Two & counting

On the first day of the year, my suspender-flipping portfolio manager bud told you what he expects in 2022. A gush of consumer spending. P/E ratios improving. Economic growth. Higher rates and more volatility but, basically, an abundance of ponies and puppies. (He had the charts to prove it. Don’t ever argue with a chart.)

Agreed. Equity markets will likely see a lot of new, new highs. Investors will do just fine. Stay the course. Don’t be a cowboy. Eschew crypto. Expect a correction. Maybe two. But be confident, because the post-pandemic reopening trade has years to go.

However, most of us are not investors. We’re homeowners. RRSP contributions have been going down and household debt’s been rising. Should we worry about that? Could this flip and take down the Canadian economy?

First the bad news.

Only four times in history (say Zoocasa’s stats) has the national inventory of houses for sale dropped below the two-month mark. All four of those times was in 2021. Not good.

Houses are eating the economy. In 2000 investment in residential real estate accounted for 22% of it. Ten years later that rose to 29%. Now it’s 42%. Let’s compare with Ireland, where the real estate market crumbled into an scary economy-sucking crisis after the ratio touched 43%. Now, after the collapse in Irish house prices, the number is just 5%. Will we learn?

Omicron. It’s everywhere. Two days ago governments gave up, withdrawing easy-to-obtain testing, halting accurate infection counts, allowing schools to stay open despite outbreaks, hacking the quarantine period and even allowing sick health care workers into the workplace. Shocking. Politicians failed to see this coming and are powerless to stop the tide. As this relates to real estate, says LePage boss Phil Soper: (a) the central bank will delay raising rates as a result and (b) more Covid will cause extra demand for residential real estate.

So, put it together. More buyers than houses for sale. More virus feeding the nesting urge. Runaway infections causing the CB to take its foot off the brake and delay rate hikes. A surge of YOLO and FOMO-addled Millennial buyers rushing into mortgages in Q1 of ’22 to avoid high home loan costs. Fatter prices and more debt. The realtors forecast a hike of 8-10% in values by year’s end. The average property in Canada will command, they say, $860,000. (Detacheds in YVR will be about $1.9 million and in the GTA, almost $1.6 million.)

Of course, the average family cannot afford the average house, without huge debt and cash flow sacrifice. RBC says affordability is at a 31-year low. In Vancouver it takes 64% of a family’s pre-tax income to own (even with a robust down payment). In Toronto it’s 62%. This leaves crumbs for the rest of life – frivolities like food and shoes.

The good news?

Okay, so I agree with my colleague Ryan about 2022, and beyond. People with highly diversified and carefully-balanced portfolios who intelligently mitigate taxes and use a blend of registered and non-registered accounts will be peachy. Carry on. The global economy will continue to crawl out of pandemic mode, and you’ll benefit from that. The strategies this blog has yammered on about for years will continue to protect and advance you.

But, man, can anyone reasonably expect little Canada to escape a housing reckoning of some kind? Once the Fed and other central banks start their tightening cycles (and that’s coming, without fail and despite Omicron), our guys will not be able to stand apart. People who borrowed at 2% in 2020 will surely feel it upon renewal. Meanwhile, once the nation is forced to address its trillion-dollar national debt, taxes must rise. Inflation will continue to be a challenge as global growth resumes and commodity prices rise with demand. And a social disruption is coming as RTW crashes into Millennial resistance and mass migration to the uncommutable hinterland.

Worse, outsized demand for properties by investors – not folks who will live there – has pushed prices higher, muscled out first-timers and cemented residential real estate as a financial asset. Anytime the speckers turn out in force (GameStop, crypto, condos) it’s far better to be a seller than a buyer.

Moreover, the same politicians now proving their inability to contain a two-year-old pandemic are about to make the potential disturbing real estate outcome more inevitable. We saw what the 2021 federal election yielded – buyer incentives and real estate taxes coming this spring, but no new housing supply. In a few months Ontario is about to do the same. Sadly, real estate is starting to pull us apart. Three provinces have legislation penalizing people from elsewhere in the country who buy residences there. Who would have thought that bungalows and backsplits could balkanize us?

Day two of ’22. Let’s hope I’m wrong. But don’t bet the farm on it.

About the picture: “I’m a big fan of your blog, wish I found it earlier in my life but have been reading it avidly since finding it,” writes Colin. “This is our golden retriever, Loki, who is 2 years old and has been the best thing that has happened to my wife and me. I am currently completing family medicine residency in Maine and will be starting work in Nova Scotia in August.”

137 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.02.22 at 1:40 pm

Supply chain. It could hit again in a few weeks time. The new “mandates” for cross border truck traffic go into effect. Trucking association has suggested up to a quarter of drivers will be affected.
(Is this why we have been trained, for the past 17 months, in lining up outside of stores here in Kanada?)

“You don’t know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the U.S.
Back in the U.S.
Back in the U.S.S.R.”


— War on Small Business. Yep Permanent Rolling Economic lockdowns – we gonna need a UBI right?.

https://twitter.com/brianlilley/status/1477508028781969411
Brian Lilley @brianlilley Political columnist for the Toronto Sun “Ontario back to Step 2? Hearing that’s what some on the health side are pushing
@fordnation to adopt. Non-stop chatter about a cabinet meeting Sunday. Step 2 would keep schools open, close indoor dining, put non-essential retail at 25% plus lots more.

–Life in North Kanada – Comrade do not let your prefecture’s Block Captain catch you outside.

“People in Montreal, Quebec, Canada still outside 4 minutes before the mandatory 10pm curfew begins.
Police on speaker telling people to get home or expect fines.”
https://twitter.com/TheMarieOakes/status/1477475145094774793

— All the old culture must go Comrade.

https://westernstandardonline.com/2022/01/quebec-2022-is-a-surreal-scene/
“Quebec 2022 is a surreal scene. In neighborhood rinks across the province, outdoor hockey goals have been chained together to prevent people from playing games on the ice.”

#2 some guy on 01.02.22 at 1:45 pm

Our politicians and their misguided policies are a reflection of Canadian culture. I think we have collectively lost our minds and the real-estate problem is now unfixable. It’s hard to be optimistic about Canada but I also hope I’m wrong.

#3 Taco Devil on 01.02.22 at 2:02 pm

First, this quarter is when businesses start folding. Debts come due. $191k average. Look at all these closings already. For lease everywhere. See all that real estate in Yorkville? Flagship store locations empty. Restaurants just had their holidays crushed. No parties. No New Years. No office parties. Ouch. Survive another year? Half won’t, if not more.

Second, that China RE Syndrome is apparently going to get interesting. Tens of billions in bonds due CQ1, same CQ2. So far it’s been an appetizer.

All this left over inventory in ports and on ships. All this inventory that didn’t land for Christmas. Wonder what will happen to it? Clearance? Dump? Used to claim inflation eased?

Omicron? Good job leaders. I still need my QR code as of the 4th? For what? I need tests to fly? Why? Sniffles won. It was always going to. You mess with nature, it’s what happens. She wins.

#4 Justin Flation on 01.02.22 at 2:05 pm

Don’t worry Canada! I’m here to save the day, inflating your debts away!

$20 loaves of bread, $4M houses, and a yuge increases to minimum wages!

#5 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 2:09 pm

Is Realtor bashing back on?
Well I start.
I’m hearing that a record number of people are taking up the honourable profession of Realtor.
No wonder McDonalds can’t find any workers.
So, the same people who once flipped burgers, will now help you flip your downtown condo.
What can go wrong?

#6 Quintilian on 01.02.22 at 2:11 pm

“The realtors forecast a hike of 8-10% in values by year’s end.”

They are wrong, it will likely be 20-30% jump.

This is a bubble and there are no limiting mechanisms to put the brakes on price increases.

Puny interest rate teasing hikes will actually usher in new dupes to the eventual slaughter caused by the massive and unsustainable prices.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#7 Satori on 01.02.22 at 2:22 pm

Yikes! Vancouver downtown is not the same, in the past three years the homelessness is not just on Hastings, it’s on Robson, with 3 for lease signs to every one business. It’s basically a dump. Downtown full of yelling profanity homeless, and camping up and down the once beautiful street.

#8 Sail Away on 01.02.22 at 2:29 pm

House prices are definitely in for a reckoning because, in Canada, in comparison to our southern neighbour:

1. House prices are significantly higher for equivalent product
2. Wages are significantly lower
3. Taxes are significantly higher
4. National per capita GDP is significantly lower as a long term trend

Sometimes things don’t make sense for longer than expected, but eventually they revert to making sense. Or, it can take a while for the scales to recalibrate but it eventually happens. When? Who knows? But it’ll happen. Appropriately: get your house in order.

#9 I don’t know on 01.02.22 at 2:30 pm

Our host is definitely not wrong. Canadian real estate will correct at some point. No crash like some hope for, but a slight dip in prices. And temporary. This will be more pronounced in far off places where prices have seen big increases, mostly pandemic driven, relative to what their economies can support.

The single family detached in the GTA with dirt?

No. Not a chance.

