Wobbles

Alison’s shopping for a giant mortgage is going well. She wants a million. So far the two banks she’s approached (blue and green) have approved the borrowing. The options are a secured line of credit to cover 60% or so of the two million property she wants (at prime, fully open for repayments) or a variable-rate mortgage for five years at 1.3%.

Both options float. If the Bank of Canada jacks its key rate, the bankers will follow, prime will fatten and so will the cost of a VRM.

“So what are the odds of that?” she asked me. “What should I do?”

Well, first, maybe she shouldn’t buy at the top of the mountain. Peak house. Prices topped out in March, have declined since then (a bit) while bidding wars have subsided along with inventory. It’s a weird market.

Here’s the chart. The red line is yearly price appreciation in the GTA (most markets are similar). The blue line is the ratio of sales to listings. The similarity between the boom in 2017 and the Pandemic bubble is striking, both for prices and sales ratio. If the pattern continues to repeat – especially if the Libs are not returned to office on the 20th – we may be on the way to another correction. Just what the Millennials want. But tough news for Allison if she makes an offer this coming weekend.

From peak house towards a new correction?

Source: Stephen Glaysher; Turner Investments

Okay, so much for market timing. Now, what about the borrowing? What’s the best option? When are rates going up? Ever?

The CB yesterday led us to believe it plans on withdrawing stimulus next month. Yup, another chop in the weekly bond purchases which have helped depress yields. So it’s likely mortgage rates (based on five-year Canada debt) will be higher by Christmas than now. As for the benchmark bank rate, it’s been in the ditch at one quarter of one per cent since Covid hit and will remain there until the pandemic is further corralled. When 80% of the herd is dosed (now at 67% nationally) you should expect change. Those who tell you rates can never, ever, ever increase are full of it. Over time there’s no option. Central banks need to raise the cost of money, lest the next recession – with no more stimulus to give – turns into something far darker.

So the prime ain’t moving for a year. Mortgage rates won’t be so lucky. But the grind up will be a gradual one.

As for A – assuming her house lust is overwhelming – the options are simple. If she can come up with gobs of money over the next year to throw at the loan, the LOC financing is a good choice. Open. No penalties. Flexible. At 2.45%. If she wants to keep her financial  investments growing in a balanced portfolio, the VRM’s perfect. At 1.3% it’s almost three points less than inflation and about 10% below the return so far in 2021 for a basket of ETFs. Why would anybody really want to pay off a borrowing that’s essentially free? Allie can use growth after five years  to pay down the home loan (plus she can lock in at any time if variable rates nudge higher).

The main risk is the market. Not stocks, but real estate.

Realtors swear the weakness in sales during July and August was seasonal. No biggie. They also say the paucity in listings is because sellers would rather take their properties off MLS than field a low-ball offer. And everybody agrees the litmus test will be September. If sales rekindle, prices will hold. If they falter we could be on the way to a rerun of the post-2017 correction.

Meanwhile, the urban condo market travels in the opposite direction. No surprise there. Lots of big companies (like all the banks) now have vax mandates in anticipation of the end of WFH. And while the Delta variant has slowed the return to work schedule, sensible people know it’s inevitable. Even a few-days-a-week-hybrid model means many people who moved out to Bunnypatch will need a DT pied-a-terre. Your chance to buy at a deep discount was in November. And that’s exactly when this blog spelled it out.

The vacancy rate in Toronto is under 2%. In the 905 it’s less than 1%. In Vancouver closer to 3% and falling. Rents are going up. There are bidding wars among tenants. Landlords are picking renters with the strongest covenants. Urban flight was hasty.

About the picture: “Thanks for the great blog,'” writes Jeff in his MSU. ” I read it everyday and appreciate your wisdom and wit. Here’s a picture of the newest member of our family, Kobe. He’s twelve weeks old and is a mix of lab and border collie. Here he is taking a break from chewing at our cottage near Fenlon Falls on the shores of the mighty Burnt River. My daughter would be thrilled to see her new love  on the screen of the best blog ever.”

132 comments ↓

#1 My Body My Choice on 09.09.21 at 1:39 pm

I’m not watching any of the debates.

What’s there to debate? Trudeau is the worst PM in Canada’s history. O’Toole and the Cons are the only ones who have a chance of removing him.

#2 OriginalAlex on 09.09.21 at 1:42 pm

Great post – but awesome pooch.

#3 Def Lated on 09.09.21 at 1:44 pm

Low pressure light came up on the dash now that it is cooler.

So I went to the gas station to pump up the tires. $2.00!

TALK ABOUT INFLATION!

Used to be a courtesy thing for free at gas stations to use the compressor. Then I remember seeing some for $0.25, now it is $2.00 to pump your tires.

Took out the bicycle pump from the trunk and did it by hand to contribute to economic contraction and DEFLATION.

#4 Unrepresented on 09.09.21 at 1:51 pm

#1 My Body My Choice

I’m not watching any of the debates.

What’s there to debate? Trudeau is the worst PM in Canada’s history. O’Toole and the Cons are the only ones who have a chance of removing him.

———————-

Is it really a debate when Justin apparently got to see all the questions and prepped for it?

Seems more like a performance or a play, and to be honest, this is where the drama teacher training comes in handy. Most people read and comprehend at high school level – and here is a high school drama teacher!

#5 alexinvestor on 09.09.21 at 2:00 pm

The BOC will raise rates … until they see the unemployment numbers and promptly run the other way.

#6 Quintilian on 09.09.21 at 2:14 pm

Theoretically true; Central Bankers do not control mortgage rates; the long bonds supposedly do.

In reality, politicians and central bankers actually do.
If the politicians and bankers want low interest rates, so it shall be.

They have many levers at their disposal.

They can make life very miserable for bond holders or retail banks that don’t comply.

The politicians, through central banks have the power.
Resistance if futile.

#7 TurnerNation on 09.09.21 at 2:34 pm

Unusually sharp move in US long Bonds today:
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=h1


#131 Planetgoofy on 09.09.21 at 11:49 am
Unfortunately there no longer is News only the manufacturing of consent, normalizing words.
We were being trained on #stayhome, bubbles, “essential travel”, lockdown, travel passes, armed checkpoints.
Ask Australia how this is working out. Test zone for what’s to come?


— This is permanent CV rules folks. Get used to it.

https://news.yahoo.com/hero-act-covid-safety-standards-181215649.html
“ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Employers in New York will soon be required to follow new COVID-19 safety standards, including mandatory mask wearing for many workers, under a newly enacted state law.”

#8 Grandv!ew on 09.09.21 at 2:35 pm

Silly question but I have been wondering.

If the homeowners (mortgage holders) are not able to sustain 2-4% mortgage rate hike how they are going to sustain 6-8% yearly inflation.
And NO there is nothing transitional about inflation. Prices that are gone UP will NEVER come down. Sure, cost of borrowing is gone down and government can continue to play that card(continuation of QE) but for how much longer and at what cost to the society?

#9 No Interest on 09.09.21 at 2:35 pm

While many are looking at potential of interest rates going up let us remember 0% has not been reached.

Negative rates also exist.

Before you dismiss it, would you have thought St. Nicolas Trudeau would be making it rain to the tune of $400B in one year? Would you have thought money supply would quintuple in just one year? Would you have thought Canadian economy would shrink with re-opening when Real Estate slowed down a sliver?

Don’t bet against red…deep deep IN THE RED!

#10 Capt. Serious on 09.09.21 at 2:41 pm

The vacancy rate in Toronto is under 2%. In the 905 it’s less than 1%. In Vancouver closer to 3% and falling. Rents are going up. There are bidding wars among tenants. Landlords are picking renters with the strongest covenants. Urban flight was hasty.

Can confirm. Demand for downtown TO condos is extreme. My relative is out of the country for a few years and is leasing her condo at Spadina / King. She got 14 offers to lease and ended up taking someone paying the first 4 months up front. We’re back baby.

#11 BlogDog123 on 09.09.21 at 2:48 pm

Tonight’s debate predictions:

1. Annoying nasally voice by T2.

2. T2 talking about “investing” in blah, blah, blah. Interpret that as piling more on the national debt because he’s not paying for it. Future-you is paying for it so he can avoid spending choices today. Spend on everyone and everything’s a go!

3. Green party leader being ignored.

4. O’Toole looking for that one line or Zinger that’ll corner T2 to answer why he’s such a flake or spendthrift or didn’t fix xyz in last six years.

5. Trudeau trying to corner O’Toole as an abortion-hating, gun-loving, benefits-cutting evil sith lord. Not going to stick this time.

6. Jagmeet looking fine and speaking well and having his zany NDP “takers” policies he has no idea how to pay for, or how it will drive “makers” out of Canada if he gets his way.

7. The BQ guy, why’s he in the debates, most of us can’t vote for his party, he’s not represented outside of QC as far as I know…

The mudslinging starts at 9:00pm ET tonight!

