Onward (2)

What happens next. Part deux. Sorry, Mills.

RTW, broken.
As Omicron morphs into a new-age flu, we endure the end of a long, long, political health crisis. That will last the winter. Nobody comes out of it wearing glory, but a new normalcy will emerge. Of course, most employers will expect most employees to resume their former roles. Office towers that have stood largely vacant for two years will not stay that way. They can’t. But return-to-work will be a painful process and, in many ways, Covid killed the work ethic. So 2022 will be a rough year for Millennials. Many will have to choose. They may have bought houses beyond commuting distance, had babies or grown vastly comfortable with working flex – so ‘going back’ will be a shock. Or impossible. The virus infected and killed a bond of loyalty between employer and employee. This will be the year when resignations are legion. And foolish.

The evil twins.
It bears repeating. Inflation hasn’t been a reality for the entire lives of the biggest cohort of our population. For decades the cost of living has barely budged, so central banks have concentrated on ‘saving’ the economy after serious recessions in the early 1990s, the dot-com crash of 2000, the credit crisis, then the pandemic years. That means monetary policy could be loose and fast, replete with rock-bottom rates and oodles of stimulus. The enemy was the spectre of deflation, and politicians were only too happy to see assets inflate amid a gush of forced liquidity. Well, no more. The new year will be all about rising prices and swelling rates.

A debt reckoning.
How much? How high? Inflation likely won’t nudge past 5%, that that’s double what the Bank of Canada wants. It’s enough to let the policymakers rip once Omicron fades. So three or four hikes in 2022 in both Canada and the US. Same in 2023. The bank prime, now 2.45%, will be 4% easy. Homebuyers in 2020 will renew at double their initial rate when  60-month terms are up. HELOC rates will climb repeatedly. None of this seems to have dawned yet on a population which continues to set records for borrowed funds. It will, eventually, tilting the country further left politically. Young, indebted and feeling NDP.

Like 2021 but weirder.
What of real estate? The new year begins with record-low levels of inventory, still-cheap mortgages and the promise of new buyer incentives. Punitive new taxes on non-resident buyers, flippers and speculators will combine with tougher rules for investors to quell some demand. But all rising mortgage rates will do is incentivize those who can still muster down payments to accelerate their purchases. Unless rates spiral wildly (not happening) or the PR tax exemption is removed from residential real estate (unthinkable), prices and sales will bubble in 2022. More debt. More asset inflation. More capital diverted from productive use to finance resale homes at ever-rising values. But each month brings us closer to an inflection point, after which you will not want a mama of a mortgage.

It doesn’t all suck.
Not even close. The pandemic will be over. Things will feel hopeful next year. Financial markets will reward investors. Economic growth will be robust. Huge amounts of daily stress will be removed as news anchors stop telling you about body counts and positivity rates. Major tax increases in Canada will likely be pushed into the near future. The pandemic will have proven to be a massive wealth-generating gyro for people who already had assets, real or liquid.

Middle-aged or retired folks are reaping the benefit of politicians who borrow against coming decades to subsidize the present. For Millennials heading into that future, it’s an entirely different reality. In the days ahead, strategies to fight back. It’s time.

HNY.

About the picture: Fifteen years of trust, loyalty, respect and companionship with Bandit begat a year of grieving upon his mid-pandemic death. Now a new beginning as Dorothy and I share time and space with a fresh little soul. Suddenly we remember what puppyhood is all about – the needle teeth, zoomies, pee pads, table leg gnawing, sleep deprivation and terminal cutes. Here is Nova.

107 comments ↓

#1 B on 12.31.21 at 3:32 pm

Congratulations on the new pup.

#2 MikeFromVictoria on 12.31.21 at 3:34 pm

Thanks for the island of sanity in an ocean of madness.

#3 Prince Polo on 12.31.21 at 3:36 pm

Any plans for a puppy buddy for Nova? Scotia, natch!

HNY, brah!

#4 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 12.31.21 at 3:37 pm

Dogs are great
beer is good
Nova is a little New Year angel

Congratulations Garth and Dorothy
all the best in 2022

#5 Leftover on 12.31.21 at 3:37 pm

One other little thing to ponder in 2022…Republicans restoring their majority in the Senate and possibly the House.

While the G&M is replete with glum (or smug) stories about the demise of America in today’s issue, one thing is for sure – never bet against the USA. It remains the most dynamic culture and economy in the world, despite what people want you to think.

Following on Garth’s tips about interest rates/debt/real estate, remember – Republicans want rates to go up and the economy to wobble. And they’re going to be in charge.

Just in time for 2024.

#6 Penny Henny on 12.31.21 at 3:37 pm

Nova has got your face Garth.
Grimace and everything.
Good for the both of you, or should I say the three of you.
Congrats!

#7 TurnerNation on 12.31.21 at 3:41 pm

Here’s a cheerful post for 2022.
On the planned Economic Shutdown of Kanada. Quebec – most homoegenous and distinct culture is being hit hardest? (You might also ask yourself why the Least Coast was put behind a permanent virtual Berlin Wall)

As already noted:

———-
#25 TurnerNation on 12.24.21 at 4:28 pm
2022: The Economic lockdowns. I warned, they are not playing around this time. This is the final lockdown into UBI. It’s being slowly phased in via the assistance to the business.
———-


— We pay high taxes for all the gnarly stuff we get! Just another day in a Former First World Country.
Say how many staffers did they just fire??

.Toronto planning for paramedic and fire services staff shortages due to Omicron (cbc.ca)

— Health care STILL being rationed in Kanada. Remember, ALL new spending will be on “climate change”. Get to know the Medical Tourism. Stay.

