Lessons

My flinty-eyed, iron-spined portfolio-manager colleague told you on the weekend not to wimp out and try to time a market exit. Doug was right. We see it all. The. Time.

When Covid crashed into our world, equities dropped over a third in the space of a few weeks. The fastest bear market ever. Day traders, DIY investors, hedgies, over-leveraged players and people ruled by headlines and emotions headed for the exits. Those without balanced portfolios learned fast why it makes sense to have fixed income assets as well as the cowboy ones. Guts splattered everywhere.

The bottom came in the third week of March, 2020. In the days following, our lead market trader-wizard Ross was busy doing what made sense. Trimming bonds and buying equities. Meanwhile this pathetic blog was making the point that every pandemic in the history of man (can I still say that?) has been temporary. They peter out or they get fixed. But they always end. So why on earth would anyone sell at the bottom?

Sigh. Human nature. It’s not always our friend. It’s why we buy high (like real estate now) and sell low (like stocks last March).

But wait. Aren’t the financial markers also sitting at a record peak?

You bet. Another record, in a string so far during 2021. The S&P 500 is a broad index which is more reflective of the US economy than the Dow. So far this year it’s gained 17.5%. The advance over the last 12 months has been just a hair under 40%. From the low point in March of ’20, the index has gained 92%.

So surely it has to crash, right?

Not so fast. Contractions, crashes and recessions are always short – measured in months. Recoveries and expansions are always long – measured in years. The average one is five to seven years in duration. This one’s a baby – just a year old, and history would suggest there’s a lot yet to come.

Look at some recent data.

US employment rose by 850,000 in June – a huge number following May’s print of 583,000 and far better than the market expectation of 700,000. Corporate earnings, meanwhile, are soaring. A quarter of the S&P companies have reported in this period with earnings-per-share ahead of analysts’ forecasts almost 90% of the time. The rate of revenue growth (over 74%) is the best on record after the surge following the credit crisis in 2009. This week big guys like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Tesla, Shopify, Pfizer and a host of others report.

But, I hear you moan, what about the Delta virus, the masses of unvaxed Americans and the potential of a Fourth Wave? Yup, that’s a threat. If there are more quarantines or widespread lockdowns Mr. Market will not be a happy dude. But, sheesh, this would be the fourth episode, and we’ve already survived three. Vast numbers of people have been inoculated, suggesting hospitalizations and deaths will be contained. So if we got through waves one through three without such protection, Number 4 will come and go. No reason to panic.

But, the naysayers gasp further, what about those bond yields? They’re stuck at low levels meaning investors think the economy will slow and we’ll all perish.

True, bond prices have gone up and yields dropped. But this is due more to bond-buying than anything else – not only by CBs but also large pension funds and other portfolio managers who have become overweighted in stocks thanks to the surge of the last year. Sixty-forty. That saved a lot of butts in 2020. The appetite for fixed income is reasonably high right now since prudent people are restoring the weightings that make a balanced portfolio work.

And so should you.

When markets crashed in despair – as I told you – we shed some bonds and nibbled on equities. When markets erupt in euphoria, it’s probably time to trim the sails and take on some ballast.

As Doug said, you just never know what you don’t know.

About the picture: “I admit to being a lurker, but hope that I have sucked up enough to someday see my favourite guy grace a column,” writes Betty. “I wish I could be a responsible dog owner but I work too many hours and I don’t think it’s fair to leave a best friend home alone for that long.  So, the best I get is to see this big guy for visits.  This is my son’s dog, Vader (aka Smush). He is a devourer of carrots, a stealer of couches and blankets, and adored by all the kids in the neighbourhood (his and mine).  There is a stigma surrounding Dobermans, but he is a gorgeous, well-behaved gentle giant who gets lots of compliments and automatically lies down when he sees little dogs.  When I need a dog fix, I tell my son to send me a pic.”

116 comments ↓

#1 Ace of Space on 07.26.21 at 4:11 pm

As Doug said, you just never know what you don’t know.

______________________

Truer words have never been spoken.
And he proved that when he said “I know. Kelowna thinks it’s sooo great.”

—Doug

This coming from a guy who lives in Toronto! Has he ever even been here before?

He lives there. – Garth

#2 Mostly Peaceful on 07.26.21 at 4:13 pm

With investing the skies are never perfectly blue, storms will come, but the sun always shines through eventually and always outlasts the grey skies. Ignore the waves in front of you and always keep your eyes on the distant horizon. Happy investing.

#3 TurnerNation on 07.26.21 at 4:13 pm

Inflation watch. Big spikes in
Coffee: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=KC&p=d1
Cocoa:https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=h1
Copper: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=d1

Oil looks ready to break upwards; Steel stocks doing well (SLX.US ETF)

————–
————–
— Our rulers see us as unclean animals – what have I been saying!!
Rights are selfish ideals. Submit Comrade.
Follow the Rules. You must no longer remember the time without rules!!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/covid-sydney-police-punish-anti-lockdown-protesters
“Sydney police fine hundreds of anti-lockdown protesters for ‘filthy, risky behaviour’
Prime minister denounces ‘selfish’ protesters who marched against coronavirus measures as police taskforce traces everyone who broke rules”

……………….

— The goal of all this testing, Ancestry, etc is our DNA. We are the product on the open air tax farm.

“Would you want your DNA or other healthcare data going to an authoritarian regime with a record of exploiting
DNA for repression and surveillance? For years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has collected large healthcare data sets from the U.S. and nations around the globe, through both legal and illegal means, for purposes only it can control.
-https://www.dni.gov/files/NCSC/documents/SafeguardingOurFuture/NCSC_China_Genomics_Fact_Sheet_2021.pdf

#4 Apocalypse NOW on 07.26.21 at 4:19 pm

Not so fast.

https://pro.3founders-newsletters.com/p/SSI_SSIDeathSpiral_1120/LSSIWB30/Full?s1=04_59860391_6e563d1e-5950-45d9-bdb2-36a8ff4f74f9&h=true

“On October 14, 2021, the U.S. will
experience a $4.2 trillion financial extinction event”

“This singular event will lead to catastrophic economic destruction and social unrest far beyond what we’ve seen until now…

In short, things are about to get much, much worse.

I’m talking about a massive wave of corporate, municipal and personal bankruptcies…

Widespread bank failures…

A 70% stock market decline…

A 25% unemployment rate…

And unprecedented social unrest that will lead to martial law being imposed throughout the United States.

Let me be clear…

My purpose isn’t to strike fear in you.

I just want to make clear that when this coming crisis is over, there will only be two types of people…

Those who were prepared for what’s coming…

And those who desperately wished they had paid more attention.”

PREPARE

#5 tbone on 07.26.21 at 4:22 pm

Now thats a dog … what a beast !
And i dont even like dogs , but i hate cats .
Cats are useless .

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 4:30 pm

@#3 Apocalypse forever

Its been a while since “Poxy” reared his head.

#7 Linda on 07.26.21 at 4:30 pm

For all those who would like to time the markets in order to ‘get rich quick’, just remember: it was the tortoise who won the race. B&D rocks!

#8 NOSTRADAMUS on 07.26.21 at 4:32 pm

FLY IN THE NOSE COMMENT!
The corporate owned media, oh the unbiased media, in my opinion nothing but a big megaphone for the financial industry. Come on in, the waters fine, no danger here, the sharks are all held back by the shark nets, meaning (government interventions) tons of liquidity, zero interest rates, covenant light lending standards. Bang your head against the wall. The shark nets are old and rusty and the sharks are in a feeding frenzy. People will soon come to realize that predators thrive on short memories. I’m on my throne and I will not step down.

#9 Surfside Boomer on 07.26.21 at 4:34 pm

I’ve had two female Dobermans and I concur with Betty. They are wonderful companions and very gentle.

Thank you Garth for all your great advice. I’ve been direct investing for about 7 years and I love how my accounts are doing. When you advise every so often how much we should be making on our accounts mine are usually a higher percent. That is how I know I’m doing just fine. I keep my TFSA and unregistered accounts balanced. No stocks, just a few ETF’s.

#10 Dolce Vita on 07.26.21 at 4:36 pm

“And so should you.”

I did that today. About a couple of hours before your Blog. Indexed ETF that doesn’t grow much BUT doles out dividends in the +20% range (monthly) – my version of Fixed Income.

Like you Garth I believe the show is just starting to get underway. More to come, much more.

——————-

Delta ought to be a non issue in Canada.