#12 XGRO and chill on 09.09.21 at 2:54 pm

To be completely honest though, the “why buy? Houses are at an all time high” argument has been stated nearly constantly for the last 10 years. People who have deferred probably have been burnt.

#13 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 09.09.21 at 3:01 pm

Hate to say it but the realtors are right when it comes to non-condo /no strata properties (SFH and duplex),at least in the LM. We looked for over 1 year ,same properties no-one wants to buy get recycled on MLS , whatever is good gets snapped either beforehand or in days after hitting the MLS.Not much reasonable decent construction coming online either ,some really weird floor plans out there,designed with no practical mindset ,or Hong Kong Style mini hotels .
I really don’t see prices coming down massively without new supply , yeah ,the unloved ones might get sold at clearance price ,though if 2008 if any indication they will just get rented out.
Ofcourse I am talking about good locations here ,not out there in the bunny patch.

#14 Penny Henny on 09.09.21 at 3:17 pm

According to TRREB the number of sales for August were 11% higher than the 15 year average.

They are 30% below peak levels. And 15-year averages don’t mean a whole lot given the population increase over that time. Realtor Frankenumbers. – Garth

#15 Flop… on 09.09.21 at 3:23 pm

#12 XGRO and chill on 09.09.21 at 2:54 pm
To be completely honest though, the “why buy? Houses are at an all time high” argument has been stated nearly constantly for the last 10 years. People who have deferred probably have been burnt.

///////////////////////

Depends on the market and what you did with the property after purchase.

People on the Westside of Vancouver are still losing money on houses that they just bought and held onto from 2016.

To be safe you have to find a way to add value…

M47BC

#16 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 3:25 pm

My prediction. Jagmeet will tell three anecdotes of people he talked to.

#17 jess on 09.09.21 at 3:27 pm

my body my choice rlly?

The average cost of treating a COVID-19 patient who needs intensive care in Canada is estimated at over $50,000 compared with $8,400 for someone who’s had a heart attack, a new report says.

Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information show the average cost for patients being treated for the virus is more than $23,000, which is four times higher than a patient with influenza.

Ann Chapman, interim director of health spending and primary care at the agency, said the report reinforces the economic consequences of a serious illness, though it does not include the cost for doctors.
read more @https://www.kitchenertoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/report-says-50k-cost-for-covid-patients-but-expert-says-factor-in-other-costs-4316569

#18 TurnerNation on 09.09.21 at 3:32 pm

What a surprise – Alberta – they are selling Passports and Permanent Rolling Economic and Social Lockdowns.
It’s a global thang. Till 2022-23 if not 2025.
(As an aside I really wonder how I’ve kept my health all these decades without lockdowns and passports.)

But the hospital capacity! It’s been over 1.5 years. Chop chop. Record new immigration coming, aging population.
Aren’t ERs and ICUs usually full-up – years past? Build hospitals or crush the local economy…guess what it will be. I bet we will be begging for the UBI – by Q1 2022.

$500,000,000 spent on a useless election, power grab. But the hospital capacity!! Sure.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-doctors-health-care-collapse-covid-1.6169269
“It said intensive care unit capacity sat at 87 per cent — just slightly below a seven-day average of 91 per cen”
“Dr. Darren Markland, an intensive care physician in Edmonton who was also on the panel, said the government should consider vaccine passports and a circuit-breaker lockdown, which is a tight set of restrictions for a limited amount of time to curb ongoing transmission of COVID-19.”

— Staffing concerns? You don’t say. QC’s Passport should be keeping everyone safe by now?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-health-care-workers-unvaccinated-1.6168812
“Unions representing health-care workers said Wednesday they understand the importance of vaccines in controlling the pandemic, but worry making it mandatory could exacerbate chronic staffing shortages.”

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.09.21 at 3:34 pm

@#141 Shawn Allen

““the commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the budget will balance itself.”
++++

The “budget will never balance itself” if the govt spends billions more than it takes in.

The only thing “beneath me” is gas….. and only for a few seconds.

The fact that Trudeau said that proves one of two things.

He’s incredibly ignorant or incredibly arrogant….

Either way.

Vote accordingly

#20 Adam on 09.09.21 at 3:45 pm

” If sales rekindle, prices will hold. If they falter we could be on the way to a rerun of the post-2017 correction.”

———–

Even if that happens, who cares? It’s demoralizing to look at the numbers. According to Teranet HPI, Toronto hit peak house pricing in July 2017 at an index rating of 254.93. A year later, in July 2018 it was 244.70. That means a drop of 4.01% in prices between July 2017 and July 2018. Okay, so, where are we now? Well, July 2021 has an index of 320.46. So prices would need to drop almost 21% for us to get back to the “HIGH” of July 2017, or they would need to drop about 24% for us to get back to the “LOW” of July 2021. So really, even if prices drop, let’s say, 20%, we won’t even be back to the peak of 2017 insanity. And the chances of prices dropping 20% are pretty rare, I think anyone would agree. So in my opinion the ship on Canadian real estate has settled. We would need a 50% correction to make any true dent in things and that ain’t happening. Keep in mind these are just Toronto #’s. Other places have seen way bigger increases since 2017 and would need to drop 30 or 40% to get back to 2017 levels.

#21 Property Accountant on 09.09.21 at 3:48 pm

I would not say that mortgage rates will NEVER increase however the government and central banks have many policy options and now fighting inflation is not even a target (even US changed its FED guidance from “inflation targeting” to “promoting employment”).

Stakeholder’s main goal is DEBT DEVALUATION through high inflation and low interest rates. After all, if debt costs 1% and inflation is 4%, debt devalues 3% annually. Modern Monetary Theory (or More Money Today) has been devised to explain that.

In this environment having debt and mortgage is good thing as it devalues every year. And Inflation? CPI ? Do you still believe in right “goods” basket that is good for everyone? This is hidden tax middle class pays for having money stored in GIC’s or saved up somewhere , not invested.

What’s the reason to buy house now? Money burns in your hands, like water falls through your fingers. Because they print it.

They have not managed to print houses and land yet.

#22 Barb on 09.09.21 at 3:49 pm

Kobe looks adorable!

Have him in your arms when you advance vote tomorrow.
He’ll point away from T2.

#23 tbone on 09.09.21 at 3:54 pm

Screw the debate , im going to watch Tom Brady hand the cowboys their helmets tonight.
Ill vote for the good guy tomorrow in the advanced poll.

#24 mfjens on 09.09.21 at 4:03 pm

The Prime Minister has successfully navigated the racist sexist attacks of the CONservative Toolboy and the Poutine Truck and now he is back in territoy to seal the deal in the final weeks. The Big Red Machine is unstoppable.

Congratulations Mister Prime Minister.

Onward to 338!

#25 Game Show on 09.09.21 at 4:25 pm

#11 BlogDog123

Tonight’s debate predictions:

1. Annoying nasally voice by T2.

2. T2 talking about “investing” in blah, blah, blah. Interpret that as piling more on the national debt because he’s not paying for it. Future-you is paying for it so he can avoid spending choices today. Spend on everyone and everything’s a go!

3. Green party leader being ignored.

4. O’Toole looking for that one line or Zinger that’ll corner T2 to answer why he’s such a flake or spendthrift or didn’t fix xyz in last six years.

5. Trudeau trying to corner O’Toole as an abortion-hating, gun-loving, benefits-cutting evil sith lord. Not going to stick this time.

6. Jagmeet looking fine and speaking well and having his zany NDP “takers” policies he has no idea how to pay for, or how it will drive “makers” out of Canada if he gets his way.

7. The BQ guy, why’s he in the debates, most of us can’t vote for his party, he’s not represented outside of QC as far as I know…

The mudslinging starts at 9:00pm ET tonight!

——————–

Afghanistan? SNC? Jody? Blackface?

Each time these are brought up – drink a shot!

#26 Dolce Vita on 09.09.21 at 4:30 pm

Guess what I got in my mail today:

https://i.imgur.com/xt8TV3K.png

Fitting musical accompaniment, Po po po po po po:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0J2QdDbelmY

———–

Mille grazie Elections Canada.

Old School Liberal payback time to the New School Liberal Clown Car Amateur Hour.

Baci d’Italia.

#27 Sail Away on 09.09.21 at 4:31 pm

Oh man. I pop back to civilization briefly to pick up a dog from his 3-day, $3,000 vet stay, and find these headlines:

1. ‘Canada Plea Deal Possible for Quebec Woman Accused of Sending Donald Trump Poison’
-The Canadian Press

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/plea-deal-possible-for-quebec-woman-accused-of-sending-donald-trump-poison/ar-AAOgJBO?ocid=msedgntp

2. ‘The Historical Record Vindicates Egerton Ryerson’
-Financial Post

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/lynn-mcdonald-the-historical-record-vindicates-egerton-ryerson/ar-AAOfSmX?ocid=msedgntp

3. ‘Fauci was Untruthful to Congress About Wuhan Lab Research, New Documents Appear to Show’
-Newsweek

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/medical/fauci-was-untruthful-to-congress-about-wuhan-lab-research-new-documents-appear-to-show/ar-AAOgg4Q?ocid=msedgntp

Who are the baddies again?

