Bloviation

So a head of local lettuce was $3.50 in the downtown Toronto grocery store yesterday. “And it sucked,” Lillian says. “I know it’s November, but everything in that damn store costs more. And I still earn the same.”

The latest official inflation stats arrive on Wednesday. Will the number be 4.7% or more? Already the Bank of Canada is reacting. Rate increases, the boss said this week, “are getting closer.”

Remember that inflation last year averaged 0.72%, mortgages were 1.9% and the CERB money was flowing lustily. Now the cost of living has quadrupled, mortgages are edging towards 3%, jobs are going begging and houses cost 20% more. The yields on five-year Government of Canada debt have doubled. The central bank abruptly ended its stimulus program last month. And financial markets don’t care about the pandemic any more.

So much has changed.

In the States, too. Inflation’s running hotter than Megan Thee Stallion at 6.2%. It’s the most in more than 30 years. In fact, as bond yields rise some wags are suggesting a rotation from stocks into debt on the theory that equities are hitting the ceiling and risk-free bond interest is cool. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar has jumped this week as we hear our bankers talking about higher rates coming sooner than later.

The big question is whether or not this inflation is temporary. Because of a busted supply chain? Or people just buying pants and going back to work? An imbalance of supply and demand driving prices higher for oil, nat gas and propane? And lettuce? Or is all that CERB cash and the savings from 19 months of WFH being unleashed?

The best answer: nah, doesn’t look like it. Not short-lived. Prices may be swelling in a structural way.

Look at the stats. Over ten million unfilled jobs currently in the States. The unemployment rate there is 4.6%, compared with 14.8% during Covid. Analysts expect the jobless number to be 3.7% by mid-2022 and 3.5% by the end of next year, matching a half-century low. As the economy continues to rebound there’ll be full employment, and still millions of jobs without applicants. This is a formula for higher incomes and inflation. Also strikes and union demands. Expect the same here.

Speaking of incomes, Ontario’s move to a $15 minimum is big news. It matches Alberta, BC and the North and comes despite pleas from pandemic-whacked small business owners fearing more overhead. The extra pay may well be deserved. But it’s inflationary.

Meanwhile we all know about housing’s 20% romp in the last year and the astonishing effect the virus, WFH and competitive nesting have had on the cost of shelter. Now governments are heaping even more taxes on accommodation (spec tax, empty house tax, anti-foreign-dude taxes, sell-too-early flip tax) plus more demand (FHSA) and financing costs are increasing. All inflationary. At the same time, Ottawa is restoring immigration levels, which is good for economic growth, but also adds more price pressure.

And speaking of the feds, all that spending you’ll hear about in the coming Throne Speech, then the budget, will send the inflationary bonfire licking higher. A new report by Scotiabank economist Rebekah Young suggests piling $78 billion in extra expenditures on top of the $140 billion in new spending that was in Chrystia’s maiden budget might be stimulus we don’t need, can’t afford and will pay a big price for. The world, she adds, is different from that of last summer. “Even since the elections, we’ve seen vulnerabilities in the recovery in terms of higher inflation and severe labor shortages — so different economic issues are emerging and appearing bigger than during election time.”

So, the Lib election promises will deliver more spending, which begets higher taxes and a boodle more of inflation, which (inevitably) will beget stiffer rates which, of course, raises borrowing costs and are inflationary.

Oh, and demand for oil is at historic highs while supply has been constrained and the greenies want us all to power our Teslas with solar while nuking the resource sector. Thus, crude is on its way to $100 a barrel.

How is any of this transitory?

Go. Ask for a raise. Or find a better gig.

And speaking of that…

Astonishingly, I have a day job apart from this pathetic blog. Turner Investments now has offices in Toronto, BC and in the wee-bank-by-the-sea in NS. My colleagues and I manage well over a billion dollars for families, in the fashion that’s described here with mind-numbing regularity. Because it works. I assume everybody we care for shares the same two goals: (a) don’t lose money, and (b) get a decent rate of return. Seems reasonable.

Well, we’re expanding again and need a couple of good people. Before advertising the positions I’m open to hearing from anyone who comes here routinely, understands the plan and has qualities to offer (and hopefully a dog). We are in need of an awesome admin assistant and also an associate advisor licensed in the securities trade. Location is downtown Toronto. In an office. No sweats or yoga pants. Experience is good. Career gigs. Send me a note and your resume: [email protected]

About the picture: “Our little YoYo the American Cocker Spaniel is gracing our lives,” writes John, in Ottawa. “He’s almost 3 now; he goes everywhere with us. He’s great on the sailboat; we do try to sail fairly gently with him on-board, just to ensure that his sailing life is easy and fun. One issue with having a dog on-board, is when, for instance, motoring into the Belleville ON city marina for our very first visit, as I’m looking around for where to tie up, a fellow on the pier yells out – “Hey, there’s YoYo!”. Thanks for all you do for us, Garth.”

124 comments ↓

#1 Phylis on 11.16.21 at 2:25 pm

Hi, I use to be in the government, now I’m here to help.
https://www.cp24.com/news/new-stephen-poloz-backed-company-aims-to-make-home-ownership-more-attainable-1.5667917

#2 Polozified on 11.16.21 at 2:30 pm

I can be Turner Investments’ official real estate, crypto and gold guy.

I’ll be under a blanket outside the building.

#3 No Pants on 11.16.21 at 2:31 pm

Pants? No thanks.

WFH Forever!

#4 Prince Polo on 11.16.21 at 2:31 pm

Will you at least consider allowing sweats on casual Fridays??

#5 John Lennon on 11.16.21 at 2:32 pm

Gimme Some Truth – from album: Imagine

I’m sick and tired of hearin’ things
From uptight, short-sighted, narrow-minded, hypocritics
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth

I’ve had enough of readin’ things
By neurotic, psychotic, pig-headed politicians
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth

No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of Tricky Dicky
Is gonna mother hubbard soft soap me
With just a pocketful of hope
Money for dope
Money for rope

Woo-oo-hoo

No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of Tricky Dicky
Is gonna mother hubbard soft soap me
With just a pocketful of soap
Money for dope
Money for rope

I’m sick to death of seein’ things
From tight-lipped, condescendin’, mama’s little chauvinists
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth now

I’ve had enough of watchin’ scenes
Of schizophrenic, egocentric, paranoiac prima donnas
All I want is the truth now, now
Just gimme some truth

No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of Tricky Dicky
Is gonna mother hubbard soft soap me
With just a pocketful of soap
It’s money for dope
Money for rope

Ah, I’m sick to death of hearin’ things
From uptight, short-sighted, narrow-minded, hypocrites
All I want is the truth now
Just gimme some truth now

I’ve had enough of readin’ things
By neurotic, psychotic, pig-headed politicians
All I want is the truth now
Just gimme some truth now

All I want is the truth now
Just gimme some truth now
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
All I want is the truth

#6 WFH or Shove It! on 11.16.21 at 2:40 pm

I’ll be happy to apply, Garth.

Please be advised: I only work out of my kitchen, in my pajamas.

If you refuse to consider my application, I’ll take this up with Emma Zaun.

#7 Immigrant man on 11.16.21 at 2:49 pm

Our big international resource corporation bumped up some positions in pay. 4%. Maybe asking for a raise now is a good idea…

#8 Linda on 11.16.21 at 2:50 pm

If USA inflation is above 6%, that alone should ensure that Canada’s inflation rate(s) will continue to be higher than the target range for quite some time to come, if only because of the fact that the USA is still our biggest trading partner. So higher costs there should support higher costs here.

As for our ‘official’ number this week, if the government says it is lower than last month’s numbers they are definitely evading reality. Frankly it should read over 5% or even match the 6%+ rate the USA posted.

#9 Faron on 11.16.21 at 2:55 pm

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 12:08 pm
#123 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 11:32 am
I go to go comics political cartoons every couple of weeks, Clay Bennet is the best imo.

