The bomb

Eight more sleeps ‘til Chrystia speaks. Next Tuesday, an economic update – the first since we kinda voted for the Liberals in a campaign dominated by a housing crisis.

The election was 76 days ago. In that time the typical GTA property has increased by $29,000. In Toronto the average detached has inflated another $89,000. If this pace continues, next November that place will cost $2.235 million, having appreciated an addition $427,000.

Conclusion: out of control. The guys in charge have no idea how to contain it. The situation poses substantial societal risk – especially as incomes are barely creeping ahead and real estate floats on a roiling sea of leverage.

What will she do next week? Don’t hold your breath. Nobody in Ottawa has the stones to act.

Now, it’s not just the 6ix. Or YVR. Or the desperate 905. Here are two examples of a nation on the brink… of something.

Kelowna’s a nice place. Like Mississauga but with less snow, no big roads, a lake with a monster and a street called Pandosy. But like ‘Saga, it’s been the recipient of urban flight from a big city nearby caused by Covid and crazy prices. Now it’s insane, too.

In the last month detached prices have risen $31,000 and are almost at $1.1 million – astonishing in a place where you could buy the same house for $500,000 five years ago. Meanwhile rents are going all Elon. Tiny one-bedders (in a place with a shallow labour pool) are $1,800. Rooms for a grand a month. Two-bedrooms units at $2,400 – up 70% since 2016.

From $500k to $1.1m in five short years

Says our K correspondent: “There is a logical growing chorus of online comments of frustration among active people looking at the rental postings, which is the same thing that was observed in Vancouver 10 years ago. New entrants (especially the younger generation) are being squeezed hard. As reported in October of 2021, you need to make a minimum wage of $30+ per hour, working 40-hours per week (or $63K+ per year) to qualify for a decent one-bedroom rental in Kelowna.”

If you run a restaurant, a bar or a store, can you pay the kiddos thirty bucks an hour to wait tables and ring up sales? Of course not. But you will. And this is exactly the dilemma in K-town, as it is in Victoria, Vancouver or Toronto. Housing inflation will inevitably lead to wage inflation, price inflation and extra currency destruction – then higher rates, at a time when governments are financing more debt than God has.

Now to Kitchener-Waterloo, which used to be a nice, affordable city of a quarter million safely distant from the GTA. No more. Waterloo Region has become a total feeding frenzy. As of last week there were only 207 resale homes available in the entire region. That is a 9-day supply, compared with a normal market containing three months of inventory.

Active listings have collapsed here more than in most places, now 80% below the 10-year average and 40% less than a year ago, where there was also a crisis. DOM has dropped to just ten. Buyers are crawling over each other here and also in nearby Cambridge (there homes trade in 15 days). In both places November set a record for sales. The average detached in K-W is expected to top $1 million next month. That’s up 30% in a year.

None of this is remotely normal. It occurs during a fourth wave of the slimy little pathogen, as higher mortgage rates are propelling buyers, and realtors beg reluctant owners to list. But with prices out of control and rents following, the inventory freeze worsens. Where, homeowners wonder, would I go? Most people understand they’d not be able to afford their own homes.

Enter Chrsytia. The T2 gang wants to pump another $7 billion into the economy in pandemic support payments. The government has said it will spend an additional $80 billion, and is coming off a $350 billion annual deficit. The national debt of $1.1 trillion will soon have doubled under just one prime minister. We have Omicron now. BC’s infrastructure is a mess after the floods. The supply chain is still busted. Inflation’s running hot, at a 30-year high. It’s a US election year, and Americans are getting protectionist again. Now we all have to get three doses, too.

What can Ottawa do to cool housing, tamp down prices, stop the rampant speculation, restore balance and – especially – give a little hope to households facing residential income rape and indenture?

On the weekend the former head of CHMC gave an interview and laid it all out. “One of the things that’s really driving people apart in terms of inequality in our country is the amount of money people are making off houses who own them,” said Evan Siddall, “versus the amount of money people aren’t making on their homes that rent them. It’s a real problem.”

“Why don’t we tax gains on houses the way we tax gains on other investments? It’s a serious, non-progressive situation in our tax code. Politicians just aren’t allowed to have this conversation because the opposition, and it’s any colour, will skewer them for it. And so we don’t have the debate we have to have.”

Come Tuesday, when you hear about more money for first-time buyers, the new FHSA down payment tax shelter and a higher insured mortgage borrowing limit, think of Kelowna or Kitchener. More demand. A shorter fuse.

About the picture: “Here’s our 4 month old Schnauzer, Kitty,” writes John from Kelowna. “We picked her up just days before the flooding in Abbotsford. Her breeder is at ground zero and unfortunately their home is underwater…. Thankfully all the puppies were adopted out prior. Kitty’s high and dry in Kelowna.”

139 comments ↓

#1 A01 on 12.05.21 at 2:42 pm

Garth it’s too bad you don’t live stream on YouTube, or Instagram. You could do a real time reaction to T2’s budget. The housing prices are crazy, not to mention the real estate fees, land transfer taxes and the notion that the house must be a HGTV showcase before you can move in. Crazy times.

#2 Cheese on 12.05.21 at 2:44 pm

I’ve given up already.

#3 TurnerNation on 12.05.21 at 2:46 pm

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.04.21 at 12:05 pm

It’s been said that a War is when the government tells you who to hate.
Whereas, a Revolution is when you figure out really who to hate.


– Life in a Former First World Country. Comrades it will be a long cold winter of lining up outside in the bitter cold (The CV Health Rules you know!) due to limited capacity and now shortages.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/12/lcbo-shortage/
“The LCBO suggests people buy their booze early this holiday season due to a shortage.
Transportation issues and the “ongoing considerations of COVID-19″ – including changes to consumer demand – have led to a booze shortage at the LCBO particularly on imported products”


— Science in Kanada. Nothing and I mean nothing matters – but the CV Rules. They are permanent.
The injured must be happy, the CV Rules were followed. Case closed.

https://tj.news/times-and-transcript/101736043
“Unvaccinated witness can’t fly to N.B.; man charged with attempted murder released”


— Supply chain/Food supply. This sounds like the next step of plan in take-down of the Former First World Countries.

https://tnc.news/2021/12/05/truckers-warn-vaccine-mandate-will-lead-to-supply-shortages/
“Stephen Laskowski, President and Chief Executive of the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA), spoke out against the policy Friday.
“We know that there already is disruption in the supply chain; this is going to intensify it,” said Laskowski. “This is not a trucking issue. This is a Canada-U.S. economic issue.”
Approximately 70% of US-Canada trade moves by truck, Laskowski noted. ”


— Brazil, San Paulo – all the old culture must go – CV Rules are the new permanent life.

.Omicron Leads SP to Keep Masks, and Capital Suspends New Year’s Eve. Mayor says that São Silvestre will take place and that it is too early to make a decision about Carnival

#4 Prince Polo on 12.05.21 at 2:47 pm

Owning bank shares is da bomb. Owning a $1M+ mortgage is the bomb. Will these same boastful instagrammers also post photos of their foreclosure notices on the granite countertops?

#5 Yansong Gao on 12.05.21 at 2:47 pm

No hope – buy in Mexico – cheaper and lower taxes

#6 Summertime on 12.05.21 at 2:52 pm

We have seen nothing yet.

Outrages low-life lies, claiming that inflation is 2 % with houses apparently in same places increasing by 120 % in 5 years.

No guts to tax the real estate ‘appreciation’.

Which is due to irreversible currency destruction in real time and accelerating.

Labour costs are capped. Prices are not.

Despite what people think there will be NO WAGE INCREASES in Canada, there is no economy to support that.

Instead accelerating decline of living due to rapid rise of all costs. Closure of businesses that can not sustain low paid workers in the big cities.

Rates can not be increased. People will be squeezed further until it becomes close to impossible to live in the big cities. Oh, wait, that was the case from 5 years ago, now is much worse and becoming even worse by the day.

#7 Andrewski on 12.05.21 at 2:52 pm

Exactly right Garth. It matters not what changes need to be made by politicians, those not in power will oppose any sensible discussion, therefore nothing gets done.

#8 Summertime on 12.05.21 at 2:57 pm

Waiting for shared/intergenerational/100 years+/ interest only/ ‘insured’ mortgages, with ‘help from government’ in the forms of subsidies and tax incentives that will only drive prices further up.

For a piece of moldy shack in the middle of the f….ng nowhere.

What an art that is, to convince the plebs to pay that much for their working class city dwellings. By making it feel special and ‘winner’ to the owners.

In Rome they were close to free.

#9 Quintilian on 12.05.21 at 2:59 pm

It might seem counter intuitive to the lesser minds.
But Chrystia is on the right track.

Sometimes the best way to put out a raging fire is to add fuel to it.

The bubble bursts, the Libs don’t get the blame, the rural grade party is safely kept away from the levers of power, win, win ,win.

#10 Ian on 12.05.21 at 3:03 pm

No one cares. I have no idea how you buy an average home in Canada at $760k even with 20% down and afford $2k/mth in daycare a car payment and groceries. My family and I are so screwed if landlords jack rent more :( sure I can find cheaper rent 30km + away, but then you need a second car, insurance, gas, time, no further ahead. And now places are forecasting to go to $2M as a joke, but is it? Sigh…..