Delta when (if?) it hits Canada will probably have high cases relative to prior waves but the rest will be +80% reductions in hospital, +95% reductions in deaths. What’s happened in the UK and just starting in the EU.

Deaths completely DISCONNECTED from new cases.

Some of the vaxd will still contract Delta, as it is highly contagious & has a high viral load, BUT the idea of vaxing is to keep you out of hospital and the morgue. Per the above the vaxes are doing their job.

Be wise even if double dose vaxd. You can still get infected and pass it on.

And the 6.46 million of you UNVAXD, get vaxd before Delta comes in force. Look what’s happening to the unvaxd in the USA at present if you have any doubts.

#11 Don Guillermo on 07.26.21 at 4:40 pm

#213 Stoph on 07.26.21 at 4:19 pm
#211 SunShowers on 07.26.21 at 3:41 pm
“Nobody gets to build a dwelling in public green space in a city of millions where trees and grass are precious things.”

Unless that green space gets sold to a developer who then bulldozes it to put up high-rise condos, turning the “precious trees and grass” that were once public property accessible to all, into private property accessible only to the wealthy.

That is enclosure. It is theft, and it is the essence of capitalism.

Name the last time a Toronto park was bulldozed. – Garth

————————————————————–

The idea has been floated about in Vancouver to convert public golf courses to housing. I’ll agree that maybe golf courses aren’t the best use of public land, but to converting it to residential real estate doesn’t make sense.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/10/30/housing-short-public-golf-courses-converted-to-residential-property/
***********************************
Sounds familiar

Caracas Mayor Announces Expropriation of Golf Courses

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/1916

#12 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.26.21 at 4:42 pm

I was quite surprised yesterday to see how otherwise people on this blog who seem Well educated, Intelligent and Extremely well spoken can get so easily distracted by the transparent diversion happening in the Western world.
I do not pretend to be any of the above but I grew up in the Eastern European block and know firsthand how it looks and where socialism leads to.
First -The diversion target: the rich ,the profiteers and the speculators, straight from the communism verbage used in the past.
Thing is Capital exists to make more a.k.a Profit . Remove the profit and capital goes away .
If you want cheap RE the only way to get that is :
Government built co-op housing ( pay 10%-20% of income) – I lived in one of those back in my home country, all I can say it that it was an affordable place to live
Government provided incentives to private owners to build true affordable housing with rent controls .

Nationalizing the existing house stock in one way or the other or punishing private ownership will simply make them flee which will result in less housing in the long run.

SECOND : All of you socialist leaning should remember that when socialists took power after eating the few rich(1%) they went after the middle class ,then the intellectuals – people like you well spoken with an opinion ,why ,because if you spoke against previous social order (wrong as it was) chances are you would again ,so you become the enemy overnight.
And if you think it cannot happen again , think again ,revolutions even just as they are cannot be controlled, they descend into chaos and social collapse.

Let me repeat, to fix the RE affordability Government must own or heavily subsidize it ,no other way. Focus on that and demand that Governments start building co-ops or provide incentives ( free land , no development fees ) to private enterprises in exchange for rent contolled developments.

#13 Big Bucks on 07.26.21 at 4:42 pm

March 2009 the Dow was at 7000—12 years later it is at 35,000.Nuff said.

#14 You know Val on 07.26.21 at 4:44 pm

Delta rules

#15 Inequity on 07.26.21 at 4:45 pm

#3 Apocalypse NOW

Welcome back, we were worried you died from one of the other end of the world events that have been going on. :P

#16 Lee on 07.26.21 at 4:46 pm

I do not believe it is fair to say contractions are measured in months and upswings in years. The pullback in July of 2000 did not reach full recovery until 2007. And then, the next one in 2009 did not see full recovery until mid-2013. Those are seven and six year periods virtually back to back where the market did nothing. If you were invested in 2000 as I was you saw pretty much sideways momentum for 13 years, except for new money brought in during the later half of each “U-shaped” recovery. This is what makes a lot of people fear being too heavily invested in the stock market. A lag can last a lot longer than you suggest.

#17 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 4:50 pm

Mr. Market is due for a good smack on the head with the frying pan from Mrs. Market.
The guy is far too f(risky).

#18 Lead Paint on 07.26.21 at 4:54 pm

#3 Apocalypse NOW on 07.26.21 at 4:19 pm

If you won’t stop with your fear mongering, at least change your name back to Apocalypse 2020 so newcomers can see just how accurate your predictions are.

#19 Concerned Citizen on 07.26.21 at 5:01 pm

The primary impetus behind bubble real estate – negative real interest rates – is the same impetus behind bubble stock markets. I think Garth is right on housing and wrong on stocks. An objective look at valuations relative to history show this to be true. It’s an everything bubble – bonds, real estate, stock, NFTs, crypto, used cars, boats, you name it.

If real rates were even 0% – as opposed to the -5% they are now – major stock indices would decline 40-50% with ease. Fortunately for asset holders, the central bankers have outright abandoned their inflation mandates and decided to throw young people and the poor under the bus in order to keep the everything bubble inflated. I thought at least in Canada we were more enlightened than that, but apparently we have other ideas. New Zealand has a bubble too, but at least its central bank has realized it and ended its extraordinary measures.

Perhaps the Bank of Canada will be forced to stop when the older middle class starts noticing how much less their paycheques get them. It’s the poor and young people that will notice first, but the central bankers obviously don’t care about them. I mean, they say they do, but their actions tell a very different story.

#20 Grumpy Old Lefty on 07.26.21 at 5:03 pm

This is a left-wing rant that a lot of right-wingers might like. Because the news sickens me too these days. It’s all identity politics, and the vast majority of it lacks perspective or even the faintest familiarity with history.

Yes, residential schools were terrible. Anytime you forcibly remove children from their families and culture, you’d better have a compelling reason. Our forebearers (Macdonald, Langevin, Ryerson, et al, in fact, practically everyone back then) thought they did: to “civilize” a “barbarian” culture, to bring them the advantages of the European Enlightenment (reason, science, medicine, progress). Were they right? Debatable in their objectives. Most certainly wrong in their means. They caused much unnecessary cruelty and suffering.

But was it “genocide”? Cultural genocide, most certainly. They explicitly wanted to remove the “Indian” from the child. But genocide? As in Hitler trying to physically exterminate the Jews? Or the Serbs conquering a Bosnian (Muslim) town and having the men and boys dig trenches so they could be machine-gunned into their own graves, and then raping all the women to implant their own “superior” seed? Hardly. It demeans the seriousness of the word to call it such. Holocaust survivors should be outraged.

First Nations lose many potential allies, and risk losing actual ones, when they argue such Or tear down or deface statues of men like Macdonald and Ryerson who may have been shaped by the misguided (in retrospect) values of their era, but who intended good, and without whom we may not have had free public education (Ryerson), of even the nation of Canada (Macdonald).

And how about “Black Lives Matter”? Do they? Of course! Responding “All lives matter” misses the point (sorry conservatives). There has been, and is, systemic racism in our society that must be eradicated. But again. some perspective is required. First, progress has been made and continues to be made (see Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now). Second, where are the vast majority of black lives being lost? Not in Minnesota or Chicago or Toronto, but in Somalia, Ethiopia and other parts of Africa where sustained conflict and drought are killing thousands of young blacks.

So instead of spending $6 million (it will be FAR more) on re-naming Dundas St., why don’t we spend it (and more) on improving opportunities TODAY for the disadvantaged in BIPOC communities? Instead of self-flagellating for the sins of long-dead ancestors, lets do something more productive NOW.

#21 Dogman01 on 07.26.21 at 5:05 pm

Cracking Heads – great Comments\observations yesterday.

The Canadian Standard of living has been in decline for 40+years.

All wage earners are on a steep decline;
• Competing against more labour supply, via Globalization & Immigration
• Less global demand for “workers” – via Technology, Automation
• Wages losing to actual Inflation

TBTB are now pushing “Identity Politics” Climate Alarmism as a strategy to distract the young from examining what is going on economically. Using these causes as Religion has always been used, “An Opiate for the Masses”. Look at basic shelter prices (fact) contrasted with the manufactured image of our benevolent Middle class supporting Trudeau, hmmm.

Our standard of living is declining. This will leave Canadians more dependent, powerless and beholden, just like the lower classes of all Human societies have always been.