.N.B. COVID-19 roundup: Non-urgent, elective surgeries and procedures cancelled (cbc.ca)

——-

Paging Alphonse…he nailed it – over one year ago.

“#74 Alphonse Kehaulic on 11.25.20 at 7:40 pm
28 days lockdown. Symbolism. Two 8s = 88 = double infinity. In other words: Endless, in perpetuity, no timeouts for your lockdowns. Put it to you this way: From now on there will never be a time of no lockdowns.
28 Days Later was a movie about a pandemic. Just a coincidence I’m sure.”

#8 Chris Serran on 12.31.21 at 3:43 pm

Congrats on the new pup. We have a 10 year old setter named Scotia….. (and a one year old King Charles Spaniel, so remember well the needle teeth, frequent wakings and all the chewing). Have fun.

#9 Debtslavecreator on 12.31.21 at 3:45 pm

Happy New Year Garth ! Appreciate your blog. Best wishes in 2022

#10 wendi1 on 12.31.21 at 3:50 pm

Congratulations on the new member of the pack! For heaven’s sake, have a better year this time around…

#11 Kathy on 12.31.21 at 3:59 pm

Dorothy and Nova, you are doubly blessed!

#12 Ambi and Vasu on 12.31.21 at 4:02 pm

Our best wishes for 2022 Dorothy and Garth; hope it will be a safe year, happiness and good health throughout.

May God bless us all

#13 the Awakened One on 12.31.21 at 4:10 pm

Oh my Gawwd.. NoVaa ! You’re such a cutie teddy Bear, way cuter than Garth :O) Woof woof woof..

Happy New Year to the three of you Garth! Tickle Nova’s paws for me, would ya?

#14 Pylot Project on 12.31.21 at 4:10 pm

Happy New Year to everyone. Thanks for all that you do Garth. Still waiting for my old boy Pylot to show his fur-face here.

Two things:

I had to WFH last spring, as I was quarantined for two weeks after a co-worker came down with the covid variant of the moment. Yesterday I had to do it again, as Translink completely collapsed because of a wee bit of snow (smh). I hate the lack of definitive lines between work and home. When that line blurrs, you never leave work.

When applying for a job, when did it become OK to ask an applicant their age, race, gender, and what letter of the rainbow alphabet they align with? I recently applied on two positions and the forms state the questions are about “diversity”. Admittedly there is an option in the drop-down menu to choose “prefer not to say”. I don’t care who I work with as long as they are competitant at their jobs. Did I miss the internal memo on this being allowed to be asked? Being white, male, straight and 55+, I haven’t got a hope in hades.

#15 Grandv!ew on 12.31.21 at 4:11 pm

It doesn’t all suck.
Not even close. The pandemic will be over. Things will feel hopeful next year.

Garth
==============================================

Pandemic is not the reason for people to feel bad or desperate. The one and only reason for existential crisis in Canada is real estate. Jobs, Healthcare, Environment, Taxes, War, Death, Pandemics, Indigenous rights…… (insert here anything anyone believes is important) is actually NOT important to Canadians.
I know it is totally myopic view, nevertheless it is a sad truth. Trudeau had a chance to fix this in 2016. All he needed to do was to tell the truth as it was, assign the responsibility for the situation on to the previous administration and make the right calls to put the lunacy of the real estate market to sleep or pause. Instead he got engaged in the woke ism as if that was going to save the world.

Canadians are already disregarding any other issue (unless it is somehow related to housing) and will continue on this path hypnotized by the real estate cartel into the submission to the mantra that outside of Canada is a big bad world that is about to get you. Hence our real estate prices are justified. Never mind that country and citizens are in the debt up to their eyeballs and that realtors are outnumbering the MD’s at the rate of 2 to 1 (or more).
I am Canadian, my children are Canadian and I would without question go to war to defend this nation and its freedoms. With that said i don’t think we are on the right path and we need to very fast figure out the way to reclaim the future for our children.

BTW Link to the big bad world out there….

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/int/0-300000-price/3-beds/2-baths

#16 Mehling on 12.31.21 at 4:14 pm

https://financialpost.com/fp-work/employee-power-and-no-room-to-hide-for-anti-vaxxers-my-top-predictions-for-the-workplace-in-2022

Happy new year Garth and many thanks for your hard work.

PS – deal opportunity for hard working gen Zers and millennials to move up the ranks quickly at their firms by being physically in the office vs the lazy ones who refuse / are never seen. To each their own.

PPS – imagine how many marriages are on the rocks where the main bread winner is anti vax and the other is not. Stress and divorce to quickly follow.

#17 Dolce Vita on 12.31.21 at 4:15 pm

2 cuties in the pic.

One great guy at the keyboard.

Thank you for all that you do Garth, Happy New Year.

Keep being YOU.

————

“Should auld acquaintance be forgot
And days of auld lang syne?”

You betcha when it comes to Covid-19.

#18 under the radar on 12.31.21 at 4:18 pm

Congrats on the pup, I wish you and Dorothy many happy and healthy years with Nova.

#19 Steveston on 12.31.21 at 4:19 pm

Best blog. Thanks.

#20 Cici on 12.31.21 at 4:23 pm

Nova and Dorothy are beauties!

You struck gold, Garth. And thank God you are smart enough to realize it ;-)

#21 earthboundmisfit on 12.31.21 at 4:24 pm

HNY and BW for the new year. Very cute pup.

#22 HNY on 12.31.21 at 4:34 pm

You got a pandemic puppy…….It’s mini-bandit!

#23 Shawn on 12.31.21 at 4:34 pm

RRSP Meltdown faulty math

Sail Away

So melt it down with GICs. The GIC rate will always be near loan rate.

Still works.

