04.22 at 9:09 pm

Imagine how much worse it would have been without vaccines. Think 1919. – Garth
_____________________________________________

The Spanish Flu lasted just over 18 months. Not much difference from this time around… even with a vaccine.

Spanish flu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu… Pandemics run their course within 2 years. This one isn’t any different.

The Spanish flu (no vaccines) infected a third of the global population – 500 million people – and killed 50 million. Are you trying to be a moron or is this a natural condition? – Garth

#79 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 9:11 pm

#68 DON on 01.04.22 at 8:32 pm
———-

You and I absolutely won’t live to see the US military fall behind anyone. The USA is retiring technology most of the world hasn’t even invented yet. China and Russia are putting everything they’ve got into ballistic missile tech because they know full well that they can’t touch the US on land, sea, or air conventionally. It’s the military equivalent to a one asset strategy. It’s an equally losing one.

Russia might be a real threat again someday, but China has a long, long way to go. Super long. The US started running nuke powered aircraft carriers in 1961, China still runs diesel powered 40’s tech carriers in 2022. China won’t be downloading plans to build a Ford class carrier off the Net. They’ll have to figure it out on their own, and that’s definitely not their strong point. Even the diesel powered antique they’re running now was a rebuilt decommissioned Russian carrier from the mid 80’s that was obsolete upon launching 37 years ago. All the tech on that ship is Stone Age. It would take 50+ years for China to learn how to build and use something like a Ford class carrier and assemble an effective carrier battle group. They’re just getting their feet wet, while the US built their first carrier in 1927.

#80 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:12 pm

#68 DON

WWIII will be nuclear. As the US drowns out in unmanageable debt levels, funding will decrease each and every year.
WWIII will be fought and won by digital cyber warriors.
A cyber-war of the future America already lags woefully behind in.
Think of the national debt first and where its leading us.
Our foes are all too aware and have plans afoot to eventually upend the US dollar.
When this does happen , all military funding will cease and our enemies will know just how and when to strike America.
It will come sooner than most imagine.
I have been on the topic of smooth talk lately…that which makes one feel good so we can sleep at night.
The double talk of governments and media the masses subscribe to.
Most prefer to leave it with them than dig further for the hated truth.
There are still years left before all hell breaks loose.
We won’t see the 2030’s before it does.

#81 Don Guillermo on 01.04.22 at 9:19 pm

55 Joe Rogan on 01.04.22 at 7:03 pm
Is there such a thing as an “acceptable” amount of deaths
+++++
If there wasn’t we wouldn’t be riding in cars, airplanes or even stepping out on the sidewalk.

#82 Yukon Elvis on 01.04.22 at 9:20 pm

#68 DON on 01.04.22 at 8:32 pm
#37 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 5:34 pm
#148 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 3:51 pm

Russia has focused a lot of time and energy on missle defense selling the S300 and S400 series all over the World.
++++++++++++++++++
Those systems have not been able to stop the Israeli F-35s from bombing the snot out of Syria any time they wish. The Syrians and even the Russians don’t even turn them on cuz the F35s will target them and kill them.

#83 Barb on 01.04.22 at 9:26 pm

Millie’s a lovely girl, beautiful colour. So alert…might want to early-order a rescreen for your door this summer.

So glad to read the word “endemic”.
Hoping to never hear its predecessor again.

#84 The Grim Repo on 01.04.22 at 9:26 pm

#12 Cowtown Cowboy on 01.04.22 at 4:21 pm

…once the Lexus craps out, i should have enough saved for the Convertible 911 Turbo…I’ll be 80 but so what :-)

Sorry to tell you… Your Lexus will most likely outlast you.
Mine will outlast me! Of this I have no doubt!

#85 Shawn on 01.04.22 at 9:31 pm

Global stuff gets real expensive

Number 75 CrowdedElevatorFartz:

A container that 4 years ago used to cost $2000 US now costs up to $20,000 US to ship.

Get ready to pay more….much much more for that Crap.

**********************
Could be. But I remember some ten ot twelve years ago the telegenic Jeffrey Rubin, Chief Economist at CIBC and very frequent guest on BNN became convinced that global trade would shrink as oil was headed to $200. Shipping would be too expensive.

He was so convinced that he quit his huge lucrative job to write a book called I believe “Your World is about to Get a Whole Lot Smaller”.

He ended up being spectacularly wrong. SPECTACULARLY. Wrote a few more books. Changed his mind and said oil would plunge I believe. He is seldom heard of these days.

I learned in my MBA class circa 1988 about how shipping prices are notoriously volatile. One year they soar and everyone is building ships. Later there are so many ships in excess that some get sold for scrap and taken off the market. Sounds like not a lot has changed. Supply and Demand at work.

#86 DON on 01.04.22 at 9:34 pm

#33 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 5:24 pm
“2022 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion that is somewhat everywhere, somewhat all of the time and kills an acceptable number of humans.”

——-

This will disappoint many self-appointed Guardians of the Galaxy.

*******

I am Groot.

#87 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 9:49 pm

#59 sean on 01.04.22 at 7:32 pm

Carriers are only useful for throwing your weight around against smaller, non-nuclear groups who have the temerity to oppose your foreign policy.
——

Exactly. Can’t do that with nukes can you? You can also throw your weight around with anyone, including full nuclear nations. Nukes are not deployable in the modern age. Nukes are almost completely useless today. Go ahead and launch a few ICBM’s against anyone who also has them, or who is allied with someone who does – and see what happens.

Carriers can actually be deployed and do some work. Every ICBM on the planet will house rodents until they are decommissioned. The US hasn’t wasted their time with nuke testing since 1992.

The sooner you understand that nukes are useless, the sooner you’ll understand the power of carriers.

#88 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:51 pm

#IHCTD9
“The US is way ahead on tech. AI directed warships. Does anyone else have them? Twin nuke carriers? Lasers? Rail guns? Anyone knocked an ICBM out of space from a ship, besides the USA? How about multiple remote drone kills from half the world away? Anyone?”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………

All superior US military might will be rendered inoperable when it comes time to fight faced with digital warriors that can and will shut it all down in a well planned and orchestrated cyber affront. A cutting edge cyber affront rivalling anything the us has to counter with that will herald in the warfare of the future. We will live to see this unfold rendering all US military hardware, might and superiority obsolete.
Can’t use any of it if the power to drive it all gets digitally erased from its computer banks. And it will be then.

#89 Thelonious Bunk on 01.04.22 at 9:53 pm

The stock market is a forecasting mechanism. Investors don’t measure reflections. I don’t want to pee anyone off, but 2021 was a gang buster year for me. One of the best. I didn’t just recover the swoon on March 20, I stacked big stacks, which now huddle calmly and pay me regular cash dividends, safe and sound.

