Was Omicron an omiflop?
Maybe. Maybe not. Viruses are dodgy, icky, unpredictable little peckers, so the jury’s still out
But when the markets opened Monday, oil rebounded, stocks went up, bonds went down and we got back to worrying about inflation, the Coquihalla and corporate earnings. Was the Friday sell-off a one-day correction? Is the reopening trade so strong it can power through this variant and the next two or three?
Yep. Seems so.
Now the attention of Canadian investors will be diverted for at least a few days by the giant, gleaming, 15%-occupied bank towers where the pandemic ended up being excellent news. In case you missed it, the Toronto stock market has been on steroids for the past year, rising faster than a slanty semi in Leslieville and reaffirming the wisdom of keeping a third of the 60% growth portion of your balanced portfolio in maple despite Canada being just 4% of the world’s equity market.
But it all gets more intense on Tuesday. That’s when the first of the Big 6 announces profits and (especially) dividends. Expect some gushers.
The backstory is all about the pandemic. In March of 2020, when the world looked dark, Canada’s financial regulator took steps to protect the banking system. Nothing is more central to the health and viability of the economy than the banks. They’re legally designated as “domestic systemically important” or D-SIB – and that’s why there are formal ‘bail-in’ provisions now in place virtually eliminating the chance of failure, wiping out your pathetic GICs.
The regulator banned higher dividends during Covid forcing the banks to sit on cash. They also made it illegal during this time for the bankers to buy back their own stock, also to preserve capital. Meanwhile the bankers themselves set aside billions of dollars to cover losses from loans that would go south as consumers and businesses hit a viral wall and were unable to service their debts.
What happened?
Nothingburger. Those giant losses never occurred. Instead the government bailed out everybody, transferring the pain from the banks to the taxpayers. At the same time Canadians lost their minds, were infected with FOMO and aggressive nesting, created a real estate bubble and borrowed for mortgages as never before. So in the past 18 months residential and home-equity credit balances mushroomed by more than $150 billion. That was all new debt to consumers, but new assets for the bankers. It represented an astonishing 13% growth in in the banks’ portfolios, and was six times higher than the increase from other operations.
Now, here we are. Despite omiflop, Covid-19 is effectively over as far as markets are concerned. Employment is back at pre-pandemic levels. Consumer spending is ramping up. The housing insanity continues. GDP is amping. And – as we are about to hear – the dudes in the Bay Street towers are rolling in it.
Ah yes, and the regulator just announced the ban on divvies is over.
As a result, analysts are expecting a dividend tsunami. Increases should range from 10% (Scotia) to 22% (RBC) to 34% (National). The average is anticipated to be about 18%. In addition, we expect to hear word of buybacks as the Bix Six reduce their floats by as much as 5%. Buybacks mean less stock is available for public trade, which makes all outstanding shares more dear, adding value to existing shareholders.
Higher dividends. Big profits. Rising share values. How could it get any better?
Source: Bloomberg
Actually it does. Interest rates are going up. No variant varmint is going to stop that from happening as inflation makes a 25-year comeback, meaning CBs have to suck stimulus out of the economy. Whenever the hikes arrive, they will help the bankers with spreads and bottom lines. Just imagine the gloriousness of all those tens of billions of 2% mortgages renewing in a few years at 4% and 5%. It’s enough to arouse any guy in a suit.
For the market, all good. Financials make up 30% of the TSX, compared with 10% for tech and just 3% for real estate. Combined with the rising value of commodities as the world gets vaxed and reopens, there’s still a lot to love about investing in Canada. The best way of doing this is through an ETF holding the biggest publicly-traded corps, which will give lots of exposure to the financial giants as well as the rocks and trees (and Shopify).
Own the banks. Just don’t invest there.
84 comments ↓
What about CIBC with all of its mortgage exposure? If you think housing is overvalued and people took on too much debt is this not a risk for the bank that holds the most residential mortgages in Canada?
CMHC. – Garth
Lock the third class below deck, the establishment needs the lifeboats……
You will own nothing and you will be happy.
Omnicron? Omicron.
By Omicron’s golden claw, I concur!
It’s all about that branding! Powerful people love to name stuff.
Did you wonder why they skipped Nu and Xi on the way to Omicron?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-why-who-skipped-nu-xi-in-naming-new-coronavirus-variant-omicron/
>
Social-media users correctly noted, however, that the organization skipped two letters in doing so, leading to questions about the move.
Here’s what we know about how Omicron ended up with its name.
CLAIM: The World Health Organization has labelled the new strain the “Omicron” variant, skipping over “Nu” and “Xi” without explanation.
#97 Blobby on 11.29.21 at 2:48 am
Surely if politicians wanted to fix this, and they don’t – as they don’t want to be in power when housing crashes.
.. two easy fixes?
1. Tax “gifts” from relatives as an inheritance tax
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Well, Christmas just got a lot more complicated. And remember the money has already been taxed. And where does the enforcement stop? If I buy my daughter a car so she can get to school, does that also get some sort of tax?
