Local realtors were left scratching their heads when a so-so bung listed for $1.2 million sold in a bidding war for $1.86 this week.
Okay, this would be a nothingburger in a GTA suburb or on a street in Burnaby. But this was in a far-off commutershed hick city an hour out by train. And the house sits on leased land. Plus, there were five offers. Shocking.
What does this tell us, along with the big-city monthly stats just being released?
Three things.
First, mortgage rates are going up. Fast. By a lot. And more to come. Most importantly, people are starting to understand that sub-2% home loans were a once-in-a-lifetime aberration and in the post-pandemic world this gift is not coming back. Already we’re at 2.8%. Mortgage dudes are bracing for more than 3.25% by Christmas. And the Bank of Canada hasn’t even started a tightening cycle which most economists think will bring about 8 increases totaling 2%.
So, the panic buying has started. People pre-approved for cheapo rates have just a few weeks left to go shopping. Hence, more price stupidity.
Second, inventory is collapsing. In both Van and the GTA the number of available homes for sale has crashed as never before in realtor memory. For example, last October (2020) there were 17,300 active listings on the market in Toronto, while last month that had fallen to just 7,000. So in both Vancouver and Toronto demand was higher but sales were lower, simply because buyers can’t find what they’re shopping for. And now the rate panic will make competitive juices flow even stronger.
Third, owners are terrified to become sellers, which begets a plop in listings and an eruption in price. This is self-reinforcing negative feedback loop. As the selling price of a house has exploded higher during Covid 19, the number for sale has correspondingly tanked. Most owners have watched real estate spiral out of control and concluded they’d not be able to purchase their own homes. They also realize if they sold and collected the windfall that – after commission, legal costs, moving expenses and the punishing transfer taxes payable on purchasing – buying a better place would be out of the question.
So, here we are. A frozen housing landscape. More demand than supply. Financing charges suddenly spiraling higher. Zero improvement after all the promises of the summer election campaign. More real estate taxes coming – empty house levy in Toronto, a federal flipping penalty, a new anti-foreign-buyer tax across Canada – while Ottawa is about to create more demand. The new FHSA, for example, is an unprecedented incursion by Ottawa into the housing market, showering incredible tax advantages upon potential new buyers, at a time when there is little to purchase.
Where we go from here is unknown. This is a new game. Out of the box. Unlived in our social history.
Young couples will not stop lusting for real estate. The largest cohort in the population (Millennials) is in full nesting mode. But with average prices topping $1 million (and that buys precious little) in our large urban centres and inventory waning, purchasing anything is a painful experience. Politicians have made it all worse, catering to house lust with new incentives (like the FHSA) instead of making it more attractive, acceptable and affordable to lease accommodation. What the campaign of 2021 proved was that the best thing governments can do for the people is back off, shut up and focus on keeping the mail moving (are letters still a thing?).
Detached houses average $1.5 million in Toronto and $1.8 million in Vancouver. Semis are over seven figures, and many are crap. Condo sales have increased 70% since they pose the most affordable way to own – if you want to live in 600 square feet at $1,200 a foot.
Normally, rising mortgage rates would result in declining prices. But mitigating that is a collapse in supply, bringing more competition. And sellers will stay scarce so long as they fear becoming buyers.
At least it’s November. Holidays are coming. The market always slows into December before things gear up for the active spring season. By that time (April) the central bank will have begun its tightening cycle, the pandemic will be more controlled, WFH will be ending for major employers like the banks, and mortgages will be on their way to 4% – doubled in a year.
Dog help us.
About the picture: “A pair of well mannered rescue dogs at home at my daughter’s house in Winnipeg,” writes Kris. “These two Heinz 57 variety animals – Rebel and Riot – came from Manitoba Mutts, an organization dedicated to retrieving strays from Northern areas of the province for adoption. Our family has always chosen rescue protocols for our pets ( spay, neutered, shots and chip ID ) and we are proud of our daughter for taking on the same responsibilities in her life.”
143 comments ↓
Geez.
Those dogs have their own Hide-a-Bed!
As for the bump in sales price due to scarce supply….
Dead cat bounce?
Please sir, can we have some of this in Alberta?
I need my shares in a residential property developer here to go up please.
I’m in the same boat. I have zero idea how this is going to play out.
– Flat market? Maybe, more expensive carrying costs but immigration and FOMO still exist.
– 50 % correction? Seems like the math makes this possible.
– 20% increase next year? FOMO is really hard wired into the Canadian psyche and there are some people who have lots of money. With such few sales it just takes a few to push this metric higher.
I would argue that there is definitely more downside than upside.
Dogs of war and men of hate
With no cause, we don’t discriminate
Discovery is to be disowned
Our currency is flesh and bone
Hell opened up and put on sale
Gather ’round and haggle
For hard cash, we will lie and deceive
Even our masters don’t know the web we weave
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
Invisible transfers, long distance calls,
Hollow laughter in marble halls
Steps have been taken, a silent uproar
Has unleashed the dogs of war
You can’t stop what has begun
Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion
We all have a dark side, to say the least
And dealing in death is the nature of the beast
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
The dogs of war don’t negotiate
The dogs of war won’t capitulate,
They will take and you will give,
And you must die so that they may live
You can knock at any door,
But wherever you go, you know they’ve been there before
Well winners can lose and things can get strained
But whatever you change, you know the dogs remain.
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
Oh Garth ,you are so behind times ,a nice condo in Burnaby near Crystal Mall/ Metrotown is 1,2 mil. A half duplex in the same area is 2 mil. Granted ,brand new but still.
I do fully agree that is insane and driven by lack of decent stock ,you should see some of the floor plans.
Central banks are letting inflation soar because households can’t afford an interest rate hike on their mortgage.
… that’s like saying, “we’re too worried about 30% of your expenses rising 1%, so we’re letting 70% of your expenses rise 5%.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1455551839550812171
When you realize countries design their economies around credit growth, lower interest rates to force you to spend, and intentionally run inflation higher because it’s a tax…
… you’ll come to realize politicians think of you as a commodity to exploit — just like wood or oil.
https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1456106086008823808
Fascinating explanation by @scoopercooper
on how corruption and capital flight from China, LatAm cartels, Iran/Hezbollah, and other money launderers are directly driving up already unaffordable home prices in Canada.
Well worth 20 mins of your time!
https://twitter.com/NateSibley/status/1456312071344304136
We are in the current situation by design of multiple consecutive governments. It is now structural, it became our only economy and half measures of politicians will not suffice and will fix nothing.
Where do we go from here is anybody’s guess….as Garth already pointed out…..
How is it that the Prime Minister can take the Canadian flag hostage ?
Ugh!
A detached home that appears to have been accumulating trash inside of it for decades — a home in such unsanitary and unpleasant shape that it was deemed “unsafe to show” to potential buyers — just sold for nearly one million dollars just west of Toronto.
After only four days on the market.
https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2021/11/4200-perivale-road-mississauga-ontario/
What was needed to offset the Millennials house lust was a Boomer downsizing push. That isn’t happening. Boomers are taking out HELOCs to give their Millenial offspring a downpayment to buy and thus are tied to their homes.
Prices going up.
Historically you go back to this Price vs. Rates chart, 1975 to 2021Q1:
https://i.imgur.com/6706VsR.jpg
and you can no reliably say:
Rates > 10% + Recession, Prices drop a lot & no dung Sherlock
– 1981-84 = -18.6%
– 1989-92 = -9.1%
Rates 5 to 10%, Prices drop moderately
– 1994-97 = -7.1%
Rates < 5% Prices random
– 2000-05 = +26.1% (pre Financial Crisis of 2007–2008)
– 2008-09 = -2.6% (post Financial Crisis)
– 2018-19 = -1.3%
Variable & 5 year Fixed will have to go above 5% for prices to drop and even then it can take a few years for that to happen (e.g., 1981-84).
————–
Historically:
Right now Prices can go in any direction with the current < 5% Rates and not high enough to dampen the Cdn RE Disease. If a recession comes at sub 5% Rates, small Price drops only.
At +5% Rates, Prices will drop moderately.
Add in a recession and +10% Rates, Prices plummet to crash.
CIBC report: Are Canadians Ready for Higher Rates?
https://economics.cibccm.com/cds?id=3b5dc85c-21e4-4590-a5fc-f8d9426aa158&flag=E
Nice pic of two dogawful gangster wannabees.
Heinz 57 style pets are great!
I’m wondering whether these bidding wars are folks so determined to ‘win’ at any cost that any reasonable thought is thrown aside? Seriously, 1.86 million for a house on leased land? So you don’t even get the dirt? For that amount you could actually buy a very expensive serviced lot in the GTA & erect a brand new house on it to boot. I can appreciate wanting to buy a place, but this RE craziness just isn’t worth it.
