About time

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Last year we were hit with the worst global pandemic in a 100 years. As this new coronavirus spread around the world, the global economy was ground to a halt, resulting in unprecedented job losses and economic carnage.

Governments in turn responded by providing financial assistance to companies and individuals hit hard by the economic downturn and lockdowns. Here in Canada, many of these financial programs are set to expire this weekend so many were waiting with bated breath on whether these programs would be extended.

Today I’ll review the announcement from the federal government over changes to these programs and provide my take.

A bit of history first.

When Covid-19 first hit the Federal government responded by introducing the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), which paid those impacted by Covid-19 and the economic downtown $2,000/month. To be eligible for this benefit you had to be a Canadian resident, must have been employed with employment income of at least $5,000 in the 12 months prior and you had to have lost your job due to reasons related to Covid-19.

About a year ago the Feds changed CERB to the Canadian Recovery Benefit (CRB) and lowered the monthly amount to $1,200/month.

This is set to expire this weekend and on Thursday the federal government announced that it’s replacing the CRB and other programs, like the rent and wage subsidy for businesses, with more targeted programs.

For example, the CRB changes to the Hardest-Hit Business Recovery Program, and the rent and wage subsidy for businesses changes to the Tourism and Hospitality Recovery Program. Both of these new programs will be focused just on the hardest hit sectors like hospitality, so the costs of these programs is coming down significantly. To fiscal hawks like us, we applaud these changes and frankly it’s about time!

Don’t get us wrong, we urgently needed these programs when Covid first hit but now is the time to start winding them down.

First, and most importantly, we’ve recovered 100% of all the job losses from the Covid-19 downturn as a result of the very strong job growth. Since last May the Canadian economy has added 3 million jobs driving the unemployment rate from 13% to 6.9% currently. This alone could be sufficient reason to begin winding down these emergency programs.

Moreover, job vacancies in Canada are at their highest levels in years. Currently, there are 731,000 job vacancies and in speaking with many business owners, they are having a hell of a time filling job openings, which I believe is partly due to these ongoing government programs. It’s real simple. If the government is handing out these funds, then some (not all as many Canadians have been impacted by this terrible event) are going to abuse it and continue to live off it until it’s cut-off.

Canadian Employment is Back at Pre-Covid Levels

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Second, as a result of this extraordinary financial support provided by the government, we’ve racked up the biggest deficits in history and have nearly doubled the Federal government debt over the last two years (our debt stands at $1.1 trillion, up from $700 billion last February).

So far, the Federal government has spent a jaw-dropping $300 billion on these support programs. This massive increase in government spending has blown a monster hole in our balance sheet. Last year we recorded a deficit of $354 billion (five times larger than the previous high set during the financial crisis), and is projected to be up another $157 billion this year. Oh boy, that’s a lot of red ink that one day will have to be paid back.

Canadian Federal Government Yearly Fiscal Balance

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Finally, after a slow and disjointed vaccine rollout, the government (feds and provincial) picked up their socks and have delivered pretty good results with 72% of our population fully vaccinated and 82% with one dose for those 12 and older.

As a result (since science works) our numbers are dropping so we’re slowly getting control of the pandemic and returning to normal. Emphasis on slowly. As this happens we see a lot of pent up demand driving the economy higher, which if correct, should result in continued job growth and therefore less of a need for these programs.

In my view the government made the right call to pull back on these emergency programs and now just target the particularly hard-hit sectors like hospitality. It’s time to put on our big boy/girl pants on and ween ourselves off these very expensive programs.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

95 comments ↓

#1 Flop… on 10.23.21 at 10:56 am

Rhino, a restaurant advertising a dishwasher job for 25 bucks an hour , or 50k salary a year has been making the news rounds in Vancouver.

The position has been filled apparently.

Bummer, I could have read this blog in the morning and then rinsed my sins each afternoon…

M47BC

#2 Andrewski on 10.23.21 at 11:03 am

Great analysis Ryan, weaning like a puppy on it’s Mom’s teat, there comes a time to take care of feeding yourself.

#3 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 11:04 am

@DOLCE can u translate. What is going on over there?!

https://www-iltempo-it.translate.goog/attualita/2021/10/21/news/rapporto-iss-morti-covid-malattie-patologie-come-influenza-pandemia-disastro-mortalita-bechis-29134543/?_x_tr_sl=pt&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=nui
“Big mess in the report on deaths. For the ISS most of the deaths were not caused by Covid
…So of the 130,468 of the register official statistics at the moment of the preparation of the new rapport only 3,783 would be due to the potnza of the virus itself

————-
Weekend perspective, in a declining Former First World Country. Life in Kanada. What’s going on in in Sask? They just opened the CV Detention Camps. Troops being sent in per T2.

.Justin Trudeau @JustinTrudeau Update: We’re deploying @CanadianForces
members to Saskatchewan. As we work to finish the fight against COVID-19, we’re going to make sure people across the country have the support they need to stay safe. Saskatchewanians, we’ve got your back.

— Ohh that ‘stupid leaked email’ this blog gave print to. Is it Q3 already?

“- Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.”

——-
Almost back to normal guys!!!

“In addition to a COVID Enforcement Team and a on-line form or phone number to report on fellow citizens, the government is also setting up a secure isolation site for those deemed needing to be isolated by a medical health officer.
“Public Health Inspectors and police, once the Medical Health Officer has signed a form for secure isolation, will be involved in assisting and transporting and moving people into the secure isolation site.”
Secure isolation would apply to those who are told they need to isolate due to COVID-19 but refuse to. It is not in any relation to vaccination status.
This site, expected to be ready in the next three weeks, is going to be located at the Saskatchewan Hospital in North Battleford.
They refer to those sent to the secure isolation site as clients, not detainees. However they will be there under a detention order.”

#4 the Jaguar on 10.23.21 at 11:08 am

A peep told me earlier this week that the CRA is hiring contract positions starting $60m with benefits, can work from home to go after those who took CERB $$ they were not entitled to receive. Don’t know if that’s true, but I hope so… There is assistance to those in need which is one thing, but there is also theft and that should be punished.

Batten down those hatches coastal BC! We have rain today in Calgary, but only 10-15 mm, only for one day and it’s quite welcome. The sun and warmer weather returns tomorrow. Every part of this country has its ‘weather challenges’.

#5 Paddy on 10.23.21 at 11:08 am

It’s been said many times, but don’t be surprised when a system gets abused that is ripe for abuse from the beginning. Of course people aren’t going to return to work if there is handouts. Mr. Socks will realize what he’s done when they start to raise taxes on everyone….and targeting the wealthy/big corps will help but it’s peanuts compared to the size of the debt.

#6 SW on 10.23.21 at 11:10 am

The vaccine rollout in my area wasn’t “slow and disjointed”. It happened in a very organised fashion, with the most vulnerable first.

Can’t fault the Federal government – they ordered more vaccinations than can be counted on the fingers (and some of the toes) of all Canadians.

The Ontario Conservatives, after doing many wrong and stupid things, did pull themselves together.

For once we worked together, and I’m proud to be Canadian.

#7 Dr V on 10.23.21 at 11:21 am

In the graph, “(in bls)” should be “(in mls)” or you drop the zeros from the numbers?

#8 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 11:29 am

Mike From Montreal and New Math?

Take example VAB. Its true calendar YTD total return is:

26.80 < 25.51 + 0.49 = 26.00 or -3.0% return with -98.2% real yield…yes you've spent a dollar to get pennies back since January 2021.

*************************
What kind of math is that? Completely unintelligible. The more I look at it the weirder it is; 98.2% real yield?

Even if the equation made any sense what are the each of the numbers representing?

#9 Flop… on 10.23.21 at 11:38 am

As Jack Nicholson once said.

You want the abuse?

You can’t handle the abuse…

M47BC

/////////////////////////////////////////

“Ralph Lauren pockets $6.4m in JobKeeper
The local arm of global designer giant — backed by one of the richest men on the planet — snared $6.4m in JobKeeper while lifting revenue.

( I guess in this case Jobkeeper is Australia’s equivalent of Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy or CEWS)”
—————————————————

“Australia’s tax commissioner is facing an investigation from a powerful parliamentary committee after refusing to hand over companies’ wage subsidy details.

Chris Jordan has been referred to the Senate’s privileges committee over rejecting an upper house order to reveal which companies turning over more than $10 million received JobKeeper payments.

The privileges committee has the power to fine or jail the tax commissioner if he is found in contempt of parliament.

