Renaissance

In case you missed it in your pre-turkey enthusiasm on Friday, Canada’s back.

The jobs report for September was boffo. More than 157,000 new hires when the pointy heads on Bay Street had predicted just sixty grand. The unemployment rate went below 7%. That’s a big deal, since it was 14% through parts of 2020.

We’ve now regained all the jobs the slimy little pathogen wiped out. Our numbers are better than those in the US, where Friday’s print was a big miss. A a result, Canada bonds sold off and yields spiked. The dollar hit the highest level in a few months. And combined with oil at $80 – on its way to a hundred bucks, many people say – this is heady stuff for Canuckistan and its newly-reelected merry band of federal spenders.

Source: Statistics Canada; Bloomberg

By the way, the jobs numbers were even more impressive being all full-time positions, with almost 140,000 people coming back into the workforce. That brings our participation rate to 65.5%, the best number since this damn pandemic started.

Here are some of the implications and how this may impact your life.

The yield on two-year Canada bonds has hit the highest level since the early spring of 2020, when we had no idea what lurked around the corner. Benchmark five-year Canadas are near 1.3%, compared with 0.75% in August. Do the math – that’s a 70% hike.

Canada 5-year bonds yield surge 70% since August

Source: Investing.com

The bond market is telling you something – the Bank of Canada is about to throttle back on its stimulus spending, since it can no longer be justified when the labour market has roared back. Analysts widely expect our CB to cut its bond-buying program in half, from $2 billion a week to one billion later in October. That will stop the Covid-caused bloating of its balance sheet.

As you know, by snorfling up bonds in this way (at one point the bank was buying $5 billion worth every seven days) the bankers were intentionally suppressing yields to keep lending rates in the ditch. That was a trick to make moisters borrow like crazed beavers and jack house prices up by 30%, thereby creating economic activity (and lots of debt). It worked. They bit.

The five-year Canada bond yield, by the way, is the best indicator of long-term mortgage rates. So expect increases in the next week or two. As mentioned last week, the BoC’s benchmark rate will not likely move for a few months, so VRMs will remain the cheapest way to borrow. For a while.

Now while higher yields mean lower debt prices and your bond funds have probably sold off, it’s a far different story for preferred shares – at least the rate reset kind. This pathetic blog has been yakking about this opportunity for months now and explaining why a balanced portfolio should have about half its fixed-income (safer) portion in prefs.

Check out how this preferred ETF has been doing lately if you want to know where the market thinks rates are headed…

Rate reset preferreds take off along with bond yields

Source: TradingView.com

In the States the latest jobs report was a disappointment, but still robust enough to expect the US central bank to do exactly the same. It’s called ‘tapering’ and simply means the stimulus program will end there, too. The key 10-year Treasury (bond) is now north of 1.6%, or double the level of a few months ago. Higher rates are generally bad news for tech companies, which is one reason markets have been volatile lately (along with Chinese real estate). But some Wall Streeters are now convinced the correction (as puny as it was) is kaput. They’re looking for new highs.

Meanwhile, chew on this…

  • Supply chain problems will get solved, just like lumber prices did.
  • Covid is over. There’s even a pill coming.
  • Bond yields, interest rates, government spending, inflation and taxes will all be higher in 2022.
  • Pandemic income supports will end.
  • Vaccination rates will touch 90% in Canada.
  • Nobody will renew a mortgage at 2%.
  • Your balanced, diversified portfolio will be peachy.

About the picture: “My husband has been a devoted reader of your blog for many years, myself more recently.,” writes Mary-Rose. “We really appreciate your knowledge, advice and insight which we have used to plan the retirement we are now enjoying. This is our beautiful lab “Jake” who sadly passed away in February. He was my husband’s constant companion, spending the days with him in our business greeting customers. We miss him very much and I know Keith would love to see Jake’s picture greeting him when he sits down to read the blog. Thanks for all you do, we always look forward to reading your posts.”

152 comments ↓

#1 Exodus 2020 on 10.12.21 at 2:12 pm

I don’t view real estate as one market across Canada as obviously some markets are overpriced and some are fair or even underpriced. I think Vancouver and Toronto areas will suffer with rate increases, but Alberta might do well especially if oil goes up in tandem with rate increases, plus houses there are not insane as detached cost 1/5 of a comparable in Vancouver or Toronto. Garth, can you comment on different urban markets like Calgary compared to Vancouver?

#2 DC on 10.12.21 at 2:13 pm

First!

Great weather here in southern Ontario too.

#3 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 2:14 pm

Predictable, but it won’t be enough.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uk-readying-new-law-mandating-home-ev-chargers-be-shut-down-during-peak-hours

Sadly, it is the same greenie-weenies that shut down nuclear power who now propose to save us from the resulting CO2 emissions with pinwheels, glass fields, and lithium mines. Had the rest of the world did what France did in the ’70’s (build crazy amounts of nuclear), we probably wouldn’t be facing a climate crisis.

Anyway step one to getting out of this mess is going to have to be to stop listening to the people who caused it (the greenies). Electric cars will be nice but we need a way to charge them. Pinwheels aren’t going to do it.

#4 Paddy on 10.12.21 at 2:19 pm

“Covid is over. There’s even a pill coming.”

I can already hear the moaning/groaning/rattle of keyboards after that comment Garth.

#5 Cheese on 10.12.21 at 2:20 pm

ZPR ticking a little higher, feels good.

#6 dave on 10.12.21 at 2:35 pm

What about China….Evergrande is going to implode and send shock waves.

China will have on going major power outages…made in China goods will be double digit inflation

Is this China’s moment to send shock waves throughout the world?

#7 Chris L. on 10.12.21 at 2:38 pm

Covid is over because it never began. It always only had a 0.1 percent mortality rate. Yup, it put the unhealthy in hospital, and took 2 years to sort through everyone. From now on, if we can get governments out of the way, and stop the lockdowns, and the vaccine coercion, then we can get back to living. That’ll be up to whichever countries has the most level head. Canada remains a little unhinged at the moment.

28,264 deaths in Canada. Shame on you. – Garth

#8 jimmy zhao on 10.12.21 at 2:44 pm

I always look at the Dog picture and read the “About the Picture” first, then I read the blog.
Anyone else do the same ?

Yeah, my wife. But she skips the blog. – Garth

#9 facts on 10.12.21 at 2:51 pm

“Covid is over. There’s even a pill coming.”

Yet the “vaccine mandates” and “passport” is just about to start.

Red or blue pill?

#10 UCC on 10.12.21 at 2:51 pm

this is heady stuff for Canuckistan and its newly-reelected merry band of federal spenders</i)

Canuckistan? OMG Garth! You've been infected by TurnerNation. Better get another vaccine…..

#11 Leftover on 10.12.21 at 2:57 pm

“Covid is over. There’s even a pill coming.”

It sure is, and nowhere more than in the good ‘ol USA. Watching the MLB playoffs on the weekend was enlightening; not a mask in sight and full stadiums.

Many gasps from Canadians watching, I’m sure, but don’t forget that they pay for their healthcare down there. Idiot anti-vaxxers better have money in the bank.

#12 X on 10.12.21 at 3:02 pm

So that actually rate hike that was likely to be late 2022, now likely to be Spring 2022? Assuming things continue along as they have been. Canada is doing well in it’s fight against covid.

#13 Chris L. on 10.12.21 at 3:03 pm

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#14 Judd on 10.12.21 at 3:04 pm

Sorry to rain on your parade but what about the fact that only way the jobs reached 2020 pre pandemic levels is there were over alot of public sector government jobs and so it is not the same. The last stat I saw they were 380,000 new public sector, government jobs created since 2020. It would have to be private sector jobs, not public sector jobs to be the same amount and quality, type jobs. This is how figures lie, liars figure.

#15 Lt. Commander Data on 10.12.21 at 3:05 pm

I, Data, wonder how many of these jobs were related to address the election, and will now be lost now that the Canadian humans have elected a whole new and different government.

28,264 deaths in Canada. Shame on you. – Garth

Since I am named after it, I find it, data, fascinating. However, most fascinating is how humans are able to take numbers and interpret them for a particular purpose, message or argument. Any numbers, any data.

70-80% of Canadian deaths are reported to be from long term care homes, with most deaths being very fragile advanced age humans. This really is not being highlighted enough, because Canadian humans knew the early data indicated high level of risk for fragility, high mortality rate for 65+ age, and yet shockingly not once but twice allowed the outcome to materialize in long term care homes without any criminal consequences for anyone responsible top leadership down.

Cumulative data point totals being reported are also interesting. In this case the 28,264 number is quite large, but not as large as 547,844. That is based on 7.83 crude death rate in Canada over the SARS-CoV2 period. That first number would represent 5% of the second number in case you don’t have a calculator handy.

All of these numbers could be put into context with other number, but that maybe interpreted as ranking deaths due to size, and doing so is wrong – even if by default saying 28,264 SARS-CoV2 deaths without any context in my positronic brain would appear to be stated for the purpose of demanding top rank, disregarding the other 95% of factual data.

It is all very weird to me how data can be spoken about but not compared to other relevant data by humans. Humans are so primitive on this point. Many even withhold data from each other that would be extremely helpful in the decision making process.

Those who find the death of an older person is somehow less relevant and statistically suspect repulse me. You just joined the group. – Garth

#16 FriedEggs on 10.12.21 at 3:15 pm

Lots of potential healthcare jobs coming to Quebec.

Can you imagine 10,000 nurses are now threatened having their licenses suspend. What does it say to the normal soda pop tv watcher that those directly in healthcare, that follow the science – are willing to risk to lose their careers over this? They are all wrong of course, all 10,000 of them.

Deer in headlights.

#17 Dolce Vita on 10.12.21 at 3:17 pm

Covid is over. There’s even a pill coming.

I ‘dunno Garth.

My gut feel is Mother Nature is not done with us yet.

There are still 3.9M IMBECILES 12+ eligible that are not vaxd. Still plenty for Delta to Dine on (or by something new and improved upon by Mother Nature).

At the current ABYSMAL vax rates of 40K per day it will take another TWO MONTHS to get the 12+ eligible crowd 90% fully vaxd (33.2M of them in all).