At some point in time, the grown-ups take over. In this case, the grown-ups will be the banks. They’ll decide that when lending is a poor risk and that will chill the market, regardless of what Trudeau does.
Nobody likes it when the grown-ups show up, but they’ll shut it down before the place gets wrecked.
4% mortgages. Ok, not the end of the world (for me). Bunny’s Armpit is still offering reasonable mortgages, although believe it or not bidding wars with 40k over asking was a thing here this summer too. Question is, are these rates going to double after that to 8% in a couple of years? Should one look for a 10 year mortgage? Or is that too far out to have a reasonable prediction.
Hey Kris, good on you for rescuing the mutts. Much better deal for them the “shooting day”.
“for $1.2 million sold in a bidding war for $1.86 this week.”
this is non stop insanity. Where the hell is the money coming from? more important, the incomes to support such insanity!!??
This craziness won’t end until the ridiculous “single-family-only” zoning is abolished. Not happening anytime soon, I afraid.
Oh, and – Happy Diwali!
DELETED
all cash, whatever
but, if there is a mortgage provider behind this deal… what is the equity/down? and are the providers foreseeing risk… seems to me this sale may repeal on final financing if it is not all cash (and if it is all cash… there is something else going on)
Trudeau is a dimwit. He’s lucky the opposition is incompetent. Housing has soared on his watch, in part because he hasn’t cracked down on Chinese money laundering and he’s exacerbating the bubble with these silly new measures. He’s flooding the country with immigrants during a housing shortage.
Apparently anyone with an IQ of 82 or less isn’t even capable of serving in the military. They also account for roughly 10% of the population but 30% of all message boards.
https://youtube.com/shorts/4-TQpCUMuTY?feature=share
Logically, this game must end when inventory for sale has reached 0. At which point the real estate market’s volume also becomes 0. Realtors who didn’t make a single sale this year already know what this feels like. Ought it not to be in the interest of the industry to find the optimal (almost certainly lower than today’s) price point that maximizes its profit? Then again, they might have never heard of the Law of Supply and Demand.
Little Pink Floyd poetry?
Dogs of war and men of hate
With no cause, we don’t discriminate
Discovery is to be disowned
Our currency is flesh and bone
Hell opened up and put on sale
Gather ’round and haggle
For hard cash, we will lie and deceive
Even our masters don’t know the web we weave
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
Invisible transfers, long distance calls,
Hollow laughter in marble halls
Steps have been taken, a silent uproar
Has unleashed the dogs of war
You can’t stop what has begun
Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion
We all have a dark side, to say the least
And dealing in death is the nature of the beast
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
The dogs of war don’t negotiate
The dogs of war won’t capitulate,
They will take and you will give,
And you must die so that they may live
You can knock at any door,
But wherever you go, you know they’ve been there before
Well winners can lose and things can get strained
But whatever you change, you know the dogs remain.
One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world, one world
There is an article in the Edmonton Journal which says that the city council has postponed auctioning off
properties that have not paid their taxes there appears to be a larger number than previous years about 90.
There are interest rates and then there are the interest rates to come.
The FOMO inflicted have no inkling, no clue what’s to be forced upon North America in the form of interest rates.
No government can stop it. The Fed and BoC can’t change it. No threat of recession or worse can overcome it.
Confidence in America’s ability to pay its debts is beginning to fray at the edges. Artificially low interest rates are coming to an end.
The country will soon no longer be able to borrow at low interest rates period.
5 years, 10 years, a generation to fix it perhaps? No, Never. Our standard of living would have to drop to third world status sooner rather than later.
Steady inflation and rising interest rates are not transitory…they are here to stay for the long haul.
Historically normalized rates are coming as well as to the demise of many a FOMO inflicted.
Justify it out of your little worlds all you like and FOMO out.
What is one to do in this environment? And what gives? would rising costs and inflation lead to increase in salaries, or the rent and housing would drop. I would say this is insane and not sustainable, but I said that 5 years ago and it just got worse since then.
Before the general wisdom was to move out of city if you can’t afford. I’ve been monitoring prices in some smallish towns in BC, like comox and castlegar. even there starter home is in 800k range, considering lack of job opportunities, it is likely to go to one income or reduced income so the math works out to the same.
Also renting is becoming more challenging, currently we rent and if we were forced to move our monthly rent would go up significantly. 3bdrm places around lower mainland are already going for over $4,000/month.
> This is self-reinforcing negative feedback loop.
Sorry, usually positive feedback is “self-reinforcing”, not negative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_feedback
It’s 2021. – Garth
People who get pre-approved and a rate for a new build, and the build takes a year + before posession, will need to get the new rate at about 90 days before taking possession. This is going to surprise a lot of folks awaiting their new builds.
The Single family Home Belt…
#15 SP on 11.04.21 at 3:33 pm
This craziness won’t end until the ridiculous “single-family-only” zoning is abolished. Not happening anytime soon, I afraid.
***************************
I wonder how Manhattan got rid of single family homes or how it went to zero lot lot line building? Did it happen before there was such a thing as zoning? How did former residential areas become commercial areas?
Why do you think Trudeau passed this Housing is a Human Right law in Canada?
@#18 Timmy
“Trudeau is a dimwit. He’s lucky the opposition is incompetent…..”
++++
Sigh.
You were doing so well up to that point.
Talking about demand for housing…
Ontario wants the FEDs to DOUBLE immigration into this Provence from 9,000 to 18,000, to help mitigate the labour shortage.
These immigrants are going to want a place to live! More demand for affordable housing.
Off topic. 2nd attempt…
Italia has a bird about the new WHO Covid deaths prediction:
“Pandemic alert WHO: “In Europe another half a million deaths from Covid are risked by February” *
[Clickbait and they got my attention for sure & probably yours too]
https://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/articoli/Oms-In-Europa-si-rischia-un-altro-mezzo-milione-di-morti-da-Covid-entro-febbraio-2022-deecfe83-5f64-43df-adb9-c4bbfaa12088.html
Ya cases surging save Italia, Spain, Portugal and France in Europe:
https://i.imgur.com/VruSo25.png
In most cases, ICU, deaths still low save some of the Slavic countries:
https://i.imgur.com/ngHTYK1.png
https://i.imgur.com/6F1Qk2G.png
——————
MORAL OF THE STORY:
1. Be careful Canada where you go travel in Europe. Sweden, Finland are OK and go freeze there, Iceland & Norway doing badly with cases.
2. You & buddy in the USA lag Europe (Europe = EU + Brexit) in waves so looks like ANOTHER WAVE will come to North America????:
https://i.imgur.com/xqwJ5jI.png
3. The LITTLE VIRUS THAT COULD now #6 on the all time human history Epidemics list in terms of KILLS:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics
———
* They might be right.
ZIMBABWE tests more per case of Covid than Canada, USA or the UK
“like a thief in the night”
https://i.imgur.com/ZIniblj.png
A made in Canada housing crisis … is this the new normal? Two million dollars for a crummy house an hour from Toronto? Nobody in Canada has that kind of money. Have you ever looked around for a place to rent in the Big Smoke? The quality of life in this country has taken a significant nosedive during the last 6 years. This pathetic blog scares the hell out of me. I want out.
A former chairman of the China Huarong Asset Management Co, Lai Xiaomin, was charged and convicted of (attempted) bribery and sentenced to death and then executed and diddley daddling (twit) PM JT wants to cozy up to them.
#18 Timmy on 11.04.21 at 3:41 pm
Trudeau is a dimwit. He’s flooding the country with immigrants during a housing shortage.
1-there is no housing shortage; there is a commoditization of housing
2-Trudeau is happy with his success in creating the impression that he is flooding Canada with much needed immigrants – he is not flooding … – for 2021, a majority of these so-called immigrants were already registered and living here – and if you are following their reality, it is that they are already broke and can barely afford their current hole in the wall – for 2020 the numbers were half of what they were targeting – for 2022, I predict the numbers will be way down as around the world people are beginning to catch on: even Canadians cannot afford a home – becoming top most expensive country in which to buy housing or rent – who immigrates to that?
#19 Tiffany Pontes Dover
You don’t need Jordan Peterson to tell you that.
– Per se nota.
Classic Northern Manitoba reserve mutts, given a second chance. A bit of Husky, Rotti? Lab, Shepherd and even greyhound in the mix.
@#30 Housing is a Human Right!
“Why do you think Trudeau passed this Housing is a Human Right law in Canada?”
++++
Bwahahahaha.
Gee I dunno….
Votes?