Airline and travel stocks have done well despite the wailing. My favorite BKNG broke out to an all time high this week. I’m positioned to buy more. Forecasting, remember?

Yes, O/G stocks are on fire, in spite of Trudeaus maniacal irrational hate. After all, “ Who would find 170 billions of barrels of oil and leave them in the ground?” Quote – Trudeau, but during a campaign. Hahahaha, a real reliable guy, if you take stock tips from a stand up comic. The fundamentals are solid, so is the belief that Trudeaus star is setting.

My call is for more panicked media reports. Hate to say it, but that’s music to my ears. As long as there’s a ‘wall of worry’ for the market to climb, there will be too much money on the sideline to curtail a continued FOMO among pro-investors. Retail investors won’t see the light of day for several years is my bet.

Hence a long ride up on increased earnings and the pricing power of a Fed-Led inflation. My assets are increasing in value with inflation, unlike your paycheque.

So, panic good, more craziness please, it’s good for business, thank you. Between Covid and Climate Change I haven’t decided which will have been more profitable.

#90 Cici on 01.04.22 at 9:59 pm

Only 46, and definitely not overweight:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/california-deputy-da-fought-vaccine-131753710.html

Kelly Ernby, a presumed candidate for the state Assembly in 2022, was only 46 years old. According to the Los Angeles Times, she fell ill shortly after speaking out against vaccine mandates at a rally organized by Turning Point USA on Dec. 4.

“There’s nothing that matters more than our freedoms right now,” she was quoted telling the crowd during the rally at Irvine City Hall.

#91 Shawn on 01.04.22 at 10:05 pm

Alberta is BACK!

Alberta gained people from other provinces in Q3. Prior to that there had been an unusual string of quarters where Albert lost people to other provinces.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710002001&pickMembers%5B0%5D=1.10&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=07&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2020&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=07&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20200701%2C20210701

They probably moved back in bigger droves in Q4 in order to be taxable in Alberta in 2021.

Move here and you can get a new townhouse for $270kor a new duplex for $400k or a new single family home for $600k. (But bring a Parka and maybe a few sled dogs.)

https://www.melcorcommunities.com/property-status/quick-possession/?current_page=4&sortBy=priceLowToHigh

#92 Diamond Dog on 01.04.22 at 10:06 pm

#62 DON on 01.04.22 at 7:58 pm

Looked at Europe’s inflation rate last night, it’s at 5.2% It’s worth noting that they have different formulas for calculating inflation than the U.S. :

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/inflation-rate

EU Area inflation at 4.9% (Nov):

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi

EU core inflation at 2.9%:

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/core-inflation-rate

EU Area interest rate as we have seen since European bond market disruption in 2014 at zero since:

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate

Wage growth is low so inflation could be transitory but that can change quickly and one would have to further verify statistics:

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/wage-growth

There’s notable European asset inflation in real estate (it’s a global phenom of cheap rates):

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/housing-index

The question remains, can European CB’s keep rates at zero forever with their own inflation to deal with? Doubtful. U.S. inflation is without question higher, but Europe will have to deal with inflation as well and trends with both are up.

The Fed may raise rates first strengthening the dollar. But when the EU raises rates, the Euro will pop and the dollar will weaken unless of course they raise rates together which is also quite possible. It’s a question of when and the Fed has already put out indicators but readers should note, both Europe and the U.S. has gone through a significant timed bond buyback to keep rates low and avoid bond market disruption, I think, pandemic era coordinated. Raising rates could also be coordinated.

Where it goes from here, to speculate, one would think there will be deviation in the mid to long term with rates to address inflation (whoever has it most) and currently, it’s higher in the U.S. .

If European CB’s raise rates more slowly, the dollar will further strengthen but this remains to be seen. Another black swan could force the Fed to keep rates low but a black swan would have to crash inflation to keep it there.

Off the top of my head there’s trouble in China (real estate crash, it’s difficult to predict how they handle it or what kind of timeline we are looking at), Russia is rattling sabers, Covid19 could offer a new wrinkle we don’t see coming (few saw Omicron), something environmental (like world wide crop failure, 2021 was more brutal than people realize but this would be inflationary), bond market disruptions in smaller nations (Turkey for example is falling apart) can morph into something much larger (China comes to mind once gain), it could be from the markets themselves (gambling culture generally isn’t a productive culture). With valuations where they are, the markets are always a near term threat now and insiders are selling.

One final thought in all this. Norway’s 1.4 trillion dollar wealth fund (9,000 stocks) see’s and I quote: “The head of Norway’s $1.4 trillion wealth fund said he expects a lengthy period of weakness in financial markets and warned that inflation could be the most significant challenge ahead.” – yahoo finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norway-wealth-fund-ceo-sees-115218851.html

The fund is preparing for a decade of lower returns, which makes sense with current valuations and CB’s having to address inflation. When a CEO managing 1.4 trillion forewarns in this way, it’s hard to ignore.

#93 Blasphemous on 01.04.22 at 10:06 pm

#57 Shawn

How did post #57 get thru?

There’s no place for truth or free speech like this on this blog. It simply does not follow the narrative!

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 10:09 pm

@#85 Shawn.
“Later there are so many ships in excess that some get sold for scrap and taken off the market. Sounds like not a lot has changed. Supply and Demand at work….”

+++

True enough.
I used to have TK Shipping as a tenant many years ago when I looked after several office buildings in downtown Van.
Smart group of people.
Affected by the boom and bust cycles of the shipping industry.
Lots of amalgamation since then.
With the covid shutdowns …the shipping experts think there is about a 3 year lag in ships and crews to sail them to catch back up.

We’ll be seeing these ridiculous container prices for a few years yet.

#95 DON on 01.04.22 at 10:11 pm

#80 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:12 pm
#68 DON

WWIII will be nuclear. As the US drowns out in unmanageable debt levels, funding will decrease each and every year.
WWIII will be fought and won by digital cyber warriors.
A cyber-war of the future America already lags woefully behind in.
Think of the national debt first and where its leading us.
Our foes are all too aware and have plans afoot to eventually upend the US dollar.
When this does happen , all military funding will cease and our enemies will know just how and when to strike America.
It will come sooner than most imagine.
I have been on the topic of smooth talk lately…that which makes one feel good so we can sleep at night.
The double talk of governments and media the masses subscribe to.
Most prefer to leave it with them than dig further for the hated truth.
There are still years left before all hell breaks loose.
We won’t see the 2030’s before it does.

**********

I get what you are saying and so much so that I agree with everything you said.

