Most Canadians don’t live in a metropolis. For them, things have been weird for over a year. Folks in smaller cities, towns and the hinterland aren’t used to bidding wars, rockstar realtors rolling in Audis or houses selling for more than vendors actually want. Along with neck tats, scooters and vexing over pronouns, those were things best left in the Big Smoke.
But no more. Houses in places like Kelowna and Kitchener have erupted in value, with gains eclipsing those in Vancouver or Toronto. And now, more changes.
As in the cities, the number of homes listed for sale has crashed. In K-W, for example, the 590 properties that appeared in August barely topped sales and represented a 27% drop from last year and 13% decline month/month. Says realtor Troy Schmidt: “The number of homes coming to market continues to be overwhelmed by the number of homebuyers we have. The average number of days to sell in August was 12, compared to 17 in August 2020, and a previous five-year average of 26 days.”
Fewer listings mean lower sales. In this town transactions dropped 22% last month. A listings drought also means a squeeze on values. Kitchener-Waterloo saw average detached prices jump 22% year/year in August to just a few hairs shy of $900,000. Astonishing. In 2018 the average was $575,000. A 57% inflate in 32 months.
We know why the price hike happened. Crazy-cheap interest rates thanks to the pandemic emergency. Urban flight as people rushed from big city condos to the burbs and beyond. WFH allowing migration from close to the workplace. Aggressive nesting as the virus freaked people out and narrowed their worlds.
But why so few sellers now, when prices yield an absolute windfall?
First, real estate is a disease. Way more infectious than Delta. Everybody’s got it. No vax available. People without houses want nothing more in the world than to swallow choking heaps of debt and get a property. People who own some are smug, thinking they’re geniuses and this asset will go up forever. Therefore when the market softens (as it has been doing amid falling sales) they’d rather withdraw the listing than contemplate lowering their asking price.
Second, moving’s a nightmare. Sellers usually become buyers (although some smarties cash out and rent) and it ain’t easy. Few listings to choose from and too-high prices. Once you heap on land transfer taxes and closing costs, most vendors cannot afford to purchase a property equal to the one they sold without financial slippage. So they don’t. They stay put and reno.
Third, fear. A survey this week found almost 80% of Canadians think the virus is coming back in a major way and the 4th wave will be the worst one yet. Once again owners recoil at the thought of icky, germy prospects wandering through their homes, shedding on their stuff. The pandemic has fried a lot of brains over the past 18 months, and until Delta truly fades and all restrictions are over, listings will remain thin.
Finally, if you ever need proof emotion trumps logic and the pants are mightier than the head, here ya go. In K-W a person could pocket a 57% gain on an asset held for less than three years, completely free of tax (more if leverage were involved), while it also provided accommodation. This does not happen often in a lifetime. Like, usually, never. By harvesting this taxless windfall and investing it prudently, it’s possible to generate enough income to pay all living expenses and still grow a fat egg for the years ahead.
Instead, most people make rookie mistakes. Their recency bias leads them to believe this asset will rise forever. They gamble that unearned house gains will never be taxed. Their inexperience and financial illiteracy make then fear financial markets. They fail to understand how real estate can turn illiquid. And they live daily with the risk of no diversification – not understanding what even a few interest rate hikes might do to their treasure.
Naturally, when demand is high and supply low it’s a great time to sell. Especially if you’re trying to get rid of a tarted-up slanty semi, a knob-&-tube beauty, a place beside meth-head neighbours or anything with bugs. The kids will snorfle up anything today.
On the buy side, it’s obviously better to wait if you’re shopping in a market with short DOMs and escalating values. Things will change. They always do. You will learn this.
About the picture: “Hunter is an 11 year old Cavalier King Charles Spaniel,” writes Al. “He’s posing with his favorite stuffy. He had a hard day riding (sleeping) in the truck with his ‘dad’ and is getting a well deserved rest. He’s as intolerant of deer as my spouse and as risk averse as I am. That’s why we’ve followed your formula for years and are glad we have. Thank you for your blog. Huge benefit for the money!” Have a pooch to share with the pack? Send it to me at [email protected].
209 comments ↓
I DEMAND A HOUSE!
I DEMAND THAT IT APPRECIATES FOR EVER SO I CAN LIVE FOR FREE!
I WANT SOMEONE TO PAY ME BACK ALL I SPENT ON IT WHILE LIVING THERE! TAXES, UTILITIES, INSURANCE INCLUDED!
I WILL HAVE NO COSTS OF LIVING!
GIVE ME A BOTTLE MOMMY!
We may not remember what higher interest rates are, and to be honest, we never likely will with this coordinated effort by CBs.
But also, no one remembers what it means for your house to be bleeding value daily. And honestly, we never may!
They just won’t allow it to happen. Look at the track record – each time this is threatened, 40 year mortgage, lower rates, free money, higher CMHC values, government co-ownership, deferred mortgages for 6 months.
TO THE MOON BABY! $10M 400sqft condo, here I come!
There used to be a time when I wanted to retire in Kelona.
Skying, swimming. Eating fresh peaches.
But no more.
Fog in winter, smoke in summer. And neighbours who vote for MAX.
Not for me, especially at these RE prices.
I’d gladly consider cashing out and renting but there is nothing to rent in this town except for old semis in sketchy neighbourhoods.
Beautiful dog. Good boy.
– Bonds again today.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=h1
-Flop. Australia good god the camp guards are tough. Everything old is new again.
https://twitter.com/VeBo1991/status/1437403767561986053
“A day at the beach in Australia – We are not far behind!”
–
– #129 Jacques Pépin on 09.14.21 at 8:51 am
You nailed it. All the old ways of fun, enjoyment were stamped out with the New System, March 2020.
—
– Economic Lockdowns:
.Southeast Asian countries realize they can no longer afford their COVID control measures (fortune.com)
—
— USA: so this is how they kill the empire. Chaos. What’s next UN troops keeping order?
We’ll see what has been planned. Daily changes, into 2022-23. This ain’t done yet.
https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1437610007177146372?
“San Diego Could Lose Half Their Police Force From Vaccine Mandate, 45 Percent Are a Hard No and Willing to Be Fired”
.Massachusetts schools are short on bus drivers. The governor is sending the National Guard to get kids to class.(washingtonpost.com)
— USA: The War on Small Business
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cx5P_y8ckQ&feature=emb_title
Cafe re-opens as ‘private club’ to avoid COVID rules
— I always posted here, was the fall of the World Trade Centre the end of the USA as the center of world trade? Where else? China built their own twin towers.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jun/24/china-twin-towers-hangzhou-skyscrapers-zhejiang-gate
“But the firm behind the Zhejiang Gate Towers says any resemblance to New York’s World Trade Center is unintentional”
@Planet Goofy and No Name
I use Rock auto and Canadian Auto parts. I also do the amazon search just to check. Most often I go to the local Napa…bumper to bumper and shop local and get some advice. Most of the staff are do it your selfers.
If you have a diesel vw Kerma auto in the states is good.
In case you missed today’s headline on the freshly stupid…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/elections-canada-workers-threatened-in-dartmouth-cole-harbour-1.6174829
People have lost their marbles alright!!!
#162 IHCTD9 on 09.14.21 at 1:37 pm
#156 Russ on 09.14.21 at 12:45 pm
Hey DON & crawler guy,
Can we move on to brake servicing?
What is the best brand for the buck these days? I usually buy Rabestos (out of familiarity) even though they took the best part out, but left it in the name.
Cheers, R
///////////////////
I previously owned a Miata and when it was time to do the brakes (rotors and pads) I priced out the OEM parts and they were remarkably inexpensive. I’m sure I could have found cheaper but seeing that originals lasted 8 or 9 years why bother.
If Trudeau and his Liberals get in again, they’re promising to bring in 1 million new people to Canada over three years. Where are they all going to live?
The Libs and Cons election promise to build 1 million new housing units in the next couple of years is a complete and total farce, fiction. Does anyone actually believe them?
To build a new house, condo or apartment building takes years of planning, approvals, zoning, architectural design and engineering before even putting a shovel in the ground. Also, there is such a labour shortage of skilled building trades; foundation, carpentry, electrical, plumbing, roofing, HVAC. Have you tried hiring any of these tradesmen in the last few months? Very, very difficult to even get a call-back and when you do they say they’ve got a backlog of months work and they’ve all jacked up their rates.
And that’s just the beginning. For any new major housing development, you need to upgrade the roads, sewage, water treatment, power grid, fire dept, ambulance, hospitals, schools.
For Trudeau to stand in front of a house under construction at a press conference with his sleeves rolled up promising to build, build, build, is so emblematic of the clueless, out-of-touch, conniving, smug, liar that he is. It would be almost comical if so many people across this country weren’t suffering tremendously by sky-high rent increases and home prices that are all a result of his failed policies.
You’ve got a chance in a couple of days to send him packing and never have to listen to lies again.
There are reasons not to support the Liberals. Immigration policy is not one of them. – Garth
We sold about 5 years ago and rented. Our smarmy neighbor told us we were crazy. But we were mortgage free and able to live comfortably on the dividends.
Ran into him the other day and he was beaming – he just sold for 40% more than we got back in the day. Called me sucker to my face, grinning.
Until I told him that our total return in the same period is 85%.
He nearly wet himself.
… or you could lay your 600K ish down on this lovely 47 year old single wide trailer on Vancouver Island.
https://listings.vireb.com/listing/1swta?g=14
The world has truly lost its way.
#6 DON on 09.14.21 at 2:18 pm
———————————-
I try to support the locals also. Sometimes their pretty good. They caught onto everyone way online ordering and got more competitive. But when a hub bearing is $265 local and $85 for the same Timken I got the one shipped from Rock and returned it in the Lordco box as I needed it same day. LOL Same as a fuel pump $365 local or $165 from Rock.
I’ve got a gasser Toyota, Duramax some backhoes and a 2019 Leaf Plus. Love the Leaf! plug it…drive it. The only thing I never have to work on….
I find it disappointing that none of our political candidates want to talk about the demand side of the housing crisis. In a country where woman on average have only 1.6 children demand is being driven by population growth. That population growth is not caused by Moms!
If we had less immigration builders would be better able to keep up with housing demand and house price inflation would ease. That is economics 101 but no politician wants to talk about that because they are so afraid of being called the R word.
#103 Doug t on 09.13.21 at 10:11 pm
Dining out is nothing short of horrific. The entire vibe and social aspect of it is completely ruined.
You’ve got limits at tables for starters.
You’ve got mostly outdoor patios, improvised in street parking spots – because nothing is as enjoyable as fine dining next to idling cars. If they aren’t idling, they are driving by kicking up dust into your food. SO NICE!
Always a bonus a nice 5T truck going by at 40-50km/h because the noise and pull of air is sure to make things romantic on your date. Or how about a TTC streetcar going by right next to your table? Not exciting enough – for extra bonus points a nice lovely GFL garbage truck driving by on a hot summer day or evening. OH YES! There is just nothing like it. If you’re really lucky the traffic will make it stop right next to you so you can have some extra time to take in the ambiance.
Not enough still? How about the rubbing alcohol and bleach chemical smells at your table? SOOOOO appetizing. If all goes well the people on either side of you will leave as you’re dining and the sprays on that table will reach you and your food as you dine for that mist of coolness.
Or how about your server fixing their mask at least 6 times as she tries to tell you the specials before they handle your food. Imagine how the masked souls in the kitchen are dealing with it.
Oh, you’re going inside? Where you are spaced out and greeted by a showroom of plexiglass? Look at all the shapes, thicknesses and sizes! Are we dining in a open aquarium?
Restaurants have been brutalized, and so has the dining experience. It just isn’t worth the hassle anymore. Not even for lavender infused vanilla chai bacon flavoured chicken thighs.
—————-
Forgot to mention, I saw what remained of a “patio” section on Dundas West after a car plowed into it, completely destroying some 50 feet of patio, tables, etc. I just hope there were no people hurt.
These roadside parking spot “patios” are nothing short but a safety hazard for those using them. NO ONE should be eating next to legal 40km/hr or 50km/hr speed limit road!
Did I mention the huffing and puffing sweaty cyclists riding 2 feet away from your “patio” table? Yeah…that too.
What about table on the sidewalk so that people using the sidewalk are walking 2 feet by our table? Did I forget to mention THAT?
This is all very social distanced these cyclists and pedestrians…for safety.
I feel for these restaurants as we enter cooler days soon. Who wants to be eating on a “patio” in 12C weather so that their food can be cold before they stick a fork in it?
Meanwhile in Niagara region here are last months real estate number.
July 2021- August 2021
New listings 991-872 down 12.0%
Sales 749-740 down 1.2%
HPI (price index) 652,200-657,400 up .8%
Days on market 20-20 no change
year over year price
489,200 – 657,400 up 34.4%
link
https://www.niagararealtor.ca/public/Stats/August%20Media%20Release%20Stats.pdf
@ #11PetefromCalgary:
…In a country where woman on average have only 1.6 children demand is being driven by population growth. That population growth is not caused by Moms!
If we had less immigration builders would be better able to keep up with housing demand and house price inflation would ease. That is economics 101 but no politician wants to talk about that because they are so afraid of being called the R word.
Are you aware that it takes at least 2.2 kids per family just to maintain a country? No growth, just staying the same.
That is why many “western” countries are in desperate need of immigrants to grow the country and create extra demand.
Look at Japan. Their population is getting older at a rapid pace and no one is having children. I a couple of generations they will have a major issue.
Dilute the impact of the ever growing national debt by growing the economy… Grow the economy by increasing immigration levels… More immigration adds to the demand side of the housing equation… Interest rates are a factor but not the only one that will cool housing price escalation… — Extremely low interest rates were not caused by COVID but have been present ever since the 2008’s financial collapse… — Housing is to the middle class what bank bail-outs were to banks… Finally, the middle class gets to swim in a benefit after giving up so many jobs to Globalization…
#14 Jacques Pépin on 09.14.21 at 2:49 pm
…..
