The pumpers

With 17 days left until the big vote, the elephant in the room is hungry again.

This week realtors in the GTA and LM reported August stats. They’re awful. Scary. Precipitous. No, the market’s not crashing. But it’s sick. We should pay attention since nobody running for office right now understands the beast.

In case you missed it, here’s a summary: buyers are disgusted. Owners fear selling. Vendors are greedy. Supply is crashing. Prices are stuck. Mortgage rates are insane. The economy’s reopening. But few can afford to purchase. Unhealthy. Unbalanced. Sick.

Last month in the mighty GTA, for example, sales of detached homes crashed by almost a third year/year. With a 43% plunge in listings and prices stuck at peak house levels, buyers are walking away. The average price is stuck at just over $1 million and has been there for months. The only real signs of life are in the cheaper condo segment.

In Vancouver, ditto. Sales down month/month and year/year. Total listings have fallen 30% from last August and almost 9% in a month. Detached sales off 13% and, as in the GTA, prices are immobilized – far beyond the reach of average families. “When assessing the market,” says the real estate board, with refreshing candor, “it’s important to understand that while year-over-year price increases have reached double digits, most of the increases happened three or more months ago.”

So a detached house in YVR is $1.8 million and in Toronto just slightly less. Average incomes don’t support that. Foreign buyers are gone, gone, gone. Sales are down because of affordabililty. Listings have collapsed since anyone selling can’t buy again. In reality, most homeowners in Canada couldn’t afford their own places at current values. We‘re in a giant, frozen, turgid clot of leveraged fragility. Meanwhile politicians diddle on the edges – suggesting a non-resident buyers ban (when they are virtually none) or giving newbie buyers more finances (amid scant supply and extreme prices) are the answers.

Well, the industry gets it.

“Working with provincial and municipal levels of government on solving supply-related issues is much more important to affordability than interfering with consumer choice during the home buying and selling offer process or revisiting demand-side policies that will at best have a short-term impact on market conditions,” says the Toronto real estate board, still smarting from the no-blind-auctions Liberal platform. “Housing affordability has been a key issue in the federal election,” says Van realtors. “We encourage the political parties to focus on policy solutions that will help streamline the creation of more diverse housing options for hopeful home buyers today and into the future.”

Libs and Cons say they’d oversee the building of a million houses over three years. Few believe that. And in three years God knows what the market will smell like. Encouraging more demand now through tax breaks, new savings vehicles, longer mortgages and a gutted stress test will only make real estate richer. Meanwhile we’re fundamentally endangering the entire economy with housing-related debt as the market grows unstable.

Blog dog Walter worries his daughter will never be able to get her own place. Most parents feel the same lately. But he also fears a regulatory regime unable to cope with the present. “The system reminds me more of the American housing/credit crisis in 2007-2012 every day in the sense of unidentified risk,” he says.

That risk comes through a growing dependence of the entire GDP on real estate (now exceeding oil & gas plus manufacturing combined), which itself is built on a mountain of debt. Over a trillion in mortgages. Lenders give lower rates to buyers with the least to put down – thanks to taxpayer-funded insurance. Among uninsured borrowers, those with debts equal to five times their incomes (the danger zone) have erupted in number.

Over half all new buyers are using Bank of Mom money – usually borrowed against parental real estate. And yet the payments the old folks make as a result are never correlated to the loans of the children. Debt taken to facilitate more debt. An invisible, unregulated infection of obligation running through an entire family. And what of the hundreds of billions now in secured HELOC borrowings? Much of this is not being reduced – interest-only payments. This is demand debt at variable rates, tied to housing equity.

The basic question: can a people grow wealthier by borrowing more? How long can we push asset values higher to keep the Ponzi going? Is enabling more to join this scheme the best role for leaders?

Well, these are useless questions. The die is cast. Most Canadians have a one-asset strategy, and every young couple wants a house. Whatever the cost. No matter the debt.

Only listings and less greed can cure Mr. Market. More supply, not more demand. Those looking to government will be misled.

About the picture: “I wake up and treat myself to your blog here in Australia each morning,” writes George. “Your words have helped my wife and I position ourselves financially to be able to enjoy the finer things in life. I hope to pass these teachings down to my toddler twins in good time. As a thank-you, I’ve sent you a happy pic of our Kevin “Kevie” for your doggo collection. He is a two year old English Cream Retriever.”

122 comments ↓

#1 Armpit on 09.03.21 at 2:48 pm

ENOUGH LIES FROM THOSE IN AND WANT TO BE IN POWER!!!

” I want you to get up right now, sit up, go to your windows, open them and stick your head out and yell – ‘I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore! ‘ Things have got to change. But first, you’ve gotta get mad!… You’ve got to say, ‘I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!” – Network

#2 Doug t on 09.03.21 at 2:50 pm

Cannot wait for the crash – pickins will be good

#3 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 09.03.21 at 2:55 pm

On a separate note I don’t get what the anti-REIT crowds are thinking. Who else would be able to afford a rental building nowadays. Do the math and remeber that any private entity must make a profit.
The only other options left are Charities and governments. Which one would you prefer?
Also step back and understand that the anti-landlord / pro tenants rights movement as well as the eviction bans ( poorly implemented, should have made payments directly to landlords) is so skewed that a lot of small time landlords have given up and exiting the market hence reduced supply.
So think again ,who can afford to basically do charity and rent at Co-Op rates ?

#4 vanreal on 09.03.21 at 2:58 pm

People who aren’t in the market will need to understand that they will be life long renters. Isn’t that what you’ve been preaching to people for years Garth. Don’t buy, rent. In London 80% of the people rent their home. That’s going to be the new reality in TO and LM

#5 Exodus 2020 on 09.03.21 at 2:59 pm

I wish a party could have the guts to change the tax free capital gains to tax deductible mortgage interest instead, and tax capital gains. This would put money in the pockets up front in gradual installments instead of at the end as a lump sum when needed least. And it would fairly apply to those who report income to apply the tax deduction. And it would increase if interest rates increase, therefore protecting the market from some bankruptcies.

#6 Tom on 09.03.21 at 3:07 pm

I also can’t wait for the crash. Just another 10 years to go before it crashes to levels higher than current levels

#7 Official News from CDC on 09.03.21 at 3:09 pm

I wanna see a Trudeau crash and Ford crash.

#8 John on 09.03.21 at 3:15 pm

Trudeau has goosed the housing market by keeping rates low, making it too easy to get a mortgage, not requiring 25% down payments and refusing to stop foreign money from coming into our market. GIF’s report analyzed the 35 cases involving US$626.3 million in laundered funds over ve years. (A 2019 report by the RCMP estimated that C$46.7 billion was laundered in Canada in 2018 alone.)
“The laundered money came from drug trafcking in 58.5 per cent of the cases. Top foreign origins were China (22.85 per cent), the U.S. (11.4 per cent), Republic of Congo (8.5 per cent) and the rest divided amongst Chad, Mexico, Colombia, Malaysia, Russia and Libya,” read the report. “Enablers were: 22.8 per cent lawyers; 14.2 per cent real estate agents; 11.4 per cent real estate development companies and the rest scattered among nancial institutions, cryptocurrency outts, property managers, accountants, and mortgage brokers.”

#9 In Dog We Trust on 09.03.21 at 3:16 pm

If the FED ain’t moving interest rates then nobody is so Canada stays right where she is… Everything bubble continues to grow and grow… More immigration coming too as that seems the only way to grow the economy therefore even more bubbling of RE prices… I too doubt any party wants to blow this thing up as everyone’s feeling a little richer by the day…

#10 binky barnes on 09.03.21 at 3:17 pm

Just wait until the PM PM (Mr. Justin Trudeau) gets stuck into this housing mess; he will sort things out lickety-split. At the moment he is preoccupied with looking good for this nasty election business, but one day he will pit wits with this mess that is affordable housing. Like going into a knife fight with a gun.

BB

#11 Planetgoofy on 09.03.21 at 3:21 pm

#1 Armpit on 09.03.21 at 2:48 pm
——————————————
Yes!
If I fail in my business I get zip. No poggie no nothing. Maybe a box and a bridge to live under…..
That’s why I understand this failure of our goofball leader so well. Failure for me is not an option because it would be painful, on the contrary for politicians get to enrich themselves and never ever face any consequence’s no matter what boo boo they create..
It was over 4 years ago when I seen him for what he was.
Now his result’s of his policies are coming clear…just wait more to come..
Is that mad enough?

#12 physicist on 09.03.21 at 3:25 pm

Meanwhile, in the past two weeks since (19AUG) my little foray into buying the dip on mining has resulted in being up over 10% on that investment.

Dearest friend Sail away must also be doing well on that one…good call

#13 Wait_for_it on 09.03.21 at 3:30 pm

When are real estate prices coming down Garth T ? You know, the slow but steady price declines you have been predicting. This I bet, is what many readers of your blog want to know after following you all these years. It hasn’t happened yet

#14 Flop… on 09.03.21 at 3:32 pm

Well, since this is a full service blog I will step in and help Garth with a topic I’m doubtful he has had to think about much….hair loss.