You Liberals are so cute in your naivety.
If you actually think a rich kid from Quebec “royalty” who’s married to another descendant of Quebec “royalty” gives two turds about the “little people”….. you’re dumber than I imagined.
#36 wallflower on 11.04.21 at 4:48 pm
#18 Timmy on 11.04.21 at 3:41 pm
Trudeau is a dimwit. He’s flooding the country with immigrants during a housing shortage.
1-there is no housing shortage; there is a commoditization of housing
2-Trudeau is happy with his success in creating the impression that he is flooding Canada with much needed immigrants – he is not flooding … – for 2021, a majority of these so-called immigrants were already registered and living here – and if you are following their reality, it is that they are already broke and can barely afford their current hole in the wall – for 2020 the numbers were half of what they were targeting – for 2022, I predict the numbers will be way down as around the world people are beginning to catch on: even Canadians cannot afford a home – becoming top most expensive country in which to buy housing or rent – who immigrates to that?
— ——
Don’t let Ponzie hear you say that!
Take whatever number of immigrants we import per year, and knock 30-40% off. That’s how many eventually bail out of Canada after 10-20 years. COVID likely drove that number up even higher last year. Housing prices also have likely caused an increase since 2017.
Once Trudeau is done ******* everything up, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn we’re losing 50%+. The Old Canada that had so much to offer was stabbed to death by our goofy federal Liberals, and they’re not letting up one bit.
#32 cramar on 11.04.21 at 4:34 pm
Talking about demand for housing…
Ontario wants the FEDs to DOUBLE immigration into this Provence from 9,000 to 18,000, to help mitigate the labour shortage.
These immigrants are going to want a place to live! More demand for affordable housing.
— –
Well, there is no affordable housing left in Ontario anywhere you won’t find solid granite 2” under the turf. So they are going to end up in somebody’s basement. Simple as that. Her majesty’s good ship “affordable housing” sailed and was promptly sunk off the coast October 19, in the year of our Lord 2015.
T2 and Chrystia Freeland = Dumb and Dumber
2023 is going to be epic – prepare now – the worlds supply chain system isn’t getting fixed anytime soon and the world is going to get a whole lot angrier
#14 OK, Doomer? on 11.04.21 at 3:15 pm
At some point in time, the grown-ups take over. In this case, the grown-ups will be the banks. They’ll decide that when lending is a poor risk and that will chill the market, regardless of what Trudeau does.
Nobody likes it when the grown-ups show up, but they’ll shut it down before the place gets wrecked.
—————————————————-
Wishful thinking. The reality is far more nefarious than that.
#134 Faron on 11.04.21 at 4:55 pm
#133 Dr V on 11.04.21 at 3:13 pm
132 Faron – thanks!
Thanks for the link. It’s frustrating that the vandalizing yahoos have ruined access for the rest of us. We are lucky that Queesto keeps North Main open.
Anyhow, if you do have an open gate you will hit an impassable wash out maybe 5km in. We took mountain bikes in.
—————
No big fan of aholes who, with their motorized monsters are vandalizing our pristine forests and scare the animals away.
Tragedy of the Commons, at its worst.
Confiscate the vehicles, and let them walk out on foot.
And, of course fine them.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8347132/low-income-seniors-gis-struggle/
As she turned 65 last March, Luann Bannister was thrilled to be able to find the perfect home to rent in the downtown Edmonton neighbourhood she grew up in.
As a single senior, she had carefully calculated how much she could afford to pay for rent — a calculation that included the federal guaranteed income supplement (GIS), a benefit worth as much as $950 a month that is paid out to about 4.5 million seniors across the country.
But then, as Bannister was preparing to move into the home she’d rented — Ottawa pulled the budgetary rug out from under her.
“I get a notice from the government telling me that my GIS has been depleted,” Bannister said in an interview this week. “So that was panic city. All of a sudden I signed a lease and I don’t have money to cover the bills.”
A hundred Billion here.
A hundred billion there.
Who cares.
It’s only taxpayers money.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/11/04/health-spending-pandemic/
SHOCKED!
I tell you shocked. Today’s” Wanna Be,” house buyers have become unmoored from reality and are drifting into deep outer space. Before too long, as a result of the fast approaching withdrawal of liquidity there is the strong possibility they will never be seen again. With higher mortgage rates baked into the cake, come renewal time, the recent buyers they once envied, will be joining them on a one way journey to the sun. However at a slightly later date. The reality today centers around the fact that the most inappropriate monetary policy in history is the sole bedrock supporting the absolute craziest asset valuations in well over 100 years. If easy money is the bedrock of valuations and the Fed is getting ready to shift the bedrock, it might be prudent to pay a wee bit of attention to some unfavorable forecasts. You just might live to fly another day. Amen Brother
#21 Tiffany Pontes Dover on 11.04.21 at 3:42 pm
Apparently anyone with an IQ of 82 or less isn’t even capable of serving in the military. They also account for roughly 10% of the population but 30% of all message boards.
—
And 100% of people named Jordan Peterson. JP is an intellectual for the mediocre on par with Elon Musk. They both have made a killing playing that role. Maybe the guilty conscience is part of JP’s substance abuse problem. Elon’s? Just a frat boy.
#26 Comrade
” What is one to do in this environment? And what gives? would rising costs and inflation lead to increase in salaries, or the rent and housing would drop.”
Big immigration push post covid is going to ramp up housing and rental demand. This will also limit the increase in salaries.
Interest rates rising SHOULD in theory bring things down, but it is too late for that. Wealth is too abundant. Those with money will continue to pick up investment properties any time they are available, lower prices simply means they are getting the investment at a discount. We already see this with first time buyers basically be offspring of the wealthy, with Mom financing the purchase.
You can still get ahead. Work 2 or 3 jobs, sacrifice and save and invest. Buy RE and let renters pay the mortgage. Rinse and repeat.
Kilt.
Stocks are Expensive…
The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is down to 1.3%. That may be a record low. Meanwhile interest rates are said to be rising.
I will go out on a limb and put on the record that I would bet a modest sum that the S&P 500 will be lower one year hence than it is today.
“Most importantly, people are starting to understand that sub-2% home loans were a once-in-a-lifetime aberration and in the post-pandemic world this gift is not coming back. ”
Economic predictions are just palm reading with math and numbers added.
#7 jimmy zhao on 11.04.21 at 2:50 pm
How is it that the Prime Minister can take the Canadian flag hostage ?
—-
Because Canadians have become a bunch of apathetic stooges.. and it’s bloody embarrassing.
#78 Faron on 11.03.21 at 7:30 pm
#64 Penny Henny on 11.03.21 at 6:40 pm
Jackass, debatable, but there are plenty of reasons the answer there is no.
You, who contributes almost nothing to any discussion here and who yaps at me whenever I argue with one of your pals like a chihuahua standing behind its owner, are irrelevant. I’d rather stick my neck out and get called a Jackass then relegate myself to forgettable subservience.
////////////////
Faron, you are so full of yourself that you fail to realize that some (most?) of your contributions are just you thinking that your opinions matter more than others, sort of like Ponzie.
Here’s a joke for you.
How do you get a climatologist to get off your porch?
Just pay him for the pizza.
Been looking in Wales { UK } just for laughs . 40 acres , 3 very substantial farm buildings ,1 a shop / tractor storage building, the other 2, very large steel frame 30 x 100 foot barns, 2 stone cottages and one 120 year old 3 bedroom main house. Needs some work but really very nice.
$500,000 Pounds. { around $800,000 Cdn. }A set up
like that here in Langley { no chance of subdivision for 40 years or probably even much more } would be $3-5 million Canadian, and probably would not have as good buildings. Living in the wrong country !!
Some back of napkin math says that for each 10 basis points in rate rise, carrying costs remain in the same realm with a -10K loss in purchasing power.
25 BP == -25K
50 BP == -50K
75 BP == -75K
100 BP == -100K.
etc etc etc.
Any truth to this, or was I channeling my inner Smoking(Wo)man on this one? :)
First the FED says they will Taper a tiny amount and no mention of a rate hike.
No rate hike from Bank of England today. Shocking!!!!
What could they be afraid of? Anyone?
Rate hikes? Please. What a joke.
Deny it all you like but all of Canada’s real estate market is a price bubble that is grossly and genocidally over inflated. Government spending and borrowing is also out of control also. Real estate values and government borrowing and spending have to be sledgehammered down to almost nothing and that is all there is to it.
We are beyond curing the patient by clipping his toe nails.
Turner, what the hell is wrong with those dogs?
You puppies that come here… whatever it is, you love our way of life, you love our milk and honey, at least you could pay a couple of bucks for a poppy.
