Bubble, meet prick

The sleepy little university city is a hundred clicks from the Big Smoke. Not exactly an easy commute.

But WFH and Covid changed all that. So far in 2021 home sales in Guelph jumped 62% above 2020 levels. Prices increased 32% in a year. Nobody – not a single agent or broker – had ever seen this kind of exodus from east down the highway as GTA virus refugees arrived to Hoover up every listing.

But wait. What just happened?

A classic heritage stone bungalow on one of the best streets – a trophy property – came up for ‘offer night’ a week ago after seven days of showings. The listing agent braced for a bidding war. But total buyers: zero.

Well, the price reductions have started there and, in fact, much of the hinterland hunkered around the metropolis. Meanwhile in the urban core, condo sales have spiked. City rents have started to escalate. And it sure looks like peak house came, and went.

Four months ago a certain pathetic blog told you we were there. Sales levels cannot last, it said. Hold your powder. The pandemic will end. Restrictions will go. WFH will dissipate. And faced with a commute plus the horrible reality of having to find clean underwear and pants on a daily basis, many ex-urbanite Millennials will realize they lived DT for a reason. Cows are nice. But the 401 isn’t.

This week economists at the big green bank admitted to the same conclusion. “March seems to have been the absolute peak of the mountain in terms of activity, a couple of months ahead of what we had anticipated in our outlook released last winter,” says TD.

No kidding. Sales are down 25%. Listings are edging higher. It’s abundantly clear that – as with lumber and puppy prices – the pandemic housing market was unsustainable. It was emotional. Quixotic. Kneejerk. Dripping with recency bias, buyers made unconditional, no-inspection offers in blind auctions, showering speculators in hotbeds like Milton and Niagara with windfall gains while pickling themselves in epic debt.

So why is it ending?

The tougher stress test kicked in, punting another one in ten buyers to the curb. Mortgage rates have stiffened a little, but everyone knows more increases are coming. Covid is retreating and September/October will see the reopening of the downtown bank towers and a myriad of other workplaces. Meanwhile as restrictions and curbs are lifted people are far less consumed with where they live and are returning to normal life. That involves travel, vacations, dining out, sports events, concerts, shopping and pure socialization.

In short, the pandemic real estate fling was just that. Hormonal. Briefly compelling. Obsessive. Enthralling. Vaguely dangerous. Exciting. But ultimately short. And costly.

“Now that sales have begun their correction in earnest,” says the bank, “the interesting question becomes how steep the decline will be.”

You bet. And in some places valuations over time will plunge. Not just in the near-Toronto hick cities, but also in Atlantic Canada, northern BC or southern Saskatchewan. TD forecasts weakness “in Ontario, Quebec, PEI and Nova Scotia,” for example.

“Relatively steep year-to-date sales declines have occurred in places where affordability is more stretched, including Nova Scotia (-32% ytd), Quebec (-20%) and Ontario (-17%). This trend should hold moving forward, leading sales to underperform where affordability is poor by historical standards. Accordingly, relatively steep sales declines are anticipated for 2021 and 2022 (on a Q4/Q4 basis) in Ontario, Quebec and most of the Atlantic Region.”

Hmmm. Tough news for people who just bought properties at peak prices in places where your whole income might depend on a WiFi signal and the benevolence of a remote boss. In fact, look at what’s already starting to happen to prices across the country.

One reason prices are edging into decline is the sales mix. In a word, condos. Not only are cities rustling back to life and urban apartments and townhomes offer exceptional convenience (and no commute) but pandemic housing lust made SFHs completely unaffordable. Suddenly middle-class folks are staring at a $2 million price tag in southern Ontario or the Lower Mainland for what used to be an achievable home. It’s insanity. And unsustainable.

So the condo bargains this blog underscored in November are history now. Prices are up. Rents are up. In Toronto, Vancouver and even Calgary – where the downtown commercial vacancy rate is nearing 30% (but residential vacancies are at a two-year low). In fact sales of Cowtown condos and urban towns doubled in the past year. The demand is coming from students returning to uni, families pushed out of the detached market, smart downsizers and employees sensing the end of remote work.

It will be everywhere soon. And you were foretold.

About the picture: “I read your blog daily. Thank you, it’s very helpful”, says Michelle. “I’m sending this as wasn’t sure if you accepted unsolicited dog pics. This is Winnie. My grand dog. My son adopted her from the pound two years ago.”

133 comments ↓

#1 Adam on 07.30.21 at 3:04 pm

The mass immigration is coming and these people are going to have to live somewhere. Have you seen the house prices in Sweden? I looked at Stockholm to see how much a condo cost. It’s more than Toronto. This is the new norm.

#2 Chris L. on 07.30.21 at 3:13 pm

DELETED. That convo is over. – Garth

#3 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 3:13 pm

Hey, speaking of foretelling, how about this baby from 1 year ago:

‘#62 Sail Away on 07.23.20 at 5:46 pm
An important question for cowboys today is which company will secure Tesla’s giant nickel contract?
I’m thinking BHP and Vale are front-runners.’

BHP and Tesla just reached an agreement.

The mining sector as a whole has been doing very well over the last couple of years. Copper, iron, uranium, gold, nickel… all very nice.

1 year returns for Vale and BHP:
Vale: +90%
BHP: +48%

#4 april on 07.30.21 at 3:13 pm

So Garth it sounds like people are not afraid of huge condo insurance costs/strata costs and more to come…at least in the lowermainland area of BC

#5 Prince Polo on 07.30.21 at 3:23 pm

For the condo market, isn’t the biggest sale still on? Aka, being a “loser” renter in GTA!

#6 Shane on 07.30.21 at 3:29 pm

Out of curiosity Garth, wouldn’t the increase in rental demand cause rental rates to increase, more incentive to invest in rental properties and ultimately prices to increase?

In a land of rich boomers and poor everyone else (vancouver). I feel like a correction entering the double digits isn’t likely in the Lower mainland, aside from maybe the ‘Wack and Hope. Is that a fair assumption, Garth?

Viewing endless open houses over the past few years watching houses being sold as “puppy mills” for students with conditions even a dog wouldn’t sniff at, only to sit empty for months as the owners try to suck every dollar they can out of offers has me thinking there aren’t many people in need to sell and even more people horny to invest.

Luckily this blog has shown a once addictively house horny millennial the life outside of home ownership, albeit a little sour and drawn to ownership still. It’s hard to teach an old-ish dog new tricks, I suppose.

#7 ogdoad on 07.30.21 at 3:30 pm

Garth, quick question:

A family member wants to start investing money instead of the regular brain-dead stuff (inside their TFSA). I’m pretty sure they don’t have enough to reach your minimums so they’re shopping around. Here’s what they found:

CIBC – 1.5% Manag. Fee with 4-6% expected return (mutual funds)

Edward Jones – 1.9% Manag. Fee with 4-6% expected return + 50$ per year for TFSA stuff (no idea)

Is this what they should be expecting? I always thought over a 1% MF was too much?

Thanks in advance, if you choose to answer that is :).

Og

#8 604Sam on 07.30.21 at 3:31 pm

Good doggo :)

#9 T-Rev on 07.30.21 at 3:34 pm

I find the “two year low” vacancy mark in Calgary strange. I mean, rentals have continued to be built, yet there is negative net interprovincial migration, young adults have presumably moved in with their parents at a rate exceeding those leaving the nest due to university cancellation, and there’s been no international immigration. Where are the people coming from? Like actually perplexed and can’t see what could be driving those numbers. Someone help me out here.

#10 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.30.21 at 3:37 pm

If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave theory you will get this ,if not read up.
So if we apply it to the housing market it is clear that we are in the correction phase that follows wave 5.
So we get A down ,B up ,C down sharply ,then it starts going up again which I believe it is a fair assumption with inflation and all.
Now the debate is where are we and what is the impact. Garth seems to be thinking we are in A and a lot of significant more pain will follow . Based on sale stats I am seeing I think we are in C so yes more down but maybe not as much as the harbingers of sharp correction think.
In the end we will see how many truly overextended and have to liquidate in foreclosure and how much will that be mitigated by students coming back and borders reopening.

On a separate note I agree that bid nights are disgusting and should be banned. Unfortunately here in BC this is exactly the process foreclosures go through in court ordered sales. Easy one for our governments to fix and lead by example ,elsewhere we expect from the honest realtors when the government does it.

