Of babes & Bitcoin

As the Omicron tsunami builds, keep your cool. Worse is coming. You can’t do much about a virus, but you can definitely mold your financial future. The pandemic will be temporary. Seriously. Don’t let it paralyze, or lead to bad decisions.

In that context, let’s hop on my new e-scooter for a trip to the land of tats and angst for another version of Cries from Millennials.

“I found the blog in Summer 2020 and I’ve been reading it since,” says Liam, who’s also learned the benefit of the MSU. “Great stuff. I’ve learned a lot and this summer finally got around to opening a TFSA.”

I finally have reason to ask for your guidance. (If you happen to bring it up on the blog, please keep anonymous, we haven’t told everyone yet.) The old lady is pregnant. It’s our first and it’s still early. But from a financial standpoint, what should we be aware of?

We’re 25, married in September and together since high school with $124,000 household gross income. I’m a fed in Ottawa and she pushes paper for a construction company. Between TFSAs, HISAs, and our checking accounts we have around $50,000 total saved up. We want to buy a house (it’s important to us) but we’re in no rush.  So, what do I need to know?”

Sheesh, Liam. The “old lady”? Talk like that will get you exiled from your entire generation and, in Ottawa, possibly arrested. Get with the program. Demasculate or perish in T2’s Canada, dude.

Here are some ‘We’re pregnant’ suggestions: first, chill with the house thing. Babies do not need real estate. They don’t even require a room. They don’t care if you lease or have a variable-rate mortgage. They don’t know who Tiff Macklem is. Billions of babies are raised in rental accommodation around the planet and turn out just fine. Besides, the housing market is nuts and (mostly) you don’t have enough money to buy anything without move to the boonies and using extreme leverage. Bad ideas.

Also try to avoid the No.2 biggest mistake new parents (especially dads) make, which is to gorge on insurance when junior emerges. The odds of you dying and leaving a struggling family are slim, plus being a federal employee you already have baked-in coverage (check your benefits package). If you do succumb, get a ten or 20-year term policy which – given your age – is cheap. Nothing else.

Finally, open an RESP when the kid arrives and you acquire a SIN. Put in $2,500 a year and collect a 20% grant – the easiest money you can make. Invest in equity-based growth ETFs. Do not buy from one of the baby vultures, but open a self-directed plan with an online brokerage. And understand that, at 25 with a family, your life has unalterably changed. Respect her.

Okay, so Kurtis has an opposite problem. Too much money. Well, it’s not actually cash. It’s crypto. “I enjoy reading your blog. Judging by the demographic surveys, I’m not your target audience, but I appreciate your perspective,” he says. “I read Doug’s post about Bitcoin, agree with his points, and want to share my view.”

I’m a 20-something year old geek. I purchased Bitcoin almost a decade ago and now find myself with nearly $200,000 in cryptocurrency. My cost basis as close to $0 as to make no difference. Gradually I’ve been attempting to whittle down my position, selling ~10-20% during each bull market.

I like the technology of cryptocurrencies and see many uses for them. At this point, though, none are ready for mass-market adoption. There are too many scams, too many risks, and not enough safeguards. Every year another Bitcoin exchange goes belly-up, running away with user’s deposits.

I’m in a strange position. I have a large amount of an extremely volatile asset. I’m no crypto evangelist and I recognize I’ve hit it big off a gamble. This past month I’m down ~25% but that’s nothing compared to my 50,000% gain. So, what should I do? Fully sell my best performing “investment” and re-invest into a stable portfolio? I don’t need the money right now and have other investments. Or should I keep riding the crypto rollercoaster, selling a fraction of my position each year?

You seem to understand this is not investing. It’s gambling. Bitcoin has value because people buy it, not because of any intrinsic worth. Fiat currency, in contrast, is backed by governments, nations, CBs and the power to tax. It’s money. Crypto is not. It never will be. Inherent volatility makes it utterly impractical as a medium of exchange. Yes, you made a bundle. Yes, it could all be lost. We would never put crypto in a client’s portfolio because that would be rash, irresponsible and shatter fiduciary responsibility.

So, Kurtis, get out. You scored. Dump half now and the rest in the new year – to spread out the capital gains tax hit. Or, if you don’t like paying tax just hang on until it blows up. And it will.

About the picture: “This is a picture of my rescue Remy,” write Jonathan in Toronto. “She is 10 years old and is the sweetest dog.  Unfortunately her kidney’s are starting to fail so everyday is a blessing. “

119 comments ↓

#1 JR on 12.19.21 at 12:49 pm

You’re right Garth, it will blow up. Bitcoin to 100K

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 12:59 pm

Two investors in their 20’s with financial acumen and substantially on their way to eventual Financial Freedom.
Unlike Monkey Brains.
They are…..
Way ahead of the plebian curve.
Well done.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 1:07 pm

hmmm.
When one criticizes a former high ranking Communist politbureau member….

You better be ready to recant…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-china-peng/china-tennis-star-peng-denies-that-she-made-accusation-of-sexual-assault-idUSKBN2IY0G8

Or disappear…..

Either way.
It raises another question.

WHY is Canada participating in the Beijing 2022 Winter Show-limpics to promote Chinas’ dictatorial system?

To appease the International Olympic Committee?
The Lords of the Rings?

#4 Dolce Vita on 12.19.21 at 1:35 pm

For the Omicron curious.

UK Omicron cases, hospitalizations and deaths Dec. 13-19 (news cases LHS scale, other 2 RHS scale):

https://i.imgur.com/XODekWI.png

Data from: UK Health Security Agency.

Like many medical experts say too early to tell on deaths. Looking like “mild” applies to the symptoms not to Omicron’s killing power.

BTW, Dec. 13 to 19 increase:

687%

[no biggie]

I say if deaths continue low and near everyone gets infected…Pandemic over I’m guesstimating end of March 2022 *:

* SWAG
New cases best fit curve is a function of x cubed (y = Ax^3)

A = 37,101 new cases
x = 59.7 days
y = 7.9 Billion (pop. Earth – assuming it does not go way down for some known reason)

————–

Of course that assumes all have lost their minds and do nothing to prevent an Omicron infection.

One thing for sure is that the unvaxd will get right ripped thru by Omicron.

As before, with those % increases look to a lot of working people sidelined, e.g., hospital, essential services, supply chain etc.

GDP will take a hit until Omicron done with us (provided there isn’t going to be a an Sono Omicron or whatever Bill C-16 pronoun you prefer).

#5 mark on 12.19.21 at 1:37 pm

What do the most efficient portfolios in history have in common?

#6 IHCTD9 on 12.19.21 at 1:43 pm

Maybe it’s time to consider selling the house, plopping the proceeds into the B+D, and exiting the Trudeau crazy train at 55 or so.

It might be tight till 60, but I’m not opposed to delivering auto parts a couple days per week if need be. 45k/yr should rent us a decent apt and cover all the bills easy.

At some point, I’m gonna call it and unload the RE before it blows, and I guess that’ll be the second the B+D/RE invested proceeds cover the bills comfortably. No sense waiting any longer than that. It would suck retiring right into the face of an RE/economic meltdown.

#7 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.19.21 at 1:46 pm

#1 JR on 12.19.21 at 12:49 pm
You’re right Garth, it will blow up. Bitcoin to 100K
———————-
Yep.
100K Turkish Lira.
Or 100K Venezuelan Peso.

#8 Tsunami of Omicron on 12.19.21 at 1:49 pm

Tsunami of runny noses…u have completely lost your senses.

When I see the schleps staying in line at LCBO to get a free test I fully understand why Canada is going to be THE WORST PERFORMING market economy in the WESTERN world until 2060..

I will be long gone from this sh.ithole run by demented elites that think that importing uneducated slaves from 3rd world and giving them 100yr mortgages passes for an economic plan.

#9 twofatcats on 12.19.21 at 1:57 pm

Dec 19 Today’s flipped ‘Principal Residences’

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/GMnKYqpQjL53w1Qr/2040-SHORE-Road-80-London-N6K0G3-40193174

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/Xawjy41nrj67rR18/464-East-13th-St-Hamilton-L9A4A6-X5451014-H4122993

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/wJKR7P8nLgG7XeLP/1210-Davenport-Rd-Toronto-M6H2G8-C5115171

#10 Quintilian on 12.19.21 at 2:02 pm

Kurtis, Bitcoin is bogus, fake, and has no real intrinsic value.

It is worthless.

And yes, it will blow up.

BUT not just yet.

In the short term, as it becomes clear that Central Bankers are basically frauds as well, there will likely be some affinity toward Crypto, and also the gold bugs will be making the media circuit.
So, it may not be peak, but the longer you stay in Crypto, the greater the chances you will end up Cry(ing).

Now back to Central Bankers, they will still be relevant, but like organized religion, they will lose its influence, and be thought of as nothing more than a Pascal Wager.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 2:04 pm

@#5 mark
What do the most efficient portfolios in history have in common?”
+++

Efficiency.

That was easy.

#12 Omicron Kenobi on 12.19.21 at 2:04 pm

Liam and Kurtis, don’t worry.

I am coming for both of you. In January.

#13 Shawn Allen on 12.19.21 at 2:05 pm

Mortgage Math?

#8 Tsunami of Omicron on 12.19.21 at 1:49 pm said:

“I will be long gone from this sh.ithole run by demented elites that think that importing uneducated slaves from 3rd world and giving them 100yr mortgages passes for an economic plan.”

***************************
The vast majority of amortizations are 25 years.

The math of the matter is that with very low interest rates, mortgages are being paid down faster in the early years and equity built faster than anytime ever before. (The equity part relies on house prices not falling of course).

Those younger people that bought homes in the past decade or more have made out like boomers!

