Future shock

For a few months the Nobel Prize-winning macroeconomists in the steerage section have told us rates will never rise. Pshaw. It’s more proof even a golden retriever can post here with creds.

Yes, bond yields are rising. We showed you the charts. Inflation is running hot. Employment numbers are huge. The stock market just hit a record on Bay Street. The supply chain is busted. Gas is ridiculous. Corporate profits are running 80% above estimates. The central bank, kids, has completely run out of excuses for not raising rates. And up they shall go.

In fact, thanks to the bond market, mortgages are already on the move. Again.

On October 4th, for example, TD upped the benchmark five-year fixed rate by a third of a point, to just under 2.4%. Today – merely 17 days later (Oct 21) – it went up again, to just under 2.6%. That’s an increase of half a point, or 30% from where it sat last month. In fact, all of the fixed-rate terms have become costlier. More to come.

The impact on real estate prices or sales will not be immediate, especially since buyers still need to clear the stress test at a far higher rate. But we have now seen the end of sub-2% fixed-rate loans. It’s reasonable to think that never again in your lifetime will they return. If they do, it would mean we have (a) another pandemic or (b) a quasi-depression.

Rates can only rise. Get used to this. Ignore those who led you astray. The cost of money is not regulated by ‘the government’ and even the central bank is powerless in the face of the bond market, where investors are demanding a premium to protect them against inflation. Hence, higher yields.

In early September the five-year Government of Canada bond was yielding 0.774%. As I write this, it’s at 1.325%. That’s essentially a doubling in five weeks. Impossible to ignore or brush aside.

Meanwhile the official inflation rate of 4.4% has blown past the Bank of Canada’s 1-3% target range and is the highest in 18 years. But we all understand that’s a bogus Frankenumber. In reality, the cost of living has exploded higher as the virus threat diminishes. Covid caused the whole world to slow, or stop. Now amid surging demand, prices are racing higher. Soon taxes will add to that. It’s unstoppable.

By the way, here’s what the change over the last few weeks means. With a $600,000 mortgage (about average now in urban areas) payments at 1.99% for a five-year fixed would be $2,537. At the new rate of 2.59%, they increase by $200. The real impact comes over the 60 month term as the total amount of interest paid jumps from $54,779 to $71,623. And higher rates mean slower debt repayment. So with the new rate the borrower pays almost $20,000 more in interest yet ends up owing $6,200 more at renewal. Not good.

Of course if higher mortgage costs slow the market, punt some buyers and end up stalling prices in the city plus (along with the end of WFH) diminish them in the hinterland, new buyers can expect an equity drain. Gone will be the days when in-the-bag price increases wiped away the rookie mistake of paying too much for a property. In short, rates are a game changer. There is (and has always been) an inverse relationship between the cost of money and the price of a house. We rode it up. Now we ride it down.

What comes next?

Well, more increases. Everybody on the Street now believes the BoC will hike four times in 2022, with the first one coming in just a few months. Some say eight increases are likely in the next two dozen months (or sooner). The CB rate of a quarter point will be 2.25% or more. Five-year mortgages will be 4%. People renewing a $600,000 loan will see monthly payments rise by $600 (compared with a 1.99% rate) and interest paid over the term will soar to $112,000 – more than double.

The context of this is relatively awesome. We little house-lusty beavers owe $1.76 trillion in mortgages. We added $155 billion in the past year. Actually, mortgage debt is swelling by about $12 billion a month, or $400 million daily. The most ever. The fastest in decades. By the way, the entire economy of Canada is about $2 trillion in size, so you can see what we’re doing to ourselves.

In response, more people are taking VRMs – variable-rate mortgages. They float. When short-term bond yields raise, or the central bank jacks its key rate, VRMs immediately increase the cost of borrowing. These days they’re still available below 2%, but that is absolutely destined to change. Payments will be less now, and more later unless the mortgage is converted to a fixed-rate term along the way. Good luck figuring that out.

So, borrow long, save bigly and brace for renewal.

Now let’s hear from the laureates.

About the picture: “Humphrey is a rescue from Texas,” writes Saul, “he lives with us in Toronto. We love how he crosses his paws.”

129 comments ↓

#1 short horses on 10.21.21 at 1:45 pm

Just to confirm, rising rates are good for preferred shares? Anything else?

#2 Proud CERBian on 10.21.21 at 1:47 pm

Save CERBia!

Benefits must be extended, FOREVER!

#3 Mary on 10.21.21 at 1:59 pm

It is about time. Basically, in the GTA, those with $800,000, $900,000 mortgage balances from the last say 6 or 12 months can see easily a $1,300 to $1,400 a month in higher mortgage payments, property taxes, water, gas, heating, electricity, insurance, food and many cost increases, inflation by say 2023, 2024 the latest.

Where are people going to get another $22,000 to $28,000 in gross, taxable income to pay for all these higher expenses, costs, taxes in the coming future? They are not, they are going to borrow more and more and good luck to them.

#4 Grandv!ew on 10.21.21 at 2:00 pm

Rates are definitely going up. Customarily 0.25 % each increase. Writing is on the wall for mortgage holders to act accordingly and either prepare (somehow) or exit at the peak. It will take the time for this to play out but early bird thing applies here…

Inflation at 4.4% or increased rates.

What is actually bigger problem for indebted. In either case cost of living is going up. If you are not able to realize the gains from the house and the cost of holding is going up, as well as the cost of living how do you proceed on this path.

#5 Doug in London on 10.21.21 at 2:00 pm

While I’m not exactly a laureate, I’ll share a few thoughts. In a past topic, bonds and bond funds were mentioned to add stability to a portfolio. When rates rise, they will get cheaper. As for a downside, the news is out this Liberal government has gone on a world class borrowing binge in the last year or so. Higher rates will mean the interest charges will go up. We could see a return to the cutbacks of 1995 with Jean Chrétien as Prime Minister and Paul Martin as Finance Minister. Say has anyone heard that new tune The connection is made by Elastica? I just heard it on Toronto station 640 AM The Hog.

#6 TurnerNation on 10.21.21 at 2:00 pm

#171 Re-Cowtown “Our new mayor in Calgary wasted no time in saying that she’ll be announcing a “Climate Emergency” in Calgary shortly.”

— I’ve been hearing for a long time that this global New System will be rolled out at the CITY/local levels?

— As this is a financial blog I always couch things in terms of Money. Your hard assets – they are coming for those. Wait till the Climate/Carbon Fines, Energy Audits.

.Winnipeg councillor proposes plan to gear tickets to income (ctv.ca)

— Is this the soft sell for something bigger? Get your hard assets out of Kanada now.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/indigenous/land-acknowledgments-what-s-wrong-with-them-1.6217931
“… the issue boils down to the concept of land back. “Are they ready to give us back our land? There has to be absolute action behind it,” she said.

—-

Almost back to normal guys!! Been calling for a UBI in 2022 for a while now.

.CRB expiring Saturday, to be replaced with COVID-19 lockdown benefit (ctvnews.ca)

————–

– Case in point. War on Small Business.
The State still is limiting the capacity of Restaurants. Because you know, Science in Kanada.

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/10/toronto-furious-sludgelike-substance/
“She says the government was even called around Christmas on suspicion she had too many people in her store, and that someone in the area has changed their WiFi network name to something derogatory about Bobbette & Belle.”

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2021/10/patios-toronto-shut-down/
“Curb lane patios have been an interesting experiment in Toronto but next month, they’re going to have to come down. Restaurants and bars will be forced to remove their curb lane patios no later than Nov. 10”

#7 "NUTS" on 10.21.21 at 2:24 pm

I’m tired. Tired of hearing people demanding lifelines to save them from poor choices made in the face of well-documented, obtainable information and guidance from those with decades of data. How many tax-funded programs are going to be born in the aftermath of this debt crisis? Funded of course by those who were responsible with their debt load. At the risk of sounding draconian, it’s time to thin the herd.

If you were foolish enough to dive into turbulent waters, you should have to figure out how to get to shore on your own.

#8 4% mortgage rate is too low on 10.21.21 at 2:38 pm

Only a 4%, 5 year mortgage rate? The debt junkies are getting off easy. My spouse and I had 3 mortgages in our lifetime, my first house 9.375%, my second house 8.35% and my business, autoshop 7.99%. They all came with fees, service charges, early payment penalties etc. and limitations on payments, how much and when. I think to teach the lesson once and for good with these debt junkies here in Canada we need at least a 7.5% to 8% mortgage rate for 7.5 years straight, 2021 remaining to end of 2029.

By the way, these were the mortgage rates just in the year 2000, this is not back in the scary 70’s, 80’s, even to mid 90’s where 9% to 22% mortgage rates were in full effect. If you get a 3% or 4% mortgage rate, you are getting off easy.

#9 TurnerNation on 10.21.21 at 2:41 pm

— Control over Travel/Movement. Yep, not going away.

.Morocco bans UK flights due to Covid cases rising (www.bbc.co.uk)

.Moscow to impose strictest lockdown measures since June 2020(reuters.com)

But: .Sunshine and Liberty: Florida’s per capita Covid rate is now second-lowest in the U.S.A. (city-journal.org)


— Weekend Rant:
Kanada is lost. Look at these photos – from a few hundred clicks south of us – which hit my workplace inbox. Notice anything? Nope. There is nothing to notice.
https://securitytraders.org/about/sta-photo-album/

But if this were Kanada they’d be muzzled, 6-6-6 feet apart, and scanning a QR code for permission from the STATE to go about their daily lives. This is North Korea-level stuff. But Kanadians love it.

