Whiffing

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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Forecasts come in many forms, but two types get the most media attention.

First are the shocking and dire forecasts, which provide great headline value for media outlets. Fear sells, don’t ya know:

The sky is falling!

Source: CNBC, Business Insider

 

These forecasts usually appear shortly after a major market or economic downturn when investors are already primed with anxiety thus giving the dire forecast maximum traction. But a clue that you can ignore them often lies in the forecaster’s modus operandi. David Tice, for instance, is a “long-time bear”. It’s of little value to investors to be an eternal pessimist when, of course, the majority of the time stocks perform well. Unsurprisingly, the above forecasts were wildly inaccurate as markets have advanced strongly since the articles were published. So much for their warnings. We’ve argued before against permabear forecasters (https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/08/20/apocalypse-later/), so I won’t belabour the point, but simply put, it’s best to disregard them.

The other type of forecast that garners plenty of media attention is the cheerful consensus outlook, which is usually trotted out by the financial press at the beginning or midway point of the year. In its own way, the consensus forecast is just as faulty as the dire predictions. New York Times journalist Jeff Sommer highlights just how bad these consensus forecasts can be:

In December 2019, the median consensus on Wall Street was that the S&P 500 would rise 2.7 percent in the 2020 calendar year. At the moment, that target is too low: On Friday, the market was up almost 15 percent for the year [Sommer’s article is dated December 18, 2020—the S&P 500 actually ended the year up 18%]. That’s a forecasting error of more than 12 percentage points — much greater than the estimate of the market’s increase for the entire year.
How bad of a forecast is that? It’s as if you were told that it would snow 2.7 inches just before a blizzard dumped 15 inches on your town.

What’s worse is that the Wall Street consensus forecast then abruptly became extremely bearish. After February and March 2020 were in the books, Wall Street analysts recalibrated, calling at that point for an 11% DECLINE in markets for the year. Unfortunately, that consensus forecast basically coincided with massive Fed and government stimulus and, well, you know how 2020 ultimately turned out.

In fact, Sommer goes on to point out that the median Wall Street forecast from 2000 through 2020 missed its target by an average of 12.9 percentage points and not once did it call for a market decline when, in fact, six of those years actually saw markets drop.

So what to do?

Be skeptical of forecasts. Stay balanced. Stay invested. Remarkably, even if market predictions turn out to be entirely accurate (they almost certainly won’t be) and you time your entry points perfectly, outperformance still won’t necessarily be the result.

Dynamic Chief Investment Strategist Myles Zyblock compellingly argues this point. Zyblock examined four investor types across the S&P 500 market-timing spectrum. Over the long term, each investor type received a hypothetical $500 per month and could deploy this accumulating cash into the S&P 500 at any point that they felt was prudent. He nicknamed the investors: “Top Tick” Tommy, who always hit the major peaks (the worst timing); “Perfect” Penny, who always hit the major troughs (the best timing); “Steady” Eddie, who simply invested the 500 bucks regularly each month; and “Waiting” Winston, who never found a prudent entry point and never got invested. As you may have already guessed, Steady Eddie did the best, outperforming even Perfect Penny:

Hypothetical portfolio value based on market-timing investor type

Source: Dynamic; Based on the price variability and returns of the S&P 500 over 40 years. US 3-month T-Bill rate used for cash savings.

The accumulating cash drag of even someone as skilled as Perfect Penny explains the underperformance. As Zyblock concludes: “Even with extremely good predictions, we see that an investor can still lag behind one that is simply fully invested.”

Now, while market predictions should always be viewed with skepticism, this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t still rebalance your portfolio regularly and (gently) tilt it towards regions, sectors or styles (value, growth, etc.) where the outlook is more favourable—supported, of course, by careful analysis.

The problem occurs when investors overreact to forecasts, trust them blindly and make dramatic portfolio changes or market-timing wagers as a result.

The best plan? Maintain a fully-invested balanced portfolio that you contribute to regularly and ignore anyone carrying a crystal ball.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

94 comments ↓

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 08.21.21 at 10:23 am

And to trot out another of Garth’s faves: it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.

Why don’t these forecasters save themselves a bunch of time and say, “the dart board forecasts x% gain/loss this year”?

#2 TurnerNation on 08.21.21 at 10:30 am

Debt: our countries were purposfully plunged into unimaginable debt. Unrepayable. This war is not meant to be won.
Well I guess some of my fellow slaves are happy with the new electronic tracking code collars, our global masters have issued to us. Power handed over means their hands on you. Forevermore. At this point the global state via its proxy large corporations, owns our bodies – tied to our very limited ‘rights’.


–The War on Small Business.

“On Small Business
NYC Businesses Sue De Blasio for Requiring Vaccination Proof – By Chris Dolmetsch | Bloomberg
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was sued by a group of small business owners who say requiring all customers and employees to show proof of vaccination against Covid will severely impact their livelihoods.”
The Holy Trinty is here: “We believe that that third dose will ultimately be needed to provide the fullest and continual extent of protection that we think people will need for the virus,” the Surgeon General said.”


— Alllllmost over guys! What’s a case again. Permanent rolling lockdowns at here until 2025. The plan.

.As Covid deaths surge, Sri Lanka prepares for lockdown(france24.com)

.COVID-19 restrictions extended to entire B.C. Interior Health region as cases surge (globalnews.ca)

— Shocking picture of situation in Vietnam. The Consp. Theorists told us this was coming. Storm Troopers deployed onto the populice.
https://i.redd.it/32diurgd6li71.jpg

———————–

– OK then. Trust the Science.

Covid-19: FDA set to grant full approval to Pfizer vaccine without public discussion of data
BMJ 2021; 374 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2086 (Published 20 August 2021)
Cite this as: BMJ 2021;374:n2086
“The FDA also has held meetings of the VRBPAC on all three covid-19 vaccines authorised for emergency use and does not believe a meeting is needed related to this biologics license application.”

#3 Phylis on 08.21.21 at 10:36 am

The thing about predictions and projections is that they can change if the narrative is not going in the desired direction, even without a forward looking statements disclaimer.

#4 SW on 08.21.21 at 10:49 am

Good column. It might appear boring, but it works.

I wish I’d known this when I was young, but better late than never!

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 10:56 am

“Balanced and Diversified.”, said the tortoise to the hare…..

#6 Flop... on 08.21.21 at 10:59 am

Winnebago moves to Winnipeg would have made a better headline…

M47BC

“Winnebago moves headquarters from Iowa to Minnesota.

The company makes motor homes, travel trailers, fifth-wheel products, boats, and commercial community outreach vehicles under brands including Winnebago, Chris-Craft and Newmar. It recently acquired Barletta Pontoon Boats.

The company reported in June record quarterly revenue of $960.7 million for its third quarter, which ended in May, a 138% increase from the same period the year before.

Sales have boomed during the coronavirus pandemic as consumers have sought camping vacations rather than traveling on airplanes or visiting crowded public areas.

The company said consumer demand has created a backlog of more than 46,600 towable campers worth $1.52 billion and a backlog of 18,145 for its signature motor homes valued at $2.18 billion.”

#7 Edward Bear on 08.21.21 at 11:09 am

The irresponsibility of many business news outlets and pundits verges on criminal.

