Summer numb

The house lust cooled in July. So was that a seasonal thing? Was it the fading of pandemic angst and aggressive nesting? Or has this insane, historic market started to roll over?

Knowing the answers would be helpful. If selling, this could be the moment of maximum profit, allowing you to buy back into a declining environment. If buying, maybe this is a giant ‘wait’ signal. Or maybe the Delta Third Wave will crash us back into quarantines, re-igniting WFH and pushing values higher. In the meantime certainties are (a) a federal vote soon and (b) an ugly budget in the Spring.

What an awful moment to be a homeless, house-horny Millennial wanting to have a couple of kids, settle down, buy a Dodge Grand Caravan, learn about term insurance and furnace filters and start Googling ‘laser tattoo removal’. Sigh. Adulting. Sucks.

And, wow, look at this little calculation National Bank just did on what it takes to buy a property for a million in Toronto – if you can find anything at that price without bugs.

Indeed. To purchase now requires a household income of about $200,000, a savings rate of 10%, then 26 and a half years of frugality to acquire a downpayment. Or the Bank of Mom. So, clearly this is an unsustainable situation when a couple making that amount is in the 98th percentile of income in Canada.

Back to July. In Toronto 9,390 properties changed hands, a 40% drop from March (15,652 sales) which this pathetic blog told you some months ago was Peak House. The average price of just over a million stalled from June and has dropped a few thousand from the record in May. This is significant because mortgages have stayed cheap and listings have diminished.

The realtors put on a brave face. “The annual rate of price growth has moderated since the early spring, but has remained in the double digits. This means that many households are still competing very hard to reach a deal on a home. This strong upward pressure on home prices will be sustained in the absence of more supply, especially as we see a resurgence in population growth moving into 2022.” Well, we’ll see.

Vancouver, too. Sales are down year/year and month/month. The real estate board there wants you to think it’s because this is, well, summer. “Moderation was the name of the game in July. Home sales and listings fell in line with typical seasonal patterns as summer got going in earnest in July. On top of moderating market activity, price growth has leveled off in most areas and home types.”

Listings have crashed there, too. Down over 18% from last July and off more than 9% from June.

But it’s not just YVR and the GTA that are unattainable now. Its everywhere. To acquire the average house across Canada ($679,000) the bankers say households need to squirrel away 10% of the average income for the better part of 6 years. One year ago the time required was ‘just’ 4.75 years.

“True,” says the bank, “the latest reports on housing market activity hint that we may be turning a point: Home sales have slowed, and prices appear to be decelerating in certain markets. In addition, mortgage interest rates have edged down in recent weeks. Nonetheless, resale market indicators such as the active-listings-to sales ratio still indicate a market favorable to home price appreciation. As a result, we don’t expect affordability to improve in H2 2021.”

So let’s review.

Only 2% of the entire population can reasonably expect to buy in Toronto or the Lower Mainland. Mortgage rates are highly unlikely to drop more. The opposite, probably. Household debt has exploded higher in the past year (about $18 billion a month) with mortgage borrowing up more than 8%, to $1.7 trillion. A decade ago home loans equaled about 60% of the economy. Now we’re on our way to 90%. The stress test just got tougher. Taxes are going to increase. Houses price increases have outstripped income growth by a factor of 15.

Conclusion: this is not seasonality. It’s delusion. Covid isn’t coming back in the same way to cause more urban flight, FOMO and panic buying. No more lockdowns – they’d be political suicide. 2020 was a fluke. An aberration. A one-off not to be mistaken for a trend. It feels more like we’ve hit the wall.

The rest should be easy to figure out.

About the picture: “This is Olive, our 4 year old ‘English’ style yellow Labrador,” writes Dr. Dan.  “She is a beautiful dog and loves everyone she meets.   As a large animal veterinarian, when I come home at the end of the day, I am thoroughly vacuumed by her nose – such interesting tales in all the smells.  I have enjoyed your edgy commentary and witty analysis for many years.  And, as a bonus, you have provided improved dental hygiene (I brush my teeth while reading your column every night).  You didn’t know that you were keeping dental costs down across Canada!  Hope you find your flag.”

91 comments ↓

#1 Lt. Commander Data on 08.06.21 at 3:55 pm

Computer, please provide latest data from official sources on Covid-19.

>>
Public Health England (PHE) said that of confirmed Delta cases that had ended up hospitalized since July 19, 55.1% were unvaccinated, while 34.9% had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Nearly 75% of the British population has had two vaccine doses, and PHE said that “as more of the population gets vaccinated, we will see a higher relative percentage of vaccinated people in hospital”.

Separately, PHE said another variant, known as B.1.621, first detected in Colombia, had shown signs of evading the immune response triggered by either COVID-19 vaccines or previous infection.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-emerging-signs-covid-19-vaccines-may-not-stop-delta-variant-england/

#2 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 3:57 pm

The Canadian women’s soccer team won Olympic gold this morning. Can we wave our Canadian flags now? Even the little ones that come on a stick?

(Great job ladies!)

#3 Soviet Capitalist on 08.06.21 at 3:58 pm

I’ve been seeing multi-million houses in my neighbourhood being sold in 2-3 days during July.
Many realtors are so busy, they don’t even answer phone calls.

Not sure we’ve seen peak housing yet. It will likely get much crazier in the next few months.

#4 wallflower on 08.06.21 at 4:00 pm

Okay so let’s parse this.

The all knowing Canada real estate gawds inform us that with increasing population comes increasing stress in housing (ie higher prices).
(In 2021 we are immigrating people already in Canada.
So what does that mean?)

If the premise is that we require immigrants to keep this belly floating… then, by logical deduction, the only way to float this belly is immigrants.
How does that make any sense whatsoever unless it is the immigrants buying the housing units and not the locals and if it is the immigrants, then, our business model is to import people who can afford our housing market.

And, not to create people who can afford our market.
So what does that mean?

Is there anything even potentially absurd about any of this?

#5 TurnerNation on 08.06.21 at 4:08 pm

#103 Frankly I don’t care on 08.06.21 at 9:10 am

I gave a short bio:
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2021/03/20/really-7/#comment-772725

One tidbit, I have been up to the 54th floor a few times.

— Are we there yet?

“#6 TurnerNation on 01.12.20 at 2:20 pm
Things will speed up SO fast in 2020-2021 to roll out the plans. Nobody will come to your door and take away your property no. They’ll just take 5-10% of its value away in Tax each year, and empty home tax, land transfer tax, capital gains on sales taxes (stay tuned!), carbon taxes. In a down market this would prove fatal.”

— On the data for Economic Lockdowns. Suspect backdating. Hey are we still banging pots and pans at 7pm daily?

https://twitter.com/Golden_Pup/status/1423625027791032320
“Ontario is also reporting 18 new deaths with COVID-19 today, with another big backlog from Peel.
3 deaths reported by Peel were from cases dating back to 2020.
10 of the deaths were individuals over 70, one was an individual under 40.”