#11 SP on 12.05.21 at 3:03 pm

Now we all have to get three doses, too. – Garth

It’ll always be N+1. Doses, covid waves, years of pandemic, you name it.
You still have any trust left in our “health authorities” Garth?

#12 Albertaguy in AB on 12.05.21 at 3:04 pm

Solution…buy in Calgary.

2014 Assessed 396k tax 2328
2021 Assessed 420k tax 3163

7 year increase in value 6% (< 1% per year)
7 year increase in tax 35% (4.5% per year)

#13 fiat Cronysim... on 12.05.21 at 3:04 pm

i hope you realize this is all possible because of the criminal behavior of central banks. the greatest ever monetary system was the gold standard. whatever its faults, it worked better than what’s happening now.

there’s a real big problem coming our way sooner than people think

did you know that from 1948-1973, US productivity increased 96.7% and Hourly Compensation (wages and benefits) increased 91.3%

from 1973-2013, US productivity was up 74.4% and Hourly Compensation was up a paltry 9.2%

productivity and worker pay were more or less aligned until the the currency became totally fiat in 1971 – since then productivity has risen but real wages have not kept up as the market-created link between productivity and real wages has come unglued under fiat Cronyism.

we wont’ be going back to a gold standard, but first you have to understand what the problem is before you can tackle it…

#14 I’m stupid on 12.05.21 at 3:06 pm

“Why don’t we tax gains on houses the way we tax gains on other investments? It’s a serious, non-progressive situation in our tax code. Politicians just aren’t allowed to have this conversation because the opposition, and it’s any colour, will skewer them for it. And so we don’t have the debate we have to have.”

That’s easy to answer… show me one MP that doesn’t own a home. Now recall that the only taxes people like, are the ones paid by someone else and we know why Ottawa won’t tax homes.

#15 Maple Leaf Wannabee on 12.05.21 at 3:06 pm

It’s not just about supply side policies. What about the move to net zero as we decarbonize? Cost of Carbon is going to rise taking the price of everything with it. Cement. Glass. Factories. Cars. Toys. There is a great inflation reckoning on the horizon.

Regarding Canada? The central bank has lost control of the narrative and is behind the curve. Was reckless in promising ultralight low rates till 2023; has failed to message accurately regarding downside risks of a low interest rate environment; and most telling still cannot get its collective head around the fact that there is nothing transitory abut inflation just more supply dissociation ahead.

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.21 at 3:07 pm

@#9 Quinty’s Questionable Quotes
“Sometimes the best way to put out a raging fire is to add fuel to it.

The bubble bursts, the Libs don’t get the blame,”

++

Wishful thinking by a diehard Liberal.

The Libs will be dragged kicking and screaming to raise interest rates because…..the international bond and money markets will demand it.
And “Poof”….. just like that….. housing prices will be wallowing in a cesspool of self pity.

1980’s all over again.
I can’t wait.

#17 Duffy on 12.05.21 at 3:08 pm

Soon the drunken party will be over and the only sign of the liberal leader will be the faint smell of jet exhaust.

#18 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 12.05.21 at 3:09 pm

I would agree that the we need a plan to slow down a market driven insane by lack of supply options and increase demand .
1) increase supply, pre-approve existing set building plans ( say 10 houses,10 townhomes and 10 condo designs) and bypass the current permit approval process. Realistically if one followed the housing market you know everything builders build is based of the same plans with minor exterior changes and non-structural floor plan changes. Recycled designs so why go through a whole re-approval process.
Yes inspect for code compliance but no need to keep re-approval of same structuresoverand over again.
2) Tax on a progressive scale ,regardless of circumstances, life is not fair and you cannot make exceptions for anyone so if less than 5 years tax at 100% capital gains as income and progressively reduce down to 0% tax at 10 or 15 years.
The only other options is to do what some local governments in China did where they pretty much dictated the prices of resale condos as %
of original sale price and inflation and it worked… prices dropped .In Canada( or any non-authocratic country) this will never be an option so back to points 1&2.

#19 an investor on 12.05.21 at 3:13 pm

Are the banks financing these 7 figure RE purchases or are the buyers using numbered companies and paying cash?

#20 Doug t on 12.05.21 at 3:30 pm

Unlike many countries around the world, Canada does not have much in the way of culture or history that can bind people together – in essence we are still going through puberty and the hormones are making people STUPID – oh well the U.S. will be glad to pick us apart when the time is right

#21 espressobob on 12.05.21 at 3:31 pm

Financial repression is just a fact of life, always has been. The trick is to stay ahead of the curve. Not so easy moving forward.

This will gain momentum, like going off a cliff eventually, not so good.

Old Coppernose in modern times.

#22 wallflower on 12.05.21 at 3:33 pm

This rental pandemic is way more serious than that other pandemic.
This is like writ large Canada what happened to holiday/offshore investor town Whistler where workers simply could not find accommodation and so adopted third world sardine style boarding. Not so horrid given it was always temporary. (Whistler workers high churn.)

What a mess the adults have created.

#23 Linda on 12.05.21 at 3:37 pm

So I’m wondering about the concept of ‘taxing gains on houses’. How would that work? Would it only occur upon the sale of a property? Would there be any reduction of taxes owed for years of ownership; deductions of items – home renovation expenses, general maintenance, mortgage interest etc.? What would be considered ‘fair’ if housing appreciation is going to be treated like any other investment? Would capital gains taxation rules apply? I’d note that in the USA capital gains on RE are taxed, but mortgage interest is allowed as a deduction. Would Canada follow suit or would that be considered ‘unfair’?

Also, if RE capital gains become subject to taxation upon the sale, would that not reduce any incentive a homeowner might have to sell? Further reducing possible inventory & supporting the higher RE prices that prevail these days?

About the former sleepy towns becoming RE hotspots, for sure. Was visiting family & hardly recognized the former sleepy hamlet(s) that are in the vicinity. New subdivisions, huge new homes & yes, much increased local RE pricing. Rents way up as well, though said sleepy hamlets never had much in the way of rental accommodation to start with.

#24 Rosco on 12.05.21 at 3:40 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#25 twofatcats on 12.05.21 at 3:53 pm

Dec 5 Today’s flipped ‘principal residences’

https://www.zolo.ca/st-catharines-real-estate/286-cushman-road/41#sold-history

https://www.zolo.ca/burlington-real-estate/5168-cedar-springs-road#sold-history

https://www.zolo.ca/welland-real-estate/13-dover-court#sold-history
https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/9w8o3m54rNk3GKjm/13-DOVER-Court-Welland-30826515

#26 X on 12.05.21 at 3:58 pm

Rates need to increase to cool RE. It is that simple. Gov’t only adds fuel to the fire to get re elected.

#27 Exodus 2020 on 12.05.21 at 3:59 pm

Tax capital gains in fulll, offset by introducing tax deductible mortgage interest against employment income. This would decrease risk of default as interest rates rise, put tax benefits in the front end of a mortgage rather than at the sale, and create more equality. And for those buying in cash, no tax benefit!

#28 fishman on 12.05.21 at 4:03 pm

Friday a 330 metre, (10,000 loaded cans) container ship slipped into Vancouver Harbour after a couple weeks on anchor. Wait, not to unload, but to replenish fresh water & diesel fuel. Ships at anchor are not allowed to burn bunker fuel. Then back out to the anchorage. How about the grain ships that take specialty orders? 120 grain cars pull up alongside ships & grain/pulse directly loaded into respective hatches. No train. Look: there’s American tankers bringing fuel to the Burnaby refinery! Oh well, maybe they’ll get the barge off English Bay in the morning bull tide.

#29 Quintilian on 12.05.21 at 4:12 pm

“The Libs will be dragged kicking and screaming to raise interest rates because…..the international bond and money markets will demand it.”

To0 funny CEF.

You are stuck in the 70’s text book theories.
The world has changed.

Bonds are no longer controlled by the free market.

They are controlled by Central Bankers and their farcical expanding balance sheets.

The CB’s need to keep the illusion going; they fear the crypto currency fraudsters will gain control if a serious financial crisis develops.

#30 CJohnC on 12.05.21 at 4:13 pm

#24 Rosco

Your just another me me antivaxer , freedom for me type obviously since that is the only thing that site promotes . Surprised Garth let that slip by

Me too. – Garth

#31 jimmy zhao on 12.05.21 at 4:15 pm

Renters should find roommates to afford a decent place.
People should ‘bite the bullet’ and lower their standard of living.

#32 WTF on 12.05.21 at 4:16 pm

#9

Disagree.

This “lesser mind” thinks the Lib brain trust must have sore toes kicking the bloated RE can further down the road.

When this gasbag blows, Honest Realtors®, their Cartel masters, (in lockstep with the current profligate politicians) will be eager to start the circular firing squad.

Slow Motion train wreck

#33 Dave on 12.05.21 at 4:19 pm

Kelowna is ground zero for climate change. Forest fire risk of the charts. Even if your place doesn’t get torched, how many weeks of smoke are you going to breath every summer? Only a fool would buy there now.