I feel for these restaurants as we enter cooler days soon. Who wants to be eating on a “patio” in 12C weather so that their food can be cold before they stick a fork in it?
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
NYC is already leading the way, TWO STOREY enclosed structures.
“NEXT LEVEL outdoor dining. IT HAS A 2ND FLOOR!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhaceeXqKec
“First, real estate is a disease. ”
Deus ex machina:
Pfizer developing a vax* for Cdn RE.
*2 doses. 15 days apart. +95% efficacy.
Now, wouldn’t that be something!
Ceramic brake pads don’t fade in repeated use/traffic.
Conventional cheap pads work for rural me.
When I built my garage in 83, hoists were expensive, so I built it over a drained pit in the center bay.
Anyone without a hoist in this era is not a tangible investor at all.
When you select a part from RockAuto, look for the yellow truck symbol beside the next item you select, it will be shipped from the same of dozens of warehouses.
They usually include a magnetic car picture with an order, I have about four dozen now. I have built a ground up car with their products. Saved about 80%.
Trudeau’s Future Job Prospects, Post-Election:
1. Part-time, substitute, drama-teacher.
2. Part-time, substitute, ski-instructor.
3. Sock consultant at a department store.
4. Pride Parade mascot.
5. SNC-Lavalin office boy.
6. WE charity motivational speaker.
7. Chippendale’s pole dancer.
…
Kelowna? Are you nuts? Who will move there now with the constant threat of forest fires, potential evacuation and smoke? I think the whole interior of BC is in for a reset.
From Toronto.com article:
Pierre Elliott Trudeau (1919-2000)
A 1988 film called Dancing around the Table documents the 1984 First Ministers’ conference on Aboriginal Constitutional Matters, through which then-Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau refused Indigenous people the right to self-govern.
For years, Trudeau Sr. advocated for the abolition of the Indian Act and the integration of Indigenous people into society.
“In 50 years from now, in what way will you be integrated? I don’t say assimilated, I say integrated,” he said at the conference.
In footage of the conference he also appears to be ridiculing Indigenous beliefs, customs and rituals.
“Are you going to pray every morning in public?” he asks the Indigenous leaders on one day of the conference, before instructing everyone in the room to pray to their own gods, then saying his own Christian prayers out loud over top the Indigenous ones.
“Going back to the creator doesn’t help very much,” he also said at the conference, during talks about land ownership. “So he gave you a title. But did he draw on the land where your mountain stopped and someone else’s began?”
When is Pierre Elliott Trudeau is going to get cancelled, his statues removed?
“….Instead, most people make rookie mistakes. Their recency bias leads them to believe this asset will rise forever. They gamble that unearned house gains will never be taxed. Their inexperience and financial illiteracy make then fear financial markets. They fail to understand how real estate can turn illiquid. And they live daily with the risk of no diversification – not understanding what even a few interest rate hikes might do to their treasure…..”
__________________________
Bingo! I’d say this comment covers better than 95% of Canada’s population.
There is a serious housing shortage in the big cities-both in terms of places to buy and places to rent. That’s why many of us are stuck with crappy rentals which are over priced. With all the talk about supply and demand no one is talking about immigration levels, which have contributed to the housing shortage. This is reason enough not to vote for the Liberals.
We’re to go back to the office for two days a week in the middle of October, as long as the numbers are good. One of my co-workers, who does the same job that I do, has moved to Napanee and isn’t expected back at the office. Presumably he makes the same wage I do.
I resent that I am being forced back to the office, riding with the unwashed (or unvaccinated) masses on the streetcar and he gets to WFH for the same salary.
TurnerNation on 09.14.21 at 2:17 pm
-Flop. Australia good god the camp guards are tough. Everything old is new again.
https://twitter.com/VeBo1991/status/1437403767561986053
“A day at the beach in Australia – We are not far behind!”
//////////////////////
They got off lightly.
My stint as Australian Health Minister would be short lived.
My plan for the Blokes would involve kicking some ass and taking names.
For the Sheilas, probably slap some bum until I end up in jail myself…
M47BC
Following Garth’s 90% rule. Even with pumped up real estate valuations maintaining recommended ratio to age.
No need to Sell and Rent.
“Most Canadians don’t live in a metropolis.”
Uhhhh. No. Seriously? No.
“Metropolitan area, also called Metropolis, a major city together with its suburbs and nearby cities, towns, and environs over which the major city exercises a commanding economic and social influence.”
That claim sounds like a pleasant, but antiquated view that makes the dominantly conservative rural areas sound more weighty than they are and certainly more than they should be per-capita. More than half of Canadians live in areas classed as “Large Urban” many of such cities are parts of larger urban centres. Happy to show you the numbers.
The average Canadian thinks renting a $500 a night beach condo in Tofino is “roughing it” (if they can afford it). They think the wilderness is going to a regional park. The average Canadian is about as in touch with nature as a person living in the Bay Area who visits whole foods and does yoga. i.e. not at all. Sure, Canada has a dominant and important history in resource sectors working and living in harsh conditions in small towns if any town at all. But those times are disappearing and in many places are looong long gone and are never coming back.
Obviously, this breeds tension between those who do live in rural settings and lean right and those who live in cities and lean left. That’s not to be neglected, but claiming an outsized presence of the former is disingenuous.
#10 Leftover on 09.14.21 at 2:42 pm
We sold about 5 years ago and rented. Our smarmy neighbor told us we were crazy. But we were mortgage free and able to live comfortably on the dividends.
Ran into him the other day and he was beaming – he just sold for 40% more than we got back in the day. Called me sucker to my face, grinning.
Until I told him that our total return in the same period is 85%.
He nearly wet himself.
LOL. Some people just don’t get it. Although many of our friends think we are nuts to have sold a few years back, renting has been very good to us financially.
Thanks Guys,
I forget about Rock Auto.
My MO is price check on Amazon and get it from Lordco where I have a deep discount account available.
There is choices on brands/quality usually available at the local store.
I keep a truck, campervan, car & three motorcycles, plus a couple o’ outboard motors running all year round.
Most were manufactured in the good old 80s. So we always have soemthing to talk about.
It has been a while since Garth joined in on the servicing brakes topic. :)
Cheers, R
I’ve spoken to many doctors…more variants coming and this lifestyle is the new norm for a couple of years!!!
Interest rates will stay low, immigration will flow in and prices will increase. Same as the last 10 plus years.
Buy now or be squeezed out of the market.
There are reasons not to support the Liberals. Immigration policy is not one of them. – Garth
Election losing Trudeau-Conservative credo.
“…almost 80% of Canadians think the virus is coming back in a major way and the 4th wave will be the worst one yet.”
Maybe true but the fact so far is this:
Complete disconnect between cases and deaths.
True cases shooting up:
https://i.imgur.com/4HqblNm.png
Ya, hospital and ICU too:
https://i.imgur.com/gQAbzIK.png
https://i.imgur.com/blrkmjR.png
But NOT DEATHS:
https://i.imgur.com/00GixCh.png
Besides, the cases, hospital and ICU that’s almost ALL on the UNVAXD:
https://i.imgur.com/rvDCKGZ.png
——————-
RELAX CANADA. It will not get worse with the Delta 4th Wave.
The vax is working.
Maybe something new will come along that’s worse. That’s all crystal ball stuff. For the here and now it’s getting better, MUCH BETTER.
In fact, once the election is over and Canada hits the magical +80% fully vaxd number I would not be surprised if Canada like DK and Sweden end of month decrees:
NO MORE COVID RESTRICTIONS.
Accept Covid is endemic, once a year shot like for the flu will do ‘ya.
#22 My Body My Choice
7 big thumbs up!
Can I add an 8th?
Borrowing from #28 Flop…
…or the Sheilas, probably slap some bum YET experience it differently.
Houses should be taxed. Longer you own it, the less tax you pay. Resets if you sell. This ponzi scheme needs to end. Also, allow mortgage interest to be deducted from taxes.
You conveniently omitted the small subset of blog doggies that are neither:
a)smug homeowners
b)mouth-frothing FOMO’d buyers
I am a smug bank shareholder that says bring the country’s mortgage balance sheet to ever-increasing highs! What an annoyingly self-aware, obtuse jerk I am…
Great thread from a bond bull for a lunch hour read:
https://twitter.com/coloradotravis/status/1437867722960896000
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Last salvo, off topic Garth but noteworthy:
Celebratory year in Italia, the 7th centenary of the death of:
Dante Alighieri.
“All hope abandon, ye who enter here.” *
Florence. The Final Judgment in the dome of the Duomo (for those of you that have seen it, now you know what you were looking at, by Giorgio Vasari & Federico Zuccaro, completed 1579):
https://i.imgur.com/dKPVAFm.png
—————-
* Dante foresaw Twitter.
DELETED
If capital gains taxes are ever brought in for houses, I would expect that would increase the cost of housing even more. Consider – who is going to be able to afford to sell if they are taxed on the gains and then need to go and buy another house with what is left of the sale proceeds, without first having to take out a sizeable mortgage to cover the difference, in addition to land transfer tax and other closing costs.
#32 Russ on 09.14.21 at 3:32 pm
——————————
Ya lets turn this into a car repair blog. Garth would prolly pull the plug in his server :-)
I’ve done likely 70 sets of brakes. Just for fun I get an estimate from the local shop sometimes because I like heart attacks. Parts are cheap in comparison. My god..
If ya got a bunch of gas burning stuff. Get a small parts washer…
Cheers
#20 Dolce Vita
“First, real estate is a disease. ”
Deus ex machina:
Pfizer developing a vax* for Cdn RE.
*2 doses. 15 days apart. +95% efficacy.
Now, wouldn’t that be something!
——
At what level does it claim to achieve herd immunity?
Will the vaccinated need proof before going to open houses?
Experts say housing market sales returning to normal in Vancouver, Surrey
https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/09/14/housing-market-august/
Prices up, listings down.
Prices rising since 2003. That’s hardly recency bias, Garth.
Not everywhere. Not consistently. All real estate is local. And not everyone should own. – Garth
Metro Vancouver is the eviction capital of Canada:
https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/09/14/metro-vancouver-evictions-canada/
The eviction rate was 10.5 per cent over a five-year period ending in 2018 for Metro Vancouver vs. 6% to 8% for Toronto and Montreal.
Brake pads:
Scotty likes Akebono brake pads.
On the buy side, it’s obviously better to wait if you’re shopping in a market with short DOMs and escalating values. Things will change. They always do. You will learn this.
—————————————
Sure…it’s always better to wait…so they can buy even higher than now and take on even more debt. Hooray! In reality…it will get even worse. Things never change. People never learn. This has been going on for over 20 years. Anyone thinking this is all recency bias is deluded.
So typical. There is far more to life than property. – Garth
A lot of businesses are now delaying return to work until 2022. This could be delayed further if new variants or other unforeseen events transpire.
I learn from being stupid. As a kid I stuck a rock up my nose. Why I thought this was a good idea…? It blew out when I sneezed. I was telling this story to a cashier who seems to like me when an older woman comments about peas. Yeah, I have done that one too. She laughed.
Not sure of the markets. I have been building cash expecting a better buying opportunity.
Let me interpret Garth’s comments:
A lull in the market may be a great buying opportunity.
If prices climb, as expected, 3-4X present values by 2035-2040, buyers in 2021 will be very happy with themselves. Yes, even a little smug :)
Realtor honesty. Jumbo shrimp. – Garth
For real estate I’m not expecting any price relief any time ever. It would be political suicide for any government to stop this train. Immigration, low interest rates, lack of supply, lack of developable land, policies to “help” homebuyers, etc. no way will we ever see any relief and in fact it will get worse.
Surely to goodness you’re not suggesting people try to time the market and gamble on their primary residence? You’re not clairvoyant, Garth. That’s some uncharacteristically irresponsible advice.
Selling to capitalize on a massive tax-free gain to finance the rest of your life is hardly irresponsible. Not doing so might be, however. – Garth
So typical. There is far more to life than property. – Garth
Investment returns?
Changing your own oil?
Voting in an election for a Drama Teacher?
Eating a 12oz steak medium rare near 50km/hr traffic?
Having it fall off your fork because a bus just went by at said 50km/hr?
A chipped Diesel pick-up truck idling next to a makeshift restaurant patio waiting for his take-out order?
What more is there to life?
# 9 God gave you your body, no choice.
To build a new house, condo or apartment building takes years of planning, approvals, zoning, architectural design and engineering before even putting a shovel in the ground. Also, there is such a labour shortage of skilled building trades
————
Not in my neighbourhood.
Like the olden days, the immigrants buy the land, get the permits and then pretty much build it with help from their community.
We walk by there every single day.
Everthing is prefab.
Start to finish 3 months tops.
Would I buy one?
Nope.
@#56 Meaning of Life
“What more is there to life?”
++++
Free , cold beer on a hot day.
A huge lawn cut and cold beer.
Relaxing in the backyard with… a cold beer.
The car washed and waxed and looking at it with a cold beer in your hand.
Anyone handing you another cold beer while on vacation.
In Global terms, the Californian recall election today is probably more significant than the Canadian Federal Election.
Left vs.Right.
Norway just replaced the Right with the Left.
Looks like Germany is going Left on the 26th.
Trend?
I am familiar with a country that introduced capital gain tax on the sale of real estate property. Decreasing by the length of ownership, when reaching 20 years, the tax rate is dropped to zero.
On the other hand, there is no property tax and mortgage interest is tax deductible.
#20 Dolce Vita on 09.14.21 at 3:12 pm
“First, real estate is a disease. ”
Deus ex machina:
Pfizer developing a vax* for Cdn RE.
————–
You should know better.
Pfizer did not develop the Covid vax.
They buy patents and then manufacture.
Just like Microsoft.