The post WWII Middle class was an aberration, the post WWII population had a cadre of organized, motivated, trained individuals sharing a similar ethos, they were in a position to demand no return to economic situation of the early 1900’s, Communism was waiting in he wings as a alternative system. About 1971 it seems this social contract was terminated https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

“Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.” -Frederick Douglass

“You will own nothing…and will be happy”.

#22 Summertime on 07.26.21 at 5:08 pm

Market rally is based on excessive money printing.

Here housing is all that is left from the economy.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/residential-investment-overtakes-business-in-share-of-canadian-economy-cibc-173844587.html

The best performing stock market is … Venezuela.

https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market

#23 Dogman01 on 07.26.21 at 5:10 pm

As a GenX lower middle class I recognized some time ago that the middle class is being constructively destroyed; , good jobs with benefits and pension very hard to find, massive inflation in education credentials required.

Garth’s blog showed the way out of this financial gravity well but time was running out. I am not sure if the young will be able to cross the event horizon to Financial Independence.

“Concentrate on using your life to achieve some good for yourself, and others. Railing against the gods wastes your most precious gift, while changing nothing.” — Garth Turner

“So, that’s one reason we have rich people. They invest more than they save. They diversify. They’re unhouse-horny. They buy stuff that pays them to own it. They take less risk. They shun debt. And they know it’s not just how much you earn, but what you do with it.” – Garth Turner

“Millennials would be fools to expect their lives to unfold as carbon copies of their parents’. No profligate hippiedom, no finding-myself-in-Europe, no sha-na-nah for them. This is Darwin, baby. And you’d best know that now.” – Garth Turner

“Own the banks, don’t owe them!” – Garth Turner

“It’s not what you can carry that counts, but what carries you”. – Garth Turner

“Of course, nobody listens to me. I’m like the guy who gives you the colonoscopy. You know when you hear the rubber gloves snap you should have eaten way more fibre. It’s the epiphany”. – Garth Turner

And for the future I think these pearls of self-preservation may have originated with Garth

“Live quietly among the masses.”
“Be slippery and difficult”

#24 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 5:11 pm

#205 Barb on 07.26.21 at 1:16 pm
BC’s premier Horgan likely has a tattoo of a RED armband. At least he should, after he suggested lumber profits should go to fighting fires.

https://www.vernonmorningstar.com/business/record-b-c-lumber-profits-should-go-to-wildfire-fight-horgan-says/

How does he spell C O M M U N I S M ?
————
BC’s very own Hulk Ho(r)gan a COMMIE!?
I agree, sometimes he shoots off his mouth, but he’s been a good Premier so far.
Made the tough decisions to get us through the virus.
Liked it how he dealt with the Amis on the border and cruise ship issues.
I think he’s asking a fair question.
Like we should be thinking about charging unvaccinated Covid patients with at least part of the cost of their treatment.
Seems fair.
Right CEF
BTW the tat is on his “left” butt, and  it’s the Hammer&Sicle

#25 Cristian on 07.26.21 at 5:14 pm

“When markets crashed in despair – as I told you – we shed some bonds and nibbled on equities. When markets erupt in euphoria, it’s probably time to trim the sails and take on some ballast.”

Isn’t that called rebalancing? And isn’t it supposed to be done no more than once or twice a year? Isn’t tinkering too much with the portfolio usually unnecessary and even counterproductive?
And what is euphoria? How do we exactly define and narrow in time the exact moment when euphoria occurs and it is time to rebalance?
What is despair? When exactly is the time to act on that one?…

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 5:14 pm

Should we start a “go Fund Me” page for the CBC?

Apparently $1.2 BILLION dollars last year …..wasnt enough….

https://www.pugetsoundradio.com/2021/07/26/cbc-still-under-immense-financial-pressure-despite-billions-in-taxpayer-funding/

#27 Shaun G Burns on 07.26.21 at 5:30 pm

Hey Apocalypse Now,
I just googled your best financial wizard friend Summers working from his Baltimore, Md crystal ball laboratory. Can’t be bothered with attaching the link… nobsimreviews.com
His “American Death Spiral prediction back on Nov. 29, 2020 – On Jan. 15, 2021 the U.S. will experience $7.4 Trillion financial extinction event.” You and Summers seem similar to the old guy showing up in many MSMs over the years and on radio’s Coast to Coast with Art Bell and George Norry. Roughly ever six months to a year he predicted with great reasoning and explanations that….. the world would explode and end all life on our little blue marble. I just looked out the window, all good. Here is my prediction, Mr. Summers needs to lift weights consistently to build up his arm so he can continue to throw accurate financial date and dollar predictions at his office dart board.

#28 Steve French on 07.26.21 at 5:41 pm

But but but…..

CAnada has so many street names to cancel !

60 streets in Toronto alone must be stricken from the historical record!

ANd the same must be repeated across the country.

No street name justice, no peace.

In fact all street names should be numbers to avoid offending anyone.

AFtre that task is completed the Chosen Woke will resume burning down churches.

#29 macduff on 07.26.21 at 6:26 pm

#12- appreciate your post. We simply don’t have the lived experience in Canada to see the red flags and this is indeed worrisome. You have provided that.

#30 Quintilian on 07.26.21 at 6:34 pm

#4 Apocalypse NOW on 07.26.21 at 4:19 pm
“Not so fast.
“On October 14, 2021, the U.S. will
experience a $4.2 trillion financial extinction event””
Not likely, there are too many available levers and knowledge for the event to unfold and take down the entire economy.

Although I will admit to being in the bear camp at his time.

The reason is that in mid 2019 there were signs of the global economy slow down.
An overextended economic cycle that had lasted for over a decade, mainly on the back of cheap credit, was coming to an end.

Then along came Covid. The Central Bankers, took the signal from their political masters and pulled the lever on the spigots wide open.

And so, I think we are overdue for a doozy.

#31 Drew on 07.26.21 at 6:38 pm

April 2020 was for buying; so many great discounts!

#32 Nonplused on 07.26.21 at 6:43 pm

#12 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.26.21 at 4:42 pm

“SECOND : All of you socialist leaning should remember that when socialists took power after eating the few rich(1%) they went after the middle class ,then the intellectuals – people like you well spoken with an opinion ,why ,because if you spoke against previous social order (wrong as it was) chances are you would again ,so you become the enemy overnight.
And if you think it cannot happen again , think again ,revolutions even just as they are cannot be controlled, they descend into chaos and social collapse.”

As Margaret Thatcher used to say; “The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”

People see Jeff Bezos take a joy ride to space and they figure, “Man that guy has a lot of money!” And he does, relative to you and me. But how much does he have really? A lot, if you count “net worth” as money (which it is not, not directly anyway.) If he could sell all his Amazon shares at the current price he could generate up to $200 billion is cash. Of course then there would be a hefty capital gains tax, so let’s say $150 billion.

So let’s look at the US Federal deficit. In 2020 it was roughly $3.0 trillion. That of course was high so an average over the last 10 years of $1.5 trillion might be a better estimate.

So let’s see, $1.5 trillion divided by 200 billion, hang on here a sec, (how many zeros are in a trillion?) that means Bezos entire fortune would cover 13% of a typical deficit! 49 days! Not even 2 months! Then we would have to move on to the next billionaire! And this does not even attempt to address the outstanding debt!

So there are 2 problems with this strategy, who is going to buy all these assets and what will be left of the economy once all the capital has been liquidated?

And after we have run out of billionaires, it will definately be time to go after millionaires. And after that just about everyone else including home owners.

The economy cannot function without the accumulation of capital. It costs just too darn much to build a chip factory or autoplant. If we take up socialism, a period of relative calm will appear as we eat our planting seeds, but after they’re gone no more food.

#33 Don Guillermo on 07.26.21 at 6:53 pm

#216 Jib Halyard on 07.26.21 at 4:56 pm
Garth, something I never see mentioned in your blog (or maybe you did but I missed it) is the fact that it is impossible to build anything denser than single-family homes throughout most of our major cities. If there really is a housing crisis, then how come the Canada Housing Crisis activists never call for a wholesale suspension of zoning restrictions in residential areas? Certainly letting developers build whatever they want wherever they want would go a long way to opening up supply? Oh right, I forgot, something something capitalism…
***********************************
Calgary is constantly revising zoning to increase inner city density.

#34 Stone on 07.26.21 at 7:01 pm

#25 Cristian on 07.26.21 at 5:14 pm
“When markets crashed in despair – as I told you – we shed some bonds and nibbled on equities. When markets erupt in euphoria, it’s probably time to trim the sails and take on some ballast.”

