The first shoe

If you hold preferred shares in your portfolio (as a certain pathetic blog told you to, ages ago), it’s all good. You’re up 20% this year. Plus you’re collecting a healthy little 4% income stream, paid in cash every 90 days. And come April you’ll be claiming the dividend tax credit.

Sweet. This is the good side of inflation, post-virus financial euphoria and rising rates. The other side involves painful gas prices, rising mortgage costs and a busted supply chain. Investors with a traditional 60/40 (growth/fixed income) portfolio have seen a bigger return this year than homeowners anywhere. And no realtors, property taxes, condo fees, insurance or squirrels chewing through the garage insulation.

So what’s next?

On Wednesday the Bank of Canada will drop a statement and monetary report, then offer up boss Tiff Macklem for a presser in Ottawa. It will be the first live CB event since the BeforeTimes, and that’s significant. The bank will not raise its key rate this week, but will continue to turn off the stimulus tap and reduce bond-buying yet again. It’s a prelude to what the bond market is already telling us. Up she goes.

“That rate hikes are coming,” says a report from Scotiabank, “seems inevitable.” In fact the market is pricing up a whole host of increases, starting in about five months.

   Why is this happening? How can authorities permit the cost of money to rise just after everyone pickled themselves in debt? How high will they go? And, are we doomed?

Given official inflation at 4.4%, far above the CB’s target rate for six months now, along with $85 oil and runaway corporate earnings, it’s a slamdunk emergency Covid-induced, crazy-low rates will end. The longer money stays cheap the more that debt-loving beavers will feast on it, the more inflated asset values (especially houses) will become and the larger the risk this poses when everything reverts to the mean. Also the main tool central banks have to combat downturns is the ability to quickly cut rates and stimulate spending. So it’s simply impossible to leave the benchmark at a quarter of one per cent, leaving no room for cuts in, say, 2025 when the SHTF next.

In short, this is why mortgage rates will double:

  • We’ve recovered all the jobs vaporized by the pandemic.
  • There’s still a huge shortage of workers, thus wages will pop.
  • Canada has one of the best vax rates in the world…
  •  …and we haven’t even started on the kids yet.
  • Corporations, and our banks, are rolling in profitability.
  • GDP is expanding. By the end of 2021, the virus impact will be a memory.
  • T2, newly re-elected, is about to spend even more. Fiscal stimulus to the moon.
  • Lockdowns are out. Vaxports are in. Society can reopen.
  • Commodity prices are nuts. Canada is rich in them.
  • The TSX is in the longest rally ever. Stocks have added $200 billion. Look at your RRSP.
  • Christmas will be a retail orgy.

So the rate increases may begin in March (as the market is forecasting) or in July (as most economists believe). Current thinking is there will be at least 8, adding 2% or more to the bank rate. That will increase the chartered bank prime to almost 4.5%, double five-year mortgages and make people with VRMs and LOCs unhappy. We showed you last week, in stark dollar terms, what this means for the amount of interest paid on home loans.

“Like potato chips, one or two rate hikes would leave any inflation-targeting central bank’s hunger unsatiated,” adds Scotia. “To be meaningful, the first stage of the hike cycle is likely to involve a rapid move off the lower bound through a meaningful number of initial hikes.”

So, doomed?

Nah, only if you borrowed your brains out, grabbed an inflated house with 20x leverage, believed WFH would let you live in Bunnypatch forever and grow equity, bought a Ram 1500 TRX (12 mpg) or put everything into a ‘safe’ government bond fund, like [email protected] suggested.

?      ?      ?

So this is a good segue into Andrew’s contribution to the Investment Question of the Day.

You’re a stout believer in a B&D 60/40 portfolio, and the main argument for such seems to be because when equities fall, bonds rise and provide some stability in turbulent times. This reduces the shock to investors and thus reduces the likelihood they panic and jump ship at the worst possible time. I’m curious, if you took human emotion out of it, would you stick with this strategy? The S&P500 has returned around a 10% average in its lifetime, which is quite a lot better than a B&D portfolio. Assuming the investor is not going to panic during a downturn, nor do they ever need to fully liquidate their portfolio at once, would you not suggest going 100% stocks, or something more aggressive than 60/40? It just seems the B&D portfolio is essentially costing an investor potential returns, with the only reason really being to control their emotions. That’s arguably an unnecessary cost if the investor is steadfast in the event of a market collapse.

First, the long-term average for a balanced portfolio is just north of 7% while, yes, the US equity market has delivered over 10%. A major difference is that swings in an all-stock portfolio are far more extreme. By missing a few good days, performance can be shattered, whereas a B&D approach is more forgiving.

So, if you were emotionless, never worried about market gyrations nor required income or lump sums from your portfolio for a number of decades, then an all-S&P-all-the-time portfolio would work well. Sadly I’ve never met a person who fit that bill. Maybe it’s Andrew!

Moreover, putting all your eggs in one asset class means an extra level of risk. For example, rising rates might whack the tech stocks, but they feed preferreds (see above). Also being in US$ exclusively adds currency risk. Just wait until Mr. Trump returns…

About the picture: “I have been a reader of your blog for ages  – (and my Dad, bless him, was a huge fan as well.  He read all of your earlier books.) Anyway – some great advice given over the years and in these days of information overload, the blog is well worth the read,” writes Viola. “I am sending a photo of our much loved, now gone, Kelsey. He loved to pose for the camera! Hated being groomed (which was a regular thing) but endured it because we told him over and over how Handsome he was! He then pranced about, strutting his stuff! This is him at the beach on a winter day. One of these days, we will get another dog – put it off for a variety of reasons – not wanting to have my heart broken again being one of them.”

159 comments ↓

#1 SW on 10.26.21 at 1:42 pm

“Just wait until Mr. Trump returns…”

I sincerely hope that’s just your little Halloween joke! (It scares me…)

#2 Divot Lace on 10.26.21 at 1:47 pm

“We’ve recovered all the jobs vaporized by the pandemic.”

We have?

“Christmas will be a retail orgy.”

It will be? This Christmas? We have the inventory for an “orgy”?

#3 Santa Clause on 10.26.21 at 1:54 pm

FYI – I didn’t want to chance it. I already did nearly all my Christmas shopping. Just need a shaver for some winter manscaping and I’m all done.

I already told Mrs. Clause that this Christmas she’s getting some Santa Loving as her gift. It’s the environmentally friendly gift that’s carbon natural too and leaves no turtle killing plastics behind.

#4 Jake on 10.26.21 at 1:55 pm

The squirrel on my lot chewed through my window sills. Apparently they do this to sharpen their teeth. Now, I’m looking at 10k to replace everything he sawed through. But, first I need to catch him! The joys of home ownership.

#5 Barry on 10.26.21 at 1:59 pm

Well Garth meet one who has an all dividend growth portfolio and I’m nearly 69. No bonds, no gold, no Bitcoin, no resource stocks, no ETFs or Mutual Funds. Just Utilities, Pipelines, US health Care, our Banks, CN Rail, an insurer and a grocer. When I started this gig in 2006 I was told how crazy I was to go against the stream and remain “safe” But I stopped working with an after tax income of $40,000 which is now approx. $90,000, $17,000 of which comes from my TFSA (which gets reinvested since I don’t need it). I’m collecting my OAS next year at a 36% premium (with some clawed back) because I’m patient. So patient that I usually have around 20% in cash to take advantage of the next major crash … and I love crashes! I find the latest surge in stock prices rather boring.

#6 Faron on 10.26.21 at 2:01 pm

#44 Sail Away on 10.25.21 at 3:31 pm

Wow. I know you are bored and trolling is how you get your jollies… And I know you are desperately trying to get people to notice you because you have the behavioural development of a four year old. But, wow. The only thing stopping your head from being further up your arse is your shoulders. You say some ignorant crap, but this may just take the cake.

…I’ve sailed offshore in worse weather than this many times:…

1) No, you haven’t. This thing was Beaufort 12 near it’s centre with gusts over 70kt. 60 kt recorded on Solander Island. Seas were 8.4 meters at a 10 s period at the center. Nearer shore, waves were 10.9 meters at 13 s. That’s 35 ft. Those are significant wave height meaning larger waves were present and in those winds they would be breaking seas.

You have a marine engineering background, you should know what that means to any craft. No, your boat wouldn’t bob like a cork surviveably in such seas. It would be knocked down and dismasted you would be lucky to survive without injury. If you were still afloat and if you had any spar and if you weren’t a broken mess lying in the bilge you and your craft would be limping home under jury rig. AIS showed that even the largest cargo vessels were diverting around this thing.

…The sky is just fine doesn’t….

2) All of the good forecasters, including Environment Canada’s (not to mention my own looks at the model output) were saying this was a historic low offshore and that it would fill as it came onshore. The forecasting was incredibly good with the storm predicted within a few mb when the atmosphere was showing just a glimmer of a vorticity max and a water vapour plume.

What an ignorant fool you are.

#7 Philco on 10.26.21 at 2:11 pm

Hey IHCTD9
Thanks for the replies! Got a good chuckle. Got busy on the run. Cheers

#8 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 2:18 pm

In all likelihood the BOC will remain under the clutches of the politicians rather than do the right thing.

So, they will taper and taper, in minuscule increments, while the economy burns.

But no increases.

Inflation will be understated until it can’t be anymore, as we will find ourselves in not Hyperinflation, but roaring inflation.

Then someone will have to step in with drastic measures.

If mon and dad helped you get that million dollar mortgage, you will hate them.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

Of course rates will rise. Hyperinflation is not a possibility, nor do you know what it is. – Garth

#9 Graeme on 10.26.21 at 2:20 pm

I think you missed a big reason rates will rise–because we do not have the ability to keep them low like the US does (and will do) via a global USD market which soaks up a large amount of their inflation.

#10 Vocal Edit on 10.26.21 at 2:24 pm

#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 11:00 am
#4 Vocal Edit on 10.25.21 at 1:02 pm
Dolce Vita, do you know what the Green Pass is called in Greece?

Freedom Pass!
—————————
You know what French Fries are called in “Deep in the heart of Texas”?
Freedom Fries!
—————————
Well, that’s two examples of items named Freedom that have nothing to do with it. Any others?

#11 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 2:26 pm

“Of course rates will rise. Hyperinflation is not a possibility, nor do you know what it is. – Garth”

I wrote:

“not Hyperinflation, but roaring inflation.”

#12 BlogDog123 on 10.26.21 at 2:26 pm

Trump won’t return, but he will “campaign” at various rallies saying why the upcoming slate of Republican candidates are RINOs and not as good as him…

Oh, and to say again and again that the 2020 election was the biggest steal in the entire existence of the universe…

Trump loves going to rallies and blathering on with his posse cheering…

#13 SunShowers on 10.26.21 at 2:33 pm

“So, if you were emotionless, never worried about market gyrations nor required income or lump sums from your portfolio for a number of decades, then an all-S&P-all-the-time portfolio would work well. Sadly I’ve never met a person who fit that bill.”

The 100% equity strategy has worked well for me.
I’m a socialist with a heart of steel and cojones to match.

