It’s over

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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Covid’s over. Like Vince-Carter’s-third-dunk-at-the-2000-NBA-Slam-Dunk-Contest over.

Naturally, the media doesn’t want you to think so. Fear sells, so witness this recent headline:

Media still capitalizing on Covid

Source: Time

A fifth wave, if it happens, would be unpleasant, but Covid’s ability to meaningfully affect economies and markets at this point has been almost completely hobbled.

First, look at the dramatic acceleration of vaccine doses administered globally. The world’s gone from less than 5% fully or partially vaccinated at the end of Q1 2021 to 51% fully or partially vaccinated presently (Source: Our World in Data, to November 7, 2021). Work obviously still needs to done, but the momentum is staggering. Most developed countries already have vaccination rates in the 70% range with Canada amongst the world leaders at 80%.

Further, for the world’s largest economy, the US, it’s virtually certain that lockdowns will never again be the strategy for dealing with outbreaks. Joe Biden has made it clear that the emphasis will be on vaccine mandates instead. Mandates aggravate the minority, including self-pitying Green Bay Packer quarterbacks and their indignant Hollywood-actress fiancées, but they actually assist the economic recovery longer term.

And it’s not just vaccines that are in play now. Antiviral pills are also emerging. Pfizer’s Paxlovid, for example, cuts the risk of hospitalization or death from the virus by 89%. It’s so effective, in fact, that Pfizer immediately stopped its trial and went straight to the regulatory approval stage. Talk about a pharmaceutical drop-the-mic moment. Merck meanwhile has had similar success with its antiviral pill, Molnupiravir, and it’s already received regulatory approval in the UK.

Second, key economic data suggests that developed economies are either fully recovered from the pandemic or will be shortly. US ISM manufacturing data, as but one example, has averaged 60.5 over the past 12 months. Anything above 50 signals an expansion of the manufacturing sector, which accounts for a substantial 12% of the US economy. 55 is a solid number. Averaging 60.5? Otherworldly.

Labour markets too are firing on all cylinders. Canada’s employment has fully recovered to pre-Covid levels and the US will be there shortly. The US unemployment rate, which hit a high of almost 15% during the Covid peak is now well below 5%. Emergency unemployment benefits for a large number of Americans also expired in September and this will further improve the employment picture as these individuals will now be forced to look for work with no shortage of employers seeking to hire them. Is it any wonder that the IMF expects the US economy to grow 6.0% this year and 5.2% in 2022?

Third, corporate earnings have been lights out. Consensus expectations when the US Q3 earnings season began a few weeks ago were for about 25% y-o-y earnings growth. Last check, companies were humming along at 40% growth. In fact, y-o-y earnings growth over each of the past two quarters has been better than 50% (with close to 100% growth coming in the second quarter). Whatever Covid overhang that may have existed for corporate earnings a year ago has now been entirely shrugged off.

Finally, use your eyes. Are hockey and basketball arenas not full? Football stadiums? Are live concerts not resuming in your city? The Rolling Stones sold out LA’s massive SoFi Stadium last month on back-to-back nights. Even Canada’s back in the swing—one of our staff attended country-music star Eric Church’s concert at Rogers Arena two weeks ago. It marked the venue’s first sold-out show in almost two years. And just last week, the NYC Marathon was run in-person for the first time since 2019 with 33,000 participants.

Below are the expectations for the global live sporting and music markets post-Covid. Neil Young was right, rock and roll can never die:

Global live sports revenue (US$ millions

Global live music market (US$ billions)

Source: Harvest Exchange Traded Funds

And perhaps the best recent proof that Covid’s over? Peloton stock has plunged about 45% over the past week on a weak subscriber growth forecast.

Face it, the world’s returning to normal.

And Peloton bikes, all the rage during the pandemic, are already becoming laundry racks.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

101 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.21 at 8:57 am

Inflation….heeerrrrreeee we come!

Great synopsis Doug.

#2 FriedEggs on 11.13.21 at 9:12 am

‘Take four red capsules. In 10 minutes take two more. Help is on the way. If you feel you are not properly sedated, call 348-844 immediately. Failure to do so may result in prosecution for criminal drug evasion.’ -Medicine Cabinet, THX-1138

#3 Habitt on 11.13.21 at 9:31 am

Thanks for the positive post Doug. Inflation is worrying for many. How do you see it unfolding? Have a good weekend sir.

#4 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 9:36 am

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.21 at 9:16 pm
#66 Faron on 11.12.21 at 7:41 pm
#54 Sail Away on 11.12.21 at 6:58 pm

What is your idea of responsible [firearm] carry?

——–

Anyone who can spell “self defense” with not more than 2 spelling errors.

——–

Well. Appropriately:

There is a fully-documented Wisconsin event that demonstrates the way proper and prudent weapon handling can save a law-abiding citizen’s life when attacked by a psychotically violent leftist mob. Let’s go with that example.

#5 AM in MN on 11.13.21 at 9:44 am

You haven’t tried crossing the border!

It will be over when we the government lets us be free to get back to our lives, which we are a long way from.

#6 Big Pharma Runs the World, Not Government on 11.13.21 at 9:48 am

PS – Pfizer’s pill worked so well because they took the ingredients of a cheap, unbranded medication already being used (think India, when people were apparently piled up dying on the streets and suddenly crickets after implementing a pill).

Now they marked it up 100x in price and voila…Big Pharma wins again!

#7 the Jaguar on 11.13.21 at 10:06 am

Mr. Rowat,

Are the growth figures and estimates based on a start point of flat line Covid ( when the world stopped), or on pre-Covid numbers?

And yes, while the current generation likes to dismiss all things Boomer, the Rolling Stones can still sell out a venue. (Beast of Burden is my favourite Stones tune).

+++

@#91 Do we have all the facts on 11.13.21 at 7:33 am

‘What I don’t understand is why the “Forward for Everyone” platform of the Liberal Party provides no clear strategy to expand the Canadian Economy.’ —–

Their strategy is immigration. Big numbers. Requires a lot of construction and consumer purchases. Save for the Atlantic ocean we’d be the Polish border.

#8 the Jaguar on 11.13.21 at 10:21 am

Snippett NP:

“Canada’s housing market is unhinged from reality, and low interest rates — even the global pandemic — are only partially to blame, says a North American economist who expects a reckoning soon.

Yet what alarms David Doyle, head of North American Strategy & Economics at Macquarie Group, a global financial services organization, is how out of sync Canadian housing prices are with other important factors — such as income and people’s ability to pay for their high-priced homes in the years ahead.
“Prices are totally disconnected from the fundamentals,” says Doyle.He says there’s a psychology at play in Canada that housing prices can only go in one direction: up. “This is an idea that feeds upon itself,” says Doyle.

His concern is what happens into 2023 and beyond, once interest rates start climbing. People who bought homes at market peaks in 2019-2020 will then be facing mortgage renewals at higher rates.

“By 2023, things start to get iffy. I’m more concerned after 2024, at that point the Bank of Canada will be hiking rates and housing will be impacted.”

Currently, more than 10 per cent of Canada’s GDP is derived from residential real estate activity: renovations, ownership transfer costs and real estate commissions.
“That’s way too large and unsustainable. It distorts the economy,” Doyle says.

#9 Yukon Elvis on 11.13.21 at 10:39 am

The Bank of Canada is likely to add labour-market conditions to its inflation mandate in coming weeks, a move that could mean a slower interest rate-hike trajectory, according to one major Canadian bank.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said Friday that he expects to see new language around the idea that achieving the central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target sustainably requires an economy near full employment.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cibc-sees-bank-of-canada-taking-half-step-toward-dual-mandate-1.1681056

#10 It works on 11.13.21 at 10:53 am

If you dig for science and data you will discover that what’s happening is exactly what should be happening. There is some excellent material by leading doctors and scientists available. In short, the pandemic will continue until at least year end 2024 based on expert testimony.

