The tempest

A few days ago a couple paid $620,000 over asking for a smallish detached house in Toronto which sold for $3.1 million. In Victoria, a 52-foot lot with a house that vermin would be ashamed to call home is listed for $1 million. In the GTA condo sales have increased over 70%. And investors are back.

Big time. As broker and realtor John Pasalis (who hates my guts and often says so) tweeted the other day:

One of our agents just sold a detached Toronto house in the $1.5M price range. Out of the 14 showings she got, 10 were investors She called every buyer agent to specifically ask them if their client was an end user or investor…..

In fact, look at this chart from Teranet – a useful glimpse into who, in fact, is driving the current real estate market across Canada. In the last 10 years investors – those who own multiple properties – have come to dominate the scene. They now eclipse first-timers. And these are not typically big corps or Chinese dudes Hoovering whole floors of new condo complexes. Instead they’re families, sucking off equity from bloated principal residences to “invest” in a condo or two, or amateur landlords happy to rent out with negative cash flow because “prices also ways go up.” So far, they’ve been correct.

Who are the buyers? People who already own (orange line) as new buyers fade (red line)

Source: Teranet

But will things now change, since inflation has erupted with central banks and the bond market recoiling? If mortgage rates double or more over the next couple of years, investor cash flow could be seriously eroded and it’s hen inevitable prices will react.

For those who think this is impossible, consider this…

Mortgage rates have increased twice… in a week

Mortgage rates went up again, quietly, last week. Even as the Bank of Canada left its benchmark rate untouched for now, bond yields spiked and RBC was one of several lenders responding. Mortgage rates have risen twice in just a week. The 5-year fixed at the Royal inflated another fifth of a point, to 2.79%. The variable also increased. Says mortgage broker/rockstar Rob McLister: “3% advertised rates aren’t far away.”

Yeah, yeah, a fiver at sub-3% is still historically cheap. But what a change in a few weeks, from 1.99% to 2.79%. On a $500,000 home loan payments that means rise by $200, but the interest paid over one term shoots higher by $20,000 – all in after-tax dollars.

And, count on it, there are more mortgage increases coming as the five-year Government of Canada bond yield reflects inflation, the busted supply chain, 157,000 new jobs created in September, the surety of higher taxes in Chrystia’s coming whack-‘em budget, the cost of T2’s climate change and reconciliation fetish, and dishwashers getting signing bonuses. Here’s where we sit this weekend:

Bond yields show why 3% loans are closer at hand

Remember, it’s Mr. Bond Market that sets mortgage fixed rates. Not the Bank of Canada. Not the government. But once the CB starts its tightening cycle, the prime rate will jump, along with VRMs, lines of credit, credit card charges, HELOCs and demand business loans. The prime is now 2.45%. According to the market, this could rise to about 4% in a year’s time. Here is Scotiabank Economics is charting of this aspect of monetary policy in Canada (red line) vs other places. Are you ready for this?

So if investors are now driving the housing market and if the cost of money is (probably) set to double then the economics of speculative residential real estate ownership worsen. The reasonable conclusion: people will buy fewer rental condos and houses. Demand will decrease as mortgage costs rise. Meanwhile the feds are set to impose their new flip tax and increase the capital gains inclusion rate, while Toronto launches its underused-house tax and politicians here look to New Zealand where mortgage interest deductibility for investors is being stripped away.

It’s a perfect little storm.

About the picture: “Happy Halloween from Candy!” write blog dogs Brad and Kathy in Burnaby, BC. “She is our $2,800 COVID Golden Retriever puppy.  Without doubt, she is the best investment we have ever made.”

135 comments ↓

#1 Party on on 10.31.21 at 10:49 am

The following is from Doug Noland’s latest weekly commentary (October 29):

“The world today confronts a unique confluence of synchronized fragile bubbles and surging inflation. And, importantly, the worsening inflationary backdrop is reducing central bank flexibility to use monetary stimulus in response to market instability. This is poised to become a key issue, with major ramifications for vulnerable market bubbles.”

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/10/weekly-commentary-losing-control.html

#2 Party on Garth on 10.31.21 at 10:51 am

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Germany’s best-selling tabloid Bild scathingly criticised European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on Saturday, accusing her of destroying the earnings and savings of ordinary people by tolerating a rise in inflation.

German tabloid attacks ECB chief Lagarde as ‘Madam Inflation’

https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-germany-bild/update-1-german-tabloid-attacks-ecb-chief-lagarde-as-madam-inflation-idUSL1N2RQ0EI

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 10:54 am

Investors?
Leveraging Lines of Credit, second mortgages, anything to buy?

Nah.
Idiots would be more accurate.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 11:02 am

This happened at 2pm Saturday on the Trans Canada Highway in Surrey.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/10/30/armoured-truck-accident-in-surrey-leaves-one-dead-one-in-hospital/

Absolutely no mention of this on the 6pm local News or the 11pm News.

Lots of Halloween related drivel and sports….but nothing newsworthy at 6pm.

#5 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 11:05 am

Boo!

You want to be scared on Halloween?

Did you watch the Oil Executives testify in front of House Committee on Oversight and Reform last week?

They have learned from the tobacco industry executives, didn’t they? Not making same dumb mistakes those tobacco guys made either.

But the playbook is exactly the same. Lie. Deceive. All in name of profit.

Exxon did their studies and concluded climate change impact of oil decades ago. (See Road Not Taken: Exxon 1977 studies) Then they lied about it for decades that followed. Hired science to come up with studies to deceive.

You think the slashers in horror movies are psychopaths?

I give you Tobacco executives.
I give you Oil executives.
I give you Big Pharma executives.
I give you Tech executives.
I give you Social Media executives.

Stunning that we tolerate this behaviour and profit at all cost, considering what it means for our future.

Stunning that they get away with it when the stakes are so high. Those stakes? Our children’s survival. Our planet’s survival.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

#6 Honest Realtor on 10.31.21 at 11:11 am

Ooooooooooh Scaaaaaarrrrryyyyyy!

Thanks for the frightening Hallowe’en post, Garth, lol.

But for the next two decades, apart from some minor corrections here and there, the market in major centres looks to be almost entirely Treats, not Tricks.

#7 Papacito on 10.31.21 at 11:16 am

First!!

#8 Linda on 10.31.21 at 11:19 am

Given the signals regarding pending taxation on flip/investor/secondary properties etc. I wonder if the folks buying think that the government won’t follow through? If the idea is to turn a profit, at what point do rising prices cease to offset carrying costs/expenditures associated with owning secondary properties? Also wondering whether the government will apply any possible taxation of investment properties to REITs? Can’t see how they could justify excluding REITs from any taxation legislation meant to curb the purchase of investment properties.

#9 robinhood_canuck on 10.31.21 at 11:21 am

Garth – hypothetically, what do you think the impact would be if an institution (clearly not one of the chartered institutions) were to provide a mortgage for 25-50% of the cost for a typical mortgage?

I believe a typical 20 year amortization is essentially doubling the cost of a house? For example, $1MM house amortized over 20 years = $2MM paid in mortgage costs? Obviously lots of factors to change this calc but holistically pretty accurate?

What would happen to our economy if an organization was able to cut this cost in half or more?

#10 Flag on 10.31.21 at 11:25 am

#72 Jane Finch on 10.31.21 at 5:23 am

Canada has gone belly up. The stench is bothering the neighbors.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-lowered-flags-are-a-symbol-of-a-nation-in-decline

You’re not seeing it clearly perhaps.

The flag is on the way down the mast, toward being taken off the mast as the country is on the way to being dismantled when reconciliation invalidates the treaties and Canada ceases to exist as a country.

When you look at it with this clarity, it should lave you less concerned about the descending position of the flag.

Now, let Trudeau II finish his good work.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 11:30 am

Trudeau’s Halloween costume for the Climate Summit

https://www.saltwire.com/halifax/opinion/bruce-mackinnon-cartoon-faux-green-trudeau-going-to-glasgow-100651849/

#12 Prince Polo on 10.31.21 at 11:34 am

Bring on the mortgage rate increases (and eventual Cdn Bank divvy raises)!!!

Ironically, a certain government entity worries about solvency of the banks (still holding off on giving permission for buybacks and dividend increases), yet no gov’t entity really cares for the plight of housing prices. This is scarier than anything that Hallowe’en will ever bring!

#13 Dogman01 on 10.31.21 at 11:37 am

If Canada’s Interest rate is higher than the US, and Oil prices continue to be high that should mean the Canadian Dollar will climb higher relative to US.

Is this largely a sound conclusion?

#14 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.21 at 11:42 am

Finally!

G20 leaders endorse 15% minimum global corporate tax

Mathias Cormann, secretary general of the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), said that the deal clinched in Rome “will make our international tax arrangements fairer and work better in a digitalized and globalized economy.”
The minimum rate “completely eliminates the incentive for businesses around the world to restructure their affairs to avoid tax

#15 Scary Stuff on 10.31.21 at 11:46 am

Neighbours of mine have recently decided to buy a second property, choosing to use a line of credit to buy another house for them to live in and to renovate their first house to make it suitable as a rental. An immigrant couple, they have worked very hard to give their children a better life and in this, they have been successful to date at great cost to themselves. My guess is that they have seized upon the idea of being able to provide for their own retirement as well as leave something for their children.

Prices may not fall with rising interest rates but they probably won’t be increasing at the rates seen in the past decade. We may well return to the historical average of appreciation in the two to four percent range, relatively neutral when it comes to inflation. Housing in the past was seen as a hedge against inflation. The markets with an historical average of about nine percent were really the better choice.

So people will be stuck with higher interest rates, assets that are not providing the kind of returns they want, and a reduced demand. I say reduced demand because while there may be more ways to save money to buy, getting financing could be more difficult as fewer buyers will likely qualify. Another knock-on effect could be that because lines of credit will most certainly be more expensive, purchases made through them will be curtailed meaning fewer new car will be sold, fewer big ticket items, and fewer renovations will be done.

