Certainty

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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What’s my job as a financial advisor?

There’re the polished marketing-type answers: “to focus unyieldingly on our clients’ long-term financial goals”. Or perhaps “to provide sophisticated wealth management solutions”. Or maybe “to achieve the highest degree of client satisfaction”. These all sound pretty good and I cribbed them directly from other financial advisor websites.

But having been in this industry through countless unexpected market corrections and equally unexpected bounce-backs, at least five outright market crises—the Dot-com bubble, 9/11, the European sovereign debt crisis, the financial crisis and, of course, most recently, the Covid crisis—as well as spectacular and lengthy bull markets, perhaps my most important job is to emphatically remind clients that outcomes aren’t knowable even when they steadfastly believe otherwise. Therefore my constant advice is to never, ever make concentrated wagers.

Emotional investment decisions are dangerous for a variety of reasons, but mainly because emotions strip away our ability to recognize that the world’s complex and results uncertain. A good financial advisor acknowledges both. That’s why a balanced and diversified portfolio is always best.

Unfortunately, there’s great comfort in having an unambiguous outlook. It satisfies an emotional need for decisiveness and certainty even if it’s not supported by facts and potentially costly in the long run. Physician Robert A. Burton expanded on this concept in his book, On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You’re Not, and argued that being certain of one’s beliefs is an emotional response. It’s the brain’s way of protecting itself from dealing with problems that are difficult or uncomfortable to resolve otherwise.

Effectively, our brains are satisfied with a solution that’s ‘good enough’ even if it’s not one based on strong evidence or historical precedent. As Burton described it in an interview, “`that’s right’ is a feeling you get so that you can move on.” Simply put, it’s emotionally easier to quickly arrive at an unequivocal conclusion rather than examine other possible outcomes.

Below are a series of emails I received from clients during the heart of the Covid crisis (mainly March 2020). There’s a commonality:

  • “[We] have come to the decision that we would like to stay on the sidelines in the stock market until the long-term effects of COVID go away.”
  • “[My wife and I] discussed selling our portfolio to move into a totally cash position in the current heightened economic uncertainty. We would like to do this.”
  • “…please sell my holdings and move the proceeds into cash or cash equivalent.”
  • I would like to sell our shares now. Can you please arrange to sell 75% (minimum) of our holdings this am.”
  • “I’ve made the decision to move my equity based investments to cash and wait to re-invest at a later date after COVID 19.”

Naturally, each of the above decisions aims at defensiveness, but that’s not the commonality. The lack of ambiguity is. The outlook in each case is never in doubt: markets are 100% certain to move lower. Markets aren’t certain to do that, of course, and therefore it’s not rational to tilt a portfolio entirely in one direction and leave no room for error. Again, as Burton argues, having a certain outlook is the expeditious (and emotion-driven) path of least resistance, but it’s not necessarily the prudent one.

Dispassionately embracing the reality of uncertainty (or put another way, knowing what you don’t know) makes it easy to remain diversified. Why excessively shift a portfolio for a zig when the market could quite easily zag?

My responses to clients looking to sell everything in March of last year typically went something like this (the below is one of my actual emails):

[A] danger of becoming overly defensive in the short term is that the recovery could be rapid (the incredibly fast market rally in Q1 2019 is perfect evidence of this) and the odds of you missing out on the upside are very high. You don’t need to miss many good market days in order to cripple your performance. We have no idea when these good days will come, which is why it’s best to remain invested and not try to time your defensive positioning.

Here I acknowledge the uncertainty (I truly don’t know when the best market days will occur), but also leverage my financial-industry experience to challenge the certainty of my clients’ own dire market predictions and their all-in defensive wagers. My responsibility is to add some perspective on past market behaviour as well as outline the perils of market timing.

And that may, in fact, ultimately be my job: to concede what I don’t know, but also challenge my clients’ steadfast assumptions. In short, a financial advisor must be a challenger not a follower. As Wharton professor Adam Grant notes in his book, Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don’t Know, which also deals with the dangers of arriving at carved-in-stone conclusions, “we learn more from people who challenge our thought processes than those who affirm our conclusions.”

I may not know precisely what markets will do next, but I’ll be the first to tell my clients that they’re wrong if they think that they do.

And, by the way, we’re hiring again.

Now, if you personally feel that you have what it takes “to focus unyieldingly on our clients’ long-term financial goals”, Turner Investments is hiring. We’re currently looking for a financial planning associate to be based in our Kelowna, BC, office. Not minding forest fire smoke and having or working towards your Certified Financial Planner (CFP) designation would be ideal, but regardless, you can make your case to me directly with a resume and other persuasive arguments @ [email protected].

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.
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About the picture: “I’m sending a picture of Scout, our daughter’s Border Collie and much loved family member from northern BC,” writes Trish. “Scout is always ready for a walk but no walk is complete without at least one ball or one stick to carry on the way. Over her 8 years, she has lost and found again dozens of  her treasures and if there’s room in her mouth for more than one, so much the better! I’m a loyal reader and appreciate your advice and humour every day…thank you for your blog, Garth.”

95 comments ↓

#1 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 07.24.21 at 10:41 am

Hi Doug, great article. I was wondering what percentage of your clients who asked to go into mainly cash during the crash of 2019 listened to your advice and stayed the course after you talked to them?

#2 the Jaguar on 07.24.21 at 10:51 am

From this morning’s NP. A few excerpts around a recent BC ruling:

‘A B.C. Court of Appeal ruling that declares nothing is racist about taxing foreign buyers of real estate in Canada clears the way for federal politicians to propose bold policies to deal with the crisis of housing unaffordability.
B.C. Appeal Court Justice Barbara Fisher has confirmed, in a unanimous decision of the three-judge panel, that the province’s 20 per cent tax on foreign buyers of residential property rose out of the valid “view that foreign nationals significantly contributed to the escalation of prices of housing” in Metro Vancouver.
Foreign buyers continue each year to invest in B.C. residential properties, often the luxury properties.
The most recent data from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program shows that non-residents own five per cent of the housing stock in Metro Vancouver. That figure rises to 7.5 per cent in the city of Vancouver and Richmond. And it jumps again for newly built condos, of which 19 per cent in the city of Vancouver and 24 per cent in Richmond are owned by non-canadians.’

#3 Flop... on 07.24.21 at 10:53 am

Robax, I would have to give up my current two ice cream a day government job.

What is the shortest time someone lasted before getting fired at Turner Investments?

How long do you think I’d last shouting down the phone at clients “No, we’re not moving your account to all cash, you just wait this current downturn out, I’m doing you a favour?

If that doesn’t work I have another successful tried and true one liner.