#11 mark on 11.13.21 at 10:56 am

Not true at all, its not normal.

#12 VicPaul on 11.13.21 at 10:57 am

Good style, Doug!
You’ve written a compelling, substantiated argument for optimism (nice change from msm), taken a well-earned swipe at said msm, and punctuated it with an ever-lasting quote from one of Canada’s defining musical artists – and the weekend just started!
Smellin’ the coffee and the roses…nice!

M57BC

#13 Oakville Rocks! on 11.13.21 at 10:58 am

GOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

Excellent Saturday post Doug.

Love how you worked Aaron Rodgers and his fiance in. But wait, no love for Kyrie?

And how about those 50000 Albertans who showed up to cheer Canada to a 1 – 0 victory over Costa Rica in balmy Edmonton last night. Lets do it again on Tuesday

Lastly, how can you overlook blog favorite Drake who just opened a 2500 capacity nightclub, HISTORY, in the Six last Sunday.

Who knows, maybe Toronto will be ready for that parade this coming spring / summer.

GO LEAFS!

#14 TurnerNation on 11.13.21 at 11:01 am

#36 Dolce Vita on 11.12.21 at 5:53 pm
He’s a what? Are they worse/better than the current Tyrants running this world?

France: “OVER 65 YEARS: THE HEALTH PASS DEACTIVATED “6 MONTHS AND 5 WEEKS” AFTER THE SECOND DOSE”
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/plus-de-65-ans-le-pass-sanitaire-desactive-6-mois-et-5-semaines-apres-la-deuxieme-dose_AN-202111100133.html


–On the Economic Shutdowns. Almost over, the Green pass must be working. This is a permanent shut down into 2025.

.Europe becomes COVID-19’s epicentre again, some countries look at fresh curb(reuters.com)

https://mobile.twitter.com/CTV_PowerPlay/status/1459292798482530313
5:51 PM · Nov 12, 2021
“Dr. Peter Juni says the goal now is to flatten the curve in the next two weeks.”



#17 Dolce Vita on 11.12.21 at 4:41 pm – your map shows exactly the point.
CV is being used to bring down the FIRST World countries. Check that map you posted perfectly illustrating.
https://imgur.com/0ruJIOx

How can the poor countries on that map be so free and healthy.
Even the Indian errr I mean ‘Delta variant’ is not even hitting the charts in…India. Daily new cases flatlined long time ago https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

#15 mike from mtl on 11.13.21 at 11:18 am

“Mission Accomplished” -George W. Bush May 1, 2003.

#16 Tux on 11.13.21 at 11:19 am

Greetings from Austria, where Covid is definitely not over.

#17 Wrk.dover on 11.13.21 at 11:22 am

Country music has stars?

This blog teaches me many new things!

#18 Scott in Gibsons on 11.13.21 at 11:35 am

“Mandates aggravate the minority,………, but they actually assist the economic recovery longer term.”

-Mandates that depend on repeated vaccination to stay compliant are a problem. How many shots are people wiling to take? A large percentage of those declining the treatment are near retirement and will take years of experience and knowledge with them. Others have transferable skill that their existing employers will lose. How does this “assist the economic recovery long term”? Also public event attendance will only recover if the mandates are cancelled, I pray that our rulers will be generous enough to grant us these small freedoms.

“Antiviral pills are also emerging. Pfizer’s Paxlovid, for example, cuts the risk of hospitalization or death from the virus by 89%.”

-Nice to see that Pfizermectin will finally be approved to treat Covid patients. If only Pharma had found a way to profit from this decades old mechanism earlier; so many lives would have been saved.

#19 earthbondmisfit on 11.13.21 at 11:52 am

I hope you’re right but I fear you’re not, stats and charts notwithstanding.

#20 Faron on 11.13.21 at 12:00 pm

#4 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 9:36 am

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.21 at 9:16 pm
#66 Faron on 11.12.21 at 7:41 pm
#54 Sail Away on 11.12.21 at 6:58 pm

Oops. I always thought legal was part of responsible. But I guess that is just a technicality? Maybe only applies to some people? Or is this one of your ethics and the law conversations?

#21 Janice Beck on 11.13.21 at 12:04 pm

And yet the Financial Post just ran an article about Toronto’s financial district being a ghost town. Strange diversion with the economy roaring back to pre-covid levels.

The political media has its own recovery agenda, and with Trudeaus numbers worse than ever, with inflation soaring, heating prices ditto, costs of everything stratospheric according to people who eat , real estate unbearable, borrowing and debt at historic levels and another failure to impress at COP there’s little wonder why I’m feeling warm smoke blowing around in my colon.

#22 Faron on 11.13.21 at 12:04 pm

#17 Wrk.dover on 11.13.21 at 11:22 am

Country music has stars?

This blog teaches me many new things!

Wrk.dover, you know better! Dolly Parton — she’s been doing some cool stuff with her fortune.

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.21 at 12:10 pm

#13 Oatville Rocker
And how about those 50000 Albertans who showed up to cheer Canada to a 1 – 0 victory over Costa Rica in balmy Edmonton last night. Lets do it again on Tuesday
————————
One day after Remembrance Day, lots of flags at the game.
Almost there, going to Quatar.
Edmontonians love their Alphonso Davies.
In Canadian soccer, Black Lives Matter.
Go Canadada Go.

#24 Bad actor on 11.13.21 at 12:14 pm

#4 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 9:36 am
#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.21 at 9:16 pm
#66 Faron on 11.12.21 at 7:41 pm
#54 Sail Away on 11.12.21

Well. Appropriately:

There is a fully-documented Wisconsin event that demonstrates the way proper and prudent weapon handling can save a law-abiding citizen’s life when attacked by a psychotically violent leftist mob. Let’s go with that example.
….
Ugh, Rittenhouse’s ‘testimony’ was painful to watch. Big crocodile tears. Who was his acting coach? Kevin Sorbo?

#25 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.21 at 12:17 pm

#16 Tux on 11.13.21 at 11:19 am
Greetings from Austria, where Covid is definitely not over.
————————
Yep,
Same for Germany.
Both Countries have no elected Leadership right now.
And it shows.
Canada is in great shape now, thanks to competent leadership, and a compliant populace.
CEF, your turn.

#26 Linda on 11.13.21 at 12:17 pm

#18 ‘Scott’ – the true question is whether your plethora of highly skilled, near to retirement individuals will be able to actually retire. Given the stats on debt, lack of pensions or retirement savings in general plus the fact that many of your older individuals are still supporting their children financially I’d say retirement isn’t going to happen for quite some time if ever.

As for shots people are willing to take, lots of folks take the annual influenza shot. Plus if there are going to be safe, effective pill(s) for Covid seems likely that most will simply pop a pill – no worries about a shot necessary.

#27 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 11.13.21 at 12:18 pm

A side-effect of the so-called “fifth wave” will be society’s eyes collectively rolling back into their heads! I wonder what will be the fear topic du jour in 2022? Back to 5G towers & tinfoil headgear?

#28 Shawn Allen on 11.13.21 at 12:28 pm

But are Corporate Earnings Sustainable

Doug, I’m glad you brought up the topic if higher corporate earnings because I wanted to ask you about the the level of S&P 500 earnings. You note the huge growth in corporate earnings. And Garth predicted this rebound at least a year ago as I recall. But I’m concerned that the S&P 500 earnings are way above trend and whether that is sustainable.

