A September pause?

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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It’s been a pretty awesome ride in the equity markets this year with the S&P 500 and TSX both up around 19%. I think it’s safe to say this year’s returns have surprised a lot of investors (not us!) and now we’re hearing a growing chorus of ‘experts’ calling for a big drop in the markets soon. Many point to a peak in central bank stimulus as a potential catalyst for the drop.

We’ve been saying to clients for a little while now that the markets are overdue for a consolidation/pullback so we would not be surprised to see an uptick in volatility over the next few months. But, as I’ll outline, any weakness could prove to be a great buying opportunity given the very constructive macro and fundamental backdrop.

On the central bank front, the Bank of Canada was first out of the gate by cutting their monthly asset purchases back in the spring. Then the ECB followed suit by announcing this week that they are reducing their quarterly asset purchases, in part due to a 10 year high in inflation. The focus is now turning to the Federal Reserve, who has started to signal that a ‘tapering’ of their monthly bond buying program is coming. Currently the Fed is purchasing US$120 billion of bonds every month and this is likely to be cut back in the coming months. Given that central bank stimulus has been providing a strong tonic for the economy and equity markets, some are pointing to these actions as a harbinger for a big drop in the markets.

Monetary Stimulus from Leading Central Banks

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Another short-term headwind for the equity markets is seasonality. Historically, September and October have been volatile months for the equity markets. Below is a chart that shows the average monthly price returns for the S&P 500 going back to 1928. September has historically been the weakest month for the equity markets with the S&P 500 down on average 1%.

S&P 500 Average Monthly Price Returns

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

So there’s definitely a few near-term headwinds for the equity markets that could lead to an uptick in volatility, but don’t lose the forest for the trees. There remain a number of positives for the economy and stock market and why we remain steadfast bulls.

First, the vaccines are effective and more and more people are getting vaccinated every day. Currently 41% of the world population has received at least one vaccine dose and roughly 30 million doses are being administered daily. This vaccine rollout will, over time, help to slowly get control of the pandemic and allow us to get back to ‘normal’ or something close to normal.

As this unfolds, we see the US/global economy strengthening with more job gains and increased consumer spending. This is why the IMF is projecting the global economy to grow 6% this year and 4.9% in 2022, which if realized, would be the strongest economic growth seen in decades.

Second, as the economy rebounds so are corporate earnings. I’ve been writing a lot about corporate profits recently and below is a chart of S&P 500 earnings. Over the last 12 months the S&P 500 has delivered earnings of $178/share, which is up from $146/share last year when the pandemic first hit. For this full-year earnings are projected to rise to $203/share and $221 for next year. Higher corporate profits is a key factor behind our bullish view.

S&P 500 Trailing Earnings

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Finally, I believe we’ve just started a new expansion cycle, which based on history, suggests a number of years of economic growth. Since 1950, expansions periods – characterized by rising job growth/consumer spending and positive GDP growth – last on average 23 quarters or roughly 6 years.

I believe the US/global recession ended last year and that a new expansion cycle has commenced. So, if history repeats, we should see the US/global economy growing for another 5-6 years before getting worried about the next recession.

Duration of US Expansion Periods Since 1950

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

To sum up, equity markets have been rocking since last March so we’re probably due for a bit of a breather. But we remain steadfast bulls and see more gains ahead. So block out the noise from the ‘experts’ on CNBC or your cousin Vinny talking about the high CAPE ratio and stick to the plan.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

78 comments ↓

#1 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 09.11.21 at 9:17 am

Cue the steerage section decrying timing the market!

Don’t all these Finance PhDs know that any movements during market pullbacks are simply opportunistic rebalancing?

Kudos on your thesis defense on the prior week’s TI call.

#2 Dharma Bum on 09.11.21 at 9:23 am

Mmmmmmmmm……market stim-u-lay-shunnnnn………

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw2t3tRUA84

#3 Stealth on 09.11.21 at 9:35 am

Thanks Ryan, your argument makes sense.

As you think about future writing material for the blog, lots of people have conversed with me about where do you keep cash while waiting to deploy. I know it is not an exciting point to write about but for some reason consumes lots of energy and time. For example, mutual fund savings account tickers but they have high buy/ sell fees. Moving to some online bank hisa but pain in the …
Buying etfs representing cash equivalents but also have at least sell fees. Very short term bonds but ….
Plus some brokerages pay no interest on cash deposits.
Then why keep cash at all, why time the market, less than inflation…
One person could’t grasp all of this and decided to Hold physical gold instead of cash in the short term. (Haven’t talked with him since)

In any case no need to do anything except consider this boring but widely discussed topic for both investors waiting and more likely other folks who keep most of their accounts in these categories so probably a large chunk of the population.

Thanks

#4 O'TOOLE on 09.11.21 at 9:35 am

Hey hurtin’ Albertans!

There’s no September pause in my love for you :)

I’m just too busy in Ontario to have time for you. Sorry.

But remember, I HAVE A PLAN for Alberta, and I’ll tell you all about it after you vote me back in again in 2026.

And I promise that all of you who lose your $100k jobs there will have lots of opportunities to get a new $45K job VERY VERY SOON!

So just ignore Max and the Mavericks, OK!

Thanks, I knew I could count on you!

#5 O'TOOLE on 09.11.21 at 9:38 am

Hey hurtin’ Albertans!

Ooops- forgot to mention, keep Kenney locked up, alright?

#6 Woke up this morning... on 09.11.21 at 9:40 am

Like shooting fish in a barrel.

Central Banks always to the rescue.

Easy money Baby!

#7 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.21 at 9:55 am

Stealth “ Thanks Ryan, your argument makes sense.

As you think about future writing material for the blog, lots of people have conversed with me about where do you keep cash while waiting to deploy. I know it is not an exciting point to write about but for some reason consumes lots of energy and time.”

Great idea! I’ll add it to my list and try to address in future posts. – Ryan L

#8 TurnerNation on 09.11.21 at 10:09 am

No province has a plan for fully ‘back to normal’.
The next step of the global rollout is underway: putting every human into the Blockchain.
That’s why the mandates are being targeted one group at a time. Slowly. The passports are permanent global control. The only possible solution to CV right?

The only possible “solution” to 9.11 was given as loss of our rights. Unlimited detention clauses. Secret trials. Endless security theatre at the airports. Secretive no-fly lists. See the pattern here? What do you think the next event will bring for us?

What’s next?
– The Bank of Canada is saving its developed E-currency for the next ‘crisis’.
– UBI. Everything old is new again. In Soviet Kanada they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.

— As always keep an eye on Food Supply. This is WW3. Supply lines have been cut.
Comrade are you enjoying global communism? The world fell that cold week, March 2020.

