Dr. Garth

OMG. Omicron. The authorities are freaking again. Ontario just locked up tight with the premier warning of 100,000 new cases. Or more. Per day. The fear’s being poured on thick as justification for closing schools, driving a stake through the hearts of restauranteurs, and mandating WFH for at least a month. Quebec has its curfew back. Nunavut is locked down. Boosters are flowing everywhere. NB’s premier is Covid-positive. Quel mess!

But entering Year Three since the BeforeTimes, we’re tough. That slimy little pathogen and its variant spawn may have halted life back in 2020, but in 2022 that’s not happening. So let’s get on with talking about things other than spike proteins, antibodies, positivity rates and whether or not Theresa Tam is an avatar.

The Dr. is ready for your non-viral queries. And to start us off, Franky. He wants advice to give his 24-year-old daughter (who shouldn’t need it).

Samantha is 24 years old and is a pharmacy technician with the provincial health authority.  She has maximized her TFSA investments and has additional investments in non-registered accounts – almost enough for her to purchase the new car she would like to buy.  My question is what is her best option;
a) Purchase the car outright with the money she has saved.
b) Finance the car.  The dealership is offering a very low interest rate.
c) Lease the car.
d) Other

Cars are depreciating hunks of metal (or plastic). Vehicles are tools, not investments. And a rule of thumb in life is this: buy what appreciates, rent what doesn’t.

Sure, the car cowboys below decks will tell you how much can be saved by cleaning your own crankcase and keeping a ride for 12 years, but in the real world a 24-year-old pharma lady probably just wants transportation. And far more important to her future is a nestegg tucked away in a TFSA or taxable account. So depleting that for wheels is dumb. Especially when the cost of money is low and financing is less than inflation. That’s essentially free money.

So, (a) no way. (b) A sound option. (c) The best choice if she wants zero maintenance costs and the ability to turn the thing in for a new version in two or three years – ensuring problems never materialize. With high inflation, low rates and robust investment returns this is no time to burn off capital on a thing that’s worth less than you paid the first day you drive it.

So, speaking of investments, inflation and the future, Lawrence is a confused Millennial, but wise enough to come here.

As you consistently point out my cohort has not seen the likes of what is coming from a policy and interest rate perspective.  I’ve always baked in a 6.5% annual rate of return as average for my investments, but with inflation high and interest rates going up what should we consider to be a target average annual return on our 60/40 balanced portfolio?

If central banks target 2% inflation and let’s assume they hit that again on an average over a long term period, are we to continue to comfortably assume a rate of return of 6-7% is the goal over the long term?  Or rather if interest rates are going to go up to the high single digits, should we not assume a higher rate of return on our portfolio, something like 10% or 12% .  This is based on the assumption that if interest rates are, say, 9%, we could invest in GIC’s at about that rate as well so a balanced portfolio would earn a bit more..

At the end of the day I understand that the buying power of my retirement fund in the future is correlated to what inflation and rates do long term as well, I’m just curious what you see a long-view investors outlook should be.

Raging inflation is a child of the pandemic, or the expected post-pandemic recovery. The virus busted the supply chain, created a labour shortage and brought surging demand for stuff because services were restricted. And you know what happened to houses. Inflation destroys currencies, so CBs try to tame it. Raising the cost of money makes it more valuable, cools inflationary pressures and dampens consumer spending. It’s a blunt instrument.

But inflation runs hot in economies that are expanding, which is bullish for corporate profits and equities. So even though Mr. Market knows rates will pop this year, prices continue to swell. Meanwhile rising yields depress bond prices, but inflate the capital value of rate reset preferreds. In short, a 60/40 B&D which is global and bond-light (unlike, say, VBAL) continues to be a good bet. Aim for 7% and you will probably not be disappointed. And if GICs ever hit 9%, it will mean inflation is at double-digit levels and debt-servicing costs have bankrupted all governments. Hope by then you have a cabin in the woods.

Okay, this is fun. Armageddon. What better topic for a day when the Virus Eats Toronto?

Here’s Brian who says, helpfully, that we’re doomed:

Great blog, Garth. I’m sure your eagle eyes have noticed a crumbling U.S. democracy that will soon result in political chaos and probable civil war in the world’s mightiest nation and biggest economy – a country that happens to border our own and is our biggest trading partner. Please share your wisdom as to how Canadian investors might cope with that beast – before it starts to move. We’re all ears.

Civil war in the world’s largest economy, with the fiercest military is unthinkable. Worse, there are 121 guns in circulation for every hundred Americans. Over 18 million new firearms were purchased in 2021. And 44% of all registered Republicans report being armed. Of those, 75 million voted for Donald Trump, who instigated a rebellious assault on the US capital exactly a year ago.

Scary, for sure. But political rebellion is unlikely. If it were to occur, markets would react violently, central banks would go into emergency response mode and the global economy would slump into recession, or worse. The States pumps out $21 trillion in economic activity on a planet where the total of all countries’ output is $94 trillion. It controls the global financial system. The US$ is the world’s reserve currency. It is mankind’s tech incubator. Shattering any of this would be epochal. Canada could become a mecca for millions of American refugees – especially those wokists and progressives with nose studs, tats and Teslas. We might need a wall.

That’s no answer, Brian, because there is no viable defence. But you’ve made us feel so much better about the threat from our little Omibuddy. Pffft. We got this.

About the picture: “This is my son’s dog,” writes Rick, from the Kootenays. “Marigold is half Retriever,  half Yellow Lab. My cycling buddy. Happy New Year.”

150 comments ↓

#1 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 3:37 pm

Next to my house there is a small grocery store. My mother told me to buy some things there and, cause everybody already knows me, I went tousled and dirty. It had to be something quick, but there was a girl in the cash register. She looked pretty nice and I didn’t want her to see me like that, so I immediately turned around like if I was forgetting something. I waited her to leave so I could go.

I know, I’m a petty and lazy antisocial.

#2 Tony on 01.03.22 at 3:39 pm

US military might is fading. Russia and China are building hypersonic missiles.

#3 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 3:42 pm

One time when I was in elementary school a speaker came to our school to talk about dinosaurs for whatever reason obviously as small children we were all super interested in what he was saying like wow amazing this guy studies dinosaurs that’s so cool well he starts talking about what dinosaurs ate and he mentions carnivores eat meat and herbivores eat plants and I thought I was the hot shit because I shouted out about how omnivores eat both plants and meat and he pointed at me vigorously and exclaimed a loud yes and I just think back to that moment sometimes because the only reason I knew about omnivores was because I played spore

#4 Toronto manz on 01.03.22 at 3:50 pm

The TTC is unreliable. A new car is a good investment for someone working in the healthcare field. A car is a must. It pays off in the end.

#5 Dogman01 on 01.03.22 at 3:51 pm

Channeling Turner Nation.

Two articles in Canadian MSM, Globe and Mail.

Opinion: The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare
https://upjobsnews.com/opinion-the-american-polity-is-cracked-and-might-collapse-canada-must-prepare-news-more/

Opinion: 2022 is the year America falls off a cliff. How will Canada hang on?
https://upjobsnews.com/opinion-2022-is-the-year-america-falls-off-a-cliff-how-will-canada-hang-on-news-more/

There is an ongoing erosion of the entire Western Middle class, Individual based, prosperous society.
Freedom (and Gun) loving Americans feel that they actually “own their country” and are less likely to accept a Globalist post national state agenda.

A huge swath of Americans have noticed their prosperity and freedoms are under assault by an array of “progressive” forces; MSM\Big Tech\Global Corporations\Ultra Wealthy\

What I find fascinating is dispute the obvious grievance that the US establishment simply will not acknowledge that: “Trump did not bring division. Division brought Trump. If you don’t see that, then you’re part of the problem.” Ryan Fournier

Now the G&M being the MSM is filled with TDS , one of these articles eventually reaches the depths of Godwin’s law: Trump = Hitler.

#6 Doug t on 01.03.22 at 3:51 pm

Next up – Doomicron – you can’t make this shite up, humans are a nasty blight on this rock and Mother Nature will bring balance back like a women/they/them/it scorned

#7 Shawn on 01.03.22 at 4:04 pm

Give Credit Where Credit is Due

Credit, as in the ability to borrow or pay later, is the great grease of the economy.

With credit, decades ago, farmers bought tractors and improved productivity.

Entrepreneurs and even established businesses need and use credit constantly to expand their businesses.

Credit allows consumers to buy now and pay later and so they do which drives up demand and economic activity.

Half the people say they are $200 a month from bankruptcy but in reality that $200 is easily borrowed today and the economy keeps going around.

If and when something happens to tighten the credit markets and borrowing becomes harder then the economy will surely slow.

Institutions have been willing to lend to governments at negative real returns. Even negative nominal returns in Europe and Japan, I understand.

That’s amazingly easy credit. Can it continue?

What could tighten credit markets? A recession could. Possibly even forecasts of higher inflation could.

Stock markets and the economy in 2022 and 2023 are heavily dependent on the credit and lending markets not tightening much.

I stand by popcorn in hand.

#8 Omicron Kenobi on 01.03.22 at 4:09 pm

Told you so.

I am in control of 2022.

Do not resist.

#9 Wrk.dover on 01.03.22 at 4:10 pm

With a lease, you know how much you get to ‘sell’ it for at the end. In writing. Or, if the situation changes because of inflation and the car works out, you can buy the balance owing, again at the end. Perfect.

One the other hand, manly men keep every car they buy, for decades, not years. Three of what still I have (indoors), I bought in 1993, another in 1983.

#10 Linda on 01.03.22 at 4:11 pm

‘We might need a wall’ Thanks for the smile of the day!:)

#11 Kevin on 01.03.22 at 4:14 pm

Here are the original links instead of this questionable website:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-american-polity-is-cracked-and-might-collapse-canada-must-prepare/

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-2022-is-the-year-america-falls-off-a-cliff-how-will-canada-hang-on/

I don’t think it’s getting to “Godwin’s law” but something is wrong with the American political landscape. There really are two Americas, and the the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Some say the 2020 elections will be the most civil one we’ll see this decade… we should brace ourselves for a changing America… and one that might be fascist and undemocratic. If it wasn’t for Mike Pence in 2020 certifying the vote in the Senate, we might have already been there.


Dogman01 on 01.03.22 at 3:51 pm
Channeling Turner Nation.

Two articles in Canadian MSM, Globe and Mail…

#12 Slim on 01.03.22 at 4:18 pm

You should definitely lease a Hyundai or Kia. Given their history of engine failures.

#13 Leichendiener on 01.03.22 at 4:21 pm

“whether or not Theresa Tam is an avatar”. You’re polite and respectful as always.

#14 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 01.03.22 at 4:21 pm

Back in the days when we used to have car payments always did well by purchasing with a Balloon option. Basically could keep upgrading as soon as the certified warranty ran out. Worked out better than leasing due to similar payments and no restrictions.
Worth looking into it and doing the math ,not sure what today’s rates are.

#15 Sail Away on 01.03.22 at 4:23 pm

Thanks Garth! Some comments:

1. Omicron… yawn… Tesla up 14% today
2. Yes, S. should either lease or finance a new car with favourable credit terms. No dealership upgrades.
3. The US is nowhere near the unrest the media has apparently succeeded in convincing B. exists. Just in case, though, I’ve purchased an excellent new upland bird gun.

