The opposite

E-day plus two. Yesterday we looked at some tax consequences of the new Liberal mandate. The bank tax. The Capital gains issue. Another hit on high incomes. A federal assault on REITs. The weird new FHSA. And the long-term implications of neverending deficits.

Now, what about real estate?

As you know, the words “housing crisis” rolled off the lips of Trudeau, O’Toole and Singh at most campaign stops. All the parties put measures to make property more affordable at the heart of their campaigns. It’s hard to know what the worst voter turnout in Canadians history means, however. Were people afraid of the virus? Did Elections Canada really screw up the process that badly? Was the election an unwanted summer distraction? Do people just not believe the promises anymore?

Well, the Libs won. So now we know what to expect. Maybe. And if you’ve been waiting for cheaper listings, the news is not good. Here are some reasons why the 2021 election outcome will (a) increase demand for residential real estate, (b) inflate this asset class further and (c) make personal finances worse by augmenting mortgage debt, which is already epic.

First, loans are about to get bigger. The T2 gang has pledged to change the CMHC mortgage insurance ceiling. Currently anyone buying a property for $1 million or more cannot sign up for this insurance, which means they must have 20% down to qualify for financing. But the Libs say that will increase by 25%, to a cap pf $1.25 million. Not only does this mean the kids can buy a more expensive property with the same downpayment, they can soon purchase a seven-figure property with as little as 5% down and 20x leverage. More demand, bigger borrowings, higher prices. If you’re selling a property listed at $995,000, wait. Soon you can ask $1,245,000.

Now, there’s more. The very cost of mortgage insurance will be slashed by 25%. This is significant since everybody adds CMHC premiums to the mortgage principal, which are then amortized, amplifying the impact. The Libs say this will save buyers amount 4% of the cost of a home – which means they can spend 4% more. In the GTA that’s about $40,000 tacked on to the average price.

Third, the federal government wants to finance your closing costs. The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit is doubling, to $10,000. This is money that can be used to pay for land transfer tax, legal fees, your mover or a new fridge and “make a home purchase a little bit easier.” More demand.

As detailed yesterday, the jewel in the crown of property pumping is the First Home Savings Account. For those under 40, it means forty grand can be contributed, used to reduce income taxes, grown tax-free in a shelter then withdrawn – also without tax – to buy a home, with no payback of refunds received. It’s an RRSP and a TFSA and Elon rocket fuel for the market, all combined. More demand.

The Libs will change the shared-equity mortgage, wherein Ottawa carries part of the debt for homeowners, allowing people to keep all the property appreciation. A new rent-to-own program will be enacted using $1 billion in taxpayer money “to help make it easier for renters to get on the path to home ownership.” Then there’s the Multigenerational Home Reno Tax Credit which will dole out more tax money in the form of credits to finance up to $50,000 in renovation and construction costs so a secondary or rental unit can be added to a house. And if you can’t pay your mortgage because of a financial reversal, the government will ensure that forbearance is guaranteed.

Well, there is more. You get the drift. This is a formula for increased residential real estate activity at precisely the wrong moment.

Snapshot of a sick market: the GTA

Source: Stephen Glaysher

Why are prices stupid high and affordability so low? Simple. Too much demand, too little supply. The combination of emergency interest rates, generous pandemic income support measures, urban flight because of the virus, WFH, demographics and the resultant FOMO have created a housing feeding frenzy. High prices have frozen supply since sellers can’t afford to move and owners watch their equity rise weekly.

For example, in the first eight months of 2020 almost a quarter of all sales in the GTA were properties under $600,000. In the same period this year that fell to 15%. The average property price crossed $1 million for the first time in 2021 and in both Toronto and Vancouver $2 million is the new norm for an average, not-too-crappy, detached house. But incomes have barely moved. And we still have Covid. Meanwhile listings have dropped to the lowest level in a decade.

Hot demand and scant supply.

So what’s the outcome of this election? Yup, more demand. No more supply. The opposite of what we need. Erstwhile, pledges to spank flippers and ban foreign buyers are but salves to the uneducated and emotional, since neither explain prices that currently engulf our citizens in debt.

While political leaders decry the ‘financialization of housing’ they actively politicize it. Way worse. The risk grows.

About the picture: “Here’s one for you next “sitting pretty” post (which could be a while, as so few seem to be!),” writes Jay. “This is Hemi, a rescue we got just before Covid hit. We call this his throne, he won’t let anyone else sit on it lol. Keep up the good words!” Have a pooch to share with us? Send me a pic: [email protected] – Garth

218 comments ↓

#1 Wait There on 09.22.21 at 10:36 am

When everyone is deep in debt they then rely on the government for everything. That is the ultimate goal same playbook practiced elsewhere.
Remember all those tax credits only means someone else will have to pay what is not collected. If you are over 40, you’ve been had and most don’t even know it.

#2 Devil Anse on 09.22.21 at 10:43 am

When we combine all these measures like First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, Shared-Equity Mortgage etc. with policies like taxing REITs & banks and increasing the capital gain exemption on financial assets, it is clear that those who eschew debt, live within their means and save and invest for the future are about to get screwed.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.21 at 10:51 am

But but but,
Trudeau PROMISED to build 1,000,000 new homes in less than two years!

Was he lying ?

#4 opee on 09.22.21 at 10:55 am

Strategies, oh strategies, what to do? The C’s could look at T2, how did he do it? T1’s son is one, right hair & looks help too, if the opposition is weak and not well know, that must be it. Let’s then go for it, a new leader that is an orator, like a Churchill, a leader who sees the ccp could impact results, so do something. A leader that sets the house on fire and draws them in like flies. Maybe Mc.Kay? can move the red tide to blue? Who do you choose? Who could impact your vote next time?

#5 Prince Polo on 09.22.21 at 10:55 am

The big 5 will also likely all secretly agree to bumping up their mortgage rates to cover the “we punish successful businesses” tax that our dear Photo-op Minister will implement. Thanks JT!

#6 Doug t on 09.22.21 at 11:01 am

Bubble bubble toil and trouble

#7 Abc123 on 09.22.21 at 11:02 am

No strike against financial assets at all really but it seems that with all the federal help to drive home values continually higher it does seem that the average Canadian is better served owning as much RE as he can , at the expense of all else.

I mean if the feds will just keep enhancing home ownership programs , while looking at increasing cap gain taxes to the detriment of financial assets , then housing has a tailwind as per the usual.

#8 TurnerNation on 09.22.21 at 11:02 am

Life in Kanada. Want to go to a beer festival? As you did all those years past? Not so fast. All the fun has been sucked out – in the New System.
Almost back to normal guys!! SO close. I can feel it.
‘The Covid Compliance Team’? Jesus. What a ball.

https://fallbeerfestto.com/#
“”Your ticket to the event is void and you will be denied access to the event if you do not show valid proof of vaccination with a matching government issued photo ID.
Contact tracking must be submitted upon arrival to the festival. Signage will be posted with a QR code for guests to access with the camera on their phone. If no access to data, a text message option is available.
Temperature check at the gate, anyone with a temperature of 37.6℃ or greater will be asked to leave immediately, to self-isolate, and to self-monitor for further symptoms.
Masks must be worn when interacting with festival staff and/​or in areas when social distancing is not an option.
The Covid Compliance Team and Security will be enforcing these measures. Violators will be asked to adhere to the rules or will be escorted off the property.|

…..
…..
Not in Kanada! We are slated for several more years of destruction. There is NO plan to “fully reopen”. That’s NOT in the plan.

.Covid-19 in Norway can now be compared to the flu, says health chiefCOVID-19 (thelocal.no)
……….
………
— DOLCE: Science is different here. Seen elsewhere.

“Hidden in BC Health’s fine print:
*’Unvaccinated is defined as no doses or within 3 weeks of 1st dose’

In other words if someone has 1st dose within 21 days and catches covid, they’re now classed as unvaccinated, rather than ‘partial’ (they’ve added a week longer on).
(Page 19)
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/2021-09-16_Data_Summary.pdf

#9 Woke up this morning... on 09.22.21 at 11:05 am

First let me say, I probably don’t know what I’m talking about. But…

We had the CBs coordinated QE and low interest effort for over a decade.

This Evergrande thing sounds like China will prop up an socialize elements, but let the external capitalists eat losses.

RE Prices in China apparently up 600%. 50 million apartments (22% of total stock) sitting empty.

Will this not make investors reluctant to buy bonds at these low rates going forward? Or at all? Or in certain risky geographies?

And so, CBs will end up buying their own debt because no one else will. WAIT A MINUTE! Isn’t that happening already and for some time? Only CBs looking after their own debt?

And so CBs of a country will lend itself endless amounts because no one else wants to buy it. No problem in this?
Something just doesn’t add up. This could become weaponized or protectionist. Or both.

The older I get the less faith I have in securities, cash, bonds, all the paper. Just seems like when someone yells fire, those will get trampled. And surely we’re do for the big one, just like L.A.

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am

Just checking:
Canada’s death rate is about 300k a year.
Immigration is supposed to be around 300 k.
Why do we need all that new housing?

#11 Woke up this morning... on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am

First let me say, I probably don’t know what I’m talking about. But…

We had the CBs coordinated QE and low interest effort for over a decade.

This Evergrande thing sounds like China will prop up an socialize elements, but let the external capitalists eat losses.

RE Prices in China apparently up 600%. 50 million apartments (22% of total stock) sitting empty.

Will this not make investors reluctant to buy bonds at these low rates going forward? Or at all? Or in certain risky geographies?

And so, CBs will end up buying their own debt because no one else will. WAIT A MINUTE! Isn’t that happening already and for some time? Only CBs looking after their own debt?

And so CBs of a country will lend itself endless amounts because no one else wants to buy it. No problem in this?
Something just doesn’t add up. This could become weaponized or protectionist. Or both.

The older I get the less faith I have in securities, cash, bonds, all the paper. Just seems like when someone yells fire, those will get trampled. And surely we’re due for the big one, just like L.A.

#12 yvr_lurker on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am

Then just wait until more instability occurs in Hong Kong and a percentage of the 300K Canadian passport holders there decide that the situation is intolerable and migrate to our large cities putting even more pressure on housing. This group will generally have considerable resources.

#13 Woke up this morning... on 09.22.21 at 11:12 am

Also, the issue of Housing is a Human Right has yet to be addressed in Canada I believe.

Can someone point to non-socialist countries that declare “housing as a human right” please? I think Canada is alone on this one. And it is clear: https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/N-11.2/FullText.html

I Googled here and there and found this FASCINATING tidbit about the US for example.

Most jurisdictions in the United States have no right to shelter. One exception is Massachusetts, where families (but not homeless individuals) do have the right to shelter.

Only a lawyer/politician could have come up with that nugget of gold in Massachusetts. You want a funny sentence, read the one that starts with “One exception” again. Read it out loud! I know! Crazy.

#14 Quintilian on 09.22.21 at 11:13 am

Could we then speculate that it would be a great timing to publish a book titled?

The Lesser Fool: The Bright and Profitable Future of Real Estate

#15 Damifino on 09.22.21 at 11:16 am

It’s all about the dogs now. Everything else is simply to depressing to think about. So… nice pup!!

#16 Phylis on 09.22.21 at 11:18 am

Jeepers. Buying a home sounds like the old adage of paying taxes. How much money do you have? Now give it to me.

#17 TurnerNation on 09.22.21 at 11:30 am

— The War on Small Business continues. A big part of this global WW3. Ditto War on Travel/Movement.

.Small businesses struggling to handle $139 billion in debt: CFIB report (tnc.news)

.The Wrecking of New York City: Accident or Design? Opinion Piece (brownstone.org)

.US lawmakers urge Biden to lift Canadian border restrictions (tnc.news)

——-

Watch the food supply. Been posting for years on here that all famines were government-made.
This one is not excepting that.

Australia – gee I don’t know maybe the state of PERMANENT Economic lockdowns?

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/why-woolworths-coles-and-aldi-shelves-across-sydney-are-looking-bare/news-story/5a0467f1139f6b109002588ba1fccc3b
“Why Woolworths, Coles and Aldi shelves across Sydney are looking bare.
Over the weekend, as the state entered its 11th week of lockdown, frustrated shoppers at Woolworths, Coles and Aldi stores in Greater Sydney took to social media to share pictures of seriously depleted shopping aisles.”

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/lifestyle/think-brexit-food-shortages-are-bad-now-wait-until-october-285428/
“Think Brexit food shortages are bad now? Wait until October
New checks coming into effect from 1st October look to make food shortages worsen and increase prices”

#18 Don Guillermo on 09.22.21 at 11:37 am

Calgary’s newly elected Liberal MP George Chahal should fit in well with team Trudeau as he’s already showing he shares their ethics. Sources say he could be eyed to play a “powerful” role in the Federal government going forward. Oh, Canada.

https://calgarysun.com/news/election-2021/liberal-calgary-mp-allegedly-caught-on-camera-nicking-opponents-flyer

#19 Bat Dance on 09.22.21 at 11:54 am

STOP THE PRESS!

Holy Tintinnabulation!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wuhan-scientists-sought-to-infect-bats-with-coronavirus-18-months-before-first-case-documents-show

>>>>
Documents show that just 18 months before the first COVID-19 cases appeared, researchers submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, located about 2,000 km southwest of Wuhan.

They also planned to create chimeric viruses genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily and requested US$14 million from the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

They hoped to introduce “human-specific cleavage sites” to bat coronaviruses which would make it easier for the virus to enter humans. When COVID-19 was genetically sequenced, scientists were puzzled about how the virus had evolved such a human-specific adaptation at the cleavage site on the spike protein, which is why it is so infectious.

#20 some guy on 09.22.21 at 11:58 am

I don’t understand what the end game is here. Are they knowingly trying to inflate price of housing or just blind to it? Or is the goal just to pander and get re-elected every term?

It would make a little more sense if they introduced more regulation and transparency in the real-estate industry first before enabling more speculation.

#21 Sam on 09.22.21 at 11:59 am

Could affordability get worse?

I’m imagining if Evergrande gets really bad, with worldwide contagion effects, and co-ordinated central bank actions have rates stay down or get even lower for a long time.

Canada hasn’t had a broad housing price drop since 1990.

Has China ever had a broad price drop?

#22 Barb on 09.22.21 at 12:01 pm

Mr. Noormohammed is sure to like the $50K renovation “fund”.

#23 Vancouver Realtor on 09.22.21 at 12:04 pm

Uppa Uppa Uppa!

#24 My Body My Choice on 09.22.21 at 12:07 pm

Taxman – Sung by Stevie Ray Vaughan:

“Let me tell you how it will be
There’s one for you, nineteen for me
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman

Should five per cent appear too small
Be thankful I don’t take it all
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah I’m the taxman

If you drive a car, I’ll tax the street,
If you try to sit, I’ll tax your seat.
If you get too cold I’ll tax the heat,
If you take a walk, I’ll tax your feet

Don’t ask me what I want it for
If you don’t want to pay some more
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman

Now my advice for those who die
Declare the pennies on your eyes
‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman
And you’re working for no one but me”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNDYArDUgSg

#25 Millennial 1%er on 09.22.21 at 12:12 pm

As a homeowner: Not My Problem

#26 David Pylyp on 09.22.21 at 12:14 pm

You are very correct in your post.

The extra variable will be the MPAC RESET now on COVID lockdown. That 70% phase in will occur shortly.

The other is energy costs to heat light your home and car.

It will be a cold dark winter as oil hits $100 per barrel by year end.

Enjoy the choices we have made.

David Pylyp
Toronto

#27 alexinvestor on 09.22.21 at 12:15 pm

There’s a saying that if you sit by the river long enough, you’ll see the bodies of your enemy float by. The question is whether one can wait the requisite amount of time. Watching detached houses in the GTA zoom past 1.5m is somewhat depressing … and I actually own a house.

#28 Nick on 09.22.21 at 12:16 pm

.
Long story short – buy a home (and as many as you can) NOW, in lower Brainland. This will never ever ever crash, atleast in next 10 years.

#29 Renter on 09.22.21 at 12:16 pm

How do we move our b n d portfolio out of Canada?

#30 Honest Realtor on 09.22.21 at 12:20 pm

Garth, I wouldn’t call this a sick market at all.

In fact, great opportunity lies ahead for all who can join the real estate market’s next upward cycle, which I think will probably last until at least 2035.

