Blood in the streets

You will hear more about this.

Forty-seven years ago, out of the blue, a thunderbolt hit the Ontario real estate market. The government got fed up with rising prices. Bitching constituents. Political heat. Despite the fact five-year mortgages cost 10.9%, house prices were ramping. In Toronto the average property sale price was just over $50,000. It was an outrage.

So in Ontario the Conservative-dominated legislature announced a speculation tax. Bang. Just like that on the 9th of April. Flippers would have to send 50% of their gain to the government. Here is what the 30-page document – which chilled the housing market for 11 years – looked like.

It’s in the news again this week as a Toronto councilor vows to push the province into a repetition of history. This time the average local property sells for $1.1 million and households earn $110,000 (before taxes). So in 1974 politicians sprang into action when it cost four times income to buy property, but in 2021 there’s been no tax action at 10 times. Meanwhile the decades-long collapse in interest rates has resulted in 2% mortgages and more than a trillion new dollars in home loan debt.

Here’s an interesting statement offered by prominent real estate lawyer Bob Aaron when the CBC spoke with him about that day four decades ago:

“That was April 9, 1974 — the worst day of my career,” said Aaron, who remembers fielding endless calls the next day. They were from buyers trying to get out of purchases and from sellers wanting to make sure the deals were still going through. “There were years of litigation after that. There was … blood in the streets when people saw the equity in their home was just evaporating overnight.”

Why has the housing market not been hammered back into reality by politicians in this new decade, when valuations have blown past every measure of affordability?

You know. They know. We all know. Residential real estate is an investment class now, not a place to live. The financialization was made complete when the feds allowed 5% down payments, let people use RSP money to buy properties, backstopped the banks and oversaw the drop in mortgage prices to 1.99%. That’s when the fiction really took hold that everybody could and should own, and houses always go up. A corollary to that was, ‘the government will never let rates rise,’ plus ‘they’ll do everything they can to keep the party going.’

The result: in 1974 real estate was 2% of the economy. Now it’s about 20%. During the 2008-9 credit crisis and again during Covid, interest rates were allowed to plunge and borrowing was encouraged as part of the economic recovery. In essence, politicians were offloading risk in order to leverage homebuyers. And people took the bait.

The psychological result is that we’re now a nation fully invested in the meme that a house, and only a house, is the sole way the common man (sorry, person) can profit and survive. Housing, we’re told, is a human right. And so governments – right up to the election campaign three months ago – pushed the agenda of properties-for-all. Thus we are about to get the FHSA, an enhanced shared equity mortgage plan, a rent-to-own scheme, a fatter newbie tax credit to pay closing costs, billions more for new units and a 25% spike in the taxpayer-insured debt limit (to $1.25 million).

In the US, same thing. The lessons of houses-for-all policies pursued by Clinton and Bush, which resulted in the 2006 real estate crash plus the 2008 credit crisis and Wall Street bank failures, have been lost. The Biden administration has committed itself to this: “through our regulated entities it is our duty to ensure that all Americans have equal access to safe, decent and affordable housing.”

Does that sound like a right?

In Canada, the Liberal government won office largely on this commitment: “Homes for everyone. As a country, we need to support Canadians in their goal of becoming homeowners. That’s why our Liberal plan will help renters become owners, help young Canadians afford a down payment faster, and help them reduce the closing costs that come with purchasing a home. By helping our young people unlock homeownership, we will grow the middle class and keep moving Canada forward for everyone.”

Here’s the vid:

But is any of this realistic? Should everyone get a house, regardless of their income, assets or financial stability? Policies pursued so far have made homes cost at least 10 times more than people earn, catapulted housing debt to over $1 trillion and launched millions of households on a one-horse investment strategy. Just imagine if what happened in 2006 in the United States were to occur here. Prices went down 32% nationally and in certain areas by 70%. It was an utter disaster – all in the cause of boosting the home ownership rate.

Meanwhile, did you hear about the new listing in Toronto? A strip of land 8 inches wide. Yeah, inches. The asking price is the same as for a complete home on the day the land spec tax hit Ontario. Forty-nine thousand nine hundred.

If you can’t see what’s coming, you will wear it.

About the picture: “Garth, here is little YoYo, the American Cocker Spaniel, enjoying the first real bit of snow here in Ottawa, all he needs now is a cat or squirrel or a ball to chase to make his day. We are enjoying every day with our B&D portfolio, glad that we planned to be financially ok in our “older years”, thanks for all you do to help all of us so that we don’t have to survive on cat food, especially little YoYo!”

122 comments ↓

#1 Anonymous on 12.06.21 at 2:40 pm

Whats coming is a seller exodus on higher rates. The catalyst will be higher rates, not policy.

#2 Dolce Vita on 12.06.21 at 2:41 pm

+729.63

2038 CET

I’d say not a bad investment class either.

#3 Joe on 12.06.21 at 2:41 pm

“In Toronto the average property sale price was just over $50,000 and the average income was $70,000 (the Canadian average as $49,000).”
Are both of these numbers adjusted for inflation? That income to average price seems off if not.
No need to actually post this comment just want to clarify and a Thank you for all the writing over the years

Income in constant 1995 dollars. Not inflation-adjusted. House price current to 1974.- Garth

#4 TurnerNation on 12.06.21 at 2:43 pm

We pay high taxes for all the stuff we get like a Government-owned commuter railway. OOPS they fired competent staff. Just another day in a Former First World County. Yep CV Can do this too

https://www.gotransit.com/en/trip-planning/go-service-updates
Train cancellations December 6th
As a result of a staff shortage, there are 5 train cancellations Monday afternoon:



– Everything is upside down in the New System!

– AIRPORTS are turned into no-expenses spared medical tracking and testing sites (control over travel, natch)
– HOSPITALS in every Former First World Country are hopelessly backlogged, care is still rationed – as the global governments shut them down back in March 2020; staff are being Fired, and those field hospitals were torn down.
“But the the hospital capacity guys!”

“”The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that air travellers returning to Canada from countries other than the United States should be ready to isolate pending a negative on-arrival COVID-19 test result…”All travellers should expect to be tested upon arrival and should be ready to isolate….Airports have been randomly testing passengers upon arrival for months, and Mr. Duclos said the testing capacity at airports has increased 60 per cent since Wednesday.””(Stockwatch.com)


— Wow! Traveller’s account of Calgary airport. They were read their rights and offered a lawyer then sent under high security to a locked facility. All for arriving in Kanada. So close to normalcy guys!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FF5onGGVEAM6CK9?format=jpg&name=900×900

#5 IHCTD9 on 12.06.21 at 2:44 pm

Trudeau gonna ride till he can’t no mo’.

Riots in the streets, or an economic mushroom cloud. No in between’s.

Thanks Liberals.

