Get over it

Recently I collided with a woman who wanted me to build her a high-octane, growth-oriented, all-equity, no-safety-net portfolio. How come, I asked. “Because I’m young,” she said. “It’s what you’re supposed to do.”

Well, she didn’t make the cut as a client. And while the common wisdom in the money business is that investors with a long runway can shoulder a lot of risk while wrinklies should cower in fixed income, it’s wrong. Paleo thinking. Big mistake.

Since we all inhabit the same world, portfolios should be built for the times in which we live. Age is moot, as we’re all subject to identical risks and conditions. The pandemic is still hanging around. Interest rates have collapsed and have only one direction in which to head. Debt – public and private – is epic. Trump’s coming back. Markets are at record highs. China’s getting testy. Machine learning is about to transform the nature of work. At the same time there are yummy record corporate earnings, a big post-crisis expansion and growth-hungry CBs. It’s a complicated world.

So if somebody shares my two main goals: (a) don’t lose money and (b) get a decent rate of return, the portfolio makeup should be dictated by the world. Not the client’s birthdate. Meanwhile, rock-bottom rates mean no retiree (unless they have a few million) can afford to sit on risk-free, interest-bearing stuff and live off the yield. Moreover, people now live f-o-r-f-r-e-a-k-i-n-g-e-v-e-r so the biggest risk is outliving money. Not losing it. (How many times have I said that?)

In short, invest for the times. Not your emotions. This bring us to William.

“Warm greetings and sincere gratitude for the blog!” he says. “MSU: daily reader for about 7 years now. I love the blog, quote you obnoxiously to family and colleagues and resonate with many of your values.”

Bill is now 66, retires next week and, like most Boomers, he’s hate-worthy. Non-registered account of $1.3 million plus an equal amount in registered stuff and a paid-for condo that would sell for eight hundred. Here is what he’s done:

Five years ago I read about ‘sequence risk’, did some homework, and implemented a strategy of ‘declining/inclining equity glidepath’: I gradually reduced equity exposure (reduced, not eliminated) from 65% to 20% at present in order to protect the nest egg from sequence risk (i.e. no time to recover from bad bear market years) leading up to retirement. I intend to gradually ramp up the equity exposure of our portfolio over the first 5 years of retirement.

He asks what I think of this strategy. Over five years how much of a portfolio should be in growth assets who may be approaching seventy? Is this a sound way of managing risk? “I believe there are a TON of soon-to-be-retirees in Canada who have NOT thought seriously about sequence risk,” he says. “Apologies if this suggestion for a post sounds vaguely like a request for free financial advice…”

Of course it does. And that’s what this blog is all about – pumping out suggestions gratis so the Nobel Laureates and noted macroeconomists in the comments section can trash them. Oh well, here we go anyway.

Bill’s $2.6 million invested 80% in fixed income assets like bond funds will yield GIC-type returns. That 2% will give him about four grand a month which may be enough to live on. But it will also be equal to current inflation, and certainly fall behind it over time – especially since half will come from a taxable account. And since living in a big city in retirement ain’t nirvana on fifty grand a year, he may be tempted to nibble away at some of the principle. Okay, that’s a strategy. But life could be better.

What could he expect from a 60/40, with the fixed component being 26% bonds (govy, corps & provs), 13% preferreds and 1% cash? The ten-year average is 7.1% with 2020 yielding 7.5% and 2019 at 15.2%. Yes, an all-equity portfolio would deliver more, but with increased volatility and risk. Through the entire Covid mess, this mix has performed in a far more stable fashion than the equity markets. In other words, after professional fees (0.85% for a portfolio of that size, tax-deductible on the non-registered part) Bill’s bank account could be seeing monthly deposits of about $13,000. And in a far more tax-efficient form.

Oh yeah, and the principal is preserved. That’s because this guy has twenty years or more to live and nobody knows what lies ahead. Could be oxygen and a nursing home. Could be an Aventador SVJ Roadster.

The key is to strip emotion (usually fear) out of investment decisions. If you can’t do it, turn the job over to someone who can. Not an amateur. Look at the never-ending stream of comments to this blog about looming market crashes, pending recessions, certain collapses, deflation, hyperinflation, mass death and general mayhem/apocalypse. People have been posting them for the last 13 years. Never. Happened. As I keep saying, corrections – even big scary ones – are temporary. Recoveries and expansions are long. This one just started. Invest and fuhgeddaboudit.

So, Bill, get chilled by sequence risk if you want. But you’ll regret it.

About the picture: “This is Bella,” she writes. “My sister moved down to Mexico last fall and felt secure with her Canadian Shepherd dog.  Bella was her spirit dog and soulmate.  She kept my sister safe and was loyal to a fault.  When Bella was at our house she couldn’t enjoy herself but would wait by the door for a sight of her master’s car. She passed away under mysterious circumstances in Mexico.  She was fine and then literally dropped dead.  My sister is devastated.”

141 comments ↓

#1 Blacksheep on 07.27.21 at 4:20 pm

Faron # 95,

“Correlation ain’t causation, but this certainly is strong supporting evidence (level 5) that Trump has a chunk of the responsibility to bear.”
———————————
Could it be possible that the people that think the way Trump thinks, would react to the new suggested vaccines, in the same negative fashion…

Even if Trump never existed?

I don’t think Trump ‘converted’ many people to the dark side, he just unapologetically told the media and them what they wanted to hear, because they were already thinking it, long before he became their messiah…

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 4:21 pm

Sad about Bella.
A friends dog died last year the same way.
Healthy as a horse and then died.
Vet checked the dog.
It ate wild Mushrooms

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 4:25 pm

@#104 Slanty Semi
“That’s poking fun at the phrase. That’s an attempt to belittle the people who have come up with a more accurate phrase.”

+++

Some people might find your blog name racist…….

#4 mj on 07.27.21 at 4:28 pm

I agree with you that we will have a long expansion, but we could have a small correction before the expansion starts. When CERB ends in September, it will give us a better idea how the economy is

#5 Aloneinthepark on 07.27.21 at 4:32 pm

Question for the bearded one: would an ETF with only Canadian dividend stocks be as tax efficient in a non reg account as holding said stocks individually?

Mucho thank yous in advance

Yes. – Garth

#6 Slim on 07.27.21 at 4:33 pm

Of all the bad things that could happen, the thought of Trump coming back scares me more.

#7 greyhound on 07.27.21 at 4:35 pm

Age is moot, as we’re all subject to identical risks and conditions.
In a world where no one ever makes investment mistakes, OK. But a young person has maybe a 1/2 century to recover from a screwup. Wrinklies, not so much.

Screwups are self-inflicted. – Garth

#8 Ballingsford on 07.27.21 at 4:38 pm

Funny and sad in this post. Really sad about Bella! Funny when you said Trump is coming back. Maybe he should move to Canada and try his luck here.

#9 Alberta Ed on 07.27.21 at 4:38 pm

Bill should turn the job over to someone who can. We did and it was one of the best decisions we ever made.

#10 erik mtl on 07.27.21 at 4:39 pm

60-40, even for millennials who are nowhere (yet) near the multimillions of Billy Boy? Without any data to back me up, something like 70-25-5 (you know what the “5” is) feels better, and more in line with the current times for the younger folk. 60-40 kind of feels like boomer thinking..

Sure. Go high-risk, lose some money and never invest again. That’s the pattern. I see it daily. – Garth

#11 Andrewski on 07.27.21 at 4:43 pm

I’m not sure how many financial planners like Garth just give away great information such as this!?

#12 Sara on 07.27.21 at 4:43 pm

#6 Slim on 07.27.21 at 4:33 pm
Of all the bad things that could happen, the thought of Trump coming back scares me more.
=====================
Same.

#13 Eco Capitalist on 07.27.21 at 4:46 pm

My investment guy talks about using a 3 year cash wedge when I retire. Needed with a 60/40 or just sidelining money that could otherwise be invested?

#14 Mike on 07.27.21 at 4:48 pm

.
Why are people bothering with stocks?

Just buy in lower Brainland. 5% down, 95% someone else money.
Value doubles every 5 years.
Tax free.
Stock market is no match, especially someone is giving 95% of money to buy.

#15 Sara on 07.27.21 at 4:50 pm

“Bill is now 66, retires next week and, like most Boomers, he’s hate-worthy. Non-registered account of $1.3 million plus an equal amount in registered stuff and a paid-for condo that would sell for eight hundred.”
================

By describing Bill as “like most Boomers, he’s hate-worthy” aren’t you implying that most Canadians in the 55-74 year age range have similar net worth?

#16 Matt on 07.27.21 at 4:54 pm

Balanced portfolio for those with 20-30 years time frame till withdrawals doesn’t seem appropriate currently. I’d go 80/20 or 90/10.

