Curly, Larry & Moe

Days ago we talked about inflation. The official number approaches 4%. In real life, it’s higher. Hasn’t been this bad in 20 years, and we’re just coming out of a virus-infused, germy, weird pandemic recession. What happens when the economy fully reopens, wage pressures mount, interest rates plump, taxes push higher and everybody’s back to work (fully vaccinated with fresh shorts)?

An election poll days ago found ‘affordability’ has emerged as the No.1 ballot box issue. Nope, not Covid. Not mandatory vaccinations. Not the deficit, debt, or spendaholic politicians. Not the environment or Indigenous issues. Not even the economy and jobs. This reflects that the largest mass of voters (about 45%) are house-horny Mills and FOMO-afflicted Zs.

As you (painfully) know, this blog has tracked the pathogenic housing market closely. It’s nuts. Never before have we seen such a frenzied level of nesting nor the appetite people have shown for immersing themselves in debt. Prices are a third higher in a year and in many cases 50% above pre-pandemic levels. Most impactful has been the ballooning of values in the burbs and hinterland cities as urban flight took place. Now countless villages, towns and hamlets have Toronto or Vancouver prices but residents will never have GTA or LM incomes, especially as WFH ends.

Okay, so it’s a mess. Voters are becoming woke. What are the politicians doing in response? Will they make it better or, as usual, worse?

Let’s look.

The governing Libs raised the limits for RRSP withdrawals as tax-free house downpayments. That increased demand and prices rose. They brought in a shared-equity mortgage, then sweetened it. Takeup is limited, but that also goosed demand and pushed values higher. Liberals promised to implement a national 1% tax on under-utilized homes owned by foreigners. But offshore buying accounts for less than 2% of Canadian real estate sales, and already-heavy provincial taxes on non-beavers have done diddly. Prices were up. The latest Liberal budget doles out $5,000 to homeowners to finance green renos. These are the people who just won the real estate lottery, while 75% of those without houses feel they’ll never be able to buy. Not much here to inspire the kids.

The Cons?

Give O’Toole some credit for at least thinking about solutions, even if a few are truly dumb. Banning foreign buyers is something Reddit users would come up with, and just as useful. Beyond that the Conservatives would release federal lands for house construction (good), encourage offices to become residential units (not feasible) and try to bring in closed, fixed-rate home loan with terms of five or seven years (the Canada Interest Act will have to be changed first).

Not so hot is the plan to decrease downpayments from 20% on houses selling for over a million (increasing demand) and slashing the requirement for mortgage stress tests (yup, more demand, higher prices). The party wants to make it easier for self-employed workers, small business people, contractors, part-time and casual workers to buy real estate (uh-huh, more demand). And never will they tax windfall, unearned, pandemic-created buckets of homeowner equity.

“Canada’s Conservatives will never tax Canadians’ capital gains on the sale of their principal residence, something many within the Liberal Party are threatening to do.”

The Dippers?

Not surprisingly, the NDP focuses on ‘affordable housing’ aimed at those who will never afford the average home, with a heavy focus on rental accommodation. The party claims it can build fifty thousand units a year (which has never been done) and will throw money into rental co-ops while waiving federal taxes on builders erecting for-lease homes.

Jagmeet Singh also targets foreign buyers (a 20% extra tax), which will not create a single new home, and vows to bring back 30-year mortgage amortizations – repeating a Harper-era disaster which helped to launch Canada’s current residential bubble.

Well, that’s it. For now. Trudeau says he will have more to offer later in the campaign. Let’s see where that goes.

In the meantime we all know why houses cost what they do. Mortgages are too cheap, so rendering them cheaper with extended terms or amortizations makes little sense. Tax-free residential profits encourage over-investment in a single asset class. That leads to historic levels of household debt, at rates which will only rise. Bad policy. Eviction moratoriums and anti-landlord laws in all provinces have driven down vacancy rates and upped rents. Ridiculous downpayments and widespread 20x leverage have made everybody think they should own a house, resulting in excessive borrowing, inflated demand and 30% annual price hikes. And governments at all levels have taxed real estate relentlessly to the point where fees and development costs now exceed the profit on new homes.

There are ways to make real estate cheaper. But nobody would vote for them. So let’s hope the leaders are lying.

About the picture: “This is my daughter’s dog (my grand dog) named Zoey,” writes Michelle. “She’s not a rescue, but was purchased from a breeder pre-covid. She’s just over 2 now. I’m sending some pics of her in hopes you may wish to use one. Daily blog reader. Love the blog and love dogs so I’m hooked.”

 

152 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 08.20.21 at 2:47 pm

Why Ontario is not re-opening: they are the first province to be working on a Digital ID card. It will not re-open until this is ready. It will allow for precise targeted lockdowns. You go to scan your QR code…and are denied entry. Sorry Comrade you are from a Restricted Zone postal code.

We were trained on this earlier, the news stories of restaurants denying service to the ‘out of towners’.

–Uhh Dolce…the EU “passport” has spaces for 8 jabs.
You like your freedom yes?

https://i.redd.it/seajsg8ogei71.jpg

——————–
Haha Science…

1. City of Toronto to force all employees into getting Injections. EXCEPTING the police and transit unions from this policy. The very people who have very CLOSE contact with customers – every day.
Why? They know that the Unions will strike over it – transit and police unions.
Mayor cannot even hide this fact, burying it with bafflegab.

“Toronto police exempt from current policy
However, there will be exemptions to the new regulations — it currently does not apply to TTC and Toronto police employees.
Tory said this was a “matter of proper, respectful governance”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-vaccine-employees-1.6146152

#2 kat on 08.20.21 at 2:48 pm

Fortunately for all involved, the housing market is out of Trudeau and the other contender’s hands. It will correct like all bubbles, likely starting this fall if not already begun.

#3 Brunett43 on 08.20.21 at 2:54 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong. But don’t bidding wars brought on by slimy r/e agents contribute to house price increases. Personally, I think the practice should be banned. Not to mention agents posting “Coming Soon” signs and buyers go into a frenzie trying to get in before the property is even listed.

#4 Kostas on 08.20.21 at 3:00 pm

They can’t make the houses cheaper because the home owners will lose money.
The only way is to come up with some ways to allow the buyers buy in this crazy market.

Basically saying, the home owners did the right thing to buy when they did (probably didn’t read this blog).
Now they don’t care about inflation so much, especially after their houses went up 25% a year (what’s a 5% inflation when your house grew more than 25%)?
The govt doesn’t want the RE prices to go down.
There are still A LOT of buyers out there waiting to jump the gun.
How is RE a bad choice?

#5 Dave on 08.20.21 at 3:05 pm

“When I think about the biggest, most important economic policy this government, if re-elected, would move forward, you’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy. You’ll understand that I think about families,”…families and monetary policy are far from mutually exclusive Mr. drama teacher. God hope they’re not in power to vote on this at end of year.

#6 None on 08.20.21 at 3:06 pm

“There are ways to make real estate cheaper. But nobody would vote for them. So let’s hope the leaders are lying.”

That’s the rub. There is no political solution – why would 70% of the people vote to have a reduction in their equity. That would be crazy.

Politicians need something / someone to point the finger at – only thing to reduce demand is rising interest rates.

Well, get the money laundering out, That might not be a silver bullet but we should be doing that anyway — right?

#7 Prince Polo on 08.20.21 at 3:07 pm

These parties are obviously pandering to the clueless populace. I am waiting for the first federal leader to suggest $5M direct deposited into each tax-payer’s bank account, for the sole purpose of even more real estate insanity…what a disgrace!

#8 Lee on 08.20.21 at 3:10 pm

One way to lower prices on homes is force builders to build smaller houses or build more townhouses on a given piece of land. You will placate most people by just giving them a roof and some grass. In this way a 400 house housing development might generate 500 to 600 houses. You can also tax capital gain on second properties by requiring 100% of the gain be included in taxable income. Cut the CMHC limit to $500,000 outside the GTA and $750,000 inside the GTA. Keeping a reasonable stress test would be good too. There is no reason to encourage people to invest in real estate aside from a principal residence. If they do buy a second or third property, it should not be so appealing.

#9 X on 08.20.21 at 3:10 pm

For some reason I had though the Cons had been willing to allow 40 yr mortgages again.

Too bad about this 4th wave, on so many levels, but it certainly is reason for pause on any rate hikes, which of course would ease inflation, as well as house affordability, and thus prices.

#10 Alberta Ed on 08.20.21 at 3:12 pm

The cost of regulation is rarely mentioned in the housing quandary: red tape, a maze of (over) regulation and land restrictions add significantly to the cost of housing. Another factor is the medieval construction methods currently used. High quality (as opposed to factory-built junk), custom-designed modular homes that surpass current industry and environmental standards could be part of the solution.

#11 Debt Lappard on 08.20.21 at 3:15 pm

Bank of Canada needs to stop buying up all these bonds.

Surely soon the market will set interest rates for all this debt.

#12 Chalkie on 08.20.21 at 3:15 pm

When interest rates rise and this
bubble explodes, I am glad that I won’t
Be on the receiving end of the amount of
Pain that will be dished out.
Our parents use to warn us to be aware,
There is a sucker born every second somewhere,
You don’t have to look very far, to see where that
Somewhere is at.

#13 vanreal on 08.20.21 at 3:18 pm

Government should stay the hell out of the housing market.

#14 truefacts on 08.20.21 at 3:18 pm

Houses cost too much because of lax monetary policy – too bad our PM Trudeau doesn’t give a crap…

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/tasha-kheiriddin-trudeau-doesnt-think-about-monetary-policy-but-he-should-or-well-all-pay-the-price

#15 When Will They Raise Rates? on 08.20.21 at 3:23 pm

Ross Kay says that the only way to make houses affordable in Canada is to add 1 million new detached homes, and then increase that number yearly to adjust for new immigration.

I agree. Why are we bringing a million new people in the next 3 years, but not proportionally adding to the housing stock?

#16 Mad hatter on 08.20.21 at 3:25 pm

Hello Garth I don’t always agree with what you write in your blog but today you explained a complex issue quite well whatever side one is on. I am a mid 50s gig worker who intersects a lot with the Mills and Gen Z and yes it’s housing housing housing. Logically the Mills and GenZ know they will not have the housing situation of their parents but neither they nor their parents** have excepted that.

#17 "NUTS!" on 08.20.21 at 3:29 pm

There is only one reasonable solution to the housing fiasco, allow the interest rates to vary without intervention. Nothing, absolutely nothing else will correct the current situation. Unfortunately, it is far too late for this journey back to reality to avoid great pain. But there is no other way back to reality. Many will (and should) suffer the consequences.

#18 DC on 08.20.21 at 3:32 pm

“Trudeau says he will have more to offer [on housing] later in the campaign”. LOL, LOL!

#19 Go All In Guy on 08.20.21 at 3:37 pm

The Fed is already talking down it’s scary ‘we might think about tapering this year’ talk, as the market looked like it might fall more than 1%.

In reality, the Fed’s balance sheet added assets this week at a record pace.

The message is clear and consistent:

Buy stocks and RE with both hands.

The only real way to contain the bubble economy is to raise rates and drain liquidity, and they don’t dare.

I’d say we are only in the top of the 6th inning of this bubble.

The last few innings are going to be fast and furious.

Be nimble.