Don’t get your hair in a dander…

M47BC

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/07/12/the-dander/

#4 Paddy on 07.24.21 at 11:08 am

Another great article Doug. It’s easy to see why these people wanted to pull out and sit on the sidelines, cause every recession “feels different this time”. Your job as a financial advisor is remind people to stay the course and stay balanced….and get a decent return and not lose money….what more could you ask for?

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.21 at 11:13 am

Geez Doug.
You’re a grizzled vet!
How old were you when you started? 15?
A suspender snapping savant?

I’ve had the same thoughts as your clients but decided to hang in there and have been very pleased with the “balanced and diversified” results.

#6 TurnerNation on 07.24.21 at 11:19 am

Re. yesterday’ blog. How’s our first Femminist Prime Minister doing? As we know ‘Distancing’ is the greatest economic weapon ever unleashed.

“Women accounted for most new EI claims in May: StatsCan
There was a 10.5% jump in the number of women getting EI benefits (investmentexecutive.com)
The agency reported that the number of EI recipients jumped by 5.2% in May, with an additional 83,000 workers receiving benefits.
The increase came as “tighter public health measures continued or were introduced in several provinces,” it noted. The rise in the number of EI recipients was entirely due to an 10.5% jump in the number of women getting EI benefits, which represented an increase of 88,000, StatsCan said, while there was little change among men”

———
———
Err any blog dogs in IRELAND Fancy a pint down the pub? No longer, you must be put into the Blockchain.
Every small pleasure, every freedom has come under control of the New System. The Unclean must eat outside as animals. You have no right to be healthy.

https://failtecdn.azureedge.net/failteireland/Guidance-for-Indoor-Hospitality.pdf
▪ Presentation to the responsible person at the controlled entrance of each customer’s Proof of Immunity
▪ Scanning and confirming validity of the vaccination or recovered status of each customer using the EU Digital Covid Certificate Checker or other validation of proofs of immunity that may be prescribed in regulations.
▪ Cross-check the name on the documentation with Photo ID*
*Acceptable forms of ID are Driving Licence, Passport or other photo ids that may be prescribed in regulations
▪ Once confirmed as vaccinated or recovered, a customer is deemed eligible for entry and can move to the next check-in step of contact tracing.
The business must ensure every customer (over 18) has the relevant Proof of Immunity to prove they are fully vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 if they wish to dine indoors. If they believe a customer, who purports to be a minor, is over 18, they should ask for proof of age. Under 18s who are accompanied by a parent/guardian in an indoor setting, currently do not require Proof of Immunity.
Businesses may refuse access where people cannot offer proof of immunity or recovery or cannot demonstrate that their certificate relates to them. If businesses do not operate on this basis, they may be liable for fines or closure…
4. Once Proof of Immunity checks are complete for each person being admitted, details to be recorded for all customers allowed entry: include time of arrival, party size and confirmation that all customers (over 18) have been verified to have immunity.
5. Once checks are complete and data recorded, customers can then be shown to their seats and table.
6. Separately the name and contact number of each customer (over 18) must be taken for contact tracing purposes

#7 Devon Chandler on 07.24.21 at 11:35 am

TurnerNation what are you going to do about it? Being a parrot repeating everything they say just helps them.

#8 Sail Away on 07.24.21 at 11:44 am

To Turner Nation:

Living under constant supervision isn’t that big a deal. Everyone who has dogs already experiences it every day all day.

#9 TurnerNation on 07.24.21 at 11:45 am

Kanada’s Freedom Pass is soon coming:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/23/canadas-vaccine-passport-wont-come-until-december-at-the-earliest-500656
Leaked presentations reveal that Canada won’t have a national Covid-19 vaccine passport system until December 2021, at the earliest. A total lack of national infrastructure, however, means that could be delayed even further

— CDC is ditching the PCR test. In favour of other tests, which can differentiate between CV and the Flu is this the case?

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html/
After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.

CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses.

………………………..

— This won’t be going away any time soon. The contracts have been signed. Macleans mag reported on Kanada’s buys into 2024. It will be a great test of the faithful on will they accept a 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th.

.U.S. Buys 200 Million Covid-19 Vaccines From Pfizer and BioNTech at About $24 a Shot (wsj.com)

.Israel Shifts to Moderna Vaccine as Minister Warns Delta COVID ‘Won’t Disappear Soon (haaretz.com)



— Slow sell on the permanent , rolling lockdowns. How else to meet the Paris Accord karbon targets?

.Texas: Austin, Travis County urge everyone to wear masks and for unvaccinated residents to stay home (texastribune.org)
.Seattle recommends people wear masks in indoor public spaces (king5.com)
.St. Louis city, county to reinstate mask mandate effective Monday (bizjournals.com)
.Louisiana governor Issues New Advisory To Wear A Mask Indoors (wwno.org)
.King County (WA), with 75.6% full vaccination rate, Now Recommends Masks Indoors (publichealthinsider.com)
.Governor Lamont to meet with neighboring states to decide if Connecticut should reinstitute travel restriction(fox61.com)

#10 Yukon Elvis on 07.24.21 at 11:45 am

#2 the Jaguar on 07.24.21 at 10:51 am

The most recent data from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program shows that non-residents own five per cent of the housing stock in Metro Vancouver. That figure rises to 7.5 per cent in the city of Vancouver and Richmond. And it jumps again for newly built condos, of which 19 per cent in the city of Vancouver and 24 per cent in Richmond are owned by non-canadians.’
++++++++++++++++++++

You are just trying to confuse us with facts. We know what you are up to.

#11 Doug Rowat on 07.24.21 at 11:59 am

#1 Dude Looks Like a Lady on 07.24.21 at 10:41 am

Hi Doug, great article. I was wondering what percentage of your clients who asked to go into mainly cash during the crash of 2019 listened to your advice and stayed the course after you talked to them?

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The risk is two-fold, of course: a concentrated all-in wager on the way out and then having to correctly time your way back in.

Fortunately, almost all of our clients are convinced not to sell, but I can tell you of those that do, 0% time it correctly on the way back in.

—Doug

#12 leebow on 07.24.21 at 12:04 pm

The most complete treatise of certainty is, of course, “On certainty” by Ludwig Wittgenstein. If you want to be certain of anything, make sure you do not ever read it.

#13 Tbone on 07.24.21 at 12:06 pm

I watched my portfolio take huge losses some days last year . I stayed fully invested and had my best year ever and that was without employment income.
This year seems it will surpass last year .
I always stayed the course for the last 30 years .
Markets always recovered.

#14 Craig on 07.24.21 at 12:07 pm

TurnerNation, I think you are working for them or you enjoy pain and suffering of others. Hope you like the future.