**********************
You are usually right but wrong this time.

1. GIC rate will be less than borrowing rate. GIC income is taxable and so ALL the interest paid will be taken up to offset the GIC income. RRSP withdrawal would be fully taxable.

RRSP Meltdown is a bad idea. Let it compound for maximum growth. No matter how big it gets the tax will seldom be higher than 50% and even if it were 60%, 40% of a huge RRSP is still pretty huge.

A bigger RRSP leads to a bigger RRSP “pension” as well as bigger tax? Why sweat the tax so much? What’s next turn down a big DB pension because it’s taxable?

#24 Beagleface on 12.31.21 at 4:34 pm

Not sure which one is cuter, Dorothy or Nova.
Thanks for all your helpful advice, Garth. Your efforts are appreciated more than you’ll ever know.
Happy 2022 to you, Dorothy, Nova and all the blog dogs and guest bloggers.

#25 Yukon Elvis on 12.31.21 at 4:36 pm

Inflation? Yes. The real rate of inflation will be 2-3 times the posted rate. As per usual. Interest rate hikes? Yup. A couple or three measly quarter point hikes but not much more. Real interest rates will remain negative, below the true cost of inflation. Borrowers will continue to be rewarded, savers/investors will continue to get hosed. We will simply inflate our way out of financial trouble. And the libdip coalition government will implement new ways to redistribute your wealth to the have-nots who voted for them as promised.
HNY

#26 Quintilian on 12.31.21 at 4:38 pm

“The pandemic will have proven to be a massive wealth-generating gyro for people who already had assets, real or liquid.”

Maybe not.

At least not for those who levered up, and bought more real estate with the unearned windfall.

The reset, will turn debt into a liability once more.

Easy Come Easy Go.

There is no way Central Bankers will actually glide this thing down with skilful maneuvering, so the reset will come late, on its own, and crash the economy.

Which will turn out ok, because the low rates will match the burnt out economy for the rebuild.

#27 Flamed out in Kitchener on 12.31.21 at 4:38 pm

How awesome! Thanks for sharing a pic of little Nova! … All those puppy days and nights are worth every minute, as you know. They don’t last long enough actually.

Wishing you and Dorothy and Nova a wonderful year ahead, with much joy and new adventures together.

All the best for ’22

PM

#28 willworkforpickles on 12.31.21 at 4:44 pm

There are reasons why optimists projecting change and better times are only seeing the world ahead through rose coloured glasses.
The downward spiral into national debt oblivion has begun and there is no way it will be circumvented despite the many shallow assertions to the contrary.
All the evils that tag along behind an insurmountable debt curse, this insurmountable national debt curse, are going to manifest themselves in ways only becoming more extreme with each passing year.
Live for today, forget tomorrow has never been a very wise path to take in life – But as this decade unfolds, the outcome of it may have many wishing they lived like there was no tomorrow rather than mercilessly having sacrificed for the future instead.
Not that i suggest any take that carefree way to go, living and spending like there’s no tomorrow, but the future isn’t going to unfold as the optimists of today quite envision when, more surely than not – all labour and sacrifice will be rendered in vain.
I don’t speak from a standpoint of someone who has nothing to lose. I have a great deal to lose but do not see a bright future too far ahead for North Americans.
I also think its folly to make predictions merely 1 year out, but prefer projections based from intensive research looking over a much longer timescale instead.

#29 Brunett43 on 12.31.21 at 4:49 pm

HAPPY NEW YEAR, GARTH!

#30 DON on 12.31.21 at 4:50 pm

#126 DON on 12.31.21 at 4:48 pm
#109 Satori on 12.31.21 at 1:55 pm
#75 under the radar on 12.31.21 at 4:56 am

Wonder how many people out there are like this? 53% of Canadians are $200 away from not being able to make ends meet. Approx. 3/4 of Canadians are in deep debt.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/53-of-canadians-within-200-a-month-of-insolvency-mnp-1.1587379

***********
This was in April…before all the talk of inflation.

I think this is an important take.

“Those taking on more debt are becoming increasingly vulnerable to interest rate increases in the future. They might find that their debt becomes unaffordable when that happens,” Bazian wrote.

Higher rates should be a real concern to those who borrow and naively think rates won’t head higher once the economy warrants it. In fact, I find it outrageous that six in ten respondents said that the current low-rate environment makes it a good time to buy things they might not otherwise be able to afford.

We need to stop spending if we can’t afford it – now.”

#31 the Jaguar on 12.31.21 at 4:50 pm

Nova’s expression says, ” There better be a treat at the end of this photo gig”…………

#32 Rochdale GM on 12.31.21 at 4:53 pm

What an absolutely adorable little bundle of fluffy your Nova is!! Congratulations to you both and lots of happy cuddles for 2022.

#33 Linda on 12.31.21 at 5:07 pm

I thought that was Dorothy with a baby Bandit! Nova is adorable & will ensure you both get plenty of fresh air & exercise in the years to come. HNY to all; may 2022 grant everyone good health, peace & prosperity.

#34 ogdoad on 12.31.21 at 5:08 pm

It won’t only be the the Mills that are going to be affected by the changes Mr/Mrs virus has bestowed upon us.

How about school kids that have missed 1-2 years of social connection with their peers and have had to succumb to online BS where very many kids have just fallen through the cracks? Or the teachers who just give a good grade b/c we’ve trained everyone to take the path of least resistance? I know, therapy!!! Yay! Hugs are available…social distancing is NOT an option. I take cash up front…you won’t be disappointed.

…whats going to be the impact when these kids are of Mill age? Hope you know-it-all parents (this blog, obnoxious engineers) are rich enough to support your needy, phone and screen addicted, YouTube, instagram, snapthing, HGTV, ICQ wannabees…at least, they will be prepared for their fate. No, you’re NOT ready. Review multivariable again.