Isn’t that called rebalancing? And isn’t it supposed to be done no more than once or twice a year? Isn’t tinkering too much with the portfolio usually unnecessary and even counterproductive?
And what is euphoria? How do we exactly define and narrow in time the exact moment when euphoria occurs and it is time to rebalance?
What is despair? When exactly is the time to act on that one?…

———

Cristian. Cristian. Cristian. All these questions. You’re making everyone nervous. People don’t like to be overwhelmed by too many questions. Their brains start to steam because of misuse. All of a sudden, the brain starts leaking from the ear. It gets ugly thereafter.

To answer your questions:
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Don’t care. It’s just spin.
Don’t care. It’s just spin. Again.
Don’t care. Still spin.
Don’t care. More spin. Again. Just rebalance when portfolio percentages get out of hand. Otherwise, stand back and let the portfolio do its thing.

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 7:13 pm

@#28 Steve French
“CAnada has so many street names to cancel !”

+++

Why stop at streets?
If you’re rewriting history lets go full hog.

Newfoundland …colonialist
Prince Edward Island… obscenely colonialist.
Nova Scotia…Latin colonialist
New Brunswick….sigh…colonialist.
Quebec…..a bastardized francophone version of Algonquin….it might be ok…. for now.
Ontario….. bastardized Iroquois…ok for now.
Manitoba….Cree….ok for now.
Sakatchewan…. Cree…. ok for now.
Alberta……Ugh. SOOOOO colonialist…The Daughter of good old Queen Vic…change it asap!
British Columbia….triple UGH. Talk about rubbing the 1st Nations face in their conquest…. Whats good for the Queen Charlotte’s is all Haida Gwaii to me……change it soonest.

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/earth-sciences/geography/origins-canadas-geographical-names/origin-names-canada-and-its-provinces-and-territories/9224

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 7:16 pm

@#24 Ponzies Political predicament

“BC’s very own Hulk Ho(r)gan a COMMIE!?”

+++

To be honest.
The younger voters refer to him as “Ho Joe”

#37 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 7:23 pm

#20 Grumpy Old Lefty on 07.26.21 at 5:03 pm

And how about “Black Lives Matter”? Do they? Of course! Responding “All lives matter” misses the point (sorry conservatives).

——–

Good slogans are not divisive and don’t need to be explained; ‘Black lives matter’ is divisive and unclear. Even Bernie Sanders responded, ‘Of course Black lives matter. All lives matter.’

Other bad slogans are ‘defund the police’ and ‘burn it all down’.

‘Make America Great Again’ was/is a fantastic slogan. Straightforward, unambiguous and all-encompassing.

#38 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 7:34 pm

#11 Don Guillermo on 07.26.21 at 4:40 pm
#213 Stoph on 07.26.21 at 4:19 pm
#211 SunShowers on 07.26.21 at 3:41 pm
“Nobody gets to build a dwelling in public green space in a city of millions where trees and grass are precious things.”

Unless that green space gets sold to a developer who then bulldozes it to put up high-rise condos, turning the “precious trees and grass” that were once public property accessible to all, into private property accessible only to the wealthy.

That is enclosure. It is theft, and it is the essence of capitalism.

Name the last time a Toronto park was bulldozed. – Garth

————————————————————–

The idea has been floated about in Vancouver to convert public golf courses to housing. I’ll agree that maybe golf courses aren’t the best use of public land, but to converting it to residential real estate doesn’t make sense.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/10/30/housing-short-public-golf-courses-converted-to-residential-property/
***********************************
Sounds familiar

Caracas Mayor Announces Expropriation of Golf Courses

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/1916
—————
I’m a golfer.
But I see firsthand that all the gophers (Bill Murray, Chaddy Shack) are in for  a shock.
Fees are going up. Far too hot to play without a cart which costs extra.
Golf courses are soacking up water like a giant sponge.
Not even talking about all the fertilizers that are draining into the creeks and ponds.
So, I think convert them into regular parks.
Plant lots of trees and put in some pitch and puts, so that everyone can have some fun.
Not just Trump.

#39 Barb on 07.26.21 at 7:45 pm

Vader’s beautiful, Betty!

#40 Oslerscodes on 07.26.21 at 7:47 pm

Thinking of trimming my overweight equity position.

But would it make more sense to buy bonds or pay my mortgage? Doesn’t that 2.7% payment eclipse any bond rate?

#41 Flop... on 07.26.21 at 7:48 pm

Betty’s version.

There is a stigma surrounding Dobermans, but he is a gorgeous, well-behaved gentle giant who gets lots of compliments and automatically lies down when he sees little dogs.

Mrs Flop’s version.

There is a stigma surrounding Tasmanians, but he is a gorgeous, well-behaved gentle giant who gets lots of compliments and automatically lies down when he sees little dogs…

M47BC

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 8:19 pm

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 7:13 pm
@#28 Steve French
“CAnada has so many street names to cancel !”

+++

Why stop at streets?
If you’re rewriting history lets go full hog.

Newfoundland …colonialist
Prince Edward Island… obscenely colonialist.
Nova Scotia…Latin colonialist
New Brunswick….sigh…colonialist.
Quebec…..a bastardized francophone version of Algonquin….it might be ok…. for now.
Ontario….. bastardized Iroquois…ok for now.
Manitoba….Cree….ok for now.
Sakatchewan…. Cree…. ok for now.
Alberta……Ugh. SOOOOO colonialist…The Daughter of good old Queen Vic…change it asap!
British Columbia….triple UGH. Talk about rubbing the 1st Nations face in their conquest…. Whats good for the Queen Charlotte’s is all Haida Gwaii to me……change it soonest.
————–
Just rename the whole country New Austria.
And make Arnie PM.
Simple.
Anyone, stealing flags and toppling statues will deal with the Terminator.

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 8:31 pm

New record set for house sold in Vancouver.
Point Grey.
Numbered company.
42 Mill.

#44 Faron on 07.26.21 at 8:46 pm

#37 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 7:23 pm
#20 Grumpy Old Lefty on 07.26.21 at 5:03 pm

‘Make America Great Again’ … unambiguous … all-encompassing.

HAH! That’s hilarious. You R a funny 1 Mr. Away.

Hmmm, “again” is pretty vague. But, it seems to point to the past when fewer and fewer Americans had any kinds of rights at all depending on how far back you go. So, also not all-encompassing. So, actually pretty vague and open to interpretation from racists all the way to stuffy country club conservatives. I guess you are right about all-encompassing. Such a big tent that it covers the city sewer.

Meanwhile, Black Lives Matter is pretty straight forward. I think it means that… um… ya know… the lives of black people matter. Thanks for reminding us how distorted the thinking of the MAGAts and yourself is.

#45 Faron on 07.26.21 at 8:54 pm

#42 Faron on 07.26.21 at 8:46 pm
#37 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 7:23 pm

Sorry, I marvel at the putrid little dung balls that dribble off your fingers sometimes.

How is saying that black lives matter divisive? It’s a positive statement full stop. It’s been made divisive for simpletons like yourself so that you have something to rally against and can thusly be controlled and taken advantage of. Your “cultured”ness is on par with a gallon of cream left to rot in a landfill.

#46 Trojan House on 07.26.21 at 9:03 pm

DELETED

#47 NSNG on 07.26.21 at 9:06 pm

#5 tbone on 07.26.21 at 4:22 pm

Cats aren’t useless. I lived in a house with a cat. Never had a mouse problem in 15 years. I moved into a house that had only dogs. It was overrun by mice.

They each have their role which is probably why they have both become popular as pets.

#48 Repurchase Disagreement on 07.26.21 at 9:10 pm

#4 Apocalypse NOW

I remember there was an end-of-the world event that was hyped in 2011. You know where I actually ended up that night??? Yep, I was backstage at a Bob Seger concert in Detroit! Much better than the world ending!!

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 9:10 pm

@#38 Putting Ponzie Pushes Park Paradise.

“Golf courses are soaking up water like a giant sponge.
Not even talking about all the fertilizers that are draining into the creeks and ponds.
So, I think convert them into regular parks.”

+++

You should golf in Burnaby.
Environmentally friendly, low or no fertilizers, recycled water for fairways…..and no homeless camps.

I think we should build warehouses on the dried out farmland in Surrey , Delta and Burns Bog.

Multi story chicken coops like the chain link cages in Hong Kong.
They boot the homeless out in the morning to aimlessly wander the neighborhoods, stealing, begging, etc.