#20 JSS on 08.20.21 at 3:44 pm

“What happens when the economy fully reopens, wage pressures mount…”

I understand that Premier Jason Kenny wants to cut Nurse wages by 3% in Alberta.

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/guest-opinion-3-rollback-for-nurses-should-be-just-the-start

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 3:45 pm

Sooooo essentially none of the political party’s have the cojones to tell voters (Millennials?) that cant have what they want …. “their money for nuthin’ ( historical low % rates) and their houses for free ( lower prices)?”

#22 Linley on 08.20.21 at 3:46 pm

So who the hell are we supposed to vote for when every option is absolute shit?

#23 Kostas on 08.20.21 at 3:47 pm

When it comes to the crazy RE market, I think that the politicians have two choices:
1. Keep the current Monetary Policy, let the inflation run hot, maybe sacrifice the Canadian Dollar, but try not to get into some kind of stagflation, and maybe, get some economic growth.
2. End the current Monetary Policy, let the rates rise and have a lot of home owners default on their obligations. Have an economic recession and pray that somehow the people don’t lose jobs and it doesn’t go into a spiral.
And the most important, get kicked out of the office at the next elections.

What do you think they will choose?

#24 When Will They Raise Raise? on 08.20.21 at 3:47 pm

* My previous post should have said the only thing government can do. Obviously raising rates would take care of the problem, but let’s face it, the BoC isn’t raising rates any time soon.

#25 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 3:48 pm

Too many are folks trying to profit via home ownership in Canada. Way too many folks own more than one home for money making purposes.

Something needs to happen to break this rock solid faith that housing only goes up. Fear needs to rip through the “investment property” population in Canada.

Until then, I guess we’re going to fly this one till the sun melts our wings.

BTW, good title today Mr. T.

#26 ReMax on 08.20.21 at 3:48 pm

#13 vanreal

Government should stay the hell out of the housing market.

———-

ARE YOU CRAZY? WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

By sticking their fingers into housing they can plump the economy! Claim growth! Make it seem like things are happening.

QUESTION:
What would the Canadian Economy look like since 2008 if not for housing? ENDLESS RECESSION! STAGNATION!

Also, oh those indiscriminate TAXES! Land transfer. Property Taxes. SO MUCH REVENUE TO COLLECT!

WIN-WIN! Politicians and central banks can show economic growth and increase taxation revue?
The won’t sign up for that?

Each time prices go up, land transfer tax goes up. Double land transfers? Why not!

Values up – reassessments sent out. PROPERTY TAXES UP!

I said it before, and I’ll say it again, the biggest REAL ESTATE agents are the politicians. The poor Audi driving saps wasting their family Sunday on open houses are just foot soldiers.

#27 Dolce Vita on 08.20.21 at 3:49 pm

Since Cdns treat their home(s) as an investment, then tax them as one.

Capital gain, tax at 50%.

Lower CMHC insurance to max. 50% of the property value. The rest born by the banks in a default. An end to risk free lending by the banks.

Get rid of all Gov mortgage incentives, lending etc.

Let the market correct itself. It will take time but it will correct itself.

Patience a virtue.

Gov meddling a Deadly Sin.

#28 R on 08.20.21 at 3:51 pm

The only currency a politicial understands is votes. Everything else is noise .Selling out a countries future for votes today is no brainer, they wouldn’t even understand the question.

#29 Barb on 08.20.21 at 3:56 pm

Zoey’s gorgeous! Nothing cuter than kids n dogs!

Re pandemic…”we’re coming out of this.”

Not according to President Biden, who just closed the border for another month.
Dammit.

#30 KLNR on 08.20.21 at 3:57 pm

@#2 kat on 08.20.21 at 2:48 pm
Fortunately for all involved, the housing market is out of Trudeau and the other contender’s hands. It will correct like all bubbles, likely starting this fall if not already begun.

out of curiosity what do predict it corrects to?
I don’t think it’ll ‘correct’ at all. maybe flatten out.

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 3:58 pm

Well if the Delta virus cranks up like some experts expect….
An affordable house purchase may be the least of some workers worries…

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/08/20/canada-restaurant-closures-covid-supports/

#32 Nothing Else Matters on 08.20.21 at 3:58 pm

Housing has proved time and again to be the only vehicle that 95% of Canadians will – without question – divert income into. Embrace and stop denying it. Give most the choice between going to a restaurant vs putting $150 towards retirement in 10s of years, and guess which one they’ll choose. It’s a no brainer for government to keep/make housing the most attractive investment vehicle for retirement. TFSAs and RRSPs have a been a failure for all but us Turner disciples.

#33 the Jaguar on 08.20.21 at 3:59 pm

“Jagmeet Singh also targets foreign buyers (a 20% extra tax), which will not create a single new home, and vows to bring back 30-year mortgage amortizations – repeating a Harper-era disaster which helped to launch Canada’s current residential bubble.” GT —-

30 year mortgage amortizations never went away. It was only the ‘insured ones’ that got dropped to 25. And if the average house price in Hogtown is 1.7 mil, then even “if” minimum down payments were dropped to 15%, that would require a 255,000 down payment, plus another 70,000 in closing costs, etc. Who in their right mind, even if they grifted together the 325,000 required, would saddle themselves with a mortgage for 1,445,000.00? Do people think this is play money?
Obviously the Koolaid has not just been drunk, but gulped with the ferocity of those who spot a mirage in the desert. Do they even know what real rate increases due to payments? What happens at the end of their current term when they find out inflation pushed rates up by 2 or 3 points when they were busily engrossed watching nightly re-runs of ‘ The Bachelorette’?

This lack of comprehension doesn’t end with housing. It goes way beyond that. One can observe it with this idiotic view that killing the oil and gas industry is going to solve climate change and all the world’s problems. All vehemently uttered as they madly scroll their I-phones, fly around the planet on airplanes, and eat the produce that wasn’t grown in their own backyards but shipped from a gazillion miles away. It didn’t get here electrically. Almost nothing does.

And they’re all so ungrateful. So entitled. I deserve a house. I had a kid, pay me for it. My employer owes me a living and I should call the shots on whether I return to the office after Covid, etc., etc,. etc.

We’re beginning a new age. Enlighted or not it’s going to take real street smarts and forward thinking to survive and thrive in the new age. Flexibility, adaptability, improvisation and living within ones means will be survival tools. Many don’t even know what this means, never mind having the tool kit. It happening right before our eyes.

#34 KLNR on 08.20.21 at 3:59 pm

@#26 Dolce Vita on 08.20.21 at 3:49 pm
Since Cdns treat their home(s) as an investment, then tax them as one.

Capital gain, tax at 50%.

Lower CMHC insurance to max. 50% of the property value. The rest born by the banks in a default. An end to risk free lending by the banks.

Get rid of all Gov mortgage incentives, lending etc.

Let the market correct itself. It will take time but it will correct itself.

Patience a virtue.

Gov meddling a Deadly Sin.

doing that wouldn’t just kill real estate.

#35 KLNR on 08.20.21 at 4:01 pm

@#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 3:45 pm
Sooooo essentially none of the political party’s have the cojones to tell voters (Millennials?) that cant have what they want …. “their money for nuthin’ ( historical low % rates) and their houses for free ( lower prices)?”

good times watching the conservative party morph into the liberal party and the libs doing their best to be the ndp.

#36 James on 08.20.21 at 4:05 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 3:45 pm

Sooooo essentially none of the political party’s have the cojones to tell voters (Millennials?) that cant have what they want …. “their money for nuthin’ ( historical low % rates) and their houses for free ( lower prices)?”
_____________________________________________
NOOOOOOPE!

My wife and I had to scrape and work to pay off our education and then build on our careers and investments. Then came the home, should I say our first condo. After the condo debacle we knew that living with 500 other people whom were mostly renters was not for us. It took time and hard work to move up. Now all I hear from kids ten years younger than me is were starting with a mid sized home and nothing else. Good luck with that kiddos.

#37 James on 08.20.21 at 4:07 pm

#22 Linley on 08.20.21 at 3:46 pm

So who the hell are we supposed to vote for when every option is absolute shit?
____________________________________________
Vote for the one that is the less shittist of them all.

#38 350 on 08.20.21 at 4:08 pm

That’s the magic number I feel we need of square footage per person of “home” – condo, th or sfd. At that size, we also become more efficient all round – in what we buy, energy consumption, personal space, relationships and more.

In other words, it’s time for Boomers to vacate and downsize!

#39 45north on 08.20.21 at 4:09 pm

There are ways to make real estate cheaper. But nobody would vote for them. So let’s hope the leaders are lying.

The federal government has huge influence over real estate in three ways: control of interest rates, control of CMHC regulations and buying mortgage-backed bonds from the banks. Nobody has argued these three points. The government could make real estate cheaper.

affordable real estate is cheaper real estate

#40 Felix on 08.20.21 at 4:10 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats can be left-pawed or right-pawed (or both).

Domestic cats can sprint at speeds of about 30 mph over short distances.

Bad luck? Black cats are considered good luck in many places around the world.

Pure-white cats with blue eyes are often deaf.

Dorothy is a secret cat lover.

#41 I Identify as Cranky on 08.20.21 at 4:11 pm

This article makes a lot of sense to me:
https://www.movesmartly.com/articles/what-canada-leaders-wont-say-about-housing

Love the blog and the comments.
Belated Happy anniversary Garth Turner.

#42 I'm A Believer on 08.20.21 at 4:12 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 3:45 pm

Exactly!! All wimps. Say and do whatever it takes to get votes. Rinse and repeat.

#43 cuke and tomato picker e on 08.20.21 at 4:17 pm

I am not certain this virus is on the way out our numbers in B.C. are going up and on south Vancouver we had 2 cases on June 30th we now have 164.

#44 Vote PPC on 08.20.21 at 4:18 pm

Split the conservatives vote.

To H E LL with Socks and Baldy

Viva Frei.

Bernier will not win a single seat. Your votes will likely be flushed away. And those you dislike the most will win. Big moral victory. Good thinking. – Garth

#45 SoggyShorts on 08.20.21 at 4:22 pm

About the markets, what’s dragging down VGRO?

Since I have an 80/20 I use it as my benchmark but it’s a full 5% off YTD (not counting dividends)

My boring PF up 16%:
20% HTB.TO
13% XIU
67% VOO/ZSP

Also surprising that Stone’s suggested PF is lagging behind at just over 11% as well.

Is it just the emerging market exposure that I don’t have?

#46 Cenobite on 08.20.21 at 4:23 pm

DELETED

#47 Dolce Vita on 08.20.21 at 4:25 pm

#1 TurnerNation

That Digital Green Pass is FAKE.

I have one and it DOES NOT look like that AT ALL. Not even close especially the “Dose” list. Here is what mine looks like and with some Gov Italia words beside it:

https://i.imgur.com/fUSzQWn.png

Your link is a joke or farcical image.

There are all kinds of version images of the Green Pass in the MSM since they want to sensationalize or call attention to its image such that a IMBECILE can figure out what it’s for:

https://i.imgur.com/RMxOYaj.png
https://i.imgur.com/LuzBfM4.png

In reality near half the screen is a QR code for easy scanning to verify your vax status. Then comes your name, date of birth, a mile long certificate # and a More Details link that provides the validity period (9 months on mine), type/vaccine name brand, date of vaxing and Issuing Country and Authority (Italia Health Ministry).