#11 DIVISION on 07.30.21 at 3:41 pm

In modern society you have no right to jeopardize the health of others by becoming a virus host or by burdending the health care system when there is a vaccine. You are selfish. Or you are a coward. Pick one and let us know. – Garth

But but but…Garth! CDC just said the vaccinated are just as likely to spread as unvaccinated! Now what?

In fact the logic of vaccinated being a bigger liability is actually sound – because vaccinated want mobility, close contact, packed arenas, no social distancing, no masks, international travel with vaccine passports that are likely just travel passports for variants to travel around.

So far from black and white issue you wish to turn this into at cost of personal freedoms and keeping government out of the business of telling me what I need to inject into my body.

So you’re going with selfish? – Garth

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 3:46 pm

#323 CTO on 07.30.21 at 2:13 pm
Sorry for the rant Garth, but you need to ignore these vax people and get back financial therapy for us people who are waiting and waiting and waiting for the tide to change and reality to set in to this strange world run by Central Bankers and ultra liberal governments…
—————-
I assume that you are vaxxed and masked.
Otherwise, I’d find your comment selfish.
As Garth, and many other wise men have said, there will be no stable economy until the bug is beat or tamed.
So, get vaxxed if you have not, wear a mask in public and be nice to your follow citizens.
Sit back and wait.
Your glory days will return.
I pomise.
Your glory days

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 3:48 pm

Bubble, meet prick.
Who’s the prick.
Lots of them here.
Lol.

#14 Joe on 07.30.21 at 3:49 pm

I noticed bidding wars not being successful too on condos and houses in my area but the sellers keep at it and the units sold for way over asking without the bid war nonetheless! Nothings going to get pricked as much as I’d like it too.

#15 jess on 07.30.21 at 3:50 pm

unsustainable insanity : add to the banned entry list?

Two travellers who arrived in Toronto from the United States have been fined for providing fake COVID-19 proof of vaccination documents and lying about pre-departure tests.

The Public Health Agency of Canada says the travellers also didn’t comply with requirements to stay at a government-authorized hotel or to get tested upon arrival.

The agency says in a news release Friday that the travellers arrived last week and have been handed four fines totalling $19,720 each.

#16 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.30.21 at 3:51 pm

#3 april on 07.30.21 at 3:13 pm
So Garth it sounds like people are not afraid of huge condo insurance costs/strata costs and more to come…at least in the lowermainland area of BC
≈===========
My crystal ball says that desperate people make desperate decisions as a last resort.
After being evicted every year or sometimes twice yearly due to side effect of rent controls imposed by the province ( evict tenant charge 20-50 % more) or paying a fortune for tiny spaces soe people throw in the towel and decide to YOLO it and buy a condo.
Not sure if you are familiar with Vancouver and Burnaby rentals but most places have a bedroom where you may fit a single or if lucky double mattress ,a living room/ kitchen combo where you choose between a dining table for 2 or a love seat and laundry outside or at a laundromat. All of this for 1.5K for a 1 bdrm to 2.5K for a 2 bedroom monthly.
This is now ,before the return of the Students and the plague known as AirBnB.
The Valley is a more affordable place for rentals (basement suites to be fair) but with house prices going up some 10+% in the last 3 months ( not a typo) expect rents to increase there as well.

#17 Dolce Vita on 07.30.21 at 3:51 pm

Canada May GDP down -0.3% after -0.5% in April.

2nd Quarter Italia the economic engine of the major EU economies:

+2.7%

Germany +1.5%
France +0.9%

Smaller economies did well too, e.g.,: Portugal +4.9%, Spain +2.8%.

Italia worried inflation soaring at 1.8%.

No exodus in Italia to the burbs or hinterlands, a home is just a home here and not a Retirement Strategy.

Small increase in home prices, 2.11% June year over year, use Google translate, scroll to €/sq.m. chart also by Region (includes rents):

https://www.immobiliare.it/mercato-immobiliare/

#18 Linda on 07.30.21 at 3:55 pm

In Alberta, specifically Calgary, Covid cases are edging upwards post Stampede. Not a surprise. Despite this the UCP government has declared folks testing positive for Covid will no longer be required to self-isolate. Plus the intent is to lift any remaining Covid restrictions by mid-August. This was a surprise to the provinces doctors, who had no doubt thought that with cases edging upward restrictions would remain in place. In BC, restrictions are being reimposed due to a spike in cases in the Okanogan region. Which not coincidentally is where a lot of visitors end up.

Noticed during shopping for groceries today that traffic volumes were way up. So too were the numbers of shoppers in the grocery stores & farmers markets. While some of that is likely due to the fact the August long weekend is here, looked like folks have decided that normal is back.

#19 cuke and tomato picker on 07.30.21 at 3:55 pm

Virtually everyday we walk the waterfront walk in Sidney
B.C. at least once a day looking out at the Sidney Spit,
Mt Baker, Sidney Island, James Island etc. We often meet people from Alberta and Ontario who express a serious
interest in moving here because of the mess these two provinces are in now.

#20 Dave on 07.30.21 at 3:57 pm

In Metro Vancouver people are still paying $200k above list price.

90% of the people reading this blog want to know one thing….How big of a correction in GTA and Metro Vancouver.

How much and timeline….

Do you still believe that maximum correction is 10 to 15% of peak price?

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 4:03 pm

#332 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 2:43 pm
Well, ignoring this goofy talk about corvids and vacciniums, I am happy to report that blackberry season has begun on the island.

Now all dog walks include a picking bucket. A couple easy liters a day for the next 1 1/2 months will accumulate massive quantities of berries to see us through another hard winter.

I greatly enjoy the deep satisfaction from hunting and gathering. Almost feels instinctual.
————-
Not a hunter, but I like foraging and picking (especially on misguided posters).
This years blackberry is great.
Usually, too much heat dries them out.
These berries are full of fibre and antioxidants, and best of all, there free!
What’s good for a Grizzly, is good for me.
Unfortunately, our secret spot has been demolished by an evil RE developer.
So, on to find another secret spot.
Getting harder to find.
Damn the developers.

#22 Quintilian on 07.30.21 at 4:03 pm

#1 Adam on 07.30.21 at 3:04 pm
“Have you seen the house prices in Sweden? I looked at Stockholm to see how much a condo cost. It’s more than Toronto. This is the new norm.”

No worries Adam, don’t be too hard on yourself, everyone makes mistakes; sounds as though you made a big one.

Sweden? That country north of the North Pole the size of a Canadian city park?

I don’t know how you can claim “This is the new norm”.
There are thousands of cities on planet earth, with less than zero mortgage rates, positive population growth, yet only a few cities are in a massive bubble and mostly in Canada. WHY?

You might want to check your realtor’s sales manual for a canned explanation.

#23 Don't talk about it on 07.30.21 at 4:05 pm

Wonder what narrative is being served by not talking about these facts from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html

#24 Dave on 07.30.21 at 4:05 pm

4th Covid wave is coming

Bank will repeat history….reduce rates to stimulate economy…we are merely in a small real estate blip. Time to buy real estate at slightly cheaper prices

The CB rate is not going down. – Garth

#25 steve on 07.30.21 at 4:05 pm

Canada’s largest insurer just announced their back to work plan.

2 days a week.

I guess that is a “diminish”.

I’ll take it, along with their DB pension plan.

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:07 pm

@#19 Cuke
“Virtually everyday we walk the waterfront walk in Sidney
B.C. at least once a day looking out at the Sidney Spit,”

+++

I still think D’Arcy Island would make a great Quarantine zone…
You could wave to them….

#27 Faron on 07.30.21 at 4:07 pm

#3 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 3:13 pm

If you don’t also tell us about your losses post facto, we can’t judge if your picks are worth a damn. All we have to go on is that your cowboy port performs similarly to your wife’s B+D. So, you are hiding your failures out of ego/convenience.

#28 Ed on 07.30.21 at 4:10 pm

#19

I have a boat in Sidney enjoying the Canadian archipelago that’s why I’m here. Being Albertan means I can afford it.

I noticed you mentioned you were walking.

#29 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 4:16 pm

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 3:48 pm

Bubble, meet prick.
Who’s the prick.
Lots of them here.
Lol.

———-

I see you were absent the day they handed out subtlety.