There just isn’t the inventory and never will be given many immutable factors that exist (population growth, demographic trends, desire for city living, zoning laws, smaller households, cost of building materials, innate desire for space, innate desire for hard assets, policy incentives, cultural bias towards real estate investment, continued inflation, financialization of houses, move up buyers from condos, etc.).

Unlike far away lands that have seen much speculation, the GTA does have the economy to support prices in the SFD domain. 30% year over year gains are unlikely, but a continued steady march upwards is the reality for the SFD. Most first world industrial states around the world went through this decades ago. The average person cannot afford real estate in large cities and renting is seen as a good option. We are just catching up. Quality real estate in developing countries is reserved for a select few.

The mantra to buy dirt in a good area as soon as one is able (without destroying family finances) is absolutely true and will never change.

The average person’s best bet to keep up will also always be the balanced and diversified portfolio. The world became highly financialized post 2008. Acquiring assets will ensure the average person has a chance (and often actually do better than real estate).

#10 Arm chair economist on 01.02.22 at 2:34 pm

Checked rental properties on line in Victoria bc area yesterday. For a family wanting 3 bdrm or more, they are looking at $3,500-$4,000 per month as a start. That is out to lunch for most families. Victoria is nice, but not that nice. No wonder families are fleeing to lower cost areas of the country.

#11 Last Person Standing on 01.02.22 at 2:35 pm

Musical chairs. We’ve all played that game as children. Round and round we go and when the music stops everyone runs for a chair. And those that don’t get a chair are done. Kind of like The not too distant future for Canadian real estate. When the feds turn off the money supply then all those investors and flippers and do it yourself renovators run to exit and sell hoping for a greater fool to come along. As in musical chairs this will not end well for many of the players as the supply demand paradigm changes.

#12 Linda Smith on 01.02.22 at 2:40 pm

Toronto real estate is the future
Stocks are good but Toronto real estate is better

I wanted to trade Toronto real estate but got confused by the fluctuations in price

That won’t bother you if you trade with a professional like Expert Brad Lamb

I heard that he’s strategies are really good

#13 B on 01.02.22 at 2:47 pm

I’m Irish and was living in Dublin in 08 / 09. It was a big crash and lots of highly leveraged amateur landlords did in fact go under at the time. House prices have since recovered however and are now higher than ever! The key to housing now representing less GDP over there has been the influx of high paying tech and business jobs, attracted initially by scandalously low corp tax rates and more recently by Brexit. You need high paying private sector jobs to sustain demand at a certain point, and I dont see enough of those around here!

#14 Prince Polo on 01.02.22 at 2:50 pm

Well, at least one reason to not hate my pathetic generation:

“The biggest reason to stay bullish is because of millennials,” Lee explained, noting that stocks boomed when Baby Boomers and Generation X entered the age range of 30 to 50 years old. He said the S&P 500 could surge to 19,349 by 2029.

Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-19000-upside-2029-fundstrat-millennials-2021-12

Ok, now back to hating all the FOMO-froth’d lemmings for ruining moderate real estate ownership.

#15 millmech on 01.02.22 at 2:55 pm

Every time there is talk of raising rates, even a whisper something “new” comes along that stops the CB from raising rates. It will not happen for years, I bet the next one will be the uncertainty of the Chinese housing market/possible armed conflict in the Ukraine. Might even be another group of unarmed hooligans staging a “coup” in the US.
Here I thought Covid was so deadly you could not leave your residence and must quarantined for 14 days because of its lethality. Heck in Quebec after dark the virus is like a vampire and morphs into something worse so people must be kept indoors and safe. Watch cloves of garlic and crucifixes become the new defense against this insidious scourge.

#16 Pandemic on 01.02.22 at 2:56 pm

You guys seeing this Bills game?

See the packed stadium?

Only masks I see are scarfs to stay warm.

Guess Buffalo fans are insta-vaccinated against Omicron with tables they crushed in the parking lot?

#17 Feds on 01.02.22 at 2:57 pm

Just want to make sure I’m doing the math right, but 64% of pretax income to buy a house in Vancouver has to be really close to 100% of after tax income doesn’t it?

#18 Toronto on 01.02.22 at 2:59 pm

#7 Satori

Dude, Toronto! What a dump too! I walked a loop of Bloor, Yonge, Queen, Dufferin yesterday. My goodness.

All those houses south of Eglinton, St. Clair, Mt. Pleasant – surrounde by homeless and underpasses and parks filled with oxy addicts. Can’t go for a walk without depressing sights. No wonder few of those hoods have sidewalks in them…where you gonna walk? Put up a gate, quick!

If you really look at it with critical eye, certainty not a world class city by any means.

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 3:04 pm

Jan 1st I dumped another $6k in my TFSA for 2022.

Have a few more k to top up my max RRSP limit for 2021.

Gonna sit back and wait for the tax refund and immediately plow that into RRSP’s for 2022.

Real Estate? Pffft. .
Wouldn’t touch it with a 20 ft barge pole right now.

#20 End all mandates on 01.02.22 at 3:10 pm

End testing.

End mandates and restrictions.

End passports.

It is all not working and clearly making things worse.

Here is a new concept we never tried before – personal responsibility!

2 years of insanity and we’re no better off than when we started.

#21 Adam on 01.02.22 at 3:10 pm

Where did ya get the $1.9 million number from for YVR detached? Actually average price was $2.182 million for a detached home in areas covered by the REBGV. Would be much higher in proper Vancouver though (the city). Should be close to $2.3 million once December stats come out. Headed to $3 million soon, no doubt.

#22 mj on 01.02.22 at 3:41 pm

a couple weeks ago I saw on realtor.ca on the front page showed 160,000 properties for sale. I believe it includes everything for sale from houses to businesses across Canada. I just checked and today it’s about 135,000 properties for sale. I’m sure tens of thousands are vacant land, and businesses. It would be interesting to see how many are just residential real estate.

#23 Barb on 01.02.22 at 3:43 pm

BC Assessment reports our place now $198,900 more than last year. A 20.9% increase.

And the municipality predicts property tax increases may approach 5%. But add to that regional district and library charges, and school, and Hospital and BC Assessment.

Many years ago, the property tax invoice from the muni was all of 1 page. Now it’s 3 full pages for all the extra outstretched hands.

No idea yet what the mill rate (charge per $1,000 assessment) will be. The muni’s property tax equates to about 35% of total property tax.

Gonna be big dollars, which naturally will lead to increases in rentals for tenants too.

#24 baloney Sandwitch on 01.02.22 at 3:43 pm

@End all mandates
We will see your bravado if you or your loved ones are at the business end of a respirator.
Stay safe. This is not the time to give up. Right now I have a 20 something holed up in his bedroom with covid with mild symptoms. The rest of us (incl. a 96 yr old grandma) are keeping our toes crossed.

#25 Satori on 01.02.22 at 3:44 pm

#7 Satori

Dude, Toronto! What a dump too! I walked a loop of Bloor, Yonge, Queen, Dufferin yesterday. My goodness.

#12 Linda Smith on 01.02.22 at 2:40 pm
Toronto real estate is the future
Stocks are good but Toronto real estate is better
______________________________________

I agree, who would want to live in a neighborhood where used dirty needles out number fallen leaves. Who wants to enjoy the deterioration of humanity from that little box over priced box in the air??

It is depressing, sad… one elementary school downtown have to pick up broken light-bulbs and needles before they let the kids out to play. Three times a day!! Oh and try asking someone half standing, swaying side to side to leave the playground?

Being asked for money by homeless people every second store. Even West Vancouver is getting bad, and it NEVER was… a stroll on the streets at night is more of a dangerous nightmare rather than relaxing.

Uh Toronto? Vancouver? realestate is where it is at???… I guess, if you are looking to feel like an elitist with daily viewing of unfortunate others, then I guess that’s the place to be.

#26 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 3:44 pm

It’s a crap shoot Garth.

Suffice to say that 2020 was AD 0 for Planet Earth with Covid-19.

You may well be correct but all I know so far is this:

Expect the unexpected.

[Arms up in the air]

—————

PROUD OF CALGARY COPS, AIR CANADA FLIGHT ATTENDANTS

Rowdy Russians get Removed…

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/russian-world-juniors-players-escorted-from-plane-by-calgary-police-1.5725207

Brought a smile to my face this AM in Italia. [My Province of birth and proud of it]

Go Canada Go!

—————

#20 End all mandates

Get out there and do it on your own. Let us know how it worked out for ‘ya.

Yet another that bluster’s at the World WHILST HIDING behind 21st C Medicine’s smock. If it weren’t for the latter you wouldn’t be here today.

Counterfeit sanctimony.

#27 t black on 01.02.22 at 3:51 pm

I can’t understand how Tiff Mac comes out in 2020 and begs Canadians to borrow money, assuring them that rates won’t be increased for a very, very long (watch the videos) time.

Now we live under the threat of rising interest rates, folks it ain’t going to happen. It would burst very medium to large enterprise in Country – including the global monetary system!!

Maybe we get 2 -3 nominal hikes, they have to be seen to at least try and deal with the inflation locomotion, a swift reversal will quickly follow as the stock market tanks and the system starts to squeal under the pressure.

