The delivery

Nora’s new baby arrived earlier this year. What she did after delivery may surprise you. Here’s her maternal MSU:

I have been an avid reader of your blog for the last few years. Through the most tired days of my pregnancy and the hectic newborn phase, I haven’t missed a single post, not even while I was in the hospital giving birth. Reading your daily post might have been one of the first things I did after birth, just after calling our families. Thank you for providing a refreshingly different viewpoint on real estate and tirelessly cutting through the BS with wit and sarcasm.

Okay, I’m honoured. Have baby. Call mom. Read blog. Seems reasonable. The least we can do now is help Nora with some questions about financing the squirt’s future. Seems her in-laws were incredibly generous and are gifting $150,000 for her son’s future expenses – private school, maybe, or university. She and hubs already have maxed-out RRSPs and tax-free accounts, and will be funding an RESP (the easiest place on the planet to get a 20% instant return). The gift money will go into a joint non-reg account. They’re happy long-term renters, so no pesky mortgage to worry about. No loans. No debt. It’s all good.

“I have two questions,” she says.

First, I understand that the gift of cash itself is not taxed, but am unclear on what happens to the income generated by the $150k or any future capital gains. Would that be attributed back to my in-laws, or my husband? Second, as we don’t know when we would use the funds or for what purpose, though it would likely be 5-10 years away at the earliest, would it be better to choose a more conservative allocation, say 30% equities/70% fixed, or something more like 50%/50%, or even something else altogether like GICs?

Well, Nora, the gifted money is indeed untaxed as it comes into your family’s hands. Once you put it into a non-registered joint account all income generated is attributed to you, the account owners. Not to your husband. Not to his parents. (To be squeaky-clean compliant with the CRA, the money should be gifted to you both. Not just him, by the way. And read the comments further down about an in-trust account.)

Of course, most capital gains will be unrealized for a while, and your objective here is growth, not income. But whatever returns are realized can be split between you equally. If you pay someone to professionally manage the funds, the fee will be deductible from taxable income.

How to invest? What to buy?

First, understand why you’re investing. It’s for the benefit of Junior’s education (unless he becomes a TikTok influencer or a child rock star), and unlikely to be tapped for 15 years or even two decades. In that time the money could quadruple, to $600,000 if you realize a gain of 7% annually. What a boost! But that will not come from holding GICs.

The only reason you’d pick conservative investments is emotion – not being able to bear your baby taking an investment loss. It’s the same driver for many parents when they load up RESPs with brain-dead guaranteed investment certificates. But that’s a mistake. The funds are invested for a l-o-n-g period of time. Income is not a factor. Unrealized capital gains can accumulate (tax-free in a registered plan). We all know, understand and expect that the economy in 2030 or 2040 will be a lot bigger than it is now, and growthy assets – especially diversified, low-cost, liquid ETFs – will reflect that.

So why not go 100% equities?

Because you’re human, you worry about volatility and your instincts are to protect your child. Having a balanced and diversified approach is the best option. If a recession happens (guaranteed at some point in the next decade) or another pandemic strikes or this climate thingy gets out of control or inflation and interest rates rage, the portfolio should lessen volatility and help preserve capital. Just look at how this worked when Covid crashed stocks last March. Or the experience of the credit crisis. People with balance sleep at night and live longer.

In short, stay 60/40 in the portfolio.

Now, should you set up an in-trust account?

Most financial institutions can help you establish an informal trust. You are the donors. The kid is the beneficiary. If the growth in the account is primarily through realized capital gains (and the thing is set up correctly) then the child pays the tax – which will be nil. Once your offspring hits 18 all gains and income are taxable in his/her hands, whether the account remains in-trust or is transferred.

But a caution: if parents are named as trustees as well as donors to an in-trust account then capital gains will be attributed back to them. To avoid this, the grandparents could remain as donors while the parents act as trustees, with the child as beneficiary.

You can see how having a child is probably easier than investing for one. But then, what do I know?

About the picture: “This is Peanut,” writes William, in Uxbridge. “She’s a female French Bulldog and this picture was taken when she was about six months ago. She is two now, this past January.”

92 comments ↓

#1 Prince Polo on 10.29.21 at 1:46 pm

I haven’t missed a single post, not even while I was in the hospital giving birth.

Talk about a dedicated blog doggy! She read the post while giving birth!!! Happy weekend y’all.

#2 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 1:56 pm

That was the ultimate MSU.

#3 TurnerNation on 10.29.21 at 1:59 pm

Life in a Former First World Country. Of course all you will heard from our leaders is ‘Climate’ – a global lockdown. (Those not on board were all purged Jan 2020, the excuse was “holiday travel’ – recall this?

.Edmonton bus service to be reduced Monday with 15 operators placed on leave for rejecting covid-19 vaccination policy (edmontonsun.com)

.BC surgeries, tests postponed as 4,000 unvaxxed workers put on leave (vancouversun.com)

.TTC plans service cuts starting in November because of workers who haven’t complied with vaccine mandate | The Toronto Star (thestar.com)

Canadian food banks prepare for ‘tidal wave’ of new clients (kitchener.ctvnews.ca)


Life in Kanada. No rich people allowed!

https://twitter.com/i/events/1453770473830068229
Toronto’s first ever car condo is coming to the city and some housing experts are calling it ‘disrespectful’
…Core Development Group has also released plans to build a vehicle showcase facility in Toronto’s Leaside neighbourhood, with 84 units over three floors. Photo via @TorontoStar

———–
———–

For Dolce.

In BC Covid was 7th leading case of death, average age of death 84.
PAGE 13:
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/2021-10-21-Data-Summary.pdf

#4 Roial1 on 10.29.21 at 2:02 pm

Garth, sure wish you’d been around when I was born.

My parents might have fared far better as would have been me.

Took a lifetime to get where I am, (comfortably retired).

Thanks for the GOOD advice for the young of today.

#5 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 2:07 pm

#158 Quintilian on 10.29.21 at 11:16 am
#149 IHCTD9
“Are you really cool with paying an inordinate amount of taxes for life to cover the bill for policy that has made us curmudgeons filthy rich?”

Curmudgeons are not filthy rich, most working stiff boomers have nothing more than the house, which is a lotto ticket with an expiry date and it is a safe bet that most will not cash it in.

The Cons created the housing bubble, the Libs kept it going because if they hadn’t it would have been political suicide.

The Libs, like many other governments, from countries with housing bubbles, hoped a black swan event could pop the bubble.

Covid made it worse, but that doesn’t mean something else won’t pop it.
_____

I don’t disagree. But it’s a lotto ticket you won’t get, not like that. Sell now or later – they’ll still make a mint. Many boomers and Gen X also invested on top of paying off an SFD. Regular folks were able to do that in the Old Canada.

It’s also a lotto ticket that was bought and paid for via monetary and fiscal policy. Those policies have future ramifications for you – namely servicing the Everest of debt they created. You’ll do so your entire life. You’ll pay more for less – unless something remarkable happens.

I’d be a little pissed if I were in your shoes. Billions in interest every year forever, biggest line item on the budget is seniors benefits, houses in your hood average 1.8 Mil.

Obviously you and I are different – but my big picture evidently looks a lot different than yours. I think I would mind paying ever more new taxes, while watching the safety net and services crumble.

#6 Stephladimir Harputin on 10.29.21 at 2:18 pm

Garth, that dog is better looking than you.

(That’s my MFU for today, Turner.)

You forgot to mention, btw, that it was under my watch that the CESG was pumped up, to make RESPs more effective.

To all the children: you are welcome!

#7 What a boost! on 10.29.21 at 2:25 pm

“What a boost!”

Public service announcement for AstraZeneca recipients. Please get your boost soon.

If you’re over 70 – get on that boost quickly as well.

