Lost

Have we lost our way?

Silly query. Of course we have. Utterly.

Yesterday we reviewed household mortgage debt – rising by $400 million per day,  now sitting at $1.76 trillion. That’s 1,760 times a billion. We also yakked about rates. Those five-year loans at 1.99% are gone. Now they’re 2.59%. In a year or more they could be 4%. Then the amount of interest paid doubles and principal repayment hits the brakes. The renewal risk to new buyers is spiraling higher. Do they even realize it? Do they know that traditionally house values fall as loan costs rise?

In short, this could be a really, really bad time to load up on 20x leverage to grab an inflated property, especially if you don’t have financial assets to fall back on if things go south.

But wait. Not in Langford, BC, where an alternative universe has been created by Mayor Stew Young and his buds on council.

 This burg of about 40,000 people sits on bucolic Vancouver Island not far from Victoria, where the average SF house now commands $1.1 million, up 25% year/year. Ouch. But Langford is a more suburban-kinda commuter sweatpants place where you’d expect to pay less. And you’d be wrong. The average detached on the fringe is $900,000 and it’s a mill closer to downtown.

‘Wait’, says Stew to the jilted newbies without savings but whose hearts teem with house lust, ‘I can save you!’

Here’s the deal. The mayor is taking a few million dollars of taxpayers’ dough and giving it away in down payment cash. The “Attainable Home Ownership Program” will hand over 75% of the funds required to buy real estate using twenty times leverage to couples with an income of just under $100,000. So on a $1,000,000 purchase the buyers would need only $12,500 in actual savings. That, of course, increases the effective leverage to 80 times. Yahoo! Let ‘er rip! At this ratio, all the buyers’ equity would be wiped out if the house declined just 1.2% in value.

How do you qualify? Live there for two years. And – just to ensure there’s maximum financial risk to all the kids – buyers cannot possess more than $50,000 “in household assets.” Like savings, or TFSAs and RRSPs, presumably. In other words, a minor real estate correction (very possible as rates rise) will put buyers deep underwater without a boat. Even a rubber ducky.

It’s hard to believe a local government would so this. “We don’t see other municipalities taking on the challenge of providing attainable housing in any meaningful way the way Langford is doing,” says the mayor. And, of course, there’s a damn good reason for that.

“Between Bank of Mom, the Liberal’s under 40 TFSAthingy, and a Santa Clause mayor,” says local blog dog Shawn, “how can prices go anywhere but up as interest rate risk rises in lock step? Crazy.”

Now, let’s flip over to the mainland, home of unicorns, magic mushrooms, supercars, equally-questionable politicians and (of course) Generation Squeeze. In Vancouver, Mayor Kennedy Stewart is being true to his NDP roots by wanting hoods of expensive single-family homes to be opened up to the construction of six-plexes. So each house now could become home to six families, presumably increasing housing stock and providing more affordable accommodation.

What could possibly go wrong?

Well, suddenly every SFH lot would become worth more, realtors point out. If an owner can convert a property into six separate sales, or unload to a developer willing to erect the multi-family structure and find six buyers, the dirt becomes more valuable. So much for affordability.

It’s also a recipe for conflict. Folks don’t pay two or three million to live on a quiet, leafy VYR street only to have twenty or more people move into the lot next door, with six dogs, ten vehicles and five tattooed boyfriends. It’s a fine example of what capricious change can mean when you live in a weird place, have most of your net worth in a single asset, or elect naïve idealogues with no skin in the game and defined-benefit pensions.

Lost. Our. Way.

*     *     *

Okay, time for the Investment Question of the Day. Here’s Terry:

Long time follower and fellow dog lover here. When setting up a balanced 60/40 portfolio, how are the following “fixed income” sources accounted for: CPP, OAS and a government pension? These three sources supply me in retirement with a “fixed income”. Should my investment portfolio then be less than 40% bonds?

Good ask. You are correct – those sources of retirement income are stable, well-funded, indexed and function just like the safe portion of a B&D account. So, in a sense, they are equivalent to fixed income, and this leads many people with DB pensions to take crazy FAANG/Tesla/BTC flings with the rest of their portfolio.

But holding ‘safe’ stuff like a few bonds and preferred shares is not done merely to quell volatility. As we have mentioned, prefs will augment smartly as interest rates increase, plus provide a steady stream of income and also hand you a dividend tax credit. More importantly, a B&D approach to investing is intended to defeat human emotion. When things go up, people clamour for them. When assets fall, investors panic and sell, fearing zero’s coming. Both are mistakes.

The Covid crash of 2020 proved exactly why this approach works. Downside protection (bonds rose as stocks dropped) and quick recovery. Investing is not a race. Outsized returns are not the prize, when they come with higher risk. My personal goals are (a) don’t lose money and (b) get a reasonable return.

If you share them, be balanced. Unlike, say, the mayor of Langford.

About the picture: “Here is a photo is my 3-year-old, Mayu,” writes Sebastian. “Her mother is a ticketed Canadian Inuit Dog, an intelligent breed with an colossal amount of energy. In the winter she loves pulling me around on skis. The photo is unedited, capturing her posing by a bonfire under an Arctic night sky. She smelled like smoke for three days afterwards.”

139 comments ↓

#1 Not a Housing Pumper on 10.22.21 at 12:35 pm

Hello Garth, in the event of interest rate increases, the realtors give doom and gloom that they can’t raise rates because too much govt debt. If the CB holds much of the govt debt, aren’t the proceeds given back to the govt? If so isnt public debt simply awash (to an extent)? And private debt like mortgages going to hit?

Bond yields are set by the market, which the CB does not control. They are rising and likely to continue doing so while inflationary pressures augment. – Garth

#2 Steven Rowlandson on 10.22.21 at 12:36 pm

“Have we lost our way?”

Where it counts the western world lost it’s way long ago.
When the shepherd is a wolf the flock is only so much meat.

#3 Michael in-north-york on 10.22.21 at 12:57 pm

“But rates will not stay where they are if inflation settles in above 4%. So debt-servicing costs ramp higher. We do not ‘inflate’ our way out. Ever. – Garth”

I agree, the rates will not stay at today’s level. But will they go up as much as needed to keep the inflation at the 2% target? Or, will BoC try to balance the need to check inflation with the need to avoid a recession?

BoC will not keep the rates low just to help the overstretched homeowners. But all sectors of the economy are connected. If the homeowners struggle to pay their mortgages, they will buy fewer consumer goods. The industries will see their profits trimmed or turned into losses.

I expect that BoC will have to choose: either allow the inflation rate above the target, or trigger a recession. And, will choose to avoid recession.

Of course I am not an expert and might be wrong (although my personal finances will probably do OK in either scenario).

#4 BlogDog123 on 10.22.21 at 1:02 pm

You have to remember that some mayors are beholden to the real estate industry and incumbent homeowners who do not want the price of houses to go down…

Feed the house lust and get re-elected. Keep the nimby folks happy by having onerous zoning laws to keep the value of real estate high… A recipe for success at the ballot box.

Hey! Move to Saguenay Quebec region where many houses go for less than 200k ! C’est bon!

#5 Quintilian on 10.22.21 at 1:03 pm

“Bond yields are set by the market, which the CB does not control. They are rising and likely to continue doing so while inflationary pressures augment. – Garth”

Bond yields are indirectly controlled by Central Bankers.
Central bankers are indirectly controlled by politicians.
Politicians are controlled by their constituents whose avarice is in alignment.

#6 Prince Polo on 10.22.21 at 1:07 pm

When are the dodo-brains in Ottawa announcing more “affordability” via 2-generation 50-yr and 3-generation 75-yr amortizations? Then we will be the most successful country in the entire universe!

#7 the Jaguar on 10.22.21 at 1:10 pm

Mayu looks Saintly. Snowshoe sized paws.

Vancouver Mayor Kennedy is taking a page out of the Calgary Guidebook for Great Communities which also is a strategy for densification. The first phase is the inner north area of the city ( link provided).

https://engage.calgary.ca/northhill

Lots of expensive infills on these historically larger inner city lots and the owners aren’t too happy about six units going up next to them exactly as Garth outlines. The corner lots are the ones targeted. Lot’s of seniors living in these areas, likely on fixed incomes and with the aging infrastructure of these old bungalows it’s an easy sell to get them to give up the lot.

It’s a tough nut because the other end of issue is that the city can’t just keep ‘sprawling’ outward. Many are still pissed off over the approval of the ’14 new communites in 2018.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-new-communities-1.5349211

Case anyone isn’t aware, “Big Oil” has got nothin’ on “Big Development” in Cowtown.

There is more than one type of ‘cartel’ and real estate is one of the biggest, sneakiest, ‘act in our own self interest’ cartels around.

“There’s no such thing as good money or bad money.There’s just money. ~ Lucky Luciano.

#8 Dolce Vita on 10.22.21 at 1:10 pm

I liked the dog.

———————-

As for the rest, more Cdn RE Virus (CREVid ’21) symptomatology revealed here in this Blog’s Comment section and in the prose today:

1. Lust
2. Greed
3. Envy
4. Pride

Severing the Soul from Grace.

80X so in Langford, BC.

#9 604sam on 10.22.21 at 1:13 pm

Beautiful dog

#10 OK, Doomer on 10.22.21 at 1:15 pm

There’s no end to the stupidity politicians can get into when they have someone else’s cheque book. They don’t have to live with the consequences of their actions, so every dumba$$ idea sounds great.

On a side note, I just canceled my Netflix subscription. The sight of numerous Karens wearing “BLM” shirts while trying to cancel black comedian Dave Chapelle was more than my stomach could handle.

Netflix and Karens: they deserve each other and don’t deserve a penny of my money.

#11 Blacksheep on 10.22.21 at 1:16 pm

“Between Bank of Mom, the Liberal’s under 40 TFSAthingy, and a Santa Clause mayor,” says local blog dog Shawn, “how can prices go anywhere but up as interest rate risk rises in lock step? Crazy.”

“Now, let’s flip over to the mainland, home of unicorns, magic mushrooms, supercars, equally-questionable politicians and (of course) Generation Squeeze. In Vancouver, Mayor Kennedy Stewart is being true to his NDP roots by wanting hoods of expensive single-family homes to be opened up to the construction of six-plexes. So each house now could become home to six families, presumably increasing housing stock and providing more affordable accommodation.