Independent senator Rex Patrick has been campaigning for more transparency around the $90 billion scheme.
The motion to refer Mr Jordan passed the Senate 25 votes to 21 on Tuesday evening.

The ATO boss had refused to release the information because he believed it was not in the public interest to abandon taxpayer confidentiality.”

#10 Taco Devil on 10.23.21 at 11:39 am

#23 Dolce Vita on 10.22.21 at 1:53 pm
You must be excited Canada that you can now travel without a reason.

I’d be a bit HESITANT if I were you w.r.t. Europe.

Recall you seem to “virus peak” about 1 to 1.5 months after Europe:

https://i.imgur.com/yeH26J6.png

You all seem to like to land in either London, Frankfurt or Amsterdam:

https://i.imgur.com/hVP2Jdl.png

Not just poor UK, Deutschland and The Netherlands on the upswing other countries as well…

Poor Austria 8.9M souls with about as many cases as all of Italia 60M:

https://kurier.at/coronavirus

It’s not just them (left out the Nordics since why would a Cdn go to a Nordic country this time of year?):

https://i.imgur.com/e1qUU9E.png

So far, touch wood, safe countries:

Spain, Portugal, France * & Italia **.

I have to ask how long will that last even with the vax? Stats out of the UK today by ZOE (4.7M subscribers, real time data):

https://i.imgur.com/N4kjX6b.png

and this on efficacy:

https://i.imgur.com/RKadFHn.png

——————-

I love you all, hope Canada is spared but not holding my breath yet.

— A heads up, FWIW.

* Land there.
** Come visit Italia (the coffee & foods not bad), we can always use your cash Canada.

——————-

What are you saying with this exactly Dolce Vita?

It sounds concerning…like you’re outlining a threat we should be on the lookout for.

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 10.23.21 at 11:44 am

I think we need to keep the mask mandates in place and only allow fully vaccinated people in restaurant and mass events. We don’t want to end up like UK, where they relied only on vaccines and covid is spreading again. Its right that Hospitality Tourism industries and similar need to be supported through the winter.

#12 Sail Away on 10.23.21 at 11:45 am

#1 Flop… on 10.23.21 at 10:56 am

I could have read this blog in the morning and then rinsed my sins each afternoon…

——–

My dogs’ sins fertilize Ponzie’s front lawn each morning.

#13 Slava on 10.23.21 at 11:47 am

CRB was never changed to 1200/m.

#14 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 11:51 am

Getting Back to the Consumer Price Index…

StatsCan could probably do itself and us all a huge favor if it came out with some different CPI numbers such as:

The CPI for a “typical” senior living in apartment in big City

For typical senior living in paid for owned house in i) big City, ii) small town

For typical working age family of four and renting versus owning.

There are a many categories to look at but they have the baskets and could weight it different for say six 6 tor ten different situations.

That could maybe provide various numbers that individuals that could relate to better?

#15 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 12:00 pm

Approximately, what is the cost of living in Toronto versus Edmonton versus Bunnypatch?

Stats Can has different CPI by census region. Therefore they know the prices of everything by geography.

But I have looked in vain several times starting many many years ago for a Stats Can figure that simply shows the relative cost of living in different Cities. Say Toronto is defined as 100, is Edmonton 85% of that?

Surely someone has taken the data and done this a few times. Lots of people look at moving from big cities to smaller places, but I have not seen simple easy to compare data on the cost of living.

Perhaps others have seen this data? It would be hard for most researchers to do this except I think Stats Can would have the data to do it easily.

And I guess it could be done pre-income tax and after tax. I believe CPI already accounts for all sales taxes and even municipal property taxes (the later in the cost of shelter)

#16 Linda on 10.23.21 at 12:07 pm

The CERB program spawned debate in our household. While there was no doubt that the government did the right thing by providing income support to Canadians whose income had been impacted as a result of public health measures it was felt that the measures could have been implemented in a much more sensible way. For instance, the deduction of income tax at source. If the government already had the names, addresses & SIN numbers of the potential beneficiaries, how difficult would it have been to deduct income tax? EI does. The ‘pass’ for paying back benefits for all those who received CERB ‘in error’ – well if those folks were able to read about how to apply for CERB, seems to me their ability to read ‘the rules’ should have worked as well. While I concede the government should have put the word NET income in big letters that confusion was straightened out early on. I for one was rather stunned that 15-17 year olds living at home were given the exact same amount of $ as anyone living on their own. The irony that many CERB recipients were receiving more than maximum CPP was also not lost on me. The average CPP payment is around $700 per month as few qualify for or receive the maximum. Throw in OAS & your average pensioner gets between $1,400 to $1,500 per month of taxable income. Yet CERB support indicated our government felt $2K per month was the minimum folks could live on. There was of course that ‘one time payment’ of $300 – $500 for those receiving GIS as I understand it but seriously? I guess our government thought the old folks were used to living on less & thus didn’t need more.

One thing CERB did do was expose the fact that many who received it had more take home income than they were receiving from working full time. Past time to jump those minimum wages to match current economic reality. My partner makes that point that if a business is only viable if those who work there are paid so little that they are in effect the reason the business can exist in the first place then the model is flawed. The price of a ‘bargain’ should not mean virtual economic slavery. My take is that if the wages paid are so low that government support provides ‘more’ then we truly need to goose the minimum wage by more than a few cents per hour. What incentive is there to work when staying at home nets you more? None & the difficulty many employers are having in attracting workers is the result of that reality. CERB being cut off may force folks to resume working despite poor wages, but it will do nothing to correct the growing gap between those who have & those who have not.

#17 sorry_surrey on 10.23.21 at 12:09 pm

Ryan,

What you are saying seems intuitive and reasonable when considered from a zoomed out perspective.

I realize individual stories don’t matter as much when we are trying to draw policy or generalized conclusions about national events. Nonetheless, allow me to give you a report from the trenches:

I own a small wholesale business with 12 employees and we never laid off any employees during pandemic.
Our sales have taken a 30% haircut on average. This month (OCT) I will end about 50% below 2019 level.

The other part of the story is that due to strain on supply chains (read as expensive input costs) our margins have shrunk considerably so there is no linear profitability relationship between ‘old sales’ and ‘new sales’ of this year.

I am not complaining that they will take away our wage subsidy (never received more than 10-12% of what we pay out), but I will tell you we are neither as profitable nor as solid as we were pre-pandemic. Much worse actually that mid-pandemic because of squeezed margins.

Again, this is just 1 single story so it tells nothing about (nor is it intended to) state of the economy but things are never as simple as using “jobs-recovered” metric and saying all is well.

Appreciate all your work & all the wisdom you share in a most pro-bono way. You guys are all to be thanked for your selfless service on this blog.

#18 mms on 10.23.21 at 12:11 pm

Enough with business welfare. Time to let the free market decide which of these businesses should survive.

#19 Flop… on 10.23.21 at 12:25 pm

#15 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 12:00 pm
Approximately, what is the cost of living in Toronto versus Edmonton versus Bunnypatch?
Stats Can has different CPI by census region. Therefore they know the prices of everything by geography.
But I have looked in vain several times starting many many years ago for a Stats Can figure that simply shows the relative cost of living in different Cities. Say Toronto is defined as 100, is Edmonton 85% of that?
Surely someone has taken the data and done this a few times. Lots of people look at moving from big cities to smaller places, but I have not seen simple easy to compare data on the cost of living.
Perhaps others have seen this data? It would be hard for most researchers to do this except I think Stats Can would have the data to do it easily.
And I guess it could be done pre-income tax and after tax. I believe CPI already accounts for all sales taxes and even municipal property taxes (the later in the cost of shelter)

##########################

Here.

Click on link for more details.

Couldn’t find details for Bunnypatch…

M47BC
——————

Summary about cost of living in Edmonton, Canada:
* Family of four estimated monthly costs are 4,186.43C$ without rent (using our estimator).
* A single person estimated monthly costs are 1,187.73C$ without rent.
* Edmonton is 2.49% less expensive than Vancouver (without rent, see our cost of living index).
* Rent in Edmonton is, on average, 46.38% lower than in Vancouver.

