Evil

Being married to me unfortunately involves ironing. So when Dorothy told me, “this ironing board sucks,” it was time to make tracks to Canadian Tire.

“If we’re going,” she added, ”I need a new coffee maker. And the electric kettle is croaking.”

By the time we arrived in the parking lot of the giant superstore, there were eight things on the list. We parked, masked and prepared for a pre-Noel retail nightmare. But there was none. For sure, customers milled around, pushing carts and looking needy. However, the store was shocking.

Of more than 20 coffee-makers on display, all but four were out of stock. There were two kettles. And one single, sad, solitary ironing board in Aisle 76, hanging from a hook. Dorothy was on it like a ravished, descending eagle snaring a baby hare.

Around us, emptiness. Whole shelves devoid of product, two weeks before Christmas. And not just the housey stuff. Everywhere – tools, sporting goods and car goods. “This feels like the pandemic all over again,” she said – and we recounted the hoarding in April of 2020 that emptied big box stores in a matter of hours. First toilet paper, then everything paper, then the entire meat counter. Poof. Gone.

But here, in the middle of urbanity, in the dawning of Omicron, nobody was piling a cart high and pigging out on product. Instead there seemed to be a confused bemusement. After all, this wasn’t flood-ravaged BC. Not Kamloops or Merritt. There are no busted highways in southern Ontario. No weather. No blockades. No issues. But still empty shelves.

Behold the supply chain. It’s broken. The reasons are many. For example, during 18 months of WFH, restrictions, lockdowns and vaxports the demand for services went way down and demand for goods exploded. That came after Covid has shut down factories for a while, and in a world where just-in-time delivery meant scant inventories on hand. So demand swamped supply. Then the climate got in the way. Summer droughts reduced crops. Historic floods delayed shipments. And Covid wouldn’t let up. Borders stayed closed longer than ever before. Ports were overwhelmed. The second wave turned into a third, then a fourth. It was, in short, one damn thing after another.

What’s this mean?

Our central bank now understands its stance a few months ago that inflation’s temporary was wrong. Shortages mean higher prices, lest businesses flounder and jobs are lost. The deputy boss gave a speech about it this week, warning this surge in rising costs could last a lot longer than we thought. And the CB will not be able to ignore it.

The bank’s inflation target is 2%, which seemed crazy a year and a half ago when the economy went into reverse. But now we’re pushing 5% and the Yanks are on the way to 7%. It’s the most significant price surge in three decades, which means the largest cohort of Canadian voters were still in Huggies when this last occurred.

Meanwhile the labour market is on fire. Over 157,000 new hires last month. The most vacant, unfilled jobs in Canadian history. Wages, salaries, incomes – up and up. The pay escalation is quiet right now, but very, very real.

Gas prices are shooting higher again after a brief bashing of oil by the latest variant. We all know about houses – a classic case of too many buyers, not enough product and swelling values as a result. And look at food. The hike during 2022 in grocery prices will be about 7%, says a new report this week. So a family of four will spend $15,000 for food, up a thousand bucks from 2021.

Inflation destroys the currency. It’s evil. The classic response is to restore some of that lost value by ensuring cash pays you more to own it. So the cost of money rises. Thus the supply chain and Canadian Tire’s lonely shelves are reinforcing the expectation that the central bank will soon begin to tighten, perhaps at its Jan.26 meeting.

At this point the market is indicating five interest rates increases during 2022, taking the benchmark rate from a quarter point to within putting range of 2%. HELOCs, personal lines of credit and variable-rate mortgages will all be repriced with each rate announcement. “If supply disruptions and related cost pressures persist for longer than expected and strong goods demand continues, this would increase the likelihood of inflation remaining above our control range,” the banker said. “This could feed into inflation expectations and contribute to wage pressures, leading to a second round of price increases.”

On Thursday the Trudeau government reassessed the Bank of Canada’s target inflation range – a review which happens every five years. It was renewed at 2%. Some thought it would be increased to let the economy run hot before the CB was forced to respond. But, no.

Many among us are about to learn Econ 101.

About the picture: “I just wanted to say how much I enjoy your blog,” writes Zoe, who has been trying to get her feline on this blog since 2017. “I’ve been a loyal reader for the better part of a decade.  Now that you are allowing cats to grace your posts I thought I would resend a picture of my sweet ‘Cheeto’.”

124 comments ↓

#1 Billy Buoy on 12.10.21 at 4:24 pm

And many among us are going to learn econ 101 has changed and doesn’t work in this world anymore.

A few tiny hikes, screaming masses saying their portfolios are going down the drain and CB’ers will get the call stating “Ok boys, that’s enough. Start dropping rates and if that doesn’t do it, que up QE part 563728920.”

BUT as it is the holiday season, let’s all believe in make believe and say 5 meaningful increasing actually happen.

#2 Alberta Ed on 12.10.21 at 4:27 pm

I doubt either Justin or Chrystia could pass Econ 101.

#3 yorkville renter on 12.10.21 at 4:27 pm

Let’s be more like Paul, and just “Let it be”.

RAISE THOSE RATES!

#4 Brett in Calgary on 12.10.21 at 4:28 pm

Did my end of year cap gains triggering today. Freeland will have to settle for a little less next tax season.

Ditto on the ‘I’ll take what you have in stock’. Now THAT is something ‘we are all in together’.

#5 Felix on 12.10.21 at 4:31 pm

Excellent photo.

Evil? Hardly. That’s just typical anti-feline RACISM rearing its dogawful head.

Cats are in charge, people. Deal with it.

#6 Adam on 12.10.21 at 4:33 pm

Can’t even buy a cell phone these days. They are all sold out.

#7 jimmy zhao on 12.10.21 at 4:34 pm

We need more newcomers to Canada to fill those job vacancies. Also, the Canadian birthrate has fallen to a 15-year low, below replacement levels. Canadian population is growing older and will shrink unless we bring in more people.

#8 Log Dover on 12.10.21 at 4:35 pm

Zoe, its more like …Now that you are allowing cats to DISgrace your posts …

#9 Chameleon on 12.10.21 at 4:38 pm

What’s going on?

12 Cats of Christmas?

Saving best for last?

Cats, cats, cats, and more cats!

We’ve gone from dogs to cats. Wonder what the next animal will be?

Capybara?

#10 Old Active on 12.10.21 at 4:39 pm

#71 Old Active on 12.10.21 at 10:52 am
Dear Dr. Garth,

Latest Ontario Covid Case numbers put fully vaccinated at 718 and unvaccinated at 613 – mostly probably children who couldn’t be vaccinated and in large part are still not. 96 mysterious unknown status people too.

How is that Covid Passport working or making any sense at all still?

So 718 cases from 80% of the population and 613 from 20%? How much more evidence do you need that the vax works? – Garth

>>>

I hear what you’re saying Sir. My point was not as much about the ratio of population as about the uselessness of the passport keeping us safe.

In the end it’s about the spreading, not if it was spread by vaccinated or unvaccinated.

#11 Slim on 12.10.21 at 4:40 pm

Econ 101 is like the law of gravity. What goes up, must come back down.

BTW, Garth the reason there was only one ironing board in the store is because nobody else uses them anymore.

#12 RichardTO on 12.10.21 at 4:41 pm

Actual inflation is somewhere between 20-25%.

#13 vanreal on 12.10.21 at 4:43 pm

Even with 8 increases money will still be extremely cheap. 8 increases only brings the rate to 2.25 %. that is still extemely low and who knows what will happen over the next year or two to send it hurtling downwards.

#14 Believe it or Not! on 12.10.21 at 4:49 pm

So it’s Friday, I figured I’d pass by 1100 The Queensway and pick up something at the Aren’t we Naughty adult store there.

OH NO! Aren’t we Naughty is gone!

1100 The Queensway is now a Scotiabank location!

I don’t know how to feel about this conversion.

Any guesses at the promotion that Soctiabank location is offering when you open a new savings account?

#15 Dolce Vita on 12.10.21 at 4:49 pm

I hate to tell you Garth and Canada IT’S YOUR OWN FAULT.

You want bargain basement prices from the Far East, you let your local manufacturers falter or go out of business to save a few CENTS on an ironing board.

Here in Italia, they tend to buy locally made or Made in Italy, they buy fruit and veggies that are in season in Winter from S. Italia (i.e., they do not demand kumquats, avocados, etc. year round).