#16 Reality is stark on 10.31.21 at 11:49 am

The bond vigilantes finally get their day in the sun.
Nothing like an over-indebted Canadian fool to pillage. An irresponsible spending junkie for a prime minister and it’s party time.
The debt gets inflated away but the economy steadily declines as higher interest rates work their magic.
Unfortunately our government is drunk on accumulating debt. The chickens are coming home to roost.
When you lose your job and your house in a couple years you won’t think so highly of our Venezuelan influenced liberal leadership.

#17 tkid on 10.31.21 at 11:56 am

Hi Garth, here’s a suggestion for a future column: the proposed US unrealized capital gains tax and how it would impact Canadians if it was brought north of the border?

#18 the Jaguar on 10.31.21 at 12:08 pm

“And these are not typically big corps or Chinese dudes Hoovering whole floors of new condo complexes. Instead they’re families, sucking off equity from bloated principal residences to “invest” in a condo or two, or amateur landlords happy to rent out with negative cash flow because “prices also ways go up.” – GT ++

Isn’t this an equal opportunity blog, Garth? You left out ‘South Asians’. Pointing that out is not meant to cast aspersions on that particular group or any other, but the elephant in the room on this whole ‘real estate gone mad’ business is immigration. It’s a fact that some cultures value real estate as an investments over financial instruments. Period. Owning 3,4, 5 or more rental properties is not uncommon.

We need immigration. It’s a good thing. But the Census figures and other statistics don’t lie. One hardly needs to consult them anyway if normal powers of observation are in good working order. Think Brampton or Markham. Or Surrey or Burnaby. Many immigrants prefer the big cities to quaint little places like Yorkton, Saskatchewan.

The 2016 Census for Alberta demonstrates this : ” In the 2016 Census, 933,165 Albertans identified themselves as a visible minority, up from 656,325 five years earlier. This represents growth of 42.2%, much faster than the 11.6% growth of the overall population over the same period.” That was 2016.

So, not to be impolitic, but if we want to do a deep dive into all of the reasons real estate has lost its mind, seems to me our changing people landscape is a significant smoking gun. People are free to buy and own multiple properties as a way of securing their financial future, but does it impact the market and availability of housing supply. I think it does. It just is what it is……

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.21 at 12:08 pm

#16 Reality is stark on 10.31.21 at 11:49 am
The bond vigilantes finally get their day in the sun.
Nothing like an over-indebted Canadian fool to pillage. An irresponsible spending junkie for a prime minister and it’s party time.
The debt gets inflated away but the economy steadily declines as higher interest rates work their magic.
Unfortunately our government is drunk on accumulating debt. The chickens are coming home to roost.
When you lose your job and your house in a couple years you won’t think so highly of our Venezuelan influenced liberal leadership.
——————————-
It’s more like the chicken littles like you are coming home to roost.
Go and join the other doomers on the street corner.
But due to high demand, they have run out of “The end is nigh” signs.
Gotta bring your own.

#20 Conspiratard on 10.31.21 at 12:16 pm

Here’s a sign of what’s to come in many sectors:

Toronto Transit Commission hacked:

https://www.cp24.com/news/ttc-investigating-after-hit-by-ransomware-attack-1.5644928

Curiously, this comes just after the announcements about TTC service cuts due to workers not accepting vaccinations being laid off and fired next month.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ttc-says-it-will-place-unvaccinated-employees-on-leave-as-of-nov-21-terminations-to-begin-the-following-month-1.5624876

Hmm.

Insider employees with lots of access to the IT systems. Some getting told they will be laid off, and feeling very pissed off. Nothing to lose, many would feel, I bet.

Then, suddenly, ransomware attacks to those same IT systems. Major disruption to the TTC.

Coincidence? I think not.

I think not.

#21 AntMan on 10.31.21 at 12:19 pm

#12 Prince Polo on 10.31.21 at 11:34 am
Bring on the mortgage rate increases (and eventual Cdn Bank divvy raises)!!!

Ironically, a certain government entity worries about solvency of the banks (still holding off on giving permission for buybacks and dividend increases), yet no gov’t entity really cares for the plight of housing prices. This is scarier than anything that Hallowe’en will ever bring!
——————————————————–

The government entity in question has nothing to say about dividend hikes. OSFI is a sock puppet for the finance minister who is in turn a lapdog (no offence to dogs) for the PM. As we know, the PM has plans of his own for the banks.

#22 earthboundmisfit on 10.31.21 at 12:22 pm

Publishing photos such as this is encouraging animal abuse. Please desist.

She looks like she’s having fun to me. – Garth

#23 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.21 at 12:26 pm

Right on topic.
Just watching a clip on HongKongs Fairchild TV, on how to buy investment properties in Vancouver.
BC, Bring Cash, they recommend.

#24 Quintilian on 10.31.21 at 12:45 pm

It’s interesting.
Yesterday Doug Rawat’s post emphasis was on how it is the unknown that will likely sideswipe you.

Today, Garth using a prosecutor’s methodology, and presentation of the “knowable facts”, to make the case that just maybe, perhaps, but not for sure, it could be that Honest Realtor is wrong.

As we know the “numbers” haven’t made sense for a number of years, yet the mania persists.

Why?

Because the numbers facilitate the mania, but it is not the source.

#25 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 12:45 pm

Brian Mulrony – Great Interview on CTV today

What I took away…

He said Trudeau has done as well anyone could have with the Pandemic.

He said climate change is accepted reality, get with the program. Conservatives have to have a policy to fight climate change. $170 future carbon tax is good policy based on the apparent facts at this time.

He said O’Toole should have kicked anti-vaxers out of caucus. It was a no brainer.

He did have some criticism for Trudeau’s policies – Canada is not living up to NATO or foreign aid commitments it made. Canada cannot be taken seriously when it fails to honor commitments.

I think he said a great thing when he said Leaders have to sometimes tell the population what they NEED to know (climate change is real carbon tax is needed) as opposed to what they WANT to hear (carbon tax is useless, Canada can’t can’t fight climate change we ae too small etc.).

As I have said previously, people believe what they want to believe. (like Tax is theft etc. Government just wastes the money). We need leaders to speak hard and unpopular truths. Like maybe, yes we need higher taxes to deal with the debt and yes we need a higher carbon tax to discourage carbon spewing and do our part for the world.

#26 Cat I Loved on 10.31.21 at 12:58 pm

22 earthboundmisfit

Remember, every coin has two sides. The 2nd side of this coin is qualification of individual that would:

a) Buy this outfit.
b) Subject an animal to it.
c) Publicly boast about it.

It makes filtering associates so easy.

Therefore, I appreciate the time saving efforts by this group, and which is why I support it fully.

It does me no harm, and saves me time.

As you say, harms the animal, but they were harmed by being bought/sold into human possession in the first place. As are all pets.

#27 Sail Away on 10.31.21 at 1:07 pm

#5 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 11:05 am

You think the slashers in horror movies are psychopaths?

I give you Tobacco executives.
I give you Oil executives.
I give you Big Pharma executives.
I give you Tech executives.
I give you Social Media executives.

——–

So… all the people you are not?

How unique.

#28 DON on 10.31.21 at 1:08 pm

Investors can stop investing at any point at least with new home buyers there is a long term need.

So.. at the moment the bubble is being propped up by people that don’t really need to buy and move…hmmm. Makes perfect sense why Mayor !?1aa,!!!!!LStew (‘in Langford) and the realtors offering prize downpayments in Qualicum / Parksville. Sellers are also competing with new rental apartments coming online as the push to build large apartment blocks is being realized. Not just Langford but Parksville also. Another variable takes center stage as carrying costs increase. Running out on band aides and saturated investors?

I would take a nice new apartment over an old basement suite if I were younger and wanted to be around the scene. The prices are comparable.

Yikes! I predict scooby treats will be in high demand in 6 months.

#29 FriedEggs on 10.31.21 at 1:08 pm

Monsters are real.

#30 Dolce Vita on 10.31.21 at 1:23 pm

Logical. Compelling discussion.

I look to history as it inevitably repeats.

In PANDEMIC PARLANCE:

Since 1975 the Cdn RE virus has spread and even during rate increase lockdowns, the lockdowns had to be large and prolonged to beat down new cases.

“Cases” in Point, Lockdown Periods vs. New Cases:

1977-81
Rates (Variable, Fixed 5 yr) increased over the period by 11.25%
Price dropped by 18.6% from peak during 1981-84

1987-90
Rates +4.75%
Price -9.1%, 1989-92

1997-00
Rates +2.75%
Price +26.1%, 2000-05 [antigravity]

2004-07
Rates +2%
Price -2.6%, 2008-09

2016-19
Rates +1.25%
Price -1.3%, 2018-19

—————–

History teaches us that the Cdn RE virus needs to be CLUBBED OVER THE HEAD with huge rate increases for prices to drop and NOT ALWAYS does that work (1997-00). And the LAG TIME for price drops can be by up to 5 years.

Garth, I don’t believe that a +1.5% difference in rates over the past month or so will stop the Cdn RE virus if history repeats.

And Inflation varied from 1975 to 1991 from a low of 4% to a high of 12.5%.

You could be correct Garth, witness the 1997-00 price antigravity effect, it is not out of the realm of possibility…though, the pickings since 1975 = Slim (and Nil left town).

#31 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 1:28 pm

#27 Sail Away

So… all the people you are not?

How unique.

——–

Correct.

I guess I just don’t have enough selfish money worshiping psychopath in me.

But worry not, there are plenty for you to cheer for, idolize and model after.

Like these guys, who deny poor countries the vaccines. I wonder why POOR wouldn’t matter?

>
Even as vast regions of the world experience a rapid rise in COVID cases and deaths, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold more than 90 percent of their vaccines to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production, according to analysis by the Alliance based on work by MRNA scientists at Imperial college.

Analysis of production techniques for the leading mRNA type vaccines produced by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, which were only developed thanks to public funding to the tune of $8.3 billion, suggest these vaccines could be made for as little as $1.20 a dose.