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/

———————————————————-

Summary about cost of living in Toronto, Canada:
* Family of four estimated monthly costs are 4,451.96C$ without rent (using our estimator).
* A single person estimated monthly costs are 1,228.35C$ without rent.
* Toronto is 0.21% less expensive than Vancouver (without rent, see our cost of living index).
* Rent in Toronto is, on average, 8.53% lower than in Vancouver

#20 Vital Coed on 10.23.21 at 12:29 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 11:04 am
@DOLCE can u translate. What is going on over there?!

https://www-iltempo-it.translate.goog/attualita/2021/10/21/news/rapporto-iss-morti-covid-malattie-patologie-come-influenza-pandemia-disastro-mortalita-bechis-29134543/?_x_tr_sl=pt&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=nui
“Big mess in the report on deaths. For the ISS most of the deaths were not caused by Covid
…So of the 130,468 of the register official statistics at the moment of the preparation of the new rapport only 3,783 would be due to the potnza of the virus itself

——–

WHAT IS GOING ON HERE TurnerNation?

Has our terrible diet and inactivity resulted in us being so unhealthy that we couldn’t admit it and needed something novel to blame?

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.21 at 12:30 pm

#12 Sail Away on 10.23.21 at 11:45 am
#1 Flop… on 10.23.21 at 10:56 am

I could have read this blog in the morning and then rinsed my sins each afternoon…

——–

My dogs’ sins fertilize Ponzie’s front lawn each morning.
———————————-
Good timing.
I’m just starting a compost pile with all my leaves.
Apparently, urine helps with composting.
But if they crap on it, then we have a problem.

#22 None on 10.23.21 at 12:30 pm

If we will have to eventually pay this back what does this mean for putting money into RRSPs?

Is it worth holding some in a non registered account to put into RRSPs later if tax rates go up?

#23 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 12:43 pm

CPP fun facts and wealthy Seniors

At age 65 maximum CPP is $1175.83. For a couple that’s $28,220 per year for a couple. Fully indexed. Add old age pension of $635.26 times two times 12 = $15,246.

The total here is $43,366. Fully indexed. On top of any pension, employment or RRSP or other investment or business income.

But, yes, few people would qualify for the maximum CPP or close to it.

But, just to make a few heads explode, let’s think about who would qualify for maximum CPP.

That would be people who had good paid jobs for 39 years while working (CPP maxes on your 39 best years).

Who would that be? Well, a lot of them would be the better paid government workers (not the lowest paid government workers). Teachers, nurses, firemen, police and lots of supervisor manager jobs in the government. Others would be railroad and utility company workers.

Ironically (maddingly?) enough, most of those who have max CPP will also be people with pensions and probably some personal savings as well.

There are lots of struggling seniors out there. But also quite a few couples with pension income well past $100k for a couple. More than a few would be at the $150k level. See you in Hawaii! (Forget those cheapo all-inclusive Mexico trips)

#24 I’m stupid on 10.23.21 at 12:43 pm

CERB and programs like it around the globe has created the inflation we’re all seeing.

Cerb reminded me of when I was asked to do a focus group for woodbine casino. I was giving $300 to spend and told I could keep whatever I win. So I obviously went to the highest limit slot machine and bet the maximum to try to maximize my winnings. I lost it all in less than 5 mins but it was free money. Cerb is considered free money to some so people are just spending it as quickly as it’s coming.

#25 Jackaranda on 10.23.21 at 12:47 pm

It ain’t over for CERBsters. CERB ll is called the Lockdown Worker Benefit and will run to next May. Don’t count on a sudden jump back to low end service jobs. It’s $300 a week and sign up begins a week after this extension stops paying out.

#26 Dirty Dan on 10.23.21 at 12:59 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax). You are done here. – Garth

#27 mike from mtl on 10.23.21 at 12:59 pm

#16 Linda on 10.23.21 at 12:07 pm
..My partner makes that point that if a business is only viable if those who work there are paid so little that they are in effect the reason the business can exist in the first place then the model is flawed. The price of a ‘bargain’ should not mean virtual economic slavery.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Completely agreed.

Whilst the restaurant industry and by extension the entire foodservice on a good day is tough, it doesn’t have to be that way.

What other job stands on patronage subsidising wages? Even with a special tax code to boot! ‘Adult dancers’ maybe.

#28 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.21 at 1:23 pm

Slava “ CRB was never changed to 1200/m.”

From the CRA website “The Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) gives income support to employed and self-employed individuals who are directly affected by COVID-19 and are not entitled to Employment Insurance (EI) benefits. The CRB is administered by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA).

Depending on when you start applying for the CRB, you can either receive $1,000 ($900 after taxes withheld) or $600 ($540 after taxes withheld) for a 2-week period” – Ryan L

#29 Puddle jumper on 10.23.21 at 1:32 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 11:04 am

Seriously, does anyone read this guy’s nonsensical posts? Is it written in some foreign incantation from a universe where sentences begin with periods?

How about we give this blog a facelift and upgrade it with filters so we can weed out authors of posts we’d just rather not hear from?

It’s about time we collectively move into the new millennium …

#30 Denise on 10.23.21 at 1:41 pm

Dale Jackson, BNN, GIC’s do not pay 1%. You must think Canadians are all not informed. Obviously, you are trying to really understate real GIC rates out there. There are many places paying 2.3% to 2.65% currently. I have alot of 2.4% to 2.6% GIC’s just this year. In 2019, 3.5% to 3.75% GIC’s. All in RRSP’s, TFSA’s, RESP’s. There are many financial institutions besides the big 6 Canadian banks.

This is the problem these days, nobody thinks they should save anymore and expect 9%, 10%, 11% a year with big low taxes preferential treatment from the government. It is a disgrace, shameful what central banks, big financial corporations and governments are doing turning Canadians. They are turning them into a debt ridden, speculative bunch and destroying savings and work ethic.

#31 Dogman01 on 10.23.21 at 1:41 pm

#2 Steven Rowlandson on 10.22.21 at 12:36 pm
“Have we lost our way?”

Where it counts the western world lost it’s way long ago.
When the shepherd is a wolf the flock is only so much meat.

—————————————-

Our establishment lost it’s way; they view our society as their Fief to exploit.
Clearly our leaders look at what China can do with immense envy.

“The inner rot of all empires is very, very slow and quite insidious. The tipping point is up at the top: do the elites see the empire as a road to personal wealth? When they decide this, they go on an internal looting expedition, cutting their own taxes while increasing taxes on the lower classes. Rome did this, Spain did this and the UK did this. All empires do this.” – Niall Ferguson

The same Western political and business elites that built the China monster, because they wanted to destroy collective bargaining, pensions and wages of workers in their own countries, are now going on about how “we” need to combat the Chinese “menace”. There is no “we”. It is just our elite with their offshore accounts that are clamoring for something to be done, because the monster they helped create has decided to go their own way and is now a threat to the global fiefdom these wealthy titans thought they were in control of.

#32 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 1:49 pm

Thank you

To Flop for that cost of living web site. I have added it my favorites list. I’d like Stats Can to do this based on the basket weights they already have. It would be a value add to data they already have and give a rough idea.

But of course everyone’s mileage differs. We spend VASTLY different amounts on things like golf, other sports, alcohol, restaurants, travel, rent versus own. No one measure of cost of living will be precise to our own situations.

But it would be nice to see the difference across Canada just based on the fabled (albeit non-existent) average consumer which StatsCan already tracks the baskets for and they do it by City. They already report the INCREASE in cost of living by City, so why not just give the base number in dollars as well? It boggles the mind that they don’t (to my knowledge)

#33 Greg on 10.23.21 at 1:52 pm

Hey Jackaranda, enjoy spending your $300 a week pretty soon it will be worth less and less in value, just like all the liberal policies of this government, Treadeau, Freeland.

$2.50 a liter gas coming and everything up 60% to 100% in the next 12 to 18 months. It is coming, spend it quick man.

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 1:54 pm

“So far, the Federal government has spent a jaw-dropping $300 billion on these support programs. This massive increase in government spending has blown a monster hole in our balance sheet. Last year we recorded a deficit of $354 billion (five times larger than the previous high set during the financial crisis), and is projected to be up another $157 billion this year. Oh boy, that’s a lot of red ink that one day will have to be paid back.”

+++

NO ONE in govt cares because they are not financially liable for the BILLIONS WASTED.

Time to make their platinum plated pension plans directly linked to balanced budgets or deficits.

If the govt posts a debt for the year, that’s one year off your MP pension plan contributions.
Trudeau and the other rich couldnt care less about pensions. They dont need them.
But the average MP ?
Different story.
It might make the lickspittles in Govt that blindly vote which ever way the Whip demands them to …. to balk and refuse to join in the yearly deficit free for all.