It’s Biontech that developed.
DELETED
Way off topic, but fit with the title “Smug”.
Speaking of Trudeau …
Rex Murphy & Jordan Peterson – The Election that Should Never Have Been
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3mZn5nimaU
#45 Leonardo DeVaccinci *
Cdn RE Lust Vax passport required to put in an offer or sell a home.
Herd immunity when the average home price plunges to:
$537,985 **
** $58,600 average home price in 1960 in 2021 inflation adjusted pricing – when RE was not a Cdn retirement investment strategy (used BofC Inflation Calculator).
——————
* The devil is in the details. I liked the DeVaccinci, clever double entendre indeed.
I think it best to defer to Conan the barbarian on this one.
“Conan, what is best in life?”
“To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women!”
@ 10 Leftover: financially I think you have crushed your enemy, I encourage you finish by driving him before you and to listen as he tells his wife about your victory that you hear the lamentation of his woman.
#10 Your gains in the market are paper gains and will be subject to tax, assuming when you sell you still have those gains. Your neighbor ‘s gains were 100 % tax free.
Sales are down because there is no inventory, still bidding wars in the 416.
No tax within registered accounts. No utility payments, insurance, property taxes, maintenance or closing/selling costs, either. – Garth
#44 Planetgoofy on 09.14.21 at 4:12 pm
#32 Russ on 09.14.21 at 3:32 pm
——————————
Ya lets turn this into a car repair blog. Garth would prolly pull the plug in his server :-)
I’ve done likely 70 sets of brakes. Just for fun I get an estimate from the local shop sometimes because I like heart attacks. Parts are cheap in comparison. My god..
If ya got a bunch of gas burning stuff. Get a small parts washer…
Cheers
********
LMAO – it is finance related.
Also include Penny H and SBby, IH etc.
@Planet…i agree the local napa or lordco is more expensive I only get certain parts…the rest come from online.
@Russ…pretty good discount from lordco?
Change all breaks at the shop easy 1200 once taxes included…
fuel pump…depends if you are lucky and it is easy to get at like the honda CRV’s otherwise a cool $1200 bucks. Heart attack alright.
Can’t wait for my EV purchase…
#61 Ponzius Pilatus
Ye who foots the bill gets top billing is how my mind works.
Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (note whose name comes first except in Deutschland, everyone else drops the BioNTech colloquially)
Pfizer USD: Net income $9.6B, Revenues $41.9B
BioNTech USD: A fraction of Pfizer, negative net income, negative operating net income in 2020 and a nobody in 2017. *
Recall The Golden Rule:
Whoever Has the Gold Makes the Rules
* If you are correct rename BioNTech to Lazarus.
#14
“NO ONE should be eating next to legal 40km/hr or 50km/hr speed limit road!”
———————–
Remember leaded gas?
And all the urban backyard vegetable gardens 60 feet away?
Ah, the positivity of the ending phase of the pandemic and the promise of more listings in September has now been replaced by the realization that we are not out of the woods yet, and listings are shrinking. The classic tease.
All those house horny buyers a year ago look smarter as everyone said the parabolic increase was not sustainable – and yet, here we are with even high prices. The promise of ‘just wait till Sept’ has been replaced with – wait its coming – for ‘Spring 2022’ if you want to buy. And then it will be replaced with, wait for Fall 2022. If you have not seen a trend with the drug of hope on this site, you have not been paying attention.
In my neck of the woods in BC, every single home in a semi-rural areas is now 1 million or more. 3 years ago it was 500k. Due to scarcity, houses that were once 800k in March 2020, and then 1.1 in March 2021, are now selling for 1.3 million. Latest house in the middle of nowhere had a 70% increase in prices from 2 years ago – now 1.5 million. And this is on a street with goats, trucks on lawns, and zero amenities in the area.
Maybe people can see the cementing of the social classes between the haves and have nots when it comes to real estate – and they are going all in no matter what.
Locals are aware of who has moved in – they are easy to spot with their displays of wealth. Problem is locals despise them and they are getting a cold shoulder from what is supposed to be a ‘warm and friendly community.’ People don’t take kindly to the decimation of housing affordability as it wipes out local businesses, pushes their young out, and erodes any sense of community.
Garth, i was hoping that you might say the shrink in listings is because everyone is waiting for the election results – but that implies buyers and sellers are paying attention, and care.
I called my parents to congratulate them on their 64th wedding anniversary. This will be spent waiting for a plumber to come fix/replace their 20+ year old water heater that choose today to leak and flood their basement.
No realtor will mention this as being part of the deal with home ownership.
#63 Way off topic on 09.14.21 at 5:20 pm
Way off topic, but fit with the title “Smug”.
Speaking of Trudeau …
Rex Murphy & Jordan Peterson – The Election that Should Never Have Been
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3mZn5nimaU
——
Jordan Peterson is still relevant to you?
Clearly you have not read this:
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2018/03/the-intellectual-we-deserve
No to mention that Jordan Peterson is a U of T Psychology prof, but ended up becoming addicted to benzo’s and claims “he didn’t know they could do that.” Hmm. Not exactly intellectual behavior from this so called intellectual.
Rex Murphy is an obvious oil and gas shill.
But yes, the election was unnecessary. Don’t need to watch a YouTube video to understand that.
Leftover on 09.14.21 at 2:42 pm
We sold about 5 years ago and rented. Our smarmy neighbor told us we were crazy. But we were mortgage free and able to live comfortably on the dividends.
Ran into him the other day and he was beaming – he just sold for 40% more than we got back in the day. Called me sucker to my face, grinning.
Until I told him that our total return in the same period is 85%.
He nearly wet himself.
_———————————
Yes, all my baby boomer friends are sitting on houses worth anywhere from $700k to $2 million and they love to tell you they are mortgage free. But people do not get that money sitting in that mortgage free house is money that is not making a return elsewhere – like the 8-9% annual return of the S&P for the last few decades. I, like LEFTOVER, sold my house in 2006 after a 300% run up in its value over 10 years (I have been renting ever since). And OK that $700k house is now worth about $1.4 million – so I missed out on 200% appreciation – my friends feel for me. But what they do not know is that I rolled the $700k from the house into the stock market from 2007 to 2012 – that’s now up 630%, plus I get about $80k/year in dividends, much of it tax free. Now the outrageous 630% returns are a combination of a once in a lifetime crash of the market and aggressive buying on dips. But every generation has at least one “once in a lifetime opportunity” and dips happen at least once a year. Yes I know I could have taken out a Heloc instead of selling and invested that money – but how many people actually do that? And as well a Heloc would only have given me a portion of the equity in the house and I would have been paying userous Heloc internet rates. Yes, renting does have its downsides – I cannot improve the property to my liking and I always have that “is the lease going to get renewed” anxiety. But having the kind of $$ I have now allows me to do things for myself and my family that I had never dreamed possible. And if I wanted to I could always buy and still have a silly amount of fun money left over. Just saying that I am an example of another way of doing “life” rather than tying ones hopes to one inflated in grossly distorted asset class.
mmmm, with all the anti-immigration rhetoric lately (including in the comments here) and seeing all those purple signs everywhere I really wonder why I moved here 12 years ago, created a business, paid taxes, and employed people.
I thought Canada was immunized against the stupidity we saw in the US and Europe, I guess I was wrong. Oh well
#53 Honest Realtor on 09.14.21 at 4:33 pm
Let me interpret Garth’s comments:
A lull in the market may be a great buying opportunity.
If prices climb, as expected, 3-4X present values by 2035-2040, buyers in 2021 will be very happy with themselves. Yes, even a little smug :)
Realtor honesty. Jumbo shrimp. – Garth
*************************
This guy always makes me chuckle. Sure, the avg TO house will be 6 million in a decade with monthly payments of 25-35K.
I mean the Canadian Peso dropping to $0.20 US could do it I suppose…
#63 Way off topic on 09.14.21 at 5:20 pm
—————————–
Yes its all about Global Governance. Climate change is being used a major leverage for this.
YOU WILL ACCLIMATE resistance it futile or maybe sent off to camp??
Government are just sad….Trudeau “lets keep moving forward” OMG what a crock.
A reminder about choosing your FURUs (Fake Guru) peeps:
If you had leapt in there near close you would now be down 20% despite the “strong fundamental thesis” of BB. Meanwhile, that same money put into SPX would be up 16.5% a crude differential of 36%. Not to mention realized volatility would have been far less horrifying along the way.
Note that SA’s thesis was based on fundamentals, not recognizing that BB was getting swept up into the meme craze. That failure to recognize why BB was moving was probably costly. Personally, I think it’s fine if you are into meme stocks and know how to analyze option trading dynamics to have a good edge on when the things are going to ramp. That’s a trading philosophy and one that you can gain expertise in with much time and practice. But, if you are trading something on fundamentals and you get a move way way outside those fundamentals, consider your work done. In this case, BBs market cap tripled in a week. For no reason.
My hunch remains that the behavior of stocks like TSLA and others that exploded over recent years have conditioned some to expect those kinds of returns and hodl ’til the death or chase quick money. I certainly get lured toward this. Eventually equities will come back into alignment with fundamentals and that style of hodling will lead to badness.
Note also that people like Sail Away work very hard to hide their failed trades because in his words “what fun would that be”. Not useful to outright damaging.
B+D. Gentle tuning if you have very good guidance. Yes, this is a bit of a grudge, but I think the example is a useful one for the underlying thesis of Garth’s blog.
Accepted wisdom is that Canada is not building enough houses. Maybe so… but… consider:
U.S. housing starts are currently running at about 1.6 million per year. They topped out over 2 million per year in 2006 and dropped to just 0.5 million for a couple of years and since then have slowly been going up but are nowhere near the 2006 level as yet.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts#:~:text=In%20the%20long%2Dterm%2C%20the,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models.
Canada has about a tenth a population and so a comparable rate to the U.S. per population would be 160,000 per year.
In fact Canada housing starts are running at a trend level of 282,000 as of June. Canada has been above 200,000 as long as I can remember. Canada has had vastly more housing starts per capita than the U.S. each and every year consistently since 2008.
So, if Canada is under-building housing, what must be the case in the U.S. ?
Is the Canadian population increase including immigration THAT much higher than the U.S. to justify building close to twice as many houses per capita in recent years?
My guess is more that the U.S. is under-building.
Maybe someone with more energy can look at the population growth to explain this.
Alberta Issues Vaccine Passport – I mean Proof
“You can get your proof of #COVID19AB vaccination in a card-sized printout through MyHealthRecords on Sept 16.” tweeted the ALberta government today.
Kenney may argue this is not a passport, just a proof.
When is a proof a passport? To mis-quote Jean Chretian, “A proof is a passport when its proven. And when you have a good proof it’s because it’s proven.
This proof will prove to be a passport.
Many reasons for the biggest bubble in history, but the major culprits are the quasi-monopolistic power of the Canadian banks; and the perverse safety net supplied gratis to the banks by CMHC.
But, above all, the incredible (almost admirable) faultless execution of their marketing campaigns.
Their ability to publish fluff by their marketing machines, and passed off as economic research, is so powerfully convincing it’s effective even on dupes and the dolts with commerce degrees.
#11 Parksville Prankster on 09.14.21 at 2:42 pm
… or you could lay your 600K ish down on this lovely 47 year old single wide trailer on Vancouver Island.
https://listings.vireb.com/listing/1swta?g=14
The world has truly lost its way.
**********
Well, it is walking distance to the golf course and CDN Tire. Not so long ago that place would have gone for 125k. The ones right on parksville beach 85K.
All over the east side of the island at least Vic to Courtney are asling high rents for the crappiest of crap. Same crappy houses are going sky high.
Locals incomes connot keep up. It is laughable at this point as both renters and home owners are stuck …have to pay more to move to new digs.
Friend of a friend sold his newish house…
but couldn’t face renting. He and his partner paid more money (House 40 years old – smaller size, in need of renos). for a higher price than they sold their modern house. Did it in the last year.
@Workdover
Shop Pit.
Now I am really jealous. Thats more than half the battle.
@Russ…I just went with the 2nd tier raybestos rotors $79 each on the front.
#13 PeterfromCalgary
Want to collect your CPP, OAS, and get healthcare? Guess what? Mom and 1.6 kids can’t pay for your future entitlements. Guess who can? The people you don’t seem to want… Funny eh?
Hunter may look amiable, but I’d bet anyone trying to take his favorite stuffy from him would quickly regret it:)
I have to agree that not a few potential sellers of RE won’t because they want to continue to own. The fact is that long before Covid came along anyone contemplating selling discovered that they would have to pay more to receive less. So yes, staying put & renovating was the alternative most embraced. My partner & I did exactly that for exactly those reasons. We would have had to take on another mortgage to purchase a smaller space than the one we currently lived in. Plus face all the issues with moving. I’m willing to do it, but only once. Fortunately we have no need to sell up in order to finance our retirement. B&D portfolios rock!
Blog dogs: Does anyone know what the protester that T2 tangled with was supposed to have said about Sophie?
I don’t find it. Just references to a misogynist slur. What exactly did he say? I thought it was simply “where’s your wife’? How is that a slur? Just wondering if this is another sympathy ploy (staged )..
No tactic left behind in this election.
What exactly was said?
I know our host is a big supporter of immigration but a serious question, or two.
We will be very hard pressed to meet any of the climate related Carbon reduction goals even with Canada’s existing population numbers. Adding to Canada’s population just makes the goals all that more next to impossible.
And the housing / infrastructure cost Elephant is huge once again even with the existing population numbers.
Another Million people ? Just from a cost to taxpayers point of view this seems nuts , does it not ? We need more of everything in the infrastructure dept. All at huge cost. And at the same time less carbon ? There is no magic wand. A larger population has to make all of this even harder to achieve. Many might even say impossible. Strictly from a point of view of livability and Tax Payer relief how does a larger population help Canadians ?