— This weblog gave print to that ‘stupid leaked email’. Well today Kanada just released it’s Travel Health [sic] pass.
This is a permanent state of electronic lockdowns. Do you think only the two shots will be the requirement?
From that leaked email:

“The individual would also have to agree to partake in the COVID-19 and COVID-21 vaccination schedule, which would provide the individual with unrestricted travel and unrestricted living even under a full lock down (through the use of photo identification referred to as Canada’s HealthPass) .”

– These people did not wear their masks. No expenses spared tracking them down. How many hours were spent? Justice in Kanada:
https://saskatoonpolice.ca/news/2021552
” Saskatoon Police Service is requesting public assistance in identifying a number of people who attended a September 20th election night gathering.
Investigators have also developed images of 15 individuals who were present at the event and were in violation of the PHO.

#10 Linda on 10.21.21 at 2:48 pm

Our inflation ‘frankenumber’. Too true. So what I’m wondering is, if the feds are trying to “smooth out” inflation over the longer term by posting ridiculously low official monthly inflation numbers, would that mean that we could see official inflation in the 4+ percent range over a longer period of time? The belief being that these higher numbers won’t last once the pandemic is in the rear view mirror – or will they? Any guesses as to how long before prices stabilize & official inflation rates return to pre-pandemic levels?

#11 Inequity on 10.21.21 at 2:56 pm

Now is the time to pop that popcorn and watch who is part of the change and who is run over by it. :P

#12 XGRO and chill on 10.21.21 at 2:57 pm

I’m not a Nobel Laureate, but to look at this graph and not see a trend of lowering/flattening is a bit rich.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/interest-rate
(click “MAX” for timeframe)

Can rates go up? Yep. Can they go up a lot? Nope.

#13 Dolce Vita on 10.21.21 at 3:02 pm

Different country. Just as RE crazed.

“China’s housing market slump has intensified in recent weeks as … Existing-home sales plunged 63% from a year earlier in the first 17 days of October.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/china-home-rut-deepens-as-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-2015

So far, very minor price drops. Cash strapped developers trying to sell property at lower prices. Not many biting. 1 large developer has gone under so it’s not just Evergrande with cash problems. Apparently buyers scared to buy new. PRC also looking to punish speculators, house flippers etc.

——————-

If you can’t login to Bloomberg, ODDLY conspiracy ZeroHedge echoes the above article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-home-prices-drop-first-time-2015-existing-home-sales-crash-63

Of course Tyler Durden could not resist at the end: “a deja vu moment from the days surrounding the Lehman bankruptcy.” Tyler, would not be Tyler otherwise.

#14 Soviet Capitalist on 10.21.21 at 3:02 pm

There have been other up-blips in interest rates before.
Garth, what is your gut feeling about it – for how long the uptick in bond rates will last?

#15 the jaguar on 10.21.21 at 3:04 pm

About those VRM’s…….
Remember too that the compounding is not the same so slight difference in effective rate, but most importantly as rates rise you will be growing your amortization without an upward payment adjustment.

Why are some people on this blog unable to make their point or counterpoint without name calling? Is it really necessary to do it by referring to others as ‘idiots’etc?
Different views are allowed if I read Garth’s notes correctly…

#16 Zee on 10.21.21 at 3:05 pm

I refinanced six months ago and took 1.79% 5-year fixed. People told me to go lower with VRM. “No thanks” I said.

Because I was not greedy, I have 1.79% until 2026 and the VRM crew is panicking.

#17 Paulfrompickering on 10.21.21 at 3:06 pm

The question isn’t if the rates will go up, or even if it will make life more difficult. The question is will the rate hikes / cost of living increasing be hard enough on enough people to have a tangible effect on the housing market?

#18 Quintilian on 10.21.21 at 3:14 pm

“Now let’s hear from the laureates.”

Sure, I’ll take the bait.

The “threat” of rising mortgage rates will actually spur demand, because greater fools will be enticed to rush in before rates go up, the pumpers will make sure of that as they will be firing up the hype machine as usual.

Rising prices, and running out of greater fools will eventually pop the housing bubble.

But the BOC will not be caught with a needle in its hands when the bubble pops.

With puny increase the bank rate will take decades to normalize.

Trillions of dollars in bonds earning less than zero will keep maturing and be recycled into the system.

Remember, it’s ok to earn less than zero on bonds, when the rest of the portfolio is making spectacular gains because of the low borrowing rates.

#19 Dolce Vita on 10.21.21 at 3:17 pm

Good you used cold hard cash in your assertions today Garth rather than obtuse %’s and their doubling or whatever.

If things continue in the economy with inflation and they will (queue coming wage demands) expect rates to increase more as bond holders demand more of a risk premium.

This will to end well for many.

Expect Cdn wealth to go down as RE prices fall. THAT is the primary asset they hold.

That will only exacerbate matters as people feel less wealthy and will spend less accordingly.

If this inflation persists for a few years, I believe it will, then Cdn RE will have met its match and correct by far more than has been seen in decades.

#20 Brett in Calgary on 10.21.21 at 3:20 pm

There’s going to be some grumpy faces in a couple years. “Houses only go up”!

#21 IHCTD9 on 10.21.21 at 3:23 pm

#138 Philco on 10.21.21 at 2:43 pm
#130 IHCTD9 on 10.21.21 at 12:52 pm
—————-
Indeed!
The wives got 6 brothers and all engineers from Asia… Great peeps and then theres a whole pile of others I know….lovem but clueless and passive.
Conclusion Ponzo has no scope.
________

Yep – great folks. But brand new immigrants being well-off? Not unless they were exceedingly rich and privileged in the home country, and very well connected here. Knowing their rights? Half of born Canadians don’t even know them. Well educated? Yes they’ll be educated because you’d never get into the country otherwise – but they will have to re-do their educations here in Canada if they want to get anywhere – and even then, they do not proceed directly to “well-off”. It’ll take a long time.

At this point I’d say a solid majority of born Canadians are connected to at least one immigrant thru marriage, family, peers or friends. This really ain’t a secret. Immigrants outnumber born Canadians in the GTA. Last I checked the average salary for an immigrant was under 40K/yr. It takes a couple decades to get well-off, and that was starting out in the “Old Canada” where your prospects for achieving the Canadian Dream were much, much higher than they are now. Depending on what study you read, 30-40% of all immigrants to Canada end up leaving within 10-20 years IIRC. It isn’t easy, and the road ain’t paved with gold – unless you live in Ponzie’s ‘hood of course.

#22 Nonplused on 10.21.21 at 3:26 pm

Hmm now our new mayor thinks she gets to decide who can be a counselor and who cannot.

https://calgary.citynews.ca/2021/10/21/calgary-mayor-elect-chu-resign/

It’s going to be an interesting 4 years.

(Yes, I know Chu has dirt on him. That’s not my point. My point is that there is due process in law and also the minor point of elections. I also don’t know how serious the charges against Chu were or why criminal charges were never filed, or why he was not even dismissed from the police force.)

#23 Flop… on 10.21.21 at 3:28 pm

So, I guess the big news real estate wise in Vancouver is the mayor pushing again for developers to be able to put six dwellings (units) on a block normally reserved for a single family house.

Developers, and city hall for that matter, lick their lips with anticipation.

It gets wrapped up in Harry Potters Cloak Of Affordability, but critics point to the duplex debacle mainly unfolding in East Vancouver as an example of what is likely to happen.

Trumpeted as an affordable option originally, duplexes and even fourplexes apparently aren’t making a dent in providing reasonable priced housing.

The developers typically aim for something distressed around the million mark and build the duplex and try to get north of 1.5 each side, so the bulldozer goes for a million and the buyer has to fork over another 5-600k for a shiny new option.

This doesn’t help affordability, but is good for the realtors and construction workers among other groups.

Who’s to know how crazy this is going to all get.

One minute city hall says there’s too many cars in suburbia, next minute they want to densify the side streets.

Maybe they should just cut to the chase and put us all in assigned bunk bed…

M47BC

#24 New Normal on 10.21.21 at 3:28 pm

The siren of higher interest rates has sung out for over a decade on this blog. Apart from minuscule increases prior to the pandemic that where not even felt, nothing has materialized. In the mean time, the prices have shot up 100-200% depending on where you are living.

Let’s face it. Once the inflationary pressures rise, the government implements the CMHC cap rise, extends mortgages to 30 plus years, and creates the under 40 TFSA for housing that all but makes the increases muted. Add in 500k new immigrants, temporary foreign workers, and international students a year, and the inflation is hugely eaten by an insatiable demand that has maintained its hunger for two decades despite the blips. And now add in the bank of mom and dad supporting kids after a 200% increase in their own equity, and the shift to intergenerational pooling of resources and living, inflationary increases will have zero impact. Finally, lets acknowledge the ever teasing nature of the feds with turning one and off the bond buying spree whenever there is a hint of a soft economy.

Too many people have the mindset that Canadian buyers are two people buying a house independently and actually proving they are ‘adults’. The reality is that now the majority of first time buyers have mommy and daddy’s help with down payments, land transfers and living expense costs as pathetic and sad as that is. This new normal keeps the party going as parents can draw down on equity after two decades of growth despite inflationary pressures.

Sorry, but when real estate constitutes 25% of your GDP, and all governments submit to the demands of the real estate lobby,(cartel), this party is never ending.

Just like the pull back from the hinterland never happened with a return to work, and return to work has not been replaced with remote and hybrid work, the sales next spring will push prices on their ever upward trajectory.

Those who waited, sat on the sidelines, and were financially prudent have missed a once in a generation opportunity and will be forever cemented in the new land based feudalism.