Chap this morning wrote about it and I have found something that works for this.

Back when I was looking online for pain management solutions and started reading about turmeric I stumbled upon something else.

The main claim was that spraying onion juice on your hair once a week could make your hair grow back, stop thinning and return hair to natural colour.

I had some surgery with an extended time of work so I tried it.

Here’s my findings.

Was losing 10 hairs a night on my pillow case.

This stopped after 2 months,or approximately 10 sessions.

My hair was starting to go grey, maybe after 3 months it returned it it’s natural colour,

No new hair grew, but slowing the loss and the natural colour is a good return on 50 cents a week.

At the start my wife said I was crazy, as this is a regular occurrence I laughed it off, and surprise,surprise, instead of laughing she now does it to stop her roots going grey and she also suffered a little bit of hair loss probably because of Covid.

Anyway boys and girls can stop losing hair in one hour a week and then invest their savings in their TFSA…

M47BC

#15 BillyBob on 09.03.21 at 3:33 pm

#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.02.21 at 9:21 pm

No spoiler alert. Was expected.
If you did not vote for Trudeau, which party would a progressive, intellectual, snappy uniform and snazzy socks wearing, walking down the terminal with one gorgeous blonde stewardess on each arm, Captain of the Sky, vote for?

———————————————————–

Can’t spell, can’t read….as I put in my post:

#anythingbutTrudeau

It’s tacky to ask who someone voted for, but of course I voted strategically – Conservative. I had to look up the candidate online just to write the name on the ballot. They could have run a potato and I would have voted for it.

Interesting thought exercise. Overseas voting is based on the electoral region where one last voted before expatriating. So that means my vote is counted in an Ontario electoral district.

Thanks to the FFTP system, in essence my vote carries more weight than yours cast in BC. (The election will be decided in ON/QC before your polls even close.) So the vote of someone not even living in Canada is worth more than yours. Great system, eh?

The delicious irony is that it’s your hero Trudeau who both lied about electoral reform, and restored expat voting, to enable this. So, thanks for voting for him last time. Maybe just don’t do it again, he’s not working out so well.

Incidentally your description of me is uncannily accurate, except that I prefer brunettes and always wear socks that match the uniform. For the simple reason of being an adult not an entitled dilettante manchild like your boy.

#16 Loonie Doctor on 09.03.21 at 3:37 pm

I am sure Kevie is a real sweet-heart. He looks just like our Jasper who passed this past year (also an English Golden/Cream Retriever). My kids loved his giant “squish-head” and “squeezie-cheeks”. He loved getting them squeezed and squished.
-LD

#17 S.Bby on 09.03.21 at 3:38 pm

Liberal housing platform hints at land seizures
Federal Liberal party spokesman says “use it or lose it” statement in election brochure does not mean expropriation of private land.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/liberal-housing-platform-hints-at-land-seizures-4274230

#18 Danger Dan on 09.03.21 at 3:40 pm

Crushing short-term rentals would free up supply. There’s also plenty of money there for the CRA to go after.

AirBnB, et al. is a bane on our society. It’s even ruining the peaceful boondocks –

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/cottage-owners-campground-coup-1.6159421

“Today, the owner of Bear Ridge, his bookkeeper and a camper make up three of Wollaston’s five councillors.”

Seasonal residents own the town council.

Who wants to live in a town owned by rootless drifters? This country is spiritually sick. Greed and hedonism rule.

#19 Zxcvbnm on 09.03.21 at 3:45 pm

Housing in this country makes me sick.

$2000+ to rent a 1br1bath basement suite in nanaimo. That’s actually a great deal these days..

Disgusting.

#20 X on 09.03.21 at 3:46 pm

It all comes down to supply and demand.

Supply takes years to develop.

Demand is much easier to squash. But it doesn’t get you elected. Free stuff that gooses the RE market gets you elected.

I think the politicians get it just fine. They unfortunately have their best interests placed before financially illiterate pickling themselves in debt.

#21 Grandv!ew on 09.03.21 at 3:47 pm

It is impossible to save the Canadian real estate market.

It is just a matter of the time now.

We are looking at the dead man (dead market) walking.

Trudeau and his minions made tactical mistake at the time of coming into power (after Harper) of not blaming everything (housing bubble) onto previous government and changing bad policies into logical kind, thus creating reset in the market. If that was done back in 2015 most of the excess steam from the real estate would have been gone, downfall would have been manageable and we would be looking at the healthy recovery now. Sadly none of this was done, back then (none will be done today) since correction in the real estate market was considered as the very bad outcome so the “can” was kicked down the road while looking away from the down the road consequence that we are now staring at potentially IMPLODING of the Canada’s financial system and breaking up of the social cohesion in the case the “market” starts correcting.

There is no possible way to right the corse of this country until the real estate “market” corrects to the pricing levels that make sense again and are connected to the fundamentals of incomes of people living and paying taxes in the country.

#22 Dolce Vita on 09.03.21 at 3:50 pm

Was looking at Dwelling Building Permits, July 2021 by StatCan, and the number of units are going up but not that many.

25.55K total units in July, 19.55K of those are Condos.

Residential up 31.3% y/y units, 30.3% in $ value.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210902/t001b-eng.htm

Assuming 21.3M working Cdns, 31% not in a home but want one, that’s this many buyers:

6.6M

All of a sudden 26K residential units/mo not going to put a dent in that number any time soon, in so far as new dwellings goes.

——————

1M/3 yrs new homes promised. Industry can deliver 312K/yr using the July numbers, most of those condos.

Prices are not going to be alleviated anytime soon by new dwellings that’s for sure and IN EFFECT both the Libs and the Cons are promising (1M – 312K/yr * 3 yrs):

64K more homes in 3 years
[over and above what industry is already delivering and assumes no further increase/month in units]

Wow. My heart be still.

#23 jimmy zhao on 09.03.21 at 3:57 pm

“The basic question: can a people grow wealthier by borrowing more?”

Governments say ‘Yes’. Borrowing & spending is the pathway to prosperity.

#24 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 4:16 pm

#12 physicist on 09.03.21 at 3:25 pm

Meanwhile, in the past two weeks since (19AUG) my little foray into buying the dip on mining has resulted in being up over 10% on that investment.

Dearest friend Sail away must also be doing well on that one…good call

———

My goodness. It happened again.

#25 mgkiloper on 09.03.21 at 4:17 pm

Trudeau smokes Toolboy and little TikTokker in the debate and cements himself as the One True Option to bring this country forward.

Congratulations Mister Prime Minister

Onward to 338 Seats!

#26 Dolce Vita on 09.03.21 at 4:20 pm

Still thinking about that Oxford Vax study (AZ people) where they said we’re all going to get Delta (incl. the vaxd) and get used to that fact.

they also said stop posting about cases, meaningless and it stresses people out.

Thus Delta is ENDEMIC.

Went to look at Gov Canada Epidemiology site and ya, the 4th wave is just starting in Canada, still low on what matters: hospitalizations, deaths according to Oxford, see Fig 6 n the link below.

The VAST majority ending up in hospital or the morgue are the unvaxd, Fig. 5 & Table 2:

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#VOC

Mostly the under 40 crowd getting infected by Delta (Fig. 7) but most of the over 50 crowd in hospital and doing the dying (and they are about 85%+ probable unvaxd).

Plenty still for Delta to Dine on in Canada, this many unvaxd +12 yrs old eligible as of yesterday:

5.25M

——————–

YVR buddy, when I sent him the Oxford Vaccine study stuff asked what will I do?

Well, since it is inevitable I will get infected by Delta I’m going to Milano (see Last Supper again, refurbish wardrobe), Lago Como, Marseilles (and whatever’s in between) next week. 2 dose vaxd, got a digital Green Pass that scans ✓ so I’m good to go.

Bite me Italian Delta.

If you don’t hear from me after Sep 10th, some of you will be happy, as for the rest of you in the words of the Electrician:

It’s been a splice (you too Garth).

#27 Faron on 09.03.21 at 4:22 pm

Thanks for your post today, Garth. Similar realtor sentiment from VREB. Party platforms are off the mark.

Victoria RE sales drop bigly YoY and MoM. But, inventories are low. Flood of listings will crater this thing. As of now Albertans rush in to take the bags off of locals’ hands. Bless ’em. Always a half step behind. Well versed in jinglemail.

#28 Jeff Lamont on 09.03.21 at 4:24 pm

If we stop the easy money flowing into the market (US – Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Bond Purchasing), interest rates will naturally rise. Forcing the many who are over extended to list and sell. Thus, forcing a much needed correction. No political intervention needed. This much needed interest rate correction will rebalance the housing and create a stock market correction. Thank you, for your daily blog. I enjoy the knowledge you are sharing to help Educate us financially.

#29 Faron on 09.03.21 at 4:28 pm

CC: Sail Away

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/09/01/bc-covid-vaccine-protest-kelowna/amp/

Physical and verbal assault while badgering haggered healthcare workers. Good look. O’tool looking to legalize the AR-15 in Canada. Weapon of choice of school shooters. I assume AR15 are good hunting rifles? I don’t really know much about gunz. SA, you must be stoked to watch Canada inch toward US policy.