Matt Wuerker has one a four panel cartoon there;
1st panel: NRA guy on TV saying Carter and the dems are coming for your guns, while the young man viewer sits with a rifle
2nd panel: NRA guy on TV saying Clinton and the dems coming for your guns, while a slightly older guy cradles an assult rifle
3rd panel: NRA guy on TV, saying Obama and the dems coming for your guns, while a middle age guy holds a machine gun
4th panel: NRA guy on TV saying, Biden and the dems coming for your guns while a geezer sits under a howitzer.

My fave in the genre depicks (<— thats for you Sail Away. <3 F) a frumpy guy in a MAGA hat standing in the middle of a busy sidewalk with two rifles slung over his shoulder as people of all stripes including openly gay, Muslim, African American etc. all minding their own business walk past. Tag line is: "I feel threatened".

#10 Faron on 11.16.21 at 2:57 pm

Garth, I’d like to apply for the role of chief of pedantism at your firm. I’ll send along an application package.

#11 Yuus bin Haad on 11.16.21 at 3:06 pm

Prices outpacing wages? Hmmm …

#12 Joe Schmoe on 11.16.21 at 3:08 pm

I don’t know Garth…. You can’t really judge until you have SEEN me in my yoga pants….then you will be vindicated in your dress code.

#13 Mean Gene on 11.16.21 at 3:12 pm

Buying a head of lettuce in November… I remember in the 70’s when going grocery shopping with my mother and asking for stuff like strawberries etc and being told IT WAS OUT OF SEASON, something forgotten about the past.

#14 In Dog We Trust on 11.16.21 at 3:12 pm

C’mon with this constant BS inflation speak… Automation, Globalization and whatever other job-sucking vehicle is to arrive… There will be less and less types of work so there will be more and more peeps looking for work… Can’t see how this inflationary future everyone’s alarming about is going to be so…

#15 Sail Away on 11.16.21 at 3:14 pm

An update: The SA borrow to invest portfolio started July 2021 has a total return of 9.62% at a borrowed interest rate of 2.64%.

It’s working.

#16 In Flat Ion on 11.16.21 at 3:15 pm

Am I alone in seeing this dog try to look like Garth?

Go ahead, scroll to the top, see the side by side.

#17 Flop… on 11.16.21 at 3:17 pm

Diary Of A Government Worker.

Passed my probation period today, so will probably pass on Garth’s offer.

It’s probably safe to start telling my co-workers all my dark and dirtiest secrets.

Wait to they hear I’m a regular commentator on GreaterFool…

M47BC

#18 Oakville Rocks! on 11.16.21 at 3:18 pm

Lettuce! You’re talking about lettuce?

I thought this blog was meat eaters only!

I thought the only talk about leafy things here were the kinds you can smoke.

Although, the mustard greens, spinach, swiss chard and red leaf lettuce keep on truckin in my back yard.

Speaking of which.. GO LEAFS!

#19 Lepreshaun on 11.16.21 at 3:18 pm

Just a random piece of information.

Called CMHC today, did you know they do not do a income verification of any kind, they just rely on honest mortgage brokers to due due diligence.

I would think insuring $1,250,000 I would like to make sure the person I am putting my neck out for would at least have a job.

Give CMHC a call yourself, I always wondered how I got a mortgage and delivered pizza for a living, now I know !

#20 Yukon Elvis on 11.16.21 at 3:23 pm

I am available if you need a bouncer / bartender. I have my own blackjack. Let me know.

#21 zxcvbnm on 11.16.21 at 3:23 pm

does one need to be vaccinated for this position? =p

#22 tbone on 11.16.21 at 3:24 pm

Congratulations on the expansion of your business .

#23 Leichendiener on 11.16.21 at 3:25 pm

I read this blog every day for a dose of reality. Unfortunately, the reality is not good.

#24 TurnerNation on 11.16.21 at 3:26 pm

– War on the Middle Class. We are being replaced. This is part of the #reset. They fire the good ones and this is what happens. Yep CV can do this too. .

“The Durham District School Board (DDSB) has posted a job advertisement for “Uncertified Emergency Supply Teachers” for the 2021 to 2022 school year, citing a significant staff shortage to teach more than 75,000 students.

https://www.thecountersignal.com/news/ontario-school-board-to-hire-uncertified-emergency-teachers-due-to-labour-shortage


– Guys. The CV Rules will be in place for as long as the Reset is taking place – in the Former First World Countries. Bats and Wet markets. Smiles will be banned for a long time in Kanada.

.The B.C. Government is putting in place legislation that would extend ability to have COVID-19 measures in place through to December 31, 2022. Currently set to expire December 31, 2021. #bcpoli
https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1460363003694510081

.Specter of new restrictions rises in Europe with coronavirus cases spiking once again (washingtonpost.com)

.Germany could make COVID test or vaccine mandatory for public transport (reuters.com)

.Basque region restricts gatherings as cases rise again in parts of Spain (nytimes.com)


— All the old culture must be shut down Comrade.

https://www.rt.com/news/540442-gibraltar-cancels-christmas-covid/
‘Most vaccinated’ place on earth cancels Christmas
Amid a surge in Covid-19 cases, Gibraltar has canceled official Christmas events and “strongly” discouraged people from hosting private gatherings for four weeks. Gibraltar’s entire eligible population is vaccinated.

#25 James on 11.16.21 at 3:34 pm

Oh, and demand for oil is at historic highs while supply has been constrained and the greenies want us all to power our Teslas with solar while nuking the resource sector. Thus, crude is on its way to $100 a barrel.
__________________________________________
Alberta better fire up those oil wells, oh crap where can we sell that oil? Damn its landlocked. Thanks Justin.

#26 Bdwy on 11.16.21 at 3:37 pm

Agreed that oil has plenty of room to run.
99% of the world has yet to see a tesla.
Saw nothing but booming construction from south of PV driving 6 hours norte to mazatalan. Id say 98 percent of the way had new smooth as silk road surface since i did it last. Huge new freeway under construction from guadalajara down to and along the coast. New toll road in from san blas, 140km/hr felt like 80. This country is going places.

We liked san francisco (san pancho to the locals) . Next door to sayulita, tiny little beach town. Big money moving in. American and cdn. Property being snapped up where a house can easily top 1m us.

Electricity is expensive here. Fossil fuels will power near 100% of the massive growth coming in this country( and virtually ALL others) for many decades yet.

#27 Doug t on 11.16.21 at 3:38 pm

what’s that up ahead? Oh look it’s a RECESSION

#28 I'm coming on 11.16.21 at 3:48 pm

I’m boarding the ferry now. Should be there by Christmas for the interview.

#29 Felix on 11.16.21 at 3:48 pm

“I’m open to hearing from anyone who comes here routinely, understands the plan and has qualities to offer (and hopefully a dog). ”

Or, hire more intelligent people with cats, and watch your net returns quadruple.

#30 AM in MN on 11.16.21 at 3:55 pm

Not transitory, and it will take a couple more years to get to the worst of it, when the pain really starts to set in.

Not mentioned was the velocity of money, still low. When that gets going, then you have your “70’s show” all over again.

The CBs have already printed the money, and are still printing more, albeit starting the slow the rate. They can’t control the velocity on money they’ve already printed.

Does $15/hr make a big difference? Try hiring someone for less than that these days!

#31 Billy Buoy on 11.16.21 at 3:56 pm

Inflation has nothing to do with the massive increase in the money supply over the past 2 years, keeping rates near zero (about to drop under within a year).

Nah, must be my imagination.

#32 Graeme on 11.16.21 at 3:57 pm

Yes, definitely structural. Covid/cerb was an accelerant not the cause. Pressure has building for decades and labour want’s its fair share of wealth distro.. or we aren’t showing up. Shove it.

#33 Nonplused on 11.16.21 at 4:04 pm

“How is any of this transitory?”

transitory
trăn′sĭ-tôr″ē, trăn′zĭ-
adjective
Existing or lasting only a short time; short-lived or temporary.
Continuing only for a short time; not enduring; fleeting; evanescent.

transition
trăn-zĭsh′ən, -sĭsh′-
noun
Change from one form, state, style, or place to another.

transitioning
verb
Present participle of transition.