You said:

“Third, corporate earnings have been lights out. Consensus expectations when the US Q3 earnings season began a few weeks ago were for about 25% y-o-y earnings growth. Last check, companies were humming along at 40% growth. In fact, y-o-y earnings growth over each of the past two quarters has been better than 50% (with close to 100% growth coming in the second quarter). Whatever Covid overhang that may have existed for corporate earnings a year ago has now been entirely shrugged off.”

Doug, am I wrong to be concerned about the S&P 500 earnings being so far above the trend line? Yesterday I wrote to some people as follows:

The most concerning indication of valuation is that the earnings on the S&P 500 have jumped up way beyond the trend line. For 2019 the earnings were $139. That level of earnings was at the high end of the trend line but that may have been largely explained by a large income tax cut that President Trump made in 2018. In 2020 earnings declined with the pandemic shutdowns. But in 2021 the trailing year earnings have soared to $176 and are expected to reach $192 for the full year.
Those earnings are WAY above the trend line. But analysts expect the growth to continue. If the earnings were to return to the trend line in 2022 they would be closer to $160 as opposed to the forecast $208. In other words, if earnings return to the trend line then the S&P 500 index is substantially over-valued.

And if the S&P 500 earnings are going to come in at say $208 in 2022 versus $139 in 2019 (which was already at the top end of the trend line) then “someone” should be asking why corporate earnings are soaring. Is it because so many large companies now have monopoly power? Has the share of revenue going to profits grown at the expense of the share going to labour and to taxes?

Investors may only be interested in whether the above trend earnings can continue. But others may be interested in the fairness of it.

#29 Sandra on 11.13.21 at 12:30 pm

If it was back to normal, 3-7 year GIC rates would not be still below 3%. In 2019, 1 year supposedly before the pandemic, 3.45% to 3.75% GIC rates for at least 15 to 20 different financial institutions were available.

#30 Rudy on 11.13.21 at 12:46 pm

This is just such self-serving wishful thinking, Doug.

Ontario cases are surging ahead as we speak today.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-reports-661-new-covid-19-infections-6-more-deaths-1.566492

Considering the weather is strangely warm and people are not fully indoors yet, then this looks even worse ahead.

And dog knows what else may be right ahead, from climate issues to war with Taiwan and China etc…

Mike nailed it:

#15 mike from mtl on 11.13.21 at 11:18 am
“Mission Accomplished” -George W. Bush May 1, 2003.

i.e. lots more trouble ahead………

#31 Dogman01 on 11.13.21 at 12:49 pm

#18 Scott in Gibsons on 11.13.21 at 11:35 am

A large percentage of those declining the treatment are near retirement and will take years of experience and knowledge with them. Others have transferable skill that their existing employers will lose. How does this “assist the economic recovery long term”?

———————————–

Interesting observation Scott; I was thinking about this but I have a different angle; Perhaps like “Creative Destruction” all this churn in employers might be positive.
– Wages can be re-thought by employers as a dynamic market, rather then lethargic HR pay scales; pay for the best, allow WFH, it becomes a market again.
– Many employees are stagnant and it would be best for everyone, them and their employers if they move on. Many get into a Burnout phase, often better for them and the employers that change occurs, “A Change is as Good as a Rest”
– Many Bosses suck so bad, it is good that staff leave them and perhaps these “terrible” bosses can be identified as problems.
– As for retirement, the young desperately need wage demand and good powerful jobs to fill. Most employers can replace people and if they need you they will offer some consulting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBJN0StppnM

What we need is strong wage pressure. Low unemployment and a capricious labour force that needs to be “attracted”, might help our declining standard of living.

Like the velocity of money a velocity of staff “churn” can be good.

#32 Doug Rowat on 11.13.21 at 12:51 pm

#5 AM in MN on 11.13.21 at 9:44 am
You haven’t tried crossing the border!

It will be over when we the government lets us be free to get back to our lives, which we are a long way from.

—-

I’m not talking about your personal convenience, I’m talking about markets and the economy, which have been doing fine.

—Doug

#33 Doug Rowat on 11.13.21 at 12:57 pm

#3 Habitt on 11.13.21 at 9:31 am
Thanks for the positive post Doug. Inflation is worrying for many. How do you see it unfolding? Have a good weekend sir.

—-

A moderation in the new year (with higher interest rates). A well-diversified and balanced portfolio should hedge against the risk of both.

—Doug

#34 TurnerNation on 11.13.21 at 1:15 pm

Prediction, CV will no ‘be over’ – in the Former First World Countries – until 2025. There’s just so much to be changed.
It’s been said that everything now being used to control us, our minds is imaginary.
You cannot see it! But it’s there. Always lurking. Ready to strike.

Is it t3rrorists? Nope. That threat no longer works on us. With our Charter rights suspended since March 2020 how could it? Now scan your QR code for government permission – to literally, walk and sit down.

(Little look back at history. Reason the entire globe must remove shoes at airport security is that one, single news story. The reason the entire globe no longer may bring large liquids on board…is a single news story. See how easy this is for our global rulers?)

So, what unseen things are being used to reshape our former first world country, and cement unlimited government power – in real life and online?

1. CV. Need I say more.

2. Racism. Yep our PM declared this place Racist. But immigrants love us. Because we are not.

3. Climate. That’s right guys in the next few years we will band together to LOWER the temperature in Lytton BC. I know you can do it.
What about hospital capacity – seeing as they tore down those field hospitals in Toronto, Hamilton. And Vancouver.
Are you NUTS? We cannot increase hospital capacity. It would mean hiring, training people. We just cannot do that.
As per UN edict all taxpayer money and debt must be spend on “Climate action”.
My message to the town of Lytton, hang in there! A few more years, more carbon taxes and we are coming for you. Get set to enjoy your new colder temperatures. Climate action works – as per T2. Else why else would the be doing it? De-carbonising and winding own our economy.

#35 Bizarro World on 11.13.21 at 1:24 pm

What about those germaphobes we created?

What about all those variants cooking up in South America and American Deer?

What about the breakthroughs?

In sick of this sheet too, but you know what they say?

Don’t count your chickens. There are a lot of serious issues to be sorted out.

#36 I'mshort_corpdebt on 11.13.21 at 1:34 pm

Nondemic is over because it never really started.
How can a virus that kills less than 0.15% of population be considered a pandemic?

Now let’s talk about fun stuff like the implosion of Zillow.
How do SPACs cause massive dislocation in the real estate sector? What are regulators doing about these dislocations in manipulated markets?

#37 Sydneysider on 11.13.21 at 2:14 pm

I agree that it is time to get on with life.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/11/12/its-time-to-put-covid-behind-us/

However, covid is here to stay and will take its toll. In a Burnaby care home, the press reports some 15 out of about 90 inmates have died since September (all fully vaxxed, all under mask mandate for more than a year).

In the UK, 99.995% of children and young who showed a positive SARS-CoV-2 test in the first pandemic year survived.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01578-1

It seems that society still needs to think carefully about its treatment of older people, but the social isolation imposed on young people last year was a major blunder and should never again happen.

#38 Gravy Train on 11.13.21 at 2:15 pm

#4 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 9:36 am
“[…] when attacked by a psychotically violent […].” Psychotics are generally harmless. It’s the psychopaths one has to worry about.