#30 Evrémonde on 09.03.21 at 4:28 pm

“Foreign buyers are gone, gone, gone.”

The Pump and Dump of this market has begun.

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 4:31 pm

#151 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 11:37 am
#146 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 11:00 am
Poor America,
Floods, hurricanes and Afghanistan.
And to top it off, poor job numbers.
Poor Biden, how long will he last?
+++++++++++++++
Consider the alternative. Kamala Harris as president? Who will she appoint as VP? Nancy Pelosi? Maxine Waters? Al Sharpton? AOC ?
————–
Gotta agree with you.
Not a good time to be an American.
I’m trying to get excited about our election here, but being a “cosmolian”, I’m paying more attention to what’s happening in the States and Europe.
Turns out that Biden is a micro manager, contrary to Trump who spent more time on his golf course with his buddies than in the White House.
Both management styles are not suited for the person “running the Free World”.
You’re right, Harris is not being prepared for the presidential role.
Either by accident or on purpose.
And there is really nobody in sight who could take over.
The Republicans are patiently waiting in the wings, filibustering every legislation,  hoping that Trump is still alive in 2024.
So he can finish of what he started: Demolish the American Republic (Democracy).
Unfortunately, it will spill over into Canada.
So, be prepared, Beavers, let’s keep Canada glorious and free.

#32 Trojan House on 09.03.21 at 4:33 pm

The UK’s vaccine advisory committee is NOT backing vaccinations for healthy kids 12-15 years old. They do say kids in that age range with underlying health conditions should get them. The BBC has more:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58438669

#33 BlogDog123 on 09.03.21 at 4:33 pm

Supply supply supply
And make qualifying harder
That will help with the downward prices needed

Now how to deal with Karen at the housing association who has the ear of city hall ..

#34 KLNR on 09.03.21 at 4:43 pm

@#8 John on 09.03.21 at 3:15 pm
Trudeau has goosed the housing market by keeping rates low…

Trudeau doesn’t control the rates

#35 Bye Bye on 09.03.21 at 4:48 pm

Forget about house prices. World digital currency coming!
The World Economic Forum and many of its partners have a vested interest in the systemic collapse of the current financial system. In addition, many central banks have recently backed new digital currency systems that can only achieve rapid, mass adoption if the existing system collapses.

Given that these systems are set to be integrated with biometric IDs and so-called “vaccine passports” through the WEF and Big Tech-backed Vaccine Credential initiative, it is worth considering the timing of the expected launch of such systems in determining when this predicted and allegedly inevitable event is likely to occur.

With this new financial system so deeply inter-connected to these “credential” efforts, this cyber attack on the financial sector would likely take place at a time when it would best facilitate the adoption of the new economic system and its integration into credential systems currently being promoted as a “way out” of COVID-19-related restrictions.

#36 Linda on 09.03.21 at 4:50 pm

I agree with blog dog Walter – the current state of RE in Canada resembles the USA RE run-up & subsequent crash more each day. As for ‘affordable’ housing – well, a recent headline in Calgary mentioned how recently built affordable housing had developed a sewage line issue. Thing is, these affordable housing units are $250,000 each. Obviously in a world where housing averages over $600K that is tres cheap in comparison, but when average Canadian household income is around the $60K mark the fact that ‘affordable’ is $250K or 4x average income is a bit of a misnomer from my perspective.

#37 Doug t on 09.03.21 at 4:50 pm

#31 ponzi

Canada is neither glorious or very free – our glory days are behind us and the little freedoms you have left are slowly disappearing – but if you think this is Mayberry well just ducky I guess

#38 Doug t on 09.03.21 at 4:53 pm

#25 mgkiloper

You like having cinder blocks chained to your neck for the next 30 years ? Sadist

#39 My Body My Choice on 09.03.21 at 4:58 pm

In 2015 Mr. Drama Teacher was hired to act in a new TV series dramedy: PM of Canada.

In Season 1, he mixed and matched socks, dressed up in various costumes and attended numerous Pride Parades.

The producers and writers of the show felt that Season 2 needed a bit more edge, so Mr. Drama Teacher travelled the country on an apology tour. In some episodes he was blaming, shaming AND apologizing.

For Seasons 3 and 4, the producers wanted more conflict and drama, so a numberof sub-plots were introduced: the SNC Affair, the Jody debacle, the WE scandal. These increased viewers but many felt Mr. Drama Teacher’s character was too flawed.

To boost ratings in Season 5, the show took many strange and unexpected twists and turns: a world-wide pandemic, lock-downs, suspensions of civil liberties. Fans of the show were glued to their sets – how would it end? Some veteran characters left the show and new ones were added, including a Top Doctor with questionable credentials and motives.

By season 6, the show’s ratings tanked, viewers tuned out. Mr. Drama Teacher’s
character became more of a villain than hero, and his acting ability came into
question. The show’s production costs skyrocketed, the sponsors and producers
demanded a quick turn-around quickly, or they’d pull the plug on the series.

Tune in on Sept. 20, 2021 for the final episode of Season 6.

#40 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 09.03.21 at 5:03 pm

Stay down south and pump your stupid gta mcmansions, all you southern inbred hillbillies.

Keep your Delta to yourselves. Summer’s over.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#41 Guy in Calgary on 09.03.21 at 5:06 pm

You now get $100 to get vaxxed here in AB. Given we got ours months ago, I expect to receive my $100 plus interest in the mail Mr. Kenney.

#42 August RE Data on 09.03.21 at 5:08 pm

I was a little confused by the somewhat random data mentioned so I took a look at the numbers for GTA and Metro Vancouver.

Here’s what I found:

GTA:

-August 2021 home sales down 20% from Aug 2020, but were still the third highest on record.

-new listings down 43% YOY (lowest level in a decade)

-Price index up 17.4% YOY

Summary: Third highest sales ever, prices up, inventory at decade lows. Hmmm.

Metro Vancouver:

-sales up 3.4% YOY, 20% above the 10 year average for August

-inventory down 30% YOY and down 8% MOM

-Sales to active listings at 35%. Anything above 20% leads to upward pressure on prices.

-prices up 13% YOY

Same story: Sales far above 10 year averages, prices way up, inventory at decade lows.

Prices are about to explode higher on a very small number of sales, as I have been predicting.

Sorry doomers, looks like you’re going to have to wait another year or two. At least.

#43 Squire on 09.03.21 at 5:10 pm

#25 mgkiloper on 09.03.21 at 4:17 pm
Trudeau smokes Toolboy and little TikTokker in the debate and cements himself as the One True Option to bring this country forward.

Congratulations Mister Prime Minister

Onward to 338 Seats!
————————-

hahahahahahahahahaha

#44 Inequity on 09.03.21 at 5:10 pm

#29 Faron

If you don’t know guns or what O’Tool is proposing, then you shouldn’t let it bother you since you are ignorant of the facts.

#45 None on 09.03.21 at 5:12 pm

Here are my two suggestions to help slow curb the cost of living crisis (frequently called housing crisis):

1) Inject fear into the market. Come out and say: If the market crashes the government isn’t going to save you;

2) Put in a renters tax CREDIT. The time lag and general poor financial planning of the average canadian will not push these funds directly into the month to month renters market (b/c people are incapable if long term financial planning) but will make renting a more attractive option.

#46 Squire on 09.03.21 at 5:12 pm

#36 Linda on 09.03.21 at 4:50 pm
I agree with blog dog Walter – the current state of RE in Canada resembles the USA RE run-up & subsequent crash more each day. As for ‘affordable’ housing – well, a recent headline in Calgary mentioned how recently built affordable housing had developed a sewage line issue. Thing is, these affordable housing units are $250,000 each. Obviously in a world where housing averages over $600K that is tres cheap in comparison, but when average Canadian household income is around the $60K mark the fact that ‘affordable’ is $250K or 4x average income is a bit of a misnomer from my perspective.
—————
House prices are a joke here. Just go to a decent place anywhere in the USA you’ll see what $250k get’s you. Way the heck more than here.

#47 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:16 pm

And then there’s this:

https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-trudeaus-housing-plan-wont-stop-money-laundering-from-fuelling-out-of-control-prices

Maybe marginal buyers only, but certainly one reason prices could be so far out of alignment with local wages.

Not the reason I wont be voting Liberal, but stuff like this certainly tarnishes the image I have of the party.

I continue to speculate that If/when cryptos/nfts/stablecoins start to roll over that will be when CDN RE starts to roll down for real. Although an argument could be made that as crypto takes over as the prime conduit for laundering criminal funds, perhaps housing will lose its shine. Once the marginal buyer goes and the top of market prices start to fall, I reckon there may be a rush for the exits. This is hypothesis, not fact obviously.

#48 Old gringo on 09.03.21 at 5:20 pm

Insane Canadian house prices.
This is what a one bedroom in Vancouver buys you in Mexico!

https://www.point2homes.com/MX/Home-For-Sale/Nayarit/Flamingos/Club-Residencial/Luxury-Residence-Flamingos-Residential/102657828.html#lg=1&slide=31

#49 Wrk.dover on 09.03.21 at 5:22 pm

157 IHCTD9 on 09.03.21 at 12:59 pm
Moved my eldest into residence yesterday. First thing I noticed was the whole place was overrun with young Women.

