The dogfight

The election this year turned into a dogfight on who had the big plan to corral real estate prices.

Since the vote, nothing’s been fixed. Moreover, zip will happen until the spring budget. And meanwhile the housing stats just get worse. October sales surged as mortgage rates started to ascend. Bankers report their big golden gates are being thronged by people looking for pre-approvals at locked-in costs before things get more expensive.

Inventory continues to collapse. Across the country the supply is less than two months. In some hoods, it’s two weeks. And, nationally, prices went up 2.7% last month. That’s a 32% annualized, compared with the actual one-year surge of 20% for detached houses in Van and 29.7% in the steamy, house-lusty 905 part of the GTA.

So, anyone thinking the Justin-Jag tag team would tackle the realtors must feel jaded. In fact the steps we expect next – more money to help newbies pay closing costs and the weird FHSA tax shelter to create down payments, for example – will only make things more torrid. Plus, as Covid fades (and the economic implications are the virus are finito) Canada will be welcoming a lot of new citizens. Many will end up in YVR and the GTA, as usual. And this brings us to provincial politicians.

What’s coming?

In BC, as we mentioned, the glorious socialists in charge plan to let any buyer break a real estate contract with a seven-day cooling-off period. This is nuts, of course. It will allow people to bid on many properties at the same time, since they can wiggle out of any that go south or when a better one comes along. They can offer extreme bids to blow off competition without recourse. They can continue to shop the market after securing a property, knowing that nothing is contractually tied up. In short, it removes a market-driven price discipline and will allow values to inflate. This also makes selling an unstable experience with gossamer threads holding any deal in place. Hard to see how it does anything other than shrink inventory and swell prices.

Oh well. Capitalism was never a strong point for the Dippers.

But in Ontario the PC government is (presumably) far more rightist. And there’s an election in six months. Plus Doug Ford wants to succeed Erin O’Toole and become prime minister of the land. So the cost of housing is a mega-deal, and you can expect sparks.

Recently the Tories’ pollster has been collecting public opinion data on real estate. According to the CBC, these are the choices presented when this question is asked: “what should the government do to make housing more unaffordable?”

  • Make more land available to build homes.
  • Tax vacant homes.
  • Restrict developer profits.
  • Restrict foreign buyers.
  • Provide incentives to home buyers such as a tax credit.
  • Restrict some real estate practices such as blind bidding.
  • Put an end to people fighting developments in their neighbourhoods.
  • Force municipalities to be much quicker with their building permit process

Hmm.

Increasing the supply of homes is an obvious fix, but that takes years. And years. Even with land made available and approvals fast-tracked. Let’s hope it happens. BC is doing the same, but by allowing municipalities to bust single-family-only neighbourhood zoning. A recipe for conflict.

The question, then, is what can be done in the next six or 12 months to deal with this social dilemma? If Ontario chooses to incentivize buyers and further tax owners, the odds of success are zilch. Ending blind bidding would be cool, but what will replace it? Will prices fall if everyone bidding for a home is made aware of what the competing offers are?

And what happens come April when Ottawa’s First Home Savings Account allows loans from the Bank of Mom to be both tax-deductible and grow tax-free, then used as an untaxed and unrepayable down payment? Is that the next bomb to go off under prices? Will this hasten the Bank of Canada to begin its tightening cycle as Canada’s economy becomes more dangerously tilted to dirt? Already inflation’s out of control. Average detached house prices of $2 million will leave the rest of the world wondering what the hell Canadians are smoking. But, of course, we already know. Justin gave us that, too.

Meanwhile even the bankers are confused. CIBC’s Benny Tal suggested the other day that sane people should not even try to buy a house under these conditions. RBC’s economists say the affordability ‘challenge’ is about to get worse, “as prices continue to increase, interest rates rise and much of the strong income gains will decline – as sizeable government programs will be rolled back.” The bank holds out optimism that as the cost of money rises, “the base case scenario is for the housing market to cool, not collapse. We expect prices to flatten in the second half of 2022.”

So, will government make things better or worse?

If you were born before 1980, try not to laugh.

About the picture: “Here is Galileo age 7 our Brussels Griffon or to use the correct name our Griffon Bruxellois,” writes Elsbeth. “This is a breed so out of fashion that only 16 people in all these years have correctly identified him to me. 10,000 people have said ‘what is it, a Star Wars Ewok?’ This breed is healthy, the long-haired version is hypoallergic, they know if someone is even thinking of looking at your property and they love children. What’s not to like. The breed is hundreds of years old and feature as the family pet in a lot of 16th century Dutch masters’ painting so unlike a lot of pedigree dog breeds we know exactly what they are supposed to look like and ensure that current dog fashion doesn’t change them. Probably why they are so out of fashion then!”

130 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 4:18 pm

Ewok is right.

#2 BlogDog123 on 11.15.21 at 4:19 pm

re:
n BC, as we mentioned, the glorious socialists in charge plan to let any buyer break a real estate contract with a seven-day cooling-off period. This is nuts, of course. It will allow people to bid on many properties at the same time, since they can wiggle out of any that go south or when a better one comes along. They can offer extreme bids to blow off competition without recourse. They can continue to shop the market after securing a property, knowing that nothing is contractually tied up.

===
If the above gets implemented, it’ll be quite the s**t-show on the real estate front lines. Nervous sellers not knowing if they’ve really sold their property… Agents not knowing if they can “move on” to the next sale.

Yikes!

#3 Wrk.dover on 11.15.21 at 4:22 pm

The question, then, is what can be done in the next six or 12 months to deal with this social dilemma?
______________________________

FEMA trailers.

#4 Prince Polo on 11.15.21 at 4:23 pm

Will geriatric Mills who have their mid-life crisis before April, also qualify for the FHSA?
Note: only interested to convert it immediately to $40K equities like a good doggie.

On the other hand, one could take (Dis)honest (shyster) Realtor at his/her word of GTA housing going up 3X-4X from here by 2040, which directly translates to:
A) monthly mortgage payments of $9K – $12K for a starter condo
B) 4-generation 100yr mortgages
Note: sounds totally “affordable”, right?

#5 DrPlant on 11.15.21 at 4:24 pm

Why is “make lenders shoulder more risk” never an option on these surveys?

#6 Immigrant man on 11.15.21 at 4:28 pm

If you were born before 1980, try not to laugh.
——
I was born after, but I am already this wise/cynical. The only good is that I will probably be in position to get that second property in coveted southern ON when the RE prices tank.

#7 IHCTD9 on 11.15.21 at 4:30 pm

#168 SunShowers on 11.15.21 at 2:53 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 11.15.21 at 1:17 pm
“Yep there were. Plenty. Do some reading. Context is everything.
I get the feeling you have no idea how good you got it.”

What a ridiculous argument.
Just because things are better now than they were before before doesn’t mean that we therefore right now live in the single best possible way.
_______

Uhh, your original assertion was that slaves and labourers etc… were not happy in their work. To that I said untrue because the history books are full of examples of brutal labour being done in brutal conditions, for brutally long days by Men who were tickled pink to have the opportunity to do so. Brutal to us today, but just another day of work to them.

All your other jibba-jabba there was completely off-topic as to your original assertion that labourers etc.. could not be happy in their work and my rebuke.

#8 604Sam on 11.15.21 at 4:33 pm

He does look like a baby Ewok. Cute doggo.

#9 TurnerNation on 11.15.21 at 4:34 pm

On the permanent rolling Economic & Social Lockdowns:

Normalcy – soon! Remember this stuff is only going on in the Former First World Countries.
CV is doing exactly was it is designed to do. #reset.
(We will never ever add any hospital capacity – even with aging population and the record immigration. Don’t be silly.)

.Restrictions soon if Manitoba cannot control COVID-19 case eruption (cbc.ca)

.Manitoba implements new restrictions, vaccination rules amid COVID-19 spike (cbc.ca)

.Netherlands imposes lockdown measures as Covid cases hit new high (theguardian.com)

.Colorado, USA: New COVID rules for indoor venues on the way, governor says (kdvr.com)


— Science in Kanada. Does Pfizer approve of this?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/6-people-treated-monoclonal-antibodies-1.6235694
“Only six people with COVID-19 in Saskatchewan have been treated with monoclonal antibodies, despite the province having hundreds of doses on hand.
Monoclonal antibody treatment —a one-time injection of laboratory-made antibodies — is aimed at preventing COVID-19 patients who are unvaccinated or severely immunosuppressed from being hospitalized due to the virus.”