A cyber war is a game changer (cyber battles /testing currently underway). Attack your enemies internal infrastructure and create havoc in a cascading chain of events. For a bunch of reasons China is talking about a separate Chinese intranet. North Korea has a large cyber army but citizens etc not allowed on the internet. Iran also a large cyber army and no doubt Israel the West etc.

And I get the smooth talk reference…and see a path but not the timeline…let’s both hope I turn out to be right.

@IH

For now the US is the most capable force in the world as long as new weapons don’t serve to level the playing field in some manner in the next few years. The new tactic is to overwhelm current defenses with a barage of missiles. No doubt the US has something up their sleeve or are more advanced but Russia tech is the wild card as you said…what do they have up their sleeve.

Will be intetesting going forward and hopefully in ‘our’ flavor.

#96 Russ on 01.04.22 at 10:12 pm

DON on 01.04.22 at 9:34 pm

#33 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 5:24 pm
“2022 will see the end of the pandemic (investors believe) as Covid downgrades to an endemic flu-like contagion that is somewhat everywhere, somewhat all of the time and kills an acceptable number of humans.”
——-
This will disappoint many self-appointed Guardians of the Galaxy.

*******
I am Groot.

===================================

Nanaimo has Groot.

https://www.nanaimo.ca/NewsReleases/QuotesBy?name=Art+Groot

We consider his contributions as, ‘a work of Art’.

Cheers, R

#97 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 10:16 pm

Its not the military i have a problem with. Its the government driving the country into the ground that’s the big problem.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 10:16 pm

@#78 Canuck
“The Spanish Flu lasted just over 18 months. Not much difference from this time around… even with a vaccine.”

++++
Actually it went around the world several times over approx 36 months.
Fading away each Summer and coming back worse each Fall and Winter.
The worst was the second Spring of sickness when it hammered the young and healthy.
Their body’s immune systems went into overdrive to fight the virus.
Healthy in the am, coughing at noon, dead at night.

The term “feeling blue” referred to the blueish skin tone of the corpses due to the people suffocating on their own mucus filled lungs.

Hearses would drive slowly up and down the streets of Montreal and Toronto neighbourhoods each day at the same time and people would flag them down like taxis to pick up the newly dead.

No vaccines back then.
Count your blessings.

#99 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 10:19 pm

#88 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:51 pm
#IHCTD9
“The US is way ahead on tech. AI directed warships. Does anyone else have them? Twin nuke carriers? Lasers? Rail guns? Anyone knocked an ICBM out of space from a ship, besides the USA? How about multiple remote drone kills from half the world away? Anyone?”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………

All superior US military might will be rendered inoperable when it comes time to fight faced with digital warriors that can and will shut it all down in a well planned and orchestrated cyber affront. A cutting edge cyber affront rivalling anything the us has to counter with that will herald in the warfare of the future. We will live to see this unfold rendering all US military hardware, might and superiority obsolete.
Can’t use any of it if the power to drive it all gets digitally erased from its computer banks. And it will be then.
— —-

Right. I’m sorry, but that’s just not going to happen. None of this stuff is casually connected to the Internet. If it was, it would have been hacked 10X over by now. I mean the US has already taken out multiple targets via drones. If “digital warriors” were so tough, that never could have happened. But it did. Multiple times. It’ll happen again too. Why? Because the USA has their shit together when it comes to military. That’s always been the case, and there’s no end in sight.

Frankly, doesn’t just the very idea of the entire US arsenal being brought to their knees via a collection of hooded foreign hackers seem downright stupid? It should, because it is. Like the US never thought of this? Like the US plunks down a password on their military networks and calls it a day?

C’mon Man, America isn’t light-years ahead of the rest of the world militarily by accident. I think they’ve heard of hackers before.

#100 jim on 01.04.22 at 10:24 pm

“Only one conclusion. Omicron sucks and politicians have lost the battle to the virus. Eateries and airlines are in trouble. Governments are out of bullets.”

**************

People have had enough and are cutting loose

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10369667/Canada-asks-regulator-probe-maskless-party-Sunwing-flight-COVID-cases-soar.html

#101 Anti-vax poster child on 01.04.22 at 10:36 pm

#90 Cici on 01.04.22 at 9:59 pm

Only 46, and definitely not overweight:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/california-deputy-da-fought-vaccine-131753710.html

Kelly Ernby, a presumed candidate for the state Assembly in 2022, was only 46 years old. According to the Los Angeles Times, she fell ill shortly after speaking out against vaccine mandates at a rally organized by Turning Point USA on Dec. 4.

“There’s nothing that matters more than our freedoms right now,” she was quoted telling the crowd during the rally at Irvine City Hall.

________________________
Best (and worst) story of the day. Garth, you should seriously think about reposting this one tomorrow.
Unfortunately, the woman was the poster child for what stupid looks like.

I completely understand and respect her point of view. Re: mandates and vaccines, freedom of choice. Yet, I chose ​to get vaccinated..twice. and will get a third when it becomes available.

My real issue is that she put medical staff at risk AND tied up limited resources that could have been used elsewhere.

She is to be forgiven as she did not know any better. She made a decision that ended up costing her life.

#102 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 10:42 pm

#88 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:51 pm

All superior US military might will be rendered inoperable when it comes time to fight faced with digital warriors that can and will shut it all down in a well planned and orchestrated cyber affront. A cutting edge cyber affront rivalling anything the us has to counter with that will herald in the warfare of the future.

——–

I wouldn’t necessarily go all doomsday just yet:

https://youtu.be/LV01pkm-Yms

#103 Outrage on 01.04.22 at 10:49 pm

Don’t forget high house prices reflect a strong economy, wage growth and strong consumer confidence. Canada is in a good place right now. The world sees how Canadians can afford high real estate and that there is employment to support it. I see a lot of smiling Canadian home owners! Another 10 % to 15% increases for 2022 !

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.22 at 10:50 pm

#81 Don Guillermo on 01.04.22 at 9:19 pm
55 Joe Rogan on 01.04.22 at 7:03 pm
Is there such a thing as an “acceptable” amount of deaths
+++++
If there wasn’t we wouldn’t be riding in cars, airplanes or even stepping out on the sidewalk.
————————
Or go on vacation in Mexico.

#105 leebow on 01.04.22 at 10:55 pm

At any time there are about 10 things to worry about. 6 are usually more important than the other 4, but it’s not clear which ones.

Every investor must keep in mind two Farengi rules of acquisition:
#34 War is good for business.
#35 Peace is good for business.

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.22 at 10:57 pm

#64 Russ
gain.

BTW, wasn’t it Trump who released a billion dollars to Pfizer for vaccine research in 2020, something maybe, WarpSpeed?
——————————-
It was for manufacturing the BionTech vaccine, invented by a small biotech company in Germany.
You’re watching too many Star Treck movies.