#8 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 11:14 am

Sail Away, is it true that Elon Musk chose you to be the model for the new Optimus project, in the same way that Emilio Fernandez was the inspiration for the Oscar statuette? Point # 3 below is a bit of a relief….

“1 TAKING ON DANGEROUS, REPETITIVE TASKS
Tesla is launching a humanoid robot that Elon Musk says can help eliminate “dangerous, repetitive and boring tasks,” while promising its human handlers that they will be able to outrun it should it turn evil.

2 ‘OPTIMUS’ WILL HAVE HUMAN SHAPE
The Tesla Bot, code-named Optimus, is to enter its prototype phase and will likely be developed next year, Musk said. He promised that it “will be real,” with a human shape. It will weigh just under 126 pounds, stand 5-foot-8 and be capable of lifting 150 pounds.

3 YOU CAN LIKELY OUTRUN IT
It will have a top speed of 8 km/h, which means people should easily be able to run away from it. While promising the robot will be “friendly,” Musk added: “We’re setting it such that it is at a mechanical level, a physical level, that you can run away from it — and most likely overpower it.”

4 PHYSICAL WORK IN FUTURE ‘WILL BE A CHOICE’
Optimus is touted to change the future of work — but not yet. “This is why I think, long term, there will need to be universal basic income but not right now,” Musk said. “The future of physical work will be a choice. If you want to do it you can do it, but you do not need to do it.”

#9 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 11:21 am

Doug,

Did you by any chance read the ‘forecast’ paper by Economist Jean Pisani-Ferry ( Peterson Institution of International Economics)?

He writes about a 1970’s style oil shock, supply chain issues, etc. Should we just throw out such musings like the baby with the bath water?

Hard to know what or who to take seriously….

#10 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 11:43 am

#132 Faron on 08.20.21 at 11:26 pm

And thanks to you and Sail Away for proving, for the zillionth time, that expecting any kind of thoughtful discussion from this crowd is a fool’s errand. Truly a sad state of affairs when twitter offers more nuanced and thoughtful analysis. This planet and the people on it are doomed to failure by your example.

———–

???

This is at least partially an investing blog. 16 months ago, I reported 4 buys as is my wont, and you, as is your wont, ridiculed the choices and insulted me.

Those four have now returned an average of 123%. It’s not my fault if this infuriates you.

And here you are squandering another chance for self-education.

#11 Millennial 1%er on 08.21.21 at 11:44 am

It’s really.. that easy? All I have to do is buy ETFs & wait? There are no tricks?

#12 Pankko on 08.21.21 at 11:50 am

“this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t still rebalance your portfolio regularly and (gently) tilt it towards regions, sectors or styles (value, growth, etc.) where the outlook is more favourable—supported, of course, by careful analysis.”

If that’s true, you should be able to demonstrate it in a future blog post. Take the opinion of the experts at the beginning of each year over the past 10, and tweak the weightings accordingly year by year. Compare that to steady eddy who re-balances once per year to the original goal.

My bet is that this careful analysis and gentle tilting is either mildly harmful or neutral.

#13 Triplenet on 08.21.21 at 11:59 am

Doug,
The 10-20-30 year bond yield versus inflation rate relationship.
Should we be concerned?

#14 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 12:04 pm

Ah yes, misleading, sensationalist headlines. Here’s another:

‘Six injured as self-driving Tesla crashes in school carpark in southern England’ -Telegraph and Reuters

It even sucked in some blogdogs on this erudite site, for goodness’ sakes.

*update- headlines have since been modified to remove ‘self-driving’. So basically a car accident happened in England.*

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/opinion-tesla-autopilot-nhtsa-investigation-headlines-are-out-of-control.3661/

#15 BlogDog123 on 08.21.21 at 12:28 pm

T2’s election playbook (worked last time!):

1. Brief carefully orchestrated media appearances. Show a multicultural mix of people in the background who ignore your blackface and look past your foolish behaviours.
2. Take only 3 questions at these media appearances. Dodge, shift blame, short answers, speak with that annoying nazally pausing tone, avoid, non-answer, next question!
3. Fear-monger: Saying everything will be good with Liberals, bad with Conservative government. Vilify the cons as people stealing your money and cutting, gutting and cruelty… preventing T2 from piling on more debt for someone else to worry about.
4. Let the conservatives implode with their infighting or some backbencher’s off-platform statement that you’ll exploit for your next media appearance.
Repeat until Sept 19th.

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 12:30 pm

A harbinger of the looming Federal Election?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-nova-scotia-voter-turnout-in-election-was-near-historic-low/

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 12:43 pm

Hmmm.
A plane load of 190 Afghans flown out of Kabul via Air Force Canada.
A far cry from the 20,000 promised by our fearless feminist.

Perhaps he can sling verbal blame worthy mud at the Taliban as the party poopers to his unrealized promises and hope that it doesn’t splatter on the Canadian bureaucrats that are truly to blame.

He certainly cant blame the military since most of those top brass are running for cover in sex scandal after sex scandal.
Time to appoint a female Air Force Commander to set things right?
Stay tuned.
The She-recovery like the airplane engines are just getting warmed up.

#18 Doomerberg strikes again! on 08.21.21 at 12:43 pm

Rosie Doomerberg predicts a bear market!!..again! he has never been wrong…..

https://financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-why-we-are-not-at-the-start-of-a-new-bull-market

#19 Pbrasseur on 08.21.21 at 12:43 pm

Predicting the stock market is like predicting the climate, lots of people do it but it is in fact impossible.

#20 My Body My Choice on 08.21.21 at 12:47 pm

I’m a market timer.

When the market is extremely overpriced (like now), I sell.

When the market is extremely underpriced, I buy.

Worked well for me during the 50% crashes in 2000, 2008 and 2020.

#21 TurnerNation on 08.21.21 at 12:49 pm

— The state of “health care” in Kanada. But the Hospital Capacity guys! Are we still banging pots and pans at 7pm?

Trained, professional, healthy peopleto be given the boot.
What do our front line heros rely on for their decisions. “Thank you for your service now here’s the door.”
As I’ve been saying for a year, in the new global system you have no right to be healthy.

.University Health Network to terminate unvaccinated employees in October (toronto.citynews.ca)

.Healthcare systems wary of instituting COVID-19 vaccine mandate over fears of losing staff (www.washingtonexaminer.com)

.Massive Nurse Shortage Hits Houston—Weeks After 150 Unvaccinated Nurses and Hospital Workers Fired
https://fee.org/articles/massive-nurse-shortage-hits-houston-weeks-after-150-unvaccinated-nurses-and-hospital-workers-fired/


— Let’s fire 10-20% of the staff. Well they’ve survived this long on the front lines.

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/193/32/E1259
How many Canadian health workers remain unvaccinated?
Lauren Vogel and Diana Duong
CMAJ August 16, 2021
——————

–Over, very soon guys!! Or 2025. That said among my friends, associates CV never was an issue at all. Life goes on. No one I know cares. Hey this WW3 is for our minds, after all.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-21/science-can-t-keep-up-with-virus-creating-worry-for-vaccinated
The Vaccinated Are Worried and Scientists Don’t Have Answers
August 21, 2021, 5:00 AM EDT Updated on August 21, 2021, 11:30 AM EDT

#22 Nick Woronuk on 08.21.21 at 12:59 pm

Good article Doug. Through the years of investing that we have done, we have been reminded of this approach over and over. Adjustments to the portfolio go hand in hand with not having an emotional attachment to particular investments. If the stock is down it doesn’t necessarily mean it is good to buy more and lower your average cost. If the optimism for the stock has passed… time to move on. The world is a changing place and rebalancing into new opportunities may be the move to make.

