Unknown unknowns

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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The biggest dangers are rarely the obvious.

Asking about a Chinese economic slowdown, rising gasoline prices, supply chain disruptions, a Covid variant or the reduction of government and central bank stimulus, while prudent, probably won’t be predictive of the next market calamity.

Availability bias, a behavioural tendency to only view risk in terms of what’s been presented to us recently (on, say, the nightly news) probably won’t capture the next big volatile event. Such information represents only what’s ‘available’ to us. But major risks rarely telegraph themselves this readily. Real risk is usually unforeseeable. The phrase ‘out of left field’ applies here.

To view portfolio risk correctly, let your imagination run wild. What would happen to markets, for instance, if terrorists set off a dirty bomb in downtown Los Angeles? A ridiculous consideration you might say.

But more ridiculous than a global pandemic that kills 5 million and disrupts the entire world for 18 months? More ridiculous than four passenger planes being simultaneously hijacked with two flown directly into the World Trade towers in downtown Manhattan? More ridiculous than Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros, two Wall Street behemoths with a combined history of more than 250 years, going bankrupt in an instant? More ridiculous than a giant wave swamping Japan, killing 20,000 and leading to a nuclear disaster that shuts down the entire country’s nuclear power generation almost overnight?

Proper consideration of risk implies a belief in the fantastic. And knowing that unthinkable events will, with certainty, transpire is why portfolios should always be balanced, holding a meaningful percentage of safe assets. US Treasuries, Government of Canada bonds, provincial bonds and high-quality corporate bonds, for example. All of these assets are painfully boring, but this is the point: a constant allocation of boring assets is what protects best against unforeseeable volatility.

And protects best against the emotional overreactions that come during the volatility. Economist Peter Bernstein in his seminal essay on risk management, The 60/40 Solution, sums it up best:

When [markets] are cascading downward, keeping one’s cool is almost impossible. …how likely would it be that even the most experienced and sophisticated investor would have the self-control to stay 100 percent in stocks, without trading in and out as the market rode up and down its roller coaster? I know I could not have been so calm through depressions, inflations, banking and currency crises, wars, and political disruptions. The crucial element of success is the ability to make decisions without freezing up or slamming the panic button.

In other words, boring as they might be, investors need safe assets to avoid poor investment decisions.

Fortunately, there’s a silver lining to the cataclysmic events that Bernstein mentions. While these events are always unpredictable and idiosyncratic, there’s still a commonality: they’re always temporary. In other words, they shock economies or markets only briefly but never result in irreversible damage or lasting contagion. 9/11, for instance, seemed in the moment like it would lead to endless attacks on many US cities. But, of course, it didn’t. Similarly, Covid seemed poised to derail equity markets for years. But it didn’t.

Markets and economies recover fast from singular events, even serious ones. While we’re consumed by the spectacle of the event itself, we lose sight of the broader economy’s enormous ability to absorb the consequences and move on. The full breadth of history reveals this to be true. Below are the average length of recessions versus the average length of expansionary cycles over the past 75 years or so. You can’t deny it: decades and decades worth of world events tell us that the bad times never last, but the good times do:

US economic expansions and contractions, 1948-2021

Source: Manulife

$         $       $

On a far less grand topic: I recently cancelled my DAZN sports streaming subscription.

Why should you care? Because I barely even remember subscribing to it in the first place. And, apparently, I’m not alone in this.

Subscription costs not only jumped during Covid, but they did so stealthily. According to the Wall Street Journal, the average American is now paying US$273/month on subscription services, up from US$237/month in 2018. But the more revealing discovery is that “most people thought they were actually spending LESS [emphasis mine] on subscriptions than they did in 2018.”

And it’s no wonder. We simply lose track of our subscriptions (and the cost) because of the sheer number of them. See if your subscriptions fall into any of these broad categories: entertainment and music streaming services (Netflix, Amazon Prime, Crave, Spotify, XM Radio, Hulu, etc.), sports streaming services (DAZN, TSN, SportsNet, NHL, etc.), dating apps (Tinder, Match, eHarmony, etc.), digital information services (New York Times, Washington Post, National Post, Globe and Mail, etc.), gaming services (PlayStation Now, Xbox Live, etc.). And I haven’t even touched on fitness and wellness services, home security services, meal services, book services, cloud-storage services or web-hosting services.

Chances are that during Covid you racked up some of the above subscriptions and at least one of them, when you consider it carefully, is no longer necessary (I’m looking at you Peloton users). Now’s the time to deal with your post-Covid subscription hangover.

Cancel a subscription. Save yourself a few bucks.

(Note that I’ve considered in this post both the epic (dirty bombs in Los Angeles) and the mundane (my DAZN subscription). Please don’t ever say that my posts lack breadth.)

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

82 comments ↓

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 10.30.21 at 9:54 am

Another potential “out of left field” scenario would be a second US civil war. The scaremongering tactics are strong, but there is also a chance that the left & right continue to fracture further apart, unable to seek any common ground. What would be the B&D portfolio reallocation scenario if such an unfortunate event were to transpire in the ’20s/’30s?

#2 Stealth on 10.30.21 at 10:04 am

Good morning, thank you for a very good post.
One thing I concluded is that this current incarnation of the economic expansion / bull market is likely only in its infancy.(as per chart shown)

Have a good weekend.

#3 Dolce Vita on 10.30.21 at 10:09 am

What dog breed is that today?

Good read Doug. Chart a comfort.

Pity the subscriptions.

————–

DW News did a reasonable overview job on global housing problems, Vancouver in there too (and Steve Saretsky – and no, it’s not the Foreign Devils to blame):

“Global housing crisis: are we heading for disaster?”
[clickbait title that worked on me]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UAdGuscwqk

#4 secular bull and bear on 10.30.21 at 10:11 am

Netflix subscription. $21
Amazon prime subscription. $9
high speed internet. $90
phone prepaid for 1 year $99 (no data with Freedom)
x2 for the wife’s phone

about $140/mon tax incl

no tv, have high def antenna … 30-40 channels free for life, which we barely watch (initial cost $150 8 years ago)

wellness and exercise? hike nearby nature trails, free
books? local library, free

no newspapers. news free on line
no streaming music. free on line from all over the world

life is better when it’s simpler.

#5 Apocalypse Dude's Drunken BIL on 10.30.21 at 10:16 am

Poxy, where are you bro!?

You’ve been almost completely gone ever since Trump left – are you in your bunker?

Let me try to cheer you up…..

YES, THE APOCALYPSE IS COMING!

Doug is right!

Come on out, we’ll have another drink before it all blows up…..BUuuuuuuuuuURRRRP!!

#6 Dharma Bum on 10.30.21 at 10:16 am

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

– Rudyard Kipling

#7 Zen on 10.30.21 at 10:24 am

Our known universe auto-created out of chaos. Our world presents itself as chaotic. Our Lizard Brain has modeled our psychological reactions around chaos. We see a spinning cosmos and we draw repeating circles into our lives and business plans.