#34 Caffeine Monkey on 12.05.21 at 4:20 pm

People always have difficulty recognizing exponential growth at the beginning of a curve, but that’s where we are with electric vehicles, which will dominate vehicle sales in a couple decades. Skeptics only need to look at Norway for evidence.

Similar market forces that are making solar, wind, and lithium batteries cheaper by the day mean that Alberta’s favorite product will become a stranded asset in the future. Of course, some people who think they are Very Clever People will say “but rubber and plastic and many things are made with crude oil!!” While this is true, two thirds of oil is used for transportation. Demand destruction of this sector will mean the high cost oil sands will be the first to nosedive.

Also, when you add up direct and indirect contributions, isn’t something like 20% of the Canadian economy real estate that is propped up by cheap money and FOMO?

Garth, this is a roundabout way of saying that it seems like the Canadian economy is screwed in the long term. Am I wrong?

#35 Dolce Vita on 12.05.21 at 4:23 pm

#11 SP

“It’ll always be N+1…”

I howled when I read that. Fields Medal goes to you.

THAT was hilarious.

Some terrific Comments today by people that seldom do so.

——————

Siddall is correct. The alternative will be the early ’80s all over again.

Anyone that lived thru that will tell you it is better to tax principal residence capital gains and cool the market off slowly.

—-

Good foment job today Garth.

#36 Patel on 12.05.21 at 4:25 pm

I work for a large telecom company in Toronto as a contract employee, and I had to argue with the unionized full-time Manager that their lateness policy is unfair due to having to do COVID protocols before entering the workplace.

Guess what? The unionized Manager threatened to revoke my breaks, in front of everyone, in a meeting LOL.
These large Toronto companies are not happy with the minimum wage increase.

#37 Shawn Allen on 12.05.21 at 4:28 pm

Seize the Day

Somewhere out there there must be ambitious people breaking ground to add to the housing supply where there is demand.

Some groups will be building giant apartment and/or condo complexes. At the other end of the scale some people will be creating an apartment in their basement or over their garage or even just deciding to rent out their spare room in Kelowna. Opportunity abounds for ambitious people.

Surely bulldozers and carpenters are busy?

#38 willworkforpickles on 12.05.21 at 4:28 pm

When the national debt level becomes a national security issue, it sends shock waves beyond its borders.
Canada…much affected, like it or not – operates as a tiny cell within the US economic shell.
With the national debt increased to and increasing as it is, this poses what is perceived to be, a perpetual risk of the government defaulting on its debt.
Building pressure on the treasury dept. to raise the yield on newly issued treasury securities to attract new investors will (has started to) force their hand to do just that.
With this measure there will be a reduction in the amount of tax revenue available to spend on other governmental services because more tax revenue will have to be paid out as interest on the national debt.
It’s going to affect the common man with killer taxes and higher interest rates to come.
With rates on treasury securities increasing… corporations operating in America will be looked upon with more risk attached pushing the yield on newly issued bonds higher.
This in turn will push corporations to raise the price of their products/services to match their increasing costs and the common man will be getting hit with still more rising inflation.
With the yield bumping up on treasury securities, the cost of borrowing money to purchase RE will increase because the cost of money in the mortgage lending market is directly tied to the short-term interest rates set by the Fed (as you all know here) .
Increasing interest rates will push RE prices down as prospective buyers won’t qualify for astronomical high priced out (RE) with the cost of mortgages rising with rates.
Will there be downward pressure on the value of homes.
Not according to those who own or recently bought RE around here. (panicky wishful thinking) .

I’m sorry to burst your bubbles again with grim tidbits for “the troubled future of real estate” days that lay ahead …..but

….well, really…..
nah
I’m not.

#39 Richard L on 12.05.21 at 4:29 pm

Apart from real estate transactions, there are only 3 forms of business left in Canada:

1. Tim Hortons
2. Starbucks
3. Cannibis retailers

#40 Wrk.dover on 12.05.21 at 4:31 pm

Mobile homes are functional in frigid Ft. Mac.

In USA, there are states with swaths of them large enough to intimidate an F-5 tornado, because that is all they can afford…..

Mobile homes in K-W, Kelowna, 416/905? NIMBY huh?

#41 UPenuff on 12.05.21 at 4:32 pm

So Govt announces 6% unemployment rate in our great country. But we have all seen the Help Wanted signs everywhere!

So does this mean that 6% percent of our society just doesn’t have what it takes to be part of the labour force, due to physical/mental capabilities, addictions etc….???

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.21 at 4:33 pm

@#24 Rosco

No thanks.
Have and anti vaxx nutbar neighbor trying to drop off free “Druthers”.
More anti vaxx drivel.
Good for emergency toilet paper and/ or fire starter.
However.
I was impressed with the latest Newspaper photo.
They managed to find enough people with full sets of teef.

#43 DLT INC on 12.05.21 at 4:35 pm

The bottom line is that the political system we have is just not working. The typical response to this statement is that ” It might not be perfect but it’s better than any other system.” I beg to differ. First off, what we DO NOT HAVE is the ultimate in democracy.
Why, whenever the politicians want to have a serious conversation who do they first go to? Why the movers and shakers, of course, which is totally understandable because they hold the purse strings of the major political parties and if a policy negatively affects the super wealthy’s nest eggs, then it doesn’t matter how many of the masses want a certain course of action, such a policy will not happen.
So we will never see the elimination of CMHC which protects the major banks from the risk of house owners defaulting on their mortgages. House prices would crash if interest rates rose to levels in line with risk and banks would be severely impacted. Of course, the economy would also crash, but people would still have to be housed. There certainly would be a change in our country and maybe everything would go to hell. Is there a way out without this happening?
Maybe, but maybe not. Viruses, climate change, these are only transitory, No? Conventional economists seem to think that things are back on track, now that the corporation’s bottom lines are humming along. They basically seem to ignore the long term risks of pandemics and global warming.
Think about the fact that everyone is not on the same side. Everyone, I suspect, is not 100% focused on eliminating the current pandemic. I just had my 3rd shot, Will there be a 4th, 5th, 6th, etc? A lot of profits to be made here. Is it true that the contract that Canada made with Moderna and Pfsizer was at premium prices with a ban on giving any extra doses we may have to third world countries. I sure hope we haven’t agreed to something so disgusting.

#44 Boosters..galore contd on 12.05.21 at 4:36 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#45 JSS on 12.05.21 at 4:43 pm

Edmonton cheapest real estate among major cities in Canada. High salaries. Job market slowly getting better.

Invest in Toronto. Live in Edmonton

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.21 at 4:44 pm

@#39 Richard L
“Apart from real estate transactions, there are only 3 forms of business left in Canada:”

++++

True.
But we have the legions of bureaucrats that “exist” to regulate them.
Property inspectors.
Building inspectors.
Health Inspectors.
Garbage inspectors.
Business License Inspectors.
Fire Inspectors.
Sign inspectors.
Provincial Tax audits.
Federal Tax audits.
Work Safe Inspectors.
Dept or Transportation Inspectors.
Quality Control Inspectors.
Human Rights Tribunals.
On and on and on it goes……until people are fed up and leave.
To be replaced by the Wal Marts and the Home Depots that can afford to deal with these endless, useless legions of paper pushing sloths that care not one whit about the companies they harass and drive away.
Its just a mindless job.

#47 NewWest on 12.05.21 at 4:53 pm

#11 SP on 12.05.21 at 3:03 pm

Now we all have to get three doses, too. – Garth

It’ll always be N+1. Doses, covid waves, years of pandemic, you name it.
You still have any trust left in our “health authorities” Garth?

————————-

Nothing to do with the health authorities. It’s the nature of the virus. Flu shots are available annually, every year a different mix of strains depending on what went on in Australia’s winter. We as a species develop increasing immunity, the virus attenuates, and we reach a steady state. That’s how it will be with Covid, eventually.

Flu is also a nasty disease, but thankfully not politicized, so people suck it up and get the shot (a booster, as it were, building on previous years immunity). Getting a flu shot doesn’t mean you get designated to one or the other political teams, even though there are requirements for many people getting one, and even though people still die from the flu (unless we take measures against respiratory viruses, like we have the past two years, in which case few people die of it. Who knew?!?!). One of these days I’m hoping to be able to say the same about coronavirus.

If I’ve learned one thing over the past two years it’s how woefully under-educated the general population is about anything science-based. Not saying you have to have a PhD, but a little curiosity and scientific literacy goes a long way to making everyone’s life easier.

#48 Dolce Vita on 12.05.21 at 4:56 pm

Surprise, surprise Europa Virus Porn…

Italia cases dropped a bit today and since I was at the Il Sole 24 Ore BUG web page this morning CET, I decided to do some mouse-overs of other Europa countries to see their Cases per 100K relative to Italia’s 167 which I thought was high.

1st 4 are Italia’s immediate neighbors.

Slovenia 628
Austria 672
Switzerland 668
France 441
Croatia 688
Germany 474
Netherlands 886
Belgium 1,086
United Kingdom 463
Czech Republic 1,115
Slovakia 1,442
Greece 403

And a few of those countries in lockdown.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/03/covid-19-spike-felt-across-europe-as-vaccination-remains-stagnant

Spain at 154 then again look at their tests/1,000 and it becomes clear how they achieved that remarkable number (28.6% of Italia and 18.3% of UK test rates *):

https://i.imgur.com/otrNMve.png

————–

The COLD and COVID of Europa will be vacationing you know where to feel safe and warm up if for just a few days.