#10 Amok on 11.15.21 at 4:36 pm

The CMHC should be abolished.
Lenders should shoulder more risk.
Immigration should be increased.
Housing gains should be taxed.

Easy fixes.

#11 Neo on 11.15.21 at 4:38 pm

So the government is freezing property taxes to 2016 rates until 2024 huh. Just kicking the can down the road yet again. Heaven forbid these million dollar townhouses in the 905 pay the tax of a home that price.

#12 Felix on 11.15.21 at 4:38 pm

Dogfights can reduce the canine population, and are therefore highly beneficial to the planet.

Better that these dogawful pests attack each other, rather than your children, ripping their childhood smiles away and scarring them forever.

https://globalnews.ca/video/8362340/teen-allegedly-attacked-by-dog-at-toronto-taekwondo-studio

#13 Tom on 11.15.21 at 4:39 pm

I think we should bring more immigrants and foreign students in. That will fix the housing crises. Lol

#14 I’m stupid on 11.15.21 at 4:41 pm

How would a contract work if one party can exit the contract without penalties and the other party can’t? So the seller is obligated to fulfil their end but the buyer isn’t?

#15 Mork&Mindy on 11.15.21 at 4:46 pm

Watched an old episode of Mork and Mindy.

Fred, Mindy’s older balding father wants to get plastic surgery to get a little tuneup due to age and to keep up with his new young lady he’s dating.

Mork asks Mindy about type of man she likes. When Mindy says she likes a man like her father Mork decides to get plastic surgery like her dad is getting.

Mork wants so much done they won’t do it. So he ends up making himself over with a costume to look exactly like Fred for Mindy.

When Mindy asks him where he got the bald hair piece to look like her Dad, Mork says: “Pierre Trudeau!”

RETRO ZINGER!

#16 Big Five on 11.15.21 at 4:50 pm

#5 DrPlant

Why is “make lenders shoulder more risk” never an option on these surveys?

—-
In Canada, no one goes against what Big Five want.

Also, no politician bites the hand that feeds him.

Also, no politician gets in the position of having say over Big Five without being…well, let’s just say sponsored by…

#17 Linda on 11.15.21 at 4:50 pm

Galileo looks very much like dog royalty, sprawled on the very nice bedding. Also tres cute:)

I think the question should read ‘more affordable’, not ‘less’. Also, Doug Ford is thinking about running for leadership of the Conservatives with an eye to becoming the next PM? That should be interesting.

#18 Bob in Hamilton on 11.15.21 at 4:51 pm

‘Plus Doug Ford wants to succeed Erin O’Toole and become prime minister of the land.’

Not a fan of JT at all, but Doug Ford?

We are so screwed….

#19 Doug t on 11.15.21 at 4:53 pm

HAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

we are doomed as a nation – but hey the kids will carry the burden

#20 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.21 at 4:56 pm

2 pm.
St. Peter shuts the valves off.
The Pineapple Express has run out of diesel.
Went out to survey the damage.
The neighborhood mall’s parking lot was partially flooded.
Nothing major.
The civic workers were out all weekend to clean up problem areas.
Thank you all for your service.
The interior and Whistler got a meter of new snow.
Time to book the ski vacation.
Nothing beats being on top of the mountain with nothing but fresh powder.

#21 Faron on 11.15.21 at 4:58 pm

#174 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 3:54 pm

#170 Faron on 11.15.21 at 3:03 pm
#150 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 11:24 am

Thanks for the respectful, wide-ranging discussion.

You are welcome. I’ll discuss a wide rainge of topics with you. Respectfulness is predicated on respect. For you I have none.

So, back to the topic at hand; are you really this stupid?

#22 Pricedoutmillenial on 11.15.21 at 5:02 pm

Wondering what the Sold signs will be replaced with in BC. Any thoughts?

#23 kommykim on 11.15.21 at 5:03 pm

We won’t see 1981 interest rates any time soon, but we really don’t need to… Just going to 7-9% would throw an equivalent amount of water on the red hot RE market as 21% in the 80’s did.

#24 Dolce Vita on 11.15.21 at 5:06 pm

“Plus, as Covid fades (and the economic implications are the virus are finito)”

Glad to read that Delta follows the economy. Neat trick there Mother Nature. Clever girl.

Our World in Data with Europe, Canada and USA plotted shows the last 3 waves N. America follows Europe in suit. Europe on its 4th. Winter coming.

This is the worst pandemic ever by 21st century medicine standards. Bubonic plague #1, 3 and 5 in all time human pandemic deaths eradicated by antibiotics. These pandemics would simply not have happened today. #2 Influenza A/H1N1 neither with antivirals to kill it off and antibiotics for pneumonia side effects.

Leaves #4 HIV/AIDS controlled by antivirals and PrEP reducing the risk of contracting it by 99%.

That leaves Covid.

Vaccines control it but do not kill it off and still many fully vaxed contracting it – +20% * in the UK and THEY test unlike, comparatively speaking, Canada and the US. “Don’t test, Don’t count” (find test rates on your own).

21st century medicine controlling Covid but that’s about all.

Still time for it to mutate and even without that still a lot of people getting sick and dying. Add to that the no-vax crowd and a recipe for…

The Winter of discontent.

—————-

* Scroll to Graph 1.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-probably-peaked

#25 XGRO and chill on 11.15.21 at 5:09 pm

The big question on the TFFHSA is – is there a contribution limit, or can I dump $40K into it all in one year? How long do the funds need to be in the account before I can use them to buy a home? 90 days like an RRSP?

I hope they figure that out soon.

#26 Leftover on 11.15.21 at 5:09 pm

The Feds can blow this up in a single stroke – get CMHC out of the mortgage insurance business. It’s immoral (we shouldn’t be socializing real estate risk), and there are private companies that can do the same thing, with their shareholders on the hook not taxpayers.

#27 Squire on 11.15.21 at 5:10 pm

To paraphrase the immortal Garth…. we are pooched !

#28 cuke and tomato picker e on 11.15.21 at 5:14 pm

As far as housing is concerned the less government
intervention the better. If they do anything they could raise the stress test it is a buyer beware world let’s not have government coach people through every purchase.
Sounds harsh but necessary. However mentally ill
physically disabled and single mothers with children are to be provided for by the government.

#29 Do we have all the facts on 11.15.21 at 5:19 pm

Back the late seventies I became the first Director of Housing for a medium sized Canadian city. At the time the city held title to over 300 acres of serviced land and it was decided to develop portions of this vacant land for lower income families, not for profit and co-operative housing projects, and affordable housing for senior citizens.

Over a dozen projects were approved under the National Housing Act and close to 2,000 ‘affordable’ housing units were added to the market.

Response from the 70% of citizens who owned their homes was not quite what I expected. The development and sale of city owned lots at reasonable prices through a lottery system was immediately criticized by home owners, developers, and by some members of City Council. Their two main concerns were that support of affordable would lower the value of privately owned homes and that no government should be directly supporting the construction of affordable housing.

As it turned out the next election saw the end of municipal support for additional affordable housing initiatives. By 1995 the Federal government had also terminated nearly every social housing program in the NHA.

Between 1945 and 1994 the Federal government had invested over $40 billion to support a wide range of social and free market housing initiatives. Most Provincial governments spent billions more. Very little backlash from the general public occurred then.

In 2021 our governments seem reluctant to support the construction of 100,000 much needed extended care beds across Canada in spite of the fact that 96% of deaths attributed to Covid 19 in 2020 were over the age of 65. An increasing number of long term care facilities in Canada are being operated on a for profit basis with only the basic level of medical care. Tens of thousands of our most vulnerable citizens are currently homeless or living in substandard accommodation.

My point is that an increase in financial support for the development of affordable housing across Canada would not be popular in 2021. Free market capitalism has gained the upper hand and the 68% of Canadians that own their own homes do not see any real problem.

Housing has become a very successful asset class and no Federal, Provincial or Municipal politician wants to rock that valuable ‘vote’ I mean boat.

#30 Habitt on 11.15.21 at 5:23 pm

5 DrPlant it’s cause the liberals want our population at 100 million before this century’s end so we can keep our carbon footprint down. And it’s the only formula the feds have had since the Harper days to grow the economy. Thatsywhy they get the big bucks.

#31 Millennial 1%er on 11.15.21 at 5:25 pm

>will things get better
not before they get worse, garth

Thanks for the steady drum beat of blogging btw, very entertaining

#32 crossbordershopper on 11.15.21 at 5:28 pm

come april, you will see tfsa withdrawl to fund the tax deduction first time credit in kids name, or people will borrow against equities, I can do it at interactive brokers for 1.59% interest, man this is a shell game to be added to the piles. I got two nieces, 40K to each of them, money for everyone and houses for everyone, thanks Justin.