Chaos in a portfolio should be as natural as sex and death. There is nothing mundane about our survival instinct. The human mind thrives on adventure. Embrace chaos. Chaos is your friend.

If you assume that everything will happen, then you’re never dissatisfied with the result. Change is good. Change your mind , change your life. Assume you’ll win and fail in equal measure. It’s in the natural world of chaos that you’ve designed to resemble the questioning mind.

Eliminate expectations and eliminate frustrations. Free your mind, the rest will follow. And if the Apocalypse occurs in the reflection of Al Gores steely eyes you won’t give a crap about money anyway. Hakuna Matata baby. It’s going to spin out of control regardless. Let ‘er rip.

Transcend into non-reliance. If you lose your job…you’ve got the FU. If the market crashes …FU. If a Trudeau gets into office….FU. An balance of chaos, cash, stocks, paid off real estate, no debt…. that’s how to surf the cosmic surf.

And seriously: how stupid were the Japanese Nuclear Engineers to build Fukushima Power on a beach, on a coast line with thousands of years of known seismic action?

#8 THE DANDADA on 10.30.21 at 10:54 am

The 60/40 Solution, sums it up best:

60% Blockchain Company Stocks (ex. Galaxy Digital, HUT8, BIGG)

40% Cryptocurrency Coins (ex. Bitcoin, Eithereum, Solana)

**This is not financial advice**

#9 604sam on 10.30.21 at 11:26 am

Well Saturday’s steerage section is certainly off to a good start, first post outta the gate is investment advice re: the upcoming civil war *rolls eyes*

#10 Drake Chips and Dip on 10.30.21 at 11:32 am

Computer Chips.

Is this just a coverup story intended to keep prices from falling as demand wanes with economic slowdown?

I’m having a bit of a hard time believing that these chip shortages suddenly exist and can’t be resolved for years and years to come. It’s been going on for nearly a year and now it won’t be resolved until 2024? Maybe endless? Doesn’t smell right to me.

First, FPGA technology has been around for a while. These chips can become nearly any other custom chip. We know how to crank these out, and there are many levels of FPGAs that meet all level of needs.

Second, sure, we’re putting chips into more and more stuff, but lets not kid ourselves – not like crazy complicated chips are going in here. We’re talking cheap chips – way cheaper than Raspberry Pi. Commodity stuff that has always been available in excess.

The convenient part of this supposed chip shortage is the prices can be held higher, or in case of CPUs or more significantly GPUs be subject to inflationary pressures that make the chips increase in price significantly.

Additionally, psychological pressure on the masses means the speed up buying decisions for anything with a chip. You don’t negotiate price (cars or other items) just pay and go, happy to get a unit.

This “not enough to go around” is a standard play to stoke up demand, hold prices higher. I don’t buy it.

#11 Dogman01 on 10.30.21 at 11:51 am

Biden leaves office early or dies, the US is left with President Kamala….

USA and Canada continue with their incoherent economic policies and Green agenda leading to energy shortages and major recession.

The decline of religion in the West being substituted with other “God” values. Separating Church and State was one of our best accomplishments, but when your “God” value \ religion is “Climate Change” and you have the power of the state…well watch out.

A regular recession cascades due to some major debt defaults leading to a near depression.

Trump makes his comeback (more and more likely as Biden flounders.) Near Civil War in USA and they get to see what an Insurrection really is.

A limited War with China, a high Tech Naval\Air\Space long range shooting match with crazy ass High Tech whizz bang gadgets. Closing Trade in the far east, a complete collapse of supply chains and decoupling the Chimerica World Economy.
(Note a total war between Great Powers is a ticket to the stone age)

My Bonds act as dry powder, when things are on sale they allow me to buy, however they can only offer so much protection.

While I am a freedom loving, self-reliant financially free sovereign mind; I know in the end my largest risk is exposure to the sheer stupidity and danger of Humans in crowds.

The decline of religion in the West being substituted with other “God” values. Separating Church and State was one of our best accomplishments, but when you religion is “Climate Change” and you have the power of the state…well watch out.

#12 TurnerNation on 10.30.21 at 12:12 pm

Let me tell you what’s known. Big Tech is running the world now. (QQQ.US hitting new highs, natch).
It’s why your Apple IoS, Samsung Pay et al. have support for a global “Health Pass”. Already.
That’s what all this was about…to get every human under electronic control. ‘Mandates’ mean you know longer even own your own body. They do.

The future will consisted of the world that’s been developed – decades in the making – and unleased that cold week March 2020.

– Blockchain. It was made for us. QR codes. Total control globally.
– E-currencies. The role of governments now is to slowly wind down, bankrupt us. T2 doing a stellar job.

– The smiling, non-threatening goofy front-men – Musk and Zuckerberg are the salesman.
Make no mistake what’s being rolled is global military technology.
Who started the Internet? Military.
Who owns & runs and global GPS system? Military
All those microphones err I mean speakers in your house. Hi Siri, Alexa. Smart phones indeed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System

—TBC….

#13 TurnerNation on 10.30.21 at 12:15 pm

….So Facebook now is ‘Meta’, short for Metaverse. They aren’t even trying to hide it.
Yes the Blockchain was built for us. Our cell=block chain:

https://mvs.org/
Metaverse, an open-source public Blockchain aims to provide Digital IDs’ (DID) that is linked to a person’s real-life identity. One has to go through a simple KYC procedure at a bank (through Metaverse) but the bank need not verify the person’s identity if it exists and has been already verified by a third party/Oracle on the Blockchain.

— Listen to your ‘trusted heros’ show you the world that’s been made for us. All those free social media app, decades of data on us. They know us better than God.

#stayhome was training for all of this. Distance (6-6-6 feet apart). Isolation. 24/7 media propaganda.
All to ready us for this. Listen to Zuck:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAL2JZxpoGY
“Mark Zuckerberg has revealed a glimpse of Facebook’s plans to built the “metaverse” – a digital world built over our own, comprising virtual reality headsets and augmented reality. The product launch came as the social media giant announced it will change the name of its holding company to Meta”

#14 Inequity on 10.30.21 at 12:24 pm

I will steal a line from the comic books of my youth and say, that the owner of todays dog picture can confidently say: “My dog can eat your dog”

#15 Comrade on 10.30.21 at 12:25 pm

#85 Longterm on 10.30.21 at 2:46 am

If you are looking for people to chime in with reasons that confirm your preferred narrative that immigrants are bailing out of Canada for X reason then you will find that, but that’s not even remotely the full breadth of the narratives out there.
——
My preferred narrative? Huh, how did you come to that conclusion
I just asked a question because it was unusual yes there are always people who move around for different reasons. But this is the first time I’ve heard people moving back at this scale and am curious if this an isolated thing or people are seeing similar in their communities Nobody is to say they won’t return 2 years from now when they figure out it’s not as they remember it. I noticed a pattern and am curious if there is more to it or not.