For a wonderful explanation of ‘the biology of humans at our best and worst,’ see Robert M. Sapolsky’s book Behave. :)

#39 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 2:17 pm

#20 Faron on 11.13.21 at 12:00 pm
#4 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 9:36 am

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.21 at 9:16 pm
#66 Faron on 11.12.21 at 7:41 pm
#54 Sail Away on 11.12.21 at 6:58 pm

Oops. I always thought legal was part of responsible. But I guess that is just a technicality? Maybe only applies to some people? Or is this one of your ethics and the law conversations?

——–

Correct, legal is good. As was fully the case here. I understand from past discussions that certain subsets sometimes accept falsely biased news as true, though. Suggest you watch the trial for, you know, true facts.

#40 Don Guillermo on 11.13.21 at 2:42 pm

#7 the Jaguar on 11.13.21 at 10:06 am

And yes, while the current generation likes to dismiss all things Boomer, the Rolling Stones can still sell out a venue. (Beast of Burden is my favourite Stones tune)
*****************************************
Beast of Burden is one of my faves as well Jag.

I saw the Stones in Vancouver in the 70’s and again in Istanbul in 1998. During the summer of ’98 I was working on a Power Generating project 1 1/2 hours west of Istanbul when I heard Athens and Istanbul were late additions to the Bridge Over Babylon tour. In mid September our group, the Commissioning & Start-Up team, organized a bus to take us into the Ali Sami Yen Stadium for the show. We had a few younger Brits on our team and they joked that only their parents listened to the Stones but decided to come anyways. Part way through the show “Start Me Up” came on loud and clear. I looked over at the youngsters and they were just beaming, bouncing up and down yelling and cheering. We all laughed and had a great evening. Ever since “Start Me Up” gives me goose bumps.

#41 Doug Rowat on 11.13.21 at 2:46 pm

#27 Shawn Allen on 11.13.21 at 12:28 pm
But are Corporate Earnings Sustainable

Doug, am I wrong to be concerned about the S&P 500 earnings being so far above the trend line? Yesterday I wrote to some people as follows:

The most concerning indication of valuation is that the earnings on the S&P 500 have jumped up way beyond the trend line…

—-

Earnings/valuations can remain “expensive” for extended periods. But they also can’t be evaluated strictly against their own history but also must be evaluated against other asset classes. Government bonds, as one example, yield a paltry ~1.5%.

But if you think equity markets are imperfect (and they always are to some extent) then sell your equities.

—Doug

#42 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 3:06 pm

I don’t think the mayor of Bonavista being bisexual is anything special.

Most mayors I know are bisexual,at election time, at the very least.

Everyone is a potential target and they want to please both sexes…

M47BC

=========================

“Urbanites Flock to Atlantic Canada as Pandemic Blunts Cities’ Appeal.

As housing prices soar in big cities, the country’s eastern provinces are experiencing a surge in migration. Newcomers are being welcomed, but some locals are wary.

BONAVISTA, Newfoundland — Only a few years ago in Bonavista, a small and sleepy windswept fishing town in Newfoundland, dozens of pastel-colored heritage homes facing the sea sat dilapidated and empty.
The collapse of the cod industry had pushed about 1,000 residents to seek their fortunes in places like Texas, New York and oil-rich Alberta, about 4,000 miles away.

These days, however, so many migrants are arriving from across Canada — mostly young professionals from big cities like Toronto — that some local developers have a three-year waiting list for home buyers.

Sam Yuen, 40, a communications manager for a bank, who recently moved to Bonavista from Toronto with his partner, Derek McCallum, an architect, snapped up a three-bedroom, early-20th-century home for about $30,000. “We love the nature and the sense of belonging here,” Mr. Yuen said.

Until recently, Canada’s Atlantic provinces were suffering from so much outward migration that some towns started offering free land to lure workers. But as urban life across the world has been upended by the coronavirus, with lockdowns, shuttered bars and socially distanced gyms, the picturesque region is experiencing the largest inward migration in nearly 50 years.

Desperate to escape pandemic doldrums and soaring housing prices, and energized by a global shift to remote working, the newcomers are flocking to Atlantic Canada, where they have been largely welcomed. But in the distinctive coastal region — shaped by the traditional values of its Indigenous peoples and Irish, Scottish, English and French settlers — the migration of moneyed urbanites is also fanning some tensions.

Though housing prices remain low compared with bigger urban centers, in Bonavista, population 3,752, they are exploding, and some local residents bemoan the higher property taxes that come with them.

The social fabric of the town has also been changing. Traditional craft shops and restaurants offering fish and brewis, a starchy local dish of cod and bread, have been gradually giving way to designer sea salt companies and to purveyors of cumin kombucha and iceberg-infused soap.

Bonavista, influenced historically by its churches, now hosts a growing L.G.B.T.Q. community, including a bisexual mayor and a lesbian police chief, stoking some resentment among a minority about the town’s tilt toward social liberalism.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/13/world/canada/newfoundland-migrants.html

#43 Doug Rowat on 11.13.21 at 3:13 pm

#29 Rudy on 11.13.21 at 12:46 pm
This is just such self-serving wishful thinking, Doug.

Ontario cases are surging ahead as we speak today.

—-

Pointless local example. Do you own an Ontario-only portfolio?

—Doug

#44 Shawn Allen on 11.13.21 at 3:21 pm

What’s the chance of Virus death

#35 I’mshort_corpdebt on 11.13.21 at 1:34 pm

How can a virus that kills less than 0.15% of population be considered a pandemic?

*************************
If true, that’s a chance of death of 1 in 667. That’s of the whole population. If you actually get the virus, the chance of death in Canada has been 2% or 1 in 50.

Now are the people who scoff at a death chance of a mere 1 in 667 (let alone 1 in 50 if they get the virus) the same people who regularly buy lotto 649 with a chance of winning of 1 in 13,984,000?

And these unvaccinated dim wits probably think they have a higher chance of eventually winning the big one than dying from the virus.

If they buy one lottery ticket a week for 30 years their chances of winning are a lousy 1 in 8,964.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.21 at 3:31 pm

@#21 Jay Bee
“…little wonder why I’m feeling warm smoke blowing around in my colon.”

++++
Thats not smoke…
Or
You’re in Venezuela?

#46 Shawn Allen on 11.13.21 at 3:59 pm

But if you think equity markets are imperfect (and they always are to some extent) then sell your equities.

—Doug

**********************
Oh, but I only have the under-valued ones. And I have some safe stuff as well. I’ll be fine no matter what.

But absolutely, in the markets we pays our money and takes our chances. No guarantees ever.

Also I will get more enjoyment out of going on the record that the projected 2022 S&P earnings will come in lower than the $208 forecast. I’d bet on GAAP earnings in 2022 of $180 or less and that’s still above trend. I’d bet at least $5.00 on this.

Do take a look at the trend it might scare you.

#47 jimmy zhao on 11.13.21 at 4:19 pm

I’ve been at the grocery store. Food inflation is rampant. Plus wait till the dairy cartel price increases kick in. There will be lineups at the USA border for people shopping for cheese.

#48 neo on 11.13.21 at 4:28 pm

DELETED

#49 Wrk.dover on 11.13.21 at 5:01 pm

#41 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 3:06 pm
BONAVISTA, Newfoundland — Only a few years ago in Bonavista, a small and sleepy windswept fishing town in Newfoundland, dozens of pastel-colored heritage homes facing the sea sat dilapidated and empty.
_________________________________

One October afternoon we parked the rental in the lee of some tall warehouses and had lunch in the restaurant there. When we came back out, the windshield was salted beyond belief! And not one garage by any house in the entire community. This town is just to the NW of the NE corner of Nfld. Waves at the lighthouse were easily fifty feet tall. Just another autumn day.