Coming to a household garden near you……..

#50 Ace of Space on 07.26.21 at 9:18 pm

As Doug said, you just never know what you don’t know.

______________________

Truer words have never been spoken.
And he proved that when he said “I know. Kelowna thinks it’s sooo great.”

—Doug

This coming from a guy who lives in Toronto! Has he ever even been here before?

He lives there. – Garth

______________________________________

Good. Then he obviously knows why “Kelowna thinks it’s sooo great” ….because it is All he has to do is look out his window!

Which begs the question … why is Turner Investments looking for another person to service the area? Business is so good.

Remember … there’s only two kinds of people in this world. Those that live in Kelowna … and those that wished they did! Obviously Doug saw the light.

#51 espressobob on 07.26.21 at 9:30 pm

Doug Rowat spelled it out in a simple matter regarding emotion. Retail investing is a thick subject most neophytes never take the time to study.

Rash thinking usually leads to bad decisions.

#52 DON on 07.26.21 at 9:46 pm

#206 Barb on 07.26.21 at 1:16 pm
BC’s premier Horgan likely has a tattoo of a RED armband. At least he should, after he suggested lumber profits should go to fighting fires.

https://www.vernonmorningstar.com/business/record-b-c-lumber-profits-should-go-to-wildfire-fight-horgan-says/

How does he spell C O M M U N I S M ?

***********

Why the need to brand ideas…solutions as communism, socialism etc. No ism works well on its own. There are things that private sector should do and same for the public sector. If we were smart we would use a hybrid model.

Now back to using profits to ensure the future of continued profits. The forests are tinder dry as can be witnessed by the wilting maple leaves. Maple trees lining the dry creek and low river beds. We are not yet in August…peak fire season. Most of the land on Vancouver Island is owned by the timber companies who will be forced to pony up money if hell is unleashed here. Most timber on the mainland is crown land where forest companies get their fibre. Burnt trees…less fibre…bot good for any one.

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 9:48 pm

#43 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.26.21 at 8:31 pm
New record set for house sold in Vancouver.
Point Grey.
Numbered company.
42 Mill.
———–
Paid in Cash.
Was listed at 58 Mill.
Vancouver RE crashing?

#54 DON on 07.26.21 at 9:48 pm

Could COVID be similiar to the oil shock of the early 70s?

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.21 at 9:56 pm

@#50 Ace of Space
“Remember … there’s only two kinds of people in this world. Those that live in Kelowna … and those that wished they did!”
++++

Or

“Tourists that visited and were glad they were….Tourists”

How’s the smoke this week?
Can you see the other side of the lake?

#56 MD on 07.26.21 at 10:07 pm

MMT nothing will ever crash again. All central banks have the tools now like Japan did in 1989. Every year US govt will go into 5-7 trillion dollars more in debt just to keep the party going and FED will be buying most of it as there is no other option.

#57 Madchild on 07.26.21 at 10:21 pm

Kelowna businesses are shutting down left and right due to “Covid” exposures.

The latest victim is Sparkling Hill Resort. 10 days.

60% of all BC cases coming out of the Interior now as numbers start to trend higher again.

I guess people wanted to show up and see the wild fire smoke first hand as I suspect all of this travel to the area combine with the dropping of most safety measures in place before is behind the latest Covid spread. Hotels are booked.

Vaccines are good, but I think there is a false sense of security out there right now that everything is totally normal again. Businesses shutting doors due to staff getting sick in the middle of summer is not normal.

#58 Leo Trollstoy on 07.26.21 at 10:34 pm

Cropped Doberman ears for aesthetics

#59 truefacts on 07.26.21 at 10:37 pm

#44 Faron,

I think “Make America Great Again” was a call to reclaim the 1960s where middle class jobs (steel mill, car factory, etc) supported a family with only one parent needing to work (for those old enough to remember when most of the things in their houses were Made in the USA or Canada). That is why it resonated in many of the “rust belt” states which have been in decline for decades.

Shipping all these jobs overseas enriched the companies/shareholders, but not the workers.

Read Jeff Rubin’s book, “The Expendables”

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/617504/the-expendables-by-jeff-rubin/9780735279391

#60 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 10:50 pm

#37 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 7:23 pm
#45 Faron on 07.26.21 at 8:54 pm

Good slogans are not divisive and don’t need to be explained; ‘Black lives matter’ is divisive and unclear. Even Bernie Sanders responded, ‘Of course Black lives matter. All lives matter.’

———-

Sorry, I marvel at the putrid little dung balls that dribble off your fingers sometimes.

How is saying that black lives matter divisive? It’s a positive statement full stop. It’s been made divisive for simpletons like yourself so that you have something to rally against and can thusly be controlled and taken advantage of. Your “cultured”ness is on par with a gallon of cream left to rot in a landfill.

———-

Haha. So trigger.

How many hills have you tried to die on in the last, let’s say, two days?

Is outrage similar to endurance where the longer one trains, the longer and more intensely it can be maintained? Careful, though, I sense another uncontrolled spin and implosion approaching. Let’s call it the outrage bonk.

Anyway, here’s a good treatise on the subject, written by a Black woman (another race traitor similar to Candace Owens? Questions, questions):

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/files/pdf/20210224_Black_Lives_Matter_Orlu_COMMENTARY_FWEb.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjyy7ONmYLyAhVYKDQIHdEsDOY4ChAWMAB6BAgHEAI&usg=AOvVaw2M4SpUArVjk235rvrmSgZi

#61 Keith on 07.26.21 at 11:00 pm

#38 Ponzie #48 Crowdie

The public golf courses in Vancouver are Audubon Society Certified for their sensitive greenskeeping practices and provision of habitat for urban wildlife. Fertilizers are not the old school chemicals, and watering is minimized – just keeping the greens green.

Golf done properly is regarded as a soft land use these days, and converting green space to housing is not a gain for the environment. Three million in positive cash flow per year from the golf business isn’t to be sneezed at either.

TO: Board Members – Parks and Recreation FROM: General Manager -…
parkboardmeetings.vancouver.ca › 2004 › 040308

municipal golf courses recognized as fully certified properties by the Audubon Cooperative Sanctuary System of Canada. Final Certification was awarded to Fraserview Golf Course on October 31, 2003, while certificates were awarded to McCleery and Langara on January 20, 2004

#62 Capt. Serious on 07.26.21 at 11:09 pm

I’m fully invested but absolutely think this market is overvalued. We have leading tech companies trading at over 10 times sales. The math on that simply does not work. Expectations are out of hand and people are going to be disappointed. TINA though, so I guess we’re all down the same trail, wherever it leads.

#63 NSNG on 07.27.21 at 12:21 am

Regarding undeclared cash rents, the CRA could easily recoup a lot of the rents just by paying a bounty of 50% of all rents recovered to the one who turns the cheats in.

It wouldn’t cost them a thing and if they needed to they could take it out of penalties, not just rents. I’m sure there are plenty of people who have been paying cash for years who may not have a good relationship with their LL for whatever reasons. That would be a nice chunk of change for a’poor’ renter.

#64 alexinvestor on 07.27.21 at 12:36 am

A couple of thoughts that I read about. The Fed is deathly afraid of a stock market crash because most of the rich made their money from the stock market (not earned income), and since the rich pay the majority of the taxes, the Fed will actively work to support the stock market. Also bond yields are low due to demand for collateral.

#65 Dr V on 07.27.21 at 1:55 am

61 Keith – thank you for that information

#66 Diamond Dog on 07.27.21 at 4:56 am

When markets erupt in euphoria, it’s probably time to trim the sails and take on some ballast. – Garth

I’d call this market Euphoric. Getting out towards the end of earnings season seems right to me if one wants to time it. Even now works. Lets face it, valuations are “frothy” to the point where we don’t want to talk about it.

S/P price to earnings:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Price to revenue (has it ever been this high?):

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales

Price to book is near 2000’s peak:

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book

When valuations rise so does risk, there’s no other way to put it. We hear about all the money the U.S. Federal government has spent, some 40% of the annual U.S. economy in just 2 years (not counting state and municipal) and about how much money is sloshing around, but fail to recognize just how big a drop in revenue the economy truly experienced.