#45 Victor V on 11.04.21 at 5:54 pm
“I get a notice from the government telling me that my GIS has been depleted,” Bannister said in an interview this week. “So that was panic city. All of a sudden I signed a lease and I don’t have money to cover the bills.”
— – – –
Of course. Canada is broke. Our dipstick yo-yo goofball government owes a Trillion. If I ran my household like that I’d be in jail right now. There won’t be any taxation answer for the problem these donkey brained @ss-clowns in Ottawa have created. We elected a bunch of ding dongs, now we live in a ding dong country – where our seniors starve to death.
Is this a surprise? I don’t think so. Just look at the [email protected] bozos we got running the show.
@#48 I’m Faron and you’re not.
“And 100% of people named Jordan Peterson. JP is an intellectual for the mediocre on par with Elon Musk. ”
+++
Slagging millionaire authors and billionaire inventors because…..you’re smarter than them?
My god.
How can you afford that huge ego on a govt salary?
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
No big fan of aholes who, with their motorized monsters are vandalizing our pristine forests and scare the animals away.
Tragedy of the Commons, at its worst.
Confiscate the vehicles, and let them walk out on foot.
And, of course fine them.
———————————
Motorcycles don’t do much damage, but they typically weigh about 300 pounds maybe 500 with rider. So they do less damage than a horse. But an F350 with mud tires? Yikes! Fortunately that seems to be less popular with the rise in popularity of quads (4 wheelers to those from the US), which are lighter but still way heavier than a motorcycle.
There are single track trails around here that only motorcycles can access and they haven’t significantly eroded in 30 years except for the steep bits where people spin their tires to get up.
Now #48 Faron thinks he’s smarter than Jordan Peterson. What a gas.
Living with Asperger’s is not easy I guess.
@#35 Pickles
“A former chairman of the China Huarong Asset Management Co, Lai Xiaomin, was charged and convicted of (attempted) bribery and sentenced to death and then executed….”
+++
Perhaps the Communist judicial system might be on to something.
Execute one corrupt politician, bureaucrat or managerial type…..and I’m sure it would focus thousands more to shape up or quit.
With what is sure to be a most interesting winter approaching it is time to take the few weeks we have left to make sure your preps are in order! I serviced and tested my generator today as well as doing a fuel inventory, I have 7 days supply on hand.
Canadian Tire has this one on sale for $399 so there isn’t much excuse unless you live in an apartment.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/certified-3550w-4450w-gas-generator-0550380p.html#srp
Good luck out there! Let’s hope high fuel prices is the biggest problem.
#35 willworkforpickles on 11.04.21 at 4:44 pm
A former chairman of the China Huarong Asset Management Co, Lai Xiaomin, was charged and convicted of (attempted) bribery and sentenced to death and then executed and diddley daddling (twit) PM JT wants to cozy up to them.
——————
Why pick on the Chinese for an example of draconian punishments.
The Saudis still have public beheading for Adultery on their books.
And yet, most Western Countries are sucking up to them.
Apparently, the Saudis don’t do public executions anymore.
But i’m sure, if a poor bastard just as much as lays an eye on the favorite wife of a Sheik……
Chop, Chop.
To the posters here who are outraged about China’s Human Rights Abuses, I suggest you stop buying Made in China.
Put your money where your mouth is.
And stop blaming our Prime Minister, who just wants you to be happy.
I don’t consider my home as an investment. It is more of a source of expense although there is renting out space to mitigate or even profit. Not my cup of tea. I live small and free within my means plus I am responsible despite others trying to tag me with their lack.
I am still an Albertan separatist. I am in the minority – Toronto/Montreal count your blessings (Ottawa is not worth a methane fart) I do not like where T2 is going. It is not for “Canada”. I could rail on and on about his Quebec biases. I see T2 has declared his support to reduce methane gases. Does this mean he will try to introduce a methane tax on dairy and beef. What do you think?
My mortgage comes up for renewal next week. I have been served well by going short term. So I am choked by considering a 5 year term. I will probably roll most of my line of credit balance into my mortgage. It was used to buy investments so the interest on the LoC was tax deductible. The math may change so I am hedging against the worse. T2 is not my friend or Canadian so I bet against him.
It tells us that the Greater Trudeau Area is home to the dumbest people on the planet.
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
#134 Faron on 11.04.21 at 4:55 pm
No big fan of aholes who, with their motorized monsters are vandalizing our pristine forests and scare the animals away.
Tragedy of the Commons, at its worst.
Confiscate the vehicles, and let them walk out on foot.
And, of course fine them.
—
Sorry Ponz, but I think that is too simplistic a take and shows your inexperience in BC’s woods. Sure, there are some bad apples out there and they make the responsible, motorized users look bad. In the case of Mosaic, their problem was not people ripping around in their quads or trucks, it was a few people shooting at heavy equipment and/or being irresponsible with fire.
There are a lot of just fine to good apples out there who happen to recreate in a motorized way. Many of them cut wood for heating their homes (or selling to rubes like me) that would otherwise moulder in a slash pile. I’ve had plenty of interactions with snomos and motor bikers that were very respectful of my plodding along on skis or foot or bike. They slow down, they wave. Sometime there’s the ol’ stop and chat. I’ve been offered assistance too. (An aside: People think going into the woods with minimal kit is dangerous. I would argue that being out of shape and relying on a machine is often more dangerous).
Sure, I would prefer people don’t burn gas to recreate or burn less (I drive to trailheads) but I prefer even more that as many people get out and enjoy the wilds as possible because that’s the only way it stands any chance of protection.
Anyhow, the small Lomas basin is a wee island gem and is by no means protected. Get it while you can.
Immigrant Man, we already locked in a 10 year mortgage rate at 2.65% back many months ago. We have over 9 year left on it and by that time our $800,000 mortgage will be at least 65% paid off as we will pay off our mortgage by 2032 latest. It just seem silly to try to save maybe $6,000 to $9,000 a year interest and take a big risk of having a huge increase in our mortgage payments by $20,000 a year as 3.5% to 4% mortgages are coming.
#54 Dragonfly 58 on 11.04.21 at 6:38 pm
Been looking in Wales { UK } just for laughs . 40 acres , 3 very substantial farm buildings ,1 a shop / tractor storage building, the other 2, very large steel frame 30 x 100 foot barns, 2 stone cottages and one 120 year old 3 bedroom main house. Needs some work but really very nice.
$500,000 Pounds. { around $800,000 Cdn. }A set up
like that here in Langley { no chance of subdivision for 40 years or probably even much more } would be $3-5 million Canadian, and probably would not have as good buildings. Living in the wrong country !!
—-
More like the wrong time. It’s the post-Trudeau Canada where virtually everything that matters has gone to $h!t. Canada used to be awesome, you probably remember yourself. Today though, you’ll pay out the wazoo because we elected a troop of brain-dead primates to run the place. Canadians used to be pretty smart, but today they’d lose a game of chess to a fence post.
Be glad you have a house at all, and that you’re not going to starve as a senior because Trudeau cancelled your GIS. Everyone getting started post 2015 is euchred right outta the gate. You were fortunate enough to build a life here back when Canada was great. So much for that, now we have Trudeau’s garbage post-national banana republic woke craphole – where an urban shack costs 1.8 million.
#53 Penny Henny on 11.04.21 at 6:33 pm
#78 Faron on 11.03.21 at 7:30 pm
Well, expressing ideas and opinions takes a certain confidence and egotism (components of self-importance) no doubt. I would guess your heroine Ayn Rand would place a lot of value on self-importance. Some of your heroes here do, being “job creators” and all giving them the right to do so, presumably? Garth is also pretty self-important to have authored books and a blog full of his ideas. Why aren’t you complaining about that?
Garth is generous enough to support a diversity of viewpoints and even exchange about them. Seems you just whine about the ones you don’t like then ask that the messenger be silenced rather than rebut any of the content. Read this paper and then situate yourself.
https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1160255.pdf
Regarding your joke. Well. It’s dumb. The government doesn’t make pizza and, according to Don Guillermo, I’m a government worker. LOL
I don’t really pay attention to you unti lI hear you whining about my comments, but I think I can count the substantive comments that you’ve made on one, maybe two, hands. If you are going to yap, yap better Penny.
#68 Faron on 11.04.21 at 7:40 pm
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
#134 Faron on 11.04.21 at 4:55 pm
No big fan of aholes who, with their motorized monsters are vandalizing our pristine forests and scare the animals away.
Tragedy of the Commons, at its worst.
Confiscate the vehicles, and let them walk out on foot.
And, of course fine them.