— Economic Lockdowns update: The Science in Kanada (Manitoba) just now changed. Extensive studying concluded that people get sick at bingo halls but not in movie theatres! I imagine.

.Manitoba Drops Use Of Vaccine Passport to Enter Restaurants & Gyms (cbc.ca)
“Museums, galleries and movie theatres remain limited to 50 per cent capacity but will no longer be restricted to fully vaccinated individuals.”
Casinos and bingo halls, professional sporting events, horse and auto racing and concert halls will continue to be limited to vaccinated individuals but can now open to 100 per cent capacity”


— Control over our movements. You are free to leave at any time. No really.

.Border workers begin work-to-rule action days before border scheduled to reopen (Canada) (cbc.ca)

#6 Kingkouros69 on 08.06.21 at 4:11 pm

Nobody I know can afford a house in GTA without having equity from a previous home.

I thought new buyers were needed to keep this gasbag going on…

#7 When Will They Raise Rates? on 08.06.21 at 4:14 pm

While I agree that prices are not sustainable, there are a few assumptions that need to be reconsidered here…

This fall will tell all… Long popcorn.

#8 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 4:18 pm

#1 Lt. Commander Data on 08.06.21 at 3:55 pm
Computer, please provide latest data from official sources on Covid-19.
—————
It’s Alexa, now.
As for the new variant from Columbia.
I heard, that one is easy to defeat.
Just grind it into a white powder, and snort it.
Works against all other variants.
Get jabbed, my friend.
Keep wearing the mask that’s all you can do.
Let the scientists deal with Virus, and follow their advise.
And relax.
Or go to one of IHTC9D9’s Beggars’ Banquets.
He likes to party.
You may even see JT there.

#9 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 08.06.21 at 4:24 pm

Yes ofcourse numbers can prove a lot of things.
On the other hand while the market has slowed down in GVARB area that does not include the Fraser Valley RB where the fastest growing city ( Surrey) is and where listing are at a 40 years low ,only 1981 had less listing as per my Google feed.Supply is also a major issue.
Going back to Vancouver and Burnaby there is simply nothing decent SFH to buy under 3 mil , hence the drop in sales.
Pretty simple ,until new supply comes online there is just about nothing to buy if you want to live in it.

Now back to basics, a young couple only needs 20-40 K or so to gather the 5% for a condo or townhouse down-payment. Mortgage an all else would be under 3K monthly so I don’t see the issue here ,a bit more than rent.
SFH should never be the goal for a first time young buyer.

It is doable ,now if one should it is a different proposition all together.

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 4:25 pm

Talking about “summer numb”.
I’m way past numb.
I had it. The heat is frying my brain, the little that’s left.
Donnie G.
How can you stand the Heat in Mechiko?
Never thought I’d say that, but can’t wait for winter.
Oh God, please send rain to wash all the heat away.
And all my sins too, while you’re at it

#11 Summertime on 08.06.21 at 4:34 pm

For all practical intents and purposes house prices are hugely over inflated, to the scale of 200-300 % more from where it should be. It seems there is no economy besides housing and related financial services, so prices can not be allowed to go down. But there would be soon shortage of idiots wiling to take on ever bigger debt even with the great potential shown as of lately in this post-nation, even stupidity has it’s limits (normally and this is not a normal place).

So I give up on trying to predict what will happen in the housing ‘market’ and when. That requires logic and logic is irrelevant in strongly religions (housing) societies.

Could we get 50 years or intergenerational, joint, interest only mortgages? Sure, why not?

2, 3, 5 mil a shack seems a done deal here.

#12 ogdoad on 08.06.21 at 4:39 pm

wow! We’ll see…the amount of building and ‘Sold’ signs that I’ve seen while traveling around some popular areas are ridiculous. even more ridiculous are the high noses…haha! Laughable, actually. Reminds me of The Sneetches, LOL!!!

Hey, if you’re a whiny little wuss with lots of savings, buy, set and forget. Raise your little offspring wanting a house and high noses…see where you end up.

If you’re a renter, rejoice. Pack your TFSA instead of buying furnace filters and waiting in Costco (brain dead) line-ups fighting over Franks Red-Hot…see where you end up.

Eschew stress and gain wealth. Experience lands besides Canada. Best way for people to love to hate you, LOL!!!

Og

#13 Quintilian on 08.06.21 at 4:43 pm

#10 Ponzius Pilatus
“Oh God, please send rain to wash all the heat away.
And all my sins too, while you’re at it”

The sin part might be a tall order, but I will ask Her for you.
Q

#14 Ryan on 08.06.21 at 4:56 pm

We’re an older millenial couple, newborn, RESP, dog, motorcycle (doesn’t) get much use. Both have DBs but we’d need 15 and 25 more years to get a 60% fully taxable pension that is bridged with CPP, ie one of us will maybe meet that requirement before age 70. Point is even with $500k saved and invested, financial advisors have said the max we can afford is $850k at a max 3.5% interest rate with $170k down. In short… Ain’t happening… In Canada… In line at the Wolfe Island Ferry going to meet friends who left 3 yrs ago to NYC can move to NYC to afford a life, yes, it’s more affordable than Ottawa I had no problem renting, but now my $3,500 semi with no yard is going up to $4,200/mth. I dunno how the heck your supposed to afford 1 used car, daycare and rent on two food salaries. And we don’t splurge. So that’s a snapshot of my story. We are not the misfortunate and those are truly suffering. I wish Canada well. I love it. But so do millions more and it’s going to be a crazy competition for shelter for years and years. Parties of all cloth will use everything to keep price high, 40 year, shared equity, who knows…. Thanks for what you do Garth, for 12 years I’ve read and followed a debt free, invested life. But we’d like a home to call are own and it won’t happen for us before 50.

#15 Dolce Vita on 08.06.21 at 5:03 pm

Crazy that only a select few can afford a home, bugs and all, in Canada. Maybe this will drop prices then again, it’s a disease so unlikely.

Poor Dr. Garth, your patients prescribe their own reckless medicine and ignore your decades of experience.

Welcome to Planet Canada.

#16 Dolce Vita on 08.06.21 at 5:10 pm

Long and the short, we’re being shorted on vax supply and shorting ourselves vaxing.

——-

Maybe premature but to keep the wraps on Delta Canada needs:

1. Vaxing.
2. Vax.

Vaxing going downhill like a snowball down Everest.

https://i.imgur.com/MyfBgnk.png

Tweeted to Minister Anand in the “WTF has happened to deliveries” Dept? Normally get her 2 to many bricks short of a full load Liberal minions attacking me (and getting their nose bit off subsequently) about this but for 2 days:

SILENCE.

And she has stopped tweeting about 66M doses in hand which if BS, 59.9M as of today.

The EU must be slowing down vax deliveries to Canada. Why? I do not know.