#16 Millennial 1%er on 01.03.22 at 4:23 pm

Going to put all of that eating out savings into my newly minted 6k TFSA room. Thanks douggie!

#17 Alberta Ed on 01.03.22 at 4:25 pm

Dog help anyone who trusts the Glob & Pail for financial advice.

#18 Henrik on 01.03.22 at 4:26 pm

The leasing companies are obviously for-profit, so I doubt leasing instead of owning will be cheaper in the long run. So if leasing companies have all the expenses with maintainance and depreciating assets, surely they will price that into the lease.

#19 XGRO and chill on 01.03.22 at 4:32 pm

People buy less car when they buy in cash, so they are more careful about what they buy. When people finance they are more easily upsold on features, higher trimlines, etc, because the monthlies only go up a small amount.

Dealers know this, which is why they don’t do cash bonuses anymore. They want you to finance. Makes you go back to the dealer more, which means more opportunities to trade in your car for a new one. The goal is to keep you on the merry-go-round, perpetually on that new car buzz.

Go ahead and finance, but be iron-willed in your resolve to get a sensible vehicle and keep it for the long run. Statistically, you will fail at this.

Most cost effective thing is to do what my coworker does. He buys a 20 year old civic, for about $1k. Drives it until it breaks down, doing nothing but oil changes. Usually lasts a handful of years. Then he buys a new one. He has spent probably $5k on buying cars in the 15 years I’ve known him. He supervises staff who finance new VW GTI’s, and Subies.

#20 cuke and tomato picker on 01.03.22 at 4:32 pm

If you have a professional job plus a fruit farm you can deduct all expenses for your trucks and half your expenses for one car and if you have electrical timed irrigation for your fruit trees you can deduct half your electrical bills. However the farm must make a good
profit which is easy in the South Okanagan if you are a GOOD GROWER. All machinery is also deductable. Then on top of that is depreciation. All cars, trucks, and machinery we ever bought were new and paid with CASH. NEVER OWE ANYBODY A PENNY.

#21 wallflower on 01.03.22 at 4:32 pm

Marigold lives in paradise

#22 wallflower on 01.03.22 at 4:35 pm

oh, and, to Toronto manz

We know you live in the Centre of the Universe, and we know you know you live in the Centre of the Universe,
but what has that go to do with Samantha?

#4 Toronto manz on 01.03.22 at 3:50 pm
The TTC is unreliable. A new car is a good investment for someone working in the healthcare field. A car is a must. It pays off in the end.

#23 Habitt on 01.03.22 at 4:37 pm

#2 tony good luck with that. No one knows what treasures they conceal. Don’t bet against America

#24 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 4:40 pm

Comments 1 & 3 not by me.

Having read the literacy level of the Comments I rest assured that the individual that wrote that is firmly and WELL off to the left of the mean in this chart:

https://i.imgur.com/QXiFcHQ.png

I don’t know, Grade 8 reading and writing level?

Whomever you are you will have to write intelligently and for the record my end of the chart is way off to the right, past the little grey area where it can no longer be measured.

So good luck there 2 bricks short of a full load mimicking me.

Accept that the Supreme Being was not kind to all when handing out the grey matter, as in your case.

#25 John on 01.03.22 at 4:42 pm

Apparently the MREA changed some rules effective the first of this year. I’m told agents now won’t discuss anything with you unless you sign a buyer’s agency contract first. How can that be? Even if someone only enquires about a listing? Anyone know anything about this?

#26 ogdoad on 01.03.22 at 4:44 pm

“Civil war in the world’s largest economy, with the fiercest military is unthinkable.”

Wow…proletariat vs bourgeoisie? Are we so sure that in the age of the most information and knowledge we have ever experienced and the greatest wealth gap that we have ever experienced that, perhaps, have-nots are starting to not believe the crap that havs are feeding them? Organized attack on the capitol, reddit army hacking the stock market to make a few people rich for nothing? Booze at every street corner? Who can organize the biggest force, or believers, now, Musk? Trump? Def’n not T2…or Biden? I think he fell asleep during his last speech. Are the elite smart enough to keep the numbers at bay as the numbers of us losers just keep increasing?

Didn’t Marx say something about capitalists and exploitation? I’m too lazy to look it up.

As for today: Lease, if you can handle the stress, Sam. Buy, if you can handle the shame.

Og

#27 Dogman01 on 01.03.22 at 4:46 pm

#11 Kevin on 01.03.22 at 4:14 pm

G&M has a paywall so figure I would post the questionable links. (and yes we should pay for Journalism)

Pretty much the first article moves to Godwin’s law.

Outsourcing your middle class economy overseas to enrich a small elite is just a bad long term strategy for a stable “social contract”.

You would think after Trump, after a close 2020 election the US establishment would change course but they have doubled-down, Biden’s presidency is a shambles, I suspect there is a realistic probability that Trump will come back.

Trump Voters like the Wiemar Republic Counterpart?:

“If your house is already burning down around you, there isn’t much downside to trying to extinguish the blaze with a swimming pool’s worth of gasoline. It might be enough to deprive the fire of oxygen, or it might just explode, but the house is already toast. Practically, an explosion won’t make the house any worse off, so there’s no real downside to trying out the gasoline idea.

This is why it’s a really bad idea to have gross wealth (and success) inequalities in society, even if society overall is getting wealthier. Wealth distribution matters.”

#28 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.03.22 at 4:48 pm

THE PERFORMANCE CLOCK HAS BEEN RE-SET.
2022, and I’m back in the trench, no sleep, as the performance clock has been re-set, turned back to zero. I’ve got to fight my way forward, preaching the gospel of responsibility. Living within your means, paying down debt (before investing) building a war chest (cash) for the fast approaching rainy season. And most importantly, looking after priority # 1, your health. I’m not breaking new ground with these predictions. As it becomes consensus and capital shuts off, as in “The Withdrawal Of Liquidity.” The overindebted Ponzi investors will be going into free fall. For years these cowboys are max long, often with heavy leverage. They all follow the same economic gurus, they copy each other, and they copy what’s working. As a result, complacency has set in. Aggressively valued, transitioned into silly, but it kept on working, so no one cared. They invested in companies labelled “Compounders”, or companies that you could buy and forget about, Why? because the value would eventually catch up to the share price. I think inflation is about to wake up all these Ponzi investors from their Rip-Van-Winkle slumber. When inflation rages to the point the Fed is forced to act, all you want is , Current Cash Flow” not 2050 cash flow discounted back. Sleep tight my little beauties.

#29 cramar on 01.03.22 at 4:49 pm

It looks to me that Samantha has “almost enough (in her non-reg. account) to purchase the new car,” so touching her TSFA is not the issue.

I know Garth would disagree on this point, but many of us know from experience that buying the best 3-5 year-old use car has proven the best option over time. Drive it for 10-years or more, then do it all over again! This ends up less than repeated leasing finances and insurance charges. The key is to get the right reliable transportation (Honda/Toyota) with low mileage. The problem with this is people want to be seen driving new wheels. Those who are wealthy couldn’t care less, since the money saved goes into investments.

Way back in 1998, Thomas J. Stanley pointed out that the average millionaire next door is not driving a new fancy car.

#30 Wuhan we got y'all in check on 01.03.22 at 4:55 pm

Matthew Harrison Director of Research Biotech from Morgan Stanley has been consistently on the ball with his Covid forecasts. A couple of weeks ago he basically said that Omicron would whip through the population at an exponential rate and there is little we can do to stop it. People who are vaccinated will generally have mild to no symptoms while the unvaccinated will take it on the chin.

He expects it to peak by end of Jan to mid February and almost all of the population will be exposed to it at some point.

Looks like this is what the market is pricing in and sadly it is possible our hospitals will be overwhelmed by the unvaccinated.

Oh – and if you want to buy a car Toyota pickups and the Jeep Wrangler hold their values really well if that’s your cup of tea.

#31 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 5:01 pm

Omicron is not a yawn.

When I see this on NBC Nightly News last night for NYC:

https://i.imgur.com/6CwKMHz.png

or a Cdn airline doing this:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/westjet-consolidation-flights-omicron-weather-1.6300717#:~:text=WestJet%20Airlines%20says%20it%20is,among%20staff%20in%20recent%20days.

[Airline says it has seen 35% increase in active cases among staff in recent days]

or this in London etc.:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-bins-overflowing-with-waste-in-parts-of-england-due-to-coronavirus-staff-shortages-12508422

[COVID-related staff shortages have resulted in “terrible” delays to collections]

or this in Paris:

https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/30/covid-19-staff-shortages-stoke-fears-at-hospital-near-paris

[there are currently 20% of intensive care beds in the Ile-de-France region that are closed due to lack of personnel]

Here we see economic damage being done, essential services being cut back and of course recycling bins in need of love.

—————————

Recall early last year most of you, INCLUDING this Blog’s Author, did not listen when I was telling you Covid-19 was not the flu and to be taken seriously.

You all pulled idiotic percentages etc. and other ad nauseum facts but in the end, almost all of you got:

VAXD.

Ipso facto.

Omicron I hope well blow itself out as in it has run out of hosts. When that will happen I do not know and neither do any of you.

In the meantime enjoy the economic damage and curtailment of essential services TO COME.

You are BEHIND Europe in Omicron by at least 1 month Canada. You have no idea what is coming your way…same words I used here early last year to you all.

As for NYC, America’s Canary in the Coal Mine.

…now go back to sleep in your Tesla, hug Precious.

#32 TurnerNation on 01.03.22 at 5:02 pm

— Attn. Joe 6-Pack. My local micro-brewery raised prices 16% in the last couple months.

-A non-economic post. Potentially a glimpse into the future:

–And…here comes the army. This is temporary yes?

.”Bill Blair @BillBlair Following our approval of Quebec’s request for federal assistance, Canadian Armed Forces personnel will begin their deployment today to provide support to the province’s vaccination campaign. ”

— Don’t worry tho…this all is not designed to be ‘going away’ any time soon.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddawkins/2021/07/19/george-soros-and-bill-gates-backed-consortium-to-buy-uk-maker-of-covid-lateral-flow-tests-for-41-million/?sh=2e7fe9402687
“Jul 19, 2021 -George Soros And Bill Gates’ Backed Consortium To Buy U.K. Maker Of Covid Tests For $41 Million”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10355941/Biden-signs-137M-deal-COVID-test-factory-start-producing-83-3M-tests-month-late-2024.html
“Biden signs $137 million deal with German pharmaceutical company for COVID test strip factory that will take THREE YEARS to build and will start producing 83.3 million tests a month in late 2024 at the earliest”


— ^ But why? Is that not the trend? Test test, never treat or cure? Alberta mailed them out; also the school children are being conditioned. Your permanent QR code. What did I say in Q2 2020. “In the New System you have no right to be sick; and no right to be healthy.”
This other blog offers a theory:

https://wrenchinthegears.com/2022/01/02/the-us-federal-reserve-told-us-in-april-2020-expect-universal-daily-testing-if-you-want-to-participate-in-society/
“The US Federal Reserve Told Us in April 2020: Expect Universal Daily Testing If You Want to Participate in Society”

#33 Shawn on 01.03.22 at 5:07 pm

Car Dealer Wants you to finance or lease?