#33 RG on 11.15.21 at 5:29 pm

The yellow belt must be smashed!

https://smartdensity.com/the-yellow-belt/

#34 First Nations on 11.15.21 at 5:30 pm

A recent Ontario Court of Appeal ruling found that the Crown violated two treaties signed in 1850. The agreements cover a vast part of Northern Ontario, and were originally about sharing the wealth of the land. But the government has been paying the Anishinabe descendants of that land just $4 per person per year.

VIOLATED.

…and so it starts.

O Canada!
Our home and native land!

#35 SW on 11.15.21 at 5:34 pm

If Mr. Ford had stuck to his knitting, instead of trying to appease people who are never satisfied, he might be in the running federally. Likewise Mr. K. of Alberta.

Mr O’Toole is about as good as yer gonna get, guys. Stick with him, be nice and suck it up.

Incidentally, I hear that the UKIP party splinter in the UK formerly called the Brexit Party has decided to rebrand as Reform UK. That sounds healthy, but I’ve heard that somewhere before…

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.21 at 5:36 pm

#5 DrPlant on 11.15.21 at 4:24 pm
Why is “make lenders shoulder more risk” never an option on these surveys?
————————-
Yep.
Just a hunch:
This being a Tory poll.
Maybe because most conservatives hold Canadian Bank shares.?

#37 Grandv!ew on 11.15.21 at 5:43 pm

As mentioned in previous comments….

Politicians will poke and probe, thinker and kick the tires while trying to look compassionate and smart.

This will result in precisely nothing(or worse it might inflate the issue).

It is impossible to fix Canadian economy without reversing of the real estate values to the mean.

This would entail that average dwelling in Vancouver and Toronto is 5-8 average incomes. In the rest of the country average dwelling would be 3-5 average incomes.

If anyone is still delusional and believes that more density will result in increased affordability please read this:

“Hutchinson recalled one person asking him a rhetorical question. ‘Who on Earth could actually believe that the solution to the housing crisis is less density?’ Hutchinson said, ‘Who couldn’t? Just look at all the examples around you.’”

https://twitter.com/Hutchyman/status/1459969245396103168

https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-half-duplex-presold-for-more-than-price-of-original-detached-home-at-2898000

Today’s sign of the apocalypse:

1 bed + den, 1 bath

$13,500

No not monthly rent, to buy 2.5% of the condo.

People are listing fractional ownership of condos in 2.5% increments.

https://twitter.com/jasonpereira/status/1457887854063931394

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23801673/203-68-abell-st-toronto-little-portugal

Why would we even need more homes?

https://betterdwelling.com/the-world-has-millions-of-vacant-homes-and-1-3-million-are-in-canada-oecd/

#38 Chameleon on 11.15.21 at 5:45 pm

#12 Felix

You haven’t had enough bad news Felix?

Here is more!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/a-zoos-three-beloved-snow-leopards-die-of-covid-19

#39 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 5:45 pm

#21 Faron on 11.15.21 at 4:58 pm
#174 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 3:54 pm

Thanks for the respectful, wide-ranging discussion.

——-

You are welcome. I’ll discuss a wide rainge of topics with you. Respectfulness is predicated on respect. For you I have none.

So, back to the topic at hand; are you really this stupid?

——-

Sigh. No need to be disrespectful just because you were wrong again. It happens.

Oh, you misspelled ‘range’.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 5:45 pm

@#34 1st Nations
“But the government has been paying the Anishinabe descendants of that land just $4 per person per year.

++++

$4 was a lot of money in 1850.
If they had of invested in an ETF 170 years ago…..they would be richer than Bezos.

#41 SunShowers on 11.15.21 at 5:50 pm

#7 IHCTD9 on 11.15.21 at 4:30 pm
If you want to object to further progress for workers because “some workers in the more regressive past were happy despite being worse off than today,” then put your money where your mouth is.

Work 16+ hour days, 7 days a week, with no vacation or days off, for 3rd world subsistence wages. You would be happy, right? That’s what you said. People were happy to do this work, so why don’t you walk the walk and do it yourself?

#42 Logical Song on 11.15.21 at 5:51 pm

#10 Amok

The CMHC should be abolished.
Lenders should shoulder more risk.
Immigration should be increased.
Housing gains should be taxed.

Easy fixes.

/\/\/\/\/\/\

Quick talking logic.

This is an impossible problem with many complicated issues.

Crazy home prices in this 6-month-a-year winter wonderland are a small price to pay for…economic growth.

#43 Chameleon on 11.15.21 at 5:54 pm

#38 Chameleon on 11.15.21 at 5:45 pm
#12 Felix

You haven’t had enough bad news Felix?

Here is more!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/a-zoos-three-beloved-snow-leopards-die-of-covid-19

>
By the way, all the vaccines had animal trials before human trials, so that step wasn’t skipped.

Why didn’t they give these higher risk, rare or endangered animals the vaccine for crying out loud? I’m sure there were a few in the city that were going to expire? Heck…give the cats one that’s 1 day expired!

What a waste of three magnificent creatures.

#44 VladTor on 11.15.21 at 6:05 pm

….
Tax vacant homes.
Restrict developer profits.
Restrict foreign buyers.
Restrict some real estate practices such as blind bidding.

************
Can help a little bit and for sure should provide immediately – since tomorrow and without discussing.

Especially need…Restrict developer profits. One day (I’m thinking it was somewhere between 2015 and 2017) I spent couple hours an check how much cost lumber steel and other materials which using for houses. I was surprised – prices was flat during decades. Of course exist there are other costs…. but all of them is flat during decades (exclude now – b’s pandemic! )…. but home prices increased 2-3 times. So developers doing unbelievable profits – need to stop it. And, please don’t tell me about free self regulated capitalism market. Not exist now. Everywhere cartels!

One more point can help – cancel CMHC and immediately provide capital gain tax for selling houses and restriction rules for flipping.

Question is – which government will be brave enough to provide this? Not in Canada!

#45 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.15.21 at 6:12 pm

CANADIANS HELPING CANADIANS.
Cash is King, has a wonderful ring. This saying came from hard times. Ready cash gives you the # 1 vehicle to avoid deprivation, options, and “INSTANT BUYING POWER.” Yes, cash is king in hard times, and as the coming deflation hits, ready cash swoops in. Buying out liabilities to help other Canadians in hard times, is the Canadian way. Like so many other speculative bubbles, I expect most of the coming damage will come off the top, however for the man with ready cash, market conditions will become reasonably investable within the following year or two. The game plan. Keep your powder dry, conserve your cash, be patient, your time to scoop is fast approaching. Amen Brother.

#46 Cheese on 11.15.21 at 6:20 pm

19/hr at the Ottawa general, full time, but I’ve done worse jobs.

Anyone looking for a hard worker?

#47 Faron on 11.15.21 at 6:21 pm

#39 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 5:45 pm

#21 Faron on 11.15.21 at 4:58 pm

Oh, you misspelled ‘range’.

Good job clippy. I’ve been trolling you with intentional misspellings for a while now. You missed a few, but you caught that one. I’m going to have to find a more reliable spell checker though.

The charge was dismissed meaning that it wasn’t proven one or the other way. As far as I can tell the charge can be tried at a later date (however unlikely that is).

What we do know with 100% certainty is that Kyle was in posession of an assault rifle. We know that it was purchased for him and that the purchaser is facing two felony charges for supplying a deadly weapon to a miner. Just like your Jello Puddin’ eating pal Bill Cosby, he’s off on this one for a technicality.

If the law were to be fairly applied (a complete laughable joke) then the implication of the above is that supplying AR 15s to minors is A.O.K. Now, that could mean giving guns to people you don’t like (real criminals like drug dealers and the like, not mere human killers like Kyle). You know, the kind of thing idiots think is alright. Like yourself.

#48 rolldaddy of surrey on 11.15.21 at 6:24 pm

#41 Sunshowers
I am not alone when I say that people are tired of your constant spewing of delusional Marxist rubbish. The veritaphobia is getting tedious.
Showing your moral superiority by somehow attaching your sympathy to ancient generations who suffered, is way beyond a rational approach to thought.
Obviously, some people are so concerned with virtue signalling that they ignore such concepts as truth and reason

#49 VladTor on 11.15.21 at 6:29 pm

…In BC, as we mentioned, the glorious socialists in charge plan to let any buyer break a real estate contract with a seven-day cooling-off period.