#28 Planetgoofy on 09.09.21 at 4:34 pm

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.09.21 at 3:34 pm
@#141 Shawn Allen

““the commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the budget will balance itself.”
++++
The “budget will never balance itself” if the govt spends billions more than it takes in.

The only thing “beneath me” is gas….. and only for a few seconds.

The fact that Trudeau said that proves one of two things.
He’s incredibly ignorant or incredibly arrogant….
Either way.
Vote accordingly
——————————
Good one Fartz
Ya Firstly, governments know diddly squat about growing the economy. They know how do dig holes and fill’em back up. Business people…..you know entrepreneurs like Paterson and Bezos do.
If we can get going at a decent clip maybe by 2070?
I think a mushroom cloud before that.

#29 Nonplused on 09.09.21 at 4:35 pm

Things are very hard to predict, especially the future.

However, I’m going to go out on a limb: Liberal minority government, housing crisis addressed by all the free money they can think of for new buyers but no action on the supply side, more “tax the rich” and “green” initiatives that do punish the really rich but also catch up a lot of the productivity in the economy, hence rate rises further out than anyone imagines due to unemployment, high inflation affecting everything not just used cars, and dogs and cats living together. Truly something biblical.

So ya, based on the idea that deciding what to do today based on what will happen tomorrow doesn’t have a very good track record, Alison should go with what she knows: Interest rates are low, inflation is high, insane incentives are coming, and they literally aren’t building any more houses. (Ok, that last part is hyperbole. I know a few readers need cues. They are building some new houses, just not enough.)

#30 Nonplused on 09.09.21 at 4:44 pm

#3 Def Lated on 09.09.21 at 1:44 pm
Low pressure light came up on the dash now that it is cooler.

So I went to the gas station to pump up the tires. $2.00!

TALK ABOUT INFLATION!

———————————-

If you already have a cordless drill, you can get an inflator for $70.

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/mastercraft-20v-max-pistol-inflator-tool-0542435p.html?_br_psugg_q=mastercraft+inflator

I figure it would pay for itself in 35 uses at $2 a crack. Since it is crappy tire, if you wait it’ll be 40% off eventually. Plus you get CT money, the second most circulated currency in Canada.

Anything built in China still seems to be deflating. No, I don’t understand how.

#31 Planetgoofy on 09.09.21 at 4:47 pm

Oh and one more thing the government knows how to do real well….get in the way of business by taxing and regulating the hell out of them. I’ve had many. Just head to the taxation sites for a head spin.
Aa soon as an industry starts showing success look out your going to get a knock on the door and greeted with a hand out. AND not TOO you.

#32 Woke up this morning... on 09.09.21 at 4:50 pm

Yo Dolce Vita,

I thought about you today!

Got an email from Autodromo Nazionale di Monza for the Grand Prix. Apparently ticket sales are way down. 50K allowed but only 16K tickets sold – prime seats and deals to be had.

Is that Green Pass cutting people off from wanting to go?

#33 db on 09.09.21 at 4:50 pm

There are four critical issues that all of the parties seem hell-bent on either exacerbating or ignoring with respect to their policy proposals:
1) Infrastructure, or more critically the complete inability to plan, design, budget, supervise and execute competently.
2) The PBO’s complete inability to actually quantify risk and to communicate risk when it does its budget analysis. Climate change, a global risk phenomenon, that is both extreme and unpredictable, is rolled into program expenditures. This means, like Covid, if the cost exceeds next to non-existent budget allocations we will simply borrow our way out of the problem.
3) We’re going to greatly increase expenditures on a shrinking pool of kids – exactly when expenditures on seniors will rise exponentially – and pay for this with more borrowing. We might be the first generation where kids have to pay for their own daycare while competing with their grandparents for caregivers – and diapers.
4) Housing. Where to start. Garth’s critiques notwithstanding, Trudeau’s most dangerous proposal dealt with CMHC premiums and exposure. It also attracted the least amount of attention which speaks to overall financial literacy of both the media and the general public.

#34 Nonplused on 09.09.21 at 4:56 pm

#27 Sail Away on 09.09.21 at 4:31 pm

“2. ‘The Historical Record Vindicates Egerton Ryerson’
-Financial Post

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/lynn-mcdonald-the-historical-record-vindicates-egerton-ryerson/ar-AAOfSmX?ocid=msedgntp

———————————

Careful SA or the narrative police will come for you.

Seems to me practically everything on the MSM is made up these days. We find out it wasn’t true sometime after the click and advertising cycle has run its course, if you bother to read all the way to the back pages.

#35 Dolce Vita on 09.09.21 at 4:56 pm

#18 TurnerNation

The true purpose of a Vax Passport, at least here in Italia, is to avoid lockdowns.

It keeps unvaxd people out of crowded indoor spaces.

People and business happy here using the Green Pass. I used it the past few days on the Frecciarossa Mille train, in Lago Como, Milano (e.g., to go see the Last Supper by Da Vinci), Verona and today in Pordenone (dining with my American friends).

No bitching, no bellyaching. Seamless. 10 seconds out of your life for the scan and verification.

—————–

Garth, you are always 10% behind me:

“When 80% of the herd is dosed”

It’s 90% Garth and what Italia is shooting for because of Delta. Not hard to do, only 3% are no vaxers in Italia.

Harder in Canada to achieve as vax rates continue to plummet. Today about 35.9K single dose vaxd, 46.3K second dose vaxd, 82.3K total = ABYSMAL rates (late June vaxing was clipping along at 500K doses per day).

Lucky to achieve 90% by late November, if that. Probably December now.

#36 Planetgoofy on 09.09.21 at 5:21 pm

#7 TurnerNation on 09.09.21 at 2:34 pm
——————————————
Me and the wife are no conspiratorialist but there is mounting evidence and the sign posts are all around if you just look up….
All govs are on board. We are extremely concerned as we have the resource’s to do what we like financially at an early age but it looks more and more like options are narrowing.

Yes the global warming, then climate change now a climate emergency wasn’t enough. The FPost spells our what I already know.
All the rhetoric the last 1.5 years….”stay calm……we are rounding the corner……stay home and flatten the curve” on and on we go.
Most people should have figured it out that nothing they have done makes any sense…nope very few.

#37 Penny Henny on 09.09.21 at 5:24 pm

#14 Penny Henny on 09.09.21 at 3:17 pm
According to TRREB the number of sales for August were 11% higher than the 15 year average.

They are 30% below peak levels. And 15-year averages don’t mean a whole lot given the population increase over that time. Realtor Frankenumbers. – Garth
///////////////

You are right. With increased populations we would expect an increase in sales however the 30% below peak levels that you mention is because in 2020 sales basically stopped for a few months in the spring and then rebounded very quickly once Covid case counts subsided. Last year at this time I think it was you that mentioned not to read too much into August’s (tremendous) sales numbers, but here you are now using it as a reference.
FYI the only other time August sales numbers surpassed 2021 numbers was in 2016. So third highest all time doesn’t sound so shabby.
Please have the decency to post this respectful comment and not ghost it.
Thank you.

Sorry. I forgot about your new gig with Re/Max. – Garth

#38 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.09.21 at 5:25 pm

HUCK FINN.
If there is one lesson in life, it would be, life is often unfair. This reality is presently on the back burner for a great number of the overindebted. I personally believe it is far better to be prepared for the inevitable financial hic up. Life is often risky, good guys do finish last, and Bankers will often disagree with you. Hard to believe, but some have been known to tell the odd porky lie. When your friendly bankers heart skips a beat you better believe life is not fair. Bankers are not like Huck Finn waiting round the bend with happy endings. When they pull up their sleeve, you will note a bold tattoo, “In God we trust, all others cash”. I feel better now, Amen Brother.

#39 Dolce Vita on 09.09.21 at 5:30 pm

Legault praises Tory Leader Erin O’Toole, says federal NDP and Liberals are dangerous for Québec…

https://twitter.com/globeandmail/status/1435986112426639367

L’est long version en Français:

https://twitter.com/RadioCanadaInfo/status/1435959645902880768

———–

New Federal Liberal campaign song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ

(trippy with Dolby Atmos headphones)

#40 DON on 09.09.21 at 5:31 pm

#8 Grandv!ew on 09.09.21 at 2:35 pm
Silly question but I have been wondering.

If the homeowners (mortgage holders) are not able to sustain 2-4% mortgage rate hike how they are going to sustain 6-8% yearly inflation.
And NO there is nothing transitional about inflation. Prices that are gone UP will NEVER come down. Sure, cost of borrowing is gone down and government can continue to play that card(continuation of QE) but for how much longer and at what cost to the society?