#14 Faron on 10.26.21 at 2:36 pm

#7 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 2:18 pm

Of course rates will rise. Hyperinflation is not a possibility, nor do you know what it is. – Garth

But Garth, it’s fun to say “hyperinflation” and it makes Quintilian sound important.

#15 TurnerNation on 10.26.21 at 2:40 pm

— Watch your food supply/Supply chain. The take-down continues. Is there anything CV cannot do?

https://www.transportroutier.ca/nouvelles/vaccination-obligatoire-jusqua-38-000-camionneurs-pourraient-abandonner-le-transport-transfrontalier/
“The Canadian Trucking Alliance (CCA) believes that one in five Canadian cross-border truck drivers will leave this segment when the U.S. requires proof of vaccination starting in January.
The estimate is based on current vaccination rates in Canada.”

— What’s really going on in Kanada? NO Talking or Smiles allowed Comrade stand 6-6-6 feet apart – what’s going on in the background?
Bankers gone wild. A reminder the provinces have no ‘re-opening’ date , this will be dragged on for years. #reset. All those small business closed, on to CEBA debt and CERB – for our Health, Comrades. BBB?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com › business › article-b…
1 day ago — BDC head wants to help companies build back better … Christinne Muschi/The Globe and Mail. Share.


— Isn’t it strange. The more we are told this is for ‘health’ the sicker people become.

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1046432435/ers-are-now-swamped-with-seriously-ill-patients-but-most-dont-even-have-covid
ERs are now swamped with seriously ill patients — but most don’t even have COVID
“Even in parts of the country where COVID isn’t overwhelming the health system, patients are showing up to the ER sicker than they were before the pandemic, their diseases more advanced and in need of more complicated care.
Months of treatment delays have exacerbated chronic conditions and worsened symptoms. Doctors and nurses say the severity of illness ranges widely and includes abdominal pain, respiratory problems, blood clots, heart conditions, and suicide attempts, among others.”

#16 In Dog We Trust on 10.26.21 at 2:41 pm

$85 oil because demand dried up for a good part of early COVID where Sawdi Barberia & Vlad eventually turned down the taps such that now there is not enough flow for the post COVID… The Western world needs to apply some muscle upon these oil barons…

Inflation,,, wasn’t it the scariest thing where globally being so stuck in deflation that 2 to 3 years of 4 to 5% inflation is the correct assurance that deflation is finally killed off… yup & yup…

#17 My way ... or the highway on 10.26.21 at 2:41 pm

#4 Barry on 10.26.21 at 1:59 pm

Well Garth meet one who has an all dividend growth portfolio and I’m nearly 69. No bonds, no gold, no Bitcoin, no resource stocks, no ETFs or Mutual Funds. Just Utilities, Pipelines, US health Care, our Banks, CN Rail, an insurer and a grocer. When I started this gig in 2006 I was told how crazy I was to go against the stream and remain “safe” But I stopped working with an after tax income of $40,000 which is now approx. $90,000, $17,000 of which comes from my TFSA (which gets reinvested since I don’t need it). I’m collecting my OAS next year at a 36% premium (with some clawed back) because I’m patient. So patient that I usually have around 20% in cash to take advantage of the next major crash … and I love crashes! I find the latest surge in stock prices rather boring.
_________________________________________

Mr. Barry … you are forever banned from this site! No ETFs!? No prefs!??

I suppose you are also an anti-vaxer, anti-masker Trump-lover. Off with ye …

On the Internet, everybody is Chuck Norris. – Garth

#18 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 2:49 pm

#160 IHCTD9 on 10.26.21 at 11:58 am
#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 8:16 am

Add in company liability insurance, WCB, truck lease, etc etc etc. and hiring a van to arrive at your house to fix your toilet and sink…..aint so cheap.
OR you can do it yourself because….they’re busy and the phone is ringing off the hook.
Dont blame the trades for charging big bucks
____

That’s the thing folks forget about. the cost of doing business. Government keeps driving it up. Just take auto insurance and fuel prices in BC and compare them to Ontario. It’s a clear demonstration of how bad government drives up costs for everyone. There is no actual reason BC’ers need to pay so much more, it’s 100% government inflicted and has provided zero benefit to anyone (except government, of course).
—————————
All businesses have overhead.
What makes Plummers special?

#19 TurnerNation on 10.26.21 at 2:53 pm

– USA it’s happening fast. The engineered take-down.

.Business groups ask White House to delay Biden Covid vaccine mandate until after the holidays (cnbc.com)

.Emergency workers come out in force in mass protest against New York vaccine mandate (newsweek.com)


–Control over Travel/Movement. Yep this is set to run until 2025.

.’The pandemic isn’t over’: CDC extends Conditional Sailing Order for cruises into January amid COVID-19 (usatoday.com)


— Good Lord. This not a joke site – it is the Globalists’. Ok the Dog costume is cool.
(hint: “equity” means we all will become poor with their goals)

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/11-halloween-costumes-to-express-your-inner-global/
DEMAND EQUITY
11 Halloween costumes to express your inner global citizen
Plus pet costumes!”



Bonus:

There’s no replacement for displacement. A stock 20-year old Dodge Viper (V10) trounces it all. Not even close!
2011 Audi S4, 2007 Ford Mustang GT, and a 2021 Dodge Challenger Scat Pack Widebody (SRT 392).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXACzoNvTKo

#20 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 3:00 pm

Faron, try finding any post on this blog where I suggested Hyperinflation- you won’t.

I don’t think Hyperinflation is a remote possibility in Canada, or most of the western developed economies.

I do think that inflation has been understated for a long time, and I do think the BOC will let inflation get out of hand before they act.

I disagree with Garth who believes that central bankers are independent.

Central bankers are political slaves, with varying length of chains, depending on their political masters.

Wrong again. – Garth

#21 RMTL on 10.26.21 at 3:02 pm

Hi Garth,
Thanks for the great article.
You just mentioned “currency risk”:
With the ongoing inflation (good for loonie) / rate increases / ect… and the perspective of a better CAD against USD (National Bank still thinks it should be 10 cents higher), wouldn’t it be the best time to ditch all the currency hedged ETFs for unhedged ones in our portfolios (which contains as per your recommendation more USD then CAD ) ?

#22 Flop… on 10.26.21 at 3:13 pm

#9 Vocal Edit on 10.26.21 at 2:24 pm
#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 11:00 am
#4 Vocal Edit on 10.25.21 at 1:02 pm
Dolce Vita, do you know what the Green Pass is called in Greece?

Freedom Pass!
—————————
You know what French Fries are called in “Deep in the heart of Texas”?
Freedom Fries!
—————————
Well, that’s two examples of items named Freedom that have nothing to do with it. Any others?

/////////////////////

When I get home from work I take off my pants and yell “Freedom”…

M47BC

#23 FriedEggs on 10.26.21 at 3:18 pm

People are getting ‘buyers remorse.’

In more ways than one.

#24 RG on 10.26.21 at 3:31 pm

Where can I buy SHTF? What’s the MER?

#25 Billy Buoy on 10.26.21 at 3:34 pm

A great article based on reality:

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/10/18/spike-in-energy-prices-suggests-that-sharp-changes-are-ahead/

Would love to read any arguments stating otherwise.

#26 Clintonski on 10.26.21 at 3:40 pm

“Just wait until Mr. Trump returns…”

This is not a joke. He’ll be back.

Did you hear that Democrats had to make up lies about Russia that are now coming to light as lies? Yeah – that whole Russia-Trump-email server things was a lie made up by…

#27 Millennial 1%er on 10.26.21 at 3:42 pm

>So, if you were emotionless, never worried about market gyrations nor required income or lump sums from your portfolio for a number of decades, then an all-S&P-all-the-time portfolio would work well.

Seems like I do fit the bill. I could “lose” 50% of my portfolio & I won’t bat an eye. This is because I genuinely do not need it.

You know what helps with taming the emotions of losing a bunch of “money” in the market? Making up the loss in a year’s worth of work. I’m ballin

#28 Ballingsford on 10.26.21 at 3:44 pm

We have a new cabinet today. The ship will be righted soon.

#29 Danger Dan on 10.26.21 at 3:50 pm

I had some visibility into the world of subprime lending during the GFC and lenders resorted to special payment arrangements to reel overextended borrowers out of delinquency.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the same tactic were employed again. Speculators “owning” multiple homes might get ruined but it will be meaningless politically because nobody cares about them.

#30 Cap'n Crunch on 10.26.21 at 3:53 pm

#27 Ballingsford

We have a new cabinet today. The ship will be righted soon.

—-

How? By using pallets of cash for ballast?

#31 jess on 10.26.21 at 3:59 pm

i say baloney . Meanwhile by next September , he will send in more inspectors into private nursing homes (20m)why taxpayers paying for private company

Ontario’s education minister says 50,000 people could lose their jobs if the province mandated COVID-19 vaccines for education workers

https://www.cp24.com/news/no-decision-on-vaccine-mandate-for-health-care-workers-coming-this-week-as-liberals-accuse-ford-government-of-dithering-1.5637428
=========
Thousands of N.Y. Health Care Workers Get Vaccinated Ahead of Deadline.
staffing shortages seem less likely.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/nyregion/vaccine-health-care-workers-mandate.html

…”the vaccine mandate violates the religious freedom of two Long Island nurses and a health care worker in Syracuse.”

Those plaintiffs, like others around the state, say they do not want to get a coronavirus vaccine because cell lines derived from fetuses aborted decades ago were used in the development or production or testing of the vaccines.

Jim Banks? wants less science at the national institute of health?
https://lozierinstitute.org/seeking-pro-life-leadership-at-the-national-institutes-of-health/

Cheney calls out Banks for falsely signing letter as ranking committee member
Rep. Jim Banks lamented on the House floor that House Speaker Pelosi prevented him from serving on the House committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, and yet Banks sent a letter to at least one government agency falsely claiming that he is ranking member of the committee in his signature. Fellow Republican Liz Cheney called Banks out for his actions as the House began debate on the criminal contempt referral of Steve Bannon for evading a subpoena.

=======
But other conservative leaders have sanctioned use of the cells, noting that they were developed decades ago, long before concerns about their fetal origins became a political issue.
In a letter sent to Mr. Trump in June, more than 100 members of Congress praised the president for his “efforts to protect the sanctity of all human life” but described 293T and Per.C6 as a “few old cell lines.”
The House Committee on Oversight and Reform found last month that the Trump administration’s ban on the use of federal funds for fetal tissue research was “based in ideological objections, not evaluation of the scientific merit of such projects.”

https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/2020-09-14.Pallone%20CBM%20Murray%20to%20HHS%20re%20Fetal%20Tissue%20Research.pdf
=======================
According to the Officer Down Memorial Page, 240 law enforcement officers died of COVID this year, more than four times the number of deaths from gunfire.
In 2020, 245 officers died of the coronavirus, said the organization, which tracks on-duty police deaths.

=============================
What is the value?
The tests might indicate the presence or even the level of coronavirus-fighting antibodies in the bloodstream, but scientists don’t yet know what number of antibodies provide protection from covid-19.