We are “transitioning” from one pricing state to another. The higher prices are here to stay. When TPTB say “inflation is transitory”, they mean they don’t expect inflation to stay in the range of 6%, they expect to manage it back down to 2%. However nowhere do they say that the current inflation will be undone by a period of deflation, returning prices to what they were before the transition.

I would argue that in fact TPTB saw inflation as stubbornly low (below 2%) since 2008 and thus view this as a “catch up”, and thus harmless overall, so long as they can tamp it back down to 2% in a few years. But they appear to be in no hurry (as they view having a number of years of sub-2% inflation as a card in their hand which can now be played by letting inflation run hot for a while).

Thus, I believe I can make a forecast: Inflation will run 6% again in 2022, rates will rise towards the end of 2022 and into 2023, inflation in 2023 will fall towards 4%, and sometime in 2024-2025 inflation will return to around 2%.

But the higher prices will not go back to “normal”. This is the new normal. All the money that was “printed” must be absorbed by rebalancing prices. And TPTB will not withdraw the money for fear of deflation, which is viewed as bad (and probably is worse than inflation).

So get used to your $3.50 lettuce and $15 minimum wage. They are here to stay.

And if you have some extra money lying around, “buy all the things”.

And always remember, “money isn’t real”. It is but a medium of exchange, subject to revision in relation to the real world.

#34 Millennial 1%er on 11.16.21 at 4:09 pm

Hey Garth, thanks for the job offer but I’m going to need 2x my salary in cash + a third of that has to be equity :)

#35 TurnerNation on 11.16.21 at 4:13 pm

— NEXT up, Climate Lockdowns. Yep 2020 we were in training. What do our global rulers have in store for us?

.New Delhi’s air pollution is so bad, officials are calling for a citywide lockdown (npr.org)


— Almost back to normal! Until you realize…they won’t allow it. Former 1st World Countries.

.Pubs curfew and working at home return in Ireland (bbc.co.uk)

— As noted here 15 months ago!

#31 TurnerNation on 07.19.20 at 3:54 pm
Uhhh you guys want to see what’s coming in 2021? Currently we are in only Phase 1 of the global rollout, the Compliance Stage. They will not be letting up on us into wintertime, no


— I noted in Q3 2020 that this is for our DNA, control over breeding?

.Covid-19 testing company faces privacy probe over plan to sell swabs carrying customer DNA
(news.com.au)

— The Charter is suspended. Science in Kanada:
https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid/travel-restrictions/domestic-travel

#36 I'mshort_corpdebt on 11.16.21 at 4:19 pm

Large banks corp profit tax and special fee from the Canada Recovery Dividend – One good step in the right direction.

#37 Slim on 11.16.21 at 4:27 pm

Where can I get a Chrystia Freeland bobblehead for my dash?

#38 Steve french on 11.16.21 at 4:29 pm

Freedom first would make for a good secretary. Or that cottage stay away guy ? How about the “I hate the leafs” poster?

#39 Habitt on 11.16.21 at 4:32 pm

Best wishes on expanding your firm. I will not be able to apply as I sadly don’t have the skill set required. If it helps my wife says I look good dressed up. Congrats Garth.

#40 Joseph R. on 11.16.21 at 4:35 pm

#25 James on 11.16.21 at 3:34 pm
Oh, and demand for oil is at historic highs while supply has been constrained and the greenies want us all to power our Teslas with solar while nuking the resource sector. Thus, crude is on its way to $100 a barrel.
__________________________________________
Alberta better fire up those oil wells, oh crap where can we sell that oil? Damn its landlocked. Thanks Justin.

—————————————————-

2 new pipelines will be soon on service: Enbridge 3 is already operations and TransMountain pipeline expensing (operational in 2023)

Why you want to thank Justin? Justin Trudeau isn’t God (well, maybe for you he is), he didn’t put Alberta as a landlocked province.

#41 I'mshort_corpdebt on 11.16.21 at 4:35 pm

Please, let’s look at the stats.

All these inflationary numbers have been churned out since last April by GS and JPM. If you look a little closer you will see by the end of 2022 and into 2023 these inflationary numbers going down to just a bit above 2%.

What are they expecting? Supply issues will reverse to an over abundance of goods offloaded at our ports that will hit the shelves with heavy, heavy discounts.
Most people having burnt through their stimi checks and again broke to the point of causing a recession.

RE market turning into a catastrophic bust as more boomers wanting to offload their homes to broke millennials? Even though mom and dad have been supporting them since this pandemic has started?

It all points to terrible numbers by the end of next year.

#42 milton friedman on 11.16.21 at 4:38 pm

Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

nothing to do with anything except money printing. and it takes time to feed into the economy. you print trillions world wide, hand it out to people, and you think it will have no effect?

but these things go in cycles. long cycles. start thinking rising rates for the next 10-15 years. we’ve seen the bottom. look for anywhere between 5-8% as a general target.

#43 Dolce Vita on 11.16.21 at 4:45 pm

It’s starting to look a lot like the early 80’s.

Hopefully no recession causing economic shock or it’ll get ugly.

————-

UK amazing at reporting, research, etc. during this pandemic. Equally as good has been UK Doc Campbell’s take since it’s beginning.

Just after the the 9 min mark:

“Disappointments”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nz7wGLPOTxg&t=672s

Endemic. Herd Immunity unlikely?

And that was the good news.

Depressing.

#44 westcdn on 11.16.21 at 4:47 pm

I don’t need my ego to stroked. Nor will I stroke others.
Probably why I finished as an also ran. Hey, all in all I didn’t do badly though I wanted to be champ.

I will rebut even if costs me. I even criticize my bother although we are two peas in the same pod. It make it easier. I don’t get why people have such an inflated opinion of themselves. It annoys me people think they are better drivers and go out of their way to pass me. Trucks are the worst followed by SUVs. Hey, I was in the right lane and doing the speed limit. Women are getting worse.

Well now I find it harder to find “value” in equities. Maybe time for me to head the sidelines for cash and kill debt. Best to leave the pump and dump crowd to fight among themselves. I think this bull has a way to run but I find it better to sell things when times are good.

#45 Zip Recruiter on 11.16.21 at 4:52 pm

Just wondering if the salary is guaranteed to keep up with inflation?

#46 Joe on 11.16.21 at 4:53 pm

I don’t think rates will rise. BNN headline today said BOC rethinking raising rates as job participation rate clouds rate increase schedule. So there you go. Inflate or die. Central banks cannot raise rates. They’re all talk.

#47 Cici on 11.16.21 at 4:59 pm

#17 Flop,

Congratulations Flop!

But please take a hard pass on becoming the office’s enfant terrible and do not piss off your co-workers. Trust me, I have a talent for pissing people off without even trying, so if you CAN shut yourself up, please do! It will be of benefit to both you and everyone else.

Besides, you’re not special insofar as dirty secrets, social-media blabbing and such are concerned. Everyone’s got them/does it, just like everyone farts and burps too. Regardless how special you are, some things are not worth sharing.

Now behave, or at least pretend that you don’t have a personality. Nobody needs to know! As far as work is concerned, the more robotic you are the better. Sigh, if only I could practice what I preach, LOL!

#48 Guy in Calgary on 11.16.21 at 5:18 pm

Open a Calgary office ;)

#49 wallflower on 11.16.21 at 5:19 pm

This is why I read the comments.

#28 I’m coming on 11.16.21 at 3:48 pm
I’m boarding the ferry now. Should be there by Christmas for the interview.

#50 Cici on 11.16.21 at 5:22 pm

Garth, did you see that former BOC Governor Poloz is backing a new Reddit-style fractional ownership gig in Canada?

Am I melodramatic or does this reek a stench of conflict-of-interest? John Pasalis today tweeted that it’s at least “problematic” and also had this to say and more on Twitter:

“Is this really the ownership structure for a home purchased with Key?

Buyer invests 2.5% Rightwards arrow Owns 2.5% of the home

Key invests 47.5% Rightwards arrow Owns 97.5% of the home

I could be wrong, but that’s what it looks like….”