See the amortization schedule and graphs here:

https://dominionlending.ca/calculators/payment-amount.php

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.19.21 at 2:06 pm

#3 CEF

Either way.
It raises another question.

WHY is Canada participating in the Beijing 2022 Winter Show-limpics to promote Chinas’ dictatorial system?
—————————
First, Canada will get at shitload of Medals again.
And the populace will go crazy.
Second, why don’t you stick with stuff you understand?

#15 Balmuto on 12.19.21 at 2:10 pm

“Fiat currency, in contrast, is backed by governments, nations, CBs and the power to tax.” – Garth

You mean it’s printed by governments. It used to be backed by gold but now it’s backed by nothing. I can’t redeem it for a fixed quantity of anything. I can only exchange it for a product or service at a price a vendor is willing to accept. Same as Bitcoin.

The only intrinsic difference is that I can’t file my taxes in Bitcoin. Yet. At least one state in the U.S. has allowed this though (Ohio). More will follow.

In the future I believe that fiat will actually be backed by Bitcoin – in a loose sense. As central banks globally move away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, they won’t replace it with another government’s currency. Certainly not the Yuan. It’s going to be a decentralized, trustless, digital currency with a fixed supply. It’s going to be Bitcoin.

Did you miss ‘The power to tax’? That’s the foundation of any national currency. Bitcoin is backed by faery dust. – Garth

#16 KLNR on 12.19.21 at 2:12 pm

@#4 Dolce Vita on 12.19.21 at 1:35 pm
For the Omicron curious.

UK Omicron cases, hospitalizations and deaths Dec. 13-19 (news cases LHS scale, other 2 RHS scale):

https://i.imgur.com/XODekWI.png

Data from: UK Health Security Agency.

Like many medical experts say too early to tell on deaths. Looking like “mild” applies to the symptoms not to Omicron’s killing power.

BTW, Dec. 13 to 19 increase:

687%

[no biggie]

I say if deaths continue low and near everyone gets infected…Pandemic over I’m guesstimating end of March 2022 *:

* SWAG
New cases best fit curve is a function of x cubed (y = Ax^3)

A = 37,101 new cases
x = 59.7 days
y = 7.9 Billion (pop. Earth – assuming it does not go way down for some known reason)

————–

Of course that assumes all have lost their minds and do nothing to prevent an Omicron infection.

One thing for sure is that the unvaxd will get right ripped thru by Omicron.

already is.
upwards of 90% of folks in the ICU are unvaxxed.

#17 Dolce Vita on 12.19.21 at 2:15 pm

Anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr XMas party.

Guests were told to be vaccinated or tested for COVID-19.

Blames wife.

——————

“I believe that every person has the right to make health decisions free from coercion, threats or force by governments, employers and fellow citizens.”

…unless, it’s wifey.

Carpetbagger.

#18 Tarot Card on 12.19.21 at 2:20 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
And thanks for yesterdays post Ryan, excellent job on forecasting.

Reading the news today makes you think the world will end.
First up Denmark is predicting hospitals will be overrun in 3 weeks, due to the new strain of virus!
Next, three top US retired generals are predicting a civil war in 2024 because of the military being split. Citing many of the January 6 rioters were ex military or current military.
Makes me think back when Le Belle Province was voting to separate and the military flew all the jets out of Quebec.

Next up was Trudeau’s interview, so governments no longer spend money but invest.
When asked where the money coming from, gosh you need to read it to believe our leader can spew such Nonsense!

surely if he truly beliefs what he is saying we are doomed.

Anyone with some good news for a Sunday?

#19 Shawn Allen on 12.19.21 at 2:21 pm

Even in Edmonton?

Buying a house 10 years ago with a low interest rate has actually worked out not bad in terms of the equity built up. And that’s despite approximately no change in the value of the house. (Assumes there was no job loss and no selling and moving.)

Ultra low interest rates do work wonders…

#20 HUNGRY BEAR on 12.19.21 at 2:22 pm

BITCOIN……Made the blog 2 weekends in a row.

I remember the times in the 90s when everyone thought the Internet was a bogus nothing that wouldnt last either.

The Internet apparently has a use. – Garth

#21 B on 12.19.21 at 2:22 pm

Liam,

We have a young baby and are looking to get a detached house (buy or rent). Currently we rent a newer townhouse and have a noisy neighbour on one side that wakes the baby up while she’s napping. It’s ducking brutal.

1) A 2-bed+ unit will make life MUCH better. A 1-bed doesn’t really work (even for a couple months), you will need the separation to be able to sleep/rest, otherwise the baby owns the space and you have no room for you and the wife.

2) Invest in a good crib/mattress for the baby. Look into Obasan mattresses (they are Canadian). Life was hell until our baby started to sleep better after we bought a good mattress.

3) The best high chair is the Stokke Tripp Trapp

#22 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.19.21 at 2:29 pm

THE CONSEQUENCES OF BIG NUMBERS!
You have to remember, the person who puts out the story, gets to shape the narrative. Now, how does this apply to the new virus (Omicron) which by all reports, is highly contagious. First up, Big Pharmacy, logic would indicate that it would be in their best interest financially, to issue dire warns, get vaccinated or suffer the consequences, as in your own personal toe tag at the morgue. Next up, the financial industry, reporting, nothing to see here. Stay the course, and all will be well with regard to your portfolio, be it Stocks, Real Estate, or a multitude of other hard assets. Last, but not least, our elected politicians, this depends on which side of the house you sit. The elected party, can do no wrong. The opposition party, screams the elected are killing off the old people along with the economy. Full circle to my heading. “The Consequences Of Large Numbers.” and how it relates to the word “MILD.” A virus that is terrifically contagious, but not terribly lethal
i.e. (“mild”) Omicron, still ends up killing far more people than the more severe but less contagious variants (DELTA) because the number of infected people becomes consequently large very quickly. To demonstrate the basic concept, consider a hypothetically variant (DELTA) that is only mildly contagious, i.e. each person ends up infecting 1.2 people, but with high lethality, i.e. 1% of those infected die within a few months of contracting the pathogen. If 10 million people eventually contact the disease, 100,000 (1%) will die.
Now consider a severely contagious variant, i.e. (Omicron) each infected person ends up infecting 3.5 other people, that is “MILD” in terms of, killing 0.5% of all those infected.
If this far more contagious variant( “Omicron”) infects 100 million people, 500,00 will die- five times the number of those who died from the much more lethal variant, (DELTA)
These outsized consequences of the highly contagious (“MILD) Omicron virus manifest not just in deaths but in hospitalizations and long-term disabilities generated by the viral disease.
Right now the stock and real estate market is wafting gently on the feel- good buzz of the word (MILD) which is taken to mean not just mild consequences of the illness on individuals, but near-zero consequences for the economy and markets. And as my Mom used to say, “It’s all fun and games until someone gets their eye put out.” Amen Brother.

#23 Dolce Vita on 12.19.21 at 2:35 pm

‘Been quiet about Omicron Canada assuming, as before, Canada has horseshoes up its derriere when it comes to Covid.

From the shape of the curve I’d say Canada has a lot more Omicron than they’re telling you about:

https://i.imgur.com/EXvWuUD.png

[pretty much vertical]

Imagine what the curve would look like if Canada tested like normal 1st World countries such as the UK and Denmark:

https://i.imgur.com/UaRyYHK.png

[NB the Omicron concern testing increase]

PS:

South Africa test curve about = BC test curve, maybe a bit lower.

——————–

A LOT of people are going to be sidelined in Canada with Omicron. Bad for the economy until it finishes.

#24 Old white dude on 12.19.21 at 2:42 pm

Sheesh, Liam. The “old lady”? Talk like that will get you exiled from your entire generation and, in Ottawa, possibly arrested. Get with the program. Demasculate or perish in T2’s Canada, dude.

Or be hip like Garth and call people “dude”!

I see you have a hard time with sarcasm. – Garth

#25 Paddy on 12.19.21 at 2:49 pm

If you’re ever feeling down about your life, just watch some Timeline-World History Documentaries and you’ll soon realize how spoiled we really are. I just watched “the life of a dark age farmer” episode. Link below.
I feel like crypto can go either way. Why not hold a few K?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7jgu7EJ9A8A

#26 Monkey brains on 12.19.21 at 3:09 pm

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 12:59 pm

Two investors in their 20’s with financial acumen and substantially on their way to eventual Financial Freedom.
Unlike Monkey Brains.
They are…..
Way ahead of the plebian curve.
Well done.
————————————-

You know you’re smarter than the average” fart” when he starts complimenting investors who have a substantial investment in Bitcoin, which as Garth and the 20 year-old both agree, is tantamount to gambling.

But hey, no surprise there given his predilection for comments like this.

#27 Michael in-north-york on 12.19.21 at 3:44 pm

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 1:07 pm

hmmm.
When one criticizes a former high ranking Communist politbureau member….

You better be ready to recant…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-china-peng/china-tennis-star-peng-denies-that-she-made-accusation-of-sexual-assault-idUSKBN2IY0G8

Or disappear…..

Either way.
It raises another question.

WHY is Canada participating in the Beijing 2022 Winter Show-limpics to promote Chinas’ dictatorial system?

To appease the International Olympic Committee?
The Lords of the Rings?
===

Canadian diplomats aren’t coming to the Olympics, and rightfully so. But the athletes will be participating.

A complete withdrawal would, in effect, punish our athletes. In many disciplines, the athletes have to train very hard since childhood, and then they only get 1 or 2 shots at the Olympic medals while they are still at their prime. Skip one, the next comes in 4 years and you are out of luck against the younger competitors.

#28 Shawn Allen on 12.19.21 at 3:44 pm

What backs the fiat dollar?