_____________________________

But were they born that way? It’s now 2021, Sport!

At least they won’t be needing abortions.

#50 under the radar on 09.03.21 at 5:25 pm

19 “Housing in this country makes me sick.
$2000+ to rent a 1br1bath basement suite in nanaimo. That’s actually a great deal these days..
Disgusting.”

Since the Pandemic ,I have trouble getting 1800p/m for a 2 bedroom at Yonge and Eglinton in a 91 suite well managed purpose built rental building .
Why is that you might ask? Because our building does not have central air, or amenities. I am competing with hundreds of Condo’s newly built with all the bells and whistles. Saving money on rent is not everyone’s priority .

#51 Unumizer on 09.03.21 at 5:30 pm

Garth, why are none of the parties talking about more transparency ala Zillow in the US where all buyers can see oodles of info without paying a realtor?

#52 Aaron on 09.03.21 at 5:30 pm

For years you have been predicting the housing market will crash, yet prices just go up.

#53 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 5:39 pm

The benchmark price for a single-family home in the Central Okanagan has had its biggest percentage increase in four months.
The price, which represents a dwelling with typical attributes to those traded in the area, jumped 3% to $961,800 last month, according to statistics the Association of Interior Realtors released Friday. The benchmark price just 12 months ago was $692,800.
AIR said the region remains a seller’s market because of chronically low inventory, although the number of available single-family homes in the Central Okanagan actually increased from 485 to 501 in August.

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/344783/Single-family-benchmark-price-in-Central-Okanagan-near-1-million#344783

#54 Oracle of Ottawa on 09.03.21 at 5:40 pm

As you’ve eluded in your blog, the debt crises of the U.S. in 2007 never happened here. Prospective house buyers never got burned, so they know no caution. They still believe the price of houses will always go up. Our housing should have got cremated like the U.S. Then these exuberant housing prices wouldn’t be happening.

#55 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm

#151 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 11:37 am

Consider the alternative. Kamala Harris as president? Who will she appoint as VP? Nancy Pelosi? Maxine Waters? Al Sharpton? AOC ?

So, you fear black people and women including the dreaded women of colour. Noted. Bernie Sanders would be okay I presume?

#56 Kiril Peev on 09.03.21 at 5:58 pm

Ottawa Real Estate Market Update for August 2021:

https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-market-update-august-2021/

The Ottawa real estate market is picking up steam as we say goodbye to summer and head into the busier autumn market. There has a been a noticeable uptick in activity in the last week of August and I expect September and October to be busy.

Buyers still have plenty of inventory to choose from although competition is picking up.

Sellers are benefiting from a drop in active listings (about 10%). This will provide support for prices. I am seeing more bidding wars as compared to July.

#57 WhereToNow on 09.03.21 at 5:58 pm

A Totally Un-Necessary Election folks, costing us all millions of $$ by a liberal government elected by eastern Canadians. “Wake Up” people, and do not let this happen again, vote for a change and a chance for a better party to try and fix this mess Trudeau et al … got us into. This is serious business and your children and grand children are depending on YOU to vote for a better federal party .

#58 Lead Paint on 09.03.21 at 6:03 pm

Here is my genius idea: the government provides an incentive for seniors to sell their homes and downsize (condo, townhouse, rent) by offering that if they sell by end of 2022 they will cover the cost of any lost appreciation by 2030.

Before you say “wait that’s just throwing more borrowed money at already rich seniors”, that won’t happen. Just the announcement of the program will crash prices, create a stampede to sell before the deadline, make houses more affordable for young families, and they won’t appreciate much beyond the date of the announcement.

It’s much more affordable, effective and market oriented than anything proposed by the parties this election.

Did I say genius?

#59 Faron on 09.03.21 at 6:09 pm

Because certain people here are entertained by my market prognostications, I can’t help but satisfy. There is a long weekend before us after all.

Two measures of the US equity markets — one options (GEX) and one institutional buying (DIX) — have shifted to levels that tend to lead to unfavourable outcomes in coming months. Maybe not surprising given the increasingly soft economic data coming out of the US and Canada.

Here are the plots:

https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix

And here is the paper that describes what you are looking at:

https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/download/pdf/short_is_long.pdf?

and

https://squeezemetrics.com/download/The_Implied_Order_Book.pdf

Educate yourself and decide if these metrics are worth your time and paying attention to. Then decide if the current measurements/calculations have any bearing on the future.

As always, if you are saving/investing for retirement, you probably shouldn’t think about such things. But, I know there are a few cowboys here. You may find this stuff useful.

#60 Sara on 09.03.21 at 6:10 pm

#5 Exodus 2020 on 09.03.21 at 2:59 pm
I wish a party could have the guts to change the tax free capital gains to tax deductible mortgage interest instead, and tax capital gains. This would put money in the pockets up front in gradual installments instead of at the end as a lump sum when needed least. And it would fairly apply to those who report income to apply the tax deduction. And it would increase if interest rates increase, therefore protecting the market from some bankruptcies
===============

Makes too much sense. Would put downward pressure on over priced real estate as well. Will likely never happen.

#61 Garth's Son Drake on 09.03.21 at 6:19 pm

Housing will be an afterthought once the fall arrives and people realize ctrl + print on money has stopped and all of the sudden cannot pay their basic bills. It is happening right now.

I told this blog earlier in the year consumer confidence was going to tank as we get close the time where stimulus is ending. We are 1.5 months out and many people are trying to figure out how they are going to pays bills in November. The rhetorical answer to that is bloating the credit cards and/or any lines of credit for several months.

Morgan Stanley just downgraded Q3 GDP from that bustling 6.5% to 2.9%. This isn’t a surprise to me and I tried to warn you when touting a massive rebound later this year. In fact, I started drinking the same kool-aid a bit until it became painfully obvious that the pandemic was getting worse, not better. What is happening in Israel should be a wakeup call to the world. The pandemic is not under control.

The whole pandemic is just getting started. We have more vaccinated people now than last year and number of infected people far surpass last year numbers at this time with exponential growth happening. Dr. Tam just announced a projection of 15,000 cases per day by fall – record breaking. Mask mandates are back. Total 180. Hospitalizations in Alberta have quadrupled in the past few weeks.

People are out of their minds having mass protests. There were over 5k people outside of VGH causing mass disruptions. The root cause of this is disruption and hardship. Reminds me of the post financial crisis rallies about wall street.

People / consumers on the whole are undue stress and breaking.

How much more writing on the wall do people need?

Double dip recession is here.

Did you see that jobs report today? What a miss. Forecast for 725k jobs coming in at 235k far below the most pessimistic forecast.

Goodbye taper.

Let’s see what kind of financial policies come now.

Forget about inflation. Deflation is coming.

The cure for inflation is when people see price explosion and think, wtf? Like when looking at a house in Vancouver. Forget about it.

Then consumers change their purchasing plans, delay them or outright cancel them. Add job loss and we have the perfect recipe to eliminate consumer confidence.

And also, sure the chip shortage is problematic, but I don’t believe that to be the single reason auto sales are absolutely tanking – it is consumer confidence – but we will see.

Conclusion: consumer confidence and the whole economy collapses – once again – in the next two quarters. Double dip recession leading to the real bear market, then we pull up from there. Housing looks ugly 2023, 2024. The chaotic economy stabilizes in the bottom around the year 2025, limping forward with the overhang of the housing market buckling, hampering the next decade of growth.

The only uncertainty I see is what the hell this virus is going to do over the next year. Will it disappear? Will the worst case mutant arrive and wipe us all out. Stay tuned.

#62 Faron on 09.03.21 at 6:23 pm

#44 Inequity on 09.03.21 at 5:10 pm

‘t was a joke. I have a working knowledge of guns. I know enough to chamber a round in most rifles and hand guns and at least hit the side of a barn from 50 yds. So, if I ever had to hunt barns for survival, I would probably make it.

I’ve had plenty of fun shooting with my redneck brothers in Oregon (I can call them that because at least one of them has a tattoo that says “Redneck” on his right arm). Oregon ain’t what BillyBob and The Jaguar think it is.

Anyhow, O’tool’s version of the assault weapon ban only includes automatic rifles. The commercially available AR_15s are semi-auto thus wouldn’t be excluded.

This is yet another wedge issue to continue driving Canadians apart so the political landscape begins to look more and more like the US’s and thus more easily allows the control of the increasingly poorly educated voting public by making them responsive to hot-button issues. I’m not deluded enough to think that the left doesn’t deploy similar tactics.

#63 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 6:24 pm

#55 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm
#151 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 11:37 am

Consider the alternative. Kamala Harris as president? Who will she appoint as VP? Nancy Pelosi? Maxine Waters? Al Sharpton? AOC ?