#30 wallflower on 07.30.21 at 4:17 pm

Delectable Winnie.
I wanna schnorfle with her.

#31 Ballingsford on 07.30.21 at 4:19 pm

I’ll never understand why someone would want to buy a condo as their primary residence.

#32 zee on 07.30.21 at 4:19 pm

Garth what you are saying is not happening.

While sales are lower for SFH, prices are not in the GTA.
As for your condo call, well Prices are sliding last 3-4 months.

Not sure what data you have to support what you are saying.

#33 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.30.21 at 4:20 pm

#20 Dave on 07.30.21 at 3:57 pm
《》
Do you still believe that maximum correction is 10 to 15% of peak price?
=========
Oh , I would say that is a given and a normal correction part of an upside trending market.
I think most people predict/expect a 20-25% down from peak while the truly eternal dreamers hope for 50% .
Note that even a 25% correction will put prices above the 2016 levels ,you need about 40% to come below that .
Ofcourse all RE is local and places seen as more desirable will correct less or not at all ,as usual there are 3 rules of financially successful RE purchases
1) Location
2) Don’t buy in a place you cannot drive to in 1hr. or less from a major city.
3) keep total housing costs at 30% of net income

Why 2016 you wonder ? Well 5 years is a nice rounded number and the usual mortgage term .

#34 Dolce Vita on 07.30.21 at 4:23 pm

Well, Garth you almost got your 70% all vaxd 12+ yrs of age. So far at the CTV Vax Tracker, Friday, July 30, 2021 3:45PM EDT:

65.87%

I Projected 67% with the prior day 7-Day average vax rate, my bad, the vax rate free falled AGAIN yesterday:

https://i.imgur.com/FSYsDHL.png

Oh well, came close.

Have a great August Long Weekend Canada (you too Florida, I mean Alberta).

#35 R on 07.30.21 at 4:23 pm

Jim Cramer tweeted today that since Feb 2021, Texas has had 9,000 covid deaths, of which 43 were vaccinated. Stunning stats. Most likely there could have been medical complications also with the 43 vaccinated. Eg age, heart etc. more reason to get the jabs

#36 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 4:25 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:07 pm
@#19 Cuke
“Virtually everyday we walk the waterfront walk in Sidney
B.C. at least once a day looking out at the Sidney Spit,”

+++

I still think D’Arcy Island would make a great Quarantine zone…
You could wave to them….
—————-
Good idea.
We could keep them until they swear off their love for Rodeos, F-150s, Trump and Cowboy attire.
I don’t mind if they hold on to their fondness of Ralph Klein.
I liked the guy, too.
We need more guys like him in politics.

#37 Toronto_CA on 07.30.21 at 4:31 pm

Just went to the office for the day for a senior finance leadership strategy session.

Our Dear Leader declared we would only need to come in for similar meetings once every two weeks. No value in WFO for our functions. Teams and working from home very productive, and while there is value in getting everyone in person it’s not something that needs to be daily or even weekly.

We are hardly outliers as Deloitte said the same thing.

WFH is the future for office workers, not just the present.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 4:32 pm

#28 Ed on 07.30.21 at 4:10 pm
#19

I have a boat in Sidney enjoying the Canadian archipelago that’s why I’m here. Being Albertan means I can afford it.

I noticed you mentioned you were walking.
—————-
In #29 I forgot to mention, we should confiscate all their material possessions until they learn some humility, and thank God there is a place like Vancouver Island, that is tolerant of even people like Sailo.

#39 JMM on 07.30.21 at 4:32 pm

Our humble host continues to try to impose his views on WFH against reality. Let’s see what reality says.

“LinkedIn To Allow Most Employees To Work Remotely, Reversing Course” (Slashdot, July 29th)

“Twitter, Facebook, Google among major companies changing return-to-office plans amid delta variant spread” (CNBC, July 29th).

Let’s see this last item, specially regarding Facebook:

“Workers whose jobs require them to be onsite are advised to report to the office half of the time for the foreseeable future. Everyone else at all levels across the company can request to work remotely full-time after the pandemic.”

Lovely. Most shocking: many people work from home with clean clothes. Those “dirty hippies” attitude brings back memories.

#40 Pylot Project on 07.30.21 at 4:34 pm

There is definitely an election coming, or has it already begun? Yesterday, I came across a 1/2 page Liberal Candidate ad in my local community rag.

I promptly used the page to line my organics bin.

#41 The real Kip (Ret) on 07.30.21 at 4:36 pm

Yea well, Dr. Teresa Tam was just on the news saying 4th wave is coming. She was just on, just now, really.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:36 pm

@#28 Ed
“Being Albertan means I can afford it.”
+++

Actually lots of British Columbians have boats.
Being Albertan means you’re just crass enough to brag about it…….

#43 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 4:36 pm

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 4:03 pm
#332 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 2:43 pm
Well, ignoring this goofy talk about corvids and vacciniums, I am happy to report that blackberry season has begun on the island.

Now all dog walks include a picking bucket. A couple easy liters a day for the next 1 1/2 months will accumulate massive quantities of berries to see us through another hard winter.

I greatly enjoy the deep satisfaction from hunting and gathering. Almost feels instinctual.

——–

Not a hunter, but I like foraging and picking (especially on misguided posters).
This years blackberry is great.
Usually, too much heat dries them out.
These berries are full of fibre and antioxidants, and best of all, there free!
What’s good for a Grizzly, is good for me.
Unfortunately, our secret spot has been demolished by an evil RE developer.
So, on to find another secret spot.
Getting harder to find.
Damn the developers.

——–

You are always welcome to join a foraging/gathering weekend in Nanaimo. The next big one is planned for the mid-August pink salmon run. That’s when the year’s supply of pickled salmon gets put up…

There is so much available food here that we concentrate on gathering rather than growing our own. Cherries, huckleberries, blackberries, mushrooms of all types, salmon, trout, bottomfish, deer, moose, grouse, rabbits, pheasants. And of course… Costco.

#44 Ken on 07.30.21 at 4:38 pm

From 1989 to 1996 prices in the GTA fell 30-40%. This, in spite of falling interest rates and increasing immigration levels (look it up yourself at statscan).

1989 marked an unaffordability level exactly like 2021. When interest rates rise, and government largesse ends, there will be few left to pay these ridiculous prices — look out below!

#45 Felix on 07.30.21 at 4:41 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats have 4 rows of whiskers. They can move the top 2 rows independently of the bottom 2 rows.

Sir Isaac Newton invented the cat flap because his cat, Spithead, kept pushing the door open when he was conducting experiments that needed darkness.

Cats can make over 100 vocal sounds.

#46 Oakville Rocks! on 07.30.21 at 4:41 pm

Take me out to the ball game.

The boys of summer are back on this side of the border.

LETS GO JAYS!

#47 Felix on 07.30.21 at 4:42 pm

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

Cats have 4 rows of whiskers. They can move the top 2 rows independently of the bottom 2 rows.

Sir Isaac Newton invented the cat flap because his cat, Spithead, kept pushing the door open when he was conducting experiments that needed darkness. So cats make smart humans even better geniuses.

Cats can make over 100 vocal sounds.

#48 BC from Ontario on 07.30.21 at 4:43 pm

I recently arrived in BC from Ontario for one reason only: more temperate climate.

I came in spite of the absurd politics here because I am retired and pay very little tax anymore.

Hell, I might even start voting NDP. Gimme more of that free stuff! If ya can’t beat ’em, join ’em.

#49 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 4:45 pm

#27 Faron on 07.30.21 at 4:07 pm
#3 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 3:13 pm

If you don’t also tell us about your losses post facto, we can’t judge if your picks are worth a damn. All we have to go on is that your cowboy port performs similarly to your wife’s B+D. So, you are hiding your failures out of ego/convenience.

——–

You tell me. You’re tracking the buys I post.

I think there’s one that’s down of the dozens posted, and a few have increased by multiples.

I’ve led you to the water several times, but you just sh!t in it and insult the patient mentor.

#50 BC from Ontario on 07.30.21 at 4:47 pm

Oh, and cherries are $1.99 a pound.

Worth it for that alone.

Gas at $1.65 a liter really sucks though. I’ll fill my boat up in Point Roberts when it opens again.

#51 Russ on 07.30.21 at 4:49 pm

Hey Dogs, good boy.