#23 Bartman on 08.21.21 at 1:11 pm

Hey Doug, should there be any investment in Bitcoin?

#24 My Body My Choice on 08.21.21 at 1:15 pm

How to solve the Housing Crisis:

1. Raise the Prime Rate 1/4% as follows:

Oct. 1/2021 2.75%
Mar. 1/2022 3.00%
June 1/2022 3.25%
Jan. 1/2023 3.50%

2. Only allow 20-year amortization/mortgages.

3. Cap immigration at 100,000 for 5 years. (Won’t happen because it’s racist.)

4. Governments need to start selling small portions of crown land across the country for residential development.

#25 Penny Henny on 08.21.21 at 1:41 pm

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 10:09 am

Interesting.
I’ve been watching this extended heat wave all across Northern America’s breadbasket and wonder when the price of food will skyrocket beyond its current levels.

Grain crops at brutal lows.
Meat producers forced to slaughter everything due to rising feed costs.

Here comes Inflation riding along side several of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse, Famine and Disease.

We only need China invading Taiwan to complete a Trifecta of Misery.

///////////////

Not happening until after next year’s Olympics

#26 AlMac on 08.21.21 at 1:50 pm

In addition to financial markets, forecasts of real estate and interest rate trends have also been all over the map for decades now. Those constantly predicting a decline in RE and a rise of IRs were particularly wrong; unknown future events are often used afterwards to justify the inaccuracies of those predictions.

#27 Faron on 08.21.21 at 2:13 pm

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 10:09 am

Yeah, I wonder when beef and wheat prices will spike. I don’t look at wheat or cattle futures. Horrible year for farmers in BC and the prairies. To the best of my understanding, this summer was climate change plus really bad luck. But we don’t know yet if there is a more systematic change that means summers like this one will be a regular occurrence. Have to remember that summer 2020 was record cold and wet in some parts of BC.

Now that the US is out (ish) of Afghanistan, the MIC will be chomping at the bit for another conflict to keep revenues up. A skirmish with China would do the trick.

#28 Mortgages on 08.21.21 at 2:21 pm

My body my choice, they should raise interest rates but much more. The prime rate should be 4.00% by March-2023 and 5.00% by January-2024.

Amortizations should be only 10 years on all renewals and 15 years for all new mortgages for mortgages over $600,000. The rest under $600,000 can stay with the 25 year amortization for mortgages.

All new mortgages should have a 15% minimum down payment and CHMC mortgage insurance coverage should be only eligible for mortgages under $700,000. The Bank of Canada qualifying mortgage rates should be raised to 8% for all mortgages at renewal.

Rental income can no longer be included as part of the total income qualification for mortgages.

#29 Wrk.dover on 08.21.21 at 2:24 pm

#137 Dr V on 08.21.21 at 2:09 am
Wrk.dover – is there a particular code for building size in your province?
_________________________________

I have no idea, it is a municipal thing as far as I know.

My small house is many times larger than a tiny house, but still only around 1000 sq ft. I also have 6′ tall door openings with antique doors hung, 7′ 4″ ceilings and only one bedroom, which is in the walk in basement.

It is finished with all high end appointments but due to the previously mentioned features, the assessor hates it and the annual taxes are about $650.

At 5’8″, I didn’t build it to resale to a tall person, I built it to afford on a 23% interest rate in 1981.

A friend bought a loaded Bronco for the same amount we spent on the materials the same year.

#30 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 2:35 pm

Personally I am not sure why one would give any more credence to a financial piece that appears on the MSM than one would any of their other fake news. All they are doing is selling advertising and pushing narrative. It contains no more signal or useful information than “America’s Got Talent”. And it’s less entertaining.

For example, did you see this one:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fbi-finds-little-evidence-of-organized-plot-for-january-6-capitol-riot/ar-AANyoDA

So why are the MSM admitting now that January 6th was not a “well coordinated attack on our democracy”, but rather just a protest that went unpredictably wrong as they often do? Because the narrative doesn’t have legs anymore. People are bored with it and they are tuning out. It isn’t getting Pelosi anywhere. Time to move on to the Taliban or something.

Notice how the BLM riots which left looting and arson in their wake were “mostly peaceful protests”, but January 6th was a “coordinated attack on our democracy worse than 9/11”? Fact is it was a slow news day. When there is no news, they make it up. The airwaves must be filled.

So now the big item on the news is all the US equipment that the Taliban now possesses. Except most of it isn’t really US equipment. US made perhaps, but that equipment was in the possession of the Afghan Army, whom the US has been training and supplying for 20 years. Of course when the Afghan army folded it was going to fall into the hands of the Taliban! But the MSM is acting as if it was a total surprise. What was Biden supposed to do? Disarm the Afghan army before he pulled out?

And sure the Taliban got a bunch of helicopters and Humvees. So what? How long will those be running without American parts, support and training? They probably can’t fly any of the helicopters now unless they take an Afghan pilot hostage. I mean, the Taliban is brave beyond all reason, which is partly what makes them dangerous, but you don’t just jump in a helicopter and fly it, let alone do the maintenance. It’s not a story. But it is a story. But it’s not a story.

I doubt the Taliban has the knowledge to do an oil change on a Humvee. They won’t be running for long. Maybe the Russians will come in and keep everything maintained for them, but otherwise it won’t last long. There is no story here.

So, long and short of it is that you shouldn’t trust the MSM. Their motive is to sell advertisements, and that is their only motive. Thus they run whatever will attract eyeballs. This is true when they run financial predictions as well. There is very little information content and the articles are designed to activate your emotions, not your brain.

They may have some political motives as well, but those are no more helpful to you than the articles meant to sell advertising.

And trust me, if the “experts” see something coming in the markets, you don’t get to see that without an expensive subscription. What gets put on CNN is the lowest value information possible, probably meant to deceive. Having some trouble getting out of you short position? Why not sponsor some doom and gloom?

Remember, everyone talks their book.

#31 Faron on 08.21.21 at 2:49 pm

#14 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 12:04 pm

Ah yes, an owners club dedicated a product for man children that does not and may never exist and is run by a paid shill who has actively doxxed and harassed anyone out there who dares point out negative facets of his holiness. Good source! And I thought only SJW’s got triggered. LOL.

#10 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 11:43 am

Doesn’t infuriate me in the least. You may look up the performance of my picks on that day to see that I have nothing to be envious of. The reality is that a monkey could have picked stocks in April, 2020 and killed it. So, good job!

You clearly have a poor ability to extract your ego from what you wanted the topic of conversation to be (look at me and how awesome I am) to what it was about (hey, lets talk about current macro conditions). Crowdie got it which, again, tells me he’s probably not an insufferable prick to be around because he knows how to converse without making everything a competition about tangential topics.

You saw Icahn’s name (got triggered) and off you went and I’ll venture that you saw it as a challenge that I even mentioned your interest in miners.