Nov. 2021 EVERYTHING INFLATION is +0.7% on a monthly basis and +3.8% on an annual basis – stuff like energy Italia has no control over.

CORE INFLATION (excluding energy and unprocessed food) were +1.4% in Nov. (from +1.1% in the previous month).

https://www.istat.it/en/archivio/264173

——————-

You did it to yourselves Canada.

Enjoy your cheap Joe Fresh tee-shirts (they’re on a boat somewhere in English Bay).

Dorothy *, eat your heart out…

https://www.amazon.it/Colombo-Italiadoc-Stella-Arancio-Giallo/dp/B01N5P8ADO

€ 36.90
4.5/5 Stars
[Get it on Tuesday, Dec 14 between 1pm and 5pm]

* If Dorothy wants STREET CRED Italia can sell her a heated ironing board, blown air for delicates, breathable surface for steam and vacuum suction.

€ 254

#16 NewWest on 12.10.21 at 4:53 pm

I am actually not minding the lack of choice in the stores right now. I like the idea of having two kettles to choose from, not seven. (What I’d really like is one of those round chrome electric kettles like my mum had – lasted over 35 years – but I digress.)

Do we really need thousands of different faucet sets, or fifty different salad dressings or boxes of cereal?

We certainly don’t need any more of those inflatable Santas and snowmen adding yet more noise to the winter night. If those stopped coming it would be a mercy.

#17 Linda on 12.10.21 at 4:54 pm

I am amazed that the government didn’t demand the CB hike its target inflation range. Perhaps a glimmer of consequences from actions or lack thereof is finally beginning to percolate within the brains of JT & crew?

While I have been doing my best to limit my shopping exposure during the time of year when ‘good will to all men’ is noticeably absent (just get between a desired object & the shopping horde to understand what I mean) I have noted that supplies of just about everything are limited. Or non-existent, which is not something our society is at all used to. The supply chain issues do not look like they will be mended any time soon. Ditto the inflation issue. 2022 isn’t even here yet & is shaping up to be yet another ‘interesting’ year. Eek!

#18 earthboundmisfit on 12.10.21 at 4:56 pm

While I confess to still using a CT Financial credit card, I have bailed on the Beijing Five & Dime. The stores are a disgrace.

#19 Basil Exposition on 12.10.21 at 4:57 pm

The lease on my eldest son’s car run’s out in mid December. His car was built in Japan by fanatically loyal, seasoned, non-union Japanese auto workers. The brand boasts the highest resale value. Similar used models are advertised for $30,000. He can buy the car out for $18880.00. Very little inventory on the dealer’s lot. Dealer has offered a brand new car with no money down and lower monthly payments. New car would be ordered and arrive…who knows when. Difficult choice in challenging times. Thanks Dr. Garth.

#20 The Jaguar on 12.10.21 at 4:58 pm

Mercy. I usually end with that, but if you want to talk supply chain issues try being where The Jaguar is currently camping out. Good thing the beach is so incredibly beautiful and appears to be no shortage of rum. Yikes! Time to meet up for pre-dinner cocktails. Make mine a ‘Presidente’.

#21 Dolce Vita on 12.10.21 at 5:00 pm

Off topic.

Been watching Season 8 Under Arrest on NETFLIX ITALIA.

I use Italian subtitles and read poor Italia dealing with the language of Western Canadian Citizens in trouble with Canada’s Finest. Hilarious.

The Italians manage to Romance even THAT.

My favorite and the Italians turned it into a Harlequin Romance was the gal that had a few, was walking home and Boy in Blue decidedly got her attention.

Season 8, Episode “I’m a Free Citizen”, circa the 16 min mark. If you can understand a bit of Italian, it’s worth turning their subtitles on.

Boy in Blue meets tipsy Chick.

Romance on the streets of Edmonton – well, in Italian anyways.

#22 Damifino on 12.10.21 at 5:01 pm

My wife, being married to me, also finds that involves ironing. For me. Both mine and hers. Since she detests the job, I do it all. Plus the vacuuming and several other household chores. Poor me.

On the other hand, I cook practically nothing and my wife happens to be quite skilled at it. She even enjoys it. Without her, I might starve. So it works out.

Two years ago, in the before times, I decided that my ironing board, too, was crap. I got a great one at Canadian Tire. That inspired me to also replace my iron (also crap) at Bed, Bath & Beyond. Lots of selection in both places. But that was then.

Some back of the napkin math tells me I’m unlikely to purchase another iron, or ironing board. So I guess in that way, I’m set for life, so to speak. And isn’t that always the way for us boomers?

#23 Elon Fanboy on 12.10.21 at 5:06 pm

Omricon is starting to look pretty damn scary.

In the UK cases are doubling every 1.6 days. That’s an Rt of 6 ! (Delta rt was about 1.1). That’s half a million cases per DAY in the UK by Christmas!!

Various groups releasing results today of vaccine efficacy against Omicron. Not good, basically we all need booster shots, yesterday.

The ‘good news’ is that no one has died yet from Omicron, but it’s early days.

Even if it is milder than Delta and relatively smaller % end up in ICU compared to Delta, a small % of a very large number is still a big number!

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1469160200083025923?s=21

#24 centarl banks are thieves on 12.10.21 at 5:07 pm

“Inflation destroys the currency.”

Central Banks destroy currency. Inflation is nothing more than debasement of the currency by Central Banks.

supply chains are not the issue.
covid is not the issue.
gas prices and food prices are not the issue.
shortages are not the issue.

the issue is corrupt central bankers.

none of those things are the actual CAUSE of inflation. they are the RESULT of inflation.

unless you can understand the problem, you can’t figure out the solution.

without the world awash in paper money greater than 120 Trillion all thanks to central banks around the planet.

#25 Alberta Nomad on 12.10.21 at 5:10 pm

Interesting, the shelves @ CT have been overflowing up here in Whitehorse. It is actually challenging to walk through the store with a cart. Though paper towel and bumwad is in perpetual short supply.

#26 TurnerNation on 12.10.21 at 5:12 pm

This is permanent guys. Every human globally must have a QR code and be put into the Blockchain.
The Blockchain as build for us. What else currently do you use it for in your life?

“Heath passports” have been planned for years, decades. E.g. https://id2020.org/
Local governments now mean nothing. It’s a global thing.

.Ontario: a senior official said the government is taking that end date off the table and is making the proof-of-vaccine system end date indefinite. (cbc.ca)

.Ireland seems to have no exit strategy for our vaccine pass system – Irish Times(irishtimes.com)

…Which is part of the War on Small business. But we will be so healthy. Can’t wait.

https://twitter.com/CFIB/status/1469306108623966209

Dan Kelly @CFIB
Over 60% of businesses required to use vaccine passports report lower sales as a direct result (less than 10% saw an increase). Over half have faced abuse and/or increased costs.

#27 The joy of steerage on 12.10.21 at 5:13 pm

What the hell is an ironing board.. I recall something from the 1950s movies ….is that something sleazy realtors and lawyers still use?

#28 B-North on 12.10.21 at 5:14 pm

#19 Basil Exposition on 12.10.21 at 4:57 pm
The lease on my eldest son’s car run’s out in mid December. His car was built in Japan by fanatically loyal, seasoned, non-union Japanese auto workers. The brand boasts the highest resale value. Similar used models are advertised for $30,000. He can buy the car out for $18880.00. Very little inventory on the dealer’s lot. Dealer has offered a brand new car with no money down and lower monthly payments. New car would be ordered and arrive…who knows when. Difficult choice in challenging times. Thanks Dr. Garth.
____

Seems like he would actually be putting $12k down and starting payments again. Not a difficult choice at all when option B is buying it out at a $12k discount from market. Eschew debt.

#29 Mean Gene on 12.10.21 at 5:15 pm

What is old is now new.

Ronald Reagan joke: A man stands in the line to buy a car and plunks down the money for his new car. The person in charge says, “Come back in ten years to pick up your car.” The buyer says, “Morning or afternoon?” “Does it really matter?” says the person in charge. “Yes — the plumber’s scheduled to come in the morning.”

#30 active on 12.10.21 at 5:15 pm

people still iron these days and wear suits? …funny stuff…

#31 Old Active on 12.10.21 at 5:16 pm

#21 Dolce Vita

DV, you on Season 8 of Under Arrest?

Youa no havea enougha ofa locka downas in Italia you needa to watcha ona televisione?

I mandatea you to unvaccinate your self from the Netflixa!