#35 Paul on 10.23.21 at 1:57 pm

Jackaranda, I have cut my spending by 50% for decades now and socked away alot of money in my RRSPs, TFSAs, non-registered. CERB all you want.

I have retired at 50 since 2015. I am not working anymore paying for all your crap, my big dividends, bond interest and capital gains of $200,000 a year is doing that. I am not working smarter or harder, I stopped working period.

#36 Summertime on 10.23.21 at 1:59 pm

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1451733913961783299

Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.

How much was a cardboard particles wooden shack costing in Toronto these days? 1.8 mils? Right.

#37 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 2:00 pm

Businesses Should Pay More than the Market demands?

#16 Linda on 10.23.21 at 12:07 pm

“My partner makes that point that if a business is only viable if those who work there are paid so little that they are in effect the reason the business can exist in the first place then the model is flawed.”

********************
Well, we have a somewhat free economy.

Minimum wage has already been increased to $15 in much of Canada and I support that.

But many will say that’s still not enough.

It’s an economic fact that some businesses indeed cannot exist if they pay more than about minimum wage. No one is to blame. It’s just a result of what customers are willing to pay and a result of competition.

If there is a “flaw” it is with our entire sort of free market system. What is the alternative to fix that?

It’s a bit unfair to suggest that business owners in certain competitive sectors (say fast-food) should shut down if they can’t pay more than minimum wage. Who would that help?

Has your partner ran a competitive business and been responsible for taking in enough money to pay employees and all the other bills. If not, I am not sure his opinion carries much weight.

#38 Nonplused on 10.23.21 at 2:00 pm

“Oh boy, that’s a lot of red ink that one day will have to be paid back.”

Individual debts sometimes get paid back but collective debts never do. Corporations and governments manage their debts to the monthly (interest payments) not to the principle, just like people buying a car on payment.

Any attempt to curtail the deficit is an acknowledgement that the rate of borrowing is unsustainable and will lead to an inability to service the debt, it is not in any way a commitment to at some point begin reducing the absolute level of government debt. That number can only go one way.

Even when you examine something like the amount of mortgage debt held by Canadians, the number only goes up. It can only go up. This is despite the fact that presumably everyone eventually pays off their own personal mortgage. Personal debts can be paid off, but collective debts never are.

—————————————

“Second, as a result of this extraordinary financial support provided by the government, we’ve racked up the biggest deficits in history and have nearly doubled the Federal government debt over the last two years (our debt stands at $1.1 trillion, up from $700 billion last February).”

Technically, the government provided no support. Nor could they, as they have no money. Taxpayers and the banks (lenders in general) provided all the support. The banks did not do it for free. The long term cost of the “support” will be a multiple of the actual support. Sort of like a mortgage only you didn’t get anything durable like a house.

#39 SoggyShorts on 10.23.21 at 2:00 pm

About a year ago the Feds changed CERB to the Canadian Recovery Benefit (CRB) and lowered the monthly amount to $1,200/month. – Ryan
*******************
♦CERB was $2,000/Month
♦CRB was $900 every 2 weeks ($1,000 – $100 tax)
Which is the same as $2,000/Month
♦LWB(lockdown worker benefit) will be 300 per week

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 2:02 pm

Apparently naming a school Team “The Totems” is disrespectful.

“Welcoming figures” is a more accurate description.

But that doesn’t roll off the tongue so they opted for “Thunderbirds” instead.

Apologies to all Totems everywhere.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/10/22/surrey-semiamhoo-team-rename/

#41 Dolce Vita on 10.23.21 at 2:03 pm

#10 Taco Devil

Caution traveling Europe. Cases on the upswing in far too many countries. If you fly I’d land in France. Travel there, Portugal, Spain or Italia. Cases very low relative to the rest of Europe and not on the upswing, stable.

Not well reported by Cdn MSM and you know, they have enough else to occupy them. So it was a heads up for Cdns wanting to stretch their legs in Europe.

Other caution is Spain, Portugal, France & Italia surrounded by countries having problems, inevitable spill over at some point in the future.

True, vaxes working but also on the wane and there is the issue of Delta PLUS in the UK still not well understood (has been found in other countries as well since then incl. Italia that do a lot of testing and genomic sequencing, like the UK, Israel).

Hate to tell you this but USA, Canada: DON’T TEST, DON’T COUNT…

https://i.imgur.com/ES238GO.png

In fact Doc Campbell on YouTube today does not believe the Cdn and US case numbers due to their abysmally low test rates and their abysmal genomic test capabilities.

Also Italia testing skyrocketing. They never do that without good reason.

——————-

In other words wait and see. Still, your call.

And be watchful even Cdn and US data.

#42 Linda on 10.23.21 at 2:14 pm

#23 ‘Shawn’ – your numbers are correct, but the fact is that very few Canadians will qualify for full benefits via CPP. Funny how everyone focuses on folks receiving ‘the max’ in these examples. Seems to me that it lends an air of credibility to the concept that most seniors are rolling in $ & that those who actually struggle on less are a very small percentage of the total. I’d add your example doesn’t mention that maximum benefit is halved the moment one of the couple dies. Plus how likely is it that both members of the example couple will have worked/qualified for maximum benefits in the first place?

#43 Dolce Vita on 10.23.21 at 2:19 pm

Ryan:

Like most everyone else here, I agree time to put an end to the Gov handouts. Jobs back. Economy starting to come back (Retail Trade +2.1% yesterday, 9 of 11 subsectors up, EI collected -4.3%).

I know you are being PC by saying CERB etc. were necessary but few other countries, if any, received that much money whether personal or business.

Why Trudeau got re-elected I believe. The majority of Cdns may not like him but they sure do like the money he’s shoved down their throats during Covid.

Unprecedented gobs of cash in Canada by Govs Canada given to people, businesses.

Lots of cash or Demand +
Supply chain shortages

= PRICE INCREASES…golly gee, the Economists were correct after all.

…and Cdns ALL WONDER, bitch, whine and complain why Inflation is so high (e.g., double that in Italia)?

You DID IT TO YOURSELVES Canada. Starting to pay the piper even earlier than I thought.

——————-

Liberal
Forward. For Everyone.
[-4.4% forward]

#44 I’m stupid on 10.23.21 at 2:31 pm

#23 Shawn Allen

My in-laws are those people… I don’t think they get full Cpp because they retired at 55 and 57. 150k pension combined indexed up to 3%. It’s a sweet deal lots of good years to enjoy life without having to worry about paying the bills.

#45 SoggyShorts on 10.23.21 at 2:32 pm

#16 Linda on 10.23.21 at 12:07 pm
The average CPP payment is around $700 per month as few qualify for or receive the maximum. Throw in OAS & your average pensioner gets between $1,400 to $1,500 per month of taxable income. Yet CERB support indicated our government felt $2K per month was the minimum folks could live on. ..
I guess our government thought the old folks were used to living on less & thus didn’t need more.

*************************
Perhaps the government assumed that after 45 years in the workforce that the old folks have more than CPP and OAS. Like a house, or a pension, or savings.
———————————————-
#16 Linda on 10.23.21 at 12:07 pm
One thing CERB did do was expose the fact that many who received it had more take home income than they were receiving from working full time.
***************************
I heard this a lot, but is this even true?
$15 x 40h x 4w = $2,400/m or $2,035 after tax.
The CERB payments while not taxed in hand were taxable income, and after-tax come to $1,833

So, the minimum wage is actually 11% more than CERB was.

That might not be much higher, but let’s not continue the story that CERB paid more.

#46 Dolce Vita on 10.23.21 at 2:43 pm

#3 TurnerNation

Basically some Journalist bitching that last year Italians with numerous comorbidities (some had 4 to 5) got Covid, died and they called it Covid…in a nutshell.

Though he does not offer what the numbers ought to be. Also says he is not a scientist but he doesn’t trust them anyways.

I read he’s in a bitchy mood about all the mask wearing and Green Pass regimen here.

His diatribe, because one of the Health Ministry people could not answer a simple question about the deaths…hence and as usual, ZeroHedge style conspiracy theories abound.

————–

Well known last year, even made the US MSM when Orange Man was still Pres:

“Italian in a motor accident, ambulance to ICU, strokes, then has a heart attack there which kills him but found with Covid afterwards: thus, Covid to blame.”

So we may never know how many died specifically due to Covid in Italia, the exact number, suffice to say:

132,000 deaths

a large enough number that’s tough to fudge. Mid last year they changed their methodology to address the over counting.