And, as always, selectively outlining your wins while failing to point out your fails (because, quoting you: “what fun would that be” and like getting your son into meme stock investing precisely at the peak of the last meme stock spike) means your advice is worthless. The only indication of your poorly performing names that you have given is that your wife’s BD set-and-forget port is performing as well as your “cowboy portfolio” by your own admission.

You hope your erudition and selectivity dresses up what we have to assume is a smoke screen. This is why I will see you as an egotistical clown until you can show enough humility to admit your failings.

#32 Faron on 08.21.21 at 2:52 pm

#28 Mortgages on 08.21.21 at 2:21 pm
My body my choice, they should raise interest rates but much more. The prime rate should be 4.00% by March-2023 and 5.00% by January-2024

Annuming you hold equities, you’d better hope this doesn’t happen. All asset prices would crater if the risk free rate were to instantly surpass the earnings yield of equities.

#33 CJohnC on 08.21.21 at 2:53 pm

An Afghan debacle,

The US and Canada are using identical planes to evacuate Afghan refugees and Canadian citizens from Kabul. The C17 globemaster with a cargo capacity of 170,900 lbs.

The US takes 600 + people each flight. Canada between 106 and 188. Not enough seatbelts Canada said in the first excuse. (Who actually gives a shit about seatbelts when you are trying to escape with your life)

Now it is heavy landing and takeoff because of extra fuel load. (Could have easily arranged midair refueling like the US ( they are all on the same team for the last 20 years after all)). The excuses are unending. Almost forgot, the paperwork isn’t processed yet.

The worst of all is that the very Afghans who risk their lives as interpreters etc for Canadian troops have been abandoned by incompetence

The fact is this Trudeau government can’t organize its way out of a paper bag.

This government has to go. Vote carefully.

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 2:54 pm

# 30 NON
I doubt the Taliban has the knowledge to do an oil change on a Humvee. They won’t be running for long. Maybe the Russians will come in and keep everything maintained for them, but otherwise it won’t last long. There is no story here.
———–
typical Western arrogance on display.
That’s why the Americans are retreating.
The Taliban have the patience, and play the long game.

#35 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 2:59 pm

#6 Flop… on 08.21.21 at 10:59 am
Winnebago moves to Winnipeg would have made a better headline…

M47BC

“Winnebago moves headquarters from Iowa to Minnesota.

The company makes motor homes, travel trailers, fifth-wheel products, boats, and commercial community outreach vehicles under brands including Winnebago, Chris-Craft and Newmar. It recently acquired Barletta Pontoon Boats.

The company reported in June record quarterly revenue of $960.7 million for its third quarter, which ended in May, a 138% increase from the same period the year before.

Sales have boomed during the coronavirus pandemic as consumers have sought camping vacations rather than traveling on airplanes or visiting crowded public areas.

The company said consumer demand has created a backlog of more than 46,600 towable campers worth $1.52 billion and a backlog of 18,145 for its signature motor homes valued at $2.18 billion.”

———————————————

It’s not just RV’s. People on Kijiji are asking $10,000 for 1986 ski boats! Kawasaki came out with a KLX300 this year, but the only way to get one is to go on a wait list. If you do get one, I am sure you could flip it for more than you paid. It seems everything from used cars to used snow blowers is going up in price, substantially. Especially work trucks. If the truck is in decent shape and can tow, it’ll draw good money.

This is not normal. Now of course the price of a new truck is also through the roof and they are hard to get, so there is some supply and demand factor, but it is not normal. I’d say it is the Canadian dollar but the same thing is happening stateside.

#36 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 08.21.21 at 3:03 pm

#11 Millennial 1%er on 08.21.21 at 11:44 am
It’s really.. that easy? All I have to do is buy ETFs & wait? There are no tricks?
=====
No, not really quite that simple ,close enough though.
You need to rebalance every so often and even more important add every single year a minimum of 25% of income ,the more the better.
Assume forced retirement from a good paying job at 60 and your money doubling every 10 years .
At 3% inflation in 24 years your money buying power is basically half of today’s.
Work it backwards from your age and as a millenial you get 2 maybe 3 cycles of doubling your money. So you see why you have to keep adding.
Also stating the obvious, which ETF’s you buy is very important.

#37 DON on 08.21.21 at 3:08 pm

#9 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 11:21 am
Doug,

Did you by any chance read the ‘forecast’ paper by Economist Jean Pisani-Ferry ( Peterson Institution of International Economics)?

He writes about a 1970’s style oil shock, supply chain issues, etc. Should we just throw out such musings like the baby with the bath water?

Hard to know what or who to take seriously….

********

1970s Oil shock and 2020 Covid created similiar conditions on an economy running hot. Be it the Covid response was big $$$$. I read about it a couple of weaks ago and it seems to be gaining more traction.

On another note…China has suggested that rich rich people share their wealth to stamp out inequality.

Tax the rich, might be a good campaign slogan in this day and age. Nothing else matters but getting elected.

#38 Wrk.dover on 08.21.21 at 3:09 pm

It is finished with all high end appointments but due to the previously mentioned features, the assessor hates it and the annual taxes are about $650.

_______________________________

I should add, that $650 tax bill also covers a 3500 sq ft one and a half story garage, 1/3 of it insulated and drywalled both up and down.

It’s all about a one bedroom house having no resale value.

Good.

#39 Henry on 08.21.21 at 3:16 pm

The eternal stock market crash forecasters have the advantage of being presented in the media as ‘He/she predicted the 2008 crash and now predicts…’ and they can keep doing that year after year, conveniently ignoring all the times they were wrong.

#40 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 3:24 pm

#8 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 11:14 am,

Did you get your Cybertruck yet? And how are those solar roof tiles working out? Or the “Full Self Driving” feature on your Tesla?

Musk is a marketer. He hasn’t really invented anything and often does not deliver on his promises.

Now, Boston Dynamics on the other hand….

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100386354

I think Musk wants robots for his Mars missions. But even that isn’t new by 29 years or so. So far what he’s got is a guy dancing in a body suit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsNc4nEX3c4

So buy Boston Dynamics. The only way Tesla is going to have a robot next year is to buy them out. Or maybe they could buy Asimo from Honda.

#41 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 3:32 pm

#31 Faron on 08.21.21 at 2:49 pm

The reality is that a monkey could have picked stocks in April, 2020 and killed it…

——-

…says every monkey who didn’t do it…

Picks are irrelevant. Actions matter.

99% of success in life comes from taking the proper action at the proper time.

There’s a lesson in this.

#42 Winterpeg on 08.21.21 at 3:32 pm

Re: the RV demand boom: Have been doing RV research as I, like many other recent retirees, am looking at this option for exploring the country.
One RV article I read, though, suggests more used RV’s will be up for sale in the next 2 years as the one to 2 year pandemic enthusiasm and novelty for them fizzles out. (Augmented by the cash flow problems to pay, drive and maintain them)

#43 Dogman01 on 08.21.21 at 3:33 pm

#30 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 2:35 pm

Every Soldier I have spoken with regarding Afghanistan has observed the same theme, the Afghan National Army have no will, their government is inherently corrupt and entirely based on family ties. While every NATO General and government leader has repeatedly ignored the true state of the ANA and the Afghan Government. This has been the case for 10 Years, they have been lying to promote a narrative.

Yes this is Fox but it is what i was told by Canadian soldiers whom worked their first hand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwbjbK1Mtms
In the end I see which story was true.