I don’t mind sharing with you, my phone has been ringing steadily since yesterday lunchtime, and I have never seen as many emails in one day as this morning. Smart buyers are jumping on the possibilities with our new government policies ahead, and I don’t blame them. I’ve already got three new buyer agreements and at this pace will probably have ten or more by the weekend. Best ever for my small firm and staff. Some callers simply want to set up a connection before next spring when all the new regs should be in line.

Opportunity is knocking and smart buyers and sellers are realizing that, even before the changes.

#31 Anyone but Trudeau but not Jagmeet.. on 09.22.21 at 12:24 pm

DELETED

#32 Dolce Vita on 09.22.21 at 12:25 pm

THUGGERY by the Financially illiterate of Canada and the Gov they have just elected…and WHY.

#114 Faron on 09.21.21 at 5:36 pm
“Can someone enlighten me as to why the cap gains inclusion rate should be anything less than 100%?”

Yes, but doubtful you will pay attention nonetheless here a video by Steve Forbes for your enlightenment, 2:57 min:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2021/04/27/why-bidens-capital-gains-tax-is-bad-news-for-investors/?sh=781238ce1641

I would worry less about conoscenti words to convey superior and “in the know” knowledge such as “velocity” and worry more about there being little or no money to “velocity” with in the first place.

So, if investors will not sell stocks and/or reinvest elsewhere (anywhere but Canada) so as not to be onerously taxed then where will the Capital come from in lieu?

The Banks.

The Lib Gov & Associate TikTok Gov want to lay a surtax of 3% on Bank profits (page 1, line 1 under New Revenues from the Liberal Forward. For Everyone Fiscal and Costing Plan, I will call it the “Manifesto” from here on in):
https://liberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/292/2021/09/Forward-For-Everyone-Financial-and-Costing-Plan.pdf

The next line item called the Canada Recovery Dividend seeks to do the SAME to the Banks, Insurance companies et. al. (read the “Tax measures worth $2.5 billion per year say Liberals” paragraph):
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-hike-taxes-banks-1.6152710

The $2.5 billion/year comes from the 3% surtax + Canada Recovery Dividend in the “Manifesto” (add the 3% surtax to the Canada Recovery Dividend line items to arrive at about $2.5 billion per year).

In effect, 2 NEW TAXES on financial institutions.

If someone takes tax money out of your pocket in 2 NEW AND NOVEL WAYS, over and above what you already pay, will you just sit there and take it? What will you do?

Most likely you will find OTHER sources of cash to make up the difference and/or CUT costs (the most well known and fastest way to cut costs is LAYOFFS).

I leave how to “find other sources of cash” to your imagination. Suggestions:

Increased bank service fees? Demanding HELOC principal repayments, in part or in whole, and/or higher HELOC interest rates? Decreased deposit account, GIC interest rates? Higher credit card interest rates and/or clawback of perks (credit card debt is $3,300 per person on average in Canada, see: https://www.transunion.ca/lp/IIR)?

The sky is the limit.

To add insult to accident, the “Additional revenue from CRA reducing tax gap (net cost)” line item in the “Manifesto” MEANS Revenue Canada will go after TAX EVADERS. They are already doing that. Somehow Gov & Associate TikTok Gov Canada believe they will find MORE of these tax evaders.

Suggested evaders besides EVIL CORPORATIONS (that employ you):

Ma & Pa owners of rental units not declaring or understating rental income. They are legion most likely in Toronto, Vancouver et. al. where a high proportion own a 2nd home or more that is rented out.

The possibilities are endless.

All you low income “Hospitality Industry Servers” that don’t report fully TIP income be warned (and that voted to tax the Rich who gave you the tip in the first place).

This is what financially illiterate Canadians voted for – thugs.

But THE REAL KICKER is this, written so an imbecile can understand:

Higher Gov debt→Higher Gov interest payments→Less Gov money to pay for programs.

This happened when Chretien inherited the huge deficit started by Pierre Trudeau (paltry by todays comparison). ⅓, ONE THIRD, of every Gov Canada dollar received went to pay for interest on debt.

They had to CUT PROGRAM SPENDING to pay down the debt and lower the interest payments. Ya, but they won’t take my Child Benefit, my $10/day child daycare money away…will they?

It is a sword that will fall upon itself.

THIS is what “off with their heads” THUG financially illiterate Canadians voted for.

“The government you elect is the government you deserve.”
― Thomas Jefferson

—————

* For FUN peruse New Investments, pp 2-4 in the “Manifesto”. My favorites, empty lines intentional for effect/bewilderment:

– $1.1 Billion for Safer indoor air (beware Canada, your indoor air isn’t safe)
– $5 Billion to Help cities accelerate housing construction (new business for them)
– $ZERO Billion for $10 a Day Child Care for Families (already in the 2021 budget @ about $27.5 billion)
– $1 billion for Letting parents pause their Canada student loans (lots of parents back to school?)
– $1.5 Billion for Permanently eliminating interest on Canada student loans (pause + eliminate)
– $2.5 Billion for Career Extension Credit for workers over 65 (encourage Granny and Grandad to work longer = deluge of WalMart Greeters)
– $400 Million for Modernizing the CBC / Radio-Canada, expect Global and CTV to cry that they are not modern too

– $25 Million Menstrual equity fund

– $600 Million Tax credit for home appliance repairs

…the list of Lib & Assoc. TikTok Gov Social Engineering “Manifesto” spending goes on and on. Have a READ Canada!

It’s what you voted for Canada.

Canada, you will soon face a CUT to these programs as Chretien had to do, INTEREST on DEBT will sky rocket under Trudeau more with his Associate TikTok. Enjoy the perks while you can or in modern day parlance:

YOLO.

#33 Nat on 09.22.21 at 12:26 pm

Why am I still shocked and sickened by the governments idiotic policies on housing. Every person with half a brain knows this won’t help housing, who is in the drivers seat???? This is terrifying

#34 earthboundmisfit on 09.22.21 at 12:26 pm

Government giving money to people to buy houses they can’t afford. Yeah that makes a whole lotta sense.

Memo to Elections Canada: No more elections at or near the full moon. The lunatics are now definitely now running the asylum.

Time to trim the REIT holdings, folks?

#35 Dolce Vita on 09.22.21 at 12:29 pm

#154 Phylis on 09.21.21 at 8:13 pm
“Pressure from investors will create a switch to dividends and less growth, won’t it? Call that skirting if you want.”

Absolutely correct #154 Phylis. I will wait until November to see if they plan to increase the tax on Capital Gains. If they do, I will do this with my THREADBARE stock investments:

(1) Sell low dividend, high price growth ETFs like VFV ($15.41 price growth/USD $99.25 price, 1% dividend yield YTD) and put that into lower price growth and high dividend ETFs. Plenty of them out there. Good source ranked by dividend yield, assess the risk on your own *:
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=152&f=fa_div_o7,sh_price_u10&o=-dividendyield&c=0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,14,65,66,67

[I have already started the switch over]

(2) Transfer my threadbare non-TFSA investment fund to Italia and use their quasi-TFSA called PIR. A few more restrictions to prevent foolhardy investing + more EU investing but still a Tax Shelter of up to €150K.

So yes, expect capital dollars to shift where they will not be taxed as much (e.g., low price growth, high dividend stock) or offshore where they cannot be taxed at all by Canada (Italia will tax me too but at a lower capital gains tax than Canada contemplates, Google Search “what is the capital gain exemption in Italy”). And YES, less capital investment per my prior Comment.

Doubtful I am the only one contemplating this in Canada (save the Italia option). And I’m just a “little guy” stock investor with a threadbare investment portfolio. Imagine what the heavyweights that read this Blog will do???

ITALIA CAPITAL GAINS TOURIST TIP or how I moved my money to another country so Trudeau and TikTok can’t get their grubby little hands on it:

Read 1st two sentences under point 3b) near the bottom of the page:

https://www.fieldfisher.com/en/insights/italy-s-new-capital-gains-tax-regime-for-nonresident-companies

Incorporation easy.

* Many other investment options such as ETNs (in effect a derivative that is 6% out of the money in covered calls they write and pass on the premium profit to the investor) such as Credit Suisse USOI:

$0.57 price growth/USD $5.18 price, 21.8% dividend yield YTD, 1 yr forecast USD $8.84 price.

High risk, low price capital gain if I sell, higher dividends taxed at a lower tax rate. Though some ETNs designed to go to $0 **. If only there were a CMHC for stock investing. I’d jump right on top of USOI like yesterday.

** Here is some “velocity” for you #114 Faron on 09.21.21 at 5:36 pm:

“Credit Suisse ‘volatility’ fund liquidated after market selloff”
[Credit Suisse’s VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term Exchange-Traded Note (ETN) XIV.P]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-credit-suisse-gp-notes-idUSKBN1FQ256

Caveat Emptor.

“The long term expected value of your ETNs is zero,” the prospectus said.

Being able to read financial “stuff” an asset. Lost on financially illiterate “off with their heads” Canadians that voted in a Drama Teacher for a PM and a Journalist in charge of the nations finances egged on by Social Engineering TikTok.

What could possibly go wrong?

Hint:

Higher Gov debt→Higher Gov interest payments→Less Gov money to pay for programs.

No more cake and eat it too.

Imagine that?

#36 Dolce Vita on 09.22.21 at 12:42 pm

“A federal assault on REITs.”
– Garth

Now you know why I bought O • NYSE.

Pass that on to Doug Rowat that suggested I buy Cdn REITs instead.

—————–

You have it all wrong Garth.

Putting more money in the hands of many more people (DEMAND) with Housebuilders and existing inventory unable to keep pace (SUPPLY) I mean that will have no effect on PRICE:

https://i.imgur.com/6iDtPJT.png

Geez Garth, you’re such a killjoy.

#37 Leftover on 09.22.21 at 12:57 pm

Agree that spurring demand is exactly the opposite of what needs to happen.

Let’s see how the US Fed behaves in the next 12 months. 2022 is an election year (!) and there’s trouble in the hills. Biden Democrats aren’t natural MMT devotees.

We’re sitting ducks in the meantime.

#38 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 1:00 pm

The influx of GTA’ers seeking to own RE is still hot and heavy here in the sticks. One thing that’s been noticed is the regular occurrence of pooled immigrant/newish Canadian money pouring in. Usually family, usually 2, sometimes three generations worth. Sometimes a group of 4-5 dudes all about the same age together checking out a house. Also the classic BoM+D or other family cash backing up new buyers. Everything I’ve read about for years is now happening right here, 2+ hours away from Toronto.

When you think about it, there are now millions of New Canucks in Canada, and an entire generation of born Canadians – who have never seen homes go down, or rates really move up. It’s been 20 years. No fear or caution to be found anywhere.

If/when things blow at this point, we’re not just talking about a single person or family unit getting smoked – we’re talking entire extended families getting creamed. Multiple generations taking the front kick. Whole groups of people getting cleaned out on a single house.

Man, I wouldn’t touch Canadian Real Estate right now with a 10 foot pole if I were a FTHB. In fact, I think I’d be making plans to get the hell out of here. To many insane folks for my liking. 30-40% y/y backwater hick town RE increases no matter where you look. I’d rather watch it all blow sky-high from a safe distance.

#39 Flop… on 09.22.21 at 1:00 pm

Let’s see what the three amigos cook up next.

The Woke…Liberals.

The Broke…NDP.

The Joke…Conservative…

M47BC

#40 the jaguar on 09.22.21 at 1:04 pm

Hemi. So adorable and photogenic. He exudes confidence and contentment. Thank you for giving him a beautiful life.

#41 Healey1 on 09.22.21 at 1:07 pm

As usual the comments on E-day plus two are spot on! A house of a relative in Caledon just sold for over $350000 ask! 30+ years old with a lot of work needed to modernize. So yes, low listings and large demand and this is just tip of iceberg given your comments. Next spring should be interesting to say the least! Where does this end as it surely has to! This “new” gov’t just does not get it! Pretty sad to say the least…..

#42 the jaguar on 09.22.21 at 1:07 pm

@ 209 Dharma Bum
Damn! You nailed it. So funny and so true.

#43 RE_Investor on 09.22.21 at 1:13 pm

RE has been great for rental income. All of my tenants are super nice now that they know if they move, their rent will be 40% higher elsewhere. I think my only option will be to build secondary suites when a tenant moves.

#44 Samhita on 09.22.21 at 1:15 pm

I was expecting Mr. T to ban blind bidding and bring in transparency. Is this now?

Ottawa has no jurisdiction over real estate practices. They are provincially regulated. – Garth

#45 Samhita on 09.22.21 at 1:16 pm

I was expecting Mr. T to ban blind bidding and bring in transparency. Is this tossed now?

#46 willworkforpickles on 09.22.21 at 1:20 pm

Those going overboard deep in debt today…government, individuals, etc – all have their heads buried in the sand oblivious to the nightmarish debt consequences coming their way.
Will individuals, who will eventually be drowning in debt be able to seek and find government support then.
Will CMHC mortgage insurance go the distance and not have to declare bankruptcy when the levee breaks.

What’s going on in the rest of the world matters more than ever now as it comes down to the shakeout that will be coming to North America.

#47 Brett in Calgary on 09.22.21 at 1:29 pm

My wife and I know it. 42 and 45, have nursed a portfolio to nice heights, but are still 0-time home owners. Sure glad we get to subsidize some under-40’s first home! This crash (whenever it happens) is going to be monstrous.

#48 Nonplused on 09.22.21 at 1:34 pm

Well, when you vote for more of the same, you should expect more of the same.

As I mentioned yesterday, assuming this new mandate is 18 months long, Trudeau is headed to have been in charge for 90 months straight of the most egregious housing bubble the world has ever seen. I mean sure it was a notable bubble before hand, but it’s only gone exponential with Trudeau at the helm. For 72 going on 90 months.

I am sorry but I am going to have to capitulate and join the “housing only goes up” crowd. Not because of natural forces, but because all the forces of government consistently come down on the side of making it possible for buyers to pay more, not on the side of enforcing any sort of discipline on sellers in the market.

The fact of the matter is giving people money to buy things does not make them cheaper. What we need to do is allow builders the room to construct more units. But that isn’t going to happen because politicians all up and down the line understand the importance of how prices are set on the margin. A small oversupply of new houses could dramatically affect the whole market. Therefore undersupply it is. Sort of like how a little inflation is better than any microscopic amount of deflation.

—————————————

If all the buyer incentives weren’t enough to totally guarantee the fate of housing over the next years, get ready for some real shockers as the “green” agenda roles out. A “net zero” house, assuming such a thing can be built in a climate such as Canada, is not going to be cheap. Expect building costs per sqft to double even if lumber stabilizes. Triple pane windows are not cheap. Neither is R40 because the walls have to be considerably thicker to hold it. And some of the goals just can’t be done but that doesn’t mean they can’t throw money on it. Solar on every new roof? Why not they do it in California. Let’s put some solar hot water up there too while we are at it, but put some antifreeze in there because 5 months of the year it will be frozen.

Anyway if you think new houses are expensive now, just wait. Get your hands on the existing housing stock now before it is illegal to buy something that does not have solar panels and geothermal heating (which isn’t really geothermal heating). And because solar panels don’t last all that long, I suppose there will be laws mandating they be replaced periodically as well. Think a brand new Sub Zero fridge every 15 years in terms of cost. Just for the panels. Let’s not forget the “geothermal heating”, which is really just an air-conditioner run backwards, so expect to replace that a lot too.

—————————————–

Years ago I bought a Dodge Cummins because in that year Dodge was still exempt from the DEF bullcrap having made other pollution improvements years earlier. Of course Dodges need DEF now too, but not mine. I just fill and go. There is a lesson about what may happen to housing in there as the “green” stuff comes down the pipe. Older houses that can be maintained at reasonable costs are not going to grow less popular as everyone tries to deal with all the green mandates. And they really are going to stop making more of them. Get yourself a 90’s house now.

#49 Summertime on 09.22.21 at 1:35 pm

No matter how much you artificially pump the crazy housing market. This is a broken country, deeply in debt, with no standard of living whatsoever.

The best thing one can do is depart and take out all his/her/… capital out.

I live in a South European country on 20 % of my net income with 5 properties, little, taxes, beautiful weather, worry free. Greece is just short travel away, so is Italy.

I will never ever contemplate returning to the sh$thole that big Canadian cities are,

The best decision ever was collapsing all my Canadian based investment and taking ALL of my money out.

