Drive on

Remember this week. Your kids will ask you about it some day.

On Monday the Canadian CB was greenlit to tackle inflation and hike rates. On Tuesday our non-financial Finance Minister bragged about spending only $144 billion more than we have this year. Wednesday morning Omicron ate the nation. Later than day the US Fed did a massive pivot, saying interest rates would rise three times next year, three more the year after and again in 2024. We will follow. And Thursday T2 ordered his minions to ban foreign house buyers, outlaw blind bidding, increase downpayments on investment properties and start dismantling the principal residence capital gains exemption.

Yikes. And Friday may come word of new restrictions, rules and irritations caused by this slimiest of variants (biological, not political). And new stress test rules.

First, rates. Whazzit mean?

The American central bank a few weeks ago said inflation was transitory, which was hopium. It wasn’t. and now has surged to almost 7%. The worst since the ‘80s. So the Fed did an historic volte-face, pledging to end its stimulative bond-buying then goose rates at least seven times, thrice in 2022. This is because inflation is hot, the economy’s hot and the labour market is on fire. Unemployment will be in the 3% range next year and jobs are going begging.

Mr. Market listened carefully. This, he concluded, will not derail growth. Stocks shot higher. Said analyst Ed Pennock:

Oh, Mr. Powell. Just what the market wanted. The DOW went from a 150-point deficit to a 300-point advance. One Day Reversal. Suddenly, it looks like a Green Xmas. 3 Hikes in 2022 and we love it. Tapering doubles to $30B per month. Done by March…

Powell showed a very reasonable side. He was aware of the problem. He convinced the market that he is willing and able to fight inflation. Sentiment was primed to move. From deeply Oversold to “Business as Usual”? So whatever corrective action one had taken, reverse it. Cash in. Drive on. Invest the money.

The Roaring Twenties are intact.

Now, Monday’s mandate for the Bank of Canada plus the Fed reversal mid-week means interest rates in this country are going higher. Soon. Count on it. Our inflation approaches 5% and bond-buying has already ended at the central bank. Now rates can pop without risking an overvaluation of our dollar – making exports less competitive. Four increases are probably. Three are certain. Get ready.

For investors with commonsense portfolios, it’s all good. Equities are not being rattled as monetary stimulus is peeled back, because the economy is solid and corporate profits robust. Meanwhile rising rates will continue to push preferreds higher along with debt yields. So long as you’re not mired in some ‘balanced’ ETF with a bloated bond position, it’s all rewarding. (Bonds get cheaper as rates jump.)

What about real estate?

So far, hiking mortgage costs have lit up newbie buyers, making year-end sales torrid. Expect that to continue until all that cheap pre-approval cash is spent. There’s still a crisis of listings at the same time as demand surges, and now Omicron threatens to make nesting a thing again. Prices in Q1 will probably set a number of new records. But then the clouds move in.

While most buyers have been mom-and-pop domestics, not foreigners, Trudeau’s outright ban on offshore purchases of residential properties is huge. Historic. Imagine if the US did that to Canadians.

And while the feds can’t outlaw blind bidding, since this falls under provincial jurisdiction, they can bring in a tax on short-term ownership. It was an election campaign promise. Now it’s being implemented – and this is the first crack in Canada’s hallowed policy of PR tax exemption. Ottawa say if you buy a home, live in it then sell in too short a period of time (within a year), you’ll be taxed on any profit. Also historic. Thereafter it will be no big deal to change this to two years, or five. Or forever.

Will the combination of steadily rising mortgage rates, an outright ban on non-citizen buyers, a higher stress test (that may come tomorrow) and a new tax on sellers impact real estate values?

In any normal, sane world, the answer is ‘yes!’ In spades.

But this is not normal. Nor sane.

Amidst the swirl of news this week, Royal LePage’s media manipulation managers were busy pumping out their own message. It was simple. Omicron is good.

“We can’t ignore its probable impact on our nation’s real estate market,” said Soper. “It is hard to imagine that the Bank of Canada will begin the inevitable campaign to dampen inflation through higher rates with much still to be learned about Omicron and cases on the rise again. Employers may back-off plans to mandate a return to the office, sustaining the hyper-focus on the importance of the home as a place to both live and work. And, normal travel and entertainment will again be curtailed, continuing the household cash stockpiling trend that has defined the pandemic era.

“All of these economic variables have been shown to stimulate housing activity,” Soper continued. “Many of those looking to purchase a home, whether their first, an upgrade, or a recreational property, stand able to take advantage of increased savings and record-low interest rates.”

Is it time for a scotch yet?

About the picture: “I found the blog in Summer 2020 and I’ve been reading it since. Great stuff. I’ve learned a lot and this summer finally got around to opening a TFSA,” says Travis, in Ottawa. “attached is a picture of our 5 year old Black and Tan Coonhound Jade. She’s a champion show dog with a purple ribbon pedigree. A great pandemic pooch.”

147 comments ↓

#1 Wrk.dover on 12.16.21 at 4:16 pm

On the TV in the background today someone mentioned a guy named Justin Flation.

Who he?

#2 twofatcats on 12.16.21 at 4:23 pm

Dec 16 There truly is a sucker born every minute……

https://www.zolo.ca/port-colborne-real-estate/30-louis-street

There is a reason the realtor is only showing the back door. To see the front door of this gem:

https://www.google.ca/maps/place/30+Louis+St,+Port+Colborne,+ON+L3K+1C3/@42.8855304,-79.2451324,3a,37.5y,15.29h,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sZuv63aOT1tY7NOkOPUjuIg!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DZuv63aOT1tY7NOkOPUjuIg%26cb_client%3Dsearch.gws-prod.gps%26w%3D86%26h%3D86%26yaw%3D15.290505%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0x89d330d8aa98ac15:0x6360a160a329ee80!8m2!3d42.885669!4d-79.2450819

#3 Billy Buoy on 12.16.21 at 4:24 pm

Another opinion on *cough* rate hikes.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unraveling

Inflation isn’t going away friends…

#4 Billy Buoy on 12.16.21 at 4:26 pm

Can we have a reader’s poll on rate hikes, the max amount of them and when they reverse based on stock market drops please?

2 hikes of .25 for a total of .50 and reversed when markets drop 15-20%.

Real rates are for the real world…we left that back in 2009.

#5 MIL is annoying on 12.16.21 at 4:30 pm

My MIL usually stays out of my business but is now chalk full of FOMO… and my patient wife is losing patience.

Awful timing to finally try to buy… FML.

#6 alexinvestor on 12.16.21 at 4:32 pm

There is a world of difference between 1 year RE tax and forever. No one cares about 1 year … forever will get the government kicked out since it turns a significant percentage of voters into single issue voters.

Also, with shutdowns looming again, not sure how the government will square that with raising rates. Amazon will still exist … all those underground retail shops might be gone forever.

#7 XGRO and Chill on 12.16.21 at 4:34 pm

They were wrong about inflation being transitory.

But they are right about 2-3 years of rate hikes happening?

Some people need a lesson in epistemology.

#8 Dolce Vita on 12.16.21 at 4:43 pm

“Wednesday morning Omicron ate* the nation.”

* a nibble, maybe a flesh wound. This is what a CHOMP in progress looks like:

https://i.imgur.com/WiwnGGr.png

————

“Royal LePage’s media manipulation managers were busy pumping** out their own message.”

** pimping

————

Europa continues to go “O” word MAD.

– Sweden no vax passport, no enter country.

NB: when cases go up, TEST LESS (Spain save tourism, Sweden save face, Germany save superiority, South Africa save who knows what? and Canada, you SUCK at testing as usual; though, still dutiful on a daily basis at reporting your MEDIOCRITY).

https://i.imgur.com/qqgb5ch.png
https://i.imgur.com/dDLTu98.png

[ignore Sweden, they don’t test nor report and as for Spain they finally had to report something though you will never see it in their dailies like El Pais]

– London UK Omicron new case DOUBLING TIME:

1.64 days

https://i.imgur.com/74YnfGl.png

[God Bless the UK, France, Portugal, Italia for telling the truth so other nations may be warned and learn from, KUDOS to the UK truth tellers writ LARGE]

– UK testing about to flatline, they’re running out of tests PCR and Linear Flow.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1471163732248174593

– Finally in the WE’VE LOST OUR MARBLES AS A NATION Department, this from Switzerland:

“Unvaccinated people should only be allowed to meet four people”

https://www.20min.ch/story/ungeimpfte-sollen-nur-noch-vier-personen-treffen-duerfen-488311123200

[Ya, no worries for you Canada as for Italia they’re on our border]

————

Even with all that, the UK has not lost its DRY sense of humour:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1471242583649177604

#9 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 4:44 pm

Inflation rising by the month.
Unemployment at historic lows.
Interest rates rises WILL happen.
Housing prices at levels so obscene everyone but Realtors…..is b!tching about them.

It’s only a matter of time now.
For whom the bell tolls.
True Dough and Freelunch.
Picking navel lint out of the politically correct belly button of the National Debt.

They have earned everything that is coming

#10 Linda on 12.16.21 at 4:44 pm

Jade looks like a staunch proponent of the law. Mournful that the law is broken but will take down the evil doers regardless!

While I think the foreign buyers ban political noise with very little actual market impact, I do think banning blind auctions will aid future homebuyers. It may not keep folks from overpaying for the desired item but at least they will know how much others were willing to pay before they ‘won’ the bid. As for the PR exemptions being curtailed I have to agree that this government is easing into the eventual demise of the PR exemption for all. It began with having to register your residence of record ‘just for record keeping, nothing to see here folks’ & has now reached the stage of ‘the exemption doesn’t apply to investors, those who flip properties within X year(s)’. I’m in agreement that eventually it will be full tax on gains regardless of years of ownership. And BTW, without allowing any tax deductions like mortgage interest – after all, the idea is to maximize the take to pay for all that recent government largesse. Someone has to foot the bill & RE owners are about the only tax cow left to milk. Oy!

#11 Kurt on 12.16.21 at 4:45 pm

“Is it time for a scotch?” It’s always time for a scotch!