#16 Shawn Allen on 10.30.21 at 12:28 pm

Cape Breton coal and Steel Making

#57 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 7:37…

#32 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 5:24 pm

Agreed Cape Breton had mostly or maybe entirely thermal coal as opposed to metallurgical coal (used in steel making). It also had a steel plant for decades so I think it had some metallurgical coal. I don’t recall that there was any problem with Cape Breton’s coal. I don’t think it was dirtier than other thermal coal. It was just hard to access and therefore expensive to mine.

—- ——.

Bituminous coal. They gasify it down to coke, and that is what fuels the old furnaces. I think the process is pretty much extinct, every mill out there seems to run electric arc furnaces to run scrap steel these days. Smelting new ore just costs too much.

******************************
Right, I remember the Sydney Steel plant used to first turn coal into “coke” to feed into its open hearth furnaces.

I looked it up and you are right the coal there is Bituminous. As far as I know it is fine for power plants. But Cape Breton exports no coal these days and imports coal for its power plants.

Sydney Steel plant converted to an Arc furnace in the later years but apparently forgot that there would no cheap scrap steel available in a place with no heavy industry and with that and expensive electricity, the Arc furnace operation was closed. I wonder, what exactly did they imagine their competitive advantage would be?

Someone still has to smelt steel, it can’t all come from scrap. Apparently in Canada STELCO is currently highly profitable and is not an electric Arc operation. I heard the CEO speak and he seems highly competent.

#17 Elon Fanboy on 10.30.21 at 12:29 pm

Yup….those black swan events are rarely taken seriously….until they happen.

For instance right now there is a big solar flare on its way to Earth that might give us some pretty Aurora tonight.

However, Google ‘The Carrington event’. If that happened now it would probably send us back to pre-industrial revolution civilization. Quebec got a taste of that back in 1989 when a solar flare took out the entire Province’s power grid for 8 hours. Not too mention satellites and a whole host of other systems.

#18 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 12:50 pm

The G20 summit is off to a good start.
Biden is mending some fences that Trump broke down.
Especially with France. Biden admitted that the Ausie nuclear deal was not worth losing America’s closest ally, NATO.
XI and PUTIN stayed home, looking after domestic (mostly COVID related) matters.
Some positive news on developments with the Iran conflict.
Angela Merkel again shows why she was such a great leader, bringing the new German Chancellor to the meeting, even though he is from the opposite party.
Cooperation instead of confrontation.
Let’s hope they come up with some clear and decisive commitments on climate change.

#19 wallflower on 10.30.21 at 12:57 pm

11.29 per month for onesoccer.ca
(Canadian content supporter)
~$100 per year for online Globe (forget amount!)
nothing else except cheap shared internet connection (Fido) and cheap data plan cell phone
total telco/streaming under $100 per month

use library all the time for subscrips like Atlantic, Scientific American, Economist – order online and pick up – two block walk

recently switched to all corporate for bonds – ~30 allocation (retired)

life is awesome when simple

#20 Doug Rowat on 10.30.21 at 1:02 pm

#2 Stealth on 10.30.21 at 10:04 am
Good morning, thank you for a very good post.
One thing I concluded is that this current incarnation of the economic expansion / bull market is likely only in its infancy.(as per chart shown)

—-

Correct.

—Doug

#21 Dolce Vita on 10.30.21 at 1:23 pm

Well speaking of Apocalypse, the highlight so far of the G20 this weekend in Roma is Joe Biden’s ride “The Beast”.

Italian fascination with his car is a mystery to me, no subtitles – watch the pretty pictures instead:

“The Beast”: all the secrets of Joe Biden’s car” [clickbait]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CV9pRlmzL7U

“G20, Biden arrives at the Nuvola aboard The Beast: Draghi’s welcome”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i0xWMQ9RmM

——————–

Well Doug, Apocalypse it is with that orangy dog picture of yours today.

#22 Oracle of Ottawa on 10.30.21 at 1:33 pm

I heard many times now about the 40/60 split bonds/equities preached on this site and elsewhere. You must assume we’re all newbie investors and will panic in the slightest downturn. But anyone in this game for awhile now know that any down turn is temporary. As you have mentioned. I would rather receive greater dividends and more upside and tax benefits than put 40% in bonds. I look forward to downturns to reinvest my dividends into more etf purchases. It’s all in the perspective.

Never on this site have you heard a recommendation for 40% bonds in a balanced portfolio. Are you purposefully untruthful or a just a poor reader? – Garth

#23 Dave on 10.30.21 at 1:46 pm

Everyone person I know from blue collar to white are on their knees with debt and staring into the Abyss of inflation!

Everyone has given up…there is no end….covid will arise again and interest rates will stay low. We will all eventually live in Facebooks virtual world

Sad

A crack house in Vancouver is now $2M….and rising

When does it end in your world Ryan?

#24 NoName on 10.30.21 at 2:02 pm

#10 Drake Chips and Dip on 10.30.21 at 11:32 am

chippy chipps

You might be on to something here, everyone is talking about shortages, but rarely anyone mentions new manufacturing. It takes a two years to build chip factory and and 2-3 billion in 2002 USD, probably now its way more expensive, and depending where is built, but seeing all those billions thrown around like i wonder also where i the chippy chipps, especialy when “leaders” say we will lead you to cutting edge of blah blah blah…

But you know what is interesting, when silicon valie, probably vaccum tube valie back then, was transitioning from tube to semiconductors and first integrated circuits many engineers and scientists were tripping. That help them to come up with ideas and remember very complex architecture of integrated chips and relations and interaction od individual components in circutry. Haveing to remember a just block diagram wasnt enough to come up with modification and improvements.

But what is more interesting, Ponzies cousin Tesla (yes he only held austrian and american citizenship) was doing exactly same as of early age, but without using funny stuf. He had some funny issues with attention and focus, so when he would get fixiated on a problem or object that would “lock him in funny state” to escape that, he would “fly” to future in his mind and wonder around. There is where he sow stuff and ideas came. So upon arrival “back home” he would try to use technology of today to recreate devices from his head future.

Now days ideas and designs are plentiful so many of new designers are tripping in process of searching of new and unique ideas, micro dosing its much more spread around that its talked about. What is not nesseserily bad thing, how long it doesn come up with to many funny stuff… I mean i am not anti progress but sometimes it seems that some transitioned from micro to mini without telling anyone.

https://imgur.com/a/EEPn8ys

#25 Linda on 10.30.21 at 2:09 pm

Always nice to see positivity for a forecast:) If ‘averages’ can be relied upon, then we should see positive annual returns for the next 3-4 years. Some talk about a reprise of the roaring 20’s. So opportunity, but keep in mind a Godzilla of depression/recession may also emerge!

#26 Dave on 10.30.21 at 2:14 pm

In France they finally had enough and executed bankers by the thousands…..many many many decades ago

It’s true…history tells us what the middle class think of the bankers and the banking system. Execute them all!

#27 NoName on 10.30.21 at 2:14 pm

#17 Elon Fanboy on 10.30.21 at 12:29 pm
Yup….those black swan events are rarely taken seriously….until they happen.