#15 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.21 at 12:09 pm

#8 Sail Away on 07.24.21 at 11:44 am
To Turner Nation:

Living under constant supervision isn’t that big a deal. Everyone who has dogs already experiences it every day all day.
———————
Or every man who is married.
The iron frying pan is always hovering.

#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.21 at 12:17 pm

#2 the Jaguar on 07.24.21 at 10:51 am
From this morning’s NP. A few excerpts around a recent BC ruling:
—————————-
Reading the National Post in the morning is like getting up on the wrong side of bed.
9 out of 10 doctors don’t recommend it.

#17 Quintilian on 07.24.21 at 12:21 pm

#2 the Jaguar

“And it jumps again for newly built condos, of which 19 per cent in the city of Vancouver and 24 per cent in Richmond are owned by non-canadians.’”
The inevitable collapse of, particularly in BC, of an economy held together with duct tape and debt is the only thing that will lead to some real changes.
Unfortunately, the changes will be made by hot heads who will play on the emotions of those who feel disenfranchised and apportion fault to scapegoats.

#18 Financial Guy on 07.24.21 at 12:25 pm

As someone coming from the financial world, I realized that the fees paid to advisors have nothing to do with picking the right investments and everything to do with stopping clients from selling low and buying high.

#19 Wrk.dover on 07.24.21 at 12:29 pm

If I was a client selling on the way down, any back and forth discussion while the the value of my portfolio declines would not be what I call customer service.

I can understand my not timing the re-purchase correctly, but when things go down like the covid crash and the 08 crash, sell needs to happen faster than buy; on the recovery. One is faster than the other.

#20 Gender is Nonsense on 07.24.21 at 12:34 pm

Wokism: Not All Wokists, But…

Signaling virtuous victimhood as indicators of Dark Triad personalities

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32614222/

#21 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.21 at 12:40 pm

Effectively, our brains are satisfied with a solution that’s ‘good enough’ even if it’s not one based on strong evidence or historical precedent. As Burton described it in an interview, “`that’s right’ is a feeling you get so that you can move on.” Simply put, it’s emotionally easier to quickly arrive at an unequivocal conclusion rather than examine other possible outcomes.
——————————
That make sense.
“So that you can move on”. people like decisive leaders who make quick (gut) decisions.
No one likes to sit in a meeting, where the boss can’t make up his mind.
But, it also depends on culture.
American are usually quick decision makers, whereas Chinese like to take their time.
In Russia, no important decisions are made without the aid of at least 5 vodka shots.

With work places becoming ever more diverse, that is something every leader should be aware of.
Not every one who sees things differently is woke.
They may just have different values.

#22 Joseph R. on 07.24.21 at 12:51 pm

#18 Financial Guy on 07.24.21 at 12:25 pm
As someone coming from the financial world, I realized that the fees paid to advisors have nothing to do with picking the right investments and everything to do with stopping clients from selling low and buying high.

———————————————————-

That’s the argument Investor’s Group (IG) used to justify the Deferred Sales Charges (DSC); to prevent their own clients from panicking and cash out their investments.

#23 Dolce Vita on 07.24.21 at 1:03 pm

#6 TurnerNation

Your Irish Pub Walmart Greeter directions come into effect in France Aug. 1 and Italia Aug. 6.

In Italia after you get your 2nd dose, same day, the Health Ministry sends you a text message with a link, you go there and download your digital EU Green Pass. Takes a minute or two. Or you can tote around the 1 page with a QR Code you get after your 2nd dose as proof of vaccination.

In Italia done to “encourage” the unvaxd to get vaxd, same with the French. Non compliance user/operator = €400 to 1,000. 3 violations, operator is shut down for 1 year.

In Italia used to access enclosed venues, use Google Translate (again, Tampon = Swab or Test not the other):

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/green-pass-ecco-cosa-cambia-e-dove-e-obbligatorio-10-domande-e-risposte-AENxocY

Also, applies to planes, trains and automobiles.

France went 1 step further, €49 for a PCR test when before it was free and the unvaxd would get one when needed for a concert or whatever. Miraculously, the next day 10,000 French signed up for vaxing. Same miracle happening in Italia. Greece doing the same. Israel said the will to.

—————-

US Military in Italia woke up to the Green Pass fact yesterday:

https://www.stripes.com/covid/2021-07-23/new-italy-covid-rules-effects-on-us-military-unclear-2250199.html

Aviano Air Base 15 km from my place had a kanipshit yesterday as well (they need to read the Stars & Stripes):

https://www.aviano.af.mil/Site-Pages/COVID-19-Coronavirus/

#24 Dolce Vita on 07.24.21 at 1:21 pm

Forgot to mention in my last Comment that the US Military in Italia not prepared to go without Real Italian food at Real Italian Restaurants. And prefer to go to Real Italian world heritage sites like Venezia and not the Venetian in Las Vegas.

The PANIC probably started with the US Naples base getting anxious they would be denied Real Pizza that looks and tastes so much better than the abomination N. Americans eat called “pizza”. Pizza in N. America like a freakish, greasy foccacia to us Italians.

It’s 1/2 cuisine and 1/2 ingredients (no growth hormone, Monsanto freak seeds, “selective breeding”, pesticides, genetically engineered veggies and fruit, etc. in the Italian produce chain by Law).

Why when you try and make our recipes in Canada, it NEVER tastes as good as it did in Italia (nor look as good either). Now you know why.

—————

Doug, the US Naples base is HIRING as well:

https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnreurafcent/installations/nsa_naples.html

Kelowna or Napoli and its gorgeous Bay islands of Capri, Ischia, Procida and the Amalfi Coast (and former lava in the living room Roman towns of Ercolano and Pompeii) and the odd ruin at Paestum.

Coin toss?

I don’t think so.

#25 Lead Paint on 07.24.21 at 1:33 pm

“ Unfortunately, there’s great comfort in having an unambiguous outlook. ” it’s statements like this that make me love you guys. Unambiguously.

I was driving down the coast of Italy this morning (greetings Dolce) and flipping through radio stations that made me realize that Garth, while right about a lot of things, has superior judgment on one topic more than any other: Adele.

#26 Lead Paint on 07.24.21 at 1:40 pm

#12 leebow on 07.24.21 at 12:04 pm
The most complete treatise of certainty is, of course, “On certainty” by Ludwig Wittgenstein. If you want to be certain of anything, make sure you do not ever read it.

How can you be so certain?

#27 Joe on 07.24.21 at 2:07 pm

Time is precious

Maybe in future you could talk about how to set up an account for say a son or daughter 10 yrs old that you would throw 50k to 100k into a ETF 500 index fund that they would not touch till 55. Any info on this?