—
Sorry Ponz, but I think that is too simplistic a take and shows your inexperience in BC’s woods. Sure, there are some bad apples out there and they make the responsible, motorized users look bad. In the case of Mosaic, their problem was not people ripping around in their quads or trucks, it was a few people shooting at heavy equipment and/or being irresponsible with fire.
There are a lot of just fine to good apples out there who happen to recreate in a motorized way. Many of them cut wood for heating their homes (or selling to rubes like me) that would otherwise moulder in a slash pile. I’ve had plenty of interactions with snomos and motor bikers that were very respectful of my plodding along on skis or foot or bike. They slow down, they wave. Sometime there’s the ol’ stop and chat. I’ve been offered assistance too.
—- —-
There you go Ponzie, us motorized guys aren’t all bad.
#20 Timmy “He’s flooding the country with immigrants during a housing shortage.”
Yes Timmy he is………Libs like to think its more voters for them, doubtful but hey. Helps prop up institutes of higher learning as well as local school districts budgets balancing.
2019 We have :
Permanent Residents
Work Permits
Quebec
Total aprox 750,000
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ircc/documents/pdf/english/infographic/immigration-at-a-glance-2019-en.pdf
Study Permits (which is a way to get PR status) 400K
Total arrivals Canada 2019 1.15 Million.
https://thepienews.com/news/canada-2019-new-study-permits-issued-increases-13-on-2018-figures/
No Idea whether it’s appropriate or not but the number is probably more than most would expect.
#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.21 at 7:07 pm
#62 Ha ha on 11.04.21 at 7:11 pm
Oh man. Thanks for proving my point guys.
#61 Nonplused on 11.04.21 at 7:07 pm
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
…only motorcycles can access…
—
Wow, really? Are they paved with rattlesnakes (like triplenet’s ranch)? Magma? Cosmogenic spallation fragments? Alberta sounds dangerous.
What does this tell us, you asked?
1) Zillow’s flipping algo has been tweaked to start pumping and dumping.
2) Greater idiotic fools are an aberration, not the norm.
btw, in BC I’m seeing gorgeous homes stagnating at $1.1M while some are even reduced by $100k; People that are obviously able to reason correctly.
3) Gov’t central banks have to get out of the business of bailing everyone out and let real market forces take over. Yes, even if it means boom/bust for the greater fools.
4) Don’t Listen to the Fake news!
Just heard that the Premier of BC.
Hulk Horgan is battling Throat cancer.
I hope that everyone can put their partisan views aside, and wish him a speedy treatment and recovery.
#54 Dragonfly 58 on 11.04.21 at 6:38 pm
Been looking in Wales { UK } just for laughs . 40 acres , 3 very substantial farm buildings ,1 a shop / tractor storage building, the other 2, very large steel frame 30 x 100 foot barns, 2 stone cottages and one 120 year old 3 bedroom main house. Needs some work but really very nice.
$500,000 Pounds. { around $800,000 Cdn. }A set up
like that here in Langley { no chance of subdivision for 40 years or probably even much more } would be $3-5 million Canadian, and probably would not have as good buildings. Living in the wrong country !!
———————–
Buddy,
We know that Wales is in the UK.
Lots of good soccer players come from there.
And the heir to the Throne.
Prince of Wales.
Been there. There is a reason why it’s so cheap.
Anyway,
This could be a golden opportunity for IHTC9 who desperately wants to relocate his family.
UK citizenship is easy to get.
And, as a bonus, Friesland, his ancestor’s home, is just a stone’s throw away.
#61 Nonplused on 11.04.21 at 7:07 pm
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
No big fan of aholes who, with their motorized monsters are vandalizing our pristine forests and scare the animals away.
Tragedy of the Commons, at its worst.
Confiscate the vehicles, and let them walk out on foot.
And, of course fine them.
———————————
Motorcycles don’t do much damage, but they typically weigh about 300 pounds maybe 500 with rider. So they do less damage than a horse. But an F350 with mud tires? Yikes! Fortunately that seems to be less popular with the rise in popularity of quads (4 wheelers to those from the US), which are lighter but still way heavier than a motorcycle.
There are single track trails around here that only motorcycles can access and they haven’t significantly eroded in 30 years except for the steep bits where people spin their tires to get up.
—- – –
Here in Ontario, most of the formal maintained and permitted trails are old rail beds. Gravel, flat, basically a little road thru the countryside for 100’s of km. Likely the most popular trails out there. I’d say the bulk of the ATV/SXS crowd is 40+. These things cost 15-40K, so no surprise I guess. Bottom line is most aren’t interested in slogging though 2 feet of mud and getting covered in crap.
Gee, I opened one of Faron’s links for Dr. V from yesterdays final entries, and zoomed it out. My conclusion is, B.C. has the mange. Clear cuts that don’t appear green is a sign of recency on the East Coast. There are too many big brown ones in those images to all be new. Don’t they come back in B.C.?
We need the Alberta oil industry re-tooled to start producing fake trees. Jobs for all!
Regarding Faron’s post #68 tonight, locals tell me you are not supposed to ride a snow machine alone for more than a minute. Too hard to walk back from beyond that distance if it breaks.
As for Garths topic, the smart ones must have flipped out the dog houses ( no offence intended to dogs ), the only houses creeping into the market now will be through attrition, like long ago.
Mom’d up buyers can afford another $500/mo in their imaginations, because they have never been stable long enough to live to a planned budget and don’t know how to model the one they need to see to want to cancel the purchase.
After brake jobs on the commuter car are postponed and the kids bump something while texting and blow the airbags, dental work will be the next sacrifice to keeping the mortgage payed.
The benchmark price of a single-family home in the Central Okanagan is right back to where it was in August.
The Association of Interior Realtors released its October numbers on Thursday, and the benchmark price for a detached home in the Central Okanagan was $961,600. The mark was $961,800 in August before dipping down to $923,500 in September.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/350714/Benchmark-price-for-Central-Okanagan-house-jumps-4-in-October#350714
#63 crowd-vator-ftz
Maybe smiley will try to offer the Chinese judges a bribe at the winter games in February if they cheat on the scores.
I get you Garth, none of this makes sense; especially in the past few years. The reality is that people are willing to pay those prices, how?? Will they get hurt??? Somehow they mostly manage to side step it. Real-estate has gone nothing but up in the past ten years, to absurd levels that I could never fathom..
Unless interest rates go up to 8 or 10 percent I cannot see any change due to (how they do it is beyond me) people changing.
It is what it is and the kid P.M. will punish us all with an ill informed higher carbon tax to pay his bills.
I just do not understand as to why people put up with this; personally I am too old to care any longer but what a shame….
#23 Dogs of war
The reality of civilization is quite ugly…
Our little worlds are closing in on us and lifestyle changes might prove to be a solution, the majority ignor.
Consume the day away in a off handed way…
Coming from BC where my daughters town house is valued at $890K, we have been in our Pictou house now for one week that cost $64,000. Same size house but I own my dirt. See why thousands are coming to NS.
#30 Housing is a Human Right on 11.04.21 at 4:31 pm
Why do you think Trudeau passed this Housing is a Human Right law in Canada?
————————————
More homeless then ever. And housings done what since 2017?..On his watch cause he’s the world biggest clown.
I’m embarrassed for this country and as a business person that’s paid a sh!t ton of taxes.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-housing-rights-human-rights-1.4414854
Actually Ponzius, if you are in your 60’s and retired like I am UK Citizenship is not possible. You must have UK Grandparents, or be working in a job the UK needs. As a Canadian retiree I am out of luck. 3 great grandparents from the UK but all my grandparents were born in Canada except one born in Ohio.
Wha’s so wrong with Wales? As a retiree it looks much better than the outskirts of Vancouver. I want a small acrage, in B.C. I would need to win a good sized loto jackpot.
IHTC90
if you let a dog off leash and take your car into a forest in Austria, a Forester who is a guardian of nature, will shoot the dog and take you to prison.
Global tv 6pm News in the Lower Brainland.
BC Govt is considering a 1 week cooling off period for real estate transactions.
Buyers can walk with no penalty 7 days after purchase.
Possible end to blind bids.
Home inspections mandatory….
And a local ( and very vocal) anti vaxx person in his mid 40’s has died… no mention as to what killed him.
#67 Cowtown Cowboy on 11.04.21 at 7:33 pm
It tells us that the Greater Trudeau Area is home to the dumbest people on the planet.
————–
Sure,
Your comment tells everyone that you’re the dumbest of them all.
Go get your trophy.
@#74 Faron
Did Henny over tip more than a Penny for that pizza?
#2 Shawn Allen on 11.04.21 at 1:56 pm
Please sir, can we have some of this in Alberta?
I need my shares in a residential property developer here to go up please.