So far, Italia has managed with a Green Pass and some simple protection measures vs. the rest of the craziness in Europa AND of course, a 99.98% compliant populace.

* Spain’s N. American testing Comrades in Arms…

Canada = 24% of Italy, 16% of UK [makes Spain look a testing powerhouse]
USA = 31% of Italy, 20% of UK

What they don’t know may or may not hurt them.

#49 Bezengy on 12.05.21 at 4:57 pm

Justin and his left hand man Jagmeet have caused a lot of pain to lower income folks. They’ve literally allowed house prices and subsequently rent to double since 2015. I’m sure there are millions of renters in this country who are terrified of the prospect of having to change apartments and face a 100 percent rent increase. It’s like the Trudeau-Singh tag team took a baseball bat and smashed the kneecaps of these folks, and it’s not over yet. Unintended or not, the pain they’ve caused is unforgivable. Worst yet is that they did it almost solely for selfish political gain. I hope the folks feeling the pain direct their anger in the right direction as its going to get ugly.

#50 Alberta Ed on 12.05.21 at 5:05 pm

We have a prime minister who doesn’t “think about monetary policy” yet spends taxpayers’ money like a drunken sailor, and a finance minister who doesn’t understand that government squandering causes inflation. What could go wrong?

#51 The Wealth Effect on 12.05.21 at 5:05 pm

Boosting home prices is smart politics. Canada doesn’t really have much in terms of industry. But the vast majority, close to 70% of adults, own homes. Keep the home prices rising, keep people feeling wealthy and like financial geniuses, and keep getting elected. What’s the alternative?

#52 Stone on 12.05.21 at 5:12 pm

#41 UPenuff on 12.05.21 at 4:32 pm
So Govt announces 6% unemployment rate in our great country. But we have all seen the Help Wanted signs everywhere!

So does this mean that 6% percent of our society just doesn’t have what it takes to be part of the labour force, due to physical/mental capabilities, addictions etc….???

———

It’s possible. It’s also possible these 6% are so wealthy that working is a waste of their time and they prefer to do something more enriching.

You know, when $50,000-$100,000/month rolls in from a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio, is going to work your primary objective in life?

#53 cuke and tomato picker on 12.05.21 at 5:14 pm

Are there any Vancouver Canuck fans out there it was
a sad night last night. I plan to cheer for them from vhistle to vhistle. Enjoyed today in the sun walking the
wonderful waterfront in Sidney B.C.

#54 Dave on 12.05.21 at 5:34 pm

Fear not because Justin has his strong manly hands firmly on the wheel of the Good Ship Canada steering us safely around all the economic icebergs. Above in the crows nest Chrystia the Impaler is giving advice as to which direction to steer us. Justin has his shirt unbuttoned exposing his ripped abs and his fluffy manly chest hairs fluttering in the breeze.

#55 Wrk.dover on 12.05.21 at 5:44 pm

I googled; 7.5% of homes in USA are mobile homes

4.06 million of them.

As I say, because it is all they can afford.

But Canada has more borrow wiggle.

Mysterious!

#56 THE DANDADA on 12.05.21 at 5:48 pm

MONEY PRINTER GO BBBRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!

#57 Nonplused on 12.05.21 at 5:50 pm

““Why don’t we tax gains on houses the way we tax gains on other investments? It’s a serious, non-progressive situation in our tax code. Politicians just aren’t allowed to have this conversation because the opposition, and it’s any colour, will skewer them for it. And so we don’t have the debate we have to have.””

We do tax every single sort of real estate investment out there, except primary residences. This is because primary residences are not investments, they are a place to live and thus a consumer item.

So the situation we have now is that houses are unaffordable to first time buyers, or so all the first time buyers say after they go ahead and buy a house anyway. But if we start taxing primary residences, it may be that houses also become unaffordable to those who already own them. By that I mean people won’t be able to afford to move for work, downsizing, etc. because the tax bill must be paid, and the only way to pay it will be to add the tax bill to the next mortgage. You think people can’t afford to move now? Add a $50,000 tax bill to the process and see what happens.

You can’t make something more affordable by taxing it.

It is really amazing that people are floating this idea as some sort of magic bullet, when clearly it can do nothing but raise the overall cost of ownership, and it isn’t the problem in the first place.

The first problem that needs to be addressed is the lack of supply, and that is occurring at the municipal level. Zoning regulations and bureaucratic delays are the chief causes of the problem. But the developers love it, and because they finance many municipal elections the problem isn’t going away.

The second problem is of course interest rates. Houses, especially first time buyers, are financed based on the monthly. A low interest rate combined with restricted supply will always cause high prices.

If there really was a widespread will to reduce the cost of housing, the solution is more availability (i.e. build more) combined with the end of near free money. Nobody wants to do either.

#58 millmech on 12.05.21 at 5:55 pm

All the people posting about adding more supply to cool the market, it is too late. Ask anyone what they invest in, what has had the best returns and what they will continue to invest in, it is real estate. Just reading the gains one is making every month you would have to be a fool to invest in any other asset.
The vast majority of the workers at my work own multiple properties, all principal residences in family members names, just raking in the cash. As soon as a prebuild is announced or they hear of one coming they are all in on it.
Realistically if a medical specialist is looking at various countries to move to why come here because our house prices are some of the highest in the world and we will tax over half their income away.

#59 crossbordershopper on 12.05.21 at 5:55 pm

you can always move to small town saskatchewan. I can get you a place for 89K not bad of a little place.
you can tax pr as capital gain, cristialize it to a date then some sliding scale. sure, then no one would ever sell, like ever.
my 18 year old daughter will live there for the next 70 years. just like in europe, people living in the same home for multiple generations. just look at ny city, rent control creates situation where people on paper anyway, never move, live 50 years, kids take over the lease but still in parents name.
people would just borrow against the house to live somewhere else never cristalizing a gain.

#60 DON on 12.05.21 at 6:15 pm

@Diamond Dog

Your last post was a good breakdown and read. Thank you, answered my road block with the current price of gas.

Nothing to add. cheers!

#61 Penny Henny on 12.05.21 at 6:19 pm

#52 Stone on 12.05.21 at 5:12 pm
#41 UPenuff on 12.05.21 at 4:32 pm
So Govt announces 6% unemployment rate in our great country. But we have all seen the Help Wanted signs everywhere!

So does this mean that 6% percent of our society just doesn’t have what it takes to be part of the labour force, due to physical/mental capabilities, addictions etc….???

———

It’s possible. It’s also possible these 6% are so wealthy that working is a waste of their time and they prefer to do something more enriching.
///////////////////

Hey Stoner!
For someone who likes to come off as enlightened you do realize that those who are not seeking work are not counted on the unemployment rate.

You do know this right?

#62 R on 12.05.21 at 6:20 pm

34Caffeine Monkey:
I agree with you that EVs ,solar and batteries will be the future. I believe your timeline is conservative. I think by 2025, the writing on the wall will be obvious. Legacy auto makers will be desparate. Biden’s pre bankruptcy bailout UAW EV tax credits will not be enough to save them. Don’t believe Mary Barra when she says GM is the leader of Electric Vehicles. Her interview on CN(BS) was embarassing. IMHO.

#63 Lee on 12.05.21 at 6:25 pm

This is how crazy it’s gotten. In my hood, a builder sold homes in 2011 for $400,000 or so, worth about $500,000 by closing in 2014. They’re now selling for $1,800,000. In about 10 years buyers turned a $100,000 down payment into about a $1,300,000 profit after commissions and mortgage. I suspect it’ll continue unabated and these homes will fetch $3,000,000 to $4,000,000 in ten years. Too many people making wads off of real estate for it not to continue for at least another decade. Interest rates are a slow moving disaster. People will figure out how to manage it.

#64 Upenuff on 12.05.21 at 6:41 pm

#52 Stone on 12.05.21 at 5:12 pm

So does this mean that 6% percent of our society just doesn’t have what it takes to be part of the labour force, due to physical/mental capabilities, addictions etc….???

———

It’s possible. It’s also possible these 6% are so wealthy that working is a waste of their time and they prefer to do something more enriching.

You know, when $50,000-$100,000/month rolls in from a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio, is going to work your primary objective in life?
********************************************

Nice! They must have Garth looking after their portfolios.

#65 espressobob on 12.05.21 at 6:49 pm

All I want for Xmas is a booster and a jug of Jack Daniels. Problem is for some reason JD ain’t available at the local LCBO.

A supply chain issue? Yeah right, sounds more like Tennessee whisky repression…

#66 Paterfamilias on 12.05.21 at 6:51 pm

# 57. Nonplused. You are correct, you can make nothing more affordable by taxing it. The only thing ever created by government over-regulation is a shortage.

However, it is not correct that taxing principal residences will do nothing but raise the cost of home ownership. It will also, in the short term at least, produce greater revenue for government (i.e. the party responsible for house-inflation in the first instance) and you have to know to which bunch that must seem like a great idea.

Previously, with public sentiment leaning that way, the principal residence exemption was sacrosanct. If sufficient impetus gets behind a roar that life is not fair, you can be certain a particular crowd will see the large light at the intersection shift from red to green.