#6 cheese on 12.06.21 at 2:45 pm

Not a bad return on 8″ of land, they paid $5,000 back in 2013 .

#7 Mark on 12.06.21 at 2:52 pm

#3 Joe on 12.06.21 at 2:41 pm
Are both of these numbers adjusted for inflation? That income to average price seems off if not.
——
Bro. the very next sentence answers your question:

“So in 1974 politicians sprang into action when it cost 1.4 times income to buy property”

#8 Roial1 on 12.06.21 at 2:56 pm

Well Garth, Got my snowblower out and test started it last night. (It does not snow on V.I.) Ask the tourist bureau.
Got up today to 4 inches of the white stuff.

As for the housing price problem, Who cares? It is a tempest in The cities but out here in the sticks, Oh! it is also a tempest here. It is DEFINITELY time to raise interest rates and BIG time, time to tax the speculators.
I can not see why they have not been seen as (almost) a criminal robbery of the state.
What ever happened to the principal residency rule?

#9 Lee on 12.06.21 at 2:57 pm

Isn’t there a point where there aren’t enough renters because there are too many owners? Or will immigration, as agents promise, always fill that gap? Because if it does, this can and will go on forever. Sorry to say so for those looking to get in.

#10 Dolce Vita on 12.06.21 at 3:19 pm

EU Bug Porn

Austria K-Mart

“Attention Vax Shoppers, €7200 fine by Feb now at the incredible price of only a €600 fine if not vaxd by Mar. 15”

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/erster-entwurf-wie-das-impfpflichtsgesetz-aussehen-soll/401830498

—–

Dr Matt Prescott asked this today on Twitter:

“Who has impressed you during the COVID pandemic?”

1. MOTHER NATURE, hands down.

Of course ALL falling over themselves praising NHS, Politicians, Teachers, Neighbors, themselves, etc.

Hopefully, much sooner than later, #1 becomes:

21st C Medicine.

—–

Belgium, Austria, Denmark riot/protests. France closing stuff down again like nightclubs and ultra right wing Presidential candidate Éric Zemmour gets slapped around in Paris (good). Sweden closing down nightclubs too and writes about dead anti-vaxxers. UK Health Secretary confirms Omicron spreading in the community (81,591 new cases today per real time ZOE, ‘ya think?).

No biggie.

Just another Covid Day on Planet Europa.

Please Europa, DON’T send your COLD and COVID to Italia.

#11 Froggy on 12.06.21 at 3:23 pm

It will end, nothing goes up forever
Iike this so hang on tight ,because from the looks of it we’ll be the first country to go through a housing ponzi correction any bets like no5hing seen before. Canadians are in the top 5 countrys to invest there money talk leverage my gid yhis dussie suprise not many people relize it. But don’t worry we’ll let in a bigger amount of imagrants so they can buy at the bottom 5-8 years later

#12 IHCTD9 on 12.06.21 at 3:31 pm

#9 Lee on 12.06.21 at 2:57 pm

…Or will immigration, as agents promise, always fill that gap? Because if it does, this can and will go on forever. Sorry to say so for those looking to get in.
_____

I don’t think immigration is that bulletproof. These folks come here with stars in their eyes and great hopes. But if the reality turns out to be renting a basement and working 80 hrs a week for life – the old country may not look so bad anymore. They’ll just go home – we already lose 35-40% of all immigrants depending on who’s report you read.

After enough newcomers return home stripped of their life savings with nothing to show for it, word will eventually get out.

#13 millmech on 12.06.21 at 3:31 pm

Wow, so one could subdivide lots into 8″ strips, up she goes some more!

#14 Phylis on 12.06.21 at 3:34 pm

#6 cheese on 12.06.21 at 2:45 pm
Not a bad return on 8″ of land, they paid $5,000 back in 2013 .
Xxxxxx
Spaghetti farmers will bid on 1” pieces of land.

#15 Quintilian on 12.06.21 at 3:39 pm

“If you can’t see what’s coming, you will wear it.”

Here is what I see coming:

A real estate crash, this time it won’t be from the financing component; it will be from the price portion.
And interest rates will stay below inflation to mitigate some of the fall out.

#16 yvr_lurker on 12.06.21 at 3:43 pm

But is any of this realistic? Should everyone get a house, regardless of their income, assets or financial stability? Policies pursued so far have made homes cost at least 10 times more than people earn, catapulted housing debt to over $1 trillion and launched millions of households on a one-horse investment strategy.

———–
Is it unreasonable for a young couple(without big gifts from their families) in their 30s with over 300K per year family income to purchase something remotely adequate even in our major cities to provide stability and roots for having a family? Never was a problem 20 years ago. If this is the new reality and if the powers at be are okay with this reality, it is time to move on… overseas, USA, wherever…..

#17 twofatcats on 12.06.21 at 3:43 pm

Dec 6 Today’s flipped ‘principal residences’

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/K8OgYBVBl6oYJmG2/324-VICTORIA-Street-S-Kitchener-N2M3A3-40189623

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/NkKJ3Jda2J1yd4V6/78-LAKESHORE-Road-St-Catharines-40085135
https://www.zolo.ca/st-catharines-real-estate/78-lakeshore-road#sold-history

https://www.zolo.ca/welland-real-estate/88-cardinal-crescent#sold-history

#18 Dogman01 on 12.06.21 at 3:44 pm

Can it happen here?

About 2008-10 my retired parents did full time in a 5th Wheel Trailer, 6 Months in Southwest USA and then 6 months back in Canada. Often speeding a few weeks in my spare bedroom waiting for the water lines at the trailer park to thaw out late April.

With the Canadian Dollar near par and Garth preaching about the sweet Real Estate Deals in the USA I suggested to my old man that he look at a house.

So they did, Maricopa Arizona, a 1600 Sq Ft Bungalow built in 2007got it for …..wait for it….. $69,000 Canadian!!!!!
Originally owner bought for $196,000, then foreclosed and owned by the bank.

Check Zillow; Cyprus Lane Maricopa Arizona. https://www.zillow.com/ Look at price history and you will see the true story.

The next block over their were half-built homes abandoned by builders used for practice training by the local Police Force.
Fast forward a decade and they have a Fitness Center, pools and a nice park just behind them and property values run about $300,000 US.

I kid you not….the self-correction mechanism of an actual free market.

If it happens here on that scale it will be complete devastation, but it needs to. “Think of the Children!”

#19 Shawn allen on 12.06.21 at 3:46 pm

Mistake alert?

There is no possible way that average Toronto incomes in 1974 were $70k or anything close to that. That has to be an inflation adjusted number while the house price mentioned does not look inflation adjusted. The article and conclusions look perfectly fine. Just the average income can’t be right.

#20 vanreal on 12.06.21 at 3:48 pm

Shouldn’t the numbers in paragraph 1 read that the average income was 50,000 and the average house price was 70,000?

