The alarm

Is this it? The beginning of the end of the cheapest money you’ve seen in a lifetime?

Dunno. But the market wasn’t taking a lot of chances Tuesday as bond yields surged in both Canada and the States, equities swooned, techs were spanked and the immediate alarm was raised that you may have just days left to lock in a sub-2% home loan. Oh yeah, and this came on the same day Canada’s housing agency hit the red button saying the country’s now “at high risk of a sharp correction in home valuations” because a house-horny nation has succumbed to FOMO and gone nutso.

So the bond thing’s intense. A week ago Canada five-year debt was yielding 0.86%. Today it’s at 1.1%. That’s an increase of almost a third in seven days. In the US the ten-year Treasury went to 1.55%, which is a 20-basis-point romp in five trading sessions. Now Wells Fargo says the Bank of Canada will be starting its rate-tightening cycle in mid-22, and before then the asset-buying stimulus spigot will be turned off. The yield curve is goin’ up. US bonds are back at 2017 levels, before you ever heard of Wuhan, spike proteins or social distancing.

Bond yields in Canada and the US surge higher

Inflation’s running hot in Canada (4%) and the US (5%). Oil prices have climbed sharply. Natgas suddenly costs 10% more. Governments continue to spend insanely. One-quarter of all the American dollars now in circulation did not exist 18 months ago, my pal Ed Pennock reminds us.

CMHC, as I mentioned, was rattled even before Tuesday happened. The housing agency says real estate prices have become unmoored from economic reality, soaring by up to 30% in a year even as the pandemic continues and incomes stagnate. Its market risk assessment just blew past “moderate” to become “high”. It confirms what you know in your bones: the property market has outrun the general economy. Demand has been pulled from the future. Debt is off the charts. Prices have “detached from labour incomes.”

In a scenario like this, all it would take is a shock for the market to recoil, with buyers retreating, sales plunging and prices nobody would pay – until they corrected.

And, yup, a yield surge might be the harbinger of such an event.

“Any rate watcher knows that borrowing costs historically rise amid above-target inflation, surging inflation expectations, supply/demand imbalances, labour shortages and other signs of economic recovery. That’s where we find ourselves today,” writes mortgage broker/blogger Rob McLister in the Globe today. It means mortgage rates could be “at least 50 basis points” higher soon.

Now half a point isn’t going to crash real estate. No way. But combined with (a) slagging sales, (b) basically no inventory available, (c) insane current prices, (d) the return of the slimy little pathogen, (e) Chrystia’s coming tax hikes and (f) the fact 90% of people without houses cannot afford one at these levels…then anything’s possible.

Yeah, yeah. I know everybody thinks rates can never move and ‘the government wouldn’t let that happen’, but that’s not reality. Nor can urban single-family home prices drift casually towards $3 million

A year from now we’ll wonder what we were thinking. As we queue for a booster.

First, defiance. And then, a trim.

Remember Donnie the barber?

Sure ya do. My colleague Ryan blogged here about the East End Toronto entrepreneur who defied the pandemic by starting a new business, the Kingston Barber Shop. This week Donnie looked up and saw Michael Kovrig – one-half of the globally-famous ‘Two Michaels’ – sitting in his chair.

Kovrig and Michael Spavour were taken hostage in China by authorities in retaliation for the Canadian detention of Huawei exec Meng Wanzhou. They languished in prison for a thousand days, then were released within hours of her reaching an accommodation with the US Justice Department. Yes, Beijing has sunk to the level of a terrorist organization.

“Michael’s sister booked the appointment with Donnie and he was shocked when Kovrig walked through the doors,” Ryan says. “Donnie told me that Michael is healthy, in great spirits and even discussed some of what he had to endure while in prison during the hour long haircut. He shared one story with Donnie of how he walked seven kilometers a day in his cell to help fill the time and keep mentally and physically fit.”

Welcome back, Michael. Grace. Strength. Dignity.

About the (dog) picture: “I thought I’d give it a try to get our canine a coveted spot on your blog,” writes Harvey from northern BC. “This is Misha and she’s almost six years old. We got her when she was four months old from a working family who realized leaving a Mini Australian Shepard alone in a townhouse all day everyday is not a good idea. She loves food, walks, swimming, and tormenting our cat. She is loved, and she is happy. I have been reading your blog for ten years and look forward to many more as the financial climate continues to evolve.”

163 comments ↓

#1 Felix on 09.28.21 at 2:08 pm

Resilience. Intelligence. Grace. Strength. Dignity.

This is why the Two Michaels qualify to be cat owners.

#2 -=withwings=- on 09.28.21 at 2:10 pm

Buyers set the prices. Not sellers. Not the government.

Buyers. (With the help of CMHC)

Making it easier to buy will increase prices.

The libs are going to make it easier to buy. Guess what that will do?

#3 none on 09.28.21 at 2:10 pm

Man I hope the housing correction happens. For no other reason that to just make a little sense and add a bit of sanity to the world.

Buy or rent. I don’t care that much. Personally I like to rent but rental costs (in victoria) are extreme.

#4 Immigrant man on 09.28.21 at 2:10 pm

“Yes, Beijing has sunk to the level of a terrorist organization.”
Sunk? It was always there. It’s Canada is shrinking its cajones (inverse to GTA RE prices) and gives the bullies the confidence.

#5 Nick on 09.28.21 at 2:13 pm

.
Stock prices dropped today.
Housing did not.
Buy a house in lower Brainland.

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 2:17 pm

Here comes inflation….

Good to see Kovrig out and about and posing while getting a hair cut.
Seems to be adjusting to his freedom faster than the “experts” predicted.

#7 lisa on 09.28.21 at 2:27 pm

Welcome home, Michael.

#8 S.Bby on 09.28.21 at 2:28 pm

I used to think your way but I’ve taken the red pill and can see the new reality now. The reality is in no way can interest rates rise substantially without crushing the economy. This is the post 2008 economic world now and the game has changed. CBs may diddle with rates a bit but they cannot stop QE without crashing the entire system and they know it. As long as QE is in place which will be forever there will not be higher rates. Extend and pretend is the new normal.

Hopium addict. – Garth

#9 604Sam on 09.28.21 at 2:31 pm

Mischa looks like a good doggo

#10 CL on 09.28.21 at 2:33 pm

CMHC is a moral hazard insuring the banks where premiums are paid for by the mortgagee to protect the banks but then sound the “alarm” at the same time. Why wouldn’t banks lend all day long.

If anyone was truly worried there are many levers to pull to induce a market correction or at least stop the climb and insanity.

40 year amort’s are coming back to make housing more “affordable”.

#11 ogdoad on 09.28.21 at 2:33 pm

Had to go to a hospital once while I was in China. THAT, was an interesting experience. Compensation made up for the memories though – hopefully the same for the two Mikes.

As for rates? Go up, stay low…personally don’t really care. Buy a place that you can afford, where you will stay and build community for the majority of your life and the rest, as you Garth so eloquently state, is just noise. Oh, and get someone smarter than you to manage your $$$$….how easy is that?

Og

Og

#12 Elon Fanboy on 09.28.21 at 2:38 pm

China really sucks, on many fronts. I have no desire to ever travel there and any Canadian who does is a fool.

My son made the mistake of connecting thru a Chinese airport on the way to Thailand a couple of years ago. Upon arrival at said airport all foreign nationals were separated and had their passports confiscated by a Chinese official who spoke almost no English. No idea why and no explanation from the Airport staff. I was getting frantic texts from my son (first trip abroad without parents). Eventually all the passports were returned.

Longest hour of my life.

The world has the Chinese to thank for this nasty pathogen, and there looks to be a good chance it was bio engineered in a lab, and escaped….or was it deliberate?

We won’t mention that US media darling Fauchi was upto his eyeballs with involvement and funding of research at that Wuhan Lab.

Try and buy anything on Amazon that isn’t a cheap Chinese knockoff. They are exceptional at copying and stealing intellectual property.

The CCP consider that all foreign nationals abroad are defacto agents of the state, whether they want to be or not. I have to wonder how many spies we have in our institutions and companies?

And of course all the human rights abuses.

The media likes to paint Russia as our bogeyman. In reality it’s China.

#13 Justin S on 09.28.21 at 2:40 pm

DELETED

#14 mj on 09.28.21 at 2:40 pm

makes me wonder why people are rushing into the bond market. Could it be for safety? Do they think something is going to happen, and the bond market is the safest place right now.

#15 Woke up this morning... on 09.28.21 at 2:42 pm

Why are the Covid numbers still reported as total since day 1?

That’s like the news telling you how many car accidents happened since beginning of CAR when repairing the latest car accident.

I think active cases only should be reported, nothing else.

I don’t need to hear about the 1,610,000 people when 1,560,000 of those are fine. Seems like a BIG NUMBERS bias/spin to me to be honest. Stand down already on this method of reporting MSM.

What is this? Ms. Pac Man High-Score attempt?

#16 Alberta Ed on 09.28.21 at 2:42 pm

It will be interesting to see whether Sock Boy continues his Knee-Pad Diplomacy with China.

#17 Prince Polo on 09.28.21 at 2:53 pm

Go Michael Go! Anything else you wrote about today, is just noise for the B&D crowd.

#18 East Berlin on 09.28.21 at 2:58 pm

In my personal view, little about this case or the key players in it is what is appears to be as reported by MSM.

Years will pass before we learn the truth, as usual.

And that is all I’m going to say about that.

#19 PastThePeak on 09.28.21 at 2:59 pm

Welcome back, Michael. Grace. Strength. Dignity.
=============
Indeed. Glad they were released – faster than I thought. True survivors of the horror show that is the Chinese Communist Party. China is the ultimate technical dystopian authoritarian society…but that has been the case for many years now for those willing to look…it is only now that it moved a bit more into the mainstream (not for Liberals though…)
+++++++++++++++++++++

#8 S.Bby on 09.28.21 at 2:28 pm
…”This is the post 2008 economic world now and the game has changed. CBs may diddle with rates a bit but they cannot stop QE without crashing the entire system and they know it. As long as QE is in place which will be forever there will not be higher rates.
===========

That is partially true, but that description is primarily regarding the US Fed (for now). They are truly trapped and will not be able to end QE – or if they do it won’t be for long (markets won’t fund the US gov $3T of new debt each year – + rollover – at interest rates the gov’t or corps will want to bare).

This isn’t (yet) an issue for the BoC. They can stop their QE for awhile at least.

But remember – interest rates are ultimately set by the market, and CBs can’t always control it, so I wouldn’t make the bet that ‘interest rates’ (that affect *you*) can never rise…

#20 SasktoAB on 09.28.21 at 3:01 pm

Welcome home, Michael!

#21 Dave on 09.28.21 at 3:02 pm

The Feds should ban Hwawaei and expropriate Meng’s multimillion dollar Vancouver properties.

#22 Leftover on 09.28.21 at 3:04 pm

Ah yes, China.

Been there and was approached to do a little business.

Nope. Not ever. Will survive.

#23 Jenn on 09.28.21 at 3:04 pm

I just want to say that I had tears in my eyes when I read that Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavour were on their way home last week. It is so heart warming to see Michael Kovrig look so well and do something so normal as get his hair cut. I suspect one or both of them sure will have an amazing book to write should they choose to.
As always, love your blog Garth. I have learned so much from it and always enjoy the pictures.