#12 jerry on 12.16.21 at 4:45 pm

Florida has a Homestead Tax that favours full time USA residence while foreign buyers pay the full freight on residential taxes. There is with holdings to work out upon the sale between IRS and CRA.

#13 Dragonfly 58 on 12.16.21 at 4:45 pm

The Foreign buyers ban is too little too late, It will end up like Mexico where Mexican Citizens on paper at least own the land in Mexico’s restricted areas. But the money often still comes from the outside and is provided by non Mexican’s.
Lots of Canadians both new and old stock will have little problem with a bit of smoke and mirrors if there is a buck in it.

#14 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.16.21 at 4:49 pm

BABY REALTORS ARE BEING CANNIBALIZED!
With my ear to the rail, I am hearing a lot of real estate chatter with regard to real estate agents cutting their commission rates to the bone. I kid you not. With virtually no inventory (listings) realtors are lining up at the soup kitchens. The competition for listings is fierce. There is a no holds bar war in the realty offices, baby realtors are being cannibalized by their former comrades. I kid you not, head office is becoming very concerned, as fewer commission dollars, means their agents are backing up on their desk fees. And horror of horrors, less commission split (dollars) for the mother ship. At this most festive time of the year, there is even talk of the Christmas gala and awards banquet being in serious jeopardy. The go to excuse being floated, Covid restrictions. The point being, why would anyone thinking of selling their home today even consider paying rack rate commission? Read my lips, there is virtually no listing inventory. My advice, negotiate, and negotiate hard, right down to the bone. This opportunity to save money may never, ever, come your way again. The genie is now out of the bottle, when the public finally wakes up to the fact that the 11th commandment handed down from Mount Sinai did not read ” REAL ESTATE COMMISSION RATES ARE NON NEGOTIABLE” The game is up. The seeds of destruction for the real estate cartel and their predatory commission structure are coming to and end. Amen Brother.

#15 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 4:50 pm

One wonders if the spineless gastropods in charge will raise interest rates during the Holidays because , well, they hope no one will notice?

#16 Slim on 12.16.21 at 4:54 pm

And in entertainment news:

Reality star Stephanie Matto is selling farts in a jar for forty-five bucks each.

We are definitely living in the end times. Hurry up, Jesus!

https://torontosun.com/entertainment/celebrity/sweet-smell-of-success-90-day-fiance-star-sells-her-farts-for-45k-a-jar

#17 cramar on 12.16.21 at 5:06 pm

Let’s see…yesterday the stock markets reversed and rose because the FED is raising rates months from now. Today, the markets reversed and sold off (especially Tech Stocks & riskier assets-NASDAQ & TSX), because the FED is raising rates months from now.

So which is it?

I smile and think of a smart investor who said decades ago, that the talking financial heads and gurus on mass media haven’t a clue on what drives markets. They are given a script by the equally clueless. If the market goes up the FED announcement (or Omicron) caused it. If the market goes down the FED announcement (or Omicron) caused it. The “experts” sound like they know what they are talking about.

And anyone who has their eyes open knows that the FED has been saying they are going to raise rates starting in 2022…what for a year now? If the FED was on the ball they would have started raising rates immediately in Sept., not waiting for next year when inflation could likely be in double digits before they act to deal with it.

#18 Dave on 12.16.21 at 5:07 pm

Canada’s debt is huge

Real estate taxes pay the majority of the tab

Trudeau will not allow for a major correction….Canada can not afford it

#19 TurnerNation on 12.16.21 at 5:07 pm

—–ROTFLOL Mods can you pin this post:

“#84 BillyBob on 12.15.21 at 5:58 pm
“From tonight’s presser with Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic Leblanc:
“Traveling abroad could also expose Canadians to people living normally. ‘We are asking Canadians to be cautious.’ Leblanc said. ‘Experiencing basic freedoms and common sense, even for a short time, could be a real shock to many Canadians, and could undermine the effects of two years of brainwashing and fear mongering.’””

— Italy…the social credit score begins.

“Those with the Super Green Pass will be allowed to engage in various activities, such as indoor dining, sports, and other activities, while unvaccinated people would be barred, even in regions that are deemed low-risk, according to the country’s colour-code system.
If a region goes into the most severe colour code — red — then all people, regardless of vaccination status, will have restrictions imposed. That means that all non-essential shops will be closed and other non-essential services will be halted, much like they were before the introduction of the vaccine passport system”

— Seen elsewhere. Remember how the Consp. Theorists told us for years of a shadowy global agenda?(March 2020 was the kick off.) Sally Ann agrees.

https://www.salvationarmy.org/isjc/SDGs
“What are the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)?
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted internationally through the United Nations, provides a blueprint for action and a call to equality and sustainability.

— World news:

https://www.reuters.com/world/refugees-lack-covid-shots-because-drugmakers-fear-lawsuits-documents-2021-12-16/
BRUSSELS/BANGKOK, Dec 16 (Reuters) – Tens of millions of migrants may be denied COVID-19 vaccines from a global programme because some major manufacturers are worried about legal risks from harmful side effects, according to officials and internal documents from Gavi, the charity operating the programme, reviewed by Reuters.

#20 Dolce Vita on 12.16.21 at 5:18 pm

#3 Billy Buoy

I don’t disagree with you (and your #4 is what I think as well) but ZeroHedge and Garth provided counterveilling arguments against and for rate increases.

Forgetting about the ZeroHedge overkill myriad of charts and 2009*, here’s a thought and what we have ALL learned so far in THIS PANDEMIC:

Expect the unexpected.

* 2009 = Ante Christum Natum, 2019 = Anno Domini.

#21 Justin Flation on 12.16.21 at 5:21 pm

It’s good to be back.

#22 Don Guillermo on 12.16.21 at 5:23 pm

My wife and I walked up to a young black family on a busy street corner this afternoon and chatted. Lately we’ve noticed more and more folks around town that looked like they could be migrants and sure enough the young man told me they were Haitians who had made their way to Mexico from Brazil. I knew this was happening in the northern border cities but had no idea Haitians were in Mazatlán. The young man, wife and two children (young boy and girl both under 10) were well dressed and very pleasant. He spoke Spanish, no English and of course they all spoke French. They were a block away from the INM – Mexican Immigration waiting to be processed. They were NOT begging but I gave them a couple of hundred pesos and my wife handed the children some snacks she’d just purchased. It was a very humbling experience. We’ll watch for them over the coming days in case they need more assistance.

#23 TurnerNation on 12.16.21 at 5:26 pm

The Permanent Economic Shutdowns continue in Ontariowe. Their “Re-opening Act” is a CLOSING Act. Flip everything our rulers tell us 180 degrees to make sense.

.Ontario needs ‘immediate circuit breaker’ to blunt spread of Omicron, modelling suggests (toronto.ctvnews.ca)

.Ontario expands eligibility for COVID-19 booster shots, cuts capacity limits in some indoor spaces (toronto.ctvnews.ca)

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/12/toronto-restaurants-close-indoor-dining/
“Some Toronto restaurants are choosing to close for indoor dining and roll back to a takeout-only model as case counts climb and restrictions are tightened again on larger venues.”


— What part of Permanent is not clear? But, you knew this many months ago when Kanada signed contracts for tens of millions of shots into 2022, 2023 & beyond. This is Business folks. The Fed’s own documents show this so:

https://twitter.com/cooper4sae/status/1471256742587740165?s=21
“Michael Cooper, MP @Cooper4SAE This is disturbing. Hidden in the Fiscal and Economic Update, the Liberals are planning to maintain vaccine mandates for 3 more years. These supposedly “temporary” mandates are being made permanent by @JustinTrudeau”

https://www.theundergroundchurch.ca/blog/vaccine-all-the-way-to-2027
“There you have it. 507 millions of dollar in 2026-2027 for the Covid-19 vaccination program.
This is not a conspiracy. They are literally showing us how much they will be spending every year on booster.”

— Life in Kanada is 100% CV Rules. Look at this compliance. Lined up a strict 6-6-6 feet apart outside.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/12/in-and-out-burger-toronto-pop-up/
“Toronto lined up for blocks for the In-N-Out Burger pop-up”

https://twitter.com/TheMarieOakes/status/1471515540338397184
“People in line to get a COVID-19 rapid test at Yorkdale Mall in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.”

Ahem:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distancing
“Distancing is an important concept in all combative sports and arts. It applies to both un-armed and armed combat”

#24 Tim on 12.16.21 at 5:28 pm

DELETED

#25 IHCTD9 on 12.16.21 at 5:30 pm

#16 Slim on 12.16.21 at 4:54 pm
And in entertainment news:

Reality star Stephanie Matto is selling farts in a jar for forty-five bucks each.

We are definitely living in the end times. Hurry up, Jesus!

https://torontosun.com/entertainment/celebrity/sweet-smell-of-success-90-day-fiance-star-sells-her-farts-for-45k-a-jar
—- –

Attn. Fartzy:

Side gig 4U?

#26 Shawn Allen on 12.16.21 at 5:34 pm

The 5 year Canada bond yield is DOWN to 1.18%

The recent high was about 1.60% less than a month ago!

Wow, did the bond market not get the memo about the looming interest rate increases? Just wow.

Will the people who think rates will not and cannot rise be proven right once again? Say it isn’t so.

Rate reset prefs so far not reacting much to the downside.

Strange days indeed.

#27 I'mshort_corpdebt on 12.16.21 at 5:38 pm

– Unraveling

Somebody put it in perspective about CB lunatics in charge. “Talking” about what they might do a year from now is just that, talk. Watch what they do, not what they say.

#28 Billy Buoy on 12.16.21 at 5:42 pm

#20 Dolce Vita

You are right, no one knows the future …..

Rates ideally should rise but can they? Will they?

What are the ramifications to all the debt out there?

Thus as we have seen the past 11 years, no central bank or political party has the nerve to do what is good for the masses…covid included.

2018 was the last time rates went up. Now with everything that has gone on plus the trillions of new debt, you really think governments are going to do anything?

2 hikes of .25 each at the most. Until they prove us wrong.