.Food shortages ‘permanent’ and days of full choice of items over, Britons warned (independent.co.uk)

—- Travel slowly being phased out. Wait till the 4th, 5th, etc. Then the rolls of eligible travellers will wain.

.France bans unvaccinated American travelers (cnn.com)

.UK prepares for ‘mix and match’ Covid vaccine booster programme (financialtimes.com)

#9 Tarot Card on 09.11.21 at 10:24 am

Thanks for the blog Garth
Thanks for the post Ryan

I agree with you buy on the dip, but I am sure you are aware as Garth has posted many times your clients are close to fully invested I believe he said less than 5 percent in cash, have less than one percent, so how would you buy on dips.

I called my broker and said let’s sell some stocks and buy back on the dip
His answer was you cannot time the market.

For me I wanted to sell oil stocks at the high a few months ago and sure enough they all dropped.
And sure enough I had no cash to buy on the dip
And now they are all higher again.

So how do you buy on dips if your fully invested?

Have a great weekend everyone!

#10 TurnerNation on 09.11.21 at 10:39 am

In my pathetic workplace RSP I’ve moving more into bonds, fixed income funds each day – for the last two weeks.

What’s really going :

–Alberta: But CBC said the health system was near collapse? (And its not like anyone had 2 years to fix this right…)

https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/br/Page17594.aspx?fbclid=IwAR1A_znXlvbVGEaztVazHkLgjt_Ui3wHENEhNenL0wLoSThMs1J34eSAAEU
“AHS has about 8,500 acute care beds across the province – 98.6 per cent of those beds are open and available for patients.
AHS has about 1,200 emergency department care spaces across the province. Of those, 98.6 per cent are open and available”

—-
—USA: it’s heating up now. This how it will fall. Will things become so bad that external – UN of course – forces be brought in?

.De Blasio Threatens To Withhold NYPD Wages If Cops Defy ‘Vax-Or-Test’ Order (gothamist.com)


— The World. Permanent Rolling Economic And Social Lockdowns- until more of the world is re-made.
Again it’s not like they’ve had 2 years to expand hospitals right?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/denmark-ends-covid-restrictions/2021/09/10/6d6a762e-1210-11ec-baca-86b144fc8a2d_story.html
“Even in Denmark, health officials have stressed that the restrictions could return if cases and hospitalizations once again rise to dangerous levels.
He has also warned of a resurgence in other seasonal respiratory viruses — which coronavirus measures had mostly quashed — that could add pressure to the health-care system.”

…….
— Travel may become once again only for the rich. (The climate you see). Given our elite global rulers play the Long Game, keeps an eye.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bill-gates-goes-buying-spree-after-divorce-acquires-controlling-interest-four-seasons
“Bill went on a buying spree and acquired controlling interest in the Four Seasons luxury hotel group.
Gates increased his stake to 71.25% from 47.5%.”

#11 Joe on 09.11.21 at 10:51 am

What about when the Central Banks stop injecting 1.15T daily into reverse repos? This is pretty massive daily injection of liquidity to keep rates from spiking.

#12 Quintilian on 09.11.21 at 10:59 am

“So, if history repeats, we should see the US/global economy growing for another 5-6 years before getting worried about the next recession.”

I could be said that,” although history does not repeat itself it does rhyme”. However, there would have to be some remnants of similarity of the past carried into the present.

The peak of the expansion cycle ends with excesses in higher prices, higher wages, higher interest rates etc.

Recessions wring out these excesses by reducing demand, and set the conditions for a subsequent expansion period.

This semi predicable and historical precedent has been disrupted by excessive credit expansion and the suppression of the contraction cycle.

When in history were interest rates kept below inflation during an expansion phase of the business cycle as the case has been since 2008?

Borrowed demand from the future, excessive debt and all the current aberrations make history an unreliable guide for forecasting the future.

#13 Flop... on 09.11.21 at 11:34 am

As a Manchester United supporter, my new investment strategy is to put $1000 into my TFSA each time Cristiano Ronaldo scores.

Already had to put 2k in this morning.

Stop passing him the ball…

M47BC

#14 Paddy on 09.11.21 at 11:35 am

Can’t one just tap into there secured/unsecured LOC to buy into a dip? I know there’s a lot of boomers on here with large untapped LOC to the tune of 100K…..oh wait, you probably already tapped it for your basement dwelling millennial child for a downpayment on crappy overpriced GTA/YVR home….oh well..aren’t children wonderful!!!

#15 Pumpkin Spice Realtor on 09.11.21 at 11:37 am

Thanks for mentioning the lovely upcoming season, Ryan!

Sales will be booming, everyone – gimme a call right now and I’ll help you outbid all those other blind offers.

Don’t miss out on the home of your dreams!

#16 DON on 09.11.21 at 12:13 pm

#12 Quintilian on 09.11.21 at 10:59 am
“So, if history repeats, we should see the US/global economy growing for another 5-6 years before getting worried about the next recession.”

I could be said that,” although history does not repeat itself it does rhyme”. However, there would have to be some remnants of similarity of the past carried into the present.

The peak of the expansion cycle ends with excesses in higher prices, higher wages, higher interest rates etc.

Recessions wring out these excesses by reducing demand, and set the conditions for a subsequent expansion period.

This semi predicable and historical precedent has been disrupted by excessive credit expansion and the suppression of the contraction cycle.

When in history were interest rates kept below inflation during an expansion phase of the business cycle as the case has been since 2008?

Borrowed demand from the future, excessive debt and all the current aberrations make history an unreliable guide for forecasting the future.

*************
Hi Ryan,
Hard not to think this way. For mainstreet folk the cost of living is affecting their disposable spending. The booming recovery we were promised by the fall is not happening. Jobs that were paused are returning but now wages can’t keep up with rising prices.

Can they stop the money printing and contain the fallout from the lingering void? I get it…the engine is stalling so better to give it more gas until it stops sputtering. The root cause gets a temporary band aid…but doesn’t go away.

But I would welcome 5 years of expansion at this point…yet the path looks blurry.

On another subject, another rate hike in Russia…now 6.75%. Get this…the reason for raising yet again was to fight inflation while we sit and wait.

#17 SoggyShorts on 09.11.21 at 12:37 pm

#177 Dmitry on 09.11.21 at 10:58 am
@ #173 KLNR

Still, the question is:
why one needs to take a vaccine if one already has natural immunity?
Answers:
A) Coward
B) Selfish
C) Anti-social
D) do not know but does not fit my narrative so will keep ignoring.

Pick the right one.
***********************
E) Naturally gained immunity is less effective.
People who have had covid are 2.5x more likely to get re-infected than those who are vaccinated. So they still clog hospital beds etc.