#8 Faron on 10.29.21 at 2:30 pm

#161 Dr V on 10.29.21 at 11:30 am

151 Sailo

Yeah, exactly. Tahsis and Ocean Falls have the common feature of being at the landward end of a fjord/inlet oriented more or less into storm winds. It’s one thing to force air over a orographic barrier (mountains). It’s an additional squeeze when an air mass is forced to converge laterally as it is in a V-shaped inlet (v shape in plan view).

In addition to the funnelling, the Effingham site also has lee-side convergence going for it. Cat’s Ears and Triple peak are relatively high, so air can be funnelled around that barrier coming from up Kennedy River then Marion Ck. and the other direction up Effingham. They meet right where that station is.

The last bit is that rain (and snow) gets blown downwind of where the droplets form. It’s possible that the orographic precip that forms over Cat’s Ears and Triple winds up landing at the Effingham site downwind in typical storm conditions.

If you get really bored, look up some of the results from OlympEx which was an intensive effort to understand orographic precipitation processes using the Olympic Mountains as a laboratory.

https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/home/field-campaigns/olympex

Lots of very technical data, but also a lot of on-the-ground precipitation measurements and the numbers were staggering. They also happened to luck out and get a very wet El Nino with one of the wettest runs of weather we’ve had in a while in our area.

Anyhow, probably TMI. If any of you Islanders want to help with that expedition to measure rain, all that’s needed is a decent 4×4. I’d suspend my personal ban on meeting blog dogs in order to exploit your vehicular resources. You can hike up to the 5040 hut while I grovel in the valley under a tarp. LOL.

#9 Comedy @ Club 54 on 10.29.21 at 2:40 pm

Mike Ward has his rights to free speech affirmed by Canadian Supreme Court in a 5 to 4 decision.

They got it right, but note the very close score.

Freedom of Speech in Canada is a on very thin ice.

#10 Dolce Vita on 10.29.21 at 2:45 pm

#3 TurnerNation

You cannot believe anything that comes out of that Province.

For instance:

“Secrecy over B.C.’s true number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients” – Sept. 23, 2021

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/secrecy-over-b-c-s-true-number-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-1.5595394

OR

“COVID-19: Leaked reports show B.C. health authorities withholding data from the public” – May 06, 2021

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/covid-19-leaked-reports-show-health-authorities-withholding-data-from-the-public

——

You know TN I have berated Bonnie, John & Adrian on Twitter since early this year for being a bunch of BS artists trying to Social Engineer the truth away & living up to the BC Myth (later on):

1. Basic Arithmetic.
2. Occam’s Razor.

Guess what, I was correct.

I mean look at their testing even now and this is much better than late last year, early this year where they were at 50% of the National Average.

Remember me “Don’t Test, Don’t Count BC” – not much has changed:

https://i.imgur.com/UHxIQ1e.png

Did not even bother to look at your Report link ’cause you know it will be stylized along these lines, the BC Myth they keep telling themselves:

We have Orca’s, Salmon, the only one’s on Earth with a coastline, trees and mountains, a supposed laid back West Coast lifestyle & it never rains in YVR (nor does it the sun shine either); hence, that will render us harmless from Covid.

Well, THAT worked out well now didn’t it.

————-

BC NDP.
JOHN HORGAN IS LOOKING OUT FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY DURING THE PANDEMIC. *
[or…What they don’t know, won’t hurt them]

* https://www.bcndp.ca/

#11 Quintilian on 10.29.21 at 2:47 pm

Nora, Please, Please and Please.
Keep the child away from the curmudgeons, especial the anti-intellectual ones. ( crowdedelevatorfartz types)

Make sure the child gets a liberal arts education, but with an extended minor in Chemistry or Economics.

It is a constantly changing world, and learning how to learn will be the child’s guarantee to a healthy mind and body, and financial success.

#12 Dolce Vita on 10.29.21 at 3:07 pm

#9 Comedy @ Club 54

Made Lefty BBC too:

“Mike Ward: Comedian who mocked young disabled singer wins free speech case” – 2 hr ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59015486

Good or bad depending upon your personal tastes, Free Speech:

Alive in Canada.

Up next, Dave Chappelle…

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 3:16 pm

@#2 IHCTD9
“That was the ultimate MSU.”

+++

Close but “the ultimate” would be if she named the child Garth …. and it was a girl.

#14 TurnerNation on 10.29.21 at 3:20 pm

– For the Schlock Pickers I like CORN.US ETF – If there is runaway food price inflation this one will do it:

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CORN

——————–

Well well. So this is how they will force people out of the rural areas and into the fetid crowded UN Smart Cities? The mandates – that may cause rural health care and hospitals to shutter over loss of staffing?

As I’ve been noting for years on here no first responders means no home or business insurance coverage.
A very sinister plan is unfolding for Kanada.

#1 TurnerNation on 07.16.20 at 2:27 pm
“How many times have I posted here that we will be herded into the UN Smart cities.”

#10 TurnerNation on 04.13.21 at 2:13 pm
” What I was getting at a while ago on here. How to force people out of the rural areas and sustainability, and get them into the UN Smart Cites – stacked with condos? Insurance denial. And/or cutting rural services (First Responders).”

————
————

— Control over travel. Comrade so you wish to leave the country? Not so fast.
From social media, an account of Toronto’s airport hellish:

“”Just when travelling couldnt get any more complicated terminal 1 in toronto only allows one flight at a time to access customs and security. By the way, no food or drink while you are waiting and no signage either. So….you have to show up a min of 2 hours going to the US or AC wont take your bags and then you wait for an hour to get into line for customs…to wait another hour. I asked why everyone travelling is ushered into a massive lounge and the response is…we are trying something new! Insanity!
I have been from line to line and there is no signage up . I have been in a line now for over an hour and havent even been to security””

#15 Sail Away on 10.29.21 at 3:29 pm

#11 Quintilian on 10.29.21 at 2:47 pm

Nora, Please, Please and Please.
Keep the child away from the curmudgeons, especial the anti-intellectual ones. ( crowdedelevatorfartz types)

Make sure the child gets a liberal arts education, but with an extended minor in Chemistry or Economics.

———

Oh sure, Q: give advice. Do you have demonstrated and verifiable successes in your life that lead you believe your advice is any good?

I don’t know your financial situation or stability, but I’d guess it’s lower on both counts than Crowdie’s, who you feel comfortable slagging.

#16 Dolce Vita on 10.29.21 at 3:39 pm

#11 Quintilian

Read Plato’s:

The Republic
(Kallipolis, Philosopher Kings* [not the band])

c. 375 BC

* Aristotle was wrong.

You only have to read Machiavelli to know how well that fool’s errand ended up 1,800 years later.

#17 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 3:43 pm

#167 Philco on 10.29.21 at 12:17 pm
#149 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 8:54 am
#73 Quintilian on 10.28.21 at 5:23 pm

Enjoy the tax increase.
I don’t mind them; I look at the bigger picture.
______
Ha your a brave man tackling that IHTCD9!
Im swammped today so I just say this.
Its NEVER enough. As my parter says.
” They could get a 100% and they still couldn’t balance the budget”
——- —

Your partner is bang on the money regarding these Libs. Thanks why I keep my financial support to a minimum, it all goes to waste, so why feed them?

These next 4 years will be a popcorn gulping good time.

I eagerly await Trudeau’s response as to how we are going to lower the flag to half mast for Remembrance Day, when it’s already been sitting there for 5 months.

#18 Michael in-north-york on 10.29.21 at 3:49 pm

#152 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 9:39 am

#86 Michael in-north-york on 10.28.21 at 6:16 pm

Yep. In Canada, immigrants as a whole are net-positive for the budget, bringing in more in tax payments than they are consuming in services.
____

I feel bad for them.

On a purely selfish level, immigration covers all my entitlements and services going into the future – so that is good. On a personal level, these dudes are going to slave for life to get half of what immigrants could expect decades ago. They don’t know it, but Canada is transitioning into a raw deal for future newcomers.
===

You shouldn’t feel bad for them. Many still get a much better life in Canada than they would in the country of origin.

Taxes are high here, but what’s left after is sufficient for a decent living.