We talk about how low rates are as reasons to hang in there but after a while one has to look at the reasons why. We see a big jump (25% annual) in housing valuations pumping money into the North American markets from it’s wealth effect, but turn a blind eye to the fact that this is rear view mirror and this next year can’t repeat. Housing markets as they say, are also “frothy”. Where’s that next wealth effect coming from, anyone?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/26/housing-boom-is-over-as-new-home-sales-fall-to-pandemic-low.html

Are we simply going to earn it now? You wouldn’t know it from the drought stricken west. We talk about how this pandemic is temporary and would pass and how vaccines would be all the difference, but in the same breath we seem blind to vaccine limitations or Covid19 becoming more contagious, perhaps more virulent. Early variations of Covid19 had a 6 day incubation period. Delta? 3.8 days. This simply isn’t the same virus as before. Who can really declare that this pandemic has passed?

I appreciate optimism, I really do. It gives me a refreshing break from my own cup half empty take on things. And we need optimism, we need hope. A healthy faith in ourselves and what we can do, we need that. But, there are limits and there are sound indicators pointing to the markets coming close to one now.

#67 Steven Rowlandson on 07.27.21 at 6:07 am

DELETED (Anti-vax)

#68 Trojan House on 07.27.21 at 8:10 am

#46 Trojan House on 07.26.21 at 9:03 pm

Deleted???

#69 Phylis on 07.27.21 at 8:20 am

#58 Leo Trollstoy on 07.26.21 at 10:34 pm
Cropped Doberman ears for aesthetics
Xxxxxxxxx
Or is it cosmetic?

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 8:23 am

@#61 Keith

Ahhh Fraserview.
I got a Hole in One there a few years back.
Only cost me about $150 in the bar/restaurant as there were only a handful of golfers and only a few wanted a free drink as it wasnt even noon yet….( I offered to buy free meals…no takers)

#71 Dharma Bum on 07.27.21 at 8:40 am

Dobermans:

The Only Kill Their Masters.

https://www.tcm.com/video/200905/they-only-kill-their-masters-original-trailer/

#72 TurnerNation on 07.27.21 at 9:08 am

Re. this “New System” launched March 2020. Not my words. Right away it was named the Forth Turning. Or the Forth Industrial Revolution. What a virus!
In early 2020 the helpful WEF gave us this impact chart: https://tinyurl.com/ehurxck7

— Science in Kanada. Facts – Keep at it and your rights might return.
I guess first (and second, and third) shot offered you is indeed the best one.

https://thepostmillennial.com/quebec-offers-people-3rd-dose-of-vaccine-to-astrazeneca-recipients-who-want-to-travel
“Quebec offering third dose of vaccine to AstraZeneca recipients for non-essential travel
Fully-vaccinated Quebec residents who have gotten the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine can now take a third dose of either Pfizer or Moderna in order to partake in non-essential travel.”

— The Science now changed again.

.Pearson Airport reverses decision to separate arrivals by vaccination status(cp24.com)


–Great news – the Flu has been completely eradicated in Kanada! Or was the testing eradicated??

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2020-2021/weeks-21-24-may-23-june-19-2021.html
“Despite continued monitoring for influenza across Canada, there has been no evidence of community circulation of influenza during the usual period of seasonal influenza activity from mid-November to mid-April.”


– 2 weeks to flatten curve guys, back to normal soon. Is there anything Delta Force cannot do?

.U.S. will not lift travel restrictions, citing Delta variant (reuters.com)

.Sydney covid lockdown could last months as daily cases reach record high
More than 170 daily cases reported, with block of flats sealed off by police, outbreaks affecting two hospitals and further delays to Novavax vaccine (theguardian.com)

.NSW to extend lockdown by four weeks (theaustralian.com.au)

#73 Slava on 07.27.21 at 9:26 am

#203 IHCTD9 on 07.26.21 at 1:03 pm

Not impossible.
———————————————-
Wow can’t believe I had to spell it out. Impossible without significant financial loss, which makes it a non-starter for vast majority of people who, while owing an expensive property are not rich by any standards. They won’t be able to move into equally priced house in equal neighborhood because they will have less money after sale. We already have land transfer tax.

Moreover, taxing someone who lived 3 years in a house an not taxing someone who lived 7 is completely random and unfair.

#74 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 9:26 am

Tesla roars to record profit. It was just a matter of time. Haters gonna hate, but winners gonna win. Elon’s good work has added an awful lot of sweet $ to the Sail Away dynasty.

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.

-Philip K. Dick

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-tsla-2q-earnings-report-2021-11627176617?mod=djemalertNEWS

#75 Sara on 07.27.21 at 9:40 am

#60 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 10:50 pm
#37 Sail Away on 07.26.21 at 7:23 pm
#45 Faron on 07.26.21 at 8:54 pm

Good slogans are not divisive and don’t need to be explained; ‘Black lives matter’ is divisive and unclear. Even Bernie Sanders responded, ‘Of course Black lives matter. All lives matter.’

———-

Sorry, I marvel at the putrid little dung balls that dribble off your fingers sometimes.

How is saying that black lives matter divisive? It’s a positive statement full stop. It’s been made divisive for simpletons like yourself so that you have something to rally against and can thusly be controlled and taken advantage of. Your “cultured”ness is on par with a gallon of cream left to rot in a landfill.

———-

Haha. So trigger.
==============

Haha. Spoken like the true troll that you are. So juvenile.

I’ve got to ask. Now that you are ‘out’ so to speak at this blog, don’t you worry that people who know you in ‘real life’ will see you with your mask off?

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 9:55 am

Sara to Faron’s rescue ….. again……

Time to cut the umbilical cord and let him walk on his own?

Or does your epic loathing for Sail Away supersede rational thought?

#77 IHCTD9 on 07.27.21 at 10:14 am

#73 Slava on 07.27.21 at 9:26 am

…They won’t be able to move into equally priced house in equal neighborhood because they will have less money after sale.
___

Two birds with one stone!

There is no fix that doesn’t suck. Reducing home prices all goes back to making home buyers not want to buy one, through some mechanism(s).

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.27.21 at 10:25 am

#71 Dharma Bum on 07.27.21 at 8:40 am
Dobermans:

The Only Kill Their Masters.

https://www.tcm.com/video/200905/they-only-kill-their-masters-original-trailer/

————————
The Boys of Brazil.
After that movie, no one wanted Doberman(s) anymore.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.27.21 at 10:29 am

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 8:23 am
@#61 Keith

Ahhh Fraserview.
I got a Hole in One there a few years back.
Only cost me about $150 in the bar/restaurant as there were only a handful of golfers and only a few wanted a free drink as it wasnt even noon yet….( I offered to buy free meals…no takers)
————
No homeless people around, that you could have invited?

#80 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 10:31 am

#75 Sara on 07.27.21 at 9:40 am

I’ve got to ask. Now that you are ‘out’ so to speak at this blog, don’t you worry that people who know you in ‘real life’ will see you with your mask off?

———

You mean if someone were to raise a concern with one of my companies or clients about personal differences of opinion they may have with a company officer who has eloquently expressed his position on social media using that wonderful bulwark of Western civilization we know as the freedom to express oneself in a manner that harms no other?

The keystone civil right that I personally served 6 years in the military to help protect?

No, I can’t say that I’m worried. But please feel free to follow up with your vague threat.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.27.21 at 10:39 am

Sailo,
The investigation in the assault on Democracy and the Capitol is finally on its way.
From my perspective, that incident was much worse than the toppling of old statues.
Not sure if they have the power to subpoena Trump?
That would be interesting.

#82 Faron on 07.27.21 at 10:52 am

#80 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 10:31 am
#75 Sara on 07.27.21 at 9:40 am

Seems if he actually didn’t care he wouldn’t post under a handle. And if there was actual eloquence (rather than the continual, grinding button pushing characteristic of a weak man) his positions may stand up. Instead we have a thin gruel of Tucker Carlson and Andy Ngo and the pseudointellectualism that collapses under scrutiny that the right is becoming known for. Add in a touch of blind fanboyism and there you have him.

I’m more curious what his wife thinks. I know my fiance sees wasting time here as fairly detestable. We talk about it as a sign of disquiet. I would venture Sail Away either hides it or catches flak.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 10:55 am

@#79 Ponzies Par Performance
“No homeless people around, that you could have invited?”

+++

Yes they were camped out in the bushes and…as I said earlier……it was before noon….so….typically……they weren’t awake yet.

#84 IHCTD9 on 07.27.21 at 10:57 am

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 9:55 am

Sara to Faron’s rescue ….. again……

Time to cut the umbilical cord and let him walk on his own?