Always nice to hear from a speculator. You are so cute. – Garth

#25 In Dog We Trust on 10.21.21 at 3:30 pm

Deflation was the scary part,,, 4% to 5% inflation for a few years is welcome news… Add to this tons of immigration and the economy size gets better balanced against current debt… Grow Canada, grow…

#26 Forester on 10.21.21 at 3:31 pm

Hey Garth,
What are the chances that the Fed’s extend the mortgage amortization period in a few years to help lusty souls cope with the “Great Millennial Mortgage Rate Reset”. No one saves anymore do they? Isn’t it all about cash flow?

#27 Nonplused on 10.21.21 at 3:32 pm

#12 Dolce Vita on 10.21.21 at 3:02 pm

“Of course Tyler Durden could not resist at the end: “a deja vu moment from the days surrounding the Lehman bankruptcy.” Tyler, would not be Tyler otherwise.”

Ah yes, the character from “Fight Club” who is now as prolific on the internet as a team of 10.

#28 Nonplused on 10.21.21 at 3:37 pm

Finally a green proposal without the sugar coating:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/path-to-a-greener-future-tax-kids-or-just-ban-them-outright

(Humor challenged lefties, note that it is sarcasm.)

#29 Charlie on 10.21.21 at 3:37 pm

But… but… Vancouver realtor and self proclaimed macroeconomic expert Steve Saretsky said rates will never rise???

And when Scotiabank said they would he said “LOL”!!

Are you telling me one of the biggest banks in the nation with teams of highly educated and experienced economists may know more than a guy who slings condos and watched a bunch of YouTube videos??

Unfathomable!!!

#30 Dolce Vita on 10.21.21 at 3:41 pm

#8 TurnerNation

UK in worse shape than the official Gov UK version of cases of about 43K/day.

ZOE, with 4M subscribers inputting data in real time reckons this many cases:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/home3

Typically over the past year or so ZOE v. good predictive and Gov UK numbers eventually catch up to theirs.

Germany and Netherlands have banned flights from UK as well.

———————-

Delta PLUS now at 8-9% of all cases, probably 10% some reckon. Low and slow like its parent Delta. Gaining momentum.

Nobody yet knows if it will be worse then Delta but one thing I do know is that their hospitalizations and deaths are showing a small upswing…coincident with the Delta PLUS upswing.

Not good news. And winter is coming.

I wish them well and oh so miss visiting London a couple times a year, hideous food and all…sadly, my love of the UK will just have to wait.

#31 Budget man on 10.21.21 at 3:54 pm

What would our federal and provincial interest payments look like at those rates? Or are they locked in for good at the lower rates?

#32 IHCTD9 on 10.21.21 at 4:02 pm

The CB rate of a quarter point will be 2.25% or more. Five-year mortgages will be 4%. People renewing a $600,000 loan will see monthly payments rise by $600 (compared with a 1.99% rate) and interest paid over the term will soar to $112,000 – more than double.
____

This would cause actual real damage.

Let’s hope it happens.

#33 Garth's Son Drake on 10.21.21 at 4:21 pm

Wait! An extra $200 per month – but what about those only $200 away from default?

Freeland said all business and income support programs scheduled to expire on Oct. 23 will not be extended.

It won’t be long now.

#34 Joe on 10.21.21 at 4:26 pm

Oh Garth! We all know how this show ends now don’t we? IF (and that’s a big IF) they raise rates they will backtrack as soon as the everything bubble starts to crater. Rinse repeat.

#35 Faron on 10.21.21 at 4:28 pm

#11 XGRO and chill on 10.21.21 at 2:57 pm

Can rates go up? Yep. Can they go up a lot? Nope.

Zoom out:

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/us-interest-rates/

Over the long run, 4% seems to be a sweet spot. AKA, 3.95% higher than now if we’re talking the fed funds rate.

That is huge. – Garth

#36 Armpit on 10.21.21 at 4:28 pm

The recent increase in mortgage rates may temporarily increase home sales in the next few months, but soon will lower house prices and/or sales, especially if it continues to increase.

However, this will not have a great effect on people renewing their mortgages, as they had it at a higher or similar rate 4-5 years ago.

The recent purchasers, up to 2 years ago, will not be affected by the rates until 3-5 years from now. (if they settled on 5yr fixed).

A lot can happen by then.

Will home prices go down to what they were 5 years ago? Not unless we see 5% or more Mortgage rates.

#37 James on 10.21.21 at 4:29 pm

And where will Captain Selfie be when the shit hits the fan?
Apologizing probably, for not stopping this ridiculous housing crises that his government is actually aiding and
abetting.

#38 NoName on 10.21.21 at 4:44 pm

#102 FIFO on 10.21.21 at 8:57 am
#90 NoName on 10.21.21 at 6:20 am
#86 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 12:47 am

Went to my Garmin account and checked the stats for “road cycling” since March 1. 4180km.

Pffft…

Went on my Garmin, Since beginning of the year i have 1.7M steps. Yes that is correct!

Sadly Iam steel morbidly obist…

It’s the input, not the output. Check those hidden sugars – they stick the damn stuff into EVERYTHING!

+1

Funny enough i was listening to this on my way home after work this morning.

https://www.commonwealthclub.org/events/archive/video/which-comes-first-overeating-or-obesity-carbohydrates-insulin-and-metabolic

Came as suggestion in podcast app, damn you spying gargle kayboard.

#39 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.21.21 at 4:56 pm

WILLIAM SHATNER.
Before too long, the giddy realtors riding along with William Shatner into space won’t be waving down at the earthling’s anymore. For far too many realtors, it has been a once in a life time rapid ascension to the big dollars in the sky casino. But all rocket ships eventually come down, some, real hard. Many, will be referred to as “Chinless Wonders,” having grown fat and lazy with all the easy money. What I am calling for in my prediction ” Beware The Ides Of November,” is a rip your face off, weeping salty tears over the grave of the speculative wealth that you thought was your forever cash. Amen Brother.

#40 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:00 pm

#112 Sheesh

I understand what you’re saying.

And that justifies swindling them out of their land how exactly?

I see your corruption on reserve and raise you INCREDIBLE corruption on levels not even imagined by our politicians. How about a few key words for you? Epstein? Opioids? Afghanistan?

Indigenous homeless? I raise you thousands of homeless white – children and all!

You want to talk about Natives relations? How about people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones Sheesh. Take a moment and look around. See that Hellfire missile fired by US drone killing Afghani children a month or two back? Did anyone care, as US leaders declared it righteous strike and correctly carried out?

Back to the point please…let’s not pick on human flaws as a reason why they should be deprived of what is rightfully theirs and what they were swindled out of.

Clearly their claim to the land is recognized without question even under the law that was thrust upon them in the language that wasn’t there.

Let’s not even talk about coercion with which it was done, and that our law sees that as an unlawful act and any contracts signed under coercion and duress are null and void in the first place.

#41 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 5:00 pm

#33 Garth’s Son Drake on 10.21.21 at 4:21 pm
Wait! An extra $200 per month – but what about those only $200 away from default?

Freeland said all business and income support programs scheduled to expire on Oct. 23 will not be extended.

It won’t be long now.
++++++++++++++++

After the Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) expires on Oct. 23 it will be replaced by a targeted benefit that will help those whose work is impacted by COVID-19 lockdowns, the government announced Thursday.
At a news conference, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced that the Canada Worker Lockdown Benefit will go into effect on Oct. 24.
The benefit will provide $300 a week to workers who are subject to a lockdown.
Freeland said the government is taking out “insurance” by creating the new support program in the event of local lockdowns in the future, and that those who are affected by those lockdowns would be able to tap the subsidy program up to the maximum amount for the duration fo the lockdown.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/feds-letting-aid-expire-replacing-with-programs-for-hardest-hit-1.1669661

#42 tkid on 10.21.21 at 5:01 pm

Food manufacturers said they were seeing 14% costs increases 3 months ago. Insiders on reddit said they are now seeing a 38% cost increase with another 34% increase expected in January.

If folks have to decide between putting food on the table and paying the mortgage I expect food will win. I expect helocs will be maxed out, the house(s) remortgaged, and the bank of mom and dad will be tapped until it runs dry. When default for many becomes inevitable, the pain suffered will be felt by many generations.

I am looking at the shortgages in the US and comparing them to shortgages in Canada and I can’t determine why the US’ is so severe when ours are minor. Can anyone remember back to the oil embargo & high inflation of the 70s? Was Canada hit by them as badly as the US?

#43 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:06 pm

#134 westcdn on 10.21.21 at 1:29 pm

It’s OK. Yukon Elvis says equality is the way forward for you! I’m sure if he was in any of the shoes in previous generations, Yukon Elvis would be OK with it.

Anyhow, who cares what happened before I came here? I just bought this $1.5M slanted semi – I have skin in the game, and you can’t have your land back. It doesn’t matter that you had claim or rights.

Those are trampled on, so that others can claim to have them now, today.

Then their leaders grant them to others…maybe, and declare themselves protectors of rights and freedoms.

If you can share a good resource of these Treaties, I’m more and more interested in reviewing them. Currently using The Canadian Encyclopedia mainly.

#44 I'mshort_corpdebt on 10.21.21 at 5:10 pm

Garth, in the near future can you do a post on what some municipalities are proposing for helping out first time buyers. Subsidies to the tune of 75% ??? Are they now wanting to bypass the banks to get the equity?

#45 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:10 pm

#121 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 11:10 am
#104 TVO on 10.21.21 at 9:17 am
#55 Yukon Elvis on 10.20.21 at 8:50 pm

++++++++++++++++++++
Your argument makes sense for someone on LSD.
We are all here now and more are coming. To make it work we all need to have equal rights and benefits and privileges and we all have the responsibility of building a better country for future generations. No special rights or benefits or free lunch based on race or language or religion or gender or whom has been here longer than whom. That only causes strife and division. Equality for all is the only way to go forward. Anything else would be systemic racism.