The fancy socks guy can kiss my .. you know what.

Good luck in surviving wat lies ahead of you.

Disclaimer: I firmly believe that countries like Romania, Check Republic are far ahead of Canada in terms of real standard of living/purchasing power.

Far far ahead and that distance is only increasing.

#50 45north on 09.22.21 at 1:40 pm

As you know, the words “housing crisis” rolled off the lips of Trudeau, O’Toole and Singh at most campaign stops.

Housing is unaffordable because it costs too much. And as you say the Liberals plan to put in place measures that will raise the price. The measures are discriminatory and will reduce the income available to the Treasury.

The obvious solution is to put in place measures that will reduce the price. The federal government has huge influence over the housing market – interest rates, CMHC regulations and buying mortgage-backed bonds from the banks. The message from China Evergrande is you have to reduce risk and leverage.

#51 G on 09.22.21 at 1:44 pm

Anyone else been taking note of what has been happening in Australia, especially the last 4 days?

#52 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 1:45 pm

#2 Devil Anse on 09.22.21 at 10:43 am
When we combine all these measures like First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, Shared-Equity Mortgage etc. with policies like taxing REITs & banks and increasing the capital gain exemption on financial assets, it is clear that those who eschew debt, live within their means and save and invest for the future are about to get screwed.
____

Depends on how you handle it. Our place was 1.37X income and is paid for. 100% of our investments are in tax shelters. I keep my tax remittances very low thru a number of strategies.

On the flip side, low rates and stimulus cash have grown our stash steadily, and our house “value” has ballooned 500% since purchase thanks to buyer empowerment via government and BoC. Looking forward it’s totally possible for us to end up with a 7 figure tax advantaged retirement account right alongside 1000% RE “appreciation”.

That beats the hell out of 8K mortgage payments and retiring on CPP/OAS IMHO.

#53 Summertime on 09.22.21 at 1:46 pm

#33 Nat on 09.22.21 at 12:26 pm
Why am I still shocked and sickened by the governments idiotic policies on housing. Every person with half a brain knows this won’t help housing, who is in the drivers seat???? This is terrifying

The house prices increase in the last decade or 2 in GTA is equivalent to hyperinflation. I care not what the true definition of hyperinflation is.

Now the last nail in the coffin of this economy is the explosion of inflation of necessities.

If you are staying in this economic graveyard, you are the idiot.

#54 45north on 09.22.21 at 1:50 pm

Covid testing in the US

the trend has finally become apparent. Cases of Covid are declining. The chart doesn’t tell you why but there are two reasons – natural immunity and vaccinations. Voting for Donald Trump is not a reason.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

#55 Summertime on 09.22.21 at 1:56 pm

#52 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 1:45 pm

Think of what you can achieve by liquidating all of your Canadian based assets and moving to Spain/Italy.

They will come for you money in one way or another.’

You have won one in a lifetime real estate lottery. Cash that ticket, please and move on/out.

#56 Palpha on 09.22.21 at 1:56 pm

I’m really loosing faith in Canada. Serious question. How do I move my balanced and diversified portfolio out of Canada. Most of my money is in a professional corporation. I am a dual citizen ( EEC and Canada) and close to retiring?

#57 Summertime on 09.22.21 at 2:03 pm

There are 2 mentions of inflation in today’s posts so far/one of them mine.

It truly shows how stupid and clueless average dumpcopf Canadians are, as it relates to real inflation.

A real shame. This used to be a nation of thinkers.

#58 Young Families Screwed Over Again on 09.22.21 at 2:04 pm

Yet another example of how young families are screwed over again. Stagnant wages, criminally high child care costs, housing costs off the rails, and an aging demographic that wants more and more and more, yet controls all the wealth.

I don’t have the option to leave the country, and nor should I have to in order to raise a family at a decent standard of living. Our country is in a massive crisis, a generation stands to be left behind, and this profound, cruel joke of an election demonstrated that we are in desperate need of both thinking leaders and an electorate less likely to be brainwashed by ideology instead of thinking about economic productivity that improves our standard of living.

#59 Summertime on 09.22.21 at 2:08 pm

#56 Palpha on 09.22.21 at 1:56 pm

I:

1. Kept some RRSPs and collapsed it gradually in 5 years as you are getting taxed on tax dividends on US corps after that. 25 % taxes today that could be 40% tomorrow.

2. Liquidated all my TFSAs and bought EU based properties/relatively cheap.

3. Left nothing for the fancy socks guy to steal.

Remember: you can only save you money /capital if it is out of reach from the hands of the thieves.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 2:08 pm

#18 Don Guillermo on 09.22.21 at 11:37 am
Calgary’s newly elected Liberal MP George Chahal should fit in well with team Trudeau as he’s already showing he shares their ethics. Sources say he could be eyed to play a “powerful” role in the Federal government going forward. Oh, Canada.

https://calgarysun.com/news/election-2021/liberal-calgary-mp-allegedly-caught-on-camera-nicking-opponents-flyer
————————
Haha,
He’s just doing his job to get elected.
At least no one got shot.
How many Mexican candidates got shot during last election?

#61 My Body My Choice on 09.22.21 at 2:10 pm

DELETED

#62 Shawn Allen on 09.22.21 at 2:13 pm

Why more houses are needed?

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am claimed and asked:

Just checking:
Canada’s death rate is about 300k a year.
Immigration is supposed to be around 300 k.
Why do we need all that new housing?

********************************
Assuming you are right that deaths are about equal to immigration the obvious answer would be that population is increasing due to births and that leads to a a need for more houses eventually.

Another reason is demographics. We are aging and young people are moving out of their parents’ homes.

Basically fewer people per household therefore need more housing at the same population.

Similarly, both divorces and a lower tendency to marry (or otherwise pair up) mean more singles and therefore more housing units for the same population.

Another reason I suppose is Air B&B.

Yet another reason is affluence. A richer population is more likely to have more families that own a vacation home as a second home.

So, lot’s of reasons. But obviously there is demand.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 2:15 pm

#32 Dolce
A few more paragraphs, and you have a book.
You seem to know all the numbers.
Maybe you can tell me what the 610 mill was spent on.
I’m an accountant and I just gotta know.
Thanking you in advance.

#64 Sam on 09.22.21 at 2:25 pm

We are all in a bus called the asylum.

#33 Nat
> who is in the drivers seat????

The inmates.

#65 Don Guillermo on 09.22.21 at 2:27 pm

#59 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 2:08 pm
#18 Don Guillermo on 09.22.21 at 11:37 am
Calgary’s newly elected Liberal MP George Chahal should fit in well with team Trudeau as he’s already showing he shares their ethics. Sources say he could be eyed to play a “powerful” role in the Federal government going forward. Oh, Canada.

https://calgarysun.com/news/election-2021/liberal-calgary-mp-allegedly-caught-on-camera-nicking-opponents-flyer
————————
Haha,
He’s just doing his job to get elected.
At least no one got shot.
How many Mexican candidates got shot during last election?
*************************************
Oh wait, look over there at the pretty bird! Typical Lefty distraction. As long as Canada is not as corrupt as Mexico? China? Russia? or wherever we’re OK.

#66 S.Bby on 09.22.21 at 2:28 pm

We’ve been saying for over a decade now that housing is at risk but it keeps rising. If you don’t own a house now forget it in the future. It’s clear that the government will do whatever it takes to keep this bubble inflated. Renting your principal residence is a losing proposition. The Liberals will be in office for at least another 4 years so I am throwing in the towel at this point and will be looking to buy ASAP. Get in before next spring because it will be crazy then.

Buy if you need a house and can afford one without jeopardizing your family’s finances. FOMO is the worst possible reason. – Garth

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 2:29 pm

After every election, people here are moping and “threatening” to move their money somewhere else.
Can I suggest Florida or Texas.
Their nutwing politicians will just fit your bill.
Or you can buy property on the Arizona ocean, right Goofy.
Btw, for every one of you there are millions who can replace you, people who actually wanna live here, and contribute.

#68 Faron on 09.22.21 at 2:29 pm

#11 Woke up this morning… on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am

Will this not make investors reluctant to buy bonds at these low rates going forward? Or at all? Or in certain risky geographies?

Evergrande’s bonds have been rated junk for a long time. Junk bond rates in China are touching highs. This is a totally different animal from bonds issued by sovereign nations like US, Canada and others. The only rate effect I see is if there is any need to liquidate assets to cover losses in China in which case some US treasuries may be dumped potentially pushing rates up.

However, Yields have stubbornly refused to rise lately, so I don’t think that is at play. Bond prices have already “thought” about this until more news lands.

#69 Dogman01 on 09.22.21 at 2:33 pm

Trusted — Not Trusted — Distrusted

A lot of the problems in our society I believe stem from our establishment moving from Trusted to Not Trusted to now Distrusted by a significant portion of our population.

When you hire an Advisor like Garth’s team you need to Trust.
When you watch a BNN guy you would verify and check as it Is “Not Trusted” source. Do your own research.
And as Doug pointed out, your Distrusted shields should often be up; https://www.greaterfool.ca/2021/09/18/wise-guys/

Having a society where our establishment is Distrusted by a significantly large segment of the population creates a great deal of friction and complexity. Once you are Distrusted you hardly ever can go back.

A great follow up from a real Journalist delivering a condemnation of the media big Tech establishment in the USA https://greenwald.substack.com/p/new-proof-emerges-of-the-biden-family
No wonder people in USA will gravitate to conspiracy theories, they have lost trust and have become justifiably Distrustful.

Fortunately I think Canada is in a better position but for many CBC has shifted to bias and Not Trusted. That Nova Scotia shooting\arson spree deserves a good deal of Distrust and scrutiny of our establishment, as did the WE charity. It’s good Canadians would not give the Liberals a majority, that is one crew that has earned Distrusted.

#70 Mick McClean on 09.22.21 at 2:40 pm

Felt like I was 18 trying to get into the Gasworks rather than a vaccinated senior trying to have a coffee and a muffin at the Food Court at Fairview Mall. The printed copy of my vaccination wasn’t good enough for the gruff rent-a-cop, they wanted my drivers licence also. This in a province of 14 million that had less than 500 cases today. I decided to go through a drive-thru instead.

#71 BillyBob on 09.22.21 at 2:43 pm

Time for my weekly prayer of thanksgiving for having made my (modest) fortune outside of Canada, for keeping it in USD, and never repatriating a cent. What has been a sucker’s game for years has crossed the line into farce.

Such a tragedy to observe such a great country so hellbent on economic destruction. Talk about eating your young.

And like all socialist regimes, always couched in the language of good intentions.

Repulsive.

But gotta stay positive. Please do keep buying tons of useless crap online. Our voluminous cargo planes love it and with the shortage of seaborne shipping it’s a license to print money. Shenzhen and Shanghai aren’t that close, y’know! Děkuji.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.21 at 2:46 pm

@#51 Gee
“Anyone else been taking note of what has been happening in Australia, especially the last 4 days?”

++++
Earthquakes?
Submarines?
Shrimps on the barbie?

Could you be a tad more specific?

#73 Jake on 09.22.21 at 2:50 pm

If you can’t beat’em, join’em. I think a lot of people are sick of waiting for lower prices so they just jump into the pool, there is no fear and a growing belief it really is different this time.

#74 S.Bby on 09.22.21 at 2:53 pm

Rents are increasing at an alarming rate so I may as well get a massive mortgage at 1.5% and pay myself back while I have a place to live at the same time. I don’t think I have FOMO but it’s clear to me that this whole thing is being orchestrated by the government and they have deeper pockets than I do and all the time in the world to do it so I may as well stop fighting them. Too bad they discriminate against me because I’m over 40.

#75 A01 on 09.22.21 at 2:55 pm

Ok, so basically all the incentives he’s giving will just drive up prices. So basically he’s increasing the debt burden on new buyers. Why don’t they just say, let’s remove all this artificial stimulus and let the market decide. Probably because he’s going to have another election in 18 months.

#76 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 09.22.21 at 2:57 pm

Regarding FOMO here is where one needs to wonder ,if it takes a 60% correction to get back to 2016 levels in LM, 30-40% rest of BC ,how long does one wait for that correction to happen hoping prices will stagnate at today’s levels ?
Will a smaller correction even make a big difference if
1)you “buy to live in it” knowing that the real inflation we are seeing will show up in the house prices appreciation?
2) everyone who bet or predicted against real estate as a long term investment in Canada for the past 25 years was super-extra-massively wrong
Yes ,I get and agree that RE shouldn’t be your only place to sink money into ,but given the alternative and the state of rental apartments in Canada ( old ,worn out, expensive) can anyone blame people for throwing in the towel and buy now if they can avoid it ? Especially since the latest anti-landlord policies will result in more units being switched from rental to resale ,so a current renter will have 3 options
A) Buy
B) rent a worse place for same or more $$
C) be homeless

And if anyone believes that any Canadian government will build 1 mil plus housing units in 3 years ,well I have a very cheap land to sell you in Bunnyville, BC .call 1-800- Sucker

#77 Shawn Allen on 09.22.21 at 3:02 pm

If you can’t beat ’em?

#72 Jake on 09.22.21 at 2:50 pm

If you can’t beat’em, join’em. I think a lot of people are sick of waiting for lower prices so they just jump into the pool, there is no fear and a growing belief it really is different this time.

**********************************

The new (but not voiced) mantra is if you can’t join ’em, beat ’em (Not best ’em but beat ’em as with a stick)

Can’t be rich? Then bash the rich. Don’t have a pension? Ask for pensions to be taken from those who do or at least bash them.

Can’t afford a house? Must be someone you can beat up on to make it better.

#78 Sam on 09.22.21 at 3:03 pm

#46 willworkforpickles on 09.22.21 at 1:20 pm

> oblivious to the nightmarish debt consequences coming their way.

What consequences? If there’s inflation and they’re employed (especially gov workers able to get inflation raises), debtors get a gift.

If there’s a crisis and the gov does some kind of jubilee or citizen bailout (not a bank bailout) debtors get a gift.

It’s only a problem for debtors if there’s
deflation
plus no bailout
plus no way to discharge the debt in bankruptcy.

#79 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 3:04 pm

#48 Nonplused on 09.22.21 at 1:34 pm

Years ago I bought a Dodge Cummins because in that year Dodge was still exempt from the DEF bullcrap having made other pollution improvements years earlier. Of course Dodges need DEF now too, but not mine. I just fill and go.

_________

90’s Dodge Ram 2500’s with the 12V 6BT have zero emissions systems, and zero electronics. They go 1 million + miles every time with good maintenance. Parts are reasonable, and they’re easy to work on. They regularly get over 20 mpg in a 6000 lb full size truck. You can add 100+ hp and 200+ ft-lbs for less than 100.00.

A mid 90’s example with a 12 Valve, NV4500, 4×4, with low mileage and in mint condition is 25K+ here in southern Ontario.

Meanwhile you can barely give away an ’08 F350 with the 6.4 Powerstroke under the hood…

#80 Sam on 09.22.21 at 3:04 pm

> It’s only a problem for debtors if there’s

should have been “there’s only a nightmare …”

#81 millmech on 09.22.21 at 3:14 pm

#47
There will be no crash, they will subsidize housing to keep it going, if housing crashes the country crashes, it is like the banks and is now to big to fail.
I was anti house but I see how far this government is going, to keep manipulating the market to prevent any pullback from “hurting” Canadians.
As soon as housing swoons the immigration floodgates will open and there will be government cash given away so that they can enter the market and keep it propped up.
The liberals will keep getting voted in now because they have guaranteed every homeowner is now a millionaire at least once over and will keep pumping the house price every election cycle.

#82 Flop… on 09.22.21 at 3:16 pm

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.21 at 2:46 pm
@#51 Gee
“Anyone else been taking note of what has been happening in Australia, especially the last 4 days?”

++++
Earthquakes?
Submarines?
Shrimps on the barbie?

Could you be a tad more specific?

////////////////////

Apparently Tasmania had a minor earthquake.

My statue in the town square is largely intact, according to the authorities.

They told me my statue suffered a slight bit of facial damage, so I asked them to send me a photo.

I’m o.k with it, now I smile like Garth Turner…

M47BC

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 3:19 pm

Just seeing some disturbing numbers from the US debt ceiling.
Moody estimates that a US default would cost about 9 million jobs, and the stock market could crash by 30%.
they have been kicking the can down the road for some time, if the piper comes it won’t be pretty.
We must keep in mind, that massive debt is not confined to Canada. And running away is not gonna help you much.