For instance right now there is a big solar flare on its way to Earth that might give us some pretty Aurora tonight.

However, Google ‘The Carrington event’. If that happened now it would probably send us back to pre-industrial revolution civilization. Quebec got a taste of that back in 1989 when a solar flare took out the entire Province’s power grid for 8 hours. Not too mention satellites and a whole host of other systems.

Funny thing that you mention that, sun is blasting solar flares lately. Lets just hope that halowind will be not overcast, maybe we see aurora. That would be spooktacular.

https://www.space.com/solar-flares-mesmerizing-nasa-sun-video-october-2021

#28 Doug Rowat on 10.30.21 at 2:28 pm

#11 Dogman01 on 10.30.21 at 11:51 am
Biden leaves office early or dies…

Trump makes his comeback (more and more likely as Biden flounders.) Near Civil War in USA and they get to see what an Insurrection really is.

—-

Predictions or wishes?

Regardless, confirms the purpose of balance.

—Doug

#29 Pbrasseur on 10.30.21 at 2:34 pm

If by risk you mean risk of not having enough comes retirement then so called safe assets are just one more risk.

If your horizon is more than 5 years you don’t need « safe » assets, you just don’t.

Short term fluctuations don’t represent a risk.

What you need is essentially more financial literacy…

#30 espressobob on 10.30.21 at 2:41 pm

When it comes to the idiot box (TV), an OTA antenna does the trick, and costs nothing. The commercials however can be painful.

Risks come with investing, sure. Buying into a correction because its Armageddon,usually pays off with some serious gains when the threats are worked out and the herd is singing kumbaya.

It takes a certain type of mindset to buy in that scenario.

#31 Quintilian on 10.30.21 at 2:44 pm

Just too many unknowable unknowns to make an accurate prediction, but only guesses.

For example, what happens if there is an resurgence of the Confederate States movement and it succeeds, and at the same time, Alberta separates, becomes a republic and Jason Kenney becomes the president and Ponzius Pilatus VP; then what?

Will Alberta remain a republic or join the Confederates?

#32 Summertime on 10.30.21 at 2:50 pm

The biggest real estate bubble in the world?

The center of the universe, the pinnacle of civilization… Toronto it is

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/2021/global-real-estate-bubble-index.html

#33 Blogdog123 on 10.30.21 at 2:54 pm

And ditch the Bell Canada home phone… over $40 a month for no features…

Use your cellphone or a voip provider, you won’t miss the home phone. Plus you get super-duper features with VoIP that Bell can’t match.

#34 Sail Away on 10.30.21 at 3:40 pm

#88 Do we have all the facts on 10.30.21 at 9:05 am

Re: hedge funds returns

——–

Other than a few very specific hedge funds (particularly quants run by certified mathematical geniuses) the vast majority are special only in that they have higher fees and make people feel unique due to minimum account size.

Warren Buffett’s ten-year bet is as applicable today as ever:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffetts-bet-hedge-funds-year-eight-brka-brkb.asp

#35 Dice-a-volt on 10.30.21 at 3:41 pm

#12 TurnerNation

Let me tell you what’s known. Big Tech is running the world now. (QQQ.US hitting new highs, natch).
It’s why your Apple IoS, Samsung Pay et al. have support for a global “Health Pass”. Already.
That’s what all this was about…to get every human under electronic control. ‘Mandates’ mean you know longer even own your own body. They do.

So I’ve been MICROCHIPPED? It wasn’t a lie? :-)

#36 Bezengy on 10.30.21 at 3:55 pm

Many subscription based companies put a lot of effort into making sure canceling your subscription is as painful and complicated as possible. Amazon music comes to mind. SIL convinced me to sign up and then cancel as I would get the 30 day trial for free. $100 later and after multiple calls I realized the add-ons I must have gotten along with the deal had to be cancelled too, on Amazon.ca , not Amazon.com. I have other examples as I’m sure most of us do. In any event, as my old man used to say. “Take care of the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves”.

#37 The West on 10.30.21 at 4:11 pm

Another great entry Mr. Rowat. Always a pleasure.

#38 yvr_lurker on 10.30.21 at 4:22 pm

subscriptions in this house are minimal: netflix, crave, amazon prime, apple music, icloud, and that is it…. we are poor at consuming….outlays only to animal causes (humane society, world wildlife)…….have re-taken up the guitar (which I used to do often in my 20s ) and am teaching my kid who is interested….. This is stuff people used to do before getting lost in all of the possible subscriptions that can suck both time and money…

#39 Dogman01 on 10.30.21 at 4:36 pm

Trump makes his comeback (more and more likely as Biden flounders.) Near Civil War in USA and they get to see what an Insurrection really is.
—-
Predictions or wishes?
Regardless, confirms the purpose of balance.
—Doug

——————–

Predictions, – USA (and Canada) need a stalwart pragmatist at the helm for two terms.

Trump is a symptom, Biden’s close election results should have put some stability, moderation and humility into US political leadership. Instead it’s TDS.

“Never bet against America”, but the way things are going Trump may actually have a shot at come back and it would tear that place apart. With China rising and becoming aggressive we can’t have a crippled USA.

Maybe Mike Pence runs?

“The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.”

#40 Tarot Card on 10.30.21 at 4:46 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Doug
Yes you covered allot of topics today!

I will make a case for devils advocate for discussion.
While I agree you cannot predict exactly when an event will happen you for sure know something is coming.

I believe you could have predicted many of the events you mentioned, maybe not exactly what happened or when but that something was going to happen. We just bury our heads in the sand and ignore what we know.

Japan is prone to earthquakes and while you cannot say for certain when but, you could say for sure any country that lives in the ring of fire will have a major event. Including earthquakes and tsunamis ! San Francisco comes to mind.

We know for sure climatic events are more severe now but we don’t know by how much or when but why are we are surprised when a 1 in 100 year event occurs! Why?

As far as 9/11 yes that was for sure going to happen with the US playing bully around the world someone was going to push back. Whose next? Iran ?

We could even predict a kind of Peal Harbour was going to happen in fact it was caused by the Americans imposing an oil embargo on Japan. Again we reap what we sow. And what trade sanctions do we Impose now? Are there not consequences? Absolutely what and when is unknown.

As for the pandemic it had been said ever since SARS that another big one was coming. But we all said nope cannot happen. Again you cannot predict when or the severity but you knew it was coming. And some say this will happen again.

Look at residential schools why did it take five years after the report for everyone to be shocked? It states right in the report that there were at least 5,000 unmarked graves. Yet we wait five years and even The old Indian affairs guy new!

Will there be a major conflict in the China Sea absolutely. China says it owns Taiwan so what not to expect. What’s not to know is how big or when. We just need one accident for things to get out of control. After all Canada sailed its Navy through is that not provocation? What would we say if China sailed its navy down Vancouver island or though the Arctic? Hmmmmm

And the list goes on and on,

And yes you could have predicted subscriptions, I remember when Microsoft changed to subscription I knew then everyone was going to offer subscriptions and you are correct nobody noticed. What’s $10 here or there.