Vax delivery shortfalls, Gov Canada Forecast vs. Recv’d, doses:

July 26 – Aug 1 = 4.2 million
Aug 2 – Aug 8 = 2.2 million*
Overall since Apr 24 = 6.1 million (Canada had a surplus for awhile)

Details table, I track this every day:

https://i.imgur.com/ZnoRU21.png

Yesterday: 6.1M unvaxd. 12+ yrs old: 82% single dosed. 69% double dosed.

Projection12+ yrs old: about Aug 26 = 80% all vaxd, Sep 19 = 90% all vaxd (if indeed Delta is that nasty).

———————

*As of Friday, August 6, 2021 3:46PM EDT no deliveries today, only once since Apr 24 has there been a weekend delivery. Safe to assume there will be none this weekend.

#17 Ian on 08.06.21 at 5:23 pm

Lambda variant, or the next, may very well change our current hopes of the return to normal. If so inclined, have a search on pubmed, or Nature, JAMA, etc and the other peer reviewed medical journals. Much recent expert discussion is regarding the high likelihood of a soon to be active vaccine(Current vaccine. It can be altered quickly due to mRNA tech) resistant variant. I wish this was over soon and life would resume to a pre-covid like era. I fear this is unlikely. I would be cautious of over confidence right now in all contexts influenced by public health conditions.

#18 Linda on 08.06.21 at 5:28 pm

Olives fur looks blue white in todays photo. Very chic!

In our end of the world, sellers are still betting on housing lust. Just saw a For Sale sign for a property a couple of blocks away. Have no idea of the back story, but this place has been deteriorating for years. Literally had parts of the overhanging roof entry falling down, bushes/weeds choking the steps to the front door to the point where opening said door is probably not doable, landscaping in general in very poor condition etc. May actually bother to see what price they are hoping to get for this place – offhand, whoever buys will need to gut it completely & not because they just want to have the latest mod cons. More like, to ensure it is not a death trap.

#19 Guy in Calgary on 08.06.21 at 5:29 pm

If you shunned Canada Day, are you allowed to celebrate the women’s soccer win or no?

These mental gymnastics get exhausting after a while.

#20 Mattl on 08.06.21 at 5:33 pm

DELETED

#21 Dave on 08.06.21 at 5:34 pm

Sorry but Garth you have had the same story every few months when real estate slows temporarily!

For well over a decade…same old cycle. Boom….stable…lull…..then BOOM! It’s timeless and again you are wrong.

There numbers for buying a house stopped making sense over 5 years ago but there are just too many people that can afford and do buy.

#22 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.06.21 at 5:37 pm

CROCODILE DEATH ROLL!
As Jim Grant wrote decades ago “The way to wealth in a bull market is debt. and the way to oblivion in a bear market is also debt, and nobody rings a bell.” Before long I suspect the bankers will introduce the overindebted to the “Crocodile Death Roll” they will chomp down with incredible force from which there is no escape, then tenderize you for a few months by offering cruel hope and sympathy. Then, come bonus time they’ll have a sudden change of attitude and rip the marrow out of the financially dying overindebted individuals carcass. When it is all said and done, I think a great number of the financially challenged will come to the conclusion that “We can see further through our tears then the lens of a telescope. I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#23 Yukon Elvis on 08.06.21 at 5:41 pm

Re immigration: in some societies families pool their money to buy a home and have 3 generations living under the same roof. Very common. I foresee immigration increasing and the demand for real estate increasing and prices staying high. It has been happening in the LM for decades. No real meaningful increase in rates or we become Venezuela.

#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 5:43 pm

#2 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 3:57 pm
The Canadian women’s soccer team won Olympic gold this morning. Can we wave our Canadian flags now? Even the little ones that come on a stick?

(Great job ladies!)
————-
I second that.
Very young team. Great future.
Kudos to Sinclair to yield to the kids in the penalty shoot out.
Great role model.
In my opinion, she the best female soccer player on the Planet.

#25 T on 08.06.21 at 5:45 pm

#1 Lt. Commander Data on 08.06.21 at 3:55 pm
Computer, please provide latest data from official sources on Covid-19.

>>
Public Health England (PHE) said that of confirmed Delta cases that had ended up hospitalized since July 19, 55.1% were unvaccinated, while 34.9% had received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Nearly 75% of the British population has had two vaccine doses, and PHE said that “as more of the population gets vaccinated, we will see a higher relative percentage of vaccinated people in hospital”.

Separately, PHE said another variant, known as B.1.621, first detected in Colombia, had shown signs of evading the immune response triggered by either

—————

It’s clear the unvaccinated population is at a higher risk of hospitalization when the 25% unvaccinated population makes up more than 50% of the hospitalized cases. When you look at deaths due to covid you see the trend is stronger, where there are almost no deaths amongst the fully vaccinated – but you failed to mention that stat.

#26 Linda on 08.06.21 at 5:47 pm

Actually looked up the dilapidated place for sale. They want $280,000 for it. The listing says sold ‘as is, where is’ & further informs any potential bidder that there is ‘mold in the home & there will be no access until there is an accepted offer’. 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 4 level split, 1,150 square feet. Has a double garage in back – also not in good condition – the garage doors are warped to the point where they don’t close fully. Based on the glimpse offered by the open space at the bottom of the garage doors, the garage is packed full of what appears to be rusting household appliances & other household debris. ‘As is, where is’ means whoever buys this disaster will be the one taking care of the junk pile.

#27 Billy Buoy on 08.06.21 at 5:48 pm

I’m guessing that the SHTF in the spring of 2022.

Until then, prepare to deploy your savings then.

#28 valleyranter on 08.06.21 at 5:52 pm

Scuttlebutt on the ol’ Reddit is that the kids are planning demonstrations in cities across Canada for affordable housing. Will be interesting to see if any politicos chomp at that bit.

August 14th. – Garth

#29 Polecat on 08.06.21 at 5:55 pm

Turner Nation, you on the inside? Your calls are pretty bang on. Kinda depresses me sometimes but thankfully happy hour is open again, cheers man!

#30 RichB!tch on 08.06.21 at 6:08 pm

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.21 at 1:59 pm
@#108 RichB!tch
“Weird how it bothers you so much that one can deduce from her comments she has money,”
+++
Well the big difference being Sailio and others still grind it out here in Canuckda paying their taxes…

I’d say my annoyance comes not so much from the fact that she( an ex realtor and her developer husband) have money.
It’s the constant “letters to the colonialists” denigrating people who are still living in Canada ( “Why would anyone want to live there?”).
I’m sure her family LOVES when she deigns to visit the Great White North and remind them how stupid they all are.
The endless reminders of the properties in England and Italy ( god forbid you call the condo in Italy a condo…Its a pallazzo “palace” ).

The newly rich and their crass materialism.
Note to the newly rich
You cant buy class.

—————————

Speaking of class, have you ever noticed that despite your never missing an opportunity to insult and criticize Jane24, she never takes the bait?