Mama Mia.

#32 Wrk.dover on 12.10.21 at 5:16 pm

Canadian tire online, Yarmouth NS inventory shows most of the selections of your shopping list items are in stock, Old Sport. Digby store, same owner, not as big, and just renovated, so not so much selection. Yarmouth store about as big as they come.

The beauty of Yarmouth is, by land it is surrounded by wilderness, but it is also 75% surrounded by ocean.

#33 Shawn Allen on 12.10.21 at 5:17 pm

Canadian Tire items in stock?

My kids tell me to check the “app” before you drive. It will tell if the item is in stock and if so what aisle it’s in. So far, I am going old school and taking my chances.

My Edmonton Canadian Tire (technically in St. Albert, a suburb) looked well stocked today except for (understandably) no ice melt after a recent ice storm. But I did not look at the Kettle aisle.

Each Canadian Tre Dealer / owner is responsible for their own inventory and some may be far better stocked than others.

I am not disagreeing at all about supply chain issues. Just making my own observations about my local Canadian Tire.

#34 OK, Doomer on 12.10.21 at 5:17 pm

I just read that the US is dealing with inflation in a very novel way. They’ll be re-jigging the indices to pre-COVID levels to make it go away.

Annnd its gone……

To all the Mills who wonder how us Boomers got to be so crotchety, conservative and cynical, it’s because we’ve been lied to so many times we learned to smell BS a mile away. We had to.

So, Mills, here’s your first introduction to inflation and the lying the government does to try to cover it up. We had a run of it when we were your age and it scared the pi$$ out of us and made us angry.

Welcome to the 1980’s and see you on the other side, battered, scarred and wiser.

#35 Pandemic Is Over on 12.10.21 at 5:22 pm

Perhaps CB will go +0.5% in January. Because emergency.

#36 Red Neck Porsche Driver on 12.10.21 at 5:23 pm

#4 Brett in Calgary on 12.10.21 at 4:28 pm
Did my end of year cap gains triggering today. Freeland will have to settle for a little less next tax season.

Ditto on the ‘I’ll take what you have in stock’. Now THAT is something ‘we are all in together’.

_______________________________________

Did mine a while ago. Cashed out a tidy win and bought an old Porsche that’s increased 20% since I bought it.

The best revenge is living well.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.21 at 5:31 pm

Rising wages, rising material costs, rising shipping costs.
Inflation here we come.
Be interesting to see the sales numbers for Dec in Jan.
Fugly won’t even begin to describe whats coming.

Pay off your debt and build up a war chest.

The cat looks like Satan’s spawn latched onto that big toe.

#38 Shawn Allen on 12.10.21 at 5:31 pm

Grocery Inflation?

Absolutely, some prices have risen sharply.

I did buy four liter jugs of Milk today at Superstore for $4.75. That seems cheap to me for a healthy food item. My grocery store owner friends tell me Milk is a loss-leader so that may be why it’s so cheap despite the evil Milk Marketing Board and quota system. Eggs are also remarkably cheap even if they cost more than in the U.S.

Roma Tomatoes were 3 pounds for $5.99. Again, healthy and pretty cheap. Yogurt in about a liter jug (650 grams) was on for $2.99. Seems reasonable to me. Red Rose Tea not on sale so I bought the store-brand 216 tea bags for $6.79 that’s only 3.2 cents per tea bag!

If shopping at Loblaws / Superstore it is very advantageous to sign up for their discount / reward card and they will send you the weekly points offers which are in addition to the low prices.

I only dabble at it but dedicated coupon clippers / points hogs can easily save 30% maybe more. Buy what’s on sale. If it’s not on sale, don’t buy it. This is particularly the case for seniors who have the time for all this shopping around.

#39 Chalkie on 12.10.21 at 5:36 pm

How we rely on the rest of the world to supply us everything from soup to nuts, is beyond me.
Smarten up boomers, there is so much room in this beautiful country to start Manufacturing thousands of different products, and our resources for raw materials is at your neighbourhood fingertips.
Forget about GM or Ford vehicles, you have the talent, go start an assembly plant and call your vehicles, Atlantic Canada Thinkers (ACT) or Western Environmental Trucks (WET) , plenty of funds available, start an IPO.
Jump ahead now or reply on India, China , Taiwan or whatever country that has us held hostage now on needed goods. Let’s put the shoe on the other foot for a change and not be sleep and dreaming at the elm.

#40 Dolce Vita on 12.10.21 at 5:44 pm

Nov. 26. Oslo, Norway. Christmas Party, Scatec Solar Power company. Louise Restaurant and Bar.

– 200 people. Fully vaxd (2 dose).
– 1 traveller returned from South Africa returned days earlier.
– Mingled with other groups after Christmas Party.

BAD NEWS
– 70 out of 120 at party tested positive for Omicron.
– 50 others (the “mingled with’) also tested positive for Omicron.
– 13 of 120 infected sequenced and it was Omicron.

1 evening from 1 person.

GOOD NEWS
– So far no one in hospital.

———————

Omicron way more contagious than Delta but MILD * affliction (so far).

https://youtu.be/5r0AA41dgLU?t=1

Omicron gathering steam in a few weeks in N. America…

https://youtu.be/Ss1LSwjtrhA?t=1

* My view and the Doc’s is that there will be a lot of hospitalizations due to the crushing weight/number of cases.

Not many as ill vs. Delta but a numbers game at the end of the day with Omicron.

#41 Nonplused on 12.10.21 at 5:45 pm

Well, I got a sweet deal on a 9″ band saw at Canadian Tire today. Regular $269, after several mark downs $114, and then because it was a one day special where if you spend $250 you get $50 in CT money, and the other things in the cart put me over the target, I figure I got the band saw for $64. Nice. I’d been eyeing one up for a while but putting it off because I can normally make do with other tools. They had a whole pallet of them.

But that was the story of the whole store. The last remnants of the Christmas decorations were on sale but stock was low, and the rest of the store was pallets of things they usually don’t have a pallet of or sketchy shelves. They also had a pallet of table saws for example, but I already have one of those acting as a bench extension. Welders too. I think what they are doing is trying to manage logistical constraints by just offloading things off the truck wherever they can and then trying to get rid of it before year end. Normally that pallet of band saws would go to a distribution center and then 2 would be sent to each store that had none. Apparently that isn’t happening so they are just dumping the whole pallet and lowering the price and you have to drive where it is if you want one.

——————————————

I tried getting some new numbers for my address sign because mine are faded and I’m tired of carriers delivering my packages to just about any house in the neighborhood but mine. Nope. CT had none.

This is a growing problem I find, carriers figure if they take a photo of the package on the porch then the package is delivered and they put the photo in the tracker, and it doesn’t really matter to them that they clearly photographed the wrong porch. I’ve gotten packages that weren’t even destined for our postal code! So on Saturdays we have a neighborhood gift exchange now where everyone sorts out where the packages should have been delivered. Anyone else having this problem? Seems tracking is kind of useless if the drivers figure anywhere in the neighborhood will do.

And don’t get me going on Skip or Door Dash! I had a case where the driver marked our pizza delivered, but it wasn’t, and it was snowing so I could tell no cars had even been in our cul-de-sac! We sent out an APB to the neighborhood via What’s App and nobody else admitted to getting any pizza either. Got my money back, which is fine, but now it’s 9:30 PM and I have to inform everyone that we won’t be eating pizza tonight.

Heck, Purolator even missed the house with a new iPhone, and the house they delivered to has a big carved rock sign that couldn’t be anymore obvious. It was not our address.

I found out after I complained about it that when this happens eBay just assumes the package was stolen, but this must be costing them a fortune on overhead.

See if you can tell the difference between these two addresses:

27 Jumping Hare Place PC ending in 5.
27 Jumping Hare Way PC ending in 6.

The drivers cannot. They cannot tell the difference between 27 and 29 even if they get the rest right.

So good luck with that last minute Christmas shopping! CT probably doesn’t have what you are looking for unless it’s a welder, then it’s on sale, and Amazon is a good way to buy nice things for the neighbors. Sort of a secret Santa program.

To be fair, “they” did warn us.

#42 Observer on 12.10.21 at 5:45 pm

#10 OldActive
“My point was not as much about the ratio of population as about the uselessness of the passport keeping us safe.

In the end it’s about the spreading, not if it was spread by vaccinated or unvaccinated.”