Not Rocket Science.

And the FOOL that created that image is PRECISELY that not knowing the More Details page contains that information and only for 2 doses. IMBECILLIC to say the least.

AGAIN, Green Pass working fine here. No bellyaching at the height of tourist season in Italia or in France (Greece too). All the foreigners incl. the Germans, Brits, Nude Nordic Sunbathers, Stoned Dutch, etc. that come visit here are having no problems as long as they have fully vaxd evidence.

Much easier for them with a Green Pass.

Even Brexit UK issues it for EU travel called the NHS COVID Pass.

https://covid-status.service.nhsx.nhs.uk/

https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-app/nhs-app-help-and-support/health-records-in-the-nhs-app/about-the-nhs-covid-pass-service/

#48 Dolce Vita on 08.20.21 at 4:37 pm

#33 KLNR

True but tough medicine needed to lower prices if that’s what Cdns want.

The only other event that has brought RE prices way down was in the early 80’s with a peak mortgage rate of 18.25%. That cooled Toronto and Vancouver RE back then, like Polar Ice Cap cool.

My way the banks no longer lend money recklessly knowing they are off the hook in a default, cut CMHC’s Gov top up funding by about $4.5B a year @50% and for owners, painless as it will cost them nothing unless they decide to sell their home.

Also, house flippers, speculators can pay the piper like the rest of us that invest in the markets. It also keeps people out of the market that should not be buying a home in the first place, the highly leveraged.

#49 Quintilian on 08.20.21 at 4:40 pm

It’s a thing of beauty.

None of the parties have a real plan to bring prices down to align with fundamentals.

So prices will continue to escalate until the gas bag blows up.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#50 Pricedoutmillenial on 08.20.21 at 4:46 pm

My vote will be for a Leader who will spend some time reading this blog and makes practical and workable promises rather than just proposing populist schemes that might not help. It’s time someone reins in housing problem which causes the current generation to be trapped and provides less hope for future generations.

#51 ogdoad on 08.20.21 at 4:46 pm

I can see how the mills and z’ds feel like they may be put-out but it began with the parents/grandparents who essentially inherited the FOMO of their times and pissed it along to ensure they raised entitled, highly educated crybabies – thanks Gramps bzw. Thanks white bible thumpers…it’s not new..

This run of capitalism, while being the best thing for (first world) humanity so far, its beginning to rear its ugly head. What is it that makes us feel so inadequate that we will mortgage our life just to appear as on the same level as someone else.(og*) I gave up on that about 10 years ago and feel MUCH better.

Look at some parts of Canada. Housing has become chosen fruit of the God’s. Similar to how BMW’s or Merc’s have become the fruit of the upper-middle class (you’re cool for about 1 oil-change/new roof then…LOSER, like everyone)…you FEEL inadequate when that benchmark (been made a thing by want for possession) has/can not be reached. Its not your fault. HUGS!

So what will our brilliant LEADERS do? Give people more $$$ so Mills can, maybe, afford it? This, is the joke. This prob where entitlement came from. You whiny, spoiled brats! Can’t anybody see benefits in alternatives? Nope ’cause we’re duped, drugged and addicted to alcohol (familiar?) – oh, and prob not as smart as we think. Canada is actually quite behind. From where I stand, it shows.

Environment raises kids – how much do you trust your environment?

Og

#52 Dolce Vita on 08.20.21 at 4:47 pm

Last salvo Garth.

With an election on, holidays, vaxing going into the toilet. Gov Canada has not recvd a single dose in over a week yet there is enough on hand to fully vax +12 yrs old eligible to well over 90%.

Doses recvd
https://i.imgur.com/ZqH3F4Q.png

Doses administered – yesterday at 25% vs. end of June vax rates
https://i.imgur.com/LAltKZ2.png

Well over 80% two dose herd immunity needed for Delta, approaching 90%. Yesterday Canada at 73%.

Projections (-0.7% max error yesterday):

80% Sep 11
85% Sep 26
90% Oct 13

In the past week with such low vax rates, the above dates have slipped by 2 days.

#53 espressobob on 08.20.21 at 4:47 pm

Rhinoceros party all the way!

Oh, right, they’re extinct.

Bummer.

#54 Squire on 08.20.21 at 4:48 pm

#15 When Will They Raise Rates? on 08.20.21 at 3:23 pm
Ross Kay says that the only way to make houses affordable in Canada is to add 1 million new detached homes, and then increase that number yearly to adjust for new immigration.

I agree. Why are we bringing a million new people in the next 3 years, but not proportionally adding to the housing stock?
—————–
Who’s going to pay for all the social services and seniors we have in retirement? Also, who’s going to vote Fiberal if there are no more immigrants ?
Canadians are not having that many children so without immigration the population ages. Look up Japan and see how that’s going.

#55 My Body My Choice on 08.20.21 at 4:48 pm

A Parable:

The NDP and Jag Singh win a majority. In his victory speech, he proclaims: “Poverty and wealth-disparity is Canada’s biggest problem. So serious that anyone with over $1 million in personal assets will be taxed at 95% on all future income.”

Many Canadians freak out including Garth who writes on his blog: “Taxes are fine, but be reasonable. 95% is excessive, extreme.”

People take to the streets, protest, demand the NDP rescind the 95% tax as “draconian”, “communist”, “tyrannical”. Police are called, protesters are arrested, fined and jailed.

Prime Minister Jag gets on all the major news channels “People are dying from poverty, we need to take drastic action. I have no sympathy for the anti-taxers in this country who refuse to believe the evidence from Canada’s top economists, that poverty is killing people.”

CBC, CTV, Global, Globe and Mail, and the Toronto Star, run headline news articles and news casts proclaiming: “The 95% tax is necessary to fight poverty, anti-taxers are ignorant, tobacco-chewing, extreme far-right conspiracy theorists.”

The next day, Garth writes this in his blog: “I’m not anti-tax, in fact, I’ve paid millions in taxes over my lifetime. Taxes are good, but within reason and I think a 95% tax is too extreme.”

But Garth’s website is shutdown. Jag and the NDP proclaim that “anti-taxers are killing people! They’re unhinged crazies that must be isolated!” PM Jag instructs all Big Tech to censor the anti-taxers, shutdown all websites and alternate news channels that discuss the pros and cons of a 95% tax rate.

PM Jag with his majority NDP, pass bill C-1984 to “prohibit the spread of misinformation by anti-taxers, the far-right extremists who don’t trust the consensus-economic view of the necessity of a 95% tax rate …

Garth moves to rural Nova Scotia with his lovely wife, opens a shelter for stray dogs and lives happily ever after.

#56 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 4:50 pm

#8 Lee on 08.20.21 at 3:10 pm

“One way to lower prices on homes is force builders to build smaller houses or build more townhouses on a given piece of land. You will placate most people by just giving them a roof and some grass. In this way a 400 house housing development might generate 500 to 600 houses.”

You don’t think the builders are already doing that? They operate sort of like Toyota. Sure, they sell what Land Cruisers they can, but they pump out the Corollas like nobody’s business.

————————————–

“You can also tax capital gain on second properties by requiring 100% of the gain be included in taxable income.”

Second properties and rentals are already taxed capital gains same as any other asset. Only primary residences escape capital gains taxes. As they should given how much they cost to own.

—————————————

“Cut the CMHC limit to $500,000 outside the GTA and $750,000 inside the GTA. Keeping a reasonable stress test would be good too.”

We can’t really have 2 CHMC limits based on some arbitrary criteria. Why didn’t you include YVR for example? But regardless the CMHC limit probably isn’t the primary driver of the nuttiness, low down payments and ultra low interest rates are.

————————————-

“There is no reason to encourage people to invest in real estate aside from a principal residence. If they do buy a second or third property, it should not be so appealing.”

You can’t get CMHC on a second or third property, primary residences only.

Again we see that most of the “solutions” people are bantering so a lack of understanding of the history of what has already been tried before. We know that more taxes will not solve the deficit, but nobody wants to cut spending. Likewise we know the single most impactful thing that can be done to stop housing speculation is to raise interest rates, but nobody wants to do that either. So we fiddle with the perimeters while letting the inside burn.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 4:54 pm

@#42 Cuke
“I am not certain this virus is on the way out our numbers in B.C. are going up and on south Vancouver we had 2 cases on June 30th we now have 164.”

+++

Yep.
Not a good sign when out virus numbers are climbing …in the Summer…..when flu viruses traditionally disappear….
This Winter should be a “sh!tshow”.

Anti-vaxxer’s will “win” the Darwin Award by the thousands….

#58 Kat on 08.20.21 at 4:58 pm

#29 KLNR on 08.20.21 at 3:57 pm
@#2 kat on 08.20.21 at 2:48 pm
Fortunately for all involved, the housing market is out of Trudeau and the other contender’s hands. It will correct like all bubbles, likely starting this fall if not already begun.

out of curiosity what do predict it corrects to?
I don’t think it’ll ‘correct’ at all. maybe flatten out.

I have no idea the point at which sellers will become exhausted, just as buyers currently are becoming exhausted after many, many years.
I know that real estate has become a trading commodity and will behave in much the same fashion. As we know, corrections generally end up a lot worse than people think they will.
We’re reached max, there is no doubt. Affordability no longer exists so regardless of whether rates rise or fall, people simply can’t buy in this market. They’ve hit a wall and made other arrangements.
No bubble has ever ended in a “flattening”- it’ll end with the loud sound of sucking air and crying bag-holders as always.

#59 TurnerNation on 08.20.21 at 5:00 pm

Starving the tourism economy. Control over our movements. Your status will not save you.

“Europeans Have Been Banned From Entering the US for 525 Days Now. August 19, 2021”
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/europeans-have-been-banned-from-entering-the-us-for-525-days-now

.US expected to extend border closure another 30 days (cbc.ca)

—-
—-CV is set to run until 2025. Permanent rolling economic. Tourists?

.Vietnam: Authorities are implementing a daily 18:00-06:00 curfew in Ho Chi Minh City from July 26.

.Covid: Sydney extends lockdown and puts two million under curfew (bbc.com)

.New Zealand PM Ardern extends nationwide COVID-19 lockdown(reuters.com)

.Moderna Announces Supply Agreement with Canada for Expanded Supply of Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine in 2022, in 2023 and in 2024

———-
………….
Dolce..what I was getting at. “With” or “Of”
Definately, they are sure.

https://deadline.com/2021/08/los-angeles-breakthrough-infections-covid-amount-cases-1234818477/
Hospitalization numbers have been steadily rising for more than a month, but Ferrer noted today that between April and mid-August, roughly 25% of the Covid-positive patients in L.A. were actually hospitalized for a reason other than the coronavirus. Their infection was detected only during a routine admission screening.

She was quick to add, however, “Let’s be clear: They definitely have Covid; we’re not inflating our cases.”

#60 KAC on 08.20.21 at 5:06 pm

Garth: “ encourage offices to become residential units (not feasible)”

Why not? Many former office buildings and other commercial spaces, including churches, have been successfully converted into very nice residential condominiums all over the city.

Such activity may only represent a small improvement in supply but with technology constantly adding to the viability of WFH and with so much office space currently languishing on the market, an increase in such conversions sounds like a good idea.

Check out Calgary, lots of good office buildings in prime locations are sitting empty. In Victoria the old “The Bay” department store has been transformed into dozens of beautiful residential suites in a great location. What’s not to like about such innovations?