#17 SnowOwl on 07.27.21 at 4:56 pm

I am a Pulitzer price winner, not a Nobel laureate, Garth!
What percentage are you allocating to EMs in your equity section?
Thanks

#18 Victor V on 07.27.21 at 5:01 pm

Apple demolishes earnings expectations with iPhone sales surging nearly 50%

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/27/apple-aapl-earnings-q3-2021.html

#19 DON on 07.27.21 at 5:03 pm

#6 Slim on 07.27.21 at 4:33 pm
Of all the bad things that could happen, the thought of Trump coming back scares me more.

**************
It would be a strangely interesting Whitehouse race…the Dems would have to recruit The Rock to beat him…

#20 Master Blaster on 07.27.21 at 5:10 pm

“Trump’s coming back.”

There now, don’t get my hopes up! That’s a dream come true!

#21 Jack Farley on 07.27.21 at 5:14 pm

Biden told reporters that the White House is weighing a requirement for federal workers. “If you haven’t gotten the vaccine by now then you’re not nearly as smart as I thought.”

I gotta admit, that was a good one.

Anyways, the point being that there is bad news regarding the pandemic that most people are overlooking and China is completely whacking tech.

This is setting up for a massive meltdown that is looming and I think this is the big one that most people thought was going to hit the housing market last year.

I can feel it in the air.

#22 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.27.21 at 5:22 pm

STOPPED CLOCK!
Some people are suggesting I am a stopped clock, because I’m always going on and on predicting a crisis for the overindebted. And therefore, I’m eventually going to be right at least twice a day. In defense, I understand the dynamics at play. Because I question the monetary policy and artificially low interest rates, doesn’t mean I’m a stopped clock. All it means is that I have a healthy appreciation of what can happen to the overindebted when the world becomes a very dark place. When things do blow up I will once again be called a stopped clock in that no legitimate forecaster or economist could have ever possibly seen it coming. I am having dark thoughts centering around rows and rows of bankers lined up waiting to take the overindebted out to debtors prison. I am on my throne and I will not step down.

#23 Stone on 07.27.21 at 5:22 pm

Trump’s coming back.

———

I spoke to the greasy hamburger Trump ingests daily. Greasy hamburger says not a chance in hell if it has its way with him.

So yeah…I’m not worried. Who would stand against a greasy hamburger? That’s right. Not me and not you.

#24 Stone on 07.27.21 at 5:28 pm

I gradually reduced equity exposure (reduced, not eliminated) from 65% to 20% at present in order to protect the nest egg from sequence risk (i.e. no time to recover from bad bear market years) leading up to retirement. I intend to gradually ramp up the equity exposure of our portfolio over the first 5 years of retirement.

———

Reading the above felt like a kick to the nuts. B&D all the way to the day I die. The peace of mind it provides is priceless. Honestly Bill, WTF are you thinking?

B&D ytd return currently sitting at 15.97%. Thank you very much!

#25 Madchild on 07.27.21 at 5:35 pm

Hey Garth:

I just paid $1,400 for a rental car in BC for 3 days.

Anyone else noticing a massive uptick in rental car prices and hotel booking prices?

#26 Barb on 07.27.21 at 5:36 pm

Exactly! I’ve felt only massive relief since I talked hubs into jettisoning the high fee mutual funds and letting Garth (actually Sinan) work their/his magic.
Condolences on the suspicious passing of beautiful Bella.

#27 Steve french on 07.27.21 at 5:47 pm

These days when I open the CBC news website for an update on Canadian and world events, it’s nonstop Woke articles. From reading CBC, everyone is a racist, everyone is a sexist, and don’t mention all the other forms of horrible exclusionary behaviour.

The politics of identity and division. The media is hooked on it because it all just produces more controversy that leads to clicks to pay a meagre wage for the army of millennials and post-millenials producing this trash content.

ITs as if the Woke left media just wants to tear Canada down… relentlessly.

I come to greater fool for some much needed sanity in an increasingly bizarro world.

Garth- are you sure you won’t run as an independant MP again?

#28 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.27.21 at 5:51 pm

Interesting…

Garth, can you please clarify if you always aim to preserve principal 100% in someone like Bill’s case ($1 – $2 million, about to retire), or do you agree to allow principal to decline over time if someone has no one to leave it to, and wants to have a higher standard of living (but not run out in case of emergency)? How flexible is your approach?

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 5:52 pm

@#25 Madchild
“Anyone else noticing a massive uptick in rental car prices and hotel booking prices?”
+++++

At the risk of beating a dead horse.

Car rental companies sold off all their inventory last years to reduce losses.
Car manufacturers still dont have enough micro chips to build enough cars.
Not enough cars built equals not enough car rentals.

People are driving around the islands camping in Uhaul vans in Hawaii because….there’s no cars to rent.

Next time go to uhaul and rent a van

#30 Dave on 07.27.21 at 5:53 pm

My biggest concern is how much it will cost for old age care in the future, say in 20 years. What number should I be budgeting now so that I don’t spend too much and end up destitute living under a bridge like a troll? Any suggestions would be appreciated….not which bridge to live under either.

Tomorrow the June inflation numbers are announced. That should be interesting.

#31 IHCTD9 on 07.27.21 at 5:57 pm

I did the risky thing when I was a brainless testosterone soaked kid – got blown out eventually. That’s the problem, you can win and win again, but one big loss cleans you right out. Google up “loss porn” on Reddit, some pretty sad stories there. Some were inches from taking their own lives after vaporizing their life’s savings in a matter of months. No thanks.

I went to moderate mutual funds with the [email protected], then to fee based. Couldn’t pack much in there every month, but it did eventually come up on the curve and is in decent shape today. Playing around in the stock market was just wasting time in my case, I was no good at it, and never would have been. I don’t do my own dental work either.

#32 Dave on 07.27.21 at 5:59 pm

One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. I qualify for it now but I don’t like the idea of calling it my Old Age Pension.

#33 Winterpeg on 07.27.21 at 6:01 pm

Trump will really make a come back? Please say it isn’t so! :(

#34 db on 07.27.21 at 6:03 pm

Hello Garth,
I’m trying hard to understand what risk Boomer Bill is actually fearing. Couldn’t the cash allocation alone (2-5%) shelter him from ‘sequence risk’? Even without this buffer, the dividends and interest alone on a balanced portfolio are more than he is earning on an 20/80 portfolio. Was the actual problem a lack of diversification in his equity portfolio or serious sector over-weights?
As for the young client I think the framing of a B&D portfolio needs a bit of tweaking. If she’s young, a B&D portfolio acts as a hedge on risk; it’s not investment risk she needs to take on, it’s calculated career risks. Taking on new challenges, training, relocation, transfers, career-pivots all entail risk. Why not mitigate some of that risk by having a pro take the emotion out of a (hopefully) growing pot of equity? Eventually all cowboys get saddle burn.

#35 Politics is hard Guy on 07.27.21 at 6:05 pm

People afraid that Trump will be back are still under the mistaken impression that Trump created his supporters.

Trump merely gives voice to his popular support. That’s why he changes his position often, depending upon which way his supporters lean.

74 million Americans voted for Trump in 2020, 11 million more than voted for him in 2016 despite the concerted efforts of media, big tech and the Washington establishment to discredit him.

The only things discredited in the eyes of those who support Trump are corporate media, big tech and the Washington establishment.

So it really won’t make a difference if Trump runs again or not, his 74 million supporters (of voting age) are not going anywhere except to the more extreme side as media continues to destroy their own credibility in wild attempts to smear them, Trump and his family.

You don’t believe it, I know. It doesn’t matter, it’s reality.

Best you get used to Trump, or more likely, someone far more authoritarian than Trump (a NY liberal/libertarian) ever was.

And the next guy will have powers far beyond what anyone should have, thanks to power crazed Democrats who talk openly about stacking the SC and who use politically aligned prosecutors to search for ‘crimes’ that may have been committed by political opponents, without any evidence that a law has been broken.

You’re scared for all the wrong reasons. The hysterical reaction to Trump is creating extremists on both sides that will inevitably end in some very nasty things happening.

Instead of an almost insane plot to portray Trump as a Russian spy, causing hysteria across all levels of the most powerful nation on earth, media and his political opponents could merely have pointed out legitimate policy errors and missteps.

Instead, we have a nation where half the voting age population no longer trusts any government agency, media report or even the Supreme Court.

Nice going, hope it was worth it.

#36 db on 07.27.21 at 6:06 pm

Forgot to mention… wasn’t sequence risk somewhat mitigated during the past two melt-downs by the tweaking of the RIF withdrawal rate minimums?

#37 Don Guillermo on 07.27.21 at 6:10 pm

#32 Dave on 07.27.21 at 5:59 pm
One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. I qualify for it now but I don’t like the idea of calling it my Old Age Pension
*****
You’d have been an awesome millenial

#38 CJohnC on 07.27.21 at 6:15 pm

#8 Ballingsford. Re Trump “Maybe he should move to Canada and try his luck here.”