To drake chip and dip, I have also been wondering as well why there is suddenly a chip shortage. But it must be true to close car plants.

Now could any of you predict 4 million Americans missing from the work force?
But then again look at the information a million people are now home schooling, new business applications have gone up 200 percent and tons of boomers retired.
You see it’s easy when you know where to look.

Have a great weekend everyone.

#41 Capt. Serious on 10.30.21 at 4:51 pm


#29 Pbrasseur on 10.30.21 at 2:34 pm
If by risk you mean risk of not having enough comes retirement then so called safe assets are just one more risk.

If your horizon is more than 5 years you don’t need « safe » assets, you just don’t.

Short term fluctuations don’t represent a risk.

What you need is essentially more financial literacy…

Sure, but a strategy someone can’t execute is worthless. It’s fine to say someone will not panic and sell, but we know a lot of people do. So, what Doug writes makes a lot of sense to make sure people stay the course. Are you giving up some return relative to 100% equity? Yes. That’s better than achieving a terrible return due to not following the plan. People are emotional beings, mostly.

#42 baloney Sandwitch on 10.30.21 at 5:01 pm

Great pic. Not a dog for sure. Is that Wuhan-Xi leaving town?

#43 Michael in-north-york on 10.30.21 at 5:08 pm

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 10.30.21 at 9:54 am

Another potential “out of left field” scenario would be a second US civil war. The scaremongering tactics are strong, but there is also a chance that the left & right continue to fracture further apart, unable to seek any common ground. What would be the B&D portfolio reallocation scenario if such an unfortunate event were to transpire in the ’20s/’30s?
===

Won’t happen in the ’20s or ’30s. But if it did:
– 70% canned or nonperishable food
– 15% clothes
– 15% fuel

Nothing recorded electronically would be a safe investment.

#44 R on 10.30.21 at 5:12 pm

….So Facebook now is ‘Meta’, short for Metaverse. They aren’t even trying to hide it.
………..
In Hebrew, “meta” means death:

https://forward.com/culture/477390/meta-dead-hebrew-facebook-mark-zuckerberg-new-name-metaverse/

#45 Doug Rowat on 10.30.21 at 5:43 pm

#36 Bezengy on 10.30.21 at 3:55 pm
Many subscription based companies put a lot of effort into making sure canceling your subscription is as painful and complicated as possible.

—-

Readers of a certain age will recall Columbia House.

—Doug

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 6:11 pm

The decline of religion in the West being substituted with other “God” values. Separating Church and State was one of our best accomplishments, but when you religion is “Climate Change” and you have the power of the state…well watch out.
————————–
Let’s assume you’re right and Climate Change is a religion.
And lets assume that religions are based on Faith not scientific facts.
So, in your world, Climate Change is based on Faith.
So is religion.
I always find it interesting that many religious people believe that they know what their God is thinking.
For all we know, he’s a Tree Hugger (The Pope is) and he’s tired of the mess his People are making of his beautiful Planet.
Maybe he’s just rewriting the 10 Commemtments, replacing the false witness (no one, especially no politicians follow it anyway) Commendment with ” “Though shalt  not pollute”.
Picture this scenario:
A rightious men arrives at the Pearly Gates, having lived according to the bible all his life, and is sure to just be waved thru by St. Peter.
But the Angel says, not so fast, let me check your record first.
I see you drove an F-150, this according to the new rules means purgatory for you.
But wait, I see you also had shares in EXXON, a company that continuous to foul up our Lord’s beaches.
That means straight to hell with you.
No place for hypocrites in Heaven.
Amen.

#47 Don Guillermo on 10.30.21 at 6:14 pm

#26 Dave on 10.30.21 at 2:14 pm
In France they finally had enough and executed bankers by the thousands…..many many many decades ago

It’s true…history tells us what the middle class think of the bankers and the banking system. Execute them all!
**************************************
Some years ago I worked a contract for Total in the Orinoco basin of Venezuela. My 1st day in they told me the pass code to use the print/copy machines in the offices were the year of the French Revolution. I nodded oui merci and quickly went to google it.

#48 I Identify as Cranky on 10.30.21 at 6:16 pm

I just finished reading “The Mandibles” by Lionel Shriver. Was it someone from this blog who had recommended the book? If so , thanks.

The setting is the aftermath of US default on their debt, and the turmoil that ensues. Quite thought provoking.

#49 Don Guillermo on 10.30.21 at 6:30 pm

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 6:11 pm
The decline of religion in the West being substituted with other “God” values. Separating Church and State was one of our best accomplishments, but when you religion is “Climate Change” and you have the power of the state…well watch out.
————————–
Let’s assume you’re right and Climate Change is a religion.
And lets assume that religions are based on Faith not scientific facts.
So, in your world, Climate Change is based on Faith.
So is religion.
I always find it interesting that many religious people believe that they know what their God is thinking.
For all we know, he’s a Tree Hugger (The Pope is) and he’s tired of the mess his People are making of his beautiful Planet.
Maybe he’s just rewriting the 10 Commemtments, replacing the false witness (no one, especially no politicians follow it anyway) Commendment with ” “Though shalt not pollute”.
Picture this scenario:
A rightious men arrives at the Pearly Gates, having lived according to the bible all his life, and is sure to just be waved thru by St. Peter.
But the Angel says, not so fast, let me check your record first.
I see you drove an F-150, this according to the new rules means purgatory for you.
But wait, I see you also had shares in EXXON, a company that continuous to foul up our Lord’s beaches.
That means straight to hell with you.
No place for hypocrites in Heaven.
Amen
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Where does he put the Q5 drivers? I hope it’s next to the Tesla guys.

#50 BCWally on 10.30.21 at 6:49 pm

Interesting take on “the black swan event” as described by Nassim Taleb in his book.
I’m currently looking at the out of control Canadian debt situation, both institutional and personal using the same approach that hidden risk is what will finally correct this situation.
Let’s see who agrees with me that external events will finally bring that house of cards down.
Why? Exactly the reasons stated in this blog post. Risk defined only in the internal factors that are known.

#51 Wrk.dover on 10.30.21 at 6:57 pm

I stared at that chart until my bear eyes burned.

Now I see it with my eyes closed.

#52 Philco on 10.30.21 at 7:12 pm

Thats the name of the game hey Doug. Get a product built
then when peeps sign up the DIVs pour in and many forget their paying for it. Like SIRIUS radio lol.
I never get caught up in that and if you do you missed reading the Wealth Barber ;-)

I’m so far behind I think I’m first!
I dropped this on the prior BLOB so here it is because is so important! Also allows me to check my grammar and spelling. That’s important also. lol I can’t do either…

#17 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 3:43 pm
#167 Philco on 10.29.21 at 12:17 pm
#149 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 8:54 am
#73 Quintilian on 10.28.21 at 5:23 pm

Enjoy the tax increase.
I don’t mind them; I look at the bigger picture.
______
Ha your a brave man tackling that IHTCD9!
Im swammped today so I just say this.
Its NEVER enough. As my parter says.
” They could get a 100% and they still couldn’t balance the budget”
——- —

Your partner is bang on the money regarding these Libs. Thanks why I keep my financial support to a minimum, it all goes to waste, so why feed them?