************

Very good. Need to be done/ Moreover – 7 days not enough. 10-14 – better.

Garth! I know from previous yours post – you against this idea. But why? Lets have a look.
With all my deep respect for you as a professional in politics and finance, I disagree with you and I think other readers here will support me .

A house is the same commodity as a TV or a car. I can return them to the seller at the agreed time (possibly by paying a fine) if after the purchase I find that I was deceived or the quality of the goods does not meet my expectations. The ability to return the house will stop fraud and improve the health of the market. Blind auctions will disappear automatically. Sellers will honestly advertising their houses to avoid returns … and so on.
Now – I buying house and after 3 days I find that the foundation is cracked … What are your actions?

#50 John on 11.15.21 at 6:30 pm

New Immigrants are not the ones buying all the houses. Most would not qualify for atleast a few years. Its Canadians who are buying houses and muliple properties. Immigrants are the ones renting the apartments and making Homesteads and other greedy landlords rich.

#51 Phylis on 11.15.21 at 6:31 pm

#5 DrPlant on 11.15.21 at 4:24 pm
Why is “make lenders shoulder more risk” never an option on these surveys?
Xxxxxxxx
Can you direct me to how much cmhc has payed out due to defaults? The wiki page shows that it performs many other beneficial items to society even including indigenous youth. Whodathunkit?

#52 willworkforpickles on 11.15.21 at 6:35 pm

“They can offer extreme bids to blow off competition without recourse.”
………………..

A seller hiring a friend with a realtor combo to put in a bogus high bid to inform and sway legit bidders in a bidding war of a high bid to go higher is being done by sellers already.
The seller pays his personal friend – the bogus bidder and his RE agent buddy for their participation.
The realtor gives the deposit check used to look legit back to the bogus bidder and the FOMO inflicted sucker who just paid a half a million dollars over ask is none the wiser.
This unscrupulous practice doesn’t happen with near every RE transaction but does happen with more transactions than even those who suspect think.
…and all illegit without recourse.

No, it is not legal. – Garth

#53 Sonny Kang on 11.15.21 at 6:37 pm

This one thing would solve the whole mess, but our GUTLESS politicians will never take this bold step.

There is NOT one of them with a spine to do it!

===================================

26 Leftover on 11.15.21 at 5:09 pm

The Feds can blow this up in a single stroke – get CMHC out of the mortgage insurance business. It’s immoral (we shouldn’t be socializing real estate risk), and there are private companies that can do the same thing, with their shareholders on the hook not taxpayers.

#54 I'mshort_corpdebt on 11.15.21 at 6:37 pm

what can be done in the next six or 12 months to deal with this social dilemma?

Long ago this question might have been addressed and resolved if only other countries’ models were studied and how their RE industry was regulated to avoid the mess Canada is in. But we follow the destructive crony capitalist model of the US.

I’ll say it AGAIN – close the blind bid loophole.
Once a potential buyer submits an offer, first come first serve – the said property is “under offer” and the there actually is a paper trail with a real offer.

Get the crooked realtors off the crystal meth and their promise to get their seller top dollars by having them do real math with sq footage comparisons, days on market etc… This game of listing and delisting stale properties, trying to hide actual sales numbers, the list goes on and on…

Our media and politicians… ahh forget it!

#55 Nonplused on 11.15.21 at 6:40 pm

The home price thing is like a 3-sided coin.

On the one side you have the poor adultlets priced out of the market.

On the other side you have the 70% of homeowners who have big gains in this market. You don’t hear them complain about housing prices.

And on the third side you have the home builders, who need certain prices to be able to afford to build new product. And those prices aren’t cheap because all the costs are through the roof and it takes forever to get approvals. Gone are the days when pretty much anybody could buy a piece of land and subdivide. Now you need to be Midas to get in that business.

Pretty much none of the proposed “solutions” will do anything to make houses cheaper. (Except perhaps making it easier to greenlight new projects.) Any real solution has to be found in the supply-demand balance. So the only 2 things that can be done is to decrease demand by increasing interest rates substantially, or increasing supply by somehow making it profitable to produce new houses/condos/what-have-you for less than can be done today, and at a more rapid rate.

All the rest is just fiddling while Rome burns.

#56 Dogman01 on 11.15.21 at 6:41 pm

“The Alpinist” and Canadian Real Estate.

Show on Amazon about this unknown exceptional Canadian mountain climber dude, Marc-André Leclerc.

As I watched the documentary I observed that the other professional climbers seemed a bit older and in awe of this guy. Marc was fearless, driven and obsessed. The other climbers were good but had an awareness of a future after climbing. Marc it seemed the climb was alpha and omega, everything.

It is the same thing in Canadian Real Estate, no metric justifies it, no average income supports it. To compete you are “all-in!” and likely your family is in with you. Unless you are willing to likely financially destroy yourself with debt a rational person just can’t play the Canadian Real Estate Game in many places.

Unfortunate the entire Canadian economy is the belayer to the epic risk taking.

#57 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.15.21 at 6:42 pm

REAL ESTATE AGENTS CAUGHT CHEATING. RECENT TORONTO STAR REPORT.
Humber College sanctions 34 realtors for ‘deliberate and organized misconduct’ related to licensing exams
Tess Kalinowski
By Tess KalinowskiReal Estate Reporter
Fri., Nov. 12, 2021timer2 min. read
Thirty-four Toronto area realtors have lost the provincial registration that allows them to sell real estate in Ontario after Humber College found “deliberate and organized misconduct” relating to exams in its Real Estate Education Program.

In a statement posted on Nov. 2, the college said it is aware of misconduct around the completion of exams and that it will be reviewing past, current and future exams to identify other instances of misconduct or suspicious behaviour.

The specifics of the misconduct are still unclear.

Humber says it has suspended and sanctioned those responsible and it has notified industry regulator, the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO), of the registered salespeople who were guilty of the misconduct.

RECO’s website shows it terminated the registration of 34 salespeople on Oct. 29. In each case, the council cited “failure to complete the designated educational courses required to be eligible to practice under the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act, 2002.”

In an emailed statement, Humber said it takes academic integrity seriously and that the real estate program “has robust measures” to monitor exams, along with policies to discourage academic misconduct. It said those measures are consistent with other programs at the college and those of other institutions.

All Humber exams, including those conducted online, are subject to proctoring using a virtual service called Proctortrack, says the college’s website.

Humber’s “learner misconduct policy” cites plagiarism, copying, buying exams and collaboration on the completion of assignments as being subject to penalties.

Realtors are required to take five courses and two rounds of business simulations to qualify for registration with RECO. After that, agents have two years to complete another three courses.

To register for the Humber real estate program, an applicant must have graduated high school or have a designated equivalency. It costs $3,590 to take the pre-registration program. The three post-registration courses cost $570, according to the college website.

In 2019, RECO gave Humber the responsibility for training new real estate agents. Until then, the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) had provided education for the sector. At the time of the change OREA expressed concern about the rigour of online education and testing.

On Friday, however, it sent the Star a statement lauding the swift action by RECO and Humber.

“Anybody caught cheating during real estate program examinations should be kicked out of the profession and there should be a thorough investigation of any existing agency or brokerages who may have been assisting,” said OREA CEO Tim Hudak.

He said the association is working with RECO and Humber “to support the robust measures taken to preserve the integrity of the real estate profession and weed out anyone who did not legitimately pass their licensing exams.”

Tess Kalinowski
Tess Kalinowski is a Toronto-based reporter covering real estate for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @tesskalinowski

#58 I'mshort_corpdebt on 11.15.21 at 6:48 pm

“Will prices fall if everyone bidding for a home is made aware of what the competing offers are?”

YES, yes and yes! Look at the European model. If the seller is stubborn, let the buyers and not the realtors determine the price of an average home by moving along to another seller.

Why is it the properties that are FSBO seem to get bad results or no bids?? Because the the process of removing the gate keeper (realtor) creates real competitive bids.

#59 Nonplused on 11.15.21 at 6:49 pm

#43 Chameleon on 11.15.21 at 5:54 pm
#38 Chameleon on 11.15.21 at 5:45 pm
#12 Felix

You haven’t had enough bad news Felix?

Here is more!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/a-zoos-three-beloved-snow-leopards-die-of-covid-19

>
By the way, all the vaccines had animal trials before human trials, so that step wasn’t skipped.