#15 Balmuto on 12.19.21 at 2:10 pm said:
“Fiat currency, in contrast, is backed by governments, nations, CBs and the power to tax.” – Garth

You mean it’s printed by governments. It used to be backed by gold but now it’s backed by nothing. I can’t redeem it for a fixed quantity of anything. I can only exchange it for a product or service at a price a vendor is willing to accept. Same as Bitcoin.

The only intrinsic difference is that I can’t file my taxes in Bitcoin. Yet. At least one state in the U.S. has allowed this though (Ohio). More will follow.

In the future I believe that fiat will actually be backed by Bitcoin – in a loose sense. As central banks globally move away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, they won’t replace it with another government’s currency. Certainly not the Yuan. It’s going to be a decentralized, trustless, digital currency with a fixed supply. It’s going to be Bitcoin.

Did you miss ‘The power to tax’? That’s the foundation of any national currency. Bitcoin is backed by faery dust. – Garth

***********************************
I don’t trust BitCoin.

But I have to agree with
“You mean it’s printed by governments. It used to be backed by gold but now it’s backed by nothing. I can’t redeem it for a fixed quantity of anything. I can only exchange it for a product or service at a price a vendor is willing to accept. Same as Bitcoin.”

It seems the value of our fiat dollar is set in the market by all of us. Recently inflation has lowered that value.

The power to tax means that the Canadian government will never renege on Canadian dollar denominated bonds.

But does the power to tax prevent inflation and therefore erosion of the value of the fiat dollar? It seems not.

The Bank of Canada appears to have a great deal of power to control inflation via interest rates. So I certainly agree with Garth that the CB’s back fiat currencies. I suppose governments as the largest single actor in the economy also has a role in backing the dollar by its economic activities.

I would say it is mostly our collective trust in the fiat dollar that backs it as demonstrated in the market and it is the Bank of Canada that backs it with its efforts. Also the fact that our government (usually) refrains from massive borrowing and money printing also back the fiat dollar.

I don’t quite see the power to tax as backing the fiat dollar to prevent inflation. But that’s just my take on it. And I may be quite wrong. The power to tax did not prevent rampant inflation in the 1970’s.

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 3:47 pm

@#26 Bonobo Brains

Updated your name I see.
Good job!

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 3:53 pm

@#14 Ponzie’s Plumbing Predicament.
“Second, why don’t you stick with stuff you understand?”

+++
Ruthless dictatorships aren’t hard to recognize.
Unless you’re living un 1940’s Austria.

Question.
How many plumbers does it take to get under Ponzies skin?
Zero.
I’m not a plumber.
:)

#31 KLNR on 12.19.21 at 3:55 pm

@#18 Tarot Card on 12.19.21 at 2:20 pm
Thanks for the blog Garth
And thanks for yesterdays post Ryan, excellent job on forecasting.

Reading the news today makes you think the world will end.
First up Denmark is predicting hospitals will be overrun in 3 weeks, due to the new strain of virus!
Next, three top US retired generals are predicting a civil war in 2024 because of the military being split. Citing many of the January 6 rioters were ex military or current military.

Interesting choice of words there.
they’re just warning against more nonsense come election time. Biden admin definitely seems a little blasé about the last debacle.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/retired-generals-urge-pentagon-to-take-steps-to-avert-civil-war-after-2024-election

#32 Shawn Allen on 12.19.21 at 3:58 pm

The Power to Tax and the fiat dollar

Well, I suppose the power to tax could be used to raise taxes and create a recession to lower inflation which protects the value of a fiat dollar. I have never heard of a government admitting to doing that but it seems logical.

What backs the fiat dollar is in the meaning of the word fiat. Trust. Collective trust. I suppose we trust the CB and government to keep inflation in check.

#33 Michael in-north-york on 12.19.21 at 3:59 pm

Here is one scenario that can pop the Bitcoin bubble: a new crypto emerges, and it is slightly more convenient to use when paying for goods, or is supported and promoted by a big multinational company.

Once the new “crypto X” overtakes Bitcoin in the volume of payments for goods and services, the balance will be tipped. The new crypto doesn’t need to beat Bitcoin in the total (mark to market) value of accummulated assets, or in the volume of fiat-to-crypto trades. Just in the payments for goods and services, and that’s entirely doable as that segment makes a tiny fraction of all Bitcoin trades.

Then the new would-be entrants will view “crypto X” as more promising than Bitcoin, and buy the former. Without the new money inflow, the Bitcoin price will stop growing.

Then, the classic bubble dynamics kicks in. Those who bought Bitcoin recently (near the top) will try to hold their ground and refuse to sell at a loss. But those who bought long ago and are sitting on hefty gains (hello, Kurtis), will sell to protect their gains. And the giant snowball will roll down the hill.

#34 Stroller on 12.19.21 at 4:18 pm

Sometime in the next 50 years, while we are all still paying the bills for COVID and the Blitz spirit evaporates, and some clarity is directed at history will we not return to examine the curtain-raiser?

China says “a horrible thing is happening in Wuhan! We welcome the world’s press”

The press arrives and meets the spokesman.

Spokesman: This has all originated in a market just behind you – there are some incorrigible gourmands there who can’t resist a fried bat from time to time.

Press: We’re on it! The world deserves answers! Just before we go, what’s that building behind you?

Spokesman: Oh that old thing? It’s just a lab where we tinker with a number of coronviruses. Enjoy the market!

Press: Oh we will! Thank-you for your candor

Just another of those crazy coincidences…..

#35 Balmuto on 12.19.21 at 4:20 pm

#15 Balmuto on 12.19.21 at 2:10 pm
“Fiat currency, in contrast, is backed by governments, nations, CBs and the power to tax.” – Garth

You mean it’s printed by governments. It used to be backed by gold but now it’s backed by nothing. I can’t redeem it for a fixed quantity of anything. I can only exchange it for a product or service at a price a vendor is willing to accept. Same as Bitcoin.

The only intrinsic difference is that I can’t file my taxes in Bitcoin. Yet. At least one state in the U.S. has allowed this though (Ohio). More will follow.

In the future I believe that fiat will actually be backed by Bitcoin – in a loose sense. As central banks globally move away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, they won’t replace it with another government’s currency. Certainly not the Yuan. It’s going to be a decentralized, trustless, digital currency with a fixed supply. It’s going to be Bitcoin.

Did you miss ‘The power to tax’? That’s the foundation of any national currency. Bitcoin is backed by faery dust. – Garth
___________________________________________

The power of a government to tax is of no intrinsic value to the holder of its currency. It only gives the holder of its debt the confidence that the government will repay. Which in turn gives investors confidence in its currency. But that confidence is soon lost once a government’s power of taxation is not enough to repay its debts and they resort to money-printing. Bitcoin avoids this risk by being decentralized and of limited supply.

Neither fiat nor Bitcoin have any intrinsic value, they are both a confidence game. The way central banks are printing money these days I’m inclined to bet on Bitcoin coming out the winner.

Such twaddle. National currencies have economies behind them. Bitcoin has zip. – Garth

#36 WTF on 12.19.21 at 4:43 pm

Had to look up faery/faerie in the dic., our highly literate and talented host drops it on occasion. It appears to be a word not used in centuries, ergo “obsolete”

Given his Scottish/Druid/Gaelic ancestry I suppose we can let it go…….OR perhaps South Shore Nova Scotia is creeping into his subconscious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunenburg_English

#37 Leo on 12.19.21 at 4:44 pm

Now is the best time to invest in Toronto real estate.

#38 Desert Shepherd Rescue on 12.19.21 at 4:50 pm

Beautiful Remy! What quality of life would we have had without our doggies rescuing us! I have an identical doggy (Desert Shepherd ;)found on the streets in an industrial zone in Dubai and brought back to Canada. Wishing her well and, agreed-every day is a blessing!

#39 BillyBob on 12.19.21 at 5:03 pm

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 3:53 pm
@#14 Ponzie’s Plumbing Predicament.
“Second, why don’t you stick with stuff you understand?”

+++
Ruthless dictatorships aren’t hard to recognize.
Unless you’re living in 1940’s Austria.

==========================================

hahahah! BOOM!

Now that, meine freunde, is the way you rebut a cocky old Austrian/fake Canadian.

#40 TurnerNation on 12.19.21 at 5:42 pm

Dolce here they give us One Bourbon, One Scotch, and One Beer. Good 2 go.


Supply Chain, So why is the USA still open? Not for long.
I’m sure many small business will be forced closed.

https://apnews.com/article/when-do-osha-vaccine-mandate-penalties-start-d954620afc75367dff53ebac03972248
“OSHA vaccine mandate penalties to start Jan. 10”

– Don’t forget mid-January the truckers mandates come in, for cross border traffic. Many will refuse.


— Life in Kanada. Jaysus the punishment never ends. Frigid cold temps. Open windows on on a bus? That’s a receipe for sickness. Science in Kanada. Brutal cold kamp conditions Comrades.

TTCStuart (@TTCStuart) · Twitter
https://twitter.com/TTCStuart
Starting this weekend, windows on #TTC buses will be open when the vehicles go into service. Yes, it may be cooler on board, but on the smaller vehicles, air circulation/ventilation is key. Bundle up, mask up, stay home if sick, be kind to each other and stay safe out there.

-Data point: These links cover 7 (seven) large downtown Toronto hospitals.
There is a grand total of 3 (three) people in ICU due to Covid.

https://www.uhn.ca/Covid19#
https://www.sinaihealth.ca/covid19/
https://unityhealth.to/patients-and-visitors/covid-19/#covid-19-cases-at-unity-health-toronto-block_60070e3f12217

#41 Dog-faced Pony Soldier on 12.19.21 at 5:55 pm

“The old lady is pregnant.”