These next 4 years will be a popcorn gulping good time.

I eagerly await Trudeau’s response as to how we are going to lower the flag to half mast for Remembrance Day, when it’s already been sitting there for 5 months.
———————
Were going drop’er to the bottom of the flag pole then invert it…all good. That’s how these idiots run this country. Budgets don’t matter. Debt don’t matter.
Sure as hell do in my world.
Politics is just one big gong show now.

And for pro tax guy…..not a chance he’s sees the bigger picture….lucky if he can see out his window.
OMG do you actually know how many taxes are on crap that crosses the boarder alone?
You get killed on the currency then 2 taxes plus duty and brokerage fees.
Still laughing at that…

I’m busy going to war on them lazy, useless, self important dead beats in the Regional district.
Their bringing in more building code. NOBODY wants it or needs it….It cost enough to develop land.

#53 secular bull and bear on 10.30.21 at 7:24 pm

#34 Sail Away on 10.30.21 at 3:40 pm
Warren Buffett’s ten-year bet is as applicable today as ever
__________________________________________

warren buffet should take his own advice. he hasn’t been able to beat the SP500 since 1998. that’s 21 years and counting. he’s been severely under performing since 2009

#54 Brett in Calgary on 10.30.21 at 7:27 pm

Thanks Doug, good post. Good idea to bring up subscriptions, those are sneaky little bastards. Now if only we could do something about fees on the fee, fees that utility companies seem to thrive on…

#55 Ed on 10.30.21 at 7:40 pm

There are many thousands of 1 in a 100 year events…so we should be getting a few hundred of these outliers every year.
Of course fear lasts forever.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.21 at 7:51 pm

@#16 Shawn Aleen
“Sydney Steel plant converted to an Arc furnace in the later years but apparently forgot that there would no cheap scrap steel available in a place with no heavy industry and with that and expensive electricity, the Arc furnace operation was closed. I wonder, what exactly did they imagine their competitive advantage would be?”

+++

While I admire your allegiance to The Cape.

Sadly, it doesn’t matter what you build in Cape Breton.
The socialist Union minset will send any investors running in the opposite direction.
I watched with bemusement about 15 years ago when Glock floated the idea of starting a gun manufacturing plant in Sidney.
Coal for steel, high unemployment, low wgaes, etc etc etc.
The Provincial and Federal govt was lining up with free money ( grants, tax breaks, etc)
It looked good.
Then the unions in Cape Breton got involved,
“How dare them foreigners tell us what to do” Etc etc etc.
Long story short Glock said “see ya” like many many many other potential investors

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.21 at 7:53 pm

@#15 Shawn Allen

Any dont’t forget.
Trudeau’s political Horse Whisperer is from Cape Breton
Mr Butts.
Socialist welfare union mindset prevails.

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 7:55 pm

 #49 Donnie Boy
I see you drove an F-150, this according to the new rules means purgatory for you.
But wait, I see you also had shares in EXXON, a company that continuous to foul up our Lord’s beaches.
That means straight to hell with you.
No place for hypocrites in Heaven.
Amen
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Where does he put the Q5 drivers? I hope it’s next to the Tesla guys.
 ——————
Keep up, Buddy.
I gave it to my son, who traded it in for a Nissan Micra, and some extra cash.
Tesla guys are hypocrites like Sailo.
Heaven holds no place for Hypocrites and Mexican Narcos.
Watching the Series on Netflix. Very entertaining.
Fantastic scenery. good acting.
Would call it the “Mexican Godfather”

#59 Sail Away on 10.30.21 at 8:00 pm

#53 secular bull and bear on 10.30.21 at 7:24 pm
#34 Sail Away on 10.30.21 at 3:40 pm

Warren Buffett’s ten-year bet is as applicable today as ever

——–

warren buffet should take his own advice. he hasn’t been able to beat the SP500 since 1998. that’s 21 years and counting. he’s been severely under performing since 2009

——–

Exactly Buffett’s point: nobody, including him, is liable to beat the US market index over the long term. It takes a wise and humble man to acknowledge that.

Buffett does not recommend people invest in Berkshire, but instead in the index.

#60 Drake Chips and Dip on 10.30.21 at 8:08 pm

#24 NoName

Remember all that talk about how behind Intel was in their manufacturing process? Well, what’s up with all that 10nm process capacity Intel has? Not exactly like sales of their processors was on the up and up. AMD was eating their lunch. And what doubt AMD? Like they didn’t know they would eat Intel’s share and thus provisioned for the capacity to satisfy share growth?

As I said, I don’t buy it. And that’s before you throw FPGA into it. Granted, not all chips fit in all places, but there are equivalents.

#40 Tarot Card

…4 million Americans missing from the work force?

Between the shutdowns due to Pandemic, business going belly up, Amazon eating up share, now vaccine mandates doing the layoffs for 10% of the workforce – this whole thing has been convenient for work force reduction – in that no one at the company has to bare responsibility for it.

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 8:30 pm

#56 CEF
Coal for steel.
No expert, but I thougt most of the parts of the GLOCK guns are made from Polymer 2, not steel.
And you forgot to mention that GLOCK guns were invented in Austria.

#62 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 8:38 pm

#60 Drake whatever…4 million Americans missing from the work force?

Between the shutdowns due to Pandemic, business going belly up, Amazon eating up share, now vaccine mandates doing the layoffs for 10% of the workforce – this whole thing has been convenient for work force reduction – in that no one at the company has to bare responsibility for it.
————-
That’s not what the Economists are saying.
They call it “The Great Resignation”.
Workers are quitting or not coming back to work because of crapy wages and work conditions.
And generally being burned out.
That’s why there are so many unfilled positions, and dishwashers fetch 50k.

#63 Zen on 10.30.21 at 8:49 pm

The Green Goons are meeting!! Huzzah !! Not a shock that idiots have snorkeled the goop of an impending apocalypse. People have survived by believing that the reaper is always looking over their shoulder. Fear of the unknown is what drives us to create the unlimited survival scenarios that spin through the mind. A climate disaster is also described as ‘ the chicken little’ . Death by climate is the perfect food for our survival instinct driven instinct lizard brain. It’s a problem that our minds can never solve. it’s religion. The end is unknowable…thus we run our tireless treadmill. Climate apocalypse is like crack cocaine for our ‘ ask and answer brain’. “ The sky is falling” , literally.

But of course it isn’t. The planet is not dying. We can’t tax the universe into submission. Manufacturing windmills is still manufacturing. Digging up carbon resources to make more carbon based products is insanity, rats on wheels. The Earth has been a lava planet, a CO2 ball where giant lizards are giant ferns , an aqua planet, a desert dune, a place where tectonic shift saw spinning masses crashing around for a billion years. You’re never going to survive a process of taxing the planet into stasis. Nature doesn’t work that way. So what? So you really know that the climate charade is the perfect fares. It is and was never anything but a money raising scam in the name of “ sustainable development”. A charity scam, and you fell for it, because your brain is addicted to change. Those who understand this profit.