#67 Drinking on 12.05.21 at 7:02 pm

I say just let it go up,up,up until it explodes. For us that are just trying to pay our utility bills and have a decent meal, stock up on sales, buy less expensive beer, food, grow your own, fish, hunt, listen to all out there that take advantage of apps that save dollars (please share those apps with all) and let the cow dung fall where it may.

We are so far gone as a society, politics, greed that this needs to happen.

I am very optimistic that it will all turn out for the best, let it ride, prepare and F them!!!

#68 Sail Away on 12.05.21 at 7:02 pm

Covid is not the problem. Oh no. Nor the rich, nor taxation.

The problem, the unending, grindingly simple, enormously prolific problem, is… stupid people:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/967554/the-five-universal-laws-of-human-stupidity/amp/

Higher beings are continually weighed down by a kicking, screaming, whining congregation of the stupid. People who expend enormous energy to make others’ lives difficult for no benefit to themselves.

#69 IM in C on 12.05.21 at 7:06 pm

how will you fix this housing crisis? Just get everyone from St. John;s to Victoria to stop buying houses. Just stop.
Ya right !!

#70 leebow on 12.05.21 at 7:07 pm

Oh no. Why don’t we see the invisible hand of the market?

There never was a riot because of too high interest rates. But food riots are a pretty regular thing in history. It’s fair to say that most often governments get beheaded because of hunger, taxes, war or a combination thereof.

I really do feel for ODSP people. Probably the only category of folks who don’t deserve what’s coming.

#71 BCWally on 12.05.21 at 7:21 pm

I’m wondering when the liberal government is going to clue in on taxation of rental income for landlords not reporting on rental condos and houses to stay slightly cash positive.
If you really wanted to get all the tax money out of that, and free up housing for purchasing Liberal style, it’s the easiest thing.
Just announce you want to help renters as they have been ignored in favor of would be home owners for financial aid.
So, offer a rent subsidy. Just tell us who you are paying rent to, and we’ll cover a portion of that to help you out according to your income.
Then get the CRA to see who’s reporting that income and who is not.
The end game is renter votes, full on NDP support, and full taxation collected looking like an angel. Oh and likely lots of real estate available to buy.
If you have been honest with reporting that income, no sweat, right ?
I guess this is why I will never, ever, ever get to be elected to anything :)

#72 Linda on 12.05.21 at 7:37 pm

#36 ‘Patel’ – an empty threat. Under Ontario labor law, all employees regardless of status (contract; union; temporary etc.) are entitled to a 30 minute break after 5 hours of work. A 10 hour work day would therefore trigger two (2) separate 30 minute breaks. The employer can state when the break will occur but neither the employer or any manager who works for said employer can ‘take’ said break away. If they did, you can lay a complaint against them. Oh, they’d fire you? Can you say ‘wrongful dismissal’?

#73 Ed on 12.05.21 at 7:47 pm

Why is everyone moving to Mexico? How can I go too ,just want to move my home & assets but keep my health care.

#74 Smartalox on 12.05.21 at 7:51 pm

@BC Wally:

Ontario used to do something similar on its provincial tax returns. Rent payers could claim a minor tax credit against provincial tax payable, by filling in their address, the rent paid, and their landlord’s information.

Not that it was ever acted upon, since the information was written into the forms by hand so they could only be read manually, and could not be easily cross referenced for investigative purposes. The landlords also provided rent receipts as well.

#75 TurnerNation on 12.05.21 at 7:53 pm

— Ahh our world class health care system we pay mucho bucks for.
Let’s fire our Healthcare Heros and watch the system collapse.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/with-about-3000-staff-unvaccinated-ahs-delays-jab-mandate-until-dec-13
“The provincial government directed the health authority’s policy changes after about 3,000 AHS staff either did not provide proof of vaccination or decided not to get the shot ahead of the Nov. 30 deadline. That deadline has been extended to Dec. 13. “”

.Canadian employers, facing labor shortage, accommodate the unvaccinated (ottawacitizen.com)


— Science in Kanada. Page 2 – is Ontario baking up the numbers by testing the <20 year olds?

https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-report-en-2021-12-03.pdf

– Parents confirm this. (Have a good Christmas kids- You must never again know normalcy. Look what Santa got you!). From social media in Ontario:

"Our school board is sending home a 5-test kit over Christmas break w/ each kid so they can test to see if they are ok to come back to school in January or not. All this will do is drive up the numbers …. & shut schools. I hope no one does the tests"

@adriennelesage Replying to @erdocAA @fordnation @Sflecce
I have two different friends that had their children sent home this week to get Covid tests and isolate for a week regardless of result because of one positive case in the class. The entire class had to do this! This is absolute lunacy and needs to end!


— World:

– New Zealand, almost back to normal! Prisons are being converted into CV Camps.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2021/12/02/inmates-at-risk-if-prison-youth-units-close-advocate/
"Advocates say some of our most vulnerable prison inmates could be put at risk if two youth units in Christchurch and Hawke’s Bay are closed to make way for Covid quarantine facilities." "Fears turning Christchurch youth prisons into COVID-19 facilities could ruin young offenders' rehab"

#76 the jaguar on 12.05.21 at 8:15 pm

Flew into Hogtown today on a B-787-9. 255 peeps and one Jaguar on board. Both airports ‘a buzz’ with activity.
OmniCovid, your fifteen minutes of fame are almost up!
There will be no white flag of surrender.

Next stop: toes in the sand.

#77 millmech on 12.05.21 at 8:19 pm

So on average a house is now returning $1000/day or $40/hr every hour, tax free per house, why work as you are better off just being an owner.
All those tax free gains rolling in and the math is even better with four or five primary residences especially if those are “occupied” by “family” and income is not reported.
Even if real estate goes down the taxpayer is on the hook for it so if a large correction occurs people can just declare insolvency and walk away with no repercussions.
Why even own equities, because as soon as they even go down a little the narrative is how volatile and unsafe the “rigged” market is. This is reinforced by the media using words like “plunge, devastating, crippling to describe normal corrections.
People can not lose in this market.

#78 Nonplused on 12.05.21 at 8:22 pm

#52 Stone on 12.05.21 at 5:12 pm
#41 UPenuff on 12.05.21 at 4:32 pm
So Govt announces 6% unemployment rate in our great country. But we have all seen the Help Wanted signs everywhere!

So does this mean that 6% percent of our society just doesn’t have what it takes to be part of the labour force, due to physical/mental capabilities, addictions etc….???

———

It’s possible. It’s also possible these 6% are so wealthy that working is a waste of their time and they prefer to do something more enriching.

You know, when $50,000-$100,000/month rolls in from a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio, is going to work your primary objective in life?

—————————————–

Wait, whaaat? 6% of the population is banking $50,000 to $100,000 a month?????

I think you made that up.

#79 60 Minutes on 12.05.21 at 8:40 pm

Did you guys see 60 Minutes about China today?

Shutting down monopolistic worker and middle class crushing companies.

Making the 1% give back all the wealth they’ve made by extracting the 99% productivity.

Shutting down delivery companies because they create slave labour.

Closing 150B tutoring industry exploiting education system and students.

Passing a law that Chinese children can play video games for 3 hours a week only, and only on weekends.

Of course Evergrande.

Gotta tell you, they are definitely highlighting the rot of capitalism and rot of the western politicians with some of these actions.

Americans interviewed proclaimed it all as Chinese propaganda. Is it really?

#80 yvr_lurker on 12.05.21 at 8:40 pm

#72 Linda
If they did, you can lay a complaint against them. Oh, they’d fire you? Can you say ‘wrongful dismissal’?
——-
I think you live in a land that does not exist: The employer generally has all the power and the 30 minute break I’m sure is a fiction in many jobs and, although it is technically a requirment, it would be unenforcable in the end. Just this week, an employer in the US had the “class” of firing on mass 900 employees invited to a zoom meeting:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/05/business/better-ceo-fires-employees/index.html

Please explain what regulatory body is going to enforce the 30 minute break rule or check whether employees are dismissed at whim.

Bottom line is for each individual to continue acquiring valuable skills and to be at the forefront of their field (keeping up with innovations), and to continue to seek new opportunities where their skill will be well-rewarded if a current employer is a complete ass (or perhaps venture off on their own). Loyalty to an employer only up to some point and jump ship if a better opportunity arises.

#81 Drinking on 12.05.21 at 8:50 pm

#73 Ed

I am no means an expert; never been to Mexico, the new Mexicans in Canada that I have run across are very friendly and always try to teach me a lesson or two on there language. We laugh about it all the time; especially them at me trying as hard as I can with a terrible English accent to communicate with them; I am hopeless but I try,lol!

Think about it, Mexican prices are so much lower then ours. This myth about Canadian free health care is just that. I know of so many that felt that it was more of a savings to have dental work done including a two week vacation in Mexico, mind you they did there home work but the savings from a Canadian having dentures or major dental work was more and I mean more then enough to pay for flights, accommodation’s and vacation while recovering. Internet is a wonderful tool as well as contacts.