#21 Forget About It on 12.06.21 at 3:49 pm

I never worry about the prices of Rolls Royces because I am happy riding a bike.

#22 Dogman01 on 12.06.21 at 3:49 pm

#105 W.Smith on 12.06.21 at 12:27 am

Greater Fool Indeed..

“Day and night the telescreens bruised your ears with statistics proving that people today had more food, more clothes, better houses, better recreations—that they lived longer, worked shorter hours, were bigger, healthier, stronger, happier, more intelligent, better educated, than the people of fifty years ago.”

– George Orwell, ‘1984’.

The young need to rise up!
——————————-

I have noticed the same thing, when compared to 1984 in Canada our middle class is on a steep decline, with our MSM acting as the “opiate of the masses”.

#23 Shawn allen on 12.06.21 at 3:51 pm

Okay I see he note about income being 1995 dollars so the 1974 actual would be way less. Price to income still low perhaps well in see 3 but not 1.4

#24 Leichdiener on 12.06.21 at 3:53 pm

“If you can’t see what’s coming, you will wear it.” Good line. Better than “Eat lunch or be lunch”.

#25 X on 12.06.21 at 3:57 pm

IF any gov’t were to intoroduce a bill like this, now would be the time. Yes, due to house rpices, but also now so many businesses are looking for workers. Anyone who may find themselves out of a job due to a RE slowdown as a result, would have some decent options in the workforce waiting for them.

#26 Penny Henny on 12.06.21 at 3:58 pm

Niagara Region Real Estate numbers for November

Year over Year

New listings 664-751 up 13.1%
Number of Sales 699-669 down 4.3%
Average days on market 29-18 down 37.9%
Benchmark Price $519,300-$701,700 up 35.1%

Kind of a mixed bag. More listing but less sales, days on market way down but prices have skyrocketed. My personal feeling is if it’s priced well it’s gone almost immediately but there are also those who have unrealistic asking prices.

link

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/public/Stats/2021%20NOV%20Monthly%20Stats%20and%20Media%20Release.pdf

#27 IHCTD9 on 12.06.21 at 4:07 pm

Right now we have the single most ineffective and likely most incompetent government in Canadian history. No tough love will be forthcoming from Trudeau, who is always standing by with a tube of polysporin for every little FTHB scrape. The BoC is right behind with Band-Aids for the economy.

She a go uppa till she a go boom.

#28 Griffith on 12.06.21 at 4:10 pm

I really don’t care about being a homeowner if prices are so crazy high. I just can’t wrap my head around owning a home for these kinds of prices.

Look at a car, it has a huge amount of technology and refinement built in to it. Costs you less than $100k. For only $25k you can get a sedan that talks to your iPhone, has heating, air conditioning, heated seats, a back-up camera, the locks are electrified, essentially “smart” locks, etc.

But for 40 times that price (that is four times ten) you get basically the same thing on , just bigger, some dirt and a lot of drywall, with some plumbing, but locks aren’t powered, no camera built in, seats aren’t heated, maybe won’t have air conditioning. Usually comes with crap appliances that won’t last 10 years, probably has asbestos in the walls if it’s old enough. It also has no engine or wheels to move it around, it is stuck in one spot. Plus, to own it you have to pay a whole whack of property taxes.

Makes. No. Sense. For what you get, houses are a massive, insane rip off.

#29 John Doe on 12.06.21 at 4:11 pm

Is that 8 inch wide strip of land being sold by Mr Honest Realtor?

You got his phone number Garth? It’s FOMO, ya know….

#30 Comrade on 12.06.21 at 4:12 pm

Housing for all, coming by a popular demand. Rates, mortgages, it is all irrelevant when our competent government makes sure we are all taken care of. What’s not to like. :) Enjoy comrades!

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2021/12/06/berlin-voted-to-seize-homes-from-corporate-landowners-should-toronto-do-the-same-to-make-cheaper-housing.html

#31 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 4:12 pm

When markets collapse, they sweep away everything in their path. ​

So, if your financial trees are planted in the avalanche’s path, this might be a good time to relocate them.

Don’t become a cautionary tale.

#32 Quintilian on 12.06.21 at 4:16 pm

Garth, for the sake of fairness, you should also post the the Conservatives ads/platform relating to housing for bribe comparison.

Theirs wa quite a piece of fiction as well.

Never have I heard “housing bubble” from the Cons, or refernence to artificially suppressed interest rates by the central bank, or the courrpted stacking of the deck by CMHC.

Has anyone?

#33 Stoph on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm

Pierre Poilievre grilling Chrystia Freeland on real estate inflation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PV6wdm0FpY

PS: Covid vaccines aren’t just good for avoiding infection from Covid, they are also good for passing the buck on real estate inflation.

#34 wallflower on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm

A poll on the scrapers, e.g., TurnerNation/Dolce Vita is overdue.
Time to:
Block ’em
Toss ’em
Chuck ’em
Mostly adults consult these auspicious ‘pages’ so we already know how to read, scroll, consult media sources.

#35 Mr Fox on 12.06.21 at 4:23 pm

Just imagine if what happened in 2006 in the United States were to occur here. Prices went down 32% nationally and in certain areas by 70%.

That won’t happen here. Afaik, the banks don’t offer mortgages to people without work, to dogs or cats (remember “The Big Short”?). We don’t have the scheme that was running in US with the crappy MBS and CDOs. Besides, the banks are all insured! In case of a disaster they won’t feel the pain… not even slightly. Now, when the housing is 20% of the GDP, there is no other choice than keep the party going. Let’s be real and stop the wishful thinking.
The houses here are far far far away from a proper dip, and even further away from a crash. The only way to see the houses going down is if another industry will grow hugely to replace the negative GDP growth.
In the meantime more and more people are investing in RE. The realtors have the smug on their face, keep making crazy money and bring FOMO around potential buyers. The government comes up with crazy policies that will inflate the houses further. What is it not to love about Canada (except taxes… and winters)?

Recently I was having a couple of beers and a very honest talk with one of my friends. He came to Canada with his family in 2015, two years after me with my wife. All this time I was investing in a B&D portfolio, while he was investing only in housing. We’ve calculated where we stand: they are about 1M in equity ahead of us. Just because of housing.
His explanation was simple: “We are living in a city where the demand for rent was constantly growing along with rent payments. It was hard and scary to buy my first rental property, but now I want to buy more. The rent pays for the expenses and some. What’s not to like about that?”. And for those who wonder, only one of his rental properties have been bought recently with a low mortgage rate. The rest are at about 3%.