____

I agree. Sara, think of it as an opportunity for personal growth. The next time someone posts something you don’t like – try not replying. Dig deep and take command. No one should be able to so easily push your buttons. Show us who’s boss.

“Any person capable of angering you becomes your master; he can anger you only when you permit yourself to be disturbed by him.”

-Epictetus

#85 Jesse on 07.27.21 at 10:57 am

If there are more quarantines or widespread lockdowns Mr. Market will not be a happy dude. But, sheesh, this would be the fourth episode, and we’ve already survived three.
**********************

I think another wave of lockdowns would cause more damage than all of the above, that would mean roughly 2 years of lockdowns. If that happened, would that be proof the economy is totally fake? How could any nation withstand this kind of debt and just continue to act normal? This is Weimar level insanity… and last time I checked, that didn’t end well. $500 bread incoming!!

#86 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 11:41 am

Faron and Sara hang out at the base of the pyramid, therefore it is hard to take them seriously.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Graham%27s_Hierarchy_of_Disagreement.svg

#87 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 11:48 am

Case in point, attack SA but avoid any comments on the link he posted? I am interested in what you thought of it.

#88 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 11:53 am

#82 Faron on 07.27.21 at 10:52 am

I’m more curious what his wife thinks. I know my fiance sees wasting time here as fairly detestable. We talk about it as a sign of disquiet. I would venture Sail Away either hides it or catches flak.

———

Well. During our daily 2 hour walks, we discuss many things: family, children, dogs, outdoor gear, weather, interests, finances, work, politics, etc. We have a mature and, I venture to say, mutually fulfilling relationship. We avoid stomping around each others’ wheelhouse, understanding that engaged and active people have complex interests they may choose to share or, respectfully, keep to themselves.

We do enjoy chewing over thorny issues and differ significantly in our views, which yields continuous spirited debate. Very pleasurable.

Respect. Support.

#89 Sara on 07.27.21 at 11:54 am

#86 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 11:41 am
Faron and Sara hang out at the base of the pyramid, therefore it is hard to take them seriously.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Graham%27s_Hierarchy_of_Disagreement.svg

==================
Not so, generally speaking. However people like SA hang out there pretty much all the time, and sometimes the only way to deal with such people is to join them there on their level, however briefly.

#90 DON on 07.27.21 at 11:56 am

China appears to be dealing with their own froth of various kinds via regulation trying to deal with inequality under its own umbrella.

They also came out with three key meesages to the US (recent US/China talks)

messages from China were:

“Ideological: US shall not challenge/overthrow China’s communist system;”

Inequality sparking unrest and a foot hold to overthrow? Similiar to what Mao did in the early 1900’s???

Balanced and diversified through the coming rough seas. Getting that feeling of looking over a cliff and not just a financial one. Looks like we are realizing the risks of just in time supply chains and outsourcing production to foreign adversaries.

US pulling out of Afghanistan and now Iraq.
Biden approval rating falling.

Intetesting times indeed.

#91 Sara on 07.27.21 at 11:58 am

#84 IHCTD9 on 07.27.21 at 10:57 am
#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 9:55 am

Sara to Faron’s rescue ….. again……

Time to cut the umbilical cord and let him walk on his own?

____

I agree. Sara, think of it as an opportunity for personal growth. The next time someone posts something you don’t like – try not replying. Dig deep and take command. No one should be able to so easily push your buttons. Show us who’s boss.

“Any person capable of angering you becomes your master; he can anger you only when you permit yourself to be disturbed by him.”

-Epictetus

=======================
Actually, I am not angry at all, nor do I feel that Faron needs any help defending himself.

I simply find it amusing to troll the trolls. Why should they have all the fun?

#92 Sara on 07.27.21 at 12:08 pm

#80 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 10:31 am
#75 Sara on 07.27.21 at 9:40 am

I’ve got to ask. Now that you are ‘out’ so to speak at this blog, don’t you worry that people who know you in ‘real life’ will see you with your mask off?

———

You mean if someone were to raise a concern with one of my companies or clients about personal differences of opinion they may have with a company officer who has eloquently expressed his position on social media using that wonderful bulwark of Western civilization we know as the freedom to express oneself in a manner that harms no other?

The keystone civil right that I personally served 6 years in the military to help protect?

No, I can’t say that I’m worried. But please feel free to follow up with your vague threat.

==================

“Personal differences of opinion” is not what I was referring to. I was referring to the fact that anyone with a decent amount of empathy who is reading your comments on a regular basis, can easily see that you are sorely lacking in empathy and show many signs of serious personality and character dysfunction.

And there was no threat (vague or otherwise) alluded to in my comment to you. Many people who frequent here are aware who you are as you yourself have clarified this for us in the recent past.

Are you sure you want people you deal with outside of this blog to clue into your true nature?

#93 SunShowers on 07.27.21 at 12:18 pm

Imagine going to the doctor with a broken arm, and the doctor telling you “all bones matter.”

#94 catzndogz on 07.27.21 at 12:37 pm

Haha #4 apocalypse, are you sure it doesn’t happen or oct 13 or on oct 15?

#95 Faron on 07.27.21 at 12:58 pm

#89 Sara on 07.27.21 at 11:54 am
#86 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 11:41 am

==================
Not so, generally speaking. However people like SA hang out there pretty much all the time, and sometimes the only way to deal with such people is to join them there on their level, however briefly.

I run up and down the pyramid as a means of training not unlike a stair workout or hill repeats. Thanks for the useful graphic Scaron, please allow me to demonstrate its usefulness:

SA seems to hang at level 3 “responding to tone” as do others who call me “unhinged” and the like. With Garth, it’s always the top 3 levels from me because I respect Garth highly even though I strongly disagree with him 60% of the time. Some, like Nonplused, I’ve given up on so they don’t even get the base-level treatment although I think Nonplused is a nice enough guy and could see camping with him in K-country.

While on the topic of refuting the central point (top level of the pyramid). Recently Sail Away and others were praising Trump for his Operation Warp(ed) Speed. And also denying that he’s responsible for any of the vaccine deniers out there (of which SA seems to have been on the course to being). Anywho. Check out this graphic:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7UBhj4XIAQReja?format=jpg&name=small

Correlation ain’t causation, but this certainly is strong supporting evidence (level 5) that Trump has a chunk of the responsibility to bear.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 1:07 pm

@#92 Pseudo Psychiatrist Sara

“……can easily see that you are sorely lacking in empathy and show many signs of serious personality and character dysfunction….”

+++

Is that just your opinion listening to your equally internet educated pals at the local coffee shop after dropping the kids off at soccer practice?

Or your professional psychiatric opinion backed up by years of schooling, degrees and one to one interviews with patients?

*(Either opinion thus formed by anonymous blog comments and zero personal interviews…would not stand up in a Court of Law).

#97 devore on 07.27.21 at 1:25 pm

#24 Ponzius Pilatus

I agree. We should also charge the overweight for their diabetes and joint treatments, the sedentary for their heart problems, cyclists for their broken bones, computer nerds for their eyeglasses, and oh my, the list is endless! I like the way you think!

#98 Inequity on 07.27.21 at 1:44 pm

#93 SunShowers

Imagine going to the doctor with a broken arm and the doctor telling you “black bones matter”

#99 DON on 07.27.21 at 1:58 pm

Perhaps the Bank of Canada will be forced to stop when the older middle class starts noticing how much less their paycheques get them. It’s the poor and young people that will notice first, but the central bankers obviously don’t care about them. I mean, they say they do, but their actions tell a very different story.

*************
I believe it is already a topic of day to day conversations. People are noticing. A living wage means higher prices. Victoria chamber told businesses to anti up if they want workers.

Uni students can take a lot of courses online in a virtual space meaning they stay at home longer due to the costs of renting etc. Students can always drive in for lab courses etc as Covid proved possible.

But do not fret, inflation is always transitory, just have to wait for your next substantial wage increase to realize it.

There is a possibility that this economic break out could be affected by inflation and less consumerism after this current burst out of freedom. Some people spent a lot of time making their houses more livable in the past 16 months and may elect to enjoy it until they see things returning to what they think is normal. Oops CDC flipping …mandating masks in doors again in the US…did i read that correctly?

#100 the jaguar on 07.27.21 at 2:11 pm

Am I the only one who looks at this dog Vader and sees Batman staring back?

#101 Planetgoofy on 07.27.21 at 2:40 pm

Your right on Garth.
I had major cash before the crash and of the same now. I make more pouring in at the bottom in a year than some in 5 years.