If I google “should you get the vaccine if you’ve already had covid?”
Every single result from all sources is yes on my screen
page 1:
Who
texastribune
cdc
mayoclinic
forbes
Webmd
goodmorning america
universityofiowahealth
healthline
who.int
cbc
nationalgeographic
uchicagomedicine.org
uchicago.edu

Are they all wrong? Are your search results totally different than mine?

#18 SoggyShorts on 09.11.21 at 12:47 pm

We’ve been saying to clients for a little while now that the markets are overdue for a consolidation/pullback so we would not be surprised to see an uptick in volatility over the next few months. But, as I’ll outline, any weakness could prove to be a great buying opportunity given the very constructive macro and fundamental backdrop. – Ryan
*********************
What do you tell your retired clients? Do they have a cash weighting in their portfolio, or do they simply not participate in “buying opportunities”?
I get that they could rebalance from say bonds to equities, but if equities are up 20% then they should already be sitting at something like 62/38 in their 60/40 PF (I’m at 82.6/17.4 in my 80/20)

Thanks!

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.11.21 at 2:19 pm

#16 Don
On another subject, another rate hike in Russia…now 6.75%. Get this…the reason for raising yet again was to fight inflation while we sit and wait.
—————
Why would we follow Russia?
Putin is rising the price of Vodka, to make his people drink less.

#20 Martin on 09.11.21 at 2:31 pm

Hopefully the Virus becomes under control but could just as likely see a Variant that is way more deadly that the current Vaccines don’t work against. Are the booster shots built for the Variants or just more of the same?

#21 jess on 09.11.21 at 2:33 pm

war boom – 5tn creative destruction
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/11/us-afghanistan-iraq-defense-spending

#22 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 3:05 pm

When I read:

“…equity markets this year with the S&P 500 and TSX both up around 19%”

I thought: really?

Went to WebBroker and low and behold, YTD:

Threadbare TFSA = +18.52%
Threadbare Cash = +25.6%

Haven’t looked for awhile.

Garth’s “set it and forget it” subliminal brainwashing has worked on me without me knowing it.

First, I agree Ryan on the growth. I mean look it, economies are still recovering from the pandemic and that means growth, probably lots of it to come in the form of pandemic recovery and normal growth.

Second, thanks for all that you Garth et. al. It has worked out for me taking your advice.

Certain there are other hotshots here whose investment gains can run circles around mine but I’m happy with the above gains YTD, VERY happy.

Again, Garth et. al. That success is on you.

#23 boulders of salt on 09.11.21 at 3:06 pm

Investment advisors: “The market is impossible to predict. 90% of hedge fund managers cannot predict what will happen, so they do not beat the index.”

Also investment advisors: “Here’s what the market is about to do.”

#24 Don Guillermo on 09.11.21 at 3:16 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-that-moment-i-knew-he-wanted-me-to-lie-jody-wilson-raybould-recalls/

A couple of excerpts from JWR’s soon to be released book “Indian in the Cabinet”

“I knew what he was really asking. What he was saying. In that moment, I knew he wanted me to lie – to attest that what had occurred had not occurred. For me, this was just more evidence that he did not know me, did not know who I was or where I was from. Me – lie to protect a Crown government acting badly; a political party; a leader who was not taking responsibility. He must be delusional.”

“I knew then that the path that had led me to being the “Indian” in the Cabinet had veered in a different direction. The work was not over, certainly, but this man was not the leader I had thought him to be. It was clear. Now, it was clear.”

#25 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 3:18 pm

My gut says, not buying this post debate poll:

Big swing favours Trudeau Liberals: Nanos Nightly Tracking LPC 34.4%, CPC 30.1%, NDP 19.0%, BQ 6.4%, PPC 5.0%, GPC 4.6% three nights ending September 10

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1436693968155197443

Not because I don’t like it, it just doesn’t make any sense.

Instead, I think the Toronto Sun’s Brian Lilley has it correct:

“Look at the schedules, where the leaders go, what they say. It tells a story.
Right now the story is that Trudeau is on defence whole O’Toole and Singh are on the advance.”

https://twitter.com/brianlilley/status/1436483587629584399

—————–

When it come to figuring out humanity, Occam’s Razor to the rescue.

If so, Nanos makes NO SENSE at all.

Add to that on Twitter (and I subscribe to Left, Right, In Between – even Mad Max) no one came out and said Trudeau won the debate not even his minions (silence instead); rather, lukewarm to negative.

Canada wants to rid itself of Trudeau and desires a majority Gov after seeing TikTok hijack the Liberal agenda for the past few years. That means to me:

Con majority.

#26 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.21 at 3:21 pm

SoggyShorts “What do you tell your retired clients? Do they have a cash weighting in their portfolio, or do they simply not participate in “buying opportunities”?”

We hold a short-term bond ETF (similar to a money market fund) which could be used to purchase more equities and we would rebalance the portfolio. This is exactly what we were doing in March/April of last year. – Ryan L

#27 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.21 at 3:23 pm

Paddy “ Can’t one just tap into there secured/unsecured LOC to buy into a dip?”

You sure could. We had some clients doing that last year. – Ryan L

#28 Flop... on 09.11.21 at 3:24 pm

Saturday reading for the occasional Albertan…

M47BC

“Woodside Petroleum merger to create a global oil and gas giant in $20 billion mega deal.

Big miner BHP and oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum have announced a $20 billion merger of their oil and gas businesses to form one of the world’s biggest energy companies.

Woodside investors will hold a majority stake in the expanded company.

BHP has oil and gas fields in Australia, the Gulf of Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago and Algeria.

The big miner also has a stake in the Bass Strait oil and gas fields off the coast of Tasmania

Woodside said the proposed merger would create the largest energy company listed on the ASX, with a global top 10 position in the LNG industry by production.

Woodside’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill said the merger would allow the firm to fund new projects, including the Scarborough gas field off the coast of Western Australia.

“The proposed transaction de-risks and supports Scarborough FID (final investment decision) later this year and enables more flexible capital allocation,” she said.

“We will continue reducing carbon emissions from the combined portfolio towards Woodside’s ambition to be net zero by 2050.”

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/bhp-woodside-merger-oil-energy-company/100385084

#29 Bookmark on 09.11.21 at 3:31 pm

Jody has a new book!

Oh how timely.

I hope it has a chapter on poetic justice in it.

#30 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 3:32 pm

#13 Flop…

Set aside another $27K for league play and another $20K for Champions League.

2020-21 with Juventus he got 29 goals in Serie A and in Champions League play he got another 20 goals.

Then again, the English Premier League being INFERIOR to Italia’s Serie A, you better set aside more cash yet as it will be EASIER for him to score (recall who the Euro 2020 champions are).