#61 Linda on 08.20.21 at 5:06 pm

I get that those who want to purchase RE are hooped due to insane prices vs. actual ability to pay them. I also get that they are clamoring for the government to ‘do something’ to enable them to get the goodie they so deeply desire. However, how many of these house lusty types actually vote? Maybe the tide has changed, but last I heard a lot of the younger crowd eschews actually voting when elections come along.

Also, have to say today’s blog description of part 2 of the Con ‘plan’ sounds very like the conditions presaging the great American housing debacle that occurred in 2008. Just saying.

#62 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 5:07 pm

There is only one way to make housing more affordable; let the developers make more of it. The profit motive will deliver as much housing of the right types in the right locations as is economically possible if the developers are allowed to build.

Instead, we are treating housing sort of like government campgrounds. They don’t build them anymore. Can’t disturb the natural squirrel habitat after all.

We are in an interesting dilemma. Everyone and their dog says housing is “unaffordable”, and “woe be unto the millennials who will never afford a 2500 square foot house on a 50 foot lot in downtown Toronto”. But on the other hand, not one member of the middle class wants to see even $1,000 of their home equity disappear, whether that would be through higher interest rates (which would also affect their disposable income) or through competition from new development and densification of urban areas.

Fact is we don’t really care about the poor. We just hate the rich. The poor don’t make us jealous. Understand that key side of human nature and much of politics becomes easy to understand.

#63 Ray Skunk on 08.20.21 at 5:07 pm

Meanwhile, over the Liberal’s “trusted” CBC, we have a say in what gets asked in the Leaders Debate! (in English, only one debate, of course).

The options (you must choose two) are:

Affordable housing
Child care
Climate change
COVID-19
Gaps between rich and poor
Health care
Immigration
Jobs/work
Racism
Taxes
Truth and Reconciliation
Other

Noted for their absence are Debt, Deficit, Accountability, Transparency…

Sad, yet entirely predictable.

#64 Planetgoofy on 08.20.21 at 5:14 pm

#43 Vote PPC on 08.20.21 at 4:18 pm
Split the conservatives vote.

To H E LL with Socks and Baldy
Viva Frei.

Bernier will not win a single seat. Your votes will likely be flushed away. And those you dislike the most will win. Big moral victory. Good thinking. – Garth
——————————————————
Unfortunately we are going to have to vote strategically here…..or, the most irresponsible PM in history may be at the helm again with the most bizarre fiscal policies one could only imagine.
So Curly it is…..

#65 Quintilian on 08.20.21 at 5:23 pm

Linda
“I also get that they are clamoring for the government to ‘do something’ to enable them to get the goodie they so deeply desire. “

Be fair, it was/is government policy that created the bubble used as a tool for their political avarice.

Shame Shame Shame on you boomers who have knowingly conspired to steel from our future.

#66 Faron on 08.20.21 at 5:24 pm

Apparently Carl Icahn sold a huge raft (20k contracts) of Nov 3900 ES puts. He was probably capitalizing on past few days of elevated volatility, but that also spells a very strong conviction in the future strength of the SPX and relatively low volatility going forward. Guy is no fool.

Those who bought miners yesterday. If the US dollar gets crushed (currently at top of its recent range) you’ll be happy. If it doesn’t and China continues to show weakness, god help you. Oil certainly can’t catch a bid lately. But maybe that has also run its course?

I speculate that we are about at peak Delta fear. Everyone is talking about it, but cases seem to be topping out in the US broadly speaking. If delta fizzles soon, should start seeing better numbers from the US economy. Vaxx boosters will help. Last week was pretty dismal and the market response was mild.

Just my observations. Curious what others think.

#67 winterpeg on 08.20.21 at 5:33 pm

“Cons would…., encourage offices to become residential units (not feasible)” GT
How is this not feasible ..in the context of creative city planning?
More a provincial /local decision anyway as I see it.

It costs more to retrofit than to build. Not feasible. – Garth

#68 Cto on 08.20.21 at 5:41 pm

#25 Remax
You are right on the money.
2 decades ago, 100s thousands factory jobs lost, and by design, politicos ensured housing and immigrating of money would take up the slack. They are never going to let this game end. Canada has nothing left to fill the whole.

#69 KLNR on 08.20.21 at 5:46 pm

@#57 Kat on 08.20.21 at 4:58 pm
#29 KLNR on 08.20.21 at 3:57 pm
@#2 kat on 08.20.21 at 2:48 pm
Fortunately for all involved, the housing market is out of Trudeau and the other contender’s hands. It will correct like all bubbles, likely starting this fall if not already begun.

out of curiosity what do predict it corrects to?
I don’t think it’ll ‘correct’ at all. maybe flatten out.

I have no idea the point at which sellers will become exhausted, just as buyers currently are becoming exhausted after many, many years.
I know that real estate has become a trading commodity and will behave in much the same fashion. As we know, corrections generally end up a lot worse than people think they will.
We’re reached max, there is no doubt. Affordability no longer exists so regardless of whether rates rise or fall, people simply can’t buy in this market. They’ve hit a wall and made other arrangements.
No bubble has ever ended in a “flattening”- it’ll end with the loud sound of sucking air and crying bag-holders as always.

I thought we hit max 10 years ago lol.
even if it crashes 40-50% thats a pittance for someone who bought as recently a 3-4 years ago.
Think I’ll stick with a flattening, maybe folks who bought in the past year get burned a little.

#70 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 08.20.21 at 5:55 pm

The Delta variant is ramping up. We don’t need any further pressure on our healthcare system here.

Just don’t come up here this weekend, all you selfish inbred southern hillbillies!

Stay home in your overpriced GTA shack, get your double shot and then your booster, and wait for 2022.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#71 John on 08.20.21 at 6:14 pm

During WWII Canada built many thousands of small homes which are still looked after and are in demand. Some 38,000 homes were built by 1947 at which time Wartime Housing Ltd morphed into the newly established CMHC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strawberry_box_houses).

This was done during wartime, when Canada’s population was less than a third of what it is now.

With a will, Canada could build many thousands more homes per year. More homes would mean lower (or at least more stable) prices.

#72 Sail Away on 08.20.21 at 6:33 pm

#65 Faron on 08.20.21 at 5:24 pm

Apparently Carl Icahn sold a huge raft (20k contracts) of Nov 3900 ES puts. He was probably capitalizing on past few days of elevated volatility, but that also spells a very strong conviction in the future strength of the SPX and relatively low volatility going forward. Guy is no fool.

——–

Hey, I bought IEP on April 28, 2020 and posted it here for legitimacy.

Up 11% since then, with 15% annual divvie. Slurp.

I’m happy to see you’re following my choices.

#73 binky barnes on 08.20.21 at 6:34 pm

Rest easy folks, the PM PM (Mr. Justin Trudeau) is on this. He never lets Canadians down. I suppose that is why he is the PM PM.

So grab a cool beverage and enjoy the weekend.

BB

#74 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 6:38 pm

#53 Squire on 08.20.21 at 4:48 pm
#15 When Will They Raise Rates? on 08.20.21 at 3:23 pm
Ross Kay says that the only way to make houses affordable in Canada is to add 1 million new detached homes, and then increase that number yearly to adjust for new immigration.

I agree. Why are we bringing a million new people in the next 3 years, but not proportionally adding to the housing stock?
—————–
Who’s going to pay for all the social services and seniors we have in retirement? Also, who’s going to vote Fiberal if there are no more immigrants ?
Canadians are not having that many children so without immigration the population ages. Look up Japan and see how that’s going.

——————————————-

It is a common misconception that immigrants automatically vote liberal and hold socialist ideologies. Many of them came here to escape just that. You don’t find many Chinese or Russian immigrants voting along socialist lines. They know what that does, first hand. It isn’t a theoretical text book university woke thing to them. In Florida, the number of Cuban immigrants voting Democrat is near zero.

The “great replacement” in the US isn’t going as well as the Democrats had expected, and if that is what Trudeau is hoping will happen in Canada he is probably equally mistaken.

As for the 3 million immigrants and the houses to house them, if the government and NIMBY activists would get out of the way the developers and builders will be happy to accommodate them. It’s not like we don’t have the land, lumber, and concrete. And if all goes well and Trudeau does not tax the heck out of the economy, the immigrants will get jobs and pay for their own housing that the developers and builders will be happy to provide.

If I were a builder, I would be relishing at the potential to build all that housing. Might even hire a few folks to help. But wait! I can’t get a development permit because the NIMBY neighbors don’t like gravel trucks, dust, and traffic. Well, all that is ok if they are renovating their own kitchen, but nobody else is allowed to do it.

#75 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 6:41 pm

I still like the idea of a sliding CGT on PR’s. 100% inclusion for the first 5 years or so, then taper it to zero by 10 years. Sure, there’ll be some collateral damage, folks will just have to be a little more careful about buying a house – as opposed to the current “sight-unseen” thing that is going on.

Something also should be done wrt amateur land lords. Way too many of them out there. Maybe a big hairy fee connected to a once residence being turned into a rental by the new owner if not living in. Exemption given for units that were already rental units. A percentage of the value of the home – a big one. Enough to quash the “buy and hold (ie rent it out)” till the market jumps profit motive.

#76 VladTor on 08.20.21 at 6:44 pm

“Canada’s Conservatives will never tax Canadians’ capital gains on the sale of their principal residence, something many within the Liberal Party are threatening to do.”

*************

Fabulous !
Long live the super bubble!
Hurray for speculators!

#77 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 6:45 pm

#66 winterpeg on 08.20.21 at 5:33 pm
“Cons would…., encourage offices to become residential units (not feasible)” GT
How is this not feasible ..in the context of creative city planning?
More a provincial /local decision anyway as I see it.

It costs more to retrofit than to build. Not feasible. – Garth

————————————

Some types of commercial and industrial structures make for good lofts, others do not.

But there are other things that can be done. For instance a church would be a good use of an office floor, and the parking lot is empty on Sunday mornings anyway.

I’ve seen something similar happening to empty warehouse buildings around here. Soccer clubs are leasing them on the cheap, throwing down some artificial turf, and vola! Indoor training center. Not great for the landlords but I am sure it is better than leaving it vacant.

#78 Willem on 08.20.21 at 6:48 pm

“There are ways to make real estate cheaper. But nobody would vote for them. So let’s hope the leaders are lying.”
That has to be the most priceless and true thought on our political stae of affairs.
Post election the rubber will hit the pavement and parliament will go back to being irrelevant and incompetent at accomplishing anything useful other than lip service!!
I’m ashamed that the government of this rich country with more fresh water than anywhere in the world cannot even provide safe drinking water to the indigenous people. This is a disgrace bordering on criminal. Maybe we should let the Chinese come in to perform their magic infrastructure building skills! I never thought I would say this!!
Our first nation’s could become a part of the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative!

#79 VladTor on 08.20.21 at 6:51 pm

…Give O’Toole some credit for at least thinking about solutions, even if a few are truly dumb.

********

Garth, he’s thinking…thinking… thinking. Hard job!

I have solutions! Can you give him my E-mail and I’m ready to discuss solutions for housing. Guarantee – in 2 years problem will disappeared. He just need to follow exactly to mine recommendations. No obligation!