Well at least he didn’t say: “My bitch is pregnant” as some are wont to do !!

#42 THE DANDADA on 12.19.21 at 6:14 pm

“Fiat currency, in contrast, is backed by governments, nations, CBs and the power to tax. It’s money. Crypto is not. It never will be.”

You willing to bet your net-worth on that assumption?

I remember the Sony Walkman days when they told me all music would end up on a machine with no moving parts. I balked at the idea. Then cars were gonna go all-electric….NEVER. Then driverless cars – decades away….. they WON’T ever allow it anyhow.

#43 Garth's Son Drake on 12.19.21 at 7:11 pm

I watched an interesting interview by a Cornell prof. on bitcoin the other day.

He said bitcoin is going to disapear. RIP. However, it will be forever known for carving out the fast track adoption of crypto and in turn the development of the blockchain – the bigger picture of what is valuable in the crypto world.

I am a crypto bull, but I completely agree with his premise. You see, bitcoin is only a store of value and the people who store it want to see value (i.e. it going up in price). So, it is not hard to figure out what eventually happens to bitcoin once the flavor of the day changes. It was supposed to be worth 100k by now in price and even more as all of it has almost been mined.

So, why hasn’t it exploded to the value people like John Mcafee (who is now dead) predicted?

Because other more useful crypto is out there. So, not everyone piling into BTC. And like all good technologies the cream of the crop (ones that are most useful will rise to the top). Bitcoin (other than a store of value and valuable due to being a front runner to the game) has no use. It is going to try and transform but it is too late.

NFTs and the metaverse is where everything is going.

The gov will seize this if fiat implodes because they obviously have to control it if they want to be governing.

I guess we will see.

#44 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.19.21 at 7:14 pm

Or should I keep riding the crypto rollercoaster, selling a fraction of my position each year?

——–

Before you sell, check out the bitcoin stock to flow chart:

https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/

^ We are gonna 20X from here… BTC $1,000,000 by 2025.

HODL

#45 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.19.21 at 7:16 pm

… but if you bought a decade ago, you should already know that

#46 Printer is Coming on 12.19.21 at 7:33 pm

It was predicted the pandemic would be shorted lived. Wrong.

It was predicted back to office would happen by now. Wrong.

It was predicted condos were back, baby. Temporarily right. Soon to be wrong.

What has happened since Omicon appeared has completely wiped out the confidence that mankind can handle this. We can’t. This doesn’t mean the end of the world. It means there is a fundamental change to forever how people live.

The movement of people is no longer needed.

University centres are no longer needed.

Population centres are no longer needed.

The only thing that is physically needed is a roof over head and a logistical system to connect you with goods and supply to survive.

I get how the old economic system was created and why it is still trying to be protected, but in reality it is not needed anymore and change will follow.

I won’t be surprised if Toronto towers never become populated again (as in lived in – but someone will still own them for awhile, because you know, investors). Omicron is the start of a long list of mutants that will forever be ahead and any science mankind can throw at it.

So, bury your head in the sand if you want or reposition yourself to fully optimize and take advantage of the new world.

Times a changin’…They ain’t like they used to be.

If you think this is not the case than I have a blockbuster video chain to sell you.

Winter is already here. Is printer going to show up soon?

Another question I have is does anyone think we will make it to 2030 without a WWIII? That is the next wrench to be thrown in the revolving economic tire that investors will have to navigate once someone figures out debts “will not” (different from the fact everyone knows as “cannot” be repaid) be repaid due to the printer that has been as reliable as the geyser old faithful.

#47 Grunt on 12.19.21 at 7:43 pm

Say Garth how about nudging these youngsters to whiffing out the best pension plans in their industry? Government DB whatever.

#48 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.19.21 at 7:43 pm

CONTRARIAN GLASSES!
I put contrarian glasses on when confronted with the statement, “Get Ready For The roaring Twenties.” Sorry, for the Wee People, “Get Ready For The Dirty Thirties,” will prove to be far more appropriate. Why, because household savings are about to soar next year as the Wee People tighten their belts amid a surge in inflation. Numerous survey’s indicate households plan to save more as uncertainty over personal finances spirals, thanks to rising taxes and the prospect of further rises in interest rates. This does not support the statement,” Get Ready For The Roaring Twenties.” In addition people are looking at the Omicron Variant and getting the jitters. I suggest creeping, self imposed lockdowns will reinforce the concept of buying less, as the variant keeps people away from the shopping malls. Meanwhile, back on the Homefront, planes are landing like locusts on the Pearson tarmac, “Non Stop.” Thank the good Lord, that the government has our back with their iron clad health restrictions well in place. Perhaps for our political masters the idea of an interconnected world never crosses their feverish minds. Sleep tight my little beauties.

#49 Usain Bolt on 12.19.21 at 7:50 pm

Garth, how big of a rout are we going to see this week in markets?

20, 30, 40%??????

Maybe it is a slow melt into the new year, but if the new mutant doubles ever two days the market algos should start to panic soon.

It does not look like Santa and his Reindeers will be showing up to Wall Street.

I feel a bear market has started and has been given the blessing by the US Fed who looks to be taking away the punch bowl, while at the same time running emergency meetings to figure out the implications of the pandemic carrying on into eternity.

Let’s see if they actually take away the punch bowl. I don’t have access to that information.

Tomorrow my sells execute at market open.

Looks like Oil is taking another beating tomorrow.

I become a buyer as soon as the US Fed capitulates, which could be by next Friday. All we need is for Janet Y to make one phone call. Time will flush this out. Place your bets.

Chicken Little market timers usually get plucked. The pandemic is old news. – Garth

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 7:55 pm

@#41 Dances with Impregnated Dogs

It’s a family blog.
We prefer Bee-yatch…

#51 Yukon Elvis on 12.19.21 at 7:57 pm

China has banned crypto currencies. Other countries may follow. What will it be worth then ?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2021/10/11/china-banned-crypto-can-the-sec-try-doing-the-same/

#52 Rural Rick on 12.19.21 at 7:58 pm

Bitcoin is a database. That’s all.
Pretty cool it’s got distributed, triple check, entry security but seriously it is a method of data keeping and sharing not a unit of value.

#53 Wave #... on 12.19.21 at 8:01 pm

I just heard that Senator Karen and Booker tested positive for Covy.

Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, 72, said on Twitter she is vaccinated and boosted and regularly tested for Covid-19.

Booker, 52, a New Jersey Democrat, said on Twitter he had learned Sunday of his positive test “after first feeling symptoms on Saturday.” He added he had “relatively mild” symptoms and recently had received a vaccine booster. “I’m certain that without them I would be doing much worse,” he said.

Double vaxed and boosted.

I am starting to understand the incoming data on what was previously a question mark and unknown about the new variant.

Yikes.

#54 the Jaguar on 12.19.21 at 8:03 pm

@#66 fishman on 12.19.21 at 1:47 am
So the Jaguar had a little tune up coming back to Canada eh! Yikes! Can’t get home? They won’t let me in!
I know the twinge well. Last month in Washington D.C. And no wingman. Ya, that got my entitled Canadian Citizen attention. That was a first. ++

Be aware that the ‘fox evaded the hounds, but within legal constraints’.

p.s. You are confined to the freezing trawler for previous comments. No update available for when you’ll be let out. If hypothermia sets in you are on your own. Enough said.

#55 mj on 12.19.21 at 8:19 pm

I know you don’t like crypto. But what about shiba inu. it’s a dog Garth, A DOG. LOL

#56 Nonplused on 12.19.21 at 8:22 pm

I have a 1 oz gold Maple Leaf and it is mesmerizing. I also have a number of the old Canadian $1 silver coins, some with a boat, some with a train, the totem pole of course what collection is complete without that, and of course the canoe. Also just pleasing to hold. They are works of art. Cash is nice too of course but you use that to buy things, not to admire.

But Bitcoin? It’s just numbers on a spreadsheet and the first day the bid fails the whole thing gets marked to zero. Having no intrinsic value you can’t even count on the melt value. There is nothing to melt.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 8:23 pm

Will a cornered rat strike?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russians-have-suddenly-stopped-buying-putin-s-anti-american-propaganda/ar-AARXEZI?ocid=winp1taskbar

Only “President for Life” Putin knows for sure.

Nothing like a “fake” war to get the peoples minds off a dictators’ desperate gamble.

January may be a good time for a Ukrainian invasion.

The country’s fields and bogs are frozen.
Easier for Russian tanks and heavy artillery to traverse.

#58 I don't know on 12.19.21 at 8:32 pm

#46 Printer is Coming on 12.19.21 at 7:33 pm
#49 Usain Bolt on 12.19.21 at 7:50 pm

Looks like there is some fear out there. That means the time to buy is coming soon (if not here already).

Permabears will stay quiet as the market advances 200%, then proclaim the sky is falling when it falls 20%, then go back to being in quiet mode again as it starts rising another 200%.

#59 leebow on 12.19.21 at 8:36 pm

#49 Usain Bolt

Problem is that you probably lack tools, just like majority of retail investors. Do you know how to change your position for bear market? The difference between neutral and negative outlooks is not huge. It’s definitely not SELL SELL SELL. If you just cash in, a good chance you’ll regret it down the road.

#60 Rusty McCallan on 12.19.21 at 9:03 pm

Love the blog. But I have to respectfully disagree re: Bitcoin. Firstly, BTC is not crypto. BTC’s value is in the network. It’s already the most secure computer network in the world. And there’s a chance that it could be the best asymmetric trade of our generation. As a risk manager you know that having zero exposure means that you are short. BTC is long vol. The market doesn’t understand this yet but it will….at which point BTC correlation will decouple from risk assets like equities and credit. That said it will be a volatile ride until it reaches mainstream acceptance. Like all new technologies. Think fax machines, email, the internet.
AMZN went down 80-90% twice IIRC. The Naz declined 75% in ’00-’02 and ’08-’09…..still a great wealth creating vehicle. IMHO, you should have 5-7% in BTC and reduce your bond exposure. Bonds are risk guaranteed, no return vehicles in an environment with 4.7% inflation and rates likely to rise. Keep up the good work.