So, you fear black people and women including the dreaded women of colour. Noted. Bernie Sanders would be okay I presume?
++++++++++++++

Fear them like the devil and Bernie too. And you. Inferring racism where there was none. You and your ilk are the problem. Bozo.

#64 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 6:25 pm

#55 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm
#151 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 11:37 am

Consider the alternative. Kamala Harris as president? Who will she appoint as VP? Nancy Pelosi? Maxine Waters? Al Sharpton? AOC ?

———-

So, you fear black people and women including the dreaded women of colour. Noted. Bernie Sanders would be okay I presume?

———-

Wow, good work. You’ve cast YE as a misogynistic racist with nothing more than a stroke of the pen and a whopping dose of intellectual dishonesty.

Maybe leave the strawmen to the farmers, eh champ?

#65 DON on 09.03.21 at 6:26 pm

#14 Flop… on 09.03.21 at 3:32 pm
Well, since this is a full service blog I will step in and help Garth with a topic I’m doubtful he has had to think about much….hair loss.

Chap this morning wrote about it and I have found something that works for this.

Back when I was looking online for pain management solutions and started reading about turmeric I stumbled upon something else.

*********

Good to know!

You might also be interested in my new line of Tomatoe Sauce Shampoo. Onions and essential virgin olive oil included.

#66 jess on 09.03.21 at 6:29 pm

naughty naughty

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2021/33-10977.pdf

#67 Tiffany on 09.03.21 at 6:37 pm

I always enjoy the looks of bewilderment I get when people ask me if I would buy ever buy a house. My answer is always the same: “Nope, I’ve been priced completely out.” Pretty sad for a young person with an ultra rare stable, full-time, defined pension paying job in the private sector. I’ve never considered buying a house the be all to end all, but at least having the option would be nice. Renting isn’t exactly a practical option either when it would take 80% of my gross income to manage it where Ilive. Since being homeless isn’t an appealing option, I’m opting to pool my resources with my mom. Social shaming be damned. You gotta do what you gotta do out of necessity.

#68 Lead Paint on 09.03.21 at 6:38 pm

#46 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm

You have a Trump-like penchant for vilifying people that don’t share your perspective. Not sure if that’s the look you’re going for.

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 6:50 pm

Rushing things through never works.
Trump’s warp speed Moderna vaccine has been rejected for booster shots, while European vaccine BionTech has cleared all the hurdles set by the FDA.

#70 House Humpers in for Climate Change Surprise on 09.03.21 at 6:52 pm

Tanya bought her dream retirement home in Kelowna this past Spring. She moved from out East.

It seemed perfect.

Until fire season showed up.

She said: “it was like living some sort of nightmare and not like what I had seen in the magazines and marketing material. I have visited a few times before and the weather was nice.”

First my Realtor stated it was a real bad year (as in not normal) then went silent.

That is what you called being duped. Buyers remorse. But Karma will catch up with the fake dream selling.

This is something the industry does not want to talk about because it risks killing off vital industries like flogging homes and tourism, which is the only industry left in the area.

The Summers East of Vancouver have not been livable in BC for 5 years. When you breathe smoke for 2 months straight, you never forget and like me will never make that mistake again to get caught living in an apocalypse.

Redfin CEO says “I think this idea that climate change is going to be factored into how people think about housing, it hasn’t happened yet. The only people who have figured out are the actuarialists, the people who have to calculate the cost of insuring these properties,” said Kelman, who has led Redfin for about 15 years.

They have not figured it out now, but they soon will.

My prediction: The Atlantic is looking like low hanging fruit.

No surprise that Garth is in this area. In fact, I can picture people saying right now, shhhhh, don’t tell anyone.

I am sitting on Vancouver Island thinking I can sell my little Parksville, BC house for 875k and move to Halifax and get a much nicer property for 350k. New truck, new boat, five hundred thousand dollars in my pocket to eat out fish and chips at the cafe every day if I want. With that kind of cash more like fresh lobster catch on the daily.

And that Atlantic bubble where cases have been extremely low is quite desirable. You can frolic around without much concern you will come home sick. Compare that with living in Alberta where not only Covid is rampant but so to is syphilis and the government whacking health care as if nobody needs it.

People in the Atlantic complaining about house prices doubling better get used to it. A tidal wave of equity from people like me is eyeing the East – an area phenomenally under-priced.

Being on the clean ocean shoreline on the West Coast will cost you 2 million+. It is 200-400k for most nice homes on the East Coast ocean shoreline. And people are surprised by the multiple bids in these sleepy East Coast towns?

Housing and the political debate isn’t going anywhere as we see the East Coast shoot up to 1 million dollars for a house in the coming years. No stopping it.

#71 jess on 09.03.21 at 6:52 pm

Wednesday, September 1, 2021
Director and Promoter of BitConnect Pleads Guilty in Global $2 Billion Cryptocurrency Scheme

Assistant U. S. Attorneys Daniel C. Silva, Mark W. Pletcher, Lisa Sanniti and Carl Brooker

NEWS RELEASE SUMMARY—September 1, 2021

SAN DIEGO—Glenn Arcaro of Los Angeles pleaded guilty today in federal court for his participation in a massive conspiracy involving BitConnect, a cryptocurrency investment scheme, which defrauded investors from the United States and abroad of over $2 billion. The BitConnect scheme is believed to be the largest cryptocurrency fraud ever charged criminally.

https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/director-and-promoter-bitconnect-pleads-guilty-global-2-billion-cryptocurrency-scheme

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.21 at 6:57 pm

@#15 BillyB
“So the vote of someone not even living in Canada is worth more than yours. Great system, eh?”

++++
Classic.

I shall be voting strategically to oust the incumbent Liberal candidate in my riding.
Hold my nose and vote NDP.
The conservative is trailing too far behind but the Libs and NDP are neck and neck.

Anyone but Trudeau.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 7:01 pm

#53 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 5:39 pm
The benchmark price for a single-family home in the Central Okanagan has had its biggest percentage increase in four months.
The price, which represents a dwelling with typical attributes to those traded in the area, jumped 3% to $961,800 last month, according to statistics the Association of Interior Realtors released Friday. The benchmark price just 12 months ago was $692,800.
AIR said the region remains a seller’s market because of chronically low inventory, although the number of available single-family homes in the Central Okanagan actually increased from 485 to 501 in August.
————
So you’re reading/watching Castagna news now.
It’s a step up from FoxNews.
Next step up CBC and Globe&Mail.

#74 Faron on 09.03.21 at 7:02 pm

#64 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 6:25 pm

#55 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm
#151 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 11:37 am

Fear them like the devil and Bernie too. And you. Inferring racism where there was none. You and your ilk are the problem. Bozo.

1) The Devil doesn’t exist. When dealing with others it’s good to know they are afraid of phantasms.

2) Does your list not include only women and/or people of colour? You doubled down on the “fear” part, so it’s clear now that you fear those on your list.

3) Can you point out where I called you a racist? I can’t seem to see it.

“You’ve cast YE as a misogynistic racist”

Actually, he did the casting. Where did I call him either a misogynist or a racist? can you show me those words in my comment please?

It did seem laughable and noteworthy that out of millions of left to far left people, hundreds if not thousands of them famous or in prominent leadership roles, he is most fearful of the female and black ones. Or, fearful enough that they were top of mind. And he is making me out to be as feared as “the devil” because I pointed out his obvious bias here.

To be fair then, I’ll concede that this was merely a chance occurrence albeit against extremely steep odds. That makes more sense than the very slim possibility that his media diet (i.e. Fox news) has conditioned him to fear women and people of colour in power. I apologize Yukon Elvis, you are clearly a stand-up gentleman.

#75 Faron on 09.03.21 at 7:04 pm

#68 Lead Paint on 09.03.21 at 6:38 pm

But when Sail Away does the mirror image of this (in alignment with your politics) you don’t mind? Nothing new under the sun, is there?

#76 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.03.21 at 7:08 pm

MY, MY, WHAT’S A STRUGGLING REALTOR TO DO???
Going to bed tonight, I suspect a great number of previous top award winning realtors will enter into their own personal nightmare from hell. Even the bankers electric cattle prods will not jolt them back to productivity. Their pleas of (NO MAS) and screams of agony from the banker prods will most assuredly cause a jump in P.T.S.D’s in the ranks of the cartel. Hugging their former plastic trophies of excellence, along with the wishful delusions of the good old days, I suspect, will bring little if any needed monetary relief. Funny, I’m hearing cricket chirps from all the cool realtors, where are they hiding? For a ton of realtors the” IDES OF NOVEMBER’ are coming a bit early. I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#77 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 7:20 pm

#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 6:50 pm

Rushing things through never works.

Trump’s warp speed Moderna vaccine has been rejected for booster shots…

———-

Incorrect.

Moderna just finished their filing to start the FDA review. No determination has yet been made:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/moderna-wraps-up-covid-booster-filing-setting-up-fda-review/ar-AAO4wh9?ocid=msedgntp

#78 Freddie on 09.03.21 at 7:25 pm

Exodus2020, I don’t want to reward this socialist, Trudeau, Freeland Liberal government by paying a massive capital gains tax. They inflated all this by 77% in 6 years. Liberals and their buddies are poverty creators and poverty pumpers.