I hope Canadians understand the culture and values being promoted by our MSM propaganda agencies. The drive to create a Globalist Post National State with no values. There is a lot of lying, lots of debt, group think, and “Men without Chests”.
I suspect in say 50 years and a future crisis where Canadians loyalty to the institutions of their post national state will lukewarm, equal to the Afghans loyalty to their imposed regime.

#44 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 3:34 pm

#34 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 2:54 pm
# 30 NON
I doubt the Taliban has the knowledge to do an oil change on a Humvee. They won’t be running for long. Maybe the Russians will come in and keep everything maintained for them, but otherwise it won’t last long. There is no story here.
———–
typical Western arrogance on display.
That’s why the Americans are retreating.
The Taliban have the patience, and play the long game.

—————————–

Ok, assuming the Taliban figures out how and when to change the oil in their new Humvees, what happens when the transmission goes? Will the Americans sell them a new one? Actually they just might.

Afghanistan lacks the industrial capacity to produce a modern high capacity transmission suitable for a Humvee. There is no arrogance involved in that statement, it is a fact.

I wonder what the average education level of the Taliban is and how many of them have a journeyman’s mechanic certificate? I mean obviously they found someone with enough technical wherewithal to post videos on Twitter, but a 10 year old can do that.

The Americans are retreating because 20 years is more than enough. How does the saying go? “Don’t throw good money after bad.” They should have been out 18 years ago and let the devil take the hindmost.

#45 Dogman01 on 08.21.21 at 3:39 pm

The mega trend:

As you can see in Afghanistan, societies core culture, values and traditions make all the difference. In Afghanistan they have corruption, lack of will, institutions serving family interests, deemed by the locals as not worth fighting for.

I hope Canadians understand the engineering of our culture and values all to support the drive to become a Globalist Post National State.
– A declining standard of living , where eventually the majority of our population achieves and accepts only a “world average Standard of living”.
– Transition of perspective from citizens to consumers, independence to dependence, individual agency to individual passivity.
– Collective values to override individual freedoms
– Division into competing identity groups, rather than a more unified national identity.

All perhaps not worth fighting for.

“We see that as soon as we surrender the principle that the state should not interfere in any questions touching on the individual’s mode of life, we end by regulating and restricting the latter down to the smallest detail. The personal freedom of the individual is abrogated. He becomes a slave of the community, bound to obey the dictates of the majority.” – Ludwig von Mises

#46 Doug Rowat on 08.21.21 at 3:40 pm

#9 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 11:21 am
Doug,

Did you by any chance read the ‘forecast’ paper by Economist Jean Pisani-Ferry ( Peterson Institution of International Economics)?

He writes about a 1970’s style oil shock, supply chain issues, etc. Should we just throw out such musings like the baby with the bath water?

Hard to know what or who to take seriously

—-

It’s all poker bets when evaluating forecasters. The forecaster may have pocket aces, but in all probability doesn’t.

—Doug

#47 Doug Rowat on 08.21.21 at 3:48 pm

#12 Pankko on 08.21.21 at 11:50 am
“this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t still rebalance your portfolio regularly and (gently) tilt it towards regions, sectors or styles (value, growth, etc.) where the outlook is more favourable—supported, of course, by careful analysis.”

If that’s true, you should be able to demonstrate it in a future blog post….

…My bet is that this careful analysis and gentle tilting is either mildly harmful or neutral.

—-

Do you think I take requests like top-40 radio? Get to work proving your assumption.

—Doug

#48 Marc Roger on 08.21.21 at 3:57 pm

Love this blog. I read every article. Thanks.

#49 KLNR on 08.21.21 at 4:07 pm

@#37 DON on 08.21.21 at 3:08 pm
#9 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 11:21 am
Doug,

Did you by any chance read the ‘forecast’ paper by Economist Jean Pisani-Ferry ( Peterson Institution of International Economics)?

He writes about a 1970’s style oil shock, supply chain issues, etc. Should we just throw out such musings like the baby with the bath water?

Hard to know what or who to take seriously….

********

1970s Oil shock and 2020 Covid created similiar conditions on an economy running hot. Be it the Covid response was big $$$$. I read about it a couple of weaks ago and it seems to be gaining more traction.

On another note…China has suggested that rich rich people share their wealth to stamp out inequality.

Tax the rich, might be a good campaign slogan in this day and age. Nothing else matters but getting elected.

Tax the wealth will resonate as a campaign slogan.
its gonna happen.

#50 Barb on 08.21.21 at 4:14 pm

#24

“4. Governments need to start selling small portions of crown land across the country for residential development.”

———————-
In B.C., kill the 50+ year old Agricultural Land Reserve.

Apples, pears and broccoli, spinach etc. will grow on a gravel pit, given irrigation. Many fruit/vegetable crops are grown in greenhouses.

You don’t need good soil under Greenhouses to produce food. People are growing their family’s food on rooftop patios.

Only the NDP has ever believed a province with chiefly 6-7 months of winter weather is no problem to growing food. Typical…

Half acre, one-acre parcels would lower the cost of housing. Now, people are either relegated to a skinny lot in an overpriced and overpopulated community or trying to afford a house on a too-big 20 acres.

So much rural land in BC is 10, 20 and 50-acre parcels, much of it in so-so “forage” (grass), with little of it baled for animal fodder. It’s simply held.

Killing the ALR is overdue.
Allow smaller plots.

#51 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 4:19 pm

What happens when you pay people not to work? Well the data is coming in:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-if-everyone-actually-had-to-work-to-get-paid

The long and the short of it is that if you pay people not to work, they don’t work. In retrospect, that shouldn’t come as a surprise.

#52 KLNR on 08.21.21 at 4:32 pm

@#50 Barb on 08.21.21 at 4:14 pm
#24

“4. Governments need to start selling small portions of crown land across the country for residential development.”

———————-
In B.C., kill the 50+ year old Agricultural Land Reserve.

Apples, pears and broccoli, spinach etc. will grow on a gravel pit, given irrigation. Many fruit/vegetable crops are grown in greenhouses.

You don’t need good soil under Greenhouses to produce food. People are growing their family’s food on rooftop patios.

Only the NDP has ever believed a province with chiefly 6-7 months of winter weather is no problem to growing food. Typical…

Half acre, one-acre parcels would lower the cost of housing. Now, people are either relegated to a skinny lot in an overpriced and overpopulated community or trying to afford a house on a too-big 20 acres.

So much rural land in BC is 10, 20 and 50-acre parcels, much of it in so-so “forage” (grass), with little of it baled for animal fodder. It’s simply held.

Killing the ALR is overdue.
Allow smaller plots.

here in Ontario we already have our fare share of sprawl. selling crown land to developers is the last thing we need. wouldn’t do squat for housing affordability either. would be lineups to pay top dollar for whatever they build.

#53 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 4:36 pm

#43 Dogman01 on 08.21.21 at 3:33 pm

I think it is hard to underestimate how important the cultural changes that came about in Europe during the reformation and enlightenment were to the development of our modern society. Could they have happened somewhere else? Probably. Probably given time they would have. But it happened in Europe first and gave the Europeans a head start that the rest of the world can’t seem to catch up to, even with the benefit of being able to copy most of the technology wholesale.