Curious as to true value in the stock market? Take a look to April 2020 for guidance. It’s right there clear as day.

TBlack

#28 willworkforpickles on 01.02.22 at 3:54 pm

No one will even want to set foot in a million dollar slum in the future… except the owner.

#29 leebow on 01.02.22 at 3:59 pm

Under the most basic probabilistic model that assumes 20% annual probability of 30% housing crash, the break-even RE appreciation rate is 7.5%. That is before taxes and expenses. So 8-10% projection of appreciation is not some manna foodstuffs. Merely the hurdle rate.

#30 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:01 pm

For all those that safely HIDE behind 21st C Medicine’s smock and bitch about restrictions etc.

Denmark 2 mo. ago *:

https://i.imgur.com/Uvm461R.png

Denmark today:

https://i.imgur.com/2v6qzjf.png

You see Denmark did end mandates, almost 4 mo ago:

“Denmark lifts all Covid restrictions as vaccinations top 80%”
– Fri 10 Sep 2021 10.51 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2021/sep/10/denmark-lifts-all-covid-restrictions-as-vaccinations-top-80-per-cent

That worked out well.

* Kept the screen shot from back then since I knew that it would not end well for Denmark.

It didn’t.

[though, I had high hopes for them]

#31 willworkforpickles on 01.02.22 at 4:02 pm

When we get to the days when the homeless think they got it made…loog out.

#32 kc on 01.02.22 at 4:09 pm

Omicron. It’s everywhere.

Omicron. Its OVER. It is a cold/flu… get over it. Go outside and be human again.

https://fortune.com/2021/12/27/omicron-blindsided-world-symptoms/

#33 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:12 pm

Since everyday in AD 2 (2020 was Covid-19 AD 0) brings with it more gobsmacking news, Il Sole 24 Ore in Italia today reported this:

1 million Covid-19 infections in Italia. [60M souls in all]

100 million in Europe. 100 MILLION.

The gift that keeps on giving.

—————–

Dec. 31 was perusing New Year GIFs on Twitter and came across this and Tweeted my original impression:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1477018894477021191

Change of Thought:

Omicron + Delta Love Child incubating, just a ‘throbbin away.

#34 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:15 pm

#32 kc

Knock yourself out…on your own.

No need to tell us what to do but, no one is stopping you from making good on your assertion.

Thus, no thanks for your Public Announcement.

#35 Reality Check on 01.02.22 at 4:17 pm

16 Pandemic

You guys seeing this Bills game?

See the packed stadium?
——————
Watch any of the bowl games yesterday? Packed full and barely a mask in site, and stadiums seat 70-100,000. Should be good for a few 10s of thousand more cases this coming week.

#36 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:21 pm

Let me repeat to the Omicron is everywhere so let’s get out there and get it.

1 million in Italia infected.

100 million in Europe infected as I type.

So there 2 bricks short of a full load, not all the oars are in the water, sack hammers, box of rocks, 40 card deck…

DEEP THINKERS

What do you think those numbers are doing to the European economy & its GDP?

Essential services? Supply chains?

——————

Firmly and well LEFT of the MEAN IQ of humanity chart deep thinkers.

#37 Linda on 01.02.22 at 4:22 pm

Seems to me that the gap between those that have & those that don’t will continue to increase. The unintended consequences of WFH which led to an exodus from major urban areas to smaller communities has spread a plague of new homelessness across the land. Cost of living is up everywhere with no end in sight. Those with financial resources (many who visit this blog) will probably continue to do just great as the markets roar. The less financially fortunate (or astute) will continue to struggle to make ends meet.

#38 Macduff on 01.02.22 at 4:25 pm

I come to the comments section daily to ready TN’s insightful, if not paranoid comments about the future of our unfolding authoritarian regime in Canada. Any chance he could do a guest column?

None. – Garth

#39 Reality Check on 01.02.22 at 4:31 pm

20 End all mandates on 01.02.22
Here is a new concept we never tried before – personal responsibility!
———————
So does that mean you will take personal responsibility if you get a serious case of covid and not run to the hospital to clog up the system and deny other people access to health care?

#40 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:32 pm

#38 Macduff

Any chance he [TN] could do a guest column?

None. – Garth

——————-

Grazie ∞.

#41 db on 01.02.22 at 4:36 pm

I think the macro trends need to be viewed through the prism of interdependencies. The 2009 crash demonstrated how inter-connected macro trends are; especially when the analysis tends to be done in silos.
For example, rate resets and subprime loans shouldn’t have had such an out-sized impact. However, combine them with NINJA loans, poor underwriting, appraisal and documenting standards, slicing and dicing and finally sky-high leverage and you have an epic melt-down.
For 2022 I can’t see how a Chinese Real Estate correction and liquidity crisis wouldn’t impact commodities and thus the value of the CAD and AUD. So the Bank of Canada may have to manage both inflation and support the dollar (again interconnected) or risk a lowering CAD exacerbating already high consumer inflation. That’s a challenging tight-rope to walk for the BoC.
China’s impact on the US is already baked in to the USD so I can’t see major headwinds in that regard. What no one has really quantified is the connection between Crypto, real estate, equity investing and employment income for the largest cohort in the US – the millennials.
Allowing people to borrow and use Crypto as collateral so they can buy equity and homes via the private mortgage market is – risky maybe?
At 2.2 Trillion USD combined market cap how big does Crypto need to be before it can do serious harm if it folds? How much of that sum is leveraged? How does it tie to other investment decisions (i.e. equities, home buying) and consumer spending? Is it siphoning money away from productive assets and investing?
Garth’s point regarding Canadian real estate is a valid one; I’m just wondering if the trigger for a correction (and the severity/length) will be entirely driven by macro factors completely beyond our control and our borders. If so, how will we afford another $200 billion bailout?

#42 NOSTRADAMUS on 01.02.22 at 4:36 pm

CAST A SPELL AND ALL IS WELL.
Mr. “T”, it looks as if we are taking different paths this year. The moments in time that you are forecasting, I fear will be found to be as rare as Lock Ness Monster sightings, and almost as unbelievable. The coming withdrawal of liquidity will prove to be problematic for your rosy forecasts.
For all the people who believe in magic, I have some sad, sad news, there is no train that will take you to Harry Potter’s Hogwarts. “Cast a spell and all is well.” And magically, all your financial problems will disappear. Poof, Gone. Sorry mates, Hogwarts is not a real place, only a figment of the writers imagination. Much like, I suspect, the thinking of today’s overindebted, who believe that debt is no big problem. Besides they have an imaginary friend, The Banker, who will always be there for their every want and need. Whoa! the real train they are on is picking up speed. They missed too many warning signs. They have been oblivious for years to the fact a catastrophe can come out of the blue, such as,” THE WITHDRAWL OF LIQUIDITY,” The banking cartel is getting a bit edgy. The stark reality of hearing your imaginary friend say, Nada, Fini, No Mas, to your pleas for more, will be heart breaking. At every turn, the overindebted have discarded the “Precautionary Principle.” A principle, for making decisions radically affecting people’s lives without adequate evidence. You got caught up in the delusional thinking that debt was no big deal and that the banker is your best friend. Wrong, mate. It is way past midnight, time to start questioning this belief. “Cast A Spell, And All Is Well.” Sleep tight my little beauties.

#43 kc on 01.02.22 at 4:37 pm

34 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:15 pm

#32 kc

Knock yourself out…on your own.

No need to tell us what to do but, no one is stopping you from making good on your assertion.

Thus, no thanks for your Public Announcement.

***************

This whole covid crap has never stopped me from doing anything yet.

keep living under your rock.

cheers

#44 catmandeux on 01.02.22 at 4:38 pm

#22 mj

” … I’m sure tens of thousands are vacant land, and businesses. It would be interesting to see how many are just residential real estate.”
———————————–
Select Filter, change drop down for Property Type. Click Search.
Zoom map to change the search area.
Vacant Land: 24,534
Residential: 88,612
Condo: 18,880

Zoom out. Some condos in the Caribbean as well

#45 Quintilian on 01.02.22 at 4:38 pm

#9 I don’t know

Yours is a common view among the real estate cult which consists of:

-RE pumpers
-Overindebted mortgage Slaves
-Financial illiterates
-Secretly scared to death every time the media mentions “housing bubble”
-No economic historical knowledge
-No possession of a calculator
– Now knowledge of human folly

#46 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:40 pm

#35 Reality Check

a few 10s of thousand more cases this coming week.

———————-

Of course your’re assuming the Americans can test; thus, count:

https://i.imgur.com/LmTb6Aa.png

At least Canada has the good common sense to admit it can’t and won’t…but still tries anyway (dutiful reporting of mediocrity – rebrand that to PLUCKY from now on in).

#47 Boombust on 01.02.22 at 4:44 pm

Here in Greater Vancouver and per real estate portal Zealty.ca, overall December sales will are 24% (21% for detached) below November, 16% (24% for detached) below December, 2020 and 54% (60% for detached) below the March, 2021 sales peak.

So much for “low inventory”; sales are down because…sales are down.