#36 wallflower on 12.06.21 at 4:26 pm

To:
#9 Lee on 12.06.21 at 2:57 pm
Isn’t there a point where there aren’t enough renters because there are too many owners? Or will immigration, as agents promise, always fill that gap?
==================================
Watch the unreported metrics; they are always the ones predicting the future.
I am watching the mom/pop rentals in my city. Listing volume going continually higher and days on market expanding into months, and if the locals cannot afford them (which they cannot), why would we presume the immigrants can afford them? because affordability is one thing but being able to prove you are tenant worthy is doubly difficult when you have zero record here and zero income – even if you have $100Ks+ in the bank.

#37 SunShowers on 12.06.21 at 4:34 pm

“Now You Can Own A Piece Of Toronto And Wait For Developers To Knock At Your Door!*”

*DISCLAIMER: Property may not be able to accommodate a door.

#38 Dolce vita and the rest please.. on 12.06.21 at 4:36 pm

DELETED

#39 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 4:46 pm

#21 Forget About It on 12.06.21 at 3:49 pm

I never worry about the prices of Rolls Royces because I am happy riding a bike.

——-

Fair enough.

One issue today is that so many people are eagerly buying bicycles for the price of a Rolls Royce.

It’s just a bike, for crying out loud!

#40 Joe on 12.06.21 at 4:54 pm

But Garth you always kept saying you’re not predicting a crash in GTA real estate. What gives now? Changed your tune.

#41 Faron on 12.06.21 at 5:03 pm

#117 westcdn on 12.06.21 at 8:03 am

I was wrong about natural gas price and commodities in general

Poker is a game. You do not want to be the sucker.

If you heard about it and acted on info from CNBC/BNN/ZeroHedge you are the sucker. Those outlets exist for a reason. This guy:

https://twitter.com/JTSEO9

Has been laughing to the bank w/re commodities for months now.

#31 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 4:12 pm

Yeah, TSLA does suck.

#42 renter in Surrey on 12.06.21 at 5:07 pm

What’s coming is NIRP, starter TH at $2.5mil, starter house at $5.0 mil, 100+ years amortization.
BOC will keep the party going.

#43 Squire on 12.06.21 at 5:10 pm

Chrystia Freeland is the next Kathlyn Wynne… it’s coming.

#44 TurnerNation on 12.06.21 at 5:15 pm

War on Small Business. Is this is how the Former First World Countries will further be shut down?

.NYC: Mayor de Blasio says he might require people to get COVID-19 booster shots if they want to attend concerts, restaurants and similar indoor venues, as the new Omicron variant continues to spread citywide (nypost.com)

.New York City to impose vaccine mandate for all private-sector employees starting December 27 – Mayor (@disclose.tv)


Yesterday’s blog said: “The national debt of $1.1 trillion will soon have doubled under just one prime minister”

Well the Consp. Theorist always said that the first world countries will get financially destroyed into a reset.
They also posit that we will lose land, property rights. Did ya notice what kicked off nationally that cold week in March 2020? The “Keep your rent” campaign. Out of nowhere.

Naw they wouldn’t would they?

[email protected] – This federal minister says it’s time to give land back to Indigenous peoples. What could that look like?

. @TorontoStar -Berlin voted to seize homes from corporate landowners. Should Toronto do the same to make cheaper housing?

— Science in Kanada. The passports were supposed to make us so healthy? Control over travel/movements – of course..

.”Ontario’s deputy premier says the province’s vaccine passport system will not be lifted next month due to the Omicron variant.” (@Canadafirstnews)

@tbncdnpoli – Chart: The biggest spike of covid-19 cases in Canada currently is in Quebec, which has one of the strictest vaccine passports in the country.
https://twitter.com/tbncdnpoli/status/1466503960274083846?t=qqPJbjedP0hAz4y2dqLLGw&s=19

@ryangerritsen -86% vaxxed in Canada and we have more travel restrictions now than this time last year when we had no vaccine.

.Toronto: East end school to close temporarily due to COVID-19 outbreak, 3 student cases and 1 staff case(cp24.com)

—–

Still predicting a severe Consumer Recession 2023-24. The trap is sprung.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, Dec. 6, edition that economists increasingly expect the Bank of Canada to begin raising interest rates as early as April” (stockwatch.com)

#45 Editrix on 12.06.21 at 5:19 pm

8 inches on the Danforth? I can’t see how the city will allow that. Looking at it, it appears to be a lot. Is the vendor subdividing the lot into 8 inch strips?

#46 Kevin on 12.06.21 at 5:20 pm

Look at this beauty!

Meanwhile, did you hear about the new listing in Toronto? A strip of land 8 inches wide. Yeah, inches. The asking price is the same as for a complete home on the day the land spec tax hit Ontario. Forty-nine thousand nine hundred.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/1060+Danforth+Ave,+Toronto,+ON+M4J+1M2/@43.6807647,-79.3356235,3a,75y,334.56h,90.12t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sM9FR69B1oV1Wrz4wsPppRQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!4m5!3m4!1s0x89d4cc878f4ef423:0x41c013799c67f590!8m2!3d43.6810185!4d-79.3356581

#47 Linda on 12.06.21 at 5:20 pm

Little Yo-yo looks to be wearing an outsize karakul hat:)

The USA statement about housing doesn’t say it is a ‘right’ exactly. What is does say is that the government will strive to provide ‘equal access’. Sounds rather Constitutional, as in ‘life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness’. The founders not being quite so naive as to try to promise folks would actually BE happy.

#48 SW on 12.06.21 at 5:25 pm

#34 wallflower on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm
“A poll on the scrapers, e.g., TurnerNation/Dolce Vita is overdue….”

Calm yourself.

#49 jimmy zhao on 12.06.21 at 5:26 pm

Use that 8″ strip of property as a dog run for Chihuahuas.

#50 Andrei on 12.06.21 at 5:44 pm

The one foot wide lot is a pure call option on future development. Sensationalist media attention to it (unfortunately reflected in the blog).

Eight inches, not 12. – Garth

#51 Asking for a friend on 12.06.21 at 6:07 pm

Hi Garth,

How do you envision Canadian REITs (residential, retail or industrial) faring with the advent of higher interest rates in the months and years that follow?

Little change. Most have arranged long-term, low-rate debt. – Garth

#52 Pierre on 12.06.21 at 6:09 pm

Hello,
do you have a reference for the real estate being 20% of the economy ?
Thanks

#53 Annek on 12.06.21 at 6:11 pm

#27 IHCTD9 on 12.06.21 at 4:07 pm
Right now we have the single most ineffective and likely most incompetent government in Canadian history. No tough love will be forthcoming from Trudeau, who is always standing by with a tube of polysporin for every little FTHB scrape. The BoC is right behind with Band-Aids for the economy.

She a go uppa till she a go boom.
————-
I agree totally! Elect a clown, get a circus.

#54 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 6:24 pm

#41 Faron on 12.06.21 at 5:03 pm
#31 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 4:12 pm

When markets collapse, they sweep away everything in their path. ​

So, if your financial trees are planted in the avalanche’s path, this might be a good time to relocate them.