For ALL 38M or so Beavers about 9 months, ya, NINE MONTHS (38.3M in all).

I love your enthusiasm and you Unsinkable Style Garth but wait to break out the Party Hats, Noise Makers, Prosecco (or crab apple in your throat Champagne if you prefer) and sing Auld Lang Syne for now.

The Robust Lady is not singing yet.

#18 wallflower on 10.12.21 at 3:18 pm

#8 jimmy zhao on 10.12.21 at 2:44 pm
ALWAYS!!

#19 facts on 10.12.21 at 3:21 pm

DELETED

#20 FriedEggs on 10.12.21 at 3:22 pm

Keep munching the popcorn and cheering your favourite losing sports team to win. The 100+ million over X years for these sports celebrities are worth your time on this short earthly journey. I guess I would be picking fantasy football and hockey if I wasnt getting action from my annoying complaining wife either.

Through your lettuce, tomatoes and smear words.
The few us are still fighting for you and pray for you. God Bless.

#21 Tripp on 10.12.21 at 3:31 pm

The pandemic may be almost over, but Canada gets more creative in moving ahead with a heavy-handed approach.

Oakville, ON requires proof of vaccination for marriage licences and ceremonies.

https://www.oakville.ca/townhall/proof-of-vaccination.html

#22 Dolce Vita on 10.12.21 at 3:32 pm

Very good advice on the preferreds Garth, as usual.

Your BMO prefs in the image* incr. 32% in value in almost a year.

TD TPRF did 41% in 1 year, 5% monthly dividend rate.

*Garth, what is the dividend rate of the BMO pref?

#23 XGRO and chill on 10.12.21 at 3:32 pm

Saying covid is over now, has major GWB declaring “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq in June 2003 vibes.

#24 Tripp on 10.12.21 at 3:42 pm

#13 Dolce Vita on 10.12.21 at 3:17 pm

“There are still 3.9M IMBECILES 12+ eligible that are not vaxd.”

Dolce, I live in Ottawa, 1M people, and over the last 19 months there have been 0(zero) deaths for people under 20 and only 2(two) for the 20-40 age groups.

Calling them imbeciles is uncalled for, intentionally insulting and totally ignoring the risk they are facing. Talking like this is not like you, even if it contradicts your beliefs.

#25 Chris L. on 10.12.21 at 3:44 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#26 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 3:44 pm

Well, rates are certainly on the way up, as one would expect with inflation in the 4-8% range. But they ain’t up by much considering the inflation rate.

I always thought “rates” (some sort of average, maybe the 5 year) were supposed to be above inflation and the “real rates” were nominal rates minus inflation. That would mean 2% real rates would mean 6-10% coupons right now. So real rates are still deeply negative. Deeply negative.

But it looks like come say January or February we might have bigger things to worry about. All of the pieces are in place for the most widespread energy crisis yet if we get some colder than normal weather. We’ve got lower than normal gas storage inventories, constrained oil production, drastically reduced coal production and generation capacity (due to regulations, not an actual shortage of coal), we didn’t build any nuclear, and there simply isn’t enough pinwheels or solar roofs to make a bit of difference (nor will there ever be).

If we get warmer than normal weather we will probably skate through. But it’s coming, one year or another. Then we’ll see what inflation really looks like. We already have an idea what energy scarcity can do to inflation from the ’70’s and that one was artificial. This one isn’t. Well, it sort of is. We could have lots more nuclear and we could have piles of coal sitting outside the coal plants and we could have more gas in storage, but we don’t.

I’d also like to point out that the collapse of the US housing market circa 2008 roughly corresponded to an energy crisis. Oil was over $100/bbl. Maybe by summer we won’t be worrying about house prices quite so much, but more how to heat them.

#27 Hallie on 10.12.21 at 3:46 pm

The last info I looked at was a 21% of all jobs Canadians have is in the government sector. This is not a good thing and as more Canadian jobs are dependent on government, we will be in a real fiscal and debt, deficits mess.

We could easily become Greece, Argentina or worse. The Liberals and Trudeau with many provincial governments are really pushing it with debt, deficits and government spending. Canada’s credit rating as well as many other provinces could be cut again. You know what that means higher interest rates, higher deficits and debt, higher interest payments, higher real unemployment and higher inflation, currency devaluation, 55 cents Canadian dollar to US dollar.

#28 R on 10.12.21 at 3:47 pm

#3 Nonplused:
If you own solar panel roof along with a Tesla Powerwall, you can charge the battery when the sun shines, or at night when the power cost is low, and then make money selling it back at peak demand. Tesla “Auto Bidder” software takes care of everything and essentally makes your house an energy trader “Buy Low/Sell High”. No one will want to charge their EV at peak demand ,so this regulation is full of sound and furry……

#29 Tony on 10.12.21 at 3:49 pm

Yes, for marriages but not for divorces. Oakville and other governments should require proof of vaccination for divorces too.

#30 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 3:55 pm

Hmm, another question comes to mind.

We know Volker stopped inflation in the ’80’s with what we would consider very high interest rates. But he did it in the face of what was essentially an artificial energy crisis. Once the oil embargo ended, the North Sea and Alaska came online, and cars got a whole lot smaller, energy prices and inflation stabilized.

But what will higher rates do if the energy shortage is not artificial? It takes 20 years to build a nuclear reactor, 10 of which is just for permitting. It’s not like France in the 70’s where they pumped out 52 of the things in short order. That took a national consensus, the likes of which is probably impossible today.

So what happens if we get inflation, higher rates, and stubbornly expensive energy?

#31 Josh on 10.12.21 at 3:58 pm

DELETED

#32 Billy Buoy on 10.12.21 at 4:00 pm

Please. Canada’s back.

Let’s see in a month.

Runaway inflation, cerb gone, and a .05 rate hike.

Canada back . Everglades Oct 17 18

#33 Soviet Capitalist on 10.12.21 at 4:02 pm

Sounds correct.

#34 cuke and tomato picker on 10.12.21 at 4:02 pm

Covid is over check what the IMF says which is not
that positive,

#35 Shannon on 10.12.21 at 4:07 pm

Hi Garth, can you comment on the fact that with unprecedented amount of money flowing into market, which created the asset bubble & high inflation, what will the anticipated interest rate hike do to these bubbles? Would that create a severe crash/correction to the US stock market?

Another interesting point is, many point out that since US debt has hitting a roof, the Fed won’t dare to raise interest rate even if the inflation is high.

Can someone comment on that? any comment is welcome.

#36 Planetgoofy on 10.12.21 at 4:14 pm

#21 Tripp on 10.12.21 at 3:31 pm
The pandemic may be almost over, but Canada gets more creative in moving ahead with a heavy-handed approach.
—————————————-
it ain’t going away…its part of their plan.
red, blue, green pill…what for the coming planned variants? I’ll believe it when I don’t see it. We’ve heard it all the this go.
Gretta didn’t work. Do the math.

#37 Josee Bellefleur on 10.12.21 at 4:15 pm

Question for you tax savvy folks!
If I own shares of a company in my us account and sell them at a loss,only to buy them back in my canadian account (in less then a month)because it’s dual listed can I claim the capital lost??

#38 Joseph R. on 10.12.21 at 4:23 pm

“Supply chain problems will get solved, just like lumber prices did.

Ask anyone trying to buy a new or used car or a video card.

Covid is over. There’s even a pill coming.

A pill is coming. But who will trust it? Conspiracy theorists will still demand their horse paste.

#39 Tarot Card on 10.12.21 at 4:24 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
I agree interest rates are going up
And I respect your opinions and believe you are right on many financial big picture issues

However, I am worried in fact very worried of supply chain issues.
Yes I can say things like no toilet paper at Costco on Sunday and limiting people to one per customer, and today grocery shopping my wife comment empty shelves, not bare, but lots of missing items, like flower, maybe it was because of thanksgiving?
A friend said electrical parts are non existent.

And that’s all we need is now shortages causing panic buying and making it worst.

So in conclusion, I am reading record ships in harbours in fact they are parking inbound ships for Vancouver over here in Nanaimo. Nobody to unload the ships or load the trucks shortages of truck drivers. Factories still closed in Asia producing chip shortages leading to Ford closing factories And on and on.
Worrisome.
Perhaps you are correct this will pass, but we could all be thinking short term 6 to 12 months like we thought covid would be over in 12 months. I think this supply chain will be much longer and the impact harsher than we think.

For now I am worried because I don’t know what to do in the short term.

A very interesting discussion!
Have a great day!

#40 Billy buoy on 10.12.21 at 4:28 pm

The IMF delivered more bad news today when it cut its global GDP forecast while warning that inflation could spike, and cautioned about a risk of sudden and steep declines in global equity prices and home values if global central banks rapidly withdraw the support they’ve provided during the pandemic. In short, the world remains trapped in a fake market of the Fed’s own creation.

Yea, Canada’s back for about a few months….LOL

#41 Lt. Commander Data on 10.12.21 at 4:32 pm

DELETED

#42 Joe on 10.12.21 at 4:37 pm

I find it humourous Garth finds real estate data is spun by realtors and govt to tell a specific story but doesn’t challenge the Covid data. I’d rather see what the incremental deaths were in Canada per month. Remember that death count is over two years. Would most of these folks have passed anyhow? I remember hospitals being so full when I was a kid there were people fainting on the floor especially during flu season. People coughing everywhere in emergency. No masks. This never got media attention then?

You just seriously just equated commission-driven property salespeople with doctors, ICU nurses and virologists? You anti-vaxers are sad, sad people. – Garth

#43 Ponnaps on 10.12.21 at 4:53 pm

#136 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 11:33 am

Clearly not speaking about primary residence..duh

#44 Garth's Son Drake on 10.12.21 at 4:59 pm

Everyone is quitting their jobs.

Just when you thought the labour crunch could not get any worse:

Most labour relation heads should be negotiating 20+% wage increases on contracts coming due. Take away the coming inflation and this is barely a 5% raise, if that.

Just under 2,000 workers of B.C. care homes and assisted living facilities have been pushed onto unpaid leave, starting Tuesday, as the province’s vaccine mandate for seniors care workers goes into effect.