In many other places, I won’t name any but there are quite a few – you don’t have any property or any rights unless you are part of the ruling criminal gang. Doesn’t matter how much you work. I’ve been there and know what I am talking about.

#19 Lisa on 10.29.21 at 4:01 pm

Not needing the money for 15 or 20 years is a best case scenario. There are many reasons why they may end up using some of the money sooner. Their child may become diagnosed with special needs of some sort, such as autism, which will require private therapy which tends to be pricey. This is way more common than you think. The publicly available therapy often has long wait lists or is substandard. Or you may need or prefer a private school for your child at some point, for any number of reasons. The public schools are not good for dealing with certain types of kids. If your kid is one of those kids, it sucks, but it also sucks if your kid is in a classroom full of those kids. My husband and I have spent well over 50K on private therapy for one of our children. We also last year spent over 30K on private school tuition. Having some money around gives you options. Now, that doesn’t mean the money should be invested in a different way – but just be aware you may need it sooner than Garth suggests!!

#20 Faron on 10.29.21 at 4:04 pm

Because this is a rain blog, here are the top 10 non ECCC precip totals from the past 10 days for all of BC. I feel comfortable excluding ECCC stations in this case because they tend to lie in valley bottoms where rains aren’t heaviest.:

TS EFFINGHAM — 838.6
Kennedy Lake — 521.4
Sooke Dam FWx — 463.899
Heather Mountain Upper — 389
Spuzzum Creek — 328
SUMMIT — 309.4
TS ARTLISH — 297.2
Jump Creek — 294
Mt. Strachan Precip — 290.5
TS SAN JUAN — 280.2

#21 Andy on 10.29.21 at 4:26 pm

Hey Garth & Everyone –

Is something crazy about to burst on the markets? I just got this scary email this afternoon, usually these guys are pretty reasonable about market fluctuation stuff:

“Dear Altucher Confidential Reader,

This is one of the most urgent messages I’ve ever sent you…

My colleagues Alan Knuckman and Dave Gonigam recorded a quick emergency video clip to make sure you knew exactly what’s going on.

According to Alan, we may just be days away from one of the biggest stock market selloffs in history…

With some experts already saying that the market could drop at least 80%… and that a “day of reckoning” has been a long time coming…

And once it hits… It’s going to be an absolute bloodbath.

And it looks like it could be coming Monday….

Which means you have a big decision to make.

On the one hand, you can choose to just ignore this message, and come Monday you risk being one of the millions of lambs that gets lead to the slaughter.”
————

Yikes, eh!?

Anyone else get this – what do you think?

(Maybe just a Halloween scare, I hope!)

Every single day some nutjob somewhere, trying to scare people out of their money, sends out a message like that. Fear sells. Don’t buy it. – Garth

#22 Another Deckchair on 10.29.21 at 4:29 pm

I think that the “Great Awakening” is on the horizon.

Interesting time for investing directions for those with a long timeline.

Our government seems hell-bent on reducing emissions from fossil fuels (which I agree with) but has *no idea* what fossil fuels are used for.

Very interesting times ahead – very few first-worlders have had to do with resource scarcity. When (like in some countries today) the lights go out for a day or two and the iPhones can’t be charged, maybe people will finally decide to reduce the total amount of energy each of us uses.

Then the really interesting part – how do we actually reduce energy usage? I mean, most people can barely spell Physics, and having a masters degree in TicTok is not going to help much.

Those who know will make zillions.

#23 Dogman01 on 10.29.21 at 4:38 pm

#174 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 1:45 pm

Maybe you just live in a special place where new Canadians who are exclusively rich like to live?
I’ll let the 90/hr week working immigrants over here know that you and your rich acquaintances in BC are laughing their asses off at them. I’m sure they’ll appreciate it.

———————————–
From what I have experienced by far the majority of the immigrants in my town live in self-selected self contained areas of the city. Many work in mass low paid jobs I bet 90\hr a week, others run small businesses once again I bet 90\hr a week , seem to have a monopoly of the cell phone kiosks. The Amazon Distribution center is likely 80-90% newish immigrants as they have the grit to put up with that place.

Now I am sure there are some coming here with riches and slip right into executive positions, but characterizing it as a general norm is a disingenuous narrative.

Those that try to paint Immigration as all positive are just creating a spin narrative as are those whom say it is all negative.
Immigration deserves a through cost benefit analysis in Canada however TPTB have ensured it is a Taboo issue and can’t be discussed.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 4:40 pm

@#11 Quintillian dollars in debt for my Bachelor of Arts

“especial the anti-intellectual ones. ( crowdedelevatorfartz types).

++++

I’ll see your “intellect” and raise you “common sense”.

#25 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 4:42 pm

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 3:16 pm
@#2 IHCTD9
“That was the ultimate MSU.”

+++

Close but “the ultimate” would be if she named the child Garth …. and it was a girl.

—————————————

It doesn’t matter because the patriarchy is winning:

https://babylonbee.com/news/patriarchy-declares-victory-after-conquering-womens-sports-restrooms-movie-roles

#26 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 4:45 pm

I have a question for blog dogs, from my immigrant community I’ve learned that ~130 families have returned to old country in last few months, and more are planning to do. This is driven by ever increasing cost of living, our response to pandemic, and generally concerned about prospects in Canada for them and their kids.

Any other immigrants here hearing similar stories in their communities? just curious if this is an isolated case, or it is wide spread trend?

#27 willworkforpickles on 10.29.21 at 4:46 pm

The number 1 thing Canada and the US need worry about is taking on more debt…they will and much much more. Forget all the doublespeak to the contrary.
And better to forget climate control with it. The worlds top polluters are increasing pollution levels, not reducing them.
It will turn out as a costly losing battle that is going to greatly add to the real and gravest problem of all in North America. Debt. And more debt to be added doing nothing to fix a problem that is already facing far too many headwinds to repair.
With the comment section weighing in with factors real and imagined regarding the future economic health and well being of individuals and country…the one factor entirely detrimental to health and economy remains overlooked, unforeseen and/or just plain ignored.
War! WWIII.
Its coming and it will hit us harder here in the homeland than anyone wants to imagine. Its the very equation everyone obliterates from their mindset.
Unthinkable and unimaginable.
Blocking it from ever entering our minds will not and cannot prevent it from becoming reality.
As the world roils in what’s to become economic bedlam, world war will follow.
Advanced military technical wizardry (superseding US military might) rising up, should have been where at home US dollars were spent as current and future enemies have been doing all along.
Yes, and superseding US technological and military might.
This gap is growing and will continue relentlessly going forward.
The US won the first two…no chance it can or will in
three.
Increasing national debt needlessly and recklessly will bring that day closer.

#28 Wrk.dover on 10.29.21 at 4:54 pm

#157 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 11:13 am
A warning for Alberta

Could much of the oil and gas be left stranded in the ground? Sounds crazy.

But consider a past energy giant. Cape Breton Nova Scotia exported huge amounts of coal for decades. Mines and ports were busy. Today nada. The coal is still there but no longer mined. Since 2001 Cape Breton has imported all coal for the big Lingan coal Power station.

Somewhere starting around 1980 Cape Breton’s coal which is mostly under the ocean near the shore became uneconomic. The mines gradually shut down. Even a newer mine at Donkin proved uneconomic. A combination of the difficult location of the coal, probably poor management and maybe some union issues.
___________________________

Not that I ever get any in my stocking but, there are two types of coal, one very dirty to burn, the other one not so much. C.B. has the bad coal, kind of like comparing Texas crude to the the oil in Alb…wait a minute. Could that Alberta energy be abandoned too?

Personally, I hope not, even when I drink the Scotch.

M68NS

#29 Sail Away on 10.29.21 at 5:11 pm

#21 Andy on 10.29.21 at 4:26 pm

Hey Garth & Everyone –

Is something crazy about to burst on the markets? I just got this scary email this afternoon, usually these guys are pretty reasonable about market fluctuation stuff:

“Dear Altucher Confidential Reader,

[Doom, doom, doooooom on Monday]”

———

Andy,

Yes, it’s true, this unrevealed and unexpected stock market Armageddon is going to occur before Monday.