I know at age 10 they would probably not be able to open any type of account, it would have to be in parent name etc. Is the execution of this idea complex or is there a simple procedure.

#28 X on 07.24.21 at 2:09 pm

Make a financial plan and stick to it.

Sticking to it can be the hard part.

#29 Balmuto on 07.24.21 at 2:14 pm

I suspect people who want to go all cash aren’t nervous about a garden variety correction. They’re worried about a crash – like the one last year that was -33% peak to trough. And that it won’t recover quickly this time.

I see that as a low probability event but still not a negligible risk. For these kinds of fat-tail events, there are portfolio insurance strategies like buying deep out-of-the-money put options on the underlying index. Of course there’s a price to pay for that protection and it may not be a suitable strategy for every investor, but as an option I think it beats going to all cash and then trying to time your re-entry point correctly, which I agree is a mug’s game.

#30 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 2:15 pm

We pay thousands every year to have a Pro grow our stash. Why would we suddenly second guess their abilities when a downturn arrives? Fear is a strong emotion, and when the storms come, you “gotta have faith”.

#31 TurnerNation on 07.24.21 at 2:15 pm

#7 Devon Chandler on 07.24.21 at 11:35 am
#14 Craig on 07.24.21 at 12:07 pm

Working for who? I get it your head is spinning from the changes and been barely a year. Same here.
Know your enemy. Get to know their tactics (the Long Game). It’s not I – the tax farm salaryman and former occasional customer at Duke of Devon (it closed for good the same time as Smoking Man’s passing – mid 2020).
Catch ya next blog…

#32 Dr V on 07.24.21 at 2:16 pm

Doug – did anybody phone and say “I’m bringing a cheque, let’s go shopping”?

#33 ElGatoNerodeYVR on 07.24.21 at 2:18 pm

Good luck trying to hire in Kelowna. ,honestly.
95 % of the population there( highly empirical and guesstimated numbers) falls into one of the following categories:
Woke
Broke
Retired
Any combination of the above ofcourse since we already established yesterday that woke leads to broke as SJW’s don’t focus on building wealth while a lot of the retirees lack basic financial knowledge.
Your pool of potential hires is very small ,I am sure eventually you will find the right candidate, just be prepared for an extended process.
You might be better off to buy a house there and entice someone qualified to move there offering free housing or below market rental as a benefit. You can write off the expenses as a business cost and bathe in the capital gains down the road .
In BC Real estate only goes up as the Honest Realtor can vouch and provide supporting data.

#34 Don Guillermo on 07.24.21 at 2:26 pm

I’ve noticed over the years in my Mexican home town an interesting pattern among the expat community (mostly Americans and Canadians). Because Mazatlán is a medium size working class Mexican city the ratio of Gringos to Mexicans is very low compared to the more known areas of Puerto Vallarta, Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Tulum, Cabo, San Miguel etc. This is one reason (there are many others) why we chose it as our spot. Most of the gringos are snowbirds (surprisingly a disproportionate number from Vancouver Island, Seattle and Oregon) but also many others live in Mexico full time.
The pattern I’ve notice relating to today’s blog is the many Americans that sold up and moved south full time during the GFC. They tend to be very frustrated as they soon realized they pulled out too fast and lost a huge chunk of their net worth. Many have commented that they could never afford to buy anything close to the house they sold out of. Summers can be very long, hot and humid on Mexican coasts. The more affluent full-time gringos tend to have a coastal property and something in high altitude areas such as San Miguel for summer. As we know Canada went into and out of the GFC in a very strong financial position compared to most other countries. As of today, I’ve never met a Canadian that panic sold back then. I imagine there may be some somewhere that I just haven’t met.

#35 Counter TurnerNation on 07.24.21 at 2:26 pm

You stopped a bit early on the copy/paste form the cdc notice:

CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season.

Look up the meaning of multiplex. The pcr could always distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 and any other virus, now a second test won’t be required to look for influenza.

#36 Don Guillermo on 07.24.21 at 3:11 pm

#3 Flop… on 07.24.21 at 10:53 am
Robax, I would have to give up my current two ice cream a day government job.

What is the shortest time someone lasted before getting fired at Turner Investments?

How long do you think I’d last shouting down the phone at clients “No, we’re not moving your account to all cash, you just wait this current downturn out, I’m doing you a favour?

If that doesn’t work I have another successful tried and true one liner.

Don’t get your hair in a dander…

M47BC

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/07/12/the-dander/
*************************************
It was kind of fun scanning through the comments on this old post. Some classic smoking man stuff.

#37 the Jaguar on 07.24.21 at 3:33 pm

@#10 Yukon Elvis on 07.24.21 at 11:45 am
You are just trying to confuse us with facts. We know what you are up to.
@#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.21 at 12:17 pm
Reading the National Post in the morning is like getting up on the wrong side of bed.
9 out of 10 doctors don’t recommend it.
@#17 Quintilian on 07.24.21 at 12:21 pm
The inevitable collapse of, particularly in BC, of an economy held together with duct tape and debt is the only thing that will lead to some real changes.
Unfortunately, the changes will be made by hot heads who will play on the emotions of those who feel disenfranchised and apportion fault to scapegoats.
++++++++++++++++++++

I am guilty on all three counts. But I posted the excerpts from the NP article because Garth has sometimes weighed in on the side of FOMO being more responsible for the price escalation issue than foreign buyers. This time it wasn’t a local or realtor’s opinion, but a three-judge panel. I thought that was interesting, and a rebuttal of sorts..

But The Ponze is correct. I read too much. Tomorrow I go to the countryside. Horses, other nice animals. Open spaces and open skies. No reading. Just the quiet of the southern Alberta countryside. I am very grateful for these small blessings.

#38 westcdn on 07.24.21 at 3:45 pm

A belief in their certainty and not admitting failure is are common behaviors among our superiors. My belief is they are afraid to lose face as it would put their station in life at risk.

I would like to wrong…

#39 Love_The_Cottage on 07.24.21 at 4:06 pm

I’ll send in my resume, does your organization encourage WFH ;-)

#40 Comrade on 07.24.21 at 4:26 pm

to TurnerNation

American Academy of Pediatricians nukes recognition of pfizer from their list of the supporters, the following is gone as of a couple days ago.