**************
They will rely on HELOCs…if the Banks are still willing.

#41 Reximus on 09.09.21 at 5:31 pm

They are 30% below peak levels. And 15-year averages don’t mean a whole lot given the population increase over that time. Realtor Frankenumbers. – Garth
——

huh? this past august was the third busiest august ever, it’s like following Simone Biles’ olympic career and saying well she only got a bronze, so that’s terrible for her sport

#42 Damifino on 09.09.21 at 5:34 pm

The PM must have told the GG that the current parliament is unworkable. She must have agreed, otherwise there wouldn’t have been an election called.

If there is yet another Liberal minority (with perhaps even fewer Liberal seats) how could T2 then claim the new parliament has magically regained functionality?

Having shown his hand (actually, having shot himself in the foot), he simply can’t. So wouldn’t the GG then be obliged to ask the remaining parties to try to cobble together a government that actually can work and select a new PM from among their ranks?

Why not? Sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

#43 Dave on 09.09.21 at 5:36 pm

At this point anyone that believes 80% of the herd being dosed will make a blind bit of difference to anything is delusional. Queue the booster shots and seasonal lock-down.

#44 Dolce Vita on 09.09.21 at 5:42 pm

RE:

Legault praises Tory Leader Erin O’Toole, says federal NDP and Liberals are dangerous for Québec…

———–

Forgot to mention the new Federal Conservative campaign song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSbBvKaM6sk&list=RDMM&index=1

(NOT as trippy with Dolby Atmos headphones)

Is that even music? – Garth

#45 Penny Henny on 09.09.21 at 5:43 pm

#37 Penny Henny on 09.09.21 at 5:24 pm
#14 Penny Henny on 09.09.21 at 3:17 pm
According to TRREB the number of sales for August were 11% higher than the 15 year average.

They are 30% below peak levels. And 15-year averages don’t mean a whole lot given the population increase over that time. Realtor Frankenumbers. – Garth
///////////////

You are right. With increased populations we would expect an increase in sales however the 30% below peak levels that you mention is because in 2020 sales basically stopped for a few months in the spring and then rebounded very quickly once Covid case counts subsided. Last year at this time I think it was you that mentioned not to read too much into August’s (tremendous) sales numbers, but here you are now using it as a reference.
FYI the only other time August sales numbers surpassed 2021 numbers was in 2016. So third highest all time doesn’t sound so shabby.
Please have the decency to post this respectful comment and not ghost it.
Thank you.

Sorry. I forgot about your new gig with Re/Max. – Garth

////////////

I’ll send you some business cards. Referrals are always welcome ;)

#46 Adam on 09.09.21 at 5:50 pm

#43 Dave on 09.09.21 at 5:36 pm
At this point anyone that believes 80% of the herd being dosed will make a blind bit of difference to anything is delusional. Queue the booster shots and seasonal lock-down.
———————————————–

I must agree with you. We are in a real cluster here. If 68% vaccinations isn’t helping I don’t see how 80% will make a difference either. Plus I don’t see how we hit 80% nationwide. The vaccines have been out almost 8 months now and Alberta is offering $100 to people and they still can’t get above 70%.

#47 Leichendiener on 09.09.21 at 5:52 pm

#12 Why not buy high when it’s uppa, uppa, uppa? I am a geezer so I’ve watched the re market drop. No big deal as long as you can wait out being underwater and the [email protected] is understanding. My neighbour was underwater for ten years. When they did sell they didn’t incur a loss but life didn’t happen before then.

#48 S.Bby on 09.09.21 at 5:53 pm

Microsoft indefinitely abandons plan to reopen US offices amid Covid worries

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/tech/microsoft-abandons-reopen-plan/index.html?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon

#49 3rd base on 09.09.21 at 6:00 pm

#43 Dave

At this point anyone that believes 80% of the herd being dosed will make a blind bit of difference to anything is delusional. Queue the booster shots and seasonal lock-down.

——

It will be a bit experimental here too with third dose, side effects and another dose of the nanoparticle/lipids in which mRNA is encased. No large sample data on this with Israel 3rd shot data just rolling out, but the vaccine is starting to be a bit like a therapy with repeat shots on the horizon. This therapy approach caused most Pharmas to abandon mRNA due to side effects they were seeing in studies. Fortunately the shots are spaced out more here, so perhaps that helps.

Scientists will be watching this one closely. Israel reports 1% seeking medical help after 3rd shot so far. Let’s hope there are no issues.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/israeli-survey-finds-3rd-pfizer-vaccine-dose-has-similar-side-effects-2nd-2021-08-08/

#50 Reximus on 09.09.21 at 6:02 pm

re vax passports; i had an old work acquaintance drop by our new office which is close to where an anti-vax passport rally was held in toronto; he was in it and decided to come and say hello.
I should say that he has always been a conspiracy nut, long before covid. so to no surprise he ploughed through his alex jones-ey predictable nonsense that included:
covid is a hoax;
masks are stupid to stop the hoax anyway;
vaccines are lies to make you a slave and passports are immoral, and it’s unconstitutional to force him to show one to get in a bar or wherever’.

I asked him if he would let a leper in his house and of course he thought about it and said no …I asked if there was a free anti-leprosy drug and a leper wanted in with proof he had taken the drug would he change his mind?

he just left

#51 WTF on 09.09.21 at 6:04 pm

“Meanwhile, the urban condo market travels in the opposite direction”.
————————————————————–
Perhaps, however you would be insane to buy at these price to income rent ratios. EG:

Just rented last month, fringe of Yaletown 2 bed bath 1100 sq ft, awesome false creek and park view $3200.

Condo right next door up for sale: ​1.8 mil.
monthly cost including mortgage/ tax/ strata/ insurance/ lost opportunity of 25% down payment (450k) would make the monthly hit over $8k per month. No thank you.

#52 BlogDog123 on 09.09.21 at 6:12 pm

re: #25 Game Show on 09.09.21 at 4:25 pm

===

Excellent idea! Make it a drinking game!

Everytime I watch these pointless debates, I usually turn it off after 10 minutes. Whichever debate or candidate, they end up spewing the same boilerplate talking points over ad naseum…

Buzzword bingo, or drink a shot when these phrases are said:

‘ investment in… ‘
‘ you had the chance but didn’t ‘
‘ cuts, cuts, cutting ‘
‘ taking from seniors ‘

Your stomach pumped at 11:30pm, if you are pickled drunk…

#53 Dolce Vita on 09.09.21 at 6:12 pm

#32 Woke up this morning…

Tourism recovering but NOT what it was pre Pandemic.

That’s the reason.

I Tifosi will be there for Ferrari. That’s all that matters.

Still, today Verona was packed with tourists – 1/2 hr wait just to see Romeo & Giulietta balcony (idiot turisti do not know you can see it from the archway without having to line up). Last Supper in Milano, line-ups. Lago Como, Bellagio – cars parked kilometers away along the road. Even in little Pordenone people tonight in droves doing their passeggiata and dining al fresco and indoors.

Italia having a blast without bitchy, whiny Canadian tourists about Vax Passports. Americani I was with did not mind at all. Not one bit.

There were tourists today from all over the World that I met. All had the Green Pass.

Meanwhile in Canada…

#54 zxcvbnm on 09.09.21 at 6:16 pm

#21 Property Accountant

I believe this 100% (not that I like it, it’s garbage, but one must recognize what’s happening, not like it)

#55 Bill on 09.09.21 at 6:22 pm

So what if inventory levels are low (for now, that is)? It’s the continued downward trend in sales that is the topic du jour. And, that has been despite “low inventory”.

Besides if there isn’t much to pick and choose from and at the right price, no one “has” to buy anything let alone already-inflated housing stock.

#56 Dolce Vita on 09.09.21 at 6:32 pm

#32 Woke up this morning…

Italia unlike idiot UK well aware of what happens with mass crowds and Delta even outside (Wembley Euro Final Italia vs. England, 60K fans):

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/the-wembley-variant-more-than-3000-caught-covid-at-euros-final-1161272

https://www.deccanherald.com/sports/euro-2020-final-at-wembley-was-a-superspreader-event-1021987.html

Better safe than sorry. Monza would be full if not for the Delta precautions, 15-16K vs. 28K capacity:

https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/09/08/news/f1_gp_monza_30_degli_spettatori_da_olanda_per_tifare_verstappen_solo_16mila_biglietti_venduti-316897798/

Still, today Verona was packed with tourists – 1/2 hr wait just to see Romeo & Giulietta balcony (idiot turisti do not know you can see it from the archway without having to line up). Last Supper in Milano, line-ups. Lago Como, Bellagio – cars parked for a kilometer away along the road. Even in little Pordenone people tonight in droves doing their passeggiata and dining al fresco and indoors.

Italia still having a blast without Monza being full. Americani I was with did not mind at all. Neither did the crush of tourists still here in Italia I saw this weekend.

They were happy to be here.

13K fewer at Monza means they will have plenty else to see and do in Italia, unlike Canada. And no super spreader event as a result.

#57 Bezengy on 09.09.21 at 6:34 pm

Meanwhile, the urban condo market travels in the opposite direction.