We already have our Trump…..T2 aka sockboy.

Same admiration for dictators, same level of corruption, same level of sexism (really), same level of inappropriateness when it comes to supporting his base, same level of contempt for how government is supposed to function and ruling by decree.

The only real difference is that Trump is a showman modeled on PT Barnum and T2 is simply smarmy and pandering.

#39 IHCTD9 on 07.27.21 at 6:21 pm

#24 Stone on 07.27.21 at 5:28 pm

B&D all the way to the day I die.
——-

I’ve been thinking about this approach too. Even continuing to stuff the TFSA during retirement. It’s looking more and more like we may not need much, if anything from the stash. 2 decent CPP’s + OAS’s and one public DBP is probably going to be more than enough given our location and lifestyle.

I figure why not just keep building it if I don’t need it? I got kids that would benefit, any grandkids even more.

#40 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 6:29 pm

Very few people have the emotional stability to invest safely. I know a few, but there’s also a reason that the folks with whom I most frequently discuss investing are brokers and wealth managers.

As with many things, the mechanics aren’t difficult but emotional control is the killer. It’s hard to hang on when you are experiencing perceived reduction of net worth.

Just some thoughts. Right now, though, I am a person experiencing hunger, so will amble on down to A&W.

#41 BobinKits on 07.27.21 at 6:31 pm

For what it’s worth……this is just so wrong!

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/07/gop-frontrunner-poll-donald-trump-jr

#42 Winterpeg on 07.27.21 at 6:32 pm

Dave #32 “One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. ”

Cooter Cash? Downhill Dough?

( Sorry, Couldn’t resist. Been listening to too much Comedy radio) ;)

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 6:33 pm

@#Sail Away
“The only thing more embarrassing would be if a PhD from a completely unrelated field joined you in these assertions again. Is there no intellectual rigour and honesty anymore?!?”

++++

So many Doctors….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XABXzOrhBXI

#44 Ballingsford on 07.27.21 at 6:35 pm

#30 Dave on 07.27.21 at 5:53 pm
My biggest concern is how much it will cost for old age care in the future, say in 20 years. What number should I be budgeting now so that I don’t spend too much and end up destitute living under a bridge like a troll? Any suggestions would be appreciated….not which bridge to live under either.

Tomorrow the June inflation numbers are announced. That should be interesting.
************
Interesting that you are thinking that gar ahead, not many do. If you need a lot of care, like around the clock, you need $8000-$10000 per month. Usually, you only live 2-3 years or less when you get to that stage, unless it’s dementia. I had an uncle with dementia that lived 15 years after going into the home.

So, in 20 years, maybe budget for $15,000/month.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 6:37 pm

@#42 Winterpeg
““One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. ”

++++

Boomer Bucks?
Welfare Wages?
Cat Food Cash?
Casino Night?
Pill Pesos?

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.27.21 at 6:38 pm

#32 Dave on 07.27.21 at 5:59 pm
One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. I qualify for it now but I don’t like the idea of calling it my Old Age Pension.
—————–
Yeah,
Some old folks just like don’t age gracefully.
But, call it Middle Age Pension if you want.
If it makes you feel better.

#47 Faron on 07.27.21 at 6:50 pm

#1 Blacksheep on 07.27.21 at 4:20 pm
Faron # 95,

“Correlation ain’t causation, but this certainly is strong supporting evidence (level 5) that Trump has a chunk of the responsibility to bear.”
———————————
Could it be possible that the people that think the way Trump thinks, would react to the new suggested vaccines, in the same negative fashion…

Even if Trump never existed?

I don’t think Trump ‘converted’ many people to the dark side, he just unapologetically told the media and them what they wanted to hear, because they were already thinking it, long before he became their messiah…

I agree that such a chart in the counterfactual world of no Trump would have looked somewhat similar, but I bet you would see measurable differences between them.

4 years of Trump definitely has signal and I think vaccine uptake is a pretty good place to find it given how hard he worked to dismantle any kind of science based policy.

#48 Faron on 07.27.21 at 6:52 pm

#113 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 4:31 pm
#110 Sara on 07.27.21 at 3:59 pm

FWIW, for the longest time I was convinced that SA and CEF were the same person.

Really? CEF actually shows some heart now and then. But maybe I just a sucker for fart jokes.

#49 DON on 07.27.21 at 6:52 pm

#25 Madchild on 07.27.21 at 5:35 pm
Hey Garth:

I just paid $1,400 for a rental car in BC for 3 days.

Anyone else noticing a massive uptick in rental car prices and hotel booking prices?

*************

Yes to hotel prices. My better half was chatting with the front desk person. When BC opened up they went from empty to booked solid. So up went the rates…but can still find deals through expedia etc.

Service and cleaniness not back to normal…still working out the bugs and hiring staff. Even Nanaimo is expensive. No offence folks who live in Nanaimo. Weekends are busy but not so much during the week.

Lots of people camping in and nook and cranny on the back roads but again mostly on the weekends from what I have seen.

#50 Ballingsford on 07.27.21 at 6:53 pm

#42 Winterpeg on 07.27.21 at 6:32 pm
Dave #32 “One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. ”

Cooter Cash? Downhill Dough?

( Sorry, Couldn’t resist. Been listening to too much Comedy radio)

********
Since Boomers are the ones who are collecting it now, it should have a name the reflects on their wisdom or something. Maybe GGE Security. Greatest Generation Ever.

#51 Faron on 07.27.21 at 6:55 pm

#12 Sara on 07.27.21 at 4:43 pm
#6 Slim on 07.27.21 at 4:33 pm

Of all the bad things that could happen, the thought of Trump coming back scares me more.

=====================

Same.

I worry more about a refinement of Trumpism that will arise from the repubs. Nikki Haley. Trump’s biggest problem is that he was too much a bumbling idiot to really effect change. People mainly put him in what I like to call “Nerf World”. But, someone effective like Nikki could be bad. That said, she has brains so there may be hope there.

#52 Sandy Sherwood on 07.27.21 at 7:22 pm

Too bad Bill did not buy long term provincials and provincial strips like me. I don’t have $2.6 million but making $113,000 a year total interest 40% from compound interest, 60% from simple interest with 4.5% to 4.6% yields at $101 to $102 per bond initial price paid back in 2011 maturing 2039, 2040. I knew after Obama won in 2009 interest rates would suck.

#53 Linley on 07.27.21 at 7:38 pm

It took you so long to post.. I was concerned. Glad you’re okay.

#54 Joseph R. on 07.27.21 at 7:47 pm

Always been a cat owner (servant?) all my life. Despite that, it hits me deeply every time Garth posts a picture of a recently deceased dog.

There is no denying how much joy they can bring to their owners; I read that Bella was no exception.

#55 KLNR on 07.27.21 at 7:55 pm

@#35 Politics is hard Guy on 07.27.21 at 6:05 pm
People afraid that Trump will be back are still under the mistaken impression that Trump created his supporters.

Trump merely gives voice to his popular support. That’s why he changes his position often, depending upon which way his supporters lean.

74 million Americans voted for Trump in 2020, 11 million more than voted for him in 2016 despite the concerted efforts of media, big tech and the Washington establishment to discredit him blablablablabla…

74mil voted republican party, maybe 20% of that are trumpers.

#56 Sceptical Investor on 07.27.21 at 7:58 pm

Warren Buffet suggests to invest in an S&P 500 index fund and just ignore the noise, and then open up your statement when you retire and be pleasantly surprised. Jack Bogle suggested the same, too. I’m sticking to this advice.

#57 TurnerNation on 07.27.21 at 8:04 pm

On the Economic shutdowns, finally the mainstream media finally printing to the effect.

Back to normal…any day now! Any day. Think 2022-23, likely 2025 as the Reset ravages the world.
I’ve heard that so much more must be put into place by September. Stay tuned.

.The unending economic nightmare created by Australia’s zero-Covid strategy -Opinion Piece (telegraph.co.uk)


— People have all along said the the public unions are fueling this nightmare. Let’s see; always control over our travel/movements.

.Ontario: Students will be seperated by vaccination status come September (toronto.ctvnews.ca)

.Canadian border workers vote in favour of striking as soon as Aug. 6: union (cp24.com)
“A union representing about 9,000 Canadian Border Service Agency workers says its members have voted in favour of striking, jeopardizing the federal government’s reopening plans”

.China’s Nanjing with 9 million people sealed off as Delta variant of Covid spreads (hindustantimes.com)
“The city of Nanjing in eastern China has been virtually sealed off and residents advised to stay indoors after 31 new Covid-19 cases were reported on Tuesday in the past 24 hours, pushing the total number of coronavirus infections up to 112 in the ongoing outbreak”

.Greater Sydney lockdown to be extended by four weeks as COVID cases continue to climb (abc.net.au)

.Colombian COVID Variant Spreading in Areas of Florida (newsweek.com)

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 8:04 pm

@#48 faron

“CEF actually shows some heart now and then. But maybe I just a sucker for fart jokes.”