#80 Sail Away on 08.20.21 at 6:54 pm

#71 Sail Away on 08.20.21 at 6:33 pm
#65 Faron on 08.20.21 at 5:24 pm

F, here’s an update on those April 28, 2020 purchases you ridiculed at the time:

IEP: +11%
GEO: -33%
BAC: +68%
TSLA: +407%

Average: 113.5%
Average with divvies: 123%

Not a bad 16 month run. Not bad at all.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 6:58 pm

I don’t see anyone pledging any serious money for public transport.
Big mistake.
We will pay the price in the future.
Have to get the carbon footprint under control.
And no, EVs not gonna do it.
And can’t wait for China.

#82 Shirl Clarts on 08.20.21 at 7:01 pm

#66 winterpeg on 08.20.21 at 5:33 pm
“Cons would…., encourage offices to become residential units (not feasible)” GT
How is this not feasible ..in the context of creative city planning?
More a provincial /local decision anyway as I see it.

It costs more to retrofit than to build. Not feasible. – Garth

^^^^^^^
Actually Winterpeg, you’ve already had some success here. The City of Winnipeg’s popular Exchange District as been rezoning and retrofitting empty warehouses into lofts for the last 30 years now.

Go Winnipeg!
https://www.sunrex.ca/warehouse1885

#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 7:06 pm

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 4:54 pm
@#42 Cuke
“I am not certain this virus is on the way out our numbers in B.C. are going up and on south Vancouver we had 2 cases on June 30th we now have 164.”

+++

Yep.
Not a good sign when out virus numbers are climbing …in the Summer…..when flu viruses traditionally disappear….
This Winter should be a “sh!tshow”.

Anti-vaxxer’s will “win” the Darwin Award by the thousands….
——————-
Yep.
Anti-maskers, too.
Masks down. Infections up.
Simple math.

#84 Kurt on 08.20.21 at 7:09 pm

Garth, affordability will not be resolved because Canadians don’t want it resolved. Those who already own want ever-escalating house prices, and they comprise a majority. By way of example, one cause you missed is zoning regulations. Zoning regulations always favor increasing the property values of the incumbents, are created via political rather than technical process. Another is net positive population growth, which in a modern economy involves growth in cities, where a driving factor in price is proximity to the core. Increase the number of people in the city, and even if you add units to the edge, prices in the core still go up. We maintain net positive population growth through immigration, the levels of which are set, once again, through a political process, not a technical process. Yes, all of the factors you mention contribute to the problem, but the biggest single factor is that there are many Canadians who want it this way, and are willing to use political power to cripple our economy to make it so.

#85 I’m stupid on 08.20.21 at 7:13 pm

I’m stupid but I’m smart enough to know that the people making the rules own homes. I’m also smart enough to know that they won’t pass laws that will result in personal loses.

I’m no economist but I know that if you allow the lenders to shoulder all the risks associated with lending that the interest rates won’t be below inflation.

#86 JP on 08.20.21 at 7:23 pm

#31 Nothing Else Matters on 08.20.21 at 3:58 pm
TFSAs and RRSPs have a been a failure for all but us Turner disciples.
—————————————
I think this is quite an insightful comment. Anecdotally, I know many people who have at some point tried investing in stocks/bonds but got burned. They were not Turner educated and so made many silly mistakes. These same people made “investments” in housing and have done comparably much better financially. So, to them, property is the only “safe” place to put their money.

If enough Canadians have a similar disposition, then house price gains are almost a self fulfilling prophecy – there are just too many “greater fools” to keep the party going, for a long long time.

#87 Chris L. on 08.20.21 at 7:28 pm

Let free enterprise build more houses. Is it that hard?

Get. Out. Of. The. Way.

Open crown land is a good start. From there, allow builders to build what they want to build. More apartment buildings.

Canada is so silly they think they can make things more affordable by making them more expensive.

Solve the supply side already.

#88 Sail Away on 08.20.21 at 7:29 pm

#61 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 5:07 pm

Fact is we don’t really care about the poor. We just hate the rich. The poor don’t make us jealous. Understand that key side of human nature and much of politics becomes easy to understand.

———

Yep, the old green-headed monster can turn people into ogres. It is far more useful to befriend, learn from and emulate the rich than hate them, though.

#89 Trojan House on 08.20.21 at 7:35 pm

“Their infection was detected only during a routine admission screening.”

Lol! Come in for a broken leg and presto-chango you now have the coronavirus! Didn’t know you were sick did ya?

#90 VladTor on 08.20.21 at 7:43 pm

Garth,
I just forgot to mention in my previous post, that most of my solutions about fixing housing problems was born…. during reading your blog (this is no compliment – just fact).
So, be sure, I’m honest person and will share my success with you. 50/50 – OK?

#91 Justin S on 08.20.21 at 7:47 pm

Not a dog person by any means, but that’s a pretty freaking cute pic.

#92 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 7:56 pm

Another thing to consider is the insanity some Canucks will endure to make a life in Canada, and to own a house. Stuff born Canadians would never do is done, and I suspect on the regular.

Ms. IH works with an immigrant dude, he “lives” in the west end of the gta – 3 hours away in today’s 401 traffic. Works here and camps out 5 days, drives home Friday night, drives back Sunday night. Less than 2 days per week spent with family. Been doing this for 10 years. Don’t ask why, I’m beyond understanding how this can be. It’s a decent job, but there must be equal in the gta.

Out in the middle of a defunct cornfield not too far from the bunker complex there is a brand new subdivision with decent houses in the 6-700k range. 99% of the folks living there are from the gta. Listing agent is from the gta. Their families are parked here, while just about all of them go off to work in the gta every week. What kind of folks would do this? Folks who are absolutely obsessed with owning a home, who would evidently endure any amount of suffering to own a home.

Turning housing prices around in Canada at this point will take something life destroying. It’s not going to come from government by the looks of it.

#93 Faron on 08.20.21 at 8:01 pm

#79 Sail Away on 08.20.21 at 6:54 pm
#71 Sail Away on 08.20.21 at 6:33 pm
#65 Faron on 08.20.21 at 5:24 pm

Faron: Tonight we will be discussing macro trends and their effects on equity markets and forex.

Sail: I stonks!!! Look, a squirrel!

Faron: Very good Sail Away. Now finish your juice, take your vivance and go play with your legos. Don’t pull the dogs tail.

#94 Russ on 08.20.21 at 8:48 pm

Faron on 08.20.21 at 8:01 pm

#…
Faron: Very good Sail Away. Now finish your juice, take your vivance and go play with your legos. Don’t pull the dogs tail.

===================

Hey Far’n.

Let’s work on your grammar a bit. Please spot the differences.

“Very good Sail Away. Now finish your juice, take your vivace and go play with your Lego. Don’t pull the dog’s tail.”

Cheers, R

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 9:01 pm

#92 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 7:56 pm
Another thing to consider is the insanity some Canucks will endure to make a life in Canada, and to own a house. Stuff born Canadians would never do is done, and I suspect on the regular.
—————-
You’re right.
In Asia, where most of our immigrants are coming from, if you are male and don’t own RE, you’ll never find a partner.
Renters are considered losers.

#96 Faron on 08.20.21 at 9:14 pm

#94 Russ on 08.20.21 at 8:48 pm

Gowld star Russ. 2nd most insufferable twat here.

#97 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 9:15 pm

#92 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 7:56 pm

“Ms. IH works with an immigrant dude, he “lives” in the west end of the gta – 3 hours away in today’s 401 traffic. Works here and camps out 5 days, drives home Friday night, drives back Sunday night. Less than 2 days per week spent with family. Been doing this for 10 years. Don’t ask why, I’m beyond understanding how this can be. It’s a decent job, but there must be equal in the gta.

Out in the middle of a defunct cornfield not too far from the bunker complex there is a brand new subdivision with decent houses in the 6-700k range. 99% of the folks living there are from the gta. Listing agent is from the gta. Their families are parked here, while just about all of them go off to work in the gta every week. What kind of folks would do this? Folks who are absolutely obsessed with owning a home, who would evidently endure any amount of suffering to own a home.”

————————————–

You Torontonians are a bunch of softies. Here in Alberta we have all kinds of rig-hands and oil sands workers who spend 2 weeks at a time living in camp. At the hey day West Jet flew from the Maritimes to Fort Mac just to bring the camp workers in and out from there. My neighbor is a family doctor and her practice is 3 hours away so she has an apartment there for the week. Her husband spends a lot of time in Halifax. Many of the consulting jobs around here specify “75% travel”, meaning you will be heck and gone 3 out of 4 weeks. My dad spent the first years of my life driving, driving I say, back and forth to Fort Mac from Calgary. In the snow. Uphill both ways. I myself spent the better part of 3 years working in the states because there wasn’t work of that caliber around here.

Work and family within walking distance is nice if you can get it, but around here you sound soft if you talk about it as a “right”.

#98 Oakville Rocks! on 08.20.21 at 9:16 pm

NONPLUSED I like you and think you are sincere in your posts. Which is why it amazes me that you write some the most obviously dumb things.

Usually your comments follow the old writing maxim “I didn’t have time to write you a short letter so I wrote you a long one”. Too often though your comments seem to follow the “I will just write things off the top of my head without thinking if they are accurate or even make sense”

For example: #73 “You don’t find many Chinese or Russian immigrants voting along socialist lines. They know what that does, first hand. It isn’t a theoretical text book university woke thing to them. In Florida, the number of Cuban immigrants voting Democrat is near zero.”
It takes only a minute to google the results of the 2020 election to find out that Cubans in Florida voted approx. 57% for Trump and 42% for Biden. As an engineer I am sure you recognize that 42 is not “near zero” and in fact is more accurately nearly even. In fact only 8% of Cuban voters would have to split from Trump to Biden for them to be equal, so hardly near zero

Also you do a disservice to immigrants from China & Russia by suggesting that they cannot recognize the difference between Russia’s Socialist Kleptocracy under Putin and China’s Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (ie: corrupt local party officials) under Xi and the socialism suggested by the likes of Jagmeet Singh.

Or this nugget #61 “Fact is we don’t really care about the poor. We just hate the rich. The poor don’t make us jealous.”
Where is that coming from? No doubt jealousy can be a factor for many but it is hardly true that WE don’t care about the poor. The number 1 charity in Canada is World Vision and #2 is the Salvation Army. Most of us have learned to deal with “jealousy” and do not let it influence our lives. Your comment seems especially foolish in light of yesterday’s post and Garth’s constant effort to remind people that there is more to life than the accumulation of material riches (house, stock portfolios).

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 9:21 pm

#87 Chris L. on 08.20.21 at 7:28 pm
Let free enterprise build more houses. Is it that hard?

Get. Out. Of. The. Way.

Open crown land is a good start. From there, allow builders to build what they want to build. More apartment buildings.

Canada is so silly they think they can make things more affordable by making them more expensive.

Solve the supply side already.
—————
There’s no supply issue.
Especially in the Condo market.
Plenty of empty condos.
Just tax them, and thus incentivize the owners to release the units into the market.

#100 VladTor on 08.20.21 at 9:24 pm

…Bernier will not win a single seat. Your votes will likely be flushed away.

****************

Garth, will see.

You may be surprised after 20 September.

Yesterday I talk with my daughter (she like me was always Con’s supporter) and she told me that at least 3 Con’s supporter in past, whom she knew personally, going to switch voting for PPC. People angry with Con’s politician b’s they in reality do nothing and hard now to distinguish Con’s from Lib’s. Looks like both this parties close yes on real problems which bother Canadians.