“The AAP CATCH Program is made possible through the generous support of Pfizer, Inc, with additional support from individual donations through the AAP Friends of Children Fund.”

https://www.aap.org/en-us/advocacy-and-policy/aap-health-initiatives/commpeds/catch/Pages/Our-Supporters.aspx

still cached.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:fDZgIWYTTZAJ:https://www.aap.org/en-us/advocacy-and-policy/aap-health-initiatives/commpeds/catch/Pages/Our-Supporters.aspx&hl=en&gl=ca&strip=0&vwsrc=0

#41 Doug Rowat on 07.24.21 at 4:40 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 2:15 pm

We pay thousands every year to have a Pro grow our stash. Why would we suddenly second guess their abilities when a downturn arrives?

—-

Yes, there may be ‘sunk’ costs with going to cash regardless of what markets subsequently do. Paying for advice only to ignore it being one example and (likely) significant tax implications from selling your securities across the board being another.

—Doug

#42 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 4:50 pm

Truck hunting is not going well Wrk.dover.

So far 4 requests for a tel# so I might call the seller to get a better idea of the condition of the vehicle have gone unanswered.

Maybe used trucks are now expected to be purchased with no conditions just like houses?

#43 baloney Sandwitch on 07.24.21 at 4:52 pm

Great post today, Doug. Will clip and keep it as a reminder to read when “winter comes” as it will for sure.

#44 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 4:57 pm

#36 Don Guillermo on 07.24.21 at 3:11 pm
#3 Flop… on 07.24.21 at 10:53 am
Robax, I would have to give up my current two ice cream a day government job.

What is the shortest time someone lasted before getting fired at Turner Investments?

How long do you think I’d last shouting down the phone at clients “No, we’re not moving your account to all cash, you just wait this current downturn out, I’m doing you a favour?

If that doesn’t work I have another successful tried and true one liner.

Don’t get your hair in a dander…

M47BC

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/07/12/the-dander/
*************************************
It was kind of fun scanning through the comments on this old post. Some classic smoking man stuff.
— –

SM, WUL, Bytor, Boom!, the good old days!

#45 Barb on 07.24.21 at 5:00 pm

“Knowing what you don’t know.”
Will remember that one.

A Kelowna office? Wonderful!
Bring the boss and we’ll buy you fellas a couple of cold ones.

The smoke is not so bad…but steel yourselves to 40C.

#46 Millennial surrealist on 07.24.21 at 5:41 pm

So is the Boomer meltdown over?

#47 Yukon Elvis on 07.24.21 at 5:43 pm

#37 the Jaguar on 07.24.21 at 3:33 pm

But I posted the excerpts from the NP article because Garth has sometimes weighed in on the side of FOMO being more responsible for the price escalation issue than foreign buyers. This time it wasn’t a local or realtor’s opinion, but a three-judge panel. I thought that was interesting, and a rebuttal of sorts..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Even if the foreign ownership numbers were 50% instead of 24% it would still be our own greedy little fomo fault.Please stop confusing us with facts and impartial opinions.
And please pet the horses for me and tell them Elvis says hi.

#48 Linda on 07.24.21 at 5:52 pm

Doug, completely correct in reminding clients of the perils of trying to ‘time’ the market. Ditto ‘all in one’ bets. Have excellent advisors whose experience & adherence to a B&D portfolio position has ensured steady returns despite various dips/financial crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis we did consider selling up; our advisors effectively talked us off the ledge & kept us from making a serious investing error.

#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.24.21 at 6:06 pm

#45 Barb on 07.24.21 at 5:00 pm
“Knowing what you don’t know.”
Will remember that one.
———–
That’s a good old Rumy

Rumsfeld stated: Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. … But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

#50 YVR 60% Crash on 07.24.21 at 6:15 pm

“We’re currently looking for a financial planning associate to be based in our Kelowna, BC, office. ”

We desperately needs your office in YVR but not in “Inferna”, B.C

#51 cuke and tomato picker on 07.24.21 at 6:28 pm

With 100 per cent hind sight you were right however older people enjoy security and sleeping well at night.
Let’s hope things continue to be good but the covid variant is still out there so we may be in for a bumpy
full recovery.

#52 Dolce Vita on 07.24.21 at 6:31 pm

#41 Doug Rowat

True.

————-

And just this once, tote out that 100 yr or so histogram of yours where it shows the market is mostly up 70% of the time.

Forgot to download it last time and I am not going to search the Blog for it. In lieu have you Lord & Master (mine too) or yourself email it to me.

To me one of the most compelling reasons I have ever seen not to panic sell.

1 picture worth a thousand words.

#53 Official News from CDC on 07.24.21 at 7:38 pm

All these bots like DOLCE VITA Please stop THE SANITARY FASCISM AND PROPAGANDA

HAVE U HEARD THE WORD CALLED BIOETHICS

SOME WORDS ARE TOTALLY UNKNOWN TO THE SCHLEPS AND STUPID BOTS..

DOWN WITH BEZOS THE FASCISTS

ROTFLMAO

#54 ogdoad on 07.24.21 at 7:49 pm

:) Good call! Going after the “money’d”, I see.

I’m sure the reasons are purely just carrying the capitalist tradition of creating jobs and making a profit – and gaining footholds ;)

Happy Summer Vaca’s!

Og

#55 Rick O'Shea on 07.24.21 at 7:55 pm

#12 leebow on 07.24.21 at 12:04 pm

The most complete treatise of certainty is, of course, “On certainty” by Ludwig Wittgenstein. If you want to be certain of anything, make sure you do not ever read it.

_______________________________________________

How can i be certain if i never read it? Certainly you must be joking, but perhaps you aren’t.

One thing i can say for sure… I’m certainly confused! Or am I?

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.21 at 8:08 pm

@# 50 YVR Crash

“We desperately needs your office in YVR but not in “Inferna”, B.C”

++++

They have tons of clients in BC and the Lower Brainland.
The internet, zoom consultations, email.
All ways they keep in touch.
All the things that make the Climate People happy.

#57 Vanreal on 07.24.21 at 8:13 pm

Why Kelowna and not Vancouver? I’m actually shocked that Kelowna would be you first office in BC

#58 Pizza this! Not that! on 07.24.21 at 8:15 pm

#24 Dolce Vita on 07.24.21 at 1:21 pm

Didn’t i speak at you a few weeks back? Yes, now i remember. Who could forget a face like that? You’re the guy from Canada, right… But you screwed up royally and couldnt afford to stay here…. But then realized Italia’s charms wear off quickly.. And without any friends to be had there… You spend your waking hours “contributing” to a financial blog back in your homeland!

Hmmm… Homesick perhaps? I thougbt so.

Yes, now I remember you, unfortunately….

#59 Ustabe on 07.24.21 at 8:23 pm

#217 barb on 07.24.21 at 11:55 am

Victimisation is part of the Karpman Drama Triangle. This is were the bully plays the “victim” role in hopes of getting ” rescued ” . This is why we all need strong boundaries. This helps to stop people who are emotionally immature using and abusing others.