You keep repeating the same nonsense. No CB would ever raise twice and retreat. Please talk about something you have a passing knowledge of. This is embarrassing. – Garth

#29 Wrk.dover on 12.16.21 at 5:48 pm

#4 Billy Buoy on 12.16.21 at 4:26 pm
Can we have a reader’s poll on rate hikes, the max amount of them and when they reverse based on stock market drops please?
__________________________

I call market drop of 15% as soon as year end bonuses are baked in.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 5:52 pm

@#16 Slim

We are definitely living in the end times. Hurry up, Jesus!

https://torontosun.com/entertainment/celebrity/sweet-smell-of-success-90-day-fiance-star-sells-her-farts-for-45k-a-jar

+++

Godless philistine.
That “gift” is meant to be shared for free.

And I thought “Wrestlemania” was the end of civilization as we knew it.

#31 Michael in-north-york on 12.16.21 at 5:53 pm

Taxing the short-term RE gains is a good idea, and should not be equated to dismantling the Principal Residence exemption altogether.

If the Principal Residence exemption didn’t exist at all, many people would be stuck in their houses purchased decades ago, because they would be unable to buy a comparable or even a somewhat smaller house after they cell and pay a huge tax. That’s the main reason for the exemption.

But if the tax applies to short-term gains only, that will mostly affect the flippers. Flippers buy rundown houses, renovate them, and cell again within a few months or a year, getting a lot more than what they paid originally. In effect that’s their job, but they pay no tax on earnings as they claim the PR exemption.

Regular home sellers will not see huge capital gains if they hold the house for 6 months, 1 year, or even 3 years. Therefore, they will not face the level of taxation that effectively blocks the whole deal.

So, nothing wrong with taxing PR gains for houses hold for less than 5 years, but the inclusion rate should be sliding down as the time passes. Such as 100% of the gain is added to the income if the house is held for less than 1 year, but only 20% of the gain added if it is held for more than 4 and less than 5 years.

#32 Dolce Vita on 12.16.21 at 5:57 pm

#19 TurnerNation

On Italia, as usual, you know NOTHING.

Nor does your absent source, probably an ultra right wing “Give me liberty or give me death” narrative (like Mother Nature cares).

Lights in the room just got turned on you, quick, go scatter.

#33 Adam on 12.16.21 at 5:57 pm

Is SPY(or VOO) a balanced ETF? I’m really thinking of making all my future investments (for retirement) into VOO.

IMO it’s safe, easy, boring, and held in USD.

#34 Crunkulous on 12.16.21 at 5:58 pm

The 2-year ban would be about as effective in stopping foreign ownership as BC’s foreign buyer tax. ZEERO. They’ll just stop being foreign buyers.

#35 Toronto_CA on 12.16.21 at 6:03 pm

Are we still thinking that working from home and hybrid working is a passing fad?
Or have we accepted that a lot of these office towers are going to need to be repurposed?
20 months in and counting.

#36 mark on 12.16.21 at 6:10 pm

Good news for saver/investors, yield finally going up for bonds!

#37 IHCTD9 on 12.16.21 at 6:13 pm

#16 Slim on 12.16.21 at 4:54 pm
And in entertainment news:

Reality star Stephanie Matto is selling farts in a jar for forty-five bucks each.

We are definitely living in the end times. Hurry up, Jesus!

——-

According to my calculations, she would need to fart every 7.6 minutes, 7 days per week while remaining awake for 18 hours per day to earn what the MSM claims she is making (45K/wk)

Something smells a little off with that.

#38 Garth's Son Drake on 12.16.21 at 6:19 pm

Omicron has an R value in NYC higher than anything they have ever witnessed in the pandemic. It replicates in the lungs at twice the pace of Delta.

All regional airports in Canada were recently green lit for International travel.

Full planes are starting this week to trickle into the smaller communities from International destinations.

Right at the holiday travel season.

If you were going to plan for maximum opportunity of spreading of a virus, this would be it. The perfect storm.

In BC, most will have to wait until sometime in 2022 for a booster.

This isn’t going to be a head fake.

We are toast.

#39 Printer is Coming on 12.16.21 at 6:28 pm

The BC Money Laundering Report is being held back for release. No surprise. They need more time to redact.

It is common knowledge that foreign buyers have long found a way (around 5 years ago) to make foreign purchases transact or record as domestic. It is called smurf buying.

I highly recommend you read Sam Cooper’s best selling book: Wilful Blindness, How a Network of Narcos, Tycoons and CCP Agents Infiltrated the West.

And when all else fails, remember: printer is coming.

#40 IHCTD9 on 12.16.21 at 6:43 pm

#31 Michael in-north-york on 12.16.21 at 5:53 pm
Taxing the short-term RE gains is a good idea, and should not be equated to dismantling the Principal Residence exemption altogether.

If the Principal Residence exemption didn’t exist at all, many people would be stuck in their houses purchased decades ago, because they would be unable to buy a comparable or even a somewhat smaller house after they cell and pay a huge tax. That’s the main reason for the exemption.

But if the tax applies to short-term gains only, that will mostly affect the flippers. Flippers buy rundown houses, renovate them, and cell again within a few months or a year, getting a lot more than what they paid originally. In effect that’s their job, but they pay no tax on earnings as they claim the PR exemption.

Regular home sellers will not see huge capital gains if they hold the house for 6 months, 1 year, or even 3 years. Therefore, they will not face the level of taxation that effectively blocks the whole deal.

So, nothing wrong with taxing PR gains for houses hold for less than 5 years, but the inclusion rate should be sliding down as the time passes. Such as 100% of the gain is added to the income if the house is held for less than 1 year, but only 20% of the gain added if it is held for more than 4 and less than 5 years.
—— –

The only way this tax could win is if after 10+ years of ownership, CGT’s on PR’s goes to zero. Say 100% CGT on 5 years or less, and then sliding to zero by 10 years.

There are craploads of folks building/renovating, moving in for a year, then selling claiming as PR. I know folks who have done this 15+ times and counting.

This is untrue: “Flippers buy rundown houses, renovate them, and cell again within a few months or a year, getting a lot more than what they paid originally. In effect that’s their job, but they pay no tax on earnings as they claim the PR exemption.” Gains are taxed as personal income. – Garth

#41 Dr V on 12.16.21 at 6:49 pm

Oh look at those hound eyes.

#42 joe on 12.16.21 at 6:54 pm

BoE just raised rates.

nterest rates are expected to quadruple within months after the Bank of England put up borrowing costs for the first time since Covid hit in a scramble to stave off runaway inflation.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/16/bank-england-raises-interest-rates-first-time-three-years/

#43 willworkforpickles on 12.16.21 at 6:56 pm

Now we will see just how innovative they can be adding more to the debt while tapering as they say they will.
Smoke and mirrors and keep those presses rolling.

#44 Barb on 12.16.21 at 6:56 pm

“Thursday T2 ordered his minions to ban foreign house buyers.”
——————————-

OK, we have some leftover tents from the homeless issue.

#45 ogdoad on 12.16.21 at 7:12 pm

“Royal LePage’s media manipulation managers”.

There’s a degree for that, right?

Og

#46 Quintilian on 12.16.21 at 7:14 pm

“While most buyers have been mom-and-pop domestics, not foreigners, Trudeau’s outright ban on offshore purchases of residential properties is huge. Historic. Imagine if the US did that to Canadians.’

Garth, the Americans do not have to ban offshore buyers.

They have laws and enforce the laws against criminals, drug dealers, and money launders, who inflate residential real estate.

Canada does not enforce the law.

Number of reputable reporters have written on the subject; Kathy Tomlinson, and Sam Cooper are two prominent reporters.

#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.16.21 at 7:28 pm

195 Michael of the North

Nope, a lot of immigrants (me included) will not consider going back.

Moving back to England is a fair option. I could have done that if I had any right to get a British passport.

In case of many other countries-of-origin .. life in Canada is still a lot better than over there. No amount of T2s, or even Dippers, will succeed in making Canada bad enough in my lifetime. And even if they did, it would be easier to fix it here, rather than go back and try to fit in.
————–
Agree.
As for moving to England.
100 k of HongKongers have already moved.
Better get in the line fast.

#48 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.16.21 at 7:35 pm

#22 DG
Seems like few people have done worse in the birth lottery than the Haitians.
One disaster after the other.
Thanks for showing compassion.

#49 Grandv!ew on 12.16.21 at 7:39 pm

Current thinking of Canadian real estate investors.

Our Canadian currency (soon to be pesos) is backed up by our Maple syrup reserves.

Thus rates will never go up since they really don’t need to go up. We can and we will diverge from the
FED.

On to the different subject…….

As the masses are busy trying to survive inflation “smart” individuals are extracting the last ounce of value left in our society. And being the government they don’t have to do anything. Zero projects ?

Needles to say NOTHING will ever be investigated, and EVERYTHING will be swept under the carpet.

“The Canada Infrastructure Bank has 49 employees. Its operating expenses were $24.6 million in 2019-20, up from $11.4 million the prior year.

$16 million of that was employee compensation.

In 2020-21, CIB projects expenses of $88.4 million.

Zero projects have been completed.”

https://twitter.com/Hannah_Bananaz/status/1471145864697552900

This lady is sharp cookie and I wish that someone either confirms if it’s true what she is saying or involved parties deny the accusations.

#50 The Dude on 12.16.21 at 7:45 pm

Is there any stats regarding the current percentage of all properties in Canada that foreigners own? I have never been able to find it. Or do they bury those stats for a reason?

This blog has published such data. Overall, in the largest urban areas, it averages less than 5%. Blaming foreigners is a fav pastime of the covetous and politicians. – Garth

#51 Kirk on 12.16.21 at 7:47 pm

When does covid become classed as an endemic virus? I bet it’s right after omicron.

#52 Blacksheep on 12.16.21 at 7:50 pm

“Ottawa say if you buy a home, live in it then sell in too short a period of time (within a year), you’ll be taxed on any profit. Also historic.”
——————————–
Is this not the way it has always been, in BC anyway?

