Through the ceiling

Big week. Monday we heard all about inflation. Tuesday it’s all about Chrystia. Days after, the latest on interest rates.

The day before she delivers the first economic update of the renewed Liberal mandate, the finance ministress sat with the Bank of Canada chief wizard and unveiled the central bank’s mandate for the next five years. As we reported last week, it was a nothingburger. The inflation target will remain at 2%. No change.

“The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain low, stable inflation over time,” they said.

But wait. Inflation is not low. It ain’t stable. This is the worst bout of rising prices we’ve experienced since Abba was nauseating us. The first time. Money is now depreciating at the rate of almost 5% a year. Except if you need to eat or find accommodation. Or drive. Then it’s seriously higher.

What does it mean that the 2% ceiling was maintained? Simple, it foretells rising interest rates, since this is the only blunt and effective instrument central bankers have to temper expectation, quell borrowing, turn down the temperature and stop people from being financial morons. Without this brake of monetary policy being applied then a wage-price spiral is likely, now that the supply chain has delivered shortages and Covid has created demand.

As prices jump 4.7% (the official rate – but the street rate is far higher), savings are destroyed. This will be exacerbated when Freeland delivers her budget, widely expected to jump taxes. Meanwhile, despite the fact the value of money is being eroded daily, Ottawa is punishing the prudent by bringing in a fat zero increase in the 2022 TFSA limit. Once again it’s six thousand, and once again T2 has proven his politically-inspired disdain for this effective, popular and ultimately Conservative tax shelter. Pity.

So what about rates?

“Today’s announcement doesn’t change our forecast for the BoC to begin raising interest rates in April with three hikes in 2022,” say the economists at RBC. “With the unemployment rate back down to 6%, the employment rate close to pre-pandemic levels, and wage growth starting to pick up, we think recent data point to limited labour market slack…. we think these data could actually inspire a more hawkish BoC in January, as long as COVID developments aren’t seen pushing the economic recovery off track.”

Three ups in ’22 would add at least three-quarters of a point to rates, moving the bank prime to 3.2%, taking LOCs, variable-rate mortgages, demand loans and home equity lines along with it. That’s for starters. The next year will bring more.

Economists at Scotia are more hawkish themselves. “Our forecast is still for 100bps of hikes in 2022 and then another 100bps in 2023,” they say. So a prime of 3.45% by next Christmas and 4.45% at Yule of 2023. The central bank rate itself would have increased from 0.25% to 2.25%. Do the math. Almost a ten-fold increase. If you borrowed a mortgage at 1.99% or less in 2020 you will be renewing somewhere around 4%. Some, like Bill Robson of the Howe Institute, say more. Much more. “You will be shocked,” he adds.

Meanwhile, what does Ottawa have planned on the borrowing front?

Word is seeping out Disney-on-the-Rideau that an effective way to deal with the housing “crisis” is to nip speculators, investors, amateur landlords plus mom & pop syndicates by gelding HELOCs. They are just too sweet, cheap and easy. People can suck 65% of the equity from existing homes at the prime rate (2.45%) and make non-amortized, interest-only payments which are 100% deductible from taxable income when used as a downpayment on a secondary rental property. So, why wouldn’t you in an inflationary world where real estate has jumped 20-30% annually during a global health emergency?

Well, the little birdies chirp, kiss that goodbye. HELOC money will have to be amortized. No interest-only bonanza. No principal amounts that are never paid off. And there’s even Department of Finance debate about rescinding the deductibility of interest on residential real estate loans. Just like the meanies did in NZ.

Will these changes take place, or is it wildish spec talk?

We have no idea. But you can see the logic of attacking investment property financing when 25% of all buyers are already owners. And especially when T2 is about to unveil the FHSA and other goodies to empower newbie buyers and spike demand. We shall see.

Meanwhile this week there’s no longer debate about what comes next from our central bankers.

What an interesting year 2022 will be, after the last couple of yawners.

About the picture: “Been a long time follower (dozen or so years, give or take),” writes Mark. “Attached is a picture of Jax the Bengal who joined me on my expat adventure, working in Asia, 2.5 years ago. When first approached about the opportunity of working here, I said there was one condition – the furball had to be able to come.”

114 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 12.13.21 at 7:51 am

That fateful cold winter week in March 2020 when the Old System was shut down no time was wasted in tearing up every other downtown intersection in my city – to install the fibre for the 5G system. I saw the trucks, contractors. That’s what you do during a ‘deadly pandemic’ right?

Because: A.I. is running the show.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/skorea-test-ai-powered-facial-recognition-track-covid-19-cases-2021-12-13/
“S.Korea to test AI-powered facial recognition to track COVID-19 cases
The system uses an AI algorithms and facial recognition technology to analyse footage gathered by more than 10,820 CCTV cameras and track an infected person’s movements, anyone they had close contact with, and whether they were wearing a mask”



Electric Cars: Control over Travel/Movement, check. Who can afford these things and where to charge them all – at once?

https://torontosun.com/news/national/mandatory-ev-sales-quotas-needed-by-end-of-next-year-guilbeault?r
“Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault says he wants a national mandate that would force auto dealers to sell a certain number of electric vehicles to be in place by the end of next year.”



– The Science just changed, in Kanada.

https://www.ledevoir.com/societe/sante/651882/pas-de-3-sup-e-sup-dose-pour-les-aines-ayant-eu-la-covid-19
“Notice to 70 years and older: If you have suffered from COVID-19, a third dose of vaccine is no longer recommended. The Comité sur l’immunisation du Québec (CIQ) has changed its tune after seniors in CHSLDs who had already contracted the disease suffered significant side effects during the booster dose.
The Dre Zhang and doctors practicing in the CHSLDs she manages observed “a lot of a lot of side effects” in seniors who had had COVID-19 and had already received two doses, unlike those who had not contracted the disease.

#2 Defeat on all frontenacs on 12.13.21 at 4:09 pm

Trudea.u is an idio.t. a big one

So are the members of his cabinet..

#3 Billy Buoy on 12.13.21 at 4:17 pm

Raise those rates and crash those markets!

#4 Devil Anse on 12.13.21 at 4:18 pm

“As prices jump 4.7% (the official rate – but the street rate is far higher), savings are destroyed” ….

——————————–

Why do central banks use an index that nobody believes in? Why?

#5 AM in MN on 12.13.21 at 4:21 pm

These losers are so far behind the curve….

Wait until the big public sector strikes start, where’s all that extra money going to come from?

The issue is simple, either the government borrows in the open market, pushing up interest rates, or it “borrows” from printed money created by the central bank.

There isn’t enough of a productive economy to provide the taxes they need for all of the spending, not a complicated calculation. They need to start outright confiscating wealth, which is what money printing and inflation does, but not evenly or in a controlled way.

As I’ve said here before, at some pain point the white liberals who are destroying the next generation’s inheritance will buckle and allow the wealth creating industrial economy to grow. Can’t happen soon enough for me.

#6 Dave on 12.13.21 at 4:22 pm

Jax is a cute ball of fur….oh and
FURRRRSSST!

#7 RS on 12.13.21 at 4:26 pm

Hi Garth,

Thank you very much for your crusade ( there is some strong passion for sure) of educating the financially illiterate (includes semi pseudo Reddit Google graduates, heard from my BIL type finance gurus) masses of this La la land.