#50 AM in MN on 11.13.21 at 5:05 pm

#32 Doug Rowat on 11.13.21 at 12:51 pm
#5 AM in MN on 11.13.21 at 9:44 am
You haven’t tried crossing the border!

It will be over when we the government lets us be free to get back to our lives, which we are a long way from.

—-

I’m not talking about your personal convenience, I’m talking about markets and the economy, which have been doing fine.

—Doug

—————————————————

As I’ve mentioned before, I think we’re riding a sugar high from the BoC printing C$500B and squirting it into a C$2T economy. Is the market really up if the numerator goes up (TSX) but the denominator (C$ money supply) goes up more?

Much like the happy days in the couple of years after Nixon went off the gold standard. It takes a few years for the inflation to kick in.

This is exacerbated by the squeezing of the energy industry to satisfy nut head political ideas like trying to change the weather.

Everything in the supply chain is affected by energy costs at every stage. Demand is driven by those with free cash (from direct payments to low interest loans), who want to consume but not produce. That only lasts for so long, and then the pain starts.

I expect waves of strikes in the years to come, then the government of the day either tightens the money supply (John Crow) or the country goes the way of South America.

The economy needs “real growth” and wealth creation. In today’s globalized world, a big part of the supply chain issues are solved by business people being able to travel efficiently and conduct business. Between that and energy production, inflation will only go up from here.

Canada can’t affect global prices, but it can get wealthy if the government sets policies to let the market produce what the world needs. So far, no evidence of that from the people living the free money party for now…

#51 Greta's Paradox on 11.13.21 at 5:44 pm

Well then on to the next problem. All this “growth” should give us a good idea how the world energy markets are doing.

#52 Sneaky on 11.13.21 at 5:46 pm

#9 Yukon Elvis

Ha ha ha!

Give it room to bubble further!

Like we didn’t know they would come up with a lever that “blocks” them from increasing?

Employment lever also is often over estimated, corrected, manipulated when needed – so that will give them lovely excuse to do as they please by spinning employment to need them using it for interest policy.

#53 XGRO and Chill on 11.13.21 at 5:58 pm

You are using graphs of future revenue to say that Covid is over now?

Not sure that’s how logic works, but ok.

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.21 at 6:13 pm

#47 jimmy zhao on 11.13.21 at 4:19 pm
I’ve been at the grocery store. Food inflation is rampant. Plus wait till the dairy cartel price increases kick in. There will be lineups at the USA border for people shopping for cheese.
—————
There’s been line-ups for cheese and milk at the borders since I remember.
These items are much cheaper in the States.
Never found it worth my time and gas to cross the border for just cheese and milk.
I’m about 80% vegetarian now.
Saw a report that claimed that vegetarians spent about 30% less on their monthly food bill.
Great on your wallet and your health.
Chewing carrots and celery is also good for your teeth.
Win-Win.

#55 Yukon Elvis on 11.13.21 at 6:23 pm

#40 Don Guillermo on 11.13.21 at 2:42 pm
#7 the Jaguar on 11.13.21 at 10:06 am

And yes, while the current generation likes to dismiss all things Boomer, the Rolling Stones can still sell out a venue. (Beast of Burden is my favourite Stones tune)
*****************************************
Beast of Burden is one of my faves as well Jag.

I saw the Stones in Vancouver in the 70’s and again in Istanbul in 1998.
++++++++++++++
I was at the Stones concert in ‘72 at the Pacific Coliseum. Didn’t have a ticket. Climbed up a tree near an open top floor window. It was a long ways up.Made a leap and caught the window sill, crawled in, went down the fire stairs and opened the door and let my buddies in. Security saw us and gave chase but we lost them in the crowd. Good concert. I was a hero for about a day and a half.

#56 Reality Check on 11.13.21 at 6:42 pm

I am currently on vacation in a sunny, hot southern country. Was here in 2019 just before the pandemic started. This year is nuts – not an empty seat on the plane, restaurants/bars are packed, people browsing trinket shops, beaches are as full as pre-Covid (never packed – that’s part of the reason to come here). Talking to some of the expats that live here – they say it the same or more busy than pre-Covid. So as Ryan points out, regardless of what the media says we are largely getting back to normal. At least for those of us that are double vaxxed.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.21 at 7:44 pm

#55 Yukon Elvis on 11.13.21 at 6:23 pm
#40 Don Guillermo on 11.13.21 at 2:42 pm
#7 the Jaguar on 11.13.21 at 10:06 am

And yes, while the current generation likes to dismiss all things Boomer, the Rolling Stones can still sell out a venue. (Beast of Burden is my favourite Stones tune)
*****************************************
Beast of Burden is one of my faves as well Jag.

I saw the Stones in Vancouver in the 70’s and again in Istanbul in 1998.
++++++++++++++
I was at the Stones concert in ‘72 at the Pacific Coliseum. Didn’t have a ticket. Climbed up a tree near an open top floor window. It was a long ways up.Made a leap and caught the window sill, crawled in, went down the fire stairs and opened the door and let my buddies in. Security saw us and gave chase but we lost them in the crowd. Good concert. I was a hero for about a day and a half.
—————
Sorry, to rain on the parade.
What happened to you guys?
Stones, “Street fighting Man” etc. Rebels.
Now part of the Old Men’s Club.
Fighting for the Status Quo.

#58 Habitt on 11.13.21 at 7:52 pm

54 PP you can save some cash buying US dairy products to be sure. Quality is lacking. Too many additives. They would love to flood our market with their marginal products. Bernier likely knows but doesn’t care. It’s about unit pricing.

#59 DoubleVaxxed(polio and TB) on 11.13.21 at 8:02 pm

It’s over in Canada, when a family of 4, dutifully following the so-called science and getting their young kids double-jabbed, no longer needs to spend over $1500 extra *just on Covid tests* to be able to leave and return to their own country for a week of sunshine in the winter.

#60 Do we have all the facts on 11.13.21 at 8:10 pm

Doug perhaps you might explain why an economy where Corporate earnings were supposedly on fire saw GDP growth decline from 6.7% in the second quarter of 2021 to 2.0% in the third quarter. Not much of a fire in my humble opinion.

Compounding the impact of declining GDP growth is the increasing deficit in the US balance of trade. It is quite possible that the annual trade deficit could approach $1.0 trillion by the end of the fourth quarter. The trade deficit of the US economy has doubled in size in just five years as a direct result of a strong US dollar.

Projections of trillion dollar deficits and trillion dollar trade deficits over the next three years it the type of normal most Americans would like to avoid.

The distance between Wall Street and Main Street is increasing every day.

#61 Don Guillermo on 11.13.21 at 8:14 pm

#55 Yukon Elvis on 11.13.21 at 6:23 pm
#40 Don Guillermo on 11.13.21 at 2:42 pm
#7 the Jaguar on 11.13.21 at 10:06 am

And yes, while the current generation likes to dismiss all things Boomer, the Rolling Stones can still sell out a venue. (Beast of Burden is my favourite Stones tune)
*****************************************
Beast of Burden is one of my faves as well Jag.

I saw the Stones in Vancouver in the 70’s and again in Istanbul in 1998.
++++++++++++++
I was at the Stones concert in ‘72 at the Pacific Coliseum. Didn’t have a ticket. Climbed up a tree near an open top floor window. It was a long ways up.Made a leap and caught the window sill, crawled in, went down the fire stairs and opened the door and let my buddies in. Security saw us and gave chase but we lost them in the crowd. Good concert. I was a hero for about a day and a half
***************************************
I saw you run by. I was jealous. I think that show cost me 10 bucks. That’s when 10 bucks was a lot of money!