Juventus not doing well without CR7 which is fine by me, I support Milan AC (Juve: 1 point in 3 games played, 1 tie, 2 losses – 14th place out of 20 in Serie A).

#31 SoggyShorts on 09.11.21 at 3:34 pm

#26 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.21 at 3:21 pm
SoggyShorts “What do you tell your retired clients? Do they have a cash weighting in their portfolio, or do they simply not participate in “buying opportunities”?”

We hold a short-term bond ETF (similar to a money market fund) which could be used to purchase more equities and we would rebalance the portfolio. This is exactly what we were doing in March/April of last year. – Ryan L
************************
So even if your weightings have slipped to 62/38 you’d shift further to say 65/35 to take advantage of a “sale”?
How big of an S&P drop would trigger such a move?

I’ve vowed to not make a move unless/until I hit 85/15 or 75/25 and have tried to train myself into thinking that any deviation from this plan is nothing more than market timing.

#32 Linda on 09.11.21 at 4:05 pm

I do like an upbeat forecast, especially when backed with data that supports it. I also like that concerns are acknowledged. To me that signals a voice of reason rather than rhetoric.

Todays dog photo is gorgeous! Those blue eyes complement the lush fur coat & vice versa; throw in that pop of autumn color & the whole composition makes a picture worth looking at.

#33 Planetgoofy on 09.11.21 at 4:08 pm

Yup I think
Every recession corps buckle down and tighten their belts. Cut costs, workers ect boosting profits….
Thats what I always dooooo. Revenues up every year fir us.

#25 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 3:18 pm
——————————–
Maybe people realize he only knows how to lie. I could only hope…LOL
Its easier to buy votes…But we are going to pay for that big time…in the form of higher taxes and more inflation.

And for all the sillies here shouting down at the anti vaxers…You don’t get it…..at all.
If we HAD trusted governments for years there would not be a problem.
They lie, steal, cheat and line their pockets ( T2 got it all done in one shift). And that’s not even exaggerating at all. I know that business well. Go look at the history….they lied about other heath issues /policies of the past. Its all right there.
PEOPLE ARE LOSING TRUST IN THESE CLOWNS. thankfully
That’s why there’s an anti vax movement. Don’t blame them, blame the government. If these idiots didn’t lie or change their tune, rules every week or what have you…. We wouldn’t have protest.
Stop thinking so small….who cares anyway as long as their NOT blocking access to hospital’s ect.

Personal FACT and bone of contention, governments screwed me on taxes and I can do NOTHING about it.
I’m voting for the one I dislike the least…almost….Max is out and I think he get the Sh!t end of the stick all the time but unfortunately that could be a vote for the inflator guy so its the Tool for me, all my family and neighbor’s.
Were in deep doo doo anyhow cause of socks. But maybe we can prevent a sinking right to the bottom.

#34 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:11 pm

Well, let the bloodletting begin…

“‘In that moment, I knew he wanted me to lie.’ Jody Wilson-Raybould recalls a tension-filled meeting with Justin Trudeau”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-that-moment-i-knew-he-wanted-me-to-lie-jody-wilson-raybould-recalls/

“‘I did not want her to lie’: Trudeau rejects Wilson-Raybould’s claims about SNC-Lavalin talk”

https://globalnews.ca/news/8183019/trudeau-jody-wilson-raybould-book-snc-lavalin/

Even the foreign press is picking up on this (the bankers):

“Canada’s Trudeau denies wanting his ex-justice minister to lie as election looms”

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/canada-s-trudeau-denies-wanting-his-ex-justice-minister-to-lie-as-election-looms/46940698

All this in the last 10 hrs on Twitter (to above linked articles).

——–

And for those of you that like some just plain old Trudeau Trash Talk, one of my fave’s Diane Francis:

“Time to toss out the pretty boy and make Erin O’Toole our prime minister”

https://financialpost.com/opinion/diane-francis-time-to-toss-out-the-pretty-boy-and-make-erin-otoole-our-prime-minister

——————

You mentioned JWR was coming Garth and you were correct. It seems with a vengeance.

#35 Faron on 09.11.21 at 4:26 pm

#23 boulders of salt on 09.11.21 at 3:06 pm
Investment advisors: “The market is impossible to predict. 90% of hedge fund managers cannot predict what will happen, so they do not beat the index.”

Also investment advisors: “Here’s what the market is about to do.”

I gather that a major role of investment advisors is to condition clients when things have been very good to remind them that bad times do come. Data showing that Sept can be soft isn’t a prediction. It’s a stat that implies a greater likelihood for badness but by no means certain badness. Hence no market timing. The messages are compatible.

#36 Habitt on 09.11.21 at 4:28 pm

Hey Dolce Vita looks like the liberals are on the uptick. Soft NDP voters going back to stop the Conservatives. The trend is getting Red. Gonna be a good one.

#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm

#33 Planetgoofy

I think you nailed it on Mad Max/PPC.

Seeing fewer and fewer fervent PPC posts on Twitter and I follow PPC people, not just Max.

My gut say the same as yours. People fed up with Trudeau and all the lies and will not vote for anyone (PPC, Lib, NDP maybe even Greens) that will deny a Con majority.

Vote splitting PPC included.

As you say in as many words:

The stakes are too high.

————–

Right now FN et. al. on Twitter having a field day with the JWR book leak teaser revelations. I follow quite a few of the FN et. al. from across Canada incl. the North and their recurring themes about Trudeau are:

Get rid of him. He’s a liar. Done nothing for us.

One Tweet by an FN from the West, in as many words:

>90% of FN’s have to truck potable water in. If a truck breaks down we’re screwed. How would you like to live like that every day?

I have to say that got to me, BIG time.

#38 Faron on 09.11.21 at 4:36 pm

#17 SoggyShorts on 09.11.21 at 12:37 pm

#177 Dmitry on 09.11.21 at 10:58 am
@ #173 KLNR

Gosh, it can’t be so, but it seems that the fact that natural immunity is weaker than vaccine induced immunity doesn’t fit with Dmitry’s narrative.

But that can’t be so. Dmitry is so clearly a free thinker who almost certainly doesn’t root through the gutters of the internet looking for anything that tells him being anti vaxx is remotely acceptable.

#39 Tom from Mississauga on 09.11.21 at 4:44 pm

Great job Ryan, especially with DXP. European 10y inflation high seems about a continental failure of energy policy. Dawn, ON nat gas price is up 120% y/y, are we headed towards energy lead global inflation?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/expensive-winter-ahead-europes-power-prices-surge-2021-09-10/

#40 Faron on 09.11.21 at 4:49 pm

Ryan, a question (maybe two) for you if you have time to reply:

First, why do you think that the COVID bump was the kind of recession that is able to initiate a new cycle? During the downturn, the narrative was that strong economic conditions would enable a fast recovery. The existing growth regime was propped up by stimulus and central bank programs. That, to me, implies that the cycle didn’t end in 2020 and that we are still perhaps in the late stages of the cycle that began after the GFC.