People seem to forget not all is well in La la land (hence the name La la land) which is sitting on debt which it cant afford and there is no Uncle Sam for us who will bail us out,even though he is our dear neighbour.

I got a request for you, can you do an article on what do you see coming in next 5, next 10 and next 15 years from now in terms of financial challenges for dreamy eyed residents of La la land.

I would appreciate you sharing your thoughts on it.

Thank you and much respect

#8 Trudeau’s Magic Money Machine on 12.13.21 at 4:28 pm

I’m response to yesterday’s post about short term bonds for the fixed income portion the portfolio, I would like some opinions on CSD.TO please. It is an Ishares product comprised of short term corporate bonds.

Thank you all so much in advance.

#9 James on 12.13.21 at 4:28 pm

We are pooched!
Dam cats.

#10 Kirk on 12.13.21 at 4:28 pm

But mortgage rockstar, Rob McLister, says the market is pricing in less (one less) hikes in 2022 than before today’s PDA between the government and The Tiffer.

Maybe by the end of the week it will be two less hikes.

#11 Dolce Vita on 12.13.21 at 4:34 pm

Basically Garth, you’ve given up hope for the Liberal Clown Car & the CB vis-à-vis inflation et. al., got all anecdotal and concluded that the last 2 years have been a giant SH!T SHOW.

Could not agree with you more.

Yet again, no truer words.

Cheer up Garth, it can only get better.

THEN AGAIN, maybe not. fresh from the Twitter HIVE:

Ryan Imgrund
@imgrund
·
1h
The Omicron variant in Ontario appears to have an R value of 1.99, which means a doubling period of 3 days.

This means Omicron will become Ontario’s dominant variant on Saturday, December 18th.

————————–

– WINTER OF DISCONTENT

[extends in 2022 Garth, sorry My Liege I wish it weren’t so]

#12 Do we have all the facts on 12.13.21 at 4:38 pm

Will the Government of Canada introduce initiatives to stimulate investment in the Canadian economy in 2022.
Picking the low hanging fruit such as tax increases or placing controls on speculation will not result in the revenue increases necessary to cover increases in proposed spending or increased debt service costs.

Canada has to find ways to nudge GDP above 3.0% per annum on a sustained basis or debt will continue to spiral out of sight.

As a country we have no shortage of cash to invest in our future. All we lack is the will and the support of our governments.

#13 Outrage on 12.13.21 at 4:47 pm

May be 1 or 2 rate increases for a total of 0.5 % . Big deal and that’s it.
The real inflation rate is 5 -10% . Canadians will suffer but the C B knows best. The C B has no credibility and what’s even worse is Canuckleheads believe them. No one cares anymore. I sure don’t, I live cheap in Mexico..
Like I said before ,T2 will destroy Canada.

#14 Mean Gene on 12.13.21 at 4:48 pm

There is going to be a lot of pissing and whining if they mess with the HELOC status quo… let the games begin. Lol.

#15 Doug t on 12.13.21 at 4:49 pm

2022 the year of living dangerously
2023 the year of devastation

#16 Dolce Vita on 12.13.21 at 4:54 pm

Well, Busted Flat in Baton Rouge…My Heart be Still.

Canada rediscovers viral sequencing:

https://i.imgur.com/GyR7JIg.png

And, do I note the slightest of upticks in testing?

https://i.imgur.com/IROGarC.png

Yes I do.

GO CANADA GO!

Don’t let the “O” word get away from you. The more you know, the better prepared you will be.

All the BEST Canada.

As for Europa QUELLE MESS. Italia up to 196 Cases/100K from 187 a day ago.

Everyone else in Europa WAY WORSE except for ‘lyin sacks of dung Sweden (save face) and Spain (save tourism €). The testing champs of Europe:

https://i.imgur.com/IROGarC.png

#17 Felix on 12.13.21 at 4:55 pm

Yes!

#18 Shawn Allen on 12.13.21 at 4:55 pm

#124 Do we have all the facts on 12.13.21 at 3:17 pm
#114 Shaun Allen

Fractional banking says it all.

**********************************
Well, why don’t you say it for those of us who are thick.

Maybe point out areas where there is banking that is NOT fractional banking.

Can you imagine the borrowing rate if a bank was lending out its own money versus depositor money? To make a 15% ROE they need to charge about 20% interest.

Do you have a problem with fractional reserve banking? What is that problem? Is it that you really don’t understand it?

#19 Joe on 12.13.21 at 4:56 pm

We’re entering a period of deflation that is why central banks kept 2% ceiling. They know they can start to increase but will stop immediately as deflation will take hold or a crash will occur. Rates cannot go up as the world is $22T in debt. I repeat RATES CANNOT AND WILL NOT GO UP.

#20 YVRTechGuy on 12.13.21 at 4:57 pm

Interest-only loans, rampant speculation, 8+ rate hikes … looking more and more like the US 15 years ago.

#21 Dave on 12.13.21 at 5:02 pm

The value of money is only being eroded daily if you are in cash, GICs, or bonds–not if you are in equities, as businesses pass cost increases to customers. That’s why people should avoid bonds!

#22 Faron on 12.13.21 at 5:03 pm

#84 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.12.21 at 11:08 pm

Sorry, I’m going to take published research over a bunch of wiki links cherry-picked by a yahoo on the internet. For on:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/102/2/BAMS-D-20-0004.1.xml

From the abstract:

“…increasingly favorable conditions for tornadoes are observed during winter across the Southeast…”

Significant trend in low level moisture is massive (pause for one sec and consider how water gets into the gaseous state and if near surface temperature is important for that…), positive trends in CAPE, STP and non significant positive trend in helicity. 0-6 shear and CI show weak trends in opposition. This is exactly across the region where Friday’s outbreak occurred.

This is in meteo-winter (DJF). Sorry, by the time March (or even late Feb) rolls around, the sun has been cranking in the northern tropics for the better part of 3 months. March is spring.

This does not mean it is due to anthro warming (although anthro warming is the dominant driver of trend in most areas), but there is change and it bull’s eyes right onto the region in question. These are the “ingredients” that I spoke of in yesterdays essay. Re-running the trends after this winter’s outbreak will make the results even stronger.

#23 Heregoesnothing on 12.13.21 at 5:04 pm

While the cute dog pictures are a big reason why I keep coming back to this site, I gotta admit that I’m actually more of a cat person. So I’ve really enjoyed the recent influx of kitty pics! Thank you, Garth!

#24 the jaguar on 12.13.21 at 5:09 pm

Jax the Bengal is fantastic! He surveys the landscape like a Jaguar. Living ‘La Vida Loca’ with his loving and devoted guardian.

#25 Drill Baby Drill on 12.13.21 at 5:10 pm

Enough of the felines already. I am getting cat scratch fever.

#26 Dolce Vita on 12.13.21 at 5:12 pm

* Error link fixed. The testing champs of Europe, ‘lyin Sweden and Spain:

https://i.imgur.com/ZefmDcR.png

Never catch me again visiting those 2 countries.

Carpetbaggers.

#27 Faron on 12.13.21 at 5:13 pm

Garth is just softening everyone up for the big reveal that he and Dorothy are now proud parents of a hairless cat named Sprinklekins.