#61 Sail Away on 12.19.21 at 9:22 pm

Yes, for Liam: a baby has no need of a house. We bought our first house in Alaska 21 years ago when kids were 1 and 2, and then only because it cost $160k and it made sense with us earning $100k.

House prices seem unanchored to reality in Canada. It seems very odd to folks from the US who can buy property for far less while earning significantly more. A collective delusion.

RESP is a great benefit.

#62 Bonobo Brains on 12.19.21 at 9:33 pm

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.21 at 3:47 pm
@#26 Bonobo Brains

Updated your name I see.
Good job!

————————————–
Stand back … and put down the keyboard!
Quit while you are (a) behind…

Really! Three hours and that’s the best you could come up with?

Wow, 7 comments and counting today … why not spout a few more of your dastardly insults. Pretty soon you’ll have Linda chiming in to show her disdain for you again.

#63 mike from mtl on 12.19.21 at 9:33 pm

#8 Tsunami of Omicron on 12.19.21 at 1:49 pm
Tsunami of runny noses…u have completely lost your senses.

When I see the schleps staying in line at LCBO to get a free test I fully understand why Canada is going to be THE WORST PERFORMING market economy in the WESTERN world until 2060..
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yes I completely don’t understand these idiots. Think about it, why would I waste my personal time, lining up with various levels of infected folks who by now are as infectious as measles? For what exactly, to prove my sore throat or sneeze?

How do we process example in QC 30-40k ‘tests’ PER DAY the equivalent of 1,5 – 2 Bell Centres… every..single..day. By now apparently we’ve tested surpassing the equivalent of every single QC resident and it’s still going strong.

If the current ‘vaccines’ are working to suppress symptoms and bad results, then what is the frickin’ problem or mystery. We were originally sold by Pfizer marketing that this will end it +95% – was opinion at the time that is very hard to believe and well one year later is hyperbole.

Since Pharma corps are such slime balls most major governments are on the hook for years contractually, irregardless of if their products actually do anything. Extra bonus, Pharma Co. has zero liability/accountability. That’s why the ‘boosters’ are the next game, gotta move that 20$ per dose product.

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.19.21 at 9:38 pm

#46 Printer

University centres are no longer needed.

Population centres are no longer needed.
————————————
Well I’ve got news for you.
UBC just announced 2 weeks ago that it will build a high rise campus in downtown Surrey.
And, as your’s truly posted a week ago, a 3 high rise condo development will go up where the old Flamingo hotel once stood.
The first high rise, comprising of 375 units, sold out in a weekend.
Most people are a social people, particularly the new immigrants.

#65 meslippery on 12.19.21 at 9:44 pm

Remy… that shot must have been 9 years ago she looks like a pup.

#66 AM in MN on 12.19.21 at 10:01 pm

Did you miss ‘The power to tax’? That’s the foundation of any national currency. Bitcoin is backed by faery dust. – Garth

———————————————————

That’s the foundation of modern fiat currency (not money). For over 200 years the Bank of England helped build a global empire on the backing of the Pound by Gold. That was money, not just currency.

What are they going to tax?

Doing the math on the total amount of debt issued in said currency, taxing income and business profits at levels that are possible leaves a huge hole. Perhaps auctioning off the nation’s mineral rights? Mostly the only target worth the hassle is residential real estate, one way or the other.

Getting to the “crypto” arguments, there is a huge difference between Bitcoin and other cryptos. The US Securities and Exchange Commission describes one (BTC) and an “asset”, like gold, the rest are basically “securities”, which means they have no limit to their creation.

Very few people seem to understand the difference between the two.

The immense blockchain ledger behind Bitcoin will never vanish, much like the historical archives of the NYT, it will always exist and is open for anyone to see. Thus, the question becomes what value or price do people put on it?

I like to ask financial types, what value does the global SWIFT money transfer system have? It has no intrinsic value, just a computer network, yet it generates huge fees by people willing to pay them.

It takes too long to explain how developers are working on second layer networks to provide services that generate fees, but it’s coming, and it requires the backing of actual assets in the accounts to be able to process the transactions.

Much like banks of old kept gold in their vaults in order for people to trust that the paper currency they issued and used for trade had value.

The future is not on the side of most fiat currencies, just give it time, and on the way down get ready for the wealth confiscation to come.

#67 Sail Away on 12.19.21 at 10:05 pm

Ah, the endless fascination of market games. Some people enjoy gambling, I enjoy money shenanigans with certainties. Arbitraging a la Warren Buffett, occasionally with (gasp!) leverage, and selling covered calls in these volatile times has been exciting, educational and profitable.

So many things to try in life. How could anyone ever get bored? There was no better place to be this afternoon than absorbing vitamin D on the sun-drenched mountain peak feeding gray jays.

#68 James Sears on 12.19.21 at 10:38 pm

DELETED

#69 Phylis on 12.19.21 at 10:52 pm

Geepers, not much time left for a rally, 4700… is good.

#70 Drinking on 12.19.21 at 11:11 pm

#63 mike from mtl

Yep, completely understand both of your logics. Went into Shoppers Drug Mart the other day just to buy one lousy stamp, that’s all. Huge line up out the door, told the clerk that I just want in to buy a stamp since Canada post is located in it. Asked the clerk what the heck is going on and she said they are lining up for free tests given out to people. I just shook my head.

Two weeks back I was talking to a lady in line at a grocery store; she mentioned that she and her family had already been tested 8, yes 8 times in the past year. I asked why??? She abruptly ended the conversation??

I had the symptoms late in 2019; called 811, described to them what I was going through, the lady said; yep sounds like you have it. Stay home, isolate and if it gets worse call 911 or go to the hospital. She also mentioned if I was able to; get tested. Not an option for me, I was so bloody sick, could barely get out of bed so why would I stand in line and infect others?? Luckily after six weeks of hell I got through it; yep, fully vaccinated. they can shove there booster up there arses!

Been through it, took my shots like a good comrade, where my face mask and no, never have or will be tested, would rather those dollars go towards people who need desperate medical care but cannot due to this shyte show!!!

#71 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 12.19.21 at 11:55 pm

If I get paid in Bitcoins, do I have to pay income tax?

If the answer is no. Then it’s here to stay.

#72 iconoclast on 12.20.21 at 12:01 am

DELETED

#73 SoggyShorts on 12.20.21 at 12:01 am

#15 Balmuto on 12.19.21 at 2:10 pm

In the future I believe that fiat will actually be backed by Bitcoin

*******************
Sure, the governments of the world are going to peg their bucks to something where no one knows who owns it.
Sure.

#74 Santa on 12.20.21 at 12:48 am

Yup….if you have a young wife, new baby, term insurance is a no brainer. $500,000 is cheap. Employers contracts are usually $100,000. You don’t want a cremation on the leaf pile at a city dump. Keep it classy. And you should carry disability. Lots of people are going mental these days. Don’t rely on a disability pension from CPP. They only approve people who have had their heads decapitated. They know if you’re just a boozer, so quit gooning around, especially if you’re married and have kids.

Unless you’re a flipper, rent. It might seem like it’s different this time and prices will go up forever. But Dude, the only reason is Trudeau stealing money from the treasury at zero interest. Even at 1/4% the next trillion in debt will eclipse the entire economy and the Trudeau/Tiff induced collapse will be epic. Nothing goes up for ever. It might seem unbearable to wait. Hold it in. The satisfaction of not pissing your pants is worth it.

#75 Dr V on 12.20.21 at 1:19 am

57 Fartz

I just want to know if you have endorsed this

https://gem.cbc.ca/media/who-farted/s01e01?cmp=GEM_cbc.ca_homepage_shelfnew

I wont watch it unless it is the official version

#76 Faron on 12.20.21 at 2:27 am

#67 BillyBob on 12.19.21 at 1:26 am

Laughable that you, one who has taken every opportunity to chime in and take pot shots, are calling me out for tittering at you. Rich.

To the point at hand. Shall I bury you with data? Point out that the high on the day of your post was a full degree warmer than normal? Was almost above zero? Is that what you meant by “COLD for Calgary”? Or should I point out that the minor cold snap a few days ago is something the city sees several times a year, if not more often? Or, to get technical, it was a ~1.5 sigma event (I don’t have sigma in front of me and don’t care to calculate it for you). So, actually, pretty dead-nuts normal for Calgary.

From my own experience (AKA anecdote, so not science): I lived there for 3 years. It was fantastic. Culturally, the town sucks arse (albeit with a few bright spots) but the natural setting is A+. I digress. Cold snaps, blowing snow, etc. etc. are par for the winter course. Now, -30? Like what they will see in a ~week? That’s cold. It might even get cold for Calgary. LOL.

The one angle you might have is that the monthly average Tmax is shaping up to be a few degrees colder than normal. But, it’s a La Nina, nothing to write home about.

#79 Ustabe on 12.19.21 at 12:49 pm

I appreciate that you and I see BillyBob for who he is, and your thoughts about his fixation on my sexuality highlight a sad dimension to what he posts about.

Regarding my childishness; let’s just say I give what these guys are worth. There are far better things to do in the world. I do enjoy the odd snipe though because, man, some of the stuff that comes off their keyboards… At this point it’s mostly like shooting fish in barrel. I’ll leave the Kyle Rittenhouse joke aside for now.