#24 PastThePeak on 09.28.21 at 3:05 pm

#14 mj on 09.28.21 at 2:40 pm
makes me wonder why people are rushing into the bond market. Could it be for safety? Do they think something is going to happen, and the bond market is the safest place right now.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

People are not rushing into the bond market – there is more of a selling momentum. That is why the “rates” are moving up – because the prices of the bonds are moving down. Rising rates = bonds being purchased at lower prices.

#25 Editrix on 09.28.21 at 3:19 pm

Two things – Mr. Kingston Barbershop is a genius if he bought the building. All the blocks across from the Hunt Club are going to get bought up to build condos.

When the housing market crashes (as long as it’s a 50% drop, like in 1989), I intend on snapping up a couple of Upper Beach houses and using a management company either to rent the houses back to the sellers or just to rent them out.

#26 James on 09.28.21 at 3:19 pm

I have a few words regarding China.
Huawei purloins intellectual property and that’s how they got where they are today.

Nortel
Cisco Systems
T-Mobile US
PanOptis
ZTE
In 2020, the United States Department of Justice charged Huawei with racketeering and conspiring to steal trade secrets from six U.S. firms.
Will never own a piece of equipment made by them and I hope that our dumb ass leader does the right thing by not allowing Huawei technology in this country.

#27 facts on 09.28.21 at 3:20 pm

The other side of the Michael Kovrig story: he is part of the International Crisis Group, which got the initial seed funding from George Soros, who is a persona non grata in China. ICG is described as an NGO to promote regime changes.

Mr. Kovrig worked in China “under the guise of a businessman and false pretext of commerce”.
He was an easy target for China to use for hostage exchange.

https://www.thecanadafiles.com/articles/michael-kovrig-and-spavor-are-spies-despite-obfuscations-of-canadas-mainstream-media

Michael not only got a haircut, he also got the covid shot.

“I want everyone to know this, vaccines are the best way to combat this disease”.
– #MichaelKovrig

https://twitter.com/Kyr0Nagib/status/1442661382487527430

#28 Faron on 09.28.21 at 3:20 pm

#168 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 1:34 pm

You’re talking at a tangent to the point TN was jibber-jabbering about — that the hospital crisis in Alberta is due to long-term medical care cuts. That’s a disgusting deflection by any means of looking at it. Not surprising from TN, but surprising you leapt at it (because it echoes an agenda of yours apparently) The crisis arose because Kenney opened up Alta too early and continues to refuse to introduce needed measures. That’s it.

Regarding the long-term issue. I don’t disagree that it’s a problem. But, again, biggest cuts came under Harper. Look at the plot. It’s been a long-time goal of conservatives to introduce privatised medical care to Canada, or increase it’s presence. They will tell you this is to increase access, but the reality is they are sucking up to the medical mega-corps and their lobbyists. Making the public system untenably weak is one way to fool the public into thinking this is a good idea even though decades of practice show that a fully socialized (laughing in my head at how readers of this will be triggered by that word) system is the best for all nations that have tried it.

This doesn’t excuse Trudeau from having failed to improve the situation, but you can’t blame the COVID overflow on the cuts and you can’t blame the cuts on anyone but the PM under whose rule it happened and that was Harper. You are yapping about a problem we agree exists, but one that is not primary to the COVID overflows. At all.

#165 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.28.21 at 12:40 pm

Gimme a break, you would cry at any and all increases in any budget segment save for the military and police. At least own up to it. Jeepers

#29 Shawn Allen on 09.28.21 at 3:20 pm

Confiscate Meng’s house?

#21 Dave on 09.28.21 at 3:02 pm
The Feds should ban Hwawaei and expropriate Meng’s multimillion dollar Vancouver properties.

*****************************
She has not been accused of much less convicted of any crime in Canada.

Are you suggesting that Canada abandon the rule of law because we think or know that China has?

It’s actually a bizarre suggestion. An uneducated suggestion. A juvenile suggestion. One worthy of the likes of toddler-brained Trump.

What we could perhaps do is send our legal cost bill to the U.S. for payment in doing their bidding. We could also review how it possibly could take over two years to conduct an extradition hearing.

In better news I imagine Meng has been contributing to the B.C. economy for the taxes and upkeep on her house and self and her massive legal bills. Some lawyers must be eternally grateful for her long stay which they dragged out.

#30 Doug in London on 09.28.21 at 3:23 pm

What I’ve read here is consistent with what I’ve heard and read elsewhere. This higher inflation and other factors are coming together will likely lead to higher interest rates. We could even have some years of stagflation like in the 1970s. While for years some so called experts have been saying interest rates will be low for all eternity, whenever someone makes such a prediction it’s good reason to be skeptical. I’m reminded of some genius who said, in 1929, that stocks will remain on a permanently high plateau. The low interest rates of the last 20 years could end up being as much an anomaly as the high rates of 1981. What to do? I’ll hold on to my CPD, XPF, and ZPF funds, the ones that have been unloved since 2015 if not earlier.

#31 Linda on 09.28.21 at 3:25 pm

Misha looks like a bundle of frisk:)

The two Michael’s were indeed taken hostage in retaliation for Meng’s detention, despite denials that the two events were linked. Release, ditto. Glad they are back home.

Speaking of cause/effect, how much of the current market ruckus is due to inflation being higher than what the central banks want to see? I still think the official numbers are not showing the true picture but regardless of how the numbers are manipulated there is no doubt that prices have increased & not just for housing.

#32 Rook on 09.28.21 at 3:26 pm

At the risk of sounding cranky – and I am, but at the risk of SOUNDING like I am – I’m not sure housing prices will be ALLOWED to fall, regardless of where the BoC sets the rates. Especially given Trudeau’s desire to keep the market goosed via the home savings account, tax write-offs, and that shared equity mortgage thing. Their actions show keeping the housing prices up is right up there with health care in their priorities list.

As we all embark on this grand modern monetary theory experiment, if the government can print and fund all the money it wants (assuming Stephanie Kelton of ‘The Deficit Myth’ is right, and everything I’ve ever learned about economics is wrong) then there’s nothing stopping the government from printing another couple hundred or so billion to bail out the home owners who are in trouble. Can’t let their retirement plans of cashing in their wealth fail, because that voting bloc cannot be abandoned, lest the Other Team promise to bail them out.

And, against this, we have: nurses (formerly hailed as front-line heroes) being laid off/fired for vaccine resistance. An oil shortage (but don’t call it one) in the UK. Beijing cutting power to factories because coal is so expensive, which means no production. Shipping ports backed up on the west coast. Inflation everywhere for everything (except the ‘basket of goods’ we keep using as a measure). Oil hitting $80 a barrel. Winter coming. Apparently Kirkland has warned Costco that they won’t be able to meet demand for paper goods – TP, towels, etc – so look for limits to start on those again. Plus Mu, Nu, Xi and whatever other Greek letter comes next for Covid.

And yet still house prices keep going up. And we haven’t opened the borders to immigrants (who bring wealth, and buy), yet. And prices will go DOWN? Other than that blip in 2016-2017 when central banks tried increasing rates, then had to cut them right back again because the market croaked, how can they do it now when it’s too-er bigger-er to fail?

Anyways, keep up the good work Garth. I hope to have your firm managing my meagre wealth some day. In the meantime, I’ll keep following the sage investment advice and stay diversified.

#33 Tragically-OHIP on 09.28.21 at 3:31 pm

Recently I tripped up on some comedy by Russell Brand, then onto what he does today.

It is shocking that he seems to be the voice of reason and is amplifying relevant information.

Scary thing is that NHS – UK’s public health is being converted into private US insurance style system apparently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4OgTtNy53Y

My goodness…is that what’s happening as we are completely distracted and misdirected? Is that what is being planed for Canada next?

You’d have to collapse the system first probably, right? You’d have to have influence from the inside, right?

#34 Nottawa Housing Bust on 09.28.21 at 3:42 pm

Rates are rising. There is no stopping it now. The US Fed went from “Not even thinking about thinking of raising” to we need to start tapering in the span of what…. 9 months.

If you want a fixed rate listen to Garth. Lock in now.

As for the housing market… well think back to Mid Mar early April when RE agents were saying “you better get in because we dont see rates rising or prices moving any time soon”. Yeah, Id say they had NO IDEA WHAT THE HELL THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT! There is a correction coming (in fact its already started look at lack of bidding wars in alot of markets) and no GOV help will be offered, we are broke.

Good luck to all.

#35 Oakville Rocks! on 09.28.21 at 3:44 pm

WOW – nice to see one of the Michael’s looking good. I cannot imagine what he had to endure while dealing with the senselessness of it all.

I have been to China and would like to go back. It is an interesting country with interesting people. Considering China’s insane security law which gives them the power to jail you based on anything you may have written on social media – who would risk it? Considering the two Michael’s – China has no shame about detaining foreigners on completely fictitious charges.

It is hard to understand how eager the NHL is to send its players to Beijing this winter or Canadian nationals of Chinese descent volunteering to try out for the Chinese Olympic hockey team so China does not completely embarrass itself at ice hockey.

The only smart path for the future is for all western nations to completely divest from China and as much as possible keep China out of our critical supply chains.

They are not a trustworthy or honest partner.

#36 East Berlin on 09.28.21 at 3:47 pm

#27 facts

The other side of the Michael Kovrig story: he is part of the International Crisis Group, which got the initial seed funding from George Soros, who is a persona non grata in China. ICG is described as an NGO to promote regime changes.

Mr. Kovrig worked in China “under the guise of a businessman and false pretext of commerce”.
He was an easy target for China to use for hostage exchange.

https://www.thecanadafiles.com/articles/michael-kovrig-and-spavor-are-spies-despite-obfuscations-of-canadas-mainstream-media

Michael not only got a haircut, he also got the covid shot.

“I want everyone to know this, vaccines are the best way to combat this disease”.
– #MichaelKovrig

https://twitter.com/Kyr0Nagib/status/1442661382487527430

*************************

…just your regular everyday normal guys…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detention_of_Michael_Spavor_and_Michael_Kovrig

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Spavor

“Spavor has strong personal ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.”

#37 Papadams on 09.28.21 at 4:00 pm

If rates rise, can’t they just reduce the stress test and keep the housing party rolling?

#38 Morrey on 09.28.21 at 4:06 pm

Vancouver and Victoria were excluded by CHMC’s latest alarm. Lotus land continuous to be a safe place in which to buy 3million$ shacks.

#39 Xilef on 09.28.21 at 4:08 pm

#1 Felix

Resilience. Intelligence. Grace. Strength. Dignity.

This is why the Two Michaels qualify to be cat owners.

———————-

MEOW…like any and every animal out there, making the right sounds to get fed.

Intelligence…indeed.

#40 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 09.28.21 at 4:13 pm

What stops the gov’t to repeal B-20 and reintroduce 40 year mortgages if rates go up?

#41 Yorkville renter on 09.28.21 at 4:22 pm

I’m woth Dave 21.

Confiscate ALL of Meng’s property in Canada.. sell it… give $$$ to Michaels as compensation.

Meng is persona non grata in Canada!!!

What did she do to hurt anyone here? The arrest was Trump’s folly. – Garth

#42 Billy Buoy on 09.28.21 at 4:22 pm

A nothing burger in the big picture…

Wake us up if the 10 yr bond gets to 1.85%

The annual US Debt ceiling farce?

Just shaking out weak hands so the big boys can buy the dip, as per usual.