Southwest had a sickout…the list goes on.

HR talent specialists are in high demand.

This is all about inflation. Supposedly transitory. Yet energy is sky rocketing and the IMF just issued a warning to CB’s to get ready to crank up rates as inflation jacks out of control.

Sure feels like we are headed for that 80s style interest rate climb.

And if wages do not go up at the same pace, man are we screwed.

The call is for Canadian housing to melt down by 2023. Don’t resist the cycle.

#45 Joe on 10.12.21 at 5:01 pm

#42
Garth, I’m vaccinated. I stand with doctors and nurses and despise realtors. I’m just trying to prove how society is quick to agree/follow herd if the story fits their narrative. Anyone who constructively questions the media or science or govt is labelled an anti vax. I have a heart condition so was worried the brand new vaccine still in testing would interfere with my condition. My infection rate is low I WFH so I can’t even infect anyone else so why risk my heart rhythm or clotting? But you’ve proven my point by quickly labelling me.

You equated commission-driven property salespeople with doctors, ICU nurses and virologists. Vaxed or not, your dumb comment deserved scorn. – Garth

#46 Quit Now, Pay Later on 10.12.21 at 5:08 pm

How long until the next crisis?

Stimulus needed.

#47 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 5:09 pm

#28 R on 10.12.21 at 3:47 pm
#3 Nonplused:

If you own solar panel roof along with a Tesla Powerwall, you can charge the battery when the sun shines, or at night when the power cost is low, and then make money selling it back at peak demand. Tesla “Auto Bidder” software takes care of everything and essentally makes your house an energy trader “Buy Low/Sell High”. No one will want to charge their EV at peak demand ,so this regulation is full of sound and furry……

—————————————-

Here is where we walk the fine line between what is technically possibly given unlimited funds (which translates into unlimited resources) and what is economic.

For example it is technically possible for anyone to fly into space. The clincher is it costs $50 million for a ticket on the Blue Origin.

So what you are proposing is that not only everyone buys a Tesla, but also a solar roof, but not just a solar roof big enough to power their house but also charge their car, and also a Power Wall, which means the solar roof has to be big enough to run the house, charge the Tesla, and charge the Power Wall all at the same time.

Yes it can be done. But few people have enough roof for that many solar panels and fewer still the budget for all that.

The vast majority of electric cars in the future will have to plug into the grid just as the vast majority of the existing ones do now. Especially in England, where hardly anybody has enough roof for a solar panel of their own.

#48 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 5:14 pm

#43 Ponnaps on 10.12.21 at 4:53 pm
#136 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 11:33 am

Clearly not speaking about primary residence..duh

——————————————

I thought we were talking about the types of mortgages available to landlords, which I took you to mean represented some sort of loophole retail rates. What sort of mortgages do you think landlords qualify for? It isn’t CMHC at 5% down and rock bottom rates, I can assure you that.

#49 Sail Away on 10.12.21 at 5:15 pm

#35 Josee Bellefleur on 10.12.21 at 4:15 pm

Question for you tax savvy folks!
If I own shares of a company in my us account and sell them at a loss,only to buy them back in my canadian account (in less then a month)because it’s dual listed can I claim the capital lost??

——–

That would violate the tax-loss rules unless you wait the required time before repurchasing.

#50 AM in MN on 10.12.21 at 5:19 pm

Don’t share all of your optimism Garth.

Covid isn’t over until the travel restrictions ease. They are linked to the supply chain problems, given the global trade arrangements that have been built up.

The vax mandates and passports are going to be a drag on things for a while. I know a lot of people, me included, who got the vax but are drawing the line at their children, and now having to adjust their lives accordingly.

Prices going up until the supply chain issues get sorted. Add to this an increase in the velocity of the money parked at the global CBs, prices won’t be coming down anytime soon. The demands for pay raises, especially for government workers, is set to explode.

China is in a mess, and that has global implications, especially for energy markets, which will cause the inflation problems to only get worse.

People still need hydrocarbon energy, and they’ll pay what it takes to get it, despite 20 years of under-investment finally catching up with the supply.

That extra $300-$500/month for your fuel bills this winter, plus all the other cost increases, are going to slow demand eventually.

#51 BC Doc on 10.12.21 at 5:21 pm

“Covid is over.”

That’s what we all thought back on July 1st when mask mandates were relaxed here in BC, only it wasn’t. And now, mid October I’m still sending unvaxxed patients to the ICU for ventilator support.

I suspect we still have a winter of discontent in front of us then hopefully CV loosens its grip in the Spring.

When CV finally fades, I suspect the economic hangover will be epic— 3-5 years minimum. That said, no one knows the future.

BC Doc

#52 Vic on 10.12.21 at 5:26 pm

Garth, I appreciate your optimism, but I think we’re on the cusp of seeing the SHFT.

Today Iran is testing to prep for war. China and Taiwan are prodding each other. And Trump is rubbing his hands on the sidelines.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/12/iran-launches-large-scale-air-defence-military-exercises

I think bigger things are about to make the economy take a back seat, which will cost everyone trillions. Hopefully we’ll all live through whatever happens.

#53 Tarot Card on 10.12.21 at 5:31 pm

Tax losses
Why are people so lazy not to search Tax loss?
Here’s the official,CRA web site read it

https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/personal-income/line-12700-capital-gains/capital-losses-deductions.html

#54 dennis on 10.12.21 at 5:37 pm

Pre pandemic it was often said here and on media that people were $200 away from not meeting their monthly expenses.

So where are we today in this current time period? Fuel/carbon taxes up, cable tv up, food prices up, natural gas up, day to day dry goods up, and up and up for everything. So are we in the $73 per month of being in the negative and not being able to pay monthly expenses? Something has to give and it will not be big business buckling and charging less for their goods from China or for services on our soil. People getting let go from their jobs for not being vaxed including higher end jobs, (boo hoo) and people in the lower end jobs filling those better jobs leaving the fast food/service jobs in a bad way. Crazy times and how long will it take before everything becomes fluid and normal?

#55 Barb on 10.12.21 at 6:01 pm

Condolences on the loss of Jake.
Sweet ole guy…lovely eyes.

#56 yorkville renter on 10.12.21 at 6:02 pm

#42 – Joe

The total number of deaths has increased vis-a-vis the expected number based on historical data.

Basically, more people than normal have died the past two years and Covid is the one new thing

#57 Bezengy on 10.12.21 at 6:04 pm

So all we need to do now is figure out a way to pay off Trudeau’s 500 billion of new debt and we’re good to go. As you were so to speak.

#58 Philco on 10.12.21 at 6:05 pm

#48 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 5:14 pm
#43 Ponnaps on 10.12.21 at 4:53 pm
#136 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 11:33 am
Clearly not speaking about primary residence..duh
——————————————
I thought we were talking about the types of mortgages available to landlords, which I took you to mean represented some sort of loophole retail rates. What sort of mortgages do you think landlords qualify for? It isn’t CMHC at 5% down and rock bottom rates, I can assure you that.
———————————————–
For private ownership or corporate rentals (landlords)? Commercials are 25% dough down 75% financed max no CHMC of course…I got offered 2.75% from the banks unreal really. Corps are always higher then prime res. Pretty sweet deal on an 8% cap rate and interest is tax deductible..RE rocking it thanks to blow out inflationary policies.
I’ve made out like a bandit the last 5 years :-)

#59 The West on 10.12.21 at 6:08 pm

To think that people are still stuck on “COVID”.

It’s going to be like newspaper clippings from 1936. Remember Neville Chamberlain and that time…..(sigh)

That dog is really cute, thank god the government saved us from COVID and I can’t wait for prosperity to rain from the skies. All indications point to nothing but prosperity moving forward.

#60 the Jaguar on 10.12.21 at 6:09 pm

Jake must have been a wonderful companion. His expression says ” Keith, don’t even try to go anywhere without me…….”

#61 Dolce Vita on 10.12.21 at 6:10 pm

#24 Tripp

Trip I love your inquisitive mind but fundamentally Mother Nature does not understand anything you wrote about.

She understands only one thing:

Adaptation.

Not Evolution. In fact Darwin in his time hated that term. London MSM of the time hijacked his term for theirs.

Covid will adapt.

It has no feelings, senses, affections nor passions. It just wants to make itself better unwittily via Natural Selection.

It does not know it is in Ottawa or Timbuktu, but by God it knows a willing human host and what to do with it.

Why IMBECILES.

Thinking that Covid, Adaptation, Natural Selection somehow heed their scenscient moral or jurisprudence code or more simply:

Non sequitur logic.

#62 R on 10.12.21 at 6:12 pm

Distributed Power Plants will be the future. New housing communities are now installing solar roofs and Power Walls and protect themselves from power black outages and pay for the system at the same time by brokering the energy flow. Be on the right side of change (Cathie Wood)

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/10/australian-couples-uplifting-story-with-tesla-virtual-power-plant/amp/

#63 TurnerNation on 10.12.21 at 6:12 pm

Long Bonds showed surprising pep today: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=h1

….
Almost back to normal! Gotta hand it to our elites. A two-fer: Cancel Christmas (again!) and Control over our Travel/Movement. This CHOS is planned not to end. All for your health Comrade.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pilots-warn-vaccine-mandate-holiday-travel-chaos/story?id=80279239
“Pilots warn vaccine mandate could cause holiday travel chaos. Unions say the 60-day-timeline could impact the season

.London’s New Year fireworks cancelled for a second year (bbc.co.uk)

.Ford government minister no-show at meeting with restaurant industry leaders – (toronto.citynews.ca)


— All those Economic Lockdowns and masks, and:

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/10/11/hawaii-news/deaths-in-hawaii-over-the-past-12-months-exceed-pandemics-local-covid-fatalities/
Flu, pneumonia deaths in Hawaii over past 12 months exceed all local COVID-19 fatalities
In fact, the death toll from influenza and pneumonia in 2020-2021 surpassed the 841 COVID-19-related deaths reported in Hawaii since the start of the pandemic 19 months ago

#64 KLNR on 10.12.21 at 6:39 pm

@#52 Vic on 10.12.21 at 5:26 pm
Garth, I appreciate your optimism, but I think we’re on the cusp of seeing the SHFT.