#19 XGRO and chill on 01.03.22 at 4:32 pm

Dealers know this, which is why they don’t do cash bonuses anymore. They want you to finance.

***************************
The dealer gets quite a fat commission if you finance or lease through the dealership offers. They make far less on a cash purchase or where you arrange your own financing.

They can make just as much on the finance commission as they made on the markup. And the various dealer addons like rust coatings or especially any kind of insurance are very profitable through commissions.

The idea of a discount for a cash buyer is laughable these days but made sense 60 years ago when the dealer himself might have offered financing and took that risk.

#34 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 5:11 pm

My last Comment…Correction

That was 2020 when I warned.

Haven’t got used to 2022 yet and the way it is shaping up, I doubt I ever will.

But hey, Omi’s a nobody…just like you all told me about the original Covid-19 two years ago.

1 month behind Europe is what you are at best Canada.

Brace.

#35 Sail Away on 01.03.22 at 5:12 pm

#29 cramar on 01.03.22 at 4:49 pm

I know Garth would disagree on this point, but many of us know from experience that buying the best 3-5 year-old use car has proven the best option over time. Drive it for 10-years or more, then do it all over again!

——-

Buy a new car and drive it for 13-15 years. Works out better. Don’t buy Skippy’s ride.

#36 Cici on 01.03.22 at 5:14 pm

I have a 2010 Honda Civic, that I got on sale brand new for the price of a used vehicle (well, $300 more at the time). The only major repairs I’ve had to perform on her are replacing the brakes and yearly oil changes. It’s been a great ride. I did get financing though, but even still, all things amortized, she’s cost me well under $2,000 per year so far for the duration of ownership. Minus gas, of course.

At times I’ve been tempted to feed my mid-life crisis with a new car that might make me slightly more desirable, but I just can’t go through with such an unneeded expense. Besides, at my age, who needs to be desirable?

So Plane Jane it is with one less huge and frivolous expense to worry about. I hope to get another great year or two out of her. Wish me luck!

#37 Reality Check on 01.03.22 at 5:16 pm

Civil war in the world’s largest economy, with the fiercest military is unthinkable.
—————————
The civil war outcome likely only occurs if Trump is 2024 presidential candidate and loses, and claims the election was stolen. Republican states would declare a slate of Trump loyal electoral college representatives who would is falsely certified Trump as winner. The Dems would protest claiming rightful victory. The whole thing goes to the Supreme Court but in the meantime both the Republicans and Democrats “swear”in presidents and civil unrest could occur.

Ultimately it would come down to which president the military supports. One would hope the military sides with the actual/obvious winner of the election – which would be the Democratic president to any rational observer.

Trump was never a supporter of the military except in words when it suited his purpose. So that the military would support the unpredictable, egotistical, childish Trump seems unlikely.

And yes there will be some members of the military that desert and support Trump, but they will just be part of the unorganised Republican nutbars fighting the most powerful and tactically organized army in the world.

#38 AM in MN on 01.03.22 at 5:17 pm

Oh how so many on the left are so easily swayed by drivel from the left wing media.

“Democracy is in peril” is the standard rallying cry from the left any time they lose. No different than the cries to change first past the post voting in Canada anytime the left loses.

Check out the recent election in Virginia. Close, but no calls of fraud because Fairfax County didn’t go into shutdown, kick out the poll observers and then re-open in the morning with an extra 200,000 D votes. They didn’t do it because they were being watched too close and the poll watchers wouldn’t have left the building.

Such will be the case next time as well.

In the mid-terms, only a couple Senate seats are ever so close that corrupt Democrat run cities can pull stunts like that to make the difference. The house seats in those regions already go D by 20%-30%, no fraud needed.

In the half a dozen big Democrat cities that might pull something like 2020 again, the poll watchers won’t leave the count rooms, even if ordered, and the R’s will put more effort into countering vote fraud. Thus, no “crisis of democracy”.

The big risk to a crash of the US economy is always and only the Fed. Biden doing his best to kill the energy industry and transportation networks, just like Junior, but he can only hurt so much in the next year.

Remember, unless the D’s get united, the US still runs under Trump’s tax regime for at least 2022 now.

#39 tbone on 01.03.22 at 5:29 pm

Samantha should buy a Toyota Corolla and keep if for 15 years .

#40 bdwy on 01.03.22 at 5:31 pm

Leasing requires the driver keep the full package of insurance.

the guy buying the civics keeps only basic liability and saves a ton in insurance on top of an almost free car.

ie
shiny new transportation
lease 550
insurance 200
mtce 0
total 750/mo

reliable transportation
‘payment’ 100
insurance 110
mtce 50
total 260/mo

#41 Jim on 01.03.22 at 5:31 pm

Buy a beater Toyota for $1200 and drive it into the ground. It’ll probably last a year, costing $100/month. If it breaks down, get dad to fix it.

#42 RMTL on 01.03.22 at 5:36 pm

Hi Garth,
You have busted VBAL every time you had the chance lately.
Would you have any recommandation for the Mills that can’t (yet? ever?) afford your level of service and want minimum work on rebalancing ?
Thanks again for all the good recommandations

Know what you are buying. – Garth

#43 Do we have all the facts on 01.03.22 at 5:38 pm

There seems to be conflicting messages emerging in this blog.

– Economic growth in Canada will be driven by increased consumer spending on goods and services.

– The best use of surplus disposable income is to purchase equities as part of a balanced and diversified retirement package.

While Canadians held close to $200 billion in surplus cash in the first quarter of 2021 a majority of this surplus cash was invested in residential real estate and equities or used to reduce debt.

It seems unrealistic to assume that increased consumer spending in 2022 will exceed $30 billion. The primary reason reflects the simple fact that 90% of surplus cash remaining in 2022 is held by wealthy Canadians who have a history of investing, not spending, their surplus cash.

Without a significant increase in consumer spending prognostications of 4.0% GDP growth in 2022 seem overly optimistic. Over one half of all Canadian households have a minimum amount of surplus cash and current inflation will soon consume that.

Our governments must shift their focus on finding ways of increasing investment in the Canadian economy and the incomes of the bottom 50% of Canadian households where increased consumption will have an immediate impact on economic growth.

When did I ever tell people to buy stocks? – Garth

#44 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 5:41 pm

One last Salvo on Omi.

New cases chart Europe, N. America:

https://i.imgur.com/59gmqIF.png?1

You see, Omi just starting to stretch its legs in hapless N. America.

Why hapless?

Don’t test. Don’t Count.

https://i.imgur.com/mdI6k43.png

Threw that in just in case you thought Germans were Norse Gods of Valhalla…they aren’t, they just prefer not to know what’s coming or in their midst. Testing champs of the EU right up there with plucky Canada.

——————-

When you read staff shortages cut 15% of flights for WestJet you know that lowers net income. They are not the only ones undoubtedly going to see revenues fall thanks to Sweet Innocent Omi.

Let alone the Essential Services cuts you are going to see Canada.

And, you will not be safe in your own Private Habitat. Omi will find you.

Heck it found these Canadians essentially, in the middle of nowhere:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/3/covid-outbreak-indigenous-community-urges-canada-to-send-in-army

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/military-sent-to-help-manitoba-first-nation-battling-covid-19-1.5218746

—————-

Better get your bird gun ready Canada.

#45 Penny Henny on 01.03.22 at 5:41 pm

#24 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 4:40 pm
Comments 1 & 3 not by me.
///////////////

Quite obvious, but still much more interesting than you.

#46 Penny Henny on 01.03.22 at 5:45 pm

Re Ontario’s new lockdowns.
Booked reservations for today and tomorrow immediately after the press conference.
Went to the pub early today and will do the same tomorrow.
Anyone dare to guess how long the restaurant shutdown lasts?
I say, as long as it takes to drive them out of business.
Ontario “Closed for Business”

#47 Ray Skunk on 01.03.22 at 5:48 pm

Brian’s clearly been reading too much Globe & Mail over past few days.

Plenty of opinion pieces there claiming the US is on the brink of civil war, democracy in the US is dead, etc.

A nice distraction from the utter incompetence in leadership north of the border, where we’re ruled by a unelected PMO of backroom persons, where Junior needn’t bother showing up in Parliament to answer questions (even when it is reluctantly open), where committees are denied legally ordered documents, meetings filibustered, prorogations occur, etc.

Yes, the US is where democracy is dead.

The Liberal media bailout fund: the gift that keeps giving.

I assume the CBC are peddling the same kind of shite, but for my own mental well-being I don’t go there anymore.

#48 Penny Henny on 01.03.22 at 5:55 pm

To Faron.
I read multiple sources of news and events and then I decide what to believe or not.
If you are following Dolce’s (hair on fire) twitter’s feed then I feel sad for you.
As a pseudo scientist you are supposed to be objective.

He has admitted that he goes out shopping (very briefly as to be safe) with mask, shield, gloves, plastic gown and disinfectants.
Dolce stop hiding behind your mamma’s skirt (bless her soul), live a little bit.

If all you think about is dying then you are not living.

Going out for dinner soon.
Hoping to catch Covid.

#49 baloney Sandwitch on 01.03.22 at 5:55 pm

If you are biz man leasing a high end benz or an audi makes sense. It projects success and you can expense the lease. For a young pharma tech, not a good idea. Just buy a cheap small car with the lowest interest payment and drive it for 10+ years.

#50 TurnerNation on 01.03.22 at 5:57 pm

#38 Macduff on 01.02.22 at 4:25 pm — thanks — ya no way fam! This weblog is a serious financial publication. We are languishing way down in the unholy Steerage Section.

— Economic Shutdowns in this Former First World Country. Once again, the Ontario “Re-opening Act” always was a “re-closing act”. Flip what our rulers tell us, 180 deg to make sense.
QUESTION: You think they will let us our of our cages again without yet another layer/set of permanent control measures? And yes, Surgeries are cancelled. Sorry guys I have to say it feels like WW3.

-All the old culture must be cancelled. It’s like the #cancelculture movement was training us for this:

“Indoor dining at restaurants, bars and other food establishment must close.” Indoor meeting and event spaces must close and public libraries are limited to 50 per cent capacity. Museums, gyms, galleries, zoos and science centres must close. “Indoor concert venues, theatres and cinemas must close during this period.”


—A local small time journalist:

[email protected] Any government that shuts down sectors in which a vaccine passport was previously mandated is admitting the vaccine passports did nothing.


— We pay high taxes for all the cool stuff we get!
A mainstream news (Toronto Sun) journalist tweets this. He gets Life in Kanada and Science in Kanada.

[email protected] For everyone outraged that the province they live in has decided to ration PCR COVID tests, consider the bigger picture. This is how we deal with every health issue in Canada, we ration care.
If you are outraged at rationed COVID tests, why not be outraged over other rationing?

— At least hospitals are not overrun with flu cases as in other years. It appears to be…erradicated.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/flu-influenza/influenza-surveillance/weekly-influenza-reports.html
From August 29 to December 11, 2021 (weeks 35 to 49), less than five influenza-associated hospitalizations have been reported from participating provinces and territories.