That’s one reason phrases like “typical Western arrogance on display” sort of grate me. Any student of scientific history knows that something happened in Europe before it happened anywhere else, and it could be argued it couldn’t have happened anywhere else at the time and still can’t happen in many places now.

Sure, the Greeks and many others were on to things 1000 years before. But somehow it fizzled out. That wasn’t because there didn’t exist great minds who could have continued to advance knowledge, but because it became culturally impossible to do so.

Culture is important.

Consider for example, the Taliban saying they will guarantee women’s rights “according to Sharia law”. CNN is acting as if they are a bunch of woke cultural heroes. But what does that actually mean? Well, I don’t know for sure, but I don’t think it looks all that good. I am not thinking there is going to be a thriving scientific community with female participation arising in Afghanistan any time soon.

If Sharia law is cultural enhancement, I’ll give it a hard pass.

#54 Flop... on 08.21.21 at 4:43 pm

The Nice Lady at The Bank asked me how my summer had gone and if I was liking my new job.

I have been dealing with her for over 15 years, so when no one is around the topic can drift a bit.

She told me her husband owns a meat packaging plant and can’t get enough workers because of government handouts.

Do I know anyone who wants to work in a meat packaging plant for minimum wage?

No, no, I do not.

Maybe if I find someone she will tell me what mystery meat they put in their sausages…

M47BC

#55 Ronaldo on 08.21.21 at 4:43 pm

Slow and steady wins the race. My balanced fund has returned 9.1 percent over the past 9 years and is up 9.67 ytd. In 2020 it was up 14.2 after being down over 22% and the year before 15.8. This is net of fees. Ignore the noise.

#56 Flop... on 08.21.21 at 4:46 pm

Apparently in Australia they are about to start vaccinating construction workers onsite.

No big deal.

Just one more little prick to deal with…

M47BC

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 4:47 pm

@#44 Nonplused
“I wonder what the average education level of the Taliban is and how many of them have a journeyman’s mechanic certificate? ”

+++

If they were “lucky” enough to learn to read ( or memorize) the Koran in a Madrassa that would be about the extent of it.

However, literacy doesnt equate to intelligence.

I know of one mechanic friend who is dyslexic and can barely read….. but his skills at repairing anything involving gas powered engines and drive trains is unbelievable.

He was able to challenge and ace the written exam by answering the same questions in an oral exam.

Lives , eats and breathes engines.

Ask him to read the ingredients on a cereal box….he’s stumped.

#58 Habitt on 08.21.21 at 5:03 pm

Merci Doug. That was flipping awesome.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 5:07 pm

@#9 the jagermiester
“Did you by any chance read the ‘forecast’ paper by Economist Jean Pisani-Ferry ( Peterson Institution of International Economics)?”

+++

In the immortal observations of former President Jimmy Carter

“I found that when I asked my top Economists and Financial Experts as to where they thought the economy was going…. their answers were so vague as to be unfathomable.
When I asked my brother Billy where he, and his friends in the bar, thought the economy was headed. They gave direct, astute and invariably correct predictions.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Beer

#60 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 5:09 pm

@340 Non Plused

I really don’t follow what Elon Musk or Tesla is up to, was only trying to make Sail Away laugh. I failed.

But on your other post re the Afganistan pullout, here is an interesting read: ( or I thought so, anyway)

https://cluborlov.wordpress.com/2021/07/12/a-case-study-in-national-shame/

#61 Penny Henny on 08.21.21 at 5:16 pm

#19 Pbrasseur on 08.21.21 at 12:43 pm
Predicting the stock market is like predicting the climate, lots of people do it but it is in fact impossible.
/////////////

But Faron keeps trying. Maybe one day he will be right.

#62 mark on 08.21.21 at 5:34 pm

Maybe you can enlighten readers of how much the balanced portfolio is going to lose in a worst case scenario? Lets assume a 50% sell off on s&p 5oo or total USA stock market index

10,20,30,40,60 Percent??

#63 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 5:41 pm

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 4:47 pm
@#44 Nonplused
“I wonder what the average education level of the Taliban is and how many of them have a journeyman’s mechanic certificate? ”

+++

If they were “lucky” enough to learn to read ( or memorize) the Koran in a Madrassa that would be about the extent of it.

However, literacy doesnt equate to intelligence.

I know of one mechanic friend who is dyslexic and can barely read….. but his skills at repairing anything involving gas powered engines and drive trains is unbelievable.

He was able to challenge and ace the written exam by answering the same questions in an oral exam.

Lives , eats and breathes engines.

Ask him to read the ingredients on a cereal box….he’s stumped.

————————————-

Can he design and engineer the engine? It’s one thing to put it together once you have the parts, and yes that does require intelligence. It is another thing entirely to design the parts. You want it just right, so that it isn’t overbuilt, but it doesn’t blow apart either. I’d say most people need a mechanical engineering degree and several years of experience before GM will let them design the pistons.

Sort of like everybody can use a computer, but only 1 in 1000 can program it. I’ve seen the belly of the beast. You’d best know what you are doing.

Yes there are lots of smart but illiterate people. But I don’t think that proves anything, other than perhaps that literate and educated people have an advantage. They can stand on the shoulders of giants. Imagine if you had to figure calculus out yourself! I took many courses and I am still not sure I get it.

#64 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 5:45 pm

#60 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 5:09 pm
@340 Non Plused

I really don’t follow what Elon Musk or Tesla is up to, was only trying to make Sail Away laugh. I failed.

————————

No worries, my attempts at humor and/or literary devices often bomb too.

I guess that’s why comedians spend so much time touring the “B” circuit before they launch new material. There is really only one way to find out if a joke is going to work or bomb.

#65 CCP on 08.21.21 at 5:55 pm

Chinese Communist Party is the worse genocide promoter and doer with 72 years of experience. What else are they going to say. They take lives so why would they say not to steal your money.

#66 Doug Rowat on 08.21.21 at 5:55 pm

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 5:07 pm
@#9 the jagermiester
“Did you by any chance read the ‘forecast’ paper by Economist Jean Pisani-Ferry ( Peterson Institution of International Economics)?”

+++

In the immortal observations of former President Jimmy Carter

“I found that when I asked my top Economists and Financial Experts as to where they thought the economy was going…. their answers were so vague as to be unfathomable.”

—-

Or as Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital points out, “have you ever heard an economist or macro strategist say ‘I think there’ll be a recession soon (and xx% of my recession predictions have turned out to be right within a year).’?”

—Doug

#67 SoggyShorts on 08.21.21 at 6:01 pm

#143 Stone on 08.21.21 at 7:38 am
#45 SoggyShorts on 08.20.21 at 4:22 pm
About the markets, what’s dragging down VGRO?

Since I have an 80/20 I use it as my benchmark but it’s a full 5% off YTD (not counting dividends)

My boring PF up 16%:
20% HTB.TO
13% XIU
67% VOO/ZSP

Also surprising that Stone’s suggested PF is lagging behind at just over 11% as well.

Is it just the emerging market exposure that I don’t have?
———

Sorry to disappoint (not really) but my portfolio is actually at 17.36% ytd. Oh well.
*****************************
The PF you recommended for me (and then chastised me for not taken said advice) was
VSB 20
ZPR 20
VCN 20
VUN 20
XEF 16
tse:xec 4

That sits around 12%. What your secret(pretend?) unbalanced PF is at isn’t interesting to anyone.