Sprinklekins eats an organic, chakra cleansing diet of free-range, ethically raised mice with just a touch of pink Himalayan sea salt for energy flow and all-around good vibes.

Sprinklekins rides in a baby bjorn or, when under zhe’s own power, is tethered by a rhinestone encrusted hemp leash.

Sprinklekins has the unique distinction of being both an emotional support mammal and a spirit animal!

Sprinklekins is currently wearing an elf-hat befitting the season.

I shall see myself out now.

#28 the jaguar on 12.13.21 at 5:15 pm

P.S…did something happen with the markets today?
I was busy studying the Russians at the beach. Such cute little boxer style swimsuits. Sigh.

#29 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 12.13.21 at 5:26 pm

If we really want to help the average working person save for retirement then RRSP’s should be phased out and replaced entirely by an increased TFSA ,maybe with the same restrictions on taking money out before retirement ( say age 55).
It is sad that the Liberal crowd either doesn’t comprehend that a TFSA helps more the average person than an RRSP or they choose to ignore it.
The RRSP really only helps those with above average earnings who have enough money left to use it as a tax shelter. The net result is really take from the poor and give to the rich.
Ofcourse I don’t think a Canadian government of any sorts would have the courage to merge the 2 ,though thye might have to when they won’t be able to meet payment obligations in the near future.

#30 Yukon Elvis on 12.13.21 at 5:29 pm

#4 AM in MN on 12.13.21 at 4:21 pm
These losers are so far behind the curve….

Wait until the big public sector strikes start, where’s all that extra money going to come from?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I remember the high inflation / wage and price controls T1 imposed on us in the 70’s. There were major strikes everywhere every other week. Interest rates went thru the roof. But what the hell, 65% of us voted for the Libdip Coalition so we will get what we deserve.

#31 Decent Majority on 12.13.21 at 5:31 pm

I am not yawning. They are at it again. Patty and Mark just dropped 40 Billion today. Krystia, Tyrant Trudeau, do something. I can’t talk right now. Does Parliament have to approve 40 Billon? Or does it just go in with all the other billions that have not been accounted for? What will tomorrow bring? Another 200 BILLION? Somebody help me. I’m sinking.

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 5:37 pm

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 3:08 pm
@#90 yvr Lurker

“Was explaining to my 17 year old tonight (who is applying to engineering schools) about how the civil engineering field may have lots of jobs going forward with redesigning infrastructure to help mitigate the effects of these extreme events.”

+++

About 25 years ago I worked at an office building that had a large engineering firm.
One of the younger engineers ( late 20’s) was packing his personal stuff in boxes out to his car one day.
I asked if he was laid off.
“Nope, going back to University in Norway to upgrade my degree to Environmental engineering”.

All the other old time civil engineers though he was nuts.
Came back two years later with his new degree.
Same company, almost twice the salary.
Way ahead of the curve.
————
Agree.
My daughter’s boy friend is 3 years into his degree at the UBC’s Urban Foresty program.
Recruiters are already knocking on his door.
As for trades, this is a huge opportunity for those who wanna upgrade their skills.
Building to Code won’t do it anymore.
You’re gonna have to build a fortress.

#33 Garth's Son Drake on 12.13.21 at 5:41 pm

What comes after the year 2022?

That’s right. The predicted 2023 housing crash, targeted back in 2018.

And if those rate hikes materialize – yikes!

Imagine a Canada, where rates are at back at 2008 levels, yet the house cost 3x what it did in 2008.

At some point the general consumer consensus will be, no thanks, I’m full.

Don’t fight the cycle.

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 5:42 pm

#120 Diamonds are forever, forever.

Farmers will also have a shortage of Glyphosate next year (big drop in Chinese exports). The usage of Glyphosate on cultivated acres across North America is extensive, guessing here but it’s likely around 85% or higher as a pre-burn before planting. Farmers in western Canada that didn’t buy early, have no guarantees of access to Glyphosate for weed control next year.
———————-
Thanks for the warning.
Did not know about Glyphosate. learn something new every day on this pathetic blog.
Will do some more research on what more crap is in our produce.
I’m lucky, I get my organic rutabagas straight from Austria.
Also, will increase my backyard garden next spring.
And will do the weed control by hand. Good form my body strength, too.
Be prepared, Grasshoppers.
Always be ahead of the herd.

#35 Printer is Coming on 12.13.21 at 5:44 pm

What’s in a title?

#36 AntMan on 12.13.21 at 5:47 pm

Interest rates going up? I’d dearly like it to be true but I’ll believe it when I see it. Central bank policy has been punishing savers for over a decade. I doubt any central bankers are losing sleep about it at this point. As far as I can tell most central bankers would rather eat glass than raise rates. The ECB, Fed, BoE and BoC have all soft pedaled rate raises and made it pretty clear they find the whole idea rather akin to a root canal, necessary (maybe?) but they’d really rather not.
At the end of the day central banks are just people and like most people, when given a choice between doing the right thing and the easy thing, they’ll choose the easy thing. Until there are no more easy things.

#37 rolldaddy of surrey on 12.13.21 at 5:53 pm

For Those of you looking for predictions of future economic conditions, I suggest that you look into the “Cloward Piven” strategy. Things will become very clear to you when you understand the blueprint. Enjoy the decline!

#38 Chameleon on 12.13.21 at 5:56 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTunhRVyREU

That’s really irritating. – Garth

#39 Palpha on 12.13.21 at 6:01 pm

https://youtu.be/ZbiOAqZaKDQ
Watch the tooth fairy and Trudeaus money machine.

#40 Cici on 12.13.21 at 6:02 pm

I love your hope, strength and optimism Garth. And I really hope you are right.

But I’m not holding my breath. Besides, what about that nifty “full employment target” they’ve added into the equation? What exactly is “full employment” (is there a magic number) and how close are we to actually achieving it? Has it ever been achieved before?

Lots of wiggle room to wiggle, wiggle, wiggle in Kanukistan… or should I say Canajapan?

#41 Chameleon on 12.13.21 at 6:02 pm

#16 Felix

Yes!

—–

Imagine Dorthy is a cat person, and she says to Garth “Garth, let’s get a cat this time” and they get a cat and Garth become a cat person. There in his favourite recliner, sipping bourbon, petting his new kitten, maybe smoking a pipe, looking that the ocean view outside. No beastly thing demanding he take it for a walk and pick up warm steaming mushy poo.

Could he handle the cat life?

Could we handle a cat Garth?

Maybe that’s what’s happening here? Garth is transitioning from dog person to cat person?

#42 Dogman01 on 12.13.21 at 6:06 pm

“a wage – price spiral”

We have the price rise, but what about the wage rise?
They will spike interest, open up the immigration gates before that happens, the Canadian “market” economy is not for workers it is for the owners.

The only way to win is be rich!, “own the banks – don’t owe them!”

Speaking of Cats …https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaA_cs4WZHM

#43 D.D. Corkum on 12.13.21 at 6:10 pm

#3 Devil Anse on 12.13.21 at 4:18 pm

“Why do central banks use an index that nobody believes in?”

—-

Even if an index were flawed, to suddenly change the methodology would invite even greater mistrust.

#44 Cici on 12.13.21 at 6:20 pm

Oops, sorry… silly me, I think they actually referred to “maximum employment”.

All the same, is there a dual mandate or isn’t there?