What is really needed is a 40% to 60% drop in the largest real estate markets in Canada, Toronto, GTA, Vancuver, Victoria etc. The only way to accomplish this is a mortgage rates, interest rates increased to 8% to 9% overnight with a Bank of Canada rate at minimum raised to 7% plus a minimum 20% down payments for all renewals and new home buyers for properties above $600,000.

This way most Toronto, GTA, Vancouver properties will be no more than $500,000 to $700,000 at most. I am sick of all these taxes of all kinds and tax breaks for real estate and especially these low, socialist interest rates and central bank policies that are so anti capitalist and anti progress for the majority of Canadians.

Interest rates are the key, they need to raised fast and high now. This is the only way as they let this crap run up for 25 years when mortgage rates were in the 9% to 10% range.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 7:26 pm

Blog dog Walter worries his daughter will never be able to get her own place. Most parents feel the same lately.
————–
Walter, don’t worry.
She will happily live after, without an expensive RE anchor suffocating her for life.
Get over it, and let her enjoy the benefits of renting.

#80 the Jaguar on 09.03.21 at 7:46 pm

Meet Calgary’s soon to be new Mayor. Jyoti Gondek . You go girl. The municipal election takes place in October. My lips to yours, she will be the new Mayor. You can take that to the Bank.

She called out today’s measure by the UCP to entice those who have not yet elected to be ‘vaxxed’ by paying them $100.00 to ‘step up’. There will of course be an avalanche of outrage over this measure. It’s one of those carrot versus stick issues. In exasperation the ‘powers that be’ have decided the only way to lead is through a pay off. Sounds like something the PM would entertain. Note Kenney actually sez ” For the love of God……etc’. Guess who he is calling out? Not just the irresponsible element ( young people and their incredibly irresponsible and neglectful parents), but the religious nuts.

Here is the Jaguar solution: A very firm and immediate announcement to all citizens advising that anyone who has elected not to step up and get vaccinated to be aware that if they ‘present’ to any health care facility with Covid issues as a result of their failure to support public health measures, and are found to be unvaxxed, will need to pay a “negligence penalty’ for costs incurred to the public health care system which has been forced to cancel surgeries and other procedures, never mind the shame they should feel about holding back everyday commerce, the impact on lives of other Albertans, etc, etc.

Maybe Dharma Bum’s kid can write up the charges for us. Ensure your Visa or Mastercard can handle a minimum $5,000.00 charge. That would be “On presentation’ of your miserable ass to the receiving medical unit. You won’t be able to get or renew your driver’s license until you pay up.

This does not apply to any person who for medical reasons cannot receive the vaccine.

Sounds a bit harsh, I suppose. That’s why I like the idea so much. But it’s a retreat from my original reaction that involved a Smith & Wesson Model 29. Mercy

#81 SW on 09.03.21 at 7:52 pm

#26 Dolce Vita on 09.03.21 at 4:20 pm

Thanks for your information, as always.

Be well, do good work and stay in touch!

#82 Ok, Doomer on 09.03.21 at 8:12 pm

It’s really interesting seeing how many Trudeau-paid commenters are crawling out of the woodwork on this blog.

Lots of T2 fanboys. His owners must be petrified to think that they need to spend $$ on getting these pumpers on here.

It’d be interesting to see how many of these Trudeau paid shills are paid by WE.

#83 Faron on 09.03.21 at 8:18 pm

#68 Lead Paint on 09.03.21 at 6:38 pm

#46 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm

You have a Trump-like penchant for vilifying people that don’t share your perspective. Not sure if that’s the look you’re going for.

I’ll add that the reason I bring sharp snark to this blog’s comments section is because of the number of times I’ve been piled onto, back stabbed and/or simply seen utter sexist, racist or otherwise trolling (Sail Away’s forays into arguing the merits of eating dog was the era of my introduction for example) garbage commented on.

I’m not complaining nor asking for an excuse, but that kind of behaviour has elicited from me a take-no-prisoners/scorched earth approach that I, frankly, agree is non productive in any real debate.

This isn’t real debate, unfortunately. This comments section is a collection of highly polarized, is mostly composed of white men, and is filled with people who lob grenades and trade barbs with each other unless the topic is something like trucks or guns or tipis or the importance of the almighty dollar. As such I see it as a target rich environment. You could describe my approach as that of the guy who catches a tear gas canister fired by police and throws it back at the police. Of course, that’s illegal somehow. That bewilders me and that animates my actions here.

#84 Not so fast on 09.03.21 at 8:21 pm

@70 House Humpers in for Climate Change Surprise

Hate to break it to you, but the East coast won’t be spared. Stay away from ocean front property, and be prepared to hunker down for more hurricanes and ice storms.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation

#85 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 8:27 pm

#26 Dolce Vita on 09.03.21 at 4:20 pm

Well, since it is inevitable I will get infected by Delta I’m going to Milano (see Last Supper again, refurbish wardrobe)

——–

DV, can you hook me up with some italian sartorial excellence? I don’t need full gigolo, but could use a look that accentuates barely-restrained smoldering raw animal vitality.

Must pair with Tilley hat. Thanks!

#86 Nonplused on 09.03.21 at 8:30 pm

#5 Exodus 2020 on 09.03.21 at 2:59 pm
I wish a party could have the guts to change the tax free capital gains to tax deductible mortgage interest instead, and tax capital gains. This would put money in the pockets up front in gradual installments instead of at the end as a lump sum when needed least. And it would fairly apply to those who report income to apply the tax deduction. And it would increase if interest rates increase, therefore protecting the market from some bankruptcies.

——————————————-

And what goodies do people who don’t have a mortgage get? Where are their tax deductions? And why should the rich with their large houses and large mortgages get bigger tax deductions than people with a modest income, modest house, and modest mortgage?

Again we need to start thinking these ideas through to find out a) why hasn’t anyone thought of it before?, b) if they did think of it, why didn’t they do it?, c) whether you support this idea merely because it would be to your benefit, and finally d) what other effects will it have when applied to the whole range of people, many of whom have varying circumstances.

#87 Sara on 09.03.21 at 8:40 pm

#68 Lead Paint on 09.03.21 at 6:38 pm
#46 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm

“You have a Trump-like penchant for vilifying people that don’t share your perspective. Not sure if that’s the look you’re going for.”

===========
You must be new here Lead Paint. Or is that just the look you went for?

New blog dog or not, let me try and set you straight.

Faron is anything but “Trump-like”. Sail Away on the other hand could be described as “Trump-like” and he would take that as a compliment!

Faron has oodles of empathy which is obvious if you read what he writes here. Sail Away appears to have none. It’s all about Sail Away – you know – “Trump-like”.

Got it?

#88 Overheardyou on 09.03.21 at 8:40 pm

What would happen to the HELOCs or mortgage debt should one or both parents pass? Do the kids have to cover the debts if the parents had no other savings/investments?

#89 When the Whip Comes Down on 09.03.21 at 8:43 pm

The LM market has priced out the average family a long time ago. Nothing has materially changed. $1.25M $1.5M or at $1.8M. More supply in LM will not change anything. Incomes must also catch up to help anyone in that market without other resources.

#90 Dunning Kruger on 09.03.21 at 8:54 pm

DELETED

#91 fishman on 09.03.21 at 8:55 pm

Just not that easy building houses. I mean its easy for me. I took out my first building permit in Vancouver in 1978. Its been a good winter hobby. Plus somewhere to stash the cash after a summer of fishing. Meanwhile I watched the govt. break the construction unions in the 80’s. Subsequently the union guys sabotaged the apprentice system. Then the schools closed the I.A. departments & substituted computer rooms. A lot of the construction workers you see everywhere on big builds are one trick ponies. Their not getting the hands on experience of the building process through all its stages. Still, theres lots of good contractors & tradesmen out there. Just not nearly enough to solve Canada’s housing crisis in the near & intermediate future. And if there’s a rush of immigration, legal &/or illegal, not even close. Lastly, a lot of older tradesmen are pissed off. The’ve watched for decades as their wages stagnated. Their unions lost their pension money. You want a well built house your going to have to dig deep.

#92 Millennial 1%er on 09.03.21 at 9:01 pm

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 9:01 pm

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.21 at 6:57 pm
@#15 BillyB
“So the vote of someone not even living in Canada is worth more than yours. Great system, eh?”

++++
Classic.

I shall be voting strategically to oust the incumbent Liberal candidate in my riding.
Hold my nose and vote NDP.
The conservative is trailing too far behind but the Libs and NDP are neck and neck.
———–
You’re not voting strategically, your vote is a hate/spite vote.
Very selfish.
As for Billy Bob, he has no clue what I’m voting for.
He calls JT my Idol. 
My religion does not worship Idols.
BillyBob says he matches his socks to the uniform he’s wearing.
What? Brown socks with a Brown Uniform is standard issue.
Billy Bob is constantly correcting my grammar.
Must be a school teacher, not a pilot.
Nothing wrong with it. Worked out well for JT.
Billy Bob, Dolce and Sailo.
All 3 voting by mail? Coincidence?