++++++++++++++++++++

Yukon Elvis,

I hear what you’re saying – but the legal foundation is completely off the kilter in your thinking. How can you not see it?

Imagine this scenario: You sit across a table from a woman. You take out a gun and put it on the table. You say, you will take all she has. She will be yours. Conditions is you give her $5 and some clothing. She will exist at your pleasure. She will agree to this in your language, without any legal rights, or else. You invite a bunch of people over and tell them they can hang.

Now some time passes and you declare everyone can maybe be equal, but on your terms, because you own the place still. You make the rules and the laws.

This is basically what you are arguing.

I recall laughing at the 100 or so years of Canadian history taught in school here. In reference to other nations 1000s of years, it was a total joke. I can see now why those years of history the light is not being shined on. I’m starting to question all I see.

Why are Natives women being murdered? Specifically women? You know, women are creators of new Native lives…mighty inconvenience this is.

Why don’t Natives have water? This is a valid point. We can send a team anywhere in the world and get them water in a day, but Natives are living without water access in Canada? Seriously? In 2021? Isn’t it a human right in Canada? I guess those human rights are for appearances on paper only.

There is a lot wrong about how this country was made. Who is in charge. Who gets to say how things go.

In fact, the very fact that these Treaties are not being questioned in the highest courts is a fascinating point – as if the scrutiny of law would not allow these immoral and fraudulent contracts to stand if a spotlight was placed on them.

When you base a dream on a lie, on fraud, it never ends well. And Canada looks to be built on just that, unfortunately.
++++++++++++++++
Have fun staggering down the endless rabbit hole of systemic racism. Consider trying to build a country in which all people have equal rights and benefits and responsibilities regardless of race or language or country of origin.
++++++++++++++++

Hear, Hear Yukon Elvis!

Let’s built it upon land theft, genocide and human right abuses. Throw a maple leaf on the flag, make everyone pretend we’re one with each other.

#46 Sara on 10.21.21 at 5:14 pm

#137 Gravy Train on 10.21.21 at 2:05 pm

Sara, I just couldn’t resist getting into the fray. I usually just try to ignore these idiots. :)

=================

I hear you.

#47 That Guy on 10.21.21 at 5:18 pm

Ok, so still time to become a real estate salesperson and flog a few houses before the interest rate hikes bite. Point taken.

Now, for my personal spending, I think the advice is this: now it’s time to invest in rate-reset preferreds to cash in on rising rates. No more punishment for being a saver!

#48 BlogDog123 on 10.21.21 at 5:19 pm

re: #3 Mary on 10.21.21 at 1:59 pm

Where are people going to get another $22,000 to $28,000 in gross, taxable income to pay for all these higher expenses, costs, taxes in the coming future? They are not, they are going to borrow more and more and good luck to them.

===
Mary, that’s easy! Just go back to mom and have her cough up the extra cash! She can’t have her precious child sell the house and move into an apartment! Heavens no !!

Some people will become “waiters”, waiting for their parents to die so they inherit their house and sell one of the properties so they can pay the bills.

#49 I"mshort_corpdebt on 10.21.21 at 5:20 pm

0.25% increments? Try 0.05-0.1% with a few stumbles along the way.

#50 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:36 pm

#114 Not Fooled on 10.21.21 at 10:46 am
#104 TVO on 10.21.21 at 9:17 am

“Why are Natives women being murdered? Specifically women? You know, women are creators of new Native lives…mighty inconvenience this is”

************

Indigenous women, like all women, are mostly killed by their current or ex-partners. So Indigenous women, who suffer 3.5X more violence on reserve than women who live elsewhere, are killed predominantly by Indigenous men.

Most stranger murders of women are related to street prostitution, amongst which Indigenous women are sadly over-represented. Maybe focus on the men who use prostitutes, many of whom you’ll be shocked to discover are not white.

More Indigenous fetuses are aborted each year than Indigenous women are murdered. Who’s genociding who?

************

Can’t argue with anything you are noting.

All of it is terrible and solvable in my view.

Why is there poverty in a rich land like this? There is only so much. If others snorf up all the resources and wealth, what’s left for the majority? For the Natives who’s land is exploited for profit while they are in poverty?

Let me be clear on the point of land ownership again. This is not even a discussion – it’s a fact.

British and Canadian authorities recognized that indigenous peoples already on the lands had a prior claim, aboriginal title, which was not extinguished by the arrival of the Europeans. In consequence, all of Canada, save a section of southern Quebec exempted by the Royal Proclamation of 1763, is subject to Aboriginal title.

Just like the homeless, it is not a problem anyone wants to solve. Because it is hard. Because it would require affordable housing. And how can you square affordable housing with houses with a 8.9 x 10.7 foot master bedrooms selling for $1.4M? How can you square that as you sell leaseholds to stolen land to gullible people who will go in debt beyond the tips of their hair-sprayed hair to buy it?

#51 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 5:40 pm

23 Flop

“Trumpeted as an affordable option originally, duplexes and even fourplexes apparently aren’t making a dent in providing reasonable priced housing.”

Hi flop. Had this happen not far from my office, and apparently a surprise to the owner.

Old rented house on approx 55 X100 lot. Burned to ground. City said cant rebuild SFD. Fourplex is minimum according to new bylaw. Not sure how that worked with insurance.

So fourplex it is, pushed up close to street and one side so that driveway can be squeezed down other side and four parking spots in back. Units over 800 sq ft each.
Looks good, but total hard surface now, visitor parking
available on street.

OK for singles, couples and retirees, but what about families? Small units, no yard.

#52 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:43 pm

#116 Dragonfly 58 on 10.21.21 at 10:52 am

Dragonfly, I hear you, and this is criminal.

How did this water get polluted? Industry? Paper mills? Solvents?

How dumped them in your water?

Industry?

I don’t know enough about the story, so I just shoot those points because I’ve heard that record play on the radio before from B.C.

#53 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 6:06 pm

#50 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:36 pm

British and Canadian authorities recognized that indigenous peoples already on the lands had a prior claim, aboriginal title, which was not extinguished by the arrival of the Europeans. In consequence, all of Canada, save a section of southern Quebec exempted by the Royal Proclamation of 1763, is subject to Aboriginal title.
++++++++++
They were drunk Bubba. They were misquoted by the press and recanted the following day. Heads rolled and people were fired. You never mention that part.

#54 kommykim on 10.21.21 at 6:09 pm

RE: #28 Nonplused on 10.21.21 at 3:37 pm
Finally a green proposal without the sugar coating:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/path-to-a-greener-future-tax-kids-or-just-ban-them-outright
(Humor challenged lefties, note that it is sarcasm.)

=======================================

It’s true though. Having kids is the most environmentally destructive thing a couple can do.

#55 Network Admin on 10.21.21 at 6:15 pm

I am more afraid that the rates will go down below zero. With cash used less and less, it is so easy now to create the digital money that will expire, so no longer a problem to make rates below zero.

#56 Faron on 10.21.21 at 6:17 pm

#35 Faron on 10.21.21 at 4:28 pm

#11 XGRO and chill on 10.21.21 at 2:57 pm

Can rates go up? Yep. Can they go up a lot? Nope.

Zoom out:

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/us-interest-rates/

Over the long run, 4% seems to be a sweet spot. AKA, 3.95% higher than now if we’re talking the fed funds rate.

That is huge. – Garth

Agreed. After a decade and a half of very low rates, a 4% fed rate (spitballing that translates to 6% mortgages and 8% HELOCs). Not hard to imagine RBC ads for a 5.99% mortgage. Somewhere between here and there some de-leveraging will be required of over extended Canadians. That will not be pretty.

Not sure where in the rate spectrum TINA dies, but at some point she will. If inflation tamps back down, bonds might start to be good for income again.

Of course, no one knows what will happen.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.21.21 at 6:19 pm

#87 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 12:47 am
43 Ponzie – earlier this year, I hit the reset button on the B trip odometer in my “ego-boost F150”. It was at the beginning of March.

Yesterday the B odo read 3540km. I get around 900km/tank so 4 tanks in over 7 months. Yes its a big tank, and I try to do multiple errands on an outing. Makes sense economically and environmentally.

Went to my Garmin account and checked the stats for “road cycling” since March 1. 4180km.

You see? You can actually have the best of both worlds.
I want to get a bike sticker that says “my other bike is an F150” but that wouldnt be true as I have a few other bikes.
—————-
Haha,
The old “Eco Boost” excuse.
My neighbour bought an F-150, and he knows I’m a tree hugger, so he pointed out the “Eco Boost” label, and raved about the “great” mileage.
Sorry, but if it looks like a truck, drives like a truck and sounds like a truck, it is a TRUCK.
The funny part is, that the truck is supposed to be used as an off-road or utility vehicle, conquering anything that the Great Canadian outdoors can throw at it.
In reality, they spent a lot of time in the drive way, depreciating and rusting away.
But I have to say, they are the cleanest vehicles on the road.
My neighbour is a good car owner, who gently massages and cleans his truck every weekend, using a ladder and the softest chamois money can buy.

#58 Faron on 10.21.21 at 6:21 pm

#23 Flop… on 10.21.21 at 3:28 pm

GET READY FLOP…, IT’S TIME FOR YOUR DAILY DOSE!!!! SAY AHHHHHHHH.

#59 The West on 10.21.21 at 6:28 pm

Hey steerage, your new comment section has arrived:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/21/trump-truth-social-media-platform-tmtg-presentation

HAHAHAHAHA…go get that truth!

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.21.21 at 6:35 pm

#16 Zee on 10.21.21 at 3:05 pm
I refinanced six months ago and took 1.79% 5-year fixed. People told me to go lower with VRM. “No thanks” I said.