#64 tbone on 10.30.21 at 10:54 pm

You can get a discount on any service by calling in to cancel your service .
I get sirius xm satellite radio for 50 bucks a year ,and get the saturday star cheaper now.
I got adt to drop their price to 12 bucks a month , i know i can get it for 9.99 from the monitoring centre . Too lazy to switch . I think the stickers on the window would deter break and enter artists without the need for monitoring and adt knows that. They would just go next door.

#65 kc on 10.30.21 at 11:21 pm

45 Doug Rowat on 10.30.21 at 5:43 pm

#36 Bezengy on 10.30.21 at 3:55 pm
Many subscription based companies put a lot of effort into making sure canceling your subscription is as painful and complicated as possible.

—-

Readers of a certain age will recall Columbia House.

—Doug

*****

Columbia House….. who actually paid for those albums? My friends and I were getting new stuff every 3 months under any name we could think up.

Bills??? LOL I am surprised they could keep that thing running as long as they did.

cheers

#66 Nonplused on 10.30.21 at 11:49 pm

“Availability bias, a behavioural tendency to only view risk in terms of what’s been presented to us recently (on, say, the nightly news) probably won’t capture the next big volatile event. Such information represents only what’s ‘available’ to us. But major risks rarely telegraph themselves this readily. Real risk is usually unforeseeable. The phrase ‘out of left field’ applies here.”

The funny thing is that the big risks are usually telegraphed. They new about the problem of planes and buildings a long time before 9/11 and Israeli airlines had been locking their doors for years due to hijacking. The problem is that it is hard to get your head around something that hasn’t already happened TO YOU before or is so rare that it doesn’t seem likely. So people hijacking Israeli airplanes? No big deal. It can’t happen here because reasons. But it is right in front of your nose.

For example, who here does not have a backup generator at their home? Even a little 1500 watt Honda? Or a cheapy brand like a Champion? And a couple flats of bottled water? Why not? We’ve seen people need them in Quebec, the US Northeast, California, and Texas. But you don’t have one? Why not? Well, because you never needed one before. But neither did they. And by the time you need one it is to late to get one.

Or you have cases like the California energy crisis, which nobody at all in the whole continental US saw coming except for a guy with initials JA and some others who made billions off of it (collectively). But they did not play their cards until all the bets were on the table and they certainly never issued a press release before hand.

Or Amaranth. People new they couldn’t hold the settle forever and squeezed them. But nobody issued a press release until the squeeze was done and all the money was gone.

All those 1 in 75 million year events the bankers talk about mean they don’t know anything about statistics or “fat tails”. Or they are lying. Probably the later.

It seems everything is a “black swan” these days, but the fact is that not even a pandemic or a terrorist attack or a tsunami qualifies. A black swan is something nobody thought existed until they discovered Australia. All swans are white until there is one that isn’t. But the black swan is out there.

It probably won’t kill the markets though.

——————————-

Good reminder to kill the subscriptions. I heard of a company once that put a moratorium on all internal reporting and no reports were to be issued unless someone requested it. Word was they dropped 90% of the internal reports. Subscriptions are a creeping plague of the same sort. Eventually you end up with all these subscriptions you don’t hardly use or at least could do without. Sometimes I miss the old world of PVR rather than having to have 4 streaming services to get all the shows you want to watch. And given the complete lack of anything interesting coming out lately do we really need to watch it at all? Another Spiderman reboot? Zzzzz. Oh wait, here is a new idea! Batman reboot! 4 Toy Story movies aren’t enough? Well let’s do just Buzz Lightyear then!

Cancel everything you don’t use regularly. The subscription thing is part of the “You will own nothing and be happy” conspiracy. You can’t even own “Ghostbusters” on DVD anymore. (The original not the reboot, nobody wanted to watch that streaming or not.)

#67 Drake Chips and Dip on 10.30.21 at 11:51 pm

#62 Ponzius Pilatus

————-
That’s not what the Economists are saying.
They call it “The Great Resignation”.
————-

Yes, I did see that reported.

I can buy that story for the low paying entry jobs in restaurants for example. Honestly, for that money with all those unmasked open mouths all over forks, plates, glasses you have to handle along with breakthrough infections happening? I understand that a good section of even low risk young people will bail on this scene.

The atmosphere, ambiance, even appearance of these restaurants is currently permanently impacted. Not a fun environment anymore that it used to be. I’m certainly not eating out as much as I used to.

Maybe all those unvaxed fired nurses and teachers can fill some of these restaurant jobs? After all, restaurant employees and cooks don’t need to be vaccinated, still.

On the other hand, there are transit ridership reductions that are impacting those workers. What about all those pilots? Are they resigning from all those reduced flights? There are tons of good jobs we could come up with that have been impacted and will continue to be.

#68 Nonplused on 10.30.21 at 11:57 pm

#11 Dogman01 on 10.30.21 at 11:51 am

The decline of religion in the West being substituted with other “God” values. Separating Church and State was one of our best accomplishments, but when you religion is “Climate Change” and you have the power of the state…well watch out.

————————————-

I found out yesterday that if we don’t stop climate change the dinosaurs will go extinct.

#69 NoName on 10.31.21 at 12:00 am

#60 Drake Chips and Dip on 10.30.21 at 8:08 pm
#24 NoName

Remember all that talk about how behind Intel was in their manufacturing process? Well, what’s up with all that 10nm process capacity Intel has? Not exactly like sales of their processors was on the up and up. AMD was eating their lunch. And what doubt AMD? Like they didn’t know they would eat Intel’s share and thus provisioned for the capacity to satisfy share growth?

As I said, I don’t buy it. And that’s before you throw FPGA into it. Granted, not all chips fit in all places, but there are equivalents.

There is an interesting podcast on AMD and their processors and how and when they surpassed Intel that I listen to some time last year. Basically and had to devolp set its own instruction set and change processor structure or something along those lines and just took it from there.

Now days is all about custom silicone as they call it, many are moving in that direction. Aapple and their new what ever they are GPU or CPU as something else. Nothing comes close for now.

I remember reading when Microsoft was talking to hard code “half” of windows on chip and other half would be software. That was kind of interesting back then now everyone is kind of doing that or want to that.