More on the story here:

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stephen-poloz-backed-company-aims-140000993.html

#51 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.16.21 at 5:26 pm

THE TITANIC- APRIL 14-15 , YEAR OF THE LORD, 1912
The good Captain Smith was on a record run from Southampton England to New York city. Full speed ahead mates, nothing but calm seas and clear sky. All was well on the good ship when the unimaginable occurred, a slight glancing blow from a passing iceberg that no one saw coming. The water rushed in, and the rest is history. As to the “LITTLE PEOPLE” down below in third class, Captain Smith was heard to say,” don’t unlock the gates or they’ll swamp the lifeboats, and drowning people as we all know might pull you down with them.” The analogy to this sad tale, when this market hits the fast approaching financial iceberg , the LITTLE PEOPLE, will find the gates will be locked, tight, with no escape. As for the insiders, con artists and their ilk, they will be rowing away in their own private life boats with all their wealth intact. The screams and prayers from the” LITTLE PEOPLE” will be drowned out as the band plays their favorite tune, “BE HIP, BUY THE DIP. BUY THE DIP.”. GLUG, GLUG, GL–G.. And the good ship Titanic, the ship, that not even God could sink, sank to the bottom of the sea. Amen Brother.

#52 UCC on 11.16.21 at 5:41 pm

#37 Slim on 11.16.21 at 4:27 pm
Where can I get a Chrystia Freeland bobblehead for my dash?

Why? You can always watch her bobbing her head at 6 and 11 and if you haven’t seen enough just look up some youtube videos with her standing behind Mr Socks. The bobbing is hypnotizing….

#53 Barb on 11.16.21 at 5:45 pm

And here in B.C., with highways to the Interior closed due to washouts and floods, we won’t be able to buy lettuce at any price.

Unless it comes from Alberta.
British Columbians should’ve been nicer to Albertans!

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 5:45 pm

#17 Flop… on 11.16.21 at 3:17 pm
Diary Of A Government Worker.

Passed my probation period today, so will probably pass on Garth’s offer.

It’s probably safe to start telling my co-workers all my dark and dirtiest secrets.

Wait to they hear I’m a regular commentator on GreaterFool…

M47BC
————–
Congrats.
Unfortunately, your best buddy CEF won’t go for beers with you anymore.
He’s jealous.
You a lazy civil servant now with a gold plated pension, and lunch and 2 breaks, and endless sickdays, and you can bring your dog to work, and if you don’t like something, you can complain to the shop Stuart.
You’ve arrived.
Just make sure your rubber-stamp is alwas sharp and ready.
Good luck.

#55 Armpit on 11.16.21 at 5:52 pm

Rates won’t rise until Inflation becomes unmanageable. This makes Today’s debt 5% less in one year!!
—————————

Regarding job offer????

Retired this year after 45yrs and loving the country living.

Every day is a weekend and at the end of the month, the bank account gets replenished with pension deposits.

——————

Now….If only the Blog Dogs can leave comments in less than 10 lines. It would make everyone’s life here easier.

#56 Kool Aid on 11.16.21 at 5:55 pm

“Inflation’s running hotter than Megan Thee Stallion”

I find this comically relevant, like the swells of inflation ahead.

#57 I'mshort_corpdebt on 11.16.21 at 6:15 pm

@Joe #46 – Spot On

Quantitative Ease, The Toxic Sludge Bankers, and RE (sic), Love.

“QE is when a central bank floods the market with cheap money, so people go on a spending spree. Buy a car, buy a house, buy whatever — but just buy something. Once demand is elevated, inflation picks up. Central banks are terrified of deflation, so your elevated cost of living in a recession is a great success.” – Better Dwelling

Again the BoC will do everything to hurt the younger generation. And now the banksters like Stephen Poloz are setting up their own SPACs to drain further the savings of future buyers for a fee! After they’ve caused this massive imbalance. Sheesh, what more corrupt can they get?

#58 Re-Cowtown on 11.16.21 at 6:32 pm

There should be math stress test for all cabinet ministers. If they can’t do grade 9 math they should not be allowed to govern. PM included.

If any of them could do grade nine or better math, that would put a spike in the Climate Emergency BS.

#59 OK, Doomer? on 11.16.21 at 6:34 pm

“Megan Thee Stallion” was she the one who watered the flowers on stage in Florida a few night ago?

#60 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 6:42 pm

#55 Armpit on 11.16.21 at 5:52 pm
Every day is a weekend and at the end of the month, the bank account gets replenished with pension deposits.
______________________

Divide the monthly net by 30.5.

The daily net is more soothing.

#61 Spanky on 11.16.21 at 6:46 pm

#46 Joe on 11.16.21 at 4:53 pm
I don’t think rates will rise. BNN headline today said BOC rethinking raising rates as job participation rate clouds rate increase schedule. So there you go. Inflate or die. Central banks cannot raise rates. They’re all talk.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The bond market decides rates. If the bond market thinks you’re carrying too much debt, the rate goes up.

Just ask Greece.

Just because people don’t want to work doesn’t mean that the bond market will keep rates low.

Again, just ask Greece how dis-incentivizing workforce participation worked out for them. Not good.

The bond market is the “Honey Badger”. It just don’t give a $%^.

#62 Grandv!ew on 11.16.21 at 6:56 pm

“Rent-to-Own dressed up as Digital Goodness”

https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1460637398472306695

“Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have had six years since he became prime minister in 2015, with lots of talk but negligible impact on prices or supply”

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kelly-mcparland-the-housing-bubble-could-burst-at-any-time-and-the-liberals-keep-playing-roulette

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 7:04 pm

#53 Barb on 11.16.21 at 5:45 pm
And here in B.C., with highways to the Interior closed due to washouts and floods, we won’t be able to buy lettuce at any price.

Unless it comes from Alberta.
British Columbians should’ve been nicer to Albertans!
—————–
No such luck.
Lots of veggies in BC are now coming from (gasp) China.
Get used to eating bokchoi, gai-lan and the big cone shaped carrots who look like they are on steroids.
For years, I just saw them in Chinese grocery stores, but now they are going mainstream in Safeway, Superstore and Save on Foods.
China is taking over, one giant carrot at a time.

#64 WTF on 11.16.21 at 7:19 pm

#17 Flop

Dude, off probation, full time GOC. excellent! bulletproof. Now time to learn the CUPE tude…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjKB0rc3V_g

#65 Cowtown Cowboy on 11.16.21 at 7:21 pm

Man, the people forecasting the weather in BC are going to have some explaining to do…Brutal..and condolences to those who have lost their lives.

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 7:46 pm

Getting ready to watch the Canada vs. Mechiko soccer qualifying match for the Worldcup in 22.
Mexico is the favorite.
But with Edmonton’s favorite player, Alphonsy Davis, an upset could happen.
Expecting a sell out at Commonwealth Stadium, with Canadian flags galore.
I wonder who Don G. is rooting for.
Or Dolce.
The mighty Azzurri are struggling, having to go to playoffs to make it to Qatar.
Go Canada, Go.

#67 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 11.16.21 at 8:00 pm

Garth, what will the employee benefits be for this new position in Toronthole?

Here are some suggestions to help you attract someone to join your team:

-free anti-depressants and psychiatric care after every loss by the Make Believes, plus 100 paid mental health days annually

-free driving lessons so they can learn to speed through school zones like a true GTAHole

-$2,000,000 in life insurance so their family can afford a mold-filled slanty semi after they are murdered

-free bullet-proof sweaters for their kids and dogs

-free coaching in narcissism development skills

-discounts for taxi rides until the Eglinton Crosstown and Metrolinx projects are completed in 2067

-free vision care including dark Warby Parker sunglasses so they don’t have to look at just how ugly the architecture is there

-free trips and tickets to Buffalo every quarter to see what a decent city with professional sports teams really feels like

With benefits like these, you’ll be sure to get a qualified delusional loser to join you in the Torontoilet!