What could possibly go wrong?

Well, suddenly every SFH lot would become worth more, realtors point out. If an owner can convert a property into six separate sales, or unload to a developer willing to erect the multi-family structure and find six buyers, the dirt becomes more valuable. So much for affordability.”
————————-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhFHIlwCSq0

#12 Adam on 10.22.21 at 1:18 pm

80x leverage to buy a $1 million dollar home and you’re not allowed to have more than $50,000 in assets to qualify.

That could easily and permanently financially wipe out a family permanently. A new roof, temporary job loss, new kid, temporary disability, a bad hangover could cause it.

I think we have hit peak house.

#13 Barb on 10.22.21 at 1:24 pm

“…Mayor Kennedy Stewart is being true to his NDP roots by wanting hoods of expensive single-family homes to be opened up to the construction of six-plexes. ”

———————————-
The NDP mindset never ceases to amaze me.
And disgust me.

#14 Felix on 10.22.21 at 1:25 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

A Lost dog is far more valuable to humanity and the planet than a Found dog.

#15 TurnerNation on 10.22.21 at 1:29 pm

#84 Lead Paint on 10.21.21 at 9:09 pm
Haha thanks I guess? What’s that saying. “When you’re one step ahead of the crowd you’re a genius. When you’re two steps ahead, you’re a crackpot.”

— Almost back to normal. Remember, by account this is set to run until 2025 – The world under AI & Blockchain control. Why every country has the ‘green passes’.

.Canada no longer advising against non-essential travel, first time since March 2020(ctvnews.ca)

.Putin orders Russians to stop work for a week amid record Covid daily deaths(cnbc.com)

.Russia reports cases of more contagious COVID-19 Delta subvariant (reuters.com)

. Flights cancelled, schools closed as China fights virus outbreak (news.com.au)



— Gutting of the Middle Class here in the Former First World Countries. On to UBI* you will go serf.
(Coming 2022-23). Yep CV can do this too
Thank you to our heros – first responders! Thank you for your service!!

.Toronto police officers who ignore vaccine mandate will be placed on ‘indefinite unpaid absence’ (thestar.com)

. Don’t expect EI [Employment Insurance] if you lose your job for not being vaccinated( cbc.ca)


— And there is is. The permanent rolling Economic Lockdowns – into 2025. They aren’t hiding it.

“Freeland said the government is taking out “insurance” by creating the new support program in the event of local lockdowns in the future, and that those who are affected by those lockdowns would be able to tap the subsidy…
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-letting-aid-expire-replacing-with-programs-for-hardest-hit-1.1669661

#16 kommykim on 10.22.21 at 1:32 pm

Stew Young has always been a pro-development RE humper.
The math doesn’t quite add up for his down payment subsidy. To qualify for the $450K mortgage AND gross less than $99,999 to receive 75% for the down payment puts your family in a very narrow income bracket.
I haven’t gone into the details, but it doesn’t really pass the smell test. Neither does Stew’s ideological fantasy of taller building magically creating cheaper units for ~450K.
I think this is just a vote buying gimmick that very few will qualify for, but the financially illiterate will lap it up.

#17 THE DANDADA on 10.22.21 at 1:35 pm

If it’s such a big deal and a concern then why are the BANKS lending out the money?

Why are the GOVERNMENTS allowing this to take place?

#18 Philco on 10.22.21 at 1:35 pm

#2 Steven Rowlandson on 10.22.21 at 12:36 pm
“Have we lost our way?”
———————————–
LOL
You can put that on the fridge along with the new roll out Cancel culture ideology. Values are lost in many ways.

Just go talk to older folks you can see the diff in 8 sec.
The internet and social media has spawned a disaster. Children’s should not have access period. Its a cesspool at best.

My way was Ignore all the white noise sand bag the shit out of everything.
I trust ME.

#19 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 1:36 pm

Trust is LOST and that’s bad news

The consensus is that CPI from statistics Canada is not to be trusted.

A loss of trust is very bad. Our entire economy and society relies on trust. Trust you will get paid for your work. Trust that you safely walk the street. Trust that your house is very unlikely to be broken into. Trust that the grocery store will be there everyday. Trust in the medical system. Trust in government.

Despite a lot of complaining we all rely on trust everyday. It’s loss is bad news.

And of course a loss of trust is happening. Partly to blame is the internet where every conspiracy can be nurtured and spread. Trump accelerated the idea that government can’t be trusted.

I’m dealing with responses such as the following:

“You obviously missed fisherman’s point that Canada being ranked that high only delegitimizes the rankings.”

–Seriously a high ranking only proves the ranking is wrong. Talk about people believing just whatever they want to believe.

“The one thing I don’t think anyone would contest is that the official inflation rate is far below reality.”

—Based on what your particular trip to the grocery store- That’s better than an army of data collectors ding their job?

“Your faith in their [Stats Canada] incorruptibility may be misplaced.”

– I see no evidence they have been corrupted. Don’t people see them actually reporting the 20% increase in bacon prices and 13% in beef?

Sorry but this economy and society serves me well. I will continue to trust in things for the most part. What’s the alternative? Endless bellyaching?

#20 In Dog We Trust on 10.22.21 at 1:43 pm

“I do think it’s time to taper; I don’t think it’s time to raise rates,” Powell said in a virtual appearance before a conference. “We think we can be patient and allow the labor market to heal.”

That outlook, Powell emphasized, is only the most likely case, adding that if inflation – already higher and lasting longer than earlier expected – moves persistently upward, the Fed would act.

“Our policy is well positioned to manage a range of plausible outcomes,” he said.

#21 OFF-SHORE BANKER on 10.22.21 at 1:46 pm

HOW do you keep playing the game?

Just stack the deck.

All that worthless fiat monopoly – just print more!

#22 facts on 10.22.21 at 1:47 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax) Please go away. – Garth

#23 Dolce Vita on 10.22.21 at 1:53 pm

You must be excited Canada that you can now travel without a reason.

I’d be a bit HESITANT if I were you w.r.t. Europe.

Recall you seem to “virus peak” about 1 to 1.5 months after Europe:

https://i.imgur.com/yeH26J6.png

You all seem to like to land in either London, Frankfurt or Amsterdam:

https://i.imgur.com/hVP2Jdl.png

Not just poor UK, Deutschland and The Netherlands on the upswing other countries as well…

Poor Austria 8.9M souls with about as many cases as all of Italia 60M:

https://kurier.at/coronavirus

It’s not just them (left out the Nordics since why would a Cdn go to a Nordic country this time of year?):

https://i.imgur.com/e1qUU9E.png

So far, touch wood, safe countries:

Spain, Portugal, France * & Italia **.

I have to ask how long will that last even with the vax? Stats out of the UK today by ZOE (4.7M subscribers, real time data):

https://i.imgur.com/N4kjX6b.png

and this on efficacy:

https://i.imgur.com/RKadFHn.png

——————-

I love you all, hope Canada is spared but not holding my breath yet.

— A heads up, FWIW.

* Land there.
** Come visit Italia (the coffee & foods not bad), we can always use your cash Canada.

#24 JR on 10.22.21 at 1:56 pm

Now, let’s flip over to the mainland, home of unicorns, magic mushrooms, supercars, equally-questionable politicians and (of course) Generation Squeeze. In Vancouver, Mayor Kennedy Stewart is being true to his NDP roots by wanting hoods of expensive single-family homes to be opened up to the construction of six-plexes. So each house now could become home to six families, presumably increasing housing stock and providing more affordable accommodation.

What could possibly go wrong?

Well, suddenly every SFH lot would become worth more, realtors point out. If an owner can convert a property into six separate sales, or unload to a developer willing to erect the multi-family structure and find six buyers, the dirt becomes more valuable. So much for affordability.

It’s also a recipe for conflict. Folks don’t pay two or three million to live on a quiet, leafy VYR street only to have twenty or more people move into the lot next door, with six dogs, ten vehicles and five tattooed boyfriends. It’s a fine example of what capricious change can mean when you live in a weird place, have most of your net worth in a single asset, or elect naïve idealogues with no skin in the game and defined-benefit pensions.

Lost. Our. Way.
————————————–

Isn’t this great for a city where there is a housing shortage and prices spiraling out of control? Most of Vancouver is zoned for single family homes. Densifying in a place where everyone wants to be and giving developers an incentive to make more affordable units instead of mansions that are out of the reach of normal people is a good thing, no?

They need to figure out some way to increase supply, densifying in the city makes lots of sense to me.

#25 XGRO and chill on 10.22.21 at 2:00 pm

“The Covid crash of 2020 proved exactly why this approach works. Downside protection (bonds rose as stocks dropped) and quick recovery.”

VAB dropped from 27.58 on March 1 2020 to 23.68 on March 15, a 14% drop in 2 weeks. Even if you go back a month or to when VAB wasn’t trading at that big peak, it was still a drop to the bottom on March 15 from an earlier date.

Bonds have some other benefits, such as longer term risk mitigation, but they aren’t as great as they used to be.

Why would you own VAB? – Garth

#26 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 2:02 pm

Best dog pic yet! That coming from a cat guy.

#27 Not Fooled on 10.22.21 at 2:07 pm

The income limit for this predatory plan is actually $125,000

https://www.langford.ca/residents/welcomehome/

Mayor Stew has apparently teamed up with developers anxious to move those hard to sell 2 bdrm condo units.

Speccers are happy to buy, rent, and flip the 1 bdrm units, so good luck to over-leveraged youngsters when the 2 bdrm unit they were shepherded into can’t be re-sold for market value for 5 years.

It’s only a win for developers.

#28 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 2:10 pm

The GVRD today, has to be one of the most loony places in Canada. Seriously, the stupidity never seems to end. You can’t go a week without another dumbass idea exiting the mouths of their politicians. WTH is going on over there?