There are so many people going to Europe, US and Mexico for procedures for huge savings or life saving surgeries. Canada does not have a good health care system; many pros are burnt out, quitting, patients waiting years for a simple procedure, ever try and see a specialist in this country, the waiting list is enough to kill you, unfortunately it happens all the time.

Let it ride, changes are coming!!!

#82 Patel on 12.05.21 at 8:52 pm

Linda,
The unionized Manager told me that we shouldn’t follow every law that benefits employees.

#83 LeeBee on 12.05.21 at 8:56 pm

#57 Nonplussed

The first problem that needs to be addressed is the lack of supply, and that is occurring at the municipal level. Zoning regulations and bureaucratic delays are the chief causes of the problem. But the developers love it, and because they finance many municipal elections the problem isn’t going away.

Why the hell would developers love not being able to build ? Can’t build can’t sell and can’t make any money .

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.21 at 8:58 pm

#29 Quintilian on 12.05.21 at 4:12 pm
“The Libs will be dragged kicking and screaming to raise interest rates because…..the international bond and money markets will demand it.”

To0 funny CEF.

You are stuck in the 70’s text book theories.
The world has changed.
———————–
What text books are you talking about?
CEF is an Autodidact, who despises text books and teachers.

#85 Prince Polo on 12.05.21 at 9:07 pm

#52 Stone on 12.05.21 at 5:12 pm
It’s possible. It’s also possible these 6% are so wealthy that working is a waste of their time and they prefer to do something more enriching.

You know, when $50,000-$100,000/month rolls in from a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio, is going to work your primary objective in life?

Six percent of Canadians have passive investments that generate $600K-1.2M/yr in income?! YOWZA!!!

#86 miketheengineer on 12.05.21 at 9:10 pm

Hey Garth:

What’s the beef on Evergrande? I am hearing lots of doom and gloom with this. What is your take on it, and if there will be any fallout in Canada. Would you be willing to comment on it?

Mike

#87 Drinking on 12.05.21 at 9:11 pm

#77 millmech

I am not sure about that; a country can only print so many dollars. It will collapse, unfortunately it will hurt every single one of us!

#88 willworkforpickles on 12.05.21 at 9:24 pm

RE has just about had its run in making people real money.
Now rising interest rates will make for making even more money.
The pendulum is about to swing away from RE profits and towards interest rate generating wealth.
This will be real estates turn to suffer.

#89 Do we all the facts on 12.05.21 at 9:29 pm

Have a peek at the current Government of Canada debt management strategy if you want to see a snowplough in action. As old debt comes due the Government of Canada replaces it with new debt and adds new debt to cover budget deficits. Any increased debt servicing costs due to higher interest rates will just added to future budgetary deficits.

There is absolutely no plan to reduce the total debt over the next five years in fact it seems probable that the next five years could add an additional $300 billion to the total debt of the Government of Canada.

There seems to be the feeling that annual debt servicing costs will be maintained at around $22 billion per year as old debt is replaced with new debt at lower interest rates.
Very little discussion in the current strategy about the impact of future increases in the cost of borrowing. No need for details just keep ploughing.

The belief that governments can cover budgetary deficits with additional debt because the current interest rate on government bonds will remain low is as foolish as paying $1,000,000 for a $700,000 home because a five year mortgage at current mortgage rates makes it possible.

As inflation increases investors will demand a higher rate of return to offset potential risk. There is a reason government bonds are rated and I cannot be the only person who feels that a debt management strategy based on a snowplough may not be worthy of a AAA rating for much longer.

#90 SP on 12.05.21 at 9:45 pm

#47 NewWest on 12.05.21 at 4:53 pm

Flu is also a nasty disease, but thankfully not politicized, so people suck it up and get the shot (a booster, as it were, building on previous years immunity).

——————–
Well, influenza is not politicized because it doesn’t cause any large-scale mandates (for masks, vaccines, quarantine, travel, etc). There are vaccine requirements in some cases, but the scale is not comparable with covid’s; apart from that, nobody forces anyone to do anything.
Therefore, since everybody is pretty much free to choose what to do, there is no ground for disagreement between social/political groups.

I wish covid was handled the same way – but it’s too late for that.

#91 Barb on 12.05.21 at 10:21 pm

“versus the amount of money people aren’t making on their homes that rent them….”
———————

That’s an easy one.
“their homes”? No.
The homes are not theirs.

So Evan Siddall thinks “inequality” will be fixed by giving the government more money.

Yes, just like carbon taxes do…
ha ha

#92 Jane24 on 12.05.21 at 11:04 pm

Son age 36 has had enough of rainy Britain and is off to Cambodia for the winter as soon as he gets his booster. 2 weeks till his booster as 35 to 39 year olds start being called in next week and then 2 weeks for it to kick in means he should be off at the end of the month. He says that you get a one month visa in Cambodia with auto renewal for a max of 11 months.

Now I mention this becasue I am shocked with awe at the one bed rental flats he is showing me with maid and fab pool for $200 US a month all in. You don’t have to shovel snow for the next 5 months. You could live like a king in a warm climate for nearly nothing. Your choice.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.21 at 11:05 pm

#55 Wrk.dover on 12.05.21 at 5:44 pm
I googled; 7.5% of homes in USA are mobile homes

4.06 million of them.
As I say, because it is all they can afford.
But Canada has more borrow wiggle.

Mysterious!
———-
Nothing mysterious.
People here always mention how cheap houses are in the USA.
Those are the “mobile” houses they are referring to.
The wealth gap in the States is yuuge.

#94 Mr Fox on 12.05.21 at 11:12 pm

Houses going up again? What a surprise!

#95 Jest Trade on 12.05.21 at 11:21 pm

64 Upenuff on 12.05.21 at 6:41 pm
#52 Stone on 12.05.21 at 5:12 pm

So does this mean that 6% percent of our society just doesn’t have what it takes to be part of the labour force, due to physical/mental capabilities, addictions etc….???

———

It’s possible. It’s also possible these 6% are so wealthy that working is a waste of their time and they prefer to do something more enriching.

You know, when $50,000-$100,000/month rolls in from a balanced and diversified ETF portfolio, is going to work your primary objective in life?
********************************************

Nice! They must have Garth looking after their portfolios.

—————————————-

Nah…they’re all using Quest Trade!!! It’s all about the fees. The only way to bring in that kind of dough is bringing down the fees. Didn’t you hear…that’s what all the co-workers are raving about.

Just watch their dumbass commercials and you too can be bringing in $50-$100k a month on a b&d portfolio! Lol

#96 Tax avoidance on 12.05.21 at 11:26 pm

**Not syre if this message was posted with the other Name I used, but un case it wasn’t, submityung it one more time***
Recently one of my friends said how his parents avoid paying taxes on investment properties. His parents live together but officially are divorced. Now, his father plans to sell an investment property in a year or so. First, he will sell this property to his wife for the money he bought the house for. Then she will “move” officially into that house as the primary residence. She’s holding it for one year and selling it. Tada! No taxes paid.

#97 westcdn on 12.05.21 at 11:26 pm

I got a letter from God knows where. The author said I was the sole heir to an estate. I wrote back, tell me more. Anyway, I thought let’s see where this goes.

Finally he wanted money to register my claim. I said it would not happen and pay up yourself as I had agreed to a 20% finders fee. I have not heard back since. I have to admire the effort put into it for a month.

I have done well with preferred shares. I am now looking at bank shares. I am thinking PIC.A is a good proxy although it is a covered call mutual fund investing in CDN banks. Choose your fate.

I tend to be gong-ho because I not afraid of death. I have always believed in a higher power that I have to answer. How I die is a different matter.

#98 Linda on 12.05.21 at 11:49 pm

#82 ‘Patel’ – you have rights. If you choose not to exercise them that is your choice. Your managers opinion about law is not relevant. What you choose to do is.

#80 ‘yvr’ – haven’t you been following the news? Labor shortage? Balance of power has shifted. Yes, it won’t last – or maybe it will. Seems like lots of folks are using the opportunity to change jobs, hopefully for the better. Carpe diem & all that.

#99 AM in MN on 12.05.21 at 11:51 pm

It only gets worse from here.

The Liberals can keep printing money to buy love, as long as the stupid voters (most) keep voting for it.

Like any 3rd world country, a large slice goes to them and their friends.

They can’t get over themselves with trying to destroy the industrial economy. Maybe one day people decide they don’t like poverty, things might change, but as long as the cash is flowing so easily, and many people can’t tell the difference between living on cash you have instead cash you owe, nothing changes.

One simple fix might be for provinces to tax residential RE much higher, but give a deduction for any provincial income taxes paid. Dampen the party a bit for the flippers and those looking for a tax free retirement.

#100 Charger on 12.06.21 at 12:06 am

Risk off. BTC tanks hard. EM ETF in the toilet. SoftBank softens considerably, flaccid. Evergrande is burned toast. Ever heard of ‘Sunshine 100’? There are hundreds of ‘Evergrandes’ going nipples up in China and nobody hears of them.

Buying ‘ off plan’ in China means ‘ paying full price up from in advance. Millions of investors and owners have lost everything. China is bullshitting around the calamity by allowing the developers to issue ‘bonds’ which are essentially worth zero. Total losses are a financial volcano bubbling up through a collapsing lava dome. This is why XI is suddenly retrenching …. Likely to make it all disappear from oversight.