REMEMBER, Italia was first to get hit by Covid in the West (3 PRC tourists that did not know they had it nor did their Gov let them know it even existed). PRC nor WHO = not a word about it.

Italia paid the price thanks to the PRC, WHO pretending no problemo until the cats out the bag.

The bag was Italia. The Cat was Covid.

#47 BillyBob on 10.23.21 at 2:50 pm

#6 SW on 10.23.21 at 11:10 am

Can’t fault the Federal government – they ordered more vaccinations than can be counted on the fingers (and some of the toes) of all Canadians.

================================================

What a blindly revisionist version of history. There is plenty to fault the federal government on. The original federal government plan to collaborate with CanSino fell apart which then mandated the desperate spraying of money with a fire hose at every and all external vax manufacturers to try and camouflage their incompetence. Get in bed with China – gee, what could go wrong?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/cansino-deal-canada-nrc-fifth-estate-1.6208241

“Government documents obtained by The Fifth Estate show that Canadian officials wasted months waiting for a proposed vaccine to arrive from China for further testing and spent millions upgrading a production facility that never made a single dose of COVID-19 vaccine. ”

I wonder if we’ll ever know how many people died while the Liberals dithered?

Then basically made up their own rules overriding the manufacturer instructions (ie increasing dose intervals from 3 weeks to 4 months, mixing types, etc). Clown show.

It’s great that there has been a somewhat positive outcome, but that’s in spite of the federal government not because of it. The only thing worse than making a huge mistake is making it over and over. Ignoring the utter mismanagement only invites future repeats. But I can see exactly why it happens when I read comments like the one quoted.

On a different note, I look forward to collecting CPP/OAS some day in a foreign country. Even the pittance will easily cover our monthly costs.

#48 Tarot Card CPP facts on 10.23.21 at 3:22 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Ryan

To Shawn Allen obviously you do not have a clue what your talking about in regards maximum CPP and defined benefit plans

All government employees technically do not receive CPP
Back in 1966 when the CPP was created all defined pension plans in Canada were merged with the CPP

So a federal public servant Pension plan and for that matter any person with defined pension plan includes the CPP in the calculation of defined benefit.
Many people do not understand this and rave on and on about a topic they have no clue.
But all defined benefit plans are the same!

As soon as you turn 65 your defined pension plan is reduced by an equivalent amount equal to the CPP at 65.
In conclusion at 65 after your pension is reduced and you add CPP your net take home is the same from 64 to 65 not counting OAS and not counting if you took CPP earlier then you loose in the calculation.
I should know I have done all the math, it’s called bridging.
But that to long of a discussion.

In conclusion if everyone without a pension planed if saved 10 to 15 percent of their income for 30 years into an RRSP you would have a far bigger pension then anyone with the same salary with a defined pension plan.

Like Garth says Canadians whine and whine but no one takes financial matters and saves money for the future they are hooked on house porn.

Have a great weekend everyone!

#49 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 3:33 pm

Restaurant Tipping…

Mike from Mtl said about restaurant low wages

“What other job stands on patronage subsidising wages? Even with a special tax code to boot! ‘Adult dancers’ maybe.”

***********************
Oh oh, this is a third rail topic. Anyone against tipping always gets bashed hard.

But I agree 100%. Tipping in restaurants should be phased out. And at all the other places that are starting to expect tips. Just charge the right price. And pay the right wages.

Imagine if you tried to slip a tip to employees at the the car dealer and or at your bank. You’d be banned and the employee fired for taking a tip / kickback for a better deal.

And restaurant wages are subject to minimums wage in most or all of Canada. Minimum wages went up a LOT in the past few years so why does the expected tip percentage not get reduced. It’s ridiculous. It’s no longer voluntary either it’s expected and virtually extortionary particularly in restaurants.

Most restaurants make under 10% sales on the bottom line. But the staff is supposed to get 20% of sales on top of wages? That can double their wages in some cases.

In this case lower (or zero) tips can make room for higher menu prices and higher wages. There should be other ways to motivate staff to give good service.

#50 AK on 10.23.21 at 3:34 pm

Worst pandemic in 100 years, and the average price of a house in the GTA has increased by 18.3% YOY. Go figure.

#51 Brian on 10.23.21 at 3:43 pm

#45 SoggyShorts on 10.23.21 at 2:32 pm
#16 Linda on 10.23.21 at 12:07 pm
One thing CERB did do was expose the fact that many who received it had more take home income than they were receiving from working full time.
***************************
I heard this a lot, but is this even true?
$15 x 40h x 4w = $2,400/m or $2,035 after tax.
The CERB payments while not taxed in hand were taxable income, and after-tax come to $1,833

So, the minimum wage is actually 11% more than CERB was.

That might not be much higher, but let’s not continue the story that CERB paid more.
———————————————
If you include the costs to get to work; increased insurance, fuel, veh maintenance, clothing, its a wash. Add childcare for some and they were far in the hole working.
CERB simply became a socially acceptable form of welfare, with zero incentive to get off of it.

#52 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 3:46 pm

#42 Linda on 10.23.21 at 2:14 pm

#23 ‘Shawn’ – your numbers are correct, but the fact is that very few Canadians will qualify for full benefits via CPP. Funny how everyone focuses on folks receiving ‘the max’ in these examples. Seems to me that it lends an air of credibility to the concept that most seniors are rolling in $ & that those who actually struggle on less are a very small percentage of the total. I’d add your example doesn’t mention that maximum benefit is halved the moment one of the couple dies. Plus how likely is it that both members of the example couple will have worked/qualified for maximum benefits in the first place?

****************

Fair comments, especially “Shawn your numbers are correct”.

I think I said not many get the max CPP. Those who do are a couple who had good jobs and probably ALSO had nice DB pensions. Life’s not fair that way.

I think the main narrative we hear is so much about is “seniors on a fixed income” and having a very hard go of it.

The reality is there are many of those but also not a few with $100k and even $150k in pensions. Yeah they are out there. No one said it was most seniors by any means.

Simple math is only half of seniors can earn above the median income for seniors and only 10% can be in the top 10%. The idea that most people are near the median is not true. It’s a wide dispersion. The bottom 20% exist but so do the top 20% (who tend to keep quiet about it).

#53 Dolce Vita on 10.23.21 at 4:15 pm

Enough Comments so now a good time to spring below without hijacking today’s Blog theme.

So yesterday (“Lost”, #105 Dolce Vita) I posted “Under 35 years” Assets, Debt & Net Worth key numbers along with some observations + Average, Median numbers. Waited a few days for the dust to settle after Garth’s “The Squeeze” where instead he got the squeeze intergenerationally so (the usual: Boomers evil, bad, to blame for everything whilst all others innocent).

Poor Garth.

Grain of Salt: these are pre-pandemic numbers.

Today it’s the turn of the:

———————–
Late Millennials 35-39 years + GenX less 55-56 years
[sorry StatCan does not report by generation ages, so smite them not me]
———————–

I would characterize this cohort vs. the Under 35 years as:

“OMG I have some grey hairs with +1 wrinkles, waddle taking form, spending too much on snake oil cosmetics/performance enhancing drugs and retirement looming large…QUICK.CASH.NEEDED by 28% of them”

…47% of this cohort have NO Employer retirement savings plan. 28% of this cohort throwing gobs of cash at the retirement funds issue.

So here are the numbers:

https://i.imgur.com/RXZG6rI.png

Disparity between Median and Average is LARGE vs. Under 35 years. *

GOOD News (ranges given are Median/Average numbers per person where applicable):

1. 16% are DEBT FREE. Nicely done older Mills and GenX!!!

2. Median net worth 10X that of Under 35, Average +20% that of Under 35. Again, RE accounts for most of their net worth. They are at the mortgage stage where payments are more principal than interest thus equity up.

3. 50% more vs. Under 35 have equity in a business, $20/$690K (large jump in $ vs Under 35 at $10K/$35K). Entrepreneurship et. al. alive and well in Canada, 22% of them or 1 in 5!!!

4. About the same % as Under 35 have an RRSP or TFSA, $ values up $35K/$87K vs. Under 35 $12.5K/$58K. Still on the low side for this cohort.

5. TWO QUICK CASH strategies by a few: Mr. Market 17% of them or Other RE 11% of them. All went WHOLE HOG in on this, Mutual Funds + Stocks = $200K/$1.1M (most of that Mutuals as they still a have deep mistrust of picking stocks on their own, willing to pay high MERs to have someone else do it for them) and Other RE = $672K/$1M (Other as in a 2nd property or more). 1.5 MILLION people doing this.