——————

I drove past a traffic jam in the opposite direction today heading from Toronto to Niagara. The jam-up started in Toronto and ended a little past Hamilton. Almost a complete standstill for 70km. I’m pretty sure those condo prices in the big smoke will continue to rise as the Toronto traffic is unbearable along all major routes into the city.

#58 Joseph R. on 09.09.21 at 6:38 pm

#42 Damifino on 09.09.21 at 5:34 pm
The PM must have told the GG that the current parliament is unworkable. She must have agreed, otherwise there wouldn’t have been an election called.

If there is yet another Liberal minority (with perhaps even fewer Liberal seats) how could T2 then claim the new parliament has magically regained functionality?

Having shown his hand (actually, having shot himself in the foot), he simply can’t. So wouldn’t the GG then be obliged to ask the remaining parties to try to cobble together a government that actually can work and select a new PM from among their ranks?

Why not? Sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

———————————————————–

False.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/MarleauMontpetit/DocumentViewer.aspx?Sec=Ch08&Seq=7

It’s at the Prime Minister’s discretion to drop the writ of election (dissolution of parliament).

“.. dissolution is a prerogative act of the Crown, normally taken on the advice of the Prime Minister and proclaimed under the Great Seal of Canada by the Governor General.”

By the way, in constitutional law, “on the advice of the Prime Minister” isn’t a suggestion.

#59 Cto on 09.09.21 at 6:43 pm

2% vacancy and dropping,
Don’t get it…
I hear stories oh hoards of condos left empty, some buildings with entire floors vacant, yet 2%.?
They’re building more towers in Toronto than any other city with100s condos each.
Is toronto the fasted growing city in NA????
I don’t get it, someone please explain…

#60 Garth's Son Drake on 09.09.21 at 6:55 pm

We need to clear some things up Garth.

The return to work is not happening.

Microsoft just suspended return to work indefinitely.

Have you seen the exponential rise in cases lately? Everyone in their dog is catching Covid.

Alberta just suspended surgeries.

BC is re-scheduling tons of surgeries. Wards are filling up. Death counts are climbing.

Jason Santeford, managing director of the Vancouver office for global architecture and design firm Gensler, said that almost all of the clients the company is working with to recreate post-COVID office spaces had plans to bring some employees back in anticipation of the reopening. Many of these companies were scrambling to get their offices updated by Sept. 7, but Santeford said those plans have now been largely pushed back.

We are in way worse shape right now than last year at this time.

Where is the pandemic pay? Where is the stimulus? Right – it is all ending in the US now and in another month here in Canada.

Funny how a market correction is underway right now.

Can’t fault Trudeau for the snap election and rejigging his governing cycle timing. Best time window of opportunity is now (actually a few months ago), but nobody predicted how fast things would take a turn this fall.

Get in while you can, because things are going to get ugly.

School is back in with no safety measures. Bang head against wall.

Well, I am going to make some popcorn to enjoy this show.

#61 Public Service Announcement on 09.09.21 at 7:03 pm

Coinbase is going down like Mt. Gox.

No joke.

They are freezing the accounts of lots of people I know right now for no reason, including mine with a customer service AI bot as the only contact using a broken feedback loop saying your account is good, then saying you need to recover it, without access for several days.

What a garbage platform.

And this thing is listed on the NASDAQ.

Quality.

#62 TO Housing on 09.09.21 at 7:07 pm

This is not good news for both renters and prospective new home buyers if rental prices increase and mortgage rate slowly increase meaning housing prices will not drop in any meaningful way, this does not help the under 30 crowd in Toronto at all, by the time houses drop in any meaningful way could be 5-10 years down the road and their life choices could have changed to not having children thus no need for a 4 bedroom townie in Richmond Hill.

#63 Joseph R. on 09.09.21 at 7:13 pm

#28 Planetgoofy on 09.09.21 at 4:34 pm
#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.09.21 at 3:34 pm
@#141 Shawn Allen

““the commitment needs to be a commitment to grow the economy and the budget will balance itself.”
++++
The “budget will never balance itself” if the govt spends billions more than it takes in.

The only thing “beneath me” is gas….. and only for a few seconds.

The fact that Trudeau said that proves one of two things.
He’s incredibly ignorant or incredibly arrogant….
Either way.
Vote accordingly
——————————
Good one Fartz
Ya Firstly, governments know diddly squat about growing the economy. They know how do dig holes and fill’em back up. Business people…..you know entrepreneurs like Paterson and Bezos do.
If we can get going at a decent clip maybe by 2070?
I think a mushroom cloud before that.

—————————————————-

Budget will balance itself is a leaf off Trickle-down economics e.g.: Reaganomics.

Arthur Laffer, who was in Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board proposed a famous curve relationship, that bear’s his name, between taxation and government revenue:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laffercurve.asp

The budget will balance itself by lower taxes on the rich is the core of Reaganomics.

Dick Cheney: “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.”

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/barro/files/bw-mar1.pdf

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.09.21 at 7:16 pm

@#57 Bezengy

“I drove past a traffic jam in the opposite direction today heading from Toronto to Niagara. The jam-up started in Toronto and ended a little past Hamilton. Almost a complete standstill for 70km. ”

++++

Ahhh yessss.
The “back to school” traffic nightmare.

Vancouver traffic seems oddly light this week.
The last days of Summer before reality, rain and wrecks hit the city streets.
I think next week will be pure grid lock hell.

#65 Faron on 09.09.21 at 7:28 pm

#27 Sail Away on 09.09.21 at 4:31 pm

I can’t imagine coming out of the wilderness and feeling an instant need to troll out some stories from one’s MSN feed onto a blog comments section nobody reads. But, I’m crazy, so…

#66 Running Shoes on 09.09.21 at 7:29 pm

When a company like coinbase announces they accidentally sent 2FA to hundreds of thousands of the wrong people in error recently and you have money on their platform, you put on your running shoes and try to get in and out as fast as you can with your money.

That ain’t a run. THIS IS A RUN.

Shout out to:

QuadrigaCX

Einstein Echange

and Christine.

#67 Rosa on 09.09.21 at 7:31 pm

If you people that covid and whatever virus they keep bringing up will be the cause of economic collapse you are a really being fooled.

They shut down the world economies for 18 months. The first clue was they have been dropping interest rates and taxing saving, responsible people and rewarding extreme debt junkies all around the world from consumers to businesses to governments.

The ruling elite are marxists, communists, socialists, control freaks and that is the real reason they are doing this to the world. This is a world war against all people plain and simple. Lets see if they allow me to post this.

#68 Italia will look like Israel pretty soon on 09.09.21 at 7:35 pm

Just you wait dolce Vita, just you wait

ROTFLMAO

VAXX ARE VAX..if you know what I mean

#69 Vic on 09.09.21 at 7:36 pm

Polls are turning. The new Liberal ads today are shredding O’Toole’s hypocrisy. Bernier is moving up as well.

A Trudeau coalition may morph into a Liberal majority if this keeps up.

Interesting debate tonight for sure…..

#70 30% Pay Raise on 09.09.21 at 7:40 pm

Anyone object to front line staff getting a 30% pay raise?

Health care, teachers, you name it.

Teachers have been thrown under the bus.

Who in their right mind would chose such an occupation now that this pandemic is endemic and never ending.

And in BC they will protest you outside the hospital as if you are some criminal.

In Alberta they roll back your wage for such a good job, unless of course you are in the governing party of that province. Then you can just hide out and still get big raises.

Put the money where the mouth is.

Pandemic pay top up + shift premium hazard pay + 30% wage increase.

#71 DON on 09.09.21 at 7:45 pm

If I read yesterday’s headline correctly, BC has limited rent increases in 2022 to 1.5%.

#72 mike from mtl on 09.09.21 at 7:58 pm

#60 Garth’s Son Drake on 09.09.21 at 6:55 pm
We need to clear some things up Garth.

The return to work is not happening.

Microsoft just suspended return to work indefinitely.

Have you seen the exponential rise in cases lately? Everyone in their dog is catching Covid.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Ditto, plans for ‘guidance’ coming in Oct, not this year probably spring 2022 if ever.

In QC like NY we’ve unfortunately already had a head start on blowing away most of the target demographic. Despite now having more ‘cases’ than neighbour ON with around double the population, deaths attributed flat low single digit per week. Trying to hide is an expensive, destructive way to buy time.

Reading from around the real world stats (human trials) seems we’ve been sold a marketing fib on the vax, should be more like an Influenza therapeutic. Given that, we are going about this all the wrong way. Middle aged plus yes got to watch out, forcing the kids 12+ soon to be 0+ is a total waste.. send those vials to countries with 0%. Oh right the poor people don’t count sorry about that.

#73 Faron on 09.09.21 at 7:59 pm

#67 Rosa on 09.09.21 at 7:31 pm

The ruling elite are marxists, communists, socialists,

Oh, is that why wealth becomes less and less equally divided with each passing year? Pretty crappy maxommalists IMO.