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 1:34 pm

@#29 Fried Eggs

“Monsters are real.

****
Yes.
They avoid mirrors, rarely leave the basement, wrap themselves in cloaks of political correctness, …..so you don’t realize they are actually … vampires.
Sucking the life out of anything they disagree with.

#33 Leichendiener on 10.31.21 at 1:37 pm

# Nope. Vulnerable computer operating system.

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 1:43 pm

@#80 Shawn Allen
“About unions in Cape Breton.

What you said sounds right. I took it a little easy on them because I still have friends and family there.”

+++

Gotcha.

Everytime I go to Cape Breton for a visit I’m amazed at the scenery and the people are super friendly.

Just don’t talk about politics( Billy Joe MacLean comes to mind), new companies and jobs, EI or govt handouts……

“Gimme anudder beer Bye”, seems to go over well.

#35 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 1:58 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 1:34 pm
@#29 Fried Eggs

“Monsters are real.

****
Yes.
They avoid mirrors, rarely leave the basement, wrap themselves in cloaks of political correctness, …..so you don’t realize they are actually … vampires.
Sucking the life out of anything they disagree with.
****
Really? They are the vampires?

Not the ones sucking money from you? Selling you vaccines at 24x the price? Sucking $700 (35-40x the cost) out of your wallet for a Covid treatment drugs?

crowdedelevatorfartz, you’ve lost perspective, touch and clarity. You can call me a leach, but a vampire I am not. That level of blood sucking evil is reserved for those previously highlighted. Wasn’t enough for you? Here is more…

>
Furthermore, despite benefiting from $8.3 billion of public investment in the development of their vaccines, the US companies have not paid their fair share of taxes. In the first half of 2021, Moderna paid a 7% US tax rate and Pfizer paid a 15% tax rate, well below the US statutory rate of 21%. The low tax rates paid by these US corporations point to a broken and dysfunctional tax system that allows corporations earning billions of dollars to pay a significantly lower tax rate than working families in the US. BioNTech, a German startup that produced the recipe for the Pfizer vaccine, paid a significantly higher tax rate of 31% tax rate in Germany while reaping a 77% profit margin.

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.21 at 2:01 pm

Regarding PE Island.
I kinda miss the CBC specials where the featured Irish and Scotish folksongs.
Just loved it.
Simple people living the simple life.
And then came CEF chastising them for not being like him. A grouch.

#37 Dolce Vita on 10.31.21 at 2:02 pm

In the non-ending saga of:

YOU DID IT TO YOURSELVES CANADA

So you have all these Cdns running around trying to sop up RE as an investment, 2+ homes.

This is how their investing has done since 1975 start year (+ other start years) to the end year of 1Q2021 Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), S&P 500 CAGR for the same period follows in brackets:

1975 = 2.32% (8.4%)
1980 = 2.58% (8.6%)
1990 = 2.83% (7.9%)
2000 = 3.46% (4.8%)
2015 = 4.22% (10.8%)
2020 = 7.11% (18.4%)

——————-

If the multiple investors invested in the S&P 500 they would be farther ahead by a long country mile and RE prices would not be astronomical as they are today.

Investment lunacy. If you really love dirt that much, rent it off of someone else that cannot do the most basic of financial calculations, per the above.

Ya, you did it to yourselves Canada…and continue to do so.

#38 Dolce Vita on 10.31.21 at 2:14 pm

Honest to God Garth, you are SO correct about BNN.

GDP goes up 0.4% in August. 15/20 Sectors up.

StatCan goes on to say “that real GDP was essentially unchanged in September” and preliminary until the September GDP report date of November 30.

BNN Headline:

“Canada’s economy wobbles amid supply bottlenecks”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-economy-wobbles-amid-supply-bottlenecks-1.1673920

—————–

Joyless. Glass half empty. See bad even in good (as in the economy did not shrink).

#39 Doug t on 10.31.21 at 2:19 pm

Here’s hoping that these “investors” learn a HARD lesson in the near future

#40 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.31.21 at 2:45 pm

And why, may I ask, are profits considered evil?

#41 Dolce Vita on 10.31.21 at 2:57 pm

#22 earthboundmisfit

Well, the Pink Chiffon Bridal Industry would say your comment is abusive.

Ipso facto.

#42 TurnerNation on 10.31.21 at 3:07 pm

We are so screwed.
T2’s new cabinet appointees are basically the UN Wrecking Crew. Taking down what’s left of this country. And I can only imagine that Our Enemies are trembling in fear over the new military appointee.
Think $3-4 litre gas prices. Over the top inflation. Winding down of industry. We gonna need a UBI.
Driving people off their land and SFH by some or all of: karbon taxes/energy audits/land reconcillation/climate mandates – and generally making homes no longer insurable. They’ll find a way.

The Virtual Berlin Wall/armed checkpoints still in force on the Least Coast. After 2 years shall we call this permanent? A DMZ – eat your heart out North and South Korea.
That cold week March 2020 we fell – the bloodless coup. So easy. Our Red colour revolution Comrades.

Now we just sit back and await Sir Blog Dog Carney dropping the E-currency and UBI.
(We just need…a crisis big enough right?)

We’ve already been divided into the New System. Essential/Non Essential. V or Un-V. POC or not. Pro V/Anti V. Pro lockdown/Anti lockdown.
Let the Games begin. As we tear other apart – while our elite rulers look on a roar with laughter at this sport.

#43 PBrasseur on 10.31.21 at 3:18 pm

This market is going south no questions, inflation is here and it is nasty!

Speaking of south Zillow has stopped buying houses and in many places is currently listing at a loss…

https://youtu.be/mI1vjY9LlTM

#44 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.31.21 at 3:23 pm

TN… You’re giving these guys too much credit. They have to be the most useless bunch of imbeciles in the history of federal government.

The only intelligent one of the bunch, they jettisoned back to outer space…

They’ll talk, they’ll posture, but they’ll do zip.

#45 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 3:47 pm

Visiting Cape Breton?

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 1:43 pm
@#80 Shawn Allen
“About unions in Cape Breton.

What you said sounds right. I took it a little easy on them because I still have friends and family there.”

+++

Gotcha.

Everytime I go to Cape Breton for a visit I’m amazed at the scenery and the people are super friendly.

************************
Thank you. Anyone visiting Cape Breton be sure to stop at my family’s restaurant / Motel in North Sydney. The Clansman.

They do a booming restaurant business due to good prices and friendly service.

#46 TurnerNation on 10.31.21 at 3:55 pm

– Life in Kanada.

.Cost of dairy products could spike as Canadian commission recommends price increase (www.ctvnews.ca)

— What’s really going on? BC..the province which put Japanese Canadians into camps during WW2.
Everything old is new again…

October 29th, 2021- https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/health/about-bc-s-health-care-system/office-of-the-provincial-health-officer/covid-19/covid-19-pho-order-face-coverings.pdf
…”with a view to balancing the interests of the people affected by the Order, including constitutionally protected interests, against the risk of harm to residents of BC created by the presence of unvaccinated persons in BC;”


— Allmost over guys! Back to normal…soooon.
All the old culture must be torn down Comrade. Your life is CV, CV rules.

.Booster shot now advised for Canadians who received two shots of AstraZeneca vaccine (nationalpost.com)

.Plan for third doses for ‘all Ontarians’ expected next week (toronto.ctvnews.ca)



USA: once the First Responders close then your home, business will become uninsurable. Of course our elites will scoop those up – for pennies on the dollar. Wars fought over land. This WW3 is no exception.
Children never shall know normalcy in this New System.

.FDNY firehouses shuttered over vaccine staffing shortages (nypost.com)

.White House outlines plans to increase COVID-19 testing in schools (fox5ny.com)

.New York state health care workers will no longer have religious exemption to Covid-19 vaccine mandate, court rules (cnn.com)

.American Airlines cancels more than 700 flights, citing “weather and staffing issues”
(www.cnbc.com)

World:

.Third Chinese city placed under Covid-19 lockdown (scmp.com)

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 4:07 pm

@#36 Ponzies Perplexing Psilocybin Prattle
“And then came CEF chastising them for not being like him.”

+++

Ummm.
I’ve been talking about Cape Breton Nova Scotia and now you drag Prince Edward Island into it?

You should give the mushroom tea a break.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 4:10 pm

@#35 Its all an evil act
“crowdedelevatorfartz, you’ve lost perspective, touch and clarity. You can call me a leach, but a vampire I am not.

++++

Don’t recall talking to you at all but if the evil drug companies off you some Paranoid pills for free….
Take ’em.

#49 Paul on 10.31.21 at 4:16 pm

If The government were to lower The inclusion rate, I would be prompted to sell and realize some capital gains. If it goes, up I’m not selling until the next government brings it back down.

Assuming I’m not the only one that thinks this way, I would think revenues could potentially be higher due to more volume. Otherwise HODL

#50 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 4:21 pm

Stop Lying about House Price gains since 1975

This is how their investing has done since 1975 start year (+ other start years) to the end year of 1Q2021 Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), S&P 500 CAGR for the same period follows in brackets:

1975 = 2.32% (8.4%)

*****************************
Dolce Vita, usually you have credible and useful figures…

But a couple of us have called you out about that completely unbelievable non credible claim that home prices in Canada have compounded up at 2.32% since 1975 on average.

I asked is that was a real return versus nominal dollars.

Some of us were around in 1975. 2.32% means a $100,000 house in 1975 went to only $287,200 today. I’m not sure there many $100k houses even in Toronto in 1975. Your number is bull.

What say you to that?

#51 Doug in London on 10.31.21 at 4:27 pm

I wonder why these investors haven’t sold off any second or third properties recently to take their profits, like how I’ve taken profits on oil company stocks and ETFs I bought early last year. That would make more sense.

#52 Billy Buoy on 10.31.21 at 4:46 pm

Did anyone else see the CDIC commercial today stating:

Bank defaults are rare. Be secure knowing you are protected.