Don’t become a cautionary tale.

——-

Yeah, TSLA does suck.

——-

Hmmm… let’s see…

TSLA, TSLA… dum diddy doo dah

Ah, here we go: 6131.53% as of end of trading today.

That works for me, but you should feel free to do you. Can you share how much better your best 7-year holding has done? Thx.

#55 Buying on the dip(stick) on 12.06.21 at 6:25 pm

#2 Dolce Vita on 12.06.21 at 2:41 pm

+729.63

2038 CET

I’d say not a bad investment class either.

——————————————

To the victor goes the spoils. And to the Dolce Vita too!

#56 Dazed and Confuscious on 12.06.21 at 6:30 pm

While you are at it, can you take care of my kid for $10/day? I don’t want to take responsibility for them, even though I (kinda) decided to have them. So I’d like you to help cover the cost.

Thanks. I hope you don’t mind.

#57 Bezengy on 12.06.21 at 6:30 pm

Evan Siddal (ex CHMC CEO) says any form of taxing the principal residence would be “political suicide.”

I suppose asking a bilateral committee to come up with a strategy to deal with a national housing crisis wouldn’t score enough political points for Justin to entertain the idea.

#58 Barb on 12.06.21 at 6:33 pm

Can imagine that umbrella base clanging down the sidewalk chasing after YoYo.

#59 Snow on 12.06.21 at 6:37 pm

DELETED

#60 Bowser (the) Browser on 12.06.21 at 6:38 pm

So nice now that I’m able to read the comments without the likes of a TurnerNation and company (they know who they are) using my new browser add-on. I should have made this years ago.

In keeping with the blog’s canine theme, I’ve named my browser extension Bowser (the Browser). He bites you if you leave silly comments!

BTW, is that nutcase still wasting space on the blog? Maybe I could develop one that simply makes them disappear instead!

#61 Bowser (the) Browser on 12.06.21 at 6:39 pm

So nice now that I’m able to read the comments without the likes of a TurnerNation and company (they know who they are) using my new browser add-on. I should have made this years ago.

In keeping with the blog’s canine theme, I’ve named my browser extension Bowser (the Browser). He bites you if you leave silly comments!

BTW, is that nutcase still wasting space on the blog? Maybe I could develop one that simply makes them disappear instead!

#62 Snow on 12.06.21 at 6:44 pm

That was a medical term that is in the dictionary Garth.

And it was funny. You know you laughed…trespassing…come on. You’re telling Dorthy the joke right now…I know it!

#63 Nonplused on 12.06.21 at 6:46 pm

But there is already a capital gains tax on speculative real estate. It can be up to 25% (roughly) depending on your tax bracket, just like other capital gains.

I suppose they could move the inclusion rate towards 100%, but if they were going to do that, why not include all capital gains? Why just real estate?

All this talk of taxing “speculative” real estate is a big nothing burger, it is already taxed. We can have a conversation about whether the capital gains inclusion rate in general is appropriate, and perhaps we should. But people who claim “speculative real estate” is not taxed don’t understand the system or are intentionally slapping you in the face with a big ol’ smelly red herring. The only real estate that is exempt is a primary residence. I hardly think that is speculative, as everyone needs a place to live, even though the market has produced some wonky gains in YVR and YYZ, which seem to be spreading.

I know, I can hear the protests already, “but what about all the cheating!” That should be addressed when it occurs, no doubt, but raising the capital gains inclusion rate on housing is not going to encourage more compliance. The higher the tax, the more cheating. Always. At some point taxes become so high that people perceive them to be unjust and then make it their duty to avoid them.

Remember, in a democracy over the long term, a law can only remain enforceable if it is generally perceived to be just, fair, and in the public interest.

#64 Damifino on 12.06.21 at 6:56 pm

I have enough wealth to easily buy the place I rent, but that would be colossally foolish.

Why is home ownership (i.e. insane debt, mad prices and fearsome risk) so highly touted for those who have no money?

#65 SA defeats Bowser on 12.06.21 at 7:04 pm

#59 Bowser (the) Browser on 12.06.21 at 6:39 pm

So nice now that I’m able to read the comments without the likes of a TurnerNation and company (they know who they are) using my new browser add-on. I should have made this years ago.

——–

Bypassed, haha. That was easy.

If you transfer $30/month to the Sail Away massage fund, I will refrain from further hacking of your genius system.

#66 Ronaldo on 12.06.21 at 7:35 pm

Kinda like buying a piece of bitcoin. Too funny. Could probably creaate and ETF for parcels like this.

#67 I rent cheap and stuff money in GIC's on 12.06.21 at 7:54 pm

Real estate will end badly in Canada. It is just a matter of time. I will stick with my 2.6% to 2.8% 5 year GIC, term deposit rates and $2,000 a month LIRA annuity payments. Inflation and taxes not an issue when I am putting on average $6,000 a month in these things for 20 years now.

My rent is only 15% on my gross retirement income which is $75,000 a year so even it goes up double in 15 to 20 years I will have so much investments, income to keep living a decent life.

#68 Faron on 12.06.21 at 8:09 pm

#54 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 6:24 pm

Ol’ reliable engineer. You are 100% as predictable as a can of Campbell’s soup, 50% as apetizing and 25% as interesting…

#69 SP on 12.06.21 at 8:12 pm

Is there a political party in Canada that seriously seeks to abolish R1 zoning, and made it part of their platform? NDP perhaps? Asking for a friend.

#70 Barb on 12.06.21 at 8:14 pm

“You know. They know. We all know.”

——————————
According to Garth, Canada has rocks and trees.
And houses.
That’s our economy.

#71 Ronaldo on 12.06.21 at 8:18 pm

#59 Bowser (the) Browser on 12.06.21 at 6:39 pm

BTW, is that nutcase still wasting space on the blog? Maybe I could develop one that simply makes them disappear instead!
—————————————————————–
Seems like you are having Turner Nation withdrawals.

#72 T-Man on 12.06.21 at 8:20 pm

Blackrock and Statestreet wait in the wings for this debt fueled gas bag to finally explode. They’ll buy it all for pennies on the dollar. Taxpayers’ grandchildren will pay the debt.

#73 leebow on 12.06.21 at 8:20 pm

When life gives you blood in the streets, make blood sausage.

Everything about the liberal plan is stupid. Gasoline -> Fire.

How much discretionary income will Canadians have after this new round of housing cost increases?

The BoC must be really worried that the produced economic expansion does not sufficiently justify the inflation rate. What tools do they have left then?

For lulz, here is a quote of JM Keynes

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. […] Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

#74 Yorkville renter on 12.06.21 at 8:22 pm

why is it so hard to skip a post? I skip over all TurnerNation posts, it’s not that hard

#75 I don’t know on 12.06.21 at 8:27 pm

“If you can’t see what’s coming, you will wear it.”