Vaccine mandates (passports) reduce spread because they encourage people to get vaccinated. Vaccinated people are less likely to get infected, thus less likely to spread COVID-19 (you have to get it to spread it).

#43 Predictions on 12.10.21 at 5:46 pm

So many precise predictions!

Why not tackle the supply chain issues instead of raising rates. Demand is there and is a good thing! Why destroy that. I know we all want to see house prices fall, but come on now!

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.21 at 5:47 pm

Gee a non NATO country actually made a descision on the purchase of new fighter jets……

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-f-35-jet-wins-finnish-fighter-competition-source-2021-12-10/

And I bet it didnt take 15 years to do it.

What an utter joke this country’s “leadership” has become.

Cue Ponzie Pro Liberal response…..

#45 Damifino on 12.10.21 at 5:48 pm

#79 BillyBob

The shots at Tesla are pretty amusing. [….] Don’t like them? Fine. But why be triggered by their undeniable popularity or stock success? No one is forcing anyone to buy one.
———————————–

Your point is well taken. There is nothing inherently wrong with the concept of an electric vehicle, Tesla or otherwise. The irritating thing is when they are touted as some kind of “answer” to the Climate Crisis™.

What nonsense. EV’s are remote combustion vehicles. Pure and simple. Hydrocarbons burning in a distant locale to power a city-driven vehicle is great virtue signalling but makes not a scrap of difference to global emissions, if that’s something you’re concerned about.

When the world finally becomes awash in nuclear energy that’s “too cheap to meter” it will make a lot more sense. In the meantime, wind turbines and solar panels simply won’t fill the gap. Not even close.

#46 ogdoad on 12.10.21 at 5:49 pm

phew, those are green eyes….

I hope the people that read this blog are heavily evolved in giving. You are obviously rich, lots of $$ and investments: are able afford dogs (and cats), and are, really, too smart to be amongst ‘the others’.

I would hate to think that Belarus, Haiti…migration of Syria, Afghanistan…obesity (other than famine) of some first worlders and loneliness (to name a few) would be off your radar for this holiday season.

Or?

Og

#47 HH on 12.10.21 at 5:53 pm

I am happy to see that cats are getting equal recognition with the dogs. I have a cat. His name is Baxter. He just had a tooth extracted and is nearing the end of his antibiotics. The vet bill was $721.00. His dental work costs more than mine. My family members have dogs and cats. We do not discriminate. We love them equally.

#48 NOSTRADAMUS on 12.10.21 at 5:53 pm

TARRED AND FEATHERED!
No doubt I will shortly be tarred and feathered for predicting the return of my friend ” The Donald.” Years ago, another friend, Roy Orbison fell out of favor, most of my friends abandoned Roy and moved on to the head banger music. I stayed the course, and Roy eventually came back bigger and much more popular than ever. Once, every 100 years a great states man appears on the world stage, my friend “The Donald.” Amen Brother.

#49 Nothing Surprises on 12.10.21 at 5:57 pm

We have two ironing boards.
One my wife uses for ironing and the other with an aluminum top with holes, I use as a level surface to receive wood pieces I run through my table saw.
The board can be raised and lowered as required.
Pick up cheaply at a Goodwill or Restore.

If the ironing board my wife uses fails, she can use mine.

#50 Sail Away on 12.10.21 at 6:07 pm

#39 Nonplused on 12.10.21 at 5:45 pm

See if you can tell the difference between these two addresses:

27 Jumping Hare Place PC ending in 5.
27 Jumping Hare Way PC ending in 6.

——

The issue is clear. ’27’ does not end in either 5 or 6.

#51 chris on 12.10.21 at 6:11 pm

#71 Old Active on 12.10.21 at 10:52 am
Dear Dr. Garth,

Latest Ontario Covid Case numbers put fully vaccinated at 718 and unvaccinated at 613 – mostly probably children who couldn’t be vaccinated and in large part are still not. 96 mysterious unknown status people too.

How is that Covid Passport working or making any sense at all still?

So 718 cases from 80% of the population and 613 from 20%? How much more evidence do you need that the vax works? – Garth

>>>

Sorry to break it to you .. math does not work like that … you can do percentages if you only know from the number of TESTED people today how many were vaccinated and how many were not … not from the general population vaxed\unvaxed percentages.. You cannot assume the same % .. we need to know that info.. if the tested today lets say were 10k and 50% vaxxed and 50% not .. then do the math .. if you can’t will be happy to help .. THx

Sure, go ahead, anti-vax boy. Should be amusing. – Garth

#52 Wrk.dover on 12.10.21 at 6:12 pm

They will only buy Japanese cars because they tell us those are the best cars built in this entire galaxy!

Then they will only keep them two or three years, even in a shortage.

What is the matter with these buyers brains?
Is it a result of the plastic interiors off gassing?

#53 kommykim on 12.10.21 at 6:13 pm

“The budget will balance itself” Trudeau February, 2014.

“Inflation is still temporary” Tiff Macklem Oct, 2021

#54 Don Guillermo on 12.10.21 at 6:15 pm

#20 The Jaguar on 12.10.21 at 4:58 pm
Mercy. I usually end with that, but if you want to talk supply chain issues try being where The Jaguar is currently camping out. Good thing the beach is so incredibly beautiful and appears to be no shortage of rum. Yikes! Time to meet up for pre-dinner cocktails. Make mine a ‘Presidente’
******************************************
Jag, glad you made it safe and are enjoying the beautiful Caribbean waters and tasty rums! ¡Salud!

#55 Quintilian on 12.10.21 at 6:17 pm

Econ 101 number one axiom is about trade offs.

If the BOC declares war on inflation, there would be collateral damage.

By the second round of hikes, speculators and investors alike, would start to take the Central Bank seriously and get spooked by the prospect of an economic slowdown of a possible recession.

The paramount concern would become Capital Preservation and a flight to safety; possibly driving long bond prices up and yields down.

We could end up with higher short-term rates, and lower long-term rates.

#56 Wrk.dover on 12.10.21 at 6:18 pm

Where is S. Bby?

Lumber closed @ $1069USD!

#57 Dolce Vita on 12.10.21 at 6:21 pm

Germany today passed a law of Health Care Worker compulsory vaxing.

You know, I see the UK, Sweden, Germany, etc. doing what Italia did last year and they’re just starting to do it now incl. enforcing Vax Passports locally and not just using them only for travel to say Italia or a number of Regions in Spain.

Look, Italia still has a Cases/100K rate of 176.

Sure it’s low compared to the rest of Europe, the lowest in fact. Some not even close, e.g., France 509, Germany 441, UK 493, Denmark 685. Slovakia 1330, etc.

Sweden and Spain low too but they don’t even do HALF the testing that Italia does yet both panicking now (that alone should tell you something about the BS Gov reporting coming from those 2 countries, 1 about tourism and the other about saving face).

To me, it’s still high (Italia) and these other countries are going to be disappointed as they will hit a wall by doing what Italia is doing AND Omicron hasn’t started to take hold yet in Europa.

Still:

La speranza è l’ultima a morire.

#58 TurnerNation on 12.10.21 at 6:24 pm

Weekend read. The industrial revolution? Why ahead of time they are firing people over mandates (not laws)?
This all sound so normal.

See how the A.I. is to run the New System?:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/10/south-korea-cuts-human-interaction-in-push-to-build-untact-society

South Korea cuts human interaction in push to build ‘untact’ society
Robots brew coffee and bring beverages to tables in cafes. A robotic arm batters fries and chicken to perfection. At Yongin Severance Hospital, Keemi – a 5G-powered disinfection robot – sprays hand sanitiser, checks body temperature, polices social distancing, and even tells people off for not wearing masks.

Unmanned or hybrid shops are flourishing. Mobile carrier LG Uplus recently opened several untact phone shops, where customers can compare models, sign contracts and receive the latest smartphones without ever having to deal with a real person.

Seoul City plans to build a “metaverse” – a virtual space where users can interact with digital representations of people and objects – and avatars of public officials will resolve complaints. Several local governments have launched AI call bots to monitor the health of those self-isolating

#59 Faron on 12.10.21 at 6:27 pm

Quick glance at the 10-year yield implies that, if the rate move is symmetrical about the Aug, 2020 lows (no reason it should be to be fair) it’s due for a romp higher in the next few months. A doubling in the next year isn’t out of the question based on what happened after July, 2016. That move also saw the price growth of RE stall until 2019 when rates began to drop again…

Neither here nor there, but inflation adjusted mortgage rates are currently negative. So, it’s going to take a bit of doing to get the value prospect of a mortgage to flip in our current inflation environment.