#53 There is no tax break on houses on 12.16.21 at 7:51 pm

We have paid $151,000 in property taxes so why am I not allowed to deduct that from any taxes on selling my houses. We have owned the house for 44 years now and the BS that homeowners have won the lottery for owning a primary property, house from those at the BC university idiots is so ridiculous.

We have paid so much to keep, maintain our home and many taxes from property taxes to HST/GST on renovations, utilities, repairs, mortgage payments, CMHC premiums etc.

There are so many taxes that already exist from all levels of government real estate and not real estate related that this is such BS Liberal, socialist propaganda.

#54 Freddy Jason on 12.16.21 at 7:51 pm

#38 Garth’s Son Drake on 12.16.21 at 6:19 pm
Omicron has an R value in NYC higher than anything they have ever witnessed in the pandemic. It replicates in the lungs at twice the pace of Delta.

All regional airports in Canada were recently green lit for International travel.

Full planes are starting this week to trickle into the smaller communities from International destinations.

Right at the holiday travel season.

If you were going to plan for maximum opportunity of spreading of a virus, this would be it. The perfect storm.

In BC, most will have to wait until sometime in 2022 for a booster.

This isn’t going to be a head fake.

We are toast.

>>>>

Delta wasn’t “The Flu”
Omicron isn’t “The Cold”

Be afraid. Be very very afraid.

#55 Darren on 12.16.21 at 7:58 pm

Mark, true, Hubert Financial has a 3%, 5 year GIC, RRSP, TFSA. This is 15.927% in 5 years compound interest and is best used in a TFSA, RRSP. I would wait longer to lock in as 4% to 5% 5 year GIC, term posit rates are here in 12 to 18 months.

Why would you invest for a negative real return? – Garth

#56 DON on 12.16.21 at 8:13 pm

Now that was informative and factual. A breath of fresh air to say the least.

News sources are pretty crappy these days.

Is it too early to bow our heads in a moment of thought for the Greater Fools?

#57 Blacksheep on 12.16.21 at 8:15 pm

Dolce, Garth’s kid & Chicken little,

Wow, this deadly new Omicron strain sounds absolutely terrible…my god, there must be 10’s of thousands poor souls perishing daily?

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/omicron-deaths/

#58 mike from mtl on 12.16.21 at 8:24 pm

#35 Toronto_CA on 12.16.21 at 6:03 pm
Are we still thinking that working from home and hybrid working is a passing fad?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Well at least in QC, it’s now official to WFH again, cap limits back and most probably school closures and more of the same come January.

Already the sublease market here is as flush as 2009, 2022 lockdown will just cement in WFH is a viable solution and the cube farm is not required. CRE moves at glacial speed so it will take decades of churn before even a penny psf of reduction.

On the ground yes things are truly grim, hey can’t change the playbook and look officially stupid right?

Maybe the banks and governments who own their locales can pocket the useless rents but everyone else has a new option: download all the costs of housing employees to them. Short term yes local employees get to control their own time, long term they can near source without much effort.

#59 DON on 12.16.21 at 8:41 pm

#7 XGRO and Chill on 12.16.21 at 4:34 pm
They were wrong about inflation being transitory.

But they are right about 2-3 years of rate hikes happening?

Some people need a lesson in epistemology.

**********

They were pitching the transitory opinion so they could ignore inflationary pressures and not raise rates.

I would be more worried about them under reporting rate hikes to continue to save face. They could have that wrong as well, it could get faster and higher than they want to admit. Something that happened in 70/80s.

Yesterday everyone expected a stock decline…but there was more of a rebalancing out of risky into utilities as one analyst remarked. The over inflated Tech stocks are taking it on the chin.

The stock market can tread water longer than mom and pop investor or the over indebted house owner. And it looks like inflation is not going away by summer. Things are still unfolding.

#60 Adrian on 12.16.21 at 8:43 pm

Garth, forget Scotch! Irish whiskey is the value leader (Bushmills is my favourite at its price). Or start drinking tequila. I’ve been enjoying sipping on that lately.

#61 Don't fight the Fed on 12.16.21 at 8:50 pm

Glenfiddish,

Bought some Kinross below book at 52 week low , 16% ROE to boot.

Might have a couple.

#62 Quintilian on 12.16.21 at 9:02 pm

#50 The Dude

“Is there any stats regarding the current percentage of all properties in Canada that foreigners own? I have never been able to find it. Or do they bury those stats for a reason?”

The real stats are hard to get at because many of the speculators and criminals hide behind the veil of numbered companies.

Others use “mules” housewives and students with no income, buying multimillion dollar homes and have no legitimate income source.

BC has recently passed a law that states the beneficiary holders of the numbered companies have to be named.

#63 calguy on 12.16.21 at 9:04 pm

Where are the numbers reported for hospitalizations and deaths? We know the numbers are going up. We know Omicron is more transmissible but less severe. Listening to people on the radio today in Calgary, they are fed up and have had enough. Most people said they are fully vaxed, and need a break for mental and physical health. We should be treating this new variant like H1N1 (glad we didn’t have all social media panic then). Where is the gov’t data on the testing being done at airports? They only put in rules about ten days ago to get tested 24 hours before going to USA, and PCR test coming back. All other arrivals need negative test and get tested on arrival. Again all we hear is that more restrictions are necessary. Wear a mask and avoid large gatherings is a proven strategy.
As far as inflation goes, his will hurt more people with increasing costs. Young people will have a huge price to pay for this in years to come paying down the ginormous debt of this government. Critical thinking people!! You elected a drama teacher! If he didn’t have his last name, he would be long gone!

#64 Omicron Kenobi on 12.16.21 at 9:04 pm

I’m coming to get you all.

#65 Ballingsford on 12.16.21 at 9:06 pm

Is that dogs lower lip pierced? Looks like it.

There is no way to build affordable housing. Land, materials, and labor cost a lot. The builders won’t build for free.

#66 Nonplused on 12.16.21 at 9:11 pm

“And Thursday T2 ordered his minions to ban foreign house buyers, outlaw blind bidding, increase downpayments on investment properties and start dismantling the principal residence capital gains exemption.”

The first 3 I can kind of see having an effect on housing demand, but dismantling the principle residence capital gain exemption? How is that going to have any affect on housing demand? The whole point of a primary residence is that the owner lives in the property and there are already all kinds of rules around that. So how is taxing them upon sale going to produce more houses?

Nope, not going to happen. Instead it’ll force more seniors to stay in their houses rather than move to a home because they simply can’t afford to sell and pay for the home since Trudeau took their money. And it’ll change the economics of relocating for work or stepping up to a larger home for family reasons. Or even downsizing upon becoming an empty nester. In short, effecting a tax on primary residences will have the economic consequence of making it more expensive to sell and thus discourage real estate activity. Hence, more friction in the market not less.

It’s just a tax grab, plain and simple. But people will avoid it by never selling if they can.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 9:19 pm

6 years ago the Province of BC Declares a medical state of emergency due to rising overdose deaths.

8000 dead to date.

6 people a day dying now.

Doctors want to provide “safe” medical heroin.

Other doctors ask,
“Is providing “safe” heroin “it”? Is that all we’re going to do? Just continue to provide free heroin?”

#68 CanadianOne on 12.16.21 at 9:27 pm

FOMC Economic Projections

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20211215.pdf

Page 4 shows the dot-plot for what FED members and participants think future rates will be. IF it turns out to be the direction JPow & Co follow, the range is 1.75% to 3.25% by 2024. All the way from current 0.25%.

Let the chips fall.

Cheers

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 9:28 pm

Uh Oh

Canadians aren’t believing what the govt is telling them about inflation.

Most people expect to change their spending habits to afford groceries, avoid dining out, spending less on unnecessary items.

How many billions will the Libs toss into the inflation bonfire to stave off a complete rout in the next election.

Will our non finance Finance Minister Freelunch and True Dough eat crow?

Only the polls will tell.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 9:31 pm

@#60 Adrian
“Garth, forget Scotch! Irish whiskey is the value leader (Bushmills is my favourite at its price)”

+++

If you’re going to drink gutrot….at least drink something that doesnt taste like a cross between cough syrup and gasoline.
Best Irish Whiskey bang for the buck. Red Breast

#71 Doug t on 12.16.21 at 9:38 pm

Omicron is a Transformer ?

#72 twofatcats on 12.16.21 at 9:43 pm

Dec 16 Today’s flipped ‘Principal Residences’

https://www.zolo.ca/welland-real-estate/152-viger-drive#sold-history

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/EXrx30XWjeD3OklN/159-Humboldt-Parkway-Port-Colborne-H4123187

https://www.zolo.ca/st-catharines-real-estate/4-adel-drive#sold-history
https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/XeEn7X6rkB0YrPo8/4-ADEL-Drive-St-Catharines-40035372

#73 uncle dave on 12.16.21 at 9:54 pm

justinflation is real as we’ll all find out, good luck dogs,

#74 Zhaid on 12.16.21 at 10:18 pm

I know where Darren is coming from. It is not about rate of return but savings and paying down debt. Most people like me are concerned about making their RRSP max, reinvest RRSP tax refunds, TFSA max. They save more and have more with 25% to 35% savings yearly from their gross income. In 20 to 25 years, no mortgage, no more debts, $800,000 to $1,100,000 and not relying in old age on reverse mortgages and lines of credit on a house, condo. If this is a negative return than I will gladly take it.

#75 Jake on 12.16.21 at 10:27 pm

Darren, I wish I had Say $5,000,000 in a 5 year 3% Hubert Financial GIC. Going by the numbers here 15.927% over 5 years is $796,350 in compound interest. I would even take half of that.

And you would still have less purchasing power than when you started. BTW, “Hubert Financial”? Seriously? – Garth

#76 PastThePeak on 12.16.21 at 10:35 pm

I don’t share the enthusiasm that rate hikes for 3 years will not cause much of an impact on the markets or economy.

Outside of employment rate and inflation boosting nominal GDP, there isn’t much to crow about the US economy. Propped up by fiscal stimulus (which Joe Manchin is ensuring doesn’t continue) and monetary stimulus (which Mr. Powell is taking away), it looks like a couple of cliffs there as we move into 2022.