6. 71% own their own homes (vs. 41% Under 35) and the equity is a modest $225K/330K.

7. No TREE HUGGERS, LOW CARBON FOOTPRINT HERE, 85% own a vehicle (vs. 69% Under 35) and it ain’t a Tesla: $9K/$13K in value (push, pull or drag).

————

BAD, Mixed News:

1. Stock/Mutual Fund holders CLUELESS at sticking a chunk of that money in a TFSA. Seems few understand this when comparing the $ values.

2. 54% have a mortgage on their principal residence, Equity vs. Mortgage Amount: Median = $225K vs. $136K, Average = $323K vs. $167K. AND 17% have paid off their mortgage (= 71% – 54%)!!! Jives with 16% being debt free. Good and bad here.

3. Bank deposit account numbers $1.6K/$6.6K…hard to say but looks like Median people not much padding to weather an economic downturn with Average people not that much better in shape, still they have 4X as much cash on hand.

4. BIG disparity equity in a business $20/$690K. A few doing very well, the majority not so good. Still 1 in 5 Cdns, so good on them I say.

WTF Dept:

1. 5% or 306,000 Cdns have no bank deposit account (mattress, home safe, offshore bank account or living free range incognito outdoors ???). Who knows but that’s a lot of people.
—————-

OVERALL this cohort doing PRETTY GOOD but 28% of them are panicking??? about retirement with huge money in Mr. Market and Other RE.

You have your work cut out for you Garth convincing Cdns to top off their TFSAs and put investments there along with low MER ETFs not Mutual Funds. Good luck to you My Liege on this.

We’ll see how the Boomers (my cohort) are doing tomorrow or when I get around to it.

——————————

* When Median << Average, there is skew in the data:
https://i.imgur.com/Bgh5UJt.png

We know that from the CRA tax brackets where about 2/3 of Cdns are in the $46K or lower tax bracket:
https://i.imgur.com/RsOBl1z.png

A large difference in Median vs. Average Net Worth the result for this cohort: $135K vs. $259K as in 91% more.

There is an argument here for HAVE and HAVE NOTS within this cohort on its own merit let alone vs. the Boomers to blame. In context vs. the World, pretty RICH BUNCH I'd say.

Clear lower tax bracket people being left behind ($45,916 or less tax bracket & the largest group numerically of this cohort 48% of them).

If there is a RE correction, a bad one like in the 80s that lasted near a decade…many, many in this cohort will have retirement funding problems.

Above data sliced and diced from:

"Assets and debts held by economic family type, by age group, Canada, provinces and selected census metropolitan areas, Survey of Financial Security (x 1,000,000)"

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110001601

#54 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.21 at 4:47 pm

AK “ Worst pandemic in 100 years, and the average price of a house in the GTA has increased by 18.3% YOY. Go figure.”

Agreed. It’s nuts! It was the big drop in interest rates that largely drove the increase. But rates only have one way to go and that’s up. So this should take some of the air of the balloon. – Ryan L

#55 Dolce Vita on 10.23.21 at 4:48 pm

#51 Shawn Allen

Maybe tomorrow I’ll let you know if you are correct in your assertions about the Boomers (RE: Avg, Median Assets, Debt and Net Worth).

Meanwhile, peruse this:

https://i.imgur.com/llcpyfp.png

Conditional formatting applied when there are 50K people or more in a tax bracket/age group.

#56 Linda on 10.23.21 at 4:50 pm

#50 ‘Brian’ – the costs associated with working for a living are rarely recognized when folks are doing income calculations. It adds up to a surprising amount even if child care costs aren’t part of the equation. I remember working with one woman whose net take home pay pretty much was used to pay the child care costs. Her rationale for working was 1) it kept her job skills up to date; 2) she was at least paying into CPP plus the workplace pension plan, so working was a way of securing retirement income. Plus our employer had health care benefits so medical costs were minimized, though employees of course had deductions taken off their pay for said benefits.

Lovely lady who never made it to retirement age. Taken by cancer in her 50’s.

#57 Dirty Dan on 10.23.21 at 4:51 pm

BANNED

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.21 at 5:16 pm

#134 Dragonfly 58 on 10.23.21 at 11:33 am
Dharma Bum, I don’t think you have the Model T story right in your mind.
The excitement and marvel stage of the automobile was several years before the introduction of the Model T. In fact Ford produced a number of quite sucessfull models of cars before the introduction of the “T” in 1909. And many other manufacturers prodeced cars far more advanced than the Model T.
——————
You got that one right.
Ford and Musk really did not invent anything. they were/are gifted salesmen.
Ford did not sell the most affordable car. He sold “Freedom” to the masses, to go anywhere. And he gave us the urban sprawl.
Musk is not selling EVs he’s selling Class Status.
And the KEG did not invent the steak.
They just sell the sizzle not the steak.
Is Coke really better than Pepsi?
Coke hired Santa to sell their carbonated drink.
And I could go on and on.
It’s all about advertising, and no one does it better than the Yankees.

#59 Linda on 10.23.21 at 5:18 pm

#45 ‘Soggy’ – keep in mind that minimum wage in Canada is not a universal $15 per hour. It currently ranges from $11.75 an hour (Nfld) to $16 per hour (Nunavut). Some provinces have a student rate which can be as much as $2 per hour less than the provincial standard. So your figures would have to be calculated per province/territory & be adjusted for workers who are paid less due to being students or working less than a certain number of hours per week per employer. That is the other loophole as i understand it – employees working less than a certain number of hours per week can be paid a lower minimum wage. So while a worker might be working 40 or more hours per week, they are not working all 40 of those hours for the same employer.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.21 at 5:42 pm

About the 300 billion.
Unfortunately, there are no financial models to calculate if it was worth it or not.
What woul have happened if we had just “let it rip”.
One thing is for sure, the human toll would have been much higher, and the health system would probably have collapsed.
What price human life? What price keeping the country functioning?
Anybody know?
Only history will tell, I hope.

#61 cuke and tomato picker on 10.23.21 at 6:04 pm

Interesting I met a person who was walking their dog very early on the Sidney B.C. waterfront walk early this morning who said ” I have to go back to work now that CERB is over” a short time later I heard a person talking to the assistant manager of Shoppers Drug Mart about
a job. So it appears that as CERB/CRB ends people will go back to work.

#62 Pricedoutmillenial on 10.23.21 at 6:06 pm

#SoggyShorts

Thanks for your insights on IEF yesterday. Yep. It totally makes sense.

#63 Penny Henny on 10.23.21 at 6:35 pm

#29 Puddle jumper on 10.23.21 at 1:32 pm
#3 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 11:04 am

Seriously, does anyone read this guy’s nonsensical posts? Is it written in some foreign incantation from a universe where sentences begin with periods?

How about we give this blog a facelift and upgrade it with filters so we can weed out authors of posts we’d just rather not hear from?

It’s about time we collectively move into the new millennium …
////////////////

Get lost poodle jumper.

#64 Wrk.dover on 10.23.21 at 6:38 pm

#47 BillyBob on 10.23.21 at 2:50 pm

I look forward to collecting CPP/OAS some day in a foreign country.
____________________________

I know I don’t owe you a favor but, I’ll let you know; the requirement to collect OAS is to be resident!

And all of that overseas tax free work you do? My CPP has CPI’d to a shade over a hundred bucks.

Good luck with your own retirement income, Sport.

#65 Wrk.dover on 10.23.21 at 6:42 pm

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.21 at 5:42 pm
About the 300 billion.
Unfortunately, there are no financial models to calculate if it was worth it or not.
_________________________

No home invasions in my municipality.

Whew!

#66 Grunt on 10.23.21 at 6:46 pm

Temporary fuel surcharge on non-renewables. Reduce carbon emissions while paying down the deficit. Transportation can pass on cost to customer base. As before.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 6:46 pm

@#58 Ponzie’s propaganda predictions
“It’s all about advertising, and no one does it better than the Yankees.”

+++
Hell Ford just sold cars.
Herr Hitler was pretty good at convincing an entire country to fight the world a second time.

As far as CERB being “up to history to decide” …
Nah.
If you pay people to stay home….they’ll stay home.
It doesnt take a V2 Rocket Scientist to figure that out.
Hundreds of thousands of jobs are begging for workers that have disappeared.
Why work when Debt Daddy Trudeau is willing to pay your lazy ass to sit and surf the net.
Obscene debt is obscene debt.