#84 S.Bby on 09.22.21 at 3:26 pm

#72 Jake

Right you are. May as well use the bank’s money at 20 times leverage and walk away later with the profits and have a free place to live in the meantime. Can’t pay? Just go into forbearance and pay later.

#85 TRUDEAU the traitor on 09.22.21 at 3:28 pm

Makes the houses even more expensive, 1.25 mil limit raised now for 20% down up from 1 million.

The poor schmucks that voted him, will die poor.

This country is toast..it’s not even a country,it’s the world largest hotel..

#86 Dolce Vita on 09.22.21 at 3:32 pm

Good to read here I am not the only that has or is contemplating taking money out of Canada and moving it to lower tax and cost of living locales in the EU.

Makes me feel good I’m not the only one with such ideas nor the first to do it.

—————

Evergrande maybe what pushes the Chinese RE market over the edge. $ wise the exposure to US firms does not seem that large, top bond holders from a list of 121 foreign investors:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ppfn90/list_of_who_holds_evergrande_bonds/

Looks like Vanguard will take a hit of $130 million if Evergrande not rescued by Gov PRC. Blackrock in there too. Evergrande expected to go into bankruptcy.

The death knell will be if the contagion spreads in their RE market and to other countries. Hard to see this happen but MSM in the US already calling it PRC’s Lehman Bros.

But, Gov PRC to the rescue, hours ago:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-inches-close-default-deadline-investors-wait-2021-09-21/

Will it stop the contagion?

I ‘dunno but I do know such Gov rescues are short-lived if 2007 is any indication.

#87 Trojan House on 09.22.21 at 3:34 pm

Like TurnerNation says, you think this is about a virus?

Last year, with very little knowledge about the “new” virus circulating around and no vaccine available, they were hailed as heroes. Today, they are being fired from hospitals:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/dozens-windsor-essex-hospital-staff-1.6185369

Like we don’t already have a staff shortage problem. Don’t plan on getting that surgery any time soon.

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 3:35 pm

#61 Shawn Allen on 09.22.21 at 2:13 pm
Why more houses are needed?

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am claimed and asked:

Just checking:
Canada’s death rate is about 300k a year.
Immigration is supposed to be around 300 k.
Why do we need all that new housing?

********************************
Assuming you are right that deaths are about equal to immigration the obvious answer would be that population is increasing due to births and that leads to a a need for more houses eventually.
Another reason is demographics. We are aging and young people are moving out of their parents’ homes.
Basically fewer people per household therefore need more housing at the same population.
Similarly, both divorces and a lower tendency to marry (or otherwise pair up) mean more singles and therefore more housing units for the same population.
Another reason I suppose is Air B&B.
Yet another reason is affluence. A richer population is more likely to have more families that own a vacation home as a second home.
So, lot’s of reasons. But obviously there is demand.
—————————
Good discussion. 
But there are also plenty of people moving away.
My hypothesis is that there is no shortage of housing.
Here is a small case study.
3 houses in my neighborhood sold about 2 months ago.
All of the owners, plus I renter, moved  out shortly after it went on the market.
They are still empty. Sure, long closing, but the old owners must have moved in somewhere, and the new owners must be living somewhere.
So, 3 houses and 1 basement empty.
Somebody is paying 2 mortgages, or has lots of cash.

#89 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 3:35 pm

#55 Summertime on 09.22.21 at 1:56 pm
#52 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 1:45 pm

Think of what you can achieve by liquidating all of your Canadian based assets and moving to Spain/Italy.

They will come for you money in one way or another.’

You have won one in a lifetime real estate lottery. Cash that ticket, please and move on/out.
____

We’ll see what the future brings. I can stay here and be just fine, since I got off and running before Canadians lost their faculties and started voting goofballs like Trudeau into power, so I’m good.

I will say, more and more friends and family are talking of retiring elsewhere, like you say “cashing out”. If most of them leave, especially if our kids bailed for work also – there will be little reason to hang around.

#90 Felix on 09.22.21 at 3:37 pm

Another revealing photo today.

“The opposite” of a useful, intelligent animal is indeed a couch-surfing dogawful canine.

#91 Devil Anse on 09.22.21 at 3:38 pm

52 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 1:45 pm

Depends on how you handle it. Our place was 1.37X income and is paid for. 100% of our investments are in tax shelters. I keep my tax remittances very low thru a number of strategies.

On the flip side, low rates and stimulus cash have grown our stash steadily, and our house “value” has ballooned 500% since purchase thanks to buyer empowerment via government and BoC. Looking forward it’s totally possible for us to end up with a 7 figure tax advantaged retirement account right alongside 1000% RE “appreciation”.

That beats the hell out of 8K mortgage payments and retiring on CPP/OAS IMHO.

————————————————————————————————————————————

Agree, I was lucky to buy a house in 2005 and have maxed my tax shelters and benefitted from an equity heavy portfolio. My problem with the Liberal plan is that it incentivizes the behaviour (8K mortgage payments) you mention. When I graduated University in 1997, I remember the career counsellor telling me that a career as a personal financial manager would be smart, because Canadians were such good savers. Today, I imagine he would tell me to become a real estate agent or mortgage broker.

#92 Billy Buoy on 09.22.21 at 3:45 pm

Just a reminder rates are never going to rise.

Powell says next year…

Where have we heard this one before.

Lucy in the Peanuts comic strip had more credibility.

And remember, even a .075 raise in rates brings everything crashing down.

#93 Linda on 09.22.21 at 3:47 pm

A pup & his perch:)

I am just shaking my head at the government ‘plan’ to ‘put home ownership within reach’. As amply outlined in todays blog, the measures to be enacted will not do anything to decrease home prices. Just the opposite, even as it encourages the young to take on yet more debt. All apparently now being guaranteed by ‘the taxpayer’ in one form or another. Including it appears allowing anyone who can’t make their mortgage payments due to ‘financial reversal’. I shudder to think what that might encompass. I spent too much on my vacation abroad (because I deserve it, don’t you know) so can’t make the mortgage payment this month. Financial reversal! I can’t be punished or punted from my digs if I miss a payment due to my own actions! Yahoo there cowboys, lets belly up to the bar for more of that!

The late Robert A. Heinlein wrote about ‘the Crazy Years’. I’d say we are well into them when it comes to RE.

#94 Mark on 09.22.21 at 3:47 pm

I have a serious question. Does he realize this will make things worse and just doesn’t care, or is he actually retarded and thinks these are good steps for fixing the housing market? And no, I don’t use that word lightly.

#95 pPrasseur on 09.22.21 at 3:51 pm

Access to mortgage credit is socialized in Canada (among so many other things), this is the base of this economy and this will not change not matter who’s in government, at the very least until the crisis which may collapse the whole thing.

No Canadian government will kill this massive bubble consciously.

What will kill it is loss of investors confidence in this country which will cause stagflation, low CAD and higher interest rates.

All bubbles pop, this massive bubble is no exception and when it does it will be epic.

No idea when tough, could be a while who knows, but I’m taking no chances and own very little Canadian assets. Served me very well so far, no doubt more to come…

#96 ogdoad on 09.22.21 at 4:10 pm

Man, Garth. How do I invest in your blog? Why visit any of the online Canadian news pundits when an acceptable (and reliable?) summary of current political events occurs here?

Og

#97 Phylis on 09.22.21 at 4:20 pm

#35 Dolce Vita on 09.22.21 at 12:29 pm
I see how you would quickly adapt and change investments, thks for the firm example. I was kinda also alluding to companies themselves resorting to dolling out dividends to investors, just as income trusts, (remember those?) because, well, let’s say they became too tax efficient and the elf had to step on the bandwagon. The answer seems to be, the tax break is there to encourage certain behaviours, yes it can be taken away, then the behaviours that it was intended to affect will not longer be in effect. (Hope i got that right, i frequently dyslexify things)

#98 Nonplused on 09.22.21 at 4:26 pm

#78 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 3:04 pm
#48 Nonplused on 09.22.21 at 1:34 pm

Years ago I bought a Dodge Cummins because in that year Dodge was still exempt from the DEF bullcrap having made other pollution improvements years earlier. Of course Dodges need DEF now too, but not mine. I just fill and go.

_________

90’s Dodge Ram 2500’s with the 12V 6BT have zero emissions systems, and zero electronics. They go 1 million + miles every time with good maintenance. Parts are reasonable, and they’re easy to work on. They regularly get over 20 mpg in a 6000 lb full size truck. You can add 100+ hp and 200+ ft-lbs for less than 100.00.

A mid 90’s example with a 12 Valve, NV4500, 4×4, with low mileage and in mint condition is 25K+ here in southern Ontario.

Meanwhile you can barely give away an ’08 F350 with the 6.4 Powerstroke under the hood…

———————————

Well I was more trying to allude to the fact the “green” whatever looks to only make housing that much more unaffordable, using the technology creep we’ve seen in autos as an example.

I am a fan of the Cummins engine though. I bought the engine, the truck just came with it. I have the high output which means Aisin transmission so even better.

I had a Ford 350 with the International Harvester Power Stroke. Never again. All I needed was the injectors changed. I had to take out a second mortgage. I mean, it ran good, but maintenance was a nightmare. The V8 is not the right configuration for a diesel. Nothing fits. And they don’t rev high anyway, so there is nothing to be gained putting more pistons in there for the same displacement. Just more things to break.

#99 Faron on 09.22.21 at 4:31 pm

#70 BillyBob on 09.22.21 at 2:43 pm

Stay positive! Your gonna need it!

You (and a lot of doomsday, post-election blog dogs) have been crapping on Canada a lot lately, so lets make some comparisons between the Czech Republic and Canada, shall we? For fun? Positivities sake?

Per Capita GDP CZ: $23.5k US
Canada?: $46.2k US

Human rights and freedoms? Cato index CZ: 8.29 Canada? 8.64 (one of the highest globally)

Women’s opportunity index? CZ: 70.8 (one of the worst in the EU BTW)
Canada? 83.2

COVID? CZ deaths per 100k – 2800+ (8th worst globally!)
Canada: 721 (86th worst globally)

Immigration per 1000 (i.e. does the world want to live there) CZ: 1.1
Canada: 7.1

Access to health care: well, read it. CZ much worse than Canada: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5528124/Hah!

Hey, at least you have some nice western architecture to go with your park drunks. Kudos Kaptain Kargo!

#100 Pbrasseur on 09.22.21 at 4:46 pm

@Faron #98

It’s not about where the puck is but where it’s going to be.

Canada lives indeed very well but way beyond the means provided by its productivity, evidence is the mountain of debt cumulated by households and governments, it’s not hard to see the unbalance and inevitable correction, just a question of how and when.

#101 40+ 0 Time Homebuyer on 09.22.21 at 4:47 pm

I can’t fathom the point of Trudeau’s <40 year old home buyer plan. I grew up in Vancouver and affording anything has only now been possible…I'm 41 and my wife is 40. So because we fall on the wrong side of some arbitrary number during an election year, we lose out on a benefit? Why not make it accessible to ALL first time home buyers if you're going to do it at all?

#102 willworkforpickles on 09.22.21 at 4:55 pm

#77 Sam
You are on a different page with your response than of the debt related consequences i was and always have been referring to here.

#103 april on 09.22.21 at 4:59 pm

#49 – Canadian RE, except for Alberta, is in a correction but the realtors being desperate for commission will continue to lie to the public, so far anyway, telling us RE is increasing.
The new Liberal policies will not prevent the ongoing correction but only encourage the gullible to believe realtors spin and take on even more debt. Only the wealthy can afford the risk.
For anyone interested listen to Ross Kay at Howestreet.com – Sept21.

#104 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.22.21 at 5:07 pm

CLOUD-CUCKOO LAND!
Here I sit in my living room stroking my white cat. All the while thinking, “Oh what a wonderful world it has been for the overindebted. It reminds me of a quote by T.H.Huxley, “A man’s worst difficulties begin when he is able to do as he likes,” For 12 long years, a great many people have done just that. They have lived the good life that past generations took years of hard work and savings to accomplish. How is this possible,? Answer, these good time Charlies have been aided and abetted every step of the way by the generosity of the central bankers zero interest insanity. To date, the overextended are doing exactly as they please with absolutely no fear of any financial consequences. The reality is they are projecting a time of financial abundance that masks the onset of a fast approaching structural decline. They are living in cloud- cuckoo land, a dysfunctional halfway house waiting for the next crisis to finally engulf them. Repeat, “Beware The Ides Of November at your peril.” I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#105 Vice Versa on 09.22.21 at 5:07 pm

Communism fell because they didn’t have enough food and access to goods. Every communist citizen wanted goods from the “west”. Eventually, they got capitalism.

Today entire capitalist world relies on a communist nation to make their goods. Thus controls supply for all, thus holds leverage over capitalism on our consumer economies.

Interesting. Wonder if that lever could ever be pulled?

#106 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm

Goodbye Canada. I will be taking my money to a different country. Its a shame what this place has become, my grandfather didn’t move here for this. Oh well, another lifetime.

#107 Diharv on 09.22.21 at 5:09 pm

The fact the federal government meddles so much in the housing market where it does not belong is basically an admission that this is the only economy that matters to them anymore in Canada. So it is in their interest to keep the gasbag ever inflating. Any idiot, even the one in the PM chair knows that their”measures” will do nothing to increase affordability. Its pathetic, will lead to nowhere good and the country will suffer for it.

#108 Leftover on 09.22.21 at 5:18 pm

Buckle up…

“The Federal Reserve said it could soon slow its large-scale purchases of government-backed debt and indicated it might raise interest rates in 2022.”

New York Times, September 22

#109 Baffled on 09.22.21 at 5:21 pm

You have to wonder where we are we every leader had some version of these bad proposals for housing. Either they don’t know or don’t care that it will make things worse. Whichever the answer is, the real question is why isn’t it disqualifying for these lofty positions? Why do we keep accepting it? This rent to own thing, what exactly are they renting out? The housing doesn’t exist. Municipalities are in the way of building more in many cases and for good reason in a lot of cases. The infrastructure doesn’t exist and is costly and in some places almost impossible to provide.

#110 Midnights on 09.22.21 at 5:26 pm

Great interview with Peterson.
Justin Trudeau and the Election that Should Have Never Been | Rex Murphy | JBP Podcast S4: E45 – YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3mZn5nimaU

#111 JP on 09.22.21 at 5:27 pm

One of the reasons I come here to read this blog (but rarely the comments), is that Garth often provides good information much earlier than the MSM.

Case in point is the housing affordability crisis, which Garth has been warning about for a very long time now. Apparently it is becoming worldwide issue.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/the-global-housing-market-is-broken-and-its-dividing-entire-countries/wcm/15899510-84f0-4b43-b2fa-285040371d6a/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

#112 PastThePeak on 09.22.21 at 5:34 pm

#19 Bat Dance on 09.22.21 at 11:54 am
STOP THE PRESS!

Holy Tintinnabulation!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wuhan-scientists-sought-to-infect-bats-with-coronavirus-18-months-before-first-case-documents-show

>>>>
Documents show that just 18 months before the first COVID-19 cases appeared, researchers submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, located about 2,000 km southwest of Wuhan.
….
+++++++++++++++++++++

Anyone who thinks that clandestine research into making bat coronaviruses more virulent and easier to infect humans, that takes place in the city of Wuhan, perhaps a year or two ahead of the pandemic…

…is in anyway possibly connected to SARS-Cov2, which was first reported in Wuhan, is more infectious in humans than in bats, where the CCP actively denied any investigation or access…

…is simply a wild right-wing conspiracy theorist that is anti- “The Science (TM)”…

#113 Shawn Allen on 09.22.21 at 5:59 pm

Will Interest Rates Rise?

#91 Billy Buoy on 09.22.21 at 3:45 pm said:

Just a reminder rates are never going to rise.

Powell says next year…

Where have we heard this one before.

Lucy in the Peanuts comic strip had more credibility.

And remember, even a .075 raise in rates brings everything crashing down.

****************************************

If you say so. Yet I see this headline on Yahoo Finance:

“Fed signals possibility of 6 to 7 rate hikes through 2024 as taper talks advance”

What goes down must go up? (Eventually?) How long can they keep pressing on a strong spring that wants to go up as soon as they stop pressing?