Perhaps I am just really dense , but from where I am sitting I can’t see any advantage to more mouths to feed , people to put a roof over, energy to consume, sewage to deal with , drinking water to provide, transportation to happen , garbage to deal with, plastic waste to deal with and on and on.
It’s not like I dislike immigrants , just finding it harder and harder to get by each year with the stagnant income, steadily increasing cost of living / taxes that many of us are facing. How do more Beavers either home grown or imported help Canada’s declining standard of living ? Serious question !!
Stop being tribal. Immigration built this country and is vital to help pay for the reckless spending of its leadership. – Garth
Even though Summers have been replaced with smoke season (like bad you can’t see outside smoke season) in the Interior of BC, people still revert back to what is ingrained in them. Investment money is still pouring in. Maybe not forever but definitely the next decade.
I will be frank, living inland is substandard and very unhealthy (not a great choice for retirees anymore) compared to Vancouver or Vancouver Island where you are within walking distance to the ocean. I am not talking Langley here. Vancouver. The Sunshine Coast. Victoria. Amazing areas. Amazing mild weather.
Nonetheless, the luxury building continues to moves on in Kelowna. I just saw a listing for a 1,700 sqft apartment in Kelowna yesterday for 1.7m. Wood timber frame. Nice but nothing flashy.
Can you find a place anymore for under 2m in the Upper Mission anymore? This, even though prices softened last month in spite of the media saying they increased based on this new flashy benchmark they are using. Price exhaustion has definitely arrived but I don’t see a crash happening (unless the current facts change). It will just be boring for a long time to come with sustained demand. Next year the listings will say “listed below assessed value” after assessed values print a jump of 32% across the board in 3 months time.
Also, you have to wonder how long until the whole area is an actual desert with nothing left to burn. I mean a fire just burned from literally Kamloops all the way to Vernon this year. But even if the smoke becomes less 50C is not a comfortable temperature.
Looking out 15 years I think the green areas of BC inland that used to be more wet will no longer get the moisture and be ripe for huge fires thanks to climate change. Think Salmon Arm, the Kootenays, basically the entire Monashee mountain range, Rockies, etc. There is a lot of fuel to burn on top of the Coquihalla too.
The key is being West of the burn. The nasty smoke moves affects immediate areas sometimes circulates West but eventually and more often than not moves East. Calgary is a direct hit for this smoke. Kind of like how Chilliwack is a direct hit for all of the Lower Mainland Pollution.
Try finding a decent rancher of about 1400 sqft in Parkville on Vancouver Island for under 850k right now.
Comox is approaching 800k for any detach. 650k in Campbell River.
We all know the story for Victoria. Screwed long time ago, not long after Vancouver.
So where does that leave us? The other Coast. The Atlantic Bubble. Houses on huge lots for 400k. WOW! The standard of living by the Ocean is high. Good quality.
People figured this out for the past few years and massive appreciation has happened and will continue to happen in the East until every house is a million dollars within the Atlantic Bubble. And when things get cooking in the East like it is now, that is when it gets more political (on the Federal level) like we are seeing.
The Feds ignored Vancouver forever. It spread. Now the entire country South of latitude 52.1417° N and up to the Atlantic Bubble line is Vancouver.
If you are looking to cash out, the Atlantic Bubble is your new cash out territory.
You could sell your Lower Mainland home for 1.5 and go up to Kelowna and buy another for 1.5, but that isn’t a cash out.
You can go to the Atlantic and still have 1 million dollars cash in pocket after obtaining your dream home. Buy a fishing vessel, a new truck – all of the fun toys.
#72 “But yes, the election was unnecessary. Don’t need to watch a YouTube video to understand that.“
Too bad you didn’t watch. A very interesting discussion occurred regarding “the topics chosen for the debate, is the debate”.
When we learn how things work, we make better decisions.
Vote intelligently. Learn how things work so you don’t depend on government.
“62% of the people can’t stay home during an election and cure things” -Ronald Regan Interview, The Tonight Show starring Johnny Carson.
(@3:40 min, but the entirety is worth the watch)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNmnmdtcdcg&t=1s
Those were the good old days. … https://www.historycentral.com/20th/1975.html
…but it is going to be one hell of a ride in finding out what happens in the next few years.
Nice Lofty valuations?
End of the world?
A Canadian housing crash?
A benchmark Canadian house price level another 50% up? 100% up?
My bet is another crisis that can be used to keep the money printers on full tilt.
But nobody knows.
History will be written.
It will come to a point where pressure beyond US government control and the dollar’s influence beyond US borders will be able to keep rates down low.
It doesn’t matter much what new name they come up with to smokescreen it…ever new debt creation is going to continue on and upward.
Those who say and believe government won’t because they cannot raise rates will be greatly disappointed having been led to believe the lies of economic hacks when their bubble is finally burst.
Debt to GDP ratios ever increasing these past 12 years are becoming unsustainable. (already there)
They will say debt creation to keeping rates down low worked until it didn’t.
Then all that was left, was/is the compounded accumulated debt to be serviced eventually with rising rates.
@#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
+++
Yawn.
Another wordy anti Peterson screed authored by another anonymous someone who would sell their soul to the Devil to have Peterson’s money, popularity and fame.
Homes may be pricey but I just priced out a new Rubicon to replace my 11 year old one…holy….almost 90k
#77 Faron on 09.14.21 at 5:59 pm
A reminder about choosing your FURUs (Fake Guru) peeps:
#64 Sail Away on 01.20.21 at 4:24 pm
Blackberry is starting to fly. A Canadian bright spark. Pay attention.
If you had leapt in there near close you would now be down 20% despite the “strong fundamental thesis” of BB. Meanwhile, that same money put into SPX would be up 16.5% a crude differential of 36%. Not to mention realized volatility would have been far less horrifying along the way.
////////////////
Wow Faron, going back 8 months to dig up an old comment from Sailo. On top of that he is vacation and not posting.
Man oh man do you have issues.
@#13 PeterfromCalgary on 09.14.21 at 2:48 pm
I find it disappointing that none of our political candidates want to talk about the demand side of the housing crisis. In a country where woman on average have only 1.6 children demand is being driven by population growth. That population growth is not caused by Moms!
If we had less immigration builders would be better able to keep up with housing demand and house price inflation would ease. That is economics 101 but no politician wants to talk about that because they are so afraid of being called the R word.
–
thats such a lazy argument.
demand is being driven by locals buying 2nd and 3rd investment properties at historically low interest rates
Anyone catch the pay increase by Amazon Canada.
“Amazon Canada set to hire 15,000 workers, increase hourly starting wage to $21.65”.
The Teamsters are also trying to unionize Amazon in Calgary. Vote coming up.
This surpasses the wage of low level government jobs that are paying right now around 19-21 per hour.
Hey unions – you paying attention to this????????????????? You still going to negotiate and convince your labor force that a 1% pay raise is a good deal.
30% wage increase demands or bust.
Also, with inflation that will be hitting 4% a 1% wage increase is actually a 3% wage rollback.
It is fine if the house cost 1 million dollars. Just give us the million dollar pay cheques to keep up, otherwise good luck finding staff.
@#48 South Burnaby
“The eviction rate was 10.5 per cent over a five-year period ending in 2018 for Metro Vancouver vs. 6% to 8% for Toronto and Montreal.”
++++
It’s amazing what happens when you’re consistently late with the rent OR are a crappy tenant.
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions.
Just another thought for the voting crowd, the 20th. last day! and think about this, trump haters voted biden, and then the s… hit the fan. In canuck land, T2 gets in because harper haters! Is that how we vote now, feelings before ability, before great leadership qualities that we all seek and someone with life, business experiences etc.
come on man
No tax within registered accounts. No utility payments, insurance, property taxes, maintenance or closing/selling costs, either. – Garth
Last time I checked the leases we do has tenants paying all utilities and they are required to have tenant insurance . Only the TFSA gains are non taxable, RRSP is just a deferral.
Once you heap on land transfer taxes and closing costs, most vendors cannot afford to purchase a property equal to the one they sold without financial slippage. So they don’t. They stay put and reno.
——
Hello! Yep, Reno sounds good for now. My little esker rippled village popped 30% over the last year, and the average price here streaked to 600k. LOL! What a joke! Average prices when we purchased were just a tick over 100K 20 years ago. Hell, even in 2015, 250K would have got you a decent place. COVID/Trudeau pounded the price from 350k to 600k since 2019.
What-ev. It’s just amazing to watch, and I expect all my native born Gen-X and up bro’s feel the same. Watching a great country going to hell in a hand basket in real-time.
Glad I was born into the pre-Trudeau Canada were normal life still existed. Won’t feel too bad when I cash out though, 2 building lots and an SFD on an acre, 15 or so years from now. Think it’ll be a Million by then? Maybe I should be voting for Trudeau…
#84 the Jaguar on 09.14.21 at 6:28 pm
Blog dogs: Does anyone know what the protester that T2 tangled with was supposed to have said about Sophie?
I don’t find it. Just references to a misogynist slur. What exactly did he say? I thought it was simply “where’s your wife’? How is that a slur? Just wondering if this is another sympathy ploy (staged )..
No tactic left behind in this election.
What exactly was said?
**********
Couldn’t find the reference may have to look on twitter.
#95 crowdedelevatorfartz
Most renters are not deadbeats. That number is more likely due to property flippers/speculators pretending to be landlords.
Alberta’s ‘open for summer’ plan set trajectory of COVID’s 4th wave, Hinshaw now says
Chief medical officer says she regrets ‘COVID’s over’ narrative that emerged from decision.
In May, Premier Jason Kenney promised the “best summer ever” for Albertans as he announced the government’s three-part plan to be the first and most open province in Canada by July 1.
That set the course for a massive fourth wave, Hinshaw acknowledged in the meeting Monday.
‘We have a crisis,’ Hinshaw says
As of Monday, there were 18,395 active cases across Alberta, the highest nationwide. By comparison, Ontario, a province with more than three times the population, has one-third the number of active cases.
It has put the greatest strain on Alberta’s health-care system to date in the pandemic, with about 800 people being treated in hospital as of Monday — 200 of them in intensive care units.
This has seriously impacted BC as well as the wall was not built in time or enforced before the vacationing red plates started showing up.
Best summer ever alright.
One big Okanagan dumpster fire – where Vancouver meets Alberta.
Everybody happy though, right? Business in Western Canada. YOLO.
DOOR FLYER, THINKING ABOUT SELLING YOUR HOME?
Beware the issues your friendly realtor dodges. The following comments are my opinion only. Advice, Check with your solicitor before signing on the dotted line. The following is carved in stone. The real estate industry is geared to looking out for the best interest of #1 and only # 1 being the realtor, and a distant second the seller. The purchaser will be found under the bus .The countdown begins. Issue # 1, CONFLICT OF INTEREST, here the realtor is attempting to fairly represent both the buyer and the seller in the same transaction. Point, (Even a lawyer will not represent both parties.) It is virtually impossible to wear two hats, by implying that you are acting impartially. Lets call a spade a spade. It’s “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE” not even Tom Cruise could pull this stunt off successfully. It doesn’t take the intelligence of an Einstein to realize the only winner here will be your friendly realtor. This is referred to as double dipping, meaning two commissions. #2, COMMISSION DOLLARS CHARGED, The elephant in the room, the big question here is, if I am selling my million plus home, pray tell brother, why am I paying the same commission as the seller selling a $500,000. home? Explain, please, the extra work, expenditures etc, you put forth in order to justify the same selling commission. I was under the impression that all listings go on M.L.S. isn’t this the go to purchasers bible for searching out potential listings? Isn’t this is what realtors have been preaching for years. Try as I might, I can’t for the life of me see any extra value added to even remotely justify your higher commission.
# 3 MY GAURANTEED SALES PLAN! I can hear the radio announcement in my sleep, ” If your home doesn’t sell, I will buy it Guaranteed”! Really? Read the fine print. Both the seller and the realtor have to agree to a sale price. I would suggest this is highly unlikely. And if I agree to this ploy, why do I have to buy my next home from you? And finally how many homes have you actually bought in order to back up your guarantee? MMM, none, so really this is all BS, just to get in the door. Which begs the the question, if you are dishonest from the start why should I trust you? Many more issues to follow, Stay tuned. I am on my throne and I will not step down.
@100 DON. There is something ‘staged’ about this new development. The ‘defiant’ and ‘petulant’ response. He got a sympathy bounce a few days back and my spider sense (Jaguar version) tells me it’s a ploy. His response too rehearsed. Sophie is the shiny distraction being used in the shell game. Though I have never forgotten her response to a reporter before he was just elected….”What set him off”? (This when he began to cry when a family reference was introduced.)……
“I’m pretty sure…I’m not a doctor, but I’m pretty sure that if you die from cancer the cancer dies with you. That is not a loss, that’s a draw.”
Norm MacDonald
October, 1959-September, 2021
#98 under the radar on 09.14.21 at 7:02 pm
Only the TFSA gains are non taxable, RRSP is just a deferral.
——-
Nope.
Banks ar Monopoly
#80 Quintilian on 09.14.21 at 6:16 pm
Many reasons for the biggest bubble in history, but the major culprits are the quasi-monopolistic power of the Canadian banks; and the perverse safety net supplied gratis to the banks by CMHC.
********************************
I’d agree about CMHC for sure.
But do the Big 5 banks have quasi monopoly power when there 5 of them and dozens of other lenders? When so many people go to mortgage brokers and get the lowest rate?
And why would a monopoly lend at lower as opposed to higher interest rates? Low borrowing rates are evidence of intense competition as opposed to monopoly power.
Actually, maybe it’s your fault for not shopping around more for a higher deposit rate. If most Canadians went to a broker to find the highest bank deposit rate then the banks would face higher deposit costs and would have to increase interest rates on mortgages. Yes, this is your fault. You and CMHC.