#62 THE DANDADA on 11.13.21 at 8:17 pm

SO WHAT’S NEXT??

#63 Economist from Iqualit on 11.13.21 at 8:21 pm

Gasoline prices last month shot up nearly 50% from the same month a year ago, putting them at levels last seen in 2014. Grocery prices climbed 5.4%, with pork prices up 14.1% from a year ago, the biggest increase since 1990.

Prices for new vehicles jumped 9.8% in October, the largest rise since 1975, while prices for furniture and bedding leapt by the most since 1951. Prices for tires and sports equipment rose by the most since the early 1980s.

Even Joe Biden is using the term “exceedingly high” to describe the current state of gasoline prices, while Tiff Macklem sees no inflation in Canada.

#64 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 8:50 pm

#49 Wrk.dover on 11.13.21 at 5:01 pm
#41 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 3:06 pm
BONAVISTA, Newfoundland — Only a few years ago in Bonavista, a small and sleepy windswept fishing town in Newfoundland, dozens of pastel-colored heritage homes facing the sea sat dilapidated and empty.
_________________________________
One October afternoon we parked the rental in the lee of some tall warehouses and had lunch in the restaurant there. When we came back out, the windshield was salted beyond belief! And not one garage by any house in the entire community. This town is just to the NW of the NE corner of Nfld. Waves at the lighthouse were easily fifty feet tall. Just another autumn day.

==================================

The furthest east I have been in Canada is to a place called Main-a-dieu in Nova Scotia.

I walked back to the place I was staying at dripping wet on a sunny October afternoon.

They asked me if I slipped off a rock and fell in the ocean.

I replied no, the ocean looked so nice, I decided spur of the moment to throw myself in.

Probably the same result as if you used some of that iceberg-infused soap for sale in Bonavista.

Shrinkage is involved…

M47BC

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

P.S Been meaning to do this for a while.

Big hug to my Uncle WULLY in Alberta.

Miss ya pal.

It’s a different blog experience nowadays.

I’m like toenail fungus, I ain’t going anywhere…

#65 Puzzled in Mtl on 11.13.21 at 8:51 pm

Turner Nation 34

+ 1000

#66 Faron on 11.13.21 at 8:53 pm

#39 Sail Away on 11.13.21 at 2:17 pm

#20 Faron on 11.13.21 at 12:00 pm

Correct, legal is good. As was fully the case here.

Hahaha. Good one. But, um, no.

Provide your evidence that your hero (who killed two un-armed men) was in lawful possession of his assault rifle. Bonus points if you pull it out of the arse of a fox news anchor.

I think the term I’m looking for to describe you is… jackass? Yep, that’s it.

#67 Faron on 11.13.21 at 9:03 pm

#50 AM in MN on 11.13.21 at 5:05 pm

#32 Doug Rowat on 11.13.21 at 12:51 pm

As I’ve mentioned before, I think we’re riding a sugar high from the BoC printing C$500B and squirting it into a C$2T economy.

Fun analogy (or “straw man” as some confused people call them): In ultra marathons, or really any kind of endurance event, one can run for hours. Or, in my case, 30 hours/100 miles, on almost nothing but sugar. The sugar high gets you through the crap so you can feast on real food when times are less tough. You still finish the race intact.

That said, in my case I’m happy to tuck into a bowl of chili at mile 70 or a plate of bacon and pancakes at mile 80. Doesn’t have to be all sugar. But, the sugar serves a purpose.

#68 mark on 11.13.21 at 9:34 pm

Mainstream media seems to disagree, with you more covid to come.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/medical/virus-experts-just-sounded-this-covid-alarm/ss-AAQFa7l?ocid=msedgntp#image=2

#69 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 10:03 pm

#49 Wrk.dover on 11.13.21 at 5:01 pm
#41 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 3:06 pm
BONAVISTA, Newfoundland — Only a few years ago in Bonavista, a small and sleepy windswept fishing town in Newfoundland, dozens of pastel-colored heritage homes facing the sea sat dilapidated and empty.
_________________________________
One October afternoon we parked the rental in the lee of some tall warehouses and had lunch in the restaurant there. When we came back out, the windshield was salted beyond belief! And not one garage by any house in the entire community. This town is just to the NW of the NE corner of Nfld. Waves at the lighthouse were easily fifty feet tall. Just another autumn day.

==================================

The furthest east I have been in Canada is to a place called Main-a-dieu in Nova Scotia.

I walked back to the place I was staying at dripping wet on a sunny October afternoon.

They asked me if I slipped off a rock and fell in the ocean.

I replied no, the ocean looked so nice I decided spur of the moment to throw myself in.

Probably the same result as if you used some of that iceberg-infused soap for sale in Bonavista.

Shrinkage is involved…

M47BC

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

P.S. Been meaning to do this for a while.

Big hug to my Uncle WULLY in Alberta.

Miss ya pal.

It’s a different blog experience nowadays, but try and write once a month…

#70 Jane24 on 11.13.21 at 11:58 pm

Quote from today’s Daily Mail paper

The Bank of England is considering easing mortgage rules in a move that could boost house prices.

The central bank, led by Governor Andrew Bailey, will announce next month whether lenders can increase the volume of large mortgages they dish out.

Banks are limited in the home loans they can give to borrowers who need more than 4.5 times their salary. These customers must represent no more than 15 per cent of the new loans that banks issue.

The Bank of England referenced the rules in an update last month, saying ‘there has been little evidence of a deterioration in lending standards or a material increase in the number of highly indebted households’.
_____________________________

Maybe to rein in incredible house prices in Canada they just need stronger banking rules as in Britain. If most borrowers were legally restrained to loans at 4.5 times income, Canadian house prices would instantly collapse to more reasonable levels. But here we don’t have the CHMC to back-stop millionaires.

#71 Doug Rowat on 11.14.21 at 7:33 am

#60 Do we have all the facts on 11.13.21 at 8:10 pm
Doug perhaps you might explain why an economy where Corporate earnings were supposedly on fire saw GDP growth decline from 6.7% in the second quarter of 2021 to 2.0% in the third quarter. Not much of a fire in my humble opinion.

—-

You expect a world of 6.7% economic growth with no moderation? Not humble at all, in my humble opinion.

—Doug

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 8:28 am

@#54 Ponzie’s Pennies
“Chewing carrots and celery is also good for your teeth.”

+++

A wich wascally wabbit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3j6psNMSQIs

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 8:32 am

@#66 Faron’s sugar addiction
“Or, in my case, 30 hours/100 miles, on almost nothing but sugar.”

++++

I didnt realize talking nonstop for 30 hours or 100 miles was an Olympic event

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 8:47 am

@#68 Jane24
“Maybe to rein in incredible house prices in Canada they just need stronger banking rules as in Britain.”

++++

Stronger housing rules?
You own article just stated they are “easing mortgage rules”….. sounds like the beginnings of the Canuck real estate musical chair dance.

Never mind that.

Dont you worry yourself over the imploding Colonial housing market in boring old Canada Jane.
We country rubes deserve everything that’s coming.

Never mind all that tommy rot.
We grubby, unwashed, cross-eyed, bucktoothed, inbred colonials live for news from….The Continent and Jolly old England.

How’s the search for a Palace in France progressing?

A trifecta of Land in Brexit Blighty, EU France and
a southern EU Italian palazzo by the sea (where the fences keeping the boat people out….kinda ruins the view….).
That should secure bragging rights for a decade or two with the inlaws shivering back in their pathetic Radon gas filled basement suites in Canada.