All the smart people are going to all cash today.

Better get on it ASAP and… oh… uh oh… it unfortunately looks like the markets have closed for the week.

Sorry.

#30 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 5:11 pm

#157 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 11:13 am

Most natural resources, mines anyway, leave a large amount of resource behind due to economic reasons, including oil, gas, and coal. It has a lot to do with the concentration of the resource and the accessibility, as well as the amount of drilling or digging that needs to be done. The resources in place can be 10 times higher than the “economically recoverable resource”. And higher prices usually don’t help because they are met by higher costs.

However the oil sands have a long way to go before they reach that problem. It’s mostly open pit mining near the surface and the major problem is that the mine face is moving farther from the upgraders so transportation costs are going up. They can’t just run it on a conveyor belt anymore. And some of the deeper locations that are way too deep for open pit mining are being successfully developed using SAGD. Expensive, but doable.

I can’t remember the numbers exactly but it is about 100 years to go on oil sands at current production rates, which rivals coal and exceeds oil and gas.

I hate to give Faron anything to go on but the fact is the fossil fuel age will end whether we jump off the climate panic cliff or not. It is a finite resource and all mines and wells eventually deplete. There will be lots of resource left behind, but it will cost to much to extract. It’s an EROEI thing. Once it costs more energy to get the energy out of the ground than you get out of the ground, you stop drilling. (Some production might occur for chemical feedstocks, but that it.)

So don’t worry about Alberta. Trudeau and his merry band of climate warriors can only affect things for so long before economics take over. Of course in something like 50 years from now we’ll all be screwed because the fossil fuels will be getting scarce and wind and solar cannot help because they don’t work. It’s actually getting on too late to build nuclear, but as they say “The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is today.”

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 5:18 pm

@#26 Comrade
“I have a question for blog dogs, from my immigrant community I’ve learned that ~130 families have returned to old country in last few months, and more are planning to do. ”

+++

Hmmmm

I guess it depends.
If a Covid infested country with a corrupt dictator is more appealing than Canuckda…. go for it.

Canada will be in deep doo doo if the immigrants take a long hard look at this country’s politically correct unisex agenda and billion dollar cash hand outs to everyone that screams “historic racism” and say…… no thanks.

Taxes up and birthrates down…..

#32 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 5:24 pm

Yes, Energy Resources can be left i the ground

28 Wrk.dover on 10.29.21 at 4:54 pm responded to me after quoting me:

#157 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 11:13 am
A warning for Alberta

Could much of the oil and gas be left stranded in the ground? Sounds crazy.

But consider a past energy giant. Cape Breton Nova Scotia exported huge amounts of coal for decades. Mines and ports were busy. Today nada. The coal is still there but no longer mined. Since 2001 Cape Breton has imported all coal for the big Lingan coal Power station.

Somewhere starting around 1980 Cape Breton’s coal which is mostly under the ocean near the shore became uneconomic. The mines gradually shut down. Even a newer mine at Donkin proved uneconomic. A combination of the difficult location of the coal, probably poor management and maybe some union issues.
___________________________

Not that I ever get any in my stocking but, there are two types of coal, one very dirty to burn, the other one not so much. C.B. has the bad coal, kind of like comparing Texas crude to the the oil in Alb…wait a minute. Could that Alberta energy be abandoned too?

Personally, I hope not, even when I drink the Scotch.

M68NS

*********************************
Agreed Cape Breton had mostly or maybe entirely thermal coal as opposed to metallurgical coal (used in steel making). It also had a steel plant for decades so I think it had some metallurgical coal. I don’t recall that there was any problem with Cape Breton’s coal. I don’t think it was dirtier than other thermal coal. It was just hard to access and therefore expensive to mine.

But the point is thermal coal is still used in massive quantities around the world especially in China. Yet Cape Breton no longer exports ANY coal at all. Its abundant coal sits stranded unused and uneconomic in the ground. It now imports said bad thermal coal for the big electrical power plant at Lingan and I think also the one at Pt. Aconi. Prince Mine at Pt Aconi was among those shut down.

Alberta is now riding good times with high oil prices once again. It could come to an end. Oil might still be burned in this world. But oil sands may be too costly. Cape Breton provides the example.

And, as I noted Cape Breton was almost completely unable to find anything new to export. So much so that the rail line shut down. And the population declined by a third or more in a time period where Canada’s population grew by 60%. The typical person in Cape Breton is now probably pushing 60 years old. Nothing against Cape Breton. Just a warning. Diversifying the economy away from something like oil and gas is very difficult. The people can diversify away to other places instead.

#33 the future on 10.29.21 at 5:27 pm

With college tuition increasing by over 10% a year, it might cost a million dollars to go to college in 20 years. How much would a house cost in 20 years. It averaged around 80,000 thirty years back. Now it averages over a million dollars. In 20 years, it may be tens of millions. Kids cost money and it is going to cost a whole lot more in the coming years thanks to the huge deficits and inflation.

#34 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 5:33 pm

To Nonplused

I agree to a large extent. Cape Breton’s coal was mostly always hard to get at. Oil sands may remain economic.

As I mentioned there were some Strip Mine opportunities for cheaper mining. The people ran those operations off. NIMBY!

If oil simply becomes obsolete, my point was that it can be impossible to replace that. Alberta has no great natural advantage in most of the industries that might be hoped to replace oil and gas exports. Clearly no advantage in wind and solar and also it costs too much to ship electricity and there are almost no transmission lines to the south or east.

#35 Faron on 10.29.21 at 5:37 pm

And here are the top 10 ECCC stations’ 10-day precip. totals:

Port Mellon– 175.8
Squamish Airport — 175.6
Port Alberni — 166.9
Callaghan Valley — 152.2
Hope — 144
Hope Airport — 110
Agassiz — 102.5
Fanny Island — 94.8
Sandspit Airport — 93.9
Victoria Gonzales — 93

And, no, I’m not blaming climate change.

#36 truefacts on 10.29.21 at 5:49 pm

Question for Sailaway (or anyone else)
(from previous post – condensed)…

Is it better to realize capital gains now, expecting the CG inclusion rate will increase?

Time period: 10 years
Capital gains: $10M
Nominal tax rate: 50%
Capital gains inclusion now: 50%
Capital gains inclusion in 10 years: 75%
Rate of return: 10%

Option 1:
Realize capital gains now, After-tax total: $15M.
Option 2:
Do nothing now, After-tax total: $16.2M
So… over 10 years, it appears 8.3% better to realize nothing now…
________________________________________

My question (and I’m not trying to be disagreeable)but I’ve been mulling this all over for a while…

IMO, it boils down to the 10% rate of return. I understand that is the long-term return rate, but interest rates have been a tailwind for 40 years (now becoming a headwind) and markets are at all-time highs based on a number of metrics and our population is aging rapidly like Japan a few decades ago…

So is 10% a reasonable estimate from here or is a much lower rate more reasonable over the next decade?

#37 Docile Vat on 10.29.21 at 5:52 pm

#26 Comrade

Yup. People are leaving.

My mechanic sold his shop, didn’t even care about the business, took the money for the building and went to Spain.

Paid 20% of his building money for a castle with a pool, weather is killer, entire Europe within reach with cheap flights, exceptional rail or roads.

No snow. No crap weather 6 months a year.

The real question is…what are we still doing here?

Dolce, as an example, still keeps in touch with his Canadian hobbies, but in reality, he wants nothing to do with it – as his choice of residence clearly indicates.

He probably comes back here to remind himself why not to be here.

Imagine what happens once this reconciliation is sorted out by law. I can see a scenario where the country falls apart.