There is not. – Garth

#45 Catapult on 12.13.21 at 6:22 pm

When I heard there was a cat picture on today’s blog and the title was “Through the ceiling” I got all excited!

Alas … excited for nothing. A guy can hope though, can’t he?

#46 SmallTownSteve on 12.13.21 at 6:27 pm

How could we possibly dig ourself out of this mess of spending? Could not possibly be by building more pipelines to the east and or west coast could it? I mean it’s not like we have the third largest proven oil reserves in the entire world or anything.

#47 Yukon Elvis on 12.13.21 at 6:43 pm

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 5:42 pm

I’m lucky, I get my organic rutabagas straight from Austria.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you store them in a warm dark place ?

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 6:50 pm

@#29 Faron’s fantasy
“Garth is just softening everyone up for the big reveal that he and Dorothy are now proud parents of a hairless cat named Sprinklekins.”

+++

Putting mushrooms from the backyard on your salad again?

#49 Editrix on 12.13.21 at 6:51 pm

So once interest rates are over, say, 7%, then are GICs a worthwhile investment?

#50 Michael in-north-york on 12.13.21 at 6:51 pm

#39 Palpha on 12.13.21 at 6:01 pm

https://youtu.be/ZbiOAqZaKDQ
Watch the tooth fairy and Trudeaus money machine.
===

Poilievre is amazing when he speaks :)

Of course, someone should have answered “we finance this program by increasing the public debt, and we believe that’s the right course of actions because “, instead of mumbling.

That could lead to a meaningful debate about the benefits and risks of deficit-based financing, but the comical effect would be lost.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 6:52 pm

@#19 Shoeless Joe

“I repeat RATES CANNOT AND WILL NOT GO UP.”

++++

Then you should have no problem maxing your cards, LOC, mortgages, etc etc etc.

#52 Chameleon on 12.13.21 at 6:59 pm

#38 Chameleon on 12.13.21 at 5:56 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTunhRVyREU

That’s really irritating. – Garth

-meow-meow-meow-

You didn’t like the trip back to ads of yesteryear?

Over 7m views on it. Obviously it’s a hit.

If you’re irritated now, wait till you are taking a wiz and you start singing it to yourself. Or it pops into your head in other inappropriate times.

#53 VladTor on 12.13.21 at 7:00 pm

Garth…Will these changes take place, or is it wildish spec talk?

**************
Garth, you probably know answer. Answer is in your question – it wildish spec talk!!!

Gov. doing NOTHING to cool down RE and rent market. 10 years ago, when I start reading RE news and later your blog I was naïve, b’s believed that we have smart gov. and responsible guys in BoC. Now I have opinion that those two institutions fully corrupt and not working for Canadians at least when we talking about Re and rent. But each Canadians or house owner or renter – so when gov. and BoC doing nothing they working against all of us. Worse situation on the Globe and they only bla-bla-bla instead taking actions.

#54 TurnerNation on 12.13.21 at 7:06 pm

The Consp. Theorists did indicate 2025:

https://www.ft.com/content/9ec73785-a714-4a2a-b47c-f024adfea71b
“The UK Health Security Agency, which took over test and trace in October, has signed at least four contracts with consultancies Deloitte and Accenture relating to the delivery of the programme, with the potential to extend until April 2025.
The documents also indicate that travel restrictions could remain, at least intermittently, for several years.”

#55 Grand Imperial Wizard of Canada's Impending Bankruptcy on 12.13.21 at 7:15 pm

Disney-on-the-Rideau. So extremely appropriate but who put Goofy in charge and why?

#56 Dr V on 12.13.21 at 7:15 pm

40 Cici

“What exactly is “full employment” (is there a magic
number)…”

What I remember from Econ 100/101 (long, long ago) was something like a 4% unemployment rate.

So how is 96% employed “full” or “maximum” employment? Well, story goes that there is always some seasonal/industrial unemployment for one. But the less intuitive factor is a strong economy where workers are happy to quit jobs in hopes of finding a better one.

#57 Dr V on 12.13.21 at 7:21 pm

Tax credits. That’s how it will work.

Rather than allowing a full deduction from income for
interest payments, tax credits will be offered, however, they will be at a lower rate. Ditto RRSP contributions.

The mantra will go like this:

“Why should the wealthy/1% earners get a bigger tax break than the middle-class, or those aspiring to join it?”

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 7:22 pm

What’s another $40 BILLION on top of the $1 TRILLION already squandered…

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ottawa-to-include-40b-in-fiscal-update-to-cover-compensation-for-first-nations-kids

Taxes and inflation goin’ uppa uppa uppa til the voters squeal ……

#59 Barb on 12.13.21 at 7:35 pm

“…the finance ministress sat with the Bank of Canada ”

—————————

We suspect Chrystia will be a maxistress.

#60 Victor V on 12.13.21 at 7:39 pm

Ontario to hike foreign homebuyers tax if feds don’t act: Source

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ontario-to-hike-foreign-homebuyers-tax-if-feds-don-t-act-source-1.1695342

The Ontario government will take matters into its own hands by raising its tax on non-resident homebuyers if the federal government doesn’t make good on a campaign promise to clamp down on foreign buying activity, BNN Bloomberg has learned.

“Ontario is prepared to raise the Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST) to 20 per cent and expand its catchment area beyond the Greater Golden Horseshoe,” said a senior Ontario government source, who later added the tax could eventually rise to more than 20 per cent.

“By expanding the catchment area to include the entire province and raising the tax, we will discourage foreign speculation and make sure our limited housing supply is going to those who need it the most.”

The province’s foreign homebuyers tax currently stands at 15 per cent and was implemented on Apr. 21, 2017.

#61 Ronaldo on 12.13.21 at 7:41 pm

#341 Chameleon

Maybe that’s what’s happening here? Garth is transitioning from dog person to cat person?
——————————————————————–
Or maybe the cat identifies as a pooch. We had a cat like that once. Thought she was a dog.

#62 Adam on 12.13.21 at 7:42 pm

But TFSA contributions were supposed to be inflation-indexed to the nearest $500. And the last time I checked the inflation rate….

#63 Idiocy on 12.13.21 at 7:44 pm

ah, get it straight people…

The wheels are already in motion and there is not the competence in leadership nor the political will extant to stop this train.

After a 40 years ( 2 generations) absence of dangerous inflation, most people have no idea of what we will be facing in Canada and elsewhere.

Do you really think that the likes of Justin, Chrystia and Tiff will have the solution ?

Every policy currently in effect will serve to aid and abet the tragic outcome.

From idiotic energy policies, to subsidies, government’s wild overspending and encouragement of indebtedness, suppressed interest rates , taxation, etc., etc. , we are well down the road to the ”crack up boom” that Mises (and Hayek) warned against.

Whether you believe this has been all planned or is just the product of incompetence and economic illiteracy over many years really doesn’t matter – the result will be the same in the end.

Canada, USA, the EU are all screwed and their pampered populations will not have the grit to deal with the fallout.

#64 Idiocy on 12.13.21 at 7:46 pm

I simply refer to it as Project Zimbabwe.
Look it up – its your future after all !

#65 Ed on 12.13.21 at 7:49 pm

So if inflation is running at 5% but my investment account is up 32% then all is good right? (Retired bum wants to know)
Hopefully next year is just as good.