Question: Has Canada EVER had a bank default? If no, why The commercial on prime time Sunday football?

Too many people hoarding cash at home OR foreshadowing a potential very low but possible possibly?

Very very very odd yet has me wondering the purpose.

#53 Dolce Vista on 10.31.21 at 4:48 pm

But Garth, you don’t understand … it’s little Italy!

And like most things in Italy… it’s little, not to mention, annoying.

#54 ION on 10.31.21 at 4:53 pm

What we have:
– More people coming into the big cities
– Still a huge demand in the rental market
– Increase in the wages (remember a year ago when you said this won’t happen?)
– Some of the families are very indebted (but not all of them)
– Rising rates.

So if the very indebted will get higher wages when they renew, eeeeeverything will be tip-top.

We had a similar scenario when rates were going up in 2018 and the market was… going up too.

I give a probability of 70% the prices will be higher next year than they are today. Even with higher rates.

#55 Re-Cowtown on 10.31.21 at 5:07 pm

#5 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 11:05 am
Boo!

You want to be scared on Halloween?

Did you watch the Oil Executives testify in front of House Committee on Oversight and Reform last week?

They have learned from the tobacco industry executives, didn’t they? Not making same dumb mistakes those tobacco guys made either.

But the playbook is exactly the same. Lie. Deceive. All in name of profit.

Exxon did their studies and concluded climate change impact of oil decades ago. (See Road Not Taken: Exxon 1977 studies) Then they lied about it for decades that followed. Hired science to come up with studies to deceive.

You think the slashers in horror movies are psychopaths?

I give you Tobacco executives.
I give you Oil executives.
I give you Big Pharma executives.
I give you Tech executives.
I give you Social Media executives.

Stunning that we tolerate this behaviour and profit at all cost, considering what it means for our future.

Stunning that they get away with it when the stakes are so high. Those stakes? Our children’s survival. Our planet’s survival.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I am. The Climate Emergency Cabal can’t do math. They have no idea that what they’re asking for will kill millions of people through starvation, depravation and cold.

However, I’m totally in favor of you doing a two step experiment this winter to enlighten us all:

1. Turn off your furnace
2. Don’t buy any goods or services that are delivered by fossil fuel powered vehicles.

If you’re still alive by Spring, please write in and share your experiences with us all.

#56 Wrk.dover on 10.31.21 at 5:10 pm

#77 Tired on 10.31.21 at 10:36 am
Wrk.dover

I’ve found the best way to get an idea of vinyl prices is Discogs.com
__________________________________

That is very helpful advice.

Dollar per hour return in this cult must be brutally low.
The bulk of my surplus will make a flipper very happy from what I see.

#57 Quintilian on 10.31.21 at 5:15 pm

“If The government were to lower The inclusion rate, I would be prompted to sell and realize some capital gains. If it goes, up I’m not selling until the next government brings it back down.

Assuming I’m not the only one that thinks this way, I would think revenues could potentially be higher due to more volume. Otherwise HODL”

Please do hold on.

It would confirm the theory of the frog staying in the pot until it slowly boils to death.

#58 OK, Doomer on 10.31.21 at 5:19 pm

One thing that is either baffling or enlightening about the Glasgow Climate fest is that private jets are exempt from greenhouse gas emission standards.

If this is a mistake, it’s an egregious one.

If it isn’t, it tells you exactly what the elites think of themselves, and of you.

#59 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.31.21 at 5:23 pm

IT IS ALL SO AMUSING!
The modern cult thinking, which is running rampant today,(that truly boggles my mind), the belief that there are no consequences to carrying a massive debt load. This must afford some gratification to the uncounted numbers of unfinished minds desperately searching for a great lie to believe in, Real Estate always goes up. For the lie shall set them free of conscience and personal responsibility. For the greybeards who experienced the Real estate bust in the roaring 80’s it is all so amusing. Delusional thinking crosses my mind. History really does repeat itself. Amen Brother.

#60 Adam on 10.31.21 at 5:35 pm

So everything in the world is going to go up in price except houses? Who cares about an extra $200 a month in mortgage payments. We’re way passed that. Besides, that dishwasher is now making $1,000 a month extra, so $200 is nothing. I don’t see how we can be in a massive inflationary environment where dishwashers are getting “signing bonuses” but house prices drop. Canada doesn’t have enough housing per capita – end of story. Only way to reduce housing prices is by building insane amounts of housing which isn’t going to happen. Prices will go up and so will everything else. What this blog should be talking about is how much steaks cost. Seriously Garth, a 3 pack of striploins is like $65 at Costco now. Good thing I only eat $1.99 hot dogs at the food court.

Greta says to eat tofu. – Garth

#61 Android on 10.31.21 at 5:37 pm

Remember, it’s Mr. Bond Market that sets mortgage fixed rates. Not the Bank of Canada. Not the government. 

So, who are Mr. Bond market?

#62 Barb on 10.31.21 at 5:45 pm

Candy’s adorable!
Yet another wonderful breed whose purchase should include a new Dyson.

#63 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 5:47 pm

Bank Defaults and CDIC?

#52 Billy Buoy on 10.31.21 at 4:46 pm
Did anyone else see the CDIC commercial today stating:

Bank defaults are rare. Be secure knowing you are protected.

Question: Has Canada EVER had a bank default? If no, why The commercial on prime time Sunday football?

Too many people hoarding cash at home OR foreshadowing a potential very low but possible possibly?

Very very very odd yet has me wondering the purpose.

**********************************
Well, there have definitely been some bank failures in Canada. Apparently only two “bank” failures since 1923

In 1985 Canadian Commercial Bank of Edmonton and the Calgary-based Northland Bank both failed.

And some other CDIC insured deposit-taking institutions have failed, apparently most recently was this one…

” On June 4, 1996, about 2,600 Canadians discovered that their savings were not immediately available from their financial institution. They had entrusted a total of $42 million in deposits to Calgary-based Security Home Mortgage Corporation, which had closed its doors for good.”

Why would CDIC advertise? Well, it collects money and has to do something with it. And it behooves it to let people know that its limit is $100k per account. In general it has to justify its existence. How would you like to be its CEO or employee and no one had heard of the outfit? That would not be good for self-esteem.

#64 BillyBob on 10.31.21 at 5:47 pm

My favourite bit of shameless hypocrisy today: Charlie Manson lookalike Stephen Guilbeault tweeting a pic of himself taking a train to Copout 26.

Cause, y’know, he took a train from Canada to Glasgow. Not a beautiful carbon-emitting airliner piloted with Science and Expertise.

Funniest part is, given the typical IQ the vast majority of Twitter-readers will think that’s actually the case.

Toot toot! All aboard the train from Montreal to Scotland!

smh

https://twitter.com/s_guilbeault/status/1454860229548646409?s=20

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 5:49 pm

@#60 Adam
“Good thing I only eat $1.99 hot dogs at the food court.”

+++

They have $1.99 hotdogs at the food court?
I’m in!

Speaking of healthy eating.
I saw a 20 something kid yesterday at the Safeway.
Filthy, skinny as a rake.
His basket of food?
Haagen Daas ice cream, Boost energy drink, two boxes of Kraft Dinner, a 2liter Pepsi and a bag of potato chips.
Musta had a hot date.
My salad veggies just didn’t seem quite so appealing after viewing that 3 course meal with dessert.

#66 Exodus 2020 on 10.31.21 at 5:49 pm

What happens to oil during inflation? If oil goes up, does the depressed Alberta real estate market go up while the inflated real estate prices in Toronto and Vancouver come down? What about rents? Gotta live somewhere!

#67 Curious on 10.31.21 at 5:50 pm

#25 Shawn Allen
I think he said a great thing when he said Leaders have to sometimes tell the population what they NEED to know (climate change is real carbon tax is needed) as opposed to what they WANT to hear (carbon tax is useless, Canada can’t can’t fight climate change we ae too small etc.).
——————————————
Instead of spending time and effort on Canadians being taxed to reduce Carbon emissions and other efforts, ( who emit 2-3% worlds carbon)why not increase our efforts to pressure on the big polluters, such as China, India and Russia to reduce. What we are doing , essentially, is “pissing in the wind.” Why is this so difficult? If those big polluters cut their emissions by half, what a difference it would make..

#68 Trudi on 10.31.21 at 5:59 pm

…having bought in 2013 and quite content where I am…no debt house or otherwise… I wish the young ones luck…they are gonna need it.

#69 Nonplused on 10.31.21 at 6:05 pm

#17 tkid on 10.31.21 at 11:56 am
Hi Garth, here’s a suggestion for a future column: the proposed US unrealized capital gains tax and how it would impact Canadians if it was brought north of the border?

——————————————

Don’t worry about it so much. An “unrealized” anything is just a guess about the future. It is just about as real as a lottery ticket before the draw.

Although now that I think about it taxing lottery tickets before the draw could be answer to all our problems! There are a lot of potential $60,000,000 winning tickets out there on Thursday. The trick is to just tax them all before Friday rolls around.

Heck the government should send out the lottery tickets for free! Along with a tax bill on the potential winnings of course. Problem solved! I can’t believe nobody ever thought of this before, it’s so simple.

#70 Nonplused on 10.31.21 at 6:07 pm

#5 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 11:05 am

Stop buying their products.

#71 Quintilian on 10.31.21 at 6:08 pm

#61 Android
“So, who are Mr. Bond market?”

Incredibly powerful group, that without coordinating with one another, ( as some conspiracy nut jobs claim), can nonetheless extort high prices even from the all powerful central bankers.

#72 Nonplused on 10.31.21 at 6:16 pm

#58 OK, Doomer on 10.31.21 at 5:19 pm
One thing that is either baffling or enlightening about the Glasgow Climate fest is that private jets are exempt from greenhouse gas emission standards.

If this is a mistake, it’s an egregious one.

If it isn’t, it tells you exactly what the elites think of themselves, and of you.