-What’s coming is probably more of the same (higher and higher prices in the gta).

90% of those 30 and under and near 99% of those 25 and under are completely priced out and wanting to buy real estate in the gta. That demand is generational and unlikely to dissipate for decades. This is ignoring newcomers, foreign investors, move up buyers, new families, and the myriad of other incentives in place (first time home buyer plan, principle residence exemption, heloc ability and so on).

Add to that that worldwide debt is much much higher than the 80’s, which will temper rate hikes. It’s becoming clear the future is not a crisis of lower prices like in the past, but one of endlessly rising ones instead. There is real fear out there now. Just look at the over 40 crowd who never bought and never will (minus the savvy investors -the extreme minority).

#76 Diversified in Mississauga on 12.06.21 at 8:48 pm

#4 TurnerNation on 12.06.21 at 2:43 pm

We pay high taxes for all the stuff we get like a Government-owned commuter railway. OOPS they fired competent staff. Just another day in a Former First World County.
Competent staff? Are you kidding me? These anti-vaxers who got sent home are idiots! Yeah, give up a great job, solid pay, probably a better pension than most; and they are competent?
No wonder I skip your comments 99% of the time. Yikes.

#77 crossbordershopper on 12.06.21 at 9:01 pm

wait a second, you think a 65 year old lady who delcares no income on her taxes because she never worked in canada(well her husband had a restaurant, she showed up sometimes) and only spends half the time here anyway,(6 months in greece in this case). and is fully allowed to own here 1.25 million home paid for , but gets free cheques from the government for life.
So yes everyone it seems does get a free home to live in, regardless of asset or income or if they ever contributed anything to the system for the lifetime they were here.
So, why should we care if someone wants to put 10% down on a first time home purchase, and if rates rise a few points, they will manage. People live in nice homes now, back in the day people shared rooms, one washroom for family, one garage,
People today live very well, sure its a paper ponzi scheme, but work is work, people work now, and have more, and before people worked and had a lousier life.
the details about ratios of income, taxes, inflation etc. are just numbers the net result is young people are suppost to have kids and buy stuff. I know old people who dont leave there house for days on end, its kinda of senior house arrest.

#78 DON on 12.06.21 at 9:07 pm

#72 Yorkville renter on 12.06.21 at 8:22 pm
why is it so hard to skip a post? I skip over all TurnerNation posts, it’s not that hard

********

The issue is between the index finger and the scroll wheel…

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.21 at 9:22 pm

#33 Stoph on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm
Pierre Poilievre grilling Chrystia Freeland on real estate inflation.
———–
Haha.
No use grilling her.
Just skin and bones, and tough as nails.

#80 Hebrides of Scotland on 12.06.21 at 9:24 pm

Weez R doin it.

#81 Adam on 12.06.21 at 9:31 pm

Is Evergrande going to be the trigger we desperately need (despite how much it will hurt)? Are governments going to try to prevent the collapse by doing stupid things if it happens? Even if governments do, will it matter, can it be contained or soft-landed in anyway?

#82 Doug t on 12.06.21 at 9:32 pm

#74 diversified in Mississauga

DUDE – nobody puts TurnerNation in a corner – word

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.21 at 9:36 pm

Didn’t Buffet say: “when there is blood on the street, buy Tesla”.
You guys are so easily duped by Sailo.

#84 Doug t on 12.06.21 at 9:37 pm

CANADA – hewers of wood and drawers of water – oh and real estate = KABOOM

#85 Ballingsford on 12.06.21 at 9:46 pm

One of the requirements to get a Senate appointment is that you need to own some land. So, anyone with those aspirations may want to buy it.

#86 just say no on 12.06.21 at 9:59 pm

so 1060 Danforth ave appears to be next to the wall of the pharmacy building see by the gap in the chain link fence? Then I see to rainpipes coming down the wall so your 8inch property would make a great gutter for the pipes and maybe you could rent the run off gutter back to the pharmacy lol pr maybe sue them for flooding you gutter sized land? Other than that it would be a fixed address for a nomad? maybe even put up a mailbox! Or rent out the address to other homeless people who need addresses? My I think I am done here…..

#87 cramar on 12.06.21 at 10:03 pm

Own a piece of the Danforth? Eight inches for $50k?

The obvious question is what do you do with it? Build mouse housing?

#88 Km on 12.06.21 at 10:49 pm

The government has made it abundantly clear they have no intention of letting this deflate. No surprise people now feel it will go to the moon and not deflate in any meaningful way. They have promised it to all and from the amount of money they have currently given away over covid etc it is proof they will keep their promises no matter how much it hurts Canada in the long run.

#89 Och aye on 12.06.21 at 10:57 pm

#78 Hebrides of Scotland on 12.06.21 at 9:24 pm

Weez R doin it.
…..
How much is a wee crofter these days…

#90 Johnny come lately on 12.06.21 at 11:00 pm

Real estate as an asset class? It’s not. Try borrowing against it at a brokerage. You can, but not at the inflated price politicians would have you believe it’s worth. In fact real estate is an earlier generations Bitcoin, essentially worthless when the hype is stripped away. That’s why residential real estate is not an asset class, it’s non fungible . An Order Nisi to remove you is necessary in order to trade it back into cash. So it is not cash, only cash is cash. Financial institutions that deal in cash are the 300 pound gorilla in the room and they don’t trade in fantasy or wax bananas. Your bank loan is not cash, ergo, your house is not cash. Sleep tight, if all you’ve got is a house as “an asset”. Thinking otherwise is greatly foolish.

#91 Bob Dog on 12.06.21 at 11:38 pm

I suspect the NSA can reverse the SHA256 hashing algorithm they invented.

#92 meslippery on 12.06.21 at 11:56 pm

#39 Sail Away
———

#21 Forget About It on 12.06.21 at 3:49 pm

I never worry about the prices of Rolls Royces because I am happy riding a bike.

——-

Fair enough.

One issue today is that so many people are eagerly buying bicycles for the price of a
.

It’s just a bike, for crying out loud!

—————
Ever time I hear Rolls Royce I think of this story.
Guy goes to the auto wreckers throws the parts he
wants over the fence only to come back after closing to
get them.
On his way out the boss said cant find what you need?
He said no could not find any Rolls Royces

#93 Ronaldo on 12.06.21 at 11:57 pm

A FEW TIDBITS OF INFORMATION FROM THE PAST:

January 1971 – Unemployment rate in BC 9.4%

March 1971 – Term deposits 1 yr. 7.5% 5 yr. 8%. 3 b.r. condo in North Vancr. 1 yr old $24,900.

September 1971 – Minimum wage of 1.50 to be raised to 2.50 by NDP gov’t. Bellhops and maids earn 2.39 to 2.52 per hour. Waitresses are paid 2.29.