#60 Dolce Vita on 12.10.21 at 6:33 pm

Here Garth, my version of:

ECON 101 – Canada Theory

Let’s offshore manufacturing to the Far East low wage rate countries so we can concentrate on the higher skilled SERVICES SECTOR jobs and drop tariffs.

Outcome:

– Top IT Services firms from India.
– China has a Space Program with Honest to God Astronauts and a Lunar Lander on the Moon.

– Cdn Manufacturing gutted.
– Canada has Supply Chain shortages galore, rampant inflation and is at the mercy of the Far East.
– To generate lost wealth that used to come from Manufacturing, Canada has turned a home into an asset class that few can afford to purchase let alone sell.

——————–

Question:

So, how’d that CDN ECON 101 theory work out for you Canada?

#61 Sheesh on 12.10.21 at 6:34 pm

#41 NP
27 Jumping Hare Place PC ending in 5.
27 Jumping Hare Way PC ending in 6.

……

Blame the person who ran out of ideas when naming the streets.

#62 Sheesh on 12.10.21 at 6:44 pm

#51 chris on 12.10.21 at 6:11 pm

Hey math boy, you could also look at the infection rate per 100 000k vaxxed vs unvaxxed. Those stats are readily available.

#63 Shawn Allen on 12.10.21 at 6:44 pm

I heard a lie and believed it and spread it?

#34 OK, Doomer on 12.10.21 at 5:17 pm

I just read that the US is dealing with inflation in a very novel way. They’ll be re-jigging the indices to pre-COVID levels to make it go away.

************************
Meanwhile in reality the U.S. just openly and fully reported November inflation at 6.8% year over year. And Social Security payments based on I believe the October number are getting a 5.9% raise in January.

And if some prices like gasoline were way down during part of the COVID times then of course it does make sense to look back at 2019 prices.

Sheesh some people want to see a conspiracy around every corner. No one is hiding inflation numbers. And just because they also look at core numbers does not mean anything is hidden or nefarious.

#64 DON on 12.10.21 at 6:45 pm

#43 Predictions on 12.10.21 at 5:46 pm
So many precise predictions!

Why not tackle the supply chain issues instead of raising rates. Demand is there and is a good thing! Why destroy that. I know we all want to see house prices fall, but come on now!

**********

Is it that simple…given what got us here?

The money printer went brrrrrr for two long among other contributors.

I wonder if the residential property investors are using variable rate loans?? How about the heloc users are they all prudent? No magic pill here. Consequencies and the knowledge that you alone are responsible for your actions.

#65 Shawn Allen on 12.10.21 at 6:56 pm

Canadian Tire

Get their Triangle rewards card (it’s free) and sign up and they will send you “offers” for 10 and 20% off in Canadian Tire on the card money.

And they will send you offers like buy $80 and we will give you $20 in Canadian Tire money.

You’ll find yourself wondering around the store to pick up $20 or $30 extra you did not plan to spend in order to get your free $20.

You’ll feel manipulated but that’s par for the course.

Canadian Tire Corp. has been firing on all cylinders since about 2008 in particular.

Founded September 15, 1922 their 100th anniversary is upon us. Martha Billes daughter of one of the two founding brothers together with her son Own control the company by owning most of the multiple voting shares.

The longtime Chair”man” is Maureen Sabia sister of well-known titan Michael Sabia. She is beyond first rate. Canadian Tire is a major Canadian success story.

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 7:03 pm

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.21 at 5:47 pm
Gee a non NATO country actually made a descision on the purchase of new fighter jets……

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-f-35-jet-wins-finnish-fighter-competition-source-2021-12-10/

And I bet it didnt take 15 years to do it.

What an utter joke this country’s “leadership” has become.

Cue Ponzie Pro Liberal response…..
———————
Hate Fighter Jets and all military hardware.
The Congress argued for 5 month over an infra structure bill of 1.5 Trillon covering the whole States.
The Pentagon gets about 800 billion, no questions asked.
So, what is your problem, again?

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.21 at 7:08 pm

@#47 HH
“I have a cat. His name is Baxter. He just had a tooth extracted and is nearing the end of his antibiotics. The vet bill was $721.00. His dental work costs more than mine. ”
+++

i just got a new crown today.
20 minutes to pull the temporary cap off and install the new zirconium crown.
$1250

Now I look like this.

https://video-images.vice.com/_uncategorized/1515512098477-Screen-Shot-2018-01-09-at-102226-AM.png

Ponzie, eat your heart out.

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 7:08 pm

For me, it’s Costco all the way.
Canadian tire and their 80% off specials.
Either, their margins are insane, or they applying the snake oil salesman technique.
And, try to return something at Canadian Tire.
They make you feel like you stole the item.

#69 Old Active on 12.10.21 at 7:12 pm

#42 Observer on 12.10.21 at 5:45 pm
#10 OldActive
“My point was not as much about the ratio of population as about the uselessness of the passport keeping us safe.

In the end it’s about the spreading, not if it was spread by vaccinated or unvaccinated.”

Vaccine mandates (passports) reduce spread because they encourage people to get vaccinated. Vaccinated people are less likely to get infected, thus less likely to spread COVID-19 (you have to get it to spread it).

…..

I’m not sure I agree with your observation.

Bottom line is there were more vaccinated spreaders than unvaccinated yesterday. Over 100 more.

Yeay passports?

Watch as they stop reporting vaccinated and unvaccinated soon. It’s starting to be an inconvenience a bit to this passport thing…isn’t it?

I don’t need to remind you about the various official reports that show vaccinated carry same viral loads as unvaccinated? And that is it vaccinated passport carrying members who spread variants around the world, do I? :-)

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.10.21 at 7:26 pm

@#66 Ponzie’s Political Ping Pong

“So, what is your problem, again?”

++++

The HUNDREDS of Millions of dollars $$$$$ the successive Canadian govts have squandered in their “on again off again” military purchases.

Paying military suppliers millions to cancel contracts and start negotiating all over again.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/five-decades-two-contracts-and-still-no-helicopters-for-canada/article8435147/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-spends-another-us-71m-on-f-35-amid-calls-to-cancel-fighter-jet-purchase-1.5517876

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/06/04/canada-would-face-multi-billion-dollar-penalty-if-it-cancelled-armoured-vehicle-sale-to-saudis.html

On and on and on the politicians and bureaucrats squander our billions of tax dollars and no one is ever EVER accountable.

As a former accountant…. I would think you could read the balance sheets and realize…..we’re a nation of dithering idiots.

#71 In Flated on 12.10.21 at 7:31 pm

#24 centarl banks are thieves on 12.10.21 at 5:07 pm
“Inflation destroys the currency.”

Central Banks destroy currency. Inflation is nothing more than debasement of the currency by Central Banks.

¥£€£¥£€£¥£€

Fascinating how people don’t realize this simple fact.

Inflation is mandated and a government and CB scam to tax is and erode our wealth.

Hilarious that they’ve created.

Hilarious that they are ignoring it.

Hilarious how screwed we are by them. For a long long time.

#72 Chinadian Tire on 12.10.21 at 7:36 pm

Shawn Allen’s posts today sponsored by…

Canadian Tire.

Selling mostly Chinese made junk.

Hey, Shawn Allen, how is the interest rate at the Canadian Tire Central Bank? Is the value of my Canadian Tire money taking a 10% hit each month due to inflation or is the Canadian Tire Money Savings Account returning 10% interest to offset?

#73 Drinking on 12.10.21 at 7:47 pm

Can’t fix stupid including another feline pic; goes well with this current government…. Adieus!

#74 Shawn Allen on 12.10.21 at 7:49 pm

Canadian Tire vs Costco

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 7:08 pm

For me, it’s Costco all the way.
Canadian tire and their 80% off specials.
Either, their margins are insane, or they applying the snake oil salesman technique.
And, try to return something at Canadian Tire.
They make you feel like you stole the item.

*********************
I can’t argue with that. Costco is fantastic and you don’t have to wait for a sale. Costco has lower costs and can make big profits while having the lowest prices.

Charlie Munger is on the Costco Board. He is getting close to his own 100th anniversary.

I shop at both stores and own shares in both. But Costco is very pricy on a P/E basis.