#68 Calgary on 08.21.21 at 6:09 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/23471663/lot-9-blacktail-rd-qualicum-beach-qualicum-north

Is this a good buy?

#69 Dogman01 on 08.21.21 at 6:35 pm

#53 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 4:36 pm

Agreed, Western society went through 300 years of Feudalism, where one families hired muscle would enforce the rules on another family. Serf’s supported it all (pretty much slaves). Likely the only force keeping a modicum of morality was the Christian church. Eventually they decided they need some rules to this game, limiting their own outrages and the outrages of the King upon them.

My understanding of the Taliban is it means “Student”. I read that they originated out of a religious school, Madrassa. The local muscle were holding a roadblock where robbery and often rape mixed with random violence was the norm. The thugs apparently did violence to one of the Madrassa’s students and the leader organized the other students to go beat up the road block thugs. We thugs be thugs, they fled and the Students – Taliban, picked up the weapons mobilized the other Madrassa’s and moved to the next roadblock….. A movement was born! Any law and order is better than none.

#70 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.21.21 at 6:42 pm

KABUL!
I am not a man given to tears, but I am weeping with joy that I am not up to my wet eyes in debt. The stock and real-estate speculators today remind me of the great wave surfers you see in Hawaii who went out on their own terms. When this debt tsunami comes crashing to shore the exits are going to be so clogged they will look like the airport in Kabul. Be prepared, don’t be scared! So be prepared, I wish you all the luck. I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#71 mark on 08.21.21 at 6:53 pm

Here’s one on forecasts for you, Doug https://www.mfg.com.au/blog/one-hit-wonders/

#72 Ustabe on 08.21.21 at 7:25 pm

Afghanistan is the Saudi Arabia of lithium.

China is throwing money at the Taliban as we speak.

Think about that as battery powered this and that proceeds.

If I was Elon I’d be picking up a couple of laundromats as a fall back…its always about money. Always.

Was it the Hunt brothers who tried to corner the silver market? If anyone can corner the lithium market it would be China, eh?

Makes GM’s bag battery tech look even tastier.

#73 MD on 08.21.21 at 8:03 pm

When you have to borrow 4$ to grow the GDP by 1$ everything looks great and fantastic. Let’s see if FED will ever stop their bond buying which has reached 8 trillion now and growing every day.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 8:06 pm

#44 Nonplussed

The Americans are retreating because 20 years is more than enough. How does the saying go? “Don’t throw good money after bad.” They should have been out 18 years ago and let the devil take the hindmost.
———
The point is they should have never gone in the first place.
You’d think they’d learn from Vietnam.
Afghan society has been around and survived invasions for many centuries.
When you see the pictures of intolerable heat and rocky, treeless mountains and desolation, you wonder why.
Pride in your country, culture and history, I guess.

#75 Barb on 08.21.21 at 8:25 pm

#52 KLNR on 08.21.21 at 4:32 pm

“…selling crown land to developers is the last thing we need. wouldn’t do squat for housing affordability either. ”

—————————–
The ALR land is for the most part privately owned. Selling off small parcels to people who want 1 or 2 acres for families with kids n dogs n chickens n goats would prevent housing up in the hillsides…where the fires originate.

It’s BC’s ALR that is keeping land prices high.
There is simply no land available.
But Horgan would never figure that out.

#76 Yukon Elvis on 08.21.21 at 8:46 pm

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh pledged to offer relief from soaring housing prices on Saturday, promising thousands of dollars in subsidies for those struggling to keep pace with payments on rising rental costs.
Singh’s pledge of $5,000 in annual rent subsidies came in downtown Toronto, a riding-rich district where the New Democrats are hoping to win seats away from the Liberals and where the NDP leader says average rents have skyrocketed by more than $4,000 in the past six years. The NDP leader proposed only allowing CMHC loans to be used on affordable housing rather than renoviction projects, adding Canadians shouldn’t have to compete with foreign investors when buying homes.
“I don’t want them to come to Canada. I don’t want them here,” said Singh, reiterating his pledge of a 20 per cent foreign buyers’ tax on the sale of homes to individuals who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents.

https://www.castanet.net/news/Canada/343575/Singh-says-NDP-will-crack-down-on-renovictions-provide-up-to-5K-in-rent-help#343575

This should buy him a few votes. He sounds a bit like Don Cherry. I wonder if thousands will call the CBC to complain and have him removed.

#77 BG on 08.21.21 at 8:47 pm

#1 RowatNation aka Prince Polo on 08.21.21 at 10:23 am
And to trot out another of Garth’s faves: it’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market.
I think I read that Warren Buffet made 95% of his wealth after age 70 and was investing in the stock market since he was a young boy. He certainly has spent lots of time in the market.

#78 IHCTD9 on 08.21.21 at 9:15 pm

Tomorrow is Sunday doggies…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm3aCyRD3Vg

#79 Hampstead Heath on 08.21.21 at 9:20 pm

Agreed, stay invested and use your dividend cash income to flesh out positions as they blossom.

Ex: I bought TRI in the $40’s, and it’s $146 today. I bought on fundamental analysis of a great story. Buy good stocks and stick around. Don’t ‘shotgun’…. research.

Another big winner was NTR bought at $46 and now $76.00. A no brained if you’d had the patience to deep dive into the companies fundamentals.

I could tell you about dozens of others…like CP bought at $89 and hit $500 and a reward of a 5-1 split. OMG, so many great story stocks, so little time. This is just my experience? No, I know lots of of guys who are dead serious about investing and do the work year in year out.

Bottom line, as Ryan says, don’t be afraid of investing, but do it right, educate and research, no substitute. Big money is there. GLTA

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 9:29 pm

@#74 Ponzies Poppy Pals
“Pride in your country, culture and history, I guess.”

++++

That and hundreds of millions in illicit drug money…..

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/profits-poppy-afghanistans-illegal-drug-trade-boon-taliban-2021-08-16/

I’m sure it has something to do with the return of the Taliban.

#81 IHCTD9 on 08.21.21 at 9:48 pm

Ahhh, retirement planing…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__HPfmvaWRw

#82 IHCTD9 on 08.21.21 at 10:14 pm

Anyone wishing to become an American Citizen may apply here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEWGyyLiqY4

#83 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 10:14 pm

#60 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 5:09 pm
@340 Non Plused

I really don’t follow what Elon Musk or Tesla is up to, was only trying to make Sail Away laugh. I failed.

——–

Thanks Jag!

Sorry, playing a charity golf tourney today. They always seem to take the entire day.

#84 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 10:23 pm

#67 SoggyShorts on 08.21.21 at 6:01 pm
#143 Stone on 08.21.21 at 7:38 am

Sorry to disappoint (not really) but my portfolio is actually at 17.36% ytd. Oh well.

———

The PF you recommended for me (and then chastised me for not taken said advice) was
VSB 20
ZPR 20
VCN 20
VUN 20
XEF 16
tse:xec 4

That sits around 12%. What your sectet pretend?) unbalanced PF is at isn’t interesting to anyone.

———

Yep. Stone is claiming something he’s unwilling to share, so can only be presumed as fabricated. Everybody else shares. Only a liar would not share, because it makes no difference.