#68 Outrage on 11.16.21 at 8:07 pm

Inflation is really over 7 % and no the phony Canadian numbers. Higher taxes and living costs all thanks to our government and central bank. Its a sh!t show and nobody cares.
Canadians are willing to sacrifice for a lower standard of living for climate change carbon taxes. Who wins ,really the government and the people lose. Canadians who with a fixed retirement will have to move to a 3rd world country to keep a modest living .Thank you T 2.

#69 Do we have all the facts on 11.16.21 at 8:25 pm

The intrinsic value of a dwelling unit is based on a number of tangible factors including the current cost of replacement, the availability of financing, the demand for comparable units, the supply of comparable units, location of the unit and the condition of the unit.

In 2021 the extrinsic value of a dwelling unit is based on nothing more than investor confidence that the current market value will continue to increase over time. Past performance equates to future performance.

The intrinsic value of stock in a specific company is based on a number of tangible factors including, current earnings, projection of future earnings, net profit, past and current dividends, current assets and liabilities, trends in the market, competition etc.

In 2021 the extrinsic value of stock in a specific company, or in a collection of stocks, appears to be based on nothing more than confidence that the current market value will continue to increase over time. Past performance equates to future performance.

When the gap between the intrinsic value of any asset and the extrinsic value begins to raise eyebrows investor confidence becomes extremely vulnerable to changing
circumstances.

What I find surprising is that in 2021 most professionals associated with investment based assets have become focussed on projecting the past gains in extrinsic values into the future at a time when the potential for change is palpable.

The fear of inflation, the predictions of increases in interest rates, significant shifts in the global economy, rising levels of government debt, the impact of massive increases in M2 money supply, the impact of technology on future employment, corporate buy backs, the lingering impact of viral infections, the shift to working from home, declining productivity, the shift in reserve currencies, the increased use of virtual currencies, etc etc all have the potential to influence investor confidence in the foreseeable future.

The current environment for investment can hardly be described as stable and yet there is minimal discussion about the current intrinsic value of dwelling units or of corporate equities.

Potential purchasers of a dwelling unit or an ETF have no idea of the intrinsic value of their purchase and they don’t really care. They are basing their purchase on confidence that past rates of return on investment will be repeated in the future.

I am not certain that this level of confidence is warranted
at a time when significant changes are looming on the horizon.

#70 Quintilian on 11.16.21 at 8:27 pm

“Location is downtown Toronto. In an office. No sweats or yoga pants.”

I think it would be fascinating to work with somebody with your caliber of ethics.

(I mean that- in spite of some of the posts I skewer you with.)

Three deal breakers for me:
Toronto, office, and the pants thing.

#71 Faron on 11.16.21 at 8:29 pm

#40 Joseph R. on 11.16.21 at 4:35 pm
#25 James on 11.16.21 at 3:34 pm

Just look at the price differential between WCS and WTI to suss out impacts of pipelines or not pipelines. Not identical products, but roughly so in terms of utility I imagine. Currently WSC is 25% cheaper ’cause transport + being a heavy product I reckon.

Will be interesting to see what the dinged up infrastructure from the flood does to the price differential. Currently no rail out of or in to the LML via Canada. I think BNSF is operating.

#72 Joe on 11.16.21 at 8:40 pm

#61 Spanky. Nope the bond market doesn’t decide rates. Central banks do. They’ve been purchasing reverse repos to keep them low. They’ll keep doing so.

#73 Garth's Son Drake on 11.16.21 at 8:42 pm

If you were to hire me they would be screaming nepotism.

Why don’t you allow for remote work? Toronto is too far of a commute.

Anyways, the quote of the from your friend John Pasalis:

“When investors drive housing demand no amount of supply will ever be enough.”

Greg Bonnell said Ontario has negative net migration, meaning an outflow – people are fleeing the province for more affordable living.

So who is buying? According to John Pasalis it is all investors speculating and looking to catch a quick upside tapping any means possible, including home equity to double down on real estate.

This thing is going to implode spectacularly if rates start climbing. The exit will bottleneck while you hear a stampede of people rush it. Soon the RE market in Canada will whipsaw up and down like bitcoin charts because people are gaming it the same way…100x leverage for quick gains.

#74 mike from mtl on 11.16.21 at 8:43 pm

#67 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 11.16.21 at 8:00 pm
Garth, what will the employee benefits be for this new position in Toronthole?
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Ayoye , describing squarehead central!

#75 the Jaguar on 11.16.21 at 8:50 pm

The plot thickens. (pardon the cliche’, but Ponzi has encouraged me to pursue a career as a Hollywood script writer. I’m actually working on the outline of a more compelling story. Characters are intact, but the story outline presents an extreme challenge given history is often stranger than fiction…).

Anyhoo….

So not only do we have a supply chain issue internationally, but now the provincial exchange ( Alberta/BC) is blown out of the water. ( pardon the obvious reference). All that annoying rain. Those annoying phone calls about ‘Tulips in February’ stand in stark contrast.

Am I panicked that BC wines might be on hold ? (No, given I prefer Spain, Portugal and Italy.)

OMG! What about those Purdy’s Marshmallow Treats that ‘explode’ out of their chocolate shells as they pass over the Continental divide? (Pretty sure I can find a substitute.)

Will I miss all those license plates from BC at IKEA, liquor stores, and various other retail outlets in Alberta in their attempts to avoid some hideous thing known as PST?. (Of course not. I would report them if it were possible.).

Fishman, please have Billy Bob fly in some BC salmon if the mood strikes me. And give us a ringle dingle on the telefono when you want the pipeline turned back on.

It will all be so very interesting. On so many levels. Yes, we know the sun is out again, but the infrastructure damage yet to be assessed. Just exactly will it be seen how reliant are these two provinces, (so often seen as at extreme ends of the political spectrum ). are one another. Stay tuned.

Garth, I’d probably ‘ace’ that job for “awesome admin assistant “, and I’d show up in a Tuxedo everyday just for you. Respect and admiration. Even listen to Doug Rowat’s Monday morning quarterback analysis of whatever sports event occurred on the weekend. ( even though I know more about baseball than he does….).

Talk to me about Luis Tiant/World Series, Doug.

I lived in Toronto for seven years. Vancouver for two. Alberta is a very hard place to leave. It’s hard to explain this understanding of ‘place” to others.

Won’t you try, WUL?

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 8:51 pm

#71 Faron on 11.16.21 at 8:29 pm
#40 Joseph R. on 11.16.21 at 4:35 pm
#25 James on 11.16.21 at 3:34 pm

Just look at the price differential between WCS and WTI to suss out impacts of pipelines or not pipelines. Not identical products, but roughly so in terms of utility I imagine. Currently WSC is 25% cheaper ’cause transport + being a heavy product I reckon.

Will be interesting to see what the dinged up infrastructure from the flood does to the price differential. Currently no rail out of or in to the LML via Canada. I think BNSF is operating.
—————–
The message is clear.
All the clear cutting is coming home to roost.
No trees left to soak up the rain.
The big mud slide in Hope was the result of clear cutting.
Don’t mess with nature, people.

#77 Oakville Rocks! on 11.16.21 at 9:06 pm

Here we go…. Canada v. Mexico right now!

-10 C in Edmonton – wow.

Let’s Go Canada!

#78 yvr_lurker on 11.16.21 at 9:38 pm

#75
I lived in Toronto for seven years. Vancouver for two. Alberta is a very hard place to leave. It’s hard to explain this understanding of ‘place” to others.

Won’t you try, WUL?
——-
Let me try. The people (you included) are largely pretty insufferable, although I do like my brother in law in Okotoks who works in the gas industry. It is about the nature and doing multi-day hikes in the Kananaskis with the family or with a few BC friends that is the draw… see very few people, no damned tour buses, and no right-wing zealots to argue with…. complete bliss….

#79 BillyBob on 11.16.21 at 9:41 pm

#75 the Jaguar on 11.16.21 at 8:50 pm
The plot thickens. (pardon the cliche’, but Ponzi has encouraged me to pursue a career as a Hollywood script writer. I’m actually working on the outline of a more compelling story. Characters are intact, but the story outline presents an extreme challenge given history is often stranger than fiction…).