#107 Midnights on 01.04.22 at 10:58 pm

If I was an non God fearing man, or a evil man. I would run a script exactly how the government is doing it.
But riches can be held for maybe 100 years or so but one’s spirit can burn for eternity, Lake of Fire.

#108 Yukon Elvis on 01.04.22 at 11:06 pm

A major declaration on the avoidance of nuclear war was issued Monday by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council in the form of a joint statement. Importantly, it included both the United States and Russia, as well as China. This as the question of nuclear reduction has been source of icy tensions between all three large powers of late.

“We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented,” said permanent UNSC members China, France, Russia, the UK and United States. It added: “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.22 at 11:08 pm

80 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:12 pm
#68 DON

WWIII will be nuclear.
————————-
And WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones.
Einstein.

#110 Penny Henny on 01.04.22 at 11:18 pm

#36 T-Rev on 01.04.22 at 5:33 pm
By day 8 my throat was only mildly irritated, but here at day 11 I still don’t have more than about 4 hours of gas in me at a time

////////////////

Fartzy sounds like you, at least 4 Hours of gas at a time.

Sounds like you’ll have to surrender the belt.

Also for you Fartzy, this is your song by The Cranberries.
“did you have to let it linger”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6Kspj3OO0s

#111 TurnerNation on 01.04.22 at 11:27 pm

— We pay high taxes here for all the good stuff we get! Libraries! Military protection! Ambulances! Like totally worth it.
Life in a Former First World Country. (Remember, all future spending will be on “Climate”. Look around. What you see is what you get.)

.[Toronto Mayor John] Tory vows essential services will continue despite staff shortages, but 44 library branches set to close (cbc.ca)

.”Military leaders saw pandemic as unique opportunity to test propaganda techniques on Canadians, Forces report says”
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/military-leaders-saw-pandemic-as-unique-opportunity-to-test-propaganda-techniques-on-canadians-forces-report-says

.Durham Paramedics (CUPE) @RDParamedics
Multiple “Code Zero” called today. No available ambulances in the entire region. Thank you
@YorkParamedics for doing calls from Markham into Courtice today!
https://twitter.com/RDParamedics/status/1478527211250630657


— Jaysus. Kamp guard dogs for the children in the schools. We are so close to normal guys!

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/01/04/covid-sniffing-k9s-dogs-bristol-county/
“COVID Detecting Dogs Begin Working In 3 Massachusetts School Districts”

— Welp the more you test the more they will lockdown. All culture has been #cancelled in Kanada. We have only the CV Testing, CV Protocols. This is life.

.(CTV) “The wait at the Richmond collection centre Monday afternoon was listed as nearly five hours long. Even after staying in line, some may be given a rapid test to take home.

#112 DON on 01.04.22 at 11:38 pm

#82 Yukon Elvis on 01.04.22 at 9:20 pm
#68 DON on 01.04.22 at 8:32 pm
#37 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 5:34 pm
#148 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 3:51 pm

Russia has focused a lot of time and energy on missle defense selling the S300 and S400 series all over the World.
++++++++++++++++++
Those systems have not been able to stop the Israeli F-35s from bombing the snot out of Syria any time they wish. The Syrians and even the Russians don’t even turn them on cuz the F35s will target them and kill them.

*****
I was of the thought that in Syria only the Russian Naval base was protected by the S400 and a guided missile destroyer. The Syrian army has older Soviet versions or so we are told. The Russians just deployed the S500 model on the home front, September 2021.

Also Russia is not getting involved in Israeli/US Coalition attacks on Iranian supported militias according to news reports. One just happened near the US/Kurd occupied oil field in Syria.

So many angles/agendas still being played out in that region. Let’s not forget Turkeys hatred of The Kurds who the US supports (more or less).

The idea is too never get over confident in your current conventional abilities in light of new tech and never make assumptions. Cyber warefare on critical infrastructure is enough to want to detach certain assets from the Internet. Cyber security also a step behind cyber crime.

#113 The West on 01.05.22 at 12:01 am

Pack it tight and get that Hopium bowl cherried.

Don’t get greedy on those pulls. Puff, puff pass……puff puff pass…..

#114 Jane24 on 01.05.22 at 12:38 am

The UK Covid stats for yesterday were 218,000 new cases, where folk actually cared enough to pick up a free test set from their local pharmacy, have the test at home and actually report the results online. I believe the majority are no longer bothering with any of this so maybe 500,000 cases or more in reality. Everyone I know had friends or relatives down with Covid for Christmas and no one reported it to the govt. We had 5 cases in our family but no reporting in. BUT only 47 deaths in the same 24 hours.

The govt had a press conference yesterday and said that we need to live with this. It is not going away. Other than masks in shops and passports in nightclubs, it will be business as usual. Everything is open.

Canada appears to be 6 weeks behind us.

#115 DonQuixote on 01.05.22 at 1:01 am

In AB they have their own TB (treasury branches). Basically a sovereign wealth fund, like Norway? Which is based on their oil resources. Oil is going up, why not capitalize on it?

#116 Nonplused on 01.05.22 at 1:42 am

#74 Diamond Dog on 01.04.22 at 8:49 pm

The employment rate is based on “working age population”, which I believe is 16 to 65. If so children and most retirees are not muddling up the numbers. The trend is down for the “working age population”, which does include students and those on government programs, but not children and most retirees (those over 65).

It is always important with statistics to make sure and understand what data is in the sample. That is why I don’t like the unemployment rate as a stand alone measure. The divisor keeps changing with the employment rate. So ya, unemployment is at 4.1% or something, but that does not change the fact that the employment rate has been dropping and did so dramatically with covid, and still hasn’t recovered. This means less people are working than did before, and that implies GDP growth will not be robust.

To my way of thinking the employment rate is just a better measure than the unemployment rate. People who run out of employment insurance just drop out of the unemployment rate statistic whether they want to work or not. Not so with the employment rate, the base stays the same.

Some people will argue that you shouldn’t count people who “don’t want to work”. But I don’t know if such people actually exist, assuming the jobs are there and the price is right. Maybe there are a number of people with mental problems, physical disabilities, or maybe drug dependencies that simply cannot work. But for most people it is a matter of price. Set the wage high enough and there will be no shortage of applicants.

You can see this in fields such as engineering. Sure, engineers get paid more than the average bear. But it’s 4 years of hell with little to no wages to get there. But people do it. But we have evidence that when the economy turns sour and the engineering jobs dry up, so does enrollment in engineering schools. People aren’t going to do it if the reward isn’t there. But if the reward is there, they do.

#117 R on 01.05.22 at 2:58 am

67: Faron.
Thank You . It is thinkers like you that keeps the long call prices of Tesla cheap. I thank you, may you keep spreading the word.