Inflation, when comparing apples-to-apples from the 70s/80s, is the highest in US history, while the Federal reserve is essentially trapped from their QE and low rates of the last decade. The US equity markets are at all time high valuations when looking at multiple metrics (higher than 2000 and 1929), all based on low rates, liquidity, and the belief the Fed will *always* step in to save them.

Let’s see where we are a year from now. My guess is that after two rate hikes, and 6 months with no QE, the markets and economy will be showing some significant wobbles. Not sure the Fed will make more than 4 total 25bps moves before it reverses course. Just look at the volatility of the last couple weeks!

Anyways – invest accordingly…

#77 Sail Away on 12.16.21 at 10:56 pm

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 9:19 pm

6 people a day dying now.

Doctors want to provide “safe” medical heroin.

Other doctors ask,

“Is providing “safe” heroin “it”? Is that all we’re going to do? Just continue to provide free heroin?”

——–

Well, if so, this vaunted subsidized healthcare system will have officially reached peak stupid.

Your tax dollars at work.

#78 Michael in-north-york on 12.16.21 at 11:03 pm

#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.16.21 at 7:28 pm

195 Michael of the North

Nope, a lot of immigrants (me included) will not consider going back.

Moving back to England is a fair option. I could have done that if I had any right to get a British passport.

In case of many other countries-of-origin .. life in Canada is still a lot better than over there. No amount of T2s, or even Dippers, will succeed in making Canada bad enough in my lifetime. And even if they did, it would be easier to fix it here, rather than go back and try to fit in.
————–
Agree.
As for moving to England.
100 k of HongKongers have already moved.
Better get in the line fast.
===

I am not eligible in any way.

Those HongKongers who did move to England, made a good move. A win for them and a win for England.

#79 cuke and tomato picker on 12.16.21 at 11:10 pm

I am very happy to be born in CANADA we have the charmed life here. I am also happy with our government
both federally and here in B.C. I have no difficulty
showing respect for almost all the people we have elected. Those who mock the people we elect should
run in the next election and solve what they feel is wrong in this wonderful country.

#80 Julio on 12.16.21 at 11:16 pm

As much as I hate to admit it but these guys were right so far, and it looks like they have a point: when the demand outpaces the supply by that much, the rising rates will not have a big impact on the house prices. More, the huge drop in the prices would be worse than what we have now, since 70% of Canadians are home owners.
https://financialpost.com/real-estate/housing-markets-in-canada-continue-to-defy-gravity-and-the-pandemic

#81 AntMan on 12.16.21 at 11:17 pm

Chrystia has instructions to implement the bank tax. More info tomorrow. Let the games begin.
Here’s the letter https://pm.gc.ca/en/mandate-letters/2021/12/16/deputy-prime-minister-and-minister-finance-mandate-letter

#82 PastThePeak on 12.16.21 at 11:21 pm

#54 Freddy Jason on 12.16.21 at 7:51 pm

Delta wasn’t “The Flu”
Omicron isn’t “The Cold”

Be afraid. Be very very afraid.
++++++++++++++++++++

Disclaimer: I am currently fully vaxed, and recommend it to anyone above 50 years old, and those with risk factors.

No, it isn’t the flu, but it isn’t what you claim. Here are a few stats to noodle on. All from the Ottawa Public Health website (as that data was readily available by age category).

Ottawa is a metro of ~1M people, so it makes the math easier (for some…). The data here is likely representative of the country.

Total deaths so far = 618 (of 1M)

After 21 months of Covid arriving on our shores:
– Deaths under 20 = 0
– Deaths under 40 = 2
– Deaths between 40 and 49 = 8
– Deaths between 50 and 59 = 30

Total deaths under 60 years old = 40. Over 21 months. Of those in this category that died *with Covid*, most would have had multiple risk factors, primarily obesity.

Those most at risk are the very elderly (75+) and the obese. These populations should be highly encouraged to get every vaccine and booster possible, boost up their Vit.D levels, and receive extra support/care so they can self-isolate when needed.

The rest of us need to get on with our lives…

#83 Cici on 12.16.21 at 11:28 pm

#37 IHCTD9 on 12.16.21 at 6:13 pm
#16 Slim on 12.16.21 at 4:54 pm
And in entertainment news:

Reality star Stephanie Matto is selling farts in a jar for forty-five bucks each.
We are definitely living in the end times. Hurry up, Jesus!
——-
According to my calculations, she would need to fart every 7.6 minutes, 7 days per week while remaining awake for 18 hours per day to earn what the MSM claims she is making (45K/wk)
Something smells a little off with that.
_____________________________________________

I think her parents are buying up all those farts. Nobody else would. That’s just what good Millennial parents would do, after all.

Claims she has made 45K in a week. I’d like to know just how much tax was skimmed off the top of the “fruits” of that tooty labour.

And I present you with the two wittiest comments I saw on the subject (in the Toronto Sun article), both by someone called “John Purchase”:

“Maybe she could diversify and liquify her assets?”

“It’s one thing to fart in a jar, it’s something completely different knowing it could be a lucrative business venture.
It’s just going to lead to expansion, and people will be looking for a more solid investment.”

#84 Citizen in Kelowna on 12.16.21 at 11:28 pm

What’s your favourite Scotch Garth?

#85 George Kwok on 12.16.21 at 11:37 pm

Banning foreign buyers is stupid. Not recognizing foreign buyers as being present and having a pronounced effect on prices is where Canada’s politically correct pundits proved themselves “stupidest.

Smarter moves would have been to leave locals alone to buy whatever wherever , second, third, vacation , speculate, as usual. But to tar all buyers with the same brush because you can’t say “ Chinese national “ outright for fear of sounding “racist” has totally been a doofus move.

Singapore for ex: dealt with the same flood of China National ( same look different passport) by piling on ‘ Stamp Duty’ . It costs Chinese nationals 30% more tax selling price. This method beat back even the most aggressive speculation. Canada screwed up, big time by curtailing local ownership and not recognizing foreign passports as a different animal. Now of course, because everyone has to be silent or called @racist”, it’s screwed up for everyone regardless of race and nationality. BTW they’re not the same .

Singapore wins this round. But of course, Singapore is a meritocracy. They only allow really smart qualified experts to run for political office instead of the Canadian electoral balls up of only allowing the worst qualified inexperienced to manage things.

And, there’s an amazing example of multiculturalism for Canada to follow. Difference in Singapore is that no matter what color or race, if you’re unqualified from any ethnicity or tribe it won’t get you promoted under any circumstance. Management in Singapore is left to managers. There would never be a Trudeau at the helm in Singapore. It’s not that Singaporeans don’t enjoy entertainment, but they want a strong economy above all else.

#86 Ponnaps on 12.16.21 at 11:39 pm

Foreign ownership..BC and now the Fed..clearly statscan knows a thing or two on what’s going on..certainly more than a certain pathetic blog..
Volumes don’t matter ..the last sold price on the street is all it takes..

#87 willworkforpickles on 12.17.21 at 12:52 am

#49 Grandv!ew
“rates will never go up since they really don’t need to go up. We can and we will diverge from the
FED.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

“… Inevitably rate increases by the Federal Reserve affect Canadian borrowers. The rule of thumb is that while the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes affect short-term borrowing such as lines of credit, hikes in the U.S. rates have a bigger impact on longer-term loans such as mortgages…”

The only divergence from the Fed being seen is in Canada getting the jump on the US raising their rates a little before the Fed does to cool inflation there.
The BoC isn’t going to diverge from the Fed either way by any significant extent in effect throwing economic trade out of balance.
Expect no significant divergence from the Fed letting rates rise well over BoC rates for the sake of RE.
Macklem in fact is leading the charge in the opposite direction ahead of the Fed to cool inflation.
A little divergence to make the BoC boys look and feel important perhaps, but nothing truly significant will come about in that regard.

#88 Jane24 on 12.17.21 at 1:10 am

Hey Dolce Vita we had 88,000 cases of Covid in the last 24 hours in Britain. Beat that. We are trying for a round 100,000 cases a day in the next 48 hours. The mad thing is that no-one here cares anymore. You only need masks in a shop and the night clubs are open as our govt is imploding over Covid. We are fed-up of Covid. We have so much booze in our house for Christmas that our cabinet doors on the drinks cabinet don’t close any more. In my 67 years I have never lived in such a mad time. Govt stats are suggesting 450,000 cases a day by Christmas Eve! Surely by that point Covid will run out of unvaccinated and unboostered victims.

On the plus side Britain delivered 750,000 boosters into arms in the same 24 hours with hopes of hitting a million a day by Saturday.

Get ready Canada. Omicron is coming for you. Who knows when we will see our southern Italian palazzo again.

#89 Jennifer on 12.17.21 at 1:21 am

Okay Garth, I respect your opinions(most of the time), but really, do you actually believe that interest rates can go up in 2022, 2023 and perhaps 2024 and not killing the over blown stock market?

I can’t wait to have higher rates to finally give savers some respect, but, it won’t take much of a interest rates to blow the whole economy into supernova.

Over the years, Central Banks around the world were
lowering rates to keep the broken Humpty Dumpty going. We are going into Japanese financial doom.
Stock market, housing, will collapse. Never ending borrowing by ‘everyone’ will continue. Without it, it’s over.

Who knows what comes next, we have never borrowed so much around the world. World is going to make history as what not to do.

#90 Serge on 12.17.21 at 1:40 am

Ontario reports 2,421 new COVID-19 cases; highest daily tally in 7 months

“The Ministry of Health says that of the new cases, 1,530 are fully vaccinated, while 686 are unvaccinated, 72 are partially vaccinated and 133 have an unknown vaccination status.”

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-reports-2-421-new-covid-19-cases-highest-daily-tally-in-7-months-1.5709895

Each day it becomes more difficult to blame the unvaxxed.

#91 millmech on 12.17.21 at 2:07 am

#77 Sail Away
I take it that you did not get the memo, drug addiction is now a disease, I see commercials touting this all the time now.