#38 Faron on 10.29.21 at 5:52 pm

#30 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 5:11 pm
#157 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 11:13 am

Ol’ reliable. No, we will not burn all economically viable fossil fuels. Or, more accurately, the economics of said burning will become extremely poor relative to now much faster than the remaining resource is depleted. i.e. there will be stiff penalties or taxes on CO2 emission that will make pulling coal, gas and oil out of the ground for combustion a fool’s errand.

It’s a near certainty that, if we burn all economically recoverable fossil fuel, large portions of the planet will be uninhabitable to all animals that rely on evaporation to cool themselves. That would be utter collapse of ecosystems along broad swaths of the planet comparable to the extinction that killed the dinos. Not going to happen.

Pretty sure even the most ignorant (Nonplused) and/or most greedy (Koch Brothers) and/or most dependent (Alberta, Saudi Arabia) of fossil fuel lovers will be on board long, long before then. Between now and that time, the amount of hell we are put through depends on people like Nonplused gaining an ever so slight clue regarding what they know (little) and don’t know (a lot) and an inkling of an ability to project forward the fact that things are changing fast and the implications are not good. You aren’t a contrarian here Nonplused, you are quickly becoming an anachronistic goon in the same way you were when gabbing about the 2020 US election results last year.

#39 Smoking More on 10.29.21 at 5:54 pm

Hope you bought some tobacco stocks.

Pandemic looks to have been a cigarette sales booster like no disgusting warning label ever could be!

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/10/27/1049638567/cigarette-sales-increase-smoking-pandemic

#40 Joseph R. on 10.29.21 at 5:55 pm

#30 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 5:11 pm

One looks at Yesterday’s comment section and sees a bunch of little boys.

Trudeau built 2 pipelines for Alberta: Enbridge Line 3 (Built and in operations) and TransMountain expansion (Still in construction). Both of them are built under a federal mandate.

Trudeau will fight for Enbridge Line 5, which sends crude from Alberta to Quebec. Another gift to Alberta.

Quebec and the Maritimes don’t need that pipeline since they can get their oil by US Portland-Montreal Pipeline and by ship through Halifax.

The “Wexit” are idiots. Point and laugh! Any politician In Alberta committing sedition will make their province lose all pipeline access (Going East, West and South).

Kenny is now a joke in Alberta at a 20% approval rate. Trudeau saw it too. Can’t wait to watch him get eaten alive by his base in the next leadership review.

#41 Best of the Best on 10.29.21 at 5:57 pm

In case you missed it…

Top 1% of U.S. Earners Now Hold More Wealth Than All of the Middle Class

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/top-1-earners-hold-more-wealth-than-the-u-s-middle-class

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.29.21 at 6:10 pm

#168 the Jaguar on 10.29.21 at 12:45 pm
@#153 BillyBob on 10.29.21 at 10:29 am

Damn it! I missed Independent Czechoslovak State Day ,
but Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day is coming up on November 17th, so I get ready for that!

Nice to see a country appreciate these values instead of flag stealing, flag lowering, other forms of self flagellation…….
————
Hey Jagi,
Don’t make a fool of yourself.
You did not miss the independent Czechoslovak State Day.
Because there is no CZechoslovak State anymore.
Split up years ago.

#43 Longterm on 10.29.21 at 6:15 pm

Nora, this is a epic.

Seriously, set-up and in-trust account, pop in the money, choose 60/40 ETFs and leave it alone.

In the coming decades your job is then to teach your child about compounding, investing, future value of money, etc. If you/they leave the money untouched – preferably adding to it – until your kid is 30 years or old then you’ve just created the foundation for a dynasty.

Find a compound interest calculator on the internet and play around with some scenarios.

Just don’t blow it!

I

#44 Quintilian on 10.29.21 at 6:17 pm

#16 Dolce Vita on 10.29.21 at 3:39 pm

“#11 Quintilian

Read Plato’s:

The Republic
(Kallipolis, Philosopher Kings* [not the band])”

Have your read it?

If so how come you have not understood the Allegory of the Cave?

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.29.21 at 6:32 pm

#162 Damifino on 10.29.21 at 11:33 am
#139 WillinSC

…I do long for the old days of the comment section when it was helpful, entertaining and sometimes hilarious.
—————————–

Strange. I’ve been reading this blog since 2010 and can’t seem to recall any golden era of insightful feedback here in the steerage section.
 ————-
Well, I gotta agree.
I’m been around for awhile, and I’ve seen a lot of posters come and go.
CEF has also been around the bend a few times.
Other posters called him Fartz(I), 
But I found that disrespectful, so I started calling him CEF.
But the biggest idiot so far is PHILCO, who tries to emulate the Great Smoking Man.
I think he’s got the drinking part down.
But otherwise, he’s just a pathetic loser.

#46 Sail Away on 10.29.21 at 6:39 pm

#38 Faron on 10.29.21 at 5:52 pm

It’s a near certainty that, if we burn all economically recoverable fossil fuel, large portions of the planet will be uninhabitable to all animals that rely on evaporation to cool themselves.

——–

Ok, let’s assume that hypothetical scenario would play out.

After all fossil fuels are burnt, there will be no more to burn and reversion to zero fossil fuels will occur.

In the long run, the same scenario will play out in any case. No need to get all worked up about it.

#47 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 6:40 pm

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 5:18 pm

+++

Hmmmm

I guess it depends.
If a Covid infested country with a corrupt dictator is more appealing than Canuckda…. go for it.

—–

yeah, I was surprised, I personally know two families that did return, lived here 15+years, and another one going back in spring. Big reason is no one wants to enslaved themselves to million dollar mortgages and barely make it paycheck to paycheck after working their %$% off, while they can have somewhat decent life backhome with savings they have now. And pandemic response was the last straw that broke camel’s back and think that is just signs of really troubling times ahead.

Just curious to learn what other people are seeing, or hearing around, and if it is becoming more common.

#48 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 6:41 pm

#18 Michael in-north-york on 10.29.21 at 3:49 pm
#152 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 9:39 am

#86 Michael in-north-york on 10.28.21 at 6:16 pm

Yep. In Canada, immigrants as a whole are net-positive for the budget, bringing in more in tax payments than they are consuming in services.
____

I feel bad for them.

On a purely selfish level, immigration covers all my entitlements and services going into the future – so that is good. On a personal level, these dudes are going to slave for life to get half of what immigrants could expect decades ago. They don’t know it, but Canada is transitioning into a raw deal for future newcomers.
===

You shouldn’t feel bad for them. Many still get a much better life in Canada than they would in the country of origin.

Taxes are high here, but what’s left after is sufficient for a decent living.

In many other places, I won’t name any but there are quite a few – you don’t have any property or any rights unless you are part of the ruling criminal gang. Doesn’t matter how much you work. I’ve been there and know what I am talking about
——-

True, but things are really getting worse. My parents did all right, not rich but they achieved the “Canadian Dream”. They showed up, anglicized their names, learned English, got to work, and were rewarded. That was decades ago.

Today, I feel the deck is much more stacked against new arrivals. Part of that is everyone piling into the GTA/YVR, but the rest starts looking a little ugly. Cheap labour exploitation, both by Canucks and their own countrymen. Off the record (and social net) employment. Everyone from RE agents and land lords, to “immigration consultants” and lawyers want to cash in on the new Canadians to be.

Sure it still beats living in some other countries, but I’d like to think we could offer a better life to more folks than just those living in a hell hole. It used to be so, but you’ve probably noticed that we get very few immigrants from western countries these days…

#49 BillyBob on 10.29.21 at 6:49 pm

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.29.21 at 6:10 pm
#168 the Jaguar on 10.29.21 at 12:45 pm
@#153 BillyBob on 10.29.21 at 10:29 am

Damn it! I missed Independent Czechoslovak State Day ,
but Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day is coming up on November 17th, so I get ready for that!

Nice to see a country appreciate these values instead of flag stealing, flag lowering, other forms of self flagellation…….
————
Hey Jagi,
Don’t make a fool of yourself.
You did not miss the independent Czechoslovak State Day.
Because there is no CZechoslovak State anymore.
Split up years ago.