Not a single seat. – Garth

#101 Wrk.dover on 08.20.21 at 9:31 pm

#71 John on 08.20.21 at 6:14 pm
During WWII Canada built many thousands of small homes which are still looked after and are in demand. Some 38,000 homes were built by 1947 at which time Wartime Housing Ltd morphed into the newly established CMHC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strawberry_box_houses).

________________________________________

Too small to meet codes now.

100’s of thousands of smaller multi’s in GTA, but probably no new 1000 sq ft detached in many decades.

Sprawl problem is the reason, but what about in smaller cities and towns?

The main reason I settled so far from reality was so I could build our undersized home with it’s new car equivalent price tag. Then or now.

In it, life supports itself on air.

Also: I need a me sized version of the chair the photo kid is in! I see a recline mechanism there too.

#102 mike from mtl on 08.20.21 at 9:42 pm

#77 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 6:45 pm

Some types of commercial and industrial structures make for good lofts, others do not.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////

That’s right, I’ve lived in a “hard loft” 19th C before, but the vast majority do not. Best candidates are <4 Storeys, wood core. Wood is forgiving and flexible but does not scale well. Commercial leases, zoning, and above all cost are completely out of the range of any "conversion".

With Concrete, you've got to be super aware about weakening with holes into for wet works. Office towers and high-rise condos are not some Mickey Mouse close enough affair. Commercial high-rises tend of have thicker decks, fewer pillars but nearly zero weak holes because they're designed to run chases close to centre/elevators. Then there's HVAC which was not designed to be zoned to small units, Elevators, glass envelope and so on.

Most of all you've got the city who is probably not so keen on chasing around five bucks of taxes for their bread and butter. Better chase say RBC or a REIT for real money than waste their time with crappy little 'owners'.

#103 Doug t on 08.20.21 at 9:42 pm

Well eventually none of this will matter at all – once the “You will own nothing and be happy” elites have their way and the world lives a less consumption/capitalist model of life you won’t need to constantly be worrying about the housing market, stock market, bonds, etf’s, gold, investing etc – the proposed date for this is 2030 and well let’s just say…… live it up now cause the world you new ain’t gonna be around much longer

#104 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 9:50 pm

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 9:01 pm
#92 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 7:56 pm
Another thing to consider is the insanity some Canucks will endure to make a life in Canada, and to own a house. Stuff born Canadians would never do is done, and I suspect on the regular.
—————-
You’re right.
In Asia, where most of our immigrants are coming from, if you are male and don’t own RE, you’ll never find a partner.
Renters are considered losers.
———

These dudes might want to start dating Western Women…

I have to visit the gta a few times per year for work. The drive is a total joke. Utterly jammed up on a work day 75+ km out. It’s so bad, that leaving late (instead of early) is the way to approach it these days, you’ll arrive pretty close the same. In the 80’s, you could just cruise right in pretty much any time – no parking lots. The 401 is a complete joke anywhere near the gta. Getting pretty dangerous too.

These dudes must be totally in desperation mode. There is absolutely no way I would live like that for the sake of a house, or a wife…

#105 The Woosh on 08.20.21 at 9:53 pm

Now countless villages, towns and hamlets have Toronto or Vancouver prices but residents will never have GTA or LM incomes, especially as WFH ends.

————————————

Let’s get real. Most residents in the GTA or LM don’t have the incomes required to reside in the GTA or LM. The astounding increase in the value of GSY.TO stock (subprime lender) proves my point.

#106 Bubblicious on 08.20.21 at 9:54 pm

Some simple logic:

A) ALL bubbles eventually ‘pop’ (NO exceptions).

B) Canadian RE is a bubble, by any historical standard.

==>>

C) Inescapable Conclusion: Canadian RE WILL bust.

Unknown: when

#107 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.20.21 at 9:56 pm

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 6:58 pm
I don’t see anyone pledging any serious money for public transport.
Big mistake.
We will pay the price in the future.
Have to get the carbon footprint under control.
And no, EVs not gonna do it.
And can’t wait for China

—-

I’m glad you’re not my accountant… At 1.6% of global emissions we are not the issue. We already have high environmental standards.. plus, now we pay a carbon tax for some reason… So it’s all good right?

https://fb.watch/7uMNQmMMBB/

#108 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 9:59 pm

#71 John on 08.20.21 at 6:14 pm
During WWII Canada built many thousands of small homes which are still looked after and are in demand. Some 38,000 homes were built by 1947 at which time Wartime Housing Ltd morphed into the newly established CMHC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strawberry_box_houses).

This was done during wartime, when Canada’s population was less than a third of what it is now.

With a will, Canada could build many thousands more homes per year. More homes would mean lower (or at least more stable) prices.

————————————-

I owned and lived in one of those war houses for a while. The original structure was 700 square feet and built entirely out of dimension lumber, with the sheathing being 1×4 lap board and nails and the siding wood also. Even the floor was 1/4 inch lapboard with oak over top (cheap back then). Insulation was R5 “rock glass”. There was a bit of Zonolite in the attic but not enough to cover the 2×4’s. Of course you can’t take it out of there because of the asbestos, so most people just spray cellulite right over. There is no way that house as it was built would pass modern building codes, not even close. It had a nice lot though. Over time it got jacked up and a basement put under it and then later an addition bringing the main floor to 900 square feet, but the house remained forever a patchwork of various eras.

So ya, they did build 38,000 homes in that era. But they would not be allowed to build such a piece of clapboard today, and nobody would want it because a condo is bigger.

#109 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.20.21 at 10:04 pm

Ugh.. that’s embarrassing.. that’s not the link I meant to add… Sorry, stupid text from a buddy I was making fun of and was left in my clipboard…

Here’s the real one..

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-emissions/sources-sinks-executive-summary-2021.html

#110 Faron on 08.20.21 at 10:11 pm

#106 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.20.21 at 9:56 pm

Yes. If you are only responsible for 1.6 percent of the murders, why should anyone even bother arresting you? Amirite?

#111 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 10:16 pm

Zoey is 100% smelling the baby in today’s pic. Those of you who have had kids already know that babies smell great, amirite?

Hopefully, I get grandkids so I can smell a baby again. Don’t think other random parents will let me smell their kids. My youngest sibling probably had her last one too, so no more infant nephews or nieces left for me to sniff.

Ok, I’ve had a lot of Merlot tonight, but babies do smell awesome.

#112 Doug in London on 08.20.21 at 10:23 pm

I give some credit to the Dippers. Why? They actually realize, as Garth said, that nobody (except anyone who’s actually paying attention) would vote for a party that would do what needs to be done to bring prices back to reality. Instead, they’re concentrating on the rental market because in many towns and cities it’s the only option that makes any sense. If you’re really anxious and looking to buy, what’s the market like in Nipigon these days?

#113 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 10:25 pm

#100 VladTor on 08.20.21 at 9:24 pm
…Bernier will not win a single seat. Your votes will likely be flushed away.

****************

Garth, will see.

You may be surprised after 20 September.

Yesterday I talk with my daughter (she like me was always Con’s supporter) and she told me that at least 3 Con’s supporter in past, whom she knew personally, going to switch voting for PPC. People angry with Con’s politician b’s they in reality do nothing and hard now to distinguish Con’s from Lib’s. Looks like both this parties close yes on real problems which bother Canadians.

Not a single seat. – Garth
— —

Vlad, be like me. Vote Con, and hope everything they said during the campaign was a lie.

Hey, that’s what Liberal voters got the last two times…

#114 Russ on 08.20.21 at 10:26 pm

Faron on 08.20.21 at 9:14 pm

#94 Russ on 08.20.21 at 8:48 pm

Gowld star Russ. 2nd most insufferable twat here.
=======================

Yup.

In the work of Doctors & Engineers the details matter. Lives might depend upon it.

In the work of Academics, it matters not.

Thanks for helping to point this out.

Cheers, R

#115 Drinking on 08.20.21 at 10:27 pm

Missed your post yesterday until now; you know those silly excuses like working for a living does get in the way once in awhile!

I do congratulate Dorothy and yourself on your milestone; how she put up with you with you and all these years especially the last six months is truly exceptional. I will leave it at that; sleep on it! Smoking Man is rolling in his grave, you sold out!!!

Anything but T2 and the so call NDP leader looking for for the golden handshake will perhaps, and that is a big effing perhaps will steer the country into somewhat a better future! Like most of us, we no longer give a shit and will live our lives the way we see it!!

#116 baloney Sandwitch on 08.20.21 at 10:30 pm

#22 Linley
So who the hell are we supposed to vote for when every option is absolute shit?
—————————————
Whose shit smells the sweetest? So far the cons are leading even though the local riding candidate the cons have chosen is a turd. An RE agent, no less ..

#117 PBrasseur on 08.20.21 at 10:35 pm

Easy way to make housing more affordable: Stop socializing credit risk!

Of course after that you won’t be able to get a loan but hey, life is supposed to be difficult…

#118 Russ on 08.20.21 at 10:40 pm

ImGonnaBeSick on 08.20.21 at 9:56 pm

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 6:58 pm
I don’t see anyone pledging any serious money for public transport.
Big mistake.
We will pay the price in the future.
Have to get the carbon footprint under control.
And no, EVs not gonna do it.
And can’t wait for China

—-

I’m glad you’re not my accountant… At 1.6% of global emissions we are not the issue. We already have high environmental standards.. plus, now we pay a carbon tax for some reason… So it’s all good right?

https://fb.watch/7uMNQmMMBB/

————————————-

Hey Imma,

The 1.6% GHG Canadian emission stat is very timely.

I was recently engaged in a conversation with a carbon tax/let’s close Alberta supporter.

I recalled that a few years ago Canada’s GHG worldwide contribution was 1.8% and does it make sense to devastate the Canadian economy and impoverish our youth to reduce from that amount?
We did not reach a consensus but it appears that we achieved success in both, reducing our worldwide GHG contribution and impoverishing our youth, with Justin Trudeau’s influence.

A legacy noted.

Also note, Virginia coal continues to be exported from Pt. Robert’s, Canada, because it is illegal to ship it to China from a USa port.

Cheers, R

#119 Russ on 08.20.21 at 10:43 pm

Errata. USa should be USA

#120 Michael in-north-york on 08.20.21 at 10:43 pm

The inbred cottamaniac is active lately. Occupied Petri dish #70. Is that kind of pathogen always getting more active in the second half of august?

#121 Welcome Matt! on 08.20.21 at 10:48 pm

#3 Brunett43 on 08.20.21 at 2:54 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong. But don’t bidding wars brought on by slimy r/e agents contribute to house price increases. Personally, I think the practice should be banned. Not to mention agents posting “Coming Soon” signs and buyers go into a frenzie trying to get in before the property is even listed.
___________________________________________________________

OK, correcting you now. Absolutely wrong… only stupid people buying houses at exhorbitant prices make house prices increase. Nobody is forcing you to buy anything and buying a property is not your only choice. Nothing to do with sellers; only the buyers. The price is inversely proportionate to the stupidity of the buyer.

Like any other market, the price is determined by what customers are willing to pay. At some point, when more buyers are priced out of the market than there are sellers, equilibrium will be established.