As for any upward price pressures due to low inventory levels, using faulty realtor logic, zero inventory would see prices rise to infinity.

As far as that goes, March 2021, saw 5,703 sales with 9,145 listings while September,2021 saw 3,149 sales with 9,236 listings. So,there goes that “theory”

In fact, no one “has”to buy anything if there isn’t much to pick and choose from and at the right price. The good News? Some people always “have” to sell. And, good luck with fetching sky-high prices in a declining sales environment.

#48 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:49 pm

#43 kc

Well, do as Denmark did.

Again, knock yourself out as a DEEP THINKER.

And when you get Omi, drop us a line.

#49 kc on 01.02.22 at 4:56 pm

48 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:49 pm

#43 kc

Well, do as Denmark did.

Again, knock yourself out as a DEEP THINKER.

And when you get Omi, drop us a line.

*****

will do.

#50 willworkforpickles on 01.02.22 at 4:58 pm

Maybe this blog site should focus a little more on what would/will happen to society once the free spending taps are permanently sealed off.
Or more importantly…why government spending can’t and won’t be turned off , spiralling the debt to where in itself, hastens those particular days of reckoning.
The smooth talk we are handed daily, the images portrayed, would shatter in our faces by the very truth in where we are headed if the truth itself would ever be told.
Smooth talk is better. Don’t shatter my image of the kind of world i have created in my mind i want to live in.
Few realize it today.
All will come to know eventually how debt will become our ultimate undoing.
All current justification to the contrary nonetheless notwithstanding..

#51 Joe Miller on 01.02.22 at 5:05 pm

Investing in Toronto real estate now is the wisest thing to do now especially the current price
Despite all the economic crisis and COVID variants, this is the right time to start up an investment

Your choice of language says it all. Real estate is not housing to you, but an investment asset. You are the enemy. – Garth

#52 I don’t know on 01.02.22 at 5:05 pm

#45 Quintilian on 01.02.22 at 4:38 pm

It’s a “common view” among a lot of people because it’s a reality. Anyone who doesn’t see that is simply choosing not to look.

The most basic of economic fundamentals is supply and demand, and that’s the starting point here.

As our host has mentioned many times, the young will have to adapt. They need to be mobile, ready to jump at career opportunities away from home, and be invested as early as possible. That is the paradigm moving forward. It’s not all bad since following that advice will probably lead to a better outcome than a huge mortgage and monthly payments in the end. The 80’s are never coming back, sorry.

By the way, I rent in the GTA, and don’t work in real estate.

#53 Doug in London on 01.02.22 at 5:09 pm

Periodically parts of the boreal forest catch fire. In the short run it causes a lot of destruction, but it also gets rid of a lot of dead wood, releasing nutrients like trace elements locked up in it. The heat also opens up jack pine cones, with delayed action, that reseed new growth. It’s a natural and normal part of the regeneration cycle.

We need a similar blowoff of the outrageous excess in the housing market to make housing more affordable and MAKE CANADA GREAT AGAIN. Bring it on!

#54 Chalkie on 01.02.22 at 5:12 pm

Load up your TFSA to your max, it is a tax haven for those who can afford to top it up, no penalty or income tax as long as you continue to own and build it, Under the liberals or the conservatives, you are safe to keep invested, things will change if ever Mr. Singh ever gets his NDP in power or if he makes a sweet deal with Justin.
In the mean time, real estate has since the beginning of time, has always surfaced as your best investment.
If you can’t afford Real Estate, your TFSA is your next best option.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 5:33 pm

@#4 Justin Flation
“Don’t worry Canada! I’m here to save the day, inflating your debts away!”

+++

Thank you sir.
The $1.65/litre for Regular gas in the Lower Brainland is a good start…

#56 Another Deckchair on 01.02.22 at 5:36 pm

@52 I don’t know

“As our host has mentioned many times, the young will have to adapt. They need to be mobile, ready to jump at career opportunities away from home..”

It’s been that way for a few generations now:

My parents moved in the mid-50s by ship across the Atlantic. A great job beckoned.

I’ve lived and worked in 4 countries, both hemispheres; never within about 6 hours drive of my parent’s home.

Kids, nieces, nephews; working or have worked in England, Belgium; in the USA: Texas, California, New York City, in Canada: somewhere in Saskatchewan, Vancouver Island, Vancouver, Toronto, essentially wherever their noses take them…

That’s if you want to work in interesting careers, have an interesting lifestyle, find every day fun and enjoyable, etc. Doesn’t apply to those who only want to “live” on the dole.

#57 Wrk.dover on 01.02.22 at 5:36 pm

Agreed. Equity markets will likely see a lot of new, new highs. Investors will do just fine. Stay the course. Don’t be a cowboy. Eschew crypto. Expect a correction. Maybe two. G.T.
________________________________

Coinciding with rate hike announcements.

With all this going on, no wonder no story has developed on what grows on the bellies of idled tankers.

They won’t need fuel efficiency for the return voyage anyhow. Consumerism will be deceased by then.

#58 Wrk.dover on 01.02.22 at 5:37 pm

Edit: idled container ships.

#59 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 5:38 pm

Fluorescing mask when in contact with Covid-19:

https://twitter.com/LaStampa/status/1477577435902189569

Not so sure this is such a good idea.

—————

Let your imagination run wild…mine did:

Dark, dark indoors space.

Tons of masked people.

Few exit doors.

Then…

#60 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 5:45 pm

PS:

Fluorescing mask when in contact with Covid-19:

https://twitter.com/LaStampa/status/1477577435902189569

————-

Upside:

Send a fluorescing mask person into a Covid is a hoax, anti-vaxxer and/or drop all restrictions protest crowd wearing a

“I need a hug” sign.

See what they do.

#61 Penny Henny on 01.02.22 at 5:48 pm

Hey Garth maybe you can not post until Dolce has gone to sleep.
He gets too boozed up and wants to reply to everything.
Dolce Vita
#26
#30
#33
#34
#36
#40
#46
#48

Or maybe just put him on the two a day like TurnerNation.
At least TurnerNation respects the blog and limits himself.

Dolce is a freakin goof.

#62 Penny Henny on 01.02.22 at 5:54 pm

Actually a scaredy cat goof

#63 TurnerNation on 01.02.22 at 6:08 pm

That stupid leaked email was off by one year? 2022.

“- Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.
– Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.
– Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.
– Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.”



Stay tuned.

“#25 TurnerNation on 12.24.21 at 4:28 pm
2022: The Economic lockdowns. I warned, they are not playing around this time. This is the final lockdown into UBI. It’s being slowly phased in via the assistance to the business.”

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 6:09 pm

#38 Macduff on 01.02.22 at 4:25 pm
I come to the comments section daily to ready TN’s insightful, if not paranoid comments about the future of our unfolding authoritarian regime in Canada. Any chance he could do a guest column?

None. – Garth
——————
Haha
Actually, I’m drawing up a list for Garth to reject.
Coming any day now.

#65 Sail Away on 01.02.22 at 6:10 pm

#54 Chalkie on 01.02.22 at 5:12 pm

Load up your TFSA to your max, it is a tax haven for those who can afford to top it up, no penalty or income tax as long as you continue to own and build it

If you can’t afford Real Estate, your TFSA is your next best option.

———-

Don’t get too excited about the TFSA. It’s good and all, but here’s the thing:

With the same rate of return in both TFSA and RRSP,

If your tax rate at contribution equals tax rate at withdrawal, the RRSP yields exactly the same after-tax as the TFSA. If your tax rate at contribution exceeds your tax rate at withdrawal, the RRSP yields more after-tax than the TFSA.

In most cases, top up TFSA after RRSP is maxed.

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 6:13 pm

I think Assessment Day, January 2nd, should be a Stat Holiday in BC.
Celebrating BC’s top industry.

#67 Barb on 01.02.22 at 6:22 pm

#7 “Downtown full of yelling profanity homeless, and camping up and down the once beautiful street.”
#25 “Oh and try asking someone half standing, swaying side to side to leave the playground?
Being asked for money by homeless people every second store.
———————————-

Our acreage is a 10 min drive from the area’s 40,000 population. I now sing a different tune than years ago when griping about no streetlights or sidewalks here and no buses.

Now I consider not being on a bus route to be a benefit. The druggies, thieves and panhandlers can’t get here. Thank dog.

#68 AM in MN on 01.02.22 at 6:26 pm

#7 Satori on 01.02.22 at 2:22 pm
Yikes! Vancouver downtown is not the same, in the past three years the homelessness is not just on Hastings, it’s on Robson, with 3 for lease signs to every one business. It’s basically a dump. Downtown full of yelling profanity homeless, and camping up and down the once beautiful street.

—————————————————-

That’s what the good white liberals and virtue signalers voted for. Add a 6% property tax increase this year, with more to follow, about double over the last 10 years.

Until you stop voting for it, you get more of the same.

Have you no compassion for the down and out (through no fault of their own!), just because they took a dump in front of your apartment door?

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 6:32 pm

#74 KLNR on 01.02.22 at 9:38 am
@#60 Albertaguy in AB on 01.01.22 at 9:35 pm
Rose Bowl, 60,000 fans, no masks.
We are sucky wuseholes.

almost like america purposely wants to cull their population a bit.
——————————-
Like going into wars they can’t win.