May 2022 bring a new you!

Og

#35 Ed on 12.31.21 at 5:08 pm

Happy New Years to the Turner clan & associates!

I’m making more investment money reading your blog…you should start charging subscription…would get rid of a few that post off topic every day.

Here in Arizona we have fireworks, tequila, BBQ and lots of ammo to bring in the New Year… I can’t seem to find a mask anywhere though.

All the best!

#36 Kevin on 12.31.21 at 5:08 pm

HNY Garth and Dorothy! Love the new pup, what kind of breed is that?

#37 april on 12.31.21 at 5:17 pm

How can home prices continue to increase when prices are out of reach of most except for those who are already in the market and have large equity. Is this what’s going to keep prices up?

#38 R on 12.31.21 at 5:17 pm

Happy New Year ! 2022 will be a very good year .

#39 greyhound on 12.31.21 at 5:24 pm

Wonderful optimism in your new pup! Congratulations.

Predictions for the new year —
How much of a stock market break would it take to panic the central banks? 30%?
Then renewed big govt. stimulus, leading to more inflation and a bull market in the 2nd half. Commodities will do better than bonds.
“Nova” will double in size.
Dog food will cost more.
Cheers!

#40 I don’t know on 12.31.21 at 5:26 pm

#26 Quintilian on 12.31.21 at 4:38 pm

There might be a reset of some sort back to normalcy, but not for real estate.

As you said, people who bought with tons of leverage far from city cores may experience slight price drops, but even that’s uncertain.

With increased population pressures, a return to the workplace in city cores, and further deteriorated affordability (due to rising servicing costs), GTA real estate will become even less affordable than it is now. After a 20 year bull run there are a lot of people with millions of dollars of equity that will just sit in their homes and take them off the market if there is any slight downturn, further constraining supply and putting a hard floor to prices. This is of course ignoring the very human desire for space and land that we all have, the many policy incentives that are in place, demographic trends and so on.

There is real fear out there now. If the system wobbles with rising rates too much, rates will fall again. At that point anyone who hasn’t bought alrewdy will be priced out forever (like the over 40 renter and none investor crowd is now).

The mantra is always buy dirt as soon as you are able. That will never change.

#41 cramar on 12.31.21 at 5:30 pm

Nova? As in Nova Scotia. Cute.

Nova. As in supernova. – Garth

#42 Sail Away on 12.31.21 at 5:31 pm

Congrats on the pup, Garth! This should be fun.

A few puppy pointers:

1. Nothing bad comes from human hands… ever. Only pats, scratches and food. Any and all correction from:
2. A 3-4′ long check cord that stays on permanently for the first 6 months-1 year. Properly tied so it cannot slip and no knots in the running end. This can double as the leash as well as immediate and emotionless removal/timeout from troublemaking per #1.
3. A daily environment in which the pup can do no wrong.

And that’s all that’s needed. Enjoy.

#43 Johnny D on 12.31.21 at 5:34 pm

Happy New Year Everybody!!!

Dorothy and Nova look fantastic…
Garth, thanks for sharing all your wisdom through words of humour and heart. Also thanks for sharing your personal life with us too. In a time when superficiality reigns supreme, you got to bring in some humanity.

#44 I don’t know on 12.31.21 at 5:40 pm

#37 april on 12.31.21 at 5:17 pm

Like our host mentioned recently currently there are around 6000 homes for sale in the gta..a population of around 2-3 million in the Toronto core and 6 million or so in the gta.

That population will continue to increase. Unlike the US, where there are many cities close to one another, Canada’s economic centres are large hubs close to the US border but far from each other (how often do Torontonians move to Calgary? Vancouver?). Travel is made even more difficult in the winter as the terrain is harsh. This ensures most Canadians stay in the city cores for a long time, if not forever, putting big upward pressure on populations.

Add historically low interest rates and access to debt
Add policy incentives like the PR exemption
Add the hugely increased price of materials used to build homes
Add the increased cultural practice of smaller households (less people taking up existing homes than before)
Add in the drive into hard assets from the investment class

And that’s why.

The average person’s best bet? Balanced portfolio as early as possible to keep up.

#45 Armpit on 12.31.21 at 5:41 pm

Happy Nova Year – Garth and Dorothy!!, and the Blog Dogs!!

#46 dragonfly58 on 12.31.21 at 5:46 pm

April, if my area is a predictor of Canada as a whole then no. The prices will remain high regardless of what happens to Canadian buyers financial health.
There seems to be an almost endless supply of money from outside Canada looking for a safe haven. The main countries involved already have enough people from back home { and their children } holding Canadian citizenship to sidestep any restriction on Non Canadian property ownership. Profit on the investment is secondary, short term at least. { the first decade or two } The long game is to get family wealth out of places like India, China, Indonesia, Middle East etc. where political winds can rapidly change and into a safe haven like Canada. An insurance policy if you will.

#47 willworkforpickles on 12.31.21 at 5:46 pm

I’m sitting here wondering what the parents of your pup look like.
I have a friend who used to have a chow like yours, blue tongue and all.
He walked him every single day without fail.

That reminds me, I need to take my dog for a walk. Right now….

Next Year.

#48 THE DANDADA on 12.31.21 at 5:50 pm

Those “Millennials” will soon take over all those high-ranking political positions and then it’s going to be a very different story.

They’ll remember what wall street did to their middle class parents in 2008-09, they’ll remember how the current government burdened them and their friends and family and generation with a mismanaged fiscal account.

The response is going to be so MARVELOUS!