#29 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 2:17 pm

#5 Quintilian on 10.22.21 at 1:03 pm
“Bond yields are set by the market, which the CB does not control. They are rising and likely to continue doing so while inflationary pressures augment. – Garth”

Bond yields are indirectly controlled by Central Bankers.
——

Yeah, but ours is running really low on ordnance…

#30 Philco on 10.22.21 at 2:21 pm

TN
“Freeland said the government is taking out “insurance” by creating the new support program in the event of local lockdowns in the future, and that those who are affected by those lockdowns would be able to tap the subsidy…
———————————-
Are they planning something? Is there going to be a NEW tax to fund this?
Here’s a simple Eg how ignorant many are and it was never even brought up? WTF?
Was A Ok to toss out the PPE just before Covid and then give the rest to China when we were getting hit. They certainly need our help.
How Mr idiots back in power I will never know…Actually I do.
Crooked media, Naive Canadians their called suckers, putting cash in Corps and peoples pockets. hell the list goes on. Can you investigate I don’t have time.
Cheers

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 2:26 pm

13 Barb on 10.22.21 at 1:24 pm
“…Mayor Kennedy Stewart is being true to his NDP roots by wanting hoods of expensive single-family homes to be opened up to the construction of six-plexes. ”

———————————-
The NDP mindset never ceases to amaze me.
And disgust me.
——————————-
Well, Hulk Horgan and his merry band of Socialists is polling quite well in BC.
I think he did a very good job guiding BC thru the pandemic, and overall is well liked and respected.
Can’t say that about his counter part on the other side of the Rockies.
But there’s nothing wrong preferring one party over the other. That’s politics.
But disgust. Not healthy.
But you’re right about the Mayor.
Seems strange. No clear focus. Must be voted out.

#32 Old gringo on 10.22.21 at 2:27 pm

Keep in mind Stew Young is also the biggest developer of condos in Langford.
That may answer some of the concerns!

#33 Wrk.dover on 10.22.21 at 2:28 pm

Which is what must happen in Langford BC when edibles are consumed by the fistful during council sessions.

We feel peacey, lovey, and groovy…lets vote on it.

Far out man! Like totally dude!

#34 Joe Schmoe on 10.22.21 at 2:31 pm

That is a great picture.

My parents are well into retirement…they are financially healthy.

How to consider OAS/CPP stumped me as well…great advice.

#35 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 2:31 pm

#3 Michael in-north-york on 10.22.21 at 12:57 pm
“But rates will not stay where they are if inflation settles in above 4%. So debt-servicing costs ramp higher. We do not ‘inflate’ our way out. Ever. – Garth”

I agree, the rates will not stay at today’s level. But will they go up as much as needed to keep the inflation at the 2% target? Or, will BoC try to balance the need to check inflation with the need to avoid a recession?

BoC will not keep the rates low just to help the overstretched homeowners. But all sectors of the economy are connected. If the homeowners struggle to pay their mortgages, they will buy fewer consumer goods. The industries will see their profits trimmed or turned into losses.

I expect that BoC will have to choose: either allow the inflation rate above the target, or trigger a recession. And, will choose to avoid recession.

Of course I am not an expert and might be wrong (although my personal finances will probably do OK in either scenario).
—- —

We think alike. I agree, but will add that the BoC will not be able to hold rates down in defiance of the US Fed and the ECB should they decide differently. They don’t have a massive nation-wide RE bubble to worry about, and inflation is rising for them too.

I think it’ll keep going until the ECB/FED pull in the reins, then the BOC will have to start worrying about the currency on top of everything else. From there they’ll eventually have to risk the economy or we all visit the land of 10.00 cauliflower.

#36 Exodus 2020 on 10.22.21 at 2:33 pm

Rezoning SFD property to multi-unit will stabilize home prices for first time buyers, who cares if it drives up land values. Garth, you always say this is a supply and demand issue, so this alleviates part of the supply issue.

That being said, densification sucks, I hate apartment living, countless hours going up and down stairs to take out garbage, going through 12 doors just for one load, crammed bike room with abandoned bikes everywhere, breaking my back going to a 4×8 storage locker, walking a block to tend a 4×8 garden plot, dealing with lack of air flow, poor ventilation and no AC in the heat of the summer , tiny kitchen and no where to put things…. These damn places aren’t thought out well and I’m throwing in the towel and buying a house in an affordable location before it’s too late!

#37 secular bull and bear on 10.22.21 at 2:40 pm

But rates will not stay where they are if inflation settles in above 4%. So debt-servicing costs ramp higher. We do not ‘inflate’ our way out. Ever. – Garth
_______________________________________

i’m sorry Garth. i agree with you mostly. but that comment is dead wrong.

that’s exactly what we do, inflate our way out of debt. its’ a well known and established government policy to inflate out of debt.

that is exactly what governments did after world war 2, when REAL YIELDS hit -18% in 1947. yes. it’s true. inflation was raging, and governments kept rates low. in 1951, Real Yields hit -7%. there was literally a period from 2941 to 1952 that REAL Yields were NEGATIVE…

ie… inflate out of debt.

again, in 1973 to 1980, REAL yields hid -4.5% and were negative for the whole 7 year period.

currently, REAL yields are -5%

that is, by definition, inflating out of debt.

this is done by design. on purpose. by central banks, to help governments who are literally broke.

as long as REAL rates are negative, the dog and pony show will continue.

#38 crossbordershopper on 10.22.21 at 2:52 pm

i think its all closer to my viewpoint that anyone in Canada should own a house. anyone. just work and pay what you can afford and live in your city to keep people living in the city they grew up. Kids will have roots and these people will look after parents not too far away.
its a good deal, this whole 80x leverage, sure say 100% leverage it doesnt matter, 30 year amt or 50 year amt. it doesnt matter.
eveyrone should have there name that they live and belong to the city, and commit to the city and will contribute to the growth and stability of the city.
what did you want a couple with a small kid to pay some big corporation rent money forever while the property rises in value and they work for free for a place to live. People should be given a place to live.
sure it sounds communist or socialist or something, but ok lets go with your format, some guy getting a free house from his mom for free, or a neighbour couple going to work to pay for the house since they didnt have a free house given to them,
so do we punish the children of people who didnt save and have a home? were trying to build a society here.
with real estate rises due to inflation, then only the haves make more, and the little people who are hand to mouth fall farther behind and never catch up.
but how about there kids, how does a six year old ever think he is going to get an education good job and what pay for 30 years for a house that was free to there neighbour. the whole system is messed up.

#39 Philco on 10.22.21 at 2:54 pm

#19 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 1:36 pm
Trust is LOST and that’s bad news

The consensus is that CPI from statistics Canada is not to be trusted.
———————
Yup its a global trend…Hope it picks up speed.
People in power prey on a few things.
1) Most are clueless ie suck up the BS on the news and or buy their fix it plans (Like a over priced and shortage of housing)
2) Peeps forget of their follies fast as long as foods in their bellies.

Rinse and repeat same shit different day, month, year.
Not this guy.
I wrote many “Harsh” letters to clowns at the helm. I know it does jack shit but at least I spoke and lowers my blood pressure.

#40 ogdoad on 10.22.21 at 2:58 pm

Silly question, but what should our way be? And, who determines whether that way is ‘right’ or not? Davos? In my opinion we’ve never actually had a way…we’ve just been following the rules of the most successful ways of our times. They’ve ended. As will today’s way…what way will be next? That answer lies with people who are much richer and smarter than I.

Og

#41 Barb on 10.22.21 at 3:05 pm

Stunning photo of Mayu.
Calendar-worthy!

#42 Faron on 10.22.21 at 3:06 pm

#82 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 8:51 pm

67 Faron

“Looks like “Woke up this morning…” is back.”

Indeed. Sorry about that.

#43 Dave on 10.22.21 at 3:06 pm

Langford: tied with Nanaimo, known as “Surrey by the sea…

#44 Jeff in Vic on 10.22.21 at 3:08 pm

If you read the article on the Langford program… the money is coming from developer cost charges that the municipality puts on top for the building permit… not that it makes a huge difference… still tax money… but at least you know where it is coming from.

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 3:11 pm

#121 Not fooled
fishman gave evidence Stats Can was not a manipulator and then proceeded to judge that it was keeping 3 sets of books…. Everyone’s a victim….
****************
StatsCan also gathers data, including those on criminal offenses, based on self-declared gender. So if a male sexual psychopath ‘felt’ like a laydee while raping and murdering children, then a crime that no women ever commit will be recorded as having been committed by a woman.
Your faith in their incorruptibility may be misplaced.
————————————-
There are many posters who are trying to discredit StatsCan and it’s data collection methodology. But “Not fooled” has put the cherry on the cake.
It shows you how mentally unhinged conspiracy theories advocates can become, and how deep and wide they’ll search to try to find examples that feed their strange and twisted believes.

#46 Faron on 10.22.21 at 3:12 pm

#33 Wrk.dover on 10.22.21 at 2:28 pm

Which is what must happen in Langford BC when edibles are consumed by the fistful during council sessions.

We feel peacey, lovey, and groovy…lets vote on it.

Far out man! Like totally dude!

Nope. Langford is more coke, designer meth, boob jobs, muscle cars and jacked turbo diesels (Ponz’s fave). It’s Kelowna glued onto hippy town. Saying is: for every plastic bag washed and reused in Victoria someone in Langford lights a tire fire.

Langford RE: The other insanity is the excavation that is happening in the outlying areas. Yes, land prices are high, but blasting entire hills and building 200′ retaining walls? Someone is getting PAID and I’d be curious to know how legit it all is.

#47 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 10.22.21 at 3:15 pm

Re: six homes, one lot.

This is what Vancouver needs: Density

#48 willworkforpickles on 10.22.21 at 3:16 pm

Inflate our way/your way out of debt?
In the timeline that would take with the amount of debt – government and personal…even if possible (its not) it won’t happen while the US and Canada remain sovereign nations.
Regardless…debt creation is in near permanent maniacal runaway mode whatever words of reigning it in are used to smokescreen the truth.
And no chance is inflating our way out of debt going to take shape with currently not apparent but coming recession/s materializing and with looming world upheaval ahead.

#49 In Dog We Trust on 10.22.21 at 3:31 pm

Inflate our way out of debt,,, Hell Yeah… Normy Powell said yesterday,,, —- —- —- “I do think it’s time to taper; I DON’T think it’s time to raise rates,” in a virtual appearance before a conference. “We think we can be patient and allow the labor market to heal.”

That outlook, Powell emphasized, is only in the most likely case, adding that if inflation – already higher and lasting longer than earlier expected – moves persistently upward, the Fed would act.

“Our policy is well positioned to manage a range of plausible outcomes,” he said.