Today Iran is testing to prep for war. China and Taiwan are prodding each other. And Trump is rubbing his hands on the sidelines.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/12/iran-launches-large-scale-air-defence-military-exercises

I think bigger things are about to make the economy take a back seat, which will cost everyone trillions. Hopefully we’ll all live through whatever happens.

meh, just the usual posturing from those dopes.

#65 KLNR on 10.12.21 at 6:44 pm

@#44 Garth’s Son Drake on 10.12.21 at 4:59 pm
Everyone is quitting their jobs.

Just when you thought the labour crunch could not get any worse:

Most labour relation heads should be negotiating 20+% wage increases on contracts coming due. Take away the coming inflation and this is barely a 5% raise, if that.

Just under 2,000 workers of B.C. care homes and assisted living facilities have been pushed onto unpaid leave, starting Tuesday, as the province’s vaccine mandate for seniors care workers goes into effect.

Southwest had a sickout…the list goes on.

HR talent specialists are in high demand.

This is all about inflation. Supposedly transitory. Yet energy is sky rocketing and the IMF just issued a warning to CB’s to get ready to crank up rates as inflation jacks out of control.

Sure feels like we are headed for that 80s style interest rate climb.

And if wages do not go up at the same pace, man are we screwed.

The call is for Canadian housing to melt down by 2023. Don’t resist the cycle.

‘they’ have been calling a Canadian housing meltdown since 2001 and I highly doubt we ever see Reaganomics come around again.

#66 Cheese on 10.12.21 at 6:45 pm

I propose a national effort to build nuclear plants nationwide, preferably Thorium MSRs. With abundant, safe and zero emission energy, CO2 can be recaptured and processed back into fuel, carbon neutral.

The only real issue in the end is waste heat, radiant fins into space, attached to the launch loops….

Dream big, live poor :P

#67 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 6:46 pm

#28 R on 10.12.21 at 3:47 pm
#3 Nonplused:
If you own solar panel roof along with a Tesla Powerwall, you can charge the battery when the sun shines, or at night when the power cost is low, and then make money selling it back at peak demand. Tesla “Auto Bidder” software takes care of everything and essentally makes your house an energy trader “Buy Low/Sell High”. No one will want to charge their EV at peak demand ,so this regulation is full of sound and furry……
——

Don’t believe you can sell your power back to the grid (ie the government) here in Ontario. All you could do is feed the low cost power from the battery back to your house during peak rates. Most of the typical Ontario hydro bill consists of things that aren’t kWh’s used anyway. You’d have to live to be 400 to win with this plan.

We used to have a feed in system (microfit), which allowed you to sell power into the grid, but it’s over and done with.

#68 Joe on 10.12.21 at 6:46 pm

#56 Yorkville Renter – Covid is not the only one new thing. Opioid has shot up during Covid. Homeless (deaths on streets). Suicides. Heart attacks and other tragic deaths as people afraid to go to emergency. Cancer deaths as people couldn’t get surgeries. Deaths from Cancer rates going up. Tragic accidents as many drivers have been careless speeding on roads during Covid. I can go on.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.12.21 at 6:48 pm

Hey Turner Nation.
As Garth says, it’s over.
Just look at the States.
Time to find another conspiracy.

#70 Jo on 10.12.21 at 6:51 pm

Off topic, but can someone on the blog recommend a good place to get home insurance in BC. Both rural and city. We are claims free, but live in older homes. Need an insurer that has some common sense and looks out for us instead of the underwriter. Thank you.

#71 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 6:58 pm

#58 Philco on 10.12.21 at 6:05 pm
#48 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 5:14 pm
#43 Ponnaps on 10.12.21 at 4:53 pm
#136 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 11:33 am
Clearly not speaking about primary residence..duh
——————————————
I thought we were talking about the types of mortgages available to landlords, which I took you to mean represented some sort of loophole retail rates. What sort of mortgages do you think landlords qualify for? It isn’t CMHC at 5% down and rock bottom rates, I can assure you that.
———————————————–
For private ownership or corporate rentals (landlords)? Commercials are 25% dough down 75% financed max no CHMC of course…I got offered 2.75% from the banks unreal really. Corps are always higher then prime res. Pretty sweet deal on an 8% cap rate and interest is tax deductible..RE rocking it thanks to blow out inflationary policies.
I’ve made out like a bandit the last 5 years :-)
———

Even with residential, if you buy a multi-unit building and live in one yourself, I believe you can still get the 5% down deal!

#72 Rudi S. on 10.12.21 at 6:59 pm

Don’t know who to believe with lots crying for workers and medical labs forced to close through lack of workers. All causing real problems for many.

#73 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 7:01 pm

#70 Jo on 10.12.21 at 6:51 pm
Off topic, but can someone on the blog recommend a good place to get home insurance in BC. Both rural and city. We are claims free, but live in older homes. Need an insurer that has some common sense and looks out for us instead of the underwriter. Thank you.
——-

Try Allstate if they’re out there.

#74 DonM on 10.12.21 at 7:02 pm

#56 Yorkville Renter – Covid is not the only one new thing. Opioid has shot up during Covid. Homeless (deaths on streets). Suicides. Heart attacks and other tragic deaths as people afraid to go to emergency. Cancer deaths as people couldn’t get surgeries. Deaths from Cancer rates going up. Tragic accidents as many drivers have been careless speeding on roads during Covid. I can go on.

Lets not forget the largest demographic shift in our history is taking place causing the number of seniors to balloon.

#75 DonM on 10.12.21 at 7:03 pm

#56 Yorkville Renter – Covid is not the only one new thing. Opioid has shot up during Covid. Homeless (deaths on streets). Suicides. Heart attacks and other tragic deaths as people afraid to go to emergency. Cancer deaths as people couldn’t get surgeries. Deaths from Cancer rates going up. Tragic accidents as many drivers have been careless speeding on roads during Covid. I can go on.

_______________________

Lets not forget the largest demographic shift in our history taking place causing the number of seniors to swell.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.12.21 at 7:14 pm

@#41 Lt Cdr Data
DELETED

++++

I seem to recall your positronic lack of empathy was only surpassed by your…. child like demeanor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSPa9bHee-0

#77 Habitt on 10.12.21 at 7:25 pm

So what happens if we go back to a petrodollar?

#78 cuke and tomato picker on 10.12.21 at 7:29 pm

Number 70 talking about home insurance we just paid ours on Sept. 30 and it sure shot up this year. We live on south Vancouver Island and we do have earthquake
insurance. We realize there have been many fires in B.C.
so insurance costs are going up etc but maybe Garth can
do do a piece on home insurance to enlighten us.

#79 under the radar on 10.12.21 at 7:34 pm

I have 13 years left on my microfit contract at my farm. When that ends I will install a net meter . In the meantime, we get about 8k a year which pays for all our hydro and then some.

#80 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 7:34 pm

#30 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 3:55 pm

So what happens if we get inflation, higher rates, and stubbornly expensive energy?
———

Most folks won’t or can’t (urban dwellers) do anything – and will have to eat it. That’s the beauty of it.

Other folks can avoid a lot of it. With any luck, I’m going to chop my transportation fuel bill in half (while still driving a truck), will be doing round #2 of supplemental free skid-wood heat, and I’d love to see higher rates happen (no debt).

On top of that, I am also liquidating well used and enjoyed “assets” into the overheated Kijiji marketplace, simplifying and downsizing. In effect, I’m building the cash reserves while dragging down my cost of living.

There are a handful of dogs here who I can tell don’t really shine until things get tough. They’re probably all looking forward to it.

#81 Tripp on 10.12.21 at 7:46 pm

#61 Dolce Vita on 10.12.21 at 6:10 pm

You have a valid point regarding adaptation. Nonetheless, it is proven the young and healthy are facing a minimal risk, almost inexistent under 20 y/o. In Ottawa they also have been the majority of the cases.

I will follow-up next days with data from the City health website.

#82 Gravy Train on 10.12.21 at 7:58 pm

#67 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 6:46 pm
“Don’t believe you can sell your power back to the grid (ie the government) here in Ontario.[…]” “[…] Net metering […] is available to any Hydro One customer who generates electricity primarily for their own use from a renewable energy source (wind, water, solar radiation or agricultural biomass).

“Net metering allows you to send electricity generated from Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) to Hydro One’s distribution system for a credit towards your electricity costs. Excess generation credits can be carried forward for a consecutive 12-month period to offset future electricity costs. Net-metered customers can now pair energy storage with renewable energy systems.”
https://www.hydroone.com/business-services/generators/net-metering

#83 Cheese on 10.12.21 at 8:03 pm

Time soon for some rocket mass heaters, hugelkultur in the backyard, raising fowl, somehow things might just work out. Financial assets are lovely to have, but let us not neglect skills.

#84 Sail Away on 10.12.21 at 8:03 pm

#80 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 7:34 pm

There are a handful of dogs here who I can tell don’t really shine until things get tough. They’re probably all looking forward to it.

———-

Wrk.Dover has total annual nondiscretionary living costs of $14.27, but could trim some luxuries if pressed.

#85 Sunny Daze on 10.12.21 at 8:07 pm

Most people here sound like the fearless Alberta leaders of a few months ago.

Stay safe with your loved ones folks.

#86 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 8:11 pm

#79 under the radar on 10.12.21 at 7:34 pm
I have 13 years left on my microfit contract at my farm. When that ends I will install a net meter . In the meantime, we get about 8k a year which pays for all our hydro and then some.

——

How many KW’s you running? What are they paying these days?

I looked into it when McGuinty first brought it out – they were paying .80/kWh for solar lol! I should have jumped on it, it would have helped pay for the massive increase in electricity prices that followed shortly thereafter…

#87 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 8:18 pm

#84 Sail Away on 10.12.21 at 8:03 pm
#80 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 7:34 pm

There are a handful of dogs here who I can tell don’t really shine until things get tough. They’re probably all looking forward to it.