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2. Heavily tax 3rd + properties.. or at very least, remove the tax incentives (such as writing off interest)
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You don’t “write off” interest. It is a legitimate business expense, and occurs on the balance sheet before you get to “taxable income”. All businesses treat it this way, and no other way makes sense. You can’t be declaring profits before you have paid all your expenses unless you are committing some sort of fraud.
So what you are proposing is a special rule that makes the tax treatment for small operators, moms and pops trying to get ahead through real estate, impossible, while allowing leveraged REITs and other businesses to carry on as per normal. You want to take away a business opportunity from the 99% but not the 1%. How is that helping anyone? Did you even think this through?
In order to be just, a law must apply equally to everybody. That means if you want to eliminate the current treatment of loans for small business operations like a single rental property or even the 4th, you must eliminate that treatment through the whole tax code, right on up to big business. Economic havoc would result, as no companies would be able to stay in business.
Folks, your “right” (it’s not really a right more of an opportunity) to engage in small business activities and potentially grow them is a lot more important to both yourself and the economy than your desire to make sure nobody else gets ahead just because you aren’t. If you don’t own a rental property or a franchise or maybe your own truck, that’s nobody’s fault but your own.
Funny as only South Park can do!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzEoBrr9gRA
And I thought the stock markets would spiral downward until a general assessment of the new variant disclosed it was mostly ‘more of the same’. Shows how much us mere mortals know!
Here’s what the big bad boomers don’t realize about millennial investors: They don’t care. They don’t value money. They’ve had everything handed to them on a silver platter. High paying tech jobs they can work for out of their jammies at home. Equity based compensation. They’ve been desensitized to upswings and downswings due to crypto. 2% “correction”? A correction is 50% in the beady millennial’s eyes . And even then, 50%? No sweats. The millennial didn’t even _need_ the money anyways. The only hobby the millennial has is a 10$ per month gaming habit, and will never have children to take care of because no self respecting father will allow his daughter to marry one.
More money? No problem. No money? No problem.
Millennials will eclipse boomers as the most entitled & well off generation. Jhon deer tractor and 2 acre lawn here I come!
Identity of the beautiful puppy dog?
I love it when you get cocky Garth, “Omniflop”. Give him some bank earnings and he’s a happy guy.
Find it on your own people…
“Thus, the proportion of the population that is fully protected (‘immune’) against infection and further transmission must be quite high. If we assume Ω * = 75%, we get an immune evasion of 93% (95% CI: 32-100%), i.e., Omicron evades protective immunity in 93% of individuals.”
In case you missed the key words:
“Omicron evades protective immunity in 93% of individuals.” [Ω = 75%] **
And again,
“Omicron evades protective immunity in 93% of individuals.” [Ω = 75%] **
Sequencing wise, Omicron is just a floatin’ around doin’ it’s own thing from the rest of the sheeple variants:
https://i.imgur.com/moBewGQ.png
* Ω being the proportion of the population that has fully protective immunity against infection with earlier variants. For Ω = 90%, we obtain an immune evasion of 31% ***.
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Despite all that, I reinvested my November 23.6% dividend yield haul (threadbare portfolio) into more ETF purchases today. Hail Garth.
Except when he and Mr. Market become Virologists, Immunologists. I trust in Science and those with many degrees in that.
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Almost forgot per CTV Vax tracker today:
** Canada Ω = 75.74%
*** Ω = 90% in Canada a long country mile away.
total flop
nobody gets its name right
Where’s Bankish
Former commenter Bankish was I believe extremely heavily invested in the Canadian banks. Is he still around? Did he change his name to Richish?
Im waiting patiently for my raise . I own shares in 5 banks . Overweight in that green one . Hope its in the 20 % range like Royal .
“created a real estate bubble”
Yep, it was created last year.
#121 Dorky on 11.29.21 at 2:15 pm
Your post made a distinction between ‘Chinese’ and ‘Canadians’. Be careful. – Garth
Why does he need to “be careful”? It’s a perfectly valid observation and if you could get you head out of your ass you’d know (as you probably already do) that offshore chinese are to a large extent responsible for high housing prices in Canada.
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What an a$$!
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#55 Sail Away on 11.28.21 at 6:56 pm
What I learned from CBC: The place you will get CV, and get sick (and probably die!) is in the small businesses, specifcally small locally-run restaurants.
Never while in the workplace. Or on packed trains, planes and busses. Nor in taxis. Or in Condos, Apartment buildings; elevators; Nope to big box stores. Only in the fun places. The instant you let your guard down and thumb your nose at the CV Rules (The Rules Which Keep Us Safe) and have some fun then BAM. Frequent flyer points in the ICU. Case in point:
.COVID-19 exposure at Shoeless Joe’s Belleville Hastings Prince Edward Public Health is advising of a COVID-19 exposure at Shoeless Joe’s restaurant in Bellev…
(quintenews.com)
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—In other news, for the second year running we have erradicated the common flu! Well done. No thanks to Fizer, either.
23 ‘cases’ (remember those haha). Science in Kanada:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/flu-influenza/influenza-surveillance/weekly-influenza-reports.html
“In week 46, a total of 23 influenza detections (16 influenza A and 7 influenza B) were reported”
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–Voluntary! lol. I’m flipping that right now. We are ‘this’ close to back to normal. I can feel it!!