As for legacy chips subscription economy will put last neil it their cofin…

#70 R on 10.31.21 at 12:11 am

63: Zen.
George Carlin summed it up well.
“The planet is fine,the people are f-cked”
https://youtu.be/PdSi9NW5u3E

#71 Don Guillermo on 10.31.21 at 12:59 am

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.30.21 at 7:55 pm
#49 Donnie Boy
I see you drove an F-150, this according to the new rules means purgatory for you.
But wait, I see you also had shares in EXXON, a company that continuous to foul up our Lord’s beaches.
That means straight to hell with you.
No place for hypocrites in Heaven.
Amen
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Where does he put the Q5 drivers? I hope it’s next to the Tesla guys.
——————
Keep up, Buddy.
I gave it to my son, who traded it in for a Nissan Micra, and some extra cash.
Tesla guys are hypocrites like Sailo.
Heaven holds no place for Hypocrites and Mexican Narcos.
Watching the Series on Netflix. Very entertaining.
Fantastic scenery. good acting.
Would call it the “Mexican Godfather
*****************************
You and your son can take a pass because you’ve moved your so called offensive vehicle on to an unsuspecting devilish person. You lefties are slippery. Yes, Narcos series is awesome. Glad you’re keeping up!

#72 Jane Finch on 10.31.21 at 5:23 am

Canada has gone belly up. The stench is bothering the neighbors.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-lowered-flags-are-a-symbol-of-a-nation-in-decline

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 8:46 am

@#72 Jane Finch
“Canada has gone belly up. The stench is bothering the neighbors.”

++++

I think the gist of Conrad Black’s opinion piece was.
“Canada has gone belly up and while other countries watch with bemusement …..No one else really cares.”

#74 Wrk.dover on 10.31.21 at 8:52 am

#45 Doug Rowat on 10.30.21 at 5:43 pm
Readers of a certain age will recall Columbia House.
______________________________________

Anyone know what a 35-60 year old mainstream album is worth now?

I’ve got a buyer coming from the city to peruse what I am willing to part with, in a few weeks.

I’m supposing a dollar would be high.

#75 Drake Chips and Dip on 10.31.21 at 8:58 am

#69 NoName

Indeed. I find it hard to believe all that 10nm Intel production capacity and factory hardware suddenly went to trash.

And as I said, I also find it hard to believe AMD wasn’t ready with production capacity to take Intel’s share with their 7nm CPUs that every gamer now wants by default.

We haven’t mentioned ARM yet, but since you mentioned Apple, it is time to talk ARM and their hundreds of versions and makers.

Plus, FPGA/ARM combos? I mentioned FPGA but this combo is off the Hip Hop Chain Bro! These chips are basically shapeshifters. The ARM cores underpin FPGAs than can be programmed to act like thousands of other chips. And I’m talking processors, custom chip sets, specific chips – they become a hardware replication in a blink, and then can change to something else, again in a blink. Endless chips in one. Multiple chips at once! Magical stuff.

Finally, how about those production facilities. Fully automated, highly environmentally controlled and safe. Covid or not, these wafers can keep moving.

I’m sure the industry will come up with plausible reasons of course – chip factory fires seems to be one that raises flags to me. I still don’t buy the magical disappearance of chip production capacity globally. As I said off the top, seems to me like price increase justification. Suddenly no purchaser is asking to negotiate price or reduce order demand. If you were making chips you’d want that maintained for years out. OPEC-like production coordination move to impact price? Who knows?

Don’t get me started on putting these things everywhere. Does my fridge need to know what is inside so it can let Amazon know? Or whoever pays the manufacturer to spy on my fridge content? How many other devices have chips just for this purpose? To spy on how many coffees I made? How many times I flushed the toilet? Etc.? I’m ok with fewer chips in my life to be honest, but that’s beside the point of chip supply stories.

#76 Wrk.dover on 10.31.21 at 9:44 am

I just perused e bay lp’s, and entered a few names.

I wish it was as easy as calling my broker to sell all at those good used prices.

I could buy Sail Away and then some.

#77 Tired on 10.31.21 at 10:36 am

Wrk.dover

I’ve found the best way to get an idea of vinyl prices is Discogs.com

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.21 at 10:37 am

Speaking of a Looming apocalypse.

Metaverse ( also known as Facebook).

Zukerberg’s latest foray into the unknown “virtual world” where everyone will wear Oculus headgear to do just about anything..

Or as a New York Times reporter opined,
” An increasingly irrelevant mish mash of Boomer dominated swill consisting of pet videos and angry partisan opinions”

#79 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 11:54 am

Warren Buffett facts

I think it’s pretty safe to say no one else here has studied Warren Buffett as much as I have. I will correct a few items below:

#59 Sail Away on 10.30.21 at 8:00 pm
#53 secular bull and bear on 10.30.21 at 7:24 pm
#34 Sail Away on 10.30.21 at 3:40 pm

Warren Buffett’s ten-year bet is as applicable today as ever

——–

warren buffet should take his own advice. he hasn’t been able to beat the SP500 since 1998. that’s 21 years and counting. he’s been severely under performing since 2009

——–

Exactly Buffett’s point: nobody, including him, is liable to beat the US market index over the long term. It takes a wise and humble man to acknowledge that.

Buffett does not recommend people invest in Berkshire, but instead in the index.

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If Buffett beating the S&P 500 index means Berkshire stock did better than the total return on the S&P 500 here are the years Berkshire (Buffett) beat the index since 1998:

98, 00, 01,02, 04, 06, 07,08, 10, 12,13,14, 16,17,18

Berkshire trailed in 99, 03,05,09, 11, 15, 19 and 20

That 15 years beating and 8 years trailing.

This from the table at the front of the annual report.

I recall Buffett said he does think he can beat the index personally on small amounts of money but that it is difficult on billions much less hundreds of billions. Last I heard he still thought Berkshire could still edge out the S&P 500 over the years.

He said he has NEVER ever recommended anyone invest in Berkshire. Never ever.

He has said the S&P 500 is a great investment for most people and directed his wife’s money after his death to be I believe 10% in U.S. T bills and 90% in the S&P 500. (If it was not 10% it was 5% but I think it was 10% he said)

When claiming to say what Warren Buffer said, get your facts straight. I am watching.

#80 Shawn Allen on 10.31.21 at 12:01 pm

Crowdedelevatorfartz

About unions in Cape Breton.

What you said sounds right. I took it a little easy on them because I still have friends and family there. And my main warning talking about coal was that we have an actual example of a huge useful energy source being left in the ground in Canada while still mined extensively world wide . The highest cost oil will be the first to be stranded. Saudi Arabia will be the last place pumping most likely, certainly not Alberta.

The other lesson was that basically NOTHING came along to replace the former coal exports of Cape Breton. The economy and population withered.

#81 Barb on 10.31.21 at 1:23 pm

#65
“…canceling your subscription is as painful and complicated as possible.”

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Same with trying to change a date (or cancel) travel insurance bought online. Pacific Blue Cross in my case.
Burned their “customer experience” page on their customer satisfaction questionnaire, received after purchase (oh…and CC charge of course).

Will never purchase travel insurance online again.

#82 chalkie on 11.01.21 at 2:10 pm

Biden is not getting any younger, every day one can see the pressure on Biden, at his age its not healthy for him.
I could easily see Biden resigning and passing the torch to Kamala Harris sometime within the next year, “hang on”, the ride is going to be rough for both the Democrats’ and Republicans this year, the fight is just starting.
The markets will be in turmoil shortly.