————————————

It’s more a matter of the fact that it is easy to talk about the climate and CO2 and put on a good show, but when it is time to get the plane in the air it is physics. Different engines have different efficiencies but in the end of the day the only “green house gas emission standard” you can have on an airplane is to leave it on the ground.

#73 J on 10.31.21 at 6:26 pm

This is in regard to comment number five.
So would you prefer that all the companies close down all the oil production.
How many deaths would there have been without oil remember there’s no heat no medicine no supplies may we could go on and on till there’s an alternative then we can pick on them. Until then we need them and should be embracing them.

#74 cuke and tomato picker on 10.31.21 at 6:53 pm

Shawn Allen number 25 correct our prime minister is doing a good job also our government does have to be more blunt with people and tell them the facts in order to solve the issues we Canadians face even though it will be uncomfortable in the short term life will be better for all of us in the long run. We are all in it for the long haul which will have some bumps in the road on the way to a smooth ride for ALL.

#75 willworkforpickles on 10.31.21 at 7:08 pm

So signing bonuses at the low end of the wage scale there with wage increases at the top end along with current mass shortages of goods are driving inflation through the roof. This along with the previous monetary cash flood into the system all with oncoming tsunami proportions.

It looks like those signing bonuses for the most part aren’t real wage increases like those at the top end of the scale, but inflation spirals with them in terms of consumer price hikes.

The middle poor and poor alike will only continue to get the shaft as inflation spirals upwards and the ultimate need for historical normalized interest rates are forced into play.

Employers don’t pay workers more without raising the price on everything all in calibrated lockstep.

#76 mark on 10.31.21 at 7:09 pm

No it’s not, perfect storm.
Tighten for two years then rates in ditch again and government capitulation…

#77 Yukon Elvis on 10.31.21 at 7:14 pm

#59 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.31.21 at 5:23 pm

For the greybeards who experienced the Real estate bust in the roaring 80’s it is all so amusing. Delusional thinking crosses my mind. History really does repeat itself. Amen Brother.
++++++++++++++++++++
I am one of those greybeards. I remember it well. But it is different this time. IMHO. Interest rates are lower and will never return to 80’s levels. Higher immigration levels which will only increase not decrease thus keeping demand high. Back in the 80’s we were all broke, a tidal wave of new money has been created in recent years. Lots of money/equity out there. I think at best/worst we get a wee pullback or maybe no pullback at all and a plateau for a few years. I don’t see any major adjustments in the housing market down the road. IMHO.

#78 Blobby on 10.31.21 at 7:22 pm

Surely it’ll just cycle. First rates will go up, then property values will start to come down, this will cause a recession, and all the recent home buyers will blame government for letting their “investment” (people rarely take responsibility for their actions)

No government would want to be in power during a property down turn (and certainly not a crash).. so.. back to emergency rates and stimulus spending, etc.

And we return back to where we are now.. and people start gouging themselves on low rate mortgages..

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.21 at 7:23 pm

#55 Re-Cowtown on 10.31.21 at 5:07 pm
#5 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 11:05 am
Boo!

You want to be scared on Halloween?

Did you watch the Oil Executives testify in front of House Committee on Oversight and Reform last week?

They have learned from the tobacco industry executives, didn’t they? Not making same dumb mistakes those tobacco guys made either.

But the playbook is exactly the same. Lie. Deceive. All in name of profit.

Exxon did their studies and concluded climate change impact of oil decades ago. (See Road Not Taken: Exxon 1977 studies) Then they lied about it for decades that followed. Hired science to come up with studies to deceive.

You think the slashers in horror movies are psychopaths?

I give you Tobacco executives.
I give you Oil executives.
I give you Big Pharma executives.
I give you Tech executives.
I give you Social Media executives.

Stunning that we tolerate this behaviour and profit at all cost, considering what it means for our future.

Stunning that they get away with it when the stakes are so high. Those stakes? Our children’s survival. Our planet’s survival.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I am. The Climate Emergency Cabal can’t do math. They have no idea that what they’re asking for will kill millions of people through starvation, depravation and cold.

However, I’m totally in favor of you doing a two step experiment this winter to enlighten us all:

1. Turn off your furnace
2. Don’t buy any goods or services that are delivered by fossil fuel powered vehicles.

If you’re still alive by Spring, please write in and share your experiences with us all.
—————-
I always keep my thermostat at a balmy 10 degrees.
My native made Anorak comes into action only when my knuckles get blue.
And I have to tell ya, I sleep much better in Winter than in Summer.
As for the groceries, my neighborhood grocery delivers all my organic groceries by bike.
Gotta go with the times, my friend.
And BTW, just planted a bunch of daffodils and tulips.
Looking forward to spring, like so many before.

#80 Re-Cowtown on 10.31.21 at 7:25 pm

As I said in an earlier thread, the World Elite are crappy at math and now you can add science to their dishonor roll

https://notrickszone.com/#sthash.NErzfnQa.dpbs

For those who don’t want to read the article, the gist is that the Sun is the main climate driver and CO2 plays but a minimal role.

Our Masters are busy arguing about CO2 even though it has has been experimentally verified as being de minimus by researchers who understand how scientific things like experiments, repeatibility of results and testing works.

Unfortunately, new scientific findings won’t stop the Masters from going all in as the new religion demands sacrifice and appeasement.

Welcome to the New Millennial Religion. Even the Pope worships at this altar. It makes sense though, as all of the leaders are involved in the same type of ecumenical argument as to how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

And that is what religions are all about.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.31.21 at 7:32 pm

#72 Nonplused on 10.31.21 at 6:16 pm
#58 OK, Doomer on 10.31.21 at 5:19 pm
One thing that is either baffling or enlightening about the Glasgow Climate fest is that private jets are exempt from greenhouse gas emission standards.

If this is a mistake, it’s an egregious one.

If it isn’t, it tells you exactly what the elites think of themselves, and of you.

————————————

It’s more a matter of the fact that it is easy to talk about the climate and CO2 and put on a good show, but when it is time to get the plane in the air it is physics. Different engines have different efficiencies but in the end of the day the only “green house gas emission standard” you can have on an airplane is to leave it on the ground.
———–
Be patient my friends. 
It’s coming.
I heard that Macron’s jet runs on used veggie oil.

#82 Dr V on 10.31.21 at 7:35 pm

50 Shawn – it’s “Dolce math” and i wouldnt bother.

35 Do evil Act

“…..so you don’t realize they are actually … vampires.”

Yeah? Ya gonna do somethin’ about it?? I’d take ya out back but I’m kinda busy tonight.

PS – not really a Dr…..

#83 Dogman01 on 10.31.21 at 7:36 pm

#5 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 11:05 am

You think the slashers in horror movies are psychopaths?
I give you Tobacco executives.
I give you Oil executives.
I give you Big Pharma executives.
I give you Tech executives.
I give you Social Media executives.
———————————-

It is the consumers whom have the moral obligation to stop, not the suppliers.

Only addicts have a valid argument that they are not culpable.

So just stop using this stuff, and depending on your moral superiority\purity do not get a nicotine patch to get off the tobacco,… as that would be big pharma.

Our society populated by a Naïve ship of fools disconnected from just about everything. Farming, mineral extraction, transportation, logging, fishing, infrastructure- all the industries that keep them going are mostly un acknowledged by the people who depend on them most.

#84 millenlial on 10.31.21 at 7:43 pm

I have complete faith that the Prime Minister will protect us as he has from Covid and losing our jobs. It wasn’t our choice to be forced into buying a home. Previous generations had cheap housing, we don’t and shouldn’t be expected to be blamed for any issues that arise from it.

#85 Reality Check on 10.31.21 at 7:43 pm

Reminds me of Ontario in the late 1980s. Everybody was buying second and third property to rent out. Seemed like a no brainer as prices where going up 10-15% annually. Fast forward to the early1990s when GDP growth stalled and interest rates ramped up. Left a a lot of those amateur landlords with vacant properties and higher mortgage renewal rates. Many lost everything and it took a decade for Ontario real estate to recover. But now real estate only goes up, right?

#86 Joseph R. on 10.31.21 at 7:52 pm

#64 BillyBob on 10.31.21 at 5:47 pm
My favourite bit of shameless hypocrisy today: Charlie Manson lookalike Stephen Guilbeault tweeting a pic of himself taking a train to Copout 26.

Cause, y’know, he took a train from Canada to Glasgow. Not a beautiful carbon-emitting airliner piloted with Science and Expertise.

Funniest part is, given the typical IQ the vast majority of Twitter-readers will think that’s actually the case.

Toot toot! All aboard the train from Montreal to Scotland!

smh

https://twitter.com/s_guilbeault/status/1454860229548646409?s=20
———————————————————————-

Further proof the Earth is flat. Further proof the Liberals elites are lying to you.

Now, you understand why Trump used Twitter extensively and not the MSM!

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 7:58 pm

@#65 BillyBob
“…. Charlie Manson lookalike Stephen Guilbeault …

++++

I’m stealing that…..

” Stevie G, carbon killer….”
:)

#88 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 8:00 pm

Brian Mulroney

#67 Curious on 10.31.21 at 5:50 pm
#25 Shawn Allen
I think he said a great thing when he said Leaders have to sometimes tell the population what they NEED to know (climate change is real carbon tax is needed) as opposed to what they WANT to hear (carbon tax is useless, Canada can’t can’t fight climate change we ae too small etc.).
——————————————
Instead of spending time and effort on Canadians being taxed to reduce Carbon emissions and other efforts, ( who emit 2-3% worlds carbon)why not increase our efforts to pressure on the big polluters, such as China, India and Russia to reduce. What we are doing , essentially, is “pissing in the wind.” Why is this so difficult? If those big polluters cut their emissions by half, what a difference it would make..

***********************
Actually Brian Mulroney said do both. He thinks the western world needs to approach China collectively with one voice. He said similar to how the West basically sent Ronald Regan to deal with the USSR and it worked to end the nuclear arms race. No small thing…

We can’t even credibly ask China to curb coal if we are not doing even more ourselves.