#75 westcdn on 11.14.21 at 8:59 am

Same song, different singer. I will stand. It can be painful. My uncle Fred treating his men. Soldier: Am I going to die? Fred: Nope but you are going to hurt for a while.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 9:14 am

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/11/13/protesters-tell-air-canada-ceo-to-pack-his-bags-demand-more-french-from-management/

Gee.
I wonder if the polyglot “Finance Minister” would feel so smug if protesters showed up outside her Ottawa headquarters and demand she quit because she has zero financial credentials…….

#77 Brett in Calgary on 11.14.21 at 9:18 am

Thanks for the post Doug! You seem to be getting lit up today, but I think people are just cranky after months of the same poop. ;-)

#78 Dharma Bum on 11.14.21 at 9:19 am

COVID?

Oh…gimme a break.

Puhhhhleeeeeeze.

COVID was SOOOOOOOO 10 minutes ago.

#79 Drama Stem on 11.14.21 at 9:43 am

Victory! It’s over!

I won’t be charged with indecent exposure if I show my lips and nostrils to the world anymore? :-)

We’re all done?

>>
Netherlands, which has fully vaccinated 73% of its population, entered a three-week partial lockdown on Saturday, closing bars, restaurants and essential shops from 8pm, shutting non-essential stores and services from 6pm, and limiting home gatherings to four guests after case numbers hit new records.

#15 mike from mtl on 11.13.21 at 11:18 am

“Mission Accomplished” -George W. Bush May 1, 2003.

INDEED!

#80 SOMETHINGS UP!! on 11.14.21 at 9:51 am

Boss: Time to comback to the office.
Employee: Either I work from home or I go work for someone else.

Watch “Kevin O’Leary: They’re Never Coming Back | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/4K5nQwF4EJA

#81 Don on 11.14.21 at 10:16 am

#44

If true, that’s a chance of death of 1 in 667. That’s of the whole population. If you actually get the virus, the chance of death in Canada has been 2% or 1 in 50.

Now are the people who scoff at a death chance of a mere 1 in 667 (let alone 1 in 50 if they get the virus) the same people who regularly buy lotto 649 with a chance of winning of 1 in 13,984,000?

And these unvaccinated dim wits probably think they have a higher chance of eventually winning the big one than dying from the virus.

If they buy one lottery ticket a week for 30 years their chances of winning are a lousy 1 in 8,964.

A 99.7% chance of covid survival is nothing to be fearful of.

#82 Ben @ Smart Borrowing on 11.14.21 at 10:38 am

I also think that COVID is largely done, however inflation will only pickup from here, which is a serious problem for everybody.

#83 Flop… on 11.14.21 at 10:55 am

#49 Wrk.dover on 11.13.21 at 5:01 pm
#41 Flop… on 11.13.21 at 3:06 pm
BONAVISTA, Newfoundland — Only a few years ago in Bonavista, a small and sleepy windswept fishing town in Newfoundland, dozens of pastel-colored heritage homes facing the sea sat dilapidated and empty.
_________________________________
One October afternoon we parked the rental in the lee of some tall warehouses and had lunch in the restaurant there. When we came back out, the windshield was salted beyond belief! And not one garage by any house in the entire community. This town is just to the NW of the NE corner of Nfld. Waves at the lighthouse were easily fifty feet tall. Just another autumn day.

==================================

The furthest east I have been in Canada is to a place called Main-a-dieu in Nova Scotia.

I walked back to the place I was staying at dripping wet on a sunny October afternoon.

They asked me if I slipped off a rock and fell in the ocean.

I replied no, the ocean looked so nice I decided spur of the moment to throw myself in.

Probably the same result as if you used some of that iceberg-infused soap for sale in Bonavista.

Shrinkage is involved…

M47BC

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

P.S Been meaning to do this for a while.

Big hug to my Uncle WULLY in Alberta.

Miss ya pal.

It’s a different blog experience nowadays, but try and write once a month…

#84 DonM on 11.14.21 at 11:03 am

#44 Shawn Allan

*************************
If true, that’s a chance of death of 1 in 667. That’s of the whole population. If you actually get the virus, the chance of death in Canada has been 2% or 1 in 50.

Now are the people who scoff at a death chance of a mere 1 in 667 (let alone 1 in 50 if they get the virus) the same people who regularly buy lotto 649 with a chance of winning of 1 in 13,984,000?

And these unvaccinated dim wits probably think they have a higher chance of eventually winning the big one than dying from the virus.

If they buy one lottery ticket a week for 30 years their chances of winning are a lousy 1 in 8,964.
*****
Do you have data breaking down the average age of those deaths and if these deaths were were strictly because of Covid?

I know at my age and younger, I have a 100% of survival.

#85 Steven Rowlandson on 11.14.21 at 11:04 am

No need for antiviral pills as vitamin C and D3 work just fine. Just need the right dosage.

#86 Steven Rowlandson on 11.14.21 at 11:09 am

Anything that is PC has something wrong with it especially if it is pushed and protected by the MSM and government.

#87 DoN on 11.14.21 at 11:34 am

#44 Shawn Allan

If true, that’s a chance of death of 1 in 667. That’s of the whole population. If you actually get the virus, the chance of death in Canada has been 2% or 1 in 50.

Now are the people who scoff at a death chance of a mere 1 in 667 (let alone 1 in 50 if they get the virus) the same people who regularly buy lotto 649 with a chance of winning of 1 in 13,984,000?

And these unvaccinated dim wits probably think they have a higher chance of eventually winning the big one than dying from the virus.

If they buy one lottery ticket a week for 30 years their chances of winning are a lousy 1 in 8,964.

****
Where do you get your numbers from$

According to this site, the death rate is .065%, or a 657 per 1 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

CDC admits 80% of deaths are in the ages of 80+ years, and 94% already have pre-existing conditions.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Given markets are forward indicators, clearly them breaking new highs while covid cases rise and the fact that the vaccinated do get Covid indicate Covid is becoming a non-issue. If it was, there would be lockdowns.

The truth is, we must learn to live with Covid. The markets are telling us that. If this was not the case, the markets would not be making new highs quarterly.

#88 Bay Street is a Ghost Town and PATH is Dead on 11.14.21 at 12:02 pm

This is never coming back, Doug.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8279797/covid-toronto-path-retail-economy/

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 12:08 pm

“one in four Quebecers will be 65 or older by 2030…”

https://montrealgazette.com/business/local-business/an-economic-catastrophe-business-groups-urge-quebec-to-fight-labour-shortage

Jobs galore in Quebec and Canada… if the hard pressed kids want them……

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 12:21 pm

@#63 Iqualit Inflation makes me blubber

“…while Tiff Macklem sees no inflation in Canada.”

+++++

Tiff Macklem….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiff_Macklem

Daddy was the CFO of Birks Jewelry stores.
Tiff “suffered” the indignity of growing up in Montreal’s toney Westmount.
Private schooling for our Tiff.
Then on to bigger and better.
Suffice it to say he’s never wielded a shovel in a ditch to put food on the table or went without … ever.

Inflation is for the grubby unwashed to worry about.
Don’t throw a tiff.
Economists are busy creating the next Nobel winning equation on how the world works.