Rates rise? They can’t over .75% from here or else everything crashes…

#43 Dolce Vita on 09.28.21 at 4:22 pm

Rates might go up Garth. I’m not saying they won’t with adverse effects on the Cdn RE market.

I think instead it’s better to look at it as an investment.

Here’s a US chart on the Cdn RE index, dozens out there but I picked this one as it was handy, interactive and covers the last 51 years:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS

Pop in 1970’s index of 37, 2021’s index of 150 for a period of 51 years in any online compounded annual growth rate calculator and you end up with this return:

2.78%

Google this:

“What is the average return of the S&P 500 over the last 50 years?”

and you get:

10.9%

or in the past 10 years = 13.9%, the past 5 years = 100.74%, past year = 30.50%.

There’s the single asset investment/retirement/borrow against etc. strategy that Cdns love so much and are like Gollum with Precious vs. Mr. Market.

Some Precious that is.

The S&P 500 over a 50 year period provided a return this many times more than PRECIOUS:

3.92 times.

From the above chart you can see it was mostly recessions that lowered the Cdn RE index but it bounced back soon enough other than 1990 to 2000 where real gains were flat.

——————

A nation of Gollum’s. A nation of the financially illiterate.

It has to be a disease.

#44 Faron on 09.28.21 at 4:26 pm

#32 Rook on 09.28.21 at 3:26 pm

At the risk of sounding cranky – and I am, but at the risk of SOUNDING like I am – I’m not sure housing prices will be ALLOWED to fall

This isn’t China. If demand slips to zero, prices will fall and there ain’t nothing to be done about it.

Contrary to Ryan’s assertion, we haven’t had a real recession since the GFC. The recession from COVID was only a technical one. So, we are still due. That will come with a housing crash and, I think, some pretty hard times.

My thoughts are coloured by a trip to Tofino last weekend where spending and excess are on massive display. 12 years ago, they weren’t. Sure, Canada has grown, but I think there’s a lot of excess cash floating around that will dry up in coming years. The fall will feedback with RE.

#45 AM in MN on 09.28.21 at 4:26 pm

Yes, Beijing has sunk to the level of a terrorist organization.

——————————————————–

When was it not?

The Chinese Communist Party is the biggest, most successful terrorist organization in the world. 100 years of violence and intimidation, with no end is sight, and no western backbone to take them on.

#46 Dave on 09.28.21 at 4:37 pm

I thought the vax worked. Why boosters?

#47 WTF on 09.28.21 at 4:39 pm

Yes Sir, an emphatic welcome home to the Michaels!!

As far as the prognosticators and agencies related to housing. NOW they are concerned about housing prices and debt? Some of us clued in 10 yrs ago………of course we are simple observers not the people who have the tools and staff mandate to truly dig into the quagmire governments have created.

Just Wonderful.

#48 yorkville renter on 09.28.21 at 4:39 pm

What did she do to hurt anyone here? The arrest was Trump’s folly. – Garth

The arrest was done because we were following international law by arresting someone on the Interpol list. we were doing what we were required to do, as good global citizens.

Our government doesn’t decide innocence or guilt – we only follow what we’re required to do.

Meng was aware of the situation with “The two Michaels”… I would love to hear that she was angered by the Chinese governments actions, but I think she was happy it happened so she could return to her gilded life.

She is an accessory and beneficiary to her Government’s blatant overreach (read: kidnapping).

So… she can pay the price for their transgressions.

In other words, she did nothing personally and you want to steal her possessions for ideological reasons. Sounds like you’d be right at home in the CCP. – Garth

#49 yorkville renter on 09.28.21 at 4:42 pm

#36
“Spavor has strong personal ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un”

And? How is this relevant to being kidnapped?

If anything, it should help as NK only remains because China allows it.

#50 Do we have all the facts on 09.28.21 at 4:47 pm

# 15 Woke up this morning

During the 365 days from the first death attributed to the Covid 19 virus in Canada 2.5% of the deaths of those who tested positive were recorded as being caused by the Covid 19 virus.

In the 195 days that followed the first year of the Covid crisis the deaths of 0.74 % of 711,250 citizens who tested positive were recorded as being caused by the Covid 19 virus.

Our would think that a 70% decrease in the percentage of those infected who died from the Covid 19 virus would be good news. Not in this crazy world.

#51 Dolce Vita on 09.28.21 at 4:47 pm

#46 Dave

Think less.

https://i.imgur.com/rvDCKGZ.png

#52 Sail Away on 09.28.21 at 4:48 pm

#41 Yorkville renter on 09.28.21 at 4:22 pm

‘What did [Meng] do to hurt anyone here? The arrest was Trump’s folly. – Garth’

——–

Of course Meng shouldn’t be persecuted by Canada.

But…Trump’s folly? How?

It appears from what is disseminated that Huawei did indeed violate US sanctions.

From Wikipedia:

‘Meng agreed to a statement of facts that said she had made untrue statements to HSBC to enable transactions in the U.S., at least some of which supported Huawei’s work in Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions, but was allowed to formally plead “not guilty” to her key charges.’

#53 Calm Down on 09.28.21 at 4:51 pm

The Biden admin announced yesterday that the release of the Canadians had nothing to due with the release of Meng.

It was all one big mistake – Trump’s fault. Now that Trump is gone you can trust in your government again.

Nothing to see, carry on.

Apparently not. – Garth

#54 That guy on 09.28.21 at 4:59 pm

About time the two Michaels were welcomed home. Time to ban the sale and use of Huawei devices in Canada, and ban the purchase of businesses and land in Canada by Chinese SOEs and their subsidiaries.

#55 Bonnie knows best on 09.28.21 at 5:00 pm

B.C. data shows dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases among school-aged children.

After being warned months in advance with data from other jurisdictions ahead of us that this would happen, as well as not moving on fixing ventilation or any recommendation posed a year ago for the schools, we now find reality setting in and a good to be reactive, yet again.

Full closures of schools happening.

Slow clap.

Avoid being a teacher at all costs. Isn’t worth it. Glorified baby sitter that must carry on at all costs. It is for the kids. Enjoy being thrown under bus.

And even though we are banging are heads against walls here in BC where our numbers are double that of Ontario these days, it could always be worse. You could be stuck in Alberta or an extension of Alberta in Kelowna where surgeries have been all but cancelled to free up resources.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 5:01 pm

@#28 Faron
“The crisis arose because Kenney opened up Alta too early and continues to refuse to introduce needed measures. That’s it.”

+++

You keep focusing on Alberta when the shortage of Hospital Beds is a NATIONAL problem.
Kenny is an idiot and Alberta is paying the price.
No argument there.

The numbers dont lie.

Immigration hasnt stopped ( until Covid) increasing the population and the number of Hospital beds per capital are down from 350 beds per 100,000 people in 2000 to 250 beds per 100,000 in 2019.

If the Liberals are going to embrace immigrants as the tax paying saviors of our economy then at least they could build the hospitals to improve the status quo.

Hell, we’re all growing old.

The silver tsunami of hip operations, knee replacements, dementia care…..is heading here fast.

And as I said before EVERYONE was complaining about hospital wait times for years before Covid.

If you have a family doctor you have won the lottery.
Good luck with our “Universal Health Care in the years ahead.

Trudeau and Freeland’s brilliant 2022 budget with higher taxes will target the “rich” ie Doctors.

The exodus of Doctors to the south will continue as the wait times here increase along with immigration numbers….

But you just keep telling yourself Kanada’s health care is “#1” while we continue to drop in international rankings.

Where were we last year?
10th out of 11 countries surveyed?

https://torontosun.com/news/national/canada-second-last-in-ranking-of-high-income-health-care-systems

No biggie.
More taxes will help…..

#57 Barb on 09.28.21 at 5:03 pm

What an amazing coincidence that the Michaels’ release coincided with the DPA issued by the prosecutor’s office.

P O O F, and they’re home. Good.

To those who say not to let Huawei in, there are lots of companies (telus communications is only one) who have been using Huawei for years. Or is it the other way around?

#58 Building Credibility by Jen Psaki on 09.28.21 at 5:10 pm

White House press secretary Jen Psaki was pressed on the coinciding releases during a press briefing Monday and says ‘no link’ between release of Huawei exec and ‘Two Michaels’

“I think it’s important to note, and to be very clear about this, there is no link,” Psaki said. “We have an independent Justice Department. We can’t determine how the Chinese or others manage their business over there. It’s a little bit different.”

“These two leaders raised the cases of these individuals, but there was no negotiation about it. It was President Biden raising and pressing again for the release of these two Michaels, as is something that happens in every engagement we do with the Chinese — or had, up to this point in time.” – Garth

#59 Yawn on 09.28.21 at 5:25 pm

Remember when we had a spike in the 10 year treasury a few months ago to the same levels, and it was the cautiously looked at as the harbinger of rising rates? Ya, that fizzled as many predicted and bank rates slide even more after that. Real estate prices have only increased since then and hit new highs.

This will be the same yawn event. Prices will continue to rise – onwards and upwards. New Liberal initiatives will goose the market. The doors will open to 400k new immigrants looking for homes, along with hundreds and thousands of international students looking for housing. Rates will have a snail pace increase over the coming years, and when its time to renew, the paid down principal will offset any increase in mortgage rates in 5 years. Do the math. Yawn.

#60 Dogman01 on 09.28.21 at 5:29 pm

Worth a repeat:

“Yes, Beijing has sunk to the level of a terrorist organization.” – Garth Turner

#12 Elon Fanboy on 09.28.21 at 2:38 pm

The media likes to paint Russia as our bogeyman. In reality it’s China.

The world has the Chinese to thank for this nasty pathogen, and there looks to be a good chance it was bio engineered in a lab, and escaped….or was it deliberate?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wuhan-scientists-sought-to-infect-bats-with-coronavirus-18-months-before-first-case-documents-show

https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/

https://www.vox.com/22453571/lab-leak-covid-19-coronavirus-hypothesis-wuhan-virology-china

The CCP consider that all foreign nationals abroad are defacto agents of the state, whether they want to be or not. I have to wonder how many spies we have in our institutions and companies?
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/tasha-kheiriddin-liberals-must-demand-probe-into-any-china-election-meddling

#35 Oakville Rocks! on 09.28.21 at 3:44 pm

The only smart path for the future is for all western nations to completely divest from China and as much as possible keep China out of our critical supply chains.

————————————-
What we should do is send the bill for the Covid Pandemic to the CCP. Ban Huawei, Impose a carbon Tarriff on all good imported from China and Join the Australia\UK\USA alliance.
Better pick up 1/2 dozen Nuclear Powered Subs, as I bet we will need them in the next 25 years.

#61 The Atlantic is #1 on 09.28.21 at 5:37 pm

And people in the Atlantic do not want anyone to know this, because the threat of money flow is real. It flips these areas. No pun intended.

Not only is the Atlantic Bubble by far the best standard of living in all of Canada now, primarily driven by low prices which are set to sky rocket as Canadians descend on the last affordable piece of paradise that Canada has to offer.

Now this…

Travellers to P.E.I. to be tested for COVID-19 at its borders starting Thursday.

Imagine that. Actually doing something. This is my type of population. In fact I have never met anyone from the area that I didn’t like. Real nice people.

The Atlantic is a beautiful area where $300,000 gets you a house on a land parcel measured by the acre, not by the sqft.

I can’t wait to leave Vancouver and take the money from my over priced home with me.