#118 Matty on 01.05.22 at 3:47 am

“But, dammit, the sap is coming.”

-What does Garth mean by this? I don’t understand the acronym or reference.

Does he mean that this year’s projections are bull or bearish?

#119 Jojodogfacedboy(eNOugh bullSHIT) on 01.05.22 at 5:00 am

The ‘Great Reset’ is the complete turning off the ‘internet’ and wiping all the data off of it including the decades of formatting and data put into it.
This will be done by China as all our current infrastructure technologies go through getting computers and microchip through them.
Russia can retaliate and wipe out any challenges of any military aggressive movement the United States tries to deploy by use of the Oceans as an advanced weapon system creating massive waves that can cause the most destruction.
The United States being blind, any bases are isolated and can be picked off.

#120 Wrk.dover on 01.05.22 at 7:20 am

Cavemen recently won a twenty year war.

Shades of Viet Nam redux.

#121 Dharma Bum on 01.05.22 at 8:25 am

#28 Neo
#38 Doug t

So at this point everything that has been done hasn’t gotten us out of this and we are still in the same place we started.
**********
Yup – we are starting to act ridiculous – imagine how people will react when we are faced with something truly frightening.
———————————————————————————————————

Well, the good news is that maybe (just maybe) the Pollyannas of our pathetic society will begin to realize that the institutions they put so much faith in are completely useless when it comes to actually rectifying situations.

Time to rebel.

The government and its leaders are a self interested bunch of hypocrites so totally focussed on their own political survival that they have gone insane trying to figure out which group to pander to. Seems that they think that the fearful wusses of our province are the majority, so they chose to up the ante on the fear mongering by increasing restrictions, lockdowns, rules, and all measures classified as useless.

It’s a real shame. Those that have worked so hard and believed the lies are getting shafted by the rulers.

Nice guys finish last.

You wanna get ahead? Don’t play by the rules.

These leaders oughtta be publicly hung.

#122 Concerned Citizen on 01.05.22 at 8:27 am

I’ve been seeing commercials with Matt Damon pumping crypto. Hopefully this is a sign the end is near for this particular tulip bubble. Crypto is a disaster for the environment, raises the cost of GPUs, and all for something that has no marginal social utility whatsoever.
Indeed it’s speculated that crypto is used to launder money. The sooner this bubble ends, the better.

#123 Taco Devil on 01.05.22 at 9:48 am

#16 I’m stupid on 01.04.22 at 4:24 pm
You reap what you sow.

Has anyone thought about the reason pcr test have been limited to at risk groups?

I think that giving pcr tests to anyone will increase the hospital numbers. I see 2 types of people, house cats and ally cats. The ones that had to face the pandemic from day 1 outside their homes and the ones that had the luxury of hiding indoors. I think the house cats would flock to the hospital if they receive a positive pcr test not because they need medical attention but because the fear and anxiety of COVID will manifest into more severe illnesses than actually exist. The majority of omicron hospital cases will be treat and release but an attending physician can’t send you home if you’re saying you’re having difficulty breathing. Anxiety also causes difficulty breathing but it still takes time and resources to get through 1000s of scared people.

The government and media scared the crap out of everyone and how they have a society of cowards.

—–

Yes, the opposite of placebo. It is called nocebo – when instead of doing good it does harm.

I just learned something I didn’t know as well. Apparently in the US, hospitals receive all types of payments/benefits as mandated by the CDC for positive cases, ventilation, there is apparently even a $3000 payment to the hospital for each death classified as caused by Covid. This was noted/claimed by Dr. Robert Malone on Rogan’s podcast – which of course carries liability for such claims. Personally, I’d like to see some paperwork on this. Nonetheless, if true this would certainly create noise in the reporting data, would it not?

Our Canadian system is obviously already paid for, but one has to wonder if there are financial benefits to hospitals in declaring something/someone in the Covid column. Yes or No, I certainly don’t expect our media to look into it to verify it and report it in an unbiased factual way, unfortunately.

#124 Taco Devil on 01.05.22 at 9:51 am

#16 I’m stupid on 01.04.22 at 4:24 pm
You reap what you sow.

Has anyone thought about the reason pcr test have been limited to at risk groups?

I think that giving pcr tests to anyone will increase the hospital numbers. I see 2 types of people, house cats and ally cats. The ones that had to face the pandemic from day 1 outside their homes and the ones that had the luxury of hiding indoors. I think the house cats would flock to the hospital if they receive a positive pcr test not because they need medical attention but because the fear and anxiety of COVID will manifest into more severe illnesses than actually exist. The majority of omicron hospital cases will be treat and release but an attending physician can’t send you home if you’re saying you’re having difficulty breathing. Anxiety also causes difficulty breathing but it still takes time and resources to get through 1000s of scared people.

The government and media scared the crap out of everyone and how they have a society of cowards.

—–

Also, regarding those PCR tests….

Apparently they are only for risks groups?

But don’t you need one to travel abroad (and import/export new variants between regions)?

Meaning PCR tests are for high risk groups, heath care workers and those heading south for the winter?

#125 Medium rare on 01.05.22 at 9:51 am

2 tbone on 01.04.22 at 3:49 pm
Nice day to own bank stocks .
Got topped up with a 3rd shot of Pfizer yesterday .
Im good.

You are good….FOR NOW.

#126 Spanish Fluke on 01.05.22 at 9:59 am

DELETED

#127 willworkforpickles on 01.05.22 at 10:02 am

#99 IHCTD9

You’re missing the point entirely. I have not been referring to US military might and capability as it exists today. I told you, I have no argument with you in that regard but in digital cyber technology currently being developed. Its nothing to do with clandestine hooded internet hackers as you suggest either.
there is a ton of info out there with regard to where the US stands and how they lag behind in the development of digital high tech and will continue to fall further behind. It has nothing to do with who has the better planes, ships, guns, weaponry, military hardware, laser tech or supersonic ballistic missiles. The US has all that good stuff and leads the world in those categories no question.
Just as there is no imminent threat of attack on US soil, advanced cyber warfare capabilities of tomorrow that may already exist aren’t about to be put to the test anytime soon either. There are some years to go yet.
It won’t take nukes anywhere near as advanced as those of current US nuclear technology and might to knock out US cities, just a superior overriding system capable of shutting down the integrated digital response systems necessary to defend the country.
Weaken the country where it can be taken over and all US military and nuclear might remaining falls into enemy hands.
All that is impossible in your mind and opinion. And you have a lot of company…about 99% of the population.
More-so even because it is simply unconscionable that the US could ever fall victim to nuclear attack and its remaining arsenal ever be taken over.
Is it unconscionable that endless piling on of national debt could ever lead to the upending of the US dollar culminating in the end of the much coveted primary world reserve currency status also.
Few realize the mutual plot of countries to do just that even exists…but it does. And when it happens and it will, the real time -beginning of the end- will come to our shores.