#66 under the radar on 09.14.21 at 5:31 pm
#10 Your gains in the market are paper gains and will be subject to tax, assuming when you sell you still have those gains. Your neighbor ‘s gains were 100 % tax free.
Sales are down because there is no inventory, still bidding wars in the 416.
No tax within registered accounts. No utility payments, insurance, property taxes, maintenance or closing/selling costs, either. – Garth
—————————————————-
Of the TR, 25% is dividends, 60% increase in capital.
We live on the dividends, nothing wrong with that kinda paper, plus we split the income and get the dividend tax credit.
As Garth points out, neighbor’s gains were in spite of property tax, which in this case would make you weep.
Anyway, listen to Garth.
Renting a cool space allows an individual to explore their interests, while many seem to need a status symbol to prove ego.
What is missing in that equation?
Is being proud more important than learning abilities many never bother to study or achieve because its somehow below them?
hum…wonder if they have something on the donald et
al ?
Inside the UAE’s
secret hacking team of American mercenaries
Ex-NSA operatives reveal how they helped spy on targets forthe Arab monarchy — dissidents, rival leaders and journalists.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/american-hacker-mercenaries-face-us-charges-work-uae-2021-09-14/
#10
Ah the renting has been better than owning people are back.
Fortunately a lot of us owners don’t live in Calgary.
I won’t bother doing the math for you, let’s just agree that there is no need for special measures to reduce housing prices, it’s the bond and stock markets that are unfairly expensive.
Glad we won’t have to listen to more complaining about house prices.
Alberta healthcare is in a critical mess due to Covid-19. I wouldn’t want to wish Kenney on my worst enemy.
Immigration … is vital to help pay for the reckless spending of its leadership. – Garth
Reading this blog about real estate, it should be absolutely obvious, this sick credo keeps the reckless spending reckless, the leadership as crappy as it is now forever.
Let the vital rubes from all over the word ‘help pay’ for our political impotency, let the vital rubes from all over the world ‘help pay’, because in our country only with a pyramid game of new players are we able to pay ourselves for the outlandish, world-class pension that Canadians enjoy.
What a virtuous, economically sound political philosophy that binds Canadian liberals and conservatives together to run a great dipper country.
#13 PeterfromCalgary on 09.14.21 at 2:48 pm
I find it disappointing that none of our political candidates want to talk about the demand side of the housing crisis. In a country where woman on average have only 1.6 children demand is being driven by population growth. That population growth is not caused by Moms!
If we had less immigration builders would be better able to keep up with housing demand and house price inflation would ease. That is economics 101 but no politician wants to talk about that because they are so afraid of being called the R word.
———
Homie, enjoy your RE gains. Make sure your tax remittances are as low as possible if you don’t like Ottawa’s current policies. If you own a home, and bought a couple decades ago understand that you have won the Canadian Roulette game. Bigly I might add. No one does from 2021 forward, well… not like we have.
I don’t like what Canada has become either, but I also fully understand that I’ll retire rich for zero effort – mainly because of Trudeau. It’s sucks, but there’s a great consolation prize. From here on in, Canada will slowly erode into a banana junk state with no culture or unity, and a sh!t standard of living for youth and newcomers alike. Be happy you got thru the gate prior to the Trudeau era of irrevocable financial desolation.
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions.
***************
How is that measured? Just our cars & factories etc?
When I order something from a factory in China who gets the credit for that pollution?
#71 GrumpyPanda on 09.14.21 at 5:44 pm
I called my parents to congratulate them on their 64th wedding anniversary. This will be spent waiting for a plumber to come fix/replace their 20+ year old water heater that choose today to leak and flood their basement.
No realtor will mention this as being part of the deal with home ownership.
______________________________
People running 20 year old plus hot water heaters need to know what the replaceable anode is, and replace it as often as their local water ph requires.
Could be bi-yearly, could be every decade, but it better happen.
Got forty bucks and ten minutes to spare?
S.Bby, I figured it was around that amount. But according to International agreements we have to very significantly cut our carbon emissions. Its a big , cold country. Canadians produce a lot of carbon on a per capita basis and somehow we are expected to change all this in a very short length of time.
No Climate denier at all, but I was a Transport industry Engineer for 30 years. I have a good idea of how unrealistic these carbon emission reductions are without drastic changes in how humans go about the whole everyday life thing. Almost everything we as a culture produces carbon. Transport, construction, food production and distribution. All of it and much more.
It boggles the imagination to think about a significantly carbon reduced future.
The worlds number one problem is too many people. Way too many people.
Why would Canada be the exception ?
“Property giant China Evergrande Group has said that it cannot sell properties and other assets fast enough to service its massive $300bn debts, and that its cashflow was under “tremendous pressure”.
Is Evergrande going down? I’d say, if it can happen there it can surely happen here.
“No tax within registered accounts. No utility payments, insurance, property taxes, maintenance or closing/selling costs, either. – Garth”
In this Garth is correct for the time being.
My low to medium risk global balanced mutual fund inside my TFSA has gained more than $2 a share since Nov 2020 plus there is likelyto be a reinvestable distribution this December. The combined gain could be double digit and tax free. For now it is a financial experiment.
Shawn Allen on 09.14.21 at 6:01 pm
Accepted wisdom is that Canada is not building enough houses. Maybe so… but… consider
………..
One word. Immigration.
3-4 times higher per capita in loonieland.
On cbc radio today some housing expert said canada has the Lowest stock per capita of all g20.
Slim on 09.14.21 at 8:12 pm
Alberta healthcare is in a critical mess due to Covid-19. I wouldn’t want to wish Kenney on my worst enemy.
Bull shite for govt propaganda covidarians..
ROTFL
Garth… Stop being tribal. Immigration built this country and is vital
***********
Garth, if you would be a women and stay close to me I would kiss you!
Question is not about do we need immigration or no. Question is about only how much we need and how much from different countries?
For Don G,
Do you like centro, olas atlas or suburbs or other?
What about matz vs pv?
Got the best taco ive ever tasted in mazatalan , tipped the guy a few bux , when i went back a couple days later he piled so much meat it was comical. Last time there i had a one hour interview to get my dog into a hotel for tbe night. Thinking of a year round rental down that way.
#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
Peterson’s intellectual quality and integrity is in an entirely different universe above “this”.
to #96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions.
**********
Forget about this.
Every countries (except very few of them – like Russia, Brazil…) should pay us FOREST TAX.
Canada don’t need to pay carbon tax. Our forests absorbing 100 times more carbon compare with 2% carbon emissions. We need to exit from Paris agreement immediately.
Metrosexual Messiah had a Mini Meltdown…
M47BC
https://twitter.com/vancolour/status/1437609636933242883
#107 Shawn Allen: mile wide knowledge 1/4 inch deep
“Low borrowing rates are evidence of intense competition as opposed to monopoly power.”
NO.
Low rates are evidence of Central bankers recklessly expanding their spreadsheet.
But that aside, I made no accusation of banks overcharging on mortgage rates because of lack of competition.
The banks can make a lot charging low rates on very large loans that carry no risk.
My disdain with that bank and CMHC is that the banks take no risk, and in doing so it’s to their benefit to promote homeownership, driving demand, so that what should be a 500k mortgage has now morphed into a 1.2 mil mortgage because of a hyped-up marketing tactics they use in a symbiotic relationship they have with the RE Cartel.
Both use fluff and have it packaged bearing names of economists and pass it up as research.
People want to borrow. Blame them, not the lenders. – Garth
@#124 facts on 09.14.21 at 8:59 pm
#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
Peterson’s intellectual quality and integrity is in an entirely different universe above “this”.
–
JP is a deeply disturbed dude.
guy is in a really dark place.
For Dolce Dept. #s:
– Seen elsewhere. Table 6. Most Alberta people in hospital are in there with serious pre-existing conditions. Is CV the chicken or the egg or what?
https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm?fbclid=IwAR0rmQY2KXnpu6ItQfXoNJCDDV44vzgad_ljzSt6Fvgszg2mBtN7SyabUFg#vaccine-outcomes
“Pre-existing conditions include respiratory diseases, diabetes, stroke, dementia, cardiovascular disease, liver diseases, renal diseases, cancer and immuno-deficiency diseases.”
—
— USA: All those Un-V people in the hospital. The CDC says less than 14 days after a shot you are still Un-V.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7034e5-H.pdf
. Persons were considered fully vaccinated ≥14 days after
receipt of the second dose in a 2-dose series …and unvaccinated <14 days after receipt of the
—
— Kanada: But we have eradicated the Flu! Do they stil test for it?
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2020-2021/weeks-30-34-july-25-august-28-2021.html
"Despite continued monitoring for influenza across Canada, there was no evidence of community circulation of influenza throughout the 2020-2021 surveillance season. "
—
— Our global elites looks set to cancel Christmas for a 2nd year. They must be roaring with laughter. All the old culture more be torn down in this global revolution Comrades.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126259905/yes-the-supply-chain-grinch-will-probably-steal-christmas-again
"Consumers could face the prospect of empty shelves, or much higher prices for Christmas presents this year, as things continue to get worse at the world’s ports.
Freight Right Global Logistics chief executive Robert Khachatryan is the grinch of Christmas to come, issuing stark warnings about the likelihood of everyone in the world getting presents this Christmas."
#104 the jaguar on 09.14.21 at 7:37 pm
@100 DON. There is something ‘staged’ about this new development. The ‘defiant’ and ‘petulant’ response. He got a sympathy bounce a few days back and my spider sense (Jaguar version) tells me it’s a ploy. His response too rehearsed. Sophie is the shiny distraction being used in the shell game. Though I have never forgotten her response to a reporter before he was just elected….”What set him off”? (This when he began to cry when a family reference was introduced.)……
*******
Yup…i had the same thought…the headline focused on her but no mention of what the jack ass said about her. Bad reporting or a blatant brazen reuse and twist of the rock throwing incident.
While standing in the voting line about to vote, I saw a list of parties and almost voted for the Communist Party…at least they were not trying to misrepresent.
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions
—————————
That’s quite a bit.
For 36 Mill people.
There are 8.3 billion souls on this planet.
Get out your abacus.
Meh. Free advice…?
Rent?
Own?
B&D portfolio?
Rather than prattle on as to which is best, I just do them all. Own in one country, rent in another, and keep the portfolio in a third (tax-advantaged) third. End of debate. Simples. As you were, carry on arguing.
But I do strongly recommend having a job which you love, preferably paying very well. It’s still kind of a surprise every two week when a big chunk of change appears in my account. “What? Again? MORE?!” smh
As the man said, do something you enjoy for a living and and you’ll never work a day in your life…
The added bonus is the massive consumption of fossil fuels. Soothes my contrary wee soul to do something considered so tsk-tsk naughty in this day and age. I mean if I didn’t do this I’d have to take up smoking or big-game hunting or something. But the punchline is…it’s in service of the frivolous desires of those who earnestly claim to be alarmed about the “climate emergency”. Click “Like” on some Facebook climate change page, then “Buy Now” on Amazon. hahahah! Love it, and please, keep it coming you beautiful hypocritical consumers. Some might hate”Made in China”, but with the shortage of sea containers that’s a very lucrative flight for me.
#50 The Woosh on 09.14.21 at 4:28 pm
On the buy side, it’s obviously better to wait if you’re shopping in a market with short DOMs and escalating values. Things will change. They always do. You will learn this.
—————————————
Sure…it’s always better to wait…so they can buy even higher than now and take on even more debt. Hooray! In reality…it will get even worse. Things never change. People never learn. This has been going on for over 20 years. Anyone thinking this is all recency bias is deluded.
So typical. There is far more to life than property. – Garth
——————————————————
Of course there is. My home is just a place to live in. I’ve never looked at it as “property”.
But otherwise, let’s be real about real estate. Each successive political party in power has done nothing but juice the housing market decade after decade and they’ll continue to do it because the formula works…for them. Not for you or me or even the “average” Joe Blow…just for them…’cause it works to get them back into power!
115 SoggyShorts on 09.14.21 at 8:21 pm
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions.
***************
How is that measured? Just our cars & factories etc?
When I order something from a factory in China who gets the credit for that pollution?
—————————
Very good point.
@#130 DON and The jag
A local newsfeed explained that Trudeau reacted to a heckler who asked,
” Where’s your wife, I hear she’s a real ****.”
To which Trudeau responded , “Don’t you have a hospital protest somewhere to be at?”
Apparently Trudeau was more annoyed at the line of questioning a Global TV reporter followed.
She pounded him on Reconciliation and Racism and ignored Climate change and Covid.
She ended the interview and Trudeau was surprised and asked her why she didnt talk about Climate Change and Covid and she went right back to Reconciliation and racism.
Good to know Trudeau’s endless politically correct pandering has now come back to bite.
Hunter has a bed fit for a King (Charles Cavalier) – good on ya, Hunter!
Always best to wait ..?
Glad we didn’t wait back in 2011…
Garth and I thought houses were crazy priced then, wifey and her sister real estate agent set me straight…and we bought, best thing we ever did, I wish now we bought a 2nd…but I was certain it would crash by 2015. Who knew the gov and BOC would do anything to protect housing and are an integral part of the ponzi scheme.
#92 Penny Henny on 09.14.21 at 6:53 pm
Sail Away unintentionally provides useful illustrative points on the perils of following stock gurus. His defense of Blackberry as a good fundamental investment followed by a claim that he doesn’t day trade followed by an announcement that he’s getting into meme stocks with his son right when they all peaked speaks volumes. If he was honest he would express those losses. Like all egomaniacs, he doesn’t. That’s not my failing.
I check some of the meme stocks regularly and happened to notice BB about to cruss under 10US. So I had a look… And then I LOLed.
As a contrast, I don’t feel a need to do this with SoggyShorts because he is straight up. Get it? Milmech described his strategy clearly.