#92 Schoolie on 12.17.21 at 6:11 am

“Households can take advantage of increased savings.”
Savings? With an average household debt to income level north of 170%?…..
Surely you jest.

#93 George Kwok on 12.17.21 at 8:12 am

We need answers from the Prime Minister.

1) why he has not stated absolutely that he will not entertain the country by repatriating any more known terrorists.

https://nationalpost.com/news/parents-of-alleged-ex-isil-follower-ask-rcmp-to-probe-his-reported-torture-in-kurdish-syrian-prison

2) he must make decision on Chinas forceful demand that Canada must accept Huawei – or else.

What are the answers?

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:14 am

Omicron.
Massive infection rate.
And no rise in hospitalizations or deaths.
Omi-yawn.

Haiku over.

#95 Dharma Bum on 12.17.21 at 8:19 am

Do Maritimers count as foreigners?

Or, at least, Newfoundlanders?

What about people from Quebec?

Visiting those places is fun and interesting because it’s like going to a foreign country.

#96 Phylis on 12.17.21 at 8:23 am

#80 AntMan on 12.16.21 at 11:17 pm
Chrystia has instructions to implement the bank tax. More info tomorrow. Let the games begin.
Here’s the letter https://pm.gc.ca/en/mandate-letters/2021/12/16/deputy-prime-minister-and-minister-finance-mandate-letter
Zzzzz
To extend the life of home appliances, introduce a 15 per cent tax credit of up to $500 to cover the cost of repairs performed by technicians.
Xxxxxx
Our PM in action. His fridge musta broke at some point. So much for the dyi’rs.

#97 VladTor on 12.17.21 at 8:26 am

#2 twofatcats

*********
HA-ha-ha!!!!
Gold rush here!

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:27 am

@#90 millmech

“I take it that you did not get the memo, drug addiction is now a disease, I see commercials touting this all the time now.”

++++
Yeah catchy phrase.

I’ve always considered “addiction” whether it’s booze, drugs, cigarettes, gambling, too many fancy shoes, too many watches, whatever…. as some sort of genetic aberration.

Some gene is lacking or there’s one too many.
If it was a disease we could all catch it and they would be working on a vaccine.

#99 VladTor on 12.17.21 at 8:30 am

Just for info about healthy economy.

On December 17, 2021, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the key rate by 100 bp, to 8.50% per annum. Inflation is growing above the October forecast of the Bank of Russia. The contribution to inflation from the side of stable factors remains significant due to the faster expansion of demand compared to the possibilities of increasing output. Under these conditions and taking into account growing inflationary expectations, the balance of inflation risks is significantly shifted towards pro-inflationary ones. This can lead to a more significant and prolonged inflation deviation upwards from the target. The monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Russia is aimed at limiting this risk and bringing inflation back to 4%.

If the situation develops in accordance with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia admits the possibility of a further increase in the key rate at the next meetings. Decisions on the key rate will be made taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, the development of the economy over the forecast horizon, as well as the assessment of risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 4.0–4.5% by the end of 2022 and will remain close to 4% in the future.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:40 am

@#88 Jennifer
“Okay Garth, I respect your opinions(most of the time), but really, do you actually believe that interest rates can go up in 2022, 2023 and perhaps 2024 and not killing the over blown stock market?”

+++
Like Canada has a choice.

Interest rates aren’t about the stock market or Realtors driving Porsches to their open houses.
That’s smoke and mirrors

Say the liber-idiots in charge of the Taxpayers piggy bank decide to NOT raise rates as every other G7 country does raise rates?

Say they keep spending like its 2020 …..
Free money, free daycare, free medicare, free university, free housing, free free free.

Higher and higher taxes gotta pay for that.
Not much point in working if 60, 70, 80% of your pay cheque goes to taxes, user fees and extra charges.

What happens to our dollar? Our economy, our jobs?

Venezuela here we come.

Raise the rates now, raise them often and raise them until every Realtor has handed in the leased keys.
The stock market be damned.

#101 earthboundmisfit on 12.17.21 at 8:53 am

“Is it time for a scotch?” It’s always time for a scotch!

The sun is always over the yardarm, somewhere. That doesn’t make you an alcoholic. It makes you a pirate. Arrgh!

#102 Wrk.dover on 12.17.21 at 9:05 am

#83 Citizen in Kelowna on 12.16.21 at 11:28 pm
What’s your favourite Scotch Garth?
___________________________

The least favorite of any product is a more helpful consumer education question. Asking the favorite is more handy for gifting knowledge. Maybe there was bottle intended with the answer Garth!

#103 Quintilian on 12.17.21 at 9:16 am

“What the market basically is saying to the Fed is, you won’t be able to raise rates much. And if you did, you would have done it by now.”

And that is what I have been saying and continue to say.

So far the market understands the need to raise rates and has provided a green light. You guys are so behind the curve. – Garth

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 9:42 am

@#92 G. Kwok
” he must make decision on Chinas forceful demand that Canada must accept Huawei – or else.”

++++
Good point.

Next time we catch a Huawei executive flying through Canada while arrogantly ignoring Interpol arrest warrants, we’ll arrest them and send them to a Syrian Kurdish prison to be interrogated.

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 9:45 am

@#94 Dee Bee

“Visiting those places is fun and interesting because it’s like going to a foreign country.”

+++

Because none of them speak english?

#106 The Dude on 12.17.21 at 10:00 am

Is there any stats regarding the current percentage of all properties in Canada that foreigners own? I have never been able to find it. Or do they bury those stats for a reason?

This blog has published such data. Overall, in the largest urban areas, it averages less than 5%. Blaming foreigners is a fav pastime of the covetous and politicians. – Garth

Totally agree. Thanks for the stat Garth. Something to throw at my friends now.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 10:08 am

@#102 Quinty the Questionable
“What the market basically is saying ….”

+++

Oh wise sage.

Could you possibly opine on what Canadian voters will say when they receive their first pay cheques in 2022 and realize the Liberals have dipped once again into their hard earned wages with additional CPP and EI deductions?

Will taxpayers be happy and understanding?
It’s for the greater Liberal good?
Please advise.

#108 The joy of steerage on 12.17.21 at 10:19 am

#87 Jane24 on 12.17.21 at 1:10 am
Hey Dolce Vita we had 88,000 cases of Covid in the last 24 hours in Britain. Beat that. We are trying for a round 100,000 cases a day in the next 48 hours. The mad thing is that no-one here cares anymore. You only need masks in a shop and the night clubs are open as our govt is imploding over Covid. We are fed-up of Covid. We have so much booze in our house for Christmas that our cabinet doors on the drinks cabinet don’t close any more. In my 67 years I have never lived in such a mad time. Govt stats are suggesting 450,000 cases a day by Christmas Eve! Surely by that point Covid will run out of unvaccinated and unboostered victims.

On the plus side Britain delivered 750,000 boosters into arms in the same 24 hours with hopes of hitting a million a day by Saturday.

Get ready Canada. Omicron is coming for you. Who knows when we will see our southern Italian palazzo again.

We appeciate the sacrifice Lady Jane… it must be tough…. hubby hasn’t emptied the bottles yet?

#109 Ballingsford on 12.17.21 at 10:19 am

How long does a jar fart last? If you open the cap and smell it, will it be there the 2nd time you open it?

#110 Ballingsford on 12.17.21 at 10:40 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 9:45 am
@#94 Dee Bee

“Visiting those places is fun and interesting because it’s like going to a foreign country.”

+++

Because none of them speak english.
*****

Maritimers and Newfoundlanders speak English. I’ve always enjoyed the way people from NFLD speak. Stay where you to, come where your at, going to store to get a bun of bread, etc.

My history is NFLD and Cape Breton, so I relish all of it.

#111 Observer on 12.17.21 at 11:02 am

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:14 am
Omicron.
Massive infection rate.
And no rise in hospitalizations or deaths.
Omi-yawn.

Haiku over.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hospitalizations and deaths lag initial infection by 2-3 weeks thus true impact on our ICU’s has not been felt yet. And because Omicron spreads so rapidly, even though possibly less severe, in absolute numbers terms, we may soon see hospitals overwhelmed again.

#112 Observer on 12.17.21 at 11:14 am

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:27 am

Some gene is lacking or there’s one too many.
If it was a disease [addiction] we could all catch it and they would be working on a vaccine.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Just because something is a “disease” doesn’t mean we can work on a vaccine to prevent it. Vaccines are only possible for infectious disease. For example there is no vaccine for diabetes as it is not caused by a virus, bacteria or other pathogen.

#113 Dr V on 12.17.21 at 11:22 am

109 Ballingsford

Was on a bike ride the other day. Was with an Aussie, a
Scot, a South African and a Quebecois.

I had to drop back to find someone who spoke English.
The Mexican chap did.

#114 Caffeine Monkey on 12.17.21 at 11:24 am

The overweighted contribution of real estate and construction to the Canadian economy over the past many years has insulated us from the reality that our economy is a paper tiger. Once these two sectors go into recession, we’ll get to see how resilient the Canadian economy really is.

#115 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.17.21 at 11:31 am

#99 CEF
Venezuela here we come.
Good, and take Sailo along.

#116 Yukon Elvis on 12.17.21 at 11:42 am

#105 The Dude on 12.17.21 at 10:00 am
Is there any stats regarding the current percentage of all properties in Canada that foreigners own? I have never been able to find it. Or do they bury those stats for a reason?

This blog has published such data. Overall, in the largest urban areas, it averages less than 5%. Blaming foreigners is a fav pastime of the covetous and politicians. – Garth

Totally agree. Thanks for the stat Garth. Something to throw at my friends now.
+++++++++++++
You can also tell them that the inflation rate for the past ten years was only 2% and that it is only a transient 4% now.

#117 Damifino on 12.17.21 at 11:47 am

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz

I’ve always considered “addiction” whether it’s booze, drugs, cigarettes, gambling, too many fancy shoes, too many watches, whatever…. as some sort of genetic aberration.
———————————-

A genetic aberration is a disease. One that can often benefit from treatment. For example, I have myopia. I didn’t catch it from anyone and no one caught it from me. It’s genetic, but there are decent remedies.