Because I was not greedy, I have 1.79% until 2026 and the VRM crew is panicking.
————–
Same here.
And if interest rates are above our Black&Decker portfolio return in 4 1/2 years, we just pay the mortgage off.
Always listen to Garth and keep your eyes on the ball, Grasshopers.

#61 BC Renovator on 10.21.21 at 6:44 pm

Twitter has been lit with this argument lately. Seems that all the Realtors and Overstretched are taking the chatter of higher rates to heart. Go figure!
When you hear “Rates can never go Up!” It really means they will and can.

#62 Reality Check on 10.21.21 at 6:50 pm

Central banks are always late to the party. It comes with the territory of being the “steady hand in the tiller” rather than appearing to panic. So inflation will probably be running pretty hot before central bankers blink and allow rates in a meaningful way. And once the inflation cat is out of the bag it’s hard to rebag as the 1970s inflation demonstrated. And anyways debt pig government wouldn’t mind a few years of 5-8% inflation to knock the debt to GDP ratio down.

#63 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 7:03 pm

45 TVO

Try to keep up!

https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/reconciliation-initiative-aims-to-make-up-for-rent-free-living-1.24361203

#64 secular bull and bear on 10.21.21 at 7:04 pm

people have missed the point. we’ve had a secular low in rates. the next 10 to 15 to 20 years will see rates raise. markets go through secular bull and bear phases. maybe we don’t get to a 15% US 10 year rate, but 5-8% within the next decade or so, is quite likely.

#65 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 7:14 pm

#59 The West on 10.21.21 at 6:28 pm
Hey steerage, your new comment section has arrived:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/21/trump-truth-social-media-platform-tmtg-presentation

HAHAHAHAHA…go get that truth!
++++++++++++++++++++

This will play a huge part in President Trump’s emergency return to the White House in January to get things right.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.21 at 7:18 pm

@#23 Floppie’s astute observations

“One minute city hall says there’s too many cars in suburbia, next minute they want to densify the side streets.”

+++

Yep.
Hizzoner Invisible Mayor Kennedy and the other Clowncil members want their property tax cake but the car owners to also eat it with parking permits.

Get ready for more of this as the Covid bills come due and the feds dont have any money to give to the Provinces or Cities…

Even dumb ponzie plumbers know.
Poo flows down hill.

#67 Faron on 10.21.21 at 7:23 pm

#50 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:36 pm

#114 Not Fooled on 10.21.21 at 10:46 am
#104 TVO on 10.21.21 at 9:17 am

Looks like “Woke up this morning…” is back.

#68 MARKETS CRASHING!! on 10.21.21 at 7:26 pm

TSX and S&P 500 have both hit historic highs today.

In October.

What could possibly go wrong?

#69 KLNR on 10.21.21 at 7:28 pm

@#65 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 7:14 pm
#59 The West on 10.21.21 at 6:28 pm
Hey steerage, your new comment section has arrived:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/21/trump-truth-social-media-platform-tmtg-presentation

HAHAHAHAHA…go get that truth!
++++++++++++++++++++

This will play a huge part in President Trump’s emergency return to the White House in January to get things right.

lol, ya his very own echo chamber will do wonders.

#70 DON on 10.21.21 at 7:28 pm

@Dolce regarding China real estate market.

I came accross an article that analyzed China since 2000 and of course the housing bubble.

When it comes to new apartments, buyers pay the full price to the developer up front. Then the developer builds the condo. That is one of the reasons why Evergrande is an issue. The other point is that there is no property taxes or transfer costs etc. The property only gives to the economy on the initial purchase.

@Linda
Regarding inflation…some folks are now saying 2022 may/will bring higher inflation…a confluence of factors – supply chain issues, wage increase demands ( Kellogs and John Deere thus far) and reflation etc). They have been unreporting inflation for quite some time…even this new number is on the low end. Not me…but the experts that are now breaking ranks from the Fed narrative.

#71 the Jaguar on 10.21.21 at 7:28 pm

@#53 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 6:06 pm
They were drunk Bubba. They were misquoted by the press and recanted the following day. Heads rolled and people were fired. You never mention that part.++

Isn’t that similar to when Crimea, which was always Russian until Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, got drunk one night, took a pencil and map and moved the border? Putin rescued them back to the motherland.
+++++

@#22 Nonplused on 10.21.21 at 3:26 pm—
Apparently he announced today that he isn’t resigning. He’s dug in and said “No Me Too Moment” for him”!

I love a good Rumble in the Jungle. This will be fun to watch-!

#72 El Presidente of Truth 2.0 on 10.21.21 at 7:29 pm

#65 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 7:14 pm

#59 The West on 10.21.21 at 6:28 pm
Hey steerage, your new comment section has arrived:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/21/trump-truth-social-media-platform-tmtg-presentation

HAHAHAHAHA…go get that truth!
++++++++++++++++++++

This will play a huge part in President Trump’s emergency return to the White House in January to get things right.

……….
Can the world handle the Trump Truth!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
Maybe it’s a good idea, but the last time someone called a media outlet TRUTH were the Soviets who called the Communist Party’s organ PRAVDA (meaning TRUTH in Russkiy).

#73 Shawn Allen on 10.21.21 at 7:32 pm

Is the 4.4% inflation accurate?

Meanwhile the official inflation rate of 4.4% has blown past the Bank of Canada’s 1-3% target range and is the highest in 18 years. But we all understand that’s a bogus Frankenumber. In reality, the cost of living has exploded higher as the virus threat diminishes.

******************************************
I disagree that official inflation is a frankennumber Statistics Canada provides a ton of detail on the items in the basket and shows some that are up well over 10%.

According to the National post, the highest inflation items in September versus a year ago were gasoline 32.8%, food overall 3.9% (bacon 20%, beef 13%), transportation up 9.1%, shelter costs up 4.8%. Where is the evidence that these numbers are under-stated?

I hate to see support for conspiracy theories and a lack of trust in Statistics Canada. Which component or category / item is too low as a percentage of the basket and on what items is the price increase under-stated?

Is someone actually deliberately strong arming Statistics Canada staff to under report inflation?

#74 KLNR on 10.21.21 at 7:32 pm

@#54 kommykim on 10.21.21 at 6:09 pm
RE: #28 Nonplused on 10.21.21 at 3:37 pm
Finally a green proposal without the sugar coating:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/path-to-a-greener-future-tax-kids-or-just-ban-them-outright
(Humor challenged lefties, note that it is sarcasm.)

=======================================

It’s true though. Having kids is the most environmentally destructive thing a couple can do.

ya mish shedlock is good for a laugh and thats about it.

#75 DON on 10.21.21 at 7:35 pm

Anyone hoping the government will come to their aid should remember the government thinks you are a prudent citizen and are responsible for your own decisions.

That and they will most likely have their own issues to deal with. The perfect scenario for the gov is for the bubble to burst from its own weight.

Win Win for the gov and a loss for an irresponsible borrower.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.21 at 7:56 pm

@#68 Markets Crashing
“What could possibly go wrong?”

+++++

You still won’t invest ?
:)

#77 Blacksheep on 10.21.21 at 8:10 pm

New # 24,

“The siren of higher interest rates has sung out for over a decade on this blog. Apart from minuscule increases prior to the pandemic that where not even felt, nothing has materialized. In the mean time, the prices have shot up 100-200% depending on where you are living.

Let’s face it. Once the inflationary pressures rise, the government implements the CMHC cap rise, extends mortgages to 30 plus years, and creates the under 40 TFSA for housing that all but makes the increases muted. Add in 500k new immigrants, temporary foreign workers, and international students a year, and the inflation is hugely eaten by an insatiable demand that has maintained its hunger for two decades despite the blips. And now add in the bank of mom and dad supporting kids after a 200% increase in their own equity, and the shift to intergenerational pooling of resources and living, inflationary increases will have zero impact. Finally, lets acknowledge the ever teasing nature of the feds with turning one and off the bond buying spree whenever there is a hint of a soft economy.

Too many people have the mindset that Canadian buyers are two people buying a house independently and actually proving they are ‘adults’. The reality is that now the majority of first time buyers have mommy and daddy’s help with down payments, land transfers and living expense costs as pathetic and sad as that is. This new normal keeps the party going as parents can draw down on equity after two decades of growth despite inflationary pressures.

Sorry, but when real estate constitutes 25% of your GDP, and all governments submit to the demands of the real estate lobby,(cartel), this party is never ending.

Just like the pull back from the hinterland never happened with a return to work, and return to work has not been replaced with remote and hybrid work, the sales next spring will push prices on their ever upward trajectory.

Those who waited, sat on the sidelines, and were financially prudent have missed a once in a generation opportunity and will be forever cemented in the new land based feudalism.”

Always nice to hear from a speculator. You are so cute. – Garth
——————————-
A speculator…Maybe.

But more importantly, was his comment incorrect, based on what has occurred for RE in Canada for the past dozen or so years?

In addition, what is the message from our freshly re-certified PM?

Support, support & more support.

If you can afford to safely purchase RE, do it…the inflationary wave is just beginning.

#78 Sheesh on 10.21.21 at 8:14 pm

#40 TVO on 10.21.21 at 5:00 pm
Clearly you don’t ‘hear what I’m saying’

“I see your corruption on reserve and raise you INCREDIBLE corruption on levels not even imagined by our politicians. How about a few key words for you? Epstein? Opioids? Afghanistan?”

—- I said corruption on and OFF reserve. Try to keep to the discussion at hand. Epstein, opioids and Afghanistan are not pertinent to this convo.

“Indigenous homeless? I raise you thousands of homeless white – children and all!”

Again, not pertinent. Many things can lead to homelessness, but being banned by your band is an issue that is unique to the indigenous. But talking about it is verboten.

You think things will magically be less corrupt if the land changes hands? That’s some pie in the sky thinking right there.