#70 Cici on 01.02.22 at 6:37 pm

Typo alert: “… buyers rushing into mortgages in Q1 of ’21” should be “… buyers rushing into mortgages in Q1 of ’22”.

Yup, 2022 is already here. It came too fast and the past two years have been a blur, but we just can’t go back in time ;-)

#71 RichardTO on 01.02.22 at 6:53 pm

Omicron kicking ass, and chewing bubble gum.

Everyone in my family is sick (and I have an elevated heart rate which means I’m fighting it), the hospitals I used to get tested last year aren’t even offering the swabs to civilians, just their own healthcare people. The government has officially given up, not even attempting to track the extent.

I guess they’ve realize the Belarussian strategy is most effective: that is if you don’t look for the virus, you won’t find it…

And of course, the so-called vaccinations haven’t done anything; the vaccinated are now getting COVID and transmitting it to other vaccinated as if the whole program didn’t exist. Hey, at least they will finally have real immunity and not the contrived, feeble, engineered “immunity”.

You people should all consider yourselves lucky. If this was a truly dangerous infection, with a death rate of say 15% (which the original SARS from 2003 averaged) you wouldn’t have a chance. Maybe consider bringing your body fat under 20% (#1 comorbidity besides age) and putting down that 1.5 litre 6,000 calorie monstrosity from Starbucks.

#72 DON on 01.02.22 at 6:54 pm

#52 I don’t know on 01.02.22 at 5:05 pm
#45 Quintilian on 01.02.22 at 4:38 pm

It’s a “common view” among a lot of people because it’s a reality. Anyone who doesn’t see that is simply choosing not to look.

The most basic of economic fundamentals is supply and demand, and that’s the starting point here.

As our host has mentioned many times, the young will have to adapt. They need to be mobile, ready to jump at career opportunities away from home, and be invested as early as possible. That is the paradigm moving forward. It’s not all bad since following that advice will probably lead to a better outcome than a huge mortgage and monthly payments in the end. The 80’s are never coming back, sorry.

By the way, I rent in the GTA, and don’t work in real estate.

********

You are right the 80s aren’t coming back…we have managed to out do the 80’s on a bunch of topics. Way more QE. Priced out families can’t be replaced by investors to sustain further increases.

China’s Evergrande missed another offshore payment last week. They are a controlled society, one would think the gov could stop a collapse. Then again their real estaste market is 62 Trillion…maybe they bit off more than they could chew per capita.

With respect to the US Fed and possible rate hikes…will 3 hikes be enough to tame 6%+ inflation. The argument that the fed can’t raise rates due to all the debt runs smack into more inflation if they don’t while contining to inject QE.

The herd goes mad together but comes back to reality on an individual basis.

The gov will be fine in any event, it is the over indebted segment that will set the pace in any decline.

#73 Quintilian on 01.02.22 at 7:38 pm

#52 I don’t know
“The most basic of economic fundamentals is supply and demand, and that’s the starting point here.”

Those fundamentals have been short-circuited and do not apply to RE in Canada.

In order for supply and demand to function they have to let free market mechanisms to freely operate by inelasticity and elasticity.

Supply has been suppressed and demand has been stoked by politicians.

Basically, a command economy style of management.

History tells you that it can’t be manipulated indefinitely and it won’t end well.

#74 bdwy on 01.02.22 at 7:42 pm

#24 baloney Sandwitch on 01.02.22 at 3:43 pm
@End all mandates
We will see your bravado if you or your loved ones are at the business end of a respirator.

——————————-
look at the packed football stadiums going on for months now.

your crippling fear, bordering on illness, makes you see bravado where normal people see things normally. you are the outlier. try to get your head heathy.

keep grandma locked away if she insists on it and end all restrictions.

#75 I don’t know on 01.02.22 at 8:05 pm

73 Quintilian on 01.02.22 at 7:38

History doesn’t always repeat but it rhymes.

If you look at the US housing crash in 2008 as an example, you’ll see that most heavily leveraged and speculative locations were hit the hardest. Think Phoenix and Miami. Prime real estate in Manhattan? Not so much. The same will hold true here (if we experience any declines in prices). That’s exactly why I singled out the SFD in the gta as the best bet. Because let’s be honest, when people are hoping the enter the market due to price drops the SFD is really what they are hoping to scoop up.

RE: politicians and artificial demand. Only partially true. The green belt is one example of an artificial constraint, yes, but it doesn’t negate more important factors like population growth, family formation trends, Canadian geography and so on.

Of course timing the market is a sucker’s game, whether it’s equities or real estate so again, the mantra will always be buy dirt in desirable locations when you are able.

#76 bdwy on 01.02.22 at 8:08 pm

#60 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 5:45 pm
PS:

Fluorescing mask when in contact with Covid-19:

https://twitter.com/LaStampa/status/1477577435902189569

————-

Upside:

Send a fluorescing mask person into a Covid is a hoax, anti-vaxxer and/or drop all restrictions protest crowd wearing a

“I need a hug” sign.

See what they do.
—————————–

dolce has the fear illness too.

my wife and daughter got plenty of extra hugs when they had/have it as they were feeling a bit down.
nobody hid anywhere. shared food, car, bed, everything. 2 weeks now. what are you so afraid of, it’s a damn mild cold.

god damn baby.

#77 bdwy on 01.02.22 at 8:15 pm

Maybe consider bringing your body fat under 20% (#1 comorbidity besides age)
———————————-
this.
as i inhale the 4th bag of hawkins cheezies. so salty. but still this.

a 20% calorie reduction vs endless mnra injections?

#78 Tiësto on 01.02.22 at 8:22 pm

#24 baloney Sandwitch on 01.02.22 at 3:43 pm
@End all mandates

We will see your bravado if you or your loved ones are at the business end of a respirator.

—-

Likely a million Canadian businesses ARE on a respirator.

#79 Masquerade on 01.02.22 at 8:34 pm

#71 RichardTO on 01.02.22 at 6:53 pm
Omicron kicking ass, and chewing bubble gum.

Everyone in my family is sick (and I have an elevated heart rate which means I’m fighting it), the hospitals I used to get tested last year aren’t even offering the swabs to civilians, just their own healthcare people. The government has officially given up, not even attempting to track the extent.

I guess they’ve realize the Belarussian strategy is most effective: that is if you don’t look for the virus, you won’t find it…

And of course, the so-called vaccinations haven’t done anything; the vaccinated are now getting COVID and transmitting it to other vaccinated as if the whole program didn’t exist. Hey, at least they will finally have real immunity and not the contrived, feeble, engineered “immunity”.

You people should all consider yourselves lucky. If this was a truly dangerous infection, with a death rate of say 15% (which the original SARS from 2003 averaged) you wouldn’t have a chance. Maybe consider bringing your body fat under 20% (#1 comorbidity besides age) and putting down that 1.5 litre 6,000 calorie monstrosity from Starbucks.

—-

Ha ha ha.

Official numbers put this thing from the very beginning at 99.6% range survivability range.

This Omnibus is probably 99.999%

We never counted the grains on sands on the beach, only estimated. Estimating and counting are not same things.

Vaccinated is who is moving all these variants around before we can find it. Fascinates me that we have passports and these testing requirements still. It is all so pointless and clearly ineffective.

This has been a pandemic of doing the same dumb stuff and expecting a different result.

Meanwhile, our leaders have been spending like crazy to prop up the economies so in-debt one has to wonder what they will come up with next to justify bailing out this new much larger pile of debt.

As for the state of our health being poor, that type of truth you can’t find on TV. Have you not seen enough fast food commercials during the news hour to realize this is one of the best revenue engines for advertising revenue for them? You expect them to tell that type of truth?

Being fat is just like a drug addiction. They don’t want you to quit, and those selling you the drugs won’t tell you to quit.

#80 Garth's Son Drake on 01.02.22 at 8:51 pm

Looks like that BC Assessment Authority algo is running perfectly:

For 2021 Vancouver homes jumped 16 per cent on average, while in Chilliwack they increased 36.5 per cent. Vancouver Island rose 31.5 per cent in value, while the Okanagan gained 32%.

…with a standard deviation of about 4%.

It is quite comical that this so called independent organization is staffed by technical appraisers and anyone else other that IT staff when AI bots are doing all of the work and is nicely cross platform integrated with the entire tax system to perfectly round out numbers that meet the revenue needs of municipalities.

And just like the stock markets, these bots are not programmed to ever let prices and the resulting tax revenues drop.

Taxes are forever going up, not down. Just like house prices.

Vancouver’s approved property tax hikes have totaled 23.54 per cent since 2018. The property tax bills are floating around 6600 for Vancouver, $9406 for West Vancouver, $6311 for North Vancouver, 6254 for New Westminster, $6099 for White Rock, $4067 for Langley, $4102 for Victoria and $4021 for Kelowna.
This is a slow-motion train wreck and not hard to see that most properties in BC will be well over the 10k mark for property taxes in as little as 8 years when you combine the rate of tax increases and house price appreciation.