+++

I got a little choked up and teary eyed when I read that no my phone…. but then the doors opened and I realized….twas my own undoing……

#59 Andrewski on 07.27.21 at 8:05 pm

#25 madchild re car rental. I have an upcoming 2 week car rental out of YYZ costing $347 including all fees and taxes.

#60 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 8:09 pm

Maybe I missed it, but what exactly did Trump do that was so bad?

#61 earthboundmisfit on 07.27.21 at 8:23 pm

#32 Dave
“I don’t like the idea of calling it my Old Age Pension.”

We commonly refer to it as either our Geezer Stipend or our Fogey Pogey.

#62 Faron on 07.27.21 at 8:30 pm

#60 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 8:09 pm

Maybe I missed it, but what exactly did Trump do that was so bad?

Did you wash your hands before eating that burger? You know, dung balls and all…

Anyhow, there’s the 30,500+ lies that he told to the American people (an average of 20 lies per day). That seems like a good place to start. From there, there are almost infinite lines of inquiry.

#63 Nonplused on 07.27.21 at 8:31 pm

#42 Winterpeg on 07.27.21 at 6:32 pm
Dave #32 “One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. ”

Cooter Cash? Downhill Dough?

( Sorry, Couldn’t resist. Been listening to too much Comedy radio) ;)

——————————-

Senior bonus? Bingo money? Freedom 65? Survivor’s benefits? Last chance bonus? Limited time special? Poverty bonus? UBIOA? Boomer bucks?

#64 Dr V on 07.27.21 at 8:35 pm

60 SA – o man, that made me laugh. Thanx

Sometimes it’s nice just to lighten up this pathetic blog.

#65 McSteve on 07.27.21 at 8:44 pm

I have one question about fixed income I’d love someone to explain. With yeilds sitting close to zero, isn’t it pretty much certain that any rate hike will crush existing bonds? Aren’t they fully priced? Also, bond ETFs that can’t be held to maturity like a bond itself would seem even more dangerous(?). Wouldn’t it be better to invest the fixed income portion of your portfolio in low beta utilities? Or straight treasuries?

#66 Winterpeg on 07.27.21 at 9:00 pm

@CEF re: OAS:
Boomer Bucks?
Welfare Wages?
Cat Food Cash?
Casino Night?
Pill Pesos?

Bingo bucks?
Fogey funds?
Geezer gold? (or Old Gold)…..

#67 Machines are incredible on 07.27.21 at 9:07 pm

In case you missed it. Wow, hope I’m around in 20 years!

https://www.tmz.com/2021/07/25/basketball-robot-tokyo-olympics-basketball-half-court-shot/

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.27.21 at 9:09 pm

Stay away from the Okanagan.
Virus is surging again in BC.
Mostly in kelowna.
General Bonnie Henry is back.
Get your vaccines.
This is far from over.

#69 the Jaguar on 07.27.21 at 9:11 pm

Where is Doug Rowat? Enquiring minds would like to know his opinion on this dust up over drafting a young player to the Montreal hockey team who shared a photo of some scantily clad woman with friends and team mates. And subsequently apologized. Apparently it’s “Off with Their Heads!” for everyone involved in the draft choice. Sponsors expressing dismay, even the PM has weighed in with grave disappointment. ( which is kind of funny given rumours about possible reasons for his hasty departure from a previous job held in BC province and other accusations made public ).

Is this one of those cases where a woman texts or emails a photo of herself willingly and then cries foul when it is shared?. If you don’t want your assets going public keep them private. And if you choose to share, ‘Beware’.
Meanwhile a Federal court will likely rule whether to strike Dany Fortin’s case this week as a civil case. The Blame Game is taken to whole new levels in the ‘Age of Victimhood.’
Oh me. No wonder sport have become such a crashing bore.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 9:25 pm

@#60 Sail Away
“Maybe I missed it, but what exactly did Trump do that was so bad?”

+++

Repeatedly, inanely……
Voiced his opinion?

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 9:28 pm

@#67 Pandemic Ponzies Pharmaceuticals

“Stay away from the Okanagan.
Virus is surging again in BC.”

++++

It boggles my mind that 900,000 British Columbians havent gotten even one vaccine….
Get ready for covid round 4

#72 Jack on 07.27.21 at 9:33 pm

While you work: contribute from every pay-check to a portfolio 70% stocks (*) and 30% bonds.
When you retire: 100-age in bonds, the difference in stocks, not less than 35%. If you are 80, still have 35% in stocks. If you are 60, 40% stocks.
(*) Stocks= an index following the S&P500, e.g. VFV, or TDB902 etc.
Never withdraw money from stocks in a storm (like March 2020, or 2008). Ignore them. Use the bonds. Rebalance once or twice a year, or when the allocation is more than 3% off.
If you think you may be tempted to withdraw in a downturn -ask yourself: what did you do in the last one- hire a financial advisor to prevent you from self-harm..
All this is pretty much Jack Bogle’s advice (read The Little book of common sense investing) and it works. Input this portfolio in Personal Capital and it says your avg annual performance will be around 8.1% (probably higher while you work and have 70% stocks).

#73 Come on on 07.27.21 at 9:34 pm

Come on this is sooooo stupid of a topic
66 yrs old
Got maybe 25 yrs left
2.6 million at zero gives him over 100k a yr not incl cpp and oas.
What’s the problem

#74 Keith on 07.27.21 at 9:36 pm

@#60 Sail Away

He joined a long list of right wing western politicians who rolled into office on an undeserved reputation for fiscal probity, and proceeded down the well trodden and failed path of tax cuts without matching spending cuts. The sad pre covid fiscal record of Trump, and his unrealistic commitment of a balanced budget in 2028 without a clear path to said goal, left fiscal hawks across the political spectrum disappointed and abandoned.

He temporarily goosed growth, since large tax cuts are the equivalent of handing out free money, but without a coherent economic policy the growth rate was already falling while the debt continued to grow at a trillion dollar a year clip.

He actually did us a favor – even a billionaire businessman from outside the political elite doesn’t have easy answers for the fiscal crisis, even without a 100 year flood event. When someone promises efficiency, and sustained higher growth from tax cuts, demand the details. The last American president to run a surplus was Bill Clinton. There is no free lunch in budgeting personally, for a business or a nation.

#75 house cat on 07.27.21 at 9:40 pm

#32 Dave
Dave hate to tell you but, wait for it……….your old!
Name is appropriate, get over it.

#76 Cici on 07.27.21 at 9:40 pm

#25 Madchild on 07.27.21 at 5:35 pm
Hey Garth:

I just paid $1,400 for a rental car in BC for 3 days.

Anyone else noticing a massive uptick in rental car prices and hotel booking prices?

____________________________________________

Ouch! But that’s inflation, babe.

I’m a GenXer and my first car (Volkswagen Rabbit) cost me $800.

I drove it for 2 years, then sold it (again, for $800) to buy a plane ticket to Europe (also $800).

#77 yvr_lurker on 07.27.21 at 9:47 pm

#44
So, in 20 years, maybe budget for $15,000/month.


My favorite uncle passed in 2016. He understood the writing on the wall, and we found out later faked taking his meds for 3 weeks beforehand that were keeping him going. Wanted some dignity and to not deplete their assets for his younger wife. Brave and I would do exactly likewise (even with a more directed hand if need be) when the time comes if I have 1/5 of a brain left. The Quebcois film “Invasion of the Barbarians” says it all. No way I would I be bound to some dumbass religious belief to hang on in an opaque mental state to cost my family 15K per month, depleting all my life savings so that they next generation had little left when the end finally comes.

#78 GOP future on 07.27.21 at 9:57 pm

#55 KLNR

Maybe you can explain this poll:

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-jr-ron-desantis-republican-poll-d4015e72-1714-47f1-ab06-156e3dd783ff.html

where Trump Junior and Ron DeSantis (a strong Trump supporter who goes so far as to mimic Trump Sr’s mannerisms) are by far the most popular GOP ‘future’ leaders, along with other Trump supporters who are far more extreme (Gaetz and Greene), while vocal anti-Trumper Liz Cheney clocks in at MINUS 43, the least popular person in the party.

Maybe you can show a poll where Trump Senior was at 20% support in 2020 as you claim?

But you can’t, obviously, so just sit back and enjoy the thought that the anti-Trumpers are lead by Bush and Cheney, who are being embraced by the left now.

I don’t know about you, but as someone who thinks GW Bush was the worst POTUS in history and Dick Cheney is a war mongering monster, I love to see the Democrats fawn all over them and their spawn.