#32 jess on 10.26.21 at 4:00 pm

as it should be!
COVID-19 vaccine-myocarditis paper to be permanently removed: Elsevier
https://retractionwatch.com/2021/10/25/covid-19-vaccine-myocarditis-paper-to-be-permanently-removed-elsevier/

#33 willworkforpickles on 10.26.21 at 4:13 pm

“The bank will not raise its key rate this week, but will continue to turn off the stimulus tap”
“T2, newly re-elected, is about to spend even more. Fiscal stimulus to the moon.”

Taper-speak.

Perhaps you should learn the difference between monetary and fiscal policy. – Garth

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 4:15 pm

#9 Vocal Edit on 10.26.21 at 2:24 pm
#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 11:00 am
#4 Vocal Edit on 10.25.21 at 1:02 pm
Dolce Vita, do you know what the Green Pass is called in Greece?

Freedom Pass!
—————————
You know what French Fries are called in “Deep in the heart of Texas”?
Freedom Fries!
—————————
Well, that’s two examples of items named Freedom that have nothing to do with it. Any others?
————-
Freedom Toast.

Freedom Fries and Freedom Toast.
That what the clever Burgers in the American South were proposing to rename two French culinary classics
In response to the “Gaul” that the French had not to join the “coalition of willing” led by the Americans to invade Iraq.

#35 IHCTD9 on 10.26.21 at 4:24 pm

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 2:49 pm

—————————
All businesses have overhead.
What makes Plummers special?
___

I think it pretty much boils down to them doing a job that not many aspire to do. If you exhaust your local options for plumbers in 3 phone calls, you know it ain’t gonna be quick, easy, or cheap!

They can charge more, and will charge more; until you learn how to do plumbing yourself, or decide you no longer want to pay the cost associated with owning a plumbing system. I’m thinking the price can go up a lot before you decide these things.

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 4:25 pm

#27 Ballingsford on 10.26.21 at 3:44 pm
We have a new cabinet today. The ship will be righted soon.
————–
If Trudeau is smart enough to read the comments here, he’ll add some Cabinet Makers and some overpaid “Plummers” to the Roster.
Lots of plugged toilets on Parliament Hill.

#37 Bezengy on 10.26.21 at 4:25 pm

I’m thinking a twenty five percent drop in housing prices is due right across the country. Along with rising inflation and interest rates (as if this isn’t enough) I think we have some other worries. An aging population of home owners will soon force sales on a massive scale. Inevitable government cutbacks at all levels including layoffs and forced retirement will force more sales. Life events such as divorce and living paycheck to paycheck fatigue causing folks to just give up on the idea of owning a house. And let’s not forget we’re going to build a lot more houses. This whole housing bubble just isn’t sustainable in my opinion, not even close.

#38 Lee on 10.26.21 at 4:26 pm

Big tech seems to be largely immune from rising interest rates. At least the rates we’ve seen in the last ten years. I don’t think rate increases would create too scary a scenario for people heavily in tech.

#39 X on 10.26.21 at 4:28 pm

Would almost prefer a rate increase sooner, and the price of my groceries to stop going up. Every week the prices are changing.

#40 Dolce Vita on 10.26.21 at 4:29 pm

#9 Vocal Edit

Other:

Freedom Day (UK when they got rid of restrictions on Jul. 19).

Well…that worked out well:

[real time app, 4.7M subscribers…was 89K a few days ago]

https://i.imgur.com/peqPpDw.png

“Official” Gov UK count (that takes a month or two to catch up with the actual ZOE numbers):

https://i.imgur.com/SRwGWEC.png

——————–

Moral:

Don’t call it “Freedom” something or other unless you want it to blow up in your face eventually (when it comes to Covid).

When “Freedom” used with hideous, artery clogging, greasy, salt encrusted, dripping in Canola Oil [or Corn, Sunflower, extensive list *] Americani food

…you’re on your own.

* https://i.imgur.com/CIhxjXC.png

[I like it that Google was unequivocal]

#41 Faron on 10.26.21 at 4:30 pm

#19 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 3:00 pm

where I suggested Hyperinflation

Maybe you should publish a guide so we know the difference between hyperinflation and roaring inflation. Or you could write with more clarity.

Regardless. You are re-iterating the take that’s all over the commentating interwebs thus it’s probably wrong. Doesn’t mean prices will come back down (deflation) but disinflation will happen sooner than you think as the sloshing economy slowly settles from its COVID disturbance.

#42 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 4:44 pm

#5 Faron on 10.26.21 at 2:01 pm

What an ignorant fool you are

——-

Careful. Your professionalism is showing.

Hey, did you see TSLA?

#43 dave on 10.26.21 at 4:44 pm

List prices in Vancouver have gone up $200k to $300k

OMG..we are being financially raped and no one is doing anything significant. Longer they wait the more damage is being done

#44 Kilt on 10.26.21 at 4:49 pm

Easy to take emotion out of it.
Only sell on up days, ideally if there are a few in a row and only when re-balancing.
Only buy on down days. But you should never sit for more than a quarter building up cash.
If you invest correctly, you will have a steady stream of dividends that allows you to add to your portfolio.
Never own individual stocks, unless you are happy to lose the entire investment.
And never try to beat the market or an index. If you are balanced, the only time you will beat the market is in a major downturn.

Kilt

#45 AntMan on 10.26.21 at 4:49 pm

#19 Quintilian
Central bankers are political slaves, with varying length of chains, depending on their political masters.

Wrong again. – Garth

So how do you explain: https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/b-2/page-3.html#h-23955 Section 14.2

Minister’s directive

(2) If, notwithstanding the consultations provided for in subsection (1), there should emerge a difference of opinion between the Minister and the Bank concerning the monetary policy to be followed, the Minister may, after consultation with the Governor and with the approval of the Governor in Council, give to the Governor a written directive concerning monetary policy, in specific terms and applicable for a specified period, and the Bank shall comply with that directive.

Looks like a chain to me.

The Canadian government does not dictate monetary policy, whether it has the legislative authority or not. – Garth

#46 Is anybody home? on 10.26.21 at 4:50 pm

Watch what you wish for Canada. First the vax pass and then the rollout of digital currency. Bank of Canada looking for for a Product Architect for CBDC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LAMuhgzXLs

Old news. – Garth

#47 habitt on 10.26.21 at 4:52 pm

Anan to defence, Gibault to enviroment and Sajan, Hajdu, Bennett and others kept on. The pool is very shallow but saying yes Mr prime minister pays dividends. we are in for a lot of pain from this mob. Cant wait for their first budget. Hang onto your wallets lol

#48 willworkforpickles on 10.26.21 at 4:55 pm

“Perhaps you should learn the difference between monetary and fiscal policy. – Garth”

But i do i do like few do.
You misinterpreted my meaning.

#49 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 4:57 pm

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 2:49 pm

All businesses have overhead.
What makes Plummers special?

——-

Well. Christopher Plummer played Captain Von Trapp in the Sound of Music, which I understand was by far the best movie ever to be set in Austria, and he is still universally celebrated throughout Austria.

You should know this.

#50 PaperBoy on 10.26.21 at 5:00 pm

DELETED

#51 That Guy on 10.26.21 at 5:02 pm

“Just wait until Mr. Trump returns…”

Thanks Mr. Turner…sitting here with tears of joy in my eyes at the thought of Trump returning to the White House…beautiful!

#52 cuke and tomato picker on 10.26.21 at 5:04 pm

Eight interest rate increases WOW I was speaking with my financial person yesterday who has read that too many interest rate increases would have a crippling affect on the economy because too many people are in debt and are struggling now and will be going bankrupt. We believe interest rates should increase to bring some people back into the real world. YOU CAN NOT HAVE WHAT YOU CAN NOT PAY FOR.

Tip: get a new advisor. – Garth

#53 Wrk.dover on 10.26.21 at 5:06 pm

#173 Stoph on 10.26.21 at 1:12 pm
#170 Wrk.dover on 10.26.21 at 12:37 pm
From the pharmacy in a revolving rack of DIY books, I bought the Sunset Book of Plumbing.

Then I plumbed my new build. My friend borrowed my book and did his new build too.

It was in 1981. Twenty somethings were different then.

————————————————————–
You mean they used books instead of YouTube for their DIY job?
__________________________

Well Stoph, here’s the thing. The book had a page or two that showed every available configuration of an ABS fitting available. The name, the sizes, and what it is for. Then there was the diagram of the entire drain waste vent system in the dwelling, so it would be clear how that whole thing functions at not much more than a glance. You tube isn’t going to teach the whole topic at a glance. Nor can I. But a reference book? Well yeah, it was equal to an apprenticeship, for new work layout principals.

You tube is going to help with repairs, I will concede.

There should be a pay grade increase for repair plumbers. I repeat from yesterday, new work is Lego. Learnable from a drug store book. Easily aced.

#54 willworkforpickles on 10.26.21 at 5:07 pm

# 32 Garth response…
You must have mistakenly assumed that i thought you contradicted yourself.

“The bank will not raise its key rate this week, but will continue to turn off the stimulus tap”
“T2, newly re-elected, is about to spend even more. Fiscal stimulus to the moon.”

Taper-speak.

Perhaps you should learn the difference between monetary and fiscal policy. – Garth

I wasn’t thinking of it as a contradiction at all.

#55 Vocal Edit on 10.26.21 at 5:09 pm

#39 Dolce Vita

What you’re saying Dolce is, propaganda is alive and well in the west, just our propaganda boys…forgive me…marketing executives…are a bit more slick about it.

But it is one and the same in terms of goals. They just make it seem nice with the naming tricks. North Korea is using mind control propaganda. America wants to capture some of your mind share!

#56 Linda on 10.26.21 at 5:12 pm

The much anticipated Christmas buying orgy may not end up being one due to ongoing supply chain issues. Retailers are more than willing to sell, if they can just get the supplies they need that consumers want. Saw headlines today that high lumber prices are back due to supply chain issues, including getting labor to produce the desired products. And yes, I do expect inflation to continue at higher than desired numbers for a while yet.

#57 Dolce Vita on 10.26.21 at 5:15 pm

“Christmas will be a retail orgy.”

— Garth

I ‘dunno Garth.

————-

StatCan income quintiles* just out:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211026/dq211026a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Prose starts with positive spin and hoping that nobody scrolls down to Charts 4 and 5:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211026/cg-a004-eng.htm
[bottom 40% negative]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211026/cg-a005-eng.htm
[Boomer, Paleos negative, get hosed…what happens when you give all your Assets & go into Debt ’cause of Junior…Junior did well though, imagine that?]

Slice & Dice me not content with the above only and went after the raw data itself and found this ditty:

“Social transfers in kind (STiK)” **

by Quintile, 2nd Qtr 2021…

Lowest Income = $16,731,000,000 !!!
Second = $20,714,000,000
Third =$20,498,000,000
Fourth = $19,496,000,000
Highest Income = $17,739,000,000 !!!

I have to ask WTF is Gov Canada doing giving the Highest 20% income earners in Canada more Social transfers in kind (STiK) cash than the Lowest 20% Income earners [money for Education, Health, Other]?

And the Middle Class makes away like bandits.

LIBERAL.
FORWARD. FOR EVERYONE.