Am I calling Stone a liar? Um, yes.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 10:31 pm

#75 Barb on 08.21.21 at 8:25 pm
#52 KLNR on 08.21.21 at 4:32 pm

“…selling crown land to developers is the last thing we need. wouldn’t do squat for housing affordability either. ”

—————————–
The ALR land is for the most part privately owned. Selling off small parcels to people who want 1 or 2 acres for families with kids n dogs n chickens n goats would prevent housing up in the hillsides…where the fires originate.

It’s BC’s ALR that is keeping land prices high.
There is simply no land available.
But Horgan would never figure that out.
————–
Hulk Horgan is the Premier of the Province.
He was voted in with a majority.
In the next election he will probably  win in a landslide again.
And what are your credentials?
And BTW, ALR is our future.
California is burning, we can’t rely on them for our veggies and fruits any longer.
And, once agricultural land is developed, and the top soil is removed, it will never be available for  agricultural use again.
Horgan knows that, do you?

#86 Doug Rowat on 08.21.21 at 11:15 pm

#71 mark on 08.21.21 at 6:53 pm
Here’s one on forecasts for you, Doug

—-

Absolutely correct. Wall Streeters are frequently promoted in the media as “analyst who correctly predicted [insert market crisis of your choice].”

But this alone shouldn’t imply credibility. They were likely only one-hit wonders. Credibility only comes from being consistently accurate.

—Doug

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 11:26 pm

#83 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 10:14 pm
#60 the Jaguar on 08.21.21 at 5:09 pm
@340 Non Plused

I really don’t follow what Elon Musk or Tesla is up to, was only trying to make Sail Away laugh. I failed.

——–

Thanks Jag!

Sorry, playing a charity golf tourney today. They always seem to take the entire day.
—————-
Haha,
Charity&Golf.
Your are incapable of performing in either on of those activities.

#88 Dr V on 08.22.21 at 12:00 am

68 Calgary

“Is this a good buy?”

Generally, parcels like this are priced as X for the first acre, Y for the second and then Z per acre after that.

Let’s try

X = $250-300k
Y = $50-100k
Z = $10k

Check other listings for smaller acreages to see if those numbers are close.

a 10gpm well is very good.

The parcel is oddly shaped with a very long highway frontage. I bet the road noise carries.

ALR is very restrictive. Do not count on any further development, or even a second dwelling except possibly a small one for bona-fide farm help. Also check the zoning, including the definitions for allowed uses.

The wetland looks large. Don’t know the mechanism for its protection – development permit? Bylaw? Covenant? Historically, agricultural uses have trumped other regulations, but developer may have negotiated otherwise.

So in the end, will you be able to do what you want to do with it?

#89 Miss Boomer on 08.22.21 at 12:22 am

Green ignorance and Leftist hypocrisy all in one puked up package. Norway built a sovereign Fund of a trillion four from squeezing black gold from it’s northern seas. It now pukes out the hypocrisy of the green carpetbagger . Like Marc Carney said only places like Canada have to shut down an entire industry and kill millions of jobs, while others like Saudi, Senegal, Nigeria and Norway continue to benefit and grow. Green is also the colour of rot.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/norway-s-us-1-4t-wealth-fund-puts-oil-stocks-on-notice-1.1642291

#90 Sail Away on 08.22.21 at 12:24 am

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 11:26 pm
#83 Sail Away on 08.21.21 at 10:

——–

….playing a charity golf tourney today. They always seem to take the entire day.

———

Haha,
Charity&Golf.
Your are incapable of performing in either on of those activities.

——–

Charity is simple. Just give $. Nothing easier.

It’s true my golf game is mediocre at best… but my shooting, both shotgun and rifle, is exceptional.

#91 Nonplused on 08.22.21 at 12:30 am

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.21.21 at 8:06 pm
#44 Nonplussed

The Americans are retreating because 20 years is more than enough. How does the saying go? “Don’t throw good money after bad.” They should have been out 18 years ago and let the devil take the hindmost.
———
The point is they should have never gone in the first place.
You’d think they’d learn from Vietnam.
Afghan society has been around and survived invasions for many centuries.
When you see the pictures of intolerable heat and rocky, treeless mountains and desolation, you wonder why.
Pride in your country, culture and history, I guess.

————————————-

I was sort of going with the idea that they had to go in and get al-Qaeda but they should have left thereafter rather than “nation building”. There was a fair amount of “mission creep”.

#92 westcdn on 08.22.21 at 1:13 am

My father and I had a difficult relationship. It seemed to take forever to win his his respect. Yet end of the day we were similar though I kept my alliance to my mother.

Eventually I won his respect. He told me a story of going to Halifax at the age of 17 to join the navy. because the Church would not grant his request.

He was in a bar when a he was insulted by the leader of a shore detail. He punched him out and was immediately attacked by the detail. There were too many so he ran for the he what he thought was the back door. Instead it led to a flight of stairs that had a locked door at the top. The detail charged at the stairs at him. So he launched himself at them and fortunately landed on his feet. He got away but also stood to fight battles with more even odds. The old guys that witnessed it were amazed (same as my mother).

So how are legends born. I always got the comment in the camp, you are Gerry’s son.

#93 Planetgoofy on 08.22.21 at 1:29 am

The BIG picture is totally unsustainable.
Here’s a little history lesson. THATS why I despise Trudeau. He is F###### clueless.
The real issue is Global Debt and the crap will hit the fan at some point.
The real underlying economic problem is that after decades of running massive deficit budgets in virtually every major country, the world is drowning in more than $200 trillion of debt that can never be repaid. What that means is that we will soon see the first of many Sovereign Debt Defaults.

What happens when a country defaults on its debt?…the answer is not pretty. In 2001 Argentina defaulted on its debt & we saw

the currency (Peso) immediately lost 68% of its value
inflation skyrocketed to almost 40%
unemployment soared to 25%
capital controls were implemented restricting access to one’s own money
But we are not talking about one country defaulting here, we are talking about a global Sovereign Debt Crisis, one that will dwarf any other financial crisis in history, including the Great Depression.

When the equity markets are perceived to be the problem, capital typically flows into government bonds of countries that are perceived to be safe. But what happens when it is government that is the problem? What happens when there is a high risk that government will not be able to meet its debt obligations?

This is precisely what happened at the end of the Great Depression. After the US stock market crashed in 1929, capital dumped US stocks and invested into the perceived safety of European government bonds. But in 1932, starting with Austria, every major European country defaulted on its debt.

The problem was no longer the equity markets, the problem was government’s inability to meet its debt obligations.

Today, every major country in the world has amassed far more debt than can ever be paid off!

I think we are about to see the first Sovereign Debt Default, perhaps in Greece, perhaps in Argentina, Turkey, Poland, Hungary or??
It doesn’t matter where it starts, as once that first domino falls, the rest will follow. It will start slowly, but as the second, then the third country fails, investors will look around and ask “who’s next?”

So for the clueless Trudeau cheer leaders your going to get what you deserve.
Its unavoidable on present course. Take the pain now or blow up big time down the road.
The government continues to make promises that and obligations that cant never be full filled.

#94 Phylis on 08.22.21 at 7:50 am

#93 Planetgoofy on 08.22.21 at 1:29 am
Xxxxxxx
Thks for the lesson. So how is the ability of servicing the debt going?