Dave Barrett, new premier list $574.8 million in liquid assets.

December 1972 – Longshoreman in Vancouver awarded 20% increase over 28 months to $6.08 per hour in last 5 months of contract.

Wage and price controls imposed in US.

September 1973 – BC Rail trainmen on strike. Currently guaranted $3.01 per hour and asking for $4.81 per hr.

Cost to build a standard 1400 s.f. bungalow in Vancouver rose from $10.16/sf in 1963 to $19.05 s.f. now. At the end of 1973 the average sale price of a house through the MLS was $38,561 well up from the $31,465 average in 1972. Northwest Trust 9% for 6 month and 1 yr term.

December 1973 – Dr. Morton Shulman predicts the most horrible recession ever seen in Canada in 1974. It would be the most unusual this country had ever seen. The Average house price in Vancouver for the final quarter was $46,487.

More to come.

#94 Neo on 12.07.21 at 12:01 am

Devastating assessment of government corruption in Canada. The one takeaway from this post is, Buy Guns.

#95 Jane24 on 12.07.21 at 2:00 am

Well I was recently at a birthday party and met a charming lady who had recently used her second passport and relocated her family to Britain from Hong Kong. As a Canadian I commented that I was surprised that they hadn’t gone to Vancouver and she laughed in my face. Apparently BC is so over for the Hong Kongers.

I was told that everyone knows that BC is corrupt and that the house prices are ridiculous even for her family who sold their Hong Kong flats for millions. She apparently is an outrider as she relocated to the south of England. All the rest of her family and incoming friends are moving to Leeds in northern England. She pointed out that buying a terrace or semi house to rent out in Leeds started at $200,000 Cdn with great cash flow and her family members could buy 10 and just live on the income. She has located down south where the same house in Southampton is available for $350,000 Cdn. Much better weather she said. Interesting. The Chinese are always ahead of the pack when it comes to business.

#96 Mary on 12.07.21 at 3:05 am

The government wants real estate prices to rise….it guarantees income from property taxes to local and federal pockets. And capital gains on secondary properties.

Incentives to buy help them plan their budget and disguise their economics 101 financial strategy. The real question is WHY would they do anything to reduce rising prices? Only tax payers have that power – but they are too naive to understand that.

#97 under the radar on 12.07.21 at 5:36 am

Cheap money, Huge leverage , No supply , insatiable demand, What can go wrong. ?

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.21 at 8:03 am

@#84 just say no to “The Danforth”
“so 1060 Danforth ave appears to be next to the wall of the pharmacy building see by the gap in the chain link fence?”

+++

Just curious.
Is it only realtors that refer to Danforth Ave. as “The Danforth”?
Or are people in that neighborhood under the pretentious delusion that it’s really really really that important?
What’s next.
The Toronto?

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.21 at 8:14 am

@#82 Doug t
“CANADA – hewers of wood and drawers of water
+++++
Nope.
Our racist, genocidal, misogynist, politically incorrect forefathers were once hewers of wood and drawers of water….
Now?
After all the statues have been torn down, the buildings, the bridges, the towns and streets renamed to something apologistic and inoffensive…..
We’ll give all the money back we ever earned.
Then.
We are hewers of paperwork and drawers of emails…

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.21 at 8:18 am

@#83 Bailingsford.
“One of the requirements to get a Senate appointment is that you need to own some land. ”
+++

Sooooo.
If prices continue to climb so high that no one can afford to buy Property….eventually in 50 years or so….. no one will qualify for the Senate?

Its worth it.

#101 IHCTD9 on 12.07.21 at 8:21 am

#85 cramar on 12.06.21 at 10:03 pm
Own a piece of the Danforth? Eight inches for $50k?

The obvious question is what do you do with it? Build mouse housing?
____

Clothes-line rental business.

Pet Anaconda spa.

Bicycle parking lot.

Equipment storage unit for pole vaulters.

So many options!

#102 Dharma Bum on 12.07.21 at 8:44 am

#18 Dogman01

So they did, Maricopa Arizona, a 1600 Sq Ft Bungalow built in 2007got it for …..wait for it….. $69,000 Canadian!!!!!
———————————————————————————————————

Still a lot of money for an adobe cookie cutter house in a postage stamp retirement community town smack dab in the middle of a desert in Native American controlled territory, downwind from a massive feed lot.

When the wind is blowing in its direction, the stench in the air could literally knock a buzzard off a sh*t wagon!

They shoulda coughed up an extra $40K and bought something closer to Phoenix.

#103 Phylis on 12.07.21 at 8:54 am

#71 leebow on 12.06.21 at 8:20 pm
When life gives you blood in the streets, make blood sausage.

Everything about the liberal plan is stupid. Gasoline -> Fire.

How much discretionary income will Canadians have after this new round of housing cost increases?

The BoC must be really worried that the produced economic expansion does not sufficiently justify the inflation rate. What tools do they have left then?

For lulz, here is a quote of JM Keynes

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. […] Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
Xxxxxxxxxxx
What would you expect a communist to say? Inflation is more like grease to keep the money moving and to keep too many people from reaching the top of the pole and sitting on it forever. Can’t have people simply collecting it like bitcoins.

#104 Dharma Bum on 12.07.21 at 8:57 am

#85 Cramar

Own a piece of the Danforth? Eight inches for $50k?

The obvious question is what do you do with it?
—————————————————————————————————

How about another souvlaki joint or a baklava bakery?

#105 Phylis on 12.07.21 at 9:15 am

Whoops, part of my comment was poorly directed.

#106 willworkforpickles on 12.07.21 at 9:41 am

#71 leebow
“Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

Within this very decade, the loss of all wealth of all who reside on the continent of North America including our very land and possessions will be taken from us.
Eat Drink and be Merry (now – today) for Tomorrow we Die…
Sounds funny as hell ….impossible really.
It isn’t.
.

#107 Quintilian on 12.07.21 at 9:56 am

#33 Stoph on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm
“Pierre Poilievre grilling Chrystia Freeland on real estate inflation.”

That is theatre.

Question period is an opportunity for the politicians to show how good they are at lying-OOPS that’s unparliamentary- I meant to practice their oratory skills.

Imagine if Pierre wasn’t lying during the campaign and pointed out that we are in a midst of a housing bubble, and that if the Liberals won the election there was a good possibility that the voter’s homes would inflate another 20%. But if he were voted in, he would work toward popping the bubble.

He would have lost his seat.

Politicians from both parties are prostitutes, the system is rigged, the corrupted voters, all too eagerly, accept the bribe, morals be dammed.

Boomers enjoy eating their young.

#108 westcdn on 12.07.21 at 10:01 am

Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 1:20 pm:

“What’s your instinct track record? Was the natural gas thing done on instinct?”