#51 Kurt on 01.03.22 at 5:59 pm

“Samantha … the car she wants”

Garth, you missed the most important piece of advice, and you came so close! A car is a tool – don’t buy the tool you want, buy the tool you need! (I’m at 15 years and counting on my Honda Fit, a brutally efficient transportation tool. I *wanted* an S2000, I could have afforded an S2000, but I bought the right tool for the job and would never have it any other way.)

#52 I don’t know on 01.03.22 at 6:06 pm

Agreed on all fronts. Rent cars. Stay invested, and ignore all the noise.

Regarding the US, the only people who believe this type of scenario are usually those that spend too much time on social media, or watch a lot of news.

Never bet against America. It was true in the 1770’s, 1860’s, 1920’s, 40’s, 60’s, 70’s, 2001, now, and for the foreseeable future. No country in our existence has ever had a system that channels the human spirit as well as America’s does. Add in perfect geography, and it’s simply unbeatable in any way.

#53 Grunt on 01.03.22 at 6:09 pm

Samantha if you can do it. Rent closer to work and walk. If you can cut a car out of your life you’ll always be better off for it.

#54 Ed on 01.03.22 at 6:11 pm

America is just fine unless you read the tabloids.

#55 WFH Guy on 01.03.22 at 6:11 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#56 Kirk on 01.03.22 at 6:18 pm

These lockdowns are very hard.

I am the father of two kids under 5 and it breaks my heart. Though my wife and I are far more fortunate than most who have suffered immensely during these lockdowns.

For me, this pandemic has exposed how poor our health care system is. I am very proud to be Canadian, but we may have to re-think the private option alongside public care.

America is moving on from covid partly because that their health system (private) is not overwhelmed.

I hope that this lockdown actually does some good, if not, what a disaster for many.

#57 RichardTO on 01.03.22 at 6:22 pm

@30 Wuhan…

>”Looks like this is what the market is pricing in and sadly it is possible our hospitals will be overwhelmed by the unvaccinated.”

What an utterly abhorrent post. One would have to search deep in the bowels of Reddit or the Toronto Star to find stupider editorializing. Go pull up the provincial or federal healthcare statistics, do it NOW. If you know how to read a chart, you will see that over 2/3ds of the hospitalized are “vaccinated”. Then report back to apologize.

With 90% of Canadians doubly-injected, it is the vaccinated (but not naturally immune) who are the greatest burden on the healthcare system. Luckily, Omicron is here to help, and ensure that EVERY “vaccinated” individual will now get infected and develop immunity to the wild virus.

#58 Penny Henny on 01.03.22 at 6:23 pm

Re leasing cars.
Let me tell you a little story.
I think it was back in 1995 and I was working in sales at a Saab dealership, Anyhoo some guy comes in and needs to sell his 93 Saab 9000CDE because he just took a job in the states.
The best offer he got for his 2 year old car was $21,000 (he paid over $45,000) I wasn’t prepared to pay him any more but then for reasons unknown (used car leasing was almost non existent back then) I looked into the GMAC residual guide and lo and behold the one year residual was $23,500.
That means I had a buyer for this car one year from now with 20,000 more km for $23,500.
I offered $21,500 on the car and got it.
So I sold the car to myself for $23,501 (needed to have at least $1 depreciation plus there was the $500 GMAC paperwork fee) and still had $1500 in profit less my commission.
My one year lease was $263/month tax in (11% interest rate).
After that I found many more mistakes in the residual guides and made good coin.
Some of my other leases.
2 yr old Mustang GT conv $214/mth
3 yr old Saturn SL1 $99/mth
2 yr old Maxima GLE $200/mth

And most under warranty.

I also started the used car leasing in Toronto where I was buying 2 year old Jags for 26k and the two year residual was 30k. Good times, the leasing companies had no clue.

#59 Debel on 01.03.22 at 6:24 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth, look forward to it everyday. Happy New Year.

#60 Dr V on 01.03.22 at 6:24 pm

20 Cuke

“All machinery is also deductable. Then on top of that is depreciation.”

—————–

No, depreciation is not “on top” of a capital expenditure.
It deducts the cost of the investment over time.

Maintainance, fuel and insurance related to the capital
expenditure are operating costs and and should be deducted monthly.

Leasing can be done either way. I always took it as a monthly.

#61 Dr V on 01.03.22 at 6:27 pm

Further to above, here is good explanation

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/112814/does-capital-expenditure-capex-immediately-affect-income-statements.asp

#62 twofatcats on 01.03.22 at 6:28 pm

Jan 3 Today’s flipped ‘Principal Residences’

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/J6Em7bnP45Q7XBeq/47-TOULON-Crescent-London-N6V1J4-40192113-X5448755-X5448758

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/1DBW7RDOwlkYqlAp/1668-Brentano-Blvd-Mississauga-L4X2Z8-W5453352

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/mZRW7naj8w9yEBO9/25-Prince-Cres-Brampton-L7A2C9-W5458396

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/eQp5yO86Bdw7d0ZE/365-FIRST-Avenue-Welland-40196388-

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/XRla7gxdqbR3jEvL/364-FIRST-Avenue-Welland-40179627-40179627-X5406882

#63 Lake lover on 01.03.22 at 6:33 pm

Hi Garth
Thanks for all your great advice. It is much appreciated. Your comments on the 24 year old and her car were right on. My question is what about a much older person (retired plus) who has the cash. Which option would be best for her for a new car?
Happy new year to you and Dorothy

#64 DON on 01.03.22 at 6:36 pm

For the health care professional I would go with financing a base model with a good track record and all the warranties. She may have to work shifts etc and needs a reliable vehicle and LESS worry for Dad.

The US has always been divided but are UNITED against the rest of the countries in the World. We are marching towards a multipolar World as new weapons even out the former gaps, apparently a hypersonic race the moment…can only imagine what is happening behind the scenes…cyberwares etc.

Omni…the threat appears to be that lots of people are/will be off sick after all the holiday mixing. Not enough frontline staff to run schools…hospitals and all the other front line essential and non essential services. Not as lethal but most likely to swamp the entire system.

The MSM is getting dazed and confused with their own Covid reporting.

#65 Steven on 01.03.22 at 6:39 pm

Well in Ontario and Quebec Trudeau has to bring back the Cerb since waiters like my wife cannot work. No one mentioned that yet. You think $270 a week is going to cut it? A year ago inflation was what 2%? Pony up Trudeau. Oh by the way I wouldn’t be surprised if this lasts longer than 3 weeks. Yes and everyone who wakes up tomorrow morning and sneezes has been told it’s probably Covid and to stay home. Do not expect much in the way of economic growth this month.

#66 Pro-vax pass, yes minister on 01.03.22 at 6:47 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#67 IHCTD9 on 01.03.22 at 6:51 pm

#2 Tony on 01.03.22 at 3:39 pm

US military might is fading. Russia and China are building hypersonic missiles.
——-

The US also has hypersonic missiles. But more importantly, the US has twin-Nuke powered Ford Class carriers with rail guns and lasers that will eventually answer the HSM question. When that day comes, HSM’s will be obsolete the day after.

China’s best (only?) Carrier is a crusty old rebuilt diesel powered Soviet-era antique.

The USA has more naval power than the rest of the world *combined*. If they stopped all military development tomorrow, it would take 50+ years for the rest of the planet to catch up. The USA can project power. Russia and China cannot, except with nukes – but these are un-deployable weapons due to 110% mutually assured destruction.

#68 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.03.22 at 6:55 pm

PEOPLE ARE LISTENING.
Dolce Vita, stay the course. Don’t let the Naysayer’s get you down, time will prove you right on your Omicron predictions. They never kick a dead dog, so keep on barking, many responsible people are listening.

#69 Drinking on 01.03.22 at 6:55 pm

I am just a dumb cowboy that can actually change a hose or fix a leak for 1/30th or 1/20th or 1/10 of the price of a cooperate garage will charge you, depending on where one lives; I am proud of that!! Great friends that know how to weld, think outside the box, build, love these guys!

Going hunting and fishing!! Filling up my freezer!!

#70 espressobob on 01.03.22 at 6:58 pm

The TFSA is a no brainer. Loading up the contribution limit with after tax income and enjoying tax free growth over time can really add up. Nothing to figure out.

An RRSP is proving to be the best tax shifting account going. Add to reduce higher tax brackets, withdraw in lower ones.

Pump the dif in TFSA first and the rest in a non registered account. Buy Canadian in the latter for tax preference. A T3 is easier to swallow than a T5.

A bit of homework can prove quite profitable.

#71 IHCTD9 on 01.03.22 at 7:13 pm

For Frankie, I say option D:

Buy a 2-3 year old car. Damn near half price, damn near new. Not much goes wrong these days before 200K on the odo.

Or buy a time-capsule, that’s what I’ve done the last couple times. My ‘03 was bought a few years back with 127K on the clock. Just bought a ‘91 with 260K on the clock (low for a 31 year old diesel). Kinda need to be a car guy/gal for this option though.

#72 Drinking on 01.03.22 at 7:17 pm

#78 Ryan Lewenza

Been away for a few days; you know, like working??

For your post!
Groceries represent a portion of what we spend money on. Haven’t you seen things like TV and computer prices decline in recent years? Or how Zoom conference calls can replace expensive business traveling costs. You need to look at the full picture. And lastly you’re coming to Garth’s blog for info/content. If you don’t like what you’re reading you can go elsewhere. This isn’t a prison. – Ryan L
———————————————-
Ok, fair enough, but what you do not get is that I have been coming to Garths blog for up to date info for years, followed it, and have done ok, not going anywhere, we have agreed to disagree.
If you are just going to post charts that do not reflect on what is actually happening out there and pat yourself on the back for doing so, then perhaps you go elsewhere, nobody is forcing you to write this crap!!

#73 Shawn on 01.03.22 at 7:20 pm

Excess cash?

#43 Do we have all the facts on 01.03.22 at 5:38 pm

While Canadians held close to $200 billion in surplus cash in the first quarter of 2021 a majority of this surplus cash was invested in residential real estate and equities or used to reduce debt.

It seems unrealistic to assume that increased consumer spending in 2022 will exceed $30 billion. The primary reason reflects the simple fact that 90% of surplus cash remaining in 2022 is held by wealthy Canadians who have a history of investing, not spending, their surplus cash.

*********************************

Interesting. And to the extent that some people used surplus cash to buy real estate that cash ended up in someone else’s bank account.

I have studied this closely and my understanding that higher debt automatically leads to higher deposits. One person borrows and they spend that money and if they buy a house the cash ends up on deposit in the seller’s account. And if they buy a car it ends up various business owner’s accounts. And if someone takes some cash to buy equities, the cash does not disappear from the banking system but ends up in some person or businesses’ account.

As you mention some cash goes to repaying debt and that does slower the amount of cash and savings in the system.

I am just looking at the financial statements of RBC in their personal and commercial business banking division. They show people (as a total group) have slightly more loans than deposits and businesses(at least their clients) have way more deposits than loans.

I think you are quite right the excess savings are held by the wealthy.

The concept of an average consumer does not work. No one is precisely average. Instead there is a huge dispersion. A ton of people with negative to little or no net savings. Some closer to the middle. A small number with massive net savings in actual cash.

A lot of cash held by businesses.