#114 Yukon Elvis on 09.22.21 at 5:59 pm

#4 opee on 09.22.21 at 10:55 am
Strategies, oh strategies, what to do? The C’s could look at T2, how did he do it?
+++++++++++++++++++++++
How he did it : Promise people free stuff and tell them heroically and nobly that they are victims of systemic racism, gender inequality, climate change, income inequality, assault weapons, genocide, and any other “Nebulous Nonsense” that you can think of and that you will heroically tax the dirty rotten stinkin’ bastard rich people and businesses and banks and make them pay their fair share to give you the free stuff. 65% of people will vote for the free stuff and nobility of it all . That’s how he did it and will continue to do it and 65% of us will vote for free stuff until we become the bug on the windshield of debt and he will walk away into the sunset with his trust fund and he and his will have nary a worry while the rest of us scratch and claw to make ends meet. A winning formula, just look at past elections.

#115 Faron on 09.22.21 at 6:02 pm

#99 Pbrasseur on 09.22.21 at 4:46 pm

@Faron #98

just a question of how and when.

Welp, that’s a whattaboutism. We are talking about current conditions. i.e. what is currently known and measurable.

Aside from that, your argument is akin to the market doom-sayers who continually proclaim, “It’s all gonna crash!” And, you are right. One day the market will crash. But, until then, reap the benefits.

Sure, Canada might melt down one day in the future. Could be a year from now, could be 50 years form now, could be 100. Until then, one would be advised to live in a place of opportunity and, by the above metrics, that would be Canada (unless you want cheaper beer and even more rampant alcoholism than we have). It’s also safe to say that if Canada melts, the Czech Republic will also be melting and when that happens, the relative wealth of Canada (and sheer space) will make it a much, much better place to be than an eastern European nation with Putin breathing down its neck.

Another way to look at it is that Canadians hold a lot of debt because it’s a stable, trustworthy place and that makes it very cheap to hold said debt. Here’s another comparison that encapsulates the above:

CZ 2yr: 1.818% Canadian 2yr: 0.44%
CZ 10yr: 1.97% Canadian 2yr: 1.22%
CZ 20yr: 2.155% Canadian 30yr: 1.77% (there is no CDN 20yr)

This tells you that the entire planet’s people (minus two people: you and BillyBob) think that Canada is a far safer place than the Czech Republic to park its money. Maybe because it’s a better developed nation and is able to treat its citizens better?

Cheers.

#116 Shawn Allen on 09.22.21 at 6:03 pm

Lunenburg to Solve housing shortage

Move over Garth. I have no opinion on this, just came across it randomly.

Six Story Buildings to be allowed in parts of Lunenburg.(You mean there is more than one part?).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/lunenburg-planning-housing-shortage-nova-scotia-1.6185485?cmp=rss

#117 A Different Pond on 09.22.21 at 6:03 pm

I think everyone is overestimating the Liberal housing platform. Let’s face it, the platform was a classic suck and blow piece with supply side and demand side measures. It mirrored part of the Conservative platform, including banning foreign buyers and a special flipping tax on top of the 1 million new homes in 2 years.

The shared equity mortgage was a flop – little uptake. Raising the CMCH ceiling and reducing the insurance costs by a measly 25% will not drive the market. Incomes have not increased enough to catch up to these changes. Allowing for secondary suites means nothing in those jurisdictions where secondary suites are not allowed. And there are supply constraints for professionals and material shortages to do all those renos. A lot of people will be waiting 6 months to a year to see any renovations, and at a cost a lot higher than what was ‘estimated.’

What is clear is that the hoped for September rise in listings will not materialize – not because of seller fear as their greed outstrips their fear – but because everyone will hunker down again for the 4th wave. And then the Spring demand will be absolutely insane because of the predictable pend up demand again.

And quite frankly, since it was the GTA that elected T2, they get what they deserve – they went in eyes wide open so there there is no sympathy for parabolic increases there. Unfortunately, this insanity has also infected every part of the country.

If you have been a prudent and patient financial investor in B&D, you have been left in the dust because of the last 1.5 year increases. Regardless of how the Spring market goes, it’s time for Canadians that are fiscally conservative and mature to send those portfolios overseas along with themselves. The pendulum has swing permanently – too many Canadians like government largess and prefer comfort over principles. That will never change so time to find a different pond to play in….

#118 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 6:05 pm

#97 Nonplused on 09.22.21 at 4:26 pm
#78 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 3:04 pm

90’s Dodge Ram 2500’s with the 12V 6BT have zero emissions systems, and zero electronics. They go 1 million + miles every time with good maintenance. Parts are reasonable, and they’re easy to work on. They regularly get over 20 mpg in a 6000 lb full size truck. You can add 100+ hp and 200+ ft-lbs for less than 100.00.

A mid 90’s example with a 12 Valve, NV4500, 4×4, with low mileage and in mint condition is 25K+ here in southern Ontario.

Meanwhile you can barely give away an ’08 F350 with the 6.4 Powerstroke under the hood…

———————————

Well I was more trying to allude to the fact the “green” whatever looks to only make housing that much more unaffordable, using the technology creep we’ve seen in autos as an example.

I am a fan of the Cummins engine though. I bought the engine, the truck just came with it. I have the high output which means Aisin transmission so even better.

I had a Ford 350 with the International Harvester Power Stroke. Never again. All I needed was the injectors changed. I had to take out a second mortgage. I mean, it ran good, but maintenance was a nightmare. The V8 is not the right configuration for a diesel. Nothing fits. And they don’t rev high anyway, so there is nothing to be gained putting more pistons in there for the same displacement. Just more things to break.
————

Yes I was agreeing with you. The pre-emissions/electronic diesels command a huge premium these days because the new green stuff costs a mint to buy, run, and repair. Plus they get way worse mileage to boot, and they need def and dpf’s too.

IH made a good 6.9 and 7.3 idi, and the 7.3 power stroke was good too, but things went down starting with the 6.0’s with the 6.4’s being one of the worst boat anchors ever built.

I’m trying to buy an old diesel right now, and it’s a $hit show – worse than Canadian RE…

#119 wallflower on 09.22.21 at 6:11 pm

It’s hard to know what the worst voter turnout in Canadians history means, however.
+++++
I did my empirical thesis on incumbent governments always being returned when $$$$ good for the voter. It is an extremely high correlation. This was a bought vote. (Remember CERB?)
The low turnout also correlates with $$$$ satisfaction.

#120 BillyBob on 09.22.21 at 6:13 pm

#98 Faron on 09.22.21 at 4:31 pm
#70 BillyBob on 09.22.21 at 2:43 pm

Stay positive! Your gonna need it!

You (and a lot of doomsday, post-election blog dogs) have been crapping on Canada a lot lately, so lets make some comparisons between the Czech Republic and Canada, shall we? For fun? Positivities sake?

==================================================

My goodness. You got me! I will promptly discard my lived experience and replace it with your Google-stats lol.

I mean seriously, have you actually ever lived anywhere outside of the US or US-lite?

From your weird little rant, it’s obvious….not. I started to write a point-by-point debunk of your ignorant nonsense but to be honest you’re just not worth it. You’re free to believe whatever you want, just like anti-vaxxers and climate deniers. Cause, y’know, /internet.

And I’m not crapping on Canada, I’m lamenting the downward spiral. You obviously think it’s great, so enjoy hahah! But your weak attempt at offense-as-defense is a transparent fail: you HAVE to like Canada to justify throwing your lot in with the socialist paradise. Just keep doubling down on that and more importantly, making those mortgage payments, comrade!

Maybe you’re still bitter that Kaptain Kargo is more highly valued by society than Klimatologist Kook? My current gig is all about adaptation – we can’t ALL coast in cosseted government jobs – but the recruitment sites from pax-land are starting to pile up. No pandemic last forever.

As such I don’t think I’m the one who needs the exhortation to stay positive. The Jet A-1, not to mention the tax-advantaged cash, will be flowing faster than ever before a year from now. Woo-hoo!

You on the other hand will still be, well, you. Can’t see any way that’s a win.

#121 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 09.22.21 at 6:15 pm

#100 40+ 0 Time Homebuyer on 09.22.21 at 4:47 pm
Why not make it accessible to ALL first time home buyers if you’re going to do it at all?

*********************************

Trudeau said, “A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian.”

Well in the same vein, a FIRST TIME home buyer is a FIRST TIME home buyer is a FIRST TIME home buyer.

Everyone needs a place to live so limiting the new FTHSA to under-40s without valid reason is overt age discrimination. There can be many reasons why an over-40 hasn’t been able to purchase a home (besides the obvious current costs). The recessions in the 80’s, 90’s and mid-2000s hammered a lot of Canadians with unemployment and financial losses. Personal events like divorce and personal or family long-term illness eat up finances. Older folks may saved only to see the savings disappear due to the above. Why does age make them ineligible for support to buy their FIRST house?

Pure pandering to the gullible young masses by the PM for political gain.

#122 KLNR on 09.22.21 at 6:38 pm

@#105 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm
Goodbye Canada. I will be taking my money to a different country. Its a shame what this place has become, my grandfather didn’t move here for this. Oh well, another lifetime.

good for your.
Canada is better off with you turncoats.

#123 Quintilian on 09.22.21 at 6:59 pm

Noticed some of my fellow housing bears are showing signs of capitulation.

Some carefully positioned articles and postings by the RE pumpers is starting to eat away the bears resolve.

An early harbinger of a crash.

#124 Capt. Serious on 09.22.21 at 7:05 pm

If prices go parabolic and it turns out I can get a stupid amount for my small bungalow in a not so exciting town, I’m in. Please fund my early retirement Mills.
In related news if the Fed is serious about raising rates 6-7 through 2024 our rates will also go up and there will be so much crying.

#125 jim tow on 09.22.21 at 7:13 pm

Xi Jinping is deliberately deflating the property bubble, deemed an economic cancer that is leading to dangerous inequality and is robbing resources away from China’s hi-tech ambitions.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/22/evergrande-marks-end-chinas-economic-miracle/

Xi Jinping is spot on here… too bad the shortsighted Trudeau and the Bank of Canada are doing the opposite.

#126 Do we have all the facts on 09.22.21 at 7:15 pm

One obvious way to increase the supply of housing would be to increase the accommodation constructed for senior citizens including citizens in need of extended care. The number of households in Canada headed by a senior citizen is projected to double to more than 3,000,000 households over the next twenty years.

Even with the addition of 400,000 new arrivals each year the net rate of new family formations in Canada peaked at 200,000 this year and will decline by an average of 2,500 households per year through 2041.

Encouraging the construction of an additional 100,000 well designed and affordable extended care beds complete with funding for additional health care workers would have an immediate impact of the supply side of the current housing market.

Why has the Federal government been so reluctant to offer additional funding to provincial governments to address the chronic shortage of affordable beds in long term care facilities.

As I have mentioned several times in the past nearly 70% of all deaths attributed to the Covid 19 virus involved a long term care facility. Improving both the quantity and quality of long term care across Canada is long overdue.

Leaving the Provinces to address this important issue alone seems somewhat hypocritical.

#127 Damifino on 09.22.21 at 7:17 pm

#120 Gotta Get Out of Calgary

Trudeau said, “A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian.”
——————————

Did you think he meant it?

#128 PBrasseur on 09.22.21 at 7:17 pm

@Faron #14

Comparing Canada with an ex Soviet block member: CZ
Are you that simple?

Check out Zimbabwe if you want to feel better ;)

#129 Steven Rowlandson on 09.22.21 at 7:18 pm

“Was the election an unwanted summer distraction? Do people just not believe the promises anymore?”

Yes it was a distraction and the actions of government since the 1960s have nullified its credibility perhaps permanently.

#130 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 7:20 pm

#93 Mark on 09.22.21 at 3:47 pm
I have a serious question. Does he realize this will make things worse and just doesn’t care, or is he actually retarded and thinks these are good steps for fixing the housing market? And no, I don’t use that word lightly.
————

Nobody is that stupid, not even Trudeau. The answer is that’s all he can do. Is that ironic? A paradox?

Therein lies the rub. Making it worse is the only option at this point, other than doing nothing. Doing nothing gets zero votes, so it’s not an option either. Fixing it requires lowering prices huge – definitely not an option. It’s too far gone now for a fix, too much skin in the game on all fronts. Trudeau should have been on this 6 years ago. Too much damage must be done for anyone to willingly cause it to happen. We all understand this is the truth. We all ride the tiger now.

So then, short of divine intervention; it will get worse until it blows under enormous pressure, and no one will be to blame.

#131 Lorne on 09.22.21 at 7:26 pm

Why is it that almost everybody seems to think that the “value” of their house should ALWAYS go up, but other investments such as a balanced portfolio as suggested by Garth, always has dips along the way? Why should government try to ensure housing does not have these dips?? Lots of ways to do this….little incentive to do the right thing and bring prices down so new buyers can afford them…instead of giving them more money to spend on even higher priced houses and putting them in debt for much longer….makes no sense!!

#132 Faron on 09.22.21 at 7:40 pm

#70 BillyBob on 09.22.21 at 2:43 pm

“…Talk about eating your young…”

Well, it’s good to know that in your neck of the woods saying a place is eating its young isn’t crapping on it. I always thought cannibalism was frowned upon, but I’m just a yokel.

Wake me up when your expertise is of enough interest to the general public that we hear from you. Of course, that will mean you have either crashed your plane into a river or are on strike…

In the mean time, maybe we should make a friendly wager about who’s seat at our respective workplaces becomes occupied by a Made in China blender — sounds like space is at a premium in those cargo jets amirite? My guess is that automation will make the pilot’s cabin in one of your planes pretty darn irrelevant in the not so distant future.

Me? I think someone who is creative and can put two and five together to make 32 won’t have to worry about being automated out of any job in the next few decades. Of course, you’ll probably be retired by then old man.

#133 Craig on 09.22.21 at 7:48 pm

Does anyone with a functioning brain and some critical thought still believe low to lower interest rates for years, decades is still a good idea. We all know that all this speculation, too high prices, debt beyond belief real estate in Canada is a doomed formula which will end someday.

The worse thing done to the western economies is what the central banks have done with almost 11 years now of below 4% mortgage rates. This is a bunch of BS and the policies of giving more and more money from governments to help fund first time home buyers. It is disgusting and makes me want to throw up. Real estate and debt will be the fall of Canada, US, UK, Australia and most of the high prices in the world.

#134 Ken R on 09.22.21 at 7:49 pm

The future belongs to those that see it coming. Prepare accordingly. Those with nothing outnumber those with something. Everyone gets one vote. It’s obvious where we are going.

#135 DON on 09.22.21 at 7:52 pm

I went to Lowe’s looking for a change link with the bolt screw that closes the gap and stared at the price. At first, I thought it was my eyes or in the wrong bin. So I checked the bin number to the tag on the metal 1 inch link. Each one now has a product tag attached to it 5$. I was expecting under a dollar. Thats the only size they had…i checked all bins in three different places.

I stood their for a bit contemplating (have i been in a coma for 10 years) I wouldn’t buy it. I needed at least 8 and I didn’t need them bad enough. I went to plan B after mitigating the risk. They need to change their name to Highs for a couple of reasons.

Can’t wait till this ‘Transitory Inflation’ moves on in short order. But there is always an excuse….we need more data…??? Negative sentiment is a bubble killer.

On another note ‘major cities in China are asking developers to NOT undercut each other and bring prices down…as demand is down and they are competing for sales. Some China watchers suggest China will use the Evergande issue to enable a slow and more controlled correction to come more in line with their societal equity initiative.

#136 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 7:55 pm

#116 A Different Pond on 09.22.21 at 6:03 pm

And quite frankly, since it was the GTA that elected T2, they get what they deserve – they went in eyes wide open so there there is no sympathy for parabolic increases there. Unfortunately, this insanity has also infected every part of the country.
— ———

I agree, it looks good on ‘em, but the absolute suffering attached to living in the gta is really starting to push a crapload of them out. They appear willing to do anything to own a house. No agony is too great, thus the re values out my way (2+ hour drive away) are getting stupid now too.

A chain reaction of stupidity. Good for my bank account though.

#137 Squire on 09.22.21 at 8:05 pm

Lot’s of talk, but I still see people voting for JT.
Canadian’s will soon get a real wake up call.