#77 Diamond Dog on 12.20.21 at 4:03 am

#60 Rusty McCallan on 12.19.21 at 9:03 pm

#66 AM in MN on 12.19.21 at 10:01 pm

The 2 of you miss so many important points, so I’ll wade in. Crypto is not new technology but rather, new applications of old tech. Encryption has been around since the 90’s, no? The entire industry is one giant imitation of the real thing.

All encrypted transactions are as safe as the trust of we place in those who have access to encryption keys, good luck with breaking the codes without them. So when I hear Crypto is “the most secure network in the world” as one of you claim, should I suddenly fear being hacked when I do online banking as less safe? When I hear “most secure network in the world”, i.e. “best there is”, I know I’ve heard such words from either the mind of a brainwashed or dubious individual take your pick. Either way, a fool in search of a greater fool.

Crypto is an inferior form of value exchange compared to Fiat in pretty much every way one compare. Lets go over some.

– Access. I can spend Canadian currency anywhere in Canada. Show me a form of Crypto including Bitcoin that remotely compares here or for that matter anywhere in the western world. It’s the same for most other nations and their Fiat currencies. Mainstream Crypto is a fairytale in terms of access comparison.

– Unregulated. An unregulated form of currency is inferior precisely because it’s unregulated. The entire currency is at great risk because of this. Risk to fraud (I don’t even have to keep going, this is reason enough), risk to security breaches (again, who really holds the encryption keys), risk of rapid devaluation and industry collapse, risk of regulation, risk of far greater competition from incumbent Fiat currencies, risk of runs on currency (risk of too small to succeed) the list is long.

– Most actual transactions of Crypto coin involve either gamblers looking to get rich quick from buying a product from a Crypto security in the hopes that a greater fool will come along and give them greater value for the same product backed by nothing than they paid for said product themselves or! Individuals trading crypto coins with every motive of hiding transactions from governments. This would be the underworld of black market trade.

Now, some might think there’s nothing wrong with that, degenerate gambling and hiding criminal monetary transactions from governments whether its in the form of tax evasion or legal trade. Let’s speak plain, one would have to be naive, willfully ignorant, corrupt or simply unaware of the difference between right and wrong not to see what is wrong with knowingly supporting criminal activity in such a way. To the point, Crypto ENABLES poor human behavior and illegal trade.

– First hand fees. Governments don’t charge first hand fees for the usage of Fiat currencies. The securities that create digital coin however, do exactly that. I can’t understate how important this difference is.

– Third hand fees. Most banks and some forms of money exchange with Fiat have systematically lower fees than securities that exchange products they call Crypto coins (backed by nothing).

https://fox26newshenry.com/2021/12/19/crypto-and-its-many-fees-what-to-know-about-the-hidden-costs-of-digital-currency/

The Crypto industry argues their fees are cheaper. Compared to? Credit cards and Paypal, to a point but most banks, not so much. Lets get real, the only digital coin that really exchanges for material items in the real world is Bitcoin and it’s access is grossly limited. Coin in all the rest of Crypto plaforms exchange only through investors buying coin from exchanges and securities or trading one coin for another through Stablecoin chasing a trend, its gambling. And fees aren’t cheap.

– Credit through 3rd party Crypto is “expensive” compared to banks. Trading securities, same thing. Once again, Crypto securities or Crypto stocks are memes or imitations of the real thing with higher price tags for what they offer which is basically nothing but risk in doing business.

Lets face it, most investors in Crypto don’t know what they are really investing in. They don’t know the risks or the products (which don’t produce anything) of securities they are getting into, they are simply investing because they heard someone make lots of money and are gambling with an investment in the hopes of getting rich quick.

It’s Dunning Kruger, a fool and their money:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUsgoPAes8w

#78 under the radar on 12.20.21 at 5:17 am

67- Out in my snow covered forest, the sun was poking through, a gentle breeze moved the tops of mighty trees. Watching startled deer take off. There is a stillness in nature and yet if you really listen, the forest is a busy place. Having a few bucks is nice, appreciating what it buys is priceless.

#79 willworkforpickles on 12.20.21 at 5:55 am

#66 AM in MN
….”what value does the global SWIFT money transfer system have? It has no intrinsic value, just a computer network, yet it generates huge fees by people willing to pay them.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

SWIFT is being replaced country by country in the works as the US imposes sanctions on more of them and will ultimately be replaced by a new world transfer platform away from the US dollar as the worlds primary reserve currency.

US sanctions on…Russia China Turkey Iran N.Korea Syria Somalia Venezuela even Europe and dozens more.

#80 Bezengy on 12.20.21 at 6:56 am

I would be interested to know if Kurtis declares any capital gains at all from his Bitcoin trades. Going back a few years very few claimed profits. Less than 1 percent according to this report.

https://fortune.com/2018/02/13/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-tax-taxes/

But, it does look like the CRA is cracking down, so who knows? My guess is more are claiming losses than gains which probably leaves the CRA in a deficit position.

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/cryptocurrency/crypto-gains-can-come-with-a-hefty-and-unexpected-tax-bill

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.21 at 7:47 am

@#62 Bonobo Brains

“Wow, 7 comments and counting today … ”

+++

It’s easy when I keep them succinct.
(75 Faron and 76 D D take note).

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.21 at 7:51 am

@#74 Dr V
“I wont watch it unless it is the official version”

+++

https://gem.cbc.ca/media/who-farted/s01e01?cmp=GEM_cbc.ca_homepage_shelfnew

Well, at least it has more investigative journalism in it than the nightly “CBC News”

#83 Wrk.dover on 12.20.21 at 8:15 am

#77 under the radar on 12.20.21 at 5:17 am
Having a few bucks is nice,
__________________________________

That’s what Musk must have been thinking, selling high.

#84 XGRO and Chill on 12.20.21 at 9:13 am

Buffet thinks bitcoin, like any non-producing asset, will come to a bad ending after a big run up in prices.

I’m not one to disagree with that. It has no underlying value. What keeps its value up is sheer speculation – basically greater fool theory (ha ha..). People only buy it because they think they can sell it to someone in the future at a higher price. That’s it. The amount of discussion about using it for transactions has really plummeted over the last several years, as people realize it is too difficult to use it for that purpose.

I’d buy some, but if I’m going to gamble, I find poker to be much more enjoyable :)

#85 AM in MN on 12.20.21 at 9:23 am

#79 willworkforpickles on 12.20.21 at 5:55 am
#66 AM in MN

….”what value does the global SWIFT money transfer system have? It has no intrinsic value, just a computer network, yet it generates huge fees by people willing to pay them.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

SWIFT is being replaced country by country in the works as the US imposes sanctions on more of them and will ultimately be replaced by a new world transfer platform away from the US dollar as the worlds primary reserve currency.

US sanctions on…Russia China Turkey Iran N.Korea Syria Somalia Venezuela even Europe and dozens more.

—————————————————–

Replaced with what?

Many are trying, and Russia and China have been bulking up on gold as a way to eventually wean themselves out of a US controlled SWIFT system, but nothing is presently working that anyone trusts on a large scale.

Try and pay for a tanker full of oil with something else.

Again, don’t confuse Bitcoin with other cryptos. Also don’t confuse with Government issued fiat currency, compare it to gold. Understand “Asset” vs “Security” Think of a gold bar vs a junior mining stock.

The usefulness is coming in the secondary layers, like the Lightning Network. Again, much like bank issued currencies of old that need to be backed up by “Assets”.

It is technical for sure, but it is coming because of the money printing behaviours of the fiat currency issuers. The USD will be the last one standing, but even it has its limits when considering the amount of debt issued and promises made to the senior citizens for the government to look after them with printed money.

#86 millmech on 12.20.21 at 9:27 am

#67 Sail Away
What is DTE are you running with the CC, if you do not mind.

#87 Dharma Bum on 12.20.21 at 9:34 am

OMICRON = HOMEICRON

https://storeys.com/omicron-will-keep-real-estate-market-red-hot-royal-lepage/

Bring on the disease, baby.

CHA-CHING!

#88 TurnerNation on 12.20.21 at 9:37 am

Ready for the next step of the Economic Reset?
Kanada like all Former First World Countries has been shut own for this. Always in the wintertime when it’s too cold for outdoor protest.

– Citizens are forced into enforcement. Checking papers please – for even the most routine parts of like like having a beer in a pub, farmers markets, swimming pools.

– Christmas is cancelled (of course). Holiday travel and gatherings are all but banned. House Arrest. The Berlin Walls on the Least Coast must remain. Normalcy.

– Social and cultural events are banned, being cancelled.

– Small business is this close to being shut down for good. Punishing new rules upon rules are added.
Gunning toward a UBI in 2022?

– Once you realize that to our rulers WE are the virus to be stamped out, human activity…this makes more sense

— Hint Hint. There’s no more news only predictive programming.

https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/cryptocurrency/a-digital-loonie-is-coming-even-if-the-bank-of-canada-wont-say-it-directly
—–

.NHL postpones all cross-border games until after Christmas break (sportsnet.ca)

.Premier League postponed games: As UK COVID cases spike, Aston Villa, Manchester United matches canceled (cbssports.com)

.Decision on Times Square New Year’s Eve Event Due This Week (nbcnewyork.com)

#89 Gerald Freeze on 12.20.21 at 9:49 am

Why do you select stocks rather than buy an index? Because smart companies do smart things.

Such as: BMO continues to expand outside Canada and buys Bank of the West in California from BNP Paribas for 16.3 billion, using “cash on hand”!!!!!!

Canada’s best and brightest are not investing in Trudeaus Canada. There is zero direct foreign investment. Even if you’re an immigrant voting for Trudeau because he’s building your community and that alters Canada’s democracy more in line with the failed system you left .