Actually, the bottom line is again it is easy credit for the masses that drives higher consumption. The masses (or at least an awful lot of them) have little of this excess cash. They spend their incomes. Then they spend some more on credit – unless someone turns off the credit tap.

No one is average. References to “THE Consumer” or THE taxpayer are dumb, they imply everyone is close to average. Completely wrong.

#74 Doug Ford the reta-rded gangster on 01.03.22 at 7:26 pm

DELETED

#75 the Jaguar on 01.03.22 at 7:32 pm

@#35 Sail Away on 01.03.22 at 5:12 pm——Buy a new car and drive it for 13-15 years. Works out better. Don’t buy Skippy’s ride.+++

Gracias mi amor, this is exactly what I have done and it has worked out rather well. Meticulous maintenance and I have always sold for 1/3 of the original purchase price. Always multiple hints from friends and aquaintances to buy the Jaguar’s vehicle. There is a certain pride of maintaining some assets in pristine condition that others understand and appreciate. It’s about values. Enough said.

Back to below zero temps here in Calgary. My recent escape to the beach is fading in the rearview mirror.
No biggie. Just need to redirect one’s attention to other warmer indoor issues until the next escape….

I am always reminded of 1967. Nostalgia, I suppose.

The Confederation Train for the Centennial Year arrived in Calgary and my two siblings and I were escorted to the 10th avenue S.W. location to await our turn to view the contents therein with our mother. Dead of winter and very, very cold

There was no ‘Gortex or Fleece’ in those days, and young ladies were expected to present as such which meant leotards and wool leggings if one was lucky.
The only time I have been colder was in Toronto, Queen Street, minus 15 degrees with ‘lake affect’ wind blowing through my bones. (can we talk dry cold versus wet cold?)

What a thrill it was to await entry into the train. As freezing as it was, I would not have traded my place in line if the devil himself had offered to take my place with whatever my heart’s desire might have been in those days. ( never mind). An exciting time for our country.

It was a great time to be alive. It still is.
A new year, new beginnings, so much ground to cover, so little time. Never mind all this doom and gloom about Covid. With three vaccinations in me, the blood of Vikings running through my veins, and without a doubt a seriously competent guardian angel behind me.

I say ” Where and what next?”. Bring it on.

#76 Satori on 01.03.22 at 7:33 pm

#6 Doug t on 01.03.22 at 3:51 pm
Next up – Doomicron – you can’t make this shite up, humans are a nasty blight on this rock and Mother Nature will bring balance back like a women/they/them/it scorned
_________________
Doug, that was Hilarious!!! like a women/they/them/it scorned! Worthy of stand-up comedy!!! LOL!!

#77 Nonplused on 01.03.22 at 7:36 pm

Leasing is the most expensive way to own a car, suitable primarily for a) people who can write it off as an expense and/or must drive a newer model for work, b) people who know themselves well enough to know they will be trading it in before it is paid off, and c) any car that runs on batteries (EV and hybrid).

The first 2 years are the most expensive to own any car, due to depreciation, which they bake into the lease. You will pay for half the car plus financing over those 2 years, as well as having mileage restrictions. And you still pay for regular maintenance, whether outright or baked into the lease. If the tranny drops out of the thing the warrantee covers it in both cases.

Batteries just plain wear out whether you use them or not so don’t own them.

There are people who must, for their own reasons, drive new cars no matter the cost. For those people leasing is perfect. But the payment never goes away.

I definitely would consider financing at today’s rates though. Just be careful of hidden fees.

————————————-

“Raging inflation is a child of the pandemic, or the expected post-pandemic recovery. The virus busted the supply chain, created a labour shortage and brought surging demand for stuff because services were restricted.”

Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena. It is caused in principle by any monetary policy that forces the central bank to increase their reserves in the form of government bonds. That is new money entering the system, which competes for goods and services no matter how the government spends it.

The pandemic can be blamed for causing governments to go hog wild with all sorts of new spending, but it didn’t have to be that way. But the government did shut down the economy so you can’t really tell people they can’t work and then not provide assistance. But that assistance came in the form of borrowed money, new money if you will, which means we will all pay for it through the dilution of purchasing power.

The supply chain problems are just as much a result of the inflation as a cause. Normally if prices rise due to supply problems people delay purchases or forgo discretionary purchases altogether. But not so if the government is pumping free money into your account.

———————————————–

“And 44% of all registered Republicans report being armed. Of those, 75 million voted for Donald Trump, who instigated a rebellious assault on the US capital exactly a year ago.”

Lots of democrats are armed as well. It’s not a republican thing. That said I put the odds of a US civil war at 0.00%. Not going to happen.

As for inciting an insurrection, well, if they find any evidence they’ll string him up, and everyone else involved. It’s not like they aren’t looking. No stone will be left unturned. But I guess we’ll see.

#78 cuke and tomato picker e on 01.03.22 at 7:46 pm

Number 52 you are right on. I grew up an 80 ft slap shot
from the U.S. in the South Okanagan and we did a lot of business with americans nothing but fun. Also owned recreation property on Lake Chelan Hills in Washington State wonderful memories. Our son worked in the BIG APPLE to get his business going now lives here in Victoria B.C. and consults american clients. They are more advanced in technology then we give them credit for.

#79 Yukon Elvis on 01.03.22 at 7:49 pm

#67 IHCTD9 on 01.03.22 at 6:51 pm

The USA has more naval power than the rest of the world *combined*. If they stopped all military development tomorrow, it would take 50+ years for the rest of the planet to catch up. The USA can project power. Russia and China cannot, except with nukes – but these are un-deployable weapons due to 110% mutually assured destruction.
++++++++++++++++++++
Bingo. And the US navy is the second largest air force in the world.

#80 fishman on 01.03.22 at 7:53 pm

Yes, this blog must move on from talking about whether Theresa Tam is an avatar or not. That will help me move on from my pathetic obsession with Theresa Tam’s laryngeal prominence.

#81 Observer on 01.03.22 at 8:01 pm

#57 RichardTO on 01.03.22 at 6:22 pm

Are you really that dumb? Wow.

#82 kommykim on 01.03.22 at 8:03 pm

RE: #42 RMTL on 01.03.22 at 5:36 pm
Hi Garth,
You have busted VBAL every time you had the chance lately.
Would you have any recommandation for the Mills that can’t (yet? ever?) afford your level of service and want minimum work on rebalancing ?

=======================================

I think Garth mostly dislikes VBAL because it’s fixed income portion contains too many long bonds. Instead you could buy something like VEQU for the equity portion and roll your own fixed income portion for the remaining 30-40% of your portfolio.
ZPR for preferreds
VSB for short bonds
etc…

#83 kommykim on 01.03.22 at 8:07 pm

Sorry, I meant VEQT and not VEQU.

#84 WTF on 01.03.22 at 8:13 pm

#56 Kirk “For me, this pandemic has exposed how poor our health care system is. I am very proud to be Canadian, but we may have to re-think the private option alongside public care.”
—————————————————————
30th best outcomes world wide. 15 systems disparate systems almost complete lack of electronic records. Wait lists, 400k leave to get treatment elsewhere annually.

No politician is going to touch this one. In fact they will fight it with your money.

https://add.albertadoctors.org/issues/january-february-2021/cambie-surgeries-corporation-vs-british-columbia-attorney-general/

Interesting to note that BC Gov did win this case BUT continues to allow this private surgical center to remain open…….because the wait lists in the public sector are legendary…..and growing.
While costs and wait times bloat and people suffer, politicians fiddle and tinker around the edges, Here in BC they (we) bought all the private MRI clinics so yes you can get a diagnosis but the pig in the python simply moves a little further down aaaand stops again.

We are a nation of deluded idiots. Putting up with wait lists and hallway wards. No point learning from what other countries are doing to improve delivery. IE France…or the other 28.

#85 Mattl on 01.03.22 at 8:16 pm

We buy used because it allows us to buy more vehicle. Current fleet was around 130K new and we are into them for around 60K. One actually appreciated during COVID due to rarity.

Allows us to drive luxury cards for Honda prices. Definitely some risk and you really need to understand what you are buying – modern used Euro luxury can be a value trap – but if you do your homework you can really do well.

Endlessly leasing sounds like a good way to burn through cash better utilized.

#86 Arjun Haknal on 01.03.22 at 8:17 pm

DELETED

#87 willworkforpickles on 01.03.22 at 8:17 pm

#67 IHCTD9
“The USA can project power. Russia and China cannot, except with nukes – but these are un-deployable weapons due to 110% mutually assured destruction”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

High tech trumps all US military might.
Advanced early warning and control system frequency & jamming device technology in enemy hands (will) render all US military might ineffective and our cities vulnerable to attack and nuclear annihilation.

This technological advantage will render the mutual destruction deterrent a non factor at the same time.

#88 Diamond Dog on 01.03.22 at 8:23 pm

#34 Dolce Vita on 01.03.22 at 5:11 pm

I appreciate your comments Dolce. I too, believe Omicron is a serious bug. I think (because I don’t know) that Omicron due to it’s 4 to 5x more contagious nature than Delta and the possibility that there may be little difference between the 2 in terms of severity in the unvaccinated crowd (I’m more than curious to peruse a large study out of the U.K. that hasn’t yet published) but all that said, the vaccination rate in the U.S. and Canada is high with 85.5% of the over 18+ crowd vaccinated in the U.S.:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total

Not sure about age spectrum here (that search might take a while), but it’s 77.27% in Canada and could be much higher if the numbers below don’t factor in the below age 18 numbers:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/canada_coronavirus_full_vaccination_rate

Outside of vaccinating and living as healthy as the majority know how, there isn’t much else we as individuals can do. Try to stay informed, understand just how contagious Omicron is and pitch in where we can right? January is going to be a rough month but the days will pass, Omicron will find less hosts and it will get easier.

I will remind, Omicron in mid November didn’t have a name. The world is still catching up with what limited data there is. We don’t know for certain what the comparisons are between Omicron vs Delta with the unvaccinated. We don’t know the percentage of breakthrough infections of the vaccinated but we know it’s high, possibly as high as 85%.

We do know Omicron has a far greater number of mutations than Delta, is 4 to 5x more contagious and that vaccines, while not doing so great at keeping people from getting sick, are keeping people from getting “as” sick and especially so at keeping us from developing pneumonia which is especially important to note, as it’s keeping ICU’s and morgues from over flowing. In short, without vaccines, we would be screwed.

We knew this or should know this, just as we know without vaccines to measles or chicken pox or the mumps and on and on, we would also be screwed, vaccines are not a bad thing here! There are adverse reactions? Sure, to small numbers. It’s risk vs reward. If the risk of pneumonia is much higher with the unvaccinated as opposed potential for serious side effects, it’s a no brainer get vaccinated, simple. Looking at vaccination rates, most people get it.

Looking ahead to next winter, presumably the world will be more in tune with getting vaccinated before flu season starts, like Sept-Oct with the most recent mutation updates. We can hope that Omicron will become less severe, but we don’t know this. That said, the tech will improve, vaccine delivery will improve, it will get better.

Otherwise, macroeconomic interests aside, it’s pretty straight forward what we as humans need to do regardless of what community we belong to (science, politics, economics/investment). Simply practice some virtues, be respectful to one another and help each other get through it.