———-

Wrk.Dover has total annual nondiscretionary living costs of $14.27, but could trim some luxuries if pressed.
—— –

Yeah, I’ll never be that good.

#88 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 8:25 pm

#82 Gravy Train on 10.12.21 at 7:58 pm
#67 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 6:46 pm
“Don’t believe you can sell your power back to the grid (ie the government) here in Ontario.[…]” “[…] Net metering […] is available to any Hydro One customer who generates electricity primarily for their own use from a renewable energy source (wind, water, solar radiation or agricultural biomass)
——-

Net metering is fine, but it’s not getting paid. Plus once you have a solar array and a net metering deal, you don’t need any of that tesla stuff.

In the USA, some states have made it law that the (private) utilities must buy back all the excess. Up here best case is you’d get a hydro bill for $0.00, down there you’d get a cheque.

#89 yorkville renter on 10.12.21 at 8:26 pm

#74 Lets not forget the largest demographic shift in our history is taking place causing the number of seniors to balloon.

Are you suggesting that we had a spike in people aging in the past 20 months? really?

#68 Opioid has shot up during Covid. Homeless (deaths on streets). Suicides. Heart attacks and other tragic deaths as people afraid to go to emergency. Cancer deaths as people couldn’t get surgeries.

I just read the following:
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, 6,946 apparent opioid toxicity deaths occurred (April 2020 to March 2021), representing an 88% increase from the same time period prior to the pandemic (April 2019 to March 2020 – 3,691 deaths).

Also, this link is interesting: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm

It outlines a similar talk track to your own, but the vast majority of increased death is still due to Covid.

An additional 3300 deaths more than the year prior – a tragedy – but this represents just

#90 Philco on 10.12.21 at 8:29 pm

#71 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 6:58 pm
Even with residential, if you buy a multi-unit building and live in one yourself, I believe you can still get the 5% down deal!
———————
I never looked into that??? Hmmm.
I think ya still want to incorporate. Have the reduced corp tax rate ect and better protected ie being sued personally ect.
I can abuse rightoffs legally, purchasing things like skid steers. Lol.
I dont like to much leverage. I went with 75% down and paid off the last $650k mortgage in 5 years…
Cheers

#91 Shawn Allen on 10.12.21 at 8:34 pm

Property Tax Deferrals for old people steal from the young.

It was mentioned yesterday that in B.C there is the ability defer property tax until a property is sold and to do so at a very low interest rate and only for people over age 55.

This is complete garbage not only because it keeps some houses off the market but because younger people have to make up the difference – or the lost revenue is borrowed to be repaid eventually by younger people.

It’s outrageous. I would qualify by age if I lived in B.C. Not sure if there is an income test?

This is just another example of the giant REVERSE intergenerational wealth transfer that is going on.

Young people are taking out massive mortgages to buy houses from older people. That is a huge reverse inter-generational wealth transfer.

Young also people have to fund old age pensions since they come out of general revenue. Yes, many seniors also contribute to funding those. But low income seniors contribute little or nothing. I won’t mind a bit if my income is high enough so that all of old age pension is clawed back.

This is garbage and young people should be up in arms.

#92 Shawn Allen on 10.12.21 at 8:41 pm

A HUGE Thank You to the school kids!

The vast majority of children are apparently at very little to almost no risk of serious illness if they catch COVID. Yet they have been sitting in classes for hours with masks and generally doing frequent masking for 18 months now. And they have often been barred from their sports and many other normal activities including even hanging out with friends.

Not to protect themselves. But to protect adults.

Never have I seen them thanked for this. I thank them!

If the government is so intent on handing out money give every kid at least $100 per month as thanks.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.12.21 at 8:51 pm

With all the Covid stats coming out, it’s becoming clear that the vaccines are working, and most of the patients in ICUs and deaths the unvaccinated.
It’s especially true in the rural areas, where people for many reasons don’t get vaccinated.
If you’re still holding out, don’t be selfish.
Get the jab, and become a member of civilization.

#94 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 8:53 pm

#83 Cheese on 10.12.21 at 8:03 pm

Time soon for some rocket mass heaters…

———-

Not even a joke. That’s exactly what I built last Christmas break as a COVID project for supplement heat. Well, not the mass type, but the heater type with the steel expansion bell and “chunk” hopper out front. It provided supplemental heat from Jan to April. Fed via free skid wood I get from work that I chunked up.

Kicked out tons of heat, but needed feeding every half hour among other drawbacks. I’m doing some mods for this year, hopefully to improve burn times and steady the draft.

#95 Joe on 10.12.21 at 9:00 pm

I find it strange last year we were praising health care workers for saving our sick friends and family and now we are firing them for not getting vaccine.

#96 Cici on 10.12.21 at 9:05 pm

#29 Tony

Nope, divorce is an “essential service.”

And although divorce is sometimes a cause for celebration, I’ve never heard of large gatherings in association with lavish “divorce parties.”

So in the case of divorce, masks are probably just fine.

#97 Cheese on 10.12.21 at 9:12 pm

Kicked out tons of heat, but needed feeding every half hour among other drawbacks. I’m doing some mods for this year, hopefully to improve burn times and steady the draft.

Very nice, I happened across one design that used split levels in the bench with internal baffles, I will try to find a link to it. Spreads the heat into the thermal mass more effectively. I think the bell types are great, but as a radiator they get too hot, cook you out of the room!

#98 Gail on 10.12.21 at 9:13 pm

So BOC reduces buying which means the Feds will have to rely on private market which will demand higher rates which will affect interest costs in budget which…dare we hope…lead to a change in fiscal policy.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.12.21 at 9:27 pm

@#91 Shawn Allen
“I won’t mind a bit if my income is high enough so that all of old age pension is clawed back.”

++++

Don’t worry.
It will be……

#100 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 9:30 pm

#91 Shawn Allen on 10.12.21 at 8:34 pm

Property Tax Deferrals for old people steal from the young.

It was mentioned yesterday that in B.C there is the ability defer property tax until a property is sold and to do so at a very low interest rate and only for people over age 55.

—————————————

Woah there fella, we don’t have to find an intergenerational wealth transfer under every rock and behind every tree. The deferrals came about because property taxes were rising so fast that retired people couldn’t pay them. They still do when the house is sold. Interest is negligible everywhere you look.

In fact these low interest rates rob from the old to give to the young! How is a person supposed to retire on 0.01% interest? But it’s great if you want a million dollar mortgage.

#101 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 9:42 pm

#88 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 8:25 pm

“In the USA, some states have made it law that the (private) utilities must buy back all the excess. Up here best case is you’d get a hydro bill for $0.00, down there you’d get a cheque.”

I’m sure there is somebody somewhere who has enough solar that he net meters to zero over the year, but he is a rare person with a very large array. The sun don’t shine much in the winter but the furnace runs all day long. Plus much of what you pay for on your hydro bill isn’t actually electricity. All kinds of service and transmission fees in there. You can use 0 kw and still have a bill.

Oh and that reminds me. People who are all up on their roof top solar are being kind of disingenuous if they have gas appliances. Furnace, hot water tank, stove maybe, or a natural gas grill and fire bowl on the deck. If you have such things and not including your gas bill when calculating how energy independent you are, you are lying, or at the very least misrepresenting yourself. Around my house we run about 50% of our energy through the gas line. Maybe more in the winter.

#102 CJohnC on 10.12.21 at 9:45 pm

#91 Shawn Allen. Deferred property tax in bc

No income test. Just be 55 or older. Period.

#103 Doug t on 10.12.21 at 9:51 pm

Well that’s all great…….BUT boy this sticky situation with China is getting HOT

#104 Michael in-north-york on 10.12.21 at 9:52 pm

#50 AM in MN on 10.12.21 at 5:19 pm

Don’t share all of your optimism Garth.

Covid isn’t over until the travel restrictions ease. They are linked to the supply chain problems, given the global trade arrangements that have been built up.

The vax mandates and passports are going to be a drag on things for a while. I know a lot of people, me included, who got the vax but are drawing the line at their children, and now having to adjust their lives accordingly.
===

Even more than that. I am vaxxed, all family members vaxxed, but we are going out locally much less than we used to, and even less eager to go on a plane trip.

Vaxports are a hassle, wearing the masks is a hassle, it is difficult to book a trip in advance because another wave might strike, etc. I am not against the mask rules, they are appropriate. Yet I want to go out only when I have to, otherwise I burrow inside my house.

And that makes me a bit richer, but the retailers a bit poorer.

#105 Do we have all the facts on 10.12.21 at 10:02 pm

Peachy might be overstating the future of the Canadian economy.

In September 2019 19,165,000 Canadians were employed. Between September 2015 and September 2019 the Canadian economy generated an average of 300,000 new jobs per year.

In September 2021 19,131,000 Canadians were employed. Setting aside the impact of Covid 19 one might have expected that by September 2021 19,730,000 Canadians might have been employed.

I have yet to see any hard evidence that the Canadian economy is capable of generating 2,100,000 new jobs by 2026. Recovering the real employment lost between September 2019 and September 2021 will require the creation of an average of 420,000 new jobs per year over the next five years.

This challenge will not be met by optimism alone.

‘Peachy’ referred to portfolio prospects. Why did you misquote? – Garth

#106 Albertaguy in AB on 10.12.21 at 10:32 pm

Hey everyone…were just 10 days away from our illustrious leaders saving us from ourselves again by keeping the border closed to car traffic “until at least November 21”.

#107 Albertaguy going to AZ on 10.12.21 at 10:34 pm

Check that…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-to-open-border-with-canada-starting-in-early-november-buffalo-news/ar-AAPrpjV

#108 facts on 10.12.21 at 10:45 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#109 Diamond Dog on 10.12.21 at 10:48 pm

#68 Joe on 10.12.21 at 6:46 pm

We don’t have to guess or speculate, the numbers for 2020 life expectancy for the U.S. as an example, are in:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/202107.htm

“Life expectancy at birth for the total population declined from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020. The report also shows the disparity in life expectancy between men and women grew in 2020 from
5.1 years in 2019 to 5.7 years in 2020. From 2000 to 2010, this disparity had narrowed to 4.8 years, but gradually increased from 2010 to 2019.