It’s gonna be tons of fun dragging the little darlings back to reality with shitty job reviews and firings.

#68 Haas Say Yhoo on 10.23.21 at 7:00 pm

#58 Neither did Bill Gates. Micro Soft (it was not called that then) was developed by a Canadian bought for less than $3,000. Paul Alan supplied the money and away we go.

#69 Nonplused on 10.23.21 at 7:04 pm

#49 Shawn Allen on 10.23.21 at 3:33 pm

The concept of tipping converts, at least partially, the wait staff from employees of the restaurant to employees of the guests. You tip the wait staff in response to service above and beyond what the restaurant is paying them to do.

Without tipping, the wait staff is not motivated to do anything above and beyond the minimum service level required without getting fired. It’s not good for the business, and it is not good for the customers.

But the question remains why tipped staff need minimum wage laws since that is not how they get paid. Traditionally they have been excepted.

#70 Dogman01 on 10.23.21 at 7:04 pm

#62 Pricedoutmillenial on 10.23.21 at 6:06 pm
#SoggyShorts
Thanks for your insights on IEF yesterday. Yep. It totally makes sense.

——————————–
If I follow the conversation right ZTL (BMO ETF on Canadian Exchanges) was an effective tool for “balance”. When Equities were going down this was going up. Good place IMO for your equity plunge protection.

#71 Nonplused on 10.23.21 at 7:09 pm

#66 Grunt on 10.23.21 at 6:46 pm

“Temporary fuel surcharge on non-renewables. Reduce carbon emissions while paying down the deficit. Transportation can pass on cost to customer base. As before.”

You are imagining a pool of money just waiting to be tapped where there is none.

There is no money available to pay down the debt anywhere. If there had been, there would have been no need to borrow. All the money out there is already spoken for. It does things like provide food and housing. And Play Stations. There is no way to extract more money from the economy without there being less of those things that people can afford.

#72 Faron on 10.23.21 at 7:11 pm

#112 KLNR on 10.22.21 at 10:55 pm

@#87 Fool on 10.22.21 at 6:43 pm
#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 6:04 pm

StatsCan bends to the Libs ideologic whims…

lol, guessing everything is a conspiracy theory with you.
must take a lot of work being that paranoid.

Seems that verifiable, measurable, quantifiable facts (i.e. statistics collected by the non-partisan Canadian federal agency) are becoming associated with liberals… Kind of amazing. I love self-own’s like Fool’s.

#73 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 7:12 pm

Life in Kanada: an immigrant’s take – nailed it.
Seen elsewhere. Life in a Former First World Country.

https://impunityobserver.com/2021/10/22/my-journey-marxist-in-nicaragua-classical-liberal-canada/
My Journey from Marxist in Nicaragua to Classical Liberal in Canada
Canada has changed immensely since I arrived…
We are more susceptible to fear and uncertainty. The expansion of the welfare state has made us more entitled and more risk-averse. We seem to be more accepting of government intrusion in our lives, we take our liberties and freedoms for granted, and we have become less demanding of quality representation in governments. The Canada of 40 years ago hardly exists.

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A reminder there is no “re-opening plan” just vague comments – as they fire more nurses. 2022-23.
Just wait till Flu season, and the hospitals are overwhelmed as the are most years.
This type of power is not going away.

https://novascotia.ca/reopening-plan/phase-five/
State of emergency declared
‘Plan phases are based on ongoing progress of vaccination rates and improvements of public health and healthcare indicators.”

———-

Sigh – from Aug.

#24 TurnerNation on 08.28.21 at 1:06 pm
Things which have the permanency in Kanada:
1. Fictional ‘State of Emergency’.
2. Flags at half mast
3. CV Rules. Always the rules Comrade

#74 Faron on 10.23.21 at 7:15 pm

#12 Sail Away on 10.23.21 at 11:45 am

My dogs’ sins fertilize Ponzie’s front lawn each morning.

LOL. Thanks Rev. Lovejoy. If expelling waste is a sin to you, the guilt you take on each day must be a terrible burden. Must be tough up there on the moral high road.

#75 Quintilian on 10.23.21 at 7:15 pm

“It’s gonna be tons of fun dragging the little darlings back to reality with shitty job reviews and firings.”

Hey, Crowded, why don’t you take one of those jobs, and provide the leadership you elders with your virtues, ethic, and wisdom are supposed to possess.

We are busy day trading, and trying to fix the social cancers your generation is leaving us.

#76 Faron on 10.23.21 at 7:23 pm

Finally, the weather. Record breaking low forecast to approach western North America overnight tonight. Min. pressure may hit 945 mb which is more typical of a Bering Sea storm. Record for a landfalling storm in our region is 955 mb. Hurricane wind warnings issued for offshore waters with strength roughly equivalent to a Cat. 3 hurricane. Fortunately, the low is forecast to bottom well offshore then gradually fill as it makes its way inland. To the south, California forecast to get more than 250 mm of rain out of this thing. Here on the island, over the next 10 days more than 1000 mm are forecast. Totals will be higher in the SW facing valleys. All of this water travelled the full breadth of the Pacific Ocean to get to the west coast making this the wettest part of the Pacific Rim north of the Equator.

Have a good weekend all. Back to the bathroom renovation.

#77 WTF on 10.23.21 at 7:54 pm

#48 “So a federal public servant Pension plan and for that matter any person with defined pension plan includes the CPP in the calculation of defined benefit.
Many people do not understand this and rave on and on about a topic they have no clue.
But all defined benefit plans are the same!”
—————————————————————-
You may be correct regarding Government DB and CPP inclusion, benefit/ supplement till 65 YO.
You are not correct stating ALL DB plans are the same.

I have a DB plan from a federally regulated industry. It has no tie to CPP. I draw my DB pension and then apply for CPP when I choose, which is additional to my DB monthly payout. No bridging.

————————————————————–
“As soon as you turn 65 your defined pension plan is reduced by an equivalent amount equal to the CPP at 65.”
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Also incorrect, My Wife is retiring in about 60 days and we are perusing the options, She is in a Municipal plan and does have bridging till 65, Her monthly bridge amount is $400 which ends at 65 yo. Her CPP is estimated to be double that $800. (over 40 yrs working)

It would appear there is more than one size fits all regarding pensions

Then there is the CPP drop out calculations………..

http://www.drpensions.ca/dr-pensions-faq.html

#78 BillyBob on 10.23.21 at 8:18 pm

#64 Wrk.dover on 10.23.21 at 6:38 pm
#47 BillyBob on 10.23.21 at 2:50 pm

I look forward to collecting CPP/OAS some day in a foreign country.
____________________________

I know I don’t owe you a favor but, I’ll let you know; the requirement to collect OAS is to be resident!

And all of that overseas tax free work you do? My CPP has CPI’d to a shade over a hundred bucks.

Good luck with your own retirement income, Sport.

====================================================

hahaha! “Sport?” I freely admit I have no idea how CPP or OAS or any government handouts work, have never considered them in my financial planning as even at max they’re token numbers. Always wanted a bit better lifestyle than cat food in retirement. I just want the pittance for the little grin of getting a Government of Canada payment every month when not in Canada. The amount is irrelevant. Still many years away, alas.

Retirement income? You’re gonna have to try harder than that for a dig. Work for some years now has been for enjoyment, not financial necessity. Mortgage-free place in the capital city of a beautiful country with a beautiful partner to share it with. I’ll try and survive lol.

Try not to get run over by the motorized scooters on Beacon Ave, Chief!

#79 The joy of steerage on 10.23.21 at 8:27 pm

#74 Faron on 10.23.21 at 7:15 pm
#12 Sail Away on 10.23.21 at 11:45 am

My dogs’ sins fertilize Ponzie’s front lawn each morning.

LOL. Thanks Rev. Lovejoy. If expelling waste is a sin to you, the guilt you take on each day must be a terrible burden. Must be tough up there on the moral high road.

You all seem to spew it daily….

#80 Tony on 10.23.21 at 8:50 pm

Re: #24 I’m stupid on 10.23.21 at 12:43 pm
CERB and programs like it around the globe has created the inflation we’re all seeing.

The only inflation was American inflation as people who didn’t need money got money even newborn babies as long as you made under half a million dollars a year. Since commodities are based on the U.S. dollar this caused the worldwide inflation we see today. Don’t believe the crap you read because this is the real reason for worldwide inflation. All the inflation came out of America but nowhere else.