I am going to need a money counter with the amount of left over cash.

I am going to miss not having neighbours in my face as well as exploding Covid cases, overburdened health care facilities, season long health harming wild fire smoke, ambulances wait times of 4 hours, constant advertisements promoting Vancouver as the best place on earth, etc.

I would like tips on where to go fishing. Hell, I can even afford to buy a fishing vessel once I make this move. 60ft Trawler. Right now I am house poor. I can’t even afford a Translink bus pass, and there is no other cash out area like this.

#62 TurnerNation on 09.28.21 at 5:38 pm

A glimpse into the near future. Exactly how will the Globalist topple the (former) First World Countries, cause mass chaos and need for military against its own people?
Why CV can do this too! All planned out for decades, we see the Daily/Weekly changes. This is the planned #reset. Buckle up.

1. Bankrupt smaller businesses in USA: from forbes.com

“Buried on page 168 of the House Democrats’ 2,465-page mega bill is a tenfold increase in fines for employers that “willfully,” “repeatedly,” or even seriously violate a section of labor law that deals with hazards, death, or serious physical harm to their employees.

The increased fines on employers could run as high as $70,000 for serious infractions, and $700,000 for willful or repeated violations—almost three-quarters of a million dollars for each fine. If enacted into law, vax enforcement could bankrupt non-compliant companies even more quickly than the $14,000 OSHA fine anticipated under Biden’s announced mandate.”

2. Have troops rule over us:

— Same as in NYC, The military are being brought into UK. People never would accept troops running their daily lives…would they? Yep CV did that. This is shaping up to be a next phase of global war- WW3.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/28/uk-puts-army-on-standby-to-deliver-fuel-as-supply-crisis-deepens
“UK fuel crisis: Prices rise to eight-year high as army on standby. Military tanker drivers are prepared for deployment as panic buying dries pumps and pushes prices up.

—- Ditto for police. And the NURSES. We gonna need troops right? If the police quit?

.Police officers set to resign in droves over vaccine mandate
Massachusetts State Police Association President and Sergeant Mike Cherven says that officers have not been told if ‘reasonable alternatives’ will be granted, such as weekly testing or masking. #FoxNews https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5f3QtY1SdaE

#63 Faron on 09.28.21 at 5:48 pm

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 5:01 pm
@#28 Faron

You keep focusing on Alberta when the shortage of Hospital Beds is a NATIONAL problem.
Kenny is an idiot and Alberta is paying the price.
No argument there.

Keep up Crowdie. I’m talking about Alta because TN’s original point in his latest jibberiah post was to suggest COVID wasn’t the dominant problem causing current clogging. Capice? It is and saying it isn’t is not helpful.

The exodus of Doctors to the south will continue as the wait times here increase along with immigration numbers….

Mmmmmm, don’t think so regarding Dr. Loss. Friends working in healthcare in the US are sick of the venture capital drive to strip as much are out of the system as they can get away with. Healthcare in the US is a nightmare for practitioners. Sure, they can make bank, but the lifestyle is hell.

Fully agreed with massive need for increased capacity.

But you just keep telling yourself Kanada’s health care is “#1” while we continue to drop in international rankings

No I don’t, or can’t recall writing that. Recently I demonstrated how captain SillySlob prematurely spiked his football claiming Canada’s ship was nigh sunk. Eating children and all. I dragged out peer reviewed stats to compare Canada and CZ and Canada wins by most (but not all) measures by a sizeable margin.

None of this means I’m blindly stoked about Canadian healthcare. I don’t have a GP and wait times are nuts (weeks) at “walk ins”. But I am stoked relative to what I experienced in the US. I would love to see more funding here and if it came from “sin” taxes, all the better. The system is in need of a revamp but I fear privatization motives will let things wither more before corporate HMOs are brought in to feed off the carcass.

And to my original point, more funding and less tax are at odds, full stop.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 5:56 pm

The Chinese were worried Trump was going to nuke Beijing????

https://www.reuters.com/world/top-us-general-milley-staunchly-defends-calls-with-china-2021-09-28/

Unbelievable.

#65 Debtslavecreator on 09.28.21 at 6:00 pm

CMHC’s public announcement today is so bullish I fully expect prices to rise at least 10% into mid 22
Yes RE on a 5 year outlook looks doomed but near term watch out as we could go parabolic into 22-23 before the really bad stuff starts
They can 1) extend amortization to 40,2) reduce minimum down to 0,3) and if needed offer interest only insured mortgages and multigenerational loans. When we see these type of policy moves you can bet you are within 6 months of the peak. Still some gas left in the tank.

#66 Faron on 09.28.21 at 6:02 pm

#35 Oakville Rocks! on 09.28.21 at 3:44 pm

keep China out of our critical supply chains

You think inflation is bad now? Yikes!

#52 Sail Away on 09.28.21 at 4:48 pm

Welcome back from leaky tipi town! Just in time to check in on your miner stocks and BTFD?

#67 Trudeau keeps Freeland on on 09.28.21 at 6:02 pm

Trudeau keeps Freeland on to appease Garth.

#68 Bonobo on 09.28.21 at 6:02 pm

Wait until we see the return of $150 per barrel of oil! Trudeau and Biden will be crawling back to Saudi Arabia begging them to turn all the taps on.

I can’t wait to see how much they fail.

Trump’s not looking too bad now. LOL.

#69 Elizabeth on 09.28.21 at 6:10 pm

Prediction:

Jerome Powell a dangerous man setting us up for another 2008.

Financial markets are entering a bear market to achieve a double dip recession.

2023 is the year (predicted in 2018) for the real, unavoidable meltdown of the Canadian housing market.

Blame it on the forces at play.

The cycles don’t lie.

#70 G on 09.28.21 at 6:21 pm

Glade the Michaels are back. CCP…!

More news that might lead to added ups and downs in markets in coming weeks, maybe.

Treasury Secretary Yellen warns Congress has 3 weeks before US defaults on its debts
https://www.rt.com/usa/536070-yellen-pelosi-debt-ceiling/

an option about CCP.
China is Preparing its Citizens for War – You Should Not Ignore This! 14min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0CjXkb99Z4

#71 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.28.21 at 6:25 pm

DRIP-DRIP-DRIP.
The drip-drip-drip of the “cash is trash,” narrative is shortly going to be De-bunked. I always tell the tooth, the whole tooth and nothing but the tooth. A lot of people should seriously consider changing their names in order to avoid being branded stupid. A big sea change is coming, I hope you have packed your life jacket with (cash). Once again, beware “The Ides Of November, At Your Peril.” I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#72 willworkforpickles on 09.28.21 at 6:27 pm

#8 S. Bby
“As long as QE is in place which will be forever there will not be higher rates.”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Many here actually believe this…so 3 things – there will be no debt jubilee (without nuclear war to follow) and debt doesn’t just go away or get paid down. Not with the consecutive deficits being added to it … it keeps growing and the old debt is still there.
US debt is the concern. Foreign holders of it won’t just sit still being burned for it.
As the Debt to GDP ratio climbs higher each year the QE gambit grows ever more precarious with the baggage and burden that comes with it.
Things don’t remain the same under QE to infinity as many here erroneously presume. They get out of control and are beyond the point of any fix without a great lot of pain.
I agree QE is here to stay …forget Fed-speak – smoke and mirrors stratagem notwithstanding.
Confidence among foreign holders of US debt (1 driver among others of future rate hikes) is waning and will eventually be addressed with higher rates as the debt burden grows and grows.
Government will not intervene to avoid recession but will keep QE alive in whatever form they choose to call it down the road.
Canada need take notice as its economic survival is joined with the US.

#73 45north on 09.28.21 at 6:31 pm

James In 2020, the United States Department of Justice charged Huawei with racketeering and conspiring to steal trade secrets from six U.S. firms.
Will never own a piece of equipment made by them and I hope that our dumb ass leader does the right thing by not allowing Huawei technology in this country.

the Federal Government could and should refuse to buy from Huawei. I worked for Agriculture Canada. The Federal Government buys millions of dollars of telecommunications equipment. Just don’t buy from Huawei.

#74 Hass Say Yooh on 09.28.21 at 6:35 pm

Here’s my experience with China: In 2007 after working in South Korea for a number of years, a Korean friend who operated an English Language School invited me to take a break and teach in China for awhile. Upon my arrival in Quingdae the immigration official said something to me which I did not understand, asked him to repeat which he did and still did not understand. Mentioning it to my friend, she said, “ he would have said you must report to the nearest police station within five days”. We both forgot. A month later we asked to go to the police station. There , their were four police officers, an interpreter, myself, the school interpreter and the school interpreter. I was interrogated for three hours as to why I missed my appointment. My father had been law enforcement in Canada, and my brother was a lawyer in Canada. It suddenly occurred to me, I must apologize. I did so while mentioning I thought they the police in China, have a difficult job as my father had been law enforcement in Canada. They looked at each other, smiled and began talking to me in perfect English. They warned me should I go back to China in the future not to do this again. I consider myself very lucky as Xi, zing-ping was not the Chairman of China then. However, it was a frightening experience but nothing like the Michael’s. l have not travelled back there since and do not intend doing so.

#75 Shawn Allen on 09.28.21 at 6:40 pm

Canadian Homes as investment versus S&P 500

#43 Dolce Vita on 09.28.21 at 4:22 pm

provided the link to St. Louis Fed and calculated 2.78% compounded real estate gains in Canada sine 1970 versus 10.9% for S&P 500.

That is shocking…

Notice though that the Fed real estate index is in real dollars after deducting inflation. It was not clear of the S&P 500 10.9% was real dollars. Dolce, can you check that?

It was indeed interesting that during the 1990’s real estate did not respond much to far lower interest rates. I noticed that at the time but did not capitalize by buying real estate. I suppose I was really not in much of a position to do so – other than my house and two rental properties (bought 1989 and 1990) that I ended up selling in 2002 just before prices really started to explode. I bought those based on rental income not expecting much price appreciation. That’s okay, other investments did well.

I suspect real estate since 2000 has done decently compared to S&P 500.

I was in Banff on the weekend. It occurred to me that the really prime properties there have perhaps cost their owners little or nothing if they bought decades ago. Price appreciation may have covered all or most of their costs over the years. That’s fairly bizarre. Why should a vacation property end up costing nothing?

It’s hard to imagine that the really prime recreational properties will ever drop in price.

#76 Shawn Allen on 09.28.21 at 6:53 pm

#61 The Atlantic is #1 on 09.28.21 at 5:37 pm

As a native Nov Scotian who has now lived more than half my life in Alberta, the Atlantic economies are a mystery to me.

P.E.I. obviously imports a tremendous amount. All of its cars and vehicles. All of its gasoline. Much of food in its grocery stores. The vast majority of its clothing. Most of its entertainment. Probably most of its building materials. Much of its banking and insurance needs.

To pay for ALL that what does it export? Are potatoes covering the bill or is it mostly equalization and federal transfers?

Similar thoughts apply to Nova Scotia.

New Brunswick exports a great deal of gasoline and timber and so the same thoughts do not apply as much.

Newfoundland is pretty much broke and relying on federal dollars (just got a big $5 billion breal on its Musgrat falls debacle).

There is a reason land is cheaper in the Atlantic Provinces. New homes are probably just as costly to construct other than the land. Existing homes are cheap because they are in surplus in many areas.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 6:57 pm

@#63 Faron
“And to my original point, more funding and less tax are at odds, full stop.”