If I were addicted to gambling there might be help for me. Perhaps even pharmaceutical help (which could prove addictive). As it is, I find gambling a complete bore. I think that’s genetic too.

#118 Don Guillermo on 12.17.21 at 11:49 am

#48 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.16.21 at 7:35 pm
#22 DG
Seems like few people have done worse in the birth lottery than the Haitians.
One disaster after the other.
************************************
So true. Worst birth lottery in the western hemisphere and one of the worst in the world. It’s hard to imagine they were once a very wealthy French colony albeit hundreds of years back. I recall flying over the island of Hispaniola years ago and the deforestation line between DR and Haiti was glaring. Two different worlds.

#119 Faron on 12.17.21 at 12:02 pm

#77 Sail Away on 12.16.21 at 10:56 pm
#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 9:19 pm

Tell me you don’t understand harm reduction without telling me “I don’t understand harm reduction”.

Obviously not the cure for the problem (someone needs to grow a spine and do what it takes to cut fentanyl/precursor imports). And while the Sackler debacle was/is disgusting, it’s kind of a red herring w/re the opiod crisis.

Back to administering opiates in hospitals. A couple cents per dose of an opiate (non black market rate) + cost of the nurse to administer or tens to hundreds of thousands for EMS and hospital care for continual overdoses. A point of contact with addicts or just let ’em rot until they show on the medical radar with massive, expensive, needs.

I refer to price here because that’s obviously the only thing important to you — the value in actually helping humans in need at any cost is beyond your self-centered ken. Disgusting from someone who tries his damnedest to tell us what his net worth is (SA, Crowdie, we already know your net worth is measured in bullion, bullets, bunkers and beans).

Idiots.

#120 IHCTD9 on 12.17.21 at 12:10 pm

#109 Ballingsford on 12.17.21 at 10:40 am

Maritimers and Newfoundlanders speak English. I’ve always enjoyed the way people from NFLD speak. Stay where you to, come where your at, going to store to get a bun of bread, etc.

My history is NFLD and Cape Breton, so I relish all of it.
_______

Here is a NFLD’er who has developed some of the best sheet metal working techniques I’ve ever seen. Some amazing vid’s doing some complicated work. Well worth having a look if you like watching a guy who is a master plying his trade. Check out the comments too. This guy just drips talent and experience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u31t13QO6A

You’ll get your fill of our East Coast dialect at the same time too!

“I justs weldser up and grindser up, nutin fancy, se?”

:)

#121 Sail Away on 12.17.21 at 12:14 pm

#111 Observer on 12.17.21 at 11:14 am
#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:27 am

Some gene is lacking or there’s one too many.
If it was a disease [addiction] we could all catch it and they would be working on a vaccine.

———

Just because something is a “disease” doesn’t mean we can work on a vaccine to prevent it. Vaccines are only possible for infectious disease. For example there is no vaccine for diabetes as it is not caused by a virus, bacteria or other pathogen.

———

Last weekend I chose to stay awake and binge watch ‘La Reina del Sur’ until 3am. The next day I had a serious case of a strange sleepiness disease.

#122 Sail Away on 12.17.21 at 12:24 pm

Watch that progressiveness, Canada. It’s a disease:

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wonder-land-henninger/wsj-opinion-blame-progressive-voters-for-rising-crime/4A0E0982-5A37-468C-9E6A-30F20C7E7166

#123 Prince Polo on 12.17.21 at 1:01 pm

It’s time for the shyster real estate cartel to be absolutely obliterated and re-imagined with fiduciary duty as its prime objective. Then, we can celebrate with the scotch a-flowin’!

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 1:04 pm

@#111 Observer
“Vaccines are only possible for infectious disease. For example there is no vaccine for diabetes as it is not caused by a virus, bacteria or other pathogen.”

+++

Exactly.
Just like drug addiction.
Thank you for making my point.

#125 Comrade on 12.17.21 at 1:35 pm

#110 Observer on 12.17.21 at 11:02 am

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:14 am
Omicron.
Massive infection rate.
And no rise in hospitalizations or deaths.
Omi-yawn.

Haiku over.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hospitalizations and deaths lag initial infection by 2-3 weeks thus true impact on our ICU’s has not been felt yet. And because Omicron spreads so rapidly, even though possibly less severe, in absolute numbers terms, we may soon see hospitals overwhelmed again
—-

It’s been 4 weeks since detected in South Africa no spike in hospitalizations, probably longer than we think here. I think we would have early indications if it was more dangerous by now. the contrary is true. So fingers crossed, this might be the first good news in two years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 1:52 pm

Just when I thought some semblance of sanity had returned to the planet…
Swedish hooligans burn the Straw Christmas Goat….. again.

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/giant-swedish-yule-goat-torched-again-after-5-year-respite-2021-12-17/

#127 Diamond Dog on 12.17.21 at 1:54 pm

About the roaring 20’s all over again, we’re likely already there or past that now. Can it continue?

The Fed rate is at .25%:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

… And will be for at least another 3 months meaning we’ll see inflation well above 5% (CPI is 6.8% now) or more during this time frame (more than 10% at present if you go back to 30+ year metrics that factor in asset inflation). CPI Inflation now at 6.8%, with Fed rates at zero for at least 3 more months, who would have imagined right? The job market is also tight as a drum. Translated, what does this mean?

It means everything we’ve been told from the Fed over the last how many decades “we’ll raise rates if we see inflation above 2… 2.5%” or “we’ll raise rates with a robust job market (now at a 50 year low)”, is meaningless. None of it was true as what was said and what is now done are apples and cucumbers translated in Chinese. It’s rubbish. So, huge credibility issue now with the Fed.

Two reasons why the Fed won’t raise rates even though inflation has taken off. Firstly, they don’t want to crash a market that is flirting with near 40x P/E ratios. Some might argue this isn’t true, but I think the argument holds weight. It’s still all about the strength of the dollar and once again I bring up this chart:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

The other reason is the rising U.S. dollar against the Euro as well as most other currencies:

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR

If the Fed raises rates here, the dollar pushes even higher (it’s already rose 6.5 pennies since June) which is why CB’s raise rates but there’s no need for this with the dollar rising the way it has even when we factor in inflation.

If the dollar was to weaken against the Euro specifically, it becomes inflationary due the U.S. trade imbalance which, as one can see, is coming off record highs. A weakening dollar in theory timed with high inflation would compel CB’s to raise rates aggressively (until the next crisis naturally, I don’t see anything that suggests the Fed will raise rates over 2.5% until say, a full blown U.S. currency disruption):

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade

Factor in the possibility of war with Russia/Ukraine and we see the dollar strengthening further against the Euro further strengthening the Fed’s case for zero rates but this is in theory, a short term effect lasting I believe, 6 to 8 months at most.

I can see where the Fed is coming from to not raise rates even with inflation this high, but they’ve painted themselves into an ugly corner. With rates at zero, asset bubbles continue to dangerously inflate. There’s no wriggle room with rates at zero for any short term shocks, the stock markets are in an obvious bubble and commodities in bubble territory are holding on the strength of short term supply and decent demand but China can change that some time next year.

This next quarter, maybe 2 can potentially be good for the markets but beyond that, the dollar won’t rise forever and when the trend reverses, watch CB’s react more aggressively, possibly even a .5% raise as soon as July unless, of course, the stock market deflates by then taming inflation or the dollar’s rise continues.

If P/E’s get to the mid 40’s, this market will look for any reason to crash all on its own since the market doesn’t know where to go now as valuations defy logic already; but time it with a weakening dollar further driving inflation with a potential surprise .5% rate hike to stop it’s descent and a crash is more certain as any selloff during nosebleed valuations would likely accelerate.

If we give it another 6 months of dove behavior from the Fed, more continued asset inflation, a further inflated stock market bubble and a dollar weakening at some point over the summer forcing the Fed to be more aggressive, we should see our edge of the cliff then. At least, hypothetically speaking. The market, as always, seems to march to the beat of it’s own drum.

#128 Faron on 12.17.21 at 1:54 pm

#121 Sail Away on 12.17.21 at 12:24 pm

Huh, I thought blaming others for what you don’t like in the world was restricted to the woke. And here you (or your WSJ opining hero [hero because he reaffirms your beliefs]) are.

Oh, and opinion’s are not reporting. My opinion is that the human behind the moniker Sail Away is an arse, but that doesn’t make it any more or less true although the facts do seem to be overwhelming at this point.

#129 Love_The_Cottage on 12.17.21 at 1:54 pm

#35 Toronto_CA on 12.16.21 at 6:03 pm
Are we still thinking that working from home and hybrid working is a passing fad?
Or have we accepted that a lot of these office towers are going to need to be repurposed?
20 months in and counting.
__________
Last month I was asked to put a return to the office plan together for myself and my team of three. I replied that my team worked frequently with offshore teams in different time zones and working remotely had dramatically improved our productivity as we’re now available earlier in the morning due to the elimination of the commute. I added that I was not going to the office under any circumstance. My plan was approved.

It won’t be the case for everyone, but as this drags on past 2 years it will be tougher and tougher to get people to go back.

Interesting that corporate profits are at record highs while many work remotely.

#130 Shawn Allen on 12.17.21 at 1:59 pm

What’s wrong with Haiti?

It’s poor government. Poor leadership.

As much as many people love to bash government it is absolutely crucial to a well functioning society and economy.

Whatever problems Canada has they are most assuredly first world problems.

The private sector cannot do much without the rules that government sets. A zero tax world would not be a nice place.

#131 Observer on 12.17.21 at 1:59 pm

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 1:04 pm
@#111 Observer
“Vaccines are only possible for infectious disease. For example there is no vaccine for diabetes as it is not caused by a virus, bacteria or other pathogen.”

+++

Exactly.
Just like drug addiction.
Thank you for making my point.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You had no point. That was my point.

#132 Observer on 12.17.21 at 2:07 pm

#124 Comrade on 12.17.21 at 1:35 pm
#110 Observer on 12.17.21 at 11:02 am

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 8:14 am
Omicron.
Massive infection rate.
And no rise in hospitalizations or deaths.
Omi-yawn.