#50 Triplenet on 10.22.21 at 3:32 pm

Bank rates can go up….6 times

In another shock-and-awe move to douse raging inflation that is making no effort at being transitory, the Bank of Russia raised its policy rate by 75 basis points today, to 7.5%, its sixth rate hike, and the largest hike since the 100-basis-point hike on July 23. And it held the door open for more rate hikes.

Where will we be in 2 years? Or less.

#51 When the Whip Comes Down on 10.22.21 at 3:35 pm

That photo is incredible. Thanks for posting.

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 3:36 pm

Nothing wrong with losing your way, once in a while.
Sometimes, I take the wrong turn to see where it may take me.
You can find new roads that you thought were closed.
But never “take the long way home” you may not make it or be too late.

#53 kommykim on 10.22.21 at 3:53 pm

RE: #17 THE DANDADA on 10.22.21 at 1:35 pm
If it’s such a big deal and a concern then why are the BANKS lending out the money?

Why are the GOVERNMENTS allowing this to take place?

=======================================

#1 Banks are lending money to high risk buyers because it’s backed by the profitable government operated CMHC.

#2 Governments “allow” this because people taking out loans stimulates the economy, generates tax revenue, so then the government doesn’t have to borrow as much if it’s peons weren’t already doing so.

#54 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 3:54 pm

#19 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 1:36 pm

…What’s the alternative? Endless bellyaching?
———-

I think Philco summed up the answer quite nicely, “I trust me”. Trusting that your fate will be handled by others is folly. I don’t act on any single source, and I take a long time to hang my hat on anything. The last thing I’d ever do is put my fate in the hands of others without a giant heaping pile of evidence that I should. And indeed I should, in many cases, but it’s not placed lightly.

The alternative is running your own show. Take good advice, don’t be a wimp. Plot a course and make it happen. Faith and trust are good, but only when placed in the right folks – and that ain’t ever the government.

“A loss of trust is very bad. Our entire economy and society relies on trust. Trust you will get paid for your work. Trust that you safely walk the street. Trust that your house is very unlikely to be broken into. Trust that the grocery store will be there everyday. Trust in the medical system. Trust in government.”

If I don’t get paid for my work, I’ll quit. I can walk safely down any street with the right preparations. If my house is broken into, I already know exactly what I’d do. If the grocery store fails to deliver, I know what my options are. I have no choice but to trust our medical professionals, so I do – although I’ve actually had to help them out on one occasion. Trust the government? Nope. Not a chance. Not here in Canada. My demographic can’t rely on government for a damn thing we haven’t already paid for. Ymmv.

#55 X on 10.22.21 at 3:58 pm

A formal rate hike by the CB early next year would send a message for the RE market as to where rates are going, and to the economy in regards to starting to fight inflation.

#56 Not Fooled on 10.22.21 at 4:01 pm

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 3:11 pm
#121 Not fooled
fishman gave evidence Stats Can was not a manipulator and then proceeded to judge that it was keeping 3 sets of books…. Everyone’s a victim….
****************
StatsCan also gathers data, including those on criminal offenses, based on self-declared gender. So if a male sexual psychopath ‘felt’ like a laydee while raping and murdering children, then a crime that no women ever commit will be recorded as having been committed by a woman.
Your faith in their incorruptibility may be misplaced.
————————————-
There are many posters who are trying to discredit StatsCan and it’s data collection methodology. But “Not fooled” has put the cherry on the cake.
It shows you how mentally unhinged conspiracy theories advocates can become, and how deep and wide they’ll search to try to find examples that feed their strange and twisted believes.

************
Another ideologically blunted buffoon.

“Women: All people who identify as women, whether they are cisgender or transgender women.”

Definition quoted from:
https://www.justice.gc.ca/socjs-esjp/en/women-femmes/Definitions

Other references for the use of “gender self id” in data collection:

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/063.nsf/eng/h_97737.html#1

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/ref/98-20-0002/982000022020002-eng.cfm

Men are imprisoned with women, based on self identification of “gender”. No surgery or hormones necessary.

“Offenders can now be placed in prison based on gender identity rather than anatomy”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/transgender-inmates-csc-policy-1.4512510

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 4:02 pm

#46 Faron on 10.22.21 at 3:12 pm
#33 Wrk.dover on 10.22.21 at 2:28 pm

Which is what must happen in Langford BC when edibles are consumed by the fistful during council sessions.

We feel peacey, lovey, and groovy…lets vote on it.

Far out man! Like totally dude!

Nope. Langford is more coke, designer meth, boob jobs, muscle cars and jacked turbo diesels (Ponz’s fave). It’s Kelowna glued onto hippy town. Saying is: for every plastic bag washed and reused in Victoria someone in Langford lights a tire fire..
—————-
Haha,
I always thought Nanaimo was like the place you just described.
Well, maybe Sailo put the fear of God into them.
Talking about jacked-up F-150s.
When I moved to Surrey in the early 80’s, they were every where.
Frikn monsters, needed an extension ladder to get in.
Scared the crap put of this Austrian country pumpkin.
Never recovered, even after therapy.
Well, thanks for the tip.
Will cross Langford off my places to visit on my Bucket list.

#58 Andy Warhol on 10.22.21 at 4:04 pm

As soon as you stop wanting something, you get it.

#59 Phil Indablanque on 10.22.21 at 4:05 pm

What does a Langford kid get for Christmas?

A Colwood kid’s bike.

https://liveatroyalbay.ca/

#60 SoggyShorts on 10.22.21 at 4:06 pm

Garth, I really think you are right about the risks of buying real estate, but if anyone has no assets other than 12,500 and is offered 80x leverage, why not?

I mean the worst-case scenario is bankruptcy, right?
vs
possible huge tax-free capital gains?

I’d probably roll those dice. Any 80x dice, really.
If I had zero assets other than 12.5K cash and was offered 80x leverage in TSLA or AMZN or just about anything, I’d go for it.

#61 Pricedoutmillenial on 10.22.21 at 4:09 pm

Bonds rise in value when equities go down?

I have setup a balanced and diversified portfolio after reading your blog. When I was doing some research to look for the fixed income component, I looked into bond ETFs. But looks like they too lost value during the initial meltdown, although not by the same amount as equities. Sorry am I missing something. Will my 40% bond ETFs including prefs serve as a shock absorber during a Black swan event ?

#62 pk on 10.22.21 at 4:15 pm

Good point about the CPP and OAS adding to fixed income, just changed my B&D portfolio
from 60% TSLA, 40% AMZN
to 70% TSLA, 30% AMZN
Retired with no real estate (rent)
I would be 100% Tesla but Garth always gives me the willies.
Garth, have you ever driven a Tesla ?

#63 Chameleon on 10.22.21 at 4:15 pm

#14 Felix

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

A Lost dog is far more valuable to humanity and the planet than a Found dog.

——

Where do I send the $6 dry cleaning bill for the coffee that came out of my nose?

On a more serious note, guess what is happening to a big percentage of those Pandemic Puppies now? That’s right, those loving dog humans got bored with them and now they are, as you say, lost…or given up to shelters now that they are no longer puppies. Wait till WFH is over!

Let’s hope the crazy prices paid for these puppies mean the owners remain committed.

But in a few months when the restriction and WFH ends there will be a big sale on previously loved dogs I bet.

#64 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.22.21 at 4:23 pm

HUG THE BUILDING.
Before too long, so called professors in various colleges, both economic and business will have egg on their faces, “TEACHING” their students that savings are bad, bad, bad, and debt is good, good, and doubly good. Dragging back taxes, along with a lack of savings, plus a fireball from hell called dwindling sales, a lot of realtors blood will soon be running in the streets, halls, and boardrooms. For safety sake, when walking down main street, especially when in the vicinity of Pay Day loan offices, hug the buildings tight, jumpers everywhere. Once again “Beware The Ides Of November At Your Peril,” Amen to that brother.

#65 Doug t on 10.22.21 at 4:26 pm

Stew has been mayor since Adam was a boy – he is referred to as King Stew in Langford – has done some great things but also some duds such as this – another example of how much trouble this country is in

#66 DON on 10.22.21 at 4:40 pm

#32 Old gringo on 10.22.21 at 2:27 pm
Keep in mind Stew Young is also the biggest developer of condos in Langford.
That may answer some of the concerns!

**************
Winner winner chicken dinner.

They have scalped bear mountain and are using every available inch…langford is a traffic juggernaut. Miss a turn and the return path is long. Langford has all the big box stores. Mayhem.

Developments everywhere.

@Barb…what you say about Stew’s politics?

@ Faron…i liked your assessment of Langford.

And the funds are coming from the developer fees. Stew is starting to get pushbacks from residents who don’t want condos in their neighbourhoods. He was popular but many Mayors go too far and the worm turns. Langford is a shit hole.

#67 Linda on 10.22.21 at 4:48 pm

And in a BNN headline today, Nova Scotia is thinking about taxing out of province homebuyers. While I’d like to think those actually moving to NS as permanent residents would be exempt, it occurs to me that may not be the case. Does BC exempt those actually planning to reside in the province or does one get whacked regardless of the end result?

#68 Common Sense on 10.22.21 at 4:50 pm

That mayor says he wants to make housing in his town more affordable but he is conflating affordability with needing less money upfront to buy. If houses cost the same or more then they are not more affordable. And houses will cost more since more people are able to purchase. Those that can’t scrape $50k together have no business buying a $1MM home.

That mayor is only looking to attract people to his town and inflate housing further.

#69 Quintilian on 10.22.21 at 5:02 pm

Absolutely no need for the Bank of Canada to raise rates.

The Canadian economy has become too reliant on RE, so why create a recession when it will come along on its own.

As inflation sets in and RE spirals upward and inflate the bubble further to finally an unsustainable mass, even with the artificial supports, it will blow up and cause enough wide spread damage that the low interest rates will be needed.

So why raise rates, just to reduce them later, and cause volatility of the CAD.

#70 Dan in Nanaimo on 10.22.21 at 5:12 pm

Reckless behaviour rewarded with guaranteed support (a.k.a. infinite liquidity) on a foundation of structural weakness is the new normal

Lost ? Not really, just business as usual

#71 Grandv!ew on 10.22.21 at 5:17 pm

Canada Is An Ideal Place To Hoard Vacant Property

Canada might have non-resident taxes, but they’re mostly just a PR tool to dismiss the issue. The taxes only apply to a small region, which can be avoided by investing outside of the boundary. The country’s re-elected leadership promised to outright ban non-resident purchasing. However, they have no idea who is a non-resident, and would prefer to keep it that way.