What’s going to be left for you when taxes are raised to 100% so that Trudeau can keep pandering. Good move BMO, as a shareholder I thank you.

#90 IHCTD9 on 12.20.21 at 10:17 am

#67 Sail Away on 12.19.21 at 10:05 pm

So many things to try in life. How could anyone ever get bored? There was no better place to be this afternoon than absorbing vitamin D on the sun-drenched mountain peak feeding gray jays.
___

Don’t think we have the gray jays around here, just the noisy blue jays. May fav bird locally are ravens, with their crazy noises and goofy behavior.

#91 Sail Away on 12.20.21 at 10:28 am

#86 millmech on 12.20.21 at 9:27 am
#67 Sail Away

What is DTE are you running with the CC, if you do not mind.

———

It varies. I’m still proofing the concept after around a year.

My hired consultant has a thing for the third Friday of each month, but this can mean anything from a few weeks to a few months, depending on other factors.

Why do you ask?

#92 millmech on 12.20.21 at 10:49 am

Christmas sale coming up, good to read headlines of the Dow “plunging” to help reinforce the negative feedback loop, perhaps a a flash crash so to speak coming up hopefully.

#93 George S on 12.20.21 at 10:51 am

Most currencies don’t fluctuate in value relative to the US dollar by such wild amounts unless the country (or the US) is in serious trouble. Cryptocurrencies are a more of a gambling game, similar to poker.
If a country starts using some form of cryptocurrency you can be sure it it will be kimjongcoin or similar and won’t be Bitcoin and the value of bitcoin, etc. will go to zero.

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.20.21 at 11:03 am

#90 IHCTD9 on 12.20.21 at 10:17 am
#67 Sail Away on 12.19.21 at 10:05 pm

So many things to try in life. How could anyone ever get bored? There was no better place to be this afternoon than absorbing vitamin D on the sun-drenched mountain peak feeding gray jays.
___

Don’t think we have the gray jays around here, just the noisy blue jays. May fav bird locally are ravens, with their crazy noises and goofy behavior.
—————————-
Lots of birds in my small backyard. I don’t feed them, so they must come for the trees and bushes that I planted.
Enjoy them from my living room, and my cat, too.
Provide for nature and nature will provide for you.
And vice versa.
The oldest symbiotic relationship there is.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.20.21 at 11:10 am

Biden’s agenda seems to be doomed.
Not enough support from his own people.
Not much good news out there, right now.
No Santa rally, this year, I guess.

#96 Sail Away on 12.20.21 at 11:17 am

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.20.21 at 11:03 am
#90 IHCTD9 on 12.20.21 at 10:17 am
#67 Sail Away on 12.19.21 at 10:05 pm

So many things to try in life. How could anyone ever get bored? There was no better place to be this afternoon than absorbing vitamin D on the sun-drenched mountain peak feeding gray jays.

———-

Don’t think we have the gray jays around here, just the noisy blue jays. May fav bird locally are ravens, with their crazy noises and goofy behavior.

———-

Lots of birds in my small backyard. I don’t feed them, so they must come for the trees and bushes that I planted.
Enjoy them from my living room, and my cat, too.
Provide for nature and nature will provide for you.
And vice versa.
The oldest symbiotic relationship there is.

———–

Likewise. Birds everywhere. We keep a few seed logs out all winter with a frisbee on the hanging string to keep rain and squirrels off. Fun to watch a mob of 30 bushtits pile on.

Best way to keep birds from hitting windows? Draw thin vertical lines 2 1/2″ apart with a white paint marker on the outside of the window. 100% effective in our experience.

#97 Do we have all the facts on 12.20.21 at 11:23 am

I don’t like where the Liberal Party is headed.

In 2014/15 the year before Justin and his crew assumed control the Government of Canada collected a total of $282.3 billion in revenue from all sources. Of this total $135.t billion (48.1%) was received as personal income taxes and $39.4 billion (14.0%) was received as corporate income taxes. Total income based taxation represented 62.1% of total revenues.

In 2020/21 the Government of Canada collected a total of $316.4 billion from all sources. Of this total $174.8 (55.2%) was received as personal income taxes and $54.1 (17.0%) was received as corporate income taxes.
Total income based taxation in 2020/21 represented 72.2% of total Government of Canada revenues.

Income based taxation increased from 62.1% of total Government of Canada revenues in 2014/15 to 72.2% of total Government of Canada revenues in 2020/21.

Why in the world would Canadian taxpayers elect a government that seems dedicated to increasing the percentage of total revenue raised by the taxation of income.

This is not the way to stimulate economic growth.

#98 Rusty McCallan on 12.20.21 at 11:23 am

#77 Diamond Dog

TL/DR….too many ad hominem and straw man arguments.

Let’s just agree that that’s why there’s a market.

Bitcoin is not crypto. Do your own homework. Follow in the footsteps of open minded billionaires like Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, Michael Saylor.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.20.21 at 11:24 am

Great picture from the Tornado devastation in Kentucky
—————
https://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/bilder-des-tages-fotos-aus-deutschland-und-der-welt-fotostrecke-122824.html#bild-65296730-f861-41cf-bf26-c44a6430b534

#100 BillyBob on 12.20.21 at 11:34 am

#76 Faron on 12.20.21 at 2:27 am
#67 BillyBob on 12.19.21 at 1:26 am

Laughable that you, one who has taken every opportunity to chime in and take pot shots, are calling me out for tittering at you. Rich.

To the point at hand. Shall I bury you with data? Point out that the high on the day of your post was a full degree warmer than normal? Was almost above zero? Is that what you meant by “COLD for Calgary”? Or should I point out that the minor cold snap a few days ago is something the city sees several times a year, if not more often? Or, to get technical, it was a ~1.5 sigma event (I don’t have sigma in front of me and don’t care to calculate it for you). So, actually, pretty dead-nuts normal for Calgary.

From my own experience (AKA anecdote, so not science): I lived there for 3 years. It was fantastic. Culturally, the town sucks arse (albeit with a few bright spots) but the natural setting is A+. I digress. Cold snaps, blowing snow, etc. etc. are par for the winter course. Now, -30? Like what they will see in a ~week? That’s cold. It might even get cold for Calgary. LOL.

The one angle you might have is that the monthly average Tmax is shaping up to be a few degrees colder than normal. But, it’s a La Nina, nothing to write home about.

================================================

Relax, bubba. I was there in Calgary on the 16th, happened to notice it was very cold, remarked casually on this to a Calgarian. Believe it or not, I didn’t consult historical data tables LOL. You felt some weird need to interject and now you still have to write an utterly pointless diatribe for some reason. All based on an offhand remark about the WEATHER that didn’t involve you whatsoever! hahaha!

It’s actually quite difficult to articulate the level of patheticness of your constant, endless, truly relentless need for some sort of validation. I marvel at it, it provides entertainment, but only a shrink can begin to unravel such neediness. I genuinely feel embarrassed for you, constantly displaying it under your real name. Your choice, of course, but still…come on, man.

But, in the spirit of seasonal goodwill, I do hope that 2022 might be the year you begin to get whatever help you need.

Merry Christmas!

#101 willworkforpickles on 12.20.21 at 12:11 pm

#85 AM in MN
“The USD will be the last one standing”
……………………………………………………………………………………………..

The USD will not be the last currency standing by a long shot. And SWIFT will be replaced when Europe goes full steam behind ousting it. 5 more years.

#102 Faron on 12.20.21 at 12:54 pm

#100 BillyBob on 12.20.21 at 11:34 am

Believe it or not, I didn’t consult historical data tables LOL

Of course you didn’t. That would be scientific. You know, with thermometers and data and stuff. Ustabe has you nailed. Shooting fish in a barrel, there’s no validation in that.

#103 willworkforpickles on 12.20.21 at 12:55 pm

Like i said, the real money’s been made in BTC.
It’s a good thing there are plenty of suckers keeping it going though.
The markets even, not just BTC need these sheep to feed the sharks as the (sheep) hop aboard all FOMO’ed up. Serves to get the early comers out with a nice profit as they leave the duped behind to run with the ball well after the show of shows has ended.
Nothing new about that except to the newbie buyers.

#104 willworkforpickles on 12.20.21 at 1:04 pm

What will replace the Swift system?
“To replace the “inefficient” SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system and offer blockchain-based remittance services. … Alongside Lightnet, Ripple is another company that is positioning itself as a rival to SWIFT, and is a partner of money transfer firm MoneyGram.”

#105 IHCTD9 on 12.20.21 at 1:28 pm

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.20.21 at 11:03 am
#90 IHCTD9 on 12.20.21 at 10:17 am
#67 Sail Away on 12.19.21 at 10:05 pm

So many things to try in life. How could anyone ever get bored? There was no better place to be this afternoon than absorbing vitamin D on the sun-drenched mountain peak feeding gray jays.
___

Don’t think we have the gray jays around here, just the noisy blue jays. May fav bird locally are ravens, with their crazy noises and goofy behavior.
—————————-
Lots of birds in my small backyard. I don’t feed them, so they must come for the trees and bushes that I planted.
Enjoy them from my living room, and my cat, too.
Provide for nature and nature will provide for you.
And vice versa.
The oldest symbiotic relationship there is.
___

We got a big back yard with lots of places to hide/live. I had to feed the yard rabbits one winter due to a big ice storm that sealed everything up. They ate our Spirea’s down right to the snow line, and ate every weed inside my old drive shed that had sprouted from the cracked concrete. I even noticed turds all around my dozer (also inside the drive shed) so they were likely picking edibles out of the undercarriage.

I bought a 50 lb bag of rabbit pellets and set a bowl out for them inside the DS. I fed them for almost 2 months. Looked like some Mice and Birds were getting their fill too.