#66 DON on 12.13.21 at 8:10 pm

#61 Ronaldo on 12.13.21 at 7:41 pm
#341 Chameleon

Maybe that’s what’s happening here? Garth is transitioning from dog person to cat person?
——————————————————————–
Or maybe the cat identifies as a pooch. We had a cat like that once. Thought she was a dog

*********
We have a cat raised by a dog, he lays on the floor with his brothers. They all work together to get treats. Relentless tactics.

Bigger problems out there:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/surrey-condo-tower-not-up-to-code-lawsuit-2021-1.6281263

#67 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.13.21 at 8:18 pm

Faron…

Yahoo on the Internet? You realize that the ad hominin responses belie the weakness of your argument. It’s becoming clear why people don’t like you. You’re an Alramist Bully.

Those links are simply historical facts. Significant outbreaks, including cool season outbreaks, have been on the decline since the 60s (and they were very frequent in the 1950’s including one whopper in Canada in May of 1953).

And regarding the paper… Taszarek, et al. state:

“However, whether convection initiates is a substantial limit on estimating thunderstorm occurrence from environments (Rasmussen et al. 2020). Since CIN depends on details in the thermodynamic structure, its accurate calculation requires high resolution in the lowest part of the atmosphere. Because of the limited boundary layer vertical resolution of current climate models and reanalyses, it is uncertain how well those models can assess changes in CIN.”

That means they are uncertain. They are uncertain because convective inhibition (CIN) is exceptionally hard to model, even in the shortest of lead times with the current suite of operational CAMs. You should know that. They are acknowledging that is a HUGE limitation is long range modeling.

They actually state in the concluding remarks…

“These findings suggest that changes to severe thunderstorms are not straightforward, and increases inferred purely on the basis of unstable environments may be offset by the resistance to convection initiating. Therefore, a stronger emphasis should be placed on the convective initiation problem in future analyses of trends and projections”

In other words we don’t know.

And it’s actually Gensini & Brooks, 2018, that started the whole discussion on is “Tornado Alley” moving east. And they conclude:

“At this point, it is unclear whether the observed trends in tornado environment and report frequency are due to natural variability or being altered by anthropogenic forcing on the climate system.”

And: “It is difficult to isolate these natural vs. anthropogenic factors, but perhaps future attribution studies will be able to describe such causal mechanisms.”

#68 Shawn Allen on 12.13.21 at 8:19 pm

Domestic Foreigners

#60 Victor V on 12.13.21 at 7:39 pm
Ontario to hike foreign homebuyers tax if feds don’t act: Source

**************************
Is the Ontario one also applicable to those from other provinces (Domestic Foreigners) as is the case in B.C.?

#69 Prince Polo on 12.13.21 at 8:20 pm

The finger thing means the taxes! Thanks Chrystia and out-of-control Photo-op Minister!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8SYQ1u2m7E

#70 Linda on 12.13.21 at 8:23 pm

What I wonder is why the ‘official’ inflation numbers are so low. Does the government think anyone believes these numbers? One does not have much in the way of math skills to realize that it is costing one heck of a lot more than a few percentage points to pay for goods or services these days. This presuming one can actually secure them in the first place – those supply chain & labor shortages are not just talk. I’d add tax increases are not going to help anyone already having issues with rising costs. Are tax increases factored into any inflation calculations?

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 8:27 pm

#47 Yukon Elvis on 12.13.21 at 6:43 pm
#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 5:42 pm

I’m lucky, I get my organic rutabagas straight from Austria.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you store them in a warm dark place ?
———
No,
Sacrilege.
Austrians store them in an outside storage cellar, with all the other root vegetables and canned fruit.
That’s how I grew up.

#72 VladTor on 12.13.21 at 8:44 pm

#60 Victor V on 12.13.21 at 7:39 pm

….“By expanding the catchment area to include the entire province and raising the tax, we will discourage foreign speculation and make sure our limited housing supply is going to those who need it the most.”

*************

I laughed!

Problem is here – among Canadian residents. What about Canadian residents speculation? What about Canadians (Huge amount Canadians !!! Unbelievable amount Canadians!!!) who is buying second home having only one goal – sell it in the next couple years.

Deathly silence was in response to him!

#73 Albertaguy in AB on 12.13.21 at 8:47 pm

#30 Yukon Elvis on 12.13.21 at 5:29 pm

But what the hell, 65% of us voted for the Libdip Coalition so we will get what we deserve.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2021 Federal Election

Liberal 5,556,629 (32.6% of voter turnout)
NDP 3,036,348 (17.8% of voter turnout)
Total 8,592,977 (31.4% of registered voters)

8,592,977 / 17,034,243 = 50.4% of voter turnout

The 48% of eligible Canadians that did not vote should be ashamed of this result where 1/3 of eligible voters get to dictate to the 66% majority.

Voter Turnout: 17,034,243 of 27,366,297 registered electors (62.25%) — does not include electors who registered on election day.

https://www.elections.ca/enr/help/national_e.htm

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 8:53 pm

@#63 Idiocy

“Whether you believe this has been all planned or is just the product of incompetence and economic illiteracy over many years really doesn’t matter – the result will be the same in the end.

Canada, USA, the EU are all screwed and their pampered populations will not have the grit to deal with the fallout.”

+++

I hate to admit.
The Communist Chinese propaganda is getting better.

#75 mike from mtl on 12.13.21 at 8:54 pm

#29 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 12.13.21 at 5:26 pm

It is sad that the Liberal crowd either doesn’t comprehend that a TFSA helps more the average person than an RRSP or they choose to ignore it.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

This is exactly correct, governments appear stupid but aren’t. Paying zero taxes on investments irregardless of traditional income taxation is a loophole for the working idiots. RSP is a useful tool for those crazy folk who derive their earnings from normal income above say 200k+. Below that you’re complicating your life, just go TFSA & non-reg.

Since the Canadian TFSA total is still below 100k (lunch money) it’s no wonder the Libs hate it. Can’t have easy to nickel and dime people can we?

The real rich don’t have such constraints, but if you need to ‘work’ be smart about it.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 8:54 pm

@#71 Ponzie’s Parental Punishment place
“Austrians store them in an outside storage cellar, with all the other root vegetables and canned fruit.
That’s how I grew up.”

++++

Sleeping on a pile of raw vegetables.
Explains a lot.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 9:12 pm

hmmmm.

Official Covid death stats world wide since Jan 2020 are 5.2 million.

Unofficial “excess death” stats world wide since Covid hit in Jan 2020 are 17.4 million.

I wonder if the real numbers will be part of a Nova PBS expose in about 2 years

#78 Doug in London on 12.13.21 at 9:17 pm

Our last hope is the U.S. Fed is more sensible and bites the bullet, and raises rates more than Chrystia plans to. That will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates closer to where they should be.

#79 Old Active on 12.13.21 at 9:23 pm

Poll suggests 40 per cent of Canadians know unvaccinated people, don’t discuss issue

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-poll-suggests-40-per-cent-of-canadians-know-unvaccinated-people-dont/

Unvaccinated look to be a popular bunch!

Either that, or if there is any correlation of 1:1 in this bunch maybe there are fewer vaccinated people than is being reported.

Considering how data has been treated and in some cases I feel spun, it’s not out of realm or possibility.