Second, what about inflation? I’m staring at a chart of PPI in goods and demand:

https://twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1436342031207571457/photo/1

that shows YoY inflation spiking up to 10.5% and 8.3%. PPI has only been here in the ’80s, in ’08 and now. I’ll grant that anything YoY right now is being measured against a very strange COVID economy backdrop. Still, all economic cycles in the past four decades have occurred under low inflation environments and under a regime of easing interest rates. Neither of those two conditions are likely to be met in the coming 5-10 years. What are your thoughts?

I don’t take this to mean a crash is in store, but I do take it to mean that there will be a strong headwind to equities in the coming decade.

Thanks!

#41 Faron on 09.11.21 at 4:58 pm

One more comment than back to home renovation…

Apparently Jim Cramer of “Mad Money” fame essentially announced that, based on 40 years of market data, September 17th would be the day to sell equities. Also recently, the mainstream financial media caught on to the fact that almost all recent market dips in the past 6 months have happened mid month right before monthly options expiry. September 17 will be that day again.

Now that the information is WIDELY spread, it will be fascinating to see what happens this month. My hypothesis is that VIX futures will build to the event, there will be a touch of realized volatility this week and then the indexes will rip face on the back of the elevated implied volatility. But, that view is a front run and I’m sure someone else has already frontrun that view…

#42 Mehling on 09.11.21 at 5:00 pm

https://www.vanmag.com/Opinion-3-Things-You-Cant-Complain-About-Ever-Again-if-You-Vote-Liberal-in-Vancouver-Granville

3 Things You Can’t Complain About Ever Again if You Vote Liberal in Vancouver Granville

#43 S.Bby on 09.11.21 at 5:13 pm

Since the financial system is designed to and must expand forever, the CBs will never stop stimulating. They can’t stop now or we go into a contraction at will lead to a depression. We are dependent on continued stimulus forever now. Keep in mind that all fiat currency systems have eventually collapsed under their own weight.

#44 Planetgoofy on 09.11.21 at 5:34 pm

#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm
————————————–
Cheers to that.
We need to remove him, then stay on the government and their commitments..
Lets get back to democracy and remove hypocrisy.

Democracy is dying in any country that at least had a form of it and authoritarian govs are on the rise big time, but, people are becoming aware.
There’s a lot more of us than them.

#45 When Will They Raise Rates? on 09.11.21 at 5:40 pm

DELETED

#46 Sara on 09.11.21 at 6:20 pm

#177 Dmitry on 09.11.21 at 10:58 am

Still, the question is:
why one needs to take a vaccine if one already has natural immunity?
Answers:
A) Coward
B) Selfish
C) Anti-social
D) do not know but does not fit my narrative so will keep ignoring.

Pick the right one.

====================

I am very happy you have not written any exams I have ever taken, as I would truly be stumped by your question particularly considering there is not a “none of the above” option.

#47 Tbone on 09.11.21 at 6:25 pm

The guy that threw gravel at Justin was arrested.
Hope he gets jail time .
He is the pm of Canada , and you don’t do that sh*t .

#48 Planetgoofy on 09.11.21 at 6:29 pm

#43 S.Bby on 09.11.21 at 5:13 pm
—————————————-
I agree extend and pretend. I could have never imagined the extreme measures that have been implemented. And we are still standing…
Or maybe just wile e coyote off the cliff?

Ill go with this call below.
I like lots of cash.
Its possible we could have a serious correction.
The good news is in, and markets move way ahead of news. That’s why the tube with all those overpaid talking heads are useless their review mirror reviews are hilarious! Traders lighten up……

These are fact
“There’s a bearish turn in our Weekly Indicator, with a new pivot now at 35415.
In addition to a widening spread in bond vs. junk bond yields, serious weakness remains in evidence everywhere that matters, while some key technical indicators are stretched far beyond previous records. In July retail “investment” activity exceeded the previous record by 50% and a Dow Theory Non-Confirmation currently attends markets.
Technical damage is widespread. Momentum has been declining for 16 weeks now, and the DJIA has broken below its 1-year uptrend. Margin has dipped, exactly as it did only prior to the collapses of 1987, 2000, and 2008. We doubt it’ll be different this time.”

#49 Yukon Elvis on 09.11.21 at 6:56 pm

#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm

>90% of FN’s have to truck potable water in. If a truck breaks down we’re screwed. How would you like to live like that every day?
+++++++++++++++++++++
I used to live on a small semi rural acreage. It was a lifestyle choice. There was no municipal water or sewer. Guess who paid to have a well and septic installed.

#50 Ustabe on 09.11.21 at 7:24 pm

#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm

…>90% of FN’s have to truck potable water in. If a truck breaks down we’re screwed. How would you like to live like that every day?…

That statement is wrong. Easily, demonstrably wrong.

I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me but they are easily found. But this current government inherited something like 165 water issues on reserves from previous governments, both Liberal and Conservative. A few months ago when I read the stats they were down to 50 remaining with those 50 being the most remote and toughest problems to solve. Something like 35 of those 50 were, apparently, well on their way to being fixed.

The remoteness and the lack of the specifically skilled labour it takes to operate and maintain a water plant doesn’t excuse the back log but Trudeau’s government has done more, in a shorter period of time, than any previous government.

With so much wrong with him and his governing style we surely don’t have to repeat lies, do we?

#51 SNC-Lavalin on 09.11.21 at 7:26 pm

Hey,

What happened in the end with the whole SNC-Lavalin thing? They got off right? The whole thing because about Trudeau but SNC-Lavalin thing got taken care of?

#52 Shawn Allen on 09.11.21 at 7:40 pm

No, All Fiat Currencies Have Not Collapsed

#43 S.Bby on 09.11.21 at 5:13 pm said:

Keep in mind that all fiat currency systems have eventually collapsed under their own weight.

*****************************
A totally false statement. For example the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar and many more have NOT collapsed. Not yet at least and therefore the statement is wrong.

Our money is an intangible with no inherent real value. But it can be traded for a goods and services. It exhibits erosion in purchasing power over time.

Money facilitates and incents the creation of goods and services over time. The quantity of goods and services per capita (and therefore the average living standard) goes up over time.

It’s a great system. Time will tell if it is currently being mismanaged by central banks and governments.

No matter what, it’s a safe bet that standards of living will continue to rise over the decades. All financial wealth is measured in units of money. Most wealth is not money as such.