This is the last post i am submitting or responding to in this string as its gone way over the number of posts i ever wanted to submit on the subject and well off the theme of this blog.

#128 Defeat on all fronts on 01.05.22 at 10:30 am

#13 James on 01.04.22 at 4:23 pm
My wife is a nurse downtown and she said this isn’t your fake news story. We are now almost at 100% capacity with covid. Oh and the best part the hospital staff are now infected and can only do minimal interface with patients.
WTF?

But, but, the vaccines are working..lmao

#129 Phylis on 01.05.22 at 11:03 am

#118 Matty on 01.05.22 at 3:47 am
“But, dammit, the sap is coming.”

-What does Garth mean by this? I don’t understand the acronym or reference.

Does he mean that this year’s projections are bull or bearish?
Xxxxxxx
Tree sap, the good stuff of syrup. How sweet it is. So, bullish.

#130 Gravy Train on 01.05.22 at 11:12 am

#118 Matty on 01.05.22 at 3:47 am
“‘But, dammit, the sap is coming.’ What does Garth mean by this? I don’t understand the acronym or reference. Does he mean that this year’s projections are bull or bearish?” In late winter and early spring the starch in xylem sap of sugar maples converts to sugar. That’s the time to tap the tree trunks to collect the sap. Capisce? :P

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.22 at 11:13 am

@#114 Jand24
“Everyone I know had friends or relatives down with Covid for Christmas and no one reported it to the govt. We had 5 cases in our family but no reporting in. BUT only 47 deaths in the same 24 hours.”

+++
Your large family is considerably reduced.
My condolences.

#132 Faron on 01.05.22 at 11:19 am

#117 R on 01.05.22 at 2:58 am

Thanks for self-identifying.

BTW, prices on options, like everything, are demand driven. The demand from people like you is high, hence they are not cheap. Care to tell us how much premium you have spent money on?

#133 Russ on 01.05.22 at 11:20 am

Ponzius Pilatus on 01.04.22 at 10:57 pm

Russ

BTW, wasn’t it Trump who released a billion dollars to Pfizer for vaccine research in 2020, something maybe, WarpSpeed?
——————————-

It was for manufacturing the BionTech vaccine, invented by a small biotech company in Germany.
You’re watching too many Star Treck movies.

====================================

Hey Ponz,

Is your comment because I left out the “Operation” tag of Trump’s plan?

https://news.yahoo.com/truth-trump-operation-warp-speed-103059422.html

Catching up on Star Trek movie series is a good idea. It’s been a while and ‘ looks like snow coming our way again.

Cheers, Russ

#134 Brian on 01.05.22 at 11:26 am

Canada’s national debt is now 9 TRILLION DOLLARS!

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/sta … 0269420546

Which puts us only second to Japan amongst developed nations..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIRldMhVUAI … name=small

#135 KLNR on 01.05.22 at 11:56 am

@#119 Jojodogfacedboy(eNOugh bullSHIT) on 01.05.22 at 5:00 am
The ‘Great Reset’ is the complete turning off the ‘internet’ and wiping all the data off of it including the decades of formatting and data put into it.
This will be done by China as all our current infrastructure technologies go through getting computers and microchip through them.
Russia can retaliate and wipe out any challenges of any military aggressive movement the United States tries to deploy by use of the Oceans as an advanced weapon system creating massive waves that can cause the most destruction.
The United States being blind, any bases are isolated and can be picked off.

bwahahaha

#136 Yukon Elvis on 01.05.22 at 11:57 am

#112 DON on 01.04.22 at 11:38 pm

I was of the thought that in Syria only the Russian Naval base was protected by the S400 and a guided missile destroyer. The Syrian army has older Soviet versions or so we are told. The Russians just deployed the S500 model on the home front, September 2021.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Russia also has an air base in Latakia, Syria that is protected by the S400. The radars stay dark when the Israeli F35s are out hunting.

#137 KLNR on 01.05.22 at 12:08 pm

@#88 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 9:51 pm
#IHCTD9
“The US is way ahead on tech. AI directed warships. Does anyone else have them? Twin nuke carriers? Lasers? Rail guns? Anyone knocked an ICBM out of space from a ship, besides the USA? How about multiple remote drone kills from half the world away? Anyone?”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………

All superior US military might will be rendered inoperable when it comes time to fight faced with digital warriors that can and will shut it all down in a well planned and orchestrated cyber affront. A cutting edge cyber affront rivalling anything the us has to counter with that will herald in the warfare of the future. We will live to see this unfold rendering all US military hardware, might and superiority obsolete.
Can’t use any of it if the power to drive it all gets digitally erased from its computer banks. And it will be then.

lol, sure.

#138 KLNR on 01.05.22 at 12:23 pm

@#128 Defeat on all fronts on 01.05.22 at 10:30 am
#13 James on 01.04.22 at 4:23 pm
My wife is a nurse downtown and she said this isn’t your fake news story. We are now almost at 100% capacity with covid. Oh and the best part the hospital staff are now infected and can only do minimal interface with patients.
WTF?

But, but, the vaccines are working..lmao

they do work.
most of the folks languishing in ICUs are unvaxxed.

#139 Squire on 01.05.22 at 12:32 pm

There will always be variants. It’s a corona virus !
Garth, the difference between now and 1919 is the lack of courage or lack thereof today.
I think also what will come out of all this is a two tier health system in Ontario. (not sure about other provinces) Canadians like to laugh at the expense of Americans but they seem to be managing better than us. Just saying

#140 willworkforpickles on 01.05.22 at 12:35 pm

There are arguments to support the US dollar retaining its primary worlds reserve currency status in that it wouldn’t be economically feasible for any coalition of countries to cause an upset of the dollar considering its current strength.
There is another equally compelling reason to hold off in upending the dollar few if any in the west have considered in that willing nations looking to eventually do so conspire to.
That is debt. Its all about debt. The debt issue. Rampant spiralling US debt.
Debt will be the rope they hang us with.
So let the US pile on mountains more of it.
There’s time. They’re giving us the time to pile on whole mountain ranges of massive new debt yet still.
Yes, its the rope they will hang us with over a much devalued dollar later.
The perfect time for them to upend the dollars reserve status will come and will most assuredly destroy America economically.
Regarding the implications of it , it will destroy us most definitely economically speaking.

A country (US) badly weakened economically first, could then fall victim to attack more easily later.

It is true…we don’t understand…much of the world beyond our shores would like to see America out of the way for good.

I am pro America 110 percent as are many/most Americans…A nation that believes itself invincible…nonetheless we need to be aware of the transpiring plots against us.