#122 Michael in-north-york on 08.20.21 at 10:50 pm

Noone is talking about the elephant in the room: municipal zoning bylaws that favor single-family homes and block the highrise construction.

Sure, the house ownership frenzy contributes to the problem. When people buy a house, they often try to buy more space than they need right now. Some take into account their future children, some just see it as an investment. People who rent are more likely to settle for a smaller place.

But even if the public sentiment changed, with fewer people buying and more people renting – the renters still have to live somewhere. The shortage of the actual space in big cities is at least as important as the low mortgage rates or lenient stress tests.

#123 Risk Off on 08.20.21 at 10:53 pm

Bad news coming out of Israel. The “what if” scenario is now being activated.

Everything getting pushed to January. Then come January everything will get pushed out again. I can see it where all of this is going. What was supposed to happen is not happening. And nobody has any answers.

BC is doubling every 7 days. The Interior is now only accounting for 40% of all BC cases now (which is down) and coincides with travel / migration of residents in the province.

This isn’t supposed to be happening with the high vax rates in the Lower Mainland and the current modelling by UBC just released shows a bigger wave by October that makes all other waves look small – by far.

This is the story everywhere.

So, it is pretty obvious where the economy is headed.

China is already looking like a bear market to me.

#124 Rick Dickulus on 08.20.21 at 10:54 pm

#4 Kostas on 08.20.21 at 3:00 pm

How is RE a bad choice?

____________________

It’s not …. unless you want to buy it.

#125 VladTor on 08.20.21 at 10:55 pm

….Not a single seat. – Garth

*************
OK.

If they take at least one seat, are you ready to shave off your beard?

You can leave the mustache!

#126 fishman on 08.20.21 at 10:56 pm

City hall changing zoning from commercial to residential? I’m kind of up on that because I was one of the last to get a commercial (office) zoning changed to residential (artist studio) in Vancouver. Yes, the Fishman is a naive, primitive, minimalist, folk artist. Thats my story & I’m sticking with it. But on a more serious note, I made so much money instantly on that deal I tried for a repeat. Vancouver City froze conversions while they commissioned a study on the pros & cons. The study found that commercial to residential zoning cost the city huge money. More people doesn’t even out the 5x mill rate commercial pays over residential. But the turd in the butter barrel was the increased infrastructure costs.Transportation,schools,rec centres, sewage, water, road access, police, on & on. Then there’s the whole idea of a balanced city with enough commercial to support a population’s living necessities. Plus space for locals to go to work. I’m with the Gartho here. Isn’t going to happen. That ship has sailed.

#127 Michael in-north-york on 08.20.21 at 11:01 pm

#98 Oakville Rocks! on 08.20.21 at 9:16 pm

“… the difference between Russia’s Socialist Kleptocracy under Putin and China’s Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (ie: corrupt local party officials) under Xi and the socialism suggested by the likes of Jagmeet Singh.”

Be assured that in every country that built a socialist system, the initially “suggested” version was very similar to “socialism suggested by the likes of Jagmeet Singh”.

What was actually created is entirely different matter. A rigid hierarchical system, with more inequality than in the modern developed free-market countries.

And btw that’s not Jagmeet’s fault; he might be entirely sincere. Social systems evolve according to their own laws, and tend not to follow anyone’s blueprints.

#128 We're all defunct now! on 08.20.21 at 11:01 pm

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.20.21 at 3:45 pm

Sooooo essentially none of the political party’s have the cojones to tell voters (Millennials?) that cant have what they want …. “their money for nuthin’ ( historical low % rates) and their houses for free ( lower prices)?”

____________________________________________

They wouldn’t have to if their parents had done their job!

#129 IHCTD9 on 08.20.21 at 11:10 pm

#108 Nonplused on 08.20.21 at 9:59 pm

I owned and lived in one of those war houses for a while. The original structure was 700 square feet and built entirely out of dimension lumber, with the sheathing being 1×4 lap board and nails and the siding wood also. Even the floor was 1/4 inch lapboard with oak over top (cheap back then). Insulation was R5 “rock glass”. There was a bit of Zonolite in the attic but not enough to cover the 2×4’s. Of course you can’t take it out of there because of the asbestos, so most people just spray cellulite right over. There is no way that house as it was built would pass modern building codes, not even close. It had a nice lot though. Over time it got jacked up and a basement put under it and then later an addition bringing the main floor to 900 square feet, but the house remained forever a patchwork of various eras.

So ya, they did build 38,000 homes in that era. But they would not be allowed to build such a piece of clapboard today, and nobody would want it because a condo is bigger.
—— ——

Probably efficiency and safety would be the major infraction to modern code. Heating oil was cheap too back then, and no one freaking out over c02 emissions either.

Beyond that, probably not a fatal amount wrong with ‘em. Local town here is loaded with these homes. A totally renovated one lists for 300k right now. 10 years ago, 60k would’ve got you an as-is one. They seem pretty solid other than some ridge sag.

My house turned 151 this year. Not up to modern code, not even close – but built better structurally imho. No engineering, so everything is way better than it needs to be. Hell, it’s still standing tall at almost the same age as Canada itself. No houses are built like this anymore – it’s a bunker. Go back in time, and structural design and materials therein get better imho. Many homes in my little village are 120+ years old, and still in great shape. Especially the brick/steel roof ones.

I would not be surprised if in 20 years, small 1k SF or less homes might be in demand. Gen X may not care about a big fancy house, Mils almost surely won’t. Energy and taxes will be very expensive by then the way it’s going. I think attitudes will change by then too – simple, efficient, low maintenance will likely trump baller McMansions somewhere down the line. Not too far down either. Those are my thoughts for when I retire – easy and efficient, that pretty much means small.

#130 westcdn on 08.20.21 at 11:12 pm

The 3 Stooges (they headlined the Stampede about 1964) – I grew up with them at the local theater run by a great family. They lived above the confectionary and treated us kids well for the Saturday matinee. 25 Cents and I saw a lot of John Wayne and Jim Steward. Both men have my respect. I listen to the “Old Radio Show” and I will never forget James as the Xmas cowboy.

They ran a slew of movies for my mind – I even won a lucky seat draw – an air powered jumping spider.

#131 John Doe on 08.20.21 at 11:13 pm

DELETED

#132 Faron on 08.20.21 at 11:26 pm

#119 Russ on 08.20.21 at 10:43 pm

Errata. USa should be USA

___

Karma’s a beeotch Dr. Russ. LOL.

It’s okay if you don’t spell everything correctly. You prove time and again that you don’t know what the hell you are talking about regardless of fidelity to any dictionary.

There’s far more to learn from a wise person who makes spelling mistakes than from a rote learned, anal retentive stickler.

And thanks to you and Sail Away for proving, for the zillionth time, that expecting any kind of thoughtful discussion from this crowd is a fool’s errand. Truly a sad state of affairs when twitter offers more nuanced and thoughtful analysis. This planet and the people on it are doomed to failure by your example.

HAGW

#133 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 11:41 pm

#119 Russ on 08.20.21 at 10:43 pm
Errata. USa should be USA
——————————
Nobody cares.

#134 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 11:59 pm

#107 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.20.21 at 9:56 pm
#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.20.21 at 6:58 pm
I don’t see anyone pledging any serious money for public transport.
Big mistake.
We will pay the price in the future.
Have to get the carbon footprint under control.
And no, EVs not gonna do it.
And can’t wait for China

—-

I’m glad you’re not my accountant… At 1.6% of global emissions we are not the issue. We already have high environmental standards.. plus, now we pay a carbon tax for some reason… So it’s all good right?

https://fb.watch/7uMNQmMMBB/
—————
BeforeI take on new clients, I always subject them to an IQ test.
You, Sir, would not meet even my lowest threshold.
And BTW, I checked the clip.
How’s your success with the ladies?

#135 Nonplused on 08.21.21 at 1:42 am

#98 Oakville Rocks! on 08.20.21 at 9:16 pm

It takes only a minute to google the results of the 2020 election to find out that Cubans in Florida voted approx. 57% for Trump and 42% for Biden. As an engineer I am sure you recognize that 42 is not “near zero” and in fact is more accurately nearly even. In fact only 8% of Cuban voters would have to split from Trump to Biden for them to be equal, so hardly near zero.”

Ok, I’m guilty of some hyperbole. But an 8% spread is pretty big at the voting station. Flooding Florida with Cubans did not help the Democrats in that state, was my point.

—————————————

“Also you do a disservice to immigrants from China & Russia by suggesting that they cannot recognize the difference between Russia’s Socialist Kleptocracy under Putin and China’s Socialism with Chinese Characteristics (ie: corrupt local party officials) under Xi and the socialism suggested by the likes of Jagmeet Singh.”

I would suggest that it is the fact that they know Singh’s socialism will lead to the same outcomes they fled. We keep trying to tell ourselves there is some sort of “socialism light” and that Singh and Trudeau will get it just right and it won’t ever go off the rails down the line under some other administration, but so far socialism has not ever worked anywhere it has been tried, and the list of abysmal failures is long and well documented.

——————————————-

“Or this nugget #61 “Fact is we don’t really care about the poor. We just hate the rich. The poor don’t make us jealous.”

Where is that coming from? No doubt jealousy can be a factor for many but it is hardly true that WE don’t care about the poor. The number 1 charity in Canada is World Vision and #2 is the Salvation Army. Most of us have learned to deal with “jealousy” and do not let it influence our lives. Your comment seems especially foolish in light of yesterday’s post and Garth’s constant effort to remind people that there is more to life than the accumulation of material riches (house, stock portfolios).”

I stand by my statement. The average person will not give up more than $100 per year (no, not scientific, but it is what some survey I read suggests people are willing to spend on climate change) to help “the poor”, but they sure are in favor of penalizing the rich. That is not altruism.

Maybe you care about the poor and give to World Vision and the Salvation Army, if you said you did I would believe you. But that is not the same as the common middle class person being willing to give up the Audi and drive a Corolla for the sake of social justice in the housing market. It was a “royal we”, not necessarily you personally. I didn’t mean you. I didn’t even know you would read my comment.

#136 Barney Rabble on 08.21.21 at 1:54 am

“You’ll forgive me if I don’t think about… anything”
– Blunder Boy 2.0, Millennial version

#137 Dr V on 08.21.21 at 2:09 am

101 Wrk.dover

“Too small to meet codes now.”

https://thediscourse.ca/cowichan-valley/tiny-house-living

“ ‘The British Columbia Building Code does not prohibit tiny homes. A house can be as small as possible provided it meets the Code objectives of safety, health, accessibility, fire and structural protection, and energy and water efficiency. Mobile or manufactured homes are regulated by the Manufactured Home Regulation and must meet federal standards (CAN/CSA Z240-MH). People interested in building a tiny home should contact their local government to find out what land uses are permitted and the type and size of buildings and structures that may be constructed.”

‘Basically, tiny homes must meet housing codes designed for traditionally built or manufactured houses. But in reality, tiny homes tend to have attributes that make them non-compliant with those regulations, says Whelan of Rewild Homes. These include narrower doorway and hallway widths, smaller framing stud size, the existence of lofts, and a lack of secondary exits.’ ”

Wrk.dover – is there a particular code for building size
in your province?

#138 Diamond Dog on 08.21.21 at 4:58 am

Well said, Garth.