_________________________________________
Sorry to tell you. This only applies to Canada.
Besides, what were you thinking … investing in Alberta. Don’t forget to flush when you are done!
@#85 Wandering Geezer
“we have been in our Pictou house now for one week that cost $64,000. Same size house but I own my dirt. See why thousands are coming to NS.”
+++
Just wait, the screaming Nor’Easter winter storm howling across the icy Atlantic chilling you to the bone.
Throw another log on the fire and send Greta another “carbon credit”.
Lots of people “stuck” on the property ladder, too. A move from a 3 bedroom bungalow to a modestly larger 4 bedroom 2 story in the same town will set me back $250k+ as well as another $75k in real-estate commissions/fees/taxes. I think I’ll just stay put.
Hey look, Selina Robinson made an appearance. “Cooling Off” legislation coming to BC Real Estate.
You won’t have to worry about the inventory issue if 4% interest rates materialize.
Seriously, we have not seen rates that high since 2008, flirting with that level temporarily for a few month in 2010.
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 9:34 pm
if you let a dog off leash and take your car into a forest in Austria, a Forester who is a guardian of nature, will shoot the dog and take you to prison.
——–
Wouldn’t ‘gardener’ would be more accurate for Europe’s quaint manicured copses? And if somebody shot my dog, there would be at least two bodies in the woods.
My favourite type of big game hunt involves cross country backpack several km, often up a mountain slope, then camping and hunting for days in areas abounding with game and no people. Most areas in BC have grizzlies, which I’m not crazy about. A buddy and I have a week long archery mule deer hunt set up for N. Dakota next year. Might take Garth’s advice and stay there to avoid taxes.
Rebel and Riot have surely forgotten their past struggles. They look so happy.
The Free market of “greedy capitalism” should have corrected the high prices of the real estate. But we in N. America no longer have a free market. Everything is regulated: zoning, interest rate, mortgage approval criteria, bylaws, etc. The political left wants more control and more tyranny when the citizens are dependent on the state. Welcome back to the English speaking USSR!
The sad irony is that when everything will collapse the government will safe the banks and the irresponsible home owners with my and your money in order to avoid riots and revolution, which, if not prevented, can invite Canada to the gates of hell like it invited the Russian Empire in the year 1917.
I am not Martin Luther King, but I also have a dream. I dream to split North America into two new countries. One will be the country of the progressists, BLM, ANTIFA, Obama and Soros where the principle of Diversity and Inclusion and the soviet style socialism rule. The second one will be the America of Ronald Reagan, America of working class, America of old fashioned family which has female mother and male father, America, where “Allahu Ahbar” will sound as bad as “Heil Hitler”.
… and I want to have the Trump style strong and high fence between the two Americas.
#75 Faron on 11.04.21 at 8:10 pm
#61 Nonplused on 11.04.21 at 7:07 pm
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
…only motorcycles can access…
—
Wow, really? Are they paved with rattlesnakes (like triplenet’s ranch)? Magma? Cosmogenic spallation fragments? Alberta sounds dangerous.
————————————–
Are you talking about the single track trails? There are trees and only a motorcycle can fit through certain sections making the trail inaccessible to anything wider. Except a horse. I reckon a horse could get through. But the horses tend not to be in those areas.
There are also trails wide enough for a quad but not a truck. These are significantly more damaged than the single track trails. They tend to be 2 trenches spaced quad width apart the whole way.
But nothing compares to a hole an F350 with mud tires tried to winch through. One truck can ruin a trail for everybody. Except the motorcycles, who make a single track trail through the trees and go around.
Dragonfly your other option is a Welsh new wife!
Suggest you look at the Portuguese or Cypriot schemes for people who work digitally or are retired. In both southern Europe counties $500,000 Cdn buys you an incredible property. Cyprus has a low flat tax for retired people of about 10% and most speak English as well.
Look around, so many warm cheap places to live in this world.
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 5:51 pm
No big fan of aholes who, with their motorized monsters are vandalizing our pristine forests and scare the animals away.
Tragedy of the Commons, at its worst.
Confiscate the vehicles, and let them walk out on foot.
And, of course fine them.
*****
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 9:34 pm
IHTC90
if you let a dog off leash and take your car into a forest in Austria, a Forester who is a guardian of nature, will shoot the dog and take you to prison.
================================================
It’s really, really easy to see how your country of origin gave rise to the man with the funny moustache when you read comments like these.
You can take the man out of Braunau am Inn, but…
#48 Faron on 11.04.21 at 6:07 pm
And 100% of people named Jordan Peterson. JP is an intellectual for the mediocre on par with Elon Musk. They both have made a killing playing that role. Maybe the guilty conscience is part of JP’s substance abuse problem. Elon’s? Just a frat boy.
=====================================
If JP’s “mediocre” intellect has made him incredibly wealthy, what does that say about your much-less valued own, plied in the pursuit of well, whatever it is you do?
Try to at least hide your naked envy of those wealthier and more adept with human interactions than yourself. The neediness makes us cringe to have to watch all the time.
The attempted slur re: substance abuse pretty much sums you up in a nutshell. I’m no fan of Peterson but you’re classic modern liberal…all fake empathy until you think you can score points scratching at an ideological foe’s perceived shortcomings. Disgusting.
Opt out coming soon. Now regulations have to be implemented to help fools have another avenue to avoid responsibility and hold up sales and pretty well hold their hands…..
Oh those Mill’s and GenXer’s, will they ever really take responsibility and make good decisions? (Heavy eyeroll and head shake)
Opt out realestate purchase legislation coming to BC
68 Faron – a very good comment
44 Ponzie – Friends and I spend a fair amount of time on
our (pedal) bikes on logging roads behind locked gates. Even if not locked, still out of cell range. I like having other users out there in case of accident. Have had surprises, but never a serious issue with the motorized
crowd. Like the bears, they are more surprised to see us than we are to see them.
80 Wrk.dover – I have a version of Google Earth Pro which does allow viewing “historical imagery”. if you go back maybe 15 years then progress forward, you will indeed see the clearcuts green up.
One thing that might affect it though is the decreased rotation cycle for harvesting. Now only 50 years under the best conditions, and last I read Mosaic plans on an average 70 year rotation, so at anytime, a considerable area has been recently harvested.
Historically, the island was logged from the coast inland.
Much of the east coastal plain is now 3rd growth 20-40
yrs old. Second growth harvesting continues up the river valleys. it is highly mechanized today with felling machines, attached by cables to IHCTD9’s offspring, traversing steep terrain.
Faron – I would enjoy a(brief?) summary of your
thoughts on the effects logging in our area has on
climate change.
Healthy real estate market when even recent sellers can get priced out. A real FUBAR situation.
Easy credit sloshing around. FOMO. Media pumping the real estate boards as experts ha ha ha ha ha ha haaaa. Rates increasing.
Our current global state of affairs is on a wobbly foundation. China is allowing their revert to the mean in order to balance social upheaval and threaten party control.
The party has been raging for years, time for the hangovers.
#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.21 at 9:35 pm
Global tv 6pm News in the Lower Brainland.
BC Govt is considering a 1 week cooling off period for real estate transactions.
Buyers can walk with no penalty 7 days after purchase.
Possible end to blind bids.
Home inspections mandatory….
***********
The Victoria Real Estate Board spokesperson didn’t think this would help…instead he advocated for more co-op housing. I lost respect for Chek news.
I am part of the demographic in your third point. I so much want to sell my 2 story house in the city and buy a bungalow in a smaller town, but I fear getting into the market right now.
Renting is problematic for us, as I am the head of a mixed family. That’s right, dogs AND cats…
Faron
You’ve been drinking again, we can tell.
Go away.
It’s finally happening!!!
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/banks-cleared-to-raise-dividends-hike-executive-pay-after-osfi-lifts-restrictions
At least I still have our dear Photo-op Minister to gripe about! :)
#58 still possible in Ontario but you will need to be several hours from Toronto .
Where I am , If you wanted a few acres , a nice house and outbuildings within 1. 5 hours prices start at about 2 mill and typically you either get nice size acreage and a crummy house or a nice house and a few acres . 40 plus acres with a nice house and outbuildings = 3 mill plus . 15 years ago it was 400 k
If The land is in the path of future development then forget about it that’s a whole different ball game
@#104 Dr V
“Faron – I would enjoy a(brief?) summary ”
+++
Thats like tossing a ball for a Retriever and asking it to sit…
( spay, neutered, shots and chip ID )
It is a short step from pets to people. Don’t give the government and their friends any ideas.