Canada has no beneficial registry, with BC being a recent exception to the rule. There’s no way to tell who ultimately owns a property, just the person to contact. Setting up an entity such as a corporation or trust web can ultimately circumvent that. Or at least obfuscate it to the point where it’s impossible to tell who actually owns it. Some experts acknowledge this is true, but dismiss it as “too complicated.” Yeah… paying $10,000 in legal fees to avoid paying a six-figure tax bill is certainly something a rich person would never do.

I tend to disagree with that narrative, since that’s not the data we’ve been looking at. A Transparency International study on Canadian real estate (which I was lucky enough to assist with) found this is a huge problem. It found $28.5 billion in mortgages registered to corporate entities from 2008 to 2018. That was just in Greater Toronto, not across the country. Are they owned by the mom and pop investor with a couple of investment properties, or transnational drug king pins with a lot more to spend?

No one knows, because Canada goes out of its way to make sure that data isn’t known. That sure doesn’t stop the government from declaring it domestic though. What’s the term? Wilful Blindness? Anyway, the point is this renders the measure as a vacancy deterrent useless.

Canada also has notoriously low property tax rates AND cheap money. Usually it’s one or the other, but the combination is like asking you to hold homes vacant. It’s a country with sub 1% property taxes, a central bank pushing mortgages below 2%, and 4% inflation. You would have to be an idiot not to hold vacant property with this setup.

The lack of inheritance tax also means if you inherit someone’s primary residence, you pay nothing. Personally, I’d be hoarding property as well if that was my setup in Canada. Especially in the “always goes up” environment it’s trying to create

How much of this information is correct ?

#72 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 5:17 pm

Ponzius Pilatus responded to Not Fooled…

Not fooled pointed to some bizarre and completely irrelevant stuff on self-declared gender to prove why StatsCan should not be trusted when it comes to the Consumer Price Index.

Ponzius said:

There are many posters who are trying to discredit StatsCan and it’s data collection methodology. But “Not fooled” has put the cherry on the cake.

It shows you how mentally unhinged conspiracy theories advocates can become, and how deep and wide they’ll search to try to find examples that feed their strange and twisted believes.

*******************************
Well said and entertaining too.

#73 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 5:26 pm

Nova Scotia can go to…

#67 Linda on 10.22.21 at 4:48 pm

And in a BNN headline today, Nova Scotia is thinking about taxing out of province homebuyers. While I’d like to think those actually moving to NS as permanent residents would be exempt, it occurs to me that may not be the case. Does BC exempt those actually planning to reside in the province or does one get whacked regardless of the end result?

**********************
My birth province and still the land of much of my family has decided it should act like a country separate from Canada. Well then, if so let it get out of Confederation. KICK it out!

It felt good to vote against Equalization earlier this week. I always supported Equalization. But that was before Nova Scotia started treating me like a foreigner and set up a physical border against fellow Canadians.

I believe Nova Scotia is also over-represented in the house of parliament and it definitely is over-represented in the Senate. This should be corrected.

And B.C. is just as bad with its policies against Domestic Foreigners. The Federal government should stop this nonsense. The Feds actually have the right to veto ANY and ALL provincial legislation. They just never do it.

Is Canada a true country or just a Federation of provinces?

#74 SoggyShorts on 10.22.21 at 5:26 pm

#61 Pricedoutmillenial on 10.22.21 at 4:09 pm
Bonds rise in value when equities go down?

I have set up a balanced and diversified portfolio after reading your blog. When I was doing some research to look for the fixed income component, I looked into bond ETFs. But looks like they too lost value during the initial meltdown, although not by the same amount as equities. Sorry am I missing something. Will my 40% bond ETFs including prefs serve as a shock absorber during a Black swan event ?

***************************
It depends on which bond ETF:
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
IEF spiked when everything crashed in 2020.

If you look at any chart with IEF & VOO for example you can see where they move more or less in opposing directions during extreme times.
Ultimately bonds will be a drag on your returns(IEF is down YTD), but they certainly decrease overall volatility and give you something to sell at a profit so that you can buy equities on sale during a crash.

That might be what I hated most about my 100% equity PF in 2020. Yeah, seeing it crash was gut-wrenching, but also not having anything to sell that went up (like IEF did) meant I didn’t get to capitalize at all either.

Now I have IEF as 20% of my PF, and sure, having 1/5 of my PF down YTD sucks, but having the rest of my PF up 22% covers that, and knowing that during the next black swan I won’t be caught completely pants down is priceless.

#75 clos on 10.22.21 at 5:44 pm

Hey Garth
According to this it wont be higher the 450 k
https://www.cheknews.ca/city-of-langford-to-provide-down-payment-assistance-through-innovative-home-ownership-program-901478/

#76 BillyBob on 10.22.21 at 5:48 pm

#19 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 1:36 pm
Trust is LOST and that’s bad news

The consensus is that CPI from statistics Canada is not to be trusted.

A loss of trust is very bad. Our entire economy and society relies on trust. Trust you will get paid for your work. Trust that you safely walk the street. Trust that your house is very unlikely to be broken into. Trust that the grocery store will be there everyday. Trust in the medical system. Trust in government.

Despite a lot of complaining we all rely on trust everyday. It’s loss is bad news.

And of course a loss of trust is happening. Partly to blame is the internet where every conspiracy can be nurtured and spread. Trump accelerated the idea that government can’t be trusted.

I’m dealing with responses such as the following:

“You obviously missed fisherman’s point that Canada being ranked that high only delegitimizes the rankings.”

–Seriously a high ranking only proves the ranking is wrong. Talk about people believing just whatever they want to believe.

=============================================

Nope. It’s not about choosing to believe whatever you want to believe, it’s about choosing WHOM you would believe, considering their motivations and influences. You’re correct about the breakdown of trust. But not all suspicion is unhealthy or misplaced. Blaming Trump? Good grief. He was/is a narcissistic chancer, but he’s a symptom far more than a cause.

I’m just surprised that you’re surprised at the amount of derision the CPI receives. It’s not about a trip to the grocery store, it’s about injecting trillions of units of something into markets making each unit worth a bit less. Apparently that has consequences that no amount of “hedonic adjustment” can paper over.

#77 DON on 10.22.21 at 5:49 pm

#69 Quintilian on 10.22.21 at 5:02 pm
Absolutely no need for the Bank of Canada to raise rates.

The Canadian economy has become too reliant on RE, so why create a recession when it will come along on its own.

As inflation sets in and RE spirals upward and inflate the bubble further to finally an unsustainable mass, even with the artificial supports, it will blow up and cause enough wide spread damage that the low interest rates will be needed.

So why raise rates, just to reduce them later, and cause volatility of the CAD

*************

Garth has repeated why, over and over again. Go seek the truth. Doing nothing while inflation rages is not a solution as life happens in between.

#78 mark on 10.22.21 at 5:50 pm

Sounds like Stew wants to increase the value of his home.

#79 DON on 10.22.21 at 5:55 pm

@Ponzius

Compared to Surrey…Langford is way way more pleasant. Nanaimo is well Nanaimo…still better than Surrey.

#80 Matt on 10.22.21 at 6:01 pm

It’ll be a glorious day when government mandated single family zoning dies.

A boy can dream, right?

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 6:04 pm

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 3:11 pm
#121 Not fooled
fishman gave evidence Stats Can was not a manipulator and then proceeded to judge that it was keeping 3 sets of books…. Everyone’s a victim….
****************
StatsCan also gathers data, including those on criminal offenses, based on self-declared gender. So if a male sexual psychopath ‘felt’ like a laydee while raping and murdering children, then a crime that no women ever commit will be recorded as having been committed by a woman.
Your faith in their incorruptibility may be misplaced.
————————————-
There are many posters who are trying to discredit StatsCan and it’s data collection methodology. But “Not fooled” has put the cherry on the cake.
It shows you how mentally unhinged conspiracy theories advocates can become, and how deep and wide they’ll search to try to find examples that feed their strange and twisted believes.

************
Another ideologically blunted buffoon.

“Women: All people who identify as women, whether they are cisgender or transgender women.”

Definition quoted from:
https://www.justice.gc.ca/socjs-esjp/en/women-femmes/Definitions

Other references for the use of “gender self id” in data collection:

https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/063.nsf/eng/h_97737.html#1

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/ref/98-20-0002/982000022020002-eng.cfm

Men are imprisoned with women, based on self identification of “gender”. No surgery or hormones necessary.

“Offenders can now be placed in prison based on gender identity rather than anatomy”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/transgender-inmates-csc-policy-1.4512510
———-
Interesting.
You profess, you don’t trust the Govenment and the Media.
And yet, you’re quoting them to make your twisted point.
You cant play two sides of the coin.
Remember, the discussion started with questioning the method  which Stats Can uses to calculate the CPI, which is a valid question.
But then you’re off on a rant about trans genders overrunning the prisons.
Not good, Buddy. not good.

#82 alexinvestor on 10.22.21 at 6:04 pm

Bond funds haven’t lost money in a long time, but that time is ending. I noticed that the TD and RBC bond funds have lost 4% YTD. If yields go up another 2%, that pretty much guarantees a loss of another 4-6%.

#83 Neo on 10.22.21 at 6:08 pm

Overall cases peaked in Ontario Sept. 3rd at 944. Mainly because the R Value peaked at 1.43 on Aug 6th and trended down since. (currently 0.85).

Cases peaked in the unvaxxed on Sept. 5th using cases per 100,000 at 12 per 100,000.

This is all with no new public health measures.

We have been stuck at 400-500 cases a day and around 150 ICU for weeks now since the vaccine passport. Yet the unvaxxed 7 day moving average for cases has been in steady decline since Sept 5th.

We are now at 6 cases per 100,000 in the unvaxxed. Down 50% at this point.

“Pandemic of the unvaccinated”…Whatever….The whole notion of it was nothing but propaganda. They are not overrunning our hospitals since hospitalizations peaked on Sept. 8th and has declined since.

This decline in that unvaxxed segment of the population is demonstrating what herd immunity actually looks like.