————

* Quintiles divide a range of data into five equal parts, each being 1/5th (20 percent) of the range.

** StiK by Right Fraser Institute
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/stik-is-ottawas-acronym-for-social-transfer-in-kind

#58 Integrated Circuit on 10.26.21 at 5:16 pm

So…

How do you feel lately?

More tracked or less?

More people asking you for your personal information or fewer?

More people asking you to scan something before you are permitted an activity or an action or fewer?

Have you beed issued your own personal QR code identifier, or are you eagerly waiting for one?

More contact tracing to see who you touch, where you’ve been, who you may have talked to, or less?

#59 Shawn Allen on 10.26.21 at 5:16 pm

Markets Dips and Bravery

#26 Millennial 1%er on 10.26.21 at 3:42 pm

You know what helps with taming the emotions of losing a bunch of “money” in the market? Making up the loss in a year’s worth of work. I’m ballin

*********************************
It starts to feel a bit different when you get to the point where a 10% correction amounts to more money than you ever made in a year working.

That’s why 100% equities gets a bit scary eventually. Easy to say a 20% correction is not problem. Percentages are important but at some point so is the quantum of portfolio gyrations (losses) in dollars.

Well, maybe a $200k or $400k loss is not that big a deal – as long as you can keep it secret from the wife.

#60 PaperBoy on 10.26.21 at 5:20 pm

DELETED

#61 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 5:21 pm

#21 Flop… on 10.26.21 at 3:13 pm
#9 Vocal Edit on 10.26.21 at 2:24 pm
#155 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 11:00 am
#4 Vocal Edit on 10.25.21 at 1:02 pm
Dolce Vita, do you know what the Green Pass is called in Greece?

Freedom Pass!
—————————
You know what French Fries are called in “Deep in the heart of Texas”?
Freedom Fries!
—————————
Well, that’s two examples of items named Freedom that have nothing to do with it. Any others?

/////////////////////

When I get home from work I take off my pants and yell “Freedom”…

M47BC
—————–
Haha,
I think most of the workers nowadays feel that way.
Or was it always like that?
In the words of the late John Prine in “Angel from Montgomery”.
“How the hell, can a person
Go to work in the morning.
And come home in the evening.
And have nothing to say”

#62 Aren't we Naughty on 10.26.21 at 5:26 pm

#56 Dolce Vita

“Christmas will be a retail orgy.”

A public service announcement to the readers that a few locations of Aren’t we Naughty had to downsize, relocate or close during the pandemic. Now that things are opening up again, check that your nearest location is still open to ensure you too can partake in the Christmas retail orgy.

For example, the large store at 1100 Queensway location has closed unfortunately.

#63 Dolce Vita on 10.26.21 at 5:30 pm

Forgot the slice & dice link previous Comment.

“Distributions of household economic accounts, income, consumption and saving, by characteristic, quarterly (x 1,000,000)” – 2021-10-26

StiK was found in, default set to Q2 2021:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610066201

——————

Garth, since you are interested in WFH clothing attire & Cdns getting out of their comfy womfy home outfits into something better, by Quintile:

“Clothing and footwear”

Lower Income = $1,246,000,000
Second = $1,312,000,000
Third = $1,500,000,000
Fourth = $1,661,000,000
Highest Income = $2,619,000,000

There you go.

#64 katcristoff on 10.26.21 at 5:41 pm

There will be no Xmas Orgy I’m afraid. Rising rates, falling stocks and housing; people up to their eyeballs with debt and companies like Affirm taking advantage of the poor.. it will not end well.

#65 Andrew on 10.26.21 at 5:43 pm

Andrew here, thanks for the response to my question!

I’d still consider myself somewhat green to investing, though I’ve been investing for around 6 years now. My portfolio is nothing extreme, but it is reaching a healthy amount to the point I’d have thought a significant decline would have tested my mettle. Having gone through the Covid crash with an aggressive portfolio and barely batting an eyelid at the crashes we experienced, I guess I do fall under that “emotionless” category.

If you don’t need the money soon, and you know full well the market will recover, I don’t see what there is to be panicked about. In fact, I doubled down on some particularly battered stocks like energy (XEG) at the bottom of the crash, which has since tripled in value. Crashes seem more of an opportunity than a threat really.

I guess some would consider this “cowboy” behavior, but if you look at how markets react after a crash you’re almost certain to see massive returns in the few years following.

I am not 100% stocks at the moment, more 75/25, but I was 100% for a good while. One thing I did realize during the Covid crash is that if you hold 100% stocks it seriously limits your ability to make market moves. If all of your portfolio has crashed, you have no ability to sell one of your better performing stocks to buy a stock that has crashed, since all of your stocks have crashed. I think I’m going to hold onto some safe stuff simply to give more flexibility to benefit from market crashes.

I have to say I am quite surprised Garth has never met a person who is emotionless (for investing) and has no requirement for income/lump sum payments from their portfolio. If you have no interest in owning property and your salary covers all expenses, what do you need access to investments for? I’ve been putting money away my whole working life without needing to touch it, and I don’t see that ever changing until retirement. I didn’t think I was that rare of a breed!

#66 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 5:43 pm

#42 dave on 10.26.21 at 4:44 pm

List prices in Vancouver have gone up $200k to $300k

OMG..we are being financially raped and no one is doing anything significant. Longer they wait the more damage is being done

——-

You mean someone is taking your money by force without your consent?

Yes, that is serious. Let’s call it the ‘mortgage cyclone bomb’.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 5:48 pm

@#158 Sail Away
“TSLA is +3517% since then. If our theoretical investor had $40k invested in 2019, it would now be worth around $1.4M.”

+++

Only when you sell it.
And don’t forget those capital gains taxes…..and after next March with the new budget….higher capital gains taxes.

#68 Joseph R. on 10.26.21 at 5:49 pm

#57 Integrated Circuit on 10.26.21 at 5:16 pm

Get rid of Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Tiktok and any other social media apps if you are afraid of being tracked.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 5:53 pm

@#158 Ponzies Programmed Poop Plunger
“I hear the Germans are designing a robot that can hold a wrench.
And it looks like CEF.”

+++
Does the robot pay huge taxes like Crowdiefartz?

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 5:58 pm

@#48 Sail Away
“Well. Christopher Plummer played Captain Von Trapp in the Sound of Music, which I understand was by far the best movie ever to be set in Austria, and he is still universally celebrated throughout Austria.”

+++
Shhhhh.
Don’t tell anyone from Austria but …… Plummer loathed that movie.

https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/christopher-plummer-ballistic-sound-of-music.html/#:~:text=Christopher%20Plummer%20hated%20filming%20'The%20Sound%20of%20Music'&text=He%20told%20the%20Boston%20Globe,gooey%2C%E2%80%9D%20according%20to%20Insider.

Plummer referred to the Movie as ” The Sound of Mucus”

#71 Chuck Norris on 10.26.21 at 5:59 pm

On the Internet, everybody is Chuck Norris. – Garth

Garth, the others are imposters. Accept no substitutes.

#72 Rent the podium on 10.26.21 at 6:03 pm

Of those using all-in-one ETFs that rebalance for you, such as XGRO, is there any concentration risk concern in having all your money with one outfit, such as Blackrock? Does anyone split their portfolio among similar competing ETFs, such as VGRO with Vanguard, for this reason?

#73 Faron on 10.26.21 at 6:04 pm

#41 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 4:44 pm
#5 Faron on 10.26.21 at 2:01 pm

What an ignorant fool you are

——-

…professionalism…

TL;DR — Professional poker players call spades spades.

Ya know. In the world of the sciences that I’ve been a part of there has been no shortage of hot debate. When it’s clear that a stubborn arse is flogging evidence that doesn’t hold up, sometimes they are called ignorant. Other times they are eviscerated and then called ignorant. It’s uncomfortable to witness and painful to be the recipient of, but can be an apt descriptor and is a useful teacher when deserved. Professional? Who cares if it minimizes people wasting their time on faulty ideas or crappy data/information.

Your views of the record-breaking cyclone are ignorant. The way you parleyed that information was foolish. Thus, you are an ignorant fool. That’s my professional take. My consultation invoice will be sent along shortly.

That you mentioned TSLA makes it even more clear that you are, for some reason unbeknownst to you and anyone else, desperate for attention. I very often feel sorry for chaps like yourself. Ignorant fools are one thing. Pathetic, ignorant fools are another.

#74 The republic of oilbertatsan - no more on 10.26.21 at 6:05 pm

CN tower climbing greenpeace activist in charge of environment.. oh this will be fun!

Those equalization payments are sure going be needed in the future..!!! once the new environment minister puts the end to Oilberta…

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-putting-an-activist-in-charge-of-a-government-department-is-always-dangerous

#75 IHCTD9 on 10.26.21 at 6:10 pm

#6 Philco on 10.26.21 at 2:11 pm
Hey IHCTD9
Thanks for the replies! Got a good chuckle. Got busy on the run. Cheers
——

Always enjoy some truck talk!

#76 Dolce Vita on 10.26.21 at 6:12 pm

#54 Vocal Edit

Yup.

Blame Marketing, Big Data + Cloud, Social Media and any device that interacts with them (and of course, us users).

Voyeurism worldwide with innocuous, completely unrelated words to disguise intent.

Lipstick on a pig stuff.

#77 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 6:15 pm

#5 Faron on 10.26.21 at 2:01 pm
#44 Sail Away on 10.25.21 at 3:31 pm

Re: Hysterical cyclone hyperbole

This thing was Beaufort 12 near it’s centre with gusts over 70kt. 60 kt recorded on Solander Island.

——-

60 knots is around 110 km/h. Just for kicks, I looked at historical wind speeds at Solander Island during Dec 2020, and discovered 16 days exceeding 100 kph. That’s, like, almost half the month.

I take back my disdain. This barely ever happens. Much rare.

https://weatherspark.com/h/s/145157/2020/3/Historical-Weather-Winter-2020-at-Solander-Island-Meteorological-Aeronautical-Presentation-System-Canada#Figures-WindSpeed

#78 Trojan House on 10.26.21 at 6:16 pm

“…and we haven’t even started on the kids yet.”

As other countries ban, or limit, the use of the vaccines for young people, North America just continues to truck along trying to vaccinate everyone under the sun.

I don’t get how “the science” is different in different parts of the world.

#79 MD on 10.26.21 at 6:16 pm

Landed in this beautiful less house lusty country in 2003, completed my equivalent certification and got a decent paying job with DB in 2004, bought my first home a 1700 sq ft townhouse for 262k @ 5.2% family income 90k, sold after 5 years for 342k and got a 2500 sq ft house for 499k at 3.09% with income of 120k in 2012, renewed in 2017 @ 2.59% and will be renewing again this dec for the rate that will be offered at that time. Currently houses on street are selling north of 1.4 mil. I want to see the reaction when interest rate goes up even 0.25%. Till than watching the party going full blast. Interesting times ahead.

#80 Barb on 10.26.21 at 6:17 pm

Viola, condolences on the loss of your sweet Kelsey.

#81 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 6:26 pm

Faron:
Official, bogus , politically tainted , inflation number going forward will be posted at around 5 to 7 , the true number will likely be 11 to 13.