#75 Yuus bin Haad on 12.10.21 at 7:52 pm

I thought the Climate Change target was 2% … maybe I’m wrong … pretty sure it was 2 of something

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 7:55 pm

#54 Don Guillermo on 12.10.21 at 6:15 pm
#20 The Jaguar on 12.10.21 at 4:58 pm
Mercy. I usually end with that, but if you want to talk supply chain issues try being where The Jaguar is currently camping out. Good thing the beach is so incredibly beautiful and appears to be no shortage of rum. Yikes! Time to meet up for pre-dinner cocktails. Make mine a ‘Presidente’
******************************************
Jag, glad you made it safe and are enjoying the beautiful Caribbean waters and tasty rums! ¡Salud!
——————————
Why would he not be safe?
The news about beach shootings getting to you?

#77 Drinking on 12.10.21 at 7:59 pm

#60 Dolce Vita

It doesn’t and will not and yet Hogtown keeps voting for this; oh well, happy life in Italy or you have a good VPN!
Move young educated one’s MOVE!!!
Bananas will soon be $5 a pound never mind cauliflower!!!

#78 twofatcats on 12.10.21 at 8:21 pm

Dec 10. Today’s flipped ‘principal residence’ hasn’t even been built yet:

https://www.niagarathisweek.com/news-story/10530703-west-street-condo-units-sold-out-in-port-colborne/

#79 Midnights on 12.10.21 at 8:23 pm

2 weeks to 700 days to flatten the curve. If government was a stock/ETF, you’d be down. HUGE!

#80 centarl banks are thieves on 12.10.21 at 8:24 pm

#71 In Flated on 12.10.21 at 7:31 pm
______________________________________

REAL rates are nearly -6% today in the US.

i guess nobody is worried what kind of consequences that will bring.

the scramble to buy real assets hasn’t even begun.

#81 Drill Baby Drill on 12.10.21 at 8:29 pm

For our dumb gluteus maximus PM is there a course even lower than Econ 101?

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 8:39 pm

#81 the Awakened One on 12.10.21 at 1:09 pm
Hmm… I’m a bit worried about this insidious and frequent appearance of feline characters on here!

Last time (about 2019) Garth posted a cat photo, the market tanked almost 30%!

We have seen 2 cat pics here in a row last few days… Dog knows whazzat means…
————————-
It has me wondering, too.
What’s the message here?
But I caution not to panic.
But if Garth posts the picture of a Black Cat.
Run for the hills.
If there are no hills, just panic.

#83 Sail Away on 12.10.21 at 8:40 pm

#74 Shawn Allen on 12.10.21 at 7:49 pm

Re: Costco and CTC investing

——–

Canadian Tire doesn’t quite make my list, due to consistency. I look at 1yr/5yr/10yr returns. Here’s how the two compare:

CTC: 18%/27%/369%
COST: 38%/263%/519%

The US markets have a grab bag of retail companies with better, more consistent historical return than CTC, including RH, NIKE, AAPL, HD, LOW… among many others.

#84 Robert Ash on 12.10.21 at 8:42 pm

Any shopping at Walmart, CT, Amazon, Princess Auto, Target, etc. means, you are purchasing something made in China, 85-100 % of the time. We as a country are Borrowing Money to profit a Country building Intercontinental Bomber capable runways, in short militarily equipment, for three strategic Coral Island locations, in the Pacific. China said they wouldn’t Militarize these Islands. Our leaders are having a back pat about their achievements, the latest being the passing of Gender conversion therapy. This is the second time, the Politicians, are celebrating, this awesome new law… I don’t understand our leaders, or their issues, but they don’t seem to be on the Ball… Why would a country that is profiting, and advancing so, quickly want to ensure Military Supremacy? The CPC must discuss their good fortune, dealing with the Western Democracies. Also a China fact…China historically never held Formosa, it was first noted and settled, by Dutch Sailors, in the 1500’s, but China wants this real estate as it strategically allows a firmer control of the China Sea and shipping lanes. Removes any democratic threat creep…No problem, when the supremacy is delivered to your doorstep. Now we accept insults, from their diplomats, on a regular basis. Don’t get it myself. If shipping lanes are controlled, then so are shipments, No?

#85 Maths are hard on 12.10.21 at 9:04 pm

I may have found part of the problem:

http://www.stationgossip.com/2021/12/somebody-should-tell-them.html

#86 fishman on 12.10.21 at 9:07 pm

I think the Jaguar is a woman Ponzie. She’s good, but her naturally developed, much practiced, passive/aggressive attack mode is hard to camouflage. For all you fellows graduating from cougars to the leopards & jaguars, these cat subspecies are smoother & less demanding, but still dangerous. Identifiable from cougars by their spots.

#87 Shawn allen on 12.10.21 at 9:18 pm

Sail away, I trust you mean CTC.A

It’s at 9 times earnings Costco is 46 times. I own both. Costco is so powerful. Any time they open a store a traffic jam will result on opening week. If they build it we will come.

#88 Shawn allen on 12.10.21 at 9:26 pm

Capitalism and democracy and freedom has been the best system these past few hundred years as we were in a world of expanding knowledge and needed to indent ever more production and effort.

If we move into a world where we have far more than ample stuff produced and the bigger concern is burning out the climate and wrecking the earth then capitalism and democracy may not be the best system for that. Stay tuned. Things can change a lot in 100 or 200 years.

#89 Nonplused on 12.10.21 at 9:29 pm

#72 Chinadian Tire on 12.10.21 at 7:36 pm

Shawn Allen’s posts today sponsored by…

Canadian Tire.

Selling mostly Chinese made junk.

————————————

Well, I guess the difference is if you buy something at Canadian Tire, you are buying Chinese made junk from a Canadian store.

Whereas if you buy something at Costco, Target, Walmart, Home Depot, etc. you are buying Chinese made junk from an American store. How is that better?

Don’t get me wrong, I shop at all the stores, including Costco. But if you need one of them things you screw into a light socket to convert it to a plug for the new shop light you bought at Costco, you have to go to Canadian Tire to get it. Or maybe Home Depot. Costco does not stock very many items, mostly big ticket trendy stuff. Need some hardware? Not at Costco you don’t. A blade for your table saw? Nope. A 2-man pack-packing tent of reasonable quality? Nope. Thins means Canadian Tire has much higher overhead per square foot because they are stocking a vastly larger inventory of stuff that doesn’t move all that quickly and has prices often less than a dollar.

I don’t use their auto services though. Nothing but bad luck.

#90 Satori on 12.10.21 at 9:43 pm

#17 Linda on 12.10.21 at 4:54 pm
While I have been doing my best to limit my shopping exposure during the time of year when ‘good will to all men’ is noticeably absent (just get between a desired object & the shopping horde to understand what I mean)
___________

Daily I pass by the local food bank, lined up with Teslas, Audis, Cadillac SUVs and my “good will to men” is out the window.

#91 leebow on 12.10.21 at 9:46 pm

#84 Robert Ash

I seem to be somewhat of a Lenin quote guy here. So here is another one for all comrades.

“Capitalists of the world and their governments, in their pursuit of conquering the Soviet market […] will provide loans that will allow us to support the Communist Party in their countries and, by supplying us with the materials and technology we need, will restore our military industry necessary for our future victorious attacks against our suppliers. In other words, they will work hard to prepare their own suicide!” – V.I. Lenin

#92 Garth's Son Drake on 12.10.21 at 9:53 pm

Relax, it is Justinflation.

#93 AM in MN on 12.10.21 at 9:59 pm

#24 centarl banks are thieves on 12.10.21 at 5:07 pm
“Inflation destroys the currency.”

Central Banks destroy currency. Inflation is nothing more than debasement of the currency by Central Banks.

supply chains are not the issue.
covid is not the issue.
gas prices and food prices are not the issue.
shortages are not the issue.

the issue is corrupt central bankers.

—————————————————–

In general agreement, but to add a few points;

– Covid isn’t the issue, but the government shutdowns and travel restrictions are. They have caused much unnecessary economic ruin and hurt school aged children, especially of the lower classes.

– The central bankers are only as corrupt as the elected leaders allow them to be. In general, the temptation is too much for politicians to avoid. This is why the Founders of the US were so opposed to central banks, and adopted a gold and silver standard…which turned out to be a mistake, needed to be a single standard, gold.