#31 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 6:15 pm

It seems to me that average house prices in YYZ and YVR are completely detached from average incomes. Some other factor must explain the prices, because affordability even among the well off cannot.

Could it be a self reinforcing loop involving the bank of mom? I.e. long time owners who have seen their house double or more and have no mortgage are cashing out to provide junior with a huge down payment? There must be some of that going on but I don’t think that can fully explain it.

Immigrants living 4 to a room? Probably not. And at least here in Calgary most of the new immigrants who do buy are buying new builds in the suburbs, the majority of which are no where near the median price. Often half. Ya, it’s a small townhouse on a small lot in the middle of nowhere, but in Calgary that isn’t so bad. You can get from one end of the city to the other in 45 minutes by car and if you are going downtown transit is surprisingly convenient.

10 times leverage? I’m sure some people do that but how many really?

Foreign investors? That has been debunked.

FOMO? “Fear of missing out” should be replaced by “FIAMO” (Fear I already missed out). When the millennials drop by this comments section the don’t say “I feel optimistic so I plan to buy at these prices” like GenX may have should this blog have existed 25 years ago. Nay, the millennials say “I will never own a house”. There is defeat in their voices (or written words). This isn’t the sort of optimism that packs open houses or drives bidding wars. Sure, many millennials would love to own a house, but when it comes to affordability and their view of their long term economic opportunities, I would say this crowd is mostly defeated and sees no other option but to fall back on the government to “do something”. They aren’t bidding $1 million dollars on a slanty. Not in huge numbers anyway.

None of the usual drivers make any sense. There must be something else going.

So what is driving it? Probably several factors but I think one possibility is that the boomers just won’t sell. The house is far to big for them now as their kids have moved out, but it is their house and they can’t let go. Sure, they are retired or soon to be, but they are holding on to that 4 bedroom inner-city house on a large lot to the very end, preventing redevelopment and forcing those still in the workforce to live further and further away from the downtown core. And why would they sell? Every year it seems the house goes up more than they ever made in a year working.

Could this be true? Well, I think we can get some evidence from schools. Every year the enrollment in inner city schools drops, while the school board scrambles to build new schools in the suburbs. They use buses to keep schools full that in past years everyone could walk to.

If my “boomers won’t sell” theory is correct, the bubble could last another 10 years. But eventually everyone has to sell.

#32 DON on 08.06.21 at 6:16 pm

#2 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 3:57 pm
The Canadian women’s soccer team won Olympic gold this morning. Can we wave our Canadian flags now? Even the little ones that come on a stick?

(Great job ladies!)

**********

Fantastic! Congrats to all of them.

#33 Billy Buoy on 08.06.21 at 6:17 pm

Bottom line Life is risk and reward.

With covid, by the spending spree on houses and now record USA credit debt it seems a majority is just living the “why not spend and enjoy?” Lifestyle rather than being prudent.

That’s fine and dandy if SHTF and you have nothing to lose if we are all going down but if we aren’t?

The way things are now no one takes responsibility for their actions and the CB’s for the most part just paper over the risks that businesses and people take.

I feel one day they won’t and the 1% will be there to buy it all.

#34 Tyring to put out fires everywhere on 08.06.21 at 6:18 pm

Another southern B.C. community has been devastated by wildfire. Multiple homes and businesses reduced to rubble as wind-whipped flames advanced on Monte Lake between Kamloops and Vernon overnight.

Okanagan night clubs and bars order closed again.

High-intensity indoor fitness classes in the region ordered shut down Monday.

In local vacation rentals, a maximum of five additional visitors will be allowed.

Dr. Henry stated to not travel in and out of the Central Okanagan for non-essential reasons.

#35 The joy of steerage on 08.06.21 at 6:19 pm

#30 RichB!tch on 08.06.21 at 6:08 pm

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.21 at 1:59 pm
@#108 RichB!tch
“Weird how it bothers you so much that one can deduce from her comments she has money,”
+++
Well the big difference being Sailio and others still grind it out here in Canuckda paying their taxes…

I’d say my annoyance comes not so much from the fact that she( an ex realtor and her developer husband) have money.
It’s the constant “letters to the colonialists” denigrating people who are still living in Canada ( “Why would anyone want to live there?”).
I’m sure her family LOVES when she deigns to visit the Great White North and remind them how stupid they all are.
The endless reminders of the properties in England and Italy ( god forbid you call the condo in Italy a condo…Its a pallazzo “palace” ).

The newly rich and their crass materialism.
Note to the newly rich
You cant buy class.

—————————

Speaking of class, have you ever noticed that despite your never missing an opportunity to insult and criticize Jane24, she never takes the bait?
….

Lady Jane does not mingle with the flatulent commoners…

#36 The joy of steerage on 08.06.21 at 6:24 pm

#29 Polecat on 08.06.21 at 5:55 pm

Turner Nation, you on the inside? Your calls are pretty bang on. Kinda depresses me sometimes but thankfully happy hour is open again, cheers man!
..
Inside of what!!!…. he hails from a galaxy far far away…. channeling his inner smoking man our way.. day in day out since the blog started!

#37 DON on 08.06.21 at 6:24 pm

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 4:25 pm
Talking about “summer numb”.
I’m way past numb.
I had it. The heat is frying my brain, the little that’s left.
Donnie G.
How can you stand the Heat in Mechiko?
Never thought I’d say that, but can’t wait for winter.
Oh God, please send rain to wash all the heat away.
And all my sins too, while you’re at it

********

Clouds over the southern VI…muggy and the wind is picking up. I hope it pours.

#38 Dolce Vita on 08.06.21 at 6:27 pm

#24 Ponzius Pilatus, #2 Nonplused

Canada Women Gold…

To quote a UK commenter on Twitter to a BBC Tweet about UK medals:

“We keep winning medals in sports nobody gives a toss about.”

——————

Citius = Italia, Men’s 100m
Altius = Italia, Men’s High Jump
Fortius = Canada, Men’s Decathlon, Damien Warner*

*Though, the weightlifters may have a thing to say about “Fortius”. I say to win at 10 Olympic sports over 2 grueling days is close enough to Fortius for me.

And Pole Vault for Altius, well then, they may as well have a competition firing people out of a large spring loaded cannon or put a rocket pack on them.

#39 DON on 08.06.21 at 6:29 pm

#6 Kingkouros69 on 08.06.21 at 4:11 pm
Nobody I know can afford a house in GTA without having equity from a previous home.

I thought new buyers were needed to keep this gasbag going on…

**********

People are buying multiple houses…I know of acquantances that have 2 or more condos as well as the house they put down as collateral.

#40 Felix on 08.06.21 at 6:30 pm

(fyi- that pic looks more like ‘Summer dumb’)

Anyway, Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Compared to the size of their heads, cats have the largest eyes of any mammal.

Cats can be trained to do a variety of tricks – it just takes a bit of patience and creativity.

Napolean is rumored to have had ailurophobia – that is, he was scared of cats.