Roaring inflation to me is over 5 for an extended time, and I believe we have had roaring inflation for at least 3 years.

Is that clear and concise enough?

I also stand by my assertion that central bankers are slaves of the politicians.

#82 joe on 10.26.21 at 6:31 pm

@ #1 SW

It’s been a lot more scary enduring these several months with Biden.

#83 Free solar panels for everyone! on 10.26.21 at 6:37 pm

The new enviro minister dude will be providing some solar panels for Kenny and Oilbertans.. what a sweet guy!…

“Greenpeace activists carry a solar panel to install on Alberta Premier Ralph Klelin’s home in Calgary in 2002. The environmental activists installed the small solar panel to bring attention to the renewable energy revolution underway around the world and Alberta’s opposition to the Koyoto agreement. Photo by Grant Black /Calgary Herald

Greenpeace campaigner Guilbeault said: “We’re offering Mr. and Mrs. Klein a gift of solar panels, a gift of the future. That’s what the energy of the future should be about. It will be about solar and wind energy.”

#84 habitt on 10.26.21 at 6:43 pm

Alberta votes to remove equalization from the constitution. We have truly lost our way.

#85 Integrated Circuit on 10.26.21 at 6:54 pm

#67 Joseph R. on 10.26.21 at 5:49 pm

Get rid of Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Tiktok and any other social media apps if you are afraid of being tracked.
—-
NEVER EVER install this SPAM garbage in the first place.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 6:59 pm

I’m eating 2 bowls of chili tonight.
The elevator will be ‘Out of Order” tomorrow.

Who needs cable tv when one can amuse ones self for free.

#87 Bezengy on 10.26.21 at 7:01 pm

#62 Andrew

Having gone through the Covid crash with an aggressive portfolio and barely batting an eyelid at the crashes we experienced
——————-
I call BS. Maybe your recent gains have fogged your memory, but I very much doubt you didn’t feel some serious pain during last year’s crash, as I did with my all equity portfolio.

#88 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 7:16 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 5:48 pm
@#158 Sail Away

“TSLA is +3517% since then. If our theoretical investor had $40k invested in 2019, it would now be worth around $1.4M.”

——

Only when you sell it.
And don’t forget those capital gains taxes…..and after next March with the new budget….higher capital gains taxes.

——

So… $380k in taxes if realized this year. Hey, that’s right around Justin’s annual salary! There could be no greater honour than personally covering his holiness’s compensation.

#89 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:21 pm

#76 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 6:15 pm

#5 Faron on 10.26.21 at 2:01 pm

60 knots is around 110 km/h. Just for kicks, I looked at historical wind speeds at Solander Island during Dec 2020, and discovered 16 days exceeding 100 kph. That’s, like, almost half the month.

—–

The terms of your argument (whose goalposts you are sliding all over the place) were that the conditions were no worse than what you would and have sailed through. That was your basis for claiming the storm was a nothingburger and it’s utter BS. I’m willing to bet that you have never set foot on a sailboat under way with ambient winds that strong. Very very few people have.

The sub 942.5 mb low was a crush of the record for these waters and worthy of note for 46.2 degrees N latitude. More so for a scale that spanned at least 1000 mi. of shoreline.

I can’t help you if you are unwilling or incurious enough to try to understand that a record low pressure doesn’t always translate to record-breaking winds. I can’t help you if you can’t try to understand how this low filled as it approached shore or why the still-strong 978 mb wasn’t all that extreme.

Ignorant. You are foolishly digging yourself deeper here with zero clue what you are talking about.

#90 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:28 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 5:48 pm

@#158 Sail Away
“TSLA is +3517% since then. If our theoretical investor had $40k invested in 2019, it would now be worth around $1.4M.”

+++

Only when you sell it.
And don’t forget those capital gains taxes…..and after next March with the new budget….higher capital gains taxes.

Keep it simple Mr. fartz. When people are broken enough to put dollar figures in comments bragging to strangers, the best response is to just shake one’s head and walk away.

#91 GDPnow on 10.26.21 at 7:29 pm

US GDP has been collapsing for months.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19

that’s from the Atlanta Fed

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

the momentum in the economy has completely collapsed

#92 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:38 pm

For clarity on my stance with this storm because I also have a fragile ego :-)

Here:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2021/10/23/about-time/#comment-809423

Elsewhere on Friday:

Now I’ve seen everything. GEM Regional showing 939 mb at 15Z Sunday. Gradients ease substantially thereafter so, despite a still-deep 978 mb at landfall, this thing is looking less dangerous than it otherwise might be. BUT: listen to your ECCC pros

And Saturday on the impacts to California:

At 200 mm – 250 mm of rain in a place with recent burns and conditioned by drought, If there’s news from this one, it will come from here:

#93 Ed on 10.26.21 at 7:41 pm

Sailboats do pretty well in hurricanes…heres one that cruised thru a granddaddy without serious incident

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tuTKhqWZso&ab_channel=AntarcticDigitalHeritage

#94 jal on 10.26.21 at 7:48 pm

I’m in the 90%.
I come here to learn about what the 9.9% are doing to try to get into the 0.01%

I never knew that mom bank, which had to be part of the 9.9%, had such a effect on the housing prices.

How long can our social/economic system be sustainable with only 10% of the population?

#95 Alex on 10.26.21 at 7:49 pm

I’m fairly new to ETF investing so please bear with me. I’ve setup two separate ETF porfolios, the first one is Balanced (so 60/40) and the second one is is Growth (so 80/20). I try to deposit an equal amount of money between them monthly. This is probabaly a bad strategy but by experimenting with two ETFs with different risk level I wanted to study how they have performed over the last year. My question is that since the BoC is potentially turning off the stimulus tap and reducing bond-buying, does that mean that bonds will be worth less than stocks and that as of now I should be putting more money into the more higher risk ETF to maximize profits? If interest rates rise, I’m assuming a my 60/40 Balanced portfolio will be have much lower returns than the 80/20 Growth portfolio going forward. Thanks.

#96 Gee Dee Pee on 10.26.21 at 7:53 pm

#90 GDPnow

US GDP has been collapsing for months.

………………

The thought has crossed my mind that this whole thing was an excuse to inject $20T into the western economies as they were collapsing under their own weight after over a decade of emergency interest rates and sucky growth.

#97 Drew on 10.26.21 at 7:55 pm

Why wait? Why not increase the rates now?

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 8:07 pm

I’m looking forward to mortgage rates going up.
Not out of spite towards homeowners who have to renew or new home buyers.
I’m interested to see if the old economic formula:
Higher mortgages rates = lower house prices is still valid.
Or has house lust become so entrenched, that, like an alcoholic, mortgage holders and buyers are willing to pay anything to keep the trip going.
Should be fun to watch.
Popcorn is ready.

#99 Km on 10.26.21 at 8:16 pm

@jake, liquid wood hardener then wood filler hardener. No need for new sills.
I have restored plenty of wood this way in my restoration business.

#100 NoName on 10.26.21 at 8:18 pm

#88 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:21 pm
#76 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 6:15 pm

You two are phony sailors… No even funny words in comments, when covo gets all funny, but I deigress. Here is dude in home made diy boat going up and down 40ft swells around ouzistralia somewhere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2VIBEQWkeo

#101 Walker, Texas Ranger on 10.26.21 at 8:24 pm

Chuck Norris’ financial strategies;

Chuck Norris doesn’t need money he gets everything for free.

In Chuck Norris’ yard, money does grow on trees.

Chuck Norris does not play the lottery. It doesn’t have nearly enough balls.

Chuck Norris has never received an electricity bill, he powers everything with his rage.

Stores accept Monopoly money from Chuck Norris.

In 2011 someone asked Chuck Norris if he had ever been to Portugal. He answered: “Where?” The country went bankrupt.

Chuck Norris uses a stunt double during crying scenes.

Chuck is on the other side of every losing trade you make.

#102 FriedEggs on 10.26.21 at 8:30 pm

The answer to Linda’s supply/inventory concern may be addressed from Garth’s October 15th, 2020 article – ‘Virus Porn’

You know the ‘fake’ leaked PMO document

-Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.

–>Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.

#103 IHCTD9 on 10.26.21 at 8:36 pm

Ditching the gas hog for a fuel sipping old school oil burner was step one on the transportation cost front. Step two will be an aux 250 litre diesel tank for the bed. The local Rez is 20 minutes away from work, and sells diesel for about .30 less than the rest of Ontario. I’ll make 4-5 trips per year saving about 110.00 each time – all of which is pure 100% taxes. That’s on top of already cutting my fuel taxes in half via 50% less consumption. Step three will be mods to the truck for even better mileage – possibly another 25% reduction in consumption. Finally, since the old school 6.2 is an IDI setup, I will experiment with used motor oil and free junkyard/export equipment diesel for supplemental fuel, which has the potential to cut whatever remains of my fuel bill down another 25-30%.

From there I will move on to obliterating my heating fuel costs.

It just doesn’t make any sense to pay a pile of taxes in Canada for my demographic.

#104 New Canadian on 10.26.21 at 8:41 pm

I do not see any benefits investing in preferred shares. I see a lot of benefits for the issuers as investors provide them with a cheap capital source which they can often call back when it is convenient for them. The fund managers get their cut too of course through very high MERs for their PSs ETFs. Consider the following. The positive correlation between the movement of the shares of the issuers and the preferred shares they issue is very high. There is certainly no downside protection whatsoever (I know, I held both ZPR and CPD from 2014 onwards…) Yes, they are up lately. But so are many other asset classes so what’s the point. In terms of the long term return since the beginning of 2011 when CPD and XIU started to trade, compare the annual return of XIU (60 TSX Large Caps) at 7.76% vs. CPD’s annual return of 2.38% for the same period. Source: Morningstar. We know Garth’s position on preferred shares. What are blog dogs’ views? Am I alone in my view that preferred shares are just a very cheap and convenient source of capital for the issuers while being a rip off for long-term investors who get much higher returns holding the shares of issuers of preferred shares while benefiting from the same advantageous tax treatment as well? Hopefully this post will not get deleted as being “anti-preferred shares” :-)

#105 Garland Fox on 10.26.21 at 8:49 pm

My concerns are with a PM who seems to hate the country. By announcing a no-growth cabinet with most amateur MPs with zero experience we’re in for a long period of wheel spinning. Trudeaus hiring of a environmentalist activist “trickster” can only be meant as his last stab at country-wrecking.

Higher rates are assured, so are higher taxes and an obvious opening for an IMF downgrade. With foreign direct investment at negative zero, Trudeaus borrowings can only expand . With revenues at all time lows, the money to pander can only come from you.

Freelands call to redistribute your wealth is calling the demon of socialism from the graveyards of Eastern Europe where we know how effective socialism I’ve time can be. I see Democrat Party in the Obama led US is calling for “ unrealized capital gain” to be tax. Yes, tax before profit, just like Stalin.

In the last Liberal census several nasty words cropped up , “ under utilized” and “ unoccupied” , referring to the questions of how many bedrooms you had, used, usable and unused. Do we look forward to. Are we to be forced to take in Trudeaus new voters into our homes too? Im not good at sharing a bathroom with a family whose bathroom experiences have meant digging with shovels.