Asking for a little help here, in the buying discussions of March 2020 I acted on two notable suggestions, IPL & Village Farms.

Great advice and I offer a belated thanks.

Anyhow, on the IPL file there is a heated competition between Brookfield and Pembina.

Dogs, what say you?

Cheers, R

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:51 pm

Hmmm
Another reason to get a Vaccine….criminal liability….

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/07/30/criminal-charges-covid-19-infection/

#53 Faron on 07.30.21 at 4:53 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:07 pm
@#19 Cuke
“Virtually everyday we walk the waterfront walk in Sidney
B.C. at least once a day looking out at the Sidney Spit,”

+++

I still think D’Arcy Island would make a great Quarantine zone…
You could wave to them

Dude, lay off D’Arcy. One of my fave easy weekend getaway spots. Give them James or Cabbage. Cabbage Island sounds appropriate now that I mentioned it.

#54 4th Wave on 07.30.21 at 4:53 pm

Looks every day like a 4th wave is inevitable. That will be a disaster for business and likely restart the real estate market. Canada learned nothing from watching our US neighbors. Politicians have ignored the science table and medical warnings about opening too quickly. US modeling indicates a huge spike by October. Hmm it’s not over.

#55 cuke and tomato picker on 07.30.21 at 4:56 pm

Number 28 Ed thanks for the positive feed back. I know all about boats my wife’s family is in the tug boat business they have multiple pleasure boats no problem enjoying the Gulf Islands for 53 years. Remember to tell all the people in wonderful Alberta that you are having nothing but pleasure and enjoyment when you visit beautiful British Columbia.

#56 Faron on 07.30.21 at 4:58 pm

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 4:03 pm
#332 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 2:43 pm

Looking forward to lots of blackberries during the first few days of an upcoming bike tour. Then it will be over the hills and off to the desert where berries are few and far between, but other treasures await.

#57 Investor Time on 07.30.21 at 5:02 pm

House price in Toronto and Vancouver will fall at least 30%, it will start early September, if your thinking of buying now wait. Patience, sentiment will change quickly in the fall. People think interest rates will never increase and everyone will buy all the properties again when things open back up, take the other side of the trade, once September starts the housing news in Toronto will get worse with each upcoming month.

#58 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 07.30.21 at 5:14 pm

To all the inbred southern hillbilly anti-vaxxers who bombarded this blog this week – keep your selfish psychopathic stupidity in Oakville and don’t put our health care resources at risk this weekend.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#59 Vaccine Passports on 07.30.21 at 5:15 pm

Watch the push for vaccine passports get dropped as soon as the lefties realize they would be required for voting too.

Because you know, demanding ID or a passport to vote is ‘voter suppression’.

#60 Doug t on 07.30.21 at 5:16 pm

I’ve been praying for a huge correction – would LOVE to see a 25% slash and burn in Victoria

#61 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.30.21 at 5:22 pm

BEWARE THE IDES OF NOVEMBER!
The Jesuit Principle ,”If you have the child, you have the man.” The rational being, overtime they can be trained (brainwashed) to follow the holy doctrine. So much like Wall Street. Which has promoted the fallacy that the Fed will never let the market go down. It is an
article of secular faith supported by 13 long years of ceaseless intervention/stimulus all in the service of elevating the stock market. In this secular religion nothing else matters, and all that old stuff is, just a distraction, price earnings, ratios, valuations, cash flow, future earnings_ none of that old stuff matters. Technical analysis is also a waste of time. Just keep buying the dip and rotate into what’s hot and the millions just pile up on their own. We’re finally at the summit of euphoric confidence, where faith in the Federal Reserve is literally a religious experience. And best of all, new devotees are joining the cult daily. What these newly minted wanna be millionaires don’t understand is they’re the the marks and bag holders. Wall Street has been waiting patiently for retail to go all in so the pros can sell all the over-valued stocks to the euphoric trusting retail traders, who will continue to buy the dip and rotate into the next hot stock until their fortunes have dwindled to spare change. That’s how accounts are destroyed, and the wreckage isn’t just financial. The scars of being a bag holder can last a long, long time. Once again “Beware The Ides Of November.” Come November, look for Nostradamus to show up and say “I told you so.” I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#62 crossbordershopper on 07.30.21 at 5:27 pm

I was born and raised in guelph till uni. Trust me, it takes FOREVER to get anything approved in Guelph. Your kids will finally get a permit to construct.
land is all controlled, and between the city dragging there feet, limited land, and immigrants prices will stay high always high in Guelph.
its a nothing city in my option, i remeber the bus driver in the 80’s driving back from Hamilton Uni saying final stop is Guelph. He didnt know why anyone lives there, just a University and a few factories. His words. not mine. but i nodded to myself. Not much has changed in 35 years. sure a little more population, but little economic activity.
a million dollar condos downtown along the mighty speed river. I dont understand, that is the ward area. which was a dump back then, old war time homes, etc., now there million dollar condos.
everything is snapped up very quickly like in a week. I dont know which overpriced home Garth was commenting on. my father gets weekly mail from everyone and his realtor brother who wants to buy his house. He said they can have it, when he leaves in a box.
some people say real estate has no liquidity, well when you have parents who have been in the same house when Trudeau one was just elected you have ZERO liquidity.

#63 Double Dip Recession on 07.30.21 at 5:28 pm

It is baked in the cake now.

CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated.

The new data, published in the U.S. agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, also found that fully vaccinated people who get infected carry as much of the virus in their nose as unvaccinated people.

“This finding is concerning and was a pivotal discovery leading to CDC’s updated mask recommendation,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said in a statement.

And the recent decisions in Alberta: RIP Alberta.

Ottawa just extended benefits through October to smooth over the election time as they know what is coming. Once Trudeau gets back in the pain at the consumer level will begin.

I don’t think the next term and next wave will see as much stimulus. This is why it will be more painful. Obviously pay attention to the stimulus coming down the pipe.

It was 8 months ago I posted a “what if” scenario. That “what if” scenario is playing out in real time. Risk on.

And when the facts change you have to pivot. 4th wave, stimulus ending going into winter.

Inflation won’t be the worry for much longer.

And you wonder why RE is slowing down. It could flat out crash given what is setting up right now. RE markets are stalling everywhere in Canada.

The only question that remains is how much more money printing to offset this Tsunami of main street pain coming?

Don’t say in 6 months time that nobody saw this coming.

Regarding the CDC report, 274 vaccinated people were infected. 270 recovered, 4 were hospitalized. None died. The vaccine worked. – Garth

#64 Leftover on 07.30.21 at 5:32 pm

In the pricier parts of YVR sales to new listings are now under 30% and there’s more than 7 months inventory.

Both statistics are worse by half than they were a couple of months ago.

Pricked Bubble? Maybe
Screeching Halt? Definitely

#65 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 5:35 pm

#28 Ed on 07.30.21 at 4:10 pm

I have a boat in Sidney enjoying the Canadian archipelago that’s why I’m here. Being Albertan means I can afford it.

——–

I started planning sailboat trips around Sidney as night passages to avoid the multitudes of giant blue and white yogurt cups blasting wakes like the parting of the Red Sea.

Favourite spots to wait out the daylight are Sidney Spit on the one side and Deep Cove on the other.

#66 R...IP on 07.30.21 at 5:35 pm

#35 R

Jim Cramer tweeted today that since Feb 2021, Texas has had 9,000 covid deaths, of which 43 were vaccinated. Stunning stats. Most likely there could have been medical complications also with the 43 vaccinated. Eg age, heart etc. more reason to get the jabs

/////////////////

When you have pre-existing condition and get Covid unvaxed and die, they count you as “Covid death.”

When you have pre-existing condition and get Covid vaxed and die they count you as “Natural causes death” or “pre-exciting condition death.”

#67 Alberta: Biggest Error in History By Leaders on 07.30.21 at 5:36 pm

Alberta has called off the pandemic. It is now over in Alberta. Everything is back to normal.

Nurses and other front line health care workers are getting a 5% wage cut.

Alberta is forecasting a $24.2 billion deficit this year.

The above sounds almost like a sick joke, but unfortunately it is real.

This is what you call staring into the abyss.

#68 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 5:41 pm

#56 Faron on 07.30.21 at 4:58 pm
#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 4:03 pm
#332 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 2:43 pm

Looking forward to lots of blackberries during the first few days of an upcoming bike tour. Then it will be over the hills and off to the desert where berries are few and far between, but other treasures await.