BTW in case you missed it…… 83%

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/16/millennial-millionaires-plan-to-add-more-crypto-in-2022.html

#49 The other Keith in Calgary on 12.31.21 at 6:00 pm

Did COVID kill the work ethic? No, I think for profit corps killed the work ethic. How? By treating their staff as interchangeable cogs in the machine, to be paid as little as possible, and spat out onto the sidewalk like used chewing gum the instant some bean counter showed how they could get away with cutting that cost. When corporations showed they had no loyalty to their staff, the staff learned to return the favour.

Yes the towers are vacant now, mainly because the floors are leased out. But COVID showed that many corporate office tower jobs can be done from home, provided the managers grew up a little and trusted their employees a bit more. Remember those accountants from the first para? Right now they are busy figuring out the cost comparisons between leasing that expensive office space and making at least some people provide their own office space. Between the managers learning to manage remotely and some spyware, WFH is going to be an ongoing thing. I can easily see a corp trying to bring people back while they have to pay the lease, but if they can see that it’s cheaper to cut a couple floors and have people WFM again, they’ll do that. They don’t care what it does to people trying to manage their lives.

#50 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.31.21 at 6:07 pm

YOU CAN”T MAKE THIS SH*T UP.
A bumpy financial ride in the 1990’s, which bears eerie parallels with the situation today, is the lodestar that ended up guiding so much of my thinking today. It goes without saying, as to why I am willing to throw away my reputation as a team player. Why I am willing to go down as a crank, and why I am willing to accept scorn from today’s bootlickers. I am, and always will be, against ” Easy Money,” policies. Keeping interest rates so low that borrowing is cheap and easy. The pauperization of the Wee Little People. Our political masters, the dogs who forgot how to bark all through this financial madness. There is a slang expression we sometimes hear people saying “You can’t make this sh*t up.” This idiom is used to describe a situation, event, or action that is, or seems especially bizarre, or hard to believe. As I said before “You can’t make this sh*t up. Sleep tight my little beauties.

#51 cmj on 12.31.21 at 6:10 pm

A perfect companion for the two of you. Thanks for your insights into 2022. You are blessed to have Nova and Dorothy in your daily life.
Happy New Year!!!

#52 BC Renovator on 12.31.21 at 6:11 pm

Garth, you are the only one Assuring Rates to move higher and steadily.
Lots of Economists and Finance Dudes are saying they can’t. 2, 3 hikes @ .25 and something will break and they will have to reverse course?

How can you be so sure? Thanks and Happy NY

#53 Chameleon on 12.31.21 at 6:16 pm

Well, we now know Garth is a Chevy guy.

Happy New Year!

#54 Penny Henny on 12.31.21 at 6:20 pm

Congrats to Ronaldo and Yukon Elvis!!

If I recall correctly you are both invested similarly to myself and heavy into the Canadian dividend payers.
It’s been a good year, cheers.

#55 Habitt on 12.31.21 at 6:22 pm

Dorothy looks good Mr G and happy with the new pup. Best wishes to you and yours in the new year. With much respect.

#56 leebow on 12.31.21 at 6:25 pm

Happy New Year everyone. May your drawdowns be small, run-ups extensive, and trades timely.

#57 Mr Happy on 12.31.21 at 6:30 pm

Happy New Year Garth & Dorothy (and Nova)!! Wish you all the best this coming year. Thank you for all you do! Thank you Dorothy for putting up with it. May you be richly blessed this coming year!! Cheers!!

#58 Salutations Sally on 12.31.21 at 6:36 pm

With those 2 at your side, 2022 will be an awesome year for you Garth. Thank you for your blog, and please let Dorothy know that we appreciate her lending you to us on an almost daily basis.

#59 ogdoad on 12.31.21 at 6:37 pm

Garth,

BTW, love the name Nova. New beginnings. A concept that touches even the darkest of souls.

Og

#60 Upenuff on 12.31.21 at 6:43 pm

Happy New Year Blog Dogs!!

#61 Mattl on 12.31.21 at 6:48 pm

New pup, fantastic. Congrats.

Appreciate all the content you generate, the discussion it provokes, and the opportunity to engage with you in the comments.

#62 Burnaby Boy on 12.31.21 at 6:48 pm

Nice family picture. You are a man of taste and distinction. Well, good taste anyway. Happy New Year.

#63 Barb on 12.31.21 at 7:05 pm

Oh how lovely to see a photo of Dorothy and the new fur-baby NOVA. Great name! She’s gorgeous (hell…they both are!). Hi Dorothy, so nice to see you.

We’re both glad the Turners have another fuzzy friend to cuddle up with near the fire, and spoil, and pat and groom, and smile at.

Your much-loved Bandit would approve.

Gonna send you some snow…Nova would love it.

Thank you Garth for this beautiful photo. It’s definitely a Happy New Year with little Nova around!

#64 HH on 12.31.21 at 7:12 pm

Gawd, she/he is cute. A little roly poly ball of fluff that you just want to snuggle and cuddle. Look at those little pawdies. Cute as a bug’s ear.

#65 Sunny South on 12.31.21 at 7:18 pm

Saw the pic and scrolled to the bottom to confirm that it was what I thought it was. Congratulations to you and Mrs. T. on your new furry family member. So beautiful. Nova’s a lucky pup. Happy New Year to you and all blog dogs. Wishing you all a safe, happy and successful 2022.

#66 other guy in Vancouver on 12.31.21 at 7:23 pm

Happier New Year, for everyone.

#67 Satori on 12.31.21 at 7:26 pm

Cutest Ball of Fluff Ever!! Congratulations on the new addition to your family Garth and Dorothy!!

#40 I don’t know – 12.31.21 at 5:26 pm
The mantra is always buy dirt as soon as you are able. That will never change.
_____________________________

Wonder how many Americans who lost their homes a decade ago believe that advice now?