#53 Planetgoofy on 09.11.21 at 7:46 pm

#34 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:11 pm
Well, let the bloodletting begin…

“‘In that moment, I knew he wanted me to lie.’ Jody Wilson-Raybould recalls a tension-filled meeting with Justin Trudeau”
————————————-
Actually hilarious hey Dolce Vita??
Ask a professional liar if he lied.

Hayyyyy T2….YOU GOT THIS!

#54 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.21 at 8:10 pm

Faron “First, why do you think that the COVID bump was the kind of recession that is able to initiate a new cycle? During the downturn, the narrative was that strong economic conditions would enable a fast recovery. The existing growth regime was propped up by stimulus and central bank programs. That, to me, implies that the cycle didn’t end in 2020 and that we are still perhaps in the late stages of the cycle that began after the GFC.”

Last year we saw all the hallmarks of a recession. The unemployment rate shot up, consumer spending contracted, the yield curve was inverted, manufacturing plummeted and the stock market fell 37% peak to trough, exactly in line with the average bear market decline. What causes the recession is always different, but the fallout and conditions of recessions are always the same. The only difference this time was all the fiscal and monetary stimulus which blunted the contraction and helped lead to a quicker recovery. Now, all the stimulus may lead to higher inflation, which could drive interest rates higher and possibly cut the expansion period but that is still a few years off at least. So I don’t buy the argument that this wasn’t a real recession and therefore the economy will peak soon. – Ryan L

#55 When Will They Raise Rates? on 09.11.21 at 8:28 pm

#52 Shawn Allen on 09.11.21 at 7:40 pm

No, All Fiat Currencies Have Not Collapsed

#43 S.Bby on 09.11.21 at 5:13 pm said:

Keep in mind that all fiat currency systems have eventually collapsed under their own weight.

*****************************
A totally false statement. For example the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar and many more have NOT collapsed. Not yet at least and therefore the statement is wrong.

Our money is an intangible with no inherent real value. But it can be traded for a goods and services. It exhibits erosion in purchasing power over time

————

Fiat currency is not even technically money, as by your own admission it fails to meet one crucial criterion:

a medium of exchange; a unit of account; a store of value; and, occasionally, a standard of deferred payment.

All fiat currecies have failed, except for those that haven’t failed yet, but will eventually fail, is a ridiculous argument.

I save in physical gold, silver and tangible assets, and laugh at people holding large amounts of fiat.

I only keep enough fiat for 6 months worth of expenses because fiat is quite literally toilet paper.

#56 Planetgoofy on 09.11.21 at 8:28 pm

#52 Shawn Allen on 09.11.21 at 7:40 pm
————————————————-
Of course they collapse its just a matter of how long it takes. The buying power of the loonie / Green back is pennies of what it was way back. Now no pennies. Assets prices have blown up.
We just haven’t crashed over night Zimbabwe style.
Unless you have tangible’s you have gotten way poorer.
Has your wage kept up? It certainly hasn’t for most.

“It’s a great system. Time will tell if it is currently being mismanaged by central banks and governments.” LOL

You don’t have to wait to see if its being mismanaged. Its right in front of you. Million dollar houses kids cant afford. What’s that? You need ALOT of dough to raise a family of 4….like Dr type dough. There tons of examples….
Get to 3 points on the debt and watch the mushroom cloud.
I think back to school for you my friend.

A GREAT piece I just listened to….Sounded like what I’ve been flipping out about here.
We are living nothing new in history. The guys in charge DON’T CARE….
We are on course for a disaster, its the same old same old.

The first 9min is it but the rest is good.
https://www.howestreet.com/2021/09/how-to-prep-for-bubble-of-everything-bursting-bob-hoye/

#57 Faron on 09.11.21 at 8:32 pm

#54 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.21 at 8:10 pm

Thanks for the answer Ryan. I do recall the yield curve showing signs of distress a fair bit before there was any sign of a pandemic. i.e.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

Flips negative in August, 2019. So, good point. Rate cuts also began in 2019 also indicating that the economy was starting to need help.

We shall see what inflation does. It’s hard for me to accept the YoY numbers because the baseline is a pandemic economy which isn’t something we’ve seen in the last 40 years.

I’m very curious to see if selling on long bonds picks up again to drive rates up. The curve steepening Nov-Mar was very pronounced.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend

#58 Planetgoofy on 09.11.21 at 8:34 pm

Ryan yes we could kick the can for a while….as long as they keep buying the hell out of the bonds and int rates don’t have a surprise….
On here I read houses are in a bubble…so is everything then. If the housing market gets whacked, and personally I don’t care so will the markets.
Everything’s connected.

For me the best predictor is human behavior and that’s why I avoided 2009 and 2020 major meltdowns. I was 95% cash….Cash made money!
Cheers

#59 Nonplused on 09.11.21 at 8:38 pm

So what happens if the immigrants can start coming in again and take up all the CERB jobs? What will the CERB recipients do if they get cut off and their employers won’t have them back? People get awfully vengeful. What if their landlords put them out on the street and write a review and nobody will take them back?

I’m guessing this will be more of a problem in the US. But what happens if all the people riding unemployment and foreclosure forbearance find out when this is all over that they have no job and no place to rent and nobody cares? Maybe people are more than a little mad at them?

#60 S.Bby on 09.11.21 at 9:42 pm

#52 Shawn Allen

Fiat currencies ultimately inflate themselves to death. There are many examples in history. Just because the US dollar hasn’t yet doesn’t mean it won’t. It is inevitable.

#61 Shawn Allen on 09.11.21 at 9:51 pm

FIAT Money Questions

When will They Raise Rates at 55 took issue with my post on fiat money saying arguing that because there is inflation over time our fiat money fails to be a store of value and in fact fails to be money at all (a hilarious claim)

***********************
Over what time period does money in a bank account need to hold its value? Does it fail this test if it loses virtually nothing in a day or month but 2% or 4% in a year? So far, such erosion or even the 15% inflation of some past years was not cause to abandon the fiat dollar. It is most definitely money. Legal tender. It makes our economy go around. It’s why most people go to work.

Will They Raise Rates likes to hold gold, silver and tangible assets and not fiat money.

Question: Does he value his assets in dollars or in ounces of gold and silver. Is his house in his mind and net worth statement worth so many dollars or so many ounces of gold?

When he makes transactions especially everyday transactions does he not do so in “fiat dollars”? If so, seems like fiat dollars are pretty useful to him.

It’s interesting also that gold mining companies raise fiat dollars and do their accounting in fiat dollars and pay their workers and suppliers in fiat dollars. Seems like fiat dollars facilitate the production of gold. How about that?