(But the “Hospital Capacity” guys??)
“Government of Canada Announces Funding for COVID-19 Safe Voluntary Isolation Sites in British Columbia”
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2021/11/government-of-canada-announces-funding-for-covid-19-safe-voluntary-isolation-sites-in-british-columbia.html November 26, 2021
Omicron sounds like the name of an autobot from a Transformer movie!
As Garth once said (loosely), “Average people put money in the bank; wealthy people own the bank!”
One of the best pieces of advice ever from this blog.
“The regulator banned higher dividends during Covid forcing the banks to sit on cash.”
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Still wondering why the IMF “suggested” over a year ago that banks should stop paying dividends. Entirely.
Never heard more about it.
Inflation of asset will continue no matter what the interest rate go to, people haven’t bought their houses to default on them so anyone waiting for collapse has to wait till interest rates jump to like 6-7% because of it goes to that point than there will be a big recession and we all know by now that bailouts work perfectly fine during downturns and governments and banks won’t even blink to provide bailouts for anyone and everyone. The end.
re: Just imagine the gloriousness of all those tens of billions of 2% mortgages renewing in a few years at 4% and 5%. It’s enough to arouse any guy in a suit.
yeah really, enticed millions into hugely inflated mortgages with emergency teaser interest rates that will only pay the banks more in the future
#5: That’s what Xi said…
Seems that voices are beginning to echo the fragility of the Canadian housing market: https://thepostmillennial.com/bank-regulators-warn-that-housing-crash
So, we have a mutant virus communicated to the world 80 hours ago, it has been discovered in Canada 24 hours ago, and everyone brushing this off as if the pandemic is over or is a nothing burger.
This proves what a failure the transportation networks are.
This just got a whole lot more problematic as Japan is the latest to shutter its borders to foreigners.
It is kind of foolish to brush this off given the fact that the world knows relatively little about what this mutant strain can do.
I think the markets will take any excuse to flat-line rates forever and bring back stimulus – that is their drug to keep them high; however, this approach is long term pain for short term gain. Short sighted can kicking…5, 10 years.
Humans travelling around the world does not work in a pandemic of climate change era.
Global trade and supplies coming from abroad, yes. Humans frolicking and travelling around on planes and in cars to get to an office for work, spreading germs and adding carbon to the atmosphere, no.
The world is changing. Where are you going, son?
#21 MD on 11.29.21 at 5:39 pm
Inflation of asset will continue no matter what the interest rate go to, people haven’t bought their houses to default on them so anyone waiting for collapse has to wait till interest rates jump to like 6-7% because of it goes to that point than there will be a big recession and we all know by now that bailouts work perfectly fine during downturns and governments and banks won’t even blink to provide bailouts for anyone and everyone. The end.
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Actually … that was the beginning, middle and end!
Two minutes for illegal use of Engrish language.
“Instead the government bailed out everybody”
No, just the opportunists. I generally relied on work, savings and some limited help from NGOs. No CERB or government loans. What do Canadians know about restraint and sacrifice? Too many are spoiled rotten and easily deceived.
Have you not heard my dear inspiring host; the WHO (not the great band) warns of high infection rates of this, not Nu or Xi (drumrolls) but this new highly infectious latest version of Covid 2.1,3.1 or is it 4.1 (Omicron) that will destroy everything that people saved; may as well just move to the forest and build a shelter. Omicron, or whatever they call it two years from now will have us all walking around like zombies with all the shots that we have had, lol!
“One swallow does not make a summer”
Any suggestions for an ETF that reflects those exposures?
Ya….I’m looking for free advice
But the banks are made of marble,
With a guard at every door,
And the vaults are stuffed with silver,
That the miner sweated for.
I’ve seen my brothers working
Throughout this mighty land;
I prayed we’d get together,
And together make a stand.
Then we’d own those banks of marble,
With a guard at every door;
And we’d share those vaults of silver,
That we have sweated for.
tbone on 11.29.21 at 3:52 pm
Im waiting patiently for my raise . I own shares in 5 banks . Overweight in that green one . Hope its in the 20 % range like Royal .
***************
One word ..ZEB
I guess by now most of you have figured out the anagram
Both words earn a 50 point bonus when played
So what happens if/when ETF’s aren’t sexy anymore – which, in all likelihood, will happen. One could say that too much ETF exposure is akin to too many eggs?
I got burned when mutual funds went south a while back…they were the rage!( Which probably means, that everyone over 40 who reads your blog, and had a little $$$, could relate with :)) But things turned sour. For me, “Once bitten twice shy”.
So ETF’s are now the rage…what’s the if/whenner plan?
Og
#33 ogdoad on 11.29.21 at 8:12 pm
So what happens if/when ETF’s aren’t sexy anymore – which, in all likelihood, will happen. One could say that too much ETF exposure is akin to too many eggs?
I got burned when mutual funds went south a while back…they were the rage!( Which probably means, that everyone over 40 who reads your blog, and had a little $$$, could relate with :)) But things turned sour. For me, “Once bitten twice shy”.