#79 Flop… on 10.21.21 at 8:17 pm

Doc V , I want to show you and all the other lurkers a recent sale in Vancouver.

On this blog at the time of the previous sale I documented how by Vancouver standards was a relative bargain and I hoped something good came of it, I believe it did.

1231 Salsbury Dr sold for 820k in November 2020, that was the bottom of the market then, you would probably have to pay around 1.05 for the same thing now.

One guy on here that hates my guts, rained on my parade, pissed on the block being so small ( less than 1/2 acre) and denied that the Commercial Dr area help this one have potential for a good home for someone towards the bottom of the market.

I did what I normally do and ignored the guy and proceeded to monitor what happened with my normal stupidity.

I am happy to report that the house, pictured below, was not razed, and was instead extensively rehabilitated.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2611669/1231-SALSBURY-DRIVE-Vancouver-BC/[email protected]

From memory it was pretty sad looking, think it had a small fire, maybe from squatters, and so it got the blue tarp treatment.

Going back to my original post, what normally happens is it gets demolished something way too big for the block gets built and affordability just gets talked about like taking out the trash in a rainstorm.

So whoever developed it paid 820k, I see a lot of work went into the interior, the exterior looks like the dreaded lipstick on a pig but it recently sold for only 1.19, so the profit would have been threadbare in a so-called roasting market.

I’ve worked on high end real estate on 3 continents, it would be ridiculously easy for me pick this place apart, but it is the bottom of the market for a reason and compromising on a smaller lot should be the least of most people’s real estate worries in this bifurcated city.

Over 1600 sq ft of living space, with all new surfaces, if this had been a new duplex add another 500-600k like I said and 1.6 million and you have to listen to your neighbours watch Real Housewives Of Who Cares, four nights a week.

The city caters to the big developers, that fill their political donation bins but if they want get get serious( hint ; they don’t) then they would focus on the smaller, cheaper end of the market.

Maybe give rebates for keeping perfectly building materials, and homes in essence, out of landfill, and expedite permits and minimize other Bureaucracy to encourage as many as the types of projects to completed in as short a time as possible with a bit of meat on the bone to make it a sustainable business model for even a a couple of dozen companies would make a big difference in a 5 year time frame.

None of this will happen, because of all the lobbying and donations, the best I can do is to point out the occasional sale that a young couple might be interested in to give them a little bit of hope.

Remind me why I had to marry a girl in such a messed up city?

Probably could blame Harper for that one too…

M47BC

#80 Sheesh on 10.21.21 at 8:22 pm

TVO:
“Let’s built it upon land theft, genocide and human right abuses. ”

That right there is the entire history of humanity in a nutshell.

#81 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 8:34 pm

#71 the Jaguar on 10.21.21 at 7:28 pm
@#53 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 6:06 pm
They were drunk Bubba. They were misquoted by the press and recanted the following day. Heads rolled and people were fired. You never mention that part.++

Isn’t that similar to when Crimea, which was always Russian until Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, got drunk one night, took a pencil and map and moved the border? Putin rescued them back to the motherland.
+++++
OMG you are right. Now i am worried about Alaska. Czar Nicholas sold it to the US in 1867 for 7million bucks. The price of a house in West Van! I think Putin might be coming to rescue that next. Woe is us! We are in deep kimchi.

#82 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 8:51 pm

67 Faron

“Looks like “Woke up this morning…” is back.”

Beat ya to it. See comment 85 yesterday.

57 Ponzie – my truck is 9 years old, so I claim kudos by keeping an older vehicle on the road so no new one has to be built to replace it (yet). But the newer ones get better mileage as they went with aluminum body saving something like 700 lbs.

Of my km this year, better than 1000 work-related, and another few with trips to the dump and recycling (yard waste, house cleanup) and still a few more with several
yards of garden mulch. So very useful for me. No leather
either.

Did I tell you I did not water my garden much this year?
Sprinkling was shut down during the driest part, and I dont water the back lawn much anyways as it drains
very quickly.

Oh, and tree hugger, I have several large second growth fir I left and some lovely (but messy) arbutus. Ya know, just to capture the carbon and provide squirrel and bird habitat. And no fence so the deer can wander through at their leisure. And my driveway is not hard-surfaced to allow better infiltration.

So really, I try not to be wasteful in either resources or effort.

Oh and I had a roaring backyard fire in compliance with local bylaws and provincial burning regs.

#83 Do we have all the facts on 10.21.21 at 9:00 pm

Let me see if I understand the current state of affairs.

Stock prices are on fire, corporate profits are soaring and an economic recovery is in full swing.

However the Government of Canada seems convinced that
average wages will not increase by more than 2.5% in 2021 and 2022. Well good luck with that!

The skilled labour force in Canada has been shrinking over the past five years and the substantial increase in immigration targets has not kept up with the shortfall. The idea that skilled workers will suck up 5 or 6% real inflation while reading about record stock prices and corporate profits seems a bit unrealistic.

Substantial wage increases in key sectors or our economy are inevitable and these increases will contribute to inflation but will also contribute to economic growth.

In this era of flexible working arrangements around the world Canadian corporations cannot afford to be pikers.

#84 Lead Paint on 10.21.21 at 9:09 pm

#9 TurnerNation on 10.21.21 at 2:41 pm

Life was so much more relaxing when I thought you were crazy.

#85 Dr V on 10.21.21 at 9:13 pm

79 Flop – thanks

That piqued my interest so I Google earthed the street view. Two doors down is a beautiful home. The historical imagery shows what looks like completely new construction of it in late 2008. But across the street the homes disappear and are replaced by…condos.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.21.21 at 9:15 pm

@#80 Sheesh
“That right there is the entire history of humanity in a nutshell.”

+++

Ahahahahahahahaha.

#87 april on 10.21.21 at 9:35 pm

Did any of you see the program Market Place, 11th and 18th of October, on real estate unethical practises.

#88 the Jaguar on 10.21.21 at 9:42 pm

#81 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 8:34 pm
#71 the Jaguar on 10.21.21 at 7:28 pm
@#53 Yukon Elvis on 10.21.21 at 6:06 pm
They were drunk Bubba. They were misquoted by the press and recanted the following day. Heads rolled and people were fired. You never mention that part.++

Isn’t that similar to when Crimea, which was always Russian until Khrushchev, a Ukrainian by birth, got drunk one night, took a pencil and map and moved the border? Putin rescued them back to the motherland.
+++++
OMG you are right. Now i am worried about Alaska. Czar Nicholas sold it to the US in 1867 for 7million bucks. The price of a house in West Van! I think Putin might be coming to rescue that next. Woe is us! We are in deep kimchi.++++++

Seriously, Yukon Elvis. Sometimes it’s just better to ‘succumb’. It’s worked for me many times in the past..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPqOc4lOYuk

#89 april on 10.21.21 at 9:46 pm

Re #87- should read, CBC Exposes Canadian Realtor Scams
Trapped by #interestrates.

#90 sean on 10.21.21 at 9:53 pm

RE: #73 Shawn Allen on 10.21.21 at 7:32 pm

Based on my own purchasing, I believe that Stats Can has been systematically underreporting inflation since the government learned how painful accurate inflation reporting can be back in the 1980s.

Off the top of my head, here are three examples of how they do it:

1) inaccurate basket weights: If food is up 20% but it’s a necessity that I *MUST* buy weekly, and TVs are down 40% but are a luxury that I only buy one every 20 years, then obviously food is FAR more important to my overall cost of living.

2) skewed “hedonic” adjustments: Applicances have more bells and whistles than they used to so Stats Can adjusts their price lower because the consumer is supposedly getting more for their dollar. Based on experience, however, c. 1950s fridges are still keeping beer cool, 1970s fridges lasted ~35 years, but ~2010 fridges are lucky to last 5-10 years. Based on this, the actual hedonic adjustment should be to INCREASE current applicance prices by 2-3X.

3) inferior substitutions: If people used to eat steak but the price of steak increases such that they start to substitute ground beef, then Stats Can alters the basket to include the price of the inferior alternative. This completely defeats the purpose of the CPI which should track an IDENTICAL basket of goods.

Why would Stats Can, an arm of the federal government, systematically distort CPI to minimize reported inflation? Just follow the money. First, many of the governments “expenses” (e.g. CPP, EI, OAS, etc.) are indexed to inflation so underreporting minimizes payout increases. Second, CPI inflation is effectively an admission that rampant currency printing is eroding the value of the currency which is political poison.

Tax revenues increase with real (as opposed to reported) inflation, and government debt repayment is much easier when it is done with inflated dollars.

Since extended periods of real inflation greater than reported inflation are clearly in the governments interest, the real question is “why wouldn’t they manipulate the CPI?”. I don’t believe that the current governing party calls up Stats Can and tells them to change the data, but successive governments have hired and set guidelines to gradually achieve this result. Over 30+ years ALL parties have had a hand in guiding Stats Can’s methodologies to minimize that pesky reported inflation value.

It’s not just Stats Can – ALL of the national statistical agencies have been doing this.

#91 Yuus bin Haad on 10.21.21 at 9:54 pm

the over/under is still GDP

#92 Andy Warhol on 10.21.21 at 10:00 pm

I think having land and not ruining it is the most beautiful art that anybody could ever want to own.

#93 Darryl on 10.21.21 at 10:06 pm

2022 will not be a good year and the same is true for the decade ahead. Unprecedented government spending, negative interest rates and magic tricks papered over the economic consequences of the pandemic temporarily. Now that spending is starting to dry up and rates are being hiked, we are on course to see a return to March 2020. Expect another few months of rapid gains in the stock market and housing market before a major crash hits. Long term, all the G7 countries will be in the same situation as Japan.