#138 Garth's Son Drake on 09.22.21 at 8:13 pm

There will never be enough supply if anyone can buy in Canada as many units as they want.

Restrict home ownership to 1 property per CANADIAN family and watch supply sky rocket without ever building a house.

Furthermore, build enough supply to keep up with immigration, otherwise tweak immigration numbers to what can be sustainably built to achieve housing requirements.

The door is wide open for capitalizing on the market (if you have the money).

Doubt they will ever close it. And the new house TFSA is straight up discriminatory. I am sure there are people over the age of 40 who have never been able to purchase a home. How can something like this be based on age? Can I base my hiring practices on age? Unreal.

I think they did that in Romania. – Garth

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 8:14 pm

#119 BillyGoat
And I’m not crapping on Canada, I’m lamenting the downward spiral.
——————
Don’t lament, my good sir, a downward spiral.
Lament the loss of good friend, or a true lover.
Been here over 40 years.
Just uppa, uppa, as your buddy dolce fa niente would say.

#140 Planetgoofy on 09.22.21 at 8:17 pm

#167 When Will They Raise Rates? on 09.21.21 at 8:51 pm
————-
Sorry not keeping up.
So much waist. So many misappropriated funds.
The list is huge
The medias a joke.
People actually believe what the read.
Mr Fake is in power again full speed ahead.
Garths is right.

#141 27,132 on 09.22.21 at 8:24 pm

There are 27,132 active work from home jobs by employers located within Canada.

The doors for opportunity have never been greater. You do not have to move to get a dream job anymore.

Are you sure we are going back to the office?

Not happening.

Found a nice little BC town with access to one-click online shopping locally for everything.

Best bonus: get to hang with my dog 24/7 and never see Covid spreaders.

I don’t feel sorry for people still choosing to commute. Wake up. Vancouver and Toronto – forget about it.

#142 Public Service Announcement on 09.22.21 at 8:33 pm

Recovered my Coinbase account. Month later, about 20 emails back and forth with AI bots. Company does not have a phone number that works.

My 2-Factor authentication where you get a text message was accidentally being sent to some other phone number – the issue with about 100k other accounts. They won’t admit being hacked.

Had to submit lots of picture ID so they can sell it off to clearview.

I am still pissed how a massive company like Coinbase that is listed on the NASDAQ has zero customer service.

It is all AI bots and they can really mess with your funds on their platform. Pretty SEC will have a field day, if they want.

Still not as bad as Einstein or Quadriga though where they can just disappear with all the money where creditors cannot even find a penny.

#143 facts on 09.22.21 at 8:38 pm

So the common sentiment here is that T2 and his expert team are not financial geniuses.

Most here claim, and goes to great length to prove and testify that T2 and his experts are actually incompetent, irresponsible, some here goes as far, that T2’s and his gangs actions financially destroy the country.

Yet the same finance critics here fully support T2, like fans of a boy band, as if the honorable prime minister Trudeau and his team of experts were indisputable geniuses when it comes to covid policies and measures.

Something doesn’t add up.

#144 kc on 09.22.21 at 8:42 pm

71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.22.21 at 2:46 pm

@#51 Gee
“Anyone else been taking note of what has been happening in Australia, especially the last 4 days?”

++++
Earthquakes?
Submarines?
Shrimps on the barbie?

Could you be a tad more specific?

*********

Don’t mess with trade unions…..

I seen twitter feeds with people so pissed off they put the cops on the run… smashed out back windows and all…

Buckle up people and get with the game… they are going into 12th week of lockdowns and the people have had enough…

mandatory vaccines here???

My guess is we haven’t seen the start of the push backs.

#145 Bloodthirsty Millenial Vampires on 09.22.21 at 8:48 pm

Romania enjoys a 96% home ownership rate. The highest in the world.

Romanian millenials are avid home purchasers.

Canadian millenials are avid home purchasing dreamers, dreaming about owning a home but never actually being able to afford one.

#146 Dr V on 09.22.21 at 9:04 pm

66 Ponzie

I’m still thinking you didn’t get the joke.

Let George “Straight”en it out for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNlMzNUDM8s&ab_channel=GuriMalla2010

#147 PastThePeak on 09.22.21 at 9:11 pm

#116 A Different Pond on 09.22.21 at 6:03 pm

What is clear is that the hoped for September rise in listings will not materialize – not because of seller fear as their greed outstrips their fear – but because everyone will hunker down again for the 4th wave. …
+++++++++++++++++++++++

The 4th wave in Canada has peaked and is on the downslope (barring any significant change as a result of school returns later in the fall). The only hunkering down is in Alberta. The peak of cases (7 day average) in Ontario was on September 5th.

Vaccinations are continuing about 45K/day, plus the recent 4K peak of new infections which adds some natural immunity.

Deaths are 80% lower than the past two major waves, and 50% lower than the “ripple” in the spring which was a wave in cases but not deaths. There are no longer any “excess deaths” in Canada compared with averages from prior years.

Those cowering in fear spend too much time listening to Theresa Tam and the CBC…

#148 Drinking on 09.22.21 at 9:11 pm

Clap, clap, clap for all the ____ that voted for T2. In my work place I spoke to 20 and 30 yr old today regarding the election. Not one, and I mean not one had a good thing to say about it. One did say how many lives could 660 million (election costs) have saved during this Covid crisis. For once after speaking with them do I have hope, not for this country (they all plan to move on) but for there awareness on what is actually going on.

#149 Flop… on 09.22.21 at 9:11 pm

So The Liberals are going to raise the mortgage insurance ceiling from 1 million to 1.25, and then index this to inflation, but TFSA limit is stuck on 6k.

Seems fair…

M47BC

#150 twofatcats on 09.22.21 at 9:14 pm

This house was put on the market Sep 10 for $600K, then pulled and relisted Sep 21 for $49K more.

100 miles from the GTA.

https://housesigma.com/web/en/house/nM697k5keAmYbmwe/519-SUGARLOAF-Street-Port-Colborne-40168105-X5379103

#151 Alpha Dog on 09.22.21 at 9:27 pm

So the “Conservatives” lost again did they! Maybe it will finally dawn of the backroom boys that control the party that the Canadian voters don’t want two liberal parties in this country. One is bad enough. Maybe if they start espousing conservative policies they might win. It time to put away the idea that you must be left wing progressives in order to win. Many Canadians are looking for a conservative alternative.

#152 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 9:32 pm

I’m getting pissed.
Still no one has giving me the 610 mill breakdown.
Where did the money go?
Pony up, or be quiet for ever.

#153 Faron on 09.22.21 at 9:32 pm

#127 PBrasseur on 09.22.21 at 7:17 pm

Pay attention. I compared it because a commenter likes to pretend that he’s living in god’s green paradise while dumping on his birthplace that, by objective measures, is far more desirable. You know, objective like science. He’s forgetting how low the fruit he has hung is.

BillyBob, I take it back. There will always be room for someone as smol as you on the flight decks newly stuffed with dollar store merch. Spatulas and fake Tupperware and counterfeit everything. Kinda like plunking a kid on the grocery store horsey and plugging in a quarter. You’re a REAL pilot.

#154 Overheardyou on 09.22.21 at 9:44 pm

Somehow I feel all this promised and probable spending is theft of my unearned tax dollars, since I didn’t vote for them.

#155 Phylis on 09.22.21 at 9:52 pm

#148 Flop… on 09.22.21 at 9:11 pm
So The Liberals are going to raise the mortgage insurance ceiling from 1 million to 1.25, and then index this to inflation, but TFSA limit is stuck on 6k.

Seems fair…

M47BC
Xxxxxxx
Thought it was indexed but only at $500 increments. I do miss the 10k limit.

#156 Yukon Elvis on 09.22.21 at 9:53 pm

#151 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 9:32 pm
I’m getting pissed.
Still no one has giving me the 610 mill breakdown.
Where did the money go?
Pony up, or be quiet for ever.
++++++++++++
Look it up yourself if you care so much. Nobody here gives a quack. Maybe you’re the one that should be quiet forever.

#157 Mark on 09.22.21 at 10:06 pm

#129 IHCTD9

————–
curse your logic and wisdom and common sense. :(

#158 Mickey on 09.22.21 at 10:20 pm

#151 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 9:32 pm
I’m getting pissed.
Still no one has giving me the 610 mill breakdown.
Where did the money go?
Pony up, or be quiet for ever.
****************
Pencils….from a Quebec company.

#159 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 10:34 pm

#134 DON on 09.22.21 at 7:52 pm
I went to Lowe’s looking for a change link with the bolt screw that closes the gap and stared at the price. At first, I thought it was my eyes or in the wrong bin. So I checked the bin number to the tag on the metal 1 inch link. Each one now has a product tag attached to it 5$. I was expecting under a dollar. Thats the only size they had…i checked all bins in three different places.
———

That’s nuts. Were they Stainless maybe? This is why every dude needs to own a welder, angle grinder, an oxy/acet torch, and a 3 lb mallet. Not much you can’t remedy if you own those 4 things!

My rusty old Lincoln 225 AC stick machine is the longest owned tool I have, bought when I was 17 from crappy tire. Still works perfect, not one single repair made in 32 years of ownership!

#160 45north on 09.22.21 at 10:38 pm

Ponzius Pilatus

Haha,
He’s just doing his job to get elected.
At least no one got shot.
How many Mexican candidates got shot during last election?

Young, idealistic – and dead: the Mexican mayor gunned down on her second day

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/13/mexico-mayor-gisela-mota-murdered-mafia?

#161 45north on 09.22.21 at 10:57 pm

PastThePeak Deaths are 80% lower than the past two major waves, and 50% lower than the “ripple” in the spring which was a wave in cases but not deaths. There are no longer any “excess deaths” in Canada compared with averages from prior years.

noted

#162 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 11:10 pm

#114 Faron on 09.22.21 at 6:02 pm
#99 Pbrasseur on 09.22.21 at 4:46 pm

@Faron #98

just a question of how and when.

Welp, that’s a whattaboutism. We are talking about current conditions. i.e. what is currently known and measurable.

Aside from that, your argument is akin to the market doom-sayers who continually proclaim, “It’s all gonna crash!” And, you are right. One day the market will crash. But, until then, reap the benefits.

Sure, Canada might melt down one day in the future. Could be a year from now, could be 50 years form now, could be 100. Until then, one would be advised to live in a place of opportunity and, by the above metrics, that would be Canada (unless you want cheaper beer and even more rampant alcoholism than we have). It’s also safe to say that if Canada melts, the Czech Republic will also be melting and when that happens, the relative wealth of Canada (and sheer space) will make it a much, much better place to be than an eastern European nation with Putin breathing down its neck.

Another way to look at it is that Canadians hold a lot of debt because it’s a stable, trustworthy place and that makes it very cheap to hold said debt. Here’s another comparison that encapsulates the above:

CZ 2yr: 1.818% Canadian 2yr: 0.44%
CZ 10yr: 1.97% Canadian 2yr: 1.22%
CZ 20yr: 2.155% Canadian 30yr: 1.77% (there is no CDN 20yr)

This tells you that the entire planet’s people (minus two people: you and BillyBob) think that Canada is a far safer place than the Czech Republic to park its money. Maybe because it’s a better developed nation and is able to treat its citizens better?

Cheers.
—————–
See Grasshoppers,
That’s how it’s done. Backing up your points with solid data.

#163 Coastal gal on 09.22.21 at 11:24 pm

There are solutions to ” affordable” housing but are not widely implemented. Whistler Housing Authority https://whistlerhousing.ca/pages/purchase-menu has developed solutions to allow residents working there to purchase below market housing. The catch is the units can only increase in price based on the consumer price index when you sell. And you sell it to the next person on the “waitlist” so no real estate fees.

Jasper Alberta has done similar coop housing units for purchase by residents who were renting.

Residents working in these communities can buy affordable (non market housing) to raise families. They dont cash out on real estate… the unit is affordable in perpetuity.
https://whistlerhousing.ca/pages/questions-on-purchasing-through-the-wha

If the government wants to help working families access housing they need to consider how to keep it affordable

#164 greaterfool on 09.22.21 at 11:24 pm

anyone who voted Mr. Socks with hope to keep the RE party going on made a fundamental mistake. Government does not decide the house price, the interest rate does!

Liberals will make the bubble bigger.

#165 Faron on 09.23.21 at 12:29 am

#125 Do we have all the facts on 09.22.21 at 7:15 pm

Good points about the importance of demographics to the housing supply. I’ve read that, especially in a place like Victoria (newly wed/nearly dead) there will eventually be a surge of supply when the upside-down age pyramid is no longer able to live independently. A lot of housing stock stands to come on the market and potentially oversupply it and crash prices or at least keep price growth low.

I was reading elsewhere about demographics and other economic flows and am curious how much this factors into housing plans at the national and local levels. As boomers downsize nation wide, there will be added housing supply and that will help set prices (down?)

#166 Faron on 09.23.21 at 12:38 am

#121 KLNR on 09.22.21 at 6:38 pm

@#105 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm

good for you.
Canada is better off without you turncoats.

[edited]

Hear hear.

Man, the grousing here is way over the top. Hilariously, it’s a form of virtue signalling to their conservative brethren.

“No, I hate it more. Canada is a burning socialist dumpster fire.”

“No, no, I hate it more. Canada is a human rights black hole worse than the CCP and the PM eats children.”

“No, no, no, I hate it more. Canada actively runs a pedo pizza parlour while simultaneously torturing kittens and laughing at disabled children.”

“No, no, no, no, I hate it more. Canada is now run by Satan and a cabinet of Nazi henchmen.”

So much b!tching.

#167 Damifino on 09.23.21 at 12:39 am

#150 Alpha Dog

Maybe if they start espousing conservative policies they might win. It time to put away the idea that you must be left wing progressives in order to win.
—————————-

It’s time to embrace the idea that the conservatives are the “natural opposition party” of Canada.

#168 Dipu on 09.23.21 at 6:21 am

Ok you finally admit demand is strong. House price will never go down.

#169 Wrk.dover on 09.23.21 at 6:22 am

#48 Nonplused on 09.22.21 at 1:34 pm
Let’s put some solar hot water up there too while we are at it, but put some antifreeze in there because 5 months of the year it will be frozen.
_____________________________

Food grade glycol goes in the collector actually.

With evacuated tube solar hot water collector tubes covered in ice, I still make heat, when the sun rarely shines.

It does maintain my in floor hydronic basement floor bare foot warm, though there is not enough production to warrant supplying my domestic hot water supply in the winter months.

The wood stove doesn’t keep the basement floor warm (duh) so the free solar boost is a nice feature to have.

Be the change!

#170 Wrk.dover on 09.23.21 at 6:42 am

#158 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 10:34 pm
This is why every dude needs to own an oxy/acet torch
______________________

Switch to oxy/propane.

Less money, cleaner burn, cleaner cut.

Quickly save enough for a cheapy sales flyer 110v mig that will handle everything too thin for the stick welder.

And what about a plasma arc cutter on your investment brag list?

#171 it's over on 09.23.21 at 7:19 am

Moderna Inc Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel thinks the coronavirus pandemic could be over in a year as increased vaccine production ensures global supplies, he told the Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung.

“If you look at the industry-wide expansion of production capacities over the past six months, enough doses should be available by the middle of next year so that everyone on this earth can be vaccinated. Boosters should also be possible to the extent required,” he told the newspaper in an interview.

Vaccinations would soon be available even for infants, he said.

“Those who do not get vaccinated will immunize themselves naturally, because the Delta variant is so contagious. In this way we will end up in a situation similar to that of the flu. You can either get vaccinated and have a good winter. Or you don’t do it and risk getting sick and possibly even ending up in hospital.”

Asked if that meant a return to normal in the second half of next year, he said: “As of today, in a year, I assume.”

#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.21 at 8:32 am

@#151 Ponzies P!$$ed
“I’m getting pissed.
Still no one has giving me the 610 mill breakdown.
Where did the money go?”

+++++

Smoke and mirrors Ponzie.
While you fume about the $610,000,000

Trudeau spent $540,000,000,000 to get out national debt to $1.2,000,000,000,000.

Lets add another $150,000,000,000 to the debt.

Mooo hooo haaa haaaa haaaaaaaaaa.

#173 Mr Canada on 09.23.21 at 9:11 am

I love how Politicians amplify what that are giving you compliments of the taxpayer. The Home Buyer’s credit of $5,000 sounds like you get that amount, but the reality is the maximum is $750.