The decline in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020 can primarily be attributed to deaths from the pandemic, as COVID-19 deaths contributed to nearly three-fourths or 74% of the decline. An estimated 11% of the decline in life expectancy can be attributed to increases in deaths from accidents/unintentional injuries. Drug overdose deaths account for over one-third of all unintentional injury deaths, and last week NCHS reported an all-time high of over 93,000 overdose deaths in 2020.

Other contributing causes of death to the decline in life expectancy in 2020 include homicide
(3.1% of the decline), diabetes (2.5%), and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (2.3%)” – link

So there we have it. Human life expectancy dropped by 1.5 years in the U.S. in 2020. Covid19 has it’s footprints all over this. To date, 737,569 souls have been lost to the pandemic in the U.S. out of some 45.4 million who tested positive for the disease. 1 in 440 are no longer with us since the pandemic began 20 months or so ago, but deaths aren’t half of the story.

The term “long Covid” defines long term side effects, primarily in the lungs of those who have been infected.

https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/studies-show-long-haul-covid-19-afflicts-1-in-4-covid-19-patients-regardless-of-severity/2021/03

Studies point to 1 in 4 suffering from long term effects regardless of severity to the disease. 1 in 4 is just over 11 million Americans suffering from long term effects, most commonly effecting breathing.

“What’s so unusual is to see a large group of people who seemed to have less severe cases have such long-lasting symptoms,” Sandrock said. “This is not something we’ve seen with any other infectious disease.” – link

When we look at the latest news on long term Covid19 effects and just how many millions are effected in the U.S.:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/what-researchers-say-about-long-term-effects-covid-19-2021-10-07/

How many millions of U.S. adults are unable to work right now because of long term effects of Covid19? Is it 11 million after 6 months and 5.5 million after a year? is it 3.3 million or 1% of the working U.S. population, 1.5% of the work force now a question mark to get back to work because the scarring of the lungs and the fatigue etc. keeps them from being able to effectively do their jobs?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/southwest-airlines-reduces-cancellations-after-mass-cancellations-from-staffing-shortage.html

Is this the reason why SW Airlines faced disruption, cancelling 2,000 flights over the weekend due to a lack of personnel? Florida kicked it off, with higher numbers of personnel calling in sick. Not to let a good potential conspiracy go to waste, rabble rousers blame the effects of the pandemic on the vaccine mandate. It’s what dummies do:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4KXulIM7VA&t=415s

One thing is for certain considering the overall effects on human health, deaths and the economic drain of some 10 trillion flooding the money supply in just 18 months because of this pandemic, much of it spent just to keep the lights on. It should never have been politicized. Looking at U.S. numbers, the cost to overall human health and economics has been nothing short of extreme.

#110 it's the 70's all over on 10.12.21 at 11:26 pm

#30 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 3:55 pm

But he did it in the face of what was essentially an artificial energy crisis.

So what happens if we get inflation, higher rates, and stubbornly expensive energy?

___________________________________

it’s “transitory”

(please note the sarcasm)

#111 Cat Frum Hell on 10.12.21 at 11:45 pm

Another revision. Just like the 157,000 jobs announced late Friday night after the media turned the lights out. We’re swimming neck deep in bullshit.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/imf-trims-view-on-growth-rebound-as-dangerous-divergence-seen

#112 Joe-fresh-fire-factory on 10.13.21 at 12:00 am

New slogan for boomed Canadians. T/Shirts incoming.

I made a fortune selling the home my parents built, out from my loser children.

#113 Jake on 10.13.21 at 12:10 am

$100 oil will be good for Canada especially out West but the party won’t last. Pump prices are already at levels where we were in 2007 and that was a big chokehold. The consumer can’t handle a 25% minimum oil price premium for long lengths.

#114 Sail Away on 10.13.21 at 12:24 am

Re: heating

We have all the heat options: upstairs gas fireplace insert that does 80% of the heating, downstairs wood insert used on weekends when we watch TV, main oil furnace rarely used except during cold snaps, and in-floor electric radiant heat in the bathrooms.

That said… the best solution by far is to channel Don G and go south for the winter. The airplane fuel used can be offset by heating fuel saved for net positive carbon effect.

At one of the hunting lodges we frequent, the owners installed a commercial outdoor wood furnace and boiler that heats a 5,000 s.f. lodge and many cabins. It’s stoked twice a day with 5′ logs, and man does it burn hot. As the owner was getting familiar with it, he had a few ‘poof- no eyebrows’ incidents and looked like Gollum’s brother that year.

#115 DON on 10.13.21 at 12:38 am

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fall-of-an-austrian-chancellor-the-stench-of-corruption-leads-to-kurz-s-sudden-resignation-a-77b76520-1fdd-4497-aeeb-fdb07e2e814a

Even young politician are corrupt…his career over @ 35. He was once seen as one of a kind now he’s just one of many. How about we go back to experience.

#116 Diharv on 10.13.21 at 1:37 am

#7 Chris L. on 10.12.21 at 2:38 pm
Covid is over because it never began. It always only had a 0.1 percent mortality rate. Yup, it put the unhealthy in hospital, and took 2 years to sort through everyone. From now on, if we can get governments out of the way, and stop the lockdowns, and the vaccine coercion, then we can get back to living. That’ll be up to whichever countries has the most level head. Canada remains a little unhinged at the moment.

The widow and fatherless kids of my once healthy 40 year old cousin would disagree with you. It’s idiots like you that are prolonging this scourge.

#117 Zen Investor on 10.13.21 at 3:22 am

Optimism re: recovery is misplaced. Does anyone not see how the “excess savings” of Canadians ( and the western worlds middle class) is evaporating before your eyes.

https://calgaryherald.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-soaring-energy-prices-are-about-to-make-a-massive-dent-in-canadian-consumers-excess-savings/wcm/71423cfb-9b45-4a77-8df6-23d9bf563a83

The recovery is as vapid as the jobs numbers. As treacherous as the free money ploy. Without a phony house bubble we would have entered depression. But the bubble is as phony as the recovery.

Money always finds it’s way home, and you ain’t well one. Don’t believe a word of it.

#118 earthboundmisfit on 10.13.21 at 5:07 am

“Covid is over”. Not by a longshot.
Not one of your shining moments, Mr. Turner.

#119 under the radar on 10.13.21 at 5:34 am

#86- 10kw , my rate is about 58 cents.

#90 rents are passive income and taxed at the highest rate. You incorporate for limited liability , although the bank won’t look at you without a personal guarantee.

#120 Wrk.dover on 10.13.21 at 5:56 am

#84 Sail Away on 10.12.21 at 8:03 pm
#80 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 7:34 pm

There are a handful of dogs here who I can tell don’t really shine until things get tough. They’re probably all looking forward to it.

———-

Wrk.Dover has total annual nondiscretionary living costs of $14.27, but could trim some luxuries if pressed.
_________________________

The living cost is double that, daily. And the same amount again to own the compound with tax, insurance, land line, net and satellite TV.

Which totals 2/5 of our net.

The power company sent us a small cheque on our 12 month solar net meter anniversary. The next one will probably be equivalent 1/2 of a two month bill, simply because I finally hooked the water supply to the five gallon heater under the kitchen sink to the forty gallon heater under the bathroom, which gets its water from the solar heated tank. We are currently 2200kw/hr ahead.

The anti solar power taliban like cavemen on this site are probably anti-vaxers too! Or unable to trust a person with no reason to mislead them.

Be the change

M68NS

#121 Wrk.dover on 10.13.21 at 6:01 am

Oh yeah, the coming energy crunch winter….

The only energy we directly purchase is, 4 litres of gasoline per day. I track and crunch all numbers.

No electricity, no heating cost.

#122 Wrk.dover on 10.13.21 at 6:16 am

The cars, I almost forgot the cars.

The primary year round driver is in that first living expense, the summer cars are in the carry the compound expense.

We live where a wrinklie can cover three cars for $1200/yr. and get back $ when cancelling two of them seasonally. Plus the antique cars are a buck a day each year ’round through Hagerty.

Nothing wears out when you only use a few tanks of premium/year/vehicle, and keep them all indoors. Tires don’t like sun light, but only Micheline rubber can tell time and self destruct.

#123 Do we have all the facts on 10.13.21 at 8:05 am

Garth your use of the word ‘peachy’ got me thinking about how optimistic mainstream media has become over the future of the Canadian economy. All this talk about 5%+ growth of GDP in 2021 and a drop in the unemployment rate is ignoring the extent of damage caused by the Covid 19 virus to the Canadian economy.

I will apologize for leaving the impression of a misquote. My intent was to point out that unlike the future of balanced and diversified investment portfolios the future of the Canadian economy is far from peachy.

In the last 24 months the Canadian economy lost a minimum of 600,000 jobs and the media and the Government of Canada has all but ignored this fact.

In 2013 Canadian GDP exceeded $1.84 trillion US. By the end of 2021 Canadian GDP is projected to reach $1.63 trillion US. If Canadian GDP had increased by an average of 1.5% per annum between 2013 and 2021 we could have anticipated that Canadian GDP in 2021 might have exceeded $2.0 trillion US not $1.63 trillion US.

A $370 billion US shortfall in GDP growth since 2013 has had a serious impact on job creation within Canada. Continually redefining the size of the Canadian labour force cannot hide the fact that the Canadian economy failed to create over 600,000 new employment opportunities between September 2019 and September 2021.

We have quite a bit of catching up to do before the word ‘peachy’ can be applied to the Canadian economy.

Prior to the Covid 19 crisis the Canadian economy generating 300,000 new jobs per year and was expanding by an average of 2.0% per year.

was In the four years preceding the Covid 19 crisis Canadian GDP increased by an average of 2.0% per year. In 2020 Over the next five years the population of Canada will increase by 2,000,000 citizens. Prior to the Covid 19 In order to maintain just how serious provide It was tone of

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.21 at 8:21 am

@#111 HellCat
” Just like the 157,000 jobs announced late Friday night after the media turned the lights out. We’re swimming neck deep in bullshit.”

+++

I have to admit I viewed those numbers with a bit of skepticism when I heard them on the news.
I expect numbers like that during an election.
Not a month later.