I am liking this Brian Mulroney. (And I voted for his party in 84, 88 and most times since)

Brian imposed two unpopular but needed and good things on Canada. Free Trade and GST. I think Garth was one of his MPs for both of those?

#89 tbone on 10.31.21 at 8:04 pm

The little dog looks ridiculous . I hope his doggie friends dont see him in that dress .

#90 Blobby on 10.31.21 at 8:25 pm

@88 tbone:

How do you know the dog identifies as a he? Maybe it likes looking fab?

#91 Doug t on 10.31.21 at 8:27 pm

#75 cuke and tomatoes

Brother you must be smoking Crack- your comments always come across as if your rose colored glasses are staple gunned on permanently

#92 Wrk.dover on 10.31.21 at 8:42 pm

#50 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 4:21 pm
I’m not sure there many $100k houses even in Toronto in 1975.
___________________________________

I know a couple that bought the absolute bottom offering on MLS at some point in 77 or 78.

It was a caving in rowhouse a mile west of ‘The Junction’, for 38 or 40 grand. About 1.5X annual earnings for them.

Now thinking about it though, I recall my parents sold their excellent Prince Edward Drive South neighborhood digs for around 100 in 76. A neighbor sold an inferior house for 140 a year later.

Dolce is right about the original price, though his compounding is goofy.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 8:42 pm

@#79 Ponzie’s Psychic Porta Potty Planting
“And BTW, just planted a bunch of daffodils and tulips.
Looking forward to spring, like so many before.”

+++

I’m a bit freaked out.
Ponzie and I were both planting daffodils and tulips today…

Did you use bone meal or did you really go green and rely on your own fertilizer from the Porta Potty?

#94 Joseph R. on 10.31.21 at 8:44 pm

#88 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 8:00 pm
Brian imposed two unpopular but needed and good things on Canada. Free Trade and GST. I think Garth was one of his MPs for both of those?

—————————————————————

Both GST and Free Trade are related. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) did not allow for the Manufactured Goods Tax to continue.

That tax was 13% and invisible to the end-user. When Parliament repealed the Manufactured Goods tax and introduced the GST (7%), he wanted to make sure the end-user (you) would know how much of his (your) money goes to the government and therefore, become more politically active.

You can judge if it worked or not.

#95 Steve French on 10.31.21 at 8:49 pm

Uh oh..

What’s the pronoun of the dog…

Errrrr…..

Gulp.

Say the wrong answer and you’re fired from your job, canceled on twitter, tarred and feathered, and hauled up to the Human Rights Commission.

Smoking Man would be outraged.

#96 tbone on 10.31.21 at 9:15 pm

90 Blobby

It is a she , i just read the blurb.
So its gender correct .
Still aint right .

#97 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 9:42 pm

#83 Dogman01

Agreed Dogman01. We vote with our wallets. I certainly do. However, while I have made the appropriate adjustments to reflect my views, this is not a possibility for many unfortunately. Why? Because the lobby efforts have ensured it to be so and have limited their choices significantly.

Our transit system sucks. It took forever to put new subways online. GO is a joke compared to RAR or any local European system. Etc. etc. etc.

This was all done to limit our choices and force is into the most likely path of sitting in traffic alone in a car. Traffic jams are oil companies wet dream!

Even these electric cars, I’m not so sure they are such a disturbance to oil. They still need to be manufactured, shipped, etc. I’m sure plenty of oil is used in their building process. Then these batteries – the amount of distance and cycles you can get out of them, they need to be replaced after 150,000km – quite wasteful.

But then again…who drives a petrol car past that distance? I remember when people used to squeeze 250,000km+ from cars. Today, these things last about 150,000km, like the batteries. We have technology to do better. Don’t get me started on power generation costs. I’m quite sure our vehicles should not be nuclear powered.

#82 Dr V

Not really a Dr? So at least you’re a V?

#79 Ponzius Pilatus

Yup, you definitely minimize your impact. It is on the individual, without doubt. We are collectively individually indifferent and wasteful, mostly. We don’t give thought to anything meaningful – plastics, daily use of coffee cups, waste, oil usage, idling cars, travel/flights, etc. etc. etc. We have no idea what it means for power to be out overnight because generation is limited. But we may find out soon.

#70 Nonplused

As per above. Doing my best! Everybody, join in!

#55 Re-Cowtown

I won’t bore you with the brag, but I’ve done a lot to minimize my footprint. Sacrifices made. Initially challenging, now…just what we do.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz

Forgive the sensitivity. I’m not myself on Halloween.

#98 Drinking on 10.31.21 at 9:43 pm

#79 Ponzius Pilatus

Better yet; have them all shipped off to a deserted cooler island naked; provide them with two sheep so that they can somehow churn wool with no tools or tools they have to develop. I am guessing the first thing that they would need is heat, let them rub those sticks together until they run out of life saving trees that do so much for our planet/climate; they are all hypocrites!

We are doing much better today then we have in the past. It will take time to invent these new technologies without killing millions due to cold or having a family’s having to make a decision to pay the heat bill or buy food??? It is a ridiculous situation; especially in Canada where we basically have it all. Not one person in the second largest country in the world, full of richest should have to suffer.

Target the true terrible emission emitter countries that we purchase there crap from.

Have the world leaders that are so concerned about climate change not heard about Zoom, Skype, etc.?? I guess that 30 yr old Scotch taste better in person then over the new technologies that mankind created to slow down carbon foot print!! What a joke!!!

#99 millmech on 10.31.21 at 9:45 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzQ1J4MzRqQ

#100 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 9:46 pm

#92 Wrk.dover on 10.31.21 at 8:42 pm
#50 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 4:21 pm
I’m not sure there many $100k houses even in Toronto in 1975.
___________________________________

Dolce is right about the original price, though his compounding is goofy.

***********************************

Dolce never mentioned an original price. My point was that by his 2.32% figure a $100k houses would only be $287k now. And I suspected houses in Toronto in 1975 were likely under $100k on average.

Put another way if his 2.32% compounded gain was right then today’s $1 million house was already $348k in 1975. No, a typical shingle family home in Toronto in 1975 was nowhere near that as your figures confirm.

Dolce is out to lunch here and apparently is not even willing to explain, correct or defend his number. I will treat his future claims accordingly.

#101 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 9:52 pm

#40 ImGonnaBeSick

And why, may I ask, are profits considered evil?

#1. They tend to push all other priorities to the back seat.
#2. They make people do things they don’t want to do to achieve them.
#3. It is the ultimate measurement of “good job”.

There is more.

But what it comes down to is this: How good do you feel about your profit, when poor people are dying because they can’t afford the vaccine you make, which you BY CHOICE sell to richer countries because they are dumb enough to pay 24x cost of manufacture vs. the poor countries, which can’t afford to pay you and thus can just die.

How good do you feel about profits, when you kill 50,000 people a year in US alone with your opioids that you pushed to be able to prescribe like TIC TACs?

By the way…

#7 Zen on 10.30.21 at 10:24 am

And seriously: how stupid were the Japanese Nuclear Engineers to build Fukushima Power on a beach, on a coast line with thousands of years of known seismic action?

Zen, you can be sure this decision was a profit margin money saving one. If you look at the Wiki page, it nearly says as much…

The plant is on a bluff which was originally 35 meters above sea level. During construction, however, TEPCO lowered the height of the bluff by 25 meters. One reason for lowering the bluff was to allow the base of the reactors to be constructed on solid bedrock in order to mitigate the threat posed by earthquakes. Another reason was the lowered height would keep the running costs of the seawater pumps low. TEPCO’s analysis of the tsunami risk when planning the site’s construction determined that the lower elevation was safe because the sea wall would provide adequate protection for the maximum tsunami assumed by the design basis. However, the lower site elevation did increase the vulnerability for a tsunami larger than anticipated in design.

See? Profit above safety. What was the outcome?

#102 Nonplused on 10.31.21 at 10:03 pm

#67 Curious on 10.31.21 at 5:50 pm
#25 Shawn Allen
I think he said a great thing when he said Leaders have to sometimes tell the population what they NEED to know (climate change is real carbon tax is needed) as opposed to what they WANT to hear (carbon tax is useless, Canada can’t can’t fight climate change we ae too small etc.).
——————————————
Instead of spending time and effort on Canadians being taxed to reduce Carbon emissions and other efforts, ( who emit 2-3% worlds carbon)why not increase our efforts to pressure on the big polluters, such as China, India and Russia to reduce.

————————————–

Strange the US, Europe, and non-Chinese Asia did not make your list. It seems there might be a little bias going on.

In any case, it is only in a pampered country like Canada that the concept can even come up that “pressure” will do anything except irritate the giants. China will do what China does. Pressure from Canada will not even register. 1 Chinese billion people don’t give a rat’s ass what 37 million pampered trust fund babies think.

It has often been said that the strongest definition of Canada is that “we are not American”. I think this is not true. The real identifying characteristic of a Canadian is someone who thinks he matters in a world where he does not. Economically we are not even half of California, and they are a socialist basket case. Militarily we couldn’t even start a fire in a fireworks factory. We mean nothing, yet we would lecture the world.

This is of course the great humor that the rest of the world sees in Trudeau. It is made even funnier by the fact that Trudeau remains blissfully unaware that he is the joke. Not a comedian delivering the joke, not an audience member laughing along with the joke, but actually the joke. Unfortunately so are the rest of us, and we have proven that representative democracy sometimes is just that.

#103 fishman on 10.31.21 at 10:30 pm

The last couple years of investment property buying heralded a new cadre of buyers. And according to some agents the largest cohort. Closet Tradesmen. When the iron curtain fell in 90 Russians,Poles, Serbs, Hungarians, generally Slavs raised under communism came to Vancouver. They got into renos, drywalling, forming, concrete, anything to do with building & construction. They & their wives are grinders with one main goal: buy a house. So that went well & genetically programmed that things only get worse, kept grinding, renting the basement & paying off the house. Thru the good times. Suddenly their houses had huge equity, interest rates very low & the numbers worked. Being brought up old school. Time for more property.