I think it’s a safe bet that the U.S. fiat dollar will outlive anyone reading this blog. It’s claimed death has been greatly exaggerated.

#62 Nonplused on 09.11.21 at 9:54 pm

#19 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.11.21 at 2:19 pm
#16 Don
On another subject, another rate hike in Russia…now 6.75%. Get this…the reason for raising yet again was to fight inflation while we sit and wait.
—————
Why would we follow Russia?
Putin is rising the price of Vodka, to make his people drink less.

——————————–

That isn’t going to work.

#63 Tried None Gained Some on 09.11.21 at 10:01 pm

Agree. I can’t remember how many times I’ve climbed the ‘wall of worry’ . Macro-socially , I see an old pattern emerging, the old ‘swinging pendulum’reversing trend. Historically we see that the more oppressive ‘things’ become generally, the more aggressive people become to counter balance. Communism has always failed for this reason. Adam Smith said it best in 1776. The ‘ Invisible Hand’. It’s a gene we all share , it’s in our nature to survive Liberal castration. Now we see globally people reacting to an evil socialist repression. Thus, the pendulum swings back. There’s a boom coming as socialist repression dies and windmills fall into disuse.

#64 Steven Rowlandson on 09.11.21 at 10:40 pm

“Communism has always failed for this reason.”
Evidently the powers that be disagree as they are constantly practising communism and quite recently they seem to think they can get away with genicide.

#65 Annek on 09.12.21 at 1:42 am

Polls show,Liberals will win again ,in a minority and make a coalition with NDP. Some of the same stuff as before.
Except T2 will continue to spend.
I am so disappointed that Canadians cannot see the incompetence and stupidity of the man. It must reflect on them being same. Poor Canada.
I am so disillusioned that we cannot have something better. Always thought most Americans were not too swift. But Canadians may be worse. Millennials: find better reading resources that Facebook and Instagram. Please!

#66 Annek on 09.12.21 at 1:43 am

Polls show,Liberals will win again ,in a minority and make a coalition with NDP. Some of the same stuff as before.
Except T2 will continue to spend.
I am so disappointed that Canadians cannot see the incompetence and stupidity of the man. It must reflect on them being same. Poor Canada.
I am so disillusioned that we cannot have something better. Always thought most Americans were not too swift. But Canadians may be worse. Millennials: find better reading resources that Facebook and Instagram. Please!

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.12.21 at 2:39 am

#49 Yukon Elvis on 09.11.21 at 6:56 pm
#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm

>90% of FN’s have to truck potable water in. If a truck breaks down we’re screwed. How would you like to live like that every day?
+++++++++++++++++++++
I used to live on a small semi rural acreage. It was a lifestyle choice. There was no municipal water or sewer. Guess who paid to have a well and septic installed.
——————-
So you think being assigned to a reservation is a “live style” choice?

#68 Do we have all the facts on 09.12.21 at 8:14 am

According to the Bank of Canada Act the primary role of the Bank of Canada is the use of monetary policies to keep inflation under control. I find it interesting that the Bank of Canada relies on the Government of Canada to establish the official rate of inflation used to implement their ‘autonomous’ monetary policies. This creates an environment where the Government of Canada can influence monetary policies implemented by the Bank of Canada simply by fudging the ‘official’ rate of inflation.

One would assume that an independent organization given responsibility for keeping inflation in Canada under control might develop their own measuring stick. I find it difficult to believe that any truly autonomous institution with a mandate to control real inflation would accept that the price of the basket of goods and services applicable to the majority of Canadian citizens increased by only 3.7% over the past year.

So when the Bank of Canada states that the overnight rate will remain at 0.25% while real inflation of most goods and services climbs over 6.0% per annum I must question both their mandate and their autonomy.

Remember that in January 1971 the Government of Canada stated that the official inflation rate was 0.99% per year. By December 1971 the official inflation rate had climbed to 4.93% and by December 1973 the official inflation rate had climbed to 9.38%.

By 1981 the official rate of inflation had approached 13.0% per annum and overnight rate set by the Bank of Canada has increased to 18.0% per annum.

My point is that real inflation must be controlled before it gains serious momentum. Just declaring that current inflation is transitory does mean it is under control. The average wages of millions of Canadian workers have increased by less than 1.5% per year over the past three years and in October the minimum wage in Ontario is projected to increase by 0.7%. Without a significant increase in wages our consumer based economy will stall and without an immediate increase in the overnight rate a repeat of 1971 seems inevitable.

Our current Federal government is not behaving in a responsible manner and a truly autonomous Central Bank would adjust their monetary policies to keep real inflation under control.

Making it easier for Canadians to accumulate additional debt is equivalent to pouring gasoline on an inflation based fire.

#69 Dharma Bum on 09.12.21 at 8:51 am

#65 Annek

I am so disappointed that Canadians cannot see the incompetence and stupidity of the man. It must reflect on them being same.
——————————————————————————–

That’s exactly our problem.

As much as I can’t stand JT, it’s not his fault that he is the PM.

It’s the fault of stupid Canadians.

There are a ton of ’em.

A TON, I tells ya!

https://twitter.com/zappa/status/1157223373002485761?lang=en

#70 Sheesh on 09.12.21 at 9:53 am

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.12.21 at 2:39 am
#49 Yukon Elvis on 09.11.21 at 6:56 pm
#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm

>90% of FN’s have to truck potable water in. If a truck breaks down we’re screwed. How would you like to live like that every day?
+++++++++++++++++++++
I used to live on a small semi rural acreage. It was a lifestyle choice. There was no municipal water or sewer. Guess who paid to have a well and septic installed.
——————-
So you think being assigned to a reservation is a “live style” choice?
————-
Last I checked they are free to live elsewhere if they choose.

#71 Yukon Elvis on 09.12.21 at 10:27 am

#66 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.12.21 at 2:39 am
#49 Yukon Elvis on 09.11.21 at 6:56 pm
#37 Dolce Vita on 09.11.21 at 4:34 pm

>90% of FN’s have to truck potable water in. If a truck breaks down we’re screwed. How would you like to live like that every day?
+++++++++++++++++++++
I used to live on a small semi rural acreage. It was a lifestyle choice. There was no municipal water or sewer. Guess who paid to have a well and septic installed.
——————-
So you think being assigned to a reservation is a “live style” choice?
++++++++++++++++++++
This is Canada. No one is “assigned”to live anywhere. People can choose where they live and work. Or not.

#72 Tony on 09.12.21 at 12:18 pm

So Ryan, what level of interest rates should be right now or even in 12 months to 18 months?

The prime rate is around 2.4% and the the 5 year mortgage rates fixed are 1.75% to 2.25% right now. I do truly believe we should be minimum at a 5% prime rate, 4% to 4.5% 5 year fixed rate mortgage rate.