——–

Great trout fishing in the Thompson if you hike down the tracks 30 minutes from any public access. Lots of wild asparagus along the tracks in the spring.

#69 Not Fooled on 07.30.21 at 5:43 pm

#19 cuke and tomato picker on 07.30.21 at 3:55 pm
Virtually everyday we walk the waterfront walk in Sidney
B.C. at least once a day looking out at the Sidney Spit,
Mt Baker, Sidney Island, James Island etc. We often meet people from Alberta and Ontario who express a serious
interest in moving here because of the mess these two provinces are in now.

*******

Wear a tomato in your lapel next time, and I’ll wave from the front yard.

Maybe leave the cuke at home; that could be weird.

#70 Double Dip Recession II on 07.30.21 at 5:46 pm

Regarding the CDC report, 274 vaccinated people were infected. 270 recovered, 4 were hospitalized. None died. The vaccine worked. – Garth

____________________________________________

The vaccine definitely helps. Imagine what this new variant does to someone without any immunity? Huge risk at this point to anyone not vaccinated.

A confidential CDC document said delta is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, MERS and SARS.

The point is that this ain’t good for the economy, which is why I am forecasting a double dip recession that is going to hit RE hard in Canada and the feds are going to do everything possible to secure the next election before this hit takes hold – hence extending benefits into October as of today. But thereafter is where is gets “interesting” regarding a financial crisis.

#71 Not Fooled on 07.30.21 at 5:48 pm

#66 R…IP on 07.30.21 at 5:35 pm

When you have pre-existing condition and get Covid unvaxed and die, they count you as “Covid death.”

When you have pre-existing condition and get Covid vaxed and die they count you as “Natural causes death” or “pre-exciting condition death.”

*********

I’m intrigued. By “pre-exciting conditions ” do you mean dinner and drinks? A romantic movie and stroll on the beach? Can 5 pin bowling really kill you? I guess if you took one of those balls in the head, it would definitely rule out any “post-exciting” conditions, though.

#72 Word on the street on 07.30.21 at 5:51 pm

Tons of anecdotal information that Canadian real estate has rolled over. In fact it started rolling over 3 months ago. Look at lumber futures.

The ongoing data released on Canadian real estate will be in line with this. The curious want to see how deep the rout will be.

BOOM!

#73 Nonplused on 07.30.21 at 5:53 pm

#31 Ballingsford on 07.30.21 at 4:19 pm
I’ll never understand why someone would want to buy a condo as their primary residence.

———————————-

Agreed. Apartments are something that should be rented not owned.

But the reasons for renting an apartment are compelling for certain portions of the population. If you are young, have no kids, work downtown, and value mobility and freedom, renting an apartment is the way to go. Or if you are old, the kids have moved out, and you simply don’t want to do yard work or home maintenance anymore, apartments also fit the bill.

#74 cuke and tomato picker on 07.30.21 at 5:54 pm

Re D’Arcy yes been there done that too multiple times
happy others are enjoying this island too. The charmed life.

#75 Re-Cowtown on 07.30.21 at 6:00 pm

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:36 pm
@#28 Ed
“Being Albertan means I can afford it.”
+++

Actually lots of British Columbians have boats.
Being Albertan means you’re just crass enough to brag about it…….

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I really like Alaska too. Think of it as BC, but run properly….by Albertans.

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 6:17 pm

#74 cuke and tomato picker on 07.30.21 at 5:54 pm
Re D’Arcy yes been there done that too multiple times
happy others are enjoying this island too. The charmed life.
—————-
Cukey.
You and you wife (which I assume you call Tomatoy)
are very lucky living in Vancouver Island, probably on of the best places to retire in.
If the vultures from Alberta and the East come for your property, make sure you make them pay.
Never understood why Billy Bob did not like Victoria.
Sure, there are bums and homeless.
But Florida has lots of them, too.

#77 Russ on 07.30.21 at 6:18 pm

Faron on 07.30.21 at 4:53 pm

Dude, lay off D’Arcy. One of my fave easy weekend getaway spots. Give them James or Cabbage. Cabbage Island sounds appropriate now that I mentioned it.

==========

D’Arcy Island is a natural for the less-vaccinated.

It has history…
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/darcy-island-leper-colony

See, there is alot that colonialism should be proud of.

Alienating people who don’t agree with a popular viewpoint or are different in health is old. Kinda like how we should be treating someone who is not vaccinated…

Cheers. R

#78 Proud CERBian on 07.30.21 at 6:39 pm

COVID benefits extended!

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2021/07/government-extends-covid-19-benefits-and-business-supports-to-support-stronger-economic-recovery.html

I love my country!

All Hail CERBia!

#79 devore on 07.30.21 at 6:51 pm

#51 Russ

IPL has been such a solid performer for many years, will be sad to see it go. The first offer was downright insulting, actually read it twice to make sure I got it right and that it wasn’t a joke.

#80 yvr_lurker on 07.30.21 at 6:51 pm

It is likely true that those who moved to what Garth would label the hinterland, and bought properties at elevated prices will regret it when they have to make even a few trips to the week to the office. However, prices will not come back to 2019 levels. It does effectively shut out many who could otherwise afford to live in these places on a more midling income (Courtenay, Langford, Nanaimo, Kamloops come to mind here).

However, iif one has followed this blog for a decade and based on the information provided decided to forgo buying something decent (and I am not talking about a 500sq ft condo) in YVR and the Fraser Valley when a slim opportunity was still present, they are (in my view) in a much more precarious place than if they had stretched themselves. Immigration will increase dramatically (they are not moving to the hinterland in general) and the pressure on both rents and property values in YVR will continue unabated.

#81 WTF on 07.30.21 at 6:55 pm

#75 “Think of it as BC, but run properly….by Albertans.”

Yes Its clear, We should follow the lead of Alberta if we want to make something of ourselves. If Albertans ran the country we would have a puffed up sense of our navel gazing selves. Not much more.

Never mind you happen to live on a pool of oil that you conflate with git er done can do smarts. How’s it going these days? Kenny, the carpet bagging professional politician wonder boy got it all fixed yet?

No effing water and you all want to live in BC. Otherwise Alberta is a nice place TO DRIVE THROUGH on the way to somewhere interesting.

Yeeee Hawww

#82 DON on 07.30.21 at 6:57 pm

#10 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.30.21 at 3:37 pm
If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave theory you will get this ,if not read up.
So if we apply it to the housing market it is clear that we are in the correction phase that follows wave 5.
So we get A down ,B up ,C down sharply ,then it starts going up again which I believe it is a fair assumption with inflation and all.
Now the debate is where are we and what is the impact. Garth seems to be thinking we are in A and a lot of significant more pain will follow . Based on sale stats I am seeing I think we are in C so yes more down but maybe not as much as the harbingers of sharp correction think.
In the end we will see how many truly overextended and have to liquidate in foreclosure and how much will that be mitigated by students coming back and borders reopening.

On a separate note I agree that bid nights are disgusting and should be banned. Unfortunately here in BC this is exactly the process foreclosures go through in court ordered sales. Easy one for our governments to fix and lead by example ,elsewhere we expect from the honest realtors when the government does it.

*********

Have you factored in the Cascade Effect?

#83 david on 07.30.21 at 7:04 pm

The Central Bank publicity engine in full gear…trying to reassure the populace…they must be reading your blog Garth

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/tiff-macklem-the-bank-of-canada-remains-firmly-committed-to-keeping-inflation-under-control

#84 DON on 07.30.21 at 7:06 pm

#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 3:48 pm
Bubble, meet prick.
Who’s the prick.
Lots of them here.
Lol.

********
I hear people yelling Prick all the time when I am in traffic driving.

#85 the Jaguar on 07.30.21 at 7:10 pm

@#18 Linda on 07.30.21 at 3:55 pm

Hey Linda. Don’t know if you caught this 12:21 interview with Dr. Deena Hinshaw, but the interviewer (Jim Brown) doesn’t pull any punches with his very direct questions. I think she holds her own. Grace under pressure. Following that interview is one with the ‘former’ Chief Medical Officer, Dr. James Talbot which provides a bit of a ‘rebuttal’ or sorts. It’s about 8:13 minutes. Here’s the link:
https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-97-the-homestretch

My ‘read’ on what’s going on is that it’s become clear that those who wished to be vaccinated have stepped forward. The most vulnerable people ( the aged, those with medical conditions) were at the front of that line. We have a lot more information about who is likely to suffer more serious complications, and it isn’t kids. They need to get back to normal development .