#115 SoggyShorts
When I order something from a factory in China who gets the credit for that pollution?
China would get the credit. It is counted at the source.
Welp we followed Garths advice a decade ago did a balanced 60/40 portfolio. Sold the Gta house and moved to the K/W area 2.5yrs ago. With the equity we topped up our RRSP and RESP. 1 adult kid working , the other teenager going to uni soon and 2 dogs! We love it here. Commuted my pension and we are within the rule of 90. I show this article to hubby and he says we can’t sell and rent too many kids and dogs to put a roof over. So it is a no go.
#128 KLNR on 09.14.21 at 9:33 pm
@#124 facts on 09.14.21 at 8:59 pm
#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
Peterson’s intellectual quality and integrity is in an entirely different universe above “this”.
–
JP is a deeply disturbed dude.
guy is in a really dark place.
–
We are all in a really dark place.
Some can see it, some can’t.
57 Ponzie
“Start to finish 3 months tops.”
That is construction, not development. BIG difference.
#131 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.21 at 10:03 pm
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions
—————————
That’s quite a bit.
For 36 Mill people.
There are
8.37.7 billion souls on this planet.Get out your abacus.
********************
My abacus is rusty and it’s late but here goes:
36m is 1/213th of 7.7b
2% is 1/50th of 100%
Canada is contributing 4.26x our “fair share”” of pollution?
And only now did I realize I should have just googled it:
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/
Canada produces more than 2x the pollution of China per capita and that’s before we factor in how much of their pollution comes from making things we consume.
Canada is
#37 in highest population
#7 in total emissions
#7 in emissions per capita
Are we the baddies? (O.o)
106 #98 under the radar on 09.14.21 at 7:02 pm
Only the TFSA gains are non taxable, RRSP is just a deferral.
——-
Nope.
When you take from your RRSP you pay tax. gains inside your RRSP remain tax free until you start taking out the money, then you pay tax on the funds withdrawn at your marginal rate , hence a deferral.
Not saying don’t have these , just saying what was left out.
#144 SoggyShorts on 09.15.21 at 3:54 am
Canada is
#37 in highest population
#7 in total emissions
#7 in emissions per capita
Are we the baddies? (O.o)
Xxxxxxxxx
Only if you think the solution to pollution is dilution.
#131 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.21 at 10:03 pm
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions
—————————
That’s quite a bit.
For 36 Mill people.
There are 8.3 billion souls on this planet.
Get out your abacus.
________________________________
Let me help;
8,300 million souls on Earth.
Canada has 36 million of them.
Canadian population is .0043 of the world.
We produce 2%!!!!
@#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.21 at 10:19 pm
Thanks CEF. It remains under review for authenticity.
Read the advance polls are significantly up from last election. In a pandemic that’s a ‘leading indicator’.
La Belle Province “Throws down the Gaunlet”!
QUEBEC • The National Assembly is calling for an apology from the consortium of media broadcasters that drafted a question saying Quebec has discriminatory laws for the English leaders’ debate last week.
In a unanimous vote Tuesday, MNAS adopted a Parti Québécois-sponsored motion calling for a formal apology for the “hostile trial launched against the Quebec nation during the anglophone televised debate of Sept. 9, 2021.”
It calls for an “end to the Quebec bashing, a phenomena which hinders the good functioning of the Canadian federation and which seeks to negatively generalize sensitive issues” and which “depicts Quebec in an unjust and negative manner.”
+++++++++++++++++
@#132 BillyBob on 09.14.21 at 10:05 pm – (Snippet today’s NP article by Eric Nuttall)
“The world is hurtling toward an energy crisis, one in which the demand for oil in my opinion will grow for at least the next decade, yet the global oil supply chain can no longer adequately respond to it due to stringent environment, social and governance regulations and pressure from investors.
How did we get here? Energy ignorance: the lack of knowledge of how oil is used, how critical it is to our daily lives, and the realistic timeline to replace it with a “renewable” alternative lie at the epicentre of the coming energy crisis.
This is our energy reality: the runway to displace oil as a transportation fuel is measured in decades while the ability to reduce oil consumption in non-travel related areas would require a meaningful reduction in the average person’s quality of living — a choice that will not be made willingly.
Ignoring the trillions of dollars needed for investing in resources, where are the required base metals and rare earths expected to come from when, for example, Royal Bank of Canada is already forecasting a 32-per-cent supply deficit for copper by 2030. What about the 40 per cent of oil consumption that is non-travel related such as plastics, rubber, lubricants, medicine, makeup, cement, and thousands of other applications? ” +++++
All you anti oil types can now just climb back into your SUV’s or Tacoma’s and drive the two blocks to the Cannabis store for your daily supply. Don’t forget your woolly toque and be sure to address everyone as “Dude”.
@#143 Soggy
“Canada produces more than 2x the pollution of China per capita”
++++
I kind of look at the “per capita” stats when China is involved as a bit of a misnomer.
With 1.3 billion people you cant skew that any way you want.
Chinese industries burn a shiteload of coal but because they have 1.3 billion people they get an enviro-pass “per capita”?
Here’s a stat.
What’s the safest color of car to drive based on accidents?
Pink.
Statistically if you never want to be in an accident…buy a pink car ( and make it a Volvo just to be double safe).
@#148 The jag.
Apparently the interview was held outside on a patio at Global BCTV studio’s in Burnaby.
They had set up, cameras rolling and were interviewing when the lone man walked by and spotted Trudeau and began shouting at him.
As the protester was being hustled away he gave the Salmon Arm “Trudeau salute” that papa Trudeau made so famous.
#145 under the radar on 09.15.21 at 5:35 am
106 #98 under the radar on 09.14.21 at 7:02 pm
Only the TFSA gains are non taxable, RRSP is just a deferral.
——-
Nope.
When you take from your RRSP you pay tax. gains inside your RRSP remain tax free until you start taking out the money, then you pay tax on the funds withdrawn at your marginal rate , hence a deferral.
Not saying don’t have these , just saying what was left out.
___
Yes taxes need to be paid on withdrawals at your marginal rate, but you have quite a bit of control over how much comes out, and what your marginal rate is at the time. At least for a period of time. Taxes payable on RRSP’s are essentially unknown.
I wouldn’t call an arrangement like that a deferral. A deferral implies a set amount is due.
#127 Quintilian
#107 Shawn Allen: mile wide knowledge 1/4 inch deep
“Low borrowing rates are evidence of intense competition as opposed to monopoly power.”
NO.
Low rates are evidence of Central bankers recklessly expanding their spreadsheet.
But that aside, I made no accusation of banks overcharging on mortgage rates because of lack of competition.
The banks can make a lot charging low rates on very large loans that carry no risk.
My disdain with that bank and CMHC is that the banks take no risk, and in doing so it’s to their benefit to promote homeownership, driving demand, so that what should be a 500k mortgage has now morphed into a 1.2 mil mortgage because of a hyped-up marketing tactics they use in a symbiotic relationship they have with the RE Cartel.
Both use fluff and have it packaged bearing names of economists and pass it up as research.
People want to borrow. Blame them, not the lenders. – Garth
—–
Garth, I can’t tell you how disappointing it is to read a reply like that from you. I’ll tell you why of course, because you’ve given me the venue.
We on here appreciate your thoughts and wisdom. You often write about your life experiences, what you’ve seen, what you’ve learned. We enjoy benefiting from that life knowledge. Often it is grounded in what is right. The little snippets like you just wrote above are simplistic and could point to a bias that reflects focus on profit at all cost, regardless if it is right or wrong. Your office after all is in a bank tower, and perhaps you don’t want to bite the hand and all that…
You have written too much about “the sheeple” to pretend you don’t know clearly how what is described in the post you replied to wasn’t going to result in EXACTLY the outcome we arrived at today. And guess what? There is no doubt those who lobbied for these policies knew it well also, which is why they lobbied for it. They knew the stupid consumer would fall for it, and fat easy risk-free profits were there to scoop up.
Let me give you another example. When the Big Pharma infiltrated the FDA through staff and/or lobbying the text that governs prescriptions of opioids was ever so slightly tweaked. Well, no one MADE people take more opioids and get addicted, but they knew EXACTLY why they were making the revision to the official FDA policy – to increase their opioid prescriptions and sales many times over. To then say “no one made these people take the opioids” is nothing short than dereliction of duty of the people we hired to look out for the greater good of the people. What they have done is nothing short of criminal.
What has happened to the pile of debt, consumer, business, government is nothing short of dereliction of duty as well Garth. Just because it is profitable and helps GDP and those holding the bank shares have benefited, doesn’t make it right for the greater good. A reckoning will arrive, and as usual those who made it happen will see no consequences and by then would have been long enjoying their lobbying payoffs.
When it is time to pay for those short term profits, guess who will really end up paying for it? With lost jobs and homes and lives? The dummies we fooled into it.
And somehow this is right and acceptable in our society. Somehow our politicians won’t dare pass laws that prevent this behaviour. Fascinating.
Once again, human greed has no limits.
And that is why it is disappointing that you skirt the responsibility to the individual. I understand they are not blameless, but they certainly don’t carry the vast majority of the blame, of that there is NO DOUBT.
Being good, maintaining integrity, prioritizing people not profit is not easy. The dividends for above are not measured in the value units humanity seems to care about for some reason.
Love your display of humanity, but people are responsible for their own actions. We do not need extra regulations. We need more financial literacy. This is a my daily task. By the way, drop the cheap shots about my suggested conflict of interest because my corporate partner rents space in a ‘bank tower’ – which is actually owned by a REIT. You just blew it. – Garth
One more day before the 4 space tourists blast off into orbit.
$50 million per seat buys an “out of this world ” view orbiting the earth higher than the International Space Station.
I hope they packed lots of barf bags.
“Most Canadians don’t live in a metropolis.”
*ahem*
“ On July 1, 2020, 27.3 million people, or just over 7 in 10 Canadians (71.8%) lived in a CMA.”
Even if you exclude the smaller ones, it’s still 6/10.
A CMA is not a metropolis. It just means you live in a place where there are not too many goats. – Garth
#105 Ustabe on 09.14.21 at 7:40 pm
“I’m pretty sure…I’m not a doctor, but I’m pretty sure that if you die from cancer the cancer dies with you. That is not a loss, that’s a draw.”
Norm MacDonald
October, 1959-September, 2021
____
RIP
Also for Dusty Hill and Charlie Watts who both passed recently.
Coal to the rescue.
Probably best they didn’t get rid of all those plants just yet. I wonder if the Extinction Rebellion folks said thank you for not just letting them freeze? Or worse, not be able to charge their phones.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/15/fire-shuts-one-of-uk-most-important-power-cables-in-midst-of-supply-crunch
143 SoggyShorts on 09.15.21 at 3:48 am
#131 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.21 at 10:03 pm
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions
—————————
That’s quite a bit.
For 36 Mill people.
There are 8.3 7.7 billion souls on this planet.
Get out your abacus.
********************
My abacus is rusty and it’s late but here goes:
36m is 1/213th of 7.7b
2% is 1/50th of 100%
Canada is contributing 4.26x our “fair share”” of pollution?
And only now did I realize I should have just googled it:
https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/
Canada produces more than 2x the pollution of China per capita and that’s before we factor in how much of their pollution comes from making things we consume.
__________________________________________
Canada is a large very cold country only second in world size to Russia. Large temperature swings require massive heating requirements in the cold fall, winter and spring seasons. More logs on the fireplace please! Then we switch to a summer that can be as oppressive as the southern USA in most of the southern populated regions. Crank the AC baby! Now lets take into account the being the second largest country in the world with only 38,139899 people spread out across this vast land figure out the travel distances. Transportation between distribution points can be massive. For example in England a trip from London to Birmingham is the same distance as a trip from Toronto to Niagara Falls but it is double the travel time for them and considered a major day trip. We have people commuting from their McMansions in Niagara Falls to Toronto and they think nothing of doing it every day for five days a week. Our country is simply not an energy efficient place to live. We have massive amounts of energy so nothing has changed in the last one hundred years.
Garth, believe me. I live in Waterloo, bought a house in 2015 as a fixer upper and would love nothing more than to divest myself of the asset. However, it is nigh impossible to find decent rental properties here, and even if we could, the price of reno work has gone up and supply down (I can do a lot of minor handy stuff but am far from a skilled trades worker), meaning I still only have half a basement, am short 1.5 bathrooms, along with a multitude of other odds and ends that have me over a year behind schedule, even with WFH transforming my commute time into reno time, so a sale at this time is not an option. My wife works locally (for now) so a move into the even hintier land is not something we are considering at this time. Our teenage boys also love our misfit house and that’s not a hill I’m ready to die on with them (we have a soft spot for it as well).
We are constantly reassessing our situation and we are paying the minimum on our mortgage while maximizing TFSAs, RRSPs and unregistered investments into a diversified portfolio. Our basic house expenses are less than 10% of our gross income, with our reno fund at about another 10%, so it isn’t like we’re living paycheque to paycheque, but I crave the flexibility of being able to relocate on short notice to take advantage of work opportunies and my wife can be fairly mobile with her work. We do want to stay in southern Ontario for the good of the boys but we can feel ourselves being pulled elsewhere, even outside of Canada. As two very proud Canadians and Ontarians until a few years ago, it hurts to even think about that.
We’ll see what happens – I’ve watched my friends upgrade their houses and max out their mortgages. They all do well and have stable jobs but I don’t think much would need to happen for their hands to get tied very quickly.
Inflation now is 4.10% in Canada for the last month. Pretty soon all the dividends, interest from junk bonds, equity and REIT distributions will be negative too.
I guess Poloz was right, you will be working for free, maybe worse, you will be paying them now with high inflation, taxes, fees for banks, governments and the investor loses.
You thought they would only do this to savers, fixed income, fixed rate investors. The central banks and governments are coming for all investors, stocks, real estate and all.