+++

I dont think most Canadians are opposed to paying taxes…..when the money is spent wisely.

The hundreds of billions of tax dollars “urinated against the wall” that we are currently witnessing….. and the further billions of tax dollars expenditures promised by our fearless “Leader” that haven’t been collected yet…..

Nope.

And if we fall into a multi year downturn…… oh my.
Rainbow sidewalks and Smashed statues ….will be the last thing on people’s minds.

#78 Jen on 09.28.21 at 7:01 pm

Resilient indeed! https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/michael-kovrig-surfaces-in-toronto-for-a-covid-shot-haircut-and-finds-hes-a-celebrity

#79 Rvanzo on 09.28.21 at 7:01 pm

There will be no rate rise. That would kill Trudeau and the liberals and the Central Banks never defy the liberals as they have all the media and large corporations backing them. Housing prices may stagnate or even fall, but I would be surprised if Bank of Canada raised interest by so much as 1% in the next 4 years whatever the inflation may be.

#80 Tragically-OHIP on 09.28.21 at 7:03 pm

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz

Oh stop being outraged CEF.

Check video under my post 33 how it is going down in the UK right now.

NHS is under attack by US insurance-like system. They infiltrated NHS with their own people, who put NHS in debt by lending them 11B on friendly terms of course – paying it back will cost 88B.

Loan Baby Shark…ta na ta na.
Loan Baby Shark…ta na ta na na na

Step one: BREAK IT!
In this case: make NHS insolvent and unable to provide services by putting it in debt it can’t repay.

Step two: FIX IT!
In this case: Bring into UK a US-like insurance based system duplicate.

LOVELY!

Now you’ve seen how it is done. We’re next, you can be sure. Step one….well, you know…break it. They’re tired of being told how Canada can do it but US can’t. So, crush the comparison by making it look bad, bring in your own system to replace it.

We need to take the UK events as warning, or get ready to have to sell your $2M leaning semi to pay for your surgery.

Heart Attack? How about bankruptcy as a bonus to go with it?

#81 Cici on 09.28.21 at 7:06 pm

Good to see one of the two Michaels out and about and supporting local business.

BUT, I do hope he’s had both his COVID vaccinations? Please stay safe, a few too many cases of young, healthy men falling victim to the illness as of late in my province. It hurts even more when you learn that they’ve left young children behind.

#82 Cto on 09.28.21 at 7:21 pm

Hmm…Rates rising eh Garth?
Heard this story before…oh they’ll rise…like .25% a year…until they reach 1%.
I’ve heard this so many times, like little teasers to keep you thinking , maybe? maybe? Maybe we’ll finally have price discovery and clearer heads prevail, but nope. Can’t by it this time. This was all intentional…

#83 Alpha Dog on 09.28.21 at 7:22 pm

It seems that Norway, Sweden and Denmark have just announced an end to all Covid restrictions. No more mask, no more social distancing and certainly no Covid passports. It over for them. Of course our corrupt corporate media has refused to report this. It doesn’t fit the propaganda narrative !!

#84 Sail Away on 09.28.21 at 7:23 pm

#52 Sail Away on 09.28.21 at 4:48 pm

Welcome back from leaky tipi town! Just in time to check in on your miner stocks and BTFD?

——–

Thanks! We took around 70 grouse, 40 ducks, 50 geese, and 2 deer so returned a few days early for processing. The deer were the catalyst for return.

Ah, the miners. I see my 4 recent tranches average -9% as of today. Will need to review the sector drop and it’s likely time to add more.

#85 TurnerNation on 09.28.21 at 7:31 pm

USA: once again discouraging the workers, and getting people used to Military Rule. CV is doing all this. But almost back to normal – soon – right guys??

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/09/13/national-guard-stepping-fill-school-bus-shortage.html
“BOSTON — Massachusetts’ governor on Monday activated the state’s National Guard to help with busing students to school as districts across the country struggle to hire enough drivers.”


—- As I figured out mid-2020 this New System will be run by the global Corps. and Organizations.
You think you are “Fully”? Well you ain’t. Back to normal…any day now right?

https://www.ualberta.ca/covid-19/vaccinations-testing/vaccination-directive.html
“Individuals are required to maintain ongoing Fully Vaccinated status in the event that Health Canada updates its requirements for full vaccine protection, in which case the University will update and communicate timing requirements for maintaining Fully Vaccinated status accordingly.”

…which leads to this. What is the end goal? Eliminate most jobs, children will be taught by A.I. and online?

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-28/lausd-enrollment-drops-by-30000-students-amid-covid-19
L.A. Unified enrollment drops by more than 27,000 students, steepest decline in years
The district estimates that between 70% and 80% of the school staff are on target to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by the district’s deadline of Oct. 15, indicating that thousands of employees face termination, which would exacerbate another problem: more than 2,000 unfilled jobs.

#86 Tripp on 09.28.21 at 7:46 pm

#51 Dolce Vita on 09.28.21 at 4:47 pm

Dolce, what is the timeline for the graphs you linked? Beginning of the pandemic, beginning of the vaccinations, last month, etc?

#87 Salutations Sally on 09.28.21 at 7:50 pm

So nice to see 1 of the 2 Michaels out and about and looking happy; Welcome Home and take it easy.

Today’s pup Misha looks like a bundle of fun.

#88 IHCTD9 on 09.28.21 at 7:55 pm

Eventually, China is going to tire of selling to the poor. No sales manager ever wants to sell on price. You want to sell on reputation. You want to earn a premium for your product, and the only way you get that, is if folks really want your product.

It takes decades and decades for a country to become associated with quality, or a brand with prestige. Nor is it cheap, or easy. Consistent decades long quality products at competitive prices is where it all starts, ask Germany, Japan, and South Korea how to get there. China up till now, seems intent on building a global reputation for producing cheap garbage at the lowest price. Either that, or they are building product for foreign companies with a brand that actually sells.

Global wealth is increasing, and those benefiting from same are not lining up to buy Chinese brands or products – those are for folks who can’t afford a Yamaha, Silverado, or Audi. Global culture is fast heading West, no one wants a fake Rolex. That includes Chinese folks themselves – they love high end stuff, and none of it comes from China…

China will eventually hit a ceiling where the only avenue for revenue growth is increased prices, and they won’t have a leg to stand on at that point.

#89 Steve French on 09.28.21 at 7:58 pm

#27 Facts, #36 East Berlin:

You are an idiot (and I assume you are the same ten cent troll).

International Crisis Group is a highly reputable research organisation that aims to help address and ameliorate conflict situations around the world.

All their reports are publicly available.

Have you ever read one? They are excellent and highly informative.

https://www.crisisgroup.org

Former Foreign Minister of Australia Gareth Evans led the Crisis Group for many years.

“The International Crisis Group is an independent organisation working to prevent wars and shape policies that will build a more peaceful world.”

Have a look at their Board of Directors:
https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/board

These people have more talent and achievements in the tip of their little pinky, than you will ever encounter in your entire life.

So slither back into the slimy hole you came from.

#90 fishman on 09.28.21 at 8:00 pm

Locals up in Shaughnessy will be pining for Mengs return. No more dudes in big blacked out SUV’s patrolling 24/7. Open season: just a short bike ride up the hill from the war zone for junkies & crackheads.

#91 Steve French on 09.28.21 at 8:03 pm

https://www.crisisgroup.org/statement-chinas-release-michael-kovrig-and-michael-spavor

“Statement on China’s Release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor”

Crisis Group welcomes the release of our colleague Michael Kovrig after more than 1,000 days detained in Beijing.

Welcome home, dear Michael.

Of all the words Crisis Group has written it’s hard to imagine any meaning more to us than these: Michael Kovrig is free.

After more than 1,000 days in detention in Beijing, our colleague Michael was released, together with another Canadian Michael Spavor, on 24 September. Both Michaels are on their way back to their loved ones in Canada. We’re relieved the government of China has righted this wrong.

Crisis Group is hugely grateful to many people who have worked tirelessly in support of Michael. We thank the Canadian government for securing his release and the resolute efforts of many Canadian officials throughout his detention. Thank you to the many others who have contributed publicly and behind-the-scenes. We would like to extend our deep appreciation and admiration for Vina Nadjibulla, Michael’s wife, and Michael’s other family members for their brave and unstinting pursuit of his freedom.

Over more than two and a half years in jail, Michael has confronted tragedy with fortitude and humanity. Despite suffering injustice and hardship, he has stayed strong and positive. He maintained throughout his confinement his grace and humour, as well as a vigorous exercise routine and voracious appetite for reading and discovery.

Michael, we’re so proud of you. We’re so proud to have you as part of the Crisis Group family. You’re an inspiration to all of us. Welcome home.

#92 DON on 09.28.21 at 8:04 pm

Inflation’s running hot in Canada (4%) and the US (5%).

**********
Everytime I see the official numbers I cringe like Gollum counting my precious loonies.

Time to measure reality on mainstreet.
This is when tipping points come into play.

#93 facts on 09.28.21 at 8:05 pm

Great to see that so many here are so concerned about law – when it comes to a foreigner, and a semi-spy is a celebrity. Covid passports are making people excited, as if their holders were suddenly members of a private club for free from the government. Their lunch in the same restaurant turned into a visit to the upper crust at the Granit.

At the same time these Canadians ridicule other Canadians who chose not to be club members, which cost them even their jobs, where they were celebrated heroes just a short while ago.

These concerned Canadiens suddenly couldn’t care less about law.

Exercising these laws are more interesting though, than a covid passport-only dinner.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/fJoPhHsrkLpn/

#94 IHCTD9 on 09.28.21 at 8:14 pm

Amazing intersection with Donnie the Barber and Kovrig. Don is becoming a celebrity Barber! If I ever felt the need for a trim while out in the east end of the GTA, I’d definitely drop in. Alas, Donnie and I have the same hairdo… I guess it’ll have to be a beard trim.

RL’s original blog featuring Don:

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2021/07/31/true-grit/

The Kingston Barber Shop:

https://www.kingstonbarbershop.ca/

#95 Don Guillermo on 09.28.21 at 8:17 pm

#76 Shawn Allen on 09.28.21 at 6:53 pm
#61 The Atlantic is #1 on 09.28.21 at 5:37 pm

As a native Nov Scotian who has now lived more than half my life in Alberta, the Atlantic economies are a mystery to me.

P.E.I. obviously imports a tremendous amount. All of its cars and vehicles. All of its gasoline. Much of food in its grocery stores. The vast majority of its clothing. Most of its entertainment. Probably most of its building materials. Much of its banking and insurance needs.

To pay for ALL that what does it export? Are potatoes covering the bill or is it mostly equalization and federal transfers?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Simple equalization map for 202/2021

https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1206932227528904707/photo/1

#96 Shawn Allen on 09.28.21 at 8:18 pm

P.E.I. does not trust the vaccine?

Going to test everyone entering… Will it at least be rapid tests?

Can’t wait to vote against equalization. The Alberta vote will be symbolic only but still. Quebec’s investment arm just said it will divest oil and and gas. How long before even I as the formerly staunchest Canadian-first guy throws in the towel and becomes an Alberta separatist? I never thought of myself as an Albertan until Nova Scotia (my home province) erected a border against me. Okay so I know where I stand.