#141 IHCTD9 on 01.05.22 at 12:43 pm

#127 willworkforpickles on 01.05.22 at 10:02 am
#99 IHCTD9

You’re missing the point entirely. I have not been referring to US military might and capability as it exists today. I told you, I have no argument with you in that regard but in digital cyber technology currently being developed.
___

I hear what you’re saying, I just don’t believe that the US forces will be flicked aside so assuredly by future cyber tech. If the USA has to worry about anything, it’s probably their debt pile, and their often angry citizenry.

#142 Gravy Train on 01.05.22 at 1:00 pm

#116 Nonplused on 01.05.22 at 1:42 am
“The employment rate is based on ‘working age population’, which I believe is 16 to 65.[…]” I retired at age 56, so I suppose I’m messing up your figures. “The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force.” See the link below for further details.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#unemp

“To my way of thinking the employment rate is just a better measure than the unemployment rate. People who run out of employment insurance just drop out of the unemployment rate statistic whether they want to work or not. Not so with the employment rate, the base stays the same.” “Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.[…]” See the link below for further details.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#unemp

“Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.” See the link below for further details.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#nlf

“Discouraged workers are a subset of persons marginally attached to the labor force.” See the link below for further details.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#discouraged

“Displaced workers are defined as persons 20 years of age and older who lost or left jobs because their plant or company closed or moved, there was insufficient work for them to do, or their position or shift was abolished.” See link below for further details.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#displaced

In short: read more, and bloviate less. :P

“Some people will argue that you shouldn’t count people who ‘don’t want to work.’ But I don’t know if such people actually exist, assuming the jobs are there and the price is right.[…]” I assure you I exist, don’t want to work, and don’t want to be forced to work. I will volunteer my time once (or if) we get out of this global pandemic.

#143 yvr_lurker on 01.05.22 at 1:13 pm

#98 crowded

Hearses would drive slowly up and down the streets of Montreal and Toronto neighbourhoods each day at the same time and people would flag them down like taxis to pick up the newly dead.
——–
Indeed. My grandfather (long dead) lost both his mother and father (who were in their early 30s) within a 6 month interval in Montreal at that time. Being 12, he was sent to an orphanage and his formal schooling essentially completely ended at grade 6, while his younger sister was sent to another orphanage. The siblings lost track of each other and only were able to reconnect around 1940 through the help of social workers. Spanish flu changed his future big time.

Indeed, no vaccines back then.

#144 spanishbacterialfloo on 01.05.22 at 1:25 pm

“Imagine how much worse it would have been without vaccines. Think 1919. – Garth”

And this is where comparison with “Spanish Flu” ends…how many variants did that have? Anyone!?

Started in a military base, Fort Riley, spread among soldiers during the WWI and actually claimed more victims than the bullets.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/first-cases-reported-in-deadly-influenza-epidemic

Coincidence, an experimental vaccine program was running in Fort Riley since 1917.

“Following an outbreak of epidemic meningitis at Camp Funston, Kansas, in October and November, 1917, a series of antimeningitis
vaccinations was u n d e r t a k e n on volunteer subjects from the camp”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2126288/pdf/449.pdf

#145 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.05.22 at 1:26 pm

Garth
So how does money keep up at 7% benchmark return?
The promoted inflation rate I’ll argue is far higher then reported.
So where’s the return (protection from inflation) plus an income annually?
My stuff does 5-10% compounding annually plus tosses me a DIV of 7-9% annually.
And its a safe leveraged position.

AND for anyone that’s afraid of EVRERYTHING that is tossed at you from the powers that be over the decades…you MUST see this hilarious piece.
Everything is about control. Most can’t figure it out.
Dolce Vita comes to mind. Just chill dude everything’s going to be alright.
Is it politics BS or science driving everything.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDCCvOv3qZY

#146 Chauncey Wisdom on 01.05.22 at 1:41 pm

#129 Phylis on 01.05.22 at 11:03 am

#118 Matty on 01.05.22 at 3:47 am
“But, dammit, the sap is coming.”

-What does Garth mean by this? I don’t understand the acronym or reference.

Does he mean that this year’s projections are bull or bearish?
Xxxxxxx
Tree sap, the good stuff of syrup. How sweet it is. So, bullish.
….

As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.

In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.

There will be growth in the spring!

#147 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.05.22 at 1:51 pm

#69 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 8:40 pm
—————————————-
Friend in the US 2 boys work for military high level.
They got stuff no one has. Their loaded for bear.

#148 Shawn on 01.05.22 at 1:57 pm

Sovereign Wealth Fund?

#115 DonQuixote on 01.05.22 at 1:01 am

In AB they have their own TB (treasury branches). Basically a sovereign wealth fund, like Norway? Which is based on their oil resources. Oil is going up, why not capitalize on it?

****************************
The Alberta Treasury Branch is NOTHING at all like a sovereign wealth fund. It’s basically a crown corporation. The government makes some profit off it. For Albertans it’s just another bank.

Interestingly though it does compete against the private sector banks and is non-taxable. No one ever points out that irony in a province that prides itself on private enterprise.

Maybe you refer to the Heritage Fund which is a sovereign wealth fund? Alberta never grew its sovereign wealth fund much for two main reasons:

1 Oil sands oil is expensive and can’t support a huge government royalty. Norway oil was far cheaper to produce and could support a bigger royalty.

2. Alberta chose and chooses to use the massive oil royalties that it did manage to collect to provide a lower provincial income tax rate (both personal and corporate) and avoid a provincial sales tax. Can’t have it both ways.

#149 the Jaguar on 01.05.22 at 1:57 pm

@#136 Yukon Elvis on 01.05.22 at 11:57 am

What’s all this talk about military might and various military toys? There won’t be any invasion because the Donbass area/citizenry is being slowly evacuated to Russia. D.Orlov says Russia doesn’t need to set foot on Ukrainian soil as they can blast away from inside their own borders.

What’s the US doing nosing around there anyway? Isn’t 750 military bases in 80 countries around the world (most who don’t want them there) enough for them? How would the US feel if military exercises by Russians were being executed on the Quebec border of New York state? A little too close to home, I suspect.

I just feel someone needs to defend those Ruskies ( even though a few recently behaved very poorly on a Sunwing charter flight ) because there were some really cute ones in charming little bathing suits on my recent beach holiday. Yes, I am that shallow.

Besides, Sail Away is correct. (as he often is..). Digital and currency wars will be all that is needed to bring down most countries these days. Any conscripts to fight possible wars are in the line up outside the pot stores. Just monkey with the internet or electrical grid.

Now where did I leave my vacation photos…….

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.05.22 at 1:59 pm

@#138 KLNR
“most of the folks languishing in ICUs are unvaxxed.”