How many Chinese Canadians put their life savings into safe Chinese developments that are now bankrupt? There must be a lot of soiled shorts in the community who rely on remittances from their now underwater “faux investments”?

China is repatriating US listed companies before disclosure requirements show a hollow house of cards. Didi made no bones as to why they had to blow town. Hahahaha, China thinks that we’ll be fooled by the HK listing. As if HK isn’t just another slave colony now. There is no longer any independent oversight in HK…or should we start referring to it as they now do in China…” The Greater Bay Area. HK has been zapped like a bug.

Blah blah blah. How is this going to effect our foreign investment real estate/business culture in Canada now that millions of Chinese are swept off the table? Will Canadians hold the gasbag afloat without help from abroad?

Risk off?

#101 Leftover on 12.06.21 at 12:08 am

Wanna solve a bunch of problems in one swipe? Eliminate the PRE in phases:

1 – 2022 – no change, full exemption
2 – 2023 – 50% exemption from capital gains tax
3 – 2024 – no exemption, houses taxed like other assets

Listings go up (a lot!), tax revenues spike just when they need to, and investment equilibrium is reached.

Trifecta.

#102 The West on 12.06.21 at 12:26 am

Your kennels comfy for Christmas yet? They aren’t quite finished demolishing what little is left of the “old world”. Our children are growing up and normalizing QR Codes, Centrally Planned Economies and the suspension of our liberties because “emergency measures had to be taken”.

Good for most of you in steerage…all the fake money you call “investments” mean you get the better end of the extinction burst.

There is an old Russian saying: “After us, the deluge.” Cheers it over your Christmas wine.

#103 Midnights on 12.06.21 at 12:27 am

I didn’t vote Liberal, lol. Sorry about people and their problems. As for those people talking taxing housing, lmbo. People of means will just offset that or roll it into the price.

#104 W.Smith on 12.06.21 at 12:27 am

Greater Fool Indeed..

“Day and night the telescreens bruised your ears with statistics proving that people today had more food, more clothes, better houses, better recreations—that they lived longer, worked shorter hours, were bigger, healthier, stronger, happier, more intelligent, better educated, than the people of fifty years ago.”

– George Orwell, ‘1984’.

The young need to rise up!

#105 Yuus bin Haad on 12.06.21 at 12:36 am

My opening play was ONCOMIR for the double-word, the 50 point bonus, and my opponent lost his turn due to an uninformed challenge

#106 Michael in-north-york on 12.06.21 at 1:01 am

#29 Quintilian on 12.05.21 at 4:12 pm

Bonds are no longer controlled by the free market.

They are controlled by Central Bankers and their farcical expanding balance sheets.
===

To a point, yes. But that’s irrelevant.

If the government emits more money than it takes back in taxes etc, then private investors need to give their earned money back to the government in exchange for bonds. Otherwise, the amount of money in circulation will increase and that will cause fast inflation.

“Transactions” between the Government and the Central Bank cannot change that reality. When the Central Bank “buys” the government bonds, it doesn’t siphon the previously issued money out of circulation. Instead, the Central Bank creates new money and, by the act of “buying” the government bonds, allows the government to spend that new money immediately. That’s all.

In order to prevent or limit inflation, you need someone who earns the money and then chooses to give them back to the government (in exchange for bonds), instead of buying goods. That someone can only be private investor. Once the public debt reaches the level where the private investors begin to doubt the government’s solvency, they will reduce their bond buying. Then we will be in trouble.

#107 Greg on 12.06.21 at 1:20 am

Mexico is great until you want a drink of tap water or to flush the toilet paper.

#108 Overheardyou on 12.06.21 at 1:22 am

I wonder if there are stats on how many current homeowners are using their HELOCS to fund their house/living expenses…clearly that must be the only way to use unearned equity as cash accounts.

#109 Kelowna virus on 12.06.21 at 1:27 am

#33 Dave on 12.05.21 at 4:19 pm

Kelowna is ground zero for climate change. Forest fire risk of the charts. Even if your place doesn’t get torched, how many weeks of smoke are you going to breath every summer? Only a fool would buy there now.

————
Sorry you missed out Dave! Perhaps in your next lifetime.

But I do have an empty bedroom in the basement I could rent you for more than you make a month …. if that works for you.

#110 Kiril Peev on 12.06.21 at 3:08 am

The Ottawa real estate market posted another solid month of activity for November 2021. Overall the market was slightly up when compared to October 2021. On a year to year comparison prices were up about 20%. The biggest gains for November 2021 were seen in condos with month to month prices up about $28,000.

Inventory remains very low and demand is still strong. If inventory levels follow the same trends as last year, I am expecting another record spring market. Mortgage rate increases seem to have done little to reign in demand.

You can see the number breakdowns below:

https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-market-update-november-2021/

#111 willworkforpickles on 12.06.21 at 5:56 am

With rising interest rates expected to affect the markets of the future, keep a close watch on (Financials to excel) and high tech companies specifically regarding Advanced Volumetric Display…

#112 willworkforpickles on 12.06.21 at 6:42 am

A somewhat nice house for $800,000.00 CAD.
…a bit steep in price but prices will be coming down soon enough.

https://www.howardhanna.com/Property/Detail/220-S-Huron-Street-Ypsilanti-MI-48197/AnnArborMI/3283657

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.21 at 7:36 am

@#29 Quintillians in Debt
“They are controlled by Central Bankers and their farcical expanding balance sheets.”

+++

Poe-Tay-toe….Poe-Tah-toe.
Either way the non finance Finance Minister will get to watch interest rates rise and the house of cards fall.
Just watch . The Libs will blame the Banks.

@#84 Ponzies Place

Riding another persons bandwagon again ponzie?

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.21 at 7:49 am

Recyclable cardboard cups or hard plastic mugs passed back and forth during covid?
The self back patters at tone deaf Vancouver City Hall have found another “tax” they can proclaim is “green”.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/12/05/mugsharing-vancouver-disposable-cups/

Well Done Van “Sh!tty” Hall…. a new low in stupidity under the green guise.

#115 chalkie on 12.06.21 at 7:59 am

Like “yesteryears”, not many wise ones are listening to the old man any more, but the dark cloud is closing in folks and when it comes, its going to pour cats and dogs. Hang on to your britches, because this storm is going to wash away from your recent home investments right from your pockets, even if you have them sewed up.

#116 westcdn on 12.06.21 at 8:03 am

Fortune is fickle for me. I win some and lose others. It is life and I will bore you. I was wrong about natural gas price and commodities in general – today. I am still learning when to fight or cut and run.

Poker is a game. You do not want to be the sucker.

#117 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 8:50 am

#97 Tax avoidance on 12.05.21 at 11:26 pm

Recently one of my friends said how his parents avoid paying taxes on investment properties. His parents live together but officially are divorced. Now, his father plans to sell an investment property in a year or so. First, he will sell this property to his wife for the money he bought the house for. Then she will “move” officially into that house as the primary residence. She’s holding it for one year and selling it. Tada! No taxes paid.

———

See what happens when the ex-wife sells the house in two years and pockets all the cash with her new boy toy.

I guess the ex-husband could always sue for breach of agreement? Oh, wait, it was an agreement to commit felony fraud.

Sure, that can’t go wrong..

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.21 at 9:00 am

@#108 Greg
“Mexico is great until you want a drink of tap water or to flush the toilet paper.”

+++

So I can blame Montezuma’s revenge on Covid?

Snowing in Burnaby …. and its sticking.
Check out the traffic cams about 9am West Coast time for….. Car-mageddon…..

#119 Griffith on 12.06.21 at 9:14 am

If I bought a stock, and it doubled in value in a few years, I would have to pay capital gains tax. My investment would’ve also helped a company grow, creating products people want, and jobs people need.

Meanwhile, if I had a home that doubled in value in a few years, I would pay zero in tax. Maybe in that time frame I didn’t have to do any renovations or big maintenance. I created no jobs and helped no companies. But I did get a tax free windfall.

Makes very little sense.

#120 Dharma Bum on 12.06.21 at 10:08 am

#30 CJohn C

Surprised Garth let that slip by.

‘Me too.” – Garth
——————————————————————————————————

There’s, like, a whole movement for that.

#121 Sweet Italian life on 12.06.21 at 10:20 am

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.21 at 10:40 am

#108 Greg on 12.06.21 at 1:20 am
Mexico is great until you want a drink of tap water or to flush the toilet paper.
————————-
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.21 at 10:45 am

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.21 at 9:00 am
@#108 Greg
“Mexico is great until you want a drink of tap water or to flush the toilet paper.”

+++

So I can blame Montezuma’s revenge on Covid?

Snowing in Burnaby …. and its sticking.
Check out the traffic cams about 9am West Coast time for….. Car-mageddon…..
——————-
Let it snow. Let it snow.
Work from home. Work from home.

#124 Dharma Bum on 12.06.21 at 10:48 am

#93 Jane 24

He says that you get a one month visa in Cambodia with auto renewal for a max of 11 months.