Yesterday the Vanc Sun ran a story of a Richmond snowbird who was attacked by the NDP for leaving his house vacant while away. People, this country is swirling down crapper.

#106 mike from mtl on 10.26.21 at 8:51 pm

#94 Alex on 10.26.21 at 7:49 pm
I’m fairly new to ETF investing so please bear with me. I’ve setup two separate ETF porfolios, the first one is Balanced (so 60/40) and the second one is is Growth (so 80/20).
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Pretty much like how I have it.

TFSA, non-reg and RSP.

TFSA and non-reg all TSX listed, balanced. RSP is 80/20 all USD since will be quite some time before it will be melted down. Flipping between currencies is costly and messy. I never do hedged, CA$ is middle of the road for now.

Personally on RSP I do 80/20 VOO & BND. Yes that pair easily smokes the complex balanced one but not something you can count on or look at regularly. Again as Garth and others point out you’re your own worst investor.

Yeah getting all clever putting asset classes per account type is crazy. Rebalancing is a mess and involves taxes. Personally I treat each account with no relation to the other.

**THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE**

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 8:58 pm

@#87 Sail Away
“So… $380k in taxes if realized this year. Hey, that’s right around Justin’s annual salary! There could be no greater honour than personally covering his holiness’s compensation.”

++++

The irony.
The govt would suck up $380,000 in taxes for doing absolutely nothing for that money but stand there with their hand out……. and they still can’t balance a budget.

@#89 Faron.

I love when people tell their house is “worth” $1.5 million…..
“Only if you sell it right now.”, is my rebuttal.

#108 the Jaguar on 10.26.21 at 9:00 pm

As the periphery of human madness draws ever closer one ponders how best to exit the asylum. Our Prime Minister poses with his new Cabinet today, all wearing black face masks. Not an inspiring or uplifting fashion choice. If they thought it was a ‘redo’ of ‘Coco Chanel’s ‘ Little Black Dress’, it was not. Oh well, at least they are consistent in maintaining my disappointment in all they do.
About this business of interest rate increases. We’ve been in a low rate environment for such a long time.

Those who see taking on a million dollar mortgage as ‘ just what all the other peeps are doin’, and “ain’t no big deal’ are about to experience herd spook in real time.
It’s like fire breaking out in a movie theater when it happens. Some of us still remember. The interesting part will be how a generation raised by helicopter moms, not so good at problem solving ( cause Mom did that), down payment provided by(guess who?), will handle the bad news that math indeed is “hard”. And contractural obligations unforgiving. The retort might be that if trouble comes knocking, assets can be sold, but when everybody is doing that at the same time it can be a little tricky. A little ‘sticky’ on the ol’ exit shute’ on the way down.

Living within one’s means, appreciation of the contentment a small footprint can bring, and making choices because they are ‘right for you’. Sensible advice for everyone, but why is it that only a thin slice follow it? Mercy.

Kelsey was a beautiful creature. Her expression says “I submit to the brushing because I am a Princess and must look my best for my loyal subjects”.

#109 Nonplused on 10.26.21 at 9:06 pm

#15 In Dog We Trust on 10.26.21 at 2:41 pm
$85 oil because demand dried up for a good part of early COVID where Sawdi Barberia & Vlad eventually turned down the taps such that now there is not enough flow for the post COVID… The Western world needs to apply some muscle upon these oil barons…

—————————————–

Do you mean, like, start a war with them or maybe drop a few bombs to send a message? I don’t think that will go over well.

They don’t have to sell if they don’t want to. Full stop.

The declines in oil production are lead by US shale, which is uneconomic below about $80/bbl and was in decline before covid came along. Shale oil is expensive and short lived, so it just didn’t make sense to keep drilling wells when the exploration companies were losing money. Now, even at $85, shale oil drilling is taking a while to respond because the banks don’t trust it and it takes a while to stand up a rig once the bank finally agrees to finance it.

It’s fun to blame Russia and maybe Saudi Arabia for everything but we did most of it to ourselves. Remember, Biden’s first act once in office was to cancel Keystone XL. There is 900,000 bbls a day that would be arriving at the refineries in Texas shortly that appears will never be built. Can’t blame Russia for that.

#110 Nonplused on 10.26.21 at 9:10 pm

#23 RG on 10.26.21 at 3:31 pm

“Where can I buy SHTF? What’s the MER?”

Canadian Tire, Princess Auto, Home Depot, and Costco all stock SHTF. MER is currently 4.4%

#111 NoName on 10.26.21 at 9:14 pm

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 8:58 pm
@#87 Sail Away
“So… $380k in taxes if realized this year. Hey, that’s right around Justin’s annual salary! There could be no greater honour than personally covering his holiness’s compensation.”

++++

The irony.
The govt would suck up $380,000 in taxes for doing absolutely nothing for that money but stand there with their hand out……. and they still can’t balance a budget.

@#89 Faron.

I love when people tell their house is “worth” $1.5 million…..
“Only if you sell it right now.”, is my rebuttal.

https://imgur.com/a/EfmlBP7

#112 Brunett43 on 10.26.21 at 9:35 pm

Garth, you get nice pooch pics. That is a gorgeous Sheltie.
That’s all I have to say for today!

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 9:39 pm

@#108 the jaguar
“Our Prime Minister poses with his new Cabinet today, all wearing black face masks.”

+++

Because they know fiscal death stalks the country?

On another note:
A Lawyer/professor has replaced a former General as Defense Minister?
What the Hell, our Finance Minister is a former journalist.

#114 Ha Ha Hamilton! on 10.26.21 at 10:03 pm

Hamilton is the 5th least affordable city in North America?

You know what, it is clearly the weed. I blame the weed.

Hamilton!!!!

What’s in Hamilton?

I don’t even want to stop there on the way to Niagara on the Lake.

I certainly close the windows and ensure the AC is on recirculation mode when I drive by.

Hamilton! The home of…the bridge I drive over? The cancer air? The Cats of some sort?

Honestly…once there was a killer commercial building for sale cheap there, and I passed on it just so I could avoid any unnecessary breaths of air taken in Hamilton.

CANADA, you’ve lost it!

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-has-four-of-the-10-most-affordable-and-four-of-the-least-affordable-cities-in-north-america

#115 45north on 10.26.21 at 10:06 pm

Billy Buoy

A great article based on reality:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/10/18/spike-in-energy-prices-suggests-that-sharp-changes-are-ahead/
Would love to read any arguments stating otherwise.

from your link
I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.
In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

debt and interest rates are a big part of this complexity. They are going to be a big part of collapse. We have to invest in oil and gas. At some point that’s going to be obvious.

#116 Nutty Squirel on 10.26.21 at 10:08 pm

LOC question – if rates are going to rise and someone is borrowing from their LOC to invest in 60/40 etf investment- at what point does it become not worth it.

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 10:10 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 5:58 pm
@#48 Sail Away
“Well. Christopher Plummer played Captain Von Trapp in the Sound of Music, which I understand was by far the best movie ever to be set in Austria, and he is still universally celebrated throughout Austria.”

+++
Shhhhh.
Don’t tell anyone from Austria but …… Plummer loathed that movie.

https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/christopher-plummer-ballistic-sound-of-music.html/#:~:text=Christopher%20Plummer%20hated%20filming%20'The%20Sound%20of%20Music'&text=He%20told%20the%20Boston%20Globe,gooey%2C%E2%80%9D%20according%20to%20Insider.

Plummer referred to the Movie as ” The Sound of Mucus”
—————–
You’re right CEF.
Aside from Julie Andrews, the movie was a price of crap.
As for Austrian celebrating the movie:
99% of Austrians probably have never heard about the movie.
When I came to Canada, people always were surprised that I had no knowledge of the movie.
They all loved it.
So of course, I had to watch it, to see what I was not missing.
You’re right that Chris “Plumber” hated the movie.
Typical Hollywood garbage, with not a single Austrian person on the set.  Visit  Salzburg, and you’ll see the North Americans all over the place.
Good for Austrian Tourism, for sure.

#118 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.26.21 at 10:11 pm

I see Captain Thunderpants is picking fights with everyone again… Must be watching caulk dry again…

#119 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 10:21 pm

#118 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.26.21 at 10:11 pm

I see Captain Thunderpants is picking fights with everyone again… Must be watching caulk dry again…

———

Yep. As always- gratuitous insults and a complete misframing of comments made in order to create a strawman he can attack.

Into every life, a little rain must fall… but a lot less than the Fantastic F predicted. I think it was 1,000 mm! Over ten days?

#120 Faron on 10.26.21 at 10:26 pm

#118 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.26.21 at 10:11 pm

I see Captain Thunderpants is picking fights with everyone

Nope, just two ignorami. Welcome, your timing is impeccable.

#121 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 10:30 pm

#100 NoName on 10.26.21 at 8:18 pm
#88 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:21 pm
#76 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 6:15 pm

You two are phony sailors… No even funny words in comments, when covo gets all funny, but I deigress. Here is dude in home made diy boat going up and down 40ft swells around ouzistralia somewhere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2VIBEQWkeo

——–

I am indeed as noted here for both bluewater sailing and investing. And those are not 40′ swells. 40′ nonbreaking swells are not really a thing. 40′ waves would be breaking continuously and it would be a lot more hurricane-y.

#122 Nonplused on 10.26.21 at 10:36 pm

No Christmas orgy this year. The headline says it all:

https://babylonbee.com/news/psaki-points-out-that-inflation-doesnt-matter-since-there-are-no-goods-to-purchase-anyway

#123 Nonplused on 10.26.21 at 10:40 pm

This one is good too.

https://babylonbee.com/news/no-one-wins-nascar-race-as-gas-gets-too-expensive-for-anyone-to-make-it-to-the-finish-line

Doesn’t affect me though because I just put $50 in my tank every time! Gas prices don’t affect me! there is always a solution, you just have to think outside the box.

#124 fishman on 10.26.21 at 11:07 pm

I see that Hollywood mixed up the blank & live rounds. We done that with way more gusto & smoke & fire up here in Hollywood North. Around 1901 the Feds finished building the Beatty St. Drill Hall. Home of the British Columbia Regiment ( Duke of Connaught’s Own). The new digs party’s grand finale to be an enactment of a fire fight & bayonetting of the dirty Boer. Lots of noise & black powder for the ladies & kids. One side, I think it was the “Dukes” that were dressed like the dirty Boer that had the live rounds. The blood & gore & screams of the ladies brought that passion play to a halt.
Coincidently the Duke of Connaught’s Own Colonel, Harjit Sajjan got Truman-MacArthured by lil potato today. Probably for forming his officers in a circle & ordering them to commence firing inward. I don’t think those men were firing blanks all the time either. I know I sure didn’t thirty years ago.

#125 DON on 10.26.21 at 11:09 pm

Relentless rain on the Island even in Vic…I can imagine the deluge in Van…where it rains sideways and an umbrella is useless in the wind. There is a reason Mountain Equipment Co took off gortex rain hackets.

In Sooke my friend tells me some logging roads are washed out, he is busy repairing.