================================================

Yet, the good citizens of the Czech Republic regard the day – technically, “Den vzniku samostatného československého státu” – as one of the most important national holidays of the year.

Apparently, because they are very glad to be reminded of their freedom from the Austro-Hungarian state.

In light of this historical context perhaps an Austrian transplanted to a country that’s ashamed of it’s own flag isn’t the best person to be calling others fools? lol

#50 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 6:51 pm

Edmonton looking Busy

Driving around my suburb of Edmonton the last two days…

The traffic is definitely heavier than I seen since the BeforeTimes

Costco quite busy on a Thursday at 3 pm

(P.S. Inflation, got you down? shop at Costco – save money and make money for us Costco owners at the same time.)

SportChek and Mark’s very well stocked (what supply chain issue?) and looking busy. Canadian Tire is driving traffic with their Triangle Rewards and promotions.

Lots of expensive roadwork on the provincial highway that runs through. Alberta government is spending money it appears.

Apartments and commercial buildings still getting built.

No evidence of doom or gloom here. (But this is the most affluent corner of the Edmonton region.)

#51 Sail Away on 10.29.21 at 6:53 pm

#36 truefacts on 10.29.21 at 5:49 pm

Question for Sailaway (or anyone else)

My question (and I’m not trying to be disagreeable)but I’ve been mulling this all over for a while…

IMO, it boils down to the 10% rate of return. I understand that is the long-term return rate, but interest rates have been a tailwind for 40 years (now becoming a headwind) and markets are at all-time highs based on a number of metrics and our population is aging rapidly like Japan a few decades ago…

So is 10% a reasonable estimate from here or is a much lower rate more reasonable over the next decade?

——-

At a 5% rate of return, keeping all else the same, the 10-year situation is basically equivalent for both options. Lower return than that and the ‘realize now’ option comes out ahead. Higher return or longer time period and the ‘leave’ option is better.

Rate of return prediction is just a guess, but we’re currently at 4.4% inflation, so 10% return assumption is not unreasonable.

#52 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 7:07 pm

#26 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 4:45 pm
I have a question for blog dogs, from my immigrant community I’ve learned that ~130 families have returned to old country in last few months, and more are planning to do. This is driven by ever increasing cost of living, our response to pandemic, and generally concerned about prospects in Canada for them and their kids.

Any other immigrants here hearing similar stories in their communities? just curious if this is an isolated case, or it is wide spread trend?
——- —

Depending on what you read, between 30-40% of all immigrants end up leaving Canada within 20 years. Decades long trend going back to the 80’s Stats Can says 30+%, a University study (McMaster?) said 40ish %. Mostly single young Males.

That’s modern Canadian immigration for you. Most of them aren’t helpless refugees. The typical Canadian immigrant after 10 years or so speaks English, is Western educated, has a Canadian Passport, and years of Western work experience. In other words, they got options. The entire Western world quit having enough kids decades ago, so the world is their oyster. If things get too stupid here, they can just leave. Most of the immigrants I deal with in the GTA who are my age have worked all over the world.

There are also plenty who leave because they found things too tough. Even after years of effort. At some point you gotta make the call if it just isn’t working out. So they go back home.

#53 DON on 10.29.21 at 7:08 pm

#27 willworkforpickles

Nicely put!

New technologies like the earth orbiting supersonic weapons. Russia has been perfecting their defensive weapons. And then there’s the weapons that are still secrets. I am not so sure the US is showing all its cards…playing behind is a strategy.

Prior to the WW2 Hilter was secretly building an army to take back the land Germany lost in WW1. Basically the West was two busy/broke to stop them. Hilter was sly and did it bit by bit not to raise too much alarm. He was said to be creating more advanced weapons, game changers…lucky the War ended when it did is my thought.

At the moment allies and enemies are being identified. What way will South Korea go?

Unless we face an alien invasion or human nature improves the past is bound to recycle over and over again with incremental gains until ‘we’ finally reach a tipping point and evovle.

Dog bless our children.

@Comrade…the new World has lost its lustre and Covid has reminded others of the joy of family and that home feeling. I have a friend who is leaving Canada also…but she does love our wilderness.

#54 thomas on 10.29.21 at 7:28 pm

So they would rather let health care workers go who don’t want a vax and increase waiting lists than offer the alternative of rapid testing in many cases…hats off to these Conservative MPs…
With no rapid testing option offered in many cases, is this really about health or is it about power?

#55 the Jaguar on 10.29.21 at 7:29 pm

@#30 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 5:11 pm

Oh, hi NP. This one might interest you. About 56 minutes with Art Berman.

While some amuse themselves predicting the demise of Alberta, those reports appear exaggerated. Mix up a Presidente, put your feet up in front of the fire, and have a listen.

@ 16:00 ( approx) about ‘wind power’
@ 20:00 ( approx) about ‘coal’
@ 21:00 (approx) about Russia ( full disclosure, I love Putin & Russia, lol)
@ 35:00 (approx) about US Oil Security, the Revenge of the Old Economy, and other hard truths…
@ 47:00 (approx) about nuclear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB1eGDpEeQY

#56 Naz on 10.29.21 at 7:29 pm

Is there a benefit to use a portion to fund a family resp for the new baby and any potential future babies? If so what’s the right amount? Contribute $2k per child per year to max out the government contribution or just contribute the max allowed early on?

#57 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 7:37 pm

#32 Shawn Allen on 10.29.21 at 5:24 pm

Agreed Cape Breton had mostly or maybe entirely thermal coal as opposed to metallurgical coal (used in steel making). It also had a steel plant for decades so I think it had some metallurgical coal. I don’t recall that there was any problem with Cape Breton’s coal. I don’t think it was dirtier than other thermal coal. It was just hard to access and therefore expensive to mine.

—- ——.

Bituminous coal. They gasify it down to coke, and that is what fuels the old furnaces. I think the process is pretty much extinct, every mill out there seems to run electric arc furnaces to run scrap steel these days. Smelting new ore just costs too much.

#58 Nomad Geezer on 10.29.21 at 7:40 pm

Meanwhile back in Nova Scotia at last we closed on a house in Pictou this morning. Paid cash so no debt and didn’t need to touch our TSFA accounts full of ETFs, as per Garths instructions MSU. Having been homeless for four years we are starting to fill the house with furniture etc.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 7:48 pm

Uh oh.
A trickle of Flag raising has started……. 1st PEI….now this.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadas-flag-gesture-without-an-end-date-is-set-to-collide-with-a-fixed-date-remembrance-day

Trudeau and his indefinite ‘Half mast” gesture.

What an idiot.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 8:04 pm

Gee,
Maybe someone in the Liberal Party should tell Trudeau about this….. before he shows up at another “apology session”

https://vancouversun.com/news/canada/liberals-appeal-federal-court-ruling-to-compensate-first-nations-children-removed-from-homes

#61 Tomás de Torquemada on 10.29.21 at 8:11 pm

Taxation effect of gifted money within the family.

Capital ‘gains’ that ignore the real inflation. Portfolio ‘growth’ of 10 % with real inflation over that.

‘Gains’ from bonds that pay 1 % with cost of living increase close and maybe over 10 %.

Forced to play the game and start investing early in pursuit of unachievable goals – kids, education, mortgage, retirement, no matter what you do. Goals that were easily achievable 1-2 generations ago.

Aren’t we masking the total destruction of standard of living with the increased complexity of real life?

Overwhelming the sheeple with information and rules while leading it to the slaughterhouse?

Thinking about it: Houses that require 25-30 times average family yearly net income, 40-45 times average individual net income. And that is considered ‘G7 high standard of living?

The incentivized insane competition for basic life needs like housing is simply crazy.

What a messed up place.

#62 willworkforpickles on 10.29.21 at 8:17 pm

#53 DON
The US will always fight for Canada to the bitter end.