I guess we just have to wait and see just how many of the $200 bucks away from broke and 75% of debtors do when those rates rise. It shall be interesting!

#68 Canadian Moose on 12.31.21 at 7:37 pm

It’s almost like Nova is saying “jeesh, pictures, really. So this is what I have to get used to. Can we please get on with our walk. You! With the camera….get moving”

I love it. Congrats to you both and all the very best to the Greater Fool family in 2022! Happy New year! Cheers…

#69 DON on 12.31.21 at 7:42 pm

#52 BC Renovator on 12.31.21 at 6:11 pm
Garth, you are the only one Assuring Rates to move higher and steadily.
Lots of Economists and Finance Dudes are saying they can’t. 2, 3 hikes @ .25 and something will break and they will have to reverse course?

How can you be so sure? Thanks and Happy NY

********

Gotta wonder how many of those finance and economist types also thought that inflation would be transitory. How many have seen this type of inflation before. The half backed argument was that this was caused by supply chain issues but nothing said about all the money printing and low rates and easy credit. Easy credit could change over night as people are confronted with reality.

Then add in the politics and midterm elections in the US. Unlikely, Biden will let inflation go unchecked at the expense of voters. It’s not something you can hide for long. Turkey’s dic tator kept on cutting rates and the currency tanked and inflation is still high…not great on the economic front. Then there is China’s need to stamp out excessive inequality at the expense of their markets.

#70 Unpinned on 12.31.21 at 7:47 pm

HAPPY 2022! On the beach here near Georgia border in this Golf Course Town Gated Community there are Hiring with Bonuses signs everywhere. At the Publix and Kroger many hirees are retired seniors. At one luxury resort a bonus of $1,000. for newly hired. Pork is pricey…3.5 Applewood smoked at $31.00. An expensive ham and the centre aisle of the grocery store is all “high end wine”. Wine twins with chops.

#71 TurnerNation on 12.31.21 at 7:49 pm

Re. Toronto Ambulance shortages – look at Toronto Fire Dept active calls, besides the fires every other call now is a Medical call, with a single vehicle sent out.
I check this site when I hear sirens nearby, previously never seen it like this with Medicals all over.

So how many people were fired at EMS? All our high taxes..and you are on your own in 2022.

https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/public-safety-alerts/alerts-notifications/toronto-fire-active-incidents/

#72 Oakville Rocks! on 12.31.21 at 8:13 pm

Happy New Year to all.

Garth, thank you for all you do here and happy to meet Miss Nova. She has found a great home.

Cheers to a fantastic 2022.

#73 WUL on 12.31.21 at 8:28 pm

Evening Garth,

Ft. McMurray sends its wish to you and Dorothy that every day in ‘22 is replete with happiness and fine health. And no -40 degree days. That would be boffo luxe. Hi FLOP and Catskinner on the yellow D9.

WUL

#74 Outrage on 12.31.21 at 8:31 pm

Who really thinks inflation is 5%,more like 8 % to 10%. Many business will raise prices for 2022 so its going to get worse. If prime is 2.5% and inflation is 5%, we have negative rates. Thanks to T2,Canada is FUBAR. Higher inflation next year, no interest rate hike because of debt service and assets will bubble up more. Also price controls coming.
The USA is also screwed, huge debt, record high trade deficit and a devaluing dollar will make 2022 a recession year.

#75 Puzzled in Mtl on 12.31.21 at 8:31 pm

Thank you Garth for what you are doing.
Thank you Dorothy for allowing Garth to spend so much time helping people. And please, remind him we want updated pictures of Nova all year long.
Bonne année.

#76 Squire on 12.31.21 at 8:35 pm

Happy “nova” year Garth

#77 Yukon Elvis on 12.31.21 at 8:43 pm

#54 Penny Henny on 12.31.21 at 6:20 pm
Congrats to Ronaldo and Yukon Elvis!!

If I recall correctly you are both invested similarly to myself and heavy into the Canadian dividend payers.
It’s been a good year, cheers.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Right you are. Made out like a bandit. Congrats to you as well and HNY.

#78 Yorkville Renter on 12.31.21 at 8:46 pm

HAPPY NEW YEARS EVERYONE

Hoping 2022 is a great year for all.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.21 at 8:51 pm

New Puppy.
New Year.
Revived Blog.
All Good.

#80 VicPaul on 12.31.21 at 8:57 pm

Happy New Year Garth, Dorothy, Nova and all who frequent this pathetic blog to joust, signal and share a viewpoint unique to their circumstance.

May we all have learned a few lessons this year – about our world and the people in it…but, most importantly, about ourselves and how we can fit into and contribute to this puzzle.

Peace )

M58BC

#81 Common Sense on 12.31.21 at 9:14 pm

Garth – why are resignations foolish? Why not be part of the great resignation and benefit from rising pay and the competition for talent? It’s extremely difficult to get good talent right now and wage inflation will result for those who jump ship.

RE: RSP meltdown

I gave an explanation and example to help educate readers of the blog, which seems to be the blog’s purpose. Numbers chosen were for simplicity. Each individual’s circumstances and risk tolerance is their own, and the specifics must be calculated for each circumstance. I admit it’s tough to wrap my head around the right situation to make it worthwhile, but that was not the point of my post.

Some eschew risk to their detriment, like GIC investors. Some take on a lot of risk – think crypto – and succeed or die on that sword. The biggest risk with risk is not understanding it. So self education and knowledge are key.

It’s disappointing to see overly simplistic examples being taken as a basis to advocate or justify one’s own personal situation. It’s confirmation bias at it’s finest. Stick to the facts and leave your own personal risk tolerance, situation, and predilections out of it. Educate and discuss and let others apply what they learn for themselves.