#97 Philco on 09.28.21 at 8:20 pm

#26 James on 09.28.21 at 3:19 pm
I have a few words regarding China.
Huawei purloins intellectual property and that’s how they got where they are today.
Nortel
Cisco Systems
T-Mobile US
PanOptis
ZTE
In 2020, the United States Department of Justice charged Huawei with racketeering and conspiring to steal trade secrets from six U.S. firms.
Will never own a piece of equipment made by them and I hope that our dumb ass leader does the right thing by not allowing Huawei technology in this country.
—————————————————–
I’m with you James.
I worked on Nortel cell networks then the blew up (very sad) and then deployed the first HUAWEI 3G or HSPA cell systems then 4G LTE then finally built the test bed for 5G down town YVR.
Ya worked on them but would never own their products. Avoid all you can incl. their hand sets.
CCP backed and owned HUAWEI are in the business of espionage. Our security commissioner was on the news years ago warning Canadians that China was stealing our innovation’s and technology here and would reduce the quality of living for us the various reasons.
Typical of most here, they don’t care or are clueless to what is going on and you sure as hell should.
Huawei 5G should be BAN period, but our Sock Puppet gives CCP the 2 thumbs up.
I retired from the telecom dog eat dog racket and now the big Telco is my largest renter :-)

#98 Nonplused on 09.28.21 at 8:23 pm

Hmmmm….

https://mishtalk.com/economics/real-interest-rates-hit-new-record-low-as-home-prices-hit-new-record-high

#99 Quintilian on 09.28.21 at 8:24 pm

The possibility of higher mortgage rates is an excellent opportunity for the RE pumpers sales campaign, to pull forward any demand left.

But the crash is baked in.

I think the fastest route to the cliff is not higher rates, but higher prices.

Low rates will continue to fuel the madness to a point of no return.

No orderly slow down, all corrective market mechanism have been short circuited, pressure release valves tampered and removed.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#100 IHCTD9 on 09.28.21 at 8:25 pm

From the land of K-Pop… comes greatness!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW2TOKj6kMc

#101 DON on 09.28.21 at 8:30 pm

#65 Debtslavecreator on 09.28.21 at 6:00 pm
CMHC’s public announcement today is so bullish I fully expect prices to rise at least 10% into mid 22
Yes RE on a 5 year outlook looks doomed but near term watch out as we could go parabolic into 22-23 before the really bad stuff starts
They can 1) extend amortization to 40,2) reduce minimum down to 0,3) and if needed offer interest only insured mortgages and multigenerational loans. When we see these type of policy moves you can bet you are within 6 months of the peak. Still some gas left in the tank.

******
Could also run out of folks that can actually afford current prices at the low rates
even if longer ammorts or lower down payments. Real estate grid lock at the moment. Will there be continued demand in the rural areas that have far exceeded local incomes.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 8:33 pm

@#80 Tragic broken Hip

“NHS is under attack by US insurance-like system. They infiltrated NHS with their own people, who put NHS in debt by lending them 11B on friendly terms of course – paying it back will cost 88B”
++++

Ah yes. Britains vaunted National Health Service.

A friend of mine went back to Scotland for a visit after 30 years living in Canada.
He went to his old neighborhood and had a few pints with some old friends.
He was stung by a wasp and began having an allergic reation.
Went to the hospital.
Admin ask for his name. She entered it into the computor and asked, “Are you stil living at 123 XYZ st.?”

He was gobsmacked.
They had his name and his parents old address from 30 years ago entered into their new data base.

Someone had entered all that useless data from 30 years ago into a modern data base.

And they wonder why they’re broke.

#103 Spy vs. Spy on 09.28.21 at 8:35 pm

#97 Philco

Funny, you guys all claim that Huawei copied all the hardware made by top “western” manufacturers, and you don’t think they copied all the spying, surveillance and backdoors from them too?

You think Huawei invented it?

You know what they say about glass houses…

“As evidenced by the Snowden leaks, the United States has been covertly accessing telecom networks worldwide, spying on other countries for quite some time,” Huawei said in a six-paragraph statement sent to news organizations. “The report by the Washington Post this week about how the CIA used an encryption company to spy on other countries for decades is yet additional proof.” (That Post report detailed how the CIA bought a company called Crypto AG and used it to spy on communications for decades.)”

I love this western vilification of China, as if others stand on higher moral ground.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/02/huawei-fires-back-points-to-us-history-of-spying-on-phone-networks/

#104 Nonplused on 09.28.21 at 8:37 pm

#95 Don Guillermo on 09.28.21 at 8:17 pm

Simple equalization map for 202/2021

https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1206932227528904707/photo/1

————————————

Trophy wives are expensive. We should have gone for the divorce when she first proposed it.

#105 Philco on 09.28.21 at 8:46 pm

DELETED

#106 Blood on 09.28.21 at 8:53 pm

Was driving to the office this morning…heard an ad on the radio about how there is a shortage of blood and how blood donations are needed.

Considering the times we live in, a bunch of questions rushed to my head.

– Does one need a Passport to donate blood?
– Do they test for Covid?
– Do they accept blood from the unvaccinated?

There were more questions obviously, but let’s start with these logical three first.

#107 Wait There on 09.28.21 at 8:58 pm

DELETED

#108 the Jaguar on 09.28.21 at 8:59 pm

@#90 fishman on 09.28.21 at 8:00 pm
Locals up in Shaughnessy will be pining for Mengs return. No more dudes in big blacked out SUV’s patrolling 24/7. Open season: just a short bike ride up the hill from the war zone for junkies & crackheads.+++

I always liked what she wore to the various court hearings, etc., careful to display a little leg with the police ankle bracelet showing. Elegant, tasteful clothing choices. She represented her upbringing and privilege.

Just so glad it is finally over and the two Michaels are back in Canada. Anybody thinking of doing business overseas with personal appearances needs to take a page out of this unfortunate playbook.

Fishman, you need to take the bullet-proof, armour plated Buick Grand National out of moth balls and do a few laps around her house. Maybe crank up a little Crystal Blue Persuasion for the crackheads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn5Pbug5nRw

#109 Covid isn't a Blood Borne Disease on 09.28.21 at 9:02 pm

No Covid worries giving or receiving Blood.

#110 Don Guillermo on 09.28.21 at 9:05 pm

DELETED

#111 waltersafety on 09.28.21 at 9:15 pm

#61 Atlantic #1
You know little about Atlantic Canada and less about PEI.
PEI is a Docktatership with a gelding premier.
They have destroyed Confederation with their border and having to submit to nasal rape to enter the province.
They have decimated their substandard health care with the CV priority. Regional hospitals close on weekends, no specialists on PEI- go to Halifax. It will only get worse.
They announced provincial annual interest payments of $120,000,000 this year . 145000 people do the math.
They with the help of the feds subsidize a non working culture.
The province has returned to the 1940’s . Opportunity now means working for the government, the Irving’s, or the McCains or leaving .

#112 Shawn Allen on 09.28.21 at 9:58 pm

Scotland Government Efficiancy?

Crowdedelevatorfartz at 102 said:

“Someone had entered all that useless data from 30 years ago into a modern data base.”

******************************
Hmm I thought you might be old enough to know that computer databases have been around for at least 40 years and probably longer.

What you described was an example of government efficiency. Why erase your friend’s record when it probably costs basically nothing to maintain it in the database?

#113 Drunken Stupor on 09.28.21 at 10:23 pm

200 bps = 2%
What am i missing?

#114 Faron on 09.28.21 at 10:31 pm

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 6:57 pm
@#63 Faron
“And to my original point, more funding and less tax are at odds, full stop.”

+++

I dont think most Canadians are opposed to paying taxes…..when the money is spent wisely.

The hundreds of billions of tax dollars “urinated against the wall” that we are currently witnessing…..

Oh boy, now this is a CERB conversation? Focus dammit!

Regardless, when thinking about CERB, don’t fail to mention the CEWS. Second, where did those $$ go? You’ve been busy, right? The relatively functional economy we have right now is a DIRECT RESULT of the wall pissing. Hell of a lot better than focussing only on CB bond buying! A smouldering crater can’t buy things.

#115 Udar on 09.28.21 at 10:37 pm

Welcome home Michaels! Thank you Joe!

#116 mike from mtl on 09.28.21 at 10:45 pm

#103 Spy vs. Spy on 09.28.21 at 8:35 pm

Funny, you guys all claim that Huawei copied all the hardware made by top “western” manufacturers, and you don’t think they copied all the spying, surveillance and backdoors from them too?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yes and yes. Having worked once with a site in Mexico using Huawei broadband equipment, it was a direct copy of Cisco IOS at the time right down to the bugs. Not a stretch to imagine them stealing other IP from foreign sources since the CCP demands such when ‘partnering’.

And by the same token not for one second do I believe the NSA does not has backdoors to “western” gear, aka TAO.

Point is which side and who is worse?

#117 the Jaguar on 09.28.21 at 11:04 pm

Re: #109 waltersafety on 09.28.21 at 9:15 pm

Holy crap! No words minced! Seal the airtight compartments! Gale about to blow in.

#118 Philco on 09.28.21 at 11:47 pm

#26 James on 09.28.21 at 3:19 pm
—————————
Huawei is being fazed out and the 2 big cell companies are deploying Samsung and Ericson.
I’m personally pretty happy about that. The CCP has enough power.

#119 Philco on 09.28.21 at 11:59 pm

#103 Spy vs. Spy on 09.28.21 at 8:35 pm
#97 Philco
Funny, you guys all claim that Huawei copied all the hardware made by top “western” manufacturers, and you don’t think they copied all the spying, surveillance and backdoors from them too?
————————————
I never said “they copied” our hardware. Were did ya read that?
I said that get access our technologies and use info. Same way Japanese tor stuff apart copied and produced a better product.
NSA don’t even go there. Their brutal.

Top cell tech Buddy just said Huawei is clean as far back doors in the networks but they are guilty of stealing intellectual property big time.
They had to release their source code to prove that stuff was clean.

#120 Diamond Dog on 09.29.21 at 12:18 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOLrX_BrQiA

Well… it’s not like we weren’t told. Jeremy Grantham is right. We have 3 & 1/2 asset classes in a bubble: housing, stocks, bonds and to some degree, commodities. We’ve never had them all in a bubble at once like this before with rates so near zero and with the debt levels across the board to boot…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c13O6Amn1lQ

Interestingly, the debt ceiling, always raised in the past, has some on edge as spending defaults would hammer the world’s international currency of choice. Republicans have never been crazy enough to create a default scenario but then again, they let Trump run for and supported his presidency and still are so there’s that. Republicans are quite good at crazy these days, so…

#121 ulsterman on 09.29.21 at 12:40 am

8 S.Bby on 09.28.21 at 2:28 pm
I used to think your way but I’ve taken the red pill and can see the new reality now. The reality is in no way can interest rates rise substantially without crushing the economy. This is the post 2008 economic world now and the game has changed. CBs may diddle with rates a bit but they cannot stop QE without crashing the entire system and they know it. As long as QE is in place which will be forever there will not be higher rates. Extend and pretend is the new normal.

Hopium addict. – Garth

I never beleived this new normal BS but your stat about the 1/4 of the USD$ not existing 18 months ago has turned everything i ever thought or beleived on its head. Throw in an economy-crushing, black-swan event pandemic leading to…booming equities and insanity housing, and that’s done it for me. Up is down, left is right.

If all the buyers at the margin of the housing market were drawn in by buying homes at max leverage at minimum rates, how can a semi-normalization of rates simply NOT destroy the market if prices are set by those forced to sell?