#67 DON on 09.14.21 at 5:32 pm
…fuel pump…depends if you are lucky and it is easy to get at like the honda CRV’s otherwise a cool $1200 bucks. Heart attack alright.
Can’t wait for my EV purchase…
____
Fuel pumps are a rip – especially the OEM canister assy’s that you must buy unless you can think outside the box.
I’ve taken to splicing those generic 99.00 Walbro pumps into the OEM canister for a cheap fix. Works good, and beats shelling out 700-1K for the OE assembly when all you actually need is just a new pump.
#158 George
That’s the point George!
The point is to ensure there really is no safe store of value.
Here is Alan Greenspan on “Gold and Economic Freedom” back in 1966
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”
There will never again be a gold standard. Thank goodness. – Garth
Vladtor # 125,
“Forget about this.
Every countries (except very few of them – like Russia, Brazil…) should pay us FOREST TAX.
Canada don’t need to pay carbon tax. Our forests absorbing 100 times more carbon compare with 2% carbon emissions. We need to exit from Paris agreement immediately.”
—————————-
Shhhh, its a seekwit….how else can you guilt Canadians into paying fake taxes on every aspect of their lives!
Emotions are the tool of the system.
There will never again be a gold standard. Thank goodness. – Garth
No doubt Garth.
The point was not the Gold Standard returning.
The point was why it was removed (to allow deficit spending) and how Government ensures that in reality they control all the levers of wealth and can easily come after any wealth accumulated. You’ve highlighted this repeatedly. Taxation is obviously the key way the come after it, with ease.
This is where you come in to try to navigate and minimize the impact with advice and strategy.
We talk about Real Estate and how it can lose value. So can investments, obviously. Looking at that Evergrande Group post someone made here, it is interesting how they’ve lost 80% of value so quickly. Even more interesting is the demands of investors to “have their money back”. Could Evergrande Group be the first domino in the next crisis perhaps?
It seems no one has tolerance for losses. Perhaps this is why governments have spent 20T – to let everyone keep their numerical value intact, even if the buying power of it decreases that same 80% for example.
As for Gold…well…I find it very funny that the value of nothing that is BitCoin is worth 25x an actual Gold Coin.
Funny indeed.
Perhaps it’s worth noting that what’s old is new again is a theme that humanity likes very much. Once these FIAT currencies run their course and collapse under their own weight potentially, how will their replacement’s value be assured by those who try to sell us on their value? I wonder.
@#141 facts on 09.14.21 at 11:48 pm
#128 KLNR on 09.14.21 at 9:33 pm
@#124 facts on 09.14.21 at 8:59 pm
#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
Peterson’s intellectual quality and integrity is in an entirely different universe above “this”.
–
JP is a deeply disturbed dude.
guy is in a really dark place.
–
We are all in a really dark place.
Some can see it, some can’t.
–
you may want to get tested for B12 deficiency.
Bdwy on 09.14.21 at 8:49 pm
For Don G,
Do you like centro, olas atlas or suburbs or other?
What about matz vs pv?
Got the best taco ive ever tasted in mazatalan , tipped the guy a few bux , when i went back a couple days later he piled so much meat it was comical. Last time there i had a one hour interview to get my dog into a hotel for tbe night. Thinking of a year round rental down that way.
±+++++++++
Definately prefer Maz over PV area. It’s the colonial city on the ocean that makes it more appealing. We’ve always lived in Centro, close to Olas Altas, as it has a European feel and is very walkable. The downside is that it can be very noisy with party Pulmonías, party Aurigas (the little red trucks) and barking dogs everywhere. Mazatlan has recently become the most popular tourist destination for Mexicans and they love noise. The trick is to find a quiet spot amongst all that. Many people prefer north of Centro (Golden Zone or Cerritos) as it can be easier to find something quiet. If you’re planning for a year it might be best to try different areas out to see what suites you best. When you stay for longer periods of time you soon realize that the beaches are great but only one component of what the area has to offer.
IHTD9 fuel pump tip remineded to reply.
@DON the Lordco discount is not a fixed %, Sea Foam (essential snake oil for occasional use with carburated engines) shelf price is 12.50, account price is 8.50ish
Bosch fuel pump (external) list at 350, account price was 220.
Bonda from Amazon, 15 bucks in a surprisingly small can was 15 bucks delivered to door. Lordco cn at twice the size was 18 bucks and picked up onmy way to the yacht.
Cheers, R
Bank Deposits and Gold Standard?
From 161and 158 George
Quoting Alan Greespan in 1966 “If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods.”
Garth 2021: There will never again be a gold standard. Thank goodness. – Garth
**************************************
We are SO far away from the scenario that Greenspan mentioned in 1966 that it seems impossible today.
In 1966 one could imagine a run on bank deposits where people hoarded paper U.S. dollars.
Today that seems very unlikely. You would have a hard time spending huge amounts of paper dollars today. Very suspicious.
The economy has gone electronic. You move untold amounts of bank deposits electronically instantly. Imagine a corporation trying to do a deal today with millions of paper dollars. It would not happen.
The banks collectively are safe as far as there can be no run on deposits. We can take our deposits out of one bank but they will simply end up in another bank. If you buy more than a couple thousand worth of gold from anyone including gold dealers you will do so by transferring a bank deposit from your account to theirs.
Far from nearing its end days the U.S. dollar (and by extension the Canadian dollar) is just hitting its stride. More and more transactions are financial in nature and also electronic. The Money Supply is growing rapidly with no end in sight.
Yes, there is a slight erosion in purchasing power over time but that has not and will not in our lifetimes slow down U.S. and Canadian dollars as our currency.
#23 Dave on 09.14.21 at 3:16 pm
Kelowna? Are you nuts? Who will move there now with the constant threat of forest fires, potential evacuation and smoke? I think the whole interior of BC is in for a reset.
*********************
Turn off the news. Sheesh.
#163 Blacksheep on 09.15.21 at 10:37 am
Vladtor # 125,
“Forget about this.
Every countries (except very few of them – like Russia, Brazil…) should pay us FOREST TAX.
Canada don’t need to pay carbon tax.
——–
Thank you… someone with some common sence.
I wrote our scamming government demanding a carbon cheque for all my trees. Acres of them.
And Kanadas the prime target for carbon tax, because they know most kanuckles are suckers and fall for this type of guff.
I mentioned this a few times here.
#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.21 at 8:20 am
Chinese industries burn a shiteload of coal but because they have 1.3 billion people they get an enviro-pass “per capita”?
Here’s a stat.
What’s the safest color of car to drive based on accidents?
Pink.
Statistically if you never want to be in an accident…buy a pink car ( and make it a Volvo just to be double safe).
____
Back when I was into drag racing and the internet was young – there was smack talk among racers on the web forums. Turbo Hondas were getting fast at that point. The older guys with 500+ CI BBC’s and 300+ shots were running 8’s, the fastest Honda guys were running high 10’s.
But – the VTEC motors put out a lot of power per litre, the Honda boys would say. They are much better engines, so technologically advanced! Those old junk pushrod V-8’s are obsolete!!
But, they still got destroyed on the strip.
Gross numbers are what counts, anyone focusing on ratios is making excuses. Hence the time honoured racer’s maxim: “There’s no replacement for displacement”.
Love your display of humanity, but people are responsible for their own actions. We do not need extra regulations. We need more financial literacy. This is a my daily task. By the way, drop the cheap shots about my suggested conflict of interest because my corporate partner rents space in a ‘bank tower’ – which is actually owned by a REIT. You just blew it. – Garth
Garth,
“people are responsible for their own actions”?
What are corporations but people?
Why aren’t they responsible for their actions toward these people?
Why is it OK for corporations to create addictive products?
Why is it OK for corporations to hire scientistic to make food addictive to try and break the barrier of willpower people have against consuming their products?
Why is it OK for all this constant raping of my eyes and ears with all this marketing that I DID NOT ask to see?
Why is it OK for Big Pharma to push FDA drug rules in a direction that will clearly benefit their bottom line, and again entangle the consumer in addiction and dependence?
Why is it OK for corporations to borrow resources from the future? Polite the resource we have now?
Why is it OK for governments to borrow money from future generations?
What is this psychopathic PULL-FORWARD short term thinking that we are in total support of apparently?
“people are responsible for their own actions”?
Responsible?
At what point will we stop applying responsibility only to the individual at the end of the chain?
If you put a pack of cigarettes in a cell of 100 “inmates”, what do you think the outcome will be?
Did those “inmates” ask for the cigarettes?
The opioids?
The poison food?
Did they ask for the sales pitch to tell them how cool they would look commuting to work each day in their crew-cab HD Diesel pickup truck with 20,000lbs towing capacity?
You forgot the apology part. I strongly advise it. – Garth
#115
Ok so if Canada generates 2% of total and lets say most of that is from extracting oil and gas and we export a large portion of that how much are we really responsible for in terms of consumption? That 2% number could be much less and is probably more in line with our 36MM people especially compared to other northern climate countries. Where would one find those numbers?
#168 Shawn Allen
Actually I find what Alan Greenspan says in that paper very applicable in terms of warnings to what we are seeing today – specifically deficit spending and the confiscation of wealth from us now and from future generations.
Debt is the addictive drug that keeps the party going. But just like drugs, we develop a tolerance for it, and more is needed to keep the high going. Is the increase endless, or can the patient over dose?
No doubt as you note, the risk of a run on the bank is one way to look at it. But what is a “run on the bank”? Does it have to happen only on the deposits as we imagine it? Is there no other way to make a bank insolvent? To make a run on the bunk? Have we not seen that very scenario play out during the GFC? Wasn’t that a run on the bank’s liquidity?
The point here is that debt continues to grow and increase significantly. We thought it was crazy during GFC. Well, if GFC was crazy, we’ve just arrived at insane.
20T? I won’t be shocked if it is 40T when all the beans are counted.
The point of Greenspan’s quote is about deficit spending being uncontrolled. I think we’ve seen a whole new level of that as Canadians, obviously. Money supply 5x. Record deficit. Insane.
There is a very friend fluffy “loan shark” doing all the lending. Wonder if he can ever turn…well…not so friendly and fluffy.
And the is what I believe makes what Greenspan said valid 55 years later.
#149 the Jaguar on 09.15.21 at 8:06 am
All you anti oil types can now just climb back into your SUV’s or Tacoma’s and drive the two blocks to the Cannabis store for your daily supply. Don’t forget your woolly toque and be sure to address everyone as “Dude”.
—
Wow. You need to work on sharpening those stereotypes. Currently they reveal much about what you are afraid of. May I jump on my bike and politely address people as sir or ma’am or is that too confusing?
Anybody who thinks we could run a modern economy on a Gold Standard monetary system, clearly has lost touch with reality.
The problem is not FIAT currency, it is the abuse and politicization of the system.
Central Bankers are political appointees; the stability of economy is only incidental to the primary goal of getting their masters re-elected.
#148 the Jaguar on 09.15.21 at 7:19 am
@#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.21 at 10:19 pm
Thanks CEF. It remains under review for authenticity.
Read the advance polls are significantly up from last election. In a pandemic that’s a ‘leading indicator’.
************
The ‘lone heckler’ on the grassy knoll.
Last year the BC election…high turn out at the advanced polls due to virus but overall low turnout for the election as a whole.
I am betting on low turn out. Busy time of the year…but I would like to be really really wrong.
@Russ
Cheers…have a good day on the water whether sailing or puttering around.
@IHCTD9
thank you for that info…I had the same thought regarding the fuel pump part.
Inflation up yup.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-is-the-highest-since-2003-in-canada-123839869.html
No doubt in my mind its way higher than 4 points.
When ya build stuff and repair buildings and vehicles like I do…WOW.
And for the sillies that want more free money…the guys on the margin this hurts you most. It just doesn’t show up the day you get your free loot. A couple years down the road you will see your UBI is sinking fast.
Poorer folk or fix income peeps get hurt the worst.
As they say “there’s no free lunch”
China’s largest property developer having serious troubles and causing protests outside their offices. China’s Lehman brothers moment ‘gradually then suddenly’.
PS I just bought a side of beef from my farmer Bud.
a few years ago $750 now $1,500.
Ya gotta keep up, or cut costs and or starve when your dealing with guys like T2.
I LMAO when I saw that trailer in Parksville. Nuts.
I Guess my holdings are worth 8 digits easily now, by that metric.
That things worth $275k max.
#124 facts on 09.14.21 at 8:59 pm
#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
Peterson’s intellectual quality and integrity is in an entirely different universe above “this”.
——
Go watch Peterson’s “debate” with Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek called “Happiness: Capitalism vs Marxism.”
Peterson admitted to not having read anything by Marx (despite his constant railing against so-called Cultural Marxism) until he agreed to the debate. He read the Communist Manifesto in the few days before the debate, and then showed the world he doesn’t understand Marx at all, as evidenced by his armchair understanding of such ideas as “worker exploitation.”
Like him or hate him, if you don’t understand Marx’s most basic concepts and agree to a debate regarding them, are you really an intellectual? Or are you a charlatan? Hmm.
——
#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.21 at 6:52 pm
@#72 XGRO & chill
“Clearly you have not read this:”
+++
Yawn.
Another wordy anti Peterson screed authored by another anonymous someone who would sell their soul to the Devil to have Peterson’s money, popularity and fame.
——
Ad hominem attack, contains zero legitimate criticism of his article.
117 Dragonfly
149 jag
158 James
All good comments
143 Soggy – thanks for this link
It is interesting to see all the middle east petro producing countries that are high on the per capita list.
Also the western euro countries that are quite low.
Each country has its strengths and challenges.
@#149 the Jaguar on 09.15.21 at 8:06 am
Ha! I actually posted my link to the UK power supply issue before yours with Eric Nuttall’s column was up. He says it far better – it does come down to energy ignorance.