Get vaccinated and continue to do so over time, put in the overtime when it’s called upon us to do it, be appreciative of what the science and political communities are doing to keep our systems working and simply pass the tests of character as they come.

#89 Shawn on 01.03.22 at 8:23 pm

Don’t bet against the USA

#52 I don’t know on 01.03.22 at 6:06 pm

Never bet against America. It was true in the 1770’s, 1860’s, 1920’s, 40’s, 60’s, 70’s, 2001, now, and for the foreseeable future. No country in our existence has ever had a system that channels the human spirit as well as America’s does. Add in perfect geography, and it’s simply unbeatable in any way.

***************************
An example: Canada will finally reopen for business tomorrow. We had three Stat holidays that almost everyone got. A ton of people got 7 week days off. Stats Can has not issued a “daily” update since December 23.

The U.S. (for example the stock exchange) got Friday Christmas Eve off and went back to work Monday while Canada got a day off for Christmas. Then Canada took Tuesday off for “Boxing Day” which no one even knows what that is. Then half the country including swarms of government workers said, what the heck let’s take the whole week off.

The U.S. stock exchange took NO break for New Year’s day while Canada took another day today.

Multiply this across the economy and it goes a ways to explaining the lower productivity in this country.

#90 Prince Polo on 01.03.22 at 8:28 pm

Dr. Garth, I love your VBAL bashing prescription!

#91 Ustabe on 01.03.22 at 8:35 pm

#63 Lake lover on 01.03.22 at 6:33 pm

Hi Garth…
…My question is what about a much older person (retired plus) who has the cash. Which option would be best for her for a new car?
Happy new year to you and Dorothy

Buy the vehicle they would want the son/daughter/grandson/granddaughter to have in the near future.

#92 VladTor on 01.03.22 at 8:39 pm

….We might need a wall.

************
Garth,
I believe in you as the top financial expert. But today you disappointed me. Minefield along the land border will be cheaper!!!!!

#93 DON on 01.03.22 at 8:44 pm

#87 willworkforpickles on 01.03.22 at 8:17 pm
#67 IHCTD9
“The USA can project power. Russia and China cannot, except with nukes – but these are un-deployable weapons due to 110% mutually assured destruction”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

High tech trumps all US military might.
Advanced early warning and control system frequency & jamming device technology in enemy hands (will) render all US military might ineffective and our cities vulnerable to attack and nuclear annihilation.

This technological advantage will render the mutual destruction deterrent a non factor at the same time.

************

Have the US publicly confirmed they have successfully tested a hypersonic missile or are the General’s appearing in shock of successful Chinese/Russian tests, in an effort to get more funding from congress aka ‘we are falling behind…we need more money’.

A good offense is a good defense…and a good defense is a good offense.

It is nice having the US as a neighbour.

#94 VladTor on 01.03.22 at 8:44 pm

No information about distance from Samantha house to her job. May be option d) – electrical bike is the best. She can charge battery at her job for free by the way.

#95 Yukon Elvis on 01.03.22 at 8:45 pm

#87 willworkforpickles on 01.03.22 at 8:17 pm
#67 IHCTD9
“The USA can project power. Russia and China cannot, except with nukes – but these are un-deployable weapons due to 110% mutually assured destruction”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

High tech trumps all US military might.
Advanced early warning and control system frequency & jamming device technology in enemy hands (will) render all US military might ineffective and our cities vulnerable to attack and nuclear annihilation.

This technological advantage will render the mutual destruction deterrent a non factor at the same time.
++++++++++++++++
When the Gulf war broke out in 1990 the US showed up with 60 or so F-111 stealth fighter jets that were unheard of and few people even knew they existed. The air war was over in one night. Then the bombing campaign began. The ground war was over in 100 hours. My point: The US does not advertise its capabilities like the Russians or the Chinese. Anything the Russians or Chinese have the Americans have as well. Probably more and better.They just don’t talk about it.

#96 VladTor on 01.03.22 at 8:53 pm

Options
a) Purchase the car outright with the money she has saved.
b) Finance the car. The dealership is offering a very low interest rate.

good enough too if she buying USED car.
Used car financing too.

This is probably best choice b’s
first – for young drivers too high insurance especially if car is new.
second – she may have problems with car and will learn how car parts working and how to find and use car mechanics.
third – she will understand which kind of car she really need using minimum money to buy first car.

#97 IHCTD9 on 01.03.22 at 8:56 pm

#87 willworkforpickles on 01.03.22 at 8:17 pm
#67 IHCTD9
“The USA can project power. Russia and China cannot, except with nukes – but these are un-deployable weapons due to 110% mutually assured destruction”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………

High tech trumps all US military might.
Advanced early warning and control system frequency & jamming device technology in enemy hands (will) render all US military might ineffective and our cities vulnerable to attack and nuclear annihilation.

This technological advantage will render the mutual destruction deterrent a non factor at the same time.
————

Early warning and jamming are Stone Age tech. We dismantled the DEW line in the 80’s. We have satellites (and more) for that today. Defence is what matters now, hence rail guns and lasers. It don’t matter that you know what’s incoming if you can’t stop it. All it allows you to do is return salvo before it’s too late. Every country on earth would have issues defending against a couple hundred incoming ICBM’s, hence mutually assured destruction will remain permanent fixture.

That’s why nukes will never be deployed, and the USA will be the world’s one and only superpower for a long time coming.

#98 BC Doc on 01.03.22 at 8:58 pm

BC home assessments are now out— provincial govt says my abode is worth 31% more than a year ago. So much for housing affordability here in the BC Interior.

Cars— I added a 2005 Honda Civic to my fleet a couple of months ago for $3,000. Standard transmission. It’s a beauty. I’m wondering if I would have been better off had I rented it though? :)

#99 Stone on 01.03.22 at 9:02 pm

#72 Drinking on 01.03.22 at 7:17 pm
#78 Ryan Lewenza

Been away for a few days; you know, like working??

For your post!
Groceries represent a portion of what we spend money on. Haven’t you seen things like TV and computer prices decline in recent years? Or how Zoom conference calls can replace expensive business traveling costs. You need to look at the full picture. And lastly you’re coming to Garth’s blog for info/content. If you don’t like what you’re reading you can go elsewhere. This isn’t a prison. – Ryan L
———————————————-
Ok, fair enough, but what you do not get is that I have been coming to Garths blog for up to date info for years, followed it, and have done ok, not going anywhere, we have agreed to disagree.
If you are just going to post charts that do not reflect on what is actually happening out there and pat yourself on the back for doing so, then perhaps you go elsewhere, nobody is forcing you to write this crap!!

———

That was extremely rude. You’re a visitor here like everyone else. You want stuff for free and then piss on those same people who provide it. Who do you think you are?

Bugger off, loser.

#100 Dogman01 on 01.03.22 at 9:14 pm

Why I quit the CBC article, largely the same reason so few trust them as a source anymore.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/tara-henley-why-i-quit-the-cbc

“To work at the CBC is to submit to job interviews that are not about qualifications or experience — but instead demand the parroting of orthodoxies, the demonstration of fealty to dogma.
It is to become less adversarial to government and corporations and more hostile to ordinary people with ideas that Twitter doesn’t like.

It is to endlessly document microaggressions but pay little attention to evictions; to spotlight company’s political platitudes but have little interest in wages or working conditions. It is to allow sweeping societal changes like lockdowns, vaccine mandates, and school closures to roll out — with little debate. To see billionaires amass extraordinary wealth and bureaucrats amass enormous power — with little scrutiny. And to watch the most vulnerable among us die of drug overdoses — with little comment.
It is to consent to the idea that a growing list of subjects are off the table, that dialogue itself can be harmful. That the big issues of our time are all already settled.
It is to capitulate to certainty, to shut down critical thinking, to stamp out curiosity. To keep one’s mouth shut, to not ask questions, to not rock the boat.

This, while the world burns.
How could good journalism possibly be done under such conditions? How could any of this possibly be healthy for society?”

#101 Taco Devil on 01.03.22 at 9:14 pm

Dolce Vita,

Did you get some weed to help you mellow after latest booster? Coz you’re like pretty nutty today.

You getting cabin fever from the lockdowns?

It’s not omnivores it’s omicron! That’s all that should be on your mind.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 9:25 pm

@#134 Lies and manipulation
“Remember the 6 and 11oclock news? Its a 24 /7 gong show now.
So much worthless info that doesn’t even apply to the majority.”

+++

Well.
The poor poor media have done it to themselves.
As the internet eats their lunch they breathlessly shout about the latest Covid count ( newsflash…its up), cut to commercial, or the latest politically incorrect outrage ( stupid people say stupid things), cut to commercial, the latest cute dog, cat, rabbit rescue story, cut to commercial.

The “News’ is now an interruption for…the commercials.
Increasingly irrelevant. Boring. Politically correct pablum spewed out at us “sinners” daily.

Don’t weep. Click to another channel.

#103 Who’s questioning? on 01.03.22 at 9:31 pm

I think at this point even the vaccinated are starting to wonder what is going on with our leaders.

I’m going to say 70% of vaccinated don’t agree with this lockdown in Ontario and Quebec. My guess.

#104 Steven Rowlandson on 01.03.22 at 9:31 pm

DELETED

#105 Drinking on 01.03.22 at 9:40 pm

#99 Stone

Nope, sticking to what I said; if you do not like it then piss off. I am getting tired of these people that rely on charts and do not understand on how many times people get ripped off at grocery stores, gas prices rise by 10 to 15 cents overnight, it just goes on and on. Of course this is not included in there fancy charts by wise asses that think they know it all. Just like CBC that reports on what it likes to report.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 9:51 pm

@# WTF

We are a nation of deluded idiots. Putting up with wait lists and hallway wards. No point learning from what other countries are doing to improve delivery. IE France…or the other 28.”

+++

No argument from me.
“Free” Medicare is a myth that we suckers have lapped up for decades.
As Canadian demographically age….the writing is on the wall.
Japan’s medicare system is creaking under the load of elderly patients.
Rapidly ageing Japan is instituting a new rule where people over the age of 75 that earn over a certain amount annually ( say $40k US ) will be required to pay 20% of their medical fees ( visits, medication, operations, ambulances, etc etc etc.).

Personally I wouldn’t have a problem with this if it would free up spaces.
Unfortunately it wont stop the idiots that run to their doctor every time they have gas or have a cough and are convinced its brain cancer.
I personally know of two couples who are endlessly in the doctors office for every ache and pain old age can give them. They have visited the doctor more times in one year than I have in 10.
All free. 90% probably unnecessary.
“Pay as you go” with a possible refund at the end of the tax year….?
Might stop the hypochondriacs from abusing the system.

#107 Albertaguy in AB on 01.04.22 at 12:09 am

The economics of car ownership…at least of 2nd car ownership

…fact most cars sit idle about 90% of the time
…depreciate 30% per year require insurance and maintenance
…do the math…you can take a lot of uber rides for that
…and you can rent for a week or two for long haul driving

So for a $40,000 car…

year 1 12,000 depreciation + ~5,000 (gas + insurance)
year 2 8,400 depreciation + ~5,000 (gas + insurance)
year 3 5,800 depreciation + ~5,000 (gas + insurance)

Not to mention parking, tickets, repairs, etc.