#74 Damifino on 09.09.21 at 8:06 pm

#58 Joseph R.

Thanks for the link. I take it there is no circumstance in which the GG would refuse to dissolve parliament.

One wonders… why is it necessary to ask?

#75 cuke and tomato picker on 09.09.21 at 8:06 pm

We will watch the entire debate and make comments
about the leaders presentation etc and believe it is our
duty as a citizen of this great country. We have already sent in our mail in ballots. We can’t understand why people are so negative and can not believe that people
would hassle any of the party leaders also the anti vax protesters are mislead. We feel very blessed to live in Canada very thankful.

#76 S.Bby on 09.09.21 at 8:06 pm

#50 Reximus

Seriously?
Leprosy is curable with antibiotics.

#77 Quintilian on 09.09.21 at 8:25 pm

67 Rosa Needs to learn economics and and also get counselling

“The ruling elite are marxists, communists, socialists, control freaks and that is the real reason they are doing this to the world.”

The root of all the economic evils at this point lies on the fact that the monetarist have had their way for far too long.

The propounders of monetary policy have generally been right wing nuts, and promoters of the free market economy.

I have no objections to free market economics as long as the rules apply equally to everyone.

The irony is that money is the lifeblood of the economy, yet command economy suppression tactics are used to stack the deck.

The death of the invisible hand.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.09.21 at 8:27 pm

@#69 Vic.

“A Trudeau coalition may morph into a Liberal majority if this keeps up.”

+++

Enjoying a legal spliff I see.

Trudeau in a majority?
Pfft.
While I agree that O’Toole has underperformed as expected….
Trudeau will be lucky if he’s still leader of the Liberal Party this time next year.
But he’ll have all those nifty tailor made suits and expensive shoes to “survive” private life.

#79 Proud Canuck! on 09.09.21 at 8:38 pm

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#80 S.Bby on 09.09.21 at 8:39 pm

Walmart is ending these bonuses for store workers

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/business/walmart-quarterly-bonuses-minimum-wage/index.html?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon

New York (CNN Business)Walmart will end its quarterly bonuses for US store workers in January after it raises its hourly minimum wage from $11 to $12, eliminating a longstanding perk for workers.

#81 S.Bby on 09.09.21 at 8:44 pm

For the dog lovers here:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/tech/roomba-ai-avoids-dog-poop/index.html?utm_source=optzlynewmarketribbon

The new Roomba uses AI to avoid smearing dog poop all over your house.

#82 Vic on 09.09.21 at 8:52 pm

Just watching some debate reports on TVO.

All agree that O’Toole’s vague and robotic “we have a plan for that” jargon has turned off voters, and Trudeau’s passion has done the opposite.

Some Ontario locations also show the PPC polling at about 11%, they say.

I think we’ve reached a turning point. This looks like a big downswing coming for the Conservatives in the last ten days.

Unless something big happens tonight, I am calling for a Liberal majority now.

#83 Sara on 09.09.21 at 9:11 pm

Sail Away,

I thought you grabbed your toys, stomped off, and said you wouldn’t be back for 2 or 3 weeks.

#84 Sara on 09.09.21 at 9:13 pm

#72 mike from mtl on 09.09.21 at 7:58 pm

Everyone in their dog is catching Covid.

===============

What the…?

#85 Faron on 09.09.21 at 9:18 pm

Anyone have thoughts on the US fed’s Kaplan trading ES (S&P 500 futures) while helping to set fed policy? Not unlike Nancy Pelosi’s options trading in names that are HQed in the state she represents. Crazy times. When the fraud comes tumbling down it’s gonna be messy!

#86 Cici on 09.09.21 at 9:25 pm

I’m watching the debate and so far, here’s the verdict:

O’Toole is doing a stellar job, as is Blanchet, whose English is very impressive.

Also, I really like Annalie Paul, even if I don’t agree with her overall stance on several key issues. But she is direct, well-spoken, intelligent and refreshingly honest. And she never sounds like a “salesman”. And tonight she is angry, and it looks great on her ;-)

#87 Faron on 09.09.21 at 9:27 pm

#83 Sara on 09.09.21 at 9:11 pm
Sail Away,

I thought you grabbed your toys, stomped off, and said you wouldn’t be back for 2 or 3 weeks.

LOL. If Starlink ever becomes non vaporware, we will be able to enjoy Sail Away 24/7/365. One can dream. Wild guess, but self control may not be his strong suit.

#88 MexInVan on 09.09.21 at 9:36 pm

#50 Reximus on 09.09.21 at 6:02 pm

I asked him if he would let a leper in his house and of course he thought about it and said no …I asked if there was a free anti-leprosy drug and a leper wanted in with proof he had taken the drug would he change his mind?

he just left

—————-

False equivalence

Unvaccinated ≠ Sick

If the leper took the drug he would not be a leper.

#89 Defcon 1 on 09.09.21 at 9:36 pm

Oh $#!+!

Trudeau is in meltdown mode!

And we’re only 30 min in.

#90 Kid Creole on 09.09.21 at 9:46 pm

The Cons do need a proper campaign song, I suggest Gina Gina. I know T2 was only a ‘snow board instructor’ but it’s close enough

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi1ISPKADuk

#91 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 9:47 pm

#16 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 3:25 pm
My prediction. Jagmeet will tell three anecdotes of people he talked to.
Xxxxxxx
That’s one.

#92 Tripp on 09.09.21 at 9:53 pm

Stephen Harper’s name came up at least a couple of times during tonight’s debate. Because it’s 2021, and the blame game is still ongoing after six years.

#93 Stone on 09.09.21 at 9:56 pm

There are bidding wars among tenants. Landlords are picking renters with the strongest covenants. Urban flight was hasty.

———

Isn’t that what landlords always do? How is it different now?

Or should renters genuflect or simply prostrate themselves to their landlord uberlords on a go forward basis?

#94 DON on 09.09.21 at 10:05 pm

First leader who mentions inflation control gets my vote.

What a dismal leadership debate.

No one has a real plan going forward for anything.

No one has any real ideas.

A bunch of kids spouting half truths and blatant lies. The Greens should have a climate economic transition plan…lay it out. One thing is for sure…none all these party leaders could fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

Blah blah blah is all I heard.

But yes everyone in the ‘Village’ should have access to clean drinking water, hard stop.

The bloc leader is fumny…lol.

Close election.

Eddie Murphy should be the moderator…raw.

#95 DON on 09.09.21 at 10:08 pm

#92 Tripp on 09.09.21 at 9:53 pm
Stephen Harper’s name came up at least a couple of times during tonight’s debate. Because it’s 2021, and the blame game is still ongoing after six years.

**********
His smell lingers on. Made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

#96 DON on 09.09.21 at 10:11 pm

#91 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 9:47 pm
#16 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 3:25 pm
My prediction. Jagmeet will tell three anecdotes of people he talked to.
Xxxxxxx
That’s one.

********
Two now…

#97 Yukon Elvis on 09.09.21 at 10:28 pm

#90 Kid Creole on 09.09.21 at 9:46 pm

The Cons do need a proper campaign song,
++++++++++++++++++
And their campaign battle cry should be “Lie Like a Liberal”.

#98 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 10:29 pm

#16 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 3:25 pm
My prediction. Jagmeet will tell three anecdotes of people he talked to.
Xxxxxxxxxx
Ding ding ding.

Now what was that thing about page 14?

#99 mike from mtl on 09.09.21 at 10:43 pm

#84 Sara on 09.09.21 at 9:13 pm
#72 mike from mtl on 09.09.21 at 7:58 pm

Everyone in their dog is catching Covid.

===============

What the…?
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Do please list out the inaccuracies.

Personally I am Pfizer’d due to the low risk benefit, a teenager or less has almost non-zero risk to the real deal but not an equally non-zero risk to Pfizer. Yeah your head has been done in that there’s this airborne black death, but reality is not spin.

Let’s be real the oldies trying to buy time are playing with fire, the current vaccines are nowhere near sterilising and cannot due to how this bug works. If you’re the right person, you’re a target. With unrealistic worldwide 100% coverage there’s always going to be the outliners and duds.

Who can you blame then?

#100 Scaron on 09.09.21 at 10:55 pm

87 Faron on 09.09.21 at 9:27 pm

…..Wild guess, but self control may not be his strong suit.

——-

Lol, and self awareness is apparently not one of your strong suits.

#101 Planetgoofy on 09.09.21 at 11:41 pm

#69 Vic on 09.09.21 at 7:36 pm
Polls are turning. The new Liberal ads today are shredding O’Toole’s hypocrisy. Bernier is moving up as well.

A Trudeau coalition may morph into a Liberal majority if this keeps up.
Interesting debate tonight for sure….\
————————————-
You actually think ads amount to anything? Especially the truth.
Debate added up to nothing. Zero resolution to anything.
T2 as always the biggest idiot. The Green gal shows better and smarter than socks.
What are you talking about ….Max?
Why even chime in?