Anyhoo….

So not only do we have a supply chain issue internationally, but now the provincial exchange ( Alberta/BC) is blown out of the water. ( pardon the obvious reference). All that annoying rain. Those annoying phone calls about ‘Tulips in February’ stand in stark contrast.

Am I panicked that BC wines might be on hold ? (No, given I prefer Spain, Portugal and Italy.)

OMG! What about those Purdy’s Marshmallow Treats that ‘explode’ out of their chocolate shells as they pass over the Continental divide? (Pretty sure I can find a substitute.)

Will I miss all those license plates from BC at IKEA, liquor stores, and various other retail outlets in Alberta in their attempts to avoid some hideous thing known as PST?. (Of course not. I would report them if it were possible.).

Fishman, please have Billy Bob fly in some BC salmon if the mood strikes me. And give us a ringle dingle on the telefono when you want the pipeline turned back on.

==============================================

The reason British Columbians are having so much terrible weather misery wreaked upon them has nothing to do with climate change or weather patterns or whatnot. It’s really quite simple.

They deserve it.

#80 rk n usa on 11.16.21 at 9:48 pm

Bank of Canada

a hawk one day

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-getting-closer-to-raising-rates-macklem-says-1.1682072

a dove the next

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-sees-labour-market-uncertainty-clouding-rate-path-1.1682738

they are waiting for US to raise rates so as to not raise Loonie

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.21 at 9:49 pm

Job resume.

No yoga pants.

Will my shaved head, Kilt and dirk, be an issue?

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.21 at 9:51 pm

@#70 A quintilliqn reason never to work
“Three deal breakers for me:
Toronto, office, and the pants thing.”

++++
I’m sure, Turner Investments will find some way to survive…

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.21 at 9:58 pm

@#54 Ponzies Public Payroll Pal
“Unfortunately, your best buddy CEF won’t go for beers with you anymore.”

++++

Well done Floppy!
Beers on you buddy.
Now that you’re Bullitt proof you can tell your friends back in Oz your job is like Superman.
Can’t be killed.

#84 DON on 11.16.21 at 10:23 pm

#72 Joe on 11.16.21 at 8:40 pm
#61 Spanky. Nope the bond market doesn’t decide rates. Central banks do. They’ve been purchasing reverse repos to keep them low. They’ll keep doing so.
************

If they keep on doing so, they risk making things worse.

#85 Cam Neely on 11.16.21 at 10:27 pm

Lettuce isn’t sitting in a stranded container from China. $3.50 a pop is tax on delivery , aka Trudeau carbon tax on energy to allow trucks and trains to cross the border. Every Canadian will just have to ‘live with less’ this winter.

And though Trudeau hasn’t made a statement in the effects of flooding in BC having closed roads , rails and airports, you ain’t seen nothing yet. But, fortunately for Quebec, Trudeau allows free and unfettered access to Saudi Arabian tankers.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-glavin-the-scale-of-the-disaster-unfolding-in-b-c-is-unprecedented

Welcome to the unmitigated disaster of an impending meltdown. A prudent government would have kept the cupboards stocked “ just in case”, but Trudeaus frat house decided to blow the roof off. Now an unexpected disaster has hit and there’s no cushion. That kind of zero planning is how children think. We’re screwed. The kids in the hall are running the country.

Waiting for Trudeaus calming solutions to broadcast as soon as their written wherever Gerry Butts is vacationing. It should be an interesting show.

#86 T- Man on 11.16.21 at 10:38 pm

I mentioned you on the National Post website comment board and got shadow banned. Winning!

#87 Do we have all the facts on 11.16.21 at 11:19 pm

# 72 Joe

To be accurate even an indication that the Bank of Canada intends to increase interest rates in the future will influence the rate of return offered on Government of Canada bonds.

Financial institutions view Government of Canada bonds guaranteed investments and mortgages as risk based investments. As a result interest rates on 5 year fixed term mortgages are generally set 1.0% to 2.0% higher than the current rate offered by 5 year Government of Canada bonds. This spread reflects higher risk.

Based on traditional spreads the recent increase in 5 year Government of Canada bonds to 1.56% could result in an increase in the interest rate on 5 year fixed mortgages to more than 3.0% in the very near future, especially if changing circumstances are perceived to increase risk.

#88 Don Guillermo on 11.16.21 at 11:58 pm

#79 BillyBob on 11.16.21 at 9:41 pm
#75 the Jaguar on 11.16.21 at 8:50 pm

The reason British Columbians are having so much terrible weather misery wreaked upon them has nothing to do with climate change or weather patterns or whatnot. It’s really quite simple.

They deserve it
***************************
eMay might say it has something to do with the coal BC pumps out to Asia but she won’t. The NDP/Greens observing the hypocrite oath.

“Operating in the very heartland of Canada’s green movement, what is occurring at this B.C. coast port is criminal by any environmental standard. And what is startling about this secret, getting dirtier year-over-year, is that it is being supported by both the federal Liberal and provincial NDP Governments. Given the vilification of the prairies’ oil and gas industry by these same self-proclaimed environmental stewards, the silence surrounding the Port of Vancouver’s coal exports shouts out Canadians’ very own definition of hypocrisy.”

https://niagaraindependent.ca/the-dirty-secret-of-coal-exports-from-the-port-of-vancouver/

#89 Faron on 11.17.21 at 12:08 am

#79 BillyBob on 11.16.21 at 9:41 pm

They deserve it.

Frankly, surprised Garth let that one through. He typically frowns on mocking others’ death and/or misfortune from what I’ve gathered. You know, as a respectable person would. Oh wait, you don’t know.

The woman who died in her vehicle in a mudslide “deserved it”? An entire province can be simmered down by simpletons like yourself to “deserving it”? Presumably Alberta also “deserves” not to import produce while also “deserving” not to export anything by rail for shipment? And the town of Princeton, home of hard working blue collar types “deserved” catastrophic flooding?

You are, truly, a piece of crap. The Jaguar, you are close behind for so quickly and flippantly switching to a meh stance even as the conditions continue to degrade in Sumas and body searches continue where vehicles were swept off the road.

#90 Faron on 11.17.21 at 12:13 am

Been seeing a lot of job openings posted in unlikely places. Such as Garth’s today. I hope the hirees know this and negotiate their salary appropriately.

#91 DON on 11.17.21 at 2:08 am

#79 BillyBob on 11.16.21 at 9:41 pm

The reason British Columbians are having so much terrible weather misery wreaked upon them has nothing to do with climate change or weather patterns or whatnot. It’s really quite simple.

They deserve it

***********
WTF?

When you opened your mouth, you left no mystery and confirmed my thought.

#92 calgaryPhantom on 11.17.21 at 5:08 am

If you are hiring admin assistant to help moderate the comment section of this blog, then there needs to be proper health and safety disclosures in the job posting.

#93 Spanky on 11.17.21 at 7:30 am

#72 Joe on 11.16.21 at 8:40 pm
#61 Spanky. Nope the bond market doesn’t decide rates. Central banks do. They’ve been purchasing reverse repos to keep them low. They’ll keep doing so.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You actually just made my point. The bond market decides the rates and the Central Banks have to interfere by purchasing bonds to keep the interest rates artificially low.

The CB’s have already stopped their purchase interference and rates are starting to rise.

As I stated, the bond market sets the interest rates. The CB’s can dick around and interfere, but once they quit doing that (as they now have) the market forces take over.

And oh..oh, up she rises
Er..ly in the morning!

#94 BC is Drowning! on 11.17.21 at 8:03 am

This virus and these floods are all part of a plot created by socialists and Faron.

Bring back Bill Vander Zalm!

Let sanity reign!

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/opinion/bill-vander-zalm-talks-about-covid19-4538057

#95 Tony on 11.17.21 at 8:10 am

Re: #33 Nonplused on 11.16.21 at 4:04 pm

Mathematically America is headed for hyperinflation in the future.