So ETF’s are now the rage…what’s the if/whenner plan?
ETF is a just a structure for the underlying securities my dude. Same as a mutual fund is a structure for holding securities. ETFs are intrinsically better because they’re easier to trade (any time market is open), they are (potentially) more tax efficient, and fees are tiny. Mutual funds are not necessarily bad but most of them are too expensive for what they provide.
Sure, if you held a tech mutual fund in 2000 you got slaughtered, but that’s a result of the securities held, not the mutual fund itself.
(Fun look back: I just remembered there was an Altamira Science and Technology fund back in the day. Apparently now acquired by National Bank. The chart is something spectacular, having just recently in summer 2021 passed the all time high from 2000.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/funds/NBC879.CF/
)
Economic Lockdowns, again? These are permanent and rolling. That is not meant to ‘be over soon’ or ‘normal’
Why BC, NB, NS et all have been divided into “Health Zones”. For your health Comrade.
.Ontario preparing ‘enhanced strategy’ to fight COVID-19’s Omicron variant (thespec.com)
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But wW knew this already. Remember there no longer is new only manufacturing of consent.
From last week:
#6 TurnerNation on 11.25.21 at 3:47 pm
“…The Liberals are proposing to send income-support payments of $300 per week to workers who find themselves off the job because of a “Covid-19-related public health
lockdown in their region” between now and spring 2022.” (investmentexecutive.com)
—
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Science in Kanada. In 2022 you test for something which for a majority of people is mild to medium and to which you probably already were exposed, seeing as it’s been around since late 2019.
But you *do not* test for a leading and sometimes hereditary cause of death – like Cancer. Got it??
Gee it’s almost like they just want us drugged and sick.
.I took a post-vaccination antibody test. Should you? (nationalpost.com)
— Written one year ago…what has changed? It’s worse now.
#1 TurnerNation on 12.28.20 at 10:49 am
What does it mean that the Old System must be torn down? We’re not even 1 year into this…and these predictive ‘opinion’ pieces appear daily. It begins with what children will be taught. No old system stuff, only the New System and the Global CV protocols.
Remember, the Pfizer will be with you. Always.
#25 Garth’s Son Drake on 11.29.21 at 6:47 pm
So, we have a mutant virus communicated to the world 80 hours ago, it has been discovered in Canada 24 hours ago, and everyone brushing this off as if the pandemic is over or is a nothing burger.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Listen, the MSM is in full on FUD mode, same as it was for the past 20 months if you can actually think that far. The sheer amount of BS is sky high on both sides; actual evidence based science has been replaced by the political heavy ‘Science TM’.
Stonks are just an analogue of the easy money and short term headlines, same as it ever was. Rates are still deeply negative real term and pull backs of 2% are nothing.
Again the virus is going to virus, people are stupid.
But when the markets opened Monday, oil rebounded, stocks went up, bonds went down.
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Damn, I was upset to see that and was hoping the drop would continue this week so I could score some good deals. As I said, that drop on Friday was a tempest in a teapot. Nothing at all to see here, just keep the line moving.
Seems to me that if the coronavirus with endless variants is here to stay society is going to simply deal with the fallout & move forward. So yes, panic bumps due to bad news – also nothing new – but then a rebound as the new risk is factored into the mix. Nothing new about that either.
One thing about the virus & crew – at the rate things are going, we are all of us going to sport more needles than a porcupine:)
Are the much publicized bank dividend increases already baked in? I think so. Will Tuesdays announcements be a ” Buy on rumor sell on news story”? I think so. But who am I. Mornings are when suckers and noobs pile in …the last 15 minutes will decide.
This thing will render big challenges for our current vaccines and new ones will take 6-9 months.Hold onto your hats folks,we’re going down into the depths once again.Dow 20,000 here we come.Once panic hits we may challenge the lows of 2008.Add in inflation and woes with China and the world is about to get a little more challenging.Banks will not be immune either.
As stated here, Xmas comes early!
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/its-raining-dividends-hallelujah-canadian-banks-set-to-post-strong-results
Juicy Dividends ….
One wonders how long it will take the Trudeau-nians to want to increase taxes on that…
Hmmm.
How about a retroactive tax?
Business bad.
Taxes good.
Economy toast.
Scotiabank – 11% raise! Yum yum.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-scotiabank-hikes-dividend-11-as-profit-rises-on-retail-gains-fewer-bad/
Contributors to this blog seem to view Government initiatives that provide financial support to the general population as “socialism” while Government initiatives designed to fatten the balance sheets of financial institutions and increase the value of housing as routine.
Prior to 1954 chartered banks had little interest in issuing residential mortgages. Once the Government of Canada offered to insure mortgages related to the purchase of newly constructed homes the Chartered banks became interested. After the Government of Canada began insuring mortgages for existing homes in 1979 the Chartered banks became major players in the mortgage market.
When the National Housing Act was amended in 1987 to allow financial institutions to bundle insured mortgages into NHA Mortgage Backed Securities and sell these securities to investors all risk to financial institutions disappeared. By 2009 the Government of Canada was prepared to insure up to $600 billion of mortgages issued by financial institutions leading to the sale of $134 billion of NHA MBS in 2009 alone.