#102 Lead Paint on 09.09.21 at 11:59 pm

#27 Sail Away on 09.09.21 at 4:31 pm
Who are the baddies again?

The instigators!

#103 Lead Paint on 09.10.21 at 12:03 am

#30 Nonplused on 09.09.21 at 4:44 pm

Since it’s crappy tire you won’t get 35 uses out of it.

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.10.21 at 1:29 am

91 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 9:47 pm
#16 Phylis on 09.09.21 at 3:25 pm
My prediction. Jagmeet will tell three anecdotes of people he talked to.
Xxxxxxx
That’s one.
——————-
Jagmeet is taking lessons from CEF, and it works.

#105 Vic on 09.10.21 at 7:53 am

Messy debate last night, the format and interruptions was poor.

All these candidates need to have pacifiers stuck in their mouths to shut up, lol!

I would say Annamie came out best, Justin maybe 2nd, O’Toole last.

The die is cast, folks. O’Toole’ support is melting away, Bernier will be stealing more and more of his votes and Conservatives will likely be shut out of Quebec and have some surprise losses in the west.

The NDP can stop spending on ads since they are pretty much stuck inbetween. Trudeau is promising the most cash back gifts, and people usually look at their wallets first when they vote. O’Toole’s promise to help seniors won’t even take effect until his next term after 2026, which means nothing.

A Liberal majority is on the way. Even if a slight minority in the worst case, the NDP will be there to prop them up.

Watch the poll numbers shift over the next week. The trend will be unstoppable. Been there, done that.

Erin, after your loss, don’t worry. Your caucus “has a plan” for you, lol!

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.10.21 at 8:33 am

Dreadful format on the debates.

The “moderator” spent 50% of the time interrupting and trying to hut them down.
I would rather watch them talk over each other and harangue then have ” a “stop in play” every 30 seconds

Should have let a Hockey Night in Canada referee tweet a whistle when the topic was dead.

As for the “players”.

My god what a bland, politically correct, mindless bunch of duds.
The vanilla pudding was thick and deep my friends.
Everyone got their “empowerment”, “inclusivity”, “Anti racist”, “Sex equality”, “anti Gay” buzzwords down pat

No one was able to lose control and get caught because the moderator would stop the play.
Sometimes it isnt about the rules…just let them talk.

An annoying snore fest of squabbling children in the sandbox.

No major hits or runs by any of them.
Trudeau wasnt his usually wheezy, pompous self. O’Toole was “Mr Bland”. Singh was relaxed and chummy. Paul was too busy never getting to the point.
The Separatist was irrelevant to the rest of Canada.

O’Toole had a chance to score some points and he, predictably, stuck to his message and never went off script.

What a complete waste of time for undecided voters.

#107 Woke up this morning... on 09.10.21 at 8:58 am

#105 Vic

What are you smoking Vic?

Justin had his buns handed to him yesterday! Nearly KO’ed, but lost big time on the score card.

The man who just had 6 years to do things was accusing O’Toole of not getting things done? Good optics there. 30 minutes in the pressure was too much. I imagine someone sent a vibrate signal to a phone in his pocket for Justin to shut up because he was doing himself no good.

My highlight moment – where he makes jokes about not needing to put his 73 year old mother in a Long Term Care home – could there be anything more damning that that about his confidence in how LTC issues have been handled in this country? He WOULD NOT put his mother into this LTC disaster system – EVER!

#108 Shawn Allen on 09.10.21 at 9:19 am

And The Winner of the Debate Was…

…clearly the moderator.

She actually debated the leaders on several points right from the start and scored good points.

She had them under almost total control like a teacher or something.

For sure she won, hands down.

I watched about half of it before tuning out in complete and utter boredom.

#109 Shawn Allen on 09.10.21 at 9:23 am

Crappy Tire?

#103 Lead Paint on 09.10.21 at 12:03 am
#30 Nonplused on 09.09.21 at 4:44 pm

Since it’s crappy tire you won’t get 35 uses out of it.

******************************
Canadian Tire has been an incredibly well run retailer for years. In particular since about 2010 it has not missed a beat. Check its stock price gains.

It’s real Canadian success story. Something to celebrate.

It’s rare for it to be called Crappy Tire these days. Clearly its millions of repeat customers disagree with you.

Did you forget to buy shares? It’s probably not too late.

#110 Steven Rowlandson on 09.10.21 at 9:27 am

“What’s there to debate? Trudeau is the worst PM in Canada’s history. O’Toole and the Cons are the only ones who have a chance of removing him.”

Be that as it may be #1 The conservatives will be no improvement and will likely out borrow and spend the liberals and continue the current covid policies. It is their nature and fundemental change to the system is illegal in this country. Salvation at the ballot box is illegal because an alternative to the nwo and communism by the back door is illegal. The first step towards sanity and freedom starts with finding and accepting the truth.

#111 IHCTD9 on 09.10.21 at 9:46 am

#103 Lead Paint on 09.10.21 at 12:03 am
#30 Nonplused on 09.09.21 at 4:44 pm

Since it’s crappy tire you won’t get 35 uses out of it.
___

I owned one of those buzzy little direct drive 3 gallon made in china compressors from CT years ago, and I truly did not get the tank pumped up 35 times before the motor died. Wasn’t worth the cheap price.

After that I got a 30+ year old CH 6CFM x 200 psi 20 gallon made in USA unit. Pulley drive pump, quiet, reliable, and serviceable if it ever needs it.

Bought it used off Kijiji from an elderly gent who was selling all his tools. He had a sweet like new, compact tractor on the block too. Full cab, FEL, blower on a 3 point, 4wd – super nice.

#112 Woke up this morning... on 09.10.21 at 9:48 am

#56 Dolce Vita

Without the crowd, Monza is…empty.

What good is that Grand Prix when there is no sea of humanity below what is in my view the best podium in F1?

But that doesn’t matter. The greenwashing hybrid engine nonsense with all the driver aids and software automation has completely ruined this amazing spectacle.

Funny this environmental image push in motorsport, because there is little doubt that the carbon footprint has increased significantly with these fake green engines over what was there in the past, and yet somehow they keep trying to convince us it is more environmentally friendly.

I gotta tell you, there is a broad push for everyone to sound robotic, fake and tell lies not supported by actual data.

#113 Dharma Bum on 09.10.21 at 10:03 am

I received my mail-in ballot today. Yahooooo! No need to line up at the local gym to cast my vote amidst the half-wits that get hired to administer the voting booths. (Where do they FIND these neanderthals?)
Anyway, guess who I’m NOT voting for.
The guy makes me wanna puuuuuuuke!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRDSOqxEgo4

#114 IHCTD9 on 09.10.21 at 10:19 am

#92 Tripp on 09.09.21 at 9:53 pm
Stephen Harper’s name came up at least a couple of times during tonight’s debate. Because it’s 2021, and the blame game is still ongoing after six years.
___

Seems like 100 years have passed since Harper was running the show. Back when our Federal deficit was less than 1 Billion.

Yes you read that right – LESS than 1 Billion.

I imagine Harper is just shaking his head at the disaster we’ve brought upon ourselves since 2015.

I believe there are many Canadians who are surprised at how badly things have gone under Trudeau – which is crazy. I guess we got what we deserved.

#115 My Body My Choice on 09.10.21 at 10:27 am

#57 Bezengy

“I drove past a traffic jam in the opposite direction today heading from Toronto to Niagara … almost a complete standstill for 70km. I’m pretty sure those condo prices in the big smoke will continue to rise as the Toronto traffic is unbearable along all major routes into the city.”

_________________________________

The question should not be “can I afford to buy a place in Toronto” but “why the hell would I want to live in Toronto let alone buy a place there?”

I grew up in Toronto in the 60s, left in the 90s. Toronto was a beautiful city up until the 1980’s, then all downhill from there. Today it’s a Mad-Max Road Warrior Omega Man hellscape.

The CNE (Ex) cancelled again – two years in a row. Ontario Place closed for a couple of decades. Sad.

#116 Penny Henny on 09.10.21 at 11:05 am

I went to go vote this morning at 9:30 thinking that I would beat the rush and lo and behold there was about 50 people already in line. My neighbourhood does have a lot of old fogeys so maybe that explains the line up. But to me this means that people are looking for a change.
My riding (Niagara Center) is currently held by the Liberals. Can you say Big Blue Wave? I knew you could.