Could not agree more.

Further, once you come to terms with how the triangle works you will find that you never get “truth” out of a narcissist. The closest you will ever come is a story that either makes them the victim or the hero, never the villain.

And once you have that it makes certain of the posts on here very interesting reading indeed.

#60 Don Guillermo on 07.24.21 at 9:04 pm

#58 Ustabe on 07.24.21 at 8:23 pm
#217 barb on 07.24.21 at 11:55 am

Victimisation is part of the Karpman Drama Triangle. This is were the bully plays the “victim” role in hopes of getting ” rescued ” . This is why we all need strong boundaries. This helps to stop people who are emotionally immature using and abusing others.

Could not agree more.

Further, once you come to terms with how the triangle works you will find that you never get “truth” out of a narcissist. The closest you will ever come is a story that either makes them the victim or the hero, never the villain.

And once you have that it makes certain of the posts on here very interesting reading indeed
***************************************

Interesting. Had to google it. Seems like we have a text book case as PM.

#61 AmbiVasu on 07.24.21 at 9:14 pm

#27 Joe on 07.24.21 at 2:07 pm

Time is precious
“Maybe in future you could talk about how to set up an account for say a son or daughter 10 yrs old that you would throw 50k to 100k into a ETF 500 index fund that they would not touch till 55. Any info on this?”

Read Warren Buffett’s biography (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett) especially his “Early life and education”. Tells you how to help your 10 year old to succeed.

#62 Male Pale and Not Frail Guy on 07.24.21 at 9:18 pm

#58 Ustabe and Barb

I’m surprised you are so critical of the major groups screaming about being victims for the last 4 years: BLM, Trans, Women, Muslims, the 47 letters that I can’t remember, starts with LGB.

They are definitely bullies, lots of videos of them harassing people, burning things down, rioting.

But I think your psych analysis of narcissism is suspect, I’m pretty sure it’s all about power and money.

#63 mark on 07.24.21 at 9:32 pm

This is what a lot of capable DIYers who have an obsessive interest in investing and spend 2 hours a day on bogleheads don’t get when they scream “oh you can just do it yourself”. They’ve never dealt with any retail clients.

Investing? Possible.
Technical? Doubtful.
Behavioural? LOL.

#64 Doug Rowat on 07.24.21 at 9:37 pm

#56 Vanreal on 07.24.21 at 8:13 pm
Why Kelowna and not Vancouver? I’m actually shocked that Kelowna would be you first office in BC

—-

I know. Kelowna thinks it’s sooo great.

—Doug

#65 Sail Away on 07.24.21 at 10:08 pm

Narcissists? It surely does seem to be the word to bandy about these days- seems every ex- everything is/was a covert narcissist, malignant narcissist, overt narcissist, yada yada.

The type of people who grab hold of a popular buzzword and use it to insult others with whom they disagree?

Non-imaginative would be charitable, bitter and mean-spirited probably closer to the truth.

#66 Upenuff on 07.24.21 at 10:40 pm

Oops, looks like the Aussies just cannot take being tied down during their pandemic crisis….. not looking to joyful down there now….

#67 Nonplused, PhD on 07.24.21 at 10:45 pm

Great article Doug, and an interesting spin on the human thought process.

“Unfortunately, there’s great comfort in having an unambiguous outlook. It satisfies an emotional need for decisiveness and certainty even if it’s not supported by facts and potentially costly in the long run. Physician Robert A. Burton expanded on this concept in his book, On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You’re Not, and argued that being certain of one’s beliefs is an emotional response. It’s the brain’s way of protecting itself from dealing with problems that are difficult or uncomfortable to resolve otherwise.”

Or, as Donald Rumsfeld so eloquently put it, “unknown unknowns”.

I find the topic fascinating. There is so much to know about the world that it is impossible to fit even a fraction of it in to any given brain. That is in large part why even something like the medical profession is split into so many specialties. The guy who works on your heart is not the same guy who works on your liver who is not the same guy who repairs a broken bone.

In fact, the world we live in has gotten so complicated that for most people their experience is not much different than living in Harry Potter’s world. They know how to use a microwave, but they have no idea how it works. Same with their cell phone or computer. Even cars have gotten so darn complicated that most people cannot explain how the ignition timing or fuel injection works. That is a lot different than 20 years ago when most people could understand how a distributor or carburetor worked, but now no car is sold with these things and even most motorcycles don’t have them any more. In fact, it is becoming increasingly more common that cars do not come with a spare tire as auto manufacturers have realized that most of their customers do not know how to change a tire, and they aren’t going to learn either; they will just call a tow truck.

But as interesting as I find the subject of how people get through life knowing so little about the world they inhabit, the subject of how much people assume they know about things they clearly do not is equally fascinating. Just check it out sometime. All you have to do is pay attention. You can do it with your own responses to topics but it is much easier to see in other people.

For example, take socialism and the larger field of economics in general. It seems you can’t even find a bartender who doesn’t have strong opinions on things like the minimum wage or socialism even though they have never set eyes on an economics or history textbook. They do not know that Stalin and Mao each killed way more people than Hitler ever did, and these were their own people when there was no war. They do not know that Hitler was a socialist. They do not know that the government cannot set prices (the minimum wage is “price fixing”) without causing shortages.

And the list goes on and on. Most people are pretty sure that flooding and drought are both caused by climate change, even though flooding and droughts have happened before. They are pretty sure we have to ban plastic straws all the way from the coast in Calgary, even though most of the dangerous plastics in the ocean are fishing equipment (lost nets and such). And they are pretty sure the Canadian flag is divisive, when it represents one of the most inclusive countries in the world. They are pretty sure nuclear power is dangerous whereas the stats show that it is one of the safest ways we have to generate electricity without CO2 emissions. But on the other hand they don’t seem too worried about the world’s nuclear weapons arsenal, which really could kill us all a whole lot faster than climate change. And they are not aware that the arms race is back on, only this time it includes China and the focus is mostly on delivery systems as the actual bombs are already way bigger than they need to be to wipe out all life on the planet. They think electric cars reduce CO2 emissions when they clearly increase them, and will until more emissions free electric generation comes on line. But there is plenty of room to reduce emissions by green electric generation long before we need electric cars. We can take care of the air conditioners first, lots of room for that.

The list goes on and on. It would take a full book to list all the things people think they know that they clearly do not. It would take a book just to identify all your own held beliefs that have no basis in fact.

But yet it works. People get along just fine, unless the misheld belief is really dangerous. The assumptions actually help, because without them people would be paralyzed by indecision. “Paralysis through analysis” as they say. Sometimes it doesn’t matter if you did things for the wrong reason as long as something gets done.