++++

Darwinian Law at it’s most ruthless.

#151 Faron on 01.05.22 at 2:00 pm

Garth promotes a steady, balanced approach over hot stocks or hot ETFs. Why? Because hot can mean hot garbage.

If, in late August, 2020, you thought to yourself “this ARKK thing looks pretty cool” and bought, you are underwater now. Fund flows show that, on average, ARKK has lost people money as of today’s plop. If you bought XEQT you are up 28% over the same run. Steady Eddie.

#152 millmech on 01.05.22 at 2:07 pm

117 R
I take it your selling calls and making bank on the premium, friend of mine still holds GME and and makes over 1k/mth in premium.

#153 tbone on 01.05.22 at 2:09 pm

# 125 medium rare

No , still good . Even better actually .
Go get a vax .

#154 Quote of the day on 01.05.22 at 2:15 pm

DELETED

#155 X on 01.05.22 at 2:31 pm

Read this about the CMHC proposal to tax all houses valued over 1 milllion: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cmhc-funded-report-proposes-million-dollar-home-surtax-181720935.html

It is kinda funny in a way, as in some cities this would basically be the average house for the average family, on the average income, which they clearly could not afford. And in that if something like this were introduced, eventually with inflation, all houses would surpass this threshold, becoming a simple gov’t money grab.

#156 Meh on 01.05.22 at 2:33 pm

#2 tbone on 01.04.22 at 3:49 pm
Nice day to own bank stocks .
Got topped up with a 3rd shot of Pfizer yesterday .
Im good

__________________________________________

Yes nice to invest in criminal institutions creating rampant inflation, feeding insane housing costs and making millionaires and billionaires even wealthier during a worldwide crisis with hundreds of millions out of work (the employment numbers are pure BS) with real economies cratering daily (again, the stats/narrative are pure crap).

Hey let’s take it and run right? I personally shouldn’t be up $900K with my portfolio in 18 months while millions are dying and suffering let alone Elon Musk having a net worth north $300 billion. Perversion of the highest form.

Oh and get in line for your 4th and 5th shot, take that to your precious bank.

#157 Faron on 01.05.22 at 3:13 pm

#152 millmech on 01.05.22 at 2:07 pm

117 R
I take it your selling calls and making bank on the premium, friend of mine still holds GME and and makes over 1k/mth in premium.

If he’s selling, why would he crow about how cheap they are? Wouldn’t he want stonk $ pumpers? I wonder if R actually understands that TSLA haters like myself feed higher skew, via puts, not call prices? Probably not. I’m guessing R is licking his wounds today watching theta eat through his Friday $1200 TSLA calls. Elon might rescue him yet tho.

Millmech, if your friend holds anything north of 60 shares of GME he lost a whole month’s worth of premium (that comes with massive risk) in share price just today. So, he gets to take huge risk to his shares by selling calls while benefiting from much of the downside. Sounds fun.

All you options punters are going to get hella wiped this year if you haven’t already. Sure, you will see some green P/L screen shots on r/WSB etc, but people don’t shout their losses from the rafters. GL.

BTW, ARKK now down 6.7% today and has lost the $90 psychological support. Rates soaring. No bueno.

ES pushing deep into the overbought area on its hourly RSI. Typically means the window for purchasing is opening. Unless you think this is THE CRASH.

#158 Faron on 01.05.22 at 3:21 pm

Kinda wondering where that guy who made high-pitched gleeful sounds when TSLA ramped on Monday went off to. Maybe he Sailed Away?

#159 KLNR on 01.05.22 at 3:22 pm

@#139 Squire on 01.05.22 at 12:32 pm
There will always be variants. It’s a corona virus !
Garth, the difference between now and 1919 is the lack of courage or lack thereof today.
I think also what will come out of all this is a two tier health system in Ontario. (not sure about other provinces) Canadians like to laugh at the expense of Americans but they seem to be managing better than us. Just saying

lol.

Fn love the hot takes on this blog.
Just sayin’

#160 R on 01.05.22 at 3:28 pm

#152 millmech on 01.05.22 at 2:07 pm
I buy out of the money calls on Tesla that expire approx 2 years out in my TFSA. I only make transactions in 6 month intervals ( 1 sell, 1 buy).

#161 Late to the party on 01.05.22 at 3:29 pm

155th!!!!!

#162 I don’t know on 01.05.22 at 3:32 pm

@#128 Defeat on all fronts on 01.05.22 at 10:30 am

Vaccines are probably the most important public health invention in our history as a species. History shows vaccines respond differently to different viruses though. Smallpox was able to be eradicated completely. The polio vaccine took around ten years. Other vaccines need yearly, 5 year, or ten year boosters. People often still get sick from diseases like whooping cough after vaccination all the time, but get mild versions thankfully. This isn’t new.

We are only about a year or so into the covid vaccine and they have shown to be effective at preventing severe illness, even with a virus like covid that mutates so easily. Science will absolutely prevail here. It’s still incredibly early by historical terms, but it’s just a matter of time.

#163 Sail Away on 01.05.22 at 3:41 pm

#158 Faron on 01.05.22 at 3:21 pm

Kinda wondering where that guy who made high-pitched gleeful sounds when TSLA ramped on Monday went off to. Maybe he Sailed Away?

——–

You mean the TSLA that is +2.45% this week, while the NASDAQ index is -4.4% over the same period?

Not bad. Not bad at all.

Hey, did you see this Tesla Model S ran 750+ miles at 55 mph on highways in cold weather on a single charge?
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-model-s-runs-752-miles-on-a-single-charge-powered-by-startup-s-new-battery-178327.html

#164 tbone on 01.05.22 at 3:44 pm

# 156 meh

Im up more than that , thank you banks .
Get a vax loser

#165 I don’t know on 01.05.22 at 3:54 pm

156 Meh on 01.05.22 at 2:33

You are correct regarding the increase in inequality. But how do you know that tbone doesn’t take his extra bank profits and donate them to hospitals? Or that they don’t give him the freedom to volunteer to feed the homeless? We live in a capitalistic society. The desire for profit does not override the desire to help each other and be kind. The two can and do overlap a lot of the time. The alternative economic systems are worse in all ways.

A yearly flu vaccine has been offered for decades now. Over time, there are people have had probably had 20-30 of those vaccines. Yet, prior to covid no one castigated them. Covid looks similar in that it will require another yearly vaccine, at least for a while. This is just how medicine often progresses, in a none-linear fashion.

#166 Diamond Dog on 01.05.22 at 8:35 pm

#116 Nonplused on 01.05.22 at 1:42 am

Agreed. I likely got tricked on a play of words with what is formulated as an “active work force”. What you say about incentive is also spot on. Catch you on the next one.