#106 Millennial 1%er on 12.20.21 at 1:39 pm

“Bitcoin is a bubble, it’ll never reach 100$”

My frat bro friend, when I was in university.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.21 at 1:53 pm

@ #102 Faron.

You must thrive working with govt types.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.21 at 2:05 pm

I’m starting to see more and more “Credit refinancing” and or “Bankruptcy” ads on tv, internet and radio.

Sign of our spendthrift times?

People finally realizing….. you can’t spend like the govt.

#109 Faron on 12.20.21 at 2:19 pm

#102 Faron on 12.20.21 at 12:54 pm
#100 BillyBob on 12.20.21 at 11:34 am

On validation seeking: Lessee, I’ll just put some stuff out there. You

— picked at pilots calling them fake
— musicians calling them hacks
— photographers for not photographing correctly (mind you, after Garth blogged a photo that was widely loved by steerage; note that the purpose of art isn’t for it to be tack-sharp. It’s purpose is to make people feel)
— Canada for being crap (hint, it’s not crap by a loooooong shot)
— Dug through my institute’s GitHub to try to call me fake
— Pretended to know the head of a department I’m not part of to further try to “reveal” something. God knows what. Maybe my name? LOL.

It doesn’t take much perceptiveness to see where a validation problem lies. I’ll give it to you, it might be both of us. But it certainly ain’t not you (double negative to put some fingernails to a chalkboard for Sail Away).

Another hint, and I hope this speaks to your authoritarian appreciating side. If you don’t want to be apprehended by the clown police… don’t be a clown. Or, at least take off the red nose.

#110 Shawn Allen on 12.20.21 at 2:28 pm

SWIFT?

I had to do a “wire transfer” to send money to a Canadian foreign exchange company that they would forward to an Australian university.

The reason it was wire transfer was becasue TD bank was blocking this Canadian company from using their bill payment option to receive money.

The SWITF wire transfer required a trip to the branch and had the look of 1950 about it. Archaic. Needs to go. I believe the “wire” refers to telegraph wires.

#111 Dr V on 12.20.21 at 3:10 pm

99 Ponz – no picture of tornado devastation is “great”.
Please consider re-phrasing.

Maybe “I found the composition interesting” or “the setting is ironic” etc..

#112 millmech on 12.20.21 at 3:22 pm

#91 Sail Away
Just curious as I am running weekly but switching to 30-45DTE, less intensive monitoring of positions.
Thank You for the input!

#113 Barb on 12.20.21 at 4:25 pm

Remy looks soooo young, Jonathan!
You’ve obviously given the lovely girl a good and loving home these 10 years. Fingers crossed she’s not in any pain.

#114 Tom Jones on 12.20.21 at 4:28 pm

Dalio, Tudor Jones, Druckenmiller, Novogratz, Draper, etc. all must have it wrong then.

I’d make the counter-argument that you’re doing your clients a disservice (and fiduciary responsibility) by not studying the asset class seriously.

As with anything, the market will vote. I strongly predict that any younger clients drawn to your firm will be repelled by your brash view on crypto.

Garth, I’m not suggesting to bet the farm. But a 1% allocation has the ability to substantially bolster portfolio alpha, with little additional risk. Think about it.

You have no idea what fiduciary responsibility is. – Garth

#115 Diamond Dog on 12.20.21 at 4:46 pm

#98 Rusty McCallan on 12.20.21 at 11:23 am

Cryptography has a long history going back to world war II. Public encryption keys have been around since, wait for it, the 70’s. With the advent of computers, Cryptography has enabled sensitive information to go back and forth on the internet en masse since the 90’s.

To my knowledge, encryption patents have expired in the late 2000’s leading to the encryption tech currently employed by the entire Crypto industry we know today.

Even block chain existed before Bitcoin to my knowledge. The Crypto industry calls block chain theirs but it isn’t, it’s a fraudulent claim and there’s a message in that.

The only thing really new about blockchain tech including all forms of Crypto currency within the history of encryption is the application. The industry has rebranded it to call it their own and the application of decentralized encryption practiced in the form of a digital currency is new, but industry founders did not invent the tech in this wheel. In other words, its one giant meme. Not a straw man argument.

What most investors likely don’t know because they never took the time to find out, is that Bitcoin miners are the ones that do the transfers of code and they do these transactions for a fee. If the fee isn’t high enough to process the transaction, the transaction may never be processed. Essentially, without miners, there is no transfer of Bitcoin or any other future alt coins in it’s decentralized platform.

I mention this because of what China’s response is to Bitcoin (made it illegal). Some will say “you can’t shut down Bitcoin, its everywhere”. Actually, any government can but there’s an order to it. First comes the changes in policy. Next comes the crackdown of Bitcoin miners. Then comes the continued evolution in law and international trade. Russia is also considering making Bitcoin illegal, along with India. Why exactly?

Why are these nations likely to follow China’s lead? It’s not just a perceived threat to Fiat currencies, Bitcoin mining is highly power consumptive and power is not a plentiful commodity in these nations:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/18/chinas-underground-bitcoin-miners-.html

https://powercompare.co.uk/bitcoin-mining-electricity-map/

Perhaps you missed the Chinese factories being idled down last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVm6jfFcUG4

These are early days but only the first steps. In time, more and more Bitcoin mining ops will be shut down with less competition to process transaction driving up the price of fees. Transactions will lag in processing creating a form of digital currency that becomes more and more unusable with an industry that already has serious flaws you say are straw man arguments except for the fact that they aren’t.

My point is simple. If the world’s governments don’t want Bitcoin, its gone. If the miners are shut down, its done. If governments wish to shut down online retailers using it, they will. Why would governments go out of their way to do it, to shut down miners, to regulate and pass laws?

Once again, Bitcoin is a highly inefficient misuse of power for an unregulated business that thrives primarily on black market trade. Bitcoin and it’s copycat “alt coin versions” pining away to be the next Bitcoin replacement or competition with their coins not circulating in any real fashion other than by investors willing to pay sizeable fees to own a type of coin currency backed by nothing and sold by corporations that don’t have their alt coins circulating in the gen pop, are an imitation of the real thing except for decentralized transactions which is once again, a huge flaw precisely in the way decentralized transactions are processed (power hungry wasteful miners).

In short, decentralized processing of Bitcoin transactions is inefficient (and offers security risk, not a straw man argument). In the end, cost benefit analysis will decide against it and right now this looks like the direction the industry is headed. This is why the Cornell University professor in the link below says Bitcoin may not last… too inefficient.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/12/06/bitcoin-itself-may-not-last-that-much-longer-cornell-professor-says.html?&qsearchterm=cornell%20university

Does this mean the entire industry of bit coin and future alt coins are doomed? Until the industry can lower it’s fees, streamline it’s power consumption, beef up it’s security, offer something more than the value of a tulip and become accepted by governments including regulations and on and on, I believe it will fall out of favor and have some rough years ahead of it. I’m with Buffet, “If I could buy a 5 year put”.

#116 Tom Jones on 12.20.21 at 4:58 pm

Dalio, Tudor Jones, Druckenmiller, Novogratz, Draper, etc. all must have it wrong then.

I’d make the counter-argument that you’re doing your clients a disservice (and fiduciary responsibility) by not studying the asset class seriously.

As with anything, the market will vote. I strongly predict that any younger clients drawn to your firm will be repelled by your brash view on crypto.

Garth, I’m not suggesting to bet the farm. But a 1% allocation has the ability to substantially bolster portfolio alpha, with little additional risk. Think about it.

You have no idea what fiduciary responsibility is. – Garth

I’m not here to argue. I was highly skeptical at first – but, it was because I hadn’t done the work to understand the asset class. Salacious media headlines didn’t help.

I’d encourage reading the ‘Bitcoin Standard’, and if you walk away with the same opinion, that I can respect.

#117 Sail Away on 12.20.21 at 5:07 pm

#112 millmech on 12.20.21 at 3:22 pm
#91 Sail Away

Just curious as I am running weekly but switching to 30-45DTE, less intensive monitoring of positions.
Thank You for the input!

——-

Sorry, I was being a bit flippant. Every company is so different that it’s hard to say. Usually the more volatile warrant a shorter DTE and the boring railroads a longer DTE. Rule #1 is only sell calls on good companies with fairly dependable long term trendline.

#118 Andre on 12.21.21 at 11:08 am

I feel this is just nostalgia from the ‘old good times’.
You can not change time and all factories and R&D already 10-15-20 years as outsourced and decentralized worldwide even 5-10 years ago almost every company worked in the office over ‘zoom’ with teams on different time zones and people sitting next to each other but not talking to each other (except sometimes to kill office idle time b/w meetings) because they are from different teams assigned across other physical offices in NA and world wide only sharing the office space and kitchen, nothing else as part of different groups and departments with managers who’ve never seen all of his 30-40 employees in real world face to face.

#119 Rusty McCallan on 12.21.21 at 2:52 pm

#115 Diamond Dog on 12.20.21 at 4:46 pm

DDog you are completely missing my point.

SHA256 encryption HAS been around a long time. As has the internet (TCP/IP).

Mixing the two with hash technology to solve the global problems of centralization, unlimited money supply, censorship, and changing laws is what is new (3 Jan ’09). That’s what makes it so elegant. The solution came to the problem.

Please do your own homework. Folks, Buffet quotes and profs from Cornell pontificating from ivory towers won’t help you.

Bitcoin is insurance (CDS) on a basket of fiat currencies that are programmed to default.

If you still feel the same way after spending 500 hours studying it, then you can short it using mini bitcoin futures (MBT on the CME) or by going long BITI (Horizon’s inverse ETF). That’s what makes markets.

And please, tell all your friends to do the same.