– The proper target rate of inflation according to the bible should be zero %. You should conduct your business using units of honest weight and measure.

– The Bank of England built a world empire based on two centuries of a gold standard, zero inflation.

– The supply chain crisis (try and buy heavy industrial equipment…and get it shipped) is largely caused by massive free printed money paying people not to work, and chasing finite real property. Eventually the prices of real goods and services will adjust higher.

Wait until all the public sector workers start demanding big pay raises…chaos coming!

#94 Doug t on 12.10.21 at 10:02 pm

Canada is down 18k long haul drivers – the U.S. down 80k – ocean per container freight rates are off the chart historically- one major carrier we use for freight in western Canada is sitting on 400 trailers full in their yards in B.C. – one of their major customers, Costco, last week wanted them to bring 40 trailers from B.C. To Ontario, the regular freight cost is 3k and Costco offered them 9k and they said “sorry no can do” – the freight industry in North America is in shambles – I have dealt with carriers from coast to coast for the last 25 years and many tell me this will be the new norm for at least the next 3 years

#95 Sail Away on 12.10.21 at 10:04 pm

#87 Shawn allen on 12.10.21 at 9:18 pm

Sail away, I trust you mean CTC.A

It’s at 9 times earnings Costco is 46 times. I own both. Costco is so powerful. Any time they open a store a traffic jam will result on opening week. If they build it we will come.

——–

Yep, CTC.A. Costco has returned 10x Canadian Tire in the last 5 years. I find very little of interest on the TSX due to the extreme discrepancy of return. Home country bias is a financial future killer.

#96 mike from mtl on 12.10.21 at 10:12 pm

#84 Robert Ash on 12.10.21 at 8:42 pm
Any shopping at Walmart, CT, Amazon, Princess Auto, Target, etc. means, you are purchasing something made in China, 85-100 % of the time.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly.

The headline complaint is “supply chain issues” but the real problem is just-in-time MIC crap that is actually coming back to bite us. Factories are all screwed up over local materials, power outages, lockdowns, you name it, the Wallmart model of cheap container junk is so 2000s.

The only truly ‘supply chain’ issues here are food products from the US & further south, US building materials, paper & petro products. Canada manufactures squat apart from mortgages, condos, plants from the ground and expensive tar.

#97 Don Guillermo on 12.10.21 at 10:55 pm

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 7:55 pm
#54 Don Guillermo on 12.10.21 at 6:15 pm
#20 The Jaguar on 12.10.21 at 4:58 pm
Mercy. I usually end with that, but if you want to talk supply chain issues try being where The Jaguar is currently camping out. Good thing the beach is so incredibly beautiful and appears to be no shortage of rum. Yikes! Time to meet up for pre-dinner cocktails. Make mine a ‘Presidente’
******************************************
Jag, glad you made it safe and are enjoying the beautiful Caribbean waters and tasty rums! ¡Salud!
——————————
Why would he not be safe?
The news about beach shootings getting to you?
*************************************
I understand your concern. The terrible story where the lady was badly beaten in Playa del Carmen by a Canadian. Hopefully it wasn’t the same guy that stalked her in Vancouver. Don’t be so worried PP, Jag is in a totally different country.

#98 David on 12.10.21 at 11:04 pm

It might be the case that algorithm driven supply chains are so fine tuned and complex that when there are there are even minor disruptions they simply can not solve their own problems and collapse inward.

#99 Sam Bergdorf on 12.10.21 at 11:14 pm

Not backing down to Chinas outright threats is worth having fewer kettles on the shelf. Remember when Canada used to make things here? Remember when Pierre Trudeau gutted Canadian manufacturing during the first great wave of globalization in the name of sustainable development? He and his EU bunko artists began a thirty year plan to develop Chinas industrial capacity. Mao was a happy camper. Western workers lost jobs by the millions. Ping Pong diplomacy has turned into dire threats and outright kidnapping.

The Chinese effect on our housing is spelled out in this article and the writer posts the boots to the politically correct deniers.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/china-envoy-says-kovrig-spavor-confessed-to-crimes-warns-against-rejecting-huawei

Yes, canola might take a hit, but no one in Sask votes for Trudeau anyway. So why is Justin still on his knees when an increasingly dangerous China is at the door? Is the Five Eye strategy along with our allies more important than a reliance on China? What is Justin trying to do? Is his strategy to separate Canada from our tradition allies to “replace us” as he has stated to do?

#100 Doug in London on 12.10.21 at 11:27 pm

While I do see price inflation, which is higher than the “official” rate of 4% or thereabouts, I don’t see any real supply chain disruptions. Oh sure, some items in stores are out of stock but most aren’t. Is it because of my close proximity to that major transportation route, namely the 401? I have no idea. Maybe I’ll look into it after getting my booster shot.

#101 The Jaguar on 12.10.21 at 11:52 pm

Saludos DonG.
Tell Ponzi not to worry. I have two bodyguards from Vancouver who watch over and will protect me. And of course I can always rely on my well developed passive aggressive attack mode skills. Who knew?

Fredo, I now know it was you. You broke my heart.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.10.21 at 11:55 pm

#95 Sail Away on 12.10.21 at 10:04 pm
#87 Shawn allen on 12.10.21 at 9:18 pm

Sail away, I trust you mean CTC.A

It’s at 9 times earnings Costco is 46 times. I own both. Costco is so powerful. Any time they open a store a traffic jam will result on opening week. If they build it we will come.

——–

Yep, CTC.A. Costco has returned 10x Canadian Tire in the last 5 years. I find very little of interest on the TSX due to the extreme discrepancy of return. Home country bias is a financial future killer.
——————
Typical Sailo point of view.
Oh forgot, he’s from South Dakota, and can think past his nose.
What he forgets is:
That Costco Canada is an excellent employer.
They treat their employees with respect.
They pay their employees living wages and benefits.
Said employees pay taxes and thus contribute to a prosperous Canada, that even double dippers can enjoy.

#103 Valleyboy on 12.11.21 at 12:00 am

Turkey raised rates to fight inflation that went well. Venezuela raised raised rates to fight inflation and how’s that working.

#104 AB on 12.11.21 at 12:10 am

#99 Sam Bergdorf
Spot on! Junior and chums have very limited character formation. He is a globalist fool. China is a danger. The world is not all ponies, sunshine and rainbows. My spouse and I know who our true friends are. Thanks be to God for the USA, the last beacon of freedom.

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.21 at 12:12 am

#98 David on 12.10.21 at 11:04 pm
It might be the case that algorithm driven supply chains are so fine tuned and complex that when there are there are even minor disruptions they simply can not solve their own problems and collapse inward.
——————-
You may unto something.
The Japanese invented “Justin” Time manufacturing in the late 70s to cut down on inventory costs.
This, of course, is causing major pains, particularly in the Auto industry.
I hear that VW will stick with Just-In-Time, as the cost of rebuilding storage and increased inventory costs are just too much.
Another good example of unintended consequenses.

#106 short horses on 12.11.21 at 4:55 am

I love that this is a cat blog now. I started living with a cat about five years ago, about the same time I started reading this blog. It took a few years, but I eventually warmed to cats; I’m happy to see this blog has, too.

#107 under the radar on 12.11.21 at 5:49 am

Soviet Union and Ukraine= A major fault line. I am thinking about Munich 1938 . Pretext of Russians being persecuted etc .
Will Putin invade , could be a spark that lights a big fire which could change a whole lot of things.

#108 Wrk.dover on 12.11.21 at 6:46 am

Re: the Jaguar; after my first night of drinking quart bottles of El Presidente from D.R. in Grand Turk, back in ’83, I awoke with a very dry mouth and told my wife to “impeach the Presidente!”.

My first ever scuba dive, an hour later, did wonders for the hangover.

#109 Do we have all the facts on 12.11.21 at 7:54 am

The two largest contributors to Canada’s current $2 billion trade surplus are oil and gas exports to the US and the export of automobiles and auto parts to the US. Recently the US government announced their intent to offer a grant of $12,500 to American consumers for the purchase of an electric vehicle made in the US from parts made in the US. Hmmmm!!

I will be very interested to see if Chrystia has a plan to deal with the implications of this initiative on Canada when she maps out her view of the future on December 14. Free trade seems to have a new player.

Any thoughts?