Cats can see with only one sixth the amount of light needed by humans

#41 Felix on 08.06.21 at 6:30 pm

(fyi- that pic looks more like ‘Summer dumb’ – or perhaps ‘some are dumb’, though really they all are)

Anyway, Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Compared to the size of their heads, cats have the largest eyes of any mammal.

Cats can be trained to do a variety of tricks – it just takes a bit of patience and creativity.

Napolean is rumored to have had ailurophobia – that is, he was scared of cats.

Cats can see with only one sixth the amount of light needed by humans

#42 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 6:33 pm

#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 5:43 pm
#2 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 3:57 pm
The Canadian women’s soccer team won Olympic gold this morning. Can we wave our Canadian flags now? Even the little ones that come on a stick?

(Great job ladies!)
————-
I second that.
Very young team. Great future.
Kudos to Sinclair to yield to the kids in the penalty shoot out.
Great role model.
In my opinion, she the best female soccer player on the Planet.

————————————

Ya, Sinclair showed great leadership throughout this tournament, but I think the bookies failed to notice this isn’t the same team as even 5 years ago. Great young talent.

My guess is Sinclair will announce her retirement soon, but we’ll see her on the sidelines in a coaching roll immediately thereafter.

———————————–

#19 Guy in Calgary on 08.06.21 at 5:29 pm

“If you shunned Canada Day, are you allowed to celebrate the women’s soccer win or no?

These mental gymnastics get exhausting after a while.”

I didn’t shun Canada Day and thought whoever stole Garth’s flag was a childish, narcissistic, virtue signaling attention seeker. Same with everyone who defaced a statue or canceled fireworks. A pox on them all. But it is nice to see the Canadian athletes (not just soccer, all our athletes are doing a pretty alright job over there) giving the 95% of us who still stand behind our country, blemishes and all, something to cheer about.

“The perfect is the enemy of the good.”

#43 Alberta One on 08.06.21 at 6:36 pm

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says he won’t “take a lecture” from federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu on how to handle COVID-19.

The pandemic response in AB has been called off.

And as a reward for all of the hard work by health care staff you shall receive a 5% rollback in wages.

#44 ts on 08.06.21 at 6:36 pm

What happens when the Canadian rent subsidy and mortgage deferrals expire in the fall? (unless they’re extended again) Will this impact the housing market especially when many landlords will be unwilling to take on tenants again given how unfairly they’ve been treated.

#45 Honest Realtor on 08.06.21 at 6:37 pm

“….. especially as we see a resurgence in population growth moving into 2022”

This will be just the start of a massive wave of immigration. Expect at least 5 million New Canadians arriving by 2035.

Real estate will be golden for decades.

#46 Barb on 08.06.21 at 6:38 pm

Olive is indeed beautiful, and she’s smiling.
Great photo!

#47 Al on 08.06.21 at 6:40 pm

200K with 10% SR lol.26 yrs!!! I guess they could have said $400K with a 5% savings rate for more effect. Or 800K (average GF income) with 2.5% (average cdn savings rate.)

#48 S.Bby on 08.06.21 at 6:47 pm

#23 Yukon Elvis

All that plus the illegal suites (some houses have 2) and undeclared rental income and Airb&b rentals and student room rentals. Some ethnic groups place a high value on property ownership.

#49 Barb on 08.06.21 at 6:47 pm

Bars and pubs have just been ordered closed again in the Central Okanagan (Kelowna etc.)

It appears the Delta variant was partying with all the young folks over the long weekend in July.

#50 cuke and tomato picker on 08.06.21 at 6:49 pm

I feel we should overjoyed with the big win of our women’s soccer team.

#51 Willem on 08.06.21 at 6:51 pm

There is a simple dynamic to our distorted state of our real estate economy. Canada is still one of the more desirable places in the world. Overseas money, despite what our host wants to believe, is still driving the market and will keep driving the market as long as there are less desirable places in the world for money to park itself. Canada has a transparent and sometimes blind justice system, racial diversity/tolerance, natural beauty, space, clean air, clean water, abundant natural and agricultural resources, highly educated population, easily accessible pathways to entry, residence, citizenship, a high degree of social justice, attractive and competitive technology environment.
Our immigrants are also largely contributing to creating the backbone of our business and creative competitive economic activity. I could go on but hopefully this comment will help everyone be reminded of how great this diverse country is and encourage people like Garth to fly our flag at full mast; especially to acknowledge the efforts of our Canadian Women’s Gold Medal efforts!! Never, Never give up on this country to overcome mistakes, challenges and faulty politicians! Cheers, a grateful immigrant from The Netherlands in 1958.
Visit The Netherlands as a Canadian and you will be reminded of being proud to be Canadian by the Dutch and our heroic contributions in the latter days of WW II.

#52 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 6:51 pm

#28 valleyranter on 08.06.21 at 5:52 pm
Scuttlebutt on the ol’ Reddit is that the kids are planning demonstrations in cities across Canada for affordable housing. Will be interesting to see if any politicos chomp at that bit.

August 14th. – Garth

——————————-

Well, another pointless protest. How on earth can the government make housing more affordable, other than to get out of the way and let the builders build?

Given a finite housing stock, there is no way to make a house more affordable for one person without making it less affordable for someone else. Taken to extremes, for every house they force sold to a millennial at an “affordable” price, someone has to be displaced either through eviction and/or forcing them to take less money for a forced sale. As with all things socialism, it is a zero-sum game. Every winner is met by an equal loser. And it doesn’t make it better by forcing all the loses on the “rich”, because you run out of them soon enough and the number of sheep to be fleeced must constantly increase, even if the yield per sheep is rapidly declining.

“Capitalism produces unequally distributed abundance. Socialism produces equally distributed misery.”

#53 Don Guillermo on 08.06.21 at 6:52 pm

#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 4:25 pm
Talking about “summer numb”.
I’m way past numb.
I had it. The heat is frying my brain, the little that’s left.
Donnie G.
How can you stand the Heat in Mechiko?
Never thought I’d say that, but can’t wait for winter.
Oh God, please send rain to wash all the heat away.
And all my sins too, while you’re at it
******************************************
Mexican coastal summers (mid-May to mid-Nov in my area) can be very hot and humid. Some say oppressive. The winters are “usually” perfect. Dry, very few clouds, daytime temps in the mid to high 20’s and nice ocean breezes. Snowbirds living half time rarely lay out in the sun and after a swim go straight to the shade. Full time gringos, if they can afford it, head to high altitude cities for summers. The ones that can’t suffer it out and complain a lot.