#117 Dragonfly 58 on 09.10.21 at 11:06 am

Canada has so many problems. Infrastructure needs and overall cost of living are massive problems for a very large percentage of Canadians. And young adults are in many cases really behind the eight ball. They can’t all become highly skilled / paid tradespersons or professionals. Many will end up in pretty ordinary jobs that barely pay enough to live on. The outlook for anyone in the middle income and lower class is pretty bleak.
I was born in the late 1950’s , grew up in a single income family where my father had a very average job. No post secondary education , no trade qualification. Shift supervisor in the Parts Dept. of a major truck dealership. That income supported the family very nicely { 3 kids , an actually quite nice suburban home , and no debt beyond a reasonable mortgage on the house}
Wife and I have far more education [ undergrad degree plus Tech . College plus a trade qualification I earned in my 20’s, wife Masters degree]
And way more demanding / responsible jobs than either of our parents , me a very Federally regulated Transportation Industry Tech. specialist { recently retired }, wife a Health Care Professional.
And a standard of living not one bit better than our parents. Possibly even slightly lower than either of the ” Blue Collar ” households we grew up in.
What awaits our children ? What went wrong for middle class Canada ? What would it take to reverse the decline ?
I don’t see any of the current leaders or party platforms making any overall, positive difference for the majority of Canadians .

#118 IHCTD9 on 09.10.21 at 11:17 am

Post-Trudeau Canada is a new landscape for Canadians to absorb. An air pig pressurized to double its capacity, just waiting for the 2-3 psi more that will cause it to blow into smithereens.

As Canadian prosperity continues to decline under Trudeau, it’s pretty easy to see where we’re all headed.

I like minimalism going forward, right alongside tax and fee avoidance. Just look at everything you actually need in life – these are the things Trudeau has caused to balloon in price. Food, Shelter, Energy, more. All the junk you don’t need will keep getting cheaper, but the essentials will keep getting rate-pumped, carbon taxed, and inflated until you can’t pay the bill to live here anymore.

The Canadian middle class is going to find itself struggling just to maintain their standard of living – forget about actually improving your quality of life.

I’ve decided I’m not gonna do the Trudeau dog-paddle, those that do are the small group who will be beat to death paying for our 6 calamitous years (and counting) of Liberal “government”. So instead, I’ll avoid taxes like the plague, slash my energy usage top to bottom, and if food keeps inflating and shrinkflating – a little home based food production isn’t out of the question either.

Now is a good time to keep things manageable, and become unmanageable.

#119 Rex Sweat on 09.10.21 at 11:28 am

A sudden Hail Mary for a badly faltering Justin from our Civil Service. Bless them.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-gains-90200-jobs-unemployment-rate-falls-to-7-1

And just in time too. Right when a drowning Justin needed a life preserver in the middle of an election . Miracle timing. Not politically timed at all. Of course not. Oh to be a fly on the wall.

#120 Steve on 09.10.21 at 11:31 am

Garth, If we do see a correction mirroring the graph and 2017 surely we won’t see a return to 2017’s prices? What % of decline in housing prices seems reasonable to you? 10%? 20% ?

Personally I don’t see homes that were 750K in durham 2 years ago and are now 1.3- 1.4 Mill going back below the Million dollar mark.

Thoughts?

#121 FriedEggs on 09.10.21 at 11:35 am

My favourite part about the debate was watching Leylah Fernandez

#122 Don Guillermo on 09.10.21 at 11:53 am

#121 FriedEggs on 09.10.21 at 11:35 am
My favourite part about the debate was watching Leylah Fernandez
************************************
No kidding! Go Leylah go! She’s delightful.

Tomorrows matchup with Emma will be two unseeded teenagers in the finals. Great for the sport.

#123 Faron on 09.10.21 at 11:54 am

#100 Scaron on 09.09.21 at 10:55 pm

1) Sail Away prides himself on self control and even claims that addicts should just “choose” to not use drugs. He has set a high bar that even he can’t leap.

2) I’m pathologically self-aware. Trust me.

#124 IHCT9 on 09.10.21 at 11:57 am

#117 Dragonfly 58 on 09.10.21 at 11:06 am

**”What awaits our children ?”**

Big bills, low services, rent payments, taxes.

**”What went wrong for middle class Canada?”**

First globalization, then massive immigration, and finally Trudeau.

**”What would it take to reverse the decline?”**

Too late now, thanks to Trudeau. It could be fixed via decades of austerity and tax increases – but that ain’t gonna happen.

**”I don’t see any of the current leaders or party platforms making any overall, positive difference for the majority of Canadians.”**

Agreed, and anyone that might give it a shot would be booted out of power at the soonest opportunity.

#125 Paul on 09.10.21 at 1:06 pm

#116 Penny Henny on 09.10.21 at 11:05 am
I went to go vote this morning at 9:30 thinking that I would beat the rush and lo and behold there was about 50 people already in line. My neighbourhood does have a lot of old fogeys so maybe that explains the line up. But to me this means that people are looking for a change.
My riding (Niagara Center) is currently held by the Liberals. Can you say Big Blue Wave? I knew you could.
————————————————————————————————
Yes busy early, I Drive people to the polling station that need a ride going steady so far.

#126 IHCTD9 on 09.10.21 at 1:12 pm

#115 My Body My Choice on 09.10.21 at 10:27 am
#57 Bezengy

“I drove past a traffic jam in the opposite direction today heading from Toronto to Niagara … almost a complete standstill for 70km. I’m pretty sure those condo prices in the big smoke will continue to rise as the Toronto traffic is unbearable along all major routes into the city.”

_________________________________

The question should not be “can I afford to buy a place in Toronto” but “why the hell would I want to live in Toronto let alone buy a place there?”

I grew up in Toronto in the 60s, left in the 90s. Toronto was a beautiful city up until the 1980’s, then all downhill from there. Today it’s a Mad-Max Road Warrior Omega Man hellscape.

The CNE (Ex) cancelled again – two years in a row. Ontario Place closed for a couple of decades. Sad.
_______

Yep, in the 80’s a trip to Toronto was a day to look forward to. No 100km long traffic jams, no piles of semi trucks veering all over the road, no massive lineups at every venue.

I am ~200 km away from Toronto, and returning Toronto traffic at the end of a long weekend slows the 401 down out here 0-60km/hr. Meanwhile, Eastbound is totally normal whizzing along at 120+. It started happening about 4 maybe 5 years ago. I guess another 4-5 years will see totally stopped long weekend traffic for 200+ km outside the GTA? How stupid are Canadians?

I’m already coming to grips with the realization that 200km is not far enough away from the GTA anymore – and that is crazy. We’re likely to get overrun here before too long, it’s already started – and it’ll be the same shit-show here as in the older GTA bedroom communities. High house prices, high insurance rates, and clogged amenities and roads filled with half-asleep drivers. I don’t want to be anywhere near a pile of crazies who are living 200 km away from their place of work.

#127 Quintilian on 09.10.21 at 1:17 pm

” All the world’s a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances;”

The posters who took the debate for anything more than entertainment, need help.

#128 the Jaguar on 09.10.21 at 1:23 pm

A beautiful day in the Stampede City. Just returned after casting my vote. “Iffen ya’ll are reading this Len Webber, I put my X next your name”. Bit of a line up when I arrived ‘en punto’ at the community center. Seems like this election counts more than some others may have in the past. How about that Legault? I just love him to pieces…

Ponzie: after voting I swung over to Edelwiess Village which is a wonderful place that specializes in all things German. Wonderful schnitzels and everything else under the sun that is German. Zoop to nutz. Gemütlichkeit! You must visit the place if you are ever in town…

#129 SoggyShorts on 09.10.21 at 1:29 pm

#70 30% Pay Raise on 09.09.21 at 7:40 pm
Anyone object to front line staff getting a 30% pay raise
Health care, teachers, you name it.

**************
How much is that? Health & schoolboard spending is over 300 Billion most of which is labour.
So where will we get an extra ~100 Billion per year to pay for it?
We could confiscate all of the wealth of all Canadian billionaires and that would get us through the first 2 years, but then what?

#130 Bdwy on 09.10.21 at 2:09 pm

FriedEggs on 09.10.21 at 11:35 am

My favourite part about the debate was watching Leylah Fernandez

#122 Don Guillermo on 09.10.21 at 11:53 am

************************************
No kidding! Go Leylah go! She’s delightfu

………..
I dont reaaly watch much sports, playing is still more fun but what ive been reading this kid looks amazing. Will be watching the final

#131 Bdwy on 09.10.21 at 3:29 pm

The wife did her last day in the office yesterday.

We are free. (Covid nonsense aside)

I can still remember “freedom 55” ads on tv, i had no idea what they were talking about.
My wife was the planner and taught me.
We are both 54.

The plan was to travel. Like the whole world (ex china) but im not wearing a mask all day so maybe its just back to our usual town in mexico for the winter until covid blows over.

I imagine its still normal there.

#132 Scaron on 09.10.21 at 5:47 pm

123 Faron on 09.10.21 at 11:54 am
#100 Scaron on 09.09.21 at 10:55 pm

1) Sail Away prides himself on self control and even claims that addicts should just “choose” to not use drugs. He has set a high bar that even he can’t leap.

2) I’m pathologically self-aware. Trust me.

…just not self aware enough to recognize that your self control is somewhat lacking here? I mean, how many times have you written ‘sorry Garth just one more tonight’… followed by ten more posts?