I calculate a 3000% plus gain on any metro Vancouver property since the 70’s, which includes the interest rate pop in the 80’s, 90’s, tech bubble burst, 08′ financial crisis and the Covid black swan event. In fact, percentage gains have slowed in the past 15 years. It is simple math. 2 to 3 million dollars for a house is pretty common in metro Vancouver at present. Soon it will be 5 million.

I also noticed the immigration numbers into Canada are coming in big again – 40k per month right now – just in time to put even more pressure on the low inventory housing market.

#81 the Jaguar on 01.02.22 at 8:53 pm

“We saw what the 2021 federal election yielded – buyer incentives and real estate taxes coming this spring, but no new housing supply. ” -GT ++

A deeper dive is needed on the supply/demand issue. There have been several articles recently on NIMBYISM and population growth. Here’s a good link, and check out this little gem in the article: “The country’s population is booming. It’s growing at twice the rate of the U.S. and faster than any other Group of Seven nation. Most newcomers land in a handful of large cities, ..” You don’t say? Here’s the link for the full read:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/angry-neighbors-block-housing-that-canada-s-cities-badly-need-1.1698918

If peeps don’t think the physical and societal landscape is going to change massively as a result of huge immigration numbers they are more than a few bricks short of a load.
The big cities are the preferred location for newcomers to Canada, and it’s a numbers game. Work from home isn’t the only reason that smaller communities are feeling the ‘influx’, and a few blog dogs have commented on the less than desirable outcome of those relocations to residents of the smaller communities.
The comments about homelessness, homeless camps, drug issues and the impact on community services ( like EMS) because of those ‘social issues’ are becoming more frequent on this blog and others.

Sadly the response is always the same. Throw money at the problem, usually with the familiar refrain of ‘more safe injection sites and affordable housing’.

Sounds fashionable, but it won’t fix the problem. Something else is coming that might put a dent in it, though. Fasten your seat belts. Turbulence ahead. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

#82 devore on 01.02.22 at 9:11 pm

#60 Dolce Vita

Why must everything have to be extremes for you people. Or is it just easier to sound righteous against a strawman?

#83 mike from mtl on 01.02.22 at 9:22 pm

The ‘markets’ don’t worry me, s&p going 6000 totally doable – TINA.

Canadian RE in metro areas have nothing to worry about, all gains for decades to come.

Just the agenda, mass psychosis, unchecked power of various governments and officials that really scare me.

#84 45north on 01.02.22 at 9:24 pm

But, man, can anyone reasonably expect little Canada to escape a housing reckoning of some kind?

Ellen Brown talks about the problem of inflation and the risks of raising interest rates. She says that a multitude of small banks can stimulate innovative companies without giving rise to inflation. She sites the Bank of North Dakota as an example of the kind of bank that improves the economy without causing inflation. It is a small bank owned by the North Dakota.

https://www.howestreet.com/2021/12/the-real-antidote-to-inflation-stoking-the-fire-without-burning-down-the-barn/

In Canada, we have six large national banks that completely dominate the scene. Maybe there are small credit unions that do lend to innovative companies but my impression is that they are either extremely conservative or they are basically betting on the housing market. In short, the banking system we have is the opposite of what she is proposing. She points to small banks in Germany but they obviously didn’t spring up overnight.

I don’t see how Canada can escape from a housing reckoning. If we want to reduce inflation we have to raise interest rates. I’m afraid our leaders are not up to hard decisions.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 9:29 pm

@#69 Ponzie’s Prussian Paradigm
“Like going into wars they can’t win.”

+++

Well.
I guess it’s better than zee Germans.
They start wars they cant win.

#86 devore on 01.02.22 at 9:31 pm

And by “you people” I mean those addicted to the constant state of fear. A good friend of mine has one of those home automation things you make yourself from a raspberry or pieberry or whatever. You know what he puts front and centre on the precious status screen real estate? Covid death counter.

Why? What does it add to your life? I just shake my head and move on, not my war to fight, and nothing to gain from fighting it. Nice guy. Smart. Like DV, I thought he’d be one of the last people to fall for this, but the last two years brought plenty of new learnings about the people in my life.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 9:39 pm

@#80 Drake Garthssun
“I also noticed the immigration numbers into Canada are coming in big again – 40k per month right now – just in time to put even more pressure on the low inventory housing market.”

+++

Students, temporary work visa recipients, refugees, vacationers….. the list goes on.
1,000,000 per year?

Housing will be in short supply for a long long long time.

#88 tkid on 01.02.22 at 9:40 pm

I don’t believe it’s rising interest rates that will do in real estate prices, but rising everyday costs.

#89 Milbay on 01.02.22 at 9:52 pm

“outsized demand for properties by investors” says Garth.., but I have not read anything here yet about who these investors are.., where is this going? .., I agree with Garth its not off-shore money from Asia or Lower Mainland casinos but whats going on with BlackRock/stone, Canadas own Tricon ,and even CPP getting into residential real estate? this can’t end well.

Mom & pops. Why would corps aggregate SFHs at non-economic prices? It’s a myth. – Garth

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 9:53 pm

The old “Supply and Demand” Mantra.
Works well in the Economics 101 textbooks.
I remember it well, Graphs and Laughs.
Maybe works in a pure Capitalistic environment.
But where do you find one in real life.
There’s a reason why they call it the Dismal Science.

#91 Dr V on 01.02.22 at 10:03 pm

80 Drake

“And just like the stock markets, these bots are not programmed to ever let prices and the resulting tax revenues drop.”

Sigh.

Your local government does not need property values to go up to increase your taxes.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/local-governments/finance/requisition-taxation/local-government-taxation/property-value-taxes/municipal-taxes

“All municipalities must adopt a property value tax bylaw each year. The tax bylaw must be adopted after the annual budget (financial plan). Based on the tax revenue requirements in the budget, the municipality will set its municipal tax rates to raise the appropriate revenue from the nine different classes of property.”

#92 Omicron Kenobi on 01.02.22 at 10:14 pm

2022 belongs to me.

It will be an interesting year. And a very short one for most of you deplorables.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 10:14 pm

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 9:29 pm
@#69 Ponzie’s Prussian Paradigm
“Like going into wars they can’t win.”

+++

Well.
I guess it’s better than zee Germans.
They start wars they cant win.
——————-
I assume you talk about WWI and WWll.
Germany did not start WWl, contrary to what Hollywood tells you.
Always do you research before commenting.

#94 VladTor on 01.02.22 at 10:21 pm

Garth.
Happy New Year and best wishes for your family!

***********
….As this relates to real estate, says LePage boss Phil Soper: (a) the central bank will delay raising rates as a result….

************

Ha…ha…ha

Is it really his job to lie us? For his salary? As soon as US FED will rise rate so Canada will raise it too. Simple formula!

#95 willworkforpickles on 01.02.22 at 11:10 pm

#88 tkid
“I don’t believe it’s rising interest rates that will do in real estate prices, but rising everyday costs.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

They both will.
I have said for some time, endless rising US debt will continue to be a driver of inflation pushing costs higher.
The US Fed will eventually reach the point where being tardy in raising rates will leave them without the option of raising rates effectively as they could and should now, but no option in raising rates where and when they will be forced to later.
When forced to later – forced to – forget about the mere quarter point per quarter upticks then.
Timelines for this, although sketchy as is everything the government and Fed wade into coupled with covid adding to complications, will eventually unfold nonetheless wreaking havoc stateside having fallout effect on Canada down the line.

#96 fishman on 01.02.22 at 11:21 pm

Vancouver has the best & cheapest dope in Canada. Dopeheads come here for their postgraduate degrees. Its a tough course, with mean competition, but when/if completed a return to a successful career in hometowns & reserves is guaranteed. Canadian city size? No problem. A nice small town of 3k or 4k can contribute enough undergrads & apprentices for a healthy & growing population of thieving shitrats. “Dealing dope” a job for life.
Post grad degrees in house flipping? Look no further than Vantown. A degree that will put you far ahead of the rubes in everytown Canada. With absolutely no guilt because there’s never a victim. Everybody’s a winner. Take our most recent esteemed graduate, Mr. Taleeb Noormohamed. A few years ago just a neophyte beginner house flipper. Made millions flipping a couple dozen properties. Suddenly promotion to MP in Canada’s ruling elite. Spreading flippermania from here to Ottawa & beyond, even as far as the Garth. And he doesn’t even speak French. Just “don’t skip the flip”, on your path to power & glory.