With the extreme lack of skilled trades getting worse.
I can only surmise its more newly hired, full time bureaucrats and middle management types pushing emails back and forth, endless Zoom meetings to discuss options and synergies, more audits of the last few private sector companies struggling to find workers to analyze where all the skilled trades went.

Temporary foreign workers by the hundreds of thousands wont get us out of this trades shortage mess.

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.21 at 8:25 am

Gee.
Last week we hear about Christia’s single handed fight against the Commies in the Ukraine….

This week.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/first-reading-the-grand-plan-to-make-chrystia-freeland-prime-minister

What tangled webs Mr Butts weaves…..

I wonder how long it will take Butts to convince Little Potato to fall on his sword.

Nauseatingly familiar.

#126 TurnerNation on 10.13.21 at 8:51 am

Life in Kanada. Oh yeah this is like totally normal and stuff. It’s over! QC is set to fire thousands of nurses.

https://tnc.news/2021/10/12/three-bc-emergency-rooms-shutter-their-doors-locals-told-to-drive-over-an-hour-away/
“Three BC emergency rooms shutter their doors, locals told to drive over an hour away….
Interior Health has not provided details on what has caused the staffing shortages or whether it’s pandemic-related. However, the BC Nurses Union publicly voiced its opposition to BC’s order to mandate vaccines for those working in the healthcare sector. ”



War on Small Business, War of Poverty. Bye bye middle class; hello UN Serfs.

.Restaurant owners furious as Ford government, Minister MacLeod skips call (torontosun.com)

.Pandemic has forced 100 million into poverty as global solidarity ‘missing in action’: UN chief (cbc.ca)

—–
How healthy we will be! A global control system, into the Blockchain you go with the QR code. Papers please Comrade.
This War is NOT Meant to be won. It is perpetual WW3.
People don’t yet get this, 20 month in.

.AB: (CBC) A need to be “on our guard” through the winter means Alberta’s vaccine passport will be in place at least into early next year, Premier Jason Kenney said Tuesday.

#127 IHCTD9 on 10.13.21 at 8:56 am

#90 Philco on 10.12.21 at 8:29 pm

I can abuse rightoffs legally, purchasing things like skid steers. Lol.
___

The CRA doesn’t realize that these things are actually toys, instead they think they are for doing work :)

#128 the Jaguar on 10.13.21 at 9:01 am

Another reason to end CERB and get people back to work. We don’t want this mayhem drifting northward….

“NEW YORK • It is New York’s most notorious prison, often described as the world’s largest penal colony, housing criminals and mental health patients on an isolated outcrop sandwiched between the Bronx and Queens.

But Rikers Island has descended into lawlessness after inmates reportedly seized control from helpless guards, murdered fellow prisoners and crashed a bus into its outer walls.

Inmates have snatched keys from guards and freed fellow prisoners and control routes between units on the island, while staff stay away in fear of their lives, according to an investigation.

Almost a dozen people have died there this year and stabbings are commonplace amid the mayhem.

The jail, which consistently ranks as one of the worst correctional facilities in the U.S., has descended into turmoil during the coronavirus pandemic.”

Mercy.

#129 Dharma Bum on 10.13.21 at 9:10 am

You anti-vaxers are sad, sad people. – Garth
—————————————————————————————-

Ever notice the high correlation between nut jobs, whackos, idiots, and anti-vaxers?

Almost everyone I knew before COVID who was a conspiracy theorist, mentally ill, an extremist, paranoid, or just flaky in general, turned out to be an anti-vaxer.

There’s a guy I knew who was a narcissistic health nut and an electromagnetic wave paranoiac. He was a raw vegan because he believed that dietetic regime was a replacement for modern medicine. When he visited, he would bring a bag of his own food (raw vegetables and nuts and stuff) because he believed that the cooked food I prepared was poisoning mankind. He would have his house checked for electric waves or some such nonsense to ensure that his brain was safe from electromagnetism.

Crazy stuff.

He was an anti vaxer.

He got COVID.

This week he died.

And there you have it.

#130 Dharma Bum on 10.13.21 at 9:21 am

#114 Sail Away

As the owner was getting familiar with it, he had a few ‘poof- no eyebrows’ incidents and looked like Gollum’s brother that year.
——————————————————————————————

Hahahahah! That made me laugh.

Reminds me of when I was a kid, trying to light the charcoal bbq at the cottage.

I flooded the briquettes with a bottle of starter fluid, lit a match, then, with my head right up in the bin, dropped in the match.

KABOOM!

I singed off my eyebrows, the fringes of my long hair (at that time), and got an instant sunburn.

I can still smell the stench of burning hair…

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.21 at 9:29 am

@#128 The jaguar
“The jail, which consistently ranks as one of the worst correctional facilities in the U.S., has descended into turmoil during the coronavirus pandemic.”

+++

Ahhh yes .

Rikers.
A dung heap for over 100 years.
The prison population dropped from over 10,000 in the 2000’s to about 5 to 6k now.

The guards make an average salary of $US90,000 per year and have unlimited sick time.
Unlimited sick time.
So on any given shift 30% of the guards call in “sick” and leave the rest of the overworked, understaffed guards to “hold the fort”.

Apparently Covid is running rampant through the inmate population with several dying daily.
Rikers
Another reason to.
“Dont do the crime if you cant do the time.”

#132 Jim on 10.13.21 at 9:50 am

Yeah, all the 20, 30, 40 medications a day alot of Canadians are on are really keeping them healthy. They now have weekly and monthly pills instead of daily pills because Canadians are taking so much medication a day they can’t take it daily. No wonder they want universal pharmacare. Keep swallowing.

#133 IHCTD9 on 10.13.21 at 10:06 am

#101 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 9:42 pm

You can use 0 kw and still have a bill.
____

I called on this years ago, and the minimum billing was about 50.00 at the time. I wonder if you are subject to this charge if you have a net metering arrangement?

It’s tough to win if you buy a turn-key 10KW array for 100K unless you did so very young. Right now in Ontario, our rates are still being held down through a borrowing program to pay off OPG (The Wynne Liberals set this one up), so my bill is still reasonable at 130.00/mo. for 4 people.

Ontario’s electricity system is a caged disaster. McGuinty drove rates to the moon trying to be Green, then had to go right back to where he started due to the cost increases. Then he brought in “competition” which did not produce a single kilowatt, and was just a middle-man that made things more expensive. Then TOU billing. Then a one line bill that turned into 2 pages worth of random fees. Then a constant rate shuffle that seemed to include the phase of the moon as reason to change the price.

By the time Wynne finished up making things even worse, hydro was so frigged-up here in Ontario that Northerners were getting 500.00 monthly Electricity Bills. Other than the price – absolutely nothing had really changed. After this she created a crown corp to borrow money to pay part of the cost of OPG’s production. What a shock, Liberals “fixing problems” by borrowing money…

Eventually, things will have to go back to paying the actual cost of electricity. Solar might start looking good again for a lot of folks at that point.

#134 Shawn Allen on 10.13.21 at 10:19 am

Property Tax Deferrals for those over 55 steal from the young

#100 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 9:30 pm quoted me and responded

#91 Shawn Allen on 10.12.21 at 8:34 pm

Property Tax Deferrals for old people steal from the young.

It was mentioned yesterday that in B.C there is the ability defer property tax until a property is sold and to do so at a very low interest rate and only for people over age 55.

—————————————

Woah there fella, we don’t have to find an intergenerational wealth transfer under every rock and behind every tree. The deferrals came about because property taxes were rising so fast that retired people couldn’t pay them. They still do when the house is sold. Interest is negligible everywhere you look.

In fact these low interest rates rob from the old to give to the young! How is a person supposed to retire on 0.01% interest? But it’s great if you want a million dollar mortgage.

******************************
That’s the point, without the property tax deferrals some older people would have had to sell which would have freed up more houses for young people to buy – usually in good locations too.

Tax defeeral at a very low interst rate compares to far higher market interest rates on what is in effect a reverse mortage situation.

The million dollar mortgage you speak of flows into the hands of mostly far older people who do sell. It has to go someplace and that’s not to a new college graduate.

And if older people have not achieved Garth’s talked about 6 or 7% on investments I guess they are doing it wrong.

#135 Sail Away on 10.13.21 at 10:22 am

#121 Wrk.dover on 10.13.21 at 6:01 am
Oh yeah, the coming energy crunch winter….

The only energy we directly purchase is, 4 litres of gasoline per day. I track and crunch all numbers.

No electricity, no heating cost.

———-

Impressive.

That’s almost as efficient as the mighty blue grouse who migrates uphill at the start of winter, flies into a good fir tree and lives in that one tree all winter using his proprietary waterproof down warming system.

#136 DON on 10.13.21 at 10:44 am

#30 Nonplused on 10.12.21 at 3:55 pm
Hmm, another question comes to mind.

We know Volker stopped inflation in the ’80’s with what we would consider very high interest rates. But he did it in the face of what was essentially an artificial energy crisis. Once the oil embargo ended, the North Sea and Alaska came online, and cars got a whole lot smaller, energy prices and inflation stabilized.

But what will higher rates do if the energy shortage is not artificial? It takes 20 years to build a nuclear reactor, 10 of which is just for permitting. It’s not like France in the 70’s where they pumped out 52 of the things in short order. That took a national consensus, the likes of which is probably impossible today.

So what happens if we get inflation, higher rates, and stubbornly expensive energy?

************
While in lock downs demand was low and countries were said to be stock piling oil etc. So where did the energy crisis come from all of a sudden. China not wanting to use Australian coal do to a trade war is one factor. Nord Stream 2 sitting empty. Wait till we are up to full economic capacity. Two much money sloshing around the global economy.

Regardless an increase in gas prices is gonna hurt. Up to $158 a litre where I reside. This will take a bit out of consumption.

But inflation is transitory as per the Fed…same guys under ethic reviews at the moment.