The Mazatlán winters are much cooler than most other Mexican beach areas as it is further north. Most 1 or 2 week winter vacationers are looking for the 30+ days to lay around a pool or a beach and typically prefer PV, Cancun, Huatulco Manzanillo, Zihuantanejo etc. I get it. We were the same when on short vacations from hectic and stressful work schedules. The Caribbean was our favorite. Just jump into full A/C or the water when too hot. It’s different when you’re retired and live there. We rarely use our A/C through the winter. It’s a perfect life. Dual residents but not dual citizens ;-)

#54 mark on 08.06.21 at 7:06 pm

what orifice do they pull these numbers out of? anyone who buys a $1.2m property on a $200k salary is completely insane. that will destroy your financial future guaranteed, as you pump every dollar of disposable income in to the mortgage.youll retire with a fat house and nothing else to show for it. just because the bank is willing to sell you a shovel to dig yourself in to a hole doesn’t mean you can actually “afford it” or that it’s a good idea. people who generate these statistics should be shot.

#55 Prince Polo on 08.06.21 at 7:08 pm

When most things (in this case, 98% of GTA’ers) hit the wall, they go *SPLAT*!

The 2% will be alright.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.06.21 at 7:23 pm

@#30 RitchB!tch
“Speaking of class, have you ever noticed that despite your never missing an opportunity to insult and criticize Jane24, she never takes the bait?”
+++
No.
But you did
:)

Remember the Pig Principle.
When you get down and dirty fighting with a pig, you both get covered in crap…..and the pig loves it…..

#57 Winterpeg on 08.06.21 at 7:33 pm

Hey Dolce Vita:
How about the men’s 4×100 relay at the Oly’s.
Italians: gold! (Canada bronze!)
Gold in the men’s 100, and gold in men’s high jump.

#58 DON on 08.06.21 at 7:37 pm

#21 Dave on 08.06.21 at 5:34 pm
Sorry but Garth you have had the same story every few months when real estate slows temporarily!

For well over a decade…same old cycle. Boom….stable…lull…..then BOOM! It’s timeless and again you are wrong.

There numbers for buying a house stopped making sense over 5 years ago but there are just too many people that can afford and do buy.

******
It’s not just Garth saying it this time. And this time everyone is holding their breath. And it is not just Canada. This gasbag needs constant fuel or it falls.

#59 BobCat on 08.06.21 at 7:38 pm

This country will regain its balance once again, only when that manChild in Ottawa no longer has a voice (um, oh, mmm, and…) in parliament and that delusional clown, at the Bank of Canada, no longer directs monetary policy in this country.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 7:51 pm

#34 Tyring to put out fires everywhere on 08.06.21 at 6:18 pm
Another southern B.C. community has been devastated by wildfire. Multiple homes and businesses reduced to rubble as wind-whipped flames advanced on Monte Lake between Kamloops and Vernon overnight.

Okanagan night clubs and bars order closed again.

High-intensity indoor fitness classes in the region ordered shut down Monday.

In local vacation rentals, a maximum of five additional visitors will be allowed.

Dr. Henry stated to not travel in and out of the Central Okanagan for non-essential reasons.
————-
I never understood why Nightclubs and Gyms are essential.
Close’m down.
Do your heavy breathing at home with your mask on.
Much cheaper.

#61 Not Scared Guy on 08.06.21 at 7:51 pm

#1 Lt. Commander Data

“Separately, PHE said another variant, known as B.1.621, first detected in Colombia, had shown signs of evading the immune response triggered by either COVID-19 vaccines or previous infection.”
———————————————

I read that and got an idea and immediately went to check Expedia for my favourite hotel near the Zona T in Bogota and holy crap I couldn’t believe it.

Under $50 a night with breakfast included. It’s usually $200 (so I don’t stay there that often).

Booked a flight and a room immediately.

Checked CDC travel advisory and they say don’t go to Colombia unless you absolutely have to. Awesome, I’ll be the only gringo there.

Have I said how much I love people who buy into media headlines?

Then I checked El Tiempo and I learned that cases and deaths peaked in June, and are on a rapid descent.

Ooops, damn, I shouldn’t have said that, other people might figure it out.

#62 rk n usa on 08.06.21 at 7:58 pm

more taxes in spring?

more goodies I bet

my guess is income splitting for working couples

and more taxes for single earners

#63 rk n usa on 08.06.21 at 8:00 pm

re: #45 Honest Realtor on 08.06.21 at 6:37 pm
“….. especially as we see a resurgence in population growth moving into 2022”

This will be just the start of a massive wave of immigration. Expect at least 5 million New Canadians arriving by 2035.

Real estate will be golden for decades.

they will have to be some pretty rich immigrants

#64 Nobody Has to Sell on 08.06.21 at 8:08 pm

#52 Nonplused

“But eventually everyone has to sell.”

—————————–

Even people who die often leave their house to their kids.

There’s a lot more pressure for people with children to buy a stable place to live than there is for anyone to sell.

Other than severe illness it’s hard to come up with a reason someone has to sell.

Company relocations are rare as they are expensive, and employees often keep their home and rent it out, as they plan to be back.

Meanwhile, people on the sidelines have to constantly worry if prices will continue to rise, if their landlord will fix the leaky roof, if they will be forced to move.

Sellers only worry is where will they go next if they sell?

#65 the Jaguar on 08.06.21 at 8:19 pm

“Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says he won’t “take a lecture” from federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu on how to handle COVID-19.”+++++++

Nor should he. Nor should Hinshaw. The latest gambit of the heel biters is to pressure the Alberta government to release the ‘modelling’ that supports the decision to fully open. I hope they do it. But statistics are tricky. Not because they aren’t reliable, but because when laid out for public consumption it might provide the evidence of exactly who the uncooperative are and where they live. The ones who won’t get vaxxed.

Everyone who got vaxxed was recorded for their demographics address, etc. Don’t think for a minute that it isn’t known who the holdbacks are and where they live. The modelling will show that. Just as the statistics revealed where the case loads were highest, who was most at risk, and what the reasons were for high numbers. You don’t need to be a genius to figure these things out. So be careful what you wish for as you might get it.

On a more positive note, thank you Dharma Bum for sending your son to Alberta to do his part in ensuring no charges were laid against that poor man who shot the home intruder after fighting off an attack with a baseball bat. Red Deer County.

And today I read a report written by a top economist who said that Alberta will lead the country with 7.2% real GDP. Shackleton was right. ‘By endurance we conquer’. Never doubted it.

#66 Father's Daughter on 08.06.21 at 8:22 pm

Even if you are one of the select few who can afford a house in Toronto/Vancouver..the house that you can afford probably sucks. What you get for $2M can be pretty sad. Waiting for the crash of a lifetime.
In terms of good news, Mens 5000m final today was NUTS!
Mo from Niagara silver medalist (second only to the world record holder)..wow..what a run

#67 Alex on 08.06.21 at 8:23 pm

Just for math sake, Garth, 10% saving rate with 200k income will get 200k down in 10 years, not 26. Still a long shot, agreeing.

That’s 10% of after-tax income, obviously. – Garth

#68 IHCTD9 on 08.06.21 at 8:39 pm

#31 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 6:15 pm
It seems to me that average house prices in YYZ and YVR are completely detached from average incomes. Some other factor must explain the prices, because affordability even among the well off cannot.
——-

I ponder this a lot as well. I tend to think there is a lot of second+ house buying going on by homeowners who got a free ride up the equity ladder and can lever their way into multiple mortgages – looking to double down on their gains.