Meanwhile, Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi are being shunned and attacked by many of their former supporters, for being honest about media bias and big tech censorship.

Should make you think, if you are an honest lefty.

#79 Infinite Eye Rolls Courtesy of SailAway on 07.27.21 at 10:08 pm

I am grateful for Trump’s presidency because while he was in the Whitehouse it kept SailAway here in Canada.

And now that Biden is in the Whitehouse I have noticed a definite uptick in the number of times that SailAway has mentioned how ready he is to decamp to the US.

It seems SA agrees with Tom Brady.
It is safe to return to the US & the Whitehouse again.

That was something wasn’t it? To see America’s Quarterback at the Whitehouse celebrating a superbowl win and not just celebrating but making a speech and joking with the President.

Tom Brady, the very definition of laconic, talking & joking and delivering a customized jersey for #46. Two times he had the chance to visit the Whitehouse during the presidency of his friend Donald Trump and two times he had “other obligations”. Shopping for shoes in NYC with Gisele I believe.

Remarkable.

#80 NSNG on 07.27.21 at 10:26 pm

$10,000,000,000,000 Tuesday – 6 Stocks are 25% of the Market

That’s the market cap of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) and TSLA these days. Not only is that 25% of the S&P 500s market cap, it’s closer to 1/3 of their earnings and, over at the Nasdaq, the Big 6 make up over 50% of that indexe’s market cap (this chart was from earlier in the year, when they were still a bargain 49%)…

… TSLA reported last night and made $1Bn for the quarter which, if they can do that consistently, means their $640Bn market cap is only 160 times their earnings so, Yay!, I guess…

…If we are heading into that Dystopian Future where a few dozen corporations control every aspect of life on this planet – it makes perfect sense that, at some point, 6 companies should be worth 1/3 as much as the other 12,000. That’s just a natural progression.

Consider the entire Nasdaq is $20Tn and it was $11.2Tn 2 years ago so it’s gained $8.8Tn in market cap. TSLA (left off because it broke the chart) was at $50Bn 2 years ago and is now at $640Bn so $590Bn of the Nasdaq’s gain (6.7%) came from that one stock. AAPL gained $1.6Tn (20%), MSFT gained $1.1Tn (12.5%), GOOGL gained $1Tn (11.4%), FB gained $500Bn (5.6%)

So our Big 6 companies gained $5.7Tn, accounting for 51% of the Nasdaq’s total gain in price but NONE of those companies, except TSLA, have grown either earnings or revenues over 100% to justify the move. Even AAPL, as great as they are, are “only” on track for $86Bn in profits on $355Bn in sales while in 2019, they made $55Bn on $260Bn in sales. Yet in 2019, you could buy AAPL for $65/share – now it’s $150!

https://www.thestreet.com/phildavis/stocks-options/10000000000000-tuesday-6-stocks-are-25-of-the-market

That’s as bad as the dot-com bubble if not worse.

#81 Ian on 07.27.21 at 10:29 pm

If markets always go up with some months long blips (see last article) why not go 100% equity (at least until retirement) if you are willing to stay invested?

#82 The Joy of Steerage on 07.27.21 at 10:40 pm

#32 Dave on 07.27.21 at 5:59 pm

One thing that needs to be changed is Old Age Security. For crying out loud that term is so ageist that it almost sickens me. Change the name to something less derogatory. I qualify for it now but I don’t like the idea of calling it my Old Age Pension.

How about Geriatric Pogey?

#83 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 10:41 pm

I recall the Trump years being pretty good. And things are good now- heck, Biden sent us $4,200 USD!

For that matter, things have been pretty good for my entire existence. Fighting for Bush in Iraq, running with Clinton in Korea, succeeding beyond our wildest expectations as a Hispanic family in the US, and now doing the same in Canada.

Talking with our daughter in NZ the other day, she said she feels she’s living her best life ever. Watching the All-Blacks, living with friends, working and paying her own way. Perfect life for a 22yo.

It almost feels like we live a charmed existence. No complaints from the Sail Aways.

#84 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 10:55 pm

#78 Infinite Eye Rolls Courtesy of SailAway on 07.27.21 at 10:08 pm

I am grateful for Trump’s presidency because while he was in the Whitehouse it kept SailAway here in Canada.

And now that Biden is in the Whitehouse I have noticed a definite uptick in the number of times that SailAway has mentioned how ready he is to decamp to the US.

———–

Hard to say, really. It’s all about where our money gets better treatment. We do have the parachute package fully in place and can pick and choose. My wife is pushing for a winter home in San Diego or Hawaii and we do greatly enjoy BC in the summer.

We may stay here, you lucky dog!

#85 Russ on 07.27.21 at 10:57 pm

Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 8:09 pm

Maybe I missed it, but what exactly did Trump do that was so bad?
===================

He (Trump) did not start a war. Bad news.

A USA President is expected to create a new armed conflict at least once during his term.

Note: we aren’t sure if this is expected of a female president since they haven’t had one.

Also of note: They had to rush the Nobel Peace prize to Obama because it was commonly expected that he would start the Afghanistan War.

Cheers, R

#86 Dr V on 07.27.21 at 11:03 pm

79 NSNG – so are you taking any gains out?

#87 fishman on 07.27.21 at 11:46 pm

Ya, what did Trump do that was so bad? Other than not do what he said he’d do.
He didn’t correct, let alone slow down political correctness.
He didn’t build a wall & stop illegal immigration,
He didn’t get rid of illegals.
He didn’t stop the export of manufacturing jobs to
China.
He didn’t drain the swamp.
He didn’t get rapprochement with Russia.
He didn’t run a low debt to GDP budget.
The last thing us Trump fanboys want is Trump back in power. He didn’t deliver. We’re looking for a hard hearted, steely eyed Trumpster that can deliver. Like Ann Coulter says. We dodged the bullet not getting Trump for another term. For now us poor Trump fanboys can only fantasize while waiting for a leader with the cunning, intelligence , ruthlessness & patriotism of a Putin. How the West has fallen when we must look to the East for leaders that have the qualities we demand.

#88 Squire on 07.27.21 at 11:48 pm

Great video from Mr Harper. Worth the view
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stephen-harper-podcast-interview-pandemic-1.6120113 

https://youtu.be/n2CpZTlTL1A

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.27.21 at 11:59 pm

Have a look at a vaccination station in Vienna, Austria.
Pretty classy!

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/stadt-wien-schliesst-zwei-corona-teststrassen/401455051

#90 NoName on 07.28.21 at 3:24 am

Lifeguards working in Croatia.

https://twitter.com/mrstrangefact/status/1420197334462443522

#91 SoggyShorts on 07.28.21 at 4:30 am

#80 Ian on 07.27.21 at 10:29 pm

If markets always go up with some months long blips (see last article) why not go 100% equity (at least until retirement) if you are willing to stay invested?

***********************
Two main reasons
1. It’s really hard. When March 2020 happens and your retirement fund drops by a third it’s super hard not to bail and “save what is left”.
Garth and Sail Away just barely talked me off the ledge for which I will be forever grateful.

2. If everything is deployed in equities you have nothing that you can “sell high” in order to capitalize on a sale like March 2020

#92 Diamond Dog on 07.28.21 at 5:35 am

#79 NSNG on 07.27.21 at 10:26 pm

Agreed.

https://www.liberatedstocktrader.com/sp-500-companies

Lets look at a few of these kings without nations that serve the beast:

Amazon’s P/E ratio? 69
Microsoft? 39
Apple? 33
Google? 35
Facebook? 32

Disney? 77
Visa? 52
J & J? 26
Walmart? 32
General Electric? 52
AMD? 39

Just to name a few.

If one was to go after the conservative long game, it would be JP Morgan with a P/E at 10 or Intel at 12 but it’s never really been about P/E as evidenced by the charts. But when oh when, outside of JP, have we seen P/E’s as high as this in the top 10? The dot.com bubble and if memory serves, these numbers are higher.

Oh, but we can’t call this gov engineered 2021 post pandemic market a bubble, not enough euphoria apparently, every day is a new normal since history is meaningless (like it was with dot.com) and everyone is happy as is always the case with a nice bull run and we can’t really rock the boat can we, since it’s messaging that no one wants to hear except for the fact that it’s all rear view mirror.

Well, mostly. I was just thinking if someone put a gun to my head and told me I had to take every dollar and degenerate gambler bet on options or take a bullet, what would I do? Long or short? Well… we are likely safe until the end of this earnings season and then we have to ask ourselves, do we have 1 quarter of pent up demand or 2?

If we have 2, we go long into November but there’s so much risk by the time we get there for a wide host of reasons first and foremost being global from Delta but we could see it potentially in North America. If we do, a crash at these valuations is likely. This is all in the backdrop of a Fed that will have borrowed 5 trillion annually these last 2 years to prop it all up. This market is so divorced from reality, where does one begin. Well, valuations. Again.