#94 45north on 09.03.21 at 9:04 pm

The Pumpers

Libs and Cons say they’d oversee the building of a million houses over three years. Few believe that. And in three years God knows what the market will smell like. Encouraging more demand now through tax breaks, new savings vehicles, longer mortgages and a gutted stress test will only make real estate richer. Meanwhile we’re fundamentally endangering the entire economy with housing-related debt as the market grows unstable.

Wolf Richter There are shortages cropping up in different types of equipment and appliances and electronics. There are reports of shortages of certain types of fasteners and all kinds of doodads that you’d normally take for granted.
The shortages are all over the auto industry, driven by the global semiconductor shortages that keep getting dragged out and are now expected to abate maybe, hopefully, possibly in 2022.

so where do we put our money?

put it into infrastructure which reduces the risk of shortages. For example, in Canada, we can put it into oil and gas infrastructure which reduces the risk of energy shortages.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 9:14 pm

#77 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 7:20 pm
#69 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 6:50 pm

Rushing things through never works.

Trump’s warp speed Moderna vaccine has been rejected for booster shots…

———-

Incorrect.

Moderna just finished their filing to start the FDA review. No determination has yet been made:
—————-
Incorrect.
Months away from approval. If ever.
Way behind Bion-Tech.

(Bloomberg) — U.S. health regulators are seeking additional coronavirus booster shot data from Moderna Inc., as the Biden administration expects to begin a widespread booster campaign later this month with only the Pfizer Inc.-BioNTech vaccine, people familiar with the matter say.
Moderna announced Friday that it had “completed” its submission of data to the Food and Drug Administration for authorization of boosters. The FDA has been seeking more data as Moderna’s submission rolled in, the people added.

#96 Barb on 09.03.21 at 9:26 pm

#80 The Jaguar

…”Here is the Jaguar solution: A very firm and immediate announcement to all citizens advising that anyone who has elected not to step up and get vaccinated to be aware that if they ‘present’ to any health care facility with Covid issues as a result of their failure to support public health measures, and are found to be unvaxxed, will need to pay a “negligence penalty’ for costs incurred to the public health care system which has been forced to cancel surgeries and other procedures, never mind the shame they should feel about holding back everyday commerce, the impact on lives of other Albertans, etc, etc. ”

————————
“negligence penalty”. It even sounds good.

About as perfect an idea as could be achieved.
Certainly an improvement over the $100 enticement.

#97 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 9:41 pm

#87 Sara on 09.03.21 at 8:40 pm

New blog dog or not, let me try and set you straight.

———

When somebody is observing a hog enthusiastically rooting through manure, it is very difficult to convince them they are actually watching a majestic swan.

#98 Faron on 09.03.21 at 10:01 pm

#97 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 9:41 pm
#87 Sara on 09.03.21 at 8:40 pm

So, if I’m the hog rooting through your nonsense… Ya wanna rethink that one sailo?

#99 summer_reading on 09.03.21 at 10:01 pm

As Garth noted, our economy is threatened by unstable debt from Real estate, as it become dominated only by the Real Estate industry, and this is detrimental for our economy and our society. So far, the federal political parties (Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, etc.) are not willing to propose any substantial measures to cool off the overheated housing market in their election platforms because 1. they do not want to get blamed for causing a housing crash/housing correction, and 2. many Members of Parliaments own property themselves so they have a vested interest in keeping real estate prices high. Substantial measures to make housing affordable would include removing the primary residence exemption so that it would be subject to capital gains tax just like stocks and other investments, and increasing the down payment requirement so there is less risk to borrowers and lenders. Since none of the parties want to actually make housing cost less (that is actually what affordable means), it’s time to consider voting in independent candidates or maybe start an Affordable Housing Party: https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/ouc3vs/its_time_for_an_affordable_housing_political

#100 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 10:07 pm

#74 Faron on 09.03.21 at 7:02 pm
#64 Sail Away on 09.03.21 at 6:25 pm

#55 Faron on 09.03.21 at 5:56 pm
#151 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 11:37 am

Fear them like the devil and Bernie too. And you. Inferring racism where there was none. You and your ilk are the problem. Bozo.

1) The Devil doesn’t exist. When dealing with others it’s good to know they are afraid of phantasms.

2) Does your list not include only women and/or people of colour? You doubled down on the “fear” part, so it’s clear now that you fear those on your list.

3) Can you point out where I called you a racist? I can’t seem to see it.

“You’ve cast YE as a misogynistic racist”

Actually, he did the casting. Where did I call him either a misogynist or a racist? can you show me those words in my comment please?

It did seem laughable and noteworthy that out of millions of left to far left people, hundreds if not thousands of them famous or in prominent leadership roles, he is most fearful of the female and black ones. Or, fearful enough that they were top of mind. And he is making me out to be as feared as “the devil” because I pointed out his obvious bias here.

To be fair then, I’ll concede that this was merely a chance occurrence albeit against extremely steep odds. That makes more sense than the very slim possibility that his media diet (i.e. Fox news) has conditioned him to fear women and people of colour in power. I apologize Yukon Elvis, you are clearly a stand-up gentleman.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The list is comprised of high profile members of her political party who are as radical as her.
You implied racism and misogyny and now you are denying it and make assumptions about my media sources that you know nothing about. You are a blowhard chickenshit virtue signaller with nothing to offer and you knowingly distort, insinuate, and make assumptions so that you can try to project how smart and virtuous you are. It isn’t working.

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 10:11 pm

#91 fishman
This is weird.
You actually agree with JT that Canada has a “housing crises”.
I respectfully must disagree with you and JT.
I just can’t agree with his proposal to build 1.4 million units.
We gotta stop the urban/suburban sprawl.
And this will cost him my vote.
The solution, IMHO, is taxing the empty housing stock (empty homes and Airnbs.
).
This should incentivize the owners of said units to release them into the open market, thus increase inventory and lower prices.

#102 BillyBob on 09.03.21 at 10:25 pm

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 9:01 pm

As for Billy Bob, he has no clue what I’m voting for.
He calls JT my Idol.

============================================

Could be the multiple times you’ve dropped a knee to JT here that gives that impression.

So then, tell us who you’re voting for. I was quite willing to share my choice when you asked.

Don’t be shy or ashamed. It’s not like it makes any difference anyway.

Or, just continue with your usual inconsistent/incoherent ramblings. Those are always entertaining too.

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 10:26 pm

#96 Barb on 09.03.21 at 9:26 pm
#80 The Jaguar

…”Here is the Jaguar solution: A very firm and immediate announcement to all citizens advising that anyone who has elected not to step up and get vaccinated to be aware that if they ‘present’ to any health care facility with Covid issues as a result of their failure to support public health measures, and are found to be unvaxxed, will need to pay a “negligence penalty’ for costs incurred to the public health care system which has been forced to cancel surgeries and other procedures, never mind the shame they should feel about holding back everyday commerce, the impact on lives of other Albertans, etc, etc. ”

————————
“negligence penalty”. It even sounds good.

About as perfect an idea as could be achieved.
Certainly an improvement over the $100 enticement.
————–
Wow, what happened to “personal responsibility”.
Things must be really bad in Cowboy Land.
Don’t tell me you gonna vote for JT now.
You can take my spot.

#104 Scaron on 09.03.21 at 10:27 pm

#83 Faron on 09.03.21 at 8:18 pm
…blah blah blah…
Tl;dr – Much bloviating to justify being a simple troll

#105 Lead Paint on 09.03.21 at 10:31 pm

#87 Sara on 09.03.21 at 8:40 pm

You must be new here Lead Paint. Or is that just the look you went for?

Actually, I’ve been here a while.

The above link is the first post historical post I could find. How about you ‘Sara’?

Perhaps you didn’t notice, but here I am calling you and Faron on your gender based role play. This seems to continue.

Here I am thanking Garth for improving my life. showing my history on this blog over a decade, before Faron showed up. Smoking Man and Freedom First were entities at that time. Do you know who they are?

“#75 Faron on 09.03.21 at 7:04 pm ”
When SA does this (and I notice) I call him on it. And I don’t share his politics. But don’t kid yourself, you do this far more than he does. But back to basics, you attacked Yukon Elvis, not SA. And please acknowledge your use of ‘whataboutism’.

#106 Michael in-north-york on 09.03.21 at 10:34 pm

#31 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.03.21 at 4:31 pm

The Republicans are patiently waiting in the wings, filibustering every legislation, hoping that Trump is still alive in 2024.
So he can finish of what he started: Demolish the American Republic (Democracy).
===

Oh come on, Trump will not demolish the Republic, and he will not win in 2024. Trump is a great showman, that can’t be taken from him. But he is a lousy administrator and a lousy leader.

At this time, Trump’s continued political presence is an asset for the Dems. Helps the Dems paint the Reps as loonies, while making it harder for the Reps to find a new leader.