Why didn’t they give these higher risk, rare or endangered animals the vaccine for crying out loud? I’m sure there were a few in the city that were going to expire? Heck…give the cats one that’s 1 day expired!

What a waste of three magnificent creatures.

——————————————

More disturbing perhaps is the idea that snow leopards and deer can get covid, and die from it. And bats of course. So I think we can conclude pretty much all mammals. That is particularly bad news, if true.

#60 Maybe not on 11.15.21 at 6:54 pm

#6 Immigrant man on 11.15.21 at 4:28 pm

-The world financial system was very different pre 1980.

I’m a similar age to you. There is an entire generation of people below us that are priced out and not happy about it because they are in family formation mode. If the market wobbles, there is a ton of demand ready to put a floor to prices. Tons of people have the same idea.

Anyone who waited has been essentially priced out. People aren’t necessarily buying for profit now, they are afraid they won’t ever get a chance to buy.

The 80’s aren’t ever coming back.

#61 45north on 11.15.21 at 6:55 pm

Increasing the supply of homes is an obvious fix, but that takes years. And years. Even with land made available and approvals fast-tracked. Let’s hope it happens. BC is doing the same, but by allowing municipalities to bust single-family-only neighbourhood zoning. A recipe for conflict.

in Ottawa the New Official Plan allows the municipality to bust single-family-only neighbourhood zoning.

https://ottawa.ca/en/news/city-approves-new-official-plan

based on the perception that the private market has failed. As if the private market was private. The Federal Government has huge influence over price. Interest rates, CMHC regulations, buying mortgage-backed bonds from the banks and the FHSA tax shelter. These programs are the creation of the Federal Government.

There’s laziness here combined with political calculation. It’s laziness to think that the housing market is private. In a way it is private. People buying and selling houses is their private affair, but at the top of the food chain is the Federal Government. The political parties such as the Liberals and Conservatives have calculated that a policy to reduce the price of housing would lose votes. Ergo they put forward policies to keep housing prices high. How high? November 11, Garth posted two charts showing that compared to the US, Canadian house prices have soared. Day after day, Garth points out that the Canadian housing market is unsustainable. There is no way, we can afford it.

So government program is piled on government program. Rule on rule. To keep housing prices high. It’s very much like a ponzi scheme. What’s it going to look like when it collapses?

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 6:56 pm

@#41 Sunshowers always make me happy

“Work 16+ hour days, 7 days a week, with no vacation or days off, for 3rd world subsistence wages.”

+++

Actually it’s 12 hours a day 6 days a week.
996 in China means
9am to 9pm , 6 days a week.
Gives you a day off to shop, do laundry and chill.
Hundreds of MILLIONS of workers do this every day without complaint because…if they do….they’re gone.

These workers would happily push you out of your chair, sit in it and then ……
Eat…..your …..lunch…….

Just to get a crack at what you have.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 6:59 pm

@#43 Faron.

On a sugar water high again Faron?

If you run as fast as you type I think we may win a medal in the next Olympics.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 7:00 pm

@#59 Nonplused
“More disturbing perhaps is the idea that snow leopards and deer can get covid, and die from it. ”

+++
They should have worn masks, social distanced and not listened to the Ivermectin salesmen.
Get ya every time.

#65 Lee on 11.15.21 at 7:04 pm

How’s Doug Ford going to become PM if he can’t speak French?

#66 Harold Spleen on 11.15.21 at 7:09 pm

Justin’s massive ‘no-consequence’ borrowing at rate zero is killing the housing market and the sycophantic BOC is willfully collaborating with him in our downfall. Freeland ludicrous idea that money creation is free of consequence is absurd. And rampant inflation is what she brings. We know Justin and Kyristia are merely following the “ great plan” to lower living standards by inducing a jocks pocus on the west, but consequences are slapping the daylights out of them. Consequences !!! Period.

#67 fishman on 11.15.21 at 7:10 pm

Before my holiday got the occupancy permit for a $350k 3 year upgrade in Van town. Myself, along with all of my small time property developer/investor buddies are running, not walking, away from building,renovating, anything. Doing the smart thing & doing nothing in R/E till lil potato takes us to a less scary place.

#68 Steven Rowlandson on 11.15.21 at 7:31 pm

“Oh well. Capitalism was never a strong point for the Dippers.”

The capitalists always have been the employers and paymasters for the communists or if you like the left. The Communists function as the mailed fist of the capitalists and a fake opposition. Otherwise the communist revolutions of the 20th century would have been crushed and the extreme right would have snuffed out the USSR, CCP, Cuba, DPRK, Vietnam and the rest of those foolish political experiments long ago. Communism in modern times originates in western academia, think tanks and temples of money, Judaism and freemasonry. Big money needs some way to destroy the opposition and the idealists that stand in its way. More than 100 years ago they came up with the Red terror and world war1, now they are using other means but it is the same type of people and thinking behind it all.

#69 Garth's Son Drake on 11.15.21 at 7:32 pm

We are under water in BC. Literally.

Entire town of Merritt is a lake and has evacuated.

Every highway is shut down.

The Coq is destroyed.

#70 IHCTD9 on 11.15.21 at 7:41 pm

#41 SunShowers on 11.15.21 at 5:50 pm
#7 IHCTD9 on 11.15.21 at 4:30 pm
If you want to object to further progress for workers because “some workers in the more regressive past were happy despite being worse off than today,” then put your money where your mouth is.
—-

2nd time:

You asserted the workers weren’t happy to do the work. I told you plenty were. TONS of evidence out there. That’s it, nothing else. I made zero comments regarding progress of workers or anything else.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 7:55 pm

@#57 Nostrodamus
“RECO’s website shows it terminated the registration of 34 salespeople on Oct. 29. In each case, the council cited “failure to complete the designated educational courses required to be eligible to practice under the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act, 2002.”

+++

I guess they skipped the “Ethics 101” portion of the course?

#72 mousey on 11.15.21 at 8:10 pm

It’s hard to focus on the economy, Covid or my finances just now – the wind storm, rain and the “atmospheric river” are causing an untethered barge in English Bay to drift towards the Burrard Street Bridge. We are told that the Coast Guard are watching this. Great, somebody is watching.

#73 Conspiratard on 11.15.21 at 8:14 pm

Ontario reports 666 new cases.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-reports-666-new-cases-of-covid-19-seven-additional-deaths-1.5665612

The Devil is in the details.

666

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

#74 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.15.21 at 8:16 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 6:59 pm

The only thing that runs with regards to F(a)ron, is his mouth…

#75 TurnerNation on 11.15.21 at 8:31 pm

Q3 supply chain shortages? Rain or man made.

“Vancouver is now completely cut off from the rest of Canada by road”
https://www.kelownanow.com/watercooler/news/news/Provincial/Vancouver_is_now_completely_cut_off_to_the_rest_of_Canada_by_road/


–Science in Kanada. Almost a normal winter right? Fun with numbers:

(PEI Health) “Anyone who visited any of these locations at these times who is not fully vaccinated should visit a drop-in testing clinic to be tested and monitor for symptoms for 14 days from the exposure. If symptoms develop, individuals should be re-tested.

Anyone who visited these locations at these times who is fully vaccinated should monitor for symptoms for 14 days and if any symptoms develop, visit a drop-in testing clinic.”
https://www.princeedwardisland.ca/en/news/three-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-pei-7


— Yup we almost normal here in Booster Nation. Is there anything CV cannot do?

.Despite NHL’s 99% Vaccination Rate, Ottawa Senators Games Postponed Due To COVID (outkick.com)

#76 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 8:33 pm

#47 Faron on 11.15.21 at 6:21 pm
#39 Sail Away

Good job clippy. I’ve been trolling you with intentional misspellings for a while now. You missed a few, but you caught that one. I’m going to have to find a more reliable spell checker though.

——–

That makes sense, Foron. I, too, sometimes intentionally misspell words for ironical wordplay.

#77 Pardon Moi on 11.15.21 at 8:35 pm

Not sure what all the fuss is about regarding the cooling off period. A due diligence period has always been pretty standard in Florida real estate usually around 15 days if I recall. This gives the purchaser time to inspect things like home owner association or condo docs. If you find something that doesn’t work for you, you can walk on the deal. The realtors complaining about is reason enough to think its a good idea.

#78 Nonplused on 11.15.21 at 8:38 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 7:00 pm
@#59 Nonplused
“More disturbing perhaps is the idea that snow leopards and deer can get covid, and die from it. ”

+++
They should have worn masks, social distanced and not listened to the Ivermectin salesmen.
Get ya every time.