#110 Phylis on 12.11.21 at 8:19 am

#109 Do we have all the facts on 12.11.21 at 7:54 am
Chrystia will stand on a box and turn the mike over to the environment where it will dictate that we too must buy electric cars made in the states. Oopsie, she already did that.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.21 at 8:25 am

@#109 Do we have….
“I will be very interested to see if Chrystia has a plan to deal with the implications of this initiative on Canada when she maps out her view of the future on December 14. Free trade seems to have a new player.”

+++

Ahhh Yes, the posturing polyglot seems to have acquired Trudeau’s flair for the dramatic through osmosis or as a soft tissue brain injury due to her constant head nodding.
Hyperventilating or scowling while holding ones breath after announcing a new govt initiative seems to be the Liberal way these days.
Somewhat amusing.

Either way.
Our vertically challenged, non finance, Finance Minister should be careful.
Poking the US Govt Trade Bear in the waistband might have unforeseen consequences.

#112 Felix on 12.11.21 at 8:27 am

#106 short horses on 12.11.21 at 4:55 am
I love that this is a cat blog now. I started living with a cat about five years ago, about the same time I started reading this blog. It took a few years, but I eventually warmed to cats; I’m happy to see this blog has, too.

—————

Your superior intelligence shows through. Congratulations.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.21 at 8:39 am

As our fearless Liberal leader threatens China with the weakest ultimatum yet.
“If we’re not invited! We’re not sending our bureaucrats!”

https://youtu.be/dEnEu16yA1o?list=PLUgqTrlOvAcqipHfLQylxuGSWFdGmyak_

I’m sure the Chinese are quaking in Beijing.

While real people are asking the world to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2022-protests/tibetan-students-lock-themselves-to-olympic-rings-to-protest-beijing-games-idUSKBN2IQ09G

WHY are we even considering going to the Olympics this time around.

Two of our citizens were illegally arrested, illegally imprisoned, possibly tortured…. and released after almost two years…..just as a Huawei executive was allowed out of “house arrest” from a mansion in Vancouver’s richest neighborhoods…and flown back to China to a heroes welcome.
Imprisoned in Shaughnessy…the horror.

Do we really need another gold medal in hockey awarded by the Lords of the Rings?

Time to boycott the Olympics and keep ALL our athletes home.
Lest some of them get arrested and used as bargaining chips.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.21 at 8:53 am

A newer , more addictive, more lethal derivative of fentanyl has hit the streets.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/12/10/new-fentanyl-big-story-podcast/

And it barely gets a mention in the news because….. people have been hearing the same “record breaking overdose death rates” for years……?

#115 westcdn on 12.11.21 at 9:25 am

When I was young, I grew up in the Campbell River area on the mainline named Port Neville. It was an area where rain seemed to live. A hundred miles south it was more sunny.

A bit of history: https://oceanecology.ca/wp/2016/09/05/a-bit-of-history/

#116 Steven Rowlandson on 12.11.21 at 10:05 am

Did you buy Canadian Garth?

#117 Dharma Bum on 12.11.21 at 10:12 am

Canadian Tire is like a massive dollar store.

They are a giant convenience store.

A wide variety of stuff, much of it of marginal quality.

It’s very successful, and does fit a niche, for sure.

One thing that they do deserve a lot of credit for is that, ever since I can remember – since the late 60’s at least – they have provided employment opportunities to the mentally challenged.

Any Canadian Tire employee I’ve ever had to deal with was not playing with a full deck. They make HomeDepot employees look like rocket scientists.

#118 Stone on 12.11.21 at 10:30 am

# 90 Satori on 12.10.21 at 9:43 pm
#17 Linda on 12.10.21 at 4:54 pm
While I have been doing my best to limit my shopping exposure during the time of year when ‘good will to all men’ is noticeably absent (just get between a desired object & the shopping horde to understand what I mean)
___________

Daily I pass by the local food bank, lined up with Teslas, Audis, Cadillac SUVs and my “good will to men” is out the window.

———

Actually, I used to volunteer at the food bank as well as a soup kitchen for over a one year stretch 2-3 times a week. Your comment about the cars is accurate. Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Jaguar, etc. No Teslas as this was pre Tesla. Why are they coming to the food bank and soup kitchen?

It totally disgusted me. Walking in with their fancy pricey duds on. And rude, demanding and condescending. We knew the few who really needed the help but the rest were dirt just taking advantage of the goodwill of others.

I stopped volunteering after that. I now regard all these type of organizations as corrupt. They will accept anyone and are only interested in growing their “customer” base and begging for more money from the ignorant public who don’t know what’s really going on.

Personally, they should all be shut down. They create a cycle of dependence that is totally unhealthy. I know that my opinion on the subject does hurt the few who really need the help but the vast majority who go there do so to be able to maintain a lifestyle that is not sustainable and is unrealistic.

Please think about that when you thoughtlessly donate money to a “charitable” organization to make yourself feel good for “doing your part”. Spend a little bit of time volunteering there before handing over your money. If you can see where the funds are really going, by all means, donate. And let everyone else know as those are the organizations that deserve consideration.

#119 DON on 12.11.21 at 11:19 am

#103 Valleyboy on 12.11.21 at 12:00 am
Turkey raised rates to fight inflation that went well. Venezuela raised raised rates to fight inflation and how’s that working.

***********

Turkey has been cutting rates for the past year…due to Politics. Their dic tator wants to be re-elected. As their currency sinks.

#120 Anotherfoodbank on 12.11.21 at 12:21 pm

#118

Completely agree with what you said. My spouse had a coworker who would dine out every day at lunch and then stop on her way home at the food bank to bring food home for her 2 kids. To me that is like stealing.

Also, the biggest push for collecting food is at Christmas time when these grocery stores have somewhat increased their prices. If it is true that food banks have no or little criteria for who can use their services that is a shame.

#121 Lenny on 12.11.21 at 12:25 pm

“Over 157,000 new hires last month. The most vacant, unfilled jobs in Canadian history. Wages, salaries, incomes – up and up.”

Right-O. Except for all of those who cannot check off at least 2 boxes in the 2-page Gender and Diversity part in the 3 page job application.

#122 wendi1 on 12.11.21 at 1:53 pm

I find myself uneasy in the malls these days, and supply chain problems make it no fun.

But I see a lot of stuff is available on Kijiji – got my husband’s oh-so-important 20 oz beer sleeves from there, and am going back to get my bestie a crock pot for Christmas.

You can do exchanges outside, pay over the internet, and help save the landfills.

#123 Dragonfly 58 on 12.11.21 at 2:06 pm

Incomes up and up. Except for a good chunk of those of us who are retired. Many OK household income situations are rapidly slipping into a just barely getting by situation. Yes, we could sacrifice out current $ situation, stick any strictly non essential money into investments and probably in a decade or so be in a better position. But in a decade or so many of us will be … well, OLD.
My Father sold his house several years ago here in Langley. He rather pointedly observed that for the first time in his life he actually had a fair bit of money in the bank. But his next remark said it all ” I am 82 years old, what am I going to do with it ? Buy myself a new Golf Club ? Past the age where more money made any difference in his life. Whats the point of having a Million $ in the bank at 82 if up to 81 you just barely managed to pay the bills ? Long past the point where he could he could do any serious travel or recreational activities.

#124 Satori on 12.11.21 at 10:44 pm

#118 Stone on 12.11.21 at 10:30 am

Food Bank – They should all be shut down. They create a cycle of dependence that is totally unhealthy. I know that my opinion on the subject does hurt the few who really need the help but the vast majority who go there do so to be able to maintain a lifestyle that is not sustainable and is unrealistic.
_______________________

And all I do was drive by, I always wondered about then…Thank you Stone for the Sage advice.

I have no kids so donating money, if and when I am older will never be to hospitals or food banks. I work in a hospital and we have employees sitting $1800.00 Designer Office chairs, and the money that goes to cigarettes/drugs/addictions would BLOW any person’s mind. Yes, your tax money pays for Heroin to tread Heroin addicts. Daily, managing the dose, well, but of course… ??

The kits that we hand out to help save a person from drug overdoes (naloxone) are $70… we give them to street people daily, 80 kits easy, and they keep the needle and throw out the kit, which is strewn all over the sidewalk and ditches.

The mis-management of funds is absolutely unreal. It wasn’t until I worked in a hospital did I realize the colossal waste. For that I would need a *$)*# Book!!! Front-line Finance… I see it all, and it astounds me that no one watches over this stuff. Its just ‘paid in full’ no questions asked.

Thanks for sharing.