#63 canuck on 10.29.21 at 8:40 pm

Garth… oh Garth, we have a 150,000 challenge here we’re unsure how to deal with. We’re maxed out on tax avoidance instruments and for the life of us, can’t figure out how to deal with this extra 150k we have no idea what to do with!!!

Thank God there is a place for 1%’ers to come for advice on their first world problems.

Maybe you should just get better in-laws. – Garth

#64 Wrk.dover on 10.29.21 at 8:42 pm

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 7:48 pm
Trudeau. What an idiot.
_______________________________

Seems likely.

#65 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 8:45 pm

#40 Joseph R. on 10.29.21 at 5:55 pm

Not sure I agree with all of that but my point was more along the line that Alberta will be just fine long term because the world, not just Canada, needs the energy in the interim while we figure out how to deal with either climate change or resource scarcity, whichever scares you the most. We aren’t transitioning to all pinwheels by 2030.

Once we do transition to alternative energy sources, which will involve wind and solar but in my opinion much more nuclear than currently being discussed (but opinions vary so maybe let’s not get all hung up on it other than to agree we are switching whether we want to or not), oil and gas will still be extracted in quantity. It is an important feedstock for just about everything. No oil, no tires. No tires, no Teslas. We just won’t be burning it anymore except in specific applications.

#66 NoName on 10.29.21 at 8:46 pm

#26 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 4:45 pm
I have a question for blog dogs, from my immigrant community I’ve learned that ~130 families have returned to old country in last few months, and more are planning to do. This is driven by ever increasing cost of living, our response to pandemic, and generally concerned about prospects in Canada for them and their kids.

Any other immigrants here hearing similar stories in their communities? just curious if this is an isolated case, or it is wide spread trend?

That kids prospariti part makes no sense, going back where youth unemployment is well above 30%, it was 60% few yrs back. How is that big decline possible? Maybe they left for good or aged-out…

#67 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 8:52 pm

#38 Faron on 10.29.21 at 5:52 pm

Uh oh looks like someone forgot to take their meds again.

I don’t get it. When covering the weather you seem fine. On any other subject all you can type is insults.

Special hint for you in case you ever find yourself in a social environment: Dummies are not often persuaded of anything by pointing out that they are dummies. Especially if that’s all you’ve got.

#68 Goldy Weinstein on 10.29.21 at 9:02 pm

Garth, you complained bitterly when radical idiots stole your flag. But, here Trudeau has stolen our flag and nothing is said? Let’s stand up for Canada and every Canadian hero against a man and his radical rabble whose hatred of our honor as Canadians is a national and international disgrace.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadas-flag-gesture-without-an-end-date-is-set-to-collide-with-a-fixed-date-remembrance-day

#69 yvr_lurker on 10.29.21 at 9:08 pm

People born on 3rd base. Congratulations and follow Garth’s advice and realize how lucky your are that your kid will be in good shape when they are 18 with whatever $$$ are needed.

#70 Joseph R. on 10.29.21 at 9:14 pm

#40 Joseph R. on 10.29.21 at 5:55 pm

Not sure I agree with all of that but my point was more along the line that Alberta will be just fine long term because the world, not just Canada, needs the energy in the interim while we figure out how to deal with either climate change or resource scarcity, whichever scares you the most. We aren’t transitioning to all pinwheels by 2030.

————————————————————–

I agree with you. There is a future in Albertan oil, especially with the new pipelines coming along.

The childish behaviour I was referring to, in my comment, was the desire to hurt fellow Canadians just to spite the PM.

I can see an issue with Natural Gas (NG) production. NG releases half the CO2, for the same amount of BTUs as coal. Now, is the producer of NG that will be punished for producing NG or the consumer that will get credits for reducing their CO2 emissions by half by going from coal to NG?

#71 Robert Ash on 10.29.21 at 9:28 pm

Big sale on Hair cuts coming soon, if our current trends continue.

#72 Wrk.dover on 10.29.21 at 9:54 pm

#52 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 7:07 pm
Most of the immigrants I deal with in the GTA who are my age have worked all over the world.
__________________________________

While you flogged your Griz around PE County?
Pretty small view plane relative to that isn’t it.

But you did mention being to the Maritimes and Rochester too.

No offence intended, just an eye opening comparison to the vast worldliness of the immigrants and especially their children.

As with ‘no replacement for displacement’, so too with family travel. You will learn/witness how green the very grass you knock is, even with Trudeau’s debt poisoning it.

Just the bus ride to a Jamaican liquor resort will spin your head in a whole new direction of thought about the benefit of big per capita national debt.

I like bourbon.

#73 Felix on 10.29.21 at 10:00 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats are not ugly.

Nuff said.

#74 Dr V on 10.29.21 at 10:05 pm

20 faron

The name should be changed from Effingham to eff-ing-wet.

Thats a lot of precip

#75 mike from mtl on 10.29.21 at 10:24 pm

#65 Nonplused on 10.29.21 at 8:45 pm

Not sure I agree with all of that but my point was more along the line that Alberta will be just fine long term because the world, not just Canada, needs the energy in the interim while we figure out how to deal with either climate change or resource scarcity, whichever scares you the most. We aren’t transitioning to all pinwheels by 2030.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Agreed hydrocarbons are not going anywhere except up, but the butthurt of Albertans is silly. AB is selling raw product to the Americans that are so revered, at fire sale prices for a century nobody seems to question?

Meanwhile the country at large imports foreign distilled fuels at full market price and to further charge onerous taxes.

Not too dissimilar to BC shipping raw logging to China, only to be sold back to us finished via Ikea China at 1000x markup. Who’s the idiot now?

#76 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 10:26 pm

#66 NoName on 10.29.21 at 8:46 pm

That kids prospariti part makes no sense, going back where youth unemployment is well above 30%, it was 60% few yrs back. How is that big decline possible? Maybe they left for good or aged-out…
—-

That part puzzles me and unusual that’s why I asked what other people are seeing. The ones I know have school and university aged kids. It could be situational so not drawing any conclusions. But it is happening more than what I’m used to seeing in the past.

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.29.21 at 10:51 pm

5 Sail Away on 10.29.21 at 3:29 pm
#11 Quintilian on 10.29.21 at 2:47 pm

Nora, Please, Please and Please.
Keep the child away from the curmudgeons, especial the anti-intellectual ones. ( crowdedelevatorfartz types)

Make sure the child gets a liberal arts education, but with an extended minor in Chemistry or Economics.

———

Oh sure, Q: give advice. Do you have demonstrated and verifiable successes in your life that lead you believe your advice is any good?

I don’t know your financial situation or stability, but I’d guess it’s lower on both counts than Crowdie’s, who you feel comfortable slagging.
——————-
Quinty gets my full and complete approval.
Time to get rid of boring engineers and plummers.

#78 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.29.21 at 11:03 pm

#63 canuck on 10.29.21 at 8:40 pm

… Thank God there is a place for 1%’ers to come for advice on their first world problems.

—-

Good Lord… Who would want anything greater than first world problems?

#79 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 11:15 pm

#72 Wrk.dover on 10.29.21 at 9:54 pm
#52 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 7:07 pm
Most of the immigrants I deal with in the GTA who are my age have worked all over the world.
__________________________________

While you flogged your Griz around PE County?
Pretty small view plane relative to that isn’t it.

But you did mention being to the Maritimes and Rochester too.

No offence intended, just an eye opening comparison to the vast worldliness of the immigrants and especially their children.

As with ‘no replacement for displacement’, so too with family travel. You will learn/witness how green the very grass you knock is, even with Trudeau’s debt poisoning it.

Just the bus ride to a Jamaican liquor resort will spin your head in a whole new direction of thought about the benefit of big per capita national debt.

I like bourbon
—- —

I never got into the burb, but rum will do! It sounds like you are an hour ahead of me in more than just time :)

The immigrants I reference are from the GTA, I deal with them at work. Since part my job is outside sales, I get to do some chit-chat non work related via lunches and Christmas time visits. So I do get to know them a little bit.