#84 Brock Smith on 10.22.21 at 6:13 pm

Prices have peaked. They’ve flatlined. In the USA they’re falling…In Communist China they’re falling…
We’re just a few short months away from the recession our governments put off with our own money.

#85 Philco on 10.22.21 at 6:38 pm

#54 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 3:54 pm
#19 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 1:36 pm

…What’s the alternative? Endless bellyaching?
———-
I think Philco summed up the answer quite nicely, “I trust me”.
———————
Cheers
Like Bush#2 said Fool me once….but he Fk it up cause he’s a clown. lol enjoy 17secm of HAHAHAHAHAH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A

There is NO amount of government and their words that will fix ANYTHING. Entrepreneurs and power BACK to the people (if the can find their balls) could……
IM IN!!
Ok back to work…kinda just fixing stuff for my tenant’s.
I kinda trust them so I spoil them :-) Pays my bills and a whole lot more!
And there’s a beer calling name happy hr starts at 4.

#86 Nonplused on 10.22.21 at 6:39 pm

Where is Langford going to get the money for this? Save raising taxes on other homeowners of course.

Mayors should not be allowed to meddle with such things. Nor should prime ministers.

You can’t make things cheaper by giving buyer’s incentives out. That increases demand. And when the incentive is discriminatory (say only for under 40’s or people with less than $50,000 in assets (so no Teslas)), all you do is favor one buyer over another.

So why on earth would residents of Langford vote for this clown? Maybe because they see a personal advantage in having house prices go up up up? Why not have the mayor squeeze the greater fools on your behalf before you cash out and move north?

Oh well at least he hasn’t declared a “climate emergency” or some damn fool thing like that.

And who wants to live in Langford? Ferries are expensive and time consuming. Not to mention all the CO2 they emit. Although I am not sure whether the cars on the ferry would emit less or more CO2 driving the same distance, boats are pretty efficient mpg wise as long as they don’t plane, but they are also pretty big.

#87 Not Fooled on 10.22.21 at 6:43 pm

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 6:04 pm

Blah,blah,blah…

*******

StatsCan bends to the Libs ideologic whims, to the detriment of 51% of Canadians. If they’ll let men pretend they’re women, they’ll pretend that CPI isn’t manipulated to benefit the Libs.

#88 Faron on 10.22.21 at 7:05 pm

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 4:02 pm

#46 Faron on 10.22.21 at 3:12 pm
#33 Wrk.dover on 10.22.21 at 2:28 pm

Will cross Langford off my places to visit on my Bucket list.

Luckily, to get to the nice parts of the south coast, you can drive around Langford. The only thing you will miss is the Disney-esque Goldstream Village sign:

http://www.tarahearn.com/uploads/agent-1/Langford.jpg

Nanaimo is Langford but the drugs are fresher off the boat. Island’s equivalent of flyover country. Unfortunate, because downtown Nanaimo is pretty rad. I don’t know the history, but some buffoon made the mistake of gutting part of it and putting in a casino and a mall.

#89 Dolce Vita on 10.22.21 at 7:29 pm

Well now that the DUST HAS SETTLED since Garth’s ill fated * “THE SQUEEZE” here are the Assets, Debt & Net Worth of the “Under 35 years” **:

https://i.imgur.com/RNvAKN2.png

After Slicing, Dicing, cherry picked some key numbers from the extensive line item list:

“Assets and debts held by economic family type, by age group, Canada, provinces and selected census metropolitan areas, Survey of Financial Security”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110001601

————————

* Garth Ill fated as in:

“Hunt for the guilty, Punishment of the innocent, and Reward for the uninvolved.”

** StatCan Under 35 years lumps together GenZ and 2/3 of the Millennials – sorry kids…go smite StatCan and not me.

Will post the above for GenX, Boomers and the Real Paleos (WWII+) in the next few days since this is a pain in the heine to do. Final post will be all compared, many days from now (stoke the flames of discontent).

#90 Quintilian on 10.22.21 at 7:31 pm

#77 DON on 10.22.21 at 5:49 pm
“Garth has repeated why, over and over again. Go seek the truth. Doing nothing while inflation rages is not a solution as life happens in between”

Garth hopes, and believes that the Central Bankers will do the right thing.

BUT they won’t

Previous behaviours are a great predictor of future behaviours.

They should have started normalizing rates a decade ago, and they didn’t

The CB’s have created enormous distortions to appease their political masters to the extent that now gradual increases would be akin to the “killing of the economy by a thousand cuts”

Better let the inflation monster rear its head fully, so the reset can give us a clean start.

The politicians and CB’s are too corrupt to do admit to what they have done, and to administer the right harsh medicine.

#91 Not Fooled on 10.22.21 at 7:36 pm

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 6:04 pm

Interesting.
You profess, you don’t trust the Govenment and the Media.
And yet, you’re quoting them to make your twisted point.
You cant play two sides of the coin.
Remember, the discussion started with questioning the method which Stats Can uses to calculate the CPI, which is a valid question.
But then you’re off on a rant about trans genders overrunning the prisons.
Not good, Buddy. not good.

********

I said that StatsCan stats are untrustworthy. I didn’t cite their stats to support my statement, I cited their policies. Are you saying their policies are untrustworthy as stated on the website? Who’s the conspiracy loon now?

Where did I say the media was untrustworthy? You’re just making things up because I showed you up for the woke joke you are.

Just imagine if Stephen Harper had said “I’m going to put men in women’s prisons, hospital wards, shelters, sports teams, washrooms and changing facilities, eliminate the long form census, and let people tick whatever sex category best matches their inner fantasies. You’d have lost your meagre share of marbles.

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 7:38 pm

#79 DON on 10.22.21 at 5:55 pm
@Ponzius

Compared to Surrey…Langford is way way more pleasant. Nanaimo is well Nanaimo…still better than Surrey.
———–
Gotta disagree, buddy.
I lived everywhere in the last 40 years in the Lower Mainland.
——–
last 6 years in South Surrey ( not White Rock).
Not bad at all.
Gotta do your research, and pick your spot.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 7:42 pm

#76 Billy Boy
I’m just surprised that you’re surprised at the amount of derision the CPI receives. It’s not about a trip to the grocery store, it’s about injecting trillions of units of something into markets making each unit worth a bit less. Apparently that has consequences that no amount of “hedonic adjustment” can paper over.
———–
Can you translate this rant?
It sounds “cheque” to me.

#94 Outrage on 10.22.21 at 7:53 pm

Langford now is like Surrey on steroids. The mayor owns many businesses in Langford .2500 sqft lots with 2 storey houses with no backyards Its like Dubai but with a lot more crime. I’m leaving sh!t hole Langford and couldn’t be happier.

#95 Cici on 10.22.21 at 7:58 pm

#66 Don

“Langford is a shit hole.”
_____________________________________________

Hilariously true, and true since the 70s, when I was just a sweet young thang ;-)

#96 mike from mtl on 10.22.21 at 8:08 pm

#74 SoggyShorts on 10.22.21 at 5:26 pm

It depends on which bond ETF
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Very true. Personally I do BND, more diversified less aggressive than IEF or TLT. Canadian bond funds are not the same due to how QE works here.

A pet peeve of mine is this whole yield figure, that depends hugely on when exactly and how many existing purchased shares.

Take example VAB. Its true calendar YTD total return is:

26.80 < 25.51 + 0.49 = 26.00 or -3.0% return with -98.2% real yield…yes you've spent a dollar to get pennies back since January 2021. Just like any industry facts can be twisted to suit an image.

#97 Garth's Son Drake on 10.22.21 at 8:14 pm

If I moved to the Island, Langford would be the place, but maybe not anymore.

Mission accomplished ff the goal is to try and increase house prices.

Kelowna did the same thing the the ‘in fill” challenge which is code for how can we make these old war time houses in the core worth more while pretending to be climate change heros- the trick was to allow density to the zoning.

So, instead of 1 house / unit on a property, allow up to 4.

The joke about these war time homes (which are small little pieces of junk surrounded by tent cities and druggies) going for 500k back in 2015 is not a joke about them selling for 1.3M.

Any home owner within this zoning wins the jackpot. It reminds me of when rezoning homes along the Cambie St. corridor in Vancouver. 1.2 million dollar homes all of the sudden became worth 4 million dollars.

And on and on it goes. But at the end of the day, you have to densify. Urban sprawl does not work. Ask Tom Davidoff.

But don’t stop there. Turn all detached properties into condo tower plots. Then we might solve the supply issue so that there are enough units in Canada for everyone in the entire world to own four of.

#98 PastThePeak on 10.22.21 at 8:17 pm

How much will the BoC act without the US Fed going along? Historically, and certainly even more so in the last decade, the BoC does not like to have CAD interest rates much above the US Fed, for fear of an increasing loonie. Canada can’t compete with the US when the loonie rises much above 80c.

Current estimates have the Fed raising rates maybe once in 2022. So BoC will be min 75 bps above the Fed? Seems unlikely.

I never said the CBs wouldn’t raise rates – just that they wouldn’t get very far…

#99 Back of Napkin Math on 10.22.21 at 8:20 pm

I just did some back of the napkin math:

Canada needs 31.2 billion units of housing stock / inventory for break even on supply and global demand. Any supply above this, prices will drop. Any supply below this, prices will rise.

We only 4% of the required supply.

So, it is going to be a sellers market with upward price pressure for quite awhile, around 600 years out.

#100 Islander on 10.22.21 at 8:21 pm

I don’t disagree with your observations ,Garth, but let’s not be too hard on Stew Young who’s been mayor of Langford since he was ´12’ (or thereabouts) and who by the way looks a lot older than the above pic!
Langford, formerly known as ´Dogpatch’ is certainly a going concern.
Lots of risky real estate decisions made over the years and I imagine lots of happy home owners too.
The municipality took enormous risks in supporting development of Bear Mountain Resort and surrounding area.
Major investors (eg. Len Barrie) have crashed and burned over the decades. Google ‘ Highlander/ Elevate/ and the latest mega incarnation ´One Bear Mountain’ .
The municipality of Langford is responsible for infrastructure in the BMt. area – mega bucks for such a small population/tax base.
Contrast Langford-land of every box store – with the neighbouring municipality of ‘Highlands’! Night and day.

However, try finding a decent one bedroom for rent in Langford for under $1300-good luck to you!