———————————–

All joking aside (sometimes laughter is all there is left to do) what I was referring to is that if this thing spreads among different types of mammals it is going to be near impossible to contain. I don’t think giving Ivermectin to horses will be quite enough.

#79 Yukon Elvis on 11.15.21 at 8:39 pm

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 6:56 pm
@#41 Sunshowers always make me happy

“Work 16+ hour days, 7 days a week, with no vacation or days off, for 3rd world subsistence wages.”

+++

Actually it’s 12 hours a day 6 days a week.
996 in China means
9am to 9pm , 6 days a week.
Gives you a day off to shop, do laundry and chill.
Hundreds of MILLIONS of workers do this every day without complaint because…if they do….they’re gone.

These workers would happily push you out of your chair, sit in it and then ……
Eat…..your …..lunch…….

Just to get a crack at what you have.
++++++++++++++++++
You are exactly right. That is how they rose from nothing to super power status in fifty years. And they are expanding across the world. Like the Borg. Resistance is futile.

#80 Fantastic Mr Fox on 11.15.21 at 8:57 pm

– Canada keeps the immigration tap open
– Not enough houses are built
– The newcomers have to live somewhere
– Everybody wants to become a landlord because “houses always go up” and “it brings some money”
– In 3-5 years the newcomer will want to buy its own house
– But again, there are not enough houses built
– The ones who saw their houses go up can get a HELOC for a down-payment and buy another investment property
– The buyer who arrived to Canada 5 years ago has to be ready to give 70% of the income on housing, or never to be able to buy
– In the meantime we have the government who is scared to somehow “impact the wealth of the homeowners”
– The banks are glad to lend the money insured by CMHC
– The CMHC is rising silently the limit of the borrowed money

So considering the above, do you really think the rates will have any impact on the house prices?
Do you still consider that the housing is not the best investment the Canadians saw in the last 20 years?
In 2010 a family with 50k got 1000% on their investment in 10 years.

#81 greaterfool on 11.15.21 at 9:05 pm

nothing that the provincial government can do to make the house more affordable.

it starts with un-limited money printing, which bubbles up the prices of asset, then those risk-takers who invested in RE earlier and take tax-free profit become genius and role model, then everyone believes you have to join the game otherwise your money is de-valued everyday.

everyone knows this is a bubble, but it is already too-big-to-fail, you either join the party, or be left out as a fool. When the party ends, no one is exempted.

SAD.

#82 Bad Santa on 11.15.21 at 9:09 pm

DELETED

#83 Habitt on 11.15.21 at 9:10 pm

50 John don’t get out and about much do ya.

#84 the Jaguar on 11.15.21 at 9:18 pm

Wouldn’t it be more expeditious to just ‘cut to the chase’ and admit that Galileo, the Brussels Griffon is really a Werewolf? Just look at that face, for Pete’s Sake. Mercy. Break out the emergency garlic supply.

On a more sympathetic note, (much as it pains me to extend same west of the Alberta border where treachery, betrayal and alarm run naked through the streets most days… ), our provincial neighbours in B.C. are literally ‘under water’.

We’ve had our own ‘flood’ issues in recent memory here in Calgary and environs, so please everyone stay safe. Poor Merrrit, BC, “So far from God, so close to torrential rains. ”

For you peeps in eastern Canada, if you have never been to B.C. , just know it’s one big furry province of trees and hills. While Albertans love to vacation there, there is a certain ‘claustrophobia’ that sets in while in the BC interior. When the #1 or #93 highway is closed it’s like those lyrics from Hotel California. ‘You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave….gulp”….. Seriously, I hope everyone remains safe until the storm passes through. Only light fog today in Calgary, but we can expect serious wind action as the situation resolves itself.

Here’s an inspirational message from George and Tammy to everybody in British Columbia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhIKa1g5L6M

#85 AK on 11.15.21 at 9:19 pm

“Tax vacant homes.”

There are 3 empty houses within a 5 minute walk from my home. One day, higher rates should solve the empty house problem.

#86 fishman on 11.15.21 at 9:38 pm

Now mousey, lets not get melodramatic. I happened to be at Kits point when it came loose from the Kits mooring buoy. I watched it go aground at English Bay. There is no way it could get to Burrard bridge. Phoned the owner who was in Prince Rupert on his other tug. Pretty dramatic. Went up on a bull high tide. Almost touching the seawall walkway. Check it out on the news tonite. Those are the big boys that the cowboys bring down the mighty Fraser.

#87 Faron on 11.15.21 at 9:49 pm

#76 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 8:33 pm

So, you agree that criminal arms trafficking to minors is a good thing? That giving this a pass sets a good precedent that might make it much much easier for anyone who is young and packing to get off on weapons charges?

Or is it only when the arms wind up in the hands of miners who flash white supremacy signs a few days after killing two unarmed humans? This is very confusing to me.

But, I also have this crazy, data-backed notion (data that’s hard to come by because of the gun lobbie) that increased gun ownership leads to increased gun violence. Which is strange, because more guns carrying more rounds by more people likely to be far-right or otherwise a little off really shouldn’t lead to increased gun violence. At least, that’s what fox nuse tells me. I wish this avalanche of facts would get out of my way so that I can discover what the reel faxts are for reelz. You know, like the anti vaxxers, I need to “do my own research”.

#88 Faron on 11.15.21 at 10:00 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.21 at 6:59 pm

Darn, I thought I was the one lacking self awareness.

#74 ImGonnaBeSick on 11.15.21 at 8:16 pm

The only thing that runs with regards to F(a)ron, is his mouth

= “I don’t like what you are saying, but am powerless to stop you from saying it so I’ll just bleat shrilly.”

#89 Grunt on 11.15.21 at 10:08 pm

Doug Ford PM?

Garth could you seriously imagine him with the French or the Japanese? He’d be completely out of his element.

#90 Sail Away on 11.15.21 at 10:41 pm

#87 Faron on 11.15.21 at 9:49 pm

Re: Rittenhouse trial

——-

I don’t think Garth wants this discussed on his forum.

Probably best to let the court and jury work out a fair verdict.

#91 Elon Fanboy on 11.15.21 at 10:56 pm

So this fun, months worth of rain 2 days….Vancouver cut off from the East, every major HW East is closed. Victoria cut off from the rest of the Island. Merritt underwater and evacuating. Hope cut off from everyone, so BC is officially ‘hopeless’…sorry bad joke.

The Beaverton was quick off the mark though with “BC Ferries open new routes to Kamloops”.

#92 mmehan on 11.15.21 at 11:16 pm

I don’t know if agents aren’t using print media anymore the the Real Estate weekly flyer in the paper in the Fraser Valley has less than 10 pages now and I remember it being like a small book.

#93 ulsterman on 11.15.21 at 11:23 pm

“We expect prices to flatten in the second half of 2022.” This is why real estate has proven to be such a win over 20 years. Even the declines are flat to single digit. Then it’s generally followed by more years of stellar growth.

Makes no sense slowly growing local incomes but…it just keeps on happening. Vancouver housing bears are like the Tesla-Q shorts. They “know” they’re right, but 10 or 20 years of market reality says otherwise. It pains me to write this because i was a housing bear for YEARS.

#94 Ballingsford on 11.15.21 at 11:40 pm

Why is they asking for the public’s thoughts on how to solve the housing crisis? Fed, Prov, and Municipalities, have their best minds working on it. Are they stumped?

Likely.

#95 SunShowers on 11.16.21 at 12:02 am

#48 rolldaddy of surrey
Next time you feel the need to insert yourself into a conversation between two other people, do yourself a favor and familiarize yourself with the past context that you have missed. It will save you from looking foolish in the future.

#70 IHCTD9 on 11.15.21 at 7:41 pm
Once again, you miss it. I never said ALL workers were unhappy to do that work. To quote myself from yesterday:

“I’m sure many people were content with their wretched lot in life throughout the ages.

Slaves who were content to be slaves.
Child laborers who were content to be child laborers.
Workers who were content to work in unsafe conditions.
Workers who were content to work 16 hour days with no weekend.

At the time, they thought they were making the best of an inevitable situation, but now everyone agrees that these ‘inevitable situations’ were unjust and abhorrent, and more often than not served to enrich the few with the sweat and misery of the many.”

Did you think the first part was sarcasm? It wasn’t.

But if you think the working conditions of the past were acceptable simply because some workers weren’t particularly bothered by them, then I would question what right you have to object to working in those conditions yourself. Why aren’t you walking the walk?