In 2001 the Government of Canada authorized CMHC, through the Canada Housing Trust, to purchase NHA MBS issued by financial institutions. Once purchased the NHA MBS would be used as collateral for the issue of Canada Mortgage Bonds. The is arrangement increased the profits of financial institutions and lowered mortgage rates for Canadian homeowners.
When the financial crisis of 2008 hit the Government of Canada introduced the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program and by March 2009 the Government of Canada had purchased $114 billion of Mortgage based securities from the five largest Chartered banks. It was not called a bailout but it certainly offered a significant measure of protection in difficult times.
When the Covid 19 crisis hit in 2020 the Government of Canada resurrected the IIMP and offered to purchase a maximum of $150 billion in mortgage backed securities
issued by financial institutions. The IIMP was expanded when the Bank Of Canada began their regular weekly purchase of Canada Mortgage Bonds.
My point is that housing related initiatives introduced by the Government of Canada since 1954 have substantially increased the profitability of Canadian financial institutions. These initiatives have been good for the Canadian economy and good for many Canadian homeowners.
Maybe it is time to focus a portion of future Government of Canada initiatives on improving components of our economy other than housing.
Just a thought!
#43 Big Bucks
The existing vaccines just won’t work against omicron. They said it three days ago. I have no clue why everybody chose to ignore that report.
The Two Michaels illegal incarceration aside, the Uigher interment camps, Hong Kong’s mass arrests, the South China Sea illegal territorial grabs…
The arrogance of China’s leaders lecturing Canada on the existence of Taiwan…..begs the question…
Why are we participating in next years Winter “Show-lympics?
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/chinese-ambassador-to-canada-warns-there-is-no-room-for-compromise-on-taiwan
Newsflash Woke Warriors.
Appeasement doesnt work with bullies.
Hopefully Trudeau will grow a spine and cancel Canada’s participation in the Winter Olympics at the 11th hour.
Nothing like a Western democracy snub to really get the dictator of China’s blood pressure boiling.
About Omi. It would have to be more contagious than Delta to take over the world (just like Delta did). This remains to be seen. Virus’s in general become less deadly as they become more contagious. This also remains to be seen.
One thing that is certain is mutations. Mutations effecting immune response identifying the type of pathogen (explaining why we will need a vaccine every year or two, I intend to be vaccinated every 2nd Oct) and mutations effecting the virility of this bug.
But enough of Delta and Omi, other than to say that the long term threat of Covid19 will always be ADE:
https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/vaccine-safety/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-vaccines
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement
New variants (variations of the same strain) shouldn’t worry the markets, it’s a new strain developing that should worry. Not sure why the anti vax camp never caught on to this (perhaps it’s because they are scientifically ignorant & dumb) but even so, less virus in circulation, the less chance of a second strain so, vax away is the scientifically smart play.
But I digress. Yes, Garth is right with everything said here but I would like to caution, Banks are good with rate hikes up to a point. If rates go up too high all at once (triggered the GFC btw), a flood of bankruptcies hit crippling the banking industry. This wouldn’t be a major concern if the housing industry wasn’t in such a gasbag bubble and inflation wasn’t so high, but it is.
Commodities are also tied to the health of China which is having some real estate troubles there. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Real estate, commodities, stock market, bonds to some degrees, these market sectors are in a bubble and there are other things to worry about such as aforementioned rate hikes and inflation. All of these are first dominos, having the ability to take the rest down. Why?
High valuations. We can sugar coat it all we want, but earnings just aren’t as strong as they used to be relative to share value as S/P 500 earnings yields indicate:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-yield
Sure, earnings are strong but compared to share values, not so much (keep in mind also, the US Fed is still buying a near 1.5 trillion in bond pace annually, some 7.5% of GDP). The chart above is deceptive actually, because it’s a 12 month trailing chart. With P/E’s at near 40 times earnings, the basket of S/P 500 stocks are yielding just over 2.5%. Compare earnings to share value and it’s not sexy.
I’ve been flipping through some Warren Buffet video’s and came across this one below which nails it as an investor. I’m reminded of a comment a few weeks back about long trends, long bull and bear markets not factoring in the wild short term fluxuations in between.
There are long periods in the markets that can be quite challenging as an investor when the index doesn’t grow, or quite successful when the index grows like we’ve had for the last 12.6 years. Index funds have been the place to be but guess what, it’s rear view mirror.
“Things can go on for a long time that don’t make sense”. “Think of it like buying a business (generating 7 to 8%). Well, just watch the video. It’s prime Warren Buffet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o72rIKMQQyM
Thanks to you all, ‘honest realtors’.
Shysters stole this dying man’s home from his wife, buying it for $191,000, when comparables were going for $535,000.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/widow-alleges-dying-husband-duped-1.6266577
Despicable shysters.
#45 Crowdedliftdeviceflatulence
Business bad.
Taxes good.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7BO_hqe_q0
In 2008 the market cap of the top five Chartered Banks in Canada was $124.9 billion.