If CB’s can stop rates rising in the face of the bond market then everything is weird. If they can’t then the market must surely crash with rising rates.

#122 DON on 09.29.21 at 1:44 am

With China willing to pay any price for coal are they creating an energy crisis or suffering from young. In other news the US has asked China to stop buying Iranian oil. Good news though China has recently committed to not building coal energy plants in other countries just their own.

The game of risk is getting more interesting. As we hear about North Korea apparently launching a hypersonic missile into the Sea of Japan. Aussie nuc sub deal and now Taiwan wants longer range missiles.

Big problems in the China South Sea region.

War is a great reset and economic war is stealth. Who can cause the most turmoil in the other combatant’s country.

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 5:13 am

#124 facts on 09.27.21 at 9:45 pm
In Austria’s second largest city the Communist party won the local election.
———————————
The city is called Graz.
Beautiful University Town, which probably explains it.
Interestingly, Arnie the Republican was born and raised there.

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 5:31 am

Another first for Canada.
———————
Gay Travel Index 2021: Canada is the most LGBTQ*-friendly travel destination

The editorial offices of männer* and Spartacus have compiled the annual Gay Travel Index and one person can be really happy: Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada.

The popular head of government is largely responsible for the queer-friendly image of his country. Not only has he been celebrating in public at the country’s Prides for years, but he has also gradually made Canada more diverse and liberal. While the country shared first place with Sweden and Malta in 2020, Canada is the sole leader of the Gay Travel Index in 2021.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 5:39 am

112 Faron on 09.28.21 at 10:31 pm
#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 6:57 pm
@#63 Faron
“And to my original point, more funding and less tax are at odds, full stop.”

+++

I dont think most Canadians are opposed to paying taxes…..when the money is spent wisely.

The hundreds of billions of tax dollars “urinated against the wall” that we are currently witnessing…..

Oh boy, now this is a CERB conversation? Focus dammit!
—————————

He’s hard to pin down, is he not?

#126 willworkforpickles on 09.29.21 at 6:17 am

The stress the slavery…
As house lust has turned many into over-stressed workaday work-away debt slaves, few if any have ever contemplated a form of forced involuntary slavery that could befall segments of humanity stripped of all wealth and possessions.
But they should as they slave away now and labour in vain whilst the future advances upon us all unaware. The curse of lifetime debt already has many in chains with a bad ending.
We pause this broadcast momentarily – but stay tuned for the sports and weather.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.29.21 at 8:12 am

@#114 faron
“The relatively functional economy we have right now is a DIRECT RESULT of the wall pissing. ”

++++
“Relatively Functional”?

Is that how we’re describing an economy bolstered by ruinous spending by govt?

HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars in less than two years tossed to the wind in an unaudited Liberal frenzy of spending.

We WILL pay the price for years….in increased taxes and govt cutbacks.

If a grotesque spending deficit, no available skilled workers and an elected minority govt after elected minority govt is your idea of a “relatively functional economy” ….
I shudder to think what your idea of an incompetent govt is.

Come to think of it.
Greta Thunberg described the bureaucrats of the world very succinctly yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UryIL4kUcx8

All the Farons of the world are very good at debate…..
Actual results driven work?
Not so much.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.29.21 at 8:31 am

@#117 The jaguar
“Holy crap! No words minced!”

++++

everything Waltersafety said about PEI is correct.

An insular, welfare economy, run by big business and politicians that excel at protecting their little feifdom….

Hell, that sounds like our current Canadian federal govt.
:)

#129 OK-Nectarine-5682 on 09.29.21 at 8:32 am

#8 S.Bby on 09.28.21 at 2:28 pm

Forever there will not be higher rates – yes this is true,,, but only on Savings Accounts and GIC’s….

#130 the Jaguar on 09.29.21 at 8:44 am

Meanwhile, back at the Ranch…… Snippets…..

“It has all played out very nicely for us, but I don’t think we can honestly say that we predicted that gas and oil would have turned the corner so fast,” said Anderson, president and CEO of ARC Resources Ltd.

The bull market is being fuelled by low gas storage levels globally, an insatiable export market and a weak supply response that could inflate other energy commodity prices including thermal coal and crude oil.

A sharp rise in natural gas prices will also have implications beyond the energy sector. Gas molecules play an important but often overlooked role in wide range of industries, including electricity generation, plastic manufacturing and even in supermarkets, where “dry ice,” which is solid CO2, is used to store frozen food for transport.

Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, believes that high natural gas prices will also lead some utilities around the world to switch to oil as a fuel source this year, creating an additional 500,000 barrels per day of oil demand and leading to crude oil prices above US$80 per barrel in the near term.

Some energy observers believe that ambitious climate policies are not in tune with the reality of the world’s current energy needs.

(no sh_t, Sherlock…)

Oh well, just fire up those wind turbines, solar panels, and unicorn farts. Carry on….

#131 Dharma Bum on 09.29.21 at 8:49 am

Canadians are financially ignorant. The majority of them.
They only understand (they don’t, really, but feel like they do) houses as a long term asset that ensures their security. They dream of their “retirement”, some magical day in their distant future, when they sell their home and live out their idyllic lives funded by the nest egg provided by the appreciated value of their homes. It’s the Canadian Dream. And, as long as Canadians are asleep, which will be for a long, long, long time, the dream of a future life in retirement heaven paid for by selling their precious valuable homes will continue. So will the FOMO of the ignorant, feeding the fires of this never ending myth, and scrimping and saving for the coveted down payment to buy their first home in order to embark on the lifelong journey of cashing in on future home equity so they can retire happily ever after. And so it goes. On and on. Folks, if you live in the GTA and you own a house currently valued at $2 million, trust me, it’ll be worth $3 million in 5 years from now. The myth continues to perpetuate, and with it, so do home prices. It’s the only thing Canadians believe in. it is their universal religion. Based on fantasy, but clung to for security and dear life. Stupidity reigns. House prices go up. Canadians keep buying. Mercy me.

#132 Prince Polo on 09.29.21 at 8:58 am

Is this the same CMHC, who in 2015, warned of the boisterous & scorching-hot housing markets of Winnipeg/Regina?

CMHC says Canada’s housing market is modestly overvalued, and says the high-risk cities are not the overheated markets of Vancouver and Toronto, but the more unlikely candidates of Regina and Winnipeg.

In Regina, the inventory of completed and unsold units, particularly condos, is at a record high, the housing agency said. Builders have scaled back in 2015, but there is still more supply of new homes than demand.

The city also has seen strong housing price growth in recent years, combined with only modest gains in personal income.

In Winnipeg the risk is similar. There is high inventory of both single-detached homes and multi-unit homes and the multi-unit builders have not reduced the number of housing starts in response to market conditions, CMHC said.

Winnipeg has also seen housing prices rise more quickly than gains in personal income. The result is a high number of unsold units.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/regina-winnipeg-housing-markets-high-risk-cmhc-says-1.3055471

#133 Tommy on 09.29.21 at 8:58 am

This is why some financial institutions are raising GIC rates in anticipation of the next 6 t 12 months because they know the GIC rates will be much higher.

They are not waiting for the Bank of Canada to raise rates. Mortgage rates will rise soon too without waiting for the Bank of Canada.

#134 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 8:59 am

#119 Philco

They had to release their source code to prove that stuff was clean.

——

May I ask that you read the posted link article in my original comment please? I’ll paste a little further detail here for ease for you and ask you this…How can the code be clean when there are regulations to ensure that there are backdoors in the code?

Huawei has been put in a corner, and it appears they called out the regulations and methods employed by US:

“Huawei said that just like other telecom vendors, it is “obligated to follow industry-wide lawful interception standards like 3GPP’s TS 33.107 standard for 3G networks, and TS 33.128 for 5G.” The “interception interfaces are always located in protected premises on the operator’s side,” and are administered and used “solely by carriers and regulators,” Huawei said.”

For clarity, since some appear to think I’m defending Huawei, I am not. I’m simply noting that Huawei is just like any US >insert brand here<.

None of them are trust worthy.

——

#116 mike from mtl

Point is which side and who is worse?

——

I'm not sure if that is the point mike.

I'm starting to see that democracy is but an illusion. The two main parties are just here to divide us, and thus conquer us. While we fight and disagree among ourselves like idiots, they do as they please and reap the profits – a dictatorship that changes in appearance only, but not in direction. How many more leaders that change nothing must we see to realize this?

What we have, or maybe even had was freedom of movement and freedom of speech. However, we appear to have surrendered these hard fought for freedoms – for which our grandparents gave their lives – with amazing ease. In fact, as we fight amongst ourselves to be right, those very freedoms are easily taken from us. In fact, we've started to demand that those rights be taken away – incredibly.

But back to your question…

China – does what it does in the name of ideals.
West, and specifically US does what it does in the name of capitalism and profit.

Pick your poison. Like our politicians, you're trying to pick the less-bad-one from two that are likely equally bad.

#135 Philco on 09.29.21 at 9:55 am

#134 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 8:59 am
———-

Im well aware of the short comings of the West. Politically we are bankrupt.
Ie “The Untold History of the United States” is a good example.

Let me ask were do you live? Were would you rather live?
Ive picked my poison.
Ive been all over Aisa and my wifes from there.
Go ask the Philippinos….they come to the west and they are not fans of China…or their policies.
So dont waist your breath for my sake……

#136 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.29.21 at 10:05 am

#28 Faron on 09.28.21 at 3:20 pm

#165 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.28.21 at 12:40 pm

Gimme a break, you would cry at any and all increases in any budget segment save for the military and police. At least own up to it. Jeepers

—-

Oh Foron, you 40%’er simpleton, did we take the time to really discover how little we know about eachother?

#137 Nonplused on 09.29.21 at 10:16 am

#130 the Jaguar on 09.29.21 at 8:44 am

“Some energy observers believe that ambitious climate policies are not in tune with the reality of the world’s current energy needs.

(no sh_t, Sherlock…)”

Oh well, just fire up those wind turbines, solar panels, and unicorn farts. Carry on….

———————————–

The current level of discussion regarding energy coming from the greens and the politicians reminds me of this scene in the kid’s movie “Ice Age” where the protagonists come across a flock of dodo birds who have stockpiled 3 watermelons to get them through the coming ice age, and are prepared to defend them to the death.

You can learn a lot about the nature of solar power by playing around with it on your RV if you have one. It’s nice to have but you still need a generator. Or maybe one can compare say a Jackery power station to a 2000 watt generator.

Here is the low down on the Jackery. The stats sound nice, maybe 1800 watts completely provided by lithium battery power. But 1 hour later the Jackery is a useless door stop until the power comes back on and you can charge it for 8 hours. The battery is exhausted. The generator, on the other hand, costs 1/4 as much and will run as long as you have fuel. With new tri-fuel generators becoming increasingly common and affordable, managing the fuel is only getting easier. Plus the generator doesn’t need a new battery every 7 years, just an oil change.

#138 Philco on 09.29.21 at 10:20 am

#134 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 8:59 am
——— xxxx
I find it appalling you even bother defending a company that is owned outright by group that has absolutely no regard for human rights.
Case in point The Huawei exc that was arrested in Canada enjoyed whatever she desired including shopping sprees while our 2 Michaels languished in prison or worse.
Sorry I dont support these types of organization period.
Respectfully go away.