After year 3 the depreciation drops off but the maintenance starts to ratchet up

So the first 3 years of driving cost you $41,000.

Assume you actually need the car every day (unlikely) you could alternatively spend $37 every day on an uber or renting a vehicle when you need to go on holidays or road trip. When Elon unleashes his fleet of FSD taxis, the economics of NOT owning a car will even look more appealing.

#108 Rocco Lallone on 01.04.22 at 12:22 am

#51

Kirk, you should have purchased the S2000! I bought one in 2005 off of a 3-year lease for $23,000! Drove it for 15 years and sold it last year for $22,000!!!

#109 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 1:00 am

IHCTD9 and others…
” nukes will never be deployed, and the USA will be the world’s one and only superpower for a long time coming.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Nukes will be deployed and before this decade is out.
North American cities will be targeted.
It all comes down to debt and timing as the US becomes less able to fund ongoing cutting edge advanced high tech research and development projects.
Cutbacks due to overwhelming debt obligations are beginning.
US competitors/adversaries work tirelessly to gain advantage over all US defense systems .
I’m not talking about obsolete outdated early warning systems here.
All are cutting edge developments.
Advanced early warning cyber-systems can and will be hacked by existing teams that will always stay a step or two ahead of their competitors, even adversaries.
High tech (military) R&D cutbacks are just one casualty of many consequences the national exploding debt effect that’s coming will have leading up to the ultimate undoing and demise of the US.

#110 Farts in a jar on 01.04.22 at 1:05 am

Actual quote from a US media source “ when do we get to use the guns?” Civil war in the US unthinkable? There have been open calls on the left media to ‘eliminate’ opposing opinions. Think again. Millions of Americans are on the move towards states that fly their ‘color’. In Canada that would be between a minority of people who fly the Woke Maple at half mast vs the majority Proud and High. Never say never. Remember Justin Trudeau saying “ I’ll replace you with those who deserve the country”. Is it me or does that sound a little hostile?

The “popular vote” might begin to mean something if enough citizens begin to question Gerry Butts ‘ super genius’ seat manipulations that keep the minority in power.

I’ve waited for the ‘woke arc’ of the irrational left to start swinging back. For a while I’ve been entertained with infighting and varied leftist screamers beginning to cannibalize each other’s causes. Here’s an example.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/tara-henley-why-i-quit-the-cbc

And sorry, I don’t believe that the current wave of inflation has been caused by Covid. Current inflation is a direct result of a far left ideology in Ottawa that printing and spending money you don’t have will buy votes. The current trillion dollar debt and huge debits were being run up years before Covid arrived on our shores.

#111 Jane24 on 01.04.22 at 3:41 am

Britain is 6 to 8 weeks ahead of Canada in the omicron game and despite 150,000 cases here a day we do seem to have peaked. Numbers are turning. The next 2 weeks will be tough here with over a million currently isolating so no-one at work but the wave does seem to be fast up and then hopefully fast down. The English govt decision to close nothing and just keep on with normal life, just masks in shops and passports at nightclubs may indeed pay off. We will now for sure in a week but it looks like normal life by late February. WFH will stay though, so much cheaper for the employer.

#112 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.04.22 at 5:27 am

THE RICH DON’T CARE

So were locked out of work again. Are we suppose to starve now? How do we pay for food and rent?

#113 D Apostrophe on 01.04.22 at 7:45 am

I think it would be wise to bet on an armed conflict in the US.. with the flashpoint being when the law goes to retrieve any of the Trumps. They will most likely employ ‘shock forces’ (section 8s and other drug addled former law enforcement/military rejects who will create chaos). If you think it’s not gonna happen.. you don’t know Americans at all, nor have you seen your local Chevron lit up by a few guys that needed 20 bucks real bad. I’m sure Canada’s military shares my views. If conflict lasts even for a few weeks., world markets will be roiled and our ‘balance of power’ will be realigned.

#114 Brett in Calgary on 01.04.22 at 7:57 am

“Shattering any of this would be epochal… That’s no answer, Brian, because there is no viable defence. ”

Thanks Garth. To me this just affirms your honesty with investing. If only the odd Re-Max guy/gal could admit that ‘housing could crash’ the world would be farther ahead. #honesty

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 8:13 am

@#100 Dogma01
“How could good journalism possibly be done under such conditions?”

+++

The CBC and “good journalism” in the same sentence?
Wash your mouth out with soap.

The cBc is the best example of what happens when govt bureaucracy, political correctness and a soapbox are allowed to cohabitate.

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 8:20 am

@#110 Medicine jar
“Remember Justin Trudeau saying “ I’ll replace you with those who deserve the country”. ”

+++
I don’t.
When, where and what context did little potato say that?

#117 Steven Rowlandson on 01.04.22 at 8:54 am

Well Hungry Bear the rich don’t care about your well being. Or mine for that matter. If you can’t survive on your own resources they would be pleased if you passed away as it reduces their tax and pay roll expenses and the revolt risk.
Ebeneazer Scrooge would be proud of them.

#118 Paleo Boomer Still Using A BlackBerry on 01.04.22 at 9:05 am

Oh, no!

My BlackBerry will be out of service today.

I will have to go back to sending letters by Canada Post.

Thanks for NOTHING, useless millenials!

#119 Tripp on 01.04.22 at 9:14 am

#95 Yukon Elvis on 01.03.22 at 8:45 pm

Elvis, I guess you meant F-117 Nighthawk, and not F-111 Aardvark, introduced in the late ‘60s. And the F-117 didn’t actually win the air battle, being a ground-attack plane, in spite of it’s nickname “stealth fighter”.

#120 George S on 01.04.22 at 9:48 am

Having owned everything from free to brand new vehicles over the years including a $10, $750, $3000, $4000 used vehicle, my opinion is that you should get the vehicle you need and nothing more. A $100 set of chains or cables turns a 2 wheel drive vehicle into an ATV (providing you have enough clearance) for the one or two times when you actually need 4WD during the life of the vehicle.
There are all sorts of hidden costs with a new vehicle. The one that we bought depreciated at about 2/3 of the rate of our payments. Some vehicles require huge routine maintenance up to $1000 per year if you drive them a lot.

The catch is that if you really need to have a reliable vehicle that won’t leave you stranded because you have to commute 100 km a day then you don’t have very many options. If you ride your bike to work all year round you can get by with a “clunker” if you have to drive you need a good car.
A friend of mine who lives 25 km away from work out in the country drove a Corolla for years no matter what the road conditions. He was an exact example of someone that you would expect to drive an F350 off road special 4WD, he drove over crappy, sort of gravelled not even secondary roads for part of his commute and never had a problem.
A lot depends on you abilities and tolerance level for vehicle failures and your ability to do repairs in the field.

Advertising is specially designed to make you think that you need something and vehicle advertising is the worst of the lot.

It is really fun to tow a stuck 4wd truck off the ice road on a lake with your old Crown Victoria with chains on.

#121 Ford is DONE! on 01.04.22 at 10:40 am

I think Ford has sealed his future with this Ontario lockdown.

He’s done.

No chance he’s getting re-elected.

Here come the Liberals to rule Ontario. I’m sure they’ll be on the up-and-up and always.

#122 leebow on 01.04.22 at 10:43 am

#113 D Apostrophe

People are subject to recency bias. We could be already living through the 2nd US civil war. It’s a recurring theme in history – people don’t realize that a revolution/coup or civil war is already ongoing.

In case of Trump’s arrest I would expect terrorist attacks. All the information is available – connections of Trump, Mogilevich, Orban, Dietmar Clodo, Putin, and Putin’s propensity to use terror to achieve political objectives. It’s not a part of public knowledge, but the information there.

I have reasons to believe that the current understanding of the situation by the US elite circles back to mid 40-s – X Article/Long Telegram. We’ll see if they have courage to act.

#123 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 10:44 am

#120 George S on 01.04.22 at 9:48 am

It is really fun to tow a stuck 4wd truck off the ice road on a lake with your old Crown Victoria with chains on.

———-

Wrk.Dover would tow it out with a Spanish windlass powered by three beavers and a sail.

#124 Reality Check on 01.04.22 at 10:48 am

#118 Paleo Boomer Still Using A BlackBerry

Stop by, I have an extra mid 90s Nokia phone for you.

Cheap. Good for calls. No data needed.

Come to think of it, what are people paying for exactly when they get data on their smart phones?

Think about it.
– Social Media feeds?
– MSM non-bias reporting?
– Advertising?
– Auto-play video advertising?
– Apps that spy on you? Scan your photos and contacts?
– Apps that track you? GPS/Location/movements?
– Apps that real time listen and watch you?

I estimated that full 60% of my data usage was adverts. Text I want to consume in reader mode takes many megabytes of data to load all the advert associated junk.
30% of your data use is on this spying/listening/sending your info out to these app makers. The remaining 10% is what you actually want.

90% garbage to get 10% of what you want? NO THANKS!

It is fascinating that people pay for. Actual data services to be spammed to. Amazing.

Dump it. Use this BlackBerry opportunity to roll back even further and go back to JUST A PHONE.

F all this Big Tech garbage.

#125 Yukon Elvis on 01.04.22 at 11:06 am

#119 Tripp on 01.04.22 at 9:14 am
#95 Yukon Elvis on 01.03.22 at 8:45 pm

Elvis, I guess you meant F-117 Nighthawk, and not F-111 Aardvark, introduced in the late ‘60s. And the F-117 didn’t actually win the air battle, being a ground-attack plane, in spite of it’s nickname “stealth fighter”.
+++++++++++++++++++
Right you are. I meant the F-117 Nighthawk which destroyed the radars and airfields and command and control on the first night and gave the coalition air superiority. It was called a stealth fighter but it had no guns or missiles and was actually a bomber. With the radars gone the air force had immediate air superiority and was able to fly and bomb at will after the first night of the war.

#126 Wrk.dover on 01.04.22 at 11:12 am

#120 George S on 01.04.22 at 9:48 am
A $100 set of chains or cables turns a 2 wheel drive vehicle into an ATV (providing you have enough clearance) for the one or two times when you actually need 4WD during the life of the vehicle.
____________________________________

A 4X4 with license plates is vain.

Mine has been without them or a brake pedal for 39 years.

#127 Shawn on 01.04.22 at 11:19 am

Buy outright, lease or Finance

I was involved in a truck purchase that a family member made. Leasing was better than Finance for this case because the whole deal was exactly the same except:

1. A modestly higher interest rate on lease as opposed to finance and buy.

2. You get the OPTION but not the obligation to turn in the vehicle for a set price after three years.

EVERYTHING else including maintenance was exactly the same.

More importantly:

We saved about 10% or over $5,000 by going through CarcostCanada (A paid service) as a local dealer saw our inquiry and bid against the other dealer that was giving us a high price.

As far as buy it outright versus finance/lease. I think there are too many personal variables to be in favor of one or the other. But at least 90% of those buying do not have basically idle cash sitting around and so it is a moot point.

As I have been saying, if the availability of super cheap financing and leasing rates dries up, then vehicle sales and overall economic growth will slow.