Out in my hood, I see 3-4 dudes together checking out listed houses, also non-locals (gta) piling into open houses. Lots of fix-up and flip going on – tons of this. I’m seeing houses being turned into rental units that have never been such before. I’m sure a lot of multiple person combined resources being pumped into a single mortgage.

Overall, I think everyone and their dog is trying to cash in on RE some way or another. Live in, fix up, sell 2-3 years down the road. Buy junker, fix up, flip. Sever and build. Buy and rent out. Build new and ask for a Mil. Buy and hold. Tear down a junker, build a triplex. My own family has several members playing RE. I see way more of this stuff than young couples/families moving in to start a life.

Cheap rates, easy credit, greed, and a rock solid faith that housing can only go up. If this gas bag ever blows, the fallout will sting every single person in Canada with a mortgage on the books.

#69 Mattl on 08.06.21 at 8:40 pm

#15 Dolce Vita on 08.06.21 at 5:03 pm
Crazy that only a select few can afford a home, bugs and all, in Canada. Maybe this will drop prices then again, it’s a disease so unlikely.

Poor Dr. Garth, your patients prescribe their own reckless medicine and ignore your decades of experience.

Welcome to Planet Canada.

————————————————-

68% of Canadians own their home. Italy, 72%.

I wouldn’t call 68% a select few, and if it is, then 72% is same.

#70 Don Guillermo on 08.06.21 at 8:42 pm

#61 Father’s Daughter on 08.06.21 at 8:22 pm
Even if you are one of the select few who can afford a house in Toronto/Vancouver..the house that you can afford probably sucks. What you get for $2M can be pretty sad. Waiting for the crash of a lifetime
***************************
And then you hang up cardboard for curtains … hmmm

#71 Yorkville renter on 08.06.21 at 9:04 pm

#6 and #12 get it…

#72 mike from mtl on 08.06.21 at 9:18 pm

#31 Nonplused on 08.06.21 at 6:15 pm

So what is driving it? Probably several factors but I think one possibility is that the boomers just won’t sell. The house is far to big for them now as their kids have moved out, but it is their house and they can’t let go. Sure, they are retired or soon to be, but they are holding on to that 4 bedroom inner-city house on a large lot to the very end, preventing redevelopment and forcing those still in the workforce to live further and further away from the downtown core. And why would they sell? Every year it seems the house goes up more than they ever made in a year working.
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Well at least anecdotally here, I agree it is mostly the boomers hanging on the the ‘old’ suburbs. Until the mid 2000s 10-20km was vastly more affordable to the city centre hence the flight to the postwar burbs in 70s-90s. Everything is good weather you stuck around or upgraded since, decades of declining rates help tremendously.

The ‘burbs of today (former exurbs and pasture) where someone can actually buy into are so much farther out it’s almost to the limit of actually being within commuting distance. Tack on draconian zoning laws (SFD or tall Condos), bare minimum infrastructure and public services and you have the hellscape of North American life. Urban generic North America is not practical or conducive to family life as it once was a few generations ago.

The 1950s arrogant style of endless growth, sprawling autoroute exit ‘towns’, new pays for the existing, SFD zoning, high transaction taxes, municipalities near insolvent, and easy lending are mostly the problem.

My own mother will not leave the empty 3b, massive lot SFD unless feet first. Good for her I suppose, but then complaining about the upkeep second job, high property taxes, neighbours – me, sell the dump and get something more manageable. But no, pride and not letting go of the past is very strong.

The situation eventually will work itself out split up and truly urbanised but I won’t be alive for sure to see it.

#73 IHCTD9 on 08.06.21 at 9:35 pm

#45 Honest Realtor on 08.06.21 at 6:37 pm
“….. especially as we see a resurgence in population growth moving into 2022”

This will be just the start of a massive wave of immigration. Expect at least 5 million New Canadians arriving by 2035.

Real estate will be golden for decades.
——- –

This is another thing I ponder. How long, and how high? New immigrants aren’t buying any kind of RE with the 47K the average newcomer brings. Only established Canadians with buying power and assets can get a mortgage. We’re not bringing in 300k millionaires every year. These folks will fuel the rental market, that’s about it.

We already know a huge hhi is required to get a metro sfd, such that Lawyers have been featured here by Mr. T who say they are priced out as a first time buyer.

IMHO, Canadians are so bullish on RE that multi-person efforts are now regularly employed to fund the purchase of a single house. Massive funding is also being pumped into RE via family supporting family. Insane leverage and alt-lenders are not scary either, some paying near 10% just to get in the door.

RE ownership has become cultural in Canada, no one fears a downturn, so any risk and cost is worth it. The whole shebang is running on utter confidence that RE will always, ALWAYS go up. If something happens to shake this confidence – like a price shock with legs, it’s game-over.

That’s saying nothing about the repercussions of a shack in the sticks running over a Mil. What happens when no new Canadian immigrant or youth has a chance in hell of EVER owning a home? I can think of a lot of possibilities, only one of them being good…

#74 NSNG on 08.06.21 at 9:46 pm

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.06.21 at 7:51 pm

I never understood why Nightclubs and Gyms are essential.

Those are mating vectors. To some, that’s essential.

#75 45north on 08.06.21 at 10:28 pm

summer numb

Conclusion: this is not seasonality. It’s delusion. Covid isn’t coming back in the same way to cause more urban flight, FOMO and panic buying. No more lockdowns – they’d be political suicide. 2020 was a fluke. An aberration. A one-off not to be mistaken for a trend. It feels more like we’ve hit the wall.

yep

#76 45north on 08.06.21 at 10:29 pm

IHCTD9 Cheap rates, easy credit, greed, and a rock solid faith that housing can only go up. If this gas bag ever blows, the fallout will sting every single person in Canada with a mortgage on the books.

yep

#77 T-Rev on 08.06.21 at 10:37 pm

Now can we all just agree that a dodge caravan is actually a pretty awesome vehicle? Like I’ve owned everything you can imagine- A loaded out Porsche Cayenne Turbo (for three weeks cause I got it cheap and thought it’d be fun for a bit), ultra compact 3 cylinder sewing machines on wheels, F-350 one ton duallys, late model corvettes (note: not for alberta roads, but if you’re into performance they’re the closest thing most mortals will ever come to a supercar), a plethora of half tonnes from ‘79s-2019s, a small stable of beloved harleys, and a 2011 Caravan. If I had to settle on one vehicle for the rest of my life and life with the ownership costs and utility offerings of just one vehicle it’d be… a half ton pickup, without a doubt, for reasonable cost and excellent utility. But if I couldn’t have a truck, I’d take the Caravan. Decent on fuel. Front wheel drive and lots of weight on the front so they stick to the road in bad weather. 3.8L pentastar engines they been running for over a decade, change the oil every 5km, breaks every 80km, and some really basic maintenance and they’ll get you to 300km+ without much issue. Fold and go seats can fit a full sheet of plywood in. Room for 7 with 4 bucket seats it was the ultimate family road trip vehicle. And for less than $30k well equipped pre-Covid. The definition of a good sensible vehicle.