Be safe out there!

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.26.21 at 11:15 pm

Breaking News:
New Zealand will ban Single Family zoning beginning next Summer in expensive areas.
Germany is mulling the same.
Advocates are advising the City of Vancouver to consider doing the same.
Stay tuned for more details on The Greater Fool News Network (Not affiliated with FOX NEWS)

#127 DON on 10.26.21 at 11:26 pm

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.26.21 at 9:39 pm
@#108 the jaguar
“Our Prime Minister poses with his new Cabinet today, all wearing black face masks.”

+++

Because they know fiscal death stalks the country?

On another note:
A Lawyer/professor has replaced a former General as Defense Minister?
What the Hell, our Finance Minister is a former journalist.

**********
Yup! It’s hard to take. They are already campaigning for more votes in BC.

And there used to be a time when only robbers wore face masks…wait a minute!

#128 IsleOfVanMan on 10.27.21 at 12:01 am

18 Ponzius Pilatus
you just don’t get it, do ya. Plumbers will always be in short supply because it’s tough, dirty work and a low status profession… nobody is ever aspiring to be a lowly plumber. Plumbers perform essential skilled work. so you saw a plumber replacing a leaky faucet and think they’re so overpaid but the reality is a plumber has to deal with an array of headache jobs that take smarts and years of experience to do effectively and efficiently. A plumber doesn’t learn at a school… the learning is by doing. Sorry but it’s the same billing rate regardless to replace your leaky faucet… that’s too bad for you Ponzi for being too inept to change it yourself. Trades workers doing service work are non stop dealing with headache problems. No paid holidays or sick days for them either, which means plumbers deserve a premium over other workers. Plumbers are typically gasfitters also, doing furnace and boiler work which also commands a premium.
BTW why are you constantly picking on the lowly plumbers when school teachers are working 9 months of the year, if that, and making nearly 6 figures ? That works out to a higher wage than a plumber earns. A school teacher has no risk of physical injury on the job… no chance of wrecking their knees or being electrocuted or blown up working on a gas leak, or falling off a ladder, or risk of infection from working with sewage pipes.
Ponzi you should open your eyes and see that a typical plumbing company, in addition to the expenses of the work vehicle, there is an office staff that needs to be supported… dispatch, accounting, foreman, sales staff etc so the bill out rate has to factor that in. Lately you’re nothing more than a broken record whining about plumbers… it’s so pathetic of you. If you want to do the work yourself and save the money go right on ahead.
Btw I’m university educated but chose to work in trades. not a plumber… actually the wage in my trade is higher than plumber.

#129 Faron on 10.27.21 at 12:13 am

#119 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 10:21 pm
#118 ImGonnaBeSick on 10.26.21 at 10:11 pm

Yep. As always- gratuitous insults

Well, as I said, calling an ignorant person ignorant could feel insulting to the subject. But truth hurts sometimes.

and a complete misframing of comments made in order to create a strawman he can attack.

HELLO, you were the one whining about being mislead and that the storm was something you experienced. Misframing nothing. I am directly refuting your claims. I apologize if, unbeknownst to me, you are actually made of straw. You do seem to have passing resemblances to at least one straw stuffed member of the Oz crew.

Into every life, a little rain must fall… but a lot less than the Fantastic F predicted. I think it was 1,000 mm! Over ten days?

Oh, look, you are moving the goalpost (some might call that ‘misframing’) again to something completely unrelated. Because you are losing this argument.

Up to end of yesterday, one choice location is at 362.8 mm since I hit send on that comment three days ago (155 mm per day is well on pace) 397 mm since the forecast start at 4 AM Saturday and 582 mm in the storm cycle arbitrarily taken as midnight on the 21st. Today probably added another 80 mm. So, that brings us to 477 mm using the model’s temporal baseline I was referencing. We’ll know tomorrow.

Happy to send you the data. Phenomenal site, but the chance that one spot happens to be in the area with the highest precip is very small, so peak totals will be much higher in the most preferred aspects. I’ll go with the models on this one, thanks. Easily another 250 mm in the forecast before it dries out for the weekend according to the HRDPS. That will bring us to 720 mm and shy of the mark at that site, but again, the rainiest sites aren’t sampled.

#130 Faron on 10.27.21 at 12:30 am

#81 Quintilian on 10.26.21 at 6:26 pm

Faron:
Official, bogus , politically tainted , inflation number going forward will be posted at around 5 to 7 , the true number will likely be 11 to 13.

Roaring inflation to me is over 5 for an extended time, and I believe we have had roaring inflation for at least 3 years.

Is that clear and concise enough?

I also stand by my assertion that central bankers are slaves of the politicians.

Thanks, that is clear although I would like to see evidence that the numbers are bogus or politically tainted. Regardless, appreciated. PPI hit 1.3% MoM for September. Lots of noise there, but that’s close to your number. US Fed goes by PPI apparently, so worth tracking.

The US Fed’s mandate is price stability and max employment. I assume that’s true for Canada’s CB. Lately “smooth market functioning” has come in there too. I’d worry that the fed is too focussed on the performance of equities (smooth market functioning) than I would worry about it being beholden to politicians. Regardless, CBs seem to be failing to protect the less well off in favour of inflating assets of the richest. I’m not a fan, but for different reasons than yours.

#131 Tom from Mississauga on 10.27.21 at 1:03 am

Put my entire LIRA in the ZSP and set to DRIP in 2013, it’s been a 16.5% compounded return. What has kept me some selling in the many panics since is I don’t know the password. Try that Andrew.

#132 Jane24 on 10.27.21 at 3:00 am

I have just returned from a few days in France, we live in England and the British Airways tickets were too cheap to ignore and I can report that you need proof of double vaccine, soon to be triple vaccine (each shot six months apart), to even enter a kids’ play park in France. Even for an outside seated coffee they wanted to see our UK NHS print-out of vaccine proof or leave.

So people refusing to take up these jabs will soon have a very small world to travel in. Covid is not going away. We will have to learn to live with it. It will always now be proof of however number of jabs you need, all spaced 6 months apart. If you haven’t started this process yet it will take you 18 months to get on a plane.

#133 Biden is Number 1 on 10.27.21 at 6:55 am

Garth says…..” Also being in US$ exclusively adds currency risk. Just wait until Mr. Trump returns…”

I am puzzled by that statement. How could he return? Biden won fair and square and is doing a great job, surely the previous voters of Biden would never wander from their loyalty, they will support him again. Trump doesn’t stand a chance.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.21 at 8:07 am

@#133 Biden is a one term wonder

“Trump doesn’t stand a chance.”
+++

As much as I loathe the Orange Cheeto.
Trump could run for office again in 2024.

Unless he’s in jail.

One wonders when the US will place age limits on Presidents.
These geriatric candidates are getting a bit long in the tooth.

#135 the Jaguar on 10.27.21 at 8:11 am

@133 Biden is Number 1:

‘Biden won fair and square and is doing a great job, surely the previous voters of Biden would never wander from their loyalty, they will support him again. ‘
+++

Not everybody sees it that way. From this morning’s National Post:

“WASHINGTON Kamala Harris, pictured, appears to be publicly distancing herself from Joe Biden to avoid fallout ahead of a potential White House run in 2024 as the U.S. president suffers in the polls.

The frequency of meetings, both private and public, between them has declined dramatically, especially since the president’s popularity began plummeting after the Afghanistan withdrawal in late August.

An almost complete absence of joint public appearances since then appeared to confirm a previous report that White House strategists have deliberately decided to shield the vice president from political contamination.

Biden’s approval rating has now fallen faster in his first nine months than any president since the Second World War, and he faces a multitude of crises including rising inflation and supply chain issues.”

#136 Sail Away on 10.27.21 at 8:16 am

#129 Faron on 10.27.21 at 12:13 am

Happy to send you the data. Phenomenal site, but the chance that one spot happens to be in the area with the highest precip is very small, so peak totals will be much higher in the most preferred aspects.

——–

Yes, please link the site.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.21 at 8:19 am

@#124 fishman
“Coincidently the Duke of Connaught’s Own Colonel, Harjit Sajjan got Truman-MacArthured by lil potato today. ”

+++
Yep.

The Brits promote a new Minister of Defense from the ranks of the Navy.
Canada fills another gender equality spot with a Lawyer/Professor who “gets things done” .
And the bureaucrats ranks grow larger.
I can see it now.
The Canadian Military will throw politically correct questionnaire paperwork at the enemy.
Canada has 40 year old F-18’s that we endlessly debate replacing , we’re eradicating our tanks, our ships are under endless construction as China ( in the words of one US Admiral), “Builds warships like we make sausages.”

Another bureaucrat at the head of the Canadian Armed Forces….that should improve morale.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.21 at 8:29 am

@#128 IsleofVan

Ponzie wishes he was a plumber.
Alas his best years of pushing paper as an accountant are behind him and all those years creating paperwork ruined him for his secret desire…..plunging plugged toilets.
Weird but true.

#139 LTC on 10.27.21 at 8:53 am

Not protected during first wave.

Not protected during second wave…because we weren’t able to learn from the first wave.

Late getting vaccines in the third wave…because it’s too hard to drive the vaccine out to an LTC. Where are these places anyway? We can’t find them. Virus can, but we can’t!

Dying during the 4th wave again now as they are not given the obviously needed boosters in a timely manner.

Military personnel revealing that people died of dehydration and starvation in these locked down LTCs, of course denied by those who never step foot inside.

What else could they be doing to “take care of” the LTC problem?

Turns out the rolodex is not out of ideas just yet!

https://globalnews.ca/news/8327685/expired-flu-shots-toronto-long-term-care-home/

#140 Do we have all the facts on 10.27.21 at 9:01 am

I am old enough to remember how monetary policies that substantially increased M2 money supply in the United States during the early 1970’s triggered a rapid increase in inflation. This inflationary spiral was accelerated by a rapid increase in oil prices initiated by OPEC but the root cause was a decision to lower interest rates and increase M2 money supply in an effort to stimulate economic growth.

Nobel prize winner Milton Friedman hit the nail on the head when he observed that “inflation is always a monetary phenomenon”.

The Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada appear to have embraced the concept of large budgetary deficits introduced by John Maynard Keynes and have decided to ignore the obvious impact that a rapid increase in M2 money supply has on inflation.

It might be useful for all those who believe that the good times will never end to review what happened in North America during the 1970’s and the measures taken to restore inflation to a manageable level.

Richard Nixon honestly believed that the inflation caused by short term monetary policies designed to stimulate economic growth and to reduce unemployment could be controlled. Is it possible that the consequences of the short term monetary policies introduced in the 1970’s and repeated by the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada in 2020 and 2021 are beginning to reappear.

If inflation is always a monetary phenomenon it stands to reason that the solution to high levels of inflation will require the correction of policies that initiated a substantial increase in M2 money supply in Canada.

One necessary correction will be a substantial increase in interest rates by the Bank of Canada.

#141 leebow on 10.27.21 at 9:18 am

#104 New Canadian

My statistical model prescribes 30% CPD lately. So here is an opinion unclouded by deliberation.