In 2009 after introduction of the Insured Mortgage Purchase Program (IMPP) by the Government of Canada the market cap of the top five Chartered banks increased by 86% to $233 billion.
In 2020 the market cap of the top five Chartered banks in Canada was $366.7 billion.
After resurrection of the IMPP by the Government of Canada in 2020 the market cap of the top five Chartered banks increased by 30% to $477.7 billion in November 2021.
I am not suggesting that the IMPP was responsible for the total increase in market cap of the top five Chartered banks but there is little doubt it was a significant factor.
Best give the support provided by the Government of Canada some credit where credit is due. Definitely not “Socialism” though.
Omicron is OMICON.
NOW IT’S FIXED.
STUPID sheep carry on with the fear
#46 Prince Polo on 11.30.21 at 7:57 am
Scotiabank – 11% raise! Yum yum.
Canada’s third-largest bank is the first to report earnings for the fiscal quarter that ended Oct. 31, and launched a plan to buy back up to 2 per cent of its common shares – about 24 million shares in total – by the end of 2022.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-scotiabank-hikes-dividend-11-as-profit-rises-on-retail-gains-fewer-bad/
++++++++++++++++++++
I noticed that as well since I own BNS stock. I guess the market was not impressed cuz the share price has dropped by about one percent so far today.
@Big Bucks, post #43:
If that happens I’ll have my finger ready to click my mouse on the buy button for stocks and ETFs. Who knows, maybe we’ll have the BEST Boxing Day sales in all of the World’s 4.5 billion years of history! Bring it on!
These are the facts:
Italy is divided in zone (white, yellow, orange and red) based on the public health system situation and on virus diffusion. Currently we have only white zones, but since the public health system is in a terrible shape from… well, from when I have memory, we are quite sure we are going to have a lot of yellow and orange zone, or even red. In each zone you have a worse limitation of your rights, from the block of some activities to a total lock down.
Currently it is mandatory a “basic” green pass (obtainable with the swab): you have to have it to work, go to restaurant, go inside offices and public buildings and so on.
From 6 December it will be mandatory also for: hotels, changing rooms for sporting activities, regional rail transport and local public transport.
From 6 December there will be also a “super” green pass (reinforced green pass), that you can have only if vaccinated or recovered from Covid. It will be mandatory to have access to shows, sporting events, indoor bars and restaurants, parties and discos, public ceremonies (activities that are allowed only in the white and yellow zone). Orange zone will have more limitations if you have not the reinforced green pass.
Compulsory vaccination will be extended to health administrative staff, teachers and school administrative staff, military, police forces, public aid…
Former Prime Minister Senator Mario Monti said (my translation, and I am not a professional) «communication as the one in time of war (…) we have to find a system that save freedom of expression but that doses information from above. (…) war information means that there is a dosage of the information, (…) find – can I say ? – less democratic ways of communication second for second», and that “journalist” commented «Interesting, this is an interesting point of view, please explain because I can see what will be said tomorrow»… Maybe we can ignore the senator’s statements, but the absence of reactions from journalists seems a symptom of something deeper and deeply troubling.
The police are searching the homes of the organizers of the demonstrations against the green pass, and is accusing them of instigating the commission of crimes. Isn’t this the typical behavior of a police state?
These are the news, and I think they are worrying news, especially in a state so easy to fall into authoritarianism (the Italians invented fascism, but they easily forget it!). Maybe I am too choosy when I thought that the things they are limiting and authorizing (and, on the contrary, forcing) were natural rights that no state could limit, authorize, force.
Now, I would like to share some feelings. I am scared. I see many friends of mine changing, and expressing violent and totalitarian ideas.
«I am happy that we are closing social life to unvaccinated, we had also too much patience», said a policeman I know well.
«A no-vax is hospitalized, God exists and know how to make his job», I heard a doctor, a good person, say.
«They should pay enormous fines and go to jail», I heard a young man say. I don’t know him, but his face was a totally normal face, a businessman in his lunch break.
Not only normal people say this things, also journalists and politicians. «They should pay for their treatment» said a journalist, forgetting that all Italians, even unvaccinated, pay an absurd taxation (by the way: it’s a theft) that should justify any treatment. But this idea was also proposed by a Lazio politician.
I could keep giving more examples, but what good would it be? I believe you have already understood.
To me, it seems like in Italy we are about to face again the banality of evil, and I am scared for my family and our future.
[email protected]
No comparisons to the 60’s.
No cobble stones unturned in Paris.
Civil rights and Vietnam riots all over the States.
Seen it all.
Further to my comment #56, stocks are down but are not dirt cheap. I’m monitoring the situation, ready to buy if any late Black Friday or early Boxing day sales show up.
Do We Have All the Facts?
He mentioned above that CMHC did not start insuring mortgages on existing homes until 1979. Interesting.
It all fits into a broader trend. The “financialization of the economy”.
Several hundred years ago money existed but most people raised their own crops and lived off the land and were in large part self-sufficient. At most a small part of their production was sold for money to buy other things. Debt and credit was largely unavailable.