#94 TVO on 10.21.21 at 10:11 pm

DELETED

#95 Hank on 10.21.21 at 10:12 pm

I remember 1995, after the WSJ report declaring Canada a third economic world basket case there was a run on the loonie, mostly due to excessive debt. Martin and Chretian responded with severe austerity. Transfer payments were cut and entire hospitals were closed down, scenes of guerneys in the hallways were commonplace. it was BAD. These 2 were the last true leaders we’ve had. Harper, while I like Dr. Doom, won by cutting the GST, he bought us, and set us off on this road again.. The hard work had been squandered. And here we are today… in debt up to our ears.

#96 millenlial on 10.21.21 at 10:14 pm

We had no choice to get a large mortgage because prices are high. If rates go up and we are struggling with interest payments I hope we get some government relief because we were forced to pay high prices due to the governments low rates. It was/is not our faults, we had no choice but to buy what was available.

#97 BCWally on 10.21.21 at 10:24 pm

Kind of late in the conversation but I have a question. If the bond market runs the show, can it force our central bank in to raising rates it doesn’t want to and are ruinous to our country with our debt?
Like I’m thinking to keep up with the American dollar.

#98 Plus on 10.21.21 at 10:33 pm

Delta Plus…now in Canada.

I wonder how it possibly got here from the UK? How did it even get through the gauntlet of bulletproof safety measures? Who could have brought it? Not someone with a passport for sure!

https://globalnews.ca/news/8282395/covid-delta-mutation-explained/

#99 Dragonfly 58 on 10.21.21 at 10:39 pm

TVO, in the Fraser Valley it is mainly agricultural chemicals,fertilizers and cattle manure run off. Other parts of B.C. it is mainly heavy metals, both from mining and natural sources.

#100 TRUST on 10.21.21 at 11:17 pm

US ranks last among 46 countries in trust in media, Reuters Institute report finds

Just 29% of people surveyed in the U.S. said they trust the news, compared to 45% in Canada and 54% in Brazil.

https://www.poynter.org/ethics-trust/2021/us-ranks-last-among-46-countries-in-trust-in-media-reuters-institute-report-finds/

#101 cuke and tomato picker on 10.21.21 at 11:23 pm

Number 96 the most entertaining comment ever good luck millenlial.

#102 Overheardyou on 10.21.21 at 11:28 pm

Is it just me or are ‘official’ numbers usually frankenumbers?

#103 Keith on 10.21.21 at 11:30 pm

@ Flop

This is how it’s done

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMjRUUw==

Sold a few years ago, Heritage B property for around 2.2 million. They kept the facade and the roofline, and converted the house into two half duplexes. They moved it forward and were allowed to build an infill house behind the duplexes.

The front half duplex was listed for 1.5, the back half duplex was listed for 1.6 and the infill house (1600 square feet) listed for an eye popping 1.9 with little outdoor space to speak of. All three sold within three weeks, presumably for a total close to five million.

The profit on the project had to be well over a million, even with Vancouver building costs. Nice work if you can get it.

#104 The Joy of Steerage on 10.22.21 at 12:10 am

Wow… stunner… Bill Vander Zalm is still alive!!!.. wow… who knew.. and still rather nutz! The ultimate tulip bulb salesman turned politician!

Hey TurnerNation… he must be a hero of yours.. seeing as Covid is really a commie one world gov plot apparently..!!

A chemtrails.. and smart meter dude as well! All rolled into one!

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/opinion/bill-vander-zalm-talks-about-covid19-4538057

#105 fishman on 10.22.21 at 1:10 am

#90 Sean, I remember reading a few years ago that a Swiss organization rated Canada’s government statistics on a scale with all the other world governments official data/statistics. We came in first or second. At the time I couldn’t help thinking, Wow, there’s a lot of bad data going into economic models. Or maybe the governments keep three sets of books. Like some people I know that keep one set for themselves, one for the government & one for the future buyer. In the Big Boys Club its one for
the Ruling Elite, one for the Apparatchiks & one for
the rest of us.

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 2:22 am

#80 Sheesh on 10.21.21 at 8:22 pm
TVO:
“Let’s built it upon land theft, genocide and human right abuses. ”

That right there is the entire history of humanity in a nutshell.
———————-
Yeah, history can be hard for a nut with the brain of a squirrel.

#107 willworkforpickles on 10.22.21 at 3:24 am

“Inflation is running hot. Employment numbers are huge. The stock market just hit a record on Bay Street.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………….
Inflation is running hot are the weasel words of the Fed…as in hotter (4%) than the 2% they like to target and get away with.
In so using the bureau of labour statistics revised consumer price index (manipulated) omission sheets that just so happens to suit the Fed quite well .

Manipulated inflation numbers backed by the Fed as opposed to real inflation is what drives the stock markets…and to new heights.

The skewed low inflation CPI percentages spurred on by the Fed are how the markets gauge the rate of inflation and what they go by.
Too high inflation like the real inflation rate in society ignored by the markets but felt on the street today by the consumer would kill the stock market…just as too great a level of disinflation would do severe damage.

Constant revisions are made and adopted by the Fed to keep the inflation rate near the ideal 2% rate no matter how far removed from reality they are in order to buoy the market in so keeping and making the very rich richer, while everyone else becomes poorer with the rising real inflation cost effects.
Now they say inflation’s at 4% and running hot … beats telling of a current 14% real inflation rate and tanking the markets with the truth.

#108 chalkie on 10.22.21 at 6:55 am

House prices are now in the settling stage, as Mortgage rates rise, real estate will decline in value, this could last for years.
Pay daddy first means, stay where you are, the old home will do for a few more years, and don’t take on the gamble of sure shot deflating your net worth.

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.21 at 8:21 am

@#94 TVO
DELETED

++++
Scratch the thin skinned surface of a Wokester and you get the same ranting, raving, politically correct fascism of the New Left.
You remind me of a newly converted “born again” Christian standing on the sidewalk shouting your beliefs to an increasingly uninterested public….. until someone gives you money.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.21 at 8:33 am

@#98 Plus
“Delta Plus…now in Canada.

I wonder how it possibly got here from the UK? How did it even get through the gauntlet of bulletproof safety measures?”

++++

Yep.
A friend went to Mexico for a month with his g/f.
Flew to Seattle ( with their Mexican 72 hr covid tests in hand) no problem.
Took the shuttle bus from the SeaTac airport to the Canuck border.
Can’t come in. Must have a US Covid Test OR ( a Canadian can’t be refused entry to Canada) enter and pay a $5000fine.
Hotel in border town for several days to await a US Covid Test ( small town and covid test lab busy)
Back to the Canuck border.
Test ok Welcome back to Canada BUT you have to be quarantined for 14 days even with the neg covid test.
Ok
Goes home and sits for 11 days…. no one phones or drops by to check if they are there.
His car storage phones.
“Your car has been here 2 months are you picking it up or paying another month?”
He decides to risk it and go pick it up.
10 minutes after he leaves, Canada Customs knocks on the door.
$5000 fine.

I’d say that travel to the US and back is still a huge pain in the ass.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.21 at 8:36 am

Ponzies panzer Pals
“Yeah, history can be hard for a nut with the brain of a squirrel.”

+++

I seem to recall Austria tore down the border gates, embraced Hitler’s invading army and showered them with flowers.

#112 Rembrandt on 10.22.21 at 8:38 am

#92 Andy Warhol on 10.21.21 at 10:00 pm
I think having land and not ruining it is the most beautiful art that anybody could ever want to own.
Xxxxxxxx
And yet you gave us soup cans.

#113 Dharma Bum on 10.22.21 at 8:43 am

Economically speaking, things are only gonna get worse for the proletariat.

Yes, humans will adapt. What choice do they have?

But I still say that the good days are over.

Boy, we had it good.

Keep denying it.

#114 IHCTD9 on 10.22.21 at 8:48 am

#90 sean on 10.21.21 at 9:53 pm

1) inaccurate basket weights: If food is up 20% but it’s a necessity that I *MUST* buy weekly, and TVs are down 40% but are a luxury that I only buy one every 20 years, then obviously food is FAR more important to my overall cost of living.
___

Not to mention increasing food prices are fought tooth and nail by manufacturers via “shrinkflation”. Grocery bill stays the same or rises a little bit – but less weight in the cart.

Inflation doesn’t really concern me too much on the consumer end though. There are options for just about any overpriced good or service. Food can be grown/raised/foraged/hunted. Everything you could ever want is on Kijiji for half price (except any kind of vehicle right now). Energy costs can be reduced through changing vehicles, burning wood for heat, and changing some habits.

I say everyone in Canada should be on a mission to lower their cost of living on all fronts. They should be lowering their exposure to taxes, fees, regulations, and government in general.

The New Canada isn’t going to be one where you can breeze along and just pay the occasional increase here and there without a care. We have a collection of Nimrods at the helm – just look how much worse everything is now compared to mid 2015 when our deficit was under 1 Billion. Under. 1. Billion. hard to believe eh? Today the goofballs in Ottawa are making promises to spend 10’s of billions on top of pumping our debt into the 13 figures. And they’re spending it on useless woke garbage that will improve the lives of zero Canadians.

So, fill those TFSA’s and RRSP’s, fix that house/car yourself, visit the local FNR for your next shopping trip, try making your beer or wine at home, buy a cheap diesel Smart for the commute and leave the F350 for the weekend, burn some wood (it heats you twice), shop those insurance rates, do it all and save big on COL and taxes. More importantly, it prepares you for the eventual repercussions of the actions of our current troop of monkeys in Ottawa – aka the “New Canada”.

#115 the Jaguar on 10.22.21 at 9:45 am

Propane Snippet: In my neck of the woods it’s only for camping and BarBQ’s, but peeps might be surprised to learn how many homes, farms, etc are dependent on this fuel source…………..