#139 Dominoes Lining Up on 09.29.21 at 10:27 am

This could be fun!

Toronto may have to shut down parts of the TTC in days as less than half of employees are willing to disclose their vaccination status and are heading into a strike situation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ttc-vaccination-policy-refusal-strike-labour-board-1.6193265

Does Max drive a bus, too?

#140 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:35 am

#135 Philco

I believe that the question you ask is already answered.

What concerns me is that clearly our leaders look at what China can do with immense envy.

Chinese leaders clearly have more power, and the west is irritated by being inferior in this case. And we’re feeling it lately with what is being done and how it is being done.

I have always felt that instead of just China lifting everyone up to our level, the truth was going to be that we’d have to be taken down a few notches too.

And so that will apply to our choice of where to live – the difference soon may not be so big.

#141 Philco on 09.29.21 at 10:41 am

There’s a high possibility that the 2 abused Michaels Huawei stuff is now sorted out.
Canada may likely announce that Huawei will be blocked from 5G installation here.
It would have been a poor time to announce that due to the bind we were put in and would have further increased tensions.
We shale see.

#142 IHCTD9 on 09.29.21 at 10:46 am

Well – I hope we blow a tire soon. I’ve stopped making predictions based on metrics connected to the cost of money. Before the pandemic I’d laugh at the house humpers and GTA suffering and tell ’em to move to the sticks for the good life.

The pandemic motivated many to do just that, and now that they’re moving in, all the same BS you see in the GTA is happening here too.

Holding offers, 30-40% y/y increases, folks buying and holding everything in sight trying to cash in, everyone talking real estate. Lots of houses for sale have no sign out front because the listing agent works out of Toronto. “Business opportunities” for sale at prices that would make Trump blush. There is a sense in the air that these GTA folks have more money than brains – so the local MLS really is comedy hour.

#143 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 10:55 am

#5 Nick on 09.28.21 at 2:13 pm
.
Stock prices dropped today.
Housing did not.
Buy a house in lower Brainland.
————————-
Lower Brainland!
Very witty.
But you know this is trademarked by CEF?
Expect a letter from his lawyer.

But you’re right about RE prices.
They seem to go against the National trend.
Could it be immigration?

#144 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:57 am

#138 Philco

Well, don’t wrap yourself in that safety blanket of human rights abuses.

A drone may come around, drop a hellfire missile upon your family, kill 7 children and be declared as a righteous strike and conducted correctly by highest Generals. Probably because these were Afghani children I’m guessing? Why should anyone care about those? Are they even human beings? Should they have human rights?

We here clearly have a bias on this view of human rights. We see ourselves as righteous, but remember, one finger points at them, 3 fingers point right back. You want me to list our human rights abuses for you? I believe I can spare you the list, yes?

Silicon Valley is spy-central.
US Tech are biggest CREEPS in the world.
They deploy addictive tech and psychological warfare on our children. And we welcome them with open arms, the idiots that we are.

Didn’t US court of appeals for the ninth circuit rule the surveillance that Snowden exposed was illegal? Why is he not allowed to come back to US?

#145 Philco on 09.29.21 at 11:12 am

0 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:35 am
#135 Philco
I believe that the question you ask is already answered.
What concerns me is that clearly our leaders look at what China can do with immense envy.
—————————————–
Ok I concur in a big way!
Yes our human rights are diminishing we are in near a police state now..
That is the model democratic states desire and it is clearly the direction in while we are rapidly moving. Hell they openly admit that!
Democracy is an illusion and they ARE dividing us. If anyone knows their history this is how its is accomplished. COVIDs been a great tool for that.
They are closing the gap in these regards.
I don’t see a whole hell of a lot a good out front neither do my business colleagues.
Sorry I don’t have time to read all comments.

#146 Faron on 09.29.21 at 11:16 am

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 5:39 am
112 Faron on 09.28.21 at 10:31 pm
#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.28.21 at 6:57 pm
@#63 Faron

He’s hard to pin down, is he not?

Indeed. Luckily, I don’t care.

#147 Philco on 09.29.21 at 11:20 am

#144 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:57 am
—————————————–
I know Alex….we know just how corrupt the gov is or has been. He was the top broker in TO years ago.
Gov changes the rules to suit their desires and or CYA…all the time.
https://alexdoulis.com/doulis.html

#148 Do we have all the facts on 09.29.21 at 11:26 am

It would seem that many contributors to the comments section have forgotten that all governments must increase rates in order to create the room necessary to respond to future economic downturns.

Leaving interest rates low as the economy recovers will lead to inflation that can only be controlled by increasing the cost of borrowing. There is no multiple choice for governments once an economy begins to recover.

An increase in interest rates has always followed economic recovery. Why would this time be an exception?

Cycles occur for a reason and no amount of ‘hopium’ can delay the inevitable.

#149 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.29.21 at 11:32 am

#144 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:57 am
#138 Philco

Well, don’t wrap yourself in that safety blanket of human rights abuses.

A drone may come around, drop a hellfire missile upon your family, kill 7 children and be declared as a righteous strike and conducted correctly by highest Generals. Probably because these were Afghani children I’m guessing? Why should anyone care about those? Are they even human beings? Should they have human rights?

—-

Well, it depends if they vote conservative or not. If so, definitely not human beings then.

#150 Sail Away on 09.29.21 at 11:32 am

#1, baby. Never bet against Elon.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/news/elon-musk-says-he-s-sending-jeff-bezos-a-silver-medal-and-a-giant-statue-of-the-number-2-after-surpassing-him-again-to-become-the-world-s-richest-person/ar-AAOVIpy?ocid=msedgntp

And Tesla full self driving is out for general use:

https://nypost.com/2021/09/27/tesla-expands-full-self-driving-tests-bucking-feds-concerns/

#151 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 11:35 am

DELETED

#152 Philco on 09.29.21 at 11:45 am

#144 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:57 am
———————-
Snowden’s my hero…a true patriot.

#153 Geena on 09.29.21 at 11:50 am

The real estate crash in Canada is going to be epic and a perfect opportunity for the Liberals, NDP, Green Party, socialists, communists, marxists, social engineering NGO”s, Soros crowd, blah, blah, blah to put many Canadians into government housing.

Keep destroying the private sector and private investment, private citizens and keep pumping up the debt trap. You will be sick of government very soon.

#154 Quintilian on 09.29.21 at 11:59 am

“The pandemic motivated many to do just that, and now that they’re moving in, all the same BS you see in the GTA is happening here too”

Yes, because lies that trigger irrational human frailties and are powerful springs of action regardless where applied, be it Toronto or Hicksville.

It is true, history does not repeat itself but it sure rhymes.

In Canada’s early history, when the beavers become harder and harder to find because of over hunting, the “Coureur des bois” moved further and further into the bush until that strategy ended in no beavers left.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#155 Stacey on 09.29.21 at 12:00 pm

For all those naive, blindly followers wanting to buy electric cars. You are not going to save and money as you want to stick it the big oi, gas companies. They will just put much more, higher taxes on your car, vehicle, electricity prices and other energy prices on top of carbon taxes to make sure you are savings neutral in the short run, meaning you will never save any more money. When they mean revenue neutral, they mean for you not for the government. Good luck Canadians. Actually, you will be in much more debt to power your car, vehicles for decades.

Many states in the US put a bunch of taxes on those that save too much electricity by using solar panels on their houses, properties. The government subsidies, tax credits and projections of those selling these things duped alot of people in thinking they were going to save thousands a year in energy costs. They thought a 10 maybe 12 year break even and they even financed these things. Thy clearly found years layer they got screwed.

#156 Philco on 09.29.21 at 12:02 pm

#144 Spy vs. Spy on 09.29.21 at 10:57 am
———————————
Big Tech is a serious problem and in cahoots with Gov….they actually pull the strings as they have the money now. Citizens kicked to the curb and that’s the reality.

#157 Boomer on 09.29.21 at 12:13 pm

We need more young people to work and pay for my pensions and termite infested house!
Sincerely,
A Boomer

#158 Sail Away on 09.29.21 at 12:44 pm

#154 Quintilian on 09.29.21 at 11:59 am

In Canada’s early history, when the beavers become harder and harder to find because of over hunting, the “Coureur des bois” moved further and further into the bush until that strategy ended in no beavers left.

——–

Beavers are almost always trapped, not hunted. They are endearingly elusive little critters that can be attracted with alluring scents and irresistible foods, or by manufacturing a beaver emergency.

Once a beaver has been obtained it needs to be handled with great care in order to maintain value and a shiny, lustrous sheen. Always be aware of the interest others may have for a beaver in your care. Value, as with most things, increases with scarcity.

#159 S.Bby on 09.29.21 at 1:06 pm

#121 ulsterman

How many decades have housing bears been waiting for this inevitable crash when all prices do is keep increasing and interest rates keep decreasing. Rates will never go up because it’s suicide both politically and economically of they did. CBs can print endlessly and issue new debt and buy government bonds until forever. It is their mandate to inflate otherwise the alternative is disaster and they will move heaven and earth to prevent that from happening. IDK why some people just can’t see this.

#160 Quintilian on 09.29.21 at 1:14 pm

#158 Sail Away on 09.29.21 at 12:44 pm Hollow logic

” Value, as with most things, increases with scarcity.”

With a stroke of a pen the hillbillies that run city hall can, and will rezone the land use, as it becomes more feasible, and of course there is no scarcity of stupidity and greed within that cohort.

#161 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.29.21 at 1:22 pm

58 Sail Away on 09.29.21 at 12:44 pm
#154 Quintilian on 09.29.21 at 11:59 am

In Canada’s early history, when the beavers become harder and harder to find because of over hunting, the “Coureur des bois” moved further and further into the bush until that strategy ended in no beavers left.

——–

Beavers are almost always trapped, not hunted. They are endearingly elusive little critters that can be attracted with alluring scents and irresistible foods, or by manufacturing a beaver emergency.

Once a beaver has been obtained it needs to be handled with great care in order to maintain value and a shiny, lustrous sheen. Always be aware of the interest others may have for a beaver in your care. Value, as with most things, increases with scarcity.
————————-
I can see you’re watching the series “Mountain Men”, too.
Tom Oar is a master trapper and a genius in preparing the fur.
He’s using the beaver’s own brain to tan the pelt.
An old native trick.
And he’s 76, and still at it.

#162 Planetgoofy on 09.29.21 at 9:21 pm

And in power again….unreal.
How ignorant can some be??
https://rumble.com/embed/viyf5l/?pub=2pssx

#163 old engineer on 09.30.21 at 6:56 am

Safety and security is a basic human need. Shelter is a big part of that so it makes sense that how to get it and the fear of being without it gets a lot of attention in public policy, the press and the dinner table.

Unless you can own a place outright, the fear of being without shelter is always there. Missing a mortgage payment or missing a rent payment amounts to pretty much the same thing – a fear of being on the path to ruin. So from this perspective, renters and owners are in the same boat and we rely on someone else (usually an employer) to provide us with the means to pay for shelter.

The market value of the shelter plays into another human need to be recognized as successful. But being successful could be defined as having all of our needs looked after without relying on trading our time for money to live. So having an expensive house and a big payment obligation is the opposite of successful – “all hat and no cattle” as some have said.

So strive to live without fear. Rent and build cash flow or buy and pay it off if you can or buy and cash out your unrealized gains down the road so that you are free from employment income to meet basic needs. Keep it balanced!