So, when we go back to the market timers, probably both the people who sell and the people who buy have an equally unclear idea of why they do what they do, unless they have insider information. But after all the selling and buying is done the market moves one way or the other and 50% of the people think they are so smart. The other 50% blame something other than themselves. Same as how the fans of the losing team never think the ref was any good. Same as the people who think there is a “system” that can beat VLTs or the lottery.

N. Taleb’s book “Fooled by Randomness” should be required reading for all who think they know something about where the markets will be trading tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year.

As for moving to cash, well, we don’t know where stocks will be tomorrow. But we do know that the value of a dollar only goes down over time, by design. That is why we moved off the gold standard. Gold is scarce, and other than a few bubbles and crashes has only gone up, albeit not as much as productive assets. Over the course of the industrial revolution to today, productive assets have been the clear winners. That is the bet to make. But there are risks to be managed which is why an allocation to a known loser like cash in a 0% environment still make some sense, and why diversification is a must. You can’t bet again if you lost it all on one hand.

#68 Nonplused on 07.24.21 at 11:10 pm

#8 Sail Away on 07.24.21 at 11:44 am
To Turner Nation:

Living under constant supervision isn’t that big a deal. Everyone who has dogs already experiences it every day all day.

—————————————-

When it is time to get busy with my wife, I put the dog and the kids out of the room. Not that the dog cares much what is going on, but it seems weird.

Nothing ever was truly private. Somebody somewhere knew what you were up to, even if it was your mistress. But it seems to me having the government know everything is a mistake.

#69 Nonplused on 07.24.21 at 11:27 pm

PS, more thoughts on the folly of billionaires blasting themselves and others into space.

So Branson’s Virgin airplane type space ship looks like a big ol’ waste of billionaire money that maybe they could tax and solve Nebraska’s homeless problem for one year.

But guess what else? Virgin knows how to build airplanes now. Boeing and Airbus might be getting some competition.

In soccer the fans often wonder why the forwards or midfield might pass it back to the defense, and then the defense passes it back to the goalie. They are “going the wrong way!” after all. But it is the next play that matters.

Remember, Bezos started with an online bookstore.

#70 Nonplused on 07.24.21 at 11:38 pm

#56 Vanreal on 07.24.21 at 8:13 pm
Why Kelowna and not Vancouver? I’m actually shocked that Kelowna would be you first office in BC

————————————-

I’m guessing that retirees in Kelowna have more actual money to invest than homeowners in Vancouver.

#71 Ustabe on 07.24.21 at 11:42 pm

#66 Nonplused, PhD on 07.24.21 at 10:45 pm
…They do not know that Hitler was a socialist…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/05/right-needs-stop-falsely-claiming-that-nazis-were-socialists/

I guess its time I stopped being surprised at some of the stuff you post.

You know who owns the WaPo, right?

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.21 at 11:50 pm

Yo Pinnacle Ponzie.

Mt Baker.
have you checked it out as the sun is going down?
The Glaciers at the peak are showing signs of huge fractures.
Looks like the top glacier may be ready to rock and roll.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.21 at 11:59 pm

@#61 male, pale, not frail.

“the 47 letters that I can’t remember, starts with LGB.”

+++++

“alphabet” people works… since they have absconded with the majority of the alphabet……….

#74 AACI Homedog on 07.25.21 at 12:07 am

Bang on…thanks, Doug…

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.21 at 12:13 am

Ponzie’s perturbed

Mt Bakers glacial decline over the past 40 years

https://whatcomwatch.org/index.php/article/mt-baker-glaciers-are-disappearing/

I think we should lobby the United Sates to rename that colonialist mountain.
It was named after a Lieutenant in the British Navy who first spotted it almost 200 years ago when the Brits were mapping the west coast.

Rapidly Melting Glaciers supplying water to rivers on a major decline…..
Is anyone in Calgary and Edmonton paying attention?

#76 Ace of Space on 07.25.21 at 12:34 am

#39 Love_The_Cottage on 07.24.21 at 4:06 pm

I’ll send in my resume, does your organization encourage WFH ;-)

________________

No, we don’t! Please…

JUST
– –

STAY

—-

the heck AWAY!

#77 Special "K" on 07.25.21 at 12:48 am

#63 Doug Rowat on 07.24.21 at 9:37 pm
#56 Vanreal on 07.24.21 at 8:13 pm
Why Kelowna and not Vancouver? I’m actually shocked that Kelowna would be you first office in BC

—-

I know. Kelowna thinks it’s sooo great.

—Doug

_________________________________

Wow, I was just about to fire up my resume and then I read this most disappointing post. We haven’t even met and you’ve already insulted my Special “K” . The interview is not off to a good start…for you. Too bad, cause I checked all of your boxes… with giant checkmarks!

Good luck, you don’t deserve me and i certainly dont need you or your job! No need to read a book about how certain i am about that!

#78 The joy of steerage on 07.25.21 at 5:54 am

Nonplused on 07.24.21 at 11:10 pm
#8 Sail Away on 07.24.21 at 11:44 am
To Turner Nation:

Living under constant supervision isn’t that big a deal. Everyone who has dogs already experiences it every day all day.

—————————————-

When it is time to get busy with my wife, I put the dog and the kids out of the room. Not that the dog cares much what is going on, but it seems weird.

Nothing ever was truly private. Somebody somewhere knew what you were up to, even if it was your mistress. But it seems to me having the government know everything is a mistake.

The vaccine microchips will record all your carnal pleasures!

#79 Wrk.dover on 07.25.21 at 6:08 am

#42 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 4:50 pm
Truck hunting is not going well Wrk.dover.

https://phoenix.craigslist.org/wvl/cto/d/phoenix-6×6-military-trucks-american/7351530353.html

#80 Dharma Bum on 07.25.21 at 8:02 am

“I may not know precisely what markets will do next, but I’ll be the first to tell my clients that they’re wrong if they think that they do.” – Doug
————————————————————————————–

Very wise, grasshopper!

The Story of the Chinese Farmer:

Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.”

The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.”

The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.”

The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.”

“The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.”

– Alan Watts

#81 Dharma Bum on 07.25.21 at 8:07 am

#77 The joy of steerage

The vaccine microchips will record all your carnal pleasures!
—————————————————————————————

A sort of “Carnal Knowledge”, if you will.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMSzymeAgf4

#82 Dave on 07.25.21 at 8:42 am

Loved this article Doug. Thank you!