If you’ve been fence sitting, the removal of protocols should help you make up your mind. When 95% of new cases are diagnosed are the ‘un-vaccinated’, it should be a giant wake up call. And if you are fundamentally opposed and nothing is going to change your mind or gain your cooperation, then it is unreasonable to expect the rest of society to be held back on your behalf. Dharma Bum put it very eloquently in a recent post.

Of course Alberta is taking a lot of censure and condemnation. Wouldn’t be normal day without something to blame Albertans for…..
But somebody has to lead. “Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon ’em.”

This little movie clip feels like a metaphor for this brave move. It will be familiar to many. If you watch it, just think of the guy climbing the wall out of the Covid Pit as ‘Alberta”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5zdmA7HSoE

#86 Why imagine? on 07.30.21 at 7:16 pm

#70 Double dip

“Imagine what this new variant does to someone without any immunity?”
————————————-

Why imagine? The data is out there in the UK.

On July 14 they were averaging 37,000 new Delta cases each day. (Vast majority are unvaccinated obviously).

Two weeks later on July 29th, deaths are averaging 75 per day.

Sound worse than previous variants?

The last time the UK had 37,000 new cases daily was January 18th.

Deaths two weeks later? 1,122 each day.

Instead of listening to the idiot box, just do some basic research.

Or else you’ll end up selling your stocks cheap to someone who has done their homework.

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 7:21 pm

78 Proud CERBian on 07.30.21 at 6:39 pm
COVID benefits extended!

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2021/07/government-extends-covid-19-benefits-and-business-supports-to-support-stronger-economic-recovery.html
I love my country!
All Hail CERBia!.
—————————n
I know you are a sarcastic ignorant person.
And probably not vaxxed and a Trump supporter.
Here’s a single mother with 2 teenagers that hit some hard times , and says that CERB kept her from becoming homeless.
———————-
Nicole Menzies, a single mother of two teenage boys, has no doubt. Without the federal COVID-19 income support programs, “I would have been homeless,” she says.
Menzies says she’s been through eight months of on-and-off unemployment after her income as a restaurant manager and server dropped to 10 per cent of her usual pay at the start of the pandemic. Throughout that time, it was only thanks to the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and then enhanced Employment Insurance (EI) that she was able to keep a roof over her head and food in the cupboards, she says.
——————-
There is some real hardship out there.
CERB is not going to end, until we get the bug under control.
So, get vaxxed and help out at the Food Bank, rather than posting stupid comments.

#88 CJohnC on 07.30.21 at 7:27 pm

#78. Hail CERBia

Well that certainly cements the Sept election date. T2 transparently buying votes, but the buying ends Oct 23.

#89 DON on 07.30.21 at 7:30 pm

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.30.21 at 6:17 pm
#74 cuke and tomato picker on 07.30.21 at 5:54 pm
Re D’Arcy yes been there done that too multiple times
happy others are enjoying this island too. The charmed life.
—————-
Cukey.
You and you wife (which I assume you call Tomatoy)
are very lucky living in Vancouver Island, probably on of the best places to retire in.
If the vultures from Alberta and the East come for your property, make sure you make them pay.
Never understood why Billy Bob did not like Victoria.
Sure, there are bums and homeless.
But Florida has lots of them, too.

*********

Victoria is a great place to live if you are retired and can get and keep a doctor.

If you have to venture out for work it is a highly congested on the weirdly mapped out roads. It has become so expensive to live there and businesses were encouraged to raise their wages by the local chamber of commerce.

Crime is on the rise and soon the homeless will start living in Saanich and Sydney.

#90 VicPaul on 07.30.21 at 7:30 pm

#23 Don’t talk about it on 07.30.21 at 4:05 pm

Wonder what narrative is being served by not talking about these facts from the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html

*********
From the CDC:

“There are notable differences by race and ethnicity, as shown by combined data from 2017-2019:

6 states had an obesity prevalence of 35 percent or higher among non-Hispanic White adults.
15 states had an obesity prevalence of 35 percent or higher among Hispanic adults.
34 states and the District of Columbia had an obesity prevalence of 35 percent or higher among non-Hispanic Black adults.”
—–
Obesity is a known co-morbidity in numerous diseases…is this news to you?
Surely you weren’t suggesting that Covid-19 is racist…

The malignancy of race-baiters is spreading it’s cancer to us all – reject this BS.

M57BC

#91 DON on 07.30.21 at 7:37 pm

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 4:36 pm
@#28 Ed
“Being Albertan means I can afford it.”
+++

Actually lots of British Columbians have boats.
Being Albertan means you’re just crass enough to brag about it…….

**********
Yup… In Port Alberni you see a truck and a boat in a lot of driveways. It is a thing when you live near the coast.

#92 Dr V on 07.30.21 at 7:38 pm

22 Quintilian

“There are thousands of cities on planet earth, with less than zero mortgage rates, positive population growth, yet only a few cities are in a massive bubble and mostly in Canada. WHY?”

Most housing affordability studies only examine some developed western countries, but according to the link below, the reality for much of the world is that housing affordability is much worse for them

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_current.jsp

#93 RE_Investor on 07.30.21 at 7:41 pm

#72 Word on the street on 07.30.21 at 5:51 pm
Tons of anecdotal information that Canadian real estate has rolled over. In fact it started rolling over 3 months ago. Look at lumber futures.
The ongoing data released on Canadian real estate will be in line with this. The curious want to see how deep the rout will be. BOOM!

lol, yes I’ve been waiting for the crash since my last RE purchase in 2018. I buy on any dip, so the deeper the dip the better. yeah, and I’m not timing the market, just dollar cost averaging on a larger scale.

#94 DON on 07.30.21 at 7:51 pm

#70 Double Dip Recession II on 07.30.21 at 5:46 pm
Regarding the CDC report, 274 vaccinated people were infected. 270 recovered, 4 were hospitalized. None died. The vaccine worked. – Garth

____________________________________________

The vaccine definitely helps. Imagine what this new variant does to someone without any immunity? Huge risk at this point to anyone not vaccinated.

A confidential CDC document said delta is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, MERS and SARS.

The point is that this ain’t good for the economy, which is why I am forecasting a double dip recession that is going to hit RE hard in Canada and the feds are going to do everything possible to secure the next election before this hit takes hold – hence extending benefits into October as of today. But thereafter is where is gets “interesting” regarding a financial crisis.

*******
Better to seek a majority if the horizon is foggy.

#95 Salutations Sally on 07.30.21 at 8:01 pm

Looks like a loyal Winnie is waiting patiently for her master to come home.

#96 DON on 07.30.21 at 8:11 pm

#83 david on 07.30.21 at 7:04 pm
The Central Bank publicity engine in full gear…trying to reassure the populace…they must be reading your blog Garth

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/tiff-macklem-the-bank-of-canada-remains-firmly-committed-to-keeping-inflation-under-control

*****
Actions speak louder than words. But then again everything is transitory.

#97 Trojan House on 07.30.21 at 8:24 pm

When are they bringing UBI in? I have a feeling I may need it soon.

#98 Annek on 07.30.21 at 8:33 pm

Stats:
1)STUDY RANKS VANCOUVER “THE UNHAPPIEST CITY” IN CANADA. (604now.com)
2) Rain falls for 192.4 days per year in Vancouver

All this back and forth in this blog about BC versus Alberta or Ontario.
It seems like Vancouver is a dismal place to live.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 8:37 pm

@#84 DON
“I hear people yelling Prick all the time when I am in traffic driving.”

++++

You live near Ponzie?

#100 Covid isn't racist on 07.30.21 at 8:41 pm

#90 VicPaul

“Obesity is a known co-morbidity in numerous diseases…is this news to you?
Surely you weren’t suggesting that Covid-19 is racist…”
————————–

Of course not. Even in this crazy world I didn’t think that was a thing. Is it? Dios mio.

No, Covid isn’t racist, and it also doesn’t have a preference for killing people of any political stripe, much to the dismay of the tolerant, love trumps hate gang.

The obesity angle isn’t news to me either, but it is to a lot of people. It sure didn’t make headlines day after day.