As evidenced by CB borrowing, the U.S. brought about 3.5 future years worth of good times forward because of this pandemic directly through Q.E. and buying MBS’s. How much longer can the Fed sustain this kind of public spending and to what end before we see a world empire lose it’s place?

#93 Prospero1623 on 07.28.21 at 6:07 am

Hey Garth – I know the ten year average return is around 7% as cited but a lot of people think the next ten will hover around 3-4%. That’s what institutional investors are grappling with at any rate. What are your thoughts? Would welcome a different view.

#94 Oakville Rocks! on 07.28.21 at 7:09 am

@#68 the Jaguar

What a sleazy comment.

For someone who reads a lot it is surprising that you did not take the time to gather the facts in the Logan Mailloux case before reaching immediately for “Is this one of those cases where a woman texts or emails a photo of herself willingly and then cries foul when it is shared?.”

Here is the story from your beloved National Post:
https://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-pick-logan-mailloux-has-lots-of-work-to-do-off-ice-expert

Be sure to read this paragraph; “Mailloux, an 18-year-old defenceman, released a statement early last week saying he had renounced himself from Friday night’s draft, adding he hadn’t earned and didn’t deserve the privilege of being selected after secretly photographing an 18-year-old woman engaged in a sexual act with him while in Sweden last year and sharing the picture and her identity with his SK Lejon teammates. Mailloux was charged with defamation and offensive photography and was fined approximately US$1,650.”

And then to top it off, you have to repeat the never proven claims about Trudeau and West Point Grey Academy.
Here is what Snopes.com has to say about this evidence free innuendo.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trudeau-sex-scandal-school/

I guess the story about Trudeau pinching a woman’s butt in his 20’s wasn’t sleazy enough for you.

So, southern Alberta, this is where the pig farms are I guess.

I can’t wait to read another lecture from you on taking the high road in the comments and avoid getting in the muck with the pigs.

#95 Dharma Bum on 07.28.21 at 7:38 am

“She passed away under mysterious circumstances in Mexico.”
———————————————————————————–

Mexico?

Death under mysterious circumstances?

Oh, now THAT’s a big surprise.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.21 at 8:20 am

@#72 Come on
“2.6 million at zero gives him over 100k a yr not incl cpp and oas.
What’s the problem?

+++

Yep.
Reminded me of the Weekend Globe and Mail anonymous investor of the week.

” I’ve got $3 million in RRSP’s, $1 Million in TFSA’a, $10 million in unregistered accounts, a mortgage free house worth $6 million, my wife and I both have govt pensions worth $250k per year each, we own two electric cars paid for with cash, no kids….

Will we have enough to vacation in Wasaga Beach this Summer?”

#97 Shawn Allen on 07.28.21 at 8:21 am

But what about our other millions?

#14 Mike on 07.27.21 at 4:48 pm
.
Why are people bothering with stocks?

Just buy in lower Brainland. 5% down, 95% someone else money.
Value doubles every 5 years.
Tax free.
Stock market is no match, especially someone is giving 95% of money to buy.

**************************
Okay so a million dollar house “soaks up” $50,000 equity in your example and puts a full million at risk. A 30% drop, should it happen, puts you at minus $250,000 equity.

Anyhow this works really only for a principle residence with 5% down. Where shall we boomers invest our other several million dollars if not the stock market?

Signed: A hate-worthy boomer. (And let’s face it, that’s not the only reason to hate me.)

#98 Shawn Allen on 07.28.21 at 8:31 am

About 95% mortgages

Mike at 14 said: “Stock market is no match, especially someone is giving 95% of money to buy.”

Whether it be personal or corporate, a loan is not a gift. It could be a millstone. It could (almost literally) kill you.

Imagine the difference in stress level when you lose your job and have big debts versus zero debts. Night and day.

I’m not saying avoid mortgage debt. But it’s hardly a gift.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.21 at 8:32 am

Goodness.

Looks like China has jumped on the anti racist bandwagon.

https://nationalpost.com/sports/olympics/chinese-officials-angered-over-shameless-photo-of-olympic-gold-medal-weightlifter

#100 the Jaguar on 07.28.21 at 9:38 am

Had no idea Oakville Rocks reads my posts, given his previous venom. Go figure.
FYI, I wasn’t a participant in ‘the sleaze’, just the hockey player and the girl, who both put themselves in the position which resulted in the outcome. Don’t have to be too smart to realize the young people take phone videos of everything these days. Cancel Culture in full swing as usual. Another life in ruin for a mistake made and paid for. The team management must have considered it in their decision to move forward with the invitation to join the team.
Thanks for bringing up the West Point Grey Academy name though, as it may renew interest. Previous poster here provided some insight on that matter, but maybe you missed it. You even provided the link. What a sport!
The pig farm comment is quite revealing. A dog whistle if ever I heard one, but I reserve comment, though the temptation is great. I know you’re a guy who likes “chicken”.

#101 Prairieboy43 on 07.28.21 at 9:57 am

It boggles my mind that 900,000 British Columbians havent gotten even one vaccine….
Get ready for covid round 4
———————————————————————————————-

After three rounds Covid-19, Yet they are all Alive???
Wow….eh! Wow? Mind boggling…….
PB43

#102 Not Fooled on 07.28.21 at 10:15 am

#99 the Jaguar on 07.28.21 at 9:38 am
Had no idea Oakville Rocks reads my posts, given his previous venom. Go figure.
FYI, I wasn’t a participant in ‘the sleaze’, just the hockey player and the girl, who both put themselves in the position which resulted in the outcome….

**************

Victim-blaming is despicable. That young men’s brains are addled by their porn habits is in no way any woman’s fault. Or are you such a repressed prude that you think any woman who has sex outside of marriage and missionary position deserves public shaming?

What about women who are filmed surreptitiously by men in places where privacy is the expectation, like bathroom cubicles? Are these women to blame as well?

Your entire persona here screams XY fantasy.

#103 Linda on 07.28.21 at 10:37 am

Living on $50K ‘in a big city’ in retirement doesn’t equate to dire poverty. IF the retiree has no debt, a $50K annual income (pre or post tax? the blog doesn’t say) will for most folks be more than adequate. Why? Because most retirees are past the acquisition of ‘stuff’. They already have vast quantities of ‘stuff’ – for the older retirees, they are trying to get rid of the stuff they have, because they don’t want the hassle of taking care of it. Yes, retirees may in the first few years spend quite a lot as they ramp up the retiree lifestyle. Again however what is spent really depends on what that person is interested in doing. For a lot of folks, they just keep on doing the activities they were doing prior to retiring, just more of it. For example travel. If you like to travel chances are you are already doing it. The difference pre to post retirement is that now you don’t ‘have’ to be back home by a certain date because your vacation time is over & work expects you at your cubicle come Monday morning. I’d add that travel deals are more easy to come by when you can go at any time of the day/week. Whether that will be the case post Covid is yet to be determined.

A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth

#104 Faron on 07.28.21 at 10:37 am

#99 the Jaguar on 07.28.21 at 9:38 am

“both”

What part of “secretly recorded” do you not understand? By your logic, you would be fine with a partner of yours secretly filming you and publishing it? Because “both”?

It is truly amazing how immediately and reflexively you throw female claimants of sexual abuse or harassment under the bus just to spite what you see as a liberal take. Pull your head out woman!

” A dog whistle if ever I heard one”

Ha! You don’t even know what that means! LOL. No, that was a direct statement that you are as much of a muck wallower as anyone here despite the prim, high ground you claim. You stand on one foot of stool in four feet of mud. Good luck.

#105 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 10:38 am

#90 SoggyShorts on 07.28.21 at 4:30 am
#80 Ian on 07.27.21 at 10:29 pm

If markets always go up with some months long blips (see last article) why not go 100% equity (at least until retirement) if you are willing to stay invested?

———

It’s really hard. When March 2020 happens and your retirement fund drops by a third it’s super hard not to bail and “save what is left”.

Garth and Sail Away just barely talked me off the ledge for which I will be forever grateful.

———

Glad it worked out. Good move… or not move.

An interesting note on human nature: during the downturn, while I was continually buying the ride down and posting buys in real time because legitimacy, the blogs were strangely veeeery quiet. Empty catacombs.

Then after markets rocketed back 40%, it turned out that everybody bought the dip. Uh huh. Sure.

#106 Damifino on 07.28.21 at 10:42 am

#51 Faron

Trump’s biggest problem is that he was too much a bumbling idiot to really effect change.
———————————-

The bumbling idiot assessment is irrelevant. Trump had no intention of effecting change. It was nothing but self aggrandizing theater from day one. And it still is.