So point taken and yes we are nuts!

#101 Balanced and Diversified on 10.22.21 at 8:24 pm

60% ETH

40% BTC

#102 VladTor on 10.22.21 at 8:42 pm

Garth…to have twenty or more people move into the lot next door, with six dogs, ten vehicles and five tattooed boyfriends.

*******
AMAZING sarcasm! I’d added …. twenty cats…
I was laughing like a baby. Garth, THANK YOU! I will smiling when will go to my bed tonight.

But you know what, NOBODY would like to take real action to decrease prices and fix housing problem. I’m thinking that Canada has special bubble made from stainless steel – never will blow out! Just pressure inside this special (never seen before in Universe history) housing bubble in Canada will be increasing year after year before the revolution of the homeless folk.

#103 Fiendish Thingy on 10.22.21 at 8:51 pm

The Langford plan sounds like a recipe for municipal bankruptcy. Wonder what the taxpayers who already own homes think of being on the hook for this money think about this program?

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.21 at 9:06 pm

@#122 Ponzie Putsch
” Time to replace all health care workers, who don’t seem to care about the well being of their patients,”

++++
Considering the shortage of workers……
Where are we going to find these mythical health care workers?

#105 Dolce Vita on 10.22.21 at 9:26 pm

Was thinking last post I should have done $ Median and $ Averages per person + Observations on Assets, Debt, Net Worth of the Under 35’s – things that stuck out to me:

https://i.imgur.com/gUK5N1Y.png

1. 43/44% of them have RRSPs &/or TFSAs though not big bucks but they’re just starting out – a good thing. You got thru to them here Garth.

2. 7% of them have stocks = deep MISTRUST of Mr. Market…you have your work cut out trying to convince this crowd Garth.

3. 41% own RE and that is where most of their wealth is.

4. BONUS, 15% of them are Entrepreneurs/Self-Employed!!!

5. 3/4 of them, of #3 above, have a principal residence mortgage which wipes out most of their wealth. Hey, they’re in the early part of the Amortization curve where most of their money is going to pay off interest debt.

6. 5% of them are NUTS with another mortgage, median of $1 MILLION.

7. 43% of them have credit card debt but it’s low.

8. Tree huggers that they are, only 31% have a vehicle loan and its NOT on a Tesla; thus, restoring my FAITH in the Golden Rule:

Talk with hand on heart, spend with hand on pocketbook.

9. And, mystery of mysteries, 5% of them don’t have a bank account…matress, home safe, offshore bank account?

——————

Overall I’d say the Under 35’s doing pretty good.

Well, save the 165,000 crazies with a mortgage on another property worth a median of $1M – Realtors ????

#106 Dr V on 10.22.21 at 9:36 pm

88 Faron -re downtown Nanaimo

” I don’t know the history, but some buffoon made the mistake of gutting part of it and putting in a casino and a mall.”

A good portion of this land is reclaimed from Nanaimo
Harbour. I remember sitting in my dentist’s office as a kid and looking at the moored fish boats. It became parking, now???

The earliest recollection I have is a “Simpson Sears”
in the mid 60s where the casino now sits. This attached
to the old Harbour Park Mall which would contain what became London Drugs. Sears eventually moved North of town and I cannot recall the details of what it all became as I basically left too.

Old downtown Nanaimo was Victoria Crescent (Eaton’s) and Commercial street.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.21 at 9:37 pm

It’s nice to know a Mayor in a small suburb like Langford can toss money on the real estate fire.

When this all goes down…..it’s going down hard.

Great dog photo today!

#108 Philco on 10.22.21 at 9:40 pm

#26 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 2:02 pm
Best dog pic yet! That coming from a cat guy.
———————
Ha thought the same!
My Kittys hilarious she rumbles with the bear that comes by.

#99 Back of Napkin Math on 10.22.21 at 8:20 pm
——————-
Hilarious cause everythings pretty much a ponzi scheme.
LETS GO GREEN = burning fuel bad = we need more peeps to keep the ponzi going = so we need to keep shoveling piles of more peeps into Kanuckle head land…keep those house overflowing & gov in piles of taxes!!!
“Well hell we better carbon tax the shit out of them to fix the global warming issue” now natgas is bad….fire up dose windymills thatle do it….omg retards ar in charge.
Hahahaha im drunk and tis good cailuse some much stupid shit and perps cant even connect the fake dots.
I drink to slow my brain down.
I fricken works!
Nite
Ps if didnt make sence np i hud fun

#109 DON on 10.22.21 at 9:52 pm

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 7:38 pm
#79 DON on 10.22.21 at 5:55 pm
@Ponzius

Compared to Surrey…Langford is way way more pleasant. Nanaimo is well Nanaimo…still better than Surrey.
———–
Gotta disagree, buddy.
I lived everywhere in the last 40 years in the Lower Mainland.
——–
last 6 years in South Surrey ( not White Rock).
Not bad at all.
Gotta do your research, and pick your spot.

******
LOL point taken. Don’t some people call South Surrey…North Delta to save face? I know exactly what’s occurred in the Lower Mainland I spent a good decade in Van watching it take off. And Nanaimo and Langford are still more desirable. We live on Hawaii of the North. Don’t cha know…it rains in Hawaii to.

#110 CL on 10.22.21 at 10:20 pm

They’ve had an “Attainable Homes” program in Calgary for several year now. It is a developer dumping ground where if they build a condo development and it doesn’t sell the city “helps” people get in to what everyone wants which is, apparently, home ownership. They are payment buyers and, of course, end up paying way too much especially over time. I have known a few that went in to this program and have lost their shirts and didn’t realize it until I pointed out the numbers. They can’t sell either because they are too far underwater so they’re trapped. These programs should be illegal.

But, then, municipal politics is all about developers and politicians helping each other so it’s not surprising to hear another “Attainable Homes” project being implemented.

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 10:42 pm

The Las Vegas Golden Knights look rediculous with their golden helmets.

#112 KLNR on 10.22.21 at 10:55 pm

@#87 Fool on 10.22.21 at 6:43 pm
#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 6:04 pm

Blah,blah,blah…

*******

StatsCan bends to the Libs ideologic whims, to the detriment of 51% of Canadians. If they’ll let men pretend they’re women, they’ll pretend that CPI isn’t manipulated to benefit the Libs.

lol, guessing everything is a conspiracy theory with you.
must take a lot of work being that paranoid.

#113 Tmac on 10.22.21 at 11:29 pm

The Great Recession.
The great resignation.
The great pandemic.
Could we see the great remortgaging next?

#114 yvr_lurker on 10.23.21 at 12:04 am

Isn’t this great for a city where there is a housing shortage and prices spiraling out of control? Most of Vancouver is zoned for single family homes. Densifying in a place where everyone wants to be and giving developers an incentive to make more affordable units instead of mansions that are out of the reach of normal people is a good thing, no?

They need to figure out some way to increase supply, densifying in the city makes lots of sense to me.
——–

I am resigned to the idea of densifying. I agree that they need to do something. When they have six families living on a 3600 square foot SFH lot, they can also get much more $$$ from street parking if the Green’s get to power (450.0 per year times 6), and we can all live on top of each other like in South Korea or Hong Kong (where I lived for a few years). This is when I make an exit stage left, sell my 3600 square foot lot for 3.5Mill+ to a developer, retire and get the ^&^&*^&* out and head to the Sunshine Coast or Courtenay to retire in peace from the madness.

Is there a reason why Vancouver needs to “welcome” an increasing number of immigrants each year to further complicate matters… not anti-immigration, but there needs to be a discussion/debate about the detriment of having too many come in a short period.

#115 MalcolmM on 10.23.21 at 12:09 am

It isn’t the city of Langford that will provide funding for this idiotic proposal, developers will “pay” for it. Of course this will simple push up the prices of the un subsidized units.

#116 fishman on 10.23.21 at 12:09 am

The most powerful storm in history coming Sunday? Never has a storm with such low pressure moved this far south to the waters immediately offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Their seeing 942hPa central pressure out there.This is an unbelievable never been seen stomach churning number. Might be a good time to add a few extra tie up lines. The model says it’ll hit our coast at 951 hPa. The lowest central pressure on record off our coast is 950hPa.

#117 Lead Paint on 10.23.21 at 12:13 am

#10 OK, Doomer on 10.22.21 at 1:15 pm

I think you missed the point. The Netflix CEO did stand up to them, and not cow down to the woke mob. Only a small group of employees protested and were ignored.

You should be supporting the CEO in not bowing down to them. Your action will register as a protest against his support of Dave Chapelle… and supporting the protestors.

#118 Lead Paint on 10.23.21 at 12:15 am

#10, more here:
https://www.thecharlottepost.com/news/2021/10/22/arts-and-entertainment/netflix-defends-dave-chappelle-special-on-transgender-jokes/

#119 yvr_lurker on 10.23.21 at 12:15 am

#31 Ponzius Pilatus
—–

Good job. Horgan and his gang have done a really respectable job and I do not have complaints. The mayor (a different version of NDP, and driven by ideological dogma) is a nutbar and has to go. We agree on this. I am working hard in my neighbourhood to raise the word. Worst mayor that I have seen since being in Vancouver from the late 1980s. Harcourt the best.

#120 Lead Paint on 10.23.21 at 12:27 am

#19 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 1:36 pm

Your best post in a long time. Lack of trust, or a ‘shared truth’, is really the biggest problem we face as a species.

I think digital media, including television, started awarding charming and/or loud and/or shameless people with attention and then power, over competent and decent people. We are reaping the rewards of that.

Need to change that phenomenon or end up beating each to death other with sticks and rocks.

#121 Lead Paint on 10.23.21 at 12:41 am

#23 Dolce Vita on 10.22.21 at 1:53 pm

Seems to make a strong case for natural immunity. So why are we firing people who already survived covid, and banning them from traveling?

Also, are the defining what ‘protection’ means? Just antibody count, or T-Cell memory?

fyi – I was in Rome in July and couldn’t for the life of me find how to park at my hotel “NH Collec”on Roma Palazzo Cinquecento”. I ended up making a wrong turn and being the only non-taxi in a sea of taxis in the taxi-only area at Roma Termini. Pretty awkward while I slowly moved my way through lanes of taxis picking up rides in my rental car (that was clearly not a taxi). I was stuck in for about 20 minutes.