#174 Frances on 09.23.21 at 9:13 am

Having lived, rented and owned in Ontario, I have come to the realization that the best housing options are:
1. Move out to the suburbs/small town if it’s the right thing for you, your job, lifestyle etc. Pay 600k for a nice new-build with a hot tub, enjoy life gazing at the stars and breathing in fresh air. Pay off your mortgage and plan to stay put.
2. Rent a condo in downtown Toronto if you must be there for work or just want to be in the city. There is a swath of listings in the 2k-2.5k/month range, many asking for long-term leases, boasting features such as ‘great den for WFH!’ Covid ain’t over, and the real estate agents know it.

In either scenario, continue to work and make as much money as you can, invest it into the S&P 500 index (Vanguard’s VUN will do nicely), and build your wealth without having to take on a $million dollar mortgage.

On a side note, a colleague of mine recently spent $1.3 million on a two bedroom, two bathroom downtown Toronto condo. Her mortgage alone is $3,500/month. Similar listings in her building are renting for $2,900/month. This means if she wants to rent it, she will be subsidizing her tenant as she will still have to pay the $3,500/month mortgage, $800/month maintenance fees, $300/month property taxes and may only get 3k/month from a tenant. Think very carefully before purchasing a condo that you can just as easily rent for less.

#175 Bat Dance on 09.23.21 at 9:16 am

#111 PastThePeak on 09.22.21 at 5:34 pm
#19 Bat Dance on 09.22.21 at 11:54 am
STOP THE PRESS!

Holy Tintinnabulation!

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/wuhan-scientists-sought-to-infect-bats-with-coronavirus-18-months-before-first-case-documents-show

>>>>
Documents show that just 18 months before the first COVID-19 cases appeared, researchers submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, located about 2,000 km southwest of Wuhan.
….
+++++++++++++++++++++

Anyone who thinks that clandestine research into making bat coronaviruses more virulent and easier to infect humans, that takes place in the city of Wuhan, perhaps a year or two ahead of the pandemic…

…is in anyway possibly connected to SARS-Cov2, which was first reported in Wuhan, is more infectious in humans than in bats, where the CCP actively denied any investigation or access…

…is simply a wild right-wing conspiracy theorist that is anti- “The Science (TM)”…

+++++++++++++++++++++

How was this NOT the biggest story on yesterday’s news cycle?

IT GOT BURIED!

I found this with a simple “wuhan” search yesterday. Google returned it at the top from Telegraph and NY Post.
Then it started to disappear from that algo-feed.

Interestingly enough, what displaced it was CGTN – China Global Television Network fluff piece completely unrelated, appearing to just take the keywords to displace the other articles.

Strange world we live in.

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.21 at 9:19 am

@#165 Faron’s Fun Fest

“So much b!tching.”

+++

You forgot.
Canada is a Woke cesspool of expensive politically correct policies.

Canada’s expenses far outstrip its taxes.

Canada’s leadership is bereft of any original ideas except socks.

Canada kicks its own ass.

#177 KLNR on 09.23.21 at 9:40 am

@#165 Faron on 09.23.21 at 12:38 am
#121 KLNR on 09.22.21 at 6:38 pm

@#105 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm

good for you.
Canada is better off without you turncoats.

[edited]

Hear hear.

Man, the grousing here is way over the top. Hilariously, it’s a form of virtue signalling to their conservative brethren.

“No, I hate it more. Canada is a burning socialist dumpster fire.”

“No, no, I hate it more. Canada is a human rights black hole worse than the CCP and the PM eats children.”

“No, no, no, I hate it more. Canada actively runs a pedo pizza parlour while simultaneously torturing kittens and laughing at disabled children.”

“No, no, no, no, I hate it more. Canada is now run by Satan and a cabinet of Nazi henchmen.”

So much b!tching.

They are straight up snowflakes.

#178 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 9:45 am

#169 Wrk.dover on 09.23.21 at 6:42 am
#158 IHCTD9 on 09.22.21 at 10:34 pm
This is why every dude needs to own an oxy/acet torch
______________________

Switch to oxy/propane.

Less money, cleaner burn, cleaner cut.

Quickly save enough for a cheapy sales flyer 110v mig that will handle everything too thin for the stick welder.

And what about a plasma arc cutter on your investment brag list?
_____

There’s no way I’d go Oxy/Propane after years of owning Oxy/Acetylene. There’s no comparison in heat output, plus O/P goes thru Oxygen like crazy. I doubt you’d save much. O/P seems like a Mickey Mouse idea when O/A was already out there and is 10X better.

Migs are nice, but they are inflexible compared to stick. Switching electrode gauge/material/position takes one second with a stick. With a MIG you’ve got drive rollers, spools of wire, different gases, tips and nozzles to change. 1/16″ 6013 rod can weld pretty thin, I’ve done 18ga (.048″) mild steel no problemo. Migs just aren’t the right tool for these quick diverse little jobs at home, they’re for high deposition rates and production welding.

I do like MIGs though, and they are the right choice on a fab job like maybe a big trailer build. Lucky for me I can use the ones at work when I need to. But at home it’s stick all the way. If I ever replace the one I have now, I’d probably get a 200 amp AC/DC stick machine.

No plasma for me, the torch gets whatever little cutting I need done just fine – plus all the cutting a plasma would have trouble with too. If I cut a lot of flat clean new steel I’d probably own one, but I don’t.

#179 Dharma Bum on 09.23.21 at 9:48 am

#42 The Jaguar

@ 209 Dharma Bum (Sept. 20)
Damn! You nailed it. So funny and so true.
————————————————————————————

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DYje57V_BY

#180 Woke up this morning... on 09.23.21 at 9:49 am

Work up this morning…The Saints of Newark is on the way.

But also…

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern

And look at this…variant of interest (VOI)

Mu B1.621, detected in 04/29/2021

Evidence for impact on transmissibility: Yes (m) (14)

Evidence for impact on immunity: Yes (m) (12)

…scroll down to 14 and 12, because why include relevant details close to chart, right? Here are published papers on the science.

12: Jangra S, Ye C, Rathnasinghe R, Stadlbauer D, Alshammary H, Amoako AA, et al. SARS-CoV-2 spike E484K mutation reduces antibody neutralisation. The Lancet Microbe.

14: Davies NG, Abbott S, Barnard RC, Jarvis CI, Kucharski AJ, Munday JD, et al. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science. 2021;372.

Hey boys and girls…nothing to see here. It only completely neutralizes the vaccines we have and hitches rides on TRAVELLERS with vaccine passports.

We’re only interested in this variant.

No reason for concern WHATSOEVER.

#181 Quintilian on 09.23.21 at 9:51 am

“Focusing on the folks here and making sure I’m representing their interests,” he said.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/liberal-candidate-who-flipped-14-b-c-properties-in-a-decade-declines-to-reveal-profit-won-t-commit-to-ending-practice-if-elected-1.5572009

This perfectly exemplifies and supports my contention. Morally deficient electorate sending their own to parliament.

#182 Dharma Bum on 09.23.21 at 10:04 am

#95 Ogdoad

Why visit any of the online Canadian news pundits when an acceptable (and reliable?) summary of current political events occurs here?
—————————————————————————————

That’s the way it is today, Oggy.

The mainstream “news” is useless. Meaningless.

Milquetoaste.

With the exception of a handful of talented columnists (i.e., Rex Murphy), the drivel and gibberish served up by the media outlets is bland and barely palpable. They are gutless.

Blogs like Garth’s, and the musings of clever comedians via podcasts provides far more accurate and relevant reporting and analysis of current events, especially in the realm of politics.

Bill Maher.
Tim Dillon.
Joe Rogan.

Just to name a few.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebVdz-cGc34&list=PLfw-gJr8XPkP1iIrmQF_T9Kr-1iu9Ot3W

The truth is difficult to swallow.

Time to suck it up.

#183 Calgary_Guy on 09.23.21 at 10:09 am

As someone who never planned to overleverage themselves for a house and has watched countless people do so. This first-time home savers account is a joke. It is just going to contribute to the pricing problem and in 5 years we will be worse off than we are now.

That said. When is the soonest this may be approved as I would like to open one ASAP. Being under 40 and an avid saver I know my taxes are going to be insane later in life and would like to take advantage while I can

#184 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 10:10 am

If house prices stalled out in GTA/GVRD, how would that affect the rental stock? From what I understand, many recent amateur Metro LL’s are renting their “investment” properties out for equal/less than the cost of ownership. This is OK by them, because RE always goes up, and they will be made whole thru appreciation in the end.

But what if prices start sinking – or even just stalled?
Stalled prices instantly means negative ROI because they’re already bleeding every month.

I’d have to assume any halt to Metro price increases would very soon be met by loads of rental units hitting the market. Some might hold on – but how long would they? Investment property mortgage rates are higher, they had to plunk down 20%, they’re hemorrhaging cash every month, and every day they wait to unload, 10 more rental units hit the MLS. Wait too long, and suddenly it’s a buyers market and you’re screwed.

#185 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.23.21 at 10:11 am

Glad the election is over.
Now back to the do-it-yourself oil change blog.
Remember to factor in the opportunity cost.

#186 Penny Henny on 09.23.21 at 10:13 am

#120 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 09.22.21 at 6:15 pm
#100 40+ 0 Time Homebuyer on 09.22.21 at 4:47 pm
Why not make it accessible to ALL first time home buyers if you’re going to do it at all?

*********************************

Trudeau said, “A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian.”

Well in the same vein, a FIRST TIME home buyer is a FIRST TIME home buyer is a FIRST TIME home buyer.

Everyone needs a place to live so limiting the new FTHSA to under-40s without valid reason is overt age discrimination. There can be many reasons why an over-40 hasn’t been able to purchase a home (besides the obvious current costs).

/////////////////

Trudeau’s first time home buyer plan is obviously anti-immigrant if the max age is 40.

#187 Penny Henny on 09.23.21 at 10:21 am

#131 Faron on 09.22.21 at 7:40 pm

Me? I think someone who is creative and can put two and five together to make 32 won’t have to worry about being automated out of any job in the next few decades.

//////////////////

And that, my friends, is what a climate ‘scientist’ does. They write a program in which if you enter a 2 and a 5 the answer comes out to 32. And viola! It’s science.

#188 Woke up this morning... on 09.23.21 at 10:22 am

#67 Faron

#11 Woke up this morning… on 09.22.21 at 11:06 am

Will this not make investors reluctant to buy bonds at these low rates going forward? Or at all? Or in certain risky geographies?

Evergrande’s bonds have been rated junk for a long time. Junk bond rates in China are touching highs. This is a totally different animal from bonds issued by sovereign nations like US, Canada and others. The only rate effect I see is if there is any need to liquidate assets to cover losses in China in which case some US treasuries may be dumped potentially pushing rates up.

However, Yields have stubbornly refused to rise lately, so I don’t think that is at play. Bond prices have already “thought” about this until more news lands.

——–

Thanks for the note Faron. Indeed, the entanglement is significant. And complex.

My thinking is that if something disturbs that entanglement, the contagion may spread quickly. Confidence after all plays a big part, and when those lending start to lose it, it could run away and spread broadly.

China is certainly big enough t cause that loss of confidence. It certainly has that lever .

For example, more and more noise about the blame being placed for this pandemic where gut feeling told us from day 1 the blame was. However, China could simply say “try it and we’ll drop the domino economically and crush your economies.”

#189 willworkforpickles on 09.23.21 at 10:42 am

#183 IHCTD9
“From what I understand, many recent amateur Metro LL’s are renting their “investment” properties out for equal/less than the cost of ownership. This is OK by them, because RE always goes up, and they will be made whole thru appreciation in the end.”
………………………………………

The early days of going deep into debt and coming out a winner are past. Its late in the game and the risk to those going overboard into debt now is extreme.
A fatal move for many when it’ll come time to renew.
Governments come and go and this one won’t always be there for the debt junkies who throw caution to the wind.

#190 yvr_lurker on 09.23.21 at 10:48 am

#186 Penny

And that, my friends, is what a climate ‘scientist’ does. They write a program in which if you enter a 2 and a 5 the answer comes out to 32. And viola! It’s science.
—————
Nope. we can put a 2 and a 5 together in another way as a power, i.e. 2^5=32 . Exponential type growth here in powers of 2 models the initial population of those dimwits voting for the bat-shit crazy Bernier party, until thankfully that growth saturated.

#191 Dr V on 09.23.21 at 11:01 am

186 Penny

Oh Penny. Not science, just math. 2 to the 5th. Ouch.

#192 Gina on 09.23.21 at 11:05 am

I heard this morning that Ontario Teachers pension plan fund is buying Homequity bank. I know them well, they are a Canadian financial institution that issues reverse mortgages and you see their commercials all the time CHIP reverse mortgage with that former figure skater guy.

In my opinion, I don’t like the fact that public sector workers, government workers that got alot of money from Ontario taxpayers to fund their very generous pensions are going to benefit alot from seniors paying very high interest rates on their reverse mortgages. We are in a very low interest rate environment for secured, real estate with high equity percentage one’s property in Canada. These seniors have high equity to debt ratios and should not be paying such high interest rates. Most best mortgage rates in Canada are 1.70% to 2.10% for 5 year money. Most other mortgage lenders charge 2.2% to 2.75% for 5 year money. There are fees on top of this too. These seniors have properties in Canada are probably at 60% to 70% minimum equity in their homes.

The latest rates I found from Homequity Bank are from 5.14% to 6.49% for 5 year term on CHIP reverse mortgage plus a $1,800 or higher in closing costs and they roll it in with compound interest makes it double, $3,600 in 11 to 15 years. They probably have a whole bunch of other fees I did not see. I know they have to make a decent profit but their reverse mortgage rates that compound and are 2.57 times to 3.245 times more than Homequity’s 5 year GIC rate currently 2.00% looks high in this low interest rate environment. This is not including all their fees plus compound interest on top of those fees rolled in the reverse mortgage balance.

Myself and my grandparents have a bunch of GIC’s with Homequity bank maturities coming up soon with our GIC broker and it maybe time to shop around for higher GIC rates and for the principle reasons I outlined. A few GIC issuers out there are paying 2.4% to 2.6% today. Good thing my grandparents have saved through the years have no debts, mortgage at all, live in a modest house and a yearly minimum RRIF GIC income of $18,000 a year plus their CPP, OAS.

#193 Sara on 09.23.21 at 11:14 am

Kids, don’t try this.

“A party west of Edmonton has landed several people in the hospital with COVID-19, sources have confirmed to CityNews.

And this was no ordinary party–it was a “COVID party”, where guests tried to intentionally get the virus to “build up natural immunity” without getting vaccinated. ”

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/09/23/alberta-covid-party-hospital/

#194 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 11:17 am

#180 Quintilian on 09.23.21 at 9:51 am
“Focusing on the folks here and making sure I’m representing their interests,” he said.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/liberal-candidate-who-flipped-14-b-c-properties-in-a-decade-declines-to-reveal-profit-won-t-commit-to-ending-practice-if-elected-1.5572009

This perfectly exemplifies and supports my contention. Morally deficient electorate sending their own to parliament.
___

Agreed, but… who did you vote for?

I sure hope it wasn’t Trudeau…

#195 Diamond Dog on 09.23.21 at 11:25 am

Hi Garth.

Wished I had time for comments concerning the election, but it’s been a busy month for me. Even so, it’s been hard to get at all excited about Canadian politics. It’s the self serving nature of it that is such a turn off. The leaders serve themselves promising “exclusive promises” to the parties and their supporters pining away to serve themselves, wooing the self serving voters… the system is gamed to do it. Perhaps that’s why there was such a low voter turnout, even though the consequence of elections matter.

It’s the constant minimization and exaggeration of issues, the constant distortion of reality that turns me off. Damned elections. Welcome to politics where the truth is often the first casualty.

It’s like the housing “crisis”. Unaffordability is not the problem, the housing bubble is. Sure, we can lay blame to the U.S. Fed rate being near zero determining the rates our banks borrow at, but the Libs could have, say, changed 25 year mortgages to 20 year mortgages and done it early on with a majority government. And they didn’t. Would a Conservative government have done it any differently? Likely not. Who wants to turn off the wealth effect, especially when no one is complaining?