#84 IHCTD9 on 07.27.21 at 10:57 am
#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 9:55 am

Sara to Faron’s rescue ….. again……

Time to cut the umbilical cord and let him walk on his own?
____
I agree. Sara, think of it as an opportunity for personal growth. The next time someone posts something you don’t like – try not replying. Dig deep and take command. No one should be able to so easily push your buttons. Show us who’s boss.
“Any person capable of angering you becomes your master; he can anger you only when you permit yourself to be disturbed by him.”

-Epictetus
——————————————
I was thinking….This is what turns your crank? Hob-knobbing on a blog every day?….There’s more to life.
Time to go watch the grass grow….
Piece out!

#102 Squire on 07.27.21 at 2:48 pm

We may see higher rates sooner than later
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/27/imf-warns-that-inflation-could-prove-to-be-persistent.html

#103 Hass say yhoo on 07.27.21 at 3:33 pm

#37……. “Make America Great again” was used before in a bit of a different form. It was used by a man whom spoke with Hindenburg and tried to convince him to help Hitler become Chancellor of Germany in 1933. He said to Hindenburg, “Hitler will make Germany great”. Hindenburg did not like Hitler and called him an “Upstart”… we all know what happened but then it is possible you may not know. History continues to repeat itself and, history is very important.

#104 Hass say yhoo on 07.27.21 at 3:38 pm

#34… should be #37.

#105 James on 07.27.21 at 3:42 pm

#59 truefacts on 07.26.21 at 10:37 pm

#44 Faron,

I think “Make America Great Again” was a call to reclaim the 1960s where middle class jobs (steel mill, car factory, etc) supported a family with only one parent needing to work (for those old enough to remember when most of the things in their houses were Made in the USA or Canada). That is why it resonated in many of the “rust belt” states which have been in decline for decades.

Shipping all these jobs overseas enriched the companies/shareholders, but not the workers.

Read Jeff Rubin’s book, “The Expendables”

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/617504/the-expendables-by-jeff-rubin/9780735279391
__________________________________________
Our company made a commitment twenty years ago to source everything we could locally in Canada, with North America being a second source. Since few company’s now manufacture chips in NA we have been forced to go overseas with an increase every year due to lack of vendors. Our total percentage of finalized product is currently at 87% locally produced. 13% comes from worldwide suppliers and of that 7% comes from Asian pacific countries. So far zero percent comes from China.

#106 Slanty Semi on 07.27.21 at 3:44 pm

… every pandemic in the history of man (can I still say that?) has been temporary.

Garth, you can choose whatever words you like. They are your words, and up to certain slander/libel limits you can say many things including that.

But consider that words matter. Language informs our culture.

Does using history of man really make our society a better place? Would it really hurt you to be more inclusive by saying the history of humanity ?

That you are going out of your way to add a comment raising doubt about the suitability of the choice of words implies that you already know that this phrasing is passé and no longer cuts muster. It doesn’t really contribute to making for a better society.

You did a similar stunt yesterday, putting the words people experiencing homelessness in scare quotes.
That’s poking fun at the phrase. That’s an attempt to belittle the people who have come up with a more accurate phrase. None of us want them to be permanently without a place to live. So we should use language which reinforces the temporary nature of homelessness.

Those square quotes also don’t contribute to a better Canada.

Words matter. Garth, you can do better… I know its in you!

Don’t quite grasp subtlety, do you? Figures. – Garth

#107 BillyBob on 07.27.21 at 3:45 pm

So here in Prague, we have this Metro station called I. P. Pavlova, named after some obscure Russian physiologist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I._P._Pavlova_(Prague_Metro)

Apparently this guy did these interesting experiments with salivating dogs. Something about classical conditioning where the animals would respond instantly to certain cues every time without fail.

Faron, Sara…you ever hear of this guy? Might be worth a look.

Sail Away sure has your two bells rung, fo sho.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 3:51 pm

@#101 PlanetGoofy
“Time to go watch the grass grow….
Piece out!”

+++

Actually its slow at work this week.
Most of the staff off on well deserved holidays.
I cut the grass at the shop, watered the plants today, cleaned up the warehouse a bit..
Cranked off some quotes.
Received a shipment of material.

I’d rather peace out unless you were talking about a piece of pizza.

#109 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 3:55 pm

#95 Faron on 07.27.21 at 12:58 pm

=====

Level 5 evidence? Useful for forming hypothesis for further study, for sure. Certainly not headline news. Same goes for non-peer reviewed studies.

#110 Sara on 07.27.21 at 3:59 pm

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.21 at 1:07 pm
@#92 Pseudo Psychiatrist Sara

“……can easily see that you are sorely lacking in empathy and show many signs of serious personality and character dysfunction….”

+++

Is that just your opinion listening to your equally internet educated pals at the local coffee shop after dropping the kids off at soccer practice?

Or your professional psychiatric opinion backed up by years of schooling, degrees and one to one interviews with patients?

*(Either opinion thus formed by anonymous blog comments and zero personal interviews…would not stand up in a Court of Law).

======================
It doesn’t take a PHD in psychiatry to see through his endless commenting, that SA exhibits traits high on a sociopathic continuum.

Also, I find it strange that you jump all over me to “cut the umbilical cord and let him [FARON] walk on his own “, yet you never hesitate to jump in to defend you idol Sail Away. A little projection perhaps?

#111 Dr V on 07.27.21 at 4:14 pm

99 DON

“There is a possibility that this economic break out could be affected by inflation and less consumerism after this current burst out of freedom. Some people spent a lot of time making their houses more livable in the past 16 months and may elect to enjoy it until they see things returning to what they think is normal.”

DON I believe this is very possible, even if no home improvements completed. COVID may have convinced a lot of people life can be simpler (and cheaper).

On the other hand…..

#112 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 4:27 pm

#110 Sara on 07.27.21 at 3:59 pm

It doesn’t take a PHD in psychiatry to see through his endless commenting, that SA exhibits traits high on a sociopathic continuum.

Also, I find it strange that you jump all over me to “cut the umbilical cord and let him [FARON] walk on his own “, yet you never hesitate to jump in to defend you idol Sail Away. A little projection perhaps?

——-

By no means is Crowdie defending me. He’s just refuting you. Two different things.

We should put this narcissist, sociopath, psychopath thing to bed once and for all. Using words such as that is a mind-numbingly common logically flawed argument used all the time by unsophisticated debaters to attempt to claim the high moral ground.

The only thing more embarrassing would be if a PhD from a completely unrelated field joined you in these assertions again. Is there no intellectual rigour and honesty anymore?!?

In any case, you’re embarrassing yourself and wading firmly around at the bottom rung of the pyramid. Just stop.

#113 Scaron on 07.27.21 at 4:31 pm

#110 Sara on 07.27.21 at 3:59 pm

FWIW, for the longest time I was convinced that SA and CEF were the same person.

#114 Mattl on 07.27.21 at 5:36 pm

What could he expect from a 60/40, with the fixed component being 26% bonds (govy, corps & provs), 13% preferreds and 1% cash? The ten-year average is 7.1% with 2020 yielding 7.5% and 2019 at 15.2%. Yes, an all-equity portfolio would deliver more, but with increased volatility and risk.

——————————————————-

The problem with 7.1 (which I believe is gross, net fee’s would yield most closer to 6) is the SP500 has returned almost double that over the same period. And each downturn, governments have turned on the money supply to make sure that the recovery was super fast.

So I’m not sure I’m willing to take half the return, for risk that government is more then willing to back. For the long term anyways. I find it hard to believe that over 25 years that 6 net fee’s, and the slightly lower risk that comes with it, is worth the enormous upside an all equity etf portfolio provides.

That said, I read here because I appreciate your dedication to B&D and I think for most it is 100% the right choice. But for those that can manage emotions during a downturn, keep a reasonable amount of cash on hand to contribute when things go on sale, hard to believe the all equity ETF port doesn’t crush the B&D over a long horizon.

#115 Well travelled on 07.27.21 at 7:32 pm

Absolutely beautiful dog. You can see the intelligence in his eyes – not sure I can say that about any of the humans I meet.

#116 Sara on 07.27.21 at 8:07 pm

#112 Sail Away on 07.27.21 at 4:27 pm

In any case, you’re embarrassing yourself and wading firmly around at the bottom rung of the pyramid. Just stop.

===================
I think you are projecting again. If anyone should feel embarrassed with respect to how they comment here, it is you.