#137 Damifino on 10.13.21 at 10:47 am

From Rex Murphy:

For as is it written in the Book of Climate Change: “Thou climate warriors, ye who assemble in fine hotels, and ye who squat on the highways and superglue your bottoms to the asphalt thereon, yea, all who vote Green — cold and want shall never visit ye. And much golden press coverage will be yours.”
—————————-

And this is why I love the man. Long live our treasured Newfie wordsmith.

#138 under the radar on 10.13.21 at 11:07 am

“It’s tough to win if you buy a turn-key 10KW array for 100K unless you did so very young. Right now in Ontario, our rates are still being held down through a borrowing program to pay off OPG (The Wynne Liberals set this one up), so my bill is still reasonable at 130.00/mo. for 4 people”

A turn key 10 KW can be bought and installed today for about 25k.

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.21 at 11:16 am

115 DON on 10.13.21 at 12:38 am
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fall-of-an-austrian-chancellor-the-stench-of-corruption-leads-to-kurz-s-sudden-resignation-a-77b76520-1fdd-4497-aeeb-fdb07e2e814a

Even young politician are corrupt…his career over @ 35. He was once seen as one of a kind now he’s just one of many. How about we go back to experience
——————————
If you want the news behind the news, Don’t read the English version of Der Spiegel.
It’s tailored to the short attention span of the North Americans.

#140 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.21 at 11:19 am

#137 Damifino on 10.13.21 at 10:47 am
From Rex Murphy:

For as is it written in the Book of Climate Change: “Thou climate warriors, ye who assemble in fine hotels, and ye who squat on the highways and superglue your bottoms to the asphalt thereon, yea, all who vote Green — cold and want shall never visit ye. And much golden press coverage will be yours.”
—————————-

And this is why I love the man. Long live our treasured Newfie wordsmith.
————————
Pretty pathetic, if you ask me.
But then again, to each it’s own.

#141 Don Guillermo on 10.13.21 at 11:32 am

Pamela passed us yesterday with minimal problems to the Cabo area. It is in Mazatlán as I type but came in as a Cat 1 so damage there is less than expected (so far fingers crossed). Our flight over today was cancelled. Next flight is Friday which is just as well.
————————————————
#67 IHCTD9 on 10.12.21 at 6:46 pm

Don’t believe you can sell your power back to the grid (ie the government) here in Ontario. All you could do is feed the low cost power from the battery back to your house during peak rates. Most of the typical Ontario hydro bill consists of things that aren’t kWh’s used anyway. You’d have to live to be 400 to win with this plan.

We used to have a feed in system (microfit), which allowed you to sell power into the grid, but it’s over and done with.
______________________________________

I went to a seminar a few years ago in Maz on this. We’re looking to move from our condo to a house and I’m interested in solar for pool heat and maybe to offset summer A/C costs. The presenter was a young electrical engineer from Calgary who married local and was raising a family in Mexico. My main take aways were
a) the same panel is 4 x more efficient in Maz than YYC mostly because of latitude
b) the grid in AB would buy back power at 1:4 while CFE in Mexico buys back at 1:1.

Not sure if these buy back rates are valid today.

***********************************
#114 Sail Away on 10.13.21 at 12:24 am

That said… the best solution by far is to channel Don G and go south for the winter. The airplane fuel used can be offset by heating fuel saved for net positive carbon effect.
———————————————
Some cost saving are:
– dropping vehicle insurance to fire & theft
– not buying gas for 6 mos
– cell phone on holiday mode
– cable TV suspended
– minimal use of utilities

Extra costs are:
– snow removal
– paying someone to check on house every couple days
– out of country health insurance
– local cell at $10USD/mos unlimited calls throughout Canada/Mexico and USA

Internet is kept active to support inhouse monitoring. Once in Mexico the cost of living is 1/3 to 1/4 of YYC and a lot more fun!

#142 Nonplused on 10.13.21 at 11:43 am

#134 Shawn Allen on 10.13.21 at 10:19 am

“That’s the point, without the property tax deferrals some older people would have had to sell which would have freed up more houses for young people to buy – usually in good locations too.”

I don’t see the justice in evicting one person for the financial benefit of another. I would think these old folks are just as entitled to live in the house they bought and paid for over many years as anyone.

Or maybe we should just do a “Logan’s Run” thing and vaporize everyone when they reach a certain age? We could free up a lot of housing that way. Just keep lowering the vaporization age until your housing objectives are realized.

Alternatively, you could be patient. Everyone sells eventually. Forcing old people out of their houses is not going to create one single additional housing unit, as the old people still have to live somewhere. At least if they have not reached vaporization age yet.

#143 Mickey on 10.13.21 at 11:47 am

#140 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.21 at 11:19 am
#137 Damifino on 10.13.21 at 10:47 am
From Rex Murphy:

For as is it written in the Book of Climate Change: “Thou climate warriors, ye who assemble in fine hotels, and ye who squat on the highways and superglue your bottoms to the asphalt thereon, yea, all who vote Green — cold and want shall never visit ye. And much golden press coverage will be yours.”
—————————-

And this is why I love the man. Long live our treasured Newfie wordsmith.
————————
Pretty pathetic, if you ask me.
But then again, to each it’s own.
***************************
Quite logical for a wordbutcher not to recognize a wordsmith.

#144 KLNR on 10.13.21 at 11:50 am

looks like CERB isn’t whats keeping folks from going back to their low pay service sector jobs. they just retrained and found better paying work.

#145 Nonplused on 10.13.21 at 11:52 am

#120 Wrk.dover on 10.13.21 at 5:56 am

“The anti solar power taliban like cavemen on this site are probably anti-vaxers too! Or unable to trust a person with no reason to mislead them.”

So what’s your apartment number again? I want to send you a card.

#146 DON on 10.13.21 at 12:19 pm

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.21 at 11:16 am
115 DON on 10.13.21 at 12:38 am
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fall-of-an-austrian-chancellor-the-stench-of-corruption-leads-to-kurz-s-sudden-resignation-a-77b76520-1fdd-4497-aeeb-fdb07e2e814a

Even young politician are corrupt…his career over @ 35. He was once seen as one of a kind now he’s just one of many. How about we go back to experience
——————————
If you want the news behind the news, Don’t read the English version of Der Spiegel.
It’s tailored to the short attention span of the North Americans.

****

I hear yah.

Leider spreche ich kein Deutsch.

That’s why I take everything in the media with a grain of salt.

Can you provide some insight here? I have been following this wunder kid since his first got elected but don’t have the eyes on the ground perspective.

By the way i knew you would chime in. cheers

#147 Damifino on 10.13.21 at 12:54 pm

#140 Ponzius Pilatus

Pretty pathetic, if you ask me.
———————-

That’s why I didn’t ask you.

#148 IHCTD9 on 10.13.21 at 12:56 pm

#134 Shawn Allen on 10.13.21 at 10:19 am

That’s the point, without the property tax deferrals some older people would have had to sell which would have freed up more houses for young people to buy – usually in good locations too.

____

The deferral allows the equity no BC wrinklie expected or wanted – to pay for the tax increases at point of sale. But you want them forcibly driven out via taxes due on receipt based on current values? There is no chance they could ever pay them – they didn’t sign on for million dollar home ownership. IMHO, the deferral is the perfect remedy for both the homeowners and the government(s).

You can’t just force them out because they’ll get a mil tax free when they sell as a consolation prize. Some folks are intimately attached to their family homes – especially if you’ve lived there for 40-50 years. Plus it’s their damn house, and their decision. The deferral is the right way to go.

It should be means tested though for sure, but we quit doing that in 2015.

#149 Shawn Allen on 10.13.21 at 1:16 pm

Subsidize the old to keep their houses?

#142 Nonplused on 10.13.21 at 11:43 am responded:

#134 Shawn Allen on 10.13.21 at 10:19 am

“That’s the point, without the property tax deferrals some older people would have had to sell which would have freed up more houses for young people to buy – usually in good locations too.”

I don’t see the justice in evicting one person for the financial benefit of another. I would think these old folks are just as entitled to live in the house they bought and paid for over many years as anyone.

************************
Absolutely they are entitled to keep their houses if they can afford it. What I don’t think they are entitled to is a permanent holiday from property taxes until the house is sold. This is a subsidy from young to old and we have far too much of that. The “Greatest Generation” who fought in WWII have died off. They have been followed by the “Entitled Generation” which describes an awful lot of seniors today.

#150 Shawn Allen on 10.13.21 at 1:52 pm

#148 IHCTD9 on 10.13.21 at 12:56 pm

The forced to sell due to property tax therefore do something argument…

Those who can’t afford property tax can also get a reverse mortgage or line of credit. That would be a market solution. Thought we were conservatives here. Or do we just hate government when it gives money to others but like it if we might benefit?

And of course when property values soared 5 fold to a Million, the property tax has generally not gone up anywhere close to 5 times, has it? What is your property tax and property value? Mine is about 1% of the value of the house. When I bought the house 26 years ago it was closer to 2%. House value quadrupled but property tax only doubled because that’s the way property taxes work. They go up on average with the municipality’s revenue needs NOT property values. Only if your houses increases more than average do you get a bigger than average property tax increase.

#151 Fred on 10.14.21 at 7:44 am

Nonplused, property tax deferrals are as you say maybe to help seniors with high property tax bills but I don’t see that is the main reason. They could of easily made it that a 2% a year increase would be paid and the rest be deferred or do what they do in Florida, your property taxes only go up after you sell and buy another property.

As for interest rates, you are doing too much business with the big banks, I have many accounts with savings to GICs that pay 1.25% to 2.6%. I know you are probably just exaggerating 0.01% but I get it, interest rates are low.

#152 Property Taxes and Property Assessment Values on 10.15.21 at 1:50 pm

Shawn Allen, you forget to mention that many property assessments are usually over estimated and people need to fight back through tribunals to keep them down.

Also, the net value should be considered, the capital gains I pay on a property is based on all my expenses deducted, property taxes paid, real estate commission, lawyer fees etc.

If my property is worth $600,000 but after all my selling expenses, costs, taxes, I only keep $550,000, then why am I paying property taxes on the $600,000 gross value and not the net value of $550,000. There are alot of problems with property taxes and property taxation that must be fixed to reflect the true value of a property and the property taxes that are be used for this.