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 9:27 pm

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.13.21 at 7:22 pm
What’s another $40 BILLION on top of the $1 TRILLION already squandered…

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ottawa-to-include-40b-in-fiscal-update-to-cover-compensation-for-first-nations-kids

Taxes and inflation goin’ uppa uppa uppa til the voters squeal ……
—————
Is it not too early to get drunk?

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.21 at 9:35 pm

66 DON on 12.13.21 at 8:10 pm
#61 Ronaldo on 12.13.21 at 7:41 pm
#341 Chameleon

Maybe that’s what’s happening here? Garth is transitioning from dog person to cat person?
——————————————————————–
Or maybe the cat identifies as a pooch. We had a cat like that once. Thought she was a dog

*********
We have a cat raised by a dog, he lays on the floor with his brothers. They all work together to get treats. Relentless tactics.

Bigger problems out there:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/surrey-
———————-
Why are you surprised?
This has been going on for ages.
Never, ever touch any Pre-sales.

#82 Satori on 12.13.21 at 9:47 pm

Urgh! Now, I am looking at renting, in Kelowna, and my god rent is like Vancouver…just a room is $1000. WTH?? Homes bought less than 2 years ago and listed for an additional $200,000 plus. (*and thank you Redfin, cause Realtor.ca or Point2homes doesn’t publish last purchase prices!!!).

I have friends who bought a home in Kelowan, with inspections. The other realtor said “well if you don’t want it, another guy is willing to pay $35,000 more than your “accepted offer” so they got it because they didn’t know if the other realtor was lying or telling the truth. ??? This “fear buying” and “blind bidding” has to end. My God, why can’t we NOT learn from other countries???

Its damn true, our government rewards debtors and punishes savers. Now money has 5% less purchasing power with our high inflation…

#70 Linda,

Hopefully no one believes the ‘reported’ inflation numbers, or the TV fluff reported on Global.

#83 Faron on 12.13.21 at 9:49 pm

#67 Repurchase Disagreement on 12.13.21 at 8:18 pm

Faron…

Yahoo on the Internet? You realize that the ad hominin responses belie the weakness of your argument.

Um, or they belie the fact that you are clearly talking out of your depth with faux expertise and thus revealing yourself to be the type-case of a certain flavour of internet yahoo.

Here’s the TL;DR from Gensini himself

https://twitter.com/gensiniwx

Early in his feed he goes on record directly rebutting your take. If you don’t lack bravery, you woud take it up with him — a world expert on tornado climatology. Lessee, published expert or anonymous GF steerage yahoo? I’ma go with the former.

Here’s a joke for you:

The joke: Whaddya call it when the waitperson at a diner serves a side of grits with your breakfast that you didn’t ask for? An add hominy attack. LOL.

Longer version on how you took yourself to the woodshed.:

First, anyone commenting on a personal finance blog qualifies as a “yahoo on the internet”. Me, you, everyone. Hate to break it to you, but pretty much everyone who comments here on the regular is, at minimum, some kind of yahoo. I suggest you embrace your yahooness.

When one of those someones posts a series of historical events as some kind of rebuttal or “proof” that there is no change, that’s sheer quackery. When they express that there was some mysterious thing happening in the 1950s, that doesn’t help at all unless they bring a crud-ton of evidence in support. It’s all the worse when the data on the current event is rapidly stacking up that it was one of the most severe events of all time in numerous ways further making your comparisons kind of silly.

To be clear, by the same token, the current event doesn’t show us anything about climate change unless very careful analysis can reveal that there is an attributable component. I tried to express this need for both caution in attributing and the great uncertainty associated with these kinds of dynamics when I first wrote. I think you missed that part. Probably because you are biased in a belief that climate change isn’t a thing (speculating).

In your case, pointing to events that match your apparent bias is deeply frowned upon by the scientific community. It amounts to “doing your own research” in the COVID and vaccine world — it leads to junk. You have engaged in cherry picking here and you are now trying to better yourself by finally reaching for published research. Sorry friend, that’s a fail.

What’s even worse is that, in your latest comment, you are taking results that responsibly conclude “we don’t know yet” to mean “no, it’s not happening”. Those are distinctly different conclusions.

Finally, I never mentioned climate models (IIRC). I pointed you to a retrospective study based on a high resolution reanalysis dataset that has assimilated a ton of atmospheric data including soundings and is capable of resolving the atmospheric conditions and three dimensional structure important for severe weather generation and that data shows, with statistical significance, that such severe weather and the conditions that fuel it has been increasing in the region in question — IN WINTER! Sorry, but that is in direct contradiction to your claim (supported by nothing) that “the trends are negative”. Your reflexive, (I presume) anti climate change bias has caused you to wade into your own deep murky waters that have now overtopped your hip waders and are threatening to drag you under. But maybe that’s better than the woodshed.

When you negotiated your repurchase disagreement it seems you were successful in establishing self-ownership at least…

I’m done with you. As I said, take it up with the published scientists on the topic at hand.

#84 Jiop on 12.13.21 at 9:50 pm

$40 billion!

#85 zxcvbnm on 12.13.21 at 9:53 pm

I hope you’re right, Garth. But I have my doubts. The last couple of years has shown me that TPTB are either incompetent and/or evil. Raising rates would be a smart good move. Thusly, it won’t happen. More likely, I think, is some sort of tax-based-on-the-colour-of-your-skin. TBOTCOYS I shall dub it. Clearly the play is to divide Canadians and sow hopelessness – not try to fix things.

#86 Yukon Elvis on 12.13.21 at 9:59 pm

#73 Albertaguy in AB on 12.13.21 at 8:47 pm
#30 Yukon Elvis on 12.13.21 at 5:29 pm

But what the hell, 65% of us voted for the Libdip Coalition so we will get what we deserve.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2021 Federal Election

Liberal 5,556,629 (32.6% of voter turnout)
NDP 3,036,348 (17.8% of voter turnout)
Total 8,592,977 (31.4% of registered voters)

8,592,977 / 17,034,243 = 50.4% of voter turnout

The 48% of eligible Canadians that did not vote should be ashamed of this result where 1/3 of eligible voters get to dictate to the 66% majority.

Voter Turnout: 17,034,243 of 27,366,297 registered electors (62.25%) — does not include electors who registered on election day.

https://www.elections.ca/enr/help/national_e.htm
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yah. I add the Blocheads to the Libdip 65% number cuz they always have their hand out for the free stuff too. Seems like only about 35% vote for any semblance of financial conservatism.

#87 JSS on 12.13.21 at 11:01 pm

If interest deductibility is removed from investment properties, won’t rents go up to make up for it?

#88 PastThePeak on 12.13.21 at 11:13 pm

How high is inflation really?

Looking at the US because, macro wise, that is what counts. The recent November numbers show a y/y increase of 6.8%, and the highest since 1982. But is CPI calculated the same now as back then? Of course not. The formula has changed (multiple times), but the historical numbers were never re-calculated.

Back in the early 1980’s, CPI calculation was significantly different to today in 3 ways:
– The price of housing was included (biggest change)
– There were no substitutions (beef is too high, use chicken instead)
– There were no hedonic adjustments (my computer price went up, but it is faster, so hedonic’s say it is a actually cheaper).