Actually I did not invest. I got lucky selling my BIR options and was looking to get back in. My “instincts” are pretty good for guessing the future. Another tool in my box when I dealing with FUD. I do get things wrong but landing on my feet and get going again and learning is something I do well.

#109 Penny Henny on 12.07.21 at 10:10 am

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.07.21 at 8:03 am
@#84 just say no to “The Danforth”
“so 1060 Danforth ave appears to be next to the wall of the pharmacy building see by the gap in the chain link fence?”

+++

Just curious.
Is it only realtors that refer to Danforth Ave. as “The Danforth”?
Or are people in that neighborhood under the pretentious delusion that it’s really really really that important?
What’s next.
The Toronto?

/////////////////////

You don’t get it Fartz.
Not all of Danforth Ave is referred to as The Danforth, just a certain section where there is an abundance of restaurants and independently owned shops.

#110 willworkforpickles on 12.07.21 at 10:47 am

In relation to my last comment and in pondering the titles of the last 2 blog entries by the author, Garth of course…with regards to “The Bomb” and “Blood in the Streets” figuratively used.
Don’t be none surprised when the days arrive where these titles can appropriately be used literally in reference to the overall chaos here at home then.

#111 Sail Away on 12.07.21 at 11:34 am

#106 westcdn on 12.07.21 at 10:01 am
Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 1:20 pm:

“What’s your instinct track record? Was the natural gas thing done on instinct?”

——–

Actually I did not invest. I got lucky selling my BIR options and was looking to get back in. My “instincts” are pretty good for guessing the future. Another tool in my box when I dealing with FUD. I do get things wrong but landing on my feet and get going again and learning is something I do well.

——–

Good luck

#112 Paterfamilias on 12.07.21 at 11:43 am

# 105. Quintilian. I can only wish that so much of what you wrote were not so accurate.

#113 Palpha on 12.07.21 at 12:26 pm

https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/c76a7448-4306-4a50-a335-3a7c98fcbe9e/
Interesting summary of what needs to be done to correct the housing fiasco.

#114 Prince Polo on 12.07.21 at 12:42 pm

Are you scotch-drinking buddies with Belski?

“Although this sharp recovery is unlikely to be matched in 2022, we believe Canadian equities can still approach double-digit growth in 2022. In fact, we forecast that the S&P/TSX will rise 16% (from current levels) and reach 24,000 by 2022 year-end, which marks another new all-time high. Our expectation is based on the assumptions of a more normalized cost-of-equity (DDM model) and a market multiple (PE model) that is in line with historical average. Overall, our 2022 outlook assumes a return to normalcy and a transition to a more earnings-driven environment, which is likely to see greater bouts of volatility”

Mr. Belski recommends overweight positions in Consumer discretionary stocks, Financials with more U.S. exposure, Industrials, and Materials.

#115 ImGonnaBeSick on 12.07.21 at 12:46 pm

#105 Quintilian on 12.07.21 at 9:56 am

Boomers enjoy eating their young.

If that were the case, there would be no Bank of Mom…

Seems more like the young run eagerly into the maw…

#116 Stoph on 12.07.21 at 1:18 pm

#105 Quintilian on 12.07.21 at 9:56 am
#33 Stoph on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm
“Pierre Poilievre grilling Chrystia Freeland on real estate inflation.”

I suspect that things wouldn’t be much different on the RE front if the Cons had won the last election, but as it is, the Liberals are currently in charge and should be addressing RE inflation.

#117 WTF on 12.07.21 at 1:45 pm

#105

You are correct regarding the electorate and bribes. Ours to own collectively (all ages), full stop.

This blame boomers thingy is a tad tiresome.

Neither of the politicians you mention are Boomers Nor is the current PM, most if not all his Cabinet, or the leaders of the opposition for that matter.

As far as venal, duplicitous, politicians. Totally agree. BS platforms and voting have been going on for quite some time. As in forever.

Fast forward to reality today in the new world order:

Millennials comprise the largest voting block and have elected a government that seems bent on spending into oblivion and saddling future generations with crushing debt obligations. All this while also telling lies.

Well done.

#118 WTF on 12.07.21 at 2:10 pm

oops that would be #107 Marcus Fabius

#119 KLNR on 12.07.21 at 2:22 pm

@#28 Griffith on 12.06.21 at 4:10 pm
I really don’t care about being a homeowner if prices are so crazy high. I just can’t wrap my head around owning a home for these kinds of prices.

Look at a car, it has a huge amount of technology and refinement built in to it. Costs you less than $100k. For only $25k you can get a sedan that talks to your iPhone, has heating, air conditioning, heated seats, a back-up camera, the locks are electrified, essentially “smart” locks, etc.

But for 40 times that price (that is four times ten) you get basically the same thing on , just bigger, some dirt and a lot of drywall, with some plumbing, but locks aren’t powered, no camera built in, seats aren’t heated, maybe won’t have air conditioning. Usually comes with crap appliances that won’t last 10 years, probably has asbestos in the walls if it’s old enough. It also has no engine or wheels to move it around, it is stuck in one spot. Plus, to own it you have to pay a whole whack of property taxes.

Makes. No. Sense. For what you get, houses are a massive, insane rip off.

your analogy doesn’t really make any sense.
incredibly low supply combined with incredibly high demand means this housing train has a ways to go before going off the rails. probably never will.

#120 KLNR on 12.07.21 at 2:25 pm

@#116 Stoph on 12.07.21 at 1:18 pm
#105 Quintilian on 12.07.21 at 9:56 am
#33 Stoph on 12.06.21 at 4:21 pm
“Pierre Poilievre grilling Chrystia Freeland on real estate inflation.”

I suspect that things wouldn’t be much different on the RE front if the Cons had won the last election, but as it is, the Liberals are currently in charge and should be addressing RE inflation.

Study: MPs spend majority of their time fantasizing about beating up Pierre Poilievre

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2021/11/study-mps-spend-majority-of-their-time-fantasizing-about-beating-up-pierre-poilievre/

#121 Linda on 12.07.21 at 2:48 pm

That $10 per day per child daycare cost will have to be taxpayer subsidized. Figure an 8 hour day. Figure a $15 minimum wage rate per child care attendant. That would work out to 12 kids per worker just to cover the 8 hours at $15 per hour. So how would a daycare operator be able to make any money if they can’t charge more than $10 per child per day? The only way to make it work would be government subsidies, otherwise known as ‘the taxpayer’.

#122 Drinking on 12.07.21 at 5:44 pm

Nobody in there right mind of the West or East of Toronto with the exception of the East Coast and so called Western Green Coast hypocrites, (????) can or will ever understand as to why the so called Libs were ever re-elected!!

That Tidal (Tsunami) wave is almost at our door step and yet???? Let’s dig a bunker we can ride it out, head shake!!