#81 Tarot Card on 10.23.21 at 9:25 pm

To WTF
Thanks for commenting
It’s hard to argue if you know the facts
But I would reread your wife’s pension statement

Anyway if it’s true I take back my words. And do appreciate additional insights.

if you look up the meaning of bridging in all DBP
It’s the same thing, a bridging is received until 65 when other pension plans kick into effect.

Perhaps your plan is different and without the facts you have I would have to agree with you

Cheers have a great weekend

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 9:43 pm

My elderly wizdumb

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2021/10/23/canada-recovery-benefit/

880,000 are due to be cut off CERB tomorrow night.

How much ya wanna bet there will be a huge wave of job applicants in about 2 weeks
Because the financially illiterati aka the “pay cheque to pay cheque” cohort realize ….
I dont have any money?
“I gotta go back to work….the holiday is over.”

#83 Taco Devil on 10.23.21 at 9:51 pm

#41 Dolce Vita

Nice Tarantella you’re dancing around the real message.

Green passes and passports aren’t only a permission for travellers to travel Dolce Vita. They are also a permission for the variants to hitch a ride. That really what you were getting at.

#84 Bloor West on 10.23.21 at 10:01 pm

Retail fronts looking quite wounded on Bloor, west of Spadina.

Now that most of these businesses loaded up on maximum debt to survive, even with the 10K in loan forgiveness, time will come to start paying the piper.

I read that the true impact of this thing will be felt after the holidays, as of January 2022. This is when crunch time will hit.

However, with the shortages and supply issues and only the big chains getting supply due to their priority status and guaranteed fulfilment/allocation agreements that are in place – I have a feeling soon we’ll be left with more weed stores and whatever restaurants can eek it out after patios are put away. The traffic is brutal in the city, and streets like Dundas and College streets need that second lane back and open for rush hour now, as traffic is starting to get brutal. So that relief valve is closing soon.

As a side bar…I was walking on a major road (forgot which), and there was a weed store, a weed bakery, a weed store, a weed products stores, weed store, some glass paraphernalia store for smoking weed and finally a normal bakery with a chalk board that read “Finally! Not a weed store!”

It was exactly what I was thinking.

That South Park Pandemic special really nailed it with weed. Wonder how much CERB money was spent on weed?

#85 Pricedoutmillenial on 10.23.21 at 11:08 pm

#70 Dogman01

Thanks for the pointing out another etf that helps with the Balance in B&D portfolio. I was bit confused earlier about the balanced part as everything was going down in tandem including the prefs. It’s good to know there are options to balance the downside.

#86 Doug in London on 10.23.21 at 11:18 pm

Recently there’s been a lot of talk about labour shortages in businesses like retail and restaurants. With the CRB now rolled back, it will be interesting to see the effects on the labour market. Will a bunch of potential employees suddenly appear out of nowhere? We shall see.

#87 westcdn on 10.24.21 at 4:39 am

I have never agreed with money for nothing. Mind you, I think a lot of people are overpaid. I clear my sidewalk in winter and don’t get paid by the city. I suppose it keeps my property taxes down. But I do not want to pay those clowns to tan their butts.

I suppose they want to pay for their expensive educations and protect it. Common sense is a lot more cheaper and more useful in my mind. I just think of how many experts who could be replaced by practical people.

Reminds of the doctor in Alert Bay. He was a fraud but people loved him. He got things done and was good for minor pains and stiches so he knew a few things. I even delivered my father for stiches.

He would enter into his library and read up on aliments when confronted. When he could not figure it out he would have his patients flown to Vancouver for treatment.

I actually liked to visit Alert Bay on weekends – they had amazing parties but I had to stay overnight. Plus AL would lead me around – the guy on the rigging who took a shine to me. He not let me quit, yes he was indigenous.

#88 Ryan Lewenza on 10.24.21 at 8:37 am

Doug in London “ Recently there’s been a lot of talk about labour shortages in businesses like retail and restaurants. With the CRB now rolled back, it will be interesting to see the effects on the labour market. Will a bunch of potential employees suddenly appear out of nowhere? We shall see.”

This is definitely the case. Just walking by bars and retail shops and you’ll see all the job postings on the windows. It seems logical that once you remove this government support many people will jump back into the labour market and fill these job vacancies. – Ryan L

#89 Wrk.dover on 10.24.21 at 9:41 am

When I read ego fueled comments here, I always chuckle to myself, on their similarity to Dave Chapelle’s parody of Rick James.

#90 the Jaguar on 10.24.21 at 10:35 am

Guess those old meanies who support the building of pipelines can’t be held responsible for this one. Morning news snippet:

“40 containers lost in rough waters. The ship first ran into trouble Friday, when it lost 40 of its shipping containers in rough waters, 70 kilometres west of the Juan de Fuca Strait, which separates Washington state and Vancouver Island.

The Coast Guard said Zim Kingston is carrying more than 52,000 kilograms of xanthates, which includes potassium amylxanthate, housed in two of the containers that are on fire aboard the ship.

The compound, which is used in mining, is classified by the U.S. government as “spontaneously combustible.” Potassium amylxanthate is also toxic to marine life.

The Canadian Coast Guard said it was working with its U.S. counterpart to track the 40 containers that had fallen overboard, saying they pose a significant risk to mariners. Late Saturday, the containers were about 22 kilometres off the west coast of Vancouver Island, near Bamfield.

“This is extremely concerning. The ship and containers are very close to Victoria, B.C., and a big storm is forecast to hit tonight. We … are worried this may be yet another environmental disaster,” said David Boudinot, president of Surfrider Foundation Canada, an environmental organization.”

#91 Dharma Bum on 10.24.21 at 10:37 am

#134 Dragonfly 58 (Yesterday)

By the way , I own a 1914 Model T.
————————————————————————————

My point exactly.

And in a hundred years from now, collectors will own 2021 Teslas.

No one will collect electric Hyundais from the 2020s.

It’s not about the specific practicalities or details of the technology within the vehicle.

It’s the historical impact and scale of the introduction of a particular concept, the notoriety and publicity surrounding it, and the personality and celebrity status of the individual behind it all.

Now do you understand?

#92 WTF on 10.24.21 at 10:54 am

#81
“But I would reread your wife’s pension statement”

I have, and also ran it by our finance person.

U R probably correct IF hers was an entire career at one workplace situation. The bridging amount is only based on her tenure in the MPP which is 16 yrs. The MPP has no record of the many other years she worked at other jobs where she also contributed to CPP.

Point being, there are variables with regards to pension payouts.

Enjoy your Sunday as well.

Regards

#93 Dragonfly 58 on 10.24.21 at 11:14 am

Sorry Dharma, I still don’t see it. The Model T was a basic , but well engineered and built , very inexpensive vehicle. The every man’s car. It sold in vast numbers because it was a very good value for the money vehicle. And very little money at that.
My little I.C. Hyundai is much along the same lines, but these days there are quite a few similar vehicles on the market so no single make and model achives the sort of market domination that Ford saw with the Model T.
Tesla may be a great vehicle, but it is freaking expensive. A status symbol. I expect the complexity of the electronics, and Tesla’s refusal to suply parts or let anyone repair one ,except at Tesla factory service centres will doom any long term survival.

#94 Dragonfly 58 on 10.24.21 at 12:45 pm

People collect Locomobile’s and Pierce Arrow’s today. But they were built and survive in handfull numbers. Much closer to a Tesla. Great cars , but built at a price for the wealthy. Top model Tesla’s are around what $150,000.00 Cdn ? Same sort of price strata as my previously mentioned Pierce Arrow.
Model T ‘s sold at around $500.00 during some of their biggest sales years. Sold in the millions upon millions.
There are still something like 200,000 of them still around.
Apart from a handfull of very wealthy collectors almost no one even knows what a Pierce Arrow is.
I strongly suspect in 100 years, Tesla’s will be much the same.

#95 KLNR on 10.24.21 at 5:30 pm

@#63 Penny Henny on 10.23.21 at 6:35 pm
#29 Puddle jumper on 10.23.21 at 1:32 pm
#3 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 11:04 am

Seriously, does anyone read this guy’s nonsensical posts? Is it written in some foreign incantation from a universe where sentences begin with periods?

How about we give this blog a facelift and upgrade it with filters so we can weed out authors of posts we’d just rather not hear from?

It’s about time we collectively move into the new millennium …
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Get lost poodle jumper.

you should follow him/her/them