#128 Cici on 01.04.22 at 11:23 am

Québec government’s coming down hard on the non-vaccinated, who no longer have the right to buy pot or alcohol:

https://www.journaldequebec.com/2022/01/04/passeport-vaccinal-obligatoire-pour-entrer-a-la-saq-et-a-la-sqdc

While I appreciate what they are trying to do (get more people vaccinated to alleviate the hospitals so people who need surgeries and chemo can actually have access to treatment), I fear most of that crowd will just turn to the black market and become more reactionary. So, like the Americans, we can probably expect more political strife on our own turf in the coming months.

#129 Shawn on 01.04.22 at 11:35 am

Healthcare = Cannabis?

In Canada, on the stock exchange, the healthcare sector is dominated by Cannabis companies.

This as we enter the third year of a health care crisis that shows how badly we need more capacity in healthcare.

Putting Cannabis in the health care sector is an embarrassment. It should be in some other category. Casino, entertainment, Consumer Regrettable? Yes, I understand that some of the Cannabis consumption is in fact for health issues – I’d guess a tiny portion.

Also, very little in the health care sector is publicly traded. Most is government and there is also a huge amount of private non-publicly traded health care companies – dentists, opticians, physio, chiro, Phycology, lab tests – very little publicly traded. This will change over time.

#130 Satori on 01.04.22 at 11:37 am

I would say lease if you have a business, write it off.

If you buy, buy a fairly new diesel. A few years old. The Re-sale value is better… but tell her it’s still a liability.

I would want my daughter driving a fairly new and safe car. And would encourage her to buy a car that has “good crash ratings”. A Honda slid into me on the ice once, my little car was stellar, small scratch…. the Honda’s hood was shoved up into the windshield. Even the Honda owner was shocked.

Safety First.

#131 Linda on 01.04.22 at 11:53 am

#51 ‘Kurt’ – agree on the Honda Fit! Sadly Honda discontinued that model. Re: the buy vs. lease, due to Covid supply chain disruptions those with cars can actually sell them for a lot more than they might get normally. Recent service for our Honda Fit we were deluged with offers from the dealership to sell our vehicle to them & ‘upgrade’ to a new Honda. Of course, they had extremely limited stock & all of it on the very high end. We declined – as my partner put it, ‘If this car is in such high demand it must be good’. We did do a quick search. Average selling price for a comparable model year (2016) & kilometers was selling for over $16K. We paid roughly $18K new, so I’d say depreciation is pretty low!

#132 IHCTD9 on 01.04.22 at 12:00 pm

#109 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 1:00 am
IHCTD9 and others…
” nukes will never be deployed, and the USA will be the world’s one and only superpower for a long time coming.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Nukes will be deployed and before this decade is out.
North American cities will be targeted.
It all comes down to debt and timing as the US becomes less able to fund ongoing cutting edge advanced high tech research and development projects.
Cutbacks due to overwhelming debt obligations are beginning.
US competitors/adversaries work tirelessly to gain advantage over all US defense systems .
I’m not talking about obsolete outdated early warning systems here.
All are cutting edge developments.
Advanced early warning cyber-systems can and will be hacked by existing teams that will always stay a step or two ahead of their competitors, even adversaries.
High tech (military) R&D cutbacks are just one casualty of many consequences the national exploding debt effect that’s coming will have leading up to the ultimate undoing and demise of the US.
_____

No country is ever going to launch an unanswered nuclear assault on any advanced military nation. The US has Subs that can single handedly destroy small countries. The USA has (at least) 18 of them, and each one carries 24 warheads. No one is going to nuke the USA without getting nuked themselves. Beyond that – the USA can launch from many, many foreign land bases all over the world. This is what any real superpower can do.

You can take that to the bank, no one will try to nuke the USA any time soon. It’s suicide. Anyone that does will have warheads coming at them from land, sea, air, and from every direction. On top of that. the US can intercept ICBM’s from land or sea, so they’d have an even chance of knocking many of them down.

#133 UCC on 01.04.22 at 12:29 pm

Lease the car since (a)you don’t have to pay the entire HST upfront (b)you know what the car is worth on the return date, (c) 300K will get you 1K/month vehicle without loosing capital…..

Sure you can buy a used car and drive until it dies for less, but why?

#134 KLNR on 01.04.22 at 12:30 pm

@#109 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 1:00 am
IHCTD9 and others…
” nukes will never be deployed, and the USA will be the world’s one and only superpower for a long time coming.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Nukes will be deployed and before this decade is out.
North American cities will be targeted.
It all comes down to debt and timing as the US becomes less able to fund ongoing cutting edge advanced high tech research and development projects.
Cutbacks due to overwhelming debt obligations are beginning.
US competitors/adversaries work tirelessly to gain advantage over all US defense systems .
I’m not talking about obsolete outdated early warning systems here.
All are cutting edge developments.
Advanced early warning cyber-systems can and will be hacked by existing teams that will always stay a step or two ahead of their competitors, even adversaries.
High tech (military) R&D cutbacks are just one casualty of many consequences the national exploding debt effect that’s coming will have leading up to the ultimate undoing and demise of the US.

LOL.

#135 dragonfly58 on 01.04.22 at 12:31 pm

So much in the world boils down to inequality. As inequality increases in a given country, the risk that the tipping point will be reached and ultimately the wheels come off the bus increases.
History serves to teach us this is an almost universal truth.
Good government is one of the few things that can save us from ourselves.
Things are looking a bit bleak for us little Beavers. Not as individuals, Garth has our backs on that front, but rather the whole game we are playing.

#136 KLNR on 01.04.22 at 12:32 pm

@#113 D Apostrophe on 01.04.22 at 7:45 am
I think it would be wise to bet on an armed conflict in the US.. with the flashpoint being when the law goes to retrieve any of the Trumps. They will most likely employ ‘shock forces’ (section 8s and other drug addled former law enforcement/military rejects who will create chaos). If you think it’s not gonna happen.. you don’t know Americans at all, nor have you seen your local Chevron lit up by a few guys that needed 20 bucks real bad. I’m sure Canada’s military shares my views. If conflict lasts even for a few weeks., world markets will be roiled and our ‘balance of power’ will be realigned.

doesn’t matter how much some of you dopes dream of civil war in america, it ain’t happening lol.

#137 Dirty Dan on 01.04.22 at 12:46 pm

Civil war in the world’s largest economy, with the fiercest military is unthinkable. Worse, there are 121 guns in circulation for every hundred Americans. Over 18 million new firearms were purchased in 2021. And 44% of all registered Republicans report being armed. Of those, 75 million voted for Donald Trump, who instigated a rebellious assault on the US capital exactly a year ago.

I guess your next click bait article will be about how dumb Trumpers are because all of these “armed” individuals “forgot” to bring their guns to a planned assault.

This website is turning to political trash.

Feel free to refute any factual information in those sentences. Oh, and did Trump actually win the election? – Garth

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.04.22 at 12:47 pm

The communist investors want their money!

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/evergrande-return-our-money-investors-protest-office-chinese-developer-2022-01-04/

What does happen to the leaders of Evergrande when this all blows up?
$300 Billion in liabilities.
A bullet in the back of the head and an invoice sent to the immediate relatives?

#139 Sail Away on 01.04.22 at 1:22 pm

Re: US Civil War #2

I have some logistical questions about this imminent US Civil War:

1. Should the Rebellers quit their jobs, or do this on their own time after work and weekends?
2. Keep up mortgage, car, TV, assault rifle finance payments, or stop?
3. If stopping #2 and someone comes to repossess the unpaid items, should they be shot? Same for cable, water, electrical shutoff service people?
4. What data plan is needed for the secret Rebel base? What employee plan? Unions? Pension? Salary? Perks?

So many questions before we even get the civil warring started.

#140 Dragonslayer on 01.04.22 at 2:06 pm

A car is just a means to get you from point A to point B.

The sweet spot is a 2-3 year old car, probably something like a Honda Civic or Fit, or even a Mazda 3.

Baby that sucker and the second the warranty runs out, start doing your own maintenance. Youtube is your friend and it’s amazing what you can do yourself and how much money you’ll save. Chris Fixx and South Main Auto are a gold mine of info.

#141 Faron on 01.04.22 at 2:09 pm

Civil war? No. What is actually happening in the US will take and last longer, be more pernicious including death, and will lack any kind of definitive end with treaties, speeches or suchlike. Plenty of economic dependence on an elite class (massive wealth disparity) but less and less social cohesion. A general withering of democratic process, gentle rise of authoritarianism leading to a semi-functional 2nd world entity where wealth is very efficiently skimmed off the working classes and where a democracy like today’s would be manna from on high. Basically, El Salvador.

Happy New Year.

#142 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 2:23 pm

Civil War? No.
Meltdown and Anarchy?…Absolutely, in the latter part of the decade.

#143 millmech on 01.04.22 at 2:38 pm

#128 Cici
I wonder how many alcoholics are going to go into withdrawals and pass away because of this. So much for having “rights”.
Here in Bc addiction is a “medical” issue now, would you with hold a diabetics insulin, dialysis for a person in kidney failure, a heart patients meds now , is this the road we are now heading down, we have sunk so low.
Camps for the unvaxxed are the next progression, I will put money on it. All for the greater good!
History does not repeat but it sure rhymes.

#144 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 2:49 pm

# 132 IHCTD9
“No country is ever going to launch an unanswered nuclear assault on any advanced military nation. The US has Subs that can single handedly destroy small countries. The USA has (at least) 18 of them, and each one carries 24 warheads. No one is going to nuke the USA without getting nuked themselves.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………

The US as all will be made aware of in several years time will become the great formidable force of yesterday.
Too soon to be debatable now, but not too far off either.

#145 WTF on 01.04.22 at 2:54 pm

#137 Dim Dannyboy “I guess your next click bait article will be about how dumb Trumpers are because all of these “armed” individuals “forgot” to bring their guns to a planned assault.”

—————————————————————–

This seems accurate. Change my mind.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalHumor/comments/rvxuce/but_if_youre_in_a_cult_it_may_make_senseso/

#146 Dimer on 01.04.22 at 3:31 pm

So Dr. Garth, if not VBAL, what is the one etf portfolio that’s rounded enough for an RESP (to not waste too much investing energy.)

#147 protea on 01.04.22 at 3:40 pm

#72 Drinking on 01.03.22 at 7:17 p
Suggest you disappear into a giant hole. I didn’t appreciate your ugly tone and lack of appreciation of what Garth & associates bring to this informative blog.

I also have benefitted from the free advice given so suggest we see the last of you.

#148 willworkforpickles on 01.04.22 at 3:51 pm

The US will no longer dominate the future of high tech warfare.
China (among others) far outpace US R&D funding rates by nearly 10 times and will only pick up speed while US funding retreats.
Technological advances around the globe are doubling every 18 months.
2.5 quintillion bytes of data are now generated daily.
AI alone will replace around 95 million jobs in the US by
2025.
And that’s not even scratching the surface.
The sun is setting on the once great USofA.
Those who ignore the writing on the wall will be least able to survive it.

#149 Farts in a jar on 01.04.22 at 9:30 pm

#126 Crowded. Defend your Trudeau said that he finds it offensive that a country would be have been settled by White Europeans and he will replace them, on July 16 2018. As usual to a crowd of Liberal extremist partisans.

#150 Midnights on 01.04.22 at 10:37 pm

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