Credit cards were not widespread in Canada before about 1970. Chargex was the forerunner to VISA. I’d say it was not almost universal to have a credit card until at least 1990. Today, you can’t really function in the economy without a credit card or at least a VISA debit card.
60 years ago even 50, childcare and housework existed largely outside the financial system. Now it’s almost unusual to not use daycare for kids under 5 and probably after-school care.
The point is that a higher and higher percentage of what we do has moved form doing for ourselves and barter into the world of trading for money. The availability of credit has sky-rocketed.
This trend can’t go on forever as at some point we reach virtually 100% of activity being financialized.
What are the implications?
Oh look, new info shows variant was around sooner and evaded the amazing impenetrable shield of vaccine passports and tests. I’m ready to read that it was around in September.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-omicron-covid-19-variant-was-detected-in-the-netherlands-before-south/
I think the funniest thing Omicron has done is evade the PCR test, which already wasn’t bullet proof.
Viruses are not even alive, and here they are outsmarting the smartest humans we got. Think about that for a moment.
Reminder about Covid RT-PCR:
Sensitivity of clinical samples by RT-PCR is 63% for nasal swab, 32% for pharyngeal swab, 48% for feces, 72–75% for sputum.
…yeah, 63-75%.
Consider how seriously Garth takes any insensitive remarks about Covid deaths.
Consider how the media focuses only on Covid deaths past 2 years.
Now consider if 63-75% is acceptable when lives are at stake. Would you fly with a pilot who scored 63% on his pilot license? Would you allow surgery to be performed by a doctor who got 67% in medical school? Actually, they wouldn’t be license to do either job with the marks this test gets.
But that test is OK when tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of lives are apparently on the line?
Just get vaxed. – Garth
Looks like the nothingburger was served with a side of fries today. Appears volatility will continue to be the appetizer going forward.
#48 leebow on 11.30.21 at 9:04 am
The existing vaccines just won’t work against omicron. They said it three days ago. I have no clue why everybody chose to ignore that report.
______
“They” said so? Wow, thanks for that key piece of information. What a terrific and insightful post. Silly me. I was going to listen to scientists instead of nameless people on the interweb.
#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.30.21 at 10:53 am
[email protected]
No comparisons to the 60’s.
No cobble stones unturned in Paris.
Civil rights and Vietnam riots all over the States.
Seen it all
***********************************
Comparing war and human right protests to smash n’ grab theft and vandalism? Hmmmm, bit of a stretch don’t you think?
Context is important.
Much of the muscle is from the steroids the Central Bank injections.
Add the Government world wide fiscal contributions, and you have massive hidden inflation that is translated and disguised as GDP growth.
Add the boomers who aren’t returning to work; because they think they are rich, and that gets translated into employment growth, but it is actually the curmudgeons leaving the work force.
It’s not all bad, but hype is a good portion of the bullish news.
#59 Doug in London on 11.30.21 at 11:35 am
Further to my comment #56, stocks are down but are not dirt cheap. I’m monitoring the situation, ready to buy if any late Black Friday or early Boxing day sales show up.
——-
I’m buying. US index and CP.
#59
Long way to go until we see any sales.Dow was 7300 in 2009 and what still 34,000 today.20,000 will be the time to nibble,5000 will be the time to back up the truck.With inflation roaring,lockdowns looming no reason to rush as this is going to get ultra ugly.2008/2009 will look like a garden party but what did people really expect?Free money forever?
Just get vaxed. – Garth
Not sure if you’ve seen the data to date Garth, but this Omicron puppy appears to not only be evading noted PCR tests, but natural and vaccine immunity as well.
In general, you have to admit that the western society is of the mind that a pill solves the problem.
“Here, take this in the morning and all will be fine.”
We like those simple catch-all solutions and don’t really like to do the hard work to eliminate what is causing the problems. It is really inconvenient and irritable to do otherwise. We often probably don’t like to admit that the pill is an enabler, and not a solution.
What’s that? You have high blood pressure because you eat poorly? Here, take this, and you can continue to eat poorly.
What’s that? You want to travel? Here take this shot, don’t worry that you will likely be the Petri dish upon which a variant travels and spreads.
Is Delta Plus and others so bad Garth? Is it causing issues? Is Omicron likely to? Who is moving it around the world with such ease? …just in case we want to talk about selfishness…you know what I mean?
The question was asked and no one wants to consider the answers: What if the vaccines don’t solve this thing?
Does it look to you like they will?
Clearly the markets disagree with you another tanking day tomorrow for stock market.
All this talk of speeding up tapering and raising rates sooner than anticipated. Yet my pref ETF keeps dumping.
Prefs suck. Always have, always will.
Jay Powel a party pooper, after all this partying?
#60 Shawn Allen
The point is that a higher and higher percentage of what we do has moved form doing for ourselves and barter into the world of trading for money. The availability of credit has sky-rocketed.
This trend can’t go on forever as at some point we reach virtually 100% of activity being financialized.
What are the implications?
—-
First, I want you to know I really like your posts.
Second, what an interesting point you make about our behaviour.