#78 Mark in Vic on 08.06.21 at 11:53 pm

Anecdotally, family friends who live in West Van said today there have been no offers only one very low one and no other bites for weeks …

#79 Jeff in Vic on 08.07.21 at 12:50 am

“What an awful moment to be a homeless, house-horny Millennial wanting to have a couple of kids, settle down, buy a Dodge Grand Caravan, learn about term insurance and furnace filters and start Googling ‘laser tattoo removal’. Sigh. Adulting. Sucks.”

Best quote ever as this was my wife and I 19 years ago…(Gen X not Millenial…We are on our 3rd Dodge Grand Caravan)

#80 Done like a dinner on 08.07.21 at 1:28 am

Gave up a long time ago. Rarely check anything realestate related. Only come here for the quality dog photos. Plans have made to leave the country. Thanks for the fish.

#81 TurnerNation on 08.07.21 at 2:02 am

Since March 2020. Back to normal…anytime soon right?
We were tricked into 2 Weeks to Flatten the Vunerable and Protect the Curve.
Err I mean Flatten the Curve and Protect the Vunerable.

No Fun allowed…all these months in. Economic Lockdowns anew. Bye small business.
But…the hospital capacity!! Or X% getting a needle?
Doesn’t matter.
We cannot have young healthy people having fun.

.Health officials closing nightclubs and bars, placing limits on gatherings in B.C.’s Central Okanagan(cbc.ca)

#82 Nonplused on 08.07.21 at 2:39 am

#64 Nobody Has to Sell on 08.06.21 at 8:08 pm
#52 Nonplused

“But eventually everyone has to sell.”

—————————–

Even people who die often leave their house to their kids.

——————————–

True, but unless there is only one of them there kids a sale usually results.

My grandmother, bless her heart, outlived my grandfather by nearly 20 years, but stayed in their same house the whole time (the crowning achievement of my grandfather in terms of finance being to pay it off during his working career). But there were six kids. It got sold.

In terms of the “windfall” PR capital gains exemption, I figure my grandfather bought the house for something around $50,000 and then put in a lot of upgrades. 40 years later it sold for $500,000, mostly because the location had become popular. So a $450,000 gain split 6 ways is about $75,000 for each child. Not exactly life changing. This is the sort of money you use to top up your RRSP’s if you haven’t been doing so for years, and maybe buy a new car, but not a Tesla. Maybe a Corolla.

This isn’t the crisis or tax opportunity you are looking for. If Garth’s proposed PR capital gains was applied to the heirs rather than the deceased, i.e. as a sort of “inheritance tax” rather than a “death tax”, it would in most cases be a non-event, other than say in YYZ and YVR. Pretty much all people inheriting $75,000 would pay some tax if it were included in income, and even if included as a capital gain. But it ain’t going to balance the budget.

#83 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 08.07.21 at 4:57 am

#52 Nonplused
#64 Nobody Has to Sell on 08.06.21 at 8:08 pm

“But eventually everyone has to sell.”
—————————–
Even people who die often leave their house to their kids.

——————————

People who die may leave their house to the kids but the kids don’t want the house, they want the cash.

Unless the kid is an only child, there is always the battle over which one keeps the house, who has to buy out the others’ share, and the battles that ensue when one wants to sell and the other doesn’t.

The kids don’t want the old houses in the older suburbs and the small towns.

#84 Under the radar on 08.07.21 at 5:41 am

Just closed a deal for a couple that earns over 300k a year. Paid 2.5 , their mortgage is 1.8 Welcome to servitude.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.07.21 at 8:30 am

Finally.

It rained all last night in BC’s Lower Brainland.

Hopefully the rain is moving into the interior.
They need it more than we do.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.07.21 at 8:33 am

@#80 Tarth Gurner

I assume you “own” 3 houses?
Five?

No no silly me.
Ten.
Or are they just all mortgaged to the hilt?
Let us all know how that works out for you in 2 years.

:)

#87 the Jaguar on 08.07.21 at 8:36 am

Interesting excerpt from a letter to the editor in this mornings NP. Can the last line be a ray of hope? A possible upset? The bit about arrogant rings true to me….
“This is smoke and mirrors from a right that has failed to produce a centre-right vision of Canada that would attract the majority of Canadian voters. Stephen Harper was able to do this; that’s why Canadians delivered him two minority governments, then a majority. Though my memory of him is that he became arrogant after winning a majority. Justin Trudeau is due to find out that Canadians do not do arrogant in politicians.”

#88 Dharma Bum on 08.07.21 at 11:30 am

Human societies develop into tiered hierarchies.
The Indians have their caste system.
The Brits have their social class system.
The Yanks have their wealth class system.
Us Canucks, well, we have, homeowners, home mortgagees, and renters.
Homeowners (those that actually OWN their homes outright) rule the roost. The Canadian Upper Class.
The mortgaged – with some decent equity – are middle class.
The renters are the lower class.
That’s how our society views it.
It’s just the way things are in this backwater of a country.

#89 Sprawl on 08.07.21 at 2:29 pm

Come on Garth! You can’t leave the CMHC Newcomer Mortgage and Shared equity programs out. 18% of all mortgages. $1 million bucks, no stress test mortgage and $100,000 CMHC share Equity. A million bucks is nothing for a Newcomer. These aren’t rich foreign investors distorting real estate, its government policy. For authentic, anthropogenic environmentalists a government which competes for population growth is repugnant. Putting votes ahead of world striving to be naturally in balance. It seems obvious, travel moratoriums have put the brakes on immigration and real estate cost. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/professionals/project-funding-and-mortgage-financing/mortgage-loan-insurance/mortgage-loan-insurance-homeownership-programs/cmhc-newcomers

Mortgage regs are the same for everyone. – Garth

#90 DON on 08.07.21 at 6:33 pm

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.07.21 at 8:30 am
Finally.

It rained all last night in BC’s Lower Brainland.

Hopefully the rain is moving into the interior.
They need it more than we do.

*******

On the island we had a bunch of little showers starting at 11pm ish. Not enough to penetrate under the trees. This am a fire near Chemainus was burning out of control – local state of emergency declared. We need days of west coast rain…but looks like temps are going up again.

A rain dance is needed.

#91 Growth is Good on 08.07.21 at 7:12 pm

#89 Sprawl

Please explain how people moving from one country to another is bad for the environment?

Surely you realize migration causes population to increase in one place and decrease exactly equally in the other right? Right?

In fact, poor people migrating to wealthier countries helps with overall population growth because as they become wealthier populations have fewer children.

Not only that, birth control is easy to get in developed countries, unlike the places they left.