PS : HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! May 2022 be better.

#82 Faron on 12.31.21 at 9:20 pm

Happy New Year Garth and co.

Me? Hoping to get the bathroom done. Finish the Oregon desert bike tour. Lots of sailing. Maybe run 100mi again?

#83 Stuck in NB on 12.31.21 at 9:26 pm

Happy New Year Garth and y’all!

2021 didn’t suck, hope 2022 will be even better – to the Moon!

#84 Russ on 12.31.21 at 9:30 pm

Happy New Year to Garth, Dorothy and little Nova.
And let’s not forget a Joyous Noel to Dog, Doug, Ryan and Sinan too.

Be a good little puppy, Nova. Garth needs you.

Cheers, R

#85 Cheese on 12.31.21 at 9:40 pm

Happy new year!

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.21 at 9:41 pm

@#118 Upenuff
“Just drove through Canada’s poorest Postal Code Area (Vcrs- Main and Hastings) Tents set up on all the sidewalks for blocks…. 100s of homeless just wondering about in the cold…”
+++

In 1981 the cops would arrest vagrants and drinks on the sidewalks at Main and Hastings.
In 1991 the “progressives” in City Hall had the police “back off” and the tents appeared…on one block.
In 2001 the tents had grown to 2 blocks , sidestreets, alleyways.
2021?
Blocks and blocks and blocks of Hastings street ( at least 10 blocks of Hastings st last Summer when I drove through).

The Wokesters, the four Pillars, Harm reduction.

Call it what you will.
An utter disaster of misery, overdose deaths and talking talking and more talking.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.21 at 9:43 pm

Nova
Latin for New.

Cute pup.
Congrats on the foray into puppydom.

Happy New Year folks.
Don’t overindulge.

Hangovers are for the amateurs

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.21 at 9:48 pm

@#71 Turnernation
“Toronto Ambulance shortages – look at Toronto Fire Dept active calls, besides the fires every other call now is a Medical call, with a single vehicle sent out.”

+++

Fentanyl overdoses will overwhelm your EHS.
The politicians will talk and talk and talk.
Get used to it.

#89 twofatcats on 12.31.21 at 10:35 pm

Dec 31 Today’s flipped ‘Principal Residences’

https://www.zolo.ca/fort-erie-real-estate/148-albany-street
https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/aD6p781v0nr3wRQr/148-ALBANY-Street-Fort-Erie-40153236-X5338462

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/J6Em7bnrdog7XBeq/1955-Grayson-Rd-Fort-Erie-X5238140-40114499
https://www.zolo.ca/fort-erie-real-estate/1955-grayson-avenue#sold-history

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/bqB176Weg1K3ZajD/68-Sherry-Lane-Dr-Hamilton-L8K5R4-X5456214-H4123420

#90 Midnight's on 12.31.21 at 10:38 pm

Thanks for all you do.
God Bless you and your wife. :)

#91 Delmicron! on 12.31.21 at 10:49 pm

Delta and Omicron had a baby! They named it…

Delmicron!

https://www.wionews.com/world/after-delmicron-its-flurona-israel-reports-first-double-infection-of-covid-and-flu-441504

#92 twofatcats on 12.31.21 at 11:05 pm

Sad – the seller clearly sees the future is in residential real estate which is why he is trying to change the zoning from commercial to residential.

https://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/ontario/port-colborne/120-main-street-w/16781949/mls40192031/

#93 RS on 12.31.21 at 11:09 pm

Well let’s shine a light on what was once a great company
to work for,Westjet.My daughter worked 4+ years there
and loved her job and was admired by her peers and
managers.COVID appeared and due to over staffing
she volunteered to 2 leave of absence in order to save
another from losing their job and she was able to work
longer hours at her second job.When she finally was recalled they gave her less than a week to begin retraining which due to her current job was not easily done.Westjet could care less and and I’m sure took
the pandemic opportunity to hire a new employee at a lower hourly rate.Now Westjet is wining because they are
short staffed never mind the fact management is utterly useless.So this discussion of staff loyalty goes both ways.
Many service industries are forcing potential staff to rethink what is important in life and working holidays and weekends at minimum wage is no longer accepted as the norm.The restaurant where my daughter works cannot find experienced staff and is obviously not alone in this situation.

#94 Ronaldo on 12.31.21 at 11:29 pm

#77 Yukon Elvis on 12.31.21 at 8:43 pm
#54 Penny Henny on 12.31.21 at 6:20 pm
Congrats to Ronaldo and Yukon Elvis!!

If I recall correctly you are both invested similarly to myself and heavy into the Canadian dividend payers.
It’s been a good year, cheers.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Right you are. Made out like a bandit. Congrats to you as well and HNY.
—————————————————————-
Yes Penny, it was another good year. My investments are divided into 2 portfolios. 1st Portfolio is my conservative and boring 65/35 Balanced Fund and a few other higher risk funds that make up 88.5% of the total of the two portfolios (containing TFSA and Non Reg.) returned 11.85%.

The other portfolio which I call my Casino portfolio (my play money) which makes up 11.5% of the total of the two portfolios returned 42.4%. It also contains a TFSA and Non Reg. accounts. I crystalized a good portion of that portfolio to capture my gains and held 50% in cash at year end.

My total return for the two portfolios was 15.33%. Now for some rebalancing in the New Year and see what happens in 2022.