#97 The First Joel on 01.02.22 at 11:27 pm

Putting aside the usual pandering and fixation on house porn, has anyone considered thanking the young American trained doctor with the good looking dog (who provided the picture) for agreeing to begin his practice in Nova Scotia . I think us here in Canada could use as much medical help as we can get.
I say thank you

#98 twofatcats on 01.02.22 at 11:49 pm

Jan 2 Today’s flipped ‘Principal Residences’

https://www.zolo.ca/fort-erie-real-estate/148-albany-street
https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/aD6p781v0nr3wRQr/148-ALBANY-Street-Fort-Erie-40153236-X5338462

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/J6Em7bnrdog7XBeq/1955-Grayson-Rd-Fort-Erie-X5238140-40114499
https://www.zolo.ca/fort-erie-real-estate/1955-grayson-avenue#sold-history

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/bqB176Weg1K3ZajD/68-Sherry-Lane-Dr-Hamilton-L8K5R4-X5456214-H4123420

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/bEDRYagnQZO71VaB/563-MORNINGTON-Avenue-110-London-N5Y4T8-40047715

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/aQmD7znPD1O7J9Bo/2380-Bromsgrove-Rd-25-Mississauga-L5J4E6-W5460471

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/wJKR7P86D5M7XeLP/232-Nassau-St-Oshawa-L1J4A5-E5450186-40193067

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/DO1w3WqEdply8Jg0/392-GENEVA-Street-St-Catharines-L2N2G7-40187751-40187751-X5451745

#99 Ding-a-ling! on 01.03.22 at 12:07 am

#23 Barb on 01.02.22 at 3:43 pm

BC Assessment reports our place now $198,900 more than last year. A 20.9% increase.

Oh Barb… It never ceases to amaze me how silly people can be on this blog.

Your house value didnt go up 21% this year. Your property tax base went up that amount since the previous assessment…. which was done several years ago.

And then to think that this number is somehow related to your properties’ value? Its simply a tax base that is used to calculate your property tax bill.

Good news is that your house MAY be worth even more. Depends on you house and market comparables.

#100 Kaiser Wilhelm on 01.03.22 at 12:37 am

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 10:14 pm
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 9:29 pm
@#69 Ponzie’s Prussian Paradigm
“Like going into wars they can’t win.”

+++

Well.
I guess it’s better than zee Germans.
They start wars they cant win.
——————-
I assume you talk about WWI and WWll.
Germany did not start WWl, contrary to what Hollywood tells you.
Always do you research before commenting.

Well… They certainly had a large-sized hand in it. They strategically destabilized the Balkans by backing the Austrians to adopt an uncompromising line against Serbia. They could have easily prevented the war from escalating early on but chose not to.

#101 april on 01.03.22 at 1:30 am

#47- Thanks for that Boombast. Also according to Ross Kay prices have ‘peaked’ months back but Crea will keep pumping and the naive keep falling for it.

#102 Farts in a jar on 01.03.22 at 2:06 am

Wow !! China orders Evergrande to begin demolishing residential towers ! 40 towers in luxury resort island pre-purchased by “investors”. That’s one way to gut inflation.

Bloomberg posting a crash scenario on property stocks in Asia this am. Turkey is another example of hyperinflation depreciated currency caused by printing money at forced zero rates. In Chinas case, it’s state money disguised as private development. Same result. Canada is rushing towards failed state status for all the same reasons. Wait and see.

#103 under the radar on 01.03.22 at 6:26 am

I walk the dog south on Mt Pleasant to Bloor and along Bloor to Yonge then up to Eglinton. I see the homeless tucked away, they too are migrating north looking for more space. Condo’s and very expensive purpose built rentals going up, every third store selling Pot, no public restrooms. Wealth and Poverty and then everybody in between.

#104 Tudval on 01.03.22 at 7:54 am

Sales-to-inventory doesn’t seem to matter that much…In Vancouver it’s about 1:8 for a typical 3 bdrm detached and in Toronto it’s 2:1. Yet prices move in lockstep and still higher in Vancouver, why?

#105 Dharma Bum on 01.03.22 at 8:46 am

#38 MacDuff

Any chance he could do a guest column?

None. – Garth
——————————————————————————————————–

I coulda told you that.

I offerred to fill in for Garth a couple of days a week, with my superior financial analytics and deep philosophical sensibility.

Crickets.

Only Workforpickles showed any support.

Intellectual superiority is a lonely place.

Luckily, I am surrounded all the time.

#106 Dharma Bum on 01.03.22 at 9:01 am

#61 Penny Henny

Hey Garth maybe you can not post until Dolce has gone to sleep.
He gets too boozed up and wants to reply to everything.
Dolce Vita
#26
#30
#33
#34
#36
#40
#46
#48

Or maybe just put him on the two a day like TurnerNation.
At least TurnerNation respects the blog and limits himself.

Dolce is a freakin goof.
——————————————————————————————————

“Freakin’ goof is a tad harsh, no?

Perhaps he needs to just get a life.

Also, when screaming the “I told you so” mantra in regard to the fate of European nations’ battle with COVID and portending the same fate for Canada – not a chance.

Dolce must remember that Europe has always been the world’s cesspool for disease – cholera, plagues, typhus, typhoid, scrofula, smallpox, etc.

Remember folks, it was the Europeans that infected the world at large with the diseases brought over by those pesky intrusive explorers and their infected crews (can anybody say Aztec Empire?).

Also, it is well documented that 56 million Native Americans perished as a result of diseases imported from Europe.

https://www.history.com/news/climate-change-study-colonization-death-farming-collapse

So, Europe’s experience in the 21st century is nothing new. They just suck at managing sickness.

Now, over to Florida…

#107 THE DANDADA on 01.03.22 at 9:37 am

DELETED

#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.22 at 9:54 am

100 Kaiser Wilhelm on 01.03.22 at 12:37 am
#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.02.22 at 10:14 pm
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.22 at 9:29 pm
@#69 Ponzie’s Prussian Paradigm
“Like going into wars they can’t win.”

+++

Well.
I guess it’s better than zee Germans.
They start wars they cant win.
——————-
I assume you talk about WWI and WWll.
Germany did not start WWl, contrary to what Hollywood tells you.
Always do you research before commenting.

Well… They certainly had a large-sized hand in it. They strategically destabilized the Balkans by backing the Austrians to adopt an uncompromising line against Serbia. They could have easily prevented the war from escalating early on but chose not to.
———————-
How about the Russians, the Turks, the Brits, the French?
The Alliences were all in place, ready to duke it out.
A powder keg that just needed the little spark in Sarajevo.

#109 45north on 01.03.22 at 10:01 am

Ponzius Pitatus I assume you talk about WW I and WW II.
Germany did not start WW I, contrary to what Hollywood tells you.
Always do you research before commenting.

here’s my research

The Guns of August Barbara W. Tuchman
The Sleepwalkers Christopher Clark
The War that Ended Peace Margaret MacMillan

Germany had an aggressive military posture for 20 years before the start of World War I. It foolishly embraced military expansion. Among its many errors, it engaged in antagonizing its closest and most powerful neighbours. With Russia, it allied itself with Turkey which directly frustrated Russian ambitions to secure access to the Mediterranean. Somehow, the Kaiser and the German military never thought to advance the German people by co-operation with Russia, such as building a single gauge railway from Berlin to Moscow.

With France, it refused to cede Alsace Lorraine which was the France’s biggest ambition. Germany could have used Alsace Lorraine to leverage trade concessions from the French. Germany would have had to pay its civil service to study French laws and regulations. It would have cost money but not as much as war.

With Great Britain, it engaged in a costly and provocative program to build a navy. Somehow the clever Germans did not realize that the British navy was never going to invade Germany.

World War I led to World War II. The youtube video “Conquest of the Reich” tells the story of the American P47 war planes. In the video, it shows P47s staffing German women leading horses to supply the German war effort. In my mind, it shows the folly of German thinking prior to World War I.

#110 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.03.22 at 10:23 am

Doug Ford announcement at 11.
This is very troubling and concerning.
I don’t think the vaccine is working.
Should I go to 100% cash now before the world comes unhinged again?

#111 Defeat on all fronts nothing works we are led by creti.ns on 01.03.22 at 10:41 am

Brian Lilley @brianlilley Political columnist for the Toronto Sun “Ontario back to Step 2? Hearing that’s what some on the health side are pushing
@fordnation to adopt. Non-stop chatter about a cabinet meeting Sunday. Step 2 would keep schools open, close indoor dining, put non-essential retail at 25% plus lots more.

–Life in North Kanada – Comrade do not let

Doug Ford and all members of the canadian government are corrupt imbe.ciles..

#112 Sail Away on 01.03.22 at 10:51 am

Re: WW2

Europe’s saving grace after WW2 was the Marshall Plan, which benevolently charted a path out of medieval warfare and superstition into the light of modernity. Especially relevant to Austria.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 10:57 am

@3109 .45 North

The Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman was an excellent, well researched, well written, historical expose of nationalism, hubris and alliances that dragged everyone into a “world’ war few wanted except the embittered Kaiser of Germany ( Queen Victoria’s grandson)
A book that today’s world “leaders” should be forced to read and discuss.

I also recommend “Storm of Steel” by Ernst Junger a former WWI German soldier who wrote a no nonsense, journal of the day to day life of a soldier.
No glory. No speeches. No flag waving.
Just the daily grind of surviving endless shells, attacks, disease, boredom and stupidity on all sides.

#114 DON on 01.03.22 at 11:04 am

According to the BBC report this am that after several rate cuts in the last year Turkey is now dealing with an inflation rate of 36%.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59857420

36% because their ‘Error do again’ wants to get reelected in 2023. Apparently, voters now have a low opinion of him.