Of course not. – Garth

#96 OK, Doomer on 11.17.21 at 8:12 am

Watching the Kyle Rittenhouse saga with great interest. Apparently two jurors are refusing to find him not guilty as they’re scared that the mob will come after them.

Oddly, a mistrial may be the best outcome, as it kicks the can back to the prosecution to clean up the debacle that they created.

Just to be clear, I’m not commenting on guilt or innocence, just commenting on the complete mess the prosecutor made of the entire situation.

Better still, don’t comment at all. This is not an assault rifle blog. – Garth

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 8:13 am

@#89 Faron’s Faux Fury

Barely a day goes by why Faron’s faux editorial outrage blisters across the screen for the perceived endless, insensitive, politically incorrect comments that should be banned, burned and banished.
Poor thing.
You must sometimes grow tired of carrying the torch.
Keep drinking sugary energy drinks.
One momentarily wonders what your version of Cancel culture would turn this blog into….then I wake up screaming..

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 8:20 am

Now we have the bureaucrats in BC govt running around a thither and yon.

The mudslides blocking Hope…. may take WEEKS to clear.
There are people sleeping in their cars and standing around campfires under overpasses.

“the worst rain in 200 years” is already beginning to grate and the media knives are being sharpened.

Lets watch the blame session begin in earnest as the bureaucrats have to switch from endless emails, meetings, talk mode to……. actually getting sh!t done.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 8:25 am

Merritt
Long haul Truckers stuck in Merritt are complaining its been 2 days and no one….no one has come to talk to them.
No toilets, no food, no help.
“Where are we supposed to go to the bathroom? The parking lot?”

“I’m the ( He, She, They ) from the govt and I’m here to help.”
Here’s a Pink T-shirt to keep you warm.

#100 Nuts on 11.17.21 at 8:41 am

#92 calgaryPhantom

If you are hiring admin assistant to help moderate the comment section of this blog, then there needs to be proper health and safety disclosures in the job posting.

More like psychological profile. Takes someone special to deal with the bag of nuts that is the comment section.

#101 Armpit on 11.17.21 at 9:06 am

BREAKING NEWS!!!!

CPI reports 4.7% year over year inflation.

This man made supply chain interuption (aka – mob extortion) will be replaced with world wide labour interruptions (aka – mob related strikes).

This will be a mess in the making….

#102 Dharma Bum on 11.17.21 at 9:24 am

RE: JOB OPENING
_______________

Dear Sir,

I hereby submit my application for the position of administrative assistant at Turner Investments.

I am uniquely qualified for this office position as I possess the relevant attributes and traits of an office worker:

Late every day
Lazy
Gossip incessantly with co workers
Jealous of others
Cynical
Take multiple coffee and smoke breaks
Spend half a day on personal phone calls
Spend the other half on Facebook, Twitter, and Tik Tok
Roll my eyes constantly
Fill my desk with mini photos of family, friends, pets, etc.
Take 2 hour lunches
Let the phone ring off the hook hoping someone else will pick up
Wear inappropriate clothing
Call in sick at least once a week
Flirt with staff
Have endless excuses
Blame others for my mistakes

I eagerly await your response.

Please note, I need a one month vacation a week after I start, and my minimum acceptable salary for a downtown Toronto job is $250,000.00.

I assume the benefit package includes full dental coverage.

I need braces.

#103 BillyBob on 11.17.21 at 9:25 am

#89 Faron on 11.17.21 at 12:08 am
#79 BillyBob on 11.16.21 at 9:41 pm

They deserve it.

Frankly, surprised Garth let that one through. He typically frowns on mocking others’ death and/or misfortune from what I’ve gathered. You know, as a respectable person would. Oh wait, you don’t know.

=======================================

My goodness, you managed to write quite an essay based on interpreting my three words. This must be how mystics feel when supplicants vainly attempt to divine their meanings.

Bit of a difference between “death” and “misfortune”. Nowhere did I wish the former on anyone. The fact that it is the inevitable outcome for all of us, you’ll have to take up with someone a few pay grades higher than myself.

But misfortune is a different animal. It presents positive opportunities. A chance to develop resilience and to adapt and learn. That’s why I approach it with cheerful humour – that’s a choice. Seem to recall you making light of my own temporary hardship – do you remember me whining to Garth about that?

So stop being so negative. This is just nature putting the hydro in your hydroelectric. Think of all the Teslas you’ll be able to charge.

Instead of lashing out, perhaps a bit of gratitude for cargo pilots bringing you vital supplies with the roads, rails, and ports shut down is more appropriate?

The biggest boon to your mental health might be to Google “tongue in cheek”, silly lad.

#104 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.17.21 at 9:29 am

#89 F(a)ron on 11.17.21 at 12:08 am

Wow.. you are boring and predictable… And oblivious.. you wish death and destruction on everyone that disagrees with your world view.. which is just about everyone on here..

#105 Gavin Hart on 11.17.21 at 9:37 am

DELETED

#106 OK, Doomer on 11.17.21 at 9:46 am

Better still, don’t comment at all. This is not an assault rifle blog. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I said nothing at all related to your comment. Not sure where you got that from.

The trial and the issue are of no consequence or import here. Desist. – Garth

#107 the Jaguar on 11.17.21 at 9:50 am

‘Meh stance’? I would never use the expression ‘Meh’.

Comments regarding trade between two provinces that don’t agree on very much and you immediately take my comments out of context. My remarks are about the trade that occurs between the two provinces. And if you think BC isn’t guilty of a certain level of hypocrisy ask yourself why Garth so often makes fun of the province on this blog. It isn’t coincidence.

Of course any time lives are lost it is a tragedy, just as it was during the Calgary Flood of 2013.

Stop lecturing everyone who comments on this blog, Faron. Accept that your opinions are not universally shared, especially the social justice warrior condescending ones. Numerous people on this blog have pointed this out. As for ‘Frankly, surprised Garth let that one through.”, what’s really surprising is that he hasn’t banned you permanently given the constant barrage of insults you hand out daily. Your initials stand for something more than your given name.

#108 the Jaguar on 11.17.21 at 9:55 am

@#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 8:25 am

Oh look! Someone from BC (lower mainland) displaying a sense of humour regarding the recent rain even. Take care CEF…it might be interpreted as ‘callous disregard’ by those who consider themselves a higher moral authority. The ones from Portland where people like to set the local police station on fire with people trapped within.

#109 Observer on 11.17.21 at 10:13 am

#103 BillyBoob

“My goodness, you managed to write quite an essay based on interpreting my three words. ”

And you managed to write an even longer essay based on defending your original essay which made your three words quite clear. You sound like a jerk, btw.

#110 Sail Away on 11.17.21 at 10:41 am

#96 OK, Doomer on 11.17.21 at 8:12 am

Apparently two jurors are refusing to find him not guilty as they’re scared that the mob will come after them.

———

Fairy tales. Nobody could have such information from a sequestered jury.

#111 Miss MO Boomer on 11.17.21 at 10:54 am

BC NDP blasted for it’s unpreparedness .

https://lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fnationalpost.com%2Fopinion%2Fterry-glavin-the-scale-of-the-disaster-unfolding-in-b-c-is-unprecedented&h=AT21BldIokHlCHPX3mMbckIY4iMe0OMfW-TQPtjqdTJlG_5DHN4IKjtZt8jqY-Ctb186ECqX5XZT5MSmmSOOGPZug_UbwbSTUb_a3VF7M-DKwOqUV5Oef97YqiUIeylItWi-QH5864e3eBIr3m4d

The failures of governments on every level in Canada is unforgivable. Where are the back up systems, the maintenance regime. One highway, one rail track, one has pipe. This attitude that tax dollars are not to be spent in Canada and that redundant back up systems should have been in place is bordering on insane. The inmates have taken over and the asylum is Canada.