#107 Faron on 07.28.21 at 10:49 am

#101 Not Fooled on 07.28.21 at 10:15 am
#99 the Jaguar on 07.28.21 at 9:38 am

Incredible that she doubled down there and even dipped into her sleaze drenched (#MattGaetz), neo-right satchel for the tried-and-true “cancel culture”. Such a handy tool for trying to escape any scrutiny isn’t it? In this case it’s limp spaghetti when you need a mill bastard to escape your sexist prison. DUDE CANCELLED HIMSELF!

#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.28.21 at 10:51 am

#101 Not Fooled on 07.28.21 at 10:15 am
#99 the Jaguar on 07.28.21 at 9:38 am
Had no idea Oakville Rocks reads my posts, given his previous venom. Go figure.
FYI, I wasn’t a participant in ‘the sleaze’, just the hockey player and the girl, who both put themselves in the position which resulted in the outcome….
—————————
The Habs should have consulted the Canucks before drafting the guy.
The Canucks finally let Virtanen go, 5 years too late.

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.28.21 at 10:59 am

Regarding the unvaccinated:
“Who, Whom the Gods want to destroy, they first make stupid”

#110 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 11:19 am

#100 Prairieboy43 on 07.28.21 at 9:57 am

It boggles my mind that 900,000 British Columbians havent gotten even one vaccine….
Get ready for covid round 4

———

After three rounds Covid-19, Yet they are all Alive???
Wow….eh! Wow? Mind boggling…….
PB43

———

Haha. Just lucky.

#111 Quintilian on 07.28.21 at 11:20 am

#105 Damifino on 07.28.21 at 10:42 am

“The bumbling idiot assessment is irrelevant. Trump had no intention of effecting change. It was nothing but self aggrandizing theater from day one. And it still is.”

Yet over 70 Million Americans and 40 Million Canadians do not understand this.

#112 Love_The_Cottage on 07.28.21 at 11:21 am

#102 Linda on 07.28.21 at 10:37 am
A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth
____
Is there a study you can point to because I’ve not seen one with these facts.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.21 at 11:29 am

@#43 Prairie Boy 43
“After three rounds Covid-19, Yet they are all Alive???
Wow….eh! Wow? Mind boggling…….”

++++

Lets wait and see how bad the Delta variant spreads and sickens.
The majority of BC non Vaxx’ers appear to live up north and the interior….
Fracking Alberta workers aside……
I wonder if their family’s will expect free plane flights, hotels and meals when they come to visit their sick loved one’s in overflowing ICU’s down south…..

#114 DON on 07.28.21 at 11:37 am

Russia increased their rates to 6.5 to continue responding to inflation. China stepped in to regulate some areas. Both show an alternate path (war of the minds?).

Can someone share what it was like to be an adult during the Oil shocks in the 70’s?

#115 DON on 07.28.21 at 11:41 am

#105 Damifino on 07.28.21 at 10:42 am
#51 Faron

Trump’s biggest problem is that he was too much a bumbling idiot to really effect change.
———————————-

The bumbling idiot assessment is irrelevant. Trump had no intention of effecting change. It was nothing but self aggrandizing theater from day one. And it still is.

***********
Reality TV ….literally.

He said he would be back.

#116 Paterfamilias on 07.28.21 at 11:43 am

# 104. Sail Away. Surely you do not question the sincerity of your fellow bloggers ? They must have been too busy buying the dip, to have time to post.

#117 Yukon Elvis on 07.28.21 at 11:51 am

A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth
++++++++++++++

I agree with that. When working there is not a lot of time to spend the money. In retirement there is lots of time to spend the money and having fun costs money. Boredom sucks.

#118 James on 07.28.21 at 11:51 am

#35 Politics is hard Guy on 07.27.21 at 6:05 pm

People afraid that Trump will be back are still under the mistaken impression that Trump created his supporters.

Trump merely gives voice to his popular support. That’s why he changes his position often, depending upon which way his supporters lean.

74 million Americans voted for Trump in 2020, 11 million more than voted for him in 2016 despite the concerted efforts of media, big tech and the Washington establishment to discredit him.

The only things discredited in the eyes of those who support Trump are corporate media, big tech and the Washington establishment.

So it really won’t make a difference if Trump runs again or not, his 74 million supporters (of voting age) are not going anywhere except to the more extreme side as media continues to destroy their own credibility in wild attempts to smear them, Trump and his family.

You don’t believe it, I know. It doesn’t matter, it’s reality.

Best you get used to Trump, or more likely, someone far more authoritarian than Trump (a NY liberal/libertarian) ever was.

And the next guy will have powers far beyond what anyone should have, thanks to power crazed Democrats who talk openly about stacking the SC and who use politically aligned prosecutors to search for ‘crimes’ that may have been committed by political opponents, without any evidence that a law has been broken.

You’re scared for all the wrong reasons. The hysterical reaction to Trump is creating extremists on both sides that will inevitably end in some very nasty things happening.

Instead of an almost insane plot to portray Trump as a Russian spy, causing hysteria across all levels of the most powerful nation on earth, media and his political opponents could merely have pointed out legitimate policy errors and missteps.

Instead, we have a nation where half the voting age population no longer trusts any government agency, media report or even the Supreme Court.

Nice going, hope it was worth it.
_____________________________________________
So are you blaming Trump or the Idiots that voted his bumbling ass into an office that he never had any intention of winning?

#119 James on 07.28.21 at 11:55 am

#102 Linda on 07.28.21 at 10:37 am

Living on $50K ‘in a big city’ in retirement doesn’t equate to dire poverty. IF the retiree has no debt, a $50K annual income (pre or post tax? the blog doesn’t say) will for most folks be more than adequate. Why? Because most retirees are past the acquisition of ‘stuff’. They already have vast quantities of ‘stuff’ – for the older retirees, they are trying to get rid of the stuff they have, because they don’t want the hassle of taking care of it. Yes, retirees may in the first few years spend quite a lot as they ramp up the retiree lifestyle. Again however what is spent really depends on what that person is interested in doing. For a lot of folks, they just keep on doing the activities they were doing prior to retiring, just more of it. For example travel. If you like to travel chances are you are already doing it. The difference pre to post retirement is that now you don’t ‘have’ to be back home by a certain date because your vacation time is over & work expects you at your cubicle come Monday morning. I’d add that travel deals are more easy to come by when you can go at any time of the day/week. Whether that will be the case post Covid is yet to be determined.

A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth
____________________________________________
Agreed most people do not want to stay at home watching TV. That is a slow way to die. They want to get out and do things and travel.
Two of my employees are extending their retirement for 1-2 years to top up their discretionary spending funds. Smart move!

#120 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 12:16 pm

#106 Faron on 07.28.21 at 10:49 am

Incredible that she doubled down there and even dipped into her sleaze drenched (#MattGaetz), neo-right satchel for the tried-and-true “cancel culture”. Such a handy tool for trying to escape any scrutiny isn’t it? In this case it’s limp spaghetti when you need a mill bastard to escape your sexist prison. DUDE CANCELLED HIMSELF!

———

Oh, Faron, you seem to be outraged once again. How unusual.

I have a little Tasmanian devil cartoon figure on my desk with bobblehead and arms that wave with fury when I tap it as I just did. I’ve named it ‘F’, and tap it at appropriate intervals while reading blog comments.

#121 Russ on 07.28.21 at 12:24 pm

Love_The_Cottage on 07.28.21 at 11:21 am

#102 Linda on 07.28.21 at 10:37 am
A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth
____

Is there a study you can point to because I’ve not seen one with these facts.
==========================

No study to verify but I can say that we have budgeted to spend more in retirement, starting very soon.

Bear in mind that income allocated to investments go to zero, which is ~30% of net for me while working.

Cheers, R

#122 IHCTD9 on 07.28.21 at 12:51 pm

#116 Yukon Elvis on 07.28.21 at 11:51 am

A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth
++++++++++++++

I agree with that. When working there is not a lot of time to spend the money. In retirement there is lots of time to spend the money and having fun costs money. Boredom sucks.
________

I’ll definitely spend more during retirement – mainly because I’ll actually have some $ to spend for once!

Buying houses/raising + educating kids costs a mint.

At some point all that $ will stay in our bank account, the 2+K grocery bill will be less than 1K, the hydro and insurance bills will likely drop 25-30%, less spent in other areas too.

I guess that’s the bonus of living on income leftovers for decades – when you finally get to keep most of it – your brain tells you you’re rich! Everyone will be in a different boat, but for us we’ve got by a looong time on less than half our income – that is our normal.

Of course, if we develop a taste for travelling, fine food and wine, and brand new Diesel Denali’s and RMax 1000’s – then all bets are off.

#123 Faron on 07.28.21 at 1:04 pm

#119 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 12:16 pm

Isn’t there something in a religion about false idolatry?

Maybe take the Hindi approach of multiple idols and add to your collection a fat, laughing Buddha. I’m laughing at The Jaguar here. Hard.