It doesn’t matter if you think the changes to the CPI calculation were an improvement or not – the fact is that the high inflation of the 70s/early 80s used a different formula than today (it is *not* apples-to-apples).

Simply putting in the increase price of housing would bring the CPI in November to 11%. That itself would make today’s inflation in the top 5 of worst years – ever! But there is more of course – the effects of substitution and hedonics.

Checkout the website which calculates this all for you:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

What does it show? That calculating the CPI today as was done in the early 80s, the inflation rate is touching 15%!!! With one more month to go in 2021 – calculated the old way – the inflation we are experiencing is the highest EVER!! (higher than the 13.5% of the last year of Jimmy Carter’s presidency).

Think about that. The highest inflation ever when comparing an even playing field, and the Fed keeps interest rates at 0%, while still adding liquidity monthly in QE.

Insanity is the only word…and the masses would revolt if they could ever glance up from their screens and figure out what is going on…

#89 All lies and manipulated u decide on 12.14.21 at 12:08 am

#1 TurnerNation on 12.13.21 at 7:51 am
—————————————-
Speaking of cold, never mind the lies are are being propelled. You live in the matrix.
A little history on the actual climate temperatures.
Its all about control.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye121321.pdf

#90 The New Neo on 12.14.21 at 1:28 am

I’m thinking of a number between 0 and nine hundred quadrillion. The first person to guess the number gets several bytes of data they can sell for $60,000 USD.

Congratulations you now understand Bitcon

#91 Robert Ash on 12.14.21 at 3:43 am

I think Tiff Macklim, on one of those Bankers retreats, likely in Jackson’s Hole, ….he had a tryst with Stephanie Kelton, and had a Voodoo moment, when he played his Johnson, and captured the Gals, heart, but first had to convert to that proven Ideological masterpiece of intellect… MMT.

#92 Kiril Peev on 12.14.21 at 4:10 am

For those that are interested my new website (kpre.ca) has sold prices/data for the Ottawa and surrounding areas. The data is available for the last 2 years.

https://www.kirilpeev.ca/sold-prices-in-ottawa-now-available/

#93 mark on 12.14.21 at 4:37 am

Rosie says NO!

#94 Do we have all the facts on 12.14.21 at 6:45 am

Prior to the Covid 19 crisis the Bank of Canada held about $77 billion in Government of Canada bonds.

Today the Bank of Canada holds $430 billion in Government of Canada bonds valued at current interest rates.

Is there any way of projecting the financial impact on the balance sheet of the Bank of Canada if the interest rates offered on new Government of Canada bonds was to follow increases in the overnight interest rate.

In my non-economist mind increases in the interest rate on new Government of Canada bonds reduces the value of bonds previously issued at a lower interest rate. A Bank that increased their holdings of low interest GOC bonds by $360 billion might view a potential increase in GOC bond rates with some trepidation.

I might find the conflict of interest currently facing the Bank of Canada interesting to observe if Modern Monetary Theory hadn’t converted the accumulation of debt into a virtue. Today all losses are simply converted to debt and pushed further into the future

Imagine if Visa allowed ordinary citizens to set the interest rate on their debts. No need to guess the results. The Bank of Canada however was created to protect Canadian citizens and the Canadian economy from excessive inflation.

Horns of a dilemma so it is.

#95 Phylis on 12.14.21 at 7:57 am

Hey gold boys! Christmas giving having you scratch your head? Why not invest a little in more gold? Make sure to put it in jewelry form which includes free safe storage with your significant other. Best investment you’ll make all year. XOXO dividends not available in bar form. Hurry, time’s running out!

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.14.21 at 8:09 am

@73 AlbertaGuy
“The 48% of eligible Canadians that did not vote should be ashamed of this result where 1/3 of eligible voters get to dictate to the 66% majority.”

+++

Or 48% of eligible voters were so disgusted at the leadership choices…they sat that joke of a snap election out.

Trudeau is a dilettante, riding on his fathers’ fame.
The NDP are a joke.
The Conservatives should have crushed both Party’s at the polls but ran a boring, uninspiring, pathetic campaign with a boring, uninspiring “leader”.
Mr “We Have A Plan For That”…… O’Toole.
The man had the spontaneous stage presence of a mannequin.
A nervous, stiff, wooden, over rehearsed, boring dweeb.

And he’s still there. In charge. Months after losing a “shoo in” election.
Unbelievable.
The Conservations are lost in the dark, stumbling around , tripping over themselves as Trudeau announces more multi billion dollar handouts with zero debate or accountability.
The “New Age, Socially aware, Woke” Liberals ( The NDP from another time), driving a spike in the heart of the Canadian economy.
As the seething anger in Canada continues to grow.

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.14.21 at 8:54 am

Jax has a cool name, and it looks like he’s drawing a bead on some critter there. That’s a good kitty.

#98 NoName on 12.14.21 at 8:55 am

#88 PastThePeak on 12.13.21 at 11:13 pm

Funny that you mentioned meat substitution.

I know people that substituted beef with other meats because price years ago.

Now they are talkin they would go with pretend meat produkt to substitute those cheaper meats, but it seams fake meat is even more expensive that premium meat… Oh the horror.

#99 Chameleon on 12.14.21 at 9:35 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTunhRVyREU

That’s really irritating. – Garth

-meow-meow-meow-

I was thinking that we should sing this to ourselves whenever a liberal politician speaks.

Like today for example.

As you’re watching the financial update, just sing this meow song to yourself. The talking heads on the TV may as well be saying meow meow meow meow meow meow meow.

Subtitles would read: Tax / Spend / Tax / Spend / Tax / Spend / Spend / Spend / Tax / Tax / Tax

That’s the two ingredients in the Liberal Meow Mix.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.14.21 at 9:41 am

#28 the jaguar on 12.13.21 at 5:15 pm
P.S…did something happen with the markets today?
I was busy studying the Russians at the beach. Such cute little boxer style swimsuits. Sigh.
———————
Boxer style swimsuits?

#101 Quintilian on 12.14.21 at 9:47 am

#94 Do we have all the facts
“The Bank of Canada however was created to protect Canadian citizens and the Canadian economy from excessive inflation.”

And it’s all too obvious that the BOC has failed to fulfil its mandate, because of its collusion with the governing party.

What it not so obvious is that the Conservatives have been an accessory to the crime against the economy and savers.

In parliamentary system, they were supposed to be the watchdogs.

Logic for dummies:

BOC, Liberals, Conservatives are politicians.
All politician are frauds.

#102 Dharma Bum on 12.14.21 at 10:10 am

Watching Chrystia is so nostalgic.

She reminds me of Grandpa Munster.

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FD3v0QWjUIAAm5CI.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fmobile.twitter.com%2Fctvnews%2Fstatus%2F1115683036387999749%3Flang%3Dbg&tbnid=zk5645MGyUfv7M&vet=12ahUKEwj66oucyeP0AhXNqXIEHQfoB8EQMygAegQIARAQ..i&docid=BoTpvtKixpb6DM&w=478&h=244&itg=1&q=chrystia%20freeland%20looks%20like%20grandpa%20munster&ved=2ahUKEwj66oucyeP0AhXNqXIEHQfoB8EQMygAegQIARAQ

#103 David Pylyp on 12.14.21 at 10:15 am

Hello Garth,

I am very sorry but I think you are wrong!