#91 Dragonfly 58 on 11.14.21 at 12:41 pm

There is a reasonably large group of retired Canadians that are quite financially vulnerable these days.
We put far too much faith in pensions, and grew up in very average, middle class Canadian households where investments were seen as gambling and thought of as either a fools game or the domain of very wealthy people who could risk money without hurting their overall wealth.
Far too late in the game did million’s of us see that pensions are potentially very badly effected by inflation. Middle class and even perhaps upper middle class when working, but once retired things are going from OK to worse. Possibly quite a lot worse if current inflation rates continue for a lengthy period of time.
Perhaps if we go all in on investments we can salvage something. But that also means a very cash starved late 60’s and early 70’s so we might be in better shape in our 80’s. Just about the time it’s more or less over anyway.
Hard to see an upside. Won’t be homeless or starving, but other than taking up birdwatching or perhaps lots of nature walks not a lot to look forward to.
In some ways the stronger the recovery becomes, the more left behind many retirees will be.

#92 Shawn Allen on 11.14.21 at 12:55 pm

DonM at 82 asked me:

Do you have data breaking down the average age of those deaths and if these deaths were were strictly because of Covid?

I know at my age and younger, I have a 100% of survival.

************************************
The death rates I mentioned were for Canada and World-o-meter.

If your chance of death is 0% that’s great… but you might want to give a thought to the death chance of those you might spread the disease to if you unvaccinated and catch it and those more at risk you might be encouraging to stay unvaccinated.

I was more questioning the people like Don at 44 who scoff at the slim chance of say 0.3% chance of death while they buy a lottery ticket and think they might win and the loto 649 chance to win is 0.000007%. I’m am not making that percent up and yet millions buy tickets ’cause you know “someone’s gotta win”. Well at 0.3% chance of death, a whole lot of someone’s gotta lose their life. Almost 30,000 in Canada so far.

#93 Shawn Allen on 11.14.21 at 12:58 pm

#60 Do we have all the facts on 11.13.21 at 8:10 pm

Doug perhaps you might explain why an economy where Corporate earnings were supposedly on fire saw GDP growth decline from 6.7% in the second quarter of 2021 to 2.0% in the third quarter. Not much of a fire in my humble opinion.

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Well corporate earnings ARE on fire. The explanation here is that U.S. corporate earnings as a percent of GDP are at record highs last seen in the 1920’s and still going up. Might some Democrats take notice?

#94 Shawn Allen on 11.14.21 at 1:05 pm

DragonFly 58 noted what inflation is doing to pensions and of those with not much invested and said:

Perhaps if we go all in on investments we can salvage something. But that also means a very cash starved late 60’s and early 70’s so we might be in better shape in our 80’s. Just about the time it’s more or less over anyway.

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If you that is your situation and you want to do that a great strategy would be to delay CPP until 70. Garth hates that idea and it’s not for me either since I will be flush in any case. But in the scenario described… CPP is fully indexed to official Stats Can all items inflation.

#95 mark on 11.14.21 at 1:08 pm

#44 Shawn Allan

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If true, that’s a chance of death of 1 in 667. That’s of the whole population. If you actually get the virus, the chance of death in Canada has been 2% or 1 in 50.

Now are the people who scoff at a death chance of a mere 1 in 667 (let alone 1 in 50 if they get the virus) the same people who regularly buy lotto 649 with a chance of winning of 1 in 13,984,000?

And these unvaccinated dim wits probably think they have a higher chance of eventually winning the big one than dying from the virus.

If they buy one lottery ticket a week for 30 years their chances of winning are a lousy 1 in 8,964.
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Do you have data breaking down the average age of those deaths and if these deaths were were strictly because of Covid?

I know at my age and younger, I have a 100% of survival.

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Fine survival is one thing, but your missing the other point of long, ongoing, health issues after you survive, if that’s your case, you may feel that you wished you died!
Employee buddy got sick, he survived but now needs heart surgery, fine before covid.

#96 Philco on 11.14.21 at 1:09 pm

I think inflation will run.
For one the green movement is problematic on its own.
We cant get away from oil / natgas for decades.
You just turn off those taps and see what happens.
People in power are clueless idiots ….oh and hypocrites.
They will be eating steak, lobster and caviar while they tell the peons to eat bugs and dont drive so you can save the planet.

The fear campain of covid and the climate crisis is full speed ahead coupled and with lose monetary policies that include the budget dont matter and unfettered spending. Top that with a big fat cherry called more taxes. Link in the dynamics of China… Your screwed.
People that cannot increase their earnings and returns on investment will feel and be a whole lot poorer in the next 5 years.

As for or me I need a 10% return and can get it gaurenteed but more likely double that. Being in a boom area with lots of land, free lumber and equipment. Im building another cash cow now. Full speed ahead.

#97 Pricecheck on 11.14.21 at 2:08 pm

#92 mark on 11.14.21 at 1:08 pm

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Fine survival is one thing, but your missing the other point of long, ongoing, health issues after you survive, if that’s your case, you may feel that you wished you died!
Employee buddy got sick, he survived but now needs heart surgery, fine before covid.

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I don’t like posts like this personally. I feel that the rules should be that any specific individual health cases should either have full disclosure or no disclosure at all.

We’ve seen too much by now, including that poor 14 year-old soul dragged into this type of nonsense in Alberta.

I heard from a friend of a friend who’s girlfriend’s cousin grandmothers friend said gossip is nothing but that.

#98 Don on 11.14.21 at 2:11 pm

#92 Mark

Fine survival is one thing, but your missing the other point of long, ongoing, health issues after you survive, if that’s your case, you may feel that you wished you died!
Employee buddy got sick, he survived but now needs heart surgery, fine before covid.

××××××

What long-term effects can be known from a 18 month old disease? What is the Longterm effects from the vaccine? Nobody knows. We do know there are severe side effects already. So why is so wrong for people to want to wait a year or two to see what the mid-term implications of an experimental vaccine are? So far we know that they are not preventing covid and the longer this goes on, there will be fewer reasons to blame those who have not got the shot yet.

#99 Don on 11.14.21 at 2:20 pm

I do not see interest rates rising substantially. It is going to be too painful for many if rates increase even 1 point. I beleive we have placed ourselves into the same situation as Japan in 1989.

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.14.21 at 2:50 pm

@#95 Don
“What long-term effects can be known from a 18 month old disease? What is the Longterm effects from the vaccine? Nobody knows.”

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If you really wanna go there….
It should take about 10 or 20 years to develop but…..

I’m waiting for the millions of lung issues( cancers ?) from billions of people wearing, cheap, nylon fiber masks and inhaling minute nylon fibers deep, deep, deeeeep into their lungs….
Yummy.

#101 SoggyShorts on 11.14.21 at 4:13 pm

#95 Don on 11.14.21 at 2:11 pm
#92 Mark

What long-term effects can be known from a 18 month old disease? What is the Longterm effects from the vaccine? Nobody knows. We do know there are severe side effects already. So why is so wrong for people to want to wait a year or two to see what the mid-term implications of an experimental vaccine are?

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Your reasoning doesn’t make sense to me.

We know that the vaccine reduces bad outcomes like hospitalizations and death, right? That’s why despite being a very small minority of the population the unvaxxed have a very big majority in the hospital.

We also know that Covid can cause damage to the lungs, heart, nervous system, kidneys, liver and other organs without killing you. Covid can cause long-term fatigue, shortness of breath, cough, joint pain and chest pain. Other issues include cognitive problems, difficulty concentrating, depression, muscle pain, headache, rapid heartbeat, and intermittent fever.

♦The vaccine might have long-term side effects for some people.
♦Getting Covid does have long-term side effects for some people.

One of those sounds objectively better than the other, no?

I just don’t understand how people can be fearful of the vaccine that has been administered to billions of people but at the same time not be worried about getting a virus that has killed millions and permanently damaged others.