#142 Wrk.dover on 10.27.21 at 9:40 am

#103 IHCTD9 on 10.26.21 at 8:36 pm
Ditching the gas hog for a fuel sipping old school oil burner was step one on the transportation cost front. Step two will be an aux 250 litre diesel tank for the bed.
___________________________________

500lb sand bag equivalent. Hmm, that should help winter braking in a 30 years old truck doing 110-120 on your beloved 401. While you re-invent the wheel, try warping your rotors to simulate ABS, Chief.

#143 Idiot slaves will accept everything on 10.27.21 at 10:21 am

132 Jane24 on 10.27.21 at 3:00 am
I have just returned from a few days in France, we live in England and the British Airways tickets were too cheap to ignore and I can report that you need proof of double vaccine, soon to be triple vaccine (each shot six months apart), to even enter a kids’ play park in France. Even for an outside seated coffee they wanted to see our UK NHS print-out of vaccine proof or leave.

#144 Faron on 10.27.21 at 10:28 am

#136 Sail Away on 10.27.21 at 8:16 am

#129 Faron on 10.27.21 at 12:13 am

Happy to send you the data. Phenomenal site, but the chance that one spot happens to be in the area with the highest precip is very small, so peak totals will be much higher in the most preferred aspects.

——–

Yes, please link the site.

Here’s a back-end link to the site. Excuse the ugly formatting, this is meant for computers to parse, not humans.

https://data.pacificclimate.org/data/pcds/lister/raw/FLNRO-WMB/956/

As predicted, brought in another 88 mm yesterday. The station isn’t far from the 5040 “trailhead”. Effingham Lake is ephemeral and likely fills during the wettest events. The ridge from Nahmint that abuts 5040 has an elevation of about 1300 m and typically retains snow well into September because the sheer amounts are massive. Henderson Lake, just down the valley, recorded similar totals when it was in operation. There are a few nearby sites with larger amounts, but their data are suspect. The station is not for use when snow is falling as it’s a rain-only gauge.

Large precip totals like this are also supported by the OLYMPEx dataset collected a few years back and ongoing observations made in the Olympic Mountains. Island topography oriented to the SW acts as a funnel during heavy rainfall events. The totals achieved are massive and approach some of the rainiest places on earth. You can imagine that there are unmonitored sites along the Pacific Coast that would have higher totals. The chances that anyone has stuck a rain gauge in the rainiest spot on the coast are small given that the job of these networks is to support operations, not record climate.

#145 Dharma Bum on 10.27.21 at 10:31 am

Re: Today’s Picture

Where is that beach?

I need to back a truck up to that shore and load up those beautiful massive rocks in the background to build a retaining wall.

Then, unless I rent a large enough truck in the first place, I will return to load up all of that gorgeous river stone for my upcoming extensive landscaping requirements.

#146 Editrix on 10.27.21 at 10:32 am

To support Garth’s assertion that the government doesn’t interfere with the BoC’s rate hike decisions, do you really think the government wouldn’t have stopped the 20% interest rates in 1982 or the 12% ones in 1990 if they could have?

I was in high school in 1982 and a friend’s parents almost lost their Kingsway house because of the mortgage renewal rate. However, I don’t understand how the interest rates zoomed up so quickly back then.

#147 BillyBob on 10.27.21 at 10:48 am

#73 Faron on 10.26.21 at 6:04 pm

the rest TL;DR

“…you are, for some reason unbeknownst to you and anyone else, desperate for attention. I very often feel sorry for chaps like yourself. Ignorant fools are one thing. Pathetic, ignorant fools are another.”

==================================================

Take a look in the mirror, Faron. You may be the least self-aware person alive.

“Desperate for attention” from the guy who’s posted like what, ten times today alone? All filled with caustic verbosity which instantly negates whatever you’re blathering on about. Such a positive addition to the blog.

While I know this might invite the usual bleating about “scroll past, free speech, muh rightz”, maybe take a break from trying to win the internet once in awhile. Sail Away and some of us are having fun, you clearly…are not.

#148 IHCTD9 on 10.27.21 at 10:49 am

#142 Wrk.dover on 10.27.21 at 9:40 am
#103 IHCTD9 on 10.26.21 at 8:36 pm
Ditching the gas hog for a fuel sipping old school oil burner was step one on the transportation cost front. Step two will be an aux 250 litre diesel tank for the bed.
___________________________________

500lb sand bag equivalent. Hmm, that should help winter braking in a 30 years old truck doing 110-120 on your beloved 401. While you re-invent the wheel, try warping your rotors to simulate ABS, Chief.
____

Err, – so you’re thinking I’m planning on driving around everyday with hundreds of litres of extra fuel onboard?

#149 Quintilian on 10.27.21 at 10:53 am

At the direction of politicians, Central Bankers have used excessive monetary stimulus, in tandem with excessive direct government expenditures.

They just didn’t know when to stop.

So now we have so much inflation it can’t be hidden with fancy math, and raising interest rates is not an option.

Too much debt attached to distorted asset values, makes it a political liability.

Higher stealth taxation is the only option. And, yes that will also slow down the economy.

#150 Faron on 10.27.21 at 10:55 am

#121 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 10:30 pm

#100 NoName on 10.26.21 at 8:18 pm
#88 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:21 pm
#76 Sail Away on 10.26.21 at 6:15 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2VIBEQWkeo

I am indeed as noted here for both bluewater sailing and investing. And those are not 40′ swells. 40′ nonbreaking swells are not really a thing. 40′ waves would be breaking continuously and it would be a lot more hurricane-y.

The 58kts noted in that video is bogus. You aren’t standing on deck filming when it’s blowing 58 kt. Probably the peak gust recorded at some point and then massaged with a little story telling.

The Beaufort scale is an age-old means of estimating wind at sea. Here’s the description for Beaufort 11 or 58kt:

Exceptionally high waves; small- and medium-sized ships might be for a long time lost to view behind the waves; sea is covered with long white patches of foam; everywhere the edges of the wave crests are blown into foam; visibility affected.

Looks more like Beaufort 8.

Moderately high waves of greater length; edges of crests break into spindrift; foam is blown in well-marked streaks along the direction of the wind

With wave height coming from swell rather than the immediate conditions.

#151 IHCTD9 on 10.27.21 at 10:58 am

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.21 at 8:29 am
@#128 IsleofVan

Ponzie wishes he was a plumber.
Alas his best years of pushing paper as an accountant are behind him and all those years creating paperwork ruined him for his secret desire…..plunging plugged toilets.
Weird but true.
__

Poor paper pushing Ponzie pursues plugged plumbing plunging.

#152 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.27.21 at 11:14 am

138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.21 at 8:29 am
@#128 IsleofVan

Ponzie wishes he was a plumber.
Alas his best years of pushing paper as an accountant are behind him and all those years creating paperwork ruined him for his secret desire…..plunging plugged toilets.
Weird but true.
—————————————
True.
I always envied the chiseled abs and biceps of the plummers.
I heard some yoga classes are now teaching “The PLummer” position.
It’s now more popular than “The Lotus”.
It’s BYOTP (Bring your own toilet and plunger)

#153 Sail Away on 10.27.21 at 11:42 am

#144 Faron on 10.27.21 at 10:28 am

Here’s a back-end link to the site. Excuse the ugly formatting, this is meant for computers to parse, not humans.

——–

Thanks

#154 IHCTD9 on 10.27.21 at 11:43 am

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.21 at 8:19 am
@#124 fishman
“Coincidently the Duke of Connaught’s Own Colonel, Harjit Sajjan got Truman-MacArthured by lil potato today. ”

+++
Yep.

The Brits promote a new Minister of Defense from the ranks of the Navy.
Canada fills another gender equality spot with a Lawyer/Professor who “gets things done” .
And the bureaucrats ranks grow larger.
I can see it now.
The Canadian Military will throw politically correct questionnaire paperwork at the enemy.
____

It just doesn’t pay to feed the Justin Trudeau Liberals any revenues. That’s why I carve it to the marrow. In my hands, at least the cash will end up doing some good. Plus, I have a ball making sure it stays in my wallet.

At this point, half our Cabinet would not be able to hold an intelligent conversation with any of their peers working parallel positions for other countries. That includes Trudeau. Competence and experience doesn’t even matter here – other attributes (subservience/woke checklist) matter much more.

Canada is just dive bombing itself into the tarmac. I can’t even keep up with all the things that have gone straight to hell since October of 2015. It is unreal how much damage has been done in so short a time. The “Old Canada” seems a distant history, the “New Canada” is obviously filled with some of the dumbest people on earth.

I hope rates soar, RE crashes, and the whole country gets a long extended round of shock therapy. It has to come from the people, and we’ve either become totally complacent or utterly stupid.

#155 Faron on 10.27.21 at 11:47 am

#147 BillyBob on 10.27.21 at 10:48 am
#73 Faron on 10.26.21 at 6:04 pm

You may be the least self-aware person alive.

From above:

” #92 Faron on 10.26.21 at 7:38 pm

For clarity on my stance with this storm because I also have a fragile ego :-) ”

So, doubtful. Self-awareness isn’t a problem I have. And picking apart Sail Away on a topic in my wheelhouse is fun. I’m enjoying it at least.

9 Comments from Crowdie, yet no commentary from you. Why is that? Why are you nosing in? Maybe you should dig in a little, look up my colleagues again, have a peek into github, maybe my blog? My Twitter account? I’m sure the answers are in there somewhere. Otherwise, GFY until we have a conversation. LOL.

#156 Brian on 10.27.21 at 12:03 pm

Hi all,
Anybody know if the inflation rate has any relation to an inflation indexed DB pension and its current commuted value?(taking it out before maturity)
I am aware low interest rates have an inverse relation but not sure if inflation rate is used in calculation.

#157 Sail Away on 10.27.21 at 12:03 pm

#145 Dharma Bum on 10.27.21 at 10:31 am

Re: Today’s Picture

Where is that beach?

I need to back a truck up to that shore and load up those beautiful massive rocks in the background to build a retaining wall.

——–

Haha, good luck. That is clearly a man-made erosion protection revetment, so somebody, likely a municipality, has paid dearly to have them placed there.

Also, I’d estimate them as around 1.5m square-ish blocks of basalt. A specific gravity of 3 yields a density of 3,000 kg/cubic meter, so each stone weighs somewhere in the range of 10,000 kg. You’ll get 3, possibly 4 in a dump truck and will need a 300-series excavator.

Just build an Allen Block retaining wall. Way cheaper, logistically easier, and you won’t get arrested.

#158 chalkie on 10.27.21 at 2:31 pm

As sure as God made little green apples, he will also need to print more green backs to get the millennials through this mess, the true impact of financial pain will start around the spring of 2022.
The down payment money loans payback that was promised to Mommy and Daddy wont be available, because the banks will be digging deeper in the kids pockets that one ever expected. History always repeats its self, keep watching the sunrise and not the rearview mirror. A fair percentage of the youth will soon learn that the 1% loans was a regretful choice and not a blessing as some thought, it will be time to pay the piper for the busted dreams.

#159 GIC rates on 10.27.21 at 10:59 pm

So we will see a return to 2006 4.25% 5 year GIC rates.