This: “This is the worst bout of rising prices we’ve experienced since Abba was nauseating us.”

ABBA? I love ABBA!

Who else could drive all those Momma’s onto the Dance floor Without – Dancing Queen?

Two words for you my friend…

Merry Christmas

#104 Linda on 12.14.21 at 11:09 am

#88 ‘Past’ – very interesting! I was aware that the inflation numbers were being manipulated via switching out various goods & services. While I’d like to believe true inflation isn’t as high as you suggest, I have to concede that the extremely high cost of housing of any sort would probably be more than enough to support inflation numbers in the double digits. Even without accommodation insofar as I can make out ‘true’ inflation is running between 6 to 8 percent, not the picayune figures our government is posting to the general disbelief of the public. Add in accommodation & I’d say the true inflation number is in the double digits.

#105 All lies and manipulated u decide on 12.14.21 at 11:30 am

Most of my friends and or tenants run large business.
Farmer buddy that owns many property’s say chicken feeds up 100% in one year. His free range chicken $4lb now and that’s the farm price.
Most building products up 25%.
Big electrical contractor bud says wires up 100% all other product 35%
Heat pump tenant say products up 35%.
I bought a side of beef use to pay $2.75 lb. Now $5.25 and that’s my BFF rate.
My land taxes on my commercial RE up 20%. Insurance from $3800 to $6500 in 3 years.
Good used vehicles and not Hyundai’s up near 60%.
5% inflation is a pipe dream.
Most are getting poorer and fast.
Trudeaus doesn’t care about inflation and his plan to get into bed with China and make the middle class here better off is a joke. Their hard core commies. You speak up you disappear TERRY GLAVIN on Campbells show on Sat has it right. disturbing and Kiss the good old days goodbye.
I love this country but we got one foot in the ditch and on a banana peel republic.
Best.

#106 All lies and manipulated u decide on 12.14.21 at 11:50 am

Do yourself a favor and see where T2 is taking this state.
DISSASTER
Terry Glavin
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/december-11th-episode/

#107 Sail Away on 12.14.21 at 12:12 pm

Anybody familiar with the ‘Universe 25’ mouse utopia experiment by John Calhoun? He ran it 25 times and in all cases, the population self-destructed from social collapse:

https://www.iflscience.com/plants-and-animals/universe-25-the-mouse-utopia-experiment-that-turned-into-an-apocalypse/

#108 Shawn Allen on 12.14.21 at 12:27 pm

#94 Do we have all the facts on 12.14.21 at 6:45 am said:

Prior to the Covid 19 crisis the Bank of Canada held about $77 billion in Government of Canada bonds.

Today the Bank of Canada holds $430 billion in Government of Canada bonds valued at current interest rates.

*********************

And you suggest the Bank of Canada faces a possible huge capital loss on these bonds as interest rates rise which then amounts to a conflict of interest.

Well, that is interesting. You are implying that the Bank of Canada marks these bonds to market. Is that true?

The bank of Canada has assets of $498 billion (Side point – does that not seem low in these days of $300 billion or whatever deficits?) and has equity capital of only $1.4 billion.

If this was a commercial bank it would be called insolvent. But it’s not.

Here is the balance sheet:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/bank-of-canada-assets-and-liabilities-weekly-formerly-b2/

Based on a quick look at the income statement, I don’t think the bank of Canada marks its bonds to market.

Here is is its latest quarterly report which shows an income statement. I have not read this but will take a look later.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/11/quarterly-financial-report-third-quarter-2021/

#109 James on 12.14.21 at 12:34 pm

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.14.21 at 8:09 am

@73 AlbertaGuy
“The 48% of eligible Canadians that did not vote should be ashamed of this result where 1/3 of eligible voters get to dictate to the 66% majority.”

+++

Or 48% of eligible voters were so disgusted at the leadership choices…they sat that joke of a snap election out.

Trudeau is a dilettante, riding on his fathers’ fame.
The NDP are a joke.
The Conservatives should have crushed both Party’s at the polls but ran a boring, uninspiring, pathetic campaign with a boring, uninspiring “leader”.
Mr “We Have A Plan For That”…… O’Toole.
The man had the spontaneous stage presence of a mannequin.
A nervous, stiff, wooden, over rehearsed, boring dweeb.

And he’s still there. In charge. Months after losing a “shoo in” election.
Unbelievable.
The Conservations are lost in the dark, stumbling around , tripping over themselves as Trudeau announces more multi billion dollar handouts with zero debate or accountability.
The “New Age, Socially aware, Woke” Liberals ( The NDP from another time), driving a spike in the heart of the Canadian economy.
As the seething anger in Canada continues to grow.
__________________________________________
Amen brother!

#110 All lies and manipulated u decide on 12.14.21 at 1:02 pm

#109 James on 12.14.21 at 12:34 pm
#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.14.21 at 8:09 am
——————————————–
Not published of course I’ve see the real numbers. The Cons won T2 lost. If you do your research it all goes back to Chinas greater plans and manipulation of the election.

Garth
These incredible increases on products will never really fall back even if cost in providing these products recede. People acclimate/concede and adjust. The companies providing are happy with a better bottom line and it actually supports a stronger stock market I do believe.

#111 Shawn Allen on 12.14.21 at 1:16 pm

Bank of Canada balance sheet and income statement

Actually, I now see that at least some and perhaps most of the banks bonds and assets are indeed marked to market but the government of Canada has indemnified the Bank of Canada for losses here and gains go to the government as well.

From the Q3 financial report that I linked above:

“Losses resulting from the sale of assets within the GBPP, the Corporate Bond Purchase Program and the Provincial Bond Purchase Program are indemnified by the Government of Canada, whereas gains on disposal are remitted to the government. The $8,019.2 million balance represents the fair value of the derivatives associated with the net unrealized losses on these assets as at September 30, 2021. Long-term bond yields rose in the first three quarters of 2021, compared with the same period in 2020, as the outlook for the economy improved. This resulted in a decrease in the fair value of the assets held by the Bank, which in turn led to an increase in unrealized losses on those same assets.”

Oh well, what’s another $8 billion addition to the deficit and lots more to come?

#112 NoName on 12.14.21 at 1:36 pm

#107 Sail Away on 12.14.21 at 12:12 pm
Anybody familiar with the ‘Universe 25’ mouse utopia experiment by John Calhoun? He ran it 25 times and in all cases, the population self-destructed from social collapse:

https://www.iflscience.com/plants-and-animals/universe-25-the-mouse-utopia-experiment-that-turned-into-an-apocalypse/

You think mouse utopia is interesting, wait when you to read this, electrocuting a mouse for sciense ofcourse…

Emory univercseety subjected mouse to electro shock therapy to change his behaviour. Funny enough his behaviour was passed down to the his children and stayed with future offspring for next few generations.

https://news.emory.edu/stories/2013/12/smell_epigenetics_ressler/campus.html

#113 the Awakened One on 12.14.21 at 2:11 pm

Gasp… the felines have taken over this blog!
3 cat photos in less than 10 days? That’s an ominous sign.
Garth, the cat lovers are sneaky: they slowly try to slip their agenda onto your page!

#114 Catalyst on 12.14.21 at 3:47 pm

Pure real estate bear porn to think mortgage rates will ever be 4% again.