#115 Gravy Train on 01.03.22 at 11:20 am

#110 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.03.22 at 10:23 am
“[…] Should I go to 100% cash now before the world comes unhinged again?” Did you do that in March 2020? How’d that work out for you? :P

#116 Sail Away on 01.03.22 at 11:29 am

Wow, TSLA up 10% today.

Or, in Covid-style reporting: TSLA Gains $117 Billion Today!!

#117 DON on 01.03.22 at 11:38 am

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/life-insurance-ceo-says-deaths-40-among-those-aged-18-64-and-not-because-covid

On a related note…all the jobs postings are made up of the following activities? Reflation activities, early retirement due to Covid, normal retirement and unexpectant deaths in the working population?

#118 THE DANDADA on 01.03.22 at 11:45 am

There goes the economy…… out the door.
Interest rates….. slash
Money printing…….Full-on
WFH…….. Full steam ahead

Indoor dining at restaurants and bars closed.
Only outdoor dining, takeout, drive through and delivery permitted.
Social gathering limits reduced to five people indoors and 10 people outdoors.
Retail stores, malls and personal care services limited to 50 per cent capacity.
Saunas, steam rooms, and oxygen bars closed.
Capacity at weddings, funerals and religious services limited to 50 per cent capacity per room.
Outdoor services must have two-metre distancing between all attendees.
Employees must work remotely unless their work requires them to be on site.
Gyms and other indoor recreational sport facilities closed, except athletes training for the Olympics and Paralympics and certain professional and elite sports leagues.
Outdoor facilities are permitted but with a 50 per cent capacity limit on spectators.
Museums, galleries, zoos, science centres, historic sites, amusement parks, festivals and other attractions closed.
Outdoor establishments allowed with restrictions and capacity limits.
Indoor meeting and event spaces closed with limited exceptions, expect those with outdoor spaces, which can operate with restrictions.

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.22 at 11:58 am

#113 CEF
I also recommend “Storm of Steel” by Ernst Junger a former WWI German soldier who wrote a no nonsense, journal of the day to day life of a soldier.
No glory. No speeches. No flag waving.
Just the daily grind of surviving endless shells, attacks, disease, boredom and stupidity on all sides.
——————————-
Good.
“All quiet on the Western Front” is the gold standard when it comes to WWI trench war literature.
Was also made into a movie.
Unfortunately, the “War to end all Wars” just morphed into a much more destructive one.
War what is it good for?

#120 Satori on 01.03.22 at 12:02 pm

#103 under the radar on 01.03.22 at 6:26 am
I walk the dog south on Mt Pleasant to Bloor and along Bloor to Yonge then up to Eglinton. I see the homeless tucked away, they too are migrating north looking for more space. Condo’s and very expensive purpose built rentals going up, every third store selling Pot, no public restrooms. Wealth and Poverty and then everybody in between.
_________________________________

Thank Trudeau. The am walk to work smells like skunk. The smell of dope lingers for blocks.

People say its not a stepping-stone drug… whatever, it is for sure a good way to make people too lazy to do anything like ‘work’ when they can zone out to lala land. The only ‘work’ for them is standing in line waiting for the pot shop to open.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.03.22 at 12:07 pm

#116 Sail Away on 01.03.22 at 11:29 am
Wow, TSLA up 10% today.

Or, in Covid-style reporting: TSLA Gains $117 Billion Today!!
———————
Did Elon buy his shares back?

#122 Lead...ers on 01.03.22 at 12:09 pm

#110 HUNGRY BEAR on 01.03.22 at 10:23 am
Doug Ford announcement at 11.
This is very troubling and concerning.
I don’t think the vaccine is working.
Should I go to 100% cash now before the world comes unhinged again?

>>>
Our Lead…ers are sinking us.

Let’s eat the young! They don’t need to socialize, see people, go to school.

Let’s make them go to school on the same thing they play Fortnite on…that will work. Heavens forbid…they catch a cold. We must protect them!

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 12:20 pm

@#118 The Dandy
re Total lockdown.

How else are we going to keep the paranoid conspiracy theorists apart.

#124 Just 2 more weeks... on 01.03.22 at 12:22 pm

Ha ha ha…

Can Justin just issues each citizen one of those giant blow up bubbles, and we’ll turn Canada into a giant game of pinball!

Oh no…sniffles! Put everyone on lockdown!

What was everyone (80%) vaccinating for anyway? Or is that a wrong question to ask?

#125 Next Guest... on 01.03.22 at 12:26 pm

#38 Macduff on 01.02.22 at 4:25 pm
I come to the comments section daily to ready TN’s insightful, if not paranoid comments about the future of our unfolding authoritarian regime in Canada. Any chance he could do a guest column?

None. – Garth

Come on Garth, you know you have days where you just want to call it in.

Maybe that day just write this for title…

Guest Blog: TurnerNation

…and then for text body…

DELETED

…throw in (anti-vax) in case you want to have some extra fun with it.

DONE!

I wonder how many comments such a post would get?

I’m going to guess 177.

#126 mike from mtl on 01.03.22 at 12:26 pm

Told you Dougie will follow. The Feds updated the lockdown freebees months ago fully anticipating a repeat of 2020-2021.

MB & BC up next.

#127 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.03.22 at 12:34 pm

#49 kc on 01.02.22 at 4:56 pm
48 Dolce Vita on 01.02.22 at 4:49 pm

#43 kc

Well, do as Denmark did.

Again, knock yourself out as a DEEP THINKER.

And when you get Omi, drop us a line.

*****

will do.
———————-
DV chooses to be a Covid expert. Why?! what a waist of time.
Who cares go live in your fear cave. Take a powder from posting. OMG.
I don’t even watch the news for good reason. We certainly don’t need a repeater.
Goof ball comes to mind.

#128 Sean on 01.03.22 at 12:45 pm

> Runaway infections causing the CB to take its foot off the brake and delay rate hikes.

What millmech (#15) said. Some of us aren’t surprised.

At some point one has to wonder if war on Covid wasn’t stopped in order to delay rate hikes…

IKEA today announced price hikes (9% on average) and CBs are threatening to hike interest rates to 1.5% this year… Maybe borrowing a mil or two at 3% during 10% inflation isn’t such a bad idea?

#129 Faron on 01.03.22 at 12:50 pm

#61 Penny Henny on 01.02.22 at 5:48 pm
#62 Penny Henny on 01.02.22 at 5:54 pm

While DV’s Twitter feed relay isn’t optimal for sharing knowledge, when taken as individuals you vs he, he’s infinitely more likely to improve someone’s understanding than you, who just complains.

Be brave Penny. Say something.

#130 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.03.22 at 12:54 pm

#61 Penny Henny
Dolce is a freakin goof.
——————–
LOL I missed that post just saw it now.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 1:19 pm

@#127 manipulative lies

“what a waist of time.”
+++
Yes.
New Years resolutions.
Wasted waists wasting away.
Why?
Who’s nose knows….
No?

#132 rk n usa on 01.03.22 at 1:29 pm

to give you an idea of the low supply of homes there are only 37 homes for sale in all of Guelph a city of 135,000!

of those 37 homes only 22 are under a million dollars this includes all dwelling types apartment condos to SFD

#133 neo on 01.03.22 at 2:24 pm

Hi Garth,

Groundhog day huh….

#134 Dr V on 01.03.22 at 3:01 pm

119 Ponz

“War what is it good for?”

Edwin Starr has the answer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQHUAJTZqF0&ab_channel=InnerMusicLove

#135 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.03.22 at 3:06 pm

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 1:19 pm
————————————
Focusing on the negative gets you to know where fast.

I’m not sure what planet we are on anymore.
Remember the 6 and 11oclock news? Its a 24 /7 gong show now.
So much worthless info that doesn’t even apply to the majority.
Kind’a like T2s budget and spending plans. Just hit everything with the fire hose and to put out a campfire. So much waist they don’t have a clue. No accountability and no one cares. Worst leader in history.
Good luck to us 2022!

#136 Barb on 01.03.22 at 6:02 pm

#99 Ding-a-ling!
Handle is correct.

Had you actually read the post, you’d maybe have realized the property tax (years ago) “inclusions” and (now current) “exclusions” were the issue. From 1 page to 3 pages.

Not how much my house is worth.

#137 Ronaldo on 01.04.22 at 2:44 pm

#135 All lies and manipulated u decide on 01.03.22 at 3:06 pm
#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.03.22 at 1:19 pm
————————————
Focusing on the negative gets you to know where fast.

I’m not sure what planet we are on anymore.
Remember the 6 and 11oclock news? Its a 24 /7 gong show now.
So much worthless info that doesn’t even apply to the majority.
Kind’a like T2s budget and spending plans. Just hit everything with the fire hose and to put out a campfire. So much waist they don’t have a clue. No accountability and no one cares. Worst leader in history.
Good luck to us 2022
—————————————————————
Agree with your take on the news and is why I have shut it off the past year. CNN by far the worst. And yes, the worst leader I have witnessed in this country in my 75 years. But the problem is with the people who voted him in.