Political correctness might have caused a segment of the population that really should have been more careful to not even know they were in a high risk group.

But at least the obese (and I am not skinny, trust me) are making it to magazine covers and being celebrated as healthy.

Now I am going out for a run. I need to lose 40 pounds. Fast. If CNN says fat is healthy, I know what I have to do.

#101 Russ on 07.30.21 at 8:43 pm

devore on 07.30.21 at 6:51 pm

#51 Russ

IPL has been such a solid performer for many years, will be sad to see it go. The first offer was downright insulting, actually read it twice to make sure I got it right and that it wasn’t a joke.

=====

Thanks devore,

I am such a small fish in this takeover drama but I actually got a phone call from the Brookfield call centre. I thought , “WTF”. Good to know I can just stand pat on IPL.

Doing less is what I do best. :)

Cheers, R

#102 Hank Sinker on 07.30.21 at 8:44 pm

It looks like the phony push for a “recovery”, just in time for a glorious majority election is what’s fizzled. Pathogen 1. Cheerleaders 0.

Globally, 4th Wave Covid infections on the rise. Hopeful recovery porn, on the wane. Our Great Joe Experiment by the Democrat Tech and Loot for the Camera has resulted in more cases rising and a second recession looming as countries clamp down again. There isn’t enough headline bombast space to save The Joe and Justin BFF ruse .

#103 Shakabra on 07.30.21 at 8:48 pm

Can’t speak to Guelph and goings on there, but GTA is still rising.

A home just sold near me for $1.3M. This was an old times bungalow in a nice area. Turns out the buyers close in 4 weeks and plan on GUTTING the house and putting on an addition.

So yeah…

What a definitive statistic. You really crushed it. – Garth

#104 Say what??!!?? on 07.30.21 at 8:50 pm

#22 Quintilian

“There are thousands of cities on planet earth, with less than zero mortgage rates, positive population growth”

——————

Really? Can you name even 5? How about 1? Less than zero mortgage rates? Um I’m calling BS.

I’ve owned property in a few different countries and rates were 12% plus, within the past 5 years.

I have to admit, saying realtors are to blame and central bankers are not is right out there with the Sasquatch is real people.

Pretty amusing, but, you don’t really believe that do you?

Realtors are annoying as all get out. But controlling a major part of the economy? Hilarious.

#105 Quintilian on 07.30.21 at 9:19 pm

103 Say what??!!?? on 07.30.21 at 8:50 pm
“Really? Can you name even 5? How about 1? Less than zero mortgage rates? Um I’m calling BS.”

Real rates have been negative for a long time.

#106 DON on 07.30.21 at 9:53 pm

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 8:37 pm
@#84 DON
“I hear people yelling Prick all the time when I am in traffic driving.”

++++

You live near Ponzie?

*******

Good one. Interesting twist.

Hey did u hear they replaced a section of up and down ladders on the West Coast Trail with a 113 meter suspension bridge over Logan Creek. Making the trail a little easier.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 10:07 pm

Wow!
Our “Finance” Minister ( with zero financial credentials) has announced that CERB benefits will be extended from Sept 27 til Oct 26th.

Gotta make sure the voters receiving CERB dont think about their expiring benefits until at least a month AFTER the election…..

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 10:15 pm

Anyone see the news footage of the Afghanistan comedian who was executed by the Taliban yesterday?
Apparently the Taliban killings for anyone involved in the 20 year UN war is already in the hundreds.. .

As Canadian bureaucrats dither, deflect and dawdle over HOW and (more importantly) WHEN they will get Afghani interpreters and their families out of the death trap that Afghanistan will become in a few weeks or a month for ANYONE that helped Canadian Troops stay alive.

It’s nice to see the Trudeau loathing for all things Military has moved into the latest generation.

I’m sure the “spin” from the Liberals will be epic as Canadian Military interpreters are rounded up and shot

Remember this at election time.

#109 Honest Realtor on 07.30.21 at 10:17 pm

Very cute, Garth.

Except you seem to have forgotten the impact that over 5 million immigrant families will have on real estate over the next 10-15 years.

With increased ability for remote work, Guelph and other markets will have less to worry about than you think.

Real estate remains the best investment the world has ever known.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 10:18 pm

@#106 DON
“Hey did u hear they replaced a section of up and down ladders on the West Coast Trail with a 113 meter suspension bridge over Logan Creek.”

++++++

Whaaaaat?
No more rotten ladder rungs?
No more broken cable cars?
Damn! Its so unfair.
Just a breezy walk across a suspension bridge…..
Pffft.
Boomers had it way harder……

:)

#111 Upenuff on 07.30.21 at 10:19 pm

#106 Don
Hey did u hear they replaced a section of up and down ladders on the West Coast Trail with a 113 meter suspension bridge over Logan Creek. Making the trail a little easier.
____________________________________________

Old news, so now, so many ebikes on Whistler hardcore trails, (where regular semi pro riders bust a lung) to get up too and are now bumping into out of shape weekend warriors causing delicate trails to erode….. progress, hey pass that over here, I always eat when I’m depressed!
Upenuff

#112 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 10:20 pm

#91 DON on 07.30.21 at 7:37 pm

Yup… In Port Alberni you see a truck and a boat in a lot of driveways. It is a thing when you live near the coast.

———-

Everybody knows all the rich people live in Port Alberni.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.30.21 at 10:30 pm

@#112 Sail Away

“Everybody knows all the rich people live in Port Alberni”

+++

VERY few people that own pleasure boats….are rich.

#114 Doug in London on 07.30.21 at 10:34 pm

In short, the pandemic real estate fling was just that.
————————————————————-
This time around the time tunnel has whisked me back to the tech bubble, 21 years ago in Y2K.

#115 Mithan on 07.30.21 at 10:43 pm

A few months ago, in Regina everything was selling.. Now home sit on the market. In Winnipeg, the few homes on the market went way over bid, now they are going for asking and starting to go under, this is in prime area like Charleswood.

Stupidity almost over…

#116 Shakabra on 07.30.21 at 10:45 pm

What a definitive statistic. You really crushed it. – Garth

Thanks man.

#117 DON on 07.30.21 at 11:04 pm

#112 Sail Away on 07.30.21 at 10:20 pm
#91 DON on 07.30.21 at 7:37 pm

Yup… In Port Alberni you see a truck and a boat in a lot of driveways. It is a thing when you live near the coast.

———-

Everybody knows all the rich people live in Port Alberni.

********
In the 60 and 70s it was amoung the weathiest communities in Canada. Many retired well off before the the 80’s downturn.

Not the same place now…but there is a new Forest products operation open again after the fire. Great place to live if you love the outdoors and can find a decent job. The for lease store front signs were a problem prior to Covid…looked very very quiet.

But they still got their fishing boats and a day on the water fishing is blissful. Great place to pick up a collectors car as well. Old garages containing treasures.

#118 Friar Truck on 07.30.21 at 11:09 pm

#7 ogdoad on 07.30.21 at 3:30 pm
Garth, quick question:

A family member wants to start investing money instead of the regular brain-dead stuff (inside their TFSA). I’m pretty sure they don’t have enough to reach your minimums so they’re shopping around. Here’s what they found:

CIBC – 1.5% Manag. Fee with 4-6% expected return (mutual funds)

Edward Jones – 1.9% Manag. Fee with 4-6% expected return + 50$ per year for TFSA stuff (no idea)

Is this what they should be expecting? I always thought over a 1% MF was too much?

Thanks in advance, if you choose to answer that is :).

Og

__________________________________________

Sorry, Garth was indisposed … he was too busy picking up dog poo instead of answering your question. He said I can answer you on his behalf.

Don’t invest with Edward Jones. They put me in GE and Yellow Pages (yes them …depending on your age, you may have never seen a real paper phonebook.) I questioned it at the time, then convinced myself that I went to manage my money, so I did not put up a big fight.

Guess how well these turned out … before I ended up firing them, the damage had been inflicted. BTW, the offices sell product that is recommended to them by their back office … from which they reap a considerable reward. (Not unlike other companies who also do that!)
* * * * *
“A stockbroker is someone who invests other people’s money until it is all gone.” — Woody Allen

#119 Kindred Sole on 07.30.21 at 11:11 pm

#9 T-Rev on 07.30.21 at 3:34 pm

I find the “two year low” vacancy mark in Calgary strange. I mean, rentals have continued to be built, yet there is negative net interprovincial migration, young adults have presumably moved in with their parents at a rate exceeding those leaving the nest due to university cancellation, and there’s been no international immigration. Where are the people coming from? Like actually perplexed and can’t see what could be driving those numbers. Someone help me out here.