There are really only 2 ways to improve affordability. One is to drive down real estate values through tighter regulations and the other is through asset deflation. There really is no 3rd way, as growth and higher incomes get quickly priced in.

I’m feeling a bit awkward on trying to inject a little humor on my last post concerning your 50th, feeling a bit foolish for trying that. Just wanted to say that it’s obvious by the way you’ve talked about Dorothy over the years, that you both love each other deeply and (she puts up with you, it’s measurable) and I’m happy for you both.

Darned elections! They so remind me of the flaws in people, in how they vote. There are far too many of us voting for our own individual best interests when we should be voting for parties or organizations that have the interests of the nation and all of it’s people in mind. Do such parties exist? Would such parties and their leaders ever get elected if they didn’t pander to self interests? The blind leads the blind.

I’ve looked at C02 emissions recently for example and some 40% of GHG emissions come from our plants, industry alone, namely natural gas. To go to zero emissions which is what the IPCC is telling everyone to do, or brace for some ugly bruising lumps we can’t reverse, to do this, we need to go after the low hanging fruit and that’s emissions at the plants. We are on the cusp of geothermal which could help us tremendously with the push to zero emissions at plants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qn7IhGitNE4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ss_wHCS1Aw

What is the political will?

If you make your money with the O & G industry, is that something that would sign up for, a political party promoting geothermal that cuts into your volumes and contracts? There’s still supplying gas to homes that the current government is pushing a carbon tax to improve efficiencies that will chop volumes, or LNG in an increasingly competitive market Quebec just said no to.

To make money from nat gas, it would take more of what has already happened (consolidation, the arrival of monopolies, price fixing) that in some ways has led producers to charge more for less which is fine. I believe the consumer is ready to pay for it, but is the industry itself ready to go there? To rely on the depletion of existing assets and slow roll future exploration? Recognize the need for more government control to survive?

This is the climate change side of policy, its parties representing competing self interests which can be argued that no carbon tax for example is best for the nation’s finances but is it? Is it best for the environment to get rid of a carbon tax and further ensure the advent of heat waves, floods, climate disasters crushing Ag exports for example, this is best for Canada, best for the world? Or merely best for self interests on our way to some ugly lessons to follow.

With real estate valuations and affordability and access to that nesting Canadian dream, it’s the same thing; competing self interests, market long term stability be damned.

There is large room for criticism against every party. Their ideals, their candidates, their policies and their personnel along with their support. Parties are trying to win by pandering to self interests of the good of the nation and the good of the planet. Everyone is doing it, some blindly, some willfully but they all do it because it’s what their supporters want. What is the percentage of voters that votes for stability, votes for what is best for Canada and the world over their own selfish wants? Where is that vote forced to go?

It makes me appreciate your post all the more, Garth. You laid bare what the parties are proposing with real estate and followed it up with needed accurate criticisms & a few praises and came full circle with solutions which is not common in media today. The theme of self interest vs public interest came into full view.

Once again, nicely done.

#139 onehouse on 08.21.21 at 5:20 am

One house per family. No more landlords with 2 or 3 or more properties, hording them, profiting from them.

force the sale of those properties at once and the market with crash. Give people the ability to buy their rental apartment at a fair, non inflated price. and they will.

one property per family. Punish landlords, greedy middle men that provide no value.

publish all history of a house, and let people bid eachother like ebay. totally transparent sales.

#140 under the radar on 08.21.21 at 6:21 am

People don’t care about the final cost of a house or car or the size of their debt, they just want to know they can make the monthly payment.

#141 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.21.21 at 6:56 am

#110 Faron on 08.20.21 at 10:11 pm
#106 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.20.21 at 9:56 pm

Yes. If you are only responsible for 1.6 percent of the murders, why should anyone even bother arresting you? Amirite?

——

This is a perfect example of the strawman argument… To take something that is completely unrelated and use it to prove the point you feel is correct. So in a world of “murderers” then.. yes that would likely be correct, the person that only committed 1.6% of the murders would not be arrested… That make you feel better?

And your a weatherman… the only job in the world that you can be 100% wrong daily and still keep your job. Unbelievable they let you talk at all… In reality Canada is a shining star of environmentalism…

#142 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.21.21 at 7:33 am

#118 Russ on 08.20.21 at 10:40 pm

—-

I wish you best of luck in your arguments Russ… It’s almost impossible for a certain type to not self-flagellate on these subjects. Some, because their livelihoods depend on (Foron) and some, because they’re too stupid to question, too lazy to research, or too scared to point out true culprits… People like Foron will use nonsensical arguments to try to garner a mob against you, so you just give up, or use manipulative metrics (like per population) to try to get the largest number they can to scare you…

Observational sciences are generally pseudosciences… And our current science de jour of climate science is, at best, science fiction…

#143 Stone on 08.21.21 at 7:38 am

#45 SoggyShorts on 08.20.21 at 4:22 pm
About the markets, what’s dragging down VGRO?

Since I have an 80/20 I use it as my benchmark but it’s a full 5% off YTD (not counting dividends)

My boring PF up 16%:
20% HTB.TO
13% XIU
67% VOO/ZSP

Also surprising that Stone’s suggested PF is lagging behind at just over 11% as well.

Is it just the emerging market exposure that I don’t have?

———

Sorry to disappoint (not really) but my portfolio is actually at 17.36% ytd. Oh well.

#144 ImGonnaBeSick on 08.21.21 at 8:20 am

#138 onehouse on 08.21.21 at 5:20 am
One house per family. No more landlords with 2 or 3 or more properties, hording them, profiting from them.

force the sale of those properties at once and the market with crash. Give people the ability to buy their rental apartment at a fair, non inflated price. and they will.

one property per family. Punish landlords, greedy middle men that provide no value.

publish all history of a house, and let people bid eachother like ebay. totally transparent sales.

—–

What a strange argument… Landlords provide a massive service in regards to housing, even the amateur ones… You may be one of these people that mistakenly think that the mortgage is all that you need to pay when you own a house… Here’s some unsolicited advice.. you don’t _have_ to own a house… Renting is perfectly viable, especially in your 20s and 30s.

#145 KLNR on 08.21.21 at 9:22 am

@#138 onehouse on 08.21.21 at 5:20 am
One house per family. No more landlords with 2 or 3 or more properties, hording them, profiting from them.

force the sale of those properties

Lolololo

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 10:09 am

@#66 Faron.
“Just my observations. Curious what others think.”

+++

Interesting.
I’ve been watching this extended heat wave all across Northern America’s breadbasket and wonder when the price of food will skyrocket beyond its current levels.

Grain crops at brutal lows.
Meat producers forced to slaughter everything due to rising feed costs.

Here comes Inflation riding along side several of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse, Famine and Disease.

We only need China invading Taiwan to complete a Trifecta of Misery.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.21.21 at 10:20 am

@#126 fishman

“The study found that commercial to residential zoning cost the city huge money.”

+++

True but that didnt change successive Mayors from raising city property taxes to blood letting levels.
The Vancouver core now has ONE…one gas station left.
All the rest sold their land to developers for millions to build more empty condo towers.

I remember a small repair shop in Yaletown in the early 1990’s that I would get radiator repairs done.
It moved to Hastings and Commercial to a horrible location.
I asked him why he moved from such a great location downtown when he owned the Yaletown site…

“The city wouldn’t renew my business license”.

So after decades of paying the property taxes and running a successful, clean and tidy business….some govt pissant decided he wasnt a good fit for the new residential towers and postage stamp parks.

He made several hundred k on a sale he didnt want to do.
Peanuts compared to the millions a developer with the city in its back pocket made.

He packed in the Hasting St. business after a few years.

#148 Dharma Bum on 08.21.21 at 10:30 am

#33 Tha Jaguar

We’re beginning a new age. Enlighted or not it’s going to take real street smarts and forward thinking to survive and thrive in the new age. Flexibility, adaptability, improvisation and living within ones means will be survival tools. Many don’t even know what this means, never mind having the tool kit. It happening right before our eyes.
———————————————————————————

As usual the Jaguar proves to be the most sensible commenter on this blog.

Well, that’s mostly because I usually agree with him!

But he’s right. Just sayin’. Sh*t’s about to get real.

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” – G. Michael Hopf (Those who Remain)

A bit dramatic, but essentially true. For the most part.

We stand on the shoulders of giants. Then we get soft. Then we lose our skills and start taking everything for granted. We slip into the entropy of entitlement. We want, want, want, and take, take, take, but learn how to produce nothing, until everything disappears. We ultimately lose everything until a few strong men rise from the ashes to make life better once again for future generations to stand on their shoulders. And so it goes.

Mostly.

https://unearnedwisdom.com/strong-men-create-good-times-analysis/

“Hard times, if optimally gauged so as not to produce too much stress, create a few strong men, sometimes, who create good times, if the good times are excessively good, they create a few weak men, who create hard times, but mostly for themselves, and only sometimes.”

But maybe that’s not such a great story.

#149 Prince Polo on 08.21.21 at 10:58 am

#133 James on 08.18.21 at 3:34 pm
Trudeau is a putz and does not even come close to leading this country. WTF?

https://thepostmillennial.com/watch-trudeau-says-that-he-doesnt-think-about-monetary-policy-when-asked-about-economy-inflation

OMG – maybe he should just dance Bhangra for the remaining weeks of the campaign.

#150 Linda on 08.21.21 at 5:39 pm

#65 ‘Quin’ – first off, learn the difference between ‘steel’ which is manufactured metal & ‘steal’ which is the word one uses to describe theft. Second, there are/were over 9 million ‘Boomers’ which despite hyperbole do not knowingly conspire to steal from the younger generations. Nor do they exclusively make up government. Your current PM is of the younger generational cohort – not a Boomer – & current government largesse etc. has flowed mainly to the younger generation by default. Those Boomers you blame for your self inflicted woes – what, did a Boomer force anyone to bid up the prices of a house to insane levels? No, they simply cashed in on your self inflicted stupidity. Seriously, if someone told you they would pay over asking for something you were selling, you would what? Say no? Refuse to take the windfall? Be honest with yourself here ‘Quin’. You are just as likely as anyone else to say ‘sold!’, take the money & smile as you handed over the goods. Then boast about the score to your buddies.

Those Boomers you envy have most of them worked all their lives for what they have. The expectation that someone should start at the point where others are after decades of building assets is unrealistic to say the least. Stop wasting your time blaming others for where you are or are not in life.

#151 Idiocy on 08.21.21 at 6:02 pm

to comment 66 Faron

That is a small position given his overall portfolio.
Many such guys take leveraged shots with less than 2 % of their assets on large asymetric bets trying to juice overall performance.
No big deal, done every day by hedgies.

That said, selling a put spread way out of the money makes sense on any major pull back and SPY Nov 2021’s closed at like 4.73 Friday. They moved from a high of 6.45 Thursday, so a good move and he might have even sold them already.

#152 Massive Supply will reduce the RE prices on 08.22.21 at 12:24 am

Only significant increase in the residential new construction to satisfy the demand would be able to help. The government should have plans to build new cities, like they do in Israel. For example, the city of Harish, completely new, half way between Tel Aviv and Haifa. Prices are affordable – 3 bedroom Condo is about $400-500k in the towers where there are only 4 flats on the floor so the each flat is the corner flat. The designs of the buildings and city planning is much better than those in Canada. It is only 10 km from the Mediterranean sea beach open 9 month out of 12.