Now I mention this becasue I am shocked with awe at the one bed rental flats he is showing me with maid and fab pool for $200 US a month all in. You don’t have to shovel snow for the next 5 months. You could live like a king in a warm climate for nearly nothing. Your choice.
——————————————————————————————————-

I choose to stay away from that swamp!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugz3UhPhgrE

#125 NoName on 12.06.21 at 11:12 am

Funny, especially when you know that vast majority of trafes are wash trades…

https://mobile.twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1467813330039586820/photo/1

#126 Shawn Allen on 12.06.21 at 11:15 am

Follow the Money

#119 Griffith on 12.06.21 at 9:14 am
If I bought a stock, and it doubled in value in a few years, I would have to pay capital gains tax. My investment would’ve also helped a company grow, creating products people want, and jobs people need.

*********************************
No, (with rare exceptions) your money went to whomever you bought the shares from, not the company. Many companies are not issuing shares but are buying them back.

#127 NoName on 12.06.21 at 11:20 am

Wash trades reference to this paper.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.10984

#128 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.21 at 11:20 am

#124 Dharma Bum on 12.06.21 at 10:48 am
#93 Jane 24

He says that you get a one month visa in Cambodia with auto renewal for a max of 11 months.

Now I mention this becasue I am shocked with awe at the one bed rental flats he is showing me with maid and fab pool for $200 US a month all in. You don’t have to shovel snow for the next 5 months. You could live like a king in a warm climate for nearly nothing. Your choice.
——————————————————————————————————-

I choose to stay away from that swamp!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugz3UhPhgrE
————————
Thailand getting too expensive now?
A 36 year old male, in his prime, should be working productively, not wasting away in some swamp.
I heard, Col. Kurtz is still hiding out in the Jungle.
And Pol Pot is not what you think it is.

#129 Shawn Allen on 12.06.21 at 11:20 am

#107 Michael in-north-york on 12.06.21 at 1:01 am

“Transactions” between the Government and the Central Bank cannot change that reality. When the Central Bank “buys” the government bonds, it doesn’t siphon the previously issued money out of circulation. Instead, the Central Bank creates new money and, by the act of “buying” the government bonds, allows the government to spend that new money immediately. That’s all.

******************
I like your analysis. I like the idea of basically following the debits and credits of money creation. I was looking the other day for a graph of the increase in the Canadian money supply M2.

All I can find on Bank of Canada site is a hard to interpret chart that shows the percent increase each year. I want to see a graph of the total money supply over the years. Anyone know where to find it?

Here is the relatively useless Bank of Canada one:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/monetary-aggregates/

#130 Brett in Calgary on 12.06.21 at 11:24 am

I believe you are correct about folks not recognizing the beginning of an exponential curve, but folks also fail to recognize the limitations of physics/nature.

Even if we mine the entire Congo, we will be miles short of having enough cobalt and nickel to electrify even a fraction of the fleet on earth. Congrats to Norway as they got the rare earths first, perhaps they can work on mining space rocks because we will need them for the green hopes and dreams.

As for 2/3 of the oil/gas being used for transportation, not sure about that. I can’t remember the exact stats from Bill Gate’s recent book, but according to him manufacturing of steel and concrete was by far the largest contributor to CO2 emissions and carbon fuel consumption. Transportation was 3rd behind these two. Last I checked there is a lot of concrete in a windmill.

—————————————————
#34 Caffeine Monkey on 12.05.21 at 4:20 pm
People always have difficulty recognizing exponential growth at the beginning of a curve, but that’s where we are with electric vehicles, which will dominate vehicle sales in a couple decades. Skeptics only need to look at Norway for evidence.

Similar market forces that are making solar, wind, and lithium batteries cheaper by the day mean that Alberta’s favorite product will become a stranded asset in the future. Of course, some people who think they are Very Clever People will say “but rubber and plastic and many things are made with crude oil!!” While this is true, two thirds of oil is used for transportation. Demand destruction of this sector will mean the high cost oil sands will be the first to nosedive.

Also, when you add up direct and indirect contributions, isn’t something like 20% of the Canadian economy real estate that is propped up by cheap money and FOMO?

Garth, this is a roundabout way of saying that it seems like the Canadian economy is screwed in the long term. Am I wrong?

#131 Quintilian on 12.06.21 at 11:33 am

#107 Michael in-north-york
I also agree with you to a point.

But the central bankers, can suppress rates.

The slimy BOC accomplishes this in many ways, for example it buys mortgages from the banks, it bundles them and sells them at a premium which drives the price up and the yield down.

The central bankers can increase the money supply indirectly.

Since the RE market has been juiced up, many curmudgeons can tap into HELOC’s and create money as they tap into their “hard-earned” equity. (Which is actually theft from future generations)

Here is what the BOC caption on their website reads:

“We are Canada’s central bank. We work to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low and stable.”

To me that is a lie, and so I don’t believe the rest of their story.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/

#132 DON on 12.06.21 at 11:45 am

79 60 Minutes on 12.05.21 at 8:40 pm
Did you guys see 60 Minutes about China today?

Shutting down monopolistic worker and middle class crushing companies.

Making the 1% give back all the wealth they’ve made by extracting the 99% productivity.

Shutting down delivery companies because they create slave labour.

Closing 150B tutoring industry exploiting education system and students.

Passing a law that Chinese children can play video games for 3 hours a week only, and only on weekends.

Of course Evergrande.

Gotta tell you, they are definitely highlighting the rot of capitalism and rot of the western politicians with some of these actions.

Americans interviewed proclaimed it all as Chinese propaganda. Is it really?

***********

Yup…for the past 8 months China has been worried about inequality leading to unrest.

Much different than 2008.

#133 Don Guillermo on 12.06.21 at 12:23 pm

#124 Dharma Bum on 12.06.21 at 10:48 am
#93 Jane 24

He says that you get a one month visa in Cambodia with auto renewal for a max of 11 months.

Now I mention this becasue I am shocked with awe at the one bed rental flats he is showing me with maid and fab pool for $200 US a month all in. You don’t have to shovel snow for the next 5 months. You could live like a king in a warm climate for nearly nothing. Your choice.
——————————————————————————————————-

I choose to stay away from that swamp!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugz3UhPhgrE
*****************************

Looks like a good Tuesday in Abbotsford.

#134 Steven Rowlandson on 12.06.21 at 12:26 pm

“What will she do next week? Don’t hold your breath. Nobody in Ottawa has the stones to act.”

Those with the authority won’t and those who would do something are prohibited, censored and ridiculed or slandered. All that this nation stood for is in the dust bin of history and the barbarians have come out of the closet and are showing their true colors. RED

#135 westcdn on 12.06.21 at 12:31 pm

I don’t know why but the women in my life have been tough. My aunt Nikki would even pick the eyes out of my mashed potatoes she served me. “Where is he and does he have a screwdriver?” She was so American. I called her her loud and proud. She became the tupperware queen of Vancouver. My mother was crushed when she died early of alzheimers and I cried in my own way.

Women can become matriarchs with multiple children. You don’t want to mess with them if you are decent.

It looks like I was wrong with natural gas prices. It will have to join the line of my missed calls. I have not lost all my faith. It takes a pretty big bear to shake me out of a tree and I will strive to land on my feet.

Markets are weird. I am going to have to trust my instincts.

#136 Sail Away on 12.06.21 at 1:20 pm

#135 westcdn on 12.06.21 at 12:31 pm

It looks like I was wrong with natural gas prices. It will have to join the line of my missed calls.

Markets are weird. I am going to have to trust my instincts.

——–

What’s your instinct track record? Was the natural gas thing done on instinct?

#137 Shawn Allen on 12.06.21 at 2:09 pm

What creates new money?

Money is created when:

1. People, corporations or other entities borrow from banks

2. A bank buys a newly issued government bond. In effect this is the same as number 1, it is the government borrowing from a bank.

3. The central bank buys a newly issued bond directly from government. This is the government borrowing from the central bank. The government can transfer the deposit created at the central bank to a commercial bank and issue cheques.

4. The central bank buys existing government bonds from people, companies or other entities (NOT including banks).

Money is not created when:

1. People, corporations or other non-bank entities buy newly issued bonds from government. (Existing deposit amounts merely get transferred to government, no new deposits are created.)

2. The Central Bank buys an existing bond from a bank. The bank gets reserves at the central bank but those are not counted as part of the money supply. This does count as injecting liquidity since the bank has added ability to make loans. But especially if the bank was not constrained in its loan making this does not directly cause the bank to make new loans and create money.

#138 Squire on 12.06.21 at 4:46 pm

#17 Duffy on 12.05.21 at 3:08 pm
Soon the drunken party will be over and the only sign of the liberal leader will be the faint smell of jet exhaust.
—————————————————————-
I’ll say it again, JT is fixing to pull a McGuinty. Place your bets, place your bets…

#139 greaterfool on 12.06.21 at 10:18 pm

it is a supply-demand problem. increasing supply is a long shot, and demand is triggered by FOMO and what happened last 5-10 years — almost guaranteed tax-free profit! so tax the gain (thus reduce the demand) is the way to go, but not gonna happen, majority (>70%) are multiple-property RE owners)

Rate has to go significantly higher to have any meaningful impacts to RE. So RE is too-big-to-fail, and also it is too big so not gonna fail.

but the bubble is fragile, it will burst, just no ones knows when and how.