#83 IHCTD9 on 07.25.21 at 9:00 am

#78 Wrk.dover on 07.25.21 at 6:08 am
#42 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 4:50 pm

Truck hunting is not going well Wrk.dover.

https://phoenix.craigslist.org/wvl/cto/d/phoenix-6×6-military-trucks-american/7351530353.html
——

Man that is cheap. There’s one on Kijiji right now also with a wrecker for 45 grand. (!)

I like the 2.5 tons. They can be “bobbed” and make a cool truck once they are shortened up:

https://www.guyswithrides.com/2019/08/09/1978-am-general-m35a2-bobbed-deuce/

#84 Don I Kej on 07.25.21 at 10:00 am

Kelowna is often referred to as Surrey on a Lake by lower Mainlanders. I can see the connection.

#85 not so random on 07.25.21 at 10:01 am

#66 Nonplused, PhD on 07.24.21 at 10:45 pm
________________________________

Taleb’s work is brilliant. except sometimes, things aren’t so random. and things are so obviously skewed in one direction that (sigh… accidental submit)

… that it’s quite obvious what is likely to happen next.

yes. long term bias to productive assets priced in currency is always up…

gold vs SP500, it’s funny, that this blog doesn’t recommend gold instead of cash. given that since gold first started trading freely, it’s become an excellent counterweight to stocks. in Sept 2011, gold’s return equaled the SP500’s total return (yes, including dividends). that’s quite amazing when you sit and think about it. yes, since then stocks have done much better, and gold has not, but you know in the future, that will change.

timing is easy btw. you simply have to let the market tell you what it’s going to do, not impose your views on what you think should happen. and really, you don’t need to predict daily what is going to happen.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.21 at 11:08 am

@Special K

The “Surrey on a Lake” is an apt refence.
Strip malls on the main drag. Check.
Billboards on the main drag. Check.
A Hell’s Angels Clubhouse. Check.
Gangs shooting each other outside restaurants. Check.
Sounds like Surrey to me.
What else is there to strive for…?

#87 Don Guillermo on 07.25.21 at 11:12 am

#69 Nonplused on 07.24.21 at 11:38 pm
#56 Vanreal on 07.24.21 at 8:13 pm
Why Kelowna and not Vancouver? I’m actually shocked that Kelowna would be you first office in BC

————————————-

I’m guessing that retirees in Kelowna have more actual money to invest than homeowners in Vancouver.
*********************************
Bingo. Even Alberta’s favorite son Iggy lives there. But just to drag the average wealth numbers down, so does my sister.

#88 NoName on 07.25.21 at 11:37 am

Just because its summer, its all about beer.

https://www.expensivity.com/beer-around-the-world/

#89 Not a Socialist Guy on 07.25.21 at 11:40 am

#70 Ustabe

Hitler was a totalitarian dictator, which requires the state be in control of everything, even if they don’t own it.

So not a pure form of socialism but very close to it.

Corporations were not nationalized but they were forced to produce what the Nazis demanded.

Naziism is a collectivist ideology, where the individual is expected to subordinate themselves to others. In Hitler’s case to the ‘fuhrer’ and ‘the fatherland’.

This is also a central tenet of socialism and communism.

In those ideologies the individual is supposed to subordinate themselves to ‘the greater good’, which is determined, of course, by the all powerful state.

You can label Naziism ‘right wing’ as has been done for decades to try and slander individualists and anti-statists, but anyone who is intellectually honest sees that the totalitarian Nazis, fascists and communists are in fact just slight variations of big government authoritarians.

So called ‘right wing’ individualists, like free market capitalists and (some) libertarians, insist on minimum government, which of course precludes and prevents totalitarians and authoritarians.

To simplify it for you: Fascists, communists, socialists, nazis and every other form of dictatorship all have the same defining characteristics: Big government, the all powerful state, and collectivism.

The alternative is small government with extremely restricted powers and the protection of individual rights over collective ones.

Nobody believes WaPo propaganda anymore BTW.

#90 The republic of oilbertastan on 07.25.21 at 11:41 am

#82 IHCTD9 on 07.25.21 at 9:00 am

#78 Wrk.dover on 07.25.21 at 6:08 am
#42 IHCTD9 on 07.24.21 at 4:50 pm

Truck hunting is not going well Wrk.dover.

https://phoenix.craigslist.org/wvl/cto/d/phoenix-6×6-military-trucks-american/7351530353.html
——

Man that is cheap. There’s one on Kijiji right now also with a wrecker for 45 grand. (!)

I like the 2.5 tons. They can be “bobbed” and make a cool truck once they are shortened up:

https://www.guyswithrides.com/2019/08/09/1978-am-general-m35a2-bobbed-deuce/

…………………

They’re coming for our pickups now….. you’re next!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-pickup-trucks-are-a-plague-on-canadian-streets/

#91 Dr V on 07.25.21 at 11:51 am

70 Ustabe – I found the article interesting for some of
the historical context it provides.

I learned as a youngster not to put faith in how things are labelled by others.

I grow weary of the left-right dichotomy so prevalent on this blog.

#92 Wrk.dover on 07.25.21 at 12:10 pm

#82 IHCTD9 on 07.25.21 at 9:00 am

I was fresh out of Ontario in 78, where I had recently seen a guy launch a boat by towing the trailer down the ramp with one of these.

We were cruising along a horribly pot holed road here in NS, and one of these passed us at twice our speed, by leaving the road and mowing through trees as tall as utility lines.

It was all new to me!

#93 Doug Rowat on 07.25.21 at 12:40 pm

#84 not so random on 07.25.21 at 10:01 am
#66 Nonplused, PhD on 07.24.21 at 10:45 pm
________________________________

Taleb’s work is brilliant. except sometimes, things aren’t so random. and things are so obviously skewed in one direction that (sigh… accidental submit)

… that it’s quite obvious what is likely to happen next…

timing is easy btw. you simply have to let the market tell you what it’s going to do…

—-

Timing is exceptionally difficult. And so few in the comment section want to back up their casual bragging with evidence. And I don’t mean more endless, unverifiable anecdotes of past successes.

—Doug

#94 Sail Away on 07.25.21 at 1:50 pm

#92 Doug Rowat on 07.25.21 at 12:40 pm

Timing is exceptionally difficult. And so few in the comment section want to back up their casual bragging with evidence. And I don’t mean more endless, unverifiable anecdotes of past successes.

—Doug

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Exactly this. Unverifiable means it didn’t happen. Stone’s 16% YTD BD anyone? BS unless verified.

On the other hand, there have been some posters with verifiable significant wins, identifying purchase and sale all in real time, heh heh.

#95 Andrew on 07.26.21 at 2:39 am

I really like this blog.thank you Doug Rowat for writing this wonderful blog.