If not today at least in the next 1 to 2 years. As for savings for the Bank of Canada rate, we should be at 1.75% to 2% minimum in the next 18 months to 2 year, 2.5% to 2.75% in the next 2.5 to 3 years. Also, 5 year GIC rates should be in the minimum 3.25% to 3.75% just like they were back in 2019. There are a few credit unions, banks in Canada with 2.20% to 2.5% these days but most are in the 1.6% to 1.92% at most.

There is to much money printing, devaluation, manipulation by the central banks of the world including here in Canada, Bank of Canada with higher inflation rates even before the pandemic hit.

#73 Jean on 09.12.21 at 12:52 pm

Hey do we have all the facts, you are so right. I have a few friends about my age 59 to 61 years old who put most of their extra income in their real estate but are now regretting it falling in the trap of lower interest rates for over 20 years now.

They have a bunch of real estate they are renting but have little to no cash of their own. Maybe $20,000 to $30,000 in any bank account. They now need to borrow $175,000 for repairs, upkeep and make sure they are up to code, presentable. They were offered only $90,000 at 2.5% but the rest the best they could get is 3.255% to 3.65%. These are all fixed rates by the way. To make things worse, it is now 6 months 2 of their tenants are not paying rent anymore living there and the bills are piling up. They are starting to panic as they always got rental income coming in and always reinvested in new properties. This never happened to them in almost 15 years investing their money, leverage in GTA real estate. They are too much house rich cash poor with 3 properties and $500,000 in mortgage, HELOC debt.

My situation is not mired in debt like my friends here. I am really thinking about retiring at 61 years old as my boss here is refusing to give me a 10% raise because I have not had a raise in 2.5 years. Inflation at the grocery stores, energy prices, property taxes are getting ridiculous now. In the past my last yearly to 18 month pay raises were anywhere from 2.75% to 3.75%.

My wife and I coming from a background of saving money, hard work, working full time avoid debts as much as possible put away alot of money over the last 39 years in RRSP’s, TFSA’s, term deposits, GIC’s, compound GIC’s, OSB’s, provincial bonds, strip bonds, credit union shares.

If I don’t get my 10% raise by thanksgiving, guess what I am retired. My wife is probably retiring next year so finally time to collect our E.I., early CPP which will let us live off that for the next 18 months without touching our personal savings, investments which will allow us to let our investments interest grow by another $75,000. We then can live off our early CPP which is around $1,300 maybe $1,350 a month plus a portion of 40% of our interest income, accrued interest money from non-registered, RRSP’s which is another $20,000 a year. By us not having any debts at all makes the big difference of depending on a job even part-time or taking undue risk with our investments to create a higher investment income.

Good luck to my current employer finding a reliable, responsible, hard working employee working 6 days a week, 52 hours a week for 50 weeks a year paying them $60,000 a year salary+ 2 weeks vacation pay a year.

#74 TurnerNation on 09.12.21 at 3:10 pm

For Yellow Tractor Guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3L2L9OpkLc
“5 Reasons immigrants are leaving Canada
Two days ago, I received an anonymous email asking me to share their experience of staying 3 years in Canada…. I will be discussing 5 verified reasons why immigrants are leaving Canada”

— Once again the young must never again know normalcy in the ‘new system’.
They’ve lost a double digit per-cent of their young lives, prime years, gone forever.
They are the casualties of this global WW3.

.Toronto high-schoolers shut out of sports, clubs for September: ‘I feel lost’ (theglobeandmail.com)

.PEI is shutting down schools over cases (cbc.ca)

— Control over travel.

.Chinese city with coronavirus outbreak stops buses, trains (ctvnews.ca)

——
——
USA: So this is how they end the Empire. With the stroke of a pen. From the inside.
(File this one also under Control Over Our Breeding Dept.?)

https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/ny-hospital-pause-baby-deliveries-after-staffers-quit-over-vaccine-mandate/NNMBMQ6VTFFT5DDAMXV46DQ5TQ/
“NY hospital to pause baby deliveries after staffers quit over vaccine mandate.
LOWVILLE, N.Y. — An upstate New York hospital said it will pause the delivery of babies in two weeks because of a spate of resignations by maternity unit workers who are objecting to COVID-19 vaccination mandates.”

#75 Linda on 09.12.21 at 8:29 pm

TurnerNation, let the politicians, Mayor New York DiSciemo and other government workers deliver the babies.

#76 down it goes on 09.12.21 at 9:00 pm

The Nikkei 225 is over 30,000 now not seen since 1990. This is troubling and my prediction is by December-2021 we will see a big drop in most stock markets worldwide.

I am forecasting a 15% to 30% drop for many stock markets. The ones that ran up the most will probably see the 25% to 30% drops from current levels. You read it here first.

Why? – Garth

#77 Dana on 09.12.21 at 9:54 pm

I just got laid off after working for 25 years a mid size furniture factory. The major reason cited was the relentless higher carbon taxes and energy and other inflation costs. In the last 3 years I sold my secondary property, paid off all debts and made a decent profit net of taxes $202,000 after 13 years in the real estate investment market. I had a really bad feeling things would get more problematic with my job down the road.
The only bright spot this week my GIC broker got me a decent rate 2.6% for 5 years fully insured FSRAO . My maturing 1 and 18 month year GIC’s, RRSP’s, TFSA’s is the main source of money I have for post work life and my retirement.

They were only getting almost nothing, 1.35% at most. Now, with no debts, no mortgage and all my GIC deposits worth currently $800,000, ($225,000 in non-registered, $81,000 in TFSA’s, $494,000 in RRSP’s) can really make me much more compound interest. It is $54,000 more compound interest to be exact but total compound interest of $109,550 in 5 years of interest making certainty.I will be getting my severance of $68,000 and EI which is probably another $24,000 and $49,000 in my reserve liquid savings account, cashable GIC’s which I can live okay for the next 5 years. This will make me eligible in 5 years for my full CPP, OAS which will be at least $1,700 a month. I can really just live off only a a 0.70% yearly payout rate of all my RRSP’s, TFSA’s, GIC’s and my CPP, OAS.

Once I am 65. this will still allow me to be at least $1,400 a month more financially ahead and never touching my original investments, principal.

#78 Helen on 09.12.21 at 10:12 pm

I sure miss my 5.10%, 5 year weekly pay GIC with National Trust Company back in 1997.

I remember my GIC was getting $150 a week interest put in my bank account and I would use the $150 a week for my RRSP contribution. I then filled out a CRA form which told my payroll department to deduct $45 a week less in income taxes deducted at source which in turn I paid for all or most of my weekly groceries back in 1997 to 2001.