Good folks, I’m failing huge trying to give them a little Christmas cheer every year (LCBO gift cards) – they won’t take ‘em and it’s not because of company policy! No burb or rum for them.

Quite the switch from our backwaters.

#80 Barb on 10.29.21 at 11:25 pm

Godfather Garth! That’ll get the child onto the right track for life.

Congrats Nora…on having your priorities correct.

#81 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 11:33 pm

#76 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 10:26 pm
#66 NoName on 10.29.21 at 8:46 pm

That kids prospariti part makes no sense, going back where youth unemployment is well above 30%, it was 60% few yrs back. How is that big decline possible? Maybe they left for good or aged-out…
—-

That part puzzles me and unusual that’s why I asked what other people are seeing. The ones I know have school and university aged kids. It could be situational so not drawing any conclusions. But it is happening more than what I’m used to seeing in the past.

—- ———

Looks like COVID is causing a lot of folks to bail:

https://www.cp24.com/news/covid-19-prompted-thousands-of-new-migrants-to-canada-to-return-home-1.5337132

#82 truefacts on 10.29.21 at 11:58 pm

@51 Sailaway…

Thx for the reply – obviously it’s all guesswork, but valuations concern me right now. I went back and looked at the last sustained period of inflation (1970s) and found this…

“The DJIA, which was just above 800 at the start of the 1970s, had only advanced to about 839 by the end of the decade, an overall gain of 5% over this 10-year period.”

Does history repeat or not – that’s the question for me…I guess we’ll all know in 10 years…

#83 Jackpot! on 10.30.21 at 12:45 am

Jackpot! Jackpot! Jackpot!

$450,000 USD for you, and you, and you, and you. Welcome to the USA.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8334560/us-family-seapration-border-payments/amp/

#84 LH on 10.30.21 at 2:45 am

It’s not too late to have kids

#85 Longterm on 10.30.21 at 2:46 am

#26 Comrade on 10.29.21 at 4:45 pm
I have a question for blog dogs, from my immigrant community I’ve learned that ~130 families have returned to old country in last few months, and more are planning to do. This is driven by ever increasing cost of living, our response to pandemic, and generally concerned about prospects in Canada for them and their kids.

Any other immigrants here hearing similar stories in their communities? just curious if this is an isolated case, or it is wide spread trend?

********

As someone who lived abroad and became a citizen of another country (UK) and has friends from a half dozen countries who did the same, it’s not uncommon to return ‘home’ temporarily of permanently. I lived in the UK for ten years, became a citizen, my daughter was born in London, and then I moved back to Canada because of aging parents. Some friends did the same, some moved to other countries [Poland, Hong Kong, Singapore, Spain, Indonesia], some stayed in the UK. There are a multitude of reasons why people who are lucky enough to be able to back and forth do so, and money, house prices, and politics aren’t necessarily at the top of the list. Once my daughter is 18 I might move back to the UK for a few year, or not, or perhaps to NZ for a while or to pursue some business interests in Laos of all possible places where I have a friend.

If you are looking for people to chime in with reasons that confirm your preferred narrative that immigrants are bailing out of Canada for X reason then you will find that, but that’s not even remotely the full breadth of the narratives out there.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.30.21 at 7:39 am

@#77 Ponzies Party Poppers

“Time to get rid of boring engineers and plummers.”

++++

Yes .
We need more accountants, to liven up the party……

#87 Phylis on 10.30.21 at 8:47 am

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.29.21 at 7:48 pm
Uh oh.
A trickle of Flag raising has started……. 1st PEI….now this.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadas-flag-gesture-without-an-end-date-is-set-to-collide-with-a-fixed-date-remembrance-day

Trudeau and his indefinite ‘Half mast” gesture.

What an idiot.
Xxxxxxxxxxxx
Well, his dad was known for his gesturing too.

#88 Do we have all the facts on 10.30.21 at 9:05 am

There are over 3,600 hedge funds available to well heeled investors in North America. A number of these hedge funds have adopted aggressive strategies that have consistently generated rates of return substantially higher than the S&P 500.

I was wondering whether information filed with the SEC by hedge funds would provide investors with a sense of how a portfolio might be balanced to maintain a reasonable rate of return as interest rates begin to increase.

Do financial managers review the strategies being employed by successful hedge funds to get some sense of how the portfolios of various types of investors might be balanced?

If successful hedge funds can rake 20% off the top of net gains and still provide investors with returns that exceed returns generated by the S&P 500 the strategies being employed must have some value to less sophisticated investors.

I guess I am asking what indicators I might find, or might look for, if I spent time researching SEC filings or other information related to hedge funds.

I see volatility ahead and hedge funds seem to thrive on increased levels of volatility.

#89 Dharma Bum on 10.30.21 at 10:50 am

Congratulations to the new mom (and dad)!

They are a lucky couple on a number of fronts.

Having a child is an exciting time, but also hectic, scary, and exhausting. Don’t worry, though, human adaptation will kick in quickly and before you know it, everything will be under control. Hunky dory.

It is nice to see that family harmony exists and is expressed in the financial generosity by the grandparents.
This is how well-to-do families behave, and why there is intergenerational success when finances are managed correctly.

It is a brilliant move to gift the funds to the next generation on behalf of the subsequent generation. Most wait until it is too late – hanging on to the dough throughout their adult children’s lives as they struggle with the inordinate expenses of child rearing.

Some gift money for a house, which definitely helps, but the day to day benefits of that gift are never really felt, as the money is immediately sucked into a down payment upon which a disproportionately massive pile of debt is heaped.

So, good on the grandparents for assisting with junior’s future financial burden early in the game.

This is how the rich stay rich and get richer.

Keeping it in the family.

Nice to see.

Smart.

#90 dosouth on 10.30.21 at 11:38 am

I certainly am in line with pre-planning and saving. My biggest concern is that with growing greed, continued laziness to actually get out and become a force to be reckoned inflation will be the norm until the free money taps are turned off.

Most people exist day to day and come from a background from around the world of the same. We have to stop apologizing for things we have/had no control over in the past and mover forward.

#91 Philco on 10.30.21 at 6:05 pm

#17 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 3:43 pm
#167 Philco on 10.29.21 at 12:17 pm
#149 IHCTD9 on 10.29.21 at 8:54 am
#73 Quintilian on 10.28.21 at 5:23 pm

Enjoy the tax increase.
I don’t mind them; I look at the bigger picture.
______
Ha your a brave man tackling that IHTCD9!
Im swammped today so I just say this.
Its NEVER enough. As my parter says.
” They could get a 100% and they still couldn’t balance the budget”
——- —

Your partner is bang on the money regarding these Libs. Thanks why I keep my financial support to a minimum, it all goes to waste, so why feed them?

These next 4 years will be a popcorn gulping good time.

I eagerly await Trudeau’s response as to how we are going to lower the flag to half mast for Remembrance Day, when it’s already been sitting there for 5 months.
———————
Were going drop’er to the bottom of the flag pole then invert it…all good. Thats how these idiots run this country. Budgets dont matter. Debt dont matter.
Sure as hell do in my world.
Politics is just one big gong show now.

And for pro tax guy…..not a chance hes sees the bigger picture….lucky if he can see out his window.
Still laughing at that…

#92 Philco on 10.30.21 at 7:35 pm

The government is out to control absolutely EVERYHTHING.
I got a letter in the mail telling me I need to now register and report my deep well on my property.
It was used to start a camp fire.
Now they are making us report our properties into a new system “LOTA” and why? To ensure I’m not a money launder. Oh and you need to pay your lawyer to do it. WTF!? I’ve got 14 titles and that’s $4000+. Bet they turn this into a annual thing.
Every time they pull this shit they increase the cost of doing business.
So in the end you pay for it because my tenants get the bill. They just pass it off to the peeps.
It never ends with these idiots. We need to end them.
The cost of life here in Kanada is on a sharp trajectory upward.

Oh and pro tax guys ok with increasing taxes lol……still funny to me….