Do we get belly rubs, free treats and can stop working, too? I’m in. – Garth
I find Jordan Peterson to be thoughtful, incisive, courteous, eloquent and immensely persuasive. He never takes cheap shots to score a point.
And intellectually honest. A breath of fresh air.
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 9:34 pm
IHTC90
if you let a dog off leash and take your car into a forest in Austria, a Forester who is a guardian of nature, will shoot the dog and take you to prison.
____
Well, I never take my car into the forest, it’s just not built for that kind of environment.
The only motorized vehicles in the bush out my way are the typical bikes/ATV’s, and the rare SXS. Everything is pretty much impassable by truck due to terrain or barriers.
I don’t think folks getting their dogs shot by the government would fly in my ‘hood.
93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.21 at 9:57 pm
@#85 Wandering Geezer
“we have been in our Pictou house now for one week that cost $64,000. Same size house but I own my dirt. See why thousands are coming to NS.”
+++
Just wait, the screaming Nor’Easter winter storm howling across the icy Atlantic chilling you to the bone.
Throw another log on the fire and send Greta another “carbon credit”.
Spectacular prose Crowdie we are back after four years traveling the world, lived 21 years in Halifax. According to Greta we are all going to be roasting within five years. But I am getting a heat pump installed in case she changes her mind when she grows up.
Hey T2, instead of taxing the banks, why not tax mortgages? You know, get it at the source… being transparent and all.
#115 Nomad Geezer on 11.05.21 at 8:32 am
But I am getting a heat pump installed
_____________________________
That heat pump going to arrive any time soon?
How much, all in? Very interested…
#169 IHCTD9 on 11.03.21 at 11:30 am
“My beef is your long-standing tendency to talk about the benefits of your solar array while allowing the reader to assume it is a stand-alone system.” How can my solar array possibly be a stand-alone system if it’s only producing half of my electricity? Your reply isn’t even logical.
Were you in the oil and gas industry? As Upton Sinclair once wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” :)
#52 Imgonnabesick
Because Canadians have become a bunch of apathetic stooges.. and it’s bloody embarrassing.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlejsgxOxrU
#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.21 at 9:34 pm
IHTC90
if you let a dog off leash and take your car into a forest in Austria, a Forester who is a guardian of nature, will shoot the dog and take you to prison.
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Suddenly, I clearly understand 1930s and 1940s European history.
Young couples are not lusting after real estate, they just want to do what every generation has done before them, buy a house and live their life. Sadly, with the artificially suppressed rates for nearly 15 years and counting, here we are with housing unaffordable to those starting out.
What is left? Hyperinflation and/or higher rates; likely a combination of. The tin foil hat folks sitting on bullion and squirrel recipes don’t look so stupid now eh?
Where on the Internet are people being told ‘hyperinflation’ is coming? It’s not. Higher prices? Sure. 50%-per-month escalation? Never. Just as with the misused words ‘survivor’ and ‘genocide’, we are corrupting a perfectly good language. – Garth
I wish there was some negative news about Real Estate prices in Toronto, so that I can buy again. It’s really frustrating when I don’t even get to view a recently listed house because it sells on the listing date with a huge bully offer. It’s not FOMO for me, just my 32 years of RE investing where I have only seen prices escalate, with very minor corrections along the way. Our plans now are to add secondary suites in all of our properties to get more cash flow. That’s more work but in the short term, but my family’s legacy will be more secure, because as everyone knows, RE prices only go up long term.
117 Wrk.dover on 11.05.21 at 9:09 am
#115 Nomad Geezer on 11.05.21 at 8:32 am
But I am getting a heat pump installed
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That heat pump going to arrive any time soon?
How much, all in? Very interested…
We started getting the tradies set up while we were still in BC so are ready to go. Install at end of this month. Circ. $15,000 ducted.
#118 Gravy Train on 11.05.21 at 9:10 am
#169 IHCTD9 on 11.03.21 at 11:30 am
“My beef is your long-standing tendency to talk about the benefits of your solar array while allowing the reader to assume it is a stand-alone system.”
How can my solar array possibly be a stand-alone system if it’s only producing half of my electricity? Your reply isn’t even logical.
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Hahaha, few if any stand alone systems produce 100% of the required electricity. There’s normally a diesel genset tucked away in the garage, and a big propane tank out back…
#71 Faron on 11.04.21 at 7:58 pm
Well, expressing ideas and opinions takes a certain confidence and egotism (components of self-importance) no doubt. I would guess your heroine Ayn Rand would place a lot of value on self-importance. Some of your heroes here do, being “job creators” and all giving them the right to do so, presumably? Garth is also pretty self-important to have authored books and a blog full of his ideas. Why aren’t you complaining about that?
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Faron- Why aren’t you complaining about that? Waaaa!
That’s not fair, I want my mommy.
Garth may not be perfect but he certainly isn’t a pompous ass like yourself Faron.
Thanks for the suggestion Jane, but a replacement wife creates way too many problems. Few things more wallet flattening then a divorce. Besides , after 37 years of life together I have actually become quite fond of the existing wife.
I live in the lower Mainland. I actually like the mild weather and forest environment. That’s why I mentioned Wales. Pretty similar to where I now live except for substantially lower property prices.
I want a little bit of land, but not covered in 3 feet of snow for 4 or 5 months a year. And not a sun baked near desert. And not somewhare where I would stand a 50 – 50 chance of being burned out over the next 20 years.
Lots of places in Washington State fit the bill, but U.S. medical insurance kills the whole concept.
The Pictou Lifestyle
@#85 Wandering Geezer
“we have been in our Pictou house now for one week that cost $64,000. Same size house but I own my dirt. See why thousands are coming to NS.”
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I filled up with gasoline in Pictou on a stop there this summer.
Shockingly, the procedure was to pump the gas and then be trusted to go inside and pay. Throwback!
#64 Prep Time! on 11.04.21 at 7:18 pm
With what is sure to be a most interesting winter approaching it is time to take the few weeks we have left to make sure your preps are in order! I serviced and tested my generator today as well as doing a fuel inventory, I have 7 days supply on hand.
Canadian Tire has this one on sale for $399 so there isn’t much excuse unless you live in an apartment.
https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/certified-3550w-4450w-gas-generator-0550380p.html#srp
Good luck out there! Let’s hope high fuel prices is the biggest problem.
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I’d pass on a gasoline genset. The fuel doesn’t last long, and the carb doesn’t remain unplugged if not run regularly on today’s petrol. I’d go with diesel, Propane, or an off the street NG setup.
Off the beaten path is a wood fueled gasifier powered genset, or even better – a charcoal fueled one. You can literally just dump charcoal on the ground out in the open and it’ll still be good fuel 100 years from now. If you keep it out of the elements, it’ll last for a thousand years and longer. Charcoal is a great clean burning tar-free fuel that makes excellent engine grade gas – if you don’t mind making it.
There are a few practical prepping channels on YouTube with some good ideas, but due to the need for these guys to make money – most of the stuff ends up being geared toward an apocalyptic end to modern civilization which won’t happen – unless Greta gets her way.
More likely trouble will come with escalating costs for the basics. Here energy would be the number one candidate to strike, followed by food. It’ll all be available, just not for cheap like in the past. We’ve seen this scenario come to pass in other countries. The stress will escalate quickly if not alleviated, and we’ve fixed it via debt for years now. No real answers have been provided for decades. Hydro too expensive? Subsidize it. When the ability to borrow dirt cheap goes away, that portion of modern civilization funded by same goes away too.
Ironically, the answer to these scarcity problems at the individual level comes from the distant past: livestock, gardening, and wood.
@#120 Dharma Bum
“Suddenly, I clearly understand 1930s and 1940s European history.”
+++
A school chum of mine took a Forestry Course at UNB and when he graduated in the late 70″s started with Lands and Forests.
He was assigned to train for one year with the strictest, by the rules, S.O.B. to ever work for Lands and Forest in Nova Scotia.
Part of the job was looking for poachers.
One late summer day in his first year of work , he and his trainer came apon a guy in the woods with his dog….. and the guy was carrying a .410 shotgun.
Obviously bird hunting out of season and with no license. Potential of huge fines, seizure of his truck, gun, etc.
The senior Game Warden asked him what he was doing.
“I’m out here to shoot my dog!” I’m moving and they dont allow dogs where I’m going. I just can’t bring myself to do it.”
They all looked at the dog. Then at the man.
Everyone there knew he was lying to beat a huge fine.
The senior game warden pulled out his pistol and shot the dog dead.
“No need to thank me. Just hurry up and bury it.”
They walked away.
And the farce from the elites continues. Whats ok for them is not ok for you. Leonardo you know who you are you 1st class hypocrite.
So many gobble it up. Sad.