If you think, like I do, that the working conditions of the past were abhorrent, regardless of how the workers back then may have felt about it at the time, then there is no real reason to assume that future generations wouldn’t find our current work arrangement similarly abhorrent.

There is nothing unique about our current situation that would lead one to assume it should be this way unto eternity. A 40 hour work week was as unconscionable to capitalists in centuries past as a 20 hour work week is to capitalists today. There is no argument that can be levied against working less in the 21st century that was not levied against working less in the 19th century. Those arguments failed then, and, in time, they will fail again.

#96 DON on 11.16.21 at 12:32 am

#23 kommykim on 11.15.21 at 5:03 pm
We won’t see 1981 interest rates any time soon, but we really don’t need to… Just going to 7-9% would throw an equivalent amount of water on the red hot RE market as 21% in the 80’s did.

*********

Yup!

Average houses a cool million plus now a days not the 60 to 240k in the 80’s.

Lost on most folks. The 80’s will not return, especially big hair and acid washed jeans but human nature always returns. Fear is greator than greed…the next stage.

#97 Nonplused on 11.16.21 at 1:24 am

It’s not so hard to understand really. And smart people have explained it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHhUo2CZ-lM

#98 Overheardyou on 11.16.21 at 3:23 am

I’m born after 1980 and still laughed, when everyone thinks their lottery ticket’s a winner, somethings seriously up (in the wrong direction)

#99 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 5:43 am

#89 Grunt on 11.15.21 at 10:08 pm
Doug Ford PM?

Garth could you seriously imagine him with the French or the Japanese? He’d be completely out of his element
______________________________________

Brother Rob was great with the Jamaicans in the Dixon.

#100 Ben on 11.16.21 at 6:44 am

There is no doubt that the number one reason homes cost as much as they do in many Canadian cities is low supply. This is due to the slow process to approve building projects AND the numerous greenbelts that have been put in place. Restricting the development of homes near large cities like Toronto is ludicrous. Think about how silly this is – we have the second largest country in the world, a very small population and yet we don’t apparently have enough housing? Again, like always, socialist public policy has created this mess.

#101 Sail Away on 11.16.21 at 6:46 am

#91 Elon Fanboy on 11.15.21 at 10:56 pm

So this fun, months worth of rain 2 days….Vancouver cut off from the East, every major HW East is closed. Victoria cut off from the rest of the Island. Merritt underwater and evacuating. Hope cut off from everyone, so BC is officially ‘hopeless’…sorry bad joke.

The Beaverton was quick off the mark though with “BC Ferries open new routes to Kamloops”.

——–

Yep, it’s been quite a week. Nanaimo has weathered it well and the engineering work abounds!

Our offices will all be putting in 60 hour weeks and getting handsomely compensated this winter. From the office.

#102 Chalkie on 11.16.21 at 7:12 am

Garth, You mentioned that capitalism was never a strong point for dippers, did you mean diapers— what a mess it will be in the Horizon down turn.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.21 at 7:27 am

@#88 Faron
“Darn, I thought I was the one lacking self awareness.”

++++

Your intelligence is artificial?

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.21 at 7:34 am

@#95 Sunshowers
“A 40 hour work week was as unconscionable to capitalists in centuries past as a 20 hour work week is to capitalists today. There is no argument that can be levied against working less in the 21st century that was not levied against working less in the 19th century. Those arguments failed then, and, in time, they will fail again.”

+++

Yes. France has the 35 hr work week and everyone takes August off to go to the beach.
Its almost impossible to fire anyone and the unions sit on the Board of directors in any company over 100 staff…
I guess thats why companies are all leaving and no one wants to hire young kids there.

Not to worry.
The socialists in power in Communist Canada are creating universal childcare and giving away free billions to those sloths that arent working in this job crazy market.
What could possibly go wrong?

China is eating our lunch and when they eventually take over…
They will have a special place on the bottle cap twister assembly line for the 20 hr a week cadres like you.
Twist faster comrade….

#105 BC is Drowning! on 11.16.21 at 8:06 am

And who cares?

That’s what happens when you elect glorious socialist comrades, people.

#106 ez$ on 11.16.21 at 8:17 am

“Snowwashing”. Estimated 47 billion laundered in Canada in 2018 alone. Much of that through real estate. Certainly enough to wildly distort home prices.

“Wilfull blindness” on the part of our leaders. Nothing changes til they address it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5142537

#107 IHCTD9 on 11.16.21 at 8:40 am

#95 SunShowers on 11.16.21 at 12:02 am

But if you think the working conditions of the past were acceptable simply because some workers weren’t particularly bothered by them, then I would question… / *snip*
_____

3rd (and final) time:

You asserted the workers weren’t happy to do the work. I told you plenty were.

That’s it, nothing else.

I repeat: That’s it, nothing else.

#108 The Bait on 11.16.21 at 8:49 am

#97 Nonplused

It’s not so hard to understand really. And smart people have explained it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHhUo2CZ-lM

=-=-=-=-=-=

Nonplused, interesting.

This is a debate that could be had, but at the same time, in this case, I’m not sure NYC and SF are ideal examples, because of the fact that those two cities are defined by strict land limitations. At the end of the day, there is only so much density and population possible in such a scenario.

I think this video potentially features very select data points to support an argument.

#109 Doug Ford on 11.16.21 at 8:52 am

DELETED

#110 Dharma Bum on 11.16.21 at 8:58 am

If you just wait long enough, Toronto houses will be cheaper.

Also:

Good people go to heaven.

The government will help you.

Nigerian princes want to share their wealth with you.

Oil will be obsolete soon and renewable energy sources are just around the corner.

There is a climate emergency.

The economy will balance itself.

WFH is here to stay.

Gender is a construct.

Free speech exists.

There are human rights worldwide.

Lightning never strikes twice.

Dream On. Dream On. Dream On. Dream on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syCAX4HcZBU

#111 IHCTD9 on 11.16.21 at 9:05 am

#23 kommykim on 11.15.21 at 5:03 pm

We won’t see 1981 interest rates any time soon, but we really don’t need to… Just going to 7-9% would throw an equivalent amount of water on the red hot RE market as 21% in the 80’s did.
___

I’d wager even if prices just stagnate it will put a lot of stress on the market.

So many have reached to the extreme to buy a house as the expectation was 99.9% that it will only go up in value and save them. Many LL’s are cashflow negative on their investment properties, but as long as appreciation keeps going, they can still expect a return upon sale. So much of our current RE activity absolutely requires appreciation, if not, there would be no reason to buy for 50%+ of buyers.

IMHO, a lot of folks (recent buyers and amateur LL’s) are literally being made whole by appreciation, it’s the only thing their dirt has going for it. So if prices stagnate, the investment instantly becomes a liability. Then it’s just a matter of how long the LL wants to continue subsidizing his tenants while the apartment gains nothing in value. Or how long a homeowner who is living a life of misery paying the monthly will carry on – after realizing it is now all for naught.

#112 Immigrant man on 11.16.21 at 9:17 am

#110 Dharma Bum on 11.16.21 at 8:58 am
If you just wait long enough, Toronto houses will be cheaper.
——————
Obviously it would take something catastrophic to do that. But catastrophes do happen. That list of things might actually expedite that.

On a side note: I once asked my Nigerian colleague about this “prince thing”. He says many people call themselves a prince in Nigeria. Like if you are a son of a wealthy politician – prince. Son of regional-scale oligarch – prince and so on.

#113 So...CIA List? on 11.16.21 at 9:33 am

#105 BC is Drowning! on 11.16.21 at 8:06 am
And who cares?

That’s what happens when you elect glorious socialist comrades, people.

….
Socialist comrades “make it rain”?

#114 SunShowers on 11.16.21 at 10:46 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz
There’s always a boogeyman that capitalists use to try to scare workers into submission. If it’s not China it’s Russia, if it’s not Russia it’s the Yanks, if it’s not the Yanks it’s the Germans, if it’s not the Germans it’s the Brits.

It’s all made up. It always has been.

#107 IHCTD9
So all of this is about you taking issue with a technicality (we both agree that some 19th century workers/slaves liked their working conditions, you just think…more did?) of a technicality (the question of whether or not some 19th century workers/slaves liking their working conditions meaningfully changes the fact that those working conditions were inhumane. Hint: It doesn’t)?

Ok…?

#115 Satori on 11.16.21 at 10:48 am

IDHTC – will real estate prices ever tank?? I have been saying that for years and now during covid this happens!! WTH!!!??