More to the point, who wants to turn off the wealth effect real estate can offer during a pandemic? Who is complaining about the gains investors have had in the markets the last 13 years as real estate has continued with it’s own ascent, feeding the markets with the wealth effect real estate has provided?

Do investors complain of the gains they’ve made? Money managers? I think not but the risk is there now right, bubbles everywhere. It’s in real estate, the markets are in a bubble and it’s not good old fashioned production and ingenuity that’s keeping it going is it, it’s government and that’s the problem.

The U.S. federal government just borrowed 10 trillion in 2020 and 2021 to keep a 21.5 trillion dollar economy alive and this doesn’t count the trillions the Fed has spent keeping mortgage rates at record lows. Meanwhile, the S/P broke 39x P/E ratios a month ago. The markets are in nosebleed territory, papered over with crazy amounts of public debt, a swollen money supply and a bloated gas bag housing bubble. As we know, there is a cost to this that hasn’t been paid for. Bubbles at some point deflate. The currencies of bloated money supplies will also fall. Both are likely to happen at once. This, dear friends, will be something to complain about.

The best and worst things that can happen is that these government engineered bubbles are government deflated. Where else are the markets supposed to go? 50x earnings? 65x? Do we understand the kind of corruption it would take for 65x earnings? Japan is the blueprint:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

It’s worth a read. It’s a quick take on regs and monetary policy that mirrors what we’ve seen from the U.S. Fed today with Japanese government corruption at the helm, cozy with business, everyone pining away for their own self interests. What follows? A lost decade? A lost 20 years? Near zero rates keeping a bloated, grotesque asset bubble from pancaking? Sideways GDP for 20 years (assuming the global economy lasts that long)?

Such is the risk that can come from undeterred government engineered asset bubbles. So follows, we should be more careful with what we wish for and complain about.

#196 DON on 09.23.21 at 12:00 pm

@ IH

stainless steel…that’s what i thought at first. Absolutely no choices.

@Ponzie
Opportunity costs or being hosed and upsold for a realtively straight forward process.

#197 Don Guillermo on 09.23.21 at 12:08 pm

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/snc-lavalin-corporations-and-2-former-top-execs-charged-with-fraud-forgery-by-rcmp-1.5597229

RCMP’s timing is impeccable.

#198 Charlie on 09.23.21 at 12:09 pm

There is a little bounce up today in the US 10 year treasury rate to 1.4% currently. I do not know if this is the start Evergrande debt blowup is having an impact or it is something else.

I am hearing from sound financial guys of mine that this and other Chinese companies debt problems is going to cause a decent 15% to 25% drop in stock markets from current levels, US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, UK etc. by December, year’s end 2021. We will see.

#199 Tim on 09.23.21 at 12:14 pm

We will see in coming months bond rates in Canada, US at 1.4% Canada and US 5 year, 1.85% to 2.0% US 10 year and 2.4% to 2.5% US 30 year. Debt will cost more in interest in the next 3 months.

#200 G on 09.23.21 at 12:16 pm

Hi #71, re: Could you be a tad more specific?

What #143 said, as well as the peaceful protester old lady pushed to ground then pepper sprayed right in her face. Yesterday peaceful protesters fired at with rubber bullets, they were kettled and arrested after being told if they just left they could leave, just before the shooting on them started by there government enforcers for objecting to government latest power grab taking more of the peoples right.

The enforcers haven’t figured out that they and there families rights will be taken from then next if they just keep complying and fallowing orders to attack there own people. I guess that is why some government aren’t inclined to teach history very well to the people.

I thought people died in WW1&2 to help keep our freedoms?

#201 Tim on 09.23.21 at 12:20 pm

Regarding my last post, the 1.85% to 2.0% are Canada, US bond rates, 2.4% to 2.5% are Canada, US bond rates that are coming in 3 months or so.

Regular GIC rates will be higher too with 1 year to 5 year GIC rates at 1.80% to 2.4%, 6 to 10 year GIC rates 2.5% to 2.70% incoming 3 months. These don’t count GIC rate specials from certain financial institutions I have seen.

#202 Planetgoofy on 09.23.21 at 12:24 pm

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.21 at 2:29 pm
After every election, people here are moping and “threatening” to move their money somewhere else.
Can I suggest Florida or Texas.
Their nutwing politicians will just fit your bill.
Or you can buy property on the Arizona ocean, right Goofy.
Btw, for every one of you there are millions who can replace you, people who actually wanna live here, and contribute
——————————–
Lol well just wait another 100 years just mayne the Sea of Cortez can push in??!
Panama is the best easiest place if you want to bail. Arizonas RE has been jacked up pretty good. BYO Gun there.
Been to all the places mentioned.

#203 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 12:34 pm

#121 KLNR on 09.22.21 at 6:38 pm
@#105 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm
Goodbye Canada. I will be taking my money to a different country. Its a shame what this place has become, my grandfather didn’t move here for this. Oh well, another lifetime.

good for your.
Canada is better off with you turncoats.
____

So your Indian/Chinese/Russian immigrant buds at work – do you call them turncoats too?

You and I both have Parents/Grandparents who left their native lands to come to Canada for a better life – they are turncoats as well?

There is no problem with looking for a better life elsewhere – Canada, and much of the Western World is jam packed with folks who have done exactly that.

#204 Quintilian on 09.23.21 at 12:35 pm

#192 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 11:17 am

“Agreed, but… who did you vote for?

I sure hope it wasn’t Trudeau…”

As posted before, I was disappointed with the early election call as I saw it as opportunistic and did not vote Liberal.

I am ideologically, and philosophically predisposed toward a liberal democracy, with a strong leaning toward individual freedom, but with strong safeguards to protect the weak and those who cannot defend themselves against the abusers and moral criminals such as the one I referenced.

I would not find Plato’s Republic repugnant at least until we bring up to speed the ethical make up the existing political stock.

#205 Propaganda on 09.23.21 at 12:39 pm

#191 Sara

Kids, don’t try this.

“A party west of Edmonton has landed several people in the hospital with COVID-19, sources have confirmed to CityNews.

And this was no ordinary party–it was a “COVID party”, where guests tried to intentionally get the virus to “build up natural immunity” without getting vaccinated. ”

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/09/23/alberta-covid-party-hospital/

———

This story has such high stench of news propaganda, it makes the BS meter go off the chart!

#206 Dina on 09.23.21 at 12:51 pm

Tim, Equity Credit Union has 2.5%, 2.6% for a 3, 4 year GIC and Tandia Credit Union has a 2.4% 5 year GIC. This maybe why they are giving higher GIC rates now because they have a good feeling, intuition that GIC rates will be higher in 6 months, 1 year from now.

We re a long ways to go as I got some 5 year GIC rates in 2019 at 3.6% to 3.75% and a 10 year GIC at 3.30% back in early 2020.

Inflation is 4%. Why would you want a 2.5% return? – Garth

#207 Is anybody home? on 09.23.21 at 12:57 pm

Yesterday Canada had:

-4x as many Covid deaths as it did one year earlier
-4x as many cases
-7x as many Covid hospitalizations
-9x as many Covid patients in ICU

Canada’s vaccination rates are:
-partly vaxxed 75%
-fully vaxxed 70%

Last year:
-0%
-0%

Now tell us how many cases, deaths & hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated as a proportional share of that population. – Garth

#208 Penny Henny on 09.23.21 at 1:02 pm

#190 Dr V on 09.23.21 at 11:01 am
186 Penny

Oh Penny. Not science, just math. 2 to the 5th. Ouch.
////

yeah I got it Doc.

I guess that makes me a denier :(

#209 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 1:03 pm

#202 Quintilian on 09.23.21 at 12:35 pm
#192 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 11:17 am

“Agreed, but… who did you vote for?

I sure hope it wasn’t Trudeau…”

As posted before, I was disappointed with the early election call as I saw it as opportunistic and did not vote Liberal.

I am ideologically, and philosophically predisposed toward a liberal democracy, with a strong leaning toward individual freedom, but with strong safeguards to protect the weak and those who cannot defend themselves against the abusers and moral criminals such as the one I referenced.
___

Funny, pretty much the same as me. I have voted Lib in the distant past when Liberals were still Liberals, but Trudeau ain’t one. Trudeau is all new on the Canadian political landscape when it comes to actual leadership. He is burying landmines for Canucks of the future to step on.

The house flipping LPC dork in BC is talking out of both sides of his mouth. Alas, no one in BC – at least in his riding – cares.

#210 KLNR on 09.23.21 at 1:07 pm

@#201 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 12:34 pm
#121 KLNR on 09.22.21 at 6:38 pm
@#105 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm
Goodbye Canada. I will be taking my money to a different country. Its a shame what this place has become, my grandfather didn’t move here for this. Oh well, another lifetime.

good for your.
Canada is better off with you turncoats.
____

So your Indian/Chinese/Russian immigrant buds at work – do you call them turncoats too?

You and I both have Parents/Grandparents who left their native lands to come to Canada for a better life – they are turncoats as well?

There is no problem with looking for a better life elsewhere – Canada, and much of the Western World is jam packed with folks who have done exactly that.

quit being disingenuous.
most of the folks in here claiming they will pack up and leave are saying it out of spite because their man lost an election. Not because they are suffering any legit hardship.

#211 KLNR on 09.23.21 at 1:09 pm

@The house flipping LPC dork in BC is talking out of both sides of his mouth. Alas, no one in BC – at least in his riding – cares.

#207 KLNR on 09.23.21 at 1:07 pm
@#201 IHCTD9 on 09.23.21 at 12:34 pm
#121 KLNR on 09.22.21 at 6:38 pm
@#105 christian on 09.22.21 at 5:08 pm
Goodbye Canada. I will be taking my money to a different country. Its a shame what this place has become, my grandfather didn’t move here for this. Oh well, another lifetime.

good for your.
Canada is better off with you turncoats.
____

So your Indian/Chinese/Russian immigrant buds at work – do you call them turncoats too?

You and I both have Parents/Grandparents who left their native lands to come to Canada for a better life – they are turncoats as well?

There is no problem with looking for a better life elsewhere – Canada, and much of the Western World is jam packed with folks who have done exactly that.

quit being disingenuous.
most of the folks in here claiming they will pack up and leave are saying it out of spite because their man lost an election. Not because they are suffering any legit hardship.

No different than when the ‘lefties’ in america said they would leave if T-rump won the election.

#212 Is anybody home? on 09.23.21 at 1:11 pm

Yesterday Canada had:

-4x as many Covid deaths as it did one year earlier
-4x as many cases
-7x as many Covid hospitalizations
-9x as many Covid patients in ICU

Canada’s vaccination rates are:
-partly vaxxed 75%
-fully vaxxed 70%

Last year:
-0%
-0%

Now tell us how many cases, deaths & hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated as a proportional share of that population. – Garth

I would if the government provided the data!

#213 Rita on 09.23.21 at 1:23 pm

What about for the portion of your fixed income in an RRSP? A 3 year 2.5% and a 2.6% GIC rate is better than 1% or less on government bonds and they are more risky, vulnerable to bond prices losses and higher interest rates.

Nope. The yield on our FI portion of the portfolio is almost 3.5% and includes preferred shares with a 4% yield and dividend tax credit – plus full liquidity. GICs are a really bad option. – Garth

#214 SoggyShorts on 09.23.21 at 1:24 pm

#209 Is anybody home? on 09.23.21 at 1:11 pm
Yesterday Canada had:

-4x as many Covid deaths as it did one year earlier
-4x as many cases
-7x as many Covid hospitalizations
-9x as many Covid patients in ICU

Canada’s vaccination rates are:
-partly vaxxed 75%
-fully vaxxed 70%

Last year:
-0%
-0%

Now tell us how many cases, deaths & hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated as a proportional share of that population. – Garth

I would if the government provided the data!
********************
Just google
“percentage of hospitalized covid patients vaccinated”

“By late July, a total of about 26 adults per 100,000 vaccinated people had been hospitalized for COVID-19. That’s compared with about 431 hospitalized people for every 100,000 unvaccinated individuals — a rate roughly 17 times as high as for those who were vaccinated. The data come from 13 states, including California, Georgia and Utah.”

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-coronavirus-vaccines-hospital-cases-rates-unvaccinated

#215 Is anybody home? on 09.23.21 at 3:13 pm

#209 Is anybody home? on 09.23.21 at 1:11 pm
Yesterday Canada had:

-4x as many Covid deaths as it did one year earlier
-4x as many cases
-7x as many Covid hospitalizations
-9x as many Covid patients in ICU

Canada’s vaccination rates are:
-partly vaxxed 75%
-fully vaxxed 70%

Last year:
-0%
-0%

Now tell us how many cases, deaths & hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated as a proportional share of that population. – Garth

I would if the government provided the data!
********************
Just google
“percentage of hospitalized covid patients vaccinated”

“By late July, a total of about 26 adults per 100,000 vaccinated people had been hospitalized for COVID-19. That’s compared with about 431 hospitalized people for every 100,000 unvaccinated individuals — a rate roughly 17 times as high as for those who were vaccinated. The data come from 13 states, including California, Georgia and Utah.”

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/covid-coronavirus-vaccines-hospital-cases-rates-unvaccinated

From Science magazine,
https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”

#216 Let's be Fair on 09.23.21 at 11:49 pm

There is rich irony in Mr. Turner’s persistent criticism of teacher’s pensions. Nobody in Canada has a more lucrative defined benefit pension plan than Members of Parliament.
Mr. Turner seems to have a problem with teachers in general. In a previous post, he claimed that teachers go skiing on professional days. Perhaps some do, though through my 32 years in the profession I never knew of anybody who abused PD days as he claims. A comparative accusation would be someone claiming that Members of Parliament are lazy opportunists who feed at the public trough. There may be some truth to this as well, though I am sure that most are hard-working people who make the best of their good fortune as well-paid government employees.

There are 338 MPs in Canada and 800,000 teachers. The average MP lasts 4.5 years and never collects a pension. And, by the way, my pension of $28,000 a year is donated. Do you know many teachers who do that? – Garth

#217 Let's be Fair on 09.24.21 at 11:39 am

“There are 338 MPs in Canada and 800,000 teachers. The average MP lasts 4.5 years and never collects a pension. And, by the way, my pension of $28,000 a year is donated. Do you know many teachers who do that? – Garth”

No, I do not know any teachers who donate their pension. I worked 32 years and my pension is $42,000 a year, before tax. Perhaps if I had only worked a portion of my career to earn that, and had embarked on a more lucrative one for the remainder of those years, I could be able to donate more than I do now to charity.

Believe me, I am very grateful for my pension and have never complained. I really tire, though, of people who criticize me for having a “cushy” pension and have no understanding of how hard I worked to earn it. I spent many, many hours with students both in class and in extracurricular activities for years. I find it odd that people who resent my pension are often those who have made far more money than I could have dreamed of yet have to manage their own retirement funds.

Peace.

#218 Tanya on 09.24.21 at 8:17 pm

Hey, Let’s be Fair, a $42,000 guaranteed pension is nothing t sneeze at. In today’s low interest rate environment, getting a 2.0% to 2.5% GIC at best is a struggle.Your $42,000 at 2.25% average 5 year GIC rate means you would need $1,867,000 in GIC’s to make $42,000 interest guaranteed. This is quite a big amount a private sector employee would have to save to achieve that.

Even with life annuities that payout 4.5% annually these days a Canadian would have to have $933,300 to receive a $42,000 annuity annually like your teachers pension and they would get no 2% to 3% annual pension increases. Remember, with life annuities, the principal is gone after death so they could lose alot of that $933,300 if they did die in less than 20 to 25 years. What is wrong with government workers getting pensions is that they should have to pay for 100% of it out of all their pocket and not only 50%. taxpayers should not pay for your pension.

Yes, CPP is funded by my private sector employer 50% but that is small potatoes compared to your government worker pension. I don’t know why you and your union should be allowed to force the government, taxpayers to have your own teachers pension plan and get it funded by taxpayers at 50% or half. Why can’t teachers and all other government workers get their CPP, OAS and be personally, individually responsible for their retirement like most Canadians that don’t work for government of any type. Many private sector workers, Canadians were criticized by the NDP, Liberal government for funded large RRSP’s, TFSA’s out of their own pockets with no government matching or employer matching. If we lose our RRSP’s, TFSA’s or make less interest, returns and have less money, we are on the hook and nobody bails us out. No government, no employer, nobody.