#107 Linda on 09.03.21 at 10:36 pm

#46 ‘Squire’ – I went back to look at the article – it was a CBC news article published August 8th, 2021. The issue was a broken sewage line. The affordable housing units were modular homes built in Edmonton as per the CBC article & shipped to Calgary. Apparently the setup won some design awards. Anyway, as per CBC there were 16 units built on some leftover land – skinny lots half the size of a normal city lot – adjacent to the TransCanada Hwy. The $4 million dollar cost for the project was covered by all 3 levels of government – federal, provincial, municipal. From the CBC article it looks like the project was completed in 2015, so the build was recent. $4 million apparently doesn’t get you much in the way of longevity when it comes to the infrastructure. A properly installed sewer line should last decades.

#108 IHCTD9 on 09.03.21 at 10:43 pm

#78 Freddie on 09.03.21 at 7:25 pm

Interest rates are the key, they need to raised fast and high now. This is the only way as they let this crap run up for 25 years when mortgage rates were in the 9% to 10% range.
———

Even if the PM could dictate rates, S/He wouldn’t. The entire Western world is embroiled in the same cheap money $hit $how. It’s gonna have to go in a bang, and the fallout in Canada will be among the worst in the world.

All you can do is buckle up and prepare. Don’t do anything stupid, and don’t vote for RE pumping politicians. We are officially in a self-perpetuating tornado of RE appreciation, and almost no one wants to see it blow at this point. Way too many with skin in the game now.

Some day it’ll happen (at long last), but unfortunately we’ve let it get way out of hand and the whole damn country is riding a tiger now. I hope the USD is stable when we do pass the event horizon, some of us will need a safe haven.

#109 DON on 09.03.21 at 11:02 pm

#61 Garth’s Son Drake on 09.03.21 at 6:19 pm
Housing will be an afterthought once the fall arrives and people realize ctrl + print on money has stopped and all of the sudden cannot pay their basic bills. It is happening right now…
*********

Nicely put…but it is different this time. It’s a bigger bubble. The Aussies have the same problem same type of economy. The commodity boom saved us in 2009. Now that China has access to the rare earth metals in Afghanistan, they may have less reliance on Canada and Australia?

#110 the jaguar on 09.03.21 at 11:28 pm

@96 Barb.

Thanks, Barb. It’s a reference to my previous rant ( apologies offered), about accepting personal responsibility for the choices one makes.

If they only impact the individual, fair ball. If they put health and livlihood of others at risk then put your money where your mouth is and open your wallet. If you wish to stand on the pedestal of your convictions then do it in isolation and not on the hard won freedom of those who stepped up for the greater good and got vaccinated. I am appalled that the usual defence given on this issue is one of ‘privacy’. Would i object to someone asking me if I ever received a vax for chicken pox or polio or whatever?? Of course not. What a load of garbage, a cowardly defense, and a failure of personal responsibility. Failure to launch and disrespectful to those of previous generations who paved the way to our freedom and prosperity.

Bill Grable, I salute you if you are still following the blog comments. You are much admired.

#111 Smoking... on 09.03.21 at 11:42 pm

Estimated 48,000 Canadians die of Smoking each year.

Countless others live with chronic illness.

https://www.lung.ca/lung-health/lung-info/lung-statistics/smoking-and-tobacco-statistics

QUIT!

#112 Faron on 09.04.21 at 12:20 am

#100 Yukon Elvis on 09.03.21 at 10:07 pm

It’s okay. I will take at face value that you stated a preference for Biden over those in your list. That will save you from examining why they magically jumped to the forefront of your mind as more evil alternatives than the guy currently in power. I acknowledge that this could have happened by chance. I sincerely don’t think you are racist nor misogynistic as much as a person whose views have remained mired in the era in which they were formed. This is common.

“Comprised of” is the improper use of the word comprised BTW. See, I offered something! HAGW.

#113 millmech on 09.04.21 at 12:26 am

#59 Faron
How much money do you have at play and also with all these market insights, Quants, Gamma Squeezes etc that you have put forth what is your YTD return, is it well above average with access to this information. I have posted positions on here and would not mind finding out which companies you have bought, also you spoke of meme stocks, which ones and did you run options(strategies) and were they successful or not.

#114 Jane Finch on 09.04.21 at 1:49 am

CBC bobble heads insist Trudeau can win if he can paint the camp followers of a nasty protest brigade as racist anti vaxxers by Labour Day. Bloomberg says he’s going down like an anchor. Who to believe?

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/trudeau-tumbles-further-behind-conservative-freight-train

Any hope of a “Hail Mary” coalition at this point looks more like a desperate but failed rescue mission.

#115 TurnerNation on 09.04.21 at 2:16 am

Ready for the Economic Resets into 2022-23?
From the ‘Almost Over’ Dept. You will love your mask. Maybe forever.

.Boris Johnson to extend ‘draconian’ lockdown laws for six months (standard.co.uk)

.Manitoba’s vaccine requirement to take effect Friday, province to add outdoor gathering limits (winnipeg.ctvnews.ca)

.Alberta reinstates mask mandate and liquor curfew (edmontonjournal.com)

.[Canadian] Post-secondary students frustrated as more classes move online (youtu.be)

.Sri Lanka in Economic emergency due to conditions brought on by Covid policies and restriction (bbc.com)

— Heyyy new camps. What timing.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2021/08/government-of-canada-announces-funding-for-covid-19-safe-voluntary-isolation-sites-in-ontario.html
“Government of Canada Announces Funding for COVID-19 Safe Voluntary Isolation Sites in Ontario
August 13, 2021 | Ottawa, Ontario | Public Health

#116 El Viejo on 09.04.21 at 3:21 am

#48 Old Gringo.

Yup, I can see it now, sun going down, the wife and I sitting pretty with shotguns across our lap, waiting for the locals to jump the fence and murder us in our sleep. Having lived in Mexico during a by-gone career I wasnt surprised after a while, when the shock wore off, how many senior Norteno residents were killed after the sun went down. Don’t isolate in Mexico. Stay in a guarded community of many. Stay safe. The reason property in Mexico is low is because the murder rate is high.

#117 Richard L on 09.04.21 at 7:33 am

Canadian Real Estate market has become a giant ponzi scheme.

Who will be the last investor(s) left holding the bag?

#118 Sail Away on 09.04.21 at 8:06 am

#29 Faron on 09.03.21 at 4:28 pm

Physical and verbal assault while badgering haggered

——–

‘haggard’

#119 Destroying the Republic on 09.04.21 at 8:49 am

#31 Pontificating Pompousness

“hoping that Trump is still alive in 2024.
So he can finish of what he started: Demolish the American Republic (Democracy).”

***************************************

Imagine being so ill informed about Democracy and Republics that you don’t know they are fundamentally different and yet still decide to pontificate on who will destroy “it”.

President Trump will be remembered mainly for appointing 3 SC justices whose main qualification was that they are “originalists” who profess loyalty to the original meaning of the Constitution, that great document that makes the USA a Constitutional Republic, as opposed to a pure democracy.

So while Trump protected the greatest form of government ever devised, far superior to pure democracy, the Democrats try to destroy the Republic by threatening to pack the SC in order to remove vital amendments to the Constitution, especially the 2nd, but also the first (the absolute most important).

I think it’s not far from the truth to say many Democrats would do away with the Constitution altogether given the chance.

With all the things possible to criticize Trump for, I am always amazed the biggest critics pick the things that are the exact opposite of the truth. Why is that?

#120 KLNR on 09.04.21 at 9:19 am

@#99 summer_reading on 09.03.21 at 10:01 pm
As Garth noted, our economy is threatened by unstable debt from Real estate, as it become dominated only by the Real Estate industry, and this is detrimental for our economy and our society. So far, the federal political parties (Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, etc.) are not willing to propose any substantial measures to cool off the overheated housing market in their election platforms because 1. they do not want to get blamed for causing a housing crash/housing correction, and 2. many Members of Parliaments own property themselves so they have a vested interest in keeping real estate prices high. Substantial measures to make housing affordable would include removing the primary residence exemption so that it would be subject to capital gains tax just like stocks and other investments, and increasing the down payment requirement so there is less risk to borrowers and lenders. Since none of the parties want to actually make housing cost less (that is actually what affordable means), it’s time to consider voting in independent candidates or maybe start an

over 75% of canucks own property, the gov who decides to remove the primary res exception won’t be in power very long. not to mention folks just won’t be selling their houses as often leading to supply issues leading to further price appreciation. maybe one day the BOC will raise the rate more than a 1/4 point, then we may see prices stabilize a bit.

Canada’s ownership rate is just over 68%. – Garth

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.21 at 9:52 am

@#105 Lead Paint

“Actually, I’ve been here a while.

++++++

Don’t bother about Sara.
She suffers from “Foot in Mouth” disease.

#122 Dharma Bum on 09.04.21 at 10:12 am

“Those looking to government will be misled.” – Garth

—————————————————————————————-

Uhhhhhh….do ya think?

Man oh man…truer words were never spoken.

That quote should be etched in granite and mounted over the entrance doors to the parliament buildings.

Unfortunately, the stupid tend to look to government.

That’s the majority. We live in the land of the stupid.

They surround and engulf us.

The fortresses must be continually buttressed.

Keep up the good fight.