Haiku over.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hospitalizations and deaths lag initial infection by 2-3 weeks thus true impact on our ICU’s has not been felt yet. And because Omicron spreads so rapidly, even though possibly less severe, in absolute numbers terms, we may soon see hospitals overwhelmed again
—-

It’s been 4 weeks since detected in South Africa no spike in hospitalizations, probably longer than we think here. I think we would have early indications if it was more dangerous by now. the contrary is true. So fingers crossed, this might be the first good news in two years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

It has only been three weeks since Omicron arrived in Canada and numbers are just starting to ramp up and will continue exponentially at fastest rate of any variant yet.

From what I have read, South Africa is not really a good comparison to Canada because the average age there is 27 versus 41 in Canada and 90% of their population has already been exposed to earlier COVID variants.
Time will tell, but based on current case counts and rate of transmission, ICU’s may soon be overwhelmed:
“Even if Omicron causes less severe illness than previous variants — a suggestion that remains uncertain and controversial — the sheer number of cases will inevitably put major strain on the health-care system, the table[Ontario’s COVID science table] ”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-dec-17-2021-omicron-cases-1.6289571

#133 Sail Away on 12.17.21 at 2:11 pm

#118 Faron on 12.17.21 at 12:02 pm

I refer to price here because that’s obviously the only thing important to you (SA, Crowdie, we already know your net worth is measured in bullion, bullets, bunkers and beans).

——-

Um, yes. Net worth is literally measured in tangibles, although I’m not sure how indoctrinated lefties measure it, although suspect it may be in assaults on journalists and old women… or burnt churches.

#134 Linda on 12.17.21 at 2:30 pm

#53 ‘There’ – agree that there is already taxation, but just to clarify property taxes. Those are assessed fees for services – water, sewer, sanitary sewer, roads, sidewalks, fire, police, garbage pickup etc. Not actually a tax upon the property itself, though the amount of the fees to be paid are based on the assessed value of said property. That having been said, I agree that RE owners haven’t ‘won the lottery’ the way many think. Of course those folks who think that are not considering the annual property tax, utilities, maintenance & of course the amount paid in interest over the course of the mortgage in addition to the original purchase price. That would in most cases rapidly reduce the so called windfall if or when the property is sold – & let us not forget land transfer taxes, legal fees, realtor fees, moving expenses etc. that accrue as a result of the sale. Call it recency bias in action – oh, you sold your property for X but purchased it for Y & made out like a bandit. Made money? Maybe – but would be interesting to see what the ‘profit’ was once all those costs were deducted from the total. Don’t forget utility costs or home insurance when totting up the true expenses vs. profit calculation.

#135 Omi Cron on 12.17.21 at 2:30 pm

Turbulence ahead. Buckle up. It’s going to be rough.

#136 Wrk.dover on 12.17.21 at 2:43 pm

#119 IHCTD9 on 12.17.21 at 12:10 pm
____________________________________

There’s where the cheapest MIG on the floor shines!

I used that technique to drop the born in 1949 date where it said born 1953, on the paper drivers license that I reported lost, so I could gets me a drink on the way home from my high school part time job.

The removable information sheet on the license provided the donor numbers and when wrapped in clear wide tape, then shoved in the window in the wallet, the twenty cent draught flowed my way, pre-road side breathalizers.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.21 at 2:53 pm

@#118 Faron’s Idiot

“(SA, Crowdie, we already know your net worth is measured in bullion, bullets, bunkers and beans).”

+++

You forgot bumwad…

#138 Not Fooled on 12.17.21 at 3:02 pm

#118 Faron on 12.17.21 at 12:02 pm
#77 Sail Away on 12.16.21 at 10:56 pm
#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.16.21 at 9:19 pm

Tell me you don’t understand harm reduction without telling me “I don’t understand harm reduction”.

Obviously not the cure for the problem (someone needs to grow a spine and do what it takes to cut fentanyl/precursor imports). And while the Sackler debacle was/is disgusting, it’s kind of a red herring w/re the opiod crisis.

Back to administering opiates in hospitals. A couple cents per dose of an opiate (non black market rate) + cost of the nurse to administer or tens to hundreds of thousands for EMS and hospital care for continual overdoses. A point of contact with addicts or just let ’em rot until they show on the medical radar with massive, expensive, needs.

I refer to price here because that’s obviously the only thing important to you — the value in actually helping humans in need at any cost is beyond your self-centered ken. Disgusting from someone who tries his damnedest to tell us what his net worth is (SA, Crowdie, we already know your net worth is measured in bullion, bullets, bunkers and beans).

Idiots

*********
“Harm reduction” was one pillar of the made in Canada, 4 Pillars approach to the drug problem. As was predicted at the outset, Treatment, Enforcement, and Community Safety, the other 3 pillars, have been quietly dropped. Prescription opiates were never part of harm reduction as it was envisioned.

Harm reduction referred specifically to providing clean needles to reduce HIV infections which were rampant and becoming drug resistant due to the inability of drug addicts to follow antiviral regimens, and safe use sites to prevent ODs. Problem is, only open drug users take advantage of these amenities.

Recreational drug users will never benefit from harm reduction strategies, because those are for “addicts”. Are we going to provide clean ecstasy, cocaine, and methamphetamine to recreational users, because fentanyl is in these substances, as well?

Definition creep and the reification of the ‘lived experience’ of drug addicts over empiric proofs has led to the current state of affairs. Dropping the other 3 pillars has led to the entirely predictable OD ‘crisis’; rising numbers of ODs are not the result of failing to give addicts what they want.

If mandated addiction treatment doesn’t work, why do we force it on working people, but not the unemployed? That’s the kind of discrimination that actually kills people. Enforced treatment is the only sane response. Letting addicts set the ground rules has led us to where we are. Time for the grown ups who pay the bills to take the lead.

#139 Stone on 12.17.21 at 3:10 pm

#91 Schoolie on 12.17.21 at 6:11 am
“Households can take advantage of increased savings.”
Savings? With an average household debt to income level north of 170%?…..
Surely you jest.

———

Sure. Just lose the debt.

It’s not that complicated.

#140 zxcvbnm on 12.17.21 at 3:19 pm

Dear Faron,
Please go back to reddit.
Sincerely,
Zxcvbnm

#141 The joy of steerage on 12.17.21 at 3:21 pm

Now this is one smart dog…. sure beats the T2 gov folks …

https://twitter.com/buitengebieden_/status/1471607067093970953?t=-VTUetpQdD4w8h1GNkJ81g&s=19

#142 Sail Away on 12.17.21 at 3:39 pm

#126 Faron on 12.17.21 at 1:54 pm

Oh, and opinion’s are not reporting.

——–

‘opinions’

No apostrophe.

#143 Quintilian on 12.17.21 at 3:56 pm

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz
“Oh wise sage.”

Accolades not required.

I consider it a duty to teach economics to those stuck in the 19th century.
Raising rates is an option Central Bankers no longer have.

If they had the option, they would have exercised it in the last decade.

Just think CEF, if the rate is to have any significant impact, it would have to be set to neutral at the very least.

Can you imagine a bank rate of even 1% above inflation?

In Canada it would have to be around 6% in the States around 8%.

It would actually be counterproductive, as an inflation fighter, as interest charges are inputs to cost and therefore higher prices would follow, along with a slowing economy. That would be stagflation.

#144 BillyBob on 12.17.21 at 4:30 pm

Meh. While the Chicken Little Canadians panic, Czech Republic’s new coalition government is ending the Covid state of emergency as of December 25. Could be something to do with infection numbers being 57% of peak and dropping. Either Omicron hasn’t hit yet or this thing is burning out. Either way the general public really doesn’t seem to care anymore.

Meanwhile mortgage rates keep rising as banks take their cue from the central rate. It’s refreshing to see some responsible fiscal action. Debt-free is the only way to be.

But the highlight of the day was the overflight of a formation of Czech Air Force Gripens on a training flight, flying a “Christmas tree” formation right over Prague. Rattled the windows of the apartment pretty good. Looked amazing and sounded even better.

When are the world’s militaries slated to go battery-powered, any timeline on that?

#145 Drinking on 12.17.21 at 5:21 pm

At least you did not post another Christina pic today and yes it is time for that Scotch!

Have to say that I am looking forward to rate hikes only to get this absurdity to some reasonable level. Not only do I feel for the young and old but all of us just paying the bills, it is absolutely absurd out there.

I was in Safeway today to pick up a few items. I noticed for one lousy can of so called (au naturel canned) soup they wanted $4.99; what the hell is wrong with this country??

It’s cold, going to get even colder for the rest of the winter, paying a carbon tax and paying g.s.t. on top of that. Not sure about the other Provinces so I am asking the rest of you; are you also paying P.S.T. on top of all this????

#146 mattbg on 12.18.21 at 9:57 am

How is there so much “growth” with supply chains constrained and activity restricted due to COVID? Is it all just revenue growth due to price inflation?

#147 David Greene on 12.19.21 at 12:00 pm

Careful, Garth. That’s starting to come across as pretty snobbish. Hubert Financial is a division of Sunova, a registered credit union in the province of Manitoba. Deposits are guaranteed by the Deposit Guarantee Corporation of Manitoba

https://dgcm.ca/

And the published books of the organization, according to a few very experienced financial experts with whom I’ve spoken, are very healthy.

Maybe examine something first before writing it off because of its name.

==================================

#75 Jake on 12.16.21 at 10:27 pm

Darren, I wish I had Say $5,000,000 in a 5 year 3% Hubert Financial GIC. Going by the numbers here 15.927% over 5 years is $796,350 in compound interest. I would even take half of that.

And you would still have less purchasing power than when you started. BTW, “Hubert Financial”? Seriously? – Garth

I am well aware of Sunova and Hubert and the fact this small outfit is in merger talks with other CUs. I reviewed its balance sheet before the previous comment was written. Be careful where you dump money for the illusory benefit of still collecting less interest than the inflation rate. – Garth