What so many of the renewable/energy lobby don’t seem to grasp – or at least, claim not to – is the fact that there simply is no viable replacement for carbon-based sources on the current scale. And that the vast majority of carbon energy backers are not evil planet-wrecking greedheads, but people who understand how THINGS work and have a highly pragmatic view of the world.
That’s why I smile wryly every time I load over a 100 tons of Jet A into the beast. (Call it a nominal 125,000 litres depending on the specific gravity of the day.) That’s one aircraft, one flight, at one company. I don’t find it amusing because I’m not aware of the issues of climate change or take pleasure in releasing the burnt remains of dead dinosaurs into the atmosphere.
I find it amusing because I know there’s no other way to get everyone’s Amazon widgets to them via air other than burning kerosene to do so. No number of idle wind turbines or solar panels or Tesla batteries will achieve what people want.
And want it, they very much do. More and more, not less. No way anyone is going to actually sacrifice their quality of life. Gotta have the massive house, cars, “plant-based” processed food, lattes and iPhone. A blue box and composting is about as far as most are willing to go. Alberta just gets to be the unfortunate scapegoat.
I find the average greenie’s take on climate change to be closely parallel to that of socialism. The socialists want everything, but everyone else to pay for it. The greens want climate change to slow or reverse, but everyone else should be the ones to make it happen.
Recognizing this, I choose to capitalize on it unapologetically.
The poster regrading 4.10% inflation in Canada. It seems that is the highest since 2003. I remember back in 2003 there was a deep downturn after 2001 recession and interest rates were much higher 3.00% to 3.25% and Canada 10 year 10 bond was 4.10%.
I made it my life goal is spend alot less money. I estimated that over the last 20 to 25 years, I have spent at least $500,000 less on gas, car insurance, smokes, alcohol, restaurants. Inflation is having a big impact only on people that are impulsive and can’t save their money. Basically, children and people that have never grown up.
#171 IHCTD9 on 09.15.21 at 11:05 am
displacment
—
I dont know about that displacement thing. I remember when when f1 hondas 4cyl turbo engine, was chrashing 2x bigger reg aspirated engine and with 2x or 3x more cylinders, year after year. only fare comparison output per unit of engine, cyl vs cyl, liter vs liter, not engine to engine.
here it is “half of the engine beating full engine” .
https://youtu.be/vtdtGgf1BF0?t=1407
You forgot the apology part. I strongly advise it. – Garth
My apologies always come with hugs.
Those aren’t legal anymore.
#96 S.Bby on 09.14.21 at 6:59 pm
#85 Dragonfly 58
Canada generates only 2% of world carbon emissions
—————————
That’s quite a bit.
For 36 Mill people.
There are 8.3 billion souls on this planet.
Get out your abacus.
———————————————————–
Then get out your data for average temperatures for Canada in Jan.
“Ya gotta start somewhere” is a familiar refrain. Perhaps the eco/climate warriors could turn their attention to China/ India. Coal. really really bad, they both build hundreds of plants in the past few years.
You could turn Canada completely off like a light switch and it wouldn’t affect anything. The national Liberal woke self flagellation is heartwarming though.
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/despite-paris-agreement-china-india-continue-build-coal-plants/
#171 IHCTD9 on 09.15.21 at 11:05 am
#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.21 at 8:20 am
Terrible analogy although I see how it could be attractive. If a developed country with a very high per Capita GDP cant’t lead the way, then how can we ever ask China (developing and moderate per Capita GDP) to participate?
Doesn’t hold water.
On the topic of China, while the new rules on internet companies, gaming and real estate are draconian, they are getting the leaks out of their economy while we dawdle. Take note.
@184
That’s a bingo for BillyBob.
#74 Purple Wave
”
mmmm, with all the anti-immigration rhetoric lately (including in the comments here) and seeing all those purple signs everywhere I really wonder why I moved here 12 years ago, created a business, paid taxes, and employed people.
I thought Canada was immunized against the stupidity we saw in the US and Europe, I guess I was wrong. Oh well”
——————————————————–
Economics is all about supply/demand. More people = more demand. There are all kinds of constraints on supply, therefore, contributing to the skyrocketing increase in prices for homes and rentals. The millions of Canadians who have seen their rent double, can’t find a decent place to rent, let alone buy, are suffering. Where is your compassion for those millions of Canadians?
What should be a discussion about economics, supply/demand, the logistics of renovating and building new and adapting unemployed Canadians to jobs in demand … instead is turned into virtual-signalling name-calling.
Anti-vax and anti-immigrant. You must be pro-Max. – Garth
Instead of everyone arguing over who should return to the dark ages to ‘save the planet’, maybe we should just turn to the only form of energy that will make a difference.
Nuclear.
If only the ‘environmentalists’ hadn’t fear mongered against this clean, safe energy for the last 50 years, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
#176 Quintilian on 09.15.21 at 11:24 am
Anybody who thinks we could run a modern economy on a Gold Standard monetary system, clearly has lost touch with reality.
The problem is not FIAT currency, it is the abuse and politicization of the system.
Central Bankers are political appointees; the stability of economy is only incidental to the primary goal of getting their masters re-elected.
——-
Isn’t Greenspan saying that the gold standard was means of prevention against abuse and politicization of the system? Against the very problems you note?
Why do you think the politicians removed the safeguard?
How do you fix it now so it doesn’t get abused and politicized? Please, outline the plan, now that you’ve identified the problem.
Funny how collusion between CBs is perfectly legit strategy in today’s world. No potential for any abuse there, right?
#184 BillyBob on 09.15.21 at 12:03 pm
@#149 the Jaguar on 09.15.21 at 8:06 am
Why do you think there is no viable alternative to kerosene (insofar as that is true)?
@#182 XGROW and chill
“….contains zero legitimate criticism of his article.”
++++
An article that went on and on and on about what a fraud Peterson is?
Pffft.
I would read Petersons opinions any day of the week rather than some second rate newspaper hack trying to sell fish wrapper or gain a tiny ounce of fame by denigrating Peterson.
Another in a long line of hacks riding the coattails of a hugely popular or famous person.
Peterson is well known and highly regarded.
Can the hack that spewed forth that diatribe claim the same?
By George and Banks
“The point of Greenspan’s quote is about deficit spending being uncontrolled.” etc. at 174
*********************
My point is that unlike in 1966 it is basically impossible for the population to remove deposits from banks. One way is to do that and keep it in paper cash. But paper cash is almost unspendable in large quantities today so not going to happen. Take it out and buy a house or gold? Your deposit can leave your bank but never leaves the banking system.
The ONLY practical way the population can reduce bank deposits is to stop borrowing and pay back loans. That will reduce total bank deposits and total bank loans. Don’t hold your breath.
But you can do your part. Pay back any loans you have and do not borrow anything. By George…
#186 NoName on 09.15.21 at 12:10 pm
#171 IHCTD9 on 09.15.21 at 11:05 am
displacment
—
I dont know about that displacement thing. I remember when when f1 hondas 4cyl turbo engine, was chrashing 2x bigger reg aspirated engine and with 2x or 3x more cylinders, year after year. only fare comparison output per unit of engine, cyl vs cyl, liter vs liter, not engine to engine.
here it is “half of the engine beating full engine” .
https://youtu.be/vtdtGgf1BF0?t=1407
____
There are lots of smaller engines that make more power than bigger engines, especially where special fuels and power adders are mixed in.
The NRFD maxim is about gross output, and comes from the fact that the bigger engine with the same VE and identical support will ALWAYS make more power than the smaller equal engine. It’s just math, more lb-min worth of air you can stuff thru the engine, the more power you can make. Bigger motors eat more air than smaller ones that are built the same.
An ant might be able to lift 100X its own body weight, but it’s still going to get flattened by a meandering elephant that can lift only 2X. Gross output is real world power to the tire, HP/L (specific output) is for arguing that my Weed Whacker is more powerful than your Viper GTS.
Instead of everyone arguing over who should return to the dark ages to ‘save the planet’, maybe we should just turn to the only form of energy that will make a difference.
Nuclear.
If only the ‘environmentalists’ hadn’t fear mongered against this clean, safe energy for the last 50 years, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
—–
Where will you put the nuclear waste that lasts 100s, 1000s, 10,000 of years? Longer than the cement structures in which it is stored can possibly withstand.
How will you decommission the reactors that are filled with extremely high levels of radiation accumulated over decades of operation?
Nuclear power can be a solution, if the molten salt reactors that are reported to consume current stockpiles of nuclear waste can become reality. Perhaps. As that would become a solution for our current nuclear problem. I recently read that this is no longer the case with these small reactors. Apparently they produce less waste, but since I’ve been around for a while I no longer believe the promises, but want to see actual proof.
Otherwise, the truth of Nuclear is that it is just pulling resources forward from the future, and deferring the consequences of generation to future generations to deal with and clean up.
Yet another example of how humans can’t help their greed, costs be damned.
There will never again be a gold standard. Thank goodness. – Garth
???????????
Bitcoin standard?
#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.21 at 12:58 pm
————————–
With you crowde.
Its simple ya read an opinion from who ever.
Then you use you own sense and logic.
Way yo much white noise everywhere only to confuse the masses…
The more crap spewed out there the less I listen. To many fools trying to make their mark.
Peterson has tons of valid points…
If only the ‘environmentalists’ hadn’t fear mongered against this clean, safe energy for the last 50 years, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
—–
By the way, ‘environmentalists’?!
I think the Japanese Nuclear industry did a splendid job of that themselves.
So did Metropolitan Edison at Three Mile Island.
Are you going to blame the ‘environmentalists’ for bringing attention to this self-inflicted list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents
Notice I’m not even bringing the big one up, but you really should watch the HBO mini-series. Loss for words really at quality of what Craig Mazin delivered.
#193 By George, you’ve got it! :
“Please, outline the plan, now that you’ve identified the problem.”
Let it run its course. The addicts will have to hit bottom.
It won’t be an orderly check in at the rehabilitation center.
Similarly, you cannot pull away the gambler from the table while she is winning.
#173 Albertaguy in AB on 09.15.21 at 11:17 am
#115
Ok so if Canada generates 2% of total and lets say most of that is from extracting oil and gas and we export a large portion of that how much are we really responsible for in terms of consumption? That 2% number could be much less and is probably more in line with our 36MM people especially compared to other northern climate countries. Where would one find those numbers?
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Excellent point.
Fukushima, the result of one of the greatest natural disasters in history, resulted in 1 death from radiation and about 2,200 from the evacuation.
Chernobyl, the result of an unnatural disaster called communist central planning, killed 50 people:
“According to the official, internationally recognised death toll, just 31 people died as an immediate result of Chernobyl while the UN estimates that only 50 deaths can be directly attributed to the disaster.”
Gen IV nuclear actually might use nuclear ‘waste’ as fuel. Read up on that instead of watching Netflix maybe.
As usual, the ‘greens’ still fear mongering about the safest and cleanest energy known to mankind.
#202 Quintilian on 09.15.21 at 1:23 pm
Similarly, you cannot pull away the gambler from the table while she is winning.
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That’s a good way of putting it. It’s also a foresight that maybe they’re going to keep sitting at the table “winning” until they’re not – when they suddenly own an illiquid lump worth less than what they paid, and the exit door slammed shut months ago.
#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.21 at 12:58 pm
@#182 XGROW and chill
“….contains zero legitimate criticism of his article.”
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An article that went on and on and on about what a fraud Peterson is?
Pffft.
I would read Petersons opinions any day of the week rather than some second rate newspaper hack trying to sell fish wrapper or gain a tiny ounce of fame by denigrating Peterson.
Another in a long line of hacks riding the coattails of a hugely popular or famous person.
Peterson is well known and highly regarded.
Can the hack that spewed forth that diatribe claim the same?
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The article I quoted is cited by Noam Chomsky when he is asked about Jordan Peterson. You may have heard of him.
You are free to think what you want, but any thinking person will automatically dismiss your opinions if they aren’t rooted in facts, and consist entirely of ad hominem attacks.
#24 facts on 09.14.21 at 3:17 pm
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Won’t happen. Progressive MSM won’t follow that narrative even though Pierre was an enabler of residential schools. So in plain site we can see the narrative is cancel culture and wokeness. If it wasn’t so his statue that was partially CCP funded would be toppled too.
Maxima, our family, my wife and I with my son and duaghter, have taken out of our own pockets an extra $26,000 in just Ontario’s health tax since 2004 brought in by Ontario McGuinty Liberals. We have also paid an extra $65,000 in chiropractor, eyecare, other heath services that was delisted from the healthcare OHIP in Ontario since 2004. Thanks alot Liberals the supposedly healthcare champions of Canada and the enforcement of the health Canada act.
So we have paid an extra $91,000 total since in 17 years since the Ontario McGuinty, Sorbara Liberals did the cuts the healthcare in Ontario. Well, to make this worse they don’t even allow you to get some tax relief through some tax deduction of these extra healthcare services costs we had to pay extra for.
Well, even more worse, to pay for $91,000 in extra heath taxes, healthcare services we would never had to pay before 2004, my wife and I had to work for, earn $140,000 of gross income which takes us 5,500 hours both working at our employer equivalent to 16.25 months both us working 40 hour weeks of 138 weeks straight from our jobs. We had to still pay our already high income taxes which is at least $37,000 a year and high property taxes of $4,500 a year.
Liberals don’t understand or don’t care. It is not just time we lost but our money we lost as we keep paying for their irresponsible fiscal and financial mess of high taxes, high debt, high deficits, high reckless spending and massive social programs for a massive cost overruns, corruption. I am sick and tired of all the BS Liberal hypocrisy.
Thanks for the blog Garth
I enjoy reading about your life accomplishments!
I look around at all the doom and gloom on this blog and I see tons of opportunities in the world.
I think people miss the point that we all have to make our own opportunities.
Life is not all about money, it’s about learning life skills that’s what volunteering does.