I have narrowed it down to one thing: laziness.
WE ARE LAZY.
Why is everything growing in value?
We are lazy, and don’t want to work.
Why is China making all our crap?
Because…let someone else make it.
Junk fashion pollutes earth and enslaves children to labour in buildings that collapse?
Dude…I want this T-Shirt to be $5…Canadian!
Why are we bringing Pilipino mothers to care for our children instead of their own back home?
Because we have no limits in our laziness. We don’t even want to deal with our own children that we squeeze out – let someone else do it, even if it means they can’t take care of their own!
Amazon?
Hey, give it to me cheap, hire someone at slave labour rates to bring it to my door, then I’ll tweet about how outraged I am at Amazon for treating people this way.
Laziness and selfishness as we are simply UNITS of CONSUMERISM.
Your little ride of the last few decades has illustrated this nicely. That it is financed by debt is…well…too much work to think about. Someone else will pay it.
One would hope that the constant threat of death during the pandemic would make us value what matters and not just consume.
Instead, it just made us consume more. And gave us an excuse not to get our own crap, but have it delivered or dropped into our trunks.
Fascinating really. Even constant threat of death and 24/7 news media death threats didn’t make us think twice about how we behave. As noted, actually the opposite. Those who refused to do the labour at less than living wages were shamed for refusing to underpin the laziness of the rest. Incredible.
And oh yeah, also this….WE’RE DOOMED!
#70 zxcvbnm on 11.30.21 at 12:34 pm
All this talk of speeding up tapering and raising rates sooner than anticipated. Yet my pref ETF keeps dumping.
Prefs suck. Always have, always will.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
My preferred Pref ETF (DXP) is up .51% today while equities dump.
#63 Love_The_Cottage
It was the South African minister of health who said it. Will that suffice? You gotta keep your eyes on the ball instead of making witty comments on internets.
#64 Don Guillermo on 11.30.21 at 12:07 pm
#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.30.21 at 10:53 am
[email protected]
No comparisons to the 60’s.
No cobble stones unturned in Paris.
Civil rights and Vietnam riots all over the States.
Seen it all
***********************************
Comparing war and human right protests to smash n’ grab theft and vandalism? Hmmmm, bit of a stretch don’t you think?
———————————
What were the George Floyd “riots”? That were condemned here.
Just hope they don’t start kidnapping rich people.
#62 NorthOf49 on 11.30.21 at 11:49 am
Looks like the nothingburger was served with a side of fries today. Appears volatility will continue to be the appetizer going forward.
———————-
Haha.
Good analogy.
A Nothing Burger with super sized fries and Coke.
Not for me , I’m on a diet.
#74 leebow on 11.30.21 at 1:09 pm
#63 Love_The_Cottage
It was the South African minister of health who said it. Will that suffice? You gotta keep your eyes on the ball instead of making witty comments on internets.
**************
Exactly…but it is much easier to be ignorant of one’s surroundings.
#60 Allan
The point is that a higher and higher percentage of what we do has moved form doing for ourselves and barter into
the world of trading for money. The availability of credit has sky-rocketed.
This trend can’t go on forever as at some point we reach virtually 100% of activity being financialized.
What are the implications?
——————————-
Well, you seem to be suggesting that overloading on credit will lead to a crash. I’d could well happen.
As with all the other crashes, the people in power did not know it was coming, or knew it was coming and hailed to act.
Crashes, by nature are always “Black Swan” events, but there are always some “experts” that “see” it coming, and then become wise man, over night.
You could be one of the.
Just keep a hard copy of your posts.
And then write a book.
#74 leebow on 11.30.21 at 1:09 pm
It was the South African minister of health who said it. Will that suffice? You gotta keep your eyes on the ball instead of making witty comments on internets.
—–
Interesting that vaccinated can strut around and feel invincible, while clearly spreading and being the containers for world distribution via travel with passports, but no one else is allowed to have same feeling – the under 19s for example who clearly are not impacted are NOT allowed to feel this way.
Garth says Omiflop, but I say, Omizing!
This thing appears to circumvent the highly regarded, bur really not so highly sensitive PCR tests AND natural and vaccine immunity.
Omicron is clearly a huge fan of Arcade Fire
…singing
“Put your money on me”
All day long.
#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.30.21 at 2:02 pm
#62 NorthOf49 on 11.30.21 at 11:49 am
Looks like the nothingburger was served with a side of fries today. Appears volatility will continue to be the appetizer going forward.
———————-
Haha.
Good analogy.
A Nothing Burger with super sized fries and Coke.
Not for me , I’m on a diet.
—–
Getting into fighting shape for the ol’ donnybrook with Sailo?
Bank stocks are too high right now…like houses.
#1 rule on Wall St….Buy on the bad news…sell on the good…
Still the stock markets aren’t down that much. It’s just another tempest in a teapot. Say, did you hear the joke about how the world would end when the date rolled over to Y2K?
Is this really how many comments there are without Faron sniping back at air’body???!!! I like a lean comments section now and then, in order to give my scrolling finger/eye-rolling a break.
Crisis? What crisis? The stock markets are up today so no bargains.