“CALGARY• While all eyes have been on natural gas, propane prices have been skyrocketing, too, thanks in large part to a huge export market for the heating source.

Propane, usually produced as a by-product or derivative of natural gas, has jumped in the past three months, with prices in Edmonton up 296 per cent to US$1.40 per gallon from roughly US$0.25 per gallon, according to ATB Capital Markets.

Propane prices have recently hit a 7½-year high and are on course for their strongest rally since 2009, according to Bloomberg. IHS Markit recently warned the U.S. propane market could face “Armageddon” this winter, as certain U.S. markets are expected to run short.”
++++++++++++++

#105 fishman on 10.22.21 at 1:10 am
“Fishman” must be west coast lingo for “Mafia”.

#116 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 9:50 am

Response to Stats Can CPI criticism

#90 sean on 10.21.21 at 9:53 pm responded to me with the following criticism of CPI:

1) inaccurate basket weights: If food is up 20% but it’s a necessity that I *MUST* buy weekly, and TVs are down 40% but are a luxury that I only buy one every 20 years, then obviously food is FAR more important to my overall cost of living.

Response: But of course Stats Canada weights televisions vastly lower than food so this is not a valid criticism. Food is 16.2%, Televisions appear to be only a part of 1.0% in home entertainment equipment. See for yourself with this wonderful graphic:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm

2) skewed “hedonic” adjustments: Applicances have more bells and whistles than they used to so Stats Can adjusts their price lower because the consumer is supposedly getting more for their dollar. Based on experience, however, c. 1950s fridges are still keeping beer cool, 1970s fridges lasted ~35 years, but ~2010 fridges are lucky to last 5-10 years. Based on this, the actual hedonic adjustment should be to INCREASE current applicance prices by 2-3X.

Response: This point has some validity. I have a 68 year old General Electric fridge in my basement cooling beer at this moment. But it did cost probably a month’s wages back then. And then think about cars which last vastly longer than the rust buckets (Ford especially) of the 1970’s and have vastly more features and reliability. I think it takes fewer hours worked to buy a car today and the car is almost incomparably better.

3) inferior substitutions: If people used to eat steak but the price of steak increases such that they start to substitute ground beef, then Stats Can alters the basket to include the price of the inferior alternative. This completely defeats the purpose of the CPI which should track an IDENTICAL basket of goods.

Response: Do they really alter the basket like that? I notice in this latest report, beef was up 13% and yet you say “where’s the beef?” It’s right there!

4)Why would Stats Can, an arm of the federal government, systematically distort CPI to minimize reported inflation?

Response: You have no proof of the systematic bias that you allege.

Overall, it is easy to claim CPI does not represent your particular basket. That’s true. But most of the complaints that CPI is systematically under-reported appear to be bunkum based on nothing.

#117 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 9:54 am

CPI Manipulated? No

#105 fishman on 10.22.21 at 1:10 am
#90 Sean, I remember reading a few years ago that a Swiss organization rated Canada’s government statistics on a scale with all the other world governments official data/statistics.At the time I couldn’t help thinking, Wow, there’s a lot of bad data going into economic models. Or maybe the governments keep three sets of books. Like some people I know that keep one set for themselves, one for the government & one for the future buyer. In the Big Boys Club its one for
the Ruling Elite, one for the Apparatchiks & one for
the rest of us.

****************
fishman gave evidence Stats Can was not a manipulator and then proceeded to judge that it was keeping 3 sets of books…. Everyone’s a victim….

#118 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 9:56 am

Crap I left out a part in quoting fishman…

#90 Sean, I remember reading a few years ago that a Swiss organization rated Canada’s government statistics on a scale with all the other world governments official data/statistics. We came in first or second.

“We came in first or second”

#119 Plus on 10.22.21 at 10:40 am

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz

Thanks for the story. Good to know we’re being kept safe. Still doesn’t explain how DELTA PLUS got to Canada…but we know, don’t we? Funny how no one wants to say it.

Notice how they knew about DELTA PLUS being in Canada 3 months ago, but just figured they’d let us know now.

Just like outbreaks in fully vaccinated are killing Long Term Care home residents for months already…but they are just telling us now about it. Still debating boosters for this group. Geniuses!

>>>
At least 59 seniors in British Columbia have died of COVID-19 amid outbreaks at long-term care facilities during the fourth wave of the pandemic, leading the province’s independent seniors-services watchdog to call for speedier delivery of vaccine boosters.

B.C. is now racing to complete its rollout of third COVID-19 vaccine shots for residents and staff in long-term care by the end of October. The province’s booster campaign started weeks behind those in Ontario and Alberta.

Since Aug. 1, there have been outbreaks at 39 long-term care facilities in B.C., despite the vast majority of residents being fully vaccinated.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-fourth-wave-hits-bc-care-homes-as-vaccine-protection-wanes/

#120 Jay (Not that one) on 10.22.21 at 10:50 am

The idea that interest rates could never rise is insane. Not only did I think they could rise, I bet on it. Spent thousands of dollars to refinance in the middle of my mortgage term, and I took Garth’s advice and made it a 10-year term because I think they’ll have to rise a lot based on simple economics.

RC filters confuse people. They think that because something hasn’t happened yet that it can’t happen.

You can fill a swimming pool with a garden hose, it just takes time and once it’s full if you keep adding water you will overflow the swimming pool. But if at the beginning you told someone you’d overfill the swimming pool with a garden hose they’d say it’s impossible.

#121 Not Fooled on 10.22.21 at 10:59 am

#117 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 9:54 am
CPI Manipulated? No

#105 fishman on 10.22.21 at 1:10 am
#90 Sean, I remember reading a few years ago that a Swiss organization rated Canada’s government statistics on a scale with all the other world governments official data/statistics.At the time I couldn’t help thinking, Wow, there’s a lot of bad data going into economic models. Or maybe the governments keep three sets of books. Like some people I know that keep one set for themselves, one for the government & one for the future buyer. In the Big Boys Club its one for
the Ruling Elite, one for the Apparatchiks & one for
the rest of us.

****************
fishman gave evidence Stats Can was not a manipulator and then proceeded to judge that it was keeping 3 sets of books…. Everyone’s a victim….

****************

StatsCan also gathers data, including those on criminal offenses, based on self-declared gender. So if a male sexual psychopath ‘felt’ like a laydee while raping and murdering children, then a crime that no women ever commit will be recorded as having been committed by a woman.

Your faith in their incorruptibility may be misplaced.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.21 at 11:12 am

#119

Since Aug. 1, there have been outbreaks at 39 long-term care facilities in B.C., despite the vast majority of residents being fully vaccinated.
——————————
How about blaming the many unvaccinated care takers?
Time to replace all health care workers, who don’t seem to care about the well being of their patients, with workers who put the health of the patients before their own petty grievances.
I know it will take some time, but we must be better prepared next time.

#123 Chester Cheese on 10.22.21 at 11:25 am

Energy wars already started in Canada internationally and new Calgary mayor aligns with Trudeau to kill energy in Alberta.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/a-winter-crisis-raises-prospect-of-energy-blockades-in-europe-1.1670081

Do the Green Goons possess a power supply at super cheap prices that we don’t know about? Or are they just stupid. Or do they just not give a crap.

Is my math that bad? Interest rates just added up to $600 a month to you schelps monthly mortgage…..and you energy bills will be north of $1000 this and likely next. Are you “richer than you think”?

#124 Michael in-north-york on 10.22.21 at 11:52 am

At the inflation rate of 4.4%, it would take just 16 years to cut the purchasing power of the dollar in half.

We can inflate our way out of the accumulated public debt. Of course, that can only work if we stop piling up more debt, and that’s a big IF.

But rates will not stay where they are if inflation settles in above 4%. So debt-servicing costs ramp higher. We do not ‘inflate’ our way out. Ever. – Garth

#125 Plus on 10.22.21 at 12:07 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#126 Plus on 10.22.21 at 12:13 pm

DELETED

#127 BillyBob on 10.22.21 at 12:53 pm

#118 Shawn Allen on 10.22.21 at 9:56 am
Crap I left out a part in quoting fishman…

#90 Sean, I remember reading a few years ago that a Swiss organization rated Canada’s government statistics on a scale with all the other world governments official data/statistics. We came in first or second.

“We came in first or second”

=============================================

Not sure the Swiss are the best arbiters of anything to do with integrity, statistical or otherwise. Theft and obfuscation of war crimes masquerading as “neutrality” tends to reduce credibility.

You obviously missed fisherman’s point that Canada being ranked that high only delegitimizes the rankings.

The one thing I don’t think anyone would contest is that the official inflation rate is far below reality. Arguing over who has the “best” statistics is a bit absurd in the face of that. It’s like having a contest to see who can best measure a sh!tstorm.

#128 David Bakiody on 10.22.21 at 7:54 pm

It has been quite awhile since I have been on this site so I thought i would check in. Pleased to read all is well under these very trying times Garth. For those who are above real estate and investments due take time to read up on this COVID time period we are in and take stalk in your lives. I was shocked when a friend told me that his daughter sold out here in Fall River NS to live in Vancouver to be with their two sons who are going to University (Really ?) none the less he told me they are paying $7,000 for rent. Hard for me to believe, what is this country coming to? but I digress, Climate Change and world health should be more important issues but sadly housing via greed appears a better subject in any rate please keep safe and try and save for rainy day. Seems like yesterday Garth you passed a piece of gold around the room here here in Dartmouth.

#129 Game Over on 10.23.21 at 9:24 am

The only thing that can cure climate change and their environmental wackos is if we all have a massive shortage of food and we all die pr we get hit with a meteor and we all die.