#95 fishman on 01.01.22 at 12:04 am

Had Christmas dinner with Paul, the Dieppe vet. 101 now & though he didn’t go for seconds, like at 99, still finished his glass of wine. This covid (unseen enemy) got me reminiscing of a long ago Christmas dinner in Italy for Canadian soldiers. A Propaganda stunt filmed in a bombed church by the CBC. A “touch of home” on the battlefield. His Legion buddy Smoky Smith was on the line & told his men, “don’t go to that dinner, the German snipers will get you when you make your way back.” Which is exactly what happened. So far the four of us at the dinner are ok.
These two guys were loved by their men. Even more so by women. Paul went AWOL 8 days before the Dieppe landing to elope with a British naval officers’ daughter. Smoky was demoted to private around 6 times. When the brass decided to award Smoky the VC he was called to Rome. He was guarded 24 hr/day till after the ceremony in the Kings private quarters in London. They were both escape artists. After the second time Paul escaped the Germans showed him a bullet & said,” next time this is for you.”
I asked Paul at dinner, how come he was in two regiments,the South Saskatchewan & the Regina Rifles? Most soldiers are only in one. “The army, they screw everything up.”
Got any girlfriends happening at your place? Pretty good odds & some of them gotta have dough. Pretty uptown spot up on Oak st.. “One comes around & always trying to help me at Bingo. Cause I miss a few calls. But I don’t like her much, she brags too much.”
So there you have it. Some Greatest Generation advice for the Millennial Generation. 1/Beware CBC freebies. 2/You can run but you can’t hide, 3/The army screws everything up. 4/Don’t let some pushy old broad horn in on your action.

#96 Yukon Elvis on 01.01.22 at 12:35 am

I can remember 2021 like it was yesterday.
HNY.

#97 Faron on 01.01.22 at 12:54 am

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.21 at 8:35 am

@#59 Faron
“receiving some friendly flirtation, etc.”

+++

Did he give you his number?

Well, I did hear that BillyBob is in town.

Regardless, I’ll take what I can get as I age. I’m admiration agnostic.

#98 Mrs Fool on 01.01.22 at 5:28 am

What a lovely photo!

Happy 2022!! May the new year bring health and lots of joy for you all.

#99 In Dog We Trust on 01.01.22 at 7:27 am

Luv the good girl’s name, Nova… We’ve had 3 pups thru out our homes over nearly 40 years… In Sept our latest passed after 14 years… In the same Canadian fashion our next one will be called Tario,,, thnx 4 the idea…

#100 Ballingsford on 01.01.22 at 9:11 am

All the best in 2022 Garth, Dorothy, and Nova! So happy that you have a new doggie! Have fun!

Happy New Year to all the blog dogs too!

#101 Bezengy on 01.01.22 at 10:28 am

Beautiful pic. Happy New Year everyone!

—————

Spoke with a real smart dude about real estate this week. He informed me house prices will never go down in Niagara, ever. Based solely on his beliefs I am predicting an overall housing correction of 25% nation wide this year. When almost everyone in the country is brainwashed with his kind of thinking, I think it’s a slam dunk.

#102 Secret Eyes on 01.01.22 at 10:31 am

Happy New Year! Agree that we’ll want periodical Nova growth updates. Is Nova another rescue dog?

#103 Ian on 01.01.22 at 11:56 am

Hi Nova! What a beautiful dog

#104 Matt on 01.01.22 at 12:30 pm

There was never any bond of loyalty between employee and employer. It was a one-way relationship. We just all had to learn the hard way.

I wouldn’t bond with you, either. – Garth

#105 Diamond dog on 01.01.22 at 5:11 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

3 highly important facts concerning Omicron. 1st is, according to the CDC that under new leadership is clawing back some of the reputation it lost, if you are unvaccinated you have a 17x more likely chance of visiting a hospital. (I think that number is high, but with ICU’s its low)

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

2ndly, according to the data out on Wednesday, 85.5% of the adult population aged 18 or older has been vaccinated in the U.S. . Let those numbers marinate, it’s the reason why we will potentially see a positive Q1 (albeit, barely). On that note, can anyone with a straight face imagine a positive Q1 if Trump were president?

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total

3rdly, Omicron, at least according to the limited data we’ve seen so far (coupled with exploding confirmed cases world wide) is 4.2x (Japan study) more contagious to 5.4x (U.K study) than Delta. Delta, I will remind, had an R-naught value of 8.5 according to the CDC over the summer.

The data is limited, but what limited data we have to go by in comparing the severity between Delta and Omicron is 11% with 53,000 cases. Considering the margins of error with demographics and 53,000 Omicron cases 90% vaccinated in the U.K., we are basing this off of approx 5500 cases.

We need more data to be conclusive, but there’s a chance that Omicron isn’t less severe than Delta. If it is low double digits or no difference, without question Omicron is a more dangerous virus due to its elevated level of contagion comparable to the measles of all virus’s. We don’t know what that means? Watch worldometer, it will show you:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

“The pandemic is over, it’s a new age flu”, chuckles, tell that to everyone getting sick “after vaccination” and working emergencies in hospitals, that’s watering it down slightly. But in the same breath I gotta say, where would we without vaccines? Sure, breakthrough cases will be high (potentially 85%) but they are keeping people from ICU’s. They bent but they didn’t break.

Pfizer has a pill, vaccines will become more streamlined to account for mutations to be delivered closer to October and the world will learn. But until it does learn to dose up consistently and not be complacent, it’s unwise for us to put a fork in it.

I mean, just imagine what a terrorist like Trump can do with another variant or whole new strain! :)

#106 Heath on 01.01.22 at 6:37 pm

All the best the New Year has to bring your way Garth and Dorothy. I look forward to your blog everyday I do however have difficulty at times with the acronym’s
Must be cause I’m an old fart.

#107 HP on 01.02.22 at 11:48 am

Congratulations Garth and Dorothy, on your dear Nova!