Actually the drive from the airport to Termini (downtown Rome) took less time than figuring out how to park at my hotel.

Sure enough, Hertz sent me a $50 ticket two months later.

But I can’t read Italian, so it may be instead a ticket for when I didn’t have a ticket/receipt at a toll booth exiting the highway.

Fun times. I visited Castellabate, a beautiful town and wonderful people.

Okay, my last comment for the day!

#122 Dr V on 10.23.21 at 12:48 am

86 Nonplused

“And who wants to live in Langford? Ferries are expensive and time consuming.”

It puzzles me when the first thing that people worry about is using the ferry. It’s not exactly a small island.
You dont have to leave it very often, hardly at all unless
you want live pro sports and big entertainment.

If you want to visit family in Alberta, there are 4 decent airports.

#123 westcdn on 10.23.21 at 2:43 am

Remember this quit well. I was sitting in airport department area with my daughter. She was a brilliant red head with freckles and green eyes at the time. She was 2. Anne of Green Gables type of gal.

Then a load of Japanese passengers came through. They thought my daughter was charming and took pictures. The lead guy picked her up – put her down or you going to feel pain. Never came to that as he gave her to me.

My wife returned. She was amazed by the number of people that surrounded me and Jenny. She laughed.
Fun stuff though I wasn’t fooling with pain.

I am trying to get a grip on markets. I could have done better but then is history to write. I will continue to seek. Hopefully I will find more winners than losers. I do find winners but then I am a minnow in a large ocean.

#124 TurnerNation on 10.23.21 at 5:27 am

The man-made (globalists) Supply Chain/Port and Shipping Container crisis. Nice first person analysis here:

https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1451543776992845834
“Yesterday I rented a boat and took the leader of one of Flexport’s partners in Long Beach on a 3 hour of the port complex. Here’s a thread about what I learned”

— How does it feel, living in a Former First World Country? As it is wound down.

.Business group warns of mass layoffs and ‘catastrophic’ supply chain disruptions from Biden’s vaccine mandate(cnn.com)


Life in Kanada. But the hospital capacity guys!

.First Nation in B.C. closing its only long-term care facility due to shortage of vaccinated staff (cbc.ca)

— Weekend miscellaney. Seen elsewhere. That Freedom Tower at WTC in NYC..someone did an analysis and compared its dimensions – of each section – against a common object. What common object might this tower be modelled after? Why a needle syringe. Freedom = needles? Get it yet?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/One_world_trade_center_august_2019.jpg/1200px-One_world_trade_center_august_2019.jpg

#125 Under then radar on 10.23.21 at 5:34 am

Beautiful dog.
House lust is never going away and so goes the deeply indebted stressed out folks working to pay for it all. Tough sledding Along the 400 series from over crowded Cookie cutter subdivisions in the middle of nowhere where it’s a million bucks and a car and a lawn mower won’t fit in the garage .

#126 We're headed for a meltdown on 10.23.21 at 6:15 am

Are: Vancouver Council max dev proposition.

https://barzelai.ca/blog/f/fsr-is-the-most-important-thing-to-know-about-zoning-bylaws

Ergo: in a nutshell, with standard lot sizes being 33×122 in most areas. The proposal of 6 units per lot of FSR ( floor space ratio) = max 2416 sq ft to be divided into 402 SQ ft units….can you imagine ? Larger lots 50 x 120 X’s .6 FSR would put lots into the multi-million category. The crackpot councillors haven’t done the math. And 6 units on a wood frame? Freaking crazy.

#127 MPAC assessments on 10.23.21 at 7:10 am

Nobody seems to be talking about potential MPAC assessments once you buy a property. Some of the properties I’ve looked at recently haven’t been assessed since 2016. One in particular had the potential for a massive increase in property taxes once sold. That’s something to consider. Just sayin’

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 7:58 am

@#126 meltdown

“Ergo: in a nutshell, with standard lot sizes being 33×122 in most areas. The proposal of 6 units per lot of FSR ( floor space ratio) = max 2416 sq ft to be divided into 402 SQ ft units….can you imagine ?”

+++=
Yep.
Pack 4 to 6 times as many wood framed buildings on a postage stamp and sit and wait for the inevitable earthquake…..and the fires.

They should save the ridiculous flitting around the lightbulb, just cut to the chase and rezone everywhere in the city to 60 floor, concrete residential towers so the invading Chinese armies will feel right at home.

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 8:11 am

@#123 westcdn
“Then a load of Japanese passengers came through. They thought my daughter was charming and took pictures.”

+++
About 35 years ago my sis , husband and kids visited Van.
They wanted to see the tacky tourist stuff.
Eventually ran out of places I could think of so I took them to the Blodel Conservatory.
We arrived. Walked up to the entrance and a bus load of Japanese tourists pulled in.
My nephew was 2, blonde, blue eyed chubby little kid.
“Kewpi-san! Kewpi-san! Was screamed from the bus….hordes of Japanese POURED off the bus in a laughing, jostling, arms and legs mob of camera wielding frenzy.
“Kewpi-san!” and they completely surrounded us snapping pics and pinching chubby cheeks.
My sister was watching with bemusement while her chubby 2 year old as the main attraction, was glowering at all these cheek pinchers.
They all got their photos and left like whirling dervishes.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.21 at 8:16 am

@#116 fishman
“The most powerful storm in history coming Sunday? Never has a storm with such low pressure moved this far south to the waters immediately offshore of the Pacific Northwest.”

+++

Yeah.
I’ve been watching that approach and the weather announcers have been blithely calling it a “bad series of fronts”…… just another winter storm.

It will be interesting Sunday night/Monday am.
The rivers, creeks and ground are already saturated.

#131 Penny Henny on 10.23.21 at 9:01 am

Oh Garth, you’re gonna get dinged.

Premier Tim Houston has instructed Finance Minister Allan MacMaster to implement a deed transfer tax on any property purchased by individuals who do not pay taxes in Nova Scotia.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-nova-scotia-eyeing-taxes-for-homebuyers-coming-from-outside-the/

How do you know where I pay taxes? Just more politicians floundering. – Garth

#132 Jack Manning on 10.23.21 at 9:10 am

Garth, I know you don’t like gold but gold prices is going much higher, $2,500 an ounce Canadian dollars by the next 6 months, $3,000 an ounce Canadian dollars in 12 months, $3,500 an ounce Canadian dollars in 18 months, $4,000 an ounce Canadian dollars in 24 months.

I remember all the gold doubters in 2000 when I bought 1,800 ounces at $335 an ounce Canadian dollars and now it is $2,200 an ounce Canadian dollars.

Then sell and take your gains (after 21 long years, minus tax). Your price forecast is fantasy. – Garth

#133 Dharma Bum on 10.23.21 at 9:54 am

The current fascination with Tesla is akin to the excitement and marvel of yesteryear around the Model T.

There is a lot of criticism of the company and Elon Musk, but the truth is that this young man and his innovative corporation are paving the way for the future of automotive technology.

The Teslas on the road today will be in the automotive museums and history books of tomorrow. They will be seen as quaint, primitive versions of a technologically brilliant form of personal transportation used by everyone. Future versions of this vehicle will be unimaginably advanced.

I shake my head at the cynical critics of Tesla and Musk. I guess it’s a manifestation of short sightedness, jealousy, or just the social media induced disease of hatred and vitriolic spewing. Just plain stupidity. Twitter heads.

Whatever Elon Musk’s underlying motives might be are ultimately irrelevant. He will go down in history as the creator and entrepreneurial driver of the mode of personal transportation that will be virtually universal in the future.

Elon Musk is today’s Henry Ford. A man of questionable morality but a genius, innovator, and game changer none the less.

https://www.motorcities.org/story-of-the-week/2019/the-ford-model-t-was-an-iconic-automobile

#134 Dragonfly 58 on 10.23.21 at 11:33 am

Dharma Bum, I don’t think you have the Model T story right in your mind.
The excitement and marvel stage of the automobile was several years before the introduction of the Model T. In fact Ford produced a number of quite sucessfull models of cars before the introduction of the “T” in 1909. And many other manufacturers prodeced cars far more advanced than the Model T.
Fords place in history is that the Model T was a very simple , but well engineered car, that was by the standards of the day a very good value for money.
Other cars were head and shoulders better, but sold for a lot more money.
Tesla on the other hand is a very expensive car , particularly on the Canadian market.
My Hyundai Accent has way more in common with the Model T than any Tesla.
By the way , I own a 1914 Model T.

#135 Sail Away on 10.23.21 at 11:38 am

#132 Jack Manning on 10.23.21 at 9:10 am

I remember all the gold doubters in 2000 when I bought 1,800 ounces at $335 an ounce Canadian dollars and now it is $2,200 an ounce Canadian dollars.

——–

So you dropped $600k at the exact lowest low in 40 years?

How prescient. Such foreknowledge. You’re in good company with all the internet investors who also went all-in at the March 2020 low.

#136 Dragonfly 58 on 10.23.21 at 12:34 pm

The other problem as I understand it is that Tesla will not supply any repair parts. Service and repair only at Tesla themselves. Depending on where you live that may be a serious drawback.
Not sure if this is still the case, but as recently as a year or two ago any Tesla in Western Canada that had body damage was almost 100% a write off. The cars had to be returned to Tesla in the U.S.A. for body damage repairs. Not a practical reality so cars with relatively light damage were junk.

#137 Touchy Subject on 10.23.21 at 1:29 pm

I did not know how much gold scares central banks and their dividend bank shares, stock market pushers because their the biggest financial, money manipulators based on a artificial low interest rates, way understated inflation rates, gold, sliver, other precious metal manipulation through the comex.

PMs don’t scare anybody. Except people who hold them and lose money while collecting zero income. – Garth

#138 this is how they getcha on 10.23.21 at 1:43 pm

They will make you declare where you live and pay taxes, just like they do with property taxes in Ontario. This is how they are going to get their $10,000 to $15,000 deed tax on out of province purchasers and residents in Nova Scotia.

#139 Bort on 10.23.21 at 8:08 pm

Bond yields are set by the market, which the CB does not control. They are rising and likely to continue doing so while inflationary pressures augment. – Garth

QE brings bids to bond markets that would not exist otherwise, suppressing yields. How is this not controlling interest rates?