#124 Faron on 07.28.21 at 1:08 pm

#105 Damifino on 07.28.21 at 10:42 am
#51 Faron

irrelevant

It’s relevant when he makes a destabilizing mockery of democracy.

#125 IHCTD9 on 07.28.21 at 1:09 pm

#102 Linda on 07.28.21 at 10:37 am
Living on $50K ‘in a big city’ in retirement doesn’t equate to dire poverty. IF the retiree has no debt, a $50K annual income (pre or post tax? the blog doesn’t say) will for most folks be more than adequate. Why? Because most retirees are past the acquisition of ‘stuff’. They already have vast quantities of ‘stuff’ – for the older retirees, they are trying to get rid of the stuff they have, because they don’t want the hassle of taking care of it.
___

I tend to agree, but I’m not there yet so no first hand experience. I do know several retired couples getting by fine on ~45K in 2021, in small town Ontario, albeit a modest retirement following a financially restrained life. Some still do a little work to stay comfy.

I’m already reorganizing my “stuff” getting rid of what I don’t want to look at anymore, and replacing worn out equipment etc.. with top quality replacements. I don’t want to arrive at retirement with a bunch of junk and headaches to deal with.

I do see a quick 100K debit for a few “wants” upon retiring, but any other “retirement costs” of note will be doled out slowly as the years roll by. Eventually I expect some significant costs related to health is highly probable, but “fun” retirement is probably over at that point. This may be where the “expensive” retirement begins…

#126 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 1:13 pm

Give a man a fish, he owes you one fish. Teach a man to fish, you give up your monopoly on fisheries.

Give a man a fish, he eats for a day. Give a woman a fish and you’ll always be known as that ‘weird fish guy’.

Teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime. Teach a man to create an artificial shortage of fish and he will eat steak.

#127 Cancel Culture Guy on 07.28.21 at 1:14 pm

#106 Faron

Another ‘cancel culture’ skeptic I see.

I’m seeing a lot of people on the right say ‘screw it, they made the rules, let’s play their game’.

About time.

As soon as the right learns the way to defeat the left is to make them live by their own rules, it’ll all be over but the crying.

It’s going to get really ugly though, it’s a dirty game.

You got a tiny wee taste of it yourself, or so you feared. Surprised you don’t believe it’s a thing.

#128 Surprised Guy on 07.28.21 at 1:24 pm

#110 Quintilian

Listen, there are still millions of people who believe Putin had a pee tape and that the Russians hacked the 2016 election and Trump was not really the winner.

And get this, the very same people think there is no way any election can be hacked since it’s now 2020 and their guy won. 80 million mail in ballots and all!

I know, right!?

Not only that, they say anyone who questions the 2020 election should be barred from social media (and worse) but questioning 2016 should get you the Pulitzer prize.

Yup, lotta dumb people out there for sure.

#129 the jaguar on 07.28.21 at 2:00 pm

@119 sail away
You need to add the S for Sean. Who got his ass handed to him not long ago. Like Jekyl and Hyde.

#130 you know what else is funny on 07.28.21 at 2:07 pm

That lefties think conservatives trying to keep spending under control is a thing.

That war was lost long ago. Nobody cares.

If a conservative tries to cut $3 allocated to a study about unicorns being real or not, media immediately runs front page stories about how the cuts will kill someone, somewhere, somehow.

So why bother.

Nobody cares about debt anymore, that ship has sailed.

But at least the guys who cut taxes let people keep some of their own money.

If government wants to spend it, let them print it. Nobody cares about that anymore either.

Debt, deficits and devaluation, lol, silly boomers.

#131 BillyBob on 07.28.21 at 2:08 pm

#119 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 12:16 pm
#106 Faron on 07.28.21 at 10:49 am

Oh, Faron, you seem to be outraged once again. How unusual.

I have a little Tasmanian devil cartoon figure on my desk with bobblehead and arms that wave with fury when I tap it as I just did. I’ve named it ‘F’, and tap it at appropriate intervals while reading blog comments.

====================================================

Guy’s heading for an early grave if he carries on like this. Such rage and hate are incredibly self-destructive. Hope it’s just his internet persona but the spittle-flecked rants are just too consistently furious, not to mention frequent, to not be for real. He really does seem to believe he can “win the internet”.

No wonder he looks so old for his age.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.21 at 2:28 pm

@#127 Surprised?
“Yup, lotta dumb people out there for sure.”

++++

Yes, and they voted for that grifter Trump…..twice.

#133 Planetgoofy on 07.28.21 at 2:32 pm

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 3:51 pm
@#101 PlanetGoofy
“Time to go watch the grass grow….
Piece out!”
+++
Actually its slow at work this week.
Most of the staff off on well deserved holidays.
I cut the grass at the shop, watered the plants today, cleaned up the warehouse a bit..
Cranked off some quotes.
Received a shipment of material.
I’d rather peace out unless you were talking about a piece of pizza.
————————————–
LOL good catch but I meant piece….
Been fixing my Lance camper has 2 slides. Just reinforcing the bottoms a bit. It rides on my big dually dirty diesel.
Well My lawn is completely dead ACCEPT for the hydro seed side. Had to water to get it germinated. So its growing FAST.
Thankfully Powell River has a lot of lakes therefor we rarely have water restrictions. The heats picking up again not good. 5 weeks no rain.
Pray for RAIN!

#134 Penny Henny on 07.28.21 at 2:36 pm

A hugely common mistake: underestimating income required in retirement. Most people spend more when they stop working, not less. You will see. – Garth
////////////

You say this but you have also said many times that most have very little saved for retirement. It surely can’t be both.

Of course it is. Most will live far less fulsome retirements than they wish, or will admit. – Garth

#135 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 2:42 pm

#122 Faron on 07.28.21 at 1:04 pm

I’m laughing at The Jaguar here. Hard.

——-

Snidely. Not good for chakras.

‘Get rid of all bitterness, rage and anger, brawling and slander, along with every form of malice. Be kind and compassionate to one another, forgiving each other, just as in Christ God forgave you.’

-Ephesians 4:30-32

#136 Faron on 07.28.21 at 2:59 pm

#130 BillyBob on 07.28.21 at 2:08 pm
#119 Sail Away on 07.28.21 at 12:16 pm

Nice work guys. Thanks to Scaron’s handy pyramid we now know you are operating at level 3 — attacking tone rather than substance (because you have zero). You confuse how I use tone for fun while going to levels 5 to 7 to take out The Jaguar’s trash as did Oakville and Not Fooled. Oh, and look, by referencing this chart again I’m approaching level 5-6. And you two are stuck with tone, no substance. Read up on cargo cult science.

Hey BillyBob, nice work showing you don’t care and how happy go lucky you are by failing to control your urge to wade in here with a sad comment on my appearance. Almost as cultured as the Nanaimo putrifacting yoghurt pile we all know and love.

And I hope at least some of you are laughing. I sure am.

Looking forward to your *yawn* indicative of simmering hatred of being called out by a nerd.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.21 at 3:03 pm

5 Cuban Generals dead in 10 days?

https://theprovince.com/news/world/cuba-not-saying-much-about-the-deaths-of-five-high-ranking-generals-in-10-days?__vfz=medium%3Dstandalone_content_recirculation_with_ads

Could Covid be doing in 10 days what the US military couldnt in 60 years of trying?

#138 Shawn Allen on 07.28.21 at 3:10 pm

How much will you spend in retirement?

For almost everyone it depends what is available to spend.

I spend more since I retired from full time work 6 years ago. Because I have the money and the time. I have enough investment savings and no need to dip into them. So I spend all of my pension and my part-time income. (A business with extremely flexible hours). No reason to add to savings at this point.

If all you have is $50k a year then you will find a way to live on that. If you have $100k to spend in retirement you likely will spend it. Especially the early years when you are healthy enough to travel and/or winter in the south. Well, that could last 30 years.

#139 Left GTA on 07.28.21 at 3:13 pm

Garth if I have a portfolio spread between rrsp’s, lira, tfsa’s and non reg joint and it is 60/40 pretty similar to what you suggest what percentage can I withdraw in retirement? I have read that 3-4% seems to be the number but I feel like 5% may be possible.

#140 Dogman01 on 07.28.21 at 6:26 pm

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.21 at 3:03 pm

5 Cuban Generals dead in 10 days?

————————–

Have a watch of the Netflix series “How to become a Tyrant”

https://www.netflix.com/ca/title/80989772

The Look on those guys faces as their names are called in Saddam’s meeting….pure terror.

#141 Joe on 07.29.21 at 12:21 am

I am an old wrinkle pretty worried about putting money into fixed income today. You make me think.

Not sure of your advis the other day about borrowing to invest, however, when you are floating in Fix’s and bond funds w
Why not just take itout of the fishes?
Joe