#112 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.17.21 at 11:01 am

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 8:25 am
Merritt
Long haul Truckers stuck in Merritt are complaining its been 2 days and no one….no one has come to talk to them.
No toilets, no food, no help.
“Where are we supposed to go to the bathroom? The parking lot?”
——————————————
Well, you’re the expert.
Send your guys up and install toilets.
It’s an emergency, so you can charge triple.
Amazon’s delivery drivers are not allowed (allegedly) washroom breaks.
How come you don’t complain about that.
You ever heard of Act of God?
So blame God.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 11:20 am

@#108 the jaguar

yeah.
I can’t wait for the bureaucratic blame session to crank up.
Finger pointing, politically correct pabulum, endless talk all around the issue of…
Bulldozers pushing muck, rocks and logs off the highway so trucks and cars can drive.

Hell.
Hire a fleet of logging trucks to haul freight.
They drive in these conditions daily in the back 40.

#114 Habitt on 11.17.21 at 11:47 am

102 Dharma Bum Your post was priceless. Still giggling. Thanks eh

#115 SP on 11.17.21 at 12:06 pm

*We are in need of an awesome admin assistant and also an associate advisor licensed in the securities trade.*

ah OK, I started to worry that you need a dish washer…

#116 Faron on 11.17.21 at 12:23 pm

#103 BillyBob on 11.17.21 at 9:25 am

OMG, wow. Too late bud. No surprise from you, but still impressive. DON and Observer see it as clearly as I do.

#107 and #108 the Jaguar on 11.17.21 at 9:55 am

Cry me a river. Your comment was tripe and BillyBob’s comment was tripe that had been left in a hot room under a moist rag for 10 days following on the heels of numerous dobbits of half-digested soylent that have dribbled from his mouth onto his keyboard.

W/re CEF: pointing out a light-hearted angle is a far cry from saying a tragedy in which people died is something they “deserved”. The focus is on BillyBob and you, don’t try to deflect it.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 8:13 am

You do realize you do the exact same thing, right? I mean, less eloquently, but you know what I mean.

#104 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.17.21 at 9:29 am

Who are you again?

#117 Time OUT 4 U on 11.17.21 at 12:24 pm

#104 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.17.21 at 9:29 am
#89 F(a)ron on 11.17.21 at 12:08 am
———————————————-
And certainly he’s not going to get the job.

#118 WTF on 11.17.21 at 1:00 pm

#75 Meow
“Alberta is a very hard place to leave. It’s hard to explain this understanding of ‘place” to others.”
—————————————————————
To each their own. Good for you to find a place you are happy to call home, I have lived or worked in several provinces (5) Including Alberta.

Just an observation. Perhaps the difficulty you have in explaining your pride of place “to others” is the off putting hubris prevalent in Alberta. Don’t get that anywhere else, aside from Quebec. Tribal self delusion.

Living on top of a finite resource with worldwide demand for the past 70 years isn’t really something Albertans actually “created”. Nor is it indicative of character, work ethic, or intelligence yet the meme repeated constantly in AB suggests exceptionalism.

Alberta has many great folks for sure, some beautiful country, lots of accomplishments. Just. like. the. R.O.C.,

Oblivious chest thumping libertarian lunatics er “truck nuts” hopefully are the minority in wild rose country?

And No, it wasn’t “hard to leave”

#119 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.17.21 at 2:02 pm

#116 F(a)ron on 11.17.21 at 12:23 pm

Yawn… And skip.

#120 pPrasseur on 11.17.21 at 2:14 pm

How is any of this transitory?

The only thing transitory are good times bought with monetary policy and excessive debt.

Reality is coming and coming rather fast!

#121 KLNR on 11.17.21 at 2:35 pm

@#119 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.17.21 at 2:02 pm
#116 F(a)ron on 11.17.21 at 12:23 pm

Yawn… And skip.

you children are still at it eh.

yawn in deed.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.21 at 2:38 pm

@#116 Faron

“You do realize you do the exact same thing, right? I mean, less eloquently, but you know what I mean.”

+++

How does one “wake up screaming” eloquently?

#123 Diamond Dog on 11.17.21 at 2:42 pm

Darn, wish I had more time to comment on inflation. As you well know Garth, my garrulous loquacity knows no bounds!

All that being said, I see price fixing in commodities (nat gas, fertilizer as examples) coupled with a period of under exploration extended through the pandemic that is coming back to bite. I see price fixing by monopolies in general as corps strive for profits.

I suspect North American nominal currencies losing PPP and real GDP is low growth at best, but the real time numbers aren’t in yet to verify:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

I see a labor shortage in the U.S. that is structural, adding to inflation. I’ve touched on why recently heavily suggesting that the #1 reason for the decline is a decline in overall physical health and there are other factors (wealth effects are #2), but essentially the bottom line is labor force participation continues to shrink in the U.S. now currently at 61.9% (Goldman Sachs est). This drop in labor force participation is thee #1 reason for mandatory vaccines in my opinion.

It’s not popular to do so by any means, but when we look at the economic implications to not doing so, mandatory vaccines in some sectors are at present necessary. The bright side is that this policy can change in time (2 major developments with pharma this fall i.e. Merch and Pfizer drug antivirals, this is a game changer, likely and end to mandates in time) :

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/11/12/us-posts-near-record-104-million-job-openings-but-heres-why-more-americans-arent-looking-for-work/?sh=35f1e3c444b7

I see corps continuing to price products higher for less salable product and using every trick in the book to charge more for less. I see supply side disruptions coming out of China. All of these factors and more are adding to supply side disruptions leading to inflation but the other side of the coin is monetary policy and that’s a long winded issue that warrants time I haven’t got unfortunately, at least today.

Perhaps that’s a good thing as it’s a dry read for most but a taste would look like this:

Money supply definition:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moneysupply.asp

Go to the M0 max chart below. I see wealth effects coupled with major liquidity pumped into the economy by government spending & Fed, most definitely inflationary:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m0

If we tell ourselves that we are looking at the currency of the world’s current global empire and that there is a monetary plan involved that secures “status quo” by keeping pace with global GDP (m2) and looks to expand global market share of nominal dollars while maintaining real GDP in mind, this chart below is reflective of what is involved with the primary directives of monetary policy:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

This is where it gets interesting at least, for me. Guess I’ll touch on this now, if we looked at a max chart and then a 25 year chart and broke down the increases to the money supply over 5 year intervals, we would see from 2000 to 2005 (I’m ball parking here, just going off the chart we see to save time as I don’t have the time to look for something better) m2 grew from 4.6 trillion to 6.5 (41%). 2006 to 2010 M2 grew from 6.5 to 8 trillion (23%). 2010 to 2015, 8 trillion to 11.85 trillion (48%). 2015 to 2020, 11.85 trillion to 15.7 trillion (32.4%). 2020 to present just shy of 2 years, 15.7 trillion to 21 trillion (33.7%). Take note of how deflationary the GFC was to m2.

What we are looking at is an average 5 year increase in the m2 money supply taking place in over a little less than 2 years. Is this nice going on 13 year bull run we are on borrowing from the future? This chart says so.

Does it mean we are nearing the end of the trend? It does not but we are definitely closer than farther away from the inevitable cliff than we would have been.

“In fact, as bond yields rise some wags are suggesting a rotation from stocks into debt on the theory that equities are hitting the ceiling and risk-free bond interest is cool.” – Garth

The billion dollar question is when. When do we rotate out of stocks into bonds… before the markets fall apart is when but until then, yields will likely keep rising and bond coupon values keep falling as banks take profit and shed risk. I can’t help with the timeline, I can only point out the obvious elevated market risks.

One thing we can count on is the only thing that will end inflation is deflation. Bubbles popping. Market correction/crash. A commodity crash. Rising taxes. Rising rates. Higher unemployment. Incomes not keeping up with inflation. Incomes rising too fast squeezing margins. Household debt to GDP increases. All of these factors bite into disposable income and all of them have the potential to be their own first Domino’s. where there is one, the rest will likely follow.

#124 B Millman on 11.18.21 at 8:44 am

Coffee Mondays, bring coffee for everyone in the office.

Tie Tuesday, wear a tie to the office, preferably a fish tie etc.

Hump day Wednesday, enough said.

Military Thursday, wear camo to the office.

Casual Friday, wear sweatpants like you’ve given up…

Maybe it’s just better to work from home…