_________________________________________

Which way did you come in?

#120 mike from mtl on 07.30.21 at 11:22 pm

RE will be fine, falling sales or not not a single penny has dropped ‘values’. I truly wish a real market was at work but no, low rates and QE forevermore.

Not really funny but get ready for an Autumn lockdown, mass media already preparing us. Better hope you don’t own a bar, commercial RE or a restaurant.

WFH will be further cemented this 2022 season. COVID fixes all issues apparently.

#121 Garth's way or the highway? on 07.30.21 at 11:29 pm

#11 DIVISION on 07.30.21 at 3:41 pm
In modern society you have no right to jeopardize the health of others by becoming a virus host or by burdending the health care system when there is a vaccine. You are selfish. Or you are a coward. Pick one and let us know. – Garth

But but but…Garth! CDC just said the vaccinated are just as likely to spread as unvaccinated! Now what?

In fact the logic of vaccinated being a bigger liability is actually sound – because vaccinated want mobility, close contact, packed arenas, no social distancing, no masks, international travel with vaccine passports that are likely just travel passports for variants to travel around.

So far from black and white issue you wish to turn this into at cost of personal freedoms and keeping government out of the business of telling me what I need to inject into my body.

So you’re going with selfish? – Garth

_____________________________________________

Garth, your arrogant attitude is probably what causes people like DIVISION to not want to participate. Is he a coward because he is afraid of … a needle poking him. Perhaps, but unlikely.
Is he jeopardizing others? I thought people got the vaccine so that they didn’t have to concern themselves with being exposed to the virus. Is he selfish because he is burdening the health care system? Perhaps, but what about the hundreds of thousands that smoke cigarettes and cause significantly more strain on the healthcare system (twice as many die from smoking related illness than COVID)?

Before you do your usual DELETE routine because you don’t agree with someone, I’ll let you know that I am NOT an anti-vaxer and that I am fully vaccinated. Why not let your brilliance rather than your arrogance shine through on your blog?

Or perhaps it is you that is not open to discourse of any sort that conflicts with your views?

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.31.21 at 12:06 am

“A stockbroker is someone who invests other people’s money until it is all gone.” — Woody Allen
———————
Woody Allen, very funny man.
Probably speaks from experience.
Maggie Thatcher had a similar quote about Socialists.

#123 I'm Alright Jack on 07.31.21 at 12:38 am

Faron, Sailaway etc.
You guys (?) do know that the Himalayan blackberries that frequent the Lower Braindead and VI hippidome are an invasive species, right? Not too hard to find – they are everywhere.

The North American variety of blackberry you would hardly notice, or find (but they are good to eat, if you can actually find them).

#124 David Greene on 07.31.21 at 12:51 am

Garth:

I have a quick RE question. I know someone who recently sold his house. The buyer was a realtor. I was kind of shocked when he told me that the buyer would get his half of the commission, even though he only brought himself to the table as a buyer.

What’s your opinion on that? Do you think that’s ethical?

#125 Triplenet on 07.31.21 at 2:01 am

#43 Sail away

I highly doubt there are any moose out and about rural Nanaimo.
However, sasquatch, yeti and boogie men are known to be lurking in the local forests, but rarely photographed.
I don’t think they’ve ever been seen out on the water in their fishing boats. Those are Ogopogo’s.

#126 CM on 07.31.21 at 7:38 am

We’ve been looking to buy in Nova Scotia for over a year. We’ve got money there’s just very few decent listings within an hour/hour and a quarter of Halifax outside of what I’ve considered the real estate crazy zone (30 mins or so from Halifax). I’m permanently remote now but planning for the worst and needing employment at some stage in the future around Halifax. Something like 20%+ of the population claimed CERB/CRB. Questions I ask myself: Could part of the reason sales are down in NS be market gridlock? Will the end of CRB free things up a bit? We’ve been close a few times. Sellers remorse where they backed out. (our agent hasn’t seen that in 30 years) Others we’ve outbid by over 100k. Laughable. We’ll probably be overpaying but we’re not (completely) crazy – sticking with the rule of 90 and sensible borrowing amounts. Can’t compete with out of province cash/sight unseen/no conditions buyers. Maybe what I’ve considered to be our bad luck will end up working in our favour as time goes on. As long as our landlord doesn’t boot us out. Strange times.

#127 Sheesh on 07.31.21 at 9:02 am

#121 “I thought people got the vaccine so that they didn’t have to concern themselves with being exposed to the virus.”

——————

You thought wrong. It’s to end the pandemic, which would be of benefit to everyone.

#128 Sail Away on 07.31.21 at 9:36 am

#123 I’m Alright Jack on 07.31.21 at 12:38 am

Faron, Sailaway etc.
You guys (?) do know that the Himalayan blackberries that frequent the Lower Braindead and VI hippidome are an invasive species, right? Not too hard to find – they are everywhere.

———

Yep. Delicious, too.

A question: the grizzlies that now live on VI near Woss and Campbell River- native, natural expansion, or invasive?

https://globalnews.ca/video/2964714/grizzly-bears-appear-for-the-first-time-on-vancouver-island

#129 Dharma Bum on 07.31.21 at 11:12 am

This particular bubble might be pricked soon, bet there are endless balloons behind it ready to be reinflated immediately.
As far as Canada is concerned there is no super appealing city to live in other that Toronto or Vancouver. Maybe (just maybe) Calgary – but it’s fickle.
As Canadians, we tend to downplay the appeal of Toronto or Vancouver because the basis of our comparison is a crazy high standard of world class cities like NYC, SF, LA, CHI, Paris, London, Amsterdam, Berlin, etc.
The immigrants that flock here from the hellholes they are fleeing in China, India, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, etc., think of Canada as the ultimate paradise where the government showers you with free money, everyone is welcoming, racism is illegal, there are no natural disasters, and life is free.
Canada is an immigrant magnet that will insure that cities like Toronto stay jam packed and super high price for time immemorial.
If any one is waiting for house prices to drop in Toronto over the long run, you’re in for a rude awakening.
It will only get increasingly expensive over the coming decades, prick or no prick.

#130 DON on 07.31.21 at 12:35 pm

#128 Sail Away on 07.31.21 at 9:36 am
#123 I’m Alright Jack on 07.31.21 at 12:38 am

Faron, Sailaway etc.
You guys (?) do know that the Himalayan blackberries that frequent the Lower Braindead and VI hippidome are an invasive species, right? Not too hard to find – they are everywhere.

———

Yep. Delicious, too.

A question: the grizzlies that now live on VI near Woss and Campbell River- native, natural expansion, or invasive?

https://globalnews.ca/video/2964714/grizzly-bears-appear-for-the-first-time-on-vancouver-island

************

About 10 years ago…an acquantance ran the Grizzly Bear/whale tours from Telegraph Cove on VI. He was charging $200 a shot to take people to the mainland to see grizzlies. A grizzly was living down the beach coast from telegraph cove.

#131 Don on 08.01.21 at 12:53 am

#61 NOSTRADAMUS

” Beware the Ides of November”- Can you please tell me what is going to happen when the market opens on Monday? November is a lifetime for me.

#132 jenna on 08.01.21 at 10:55 am

The 4th Wave…is coming with out doubt. The fall/winter season will be. The crowds of summer, masks off, carefree attitudes have consequences.

The consequence is delta variant. Just take a look at the states…Canadian borders are open for business…and there are no vaccine passports.

Oh Canada the 4th wave is coming :(

#133 SI2K on 08.03.21 at 10:54 am

We fled the Annex to Guelph in 2016. The Go to Union is far nicer than the TTC from Bathurst to Union, and Go service is only getting better, faster, and more frequent from here.

There were forces driving people out of the GTA far prior to COVID. The TDSB is a big one — literally knocked down the high school our kids would have gone to, now zoned for condos. Stagnant salaries and a lack of promotions are another. No child care available, even if you’re standing there with $30K in your hand. Far before COVID, the GTA became a “man camp” — a place for single people/or those with no dependents who pretty much only work.