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 10:55 am

#104 CEF

Yes. France has the 35 hr work week and everyone takes August off to go to the beach.
Its almost impossible to fire anyone and the unions sit on the Board of directors in any company over 100 staff…
I guess thats why companies are all leaving and no one wants to hire young kids there.
—————————
The Great Generalizer strikes again.
The situation is pretty much the same in Germany and Austria.
Not heard of many companies leaving, and “young kids” are climbing up the social ladder.

#117 James on 11.16.21 at 10:57 am

#110 Dharma Bum on 11.16.21 at 8:58 am

If you just wait long enough, Toronto houses will be cheaper.

Also:

Good people go to heaven.

The government will help you.

Nigerian princes want to share their wealth with you.

Oil will be obsolete soon and renewable energy sources are just around the corner.

There is a climate emergency.

The economy will balance itself.

WFH is here to stay.

Gender is a construct.

Free speech exists.

There are human rights worldwide.

Lightning never strikes twice.

Dream On. Dream On. Dream On. Dream on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syCAX4HcZBU
___________________________________________

just one question where do you get your cannabis?

#118 James on 11.16.21 at 11:00 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.21 at 7:34 am

@#95 Sunshowers
“A 40 hour work week was as unconscionable to capitalists in centuries past as a 20 hour work week is to capitalists today. There is no argument that can be levied against working less in the 21st century that was not levied against working less in the 19th century. Those arguments failed then, and, in time, they will fail again.”

+++

Yes. France has the 35 hr work week and everyone takes August off to go to the beach.
Its almost impossible to fire anyone and the unions sit on the Board of directors in any company over 100 staff…
I guess thats why companies are all leaving and no one wants to hire young kids there.

Not to worry.
The socialists in power in Communist Canada are creating universal childcare and giving away free billions to those sloths that arent working in this job crazy market.
What could possibly go wrong?

China is eating our lunch and when they eventually take over…
They will have a special place on the bottle cap twister assembly line for the 20 hr a week cadres like you.
Twist faster comrade….
__________________________________________
And the sad part is comrade Trudeau will be the chief bottle cap quality person.

#119 Satori on 11.16.21 at 11:07 am

NASTRODAMUS
Cash is King, just was wondering about that last week.

All of my ‘cashless’ friends are living in 5 bedroom homes, driving Teslas and living the life of lux…. I am starting to think that I missed the ‘credit is King’ memo…cause they sure are living like Kings.

Here’s to hoping you are right.

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 11:07 am

#113 So…CIA List? on 11.16.21 at 9:33 am
#105 BC is Drowning! on 11.16.21 at 8:06 am
And who cares?

That’s what happens when you elect glorious socialist comrades, people.

….
Socialist comrades “make it rain”?
———————————
Yep.
And glorious sunshine today.
They are omni potent.
That’s why you should vote for them.
Get well soon, Comrade Horgan.

#121 rolldaddy of surrey on 11.16.21 at 11:13 am

# sunshowers 95
What makes you think that I am unfamiliar with past conversations? Another of your unfounded assumptions?
When you base your ideological theories on resentment and envy, your credibility will surely come into question.
For the record, EVERYTHING that you have and enjoy today is the direct result of CAPITALISM. Not sure why that is not accepted.
Socialism is one of the most discredited theories of all time, and clamoring for more rules and controls by the anointed will only lead to more failures. The body count is epic, and somehow, you chose to ignore the failures of history.
Society is made up of “makers” and “takers” and you are clearly aligned with the latter. There is no honour or dignity in that allegiance.
Someone once told me that calling someone a fool because he does not share your opinion is foolish in itself.

#122 Dr V on 11.16.21 at 11:28 am

97 nonplused 108 Bait

The demographia reports have become more condensed.

But they havent changed their reasoning. “Urban
containment” remains the problem.

In the grand scheme though. I cant offer a simple solution.

http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf

#123 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 11:32 am

I go to go comics political cartoons every couple of weeks, Clay Bennet is the best imo.

Matt Wuerker has one a four panel cartoon there;
1st panel: NRA guy on TV saying Carter and the dems are coming for your guns, while the young man viewer sits with a rifle
2nd panel: NRA guy on TV saying Clinton and the dems coming for your guns, while a slightly older guy cradles an assult rifle
3rd panel: NRA guy on TV, saying Obama and the dems coming for your guns, while a middle age guy holds a machine gun
4th panel: NRA guy on TV saying, Biden and the dems coming for your guns while a geezer sits under a howitzer.

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 12:08 pm

#123 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 11:32 am
I go to go comics political cartoons every couple of weeks, Clay Bennet is the best imo.

Matt Wuerker has one a four panel cartoon there;
1st panel: NRA guy on TV saying Carter and the dems are coming for your guns, while the young man viewer sits with a rifle
2nd panel: NRA guy on TV saying Clinton and the dems coming for your guns, while a slightly older guy cradles an assult rifle
3rd panel: NRA guy on TV, saying Obama and the dems coming for your guns, while a middle age guy holds a machine gun
4th panel: NRA guy on TV saying, Biden and the dems coming for your guns while a geezer sits under a howitzer.
————————
Great.
When Trump is back.
The old geezer will drive a rocket launcher down Pensilvania Avenue, and police will clear the street for him and offer him a water bottle.

#125 Sail Away on 11.16.21 at 12:21 pm

#123 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 11:32 am

Re: guns US

——-

Heck, gun manufacturer Olin Corporation (OLN) stock is +200% in the last 52 weeks.

Something sure has spooked Americans into buying lots of guns in the last year.

#126 Immigrant man on 11.16.21 at 12:42 pm

#114 SunShowers on 11.16.21 at 10:46 am
There’s always a boogeyman that capitalists use to try to scare workers into submission. If it’s not China it’s Russia,
———–
Funny, cuz in the aforementioned examples they also use a boogeman capitalist/west. But they also kill you if you get out of line. You have it pretty good here guys, you have no idea. Thanks to free markets and freedom of choice. My 0.05.

#127 IHCTD9 on 11.16.21 at 12:47 pm

#115 Satori on 11.16.21 at 10:48 am
IDHTC – will real estate prices ever tank?? I have been saying that for years and now during covid this happens!! WTH!!!??
___

Go back 2+ years and read my posts here. You’ll find me laughing at the big city folks who complained about RE prices. I said come out here to the sticks and live the good life! Median HH Incomes not much less than in Toronto, and a decent house is 350K, an awesome house with acres is 600K!!!

Then in 2020 they did! Now a junker is 350K, and a decent house is 600K…

Nothing is going down until rates go up, and stay up; for at least 10 years. RE humpers need their faith shook. Outside of of that, some kind of job destroying SHTF event that government can’t remedy will need to take place.

#128 DER on 11.16.21 at 12:55 pm

It seems to me that the short term fix for inflated real estate prices and lack of supply is to raise interest rates faster…it should have started gradually about 9 months back. With higher rates property owners, especially “investor” type owners, will say ‘we must sell now or two things will happen; one, we will get less and two, it may not sell due to too much competition. When this sense of urgency hits the supply will immediately increase and prices will soften.
There are many Canadians who hold more than one property and this is where the “frozen supply” lies so this is the only immediate supply fix available to the market.
I live in Victoria and you cannot imagine the impediments to new building in this City. The regulatory process is so extensive ,time consuming and costly that there are many projects still going through the system after 5 years. The size of the Planning dept and the steps required in order to get to the actual building construction for a City of 100K far exceeds anywhere else in the Country. New construction supply cannot stop this current insanity; only interest rate hikes can do that.

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.21 at 1:18 pm

#125 Sail Away on 11.16.21 at 12:21 pm
#123 Wrk.dover on 11.16.21 at 11:32 am

Re: guns US

——-

Heck, gun manufacturer Olin Corporation (OLN) stock is +200% in the last 52 weeks.

Something sure has spooked Americans into buying lots of guns in the last year.
————–
Sure, scaredy cats, the Amis.
Always check under the bed before bedtime.
Might be a Antifa terrorist under it.

#130 cramar on 11.16.21 at 10:45 pm

Speaking of job openings. In the U.S. with Biden’s $1.2T Infrastructure Bill & likely some form of Social Spending Bill eventually, these are going to create millions of jobs. With a major shortfall of workers now without these spending bills, exactly who is going to fill all these vacancies? Major wage inflation will add to the current inflationary problems. This is not going to go away. If people could see three to five years in the future, they might be shocked at what the inflation rate is going to be. How are people going to pay for basic necessities when they cannot even make ends meet now?