#104 el condor on 10.31.21 at 10:58 pm

No rate hikes for another year. Houses are gonna go up like crazy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-capitulates-pulls-forward-date-first-rate-hike-one-full-year-july-2022

#105 Capt. Serious on 10.31.21 at 11:00 pm

Hear me out on staying with a variable rate (if you haven’t gorged on debt): the pyramid is so precarious that a few interest rate increases could send amateur investors to selling, dragging down economic growth as everything related to real estate starts to contract, forcing the BoC to limit rate increases.

#106 Tomás de Torquemada on 10.31.21 at 11:52 pm

It is amazing how huge money printing and deficits combined with zero rates do nothing to stimulate GDP but merely to sustain it, while wages are literally frozen and inflation skyrockets with rea inflation already above 10 %. The trailing inflation indicators are kicking in and even the bastardized/’preferred’ inflation measures can not hide it.

My current running inflation numbers numbers are:
annual inflation 5-6 % – official, unofficial 12-15 %.

1.5, 2 mil homes indicate no wealth at all, bit deteriorating catastrophically fast real wages, real purchasing power, savings, benefits.

It not for inflation mismeasurement we could we be well in the beginning/middle of the worst inflationary depression ever.

And on top of that the continued and stimulated misallocation of capital towards housing continues to drive fake economic activities, while driving the real economy into the ground.

Through in some desperate lies by BoC, questionable carbon emission policies and you have the pretty much guaranteed and unavoidable recipe for disaster.

Looking at that ‘house’ at over 3.1 mil, the size of the lot, the ‘appreciation’ of 1.6 millions in 3 years through cosmetic renovation /no foundations of an old house were changed, looking at the frozen wages and the fast increase in cost of living, specially food and energy and concluding:
We are doomed, it is pretty much a certainty.

How much was the government benefits indexation again? 1-2 %?

Wages increased by 1-2 % total in the last 2 years.

The delusional jokers at BoC talking stupidities about slack in the economy, inflation targets and other BS while totally ignoring the reality.

Roast chicken ‘dinner’ /in realty a snack/ at $ 10.49 before taxes, while it was $ 4.49 with 60 % bigger size (from current, they started producing smaller and smaller plates since then) just 7 years ago.

That is more like 12-15 % price increase annually.

And the delusional crowd is kept occupied with it’s illusion of significance, importance, superiority and ‘wealth’.

Chasing an ever speeding train with no hope of catching it and developing total ignorance of reality syndrome.

We already live in a virtual reality. Legalized ganja and T2, combined with an exceptional societal stupidity achieved that long time before FB.

#107 Garth's Son Drake on 11.01.21 at 12:22 am

We already saw what the last tightening did to RE combined with the stress test.

Prices dropped 20% and the RE market stayed quiet from 2018 until the end of 2019.

But that was a head fake as rates were yanked back down and truly the greatest perfect storm to suck virtually all in and jack prices to the moon.

These rising rates will do more damage to RE prices than 2018, and with higher prices a 30% drop is going to equal sizable write-downs.

This becomes obvious by 2023. Meanwhile home affordability will still be just as bad because higher rates offsets the savings from a price drop.

Let’s see if higher rates materialize.

The economy is moving forward regardless – doubtful another recession hits anytime soon. Don’t fight the cycles.

#108 Faron on 11.01.21 at 12:31 am

#46 Sail Away on 10.29.21 at 6:39 pm

#38 Faron on 10.29.21 at 5:52 pm

It’s a near certainty that, if we burn all economically recoverable fossil fuel, large portions of the planet will be uninhabitable to all animals that rely on evaporation to cool themselves.

——–

Ok, let’s assume that hypothetical scenario would play out.

After all fossil fuels are burnt, there will be no more to burn and reversion to zero fossil fuels will occur.

In the long run, the same scenario will play out in any case. No need to get all worked up about it.

Were you drunk when you wrote this?

#109 Faron on 11.01.21 at 12:37 am

#67 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 8:52 pm

#38 Faron on 10.29.21 at 5:52 pm

I don’t get it. When covering the weather you seem fine. On any other subject all you can type is insults.

You don’t understand that factual weather discussion and factual climate discussion are the same things. Your ability to discern fact (it snowed in Calgary recently) from fiction (Trump’s Big Lie) is incredibly irritating.

As for persuading dummies (you) I no longer am attempting to do that. The argument isn’t about you at all. It’s about countering your misinformation.

And yes, comment away about my mental health. It befits the level of rhetoric you deploy.

#110 Faron on 11.01.21 at 12:43 am

#55 the Jaguar on 10.29.21 at 7:29 pm

I love Putin

Just wow. I hope that was sarcasm. I’ll grant you that he’s vilified in western Europe and here in North America. But, there is plenty of factual reporting about everything from killing journalists he doesn’t find convenient, poisoning adversaries, violating international law to invade independent countries and infiltrating US institutions of democracy. But, you also like Andy Ngo so… no surprise I guess. How about Duterte? Bolsonaro? Orban? Un? Jeepers.

#111 Under the radar on 11.01.21 at 5:24 am

Perfect Storm- you bet. Prices on SFH will keep rising . There is no inventory , materials and labour are way up .
Money is cheap and even if mortgage rates double money will still be cheap. Come get me from the forest when prime is 8 % , until then I’m listening to the wind move through the trees.

#112 Wrk.dover on 11.01.21 at 6:56 am

#101 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 9:52 pm
The plant is on a bluff which was originally 35 meters above sea level. During construction, however, TEPCO lowered the height of the bluff by 25 meters.
__________________________________

25 meters was enough.

The problem as I understand it was the back up generator being water logged, not the plant.

Apparently, they dragged the generator off a delivery barge to just above the high tide mark on the low beach front, and pretty much installed it right then and there!!!

Your own words again; “See? Profit above safety. What was the outcome?”

#113 Jay (not that one) on 11.01.21 at 8:22 am

So almost immediately, my 10-year mortgage is on par with a 5-year.

I knew this time was coming, I just didn’t know when.

Thanks for the great advice last year to refinance, Garth! I refinanced 5 years into a 10 year mortgage using the loophole in the mortgage act you told us about (the nice lady at the bank learned something about mortgages that day!), so I’m safe from the imminent interest rate shocks for the next 10 years.

#114 Do we have all the facts on 11.01.21 at 8:25 am

#111 Under the radar

In September 2021 there were 260,500 homes across Canada in various stages of construction. This is the highest rate of home construction activity since 1977.

The residential construction industry in Canada has a sufficient supply of serviced land available to meet future demand based on demographic and economic reality. However the recent escalation in the value of residential real estate coupled with the low cost of borrowing has attracted in interest of investors.

Research completed by the OECD determined that there are 1.3 million unoccupied homes across Canada. Unoccupied units represent 9.0% of the total housing stock in Canada. The OECD also found that 25% of all home purchases made in Canada during the past year involved investors who were hoping to profit from escalating house prices.

Much of the demand for homes in Canada is being generated by foreign and domestic investors who view the purchase of real estate in Canada as an opportunity to generate future profits.

As interest rates increase a portion of the 1.3 million housing units being held as investments across Canada will be liquidated. The increased supply of units will reduce average home prices and will trigger the liquidation of additional vacant units.

The Government of Canada is fully aware that the current problem of housing affordability was created by low interest rates. This problem will be resolved as interest rates are gradually increased and investors holding 1.3 million vacant units gradually liquidate their assets into the housing market.

In a world where a virtual coin based on nothing but investor confidence is now worth $77,000 the purchase of Canadian homes as an investment seemed logical. Now that interest rates are poised to increase the extrinsic value of 1.3 million vacant housing units held by investors in Canada will probably retreat towards their intrinsic values.

Holding equities as they temporarily decline in value creates no additional cost for investors. Holding a vacant unit as the value declines quickly becomes a problem for investors as operating and financing costs increase.

Stay tuned as this reality unfolds.

#115 batt519 on 11.01.21 at 9:05 am

Smells like tulips to me.

#116 Dharma Bum on 11.01.21 at 9:18 am

Housing prices may in fact be entering the very early phase of the decline cycle. Possibly.

If true, the prices will continue to decline until the market decides that that they are priced correctly. Then, they will flatline for a time. It will seem like forever.

Eventually, a myriad of economic circumstances will occur to affect the pricing of houses in an upward direction once again.

The wheel goes ’round and ’round. It’s all about time.

You see? Even a bum like me can be an economist!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYeVQzTVyLk

#117 RE_Investors on 11.01.21 at 9:20 am

1st of the month is always a good day for us unleveraged RE Investors.
Of course leverage is required at times, but it’s wise not to overdo the credit.

I usually take some pictures of rent cheques to deposit into my bank account. Then I occasional check for auto deposit e-transfer notifications from my other renters. It’s actually being pretty good during the pandemic for rental income. My tenants have paid the rent on time, sometimes days earlier, sometimes a couple days late. At first I thought they would join the non-paying renters movement, but they all honoured their contracts. Cash flow positive sure makes life easier.

#118 the Jaguar on 11.01.21 at 9:21 am

@#114 Do we have all the facts on 11.01.21 at 8:25 am

I like your style. Factual, well researched presentation.

Any chance we could turn you loose on the number one A-Hole on this blog ? (see the triple post above). He doesn’t seem to understand that for many of us his thoughts or opinion are meaningless. Behold the new pity ploy – his mental health. Cue Sarah to chime in on the danger of bullying. Read up girl. The bully is the Faron the insult dog. Or is it Sean? His post in June 2021 was one for the ages.