Its stump burning day I better remember to grab the 50ft weinie stick.
Happy F day.
https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ten-hypocritical-moments-cop26-climate_uk_617fb011e4b09314321a5fe4
re: Faron #48
Why are you so angry?
What you said about Jordan Peterson is exactly the reason the guy had a mental breakdown. It’s not fair to say things like that – what actions have you judged him on? Speeches and youtube videos where he is making good money trying to help people get through the mental/emotional anguish of living in a very dishonest world? Seems like a good pursuit to me.
Your opinion may disagree with his but his intentions seem to be rooted in honesty. And its okay if you disagree – that is allowed. You are both free to have the social space to be at liberty in a stable environment of peaceful pursuit.
My goodness. Share thoughts and opinions for sure – this is a good forum for that but don’t harpoon people who have put themselves out there with their ideas. It doesn’t look good on the world we all share.
#45 ‘Victor’ – the question to ask is whether the senior in the CBC article accepted CERB benefits. As per a CBC headline I read, some 90,000 seniors in Canada who were receiving GIS applied for & received CERB. Now they are facing the reduction of their GIS due to their income being higher than the qualifying amount to receive GIS.
Now I did the math. In 2021, maximum GIS is $948.82 per month. If one has a partner who receives OAS, the maximum GIS benefit drops to $571.15. Now GIS is not taxed, but neither was CERB, although the CERB payments are taxable income whereas GIS is not. From a senior’s point of view, the risk of applying for CERB was likely very much outweighed by the immediate benefit. As in, receiving $24,000 compared to a maximum of $11,385.84 or $6,853.80 if one had a partner on OAS. Ditto if both of the seniors in question qualify for GIS. CERB benefits multiplied by two is $48,000 of taxable income compared to less than half that if both seniors qualified for full GIS. And if those seniors both are on OAS, the GIS income multiplied by two is a mere $13,707.60 compared to the aforementioned $48,000 – $24K in CERB times two. The loss of one’s GIS for a year simply makes financial sense, since one doesn’t lose OAS or CPP benefits by having taken CERB. Even after paying tax on the CERB income any senior who applied for & received CERB is still better off financially than if they simply stuck to GIS.
Just as with the misused words ‘survivor’ and ‘genocide’, we are corrupting a perfectly good language. – Garth
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The corruption persists when no one has the guts to make corrections and push back.
#104 Dr V on 11.05.21 at 1:08 am
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Yeah. I think the red colour of the recently logged land has to do with the predominance of Vaccinium (blueberry, huckleberry and salal) species in the understory here as well as bracken fern. Vaccinium tend to have red stems and red leaves in the fall. If the images were captured any time between September and May you would see red (or snow). Bracken dies back reddish each year.
The land between a line drawn 50 miles west of the east coast and the coast was ceded to the railroad(s). A mind boggling feat was that of the crew who surveyed the line that was drawn straight on a map, so had no regard for terrain. There would have been plenty of human use trails then, but none of them would have b-lined from point A to B. Look at a map of Strathcona Provincial Park, that NW/SE trending angle is the remnant of that division. Timber harvesting has been heavy and ongoing in that area due to private ownership.
Global climate change? Complicated. There’s a fair amount of CO2 release (much of it from soils) from the harvesting of old growth. However, if wood is used in a way that it doesn’t rot for centuries (primarily home building) than that could be a chunk of CO2 sequestration making forests a carbon capture and storage mechanism. There’s a reflectivity effect as well (albedo). Forests around here are dark when viewed from space and thus absorb a fair amount of energy. Clear-cut lands are lighter in colour and reflect energy back to space. So, a potential net cooling from that viewpoint. I’m not up on the literature on this, but I think it comes down to the type and age of the forest and also the climate the forest is in (boreal forest with a long snow season vs. redwood forests of northern California vs tropical rainforests). So, not simple.
Locally, the effect of cutting is for dramatic warming of the air and more so of the water in streams. This mostly has to do with moisture. Forests are very good at keeping water stored in soils and root systems and preventing runoff. So, during the summer, forests are able to mitigate some of the heating through evaporation (latent heat absorption). Energy from the sun is absorbed in the canopy of the forest where it’s more easily mixed into the free atmosphere. And, the shading provides obvious relief. This applies down to the urban scale. Treed areas were tens of degrees cooler during the June heatwave than untreed areas. For streams, clear-cuts mean greater swings in flows and low flows lead to warmer water that is bad for native fish.
#118 Gravy Train on 11.05.21 at 9:10 am
#169 IHCTD9 on 11.03.21 at 11:30 am
“My beef is your long-standing tendency to talk about the benefits of your solar array while allowing the reader to assume it is a stand-alone system.” How can my solar array possibly be a stand-alone system if it’s only producing half of my electricity? Your reply isn’t even logical.
Were you in the oil and gas industry? As Upton Sinclair once wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” :)
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Does that also apply to the “sky is falling, climate crisis” industry?
Why not tax vacant homes more like upwards of 25%? I used to build houses in the Rockies for people that were overseas and some of them would only come out for a couple weeks in a year. That would free up supply.
#131 The West on 11.05.21 at 11:45 am
re: Faron #48
Why are you so angry?
What you said about Jordan Peterson is exactly the reason the guy had a mental breakdown. It’s not fair to say things like that – what actions have you judged him on? Speeches and youtube videos where he is making good money trying to help people get through the mental/emotional anguish of living in a very dishonest world? Seems like a good pursuit to me.
Your opinion may disagree with his but his intentions seem to be rooted in honesty. And its okay if you disagree – that is allowed. You are both free to have the social space to be at liberty in a stable environment of peaceful pursuit.
My goodness. Share thoughts and opinions for sure – this is a good forum for that but don’t harpoon people who have put themselves out there with their ideas. It doesn’t look good on the world we all share.
———
Well said
Wow. Another month, another even larger rate hike by our central bank (Czech National Bank). Wonder when the BoC will act as decisively?
To recap: ČNB raised rate from 0.75% to 1.5% a month ago, which was about 50 basis points higher than forecast. Today they raised it another 1.25% to 2.75%. Meanwhile the ECB keeps theirs at 0%.
https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/interest-rate-hike-could-see-cost-of-czech-mortgages-soar
“In increasing interest rates, the ČNB is attempting to secure the long-term economic health of the Czech Republic. But the measure could increase the financial burden faced by the general public, which is already getting ever-heavier due to global supply issues. In the wake of the Covid pandemic, a tightening of belts may lie ahead.”
My first thoughts:
1. Sure glad I’m not carrying a mortgage.
2. Sure glad CZ isn’t on the Euro.
3. Perhaps it will crash the market in Prague and we’ll acquire some more properties. For cash, of course.
But the relevance to a Canadian finance blog: the striking parallels to most developed economies world-wide, definitely including Canada. Too bad the federal government is in total denial about any sort of belt-tightening, ever. Spend spend spend! Gonna be epic to see how THAT turns out with rates going uppa uppa uppa.
#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.05.21 at 11:35 am
The senior game warden pulled out his pistol and shot the dog dead.
“No need to thank me. Just hurry up and bury it.”
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The dog was innocent.
##136 Stlbstl
“Why not tax vacant homes more like upwards of 25%? I used to build houses in the Rockies for people that were overseas and some of them would only come out for a couple weeks in a year. That would free up supply.”
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How would that “free up supply?”
They’ll simply pay the tax without renting the place.
#140 ‘Barb’ – correct. Also, what is this ‘free up space’ meme? First, the rent charged on what I’d bet would be luxury accommodations would likely be far more than those looking for affordable housing could afford. Further, it forces people to become landlords & hey, what about when the owner wants to use that space? Last I looked, leaseholders couldn’t be forced to vacate a place at the landlords convenience unless they were in violation of the rental agreement. And eviction isn’t a cakewalk. So what is this belief that taxing empty residences will suddenly result in more available housing? The owners will sell? OK, but there would have to be a lot of sales to reduce prices to the point where the lower income brackets could afford to buy.
Barb there’s no way people are paying 250,000 per year just in taxes for a regular sized vacation home.
Linda I don’t think that’s a what a meme is. When they want to go a vacation just use the hotels that are all over the place. 10% of houses are vacant in Canada it would definitely make a difference for supply. It’s an incentive to sell, and it might not fix the house issue but it would help.
You seem genuinely oblivious to how sad you come across; sniping at Jordan Peterson and mocking an illness.
And you, *so* smart about….weather! Wow, where would society be without receiving your *gifts* as opposed to Peterson’s contributions.
Dollars to donuts people find you insufferable in real life as well as Garth’s blog.
PS.
Post more – it really shows how smart you are (and not how sad and small)