#119 the Jaguar on 11.01.21 at 9:24 am

Here it is for any who missed it. Sean is Faron. Garth’s Blog:

Get over it
June 20th, 2021 —

#120 IHCTD9 on 11.01.21 at 9:45 am

#77 Yukon Elvis on 10.31.21 at 7:14 pm

Lots of money/equity out there. I think at best/worst we get a wee pullback or maybe no pullback at all and a plateau for a few years.
___

Enough years with negligible appreciation would probably be enough to get the specuvestors thinking about selling.

We’ve probably got a good 5 years worth of RE sales now where the investor component bought at a price point equal/above that which rent might cover the monthly, and investment success now relies 100% on big price appreciation.

Between cultural based Urban RE demand, and the general acceptance that the current RE market is “normal” (always up) – and now the spectre of higher rates – I can see some really messy stuff coming down the pipe.

#121 Do Evil Act on 11.01.21 at 9:50 am

#112 Wrk.dover on 11.01.21 at 6:56 am
#101 Do Evil Act on 10.31.21 at 9:52 pm
The plant is on a bluff which was originally 35 meters above sea level. During construction, however, TEPCO lowered the height of the bluff by 25 meters.
__________________________________

25 meters was enough.

The problem as I understand it was the back up generator being water logged, not the plant.

Apparently, they dragged the generator off a delivery barge to just above the high tide mark on the low beach front, and pretty much installed it right then and there!!!

Your own words again; “See? Profit above safety. What was the outcome?”

__________________________________

Wrk.dover, I believe you may have misread.

“…bluff which was originally 35 meters above sea level. During construction, however, TEPCO lowered the height of the bluff by 25 meters.”

The bluff was 35 meters, they lowered it by 25 meters to a 10 meter height, upon which the built the power plant.

Was it cheaper to build the plant at a lower height of 10 meters? 25 additional meters in height – over 80 feet – or 8 stories surely would have added significant foundation costs? You can bet every dollar you have that it was a construction cost saving decisions, and this is why the decision was made. Under the excuse of some reasoning that bit them in the butt, hard. They didn’t do this just for the operation of pumps, but cost of actual building construction at that 25 meter higher height.

Did they install the pumps as you say? Well, the building was built already at just 10 meters above sea level instead of 35 meters. That’s 30 feet above sea level vs. 110 feet as originally planned, for our American and British friends.

Was it cheaper to do THAT? The generator wouldn’t be there in the first place if the plant was 25 meters higher, as plans called for, please don’t forget that veer key part. The excuse for building it 25 meters lower was the lower operation of pumps due to distance/pressure requirements.

Why do corporations do something that’s cheaper in the first place?
Lower cost? More margin dollars? Higher profit?

Who gets to pay for their profit driven decisions?

#122 IHCTD9 on 11.01.21 at 10:38 am

My FIL just turned 79, we went over for the party. He’d make a good prepper. 6 cords of seasoned wood piled up out back ready to feed the Pacific Energy woodstove. 13 acre wood lot. Cold room filled with home-brew wine, onions, potatoes, tomatoes, apples, beans, jars of this and that, bunch of herbs and spices, he even had 6 different kinds of garlic on the shelf. Everything came from the big garden out back.

IMHO, this is one of the best things of owning a bit of land. You have some self sufficiency options – “free” heat, “free” food (and known source). A good outbuilding provides storage for all the fuel and food/booze, as well as the equipment and toys you accumulate as a home owner. Eventually, you own a personal castle – or bunker complex in my case.

2-3 decades ago, this was the dream. Buy a decent house, build a nice shop delve into your hobbies and passions as life whizzes by. Too bad Canadians have tossed this thinking aside and now see homes as money makers.

Hopefully it blows like a cheap radial.

#123 Immigrant man on 11.01.21 at 10:40 am

#18 the Jaguar on 10.31.21 at 12:08 pm
..changing people landscape is a significant smoking gun.
———–
I think you’re right on the money here. It’s not just the Southeast Asia, it’s pretty much all immigrants from non-western countries, which is in turn the vast majority of all newcomers to Canada. I came from the former USSR and I can speak to that mindset: in the late 80’s as the empire (of evil) was falling apart the central bank did a currency devaluation 1:10. Lots of people lost their bank (cash) savings as a result. In 1991 gov bonds became worthless paper. Then, during the wild 90s there were endless “share” scams (google russian MMM scam – famous). Many naive people lost their houses/apartments and end up homeless and then dead. Couple that with hyperinflation of the 90s. Like the kind of inflation where any salary, if you are lucky to have a job, has to be spent immediately on real goods or converted to USD/Deutsche Marks. Anyways, that is to say a lot of people were not convinced that holding shares or bonds was a worthwhile proposition. Whereas RE, well, that’s real: you can touch it, you can live in it and you can defend it!

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.01.21 at 10:51 am

#118 the Jaguar on 11.01.21 at 9:21 am
@#114 Do we have all the facts on 11.01.21 at 8:25 am

I like your style. Factual, well researched presentation.
————————
Agree.
Just missing is the conclusion:
There is no housing shortage in Canada!

#125 Shawn Allen on 11.01.21 at 10:57 am

A Climate Change IPO failed today

Ironic on the start of COP26

“TD Direct Investing would like to inform you that the following New Issue has been cancelled, withdrawn or deferred by the issuer. Therefore, all Expressions of Interest on this offering have been cancelled.

Northern Genesis Climate Solutions Corporation”

#126 Bdwy on 11.01.21 at 11:20 am

Why you should only talk to men about investing.

It’s not that women are useless, it’s that men are useful.

…..
Investing decisions are very important and best left useful people.

#127 Faron on 11.01.21 at 11:22 am

#119 the Jaguar on 11.01.21 at 9:24 am

Here it is for any who missed it. Sean is Faron. Garth’s Blog:

Get over it
June 20th, 2021 —

Wait, I thought I had the monopoly on desperately digging through the back-issues for damning evidence? I thought I was the one who was “off my meds” because I did so? I would have hoped this land of sturdy conservative was immune to flimsy double standards. I would hope in vain.

Anyhow, nope. I’m going to guess Sean is Sean. Faron is definitely Faron.

#128 Wrk.dover on 11.01.21 at 11:27 am

#122 IHCTD9 on 11.01.21 at 10:38 am
My FIL just turned 79, we went over for the party. He’d make a good prepper. 6 cords of seasoned wood piled up out back ready to feed the Pacific Energy woodstove
_______________________________

Brand name UL/CSA certified stove. Check.

Follow the leader for valid home insurance coverage.

#129 Faron on 11.01.21 at 11:38 am

#118 the Jaguar on 11.01.21 at 9:21 am

…meaningless…

So, a double post to show how meaningless my opinions are? Well done. Here’s one right back at you.

…his mental health…

Get your facts straight and do try to follow along. BillyBob, Sail Away, ImGonnaBeSick, Nonplused, and Penny don’t like what I say so attempt to marginalize me through claims about my mental health. They are the ones to have raised it, not me. It’s a tactic as old as time. Rarely a winning one. And if it is, not honourably.

All this to dissemble away from your claimed love of one of the world’s most despotic current national leaders (of a great nation filled with great people). Nice.

#130 Jane Finch on 11.01.21 at 11:52 am

Inflation being faked by greedy insiders? Is this the ” Covid Opportunity” the government talked about ? Is this how we ” Build Back Better? ” . Could this be the “Green New Deal” we’ve heard so much about?

Pricing milk out of the reach of consumers will crush the meat industry and save the planet from the methane cows farts. That’s what we’ve heard, and here it is….just in time to slip it into the COP26 agenda.

https://financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/thats-too-much-highest-price-hike-to-milk-in-recent-memory-sparks-criticism-of-supply-management

#131 Faron on 11.01.21 at 12:10 pm

#126 Bdwy on 11.01.21 at 11:20 am

Why you should only talk to men about investing.

It’s not that women are useless, it’s that men are useful.

…..
Investing decisions are very important and best left useful people.

Tripe.

#132 Sail Away on 11.01.21 at 12:32 pm

#129 Faron on 11.01.21 at 11:38 am

BillyBob, Sail Away, ImGonnaBeSick, Nonplused, and Penny don’t like what I say so attempt to marginalize me through claims about my mental health.

——-

A cruise ship passes by a remote island, and all the passengers see a bearded man running around and waving his arms wildly.

“Captain,” one passenger asks, “who is that man over there?”

“I have no idea,” the captain says, “but he goes nuts every year when we pass him.”

#133 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.01.21 at 1:28 pm

#132 Sail Away on 11.01.21 at 12:32 pm
#129 Faron on 11.01.21 at 11:38 am

BillyBob, Sail Away, ImGonnaBeSick, Nonplused, and Penny don’t like what I say so attempt to marginalize me through claims about my mental health.

——-

A cruise ship passes by a remote island, and all the passengers see a bearded man running around and waving his arms wildly.

“Captain,” one passenger asks, “who is that man over there?”

“I have no idea,” the captain says, “but he goes nuts every year when we pass him.”
————————
Haha
I think the guy is Sailo, ship wrecked on his way back from Hawaii.
He’s got the outdoor skills to survive on an island.

#134 Nonplused on 11.01.21 at 2:12 pm

#129 Faron on 11.01.21 at 11:38 am
#118 the Jaguar on 11.01.21 at 9:21 am

Get your facts straight and do try to follow along. BillyBob, Sail Away, ImGonnaBeSick, Nonplused, and Penny don’t like what I say so attempt to marginalize me through claims about my mental health.

———————————-

Faron, my friend, you only have one line of argument which is thus: “I am right and all others are idiots.”

Of course people are going to question your mental health. Healthy people don’t think like that.

And have you ever reread anything you type? Mostly insults, not facts or even discussion.

#135 Greaterfool on 11.01.21 at 10:22 pm

you are absolutely right on the rising mortgage cost, however, Canadians have been so obsessed with this so called genius investment, which has been working greatly in last 10 years, the level of success/smartness/social status are decided by the # of properties you own, and anyone who didn’t join this party is a fool, so the 2% increase of the mortgage rate is treated as another golden opportunity by those successful real estate investors.

nothing but a burst bubble can wake up some of us.

SAD!